Narrow-Band Search of Continuous Gravitational-Wave Signals from Crab and Vela Pulsars in Virgo VSR4 Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Adams, T.;

Limits on the fluctuating part of y-type distortion monopole from Planck and SPT results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khatri, Rishi; Sunyaev, Rashid, E-mail: khatri@mpa-garching.mpg.de, E-mail: sunyaev@mpa-garching.mpg.de

2015-08-01

We use the published Planck and SPT cluster catalogs [1,2] and recently published y-distortion maps [3] to put strong observational limits on the contribution of the fluctuating part of the y-type distortions to the y-distortion monopole. Our bounds are 5.4× 10{sup −8} < ( y) < 2.2× 10{sup −6}. Our upper bound is a factor of 6.8 stronger than the currently best upper 95% confidence limit from COBE-FIRAS of ( y) <15× 10{sup −6}. In the standard cosmology, large scale structure is the only source of such distortions and our limits therefore constrain the baryonic physics involved in the formation of the large scale structure. Our lower limit, from themore » detected clusters in the Planck and SPT catalogs, also implies that a Pixie-like experiment should detect the y-distortion monopole at >27-σ. The biggest sources of uncertainty in our upper limit are the monopole offsets between different HFI channel maps that we estimate to be <10{sup −6}.« less

Robustness analysis of non-ordinary Petri nets for flexible assembly systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Fu-Shiung

2010-05-01

Non-ordinary controlled Petri nets (NCPNs) have the advantages to model flexible assembly systems in which multiple identical resources may be required to perform an operation. However, existing studies on NCPNs are still limited. For example, the robustness properties of NCPNs have not been studied. This motivates us to develop an analysis method for NCPNs. Robustness analysis concerns the ability for a system to maintain operation in the presence of uncertainties. It provides an alternative way to analyse a perturbed system without reanalysis. In our previous research, we have analysed the robustness properties of several subclasses of ordinary controlled Petri nets. To study the robustness properties of NCPNs, we augment NCPNs with an uncertainty model, which specifies an upper bound on the uncertainties for each reachable marking. The resulting PN models are called non-ordinary controlled Petri nets with uncertainties (NCPNU). Based on NCPNU, the problem is to characterise the maximal tolerable uncertainties for each reachable marking. The computational complexities to characterise maximal tolerable uncertainties for each reachable marking grow exponentially with the size of the nets. Instead of considering general NCPNU, we limit our scope to a subclass of PN models called non-ordinary controlled flexible assembly Petri net with uncertainties (NCFAPNU) for assembly systems and study its robustness. We will extend the robustness analysis to NCFAPNU. We identify two types of uncertainties under which the liveness of NCFAPNU can be maintained.

An Empirical Determination of the Intergalactic Background Light Using Near-Infrared Deep Galaxy Survey Data Out to 5 Micrometers and the Gamma-Ray Opacity of the Universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scully, Sean T.; Malkan, Matthew A.; Stecker, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

We extend our previous model-independent determination of the intergalactic background light, based purely on galaxy survey data, out to a wavelength of 5 micrometers. Our approach enables us to constrain the range of photon densities, based on the uncertainties from observationally determined luminosity densities and colors. We further determine a 68% confidence upper and lower limit on the opacity of the universe to gamma-rays up to energies of 1.6/(1 + z) terraelectron volts. A comparison of our lower limit redshift-dependent opacity curves to the opacity limits derived from the results of both ground-based air Cerenkov telescope and Fermi-LAT observations of PKS 1424+240 allows us to place a new upper limit on the redshift of this source, independent of IBL modeling.

An empirical determination of the intergalactic background light using near-infrared deep galaxy survey data out to 5 μm and the gamma-ray opacity of the universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scully, Sean T.; Malkan, Matthew A.; Stecker, Floyd W., E-mail: Floyd.W.Stecker@nasa.gov

2014-04-01

We extend our previous model-independent determination of the intergalactic background light, based purely on galaxy survey data, out to a wavelength of 5 μm. Our approach enables us to constrain the range of photon densities, based on the uncertainties from observationally determined luminosity densities and colors. We further determine a 68% confidence upper and lower limit on the opacity of the universe to γ-rays up to energies of 1.6/(1 + z) TeV. A comparison of our lower limit redshift-dependent opacity curves to the opacity limits derived from the results of both ground-based air Cerenkov telescope and Fermi-LAT observations of PKSmore » 1424+240 allows us to place a new upper limit on the redshift of this source, independent of IBL modeling.« less

Establishing Upper Limits for Item Ratings for the Angoff Method: Are Resulting Standards More 'Realistic'?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Jerry B.

This report investigates an area of uncertainty in using the Angoff method for setting standards, namely whether or not a judge's conceptualizations of borderline group performance are realistic. Ratings are usually made with reference to the performance of this hypothetical group, therefore the Angoff method's success is dependent on this point.…

Dual baseline search for muon antineutrino disappearance at 0.1 eV²

DOE PAGES

Cheng, G.; Huelsnitz, W.; Aguilar-Arevalo, A. A.; ...

2012-09-25

The MiniBooNE and SciBooNE collaborations report the results of a joint search for short baseline disappearance of ν¯ μ at Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beamline. The MiniBooNE Cherenkov detector and the SciBooNE tracking detector observe antineutrinos from the same beam, therefore the combined analysis of their data sets serves to partially constrain some of the flux and cross section uncertainties. Uncertainties in the ν μ background were constrained by neutrino flux and cross section measurements performed in both detectors. A likelihood ratio method was used to set a 90% confidence level upper limit on ν¯ μ disappearance that dramatically improves uponmore » prior limits in the Δm²=0.1–100 eV² region.« less

Search for Higgs boson pair production in events with two bottom quarks and two tau leptons in proton-proton collisions at √{ s } = 13TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Ambrogi, F.; Asilar, E.; Bergauer, T.; Brandstetter, J.; Brondolin, E.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Flechl, M.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Grossmann, J.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; König, A.; Krammer, N.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Madlener, T.; Mikulec, I.; Pree, E.; Rabady, D.; Rad, N.; Rohringer, H.; Schieck, J.; Schöfbeck, R.; Spanring, M.; Spitzbart, D.; Strauss, J.; Waltenberger, W.; Wittmann, J.; Wulz, C.-E.; Zarucki, M.; Chekhovsky, V.; Mossolov, V.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; De Wolf, E. A.; Di Croce, D.; Janssen, X.; Lauwers, J.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Abu Zeid, S.; Blekman, F.; D'Hondt, J.; De Bruyn, I.; De Clercq, J.; Deroover, K.; Flouris, G.; Lontkovskyi, D.; Lowette, S.; Moortgat, S.; Moreels, L.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Skovpen, K.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Parijs, I.; Brun, H.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Delannoy, H.; Fasanella, G.; Favart, L.; Goldouzian, R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Karapostoli, G.; Lenzi, T.; Luetic, J.; Maerschalk, T.; Marinov, A.; Randle-conde, A.; Seva, T.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Vannerom, D.; Yonamine, R.; Zenoni, F.; Zhang, F.; Cimmino, A.; Cornelis, T.; Dobur, D.; Fagot, A.; Gul, M.; Khvastunov, I.; Poyraz, D.; Roskas, C.; Salva, S.; Tytgat, M.; Verbeke, W.; Zaganidis, N.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Bondu, O.; Brochet, S.; Bruno, G.; Caudron, A.; De Visscher, S.; Delaere, C.; Delcourt, M.; Francois, B.; Giammanco, A.; Jafari, A.; Komm, M.; Krintiras, G.; Lemaitre, V.; Magitteri, A.; Mertens, A.; Musich, M.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Quertenmont, L.; Vidal Marono, M.; Wertz, S.; Beliy, N.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, F. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Hensel, C.; Moraes, A.; Pol, M. E.; Rebello Teles, P.; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; Da Silveira, G. G.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Huertas Guativa, L. M.; Malbouisson, H.; Melo De Almeida, M.; Mora Herrera, C.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Torres Da Silva De Araujo, F.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Ahuja, S.; Bernardes, C. A.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Romero Abad, D.; Ruiz Vargas, J. C.; Aleksandrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Misheva, M.; Rodozov, M.; Shopova, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Fang, W.; Gao, X.; Ahmad, M.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Chen, Y.; Jiang, C. H.; Leggat, D.; Liao, H.; Liu, Z.; Romeo, F.; Shaheen, S. M.; Spiezia, A.; Tao, J.; Wang, C.; Wang, Z.; Yazgan, E.; Zhang, H.; Zhao, J.; Ban, Y.; Chen, G.; Li, Q.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Xu, Z.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; González Hernández, C. F.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Courbon, B.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Puljak, I.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Sculac, T.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Ferencek, D.; Kadija, K.; Mesic, B.; Starodumov, A.; Susa, T.; Ather, M. W.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Carrera Jarrin, E.; El-khateeb, E.; Elgammal, S.; Mohamed, A.; Dewanjee, R. K.; Kadastik, M.; Perrini, L.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Veelken, C.; Eerola, P.; Pekkanen, J.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Järvinen, T.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Talvitie, J.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Faure, J. L.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Ghosh, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Kucher, I.; Locci, E.; Machet, M.; Malcles, J.; Negro, G.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Sahin, M. Ö.; Titov, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Amendola, C.; Antropov, I.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Cadamuro, L.; Charlot, C.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Jo, M.; Lisniak, S.; Lobanov, A.; Martin Blanco, J.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Ortona, G.; Paganini, P.; Pigard, P.; Regnard, S.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Stahl Leiton, A. G.; Strebler, T.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Zghiche, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Buttignol, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Chanon, N.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Coubez, X.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Jansová, M.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Tonon, N.; Van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Bernet, C.; Boudoul, G.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fay, J.; Finco, L.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Grenier, G.; Ille, B.; Lagarde, F.; Laktineh, I. B.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Pequegnot, A. L.; Perries, S.; Popov, A.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Viret, S.; Toriashvili, T.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Feld, L.; Kiesel, M. K.; Klein, K.; Lipinski, M.; Preuten, M.; Schomakers, C.; Schulz, J.; Verlage, T.; Albert, A.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Endres, M.; Erdmann, M.; Erdweg, S.; Esch, T.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hamer, M.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Knutzen, S.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Millet, P.; Mukherjee, S.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Pook, T.; Radziej, M.; Reithler, H.; Rieger, M.; Scheuch, F.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Flügge, G.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Künsken, A.; Lingemann, J.; Müller, T.; Nehrkorn, A.; Nowack, A.; Pistone, C.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Arndt, T.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Beernaert, K.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Bermúdez Martínez, A.; Bin Anuar, A. A.; Borras, K.; Botta, V.; Campbell, A.; Connor, P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Costanza, F.; Diez Pardos, C.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Eichhorn, T.; Eren, E.; Gallo, E.; Garay Garcia, J.; Geiser, A.; Gizhko, A.; Grados Luyando, J. M.; Grohsjean, A.; Gunnellini, P.; Harb, A.; Hauk, J.; Hempel, M.; Jung, H.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Kasemann, M.; Keaveney, J.; Kleinwort, C.; Korol, I.; Krücker, D.; Lange, W.; Lelek, A.; Lenz, T.; Leonard, J.; Lipka, K.; Lohmann, W.; Mankel, R.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mittag, G.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Ntomari, E.; Pitzl, D.; Placakyte, R.; Raspereza, A.; Roland, B.; Savitskyi, M.; Saxena, P.; Shevchenko, R.; Spannagel, S.; Stefaniuk, N.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Walsh, R.; Wen, Y.; Wichmann, K.; Wissing, C.; Zenaiev, O.; Bein, S.; Blobel, V.; Centis Vignali, M.; Dreyer, T.; Garutti, E.; Gonzalez, D.; Haller, J.; Hinzmann, A.; Hoffmann, M.; Karavdina, A.; Klanner, R.; Kogler, R.; Kovalchuk, N.; Kurz, S.; Lapsien, T.; Marchesini, I.; Marconi, D.; Meyer, M.; Niedziela, M.; Nowatschin, D.; Pantaleo, F.; Peiffer, T.; Perieanu, A.; Scharf, C.; Schleper, P.; Schmidt, A.; Schumann, S.; Schwandt, J.; Sonneveld, J.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Stober, F. M.; Stöver, M.; Tholen, H.; Troendle, D.; Usai, E.; Vanelderen, L.; Vanhoefer, A.; Vormwald, B.; Akbiyik, M.; Barth, C.; Baur, S.; Butz, E.; Caspart, R.; Chwalek, T.; Colombo, F.; De Boer, W.; Dierlamm, A.; Freund, B.; Friese, R.; Giffels, M.; Gilbert, A.; Haitz, D.; Hartmann, F.; Heindl, S. M.; Husemann, U.; Kassel, F.; Kudella, S.; Mildner, H.; Mozer, M. U.; Müller, Th.; Plagge, M.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Schröder, M.; Shvetsov, I.; Sieber, G.; Simonis, H. J.; Ulrich, R.; Wayand, S.; Weber, M.; Weiler, T.; Williamson, S.; Wöhrmann, C.; Wolf, R.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Giakoumopoulou, V. A.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Topsis-Giotis, I.; Kesisoglou, S.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Evangelou, I.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Mallios, S.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Paradas, E.; Strologas, J.; Triantis, F. A.; Csanad, M.; Filipovic, N.; Pasztor, G.; Bencze, G.; Hajdu, C.; Horvath, D.; Hunyadi, Á.; Sikler, F.; Veszpremi, V.; Vesztergombi, G.; Zsigmond, A. J.; Beni, N.; Czellar, S.; Karancsi, J.; Makovec, A.; Molnar, J.; Szillasi, Z.; Bartók, M.; Raics, P.; Trocsanyi, Z. L.; Ujvari, B.; Choudhury, S.; Komaragiri, J. R.; Bahinipati, S.; Bhowmik, S.; Mal, P.; Mandal, K.; Nayak, A.; Sahoo, D. K.; Sahoo, N.; Swain, S. K.; Bansal, S.; Beri, S. B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Bhawandeep, U.; Chawla, R.; Dhingra, N.; Kalsi, A. K.; Kaur, A.; Kaur, M.; Kumar, R.; Kumari, P.; Mehta, A.; Singh, J. B.; Walia, G.; Kumar, Ashok; Shah, Aashaq; Bhardwaj, A.; Chauhan, S.; Choudhary, B. C.; Garg, R. B.; Keshri, S.; Kumar, A.; Malhotra, S.; Naimuddin, M.; Ranjan, K.; Sharma, R.; Sharma, V.; Bhardwaj, R.; Bhattacharya, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Dey, S.; Dutt, S.; Dutta, S.; Ghosh, S.; Majumdar, N.; Modak, A.; Mondal, K.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Nandan, S.; Purohit, A.; Roy, A.; Roy, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Sarkar, S.; Sharan, M.; Thakur, S.; Behera, P. K.; Chudasama, R.; Dutta, D.; Jha, V.; Kumar, V.; Mohanty, A. K.; Netrakanti, P. K.; Pant, L. M.; Shukla, P.; Topkar, A.; Aziz, T.; Dugad, S.; Mahakud, B.; Mitra, S.; Mohanty, G. B.; Sur, N.; Sutar, B.; Banerjee, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Chatterjee, S.; Das, P.; Guchait, M.; Jain, Sa.; Kumar, S.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Mazumdar, K.; Sarkar, T.; Wickramage, N.; Chauhan, S.; Dube, S.; Hegde, V.; Kapoor, A.; Kothekar, K.; Pandey, S.; Rane, A.; Sharma, S.; Chenarani, S.; Eskandari Tadavani, E.; Etesami, S. M.; Khakzad, M.; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M.; Naseri, M.; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S.; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, F.; Safarzadeh, B.; Zeinali, M.; Felcini, M.; Grunewald, M.; Abbrescia, M.; Calabria, C.; Caputo, C.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; Cristella, L.; De Filippis, N.; De Palma, M.; Errico, F.; Fiore, L.; Iaselli, G.; Lezki, S.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; Miniello, G.; My, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pompili, A.; Pugliese, G.; Radogna, R.; Ranieri, A.; Selvaggi, G.; Sharma, A.; Silvestris, L.; Venditti, R.; Verwilligen, P.; Abbiendi, G.; Battilana, C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Braibant-Giacomelli, S.; Campanini, R.; Capiluppi, P.; Castro, A.; Cavallo, F. R.; Chhibra, S. S.; Codispoti, G.; Cuffiani, M.; Dallavalle, G. M.; Fabbri, F.; Fanfani, A.; Fasanella, D.; Giacomelli, P.; Grandi, C.; Guiducci, L.; Marcellini, S.; Masetti, G.; Montanari, A.; Navarria, F. L.; Perrotta, A.; Rossi, A. M.; Rovelli, T.; Siroli, G. P.; Tosi, N.; Albergo, S.; Costa, S.; Di Mattia, A.; Giordano, F.; Potenza, R.; Tricomi, A.; Tuve, C.; Barbagli, G.; Chatterjee, K.; Ciulli, V.; Civinini, C.; D'Alessandro, R.; Focardi, E.; Lenzi, P.; Meschini, M.; Paoletti, S.; Russo, L.; Sguazzoni, G.; Strom, D.; Viliani, L.; Benussi, L.; Bianco, S.; Fabbri, F.; Piccolo, D.; Primavera, F.; Calvelli, V.; Ferro, F.; Robutti, E.; Tosi, S.; Brianza, L.; Brivio, F.; Ciriolo, V.; Dinardo, M. E.; Fiorendi, S.; Gennai, S.; Ghezzi, A.; Govoni, P.; Malberti, M.; Malvezzi, S.; Manzoni, R. A.; Menasce, D.; Moroni, L.; Paganoni, M.; Pauwels, K.; Pedrini, D.; Pigazzini, S.; Ragazzi, S.; Tabarelli de Fatis, T.; Buontempo, S.; Cavallo, N.; Di Guida, S.; Fabozzi, F.; Fienga, F.; Iorio, A. O. M.; Khan, W. A.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Paolucci, P.; Sciacca, C.; Thyssen, F.; Azzi, P.; Bacchetta, N.; Benato, L.; Bisello, D.; Boletti, A.; Carlin, R.; Carvalho Antunes De Oliveira, A.; Dall'Osso, M.; De Castro Manzano, P.; Dorigo, T.; Dosselli, U.; Fantinel, S.; Fanzago, F.; Gozzelino, A.; Lacaprara, S.; Lujan, P.; Margoni, M.; Meneguzzo, A. T.; Pozzobon, N.; Ronchese, P.; Rossin, R.; Simonetto, F.; Torassa, E.; Zanetti, M.; Zotto, P.; Zumerle, G.; Braghieri, A.; Fallavollita, F.; Magnani, A.; Montagna, P.; Ratti, S. P.; Re, V.; Ressegotti, M.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vai, I.; Vitulo, P.; Alunni Solestizi, L.; Biasini, M.; Bilei, G. M.; Cecchi, C.; Ciangottini, D.; Fanò, L.; Lariccia, P.; Leonardi, R.; Manoni, E.; Mantovani, G.; Mariani, V.; Menichelli, M.; Rossi, A.; Santocchia, A.; Spiga, D.; Androsov, K.; Azzurri, P.; Bagliesi, G.; Bernardini, J.; Boccali, T.; Borrello, L.; Castaldi, R.; Ciocci, M. A.; Dell'Orso, R.; Fedi, G.; Giannini, L.; Giassi, A.; Grippo, M. T.; Ligabue, F.; Lomtadze, T.; Manca, E.; Mandorli, G.; Martini, L.; Messineo, A.; Palla, F.; Rizzi, A.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Spagnolo, P.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P. G.; Barone, L.; Cavallari, F.; Cipriani, M.; Del Re, D.; Diemoz, M.; Gelli, S.; Longo, E.; Margaroli, F.; Marzocchi, B.; Meridiani, P.; Organtini, G.; Paramatti, R.; Preiato, F.; Rahatlou, S.; Rovelli, C.; Santanastasio, F.; Amapane, N.; Arcidiacono, R.; Argiro, S.; Arneodo, M.; Bartosik, N.; Bellan, R.; Biino, C.; Cartiglia, N.; Cenna, F.; Costa, M.; Covarelli, R.; Degano, A.; Demaria, N.; Kiani, B.; Mariotti, C.; Maselli, S.; Migliore, E.; Monaco, V.; Monteil, E.; Monteno, M.; Obertino, M. M.; Pacher, L.; Pastrone, N.; Pelliccioni, M.; Pinna Angioni, G. L.; Ravera, F.; Romero, A.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Shchelina, K.; Sola, V.; Solano, A.; Staiano, A.; Traczyk, P.; Belforte, S.; Casarsa, M.; Cossutti, F.; Della Ricca, G.; Zanetti, A.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, G. N.; Kim, M. S.; Lee, J.; Lee, S.; Lee, S. W.; Moon, C. S.; Oh, Y. D.; Sekmen, S.; Son, D. C.; Yang, Y. C.; Lee, A.; Kim, H.; Moon, D. H.; Oh, G.; Brochero Cifuentes, J. A.; Goh, J.; Kim, T. J.; Cho, S.; Choi, S.; Go, Y.; Gyun, D.; Ha, S.; Hong, B.; Jo, Y.; Kim, Y.; Lee, K.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, S.; Lim, J.; Park, S. K.; Roh, Y.; Almond, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, J. S.; Lee, H.; Lee, K.; Nam, K.; Oh, S. B.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Seo, S. h.; Yang, U. K.; Yoo, H. D.; Yu, G. B.; Choi, M.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. H.; Lee, J. S. H.; Park, I. C.; Ryu, G.; Choi, Y.; Hwang, C.; Lee, J.; Yu, I.; Dudenas, V.; Juodagalvis, A.; Vaitkus, J.; Ahmed, I.; Ibrahim, Z. A.; Md Ali, M. A. B.; Mohamad Idris, F.; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T.; Yusli, M. N.; Zolkapli, Z.; Duran-Osuna, M. C.; Castilla-Valdez, H.; De La Cruz-Burelo, E.; Heredia-De La Cruz, I.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Mejia Guisao, J.; Rabadán-Trejo, R. I.; Ramirez-Sanchez, G.; Reyes-Almanza, R.; Sanchez-Hernandez, A.; Carrillo Moreno, S.; Oropeza Barrera, C.; Vazquez Valencia, F.; Pedraza, I.; Salazar Ibarguen, H. A.; Uribe Estrada, C.; Morelos Pineda, A.; Krofcheck, D.; Butler, P. H.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, M.; Hassan, Q.; Hoorani, H. R.; Saddique, A.; Shah, M. A.; Shoaib, M.; Waqas, M.; Bialkowska, H.; Bluj, M.; Boimska, B.; Frueboes, T.; Górski, M.; Kazana, M.; Nawrocki, K.; Romanowska-Rybinska, K.; Szleper, M.; Zalewski, P.; Bunkowski, K.; Byszuk, A.; Doroba, K.; Kalinowski, A.; Konecki, M.; Krolikowski, J.; Misiura, M.; Olszewski, M.; Pyskir, A.; Walczak, M.; Bargassa, P.; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, C.; Calpas, B.; Di Francesco, A.; Faccioli, P.; Gallinaro, M.; Hollar, J.; Leonardo, N.; Lloret Iglesias, L.; Nemallapudi, M. 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P.; Flix, J.; Fouz, M. C.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gonzalez Lopez, O.; Goy Lopez, S.; Hernandez, J. M.; Josa, M. I.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Puerta Pelayo, J.; Quintario Olmeda, A.; Redondo, I.; Romero, L.; Soares, M. S.; Álvarez Fernández, A.; de Trocóniz, J. F.; Missiroli, M.; Moran, D.; Cuevas, J.; Erice, C.; Fernandez Menendez, J.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; González Fernández, J. R.; Palencia Cortezon, E.; Sanchez Cruz, S.; Suárez Andrés, I.; Vischia, P.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Cabrillo, I. J.; Calderon, A.; Chazin Quero, B.; Curras, E.; Fernandez, M.; Garcia-Ferrero, J.; Gomez, G.; Lopez Virto, A.; Marco, J.; Martinez Rivero, C.; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, P.; Matorras, F.; Piedra Gomez, J.; Rodrigo, T.; Ruiz-Jimeno, A.; Scodellaro, L.; Trevisani, N.; Vila, I.; Vilar Cortabitarte, R.; Abbaneo, D.; Auffray, E.; Baillon, P.; Ball, A. 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M.; Maruyama, S.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Merkel, P.; Mrenna, S.; Nahn, S.; O'Dell, V.; Pedro, K.; Prokofyev, O.; Rakness, G.; Ristori, L.; Schneider, B.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Stoynev, S.; Strait, J.; Strobbe, N.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vernieri, C.; Verzocchi, M.; Vidal, R.; Wang, M.; Weber, H. A.; Whitbeck, A.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bortignon, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Carnes, A.; Carver, M.; Curry, D.; Das, S.; Field, R. D.; Furic, I. K.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Kotov, K.; Ma, P.; Matchev, K.; Mei, H.; Mitselmakher, G.; Rank, D.; Sperka, D.; Terentyev, N.; Thomas, L.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.; Yelton, J.; Joshi, Y. R.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Ackert, A.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Kolberg, T.; Martinez, G.; Perry, T.; Prosper, H.; Saha, A.; Santra, A.; Yohay, R.; Baarmand, M. M.; Bhopatkar, V.; Colafranceschi, S.; Hohlmann, M.; Noonan, D.; Roy, T.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Cavanaugh, R.; Chen, X.; Evdokimov, O.; Gerber, C. E.; Hangal, D. A.; Hofman, D. J.; Jung, K.; Kamin, J.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Tonjes, M. B.; Trauger, H.; Varelas, N.; Wang, H.; Wu, Z.; Zhang, J.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Durgut, S.; Gandrajula, R. P.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Snyder, C.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Blumenfeld, B.; Cocoros, A.; Eminizer, N.; Fehling, D.; Feng, L.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Roskes, J.; Sarica, U.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; You, C.; Al-bataineh, A.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Boren, S.; Bowen, J.; Castle, J.; Khalil, S.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Majumder, D.; Mcbrayer, W.; Murray, M.; Royon, C.; Sanders, S.; Schmitz, E.; Stringer, R.; Tapia Takaki, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Maravin, Y.; Mohammadi, A.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Toda, S.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Ferraioli, C.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Jeng, G. Y.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kunkle, J.; Mignerey, A. C.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonwar, S. C.; Abercrombie, D.; Allen, B.; Azzolini, V.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bi, R.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; D'Alfonso, M.; Demiragli, Z.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Hsu, D.; Iiyama, Y.; Innocenti, G. M.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Maier, B.; Marini, A. C.; Mcginn, C.; Mironov, C.; Narayanan, S.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Tatar, K.; Velicanu, D.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Evans, A.; Hansen, P.; Kalafut, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lesko, Z.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Claes, D. R.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Kravchenko, I.; Monroy, J.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Stieger, B.; Alyari, M.; Dolen, J.; Godshalk, A.; Harrington, C.; Iashvili, I.; Nguyen, D.; Parker, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Roozbahani, B.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira De Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wood, D.; Bhattacharya, S.; Charaf, O.; Hahn, K. A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Schmitt, M. H.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Hurtado Anampa, K.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Loukas, N.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Alimena, J.; Antonelli, L.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Francis, B.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Ji, W.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Benaglia, A.; Cooperstein, S.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Higginbotham, S.; Lange, D.; Luo, J.; Marlow, D.; Mei, K.; Ojalvo, I.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Malik, S.; Norberg, S.; Barker, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Folgueras, S.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, A. W.; Khatiwada, A.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Peng, C. C.; Schulte, J. F.; Sun, J.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Cheng, T.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Duh, Y. t.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Han, J.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Lo, K. H.; Tan, P.; Verzetti, M.; Ciesielski, R.; Goulianos, K.; Mesropian, C.; Agapitos, A.; Chou, J. P.; Gershtein, Y.; Gómez Espinosa, T. A.; Halkiadakis, E.; Heindl, M.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Kyriacou, S.; Lath, A.; Montalvo, R.; Nash, K.; Osherson, M.; Saka, H.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Delannoy, A. G.; Foerster, M.; Heideman, J.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; Thapa, K.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Celik, A.; Dalchenko, M.; De Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Gilmore, J.; Huang, T.; Kamon, T.; Mueller, R.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Perniè, L.; Rathjens, D.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Damgov, J.; De Guio, F.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Gurpinar, E.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Peltola, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Wang, Z.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Melo, A.; Ni, H.; Sheldon, P.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Barria, P.; Cox, B.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Neu, C.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Sun, X.; Wang, Y.; Wolfe, E.; Xia, F.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Sturdy, J.; Zaleski, S.; Brodski, M.; Buchanan, J.; Caillol, C.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Hussain, U.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ruggles, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.; CMS Collaboration

2018-03-01

A search for the production of Higgs boson pairs in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9fb-1 collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. Events with one Higgs boson decaying into two bottom quarks and the other decaying into two τ leptons are explored to investigate both resonant and nonresonant production mechanisms. The data are found to be consistent, within uncertainties, with the standard model background predictions. For resonant production, upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the production cross section for Higgs boson pairs as a function of the hypothesized resonance mass and are interpreted in the context of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. For nonresonant production, upper limits on the production cross section constrain the parameter space for anomalous Higgs boson couplings. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level corresponds to about 30 (25) times the prediction of the standard model.

A Northern Sky Survey for Point-like Sources of EeV Neutral Particles with the Telescope Array Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abe, M.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Allen, M.; Anderson, R.; Azuma, R.; Barcikowski, E.; Belz, J. W.; Bergman, D. R.; Blake, S. A.; Cady, R.; Chae, M. J.; Cheon, B. G.; Chiba, J.; Chikawa, M.; Cho, W. R.; Fujii, T.; Fukushima, M.; Goto, T.; Hanlon, W.; Hayashi, Y.; Hayashida, N.; Hibino, K.; Honda, K.; Ikeda, D.; Inoue, N.; Ishii, T.; Ishimori, R.; Ito, H.; Ivanov, D.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kadota, K.; Kakimoto, F.; Kalashev, O.; Kasahara, K.; Kawai, H.; Kawakami, S.; Kawana, S.; Kawata, K.; Kido, E.; Kim, H. B.; Kim, J. H.; Kim, J. H.; Kitamura, S.; Kitamura, Y.; Kuzmin, V.; Kwon, Y. J.; Lan, J.; Lim, S. I.; Lundquist, J. P.; Machida, K.; Martens, K.; Matsuda, T.; Matsuyama, T.; Matthews, J. N.; Minamino, M.; Mukai, K.; Myers, I.; Nagasawa, K.; Nagataki, S.; Nakamura, T.; Nonaka, T.; Nozato, A.; Ogio, S.; Ogura, J.; Ohnishi, M.; Ohoka, H.; Oki, K.; Okuda, T.; Ono, M.; Oshima, A.; Ozawa, S.; Park, I. H.; Pshirkov, M. S.; Rodriguez, D. C.; Rubtsov, G.; Ryu, D.; Sagawa, H.; Sakurai, N.; Sampson, A. L.; Scott, L. M.; Shah, P. D.; Shibata, F.; Shibata, T.; Shimodaira, H.; Shin, B. K.; Smith, J. D.; Sokolsky, P.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Stratton, S. R.; Stroman, T. A.; Suzawa, T.; Takamura, M.; Takeda, M.; Takeishi, R.; Taketa, A.; Takita, M.; Tameda, Y.; Tanaka, H.; Tanaka, K.; Tanaka, M.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tinyakov, P.; Tkachev, I.; Tokuno, H.; Tomida, T.; Troitsky, S.; Tsunesada, Y.; Tsutsumi, K.; Uchihori, Y.; Udo, S.; Urban, F.; Vasiloff, G.; Wong, T.; Yamane, R.; Yamaoka, H.; Yamazaki, K.; Yang, J.; Yashiro, K.; Yoneda, Y.; Yoshida, S.; Yoshii, H.; Zollinger, R.; Zundel, Z.

2015-05-01

We report on the search for steady point-like sources of neutral particles around 1018 eV between 2008 and 2013 May with the scintillator SD of the Telescope Array experiment. We found overall no significant point-like excess above 0.5 EeV in the northern sky. Subsequently, we also searched for coincidence with the Fermi bright Galactic sources. No significant coincidence was found within the statistical uncertainty. Hence, we set an upper limit on the neutron flux that corresponds to an averaged flux of 0.07 km-2 yr-1 for E\\gt 1 EeV in the northern sky at the 95% confidence level. This is the most stringent flux upper limit in a northern sky survey assuming point-like sources. The upper limit at the 95% confidence level on the neutron flux from Cygnus X-3 is also set to 0.2 km-2 yr-1 for E\\gt 0.5 EeV. This is an order of magnitude lower than previous flux measurements.

Upper limit on NUT charge from the observed terrestrial Sagnac effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulbakova, A.; Karimov, R. Kh; Izmailov, R. N.; Nandi, K. K.

2018-06-01

The exact Sagnac delay in the Kerr–Taub–NUT (Newman–Unti–Tamburino) spacetime is derived in the equatorial plane for non-geodesic as well as geodesic circular orbits. The resulting formula, being exact, can be directly applied to motion in the vicinity of any spinning object including black holes but here we are considering only the terrestrial case since observational data are available. The formula reveals that, in the limit of spin , the delay does not vanish. This fact is similar to the non-vanishing of Lense–Thirring precession under even though the two effects originate from different premises. Assuming a reasonable input that the Kerr–Taub–NUT corrections are subsumed in the average residual uncertainty in the measured Sagnac delay, we compute upper limits on the NUT charge n. It is found that the upper limits on n are far larger than the Earth’s gravitational mass, which has not been detected in observations, implying that the Sagnac effect cannot constrain n to smaller values near zero. We find a curious difference between the delays for non-geodesic and geodesic clock orbits and point out its implication for the well known ‘twin paradox’ of special relativity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods aremore » unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively.« less

Details of the 1998 Watt Balance Experiment Determining the Planck Constant

PubMed Central

Steiner, Richard; Newell, David; Williams, Edwin

2005-01-01

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) watt balance experiment completed a determination of Planck constant in 1998 with a relative standard uncertainty of 87 × 10−9 (k = 1), concurrently with an upper limit on the drift rate of the SI kilogram mass standard. A number of other fundamental physical constants with uncertainties dominated by this result are also calculated. This paper focuses on the details of the balance apparatus, the measurement and control procedures, and the reference calibrations. The alignment procedures are also described, as is a novel mutual inductance measurement procedure. The analysis summary discusses the data noise sources and estimates for the Type B uncertainty contributions to the uncertainty budget. Much of this detail, some historical progression, and a few recent findings have not been included in previous papers reporting the results of this experiment. PMID:27308100

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

A Determination of the Intergalactic Redshift Dependent UV-Optical-NIR Photon Density Using Deep Galaxy Survey Data and the Gamma-ray Opacity of the Universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, Floyd W.; Malkan, Matthew A.; Scully, Sean T.

2012-01-01

We calculate the intensity and photon spectrum of the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of redshift using an approach based on observational data obtained in many different wavelength bands from local to deep galaxy surveys. This allows us to obtain an empirical determination of the IBL and to quantify its observationally based uncertainties. Using our results on the IBL, we then place 68% confidence upper and lower limits on the opacity of the universe to gamma-rays, free of the theoretical assumptions that were needed for past calculations. We compare our results with measurements of the extragalactic background light and upper limits obtained from observations made by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.

Extended Importance Sampling for Reliability Analysis under Evidence Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, X. K.; Chen, B.; Zhang, B. Q.

2018-05-01

In early engineering practice, the lack of data and information makes uncertainty difficult to deal with. However, evidence theory has been proposed to handle uncertainty with limited information as an alternative way to traditional probability theory. In this contribution, a simulation-based approach, called ‘Extended importance sampling’, is proposed based on evidence theory to handle problems with epistemic uncertainty. The proposed approach stems from the traditional importance sampling for reliability analysis under probability theory, and is developed to handle the problem with epistemic uncertainty. It first introduces a nominal instrumental probability density function (PDF) for every epistemic uncertainty variable, and thus an ‘equivalent’ reliability problem under probability theory is obtained. Then the samples of these variables are generated in a way of importance sampling. Based on these samples, the plausibility and belief (upper and lower bounds of probability) can be estimated. It is more efficient than direct Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical and engineering examples are given to illustrate the efficiency and feasible of the proposed approach.

Electrical discharge heating of chondrules in the solar nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, Stanley G.; Keil, Klaus; Scott, Edward R. D.

1995-01-01

We present a rudimentary theoretical assessment of electrical discharge heating as a candidate mechanism for the formation of chondrules in the solar nebula. The discharge model combines estimates of the properties of the nebula, a mechanism for terrestrial thunderstorm electrification, and some fundamental electrical properties of gases. Large uncertainties in the model inputs limit these calculations to order-or-magnitude accuracy. Despite the uncertainty, it is possible to estimate an upper limit to the efficiency of nebular discharges at melting millimeter-sized stony objects. We find that electrical arcs analogous to terrestrial lightning could have occurred in the nebula, but that under most conditions these discharges probably could not have melted chondrules. Despite our difficulties, we believe the topic worthy of further investigation and suggest some experiments which could improve our understanding of nebular discharges.

Dual baseline search for muon antineutrino disappearance at 0.1eV2<Δm2<100eV2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, G.; Huelsnitz, W.; Aguilar-Arevalo, A. A.; Alcaraz-Aunion, J. L.; Brice, S. J.; Brown, B. C.; Bugel, L.; Catala-Perez, J.; Church, E. D.; Conrad, J. M.; Dharmapalan, R.; Djurcic, Z.; Dore, U.; Finley, D. A.; Ford, R.; Franke, A. J.; Garcia, F. G.; Garvey, G. T.; Giganti, C.; Gomez-Cadenas, J. J.; Grange, J.; Guzowski, P.; Hanson, A.; Hayato, Y.; Hiraide, K.; Ignarra, C.; Imlay, R.; Johnson, R. A.; Jones, B. J. P.; Jover-Manas, G.; Karagiorgi, G.; Katori, T.; Kobayashi, Y. K.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kubo, H.; Kurimoto, Y.; Louis, W. C.; Loverre, P. F.; Ludovici, L.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Mariani, C.; Marsh, W.; Masuike, S.; Matsuoka, K.; McGary, V. T.; Metcalf, W.; Mills, G. B.; Mirabal, J.; Mitsuka, G.; Miyachi, Y.; Mizugashira, S.; Moore, C. D.; Mousseau, J.; Nakajima, Y.; Nakaya, T.; Napora, R.; Nienaber, P.; Orme, D.; Osmanov, B.; Otani, M.; Pavlovic, Z.; Perevalov, D.; Polly, C. C.; Ray, H.; Roe, B. P.; Russell, A. D.; Sanchez, F.; Shaevitz, M. H.; Shibata, T.-A.; Sorel, M.; Spitz, J.; Stancu, I.; Stefanski, R. J.; Takei, H.; Tanaka, H.-K.; Tanaka, M.; Tayloe, R.; Taylor, I. J.; Tesarek, R. J.; Uchida, Y.; Van de Water, R. G.; Walding, J. J.; Wascko, M. O.; White, D. H.; White, H. B.; Wickremasinghe, D. A.; Yokoyama, M.; Zeller, G. P.; Zimmerman, E. D.

2012-09-01

The MiniBooNE and SciBooNE collaborations report the results of a joint search for short baseline disappearance of ν¯μ at Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beamline. The MiniBooNE Cherenkov detector and the SciBooNE tracking detector observe antineutrinos from the same beam, therefore the combined analysis of their data sets serves to partially constrain some of the flux and cross section uncertainties. Uncertainties in the νμ background were constrained by neutrino flux and cross section measurements performed in both detectors. A likelihood ratio method was used to set a 90% confidence level upper limit on ν¯μ disappearance that dramatically improves upon prior limits in the Δm2=0.1-100eV2 region.

Deriving persistence indicators from regulatory water-sediment studies – opportunities and limitations in OECD 308 data.

PubMed

Honti, Mark; Fenner, Kathrin

2015-05-19

The OECD guideline 308 describes a laboratory test method to assess aerobic and anaerobic transformation of organic chemicals in aquatic sediment systems and is an integral part of tiered testing strategies in different legislative frameworks for the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. The results from experiments carried out according to OECD 308 are generally used to derive persistence indicators for hazard assessment or half-lives for exposure assessment. We used Bayesian parameter estimation and system representations of various complexities to systematically assess opportunities and limitations for estimating these indicators from existing data generated according to OECD 308 for 23 pesticides and pharmaceuticals. We found that there is a disparity between the uncertainty and the conceptual robustness of persistence indicators. Disappearance half-lives are directly extractable with limited uncertainty, but they lump degradation and phase transfer information and are not robust against changes in system geometry. Transformation half-lives are less system-specific but require inverse modeling to extract, resulting in considerable uncertainty. Available data were thus insufficient to derive indicators that had both acceptable robustness and uncertainty, which further supports previously voiced concerns about the usability and efficiency of these costly experiments. Despite the limitations of existing data, we suggest the time until 50% of the parent compound has been transformed in the entire system (DegT(50,system)) could still be a useful indicator of persistence in the upper, partially aerobic sediment layer in the context of PBT assessment. This should, however, be accompanied by a mandatory reporting or full standardization of the geometry of the experimental system. We recommend transformation half-lives determined by inverse modeling to be used as input parameters into fate models for exposure assessment, if due consideration is given to their uncertainty.

Searches for Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars with Science Run 5 LIGO Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Acernese, F.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Alshourbagy, M.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Aoudia, S.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Armandula, H.; Armor, P.; Arun, K. G.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Bauer, Th. S.; Behnke, B.; Beker, M.; Benacquista, M.; Betzwieser, J.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bigotta, S.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Boccara, C.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogue, L.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brummit, A.; Brunet, G.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bullington, A.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Carbognani, F.; Cardenas, L.; Caride, S.; Castaldi, G.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterji, S.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cokelaer, T.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R. C.; Corda, C.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Coulon, J.-P.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dari, A.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; del Prete, M.; Dergachev, V.; Desai, S.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Dueck, J.; Duke, I.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, J. G.; Echols, C.; Edgar, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Espinoza, E.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Faltas, Y.; Fan, Y.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Franzen, A.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fyffe, M.; Galdi, V.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gholami, I.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Goda, K.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Granata, M.; Granata, V.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Gray, M.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grimaldi, F.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guenther, M.; Guidi, G.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G. D.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Hoyland, D.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Huttner, S. H.; Ingram, D. R.; Isogai, T.; Ito, M.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, B.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Kasprzyk, D.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, R.; Khazanov, E.; King, P.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; La Penna, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Lazzarini, A.; Lei, H.; Lei, M.; Leindecker, N.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, C.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Longo, M.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Mackowski, J.-M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Markowitz, J.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McHugh, M.; McIntyre, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; McKenzie, K.; Mehmet, M.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Menzinger, F.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minelli, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Miyakawa, O.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moreau, J.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Morioka, T.; Mors, K.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; MowLowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Muhammad, D.; zur Mühlen, H.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukhopadhyay, H.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Myers, E.; Myers, J.; Nash, T.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Numata, K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Parameshwaraiah, V.; Pardi, S.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Principe, M.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabaste, O.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raics, Z.; Rainer, N.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Rehbein, H.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Rivera, B.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Röver, C.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Russell, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Salemi, F.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Saraf, S.; Sarin, P.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Savov, P.; Scanlan, M.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Sears, B.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Sinha, S.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; van der Sluys, M. V.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Stein, A.; Stein, L. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, K.-X.; Sung, M.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szokoly, G. P.; Talukder, D.; Tang, L.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Terenzi, R.; Thacker, J.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thüring, A.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Trummer, J.; Ugolini, D.; Ulmen, J.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; van der Putten, S.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; van Veggel, A. A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Weidner, A.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, H. R.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Wilmut, I.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Wu, W.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yan, Z.; Yoshida, S.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; Bégin, S.; Corongiu, A.; D'Amico, N.; Freire, P. C. C.; Hessels, J. W. T.; Hobbs, G. B.; Kramer, M.; Lyne, A. G.; Manchester, R. N.; Marshall, F. E.; Middleditch, J.; Possenti, A.; Ransom, S. M.; Stairs, I. H.; Stappers, B.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2010-04-01

We present a search for gravitational waves from 116 known millisecond and young pulsars using data from the fifth science run of the LIGO detectors. For this search, ephemerides overlapping the run period were obtained for all pulsars using radio and X-ray observations. We demonstrate an updated search method that allows for small uncertainties in the pulsar phase parameters to be included in the search. We report no signal detection from any of the targets and therefore interpret our results as upper limits on the gravitational wave signal strength. The most interesting limits are those for young pulsars. We present updated limits on gravitational radiation from the Crab pulsar, where the measured limit is now a factor of 7 below the spin-down limit. This limits the power radiated via gravitational waves to be less than ~2% of the available spin-down power. For the X-ray pulsar J0537 - 6910 we reach the spin-down limit under the assumption that any gravitational wave signal from it stays phase locked to the X-ray pulses over timing glitches, and for pulsars J1913+1011 and J1952+3252 we are only a factor of a few above the spin-down limit. Of the recycled millisecond pulsars, several of the measured upper limits are only about an order of magnitude above their spin-down limits. For these our best (lowest) upper limit on gravitational wave amplitude is 2.3 × 10-26 for J1603 - 7202 and our best (lowest) limit on the inferred pulsar ellipticity is 7.0 × 10-8 for J2124 - 3358.

Large-scale Distribution of Arrival Directions of Cosmic Rays Detected Above 1018 eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre Auger Collaboration; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahlers, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allard, D.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Alves Batista, R.; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Antiči'c, T.; Aramo, C.; Arganda, E.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Badescu, A. M.; Balzer, M.; Barber, K. B.; Barbosa, A. F.; Bardenet, R.; Barroso, S. L. C.; Baughman, B.; Bäuml, J.; Baus, C.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellétoile, A.; Bellido, J. A.; BenZvi, S.; Berat, C.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blanco, F.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Blümer, H.; Boháčová, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Bruijn, R.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buroker, L.; Burton, R. E.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, B.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Catalano, O.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chauvin, J.; Cheng, S. H.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chirinos Diaz, J.; Chudoba, J.; Cilmo, M.; Clay, R. W.; Cocciolo, G.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Contreras, F.; Cook, H.; Cooper, M. J.; Coppens, J.; Cordier, A.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Creusot, A.; Criss, A.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dagoret-Campagne, S.; Dallier, R.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; De Donato, C.; de Jong, S. J.; De La Vega, G.; de Mello Junior, W. J. M.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Souza, V.; de Vries, K. D.; del Peral, L.; del Río, M.; Deligny, O.; Dembinski, H.; Dhital, N.; Di Giulio, C.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diep, P. N.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; Docters, W.; D'Olivo, J. C.; Dong, P. N.; Dorofeev, A.; dos Anjos, J. C.; Dova, M. T.; D'Urso, D.; Dutan, I.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Facal San Luis, P.; Falcke, H.; Fang, K.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filevich, A.; Filipčič, A.; Fliescher, S.; Fracchiolla, C. E.; Fraenkel, E. D.; Fratu, O.; Fröhlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Gaior, R.; Gamarra, R. F.; Gambetta, S.; García, B.; Garcia Roca, S. T.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garilli, G.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gemmeke, H.; Ghia, P. L.; Giller, M.; Gitto, J.; Glass, H.; Gold, M. S.; Golup, G.; Gomez Albarracin, F.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gómez Vitale, P. F.; Gonçalves, P.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Gookin, B.; Gorgi, A.; Gouffon, P.; Grashorn, E.; Grebe, S.; Griffith, N.; Grillo, A. F.; Guardincerri, Y.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Hollon, N.; Holmes, V. C.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovský, M.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Ionita, F.; Italiano, A.; Jansen, S.; Jarne, C.; Jiraskova, S.; Josebachuili, M.; Kadija, K.; Kampert, K. H.; Karhan, P.; Kasper, P.; Katkov, I.; Kégl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Knapp, J.; Koang, D.-H.; Kotera, K.; Krohm, N.; Krömer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuempel, D.; Kulbartz, J. K.; Kunka, N.; La Rosa, G.; Lachaud, C.; LaHurd, D.; Latronico, L.; Lauer, R.; Lautridou, P.; Le Coz, S.; Leão, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; López, R.; Lopez Agüera, A.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lu, L.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Lyberis, H.; Maccarone, M. C.; Macolino, C.; Maldera, S.; Maller, J.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, J.; Marin, V.; Maris, I. C.; Marquez Falcon, H. R.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martinez, H.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Martraire, D.; Masías Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurel, D.; Maurizio, D.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menichetti, E.; Menshikov, A.; Mertsch, P.; Messina, S.; Meurer, C.; Meyhandan, R.; Mi'canovi'c, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Minaya, I. A.; Miramonti, L.; Molina-Bueno, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Monnier Ragaigne, D.; Montanet, F.; Morales, B.; Morello, C.; Moreno, E.; Moreno, J. C.; Mostafá, M.; Moura, C. A.; Muller, M. A.; Müller, G.; Münchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navarro, J. L.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nelles, A.; Neuser, J.; Nhung, P. T.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Nierstenhoefer, N.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Nožka, L.; Oehlschläger, J.; Olinto, A.; Ortiz, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Parente, G.; Parizot, E.; Parra, A.; Pastor, S.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Peķala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Pesce, R.; Petermann, E.; Petrera, S.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, Y.; Pfendner, C.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pieroni, P.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Ponce, V. H.; Pontz, M.; Porcelli, A.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rivera, H.; Rizi, V.; Roberts, J.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Rodriguez, G.; Rodriguez Cabo, I.; Rodriguez Martino, J.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodríguez-Frías, M. D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Rouillé-d'Orfeuil, B.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Rühle, C.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Salesa Greus, F.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, B.; Sarkar, S.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, A.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovancova, J.; Schovánek, P.; Schröder, F.; Schuster, D.; Sciutto, S. J.; Scuderi, M.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Silva Lopez, H. H.; Sima, O.; 'Smiałkowski, A.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Spinka, H.; Squartini, R.; Srivastava, Y. N.; Stanic, S.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Šuša, T.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Szuba, M.; Tapia, A.; Tartare, M.; Taşcău, O.; Tcaciuc, R.; Thao, N. T.; Thomas, D.; Tiffenberg, J.; Timmermans, C.; Tkaczyk, W.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Toma, G.; Tomankova, L.; Tomé, B.; Tonachini, A.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Travnicek, P.; Tridapalli, D. B.; Tristram, G.; Trovato, E.; Tueros, M.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Velzen, S.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Vázquez, J. R.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Videla, M.; Villaseñor, L.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrlich, P.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Werner, F.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Widom, A.; Wieczorek, G.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyńska, B.; Wilczyński, H.; Will, M.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Wommer, M.; Wundheiler, B.; Yamamoto, T.; Yapici, T.; Younk, P.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano Garcia, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zaw, I.; Zepeda, A.; Zhou, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zimbres Silva, M.; Ziolkowski, M.

2012-12-01

A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 1018 eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented. This search is performed as a function of both declination and right ascension in several energy ranges above 1018 eV, and reported in terms of dipolar and quadrupolar coefficients. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Assuming that any cosmic-ray anisotropy is dominated by dipole and quadrupole moments in this energy range, upper limits on their amplitudes are derived. These upper limits allow us to test the origin of cosmic rays above 1018 eV from stationary Galactic sources densely distributed in the Galactic disk and predominantly emitting light particles in all directions.

A DETERMINATION OF THE INTERGALACTIC REDSHIFT-DEPENDENT ULTRAVIOLET-OPTICAL-NIR PHOTON DENSITY USING DEEP GALAXY SURVEY DATA AND THE GAMMA-RAY OPACITY OF THE UNIVERSE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stecker, Floyd W.; Malkan, Matthew A.; Scully, Sean T., E-mail: Floyd.W.Stecker@nasa.gov, E-mail: malkan@astro.ucla.edu, E-mail: scullyst@jmu.edu

2012-12-20

We calculate the intensity and photon spectrum of the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of redshift using an approach based on observational data obtained in many different wavelength bands from local to deep galaxy surveys. This allows us to obtain an empirical determination of the IBL and to quantify its observationally based uncertainties. Using our results on the IBL, we then place 68% confidence upper and lower limits on the opacity of the universe to {gamma}-rays, free of the theoretical assumptions that were needed for past calculations. We compare our results with measurements of the extragalactic background lightmore » and upper limits obtained from observations made by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.« less

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Spectral properties of 441 radio pulsars (Jankowski+, 2018)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowski, F.; van Straten, W.; Keane, E. F.; Bailes, M.; Barr, E. D.; Johnston, S.; Kerr, M.

2018-03-01

We present spectral parameters for 441 radio pulsars. These were obtained from observations centred at 728, 1382 and 3100MHz using the 10-50cm and the 20cm multibeam receiver at the Parkes radio telescope. In particular, we list the pulsar names (J2000), the calibrated, band-integrated flux densities at 728, 1382 and 3100MHz, the spectral classifications, the frequency ranges the spectral classifications were performed over, the spectral indices for pulsars with simple power-law spectra and the robust modulation indices at all three centre frequencies for pulsars of which we have at least six measurement epochs. The flux density uncertainties include scintillation and a systematic contribution, in addition to the statistical uncertainty. Upper limits are reported at the 3σ level and all other uncertainties at the 1σ level. (1 data file).

Search for Higgs boson pair production in events with two bottom quarks and two tau leptons in proton–proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.

A search for the production of Higgs boson pairs in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb -1 collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. Events with one Higgs boson decaying into two bottom quarks and the other decaying into two τ leptons are explored to investigate both resonant and nonresonant production mechanisms. The data are found to be consistent, within uncertainties, with the standard model background predictions. For resonant production, upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the productionmore » cross section for Higgs boson pairs as a function of the hypothesized resonance mass and are interpreted in the context of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. For nonresonant production, upper limits on the production cross section constrain the parameter space for anomalous Higgs boson couplings. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level corresponds to about 30 (25) times the prediction of the standard model.« less

Search for Higgs boson pair production in events with two bottom quarks and two tau leptons in proton–proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

DOE PAGES

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; ...

2018-03-01

A search for the production of Higgs boson pairs in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb -1 collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. Events with one Higgs boson decaying into two bottom quarks and the other decaying into two τ leptons are explored to investigate both resonant and nonresonant production mechanisms. The data are found to be consistent, within uncertainties, with the standard model background predictions. For resonant production, upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the productionmore » cross section for Higgs boson pairs as a function of the hypothesized resonance mass and are interpreted in the context of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. For nonresonant production, upper limits on the production cross section constrain the parameter space for anomalous Higgs boson couplings. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level corresponds to about 30 (25) times the prediction of the standard model.« less

Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Bathymetric Data for the St. Clair River, 1971-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennion, David

2009-01-01

To address questions concerning ongoing geomorphic processes in the St. Clair River, selected bathymetric datasets spanning 36 years were analyzed. Comparisons of recent high-resolution datasets covering the upper river indicate a highly variable, active environment. Although statistical and spatial comparisons of the datasets show that some changes to the channel size and shape have taken place during the study period, uncertainty associated with various survey methods and interpolation processes limit the statistically certain results. The methods used to spatially compare the datasets are sensitive to small variations in position and depth that are within the range of uncertainty associated with the datasets. Characteristics of the data, such as the density of measured points and the range of values surveyed, can also influence the results of spatial comparison. With due consideration of these limitations, apparently active and ongoing areas of elevation change in the river are mapped and discussed.

Recent changes in terrestrial water storage in the Upper Nile Basin: an evaluation of commonly used gridded GRACE products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Taylor, Richard G.; Jones, Darren; Longuevergne, Laurent; Owor, Michael; Tindimugaya, Callist

2017-09-01

GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data monitor large-scale changes in total terrestrial water storage (ΔTWS), providing an invaluable tool where in situ observations are limited. Substantial uncertainty remains, however, in the amplitude of GRACE gravity signals and the disaggregation of TWS into individual terrestrial water stores (e.g. groundwater storage). Here, we test the phase and amplitude of three GRACE ΔTWS signals from five commonly used gridded products (i.e. NASA's GRCTellus: CSR, JPL, GFZ; JPL-Mascons; GRGS GRACE) using in situ data and modelled soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in two sub-basins (LVB: Lake Victoria Basin; LKB: Lake Kyoga Basin) of the Upper Nile Basin. The analysis extends from January 2003 to December 2012, but focuses on a large and accurately observed reduction in ΔTWS of 83 km3 from 2003 to 2006 in the Lake Victoria Basin. We reveal substantial variability in current GRACE products to quantify the reduction of ΔTWS in Lake Victoria that ranges from 80 km3 (JPL-Mascons) to 69 and 31 km3 for GRGS and GRCTellus respectively. Representation of the phase in TWS in the Upper Nile Basin by GRACE products varies but is generally robust with GRGS, JPL-Mascons, and GRCTellus (ensemble mean of CSR, JPL, and GFZ time-series data), explaining 90, 84, and 75 % of the variance respectively in "in situ" or "bottom-up" ΔTWS in the LVB. Resolution of changes in groundwater storage (ΔGWS) from GRACE ΔTWS is greatly constrained by both uncertainty in changes in soil-moisture storage (ΔSMS) modelled by GLDAS LSMs (CLM, NOAH, VIC) and the low annual amplitudes in ΔGWS (e.g. 1.8-4.9 cm) observed in deeply weathered crystalline rocks underlying the Upper Nile Basin. Our study highlights the substantial uncertainty in the amplitude of ΔTWS that can result from different data-processing strategies in commonly used, gridded GRACE products; this uncertainty is disregarded in analyses of ΔTWS and individual stores applying a single GRACE product.

The Fermi Galactic Center GeV Excess and Implications for Dark Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; Ajello, M.

2017-05-01

The region around the Galactic Center (GC) is now well established to be brighter at energies of a few GeV than what is expected from conventional models of diffuse gamma-ray emission and catalogs of known gamma-ray sources. We study the GeV excess using 6.5 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We characterize the uncertainty of the GC excess spectrum and morphology due to uncertainties in cosmic-ray source distributions and propagation, uncertainties in the distribution of interstellar gas in the Milky Way, and uncertainties due to a potential contribution from the Fermi bubbles. We also evaluate uncertainties inmore » the excess properties due to resolved point sources of gamma rays. The GC is of particular interest, as it would be expected to have the brightest signal from annihilation of weakly interacting massive dark matter (DM) particles. However, control regions along the Galactic plane, where a DM signal is not expected, show excesses of similar amplitude relative to the local background. Based on the magnitude of the systematic uncertainties, we conservatively report upper limits for the annihilation cross-section as a function of particle mass and annihilation channel.« less

Diagnosing oceanic nutrient deficiency

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The supply of a range of nutrient elements to surface waters is an important driver of oceanic production and the subsequent linked cycling of the nutrients and carbon. Relative deficiencies of different nutrients with respect to biological requirements, within both surface and internal water masses, can be both a key indicator and driver of the potential for these nutrients to become limiting for the production of new organic material in the upper ocean. The availability of high-quality, full-depth and global-scale datasets on the concentrations of a wide range of both macro- and micro-nutrients produced through the international GEOTRACES programme provides the potential for estimation of multi-element deficiencies at unprecedented scales. Resultant coherent large-scale patterns in diagnosed deficiency can be linked to the interacting physical–chemical–biological processes which drive upper ocean nutrient biogeochemistry. Calculations of ranked deficiencies across multiple elements further highlight important remaining uncertainties in the stoichiometric plasticity of nutrient ratios within oceanic microbial systems and caveats with regards to linkages to upper ocean nutrient limitation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry’. PMID:29035255

Diagnosing oceanic nutrient deficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. Mark

2016-11-01

The supply of a range of nutrient elements to surface waters is an important driver of oceanic production and the subsequent linked cycling of the nutrients and carbon. Relative deficiencies of different nutrients with respect to biological requirements, within both surface and internal water masses, can be both a key indicator and driver of the potential for these nutrients to become limiting for the production of new organic material in the upper ocean. The availability of high-quality, full-depth and global-scale datasets on the concentrations of a wide range of both macro- and micro-nutrients produced through the international GEOTRACES programme provides the potential for estimation of multi-element deficiencies at unprecedented scales. Resultant coherent large-scale patterns in diagnosed deficiency can be linked to the interacting physical-chemical-biological processes which drive upper ocean nutrient biogeochemistry. Calculations of ranked deficiencies across multiple elements further highlight important remaining uncertainties in the stoichiometric plasticity of nutrient ratios within oceanic microbial systems and caveats with regards to linkages to upper ocean nutrient limitation. This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

Constraints on the Origin of Cosmic Rays above 1018 eV from Large-scale Anisotropy Searches in Data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre Auger Collaboration; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahlers, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allard, D.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Allison, P.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Alves Batista, R.; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Antiči'c, T.; Aramo, C.; Arganda, E.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Badescu, A. M.; Balzer, M.; Barber, K. B.; Barbosa, A. F.; Bardenet, R.; Barroso, S. L. C.; Baughman, B.; Bäuml, J.; Baus, C.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellétoile, A.; Bellido, J. A.; BenZvi, S.; Berat, C.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blanco, F.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Blümer, H.; Boháčová, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Bruijn, R.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buroker, L.; Burton, R. E.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, B.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Catalano, O.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chauvin, J.; Cheng, S. H.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chirinos Diaz, J.; Chudoba, J.; Cilmo, M.; Clay, R. W.; Cocciolo, G.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Contreras, F.; Cook, H.; Cooper, M. J.; Coppens, J.; Cordier, A.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Creusot, A.; Criss, A.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dagoret-Campagne, S.; Dallier, R.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; De Donato, C.; de Jong, S. J.; De La Vega, G.; de Mello Junior, W. J. M.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Souza, V.; de Vries, K. D.; del Peral, L.; del Río, M.; Deligny, O.; Dembinski, H.; Dhital, N.; Di Giulio, C.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diep, P. N.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; Docters, W.; D'Olivo, J. C.; Dong, P. N.; Dorofeev, A.; dos Anjos, J. C.; Dova, M. T.; D'Urso, D.; Dutan, I.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Facal San Luis, P.; Falcke, H.; Fang, K.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filevich, A.; Filipčič, A.; Fliescher, S.; Fracchiolla, C. E.; Fraenkel, E. D.; Fratu, O.; Fröhlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Gaior, R.; Gamarra, R. F.; Gambetta, S.; García, B.; Garcia Roca, S. T.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garilli, G.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gemmeke, H.; Ghia, P. L.; Giller, M.; Gitto, J.; Glass, H.; Gold, M. S.; Golup, G.; Gomez Albarracin, F.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gómez Vitale, P. F.; Gonçalves, P.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Gookin, B.; Gorgi, A.; Gouffon, P.; Grashorn, E.; Grebe, S.; Griffith, N.; Grillo, A. F.; Guardincerri, Y.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Hollon, N.; Holmes, V. C.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovský, M.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Ionita, F.; Italiano, A.; Jansen, S.; Jarne, C.; Jiraskova, S.; Josebachuili, M.; Kadija, K.; Kampert, K. H.; Karhan, P.; Kasper, P.; Katkov, I.; Kégl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Knapp, J.; Koang, D.-H.; Kotera, K.; Krohm, N.; Krömer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuempel, D.; Kulbartz, J. K.; Kunka, N.; La Rosa, G.; Lachaud, C.; LaHurd, D.; Latronico, L.; Lauer, R.; Lautridou, P.; Le Coz, S.; Leão, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; López, R.; Lopez Agüera, A.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lu, L.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Lyberis, H.; Maccarone, M. C.; Macolino, C.; Maldera, S.; Maller, J.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, J.; Marin, V.; Maris, I. C.; Marquez Falcon, H. R.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martinez, H.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Martraire, D.; Masías Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurel, D.; Maurizio, D.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menichetti, E.; Menshikov, A.; Mertsch, P.; Messina, S.; Meurer, C.; Meyhandan, R.; Mi'canovi'c, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Minaya, I. A.; Miramonti, L.; Molina-Bueno, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Monnier Ragaigne, D.; Montanet, F.; Morales, B.; Morello, C.; Moreno, E.; Moreno, J. C.; Mostafá, M.; Moura, C. A.; Muller, M. A.; Müller, G.; Münchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navarro, J. L.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nelles, A.; Neuser, J.; Nhung, P. T.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Nierstenhoefer, N.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Nožka, L.; Oehlschläger, J.; Olinto, A.; Ortiz, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Parente, G.; Parizot, E.; Parra, A.; Pastor, S.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Peķala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Pesce, R.; Petermann, E.; Petrera, S.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, Y.; Pfendner, C.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pieroni, P.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Ponce, V. H.; Pontz, M.; Porcelli, A.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rivera, H.; Rizi, V.; Roberts, J.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Rodriguez, G.; Rodriguez Cabo, I.; Rodriguez Martino, J.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodríguez-Frías, M. D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Rouillé-d'Orfeuil, B.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Rühle, C.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Salesa Greus, F.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, B.; Sarkar, S.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, A.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovancova, J.; Schovánek, P.; Schröder, F.; Schuster, D.; Sciutto, S. J.; Scuderi, M.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Silva Lopez, H. H.; Sima, O.; 'Smiałkowski, A.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Spinka, H.; Squartini, R.; Srivastava, Y. N.; Stanic, S.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Šuša, T.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Szuba, M.; Tapia, A.; Tartare, M.; Taşcău, O.; Tcaciuc, R.; Thao, N. T.; Thomas, D.; Tiffenberg, J.; Timmermans, C.; Tkaczyk, W.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Toma, G.; Tomankova, L.; Tomé, B.; Tonachini, A.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Travnicek, P.; Tridapalli, D. B.; Tristram, G.; Trovato, E.; Tueros, M.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Velzen, S.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Vázquez, J. R.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Videla, M.; Villaseñor, L.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrlich, P.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Werner, F.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Widom, A.; Wieczorek, G.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyńska, B.; Wilczyński, H.; Will, M.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Wommer, M.; Wundheiler, B.; Yamamoto, T.; Yapici, T.; Younk, P.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano Garcia, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zaw, I.; Zepeda, A.; Zhou, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zimbres Silva, M.; Ziolkowski, M.

2013-01-01

A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 1018 eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is reported. For the first time, these large-scale anisotropy searches are performed as a function of both the right ascension and the declination and expressed in terms of dipole and quadrupole moments. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Upper limits on dipole and quadrupole amplitudes are derived under the hypothesis that any cosmic ray anisotropy is dominated by such moments in this energy range. These upper limits provide constraints on the production of cosmic rays above 1018 eV, since they allow us to challenge an origin from stationary galactic sources densely distributed in the galactic disk and emitting predominantly light particles in all directions.

Planning and Prototyping for a Storage Ring Measurement of the Proton Electric Dipole Moment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Talman, Richard

2015-07-01

Electron and proton EDM's can be measured in "frozen spin" (with the beam polarization always parallel to the orbit, for example) storage rings. For electrons the "magic" kinetic energy at which the beam can be frozen is 14.5 MeV. For protons the magic kinetic energy is 230 MeV. The currently measured upper limit for the electron EDM is much smaller than the proton EDM upper limit, which is very poorly known. Nevertheless, because the storage ring will be an order of magnitude cheaper, a sensible plan is to first build an all-electric electron storage ring as a prototype. Such anmore » electron ring was successfully built at Brookhaven, in 1954, as a prototype for their AGS ring. This leaves little uncertainty concerning the cost and performance of such a ring. (This is documentedin one of the Physical Review papers mentioned above.)« less

Compensator-based 6-DOF control for probe asteroid-orbital-frame hovering with actuator limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaosong; Zhang, Peng; Liu, Keping; Li, Yuanchun

2016-05-01

This paper is concerned with 6-DOF control of a probe hovering in the orbital frame of an asteroid. Considering the requirements of the scientific instruments pointing direction and orbital position in practical missions, the coordinate control of relative attitude and orbit between the probe and target asteroid is imperative. A 6-DOF dynamic equation describing the relative translational and rotational motion of a probe in the asteroid's orbital frame is derived, taking the irregular gravitation, model and parameter uncertainties and external disturbances into account. An adaptive sliding mode controller is employed to guarantee the convergence of the state error, where the adaptation law is used to estimate the unknown upper bound of system uncertainty. Then the controller is improved to deal with the practical problem of actuator limitations by introducing a RBF neural network compensator, which is used to approximate the difference between the actual control with magnitude constraint and the designed nominal control law. The closed-loop system is proved to be asymptotically stable through the Lyapunov stability analysis. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the performances of the preceding designed control laws. Simulation results demonstrate the validity of the control scheme using the compensator-based adaptive sliding mode control law in the presence of actuator limitations, system uncertainty and external disturbance.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

PubMed Central

Nonaka, Masami; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sasaki, Hideharu; Taguchi, Bunmei; Nakamura, Hisashi

2016-01-01

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble “hindcast” experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems. PMID:26831954

Constraining neutrino mass from neutrinoless double beta decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dev, P. S. Bhupal; Goswami, Srubabati; Mitra, Manimala; Rodejohann, Werner

2013-11-01

We study the implications of the recent results on neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ) from GERDA-I (Ge76) and KamLAND-Zen+EXO-200 (Xe136) and the upper limit on the sum of light neutrino masses from Planck. We show that the upper limits on the effective neutrino mass from Xe136 are stronger than those from Ge76 for most of the recent calculations of the nuclear matrix elements (NMEs). We also analyze the compatibility of these limits with the claimed observation in Ge76 and show that while the updated claim value is still compatible with the recent GERDA limit as well as the individual Xe136 limits for a few NME calculations, it is inconsistent with the combined Xe136 limit for all but one NME. Imposing the most stringent limit from Planck, we find that the canonical light neutrino contribution cannot saturate the current limit, irrespective of the NME uncertainties. Saturation can be reached by inclusion of the right-handed (RH) neutrino contributions in TeV-scale left-right symmetric models with type-II seesaw. This imposes a lower limit on the lightest neutrino mass. Using the 0νββ bounds, we also derive correlated constraints in the RH sector, complimentary to those from direct searches at the LHC.

Limits, discovery and cut optimization for a Poisson process with uncertainty in background and signal efficiency: TRolke 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundberg, J.; Conrad, J.; Rolke, W.; Lopez, A.

2010-03-01

A C++ class was written for the calculation of frequentist confidence intervals using the profile likelihood method. Seven combinations of Binomial, Gaussian, Poissonian and Binomial uncertainties are implemented. The package provides routines for the calculation of upper and lower limits, sensitivity and related properties. It also supports hypothesis tests which take uncertainties into account. It can be used in compiled C++ code, in Python or interactively via the ROOT analysis framework. Program summaryProgram title: TRolke version 2.0 Catalogue identifier: AEFT_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEFT_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: MIT license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3431 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 21 789 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: ISO C++. Computer: Unix, GNU/Linux, Mac. Operating system: Linux 2.6 (Scientific Linux 4 and 5, Ubuntu 8.10), Darwin 9.0 (Mac-OS X 10.5.8). RAM:˜20 MB Classification: 14.13. External routines: ROOT ( http://root.cern.ch/drupal/) Nature of problem: The problem is to calculate a frequentist confidence interval on the parameter of a Poisson process with statistical or systematic uncertainties in signal efficiency or background. Solution method: Profile likelihood method, Analytical Running time:<10 seconds per extracted limit.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TANK 18F FLOOR SAMPLE RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.

2010-09-02

Representative sampling has been completed for characterization of the residual material on the floor of Tank 18F as per the statistical sampling plan developed by Shine [1]. Samples from eight locations have been obtained from the tank floor and two of the samples were archived as a contingency. Six samples, referred to in this report as the current scrape samples, have been submitted to and analyzed by SRNL [2]. This report contains the statistical analysis of the floor sample analytical results to determine if further data are needed to reduce uncertainty. Included are comparisons with the prior Mantis samples resultsmore » [3] to determine if they can be pooled with the current scrape samples to estimate the upper 95% confidence limits (UCL{sub 95%}) for concentration. Statistical analysis revealed that the Mantis and current scrape sample results are not compatible. Therefore, the Mantis sample results were not used to support the quantification of analytes in the residual material. Significant spatial variability among the current sample results was not found. Constituent concentrations were similar between the North and South hemispheres as well as between the inner and outer regions of the tank floor. The current scrape sample results from all six samples fall within their 3-sigma limits. In view of the results from numerous statistical tests, the data were pooled from all six current scrape samples. As such, an adequate sample size was provided for quantification of the residual material on the floor of Tank 18F. The uncertainty is quantified in this report by an upper 95% confidence limit (UCL{sub 95%}) on each analyte concentration. The uncertainty in analyte concentration was calculated as a function of the number of samples, the average, and the standard deviation of the analytical results. The UCL{sub 95%} was based entirely on the six current scrape sample results (each averaged across three analytical determinations).« less

A Measurement of Secondary Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies with Two Years of South Pole Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichardt, C. L.; Shaw, L.; Zahn, O.; Aird, K. A.; Benson, B. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Chang, C. L.; Cho, H. M.; Crawford, T. M.; Crites, A. T.; de Haan, T.; Dobbs, M. A.; Dudley, J.; George, E. M.; Halverson, N. W.; Holder, G. P.; Holzapfel, W. L.; Hoover, S.; Hou, Z.; Hrubes, J. D.; Joy, M.; Keisler, R.; Knox, L.; Lee, A. T.; Leitch, E. M.; Lueker, M.; Luong-Van, D.; McMahon, J. J.; Mehl, J.; Meyer, S. S.; Millea, M.; Mohr, J. J.; Montroy, T. E.; Natoli, T.; Padin, S.; Plagge, T.; Pryke, C.; Ruhl, J. E.; Schaffer, K. K.; Shirokoff, E.; Spieler, H. G.; Staniszewski, Z.; Stark, A. A.; Story, K.; van Engelen, A.; Vanderlinde, K.; Vieira, J. D.; Williamson, R.

2012-08-01

We present the first three-frequency South Pole Telescope (SPT) cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra. The band powers presented here cover angular scales 2000 < l < 9400 in frequency bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. At these frequencies and angular scales, a combination of the primary CMB anisotropy, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effects, radio galaxies, and cosmic infrared background (CIB) contributes to the signal. We combine Planck/HFI and SPT data at 220 GHz to constrain the amplitude and shape of the CIB power spectrum and find strong evidence for nonlinear clustering. We explore the SZ results using a variety of cosmological models for the CMB and CIB anisotropies and find them to be robust with one exception: allowing for spatial correlations between the thermal SZ effect and CIB significantly degrades the SZ constraints. Neglecting this potential correlation, we find the thermal SZ power at 150 GHz and l = 3000 to be 3.65 ± 0.69 μK2, and set an upper limit on the kinetic SZ power to be less than 2.8 μK2 at 95% confidence. When a correlation between the thermal SZ and CIB is allowed, we constrain a linear combination of thermal and kinetic SZ power: D tSZ 3000 + 0.5D 3000 kSZ = 4.60 ± 0.63 μK2, consistent with earlier measurements. We use the measured thermal SZ power and an analytic, thermal SZ model calibrated with simulations to determine σ8 = 0.807 ± 0.016. Modeling uncertainties involving the astrophysics of the intracluster medium rather than the statistical uncertainty in the measured band powers are the dominant source of uncertainty on σ8. We also place an upper limit on the kinetic SZ power produced by patchy reionization; a companion paper uses these limits to constrain the reionization history of the universe.

A MEASUREMENT OF SECONDARY COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND ANISOTROPIES WITH TWO YEARS OF SOUTH POLE TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reichardt, C. L.; George, E. M.; Holzapfel, W. L.

2012-08-10

We present the first three-frequency South Pole Telescope (SPT) cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra. The band powers presented here cover angular scales 2000 < l < 9400 in frequency bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. At these frequencies and angular scales, a combination of the primary CMB anisotropy, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effects, radio galaxies, and cosmic infrared background (CIB) contributes to the signal. We combine Planck/HFI and SPT data at 220 GHz to constrain the amplitude and shape of the CIB power spectrum and find strong evidence for nonlinear clustering. We explore the SZ resultsmore » using a variety of cosmological models for the CMB and CIB anisotropies and find them to be robust with one exception: allowing for spatial correlations between the thermal SZ effect and CIB significantly degrades the SZ constraints. Neglecting this potential correlation, we find the thermal SZ power at 150 GHz and l = 3000 to be 3.65 {+-} 0.69 {mu}K{sup 2}, and set an upper limit on the kinetic SZ power to be less than 2.8 {mu}K{sup 2} at 95% confidence. When a correlation between the thermal SZ and CIB is allowed, we constrain a linear combination of thermal and kinetic SZ power: D{sup tSZ}{sub 3000} + 0.5D{sub 3000}{sup kSZ} = 4.60 {+-} 0.63 {mu}K{sup 2}, consistent with earlier measurements. We use the measured thermal SZ power and an analytic, thermal SZ model calibrated with simulations to determine {sigma}{sub 8} = 0.807 {+-} 0.016. Modeling uncertainties involving the astrophysics of the intracluster medium rather than the statistical uncertainty in the measured band powers are the dominant source of uncertainty on {sigma}{sub 8}. We also place an upper limit on the kinetic SZ power produced by patchy reionization; a companion paper uses these limits to constrain the reionization history of the universe.« less

Uncertainties in s-process nucleosynthesis in massive stars determined by Monte Carlo variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimura, N.; Hirschi, R.; Rauscher, T.; St. J. Murphy, A.; Cescutti, G.

2017-08-01

The s-process in massive stars produces the weak component of the s-process (nuclei up to A ˜ 90), in amounts that match solar abundances. For heavier isotopes, such as barium, production through neutron capture is significantly enhanced in very metal-poor stars with fast rotation. However, detailed theoretical predictions for the resulting final s-process abundances have important uncertainties caused both by the underlying uncertainties in the nuclear physics (principally neutron-capture reaction and β-decay rates) as well as by the stellar evolution modelling. In this work, we investigated the impact of nuclear-physics uncertainties relevant to the s-process in massive stars. Using a Monte Carlo based approach, we performed extensive nuclear reaction network calculations that include newly evaluated upper and lower limits for the individual temperature-dependent reaction rates. We found that most of the uncertainty in the final abundances is caused by uncertainties in the neutron-capture rates, while β-decay rate uncertainties affect only a few nuclei near s-process branchings. The s-process in rotating metal-poor stars shows quantitatively different uncertainties and key reactions, although the qualitative characteristics are similar. We confirmed that our results do not significantly change at different metallicities for fast rotating massive stars in the very low metallicity regime. We highlight which of the identified key reactions are realistic candidates for improved measurement by future experiments.

Five years of searches for point sources of astrophysical neutrinos with the AMANDA-II neutrino telescope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achterberg, A.; Duvoort, M. R.; Heise, J.

2007-05-15

We report the results of a five-year survey of the northern sky to search for point sources of high energy neutrinos. The search was performed on the data collected with the AMANDA-II neutrino telescope in the years 2000 to 2004, with a live time of 1001 days. The sample of selected events consists of 4282 upward going muon tracks with high reconstruction quality and an energy larger than about 100 GeV. We found no indication of point sources of neutrinos and set 90% confidence level flux upper limits for an all-sky search and also for a catalog of 32 selectedmore » sources. For the all-sky search, our average (over declination and right ascension) experimentally observed upper limit {phi}{sup 0}=((E/1 TeV)){sup {gamma}}{center_dot}(d{phi}/dE) to a point source flux of muon and tau neutrino (detected as muons arising from taus) is {phi}{sub {nu}{sub {mu}}+{nu}{sub {mu}}{sup 0}}+{phi}{sub {nu}{sub {tau}}+{nu}{sub {tau}}}{sup 0}=11.1x 10{sup -11} TeV{sup -1} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1}, in the energy range between 1.6 TeV and 2.5 PeV for a flavor ratio {phi}{sub {nu}{sub {mu}}+{nu}{sub {mu}}{sup 0}}/{phi}{sub {nu}{sub {tau}}+{nu}{sub {tau}}}{sup 0}=1 and assuming a spectral index {gamma}=2. It should be noticed that this is the first time we set upper limits to the flux of muon and tau neutrinos. In previous papers we provided muon neutrino upper limits only neglecting the sensitivity to a signal from tau neutrinos, which improves the limits by 10% to 16%. The value of the average upper limit presented in this work corresponds to twice the limit on the muon neutrino flux {phi}{sub {nu}{sub {mu}}+{nu}{sub {mu}}}{sup 0}=5.5x10{sup -11} TeV{sup -1} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1}. A stacking analysis for preselected active galactic nuclei and a search based on the angular separation of the events were also performed. We report the most stringent flux upper limits to date, including the results of a detailed assessment of systematic uncertainties.« less

A study of Tycho's SNR at TeV energies with the HEGRA CT-System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharonian, F. A.; Akhperjanian, A. G.; Barrio, J. A.; Bernlöhr, K.; Börst, H.; Bojahr, H.; Bolz, O.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Denninghoff, S.; Fonseca, V.; Gonzalez, J. C.; Götting, N.; Heinzelmann, G.; Hermann, G.; Heusler, A.; Hofmann, W.; Horns, D.; Ibarra, A.; Jung, I.; Kankanyan, R.; Kestel, M.; Kettler, J.; Kohnle, A.; Konopelko, A.; Kornmeyer, H.; Kranich, D.; Krawczynski, H.; Lampeitl, H.; Lorenz, E.; Lucarelli, F.; Magnussen, N.; Mang, O.; Meyer, H.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moralejo, A.; Padilla, L.; Panter, M.; Plaga, R.; Plyasheshnikov, A.; Prahl, J.; Pühlhofer, G.; Rauterberg, G.; Röhring, A.; Rhode, W.; Rowell, G. P.; Sahakian, V.; Samorski, M.; Schilling, M.; Schröder, F.; Stamm, W.; Tluczykont, M.; Völk, H. J.; Wiedner, C.; Wittek, W.

2001-07-01

Tycho's supernova remnant (SNR) was observed during 1997 and 1998 with the HEGRA Čerenkov Telescope System in a search for gamma-ray emission at energies above ~ 1 TeV. An analysis of these data, ~ 65 hours in total, resulted in no evidence for TeV gamma-ray emission. The 3sigma upper limit to the gamma-ray flux (>1 TeV) from Tycho is estimated at 5.78x 10-13 photons cm-2 s-1, or 33 milli-Crab. We interpret our upper limit within the framework of the following scenarios: (1) that the observed hard X-ray tail is due to synchrotron emission. A lower limit on the magnetic field within Tycho may be estimated B>=22 mu G, assuming that the RXTE-detected X-rays were due to synchrotron emission. However, using results from a detailed model of the ASCA emission, a more conservative lower limit B>=6 mu G is derived. (2) The hadronic model of Drury and (3) the more recent time-dependent kinetic theory of Berezhko & Völk. Our upper limit lies within the range of predicted values of both hadronic models, according to uncertainties in physical parameters of Tycho, and shock acceleration details. In the latter case, the model was scaled to suit the parameters of Tycho and re-normalised to account for a simplification of the original model. We find that we cannot rule out Tycho as a potential contributor at an average level to the Galactic cosmic-ray flux.

Uncertainty in low-flow data from three streamflow-gaging stations on the upper Verde River, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, D.W.; ,

2004-01-01

The evaluation of uncertainty in low-flow data collected from three streamflow-gaging stations on the upper Verde River, Arizona, was presented. In downstream order, the stations are Verde River near Paulden, Verde River near Clarkdale, and Verde River near Camp Verde. A monitoring objective of the evaluation was to characterize discharge of the lower flow regime through a variety of procedures such as frequency analysis and base-flow analysis. For Verde River near Paulden and near Camp Verde, the uncertainty of daily low flows can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of discharge-measurement frequency, or building an artificial control that would have a stable stage-discharge relation over time.

Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST.

PubMed

Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

Assessing measurement uncertainty in meteorology in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curci, S.; Lavecchia, C.; Frustaci, G.; Paolini, R.; Pilati, S.; Paganelli, C.

2017-10-01

Measurement uncertainty in meteorology has been addressed in a number of recent projects. In urban environments, uncertainty is also affected by local effects which are more difficult to deal with than for synoptic stations. In Italy, beginning in 2010, an urban meteorological network (Climate Network®) was designed, set up and managed at national level according to high metrological standards and homogeneity criteria to support energy applications. The availability of such a high-quality operative automatic weather station network represents an opportunity to investigate the effects of station siting and sensor exposure and to estimate the related measurement uncertainty. An extended metadata set was established for the stations in Milan, including siting and exposure details. Statistical analysis on an almost 3-year-long operational period assessed network homogeneity, quality and reliability. Deviations from reference mean values were then evaluated in selected low-gradient local weather situations in order to investigate siting and exposure effects. In this paper the methodology is depicted and preliminary results of its application to air temperature discussed; this allowed the setting of an upper limit of 1 °C for the added measurement uncertainty at the top of the urban canopy layer.

The Fermi Galactic Center GeV excess and implications for dark matter

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; ...

2017-05-04

Here, the region around the Galactic Center (GC) is now well established to be brighter at energies of a few GeV than what is expected from conventional models of diffuse gamma-ray emission and catalogs of known gamma-ray sources. We study the GeV excess using 6.5 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We characterize the uncertainty of the GC excess spectrum and morphology due to uncertainties in cosmic-ray source distributions and propagation, uncertainties in the distribution of interstellar gas in the Milky Way, and uncertainties due to a potential contribution from the Fermi bubbles. We also evaluate uncertaintiesmore » in the excess properties due to resolved point sources of gamma rays. The GC is of particular interest, as it would be expected to have the brightest signal from annihilation of weakly interacting massive dark matter (DM) particles. However, control regions along the Galactic plane, where a DM signal is not expected, show excesses of similar amplitude relative to the local background. Furthermore, based on the magnitude of the systematic uncertainties, we conservatively report upper limits for the annihilation cross-section as a function of particle mass and annihilation channel.« less

An export coefficient based inexact fuzzy bi-level multi-objective programming model for the management of agricultural nonpoint source pollution under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Yue, Wencong; Tan, Qian

2018-02-01

In this research, an export coefficient based inexact fuzzy bi-level multi-objective programming (EC-IFBLMOP) model was developed through integrating export coefficient model (ECM), interval parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy parameter programming (FPP) within a bi-level multi-objective programming framework. The proposed EC-IFBLMOP model can effectively deal with the multiple uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and fuzzy membership functions. Also, the complexities in agricultural systems, such as the cooperation and gaming relationship between the decision makers at different levels, can be fully considered in the model. The developed model was then applied to identify the optimal land use patterns and BMP implementing levels for agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution management in a subcatchment in the upper stream watershed of the Miyun Reservoir in north China. The results of the model showed that the desired optimal land use patterns and implementing levels of best management of practices (BMPs) would be obtained. It is the gaming result between the upper- and lower-level decision makers, when the allowable discharge amounts of NPS pollutants were limited. Moreover, results corresponding to different decision scenarios could provide a set of decision alternatives for the upper- and lower-level decision makers to identify the most appropriate management strategy. The model has a good applicability and can be effectively utilized for agricultural NPS pollution management.

THE PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. IV. A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO INFERRING THE HIGH-MASS STELLAR INITIAL MASS FUNCTION AND OTHER POWER-LAW FUNCTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weisz, Daniel R.; Fouesneau, Morgan; Dalcanton, Julianne J.

2013-01-10

We present a probabilistic approach for inferring the parameters of the present-day power-law stellar mass function (MF) of a resolved young star cluster. This technique (1) fully exploits the information content of a given data set; (2) can account for observational uncertainties in a straightforward way; (3) assigns meaningful uncertainties to the inferred parameters; (4) avoids the pitfalls associated with binning data; and (5) can be applied to virtually any resolved young cluster, laying the groundwork for a systematic study of the high-mass stellar MF (M {approx}> 1 M {sub Sun }). Using simulated clusters and Markov Chain Monte Carlomore » sampling of the probability distribution functions, we show that estimates of the MF slope, {alpha}, are unbiased and that the uncertainty, {Delta}{alpha}, depends primarily on the number of observed stars and on the range of stellar masses they span, assuming that the uncertainties on individual masses and the completeness are both well characterized. Using idealized mock data, we compute the theoretical precision, i.e., lower limits, on {alpha}, and provide an analytic approximation for {Delta}{alpha} as a function of the observed number of stars and mass range. Comparison with literature studies shows that {approx}3/4 of quoted uncertainties are smaller than the theoretical lower limit. By correcting these uncertainties to the theoretical lower limits, we find that the literature studies yield ({alpha}) = 2.46, with a 1{sigma} dispersion of 0.35 dex. We verify that it is impossible for a power-law MF to obtain meaningful constraints on the upper mass limit of the initial mass function, beyond the lower bound of the most massive star actually observed. We show that avoiding substantial biases in the MF slope requires (1) including the MF as a prior when deriving individual stellar mass estimates, (2) modeling the uncertainties in the individual stellar masses, and (3) fully characterizing and then explicitly modeling the completeness for stars of a given mass. The precision on MF slope recovery in this paper are lower limits, as we do not explicitly consider all possible sources of uncertainty, including dynamical effects (e.g., mass segregation), unresolved binaries, and non-coeval populations. We briefly discuss how each of these effects can be incorporated into extensions of the present framework. Finally, we emphasize that the technique and lessons learned are applicable to more general problems involving power-law fitting.« less

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP) Observations: Data Processing Methods and Systematic Errors Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinshaw, G.; Barnes, C.; Bennett, C. L.; Greason, M. R.; Halpern, M.; Hill, R. S.; Jarosik, N.; Kogut, A.; Limon, M.; Meyer, S. S.

2003-01-01

We describe the calibration and data processing methods used to generate full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from the first year of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Detailed limits on residual systematic errors are assigned based largely on analyses of the flight data supplemented, where necessary, with results from ground tests. The data are calibrated in flight using the dipole modulation of the CMB due to the observatory's motion around the Sun. This constitutes a full-beam calibration source. An iterative algorithm simultaneously fits the time-ordered data to obtain calibration parameters and pixelized sky map temperatures. The noise properties are determined by analyzing the time-ordered data with this sky signal estimate subtracted. Based on this, we apply a pre-whitening filter to the time-ordered data to remove a low level of l/f noise. We infer and correct for a small (approx. 1 %) transmission imbalance between the two sky inputs to each differential radiometer, and we subtract a small sidelobe correction from the 23 GHz (K band) map prior to further analysis. No other systematic error corrections are applied to the data. Calibration and baseline artifacts, including the response to environmental perturbations, are negligible. Systematic uncertainties are comparable to statistical uncertainties in the characterization of the beam response. Both are accounted for in the covariance matrix of the window function and are propagated to uncertainties in the final power spectrum. We characterize the combined upper limits to residual systematic uncertainties through the pixel covariance matrix.

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2006-01-01

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

Determining Core Plasmaspheric Electron Densities with the Van Allen Probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Pascuale, S.; Hartley, D.; Kurth, W. S.; Kletzing, C.; Thaller, S. A.; Wygant, J. R.

2016-12-01

We survey three methods for obtaining electron densities inside of the core plasmasphere region (L < 4) to the perigee of the Van Allen Probes (L 1.1) from September 2012 to December 2014. Using the EMFISIS instrument on board the Van Allen Probes, electron densities are extracted from the upper hybrid resonance to an uncertainty of 10%. Some measurements are subject to larger errors given interpretational issues, especially at low densities (L > 4) resulting from geomagnetic activity. At high densities EMFISIS is restricted by an upper observable limit near 3000 cm-3. As this limit is encountered above perigee, we employ two additional methods validated against EMFISIS measurements to determine electron densities deep within the plasmasphere (L < 2). EMFISIS can extrapolate density estimates to lower L by calculating high densities, in good agreement with the upper hybrid technique when applicable, from plasma wave properties. Calibrated measurements, from the Van Allen Probes EFW potential instrument, also extend into this range. In comparison with the published EMFISIS database we provide a metric for the validity of core plasmaspheric density measurements obtained from these methods and an empirical density model for use in wave and particle simulations.

Predictive inference for best linear combination of biomarkers subject to limits of detection.

PubMed

Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

2017-08-15

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate between two classes or groups. In practice, multiple diagnostic tests or biomarkers are combined to improve diagnostic accuracy. Often, biomarker measurements are undetectable either below or above the so-called limits of detection (LoD). In this paper, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for best linear combination of two or more biomarkers subject to limits of detection is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modelling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. The NPI lower and upper bounds for the ROC curve subject to limits of detection are derived, where the objective function to maximize is the area under the ROC curve. In addition, the paper discusses the effect of restriction on the linear combination's coefficients on the analysis. Examples are provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Upper Midwest farmer perceptions: Too much uncertainty about impacts of climate change to justify changing current agricultural practices

Treesearch

Lois Wright Morton; Gabrielle E. Roesch-McNally; Adam Wilke

2017-01-01

To be uncertain is to be unsure or have doubt. Results from a random sample survey show the majority (89.5%) of farmers in the Upper Midwest perceived there was too much uncertainty about the impacts of climate to justify changing their agricultural practices and strategies, despite scientific evidence regarding the causes and potential consequences of climate change....

A low upper mass limit for the central black hole in the late-type galaxy NGC 4414

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thater, S.; Krajnović, D.; Bourne, M. A.; Cappellari, M.; de Zeeuw, T.; Emsellem, E.; Magorrian, J.; McDermid, R. M.; Sarzi, M.; van de Ven, G.

2017-01-01

We present our mass estimate of the central black hole in the isolated spiral galaxy NGC 4414. Using natural guide star adaptive optics assisted observations with the Gemini Near-Infrared Integral Field Spectrometer (NIFS) and the natural seeing Gemini Multi-Object Spectrographs-North (GMOS), we derived two-dimensional stellar kinematic maps of NGC 4414 covering the central 1.5 arcsec and 10 arcsec, respectively, at a NIFS spatial resolution of 0.13 arcsec. The kinematic maps reveal a regular rotation pattern and a central velocity dispersion dip down to around 105 km s-1. We constructed dynamical models using two different methods: Jeans anisotropic dynamical modeling and axisymmetric Schwarzschild modeling. Both modeling methods give consistent results, but we cannot constrain the lower mass limit and only measure an upper limit for the black hole mass of MBH = 1.56 × 106M⊙ (at 3σ level) which is at least 1σ below the recent MBH-σe relations. Further tests with dark matter, mass-to-light ratio variation and different light models confirm that our results are not dominated by uncertainties. The derived upper limit mass is not only below the MBH-σe relation, but is also five times lower than the lower limit black hole mass anticipated from the resolution limit of the sphere of influence. This proves that via high quality integral field data we are now able to push black hole measurements down to at least five times less than the resolution limit. The reduced data cubes (FITS files) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/597/A18

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; Atwood, W. B.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.;

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; Atwood, W. B.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.; Berenji, B.; Blandford, R. D.; Bloom, E. D.; Bonamente, E.; Borgland, A. W.; Bregeon, J.; Brigida, M.; Bruel, P.; Buehler, R.; Burnett, T. H.; Buson, S.; Caliandro, G. A.; Cameron, R. A.; Cañadas, B.; Caraveo, P. A.; Casandjian, J. M.; Cecchi, C.; Charles, E.; Chekhtman, A.; Chiang, J.; Ciprini, S.; Claus, R.; Cohen-Tanugi, J.; Conrad, J.; Cutini, S.; de Angelis, A.; de Palma, F.; Dermer, C. D.; Digel, S. W.; Do Couto E Silva, E.; Drell, P. S.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Falletti, L.; Favuzzi, C.; Fegan, S. J.; Ferrara, E. C.; Fukazawa, Y.; Funk, S.; Fusco, P.; Gargano, F.; Gasparrini, D.; Gehrels, N.; Germani, S.; Giglietto, N.; Giordano, F.; Giroletti, M.; Glanzman, T.; Godfrey, G.; Grenier, I. A.; Guiriec, S.; Gustafsson, M.; Hadasch, D.; Hayashida, M.; Hays, E.; Hughes, R. E.; Jeltema, T. E.; Jóhannesson, G.; Johnson, R. P.; Johnson, A. S.; Kamae, T.; Katagiri, H.; Kataoka, J.; Knödlseder, J.; Kuss, M.; Lande, J.; Latronico, L.; Lionetto, A. M.; Llena Garde, M.; Longo, F.; Loparco, F.; Lott, B.; Lovellette, M. N.; Lubrano, P.; Madejski, G. M.; Mazziotta, M. N.; McEnery, J. E.; Mehault, J.; Michelson, P. F.; Mitthumsiri, W.; Mizuno, T.; Monte, C.; Monzani, M. E.; Morselli, A.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Murgia, S.; Naumann-Godo, M.; Norris, J. P.; Nuss, E.; Ohsugi, T.; Okumura, A.; Omodei, N.; Orlando, E.; Ormes, J. F.; Ozaki, M.; Paneque, D.; Parent, D.; Pesce-Rollins, M.; Pierbattista, M.; Piron, F.; Pivato, G.; Porter, T. A.; Profumo, S.; Rainò, S.; Razzano, M.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Ritz, S.; Roth, M.; Sadrozinski, H. F.-W.; Sbarra, C.; Scargle, J. D.; Schalk, T. L.; Sgrò, C.; Siskind, E. J.; Spandre, G.; Spinelli, P.; Strigari, L.; Suson, D. J.; Tajima, H.; Takahashi, H.; Tanaka, T.; Thayer, J. G.; Thayer, J. B.; Thompson, D. J.; Tibaldo, L.; Tinivella, M.; Torres, D. F.; Troja, E.; Uchiyama, Y.; Vandenbroucke, J.; Vasileiou, V.; Vianello, G.; Vitale, V.; Waite, A. P.; Wang, P.; Winer, B. L.; Wood, K. S.; Wood, M.; Yang, Z.; Zimmer, S.; Kaplinghat, M.; Martinez, G. D.

2011-12-01

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% confidence level upper limits range from about 10-26cm3s-1 at 5 GeV to about 5×10-23cm3s-1 at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation final state. For the first time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section (˜3×10-26cm3s-1 for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% con dence level upper limits range from about 10 -26 cm3s -1 at 5 GeV to about 5 X10 -23 cm3smore » -1 at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation nal state. For the rst time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section (~ 3 X 10 -26 cm 3s -1 for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.« less

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.

2011-12-01

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% con dence level upper limits range from about 10 -26 cm3s -1 at 5 GeV to about 5 X10 -23 cm3smore » -1 at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation nal state. For the rst time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section (~ 3 X 10 -26 cm 3s -1 for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.« less

Adaptive nonsingular fast terminal sliding-mode control for the tracking problem of uncertain dynamical systems.

PubMed

Boukattaya, Mohamed; Mezghani, Neila; Damak, Tarak

2018-06-01

In this paper, robust and adaptive nonsingular fast terminal sliding-mode (NFTSM) control schemes for the trajectory tracking problem are proposed with known or unknown upper bound of the system uncertainty and external disturbances. The developed controllers take the advantage of the NFTSM theory to ensure fast convergence rate, singularity avoidance, and robustness against uncertainties and external disturbances. First, a robust NFTSM controller is proposed which guarantees that sliding surface and equilibrium point can be reached in a short finite-time from any initial state. Then, in order to cope with the unknown upper bound of the system uncertainty which may be occurring in practical applications, a new adaptive NFTSM algorithm is developed. One feature of the proposed control law is their adaptation techniques where the prior knowledge of parameters uncertainty and disturbances is not needed. However, the adaptive tuning law can estimate the upper bound of these uncertainties using only position and velocity measurements. Moreover, the proposed controller eliminates the chattering effect without losing the robustness property and the precision. Stability analysis is performed using the Lyapunov stability theory, and simulation studies are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the developed control schemes. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Searches For The Exclusive Higgs and the Charged Higgs Bosons with the ATLAS Detector at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feremenga, Last

In this thesis, searches for the exclusive Standard Model (SM) and charged hMSSM Higgs bosons are performed. While observations of the SM Higgs boson in 2012 by ATLAS and CMS collaborations were ground-breaking, several of the SM Higgs boson properties such as its coupling strengths and branching ratios of its decays still carry large systematic uncertainties. Higgs boson candidates from exclusive production could lower these systematic uncertainties due to their cleaner production environment, improving knowledge of the SM Higgs boson sector. Since the charged Higgs boson is not included in the SM, its evidence would clearly indicate physics beyond the SM which could address the hierarchy problem. Since no signal is observed for either of these bosons, limits to their production cross sections are set. A 95% confidence-level upper limit on the total production cross-section for exclusive Higgs boson is set to 1.2 pb. Limits on the total production cross section of the charged Higgs boson times its branching ratio to taunu are set between 1.9 pb and 15 fb, for charged Higgs boson masses ranging from 200 to 2000 GeV.

Probabilistic description of probable maximum precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin

2017-04-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMP and PMF are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. Even if the current knowledge of storm mechanisms remains insufficient to properly evaluate limiting values of extreme precipitation, PMP estimation methods are still based on deterministic consideration, and give only single values. This study aims to provide a probabilistic description of the PMP based on the commonly used method, the so-called moisture maximization. To this end, a probabilistic bivariate extreme values model is proposed to address the limitations of traditional PMP estimates via moisture maximization namely: (i) the inability to evaluate uncertainty and to provide a range PMP values, (ii) the interpretation that a maximum of a data series as a physical upper limit (iii) and the assumption that a PMP event has maximum moisture availability. Results from simulation outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model CanRCM4 over North America reveal the high uncertainties inherent in PMP estimates and the non-validity of the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability. This later assumption leads to overestimation of the PMP by an average of about 15% over North America, which may have serious implications for engineering design.

Tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 and a constraint on its mean density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boss, Alan P.

1994-01-01

The apparent tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e) during a close encounter within approximately 1.62 planetary radii of Jupiter can be used along with theoretical models of tidal disruption to place an upper bound on the density of the predisruption body. Depending on the theoretical model used, these upper bounds range from rho(sub c) less than 0.702 +/- 0.080 g/cu cm for a simple analytical model calibrated by numerical smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations to rho(sub c) less than 1.50 +/- 0.17 g/cu cm for a detailed semianalytical model. The quoted uncertainties stem from an assumed uncertainty in the perijove radius. However, the uncertainty introduced by the different theoretical models is the major source of error; this uncertainty could be eliminated by future SPH simulations specialized to cometary disruptions, including the effects of initially prolate, spinning comets. If the SPH-based upper bound turns out to be most appropriate, it would be consistent with the predisruption body being a comet with a relatively low density and porous structure, as has been asserted previously based on observations of cometary outgassing. Regardless of which upper bound is preferable, the models all agree that the predisruption body could not have been a relatively high-density body, such as an asteroid with rho approximately = 2 g/cu cm.

The Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury. IV. A Probabilistic Approach to Inferring the High-mass Stellar Initial Mass Function and Other Power-law Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisz, Daniel R.; Fouesneau, Morgan; Hogg, David W.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Dolphin, Andrew E.; Dalcanton, Julianne J.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel T.; Lang, Dustin; Johnson, L. Clifton; Beerman, Lori C.; Bell, Eric F.; Gordon, Karl D.; Gouliermis, Dimitrios; Kalirai, Jason S.; Skillman, Evan D.; Williams, Benjamin F.

2013-01-01

We present a probabilistic approach for inferring the parameters of the present-day power-law stellar mass function (MF) of a resolved young star cluster. This technique (1) fully exploits the information content of a given data set; (2) can account for observational uncertainties in a straightforward way; (3) assigns meaningful uncertainties to the inferred parameters; (4) avoids the pitfalls associated with binning data; and (5) can be applied to virtually any resolved young cluster, laying the groundwork for a systematic study of the high-mass stellar MF (M >~ 1 M ⊙). Using simulated clusters and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the probability distribution functions, we show that estimates of the MF slope, α, are unbiased and that the uncertainty, Δα, depends primarily on the number of observed stars and on the range of stellar masses they span, assuming that the uncertainties on individual masses and the completeness are both well characterized. Using idealized mock data, we compute the theoretical precision, i.e., lower limits, on α, and provide an analytic approximation for Δα as a function of the observed number of stars and mass range. Comparison with literature studies shows that ~3/4 of quoted uncertainties are smaller than the theoretical lower limit. By correcting these uncertainties to the theoretical lower limits, we find that the literature studies yield langαrang = 2.46, with a 1σ dispersion of 0.35 dex. We verify that it is impossible for a power-law MF to obtain meaningful constraints on the upper mass limit of the initial mass function, beyond the lower bound of the most massive star actually observed. We show that avoiding substantial biases in the MF slope requires (1) including the MF as a prior when deriving individual stellar mass estimates, (2) modeling the uncertainties in the individual stellar masses, and (3) fully characterizing and then explicitly modeling the completeness for stars of a given mass. The precision on MF slope recovery in this paper are lower limits, as we do not explicitly consider all possible sources of uncertainty, including dynamical effects (e.g., mass segregation), unresolved binaries, and non-coeval populations. We briefly discuss how each of these effects can be incorporated into extensions of the present framework. Finally, we emphasize that the technique and lessons learned are applicable to more general problems involving power-law fitting. Based on observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained from the Data Archive at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

Shower disc sampling and the angular resolution of gamma-ray shower detectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, A.; Lloyd-Evans, J.

1985-01-01

As part of the design study for the new UHE gamma ray detector being constsructed at Haverah Park, a series of experiments using scintillators operated side-by-side in 10 to the 15th power eV air showers are undertaken. Investigation of the rms sampling fluctuations in the shower disc arrival time yields an upper limit to the intrinsic sampling uncertainty, sigma sub rms = (1.1 + or - 0.1)ns, implying an angular resolution capability 1 deg for an inter-detector spacing of approximately 25 m.

The Global Energy Balance of Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Liming; Nixon, Conor A.; Achterberg, Richard K.; Smith, Mark A.; Gorius, Nicolas J. P.; Jiang, Xun; Conrath, Barney J.; Gierasch, Peter J.; Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Flasar, F. Michael;

Optical Frequency Synthesizer for Precision Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzwarth, R.; Udem, Th.; Hänsch, T. W.; Knight, J. C.; Wadsworth, W. J.; Russell, P. St. J.

2000-09-01

We have used the frequency comb generated by a femtosecond mode-locked laser and broadened to more than an optical octave in a photonic crystal fiber to realize a frequency chain that links a 10 MHz radio frequency reference phase-coherently in one step to the optical region. By comparison with a similar frequency chain we set an upper limit for the uncertainty of this new approach to 5.1×10-16. This opens the door for measurement and synthesis of virtually any optical frequency and is ready to revolutionize frequency metrology.

Search for penguin decays of B mesons at CDF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordas, Kostas

Using a data sample of integrated luminosity ∫ Ldt = 28.9 +/- 1.2 pb-1 of proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy s = 1.8 TeV collected with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider, we searched for "penguin" radiative decays of B0d and B0s mesons which involve the flavor-changing neutral-current transition of a b quark into an s quark with the emission of a photon, b→sg . Specifically, we searched for the decays B0d→K*0g, K*0→K+p- and B0s→fg, f→K+K- , as well as for the charge conjugate chains. In order to collect such decays, we designed a specialized trigger which required information on all the decay products of the B meson decay chain, the first such trigger in a hadron collider environment. This "penguin" trigger collected data during the last quarter of the 1994--1996 data taking period. After all selection criteria, we are left with one candidate B0d→K*0g decay and no B0s→fg candidates in the entire data sample. We then proceed to set upper limits on the branching fractions of the penguin channels. We exploit the topological similarity between the B¯→e-D0 X,D0→K-p + and the penguin decays, by forming ratios of branching fractions between the penguin and the B¯→e-D0 X channels. Uncertainties associated with the B meson production cross section, common efficiency corrections and other systematic effects are minimal in the ratio of branching fractions. The uncertainty on the B¯→e-D0 X yield is the biggest contribution to the total uncertainty on the penguin branching fraction. We assume equal production rates for B+u and B0d mesons, while the probability of producing B0s mesons relative to B0d mesons, fs/fd, is taken to be 1/3. The inferred upper limits on the ratios of branching fractions are B(B0 s→fg)B( B¯→e-D0 X)<3.5x10-3 at90% C.L. B(B 0d→K*0g) B(B¯→e- D0X)<1.9x10-3 at90%C.L. Relative branching fraction measurements were combined with the branching fraction measurement of the B¯→e-D0 X,D0→K-p + decay chain, B(B¯→e- D0X)xB(D0→ K-p+) = (294 +/- 40) x 10-5, to extract the following absolute branching fraction limits B(B0s→ fg)<2.8x10-4 at90%C.L. B(B0d →K*0g)<1.5x10-4 at90% C.L. The upper limit for the B0d→K*0g decay is consistent with the branching fraction measurement reported by the CLEO collaboration, B(B0d→K*0 g) = (4.0 +/- 1.9) x 10-5, while the upper limit for the as yet unobserved B0s→fg decay is the most constraining one set to date.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review.

PubMed

Li, Zijian; Jennings, Aaron

2017-07-22

Abstract : The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways.

Worldwide Regulations of Standard Values of Pesticides for Human Health Risk Control: A Review

PubMed Central

Jennings, Aaron

2017-01-01

The impact of pesticide residues on human health is a worldwide problem, as human exposure to pesticides can occur through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Regulatory jurisdictions have promulgated the standard values for pesticides in residential soil, air, drinking water, and agricultural commodity for years. Until now, more than 19,400 pesticide soil regulatory guidance values (RGVs) and 5400 pesticide drinking water maximum concentration levels (MCLs) have been regulated by 54 and 102 nations, respectively. Over 90 nations have provided pesticide agricultural commodity maximum residue limits (MRLs) for at least one of the 12 most commonly consumed agricultural foods. A total of 22 pesticides have been regulated with more than 100 soil RGVs, and 25 pesticides have more than 100 drinking water MCLs. This research indicates that those RGVs and MCLs for an individual pesticide could vary over seven (DDT drinking water MCLs), eight (Lindane soil RGVs), or even nine (Dieldrin soil RGVs) orders of magnitude. Human health risk uncertainty bounds and the implied total exposure mass burden model were applied to analyze the most commonly regulated and used pesticides for human health risk control. For the top 27 commonly regulated pesticides in soil, there are at least 300 RGVs (8% of the total) that are above all of the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty. For the top 29 most-commonly regulated pesticides in drinking water, at least 172 drinking water MCLs (5% of the total) exceed the computed upper bounds for human health risk uncertainty; while for the 14 most widely used pesticides, there are at least 310 computed implied dose limits (28.0% of the total) that are above the acceptable daily intake values. The results show that some worldwide standard values were not derived conservatively enough to avoid human health risk by the pesticides, and that some values were not computed comprehensively by considering all major human exposure pathways. PMID:28737697

Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.

PubMed

Borsuk, M E; Tomassini, L

2005-01-01

Statistical decision theory can provide useful support for climate change decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. However, the probability distributions used to calculate expected costs in decision theory are themselves subject to uncertainty, disagreement, or ambiguity in their specification. This imprecision can be described using sets of probability measures, from which upper and lower bounds on expectations can be calculated. However, many representations, or classes, of probability measures are possible. We describe six of the more useful classes and demonstrate how each may be used to represent climate change uncertainties. When expected costs are specified by bounds, rather than precise values, the conventional decision criterion of minimum expected cost is insufficient to reach a unique decision. Alternative criteria are required, and the criterion of minimum upper expected cost may be desirable because it is consistent with the precautionary principle. Using simple climate and economics models as an example, we determine the carbon dioxide emissions levels that have minimum upper expected cost for each of the selected classes. There can be wide differences in these emissions levels and their associated costs, emphasizing the need for care when selecting an appropriate class.

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisso, Ignacio; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Platt, Stephen Matthew; Eckhardt, Sabine; Hermansen, Ove; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Mienert, Jurgen; Vadakkepuliyambatta, Sunil; Bauguitte, Stephane; Pitt, Joseph; Allen, Grant; Bower, Keith; O'Shea, Sebastian; Gallagher, Martin; Percival, Carl; Pyle, John; Cain, Michelle; Stohl, Andreas

2017-04-01

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (FAAM) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014, and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model-supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol / m s in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggests CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg/yr . All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.

Observational tests of convective core overshooting in stars of intermediate to high mass in the Galaxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1991-01-01

This study presents the results of 14 tests for the presence of convective overshooting in large convecting stellar cores for stars with masses of 4-17 solar masses which are members of detached close binary systems and of open clusters in the Galaxy. A large body of theoretical and observational data is scrutinized and subjected to averaging in order to minimize accidental and systematic errors. A conservative upper limit of d/HP less than 0.4 is found from at least four tests, as well as a tighter upper limit of d/HP less than 0.2 from one good test that is subject to only mild restrictions and is based on the maximum observed effective temperature of evolved blue supergiants. It is concluded that any current uncertainty about the distance scale for these stars is unimportant in conducting the present tests for convective core overshooting. The correct effective temperature scale for the B0.5-B2 stars is almost certainly close to one of the proposed hot scales.

Constraint of the Astrophysical Al 26 g ( p , γ ) Si 27 Destruction Rate at Stellar Temperatures

DOE PAGES

Pain, S. D.; Bardayan, D. W.; Blackmon, J. C.; ...

2015-05-28

The Galactic 1.809-MeV γ-ray signature from the β decay of 26gAl is a dominant target of γ-ray astronomy, of which a significant component is understood to originate from massive stars. The 26gAl(p,γ) 27Si reaction is a major destruction pathway for 26gAl at stellar temperatures, but the reaction rate is poorly constrained due to uncertainties in the strengths of low-lying resonances in 27Si. The 26gAl (d,p) 27Al reaction has been employed in inverse kinematics to determine the spectroscopic factors, and hence resonance strengths, of proton resonances in 27Si via mirror symmetry. Finally, the strength of the 127-keV resonance is found tomore » be a factor of 4 higher than the previously adopted upper limit, and the upper limit for the 68-keV resonance has been reduced by an order of magnitude, considerably constraining the 26gAl destruction rate at stellar temperatures.« less

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; /Stanford U., HEPL /Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U. /SLAC

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% confidence level upper limits range from about 10{sup -26} cm{sup 3} s{sup -1} at 5 GeV to about 5 x 10{supmore » -23} cm{sup 3} s{sup -1} at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation final state. For the first time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section ({approx}3 x 10{sup -26} cm{sup 3} s{sup -1} for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.« less

Constraining dark matter models from a combined analysis of Milky Way satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope.

PubMed

Ackermann, M; Ajello, M; Albert, A; Atwood, W B; Baldini, L; Ballet, J; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D; Bechtol, K; Bellazzini, R; Berenji, B; Blandford, R D; Bloom, E D; Bonamente, E; Borgland, A W; Bregeon, J; Brigida, M; Bruel, P; Buehler, R; Burnett, T H; Buson, S; Caliandro, G A; Cameron, R A; Cañadas, B; Caraveo, P A; Casandjian, J M; Cecchi, C; Charles, E; Chekhtman, A; Chiang, J; Ciprini, S; Claus, R; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Conrad, J; Cutini, S; de Angelis, A; de Palma, F; Dermer, C D; Digel, S W; do Couto e Silva, E; Drell, P S; Drlica-Wagner, A; Falletti, L; Favuzzi, C; Fegan, S J; Ferrara, E C; Fukazawa, Y; Funk, S; Fusco, P; Gargano, F; Gasparrini, D; Gehrels, N; Germani, S; Giglietto, N; Giordano, F; Giroletti, M; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G; Grenier, I A; Guiriec, S; Gustafsson, M; Hadasch, D; Hayashida, M; Hays, E; Hughes, R E; Jeltema, T E; Jóhannesson, G; Johnson, R P; Johnson, A S; Kamae, T; Katagiri, H; Kataoka, J; Knödlseder, J; Kuss, M; Lande, J; Latronico, L; Lionetto, A M; Llena Garde, M; Longo, F; Loparco, F; Lott, B; Lovellette, M N; Lubrano, P; Madejski, G M; Mazziotta, M N; McEnery, J E; Mehault, J; Michelson, P F; Mitthumsiri, W; Mizuno, T; Monte, C; Monzani, M E; Morselli, A; Moskalenko, I V; Murgia, S; Naumann-Godo, M; Norris, J P; Nuss, E; Ohsugi, T; Okumura, A; Omodei, N; Orlando, E; Ormes, J F; Ozaki, M; Paneque, D; Parent, D; Pesce-Rollins, M; Pierbattista, M; Piron, F; Pivato, G; Porter, T A; Profumo, S; Rainò, S; Razzano, M; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Ritz, S; Roth, M; Sadrozinski, H F-W; Sbarra, C; Scargle, J D; Schalk, T L; Sgrò, C; Siskind, E J; Spandre, G; Spinelli, P; Strigari, L; Suson, D J; Tajima, H; Takahashi, H; Tanaka, T; Thayer, J G; Thayer, J B; Thompson, D J; Tibaldo, L; Tinivella, M; Torres, D F; Troja, E; Uchiyama, Y; Vandenbroucke, J; Vasileiou, V; Vianello, G; Vitale, V; Waite, A P; Wang, P; Winer, B L; Wood, K S; Wood, M; Yang, Z; Zimmer, S; Kaplinghat, M; Martinez, G D

2011-12-09

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% confidence level upper limits range from about 10(-26)  cm3  s(-1) at 5 GeV to about 5×10(-23)   cm3  s(-1) at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation final state. For the first time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section (∼3×10(-26)  cm3  s(-1) for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.

Role of mathematical models in assessment of risk and in attempts to define management strategy.

PubMed

Flamm, W G; Winbush, J S

1984-06-01

Risk assessment of food-borne carcinogens is becoming a common practice at FDA. Actual risk is not being estimated, only the upper limit of risk. The risk assessment process involves a large number of steps and assumptions, many of which affect the numerical value estimated. The mathematical model which is to be applied is only one of the factors which affect these numerical values. To fulfill the policy objective of using the "worst plausible case" in estimating the upper limit of risk, recognition needs to be given to a proper balancing of assumptions and decisions. Interaction between risk assessors and risk managers should avoid making or giving the appearance of making specific technical decisions such as the choice of the mathematical model. The importance of this emerging field is too great to jeopardize it by inappropriately mixing scientific judgments with policy judgments. The risk manager should understand fully the points and range of uncertainty involved in arriving at the estimates of risk which must necessarily affect the choice of the policy or regulatory options available.

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol A.

2012-01-01

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

USGS Polar Temperature Logging System, Description and Measurement Uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, Gary D.

2008-01-01

This paper provides an updated technical description of the USGS Polar Temperature Logging System (PTLS) and a complete assessment of the measurement uncertainties. This measurement system is used to acquire subsurface temperature data for climate-change detection in the polar regions and for reconstructing past climate changes using the 'borehole paleothermometry' inverse method. Specifically designed for polar conditions, the PTLS can measure temperatures as low as -60 degrees Celsius with a sensitivity ranging from 0.02 to 0.19 millikelvin (mK). A modular design allows the PTLS to reach depths as great as 4.5 kilometers with a skid-mounted winch unit or 650 meters with a small helicopter-transportable unit. The standard uncertainty (uT) of the ITS-90 temperature measurements obtained with the current PTLS range from 3.0 mK at -60 degrees Celsius to 3.3 mK at 0 degrees Celsius. Relative temperature measurements used for borehole paleothermometry have a standard uncertainty (urT) whose upper limit ranges from 1.6 mK at -60 degrees Celsius to 2.0 mK at 0 degrees Celsius. The uncertainty of a temperature sensor's depth during a log depends on specific borehole conditions and the temperature near the winch and thus must be treated on a case-by-case basis. However, recent experience indicates that when logging conditions are favorable, the 4.5-kilometer system is capable of producing depths with a standard uncertainty (uZ) on the order of 200-250 parts per million.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matthias C. M. Troffaes; Gero Walter; Dana Kelly

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences. In this paper, we adapt the imprecise Dirichlet model of Walley to represent epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. In this approach, epistemic uncertainty is expressed more cautiously via lower and upper expectations for each alpha-factor, along with a learning parameter which determines how quickly the model learns from observed data. For this application, we focus onmore » elicitation of the learning parameter, and find that values in the range of 1 to 10 seem reasonable. The approach is compared with Kelly and Atwood's minimally informative Dirichlet prior for the alpha-factor model, which incorporated precise mean values for the alpha-factors, but which was otherwise quite diffuse. Next, we explore the use of a set of Gamma priors to model epistemic uncertainty in the marginal failure rate, expressed via a lower and upper expectation for this rate, again along with a learning parameter. As zero counts are generally less of an issue here, we find that the choice of this learning parameter is less crucial. Finally, we demonstrate how both epistemic uncertainty models can be combined to arrive at lower and upper expectations for all common-cause failure rates. Thereby, we effectively provide a full sensitivity analysis of common-cause failure rates, properly reflecting epistemic uncertainty of the analyst on all levels of the common-cause failure model.« less

Calibration of a stack of NaI scintillators at the Berkeley Bevalac

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schindler, S. M.; Buffington, A.; Lau, K.; Rasmussen, I. L.

1983-01-01

An analysis of the carbon and argon data reveals that essentially all of the charge-changing fragmentation reactions within the stack can be identified and removed by imposing the simple criteria relating the observed energy deposition profiles to the expected Bragg curve depositions. It is noted that these criteria are even capable of identifying approximately one-third of the expected neutron-stripping interactions, which in these cases have anomalous deposition profiles. The contribution of mass error from uncertainty in delta E has an upper limit of 0.25 percent for Mn; this produces an associated mass error for the experiment of about 0.14 amu. It is believed that this uncertainty will change little with changing gamma. Residual errors in the mapping produce even smaller mass errors for lighter isotopes, whereas photoelectron fluctuations and delta-ray effects are approximately the same independent of the charge and energy deposition.

Uncertainty in stormwater drainage adaptation: what matters and how much is too much?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, L. J.; Simpson, M. H.; Moore, T.; Gulliver, J. S.; Roseen, R.; Eberhart, L.; Smith, J. B.; Gruber, J.; Yetka, L.; Wood, R.; Lawson, C.

2014-12-01

Published research continues to report that long-term, local-scale precipitation forecasts are too uncertain to support local-scale adaptation. Numerous studies quantify the range of uncertainty in downscaled model output; compare this with uncertainty from other sources such as hydrological modeling; and propose circumventing uncertainty via "soft" or "low regret" actions, or adaptive management. Yet non-structural adaptations alone are likely insufficient. Structural adaptation requires quantified engineering design specifications. However, the literature does not define a tolerable level of uncertainty. Without such a benchmark, how can we determine whether the climate-change-cognizant design specifications that we are capable of, for example the climate change factors increasingly utilized in European practice, are viable? The presentation will explore this question, in the context of reporting results and observations from an ongoing ten-year program assessing local-scale stormwater drainage system vulnerabilities, required capacities, and adaptation options and costs. This program has studied stormwater systems of varying complexity in a variety of regions, topographies, and levels of urbanization, in northern-New England and the upper-Midwestern United States. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of local-scale design specifications, and provide tangible information on risk to enable valid cost/benefit decisions. The research program has found that stormwater planners and engineers have routinely accepted, in the normal course of professional practice, a level of uncertainty in hydrological modeling comparable to that in long-term precipitation projections. Moreover, the ability to quantify required capacity and related construction costs for specific climate change scenarios, the insensitivity of capacity and costs to uncertainty, and the percentage of pipes and culverts that never require upsizing, all serve to limit the impact of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections.

Strong Unitary and Overlap Uncertainty Relations: Theory and Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bong, Kok-Wei; Tischler, Nora; Patel, Raj B.; Wollmann, Sabine; Pryde, Geoff J.; Hall, Michael J. W.

2018-06-01

We derive and experimentally investigate a strong uncertainty relation valid for any n unitary operators, which implies the standard uncertainty relation and others as special cases, and which can be written in terms of geometric phases. It is saturated by every pure state of any n -dimensional quantum system, generates a tight overlap uncertainty relation for the transition probabilities of any n +1 pure states, and gives an upper bound for the out-of-time-order correlation function. We test these uncertainty relations experimentally for photonic polarization qubits, including the minimum uncertainty states of the overlap uncertainty relation, via interferometric measurements of generalized geometric phases.

Uncertainty for calculating transport on Titan: A probabilistic description of bimolecular diffusion parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plessis, S.; McDougall, D.; Mandt, K.; Greathouse, T.; Luspay-Kuti, A.

2015-11-01

Bimolecular diffusion coefficients are important parameters used by atmospheric models to calculate altitude profiles of minor constituents in an atmosphere. Unfortunately, laboratory measurements of these coefficients were never conducted at temperature conditions relevant to the atmosphere of Titan. Here we conduct a detailed uncertainty analysis of the bimolecular diffusion coefficient parameters as applied to Titan's upper atmosphere to provide a better understanding of the impact of uncertainty for this parameter on models. Because temperature and pressure conditions are much lower than the laboratory conditions in which bimolecular diffusion parameters were measured, we apply a Bayesian framework, a problem-agnostic framework, to determine parameter estimates and associated uncertainties. We solve the Bayesian calibration problem using the open-source QUESO library which also performs a propagation of uncertainties in the calibrated parameters to temperature and pressure conditions observed in Titan's upper atmosphere. Our results show that, after propagating uncertainty through the Massman model, the uncertainty in molecular diffusion is highly correlated to temperature and we observe no noticeable correlation with pressure. We propagate the calibrated molecular diffusion estimate and associated uncertainty to obtain an estimate with uncertainty due to bimolecular diffusion for the methane molar fraction as a function of altitude. Results show that the uncertainty in methane abundance due to molecular diffusion is in general small compared to eddy diffusion and the chemical kinetics description. However, methane abundance is most sensitive to uncertainty in molecular diffusion above 1200 km where the errors are nontrivial and could have important implications for scientific research based on diffusion models in this altitude range.

Monte Carlo exploration of Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein solutions to the solar neutrino problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, X.; Schramm, D. N.; Bahcall, J. N.

1992-01-01

The paper explores the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) solution by calculating the allowed MSW solutions for 1000 different solar models with a Monte Carlo selection of solar model input parameters, assuming a full three-family MSW mixing. Applications are made to the chlorine, gallium, Kamiokande, and Borexino experiments. The initial GALLEX result limits the mixing parameters to the upper diagonal and the vertical regions of the MSW triangle. The expected event rates in the Borexino experiment are also calculated, assuming the MSW solutions implied by GALLEX.

Estimation of the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure using subset simulation and random set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Diego A.; Uribe, Felipe; Hurtado, Jorge E.

2018-02-01

Random set theory is a general framework which comprises uncertainty in the form of probability boxes, possibility distributions, cumulative distribution functions, Dempster-Shafer structures or intervals; in addition, the dependence between the input variables can be expressed using copulas. In this paper, the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure are calculated by means of random set theory. In order to accelerate the calculation, a well-known and efficient probability-based reliability method known as subset simulation is employed. This method is especially useful for finding small failure probabilities in both low- and high-dimensional spaces, disjoint failure domains and nonlinear limit state functions. The proposed methodology represents a drastic reduction of the computational labor implied by plain Monte Carlo simulation for problems defined with a mixture of representations for the input variables, while delivering similar results. Numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

POLARBEAR constraints on cosmic birefringence and primordial magnetic fields

DOE PAGES

Ade, Peter A. R.; Arnold, Kam; Atlas, Matt; ...

2015-12-08

Here, we constrain anisotropic cosmic birefringence using four-point correlations of even-parity E-mode and odd-parity B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background measurements made by the POLARization of the Background Radiation (POLARBEAR) experiment in its first season of observations. We find that the anisotropic cosmic birefringence signal from any parity-violating processes is consistent with zero. The Faraday rotation from anisotropic cosmic birefringence can be compared with the equivalent quantity generated by primordial magnetic fields if they existed. The POLARBEAR nondetection translates into a 95% confidence level (C.L.) upper limit of 93 nanogauss (nG) on the amplitude of an equivalent primordial magneticmore » field inclusive of systematic uncertainties. This four-point correlation constraint on Faraday rotation is about 15 times tighter than the upper limit of 1380 nG inferred from constraining the contribution of Faraday rotation to two-point correlations of B-modes measured by Planck in 2015. Metric perturbations sourced by primordial magnetic fields would also contribute to the B-mode power spectrum. Using the POLARBEAR measurements of the B-mode power spectrum (two-point correlation), we set a 95% C.L. upper limit of 3.9 nG on primordial magnetic fields assuming a flat prior on the field amplitude. This limit is comparable to what was found in the Planck 2015 two-point correlation analysis with both temperature and polarization. Finally, we perform a set of systematic error tests and find no evidence for contamination. This work marks the first time that anisotropic cosmic birefringence or primordial magnetic fields have been constrained from the ground at subdegree scales.« less

Robust guaranteed cost tracking control of quadrotor UAV with uncertainties.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Nian, Xiaohong; Wang, Haibo; Chen, Yinsheng

2017-07-01

In this paper, a robust guaranteed cost controller (RGCC) is proposed for quadrotor UAV system with uncertainties to address set-point tracking problem. A sufficient condition of the existence for RGCC is derived by Lyapunov stability theorem. The designed RGCC not only guarantees the whole closed-loop system asymptotically stable but also makes the quadratic performance level built for the closed-loop system have an upper bound irrespective to all admissible parameter uncertainties. Then, an optimal robust guaranteed cost controller is developed to minimize the upper bound of performance level. Simulation results verify the presented control algorithms possess small overshoot and short setting time, with which the quadrotor has ability to perform set-point tracking task well. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Search for Muon Neutrinos from Northern Hemisphere Gamma-Ray Bursts with AMANDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achterberg, A.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Ahrens, J.; Andeen, K.; Auffenberg, J.; Bahcall, J. N.; Bai, X.; Baret, B.; Barwick, S. W.; Bay, R.; Beattie, K.; Becka, T.; Becker, J. K.; Becker, K.-H.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bertrand, D.; Besson, D. Z.; Blaufuss, E.; Boersma, D. J.; Bohm, C.; Bolmont, J.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Bouchta, A.; Braun, J.; Burgess, C.; Burgess, T.; Castermans, T.; Chirkin, D.; Christy, B.; Clem, J.; Cowen, D. F.; D'Agostino, M. V.; Davour, A.; Day, C. T.; De Clercq, C.; Demirörs, L.; Descamps, F.; Desiati, P.; DeYoung, T.; Diaz-Velez, J. C.; Dreyer, J.; Dumm, J. P.; Duvoort, M. R.; Edwards, W. R.; Ehrlich, R.; Eisch, J.; Ellsworth, R. W.; Evenson, P. A.; Fadiran, O.; Fazely, A. R.; Filimonov, K.; Foerster, M. M.; Fox, B. D.; Franckowiak, A.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Ganugapati, R.; Geenen, H.; Gerhardt, L.; Goldschmidt, A.; Goodman, J. A.; Gozzini, R.; Griesel, T.; Gross, A.; Grullon, S.; Gunasingha, R. M.; Gurtner, M.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Han, K.; Hanson, K.; Hardtke, D.; Hardtke, R.; Hart, J. E.; Hasegawa, Y.; Hauschildt, T.; Hays, D.; Heise, J.; Helbing, K.; Hellwig, M.; Herquet, P.; Hill, G. C.; Hodges, J.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hommez, B.; Hoshina, K.; Hubert, D.; Hughey, B.; Hulth, P. O.; Hülss, J.-P.; Hultqvist, K.; Hundertmark, S.; Inaba, M.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobsen, J.; Japaridze, G. S.; Johansson, H.; Jones, A.; Joseph, J. M.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Kawai, H.; Kelley, J. L.; Kitamura, N.; Klein, S. R.; Klepser, S.; Kohnen, G.; Kolanoski, H.; Köpke, L.; Kowalski, M.; Kowarik, T.; Krasberg, M.; Kuehn, K.; Labare, M.; Landsman, H.; Leich, H.; Leier, D.; Liubarsky, I.; Lundberg, J.; Lünemann, J.; Madsen, J.; Mase, K.; Matis, H. S.; McCauley, T.; McParland, C. P.; Meli, A.; Messarius, T.; Mészáros, P.; Miyamoto, H.; Mokhtarani, A.; Montaruli, T.; Morey, A.; Morse, R.; Movit, S. M.; Münich, K.; Nahnhauer, R.; Nam, J. W.; Niessen, P.; Nygren, D. R.; Ögelman, H.; Olivas, A.; Patton, S.; Peña-Garay, C.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Piegsa, A.; Pieloth, D.; Pohl, A. C.; Porrata, R.; Pretz, J.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Rawlins, K.; Razzaque, S.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Ribordy, M.; Rizzo, A.; Robbins, S.; Roth, P.; Rott, C.; Rutledge, D.; Ryckbosch, D.; Sander, H.-G.; Sarkar, S.; Schlenstedt, S.; Schmidt, T.; Schneider, D.; Seckel, D.; Semburg, B.; Seo, S. H.; Seunarine, S.; Silvestri, A.; Smith, A. J.; Solarz, M.; Song, C.; Sopher, J. E.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stamatikos, M.; Stanev, T.; Steffen, P.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stoufer, M. C.; Stoyanov, S.; Strahler, E. A.; Straszheim, T.; Sulanke, K.-H.; Sullivan, G. W.; Sumner, T. J.; Taboada, I.; Tarasova, O.; Tepe, A.; Thollander, L.; Tilav, S.; Tluczykont, M.; Toale, P. A.; Turčan, D.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vandenbroucke, J.; Van Overloop, A.; Viscomi, V.; Voigt, B.; Wagner, W.; Walck, C.; Waldmann, H.; Walter, M.; Wang, Y.-R.; Wendt, C.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Wikström, G.; Williams, D. R.; Wischnewski, R.; Wissing, H.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, X. W.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zornoza, J. D.; Interplanetary Network, The

2008-02-01

We present the results of the analysis of neutrino observations by the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA) correlated with photon observations of more than 400 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the northern hemisphere from 1997 to 2003. During this time period, AMANDA's effective collection area for muon neutrinos was larger than that of any other existing detector. After the application of various selection criteria to our data, we expect ~1 neutrino event and <2 background events. Based on our observations of zero events during and immediately prior to the GRBs in the data set, we set the most stringent upper limit on muon neutrino emission correlated with GRBs. Assuming a Waxman-Bahcall spectrum and incorporating all systematic uncertainties, our flux upper limit has a normalization at 1 PeV of E2Φν <= 6.3 × 10-9 GeV cm-2 s-1 sr-1, with 90% of the events expected within the energy range of ~10 TeV to ~3 PeV. The impact of this limit on several theoretical models of GRBs is discussed, as well as the future potential for detection of GRBs by next-generation neutrino telescopes. Finally, we briefly describe several modifications to this analysis in order to apply it to other types of transient point sources.

The Search for Muon Neutrinos from Northern HemisphereGamma-Ray Bursts with AMANDA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

IceCube Collaboration; Klein, Spencer; Achterberg, A.

2007-05-08

We present the results of the analysis of neutrino observations by the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA) correlated with photon observations of more than 400 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the Northern Hemisphere from 1997 to 2003. During this time period, AMANDA's effective collection area for muon neutrinos was larger than that of any other existing detector. Based on our observations of zero neutrinos during and immediately prior to the GRBs in the dataset, we set the most stringent upper limit on muon neutrino emission correlated with gamma-ray bursts. Assuming a Waxman-Bahcall spectrum and incorporating all systematic uncertainties, ourmore » flux upper limit has a normalization at 1 PeV of E{sup 2}{Phi}{sub {nu}} {le} 6.0 x 10{sup -9} GeV cm{sup -2}s{sup -1}sr{sup -1}, with 90% of the events expected within the energy range of {approx}10 TeV to {approx}3 PeV. The impact of this limit on several theoretical models of GRBs is discussed, as well as the future potential for detection of GRBs by next generation neutrino telescopes. Finally, we briefly describe several modifications to this analysis in order to apply it to other types of transient point sources.« less

Defining the upper age limit of luminescence dating: A case study using long lacustrine records from Chew Bahir, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapot, Melissa S.; Roberts, Helen M.; Lamb, Henry F.; Schäbitz, Frank; Asrat, Asfawossen; Trauth, Martin H.

2017-04-01

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating is a family of numerical chronometric techniques applied to quartz or feldspar mineral grains to assess the time since these grains were last exposed to sunlight (i.e. deposited), based on the amount of energy they absorbed from ambient radiation during burial. The maximum limit of any OSL dating technique is not defined by a fixed upper age limit, but instead by the maximum radiation dose the sample can accurately record before the OSL signal saturates. The challenge is to assess this upper limit of accurate age determination without necessitating comparison to independent age control. Laboratory saturation of OSL signals can be observed using a dose response curve (DRC) plotting OSL signal intensity against absorbed laboratory radiation dose. When a DRC is fitted with a single saturating exponential, one of the equation's parameters can be used to define a pragmatic upper limit beyond which uncertainties become large and asymmetric (Wintle and Murray, 2006). However, many sub-samples demonstrate DRCs that are best defined by double saturating exponential equations, which cannot be used to define this upper limit. To investigate the reliability of luminescence ages approaching saturation, Chapot et al. (2012) developed the Natural DRC concept, which uses expected ages derived from independent age control, combined with sample-specific measurements of ambient radioactivity, to calculate expected doses of absorbed radiation during burial. Natural OSL signal intensity is then plotted against these expected doses and compared to laboratory-generated DRCs. Using this approach, discrepancies between natural and laboratory DRCs have been observed for the same mineral material as natural OSL signal intensities saturate at absorbed radiation doses lower than the pragmatic upper limit defined by laboratory DRCs, leading to increasing age underestimation with depth without a metric for questioning the age reliability. The present study explores a means of defining the upper limit for reliable luminescence ages for sedimentary records without an established chronologic framework, using a long ( 280m; Cohen et al., 2016) lacustrine record from Chew Bahir, Ethiopia, drilled as part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Programme (ICDP) and CRC806 "Our way to Europe". Natural saturation of OSL signals is explored by plotting natural signal intensity against depth, creating a pseudo-Natural DRC that can be compared to laboratory DRCs. Unlike the homogenous deposits of the Chinese Loess Plateau where the Natural DRC concept was developed, the 280m composite core from Chew Bahir shows significant variation in lithology enabling investigation of the effects of sample to sample variability on Natural DRC construction, and facilitating comparison between signals from fine-quartz, fine-polymineral, and coarse-potassium feldspar grains. This work demonstrates how the concepts of Natural DRCs can be used to define the upper dating limit of sample suites without independent age control, providing valuable information for long sedimentary sequences such as the lacustrine deposits from Chew Bahir. Chapot M.S., et al. (2012), Radiation Measurements 47: 1045-1052. Cohen A, et al. (2016), Scientific Drilling 21: 1-16. Wintle, A.G., Murray, A.S. (2006) Radiation Measurements 41: 369-391.

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Plutonium Critical Mass Curve Comparison to Mass at Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) Using Whisper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alwin, Jennifer Louise; Zhang, Ning

Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the MCNP ® Monte Carlo radiation transport package. Standard approaches to validation rely on the selection of benchmarks based upon expert judgment. Whisper uses sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods to select relevant benchmarks to a particular application or set of applications being analyzed. Using these benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin. Whisper attempts to quantify the margin of subcriticality (MOS) from errors in software and uncertainties in nuclear data. The combination of the Whisper-derived calculational margin and MOS comprise the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL), tomore » which an additional margin may be applied by the nuclear criticality safety analyst as appropriate to ensure subcriticality. A series of critical mass curves for plutonium, similar to those found in Figure 31 of LA-10860-MS, have been generated using MCNP6.1.1 and the iterative parameter study software, WORM_Solver. The baseline USL for each of the data points of the curves was then computed using Whisper 1.1. The USL was then used to determine the equivalent mass for plutonium metal-water system. ANSI/ANS-8.1 states that it is acceptable to use handbook data, such as the data directly from the LA-10860-MS, as it is already considered validated (Section 4.3 4) “Use of subcritical limit data provided in ANSI/ANS standards or accepted reference publications does not require further validation.”). This paper attempts to take a novel approach to visualize traditional critical mass curves and allows comparison with the amount of mass for which the k eff is equal to the USL (calculational margin + margin of subcriticality). However, the intent is to plot the critical mass data along with USL, not to suggest that already accepted handbook data should have new and more rigorous requirements for validation.« less

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling.

PubMed

Pisso, I; Myhre, C Lund; Platt, S M; Eckhardt, S; Hermansen, O; Schmidbauer, N; Mienert, J; Vadakkepuliyambatta, S; Bauguitte, S; Pitt, J; Allen, G; Bower, K N; O'Shea, S; Gallagher, M W; Percival, C J; Pyle, J; Cain, M; Stohl, A

2016-12-16

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model-supported analysis of the atmospheric CH 4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH 4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH 4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH 4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH 4 fluxes. The CH 4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m -2  s -1 in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH 4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr -1 . All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling

PubMed Central

Myhre, C. Lund; Platt, S. M.; Eckhardt, S.; Hermansen, O.; Schmidbauer, N.; Mienert, J.; Vadakkepuliyambatta, S.; Bauguitte, S.; Pitt, J.; Allen, G.; Bower, K. N.; O'Shea, S.; Gallagher, M. W.; Percival, C. J.; Pyle, J.; Cain, M.; Stohl, A.

2016-01-01

Abstract Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model‐supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m−2 s−1 in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr−1. All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported. PMID:28261536

Constraints on oceanic methane emissions west of Svalbard from atmospheric in situ measurements and Lagrangian transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisso, I.; Myhre, C. Lund; Platt, S. M.; Eckhardt, S.; Hermansen, O.; Schmidbauer, N.; Mienert, J.; Vadakkepuliyambatta, S.; Bauguitte, S.; Pitt, J.; Allen, G.; Bower, K. N.; O'Shea, S.; Gallagher, M. W.; Percival, C. J.; Pyle, J.; Cain, M.; Stohl, A.

2016-12-01

Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model-supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m-2 s-1 in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr-1. All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2015-01-01

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Probabilistic migration modelling focused on functional barrier efficiency and low migration concepts in support of risk assessment.

PubMed

Brandsch, Rainer

2017-10-01

Migration modelling provides reliable migration estimates from food-contact materials (FCM) to food or food simulants based on mass-transfer parameters like diffusion and partition coefficients related to individual materials. In most cases, mass-transfer parameters are not readily available from the literature and for this reason are estimated with a given uncertainty. Historically, uncertainty was accounted for by introducing upper limit concepts first, turning out to be of limited applicability due to highly overestimated migration results. Probabilistic migration modelling gives the possibility to consider uncertainty of the mass-transfer parameters as well as other model inputs. With respect to a functional barrier, the most important parameters among others are the diffusion properties of the functional barrier and its thickness. A software tool that accepts distribution as inputs and is capable of applying Monte Carlo methods, i.e., random sampling from the input distributions of the relevant parameters (i.e., diffusion coefficient and layer thickness), predicts migration results with related uncertainty and confidence intervals. The capabilities of probabilistic migration modelling are presented in the view of three case studies (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) functional barrier efficiency and (3) validation by experimental testing. Based on the predicted migration by probabilistic migration modelling and related exposure estimates, safety evaluation of new materials in the context of existing or new packaging concepts is possible. Identifying associated migration risk and potential safety concerns in the early stage of packaging development is possible. Furthermore, dedicated material selection exhibiting required functional barrier efficiency under application conditions becomes feasible. Validation of the migration risk assessment by probabilistic migration modelling through a minimum of dedicated experimental testing is strongly recommended.

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, Byron A.; Baumhefner, David P.

1990-01-01

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The detectability of brown dwarfs - Predictions and uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, L. A.; Rappaport, S.; Joss, P. C.

1993-01-01

In order to determine the likelihood for the detection of isolated brown dwarfs in ground-based observations as well as in future spaced-based astronomy missions, and in order to evaluate the significance of any detections that might be made, we must first know the expected surface density of brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere as a function of limiting magnitude, wavelength band, and Galactic latitude. It is the purpose of this paper to provide theoretical estimates of this surface density, as well as the range of uncertainty in these estimates resulting from various theoretical uncertainties. We first present theoretical cooling curves for low-mass stars that we have computed with the latest version of our stellar evolution code. We use our evolutionary results to compute theoretical brown-dwarf luminosity functions for a wide range of assumed initial mass functions and stellar birth rate functions. The luminosity functions, in turn, are utilized to compute theoretical surface density functions for brown dwarfs on the celestial sphere. We find, in particular, that for reasonable theoretical assumptions, the currently available upper bounds on the brown-dwarf surface density are consistent with the possibility that brown dwarfs contribute a substantial fraction of the mass of the Galactic disk.

Value of information analysis as a decision support tool for biosecurity: Chapter 15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Rout, Tracy; Spring, Daniel; Walshe, Terry

2017-01-01

This chapter demonstrates the economic concept of ‘value of information’(VOI), and how biosecurity managers can use VOI analysis to decide whether or not to reduce uncertainty by collecting additional information through monitoring, experimentation, or some other form of research. We first explore how some uncertainties may be scientifically interesting to resolve, but ultimately irrelevant to decision-making. We then develop a prototype model where a manager must choose between eradication or containment of an infestation. Eradication is more cost-effective for smaller infestations, but once the extent reaches a certain size it becomes more cost-effective to contain. When choosing between eradication and containment, how much does knowing the extent of the infestation more exactly improve the outcome of the decision? We calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) about the extent, which provides an upper limit for the value of reducing uncertainty. We then illustrate the approach using the example of red imported fire ant management in south-east Queensland. We calculate the EVPI for three different uncertain variables: the extent of the infestation, the sensitivity (true positive rate) of remote sensing, and the efficacy of baiting.

Sensitivity-Uncertainty Based Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Forrest B.

2016-09-20

These are slides from a seminar given to the University of Mexico Nuclear Engineering Department. Whisper is a statistical analysis package developed to support nuclear criticality safety validation. It uses the sensitivity profile data for an application as computed by MCNP6 along with covariance files for the nuclear data to determine a baseline upper-subcritical-limit for the application. Whisper and its associated benchmark files are developed and maintained as part of MCNP6, and will be distributed with all future releases of MCNP6. Although sensitivity-uncertainty methods for NCS validation have been under development for 20 years, continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes such asmore » MCNP could not determine the required adjoint-weighted tallies for sensitivity profiles. The recent introduction of the iterated fission probability method into MCNP led to the rapid development of sensitivity analysis capabilities for MCNP6 and the development of Whisper. Sensitivity-uncertainty based methods represent the future for NCS validation – making full use of today’s computer power to codify past approaches based largely on expert judgment. Validation results are defensible, auditable, and repeatable as needed with different assumptions and process models. The new methods can supplement, support, and extend traditional validation approaches.« less

Theoretical study of thorium monoxide for the electron electric dipole moment search: electronic properties of H(3)Δ(1) in ThO.

PubMed

Skripnikov, L V; Titov, A V

2015-01-14

Recently, improved limits on the electron electric dipole moment, and dimensionless constant, kT,P, characterizing the strength of the T,P-odd pseudoscalar-scalar electron-nucleus neutral current interaction in the H(3)Δ1 state of ThO molecule were obtained by the ACME collaboration [J. Baron et al., Science 343, 269 (2014)]. The interpretation of the experiment in terms of these fundamental quantities is based on the results of theoretical study of appropriate ThO characteristics, the effective electric field acting on electron, Eeff, and a parameter of the T,P-odd pseudoscalar-scalar interaction, WT,P, given in Skripnikov et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 139, 221103 (2013)] by St. Petersburg group. To reduce the uncertainties of the given limits, we report improved calculations of the molecular state-specific quantities Eeff, 81.5 GV/cm, and WT,P, 112 kHz, with the uncertainty within 7% of the magnitudes. Thus, the values recommended to use for the upper limits of the quantities are 75.8 GV/cm and 104 kHz, correspondingly. The hyperfine structure constant, molecule-frame dipole moment of the H(3)Δ1 state, and the H(3)Δ1 → X(1)Σ(+) transition energy which, in general, can serve as a measure of reliability of the obtained Eeff and WT,P values are also calculated. In addition, we report the first calculation of g-factor for the H(3)Δ1 state of ThO. The results are compared to the earlier experimental and theoretical studies, and a detailed analysis of uncertainties of the calculations is given.

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

The relative importance of random error and observation frequency in detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-11-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

STATISTICS OF GAMMA-RAY POINT SOURCES BELOW THE FERMI DETECTION LIMIT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malyshev, Dmitry; Hogg, David W., E-mail: dm137@nyu.edu

2011-09-10

An analytic relation between the statistics of photons in pixels and the number counts of multi-photon point sources is used to constrain the distribution of gamma-ray point sources below the Fermi detection limit at energies above 1 GeV and at latitudes below and above 30 deg. The derived source-count distribution is consistent with the distribution found by the Fermi Collaboration based on the first Fermi point-source catalog. In particular, we find that the contribution of resolved and unresolved active galactic nuclei (AGNs) to the total gamma-ray flux is below 20%-25%. In the best-fit model, the AGN-like point-source fraction is 17%more » {+-} 2%. Using the fact that the Galactic emission varies across the sky while the extragalactic diffuse emission is isotropic, we put a lower limit of 51% on Galactic diffuse emission and an upper limit of 32% on the contribution from extragalactic weak sources, such as star-forming galaxies. Possible systematic uncertainties are discussed.« less

Neutrino mass from cosmology: impact of high-accuracy measurement of the Hubble constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiguchi, Toyokazu; Ichikawa, Kazuhide; Takahashi, Tomo; Greenhill, Lincoln

2010-03-01

Non-zero neutrino mass would affect the evolution of the Universe in observable ways, and a strong constraint on the mass can be achieved using combinations of cosmological data sets. We focus on the power spectrum of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, the Hubble constant H0, and the length scale for baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) to investigate the constraint on the neutrino mass, mν. We analyze data from multiple existing CMB studies (WMAP5, ACBAR, CBI, BOOMERANG, and QUAD), recent measurement of H0 (SHOES), with about two times lower uncertainty (5 %) than previous estimates, and recent treatments of BAO from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We obtained an upper limit of mν < 0.2eV (95 % C.L.), for a flat ΛCDM model. This is a 40 % reduction in the limit derived from previous H0 estimates and one-third lower than can be achieved with extant CMB and BAO data. We also analyze the impact of smaller uncertainty on measurements of H0 as may be anticipated in the near term, in combination with CMB data from the Planck mission, and BAO data from the SDSS/BOSS program. We demonstrate the possibility of a 5σ detection for a fiducial neutrino mass of 0.1 eV or a 95 % upper limit of 0.04 eV for a fiducial of mν = 0 eV. These constraints are about 50 % better than those achieved without external constraint. We further investigate the impact on modeling where the dark-energy equation of state is constant but not necessarily -1, or where a non-flat universe is allowed. In these cases, the next-generation accuracies of Planck, BOSS, and 1 % measurement of H0 would all be required to obtain the limit mν < 0.05-0.06 eV (95 % C.L.) for the fiducial of mν = 0 eV. The independence of systematics argues for pursuit of both BAO and H0 measurements.

A Determination of the Intergalactic Redshift Dependent UV-Optical-NIR Photon Density Using Deep Galaxy Survey Data and the Gamma-Ray Opacity of the Universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, Floyd W.

2012-01-01

We calculate the intensity and photon spectrum of the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of red shift using an approach based on observational data obtained at in different wavelength bands from local to deep galaxy surveys. Our empirically based approach allows us, for the firs.t time, to obtain a completely model independent determination of the IBL and to quantify its uncertainties. Using our results on the IBL, we then place upper and lower limits on the opacity of the universe to gamma-rays, independent of previous constraints.

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, L. J.; Elgart, S. R.; Milder, C. M.; Shavers, M. R.; Semones, E. J.; Huff, J. L.

2017-01-01

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Addressing Systematic Errors in Correlation Tracking on HMI Magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, Sushant S.; Hathaway, David H.; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Martens, Petrus C.

2017-08-01

Correlation tracking in solar magnetograms is an effective method to measure the differential rotation and meridional flow on the solar surface. However, since the tracking accuracy required to successfully measure meridional flow is very high, small systematic errors have a noticeable impact on measured meridional flow profiles. Additionally, the uncertainties of this kind of measurements have been historically underestimated, leading to controversy regarding flow profiles at high latitudes extracted from measurements which are unreliable near the solar limb.Here we present a set of systematic errors we have identified (and potential solutions), including bias caused by physical pixel sizes, center-to-limb systematics, and discrepancies between measurements performed using different time intervals. We have developed numerical techniques to get rid of these systematic errors and in the process improve the accuracy of the measurements by an order of magnitude.We also present a detailed analysis of uncertainties in these measurements using synthetic magnetograms and the quantification of an upper limit below which meridional flow measurements cannot be trusted as a function of latitude.

Bump hunting in LHC t t ¯ events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, Michal; Heymes, David; Mitov, Alexander

2016-12-01

We demonstrate that a purposefully normalized next-to-next-to-leading-order mt t ¯ differential spectrum can have very small theoretical uncertainty and, in particular, a small sensitivity to the top quark mass. Such an observable can thus be a very effective bump-hunting tool for resonances decaying to t t ¯ events during LHC run II and beyond. To illustrate how the approach works, we concentrate on one specific example of current interest, namely, the possible 750 GeV digamma excess resonance Φ . Considering only theoretical uncertainties, we demonstrate that it is possible to distinguish p p →Φ →t t ¯ signals studied in the recent literature [Hespel, Maltoni, and Vryonidou, J. High Energy Phys. 10 (2016) 016, 10.1007/JHEP10(2016)016] from the pure Standard Model background with very high significance. Alternatively, in the case of nonobservation, a strong upper limit on the decay rate Φ →t t ¯ can be placed.

Calibration of the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jarnot, R. F.; Cofield, R. E.; Waters, J. W.; Flower, D. A.; Peckham, G. E.

1996-01-01

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) is a three-radiometer, passive, limb emission instrument onboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Radiometric, spectral and field-of-view calibrations of the MLS instrument are described in this paper. In-orbit noise performance, gain stability, spectral baseline and dynamic range are described, as well as use of in-flight data for validation and refinement of prelaunch calibrations. Estimated systematic scaling uncertainties (3 sigma) on calibrated limb radiances from prelaunch calibrations are 2.6% in bands 1 through 3, 3.4% in band 4, and 6% in band 5. The observed systematic errors in band 6 are about 15%, consistent with prelaunch calibration uncertainties. Random uncertainties on individual limb radiance measurements are very close to the levels predicted from measured radiometer noise temperature, with negligible contribution from noise and drifts on the regular in-flight gain calibration measurements.

Probabilistic biosphere modeling for the long-term safety assessment of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste using first- and second-order Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Ciecior, Willy; Röhlig, Klaus-Jürgen; Kirchner, Gerald

2018-10-01

In the present paper, deterministic as well as first- and second-order probabilistic biosphere modeling approaches are compared. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the influence of the probability distribution function shape (empirical distribution functions and fitted lognormal probability functions) representing the aleatory uncertainty (also called variability) of a radioecological model parameter as well as the role of interacting parameters are studied. Differences in the shape of the output distributions for the biosphere dose conversion factor from first-order Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis using empirical and fitted lognormal distribution functions for input parameters suggest that a lognormal approximation is possibly not always an adequate representation of the aleatory uncertainty of a radioecological parameter. Concerning the comparison of the impact of aleatory and epistemic parameter uncertainty on the biosphere dose conversion factor, the latter here is described using uncertain moments (mean, variance) while the distribution itself represents the aleatory uncertainty of the parameter. From the results obtained, the solution space of second-order Monte Carlo simulation is much larger than that from first-order Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the influence of epistemic uncertainty of a radioecological parameter on the output result is much larger than that one caused by its aleatory uncertainty. Parameter interactions are only of significant influence in the upper percentiles of the distribution of results as well as only in the region of the upper percentiles of the model parameters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The `Heisenberg's Microscope' as an Example of Using Thought Experiments in Teaching Physics Theories to Students of the Upper Secondary School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velentzas, Athanasios; Halkia, Krystallia

2011-08-01

In this work an attempt is made to explore the possible value of using Thought Experiments (TEs) in teaching physics to upper secondary education students. Specifically, a qualitative research project is designed to investigate the extent to which the Thought Experiment (TE) called `Heisenberg's Microscope', as it has been transformed by Gamow for the public in his book Mr. Tompkins in Paperback, can function as a tool in the teaching of the `uncertainty principle'. The sample in the research consisted of 40 Greek students, in 11 groups of 3-4 students each. The findings of this study reveal that the use of this TE has positive results in teaching the uncertainty principle. Students, based on the TE, were able (i) to derive a formula of the uncertainty principle, (ii) to explain that the uncertainty principle is a general principle in nature and it is not a result of incompleteness of the experimental devices and (iii) to argue that it is impossible to determine the trajectory of a particle as a mathematical line.

Uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose from a brain receptor imaging agent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aydogan, B.; Miller, L.F.; Sparks, R.B.

Absorbed dose estimates are known to contain uncertainties. A recent literature search indicates that prior to this study no rigorous investigation of uncertainty associated with absorbed dose has been undertaken. A method of uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose calculations has been developed and implemented for the brain receptor imaging agent {sup 123}I-IPT. The two major sources of uncertainty considered were the uncertainty associated with the determination of residence time and that associated with the determination of the S values. There are many sources of uncertainty in the determination of the S values, but only the inter-patient organ mass variation wasmore » considered in this work. The absorbed dose uncertainties were determined for lung, liver, heart and brain. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals of the organ absorbed dose distributions for each patient and for a seven-patient population group were determined by the ``Latin Hypercube Sampling`` method. For an individual patient, the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose was found to be about 2.5 times larger than the estimated mean absorbed dose. For the seven-patient population the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose distribution was around 45% more than the estimated population mean. For example, the 95% confidence interval of the population liver dose distribution was found to be between 1.49E+0.7 Gy/MBq and 4.65E+07 Gy/MBq with a mean of 2.52E+07 Gy/MBq. This study concluded that patients in a population receiving {sup 123}I-IPT could receive absorbed doses as much as twice as large as the standard estimated absorbed dose due to these uncertainties.« less

When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain outcome, people expressed greater concern about the projected outcomes. In a further experiment involving repeated "games" with a simulated economy, we similarly showed that people allocate more resources to mitigation if there is uncertainty about the timing of an adverse event rather than about the magnitude of its impact.

A comparison of the momentum budget in reanalysis datasets during sudden stratospheric warming events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martineau, Patrick; Son, Seok-Woo; Taguchi, Masakazu; Butler, Amy H.

2018-05-01

The agreement between reanalysis datasets, in terms of the zonal-mean momentum budget, is evaluated during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. It is revealed that there is a good agreement among datasets in the lower stratosphere and troposphere concerning zonal-mean zonal wind, but less so in the upper stratosphere. Forcing terms of the momentum equation are also relatively similar in the lower atmosphere, but their uncertainties are typically larger than uncertainties of the zonal-wind tendency. Similar to zonal-wind tendency, the agreement among forcing terms is degraded in the upper stratosphere. Discrepancies among reanalyses increase during the onset of SSW events, a period characterized by unusually large fluxes of planetary-scale waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and decrease substantially after the onset. While the largest uncertainties in the resolved terms of the momentum budget are found in the Coriolis torque, momentum flux convergence also presents a non-negligible spread among the reanalyses. Such a spread is reduced in the latest reanalysis products, decreasing the uncertainty of the momentum budget. It is also found that the uncertainties in the Coriolis torque depend on the strength of SSW events: the SSW events that exhibit the most intense deceleration of zonal-mean zonal wind are subject to larger discrepancies among reanalyses. These uncertainties in stratospheric circulation, however, are not communicated to the troposphere.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, Robin; Challenor, Peter

2014-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM's heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters.

Quantifying the value of redundant measurements at GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network sites

DOE PAGES

Madonna, F.; Rosoldi, M.; Güldner, J.; ...

2014-11-19

The potential for measurement redundancy to reduce uncertainty in atmospheric variables has not been investigated comprehensively for climate observations. We evaluated the usefulness of entropy and mutual correlation concepts, as defined in information theory, for quantifying random uncertainty and redundancy in time series of the integrated water vapour (IWV) and water vapour mixing ratio profiles provided by five highly instrumented GRUAN (GCOS, Global Climate Observing System, Reference Upper-Air Network) stations in 2010–2012. Results show that the random uncertainties on the IWV measured with radiosondes, global positioning system, microwave and infrared radiometers, and Raman lidar measurements differed by less than 8%.more » Comparisons of time series of IWV content from ground-based remote sensing instruments with in situ soundings showed that microwave radiometers have the highest redundancy with the IWV time series measured by radiosondes and therefore the highest potential to reduce the random uncertainty of the radiosondes time series. Moreover, the random uncertainty of a time series from one instrument can be reduced by ~ 60% by constraining the measurements with those from another instrument. The best reduction of random uncertainty is achieved by conditioning Raman lidar measurements with microwave radiometer measurements. In conclusion, specific instruments are recommended for atmospheric water vapour measurements at GRUAN sites. This approach can be applied to the study of redundant measurements for other climate variables.« less

Water and energy and hydrological limitations of whole-plant conductance along a subalpine forested hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Klatt, A. L.; Ewers, B. E.

2016-12-01

Whole-plant hydraulic conductance is now used in many processed-based ecohydrological models running at the plot to regional scales. Many models, such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), predict entire ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) based on a single unvarying plant conductance parameter that assumes no variation in plant traits. However, whole-plant conductance varies in space, time, and with topography. Understanding this variation increases model predictive power for stand and ecosystem level estimates of ET, ultimately reducing uncertainty in predictions of the water balance. We hypothesize that whole-plant conductance (Kw) is water limited in the up-slope stands due to water flow paths and energy limited in down-slope stands due to shading. To test this hypothesis in two adjacent stands in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming. Both mixed conifer stands were south-facing, with the upper stand being 300 m above the down-slope stand. Whole-plant conductance was quantified measuring sapflow (Js) and leaf water potential (WPL) throughout the growing season. To quantify Js, each stand was instrumented with 30 Granier-type sapflow sensors. Leaf-water potentials were measured in monthly 48-hour campaigns sampling every 3 hours. The upper slope stand exhibited significantly lower Kw (approximately 35% lower in spruce and pine) and decreased throughout the growing season, driven by drying soils resulting in lower predawn WPL. In contrast, the down-slope stand Kw peaked in July before decreasing for rest of the summer. Down-slope predawn WPL maintained a consistent predawn WPL until October reflecting consistent water input from the upper slopes and ground water. Including this topographical variation in whole-plant conductance will increase the predictive power of models simulating evapotranspiration at the watershed scale.

Measurements of the absolute branching fractions of B+→Xc c ¯K+ and B+→D¯(*)0π+ at Belle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Y.; Iijima, T.; Adachi, I.; Aihara, H.; Al Said, S.; Asner, D. M.; Aulchenko, V.; Aushev, T.; Ayad, R.; Babu, V.; Badhrees, I.; Bakich, A. M.; Bansal, V.; Barberio, E.; Behera, P.; Bhardwaj, V.; Bhuyan, B.; Biswal, J.; Bozek, A.; Bračko, M.; Browder, T. E.; Červenkov, D.; Chang, P.; Cheaib, R.; Chekelian, V.; Chen, A.; Cheon, B. G.; Chilikin, K.; Cho, K.; Choi, S.-K.; Choi, Y.; Cinabro, D.; Czank, T.; Dash, N.; Di Carlo, S.; Doležal, Z.; Drásal, Z.; Dutta, D.; Eidelman, S.; Epifanov, D.; Fast, J. E.; Ferber, T.; Fulsom, B. G.; Gaur, V.; Gabyshev, N.; Garmash, A.; Gelb, M.; Goldenzweig, P.; Greenwald, D.; Guido, E.; Haba, J.; Hayasaka, K.; Hayashii, H.; Hedges, M. T.; Hirose, S.; Hou, W.-S.; Inami, K.; Inguglia, G.; Ishikawa, A.; Itoh, R.; Iwasaki, M.; Iwasaki, Y.; Jacobs, W. W.; Jaegle, I.; Jeon, H. B.; Jin, Y.; Joo, K. K.; Julius, T.; Kaliyar, A. B.; Kang, K. H.; Karyan, G.; Kawasaki, T.; Kichimi, H.; Kiesling, C.; Kim, D. Y.; Kim, J. B.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. J.; Kinoshita, K.; Kodyš, P.; Korpar, S.; Kotchetkov, D.; Križan, P.; Kroeger, R.; Krokovny, P.; Kuhr, T.; Kulasiri, R.; Kuzmin, A.; Kwon, Y.-J.; Lange, J. S.; Lee, I. S.; Li, C. H.; Li, L.; Li Gioi, L.; Libby, J.; Liventsev, D.; Lubej, M.; Luo, T.; Masuda, M.; Matsuda, T.; Merola, M.; Miyabayashi, K.; Miyata, H.; Mizuk, R.; Mohanty, G. B.; Moon, H. K.; Mori, T.; Mussa, R.; Nakano, E.; Nakao, M.; Nanut, T.; Nath, K. J.; Natkaniec, Z.; Nayak, M.; Niiyama, M.; Nisar, N. K.; Nishida, S.; Ogawa, S.; Okuno, S.; Ono, H.; Pakhlov, P.; Pakhlova, G.; Pal, B.; Park, C.-S.; Park, C. W.; Park, H.; Paul, S.; Pedlar, T. K.; Pestotnik, R.; Piilonen, L. E.; Ritter, M.; Rostomyan, A.; Sakai, Y.; Salehi, M.; Sandilya, S.; Sato, Y.; Savinov, V.; Schneider, O.; Schnell, G.; Schwanda, C.; Schwartz, A. J.; Seino, Y.; Senyo, K.; Sevior, M. E.; Shebalin, V.; Shen, C. P.; Shibata, T.-A.; Shiu, J.-G.; Simon, F.; Sokolov, A.; Solovieva, E.; Starič, M.; Strube, J. F.; Sumihama, M.; Sumisawa, K.; Sumiyoshi, T.; Takizawa, M.; Tamponi, U.; Tanida, K.; Tenchini, F.; Trabelsi, K.; Uchida, M.; Uehara, S.; Uglov, T.; Unno, Y.; Uno, S.; Urquijo, P.; Usov, Y.; Van Hulse, C.; Varner, G.; Varvell, K. E.; Vorobyev, V.; Wang, C. H.; Wang, M.-Z.; Wang, P.; Watanabe, M.; Watanuki, S.; Widmann, E.; Won, E.; Yamashita, Y.; Ye, H.; Yelton, J.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yusa, Y.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhilich, V.; Zhukova, V.; Zhulanov, V.; Zupanc, A.; Belle Collaboration

2018-01-01

We present the measurement of the absolute branching fractions of B+→Xc c ¯K+ and B+→D¯ (*)0π+ decays, using a data sample of 772 ×106 B B ¯ pairs collected at the ϒ (4 S ) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e+e- collider. Here, Xc c ¯ denotes ηc, J /ψ , χc 0, χc 1, ηc(2 S ), ψ (2 S ), ψ (3770 ), X (3872 ), and X (3915 ). We do not observe significant signals for X (3872 ) or X (3915 ) and set the 90% confidence level upper limits at B (B+→X (3872 )K+)<2.6 ×10-4 and B (B+→X (3915 )K+)<2.8 ×10-4 . These represent the most stringent upper limit for B (B+→X (3872 )K+) to date and the first limit for B (B+→X (3915 )K+). The measured branching fractions for ηc and ηc(2 S ) are the most precise to date, B (B+→ηcK+)=(12.0 ±0.8 ±0.7 )×10-4 and B (B+→ηc(2 S )K+)=(4.8 ±1.1 ±0.3 )×10-4 , where the first and second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively.

The Search for Muon Neutrinos from Northern Hemisphere Gamma-Ray Bursts with AMANDA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achterberg, A.; Ackermann, M.; Bernardini, E.

2008-02-10

We present the results of the analysis of neutrino observations by the Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA) correlated with photon observations of more than 400 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) in the northern hemisphere from 1997 to 2003. During this time period, AMANDA's effective collection area for muon neutrinos was larger than that of any other existing detector. After the application of various selection criteria to our data, we expect {approx}1 neutrino event and <2 background events. Based on our observations of zero events during and immediately prior to the GRBs in the data set, we set the most stringentmore » upper limit on muon neutrino emission correlated with GRBs. Assuming a Waxman-Bahcall spectrum and incorporating all systematic uncertainties, our flux upper limit has a normalization at 1 PeV of E{sup 2}{phi}{sub {nu}} {<=} 6.3 x 10{sup -9} GeV cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} sr{sup -1}, with 90% of the events expected within the energy range of {approx}10 TeV to {approx}3 PeV. The impact of this limit on several theoretical models of GRBs is discussed, as well as the future potential for detection of GRBs by next-generation neutrino telescopes. Finally, we briefly describe several modifications to this analysis in order to apply it to other types of transient point sources.« less

Decision Support Modeling for Water-Use Planning With Sparse Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brainard, J. R.; Williams, A. A.; Tidwell, V. C.

2006-12-01

In the face of the combined impacts of drought and increased water demand in the arid southwest, water resource managers are more frequently being called upon to solve contentious water management issues. Such efforts are often confounded by sparse and inexact data. System dynamics provides a valuable modeling framework to explore pertinent uncertainties and test alternative system conceptualizations. In particular, the quickness of simulations and the object oriented modeling environment allows for efficient investigations into system uncertainty. Through sensitivity studies, the limits of uncertain variables can be determined and the accuracy of the underlying conceptual model can be tested. Here we apply system dynamic modeling to a New Mexico Office of the State Engineer Active Water Resource Management Priority Basin in southwest New Mexico where water managers are faced with developing water allocation plans under drought conditions. The Mimbres River Basin, one of several closed north-south trending structural basins in southwestern New Mexico, has a total drainage area of 13,300 km2 (5,140 mi2), most of which overlies an economically significant aquifer comprised of Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium. The Mimbres River heads in the Black and Los Pinos Mountain Ranges where elevations reach 3,051 m (10,011 ft) above sea level. The river is perennial in a segment of the upper reach where the basin is relatively narrow and where groundwater is limited. In this perennial reach, the Mimbres River is used extensively for agricultural irrigation in which those with senior rights are downstream of those with junior rights. Domestic wells, most of which have junior rights, impact river flow through pumping from the accompanying alluvial aquifer. This modeling effort concentrates on the upper reach of the Mimbres River where continued drought is expected to result in water shortages creating conflicts between water users. Objectives of this effort are 1) to develop a physically based model that can be used by water managers to explore the outcomes of various water management scenarios under a full spectrum of hydrologic conditions and social demands placed on the system, and 2) to identify significant data gaps and uncertainty that impacts the ability to make sound science-based water management decisions, and 3) to evaluate how uncertainties should be communicated and addressed in the planning process. The model uses physically based calculations to explore relationships between climate and other variables of interest such as vegetative water consumption from riparian communities and agriculture crops and to explore climate driven impacts on surface and ground water availability.

77 FR 58204 - International Joint Commission Invites Public Comment on Upper Great Lakes Report via...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-19

... of its International Upper Great Lakes Study Board, Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty... for comments has also been extended to September 30, 2012. The Study examines whether the regulation of outflows from Lake Superior through the compensating works and power dams on the St. Marys River...

How Reliable is Bayesian Model Averaging Under Noisy Data? Statistical Assessment and Implications for Robust Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Bayesian model averaging ranks the predictive capabilities of alternative conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. The individual models are weighted with their posterior probability to be the best one in the considered set of models. Finally, their predictions are combined into a robust weighted average and the predictive uncertainty can be quantified. This rigorous procedure does, however, not yet account for possible instabilities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set. This is a major drawback, since posterior model weights may suffer a lack of robustness related to the uncertainty in noisy data, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. We present a new statistical concept to account for measurement noise as source of uncertainty for the weights in Bayesian model averaging. Our suggested upgrade reflects the limited information content of data for the purpose of model selection. It allows us to assess the significance of the determined posterior model weights, the confidence in model selection, and the accuracy of the quantified predictive uncertainty. Our approach rests on a brute-force Monte Carlo framework. We determine the robustness of model weights against measurement noise by repeatedly perturbing the observed data with random realizations of measurement error. Then, we analyze the induced variability in posterior model weights and introduce this "weighting variance" as an additional term into the overall prediction uncertainty analysis scheme. We further determine the theoretical upper limit in performance of the model set which is imposed by measurement noise. As an extension to the merely relative model ranking, this analysis provides a measure of absolute model performance. To finally decide, whether better data or longer time series are needed to ensure a robust basis for model selection, we resample the measurement time series and assess the convergence of model weights for increasing time series length. We illustrate our suggested approach with an application to model selection between different soil-plant models following up on a study by Wöhling et al. (2013). Results show that measurement noise compromises the reliability of model ranking and causes a significant amount of weighting uncertainty, if the calibration data time series is not long enough to compensate for its noisiness. This additional contribution to the overall predictive uncertainty is neglected without our approach. Thus, we strongly advertise to include our suggested upgrade in the Bayesian model averaging routine.

Should radon be reduced in homes? A cost-effect analysis.

PubMed

Stigum, Hein; Strand, Terje; Magnus, Per

2003-02-01

Radon is a radioactive gas that may leak into buildings from the ground. Radon exposure is a risk factor for lung cancer. An intervention against radon exposure in homes may consist of locating homes with high radon exposure (above 200 Bq m(-3)) and improving these, and protecting future houses. The purpose of this paper is to calculate the costs and the effects of this intervention. We performed a cost-effect analysis from the perspective of the society, followed by an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The distribution of radon levels in Norwegian homes is lognormal with mean = 74.5 Bq m(-3), and 7.6% above 200 Bq m(-3). The preventable attributable fraction of radon on lung cancer was 3.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 0.6%, 8.3%). In cumulative present values the intervention would cost $238 (145, 310) million and save 892 (133, 1981) lives; each life saved costs $0.27 (0.09, 0.9) million. The cost-effect ratio was sensitive to the radon risk, the radon exposure distribution, and the latency period of lung cancer. Together these three parameters explained 90% of the variation in the cost-effect ratio. The uncertainty in the estimated cost per life is large, mainly due to uncertainty in the risk of lung cancer from radon. Based on estimates from road construction, the Norwegian society has been willing to pay $1 million to save a life. This is above the upper uncertainty limit of the cost per life. The intervention against radon in homes, therefore, seems justifiable.

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

PubMed

Land, Charles E

2009-11-01

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Stochastic Modeling of Sediment Connectivity for Reconstructing Sand Fluxes and Origins in the Unmonitored Se Kong, Se San, and Sre Pok Tributaries of the Mekong River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J. P.; Bizzi, S.; Castelletti, A. F.; Kondolf, G. M.

2018-01-01

Sediment supply to rivers, subsequent fluvial transport, and the resulting sediment connectivity on network scales are often sparsely monitored and subject to major uncertainty. We propose to approach that uncertainty by adopting a stochastic method for modeling network sediment connectivity, which we present for the Se Kong, Se San, and Sre Pok (3S) tributaries of the Mekong. We quantify how unknown properties of sand sources translate into uncertainty regarding network connectivity by running the CASCADE (CAtchment Sediment Connectivity And DElivery) modeling framework in a Monte Carlo approach for 7,500 random realizations. Only a small ensemble of realizations reproduces downstream observations of sand transport. This ensemble presents an inverse stochastic approximation of the magnitude and variability of transport capacity, sediment flux, and grain size distribution of the sediment transported in the network (i.e., upscaling point observations to the entire network). The approximated magnitude of sand delivered from each tributary to the Mekong is controlled by reaches of low transport capacity ("bottlenecks"). These bottlenecks limit the ability to predict transport in the upper parts of the catchment through inverse stochastic approximation, a limitation that could be addressed by targeted monitoring upstream of identified bottlenecks. Nonetheless, bottlenecks also allow a clear partitioning of natural sand deliveries from the 3S to the Mekong, with the Se Kong delivering less (1.9 Mt/yr) and coarser (median grain size: 0.4 mm) sand than the Se San (5.3 Mt/yr, 0.22 mm) and Sre Pok (11 Mt/yr, 0.19 mm).

Combining uncertainty factors in deriving human exposure levels of noncarcinogenic toxicants.

PubMed

Kodell, R L; Gaylor, D W

1999-01-01

Acceptable levels of human exposure to noncarcinogenic toxicants in environmental and occupational settings generally are derived by reducing experimental no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or benchmark doses (BDs) by a product of uncertainty factors (Barnes and Dourson, Ref. 1). These factors are presumed to ensure safety by accounting for uncertainty in dose extrapolation, uncertainty in duration extrapolation, differential sensitivity between humans and animals, and differential sensitivity among humans. The common default value for each uncertainty factor is 10. This paper shows how estimates of means and standard deviations of the approximately log-normal distributions of individual uncertainty factors can be used to estimate percentiles of the distribution of the product of uncertainty factors. An appropriately selected upper percentile, for example, 95th or 99th, of the distribution of the product can be used as a combined uncertainty factor to replace the conventional product of default factors.

Klamath River Reconstruction: Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty in Calibration Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, C. A.; Malevich, S. B.; Meko, D. M.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2013-12-01

The upper Klamath Basin has been the center of conflict over competing water uses and values in recent years, exacerbated by drought conditions. Currently, water needs for irrigation, fish, and riparian environments are being addressed and plans for sharing limited water resources are being negotiated. In a number of major river basins in the western US, extended records of streamflow from tree rings have been found useful for planning by placing recent droughts in a long term context and characterizing the long-term hydrologic variability over past centuries. The focus of this research is the first reconstruction of the upper Klamath River and its potential use for management. One challenge in the reconstruction of Klamath River streamflow is the availability of high quality streamflow data for reconstruction model calibration. In the Klamath basin, a long history of diversions for irrigation along with complex wetland hydrology has made the accurate estimation of natural flows difficult. A number of sources of hydrology are available, but all show differences in magnitudes of high and low flows. While the uncertainties in the calibration streamflow data can be described and quantified, they cannot be overcome, and thus impart uncertainty to the resulting reconstruction. Thus, it is important to develop analysis strategies that highlight the most certain aspects of the reconstruction. In the case of the Klamath River records, the most robust information concerns the sequences of flow, and duration and frequency of wet and dry intervals. In the reconstruction, which extends from 1493-2010, analyses of frequency and distribution of extreme low flow years, runs of consecutive years of low flows, and the probability of transitions between wet and dry years all document long-term natural hydrologic variability, over which the impacts of climate change will be imposed. While not a perfect record of past flow, the Klamath reconstruction provides information that can be useful to management. A challenge is to convey the uncertainties, but to also highlight the information for which we have the most confidence, and why.

Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis—Integrative report 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; James, Daniel A.; Welker, Timothy L.; Parsley, Michael J.

2016-07-15

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis was designed to carry out three components of an assessment of how Missouri River management has affected, and will affect, population dynamics of endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon): (1) collection of reliable scientific information, (2) critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses, and (3) analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. This report is a synthesis of the three components emphasizing development of lines of evidence relating potential future management actions to pallid sturgeon population dynamics. We address 21 working management hypotheses that emerged from an expert opinion-based filtering process.The ability to quantify linkages from abiotic changes to pallid sturgeon population dynamics is compromised by fundamental information gaps. Although a substantial foundation of pallid sturgeon science has been developed during the past 20 years, our efforts attempt to push beyond that understanding to provide predictions of how future management actions may affect pallid sturgeon responses. For some of the 21 hypotheses, lines of evidence are limited to theoretical deduction, inference from sparse empirical datasets, or expert opinion. Useful simulation models have been developed to predict the effects of management actions on survival of drifting pallid sturgeon free embryos in the Yellowstone and Upper Missouri River complex (hereafter referred to as the “upper river”), and to assess the effects of flow and channel reconfigurations on habitat availability in the Lower Missouri River, tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of Gavins Point Dam (hereafter referred to as the “lower river”). A population model also has been developed that can be used to assess sensitivity of the population to survival of specific life stages, assess some hypotheses related to stocking decisions, and explore a limited number of management scenarios.Consideration of lines of evidence for each of the 21 hypotheses includes a discussion of how the degree of uncertainty and risk associated with each hypothesis may guide science and implementation strategies. Implementation strategies include full implementation in the field, limited implementations as field-scale experiments, or (in the case of greatest uncertainty) implementation as learning actions, including research and opportunistic experiments or field-based gradient studies. Given the substantive uncertainties associated with pallid sturgeon population dynamics and the need to continually assimilate and assess new information, we proposed that an Effects Analysis-like process should be considered an integral part of ongoing Missouri River adaptive management.

Current and Future Constraints on Primordial Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Dylan R.; Feng, Chang; Reichardt, Christian L.

2017-09-01

We present new limits on the amplitude of potential primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) using temperature and polarization measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from Planck, the BICEP2/Keck Array, Polarbear, and SPTpol. We reduce twofold the 95% confidence upper limit on the CMB anisotropy power due to a nearly scale-invariant PMF, with an allowed B-mode power at ℓ = 1500 of {D}{\\ell =1500}{BB}< 0.071 μ {K}2 for Planck versus {D}{\\ell =1500}{BB}< 0.034 μ {K}2 for the combined data set. We also forecast the expected limits from soon-to-deploy CMB experiments (like SPT-3G, Adv. ACTpol, or the Simons Array) and the proposed CMB-S4 experiment. Future CMB experiments should dramatically reduce the current uncertainties by one order of magnitude for the near-term experiments and two orders of magnitude for the CMB-S4 experiment. The constraints from CMB-S4 have the potential to rule out much of the parameter space for PMFs.

Robust PI and PID design for first- and second-order processes with zeros, time-delay and structured uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parada, M.; Sbarbaro, D.; Borges, R. A.; Peres, P. L. D.

2017-01-01

The use of robust design techniques such as the one based on ? and ? for tuning proportional integral (PI) and proportional integral derivative (PID) controllers have been limited to address a small set of processes. This work addresses the problem by considering a wide set of possible plants, both first- and second-order continuous-time systems with time delays and zeros, leading to PI and PID controllers. The use of structured uncertainties to handle neglected dynamics allows to expand the range of processes to be considered. The proposed approach takes into account the robustness of the controller with respect to these structured uncertainties by using the small-gain theorem. In addition, improved performance is sought through the minimisation of an upper bound to the closed-loop system ? norm. A Lyapunov-Krasovskii-type functional is used to obtain delay-dependent design conditions. The controller design is accomplished by means of a convex optimisation procedure formulated using linear matrix inequalities. In order to illustrate the flexibility of the approach, several examples considering recycle compensation, reduced-order controller design and a practical implementation are addressed. Numerical experiments are provided in each case to highlight the main characteristics of the proposed design method.

Multisensor fusion with non-optimal decision rules: the challenges of open world sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minor, Christian; Johnson, Kevin

2014-05-01

In this work, simple, generic models of chemical sensing are used to simulate sensor array data and to illustrate the impact on overall system performance that specific design choices impart. The ability of multisensor systems to perform multianalyte detection (i.e., distinguish multiple targets) is explored by examining the distinction between fundamental design-related limitations stemming from mismatching of mixture composition to fused sensor measurement spaces, and limitations that arise from measurement uncertainty. Insight on the limits and potential of sensor fusion to robustly address detection tasks in realistic field conditions can be gained through an examination of a) the underlying geometry of both the composition space of sources one hopes to elucidate and the measurement space a fused sensor system is capable of generating, and b) the informational impact of uncertainty on both of these spaces. For instance, what is the potential impact on sensor fusion in an open world scenario where unknown interferants may contaminate target signals? Under complex and dynamic backgrounds, decision rules may implicitly become non-optimal and adding sensors may increase the amount of conflicting information observed. This suggests that the manner in which a decision rule handles sensor conflict can be critical in leveraging sensor fusion for effective open world sensing, and becomes exponentially more important as more sensors are added. Results and design considerations for handling conflicting evidence in Bayes and Dempster-Shafer fusion frameworks are presented. Bayesian decision theory is used to provide an upper limit on detector performance of simulated sensor systems.

Noise measurements obtained during engineering evaluation of two-segment approaches in a 727-200 aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanner, C. S.; Glass, R. E.

1974-01-01

A series of noise measurements were made during engineering evaluation tests of two-segment approaches in a 727-200 aircraft equipped with acoustically treated nacelles. A two-segment approach having a 6-degree upper glide slope angle intercepting the Instrument Landing System (ILS) 2.9-degree glide slope at an altitude of 690 feet gave a 5-EPNdB decrease in measured noise at distances greater than 3 nautical miles from the runway threshold when compared with a normal ILS approach. Several of the noise measurements were taken under adverse weather conditions which were outside the specified limits of FAR Part 36. This may introduce uncertainties into the data from several approaches.

In situ observations of midlatitude stratospheric ClO and BrO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brune, William H.; Anderson, James C.

1986-01-01

A balloon-borne experiment to measure midlatitude stratospheric BrO and ClO concentrations by NO chemical conversion/atomic resonance fluorescence was flown from Palestine, Texas, on May 20 1986. In this first study of BrO, no signal attributable to BrO was detected, and upper limits (2 sigma uncertainty) between 35 and 24 km altitude give BrO mixing ratios less than 15 pptv. Current models predict mixing ratios that are 1.7 times larger. Measurements of ClO were obtained at less than 0.2-km altitude resolution from 41 to 22 km. The smoothly varying altitude profile lies within the range of two-dimensional model calculations.

Medicaid program; revision to Medicaid upper payment limit requirements for hospital services, nursing facility services, intermediate care facility services for the mentally retarded, and clinic services. Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA), HHS. Final rule.

PubMed

2001-01-12

This final rule modifies the Medicaid upper payment limits for inpatient hospital services, outpatient hospital services, nursing facility services, intermediate care facility services for the mentally retarded, and clinic services. For each type of Medicaid inpatient service, existing regulations place an upper limit on overall aggregate payments to all facilities and a separate aggregate upper limit on payments made to State-operated facilities. This final rule establishes an aggregate upper limit that applies to payments made to government facilities that are not State government-owned or operated, and a separate aggregate upper limit on payments made to privately-owned and operated facilities. This rule also eliminates the overall aggregate upper limit that had applied to these services. With respect to outpatient hospital and clinic services, this final rule establishes an aggregate upper limit on payments made to State government-owned or operated facilities, an aggregate upper limit on payments made to government facilities that are not State government-owned or operated, and an aggregate upper limit on payments made to privately-owned and operated facilities. These separate upper limits are necessary to ensure State Medicaid payment systems promote economy and efficiency. We are allowing a higher upper limit for payment to non-State public hospitals to recognize the higher costs of inpatient and outpatient services in public hospitals. In addition, to ensure continued beneficiary access to care and the ability of States to adjust to the changes in the upper payment limits, the final rule includes a transition period for States with approved rate enhancement State plan amendments.

Data uncertainties in material flow analysis: Municipal solid waste management system in Maputo City, Mozambique.

PubMed

Dos Muchangos, Leticia Sarmento; Tokai, Akihiro; Hanashima, Atsuko

2017-01-01

Material flow analysis can effectively trace and quantify the flows and stocks of materials such as solid wastes in urban environments. However, the integrity of material flow analysis results is compromised by data uncertainties, an occurrence that is particularly acute in low-and-middle-income study contexts. This article investigates the uncertainties in the input data and their effects in a material flow analysis study of municipal solid waste management in Maputo City, the capital of Mozambique. The analysis is based on data collected in 2007 and 2014. Initially, the uncertainties and their ranges were identified by the data classification model of Hedbrant and Sörme, followed by the application of sensitivity analysis. The average lower and upper bounds were 29% and 71%, respectively, in 2007, increasing to 41% and 96%, respectively, in 2014. This indicates higher data quality in 2007 than in 2014. Results also show that not only data are partially missing from the established flows such as waste generation to final disposal, but also that they are limited and inconsistent in emerging flows and processes such as waste generation to material recovery (hence the wider variation in the 2014 parameters). The sensitivity analysis further clarified the most influencing parameter and the degree of influence of each parameter on the waste flows and the interrelations among the parameters. The findings highlight the need for an integrated municipal solid waste management approach to avoid transferring or worsening the negative impacts among the parameters and flows.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Extreme geomagnetic storms: Probabilistic forecasts and their uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Pete; Love, Jeffrey J.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather events are low-frequency, high-risk phenomena. Estimating their rates of occurrence, as well as their associated uncertainties, is difficult. In this study, we derive statistical estimates and uncertainties for the occurrence rate of an extreme geomagnetic storm on the scale of the Carrington event (or worse) occurring within the next decade. We model the distribution of events as either a power law or lognormal distribution and use (1) Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to estimate goodness of fit, (2) bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty in the estimates, and (3) likelihood ratio tests to assess whether one distribution is preferred over another. Our best estimate for the probability of another extreme geomagnetic event comparable to the Carrington event occurring within the next 10 years is 10.3% 95%  confidence interval (CI) [0.9,18.7] for a power law distribution but only 3.0% 95% CI [0.6,9.0] for a lognormal distribution. However, our results depend crucially on (1) how we define an extreme event, (2) the statistical model used to describe how the events are distributed in intensity, (3) the techniques used to infer the model parameters, and (4) the data and duration used for the analysis. We test a major assumption that the data represent time stationary processes and discuss the implications. If the current trends persist, suggesting that we are entering a period of lower activity, our forecasts may represent upper limits rather than best estimates.

Development of a low frost-point generator operating at sub-atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuccaro, R.; Rosso, L.; Smorgon, D.; Beltramino, G.; Tabandeh, S.; Fernicola, V.

2018-05-01

A low frost-point generator (INRIM 03) operating at sub-atmospheric pressure has been designed and constructed at the Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica (INRIM) as part of a calibration facility for upper-air sounding instruments. This new humidity generator covers the frost-point temperature range between  ‑99 °C and  ‑20 °C and works at any controlled pressure between 200 hPa and 1100 hPa, achieving a complete saturation of the carrier gas (nitrogen) in a single passage through a stainless steel isothermal saturator. The generated humid gas contains a water vapour amount fraction between 14  ×  10‑9 mol mol‑1 and 5  ×  10‑3 mol mol‑1. In this work the design of the generator is reported together with characterisation and performance evaluation tests. A preliminary validation of the INRIM 03 against one of the INRIM humidity standards in the common region is also included. Based on experimental test results, an initial uncertainty evaluation of the generated frost-point temperature, T fp, and water vapour amount fraction, x w, in the limited range down to  ‑75 °C at atmospheric pressure is reported. For the frost-point temperature, the uncertainty budget yields a total expanded uncertainty (k  =  2) of less than 0.028 °C, while for the mole fraction the budget yields a total expanded uncertainty of less than 10‑6 mol mol‑1.

Evidence for ultrafast outflows in radio-quiet AGNs - III. Location and energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tombesi, F.; Cappi, M.; Reeves, J. N.; Braito, V.

2012-05-01

Using the results of a previous X-ray photoionization modelling of blueshifted Fe K absorption lines on a sample of 42 local radio-quiet AGNs observed with XMM-Newton, in this Letter we estimate the location and energetics of the associated ultrafast outflows (UFOs). Due to significant uncertainties, we are essentially able to place only lower/upper limits. On average, their location is in the interval ˜0.0003-0.03 pc (˜ 102-104rs) from the central black hole, consistent with what is expected for accretion disc winds/outflows. The mass outflow rates are constrained between ˜0.01 and 1 M⊙ yr-1, corresponding to >rsim5-10 per cent of the accretion rates. The average lower/upper limits on the mechanical power are log? 42.6-44.6 erg s-1. However, the minimum possible value of the ratio between the mechanical power and bolometric luminosity is constrained to be comparable or higher than the minimum required by simulations of feedback induced by winds/outflows. Therefore, this work demonstrates that UFOs are indeed capable to provide a significant contribution to the AGN cosmological feedback, in agreement with theoretical expectations and the recent observation of interactions between AGN outflows and the interstellar medium in several Seyfert galaxies.

Observations of the Crab Nebula, NGC 4151, Cyg X1 and Cyg X3 at medium gamma ray energies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanrosso, E. M.; Long, J. L.; Zych, A. D.; Gibbons, R.; White, R. S.; Dayton, B.

1980-01-01

The paper analyzes observations of the Crab Nebula, NGC 4151, Cyg X1, and Cyg X3 taken with the UCR gamma ray telescope at a residual atmospheric depth of about 3.5 g/sq cm on a balloon launched from Palestine, Texas, 4.5 GV, 2000 local time LT (0100 UT), on September 29, 1978. The data consists of continuous observations from 0430 LT (0930 UT) on September 30 to 1800 LT (2300 UT) on October 1, 1979. A flux increase is observed at the right ascension of the Crab Nebula within about a 10 min uncertainty of telescope source position determination, eliminating the SAS-2, CG 195+4, and the two COS-B sources in the antigalactic center direction as the origin of the gamma rays. The total flux of gamma rays for the Crab Nebula from 1.2 to 10 MeV is (6.1 + or - 1.5) x 10 to the -3rd photons/sq cm-s, with an upper limit at 10-20 MeV of 7 x 10 to the -5th photons/sq cm-s. Results for the NGC 4151, Cyg X1, and Cyg X3 are also discussed and flux upper limits are given.

Evaluation of uncertainty for regularized deconvolution: A case study in hydrophone measurements.

PubMed

Eichstädt, S; Wilkens, V

2017-06-01

An estimation of the measurand in dynamic metrology usually requires a deconvolution based on a dynamic calibration of the measuring system. Since deconvolution is, mathematically speaking, an ill-posed inverse problem, some kind of regularization is required to render the problem stable and obtain usable results. Many approaches to regularized deconvolution exist in the literature, but the corresponding evaluation of measurement uncertainties is, in general, an unsolved issue. In particular, the uncertainty contribution of the regularization itself is a topic of great importance, because it has a significant impact on the estimation result. Here, a versatile approach is proposed to express prior knowledge about the measurand based on a flexible, low-dimensional modeling of an upper bound on the magnitude spectrum of the measurand. This upper bound allows the derivation of an uncertainty associated with the regularization method in line with the guidelines in metrology. As a case study for the proposed method, hydrophone measurements in medical ultrasound with an acoustic working frequency of up to 7.5 MHz are considered, but the approach is applicable for all kinds of estimation methods in dynamic metrology, where regularization is required and which can be expressed as a multiplication in the frequency domain.

Optimization of constellation jettisoning regards to short term collision risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handschuh, D.-DA.-A.; Bourgeois, E.

2018-04-01

The space debris problematic is directly linked to the in-orbit collision risk between artificial satellites. With the increase of the space constellation projects, a multiplication of multi-payload launches should occur. In the specific cases where many satellites are injected into orbit with the same launcher upper stage, all these objects will be placed on similar orbits, very close one from each other, at a specific moment where their control capabilities will be very limited. Under this hypothesis, it is up to the launcher operator to ensure that the simultaneous in-orbit injection is safe enough to guarantee the non-collision risk between all the objects under a ballistic hypothesis eventually considering appropriate uncertainties. The purpose of the present study is to find optimized safe separation conditions to limit the in-orbit collision risk following the injection of many objects on very close orbits in a short-delay mission.

Rationale, conduct, and outcome using hypofractionated radiotherapy in prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Ritter, Mark

2008-01-01

Hypofractionated radiation therapy for prostate cancer has become of increasing interest with the recognition of a potential improvement in therapeutic ratio with treatments delivered in larger-sized fractions. In addition, the associated reduction in fraction number produces attractive cost and patient convenience advantages as well. A still limited but growing number of hypofractionation trials have reported acceptable short-term levels of toxicity and biochemical control, but most have insufficient follow-up to assure the long-term safety and efficacy of this approach. This situation will improve as many currently active trials mature, particularly several high value randomized trials. In contrast, extreme hypofractionation, with schedules delivering only on the order of 5 fractions, is truly in its infancy for prostate cancer, with extremely limited tolerance and efficacy information currently available. Several uncertainties in the radiobiology of hypofractionation mitigate for an organized, cautious investigational approach. The fractionation response (α/β ratio) of prostate cancers and, for that matter, late responding normal tissues, has yet to be rigorously defined. Additionally, the linear quadratic (LQ) model used in the design of hypofractionation schedules is subject to its own uncertainties, particularly with respect to the upper limit of fraction sizes for which it remains valid. Contemporary dose escalated radiation therapy is already highly effective, making it imperative that ongoing and future studies of hypofractionation be carried out in carefully designed, randomized clinical trials. Clinical validation permitting, the adaptation of hypofractionation as a standard of care could profoundly influence future management of localized prostate cancer. PMID:18725112

Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

DOE PAGES

Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.; ...

2016-06-15

Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less

When do business units benefit more from collective citizenship behavior of management teams? An upper echelons perspective.

PubMed

Liu, Wu; Gong, Yaping; Liu, Jun

2014-05-01

Drawing upon the notion of managerial discretion from upper echelons theory, we theorize which external contingencies moderate the relationship between collective organizational citizenship behavior (COCB) and unit performance. Focusing on business unit (BU) management teams, we hypothesize that COCB of BU management teams enhances BU performance and that this impact depends on environmental uncertainty and BU management-team decision latitude, 2 determinants of managerial discretion. In particular, the positive effect of COCB is stronger when environmental uncertainty or the BU management-team decision latitude is greater. Time-lagged data from 109 BUs of a telecommunications company support the hypotheses. Additional exploratory analysis shows that the positive moderating effect of environmental uncertainty is further amplified at higher levels of BU management-team decision latitude. Overall, this study extends the internally focused view in the micro OCB literature by introducing external contingencies for the COCB-unit-performance relationship. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Exploring CP violation in the MSSM.

PubMed

Arbey, Alexandre; Ellis, John; Godbole, Rohini M; Mahmoudi, Farvah

We explore the prospects for observing CP violation in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) with six CP-violating parameters, three gaugino mass phases and three phases in trilinear soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters, using the CPsuperH code combined with a geometric approach to maximise CP-violating observables subject to the experimental upper bounds on electric dipole moments. We also implement CP-conserving constraints from Higgs physics, flavour physics and the upper limits on the cosmological dark matter density and spin-independent scattering. We study possible values of observables within the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), the non-universal Higgs model (NUHM), the CPX scenario and a variant of the phenomenological MSSM (pMSSM). We find values of the CP-violating asymmetry [Formula: see text] in [Formula: see text] decay that may be as large as 3 %, so future measurements of [Formula: see text] may provide independent information about CP violation in the MSSM. We find that CP-violating MSSM contributions to the [Formula: see text] meson mass mixing term [Formula: see text] are in general below the present upper limit, which is dominated by theoretical uncertainties. If these could be reduced, [Formula: see text] could also provide an interesting and complementary constraint on the six CP-violating MSSM phases, enabling them all to be determined experimentally, in principle. We also find that CP violation in the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] couplings can be quite large, and so may offer interesting prospects for future [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] colliders.

THE COOL ACCRETION DISK IN ESO 243-49 HLX-1: FURTHER EVIDENCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE-MASS BLACK HOLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Shane W.; Narayan, Ramesh; Zhu Yucong

2011-06-20

With an inferred bolometric luminosity exceeding 10{sup 42} erg s{sup -1}, HLX-1 in ESO 243-49 is the most luminous of ultraluminous X-ray sources and provides one of the strongest cases for the existence of intermediate-mass black holes. We obtain good fits to disk-dominated observations of the source with BHSPEC, a fully relativistic black hole accretion disk spectral model. Due to degeneracies in the model arising from the lack of independent constraints on inclination and black hole spin, there is a factor of 100 uncertainty in the best-fit black hole mass M. Nevertheless, spectral fitting of XMM-Newton observations provides robust lowermore » and upper limits with 3000 M{sub sun} {approx}< M {approx}< 3 x 10{sup 5} M{sub sun}, at 90% confidence, placing HLX-1 firmly in the intermediate-mass regime. The lower bound on M is entirely determined by matching the shape and peak energy of the thermal component in the spectrum. This bound is consistent with (but independent of) arguments based solely on the Eddington limit. Joint spectral modeling of the XMM-Newton data with more luminous Swift and Chandra observations increases the lower bound to 6000 M{sub sun}, but this tighter constraint is not independent of the Eddington limit. The upper bound on M is sensitive to the maximum allowed inclination i, and is reduced to M {approx}< 10{sup 5} M{sub sun} if we limit i {approx}< 75{sup 0}.« less

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, L.uis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Upper bounds on quantum uncertainty products and complexity measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guerrero, Angel; Sanchez-Moreno, Pablo; Dehesa, Jesus S.

The position-momentum Shannon and Renyi uncertainty products of general quantum systems are shown to be bounded not only from below (through the known uncertainty relations), but also from above in terms of the Heisenberg-Kennard product . Moreover, the Cramer-Rao, Fisher-Shannon, and Lopez-Ruiz, Mancini, and Calbet shape measures of complexity (whose lower bounds have been recently found) are also bounded from above. The improvement of these bounds for systems subject to spherically symmetric potentials is also explicitly given. Finally, applications to hydrogenic and oscillator-like systems are done.

How light a higgsino or a wino dark matter can become in a compressed scenario of MSSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborti, Manimala; Chattopadhyay, Utpal; Poddar, Sujoy

2017-09-01

Higgsinos and Wino have strong motivations for being Dark Matter (DM) candidates in supersymmetry, but their annihilation cross sections are quite large. For thermal generation and a single component DM setup the higgsinos or wino may have masses of around 1 or 2-3 TeV respectively. For such DM candidates, a small amount of slepton coannihilation may decrease the effective DM annihilation cross section. This, in turn reduces the lower limit of the relic density satisfied DM mass by more than 50%. Almost a similar degree of reduction of the same limit is also seen for squark coannihilations. However, on the contrary, for near degeneracy of squarks and higgsino DM, near its generic upper limit, the associated coannihilations may decrease the relic density, thus extending the upper limit towards higher DM masses. We also compute the direct and indirect detection signals. Here, because of the quasi-mass degeneracy of the squarks and the LSP, we come across a situation where squark exchange diagrams may contribute significantly or more strongly than the Higgs exchange contributions in the spin-independent direct detection cross section of DM. For the higgsino-DM scenario, we observe that a DM mass of 600 GeV to be consistent with WMAP/PLANCK and LUX data for sfermion coannihilations. The LUX data itself excludes the region of 450 to 600 GeV, by a half order of magnitude of the cross-section, well below the associated uncertainty. The similar combined lower limit for a wino DM is about 1.1 TeV. There is hardly any collider bound from the LHC for squarks and sleptons in such a compressed scenario where sfermion masses are close to the mass of a higgsino/wino LSP.

Understanding tropical upper tropospheric warming: The role of SSTs, convective parameterizations, and observational uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

2015-12-01

Recent research has compared CMIP5 general circulation model (GCM) simulations with satellite observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. Although the pattern of SST warming is important, this research demonstrated that models overestimate increases in static stability between the mid- to upper- tropical troposphere, even when they are forced with historical sea surface temperatures. This discrepancy between satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements (MSU) and GCMs is important because it has implications for the strength of the lapse rate and water vapor feedback. The apparent model-observational difference for changes in static stability in the tropical upper troposphere represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. In this work, we will use GCM simulations to examine the importance of the spatial pattern of SST warming and different convective parameterizations in determining the lapse rate changes in tropical troposphere. We will also consider uncertainties in MSU satellite observations, including changes in the diurnal sampling of temperature and instrument calibration biases when comparing GCMs with the observed record.

Evaluation of external exposures of the population of Ozyorsk, Russia, with luminescence measurements of bricks.

PubMed

Woda, Clemens; Jacob, P; Ulanovsky, A; Fiedler, I; Mokrov, Y; Rovny, S

2009-11-01

Recently discovered historical documents indicate that large releases of noble gases (mainly (41)Ar and radioactive isotopes of Kr and Xe) from the Mayak Production Association (MPA) over the period from 1948 to 1956 may have caused considerable external exposures of both, inhabitants of Ozyorsk and former inhabitants of villages at the upper Techa River. To quantify this exposure, seven brick samples from three buildings in Ozyorsk, located 8-10 km north-northwest from the radioactive gas release points, were taken. The absorbed dose in brick was measured in a depth interval of 3-13 mm below the exposed surface of the bricks by means of the thermoluminescence (TL) and the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) method. Generally, luminescence properties using TL were more favorable for precise dose determination than using OSL, but within their uncertainties the results from both methods agree well with each other. The absorbed dose due to natural radiation was assessed and subtracted under the assumption of the bricks to be completely dry. The weighted average of the anthropogenic dose for all samples measured by TL and OSL is 10 +/- 9 and 1 +/- 9 mGy, respectively. An upper limit for a possible anthropogenic dose in brick that would not be detected due to the measurement uncertainties is estimated at 24 mGy. This corresponds to an effective dose of about 21 mSv. A similar range of values is obtained in recently published dispersion calculations that were based on reconstructed MPA releases. It is concluded that the release of radioactive noble gases from the radiochemical and reactor plants at Mayak PA did not lead to a significant external exposure of the population of Ozyorsk. In addition, the study demonstrates the detection limit for anthropogenic doses in ca. 60-year-old bricks to be about 24 mGy, if luminescence methods are used.

[Health and environment].

PubMed

Tubiana, M

2000-07-01

The impact of the environment (air, water, food pollution) on health is a major concern in contemporary society. Unfortunately, there are relatively few objective epidemiological data on this subject and their accuracy is limited. Risks are often not quantified, whereas in public health the quantitative assessment of the various risks and benefits must provide the bases for a global strategy. Actual risks should be distinguished from putative risks and, when the risks are putative, an effort should be made to ascertain the upper and lower limits of the risk. The validity of a linear no threshold relationship for assessing putative risks should be discussed and, whenever appropriate, other relationships should be considered. Since emotional reactions often pervade environmental issues, which in turn are exploited for political or commercial reasons, it is not surprising that any statement or action may provoke violent debate. It is serious to underestimate the importance of a risk, since appropriate measures may not be put in place. However, it is equally serious to overestimate it because this can provoke unjustified fears, a pervasive unease, and a rejection of certain technologies, even to the point of discrediting science. It can lead therefore to a questioning of progress by instilling fears about any innovation, as well as facilitating the manipulation of public opinion for financial or ideological reasons, and finally to distortions in budget allocations and public health actions. Confronted with this situation, the Academy's role should be threefold. a) Whenever necessary, point out the need for an increase in appropriate fundamental research. When epidemiological data are uncertain, analyse the cause of these uncertainties and advocate appropriate development in statistical methodologies and epidemiological research, which could ascertain the upper limit of the putative risk. The lack of knowledge often results in public anxiety; this reaction should be investigated and psychosociological research must be encouraged and supported. b) Inform the scientific community and the public; fight against misinformation and sensationalism in the news, and take advantage of the Internet to this end. Encourage openness and transparency in the preparation of scientific reports and dialogue with the stakeholders. c) Better define the role and the place of experts, ensure their independence, monitor their competence and make sure they represent the various fields involved. When reports are conflicting, the Academy should be ready to organize a forum for analysing the roots of these disagreements and to delineate the limits of the uncertainties.

A Catalog of Distances to Molecular Clouds from Pan-STARRS1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlafly, Eddie; Green, G.; Finkbeiner, D. P.; Rix, H.

2014-01-01

We present a catalog of distances to molecular clouds, derived from PanSTARRS-1 photometry. We simultaneously infer the full probability distribution function of reddening and distance of the stars towards these clouds using the technique of Green et al. (2013) (see neighboring poster). We fit the resulting measurements using a simple dust screen model to infer the distance to each cloud. The result is a large, homogeneous catalog of distances to molecular clouds. For clouds with heliocentric distances greater than about 200 pc, typical statistical uncertainties in the distances are 5%, with systematic uncertainty stemming from the quality of our stellar models of about 10%. We have applied this analysis to many of the most well-studied clouds in the δ > -30° sky, including Orion, California, Taurus, Perseus, and Cepheus. We have also studied the entire catalog of Magnani, Blitz, and Mundy (1985; MBM), though for about half of those clouds we can provide only upper limits on the distances. We compare our distances with distances from the literature, when available, and find good agreement.

Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.

2007-01-01

The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

The GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vömel, H.; Berger, F. H.; Immler, F. J.; Seidel, D.; Thorne, P.

2009-04-01

While the global upper-air observing network has provided useful observations for operational weather forecasting for decades, its measurements lack the accuracy and long-term continuity needed for understanding climate change. Consequently, the scientific community faces uncertainty on such key issues as the trends of temperature in the upper troposphere and stratosphere or the variability and trends of stratospheric water vapour. To address these shortcomings, and to ensure that future climate records will be more useful than the records to date, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program initiated the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN). GRUAN will be a network of about 30-40 observatories with a representative sampling of geographic regions and surface types. These stations will provide upper-air reference observations of the essential climate variables, i.e. temperature, geopotential, humidity, wind, radiation and cloud properties using specialized radiosondes and complementary remote sensing profiling instrumentation. Long-term stability, quality assurance / quality control, and a detailed assessment of measurement uncertainties will be the key aspects of GRUAN observations. The network will not be globally complete but will serve to constrain and adjust data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems including satellites and the current radiosonde networks. This paper outlines the scientific rationale for GRUAN, its role in the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, network requirements and likely instrumentation, management structure, current status and future plans.

Fundamental uncertainty limit of optical flow velocimetry according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

PubMed

Fischer, Andreas

2016-11-01

Optical flow velocity measurements are important for understanding the complex behavior of flows. Although a huge variety of methods exist, they are either based on a Doppler or a time-of-flight measurement principle. Doppler velocimetry evaluates the velocity-dependent frequency shift of light scattered at a moving particle, whereas time-of-flight velocimetry evaluates the traveled distance of a scattering particle per time interval. Regarding the aim of achieving a minimal measurement uncertainty, it is unclear if one principle allows to achieve lower uncertainties or if both principles can achieve equal uncertainties. For this reason, the natural, fundamental uncertainty limit according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is derived for Doppler and time-of-flight measurement principles, respectively. The obtained limits of the velocity uncertainty are qualitatively identical showing, e.g., a direct proportionality for the absolute value of the velocity to the power of 32 and an indirect proportionality to the square root of the scattered light power. Hence, both measurement principles have identical potentials regarding the fundamental uncertainty limit due to the quantum mechanical behavior of photons. This fundamental limit can be attained (at least asymptotically) in reality either with Doppler or time-of-flight methods, because the respective Cramér-Rao bounds for dominating photon shot noise, which is modeled as white Poissonian noise, are identical with the conclusions from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.

Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

The Scientific Basis of Uncertainty Factors Used in Setting Occupational Exposure Limits.

PubMed

Dankovic, D A; Naumann, B D; Maier, A; Dourson, M L; Levy, L S

2015-01-01

The uncertainty factor concept is integrated into health risk assessments for all aspects of public health practice, including by most organizations that derive occupational exposure limits. The use of uncertainty factors is predicated on the assumption that a sufficient reduction in exposure from those at the boundary for the onset of adverse effects will yield a safe exposure level for at least the great majority of the exposed population, including vulnerable subgroups. There are differences in the application of the uncertainty factor approach among groups that conduct occupational assessments; however, there are common areas of uncertainty which are considered by all or nearly all occupational exposure limit-setting organizations. Five key uncertainties that are often examined include interspecies variability in response when extrapolating from animal studies to humans, response variability in humans, uncertainty in estimating a no-effect level from a dose where effects were observed, extrapolation from shorter duration studies to a full life-time exposure, and other insufficiencies in the overall health effects database indicating that the most sensitive adverse effect may not have been evaluated. In addition, a modifying factor is used by some organizations to account for other remaining uncertainties-typically related to exposure scenarios or accounting for the interplay among the five areas noted above. Consideration of uncertainties in occupational exposure limit derivation is a systematic process whereby the factors applied are not arbitrary, although they are mathematically imprecise. As the scientific basis for uncertainty factor application has improved, default uncertainty factors are now used only in the absence of chemical-specific data, and the trend is to replace them with chemical-specific adjustment factors whenever possible. The increased application of scientific data in the development of uncertainty factors for individual chemicals also has the benefit of increasing the transparency of occupational exposure limit derivation. Improved characterization of the scientific basis for uncertainty factors has led to increasing rigor and transparency in their application as part of the overall occupational exposure limit derivation process.

Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Polynomial Requirement Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. A Bernstein expansion approach is used to size hyper-rectangular subsets while a sum of squares programming approach is used to size quasi-ellipsoidal subsets. These methods are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is a known polynomial. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the uncertainty model assumed (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Unrestricted Requirement Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. The methods developed herein, which are based on nonlinear constrained optimization, are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is arbitrary and whose explicit form may even be unknown. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the assumed uncertainty model (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

Measurement of the $$b \\bar{b}$$ Cross-Section and Correlations using Dimuon Events in $$p \\bar{p}$$ Collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$ = 1.8-TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fein, David Kevin

1996-01-01

We have measured the b-quark production cross section formore » $$\\mid y \\mid$$ < 1 using a sample of dimuon events collected with the D0 detector in $$p\\bar{p}$$ collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$ = 1:8 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron. The measured b-quark cross section is consistent with $$O(\\alpha^3_s$$) QCD predictions, but lies at the upper limit of the theoretical uncertainties which is a factor of 1.5 above the mean value. A study of the difference in azimuthal angle of the two muons is in good qualitative agreement with the $$O(\\alpha^3_s$$) QCD predictions« less

Deep Inspiration Breath Hold—Based Radiation Therapy: A Clinical Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boda-Heggemann, Judit, E-mail: judit.boda-heggemann@umm.de; Knopf, Antje-Christin; Simeonova-Chergou, Anna

Several recent developments in linear accelerator–based radiation therapy (RT) such as fast multileaf collimators, accelerated intensity modulation paradigms like volumeric modulated arc therapy and flattening filter-free (FFF) high-dose-rate therapy have dramatically shortened the duration of treatment fractions. Deliverable photon dose distributions have approached physical complexity limits as a consequence of precise dose calculation algorithms and online 3-dimensional image guided patient positioning (image guided RT). Simultaneously, beam quality and treatment speed have continuously been improved in particle beam therapy, especially for scanned particle beams. Applying complex treatment plans with steep dose gradients requires strategies to mitigate and compensate for motion effectsmore » in general, particularly breathing motion. Intrafractional breathing-related motion results in uncertainties in dose delivery and thus in target coverage. As a consequence, generous margins have been used, which, in turn, increases exposure to organs at risk. Particle therapy, particularly with scanned beams, poses additional problems such as interplay effects and range uncertainties. Among advanced strategies to compensate breathing motion such as beam gating and tracking, deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) gating is particularly advantageous in several respects, not only for hypofractionated, high single-dose stereotactic body RT of lung, liver, and upper abdominal lesions but also for normofractionated treatment of thoracic tumors such as lung cancer, mediastinal lymphomas, and breast cancer. This review provides an in-depth discussion of the rationale and technical implementation of DIBH gating for hypofractionated and normofractionated RT of intrathoracic and upper abdominal tumors in photon and proton RT.« less

Normative Values for Near and Distance Clinical Tests of Stereoacuity.

PubMed

Piano, Marianne E F; Tidbury, Laurence P; O'Connor, Anna R

2016-12-01

Extensive literature exists on normative stereoacuity values for younger children, but there is less information about normative stereoacuity in older children/adults. Individual stereotests cannot be used interchangeably-knowing the upper limit of normality for each test is important. This report details normative stereoacuity values for 5 near/distance stereotests drawn from a large sample of participants aged 16-40 years, across 3 studies. Participants (n=206, mean age 22.18±5.31 years) were administered the following stereotests: TNO, Preschool Randot, Frisby, Distance Randot, and Frisby-Davis 2. Medians and upper limits were calculated for each test. Upper limits for each stereotest were as follows: TNO (n=127, upper limit=120" arc), Preschool Randot (PSR, n=206, upper limit=70" arc), Frisby (n=206, upper limit=40" arc), Distance Randot (n=127, upper limit=160" arc), and Frisby-Davis 2 (n=109, upper limit=25" arc). Normative values for each stereotest are identified and discussed with respect to other studies. Potential sources of variation between tests, within testing distances, are also discussed.

Positive Cervical Artery Testing in a Patient with Chronic Whiplash Syndrome: Clinical Decision-Making in the Presence of Diagnostic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Graziano, David L.; Nitsch, Wanda; Huijbregts, Peter A.

2007-01-01

This case report describes the diagnosis and management of a 43-year-old female patient who had sustained an injury to her neck in a motor-vehicle accident two years earlier. The major symptoms described by the patient included headache and neck pain, but history and examination also revealed signs and symptoms potentially indicative of cervical artery compromise. Physical therapy management initially consisted of soft tissue and non-thrust joint manipulation of the lower cervical and thoracic spine, specific exercise prescription, and superficial heat. Cervical vascular compromise was re-evaluated by way of the sustained extension-rotation test. When at the fifth visit this test no longer produced symptoms potentially indicative of vascular compromise, upper cervical diagnosis and management consisting of soft tissue and non-thrust joint manipulation was added. A positive outcome was achieved both at the impairment level and with regard to limitations in activities, the latter including increased performance at work, a return to previous reading activities, improved length and quality of sleep, and greater comfort while driving. At discharge, the patient reported only occasional pain and mild limitations in activities. This report describes the positive outcomes in a patient with chronic whiplash syndrome; however, its main emphasis lies in the discussion and critical evaluation of clinical reasoning in the presence of diagnostic uncertainty with regard to cervical artery compromise. PMID:19066653

Limitation of Ground-based Estimates of Solar Irradiance Due to Atmospheric Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Holben, Brent N.

2003-01-01

The uncertainty in ground-based estimates of solar irradiance is quantitatively related to the temporal variability of the atmosphere's optical thickness. The upper and lower bounds of the accuracy of estimates using the Langley Plot technique are proportional to the standard deviation of aerosol optical thickness (approx. +/- 13 sigma(delta tau)). The estimates of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) in two Cimel sun photometer channels from the Mauna Loa site of AERONET are compared with satellite observations from SOLSTICE (Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) on UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) for almost two years of data. The true solar variations related to the 27-day solar rotation cycle observed from SOLSTICE are about 0.15% at the two sun photometer channels. The variability in ground-based estimates is statistically one order of magnitude larger. Even though about 30% of these estimates from all Level 2.0 Cimel data fall within the 0.4 to approx. 0.5% variation level, ground-based estimates are not able to capture the 27-day solar variation observed from SOLSTICE.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-04-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas-particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols.

PubMed

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Karydis, Vlassis A; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-04-21

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas-particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA.

Global distribution of particle phase state in atmospheric secondary organic aerosols

PubMed Central

Shiraiwa, Manabu; Li, Ying; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Berkemeier, Thomas; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos; Koop, Thomas; Pöschl, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are a large source of uncertainty in our current understanding of climate change and air pollution. The phase state of SOA is important for quantifying their effects on climate and air quality, but its global distribution is poorly characterized. We developed a method to estimate glass transition temperatures based on the molar mass and molecular O:C ratio of SOA components, and we used the global chemistry climate model EMAC with the organic aerosol module ORACLE to predict the phase state of atmospheric SOA. For the planetary boundary layer, global simulations indicate that SOA are mostly liquid in tropical and polar air with high relative humidity, semi-solid in the mid-latitudes and solid over dry lands. We find that in the middle and upper troposphere SOA should be mostly in a glassy solid phase state. Thus, slow diffusion of water, oxidants and organic molecules could kinetically limit gas–particle interactions of SOA in the free and upper troposphere, promote ice nucleation and facilitate long-range transport of reactive and toxic organic pollutants embedded in SOA. PMID:28429776

A generalized public goods game with coupling of individual ability and project benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; He, Yun-Xin; Zhong, Chen-Yang; Chen, Rong-Da; Qiu, Tian; Shi, Yong-Dong; Ren, Fei

2017-08-01

Facing a heavy task, any single person can only make a limited contribution and team cooperation is needed. As one enjoys the benefit of the public goods, the potential benefits of the project are not always maximized and may be partly wasted. By incorporating individual ability and project benefit into the original public goods game, we study the coupling effect of the four parameters, the upper limit of individual contribution, the upper limit of individual benefit, the needed project cost and the upper limit of project benefit on the evolution of cooperation. Coevolving with the individual-level group size preferences, an increase in the upper limit of individual benefit promotes cooperation while an increase in the upper limit of individual contribution inhibits cooperation. The coupling of the upper limit of individual contribution and the needed project cost determines the critical point of the upper limit of project benefit, where the equilibrium frequency of cooperators reaches its highest level. Above the critical point, an increase in the upper limit of project benefit inhibits cooperation. The evolution of cooperation is closely related to the preferred group-size distribution. A functional relation between the frequency of cooperators and the dominant group size is found.

Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2014-05-01

We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danner, Travis W.

Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this modeling technique begins to diminish. With the introduction of multiple objectives, researchers often abandon technology growth models for scoring models and technology frontiers. While both approaches possess advantages over current growth models for the assessment of multi-objective technologies, each lacks a necessary dimension for comprehensive technology assessment. By collapsing multiple system metrics into a single, non-intuitive technology measure, scoring models provide a succinct framework for multi-objective technology assessment and forecasting. Yet, with no consideration of physical limits, scoring models provide no insight as to the feasibility of a particular combination of system capabilities. They only indicate that a given combination of system capabilities yields a particular score. Conversely, technology frontiers are constructed with the distinct objective of providing insight into the feasibility of system capability combinations. Yet again, upper limits to overall system performance are ignored. Furthermore, the data required to forecast subsequent technology frontiers is often inhibitive. In an attempt to reincorporate the fundamental nature of technology advancement as bound by physical principles, researchers have sought to normalize multi-objective systems whereby the variability of a single system objective is eliminated as a result of changes in the remaining objectives. This drastically limits the applicability of the resulting technology model because it is only applicable for a single setting of all other system attributes. Attempts to maintain the interaction between the growth curves of each technical objective of a complex system have thus far been limited to qualitative and subjective consideration. This research proposes the formulation of multidimensional growth models as an approach to simulating the advancement of multi-objective technologies towards their upper limits. Multidimensional growth models were formulated by noticing and exploiting the correlation between technology growth models and technology frontiers. Both are frontiers in actuality. The technology growth curve is a frontier between capability levels of a single attribute and time, while a technology frontier is a frontier between the capability levels of two or more attributes. Multidimensional growth models are formulated by exploiting the mathematical significance of this correlation. The result is a model that can capture both the interaction between multiple system attributes and their expected rates of improvement over time. The fundamental nature of technology development is maintained, and interdependent growth curves are generated for each system metric with minimal data requirements. Being founded on the basic nature of technology advancement, relative to physical limits, the availability for further improvement can be determined for a single metric relative to other system measures of merit. A by-product of this modeling approach is a single n-dimensional technology frontier linking all n system attributes with time. This provides an environment capable of forecasting future system capability in the form of advancing technology frontiers. The ability of a multidimensional growth model to capture the expected improvement of a specific technological approach is dependent on accurately identifying the physical limitations to each pertinent attribute. This research investigates two potential approaches to identifying those physical limits, a physics-based approach and a regression-based approach. The regression-based approach has found limited acceptance among forecasters, although it does show potential for estimating upper limits with a specified degree of uncertainty. Forecasters have long favored physics-based approaches for establishing the upper limit to unidimensional growth models. The task of accurately identifying upper limits has become increasingly difficult with the extension of growth models into multiple dimensions. A lone researcher may be able to identify the physical limitation to a single attribute of a simple system; however, as system complexity and the number of attributes increases, the attention of researchers from multiple fields of study is required. Thus, limit identification is itself an area of research and development requiring some level of investment. Whether estimated by physics or regression-based approaches, predicted limits will always have some degree of uncertainty. This research takes the approach of quantifying the impact of that uncertainty on model forecasts rather than heavily endorsing a single technique to limit identification. In addition to formulating the multidimensional growth model, this research provides a systematic procedure for applying that model to specific technology architectures. Researchers and decision-makers are able to investigate the potential for additional improvement within that technology architecture and to estimate the expected cost of each incremental improvement relative to the cost of past improvements. In this manner, multidimensional growth models provide the necessary information to set reasonable program goals for the further evolution of a particular technological approach or to establish the need for revolutionary approaches in light of the constraining limits of conventional approaches.

Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

2017-10-01

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.

Evidence for Ultra-Fast Outflows in Radio-Quiet AGNs: III - Location and Energetics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tombesi, F.; Cappi, M.; Reeves, J. N.; Braito, V.

2012-01-01

Using the results of a previous X-ray photo-ionization modelling of blue-shifted Fe K absorption lines on a sample of 42 local radio-quiet AGNs observed with XMM-Newton, in this letter we estimate the location and energetics of the associated ultrafast outflows (UFOs). Due to significant uncertainties, we are essentially able to place only lower/upper limits. On average, their location is in the interval approx.0.0003-0.03pc (approx.10(exp 2)-10(exp 4)tau(sub s) from the central black hole, consistent with what is expected for accretion disk winds/outflows. The mass outflow rates are constrained between approx.0.01- 1 Stellar Mass/y, corresponding to approx. or >5-10% of the accretion rates. The average lower-upper limits on the mechanical power are logE(sub K) approx. or = 42.6-44.6 erg/s. However, the minimum possible value of the ratio between the mechanical power and bolometric luminosity is constrained to be comparable or higher than the minimum required by simulations of feedback induced by winds/outflows. Therefore, this work demonstrates that UFOs are indeed capable to provide a significant contribution to the AGN r.osmological feedback, in agreement with theoretical expectations and the recent observation of interactions between AGN outflows and the interstellar medium in several Seyferts galaxies .

The Structure of Chariklo’s Rings from Stellar Occultations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bérard, D.; Sicardy, B.; Camargo, J. I. B.; Desmars, J.; Braga-Ribas, F.; Ortiz, J.-L.; Duffard, R.; Morales, N.; Meza, E.; Leiva, R.; Benedetti-Rossi, G.; Vieira-Martins, R.; Gomes Júnior, A.-R.; Assafin, M.; Colas, F.; Dauvergne, J.-L.; Kervella, P.; Lecacheux, J.; Maquet, L.; Vachier, F.; Renner, S.; Monard, B.; Sickafoose, A. A.; Breytenbach, H.; Genade, A.; Beisker, W.; Bath, K.-L.; Bode, H.-J.; Backes, M.; Ivanov, V. D.; Jehin, E.; Gillon, M.; Manfroid, J.; Pollock, J.; Tancredi, G.; Roland, S.; Salvo, R.; Vanzi, L.; Herald, D.; Gault, D.; Kerr, S.; Pavlov, H.; Hill, K. M.; Bradshaw, J.; Barry, M. A.; Cool, A.; Lade, B.; Cole, A.; Broughton, J.; Newman, J.; Horvat, R.; Maybour, D.; Giles, D.; Davis, L.; Paton, R. A.; Loader, B.; Pennell, A.; Jaquiery, P.-D.; Brillant, S.; Selman, F.; Dumas, C.; Herrera, C.; Carraro, G.; Monaco, L.; Maury, A.; Peyrot, A.; Teng-Chuen-Yu, J.-P.; Richichi, A.; Irawati, P.; De Witt, C.; Schoenau, P.; Prager, R.; Colazo, C.; Melia, R.; Spagnotto, J.; Blain, A.; Alonso, S.; Román, A.; Santos-Sanz, P.; Rizos, J.-L.; Maestre, J.-L.; Dunham, D.

2017-10-01

Two narrow and dense rings (called C1R and C2R) were discovered around the Centaur object (10199) Chariklo during a stellar occultation observed on 2013 June 3. Following this discovery, we planned observations of several occultations by Chariklo’s system in order to better characterize the physical properties of the ring and main body. Here, we use 12 successful occulations by Chariklo observed between 2014 and 2016. They provide ring profiles (physical width, opacity, edge structure) and constraints on the radii and pole position. Our new observations are currently consistent with the circular ring solution and pole position, to within the ±3.3 km formal uncertainty for the ring radii derived by Braga-Ribas et al. The six resolved C1R profiles reveal significant width variations from ˜5 to 7.5 km. The width of the fainter ring C2R is less constrained, and may vary between 0.1 and 1 km. The inner and outer edges of C1R are consistent with infinitely sharp boundaries, with typical upper limits of one kilometer for the transition zone between the ring and empty space. No constraint on the sharpness of C2R’s edges is available. A 1σ upper limit of ˜20 m is derived for the equivalent width of narrow (physical width < 4 km) rings up to distances of 12,000 km, counted in the ring plane.

Stringent upper limit of CH4 on Mars based on SOFIA/EXES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, S.; Richter, M. J.; DeWitt, C.; Boogert, A.; Encrenaz, T.; Sagawa, H.; Nakagawa, H.; Vandaele, A. C.; Giuranna, M.; Greathouse, T. K.; Fouchet, T.; Geminale, A.; Sindoni, G.; McKelvey, M.; Case, M.; Kasaba, Y.

2018-03-01

Discovery of CH4 in the Martian atmosphere has led to much discussion since it could be a signature of biological and/or geological activities on Mars. However, the presence of CH4 and its temporal and spatial variations are still under discussion because of the large uncertainties embedded in the previous observations. We performed sensitive measurements of Martian CH4 by using the Echelon-Cross-Echelle Spectrograph (EXES) onboard the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) on 16 March 2016, which corresponds to summer (Ls = 123.2∘) in the northern hemisphere on Mars. The high altitude of SOFIA ( 13.7 km) enables us to significantly reduce the effects of terrestrial atmosphere. Thanks to this, SOFIA/EXES improves our chances of detecting Martian CH4 lines because it reduces the impact of telluric CH4 on Martian CH4, and allows us to use CH4 lines in the 7.5 μm band which has less contamination. However, our results show no unambiguous detection of Martian CH4. The Martian disk was spatially resolved into 3 × 3 areas, and the upper limits on the CH4 volume mixing ratio range from 1 to 9 ppb across the Martian atmosphere, which is significantly less than detections in several other studies. These results emphasize that release of CH4 on Mars is sporadic and/or localized if the process is present.

A SUZAKU SEARCH FOR NONTHERMAL EMISSION AT HARD X-RAY ENERGIES IN THE COMA CLUSTER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wik, Daniel R.; Sarazin, Craig L.; Finoguenov, Alexis

2009-05-10

The brightest cluster radio halo known resides in the Coma cluster of galaxies. The relativistic electrons producing this diffuse synchrotron emission should also produce inverse Compton emission that becomes competitive with thermal emission from the intracluster medium (ICM) at hard X-ray energies. Thus far, claimed detections of this emission in Coma are controversial. We present a Suzaku HXD-PIN observation of the Coma cluster in order to nail down its nonthermal hard X-ray content. The contribution of thermal emission to the HXD-PIN spectrum is constrained by simultaneously fitting thermal and nonthermal models to it and a spatially equivalent spectrum derived frommore » an XMM-Newton mosaic of the Coma field. We fail to find statistically significant evidence for nonthermal emission in the spectra which are better described by only a single- or multitemperature model for the ICM. Including systematic uncertainties, we derive a 90% upper limit on the flux of nonthermal emission of 6.0 x 10{sup -12} erg s{sup -1} cm{sup -2} (20-80 keV, for {gamma} = 2.0), which implies a lower limit on the cluster-averaged magnetic field of B>0.15 {mu}G. Our flux upper limit is 2.5 times lower than the detected nonthermal flux from RXTE and BeppoSAX. However, if the nonthermal hard X-ray emission in Coma is more spatially extended than the observed radio halo, the Suzaku HXD-PIN may miss some fraction of the emission. A detailed investigation indicates that {approx}50%-67% of the emission might go undetected, which could make our limit consistent with that of Rephaeli and Gruber and Fusco-Femiano et al. The thermal interpretation of the hard Coma spectrum is consistent with recent analyses of INTEGRAL and Swift data.« less

New Parallaxes for the Upper Scorpius OB Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donaldson, J. K.; Weinberger, A. J.; Gagné, J.; Boss, A. P.; Keiser, S. A.

2017-11-01

Upper Scorpius is a subgroup of the nearest OB association, Scorpius-Centaurus. Its young age makes it an important association to study star and planet formation. We present parallaxes to 52 low-mass stars in Upper Scorpius, 28 of which have full kinematics. We measure ages of the individual stars by combining our measured parallaxes with pre-main-sequence evolutionary tracks. We find a significant difference in the ages of stars with and without circumstellar disks. The stars without disks have a mean age of 4.9 ± 0.8 Myr and those with disks have an older mean age of 8.2 ± 0.9 Myr. This somewhat counterintuitive result suggests that evolutionary effects in young stars can dominate their apparent ages. We also attempt to use the 28 stars with full kinematics (I.e., proper motion, radial velocity (RV), and parallax) to trace the stars back in time to their original birthplace to obtain a trackback age. As expected, given the large measurement uncertainties on available RV measurements, we find that measurement uncertainties alone cause the group to diverge after a few Myr.

Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, Kenneth; Jacobsen, Michael; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James

2013-12-01

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply ‘windfalls’ that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit.

Uncertainty in assessment of radiation-induced diffusion index changes in individual patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazem-Zadeh, Mohammad-Reza; Chapman, Christopher H.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Tsien, Christina I.; Cao, Yue

2013-06-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate repeatability coefficients of diffusion tensor indices to assess whether longitudinal changes in diffusion indices were true changes beyond the uncertainty for individual patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT). Twenty-two patients who had low-grade or benign tumors and were treated by partial brain radiation therapy (PBRT) participated in an IRB-approved MRI protocol. The diffusion tensor images in the patients were acquired pre-RT, week 3 during RT, at the end of RT, and 1, 6, and 18 months after RT. As a measure of uncertainty, repeatability coefficients (RC) of diffusion indices in the segmented cingulum, corpus callosum, and fornix were estimated by using test-retest diffusion tensor datasets from the National Biomedical Imaging Archive (NBIA) database. The upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval of the estimated RC from the test and retest data were used to evaluate whether the longitudinal percentage changes in diffusion indices in the segmented structures in the individual patients were beyond the uncertainty and thus could be considered as true radiation-induced changes. Diffusion indices in different white matter structures showed different uncertainty ranges. The estimated RC for fractional anisotropy (FA) ranged from 5.3% to 9.6%, for mean diffusivity (MD) from 2.2% to 6.8%, for axial diffusivity (AD) from 2.4% to 5.5%, and for radial diffusivity (RD) from 2.9% to 9.7%. Overall, 23% of the patients treated by RT had FA changes, 44% had MD changes, 50% had AD changes, and 50% had RD changes beyond the uncertainty ranges. In the fornix, 85.7% and 100% of the patients showed changes beyond the uncertainty range at 6 and 18 months after RT, demonstrating that radiation has a pronounced late effect on the fornix compared to other segmented structures. It is critical to determine reliability of a change observed in an individual patient for clinical decision making. Assessments of the repeatability and confidence interval of diffusion tensor measurements in white matter structures allow us to determine the true longitudinal change in individual patients.

Polarized Light Scanning Cryomacroscopy, Part II: Thermal Modeling and Analysis of Experimental Observations

PubMed Central

Feig, Justin S.G.; Solanki, Prem K.; Eisenberg, David P.; Rabin, Yoed

2016-01-01

This study aims at developing thermal analysis tools and explaining experimental observations made by means of polarized-light cryomacroscopy (Part I). Thermal modeling is based on finite elements analysis (FEA), where two model parameters are extracted from thermal measurements: (i) the overall heat transfer coefficient between the cuvette and the cooling chamber, and (ii) the effective thermal conductivity within the cryoprotective agent (CPA) at the upper part of the cryogenic temperature range. The effective thermal conductivity takes into account enhanced heat transfer due to convection currents within the CPA, creating the so-called Bénard cells. Comparison of experimental results with simulation data indicates that the uncertainty in simulations due to the propagation of uncertainty in measured physical properties exceeds the uncertainty in experimental measurements, which validates the modeling approach. It is shown in this study that while a cavity may form in the upper-center portion of the vitrified CPA, it has very little effect on estimating the temperature distribution within the domain. This cavity is driven by thermal contraction of the CPA, with the upper-center of the domain transitioning to glass last. Finally, it is demonstrated in this study that additional stresses may develop within the glass transition temperature range due to nonlinear behavior of the thermal expansion coefficient. This effect is reported here for the first time in the context of cryobiology, using the capabilities of polarized-light cryomacroscopy. PMID:27343139

Polarized light scanning cryomacroscopy, part II: Thermal modeling and analysis of experimental observations.

PubMed

Feig, Justin S G; Solanki, Prem K; Eisenberg, David P; Rabin, Yoed

2016-10-01

This study aims at developing thermal analysis tools and explaining experimental observations made by means of polarized-light cryomacroscopy (Part I). Thermal modeling is based on finite elements analysis (FEA), where two model parameters are extracted from thermal measurements: (i) the overall heat transfer coefficient between the cuvette and the cooling chamber, and (ii) the effective thermal conductivity within the cryoprotective agent (CPA) at the upper part of the cryogenic temperature range. The effective thermal conductivity takes into account enhanced heat transfer due to convection currents within the CPA, creating the so-called Bénard cells. Comparison of experimental results with simulation data indicates that the uncertainty in simulations due to the propagation of uncertainty in measured physical properties exceeds the uncertainty in experimental measurements, which validates the modeling approach. It is shown in this study that while a cavity may form in the upper-center portion of the vitrified CPA, it has very little effect on estimating the temperature distribution within the domain. This cavity is driven by thermal contraction of the CPA, with the upper-center of the domain transitioning to glass last. Finally, it is demonstrated in this study that additional stresses may develop within the glass transition temperature range due to nonlinear behavior of the thermal expansion coefficient. This effect is reported here for the first time in the context of cryobiology, using the capabilities of polarized-light cryomacroscopy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

U.S. Military Civic Action in Honduras, 1982-1985: Tactical Success, Strategic Uncertainty. CLIC Papers

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

four doctors treated about 600 patients, mostly for upper respiratory infections, malnutrition, skin infections and anemia . One villager, Jose Nolasco...gastro-intestinal problems, upper respiratory and skin infection, anemia , and malnutrition. Captain Gilbert Handal, a US Army doctor and a native of Chile...created by government opponents, but have been exploited by them. As former President of Peru , Fernando Belaunde-Terry argued "The enemies of democracy

Archaeomagnetic dating of Copper Age furnaces at Croce di Papa village and relations on Vesuvius and Phlegraean Fields volcanic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Principe, Claudia; Gogichaishvili, Avto; Arrighi, Simone; Devidze, Marina; La Felice, Sonia; Paolillo, Annarita; Giordano, Daniele; Morales, Juan

2018-01-01

Metallurgic furnaces, discovered in the archaeological site of Croce di Papa, Nola, at 15 km NE from the Vesuvius summit, were dated here by using archaeomagnetic technique. They are positioned between the deposits of the Vesuvius eruption of Pomici di Avellino and of the Phlegraean eruption of Agnano-Monte Spina. A revision of available age data and associated uncertainties for these two eruptions was carried out in order to provide constraints on the Croce di Papa furnaces age determination. The adopted archaeomagnetic technique provides an accurate age of 3136-3027 BCE corresponding to 5085 to 4976 a BP that represents the upper age limit of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption. This study provides evidences for the existence of human settlements in the Campanian Plain in the first century of the forth millennium BC and allow to assess the limited impact of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption on climate and human settlement.

Comparison among different retrofitting strategies for the vulnerability reduction of masonry bell towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Gabriele; Shehu, Rafael; Valente, Marco

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing the seismic vulnerability of masonry towers by means of innovative and traditional strengthening techniques. The followed strategy for providing the optimal retrofitting for masonry towers subjected to seismic risk relies on preventing active failure mechanisms. These vulnerable mechanisms are pre-assigned failure patterns based on the crack patterns experienced during the past seismic events. An upper bound limit analysis strategy is found suitable to be applied for simplified tower models in their present state and the proposed retrofitted ones. Taking into consideration the variability of geometrical features and the uncertainty of the strengthening techniques, Monte Carlo simulations are implemented into the limit analysis. In this framework a wide range of idealized cases are covered by the conducted analyses. The retrofitting strategies aim to increase the shear strength and the overturning load carrying capacity in order to reduce vulnerability. This methodology gives the possibility to use different materials which can fulfill the structural implementability requirements.

Calculation of the detection limit in radiation measurements with systematic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkpatrick, J. M.; Russ, W.; Venkataraman, R.; Young, B. M.

2015-06-01

The detection limit (LD) or Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) is an a priori evaluation of assay sensitivity intended to quantify the suitability of an instrument or measurement arrangement for the needs of a given application. Traditional approaches as pioneered by Currie rely on Gaussian approximations to yield simple, closed-form solutions, and neglect the effects of systematic uncertainties in the instrument calibration. These approximations are applicable over a wide range of applications, but are of limited use in low-count applications, when high confidence values are required, or when systematic uncertainties are significant. One proposed modification to the Currie formulation attempts account for systematic uncertainties within a Gaussian framework. We have previously shown that this approach results in an approximation formula that works best only for small values of the relative systematic uncertainty, for which the modification of Currie's method is the least necessary, and that it significantly overestimates the detection limit or gives infinite or otherwise non-physical results for larger systematic uncertainties where such a correction would be the most useful. We have developed an alternative approach for calculating detection limits based on realistic statistical modeling of the counting distributions which accurately represents statistical and systematic uncertainties. Instead of a closed form solution, numerical and iterative methods are used to evaluate the result. Accurate detection limits can be obtained by this method for the general case.

Biodegradation kinetics for pesticide exposure assessment.

PubMed

Wolt, J D; Nelson, H P; Cleveland, C B; van Wesenbeeck, I J

2001-01-01

Understanding pesticide risks requires characterizing pesticide exposure within the environment in a manner that can be broadly generalized across widely varied conditions of use. The coupled processes of sorption and soil degradation are especially important for understanding the potential environmental exposure of pesticides. The data obtained from degradation studies are inherently variable and, when limited in extent, lend uncertainty to exposure characterization and risk assessment. Pesticide decline in soils reflects dynamically coupled processes of sorption and degradation that add complexity to the treatment of soil biodegradation data from a kinetic perspective. Additional complexity arises from study design limitations that may not fully account for the decline in microbial activity of test systems, or that may be inadequate for considerations of all potential dissipation routes for a given pesticide. Accordingly, kinetic treatment of data must accommodate a variety of differing approaches starting with very simple assumptions as to reaction dynamics and extending to more involved treatments if warranted by the available experimental data. Selection of the appropriate kinetic model to describe pesticide degradation should rely on statistical evaluation of the data fit to ensure that the models used are not overparameterized. Recognizing the effects of experimental conditions and methods for kinetic treatment of degradation data is critical for making appropriate comparisons among pesticide biodegradation data sets. Assessment of variability in soil half-life among soils is uncertain because for many pesticides the data on soil degradation rate are limited to one or two soils. Reasonable upper-bound estimates of soil half-life are necessary in risk assessment so that estimated environmental concentrations can be developed from exposure models. Thus, an understanding of the variable and uncertain distribution of soil half-lives in the environment is necessary to estimate bounding values. Statistical evaluation of measures of central tendency for multisoil kinetic studies shows that geometric means better represent the distribution in soil half-lives than do the arithmetic or harmonic means. Estimates of upper-bound soil half-life values based on the upper 90% confidence bound on the geometric mean tend to accurately represent the upper bound when pesticide degradation rate is biologically driven but appear to overestimate the upper bound when there is extensive coupling of biodegradation with sorptive processes. The limited data available comparing distribution in pesticide soil half-lives between multisoil laboratory studies and multilocation field studies suggest that the probability density functions are similar. Thus, upper-bound estimates of pesticide half-life determined from laboratory studies conservatively represent pesticide biodegradation in the field environment for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment. International guidelines and approaches used for interpretations of soil biodegradation reflect many common elements, but differ in how the source and nature of variability in soil kinetic data are considered. Harmonization of approaches for the use of soil biodegradation data will improve the interpretative power of these data for the purposes of exposure and risk assessment.

Reconciling laboratory and observational models of mantle rheology in geodynamic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Scott D.

2016-10-01

Experimental and geophysical observations constraining mantle rheology are reviewed with an emphasis on their impact on mantle geodynamic modelling. For olivine, the most studied and best-constrained mantle mineral, the tradeoffs associated with the uncertainties in the activation energy, activation volume, grain-size and water content allow the construction of upper mantle rheology models ranging from nearly uniform with depth to linearly increasing from the base of the lithosphere to the top of the transition zone. Radial rheology models derived from geophysical observations allow for either a weak upper mantle or a weak transition zone. Experimental constraints show that wadsleyite and ringwoodite are stronger than olivine at the top of the transition zone; however the uncertainty in the concentration of water in the transition zone precludes ruling out a weak transition zone. Both observational and experimental constraints allow for strong or weak slabs and the most promising constraints on slab rheology may come from comparing inferred slab geometry from seismic tomography with systematic studies of slab morphology from dynamic models. Experimental constraints on perovskite and ferropericlase strength are consistent with general feature of rheology models derived from geophysical observations and suggest that the increase in viscosity through the top of the upper mantle could be due to the increase in the strength of ferropericlase from 20-65 GPa. The decrease in viscosity in the bottom half of the lower mantle could be the result of approaching the melting temperature of perovskite. Both lines of research are consistent with a high-viscosity lithosphere, a low viscosity either in the upper mantle or transition zone, and high viscosity in the lower mantle, increasing through the upper half of the lower mantle and decreasing in the bottom half of the lower mantle, with a low viscosity above the core. Significant regions of the mantle, including high-stress regions of the lower mantle, may be in the dislocation creep (power-law) regime. Due to our limited knowledge of mantle grain size, the best hope to resolve the question of whether a region is in diffusion creep (Newtonian rheology) or dislocation or grain-boundary creep (power-law rheology), may be the presence of absence of seismic anisotropy, because there is no mechanism to rotate crystals in diffusion creep which would be necessary to develop anisotropy from lattice preferred orientation. While non-intuitive, the presence or absence of a weak region in the upper mantle has a profound effect on lower mantle flow. With an asthenosphere, the lower mantle organizes into a long-wavelength plan form with one or two (degree 1 or degree 2) large downwellings and updrafts, which may contain a cluster of plumes. The boundary between the long-wavelength lower mantle flow and upper region flow may be deeper, likely 800-1200 km, than the usually assumed base of the transition zone. There are competing hypotheses as to whether this change in flow pattern is caused by a change in rheology, composition, or phase.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Distler, T. M.; Wong, C. M.

Runoff-water samples for the first, third, and fourth quarters of 1975 were analyzed for pesticide residues at LLL and independently by the LFE Environmental Analysis Laboratories. For the compounds analyzed, upper limits to possible contamination were placed conservatively at the low parts-per-billion level. In addition, soil samples were also analyzed. Future work will continue to include quarterly sampling and will be broadened in scope to include quantitative analysis of a larger number of compounds. A study of recovery efficiency is planned. Because of the high backgrounds on soil samples together with the uncertainties introduced by the cleanup procedures, there ismore » little hope of evaluating the distribution of a complex mixture of pesticides among the aqueous and solid phases in a drainage sample. No further sampling of soil from the streambed is therefore contemplated.« less

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frangopol, D. M.

1984-01-01

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delmau, L.H.; Haverlock, T.J.; Sloop, F.V., Jr.

This report presents the work that followed the CSSX model development completed in FY2002. The developed cesium and potassium extraction model was based on extraction data obtained from simple aqueous media. It was tested to ensure the validity of the prediction for the cesium extraction from actual waste. Compositions of the actual tank waste were obtained from the Savannah River Site personnel and were used to prepare defined simulants and to predict cesium distribution ratios using the model. It was therefore possible to compare the cesium distribution ratios obtained from the actual waste, the simulant, and the predicted values. Itmore » was determined that the predicted values agree with the measured values for the simulants. Predicted values also agreed, with three exceptions, with measured values for the tank wastes. Discrepancies were attributed in part to the uncertainty in the cation/anion balance in the actual waste composition, but likely more so to the uncertainty in the potassium concentration in the waste, given the demonstrated large competing effect of this metal on cesium extraction. It was demonstrated that the upper limit for the potassium concentration in the feed ought to not exceed 0.05 M in order to maintain suitable cesium distribution ratios.« less

Vacuum Permeator Analysis for Extraction of Tritium from DCLL Blankets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humrickhouse, Paul Weston; Merrill, Brad Johnson

2014-11-01

It is envisioned that tritium will be extracted from DCLL blankets using a vacuum permeator. We derive here an analytical solution for the extraction efficiency of a permeator tube, which is a function of only two dimensionless numbers: one that indicates whether radial transport is limited in the PbLi or in the solid membrane, and another that is the ratio of axial and radial transport times in the PbLi. The permeator efficiency is maximized by decreasing the velocity and tube diameter, and increasing the tube length. This is true regardless of the mass transport correlation used; we review several heremore » and find that they differ little, and the choice of correlation is not a source of significant uncertainty here. The PbLi solubility, on the other hand, is a large source of uncertainty, and we identify upper and lower bounds from the literature data. Under the most optimistic assumptions, we find that a ferritic steel permeator operating at 550 °C will need to be at least an order of magnitude larger in volume than previous conceptual designs using niobium and operating at higher temperatures.« less

Inventory Uncertainty Quantification using TENDL Covariance Data in Fispact-II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eastwood, J.W.; Morgan, J.G.; Sublet, J.-Ch., E-mail: jean-christophe.sublet@ccfe.ac.uk

2015-01-15

The new inventory code Fispact-II provides predictions of inventory, radiological quantities and their uncertainties using nuclear data covariance information. Central to the method is a novel fast pathways search algorithm using directed graphs. The pathways output provides (1) an aid to identifying important reactions, (2) fast estimates of uncertainties, (3) reduced models that retain important nuclides and reactions for use in the code's Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis module. Described are the methods that are being implemented for improving uncertainty predictions, quantification and propagation using the covariance data that the recent nuclear data libraries contain. In the TENDL library, above themore » upper energy of the resolved resonance range, a Monte Carlo method in which the covariance data come from uncertainties of the nuclear model calculations is used. The nuclear data files are read directly by FISPACT-II without any further intermediate processing. Variance and covariance data are processed and used by FISPACT-II to compute uncertainties in collapsed cross sections, and these are in turn used to predict uncertainties in inventories and all derived radiological data.« less

Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Zhong, Minzhou; Zeng, Guangming; Chen, Gaojie; Hua, Shanshan; Li, Xiaodong; Yuan, Yujie; Wu, Haipeng; Gao, Xiang

2017-02-01

Land-use change has direct impact on ecosystem services and alters ecosystem services values (ESVs). Ecosystem services analysis is beneficial for land management and decisions. However, the application of ESVs for decision-making in land use decisions is scarce. In this paper, a method, integrating ESVs to balance future ecosystem-service benefit and risk, is developed to optimize investment in land for ecological conservation in land use planning. Using ecological conservation in land use planning in Changsha as an example, ESVs is regarded as the expected ecosystem-service benefit. And uncertainty of land use change is regarded as risk. This method can optimize allocation of investment in land to improve ecological benefit. The result shows that investment should be partial to Liuyang City to get higher benefit. The investment should also be shifted from Liuyang City to other regions to reduce risk. In practice, lower limit and upper limit for weight distribution, which affects optimal outcome and selection of investment allocation, should be set in investment. This method can reveal the optimal spatial allocation of investment to maximize the expected ecosystem-service benefit at a given level of risk or minimize risk at a given level of expected ecosystem-service benefit. Our results of optimal analyses highlight tradeoffs between future ecosystem-service benefit and uncertainty of land use change in land use decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

42 CFR 447.512 - Drugs: Aggregate upper limits of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: Aggregate upper limits of payment. (a) Multiple source drugs. Except for brand name drugs that are certified... applies. (b) Other drugs. The agency payments for brand name drugs certified in accordance with paragraph... brand name drugs. (1) The upper limit for payment for multiple source drugs for which a specific limit...

Optimism in the face of uncertainty supported by a statistically-designed multi-armed bandit algorithm.

PubMed

Kamiura, Moto; Sano, Kohei

2017-10-01

The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is known as a heuristic in sequential decision-making problems. Overtaking method based on this principle is an effective algorithm to solve multi-armed bandit problems. It was defined by a set of some heuristic patterns of the formulation in the previous study. The objective of the present paper is to redefine the value functions of Overtaking method and to unify the formulation of them. The unified Overtaking method is associated with upper bounds of confidence intervals of expected rewards on statistics. The unification of the formulation enhances the universality of Overtaking method. Consequently we newly obtain Overtaking method for the exponentially distributed rewards, numerically analyze it, and show that it outperforms UCB algorithm on average. The present study suggests that the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty should be regarded as the statistics-based consequence of the law of large numbers for the sample mean of rewards and estimation of upper bounds of expected rewards, rather than as a heuristic, in the context of multi-armed bandit problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods, including exceptionally large non-systematic events, were reasonably estimated with the proposed approach. In addition, by accounting for uncertainties in each modeling step, one is able to obtain a better understanding of the influential factors in large flood formation dynamics.

An individualized strategy to estimate the effect of deformable registration uncertainty on accumulated dose in the upper abdomen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yibing; Petit, Steven F.; Vásquez Osorio, Eliana; Gupta, Vikas; Méndez Romero, Alejandra; Heijmen, Ben

2018-06-01

In the abdomen, it is challenging to assess the accuracy of deformable image registration (DIR) for individual patients, due to the lack of clear anatomical landmarks, which can hamper clinical applications that require high accuracy DIR, such as adaptive radiotherapy. In this study, we propose and evaluate a methodology for estimating the impact of uncertainties in DIR on calculated accumulated dose in the upper abdomen, in order to aid decision making in adaptive treatment approaches. Sixteen liver metastasis patients treated with SBRT were evaluated. Each patient had one planning and three daily treatment CT-scans. Each daily CT scan was deformably registered 132 times to the planning CT-scan, using a wide range of parameter settings for the registration algorithm. A subset of ‘realistic’ registrations was then objectively selected based on distances between mapped and target contours. The underlying 3D transformations of these registrations were used to assess the corresponding uncertainties in voxel positions, and delivered dose, with a focus on accumulated maximum doses in the hollow OARs, i.e. esophagus, stomach, and duodenum. The number of realistic registrations varied from 5 to 109, depending on the patient, emphasizing the need for individualized registration parameters. Considering for all patients the realistic registrations, the 99th percentile of the voxel position uncertainties was 5.6  ±  3.3 mm. This translated into a variation (difference between 1st and 99th percentile) in accumulated D max in hollow OARs of up to 3.3 Gy. For one patient a violation of the accumulated stomach dose outside the uncertainty band was detected. The observed variation in accumulated doses in the OARs related to registration uncertainty, emphasizes the need to investigate the impact of this uncertainty for any DIR algorithm prior to clinical use for dose accumulation. The proposed method for assessing on an individual patient basis the impact of uncertainties in DIR on accumulated dose is in principle applicable for all DIR algorithms allowing variation in registration parameters.

Assessment of uncertainties in soil erosion and sediment yield estimates at ungauged basins: an application to the Garra River basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swarnkar, Somil; Malini, Anshu; Tripathi, Shivam; Sinha, Rajiv

2018-04-01

High soil erosion and excessive sediment load are serious problems in several Himalayan river basins. To apply mitigation procedures, precise estimation of soil erosion and sediment yield with associated uncertainties are needed. Here, the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) equations are used to estimate the spatial pattern of soil erosion (SE) and sediment yield (SY) in the Garra River basin, a small Himalayan tributary of the River Ganga. A methodology is proposed for quantifying and propagating uncertainties in SE, SDR and SY estimates. Expressions for uncertainty propagation are derived by first-order uncertainty analysis, making the method viable even for large river basins. The methodology is applied to investigate the relative importance of different RUSLE factors in estimating the magnitude and uncertainties in SE over two distinct morphoclimatic regimes of the Garra River basin, namely the upper mountainous region and the lower alluvial plains. Our results suggest that average SE in the basin is very high (23 ± 4.7 t ha-1 yr-1) with higher values in the upper mountainous region (92 ± 15.2 t ha-1 yr-1) compared to the lower alluvial plains (19.3 ± 4 t ha-1 yr-1). Furthermore, the topographic steepness (LS) and crop practice (CP) factors exhibit higher uncertainties than other RUSLE factors. The annual average SY is estimated at two locations in the basin - Nanak Sagar Dam (NSD) for the period 1962-2008 and Husepur gauging station (HGS) for 1987-2002. The SY at NSD and HGS are estimated to be 6.9 ± 1.2 × 105 t yr-1 and 6.7 ± 1.4 × 106 t yr-1, respectively, and the estimated 90 % interval contains the observed values of 6.4 × 105 t yr-1 and 7.2 × 106 t yr-1, respectively. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed methodology for quantifying uncertainty in SE and SY estimates at ungauged basins.

Application of a baseflow filter for evaluating model structure suitability of the IHACRES CMD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S.

2015-02-01

The main objective of this study was to assess the predictive uncertainty from the rainfall-runoff model structure coupling a conceptual module (non-linear module) with a metric transfer function module (linear module). The methodology was primarily based on the comparison between the outputs of the rainfall-runoff model and those from an alternative model approach. An alternative model approach was used to minimise uncertainties arising from data and the model structure. A baseflow filter was adopted to better understand deficiencies in the forms of the rainfall-runoff model by avoiding the uncertainties related to data and the model structure. The predictive uncertainty from the model structure was investigated for representative groups of catchments having similar hydrological response characteristics in the upper Murrumbidgee Catchment. In the assessment of model structure suitability, the consistency (or variability) of catchment response over time and space in model performance and parameter values has been investigated to detect problems related to the temporal and spatial variability of the model accuracy. The predictive error caused by model uncertainty was evaluated through analysis of the variability of the model performance and parameters. A graphical comparison of model residuals, effective rainfall estimates and hydrographs was used to determine a model's ability related to systematic model deviation between simulated and observed behaviours and general behavioural differences in the timing and magnitude of peak flows. The model's predictability was very sensitive to catchment response characteristics. The linear module performs reasonably well in the wetter catchments but has considerable difficulties when applied to the drier catchments where a hydrologic response is dominated by quick flow. The non-linear module has a potential limitation in its capacity to capture non-linear processes for converting observed rainfall into effective rainfall in both the wetter and drier catchments. The comparative study based on a better quantification of the accuracy and precision of hydrological modelling predictions yields a better understanding for the potential improvement of model deficiencies.

Methodological accuracy of image-based electron density assessment using dual-energy computed tomography.

PubMed

Möhler, Christian; Wohlfahrt, Patrick; Richter, Christian; Greilich, Steffen

2017-06-01

Electron density is the most important tissue property influencing photon and ion dose distributions in radiotherapy patients. Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) enables the determination of electron density by combining the information on photon attenuation obtained at two different effective x-ray energy spectra. Most algorithms suggested so far use the CT numbers provided after image reconstruction as input parameters, i.e., are imaged-based. To explore the accuracy that can be achieved with these approaches, we quantify the intrinsic methodological and calibration uncertainty of the seemingly simplest approach. In the studied approach, electron density is calculated with a one-parametric linear superposition ('alpha blending') of the two DECT images, which is shown to be equivalent to an affine relation between the photon attenuation cross sections of the two x-ray energy spectra. We propose to use the latter relation for empirical calibration of the spectrum-dependent blending parameter. For a conclusive assessment of the electron density uncertainty, we chose to isolate the purely methodological uncertainty component from CT-related effects such as noise and beam hardening. Analyzing calculated spectrally weighted attenuation coefficients, we find universal applicability of the investigated approach to arbitrary mixtures of human tissue with an upper limit of the methodological uncertainty component of 0.2%, excluding high-Z elements such as iodine. The proposed calibration procedure is bias-free and straightforward to perform using standard equipment. Testing the calibration on five published data sets, we obtain very small differences in the calibration result in spite of different experimental setups and CT protocols used. Employing a general calibration per scanner type and voltage combination is thus conceivable. Given the high suitability for clinical application of the alpha-blending approach in combination with a very small methodological uncertainty, we conclude that further refinement of image-based DECT-algorithms for electron density assessment is not advisable. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Understanding medical decision making in hand surgery.

PubMed

Myers, John; McCabe, Steven J

2005-10-01

The practice of medicine takes place in an environment of uncertainty. Expected value decision making, prospect theory, and regret theory are three theories of decision making under uncertainty that may be used to help us learn how patients and physicians make decisions. These theories form the underpinnings of decision analysis and provide the opportunity to introduce the broad discipline of decision science. Because decision analysis and economic analysis are underrepresented in upper extremity surgery, the authors believe these are important areas for future research.

Metrology of vibration measurements by laser techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Martens, Hans-Jürgen

2008-06-01

Metrology as the art of careful measurement has been understood as uniform methodology for measurements in natural sciences, covering methods for the consistent assessment of experimental data and a corpus of rules regulating application in technology and in trade and industry. The knowledge, methods and tools available for precision measurements can be exploited for measurements at any level of uncertainty in any field of science and technology. A metrological approach to the preparation, execution and evaluation (including expression of uncertainty) of measurements of translational and rotational motion quantities using laser interferometer methods and techniques will be presented. The realization and dissemination of the SI units of motion quantities (vibration and shock) have been based on laser interferometer methods specified in international documentary standards. New and upgraded ISO standards are reviewed with respect to their suitability for ensuring traceable vibration measurements and calibrations in an extended frequency range of 0.4 Hz to higher than 100 kHz. Using adequate vibration exciters to generate sufficient displacement or velocity amplitudes, the upper frequency limits of the laser interferometer methods specified in ISO 16063-11 for frequencies <= 10 kHz can be expanded to 100 kHz and beyond. A comparison of different methods simultaneously used for vibration measurements at 100 kHz will be demonstrated. A statistical analysis of numerous experimental results proves the highest accuracy achievable currently in vibration measurements by specific laser methods, techniques and procedures (i.e. measurement uncertainty 0.05 % at frequencies <= 10 kHz, <= 1 % up to 100 kHz).

Evaluating Light Rain Drop Size Estimates from Multiwavelength Micropulse Lidar Network Profiling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lolli, Simone; Welton, Ellsworth J.; Campbell, James R.

2013-01-01

This paper investigates multiwavelength retrievals of median equivolumetric drop diameter D(sub 0) suitable for drizzle and light rain, through collocated 355-/527-nm Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) observations collected during precipitation occurring 9 May 2012 at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) project site. By applying a previously developed retrieval technique for infrared bands, the method exploits the differential backscatter by liquid water at 355 and 527 nm for water drops larger than approximately 50 micrometers. In the absence of molecular and aerosol scattering and neglecting any transmission losses, the ratio of the backscattering profiles at the two wavelengths (355 and 527 nm), measured from light rain below the cloud melting layer, can be described as a color ratio, which is directly related to D(sub 0). The uncertainty associated with this method is related to the unknown shape of the drop size spectrum and to the measurement error. Molecular and aerosol scattering contributions and relative transmission losses due to the various atmospheric constituents should be evaluated to derive D(sub 0) from the observed color ratio profiles. This process is responsible for increasing the uncertainty in the retrieval. Multiple scattering, especially for UV lidar, is another source of error, but it exhibits lower overall uncertainty with respect to other identified error sources. It is found that the total error upper limit on D(sub 0) approaches 50%. The impact of this retrieval for long-term MPLNET monitoring and its global data archive is discussed.

Probability of Future Observations Exceeding One-Sided, Normal, Upper Tolerance Limits

DOE PAGES

Edwards, Timothy S.

2014-10-29

Normal tolerance limits are frequently used in dynamic environments specifications of aerospace systems as a method to account for aleatory variability in the environments. Upper tolerance limits, when used in this way, are computed from records of the environment and used to enforce conservatism in the specification by describing upper extreme values the environment may take in the future. Components and systems are designed to withstand these extreme loads to ensure they do not fail under normal use conditions. The degree of conservatism in the upper tolerance limits is controlled by specifying the coverage and confidence level (usually written inmore » “coverage/confidence” form). Moreover, in high-consequence systems it is common to specify tolerance limits at 95% or 99% coverage and confidence at the 50% or 90% level. Despite the ubiquity of upper tolerance limits in the aerospace community, analysts and decision-makers frequently misinterpret their meaning. The misinterpretation extends into the standards that govern much of the acceptance and qualification of commercial and government aerospace systems. As a result, the risk of a future observation of the environment exceeding the upper tolerance limit is sometimes significantly underestimated by decision makers. This note explains the meaning of upper tolerance limits and a related measure, the upper prediction limit. So, the objective of this work is to clarify the probability of exceeding these limits in flight so that decision-makers can better understand the risk associated with exceeding design and test levels during flight and balance the cost of design and development with that of mission failure.« less

Resonant Proton Capture on Sodium-23 and Elemental Variations in Globular Cluster Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesaratto, John Michael

Globular clusters represent some of the oldest stellar bodies in the universe. As such, they are used as testing grounds for theories of stellar evolution and nucleosynthesis. Astronomical observations have shown star-to-star abundance variation in light-mass elements in all Galactic globular clusters. Standard stellar evolution models do not predict these variations. For instance, there exists a pronounced anticorrelation between Na and O in the cluster stars that is not observed in similar, isolated field stars. The current explanations for these observations are that a preexisting massive star could have polluted the interstellar medium where a younger star was born, or that stars undergo some additional mixing beyond dredge-up. Theoreticians rely on nuclear physics input in the form of thermonuclear reaction rates to edit or propose new theories predicting these abundance anomalies. The 23Na + p reaction is a bridge between the NeNa cycle and the MgAl cycle, but large uncertainties exist in the 23Na(p, gamma)24Mg reaction rate for burning temperatures relevant to red giant branch and asymptotic giant branch stars. The uncertainties arise from an expected, but unobserved resonance at Ecmr = 138 keV. A new high-intensity, low-energy electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) ion source at the Laboratory for Experimental Nuclear Astrophysics (LENA) has increased sensitivity for measuring this reaction. After many attempts and long measurement periods, a marginal signal (90% confidence level) has been observed from the resonance and a new strength has been established. This new strength marks a factor of 70 reduction from the previous strength upper limit. The strength has also been calculated as an upper limit at 95% confidence level. New reaction rates have been calculated for the 23Na(p, gamma)24Mg and 23 Na(p, alpha)20Ne reactions and the recommended value for the 23Na(p, gamma) 24Mg rate has been reduced by over an order of magnitude at T 9 = 0.07. This will have implications for the processing of material between the NeNa and MgAl cycles in stellar models.

How safe is safe enough? Radiation risk for a human mission to Mars.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Kim, Myung-Hee Y; Chappell, Lori J; Huff, Janice L

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate.

How Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.; Huff, Janice L.

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate. PMID:24146746

The Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition: dating, stratigraphy, and isochronous markers.

PubMed

Blockley, S P E; Ramsey, C Bronk; Higham, T F G

2008-11-01

Accurate and precise dating is vital to our understanding of the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition. There are, however, a number of uncertainties in the chronologies currently available for this period. We attempt to examine these uncertainties by utilizing a number of recent developments in the field. These include: the precise dating of the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) tephra by 40Ar/39Ar; the tracing of this tephra to a number of deposits that are radiocarbon dated; the publication of revised radiocarbon calibration data for the period, showing a much better convergence with other available data than during the recent IntCal comparison; and a layer-counted ice-core chronology extending beyond 40,000cal BP. Our data comparisons suggest that a reasonable overall convergence between calibrated radiocarbon ages and calendar dates is possible using the new curves. Additionally, we suggest that charcoal-based radiocarbon ages, as well as bone-based radiocarbon determinations, require cautious interpretation in this period. Potentially, these issues extend far beyond the sites in this study and should be of serious concern to archaeologists studying the Middle to Upper Paleolithic. We conclude by outlining a strategy for moving the science forward by a closer integration of archaeology, chronology, and stratigraphy.

Climate change on the Colorado River: a method to search for robust management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefe, R.; Fischbach, J. R.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is a principal source of water for the seven Basin States, providing approximately 16.5 maf per year to users in the southwestern United States and Mexico. Though the dynamics of the river ensure Upper Basin users a reliable supply of water, the three Lower Basin states (California, Nevada, and Arizona) are in danger of delivery interruptions as Upper Basin demand increases and climate change threatens to reduce future streamflows. In light of the recent drought and uncertain effects of climate change on Colorado River flows, we evaluate the performance of a suite of policies modeled after the shortage sharing agreement adopted in December 2007 by the Department of the Interior. We build on the current literature by using a simplified model of the Lower Colorado River to consider future streamflow scenarios given climate change uncertainty. We also generate different scenarios of parametric consumptive use growth in the Upper Basin and evaluate alternate management strategies in light of these uncertainties. Uncertainty associated with climate change is represented with a multi-model ensemble from the literature, using a nearest neighbor perturbation to increase the size of the ensemble. We use Robust Decision Making to compare near-term or long-term management strategies across an ensemble of plausible future scenarios with the goal of identifying one or more approaches that are robust to alternate assumptions about the future. This method entails using search algorithms to quantitatively identify vulnerabilities that may threaten a given strategy (including the current operating policy) and characterize key tradeoffs between strategies under different scenarios.

On the Determination of Uncertainty and Limit of Detection in Label-Free Biosensors.

PubMed

Lavín, Álvaro; Vicente, Jesús de; Holgado, Miguel; Laguna, María F; Casquel, Rafael; Santamaría, Beatriz; Maigler, María Victoria; Hernández, Ana L; Ramírez, Yolanda

2018-06-26

A significant amount of noteworthy articles reviewing different label-free biosensors are being published in the last years. Most of the times, the comparison among the different biosensors is limited by the procedure used of calculating the limit of detection and the measurement uncertainty. This article clarifies and establishes a simple procedure to determine the calibration function and the uncertainty of the concentration measured at any point of the measuring interval of a generic label-free biosensor. The value of the limit of detection arises naturally from this model as the limit at which uncertainty tends when the concentration tends to zero. The need to provide additional information, such as the measurement interval and its linearity, among others, on the analytical systems and biosensor in addition to the detection limit is pointed out. Finally, the model is applied to curves that are typically obtained in immunoassays and a discussion is made on the application validity of the model and its limitations.

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hametz, Mark E.; Beaver, Brian A.

2012-01-01

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Exploring L1 model space in search of conductivity bounds for the MT problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheelock, B. D.; Parker, R. L.

2013-12-01

Geophysical inverse problems of the type encountered in electromagnetic techniques are highly non-unique. As a result, any single inverted model, though feasible, is at best inconclusive and at worst misleading. In this paper, we use modified inversion methods to establish bounds on electrical conductivity within a model of the earth. Our method consists of two steps, each making use of the 1-norm in model regularization. Both 1-norm minimization problems are framed without approximation as non-negative least-squares (NNLS) problems. First, we must identify a parsimonious set of regions within the model for which upper and lower bounds on average conductivity will be sought. This is accomplished by minimizing the 1-norm of spatial variation, which produces a model with a limited number of homogeneous regions; in fact, the number of homogeneous regions will never be greater than the number of data, regardless of the number of free parameters supplied. The second step establishes bounds for each of these regions with pairs of inversions. The new suite of inversions also uses a 1-norm penalty, but applied to the conductivity values themselves, rather than the spatial variation thereof. In the bounding step we use the 1-norm of our model parameters because it is proportional to average conductivity. For a lower bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm within a bounding region is minimized. For an upper bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm everywhere outside a bounding region is minimized. The latter minimization has the effect of concentrating conductance into the bounding region. Taken together, these bounds are a measure of the uncertainty in the associated region of our model. Starting with a blocky inverse solution is key in the selection of the bounding regions. Of course, there is a tradeoff between resolution and uncertainty: an increase in resolution (smaller bounding regions), results in greater uncertainty (wider bounds). Minimization of the 1-norm of spatial variation delivers the fewest possible regions defined by a mean conductivity, the quantity we wish to bound. Thus, these regions present a natural set for which the most narrow and discriminating bounds can be found. For illustration, we apply these techniques to synthetic magnetotelluric (MT) data sets resulting from one-dimensional (1D) earth models. In each case we find that with realistic data coverage, any single inverted model can often stray from the truth, while the computed bounds on an encompassing region contain both the inverted and the true conductivities, indicating that our measure of model uncertainty is robust. Such estimates of uncertainty for conductivity can then be translated to bounds on important petrological parameters such as mineralogy, porosity, saturation, and fluid type.

Event-triggered resilient filtering with stochastic uncertainties and successive packet dropouts via variance-constrained approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Chaoqing; Hu, Jun; Chen, Dongyan; Liu, Yurong; Alsaadi, Fuad E.

2018-07-01

In this paper, we discuss the event-triggered resilient filtering problem for a class of time-varying systems subject to stochastic uncertainties and successive packet dropouts. The event-triggered mechanism is employed with hope to reduce the communication burden and save network resources. The stochastic uncertainties are considered to describe the modelling errors and the phenomenon of successive packet dropouts is characterized by a random variable obeying the Bernoulli distribution. The aim of the paper is to provide a resilient event-based filtering approach for addressed time-varying systems such that, for all stochastic uncertainties, successive packet dropouts and filter gain perturbation, an optimized upper bound of the filtering error covariance is obtained by designing the filter gain. Finally, simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed robust optimal filtering strategy.

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia

2017-04-01

Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was considered as the critical rainfall combination responsible for triggering the landslide event. Only events whose critical rainfall combinations have a return period above 3 years were included. This criterion reduces the likelihood of been included events whose triggering factor was other than rainfall. The rainfall quantity-duration threshold for the Lisbon region was firstly defined using the linear and potential regression. Considering that this threshold allow the existence of false negatives (i.e. events below the threshold) it was also identified the lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds. These limits were defined empirically by establishing the quantity-durations combinations bellow which no landslides were recorded (lower limit) and the quantity-durations combinations above which only landslides were recorded without any false positive occurrence (upper limit). The zone between the lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds was analysed using a probabilistic approach, defining the uncertainties of each rainfall critical conditions in the triggering of landslides. Finally, the performances of the thresholds obtained in this study were assessed using ROC metrics. This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [grant number PTDC/ATPGEO/1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. Sérgio Cruz Oliveira is a post-doc fellow of the FCT [grant number SFRH/BPD/85827/2012].

Application of the SCALE TSUNAMI Tools for the Validation of Criticality Safety Calculations Involving 233U

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Don; Rearden, Bradley T; Hollenbach, Daniel F

2009-02-01

The Radiochemical Development Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been storing solid materials containing 233U for decades. Preparations are under way to process these materials into a form that is inherently safe from a nuclear criticality safety perspective. This will be accomplished by down-blending the {sup 233}U materials with depleted or natural uranium. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy, a study has been performed using the SCALE sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools to demonstrate how these tools could be used to validate nuclear criticality safety calculations of selected process and storage configurations. ISOTEK nuclear criticality safetymore » staff provided four models that are representative of the criticality safety calculations for which validation will be needed. The SCALE TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences were used to generate energy-dependent k{sub eff} sensitivity profiles for each nuclide and reaction present in the four safety analysis models, also referred to as the applications, and in a large set of critical experiments. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was used together with the sensitivity profiles and the cross-section uncertainty data contained in the SCALE covariance data files to propagate the cross-section uncertainties ({Delta}{sigma}/{sigma}) to k{sub eff} uncertainties ({Delta}k/k) for each application model. The SCALE TSUNAMI-IP module was also used to evaluate the similarity of each of the 672 critical experiments with each application. Results of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment are presented in this report. A total of 142 experiments were judged to be similar to application 1, and 68 experiments were judged to be similar to application 2. None of the 672 experiments were judged to be adequately similar to applications 3 and 4. Discussion of the uncertainty analysis and similarity assessment is provided for each of the four applications. Example upper subcritical limits (USLs) were generated for application 1 based on trending of the energy of average lethargy of neutrons causing fission, trending of the TSUNAMI similarity parameters, and use of data adjustment techniques.« less

Determination of the uncertainties in radiation doses from ingestion of strontium-90

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apostoaei, Andrei Iulian

Quantification of the uncertainties in the internal dosimetry is important because it can impact the outcome of dose reconstruction, risk assessment or epidemiological studies. This research focused on determination of the uncertainties in the dose factors from a single ingestion of 90Sr by adults, and analyzed the changes with age and the effect of gender. The uncertainties in the estimated dose factors are a factor of 6 for the bone surface, 5 for the red bone marrow, 2.5 for bladder and stomach, 2.2 for the small intestine, 2.1 for the upper large intestine and 2.7 for the lower large intestine. For the rest of the organs the uncertainty is a factor of 3. Only four parameters of the biokinetic model showed an age-dependency within the adult age group: the fractional transfers of strontium from plasma to cortical and trabecular bone, and the removal rates from the cortical and trabecular bone, respectively. When age-dependent biokinetic parameters were used, the estimated dose-factors are very close to the dose factors obtained using age-independent kinetics (within 40%). Thus, the dose factors based on age-independent parameters should suffice for most practical purposes. The dose factors and the associated uncertainties were also calculated as a function of age-at-exposure and attained age. These age dependent curves can be used for estimating doses from continuous intakes, or doses delivered over a limited portion of time. In addition to the committed dose, an expected dose is also estimated in this work. The expected dose is calculated using the dose rate weighted by the probability of surviving up to the age when the dose-rate is delivered. For exposure at young ages the expected dose and the committed dose are similar, but the committed dose decreases to zero when exposure occurs close to age 70, while the expected dose has elevated values pass age 70. No gender differences were found for bone surface, for red bone marrow, and the large intestine. The doses to the soft tissues for females are larger by 20% than the doses for males, because of the differences in the whole-body mass between males and females.

Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

Alternate methods for FAAT S-curve generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, A.M.

The FAAT (Foreign Asset Assessment Team) assessment methodology attempts to derive a probability of effect as a function of incident field strength. The probability of effect is the likelihood that the stress put on a system exceeds its strength. In the FAAT methodology, both the stress and strength are random variables whose statistical properties are estimated by experts. Each random variable has two components of uncertainty: systematic and random. The systematic uncertainty drives the confidence bounds in the FAAT assessment. Its variance can be reduced by improved information. The variance of the random uncertainty is not reducible. The FAAT methodologymore » uses an assessment code called ARES to generate probability of effect curves (S-curves) at various confidence levels. ARES assumes log normal distributions for all random variables. The S-curves themselves are log normal cumulants associated with the random portion of the uncertainty. The placement of the S-curves depends on confidence bounds. The systematic uncertainty in both stress and strength is usually described by a mode and an upper and lower variance. Such a description is not consistent with the log normal assumption of ARES and an unsatisfactory work around solution is used to obtain the required placement of the S-curves at each confidence level. We have looked into this situation and have found that significant errors are introduced by this work around. These errors are at least several dB-W/cm{sup 2} at all confidence levels, but they are especially bad in the estimate of the median. In this paper, we suggest two alternate solutions for the placement of S-curves. To compare these calculational methods, we have tabulated the common combinations of upper and lower variances and generated the relevant S-curves offsets from the mode difference of stress and strength.« less

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

Temporal Evolution of the High-energy Irradiation and Water Content of TRAPPIST-1 Exoplanets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bourrier, V.; Ehrenreich, D.; Wit, J. de

The ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 hosts seven Earth-size transiting planets, some of which could harbor liquid water on their surfaces. Ultraviolet observations are essential to measuring their high-energy irradiation and searching for photodissociated water escaping from their putative atmospheres. Our new observations of the TRAPPIST-1 Ly α line during the transit of TRAPPIST-1c show an evolution of the star emission over three months, preventing us from assessing the presence of an extended hydrogen exosphere. Based on the current knowledge of the stellar irradiation, we investigated the likely history of water loss in the system. Planets b to d might stillmore » be in a runaway phase, and planets within the orbit of TRAPPIST-1g could have lost more than 20 Earth oceans after 8 Gyr of hydrodynamic escape. However, TRAPPIST-1e to h might have lost less than three Earth oceans if hydrodynamic escape stopped once they entered the habitable zone (HZ). We caution that these estimates remain limited by the large uncertainty on the planet masses. They likely represent upper limits on the actual water loss because our assumptions maximize the X-rays to ultraviolet-driven escape, while photodissociation in the upper atmospheres should be the limiting process. Late-stage outgassing could also have contributed significant amounts of water for the outer, more massive planets after they entered the HZ. While our results suggest that the outer planets are the best candidates to search for water with the JWST , they also highlight the need for theoretical studies and complementary observations in all wavelength domains to determine the nature of the TRAPPIST-1 planets and their potential habitability.« less

The upper limit of vulnerability of the heart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazeh, Nachaat

Fibrillation is a major cause of death worldwide and it affects a very large part of the population. Its mechanism is not fully understood and the immediate remedy is to defibrillate. While defibrillation has been very successful, defibrillators apply a shock strength that could itself reinduce fibrillation. There exists an upper limit of vulnerability above which a shock does not induce reentry and therefore does not expose the patient to the reinduction of fibrillation. This upper limit of vulnerability has been predicted theoretically and observed experimentally, but the mechanism of the upper limit has not been well understood. This work will investigate the upper limit of vulnerability using a computer simulation. The bidomain model of the cardiac tissue has been used extensively for the past thirty years. The Beeler-Reuter model of the membrane kinetics has also been used in conjunction with the bidomain. This computer simulation of the bidomain and the Beeler-Reuter model will allow us to investigate the response of the induced virtual electrodes necessary to produce reentry. We will look at the vulnerable window and investigate the upper limit above which defibrillators can safely apply any shock strength to stop a fibrillation. One main conclusion is that widespread, random heterogeneities must be included in our model of cardiac tissue in order to predict an upper limit of vulnerability.

Bayesian approach for counting experiment statistics applied to a neutrino point source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, D.; Brayeur, L.; Casier, M.; de Vries, K. D.; Golup, G.; van Eijndhoven, N.

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a model independent analysis method following Bayesian statistics to analyse data from a generic counting experiment and apply it to the search for neutrinos from point sources. We discuss a test statistic defined following a Bayesian framework that will be used in the search for a signal. In case no signal is found, we derive an upper limit without the introduction of approximations. The Bayesian approach allows us to obtain the full probability density function for both the background and the signal rate. As such, we have direct access to any signal upper limit. The upper limit derivation directly compares with a frequentist approach and is robust in the case of low-counting observations. Furthermore, it allows also to account for previous upper limits obtained by other analyses via the concept of prior information without the need of the ad hoc application of trial factors. To investigate the validity of the presented Bayesian approach, we have applied this method to the public IceCube 40-string configuration data for 10 nearby blazars and we have obtained a flux upper limit, which is in agreement with the upper limits determined via a frequentist approach. Furthermore, the upper limit obtained compares well with the previously published result of IceCube, using the same data set.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TANK 19F FLOOR SAMPLE RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.

2010-09-02

Representative sampling has been completed for characterization of the residual material on the floor of Tank 19F as per the statistical sampling plan developed by Harris and Shine. Samples from eight locations have been obtained from the tank floor and two of the samples were archived as a contingency. Six samples, referred to in this report as the current scrape samples, have been submitted to and analyzed by SRNL. This report contains the statistical analysis of the floor sample analytical results to determine if further data are needed to reduce uncertainty. Included are comparisons with the prior Mantis samples resultsmore » to determine if they can be pooled with the current scrape samples to estimate the upper 95% confidence limits (UCL95%) for concentration. Statistical analysis revealed that the Mantis and current scrape sample results are not compatible. Therefore, the Mantis sample results were not used to support the quantification of analytes in the residual material. Significant spatial variability among the current scrape sample results was not found. Constituent concentrations were similar between the North and South hemispheres as well as between the inner and outer regions of the tank floor. The current scrape sample results from all six samples fall within their 3-sigma limits. In view of the results from numerous statistical tests, the data were pooled from all six current scrape samples. As such, an adequate sample size was provided for quantification of the residual material on the floor of Tank 19F. The uncertainty is quantified in this report by an UCL95% on each analyte concentration. The uncertainty in analyte concentration was calculated as a function of the number of samples, the average, and the standard deviation of the analytical results. The UCL95% was based entirely on the six current scrape sample results (each averaged across three analytical determinations).« less

A Geochemical Mass-Balance Method for Base-Flow Separation, Upper Hillsborough River Watershed, West-Central Florida, 2003-2005 and 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kish, G.R.; Stringer, C.E.; Stewart, M.T.; Rains, M.C.; Torres, A.E.

2010-01-01

Geochemical mass-balance (GMB) and conductivity mass-balance (CMB) methods for hydrograph separation were used to determine the contribution of base flow to total stormflow at two sites in the upper Hillsborough River watershed in west-central Florida from 2003-2005 and at one site in 2009. The chemical and isotopic composition of streamflow and precipitation was measured during selected local and frontal low- and high-intensity storm events and compared to the geochemical and isotopic composition of groundwater. Input for the GMB method included cation, anion, and stable isotope concentrations of surface water and groundwater, whereas input for the CMB method included continuous or point-sample measurement of specific conductance. The surface water is a calcium-bicarbonate type water, which closely resembles groundwater geochemically, indicating that much of the surface water in the upper Hillsborough River basin is derived from local groundwater discharge. This discharge into the Hillsborough River at State Road 39 and at Hillsborough River State Park becomes diluted by precipitation and runoff during the wet season, but retains the calcium-bicarbonate characteristics of Upper Floridan aquifer water. Field conditions limited the application of the GMB method to low-intensity storms but the CMB method was applied to both low-intensity and high-intensity storms. The average contribution of base flow to total discharge for all storms ranged from 31 to 100 percent, whereas the contribution of base flow to total discharge during peak discharge periods ranged from less than 10 percent to 100 percent. Although calcium, magnesium, and silica were consistent markers of Upper Floridan aquifer chemistry, their use in calculating base flow by the GMB method was limited because the frequency of point data collected in this study was not sufficient to capture the complete hydrograph from pre-event base-flow to post-event base-flow concentrations. In this study, pre-event water represented somewhat diluted groundwater. Streamflow conductivity integrates the concentrations of the major ions, and the logistics of acquiring specific conductance at frequent time intervals are less complicated than data collection, sample processing, shipment, and analysis of water samples in a laboratory. The acquisition of continuous specific conductance data reduces uncertainty associated with less-frequently collected geochemical point data.

Funnel plot control limits to identify poorly performing healthcare providers when there is uncertainty in the value of the benchmark.

PubMed

Manktelow, Bradley N; Seaton, Sarah E; Evans, T Alun

2016-12-01

There is an increasing use of statistical methods, such as funnel plots, to identify poorly performing healthcare providers. Funnel plots comprise the construction of control limits around a benchmark and providers with outcomes falling outside the limits are investigated as potential outliers. The benchmark is usually estimated from observed data but uncertainty in this estimate is usually ignored when constructing control limits. In this paper, the use of funnel plots in the presence of uncertainty in the value of the benchmark is reviewed for outcomes from a Binomial distribution. Two methods to derive the control limits are shown: (i) prediction intervals; (ii) tolerance intervals Tolerance intervals formally include the uncertainty in the value of the benchmark while prediction intervals do not. The probability properties of 95% control limits derived using each method were investigated through hypothesised scenarios. Neither prediction intervals nor tolerance intervals produce funnel plot control limits that satisfy the nominal probability characteristics when there is uncertainty in the value of the benchmark. This is not necessarily to say that funnel plots have no role to play in healthcare, but that without the development of intervals satisfying the nominal probability characteristics they must be interpreted with care. © The Author(s) 2014.

Quantitative analysis of trace levels of surface contamination by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy Part I: statistical uncertainty near the detection limit.

PubMed

Hill, Shannon B; Faradzhev, Nadir S; Powell, Cedric J

2017-12-01

We discuss the problem of quantifying common sources of statistical uncertainties for analyses of trace levels of surface contamination using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. We examine the propagation of error for peak-area measurements using common forms of linear and polynomial background subtraction including the correlation of points used to determine both background and peak areas. This correlation has been neglected in previous analyses, but we show that it contributes significantly to the peak-area uncertainty near the detection limit. We introduce the concept of relative background subtraction variance (RBSV) which quantifies the uncertainty introduced by the method of background determination relative to the uncertainty of the background area itself. The uncertainties of the peak area and atomic concentration and of the detection limit are expressed using the RBSV, which separates the contributions from the acquisition parameters, the background-determination method, and the properties of the measured spectrum. These results are then combined to find acquisition strategies that minimize the total measurement time needed to achieve a desired detection limit or atomic-percentage uncertainty for a particular trace element. Minimization of data-acquisition time is important for samples that are sensitive to x-ray dose and also for laboratories that need to optimize throughput.

Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignot, Juliette; García-Serrano, Javier; Swingedouw, Didier; Germe, Agathe; Nguyen, Sébastien; Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Ray, Sulagna

2016-08-01

Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal prediction exercises, a high frequency of start dates is needed to achieve robust statistical significance, and a large ensemble size is required to increase the signal to noise ratio.

Search for the lepton flavor violating decay Z → e μ in p p collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.

2014-10-23

We use the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider to search for the lepton flavor violating process Z→eμ in pp collisions using 20.3 fb -1 of data collected at √s=8 TeV. An enhancement in the eμ invariant mass spectrum is searched for at the Z-boson mass. The number of Z bosons produced in the data sample is estimated using events of similar topology, Z→ee and μμ, significantly reducing the systematic uncertainty in the measurement. In conclusion, there is no evidence of an enhancement at the Z-boson mass, resulting in an upper limit on the branching fraction, B(Z→eμ)<7.5×10 -7 atmore » the 95% confidence level.« less

Applying Incremental Sampling Methodology to Soils Containing Heterogeneously Distributed Metallic Residues to Improve Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Clausen, J L; Georgian, T; Gardner, K H; Douglas, T A

2018-01-01

This study compares conventional grab sampling to incremental sampling methodology (ISM) to characterize metal contamination at a military small-arms-range. Grab sample results had large variances, positively skewed non-normal distributions, extreme outliers, and poor agreement between duplicate samples even when samples were co-located within tens of centimeters of each other. The extreme outliers strongly influenced the grab sample means for the primary contaminants lead (Pb) and antinomy (Sb). In contrast, median and mean metal concentrations were similar for the ISM samples. ISM significantly reduced measurement uncertainty of estimates of the mean, increasing data quality (e.g., for environmental risk assessments) with fewer samples (e.g., decreasing total project costs). Based on Monte Carlo resampling simulations, grab sampling resulted in highly variable means and upper confidence limits of the mean relative to ISM.

Prospects to verify a possible dark matter hint in cosmic antiprotons with antideuterons and antihelium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsmeier, Michael; Donato, Fiorenza; Fornengo, Nicolao

2018-05-01

Cosmic rays are an important tool to study dark matter (DM) annihilation in our Galaxy. Recently, a possible hint for dark matter annihilation was found in the antiproton spectrum measured by AMS-02, even though the result might be affected by theoretical uncertainties. A complementary way to test its dark matter interpretation would be the observation of low-energy antinuclei in cosmic rays. We determine the chances to observe antideuterons with GAPS and AMS-02 and the implications for the ongoing AMS-02 antihelium searches. We find that the corresponding antideuteron signal is within the GAPS and AMS-02 detection potential. If, more conservatively, the putative signal was considered as an upper limit on DM annihilation, our results would indicate the highest possible fluxes for antideuterons and antihelium compatible with current antiproton data.

Total cross section for the γd-->π-pp reaction between 380 and 840 MeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asai, M.; Endo, I.; Harada, M.; Kasai, S.; Niki, K.; Sumi, Y.; Kato, S.; Maruyama, K.; Murata, Y.; Muto, M.; Yoshida, K.; Iwatani, K.; Hasai, H.; Ito, H.; Maki, T.; Rangacharyulu, C.; Shimizu, H.; Wada, Y.

1990-09-01

The total cross section for the γd-->π-pp reaction has been measured for incident photon energies from 380 to 840 MeV in steps of 10 MeV, with the best energy resolution attained so far. A large-acceptance detector was used to observe the reaction products. Overall uncertainties in the deduced cross sections are less than 9% (~4% statistical and ~8% systematic). The results are in excellent agreement with previous bubble chamber measurements and do not show any statistically significant structure which can be interpreted as evidence for the formation of dibaryon resonances. An upper limit at 95% confidence level of σpeakΓ<230 μb MeV is obtained for a resonance in the vicinity of photon energy 700 MeV (mass~2490 MeV).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edwards, Timothy S.

Normal tolerance limits are frequently used in dynamic environments specifications of aerospace systems as a method to account for aleatory variability in the environments. Upper tolerance limits, when used in this way, are computed from records of the environment and used to enforce conservatism in the specification by describing upper extreme values the environment may take in the future. Components and systems are designed to withstand these extreme loads to ensure they do not fail under normal use conditions. The degree of conservatism in the upper tolerance limits is controlled by specifying the coverage and confidence level (usually written inmore » “coverage/confidence” form). Moreover, in high-consequence systems it is common to specify tolerance limits at 95% or 99% coverage and confidence at the 50% or 90% level. Despite the ubiquity of upper tolerance limits in the aerospace community, analysts and decision-makers frequently misinterpret their meaning. The misinterpretation extends into the standards that govern much of the acceptance and qualification of commercial and government aerospace systems. As a result, the risk of a future observation of the environment exceeding the upper tolerance limit is sometimes significantly underestimated by decision makers. This note explains the meaning of upper tolerance limits and a related measure, the upper prediction limit. So, the objective of this work is to clarify the probability of exceeding these limits in flight so that decision-makers can better understand the risk associated with exceeding design and test levels during flight and balance the cost of design and development with that of mission failure.« less

42 CFR 447.321 - Outpatient hospital and clinic services: Application of upper payment limits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Outpatient hospital and clinic services: Application of upper payment limits. 447.321 Section 447.321 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID... Clinic Services § 447.321 Outpatient hospital and clinic services: Application of upper payment limits...

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

A Bayesian method to quantify azimuthal anisotropy model uncertainties: application to global azimuthal anisotropy in the upper mantle and transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, K.; Beghein, C.

2018-04-01

Seismic anisotropy is a powerful tool to constrain mantle deformation, but its existence in the deep upper mantle and topmost lower mantle is still uncertain. Recent results from higher mode Rayleigh waves have, however, revealed the presence of 1 per cent azimuthal anisotropy between 300 and 800 km depth, and changes in azimuthal anisotropy across the mantle transition zone boundaries. This has important consequences for our understanding of mantle convection patterns and deformation of deep mantle material. Here, we propose a Bayesian method to model depth variations in azimuthal anisotropy and to obtain quantitative uncertainties on the fast seismic direction and anisotropy amplitude from phase velocity dispersion maps. We applied this new method to existing global fundamental and higher mode Rayleigh wave phase velocity maps to assess the likelihood of azimuthal anisotropy in the deep upper mantle and to determine whether previously detected changes in anisotropy at the transition zone boundaries are robustly constrained by those data. Our results confirm that deep upper-mantle azimuthal anisotropy is favoured and well constrained by the higher mode data employed. The fast seismic directions are in agreement with our previously published model. The data favour a model characterized, on average, by changes in azimuthal anisotropy at the top and bottom of the transition zone. However, this change in fast axes is not a global feature as there are regions of the model where the azimuthal anisotropy direction is unlikely to change across depths in the deep upper mantle. We were, however, unable to detect any clear pattern or connection with surface tectonics. Future studies will be needed to further improve the lateral resolution of this type of model at transition zone depths.

Finite-time robust stabilization of uncertain delayed neural networks with discontinuous activations via delayed feedback control.

PubMed

Wang, Leimin; Shen, Yi; Sheng, Yin

2016-04-01

This paper is concerned with the finite-time robust stabilization of delayed neural networks (DNNs) in the presence of discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties. By using the nonsmooth analysis and control theory, a delayed controller is designed to realize the finite-time robust stabilization of DNNs with discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties, and the upper bound of the settling time functional for stabilization is estimated. Finally, two examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraining the generalized uncertainty principle with the atomic weak-equivalence-principle test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Dongfeng; Wang, Jin; Zhan, Mingsheng

2017-04-01

Various models of quantum gravity imply the Planck-scale modifications of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle into a so-called generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). The GUP effects on high-energy physics, cosmology, and astrophysics have been extensively studied. Here, we focus on the weak-equivalence-principle (WEP) violation induced by the GUP. Results from the WEP test with the 85Rb-87Rb dual-species atom interferometer are used to set upper bounds on parameters in two GUP proposals. A 1045-level bound on the Kempf-Mangano-Mann proposal and a 1027-level bound on Maggiore's proposal, which are consistent with bounds from other experiments, are obtained. All these bounds have huge room for improvement in the future.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

A study on flammability limits of fuel mixtures.

PubMed

Kondo, Shigeo; Takizawa, Kenji; Takahashi, Akifumi; Tokuhashi, Kazuaki; Sekiya, Akira

2008-07-15

Flammability limit measurements were made for various binary and ternary mixtures prepared from nine different compounds. The compounds treated are methane, propane, ethylene, propylene, methyl ether, methyl formate, 1,1-difluoroethane, ammonia, and carbon monoxide. The observed values of lower flammability limits of mixtures were found to be in good agreement to the calculated values by Le Chatelier's formula. As for the upper limits, however, some are close to the calculated values but some are not. It has been found that the deviations of the observed values of upper flammability limits from the calculated ones are mostly to lower concentrations. Modification of Le Chatelier's formula was made to better fit to the observed values of upper flammability limits. This procedure reduced the average difference between the observed and calculated values of upper flammability limits to one-third of the initial value.

Vertical microphysical profiles of convective clouds as a tool for obtaining aerosol cloud-mediated climate forcings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenfeld, Daniel

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which ismore » the same as CCN(S). Developing and validating this methodology was possible thanks to the ASR/ARM measurements of CCN and vertical updraft profiles. Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at the ARM sites in Oklahoma, Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25º restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day. This methodology will likely allow overcoming the challenge of quantifying the aerosol indirect effect and facilitate a substantial reduction of the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

A search has been made for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search makes use of 3.2fb -1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. Using a combination of data-driven and Monte-Carlo-based approaches, the Standard Model background is estimated to be 0.27more » $$-0.10\\atop{+0.22}$$ events. No events are observed in the signal region; considering the expected background and its uncertainty, this observation implies a model-independent 95 % CL upper limit of 0.93 fb (3.0 events) on the visible cross section due to physics beyond the Standard Model. In the context of a generalized model of gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with a bino-like next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, this leads to a lower limit of 1650 GeV on the mass of a degenerate octet of gluino states, independent of the mass of the lighter bino-like neutralino.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

A search has been made for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search makes use of 3.2 fb -13.2 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. Using a combination of data-driven and Monte-Carlo-based approaches, the Standard Model background is estimated to be 0.27+0.22-0.100.27-0.10+0.22 events. No events are observed in the signal region; considering the expected background and its uncertainty, this observation implies a model-independent 95 % CL upper limit of 0.93 fb (3.0 events) onmore » the visible cross section due to physics beyond the Standard Model. In the context of a generalized model of gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with a bino-like next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, this leads to a lower limit of 1650 GeV on the mass of a degenerate octet of gluino states, independent of the mass of the lighter bino-like neutralino.« less

Using aerogravity and seismic data to model the bathymetry and upper crustal structure beneath the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muto, A.; Peters, L. E.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Riverman, K. L.

2013-12-01

Recent estimates indicate that ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast in West Antarctica are losing substantial mass through sub-ice-shelf melting and contributing to the accelerating mass loss of the grounded ice buttressed by them. For Pine Island Glacier (PIG), relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water has been identified as the key driver of the sub-ice-shelf melting although poor constraints on PIG sub-ice shelf have restricted thorough understanding of these ice-ocean interactions. Aerogravity data from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) have been useful in identifying large-scale (on the order of ten kilometers) features but the results have relatively large uncertainties due to the inherent non-uniqueness of the gravity inversion. Seismic methods offer the most direct means of providing water thickness and upper crustal geological constraints, but availability of such data sets over the PIG ice shelf has been limited due to logistical constraints. Here we present a comparative analysis of the bathymetry and upper crustal structure beneath the ice shelf of PIG through joint inversion of OIB aerogravity data and in situ active-source seismic measurements collected in the 2012-13 austral summer. Preliminary results indicate improved resolution of the ocean cavity, particularly in the interior and sides of the PIG ice shelf, and sedimentary drape across the region. Seismically derived variations in ice and ocean water densities are also applied to the gravity inversion to produce a more robust model of PIG sub-ice shelf structure, as opposed to commonly used single ice and water densities across the entire study region. Misfits between the seismically-constrained gravity inversion and that estimated previously from aerogravity alone provide insights on the sensitivity of gravity measurements to model perturbations and highlight the limitations of employing gravity data to model ice shelf environments when no other sub-ice constraints are available.

Periglacial fires and trees in a continental setting of Central Canada, Upper Pleistocene.

PubMed

Bélanger, N; Carcaillet, C; Padbury, G A; Harvey-Schafer, A N; Van Rees, K J C

2014-03-01

Fire is a key factor controlling global vegetation patterns and carbon cycling. It mostly occurs under warm periods during which fuel builds up with sufficient moisture, whereas such conditions stimulate fire ignition and spread. Biomass burning increased globally with warming periods since the last glacial era. Data confirming periglacial fires during glacial periods are very sparse because such climates are likely too cold to favour fires. Here, tree occurrence and fires during the Upper Pleistocene glacial periods in Central Canada are inferred from botanical identification and calibrated radiocarbon dates of charcoal fragments. Charcoal fragments were archived in sandy dunes of central Saskatchewan and were dated >50000-26600 cal BP. Fragments were mostly gymnosperms. Parallels between radiocarbon dates and GISP2-δ¹⁸O records deciphered relationships between fire and climate. Fires occurred either hundreds to thousands of years after Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadial warming events (i.e., the time needed to build enough fuel for fire ignition and spread) or at the onset of the DO event. The chronological uncertainties result from the dated material not precisely matching the fires and from the low residual ¹⁴C associated with old sample material. Dominance of high-pressure systems and low effective moisture during post-DO coolings likely triggered flammable periglacial ecosystems, while lower moisture and the relative abundance of fuel overshadowed lower temperatures for fire spread. Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) limits during DO events are difficult to assess in Central Canada due to sparse radiocarbon dates. Our radiocarbon data set constrains the extent of LIS. Central Saskatchewan was not covered by LIS throughout the Upper Pleistocene and was not a continental desert. Instead, our results suggest long-lasting periods where fluctuations of the northern tree limits and fires after interstadials occurred persistently. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mesoscale variability of the Upper Colorado River snowpack

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ling, C.-H.; Josberger, E.G.; Thorndike, A.S.

1996-01-01

In the mountainous regions of the Upper Colorado River Basin, snow course observations give local measurements of snow water equivalent, which can be used to estimate regional averages of snow conditions. We develop a statistical technique to estimate the mesoscale average snow accumulation, using 8 years of snow course observations. For each of three major snow accumulation regions in the Upper Colorado River Basin - the Colorado Rocky Mountains, Colorado, the Uinta Mountains, Utah, and the Wind River Range, Wyoming - the snow course observations yield a correlation length scale of 38 km, 46 km, and 116 km respectively. This is the scale for which the snow course data at different sites are correlated with 70 per cent correlation. This correlation of snow accumulation over large distances allows for the estimation of the snow water equivalent on a mesoscale basis. With the snow course data binned into 1/4?? latitude by 1/4?? longitude pixels, an error analysis shows the following: for no snow course data in a given pixel, the uncertainty in the water equivalent estimate reaches 50 cm; that is, the climatological variability. However, as the number of snow courses in a pixel increases the uncertainty decreases, and approaches 5-10 cm when there are five snow courses in a pixel.

Evidence for B{sup 0}{yields}{rho}{sup 0}{rho}{sup 0} Decays and Implications for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa Angle {alpha}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aubert, B.; Bona, M.; Boutigny, D.

2007-03-16

We search for the decays B{sup 0}{yields}{rho}{sup 0}{rho}{sup 0}, B{sup 0}{yields}{rho}{sup 0}f{sub 0}(980), and B{sup 0}{yields}f{sub 0}(980)f{sub 0}(980) in a sample of about 384x10{sup 6} {upsilon}(4S){yields}BB decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e{sup +}e{sup -} collider at Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. We find evidence for B{sup 0}{yields}{rho}{sup 0}{rho}{sup 0} with 3.5{sigma} significance and measure the branching fraction B=(1.07{+-}0.33{+-}0.19)x10{sup -6} and longitudinal polarization fraction f{sub L}=0.87{+-}0.13{+-}0.04, where the first uncertainty is statistical, and the second is systematic. The uncertainty on the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa quark-mixing matrix unitarity angle {alpha} due to penguin contributions in B{yields}{rho}{rho} decays is 18 deg.more » at the 1{sigma} level. We also set upper limits on the B{sup 0}{yields}{rho}{sup 0}f{sub 0}(980) and B{sup 0}{yields}f{sub 0}(980)f{sub 0}(980) decay rates.« less

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

A method for paraplegic upper-body posture estimation during standing: a pilot study for rehabilitation purposes.

PubMed

Pages, Gaël; Ramdani, Nacim; Fraisse, Philippe; Guiraud, David

2009-06-01

This paper presents a contribution for restoring standing in paraplegia while using functional electrical stimulation (FES). Movement generation induced by FES remains mostly open looped and stimulus intensities are tuned empirically. To design an efficient closed-loop control, a preliminary study has been carried out to investigate the relationship between body posture and voluntary upper body movements. A methodology is proposed to estimate body posture in the sagittal plane using force measurements exerted on supporting handles during standing. This is done by setting up constraints related to the geometric equations of a two-dimensional closed chain model and the hand-handle interactions. All measured quantities are subject to an uncertainty assumed unknown but bounded. The set membership estimation problem is solved via interval analysis. Guaranteed uncertainty bounds are computed for the estimated postures. In order to test the feasibility of our methodology, experiments were carried out with complete spinal cord injured patients.

Assessment and Verification of SLS Block 1-B Exploration Upper Stage and Stage Disposal Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patrick, Sean; Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan J.

2018-01-01

Delta-v allocation to correct for insertion errors caused by state uncertainty is one of the key performance requirements imposed on the SLS Navigation System. Additionally, SLS mission requirements include the need for the Exploration Up-per Stage (EUS) to be disposed of successfully. To assess these requirements, the SLS navigation team has developed and implemented a series of analysis methods. Here the authors detail the Delta-Delta-V approach to assessing delta-v allocation as well as the EUS disposal optimization approach.

42 CFR 447.516 - Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services. 447.516 Section 447.516 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS PAYMENTS FOR SERVICES Payment for Drugs § 447.516 Upper limits for drugs furnished as...

42 CFR 447.516 - Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services. 447.516 Section 447.516 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS PAYMENTS FOR SERVICES Payment for Drugs § 447.516 Upper limits for drugs furnished as...

42 CFR 447.516 - Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services. 447.516 Section 447.516 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS PAYMENTS FOR SERVICES Payment for Drugs § 447.516 Upper limits for drugs furnished as...

42 CFR 447.516 - Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services. 447.516 Section 447.516 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS PAYMENTS FOR SERVICES Payment for Drugs § 447.516 Upper limits for drugs furnished as...

42 CFR 447.516 - Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Upper limits for drugs furnished as part of services. 447.516 Section 447.516 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS PAYMENTS FOR SERVICES Payment for Drugs § 447.516 Upper limits for drugs furnished as...

29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Compliance Assistance Guidelines for Confined and Enclosed Spaces and Other Dangerous Atmospheres

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... interchangeably in fire science literature. Section 1915.11(b)Definition of “Upper explosive limit.” The terms upper flammable limit (UFL) and upper explosive limit (UEL) are used interchangeably in fire science... life and is adequate for entry. However, any oxygen level greater than 20.8 percent by volume should...

29 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Compliance Assistance Guidelines for Confined and Enclosed Spaces and Other Dangerous Atmospheres

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... interchangeably in fire science literature. Section 1915.11(b)Definition of “Upper explosive limit.” The terms upper flammable limit (UFL) and upper explosive limit (UEL) are used interchangeably in fire science... life and is adequate for entry. However, any oxygen level greater than 20.8 percent by volume should...

Distribution of uncertainties at the municipality level for flood risk modelling along the river Meuse: implications for policy-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirotton, Michel; Stilmant, Frédéric; Erpicum, Sébastien; Dewals, Benjamin; Archambeau, Pierre

2016-04-01

Flood risk modelling has been conducted for the whole course of the river Meuse in Belgium. Major cities, such as Liege (200,000 inh.) and Namur (110,000 inh.), are located in the floodplains of river Meuse. Particular attention has been paid to uncertainty analysis and its implications for decision-making. The modelling chain contains flood frequency analysis, detailed 2D hydraulic computations, damage modelling and risk calculation. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty to the overall results uncertainty has been estimated by considering several alternate options for each step of the analysis: different distributions were considered in the flood frequency analysis; the influence of modelling assumptions and boundary conditions (e.g., steady vs. unsteady) were taken into account for the hydraulic computation; two different landuse classifications and two sets of damage functions were used; the number of exceedance probabilities involved in the risk calculation (by integration of the risk-curves) was varied. In addition, the sensitivity of the results with respect to increases in flood discharges was assessed. The considered increases are consistent with a "wet" climate change scenario for the time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Detrembleur et al., 2015). The results of hazard computation differ significantly between the upper and lower parts of the course of river Meuse in Belgium. In the former, inundation extents grow gradually as the considered flood discharge is increased (i.e. the exceedance probability is reduced), while in the downstream part, protection structures (mainly concrete walls) prevent inundation for flood discharges corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 0.01 and above (in the present climate). For higher discharges, large inundation extents are obtained in the floodplains. The highest values of risk (mean annual damage) are obtained in the municipalities which undergo relatively frequent flooding (upper part of the river), as well as in those of the downstream part of the Meuse in which flow depths in the urbanized floodplains are particularly high when inundation occurs. This is the case of the city of Liege, as a result of a subsidence process following former mining activities. For a given climate scenario, the uncertainty ranges affecting flood risk estimates are significant; but not so much that the results for the different municipalities would overlap substantially. Therefore, these uncertainties do not hamper prioritization in terms of allocation of risk reduction measures at the municipality level. In the present climate, the uncertainties arising from flood frequency analysis have a negligible influence in the upper part of the river, while they have a considerable impact on risk modelling in the lower part, where a threshold effect was observed due to the flood protection structures (sudden transition from no inundation to massive flooding when a threshold discharge is exceeded). Varying the number of exceedance probabilities in the integration of the risk curve has different effects for different municipalities; but it does not change the ranking of the municipalities in terms of flood risk. For the other scenarios, damage estimation contributes most to the overall uncertainties. As shown by this study, the magnitude of the uncertainty and its main origin vary in space and in time. This emphasizes the paramount importance of conducting distributed uncertainty analyses. In the considered study area, prioritization of risk reduction means can be reliably performed despite the modelling uncertainties. Reference Detrembleur, S., Stilmant, F., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., & Pirotton, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards, 77(3), 1533-1549. Acknowledgement Part of this research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. It was also supported by the NWE Interreg IVB Program.

Portrait of a Geothermal Spring, Hunter's Hot Springs, Oregon.

PubMed

Castenholz, Richard W

2015-01-27

Although alkaline Hunter's Hot Springs in southeastern Oregon has been studied extensively for over 40 years, most of these studies and the subsequent publications were before the advent of molecular methods. However, there are many field observations and laboratory experiments that reveal the major aspects of the phototrophic species composition within various physical and chemical gradients of these springs. Relatively constant temperature boundaries demark the upper boundary of the unicellular cyanobacterium, Synechococcus at 73-74 °C (the world-wide upper limit for photosynthesis), and 68-70 °C the upper limit for Chloroflexus. The upper limit for the cover of the filamentous cyanobacterium, Geitlerinema (Oscillatoria) is at 54-55 °C, and the in situ lower limit at 47-48 °C for all three of these phototrophs due to the upper temperature limit for the grazing ostracod, Thermopsis. The in situ upper limit for the cyanobacteria Pleurocapsa and Calothrix is at ~47-48 °C, which are more grazer-resistant and grazer dependent. All of these demarcations are easily visible in the field. In addition, there is a biosulfide production in some sections of the springs that have a large impact on the microbiology. Most of the temperature and chemical limits have been explained by field and laboratory experiments.

Portrait of a Geothermal Spring, Hunter’s Hot Springs, Oregon

PubMed Central

Castenholz, Richard W.

2015-01-01

Although alkaline Hunter’s Hot Springs in southeastern Oregon has been studied extensively for over 40 years, most of these studies and the subsequent publications were before the advent of molecular methods. However, there are many field observations and laboratory experiments that reveal the major aspects of the phototrophic species composition within various physical and chemical gradients of these springs. Relatively constant temperature boundaries demark the upper boundary of the unicellular cyanobacterium, Synechococcus at 73–74 °C (the world-wide upper limit for photosynthesis), and 68–70 °C the upper limit for Chloroflexus. The upper limit for the cover of the filamentous cyanobacterium, Geitlerinema (Oscillatoria) is at 54–55 °C, and the in situ lower limit at 47–48 °C for all three of these phototrophs due to the upper temperature limit for the grazing ostracod, Thermopsis. The in situ upper limit for the cyanobacteria Pleurocapsa and Calothrix is at ~47–48 °C, which are more grazer-resistant and grazer dependent. All of these demarcations are easily visible in the field. In addition, there is a biosulfide production in some sections of the springs that have a large impact on the microbiology. Most of the temperature and chemical limits have been explained by field and laboratory experiments. PMID:25633225

Spacecraft Collision Avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussy-Virat, Charles

The rapid increase of the number of objects in orbit around the Earth poses a serious threat to operational spacecraft and astronauts. In order to effectively avoid collisions, mission operators need to assess the risk of collision between the satellite and any other object whose orbit is likely to approach its trajectory. Several algorithms predict the probability of collision but have limitations that impair the accuracy of the prediction. An important limitation is that uncertainties in the atmospheric density are usually not taken into account in the propagation of the covariance matrix from current epoch to closest approach time. The Spacecraft Orbital Characterization Kit (SpOCK) was developed to accurately predict the positions and velocities of spacecraft. The central capability of SpOCK is a high accuracy numerical propagator of spacecraft orbits and computations of ancillary parameters. The numerical integration uses a comprehensive modeling of the dynamics of spacecraft in orbit that includes all the perturbing forces that a spacecraft is subject to in orbit. In particular, the atmospheric density is modeled by thermospheric models to allow for an accurate representation of the atmospheric drag. SpOCK predicts the probability of collision between two orbiting objects taking into account the uncertainties in the atmospheric density. Monte Carlo procedures are used to perturb the initial position and velocity of the primary and secondary spacecraft from their covariance matrices. Developed in C, SpOCK supports parallelism to quickly assess the risk of collision so it can be used operationally in real time. The upper atmosphere of the Earth is strongly driven by the solar activity. In particular, abrupt transitions from slow to fast solar wind cause important disturbances of the atmospheric density, hence of the drag acceleration that spacecraft are subject to. The Probability Distribution Function (PDF) model was developed to predict the solar wind speed five days in advance. In particular, the PDF model is able to predict rapid enhancements in the solar wind speed. It was found that 60% of the positive predictions were correct, while 91% of the negative predictions were correct, and 20% to 33% of the peaks in the speed were found by the model. En-semble forecasts provide the forecasters with an estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction, which can be used to derive uncertainties in the atmospheric density and in the drag acceleration. The dissertation then demonstrates that uncertainties in the atmospheric density result in large uncertainties in the prediction of the probability of collision. As an example, the effects of a geomagnetic storm on the probability of collision are illustrated. The research aims at providing tools and analyses that help understand and predict the effects of uncertainties in the atmospheric density on the probability of collision. The ultimate motivation is to support mission operators in making the correct decision with regard to a potential collision avoidance maneuver by providing an uncertainty on the prediction of the probability of collision instead of a single value. This approach can help avoid performing unnecessary costly maneuvers, while making sure that the risk of collision is fully evaluated.

RESTSIM: A Simulation Model That Highlights Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinkhan, George M.; Taylor, James R.

1983-01-01

Describes RESTSIM, an interactive computer simulation program for graduate and upper-level undergraduate management, marketing, and retailing courses, which introduces naive users to simulation as a decision support technique, and provides a vehicle for studying various statistical procedures for evaluating simulation output. (MBR)

Controls on the barium isotope compositions of marine sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridgestock, Luke; Hsieh, Yu-Te; Porcelli, Donald; Homoky, William B.; Bryan, Allison; Henderson, Gideon M.

2018-01-01

The accumulation of barium (Ba) in marine sediments is considered to be a robust proxy for export production, although this application can be limited by uncertainty in BaSO4 preservation and sediment mass accumulation rates. The Ba isotope compositions of marine sediments could potentially record insights into past changes in the marine Ba cycle, which should be insensitive to these limitations, enabling more robust interpretation of sedimentary Ba as a proxy. To investigate the controls on the Ba isotope compositions of marine sediments and their potential for paleo-oceanographic applications, we present the first Ba isotope compositions results for sediments, as well as overlying seawater depth profiles collected in the South Atlantic. Variations in Ba isotope compositions of the sediments predominantly reflect changes in the relative contributions of detrital and authigenic Ba sources, with open-ocean sediments constraining the isotope composition of authigenic Ba to be δ 138/134Ba ≈ + 0.1 ‰. This value is consistent with the average isotope composition inferred for sinking particulate Ba using simple mass balance models of Ba in the overlying water column and is hypothesized to reflect the removal of Ba from the upper water column with an associated isotopic fractionation of Δ diss-part 138/134Ba ≈ + 0.4 to +0.5. Perturbations to upper ocean Ba cycling, due to changes in export production and the supply of Ba via upwelling, should therefore be recorded by the isotope compositions of sedimentary authigenic Ba. Such insights will help to improve the reliable application of Ba accumulation rates in marine sediments as a proxy for past changes in export production.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, D.; Alekou, A.; Apollonio, M.

Here, the international Muon Ionization Cooling Experiment (MICE) will perform a systematic investigation of ionization cooling with muon beams of momentum between 140 and 240\\,MeV/c at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory ISIS facility. The measurement of ionization cooling in MICE relies on the selection of a pure sample of muons that traverse the experiment. To make this selection, the MICE Muon Beam is designed to deliver a beam of muons with less thanmore » $$\\sim$$1% contamination. To make the final muon selection, MICE employs a particle-identification (PID) system upstream and downstream of the cooling cell. The PID system includes time-of-flight hodoscopes, threshold-Cherenkov counters and calorimetry. The upper limit for the pion contamination measured in this paper is $$f_\\pi < 1.4\\%$$ at 90% C.L., including systematic uncertainties. Therefore, the MICE Muon Beam is able to meet the stringent pion-contamination requirements of the study of ionization cooling.« less

Robust H(∞) positional control of 2-DOF robotic arm driven by electro-hydraulic servo system.

PubMed

Guo, Qing; Yu, Tian; Jiang, Dan

2015-11-01

In this paper an H∞ positional feedback controller is developed to improve the robust performance under structural and parametric uncertainty disturbance in electro-hydraulic servo system (EHSS). The robust control model is described as the linear state-space equation by upper linear fractional transformation. According to the solution of H∞ sub-optimal control problem, the robust controller is designed and simplified to lower order linear model which is easily realized in EHSS. The simulation and experimental results can validate the robustness of this proposed method. The comparison result with PI control shows that the robust controller is suitable for this EHSS under the critical condition where the desired system bandwidth is higher and the external load of the hydraulic actuator is closed to its limited capability. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal γ Decay and the Superallowed Branching Ratio for the β+ Emitter Km38

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, K. G.; Svensson, C. E.; Ball, G. C.; Leslie, J. R.; Austin, R. A. E.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Barton, C.; Bassiachvilli, E.; Ettenauer, S.; Finlay, P.; Garrett, P. E.; Grinyer, G. F.; Hackman, G.; Melconian, D.; Morton, A. C.; Mythili, S.; Newman, O.; Pearson, C. J.; Pearson, M. R.; Phillips, A. A.; Savajols, H.; Schumaker, M. A.; Wong, J.

2008-05-01

The branching ratio for the superallowed β+ decay of Km38 was measured at TRIUMF’s ISAC radioactive ion beam facility. The M3 internal transition between the isomer and the ground state of Km38 was observed with a branching ratio of 330(43) ppm. A search for the nonanalogue β-decay branch to the first excited 0+ state in Ar38 was also performed and yielded an upper limit of ≤12ppm at 90% C.L. These measurements lead to a revised superallowed branching ratio for Km38 of 99.967(4)%, and increase the Km38 ft value by its entire quoted uncertainty to ft=3052.1(10)s. Implications for tests of the nuclear-structure dependent corrections in superallowed β decays and the extraction of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element Vud are discussed.

Charmonium Decays of Y(4260), psi(4160), and psi(4040).

PubMed

Coan, T E; Gao, Y S; Liu, F; Artuso, M; Blusk, S; Butt, J; Li, J; Menaa, N; Mountain, R; Nisar, S; Randrianarivony, K; Redjimi, R; Sia, R; Skwarnicki, T; Stone, S; Wang, J C; Zhang, K; Csorna, S E; Bonvicini, G; Cinabro, D; Dubrovin, M; Lincoln, A; Asner, D M; Edwards, K W; Briere, R A; Brock, I; Chen, J; Ferguson, T; Tatishvili, G; Vogel, H; Watkins, M E; Rosner, J L; Adam, N E; Alexander, J P; Berkelman, K; Cassel, D G; Duboscq, J E; Ecklund, K M; Ehrlich, R; Fields, L; Galik, R S; Gibbons, L; Gray, R; Gray, S W; Hartill, D L; Heltsley, B K; Hertz, D; Jones, C D; Kandaswamy, J; Kreinick, D L; Kuznetsov, V E; Mahlke-Krüger, H; Meyer, T O; Onyisi, P U E; Patterson, J R; Peterson, D; Phillips, E A; Pivarski, J; Riley, D; Ryd, A; Sadoff, A J; Schwarthoff, H; Shi, X; Stroiney, S; Sun, W M; Wilksen, T; Weinberger, M; Athar, S B; Avery, P; Breva-Newell, L; Patel, R; Potlia, V; Stoeck, H; Yelton, J; Rubin, P; Cawlfield, C; Eisenstein, B I; Karliner, I; Kim, D; Lowrey, N; Naik, P; Sedlack, C; Selen, M; White, E J; Wiss, J; Shepherd, M R; Besson, D; Pedlar, T K; Cronin-Hennessy, D; Gao, K Y; Gong, D T; Hietala, J; Kubota, Y; Klein, T; Lang, B W; Poling, R; Scott, A W; Smith, A; Dobbs, S; Metreveli, Z; Seth, K K; Tomaradze, A; Zweber, P; Ernst, J; Severini, H; Dytman, S A; Love, W; Savinov, V; Aquines, O; Li, Z; Lopez, A; Mehrabyan, S; Mendez, H; Ramirez, J; Huang, G S; Miller, D H; Pavlunin, V; Sanghi, B; Shipsey, I P J; Xin, B; Adams, G S; Anderson, M; Cummings, J P; Danko, I; Napolitano, J; He, Q; Insler, J; Muramatsu, H; Park, C S; Thorndike, E H

2006-04-28

Using data collected with the CLEO detector operating at the CESR e+e- collider at sqrt[s]=3.97-4.26 GeV, we investigate 15 charmonium decay modes of the psi(4040), psi(4160), and Y(4260) resonances. We confirm, at 11 sigma significance, the BABAR Y(4260)-->pi+pi- J/psi discovery, make the first observation of Y(4260)--> pi(0)pi(0) J/psi (5.1 sigma), and find the first evidence for Y(4260)-->K+K- J/psi(3.7 sigma). We measure e+e- cross sections at sqrt[s]=4.26 GeV as sigma(pi+pi- J/psi)=58(+12)(-10)+/-4 pb, sigma(pi(0)pi(0) J/psi)=23(+12)(-8)+/-1 pb, and sigma(K+K- J/psi)=9(+9)(-5)+/-1 pb, in which the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. Upper limits are placed on other decay rates from all three resonances.

Ionized magnesium in the planetary nebula NGC 7027

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, N. J., II; Natta, A.; Russell, R. W.; Wyant, J.; Beckwith, S.

1984-01-01

Observations of NGC 7027 are presented for six ionic lines: Mg(+3) (4.48 microns), Mg(+4) (5.61 microns), H(0) (4.05 and 7.46 microns), Ne(+5) (7.64 microns), and Ar(+5) (4.53 microns). The magnesium lines are consistent with the measurements of Russell, Soifer, and Willner (1977), and the hydrogen lines are consistent with the line strengths predicted from the radio flux. Upper limits were obtained for the neon and argon lines. The abundance of magnesium in the central part of the nebula is highly uncertain because the fine-structure collision strengths are poorly known. The strong gradient of magnesium abundance from the inner to the outer portions of the nebula derived by Pequignot and Stasinska (1980) could be an artifact of this uncertainty. A brief analysis of the effective stellar temperature derived from the magnesium line ratios is given.

Epithelioid hemangioendothelioma of the spine. Report of two cases.

PubMed

Aquilina, Kristian; Lim, Christopher; Kamel, Mahmoud Hamdy; Marks, Charles J; O'Sullivan, Michael G; Keohane, Catherine

2005-11-01

Epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (EH) is a rare tumor of vascular origin. The authors describe two cases of spinal EH, one involving the T-10 vertebra and the second involving the upper cervical spine. In the first case the patient underwent resection of the tumor; this case represents the longest reported follow-up period for spinal EH. In the second case, extensive involvement of C-2, C-3, and C-4 as well as encasement of both vertebral arteries precluded safe tumor resection, and posterior occipitocervical stabilization was performed. The patient subsequently died of metastatic disease. The findings in these two cases underscore the difficulty in predicting the clinical behavior of spinal EH based solely on histological and clinical features as well as the uncertainty of the roles of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy in the oncological management of a spinal tumor for which clinical data are very limited.

Pion contamination in the MICE muon beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, D.; Alekou, A.; Apollonio, M.; Asfandiyarov, R.; Barber, G.; Barclay, P.; de Bari, A.; Bayes, R.; Bayliss, V.; Bertoni, R.; Blackmore, V. J.; Blondel, A.; Blot, S.; Bogomilov, M.; Bonesini, M.; Booth, C. N.; Bowring, D.; Boyd, S.; Brashaw, T. W.; Bravar, U.; Bross, A. D.; Capponi, M.; Carlisle, T.; Cecchet, G.; Charnley, C.; Chignoli, F.; Cline, D.; Cobb, J. H.; Colling, G.; Collomb, N.; Coney, L.; Cooke, P.; Courthold, M.; Cremaldi, L. M.; DeMello, A.; Dick, A.; Dobbs, A.; Dornan, P.; Drews, M.; Drielsma, F.; Filthaut, F.; Fitzpatrick, T.; Franchini, P.; Francis, V.; Fry, L.; Gallagher, A.; Gamet, R.; Gardener, R.; Gourlay, S.; Grant, A.; Greis, J. R.; Griffiths, S.; Hanlet, P.; Hansen, O. M.; Hanson, G. G.; Hart, T. L.; Hartnett, T.; Hayler, T.; Heidt, C.; Hills, M.; Hodgson, P.; Hunt, C.; Iaciofano, A.; Ishimoto, S.; Kafka, G.; Kaplan, D. M.; Karadzhov, Y.; Kim, Y. K.; Kuno, Y.; Kyberd, P.; Lagrange, J.-B.; Langlands, J.; Lau, W.; Leonova, M.; Li, D.; Lintern, A.; Littlefield, M.; Long, K.; Luo, T.; Macwaters, C.; Martlew, B.; Martyniak, J.; Mazza, R.; Middleton, S.; Moretti, A.; Moss, A.; Muir, A.; Mullacrane, I.; Nebrensky, J. J.; Neuffer, D.; Nichols, A.; Nicholson, R.; Nugent, J. C.; Oates, A.; Onel, Y.; Orestano, D.; Overton, E.; Owens, P.; Palladino, V.; Pasternak, J.; Pastore, F.; Pidcott, C.; Popovic, M.; Preece, R.; Prestemon, S.; Rajaram, D.; Ramberger, S.; Rayner, M. A.; Ricciardi, S.; Roberts, T. J.; Robinson, M.; Rogers, C.; Ronald, K.; Rubinov, P.; Rucinski, P.; Sakamato, H.; Sanders, D. A.; Santos, E.; Savidge, T.; Smith, P. J.; Snopok, P.; Soler, F. J. P.; Speirs, D.; Stanley, T.; Stokes, G.; Summers, D. J.; Tarrant, J.; Taylor, I.; Tortora, L.; Torun, Y.; Tsenov, R.; Tunnell, C. D.; Uchida, M. A.; Vankova-Kirilova, G.; Virostek, S.; Vretenar, M.; Warburton, P.; Watson, S.; White, C.; Whyte, C. G.; Wilson, A.; Winter, M.; Yang, X.; Young, A.; Zisman, M.

2016-03-01

The international Muon Ionization Cooling Experiment (MICE) will perform a systematic investigation of ionization cooling with muon beams of momentum between 140 and 240 MeV/c at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory ISIS facility. The measurement of ionization cooling in MICE relies on the selection of a pure sample of muons that traverse the experiment. To make this selection, the MICE Muon Beam is designed to deliver a beam of muons with less than ~1% contamination. To make the final muon selection, MICE employs a particle-identification (PID) system upstream and downstream of the cooling cell. The PID system includes time-of-flight hodoscopes, threshold-Cherenkov counters and calorimetry. The upper limit for the pion contamination measured in this paper is fπ < 1.4% at 90% C.L., including systematic uncertainties. Therefore, the MICE Muon Beam is able to meet the stringent pion-contamination requirements of the study of ionization cooling.

Pion contamination in the MICE muon beam

DOE PAGES

Adams, D.; Alekou, A.; Apollonio, M.; ...

2016-03-01

Here, the international Muon Ionization Cooling Experiment (MICE) will perform a systematic investigation of ionization cooling with muon beams of momentum between 140 and 240\\,MeV/c at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory ISIS facility. The measurement of ionization cooling in MICE relies on the selection of a pure sample of muons that traverse the experiment. To make this selection, the MICE Muon Beam is designed to deliver a beam of muons with less thanmore » $$\\sim$$1% contamination. To make the final muon selection, MICE employs a particle-identification (PID) system upstream and downstream of the cooling cell. The PID system includes time-of-flight hodoscopes, threshold-Cherenkov counters and calorimetry. The upper limit for the pion contamination measured in this paper is $$f_\\pi < 1.4\\%$$ at 90% C.L., including systematic uncertainties. Therefore, the MICE Muon Beam is able to meet the stringent pion-contamination requirements of the study of ionization cooling.« less

Non-coincident Inter-instrument Comparisons of Ozone Measurements Using Quasi-conservative Coordinates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lait, L. R.; Newman, P. A.; Schoeberl, M. R.; McGee, T.; Twigg, T.; Browell, E.; Bevilacqua, R.; Andersen, S. B.; DeBacker, H.; Benesova, A.

2004-01-01

Ozone measurements from ozonesondes, AROTAL, DIAL, and POAM III instruments during the SOLVE-2/VINTERSOL period are composited in a time-varying, flow-following quasi-conservative (PV-6) coordinate space; the resulting composites from each instrument are mapped onto the other instruments locations and times. The mapped data are then used to intercompare data from the different instruments. Overall, the four data sets are found to be in good agreement. AROTAL shows somewhat lower values below 16 km, and DIAL has a positive bias at the upper limits of its altitude range. These intercomparisons are consistent with those obtained from more conventional near-coincident profiles, where available. Although the PV-theta mapping technique entails larger uncertainties of individual profile differences compared to direct near-coincident comparisons, the ability to include much larger numbers of comparisons can make this technique advantageous.

In situ stratospheric measurements of HNO3 and HCl near 30 km using the balloon-borne laser in situ sensor tunable diode laser spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

May, R. D.; Webster, C. R.

1989-01-01

In situ stratospheric measurements of the concentrations of the reservoir species HNO3 and HCl made during two flights of the high-resolution (0.0005/cm) balloon-borne laser in situ sensor instrument from Palestine, Texas, are reported. A measured HNO3 volume mixing ratio of 4.3 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at 31 km altitude is about 1 ppbv larger than previously reported measurements at 32 deg N. An HCl mixing ratio of 1.6 ppbv at 29 km is in agreement with values obtained from earlier remote sensing techniques within the experimental uncertainties. Upper limits at 31 km of 0.4 ppbv for H2O2 and 0.2 ppbv for HOCl are also derived from analyses of spectra recorded near 1252/cm.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

A methodology for reduced order modeling and calibration of the upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Piyush M.; Linares, Richard

2017-10-01

Atmospheric drag is the largest source of uncertainty in accurately predicting the orbit of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurately predicting drag for objects that traverse LEO is critical to space situational awareness. Atmospheric models used for orbital drag calculations can be characterized either as empirical or physics-based (first principles based). Empirical models are fast to evaluate but offer limited real-time predictive/forecasting ability, while physics based models offer greater predictive/forecasting ability but require dedicated parallel computational resources. Also, calibration with accurate data is required for either type of models. This paper presents a new methodology based on proper orthogonal decomposition toward development of a quasi-physical, predictive, reduced order model that combines the speed of empirical and the predictive/forecasting capabilities of physics-based models. The methodology is developed to reduce the high dimensionality of physics-based models while maintaining its capabilities. We develop the methodology using the Naval Research Lab's Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter model and show that the diurnal and seasonal variations can be captured using a small number of modes and parameters. We also present calibration of the reduced order model using the CHAMP and GRACE accelerometer-derived densities. Results show that the method performs well for modeling and calibration of the upper atmosphere.

Retrievals of abundances of hydrocarbon and nitrile species in Titan’s upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yung, Yuk; Fan, Siteng; Shemansky, D. E.; Li, Cheng; Gao, Peter

2017-10-01

We develop an innovative retrieval method for Titan occultation measurements by the Cassini UVIS experiment. The T35 occultation is analyzed to illustrate the methodology. A significant number of occultations observed using the UVIS spectrographs show loss of pointing control required for correction of the spectral vectors. Consequently, only three stellar occultations have been analyzed to date. We use the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method to retrieve the abundances or upper limits of thirteen hydrocarbon and nitrile species (N2, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, HCN, C4H2, C6N2, C6H6, tholin, HC3N, C2N2, NH3) along with the pointing error using the Cassini/UVIS simulator. These numbers are derived for the fast T35 occultation, which has never been analyzed because of large pointing errors. Uncertainty in the retrievals is determined using an intrinsic fitting probability distribution function. The Caltech/JPL photochemical and kinetics model, KINETICS, is used to calculate the atmospheric aforementioned species. Comparisons between model and observations reveal gaps in our current understanding of the chemical kinetics of hydrocarbons and nitrile species, especially for C6H6.

Revision and proposed modification for a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Anderson, Chauncey W.

2015-01-01

Using the extended 1991–2010 external phosphorus loading dataset, the lake TMDL model was recalibrated following the same procedures outlined in the Phase 1 review. The version of the model selected for further development incorporated an updated sediment initial condition, a numerical solution method for the chlorophyll a model, changes to light and phosphorus factors limiting algal growth, and a new pH-model regression, which removed Julian day dependence in order to avoid discontinuities in pH at year boundaries. This updated lake TMDL model was recalibrated using the extended dataset in order to compare calibration parameters to those obtained from a calibration with the original 7.5-year dataset. The resulting algal settling velocity calibrated from the extended dataset was more than twice the value calibrated with the original dataset, and, because the calibrated values of algal settling velocity and recycle rate are related (more rapid settling required more rapid recycling), the recycling rate also was larger than that determined with the original dataset. These changes in calibration parameters highlight the uncertainty in critical rates in the Upper Klamath Lake TMDL model and argue for their direct measurement in future data collection to increase confidence in the model predictions.

Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind profiles to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments incorporate wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the upper-level winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility were developed for use in upper-level wind assessments. Database development procedures as well as statistical analysis of temporal wind variability at each launch range will be presented.

Accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic models: a practical guide.

PubMed

Bilcke, Joke; Beutels, Philippe; Brisson, Marc; Jit, Mark

2011-01-01

Accounting for uncertainty is now a standard part of decision-analytic modeling and is recommended by many health technology agencies and published guidelines. However, the scope of such analyses is often limited, even though techniques have been developed for presenting the effects of methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty on model results. To help bring these techniques into mainstream use, the authors present a step-by-step guide that offers an integrated approach to account for different kinds of uncertainty in the same model, along with a checklist for assessing the way in which uncertainty has been incorporated. The guide also addresses special situations such as when a source of uncertainty is difficult to parameterize, resources are limited for an ideal exploration of uncertainty, or evidence to inform the model is not available or not reliable. for identifying the sources of uncertainty that influence results most are also described. Besides guiding analysts, the guide and checklist may be useful to decision makers who need to assess how well uncertainty has been accounted for in a decision-analytic model before using the results to make a decision.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Effect of uncertainty in Digital Surface Models on the boundary of inundated areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalbantis, I.; Papageorgaki, I.; Sioras, P.; Ioannidis, Ch.

2012-04-01

The planning, design and operation of flood damage reduction works or non-structural measures require the construction of maps that indicate zones to be potentially inundated during floods. Referring to floods due to heavy rainfall, the common procedure for flood mapping consists of the following five computational steps: (1) Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall; (2) construction of design hyetographs for various return periods; (3) construction of the related direct runoff hydrographs; (4) routing of these hydrographs through the hydrographic network; (5) mapping of the inundated area that corresponds to the temporally maximum depth for each location in the flood plain. Steps 3 through 5 require the use of spatial information which can be easily obtained from a Digital Surface Model (DSM). The DSM contains grid-based elevations of the ground or overlying objects that influence the propagation of flood waves. In this work, the SCS-CN method is used in step 3 in combination with a synthetic Unit Hydrograph based on the SCS dimensionless Unit Hydrograph. In step 4, the full one-dimensional Saint Venant equations for non-uniform unsteady flow on fixed bed are used, which are numerically solved. The impact of uncertainty in the DSM on the inundated area boundary is investigated. For this the Monte Carlo simulation method is employed to produce a large number of erroneous DSMs through introducing errors in elevation with a standard deviation equal to σ. These DSMs are then used for delineating potentially flooded areas. The standard deviation of the distance (from the riverbed axis) of the boundary of these areas, herein denoted as σF, is used as the measure of the resulting uncertainty. The link between σ and σF is examined for a spectrum of large return periods (100 to 10000). A computer experiment was set up based on data from two drainage basins. The first basin is located in East Attica and is drained by a branch of the Erasinos Torrent named the South-East Kalyvia Torrent; it extends over an area of about 17 square kilometres. The second basin is that of the Kerynitis River in north-western Peloponnesus; it covers an area of 89 square kilometres. In each one of the two basins hydrographs at the outlet of the upper part of the basin are estimated with the aid of hydrological modelling, while, for the lower part hydraulic routing is employed. The South-East Kalyvia basin is hilly, whereas the Kerynitis Basin shows high ground slopes in its upper part and low slopes in the lower part. Graphs of σ vs. σF and maps showing the mean position μF of the boundary of flooded area along with limits of this boundary that reflect positions μF±2σF help visualize the impact of the uncertainty in DSM. To acquire a better feeling of the effect of DSM uncertainty, results are compared to those obtained from uncertain rainfall depths of the design hyetographs.

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.

2012-01-01

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974

All-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the O1 LIGO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bawaj, M.; Bazzan, M.; Bécsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciecielag, P.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, E.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Canton, T. Dal; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Deelman, E.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorosh, O.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Duncan, J.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z. B.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gabel, M.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, S.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, W.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, H. W.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Liu, W.; Lo, R. K. L.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña Hernandez, I.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mayani, R.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pisarski, A.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Rynge, M.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shao, L.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tao, D.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trembath-Reichert, S.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahi, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.-F.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, K. W. K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.-H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2017-09-01

We report on an all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency band 20-475 Hz and with a frequency time derivative in the range of [-1.0 ,+0.1 ] ×10-8 Hz /s . Such a signal could be produced by a nearby spinning and slightly nonaxisymmetric isolated neutron star in our galaxy. This search uses the data from Advanced LIGO's first observational run, O1. No periodic gravitational wave signals were observed, and upper limits were placed on their strengths. The lowest upper limits on worst-case (linearly polarized) strain amplitude h0 are ˜4 ×10-25 near 170 Hz. For a circularly polarized source (most favorable orientation), the smallest upper limits obtained are ˜1.5 ×10-25. These upper limits refer to all sky locations and the entire range of frequency derivative values. For a population-averaged ensemble of sky locations and stellar orientations, the lowest upper limits obtained for the strain amplitude are ˜2.5 ×10-25.

Upper limits to trace constituents in Jupiter's atmosphere from an analysis of its 5 micrometer spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treffers, R. R.; Larson, H. P.; Fink, U.; Gautier, T. N.

1978-01-01

A high-resolution spectrum of Jupiter at 5 micrometers recorded at the Kuiper Airborne Observatory is used to determine upper limits to the column density of 19 molecules. The upper limits to the mixing ratios of SiH4, H2S, HCN, and simple hydrocarbons are discussed with respect to current models of Jupiter's atmosphere. These upper limits are compared to expectations based upon the solar abundance of the elements. This analysis permits upper limit measurements (SiH4), or actual detections (GeH4) of molecules with mixing ratios with hydrogen as low as 10 to the minus 9th power. In future observations at 5 micrometers the sensitivity of remote spectroscopic analyses should permit the study of constituents with mixing ratios as low as 10 to the minus 10th power, which would include the hydrides of such elements as Sn and As as well as numerous organic molecules.

Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric

2017-01-01

In this talk, I will begin by discussing the physical processes that govern the competition between heterogeneous and homogeneous ice nucleation in upper tropospheric cirrus clouds. Next, I will review the current knowledge of low-temperature ice nucleation from laboratory experiments and field measurements. I will then discuss the uncertainties and deficiencies in representations of cirrus processes in global models used to estimate the climate impacts of changes in cirrus clouds. Lastly, I will review the critical field measurements needed to advance our understanding of cirrus and their susceptibility to changes in aerosol properties.

The He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio in starburst galaxies - An objective constraint on the upper mass limit to the initial mass function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyon, Rene; Puxley, P. J.; Joseph, R. D.

1992-01-01

The use of the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio as a constraint on the massive stellar population in star-forming galaxies is developed. A theoretical relationship between the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio and the effective temperature of the exciting star in H II regions is derived. The effects of collisional excitation and dust within the nebula on the ratio are also considered. It is shown that the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio is a steep function of the effective temperature, a property which can be used to determine the upper mass limit of the initial mass function (IMF) in galaxies. This technique is reliable for upper mass limits less than about 40 solar masses. New near-infrared spectra of starburst galaxies are presented. The He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratios observed imply a range of upper mass limits from 27 to over 40 solar masses. There is also evidence that the upper mass limit is spatially dependent within a given galaxy. These results suggest that the upper mass limit is not a uniquely defined parameter of the IMF and probably varies with local physical conditions.

Oxygen dependence of upper thermal limits in fishes.

PubMed

Ern, Rasmus; Norin, Tommy; Gamperl, A Kurt; Esbaugh, Andrew J

2016-11-01

Temperature-induced limitations on the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to transport oxygen from the environment to the tissues, manifested as a reduced aerobic scope (maximum minus standard metabolic rate), have been proposed as the principal determinant of the upper thermal limits of fishes and other water-breathing ectotherms. Consequently, the upper thermal niche boundaries of these animals are expected to be highly sensitive to aquatic hypoxia and other environmental stressors that constrain their cardiorespiratory performance. However, the generality of this dogma has recently been questioned, as some species have been shown to maintain aerobic scope at thermal extremes. Here, we experimentally tested whether reduced oxygen availability due to aquatic hypoxia would decrease the upper thermal limits (i.e. the critical thermal maximum, CT max ) of the estuarine red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) and the marine lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus). In both species, CT max was independent of oxygen availability over a wide range of oxygen levels despite substantial (>72%) reductions in aerobic scope. These data show that the upper thermal limits of water-breathing ectotherms are not always linked to the capacity for oxygen transport. Consequently, we propose a novel metric for classifying the oxygen dependence of thermal tolerance; the oxygen limit for thermal tolerance (P CT max ), which is the water oxygen tension (Pw O 2 ) where an organism's CT max starts to decline. We suggest that this metric can be used for assessing the oxygen sensitivity of upper thermal limits in water-breathing ectotherms, and the susceptibility of their upper thermal niche boundaries to environmental hypoxia. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Velocity variations and uncertainty from transdimensional P-wave tomography of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burdick, Scott; Lekić, Vedran

2017-05-01

High-resolution models of seismic velocity variations constructed using body-wave tomography inform the study of the origin, fate and thermochemical state of mantle domains. In order to reliably relate these variations to material properties including temperature, composition and volatile content, we must accurately retrieve both the patterns and amplitudes of variations and quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimates of each. For these reasons, we image the mantle beneath North America with P-wave traveltimes from USArray using a novel method for 3-D probabilistic body-wave tomography. The method uses a Transdimensional Hierarchical Bayesian framework with a reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm in order to generate an ensemble of possible velocity models. We analyse this ensemble solution to obtain the posterior probability distribution of velocities, thereby yielding error bars and enabling rigorous hypothesis testing. Overall, we determine that the average uncertainty (1σ) of compressional wave velocity estimates beneath North America is ∼0.25 per cent dVP/VP, increasing with proximity to complex structure and decreasing with depth. The addition of USArray data reduces the uncertainty beneath the Eastern US by over 50 per cent in the upper mantle and 25-40 per cent below the transition zone and ∼30 per cent throughout the mantle beneath the Western US. In the absence of damping and smoothing, we recover amplitudes of variations 10-80 per cent higher than a standard inversion approach. Accounting for differences in data coverage, we infer that the length scale of heterogeneity is ∼50 per cent longer at shallow depths beneath the continental platform than beneath tectonically active regions. We illustrate the model trade-off analysis for the Cascadia slab and the New Madrid Seismic Zone, where we find that smearing due to the limitations of the illumination is relatively minor.

How important is exact knowledge of preferential flowpath locations and orientations for understanding spatiotemporally integrated spring hydrologic and transport response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, W.; De Rooij, R.; Graham, W. D.

2016-12-01

The Upper Floridian Aquifer is hydrogeologically complex; limestone dissolution has led to vertical and horizontal preferential flow paths. Locations of karst conduits are unknown and conduit properties are poorly constrained. Uncertainty in effects of conduit location, size, and density, network geometry and connectivity on hydrologic and transport responses is not well quantified, leading to limited use of discrete-continuum models that incorporate conduit networks for regional-scale hydrologic regulatory models. However, conduit networks typically dominate flow and contaminant transport in karst aquifers. We evaluated sensitivity of simulated water and nitrate fluxes and flow paths to karst conduit geometry in a springshed representative of Silver Springs, Florida, using a novel calcite dissolution conduit-generation algorithm coupled with a discrete-continuum flow and transport model (DisCo). Monte Carlo simulations of conduit generation, groundwater flow, and conservative solute transport indicate that, if a first magnitude spring system conduit network developed (i.e., spring flow >2.8 m3/s), the uncertainty in hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics at the spring vent was minimally related to locational uncertainty of network elements. Across the ensemble of realizations for various distributions of conduits, first magnitude spring hydraulic pulse metrics (e.g., steady-flow, peak flow, and recession coefficients) had < 0.01 coefficient of variation (CV). Similarly, spring solute breakthrough curve moments had low CV (<0.08); peak arrival had CV=0.06, mean travel time had CV=0.05, and travel time standard deviation had CV=0.08. Nevertheless, hydraulic and solute pulse response metrics were significantly different than those predicted by an equivalent porous-media model. These findings indicate that regional-scale decision models that incorporate karst preferential flow paths within an uncertainty framework can be used to better constrain aquifer-vulnerability estimates, despite lacking information about actual conduit locations.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Applying ISO 11929:2010 Standard to detection limit calculation in least-squares based multi-nuclide gamma-ray spectrum evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanisch, G.

2017-05-01

The concepts of ISO 11929 (2010) are applied to evaluation of radionuclide activities from more complex multi-nuclide gamma-ray spectra. From net peak areas estimated by peak fitting, activities and their standard uncertainties are calculated by weighted linear least-squares method with an additional step, where uncertainties of the design matrix elements are taken into account. A numerical treatment of the standard's uncertainty function, based on ISO 11929 Annex C.5, leads to a procedure for deriving decision threshold and detection limit values. The methods shown allow resolving interferences between radionuclide activities also in case of calculating detection limits where they can improve the latter by including more than one gamma line per radionuclide. The co"mmon single nuclide weighted mean is extended to an interference-corrected (generalized) weighted mean, which, combined with the least-squares method, allows faster detection limit calculations. In addition, a new grouped uncertainty budget was inferred, which for each radionuclide gives uncertainty budgets from seven main variables, such as net count rates, peak efficiencies, gamma emission intensities and others; grouping refers to summation over lists of peaks per radionuclide.

Pluto and Charon's Visible Spectrum (3500-9000 Å)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J. C.; Wyckoff, S.

2003-05-01

Uncertainty in the chemical composition of Pluto's atmosphere severely limits our understanding of its physical properties. The only atmospheric gas identified spectroscopically to date has been CH4 (Young et al., 1997), while an upper limit has been set for CO gas (Young et al., 2001). Infrared detection of surface N2 ice (Owen et al., 1993) together with models based on occultation data (Elliot and Young, 1992) indicate that Pluto's atmosphere is probably dominated by CO and/or N2 (Yelle and Lunine, 1989; Hubbard et al., 1990; Stansberry et al., 1994). If the atmosphere is in vapor pressure equilibrium with the surface ice, then N2 gas would dominate the atmosphere with abundances ≳ 90% (Owen et al., 1993). Here we report on a search to identify atmospheric spectral features using data collected with the Steward Observatory 90'' Bok Telescope and the B & C Spectrograph. Pluto-Charon spectra were obtained on five nights in May and June 2003 using 300 l/mm grating blazed in the blue and red spectral regions. We present spectra covering the visible range from 3500 to 9000 Å : (λ /Δ λ ˜ 750 at 6000 Å), and discuss limits set on gases in the atmosphere and extended exosphere of the Pluto-Charon system. J. C. Cook would like to acknowledge support from NASA Space Grant Fellowship.

Orbital Debris Shape and Orientation Effects on Ballistic Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Steven W.; Williamsen, Joel E.

2005-01-01

The SPHC hydrodynamic code was used to evaluate the effects of orbital debris particle shape and orientation on penetration of a typical spacecraft dual-wall shield. Impacts were simulated at near-normal obliquity at 12 km/sec. Debris cloud characteristics and damage potential are compared with those from impacts by spherical projectiles. Results of these simulations indicate the uncertainties in the predicted ballistic limits due to modeling uncertainty and to uncertainty in the impactor orientation.

Beating the Spin-down Limit on Gravitational Wave Emission from the Vela Pulsar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adhikari, R.; Affeldt, C.; Allen, B.; Allen, G. S.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amariutei, D.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Arai, K.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M. C.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, D.; Barnum, S.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Basti, A.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Bell, A. S.; Belletoile, A.; Belopolski, I.; Benacquista, M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogan, C.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bouhou, B.; Boyle, M.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brummit, A.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cain, J.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Campsie, P.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chaibi, O.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Chung, S.; Clara, F.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M.; Coulon, J.-P.; Coward, D. M.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Danilishin, S. L.; Dannenberg, R.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Das, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; del Prete, M.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Dorsher, S.; Douglas, E. S. D.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, Y.; Farr, B. F.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flanigan, M.; Foley, S.; Forsi, E.; Forte, L. A.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Galimberti, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garcia, J.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gáspár, M. E.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, C.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C.; Gupta, R.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hartman, M. T.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Hayau, J.-F.; Hayler, T.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hendry, M. A.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Herrera, V.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hong, T.; Hooper, S.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J. B.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Kelner, M.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, H.; Kim, N.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Kringel, V.; Krishnamurthy, S.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lazzarini, A.; Leaci, P.; Leong, J.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Liguori, N.; Lindquist, P. E.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Luan, J.; Lubinski, M.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Macdonald, E.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marandi, A.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; Meadors, G.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merill, L.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Miyakawa, O.; Moe, B.; Moesta, P.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Nash, T.; Nawrodt, R.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishida, E.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; Oldenburg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Parameswaran, A.; Pardi, S.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pathak, D.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Penn, S.; Peralta, C.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Podkaminer, J.; Poggiani, R.; Pöld, J.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramet, C. R.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Redwine, K.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Röver, C.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Sakosky, M.; Salemi, F.; Salit, M.; Sammut, L.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Santostasi, G.; Saraf, S.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schlamminger, S.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shihan Weerathunga, T.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Soto, J.; Speirits, F. C.; Sperandio, L.; Stefszky, M.; Stein, A. J.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A. S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szokoly, G. P.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torre, O.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Tseng, K.; Turner, L.; Ugolini, D.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vaishnav, B.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A. E.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Wei, P.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, H. R.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yang, H.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yu, P.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Buchner, S.; Hotan, A.; Palfreyman, J.

2011-08-01

We present direct upper limits on continuous gravitational wave emission from the Vela pulsar using data from the Virgo detector's second science run. These upper limits have been obtained using three independent methods that assume the gravitational wave emission follows the radio timing. Two of the methods produce frequentist upper limits for an assumed known orientation of the star's spin axis and value of the wave polarization angle of, respectively, 1.9 × 10-24 and 2.2 × 10-24, with 95% confidence. The third method, under the same hypothesis, produces a Bayesian upper limit of 2.1 × 10-24, with 95% degree of belief. These limits are below the indirect spin-down limit of 3.3 × 10-24 for the Vela pulsar, defined by the energy loss rate inferred from observed decrease in Vela's spin frequency, and correspond to a limit on the star ellipticity of ~10-3. Slightly less stringent results, but still well below the spin-down limit, are obtained assuming the star's spin axis inclination and the wave polarization angles are unknown.

Uncertainties in extracted parameters of a Gaussian emission line profile with continuum background.

PubMed

Minin, Serge; Kamalabadi, Farzad

2009-12-20

We derive analytical equations for uncertainties in parameters extracted by nonlinear least-squares fitting of a Gaussian emission function with an unknown continuum background component in the presence of additive white Gaussian noise. The derivation is based on the inversion of the full curvature matrix (equivalent to Fisher information matrix) of the least-squares error, chi(2), in a four-variable fitting parameter space. The derived uncertainty formulas (equivalent to Cramer-Rao error bounds) are found to be in good agreement with the numerically computed uncertainties from a large ensemble of simulated measurements. The derived formulas can be used for estimating minimum achievable errors for a given signal-to-noise ratio and for investigating some aspects of measurement setup trade-offs and optimization. While the intended application is Fabry-Perot spectroscopy for wind and temperature measurements in the upper atmosphere, the derivation is generic and applicable to other spectroscopy problems with a Gaussian line shape.

A search for X-ray emission from a nearby pulsar - PSR 1929 + 10

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alpar, A.; Brinkmann, W.; Oegelman, H.; Kiziloglu, U.; Pines, D.

1987-01-01

Observations of the radio pulsar PSR 1929 + 10 with the Exosat observatory are reported. A 2 sigma upper limit of 0.0005 cts/s was obtained in the 0.04-2.4 keV range, which translates into a luminosity upper limit of 2 x 10 to the 29th erg/s for a power-law source with photon number index 1-3, and a luminosity upper limit of 10 to the 30th erg/s corresponding to a temperature of 190,000 K for a blackbody with radius 10 km. The implications of these upper limits for various models and their compatibility with the positive detection of this source by the Einstein Observatory are discussed.

Pretest uncertainty analysis for chemical rocket engine tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidian, Kenneth J.

1987-01-01

A parametric pretest uncertainty analysis has been performed for a chemical rocket engine test at a unique 1000:1 area ratio altitude test facility. Results from the parametric study provide the error limits required in order to maintain a maximum uncertainty of 1 percent on specific impulse. Equations used in the uncertainty analysis are presented.

Orion Entry Performance-Based Center-of-Gravity Box

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rea, Jeremy R.

2010-01-01

The Orion capsule is designed both for Low Earth Orbit missions to the ISS and for missions to the moon. For ISS class missions, the capsule will use an Apollo-style direct entry. For lunar return missions, depending on the timing of the mission, the capsule could perform a direct entry or a skip entry of up to 4800 n.mi. in order to land in the coastal waters of California. The physics of atmospheric re-entry determine the capability of the Orion vehicle. For a given vehicle mass and shape, physics tells us that the driving parameters for an entry vehicle are the hypersonic lift-to-drag ratio (L/D) and the flight path angle at entry interface (gamma(sub EI)). The design of the Orion atmospheric re-entry must meet constraints during both nominal and dispersed flight conditions on landing accuracy, heating rate, total heat load, sensed acceleration, and proper disposal of the Service Module. These constraints define an entry corridor in the space of L/D-gamma(sub EI); if the vehicle falls within this corridor, then all constraints are met. The gamma(sub EI) dimension of the corridor can be further constrained by the gloads experienced during emergency entries. Thus, the entry performance for the Orion vehicle can be described completely by the L/D. Bounds on the hypersonic L/D necessary to achieve all the mission requirements can be defined for the given entry corridor. Landing accuracy performance drives the lower limit on L/D. In order to achieve the desired landing accuracy, a minimum L/D must be ensured. The design of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) drives the upper limit on L/D. A higher L/D can drive mass into the design of the TPS. Conversely, once the TPS is designed, the L/D must be ensured to stay below a certain limit in order for the TPS to stay within its design envelop. The L/D must stay within its upper and lower bounds during dispersed flight conditions. L/D is a function of both the aerodynamics and the center-of-gravity (CG) of the vehicle. The aerodynamics of the vehicle are determined by Computational Fluid Mechanics (CFD) and wind tunnel tests. However, the aerodynamics are not known precisely. Instead, an aerodynamic database has been developed where the aerodynamic coefficients are known to fall within a probabilistic band defined by upper and lower bounds. It is expected that the probabilistic band will shrink after the first missions are flown and real-world data is collected. Until that time, the Orion must be designed to the current aerodynamic database. Thus, for a given aerodynamic database with given uncertainties, the allowable range in L/D can be mapped to an allowable box for the CG location. The CG box is used to set requirements on the dispersions allowed for vehicle packaging and cargo storage. As the aerodynamic uncertainties decrease, the size of the CG box can increase. This paper discusses the technique used to map the minimum and maximum L/D bounds set by the entry performance requirements to the allowable dispersions in CG while accounting for aerodynamic uncertainties. The L/D is defined as the ratio of the lift force to the drag force. It is equivalent to the ratio of lift coefficient (C(sub L)) over drag coefficient (C(sub D)). C(sub L) and C(sub D) are functions of Mach number (M) and angle of attack (alpha). A Mach number of 25 is used as a measuring point of the hypersonic L/D. Variations in C(sub L), C(sub D) and alpha cause variations in L/D. Equation (1) shows the three contributions to the variation in L/D.

Masses of Nix and Hydra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tholen, David J.; Buie, M. W.; Grundy, W.

2007-05-01

Two new, small satellites of Pluto were discovered in 2005 using deep images from the Hubble Space Telescope. The IAU has approved the name Hydra for the outermost satellite and the name Nix for the one orbiting at an intermediate distance between Charon and Hydra. We used the two discovery observations of Nix and Hydra from 2005, the two confirmation observations from 2006, and the twelve prediscovery observations from 2001 and 2002, as well as available observations of Charon, to perform a four-body orbit solution for the Pluto system. Mutual perturbations have placed constraints on the masses of each member of the system. Previous work placed useful limits on the masses of Pluto and Charon, as well as their densities, given the known sizes of the bodies based on stellar occultation and mutual event observations, therefore our new work is aimed at placing constraints on the masses of Nix and Hydra. The best-fit GM values for Nix and Hydra are 0.040 and 0.021 km3 sec-2. The uncertainty in the GM of Hydra is large enough to allow for a negligible mass. At the one-sigma level, we can rule out masses near the upper limit of what is physically reasonable (correpsonding to a combination of low albedos and high densities) for both satellites, and in the case of Nix, we can also rule out a mass near the lower limit (corresponding to a high albedo and low density). We have determined empirically that the rate of precession of the line of apsides of Charon's slightly eccentric orbit is proportional to the mass of Nix and Hydra. New HST observations of the satellites are scheduled, which should improve the orbit solution and reduce the uncertainties in the masses. Ultimately, these results will place constraints on models for the formation of the system.

The Effect of Geographic Location on Circannual Adrenocorticotropic Hormone Plasma Concentrations in Horses in Australia.

PubMed

Secombe, C J; Tan, R H H; Perara, D I; Byrne, D P; Watts, S P; Wearn, J G

2017-09-01

Longitudinal evaluation of plasma endogenous ACTH concentration in clinically normal horses has not been investigated in the Southern Hemisphere. To longitudinally determine monthly upper reference limits for plasma ACTH in 2 disparate Australian geographic locations and to examine whether location affected the circannual rhythm of endogenous ACTH in the 2 groups of horses over a 12-month period. Clinically normal horses <20 years of age from 4 properties (institutional herd and client owned animals) in Perth (n = 40) and Townsville (n = 41) were included in the study. A prospective longitudinal descriptive study to determine the upper reference limit and confidence intervals for plasma ACTH in each geographic location using the ASVCP reference interval (RI) guidelines, for individual months and monthly groupings for 12 consecutive months. Plasma endogenous ACTH concentrations demonstrated a circannual rhythm. The increase in endogenous ACTH was not confined to the autumnal months but was associated with changes in photoperiod. During the quiescent period, plasma ACTH concentrations were lower, ≤43 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% confidence interval (CI)) in horses from Perth and ≤67 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Townsville, than at the acrophase, ≤94 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Perth, ≤101 pg/mL (upper limit of the 90% CI) in horses from Townsville. Circannual rhythms of endogenous ACTH concentrations vary between geographic locations, this could be due to changes in photoperiod or other unknown factors, and upper reference limits should be determined for specific locations. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Modification, calibration, and performance of the Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer for particle size distribution and volatility measurements during the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) airborne campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupc, Agnieszka; Williamson, Christina; Wagner, Nicholas L.; Richardson, Mathews; Brock, Charles A.

2018-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol is a key component of the chemistry and climate of the Earth's atmosphere. Accurate measurement of the concentration of atmospheric particles as a function of their size is fundamental to investigations of particle microphysics, optical characteristics, and chemical processes. We describe the modification, calibration, and performance of two commercially available, Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometers (UHSASs) as used on the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). To avoid sample flow issues related to pressure variations during aircraft altitude changes, we installed a laminar flow meter on each instrument to measure sample flow directly at the inlet as well as flow controllers to maintain constant volumetric sheath flows. In addition, we added a compact thermodenuder operating at 300 °C to the inlet line of one of the instruments. With these modifications, the instruments are capable of making accurate (ranging from 7 % for Dp < 0.07 µm to 1 % for Dp > 0.13 µm), precise (< ±1.2 %), and continuous (1 Hz) measurements of size-resolved particle number concentration over the diameter range of 0.063-1.0 µm at ambient pressures of > 1000 to 225 hPa, while simultaneously providing information on particle volatility.We assessed the effect of uncertainty in the refractive index (n) of ambient particles that are sized by the UHSAS assuming the refractive index of ammonium sulfate (n = 1.52). For calibration particles with n between 1.44 and 1.58, the UHSAS diameter varies by +4/-10 % relative to ammonium sulfate. This diameter uncertainty associated with the range of refractive indices (i.e., particle composition) translates to aerosol surface area and volume uncertainties of +8.4/-17.8 and +12.4/-27.5 %, respectively. In addition to sizing uncertainty, low counting statistics can lead to uncertainties of < 20 % for aerosol surface area and < 30 % for volume with 10 s time resolution. The UHSAS reduction in counting efficiency was corrected for concentrations > 1000 cm-3.Examples of thermodenuded and non-thermodenuded aerosol number and volume size distributions as well as propagated uncertainties are shown for several cases encountered during the ATom project. Uncertainties in particle number concentration were limited by counting statistics, especially in the tropical upper troposphere where accumulation-mode concentrations were sometimes < 20 cm-3 (counting rates ˜ 5 Hz) at standard temperature and pressure.

Weak values and weak coupling maximizing the output of weak measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Antonio, E-mail: dilorenzo.antonio@gmail.com

2014-06-15

In a weak measurement, the average output 〈o〉 of a probe that measures an observable A{sup -hat} of a quantum system undergoing both a preparation in a state ρ{sub i} and a postselection in a state E{sub f} is, to a good approximation, a function of the weak value A{sub w}=Tr[E{sub f}A{sup -hat} ρ{sub i}]/Tr[E{sub f}ρ{sub i}], a complex number. For a fixed coupling λ, when the overlap Tr[E{sub f}ρ{sub i}] is very small, A{sub w} diverges, but 〈o〉 stays finite, often tending to zero for symmetry reasons. This paper answers the questions: what is the weak value that maximizesmore » the output for a fixed coupling? What is the coupling that maximizes the output for a fixed weak value? We derive equations for the optimal values of A{sub w} and λ, and provide the solutions. The results are independent of the dimensionality of the system, and they apply to a probe having a Hilbert space of arbitrary dimension. Using the Schrödinger–Robertson uncertainty relation, we demonstrate that, in an important case, the amplification 〈o〉 cannot exceed the initial uncertainty σ{sub o} in the observable o{sup -hat}, we provide an upper limit for the more general case, and a strategy to obtain 〈o〉≫σ{sub o}. - Highlights: •We have provided a general framework to find the extremal values of a weak measurement. •We have derived the location of the extremal values in terms of preparation and postselection. •We have devised a maximization strategy going beyond the limit of the Schrödinger–Robertson relation.« less

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder Temperature and Pressure Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fishbein, E. F.; Cofield, R. E.; Froidevaux, L.; Jarnot, R. F.; Lungu, T.; Read, W. G.; Shippony, Z.; Waters, J. W.; McDermid, I. S.; McGee, T. J.;

Future of Alpine Water Resources : Uncertainty from Trees and Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceperley, N. C.; Beria, H.; Michelon, A.; Schaefli, B.

2016-12-01

Alpine water resources are particularly susceptible to climate change, which presents a high risk to many of the ecologic and economic roles played by mountain environments. In Switzerland, water from glacier-fed catchments provides a large portion of hydroelectric power and water supply as well as a multitude of services including the creation and maintenance of biological communities and the physical landscape. Loss of glaciers will also pose indirect consequences, such as changing the hydrologic, biologic, and physical environment, for example opening up new surfaces for vegetation growth and forestation. Hydrologic models are a primary tool to predict these consequences. Quantifying evaporation is an on-going challenge for modeling, and changes in the partition between transpiration and evaporation from bare ground or sublimation from glaciers is a larve source of uncertainty in the alpine water balance. We just began an intensive monitoring program of hydrological processes in the Vallon de Nant, Switzerland (area of 14 km², altitude ranging from 1200 to 3051 m). This site is both a karst system and a protected area, making it a particularly interesting site to study eco-hydrologic processes. Monitoring of stable isotopes (δO18 and δD) in water combines with measurements of climate and hydrologic parameters to quantify flows through the components of the water balance and assess their certainty. Additionally, we are observing water use by trees at the upper limit of their habitat range. Our presentation will highlight the importance of in situ measurements to quantify the spatial and temporal variations in the water balance. We will discuss the innovative measurement techniques that we are deploying, the uncertainty from each component, and show the first results of our work.

A Reference Field for GCR Simulation and an LET-Based Implementation at NSRL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slaba, Tony C.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Walker, Steven A.; Norbury, John W.

2015-01-01

Exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) on long duration deep space missions presents a serious health risk to astronauts, with large uncertainties connected to the biological response. In order to reduce the uncertainties and gain understanding about the basic mechanisms through which space radiation initiates cancer and other endpoints, radiobiology experiments are performed. Some of the accelerator facilities supporting such experiments have matured to a point where simulating the broad range of particles and energies characteristic of the GCR environment in a single experiment is feasible from a technology, usage, and cost perspective. In this work, several aspects of simulating the GCR environment in the laboratory are discussed. First, comparisons are made between direct simulation of the external, free space GCR field and simulation of the induced tissue field behind shielding. It is found that upper energy constraints at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) limit the ability to simulate the external, free space field directly (i.e. shielding placed in the beam line in front of a biological target and exposed to a free space spectrum). Second, variation in the induced tissue field associated with shielding configuration and solar activity is addressed. It is found that the observed variation is within physical uncertainties, allowing a single reference field for deep space missions to be defined. Third, an approach for simulating the reference field at NSRL is presented. The approach allows for the linear energy transfer (LET) spectrum of the reference field to be approximately represented with discrete ion and energy beams and implicitly maintains a reasonably accurate charge spectrum (or, average quality factor). Drawbacks of the proposed methodology are discussed and weighed against alternative simulation strategies. The neutron component and track structure characteristics of the proposed strategy are discussed in this context.

Strategies for Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information

PubMed Central

Madan, Jason; Ades, Anthony E.; Price, Malcolm; Maitland, Kathryn; Jemutai, Julie; Revill, Paul; Welton, Nicky J.

2014-01-01

Expected value of information methods evaluate the potential health benefits that can be obtained from conducting new research to reduce uncertainty in the parameters of a cost-effectiveness analysis model, hence reducing decision uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) provides an upper limit to the health gains that can be obtained from conducting a new study on a subset of parameters in the cost-effectiveness analysis and can therefore be used as a sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that most contribute to decision uncertainty and to help guide decisions around which types of study are of most value to prioritize for funding. A common general approach is to use nested Monte Carlo simulation to obtain an estimate of EVPPI. This approach is computationally intensive, can lead to significant sampling bias if an inadequate number of inner samples are obtained, and incorrect results can be obtained if correlations between parameters are not dealt with appropriately. In this article, we set out a range of methods for estimating EVPPI that avoid the need for nested simulation: reparameterization of the net benefit function, Taylor series approximations, and restricted cubic spline estimation of conditional expectations. For each method, we set out the generalized functional form that net benefit must take for the method to be valid. By specifying this functional form, our methods are able to focus on components of the model in which approximation is required, avoiding the complexities involved in developing statistical approximations for the model as a whole. Our methods also allow for any correlations that might exist between model parameters. We illustrate the methods using an example of fluid resuscitation in African children with severe malaria. PMID:24449434

ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Van Dyk, David A.

2010-08-10

A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error),more » and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper limits that applies to all detection algorithms.« less

Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

PubMed

Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan

2008-08-01

Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

Uncertainty estimates in broadband seismometer sensitivities using microseisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, Adam T.; Storm, Tyler L.; Gee, Lind S.; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David C.

2015-01-01

The midband sensitivity of a seismic instrument is one of the fundamental parameters used in published station metadata. Any errors in this value can compromise amplitude estimates in otherwise high-quality data. To estimate an upper bound in the uncertainty of the midband sensitivity for modern broadband instruments, we compare daily microseism (4- to 8-s period) amplitude ratios between the vertical components of colocated broadband sensors across the IRIS/USGS (network code IU) seismic network. We find that the mean of the 145,972 daily ratios used between 2002 and 2013 is 0.9895 with a standard deviation of 0.0231. This suggests that the ratio between instruments shows a small bias and considerable scatter. We also find that these ratios follow a standard normal distribution (R 2 = 0.95442), which suggests that the midband sensitivity of an instrument has an error of no greater than ±6 % with a 99 % confidence interval. This gives an upper bound on the precision to which we know the sensitivity of a fielded instrument.

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.

PubMed

El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P

2018-01-26

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

TU-AB-BRB-03: Coverage-Based Treatment Planning to Accommodate Organ Deformable Motions and Contouring Uncertainties for Prostate Treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, H.

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. Themore » treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.« less

TU-AB-BRB-02: Stochastic Programming Methods for Handling Uncertainty and Motion in IMRT Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unkelbach, J.

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. Themore » treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.« less

Fundamental uncertainty limit for speckle displacement measurements.

PubMed

Fischer, Andreas

2017-09-01

The basic metrological task in speckle photography is to quantify displacements of speckle patterns, allowing for instance the investigation of the mechanical load and modification of objects with rough surfaces. However, the fundamental limit of the measurement uncertainty due to photon shot noise is unknown. For this reason, the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) is derived for speckle displacement measurements, representing the squared minimal achievable measurement uncertainty. As result, the CRB for speckle patterns is only two times the CRB for an ideal point light source. Hence, speckle photography is an optimal measurement approach for contactless displacement measurements on rough surfaces. In agreement with a derivation from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, the CRB depends on the number of detected photons and the diffraction limit of the imaging system described by the speckle size. The theoretical results are verified and validated, demonstrating the capability for displacement measurements with nanometer resolution.

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wal, Wouter; Wu, Patrick; Sideris, Michael G.; Shum, C. K.

2008-10-01

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity. It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate. The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.

Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

Nighttime OClO in the Winter Arctic Vortex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canty, T.; Riviere, E. D.; Salawitch, R. J.; Berthet, G.; Renard, J. -B.; Pfeilsticker, K.; Dorf, M.; Butz, A.; Bosch, H.; Stimpfle, R. M.;

Maximum Magnitude and Probabilities of Induced Earthquakes in California Geothermal Fields: Applications for a Science-Based Decision Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, Deborah Anne

Induced seismicity is occurring at increasing rates around the country. Brodsky and Lajoie (2013) and others have recognized anthropogenic quakes at a few geothermal fields in California. I use three techniques to assess if there are induced earthquakes in California geothermal fields; there are three sites with clear induced seismicity: Brawley, The Geysers, and Salton Sea. Moderate to strong evidence is found at Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, and Susanville. Little to no evidence is found for Heber and Wendel. I develop a set of tools to reduce or cope with the risk imposed by these earthquakes, and also to address uncertainties through simulations. I test if an earthquake catalog may be bounded by an upper magnitude limit. I address whether the earthquake record during pumping time is consistent with the past earthquake record, or if injection can explain all or some of the earthquakes. I also present ways to assess the probability of future earthquake occurrence based on past records. I summarize current legislation for eight states where induced earthquakes are of concern. Unlike tectonic earthquakes, the hazard from induced earthquakes has the potential to be modified. I discuss direct and indirect mitigation practices. I present a framework with scientific and communication techniques for assessing uncertainty, ultimately allowing more informed decisions to be made.

Concentrations of Volatiles in the Lunar Regolith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Jeff; Taylor, Larry; Duke, Mike

2007-01-01

To set lower and upper limits on the overall amounts and types of volatiles released during heating of polar regolith, we examined the data for equatorial lunar regolith and for the compositions of comets. The purpose, specifically, was to answer these questions: 1. Upper/Lower limits and 'best guess' for total amount of volatiles (by weight %) released from lunar regolith up to 150C 2. Upper/Lower limit and 'best guess' for composition of the volatiles released from the lunar regolith by weight %

Radiation protection for manned space activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, T. M.

1983-01-01

The Earth's natural radiation environment poses a hazard to manned space activities directly through biological effects and indirectly through effects on materials and electronics. The following standard practices are indicated that address: (1) environment models for all radiation species including uncertainties and temporal variations; (2) upper bound and nominal quality factors for biological radiation effects that include dose, dose rate, critical organ, and linear energy transfer variations; (3) particle transport and shielding methodology including system and man modeling and uncertainty analysis; (4) mission planning that includes active dosimetry, minimizes exposure during extravehicular activities, subjects every mission to a radiation review, and specifies operational procedures for forecasting, recognizing, and dealing with large solar flaes.

A new design approach to achieve a minimum impulse limit cycle in the presence of significant measurement uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, M. W.; Kubiak, E. T.

1982-01-01

A new design was developed for the Space Shuttle Transition Phase Digital Autopilot to reduce the impact of large measurement uncertainties in the rate signal during attitude control. The signal source, which was dictated by early computer constraints, is characterized by large quantization, noise, bias, and transport lag which produce a measurement uncertainty larger than the minimum impulse rate change. To ensure convergence to a minimum impulse limit cycle, the design employed bias and transport lag compensation and a switching logic with hysteresis, rate deadzone, and 'walking' switching line. The design background, the rate measurement uncertainties, and the design solution are documented.

Measurements of the Temperature and E-mode Polarization of the CMB from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henning, J. W.; Sayre, J. T.; Reichardt, C. L.

2018-01-10

We present measurements of themore » $E$-mode polarization angular auto-power spectrum ($EE$) and temperature-$E$-mode cross-power spectrum ($TE$) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data from three seasons of SPTpol observations. We now report the $EE$ and $TE$ power spectra over the spherical harmonic multipole range $$50 < \\ell \\leq 8000$$, and detect the first nine acoustic peaks in the $EE$ spectrum with high signal-to-noise. These measurements are the most sensitive to date of the $EE$ and $TE$ angular polarization power spectra at $$\\ell > 1050$$ and $$\\ell > 1475$$, respectively. The observations cover $$500\\, \\rm{deg}^2$$ of sky, a fivefold increase in area compared to previous SPTpol power spectrum releases, leading to more than a factor of two reduction in bandpower uncertainties. The additional sky coverage increases our sensitivity to the photon-diffusion damping tail of the CMB angular power spectra, which enables tighter constraints on $$\\Lambda CDM$$ model extensions such as primordial helium content $$Y_\\rm{p}$$ and effective number of relativistic species $$N_\\rm{eff}$$. Furthermore, after masking all sources with unpolarized flux $>50$ mJy we place a 95% confidence upper limit on residual polarized point-source power of $$D_\\ell < 0.10 \\mu{\\rm K}^2$$ at $$\\ell=3000$$. This limit is a factor of four lower than the previous best upper limit, and suggests that the $EE$ damping tail is brighter than foregrounds to at least $$\\ell = 4100$$ with modest source masking. Finally, we find cosmological parameter constraints consistent with those for $Planck$ temperature when fitting SPTpol data at $$\\ell < 1000$$. However, including SPTpol data at $$\\ell > 1000$$ results in a preference for a higher value of the expansion rate ($$H_0 = 71.2 \\pm 2.1\\,\\mbox{km}\\,s^{-1}\\mbox{Mpc}^{-1}$$) and a lower value for present-day density fluctuations ($$\\sigma_8 = 0.77 \\pm 0.02$$). (Abridged).« less

Measurements of the Temperature and E-mode Polarization of the CMB from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henning, J. W.; Sayre, J. T.; Reichardt, C. L.

We present measurements of themore » $E$-mode polarization angular auto-power spectrum ($EE$) and temperature-$E$-mode cross-power spectrum ($TE$) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data from three seasons of SPTpol observations. We now report the $EE$ and $TE$ power spectra over the spherical harmonic multipole range $$50 < \\ell \\leq 8000$$, and detect the first nine acoustic peaks in the $EE$ spectrum with high signal-to-noise. These measurements are the most sensitive to date of the $EE$ and $TE$ angular polarization power spectra at $$\\ell > 1050$$ and $$\\ell > 1475$$, respectively. The observations cover $$500\\, \\rm{deg}^2$$ of sky, a fivefold increase in area compared to previous SPTpol power spectrum releases, leading to more than a factor of two reduction in bandpower uncertainties. The additional sky coverage increases our sensitivity to the photon-diffusion damping tail of the CMB angular power spectra, which enables tighter constraints on $$\\Lambda CDM$$ model extensions such as primordial helium content $$Y_\\rm{p}$$ and effective number of relativistic species $$N_\\rm{eff}$$. Furthermore, after masking all sources with unpolarized flux $>50$ mJy we place a 95% confidence upper limit on residual polarized point-source power of $$D_\\ell < 0.10 \\mu{\\rm K}^2$$ at $$\\ell=3000$$. This limit is a factor of four lower than the previous best upper limit, and suggests that the $EE$ damping tail is brighter than foregrounds to at least $$\\ell = 4100$$ with modest source masking. Finally, we find cosmological parameter constraints consistent with those for $Planck$ temperature when fitting SPTpol data at $$\\ell < 1000$$. However, including SPTpol data at $$\\ell > 1000$$ results in a preference for a higher value of the expansion rate ($$H_0 = 71.2 \\pm 2.1\\,\\mbox{km}\\,s^{-1}\\mbox{Mpc}^{-1}$$) and a lower value for present-day density fluctuations ($$\\sigma_8 = 0.77 \\pm 0.02$$). (Abridged).« less

Measurements of the Temperature and E-mode Polarization of the CMB from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data

DOE PAGES

Henning, J. W.; Sayre, J. T.; Reichardt, C. L.; ...

2018-01-11

We present measurements of themore » $E$-mode polarization angular auto-power spectrum ($EE$) and temperature-$E$-mode cross-power spectrum ($TE$) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data from three seasons of SPTpol observations. We now report the $EE$ and $TE$ power spectra over the spherical harmonic multipole range $$50 < \\ell \\leq 8000$$, and detect the first nine acoustic peaks in the $EE$ spectrum with high signal-to-noise. These measurements are the most sensitive to date of the $EE$ and $TE$ angular polarization power spectra at $$\\ell > 1050$$ and $$\\ell > 1475$$, respectively. The observations cover $$500\\, \\rm{deg}^2$$ of sky, a fivefold increase in area compared to previous SPTpol power spectrum releases, leading to more than a factor of two reduction in bandpower uncertainties. The additional sky coverage increases our sensitivity to the photon-diffusion damping tail of the CMB angular power spectra, which enables tighter constraints on $$\\Lambda CDM$$ model extensions such as primordial helium content $$Y_\\rm{p}$$ and effective number of relativistic species $$N_\\rm{eff}$$. Furthermore, after masking all sources with unpolarized flux $>50$ mJy we place a 95% confidence upper limit on residual polarized point-source power of $$D_\\ell < 0.10 \\mu{\\rm K}^2$$ at $$\\ell=3000$$. This limit is a factor of four lower than the previous best upper limit, and suggests that the $EE$ damping tail is brighter than foregrounds to at least $$\\ell = 4100$$ with modest source masking. Finally, we find cosmological parameter constraints consistent with those for $Planck$ temperature when fitting SPTpol data at $$\\ell < 1000$$. However, including SPTpol data at $$\\ell > 1000$$ results in a preference for a higher value of the expansion rate ($$H_0 = 71.2 \\pm 2.1\\,\\mbox{km}\\,s^{-1}\\mbox{Mpc}^{-1}$$) and a lower value for present-day density fluctuations ($$\\sigma_8 = 0.77 \\pm 0.02$$). (Abridged).« less

When 1+1 can be >2: Uncertainties compound when simulating climate, fisheries and marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Karen; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Nicol, Simon J.; Hoyle, Simon; Matear, Richard; Arrizabalaga, Haritz

2015-03-01

Multi-disciplinary approaches that combine oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecosystem, fisheries population and socio-economic models are vital tools for modelling whole ecosystems. Interpreting the outputs from such complex models requires an appreciation of the many different types of modelling frameworks being used and their associated limitations and uncertainties. Both users and developers of particular model components will often have little involvement or understanding of other components within such modelling frameworks. Failure to recognise limitations and uncertainties associated with components and how these uncertainties might propagate throughout modelling frameworks can potentially result in poor advice for resource management. Unfortunately, many of the current integrative frameworks do not propagate the uncertainties of their constituent parts. In this review, we outline the major components of a generic whole of ecosystem modelling framework incorporating the external pressures of climate and fishing. We discuss the limitations and uncertainties associated with each component of such a modelling system, along with key research gaps. Major uncertainties in modelling frameworks are broadly categorised into those associated with (i) deficient knowledge in the interactions of climate and ocean dynamics with marine organisms and ecosystems; (ii) lack of observations to assess and advance modelling efforts and (iii) an inability to predict with confidence natural ecosystem variability and longer term changes as a result of external drivers (e.g. greenhouse gases, fishing effort) and the consequences for marine ecosystems. As a result of these uncertainties and intrinsic differences in the structure and parameterisation of models, users are faced with considerable challenges associated with making appropriate choices on which models to use. We suggest research directions required to address these uncertainties, and caution against overconfident predictions. Understanding the full impact of uncertainty makes it clear that full comprehension and robust certainty about the systems themselves are not feasible. A key research direction is the development of management systems that are robust to this unavoidable uncertainty.

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Detailed spectroscopy of 110Cd: Evidence for weak mixing and the emergence of γ-soft behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, P. E.; Bangay, J.; Diaz Varela, A.; Ball, G. C.; Cross, D. S.; Demand, G. A.; Finlay, P.; Garnsworthy, A. B.; Green, K. L.; Hackman, G.; Hannant, C. D.; Jigmeddorj, B.; Jolie, J.; Kulp, W. D.; Leach, K. G.; Orce, J. N.; Phillips, A. A.; Radich, A. J.; Rand, E. T.; Schumaker, M. A.; Svensson, C. E.; Sumithrarachchi, C.; Triambak, S.; Warr, N.; Wong, J.; Wood, J. L.; Yates, S. W.

2012-10-01

A study of the β+-electron capture decay of 110In into levels of 110Cd is combined with a reanalysis of data from a previous study of 110Cd with the (n,n'γ) reaction with monoenergetic neutrons. The γγ coincidences from the 110In decay leads to many new assignments of γ rays observed in the (n,n'γ) reaction, permitting the observation of weak low-energy transitions, and setting stringent upper limits on unobserved decay branches. The uncertainties on many of the lifetimes from the (n,n'γ) reaction are significantly reduced, and limits are established for the lifetimes of levels too long for a direct measurement. The absence of enhanced transitions between the previously assigned phonon states and the deformed intruder states strongly suggests that mixing between the configurations is generally weak, refuting the strong-mixing scenario as an explanation of the decay pattern of the excited 0+ states in 110Cd. The decay pattern of the nonintruder states is suggestive of a γ-soft rotor, or O(6) nucleus, rather than a vibrational, or U(5), pattern. The existence of a four-particle-six-hole proton excitation in 110Cd is also suggested.

Search for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum in [Formula: see text] = 13 TeV [Formula: see text] collisions at the LHC using the ATLAS detector.

PubMed

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2016-01-01

A search has been made for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search makes use of [Formula: see text] of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. Using a combination of data-driven and Monte-Carlo-based approaches, the Standard Model background is estimated to be [Formula: see text] events. No events are observed in the signal region; considering the expected background and its uncertainty, this observation implies a model-independent 95 % CL upper limit of 0.93 fb (3.0 events) on the visible cross section due to physics beyond the Standard Model. In the context of a generalized model of gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with a bino-like next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, this leads to a lower limit of 1650 GeV on the mass of a degenerate octet of gluino states, independent of the mass of the lighter bino-like neutralino.

Search for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum in \\varvec{√{s}} = 13 TeV \\varvec{pp} collisions at the LHC using the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdinov, O.; Abeloos, B.; Aben, R.; AbouZeid, O. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Abreu, R.; Abulaiti, Y.; Acharya, B. S.; Adachi, S.; Adamczyk, L.; Adams, D. L.; Adelman, J.; Adomeit, S.; Adye, T.; Affolder, A. A.; Agatonovic-Jovin, T.; Agricola, J.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahmadov, F.; Aielli, G.; Akerstedt, H.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimov, A. V.; Alberghi, G. L.; Albert, J.; Albrand, S.; Verzini, M. J. Alconada; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Ali, B.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Alkire, S. P.; Allbrooke, B. M. M.; Allen, B. W.; Allport, P. P.; Aloisio, A.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, F.; Alpigiani, C.; Alshehri, A. A.; Alstaty, M.; Gonzalez, B. Alvarez; Piqueras, D. Álvarez; Alviggi, M. G.; Amadio, B. T.; Amako, K.; Coutinho, Y. Amaral; Amelung, C.; Amidei, D.; Santos, S. P. Amor Dos; Amorim, A.; Amoroso, S.; Amundsen, G.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. 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E.; Barak, L.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Barillari, T.; Barisits, M.-S.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnes, S. L.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Barnovska-Blenessy, Z.; Baroncelli, A.; Barone, G.; Barr, A. J.; Navarro, L. Barranco; Barreiro, F.; da Costa, J. Barreiro Guimarães; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartos, P.; Basalaev, A.; Bassalat, A.; Bates, R. L.; Batista, S. J.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, M.; Bauce, M.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beacham, J. B.; Beattie, M. D.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Becker, K.; Becker, M.; Beckingham, M.; Becot, C.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bedognetti, M.; Bee, C. P.; Beemster, L. J.; Beermann, T. A.; Begel, M.; Behr, J. K.; Belanger-Champagne, C.; Bell, A. S.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellerive, A.; Bellomo, M.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Belyaev, N. L.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Bender, M.; Bendtz, K.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Noccioli, E. Benhar; Benitez, J.; Benjamin, D. P.; Bensinger, J. R.; Bentvelsen, S.; Beresford, L.; Beretta, M.; Berge, D.; Kuutmann, E. Bergeaas; Berger, N.; Beringer, J.; Berlendis, S.; Bernard, N. R.; Bernius, C.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Berry, T.; Berta, P.; Bertella, C.; Bertoli, G.; Bertolucci, F.; Bertram, I. A.; Bertsche, C.; Bertsche, D.; Besjes, G. J.; Bylund, O. Bessidskaia; Bessner, M.; Besson, N.; Betancourt, C.; Bethani, A.; Bethke, S.; Bevan, A. J.; Bianchi, R. M.; Bianchini, L.; Bianco, M.; Biebel, O.; Biedermann, D.; Bielski, R.; Biesuz, N. V.; Biglietti, M.; De Mendizabal, J. Bilbao; Billoud, T. R. V.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Binet, S.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biondi, S.; Bisanz, T.; Bjergaard, D. M.; Black, C. W.; Black, J. E.; Black, K. M.; Blackburn, D.; Blair, R. E.; Blanchard, J.-B.; Blazek, T.; Bloch, I.; Blocker, C.; Blue, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Blunier, S.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. S.; Bocchetta, S. S.; Bocci, A.; Bock, C.; Boehler, M.; Boerner, D.; Bogaerts, J. 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A.; Buehrer, F.; Bugge, M. K.; Bulekov, O.; Bullock, D.; Burckhart, H.; Burdin, S.; Burgard, C. D.; Burghgrave, B.; Burka, K.; Burke, S.; Burmeister, I.; Burr, J. T. P.; Busato, E.; Büscher, D.; Büscher, V.; Bussey, P.; Butler, J. M.; Buttar, C. M.; Butterworth, J. M.; Butti, P.; Buttinger, W.; Buzatu, A.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Urbán, S. Cabrera; Caforio, D.; Cairo, V. M.; Cakir, O.; Calace, N.; Calafiura, P.; Calandri, A.; Calderini, G.; Calfayan, P.; Callea, G.; Caloba, L. P.; Lopez, S. Calvente; Calvet, D.; Calvet, S.; Calvet, T. P.; Toro, R. Camacho; Camarda, S.; Camarri, P.; Cameron, D.; Armadans, R. Caminal; Camincher, C.; Campana, S.; Campanelli, M.; Camplani, A.; Campoverde, A.; Canale, V.; Canepa, A.; Bret, M. Cano; Cantero, J.; Cao, T.; Garrido, M. D. M. Capeans; Caprini, I.; Caprini, M.; Capua, M.; Carbone, R. M.; Cardarelli, R.; Cardillo, F.; Carli, I.; Carli, T.; Carlino, G.; Carminati, L.; Caron, S.; Carquin, E.; Carrillo-Montoya, G. D.; Carter, J. 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V.; Choi, K.; Chomont, A. R.; Chouridou, S.; Chow, B. K. B.; Christodoulou, V.; Chromek-Burckhart, D.; Chudoba, J.; Chuinard, A. J.; Chwastowski, J. J.; Chytka, L.; Ciapetti, G.; Ciftci, A. K.; Cinca, D.; Cindro, V.; Cioara, I. A.; Ciocca, C.; Ciocio, A.; Cirotto, F.; Citron, Z. H.; Citterio, M.; Ciubancan, M.; Clark, A.; Clark, B. L.; Clark, M. R.; Clark, P. J.; Clarke, R. N.; Clement, C.; Coadou, Y.; Cobal, M.; Coccaro, A.; Cochran, J.; Colasurdo, L.; Cole, B.; Colijn, A. P.; Collot, J.; Colombo, T.; Compostella, G.; Muiño, P. Conde; Coniavitis, E.; Connell, S. H.; Connelly, I. A.; Consorti, V.; Constantinescu, S.; Conti, G.; Conventi, F.; Cooke, M.; Cooper, B. D.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Cormier, K. J. R.; Cornelissen, T.; Corradi, M.; Corriveau, F.; Corso-Radu, A.; Cortes-Gonzalez, A.; Cortiana, G.; Costa, G.; Costa, M. J.; Costanzo, D.; Cottin, G.; Cowan, G.; Cox, B. E.; Cranmer, K.; Crawley, S. J.; Cree, G.; Crépé-Renaudin, S.; Crescioli, F.; Cribbs, W. A.; Ortuzar, M. 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M.; Wang, T.; Wang, T.; Wang, W.; Wang, X.; Wanotayaroj, C.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Wardrope, D. R.; Washbrook, A.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, B. M.; Webb, S.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, S. W.; Weber, S. A.; Webster, J. S.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weinert, B.; Weingarten, J.; Weiser, C.; Weits, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wenaus, T.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M.; Werner, M. D.; Werner, P.; Wessels, M.; Wetter, J.; Whalen, K.; Whallon, N. L.; Wharton, A. M.; White, A.; White, M. J.; White, R.; Whiteson, D.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik-Fuchs, L. A. M.; Wildauer, A.; Wilk, F.; Wilkens, H. G.; Williams, H. H.; Williams, S.; Willis, C.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winklmeier, F.; Winston, O. J.; Winter, B. T.; Wittgen, M.; Wittkowski, J.; Wolf, T. M. H.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Worm, S. D.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Woudstra, M. J.; Wozniak, K. W.; Wu, M.; Wu, M.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wu, Y.; Wyatt, T. R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xella, S.; Xu, D.; Xu, L.; Yabsley, B.; Yacoob, S.; Yamaguchi, D.; Yamaguchi, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamanaka, T.; Yamauchi, K.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, H.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yao, W.-M.; Yap, Y. C.; Yasu, Y.; Yatsenko, E.; Wong, K. H. Yau; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yeletskikh, I.; Yen, A. L.; Yildirim, E.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, R.; Yoshihara, K.; Young, C.; Young, C. J. S.; Youssef, S.; Yu, D. R.; Yu, J.; Yu, J. M.; Yu, J.; Yuan, L.; Yuen, S. P. Y.; Yusuff, I.; Zabinski, B.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zakharchuk, N.; Zalieckas, J.; Zaman, A.; Zambito, S.; Zanello, L.; Zanzi, D.; Zecchinelli, A. G.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zeman, M.; Zemla, A.; Zeng, J. C.; Zeng, Q.; Zengel, K.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zerwas, D.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, C.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, N.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhukov, K.; Zibell, A.; Zieminska, D.; Zimine, N. I.; Zimmermann, C.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Zinser, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Živković, L.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Nedden, M. zur; Zwalinski, L.

2016-09-01

A search has been made for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search makes use of 3.2{ fb^{-1}} of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. Using a combination of data-driven and Monte-Carlo-based approaches, the Standard Model background is estimated to be 0.27^{+0.22}_{-0.10} events. No events are observed in the signal region; considering the expected background and its uncertainty, this observation implies a model-independent 95 % CL upper limit of 0.93 fb (3.0 events) on the visible cross section due to physics beyond the Standard Model. In the context of a generalized model of gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with a bino-like next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, this leads to a lower limit of 1650 GeV on the mass of a degenerate octet of gluino states, independent of the mass of the lighter bino-like neutralino.

Satellite retrieval of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations by using clouds as CCN chambers

PubMed Central

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zheng, Youtong; Hashimshoni, Eyal; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Jefferson, Anne; Pöhlker, Christopher; Yu, Xing; Zhu, Yannian; Liu, Guihua; Yue, Zhiguo; Fischman, Baruch; Li, Zhanqing; Giguzin, David; Goren, Tom; Artaxo, Paulo; Pöschl, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to ∼25% of the world area in a single day. PMID:26944081

Satellite retrieval of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations by using clouds as CCN chambers.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zheng, Youtong; Hashimshoni, Eyal; Pöhlker, Mira L; Jefferson, Anne; Pöhlker, Christopher; Yu, Xing; Zhu, Yannian; Liu, Guihua; Yue, Zhiguo; Fischman, Baruch; Li, Zhanqing; Giguzin, David; Goren, Tom; Artaxo, Paulo; Barbosa, Henrique M J; Pöschl, Ulrich; Andreae, Meinrat O

2016-05-24

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to ∼25% of the world area in a single day.

An Empirical Determination of the Intergalactic Background Light from UV to FIR Wavelengths Using FIR Deep Galaxy Surveys and the Gamma-Ray Opacity of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stecker, Floyd W.; Scully, Sean T.; Malkan, Matthew A.

2016-08-01

We have previously calculated the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of redshift from the Lyman limit in the far-ultraviolet to a wavelength of 5 μm in the near-infrared range, based purely on data from deep galaxy surveys. Here, we use similar methods to determine the mid- and far-infrared IBL from 5 to 850 μm. Our approach enables us to constrain the range of photon densities by determining the uncertainties in observationally determined luminosity densities and spectral gradients. By also including the effect of the 2.7 K cosmic background photons, we determine upper and lower limits on the opacity of the universe to γ-rays up to PeV energies within a 68% confidence band. Our direct results on the IBL are consistent with those from complimentary γ-ray analyses using observations from the Fermi γ-ray space telescope and the H.E.S.S. air Čerenkov telescope. Thus, we find no evidence of previously suggested processes for the modification of γ-ray spectra other than that of absorption by pair production alone.

AN EMPIRICAL DETERMINATION OF THE INTERGALACTIC BACKGROUND LIGHT FROM UV TO FIR WAVELENGTHS USING FIR DEEP GALAXY SURVEYS AND THE GAMMA-RAY OPACITY OF THE UNIVERSE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stecker, Floyd W.; Scully, Sean T.; Malkan, Matthew A., E-mail: Floyd.W.Stecker@nasa.gov, E-mail: scullyst@jmu.edu, E-mail: malkan@astro.ucla.edu

We have previously calculated the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of redshift from the Lyman limit in the far-ultraviolet to a wavelength of 5 μ m in the near-infrared range, based purely on data from deep galaxy surveys. Here, we use similar methods to determine the mid- and far-infrared IBL from 5 to 850 μ m. Our approach enables us to constrain the range of photon densities by determining the uncertainties in observationally determined luminosity densities and spectral gradients. By also including the effect of the 2.7 K cosmic background photons, we determine upper and lower limits onmore » the opacity of the universe to γ -rays up to PeV energies within a 68% confidence band. Our direct results on the IBL are consistent with those from complimentary γ -ray analyses using observations from the Fermi γ -ray space telescope and the H.E.S.S. air Čerenkov telescope. Thus, we find no evidence of previously suggested processes for the modification of γ -ray spectra other than that of absorption by pair production alone.« less

The initial masses of the red supergiant progenitors to Type II supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Ben; Beasor, Emma R.

2018-02-01

There are a growing number of nearby supernovae (SNe) for which the progenitor star is detected in archival pre-explosion imaging. From these images it is possible to measure the progenitor's brightness a few years before explosion, and ultimately estimate its initial mass. Previous work has shown that II-P and II-L SNe have red supergiant (RSG) progenitors, and that the range of initial masses for these progenitors seems to be limited to ≲ 17 M⊙. This is in contrast with the cut-off of 25-30 M⊙ predicted by evolutionary models, a result that is termed the `red supergiant problem'. Here we investigate one particular source of systematic error present in converting pre-explosion photometry into an initial mass, which of the bolometric correction (BC) used to convert a single-band flux into a bolometric luminosity. We show, using star clusters, that RSGs evolve to later spectral types as they approach SN, which in turn causes the BC to become larger. Failure to account for this results in a systematic underestimate of a star's luminosity, and hence its initial mass. Using our empirically motivated BCs we reappraise the II-P and II-L SNe that have their progenitors detected in pre-explosion imaging. Fitting an initial mass function to these updated masses results in an increased upper mass cut-off of Mhi = 19.0^{+2.5}_{-1.3} M⊙, with a 95 per cent upper confidence limit of <27 M⊙. Accounting for finite sample size effects and systematic uncertainties in the mass-luminosity relationship raises the cut-off to Mhi = 25 M⊙ (<33 M⊙, 95 per cent confidence). We therefore conclude that there is currently no strong evidence for `missing' high-mass progenitors to core-collapse SNe.

Tank 241-AX-104 upper vadose zone cone penetrometer demonstration sampling and analysis plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

FIELD, J.G.

1999-02-02

This sampling and analysis plan (SAP) is the primary document describing field and laboratory activities and requirements for the tank 241-AX-104 upper vadose zone cone penetrometer (CP) demonstration. It is written in accordance with Hanford Tank Initiative Tank 241-AX-104 Upper Vadose Zone Demonstration Data Quality Objective (Banning 1999). This technology demonstration, to be conducted at tank 241-AX-104, is being performed by the Hanford Tanks Initiative (HTI) Project as a part of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Retrieval Program (EM-30) and the Office of Science and Technology (EM-50) Tanks Focus Area. Sample results obtained as part of this demonstration will providemore » additional information for subsequent revisions to the Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE) report (Jacobs 1998). The RPE Report is the result of an evaluation of a single tank farm (AX Tank Farm) used as the basis for demonstrating a methodology for developing the data and analyses necessary to support making tank waste retrieval decisions within the context of tank farm closure requirements. The RPE includes a study of vadose zone contaminant transport mechanisms, including analysis of projected tank leak characteristics, hydrogeologic characteristics of tank farm soils, and the observed distribution of contaminants in the vadose zone in the tank farms. With limited characterization information available, large uncertainties exist as to the nature and extent of contaminants that may exist in the upper vadose zone in the AX Tank Farm. Traditionally, data has been collected from soils in the vadose zone through the installation of boreholes and wells. Soil samples are collected as the bore hole is advanced and samples are screened on site and/or sent to a laboratory for analysis. Some in-situ geophysical methods of contaminant analysis can be used to evaluate radionuclide levels in the soils adjacent to an existing borehole. However, geophysical methods require compensation for well casing interference and soil moisture content and may not be successful in some conditions. In some cases the level of interference must be estimated due to uncertainties regarding the materials used in well construction and soil conditions, Well casing deployment used for many in-situ geophysical methods is relatively expensive and geophysical methods do not generally provide real time values for contaminants. In addition, some of these methods are not practical within the boundaries of the tank farm due to physical constraints, such as underground piping and other hardware. The CP technologies could facilitate future characterization of vadose zone soils by providing vadose zone data in near real-time, reducing the number of soil samples and boreholes required, and reducing characterization costs.« less

Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

2016-08-01

Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model development and evaluation efforts.

Evolution of modern approaches to express uncertainty in measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacker, Raghu; Sommer, Klaus-Dieter; Kessel, Rüdiger

2007-12-01

An object of this paper is to discuss the logical development of the concept of uncertainty in measurement and the methods for its quantification from the classical error analysis to the modern approaches based on the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). We review authoritative literature on error analysis and then discuss its limitations which motivated the experts from the International Committee for Weights and Measures (CIPM), the International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM) and various national metrology institutes to develop specific recommendations which form the basis of the GUM. We discuss the new concepts introduced by the GUM and their merits and limitations. The limitations of the GUM led the BIPM Joint Committee on Guides in Metrology to develop an alternative approach—the draft Supplement 1 to the GUM (draft GUM-S1). We discuss the draft GUM-S1 and its merits and limitations. We hope this discussion will lead to a more effective use of the GUM and the draft GUM-S1 and stimulate investigations leading to further improvements in the methods to quantify uncertainty in measurement.

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

IDENTIFYING WOMEN AT RISK OF UNCERTAINTY AND POOR QUALITY OF LIFE WHEN UNDERGOING BREAST CANCER SURGERY: A SURVEY-BASED DESCRIPTIVE STUDY.

PubMed

Van Straten, S K; Xu, M; Rayne, S R

2017-06-01

Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in South African women. In resource-limited settings emphasis for disease management is often concentrated on biological control and survival. However, understanding the full biopsychosocial experience of breast cancer is essential in improving access and patient uptake of care. A quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out in patients prior to breast surgery. Each participant completed the survey including validated questionnaires of uncertainty, QoL index, social support scale and demographics. Of the 59 women approached, 53 (89.9%) participated. Uncertainty was found in 86.8% (28.3% severe uncertainty) with all newly-diagnosed patients experiencing uncertainty. Patients above 45 years made up 80% of all those who were severely uncertain. Good social support did not affect levels of uncertainty. Conversely QoL was improved in women with at least primary education, and in women above 45 years. Pre-surgical chemotherapy was not associated with either uncertainty or QoL. Greatest uncertainty was reported about the roles of the treating staff and the presence of unanswered questions. Older women and those with education more commonly experienced uncertainty, but reported better QoL. The areas of uncertainty can help direct clinicians in limited resources settings to better direct services to help support patients, instituting simple measures of education and orientation.

Effect of Cohesion Uncertainty of Granular Materials on the Kinematics of Scaled Models of Fold-and-Thrust Belts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilfouroushan, F.; Pysklywec, R.; Cruden, S.

2009-05-01

Cohesionless or very low cohesion granular materials are widely used in analogue/physical models to simulate brittle rocks in the upper crust. Selection of materials with appropriate cohesion values in such models is important for the simulation of the dynamics of brittle rock deformation in nature. Uncertainties in the magnitude of cohesion (due to measurement errors, extrapolations at low normal stresses, or model setup) in laboratory experiments can possibly result in misinterpretation of the styles and mechanisms of deformation in natural fold-and thrust belts. We ran a series of 2-D numerical models to investigate systematically the effect of cohesion uncertainties on the evolution of models of fold-and-thrust belts. The analyses employ SOPALE, a geodynamic code based on the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) finite element method. Similar to analogue models, the material properties of sand and transparent silicone (PDMS) are used to simulate brittle and viscous behaviors of upper crustal rocks. The suite of scaled brittle and brittle-viscous numerical experiments have the same initial geometry but the cohesion value of the brittle layers is increased systematically from 0 to 100 Pa. The stress and strain distribution in different sets of models with different cohesion values are compared and analyzed. The kinematics and geometry of thrust wedges including the location and number of foreland- and hinterland- verging thrust faults, pop-up structures, tapers and topography are also explored and their sensitivity to cohesion value is discussed.

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2015-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Research on the effects of geometrical and material uncertainties on the band gap of the undulated beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Xu, Yanlong

2017-09-01

Considering uncertain geometrical and material parameters, the lower and upper bounds of the band gap of an undulated beam with periodically arched shape are studied by the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and interval analysis based on the Taylor series. Given the random variations of the overall uncertain variables, scatter plots from the MCS are used to analyze the qualitative sensitivities of the band gap respect to these uncertainties. We find that the influence of uncertainty of the geometrical parameter on the band gap of the undulated beam is stronger than that of the material parameter. And this conclusion is also proved by the interval analysis based on the Taylor series. Our methodology can give a strategy to reduce the errors between the design and practical values of the band gaps by improving the accuracy of the specially selected uncertain design variables of the periodical structures.

Data Assimilation of InSAR Surface Deformation Measurements for the Estimation of Reservoir Geomechanical Parameters in the Upper Adriatic Sedimentary Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bau, D. A.; Alzraiee, A.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Teatini, P.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, extensive work has been conducted to estimate land subsidence due the development of deep gas reservoirs situated in the Upper Adriatic sedimentary basin, Italy. These modeling efforts have stemmed from the development finite-element (FE) coupled reservoir-geomechanical models that can simulate the deformation due to the change in pore pressure induced by hydrocarbon production from the geological formations. However, the application of these numerical models has often been limited by the uncertainty in the hydrogeological and poro-mechanical input parameters that are necessary to simulate the impact on ground surface levels of past and/or future gas-field development scenarios. Resolving these uncertainties is of paramount importance, particularly the Northern Adriatic region, given the low elevation above the mean sea level observed along most of the coastline and in the areas surrounding the Venice Lagoon. In this work, we present a state-of-the-art data assimilation (DA) framework to incorporate measurements of displacement of the land surface obtained using Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques into the response of geomechanical simulation models. In Northern Italy, InSAR measurement campaigns have been carried out over a depleted gas reservoir, referred to as "Lombardia", located at a depth of about 1200 m in the sedimentary basin of the Po River plain. In the last years, this reservoir has been used for underground gas storage and recovery (GSR). Because of the pore pressure periodical alternation produced by GSR, reservoir formations have undergone loading/unloading cycles, experiencing effective stress changes that have induced periodical variation of ground surface levels. Over the Lombardia reservoir, the pattern, magnitude and timing of time-laps land displacements both in the vertical and in the East-West directions have been acquired from 2003 until 2008. The availability of these data opens new pathways towards the improvement of current land subsidence modeling efforts. The DA framework presented here allows for merging, within an automated process, InSAR data into coupled reservoir-geomechanical model results. The framework relies upon Bayesian-based ensemble smoothing algorithms and has the potential to significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with compressibility vs. effective stress constitutive laws, as well as key geomechanical parameters characterizing the orthotropic behavior of the reservoir porous media and their spatial distribution. The DA framework is here applied using InSAR data collected over the "Lombardia" reservoir. The flexibility of smoothing algorithms is such that spatially distributed and possibly correlated measurement errors are accounted for in a relatively straightforward fashion, so that surface deformation data that are considered more reliable can be assigned a larger weight within the model calibration. A series of numerical simulation results are presented in order to assess the capabilities of the DA framework, its effectiveness, advantages and limitations.

A Proposal for the Maximum KIC for Use in ASME Code Flaw and Fracture Toughness Evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirk, Mark; Stevens, Gary; Erickson, Marjorie A

2011-01-01

Nonmandatory Appendices A [1] and G [2] of Section XI of the ASME Code use the KIc curve (indexed to the material reference transition temperature, RTNDT) in reactor pressure vessel (RPV) flaw evaluations, and for the purpose of establishing RPV pressure-temperature (P-T) limits. Neither of these appendices places an upper-limit on the KIc value that may be used in these assessments. Over the years, it has often been suggested by some of the members of the ASME Section XI Code committees that are responsible for maintaining Appendices A and G that there is a practical upper limit of 200 ksimore » in (220 MPa m) [4]. This upper limit is not well recognized by all users of the ASME Code, is not explicitly documented within the Code itself, and the one source known to the authors where it is defended [4] relies on data that is either in error, or is less than 220 MPa m. However, as part of the NRC/industry pressurized thermal shock (PTS) re-evaluation effort, empirical models were developed that propose common temperature dependencies for all ferritic steels operating on the upper shelf. These models relate the fracture toughness properties in the transition regime to those on the upper shelf and, combined with data for a wide variety of RPV steels and welds on which they are based, suggest that the practical upper limit of 220 MPa m exceeds the upper shelf fracture toughness of most RPV steels by a considerable amount, especially for irradiated steels. In this paper, available models and data are used to propose upper bound limits of applicability on the KIc curve for use in ASME Code, Section XI, Nonmandatory Appendices A and G evaluations that are consistent with available data for RPV steels.« less

Constraints on sea to air emissions from methane clathrates in the vicinity of Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisso, Ignacio; Vadakkepuliyambatta, Sunil; Platt, Stephen Matthew; Eckhardt, Sabine; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Silyakova, Anna; Hermansen, Ove; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Mienert, Jurgen; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Stohl, Andreas

2016-04-01

Methane stored in the seabed in the form of clathrates has the potential to be released into the atmosphere due to ongoing ocean warming. The Methane Emissions from Arctic Ocean to Atmosphere (MOCA, http://moca.nilu.no/) proje sct conducted measurement campaigns in the vicinity of Svalbard during the summers of 2014 and 2015 in collaboration with the Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate (CAGE, https://cage.uit.no/) and the MAMM (https://arcticmethane.wordpress.com) project . The extensive set of measurements includes air (BAe 146) and ship (RV Helmer Hansen) borne methane concentrations, complemented with the nearby monitoring site at Zeppelin mountain. In order to assess the atmospheric impact of emissions from seabed methane hydrates, we characterised the local and long range atmospheric transport during the aircraft campaign and different scenarios for the emission sources. We present a range of upper bounds for the CH4 emissions during the campaign period as well as the methodologies used to obtain them. The methodologies include a box model, Lagrangian transport and elementary inverse modelling. We emphasise the analysis of the aircraft data. We discuss in detail the different methodologies used for determining the upper flux bounds as well as its uncertainties and limitations. The additional information provided by the ship and station observations will be briefly mentioned.

Tephra studies and the reconstruction of Middle-to-Upper Paleolithic cultural trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'Errico, Francesco; Banks, William E.

2015-06-01

This study describes an approach which combines tephra records with archaeological and contextual data in order to propose best fit scenarios for past cultural changes and population events. With this goal in mind, we critically examine the environmental, archaeological, anthropological, and chronometric records of the Middle-to-Upper Paleolithic (MUP) Transition (45-35 ka) in Europe and identify a number of shortcomings that make it difficult to correlate and interpret current evidence with respect to historical processes. The utility and limitations of tephra records are highlighted and an heuristic strategy, designed to merge evidence from tephra and other proxies, is described. Such a strategy is used to explore the stratigraphic and chronological relationship between the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption and the cultural changes that occurred during the MUP Transition in Southern Europe. Uncertainties pertaining to the timing of this volcanic event are discussed before summarizing the stratigraphic and cultural sequences of the eleven archaeological sites (Haua Fteah, Kozarnica, Franchthi Cave, Klissoura, Golema Pesht, Cavallo, Serino, Castelcivita, Tabula Traiana, Temnata, Kostenki 14) where the CI tephra has been reliably identified, along with three sites (Uluzzo, Uluzzo C, Bernardini) where such an identification remains tentative. We conclude that if one discards as inconclusive the recent attribution of the Uluzzian to modern humans, the best fit historical scenario that stems from a critical reading of the evidence identifies the Uluzzian as the result of in-situ cultural evolution of late Mousterian populations in this region of Southern Europe. Such evolution, which entails the independent development of cultural innovations typically found in subsequent cultures of the Upper Paleolithic, would have been truncated, before the CI event, by the arrival of modern or Neanderthal-modern hybrid populations bearing the Proto-Aurignacian material culture.

A leader-follower-interactive method for regional water resources management with considering multiple water demands and eco-environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yizhong; Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; He, Li

2017-05-01

This study presents the mathematical formulation and implementations of a synergistic optimization framework based on an understanding of water availability and reliability together with the characteristics of multiple water demands. This framework simultaneously integrates a set of leader-followers-interactive objectives established by different decision makers during the synergistic optimization. The upper-level model (leader's one) determines the optimal pollutants discharge to satisfy the environmental target. The lower-level model (follower's one) accepts the dispatch requirement from the upper-level one and dominates the optimal water-allocation strategy to maximize economic benefits representing the regional authority. The complicated bi-level model significantly improves upon the conventional programming methods through the mutual influence and restriction between the upper- and lower-level decision processes, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple completing users. To solve the problem, a bi-level interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making process for measuring to what extent the constraints are met and the objective reaches its optima. The capabilities of the proposed model are illustrated through a real-world case study of water resources management system in the district of Fengtai located in Beijing, China. Feasible decisions in association with water resources allocation, wastewater emission and pollutants discharge would be sequentially generated for balancing the objectives subject to the given water-related constraints, which can enable Stakeholders to grasp the inherent conflicts and trade-offs between the environmental and economic interests. The performance of the developed bi-level model is enhanced by comparing with single-level models. Moreover, in consideration of the uncertainty in water demand and availability, sensitivity analysis and policy analysis are employed for identifying their impacts on the final decisions and improving the practical applications.

Solar System and stellar tests of a quantum-corrected gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shan-Shan; Xie, Yi

2015-09-01

The renormalization group running of the gravitational constant has a universal form and represents a possible extension of general relativity. These renormalization group effects on general relativity will cause the running of the gravitational constant, and there exists a scale of renormalization α ν , which depends on the mass of an astronomical system and needs to be determined by observations. We test renormalization group effects on general relativity and obtain the upper bounds of α ν in the low-mass scales: the Solar System and five systems of binary pulsars. Using the supplementary advances of the perihelia provided by INPOP10a (IMCCE, France) and EPM2011 (IAA RAS, Russia) ephemerides, we obtain new upper bounds on α ν in the Solar System when the Lense-Thirring effect due to the Sun's angular momentum and the uncertainty of the Sun's quadrupole moment are properly taken into account. These two factors were absent in the previous work. We find that INPOP10a yields the upper bound as α ν =(0.3 ±2.8 )×10-20 while EPM2011 gives α ν =(-2.5 ±8.3 )×10-21. Both of them are tighter than the previous result by 4 orders of magnitude. Furthermore, based on the observational data sets of five systems of binary pulsars: PSR J 0737 -3039 , PSR B 1534 +12 , PSR J 1756 -2251 , PSR B 1913 +16 , and PSR B 2127 +11 C , the upper bound is found as α ν =(-2.6 ±5.1 )×10-17. From the bounds of this work at a low-mass scale and the ones at the mass scale of galaxies, we might catch an updated glimpse of the mass dependence of α ν , and it is found that our improvement of the upper bounds in the Solar System can significantly change the possible pattern of the relation between log |α ν | and log m from a linear one to a power law, where m is the mass of an astronomical system. This suggests that |α ν | needs to be suppressed more rapidly with the decrease of the mass of low-mass systems. It also predicts that |α ν | might have an upper limit in high-mass astrophysical systems, which can be tested in the future.

An algorithm for U-Pb isotope dilution data reduction and uncertainty propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, N. M.; Bowring, J. F.; Bowring, S. A.

2011-06-01

High-precision U-Pb geochronology by isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry is integral to a variety of Earth science disciplines, but its ultimate resolving power is quantified by the uncertainties of calculated U-Pb dates. As analytical techniques have advanced, formerly small sources of uncertainty are increasingly important, and thus previous simplifications for data reduction and uncertainty propagation are no longer valid. Although notable previous efforts have treated propagation of correlated uncertainties for the U-Pb system, the equations, uncertainties, and correlations have been limited in number and subject to simplification during propagation through intermediary calculations. We derive and present a transparent U-Pb data reduction algorithm that transforms raw isotopic data and measured or assumed laboratory parameters into the isotopic ratios and dates geochronologists interpret without making assumptions about the relative size of sample components. To propagate uncertainties and their correlations, we describe, in detail, a linear algebraic algorithm that incorporates all input uncertainties and correlations without limiting or simplifying covariance terms to propagate them though intermediate calculations. Finally, a weighted mean algorithm is presented that utilizes matrix elements from the uncertainty propagation algorithm to propagate random and systematic uncertainties for data comparison between other U-Pb labs and other geochronometers. The linear uncertainty propagation algorithms are verified with Monte Carlo simulations of several typical analyses. We propose that our algorithms be considered by the community for implementation to improve the collaborative science envisioned by the EARTHTIME initiative.

Is Ozone Going Up Now?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinbrecht, W.; Froidevaux, L.; Davis, S. M.; Degenstein, D. A.; Wild, J.; Roth, C.; Kaempfer, N.; Leblanc, T.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Vigouroux, C.; Swart, D. P. J.; Querel, R.; Harris, N.; Nedoluha, G. E.

2016-12-01

The last WMO ozone assessment (WMO, 2014) concluded that observations show significant ozone increase, 3% per decade (±2% per decade, 2σ), in the upper stratosphere since 2000. At other levels, or for total ozone, increases were not found or not significant. Overall, this is consistent with expectations from model simulations, (e.g. CCMVal2, Eyring et al., 2010). These simulations indicate that declining chlorine levels and stratospheric cooling due to CO2 increase should contribute roughly equal parts to ozone increase in the upper stratosphere. Shortly after the assessment, results from the SI2N initiative (Harris et al., 2015) confirmed increasing ozone in the upper stratosphere. However, the SI2N results indicated smaller increases (+1.5% per decade) than the WMO assessment, and substantially larger uncertainties (±5% per decade, 2σ). Differences can be attributed to time period, 1998 to 2012, compared to 2000 to 2013/14 for the assessment, and to larger assumed instrumental drift uncertainties, 6% per decade, (only 1 to 2% per decade in WMO 2014, see also Hubert et al., 2016). Here, we explore how additional ground-based and satellite data since 2013, as well as new and improved records, affect ozone trends and uncertainties. The focus will be on ozone in the upper stratosphere, because this is the region where the earliest signs of beginning ozone recovery are expected. ReferencesEyring, V., et al.: Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9451-9472, doi:10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010, 2010. Harris, N. R. P., et al.: Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone - Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9965-9982, doi:10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, 2015. Hubert, D., et al.: Ground-based assessment of the bias and long-term stability of fourteen limb and occultation ozone profile data records, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2497-2534, doi:10.5194/amt-9-2497-2016, 2016. WMO 2014: Pawson, S., Steinbrecht, W. et al.: Update on global ozone: Past, present, and future, Chapter 2 in: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No. 55, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014.

Findings of the Mars Special Regions Science Analysis Group

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beaty, D.W.; Buxbaum, K.L.; Meyer, M.A.; Barlow, N.; Boynton, W.; Clark, B.; Deming, J.; Doran, P.T.; Edgett, K.; Hancock, S.; Head, J.; Hecht, M.; Hipkin, V.; Kieft, T.; Mancinelli, R.; McDonald, E.; McKay, C.; Mellon, M.; Newsom, H.; Ori, G.; Paige, D.; Schuerger, A.C.; Sogin, M.; Spry, J.A.; Steele, A.; Tanaka, K.; Voytek, M.

2006-01-01

In summary, within the upper 5 m most of Mars is either too cold or too dry to support the propagation of terrestrial life. However, there are regions that are in disequilibrium, naturally or induced, and could be classified as "special" or, if enough uncertainty exist, could not be declared as "non-special." ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Atmosphere, ocean, and land: Critical gaps in Earth system models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.; Hartley, Dana

1992-01-01

We briefly review current knowledge and pinpoint some of the major areas of uncertainty for the following fundamental processes: (1) convection, condensation nuclei, and cloud formation; (2) oceanic circulation and its coupling to the atmosphere and cryosphere; (3) land surface hydrology and hydrology-vegetation coupling; (4) biogeochemistry of greenhouse gases; and (5) upper atmospheric chemistry and circulation.

Experimental joint quantum measurements with minimum uncertainty.

PubMed

Ringbauer, Martin; Biggerstaff, Devon N; Broome, Matthew A; Fedrizzi, Alessandro; Branciard, Cyril; White, Andrew G

2014-01-17

Quantum physics constrains the accuracy of joint measurements of incompatible observables. Here we test tight measurement-uncertainty relations using single photons. We implement two independent, idealized uncertainty-estimation methods, the three-state method and the weak-measurement method, and adapt them to realistic experimental conditions. Exceptional quantum state fidelities of up to 0.999 98(6) allow us to verge upon the fundamental limits of measurement uncertainty.

TU-AB-BRB-01: Coverage Evaluation and Probabilistic Treatment Planning as a Margin Alternative

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siebers, J.

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. Themore » treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.« less

TU-AB-BRB-00: New Methods to Ensure Target Coverage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

2015-06-15

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. Themore » treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.« less

Uncertainty Quantification of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.; Tannahill, J.; Klein, R.

2013-12-01

Uncertainty in the global mean equilibrium surface warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2, as computed by a "slab ocean" configuration of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), is quantified using 1,039 perturbed-input-parameter simulations. The slab ocean configuration reduces the model's e-folding time when approaching an equilibrium state to ~5 years. This time is much less than for the full ocean configuration, consistent with the shallow depth of the upper well-mixed layer of the ocean represented by the "slab." Adoption of the slab ocean configuration requires the assumption of preset values for the convergence of ocean heat transport beneath the upper well-mixed layer. A standard procedure for choosing these values maximizes agreement with the full ocean version's simulation of the present-day climate when input parameters assume their default values. For each new set of input parameter values, we computed the change in ocean heat transport implied by a "Phase 1" model run in which sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations were set equal to present-day values. The resulting total ocean heat transport (= standard value + change implied by Phase 1 run) was then input into "Phase 2" slab ocean runs with varying values of atmospheric CO2. Our uncertainty estimate is based on Latin Hypercube sampling over expert-provided uncertainty ranges of N = 36 adjustable parameters in the atmosphere (CAM4) and sea ice (CICE4) components of CCSM4. Two-dimensional projections of our sampling distribution for the N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of input parameters indicate full coverage of the N-dimensional parameter space, including edges. We used a machine learning-based support vector regression (SVR) statistical model to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of equilibrium warming. This fitting procedure produces a PDF that is qualitatively consistent with the raw histogram of our CCSM4 results. Most of the values from the SVR statistical model are within ~0.1 K of the raw results, well below the inter-decile range inferred below. Independent validation of the fit indicates residual errors that are distributed about zero with a standard deviation of 0.17 K. Analysis of variance shows that the equilibrium warming in CCSM4 is mainly linear in parameter changes. Thus, in accord with the Central Limit Theorem of statistics, the PDF of the warming is approximately Gaussian, i.e. symmetric about its mean value (3.0 K). Since SVR allows for highly nonlinear fits, the symmetry is not an artifact of the fitting procedure. The 10-90 percentile range of the PDF is 2.6-3.4 K, consistent with earlier estimates from CCSM4 but narrower than estimates from other models, which sometimes produce a high-temperature asymmetric tail in the PDF. This work was performed under auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and was funded by LLNL's Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative (Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project 10-SI-013).

A methodology for computing uncertainty bounds of multivariable systems based on sector stability theory concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.

1992-01-01

The application of a sector-based stability theory approach to the formulation of useful uncertainty descriptions for linear, time-invariant, multivariable systems is explored. A review of basic sector properties and sector-based approach are presented first. The sector-based approach is then applied to several general forms of parameter uncertainty to investigate its advantages and limitations. The results indicate that the sector uncertainty bound can be used effectively to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the frequency response of the design model. Inherent conservatism is a potential limitation of the sector-based approach, especially for highly dependent uncertain parameters. In addition, the representation of the system dynamics can affect the amount of conservatism reflected in the sector bound. Careful application of the model can help to reduce this conservatism, however, and the solution approach has some degrees of freedom that may be further exploited to reduce the conservatism.

Upper extremity impairments in type 1 diabetes with long duration; common problems with great impact on daily life.

PubMed

Gutefeldt, Kerstin; Hedman, Christina A; Thyberg, Ingrid S M; Bachrach-Lindström, Margareta; Arnqvist, Hans J; Spångeus, Anna

2017-11-05

To investigate the prevalence, activity limitations and potential risk factors of upper extremity impairments in type 1 diabetes in comparison to controls. In a cross-sectional population-based study in the southeast of Sweden, patients with type 1 diabetes <35 years at onset, duration ≥20 years, <67 years old and matched controls were invited to answer a questionnaire on upper extremity impairments and activity limitations and to take blood samples. Seven hundred and seventy-three patients (ages 50 ± 10 years, diabetes duration 35 ± 10 years) and 708 controls (ages 54 ± 9 years) were included. Shoulder pain and stiffness, hand paraesthesia and finger impairments were common in patients with a prevalence of 28-48%, which was 2-4-folds higher than in controls. Compared to controls, the patients had more bilateral impairments, often had coexistence of several upper extremity impairments, and in the presence of impairments, reported more pronounced activity limitations. Female gender (1.72 (1.066-2.272), p = 0.014), longer duration (1.046 (1.015-1.077), p = 0.003), higher body mass index (1.08 (1.017-1.147), p = 0.013) and HbA1c (1.029 (1.008-1.05), p = 0.007) were associated with upper extremity impairments. Compared to controls, patients with type 1 diabetes have a high prevalence of upper extremity impairments, often bilateral, which are strongly associated with activity limitations. Recognising these in clinical practise is crucial, and improved preventative, therapeutic and rehabilitative interventions are needed. Implications for rehabilitation Upper extremity impairments affecting the shoulder, hand and fingers are common in patients with type 1 diabetes, the prevalence being 2-4-fold higher compared to non-diabetic persons. Patients with diabetes type 1 with upper extremity impairments have more pronounced limitations in daily activities compared to controls with similar impairments. Recognising upper extremity impairments and activity limitations are important and improved preventive, therapeutic and rehabilitation methods are needed.

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E.; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Total arsenic concentrations in Chinese children's urine by different geographic locations, ages, and genders.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuan; Wang, Beibei; Cui, Xiaoyong; Lin, Chunye; Liu, Xitao; Ma, Jin

2018-06-01

Little is known about the variation of Chinese children's exposure to arsenic by geography, age, gender, and other potential factors. The main objective of this study was to investigate the total arsenic concentration in Chinese children's urine by geographic locations, ages, and genders. In total, 259 24-h urine samples were collected from 210 2- to 12-year-old children in China and analyzed for total arsenic and creatinine concentrations. The results showed that the upper limit (upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for the 97.5 fractile) was 27.51 µg/L or 55.88 µg/g creatinine for Chinese children. The total urinary arsenic levels were significantly different for children in Guangdong, Hubei, and Gansu provinces (P < 0.05), where the upper limits were 24.29, 58.70, and 44.29 µg/g creatinine, respectively. In addition, the total urinary arsenic levels were higher for 2- to 7-year-old children than for 7- to 12-year-old children (P < 0.05; the upper limits were 59.06 and 44.29 µg/g creatinine, respectively) and higher for rural children than for urban children (P < 0.05; the upper limits were 59.06 and 50.44 µg/g creatinine, respectively). The total urinary arsenic levels for boys were not significantly different from those for girls (P > 0.05), although the level for boys (the upper limit was 59.30 µg/g) was slightly higher than that for girls (the upper limit was 58.64 µg/g creatinine). Because the total urinary arsenic concentrations are significantly different for general populations of children in different locations and age groups, the reference level of total urinary arsenic might be dependent on the geographic site and the child's age.

Mapping marine habitat suitability and uncertainty of Bayesian networks: a case study using Pacific benthic macrofauna

Treesearch

Andrea Havron; Chris Goldfinger; Sarah Henkel; Bruce G. Marcot; Chris Romsos; Lisa Gilbane

2017-01-01

Resource managers increasingly use habitat suitability map products to inform risk management and policy decisions. Modeling habitat suitability of data-poor species over large areas requires careful attention to assumptions and limitations. Resulting habitat suitability maps can harbor uncertainties from data collection and modeling processes; yet these limitations...

Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

2014-12-01

This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

Exploiting active subspaces to quantify uncertainty in the numerical simulation of the HyShot II scramjet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantine, P. G.; Emory, M.; Larsson, J.; Iaccarino, G.

2015-12-01

We present a computational analysis of the reactive flow in a hypersonic scramjet engine with focus on effects of uncertainties in the operating conditions. We employ a novel methodology based on active subspaces to characterize the effects of the input uncertainty on the scramjet performance. The active subspace identifies one-dimensional structure in the map from simulation inputs to quantity of interest that allows us to reparameterize the operating conditions; instead of seven physical parameters, we can use a single derived active variable. This dimension reduction enables otherwise infeasible uncertainty quantification, considering the simulation cost of roughly 9500 CPU-hours per run. For two values of the fuel injection rate, we use a total of 68 simulations to (i) identify the parameters that contribute the most to the variation in the output quantity of interest, (ii) estimate upper and lower bounds on the quantity of interest, (iii) classify sets of operating conditions as safe or unsafe corresponding to a threshold on the output quantity of interest, and (iv) estimate a cumulative distribution function for the quantity of interest.

Tightening the entropic uncertainty bound in the presence of quantum memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adabi, F.; Salimi, S.; Haseli, S.

2016-06-01

The uncertainty principle is a fundamental principle in quantum physics. It implies that the measurement outcomes of two incompatible observables cannot be predicted simultaneously. In quantum information theory, this principle can be expressed in terms of entropic measures. M. Berta et al. [Nat. Phys. 6, 659 (2010), 10.1038/nphys1734] have indicated that uncertainty bound can be altered by considering a particle as a quantum memory correlating with the primary particle. In this article, we obtain a lower bound for entropic uncertainty in the presence of a quantum memory by adding an additional term depending on the Holevo quantity and mutual information. We conclude that our lower bound will be tightened with respect to that of Berta et al. when the accessible information about measurements outcomes is less than the mutual information about the joint state. Some examples have been investigated for which our lower bound is tighter than Berta et al.'s lower bound. Using our lower bound, a lower bound for the entanglement of formation of bipartite quantum states has been obtained, as well as an upper bound for the regularized distillable common randomness.

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaman, Kais; McDonald, Mark; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Green, Lawrence

2010-01-01

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Measuring, Estimating, and Deciding under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Michel, Rolf

2016-03-01

The problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information and the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology is addressed. Then, this paper discusses some of the controversial aspects of the statistical foundation of the concepts of uncertainty in measurements. The basics of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement as well as of characteristic limits according to ISO 11929 are described and the needs for a revision of the latter standard are explained. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 94.304 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... specified in this part, except that the applicable FEL replaces the applicable THC+NOX and PM emission... life shall be unlimited. (m) Upper limits. The FELs for THC+NOX and PM for new engines certified for...—Category 1 Upper Limits for Tier 2 Family Emission Limits Subcategory liters/cylinder Model year 1 THC+NOX...

40 CFR 94.304 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... specified in this part, except that the applicable FEL replaces the applicable THC+NOX and PM emission... life shall be unlimited. (m) Upper limits. The FELs for THC+NOX and PM for new engines certified for...—Category 1 Upper Limits for Tier 2 Family Emission Limits Subcategory liters/cylinder Model year 1 THC+NOX...

40 CFR 94.304 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... specified in this part, except that the applicable FEL replaces the applicable THC+NOX and PM emission... life shall be unlimited. (m) Upper limits. The FELs for THC+NOX and PM for new engines certified for...—Category 1 Upper Limits for Tier 2 Family Emission Limits Subcategory liters/cylinder Model year 1 THC+NOX...

40 CFR 94.304 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... specified in this part, except that the applicable FEL replaces the applicable THC+NOX and PM emission... life shall be unlimited. (m) Upper limits. The FELs for THC+NOX and PM for new engines certified for...—Category 1 Upper Limits for Tier 2 Family Emission Limits Subcategory liters/cylinder Model year 1 THC+NOX...

40 CFR 94.304 - Compliance requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... specified in this part, except that the applicable FEL replaces the applicable THC+NOX and PM emission... life shall be unlimited. (m) Upper limits. The FELs for THC+NOX and PM for new engines certified for...—Category 1 Upper Limits for Tier 2 Family Emission Limits Subcategory liters/cylinder Model year 1 THC+NOX...

How To Better Track Effective School Indicators: The Control Chart Techniques.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coutts, Douglas

1998-01-01

Control charts are practical tools to monitor various school indicators (attendance rates, standardized test scores, grades, and graduation rates) by displaying data on the same scale over time. This article shows how principals can calculate the upper natural-process limit, lower natural-process limit, and upper control limit for attendance. (15…

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

Colorado River sediment transport: 1. Natural sediment supply limitation and the influence of Glen Canyon Dam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Vierra, L.E.

2000-01-01

Analyses of flow, sediment‐transport, bed‐topographic, and sedimentologic data suggest that before the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons was annually supply‐limited with respect to fine sediment (i.e., sand and finer material). Furthermore, these analyses suggest that the predam river in Glen Canyon was not supply‐limited to the same degree and that the degree of annual supply limitation increased near the head of Marble Canyon. The predam Colorado River in Grand Canyon displays evidence of four effects of supply limitation: (1) seasonal hysteresis in sediment concentration, (2) seasonal hysteresis in sediment grain size coupled to the seasonal hysteresis in sediment concentration, (3) production of inversely graded flood deposits, and (4∥ development or modification of a lag between the time of a flood peak and the time of either maximum or minimum (depending on reach geometry) bed elevation. Analyses of sediment budgets provide additional support for the interpretation that the predam river was annually supply‐limited with respect to fine sediment, but it was not supply‐limited with respect to fine sediment during all seasons. In the average predam year, sand would accumulate and be stored in Marble Canyon and upper Grand Canyon for 9 months of the year (from July through March) when flows were dominantly below 200–300 m3/s; this stored sand was then eroded during April through June when flows were typically higher. After closure of Glen Canyon Dam, because of the large magnitudes of the uncertainties in the sediment budget, no season of substantial sand accumulation is evident. Because most flows in the postdam river exceed 200–300 m3/s, substantial sand accumulation in the postdam river is unlikely.

Models of science-policy interaction: exploring approaches to Bisphenol A management in the EU.

PubMed

Udovyk, O

2014-07-01

This study investigated science-policy interaction models and their limitations under conditions of uncertainty. In detail, it looked at the management of the suspected endocrine-disrupting chemical Bisphenol A (BPA). Despite growing evidence that BPA is hazardous to human and environmental health, the level of scientific uncertainty is still high and, as a result, there is significant disagreement on the actual extent and type of risk. Analysis of decision-making processes at different regulatory levels (EU, Sweden, and the Swedish municipality of Gothenburg) exposed chemicals risk management and associated science-policy interaction under uncertainty. The results of the study show that chemicals management and associated science-policy interaction follow the modern model of science-policy interaction, where science is assumed to 'speak truth to policy' and highlights existing limitations of this model under conditions of uncertainty. The study not only explores alternative models (precautionary, consensus, science-policy demarcation. and extended participation) but also shows their limitations. The study concludes that all models come with their particular underlying assumptions, strengths, and limitations. At the same time, by exposing serious limitations of the modern model, the study calls for a rethinking of the relationship between science, policy, and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Informative Bayesian Type A uncertainty evaluation, especially applicable to a small number of observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M.; Shirono, K.

2017-10-01

A criticism levelled at the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is that it is based on a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian thinking. In particular, the GUM’s Type A (statistical) uncertainty evaluations are frequentist, whereas the Type B evaluations, using state-of-knowledge distributions, are Bayesian. In contrast, making the GUM fully Bayesian implies, among other things, that a conventional objective Bayesian approach to Type A uncertainty evaluation for a number n of observations leads to the impractical consequence that n must be at least equal to 4, thus presenting a difficulty for many metrologists. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of Type A uncertainty evaluation that applies for all n ≥slant 2 , as in the frequentist analysis in the current GUM. The analysis is based on assuming that the observations are drawn from a normal distribution (as in the conventional objective Bayesian analysis), but uses an informative prior based on lower and upper bounds for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the quantity under consideration. The main outcome of the analysis is a closed-form mathematical expression for the factor by which the standard deviation of the mean observation should be multiplied to calculate the required standard uncertainty. Metrological examples are used to illustrate the approach, which is straightforward to apply using a formula or look-up table.

Normal values of urine total protein- and albumin-to-creatinine ratios in term newborns.

PubMed

El Hamel, Chahrazed; Chianea, Thierry; Thon, Séverine; Lepichoux, Anne; Yardin, Catherine; Guigonis, Vincent

2017-01-01

It is important to have an accurate assessment of urinary protein when glomerulopathy or kidney injury is suspected. Currently available normal values for the neonate population have limited value, in part because they are based on small populations and obsolete creatinine assays. We have performed a prospective study with the aim to update the normal upper values of the urinary total protein-to-creatinine and albumin-to-creatinine ratios in term newborns. Urine samples were collected from 277 healthy, full-term newborns within the first 48 hours (D0-1) and between 72 and 120 h of life (D3-4). Total protein, albumin, creatinine and osmolality were measured and the upper limit of normal (upper-limit) values determined. At D0-1 and D3-4, the upper-limit values for the total protein-to-creatinine ratio were 1431 and 1205 mg/g (162 and 136 g/mol) and those for the albumin-to-creatinine ratio were 746 and 301 mg/g (84 and 34 g/mol), respectively. The upper-limit values were significantly higher at D0-1 than at D3-4 only for the albumin-to-creatinine ratio. This study determined the upper limit of normal values for urinary total protein-to-creatinine and albumin-to-creatinine ratios in the largest population of newborns studied to date. These values can therefore be considered as the most clinically relevant data currently available for the detection and diagnosis of glomerular injury in daily clinical practice in this population.

Upper limit set by causality on the tidal deformability of a neutron star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Oeveren, Eric D.; Friedman, John L.

2017-04-01

A principal goal of gravitational-wave astronomy is to constrain the neutron star equation of state (EOS) by measuring the tidal deformability of neutron stars. The tidally induced departure of the waveform from that of a point particle [or a spinless binary black hole (BBH)] increases with the stiffness of the EOS. We show that causality (the requirement that the speed of sound be less than the speed of light for a perfect fluid satisfying a one-parameter equation of state) places an upper bound on tidal deformability as a function of mass. Like the upper mass limit, the limit on deformability is obtained by using an EOS with vsound=c for high densities and matching to a low density (candidate) EOS at a matching density of order nuclear saturation density. We use these results and those of Lackey et al. [Phys. Rev. D 89, 043009 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.89.043009] to estimate the resulting upper limit on the gravitational-wave phase shift of a black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binary relative to a BBH. Even for assumptions weak enough to allow a maximum mass of 4 M⊙ (a match at nuclear saturation density to an unusually stiff low-density candidate EOS), the upper limit on dimensionless tidal deformability is stringent. It leads to a still more stringent estimated upper limit on the maximum tidally induced phase shift prior to merger. We comment in an appendix on the relation among causality, the condition vsound

Plasmonic trace sensing below the photon shot noise limit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pooser, Raphael C.; Lawrie, Benjamin J.

Plasmonic sensors are important detectors of biochemical trace compounds, but those that utilize optical readout are approaching their absolute limits of detection as defined by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in both differential intensity and phase readout. However, the use of more general minimum uncertainty states in the form of squeezed light can push the noise floor in these sensors below the shot noise limit (SNL) in one analysis variable at the expense of another. Here, we demonstrate a quantum plasmonic sensor whose noise floor is reduced below the SNL in order to perform index of refraction measurements with sensitivities unobtainablemore » with classical plasmonic sensors. The increased signal-to-noise ratio can result in faster detection of analyte concentrations that were previously lost in the noise. As a result, these benefits are the hallmarks of a sensor exploiting quantum readout fields in order to manipulate the limits of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.« less

Plasmonic trace sensing below the photon shot noise limit

DOE PAGES

Pooser, Raphael C.; Lawrie, Benjamin J.

2015-12-09

Plasmonic sensors are important detectors of biochemical trace compounds, but those that utilize optical readout are approaching their absolute limits of detection as defined by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in both differential intensity and phase readout. However, the use of more general minimum uncertainty states in the form of squeezed light can push the noise floor in these sensors below the shot noise limit (SNL) in one analysis variable at the expense of another. Here, we demonstrate a quantum plasmonic sensor whose noise floor is reduced below the SNL in order to perform index of refraction measurements with sensitivities unobtainablemore » with classical plasmonic sensors. The increased signal-to-noise ratio can result in faster detection of analyte concentrations that were previously lost in the noise. As a result, these benefits are the hallmarks of a sensor exploiting quantum readout fields in order to manipulate the limits of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.« less

Estimating the uncertainty from sampling in pollution crime investigation: The importance of metrology in the forensic interpretation of environmental data.

PubMed

Barazzetti Barbieri, Cristina; de Souza Sarkis, Jorge Eduardo

2018-07-01

The forensic interpretation of environmental analytical data is usually challenging due to the high geospatial variability of these data. The measurements' uncertainty includes contributions from the sampling and from the sample handling and preparation processes. These contributions are often disregarded in analytical techniques results' quality assurance. A pollution crime investigation case was used to carry out a methodology able to address these uncertainties in two different environmental compartments, freshwater sediments and landfill leachate. The methodology used to estimate the uncertainty was the duplicate method (that replicates predefined steps of the measurement procedure in order to assess its precision) and the parameters used to investigate the pollution were metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn) in the leachate, the suspect source, and in the sediment, the possible sink. The metal analysis results were compared to statutory limits and it was demonstrated that Cr and Ni concentrations in sediment samples exceeded the threshold levels at all sites downstream the pollution sources, considering the expanded uncertainty U of the measurements and a probability of contamination >0.975, at most sites. Cu and Zn concentrations were above the statutory limits at two sites, but the classification was inconclusive considering the uncertainties of the measurements. Metal analyses in leachate revealed that Cr concentrations were above the statutory limits with a probability of contamination >0.975 in all leachate ponds while the Cu, Ni and Zn probability of contamination was below 0.025. The results demonstrated that the estimation of the sampling uncertainty, which was the dominant component of the combined uncertainty, is required for a comprehensive interpretation of the environmental analyses results, particularly in forensic cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: NIR spectrum of NGC1705-1 (Martins+, 2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, F.; Foerster Schreiber, N. M.; Eisenhauer, F.; Lutz, D.

2012-10-01

We used adaptive-optics assisted integral field spectroscopy with SINFONI on the Very Large Telescope. We estimated the spatial extent of the cluster and extracted its K-band spectrum from which we constrained the age of the dominant stellar population. Results. Our observations have an angular resolution of about 0.11", providing an upper limit on the cluster radius of 2.85+/-0.50pc depending on the assumed distance. The K-band spectrum is dominated by strong CO absorption bandheads typical of red supergiants. Its spectral type is equivalent to a K4-5I star. Using evolutionary tracks from the Geneva and Utrecht groups, we determine an age of 12+/-6Myr. The large uncertainty is rooted in the large difference between the Geneva and Utrecht tracks in the red supergiants regime. The absence of ionized gas lines in the K-band spectrum is consistent with the absence of O and/or Wolf-Rayet stars in the cluster, as expected for the estimated age. (2 data files).

Measurement of the branching fractions of D s + → η ' X and D s + → η ' ρ + in e + e - → D s + D s -

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ablikim, M.

We study D + s decays to final states involving the η' with a 482 pb -1 data sample collected at √s = 4.009 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. We measure the branching fractions Β(D + s → η'Χ) = (8.8 ± 1.8 ± 0.5)% and Β(D + s → η'ρ +) = (5.8 ± 1.4 ± 0.4)% where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. In addition, we estimate an upper limit on the non-resonant branching ratio Β(D + s → η'π +π 0) < 5.1% at the 90% confidence level. Lastly,more » our results are consistent with CLEO's recent measurements and help to resolve the disagreement between the theoretical prediction and CLEO's previous measurement of Β(D + s → η'ρ +).« less

ALP conversion and the soft X-ray excess in the outskirts of the Coma cluster

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraljic, David; Rummel, Markus; Conlon, Joseph P., E-mail: David.Kraljic@physics.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: Markus.Rummel@physics.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: j.conlon1@physics.ox.ac.uk

2015-01-01

It was recently found that the soft X-ray excess in the center of the Coma cluster can be fitted by conversion of axion-like-particles (ALPs) of a cosmic axion background (CAB) to photons. We extend this analysis to the outskirts of Coma, including regions up to 5 Mpc from the center of the cluster. We extract the excess soft X-ray flux from ROSAT All-Sky Survey data and compare it to the expected flux from ALP to photon conversion of a CAB. The soft X-ray excess both in the center and the outskirts of Coma can be simultaneously fitted by ALP tomore » photon conversion of a CAB. Given the uncertainties of the cluster magnetic field in the outskirts we constrain the parameter space of the CAB. In particular, an upper limit on the CAB mean energy and a range of allowed ALP-photon couplings are derived.« less

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

The millimeter wave spectrum of methyl cyanate: a laboratory study and astronomical search in space^.

PubMed

Kolesniková, L; Alonso, J L; Bermúdez, C; Alonso, E R; Tercero, B; Cernicharo, J; Guillemin, J-C

2016-07-01

The recent discovery of methyl isocyanate (CH 3 NCO) in Sgr B2(N) and Orion KL makes methyl cyanate (CH 3 OCN) a potential molecule in the interstellar medium. The aim of this work is to fulfill the first requirement for its unequivocal identification in space, i.e. the availability of transition frequencies with high accuracy. The room-temperature rotational spectrum of methyl cyanate was recorded in the millimeter wave domain from 130 to 350 GHz. All rotational transitions revealed A - E splitting owing to methyl internal rotation and were globally analyzed using the ERHAM program. The data set for the ground torsional state of methyl cyanate exceeds 700 transitions within J″ = 10 - 35 and [Formula: see text] and newly derived spectroscopic constants reproduce the spectrum close to the experimental uncertainty. Spectral features of methyl cyanate were then searched for in Orion KL, Sgr B2(N), B1-b, and TMC-1 molecular clouds. Upper limits to the column density of methyl cyanate are provided.

A new approach for solving seismic tomography problems and assessing the uncertainty through the use of graph theory and direct methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogiatzis, P.; Ishii, M.; Davis, T. A.

2016-12-01

Seismic tomography inverse problems are among the largest high-dimensional parameter estimation tasks in Earth science. We show how combinatorics and graph theory can be used to analyze the structure of such problems, and to effectively decompose them into smaller ones that can be solved efficiently by means of the least squares method. In combination with recent high performance direct sparse algorithms, this reduction in dimensionality allows for an efficient computation of the model resolution and covariance matrices using limited resources. Furthermore, we show that a new sparse singular value decomposition method can be used to obtain the complete spectrum of the singular values. This procedure provides the means for more objective regularization and further dimensionality reduction of the problem. We apply this methodology to a moderate size, non-linear seismic tomography problem to image the structure of the crust and the upper mantle beneath Japan using local deep earthquakes recorded by the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network stations.

User Manual for Whisper-1.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Forrest B.; Rising, Michael Evan; Alwin, Jennifer Louise

2017-01-26

Whisper is a statistical analysis package developed in 2014 to support nuclear criticality safety (NCS) validation [1-3]. It uses the sensitivity profile data for an application as computed by MCNP6 [4-6] along with covariance files [7,8] for the nuclear data to determine a baseline upper-subcritical-limit (USL) for the application. Whisper version 1.0 was first developed and used at LANL in 2014 [3]. During 2015- 2016, Whisper was updated to version 1.1 and is to be included with the upcoming release of MCNP6.2. This document describes the user input and options for running whisper-1.1, including 2 perl utility scripts that simplifymore » ordinary NCS work, whisper_mcnp.pl and whisper_usl.pl. For many detailed references on the theory, applications, nuclear data & covariances, SQA, verification-validation, adjointbased methods for sensitivity-uncertainty analysis, and more – see the Whisper – NCS Validation section of the MCNP Reference Collection at mcnp.lanl.gov. There are currently over 50 Whisper reference documents available.« less

Are Evidence Standards Different for Genomic- vs. Clinical-Based Precision Medicine? A Quantitative Analysis of Individualized Warfarin Therapy.

PubMed

Dhanda, D S; Guzauskas, G F; Carlson, J J; Basu, A; Veenstra, D L

2017-11-01

Evidence requirements for implementation of precision medicine (PM), whether informed by genomic or clinical data, are not well defined. Evidence requirements are driven by uncertainty and its attendant consequences; these aspects can be quantified by a novel technique in health economics: value of information analysis (VOI). We utilized VOI analysis to compare the evidence levels over time for warfarin dosing based on pharmacogenomic vs. amiodarone-warfarin drug-drug interaction information. The primary outcome was the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which is an estimate of the upper limit of the societal value of conducting future research. Over the past decade, the EVPI for the pharmacogenomic strategy decreased from $1,550 to $140 vs. $1,220 to $280 per patient for the drug-interaction strategy. Evidence levels thus appear to be higher for pharmacogenomic-guided vs. drug-interaction-guided warfarin dosing. Clinical guidelines and reimbursement policies for warfarin PM could be informed by these findings. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Measurement of the branching fractions of D s + → η ' X and D s + → η ' ρ + in e + e - → D s + D s -

DOE PAGES

Ablikim, M.

2015-09-30

We study D + s decays to final states involving the η' with a 482 pb -1 data sample collected at √s = 4.009 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. We measure the branching fractions Β(D + s → η'Χ) = (8.8 ± 1.8 ± 0.5)% and Β(D + s → η'ρ +) = (5.8 ± 1.4 ± 0.4)% where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. In addition, we estimate an upper limit on the non-resonant branching ratio Β(D + s → η'π +π 0) < 5.1% at the 90% confidence level. Lastly,more » our results are consistent with CLEO's recent measurements and help to resolve the disagreement between the theoretical prediction and CLEO's previous measurement of Β(D + s → η'ρ +).« less

The impact of nonuniform sampling on stratospheric ozone trends derived from occultation instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damadeo, Robert P.; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Walker, Kaley A.

2018-01-01

This paper applies a recently developed technique for deriving long-term trends in ozone from sparsely sampled data sets to multiple occultation instruments simultaneously without the need for homogenization. The technique can compensate for the nonuniform temporal, spatial, and diurnal sampling of the different instruments and can also be used to account for biases and drifts between instruments. These problems have been noted in recent international assessments as being a primary source of uncertainty that clouds the significance of derived trends. Results show potential recovery trends of ˜ 2-3 % decade-1 in the upper stratosphere at midlatitudes, which are similar to other studies, and also how sampling biases present in these data sets can create differences in derived recovery trends of up to ˜ 1 % decade-1 if not properly accounted for. Limitations inherent to all techniques (e.g., relative instrument drifts) and their impacts (e.g., trend differences up to ˜ 2 % decade-1) are also described and a potential path forward towards resolution is presented.

Effects of high CO2 levels on surface temperature and atmospheric oxidation state of the early earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasting, J. F.; Pollack, J. B.; Crisp, D.

1984-01-01

One-dimensional radiative and photochemical models are used to determine how much CO2 must have been present to maintain a temperate early climate and to examine the consequences that are implied for the controls on atmospheric oxidation state. It is shown that CO2 concentrations of the order of 1000 PAL are required to keep the average surface temperature close to the present value, if albedo changes and heating by reduced greenhouse gases were relatively unimportant. The oxidation state of such a high-CO2, prebiotic atmosphere should have been largely determined by the balance between the H2O2 rainout rate and the rate at which hydrogen escaped to space, with only a weak dependence on the volcanic outgassing rate or on other speculative sources of H2. The implied upper limit on the ground-level O2 mixing ratio is approximately 10 to the -11th and is subject to less uncertainty than the results of previous models.

Reconstruction of the energy and depth of maximum of cosmic-ray air showers from LOPES radio measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, W. D.; Arteaga-Velazquez, J. C.; Bähren, L.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Biermann, P. L.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Cantoni, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Falcke, H.; Fuchs, B.; Fuhrmann, D.; Gemmeke, H.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horneffer, A.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Isar, P. G.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kang, D.; Krömer, O.; Kuijpers, J.; Link, K.; Łuczak, P.; Ludwig, M.; Mathes, H. J.; Melissas, M.; Morello, C.; Oehlschläger, J.; Palmieri, N.; Pierog, T.; Rautenberg, J.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Rühle, C.; Saftoiu, A.; Schieler, H.; Schmidt, A.; Schröder, F. G.; Sima, O.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.; Zensus, J. A.; Lopes Collaboration

2014-09-01

LOPES is a digital radio interferometer located at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, that measures radio emission from extensive air showers at MHz frequencies in coincidence with KASCADE-Grande. In this article, we explore a method (slope method) that leverages the slope of the measured radio lateral distribution to reconstruct crucial attributes of primary cosmic rays. First, we present an investigation of the method on the basis of pure simulations. Second, we directly apply the slope method to LOPES measurements. Applying the slope method to simulations, we obtain uncertainties on the reconstruction of energy and depth of shower maximum (Xmax) of 13% and 50 g /cm2, respectively. Applying it to LOPES measurements, we are able to reconstruct energy and Xmax of individual events with upper limits on the precision of 20%-25% for the primary energy and 95 g /cm2 for Xmax, despite strong human-made noise at the LOPES site.

First Observation of the Rare Purely Baryonic Decay B^{0}→pp[over ¯].

PubMed

Aaij, R; Adeva, B; Adinolfi, M; Ajaltouni, Z; Akar, S; Albrecht, J; Alessio, F; Alexander, M; Alfonso Albero, A; Ali, S; Alkhazov, G; Alvarez Cartelle, P; Alves, A A; Amato, S; Amerio, S; Amhis, Y; An, L; Anderlini, L; Andreassi, G; Andreotti, M; Andrews, J E; Appleby, R B; Archilli, F; d'Argent, P; Arnau Romeu, J; Artamonov, A; Artuso, M; Aslanides, E; Auriemma, G; Baalouch, M; Babuschkin, I; Bachmann, S; Back, J J; Badalov, A; Baesso, C; Baker, S; Balagura, V; Baldini, W; Baranov, A; Barlow, R J; Barschel, C; Barsuk, S; Barter, W; Baryshnikov, F; Batozskaya, V; Battista, V; Bay, A; Beaucourt, L; Beddow, J; Bedeschi, F; Bediaga, I; Beiter, A; Bel, L J; Beliy, N; Bellee, V; Belloli, N; Belous, K; Belyaev, I; Ben-Haim, E; Bencivenni, G; Benson, S; Beranek, S; Berezhnoy, A; Bernet, R; Berninghoff, D; Bertholet, E; Bertolin, A; Betancourt, C; Betti, F; Bettler, M-O; van Beuzekom, M; Bezshyiko, Ia; Bifani, S; Billoir, P; Birnkraut, A; Bitadze, A; Bizzeti, A; Bjørn, M; Blake, T; Blanc, F; Blouw, J; Blusk, S; Bocci, V; Boettcher, T; Bondar, A; Bondar, N; Bonivento, W; Bordyuzhin, I; Borgheresi, A; Borghi, S; Borisyak, M; Borsato, M; Bossu, F; Boubdir, M; Bowcock, T J V; Bowen, E; Bozzi, C; Braun, S; Britton, T; Brodzicka, J; Brundu, D; Buchanan, E; Burr, C; Bursche, A; Buytaert, J; Byczynski, W; Cadeddu, S; Cai, H; Calabrese, R; Calladine, R; Calvi, M; Calvo Gomez, M; Camboni, A; Campana, P; Campora Perez, D H; Capriotti, L; Carbone, A; Carboni, G; Cardinale, R; Cardini, A; Carniti, P; Carson, L; Carvalho Akiba, K; Casse, G; Cassina, L; Castillo Garcia, L; Cattaneo, M; Cavallero, G; Cenci, R; Chamont, D; Charles, M; Charpentier, Ph; Chatzikonstantinidis, G; Chefdeville, M; Chen, S; Cheung, S F; Chitic, S-G; Chobanova, V; Chrzaszcz, M; Chubykin, A; Ciambrone, P; Cid Vidal, X; Ciezarek, G; Clarke, P E L; Clemencic, M; Cliff, H V; Closier, J; Cogan, J; Cogneras, E; Cogoni, V; Cojocariu, L; Collins, P; Colombo, T; Comerma-Montells, A; Contu, A; Cook, A; Coombs, G; Coquereau, S; Corti, G; Corvo, M; Costa Sobral, C M; Couturier, B; Cowan, G A; Craik, D C; Crocombe, A; Cruz Torres, M; Currie, R; D'Ambrosio, C; Da Cunha Marinho, F; Dall'Occo, E; Dalseno, J; Davis, A; De Aguiar Francisco, O; De Capua, S; De Cian, M; De Miranda, J M; De Paula, L; De Serio, M; De Simone, P; Dean, C T; Decamp, D; Del Buono, L; Dembinski, H-P; Demmer, M; Dendek, A; Derkach, D; Deschamps, O; Dettori, F; Dey, B; Di Canto, A; Di Nezza, P; Dijkstra, H; Dordei, F; Dorigo, M; Dosil Suárez, A; Douglas, L; Dovbnya, A; Dreimanis, K; Dufour, L; Dujany, G; Durante, P; Dzhelyadin, R; Dziewiecki, M; Dziurda, A; Dzyuba, A; Easo, S; Ebert, M; Egede, U; Egorychev, V; Eidelman, S; Eisenhardt, S; Eitschberger, U; Ekelhof, R; Eklund, L; Ely, S; Esen, S; Evans, H M; Evans, T; Falabella, A; Farley, N; Farry, S; Fazzini, D; Federici, L; Ferguson, D; Fernandez, G; Fernandez Declara, P; Fernandez Prieto, A; Ferrari, F; Ferreira Rodrigues, F; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Filippov, S; Fini, R A; Fiore, M; Fiorini, M; Firlej, M; Fitzpatrick, C; 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He, J; Hecker, M; Heinicke, K; Heister, A; Hennessy, K; Henrard, P; Henry, L; van Herwijnen, E; Heß, M; Hicheur, A; Hill, D; Hombach, C; Hopchev, P H; Huard, Z C; Hulsbergen, W; Humair, T; Hushchyn, M; Hutchcroft, D; Ibis, P; Idzik, M; Ilten, P; Jacobsson, R; Jalocha, J; Jans, E; Jawahery, A; Jiang, F; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Joram, C; Jost, B; Jurik, N; Kandybei, S; Karacson, M; Kariuki, J M; Karodia, S; Kazeev, N; Kecke, M; Kelsey, M; Kenzie, M; Ketel, T; Khairullin, E; Khanji, B; Khurewathanakul, C; Kirn, T; Klaver, S; Klimaszewski, K; Klimkovich, T; Koliiev, S; Kolpin, M; Komarov, I; Kopecna, R; Koppenburg, P; Kosmyntseva, A; Kotriakhova, S; Kozeiha, M; Kravchuk, L; Kreps, M; Krokovny, P; Kruse, F; Krzemien, W; Kucewicz, W; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kuonen, A K; Kurek, K; Kvaratskheliya, T; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Lefèvre, R; Lemaitre, F; Lemos Cid, E; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Leverington, B; Li, P-R; Li, T; Li, Y; Li, Z; Likhomanenko, T; Lindner, R; Lionetto, F; Lisovskyi, V; Liu, X; Loh, D; Loi, A; Longstaff, I; Lopes, J H; Lucchesi, D; Lucio Martinez, M; Luo, H; Lupato, A; Luppi, E; Lupton, O; Lusiani, A; Lyu, X; Machefert, F; Maciuc, F; Macko, V; Mackowiak, P; Maddrell-Mander, S; Maev, O; Maguire, K; Maisuzenko, D; Majewski, M W; Malde, S; Malinin, A; Maltsev, T; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Manning, P; Marangotto, D; Maratas, J; Marchand, J F; Marconi, U; Marin Benito, C; Marinangeli, M; Marino, P; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martin, M; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Martinez Vidal, F; Martins Tostes, D; Massacrier, L M; Massafferri, A; Matev, R; Mathad, A; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Mauri, A; Maurice, E; Maurin, B; Mazurov, A; McCann, M; McNab, A; McNulty, R; Mead, J V; Meadows, B; Meaux, C; Meier, F; Meinert, N; Melnychuk, D; Merk, M; Merli, A; Michielin, E; Milanes, D A; Millard, E; Minard, M-N; Minzoni, L; Mitzel, D S; Mogini, A; Molina Rodriguez, J; Mombacher, T; 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2017-12-08

The first observation of the decay of a B^{0} meson to a purely baryonic final state, B^{0}→pp[over ¯], is reported. The proton-proton collision data sample used was collected with the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 3.0  fb^{-1}. The branching fraction is determined to be B(B^{0}→pp[over ¯])=(1.25±0.27±0.18)×10^{-8}, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The decay mode B^{0}→pp[over ¯] is the rarest decay of the B^{0} meson observed to date. The decay B_{s}^{0}→pp[over ¯] is also investigated. No signal is seen and the upper limit B(B_{s}^{0}→pp[over ¯])<1.5×10^{-8} at 90% confidence level is set on the branching fraction.

First Observation of the Rare Purely Baryonic Decay B0→p p ¯

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Alfonso Albero, A.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Andreassi, G.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Arnau Romeu, J.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Babuschkin, I.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baker, S.; Balagura, V.; Baldini, W.; Baranov, A.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Baryshnikov, F.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Beiter, A.; Bel, L. J.; Beliy, N.; Bellee, V.; Belloli, N.; Belous, K.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Beranek, S.; Berezhnoy, A.; Bernet, R.; Berninghoff, D.; Bertholet, E.; Bertolin, A.; Betancourt, C.; Betti, F.; Bettler, M.-O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bezshyiko, Ia.; Bifani, S.; Billoir, P.; Birnkraut, A.; Bitadze, A.; Bizzeti, A.; Bjørn, M.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blouw, J.; Blusk, S.; Bocci, V.; Boettcher, T.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bonivento, W.; Bordyuzhin, I.; Borgheresi, A.; Borghi, S.; Borisyak, M.; Borsato, M.; Bossu, F.; Boubdir, M.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Bowen, E.; Bozzi, C.; Braun, S.; Britton, T.; Brodzicka, J.; Brundu, D.; Buchanan, E.; Burr, C.; Bursche, A.; Buytaert, J.; Byczynski, W.; Cadeddu, S.; Cai, H.; Calabrese, R.; Calladine, R.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Camboni, A.; Campana, P.; Campora Perez, D. H.; Capriotti, L.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carniti, P.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Cassina, L.; Castillo Garcia, L.; Cattaneo, M.; Cavallero, G.; Cenci, R.; Chamont, D.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chatzikonstantinidis, G.; Chefdeville, M.; Chen, S.; Cheung, S. F.; Chitic, S.-G.; Chobanova, V.; Chrzaszcz, M.; Chubykin, A.; Ciambrone, P.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P. E. L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H. V.; Closier, J.; Cogan, J.; Cogneras, E.; Cogoni, V.; Cojocariu, L.; Collins, P.; Colombo, T.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Contu, A.; Cook, A.; Coombs, G.; Coquereau, S.; Corti, G.; Corvo, M.; Costa Sobral, C. M.; Couturier, B.; Cowan, G. A.; Craik, D. C.; Crocombe, A.; Cruz Torres, M.; Currie, R.; D'Ambrosio, C.; Da Cunha Marinho, F.; Dall'Occo, E.; Dalseno, J.; Davis, A.; De Aguiar Francisco, O.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Miranda, J. M.; De Paula, L.; De Serio, M.; De Simone, P.; Dean, C. T.; Decamp, D.; Del Buono, L.; Dembinski, H.-P.; Demmer, M.; Dendek, A.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Dey, B.; Di Canto, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dijkstra, H.; Dordei, F.; Dorigo, M.; Dosil Suárez, A.; Douglas, L.; Dovbnya, A.; Dreimanis, K.; Dufour, L.; Dujany, G.; Durante, P.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziewiecki, M.; Dziurda, A.; Dzyuba, A.; Easo, S.; Ebert, M.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; Eisenhardt, S.; Eitschberger, U.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; Ely, S.; Esen, S.; Evans, H. M.; Evans, T.; Falabella, A.; Farley, N.; Farry, S.; Fazzini, D.; Federici, L.; Ferguson, D.; Fernandez, G.; Fernandez Declara, P.; Fernandez Prieto, A.; Ferrari, F.; Ferreira Rodrigues, F.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fini, R. A.; Fiore, M.; Fiorini, M.; Firlej, M.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fiutowski, T.; Fleuret, F.; Fohl, K.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forshaw, D. C.; Forty, R.; Franco Lima, V.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Fu, J.; Funk, W.; Furfaro, E.; Färber, C.; Gabriel, E.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gallorini, S.; Gambetta, S.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; Garcia Martin, L. M.; García Pardiñas, J.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Garsed, P. J.; Gascon, D.; Gaspar, C.; Gavardi, L.; Gazzoni, G.; Gerick, D.; Gersabeck, E.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gianı, S.; Gibson, V.; Girard, O. G.; Giubega, L.; Gizdov, K.; Gligorov, V. V.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gorelov, I. V.; Gotti, C.; Govorkova, E.; Grabowski, J. P.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L. A.; Graugés, E.; Graverini, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greim, R.; Griffith, P.; Grillo, L.; Gruber, L.; Gruberg Cazon, B. R.; Grünberg, O.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Göbel, C.; Hadavizadeh, T.; Hadjivasiliou, C.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S. C.; Hamilton, B.; Han, X.; Hancock, T. H.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harnew, N.; Harnew, S. T.; Harrison, J.; Hasse, C.; Hatch, M.; He, J.; Hecker, M.; Heinicke, K.; Heister, A.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Henry, L.; van Herwijnen, E.; Heß, M.; Hicheur, A.; Hill, D.; Hombach, C.; Hopchev, P. H.; Huard, Z. C.; Hulsbergen, W.; Humair, T.; Hushchyn, M.; Hutchcroft, D.; Ibis, P.; Idzik, M.; Ilten, P.; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, J.; Jans, E.; Jawahery, A.; Jiang, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C. R.; Joram, C.; Jost, B.; Jurik, N.; Kandybei, S.; Karacson, M.; Kariuki, J. M.; Karodia, S.; Kazeev, N.; Kecke, M.; Kelsey, M.; Kenzie, M.; Ketel, T.; Khairullin, E.; Khanji, B.; Khurewathanakul, C.; Kirn, T.; Klaver, S.; Klimaszewski, K.; Klimkovich, T.; Koliiev, S.; Kolpin, M.; Komarov, I.; Kopecna, R.; Koppenburg, P.; Kosmyntseva, A.; Kotriakhova, S.; Kozeiha, M.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreps, M.; Krokovny, P.; Kruse, F.; Krzemien, W.; Kucewicz, W.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Kuonen, A. K.; Kurek, K.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; Leflat, A.; Lefrançois, J.; Lefèvre, R.; Lemaitre, F.; Lemos Cid, E.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Leverington, B.; Li, P.-R.; Li, T.; Li, Y.; Li, Z.; Likhomanenko, T.; Lindner, R.; Lionetto, F.; Lisovskyi, V.; Liu, X.; Loh, D.; Loi, A.; Longstaff, I.; Lopes, J. H.; Lucchesi, D.; Lucio Martinez, M.; Luo, H.; Lupato, A.; Luppi, E.; Lupton, O.; Lusiani, A.; Lyu, X.; Machefert, F.; Maciuc, F.; Macko, V.; Mackowiak, P.; Maddrell-Mander, S.; Maev, O.; Maguire, K.; Maisuzenko, D.; Majewski, M. W.; Malde, S.; Malinin, A.; Maltsev, T.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Manning, P.; Marangotto, D.; Maratas, J.; Marchand, J. F.; Marconi, U.; Marin Benito, C.; Marinangeli, M.; Marino, P.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martin, M.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez Santos, D.; Martinez Vidal, F.; Martins Tostes, D.; Massacrier, L. M.; Massafferri, A.; Matev, R.; Mathad, A.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Mauri, A.; Maurice, E.; Maurin, B.; Mazurov, A.; McCann, M.; McNab, A.; McNulty, R.; Mead, J. V.; Meadows, B.; Meaux, C.; Meier, F.; Meinert, N.; Melnychuk, D.; Merk, M.; Merli, A.; Michielin, E.; Milanes, D. A.; Millard, E.; Minard, M.-N.; Minzoni, L.; Mitzel, D. S.; Mogini, A.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Mombacher, T.; Monroy, I. A.; Monteil, S.; Morandin, M.; Morello, M. J.; Morgunova, O.; Moron, J.; Morris, A. B.; Mountain, R.; Muheim, F.; Mulder, M.; Müller, D.; Müller, J.; Müller, K.; Müller, V.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nandi, A.; Nasteva, I.; Needham, M.; Neri, N.; Neubert, S.; Neufeld, N.; Neuner, M.; Nguyen, T. D.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Nieswand, S.; Niet, R.; Nikitin, N.; Nikodem, T.; Nogay, A.; O'Hanlon, D. P.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Ogilvy, S.; Oldeman, R.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Ossowska, A.; Otalora Goicochea, J. M.; Owen, P.; Oyanguren, A.; Pais, P. R.; Palano, A.; Palutan, M.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Pappalardo, L. L.; Parker, W.; Parkes, C.; Passaleva, G.; Pastore, A.; Patel, M.; Patrignani, C.; Pearce, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Perret, P.; Pescatore, L.; Petridis, K.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, A.; Petruzzo, M.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pikies, M.; Pinci, D.; Pistone, A.; Piucci, A.; Placinta, V.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Polci, F.; Poli Lener, M.; Poluektov, A.; Polyakov, I.; Polycarpo, E.; Pomery, G. J.; Ponce, S.; Popov, A.; Popov, D.; Poslavskii, S.; Potterat, C.; Price, E.; Prisciandaro, J.; Prouve, C.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Pullen, H.; Punzi, G.; Qian, W.; Quagliani, R.; Quintana, B.; Rachwal, B.; Rademacker, J. H.; Rama, M.; Ramos Pernas, M.; Rangel, M. S.; Raniuk, I.; Ratnikov, F.; Raven, G.; Ravonel Salzgeber, M.; Reboud, M.; Redi, F.; Reichert, S.; dos Reis, A. C.; Remon Alepuz, C.; Renaudin, V.; Ricciardi, S.; Richards, S.; Rihl, M.; Rinnert, K.; Rives Molina, V.; Robbe, P.; Robert, A.; Rodrigues, A. B.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodriguez Lopez, J. A.; Rodriguez Perez, P.; Rogozhnikov, A.; Roiser, S.; Rollings, A.; Romanovskiy, V.; Romero Vidal, A.; Ronayne, J. W.; Rotondo, M.; Rudolph, M. S.; Ruf, T.; Ruiz Valls, P.; Ruiz Vidal, J.; Saborido Silva, J. J.; Sadykhov, E.; Sagidova, N.; Saitta, B.; Salustino Guimaraes, V.; Sanchez Mayordomo, C.; Sanmartin Sedes, B.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santimaria, M.; Santovetti, E.; Sarpis, G.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Saunders, D. M.; Savrina, D.; Schael, S.; Schellenberg, M.; Schiller, M.; Schindler, H.; Schlupp, M.; Schmelling, M.; Schmelzer, T.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schreiner, H. F.; Schubert, K.; Schubiger, M.; Schune, M.-H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Semennikov, A.; Sepulveda, E. S.; Sergi, A.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Sestini, L.; Seyfert, P.; Shapkin, M.; Shapoval, I.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, V.; Siddi, B. G.; Silva Coutinho, R.; Silva de Oliveira, L.; Simi, G.; Simone, S.; Sirendi, M.; Skidmore, N.; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, E.; Smith, I. T.; Smith, J.; Smith, M.; Soares Lavra, l.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Soler, F. J. P.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Spradlin, P.; Sridharan, S.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, M.; Stahl, S.; Stefko, P.; Stefkova, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stemmle, S.; Stenyakin, O.; Stepanova, M.; Stevens, H.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Stracka, S.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Sun, J.; Sun, L.; Sutcliffe, W.; Swientek, K.; Syropoulos, V.; Szczekowski, M.; Szumlak, T.; Szymanski, M.; T'Jampens, S.; Tayduganov, A.; Tekampe, T.; Tellarini, G.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tilley, M. J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Tolk, S.; Tomassetti, L.; Tonelli, D.; Toriello, F.; Tourinho Jadallah Aoude, R.; Tournefier, E.; Traill, M.; Tran, M. T.; Tresch, M.; Trisovic, A.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tsopelas, P.; Tully, A.; Tuning, N.; Ukleja, A.; Usachov, A.; Ustyuzhanin, A.; Uwer, U.; Vacca, C.; Vagner, A.; Vagnoni, V.; Valassi, A.; Valat, S.; Valenti, G.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vecchi, S.; van Veghel, M.; Velthuis, J. J.; Veltri, M.; Veneziano, G.; Venkateswaran, A.; Verlage, T. A.; Vernet, M.; Vesterinen, M.; Viana Barbosa, J. V.; Viaud, B.; Vieira, D.; Vieites Diaz, M.; Viemann, H.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Vitti, M.; Volkov, V.; Vollhardt, A.; Voneki, B.; Vorobyev, A.; Vorobyev, V.; Voß, C.; de Vries, J. A.; Vázquez Sierra, C.; Waldi, R.; Wallace, C.; Wallace, R.; Walsh, J.; Wang, J.; Ward, D. R.; Wark, H. M.; Watson, N. K.; Websdale, D.; Weiden, A.; Whitehead, M.; Wicht, J.; Wilkinson, G.; Wilkinson, M.; Williams, M.; Williams, M. P.; Williams, M.; Williams, T.; Wilson, F. F.; Wimberley, J.; Winn, M.; Wishahi, J.; Wislicki, W.; Witek, M.; Wormser, G.; Wotton, S. A.; Wraight, K.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xu, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Yin, H.; Yu, J.; Yuan, X.; Yushchenko, O.; Zarebski, K. A.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zheng, Y.; Zhu, X.; Zhukov, V.; Zonneveld, J. B.; Zucchelli, S.; LHCb Collaboration

2017-12-01

The first observation of the decay of a B0 meson to a purely baryonic final state, B0→p p ¯ , is reported. The proton-proton collision data sample used was collected with the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb-1. The branching fraction is determined to be B (B0→p p ¯ )=(1.25 ±0.27 ±0.18 )×10-8 , where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The decay mode B0→p p ¯ is the rarest decay of the B0 meson observed to date. The decay Bs0→p p ¯ is also investigated. No signal is seen and the upper limit B (Bs0→p p ¯ )<1.5 ×10-8 at 90% confidence level is set on the branching fraction.

Measurement of the cosmic optical background using the long range reconnaissance imager on New Horizons

PubMed Central

Zemcov, Michael; Immel, Poppy; Nguyen, Chi; Cooray, Asantha; Lisse, Carey M.; Poppe, Andrew R.

2017-01-01

The cosmic optical background is an important observable that constrains energy production in stars and more exotic physical processes in the universe, and provides a crucial cosmological benchmark against which to judge theories of structure formation. Measurement of the absolute brightness of this background is complicated by local foregrounds like the Earth's atmosphere and sunlight reflected from local interplanetary dust, and large discrepancies in the inferred brightness of the optical background have resulted. Observations from probes far from the Earth are not affected by these bright foregrounds. Here we analyse the data from the Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) instrument on NASA's New Horizons mission acquired during cruise phase outside the orbit of Jupiter, and find a statistical upper limit on the optical background's brightness similar to the integrated light from galaxies. We conclude that a carefully performed survey with LORRI could yield uncertainties comparable to those from galaxy counting measurements. PMID:28397781

Mass-radius relationships and constraints on the composition of Pluto

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, M. J.; Lewis, J. S.

1980-01-01

With the new upper limit of Pluto's mass, an upper limit for Pluto's density of 1.74 g/cu cm has been found. Assuming Pluto to be 100% methane, available methane density data can be used to set a lower limit of 0.53 g/cu cm on Pluto's density, thus placing an absolute upper limit of 1909 km on the radius and a lower limit of 0.32 on the albedo. The results of 280 computer models covering a wide range of composition ratios of rock, water ice, and methane ice are reported. Limits are placed on Pluto's silicate content, and a simple spacecraft method for determining Pluto's water content from its density and moment of inertia is given. The low thermal conductivity and strength of solid methane suggest rapid solid-state convection in Pluto's methane layer.

Conclusions on measurement uncertainty in microbiology.

PubMed

Forster, Lynne I

2009-01-01

Since its first issue in 1999, testing laboratories wishing to comply with all the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025 have been collecting data for estimating uncertainty of measurement for quantitative determinations. In the microbiological field of testing, some debate has arisen as to whether uncertainty needs to be estimated for each method performed in the laboratory for each type of sample matrix tested. Queries also arise concerning the estimation of uncertainty when plate/membrane filter colony counts are below recommended method counting range limits. A selection of water samples (with low to high contamination) was tested in replicate with the associated uncertainty of measurement being estimated from the analytical results obtained. The analyses performed on the water samples included total coliforms, fecal coliforms, fecal streptococci by membrane filtration, and heterotrophic plate counts by the pour plate technique. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were > or =20, uncertainty estimates at a 95% confidence level were very similar for the methods, being estimated as 0.13, 0.14, 0.14, and 0.12, respectively. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were <20, estimated uncertainty values for each sample showed close agreement with published confidence limits established using a Poisson distribution approach.

Improved Limit on the Rate of the Decay K+ --> π+μ+e-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appel, R.; Atoyan, G. S.; Bassalleck, B.; Bergman, D. R.; Brown, D. N.; Cheung, N.; Dhawan, S.; Do, H.; Egger, J.; Eilerts, S.; Felder, C.; Fischer, H.; Gach, M.; Herold, W.; Issakov, V. V.; Kaspar, H.; Kraus, D. E.; Lazarus, D. M.; Leipuner, L.; Lichard, P.; Lowe, J.; Lozano, J.; Ma, H.; Majid, W.; Menzel, W.; Pislak, S.; Poblaguev, A. A.; Postoev, V. E.; Proskurjakov, A. L.; Rehak, P.; Robmann, P.; Sher, A.; Thompson, J. A.; Truöl, P.; Weyer, H.; Zeller, M. E.

2000-09-01

We report results of a search for the lepton-family number violating decay K+-->π+μ+e- from data collected by experiment E865 in 1996 at the Alternating Gradient Synchroton of Brookhaven National Laboratory. We place an upper limit on the branching ratio at 3.9×10-11 ( 90% C.L.). Together with results based on data collected in 1995 and an earlier experiment, E777, this result establishes a combined 90% confidence level upper limit on the branching ratio at 2.8×10-11. We also report a new upper limit on the branching ratio for π0-->μ+e- of 3.8×10-10 ( 90% C.L.).

The upper limits of pain and suffering in animal research.

PubMed

Beauchamp, Tom L; Morton, David B

2015-10-01

The control of risk and harm in human research often calls for the establishment of upper limits of risk of pain, suffering, and distress that investigators must not exceed. Such upper limits are uncommon in animal research, in which limits of acceptability are usually left to the discretion of individual investigators, institutions, national inspectors, or ethics review committees. We here assess the merits of the European Directive 2010/63/EU on the Protection of Animals Used for Scientific Purposes and its accompanying instruments, such as guides and examples. These documents present a body of legislation governing animal research in the European Union. We argue that the directive supplies a promising approach, but one in need of revision. We interpret the directive's general conception of upper limits and show its promise for the establishment of high-quality policies. We provide a moral rationale for such policies, address the problem of justified exceptions to established upper limits, and show when causing harm is and is not wrongful. We conclude that if the standards we propose for improving the directive are not realized in the review of research protocols, loose and prejudicial risk-benefit assessments may continue to be deemed sufficient to justify morally questionable research. However, a revised EU directive and accompanying instruments could have a substantial influence on the ethics of animal research worldwide, especially in the development of morally sound legal frameworks.

Flow of river water into a karstic limestone aquifer - 2. Dating the young fraction in groundwater mixtures in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Valdosta, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, E.; Drenkard, S.; Schlosser, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Weppernig, R.; McConnell, J.B.; Michel, R.L.

1998-01-01

Tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) data are used to date the young fraction in groundwater mixtures from a karstic limestone aquifer near Valdosta, Georgia, where regional paleowater in the Upper Floridan aquifer receives recharge from two young sources the flow of Withlacoochee River water through sinkholes in the river bed, and leakage of infiltration water through post-Eocene semi-confining beds above the Upper Floridan aquifer. In dating the young fraction of mixtures using CFCs, it is necessary to reconstruct the CFC concentration that was in the young fraction prior to mixing. The 3H/3He age is independent of the extent of dilution with older (3H-free and 3He(trit)-free) water. The groundwater mixtures are designated as Type-I for mixtures of regional paleowater and regional infiltration water and Type-2 for mixtures containing more than approximately 4% of river water. The fractions of regional paleowater, regional infiltration water, and Withlacoochee River water in the groundwater mixtures were determined from Cl- and ??18O data for water from the Upper Floridan aquifer at Valdosta, Georgia The chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11 and CFC-113 are removed by microbial degradation and/or sorption processes in most allaerobic (Type-2) groundwater at Valdosta, but are present in some aerobic Type-I water. CFC-12 persists in both SO4-reducing and methanogenic water. The very low detection limits for CFCs (approximately 0.3 pg kg-1) permitted CFC-11 and CFC-12 dating of the fraction of regional infiltration water in Type-I mixtures, and CFC-12 dating of the river-water fraction in Type-2 mixtures. Overall, approximately 50% of the 85 water sam pies obtained from the Upper Floridan aquifer have CFC-12-based ages of the young traction that are consistent with the 3H concentration of the groundwater. Because of uncertainties associated with very low 3H and 3He content in dilute mixtures, 3H/3He dating is limited to the river-water fraction in Type-2 mixtures containing more than about 10??? river water. Of the 41 water samples measured for 3H/3He dating, dilution of H and low -He concentration limited 3H/3He dating to 16 mixtures in which 3H/3He ages are defined with errors ranging from ??2 to ??7.5 a (1 ??). After correction for dilution with (assumed) CFC-free regional infiltration water and regional paleowater in the Upper Floridan aquifer, adjusted CFC-12 ages agree with 3H/3He ages within 5 a or less in 7 of the 9 co-dated Type-2 mixtures Tritium data and dating based on both CFC-11 and CFC-12 in Type-I mixtures indicate that travel times of infiltration water through the overlying Post-Eocene semi-confining beds exceed 35 a. The CFC and 3H/3He dating indicate that the river fraction in most groundwater entered the groundwater reservoir in the past 20 to 30 a. Few domestic and municipal supply wells sampled intercept water younger than 5 a. Calculated velocities of river water in the Upper Floridan aquifer downgradient of the sinkhole area range from 0.4 to 8.2 m/d. Radiocarbon data indicate that ages of the regional paleowater are on the 10 000-a time scale. An average lag time of approximately 10 to 25 a is determined for discharge of groundwater from the surficial and intermediate aquifers above the Upper Floridan aquifer to the Withlacoochee River.

Upper limits for X-ray emission from Jupiter as measured from the Copernicus satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vesecky, J. F.; Culhane, J. L.; Hawkins, F. J.

1975-01-01

X-ray telescopic observations are made by the Copernicus satellite for detecting X-ray emission from Jupiter analogous to X-rays from terrestrial aurorae. Values of X-ray fluxes recorded by three Copernicus detectors covering the 0.6 to 7.5 keV energy range are reported. The detectors employed are described and the times at which the observations were made are given. Resulting upper-limit spectra are compared with previous X-ray observations of Jupiter. The upper-limit X-ray fluxes are discussed in terms of magnetospheric activity on Jupiter.

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Upper Mississippi region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bloyd, R.M.

1975-01-01

Advances in techniques in ground-water hydrology during recent years have provided methods that the hydrologist and planner can use for planning and design of ground-water developments. Therefore, the planner can now resolve some of the development and management questions that historically have bred uncertainty when this part of the water resource was considered for development.

The Economic Cost of Methamphetamine Use in the United States, 2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicosia, Nancy; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Kilmer, Beau; Lundberg, Russell; Chiesa, James

2009-01-01

This first national estimate suggests that the economic cost of methamphetamine (meth) use in the United States reached $23.4 billion in 2005. Given the uncertainty in estimating the costs of meth use, this book provides a lower-bound estimate of $16.2 billion and an upper-bound estimate of $48.3 billion. The analysis considers a wide range of…

Observed NO/NO2 Ratios in the Upper Troposphere Imply Errors in NO-NO2-O3 Cycling Kinetics or an Unaccounted NOx Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvern, R. F.; Jacob, D. J.; Travis, K. R.; Sherwen, T.; Evans, M. J.; Cohen, R. C.; Laughner, J. L.; Hall, S. R.; Ullmann, K.; Crounse, J. D.; Wennberg, P. O.; Peischl, J.; Pollack, I. B.

2018-05-01

Observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign over the southeast United States in August-September 2013 show NO/NO2 concentration ratios in the upper troposphere that are approximately half of photochemical equilibrium values computed from Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) kinetic data. One possible explanation is the presence of labile NOx reservoir species, presumably organic, decomposing thermally to NO2 in the instrument. The NO2 instrument corrects for this artifact from known labile HNO4 and CH3O2NO2 NOx reservoirs. To bridge the gap between measured and simulated NO2, additional unaccounted labile NOx reservoir species would have to be present at a mean concentration of 40 ppt for the SEAC4RS conditions (compared with 197 ppt for NOx). An alternative explanation is error in the low-temperature rate constant for the NO + O3 reaction (30% 1-σ uncertainty in JPL at 240 K) and/or in the spectroscopic data for NO2 photolysis (20% 1-σ uncertainty). Resolving this discrepancy is important for understanding global budgets of tropospheric oxidants and for interpreting satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns.

Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

2016-02-01

Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

Assessing uncertainty in the turbulent upper-ocean mixed layer using an unstructured finite-element solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco, Luz; Smith, Katherine; Hamlington, Peter; Niemeyer, Kyle

2017-11-01

Vertical transport flux in the ocean upper mixed layer has recently been attributed to submesoscale currents, which occur at scales on the order of kilometers in the horizontal direction. These phenomena, which include fronts and mixed-layer instabilities, have been of particular interest due to the effect of turbulent mixing on nutrient transport, facilitating phytoplankton blooms. We study these phenomena using a non-hydrostatic, large eddy simulation for submesoscale currents in the ocean, developed using the extensible, open-source finite element platform FEniCs. Our model solves the standard Boussinesq Euler equations in variational form using the finite element method. FEniCs enables the use of parallel computing on modern systems for efficient computing time, and is suitable for unstructured grids where irregular topography can be considered in the future. The solver will be verified against the well-established NCAR-LES model and validated against observational data. For the verification with NCAR-LES, the velocity, pressure, and buoyancy fields are compared through a surface-wind-driven, open-ocean case. We use this model to study the impacts of uncertainties in the model parameters, such as near-surface buoyancy flux and secondary circulation, and discuss implications.

Moving across scales: Challenges and opportunities in upscaling carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naithani, K. J.

2016-12-01

Light use efficiency (LUE) type models are commonly used to upscale terrestrial C fluxes and estimate regional and global C budgets. Model parameters are often estimated for each land cover type (LCT) using flux observations from one or more eddy covariance towers, and then spatially extrapolated by integrating land cover, meteorological, and remotely sensed data. Decisions regarding the type of input data (spatial resolution of land cover data, spatial and temporal length of flux data), representation of landscape structure (land use vs. disturbance regime), and the type of modeling framework (common risk vs. hierarchical) all influence the estimates CO2 fluxes and the associated uncertainties, but are rarely considered together. This work presents a synthesis of past and present efforts for upscaling CO2 fluxes and associated uncertainties in the ChEAS (Chequamegon Ecosystem Atmosphere Study) region in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This work highlights two key future research needs. First, the characterization of uncertainties due to all of the abovementioned factors reflects only a (hopefully relevant) subset the overall uncertainties. Second, interactions among these factors are likely critical, but are poorly represented by the tower network at landscape scales. Yet, results indicate significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity of uncertainty in CO2 fluxes which can inform carbon management efforts and prioritize data needs.

Localizing Effects of Leptin on Upper Airway and Respiratory Control during Sleep.

PubMed

Yao, Qiaoling; Pho, Huy; Kirkness, Jason; Ladenheim, Ellen E; Bi, Sheng; Moran, Timothy H; Fuller, David D; Schwartz, Alan R; Polotsky, Vsevolod Y

2016-05-01

Obesity hypoventilation and obstructive sleep apnea are common complications of obesity linked to defects in respiratory pump and upper airway neural control. Leptin-deficient ob/ob mice have impaired ventilatory control and inspiratory flow limitation during sleep, which are both reversed with leptin. We aimed to localize central nervous system (CNS) site(s) of leptin action on respiratory and upper airway neuroventilatory control. We localized the effect of leptin to medulla versus hypothalamus by administering intracerbroventricular leptin (10 μg/2 μL) versus vehicle to the lateral (n = 14) versus fourth ventricle (n = 11) of ob/ob mice followed by polysomnographic recording. Analyses were stratified for effects on respiratory (nonflow-limited breaths) and upper airway (inspiratory flow limitation) functions. CNS loci were identified by (1) leptin-induced signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) phosphorylation and (2) projections of respiratory and upper airway motoneurons with a retrograde transsynaptic tracer (pseudorabies virus). Both routes of leptin administration increased minute ventilation during nonflow-limited breathing in sleep. Phrenic motoneurons were synaptically coupled to the nucleus of the solitary tract, which also showed STAT3 phosphorylation, but not to the hypothalamus. Inspiratory flow limitation and obstructive hypopneas were attenuated by leptin administration to the lateral but not to the fourth cerebral ventricle. Upper airway motoneurons were synaptically coupled with the dorsomedial hypothalamus, which exhibited STAT3 phosphorylation. Leptin relieves upper airway obstruction in sleep apnea by activating the forebrain, possibly in the dorsomedial hypothalamus. In contrast, leptin upregulates ventilatory control through hindbrain sites of action, possibly in the nucleus of the solitary tract. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Outcomes of the Bobath concept on upper limb recovery following stroke.

PubMed

Luke, Carolyn; Dodd, Karen J; Brock, Kim

2004-12-01

To determine the effectiveness of the Bobath concept at reducing upper limb impairments, activity limitations and participation restrictions after stroke. Electronic databases were searched to identify relevant trials published between 1966 and 2003. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for the following inclusion criteria: population of adults with upper limb disability after stroke; stated use of the Bobath concept aimed at improving upper limb disability in isolation from other approaches; outcomes reflecting changes in upper limb impairment, activity limitation or participation restriction. Of the 688 articles initially identified, eight met the inclusion criteria. Five were randomized controlled trials, one used a single-group crossover design and two were single-case design studies. Five studies measured impairments including shoulder pain, tone, muscle strength and motor control. The Bobath concept was found to reduce shoulder pain better than cryotherapy, and to reduce tone compared to no intervention and compared to proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF). However, no difference was detected for changes in tone between the Bobath concept and a functional approach. Differences did not reach significance for measures of muscle strength and motor control. Six studies measured activity limitations, none of these found the Bobath concept was superior to other therapy approaches. Two studies measured changes in participation restriction and both found equivocal results. Comparisons of the Bobath concept with other approaches do not demonstrate superiority of one approach over the other at improving upper limb impairment, activity or participation. However, study limitations relating to methodological quality, the outcome measures used and contextual factors investigated limit the ability to draw conclusions. Future research should use sensitive upper limb measures, trained Bobath therapists and homogeneous samples to identify the influence of patient factors on the response to therapy approaches.

A comparison between probability and information measures of uncertainty in a simulated soil map and the economic value of imperfect soil information.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, R. Murray

2014-05-01

Conventionally the uncertainty of a conventional soil map has been expressed in terms of the mean purity of its map units: the probability that the soil profile class examined at a site would be found to correspond to the eponymous class of the simple map unit that is delineated there (Burrough et al, 1971). This measure of uncertainty has an intuitive meaning and is used for quality control in soil survey contracts (Western, 1978). However, it may be of limited value to the manager or policy maker who wants to decide whether the map provides a basis for decision making, and whether the cost of producing a better map would be justified. In this study I extend a published analysis of the economic implications of uncertainty in a soil map (Giasson et al., 2000). A decision analysis was developed to assess the economic value of imperfect soil map information for agricultural land use planning. Random error matrices for the soil map units were then generated, subject to constraints which ensure consistency with fixed frequencies of the different soil classes. For each error matrix the mean map unit purity was computed, and the value of the implied imperfect soil information was computed by the decision analysis. An alternative measure of the uncertainty in a soil map was considered. This is the mean soil map information which is the difference between the information content of a soil observation, at a random location in the region, and the information content of a soil observation given that the map unit is known. I examined the relationship between the value of imperfect soil information and the purity and information measures of map uncertainty. In both cases there was considerable variation in the economic value of possible maps with fixed values of the uncertainty measure. However, the correlation was somewhat stronger with the information measure, and there was a clear upper bound on the value of an imperfect soil map when the mean information takes some particular value. This suggests that the information measure may be a useful one for general communication of the value of soil and similar thematic data. Burrough, P.A., Beckett, P.H.T., Jarvis, M.G., 1971. The relation between cost and utility in soil survey. J. Soil Sci. 22, 359-394. Giasson, E., van Es, C, van Wambeke, A., Bryant, R.B. 2000. Assessing the economic value of soil information using decision analysis techniques. Soil Science 165, 971-978 Western, S., 1978. Soil survey contracts and quality control. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford.

A "reverse direction" technique of single-port left upper pulmonary resection.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Sihoe, Alan D L; Du, Ming

2016-08-01

Single-port video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) left upper lobectomy is difficult amongst all the lobes. At the beginning of single-port lobectomies, the upper lobes were believed not to be amenable for single-port approach due to the difficult angulation for staplers. Gonzalez reported the first single-port VATS left upper lobectomy in 2011. We report a new technique of single-port VATS left upper lobectomy with the concept of "reverse direction". We divide the apical-anterior arterial trunk with upper vein in the last. The procedure sequence is described as follows: posterior artery, lingular artery, bronchus and finally upper vein & apical-anterior arterial trunk. This method could overcome the angular limitations frequently encountered in single-port VATS procedures; reduce the risk of injuries to pulmonary artery; broaden the indications of single-port the upper lobe of the left lung (LUL) to include hypoplastic lung fissures. Limitations of this new practice include the enlargement or severe calcifications of hilar and bronchial lymph nodes. A "reverse direction" technique of single-port left upper pulmonary resection is feasible and safe.

Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

2017-12-01

Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the possible reason of discrepancies in uncertainty between three catchments was quantitatively discussed by the contribution analysis based on climatic elasticity method. This study can provide beneficial reference to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

Space radiation risk limits and Earth-Moon-Mars environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Kozarev, K.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2010-12-01

We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

The uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from grazed grasslands: A New Zealand case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelliher, Francis M.; Henderson, Harold V.; Cox, Neil R.

2017-01-01

Agricultural soils emit nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas and the primary source of nitrogen oxides which deplete stratospheric ozone. Agriculture has been estimated to be the largest anthropogenic N2O source. In New Zealand (NZ), pastoral agriculture uses half the land area. To estimate the annual N2O emissions from NZ's agricultural soils, the nitrogen (N) inputs have been determined and multiplied by an emission factor (EF), the mass fraction of N inputs emitted as N2Osbnd N. To estimate the associated uncertainty, we developed an analytical method. For comparison, another estimate was determined by Monte Carlo numerical simulation. For both methods, expert judgement was used to estimate the N input uncertainty. The EF uncertainty was estimated by meta-analysis of the results from 185 NZ field trials. For the analytical method, assuming a normal distribution and independence of the terms used to calculate the emissions (correlation = 0), the estimated 95% confidence limit was ±57%. When there was a normal distribution and an estimated correlation of 0.4 between N input and EF, the latter inferred from experimental data involving six NZ soils, the analytical method estimated a 95% confidence limit of ±61%. The EF data from 185 NZ field trials had a logarithmic normal distribution. For the Monte Carlo method, assuming a logarithmic normal distribution for EF, a normal distribution for the other terms and independence of all terms, the estimated 95% confidence limits were -32% and +88% or ±60% on average. When there were the same distribution assumptions and a correlation of 0.4 between N input and EF, the Monte Carlo method estimated 95% confidence limits were -34% and +94% or ±64% on average. For the analytical and Monte Carlo methods, EF uncertainty accounted for 95% and 83% of the emissions uncertainty when the correlation between N input and EF was 0 and 0.4, respectively. As the first uncertainty analysis of an agricultural soils N2O emissions inventory using "country-specific" field trials to estimate EF uncertainty, this can be a potentially informative case study for the international scientific community.

Winter water relations at the upper elevational limits of hemlock on Mt. Ascutney, Vermont

Treesearch

Chandra B. Vostral; Richard L. Boyce

2000-01-01

Winter water relations have been monitored in hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) at their upper elevational limits for three winters, 1997, 1998, and 1999, on Mt. Ascutney, Vermont. Hemlock and white pine trees (Pinus strobus L.) reach their elevational limit on Mt. Ascutney at 640 m (2100?), while the summit has an elevation of...

Upper limit on the inner radiation belt MeV electron intensity.

PubMed

Li, X; Selesnick, R S; Baker, D N; Jaynes, A N; Kanekal, S G; Schiller, Q; Blum, L; Fennell, J; Blake, J B

2015-02-01

No instruments in the inner radiation belt are immune from the unforgiving penetration of the highly energetic protons (tens of MeV to GeV). The inner belt proton flux level, however, is relatively stable; thus, for any given instrument, the proton contamination often leads to a certain background noise. Measurements from the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment on board Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment CubeSat, in a low Earth orbit, clearly demonstrate that there exist sub-MeV electrons in the inner belt because their flux level is orders of magnitude higher than the background, while higher-energy electron (>1.6 MeV) measurements cannot be distinguished from the background. Detailed analysis of high-quality measurements from the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope on board Van Allen Probes, in a geo-transfer-like orbit, provides, for the first time, quantified upper limits on MeV electron fluxes in various energy ranges in the inner belt. These upper limits are rather different from flux levels in the AE8 and AE9 models, which were developed based on older data sources. For 1.7, 2.5, and 3.3 MeV electrons, the upper limits are about 1 order of magnitude lower than predicted model fluxes. The implication of this difference is profound in that unless there are extreme solar wind conditions, which have not happened yet since the launch of Van Allen Probes, significant enhancements of MeV electrons do not occur in the inner belt even though such enhancements are commonly seen in the outer belt. Quantified upper limit of MeV electrons in the inner beltActual MeV electron intensity likely much lower than the upper limitMore detailed understanding of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere.

Upper limit on the inner radiation belt MeV electron intensity

PubMed Central

Li, X; Selesnick, RS; Baker, DN; Jaynes, AN; Kanekal, SG; Schiller, Q; Blum, L; Fennell, J; Blake, JB

2015-01-01

No instruments in the inner radiation belt are immune from the unforgiving penetration of the highly energetic protons (tens of MeV to GeV). The inner belt proton flux level, however, is relatively stable; thus, for any given instrument, the proton contamination often leads to a certain background noise. Measurements from the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment on board Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment CubeSat, in a low Earth orbit, clearly demonstrate that there exist sub-MeV electrons in the inner belt because their flux level is orders of magnitude higher than the background, while higher-energy electron (>1.6 MeV) measurements cannot be distinguished from the background. Detailed analysis of high-quality measurements from the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope on board Van Allen Probes, in a geo-transfer-like orbit, provides, for the first time, quantified upper limits on MeV electron fluxes in various energy ranges in the inner belt. These upper limits are rather different from flux levels in the AE8 and AE9 models, which were developed based on older data sources. For 1.7, 2.5, and 3.3 MeV electrons, the upper limits are about 1 order of magnitude lower than predicted model fluxes. The implication of this difference is profound in that unless there are extreme solar wind conditions, which have not happened yet since the launch of Van Allen Probes, significant enhancements of MeV electrons do not occur in the inner belt even though such enhancements are commonly seen in the outer belt. Key Points Quantified upper limit of MeV electrons in the inner belt Actual MeV electron intensity likely much lower than the upper limit More detailed understanding of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere PMID:26167446

Impact of river water levels on the simulation of stream-aquifer exchanges over the Upper Rhine alluvial aquifer (France/Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Habets, Florence

2018-05-01

This study aims to assess the sensitivity of river level estimations to the stream-aquifer exchanges within a hydrogeological model of the Upper Rhine alluvial aquifer (France/Germany), characterized as a large shallow aquifer with numerous hydropower dams. Two specific points are addressed: errors associated with digital elevation models (DEMs) and errors associated with the estimation of river level. The fine-resolution raw Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission dataset is used to assess the impact of the DEM uncertainties. Specific corrections are used to overcome these uncertainties: a simple moving average is applied to the topography along the rivers and additional data are used along the Rhine River to account for the numerous dams. Then, the impact of the river-level temporal variations is assessed through two different methods based on observed rating curves and on the Manning formula. Results are evaluated against observation data from 37 river-level points located over the aquifer, 190 piezometers, and a spatial database of wetlands. DEM uncertainties affect the spatial variability of the stream-aquifer exchanges by inducing strong noise and unrealistic peaks. The corrected DEM reduces the biases between observations and simulations by 22 and 51% for the river levels and the river discharges, respectively. It also improves the agreement between simulated groundwater overflows and observed wetlands. Introducing river-level time variability increases the stream-aquifer exchange range and reduces the piezometric head variability. These results confirm the need to better assess river levels in regional hydrogeological modeling, especially for applications in which stream-aquifer exchanges are important.

Competition-Colonization Trade-Offs, Competitive Uncertainty, and the Evolutionary Assembly of Species

PubMed Central

Pillai, Pradeep; Guichard, Frédéric

2012-01-01

We utilize a standard competition-colonization metapopulation model in order to study the evolutionary assembly of species. Based on earlier work showing how models assuming strict competitive hierarchies will likely lead to runaway evolution and self-extinction for all species, we adopt a continuous competition function that allows for levels of uncertainty in the outcome of competition. We then, by extending the standard patch-dynamic metapopulation model in order to include evolutionary dynamics, allow for the coevolution of species into stable communities composed of species with distinct limiting similarities. Runaway evolution towards stochastic extinction then becomes a limiting case controlled by the level of competitive uncertainty. We demonstrate how intermediate competitive uncertainty maximizes the equilibrium species richness as well as maximizes the adaptive radiation and self-assembly of species under adaptive dynamics with mutations of non-negligible size. By reconciling competition-colonization tradeoff theory with co-evolutionary dynamics, our results reveal the importance of intermediate levels of competitive uncertainty for the evolutionary assembly of species. PMID:22448253

How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, Lorraine A.; Kaufman, Yoram J.; Levin, Zev; Ghan, Stephen; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Exact results for the finite time thermodynamic uncertainty relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, Sreekanth K.; Krishnamurthy, Supriya

2018-03-01

We obtain exact results for the recently discovered finite-time thermodynamic uncertainty relation, for the dissipated work W d , in a stochastically driven system with non-Gaussian work statistics, both in the steady state and transient regimes, by obtaining exact expressions for any moment of W d at arbitrary times. The uncertainty function (the Fano factor of W d ) is bounded from below by 2k_BT as expected, for all times τ, in both steady state and transient regimes. The lower bound is reached at τ=0 as well as when certain system parameters vanish (corresponding to an equilibrium state). Surprisingly, we find that the uncertainty function also reaches a constant value at large τ for all the cases we have looked at. For a system starting and remaining in steady state, the uncertainty function increases monotonically, as a function of τ as well as other system parameters, implying that the large τ value is also an upper bound. For the same system in the transient regime, however, we find that the uncertainty function can have a local minimum at an accessible time τm , for a range of parameter values. The large τ value for the uncertainty function is hence not a bound in this case. The non-monotonicity suggests, rather counter-intuitively, that there might be an optimal time for the working of microscopic machines, as well as an optimal configuration in the phase space of parameter values. Our solutions show that the ratios of higher moments of the dissipated work are also bounded from below by 2k_BT . For another model, also solvable by our methods, which never reaches a steady state, the uncertainty function, is in some cases, bounded from below by a value less than 2k_BT .

ERRATUM: "Beating the Spin-Down Limit on Gravitational Wave Emission from the Crab Pulsar" (2008, ApJ, 683, L45)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B.; Abbott, R.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amin, R.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Armandula, H.; Armor, P.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Ballmer, S.; Bantilan, H.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barton, M. A.; Bastarrika, M.; Bayer, K.; Betzwieser, J.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Biswas, R.; Black, E.; Blackburn, K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogue, L.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A.; Brown, D. A.; Brunet, G.; Bullington, A.; Buonanno, A.; Burmeister, O.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Camp, J. B.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K.; Cao, J.; Cardenas, L.; Casebolt, T.; Castaldi, G.; Cepeda, C.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chatterji, S.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Christensen, N.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Cokelaer, T.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T.; Coyne, D.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cutler, R. M.; Dalrymple, J.; Danzmann, K.; Davies, G.; De Bra, D.; Degallaix, J.; Degree, M.; Dergachev, V.; Desai, S.; De Salvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M.; Dickson, J.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Drever, R. W. P.; Duke, I.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dupuis, R. J.; Dwyer, J. G.; Echols, C.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Espinoza, E.; Etzel, T.; Evans, T.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, Y.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Finn, L. S.; Flasch, K.; Fotopoulos, N.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fyffe, M.; Garofoli, J.; Gholami, I.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Goda, K.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L.; González, G.; Gossler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Gray, M.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grimaldi, F.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guenther, M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G.; Harstad, E.; Hayama, K.; Hayler, T.; Heefner, J.; Heng, I. S.; Hennessy, M.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hosken, D.; Hough, J.; Huttner, S. H.; Ingram, D.; Ito, M.; Ivanov, A.; Johnson, B.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kamat, S.; Kanner, J.; Kasprzyk, D.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalili, F. Ya.; Khan, R.; Khazanov, E.; Kim, C.; King, P.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R. K.; Kozak, D.; Kozhevatov, I.; Krishnan, B.; Kwee, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Lang, M. M.; Lantz, B.; Lazzarini, A.; Lei, M.; Leindecker, N.; Leonhardt, V.; Leonor, I.; Libbrecht, K.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lormand, M.; Lu, P.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Machenschalk, B.; Mac Innis, M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Mandic, V.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Markowitz, J.; Maros, E.; Martin, I.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McHugh, M.; McIntyre, G.; McIvor, G.; McKechan, D.; McKenzie, K.; Meier, T.; Melissinos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C. J.; Meyers, D.; Miller, J.; Minelli, J.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Miyakawa, O.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S.; Moreno, G.; Mossavi, K.; Lowry, C. Mow; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukhopadhyay, H.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P.; Myers, E.; Myers, J.; Nash, T.; Nelson, J.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Numata, K.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Papa, M. A.; Parameshwaraiah, V.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Petrie, T.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Postiglione, F.; Principe, M.; Prix, R.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Rainer, N.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramsunder, M.; Rehbein, H.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Rivera, B.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Roddy, S.; Rodriguez, A.; Rogan, A. M.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romie, J.; Route, R.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruet, L.; Russell, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Samidi, M.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Saraf, S.; Sarin, P.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Savov, P.; Schediwy, S. W.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Sears, B.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Sinha, S.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Stein, L. C.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strom, D. M.; Stuver, A.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, K.-X.; Sung, M.; Sutton, P. J.; Takahashi, H.; Tanner, D. B.; Taylor, R.; Taylor, R.; Thacker, J.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thüring, A.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Tyler, W.; Ugolini, D.; Ulmen, J.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Sluys, M.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.; Villar, A.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Ward, H.; Ward, R.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A.; Weiss, R.; Wen, S.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, H. R.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Wilmut, I.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Wu, W.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yan, Z.; Yoshida, S.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Santostasi, G.

2009-11-01

A processing error in the signal template used in this search led to upper limits about 30% lower than we now know is warranted by the early S5 data. We have re-analyzed that data and find new upper limits on the strain parameter h 0 of 4.9 × 10-25/3.9 × 10-25 for uniform/restricted prior assumptions concerning the Crab inclination and polarization angles. These results have now been superseded by upper limits of 2.6 × 10-25/2.0 × 10-25 based on the full S5 data and presented in Abbott et al. (2009). The multitemplate search was not affected by the error.

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

2012-01-01

Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

Full band all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the O1 LIGO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Angelova, S. V.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atallah, D. V.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Austin, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barkett, K.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Bawaj, M.; Bayley, J. C.; Bazzan, M.; Bécsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Bero, J. J.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Biscoveanu, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonilla, E.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bossie, K.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Bustillo, J. Calderón; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerdá-Durán, P.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chase, E.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chia, H. Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciecielag, P.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Clearwater, P.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Cohen, D.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordero-Carrión, I.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, E. T.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Dálya, G.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Demos, N.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; De Pietri, R.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; De Rossi, C.; DeSalvo, R.; de Varona, O.; Devenson, J.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorosh, O.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Dreissigacker, C.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dupej, P.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Estevez, D.; Etienne, Z. B.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fee, C.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finstad, D.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fishbach, M.; Fisher, R. P.; Fitz-Axen, M.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Font, J. A.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garcia-Quiros, C.; Garufi, F.; Gateley, B.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, S.; Goncharov, B.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Gretarsson, E. M.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Halim, O.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hamilton, E. Z.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hinderer, T.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hreibi, A.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kamai, B.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kapadia, S. J.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, K.; Kim, W.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinley-Hanlon, M.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Knowles, T. D.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, H. W.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Linker, S. D.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lo, R. K. L.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macas, R.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña Hernandez, I.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Markowitz, A.; Maros, E.; Marquina, A.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Massera, E.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McNeill, L.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Milovich-Goff, M. C.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moffa, D.; Moggi, A.; Mogushi, K.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muñiz, E. A.; Muratore, M.; Murray, P. G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Neilson, J.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Nevin, L.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; North, C.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; O'Dea, G. D.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Okada, M. A.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ossokine, S.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, Howard; Pan, Huang-Wei; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Parida, A.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patil, M.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pirello, M.; Pisarski, A.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Pratten, G.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rajbhandari, B.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Ramos-Buades, A.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ren, W.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Rutins, G.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sanchez, L. E.; Sanchis-Gual, N.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheel, M.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaner, M. B.; Shao, L.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Somala, S.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staats, K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Stops, D. J.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Strunk, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Suresh, J.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Tait, S. C.; Talbot, C.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tao, D.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Tasson, J. D.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, R.; Tewari, S. V.; Theeg, T.; Thies, F.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torres-Forné, A.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tsukada, L.; Tsuna, D.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, W. H.; Wang, Y. F.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Weßels, P.; Westerweck, J.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Wilken, D.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, W. K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wysocki, D. M.; Xiao, S.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, L.; Yap, M. J.; Yazback, M.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadroźny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.-H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2018-05-01

We report on a new all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency band 475-2000 Hz and with a frequency time derivative in the range of [-1.0 ,+0.1 ] ×1 0-8 Hz /s . Potential signals could be produced by a nearby spinning and slightly nonaxisymmetric isolated neutron star in our Galaxy. This search uses the data from Advanced LIGO's first observational run O1. No gravitational-wave signals were observed, and upper limits were placed on their strengths. For completeness, results from the separately published low-frequency search 20-475 Hz are included as well. Our lowest upper limit on worst-case (linearly polarized) strain amplitude h0 is ˜4 ×1 0-25 near 170 Hz, while at the high end of our frequency range, we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 1.3 ×1 0-24. For a circularly polarized source (most favorable orientation), the smallest upper limit obtained is ˜1.5 ×1 0-25.

Upper limits to the annihilation radiation luminosity of Centaurus A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehrels, N.; Cline, T. L.; Paciesas, W. S.; Teegarden, B. J.; Tueller, J.; Dirouchoux, P.; Hameury, J. M.

1983-01-01

A high resolution observation of the active nucleus galaxy Centaurus A (NGC 5128) was made by the GSFC low energy gamma-ray spectrometer (LEGS) during a balloon flight on 1981 November 19. The measured spectrum between 70 and 500 keV is well represented by a power law of the form 1.05 x 10 (-4) (E/100 keV) (-1.59) ph/sq cm/s with no breaks or line features observed. The 98 percent confidence (2 sigma) flux upper limit for a narrow (3 keV) 511-keV positron annihilation line is 9.9 x 10 (-4) ph/sq cm/s. Using this upper limit, the ratio of the narrow-line annihilation radiation luminosity to the integral or = 511 keV luminosity is estimated to be 0.09 (2 sigma upper limit). This is compared with the measured value for our Galactic center in the Fall of 1979 of 0.10 to 0.13, indicating a difference in the emission regions in the nuclei of the two galaxies.

Upper Limits to the Annihilation Radiation Luminosity of Centaurus a

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehrels, N.; Cline, T. L.; Paciesas, W. S.; Teegarden, B. J.; Tueller, J.; Dirouchoux, P.; Hameury, J. M.

1983-01-01

A high resolution observation of the active nucleus galaxy Centaurus A (NGC 5128) was made by the GSFC low energy gamma-ray spectrometer (LEGS) during a balloon flight on 1981 November 19. The measured spectrum between 70 and 500 keV is well represented by a power law of the form 1.05 x 10 (-4) (E/100 keV) (-1.59) ph/sq cm /s with no breaks or line features observed. The 98% confidence (2 sigma) flux upper limit for a narrow ( 3 keV) 511-keV positron annihilation line is 9.9 x 10 (-4) ph/ sq cm /s. Using this upper limit, the ratio of the narrow-line annihilation radiation luminosity to the integral or = 511 keV luminosity is estimated to be 0.09 (2 sigma upper limit). This is compared with the measured value for our galactic center in the Fall of 1979 of 0.10 to 0.13, indicating a difference in he emission regions in the nuclei of the two galaxies.

q-bosons and the q-analogue quantized field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Charles A.

1995-01-01

The q-analogue coherent states are used to identify physical signatures for the presence of a 1-analogue quantized radiation field in the q-CS classical limits where the absolute value of z is large. In this quantum-optics-like limit, the fractional uncertainties of most physical quantities (momentum, position, amplitude, phase) which characterize the quantum field are O(1). They only vanish as O(1/absolute value of z) when q = 1. However, for the number operator, N, and the N-Hamiltonian for a free q-boson gas, H(sub N) = h(omega)(N + 1/2), the fractional uncertainties do still approach zero. A signature for q-boson counting statistics is that (Delta N)(exp 2)/ (N) approaches 0 as the absolute value of z approaches infinity. Except for its O(1) fractional uncertainty, the q-generalization of the Hermitian phase operator of Pegg and Barnett, phi(sub q), still exhibits normal classical behavior. The standard number-phase uncertainty-relation, Delta(N) Delta phi(sub q) = 1/2, and the approximate commutation relation, (N, phi(sub q)) = i, still hold for the single-mode q-analogue quantized field. So, N and phi(sub q) are almost canonically conjugate operators in the q-CS classical limit. The q-analogue CS's minimize this uncertainty relation for moderate (absolute value of z)(exp 2).

Acoustic Observation of Living Organisms Reveals the Upper Limit of the Oxygen Minimum Zone

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Arnaud; Ballón, Michael; Chaigneau, Alexis

2010-01-01

Background Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding in the World Ocean as a result of climate change and direct anthropogenic influence. OMZ expansion greatly affects biogeochemical processes and marine life, especially by constraining the vertical habitat of most marine organisms. Currently, monitoring the variability of the upper limit of the OMZs relies on time intensive sampling protocols, causing poor spatial resolution. Methodology/Principal Findings Using routine underwater acoustic observations of the vertical distribution of marine organisms, we propose a new method that allows determination of the upper limit of the OMZ with a high precision. Applied in the eastern South-Pacific, this original sampling technique provides high-resolution information on the depth of the upper OMZ allowing documentation of mesoscale and submesoscale features (e.g., eddies and filaments) that structure the upper ocean and the marine ecosystems. We also use this information to estimate the habitable volume for the world's most exploited fish, the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens). Conclusions/Significance This opportunistic method could be implemented on any vessel geared with multi-frequency echosounders to perform comprehensive high-resolution monitoring of the upper limit of the OMZ. Our approach is a novel way of studying the impact of physical processes on marine life and extracting valid information about the pelagic habitat and its spatial structure, a crucial aspect of Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in the current context of climate change. PMID:20442791

Climate limits across space and time on European forest structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

2017-12-01

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limitted by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Upper Limits on Gravitational Waves from Scorpius X-1 from a Model-based Cross-correlation Search in Advanced LIGO Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bawaj, M.; Bazzan, M.; Bécsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Chatziioannou, K.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Deelman, E.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Duncan, J.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z. B.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gabel, M.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Galloway, D. K.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, S.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, W.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, H. W.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lo, R. K. L.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña Hernandez, I.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mayani, R.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Rynge, M.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shao, L.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahi, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.-F.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, K. W. K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.-H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Steeghs, D.; Wang, L.

2017-09-01

We present the results of a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass X-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using data from the first Advanced LIGO observing run. The search method uses details of the modeled, parametrized continuous signal to combine coherently data separated by less than a specified coherence time, which can be adjusted to trade off sensitivity against computational cost. A search was conducted over the frequency range 25-2000 {Hz}, spanning the current observationally constrained range of binary orbital parameters. No significant detection candidates were found, and frequency-dependent upper limits were set using a combination of sensitivity estimates and simulated signal injections. The most stringent upper limit was set at 175 {Hz}, with comparable limits set across the most sensitive frequency range from 100 to 200 {Hz}. At this frequency, the 95% upper limit on the signal amplitude h 0 is 2.3× {10}-25 marginalized over the unknown inclination angle of the neutron star’s spin, and 8.0× {10}-26 assuming the best orientation (which results in circularly polarized gravitational waves). These limits are a factor of 3-4 stronger than those set by other analyses of the same data, and a factor of ˜7 stronger than the best upper limits set using data from Initial LIGO science runs. In the vicinity of 100 {Hz}, the limits are a factor of between 1.2 and 3.5 above the predictions of the torque balance model, depending on the inclination angle; if the most likely inclination angle of 44° is assumed, they are within a factor of 1.7.

On Integral Upper Limits Assuming Power-law Spectra and the Sensitivity in High-energy Astronomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahnen, Max L., E-mail: m.knoetig@gmail.com

The high-energy non-thermal universe is dominated by power-law-like spectra. Therefore, results in high-energy astronomy are often reported as parameters of power-law fits, or, in the case of a non-detection, as an upper limit assuming the underlying unseen spectrum behaves as a power law. In this paper, I demonstrate a simple and powerful one-to-one relation of the integral upper limit in the two-dimensional power-law parameter space into the spectrum parameter space and use this method to unravel the so-far convoluted question of the sensitivity of astroparticle telescopes.

An upper limit for stratospheric hydrogen peroxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chance, K. V.; Traub, W. A.

1984-01-01

It has been postulated that hydrogen peroxide is important in stratospheric chemistry as a reservoir and sink for odd hydrogen species, and for its ability to interconvert them. The present investigation is concerned with an altitude dependent upper limit curve for stratospheric hydrogen peroxide, taking into account an altitude range from 21.5 to 38.0 km for January 23, 1983. The data employed are from balloon flight No. 1316-P, launched from the National Scientific Balloon Facility (NSBF) in Palestine, Texas. The obtained upper limit curve lies substantially below the data reported by Waters et al. (1981), even though the results are from the same latitude and are both wintertime measurements.

Making sense of genetic uncertainty: the role of religion and spirituality.

PubMed

White, Mary T

2009-02-15

This article argues that to the extent that religious and spiritual beliefs can help people cope with genetic uncertainty, a limited spiritual assessment may be appropriate in genetic counseling. The article opens by establishing why genetic information is inherently uncertain and why this uncertainty can be medically, morally, and spiritually problematic. This is followed by a review of the range of factors that can contribute to risk assessments, including a few heuristics commonly used in responses to uncertainty. The next two sections summarize recent research on the diverse roles of religious and spiritual beliefs in genetic decisions and challenges to conducting spiritual assessments in genetic counseling. Based on these findings, religious and spiritual beliefs are posited as serving essentially as a heuristic that some people will utilize in responding to their genetic risks. In the interests of helping such clients make informed decisions, a limited spiritual assessment is recommended and described. Some of the challenges and risks associated with this limited assessment are discussed. Since some religious and spiritual beliefs can conflict with the values of medicine, some decisions will remain problematic. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Durability reliability analysis for corroding concrete structures under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao

2018-02-01

This paper presents a durability reliability analysis of reinforced concrete structures subject to the action of marine chloride. The focus is to provide insight into the role of epistemic uncertainties on durability reliability. The corrosion model involves a number of variables whose probabilistic characteristics cannot be fully determined due to the limited availability of supporting data. All sources of uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, should be included in the reliability analysis. Two methods are available to formulate the epistemic uncertainty: the imprecise probability-based method and the purely probabilistic method in which the epistemic uncertainties are modeled as random variables. The paper illustrates how the epistemic uncertainties are modeled and propagated in the two methods, and shows how epistemic uncertainties govern the durability reliability.

An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

1999-12-01

The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

Robust Design Optimization via Failure Domain Bounding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2007-01-01

This paper extends and applies the strategies recently developed by the authors for handling constraints under uncertainty to robust design optimization. For the scope of this paper, robust optimization is a methodology aimed at problems for which some parameters are uncertain and are only known to belong to some uncertainty set. This set can be described by either a deterministic or a probabilistic model. In the methodology developed herein, optimization-based strategies are used to bound the constraint violation region using hyper-spheres and hyper-rectangles. By comparing the resulting bounding sets with any given uncertainty model, it can be determined whether the constraints are satisfied for all members of the uncertainty model (i.e., constraints are feasible) or not (i.e., constraints are infeasible). If constraints are infeasible and a probabilistic uncertainty model is available, upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation can be efficiently calculated. The tools developed enable approximating not only the set of designs that make the constraints feasible but also, when required, the set of designs for which the probability of constraint violation is below a prescribed admissible value. When constraint feasibility is possible, several design criteria can be used to shape the uncertainty model of performance metrics of interest. Worst-case, least-second-moment, and reliability-based design criteria are considered herein. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, these strategies are easily applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Considerations for Assessing Maximum Critical Temperatures in Small Ectothermic Animals: Insights from Leaf-Cutting Ants

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Pedro Leite; Camacho, Agustín; Navas, Carlos Arturo

2012-01-01

The thermal limits of individual animals were originally proposed as a link between animal physiology and thermal ecology. Although this link is valid in theory, the evaluation of physiological tolerances involves some problems that are the focus of this study. One rationale was that heating rates shall influence upper critical limits, so that ecological thermal limits need to consider experimental heating rates. In addition, if thermal limits are not surpassed in experiments, subsequent tests of the same individual should yield similar results or produce evidence of hardening. Finally, several non-controlled variables such as time under experimental conditions and procedures may affect results. To analyze these issues we conducted an integrative study of upper critical temperatures in a single species, the ant Atta sexdens rubropiosa, an animal model providing large numbers of individuals of diverse sizes but similar genetic makeup. Our specific aims were to test the 1) influence of heating rates in the experimental evaluation of upper critical temperature, 2) assumptions of absence of physical damage and reproducibility, and 3) sources of variance often overlooked in the thermal-limits literature; and 4) to introduce some experimental approaches that may help researchers to separate physiological and methodological issues. The upper thermal limits were influenced by both heating rates and body mass. In the latter case, the effect was physiological rather than methodological. The critical temperature decreased during subsequent tests performed on the same individual ants, even one week after the initial test. Accordingly, upper thermal limits may have been overestimated by our (and typical) protocols. Heating rates, body mass, procedures independent of temperature and other variables may affect the estimation of upper critical temperatures. Therefore, based on our data, we offer suggestions to enhance the quality of measurements, and offer recommendations to authors aiming to compile and analyze databases from the literature. PMID:22384147

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-03

For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5 °C, across a wide range of scenarios.

Satellite retrieval of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations by using clouds as CCN chambers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zheng, Youtong; Hashimshoni, Eyal

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities ( Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. In this paper, our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation ( S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud basemore » drop concentrations ( Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. Finally, the limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day.« less

Satellite retrieval of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations by using clouds as CCN chambers

DOE PAGES

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zheng, Youtong; Hashimshoni, Eyal; ...

2016-03-04

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities ( Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. In this paper, our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation ( S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud basemore » drop concentrations ( Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. Finally, the limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day.« less

A low level of extragalactic background light as revealed by gamma-rays from blazars.

PubMed

Aharonian, F; Akhperjanian, A G; Bazer-Bachi, A R; Beilicke, M; Benbow, W; Berge, D; Bernlöhr, K; Boisson, C; Bolz, O; Borrel, V; Braun, I; Breitling, F; Brown, A M; Chadwick, P M; Chounet, L-M; Cornils, R; Costamante, L; Degrange, B; Dickinson, H J; Djannati-Ataï, A; Drury, L O'C; Dubus, G; Emmanoulopoulos, D; Espigat, P; Feinstein, F; Fontaine, G; Fuchs, Y; Funk, S; Gallant, Y A; Giebels, B; Gillessen, S; Glicenstein, J F; Goret, P; Hadjichristidis, C; Hauser, D; Hauser, M; Heinzelmann, G; Henri, G; Hermann, G; Hinton, J A; Hofmann, W; Holleran, M; Horns, D; Jacholkowska, A; de Jager, O C; Khélifi, B; Klages, S; Komin, Nu; Konopelko, A; Latham, I J; Le Gallou, R; Lemière, A; Lemoine-Goumard, M; Leroy, N; Lohse, T; Martin, J M; Martineau-Huynh, O; Marcowith, A; Masterson, C; McComb, T J L; de Naurois, M; Nolan, S J; Noutsos, A; Orford, K J; Osborne, J L; Ouchrif, M; Panter, M; Pelletier, G; Pita, S; Pühlhofer, G; Punch, M; Raubenheimer, B C; Raue, M; Raux, J; Rayner, S M; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Ripken, J; Rob, L; Rolland, L; Rowell, G; Sahakian, V; Saugé, L; Schlenker, S; Schlickeiser, R; Schuster, C; Schwanke, U; Siewert, M; Sol, H; Spangler, D; Steenkamp, R; Stegmann, C; Tavernet, J-P; Terrier, R; Théoret, C G; Tluczykont, M; van Eldik, C; Vasileiadis, G; Venter, C; Vincent, P; Völk, H J; Wagner, S J

2006-04-20

The diffuse extragalactic background light consists of the sum of the starlight emitted by galaxies through the history of the Universe, and it could also have an important contribution from the 'first stars', which may have formed before galaxy formation began. Direct measurements are difficult and not yet conclusive, owing to the large uncertainties caused by the bright foreground emission associated with zodiacal light. An alternative approach is to study the absorption features imprinted on the gamma-ray spectra of distant extragalactic objects by interactions of those photons with the background light photons. Here we report the discovery of gamma-ray emission from the blazars H 2356 - 309 and 1ES 1101 - 232, at redshifts z = 0.165 and z = 0.186, respectively. Their unexpectedly hard spectra provide an upper limit on the background light at optical/near-infrared wavelengths that appears to be very close to the lower limit given by the integrated light of resolved galaxies. The background flux at these wavelengths accordingly seems to be strongly dominated by the direct starlight from galaxies, thus excluding a large contribution from other sources-in particular from the first stars formed. This result also indicates that intergalactic space is more transparent to gamma-rays than previously thought.

Search for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum in $${\\sqrt{s}}$$ = 13 TeV pp collisions at the LHC using the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; ...

2016-09-27

A search has been made for supersymmetry in a final state containing two photons and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search makes use of 3.2fb -1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. Using a combination of data-driven and Monte-Carlo-based approaches, the Standard Model background is estimated to be 0.27more » $$-0.10\\atop{+0.22}$$ events. No events are observed in the signal region; considering the expected background and its uncertainty, this observation implies a model-independent 95 % CL upper limit of 0.93 fb (3.0 events) on the visible cross section due to physics beyond the Standard Model. In the context of a generalized model of gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with a bino-like next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, this leads to a lower limit of 1650 GeV on the mass of a degenerate octet of gluino states, independent of the mass of the lighter bino-like neutralino.« less

Measurement of the B {/s 0} → ϕϕ branching fraction and search for the decay B 0 → ϕϕ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Affolder, A.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Anderson, J.; Andreassi, G.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Aquines Gutierrez, O.; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baldini, W.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Bel, L. J.; Bellee, V.; Belloli, N.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Benton, J.; Berezhnoy, A.; Bernet, R.; Bertolin, A.; Bettler, M.-O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bien, A.; Bifani, S.; Billoir, P.; Bird, T.; Birnkraut, A.; Bizzeti, A.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blouw, J.; Blusk, S.; Bocci, V.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bonivento, W.; Borghi, S.; Borsato, M.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Bowen, E.; Bozzi, C.; Braun, S.; Britsch, M.; Britton, T.; Brodzicka, J.; Brook, N. H.; Buchanan, E.; Bursche, A.; Buytaert, J.; Cadeddu, S.; Calabrese, R.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Campana, P.; Campora Perez, D.; Capriotti, L.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carniti, P.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Cassina, L.; Castillo Garcia, L.; Cattaneo, M.; Cauet, Ch.; Cavallero, G.; Cenci, R.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chefdeville, M.; Chen, S.; Cheung, S.-F.; Chiapolini, N.; Chrzaszcz, M.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P. E. L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H. V.; Closier, J.; Coco, V.; Cogan, J.; Cogneras, E.; Cogoni, V.; Cojocariu, L.; Collazuol, G.; Collins, P.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Contu, A.; Cook, A.; Coombes, M.; Coquereau, S.; Corti, G.; Corvo, M.; Couturier, B.; Cowan, G. A.; Craik, D. C.; Crocombe, A.; Cruz Torres, M.; Cunliffe, S.; Currie, R.; D'Ambrosio, C.; Dall'Occo, E.; Dalseno, J.; David, P. N. Y.; Davis, A.; De Bruyn, K.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Miranda, J. M.; De Paula, L.; De Simone, P.; Dean, C.-T.; Decamp, D.; Deckenhoff, M.; Del Buono, L.; Déléage, N.; Demmer, M.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Dey, B.; Di Canto, A.; Di Ruscio, F.; Dijkstra, H.; Donleavy, S.; Dordei, F.; Dorigo, M.; Dosil Suárez, A.; Dossett, D.; Dovbnya, A.; Dreimanis, K.; Dufour, L.; Dujany, G.; Dupertuis, F.; Durante, P.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziurda, A.; Dzyuba, A.; Easo, S.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; Eisenhardt, S.; Eitschberger, U.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; El Rifai, I.; Elsasser, Ch.; Ely, S.; Esen, S.; Evans, H. M.; Evans, T.; Falabella, A.; Färber, C.; Farinelli, C.; Farley, N.; Farry, S.; Fay, R.; Ferguson, D.; Fernandez Albor, V.; Ferrari, F.; Ferreira Rodrigues, F.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fiore, M.; Fiorini, M.; Firlej, M.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fiutowski, T.; Fohl, K.; Fol, P.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forty, R.; Francisco, O.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Frosini, M.; Fu, J.; Furfaro, E.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gallorini, S.; Gambetta, S.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; García Pardiñas, J.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Gascon, D.; Gaspar, C.; Gauld, R.; Gavardi, L.; Gazzoni, G.; Gerick, D.; Gersabeck, E.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gianelle, A.; Gianì, S.; Gibson, V.; Girard, O. G.; Giubega, L.; Gligorov, V. V.; Göbel, C.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gotti, C.; Grabalosa Gándara, M.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L. A.; Graugés, E.; Graverini, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greening, E.; Gregson, S.; Griffith, P.; Grillo, L.; Grünberg, O.; Gui, B.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Hadavizadeh, T.; Hadjivasiliou, C.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S. C.; Hall, S.; Hamilton, B.; Han, X.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harnew, N.; Harnew, S. T.; Harrison, J.; He, J.; Head, T.; Heijne, V.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Henry, L.; Hernando Morata, J. A.; van Herwijnen, E.; Heß, M.; Hicheur, A.; Hill, D.; Hoballah, M.; Hombach, C.; Hulsbergen, W.; Humair, T.; Hussain, N.; Hutchcroft, D.; Hynds, D.; Idzik, M.; Ilten, P.; Jacobsson, R.; Jaeger, A.; Jalocha, J.; Jans, E.; Jawahery, A.; Jing, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C. R.; Joram, C.; Jost, B.; Jurik, N.; Kandybei, S.; Kanso, W.; Karacson, M.; Karbach, T. M.; Karodia, S.; Kecke, M.; Kelsey, M.; Kenyon, I. R.; Kenzie, M.; Ketel, T.; Khanji, B.; Khurewathanakul, C.; Klaver, S.; Klimaszewski, K.; Kochebina, O.; Kolpin, M.; Komarov, I.; Koopman, R. F.; Koppenburg, P.; Kozeiha, M.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreplin, K.; Kreps, M.; Krocker, G.; Krokovny, P.; Kruse, F.; Krzemien, W.; Kucewicz, W.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Kuonen, A. K.; Kurek, K.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lambert, D.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; van Leerdam, J.; Lees, J.-P.; Lefèvre, R.; Leflat, A.; Lefrançois, J.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Leverington, B.; Li, Y.; Likhomanenko, T.; Liles, M.; Lindner, R.; Linn, C.; Lionetto, F.; Liu, B.; Liu, X.; Loh, D.; Longstaff, I.; Lopes, J. H.; Lucchesi, D.; Lucio Martinez, M.; Luo, H.; Lupato, A.; Luppi, E.; Lupton, O.; Lusiani, A.; Machefert, F.; Maciuc, F.; Maev, O.; Maguire, K.; Malde, S.; Malinin, A.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Manning, P.; Mapelli, A.; Maratas, J.; Marchand, J. F.; Marconi, U.; Marin Benito, C.; Marino, P.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martin, M.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez Santos, D.; Martinez Vidal, F.; Martins Tostes, D.; Massafferri, A.; Matev, R.; Mathad, A.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Mauri, A.; Maurin, B.; Mazurov, A.; McCann, M.; McCarthy, J.; McNab, A.; McNulty, R.; Meadows, B.; Meier, F.; Meissner, M.; Melnychuk, D.; Merk, M.; Michielin, E.; Milanes, D. A.; Minard, M.-N.; Mitzel, D. S.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Monroy, I. A.; Monteil, S.; Morandin, M.; Morawski, P.; Mordà, A.; Morello, M. J.; Moron, J.; Morris, A. B.; Mountain, R.; Muheim, F.; Muller, D.; Müller, J.; Müller, K.; Müller, V.; Mussini, M.; Muster, B.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nandi, A.; Nasteva, I.; Needham, M.; Neri, N.; Neubert, S.; Neufeld, N.; Neuner, M.; Nguyen, A. D.; Nguyen, T. D.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Niess, V.; Niet, R.; Nikitin, N.; Nikodem, T.; Ninci, D.; Novoselov, A.; O'Hanlon, D. P.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Ogilvy, S.; Okhrimenko, O.; Oldeman, R.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Osorio Rodrigues, B.; Otalora Goicochea, J. M.; Otto, A.; Owen, P.; Oyanguren, A.; Palano, A.; Palombo, F.; Palutan, M.; Panman, J.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Pappalardo, L. L.; Pappenheimer, C.; Parkes, C.; Passaleva, G.; Patel, G. D.; Patel, M.; Patrignani, C.; Pearce, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Perret, P.; Pescatore, L.; Petridis, K.; Petrolini, A.; Petruzzo, M.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pilař, T.; Pinci, D.; Pistone, A.; Piucci, A.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Poikela, T.; Polci, F.; Poluektov, A.; Polyakov, I.; Polycarpo, E.; Popov, A.; Popov, D.; Popovici, B.; Potterat, C.; Price, E.; Price, J. D.; Prisciandaro, J.; Pritchard, A.; Prouve, C.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Punzi, G.; Qian, W.; Quagliani, R.; Rachwal, B.; Rademacker, J. H.; Rama, M.; Rangel, M. S.; Raniuk, I.; Rauschmayr, N.; Raven, G.; Redi, F.; Reichert, S.; Reid, M. M.; dos Reis, A. C.; Ricciardi, S.; Richards, S.; Rihl, M.; Rinnert, K.; Rives Molina, V.; Robbe, P.; Rodrigues, A. B.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodriguez Lopez, J. A.; Rodriguez Perez, P.; Roiser, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Romero Vidal, A.; Ronayne, J. W.; Rotondo, M.; Rouvinet, J.; Ruf, T.; Ruiz, H.; Ruiz Valls, P.; Saborido Silva, J. J.; Sagidova, N.; Sail, P.; Saitta, B.; Salustino Guimaraes, V.; Sanchez Mayordomo, C.; Sanmartin Sedes, B.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santimaria, M.; Santovetti, E.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Saunders, D. M.; Savrina, D.; Schiller, M.; Schindler, H.; Schlupp, M.; Schmelling, M.; Schmelzer, T.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schubiger, M.; Schune, M.-H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Semennikov, A.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Sestini, L.; Seyfert, P.; Shapkin, M.; Shapoval, I.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, V.; Shires, A.; Siddi, B. G.; Silva Coutinho, R.; Silva de Oliveira, L.; Simi, G.; Sirendi, M.; Skidmore, N.; Skillicorn, I.; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, E.; Smith, E.; Smith, I. T.; Smith, J.; Smith, M.; Snoek, H.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Soler, F. J. P.; Soomro, F.; Souza, D.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Spradlin, P.; Sridharan, S.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, M.; Stahl, S.; Stefkova, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stenyakin, O.; Stevenson, S.; Stoica, S.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Stracka, S.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Sun, L.; Sutcliffe, W.; Swientek, K.; Swientek, S.; Syropoulos, V.; Szczekowski, M.; Szczypka, P.; Szumlak, T.; T'Jampens, S.; Tayduganov, A.; Tekampe, T.; Teklishyn, M.; Tellarini, G.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, C.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Todd, J.; Tolk, S.; Tomassetti, L.; Tonelli, D.; Topp-Joergensen, S.; Torr, N.; Tournefier, E.; Tourneur, S.; Trabelsi, K.; Tran, M. T.; Tresch, M.; Trisovic, A.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tsopelas, P.; Tuning, N.; Ukleja, A.; Ustyuzhanin, A.; Uwer, U.; Vacca, C.; Vagnoni, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallier, A.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vázquez Sierra, C.; Vecchi, S.; Velthuis, J. J.; Veltri, M.; Veneziano, G.; Vesterinen, M.; Viaud, B.; Vieira, D.; Vieites Diaz, M.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Vollhardt, A.; Volyanskyy, D.; Voong, D.; Vorobyev, A.; Vorobyev, V.; Voß, C.; de Vries, J. A.; Waldi, R.; Wallace, C.; Wallace, R.; Walsh, J.; Wandernoth, S.; Wang, J.; Ward, D. R.; Watson, N. K.; Websdale, D.; Weiden, A.; Whitehead, M.; Wilkinson, G.; Wilkinson, M.; Williams, M.; Williams, M. P.; Williams, M.; Williams, T.; Wilson, F. F.; Wimberley, J.; Wishahi, J.; Wislicki, W.; Witek, M.; Wormser, G.; Wotton, S. A.; Wright, S.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xu, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yu, J.; Yuan, X.; Yushchenko, O.; Zangoli, M.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zhokhov, A.; Zhong, L.; Zucchelli, S.

2015-10-01

Using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb-1 collected in pp collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, the B s 0 → ϕϕ branching fraction is measured to be B({B}_s^0to φ φ )=(1.84± 0.05(stat)± 0.07(syst)± 0.11({f}_s/{f}_d)± 0.12(norm))× 1{0}^{-5}, where f s / f d represents the ratio of the B s 0 to B 0 production cross-sections, and the B 0 → ϕK *(892)0 decay mode is used for normalization. This is the most precise measurement of this branching fraction to date, representing a factor five reduction in the statistical uncertainty compared with the previous best measurement. A search for the decay B 0 → ϕϕ is also made. No signal is observed, and an upper limit on the branching fraction is set as B({B}^0to φ φ )<2.8× 1{0}^{-8} at 90% confidence level. This is a factor of seven improvement compared to the previous best limit. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

New Particle Formation in the Mid-Latitude Upper Troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axisa, Duncan

Primary aerosol production due to new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere and the impact that this might have on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration can be of sufficient magnitude to contribute to the uncertainty in radiative forcing. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, new particle formation must be accurately defined, parametrized and accounted for in models. This research involved the deployment of instruments, data analysis and interpretation of particle formation events during the Mid-latitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment (MACPEX) campaign. The approach combined field measurements and observations with extensive data analysis and modeling to study the process of new particle formation and growth to CCN active sizes. Simultaneous measurements of O3, CO, ultrafine aerosol particles and surface area from a high-altitude research aircraft were used to study tropospheric-stratospheric mixing as well as the frequency and location of NPF. It was found that the upper troposphere was an active region in the production of new particles by gas-to-particle conversion, that nucleation was triggered by convective clouds and mixing processes, and that NPF occurred in regions with high relative humidity and low surface area. In certain cases, mesoscale and synoptic features enhanced mixing and facilitated the formation of new particles in the northern mid-latitudes. A modeling study of particle growth and CCN formation was done based on measured aerosol size distributions and modeled growth. The results indicate that when SO2 is of sufficient concentration NPF is a significant source of potential CCN in the upper troposphere. In conditions where convective cloud outflow eject high concentrations of SO2, a large number of new particles can form especially in the instance when the preexisting surface area is low. The fast growth of nucleated clusters produces a particle mode that becomes CCN active within 24-hours.

A Gaussian Processes Technique for Short-term Load Forecasting with Considerations of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohmi, Masataro; Mori, Hiroyuki

In this paper, an efficient method is proposed to deal with short-term load forecasting with the Gaussian Processes. Short-term load forecasting plays a key role to smooth power system operation such as economic load dispatching, unit commitment, etc. Recently, the deregulated and competitive power market increases the degree of uncertainty. As a result, it is more important to obtain better prediction results to save the cost. One of the most important aspects is that power system operator needs the upper and lower bounds of the predicted load to deal with the uncertainty while they require more accurate predicted values. The proposed method is based on the Bayes model in which output is expressed in a distribution rather than a point. To realize the model efficiently, this paper proposes the Gaussian Processes that consists of the Bayes linear model and kernel machine to obtain the distribution of the predicted value. The proposed method is successively applied to real data of daily maximum load forecasting.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Modeling uncertainty: quicksand for water temperature modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John M.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the reference, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.

Measurement Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Michael

Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

Uncertainty Analysis of NASA Glenn's 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Julia E.; Hubbard, Erin P.; Walter, Joel A.; McElroy, Tyler

2016-01-01

An analysis was performed to determine the measurement uncertainty of the Mach Number of the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This paper details the analysis process used, including methods for handling limited data and complicated data correlations. Due to the complexity of the equations used, a Monte Carlo Method was utilized for this uncertainty analysis. A summary of the findings are presented as pertains to understanding what the uncertainties are, how they impact various research tests in the facility, and methods of reducing the uncertainties in the future.

A lower limit on the age of the universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaboyer, B.; Demarque, P.; Kernan, P.J.

1996-02-16

A detailed numerical study was designed and conducted to estimate the absolute age and the uncertainty in age (with confidence limits) of the oldest globular clusters in our galaxy, and hence to put a robust lower bound on the age of the universe. Estimates of the uncertainty range and distribution in the input parameters of stellar evolution codes were used to produce 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of stellar isochrones, which were then used to derive ages for the 17 oldest globular clusters. A probability distribution for the mean age of these systems was derived by incorporating the observational uncertainties inmore » chrones. The dominant contribution to the width of the distribution (approximately {sup +}{sub -}5) magnitudes. Subdominant contributions came from the choice of the color table used to translate theoretical luminosities and temperatures to observed magnitudes and colors, as well as from theoretical uncertainties in heavy element abundances and mixing length. The one-sided 95 percent confidence limit lower bound for this distribution occurs at an age of 12.07 X 10{sup 9} years, and the median age for the distribution is 14.56 X 10{sup 9} years. These age limits, when compared with the Hubble age estimate, put powerful constraints on cosmology. 41 refs., 2 figs.« less

Treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty: the value of subsequent euthanasia.

PubMed

Savulescu, Julian

1994-01-01

This paper examines how decisions to limit treatment to critically ill patients under uncertainty can be made rationally. Expected utility theory offers one way of making rational decisions under uncertainty. One problem with using this approach is that we may not know the value of each option. One rational course open is to treat until further information becomes available. However, treatment can limit the range of options open. With treatment, a patient may recover such that he no longer requires life-supporting treatment. However, his life may be not worth living. If active euthanasia of 'non-terminal' conditions is prohibited, the option of dying will no longer be available. Taking a rational 'wait and see' course may result in being trapped within an unbearable life. On the other hand, sometimes present practice 'lets nature take its course'. Critically ill patients are allowed to die because it is believed that their lives will be not worth living. It is likely that some patients are allowed to die when there is some objective chance of worthwhile future life. This paper argues that a policy of treating critically ill patients until the nature of future options can be better evaluated, in company with an offer of subsequent euthanasia where appropriate, allows a more rational and humane approach to treatment limitation decisions under uncertainty.

Uncertainty analysis of gas flow measurements using clearance-sealed piston provers in the range from 0.0012 g min-1 to 60 g min-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobovnik, G.; Kutin, J.; Bajsić, I.

2016-08-01

This paper deals with an uncertainty analysis of gas flow measurements using a compact, high-speed, clearance-sealed realization of a piston prover. A detailed methodology for the uncertainty analysis, covering the components due to the gas density, dimensional and time measurements, the leakage flow, the density correction factor and the repeatability, is presented. The paper also deals with the selection of the isothermal and adiabatic measurement models, the treatment of the leakage flow and discusses the need for averaging multiple consecutive readings of the piston prover. The analysis is prepared for the flow range (50 000:1) covered by the three interchangeable flow cells. The results show that using the adiabatic measurement model and averaging the multiple readings, the estimated expanded measurement uncertainty of the gas mass flow rate is less than 0.15% in the flow range above 0.012 g min-1, whereas it increases for lower mass flow rates due to the leakage flow related effects. At the upper end of the measuring range, using the adiabatic instead of the isothermal measurement model, as well as averaging multiple readings, proves important.

Fractional order uncertainty estimator based hierarchical sliding mode design for a class of fractional order non-holonomic chained system.

PubMed

Deepika; Kaur, Sandeep; Narayan, Shiv

2018-06-01

This paper proposes a novel fractional order sliding mode control approach to address the issues of stabilization as well as tracking of an N-dimensional extended chained form of fractional order non-holonomic system. Firstly, the hierarchical fractional order terminal sliding manifolds are selected to procure the desired objectives in finite time. Then, a sliding mode control law is formulated which provides robustness against various system uncertainties or external disturbances. In addition, a novel fractional order uncertainty estimator is deduced mathematically to estimate and mitigate the effects of uncertainties, which also excludes the requirement of their upper bounds. Due to the omission of discontinuous control action, the proposed algorithm ensures a chatter-free control input. Moreover, the finite time stability of the closed loop system has been proved analytically through well known Mittag-Leffler and Fractional Lyapunov theorems. Finally, the proposed methodology is validated with MATLAB simulations on two examples including an application of fractional order non-holonomic wheeled mobile robot and its performances are also compared with the existing control approach. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive extended-state observer-based fault tolerant attitude control for spacecraft with reaction wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Dechao; Chen, Xiaoqian; de Ruiter, Anton; Xiao, Bing

2018-04-01

This study presents an adaptive second-order sliding control scheme to solve the attitude fault tolerant control problem of spacecraft subject to system uncertainties, external disturbances and reaction wheel faults. A novel fast terminal sliding mode is preliminarily designed to guarantee that finite-time convergence of the attitude errors can be achieved globally. Based on this novel sliding mode, an adaptive second-order observer is then designed to reconstruct the system uncertainties and the actuator faults. One feature of the proposed observer is that the design of the observer does not necessitate any priori information of the upper bounds of the system uncertainties and the actuator faults. In view of the reconstructed information supplied by the designed observer, a second-order sliding mode controller is developed to accomplish attitude maneuvers with great robustness and precise tracking accuracy. Theoretical stability analysis proves that the designed fault tolerant control scheme can achieve finite-time stability of the closed-loop system, even in the presence of reaction wheel faults and system uncertainties. Numerical simulations are also presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed control scheme over existing methodologies.

Determination of the Far-Infrared Cosmic Background Using COBE/DIRBE and WHAM Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, N.; Arendt, R. G.; Dwek, E.; Haffner, L. M.; Hauser, M. G.; Reynolds, R. J.

2007-01-01

Determination of the cosmic infrared background (CIB) at far infrared wavelengths using COBE/DIRBE data is limited by the accuracy to which foreground interplanetary and Galactic dust emission can be modeled and subtracted. Previous determinations of the far infrared CIB (e.g., Hauser et al. 1998) were based on the detection of residual isotropic emission in skymaps from which the emission from interplanetary dust and the neutral interstellar medium were removed. In this paper we use the Wisconsin H(alpha) Mapper (WHAM) Northern Sky Survey as a tracer of the ionized medium to examine the effect of this foreground component on determination of the CIB. We decompose the DIRBE far infrared data for five high Galactic latitude regions into HI- and H(alpha)- correlated components and a residual component. Eased on FUSE H2 absorption line observations, the contribution of a11 H2-correlated component is expected to he negligible. We find the H(alpha)-correlated component to be consistent with zero for each region, and we find that addition of an H(alpha)-correlated component in modeling the foreground emission has negligible effect on derived CIB results. Our CIB detections and 2(sigma) upper limits are essentially the same as those derived by Hauser et al. and are given by (nu)I(sub nu)(nW/sq m/sr) < 75, < 32, 25+/-8, and 13+/-3 at gamma = 60, 100, 140, and 240 microns, respectively. Our residuals have not been subjected to a detailed anisotropy test, so our CIB results do not supersede those of Hauser et al. Mie derive upper limits on the 100 micron emissivity of the ionized medium that are typically about 40% of the 100 micron emissivity of the neutral atomic medium. This low value may be caused in part by a lower dust-to-gas mass ratio in the ionized medium than in the neutral medium, and in part by a shortcoming of using H(alpha) intensity as a tracer of far infrared emission. If H(alpha) is not a reliable tracer, our analysis would underestimate the emissivity of the ionized medium, and both our analysis and the Hauser et al. analysis may slightly overestimate the CIB. We estimate the possible effect for the CIB to be only about 5%, which is much smaller than the quoted uncertainties. From a comparison of the Hauser et al. CIB results with the integrated galaxy brightness from Spitzer source counts, we obtain 2(sigma) upper limits on a possible diffuse CIB component that are 26 nW/sq m/sr at 140 microns and 8.5 nW/sq m/sr at 240 microns.

Socioeconomic Implications of Achieving 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Climate Targets under Scientific Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, X.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Shiogama, H.; Emori, S.; LIU, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Hijioka, Y.; Masui, T.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty exists in the temperature projections, including contributions from carbon cycle, climate system and aerosols. For the integrated assessment models (IAMs), like DICE, FUND and PAGE, however, the scientific uncertainties mainly rely on the distribution of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. This study aims at evaluating the emission pathways by limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC or 1.5 ºC after 2100 considering scientific uncertainties, and exploring how socioeconomic indicators are affected by such scientific uncertainties. We use a stochastic version of the SCM4OPT, with an uncertainty measurement by considering alternative ranges of key parameters. Three climate cases, namely, i) base case of SSP2, ii) limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC after 2100 and iii) limiting temperature increase below 1.5 ºC after 2100, and three types of probabilities - i) >66% probability or likely, ii) >50% probability or more likely than not and iii) the mean of the probability distribution, are considered in the study. The results show that, i) for the 2.0ºC case, the likely CO2 reduction rate in 2100 ranges from 75.5%-102.4%, with mean value of 88.1%, and 93.0%-113.1% (mean 102.5%) for the 1.5ºC case; ii) a likely range of forcing effect is found for the 2.0 ºC case (2.7-3.9 Wm-2) due to scientific uncertainty, and 1.9-3.1 Wm-2 for the 1.5 ºC case; iii) the carbon prices within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 3 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case; iv) the abatement costs within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 4 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case. Nine C4MIP carbon cycle models and nineteen CMIP3 AOGCMs are used to account for the scientific uncertainties, following MAGICC 6.0. These uncertainties will result in a likely radiative forcing range of 6.1-7.5 Wm-2 and a likely temperature increase of 3.1-4.5 ºC in 2100 for the base case of SSP2. If we evaluate the 2 ºC target by limiting the temperature increase, a likely difference of up to 20.7 GtCO2-eq greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2100 will occur in the assessment, or 14.4 GtCO2-eq GHGs difference for the 1.5 ºC case. The scientific uncertainties have significant impacts on evaluating costs of climate change and an appropriate representation of such uncertainties is important in the socioeconomic assessment.

Reducing Uncertainty for Acute Febrile Illness in Resource-Limited Settings: The Current Diagnostic Landscape

PubMed Central

Robinson, Matthew L.; Manabe, Yukari C.

2017-01-01

Diagnosing the cause of acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings is important—to give the correct antimicrobials to patients who need them, to prevent unnecessary antimicrobial use, to detect emerging infectious diseases early, and to guide vaccine deployment. A variety of approaches are yielding more rapid and accurate tests that can detect more pathogens in a wider variety of settings. After decades of slow progress in diagnostics for acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings, a wave of converging advancements will enable clinicians in resource-limited settings to reduce uncertainty for the diagnosis of acute febrile illness. PMID:28719277

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

The large-scale microwave background anisotropy in decaying particle cosmology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panek, Miroslaw

1988-01-01

The quadrupole anisotropy of the microwave background radiation in cosmological models with decaying particles is investigated. A conservative upper limit on value of the quadrupole moment combined with other constraints gives an upper limit on the redshift of the decay z(d) of less than 3-6.

An Overview of OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS), a SPARC Emerging Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Manney, G. L.; Hoor, P. M.; Bourassa, A. E.; Braathen, G.; Chang, K. L.; Hegglin, M. I.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Leblanc, T.; Livesey, N. J.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Stiller, G. P.; Tegtmeier, S.; Thouret, V.; Voigt, C.; Walker, K. A.

2017-12-01

The distribution of tracers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) shows large spatial and temporal variability because of interactions of transport, chemical, and mixing processes near the tropopause, as well as variations in the location of the tropopause itself. This strongly affects quantitative estimates of the impact of radiatively active substances, including ozone and water vapour, on surface temperatures, and complicates diagnosis of dynamical processes such as stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE). The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) emerging activity OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS) aims to reduce the uncertainties in trend estimates by accounting for these dynamically induced sources of variability. Achieving these goals by using existing UTLS trace gas observations from aircraft, ground-based, balloon and satellite platforms requires a consistent analysis of these different data with respect to the tropopause or the jets. As a central task for OCTAV-UTLS, we are developing and applying common metrics, calculated using the same reanalysis datasets, to compare UTLS data using geophysically-based coordinate systems including tropopause and upper tropospheric jet relative coordinates. In addition to assessing present day measurement capabilities, OCTAV-UTLS will assess gaps in current geographical / temporal sampling of the UTLS that limit our ability to determine atmospheric composition variability and trends. This talk will provide an overview of the OCTAV-UTLS activity and some examples of initial calculations of geophysically-based coordinates and comparisons of remapped data.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

10 CFR Appendix B to Subpart F of... - Sampling Plan For Enforcement Testing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... performance of the n 1 units in the first sample as follows: ER18MR98.012 Step 5. Compute the upper control limit (UCL1) and lower control limit (LCL1) for the mean of the first sample using the applicable DOE... the mean of the first sample (x 1) with the upper and lower control limits (UCL1 and LCL1) to...

Assessment of check-dam groundwater recharge with water-balance calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djuma, Hakan; Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Eliades, Marinos

2017-04-01

Studies on the enhancement of groundwater recharge by check-dams in arid and semi-arid environments mainly focus on deriving water infiltration rates from the check-dam ponding areas. This is usually achieved by applying simple water balance models, more advanced models (e.g., two dimensional groundwater models) and field tests (e.g., infiltrometer test or soil pit tests). Recharge behind the check-dam can be affected by the built-up of sediment as a result of erosion in the upstream watershed area. This natural process can increase the uncertainty in the estimates of the recharged water volume, especially for water balance calculations. Few water balance field studies of individual check-dams have been presented in the literature and none of them presented associated uncertainties of their estimates. The objectives of this study are i) to assess the effect of a check-dam on groundwater recharge from an ephemeral river; and ii) to assess annual sedimentation at the check-dam during a 4-year period. The study was conducted on a check-dam in the semi-arid island of Cyprus. Field campaigns were carried out to measure water flow, water depth and check-dam topography in order to establish check-dam water height, volume, evaporation, outflow and recharge relations. Topographic surveys were repeated at the end of consecutive hydrological years to estimate the sediment built up in the reservoir area of the check dam. Also, sediment samples were collected from the check-dam reservoir area for bulk-density analyses. To quantify the groundwater recharge, a water balance model was applied at two locations: at the check-dam and corresponding reservoir area, and at a 4-km stretch of the river bed without check-dam. Results showed that a check-dam with a storage capacity of 25,000 m3 was able to recharge to the aquifer, in four years, a total of 12 million m3 out of the 42 million m3 of measured (or modelled) streamflow. Recharge from the analyzed 4-km long river section without check-dam was estimated to be 1 million m3. Upper and lower limits of prediction intervals were computed to assess the uncertainties of the results. The model was rerun with these values and resulted in recharge values of 0.4 m3 as lower and 38 million m3 as upper limit. The sediment survey in the check-dam reservoir area showed that the reservoir area was filled with 2,000 to 3,000 tons of sediment after one rainfall season. This amount of sediment corresponds to 0.2 to 2 t h-1 y-1 sediment yield at the watershed level and reduces the check-dam storage capacity by approximately 10%. Results indicate that check-dams are valuable structures for increasing groundwater resources, but special attention should be given to soil erosion occurring in the upstream area and the resulting sediment built-up in the check-dam reservoir area. This study has received funding from the EU FP7 RECARE Project (GA 603498)

Subaru HDS transmission spectroscopy of the transiting extrasolar planet HD209458b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narita, N.; Suto, Y.; Winn, J. N.; Turner, E. L.; Aoki, W.; Leigh, C. J.; Sato, B.; Tamura, M.; Yamada, T.

2006-02-01

We have searched for absorption in several common atomic species due to the atmosphere or exosphere of the transiting extrasolar planet HD 209458b, using high precision optical spectra obtained with the Subaru High Dispersion Spectrograph (HDS). Previously we reported an upper limit on Hα absorption of 0.1% (3σ) within a 5.1Å band. Using the same procedure, we now report upper limits on absorption due to the optical transitions of Na D, Li, Hα, Hβ, Hγ, Fe, and Ca. The 3σ upper limit for each transition is approximately 1% within a 0.3Å band (the core of the line), and a few tenths of a per cent within a 2Å band (the full line width). The wide-band results are close to the expected limit due to photon-counting (Poisson) statistics, although in the narrow-band case we have encountered unexplained systematic errors at a few times the Poisson level. These results are consistent with all previously reported detections (Charbonneau et al. 2002, ApJ, 568, 377) and upper limits (Bundy & Marcy 2000, PASP, 112, 1421; Moutou et al. 2001, A&A, 371, 260), but are significantly more sensitive yet achieved from ground based observations.

Cantilever spring constant calibration using laser Doppler vibrometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohler, Benjamin

2007-06-15

Uncertainty in cantilever spring constants is a critical issue in atomic force microscopy (AFM) force measurements. Though numerous methods exist for calibrating cantilever spring constants, the accuracy of these methods can be limited by both the physical models themselves as well as uncertainties in their experimental implementation. Here we report the results from two of the most common calibration methods, the thermal tune method and the Sader method. These were implemented on a standard AFM system as well as using laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). Using LDV eliminates some uncertainties associated with optical lever detection on an AFM. It also offersmore » considerably higher signal to noise deflection measurements. We find that AFM and LDV result in similar uncertainty in the calibrated spring constants, about 5%, using either the thermal tune or Sader methods provided that certain limitations of the methods and instrumentation are observed.« less

A new upper bound for the norm of interval matrices with application to robust stability analysis of delayed neural networks.

PubMed

Faydasicok, Ozlem; Arik, Sabri

2013-08-01

The main problem with the analysis of robust stability of neural networks is to find the upper bound norm for the intervalized interconnection matrices of neural networks. In the previous literature, the major three upper bound norms for the intervalized interconnection matrices have been reported and they have been successfully applied to derive new sufficient conditions for robust stability of delayed neural networks. One of the main contributions of this paper will be the derivation of a new upper bound for the norm of the intervalized interconnection matrices of neural networks. Then, by exploiting this new upper bound norm of interval matrices and using stability theory of Lyapunov functionals and the theory of homomorphic mapping, we will obtain new sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of neural networks with discrete time delays under parameter uncertainties and with respect to continuous and slope-bounded activation functions. The results obtained in this paper will be shown to be new and they can be considered alternative results to previously published corresponding results. We also give some illustrative and comparative numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed robust stability condition. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type-Ia Supernova Rates to Redshift 2.4 from Clash: The Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graur, O.; Rodney, S. A.; Maoz, D.; Riess, A. G.; Jha, S. W.; Postman, M.; Dahlen, T.; Holoien, T. W.-S.; McCully, C.; Patel, B.;