Leading causes of child mortality in Brazil, in 1990 and 2015: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study.

PubMed

França, Elisabeth Barboza; Lansky, Sônia; Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; França, Julia Santiago; Teixeira, Renato; Porto, Denise; Almeida, Marcia Furquim de; Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho de; Szwarcwald, Célia Landman; Mooney, Meghan; Naghavi, Mohsen; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales

2017-05-01

To analyze under-5 mortality rates and leading causes in Brazil and states in 1990 and 2015, using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 estimates. The main sources of data for all-causes under-5 mortality and live births estimates were the mortality information system, surveys, and censuses. Proportions and rates per 1,000 live births (LB) were calculated for total deaths and leading causes. Estimates of under-5 deaths in Brazil were 191,505 in 1990, and 51,226 in 2015, 90% of which were infant deaths. The rates per 1,000 LB showed a reduction of 67.6% from 1990 to 2015, achieving the proposed target established by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The reduction generally was more than 60% in states, with a faster reduction in the poorest Northeast region. The ratio of the highest and lowest rates in the states decreased from 4.9 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2015, indicating a reduction in socioeconomic regional disparities. Although prematurity showed a 72% reduction, it still remains as the leading cause of death (COD), followed by diarrheal diseases in 1990, and congenital anomalies, birth asphyxia and septicemia neonatal in 2015. Under-5 mortality has decreased over the past 25 years, with reduction of regional disparities. However, pregnancy and childbirth-related causes remain as major causes of death, together with congenital anomalies. Intersectoral and specific public health policies must be continued to improve living conditions and health care in order to achieve further reduction of under-5 mortality rates in Brazil.

Governance matters: an ecological association between governance and child mortality

PubMed Central

Lin, Ro-Ting; Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-01-01

Background Governance of a country may have widespread effects on the health of its population, yet little is known about the effect of governance on child mortality in a country that is undergoing urbanization, economic development, and disease control. Methods We obtained indicators of six dimensions of governance (perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) and national under-5 mortality rates for 149 countries between 1996 and 2010. We applied a semi-parametric generalized additive mixed model to examine associations after controlling for the effects of development factors (urbanization level and economy), disease control factors (hygienic conditions and vaccination rates), health expenditures, air quality, and time. Results Governance, development, and disease control showed clear inverse relations with the under-5 mortality rate (p<0.001). Per unit increases in governance, development, and disease control factors, the child mortality rate had a 0.901-, 0.823-, and 0.922-fold decrease, respectively, at fixed levels of the other two factors. Conclusions In the effort to reduce the global under-5 mortality rate, addressing a country's need for better governance is as important as improvements in development and disease control. PMID:24711600

Governance matters: an ecological association between governance and child mortality.

PubMed

Lin, Ro-Ting; Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-09-01

Governance of a country may have widespread effects on the health of its population, yet little is known about the effect of governance on child mortality in a country that is undergoing urbanization, economic development, and disease control. We obtained indicators of six dimensions of governance (perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) and national under-5 mortality rates for 149 countries between 1996 and 2010. We applied a semi-parametric generalized additive mixed model to examine associations after controlling for the effects of development factors (urbanization level and economy), disease control factors (hygienic conditions and vaccination rates), health expenditures, air quality, and time. Governance, development, and disease control showed clear inverse relations with the under-5 mortality rate (p<0.001). Per unit increases in governance, development, and disease control factors, the child mortality rate had a 0.901-, 0.823-, and 0.922-fold decrease, respectively, at fixed levels of the other two factors. In the effort to reduce the global under-5 mortality rate, addressing a country's need for better governance is as important as improvements in development and disease control. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-03-30

Exploring the effects of different types of PM 2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM 2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM 2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM 2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM 2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM 2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM 2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM 2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization's (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa

PubMed Central

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-01-01

Exploring the effects of different types of PM2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly. PMID:28358348

First do no harm: the impact of recent armed conflict on maternal and child health in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

O'Hare, Bernadette A M; Southall, David P

2007-01-01

Objectives To compare the rates of under-5 mortality, malnutrition, maternal mortality and other factors which influence health in countries with and without recent conflict. To compare central government expenditure on defence, education and health in countries with and without recent conflict. To summarize the amount spent on SALW and the main legal suppliers to countries in Sub-Saharan African countries (SSA), and to summarize licensed production of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) in these countries. Design We compared the under-5 mortality rate in 2004 and the adjusted maternal mortality ratio in SSA which have and have not experienced recent armed conflict (post-1990). We also compared the percentage of children who are underweight in both sets of countries, and expenditure on defence, health and education. Setting Demographic data and central government expenditure details (1994-2004) were taken from UNICEF's The State of the World's Children 2006 report. Main outcome measures Under-5 mortality, adjusted maternal mortality, and government expenditure. Results 21 countries have and 21 countries have not experienced recent conflict in this dataset of 42 countries in SSA. Median under-5 mortality in countries with recent conflict is 197/1000 live births, versus 137/1000 live births in countries without recent conflict. In countries which have experienced recent conflict, a median of 27% of under-5s were moderately underweight, versus 22% in countries without recent conflict. The median adjusted maternal mortality in countries with recent conflict was 1000/100,000 births versus 690/100,000 births in countries without recent conflict. Median reported maternal mortality ratio is also significantly higher in countries with recent conflict. Expenditure on health and education is significantly lower and expenditure on defence significantly higher if there has been recent conflict. Conclusions There appears to be an association between recent conflict and higher rates of under-5 mortality, malnutrition and maternal mortality. Governments spend more on defence and less on health and education if there has been a recent conflict. SALW are the main weapon used and France and the UK appear to be the two main suppliers of SALW to SSA. PMID:18065709

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Weinberger, Kate R; Haykin, Leah; Eliot, Melissa N; Schwartz, Joel D; Gasparrini, Antonio; Wellenius, Gregory A

2017-10-01

There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intensive Care Unit Admission and Death Rates of Infants Admitted With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Mexico.

PubMed

Vizcarra-Ugalde, Sergio; Rico-Hernández, Montserrat; Monjarás-Ávila, César; Bernal-Silva, Sofía; Garrocho-Rangel, Maria E; Ochoa-Pérez, Uciel R; Noyola, Daniel E

2016-11-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common etiology for acute respiratory infection hospital admissions in young children. Case fatality rates for hospitalized patients range between 0% and 3.4%. Recent reports indicate that deaths associated with RSV are uncommon in developed countries. However, the role of this virus as a current cause of mortality in other countries requires further examination. Children with RSV infection admitted between May 2003 and December 2014 to a level 2 specialty hospital in Mexico were included in this analysis. Underlying risk factors, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and condition on discharge were assessed to determine the ICU admission and death rates associated to RSV infection. We analyzed data of 1153 patients with RSV infection in whom information regarding underlying illnesses and discharge status was available. Sixty patients (5.2 %) were admitted to the ICU and 12 (1.04 %) died. Relevant underlying conditions were present in 320 (27.7%) patients. Infants with underlying respiratory disorders (excluding asthma) and a history of prematurity had high ICU admission rates (17.1% and 13.8%, respectively). Mortality rates were highest for infants with respiratory disease (excluding asthma) (7.3%), cardiovascular diseases (5.9%) and neurologic disorders (5.3%). The ICU admission and death rates were higher in infants <6 months of age than in other age groups. The ICU admission rate and mortality rate in Mexican infants hospitalized with RSV infection were 5.2% and 1%, respectively. Mortality rates were high in infants with respiratory, cardiovascular and neurologic disorders.

Causes of Early Childhood Deaths in Urban Dhaka, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Halder, Amal K.; Gurley, Emily S.; Naheed, Aliya; Saha, Samir K.; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Arifeen, Shams El; Sazzad, Hossain M. S.; Kenah, Eben; Luby, Stephen P.

2009-01-01

Data on causes of early childhood death from low-income urban areas are limited. The nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 estimates 65 children died per 1,000 live births. We investigated rates and causes of under-five deaths in an urban community near two large pediatric hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh and evaluated the impact of different recall periods. We conducted a survey in 2006 for 6971 households and a follow up survey in 2007 among eligible remaining households or replacement households. The initial survey collected information for all children under five years old who died in the previous year; the follow up survey on child deaths in the preceding five years. We compared mortality rates based on 1-year recall to the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year. The initial survey identified 58 deaths among children <5 years in the preceding year. The follow up survey identified a mean 53 deaths per year in the preceding five years (SD±7.3). Under-five mortality rate was 34 and neonatal mortality was 15 per thousand live births during 2006–2007. The leading cause of under-five death was respiratory infections (22%). The mortality rates among children under 4 years old for the two time periods (most recent 1-year recall and the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year) were similar (36 versus 32). The child mortality in urban Dhaka was substantially lower than the national rate. Mortality rates were not affected by recall periods between 1 and 5 years. PMID:19997507

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

PubMed

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-09-18

To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016–2020. Methods An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Results Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1–4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016–2020, based on the predictive model. Conclusion Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. PMID:28928178

Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Nacher, Mathieu; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Chavance, Michel

2013-11-08

To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants. Longitudinal study. 193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09. Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects. National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects. By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

Pneumonia Mortality in Children Aged <5 Years in 56 Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Trends from 1960 to 2012.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Cao, Qing; Ding, Cheng; Cui, Yuanxia; Zhou, Yuqing; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Xu, Kaijin; Ruan, Bing; Li, Lanjuan

2017-10-30

Pneumonia is now the second leading cause of death for children aged <5 years worldwide. However, analyses of the long-term evolution of under-5 mortality from pneumonia are still scarce in the literature. We aimed to explore long-term trends of under-5 mortality from pneumonia in 56 countries from 1960 to 2012. Data on under-5 mortality from pneumonia were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. Long-term trends were assessed for 56 countries and for 4 national income transition groups. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to detect distinct period segments of long-term trends and estimate the annual percent of changes of each period segment. The average mortality rate from pneumonia for children aged 0-4 years in 56 countries declined from 163.0 per 100000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 119.4 to 212.8) in 1960 to 9.9 per 100000 children (95% CI, 6.4 to 13.4) in 2012, with an average annual percent of change of -5.6% (95% CI, -7.2% to -3.9%). The temporal trends of childhood mortality were different between national income transition groups. Our findings suggest a striking overall downward trend in under-5 mortality from pneumonia between 1960 and 2012. However, the rate and absolute terms of decline differ by national income transition group. These variable patterns between national income transition groups may inform further intervention setting and priority setting. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

26 CFR 25.7520-3 - Limitation on the application of section 7520.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... beneficial interests. If, under the provisions of this paragraph (b), the interest rate and mortality... trust, the trust property is to be distributed to the donor's child. The section 7520 rate for the month.... [Reserved] For further guidance, see § 25.7520-3T(b)(2)(v) Example 5. (3) Mortality component. The mortality...

26 CFR 25.7520-3 - Limitation on the application of section 7520.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... beneficial interests. If, under the provisions of this paragraph (b), the interest rate and mortality... trust, the trust property is to be distributed to the donor's child. The section 7520 rate for the month.... [Reserved] For further guidance, see § 25.7520-3T(b)(2)(v) Example 5. (3) Mortality component. The mortality...

The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal.

PubMed Central

Ahmad, O. B.; Lopez, A. D.; Inoue, M.

2000-01-01

The present paper examines, describes and documents country-specific trends in under-five mortality rates (i.e., mortality among children under five years of age) in the 1990s. Our analysis updates previous studies by UNICEF, the World Bank and the United Nations. It identifies countries and WHO regions where sustained improvement has occurred and those where setbacks are evident. A consistent series of estimates of under-five mortality rate is provided and an indication is given of historical trends during the period 1950-2000 for both developed and developing countries. It is estimated that 10.5 million children aged 0-4 years died in 1999, about 2.2 million or 17.5% fewer than a decade earlier. On average about 15% of newborn children in Africa are expected to die before reaching their fifth birthday. The corresponding figures for many other parts of the developing world are in the range 3-8% and that for Europe is under 2%. During the 1990s the decline in child mortality decelerated in all the WHO regions except the Western Pacific but there is no widespread evidence of rising child mortality rates. At the country level there are exceptions in southern Africa where the prevalence of HIV is extremely high and in Asia where a few countries are beset by economic difficulties. The slowdown in the rate of decline is of particular concern in Africa and South-East Asia because it is occurring at relatively high levels of mortality, and in countries experiencing severe economic dislocation. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues in Africa, particularly southern Africa, and in parts of Asia, further reductions in child mortality become increasingly unlikely until substantial progress in controlling the spread of HIV is achieved. PMID:11100613

Can we achieve Millennium Development Goal 4? New analysis of country trends and forecasts of under-5 mortality to 2015.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L; Laakso, Thomas; Shibuya, Kenji; Hill, Kenneth; Lopez, Alan D

2007-09-22

Global efforts have increased the accuracy and timeliness of estimates of under-5 mortality; however, these estimates fail to use all data available, do not use transparent and reproducible methods, do not distinguish predictions from measurements, and provide no indication of uncertainty around point estimates. We aimed to develop new reproducible methods and reanalyse existing data to elucidate detailed time trends. We merged available databases, added to them when possible, and then applied Loess regression to estimate past trends and forecast to 2015 for 172 countries. We developed uncertainty estimates based on different model specifications and estimated levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal, and childhood mortality. Global under-5 mortality has fallen from 110 (109-110) per 1000 in 1980 to 72 (70-74) per 1000 in 2005. Child deaths worldwide have decreased from 13.5 (13.4-13.6) million in 1980 to an estimated 9.7 (9.5-10.0) million in 2005. Global under-5 mortality is expected to decline by 27% from 1990 to 2015, substantially less than the target of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) of a 67% decrease. Several regions in Latin America, north Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and southeast Asia have had consistent annual rates of decline in excess of 4% over 35 years. Global progress on MDG4 is dominated by slow reductions in sub-Saharan Africa, which also has the slowest rates of decline in fertility. Globally, we are not doing a better job of reducing child mortality now than we were three decades ago. Further improvements in the quality and timeliness of child-mortality measurements should be possible by more fully using existing datasets and applying standard analytical strategies.

South African child deaths 1990–2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kate J.; Lawn, Joy E.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Mahy, Mary; Dorrington, Rob E.; Phillips, Heston; Bradshaw, Debbie; Nannan, Nadine; Msemburi, William; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Walker, Neff P.; Sanders, David; Jackson, Debra

2013-01-01

Objective: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. Methods: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. Results: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37–39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. Conclusion: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall. PMID:23863402

Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Rostami, Mehran; Jalilian, Abdollah; Hamzeh, Behrooz; Laghaei, Zahra

2015-01-01

The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Hill, Kenneth; You, Danzhen; Inoue, Mie; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Hill, Kenneth; Alkema, Leontine; Cousens, Simon; Croft, Trevor; Guillot, Michel; Pedersen, Jon; Walker, Neff; Wilmoth, John; Jones, Gareth

2012-01-01

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths. PMID:22952441

Using the Lives Saved Tool to aid country planning in meeting mortality targets: a case study from Mali.

PubMed

Keita, Youssouf; Sangho, Hamadoun; Roberton, Timothy; Vignola, Emilia; Traoré, Mariam; Munos, Melinda

2017-11-07

Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali's MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions. The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali's ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention. If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2. This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.

Treating HIV infected mothers reduces mortality in children under 5 years of age to levels seen in children of HIV uninfected mothers: evidence from rural South Africa

PubMed Central

Ndirangu, James; Newell, Marie-Louise; Thorne, Claire; Bland, Ruth

2012-01-01

Background Maternal and child survival are highly correlated, but the contribution of HIV infection on this relationship, and in particular the impact of HIV treatment has not been quantified. We estimate the association between maternal HIV and treatment and under-5 child mortality in a rural population in South Africa. Methods All children born between January 2000-January 2007 in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area were included. Maternal HIV status information was available from HIV surveillance; maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART) from the HIV Treatment Programme database and linked to surveillance data. Mortality rates were computed as deaths per 1000 person-years observed. Time-varying maternal HIV effect (positive, negative, ART) on U5MR was assessed in Cox regression, adjusting for other factors associated with under-5 mortality. Results 9,068 mothers delivered 12,052 children, of whom 947 (7.9%) died before age 5. Infant mortality rate (IMR) declined by 49% from 69.0 in 2000 to 35.5 in 2006 deaths per 1000 person-years observed; a significantly decline was observed post-ART (2004-2006). The estimated proportion of deaths across all age groups were higher among the children born to the HIV-positive and HIV-not reported status women than among children of HIV-negative women. Multivariably, mortality in children of mothers on ART was not significantly different from children of HIV-negative mothers (aHR 1.29, 0.53-3.17; p=0.572). Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of maternal HIV treatment with direct benefits of improved survival among all children under-5. Timely HIV treatment for eligible women is required to benefit both mothers and children. PMID:22267472

Perinatal and infant mortality in urban slums under I.C.D.S. scheme.

PubMed

Thora, S; Awadhiya, S; Chansoriya, M; Kaul, K K

1986-08-01

Perinatal and infant mortality during the year 1985 was analyzed through a prospective study conducted in 12 Anganwadis (total population of 13,054) located in slum areas of India's Jabalpur city. Overall, the infant mortality rate was 128.7/1000 live births and the perinatal mortality rate was 88.5/1000 live births. 58.5% of deaths occurred in the neonatal period. Causes of neonatal deaths included prematurity, respiratory distress syndrome, birth asphyxia, septicemia, and neonatal tetanus. Postneonatal deaths were largely attributable to dehydration from diarrhea, bronchopneumonia, malnutrition, and infectious diseases. All mortality rates were significantly higher in Muslims than among Hindus. Muslims accounted for 28% of the study population, but contributed 63% of stillbirths and 55% of total infant deaths. This phenomenon appears attributable to the large family size among Muslims coupled with inadequate maternal-child health care. The national neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates are 88/1000 and 52/1000, respectively. The fact that the neonatal mortality rate in the study area was slightly lower than the national average may reflect the impact of ICDS services.

Government health care spending and child mortality.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Ng, Ka Ying Bonnie; Williams, Callum; Atun, Rifat; Zeltner, Thomas

2015-04-01

Government health care spending (GHS) is of increasing importance to child health. Our study determined the relationship between reductions in GHS and child mortality rates in high- and low-income countries. The authors used comparative country-level data for 176 countries covering the years 1981 to 2010, obtained from the World Bank and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the association between changes in GHS and child mortality, controlling for differences in infrastructure and demographics. Data were available for 176 countries, equating to a population of ∼ 5.8 billion as of 2010. A 1% decrease in GHS was associated with a significant increase in 4 child mortality measures: neonatal (regression coefficient [R] 0.0899, P = .0001, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0440-0.1358), postneonatal (R = 0.1354, P = .0001, 95% CI 0.0678-0.2030), 1- to 5-year (R = 0.3501, P < .0001, 95% CI 0.2318-0.4685), and under 5-year (R = 0.5207, P < .0001, 95% CI 0.3168-0.7247) mortality rates. The effect was evident up to 5 years after the reduction in GHS (P < .0001). Compared with high-income countries, low-income countries experienced greater deteriorations of ∼ 1.31 times neonatal mortality, 2.81 times postneonatal mortality, 8.08 times 1- to 5-year child mortality, and 2.85 times under 5-year mortality. Reductions in GHS are associated with significant increases in child mortality, with the largest increases occurring in low-income countries. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

[Factors associated to mortality by non-communicable diseases in Colombia, 2008-2012].

PubMed

Martínez, Julio Cesar

2016-12-01

Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of premature mortality and disability in the world. To describe the trend pattern and to explore which risk factors were associated with mortality rates in Colombia from 2008 to 2012. A descriptive study was conducted to analyze mortality rate trends from the official vital statistics (death certificates) from 2008 to 2012. Between 2008 and 2012 there were 727,146 deaths due to non-communicable diseases, and 58.5% of them occurred among men aged less than 75 years. The mortality rate during the study period was 319.5 deaths per 100,000 people. The trend showed a statistically significant decline in mortality rates (-3%) across the country. For each woman who died due to external causes (i.e., not related to illness or old age), five men died under the same circumstances (OR=5,295; IC 95%: 5,143-5,454). The five most important causes of mortality were heart diseases, injuries due to aggressions, malignant tumors, chronic lower respiratory diseases and road traffic accidents. The cause of death differed significantly by sex and age. The main causes of death in Colombia were heart diseases and injuries (homicide). Mortality was higher among men of all ages than among women, but 15 to 45 year-old males were more likely to die due to external causes.

Death rates for acquired hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis in English populations (1979-2010): comparison of underlying cause and all certified causes.

PubMed

Goldacre, M J; Duncan, M E

2013-03-01

Overt hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis have widespread systemic effects and are associated with increased mortality. Most death certificates that include them do not have the thyroid disease coded as the underlying cause of death. To describe regional (1979-2010) and national (1995-2010) trends in mortality rates for acquired hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis, analysing all certified causes of death (termed 'mentions') and not just the underlying cause. Analysis of death registration data. Analysis of data for the Oxford region (mentions available from 1979) and English national data (mentions available from 1995). The data were grouped in periods defined by different national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death (1979-83, 1984-92, 1993-2000 and 2001-10) and were also analysed as single calendar years. Mentions mortality for acquired hypothyroidism in the Oxford region declined significantly from 1979 to 2010: the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was -2.6% (95% confidence intervals -3.5, -1.8). Most of the decrease occurred during the 1980s. The AAPC in rates for later years in England (1995-2010) was non-significant at 0.2% (-0.7, 1.0). Mortality rates for thyrotoxicosis decreased significantly: the AAPC was -2.8% (-4.1, -1.5) in the Oxford region and -3.8% (-4.7, -3.0) in England. In England, between 2001 and 2010, hypothyroidism or thyrotoxicosis was coded as the underlying cause of death on, respectively, 17 and 24% of death certificates that included them. Mortality rates for hypothyroidism and thyrotoxicosis have fallen substantially. The fall is probably wholly or mainly a result of improved care.

Mortality rates for stroke in England from 1979 to 2004: trends, diagnostic precision, and artifacts.

PubMed

Goldacre, Michael J; Duncan, Marie; Griffith, Myfanwy; Rothwell, Peter M

2008-08-01

Stroke mortality appears to be declining more rapidly in the UK than in many other Western countries. To understand this apparent decline better, we studied trends in mortality in the UK using more detailed data than are routinely available. Analysis of datasets that include both the underlying cause and all other mentioned causes of death (together, termed "all mentions"): the Oxford Record Linkage Study from 1979 to 2004 and English national data from 1996 to 2004. Mortality rates based on underlying cause and based on all mentions showed similar downward trends. Mortality based on underlying cause alone misses about one quarter of all stroke-related deaths. Changes during the period in the national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death had a significant but fairly small effect on the trend. Overall, mortality fell by an average annual rate of 2.3% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 2.5%) for stroke excluding subarachnoid hemorrhage; and by 2.1% (1.7% to 2.6%) per annum for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Coding of stroke as hemorrhagic, occlusive, or unspecified varied substantially across the study period. As a result, rates for hemorrhagic and occlusive stroke, affected by artifact, seemed to fall substantially in the first part of the study period and then leveled off. Studies of stroke mortality should include all mentions as well as the certified underlying cause, otherwise the burden of stroke will be underestimated. Studies of stroke mortality that include strokes specified as hemorrhagic or occlusive, without also considering stroke overall, are likely to be misleading. Stroke mortality in the Oxford region halved between 1979 and 2004.

Mortality and recurrence rate after pressure ulcer operation for elderly long-term bedridden patients.

PubMed

Kuwahara, Masamitsu; Tada, Hideyuki; Mashiba, Kumi; Yurugi, Satoshi; Iioka, Hiroshi; Niitsuma, Katsunori; Yasuda, Yukiko

2005-06-01

We operated on 16 sacral pressure ulcers in elderly and long-term residential patients who were immobile as a result of cerebral vascular disease. The mean age of patients was 76 years. Eight ulcers were treated with local fascial flaps and 8 by simple closure. The follow-up period was from 1 to 4 years. Recurrence and mortality rates were examined retrospectively. In the 16 patients, recurrence occurred in 37.5%, and 43.8% died without recurrence. The recurrence rate was 37.5% for local fascial flaps and 37.5% for simple closure. Overall mortality was 68.8% in the follow-up period. Because postoperative death was common, we should not only focus on reducing local pressure but also pay attention to any underlying disease. Because of this high mortality rate, the least invasive procedure possible should be used. Because the recurrence rate of simple closure was the same as for local fascial flaps, simple closure should be considered as a reconstructive method.

Country level economic disparities in child injury mortality.

PubMed

Khan, Uzma Rahim; Sengoelge, Mathilde; Zia, Nukhba; Razzak, Junaid Abdul; Hasselberg, Marie; Laflamme, Lucie

2015-02-01

Injuries are a neglected cause of child mortality globally and the burden is unequally distributed in resource poor settings. The aim of this study is to explore the share and distribution of child injury mortality across country economic levels and the correlation between country economic level and injuries. All-cause and injury mortality rates per 100,000 were extracted for 187 countries for the 1-4 age group and under 5s from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Countries were grouped into four economic levels. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was used to determine correlation with injury mortality. For all regions and country economic levels, the share of injuries in all-cause mortality was greater when considering the 1-4 age group than under 5s, ranging from 36.6% in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to 10.6% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Except for Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a graded association between country economic level and 1-4 injury mortality across regions, with all low-income countries having the highest rates. Except for the two regions with the highest overall injury mortality rates, there is a significant negative correlation between GDP and injury mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe/Central Asia, Asia East/South-East and Pacific and North Africa/ Middle East. Child injury mortality is unevenly distributed across regions and country economic level to the detriment of poorer countries. A significant negative correlation exists between GDP and injury in all regions, exception for the most resource poor where the burden of injuries is highest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Reduction in child mortality in Ethiopia: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Doherty, Tanya; Rohde, Sarah; Besada, Donela; Kerber, Kate; Manda, Samuel; Loveday, Marian; Nsibande, Duduzile; Daviaud, Emmanuelle; Kinney, Mary; Zembe, Wanga; Leon, Natalie; Rudan, Igor; Degefie, Tedbabe; Sanders, David

2016-12-01

To examine changes in under-5 mortality, coverage of child survival interventions and nutritional status of children in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011. Using the Lives Saved Tool, the impact of changes in coverage of child survival interventions on under-5 lives saved was estimated. Estimates of child mortality were generated using three Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys undertaken between 2000 and 2011. Coverage indicators for high impact child health interventions were calculated and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate child lives saved in 2011. The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years decreased rapidly from 218 child deaths per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval 183 to 252) in the period 1987-1991 to 88 child deaths per 1000 live births in the period 2007-2011 (78 to 98). The prevalence of moderate or severe stunting in children aged 6-35 months also declined significantly. Improvements in the coverage of interventions relevant to child survival in rural areas of Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011 were found for tetanus toxoid, DPT3 and measles vaccination, oral rehydration solution (ORS) and care-seeking for suspected pneumonia. The LiST analysis estimates that there were 60 700 child deaths averted in 2011, primarily attributable to decreases in wasting rates (18%), stunting rates (13%) and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions (13%). Improvements in the nutritional status of children and increases in coverage of high impact interventions most notably WASH and ORS have contributed to the decline in under-5 mortality in Ethiopia. These proximal determinants however do not fully explain the mortality reduction which is plausibly also due to the synergistic effect of major child health and nutrition policies and delivery strategies.

Socioeconomic differences in child mortality in central Poland at the end of the nineteenth century.

PubMed

Drozd-Lipińska, Alicja; Klugier, Ewa; Kamińska-Czakłosz, Małgorzata

2015-07-01

Analyses of historical or modern populations indicate a strong relationship between mortality level and standard of living, measured, among other factors, by degree of urbanization. The aim of this study was to assess mortality rates in children of up to 5 years of age in two populations living under different conditions in central modern Poland at the end of the 19th century: the rural parish of Kowal, under Russian partition, and Toruń, an industrial and urbanized centre under Prussian partition. Data on births and deaths were taken from birth certificate registries and from the Prussian statistics yearbooks for 1876-1894. Death rates of children aged 0-5 years were calculated, and also for annual age ranges. The urban population had lower birth rates (37.19‰), natural increase rates (8.0‰), population dynamics rates (1.26‰), which provide information about the relation between two components of a natural increase, i.e. births and deaths, and an over-mortality of boys in relation to girls. In the rural population these values were all higher: 53.67‰, 18.11‰ and 1.59‰ respectively. No impact was found of social stratification on child mortality in the wide age group of 0-5 years. However, for subsequent one-year age groups significant relationships between mortality level and size and industrialization level of the population centres were noted. The living conditions of infants in Toruń, although being in a better position as an area annexed by Prussia, were markedly worse than those of rural Kowal Parish. In the urban centre infant mortality was slightly over 269 for 1000 live born, and in Kowal Parish it was 163 for 1000 live born. The high infant mortality was balanced in Toruń by the higher mortality levels of children aged 2-5 years compared with Kowal Parish. Natural selection in the city had the greatest impact on infants, who did not have the protective influence of breast-feeding because women had to return to work shortly after giving birth. The lower infant mortality of mothers in the countryside due to longer breast-feeding led to larger family sizes. In 1871-1890 in the villages the number of children per women was about 7.42, whereas in Toruń it ranged from 4.4 to 5.2. The probability of death among children who survived the first year of life was higher in the countryside than the town. In the rural parish, perhaps because of cultural factors such as breast-feeding or working practices making full-time baby-sitting possible, children who did not reach the age of 1 year were not subjected to such intensive natural selection. Overall, differences in child mortality in the two centres in 19th central Poland resulted from ecological and cultural conditions, rather than from social and economical reasons (living under different partitions).

Practical issues in the measurement of child survival in health systems trials: experience developing a digital community-based mortality surveillance programme in rural Nepal.

PubMed

Harsha Bangura, Alex; Ozonoff, Al; Citrin, David; Thapa, Poshan; Nirola, Isha; Maru, Sheela; Schwarz, Ryan; Raut, Anant; Belbase, Bishal; Halliday, Scott; Adhikari, Mukesh; Maru, Duncan

2016-01-01

Child mortality measurement is essential to the impact evaluation of maternal and child healthcare systems interventions. In the absence of vital statistics systems, however, assessment methodologies for locally relevant interventions are severely challenged. Methods for assessing the under-5 mortality rate for cross-country comparisons, often used in determining progress towards development targets, pose challenges to implementers and researchers trying to assess the population impact of targeted interventions at more local levels. Here, we discuss the programmatic approach we have taken to mortality measurement in the context of delivering healthcare via a public-private partnership in rural Nepal. Both government officials and the delivery organisation, Possible , felt it was important to understand child mortality at a fine-grain spatial and temporal level. We discuss both the short-term and the long-term approach. In the short term, the team chose to use the under-2 mortality rate as a metric for mortality measurement for the following reasons: (1) as overall childhood mortality declines, like it has in rural Nepal, deaths concentrate among children under the age of 2; (2) 2-year cohorts are shorter and thus may show an impact more readily in the short term of intervention trials; and (3) 2-year cohorts are smaller, making prospective census cohorts more feasible in small populations. In the long term, Possible developed a digital continuous surveillance system to capture deaths as they occur, at which point under-5 mortality assessment would be desirable, largely owing to its role as a global standard.

Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S.; Huang, Kan

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase inmore » the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.« less

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986-2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality.

REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY AS A MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENI GOAL IN ROMANIA.

PubMed

Duma, Olga-Odetta; Roşu, Solange Tamara; Petrariu, F D; Manole, M; Constantin, Brânduşa

2016-01-01

To assess the efforts made in Romania towards achieving the Goal 4 from MDGs--Reduce Child Mortality. A descriptive study about the deaths among Romanian children under five, between 2002 and 2015, from the perspective of the MDGs. To help track progress toward this commitment, following specific targets and indicators were developed: Target 1-Halve the mortality rate in children aged 1-4 years between 2002-2015; Target 2--Reduce infant mortality by 40% between 2002 and 2015; Target 3--Eliminate measles by 2007. The comparison allows establish the status (achieved or not) for each target. From 2002, the under-five mortality rate recorded a continuous descendent trend till now (20.8 to 10.3 under five deaths per 1000 inhabitants in 2013). The infant mortality rates declined from 17.3 to 8.5 deaths per 1,000 live births (2002-2013). Eliminating measles by 2007--was achieved one year later, because of the measles epidemic in 2005 and 2006. High vaccination rates have been maintained, with the proportion of children 1 year old vaccinated against measles reaching and being maintained at between 94-98%. Substantial progress has been made in Romania, in achieving the Millennium Development Goal no. 4. All the three targets were achieved. However, infant mortality still remains above the average of European Union (4 infant deaths per 1,000 live-births).

Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981-2010.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

2017-01-01

To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Global. 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0-21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1-5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries.

Patterns in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions: projections of neonatal and under-5 mortality to 2035.

PubMed

Walker, Neff; Yenokyan, Gayane; Friberg, Ingrid K; Bryce, Jennifer

2013-09-21

Urgent calls have been made for improved understanding of changes in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, and their country-level determinants. We examined historical trends in coverage of interventions with proven effectiveness, and used them to project rates of child and neonatal mortality in 2035 in 74 Countdown to 2015 priority countries. We investigated coverage of all interventions for which evidence was available to suggest effective reductions in maternal and child mortality, for which indicators have been defined, and data have been obtained through household surveys. We reanalysed coverage data from 312 nationally-representative household surveys done between 1990 and 2011 in 69 countries, including 58 Countdown countries. We developed logistic Loess regression models for patterns of coverage change for each intervention, and used k-means cluster analysis to divide interventions into three groups with different historical patterns of coverage change. Within each intervention group, we examined performance of each country in achieving coverage gains. We constructed models that included baseline coverage, region, gross domestic product, conflict, and governance to examine country-specific annual percentage coverage change for each group of indicators. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to predict mortality rates of children younger than 5 years (henceforth, under 5) and in the neonatal period in 2035 for Countdown countries if trends in coverage continue unchanged (historical trends scenario) and if each country accelerates intervention coverage to the highest level achieved by a Countdown country with similar baseline coverage level (best performer scenario). Odds of coverage of three interventions (antimalarial treatment, skilled attendant at birth, and use of improved sanitation facilities) have decreased since 1990, with a mean annual decrease of 5·5% (SD 2·7%). Odds of coverage of four interventions--all related to the prevention of malaria--have increased rapidly, with a mean annual increase of 27·9% (7·3%). Odds of coverage of other interventions have slowly increased, with a mean annual increase of 5·3% (3·5%). Rates of coverage change varied widely across countries; we could not explain the differences by measures of gross domestic product, conflict, or governance. On the basis of LiST projections, we predicted that the number of Countdown countries with an under-5 mortality rate of fewer than 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from four (5%) of the 74 in 2010, to nine (12%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and to 15 (20%) under the best performer scenario. The number of countries with neonatal mortality rates of fewer than 11 per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from three (4%) in 2010, to ten (14%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and 67 (91%) under the best performer scenario. The number of under-5 deaths per year would decrease from an estimated 7·6 million in 2010, to 5·4 million (28% decrease) if historical trends continue, and to 2·3 million (71% decrease) under the best performer scenario. Substantial reductions in child deaths are possible, but only if intensified efforts to achieve intervention coverage are implemented successfully within each of the Countdown countries. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

National and sub-national under-five mortality profiles in Peru: a basis for informed policy decisions.

PubMed

Huicho, Luis; Trelles, Miguel; Gonzales, Fernando

2006-07-04

Information on profiles for under-five causes of death is important to guide choice of child-survival interventions. Global level data have been published, but information at country level is scarce. We aimed at defining national and departmental trends and profiles of under-five mortality in Peru from 1996 through 2000. We used the Ministry of Health registered under-five mortality data. For correction of under-registration, a model life-table that fitted the age distribution of the population and of registered deaths was identified for each year. The mortality rates corresponding to these model life-tables were then assigned to each department in each particular year. Cumulative reduction in under-five mortality rate in the 1996-2000 period was estimated calculating the annual reduction slope for each department. Departmental level mortality profiles were constructed. Differences in mortality profiles and in mortality reduction between coastal, andean and jungle regions were also assessed. At country level, only 4 causes (pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal diseases and injuries) accounted for 68% of all deaths in 1996, and for 62% in 2000. There was 32.7% of under-five death reduction from 1996 to 2000. Diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths decreased by 84.5% and 41.8%, respectively, mainly in the andean region, whereas deaths due to neonatal causes and injuries decreased by 37.2% and 21.7%. For 1996-2000 period, the andean, coast and jungle regions accounted for 52.4%, 33.1% and 14.4% of deaths, respectively. These regions represent 41.0%, 46.4% and 12.6% of under-five population. Both diarrhoea and pneumonia constitute 30.6% of under-five deaths in the andean region. As a proportion, neonatal deaths remained stable in the country from 1996 to 2000, accounting for about 30% of under-five deaths, whereas injuries and "other" causes, including congenital anomalies, increased by about 5%. Under-five mortality declined substantially in all departments from 1996 to 2000, which is explained mostly by reduction in diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths, particularly in the andean region. There is the need to emphasize interventions to reduce neonatal deaths and emerging causes of death such as injuries and congenital anomalies.

Community-based measles mortality surveillance in two districts of Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

N'goran, Alexandra A; Ilunga, Ngoie; Coldiron, Matthew E; Grais, Rebecca F; Porten, Klaudia

2013-12-17

Mortality due to measles is often under-reported. Traditional methods of measuring mortality can be time and resource-intensive. We describe the implementation of a community-based method to monitor measles mortality. Using standardized questionnaires in the midst of a measles outbreak, a community-based network of volunteers recorded a much larger number of deaths (376) than deaths recorded in health centres (27). Deaths were predominantly (93.5%) among children aged less than 5 years; 54.5% of measles deaths reported antecedent measles vaccination. In this setting, the number of deaths due to measles reported in community-based surveillance was much higher than deaths reported in health centres. Lack of reliable population data and incomplete coverage of the surveillance system make it impossible to calculate overall attack rates and cause-specific mortality rates. Similar systems could be rapidly implemented in other difficult outbreak settings.

Using community-based reporting of vital events to monitor child mortality: Lessons from rural Ghana.

PubMed

Helleringer, Stephane; Arhinful, Daniel; Abuaku, Benjamin; Humes, Michael; Wilson, Emily; Marsh, Andrew; Clermont, Adrienne; Black, Robert E; Bryce, Jennifer; Amouzou, Agbessi

2018-01-01

Reducing neonatal and child mortality is a key component of the health-related sustainable development goal (SDG), but most low and middle income countries lack data to monitor child mortality on an annual basis. We tested a mortality monitoring system based on the continuous recording of pregnancies, births and deaths by trained community-based volunteers (CBV). This project was implemented in 96 clusters located in three districts of the Northern Region of Ghana. Community-based volunteers (CBVs) were selected from these clusters and were trained in recording all pregnancies, births, and deaths among children under 5 in their catchment areas. Data collection lasted from January 2012 through September 2013. All CBVs transmitted tallies of recorded births and deaths to the Ghana Birth and deaths registry each month, except in one of the study districts (approximately 80% reporting). Some events were reported only several months after they had occurred. We assessed the completeness and accuracy of CBV data by comparing them to retrospective full pregnancy histories (FPH) collected during a census of the same clusters conducted in October-December 2013. We conducted all analyses separately by district, as well as for the combined sample of all districts. During the 21-month implementation period, the CBVs reported a total of 2,819 births and 137 under-five deaths. Among the latter, there were 84 infant deaths (55 neonatal deaths and 29 post-neonatal deaths). Comparison of the CBV data with FPH data suggested that CBVs significantly under-estimated child mortality: the estimated under-5 mortality rate according to CBV data was only 2/3 of the rate estimated from FPH data (95% Confidence Interval for the ratio of the two rates = 51.7 to 81.4). The discrepancies between the CBV and FPH estimates of infant and neonatal mortality were more limited, but varied significantly across districts. In northern Ghana, a community-based data collection systems relying on volunteers did not yield accurate estimates of child mortality rates. Additional implementation research is needed to improve the timeliness, completeness and accuracy of such systems. Enhancing pregnancy monitoring, in particular, may be an essential step to improve the measurement of neonatal mortality.

Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

PubMed

Liu, Li; Oza, Shefali; Hogan, Dan; Chu, Yue; Perin, Jamie; Zhu, Jun; Lawn, Joy E; Cousens, Simon; Mathers, Colin; Black, Robert E

2016-12-17

Despite remarkable progress in the improvement of child survival between 1990 and 2015, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 target of a two-thirds reduction of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was not achieved globally. In this paper, we updated our annual estimates of child mortality by cause to 2000-15 to reflect on progress toward the MDG 4 and consider implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target for child survival. We increased the estimation input data for causes of deaths by 43% among neonates and 23% among 1-59-month-olds, respectively. We used adequate vital registration (VR) data where available, and modelled cause-specific mortality fractions applying multinomial logistic regressions using adequate VR for low U5MR countries and verbal autopsy data for high U5MR countries. We updated the estimation to use Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in place of malaria index in the modelling of malaria deaths; to use adjusted empirical estimates instead of modelled estimates for China; and to consider the effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and rotavirus vaccine in the estimation. In 2015, among the 5·9 million under-5 deaths, 2·7 million occurred in the neonatal period. The leading under-5 causes were preterm birth complications (1·055 million [95% uncertainty range (UR) 0·935-1·179]), pneumonia (0·921 million [0·812 -1·117]), and intrapartum-related events (0·691 million [0·598 -0·778]). In the two MDG regions with the most under-5 deaths, the leading cause was pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa and preterm birth complications in southern Asia. Reductions in mortality rates for pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles were responsible for 61% of the total reduction of 35 per 1000 livebirths in U5MR in 2000-15. Stratified by U5MR, pneumonia was the leading cause in countries with very high U5MR. Preterm birth complications and pneumonia were both important in high, medium high, and medium child mortality countries; whereas congenital abnormalities was the most important cause in countries with low and very low U5MR. In the SDG era, countries are advised to prioritise child survival policy and programmes based on their child cause-of-death composition. Continued and enhanced efforts to scale up proven life-saving interventions are needed to achieve the SDG child survival target. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effect of Governance Indicators on Under-Five Mortality in OECD Nations: Generalized Method of Moments.

PubMed

Emamgholipour, Sara; Asemane, Zahra

2016-01-01

Today, it is recognized that factors other than health services are involved in health improvement and decreased inequality so identifying them is the main concern of policy makers and health authorities. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of governance indicators on health outcomes. A panel data study was conducted to investigate the effect of governance indicators on child mortality rate in 27 OECD countries from 1996 to 2012 using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model and EVIEWS.8 software. According to the results obtained, under-five mortality rate was significantly related to all of the research variables (p < 0.05). One percent increase in under-five mortality in the previous period resulted in a 0.83% increase in the mortality rate in the next period, and a 1% increase in total fertility rate, increased the under-five mortality rate by 0.09%. In addition, a 1% increase in GDP per capita decreased the under-five mortality rate by 0.07%, and a 1% improvement in control of corruption and rule of law indicators decreased child mortality rate by 0.05 and 0.08%, respectively. Furthermore, 1% increase in public health expenditure per capita resulted in a 0.03% decrease in under-five mortality rate. The results of the study suggest that considering control variables, including GDP per capita, public health expenditure per capita, total fertility rate, and improvement of governance indicators (control of corruption and rule of law) would decrease the child mortality rate.

Child health and nutrition in Peru within an antipoverty political agenda: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

PubMed

Huicho, Luis; Segura, Eddy R; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; de Guzman, Jessica Niño; Restrepo-Méndez, Maria Clara; Tam, Yvonne; Barros, Aluisio J D; Victora, Cesar G

2016-06-01

Peru is an upper-middle-income country with wide social and regional disparities. In recent years, sustained multisectoral antipoverty programmes involving governments, political parties, and civil society have included explicit health and nutrition goals and spending increased sharply. We did a country case study with the aim of documenting Peru's progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health from 2000-13, and explored the potential determinants. We examined the outcomes of health interventions coverage, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and prevalence of under-5 stunting. We obtained data from interviews with key informants, a literature review of published and unpublished data, national censuses, and governmental reports. We obtained information on social determinants of health, including economic growth, poverty, unmet basic needs, urbanisation, women's education, water supply, fertility rates, and child nutrition from the annual national households surveys and the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys. We obtained national mortality data from the Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, and calculated subnational rates from 11 surveys. Analyses were stratified by region, wealth quintiles, and urban or rural residence. We calculated coverage indicators for the years 2000-13, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effect of changes in intervention coverage and in nutritional status on mortality. From 2000 to 2013, under-5 mortality fell by 58% from 39·8 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 16·7. LiST, which was used to predict the decline in mortality arising from changes in fertility rates, water and sanitation, undernutrition, and coverage of indicators of reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health predicted that the under-5 mortality rate would fall from 39·8 to 28·4 per 1000 livebirths, accounting for 49·2% of the reported reduction. Neonatal mortality fell by 51% from 16·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 8·0. Stunting prevalence remained stable at around 30% until 2007, decreasing to 17·5% by 2013, and the composite coverage index for essential health interventions increased from 75·1% to 82·6%, with faster increases among the poor, in rural areas, and in the Andean region. Socioeconomic, urban-rural, and regional inequalities in coverage, mortality, and stunting were substantially reduced. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 47·8% to 23·9%, women with fewer than 4 years of schooling reduced from 11·5% to 6·9%, urbanisation increased from 68·1% to 75·6%, and the total fertility rate decreased from 3·0 children per woman to 2·4. We interviewed 175 key informants and they raised the following issues: economic growth, improvement of social determinants, civil society empowerment and advocacy, out-of-health and within-health-sector changes, and sustained implementation of evidence-based, pro-poor reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health interventions. Peru has made substantial progress in reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality, and child stunting. This country is a good example of how a combination of political will, economic growth, broad societal participation, strategies focused on poor people, and increased spending in health and related sectors can achieve significant progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health. The remaining challenges include continuing to address inequalities in wealth distribution, poverty, and access to basic services, especially in the Amazon and Andean rural areas. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Huicho et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY 4.0. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Association between community management of pneumonia and diarrhoea in high-burden countries and the decline in under-five mortality rates: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Dilip, Thandassery Ramachandran; Costello, Anthony

2017-02-14

The objective of the paper is to explore if the adoption of national policies to use community-based health providers for the management of pneumonia and diarrhoea is associated with the decline in under-five mortality, including achievement of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)4 target, in high-burden countries. This country level analysis covers 75 high-burden low-income and middle-income countries which accounted for 98% of the 5.9 million global under-five deaths in 2015. One-fourth of these deaths were due to pneumonia and diarrhoea. χ 2 tests and multiple regression analysis were used to examine the association between reduction in under-five mortality rates and community case management of pneumonia and diarrhoea by adjusting for the influence of other possible determinants. No patient or population interviewed/examined for this analysis. Countries were the unit of analysis. Community case management (CCM) of pneumonia and diarrhoea policies. Changes in under-five mortality rates over time. Countries that had adopted both CCM policies were three times more likely to achieve the MDG4 target than countries that did not have both policies in place. This association was further confirmed by the multivariate analysis (β-coefficient=10.4; 95% CI 2.4 to 18.5; p value=0.012). There is a statistically significant association between adoption of CCM policies for treatment of pneumonia and diarrhoea and the rate of decline in child mortality levels. It is important to promote CCM in countries lagging behind to achieve the new target of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Diarrhoeal problems in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Sunoto

1982-09-01

Diarrhoea up till now is still a major problem in Southeast Asia with high morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under 5 years of age, with the peak in children between 6 - 24 months. In Indonesia, in 1981, it was estimated that there are 60 million episodes with 300,000 - 500,000 deaths. In the Philippines, diarrhoea ranks as a second cause of morbidity (600 per 100,000 in 1974) and second cause of infant mortality (5 per 1,000 in 1974). In Thailand, in 1980, the morbidity rate was 524 per 100,000 and the mortality rate 14 per 100,000. In Malaysia, in 1976, diarrhoea was still ranking number 5 (3.1%) as a cause of total admission and number 9 (2.2%) as a cause of total deaths. In Singapore, diarrhoea still ranks number 3 as a cause of deaths (4% of total deaths). In Bangladesh, the overall attack rates imply a prevalence of 2.0% for the entire population, with the highest for under 5 groups i.e. 4.1%. The diarrhoea episode in rural population is 85.4%, 39% of them are children under 5. The most common enteropathogens found in all countries are rotavirus followed by Enterotoxigenic E. coli, Vibrio spp., Salmonella spp., Shigella spp. and Campylobacter. Malnutrition and decline of giving breast-feeding play an important role in causing high morbidity, besides socio-economic, socio-cultural and poor environmental sanitation.

[Neonatal care and mortality in public hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1994/2000].

PubMed

Gomes, Maria Auxiliadora de Souza Mendes; Lopes, José Maria Andrade; Moreira, Maria Elizabeth Lopes; Gianini, Nicole Oliveira Mota

2005-01-01

This article analyzes an intervention by the Rio de Janeiro Municipal Health Department (SMS-RJ), Brazil, to reduce the neonatal mortality rate (strategies for organizing and upgrading neonatal care in the municipal system, including an increase in the number of neonatal high-risk beds). We studied the trends in neonatal mortality rate (1995/2000), neonatal care provided in different public hospitals (1994/2000), and admissions profile and mortality in four neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) under the SMS-RJ (2000). There was a concentration of high-risk neonatal care in the municipal hospitals (an increase from 28.0% of the care provided for live premature neonates in 1994 to 67.0% in 2000) and a reduction in the neonatal mortality rate in units under the Unified National Health System (from 19.9 deaths per thousand live births in 1996 to 15.5 in 2000). There was no reduction in the prematurity and low birth weight rates among mothers residing in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Analysis of admissions to the NICUs showed a high proportion of neonates born to mothers from municipalities outside Rio de Janeiro, while 14.0% of the mothers had not received prenatal care, and the mortality rate among newborns with birth weight < 1.500g was 32.0%.

[Mortality of children with sickle cell disease in a pediatric department in Central Africa].

PubMed

Koko, J; Dufillot, D; M'Ba-Meyo, J; Gahouma, D; Kani, F

1998-09-01

Sickle cell disease is a serious public health problem in Gabon with a relatively high mortality rate. Charts of 23 children (nine boys, 14 girls) who died of complications from sickle cell anemia in the department of pediatrics of Owendo Pediatric Hospital (Libreville, Gabon), from January 1, 1990 through December 31, 1992, were analysed retrospectively. Approximately two-thirds of the children (60.9%) were under 5 years of age. The great majority of patients were from low socio-economic standard families. Of 319 deaths observed during the study period, 23 were due to sickle cell disease-associated complications, for an overall mortality rate of 7.2% and a related mortality of 3.6%. Commonest causes of deaths were severe anemia (11 cases, i.e., 47.8%), which affected predominantly the younger patients between 6 months and 5 years (eight cases), infections (30.4%) and blood transfusion complications (21.7%). To decrease these mortality rates, appropriate health supervision and well-designed preventive strategies are needed.

Factors associated with declining under-five mortality rates from 2000 to 2013: an ecological analysis of 46 African countries.

PubMed

Kipp, Aaron M; Blevins, Meridith; Haley, Connie A; Mwinga, Kasonde; Habimana, Phanuel; Shepherd, Bryan E; Aliyu, Muktar H; Ketsela, Tigest; Vermund, Sten H

2016-01-08

Inadequate overall progress has been made towards the 4th Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Progress has been variable across African countries. We examined health, economic and social factors potentially associated with reductions in under-five mortality (U5M) from 2000 to 2013. Ecological analysis using publicly available data from the 46 nations within the WHO African Region. We assessed the annual rate of change (ARC) of 70 different factors and their association with the annual rate of reduction (ARR) of U5M rates using robust linear regression models. Most factors improved over the study period for most countries, with the largest increases seen for economic or technological development and external financing factors. The median (IQR) U5M ARR was 3.6% (2.8 to 5.1%). Only 4 of 70 factors demonstrated a strong and significant association with U5M ARRs, adjusting for potential confounders. Higher ARRs were associated with more rapidly increasing coverage of seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection (β=0.22 (ie, a 1% increase in the ARC was associated with a 0.22% increase in ARR); 90% CI 0.09 to 0.35; p=0.01), increasing health expenditure relative to gross domestic product (β=0.26; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41; p=0.02), increasing fertility rate (β=0.54; 95% CI 0.07 to 1.02; p=0.07) and decreasing maternal mortality ratio (β=-0.47; 95% CI -0.69 to -0.24; p<0.01). The majority of factors showed no association or raised validity concerns due to missing data from a large number of countries. Improvements in sociodemographic, maternal health and governance and financing factors were more likely associated with U5M ARR. These underscore the essential role of contextual factors facilitating child health interventions and services. Surveillance of these factors could help monitor which countries need additional support in reducing U5M. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Causes and rates of mortality of swift foxes in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, M.A.; Roy, C.C.; Bright, J.B.; Gillis, J.R.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of mortality factors is important for developing strategies to conserve the swift fox (Vulpes velox), a species being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act, but available information about swift fox mortality is inadequate. We used radiotelemetry techniques to examine the magnitude and causes of mortality of swift fox populations in 2 study areas in western Kansas. One study area was predominantly cropland, the other rangeland. Mortality rates, calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimation techniques in a staggered entry design, were 0.55 ?? 0.08 (5 ?? SE) for adult and 0.67 ?? 0.08 for juvenile swift foxes. We did not detect differences between study areas in mortality rates for adults or juveniles. Predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) was the major cause of mortality for adult and juvenile swift foxes in both study areas, and vehicle collision was an important mortality factor for juveniles in the cropland study area. No mortality was attributed to starvation or disease.

Estimation of future PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique.

PubMed

Sun, Jian; Fu, Joshua S; Huang, Kan; Gao, Yang

2015-05-01

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12×12 km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry model under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentration in continental U.S. decreases nationwide, especially in the Eastern U.S. and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern U.S. but increase in the Western U.S. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) using the projected baseline incidence rate and population in 2050. For PM2.5, the entire continental U.S. presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the confidence interval of all causes mortality is much larger than that for specific causes, probably due to the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets and sample size. The confidence interval of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of the concentration-mortality response factor. The health impact of PM2.5 is more linearly proportional to the emission reductions than ozone. The reduction of anthropogenic PM2.5 precursor emissions is likely to lead to the decrease of PM2.5 concentrations and PM2.5 related mortality. However, the future ozone concentrations could increase due to increase of the greenhouse gas emissions of methane. Thus, to reduce the impact of ozone related mortality, anthropogenic emissions including criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (i.e. methane) need to be controlled.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview.

PubMed

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Kalter, Henry D; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E

2017-01-01

Nigeria's under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1-59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1-59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1-59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview

PubMed Central

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K.; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Nigeria’s under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1–59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1–59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1–59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country. PMID:28562611

[Fertility in adolescence].

PubMed

Mardones Restat, F; Jones Orellana, G

1985-03-01

Mortality rates among infants of mothers under 18 years old and their association with relevant variables were analyzed for the light they could shed on control of infant mortality and morbidity in Chile. Increased attention has been paid in recent years to maternal age, birth weight, and other risk factors in birth and death registration. Adolescent mothers who do not satisfy their own increased nutritional requirements are at greater risk of fetal malnutrition, often associated with low birth weight, high rates of infant mortality, and cerebral damages. 6% of all births in Chile in 1982 were to mothers aged 14-17. But the proportion of births to mothers under 20 has increased in Chile from 9% in 1965 to 17% in 1982. The age specific fertility rate declined for women 15-19 in the same years from 79 to 63/1000, while it declined by 1/2 for women aged 20-34. Infant mortality rates for children of adolescent mothers declined from 68.1/1000 in 1978 to 30/1000 in 1982, but marked rural-urban and regional differentials were noted. The infant mortality rate in 1978 we 43.8/1000 for children of married adolescent mothers and 96.5/1000 for children of unmarried adolescent mothers. Even higher rates were found in rural areas. By 1981, the rates and the magnitude of the differences had decreased, but rates continued to be higher for children of adolescent mothers. Malnutrition continues to be more prevalent among children of adolescent mothers, especially outside of the Santiago metropolitan region. Infant mortality increased with birth order among children of mothers under 18. Children weighing under 2 k can now be sent to centers for treatment of malnutrition when the household is judged to be incompetent for any reason. Such infants gain weight rapidly when they are well fed in a healthy environment. The mothers are instructed in child care at the center.

National and sub-national under-five mortality profiles in Peru: a basis for informed policy decisions

PubMed Central

Huicho, Luis; Trelles, Miguel; Gonzales, Fernando

2006-01-01

Background Information on profiles for under-five causes of death is important to guide choice of child-survival interventions. Global level data have been published, but information at country level is scarce. We aimed at defining national and departmental trends and profiles of under-five mortality in Peru from 1996 through 2000. Methods We used the Ministry of Health registered under-five mortality data. For correction of under-registration, a model life-table that fitted the age distribution of the population and of registered deaths was identified for each year. The mortality rates corresponding to these model life-tables were then assigned to each department in each particular year. Cumulative reduction in under-five mortality rate in the 1996–2000 period was estimated calculating the annual reduction slope for each department. Departmental level mortality profiles were constructed. Differences in mortality profiles and in mortality reduction between coastal, andean and jungle regions were also assessed. Results At country level, only 4 causes (pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal diseases and injuries) accounted for 68% of all deaths in 1996, and for 62% in 2000. There was 32.7% of under-five death reduction from 1996 to 2000. Diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths decreased by 84.5% and 41.8%, respectively, mainly in the andean region, whereas deaths due to neonatal causes and injuries decreased by 37.2% and 21.7%. For 1996–2000 period, the andean, coast and jungle regions accounted for 52.4%, 33.1% and 14.4% of deaths, respectively. These regions represent 41.0%, 46.4% and 12.6% of under-five population. Both diarrhoea and pneumonia constitute 30.6% of under-five deaths in the andean region. As a proportion, neonatal deaths remained stable in the country from 1996 to 2000, accounting for about 30% of under-five deaths, whereas injuries and "other" causes, including congenital anomalies, increased by about 5%. Conclusion Under-five mortality declined substantially in all departments from 1996 to 2000, which is explained mostly by reduction in diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths, particularly in the andean region. There is the need to emphasize interventions to reduce neonatal deaths and emerging causes of death such as injuries and congenital anomalies. PMID:16820049

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986–2011

PubMed Central

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Background Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. Objective The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986–2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Design Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. Results The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Conclusion Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality. PMID:26950560

Suicide in children over two decades: 1993-2008.

PubMed

Malone, K M; Quinlivani, L; McGuinness, S; McNicholas, F; Kelleher, C

2012-01-01

Suicide rates have increased in Ireland's youth over the past two decades. However, no research report has focussed on suicide rates in those aged under 18--the children of Ireland. We retrieved national disaggregated age and sex-specific suicide mortality data from 1993-1998 and compared it with similar suicide mortality data from 2003-2008. Significant age (older vs younger) and sex effects (boys greater risk than girls) are apparent in both decades Suicide rates in both males and females have increased (males: 9.3-13.5/100,000), (females: 2.4-5.1/100,000. Suicide rates in under 15 year olds boys and girls is extremely rare for both time periods studied (1.6/100,000). Results are discussed in light of the rights of children and the obligation of the nation in this regard, as well as more child-specific and transition to adulthood-specific suicide prevention policy implications.

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Methods Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. Results The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for < 24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. Conclusion This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015. PMID:24649944

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey.

PubMed

Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Mandungu, Tumwaka P; Mbela, Kisumbula; Nzita, Kikhela P D; Kalambayi, Banza B; Kayembe, Kalambayi P; Emina, Jacques B O

2014-03-20

The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for <24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015.

Effects of economic downturns on child mortality: a global economic analysis, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watson, Robert A; Watkins, Johnathan; Zeltner, Thomas; Raine, Rosalind; Atun, Rifat

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse how economic downturns affect child mortality both globally and among subgroups of countries of variable income levels. Design Retrospective observational study using economic data from the World Bank's Development Indicators and Global Development Finance (2013 edition). Child mortality data were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Setting Global. Participants 204 countries between 1981 and 2010. Main outcome measures Child mortality, controlling for country-specific differences in political, healthcare, cultural, structural, educational and economic factors. Results 197 countries experienced at least 1 economic downturn between 1981 and 2010, with a mean of 7.97 downturns per country (range 0–21; SD 0.45). At the global level, downturns were associated with significant (p<0.0001) deteriorations in each child mortality measure, in comparison with non-downturn years: neonatal (coefficient: 1.11, 95% CI 0.855 to 1.37), postneonatal (2.00, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.38), child (2.93, 95% CI 2.26 to 3.60) and under 5 years of age (5.44, 95% CI 4.31 to 6.58) mortality rates. Stronger (larger falls in the growth rate of gross domestic product/capita) and longer (lasting 2 years rather than 1) downturns were associated with larger significant deteriorations (p<0.001). During economic downturns, countries in the poorest quartile experienced ∼1½ times greater deterioration in neonatal mortality, compared with their own baseline; a 3-fold deterioration in postneonatal mortality; a 9-fold deterioration in child mortality and a 3-fold deterioration in under-5 mortality, than countries in the wealthiest quartile (p<0.0005). For 1–5 years after downturns ended, each mortality measure continued to display significant deteriorations (p<0.0001). Conclusions Economic downturns occur frequently and are associated with significant deteriorations in child mortality, with worse declines in lower income countries. PMID:28589010

Mortality rates and the causes of death related to diabetes mellitus in Shanghai Songjiang District: an 11-year retrospective analysis of death certificates.

PubMed

Zhu, Meiying; Li, Jiang; Li, Zhiyuan; Luo, Wei; Dai, Dajun; Weaver, Scott R; Stauber, Christine; Luo, Ruiyan; Fu, Hua

2015-09-04

China is one of the countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world. We analysed all the death certificates mentioning diabetes from 2002 to 2012 in Songjiang District of Shanghai to estimate morality rates and examine cause of death patterns. Mortality data of 2654 diabetics were collected from the database of local CDC. The data set comprises all causes of death, contributing causes and the underlying cause, thereby the mortality rates of diabetes and its specified complications were analysed. The leading underlying causes of death were various cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which collectively accounted for about 30% of the collected death certificates. Diabetes was determined as the underlying cause of death on 28.7%. The trends in mortality showed that the diabetes related death rate increased about 1.78 fold in the total population during the 11-year period, and the death rate of diabetes and CVD comorbidity increased 2.66 fold. In all the diabetes related deaths, the proportion of people dying of ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease increased from 18.0% in 2002 to 30.5% in 2012. But the proportions attributed directly to diabetes showed a downtrend, from 46.7-22.0%. The increasing diabetes related mortality could be chiefly due to the expanding prevalence of CVD, but has nothing to do with diabetes as the underlying cause. Policy makers should pay more attention to primary prevention of diabetes and on the prevention of cardiovascular complications to reduce the burden of diabetes on survival.

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

2010-01-01

Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

The US President's Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis.

PubMed

Jakubowski, Aleksandra; Stearns, Sally C; Kruk, Margaret E; Angeles, Gustavo; Thirumurthy, Harsha

2017-06-01

Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86-15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79-12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI -0.07-7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal. PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality.

The US President’s Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis

PubMed Central

Angeles, Gustavo; Thirumurthy, Harsha

2017-01-01

Background Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods and findings We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74–0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86–15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79–12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI −0.07–7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal. Conclusions PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality. PMID:28609442

Partitioning loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats into mortality and emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etherington, L.L.; Eggleston, D.B.; Stockhausen, W.T.

2003-01-01

Determining how post-settlement processes modify patterns of settlement is vital in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of recruitment variability of species with open populations. Generally, either single components of post-settlement loss (mortality or emigration) are examined at a time, or else the total loss is examined without discrimination of mortality and emigration components. The role of mortality in the loss of early juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, has been addressed in a few studies; however, the relative contribution of emigration has received little attention. We conducted mark-recapture experiments to examine the relative contribution of mortality and emigration to total loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats. Loss was partitioned into emigration and mortality components using a modified version of Jackson's (1939) square-within-a-square method. The field experiments assessed the effects of two size classes of early instars (J1-J2, J3-J5), two densities of juveniles (low: 16 m-2, high: 64 m-2), and time of day (day, night) on loss rates. In general, total loss rates of experimental juveniles and colonization rates by unmarked juveniles were extremely high (range = 10-57 crabs m-2/6 h and 17-51 crabs m-2/6 h, for loss and colonization, respectively). Total loss rates were higher at night than during the day, suggesting that juveniles (or potentially their predators) exhibit increased nocturnal activity. While colonization rates did not differ by time of day, J3-J5 juveniles demonstrated higher rates of colonization than J1-J2 crabs. Overall, there was high variability in both mortality and emigration, particularly for emigration. Average probabilities of mortality across all treatment combinations ranged from 0.25-0.67/6 h, while probabilities of emigration ranged from 0.29-0.72/6 h. Although mean mortality rates were greater than emigration rates in most treatments, the proportion of experimental trials in which crab loss from seagrass due to mortality was greater than losses due to emigration was not significantly different from 50%. Thus, mortality and emigration appear to contribute equally to juvenile loss in seagrass habitats. The difference in magnitude (absolute amount of loss) between mean emigration and mean mortality varied between size classes, such that differences between emigration and mortality were relatively small for J1-J2 crabs, but much larger for J3-J5 crabs. Further, mortality rates were density-dependent for J3-J5 juvenile stages but not for J1-J2 crabs, whereas emigration was inversely density-dependent among J3-J5 stages but not for J1-J2 instars. The co-dependency of mortality and emigration suggests that the loss term (emigration or mortality) which has the relatively stronger contribution to total loss may dictate the patterns of loss under different conditions. For older juveniles (J3-J5), emigration may only have a large impact on juvenile loss where densities are low, since the contribution of mortality appears to be much greater than emigration at high densities. The size-specific pattern of density-dependent mortality supports the notion of an ontogenetic habitat shift by early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass to unvegetated habitats, since larger individuals may experience increased mortality at high densities within seagrass beds. Qualitative comparisons between this study and a concurrent study of planktonic emigration of J1-J5 blue crabs (Blackmon and Eggleston, 2001) suggests that benthic emigration among J1-J2 blue crabs was greater than planktonic emigration; for J3-J5 stages benthic and planktonic emigration were nearly equal. This study demonstrates the potentially large role of emigration in recruitment processes and patterns of early juvenile blue crabs, and illustrates how juvenile size, juvenile density, and time of day can affect mortality and emigration rates as well as total loss and colonization. The components of po

Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

1999-03-01

Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

Early onset epilepsy is associated with increased mortality: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Moseley, Brian D.; Wirrell, Elaine C.; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C.; Nickels, Katherine

2013-01-01

SUMMARY We examined mortality in early onset (age <12 months) epilepsy in a population-based group of children. Children with early onset epilepsy were significantly more likely to die (case fatality, CF 8/60 versus 8/407, p<0.001; mortality rate, MR 14.5/1000 versus 2/1000 person years; standardized mortality ratio, SMR 22.25 versus 5.67). Mortality was greater in children with malignant neonatal (age <1 month) epilepsy (CF 4/12 versus 12/450, p<0.001; MR 54/1000 person years versus 2.7/1000 person year; SMR 46.55 versus 7.22). Given that only 1/8 early onset epilepsy deaths was seizure-related, mortality appears to be more affected by underlying etiology. PMID:23582606

Measuring Iran's success in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4: a systematic analysis of under-5 mortality at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2015.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Larijani, Bagher; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Kasaeian, Amir; Yazdani, Kamran; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Kazemi, Elaheh; Aghamohamadi, Saeide; Rezaei, Nazila; Chegini, Maryam; Haghshenas, Rosa; Jamshidi, Hamidreza; Delavari, Farnaz; Asadi-Lari, Mohsen; Farzadfar, Farshad

2017-05-01

Child mortality as one of the key Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4-to reduce child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015), is included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, target 2-to reduce child mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths for all countries by 2030), and is a key indicator of the health system in every country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the level and trend of child mortality from 1990 to 2015 in Iran, to assess the progress of the country and its provinces toward these goals. We used three different data sources: three censuses, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and 5-year data from the death registration system. We used the summary birth history data from four data sources (the three censuses and DHS) and used maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods to estimate the trends in child mortality rates, combining the estimates of these two indirect methods using Loess regression. We also used the complete birth history method to estimate child mortality rate directly from DHS data. Finally, to synthesise different trends into a single trend and calculate uncertainty intervals (UI), we used Gaussian process regression. Under-5 mortality rates (deaths per 1000 livebirths) at the national level in Iran in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 were 63·6 (95% UI 63·1-64·0), 38·8 (38·5-39·2), 24·9 (24·3-25·4), and 19·4 (18·6-20·2), respectively. Between 1990 and 2015, the median annual reduction and total overall reduction in these rates were 4·9% and 70%, respectively. At the provincial level, the difference between the highest and lowest child mortality rates in 1990, 2000, and 2015 were 65·6, 40·4, and 38·1 per 1000 livebirths, respectively. Based on the MDG 4 goal, five provinces had not decreased child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Furthermore, six provinces had not reached SDG 3 (target 2). Iran and most of its provinces achieved MDG 4 and SDG 3 (target 2) goals by 2015. However, at the subnational level in some provinces, there is substantial inequity. Local policy makers should use effective strategies to accelerate the reduction of child mortality for these provinces by 2030. Possible recommendations for such strategies include enhancing the level of education and health literacy among women, tackling sex discrimination, and improving incomes for families. Iran Ministry of Health and Education. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using birth defects registry data to evaluate infant and childhood mortality associated with birth defects: an alternative to traditional mortality assessment using underlying cause of death statistics.

PubMed

Copeland, Glenn E; Kirby, Russell S

2007-11-01

Although birth defects are a leading cause of death in infancy and early childhood, the proportion of all deaths to children with clinically diagnosed birth defects is not well documented. The study is intended to measure the proportion of all deaths to infants and children under age 10 occurring to children with birth defects and how and why this proportion differs from the proportion of deaths due to an underlying cause of congenital anomalies using standard mortality statistics. A linked file of Michigan livebirths and deaths was combined with data from a comprehensive multisource birth defects registry of Michigan livebirths born during the years 1992 through 2000. The data were analyzed to determine the mortality rate for infants and children with birth defects and for children with no reported birth defect. Mortality risk ratios were calculated. The underlying causes of death for children with birth defects were also categorized and compared to cause- specific mortality rates for the general population. Congenital anomalies were the underlying cause of death for 17.8% of all infant deaths while infants with birth defects were 33.7% of all infant deaths in the study. Almost half of all Michigan deaths to children aged 1 to 2 were within the birth defects registry, though only 15.0% had an underlying cause of death of a congenital anomaly based upon standard mortality statistics. The mortality experience among children with birth defects was significantly higher than other children throughout the first 9 years of life, ranging from 4.6 for 5 year olds to 12.8 for children 1 to 2. Mortality risk ratios examined by cause of death for infants with birth defects were highest for other endocrine (28.1), other CNS (28.1), and heart (21.9) conditions. For children 1 through 9, the highest differential risk was seen for other perinatal conditions (39.0), other endocrine (29.7), other CNS (24.5), and heart (21.4). Childhood mortality analyses that incorporate birth defects registry data provide a more comprehensive picture of the full burden of birth defects on mortality in infant and children and can provide an effective mechanism for monitoring the survival and mortality risks of children with selected birth defects on a population basis.

National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment.

PubMed

Alkema, Leontine; Chao, Fengqing; You, Danzhen; Pedersen, Jon; Sawyer, Cheryl C

2014-09-01

Under natural circumstances, the sex ratio of male to female mortality up to the age of 5 years is greater than one but sex discrimination can change sex ratios. The estimation of mortality by sex and identification of countries with outlying levels is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality, and because sex ratios might vary naturally based on differences in mortality levels and associated cause of death distributions. For this systematic analysis, we estimated country-specific mortality sex ratios for infants, children aged 1-4 years, and children under the age of 5 years (under 5s) for all countries from 1990 (or the earliest year of data collection) to 2012 using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, accounting for various data quality issues and assessing the uncertainty in sex ratios. We simultaneously estimated the global relation between sex ratios and mortality levels and constructed estimates of expected and excess female mortality rates to identify countries with outlying sex ratios. Global sex ratios in 2012 were 1·13 (90% uncertainty interval 1·12-1·15) for infants, 0·95 (0·93-0·97) for children aged 1-5 years, and 1·08 (1·07-1·09) for under 5s, an increase since 1990 of 0·01 (-0·01 to 0·02) for infants, 0·04 (0·02 to 0·06) for children aged 1-4 years, and 0·02 (0·01 to 0·04) for under 5s. Levels and trends varied across regions and countries. Sex ratios were lowest in southern Asia for 1990 and 2012 for all age groups. Highest sex ratios were seen in developed regions and the Caucasus and central Asia region. Decreasing mortality was associated with increasing sex ratios, except at very low infant mortality, where sex ratios decreased with total mortality. For 2012, we identified 15 countries with outlying under-5 sex ratios, of which ten countries had female mortality higher than expected (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Jordan, Nepal, and Pakistan). Although excess female mortality has decreased since 1990 for the vast majority of countries with outlying sex ratios, the ratios of estimated to expected female mortality did not change substantially for most countries, and worsened for India. Important differences exist between boys and girls with respect to survival up to the age of 5 years. Survival chances tend to improve more rapidly for girls compared with boys as total mortality decreases, with a reversal of this trend at very low infant mortality. For many countries, sex ratios follow this pattern but important exceptions exist. An explanation needs to be sought for selected countries with outlying sex ratios and action should be undertaken if sex discrimination is present. The National University of Singapore and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). Copyright © 2014 Alkema et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Mortality Rate and Predictors in Children Under 15 Years Old Who Acquired HIV from Mother to Child Transmission in Paraguay.

PubMed

Aguilar, Gloria; Miranda, Angélica Espinosa; Rutherford, George W; Munoz, Sergio; Hills, Nancy; Samudio, Tania; Galeano, Fernando; Kawabata, Anibal; González, Carlos Miguel Rios

2018-02-17

We estimated mortality rate and predictors of death in children and adolescents who acquired HIV through mother-to-child transmission in Paraguay. In 2000-2014, we conducted a cohort study among children and adolescents aged < 15 years. We abstracted data from medical records and death certificates. We used the Cox proportional hazards model for the multivariable analysis of mortality predictors. A total of 302 subjects were included in the survey; 216 (71.5%) were younger than 5 years, 148 (51.0%) were male, and 214 (70.9%) resided in the Asunción metropolitan area. There were 52 (17.2%) deaths, resulting in an overall mortality rate of 2.06 deaths per 100 person-years. The children and adolescents with hemoglobin levels ≤ 9 g/dL at baseline had a 2-times higher hazard of death compared with those who had levels > 9 g/dL (HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.01-5.10). The mortality of HIV-infected children and adolescents in Paraguay is high, and anemia is associated with mortality. Improving prenatal screening to find cases earlier and improving pediatric follow-up are needed.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

Mortality and malnutrition among populations living in South Darfur, Sudan: results of 3 surveys, September 2004.

PubMed

Grandesso, Francesco; Sanderson, Frances; Kruijt, Jenneke; Koene, Ton; Brown, Vincent

2005-03-23

Mass violence against civilians in the west of Sudan has resulted in the displacement of more than 1.5 million people (25% of the population of the Darfur region). Most of these people are camped in 142 settlements. There has been increasing international concern about the health status of the displaced population. To perform rapid epidemiological assessments of mortality and nutritional status at 3 sites in South Darfur for relief efforts. In August and September 2004, mortality surveys were conducted among 137,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 3 sites in South Darfur (Kass [n = 900 households], Kalma [n = 893 households], and Muhajiria [n = 900 households]). A nutritional survey was performed concomitantly among children aged 6 to 59 months using weight for height as an index of acute malnutrition (Kass [n = 894], Kalma [n = 888], and Muhajiria [n = 896]). A questionnaire detailing access to food and basic services was administered to a subset of households (n = 210 in each site). Crude and under 5-year mortality rates and nutritional status of IDPs in Kass, Kalma, and Muhajiria, South Darfur. Crude mortality rates, expressed as deaths per 10,000 per day, were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-4.1) in Kass, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.3-2.7) in Kalma, and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.2-3.4) in Muhajiria. Under 5-year mortality rates were 5.9 (95% CI, 3.8-8.0) in Kass, 3.5 (95% CI, 1.5-5.7) in Kalma, and 1.0 (95% CI, 0.03-1.9) in Muhajiria. During the period of displacement covered by our survey in Muhajiria, violence was reported to be responsible for 72% of deaths, mainly among young men. Diarrheal disease was reported to cause between 25% and 47% of deaths in camp residents and mainly affected the youngest and oldest age groups. Acute malnutrition was common, affecting 14.1% of the target population in Kass, 23.6% in Kalma, and 10.7% in Muhajiria. This study provides epidemiological evidence of the high rates of mortality and malnutrition among the displaced population in South Darfur and reinforces the need to mount appropriate and timely humanitarian responses.

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

PubMed

Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

2017-09-01

Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in working-age adults in metropolitan areas. Additional research investigating the mechanisms underlying the health consequences of macroeconomic conditions is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the association between millennium development goals 4 & 5 and the physician workforce across international economic strata.

PubMed

Morley, Christopher P; Wang, Dongliang; Mader, Emily M; Plante, Kyle P; Kingston, Lindsey N; Rabiei, Azadeh

2017-07-18

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are 8 international development goals voluntarily adopted by 189 nations. The goals included health related aims to reduce the under-five child mortality rate by two-thirds (MDG4), and to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters (MDG5). To assess the relationship between the healthcare workforce and MDGs 4-5, we examined the physician workforces of countries around the globe, in terms of the Physician Density Level (PDL, or number of physicians per 1000 population), and compared this rate across a number of years to several indicator variables specified as markers of progress towards MDG4 and MDG5. Data for each variable of interest were obtained from the World Bank's Millennium Development Goals and World Development Indicators databases for 208 countries and territories from 2004 to 2014, representing a ten-year period for which the most information is available. We analyzed the relationships between MDG outcomes and PDL, controlling for national income levels and other covariates, using linear mixed model regression. Dependent variables were logarithmically transformed to meet assumptions necessary for multivariate analysis. In unadjusted models, an increase of every one physician per 1000 population (one unit change in PDL) lowered the risk of not being vaccinated for measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) to 29.3% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 22.2%-38.7%) and for not receiving diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTaP) vaccination rate decreased to 38.5% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 28.7% - 51.7%). Maternal mortality rate decreased to 76.6% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 74.3% - 79.0%), neonatal mortality decreased to 58.8% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 54.8% - 63.2%) and under-5 mortality rate decreased to 52.1% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 48.0% - 56.4%), with every one-unit change in PDL. Adjusted models tended to reflect unadjusted risk assessments. The maintenance and improvement of the health workforce is a vital consideration when assessing how to achieve global development goals related to health outcomes.

Socioeconomic gradients in all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality among immigrants and long-term residents using linked death records in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine; Rosella, Laura C

2017-07-01

Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Combined effect of individual and neighbourhood socioeconomic status on mortality of rheumatoid arthritis patients under universal health care coverage system.

PubMed

Chen, Cheng-Hsin; Huang, Kuang-Yung; Wang, Jen-Yu; Huang, Hsien-Bin; Chou, Pesus; Lee, Ching-Chih

2015-02-01

The National Health Insurance program in Taiwan is a public insurance system for the entire population of Taiwan initiated since March 1995. However, the association of socioeconomic status (SES) and prognosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients under this program has not been identified. Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we aimed to examine the combined effect of individual and neighbourhood SES on the mortality rates of RA patients under a universal health care coverage system. A study population included patients with RA from 2004 to 2008. The primary end point was the 5-year overall mortality rate. Individual SES was categorized into low, moderate and high levels based on the income-related insurance payment amount. Neighbourhood SES was defined by household income and neighbourhoods were grouped as an 'advantaged' area or a 'disadvantaged' area. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to compare outcomes between different SES categories. A two-sided P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Medical data of 23900 RA patients from 2004 to 2008 were reviewed. Analysis of the combined effect of individual SES and neighbourhood SES revealed that 5-year mortality rates were worse among RA patients with a low individual SES compared to those with a high SES (P < 0.001). In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, RA patients with low individual SES in disadvantaged neighbourhoods incurred the highest risk of mortality (Hazard ratio = 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.13, P < 0.001). RA patients with a low SES have a higher overall mortality rate than those with a higher SES, even with a universal health care system. It is crucial that more public policy and health care efforts be put into alleviating the health disadvantages, besides providing treatment payment coverage. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trends and social differentials in child mortality in Rwanda 1990-2010: results from three demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Musafili, Aimable; Essén, Birgitta; Baribwira, Cyprien; Binagwaho, Agnes; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2015-09-01

Rwanda has embarked on ambitious programmes to provide equitable health services and reduce mortality in childhood. Evidence from other countries indicates that advances in child survival often have come at the expense of increasing inequity. Our aims were to analyse trends and social differentials in mortality before the age of 5 years in Rwanda from 1990 to 2010. We performed secondary analyses of data from three Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in Rwanda. These surveys included 34 790 children born between 1990 and 2010 to women aged 15-49 years. The main outcome measures were neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) over time, and in relation to mother's educational level, urban or rural residence and household wealth. Generalised linear mixed effects models and a mixed effects Cox model (frailty model) were used, with adjustments for confounders and cluster sampling method. Mortality rates in Rwanda peaked in 1994 at the time of the genocide (NMR 60/1000 live births, 95% CI 51 to 65; U5MR 238/1000 live births, 95% CI 226 to 251). The 1990s and the first half of the 2000s were characterised by a marked rural/urban divide and inequity in child survival between maternal groups with different levels of education. Towards the end of the study period (2005-2010) NMR had been reduced to 26/1000 (95% CI 23 to 29) and U5MR to 65/1000 (95% CI 61 to 70), with little or no difference between urban and rural areas, and household wealth groups, while children of women with no education still had significantly higher U5MR. Recent reductions in child mortality in Rwanda have concurred with improved social equity in child survival. Current challenges include the prevention of newborn deaths. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[The analysis of the trend of mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015].

PubMed

Ye, P P; Er, Y L; Jin, Y; Duan, L L

2018-05-06

Objective: To understand the status and trend of the mortality rate of falls in different gender, age groups and provinces in China from 1990 to 2015, to explore the number of subgroups of different trends in all provinces, and to determine the different trajectory of subgroups. Methods: Using the mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015 from the Global Disease Burden 2015 (data covers 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, as well as Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan Province) to describe the status of the mortality rate of falls in different gender, age group and provinces in China 2015 and to calculate the corresponding relative change. Using log linear model to calculate the annual percent changes from 1990 to 2015. The number of subgroups and corresponding characteristics of different trajectories were analyzed by trajectory model to analyze with four indicators, P value of the coefficient of independent variables with different orders in all subgroups, Bayesian information criterion, log Bayes factor and average posterior probability. Results: In 2015, the age standardized mortality rate of falls in China was 8.38/100 000 (95 %UI : 5.54/100 000-9.30/100 000), which was higher in men (10.81/100 000, 95 %UI : 6.58/100 000-12.14/100 000) than that in women (5.84/100 000,95 %UI : 3.41/100 000-6.62/100 000), and in the elderly aged 70-year-old and above (60.50/100 000, 95 %UI : 38.36/100 000-67.75/100 000) than that in other age groups. From 1990 to 2015, there was no obvious change in the age standardized mortality rate of falls in total population, men and women with average percent change about 0.37 (95 %UI : -0.08-0.83), 0.45 (95 %UI : 0.05-0.84) and 0.31 (95 %UI : -0.26-0.87) respectively, but a significant decrease and increase could be seen in children under 15-year-old, especially under 5-year-old with average percent change about -4.07 (95 %UI : -5.62--2.51), and the elderly aged 70-year-old and above with average percent change about 1.89 (95 %UI : 1.42-2.37) respectively. Four types of trajectories could be categorized for different trends of age standardized mortality rate of falls in all provinces. The first group had the lowest fall mortality with a downward trend. The fall mortality was close in the second and third group but with different change tendency, a decreasing propensity in the former and an increasing one in the latter. The fourth group had the highest fall morality with obvious fluctuation. Conclusion: There was no significant change in the age standardized mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015. However, the trend of age standardized mortality rate of falls varied in different age and provinces during the same period of time.

Asbestos-related occupational cancers compensated under the Spanish National Insurance System, 1978-2011.

PubMed

García-Gómez, Montserrat; Menéndez-Navarro, Alfredo; López, Rosario Castañeda

2015-01-01

In 1978, asbestos-related occupational cancers were added to the Spanish list of occupational diseases. However, there are no full accounts of compensated cases since their inclusion. To analyze the cases of asbestos-related cancer recognized as occupational in Spain between 1978 and 2011. Cases were obtained from the Spanish Employment Ministry. Specific incidence rates by year, economic activity, and occupation were obtained. We compared mortality rates of mesothelioma and bronchus and lung cancer mortality in Spain and the European Union. Between 1978 and 2011, 164 asbestos-related occupational cancers were recognized in Spain, with a mean annual rate of 0·08 per 10(5) employees (0·13 in males, 0·002 in females). Under-recognition rates were an estimated 93·6% (males) and 99·7% (females) for pleural mesothelioma and 98·8% (males) and 100% (females) for bronchus and lung cancer. In Europe for the year 2000, asbestos-related occupational cancer rates ranged from 0·04 per 10(5) employees in Spain to 7·32 per 10(5) employees in Norway. These findings provide evidence of gross under-recognition of asbestos-related occupational cancers in Spain. Future work should investigate cases treated in the National Healthcare System to better establish the impact of asbestos on health in Spain.

American-Indian diabetes mortality in the Great Plains Region 2002–2010

PubMed Central

Kelley, Allyson; Giroux, Jennifer; Schulz, Mark; Aronson, Bob; Wallace, Debra; Bell, Ronny; Morrison, Sharon

2015-01-01

Objective To compare American-Indian and Caucasian mortality rates from diabetes among tribal Contract Health Service Delivery Areas (CHSDAs) in the Great Plains Region (GPR) and describe the disparities observed. Research design and methods Mortality data from the National Center for Vital Statistics and Seer*STAT were used to identify diabetes as the underlying cause of death for each decedent in the GPR from 2002 to 2010. Mortality data were abstracted and aggregated for American-Indians and Caucasians for 25 reservation CHSDAs in the GPR. Rate ratios (RR) with 95% CIs were used and SEER*Stat V.8.0.4 software calculated age-adjusted diabetes mortality rates. Results Age-adjusted mortality rates for American-Indians were significantly higher than those for Caucasians during the 8-year period. In the GPR, American-Indians were 3.44 times more likely to die from diabetes than Caucasians. South Dakota had the highest RR (5.47 times that of Caucasians), and Iowa had the lowest RR, (1.1). Reservation CHSDA RR ranged from 1.78 to 10.25. Conclusions American-Indians in the GPR have higher diabetes mortality rates than Caucasians in the GPR. Mortality rates among American-Indians persist despite special programs and initiatives aimed at reducing diabetes in these populations. Effective and immediate efforts are needed to address premature diabetes mortality among American-Indians in the GPR. PMID:25926992

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Fazzio, Ila; Mann, Vera; Boone, Peter

2011-09-02

Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52433336.

Closing the gaps in child health in the Pacific: An achievable goal in the next 20 years

PubMed Central

Duke, Trevor; Kado, Joseph H; Auto, James; Amini, James; Gilbert, Katherine

2015-01-01

It is not inconceivable that by 2035 the substantial gaps in child health across the Pacific can close significantly. Currently, Australia and New Zealand have child mortality rates of 5 and 6 per 1000 live births, respectively, while Pacific island developing nations have under 5 mortality rates ranging from 13 to 16 (Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga) to 47 and 58 per 1000 live births (Kiribati and Papua New Guinea, respectively). However, these Pacific child mortality rates are falling, by an average of 1.4% per year since 1990, and more rapidly (1.9% per year) since 2000. Based on progress elsewhere, there is a need to (i) define the specific things needed to close the gaps in child health; (ii) be far more ambitious and hopeful than ever before; and (iii) form a new regional compact based on solidarity and interdependence. PMID:25586845

Socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality in rural Bangladesh: evidence from seven national surveys spreading over 20 years.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Asiful Haidar; Hanifi, Syed Manzoor Ahmed; Mia, Mohammad Nahid; Bhuiya, Abbas

2017-11-13

Socioeconomic inequality in health and mortality remains a disturbing reality across nations including Bangladesh. Inequality drew renewed attention globally. Bangladesh though made impressive progress in health, it makes an interesting case for learning. This paper examined the trends and changing pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality in rural Bangladesh. It also examined whether mother's education had any effect in reducing socioeconomic inequalities. Data from rural samples of seven Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys, carried out so far, were used. Children born alive during 5 years preceding the surveys were included in the analysis. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out. Under-five mortality rate steadily declined over the years from 128/1000 in 1994 to 48 in 2014. Females had 8% lower mortality rates than males. Children of mothers with no schooling had 1.88 times higher mortality than those whose mother had six or more years of schooling. Similarly, children from low asset category households had on an average 1.17 times higher mortality rate than those from high asset category households. Inequality by mother's education disappeared in the recent years, and inequality by household socioeconomic condition persisted all through. The pattern of inequality by sex, mother's education, and household socioeconomic status was not changed statistically significantly over the years, and mothers' education did not reduce socioeconomic inequalities. The reduction in mortality was consistent with changes in the proximate determinants of child survival in the country. Proximate determinants included maternal factors, environmental contamination, nutrient deficiency, personal illness control, and injury. Health and population programmes have been effective in increasing immunization coverage, use of ORS for managing diarrhoeal diseases, and increasing contraceptive use. Development activities on the other hand raised the literacy, especially among females, demand for modern health services, and reduction of poverty. However, socioeconomic inequality still exists in both under-five mortality and proximate determinants of child survival. The socioeconomic inequality in under-five mortality is showing resistance against further reduction. An assessment of the adequacy of the existing programmes taking the proximate determinants of child survival into consideration will be useful for further improvement.

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population. PMID:23046791

Recent diabetes-related mortality trends in Romania.

PubMed

Ioacara, Sorin; Sava, Elisabeta; Georgescu, Olivia; Sirbu, Anca; Fica, Simona

2018-05-17

As there are no published articles on country-level diabetes-related mortality in Romania, we aimed to investigate this aspect for the 1998-2015 period. Anonymized demographic and diabetes-related mortality data (underlying or first secondary cause of death) were retrospectively obtained from the National Institute of Statistics/Eurostat microdata. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and their annual percentage change (APC) were analysed. During 1998-2015, 4,567,899 persons died in Romania, among whom, diabetes was responsible for 168,854 cases. The ASMR for diabetes was 39.34 per 100,000 person-years (p-y) (95% CI 39.32-39.35). There was an increase in ASMR from 27.10 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 27.01-27.19) in women and 30.88 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 30.77-30.99) in men in 1998 to 35.42 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 35.34-35.51) in women and 48.41 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 48.29-48.52) in men, in 2015. The mean APC in women was 3.8% per year (95% CI 3.5-4.0, p < 0.001) during 1998-2010 and - 1.9% per year (95% CI - 2.7 to - 1.1, p < 0.001) during 2010-2015. The mean APC in men was 5.3% per year (95% CI 5.0-5.5, p < 0.001) during 1998-2010 and - 1.5% per year (95% CI - 2.2 to - 0.8, p < 0.001) during 2010-2015. Diabetes-related mortality rates increased with age, with men experiencing higher mortality rates than women for most age groups and calendar years. Diabetes-related mortality rates increased significantly in Romania during 1998-2010, followed by a steady decline during 2010-2015.

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

PubMed Central

Sawyer, Cheryl Chriss

2012-01-01

Introduction Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s. Methods and Findings Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter. Conclusions The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952433

Excess under-5 female mortality across India: a spatial analysis using 2011 census data.

PubMed

Guilmoto, Christophe Z; Saikia, Nandita; Tamrakar, Vandana; Bora, Jayanta Kumar

2018-06-01

Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1-22·6) in India 2000-2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000-293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. None. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Age and sex of surgeons and mortality of older surgical patients: observational study

PubMed Central

Jena, Anupam B; Orav, E John; Blumenthal, Daniel M; Tsai, Thomas C; Mehtsun, Winta T; Jha, Ashish K

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate whether patients’ mortality differs according to the age and sex of surgeons. Design Observational study. Setting US acute care hospitals. Participants 100% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65-99 years who underwent one of 20 major non-elective surgeries between 2011 and 2014. Main outcome measure Operative mortality rate of patients, defined as death during hospital admission or within 30 days of the operative procedure, after adjustment for patients’ and surgeons’ characteristics and indicator variables for hospitals. Results 892 187 patients who were treated by 45 826 surgeons were included. Patients’ mortality was lower for older surgeons than for younger surgeons: the adjusted operative mortality rates were 6.6% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.7%), 6.5% (6.4% to 6.6%), 6.4% (6.3% to 6.5%), and 6.3% (6.2% to 6.5%) for surgeons aged under 40 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, and 60 years or over, respectively (P for trend=0.001). There was no evidence that adjusted operative mortality differed between patients treated by female versus male surgeons (adjusted mortality 6.3% for female surgeons versus 6.5% for male surgeons; adjusted odds ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01). After stratification by sex of surgeon, patients’ mortality declined with age of surgeon for both male and female surgeons (except for female surgeons aged 60 or older); female surgeons in their 50s had the lowest operative mortality. Conclusion Using national data on Medicare beneficiaries in the US, this study found that patients treated by older surgeons had lower mortality than patients treated by younger surgeons. There was no evidence that operative mortality differed between male and female surgeons. PMID:29695473

An ecological analysis of PM2.5 concentrations and lung cancer mortality rates in China.

PubMed

Fu, Jingying; Jiang, Dong; Lin, Gang; Liu, Kun; Wang, Qiao

2015-11-24

To explore the association between Particulate Matter (PM)2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) and lung cancer mortality rates and to estimate the potential risk of lung cancer mortality related to exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations. Geographically weighted regression was performed to evaluate the relation between PM2.5 concentrations and lung cancer mortality for males, females and for both sexes combined, in 2008, based on newly available long-term data. Lung cancer fatalities from long-term exposure to PM2.5 were calculated according to studies by Pope III et al and the WHO air quality guidelines (AQGs). 31 provinces in China. PM2.5 was associated with the lung cancer mortality of males, females and both sexes combined, in China, although there were exceptions in several regions, for males and females. The number of lung cancer fatalities calculated by the WHO AQGs ranged from 531,036 to 532,004, whereas the number calculated by the American Cancer Society (ACS) reached 614,860 after long-term (approximately 3-4 years) exposure to PM2.5 concentrations since 2008. There is a positive correlation between PM2.5 and lung cancer mortality rate, and the relationship between them varies across the entire country of China. The number of lung cancer fatalities estimated by ACS was closer to the actual data than those of the WHO AQGs. Therefore, the ACS estimate of increased risk of lung cancer mortality from long-term exposure to PM2.5 might be more applicable for evaluating lung cancer fatalities in China than the WHO estimate. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Neonatal Mortality and Inequalities in Bangladesh: Differential Progress and Sub-national Developments.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-09-01

A rapid reduction in under-five mortality has put Bangladesh on-track to reach Millennium Development Goal 4. Little research, however, has been conducted into neonatal reductions and sub-national rates in the country, with considerable disparities potentially masked by national reductions. The aim of this paper is to estimate national and sub-national rates of neonatal mortality to compute relative and absolute inequalities between sub-national groups and draw comparisons with rates of under-five mortality. Mortality rates for under-five children and neonates were estimated directly for 1980-1981 to 2010-2011 using data from six waves of the Demographic and Health Survey. Rates were stratified by levels of rural/urban location, household wealth and maternal education. Absolute and relative inequalities within these groups were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. National mortality was shown to have decreased dramatically although at differential rates for under-fives and neonates. Across all equity markers, a general pattern of declining absolute but constant relative inequalities was found. For mortality rates stratified by education and wealth mixed evidence suggests that relative inequalities may have also fallen. Although disparities remain, Bangladesh has achieved a rare combination of substantive reductions in mortality levels without increases in relative inequalities. A coalescence of substantial increases in coverage and equitable distribution of key child and neonatal interventions with widespread health sectoral and policy changes over the last 30 years may in part explain this exceptional pattern.

Location matters: trends in inequalities in child mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Hodge, Andrew; Firth, Sonja; Marthias, Tiara; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2014-01-01

Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography. Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980-2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth. Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened. Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997-98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.

Warmer is healthier: effects on mortality rates of changes in average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and temperatures in 100 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Cox, Louis A; Popken, Douglas A; Ricci, Paolo F

2013-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that reducing particulate pollution would substantially reduce average daily mortality rates, prolonging lives, especially among the elderly (age ≥ 75). These benefits are projected by statistical models of significant positive associations between levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and daily mortality rates. We examine the empirical correspondence between changes in average PM2.5 levels and temperatures from 1999 to 2000, and corresponding changes in average daily mortality rates, in each of 100 U.S. cities in the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) data base, which has extensive PM2.5, temperature, and mortality data for those 2 years. Increases in average daily temperatures appear to significantly reduce average daily mortality rates, as expected from previous research. Unexpectedly, reductions in PM2.5 do not appear to cause any reductions in mortality rates. PM2.5 and mortality rates are both elevated on cold winter days, creating a significant positive statistical relation between their levels, but we find no evidence that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations cause reductions in mortality rates. For all concerned, it is crucial to use causal relations, rather than statistical associations, to project the changes in human health risks due to interventions such as reductions in particulate air pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality prediction using TRISS methodology in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI).

PubMed

Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J

2016-10-01

To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Geographic disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015: a population-based study.

PubMed

Kang, Leni; He, Chunhua; Miao, Lei; Liang, Juan; Zhu, Jun; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Qi; Wang, Yanping

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) among and within three geographic regions in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015. Data were obtained from the national Under-Five Child Mortality Surveillance System and grouped into 2-year periods. The Cochran-Armitage trend test and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test were used to assess trends and differences in the pneumonia-specific U5MRs among and within geographic regions. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. The pneumonia-specific U5MR decreased by 90.6%, 89.0%, and 83.5% in East, Middle, and West China, respectively, with a larger decrease in rural areas. The pneumonia-specific U5MR was highest in West China, and was 7.2 (95% CI 5.9-8.7) times higher than that in East China in 2014-2015. In 2014-2015, the RRs were 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.5), 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), and 3.4 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) between rural and urban areas in East, Middle, and West China, respectively. Pneumonia-specific U5MRs decreased from 1996 to 2015 across China, particularly in rural areas. However, disparities remained among and within geographic regions. Additional strategies and interventions should be introduced in West China, especially the rural areas, to further reduce the pneumonia-specific U5MR. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and underlying etiologies of neonatal hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Najati, N; Saboktakin, L

2010-08-01

This study aims at determining the prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia and its underlying causes. In this prospective study 14168 newborns delivered in Tabriz Alzahra Hospital during 2 years were evaluated in regard to blood glucose level at first 24 h of life. Glucose oxidase method with 4-aminophenazone with a Greiner G-300 was the used method for determining the blood glucose level. Cases with blood glucose < 50 mg dL(-1) were considered as hypoglycemic newborns. Underlying causes of this condition, as well as the short-term mortality rate were determined. Prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia was 0.4% (52 newborns). Underlying causes of hypoglycemia were prematurity (61.5%), diabetic mother (13.6%), septicemia (9.6%), perinatal asphyxia (9.6%), stress (3.8%) and neonatal hyperinsulinism (1.9%). The mortality rate was 53.8%, with prematurity as the leading cause of death.

Are the Poor Dying Younger in Malaysia? An Examination of the Socioeconomic Gradient in Mortality

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Socioeconomic inequalities in health represent unfairness in the health distribution of a population. Efforts to produce information on mortality distributions in many low and middle income countries (LMICs) are mostly hampered by lack of data disaggregated by socioeconomic groups. In this paper we describe how mortality statistics obtained from multiple data sources were combined to provide an evaluation of the socioeconomic distribution of mortality in Malaysia, a LMIC located in the Asia Pacific region. Methods This study has an ecological design. As a measure of socioeconomic status, we used principal component analysis to construct a socioeconomic index using census data. Districts were ranked according to the standardised median index of households and assigned to each individual in the 5-year mortality data. The mortality indicators of interest were potential years of life lost (PYLL), standardised mortality ratio (SMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Both socioeconomic status and mortality outcomes were used compute the concentration index which provided the summary measure of the magnitude of inequality. Results Socially disadvantaged districts were found to have worse mortality outcomes compared to more advantaged districts. The values of the concentration index for the overall population of the Peninsula are C = -0.1334 (95% CI: -0.1605 to -0.1063) for the PYLL, C = -0.0685 (95% CI: -0.0928 to -0.0441) for the SMR, C = -0.0997 (95% CI: -0.1343 to -0.0652) for the IMR and C = -0.1207 (95% CI: -0.1523 to -0.0891) for the U5MR. Mortality outcomes within ethnic groups were also found to be less favourable among the poor. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic inequalities disfavouring the poor exist in Malaysia. PMID:27362581

Are the Poor Dying Younger in Malaysia? An Examination of the Socioeconomic Gradient in Mortality.

PubMed

Mariapun, Jeevitha; Hairi, Noran N; Ng, Chiu-Wan

2016-01-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in health represent unfairness in the health distribution of a population. Efforts to produce information on mortality distributions in many low and middle income countries (LMICs) are mostly hampered by lack of data disaggregated by socioeconomic groups. In this paper we describe how mortality statistics obtained from multiple data sources were combined to provide an evaluation of the socioeconomic distribution of mortality in Malaysia, a LMIC located in the Asia Pacific region. This study has an ecological design. As a measure of socioeconomic status, we used principal component analysis to construct a socioeconomic index using census data. Districts were ranked according to the standardised median index of households and assigned to each individual in the 5-year mortality data. The mortality indicators of interest were potential years of life lost (PYLL), standardised mortality ratio (SMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Both socioeconomic status and mortality outcomes were used compute the concentration index which provided the summary measure of the magnitude of inequality. Socially disadvantaged districts were found to have worse mortality outcomes compared to more advantaged districts. The values of the concentration index for the overall population of the Peninsula are C = -0.1334 (95% CI: -0.1605 to -0.1063) for the PYLL, C = -0.0685 (95% CI: -0.0928 to -0.0441) for the SMR, C = -0.0997 (95% CI: -0.1343 to -0.0652) for the IMR and C = -0.1207 (95% CI: -0.1523 to -0.0891) for the U5MR. Mortality outcomes within ethnic groups were also found to be less favourable among the poor. The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic inequalities disfavouring the poor exist in Malaysia.

The mortality patterns of lung cancer between 1990 and 2013 in Xuanwei, China.

PubMed

Chen, Gongbo; Sun, Xin; Ren, Hongyan; Wan, Xia; Huang, Hecang; Ma, Xiangyun; Ning, Bofu; Zou, Xiaonong; Hu, Weijiang; Yang, Gonghuan

2015-11-01

To explore the variations in the mortality trends, especially death due to lung cancer, from 1990 to 2013 in Xuanwei City. Mortality data were collected in Xuanwei during the 2nd and 3rd National Retrospective Sampling Survey on Mortality and Routine Death Registration System (DRS) during 2011-2013. According to the result of the survey on under-reported deaths, mortality data from DRS during 2011-2013 were adjusted. Disease specific mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and 45Q15 were calculated in Xuanwei and compared with those in rural areas of China. During three periods, 1990-1992, 2004-2005 and 2011-2013, lung cancer contributed to 56.86%, 58.45% and 63.03% of deaths from all cancers respectively with a much higher proportion than rural areas nationally. The ASMR of lung cancer for males surged from 41.43/10(5) to 88.17/10(5) during 1990-2005 and it surged from 37.70/10(5) to 74.45/10(5) for females. Although they declined slightly during 2011-2013 (82.53/10(5) and 62.62/10(5) for males and females respectively), the ASMR of lung cancer among males in Xuanwei was three times of that in rural areas in China, and it was six times higher among females. The 45Q15 of lung cancer for males in Xuanwei was 3-5 times of that in rural areas of China and for females it was 7-9 times. The high-mortality areas of lung cancer were still located in Laibin, Longchang, Wanshui and Shuanglong Communities. High-mortality areas of lung cancer expanded to their surrounding areas and those in southeast. Although indoor air pollution caused by smoky coal has been fairly well controlled, patterns of death due to lung cancer have not obviously changed. The mortality rate of lung cancer among females was similar to that among males. Therefore, further studies should be conducted to comprehensively explore the risk factors of lung cancer in Xuanwei. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

[Trends in mortality from scorpion stings in Mexico, 1979-2003].

PubMed

Celis, Alfredo; Gaxiola-Robles, Ramón; Sevilla-Godínez, Elizabeth; Orozco Valerio, María de Jesús; Armas, Jesús

2007-06-01

To describe the trends in mortality from scorpion stings in Mexico as a whole and in each of its states for the period of 1979 to 2003. We estimated the crude and standardized mortality rates due to scorpion stings and the trends during the period studied based on official mortality data for Mexico, using the codes (E905.2 and X22, respectively) from the 9th and 10th editions of the International Classification of Diseases. The results were stratified by age group. The frequencies of deaths from scorpion stings were compared using relative risk (RR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Between 1979 and 2003 in Mexico, 6,077 deaths from scorpion stings were registered. A statistically significant downward trend was found in standardized mortality rates (beta = -0.195; P < or = 0.001), with a total reduction of 86.5% for the period of 2001-2003 versus 1979-1982. For the 2001-2003 period, the highest mortality rates were in children under 1 year of age (7.07 per 1,000,000), children 1 to 4 years old (3.78 per 1,000,000), persons 60 and older (0.84 per 1,000,000), and males (0.81 per 1,000,000). Persons in communities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants had a relative risk that was 11.8 times (95% CI: 7.86 to 17.72) that found in communities with more than 20,000 inhabitants. The states with the highest mortality rates were in the central and western regions of the country. Despite the sustained decline in the number of deaths from scorpion stings in the last 20 years in Mexico, there is still an important public health problem. The groups that are most affected are children under 5 and the elderly. Measures should be taken so that in all communities, especially small ones, adequate resources and information are available to provide for the prompt care of persons who suffer a scorpion sting.

Severe hyperkalemia requiring hospitalization: predictors of mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Severe hyperkalemia, with potassium (K+) levels ≥ 6.5 mEq/L, is a potentially life-threatening electrolyte imbalance. For prompt and effective treatment, it is important to know its risk factors, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality. Methods An observational cohort study was performed at 2 medical centers. A total of 923 consecutive Korean patients were analyzed. All were 19 years of age or older and were hospitalized with severe hyperkalemia between August 2007 and July 2010; the diagnosis of severe hyperkalemia was made either at the time of admission to the hospital or during the period of hospitalization. Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis were assessed, and clinical outcomes such as in-hospital mortality were reviewed, using the institutions' electronic medical record systems. Results Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was the most common underlying medical condition, and the most common precipitating factor of hyperkalemia was metabolic acidosis. Emergent admission was indicated in 68.6% of patients, 36.7% had electrocardiogram findings typical of hyperkalemia, 24.5% had multi-organ failure (MOF) at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis, and 20.3% were diagnosed with severe hyperkalemia at the time of cardiac arrest. The in-hospital mortality rate was 30.7%; the rate was strongly correlated with the difference between serum K+ levels at admission and at their highest point, and with severe medical conditions such as malignancy, infection, and bleeding. Furthermore, a higher in-hospital mortality rate was significantly associated with the presence of cardiac arrest and/or MOF at the time of diagnosis, emergent admission, and intensive care unit treatment during hospitalization. More importantly, acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with normal baseline renal function was a strong predictor of mortality, compared with AKI superimposed on CKD. Conclusions Severe hyperkalemia occurs in various medical conditions; the precipitating factors are similarly diverse. The mortality rate is especially high in patients with severe underlying disease, coexisting medical conditions, and those with normal baseline renal function. PMID:23171442

Determinants of under-five mortality in rural and urban Kenya.

PubMed

Ettarh, R R; Kimani, J

2012-01-01

The disparity in under-five year-old mortality rates between rural and urban areas in Kenya (also reported in other in sub-Saharan African countries), is a critical national concern. The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of geographical location and maternal factors on the likelihood of mortality among under-five children in rural and urban areas in Kenya. Data from the 2008-2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey were used to determine mortality among under-five children (n=16,162) in rural and urban areas in the 5 years preceding the survey. Multivariate analysis was used to compare the influence of key risk factors in rural and urban areas. Overall, the likelihood of death among under-five children in the rural areas was significantly higher than that in the urban areas (p<0.05). Household poverty was a key predictor for mortality in the rural areas, but the influence of breastfeeding was similar in the two areas. The likelihood of under-five mortality was significantly higher in the rural areas of Coast, Nyanza and Western Provinces than in Central Province. The study shows that the determinants of under-five mortality differ in rural and urban areas in Kenya. Innovative and targeted strategies are required to address rural poverty and province-specific sociocultural factors in order to improve child survival in rural Kenya.

Comparing progress toward the millennium development goal for under-five mortality in León and Cuatro Santos, Nicaragua, 1990–2008

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Social inequality in child survival hampers the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4). Monitoring under-five mortality in different social strata may contribute to public health policies that strive to reduce social inequalities. This population-based study examines the trends, causes, and social inequality of mortality before the age of five years in rural and urban areas in Nicaragua. Methods The study was conducted in one rural (Cuatro Santos) and one urban/rural area (León) based on data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We analyzed live births from 1990 to 2005 in the urban/rural area and from 1990 to 2008 in the rural area. The annual average rate reduction (AARR) and social under-five mortality inequality were calculated using the education level of the mother as a proxy for socio-economic position. Causes of child death were based on systematic interviews (verbal autopsy). Results Under-five mortality in all areas is declining at a rate sufficient to achieve MDG4 by 2015. Urban León showed greater reduction (AARR = 8.5%) in mortality and inequality than rural León (AARR = 4.5%) or Cuatro Santos (AARR = 5.4%). Social inequality in mortality had increased in rural León and no improvement in survival was observed among mothers who had not completed primary school. However, the poor and remote rural area Cuatro Santos was on track to reach MDG4 with equitable child survival. Most of the deaths in both areas were due to neonatal conditions and infectious diseases. Conclusions All rural and urban areas in Nicaragua included in this study were on track to reach MDG4, but social stratification in child survival showed different patterns; unfavorable patterns with increasing inequity in the peri-urban rural zone and a more equitable development in the urban as well as the poor and remote rural area. An equitable progress in child survival may also be accelerated in very poor settings. PMID:24428933

Mortality in Children Under Five Receiving Nonphysician Clinician Emergency Care in Uganda.

PubMed

Rice, Brian; Periyanayagam, Usha; Chamberlain, Stacey; Dreifuss, Bradley; Hammerstedt, Heather; Nelson, Sara; Maling, Samuel; Bisanzo, Mark

2016-03-01

A nonphysician clinician (NPC) training program was started in Uganda in 2009. NPC care was initially supervised by a physician and subsequent care was independent. The mortality of children under 5 (U5) was analyzed to evaluate the impact of transitioning NPC care from physician-supervised to independent care. A retrospective review was performed of a quality assurance database including 3-day follow-up for all patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Mortality rates were calculated and χ(2) tests used for significance of proportions. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess independent predictors of mortality. Overall, 68.8% of 4985 U5 patients were admitted and 28.6% were "severely ill." The overall mortality was significantly lower in physician-supervised versus independent NPC care (2.90% vs 5.04%, P = .05). No significant mortality difference was seen between supervised and unsupervised care (2.17% vs 3.01%, P = .43) for the majority of patients that were not severely ill. Severely ill patients analyzed separately showed a significant mortality difference (4.07% vs 10.3%, P = .01). Logistic regression revealed physician supervision significantly reduced mortality for patients overall (odds ratio = 0.52, P = .03), but not for nonseverely ill patients analyzed separately (odds ratio = 0.73, P = .47). Though physician supervision reduced mortality for the severely ill subset of patients, physicians are not available full-time in most EDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Training NPCs in emergency care produced noninferior mortality outcomes for unsupervised NPC care compared with physician-supervised NPC care for the majority of U5 patients. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The effect of queen pheromone status on Varroa mite removal from honey bee colonies with different grooming ability.

PubMed

Bahreini, Rassol; Currie, Robert W

2015-07-01

The objective of this study was to assess the effects of honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) with different grooming ability and queen pheromone status on mortality rates of Varroa mites (Varroa destructor Anderson and Trueman), mite damage, and mortality rates of honey bees. Twenty-four small queenless colonies containing either stock selected for high rates of mite removal (n = 12) or unselected stock (n = 12) were maintained under constant darkness at 5 °C. Colonies were randomly assigned to be treated with one of three queen pheromone status treatments: (1) caged, mated queen, (2) a synthetic queen mandibular pheromone lure (QMP), or (3) queenless with no queen substitute. The results showed overall mite mortality rate was greater in stock selected for grooming than in unselected stock. There was a short term transitory increase in bee mortality rates in selected stock when compared to unselected stock. The presence of queen pheromone from either caged, mated queens or QMP enhanced mite removal from clusters of bees relative to queenless colonies over short periods of time and increased the variation in mite mortality over time relative to colonies without queen pheromone, but did not affect the proportion of damaged mites. The effects of source of bees on mite damage varied with time but damage to mites was not reliably related to mite mortality. In conclusion, this study showed differential mite removal of different stocks was possible under low temperature. Queen status should be considered when designing experiments using bioassays for grooming response.

Reducing under-five mortality through Hôpital Albert Schweitzer's integrated system in Haiti.

PubMed

Perry, Henry; Cayemittes, Michel; Philippe, Francois; Dowell, Duane; Dortonne, Jean Richard; Menager, Henri; Bottex, Erve; Berggren, Warren; Berggren, Gretchen

2006-05-01

The degree to which local health systems contribute to reductions in under-five mortality in severely impoverished settings has not been well documented. The current study compares the under-five mortality in the Hôpital Albert Schweitzer (HAS) Primary Health Care Service Area with that for Haiti in general. HAS provides an integrated system of community-based primary health care services, hospital care and community development. A sample of 10% of the women of reproductive age in the HAS service area was interviewed, and 2390 live births and 149 child deaths were documented for the period 1995-99. Under-five mortality rates were computed and compared with rates for Haiti. In addition, available data regarding inputs, processes and outputs for the HAS service area and for Haiti were assembled and compared. Under-five mortality was 58% less in the HAS service area, and mortality for children 12-59 months of age was 76% less. These results were achieved with an input of fewer physicians and hospital beds per capita than is available for Haiti nationwide, but with twice as many graduate nurses and auxiliary nurses per capita than are available nationwide, and with three cadres of health workers that do not exist nationwide: Physician Extenders, Health Agents and Community Health Volunteers. The population coverage of targeted child survival services was generally 1.5-2 times higher in the HAS service area than in rural Haiti. These findings support the conclusion that a well-developed system of primary health care, with outreach services to the household level, integrated with hospital referral care and community development programmes, can make a strong contribution to reducing infant and child mortality in severely impoverished settings.

Mortality and cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Erichsen, R; Horvath-Puho, E; Lund, J L; Dellon, E S; Shaheen, N J; Pedersen, L; Davey Smith, G; Sørensen, H T

2017-04-01

Patients with Barrett's oesophagus may be at increased risk of mortality overall, and cardiovascular disease has been suggested as the main underlying cause of death. To examine cause-specific mortality and risk of cardiovascular events among patients with Barrett's oesophagus. Utilising existing Danish data sources (1997-2011), we identified all patients with histologically verified Barrett's oesophagus (n = 13 435) and 123 526 members of the general population matched by age, sex and individual comorbidities. We calculated cause-specific mortality rates and incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases. We then compared rates between patients with Barrett's oesophagus and the general population comparison cohort, using stratified Cox proportional hazard regression. Patients with Barrett's oesophagus had a 71% increased risk of overall mortality. The cause-specific mortality rate per 1000 person-years for patients with Barrett's oesophagus was 8.5 for cardiovascular diseases, 14.7 for non-oesophageal cancers, and 5.4 for oesophageal cancer. Compared to the general population cohort, corresponding hazard ratios were 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.38), 1.77 (95% CI: 1.65-1.90), and 19.4 (95% CI: 16.1-23.4), respectively. The incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases per 1000 person-years for Barrett's oesophagus patients and for persons from the general population cohort, respectively, varied from 0.4 and 0.2 for subarachnoid bleeding (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% CI: 0.87-1.39) to 8.1 and 5.9 for congestive heart failure (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% CI: 1.21-1.46). Prophylactic measures targeted at cardiovascular diseases and non-oesophageal cancers potentially could be more important than measures against oesophageal cancer, for improving prognosis among patients with Barrett's oesophagus. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neurodegenerative causes of death among retired National Football League players.

PubMed

Lehman, Everett J; Hein, Misty J; Baron, Sherry L; Gersic, Christine M

2012-11-06

To analyze neurodegenerative causes of death, specifically Alzheimer disease (AD), Parkinson disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), among a cohort of professional football players. This was a cohort mortality study of 3,439 National Football League players with at least 5 pension-credited playing seasons from 1959 to 1988. Vital status was ascertained through 2007. For analysis purposes, players were placed into 2 strata based on characteristics of position played: nonspeed players (linemen) and speed players (all other positions except punter/kicker). External comparisons with the US population used standardized mortality ratios (SMRs); internal comparisons between speed and nonspeed player positions used standardized rate ratios (SRRs). Overall player mortality compared with that of the US population was reduced (SMR 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48-0.59). Neurodegenerative mortality was increased using both underlying cause of death rate files (SMR 2.83, 95% CI 1.36-5.21) and multiple cause of death (MCOD) rate files (SMR 3.26, 95% CI 1.90-5.22). Of the neurodegenerative causes, results were elevated (using MCOD rates) for both ALS (SMR 4.31, 95% CI 1.73-8.87) and AD (SMR 3.86, 95% CI 1.55-7.95). In internal analysis (using MCOD rates), higher neurodegenerative mortality was observed among players in speed positions compared with players in nonspeed positions (SRR 3.29, 95% CI 0.92-11.7). The neurodegenerative mortality of this cohort is 3 times higher than that of the general US population; that for 2 of the major neurodegenerative subcategories, AD and ALS, is 4 times higher. These results are consistent with recent studies that suggest an increased risk of neurodegenerative disease among football players.

[Trends in the mortality of liver cancer in Qidong, China: an analysis of fifty years].

PubMed

Chen, Jian-guo; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yong-hui; Chen, Yong-sheng; Ding, Lu-lu; Lu, Jian-hua; Zhu, Yuan-rong

2012-07-01

To describe and analyze the charecteristics and trends of liver cancer mortality during the past fifty years in Qidong, China. Retrospective mortality survey was conducted to get the data on liver cancer death in the period of 1958-1971, and the data from 1972 to 2007 were obtained from the records of cancer registration in Qidong. The crude mortality rate (CR) of liver cancer, and age-standardized rate by Chinese population (CASR) and by world population (WASR) were calculated and analyzed. The total percent changes (PC) and annual percent changes (APC) were used for evaluating the increasing trends of the mortality. The sex-specific rate, age-specific rate, truncated rate of the age group 35 - 64, cumulative rate of the age group 0-74, cumulative risk, period-rate, and the rate for age-birth cohort were compared. The natural death rate in Qidong residents for the past five-decade period experienced a wave interval of 8.62‰ in 1958 down to 5.37‰ in 1979, and up to 7.75‰ in 2007. The mortality rate for all-site cancers was increased from 56.69 per 100, 000 to 234.97 per 100, 000. The mortality rate of liver cancer, being 20.45 per 100, 100 in 1958 was increased to 49.04 per 100, 000 in 1972, and up to 69.29 per 100, 000 in 2007. According to the registration data of 1972 - 2007, the death from liver cancer was accounted for 34.88% of all deaths due to cancers, with a CR of 58.86 per 100, 000, CASR of 38.36 per 100, 000, and WASR, 49.37 Per 100, 000 in Qidong. The truncated rate for the age group 35 - 64 was 117.08 per 100, 000, and the cumulative rate for the age group 0-74 and the cumulative risk were 5.15% and 5.02%, respectively. The CRs for males was 90.52 per 100, 000 and for females was 27.93 per 100, 000, with a sex ratio of 3.24:1. For the period of 1972 - 2007, the PC for CR was 49.71%, and APC was +1.41%, showing an increasing variation tendency. The APCs for CASR and WASR, however, were decreasing, with a percentage of -1.11%, and -0.84%, respectively. The age-specific mortality rates by period showed a decreasing trend for those under age of 44. Moreover, age-birth cohort analysis showed a more rapid lowering mortality in the age groups 35-, 30-, 25-, and 15-, that is, those born after 1950's. Liver cancer remains the leading death cause due to cancers in Qidong, with a continuing higher crude mortality rate. Yet the age-standardized mortality rate has presented a declining posture. The liver cancer mortality in young people in Qidong demonstrates a continuously falling trend. The campaign for the control of liver cancer in Qidong has achieved initial success.

Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.

PubMed

Wakefield, Jon; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Godwin, Jessica; Wilson, Katie; Clark, Samuel J

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the under-five mortality rate in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes a new model to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in both spatial and temporal description, that is wishing to estimate under-five mortality rate across regions and years and to investigate the association between the under-five mortality rate and spatially varying covariate surfaces. We illustrate the methodology by producing yearly estimates for subnational areas in Kenya over the period 1980-2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which use stratified cluster sampling. We use a binomial likelihood with fixed effects for the urban/rural strata and random effects for the clustering to account for the complex survey design. Smoothing is carried out using Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous spatial and temporally discrete components. A key component of the model is an offset to adjust for bias due to the effects of HIV epidemics. Substantively, there has been a sharp decline in Kenya in the under-five mortality rate in the period 1980-2014, but large variability in estimated subnational rates remains. A priority for future research is understanding this variability. In exploratory work, we examine whether a variety of spatial covariate surfaces can explain the variability in under-five mortality rate. Temperature, precipitation, a measure of malaria infection prevalence, and a measure of nearness to cities were candidates for inclusion in the covariate model, but the interplay between space, time, and covariates is complex.

Stage-based mortality of grassland grasshoppers (Acrididae) from wandering spider (Lycosidae) predation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oedekoven, Mark A.; Joern, Anthony

1998-12-01

Mortality rates in insects, including grasshoppers (Acrididae), are often stage- or size-specific. We estimated stage-specific mortality rates for three common grasshopper species from a Nebraska (USA) sandhills grassland ( Ageneotettix deorum, Melanoplus sanguinipes and Phoetaliotes nebrascensis), and partitioned the impact due to wandering spider predation from remaining sources. Survivorship was estimated for multiple developmental stages (3rd instar through adult) under experimental conditions that either prevented or permitted predation from free-living, wandering spiders (primarily Schizocosa species). Total stage-specific mortality, including spider predation, examined over the period of single stages was greatest for the youngest stages (91% for 3rd instar, 73% for 4th instar, 63.5% for 5th instar and 30.4% for adults). For the developmental stages considered and averaged for all species, the contribution to total mortality from spider predation over the 10-d period (approximately the length of a developmental stage) ranged from 17% for 3rd instar nymphs to 23% for 4th and 5th instars, and an undetectable level for adults. While spiders may depress grasshopper numbers, contributions from spider predation to grasshopper population dynamics are uncertain.

Disparities in child mortality trends: what is the evidence from disadvantaged states in India? the case of Orissa and Madhya Pradesh.

PubMed

Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dayal, Prarthna; Hodge, Andrew

2013-06-27

The Millennium Development Goals prompted renewed international efforts to reduce under-five mortality and measure national progress. However, scant evidence exists about the distribution of child mortality at low sub-national levels, which in diverse and decentralized countries like India are required to inform policy-making. This study estimates changes in child mortality across a range of markers of inequalities in Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, two of India's largest, poorest, and most disadvantaged states. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using seven datasets from three available sources--sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Inequalities were gauged by comparison of mortality rates within four sub-state populations defined by the following characteristics: rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and district. Trend estimates suggest that progress has been made in mortality rates at the state levels. However, reduction rates have been modest, particularly for neonatal mortality. Different mortality rates are observed across all the equity markers, although there is a pattern of convergence between rural and urban areas, largely due to inadequate progress in urban settings. Inter-district disparities and differences between socioeconomic groups are also evident. Although child mortality rates continue to decline at the national level, our evidence shows that considerable disparities persist. While progress in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality rates in urban areas appears to be levelling off, policies targeting rural populations and scheduled caste and tribe groups appear to have achieved some success in reducing mortality differentials. The results of this study thus add weight to recent government initiatives targeting these groups. Equitable progress, particularly for neonatal mortality, requires continuing efforts to strengthen health systems and overcome barriers to identify and reach vulnerable groups.

Socioeconomic and urban-rural differentials in exposure to air pollution and mortality burden in England.

PubMed

Milojevic, Ai; Niedzwiedz, Claire L; Pearce, Jamie; Milner, James; MacKenzie, Ian A; Doherty, Ruth M; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-06

Socioeconomically disadvantaged populations often have higher exposures to particulate air pollution, which can be expected to contribute to differentials in life expectancy. We examined socioeconomic differentials in exposure and air pollution-related mortality relating to larger scale (5 km resolution) variations in background concentrations of selected pollutants across England. Ozone and particulate matter (sub-divided into PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 2.5-10 , primary, nitrate and sulphate PM 2.5 ) were simulated at 5 km horizontal resolution using an atmospheric chemistry transport model (EMEP4UK). Annual mean concentrations of these pollutants were assigned to all 1,202,578 residential postcodes in England, which were classified by urban-rural status and socioeconomic deprivation based on the income and employment domains of the 2010 English Index of Multiple Deprivation for the Lower-level Super Output Area of residence. We used life table methods to estimate PM 2.5 -attributable life years (LYs) lost in both relative and absolute terms. Concentrations of the most particulate fractions, but not of nitrate PM 2.5 or ozone, were modestly higher in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation. Relationships between pollution level and socioeconomic deprivation were non-linear and varied by urban-rural status. The pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations made only a small contribution to the steep socioeconomic gradient in LYs lost due to PM 2.5 per 10 3 population, which primarily was driven by the steep socioeconomic gradient in underlying mortality rates. In rural areas, the absolute burden of air pollution-related LYs lost was lowest in the most deprived deciles. Air pollution shows modest socioeconomic patterning at 5 km resolution in England, but absolute attributable mortality burdens are strongly related to area-level deprivation because of underlying mortality rates. Measures that cause a general reduction in background concentrations of air pollution may modestly help narrow socioeconomic differences in health.

The Combined Effect of Individual and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status on Cancer Survival Rates

PubMed Central

Lai, Ning-Sheng; Huang, Kuang-Yung; Chien, Sou-Hsin; Chang, Yu-Han; Lian, Wei-Cheng; Hsu, Ta-Wen; Lee, Ching-Chih

2012-01-01

Background This population-based study investigated the relationship between individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality rates for major cancers in Taiwan. Methods A population-based follow-up study was conducted with 20,488 cancer patients diagnosed in 2002. Each patient was traced to death or for 5 years. The individual income-related insurance payment amount was used as a proxy measure of individual SES for patients. Neighborhood SES was defined by income, and neighborhoods were grouped as living in advantaged or disadvantaged areas. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the death-free survival rates between the different SES groups after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results After adjusting for patient characteristics (age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, urbanization, and area of residence), tumor extent, treatment modalities (operation and adjuvant therapy), and hospital characteristics (ownership and teaching level), colorectal cancer, and head and neck cancer patients under 65 years old with low individual SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods conferred a 1.5 to 2-fold higher risk of mortality, compared with patients with high individual SES in advantaged neighborhoods. A cross-level interaction effect was found in lung cancer and breast cancer. Lung cancer and breast cancer patients less than 65 years old with low SES in advantaged neighborhoods carried the highest risk of mortality. Prostate cancer patients aged 65 and above with low SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods incurred the highest risk of mortality. There was no association between SES and mortality for cervical cancer and pancreatic cancer. Conclusions Our findings indicate that cancer patients with low individual SES have the highest risk of mortality even under a universal health-care system. Public health strategies and welfare policies must continue to focus on this vulnerable group. PMID:22957007

Measles mortality in high and low burden districts of India: estimates from a nationally representative study of over 12,000 child deaths.

PubMed

Morris, Shaun K; Awasthi, Shally; Kumar, Rajesh; Shet, Anita; Khera, Ajay; Nakhaee, Fatemeh; Ram, Usha; Brandao, Jose R M; Jha, Prabhat

2013-09-23

Direct estimates of measles mortality in India are unavailable. Our objective is, to use a nationally-representative study of mortality to estimate the number and distribution of, measles deaths in India with a focus on 264 high burden districts. We used physician coded verbal autopsy data from the Million Death Study which surveyed, over 12,000 deaths in children aged 1 month to under 15 years from 1.1 million nationally, representative households in 2001-2003. We estimate there were 92,000 (99% CI 63,000-137,000) measles deaths in children 1-59, months of age in India in 2005, representing a mortality rate of 3.3 (99% CI 2.3-5.0) per 1000 live, births and about 6% of all 1-59 month deaths. In children under 15 years of age, there were 107,000, (99% CI 74,000-158,000) measles deaths. The measles mortality rate was nearly 70% greater in girls, than in boys, and 60% of the deaths were in three populous states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya, Pradesh. The 1-59 month measles mortality rate in high burden districts was 4.48 (99% CI 3.94-5.02) compared to 2.40 (99% CI 2.28-2.52) per 1000 live births in other districts. Measles killed over 100,000 children in India in 2005 and girls were at higher risk than boys. The majority of measles deaths occurred in a few states and high burden districts. The results of this study highlight the importance of focusing measles supplementary immunization activities in high burden districts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in inequalities in premature cancer mortality by educational level in Colombia, 1998-2007.

PubMed

de Vries, Esther; Arroyave, Ivan; Pardo, Constanza; Wiesner, Carolina; Murillo, Raul; Forman, David; Burdorf, Alex; Avendaño, Mauricio

2015-05-01

There is a paucity of studies on socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in developing countries. We examined trends in inequalities in cancer mortality by educational attainment in Colombia during a period of epidemiological transition and rapid expansion of health insurance coverage. Population mortality data (1998-2007) were linked to census data to obtain age-standardised cancer mortality rates by educational attainment at ages 25-64 years for stomach, cervical, prostate, lung, colorectal, breast and other cancers. We used Poisson regression to model mortality by educational attainment and estimated the contribution of specific cancers to the slope index of inequality in cancer mortality. We observed large educational inequalities in cancer mortality, particularly for cancer of the cervix (rate ratio (RR) primary vs tertiary groups=5.75, contributing 51% of cancer inequalities), stomach (RR=2.56 for males, contributing 49% of total cancer inequalities and RR=1.98 for females, contributing 14% to total cancer inequalities) and lung (RR=1.64 for males contributing 17% of total cancer inequalities and 1.32 for females contributing 5% to total cancer inequalities). Total cancer mortality rates declined faster among those with higher education, with the exception of mortality from cervical cancer, which declined more rapidly in the lower educational groups. There are large socioeconomic inequalities in preventable cancer mortality in Colombia, which underscore the need for intensifying prevention efforts. Reduction of cervical cancer can be achieved through reducing human papilloma virus infection, early detection and improved access to treatment of preneoplastic lesions. Reinforcing antitobacco measures may be particularly important to curb inequalities in cancer mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

National and subnational all-cause and cause-specific child mortality in China, 1996-2015: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

PubMed

He, Chunhua; Liu, Li; Chu, Yue; Perin, Jamie; Dai, Li; Li, Xiaohong; Miao, Lei; Kang, Leni; Li, Qi; Scherpbier, Robert; Guo, Sufang; Rudan, Igor; Song, Peige; Chan, Kit Yee; Guo, Yan; Black, Robert E; Wang, Yanping; Zhu, Jun

2017-02-01

China has achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce under-5 mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In this study, we estimated the national and subnational levels and causes of child mortality in China annually from 1996 to 2015 to draw implications for achievement of the SDGs for China and other low-income and middle-income countries. In this systematic analysis, we adjusted empirical data on levels and causes of child mortality collected in the China Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System to generate representative estimates at the national and subnational levels. In adjusting the data, we considered the sampling design and probability, applied smoothing techniques to produce stable trends, fitted livebirth and age-specific death estimates to natvional estimates produced by the UN for international comparison, and partitioned national estimates of infrequent causes produced by independent sources to the subnational level. Between 1996 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate in China declined from 50·8 per 1000 livebirths to 10·7 per 1000 livebirths, at an average annual rate of reduction of 8·2%. However, 181 600 children still died before their fifth birthday, with 93 400 (51·5%) deaths occurring in neonates. Great inequity exists in child mortality across regions and in urban versus rural areas. The leading causes of under-5 mortality in 2015 were congenital abnormalities (35 700 deaths, 95% uncertainty range [UR] 28 400-45 200), preterm birth complications (30 900 deaths, 24 200-40 800), and injuries (26 600 deaths, 21 000-33 400). Pneumonia contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the western region of China than in the eastern and central regions, and injury was a main cause of death in rural areas. Variations in cause-of-death composition by age were also examined. The contribution of preterm birth complications to mortality decreased after the neonatal period; congenital abnormalities remained an important cause of mortality throughout infancy, whereas the contribution of injuries to mortality increased after the first year of life. China has achieved a rapid reduction in child mortality in 1996-2015. The decline has been widespread across regions, urban and rural areas, age groups, and cause-of-death categories, but great disparities remain. The western region and rural areas and especially western rural areas should receive most attention in improving child survival through enhanced policy and programmes in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Continued investment is crucial in primary and secondary prevention of deaths due to congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, and injuries nationally, and of deaths due to pneumonia in western rural areas. The study also has implications for improving child survival and civil registration and vital statistics in other low-income and middle-income countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Severe road traffic injuries and youth: a 4-year analysis for the city of Belgrade.

PubMed

Bumbasirevic, Marko; Lesic, Aleksandar; Bumbasirevic, Vesna; Zagorac, Slavisa; Milosevic, Ivan; Simic, Marko; Markovic-Denic, Ljiljana

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe severe road traffic injuries (RTIs) in the population under 18 years in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia. We analysed both severe non-fatal and fatal RTIs in children and adolescents under 18 years old in the Belgrade area, during the period 2008-2011. Data sources were the official statistics of the Public Health Institute in Belgrade and forensic-medical records from two paediatric university hospitals and five university hospitals for adults. Using descriptive statistical methods, demographic characteristics, mechanism, type and time of injuries, surgical treatment procedures, injury severity scores (ISS), length of stay and outcome were evaluated. The admission and mortality rates were calculated. Among the total of 379 injured, 256 (67.5%) were male; the average age was 13.0 ± 4.7 (range: 0-18 years). The annual hospital admission rate of RTIs for both sexes decreased in average by 12.6% (95% CI = 9.3%-15.9%). The mean percentage of annual changes of mortality rates was 2.0 %; 95% CI = 1.3%-5.3% (5.7 per 100,000 in 2008, 5.6 in 2009, 4.7 in 2010 and 5.9 in 2011). The highest admission rates and mortality rates were for pedestrians, followed by passengers and cyclists. Accidents occurred most commonly on Monday (18.7%). Among children hospitalised for traffic injuries, 57.8% had head and neck trauma, 30.6% extremity fractures, 5% abdominal injuries, 4.2% chest and 2.4% multiple injuries. The average ISS was 22.4 (SD = 20.4), ranging from 1 to 75. Alcohol in blood was confirmed in 7.4% males and 3.3% females (p > 0.05). The average time of hospital stay was 8.8 days (SD = 16.7), ranging from 1 to 14. The increased rates require implementation of a well-defined national strategy in our country.

Equity and geography: the case of child mortality in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Bauze, Anna E; Tran, Linda N; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Firth, Sonja; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Hodge, Andrew; Lopez, Alan D

2012-01-01

Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.

Maternal and child mortality indicators across 187 countries of the world: converging or diverging.

PubMed

Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

2014-01-01

This study reassessed the progress achieved since 1990 in maternal and child mortality indicators to test whether the progress is converging or diverging across countries worldwide. The convergence process is examined using standard parametric and non-parametric econometric models of convergence. The results of absolute convergence estimates reveal that progress in maternal and child mortality indicators is diverging for the entire period of 1990-2010 [maternal mortality ratio (MMR) - β = .00033, p < .574; neonatal mortality rate (NNMR) - β = .04367, p < .000; post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) - β = .02677, p < .000; under-five mortality rate (U5MR) - β = .00828, p < .000)]. In the recent period, such divergence is replaced with convergence for MMR but diverged for all the child mortality indicators. The results of Kernel density estimate reveal considerable reduction in divergence of MMR for the recent period; however, the Kernel density distribution plots show more than one 'peak' which indicates the emergence of convergence clubs based on their mortality levels. For child mortality indicators, the Kernel estimates suggest that divergence is in progress across the countries worldwide but tended to converge for countries with low mortality levels. A mere progress in global averages of maternal and child mortality indicators among a global cross-section of countries does not warranty convergence unless there is a considerable reduction in variance, skewness and range of change.

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana.

PubMed

Mupara, Lucia U; Lubbe, Johanna C

2016-01-01

Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana.

Blindness and visual impairment in the Americas and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Muñoz, B; West, S K

2002-01-01

Aim: To summarise available data on the prevalence and causes of visual impairment and blindness in the Americas and the Caribbean. Methods: The published literature was searched in Medline and LILACS using the following key words: blindness, visual impairment, prevalence. Articles were reviewed, and the references of the articles were also searched for relevant articles, which were also reviewed. Results: Using the mortality in children under the age of 5 as an indicator, the overall prevalence of childhood blindness (in the under age 15 group) for the region was estimated at 0.45/1000, with the majority (67%) living in countries with mortality of children under age 5 above 30/1000 live births. Corneal opacities were more common in countries where the under 5 year mortality are above 30/1000 live births and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was an important cause in countries with intermediate death rates. For adults, overall blindness rates were not estimated because of the social, economic, and ethnic diversity in the region. The primary causes of visual loss in adults in the Americas were age related eye diseases, notably cataract and glaucoma in the African-American and Hispanic populations, and age related macular degeneration in the white population. Uncorrected refractive error was a significant cause of decreased vision across ages, ethnic groups, and countries. Conclusion: More data are needed on the magnitude and causes of visual loss for the Caribbean and Latin American countries. Rates of blindness and visual loss from available data within these countries are widely disparate. Prevention and control of avoidable blindness needs to be an ongoing focus in this region. PMID:11973241

World Inequality: Social and Economic Data for Selected Developing Countries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Social Education, 1998

1998-01-01

Presents a chart of socioeconomic data for 38 developing countries and the United States. Includes statistics on GNP per capita, percent of people living on less than one dollar a day, under-age-5 mortality rate, percent of population without access to safe water, and total adult-literacy rate. (DSK)

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Kingsley, Samantha L; Eliot, Melissa N; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R; Wellenius, Gregory A

2016-04-01

Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092-2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6-1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9-41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8-2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460-467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826.

Under 5 mortality rate and its contributors in Zhejiang Province of China from 2000 to 2009

PubMed Central

Huang, Xin-Wen; Yang, Ru-Lai

2013-01-01

Objective By analyzing the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) and its contributors in Zhejiang Province of China from 2000 to 2009, we tried to understand the trend of U5MR change in Zhejiang Province and thus propose strategies to reduce child mortality. Methods Thirty cities/counties/districts from Zhejiang Province were selected using stratified cluster sampling approach. Children under five years in these areas were enrolled as the subjects. The U5MR and its contributors were analyzed in terms of age, migration status of mothers, and other indicators using classic descriptive methods and Chi square test. Results The U5MR in Zhejiang Province showed a declining trend from 14.83‰ in 2000 to 9.49‰ in 2009. In 2009, the U5MR was significantly higher in the rural areas than in the urban areas (9.14‰ vs.6.50‰, P<0.01) and among floating populations than among local residents (12.12‰ vs. 6.42‰, P<0.01). Preterm birth/low birth weight was the leading cause of U5MR in 2009. More specifically, preterm birth/low birth weight, congenital heart disease, and birth asphyxia were the top three causes of deaths among infants (<1 year), while drowning, traffic accidents, and accidental falls were the leading causes of deaths among children (1-4 years). Conclusion The U5MR in Zhejiang Province in 2009 differed between urban areas and rural areas and between floating populations and local residents. The main causes of death differ between infants and young children. Prevention of preterm birth/low birth weight and congenital anomalies will reduce infant death, while the main intervention for young children is to avoid accidental injuries. PMID:26835282

Tobacco control and the reduction in smoking-related premature deaths in the United States, 1964-2012.

PubMed

Holford, Theodore R; Meza, Rafael; Warner, Kenneth E; Meernik, Clare; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Levy, David T

2014-01-08

January 2014 marks the 50th anniversary of the first surgeon general's report on smoking and health. This seminal document inspired efforts by governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to reduce the toll of cigarette smoking through reduced initiation and increased cessation. To model reductions in smoking-related mortality associated with implementation of tobacco control since 1964. Smoking histories for individual birth cohorts that actually occurred and under likely scenarios had tobacco control never emerged were estimated. National mortality rates and mortality rate ratio estimates from analytical studies of the effect of smoking on mortality yielded death rates by smoking status. Actual smoking-related mortality from 1964 through 2012 was compared with estimated mortality under no tobacco control that included a likely scenario (primary counterfactual) and upper and lower bounds that would capture plausible alternatives. National Health Interview Surveys yielded cigarette smoking histories for the US adult population in 1964-2012. Number of premature deaths avoided and years of life saved were primary outcomes. Change in life expectancy at age 40 years associated with change in cigarette smoking exposure constituted another measure of overall health outcomes. In 1964-2012, an estimated 17.7 million deaths were related to smoking, an estimated 8.0 million (credible range [CR], 7.4-8.3 million, for the lower and upper tobacco control counterfactuals, respectively) fewer premature smoking-related deaths than what would have occurred under the alternatives and thus associated with tobacco control (5.3 million [CR, 4.8-5.5 million] men and 2.7 million [CR, 2.5-2.7 million] women). This resulted in an estimated 157 million years (CR, 139-165 million) of life saved, a mean of 19.6 years for each beneficiary (111 million [CR, 97-117 million] for men, 46 million [CR, 42-48 million] for women). During this time, estimated life expectancy at age 40 years increased 7.8 years for men and 5.4 years for women, of which tobacco control is associated with 2.3 years (CR, 1.8-2.5) (30% [CR, 23%-32%]) of the increase for men and 1.6 years (CR, 1.4-1.7) (29% [CR, 25%-32%]) for women. Tobacco control was estimated to be associated with avoidance of 8 million premature deaths and an estimated extended mean life span of 19 to 20 years. Although tobacco control represents an important public health achievement, efforts must continue to reduce the effect of smoking on the nation's death toll.

Trends and social differentials in child mortality in Rwanda 1990–2010: results from three demographic and health surveys

PubMed Central

Musafili, Aimable; Essén, Birgitta; Baribwira, Cyprien; Binagwaho, Agnes; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2015-01-01

Background Rwanda has embarked on ambitious programmes to provide equitable health services and reduce mortality in childhood. Evidence from other countries indicates that advances in child survival often have come at the expense of increasing inequity. Our aims were to analyse trends and social differentials in mortality before the age of 5 years in Rwanda from 1990 to 2010. Methods We performed secondary analyses of data from three Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in Rwanda. These surveys included 34 790 children born between 1990 and 2010 to women aged 15–49 years. The main outcome measures were neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) over time, and in relation to mother's educational level, urban or rural residence and household wealth. Generalised linear mixed effects models and a mixed effects Cox model (frailty model) were used, with adjustments for confounders and cluster sampling method. Results Mortality rates in Rwanda peaked in 1994 at the time of the genocide (NMR 60/1000 live births, 95% CI 51 to 65; U5MR 238/1000 live births, 95% CI 226 to 251). The 1990s and the first half of the 2000s were characterised by a marked rural/urban divide and inequity in child survival between maternal groups with different levels of education. Towards the end of the study period (2005–2010) NMR had been reduced to 26/1000 (95% CI 23 to 29) and U5MR to 65/1000 (95% CI 61 to 70), with little or no difference between urban and rural areas, and household wealth groups, while children of women with no education still had significantly higher U5MR. Conclusions Recent reductions in child mortality in Rwanda have concurred with improved social equity in child survival. Current challenges include the prevention of newborn deaths. PMID:25870163

Determinants of childhood mortality in slums of Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

D'souza, R M; Bryant, J H

1999-01-01

Pakistan has an infant mortality rate (IMR) of 90.5/1000 live births, and the country's child mortality level of 117.5 is worse than in other South Asian countries. Rapid population growth combined with rural-to-urban migration has led to the creation of urban slums in which morbidity levels are usually higher than in rural populations. A study was conducted in January 1993 in 6 slums of Karachi where the Aga Khan University has operated primary health care programs since 1985. Researchers recorded the deaths of 347 children under age 5 years old due to diarrhea and acute respiratory infections (ARI) during 1989-93. 235 mothers of these children were interviewed. The following are discussed as risk factors for under-5 child mortality: the use of traditional healers, poor nutritional status, incomplete or no immunization, the quick change of healers, inappropriate child care arrangements, mother's literacy, who decides about outside treatment, short birth interval, bottle feeding, and nuclear family structure. Maternal autonomy, appropriate health-seeking behavior, and child-rearing processes identified in the study point to the need for intervention strategies which go beyond the usual primary health care initiatives and involve communities in developing social support systems for mothers.

Socioeconomic and geographical disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Dettrick, Zoe; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2014-05-01

As a part of the Millennium Development Goals, India seeks to substantially reduce its burden of childhood mortality. The success or failure of this goal may depend on outcomes within India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. This study examines the level of disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality across a range of equity markers within the state. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using five datasets, from three available sources: sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Disparities were evaluated via comparisons of mortality rates by rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and districts. While Uttar Pradesh has experienced declines in both rates of under-five (162-108 per 1,000 live births) and neonatal (76-49 per 1,000 live births) mortality, the rate of decline has been slow (averaging 2 % per annum). Mortality trends in rural and urban areas are showing signs of convergence, largely due to the much slower rate of change in urban areas. While the gap between rich and poor households has decreased in both urban and rural areas, trends suggest that differences in mortality will remain. Caste-related disparities remain high and show no signs of diminishing. Of concern are also the signs of stagnation in mortality amongst groups with greater ability to access services, such as the urban middle class. Notwithstanding the slow but steady reduction of absolute levels of childhood mortality within Uttar Pradesh, the distribution of the mortality by sub-state populations remains unequal. Future progress may require significant investment in quality of care provided to all sections of the community.

The impact of primary healthcare in reducing inequalities in child health outcomes, Bogotá – Colombia: an ecological analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Colombia is one of the countries with the widest levels of socioeconomic and health inequalities. Bogotá, its capital, faces serious problems of poverty, social disparities and access to health services. A Primary Health Care (PHC) strategy was implemented in 2004 to improve health care and to address the social determinants of such inequalities. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of the PHC strategy to reducing inequalities in child health outcomes in Bogotá. Methods An ecological analysis with localities as the unit of analysis was carried out. The variable used to capture the socioeconomic status and living standards was the Quality of Life Index (QLI). Concentration curves and concentration indices for four child health outcomes (infant mortality rate (IMR), under-5 mortality rate, prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under-5, and vaccination coverage for diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus) were calculated to measure socioeconomic inequality. Two periods were used to describe possible changes in the magnitude of the inequalities related with the PHC implementation (2003 year before - 2007 year after implementation). The contribution of the PHC intervention was computed by a decomposition analysis carried out on data from 2007. Results In both 2003 and 2007, concentration curves and indexes of IMR, under-5 mortality rate and acute malnutrition showed inequalities to the disadvantage of localities with lower QLI. Diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) vaccinations were more prevalent among localities with higher QLI in 2003 but were higher in localities with lower QLI in 2007. The variation of the concentration index between 2003 and 2007 indicated reductions in inequality for all of the indicators in the period after the PHC implementation. In 2007, PHC was associated with a reduction in the effect of the inequality that affected disadvantaged localities in under-5 mortality (24%), IMR (19%) and acute malnutrition (7%). PHC also contributed approximately 20% to inequality in DPT coverage, favoring the poorer localities. Conclusion The PHC strategy developed in Bogotá appears to be contributing to reductions of the inequality associated with socioeconomic and living conditions in child health outcomes. PMID:23145972

The impact of primary healthcare in reducing inequalities in child health outcomes, Bogotá-Colombia: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Mosquera, Paola A; Hernández, Jinneth; Vega, Román; Martínez, Jorge; Labonte, Ronald; Sanders, David; San Sebastián, Miguel

2012-11-13

Colombia is one of the countries with the widest levels of socioeconomic and health inequalities. Bogotá, its capital, faces serious problems of poverty, social disparities and access to health services. A Primary Health Care (PHC) strategy was implemented in 2004 to improve health care and to address the social determinants of such inequalities. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of the PHC strategy to reducing inequalities in child health outcomes in Bogotá. An ecological analysis with localities as the unit of analysis was carried out. The variable used to capture the socioeconomic status and living standards was the Quality of Life Index (QLI). Concentration curves and concentration indices for four child health outcomes (infant mortality rate (IMR), under-5 mortality rate, prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under-5, and vaccination coverage for diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus) were calculated to measure socioeconomic inequality. Two periods were used to describe possible changes in the magnitude of the inequalities related with the PHC implementation (2003 year before - 2007 year after implementation). The contribution of the PHC intervention was computed by a decomposition analysis carried out on data from 2007. In both 2003 and 2007, concentration curves and indexes of IMR, under-5 mortality rate and acute malnutrition showed inequalities to the disadvantage of localities with lower QLI. Diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) vaccinations were more prevalent among localities with higher QLI in 2003 but were higher in localities with lower QLI in 2007. The variation of the concentration index between 2003 and 2007 indicated reductions in inequality for all of the indicators in the period after the PHC implementation. In 2007, PHC was associated with a reduction in the effect of the inequality that affected disadvantaged localities in under-5 mortality (24%), IMR (19%) and acute malnutrition (7%). PHC also contributed approximately 20% to inequality in DPT coverage, favoring the poorer localities. The PHC strategy developed in Bogotá appears to be contributing to reductions of the inequality associated with socioeconomic and living conditions in child health outcomes.

Causes of death and infant mortality rates among full-term births in the United States between 2010 and 2012: An observational study.

PubMed

Bairoliya, Neha; Fink, Günther

2018-03-01

While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births. Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states. More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction.

What explains the distribution of doctors and nurses in different countries, and does it matter for health outcomes?

PubMed

Carr-Hill, Roy; Currie, Elizabeth

2013-11-01

To re-examine the form of the relationships between the global distribution of health professionals (physicians and nurses), gross national product per capita, female literacy, and infant and under-5 mortality rates reported in three papers by Robinson and Wharrad using more recent data. The secondary aim was to explore prior assumptions about the quality of the data, the homogeneity of the sample, and the form of the relationship. The analyses by Robinson and Wharrad did not take account of differences between developing and developed countries. Furthermore, the intervening years have seen changes in healthcare professional roles and their global distribution. Re-examination of these relationships is therefore timely. A secondary analysis of routinely collected data from international databases. A database was constructed from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations and World Bank sources on 177 countries for around 2005. Regression analyses were performed first with number of physicians and of nurses per 1000 population as dependent variables and gross national product per capita, female literacy rates, and the Gini coefficient as independent variables; and second with all those variables as independent variables and infant mortality, under-5 mortality rates, and maternal mortality rates as dependent variables. There were clear and interesting differences between richer (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries and developing countries in the coefficients and in the power of the equations. The importance of understanding the implications of carrying out cross-country analysis and the urgent need for standardization of definitions in datasets are emphasized. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Oleson, Keith W; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D

2018-02-01

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Entrenched geographical and socioeconomic disparities in child mortality: trends in absolute and relative inequalities in Cambodia.

PubMed

Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Durham, Jo; Hodge, Andrew

2014-01-01

Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country's child mortality inequalities. Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth. Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed. Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key supply and demand side barriers to accessing maternal and child health care and on the social determinants of health will be essential in narrowing inequalities.

Are urban children really healthier? Evidence from 47 developing countries.

PubMed

Van de Poel, Ellen; O'Donnell, Owen; Van Doorslaer, Eddy

2007-11-01

On average, child health outcomes are better in urban than in rural areas of developing countries. Understanding the nature and the causes of this rural-urban disparity is essential in contemplating the health consequences of the rapid urbanization taking place throughout the developing world and in targeting resources appropriately to raise population health. Using micro-data on child health taken from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys for 47 developing countries, the purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we document the magnitude of rural-urban disparities in child nutritional status and under-5 mortality across all 47 developing countries. Second, we adjust these disparities for differences in population characteristics across urban and rural settings. Third, we examine rural-urban differences in the degree of socioeconomic inequality in these health outcomes. The results demonstrate that there are considerable rural-urban differences in mean child health outcomes in the entire developing world. The rural-urban gap in stunting does not entirely mirror the gap in under-5 mortality. The most striking difference between the two is in the Latin American and Caribbean region, where the gap in growth stunting is more than 1.5 times higher than that in mortality. On average, the rural-urban risk ratios of stunting and under-5 mortality fall by, respectively, 53% and 59% after controlling for household wealth. Controlling thereafter for socio-demographic factors reduces the risk ratios by another 22% and 25%. We confirm earlier findings of higher socioeconomic inequality in stunting in urban areas and demonstrate that this also holds for under-5 mortality. In a considerable number of countries, the urban poor actually have higher rates of stunting and mortality than their rural counterparts. The findings imply that there is a need for programs that target the urban poor, and that this is becoming more necessary as the size of the urban population grows.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring child mortality through community health worker reporting of births and deaths in Malawi: validation against a household mortality survey.

PubMed

Amouzou, Agbessi; Banda, Benjamin; Kachaka, Willie; Joos, Olga; Kanyuka, Mercy; Hill, Kenneth; Bryce, Jennifer

2014-01-01

The rate of decline in child mortality is too slow in most African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Effective strategies to monitor child mortality are needed where accurate vital registration data are lacking to help governments assess and report on progress in child survival. We present results from a test of a mortality monitoring approach based on recording of births and deaths by specially trained community health workers (CHWs) in Malawi. Government-employed community health workers in Malawi are responsible for maintaining a Village Health Register, in which they record births and deaths that occur in their catchment area. We expanded on this system to provide additional training, supervision and incentives. We tested the equivalence between child mortality rates obtained from data on births and deaths collected by 160 randomly-selected and trained CHWs over twenty months in two districts to those computed through a standard household mortality survey. CHW reports produced an under-five mortality rate that was 84% (95%CI: [0.71,1.00]) of the household survey mortality rate and statistically equivalent to it. However, CHW data consistently underestimated under-five mortality, with levels of under-estimation increasing over time. Under-five deaths were more likely to be missed than births. Neonatal and infant deaths were more likely to be missed than older deaths. This first test of the accuracy and completeness of vital events data reported by CHWs in Malawi as a strategy for monitoring child mortality shows promising results but underestimated child mortality and was not stable over the four periods assessed. Given the Malawi government's commitment to strengthen its vital registration system, we are working with the Ministry of Health to implement a revised version of the approach that provides increased support to CHWs.

An ecologic study of prostate-specific antigen screening and prostate cancer mortality in nine geographic areas of the United States.

PubMed

Shaw, Pamela A; Etzioni, Ruth; Zeliadt, Steven B; Mariotto, Angela; Karnofski, Kent; Penson, David F; Weiss, Noel S; Feuer, Eric J

2004-12-01

Ecologic studies of cancer screening examine cancer mortality rates in relation to use of population screening. These studies can be confounded by treatment patterns or influenced by choice of outcome and time horizon. Interpretation can be complicated by uncertainty about when mortality differences might be expected. The authors examined these issues in an ecologic analysis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and prostate cancer mortality across nine cancer registries in the United States. Results suggested a weak trend for areas with greater PSA screening rates to have greater declines in prostate cancer mortality; however, the magnitude of this trend varied considerably with the time horizon and outcome measure. A computer model was used to determine whether divergence of mortality declines would be expected under an assumption of a clinically significant survival benefit due to screening. Given a mean lead time of 5 years, the model projected that differences in mortality between high- and low-use areas should be apparent by 1999 in the absence of other factors affecting mortality. The authors concluded that modest differences in PSA screening rates across areas, together with additional sources of variation, could have produced a negative ecologic result. Ecologic analyses of the effectiveness of PSA testing should be interpreted with caution.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

PubMed

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

PubMed Central

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-01-01

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates. PMID:27929405

Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture: findings from a nationally representative sample.

PubMed

Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

2015-01-01

Background. India accounts for 24% to all under-five mortality in the world. Residence in rural area, poverty and low levels of mother's education are known confounders of under-five mortality. Since two-thirds of India's population lives in rural areas, mothers employed in agriculture present a particularly vulnerable population in the Indian context and it is imperative that concerns of this sizeable population are addressed in order to achieve MDG4 targets of reducing U5MR to fewer than 41 per 1,000 by 2015. This study was conducted to examine factors associated with under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture. Methods. Data was retrieved from National Family Household Survey-3 in India (2008). The study population is comprised of a national representative sample of single children aged 0 to 59 months and born to mothers aged 15 to 49 years employed in agriculture from all 29 states of India. Univariate and Multivariate Cox PH regression analysis was used to analyse the Hazard Rates of mortality. The predictive power of child mortality among mothers employed in agriculture was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. An increase in mothers' ages corresponds with a decrease in child mortality. Breastfeeding reduces child mortality by 70% (HR 0.30, 0.25-0.35, p = 0.001). Standard of Living reduces child mortality by 32% with high standard of living (HR 0.68, 0.52-0.89, 0.001) in comparison to low standard of living. Prenatal care (HR 0.40, 0.34-0.48, p = 0.001) and breastfeeding health nutrition education (HR 0.45, 0.31-0.66, p = 0.001) are associated significant factors for child mortality. Birth Order five is a risk factor for mortality (HR 1.49, 1.05-2.10, p = 0.04) in comparison to Birth Order one among women engaged in agriculture while the household size (6-10 members and ≥ 11 members) is significant in reducing child mortality in comparison to ≤5 members in the house. Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture in India discriminated well between death and survival (Area Under ROC was 0.75, 95% CI [0.73-0.77]) indicating that the model is good for appropriate prediction of child mortality. Conclusion. In a nationally representative sample of households in India, mother's age, breastfeeding, standard of living, prenatal care and breastfeeding health nutrition education are associated with reduction in child mortality.

The Progress of Nations: The Nations of the World Ranked Acording to Their Achievements in Health, Nutrition, Education, Family Planning, and Progress for Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamson, Peter, Ed.

This report documents the progress made in developing and developed nations to improve health, nutrition, education, family planning, and the condition of women over the last 40 years. It presents tables that rank the world's nations and regions on: (1) the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age; (2) the percent of children under 5 years…

A laboratory evaluation of tagging-related mortality and tag loss in juvenile humpback chub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David L.; Persons, William R.; Young, Kirk; Stone, Dennis M.; Van Haverbeke, Randy; Knight, William R.

2015-01-01

We quantified tag retention, survival, and growth in juvenile, captive-reared Humpback Chub Gila cypha marked with three different tag types: (1) Biomark 12.5-mm, 134.2-kHz, full duplex PIT tags injected into the body cavity with a 12-gauge needle; (2) Biomark 8.4-mm, 134.2-kHz, full duplex PIT tags injected with a 16-gauge needle; and (3) Northwest Marine Technology visible implant elastomer (VIE) tags injected under the skin with a 29-gauge needle. Estimates of tag loss, tagging-induced mortality, and growth were evaluated for 60 d with each tag type for four different size-groups of fish: 40–49 mm, 50–59 mm, 60–69 mm, and 70–79 mm TL. Total length was a significant predictor of the probability of PIT tag retention and mortality for both 8-mm and 12-mm PIT tags, and the smallest fish had the highest rates of tag loss (12.5–30.0%) and mortality (7.5–20.0%). Humpback Chub of sizes 40–49 mm TL and tagged with VIE tags had no mortality but did have a 17.5% tag loss. Growth rates of all tagged fish were similar to controls. Our data indicate Humpback Chub can be effectively tagged using either 8-mm or 12-mm PIT tags with little tag loss or mortality at sizes as low as 65 mm TL.

Underlying causes of the emerging nonmetropolitan mortality penalty.

PubMed

Cossman, Jeralynn S; James, Wesley L; Cosby, Arthur G; Cossman, Ronald E

2010-08-01

The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty results in an estimated 40 201 excessive US deaths per year, deaths that would not occur if nonmetropolitan and metropolitan residents died at the same rate. We explored the underlying causes of the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty by examining variation in cause of death. Declines in heart disease and cancer death rates in metropolitan areas drive the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. Future work should explore why the top causes of death are higher in nonmetropolitan areas than they are in metropolitan areas.

Underlying Causes of the Emerging Nonmetropolitan Mortality Penalty

PubMed Central

James, Wesley L.; Cosby, Arthur G.; Cossman, Ronald E.

2010-01-01

The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty results in an estimated 40 201 excessive US deaths per year, deaths that would not occur if nonmetropolitan and metropolitan residents died at the same rate. We explored the underlying causes of the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty by examining variation in cause of death. Declines in heart disease and cancer death rates in metropolitan areas drive the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. Future work should explore why the top causes of death are higher in nonmetropolitan areas than they are in metropolitan areas. PMID:20558803

Tanzania: Background and Current Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-08

movement of refugees. Societal violence against women and persons with albinism and women persisted. Female genital mutilation (FGM), especially of...Zanzibar /islands over 99% Muslim Literacy: Male, 77.5%; Female , 66.2% (2003) Under-5 Mortality: 165 deaths/1,000 live births HIV/AIDS adult...infection rate: 6.2% (2007) Life Expectancy, years at birth: Male, 50.5 Female , 53.5 (2009 est.) Sources: CIA World Factbook 2010. Tanzania

Tanzania: Background and Current Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-23

persons with albinism and women persisted. Female genital mutilation (FGM), especially of young girls, continued to be practiced. Trafficking in...35%; Zanzibar /islands over 99% Muslim Literacy: Male, 77.5%; Female , 66.2% (2003) Under-5 Mortality: 165 deaths/1,000 live births HIV/AIDS adult...infection rate: 6.2% (2007) Life Expectancy, years at birth: Male, 50.5 Female , 53.5 (2009 est.) Sources: CIA World Factbook 2010. Tanzania

Evaluation of Conidia-Dust Formulation of the Entomopathogenic Fungus, Metarhizium anisopliae to Biocontrol the Brown-Banded Cockroach, Supella longipalpa F.

PubMed Central

Sharififard, Mona; Mossadegh, Mohammad Saeed; Vazirianzadeh, Babak; Latifi, Seyed Mahmood

2014-01-01

Background: The brown-banded cockroach Supella longipalpa (F.) as a mechanical vector of pathogens and source of allergens has recently become widespread in the city of Ahvaz, southwestern Iran. Objectives: This research was done to evaluate the efficacy of a dust-formulation of Metarhizium anisopliae isolate IRAN 437C, as a common entomopathogenous fungus, against S. longipalpa. Materials and Methods: Conidia dust-formulations of M. anisopliae were prepared in proportions of 1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% with bad wheat flour as the carrier. Cockroaches were exposed to surfaces treated with 1.5 mg/cm2 of the formulations under laboratory and semi-field conditions. Results: Cockroach mortality rates increased and survival times (ST50) decreased with an increased proportion of conidia from 1% to 100% but records taken for mortality and survival time from proportions of 25%, 50% and 100% were not significantly different. The mortality rates reached 100% and 90-100% in adults and nymphs, respectively on the seventh day. The lowest ST50 was related to the proportion of 100% (3 days). Probit analysis indicated LD50 and LD90 values of 1.7 × 106 and 1.7 × 107 conidia/cm2 for adults and these values changed to 4.5 × 106 and 2.9 × 107 for third and fourth instar nymphs at three days post exposure. Proportion of 25% caused mortality rates of 87%, 81% and 73% in adult, adult & nymph and nymph populations, respectively at four days after exposure under room conditions. Conclusions: Conidia dust-formulation of M. anospliae isolate IRAN 437C could present a promising alternative to control the brown-banded cockroach. PMID:25371804

The Potential of Bee-Generated Carbon Dioxide for Control of Varroa Mite (Mesostigmata: Varroidae) in Indoor Overwintering Honey bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Colonies.

PubMed

Bahreini, Rassol; Currie, Robert W

2015-10-01

The objective of this study was to manipulate ventilation rate to characterize interactions between stocks of honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) and ventilation setting on varroa mite (Varroa destructor Anderson and Trueman) mortality in honey bee colonies kept indoors over winter. The first experiment used colonies established from stock selected locally for wintering performance under exposure to varroa (n = 6) and unselected bees (n = 6) to assess mite and bee mortality and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2) in the bee cluster when kept under a simulated winter condition at 5°C. The second experiment, used colonies from selected bees (n = 10) and unselected bees (n = 12) that were exposed to either standard ventilation (14.4 liter/min per hive) or restricted ventilation (0.24 liter/min per hive, in a Plexiglas ventilation chamber) during a 16-d treatment period to assess the influence of restricted air flow on winter mortality rates of varroa mites and honey bees. Experiment 2 was repeated in early, mid-, and late winter. The first experiment showed that under unrestricted ventilation with CO2 concentrations averaging <2% there was no correlation between CO2 and varroa mite mortality when colonies were placed under low temperature. CO2 was negatively correlated with O2 in the bee cluster in both experiments. When ventilation was restricted, mean CO2 level (3.82 ± 0.31%, range 0.43-8.44%) increased by 200% relative to standard ventilation (1.29 ± 0.31%; range 0.09-5.26%) within the 16-d treatment period. The overall mite mortality rates and the reduction in mean abundance of varroa mite over time was greater under restricted ventilation (37 ± 4.2%) than under standard ventilation (23 ± 4.2%) but not affected by stock of bees during the treatment period. Selected bees showed overall greater mite mortality relative to unselected bees in both experiments. Restricting ventilation increased mite mortality, but did not affect worker bee mortality relative to that for colonies under standard ventilation. Restricted ventilation did not affect the overall level of Nosema compared with the control. However, there was an interaction between stock, season, and time of the trial. Unselected stock showed an increase in Nosema over time in the late winter trial that did not occur in the selected stock. In conclusion, these findings suggested that restricted ventilation has potential to suppress varroa mite in overwintering honey bee colonies via a low-cost and environmentally friendly measure. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating cause of adult (15+ years) death using InterVA-4 in a rural district of southern Ghana.

PubMed

Awini, Elizabeth; Sarpong, Doris; Adjei, Alexander; Manyeh, Alfred Kwesi; Amu, Alberta; Akweongo, Patricia; Adongo, Philip; Kukula, Vida; Odonkor, Gabriel; Narh, Solomon; Gyapong, Margaret

2014-01-01

Data needed to estimate causes of death and the pattern of these deaths are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. Such data are very important for targeting, monitoring, and evaluating health interventions. To estimate the mortality rate and determine causes of death among adults (aged 15 years and older) in a rural district of southern Ghana, using the InterVA-4 model. Data used were generated from verbal autopsies conducted for registered adult members of the Dodowa Health and Demographic Surveillance System who died between 2006 and 2010. The InterVA-4 model was used to assign the cause of death. Overall, the mortality rate for the period under review was 7.5/1,000 person-years (py) for the general population and 10.4/1,000 py for those aged 15 and older. The leading cause of death was communicable diseases (CDs), with a malaria-specific mortality rate of 1.06/1,000 py. Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB)-specific mortality rate was the next highest (1.01/1,000 py). HIV/AIDS attributed deaths were lower among males than females. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed to 28.3% of the deaths with cause-specific mortality rate of 2.93/1,000 py. Stroke topped the list with cause-specific mortality rate of 0.69/1,000 py. As expected, young males (15-49 years) contributed to more road traffic accident (RTA) deaths; they had a lower RTA cause-specific mortality rate than older males (50-64 years). Data indicate that CDs (e.g. malaria and TB) remain the major cause of death with NCDs (e.g. stroke) following closely behind. Verbal autopsy data can provide the causes of mortality in poorly resourced settings where access to timely and accurate data is scarce.

GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

PubMed

González Del Castillo, Juan; Escobar-Curbelo, Luis; Martínez-Ortíz de Zárate, Mikel; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; García-Lamberechts, Jorge; Moreno-Cuervo, Álvaro; Fernández, Cristina; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier

2017-06-01

To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P<0.001) for the GYM score (Glasgow <15; tachYpnea>20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and P<0.001, respectively). The GYM score showed good calibration after bootstrap correction, with an area under the curve of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.605-0.815). The GYM score showed better capacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

Significantly Reduced Health Burden from Ambient Air Pollution in the United States under Emission Reductions from 1990 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; West, J. J.; Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Roselle, S. J.; Bash, J. O.; Pleim, J. E.; Gan, C. M.; Wong, D. C.; Tong, D.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has listed air pollution as the fourth-ranking global mortality risk factor. Few studies have attempted to understand how these burdens change through time, especially in the United States (US). Here we aim to estimate air pollution-related mortality in the continental US for each year from 1990 to 2016, to understand the trend over this time period. We also analyze the relative contributions of changes in air pollutant concentrations, population, and baseline mortality to the overall trend and to the inter-annual variability in mortality estimates. To achieve this goal, we use a 21-year model simulation of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations from 1990 to 2010, with grid resolution of 36km×36km. We will also use two additional datasets informed by satellite observations: one from the North American Chemical Reanalysis project, which uses OMI NO2 and MODIS AOD observations for data assimilation to constrain ozone and PM2.5 between 2006-2016, and the other from satellite-derived estimates of ground-level PM2.5 using satellite AOD combined with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model between 1998-2015. For the 21-year simulation, we find that the PM2.5-related mortality burden from ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and stroke, has steadily decreased, with a reduction of 51% from 1990 to 2010. The PM2.5 -related mortality burden would have decreased only by 27% if the PM2.5 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level, due to decreases in baseline mortality rates for major diseases affected by PM2.5. The O3 mortality burden has smaller inter-annual variability than the PM2.5-related burden from 1990 to 2010, but the variability for the concentration-change only mortality burden is higher for O3 than for PM2.5. The O3-related mortality burden increased by 12% from 1990 to 2010, despite ozone decreases, mainly due to increases in the baseline mortality rates and population. The O3-related mortality burden would have increased by 61% if the O3 concentration had stayed at the 1990 level. Our preliminary results suggest that air quality improvements have significantly reduced the health burden over the past two decades.

State of newborn health in India.

PubMed

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-12-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural-urban, poor-rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality.

State of newborn health in India

PubMed Central

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-01-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural–urban, poor–rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality. PMID:27924104

Autonomic nervous system activity as risk predictor in the medical emergency department: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Eick, Christian; Rizas, Konstantinos D; Meyer-Zürn, Christine S; Groga-Bada, Patrick; Hamm, Wolfgang; Kreth, Florian; Overkamp, Dietrich; Weyrich, Peter; Gawaz, Meinrad; Bauer, Axel

2015-05-01

To evaluate heart rate deceleration capacity, an electrocardiogram-based marker of autonomic nervous system activity, as risk predictor in a medical emergency department and to test its incremental predictive value to the modified early warning score. Prospective cohort study. Medical emergency department of a large university hospital. Five thousand seven hundred thirty consecutive patients of either sex in sinus rhythm, who were admitted to the medical emergency department of the University of Tübingen, Germany, between November 2010 and March 2012. None. Deceleration capacity of heart rate was calculated within the first minutes after emergency department admission. The modified early warning score was assessed from respiratory rate, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body temperature, and level of consciousness as previously described. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality; secondary endpoints included transfer to the ICU as well as 30-day and 180-day mortality. One hundred forty-two patients (2.5%) reached the primary endpoint. Deceleration capacity was highly significantly lower in nonsurvivors than survivors (2.9 ± 2.1 ms vs 5.6 ± 2.9 ms; p < 0.001) and yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.780 (95% CI, 0.745-0.813). The modified early warning score model yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.706 (0.667-0.750). Implementing deceleration capacity into the modified early warning score model led to a highly significant increase of the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve to 0.804 (0.770-0.835; p < 0.001 for difference). Deceleration capacity was also a highly significant predictor of 30-day and 180-day mortality as well as transfer to the ICU. Deceleration capacity is a strong and independent predictor of short-term mortality among patients admitted to a medical emergency department.

Epidemiology of pertussis in Italy: disease trends over the last century.

PubMed

Gonfiantini, M V; Carloni, E; Gesualdo, F; Pandolfi, E; Agricola, E; Rizzuto, E; Iannazzo, S; Ciofi Degli Atti, M L; Villani, A; Tozzi, A E

2014-10-09

We reviewed the epidemiology of pertussis in Italy over the last 125 years to identify disease trends and factors that could have influenced these trends. We described mortality rates (1888-2012), case fatality rates (1925-2012), cumulative incidence rates (1925-2013) and age-specific incidence rates (1974-2013). We compared data from routine surveillance with data from a paediatric sentinel surveillance system to estimate under-notification. Pertussis mortality decreased from 42.5 per 100,000 population in 1890 to no reported pertussis-related death after 2002. Incidence decreased from 86.3 per 100,000 in 1927 to 1 per 100,000 after 2008. Vaccine coverage increased from 32.8% in 1993 to about 96% after 2006. As for under-notification, mean sentinel/routine surveillance incidence ratio increased with age (from 1.8 in <1 year-olds to 12.9 in 10-14 year-olds). Pertussis mortality decreased before the introduction of immunisation. Incidence has decreased only after the introduction of pertussis vaccine and in particular after the achievement of a high immunisation coverage with acellular vaccines. Routine surveillance does not show an increase in cumulative incidence nor in ≥ 15 year-olds as reported by other countries. Underrecognition because of atypical presentation and the infrequent use of laboratory tests may be responsible for under-notification, and therefore affect incidence reports and management of immunisation programmes.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Short-Term Effect of Coarse Particles on Daily Mortality Rate in A Tropical City, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Weng, Yi-Hao; Chiu, Ya-Wen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2015-01-01

Many studies examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between exposure to levels of coarse particles (PM(2.5-10)) and daily mortality rate is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data and findings are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether an association exists between PM(2.5-10) levels and rate of daily mortality in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period 2006-2008. The relative risk (RR) of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model without adjustment for other pollutants, PM(2.5-10) exposure levels showed significant correlation with total mortality rate both on warm and cool days, with an interquartile range increase associated with a 14% (95% CI = 5-23%) and 12% (95% CI = 5-20%) rise in number of total deaths, respectively. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5-10) exerted significant influence on total mortality frequency after inclusion of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) on warm days. On cool days, PM(2.5-10) induced significant elevation in total mortality rate when SO(2) or ozone (O(3)) was added in the regression model. There was no apparent indication of an association between PM(2.5-10) exposure and deaths attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study provided evidence of correlation between short-term exposure to PM(2.5-10) and increased risk of death for all causes.

An examination of the maternal social determinants influencing under-5 mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey.

PubMed

Blackstone, Sarah R; Nwaozuru, Ucheoma; Iwelunmor, Juliet

2017-06-01

Nigeria is the second largest contributor to child (under-5) mortality in the world, with an average of 128 child deaths per 1000 live births, and is not on track to meet the Millennium Development Goals of reducing childhood mortality rates to 64 per 1000. Data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) report were analysed to explore the relationship between structural and intermediary maternal characteristics and likelihood of childhood mortality. Binary logistic regressions for the first three reported births were conducted with childhood mortality (e.g. death before 59 months of age) as a dependent variable. Maternal characteristics investigated included age, education, region, antenatal care, and breastfeeding. Significant factors for birth 1 included region of residence, breastfeeding, literacy, wealth, number of children, and antenatal care. For second birth, not breastfeeding and attending antenatal care with a nurse were negatively associated with survival. For third birth, wealth and number of children were positively associated with survival. The results point to some maternal characteristics that may be influential in childhood mortality. However, community and systems level factors should be accounted for in interventions, as maternal characteristics do not offer a full explanation for why children are dying so young in Nigeria.

Mortality level and predictors in a rural Ethiopian population: community based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Weldearegawi, Berhe; Spigt, Mark; Berhane, Yemane; Dinant, Geertjan

2014-01-01

Over the last fifty years the world has seen enormous decline in mortality rates. However, in low-income countries, where vital registration systems are absent, mortality statistics are not easily available. The recent economic growth of Ethiopia and the parallel large scale healthcare investments make investigating mortality figures worthwhile. Longitudinal health and demographic surveillance data collected from September 11, 2009 to September 10, 2012 were analysed. We computed incidence of mortality, overall and stratified by background variables. Poisson regression was used to test for a linear trend in the standardized mortality rates. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify predictors of mortality. Households located at <2300 meter and ≥ 2300 meter altitude were defined to be midland and highland, respectively. An open cohort, with a baseline population of 66,438 individuals, was followed for three years to generate 194,083 person-years of observation. The crude mortality rate was 4.04 (95% CI: 3.77, 4.34) per 1,000 person-years. During the follow-up period, incidence of mortality significantly declined among under five (P<0.001) and 5-14 years old (P<0.001), whereas it increased among 65 years and above (P<0.001). Adjusted for other covariates, mortality was higher in males (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.66), rural population (HR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.32, 2.31), highland (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.40) and among those widowed (HR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.81, 2.80) and divorced (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.48). Overall mortality rate was low. The level and patterns of mortality indicate changes in the epidemiology of major causes of death. Certain population groups had significantly higher mortality rates and further research is warranted to identify causes of higher mortality in those groups.

Annual Trends of Gastrointestinal Cancers Mortality in Iran During 1990-2015; NASBOD Study.

PubMed

Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Delavari, Farnaz; Sauvaget, Catherine; Rezaee, Negar; Delavari, Alireza; Kompani, Farzad; Rezaei, Nazila; Sheidaei, Ali; Modirian, Mitra; Haghshenas, Rosa; Chegini, Maryam; Gohari, Kimiya; Zokaiee, Hossein; Farzadfar, Farshad; Malekzadeh, Reza

2018-02-01

Gastrointestinal (GI) neoplasms are among the most common cancers in Iran. This study aimed to measure annual trends in mortality rates from GI cancers in Iran between 1990 and 2015. This study was part of an ongoing study termed the 'National and Subnational Burden of Diseases' study in Iran. Data used in this study was obtained from the Iranian Death Registration System (1995 to 2010) and from 2 major cemeteries in Tehran (1995 to 2010) and Isfahan (2007 to 2010). All-cause mortality rates were estimated using the spatio-temporal model and the Gaussian process regression model. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100 000 person-years was calculated using data from Iran and the standard world population for comparison. Among GI cancers, gastric cancer represented the leading cause of mortality followed by cancers of the esophagus, liver, and colorectal cancers with the ASMR of 20.5, 5.8, 4.4, and 4.0 per 100 000 persons-years, respectively, between 1990 and 2015. While a decreasing trend occurred in mortality of esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers, particularly in the recent decade, we recorded an upward pattern and steady rise in mortality rates from liver, pancreatic, and gallbladder cancers during the study period. The ASMR of all studied causes were enhanced by advancing age and were found to be more prominent in adults aged 50 or older. Among all age-groups, higher death rates were detected in males versus females for all studied cancers except for gallbladder and biliary tract cancers. Gastric cancer mortality is still high and death rates from several other GI cancers are increasing in the nation. Interventions for cancer prevention, early detection, and access to high quality cancer treatment services are needed to reduce GI cancer burden and death rates in Iran and in the region. © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana

PubMed Central

Mupara, Lucia U.; Lubbe, Johanna C.

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. Design A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. Results The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. Conclusions The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana. PMID:26899774

Association of rule of law and health outcomes: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pinzon-Rondon, Angela Maria; Attaran, Amir; Botero, Juan Carlos; Ruiz-Sternberg, Angela Maria

2015-10-29

To explore whether the rule of law is a foundational determinant of health that underlies other socioeconomic, political and cultural factors that have been associated with health outcomes. Global project. Data set of 96 countries, comprising 91% of the global population. The following health indicators, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, life expectancy, and cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality rate, were included to explore their association with the rule of law. We used a novel Rule of Law Index, gathered from survey sources, in a cross-sectional and ecological design. The Index is based on eight subindices: (1) Constraints on Government Powers; (2) Absence of Corruption; (3) Order and Security; (4) Fundamental Rights; (5) Open Government; (6) Regulatory Enforcement, (7) Civil Justice; and (8) Criminal Justice. The rule of law showed an independent association with infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, life expectancy, and cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality rate, after adjusting for the countries' level of per capita income, their expenditures in health, their level of political and civil freedom, their Gini measure of inequality and women's status (p<0.05). Rule of law remained significant in all the multivariate models, and the following adjustment for potential confounders remained robust for at least one or more of the health outcomes across all eight subindices of the rule of law. Findings show that the higher the country's level of adherence to the rule of law, the better the health of the population. It is necessary to start considering the country's adherence to the rule of law as a foundational determinant of health. Health advocates should consider the improvement of rule of law as a tool to improve population health. Conversely, lack of progress in rule of law may constitute a structural barrier to health improvement. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

[Perinatal mortality at Hospital de Ginecoobstetricia No. 23 of Monterrey, Nuevo León, 2002-2006 period].

PubMed

Gutiérrez Saucedo, María Elena; Hernández Herrera, Ricardo Jorge; Luna García, Sergio Arturo; Flores Santos, Roberto; Alcalá Galván, Luis Gerardo; Martínez Gaytán, Victoria

2008-05-01

Perinatal period begins at 22 gestational weeks and ends seven days after birth. Perinatal mortality is an important quality indicator of the obstetric and pediatric care available, and representative of the population's health service. To know fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal dead rates, and them main mortality causes. Descriptive and retrospective study at IMSS's no. 32 UMAE (Monterrey, Nuevo León, México), from January 2002 to December 2006. Mortality rates during fetal and perinatal, or neonatal periods, were estimated per 1,000 births or 1,000 live born, respectively. There were 1,681 deaths: 747 stillbirths and 934 neonatal. Two hundred and nineteen (29.3%) stillbirths had 22 to 27 gestational weeks, and 528 (70.6%) had 28. Three hundred and sixty neonatal deaths (38.5%) occurred before 27th gestational week, 320 (34.2%) between weeks 28th and 35th, and 254 (27.1%) after 36 weeks of pregnancy. Seven hundred and sixty four neonates died within 0 to 6 days of life, and 170 (18%) between seventh to 28th days of life. Fetal, neonatal, early neonatal, and late neonatal mortality rates were 7.2 in 1,000 births, 9.08 in 1,000 live born, 7.42 in 1,000 live born, and 1.65 in 1,000 births, respectively, and overall perinatal mortality rate was 14.58 in 1,000 births. Stillbirth, early neonatal, and perinatal mortality rates of this study were under national mean. Main mortality causes (70%) were congenital defects and prematurity.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

PubMed

McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina; Brando, Paulo; Brienen, Roel; Chambers, Jeff; Christoffersen, Brad; Davies, Stuart; Doughty, Chris; Duque, Alvaro; Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Fisher, Rosie; Fontes, Clarissa G; Galbraith, David; Goodsman, Devin; Grossiord, Charlotte; Hartmann, Henrik; Holm, Jennifer; Johnson, Daniel J; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Keller, Michael; Koven, Charlie; Kueppers, Lara; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Malhi, Yadvinder; McMahon, Sean M; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Phillips, Oliver L; Powell, Thomas; Sierra, Carlos A; Sperry, John; Warren, Jeff; Xu, Chonggang; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-16

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Trends in mortality burden of hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis before and after roll-out of the first pilot vaccination program against hepatitis B in Peru: An analysis of death certificate data.

PubMed

Ramírez-Soto, Max Carlos; Ortega-Cáceres, Gutia; Cabezas, César

2017-07-05

The first pilot vaccination program against hepatitis B in Peru was implemented in the hyperendemic Abancay province in 1991. To assess the impact of vaccination on mortality rates of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis, we compared mortality trends before (1960-1990) and after (1991-2012) roll-out of the vaccination program, using death certificate data from the Municipalidad Provincial de Abancay. Our results showed that, following program roll-out, the overall mortality rates (per 100,000 population) decreased from 9.20 to 3.30 for HCC (95% CI, 1.28-10.48%; P<0.014), from 16.0 to 6.3 for cirrhosis (95% CI, 3.20-16.10%; P<0.004), and from 34.80 to 1.28 for fulminant hepatitis (95% CI, 16.70-50.30%; P<0.001). The absolute number of deaths attributable to cirrhosis (10 [8.80%] vs. 0.0%; P<0.001) and fulminant hepatitis (83 [40.0%] vs. 5 [19.20%]; P<0.026) decreased in 5-14-year-old children following vaccination. These findings showed reduced mortality rates of hepatitis B-related liver diseases, particularly cirrhosis and fulminant hepatitis in children under 15years, following implementation of the vaccination program against hepatitis B. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-specific mortality patterns in Central Mozambique during and after the end of the Civil War.

PubMed

Noden, Bruce H; Pearson, R John C; Gomes, Aurelio

2011-05-26

In recent years, vigorous debate has developed concerning how conflicts contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, and in particular, the role of post-conflict situations in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. This study details the age-specific mortality patterns among the population in the central provincial capital of Beira, Mozambique, during and after the Mozambican civil war which ended in 1992. Data was collected from the death register at Beira's Central Hospital between 1985 and 2003 and descriptively analyzed. The data show two distinct periods: before and after the peace agreements in 1992. Before 1992 (during the civil war), the main impact of mortality was on children below 5 years of age, including still births, accounting for 58% of all deaths. After the war ended in 1992, the pattern shifted dramatically and rapidly to the 15-49 year old age group which accounted for 49% of all deaths by 2003. As under-5 mortality rates were decreasing at the end of the conflict, rates for 24-49 year old adults began to dramatically increase due to AIDS. This study demonstrates that strategies can be implemented during conflicts to decrease mortality rates in one vulnerable population but post-conflict dynamics can bring together other factors which contribute to the rapid spread of other infectious diseases in other vulnerable populations.

Women's Education and Health Inequalities in Under-Five Mortality in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1990–2015

PubMed Central

Bado, Aristide Romaric; Sathiya Susuman, A.

2016-01-01

Background The aim of the study was to analyse trends in the relationship between mother’s educational level and mortality of children under the year of five in Sub-Saharan Africa, from 1990 to 2015. Data and Methods Data used in this study came from different waves of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Sub-Saharan countries. Logistic regression and Buis’s decomposition method were used to explore the effect of mother’s educational level on the mortality of children under five years. Results Although the results of our study in the selected countries show that under-five mortality rates of children born to mothers without formal education are higher than the mortality rates of children of educated mothers, it appears that differences in mortality were reduced over the past two decades. In selected countries for our study, we noticed a significant decline in mortality among children of non-educated mothers compared to the decrease in mortality rates among children of educated mothers during the period of 1990–2010. The results show that the decline in mortality of children under five years was much higher among the children born to mothers who have never received formal education—112 points drop in Malawi, over 80 in Zambia and Zimbabwe, 65 points in Burkina Faso, 56 in Congo, 43 in Namibia, 27 in Guinea, Cameroon, and 22 to 15 in Niger. However, we noted a variation in results among the countries selected for the study—in Burkina Faso (OR = 0.7), in Cameroon (OR = 0.8), in Guinea (OR = 0.8) and Niger (OR = 0.8). It is normally observed that children of mothers with 0–6 years of education are about 20% more likely to survive until their fifth year compared to children of mothers who have not been to school. Conversely, the results did not reveal significant differences between the under-five deaths of children born to non-educated mothers and children of low-level educated mothers in Congo, Malawi and Namibia. Conclusion The decline in under-five mortality rates, during last two decades, can be partly due to the government policies on women’s education. It is evident that women’s educational level has resulted in increased maternal awareness about infant health and hygiene, thereby bringing about a decline in the under-five mortality rates. This reduction is due to improved supply of health care programmes and health policies in reducing economic inequalities and increasing access to health care. PMID:27442118

Is the high ischemic heart disease mortality rate in New York State just an urban effect?

PubMed Central

McNutt, L A; Strogatz, D S; Coles, F B; Fehrs, L J

1994-01-01

To determine whether New York State's high ischemic heart disease mortality rate was due primarily to an urban effect, rates for regions in the State were compared with each other and with national data. New York State mortality rates for the period 1980-87 were highest for New York City (344.5 per 100,000 residents), followed by upstate urban and rural areas (267.1-285.1), and New York City suburbs (272.5). However, the overall 1986 age-adjusted rate for the New York State region with the lowest mortality rate (265.7) exceeded that of 42 States. New York State's number one ischemic heart disease mortality ranking reflects the need for statewide intervention programs, because even regions with relatively low mortality rates are high when they are compared with national rates. PMID:8041858

LiST modelling with monitoring data to estimate impact on child mortality of an ORS and zinc programme with public sector providers in Bihar, India.

PubMed

Ayyanat, Jayachandran A; Harbour, Catherine; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Manjula

2018-01-05

Many interventions have attempted to increase vulnerable and remote populations' access to ORS and zinc to reduce child mortality from diarrhoea. However, the impact of these interventions is difficult to measure. From 2010 to 15, Micronutrient Initiative (MI), worked with the public sector in Bihar, India to enable community health workers to treat and report uncomplicated child diarrhoea with ORS and zinc. We describe how we estimated programme's impact on child mortality with Lives Saved Tool (LiST) modelling and data from MI's management information system (MIS). This study demonstrates that using LiST modelling and MIS data are viable options for evaluating programmes to reduce child mortality. We used MI's programme monitoring data to estimate coverage rates and LiST modelling software to estimate programme impact on child mortality. Four scenarios estimated the effects of different rates of programme scale-up and programme coverage on estimated child mortality by measuring children's lives saved. The programme saved an estimated 806-975 children under-5 who had diarrhoea during five-year project phase. Increasing ORS and zinc coverage rates to 19.8% & 18.3% respectively under public sector coverage with effective treatment would have increased the programme's impact on child mortality and could have achieved the project goal of saving 4200 children's lives during the five-year programme. Programme monitoring data can be used with LiST modelling software to estimate coverage rates and programme impact on child mortality. This modelling approach may cost less and yield estimates sooner than directly measuring programme impact with population-based surveys. However, users must be cautious about relying on modelled estimates of impact and ensure that the programme monitoring data used is complete and precise about the programme aspects that are modelled. Otherwise, LiST may mis-estimate impact on child mortality. Further, LiST software may require modifications to its built-in assumptions to capture programmatic inputs. LiST assumes that mortality rates and cause of death structure change only in response to changes in programme coverage. In Bihar, overall child mortality has decreased and diarrhoea seems to be less lethal than previously, but at present LiST does not adjust its estimates for these sorts of changes.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island

PubMed Central

Kingsley, Samantha L.; Eliot, Melissa N.; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R.; Wellenius, Gregory A.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Methods: We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046–2053 and 2092–2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Results: Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092–2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6–1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9–41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8–2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. Conclusions: With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Citation: Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460–467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826 PMID:26251954

Nationwide implementation of integrated community case management of childhood illness in Rwanda

PubMed Central

Mugeni, Catherine; Levine, Adam C; Munyaneza, Richard M; Mulindahabi, Epiphanie; Cockrell, Hannah C; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Nutt, Cameron T; Wagner, Claire M; Gaju, Erick; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Karema, Corine; Ngabo, Fidele; Binagwaho, Agnes

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Between 2008 and 2011, Rwanda introduced integrated community case management (iCCM) of childhood illness nationwide. Community health workers in each of Rwanda's nearly 15,000 villages were trained in iCCM and equipped for empirical diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria; for malnutrition surveillance; and for comprehensive reporting and referral services. Methods: We used data from the Rwanda health management information system (HMIS) to calculate monthly all-cause under-5 mortality rates, health facility use rates, and community-based treatment rates for childhood illness in each district. We then compared a 3-month baseline period prior to iCCM implementation with a seasonally matched comparison period 1 year after iCCM implementation. Finally, we compared the actual changes in all-cause child mortality and health facility use over this time period with the changes that would have been expected based on baseline trends in Rwanda. Results: The number of children receiving community-based treatment for diarrhea and pneumonia increased significantly in the 1-year period after iCCM implementation, from 0.83 cases/1,000 child-months to 3.80 cases/1,000 child-months (P = .01) and 0.25 cases/1,000 child-months to 5.28 cases/1,000 child-months (P<.001), respectively. On average, total under-5 mortality rates declined significantly by 38% (P<.001), and health facility use declined significantly by 15% (P = .006). These decreases were significantly greater than would have been expected based on baseline trends. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate decreases in both child mortality and health facility use after implementing iCCM of childhood illness at a national level. While our study design does not allow for direct attribution of these changes to implementation of iCCM, these results are in line with those of prior studies conducted at the sub-national level in other low-income countries. PMID:25276592

Evaluation of the national control of diarrhoeal disease programme in the Philippines, 1980-93.

PubMed Central

Baltazar, Jane C.; Nadera, Dinah P.; Victora, Cesar G.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the National Control of Diarrhoeal Disease Programme (NCDDP) in the Philippines over the period 1980-93, describing levels and trends in programme activities, and relating them to severe diarrhoea morbidity and mortality among under-5-year-olds. METHODS: Routinely collected data on morbidity and mortality trends were obtained from health statistics reports of the Health Intelligence Service and the NCDDP. Socioeconomic indicators, including annual average family income and expenditures, gross national product, and unemployment rates, were derived from the Philippine population census data collected by the National Statistics Office. FINDINGS: In relation to baseline levels, diarrhoea mortality among infants and young children fell by about 5% annually over the 18-year period under review. The decline was faster than those related to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) among children of similar age and to perinatal causes. Diarrhoea hospital admission rates registered an annual decline of 2.4% relative to the baseline level. CONCLUSION:These findings suggest that the programme had a substantial impact; the period under review also witnessed some degree of improvement in other factors with positive influences on health, such as exclusive breastfeeding, nutrition and environmental sanitation. The quality, particularly completeness and reliability, of the existing data did not allow further analysis, thus, making it difficult to conclude beyond doubt that the observed trends indicate that they were solely due to NCDDP. PMID:12219155

Current UK practice in emergency laparotomy

PubMed Central

Barrow, E; Varley, S; Pichel, AC; Peden, CJ; Saunders, DI; Murray, D

2013-01-01

Introduction Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure, with 30,000–50,000 performed annually in the UK. This large scale study reports the current spectrum of emergency laparotomies, and the influence of the surgical procedure, underlying pathology and subspecialty of the operating surgeon on mortality. Methods Anonymised data on consecutive patients undergoing an emergency laparotomy were submitted for a three-month period. The primary outcome measure was unadjusted 30-day mortality. Appendicectomy and cholecystectomy were among the procedures excluded. Results Data from 1,708 patients from 35 National Health Service hospitals were analysed. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 14.8%. ‘True’ emergency laparotomies (ie those classified by the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death as immediate or urgent) comprised 86.5% of cases. The mortality rate rose from 8.0% among expedited cases to 14.3% among urgent cases and to 25.7% among laparotomies termed immediate. Among the most common index procedures, small bowel resection exhibited the highest 30-day mortality rate of 21.1%. The presence of abdominal sepsis was associated with raised 30-day mortality (17.5% in the presence of sepsis vs 12.6%, p=0.027). Colorectal procedures comprised 44.3% and within this group, data suggest that mortality from laparotomy may be influenced by surgical subspecialisation. Conclusions This report of a large number of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in the UK confirms a remarkably high mortality by modern standards across the range. Very few pathologies or procedures can be considered anything other than high risk. The need for routine consultant involvement and critical care is evident, and the case distribution helps define the surgical skill set needed for a modern emergency laparotomy service. Preliminary data relating outcomes from emergency colonic surgery to surgical subspecialty require urgent further study. PMID:24165345

Current UK practice in emergency laparotomy.

PubMed

Barrow, E; Anderson, I D; Varley, S; Pichel, A C; Peden, C J; Saunders, D I; Murray, D

2013-11-01

Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure, with 30,000-50,000 performed annually in the UK. This large scale study reports the current spectrum of emergency laparotomies, and the influence of the surgical procedure, underlying pathology and subspecialty of the operating surgeon on mortality. Anonymised data on consecutive patients undergoing an emergency laparotomy were submitted for a three-month period. The primary outcome measure was unadjusted 30-day mortality. Appendicectomy and cholecystectomy were among the procedures excluded. Data from 1,708 patients from 35 National Health Service hospitals were analysed. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 14.8%. 'True' emergency laparotomies (ie those classified by the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death as immediate or urgent) comprised 86.5% of cases. The mortality rate rose from 8.0% among expedited cases to 14.3% among urgent cases and to 25.7% among laparotomies termed immediate. Among the most common index procedures, small bowel resection exhibited the highest 30-day mortality rate of 21.1%. The presence of abdominal sepsis was associated with raised 30-day mortality (17.5% in the presence of sepsis vs 12.6%, p=0.027). Colorectal procedures comprised 44.3% and within this group, data suggest that mortality from laparotomy may be influenced by surgical subspecialisation. This report of a large number of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in the UK confirms a remarkably high mortality by modern standards across the range. Very few pathologies or procedures can be considered anything other than high risk. The need for routine consultant involvement and critical care is evident, and the case distribution helps define the surgical skill set needed for a modern emergency laparotomy service. Preliminary data relating outcomes from emergency colonic surgery to surgical subspecialty require urgent further study.

Estimates of performance in the rate of decline of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jamison, Dean T

2014-03-01

BACKGROUND; Measuring country performance in health has focused on assessing predicted vs observed levels of outcomes, an indicator that varies slowly over time. An alternative is to measure performance in terms of the rate of change in how a selected outcome compares to what would be expected given contextual determinants. Rates of change in health indicators can prove more sensitive than levels to changes in social, intersectoral or health policy context. It is thus similar to the growth rate of gross domestic product in the economic context. We assess performance in the rate of change (decline) of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries. For 1970-2010, we study the evolution in rates of decline of under-five mortality. For each decade, we define performance as the average of the difference between the observed rate of decline and a rate of decline predicted by a model controlling for the contextual factors of income, female education levels, decade and geographical location. In the 1970s, the top performer in the rate of decline of under-five mortality was Costa Rica. In the 2000s, the top performer was Turkey. Overall, performance in rates of decline correlated little with performance in levels of under-five mortality. A major transition in performance between decades suggests a change in underlying determinants and we report the magnitude of these transitions. For example, heavily AIDS impacted countries, such as Botswana, experienced major drops in performance between the 1980s and the 1990s and some, including Botswana, experienced major compensatory improvements between the 1990s and the 2000s. Rate-based measures of country performance in health provide a starting point for assessments of the importance of health system, social and intersectoral determinants of performance.

Retrospective evaluation of coyote attacks in dogs: 154 cases (1997-2012).

PubMed

Frauenthal, Virginia M; Bergman, Philip; Murtaugh, Robert J

2017-05-01

To describe the clinical presentation and outcome of known attacks in client-owned dogs caused by the common coyote, Canis latrans. Retrospective observational study. Private referral hospital. One hundred fifty-four client-owned dogs known to be attacked by coyotes. None. Records from a private referral hospital from May 1997 through December 2012 were reviewed. Time of day and month/season of year, signalment, body temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, body weight, location and severity of wounds inflicted, common injuries, length of hospitalization, necessity of surgical wound repair under anesthesia, antimicrobial use and mortality were recorded. Eighty-six percent of dogs presenting following coyote attack weighed <10 kg. Overall mortality rate was 15.6%. Dogs with bite wounds to the thorax had the highest mortality at 21.3%. Criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) based on admission vital signs were met in 58.8% of dogs and the presence of SIRS was significantly associated with mortality (P < 0.001). Common coyote-induced injuries included rib fracture (38/154; 24.6%), pulmonary contusion (30/154; 19.4%), tracheal tear (18/154; 11.6%), pneumothorax (16/154; 10.3%), abdominal wall hernia (9/154; 5.8%), and abdominal penetrating wounds (8/146; 5.5%). Dogs <10 kg were significantly more likely to incur wounds to multiple body parts or sustain abdominal penetrating wounds. The presence of rib fracture was significantly associated with mortality. Frequency of coyote attacks over the time of this study increased by 330%. Coyote attacks on dogs are a problem in Southern California and are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, especially in dogs with wounds to the thorax. Aggressive management involving surgical wound repair was associated with survival to discharge. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2017.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Does spending on refugees make a difference? A cross-sectional study of the association between refugee program spending and health outcomes in 70 sites in 17 countries.

PubMed

Tan, Timothy M; Spiegel, Paul; Haskew, Christopher; Greenough, P Gregg

2016-01-01

Numerous simultaneous complex humanitarian emergencies strain the ability of local governments and the international community to respond, underscoring the importance of cost-effective use of limited resources. At the end of 2011, 42.5 million people were forcibly displaced, including 10.4 million refugees under the mandate of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). UNHCR spent US$1.65 billion on refugee programs in 2011. We analyze the impact of aggregate-level UNHCR spending on mortality of refugee populations. Using 2011 budget data, we calculated purchasing power parity adjusted spending, disaggregated by population planning groups (PPGs) and UNHCR Results Framework objectives. Monthly mortality reported to UNHCR's Health Information System from 2011 to 2012 was used to calculate crude (CMR) and under-5 (U5MR) mortality rates, and expressed as ratios to country of asylum mortality. Log-linear regressions were performed to assess correlation between spending and mortality. Mortality data for 70 refugee sites representing 1.6 million refugees in 17 countries were matched to 20 PPGs. Median 2011 spending was $623.27 per person (constant 2011 US$). Median CMR was 2.4 deaths per 1,000 persons per year; median U5MR was 18.1 under-5 deaths per 1,000 live births per year. CMR was negatively correlated with total spending ( p =  0.027), and spending for fair protection processes and documentation ( p =  0.005), external relations ( p =  0.034), logistics and operations support ( p =  0.007), and for healthcare ( p =  0.046). U5MR ratio was negatively correlated with total spending ( p =  0.015), and spending for favorable protection environment ( p =  0.024), fair protection processes and documentation ( p =  0.003), basic needs and essential services ( p =  0.027), and within basic needs, for healthcare services ( p =  0.007). Increased UNHCR spending on refugee populations is correlated with lower mortality, likely reflecting unique refugee vulnerabilities and dependence on aid. Future analyses using more granular data can further elucidate the health impact of humanitarian sector spending, thereby guiding policy choices.

[Trend of mortality of congenital malformation in children aged <5 years in Beijing, 2006-2015].

PubMed

Wang, J; Li, D Y; Zhang, W X; Li, Y C; Wang, J

2017-01-10

Objective: To investigate the change in mortality of congenital malformation in children aged <5 years in Beijing from 2006 to 2015. Methods: Using the death surveillance data in children aged <5 years in Beijing from 2006 to 2015, which was collected from the real-time surveillance network, we calculated the area and age distributions of the mortality of congenital malformation in children aged <5 years in Beijing. Meanwhile, the variations of age, time and space in the causes of deaths were discussed. Results: The mortality rate of congenital malformation in the children s decreased from 1.909‰ in 2006 to 0.703‰ in 2015, the decrease rate was 63.17 % . The decrease rate was highest in neonates (71.50 % ) ( χ (2)=57.993, P <0.01). Expect urban area ( χ (2)=3.384, P >0.05), the mortality rates of congenital malformation in the children showed a downward trend in outer suburban area and suburban area ( χ (2) =40.637 and 50.646, P <0.01). The proportion of the children died of congenital malformation decreased from 32.97 % in 2006 to 23.24 % in 2015, which mainly occurred in infancy and neonatal period ( χ (2)=9.395 and 4.354, P <0.05). The constituent ratios of the children died of neural tube defects, respiratory system abnormalities and other abnormalities decreased significantly ( χ (2)=13.478, 7.358, 7.912 and 10.074, P <0.01). The constituent ratios of children died of chromosomal abnormality, multiple malformations and digestive tract abnormality didn' t decreased significantly ( P >0.05). In the leading causes of deaths from congenital malformation, the mortality of congenital heart disease, neural tube defects and digestive tract atresia decreased obviously ( χ (2)=70.868, 18.431 and 9.225, P <0.01), except biliary atresia ( χ (2)= 1.407, P >0.05). There was an obvious area specific difference between the deaths of congenital heart disease and the deaths of neural tube defects, the mortality was higher in outer suburbs than in suburban and urban area ( χ (2)=45.783 and 6.649, P <0.05). Conclusion: Although the mortality rate of children with congenital malformation in Beijing has declined year by year, it is still the main cause of deaths in children under 5 years old, and the prevention and control of related diseases should be strengthened.

Evaluating large-scale blood transfusion therapy for the current Ebola epidemic in Liberia.

PubMed

Gutfraind, Alexander; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2015-04-15

To combat the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, the World Health Organization urged the rapid evaluation of convalescent whole blood (CWB) and plasma (CP) transfusion therapy. However, the feasibility and likely impacts of broad implementation of transfusions are yet unknown. We extended an Ebola virus transmission model published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to include hospital-based convalescent donations and transfusions. Using recent epidemiological estimates for EVD in Liberia and assuming that convalescent transfusions reduce the case-fatality rate to 12.5% (range, 7.5%-17.5%), we projected the impacts of a countrywide ramp-up of transfusion therapy. Under the 10% case-hospitalization rate estimated for Liberia in September 2014, large-scale CP therapy is expected to save 3586 lives by October 2015 (3.1% mortality reduction; 95% confidence interval [CI], .52%-4.5%). Under a higher 30% hospitalization rate, CP transfusions are expected to save 151 lives (0.9% of the total; 95% CI, .21%-11%). Transfusion therapy for EVD is a low-cost measure that can potentially save many lives in West Africa but will not measurably influence the prevalence. Under all scenarios considered, CP transfusions are predicted to achieve greater reductions in mortality than CWB. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Testing survey-based methods for rapid monitoring of child mortality, with implications for summary birth history data.

PubMed

Brady, Eoghan; Hill, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Under-five mortality estimates are increasingly used in low and middle income countries to target interventions and measure performance against global development goals. Two new methods to rapidly estimate under-5 mortality based on Summary Birth Histories (SBH) were described in a previous paper and tested with data available. This analysis tests the methods using data appropriate to each method from 5 countries that lack vital registration systems. SBH data are collected across many countries through censuses and surveys, and indirect methods often rely upon their quality to estimate mortality rates. The Birth History Imputation method imputes data from a recent Full Birth History (FBH) onto the birth, death and age distribution of the SBH to produce estimates based on the resulting distribution of child mortality. DHS FBHs and MICS SBHs are used for all five countries. In the implementation, 43 of 70 estimates are within 20% of validation estimates (61%). Mean Absolute Relative Error is 17.7.%. 1 of 7 countries produces acceptable estimates. The Cohort Change method considers the differences in births and deaths between repeated Summary Birth Histories at 1 or 2-year intervals to estimate the mortality rate in that period. SBHs are taken from Brazil's PNAD Surveys 2004-2011 and validated against IGME estimates. 2 of 10 estimates are within 10% of validation estimates. Mean absolute relative error is greater than 100%. Appropriate testing of these new methods demonstrates that they do not produce sufficiently good estimates based on the data available. We conclude this is due to the poor quality of most SBH data included in the study. This has wider implications for the next round of censuses and future household surveys across many low- and middle- income countries.

Trends and Patterns of Differences in Chronic Respiratory Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014.

PubMed

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W; Morozoff, Chloe; Shirude, Shreya; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L

2017-09-26

Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States. To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases. Validated small area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, and Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for chronic respiratory diseases. County of residence. Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. A total of 4 616 711 deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases were recorded in the United States from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014. Nationally, the mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases increased from 40.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39.8-41.8) deaths per 100 000 population in 1980 to a peak of 55.4 (95% UI, 54.1-56.5) deaths per 100 000 population in 2002 and then declined to 52.9 (95% UI, 51.6-54.4) deaths per 100 000 population in 2014. This overall 29.7% (95% UI, 25.5%-33.8%) increase in chronic respiratory disease mortality from 1980 to 2014 reflected increases in the mortality rate from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (by 30.8% [95% UI, 25.2%-39.0%], from 34.5 [95% UI, 33.0-35.5] to 45.1 [95% UI, 43.7-46.9] deaths per 100 000 population), interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (by 100.5% [95% UI, 5.8%-155.2%], from 2.7 [95% UI, 2.3-4.2] to 5.5 [95% UI, 3.5-6.1] deaths per 100 000 population), and all other chronic respiratory diseases (by 42.3% [95% UI, 32.4%-63.8%], from 0.51 [95% UI, 0.48-0.54] to 0.73 [95% UI, 0.69-0.78] deaths per 100 000 population). There were substantial differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality rates over time among counties, and geographic patterns differed by cause. Counties with the highest mortality rates were found primarily in central Appalachia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis; widely dispersed throughout the Southwest, northern Great Plains, New England, and South Atlantic for interstitial lung disease; along the southern half of the Mississippi River and in Georgia and South Carolina for asthma; and in southern states from Mississippi to South Carolina for other chronic respiratory diseases. Despite recent declines in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases, mortality rates in 2014 remained significantly higher than in 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality by county, sex, and particular chronic respiratory disease type. These estimates may be helpful for informing efforts to improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

Correlation of antidepressive agents and the mortality of end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Tsai, Chia-Jui; Loh, El-Wui; Lin, Ching-Heng; Yu, Tung-Min; Chan, Chin-Hong; Lan, Tsuo-Hung

2012-05-01

Depression is one of the most common psychological disorders in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients and is associated with impaired quality of life and increased mortality and rate of hospitalization. We aimed to examine the contributions of depression and the use of antidepressive agents in the mortality of ESRD patients. A retrospective observatory study was conducted using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. Patients with newly diagnosed as ESRD during the year 2001 to 2007 were collected. A total of 2312 ESRD patients were identified in the database. Statistical analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of depression and exposure of antidepressive agents in mortality rates of ESRD patients. Diagnosis of depression did not influence mortality rate (mortality rate in patients with depression: 26.5%; mortality rate in patients without depression: 26.2%; P= 1.000). Those who had antidepressive agents exposure had significantly higher mortality rate (mortality rate: 32.3%) than those who did not (mortality rate: 24.5%) (P < 0.001). Our findings suggest that (i) the mortality rate of ESRD patients was not affected by the diagnosis of depression, and (ii) exposure of antidepressive agents in ESRD patients was associated with a higher mortality rate. The high mortality rate in ESRD patients exposed to antidepressive agents can be a bias by indication. Equally, a true contribution of the antidepressive agents cannot be ruled out and this needs clarification. © 2012 The Authors. Nephrology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Chemical characterization of indoor air of homes from communes in Xuan Wei, China, with high lung cancer mortality rates

EPA Science Inventory

In a rural county, Xuan Wei, China, the lung cancer mortality rate is among China's highest, especially in women. This mortality rate is more associated with indoor air burning of smoky coal, as opposed to smokeless coal or wood, for cooking and heating under unvented conditions....

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

2016-01-01

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

Analysis of the Survival of Children Under Five in Indonesia and Associated Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Islami Warrohmah, Annisa; Maniar Berliana, Sarni; Nursalam, Nursalam; Efendi, Ferry; Haryanto, Joni; Has, Eka Misbahatul M.; Ulfiana, Elida; Dwi Wahyuni, Sylvia

2018-02-01

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains a challenge for developing nations, including Indonesia. This study aims to assess the key factors associated with mortality of Indonesian infants using survival analysis. Data taken from 14,727 live-born infants (2007-2012) was examined from the nationally representative Indonesian Demographic Health Survey. The Weibull hazard model was performed to analyse the socioeconomic status and related determinants of infant mortality. The findings indicated that mother factors (education, working status, autonomy, economic status, maternal age at birth, birth interval, type of births, complications, history of previous mortality, breastfeeding, antenatal care and place of delivery); infant factors (birth size); residence; and environmental conditions were associated with the childhood mortality. Rural or urban residence was an important determining factor of infant mortality. For example, considering the factor of a mother’s education, rural educated mothers had a significant association with the survival of their infants. In contrast, there was no significant association between urban educated mothers and their infants’ mortality. The results showed obvious contextual differences which determine the childhood mortality. Socio-demographic and economic factors remain critical in determining the death of infants. This study provides evidence for designing targeted interventions, as well as suggesting specific needs based on the population’s place of residence, in the issue of U5MR. Further interventions should also consider other identified variables while developing programmes to address infant’s needs.

Islamic Republic of Iran provides fresh data.

PubMed

1998-01-01

This article presents a demographic statistical profile of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on 1996 census data. The discussion also focused on the government actions taken since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Total population was 60.1 million. 61% of population lived in urban areas. 51.4% of the population were aged under 20 years of age. 4.3% were aged over 65 years. The annual rate of population growth was 2.7% during 1976-86, and 3.2% during 1986-96. Growth was accounted for by an increase in refugee flow, decreased mortality, and a higher birth rate. The Government in 1987, enacted the Family Planning Law as a measure to reduce the rapid population growth rate. The 1994-98 Five Year Plan integrates population issues with sustainable development strategies. The aim for 1998, is to reduce population growth to 1.5%, fertility to 2.5 children/woman, maternal mortality to 35/100,000 live births, and infant mortality to under 22/1000 live births. Islamic principles address gender issues having to do with equality, equity, and the empowerment of women. A Bureau of Women's Affairs, which was established under the President's Office, aims to promote the status of women and ensure their active participation within the development process. The government has advanced women's position by improving reproductive health and family planning programs. In late 1994, the government began to promote the activities of 70 nongovernmental organizations, many of which are concerned with women's issues. A high council for youth was set up in the President's Office.

[Political crises in Africa and infant and child mortality].

PubMed

Garenne, M

1997-01-01

Many African countries experienced severe political crises after independence, and in a number of cases the crises had significant demographic consequences, especially for child mortality. Data based on maternity histories allowed the reconstruction of child mortality trends over the past 20-30 years in Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Mozambique. The indicator used was the child mortality quotient (number of deaths of under-5 children per 1000 births). Uganda's child mortality declined from 227/1000 in 1960 to 154/1000 in 1970, but the trend was reversed in 1971, when Idi Amin Dada came to power, and the rate reached 204/1000 in 1982 before beginning to decline again. The level of mortality remained high, however, and was still 160/1000 in 1988. Ghana suffered a political and economic crisis during 1979-84. Child mortality rose from 130/1000 in 1978 to 175/1000 in 1983. Mortality rates began a rapid decline after structural adjustment programs were begun, possibly due to improved management of health services. The child mortality rate in Rwanda increased from around 220/1000 in 1960 to 240/1000 in 1975, before beginning a decline in the late 1970s that reached 140/1000 by 1990. The period of political stability and relative prosperity during the 15-year reign of Juvenal Habyarimana was associated with the decline. Political crises marked by student and peasant uprisings were associated with Madagascar's child mortality rate increase from about 145/1000 in 1960 to 185/1000 in 1985. Mozambique was beset by civil war after independence, in which destruction of the health infrastructure was a strategy. The child mortality rate increased from 270/1000 to 470/1000 between 1975 and 1986, a peak war year. The factors by which political crises affect mortality so profoundly remain to be explained, but particular attention should be given to studying the health sector.

Childhood mortality after a high dose of vitamin A in a high risk population.

PubMed Central

Daulaire, N. M.; Starbuck, E. S.; Houston, R. M.; Church, M. S.; Stukel, T. A.; Pandey, M. R.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To determine whether a single high dose of vitamin A given to all children in communities with high mortality and malnutrition could affect mortality and to assess whether periodic community wide supplementation could be readily incorporated into an ongoing primary health programme. DESIGN--Opportunistic controlled trial. SETTING--Jumla district, Nepal. SUBJECTS--All children aged under 5 years; 3786 in eight subdistricts given single dose of vitamin A and 3411 in remaining eight subdistricts given no supplementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality and cause of death in the five months after supplementation. RESULTS--Risk of death for children aged 1-59 months in supplemented communities was 26% lower (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.99) than in unsupplemented communities. The reduction in mortality was greatest among children aged 6-11 months: death rate (deaths/1000 child years at risk) was 133.8 in supplemented children and 260.8 in unsupplemented children (relative risk 0.51, 0.30 to 0.89). The death rate from diarrhoea was also reduced (63.5 supplemented v 97.5 unsupplemented; relative risk 0.65, 0.44 to 0.95). The extra cost per death averted was about $11. CONCLUSION--The results support a role for Vitamin A in increasing child survival. The supplementation programme was readily integrated with the ongoing community health programme at little extra cost. PMID:1739794

5 CFR 831.2202 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... computing the present value are those used by the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System for valuation of the System, based on dynamic assumptions. The present value factors are unisex... based on mortality rates for non-disability annuitants under the Civil Service Retirement System; and (b...

Iraq War mortality estimates: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tapp, Christine; Burkle, Frederick M; Wilson, Kumanan; Takaro, Tim; Guyatt, Gordon H; Amad, Hani; Mills, Edward J

2008-03-07

In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results. We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided. Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year. Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.

Mesoamerican nephropathy: geographical distribution and time trends of chronic kidney disease mortality between 1970 and 2012 in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Wesseling, Catharina; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Crowe, Jennifer; Rittner, Ralf; Sanati, Negin A; Hogstedt, Christer; Jakobsson, Kristina

2015-10-01

Mesoamerican nephropathy is an epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) unrelated to traditional causes, mostly observed in sugarcane workers. We analysed CKD mortality in Costa Rica to explore when and where the epidemic emerged, sex and age patterns, and relationship with altitude, climate and sugarcane production. SMRs for CKD deaths (1970-2012) among population aged ≥20 were computed for 7 provinces and 81 counties over 4 time periods. Time trends were assessed with age-standardised mortality rates. We qualitatively examined relations between mortality and data on altitude, climate and sugarcane production. During 1970-2012, age-adjusted mortality rates in the Guanacaste province increased among men from 4.4 to 38.5 per 100,000 vs. 3.6-8.4 in the rest of Costa Rica, and among women from 2.3 to 10.7 per 100,000 vs. 2.6-5.0 in the rest of Costa Rica. A significant moderate excess mortality was observed among men in Guanacaste already in the mid-1970s, steeply increasing thereafter; a similar female excess mortality appeared a decade later, remaining stable. Male age-specific rates were high in Guanacaste for age categories ≥30, and since the late 1990s also for age range 20-29. The male spatiotemporal patterns roughly followed sugarcane expansion in hot, dry lowlands with manual harvesting. Excess CKD mortality occurs primarily in Guanacaste lowlands and was already present 4 decades ago. The increasing rates among Guanacaste men in hot, dry lowland counties with sugarcane are consistent with an occupational component. Stable moderate increases among women, and among men in counties without sugarcane, suggest coexisting environmental risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Age-Specific Malaria Mortality Rates in the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Desai, Meghna; Buff, Ann M.; Khagayi, Sammy; Byass, Peter; Amek, Nyaguara; van Eijk, Annemieke; Slutsker, Laurence; Vulule, John; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Lindblade, Kimberly A.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Hamel, Mary J.

2014-01-01

Recent global malaria burden modeling efforts have produced significantly different estimates, particularly in adult malaria mortality. To measure malaria control progress, accurate malaria burden estimates across age groups are necessary. We determined age-specific malaria mortality rates in western Kenya to compare with recent global estimates. We collected data from 148,000 persons in a health and demographic surveillance system from 2003–2010. Standardized verbal autopsies were conducted for all deaths; probable cause of death was assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Annual malaria mortality rates per 1,000 person-years were generated by age group. Trends were analyzed using Poisson regression. From 2003–2010, in children <5 years the malaria mortality rate decreased from 13.2 to 3.7 per 1,000 person-years; the declines were greatest in the first three years of life. In children 5–14 years, the malaria mortality rate remained stable at 0.5 per 1,000 person-years. In persons ≥15 years, the malaria mortality rate decreased from 1.5 to 0.4 per 1,000 person-years. The malaria mortality rates in young children and persons aged ≥15 years decreased dramatically from 2003–2010 in western Kenya, but rates in older children have not declined. Sharp declines in some age groups likely reflect the national scale up of malaria control interventions and rapid expansion of HIV prevention services. These data highlight the importance of age-specific malaria mortality ascertainment and support current strategies to include all age groups in malaria control interventions. PMID:25180495

[Impact of health services, sanitation and literacy in the mortality of children under 5 years of age

PubMed

Gutiérrez, G; Reyes, H; Fernández, S; Pérez, L; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Guiscafré, H

1999-01-01

To analyze differences of the impact of health care services, sanitation and literacy on the mortality rates of children under five years of age, in two Mexican states with marked socioeconomic differences: Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. The study design was ecologic, based on a retrospective analysis of data published by the Health Ministry (Secretaría de Salud), National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática) and the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población), on the tendencies of mortality among children under five years and on the changes of selected indicators corresponding to the period 1990-1997. ecologic study. This was based on a retrospective analysis of data published by Secretaría de Salud, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática and Consejo Nacional de Población, about the tendencies of mortality among children under five years, and about the changes of selected indicators. The analysis was carried out in the period comprised between 1990-1997. For both states the registered variations were calculated and the trends were determined through analysis of simple linear regression; the independent variable corresponded to the study years. Partial correlation analysis between the various mortality trends studies and between and the selected indicators, were calculated. During the studied period there was a steady decline of children mortality, which was more marked in Chiapas. In both entities, this decrease was closely related to the decline in mortality due to acute diarrhea, and also correlated with a descent in measles and acute respiratory infections. In Chiapas, the indicators which correlated more significantly with this decline in mortality were vaccination coverage and literacy. In Nuevo Leon, the indicators with greater correlation were the increase in the number of nurses, of lodgings with piped water and vaccination coverage. During the analyzed period, the mortality rate of children under five years of age decreased in the states of Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. To sustain or accelerate the decline in childhood mortality it is mandatory to continue with the currently implemented programs, and in Chiapas, and similar states, to increase the available infrastructure to provide health care.

Social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assaults: England and Wales, 2001-03.

PubMed

Siegler, Veronique; Al-Hamad, Alaa; Blane, David

2010-01-01

This article presents age-specific mortality rates of children for selected causes of accidents and assault using the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC). The study is an analysis of the social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assault at the start of the 21st century. It aims to identify the causes and age groups for which these inequalities are the widest. In order to classify children by NS-SEC, the most advantaged class of the biological or adoptive parents was used. Death registrations provided the number of deaths from accidents and assault for children aged from 28 days to 15 years, in England and Wales, between 2001 and 2003. The population of children by NS-SEC and age group was obtained from the 2001 Census. Age-specific mortality rates were estimated. Inequalities were measured using socio-economic gradients in mortality. There were wide social inequalities in fatal accidents and assaults for children aged between 28 days and 15 years. The overall mortality rate in the routine class was 64 per million children aged up to 15, 4.5 times the rate of children with parents in the higher managerial and professional class. The greatest inequalities in accidental mortality for children in that age group were observed for fire and pedestrian accidents, followed by accidental suffocation. Infants at least 28 days but less than one year were subject to the widest inequalities of all age groups in fatal accidents and assault. The highest mortality rate in this study resulted from assault on babies whose parents could not be classified by occupation. Pedestrian and other transport accidents were the greatest causes of death for children between 5 and 15 years old. Inequalities were much larger for pedestrian than for other transport accidents for children aged 14 years and under. The leading cause of death for children aged less than five years was suffocation, followed by drowning and exposure to fire/hot substances. In that age group, the risk of death from exposure to fire was significantly higher for children whose parents could not be classified by occupation. Substantial social inequalities in childhood mortality from accidents and assault existed in 2001-03. Reducing the large inequalities between the most advantaged class and the most disadvantaged group in the non-occupied category, would make a substantial impact on childhood deaths from accidents and assaults. If the mortality rates in the latter group were the same as in the most advantaged managerial and professional class, deaths of infants of at least 28 days but less than one year, from assault would be reduced by 62 per cent. Deaths from fire, accidental suffocation and pedestrian accidents in the under fives would be reduced by 50 per cent, 25 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. Deaths in pedestrian and transport accidents for children aged 5-15 would be reduced by 25 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.

Absent end diastolic flow of umbilical artery Doppler: pregnancy outcome in 62 cases.

PubMed

Poulain, P; Palaric, J C; Milon, J; Betremieux, P; Proudhon, J F; Signorelli, D; Grall, J Y; Giraud, J R

1994-02-01

We retrospectively studied the outcome of pregnancy in 62 cases of absent end diastolic flow (AEDF) of umbilical artery Doppler flow velocity waveform. The history of pregnancies revealed that nearly all were of high risk. Many cases presented cerebral (65%) or uterine (55.5%) Doppler flow abnormalities, or both (38%). We noted 10 fetal deaths and decided 7 pregnancy terminations. Malformation and chromosomal defect rate was 16%. We noted 44 (71%) live-births, a very high rate of cesarean section (86%), prematurity (75%), small for gestational age (39%). Forty-five percent of the neonates had a 1-min Apgar score under 7, which dropped to 27% at 5 min. Neonate mortality rate was 6.9% and the total mortality rate was 34% (21/62). Morbidity was significant (7 cases with severe morbidity, 2 cases with chromosomal abnormality of poor prognosis). We compared different sub-groups with a view to looking for some prenatal factors which predict poor neonatal outcome in case of AEDF.

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

2014-04-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

An Analysis of Determinants of Under-5 Mortality across Countries: Defining Priorities to Achieve Targets in Sustainable Developmental Goals.

PubMed

Acheampong, Michael; Ejiofor, Chukwudi; Salinas-Miranda, Abraham

2017-06-01

Objectives The end of the era of millennium development goals (MDGs) ushered in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) with a new target for the reduction of under-five mortality rates (U5MR). Although U5MR decreased globally, the reduction was insufficient to meet MDGs targets because significant socioeconomic inequities remain unaddressed across and within countries. Thus, further progress in achieving the new SDGs target will be hindered if there is no adequate prioritization of important socioeconomic, healthcare, and environmental factors. The objective of this study was to assess factors that account most for the differences in U5MR between countries around the globe. Methods We conducted an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression-based prioritization analysis of socioeconomic, healthcare, and environmental variables from 109 countries to understand which factors explain the differences in U5MR best. Results All indicators examined individually affected differences in U5MR between countries. However, the results of multivariate OLS regression showed that the most important factors that accounted for the differences were, in order: fertility rate, total health expenditure per capita, access to improved water and sanitation, and female employment rate. Conclusions To achieve the new global target for U5MR, policymakers must focus on certain priority areas, such as interventions that address access to affordable maternal healthcare services, educational programs for mothers, especially those who are adolescents, and safe drinking water and sanitation.

Non-compliance with ACS-COT recommended criteria for full trauma team activation is associated with undertriage deaths.

PubMed

Tignanelli, Christopher J; Vander Kolk, Wayne E; Mikhail, Judy N; Delano, Matthew J; Hemmila, Mark R

2017-11-21

The appropriate triage of acutely injured patients within a trauma system is associated with improved rates of mortality and optimal resource utilization. The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma (ACS-COT) put forward six minimum criteria (ACS-6) for full trauma team activation (TTA). We hypothesized that ACS-COT verified trauma center compliance with these criteria is associated with low under-triage rates and improved overall mortality. Data from a state-wide collaborative quality initiative was utilized. We used data collected from 2014 through 2016 at 29 ACS verified level 1 and 2 trauma centers. Inclusion criteria were: adult patients (≥16 years) and ISS ≥5. Quantitative data existed to analyze four of the ACS-6 criteria (ED SBP≤90 mmHg, respiratory compromise/intubation, central GSW, and GCS<9). Patients were considered to be under-triaged if they had major trauma (ISS>15) and did not receive a full TTA. 51,792 patients were included in the study. Compliance with ACS-6 minimum criteria for full TTA varied from 51% to 82%. Presence of any ACS-6 criteria was associated with a high intervention rate and significant risk of mortality (OR 16.7, 95% CI 15.2-18.3, p<0.001). Of the 1004 deaths that were not a full activation, 433 (43%) were classified as under-triaged, and 301 (30%) had at least one ACS-6 criteria present. Under-triaged patients with any ACS-6 criteria were more likely to die than those who were not under-triaged (30% vs 21%, p=0.001). GCS<9 and need for emergent intubation were the ACS-6 criteria most frequently associated with under-triage mortality. Compliance with ACS-COT minimum criteria for full TTA remains sub-optimal and undertriage is associated with increased mortality. This data suggests that the most efficient quality improvement measure around triage should be ensuring compliance with the ACS-6 criteria. This study suggests that practice pattern modification to more strictly adhere to the minimum ACS-COT criteria for full TTA will save lives. Diagnostic Tests or Criteria, Level III.

Childhood mortality and its association with household wealth in rural and semi-urban Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Schoeps, Anja; Souares, Aurélia; Niamba, Louis; Diboulo, Eric; Kynast-Wolf, Gisela; Müller, Olaf; Sié, Ali; Becher, Heiko

2014-10-01

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between household wealth and under-5 year mortality in rural and semi-urban Burkina Faso. The study included 15 543 children born between 2005 and 2010 in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Information on household wealth was collected in 2009. Two separate wealth indicators were calculated by principal components analysis for the rural and the semi-urban households, which were then divided into quintiles accordingly. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study the effect of the respective wealth measure on under-5 mortality. We observed 1201 childhood deaths, corresponding to 5-year survival probability of 93.6% and 88% in the semi-urban and rural area, respectively. In the semi-urban area, household wealth was significantly related to under-5 mortality after adjustment for confounding. There was a similar but non-significant effect of household wealth on infant mortality, too. There was no effect of household wealth on under-5 mortality in rural children. Results from this study indicate that the more privileged children from the semi-urban area with access to piped water and electricity have an advantage in under-5 survival, while under-5 mortality in the rural area is rather homogeneous and still relatively high. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Morbidity and mortality of infectious diseases determined mass vaccination in children under 5 ans in Bamako District].

PubMed

Diawara, A; Sangho, H; Sango, H; Sacko, M; Sow, S; Toure, K; Doumbo, O; Simaga, S Y

2006-01-01

Available facts on morbidity and mortality due to PEV diseases for children under 5 years come from routine facts in Bamako District. The Present study through population investigation proposed to evaluate indicators. It was about a transversal investigation realised about 1014 children less than 5 year living in Bamako (on October 2000). The selection of children has been made by boring after stratification of the district based on socio-economic level and stabilization of population of different sectors. According to study, the global incidence rate of target patients of PEV is about 4.93% +- 1.33%. These rate were about 4.14% +- 1.22% for measles which is the 1st cause of morbidity among target patients of PEV, 0.69% +- 0.50% for whooping cough, 0.903% +- 0.19 for poliomyelitis and 0% for neo natal tetanus. For tuberculosis of which evolution have been appreciated trough counting of antituberculosis clinic register (DAT) during 10 years (1990-1999), its tendency was increasing. The death rate registered during investigation was related to measles with an estimated rate of 4.93% +- 4.31%. Results analysis, global incidence of PEV target patients was in decrease at Bamako district. At vaccinated patients against measles (64.3%) and whooping cough (57.14%) is in favour for an investigation about effective vaccinal.

Falls from heights in and around the city of Batman.

PubMed

Al, Behçet; Yildirim, Cuma; Coban, Sacid

2009-03-01

We evaluated the demographic data, mortality rates, fall causes, and post-mortem findings of individuals who fell from heights. Five hundred thirty-eight patients who sustained injuries after an accidental fall from heights were entered into the study. Our cases were collected prospectively in Batman over a seven- month period. The mean age was 12.4+/-3.22 years (3 months-98 years); 56.5% of patients were under 6 years old and 83.5% were under 20 years old. The mean fall height was 3.2+/-2.4 m. The mortality rate was 2.2%, and was highest among the patients who fell from flat-roofed houses. The most common injuries were to the head, and 100% of those who died had a head injury. Six patients were followed because of abdominal bleeding and 141 patients due to extremity fractures; 6.7% of patients were operated on and 83.8% of patients were treated in the emergency department. The results of this study were at variance with literature data with respect to the following: falls from heights were most common in the 0-5 years of age group. Craniocerebral trauma is the most common injury in fatal falls. Males had a higher rate of falls from height than females.

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming’an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes. PMID:28095437

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

PubMed

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming'an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

PubMed

2016-10-08

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Inaccuracies in oral cavity-pharynx cancer coded as the underlying cause of death on U.S. death certificates, and trends in mortality rates (1999-2010).

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2014-08-01

To enhance surveillance of mortality from oral cavity-pharynx cancer (OCPC) by considering inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death on death certificates vs. cancer site in a population-based cancer registry (as the gold standard). A database was used for 9 population-based cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, including deaths in 1999-2010 for patients diagnosed in 1973-2010. Numbers of deaths and death rates for OCPC in the SEER population were modified for apparent inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death. For age groups <65 years, deaths from OCPC were underestimated by 22-35% by using unmodified (vs. modified) numbers, but temporal declines in death rates were still evident in the SEER population and were similar to declines using routine mortality data for the entire U.S. population. Deaths were underestimated by about 70-80% using underlying cause for tonsillar cancers, strongly associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but a lack of decline in death rates was still evident. Routine mortality statistics based on underlying cause of death underestimate OCPC deaths but demonstrate trends in OCPC death rates that require continued surveillance in view of increasing incidence rates for HPV-related OCPC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)].

PubMed

Cassana, Alessandra; Scialom, Silvia; Segura, Eddy R; Chacaltana, Alfonso

2015-07-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru. This was a longitudinal, retrospective, analytical validation study, with data from patients with a clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated at the Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins between June 2012 and December 2013. We calculated the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality with a 95% confidence interval. A total of 339 records were analyzed. 57.5% were male and the mean age (standard deviation) was 67.0 (15.7) years. The median of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System obtained in the population was 12. The ROC analysis for death gave an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.5-0.7). Stratifying by type of upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulted in an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.53-0.78) for non-variceal type. In this population, the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System has no diagnostic validity for predicting mortality.

Trends and Patterns of Differences in Chronic Respiratory Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014

PubMed Central

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W.; Morozoff, Chloe; Shirude, Shreya; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H.

2017-01-01

Importance Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States. Objective To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases. Design, Setting, and Participants Validated small area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, and Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for chronic respiratory diseases. Exposure County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. Results A total of 4 616 711 deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases were recorded in the United States from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014. Nationally, the mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases increased from 40.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39.8-41.8) deaths per 100 000 population in 1980 to a peak of 55.4 (95% UI, 54.1-56.5) deaths per 100 000 population in 2002 and then declined to 52.9 (95% UI, 51.6-54.4) deaths per 100 000 population in 2014. This overall 29.7% (95% UI, 25.5%-33.8%) increase in chronic respiratory disease mortality from 1980 to 2014 reflected increases in the mortality rate from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (by 30.8% [95% UI, 25.2%-39.0%], from 34.5 [95% UI, 33.0-35.5] to 45.1 [95% UI, 43.7-46.9] deaths per 100 000 population), interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (by 100.5% [95% UI, 5.8%-155.2%], from 2.7 [95% UI, 2.3-4.2] to 5.5 [95% UI, 3.5-6.1] deaths per 100 000 population), and all other chronic respiratory diseases (by 42.3% [95% UI, 32.4%-63.8%], from 0.51 [95% UI, 0.48-0.54] to 0.73 [95% UI, 0.69-0.78] deaths per 100 000 population). There were substantial differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality rates over time among counties, and geographic patterns differed by cause. Counties with the highest mortality rates were found primarily in central Appalachia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis; widely dispersed throughout the Southwest, northern Great Plains, New England, and South Atlantic for interstitial lung disease; along the southern half of the Mississippi River and in Georgia and South Carolina for asthma; and in southern states from Mississippi to South Carolina for other chronic respiratory diseases. Conclusions and Relevance Despite recent declines in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases, mortality rates in 2014 remained significantly higher than in 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality by county, sex, and particular chronic respiratory disease type. These estimates may be helpful for informing efforts to improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. PMID:28973621

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause.

PubMed

Howard, G

1993-09-01

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

A longitudinal ecological study of the influences of political, economic, and health services characteristics on under-five mortality in less-developed countries.

PubMed

Chuang, Ying-Chih; Sung, Pei-Wei; Chao, Hsing Jasmine; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Chang, Chia-Jung

2013-09-01

This study used a longitudinal dataset and lagged dependent-variable panel regression models to examine whether political and economic characteristics directly predict under-5-year mortality rates (U5MR), and moderate the effects of health services and environment on U5MR. We used a sample of 46 less-developed countries from 1980 to 2009. Our results showed that the effects of political and economic characteristics on U5MR varied by non-sub-Saharan and sub-Saharan countries. After controlling for baseline U5MR and other socioeconomic variables, while foreign investment and health services were negatively associated U5MR, democracy was positively associated with U5MR in nonsub-Saharan countries. In contrast, debt was positively associated with and democracy and foreign investment were negatively associated with U5MR in sub-Saharan countries. The interaction analyses indicated that for sub-Saharan countries, the effects of health services on U5MR only existed for countries with low foreign investment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acute necrotizing pancreatitis: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Fernández-Cruz, L; Navarro, S; Valderrama, R; Sáenz, A; Guarner, L; Aparisi, L; Espi, A; Jaurietta, E; Marruecos, L; Gener, J

1994-04-01

A multicenter study of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) classified in accordance with the Balthazar criteria (grades D and E), has been performed in 12 teaching hospitals. A total of 233 patients were reviewed, and the mortality rate was 26.6%. The most common etiology was biliary pancreatitis (45.5%). Among the complications, shock, renal insufficiency, pulmonary insufficiency and hemorrhagic gastritis were associated with a mortality rate of 51-66%. Diffuse fluid collections were associated with a higher mortality rate (26.8%) than localized fluid collections (14.5%). In 106 patients with gallstone pancreatitis, early surgery was performed in 17, and 5 patients (29.4%) died. No mortality was observed in 32 patients with delayed surgery. Sphincterotomy was performed in 13 patients, and 4 (30.7%) died. Early surgery (necrosectomy and closed peritoneal lavage) was undertaken in 75 patients, with a mortality rate of 39%. In conclusion, the morbidity and mortality rates of ANP can be improved with proper monitoring, adequate supportive care and the judicious use of surgery based on clinical and morphological findings.

Estimating the Impact of Reducing Under-Nutrition on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in the Central Eastern States of India: A Dynamic Modeling Study.

PubMed

Oxlade, Olivia; Huang, Chuan-Chin; Murray, Megan

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) and under-nutrition are widespread in many low and middle-income countries. Momentum to prioritize under-nutrition has been growing at an international level, as demonstrated by the "Scaling Up Nutrition" movement. Low body mass index is an important risk factor for developing TB disease. The objective of this study was to project future trends in TB related outcomes under different scenarios for reducing under-nutrition in the adult population in the Central Eastern states of India. A compartmental TB transmission model stratified by body mass index was parameterized using national and regional data from India. We compared TB related mortality and incidence under several scenarios that represented a range of policies and programs designed to reduce the prevalence of under-nutrition, based on the experience and observed trends in similar countries. The modeled nutrition intervention scenarios brought about reductions in TB incidence and TB related mortality in the Central Eastern Indian states ranging from 43% to 71% and 40% to 68% respectively, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Modest reductions in under-nutrition averted 4.8 (95% UR 0.5, 17.1) million TB cases and 1.6 (95% UR 0.5, 5.2) million TB related deaths over a period of 20 years of intervention, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Complete elimination of under-nutrition in the Central Eastern states averted 9.4 (95% UR 1.5, 30.6) million TB cases and 3.2 (95% UR 0.7-, 10.1) million TB related deaths, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Our study suggests that intervening on under-nutrition could have a substantial impact on TB incidence and mortality in areas with high prevalence of under-nutrition, even if only small gains in under-nutrition can be achieved. Focusing on under-nutrition may be an effective way to reduce both rates of TB and other diseases associated with under-nutrition.

Results of surgical treatment for secondary spontaneous pneumothorax according to underlying diseases.

PubMed

Ichinose, Junji; Nagayama, Kazuhiro; Hino, Haruaki; Nitadori, Jun-ichi; Anraku, Masaki; Murakawa, Tomohiro; Nakajima, Jun

2016-04-01

The outcome of surgical treatment for secondary spontaneous pneumothorax (SSP) has rarely been investigated. We retrospectively reviewed 183 patients who underwent surgery for SSP. We categorized the patients into three groups according to underlying diseases: Group A (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), Group B (interstitial pneumonia [IP]) and Group C (others). We defined treatment success as surgery without hospital mortality, postoperative complications, death within 6 months or ipsilateral recurrence of pneumothorax within 2 years. We assessed the risk factors for unsuccessful treatment using a Cox regression hazard model. There were 123 patients in Group A, 20 in Group B and 40 in Group C. The hospital mortality rates were 2, 15 and 0% in Groups A, B and C, respectively. The hospital mortality, morbidity and pneumothorax recurrence rates in the IP group were higher than in the other groups. The 5-year overall survival rates were 78, 32 and 84% in Groups A, B and C, respectively; the prognosis of the IP group was significantly poorer. The treatment success rates were 86, 45 and 83% in Groups A, B and C, respectively. SSPs caused by IP and SSPs requiring open surgery were identified as the risk factors for unsuccessful treatment. Surgery for SSP caused by underlying diseases other than IP yielded favourable results. However, a careful examination of surgical indication and a realistic disclosure for informed consent are required for patients with SSP caused by IP, because of the high treatment failure rate. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Mortality among residents of shelters, rooming houses, and hotels in Canada: 11 year follow-up study.

PubMed

Hwang, Stephen W; Wilkins, Russell; Tjepkema, Michael; O'Campo, Patricia J; Dunn, James R

2009-10-26

To examine mortality in a representative nationwide sample of homeless and marginally housed people living in shelters, rooming houses, and hotels. Follow-up study. Canada 1991-2001. 15 100 homeless and marginally housed people enumerated in 1991 census. Age specific and age standardised mortality rates, remaining life expectancies at age 25, and probabilities of survival from age 25 to 75. Data were compared with data from the poorest and richest income fifths as well as with data for the entire cohort Of the homeless and marginally housed people, 3280 died. Mortality rates among these people were substantially higher than rates in the poorest income fifth, with the highest rate ratios seen at younger ages. Among those who were homeless or marginally housed, the probability of survival to age 75 was 32% (95% confidence interval 30% to 34%) in men and 60% (56% to 63%) in women. Remaining life expectancy at age 25 was 42 years (42 to 43) and 52 years (50 to 53), respectively. Compared with the entire cohort, mortality rate ratios for men and women, respectively, were 11.5 (8.8 to 15.0) and 9.2 (5.5 to 15.2) for drug related deaths, 6.4 (5.3 to 7.7) and 8.2 (5.0 to 13.4) for alcohol related deaths, 4.8 (3.9 to 5.9) and 3.8 (2.7 to 5.4) for mental disorders, and 2.3 (1.8 to 3.1) and 5.6 (3.2 to 9.6) for suicide. For both sexes, the largest differences in mortality rates were for smoking related diseases, ischaemic heart disease, and respiratory diseases. Living in shelters, rooming houses, and hotels is associated with much higher mortality than expected on the basis of low income alone. Reducing the excessively high rates of premature mortality in this population would require interventions to address deaths related to smoking, alcohol, and drugs, and mental disorders and suicide, among other causes.

Decrease in mortality rate and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction after the enactment of the smoking ban law in São Paulo city, Brazil.

PubMed

Abe, Tania M O; Scholz, Jaqueline; de Masi, Eduardo; Nobre, Moacyr R C; Filho, Roberto Kalil

2017-11-01

Smoking restriction laws have spread worldwide during the last decade. Previous studies have shown a decline in the community rates of myocardial infarction after enactment of these laws. However, data are scarce about the Latin American population. In the first phase of this study, we reported the successful implementation of the law in São Paulo city, with a decrease in carbon monoxide rates in hospitality venues. To evaluate whether the 2009 implementation of a comprehensive smoking ban law in São Paulo city was associated with a reduction in rates of mortality and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction. We performed a time-series study of monthly rates of mortality and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction from January 2005 to December 2010. The data were derived from DATASUS, the primary public health information system available in Brazil and from Mortality Information System (SIM). Adjustments and analyses were performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) method modelled by environmental variables and atmospheric pollutants to evaluate the effect of smoking ban law in mortality and hospital admission rate. We also used Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to make a comparison between the period pre and post smoking ban law. We observed a reduction in mortality rate (-11.9% in the first 17 months after the law) and in hospital admission rate (-5.4% in the first 3 months after the law) for myocardial infarction after the implementation of the smoking ban law. Hospital admissions and mortality rate for myocardial infarction were reduced in the first months after the comprehensive smoking ban law was implemented. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cancer Stage at Diagnosis and Survival among Persons with Social Security Disability Insurance on Medicare

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Ellen P; Ngo, Long H; Chirikos, Thomas N; Roetzheim, Richard G; Li, Donglin; Drews, Reed E; Iezzoni, Lisa I

2007-01-01

Objective To examine stage at diagnosis and survival for disabled Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with cancer under age 65 and compare their experiences with those of other persons diagnosed under age 65. Data Sources Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data and SEER-Medicare linked data for 1988–1999. SEER-11 Program includes 11 population-based tumor registries collecting information on all incident cancers in catchment areas. Tumor registry and Medicare data are linked for persons enrolled in Medicare. Study Design 307,595 incident cases of non-small cell lung (51,963), colorectal (52,092), breast (142,281), and prostate (61,259) cancer diagnosed in persons under age 65 from 1988 to 1999. Persons who qualified for Social Security Disability Insurance and had Medicare (SSDI/Medicare) were identified from Medicare enrollment files. Ordinal polychotomous logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate adjusted associations between disability status and later-stage diagnoses and mortality (all-cause and cancer-specific). Principal Findings Persons with SSDI/Medicare had lower rates of Stages III/IV diagnoses than others for lung (63.3 versus 69.5 percent) and prostate (25.5 versus 30.8 percent) cancers, but not for breast or colorectal cancers. After adjustment, they remained less likely to be diagnosed at later stages for lung and prostate cancers. Nevertheless, persons with SSDI/Medicare experienced higher all-cause mortality for each cancer. Cancer-specific mortality was higher among persons with SSDI/Medicare for breast and colorectal cancer patients. Conclusions Disabled Medicare beneficiaries are diagnosed with cancer at similar or earlier stages than others. However, they experience higher rates of cancer-related mortality when diagnosed at the same stage of breast and colorectal cancer. PMID:17362209

Is the Urban Child Health Advantage Declining in Malawi?: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys.

PubMed

Lungu, Edgar Arnold; Biesma, Regien; Chirwa, Maureen; Darker, Catherine

2018-06-01

In many developing countries including Malawi, health indicators are on average better in urban than in rural areas. This phenomenon has largely prompted Governments to prioritize rural areas in programs to improve access to health services. However, considerable evidence has emerged that some population groups in urban areas may be facing worse health than rural areas and that the urban advantage may be waning in some contexts. We used a descriptive study undertaking a comparative analysis of 13 child health indicators between urban and rural areas using seven data points provided by nationally representative population based surveys-the Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. Rate differences between urban and rural values for selected child health indicators were calculated to denote whether urban-rural differentials showed a trend of declining urban advantage in Malawi. The results show that all forms of child mortality have significantly declined between 1992 and 2015/2016 reflecting successes in child health interventions. Rural-urban comparisons, using rate differences, largely indicate a picture of the narrowing gap between urban and rural areas albeit the extent and pattern vary among child health indicators. Of the 13 child health indicators, eight (neonatal mortality, infant mortality, under-five mortality rates, stunting rate, proportion of children treated for diarrhea and fever, proportion of children sleeping under insecticide-treated nets, and children fully immunized at 12 months) show clear patterns of a declining urban advantage particularly up to 2014. However, U-5MR shows reversal to a significant urban advantage in 2015/2016, and slight increases in urban advantage are noted for infant mortality rate, underweight, full childhood immunization, and stunting rate in 2015/2016. Our findings suggest the need to rethink the policy viewpoint of a disadvantaged rural and much better-off urban in child health programming. Efforts should be dedicated towards addressing determinants of child health in both urban and rural areas.

Tackling Health Inequities in Chile: Maternal, Newborn, Infant, and Child Mortality Between 1990 and 2004

PubMed Central

Requejo, Jennifer Harris; Nien, Jyh Kae; Merialdi, Mario; Bustreo, Flavia; Betran, Ana Pilar

2009-01-01

Objectives. We analyzed trends in maternal, newborn, and child mortality in Chile between 1990 and 2004, after the introduction of national interventions and reforms, and examined associations between trends and interventions. Methods. Data were provided by the Chilean Ministry of Health on all pregnancies between 1990 and 2004 (approximately 4 000 000). We calculated yearly maternal mortality ratios, stillbirth rates, and mortality rates for neonates, infants (aged > 28 days and < 1 year), and children aged 1 to 4 years. We also calculated these statistics by 5-year intervals for Chile's poorest to richest district quintiles. Results. During the study period, the maternal mortality ratio decreased from 42.1 to 18.5 per 100 000 live births. The mortality rate for neonates decreased from 9.0 to 5.7 per 1000 births, for infants from 7.8 to 3.1 per 1000 births, and for young children from 3.1 to 1.7 per 1000 live births. The stillbirth rate declined from 6.0 to 5.0 per 1000 births. Disparities in these mortality statistics between the poorest and richest district quintiles also decreased, with the largest mortality reductions in the poorest quintile. Conclusions. During a period of socioeconomic development and health sector reforms, Chile experienced significant mortality and inequity reductions. PMID:19443831

High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

PubMed

Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

2014-01-01

High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean.

Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

2015-03-01

Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient risk factors for long-term mortality. Special attention and consideration should be given to these "at risk" patient sub-populations.

The "Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate (SUMMER) study in diabetes": Study protocol.

PubMed

Barchetta, I; Capoccia, D; Baroni, M G; Buzzetti, R; Cavallo, M G; De Cosmo, S; Leonetti, F; Leotta, S; Morano, S; Morviducci, L; Prudente, S; Pugliese, G; Trischitta, V

2016-02-01

The rate of mortality in diabetic patients, especially of cardiovascular origin, is about twice as much that of nondiabetic individuals. Thus, the pathogenic factors shaping the risk of mortality in such patients must be unraveled in order to target intensive prevention and treatment strategies. The "Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate (SUMMER) study in diabetes" is aimed at identifying new molecular promoters of mortality and major vascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The "SUMMER study in diabetes" is an observational, prospective, and collaborative study conducted on at least 5000 consecutive patients with T2DM, recruited from several diabetes clinics of Central-Southern Italy and followed up for a minimum of 5 years. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality; the secondary outcomes are cardiovascular mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and dialysis. A biobank will be created for genomic, transcriptomic, and metabolomic analysis, in order to unravel new molecular predictors of mortality and vascular morbidity. The "SUMMER study in diabetes" is aimed at identifying new molecular promoters of mortality and major vascular events in patients with T2DM. These novel pathogenic factors will most likely be instrumental in unraveling new pathways underlying such dramatic events. In addition, they will also be used as additional markers to increase the performance of the already existing risk-scoring models for predicting the above-mentioned outcomes in T2DM, as well as for setting up new preventive and treatment strategies, possibly tailored to specific pathogenic backgrounds. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02311244; URL https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02311244?term=SUMMER&rank=5. Copyright © 2015 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disparities in Under-Five Child Injury Mortality between Developing and Developed Countries: 1990-2013.

PubMed

Huang, Yun; Wu, Yue; Schwebel, David C; Zhou, Liang; Hu, Guoqing

2016-07-07

Using estimates from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we update evidence on disparities in under-five child injury mortality between developing and developed countries from 1990 to 2013. Mortality rates were accessed through the online visualization tool by the GBD study 2013 group. We calculated percent change in child injury mortality rates between 1990 and 2013. Data analysis was conducted separately for <1 year and 1-4 years to specify age differences in rate changes. Between 1990 and 2013, over 3-fold mortality gaps were observed between developing countries and developed countries for both age groups in the study time period. Similar decreases in injury rates were observed for developed and developing countries (<1 year: -50% vs. -50% respectively; 1-4 years: -56% vs. -58%). Differences in injury mortality changes during 1990-2013 between developing and developed nations varied with injury cause. There were greater reductions in mortality from transport injury, falls, poisoning, adverse effects of medical treatment, exposure to forces of nature, and collective violence and legal intervention in developed countries, whereas there were larger decreases in mortality from drowning, exposure to mechanical forces, and animal contact in developing countries. Country-specific analysis showed large variations across countries for both injury mortality and changes in injury mortality between 1990 and 2013. Sustained higher child injury mortality during 1990-2013 for developing countries merits the attention of the global injury prevention community. Countries that have high injury mortality can benefit from the success of other countries.

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Rates of obstetric intervention and associated perinatal mortality and morbidity among low-risk women giving birth in private and public hospitals in NSW (2000-2008): a linked data population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Dahlen, Hannah G; Tracy, Sally; Tracy, Mark; Bisits, Andrew; Brown, Chris; Thornton, Charlene

2014-05-21

To examine the rates of obstetric intervention and associated perinatal mortality and morbidity in the first 28 days among low-risk women giving birth in private and public hospitals in NSW (2000-2008). Linked data population-based retrospective cohort study involving five data sets. New South Wales, Australia. 691 738 women giving birth to a singleton baby during the period 2000-2008. Rates of neonatal resuscitation, perinatal mortality, neonatal admission following birth and readmission to hospital in the first 28 days of life in public and private obstetric units. Rates of obstetric intervention among low-risk women were higher in private hospitals, with primiparous women 20% less likely to have a normal vaginal birth compared to the public sector. Neonates born in private hospitals were more likely to be less than 40 weeks; more likely to have some form of resuscitation; less likely to have an Apgar <7 at 5 min. Neonates born in private hospitals to low-risk mothers were more likely to have a morbidity attached to the birth admission and to be readmitted to hospital in the first 28 days for birth trauma (5% vs 3.6%); hypoxia (1.7% vs 1.2%); jaundice (4.8% vs 3%); feeding difficulties (4% vs 2.4%) ; sleep/behavioural issues (0.2% vs 0.1%); respiratory conditions (1.2% vs 0.8%) and circumcision (5.6 vs 0.3%) but they were less likely to be admitted for prophylactic antibiotics (0.2% vs 0.6%) and for socioeconomic circumstances (0.1% vs 0.7%). Rates of perinatal mortality were not statistically different between the two groups. For low-risk women, care in a private hospital, which includes higher rates of intervention, appears to be associated with higher rates of morbidity seen in the neonate and no evidence of a reduction in perinatal mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[Demographic characteristics and mortality among indigenous peoples in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Ferreira, Maria Evanir Vicente; Matsuo, Tiemi; Souza, Regina Kazue Tanno de

2011-12-01

The present study aimed to assess mortality rates and related demographic factors among indigenous peoples in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Central-West Brazil, compared to the State's general population. Mortality rates were estimated based on data obtained from the Health Care Database for Indigenous Peoples and monthly patient care records as well as demographic data from the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) and mortality data from the SUS Mortality Database. Compared to the overall population, among indigenous peoples there were proportionally more individuals under 15 years of age and fewer elderly, besides higher mortality rates at early ages and from infectious and parasitic diseases. Indigenous men showed significantly higher mortality rates from external causes and respiratory and infectious diseases, while among women the mortality rates from external causes and infectious diseases were higher. Suicide rates among young indigenous individuals were also particularly alarming. Indigenous people's health conditions are worse than those of the general population in Mato Grosso do Sul.

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

Projection of ambient PM2.5 exposure in India and associated health burden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk

2017-04-01

Ambient particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the major criteria pollutant for health assessments of air quality. (WHO, 2006). Exposure to PM2.5 has potential health risks due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases leading to premature mortality. The annual premature mortality burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is large ( 0.6-0.8 million). It is important to understand how the ambient PM2.5 concentration will change in future under the warming climate and how it translates into premature mortality, when the population distribution exposed to the pollution and baseline mortality are expected to change in response to changes in socio-economic condition to adapt to climate change impacts. We estimate ambient PM2.5 future (up to 2100) by adopting 2 approaches. In the first approach, PM2.5 is estimated as a product of AOD from the CMIP5 models (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and the present day conversion factor estimated by the Geos-CHEM model as a function of present day meteorological conditions and emission. The second approach involves adding up all the PM2.5 components (SO4, NH4, BC, SOA, POA, a fraction of sea salt and dust) available from 13 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The change is represented in relative terms with respect to the baseline period PM2.5 exposure (2001-2005), when satellite data are available and the CMIP5 models are run in historical mode. The difference between these two approaches implies the role of meteorology in modulating PM2.5 exposure for future due to climate change. We present the decadal statistics and separate the role of meteorology from the combined role of meteorology and emission in modulating PM2.5 variability. We project premature mortality for future using population for future, projected under 5 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios (definitions of these scenarios are provided in Table 1) developed by IIASA. The population under these five scenarios have varying capability to adapt and mitigate to cope up with the changing climate. We estimate premature mortality for two cases, (i) assuming BM to remain constant as of the present day, and (ii) modifying the BM as a function of gross development product. Relative risk is estimated using the IER function. Hence we develop customized scenarios for estimating premature death by linking projected PM2.5 under 2 RCP scenarios with population and baseline mortality from 5 SSP scenarios for each decade up to 2100, creating a total of 10 combined scenarios for each decade. We project that if baseline mortality remains as of present day (WHO 2011) then premature mortality increases up to the middle of the century and then decreases, but never decreases below the present day premature mortality, whereas if we assume that baseline mortality varies as a exponentially decaying function of GDP, premature mortality for future decades are projected to decrease below the present day estimate of premature mortality as GDP is projected to increase in all the 5 SSP scenarios. We further separate the effect of future meteorology, epidemiological changes and demographic changes in future on projected premature mortality. This study can help in the government in developing policies for future in order to avert the projected mortality and follow all the requirements that the best case scenario deserves in order to mitigate the effect of PM2.5 on mortality.

Excess mortality rate associated with hepatitis C virus infection: A community-based cohort study in rural Egypt.

PubMed

Mostafa, Aya; Shimakawa, Yusuke; Medhat, Ahmed; Mikhail, Nabiel N; Chesnais, Cédric B; Arafa, Naglaa; Bakr, Iman; El Hoseiny, Mostafa; El-Daly, Mai; Esmat, Gamal; Abdel-Hamid, Mohamed; Mohamed, Mostafa K; Fontanet, Arnaud

2016-06-01

>80% of people chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) live in resource-limited countries, yet the excess mortality associated with HCV infection in these settings is poorly documented. Individuals were recruited from three villages in rural Egypt in 1997-2003 and their vital status was determined in 2008-2009. Mortality rates across the cohorts were compared according to HCV status: chronic HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA positive), cleared HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA negative) and never infected (anti-HCV antibody negative). Data related to cause of death was collected from a death registry in one village. Among 18,111 survey participants enrolled in 1997-2003, 9.1% had chronic HCV infection, 5.5% had cleared HCV infection, and 85.4% had never been infected. After a mean time to follow-up of 8.6years, vital status was obtained for 16,282 (89.9%) participants. When compared to those who had never been infected with HCV in the same age groups, mortality rate ratios (MRR) of males with chronic HCV infection aged <35, 35-44, and 45-54years were 2.35 (95% CI 1.00-5.49), 2.87 (1.46-5.63), and 2.22 (1.29-3.81), respectively. No difference in mortality rate was seen in older males or in females. The all-cause mortality rate attributable to chronic HCV infection was 5.7% (95% CI: 1.0-10.1%), while liver-related mortality was 45.5% (11.3-66.4%). Use of a highly potent new antiviral agent to treat all villagers with positive HCV RNA may reduce all-cause mortality rate by up to 5% and hepatic mortality by up to 40% in rural Egypt. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A pediatric death audit in a large referral hospital in Malawi.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Elizabeth; Mlotha-Mitole, Rachel; Ciccone, Emily J; Tilly, Alyssa E; Montijo, Jennie M; Lang, Hans-Joerg; Eckerle, Michelle

2018-02-21

Death audits have been used to describe pediatric mortality in under-resourced settings, where record keeping is often a challenge. This information provides the cornerstone for the foundation of quality improvement initiatives. Malawi, located in sub-Saharan Africa, currently has an Under-5 mortality rate of 64/1000. Kamuzu Central Hospital, in the capital city Lilongwe, is a busy government referral hospital, which admits up to 3000 children per month. A study published in 2013 reported mortality rates as high as 9%. This is the first known audit of pediatric death files conducted at this hospital. A retrospective chart review on all pediatric deaths that occurred at Kamuzu Central Hospital (excluding deaths in the neonatal nursery) during a 13-month period was done using a standardized death audit form. A descriptive analysis was completed, including patient demographics, HIV and nutritional status, and cause of death. Modifiable factors were identified that may have contributed to mortality, including a lack of vital sign collection, poor documentation, and delays in the procurement or results of tests, studies, and specialist review. Seven hundred forty three total pediatric deaths were recorded and 700 deceased patient files were reviewed. The mortality rate by month ranged from a low of 2.2% to a high of 4.4%. Forty-four percent of deaths occurred within the first 24 h of admission, and 59% occurred within the first 48 h. The most common causes of death were malaria, malnutrition, HIV-related illnesses, and sepsis. The mortality rate for this pediatric referral center has dramatically decreased in the 6 years since the last published mortality data, but remains high. Areas identified for continued development include improved record keeping, improved patient assessment and monitoring, and more timely and reliable provision of testing and treatment. This study demonstrates that in low-resource settings, where reliable record keeping is often difficult, death audits are useful tools to describe the sickest patient population and determine factors possibly contributing to mortality that may be amenable to quality improvement interventions.

Temporal trends and ethnic variations in asthma mortality in Singapore, 1976-1995.

PubMed

Ng, T P; Tan, W C

1999-11-01

A study was undertaken to examine temporal trends and ethnic differences in the asthma mortality rate in Singapore. Asthma mortality rates in Singapore were estimated from vital data for the years from 1976 to 1995. Trends in sex and age specific (5-14, 15-34, 35-59, 60+ years) rates were obtained for four periods (1976-80, 1981-85, 1986-90, 1991-95) and for Chinese, Malay, and Indian subjects for the years when these data were available (1989-95). An increase in asthma mortality was observed in children aged 5-14 years from 0.21 per 100,000 person years in 1976-80 to 0.72 per 100,000 person years in 1991-95. No increases were noted in the other age groups but a small decrease was observed in the 1991-95 period for the 35-59 year age group. Marked ethnic differences in mortality rates were observed. In the group aged 5-34 years the asthma mortality rates were 0.5 per 100,000 in Chinese subjects, 1.3 per 100,000 in Indians, and 2.5 per 100,000 in Malay subjects. Similar 2-4 fold differences were observed in all other age groups. Apart from genetic factors, environmental exposures and medical care factors which influence asthma prevalence and severity are most likely to be the causes of the observed temporal trends and ethnic differences in the asthma mortality rate in Singapore, but further studies are needed to elucidate these more fully.

Preemptive spatial competition under a reproduction-mortality constraint.

PubMed

Allstadt, Andrew; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, G

2009-06-21

Spatially structured ecological interactions can shape selection pressures experienced by a population's different phenotypes. We study spatial competition between phenotypes subject to antagonistic pleiotropy between reproductive effort and mortality rate. The constraint we invoke reflects a previous life-history analysis; the implied dependence indicates that although propagation and mortality rates both vary, their ratio is fixed. We develop a stochastic invasion approximation predicting that phenotypes with higher propagation rates will invade an empty environment (no biotic resistance) faster, despite their higher mortality rate. However, once population density approaches demographic equilibrium, phenotypes with lower mortality are favored, despite their lower propagation rate. We conducted a set of pairwise invasion analyses by simulating an individual-based model of preemptive competition. In each case, the phenotype with the lowest mortality rate and (via antagonistic pleiotropy) the lowest propagation rate qualified as evolutionarily stable among strategies simulated. This result, for a fixed propagation to mortality ratio, suggests that a selective response to spatial competition can extend the time scale of the population's dynamics, which in turn decelerates phenotypic evolution.

Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura-hemolytic uremic syndrome (TTP-HUS): a 24-year clinical experience with 178 patients

PubMed Central

Levandovsky, Mark; Harvey, Danielle; Lara, Primo; Wun, Ted

2008-01-01

Background Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and the hemolytic uremic syndrome (TTP-HUS) are related and uncommon disorders with a high fatality and complication rate if untreated. Plasma exchange therapy has been shown to produce high response rates and improve survival in patients with many forms of TTP-HUS. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 178 consecutively treated patients with TTP-HUS and analyzed whether clinical or laboratory characteristics could predict for important short- and long-term outcome measures. Results Overall 30-day mortality was 16% (n = 27). 171 patients (96%) received plasma exchange as the principal treatment, with a mean of 8 exchanges and a mean cumulative infused volume of 42 ± 71 L of fresh frozen plasma. The rate of complete response was 65% or 55% depending on whether this was defined by a platelet count of 100,000/μl or 150,000/μl, respectively. The rate of relapse was 18%. The Clinical Severity Score did not predict for 30-day mortality or relapse. The time to complete response did not predict for relapse. Renal insufficiency at presentation was associated with a decreased risk of relapse, with each unit increase in serum creatinine associated with a 40% decreased odds of relapse. 72% of our cohort had an idiopathic TTP-sporadic HUS, while 17% had an underlying cancer, received a solid organ transplant or were treated with a mitomycin-based therapy. The estimated overall 5-year survival was 55% and was significantly better in those without serious underlying conditions. Conclusion Plasma exchange therapy produced both high response and survival rates in this large cohort of patients with TTP-HUS. The Clinical Severity Score did not predict for 30-day mortality or relapse, contrary to our previous findings. Interestingly, the presence of renal insufficiency was associated with a decreased risk of relapse. The most important predictor of mortality was the presence or absence of a serious underlying disorder. PMID:19046460

The impact of tobacco taxes on mortality in the USA, 1970-2005.

PubMed

Bowser, Diana; Canning, David; Okunogbe, Adeyemi

2016-01-01

This paper aimed to estimate the effect of tobacco taxes on total mortality and cause-specific mortality in the 50 States plus the District of Columbia, USA, over the period 1970-2005 as well as the net effect on deaths averted in 2010. We used a fixed effects panel regression to measure the impact of changes in total tobacco taxes on total and cause-specific mortality rates over the period 1970-2005, using a 5-year lag structure between changes in tobacco taxes and mortality rates. The estimates were used to determine the number of deaths averted in the year 2010 by tobacco tax increases over the period 1970-2005. Descriptive results showed that nominal total tobacco tax increased from US$0.18 in 1970 to US$1.24 in 2005, which after adjusting to 2005 US$, corresponds to an increase in real total tobacco tax from US$ 0.89 in 1970 to US$ 1.24 in 2005. We found that increases in total tobacco tax were beneficial, with a $1 increase in total tobacco tax decreasing overall mortality rate by 8.0%. Based on these results, we estimated a net saving of 53 300 lives in 2010 due to the tobacco tax changes over the period 1970-2005. Our results demonstrate that higher tobacco taxes lead to lower total mortality rates and avoided deaths. Strong tobacco tax policies are essential to improving overall population health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Under-Five Mortality in High Focus States in India: A District Level Geospatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Kumar, Chandan; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar

2012-01-01

Background This paper examines if, when controlling for biophysical and geographical variables (including rainfall, productivity of agricultural lands, topography/temperature, and market access through road networks), socioeconomic and health care indicators help to explain variations in the under-five mortality rate across districts from nine high focus states in India. The literature on this subject is inconclusive because the survey data, upon which most studies of child mortality rely, rarely include variables that measure these factors. This paper introduces these variables into an analysis of 284 districts from nine high focus states in India. Methodology/Principal Findings Information on the mortality indicator was accessed from the recently conducted Annual Health Survey of 2011 and other socioeconomic and geographic variables from Census 2011, District Level Household and Facility Survey (2007–08), Department of Economics and Statistics Divisions of the concerned states. Displaying high spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) in the mortality indicator (outcome variable) and its possible predictors used in the analysis, the paper uses the Spatial-Error Model in an effort to negate or reduce the spatial dependence in model parameters. The results evince that the coverage gap index (a mixed indicator of district wise coverage of reproductive and child health services), female literacy, urbanization, economic status, the number of newborn care provided in Primary Health Centers in the district transpired as significant correlates of under-five mortality in the nine high focus states in India. The study identifies three clusters with high under-five mortality rate including 30 districts, and advocates urgent attention. Conclusion Even after controlling the possible biophysical and geographical variables, the study reveals that the health program initiatives have a major role to play in reducing under-five mortality rate in the high focus states in India. PMID:22629412

Mortality from systemic erythematosus lupus in Brazil: evaluation of causes according to the government health database.

PubMed

Costi, Luisa Ribeiro; Iwamoto, Hatsumi Miyashiro; Neves, Dilma Costa de Oliveira; Caldas, Cezar Augusto Muniz

To characterize the causes of mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Brazil between 2002 and 2011. An exploratory ecological study of a time series using data from the Mortality Information System of DATASUS, the Department of the Unified Health System (Brazil's National Health System). Brazil's SLE mortality rate was 4.76 deaths/10 5 inhabitants. The mortality rate was higher in the Midwest, North and Southeast regions than in the country as a whole. There were 6.3% fewer and 4.2% more deaths than expected in the Northeast and Southeast regions, respectively. The mean age at death was 40.7±18 years, and 45.61% of deaths occurred between the ages of 20 and 39. Incidence was highest in women (90.7%) and whites (49.2%). Disorders of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue were mentioned as an underlying cause of death in 77.5% of cases, and diseases of the circulatory system and infectious and parasitic diseases were also noted in fewer cases. SLE was mentioned as an underlying cause of death in 77% of cases, with no difference between the Brazilian regions (p=0.2058). The main SLE-related causes of death were, sequentially, diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems and infectious and parasitic diseases. This study identified a need for greater control of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and a better understanding of the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis in SLE. Infectious causes are still frequent, and management should be improved, especially in the early stages of the disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Increased Heart Rate Is Associated With Higher Mortality in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (AF): Results From the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF (ORBIT-AF)

PubMed Central

Steinberg, Benjamin A; Kim, Sunghee; Thomas, Laine; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard J; Holmqvist, Fredrik; Hylek, Elaine; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Naccarelli, Gerald; Reiffel, James A; Chang, Paul; Peterson, Eric D; Piccini, Jonathan P

2015-01-01

Background Most patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) require rate control; however, the optimal target heart rate remains under debate. We aimed to assess rate control and subsequent outcomes among patients with permanent AF. Methods and Results We studied 2812 US outpatients with permanent AF in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation. Resting heart rate was measured longitudinally and used as a time-dependent covariate in multivariable Cox models of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during a median follow-up of 24 months. At baseline, 7.4% (n=207) had resting heart rate <60 beats per minute (bpm), 62% (n=1755) 60 to 79 bpm, 29% (n=817) 80 to 109 bpm, and 1.2% (n=33) ≥110 bpm. Groups did not differ by age, previous cerebrovascular disease, heart failure status, CHA2DS2-VASc scores, renal function, or left ventricular function. There were significant differences in race (P=0.001), sinus node dysfunction (P=0.004), and treatment with calcium-channel blockers (P=0.006) and anticoagulation (P=0.009). In analyses of continuous heart rates, lower heart rate ≤65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.15 per 5-bpm decrease; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.32; P=0.04). Similarly, increasing heart rate >65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.10 per 5-bpm increase; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.15; P<0.0001). This relationship was consistent across endpoints and in a broader sensitivity analysis of permanent and nonpermanent AF patients. Conclusions Among patients with permanent AF, there is a J-shaped relationship between heart rate and mortality. These data support current guideline recommendations, and clinical trials are warranted to determine optimal rate control. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01165710. PMID:26370445

Increased Heart Rate Is Associated With Higher Mortality in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (AF): Results From the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF (ORBIT-AF).

PubMed

Steinberg, Benjamin A; Kim, Sunghee; Thomas, Laine; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard J; Holmqvist, Fredrik; Hylek, Elaine; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Naccarelli, Gerald; Reiffel, James A; Chang, Paul; Peterson, Eric D; Piccini, Jonathan P

2015-09-14

Most patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) require rate control; however, the optimal target heart rate remains under debate. We aimed to assess rate control and subsequent outcomes among patients with permanent AF. We studied 2812 US outpatients with permanent AF in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation. Resting heart rate was measured longitudinally and used as a time-dependent covariate in multivariable Cox models of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during a median follow-up of 24 months. At baseline, 7.4% (n=207) had resting heart rate <60 beats per minute (bpm), 62% (n=1755) 60 to 79 bpm, 29% (n=817) 80 to 109 bpm, and 1.2% (n=33) ≥110 bpm. Groups did not differ by age, previous cerebrovascular disease, heart failure status, CHA2DS2-VASc scores, renal function, or left ventricular function. There were significant differences in race (P=0.001), sinus node dysfunction (P=0.004), and treatment with calcium-channel blockers (P=0.006) and anticoagulation (P=0.009). In analyses of continuous heart rates, lower heart rate ≤65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.15 per 5-bpm decrease; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.32; P=0.04). Similarly, increasing heart rate >65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.10 per 5-bpm increase; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.15; P<0.0001). This relationship was consistent across endpoints and in a broader sensitivity analysis of permanent and nonpermanent AF patients. Among patients with permanent AF, there is a J-shaped relationship between heart rate and mortality. These data support current guideline recommendations, and clinical trials are warranted to determine optimal rate control. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01165710. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Beverage-specific alcohol sales and violent mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury Evgeny

2010-01-01

High violent mortality rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over recent decades have attracted considerable interest. A mounting body of evidence points to the binge drinking pattern as a potentially important contributor to the violent mortality crisis in Russia. In line with this evidence, we assume that higher level of vodka consumption in conjunction with binge drinking pattern results in close aggregate-level association between vodka sales and violent mortality rates in Russia. To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and mortality rates from external causes in Russia between 1980 and 2005 were analyzed by means of ARIMA time-series analysis. Results of the analysis indicate that violent mortality rates tend to be more responsive to change in vodka sales per capita than to change in total level of alcohol sales. The analysis suggests that a 1-litre increase in vodka sales per capita would result in a 5% increase in violent mortality rate, an 11.3% increase in accidents and injuries mortality rate, a 9.2% increase in suicide rate, a 12.5% increase in homicide rate, and a 21.9% increase in fatal alcohol poisoning rate. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol played a crucial role in the fluctuation in violent mortality rate in Russia in recent decades. Assuming that drinking vodka is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the binge drinking pattern is an important determinant of the violent mortality crisis in Russia.

The Diverse World of Early Childhood. Global Status Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neugebauer, Roger

2002-01-01

Examines demographic information about the status of young children around the world. Graphs nations with the largest populations of young children and highest percentage of their populations composed of young children in comparison to the aged, the percentage of regional populations under age 5 and over 64, and birth and infant mortality rates.…

Fertility and Child Mortality in Urban West Africa: Leveraging geo-referenced data to move beyond the urban/rural dichotomy

PubMed Central

Corker, Jamaica

2016-01-01

Demographic research in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has long relied on a blunt urban/rural dichotomy that may obscure important inter-urban fertility and mortality differentials. This paper uses Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) geo-referenced data to look beyond the simple urban/rural division by spatially locating survey clusters along an urban continuum and producing estimates of fertility and child mortality by four city size categories in West Africa. Results show a gradient in urban characteristics and demographic outcomes: the largest cities are the most advantaged and smaller cities least advantaged with respect to access to urban amenities, lower fertility and under-5 survival rates. There is a difference in the patterns of fertility and under-five survival across urban categories, with fertility more linearly associated with city size while the only significant distinction for under-5 survival in urban areas is broadly between the larger and smaller cities. Notably, the small urban “satellite cities” that are adjacent to the largest cities have the most favorable outcomes of all categories. Although smaller urban areas have significantly lower fertility and child mortality than rural areas, in some cases this difference is nearly as large between the smallest and largest urban areas. These results are used to argue for the need to give greater consideration to employing an urban continuum in demographic research. PMID:28943812

Increased Severity and Mortality of CAP in COPD: Results from the German Competence Network, CAPNETZ

PubMed Central

Braeken, Dionne C.W.; Franssen, Frits M.E.; Schütte, Hartwig; Pletz, Mathias W.; Bals, Robert; Martus, Peter; Rohde, Gernot G.U.

2015-01-01

Background:Mortality of community acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains high despite significant research efforts. Knowledge about comorbidities including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) might help to improve management and ultimately, survival. The impact of COPD on CAP severity and mortality remains a point of discussion. Objectives:Assess the prevalence and clinical characteristics of COPD in the observational German Competence Network for CAP, CAPNETZ, and to study the impact of COPD on CAP severity and mortality. Methods:1307 consecutive patients with CAP (57.0% males, age 59.0±18.5), classified as CAP-only (n=1043; 78.0%) and CAP-COPD (n=264; 20.2%) were followed up for 180 days. Associations between CAP, COPD and mortality were evaluated by univariate/multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Results:CAP-COPD patients were older, more often males, current/former smokers, with higher confusion-urea-respiratory rate-blood pressure, (CURB) scores. Length of hospital stay, urea, glucose and leucocytes plasma levels, and arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2) were significantly increased in CAP-COPD. Thirty, 90- and 180-day mortality rates were significantly increased in CAP-COPD (p=0.046, odds ratio [OR]=2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.015-6.037; p=0.003, OR=2.80, 95%CI 1.430-5.468; p=0.001, OR=2.57, 95%CI 1.462-4.498; respectively). Intensive care unit (ICU)-admission and age, but not COPD, were identified as independent predictors of short- and long-term mortality. Conclusion:Severity as well as mortality was significantly higher in COPD patients with CAP. To improve CAP management with the aim to decrease its still-too-high mortality, underlying comorbidities, particularly COPD, need to be assessed. PMID:28848837

Epidemiological situation of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality in a municipality in northeastern Brazil. A retrospective cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Silva, Luana Rodrigues da; Araújo, Ellen Thallita Hill; Carvalho, Moisés Lopes; Almeida, Camila Aparecida Pinheiro Landim; Oliveira, Adélia Dalva da Silva; Carvalho, Patrícia Maria Gomes de; Rodrigues, Tatyanne Silva; Campelo, Viriato

2018-01-01

The number of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths covers different segments of the population differently, making monitoring of this mortality essential. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological situation of AIDS-related mortality in a municipality in the northeastern region of Brazil. Retrospective cross-sectional study based on data from death certificates in the mortality information system of the Health Information Center, Municipal Health Foundation, Brazil. Between 2003 and 2013, we investigated death certificates on which AIDS-related mortality was reported. Sociodemographic data, year, place, type of establishment where death occurred and underlying and associated causes that led to AIDS-related death were described. The Mann-Kendall test was used to verify the growth trend of the standardized mortality rate over the period studied. Among the 1,066 AIDS-related deaths, 69.7% were among men; 47.2% of the individuals were 28-41 years of age, 32.7% had had 4-7 years of schooling, 66.9% were pardos (mixed race), 55.7% were unmarried and 15.3% were housekeepers. Hospitals were the site of 97% of the deaths, and 91% occurred at public hospitals. Respiratory failure was the main cause of death. The prevalence of infectious and parasitic diseases was 99.0%. AIDS-related mortality increased by 160% over the period studied, from 5.5/100,000 inhabitants in 2003 to 14.3/100,000 in 2013. In the Brazilian municipality studied here, AIDS-related mortality was most prevalent among men and young adults of lower socioeconomic level. Over the period studied, the mortality rate increased.

Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk R

2018-01-22

Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM 2.5 exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM 2.5 from baseline period (2001-2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM 2.5 . We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM 2.5 exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4-4 and 28.5-38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031-2040 and 2091-2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM 2.5 for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.

Mortality and comorbidities in patients with multiple sclerosis compared with a population without multiple sclerosis: An observational study using the US Department of Defense administrative claims database.

PubMed

Capkun, Gorana; Dahlke, Frank; Lahoz, Raquel; Nordstrom, Beth; Tilson, Hugh H; Cutter, Gary; Bischof, Dorina; Moore, Alan; Simeone, Jason; Fraeman, Kathy; Bancken, Fabrice; Geissbühler, Yvonne; Wagner, Michael; Cohan, Stanley

2015-11-01

Data are limited for mortality and comorbidities in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Compare mortality rates and event rates for comorbidities in MS (n=15,684) and non-MS (n=78,420) cohorts from the US Department of Defense (DoD) database. Comorbidities and all-cause mortality were assessed using the database. Causes of death (CoDs) were assessed through linkage with the National Death Index. Cohorts were compared using mortality (MRR) and event (ERR) rate ratios. All-cause mortality was 2.9-fold higher in the MS versus non-MS cohort (MRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.9, 2.7-3.2). Frequent CoDs in the MS versus non-MS cohort were infectious diseases (6.2, 4.2-9.4), diseases of the nervous (5.8, 3.7-9.0), respiratory (5.0, 3.9-6.4) and circulatory (2.1, 1.7-2.7) systems and suicide (2.6, 1.3-5.2). Comorbidities including sepsis (ERR, 95% CI: 5.7, 5.1-6.3), ischemic stroke (3.8, 3.5-4.2), attempted suicide (2.4, 1.3-4.5) and ulcerative colitis (2.0, 1.7-2.3), were higher in the MS versus non-MS cohort. The rate of cancers was also higher in the MS versus the non-MS cohort, including lymphoproliferative disorders (2.2, 1.9-2.6) and melanoma (1.7, 1.4-2.0). Rates of mortality and several comorbidities are higher in the MS versus non-MS cohort. Early recognition and management of comorbidities may reduce premature mortality and improve quality of life in patients with MS. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Response of alfalfa seed to stress storage conditions].

PubMed

Li, Chunjie; Wang, Yanrong; Zhu, Tingheng; Yu, Ling

2002-08-01

The seed germination rate, seed mortality, seedling length, and infection rate of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L. cv. 'Longdong') were measured at constant temperature 20 degrees C every 60 days during one year storage period after inoculated or no inoculated by Fusarium avenaceum under room temperature (RT), 35 degrees C, and 35 degrees C and +10% seed moisture content (SMC) conditions. Field emergence rates of seeds under above treatments were also observed, and seed-borne fungi were detected under the conditions mentioned above and controlled deterioration (CD) as well. The results showed that the percentage of isolated alfalfa seed-borne fungi was increased from 10% under room temperature and 35 degrees C to 29% under 35 degrees C + 10% SMC. Disease resistance was declined, and seed mortality and seedling infection rate under 35 degrees C + 10% SMC were significantly higher than those under room temperature and 35 degrees C respectively (P < 0.05). The seed germination rate and field emergence rate were also decreased significantly (P < 0.05). Seedling shoot and root length under 35 degrees C + 10% SMC were significantly less than those under RT and 35 degrees C respectively (P < 0.05). The percentages of both seed-borne fungi isolated and field emergence were decreased, and that of seedling infection was increased with storage period extending from 60 to 360 days. Compared to no inoculated control, the percentage of seed germination, seedling shoot and root length were decreased, and seed mortality and seedling infection rate were increased after inoculated by F. avenaceum.

High Israeli mortality rates from diabetes and renal failure - Can international comparison of multiple causes of death reflect differences in choice of underlying cause?

PubMed

Goldberger, Nehama; Applbaum, Yael; Meron, Jill; Haklai, Ziona

2015-01-01

The age-adjusted mortality rate in Israel is low compared to most Western countries although mortality rates from diabetes and renal failure in Israel are amongst the highest, while those from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are amongst the lowest. This study aims to assess validity of choice of underlying causes (UC) in Israel by analyzing Israeli and international data on the prevalence of these diseases as multiple causes of death (MCOD) compared to UC, and data on comorbidity (MCOD based). Age-adjusted death rates were calculated for UC and MCOD and the corresponding ratio of multiple to underlying cause of death (SRMU) for available years between 1999 and 2012. Comorbidity was explored by calculating cause of death association indicators (CDAI) and frequency of comorbid disease. These results were compared to data from USA, France, Italy, Australia and the Czech Republic for 2009 or other available year. Mortality rates for all these diseases except renal failure have decreased in Israel between 1999 and 2012 as UC and MCOD. In 2009, the SRMU for diabetes was 2.7, slightly lower than other Western countries (3.0-3.5) showing more frequent choice as UC. Similar results were found for renal failure. In contrast, the SRMU for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease were 2.0 and 2.6, respectively, higher than other countries (1.4-1.6 and 1.7-1.9, respectively), showing less frequent choice as UC. CDAI data showed a strong association between heart and cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes in all countries. In Israel, 40 % of deaths with UC diabetes had IHD and 24 % had cerebrovascular disease. Renal disease was less strongly associated with IHD. This international comparison suggests that diabetes and renal failure may be coded more frequently in Israel as UC, sometimes instead of heart and cerebrovascular disease. Even with some changes in coding, mortality rates would be high compared to other countries, similar to the comparatively high diabetes prevalence in Israel at older ages and high rate of end-stage renal failure. This study highlights the importance of physician training on death certification practice and need for further progress towards automation in recording and coding death causes.

Decline in Diarrhea Mortality and Admissions after Routine Childhood Rotavirus Immunization in Brazil: A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

do Carmo, Greice Madeleine Ikeda; Yen, Catherine; Cortes, Jennifer; Siqueira, Alessandra Araújo; de Oliveira, Wanderson Kleber; Cortez-Escalante, Juan José; Lopman, Ben; Flannery, Brendan; de Oliveira, Lucia Helena; Hage Carmo, Eduardo; Patel, Manish

2011-01-01

Background In 2006, Brazil began routine immunization of infants <15 wk of age with a single-strain rotavirus vaccine. We evaluated whether the rotavirus vaccination program was associated with declines in childhood diarrhea deaths and hospital admissions by monitoring disease trends before and after vaccine introduction in all five regions of Brazil with varying disease burden and distinct socioeconomic and health indicators. Methods and Findings National data were analyzed with an interrupted time-series analysis that used diarrhea-related mortality or hospitalization rates as the main outcomes. Monthly mortality and admission rates estimated for the years after rotavirus vaccination (2007–2009) were compared with expected rates calculated from pre-vaccine years (2002–2005), adjusting for secular and seasonal trends. During the three years following rotavirus vaccination in Brazil, rates for diarrhea-related mortality and admissions among children <5 y of age were 22% (95% confidence interval 6%–44%) and 17% (95% confidence interval 5%–27%) lower than expected, respectively. A cumulative total of ∼1,500 fewer diarrhea deaths and 130,000 fewer admissions were observed among children <5 y during the three years after rotavirus vaccination. The largest reductions in deaths (22%–28%) and admissions (21%–25%) were among children younger than 2 y, who had the highest rates of vaccination. In contrast, lower reductions in deaths (4%) and admissions (7%) were noted among children two years of age and older, who were not age-eligible for vaccination during the study period. Conclusions After the introduction of rotavirus vaccination for infants, significant declines for three full years were observed in under-5-y diarrhea-related mortality and hospital admissions for diarrhea in Brazil. The largest reductions in diarrhea-related mortality and hospital admissions for diarrhea were among children younger than 2 y, who were eligible for vaccination as infants, which suggests that the reduced diarrhea burden in this age group was associated with introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. These real-world data are consistent with evidence obtained from clinical trials and strengthen the evidence base for the introduction of rotavirus vaccination as an effective measure for controlling severe and fatal childhood diarrhea. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21526228

In-Hospital Disease Burden of Sarcoidosis in Switzerland from 2002 to 2012.

PubMed

Pohle, Susanne; Baty, Florent; Brutsche, Martin

2016-01-01

Sarcoidosis is a multisystem disease with an unpredictable and sometimes fatal course while the underlying pathomechanism is still unclear. Reasons of the increasing hospitalization rate and mortality in the United States remain in dispute but incriminated are a number of distinct comorbidities and risk factors as well as the application of more aggressive therapeutic agents. Studies reflecting the recent development in central Europe are lacking. Our aim was to investigate the recent mortality and hospitalization rates as well as the underlying comorbidities of hospitalized sarcoidosis patients in Switzerland. In this longitudinal, nested case-control study, a nation-wide database provided by the Swiss Federal Office for Statistics enclosing every hospital entry covering the years 2002-2012 (n = 15,627,573) was analyzed. There were 8,385 cases with a diagnosis of sarcoidosis representing 0.054% (8,385 / 15,627,573) of all hospitalizations in Switzerland. These cases were compared with age- and sex-matched controls without the diagnosis of sarcoidosis. Hospitalization and mortality rates in Switzerland remained stable over the observed time period. Comorbidity analysis revealed that sarcoidosis patients had significantly higher medication-related comorbidities compared to matched controls, probably due to systemic corticosteroids and immunosuppressive therapy. Sarcoidosis patients were also more frequently re-hospitalized (median annual hospitalization rate 0.28 [IQR 0.15-0.65] vs. 0.19 [IQR 0.13-0.36] per year; p < 0.001), had a longer hospital stay (6 [IQR 2-13] vs. 4 [IQR 1-8] days; p < 0.001), had more comorbidities (4 [IQR 2-7] vs. 2 [IQR 1-5]; p < 0.001), and had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality (2.6% [95% CI 2.3%-2.9%] vs. 1.8% [95% CI 1.5%-2.1%] (p < 0.001). A worse outcome was observed among sarcoidosis patients having co-occurrence of associated respiratory diseases. Moreover, age was an important risk factor for re-hospitalization.

Excess mortality in women of reproductive age from low-income countries: a Swedish national register study.

PubMed

Esscher, Annika; Haglund, Bengt; Högberg, Ulf; Essén, Birgitta

2013-04-01

Cause-of-death statistics is widely used to monitor the health of a population. African immigrants have, in several European studies, shown to be at an increased risk of maternal death, but few studies have investigated cause-specific mortality rates in female immigrants. In this national study, based on the Swedish Cause of Death Register, we studied 27,957 women of reproductive age (aged 15-49 years) who died between 1988 and 2007. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person years and relative risks for death and underlying causes of death, grouped according to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, were calculated and compared between women born in Sweden and in low-, middle- and high-income countries. The total age-standardized mortality rate per 100,000 person years was significantly higher for women born in low-income (84.4) and high-income countries (83.7), but lower for women born in middle-income countries (57.5), as compared with Swedish-born women (68.1). The relative risk of dying from infectious disease was 15.0 (95% confidence interval 10.8-20.7) and diseases related to pregnancy was 6.6 (95% confidence interval 2.6-16.5) for women born in low-income countries, as compared to Swedish-born women. Women born in low-income countries are at the highest risk of dying during reproductive age in Sweden, with the largest discrepancy in mortality rates seen for infectious diseases and diseases related to pregnancy, a cause of death pattern similar to the one in their countries of birth. The World Bank classification of economies may be a useful tool in migration research.

Excess mortality in women of reproductive age from low-income countries: a Swedish national register study

PubMed Central

Haglund, Bengt; Högberg, Ulf; Essén, Birgitta

2013-01-01

Background: Cause-of-death statistics is widely used to monitor the health of a population. African immigrants have, in several European studies, shown to be at an increased risk of maternal death, but few studies have investigated cause-specific mortality rates in female immigrants. Methods: In this national study, based on the Swedish Cause of Death Register, we studied 27 957 women of reproductive age (aged 15–49 years) who died between 1988 and 2007. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 person years and relative risks for death and underlying causes of death, grouped according to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, were calculated and compared between women born in Sweden and in low-, middle- and high-income countries. Results: The total age-standardized mortality rate per 100 000 person years was significantly higher for women born in low-income (84.4) and high-income countries (83.7), but lower for women born in middle-income countries (57.5), as compared with Swedish-born women (68.1). The relative risk of dying from infectious disease was 15.0 (95% confidence interval 10.8–20.7) and diseases related to pregnancy was 6.6 (95% confidence interval 2.6–16.5) for women born in low-income countries, as compared to Swedish-born women. Conclusions: Women born in low-income countries are at the highest risk of dying during reproductive age in Sweden, with the largest discrepancy in mortality rates seen for infectious diseases and diseases related to pregnancy, a cause of death pattern similar to the one in their countries of birth. The World Bank classification of economies may be a useful tool in migration research. PMID:22850186

Failure to rescue and mortality following repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Waits, Seth A; Sheetz, Kyle H; Campbell, Darrell A; Ghaferi, Amir A; Englesbe, Michael J; Eliason, Jonathan L; Henke, Peter K

2014-04-01

Recently, failure to rescue (FTR; death following major complication) has been shown to be a primary driver of mortality in highly morbid operations. Establishing this relationship for open and endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms may be a critical first step in improving mortality following these procedures. We sought to examine the relative contribution of severe complications and FTR to variations in mortality rate. We examined endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) and open aortic repair (OAR; n = 3215) performed in 40 hospitals participating in the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative from 2007 to 2012. Hospitals were first divided into risk-adjusted mortality tertiles. We then determined rates of severe complications and FTR within each tertile. For EVAR, risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates varied significantly between the lowest and highest tertiles (0.07% vs 6.14%; P < .01). However, while major complication rates were almost identical (9.0 vs 9.8; P = NS), FTR rates were about 35 times greater in high-mortality hospitals (4.0% vs 33.3%). Similar associations with mortality, severe complications, and FTR were seen for OAR as well. The most common complications that led to FTR events were postoperative transfusion (OAR 29.8% vs EVAR 5.8%) and prolonged ventilation (OAR 18.2% vs EVAR 1.0%). The average number of severe complications per FTR event was 2.85 and 2.66 for OAR and EVAR, respectively. FTR appears to drive a large proportion of the variation in mortality associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. The exact mechanisms underlying this variation remain unknown. Nonetheless, FTR is influenced by the structural characteristics and safety culture related to the timely recognition and management of severe complications. Hospitals that are unable to effectively handle severe complications following EVAR or OAR require close scrutiny. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Mortality among blood donors seropositive and seronegative for Chagas disease (1996–2000) in São Paulo, Brazil: A death certificate linkage study

PubMed Central

Bierrenbach, Ana Luiza; Pereira Alencar, Airlane; Mendrone, Alfredo; Ferreira, João Eduardo; Custer, Brian; P. Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz; Cerdeira Sabino, Ester

2017-01-01

Background Individuals in the indeterminate phase of Chagas disease are considered to have mortality rates similar to those of the overall population. This study compares mortality rates among blood donors seropositive for Chagas disease and negative controls in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Methodology/principal findings This is a retrospective cohort study of blood donors from 1996 to 2000: 2842 seropositive and 5684 seronegative for Chagas disease. Death status was ascertained by performing probabilistic record linkage (RL) with the Brazil national mortality information system (SIM). RL was assessed in a previous validation study. Cox Regression was used to derive hazard ratios (HR), adjusting for confounders. RL identified 159 deaths among the 2842 seropositive blood donors (5.6%) and 103 deaths among the 5684 seronegative (1.8%). Out of the 159 deaths among seropositive donors, 26 had the 10th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) indicating Chagas disease as the underlying cause of death (B57.0/B57.5), 23 had ICD-10 codes (I42.0/I42.2/I47.0/I47.2/I49.0/I50.0/I50.1/ I50.9/I51.7) indicating cardiac abnormalities possibly related to Chagas disease listed as an underlying or associated cause of death, with the others having no mention of Chagas disease in part I of the death certificate. Donors seropositive for Chagas disease had a 2.3 times higher risk of death due to all causes (95% Confidence Interval (95% CI), 1.8–3.0) than seronegative donors. When considering deaths due to Chagas disease or those that had underlying causes of cardiac abnormalities related to Chagas disease, seropositive donors had a risk of death 17.9 (95% CI, 6.3–50.8) times greater than seronegative donors. Conclusions/significance There is an excess risk of death in donors seropositive blood for Chagas disease compared to seronegative donors. Chagas disease is an under-reported cause of death in the Brazilian mortality database. PMID:28545053

Mortality among blood donors seropositive and seronegative for Chagas disease (1996-2000) in São Paulo, Brazil: A death certificate linkage study.

PubMed

Capuani, Ligia; Bierrenbach, Ana Luiza; Pereira Alencar, Airlane; Mendrone, Alfredo; Ferreira, João Eduardo; Custer, Brian; P Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz; Cerdeira Sabino, Ester

2017-05-01

Individuals in the indeterminate phase of Chagas disease are considered to have mortality rates similar to those of the overall population. This study compares mortality rates among blood donors seropositive for Chagas disease and negative controls in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort study of blood donors from 1996 to 2000: 2842 seropositive and 5684 seronegative for Chagas disease. Death status was ascertained by performing probabilistic record linkage (RL) with the Brazil national mortality information system (SIM). RL was assessed in a previous validation study. Cox Regression was used to derive hazard ratios (HR), adjusting for confounders. RL identified 159 deaths among the 2842 seropositive blood donors (5.6%) and 103 deaths among the 5684 seronegative (1.8%). Out of the 159 deaths among seropositive donors, 26 had the 10th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) indicating Chagas disease as the underlying cause of death (B57.0/B57.5), 23 had ICD-10 codes (I42.0/I42.2/I47.0/I47.2/I49.0/I50.0/I50.1/ I50.9/I51.7) indicating cardiac abnormalities possibly related to Chagas disease listed as an underlying or associated cause of death, with the others having no mention of Chagas disease in part I of the death certificate. Donors seropositive for Chagas disease had a 2.3 times higher risk of death due to all causes (95% Confidence Interval (95% CI), 1.8-3.0) than seronegative donors. When considering deaths due to Chagas disease or those that had underlying causes of cardiac abnormalities related to Chagas disease, seropositive donors had a risk of death 17.9 (95% CI, 6.3-50.8) times greater than seronegative donors. There is an excess risk of death in donors seropositive blood for Chagas disease compared to seronegative donors. Chagas disease is an under-reported cause of death in the Brazilian mortality database.

Impact of Health Research Systems on Under-5 Mortality Rate: A Trend Analysis.

PubMed

Yazdizadeh, Bahareh; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Majdzadeh, Reza; Nikooee, Sima

2016-11-26

Between 1990 and 2015, under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) declined by 53%, from an estimated rate of 91 deaths per 1000 live births to 43, globally. The aim of this study was to determine the share of health research systems in this decrease alongside other influential factors. We used random effect regression models including the 'random intercept' and 'random intercept and random slope' models to analyze the panel data from 1990 to 2010. We selected the countries with U5MRs falling between the first and third quartiles in 1990. We used both the total articles (TA) and the number of child-specific articles (CSA) as a proxy of the health research system. In order to account for the impact of other factors, measles vaccination coverage (MVC) (as a proxy of health system performance), gross domestic product (GDP), human development index (HDI), and corruption perception index (CPI) (as proxies of development), were embedded in the model. Among all the models, 'the random intercept and random slope models' had lower residuals. The same variables of CSA, HDI, and time were significant and the coefficient of CSA was estimated at -0.17; meaning, with the addition of every 100 CSA, the rate of U5MR decreased by 17 per 1000 live births. Although the number of CSA has contributed to the reduction of U5MR, the amount of its contribution is negligible compared to the countries' development. We recommend entering different types of researches into the model separately in future research and including the variable of 'exchange between knowledge generator and user.' © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Trends in educational inequalities in premature mortality in Belgium between the 1990s and the 2000s: the contribution of specific causes of deaths.

PubMed

Renard, Françoise; Gadeyne, Sylvie; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Tafforeau, Jean; Deboosere, Patrick

2017-04-01

Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, a key public health objective may be supported by a careful monitoring and assessment of the contributions of specific causes of death to the global inequality. The 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses were linked with cause-of-death data, each yielding a study population of over 5 million individuals aged 25-64, followed up for 5 years. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) were computed by educational level (EL) and cause. Inequalities were measured through rate differences (RDs), rate ratios (RRs) and population attributable fractions (PAFs). We analysed changes in educational inequalities between the 1990s and the 2000s, and decomposed the PAF into the main causes of death. All-cause and avoidable ASMR decreased in all ELs and both sexes. Lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and suicide in men, and IHD, stroke, lung cancer and COPD in women had the highest impact on population mortality. RDs decreased in men but increased in women. RRs and PAFs increased in both sexes, albeit more in women. In men, the impact of lung cancer and COPD inequalities on population mortality decreased while that of suicide and IHD increased. In women, the impact of all causes except IHD increased. Absolute inequalities decreased in men while increasing in women; relative inequalities increased in both sexes. The PAFs decomposition revealed that targeting mortality inequalities from lung cancer, IHD, COPD in both sexes, suicide in men and stroke in women would have the largest impact at population level. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Mortality related to acute illness and injury in rural Uganda: task shifting to improve outcomes.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Stacey; Stolz, Uwe; Dreifuss, Bradley; Nelson, Sara W; Hammerstedt, Heather; Andinda, Jovita; Maling, Samuel; Bisanzo, Mark

2015-01-01

Due to the dual critical shortages of acute care and healthcare workers in resource-limited settings, many people suffer or die from conditions that could be easily treated if existing resources were used in a more timely and effective manner. In order to address this preventable morbidity and mortality, a novel emergency midlevel provider training program was developed in rural Uganda. This is the first study that assesses this unique application of a task-shifting model to acute care by evaluating the outcomes of 10,105 patients. Nurses participated in a two-year training program to become midlevel providers called Emergency Care Practitioners at a rural district hospital. This is a retrospective analysis of the Emergency Department's quality assurance database, including three-day follow-up data. Case fatality rates (CFRs) are reported as the percentage of cases with a specific diagnosis that died within three days of their Emergency Department visit. Overall, three-day mortality was 2.0%. The most common diagnoses of patients who died were malaria (n=60), pneumonia (n=51), malnutrition (n=21), and trauma (n=18). Overall and under-five CFRs were as follows: malaria, 2.0% and 1.9%; pneumonia, 5.5% and 4.1%; and trauma, 1.2% and 1.6%. Malnutrition-related fatality (all cases <18 years old) was 6.5% overall and 6.8% for under-fives. This study describes the outcomes of emergency patients treated by midlevel providers in a resource-limited setting. Our fatality rates are lower than previously published regional rates. These findings suggest this model of task-shifting can be successfully applied to acute care in order to address the shortage of emergency care services in similar settings as part of an integrated approach to health systems strengthening.

Neighborhood poverty rate and mortality in patients receiving critical care in the academic medical center setting.

PubMed

Zager, Sam; Mendu, Mallika L; Chang, Domingo; Bazick, Heidi S; Braun, Andrea B; Gibbons, Fiona K; Christopher, Kenneth B

2011-06-01

Poverty is associated with increased risk of chronic illness but its contribution to critical care outcome is not well defined. We performed a multicenter observational study of 38,917 patients, aged ≥ 18 years, who received critical care between 1997 and 2007. The patients were treated in two academic medical centers in Boston, Massachusetts. Data sources included 1990 US census and hospital administrative data. The exposure of interest was neighborhood poverty rate, categorized as < 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, 20% to 40% and > 40%. Neighborhood poverty rate is the percentage of residents below the federal poverty line. Census tracts were used as the geographic units of analysis. Logistic regression examined death by days 30, 90, and 365 post-critical care initiation and in-hospital mortality. Adjusted ORs were estimated by multivariable logistic regression models. Sensitivity analysis was performed for 1-year postdischarge mortality among patients discharged to home. Following multivariable adjustment, neighborhood poverty rate was not associated with all-cause 30-day mortality: 5% to 10% OR, 1.05 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14; P = .2); 10% to 20% OR, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.87-1.06; P = .5); 20% to 40% OR, 1.08 (95% CI, 0.96-1.22; P = .2); > 40% OR, 1.20 (95% CI, 0.90-1.60; P = .2); referent in each is < 5%. Similar nonsignificant associations were noted at 90-day and 365-day mortality post-critical care initiation and in-hospital mortality. Among patients discharged to home, neighborhood poverty rate was not associated with 1-year-postdischarge mortality. Our study suggests that there is no relationship between the neighborhood poverty rate and mortality up to 1 year following critical care at academic medical centers.

Reproductive biology of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) (Diptera: Psychodidae) under experimental conditions.

PubMed

Cárdenas, E; Ferro, C; Corredor, D; Martínez, O; Munstermann, L E

1999-12-01

Baseline biological growth data of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) were compared under two experimental conditions within insulated styrofoam chests and in standard laboratory incubators. The developmental time from egg to adult was 67 and 52 days, respectively. Based on cohorts of 100 females in each experiment, horizontal life tables were constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained under each of the two conditions: net rate of reproduction (23.5 and 18.0 females per cohort female), generation time (11.4 and 9.4 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.27 and 0.30), and finite rate of population increment (1.31 and 1.36). The reproductive value for each class age of the cohort females was calculated. The observed parameters were obtained under each experimental condition: net rate of reproduction (1.9 and 2.5 females per cohort female), generation time (11.7 and 9.6 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.05 and 0.09), and finite rate of population increment (1.06 and 1.10). Vertical life tables were elaborated and mortality was described for every generation in each cohort. In addition, for two successive generations, additive variance and heritability for fecundity were estimated.

Antibiotics for the treatment of Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium in children.

PubMed

Das, Jai K; Ali, Anum; Salam, Rehana A; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2013-01-01

Diarrhea is a major contributor to the burden of morbidity and mortality in children; it accounts for a median of 11% of all deaths among children aged less than 5 years, amounting to approximately 0.8 million deaths per year. Currently there is a dearth of literature exploring the effectiveness of antibiotics for diarrhea due to Cholera, Shigella and cryptosporidiosis in children. We reviewed the literature reporting the effect of antibiotics for the treatment of diarrhea due to Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium in children under five years. We used a standardized abstraction and grading format and performed meta-analyses to determine the effect of the treatment with various antibiotics on mortality and rates of clinical and bacteriological/parasitological failure. The CHERG Standard Rules were applied to determine the final effect of treatment with antibiotics on diarrhea morbidity and mortality. For Cholera; the evidence was weak to recommend any effect on mortality. For Shigella; there was no data on mortality; either all-cause or cause specific, hence we used clinical failure rates as a proxy for Shigella deaths and propose that treatment of Shigella dysentery with antibiotics can result in a 82% reduction in diarrhea mortality due to Shigella. For cryptosporidiosis; there was data on all-cause mortality but the evidence was weak hence we used clinical failure rates as a proxy for mortality to estimate that antimicrobial treatment of diarrhea due to cryptosporidiosis can result in a 54% reduction in mortality. There is evidence to recommend antibiotic use for reduction of morbidity and mortality due to Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium. We recommend that more clinical trials should be conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of first- and second- line drugs currently in use for treatment for diarrhea and dysentery in both developing and developed countries.

An Estimation of Mortality Risks among People Living with HIV in Karnataka State, India: Learnings from an Intensive HIV/AIDS Care and Support Programme

PubMed Central

Prakash, Ravi; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold; Halli, Shiva S.

2016-01-01

Background In Indian context, limited attempts have been made to estimate the mortality risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated the rates of mortality among PLHIV covered under an integrated HIV-prevention cum care and support programme implemented in Karnataka state, India, and attempted to identify the key programme components associated with the higher likelihood of their survival. Methods Retrospective programme data of 55,801 PLHIV registered with the Samastha programme implemented in Karnataka state during 2006–11 was used. Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to estimate the ten years expected survival probabilities and Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine the factors associated with risk of mortality among PLHIV. We also calculated mortality rates (per 1000 person-year) across selected demographic and clinical parameters. Results Of the total PLHIV registered with the programme, about nine percent died within the 5-years of programme period with an overall death rate of 38 per 1000 person-years. The mortality rate was higher among males, aged 18 and above, among illiterates, and those residing in rural areas. While the presence of co-infections such as Tuberculosis leads to higher mortality rate, adherence to ART was significantly associated with reduction in overall death rate. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that increase in CD4 cell counts and exposure to intensive care and support programme for at least two years can bring significant reduction in risk of death among PLHIV [(hazard ratio: 0.234; CI: 0.211–0.260) & (hazard ratio: 0.062; CI: 0.054–0.071), respectively] even after adjusting the effect of other socio-demographic, economic and health related confounders. Conclusion Study confirms that while residing in rural areas and presence of co-infection significantly increases the mortality risk among PLHIV, adherence to ART and improvement in CD4 counts led to significant reduction in their mortality risk. Longer exposure to the intervention contributed significantly to reduce mortality among PLHIV. PMID:27253974

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang

2016-08-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths year-1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year-1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, I A; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang

2016-01-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM 2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM 2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM 2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM 2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Temporal trends in patient characteristics and survival of intensive care admissions with sepsis: a multicenter analysis*.

PubMed

Dreiher, Jacob; Almog, Yaniv; Sprung, Charles L; Codish, Shlomi; Klein, Moti; Einav, Sharon; Bar-Lavie, Yaron; Singer, Pierre P; Nimrod, Adi; Sachs, Jeffrey; Talmor, Daniel; Friger, Michael; Greenberg, Dan; Olsfanger, David; Hersch, Moshe; Novack, Victor

2012-03-01

To estimate in-hospital, 1-yr, and long-term mortality and to assess time trends in incidence and outcomes of sepsis admissions in the intensive care unit. A population-based, multicenter, retrospective cohort study. Patients hospitalized with sepsis in the intensive care unit in seven general hospitals in Israel during 2002-2008. None. Survival data were collected and analyzed according to demographic and background clinical characteristics, as well as features of the sepsis episode, using Kaplan-Meier approach for long-term survival. A total of 5,155 patients were included in the cohort (median age: 70, 56.3% males; median Charlson comorbidity index: 4). The mean number of intensive care unit admissions per month increased over time, while no change in in-hospital mortality was observed. The proportion of patients surviving to hospital discharge was 43.9%. The 1-, 2-, 5-, and 8-yr survival rates were 33.0%, 29.8%, 23.3%, and 19.8%, respectively. Mortality was higher in older patients, patients with a higher Charlson comorbidity index, and those with multiorgan failure, and similar in males and females. One-year age-standardized mortality ratio was 21-fold higher than expected, based on the general population rates. Mortality following intensive care unit sepsis admission remains high and is correlated with underlying patients' characteristics, including age, comorbidities, and the number of failing organ systems.

Disease-related mortality among 21,609 Norwegian male military peacekeepers deployed to Lebanon between 1978 and 1998.

PubMed

Strand, Leif Aage; Martinsen, Jan Ivar; Borud, Einar Kristian

2016-10-01

Our study assessed disease-related mortality among Norwegian male military peacekeepers deployed to Lebanon during 1978-1998. A total of 21,609 peacekeepers were followed from start of deployment through 2013. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated based on national rates for the overall cohort, by length of time since first deployment to Lebanon, and for service during high- and low-conflict periods. Poisson regression was used to determine the effect of conflict exposure. In the overall cohort, a decreased risk was seen for all-cause mortality (1213 deaths, SMR = 0.85), mortality from neoplasms (SMR = 0.89), and from non-neoplastic diseases (SMR = 0.68). Disease-related mortality was lower during the first 5 years of follow-up, while mortality from external causes was elevated. After 5 years, mortality from neoplasms and external causes were similar to national rates, but mortality from non-neoplastic diseases remained lower. The high-conflict exposure group had a two-fold increased risk of mortality from non-neoplastic diseases (rate ratio = 2.33), including ischemic heart disease (rate ratio = 2.25) compared to the low-conflict exposure group. We found a "healthy soldier effect" for all-cause mortality and disease-related mortality, but for neoplasms, this effect disappeared after 5 years. Conflict exposure was positively correlated with increased risk of mortality from non-neoplastic diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Complications associated with the use of flow-diverting devices for cerebral aneurysms: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Geng; Su, Ming; Yin, Yan-Ling; Li, Ming-Hua

2017-06-01

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to review the literature on the use of flow-diverting devices (FDDs) to treat intracranial aneurysms (IAs) and to investigate the safety and complications related to FDD treatment for IAs by performing a meta-analysis of published studies. METHODS A systematic electronic database search was conducted using the Springer, EBSCO, PubMed, Medline, and Cochrane databases on all accessible articles published up to January 2016, with no restriction on the publication year. Abstracts, full-text manuscripts, and the reference lists of retrieved articles were analyzed. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the complication rates across studies. RESULTS Sixty studies were included, which involved retrospectively collected data on 3125 patients. The use of FDDs was associated with an overall complication rate of 17.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.6%-20.5%) and a low mortality rate of 2.8% (95% CI 1.2%-4.4%). The neurological morbidity rate was 4.5% (95% CI 3.2%-5.8%). No significant difference in the complication or mortality rate was observed between 2 commonly used devices (the Pipeline embolization device and the Silk flow-diverter device). A significantly higher overall complication rate was found in the case of ruptured IAs than in unruptured IA (odds ratio 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.3). CONCLUSIONS The use of FDDs in the treatment of IAs yielded satisfactory results with regard to complications and the mortality rate. The risk of complications should be considered when deciding on treatment with FDDs. Further studies on the mechanism underlying the occurrence of adverse events are required.

Trends in Aortic Valve Replacement Procedures Between 2009 and 2015: Has Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement Made a Difference?

PubMed

Culler, Steven D; Cohen, David J; Brown, Phillip P; Kugelmass, Aaron D; Reynolds, Matthew R; Ambrose, Karen; Schlosser, Michael L; Simon, April W; Katz, Marc R

2018-04-01

This study reports trends in volume and adverse events associated with isolated aortic valve procedures performed in Medicare beneficiaries between 2009 and 2015. This retrospective study used the annual fiscal year Medicare Provider Analysis and Review file to identify all Medicare beneficiaries undergoing an isolated aortic valve procedure. Outcome measures included three mortality rates and nine in-hospital adverse events. The final study population consisted of 233,660 hospitalizations. During the study period, Medicare beneficiaries undergoing an aortic valve procedure increased from 22,076 to 49,362, for an average annual growth rate of 14.45%. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries grew from 10.7 in 2012 to 41.1 in 2015. Overall, in-hospital mortality rates, cumulative 30-day mortality rates, and 90-day postdischarge mortality rates declined annually during the study period. However, the 90-day mortality rate for TAVR was nearly double the rate for the tissue surgical aortic valve replacement group. Nearly 68% of Medicare beneficiaries experienced at least one in-hospital adverse event during their index hospitalization. Medicare beneficiaries undergoing TAVR had the lowest observed adverse events rates among the aortic valve procedures in 2015. The total number of Medicare beneficiaries undergoing isolated aortic valve procedures increased from 47.5 to 88.9 per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries during the study period. Aortic valve procedures increased significantly during this study period primarily due to the increase in TAVR, with clinical outcomes improving as well. Although long-term outcomes of TAVR are still under investigation, these results are promising. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Ezeh, Osita Kingsley; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore; Dibley, Michael John; Hall, John Joseph; Page, Andrew Nicolas

2015-03-27

To identify common factors associated with post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria. A cross-sectional data of three Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) for the years 2003, 2008 and 2013 were used. A multistage, stratified, cluster random sampling method was used to gather information on 63,844 singleton live-born infants of the most recent birth of a mother within a 5-year period before each survey was examined using cox regression models. Postneonatal mortality (death between 1 and 11 months), infant mortality (death between birth and 11 months), child mortality (death between 12 and 59 months) and under-5 mortality (death between birth and 59 months). Multivariable analyses indicated that children born to mothers with no formal education was significantly associated with mortality across all four age ranges (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.66 for postneonatal; HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.84 for infant; HR=2.13, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.89 for child; HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.41 for under-5). Other significant factors included living in rural areas (HR=1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.89 for postneonatal; HR=1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.47 for infant; HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.99 for child; HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.50 for under-5), and poor households (HR=2.47, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.47 for postneonatal; HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.78 for infant; HR=1.72, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.49 for child; HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.76 for under-5). This study found that no formal education, poor households and living in rural areas increased the risk of postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality among Nigerian children. Community-based interventions for reducing under-5 deaths are needed and should target children born to mothers of low socioeconomic status. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Frequency, associated features, and burden of neurological disorders in older adult inpatients in Brazil: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Bacellar, Aroldo; Pedreira, Bruno B; Costa, Gersonita; Assis, Telma

2017-07-24

The burden of neurological disorders (NDs) in older adult inpatients is often underestimated. We studied diagnostic frequency and comorbidity of NDs among inpatients aged ≥60 years. We compared rates of hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and readmission with younger patient counterparts (aged 18-59 years) and older adult non-neurological patients. This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of inpatients in a tertiary care center in Brazil. We compiled data for all patients admitted between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010, and selected those aged ≥18 years for inclusion in the study. We collected data for inpatients under care of a clinical neurologist who were discharged with primary diagnoses of NDs or underlying acute clinical disorders, and data for complications in clinical or surgical inpatients. Patients who remained hospitalized for more than 9 days were categorized as having long LOS. Older adult inpatients with NDs (n = 798) represented 56% of all neurological inpatients aged ≥18 years (n = 1430), and 14% of all geriatric inpatients (n = 5587). The mean age of older adult inpatients was 75 ± 9.1 years. Women represented 55% of participants. The most common NDs were cerebrovascular diseases (51%), although multimorbidity was observed. Hospital mortality rate was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15-21) and readmission rate was 31% (95% CI, 28-35), with 40% of patients readmitted 1.8 ± 1.5 times. The long LOS rate was 51% and the median LOS was 9 days (interquartile interval, 1-20 days). In younger inpatients mortality rate was 1.4%, readmission rate was 34%, and long LOS rate was 14%. In older adult non-neurological inpatients, mortality rate was 22%, readmission rate was 49%, and long LOS rate was 30%. Older adult neurological inpatients had the highest long LOS rate of all patient groups, and a higher mortality rate than neurological patients aged 18-59 years. Readmissions were high in all groups studied, particularly among older adult non-neurological inpatients. Improved structures and concerted efforts are required in hospitals in Brazil to reduce burden of NDs in older adult patients.

Measles vaccination improves the equity of health outcomes: evidence from Bangladesh.

PubMed

Bishai, David; Koenig, Michael; Ali Khan, Mehrab

2003-05-01

This paper asks whether measles vaccination can reduce socioeconomic differentials in under five mortality rates (U5MR) in a setting characterized by extreme poverty and high levels of childhood mortality. Longitudinal cohort study based on quasi experimental design. Data come from the phased introduction of a measles vaccine intervention in Matlab, Bangladesh in 1982. There were 16 270 Bangladeshi children aged 9-60 months. The intervention cohort received measles vaccine. Socioeconomic differentials in U5MR between the lowest and highest socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles in a cohort of 8135 vaccinated children and a cohort of unvaccinated age matched controls. Mantel-Haenszel rate ratios for the lowest to highest SES quintile were computed. SES was measured by factor analysis of maternal schooling, land holdings, dwelling size, and number of rooms. The U5MR ratio of lowest SES to highest was 2.27 (95% CI=1.62-3.19) in the unvaccinated population and 1.42 (95%CI=0.94-2.15) in the vaccinated population. The difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated U5MR ratios was statistically significant (p<0.10) and robust across alternative measures of SES. Children from the poorest quintile were more than twice as likely to die as those from the least quintile in the absence of measles vaccination. Universal distribution of measles vaccination largely nullified SES related mortality differentials within a high mortality population of children. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perinatal mortality in twin pregnancy: an analysis of birth weight-specific mortality rates and adjusted mortality rates for birth weight distributions.

PubMed

Fabre, E; González de Agüero, R; de Agustin, J L; Pérez-Hiraldo, M P; Bescos, J L

1988-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare the fetal mortality rate (FMR), early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of twin and single births. It is based on a survey which was carried out in 22 Hospital Centers in Spain in 1980, and covered 1,956 twins born and 110,734 singletons born. The FMR in twins was 36.3/1000 and 8.8/1000 for singletons. The ENMR in twins was 36.1/1000 and 5.7/1000 for singletons. The PMR in twins was 71.1/1000 and 14.4/1000 for singletons. When birthweight-specific PMR in twin and singletons births are compared, there were no differences between the rates for groups 500-999 g and 1000-1499 g. For birthweight groups of 1500-1999 g (124.4 vs 283.8/1000) and 2000-2999 g (29.6 vs 73.2/1000) the rates for twins were about twice lower than those for single births. The PMR for 2500 g and over birthweight was about twice higher in twins than in singletons (12.5 vs 5.5/1000). After we adjusted for birthweight there was a difference in the FMR (12.6 vs 9.8/1000) and the PMR (19.1 vs 16.0/1000, and no difference in the ENMR between twins and singletons (5.9 vs 6.4/1000), indicating that most of the differences among crude rates are due to differences in distribution of birthweight.

Mortality among residents of shelters, rooming houses, and hotels in Canada: 11 year follow-up study

PubMed Central

Wilkins, Russell; Tjepkema, Michael; O’Campo, Patricia J; Dunn, James R

2009-01-01

Objective To examine mortality in a representative nationwide sample of homeless and marginally housed people living in shelters, rooming houses, and hotels. Design Follow-up study. Setting Canada 1991-2001. Participants 15 100 homeless and marginally housed people enumerated in 1991 census. Main outcome measures Age specific and age standardised mortality rates, remaining life expectancies at age 25, and probabilities of survival from age 25 to 75. Data were compared with data from the poorest and richest income fifths as well as with data for the entire cohort Results Of the homeless and marginally housed people, 3280 died. Mortality rates among these people were substantially higher than rates in the poorest income fifth, with the highest rate ratios seen at younger ages. Among those who were homeless or marginally housed, the probability of survival to age 75 was 32% (95% confidence interval 30% to 34%) in men and 60% (56% to 63%) in women. Remaining life expectancy at age 25 was 42 years (42 to 43) and 52 years (50 to 53), respectively. Compared with the entire cohort, mortality rate ratios for men and women, respectively, were 11.5 (8.8 to 15.0) and 9.2 (5.5 to 15.2) for drug related deaths, 6.4 (5.3 to 7.7) and 8.2 (5.0 to 13.4) for alcohol related deaths, 4.8 (3.9 to 5.9) and 3.8 (2.7 to 5.4) for mental disorders, and 2.3 (1.8 to 3.1) and 5.6 (3.2 to 9.6) for suicide. For both sexes, the largest differences in mortality rates were for smoking related diseases, ischaemic heart disease, and respiratory diseases. Conclusions Living in shelters, rooming houses, and hotels is associated with much higher mortality than expected on the basis of low income alone. Reducing the excessively high rates of premature mortality in this population would require interventions to address deaths related to smoking, alcohol, and drugs, and mental disorders and suicide, among other causes. PMID:19858533

Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

PubMed

Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

2016-04-01

There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality benefit. Delta inflation may explain the number of "negative" studies in this field of research.

Mortality trends and years of potential life lost from gastric cancer in Mexico, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Sánchez-Barriga, J J

2016-01-01

In 2013 in Mexico, gastric cancer (GC) was the third leading cause of death from cancer in individuals 20 years of age or older. GC remains a public health problem in Mexico due to its high mortality and low survival rates, and the significantly lower quality of life of patients with this condition. The aims of this study were to determine mortality trends nationwide, by state and socioeconomic region, and to determine rates of age-adjusted years of potential life lost due to GC, by state and socioeconomic region, within the period of 2000-2012. Mortality records associated with GC for 2000-2012 were obtained from the National Health Information System of the Mexican Department of Health. Codes from the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases corresponding to the basic cause of death from GC were identified. Mortality and age-adjusted years of potential life lost rates, by state and socioeconomic region, were also calculated. In Mexico, 69,107 individuals died from GC within the time frame of 2000-2012. The age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants decreased from 7.5 to 5.6. The male:female ratio was 1.15:1.0. Chiapas had the highest death rate from GC (9.2, 95% CI 8.2-10.3 [2000] and 8.2, 95% CI 7.3-9 [2012]), as well as regions 1, 2, and 5. Chiapas and socioeconomic region 1 had the highest rate of years of potential life lost. Using the world population age distribution as the standard, the age-adjusted mortality rate in Mexico per 100,000 inhabitants that died from GC decreased from 7.5 to 5.6 between 2000 and 2012. Chiapas and socioeconomic regions 1, 2, and 5 had the highest mortality from GC (Chiapas: 9.2, 95% CI 8.2-10.3 [2000] and 8.2, 95% CI 7.3-9 [2012], region 1: 5.5, 95% CI 5.2-5.9 [2000] and 5.3, 95% CI 4.9-5.7 [2012]; region 2: 5.3, 95% CI 5-5.6 [2000] and 5.4, 95% CI 5.1-5.8 [2012]; region 5: 6.1, 95% CI 5.6-6.6 [2000] and 4.6, 95% CI 4.2-5 [2012]). Chiapas and socioeconomic region 1 had the highest rate of years of potential life lost (Chiapas: 97.4 [2000] and 79.6 [2012] and region 1: 73.5 [2000] 65 [2012]). Copyright © 2016 Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Examining trends in type 2 diabetes incidence, prevalence and mortality in the UK between 2004 and 2014.

PubMed

Zghebi, Salwa S; Steinke, Douglas T; Carr, Matthew J; Rutter, Martin K; Emsley, Richard A; Ashcroft, Darren M

2017-11-01

Contemporary data describing type 2 diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality are limited. We aimed to (1) estimate annual incidence and prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes in the UK between 2004 and 2014, (2) examine relationships between observed rates with age, gender, socio-economic status and geographic region, and (3) assess how temporal changes in incidence and all-cause mortality rates influence changes in prevalence. Type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥16 years between January 2004 and December 2014 were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Up to 5 individuals without diabetes were matched to diabetes patients based on age, gender and the general practice. Annual incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were calculated per 10 000 person-years at risk (95% CI). Survival models compared mortality rates in patients with and without type 2 diabetes. Prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes increased from 3.21% (3.19; 3.22) in 2004 to 5.26% (5.24; 5.29) in 2014. Incidence rates remained stable, overall, throughout the study period. Higher incidence and prevalence rates were related to male gender and deprivation. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were associated with higher risk of mortality (Hazard ratio 1.26 [1.20; 1.32]). Mortality rates declined in patients with and without diabetes throughout the study period. The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in patients aged 16 to 34 years increased over time. The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the UK over the last decade is probably explained by patients living longer rather than by increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can Probiotics Reduce Diarrhea and Infant Mortality in Africa?: The Project of a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Del Piano, Mario; Coggiola, Francesco; Pane, Marco; Amoruso, Angela; Nicola, Stefania; Mogna, Luca

Diarrhea accounts for 9% of the mortality among children under 5 years of age worldwide, and it is significantly associated with malnutrition. Each year, diarrhea kills around 760,000 children under 5 years of age and most of these are in sub-Saharan Africa.In Uganda, the infant mortality rate of 58 per 1000 is unacceptably high, and the major contributors include malnutrition, diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, prematurity, sepsis, and newborn illnesses.There is an urgent need for intervention to prevent and control diarrheal diseases. Our open-label, randomized controlled study has the primary endpoint of reducing diarrhea and infectious diseases (number of episodes/severity) and the secondary endpoint of decreasing infant mortality. The trial is currently conducted in Luzira, a suburb of Kampala, the capital of Uganda, and in Gulu and Lira, in the north of Uganda.The study is projected to enroll 4000 babies (control=2000 and treatment=2000) who will be followed till 1 year of life. As controls, 2000 babies of the same community are planned to be considered.The probiotic product selected for the trial is composed of 3 designated microorganisms, namely Bifidobacterium breve BR03 (DSM 16604), B. breve B632 (DSM 24706), and Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. delbrueckii LDD01 (DSM 22106). The concentration of the 3 bacteria is 10 viable cells/strain/daily dose (5 drops). For a total sample of 4000 babies, the study has an 80% power at a 5% significance level.

The effects of price competition and reduced subsidies for uncompensated care on hospital mortality.

PubMed

Volpp, Kevin G M; Ketcham, Jonathan D; Epstein, Andrew J; Williams, Sankey V

2005-08-01

To determine whether hospital mortality rates changed in New Jersey after implementation of a law that changed hospital payment from a regulated system based on hospital cost to price competition with reduced subsidies for uncompensated care and whether changes in mortality rates were affected by hospital market conditions. State discharge data for New Jersey and New York from 1990 to 1996. Study Design. We used an interrupted time series design to compare risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates between states over time. We compared the effect sizes in markets with different levels of health maintenance organization penetration and hospital market concentration and tested the sensitivity of our results to different approaches to defining hospital markets. The study sample included all patients under age 65 admitted to New Jersey or New York hospitals with stroke, hip fracture, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, congestive heart failure, hip fracture, or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Mortality among patients in New Jersey improved less than in New York by 0.4 percentage points among the insured (p=.07) and 0.5 percentage points among the uninsured (p=.37). There was a relative increase in mortality for patients with AMI, congestive heart failure, and stroke, especially for uninsured patients with these conditions, but not for patients with the other four conditions we studied. Less competitive hospital markets were significantly associated with a relative decrease in mortality among insured patients. Market-based reforms may adversely affect mortality for some conditions but it appears the effects are not universal. Insured patients in less competitive markets fared better in the transition to price competition.

[Mortality and survival analysis of liver cancer in China].

PubMed

Zheng, Rongshou; Zuo, Tingting; Zeng, Hongmei; Zhang, Siwei; Chen, Wanqing

2015-09-01

Based on the cancer registry data to analyze the mortality and survival of liver cancer in China. Liver cancer data of 2011 were retrieved from the National Cancer Registry Database.Liver cancer deaths were estimated using age-specific rate by areas and gender according to the national population in 2011. Mortality data from 22 cancer registries during 2000-2011 were used to analyze the mortality trend, and data from 17 cancer registries during 2003-2005 were used for survival analysis. The estimates of liver cancer deaths were about 322 thousand in 2011 with a crude mortality rate of 23.93/10(5).There was an increasing trend of crude mortality rate of liver cancer during 2000-2011 in 22 Chinese cancer registries with an average annual percentage change of 0.7% (95%CI: 0.2%-1.2%), 1.1% in urban and 0.4% in rural areas. After age standardization with Segi's population, the mortality rate was significantly decreased, with an APC of -2.3%, -1.9% in urban and -2.2% in rural populations. The 5-year age standardized relative survival was 10.1% (95%CI: 9.5% to 10.7%), and the 1-, 3- and the 5-year observed survival rates were 27.2%, 12.7%, and 8.9%, respectively. Liver cancer is a major cancer threatening people's lives and health in China, and the liver cancer burden is still high.

Health disparities among the western, central and eastern rural regions of China after a decade of health promotion and disease prevention programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Xi-Fan; Tian, Xiang-Yang; Cheng, Yu-Lan; Feng, Zhan-Chun; Wang, Liang; Southerland, Jodi

2015-08-01

Health disparities between the western, central and eastern regions of rural China, and the impact of national health improvement policies and programming were assessed. A total of 400 counties were randomly sampled. ANOVA and Logistic regression modeling were employed to estimate differences in health outcomes and determinants. Significant differences were found between the western, central and eastern rural regions in community infrastructure and health outcomes. From 2000 to 2010, health indicators in rural China were improved significantly, and the infant mortality rate (IMR), maternal mortality rate (MMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) had fallen by 62.79%, 71.74% and 61.92%, respectively. Central rural China had the greatest decrease in IMR (65.05%); whereas, western rural China had the greatest reduction in MMR (72.99%) but smallest reduction in U5MR (57.36%). Despite these improvements, Logistic regression analysis showed regional differences in key health outcome indicators (odds ratios): IMR (central: 2.13; western: 5.31), U5MR (central: 2.25; western: 5.69), MMR (central: 1.94; western: 3.31), and prevalence of infectious diseases (central: 1.62; western: 3.58). The community infrastructure and health outcomes of the western and central rural regions of China have been improved markedly during the first decade of the 21st century. However, health disparities still exist across the three regions. National efforts to increase per capita income, community empowerment and mobilization, community infrastructure, capacity of rural health facilities, and health literacy would be effective policy options to attain health equity.

Association of long-term PM2.5 exposure with mortality using different air pollution exposure models: impacts in rural and urban California.

PubMed

Garcia, Cynthia A; Yap, Poh-Sin; Park, Hye-Youn; Weller, Barbara L

2016-01-01

Most PM2.5-associated mortality studies are not conducted in rural areas where mortality rates may differ when population characteristics, health care access, and PM2.5 composition differ. PM2.5-associated mortality was investigated in the elderly residing in rural-urban zip codes. Exposure (2000-2006) was estimated using different models and Poisson regression was performed using 2006 mortality data. PM2.5 models estimated comparable exposures, although subtle differences were observed in rate ratios (RR) within areas by health outcomes. Cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cardiopulmonary disease (CPD), mortality was significantly associated with rural, urban, and statewide chronic PM2.5 exposures. We observed larger effect sizes in RRs for CVD, CPD, and all-cause (AC) with similar sizes for IHD mortality in rural areas compared to urban areas. PM2.5 was significantly associated with AC mortality in rural areas and statewide; however, in urban areas, only the most restrictive exposure model showed an association. Given the results seen, future mortality studies should consider adjusting for differences with rural-urban variables.

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry G; Achia, Thomas N O

2015-10-01

Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Excess cause-specific mortality in in-patient-treated individuals with personality disorder: 25-year nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Björkenstam, Emma; Björkenstam, Charlotte; Holm, Herman; Gerdin, Bengt; Ekselius, Lisa

2015-10-01

Although personality disorders are associated with increased overall mortality, less is known about cause of death and personality type. To determine causes of mortality in ICD personality disorders. Based on data from Swedish nationwide registers, individuals admitted to hospital with a primary diagnosis of personality disorder between 1987 and 2011 were followed with respect to mortality until 31 December 2011. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals and underlying causes of death were calculated. All-cause SMRs were increased, overall and in all clusters, for natural as well as unnatural causes of death. The overall SMR was 6.1 in women and 5.0 in men, as high as previously reported for anorexia nervosa, with higher rates in cluster B and mixed/other personality disorders. The SMR for suicide was 34.5 in women and 16.0 in men for cluster B disorders. Somatic and psychiatric comorbidity increased SMRs. The SMR was substantially increased for all personality disorder clusters. Thus, there was an increased premature mortality risk for all personality disorders, irrespective of category. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Late Mortality and Causes of Death among Long-Term Survivors after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Atsuta, Yoshiko; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Nakasone, Hideki; Kurosawa, Saiko; Oshima, Kumi; Sakai, Rika; Ohashi, Kazuteru; Takahashi, Satoshi; Mori, Takehiko; Ozawa, Yukiyasu; Fukuda, Takahiro; Kanamori, Heiwa; Morishima, Yasuo; Kato, Koji; Yabe, Hiromasa; Sakamaki, Hisashi; Taniguchi, Shuichi; Yamashita, Takuya

2016-09-01

We sought to assess the late mortality risks and causes of death among long-term survivors of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). The cases of 11,047 relapse-free survivors of a first HCT at least 2 years after HCT were analyzed. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated and specific causes of death were compared with those of the Japanese population. Among relapse-free survivors at 2 years, overall survival percentages at 10 and 15 years were 87% and 83%, respectively. The overall risk of mortality was significantly higher compared with that of the general population. The risk of mortality was significantly higher from infection (SMR = 57.0), new hematologic malignancies (SMR = 2.2), other new malignancies (SMR = 3.0), respiratory causes (SMR = 109.3), gastrointestinal causes (SMR = 3.8), liver dysfunction (SMR = 6.1), genitourinary dysfunction (SMR = 17.6), and external or accidental causes (SMR = 2.3). The overall annual mortality rate showed a steep decrease from 2 to 5 years after HCT; however, the decrease rate slowed after 10 years but was still higher than that of the general population at 20 years after HCT. SMRs in the earlier period of 2 to 4 years after HCT and 5 years or longer after HCT were 16.1 and 7.4, respectively. Long-term survivors after allogeneic HCT are at higher risk of mortality from various causes other than the underlying disease that led to HCT. Screening and preventive measures should be given a central role in reducing the morbidity and mortality of HCT recipients on long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic performance of Emergency Severity Index (ESI) combined with qSOFA score.

PubMed

Kwak, Hyeongkyu; Suh, Gil Joon; Kim, Taegyun; Kwon, Woon Yong; Kim, Kyung Su; Jung, Yoon Sun; Ko, Jung-In; Shin, So Mi

2018-01-31

We conducted this study to investigate whether ESI combined with qSOFA score (ESI+qSOFA) predicts hospital outcome better than ESI alone in the emergency department (ED). This was a retrospective study for patients aged over 15years who visited an ED of a tertiary referral hospital from January 1st, 2015 to December 31st, 2015. We calculated and compared predictive performances of ESI alone and ESI+qSOFA for prespecified outcomes. The primary outcome was hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was composite outcome of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. We calculated in-hospital mortality rates by positive qSOFA in each subgroup divided according to ESI levels (1, 2, 3, 4+5). 43,748 patients were enrolled. The area under receiver-operating characteristics curves were higher in ESI+qSOFA than in ESI alone for both mortality and composite outcome (0.786 vs. 0.777, P<.001 for mortality; 0.778 vs. 0.774, P<.001 for composite outcome). In each subgroup divided by ESI levels, patients with positive qSOFA had significantly higher in-hospital mortality rate compared to those with negative qSOFA (20.4% vs. 14.7%, P=.117 in ESI level 1 subgroup; 11.3% vs. 2.7%, P=.001 in ESI level 2 subgroup; 2.3% vs. 0.4%, P<.001 in ESI level 3 subgroup; 0.0% vs. 0.0% in ESI level 4 or 5 subgroup). The prognostic performance of ESI+qSOFA for in-hospital mortality was significantly higher than that of ESI alone. Within each subgroup, patients with positive qSOFA had higher in-hospital mortality compared to those with negative qSOFA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey.

PubMed

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-04-01

Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival. Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups'). Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey

PubMed Central

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India’s slow progress in improving childhood survival. Methods : Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002—08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states (‘Empowered Action Groups’). Results : Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Conclusions: Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. PMID:27063607

Causes of death in rheumatoid arthritis: How do they compare to the general population?

PubMed

Widdifield, Jessica; Paterson, J Michael; Huang, Anjie; Bernatsky, Sasha

2018-03-07

To compare mortality rates, underlying causes of death, excess mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients relative to the general population. We studied an inception cohort of 87,114 Ontario RA patients and 348,456 age/sex/area-matched general population comparators over 2000 to 2013. All-cause, cause-specific, and excess mortality rates, mortality rate ratios (MRRs), and YPLL were estimated. A total of 11,778 (14% of) RA patients and 32,472 (9% of) comparators died during 508,385 and 1,769,365 person-years (PY) of follow-up, respectively, for corresponding mortality rates of 232 (95% CI 228, 236) and 184 (95% CI 182, 186) per 10,000 PYs. Leading causes of death in both groups were diseases of the circulatory system, cancer, and respiratory conditions. Increased mortality for all-cause and specific causes was observed in RA relative to the general population. MRRs were elevated for most causes of death. Age-specific mortality ratios illustrated a high excess mortality among RA patients under 45 years of age for respiratory disease and circulatory disease. RA patients lost 7,436 potential years of life per 10,000 persons, compared with 4,083 YPLL among those without RA. Mortality rates were increased in RA patients relative to the general population across most causes of death. The potential life years lost (before the age of 75) among RA patients was roughly double that among those without RA, reflecting higher rate ratios for most causes of death and RA patients dying at earlier ages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rate and cause of death in severe mental illness.

PubMed

Martin, Julie Langan; McLean, Gary; Park, John; Martin, Daniel J; Connolly, Moira; Mercer, Stewart W; Smith, Daniel J

2014-09-12

Socioeconomic status has important associations with disease-specific mortality in the general population. Although individuals with Severe Mental Illnesses (SMI) experience significant premature mortality, the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality in this group remains under investigated. We aimed to assess the impact of socioeconomic status on rate and cause of death in individuals with SMI (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) relative to the local (Glasgow) and wider (Scottish) populations. Cause and age of death during 2006-2010 inclusive for individuals with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder registered on the Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS) were obtained by linkage to the Scottish General Register Office (GRO). Rate and cause of death by socioeconomic status, measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), were compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations. Death rates were higher in people with SMI across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations, and persisted when suicide was excluded. Differences were largest in the most deprived quintile (794.6 per 10,000 population vs. 274.7 and 252.4 for Glasgow and Scotland respectively). Cause of death varied by socioeconomic status. For those living in the most deprived quintile, higher drug-related deaths occurred in those with SMI compared to local Glasgow and wider Scottish population rates (12.3% vs. 5.9%, p = <0.001 and 5.1% p = 0.002 respectively). A lower proportion of deaths due to cancer in those with SMI living in the most deprived quintile were also observed, relative to the local Glasgow and wider Scottish populations (12.3% vs. 25.1% p = 0.013 and 26.3% p = <0.001). The proportion of suicides was significantly higher in those with SMI living in the more affluent quintiles relative to Glasgow and Scotland (54.6% vs. 5.8%, p = <0.001 and 5.5%, p = <0.001). Excess mortality in those with SMI occurred across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations but was most marked in the most deprived quintiles when suicide was excluded as a cause of death. Further work assessing the impact of socioeconomic status on specific causes of premature mortality in SMI is needed.

Risk factors for postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

Ezeh, Osita Kingsley; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore; Dibley, Michael John; Hall, John Joseph; Page, Andrew Nicolas

2015-01-01

Objectives To identify common factors associated with post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality in Nigeria. Design, setting and participants A cross-sectional data of three Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) for the years 2003, 2008 and 2013 were used. A multistage, stratified, cluster random sampling method was used to gather information on 63 844 singleton live-born infants of the most recent birth of a mother within a 5-year period before each survey was examined using cox regression models. Main outcome measures Postneonatal mortality (death between 1 and 11 months), infant mortality (death between birth and 11 months), child mortality (death between 12 and 59 months) and under-5 mortality (death between birth and 59 months). Results Multivariable analyses indicated that children born to mothers with no formal education was significantly associated with mortality across all four age ranges (adjusted HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.66 for postneonatal; HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.84 for infant; HR=2.13, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.89 for child; HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.41 for under-5). Other significant factors included living in rural areas (HR=1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.89 for postneonatal; HR=1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.47 for infant; HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.99 for child; HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.50 for under-5), and poor households (HR=2.47, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.47 for postneonatal; HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.78 for infant; HR=1.72, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.49 for child; HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.76 for under-5). Conclusions This study found that no formal education, poor households and living in rural areas increased the risk of postneonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality among Nigerian children. Community-based interventions for reducing under-5 deaths are needed and should target children born to mothers of low socioeconomic status. PMID:25818271

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

PubMed Central

Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates. Methods We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared. Findings On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups. Conclusion A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality. PMID:27994280

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines.

PubMed

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980-2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated.

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Background Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Methodology Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980–2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. Findings National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. Conclusion In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated. PMID:26431409

Identification of genomic loci associated with resting heart rate and shared genetic predictors with all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Eppinga, Ruben N; Hagemeijer, Yanick; Burgess, Stephen; Hinds, David A; Stefansson, Kari; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; Munroe, Patricia B; Verweij, Niek; van der Harst, Pim

2016-12-01

Resting heart rate is a heritable trait correlated with life span. Little is known about the genetic contribution to resting heart rate and its relationship with mortality. We performed a genome-wide association discovery and replication analysis starting with 19.9 million genetic variants and studying up to 265,046 individuals to identify 64 loci associated with resting heart rate (P < 5 × 10 -8 ); 46 of these were novel. We then used the genetic variants identified to study the association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality. We observed that a genetically predicted resting heart rate increase of 5 beats per minute was associated with a 20% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.28, P = 8.20 × 10 -7 ) translating to a reduction in life expectancy of 2.9 years for males and 2.6 years for females. Our findings provide evidence for shared genetic predictors of resting heart rate and all-cause mortality.

Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel

2018-06-01

The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (<$40,000/year). I combined projected changes in income inequality with vital statistics data and past estimates of linkages between income inequality, income, and mortality. 29,689 (95% CI: 10,865-48,920) more deaths/year and 31,302 (95% CI: 11,455-51,577) fewer deaths/year from all causes are anticipated under the Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221-113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897-473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of the civil war in central Mozambique and evaluation of the intervention of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

PubMed

Garenne, M L; Coninx, R; Dupuy, C

1997-12-01

In October 1994, a retrospective study of mortality of children was conducted in Maringué, a district of central Mozambique. Estimates based on maternity histories of 1503 women aged 15-60 years revealed complex changes in the under-5 death rate. During the colonial period (1955-1974), mortality declined from 373 to 270 per 1000. During the civil war period (1975-1991), mortality increased rapidly to reach a peak of 473 per 1000 in 1986. It declined again thereafter and reached a plateau of 380 in 1991. A health intervention conducted by the International Red Cross Committee since 1992 further reduced mortality to 269 per 1000 in 1994. Most of the 1992-1994 decline was attributable to vaccinations, in particular measles and tetanus immunizations, and to Vitamin A supplementation.

Favorable mortality profile of naltrexone implants for opiate addiction.

PubMed

Reece, Albert Stuart

2010-01-01

Several reports express concern at the mortality associated with the use of oral naltrexone for opiate dependency. Registry controlled follow-up of patients treated with naltrexone implant and buprenorphine was performed. In the study, 255 naltrexone implant patients were followed for a mean (+/- standard deviation) of 5.22 +/- 1.87 years and 2,518 buprenorphine patients were followed for a mean (+/- standard deviation) of 3.19 +/- 1.61 years, accruing 1,332.22 and 8,030.02 patient-years of follow-up, respectively. The crude mortality rates were 3.00 and 5.35 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively, and the age standardized mortality rate ratio for naltrexone compared to buprenorphine was 0.676 (95% confidence interval = 0.014 to 1.338). Most sex, treatment group, and age comparisons significantly favored the naltrexone implant group. Mortality rates were shown to be comparable to, and intermediate between, published mortality rates of an age-standardized methadone treated cohort and the Australian population. These data suggest that the mortality rate from naltrexone implant is comparable to that of buprenorphine, methadone, and the Australian population.

Health effects of particulate air pollution and airborne desert dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Pozzer, A.; Giannadaki, D.; Fnais, M.

2013-12-01

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. In the past decades this increase has taken place at a particularly high pace in South and East Asia. We estimate the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and airborne desert dust (DU2.5) on regional and national scales (Giannadaki et al., 2013; Lelieveld et al., 2013). This is based on high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in relatively great detail. We apply an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global premature mortality by anthropogenic aerosols of 2.2 million/year (YLL ≈ 16 million/year) due to lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease. High mortality rates by PM2.5 are found in China, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia. Desert dust DU2.5 aerosols add about 0.4 million/year (YLL ≈ 3.6 million/year). Particularly significant mortality rates by DU2.5 occur in Pakistan, China and India. The estimated global mean per capita mortality caused by airborne particulates is about 0.1%/year (about two thirds of that caused by tobacco smoking). We show that the highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located. References: Giannadaki, D., A. Pozzer, and J. Lelieveld, Modeled global effects of airborne desert dust on air quality and premature mortality, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. (submitted), 2013. Lelieveld, J., C. Barlas, D. Giannadaki, and A. Pozzer, Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution by ozone and fine particulate matter, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7023-7037, 2013.

Evaluating the impact a proposed family planning model would have on maternal and infant mortality in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Rahmani, Ahmad Masoud; Wade, Benjamin; Riley, William

2015-01-01

This study aimed to assess the potential impact a proposed family planning model would have on reducing maternal and infant mortality in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has a high total fertility rate, high infant mortality rate, and high maternal mortality rate. Afghanistan also has tremendous socio-cultural barriers to and misconceptions about family planning services. We applied predictive statistical models to a proposed family planning model for Afghanistan to better understand the impact increased family planning can have on Afghanistan's maternal mortality rate and infant mortality rate. We further developed a sensitivity analysis that illustrates the number of maternal and infant deaths that can be averted over 5 years according to different increases in contraceptive prevalence rates. Incrementally increasing contraceptive prevalence rates in Afghanistan from 10% to 60% over the course of 5 years could prevent 11,653 maternal deaths and 317,084 infant deaths, a total of 328,737 maternal and infant deaths averted. Achieving goals in reducing maternal and infant mortality rates in Afghanistan requires a culturally relevant approach to family planning that will be supported by the population. The family planning model for Afghanistan presents such a solution and holds the potential to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among US youth: socioeconomic and rural-urban disparities and international patterns.

PubMed

Singh, Gopal K; Azuine, Romuladus E; Siahpush, Mohammad; Kogan, Michael D

2013-06-01

We analyzed international patterns and socioeconomic and rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from homicide, suicide, unintentional injuries, and HIV/AIDS among US youth aged 15-24 years. A county-level socioeconomic deprivation index and rural-urban continuum measure were linked to the 1999-2007 US mortality data. Mortality rates were calculated for each socioeconomic and rural-urban group. Poisson regression was used to derive adjusted relative risks of youth mortality by deprivation level and rural-urban residence. The USA has the highest youth homicide rate and 6th highest overall youth mortality rate in the industrialized world. Substantial socioeconomic and rural-urban gradients in youth mortality were observed within the USA. Compared to their most affluent counterparts, youth in the most deprived group had 1.9 times higher all-cause mortality, 8.0 times higher homicide mortality, 1.5 times higher unintentional-injury mortality, and 8.8 times higher HIV/AIDS mortality. Youth in rural areas had significantly higher mortality rates than their urban counterparts regardless of deprivation levels, with suicide and unintentional-injury mortality risks being 1.8 and 2.3 times larger in rural than in urban areas. However, youth in the most urbanized areas had at least 5.6 times higher risks of homicide and HIV/AIDS mortality than their rural counterparts. Disparities in mortality differed by race and sex. Socioeconomic deprivation and rural-urban continuum were independently related to disparities in youth mortality among all sex and racial/ethnic groups, although the impact of deprivation was considerably greater. The USA ranks poorly in all-cause mortality, youth homicide, and unintentional-injury mortality rates when compared with other industrialized countries.

Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: Age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality

PubMed Central

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-01-01

AIM: To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. RESULTS: In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening/night time shifts and/or during weekends. The observed seasonal variations in admissions were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The adjusted incidence rate, seasonal distribution and mortality rate was stable. PPU frequently presents outside regular work-hours. Increase in incidence and mortality occurs with older age. PMID:23372356

Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-01-21

To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening/night time shifts and/or during weekends. The observed seasonal variations in admissions were not statistically significant. The adjusted incidence rate, seasonal distribution and mortality rate was stable. PPU frequently presents outside regular work-hours. Increase in incidence and mortality occurs with older age.

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya;

Successful Reperfusion With Mechanical Thrombectomy Is Associated With Reduced Disability and Mortality in Patients With Pretreatment Diffusion-Weighted Imaging-Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score ≤6.

PubMed

Desilles, Jean-Philippe; Consoli, Arthuro; Redjem, Hocine; Coskun, Oguzhan; Ciccio, Gabriele; Smajda, Stanislas; Labreuche, Julien; Preda, Cristian; Ruiz Guerrero, Clara; Decroix, Jean-Pierre; Rodesch, Georges; Mazighi, Mikael; Blanc, Raphaël; Piotin, Michel; Lapergue, Bertrand

2017-04-01

In acute ischemic stroke patients, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS) is correlated with infarct volume and is an independent factor of functional outcome. Patients with pretreatment DWI-ASPECTS ≤6 were excluded or under-represented in the recent randomized mechanical thrombectomy trials. Our aim was to assess the impact of reperfusion in pretreatment DWI-ASPECTS ≤6 patients treated with mechanical thrombectomy. We analyzed data collected between January 2012 and August 2015 in a bicentric prospective clinical registry of consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients treated with mechanical thrombectomy. Every patient with a documented internal carotid artery or middle cerebral artery occlusion with pretreatment DWI-ASPECTS ≤6 was eligible for this study. The primary end point was a favorable outcome defined by a modified Rankin Scale score ≤2 at 90 days. Two hundred and eighteen patients with a DWI-ASPECTS ≤6 were included. Among them, 145 (66%) patients had successful reperfusion at the end of mechanical thrombectomy. Reperfused patients had an increased rate of favorable outcome (38.7% versus 17.4%; P =0.002) and a decreased rate of mortality at 3 months (22.5% versus 39.1%; P =0.013) compared with nonreperfused patients. The symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate was not different between the 2 groups (13.0% versus 14.1%; P =0.83). However, in patients with DWI-ASPECTS <5, favorable outcome was low (13.0% versus 9.5%; P =0.68) with a high mortality rate (45.7% versus 57.1%; P =0.38) with or without successful reperfusion. Successful reperfusion is associated with reduced mortality and disability in patients with a pretreatment DWI-ASPECTS ≤6. Further data from randomized studies are needed, particularly in patients with DWI-ASPECTS <5. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Girl-child marriage and its association with morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in a nationally-representative sample of Pakistan.

PubMed

Nasrullah, Muazzam; Zakar, Rubeena; Zakar, Muhammad Zakria; Krämer, Alexander

2014-03-01

To determine the relationship between child marriage (before age 18 years) and morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in Pakistan beyond those attributed to social vulnerabilities. Nationally-representative cross-sectional observational survey data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2006-2007 was limited to children from the past 5 years, reported by ever-married women aged 15-24 years (n = 2630 births of n = 2138 mothers) to identify differences in infectious diseases in past 2 weeks (diarrhea, acute respiratory infection [ARI], ARI with fever), under 5 years of age and infant mortality, and low birth weight by early (<18) vs adult (≥ 18) age at marriage. Associations between child marriage and mortality and morbidity of children under 5 years of age were assessed by calculating adjusted OR using logistic regression models after controlling for maternal and child demographics. Majority (74.5%) of births were from mothers aged <18 years. Marriage before age 18 years increased the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers (adjusted OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.18-2.14). Even though maternal child marriage was associated with infant mortality and mortality of children under 5 years of age in unadjusted models, association was lost in the adjusted models. We did not find a relation between girl-child marriage and low birth weight infants, and ARI. Girl-child marriage increases the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers. Further qualitative and prospective quantitative studies are needed to understand the factors that may drive child morbidity and mortality among those married as children vs adults in Pakistan. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Ebola virus disease in children during the 2014-2015 epidemic in Guinea: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Chérif, Mahamoud Sama; Koonrungsesomboon, Nut; Kassé, Diénaba; Cissé, Sékou Ditinn; Diallo, Saliou Bella; Chérif, Fatoumata; Camara, Facély; Koné, Alpha; Avenido, Eleonor Fundan; Diakité, Mandiou; Diallo, Mamadou Pathé; Le Gall, Edouard; Cissé, Mohamed; Karbwang, Juntra; Hirayama, Kenji

2017-06-01

The most recent epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) has resulted in more than 11,000 deaths in West Africa. It has threatened child health in the affected countries, including Guinea. This nationwide retrospective cohort study included all children under 20 years of age with laboratory-confirmed EVD in Guinea during the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak for analysis. Of 8,448 children with probable or suspected EVD, 695 cases were laboratory-confirmed EVD. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 62.9%. Pediatric patients with younger age had a significantly higher rate of death (adjusted OR = 0.995; 95%CI = 0.990-1.000; p = 0.046), with the highest CFR of 82.9% in children aged less than 5 years. Fever (91%), fatigue (87%), and gastrointestinal signs and symptoms (70%) were common clinical features on admission of the pediatric patients, while bleeding signs were not occurring often (24%). None of clinical features and epidemiologic risk factors for Ebola were associated with mortality outcome in our cohort study. EVD is a major threat to child health, especially among children under 5 years of age. To date, none of demographic and clinical features, except younger age, have been consistently shown to affect mortality outcome in children infected with Ebola virus. What is Known: • The 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic is the largest and most widespread outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in history, with more than 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. • During ongoing outbreak investigations, it is suggested that young children aged less than 5 years are particularly vulnerable and highly susceptible to death. What is New: • Demographic and clinical characteristics of the nationwide cohort of pediatric patients with laboratory-confirmed EVD in Guinea are reported. • The results confirm the high rate of death among EVD children under 5 years of age, while none of demographic and clinical features, except younger age, could serve as a predictor of mortality outcome in pediatric patients with EVD.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013.

PubMed

Haagsma, Juanita A; Graetz, Nicholas; Bolliger, Ian; Naghavi, Mohsen; Higashi, Hideki; Mullany, Erin C; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Adofo, Koranteng; Alsharif, Ubai; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Barrero, Lope H; Bekele, Tolesa; Bose, Dipan; Brazinova, Alexandra; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Derrett, Sarah; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Petrovich Ermakov, Sergey; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gosselin, Richard A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hijar, Martha; Hu, Guoqing; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jiang, Guohong; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kulkarni, Chanda; Lecky, Fiona E; Leung, Ricky; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Majdan, Marek; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matzopoulos, Richard; Meaney, Peter A; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles N; Norman, Rosana E; Orozco, Ricardo; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Refaat, Amany; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roy, Nobhojit; Schwebel, David C; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Skirbekk, Vegard; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Stein, Dan J; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Theadom, Alice M; Tran, Bach Xuan; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vavilala, Monica S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo

2016-02-01

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Improved microsurgical creation of venous pouch arterial bifurcation aneurysms in rabbits.

PubMed

Sherif, C; Marbacher, S; Erhardt, S; Fandino, J

2011-01-01

The choice of the experimental aneurysm model is essential for valid embolization-device evaluations. So far, the use of the rabbit venous pouch arterial bifurcation aneurysm model has been limited by demanding microsurgery, low aneurysm patency rates, and high mortality. This study aimed to facilitate microsurgery and to reduce mortality by optimized peri-/postoperative management. Aneurysms were created in 16 New Zealand white rabbits under general intravenous anesthesia. Using modified microsurgical techniques, we sutured a jugular vein pouch into a bifurcation created between both CCAs. Aggressive anticoagulation (intraoperative intravenous: 1000-IU heparin, 10-mg acetylsalicylic acid/kg; postoperative subcutaneous: 14 days, 250-IU/kg /day heparin) and prolonged postoperative anesthesia (fentanyl patches: 12.5 μg/h for 72 hours) were applied. Angiographic characteristics of created experimental aneurysms were assessed. The reduced number of interrupted sutures and aggressive anticoagulation caused no intra-/postoperative bleeding, resulting in 0% mortality. Four weeks postoperation, angiography showed patency in 14 of 16 aneurysms (87.5%) and Ohshima type B bifurcation geometry. Mean values of parent-artery diameters (2.3 mm), aneurysm lengths (7.9 mm), and neck widths (4.1 mm) resulted in a mean 1.9 aspect ratio. Compared with historical controls, the use of modified microsurgical techniques, aggressive anticoagulation, and anesthesia resulted in higher aneurysm patency rates and lower mortality rates in the venous pouch arterial bifurcation aneurysm model. Gross morphologic features of these aneurysms were similar to those of most human intracranial aneurysms.

Assessment of the impact of the change from manual to automated coding on mortality statistics in Australia.

PubMed

McKenzie, Kirsten; Walker, Sue; Tong, Shilu

It remains unclear whether the change from a manual to an automated coding system (ACS) for deaths has significantly affected the consistency of Australian mortality data. The underlying causes of 34,000 deaths registered in 1997 in Australia were dual coded, in ICD-9 manually, and by using an automated computer coding program. The diseases most affected by the change from manual to ACS were senile/presenile dementia, and pneumonia. The most common disease to which a manually assigned underlying cause of senile dementia was coded with ACS was unspecified psychoses (37.2%). Only 12.5% of codes assigned by ACS as senile dementia were coded the same by manual coders. This study indicates some important differences in mortality rates when comparing mortality data that have been coded manually with those coded using an automated computer coding program. These differences may be related to both the different interpretation of ICD coding rules between manual and automated coding, and different co-morbidities or co-existing conditions among demographic groups.

Evaluation of the INTERGROWTH-21st project newborn standard for use in Canada.

PubMed

Liu, Shiliang; Metcalfe, Amy; León, Juan Andrés; Sauve, Reg; Kramer, Michael S; Joseph, K S

2017-01-01

To evaluate the performance of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project newborn standard vis-a-vis the current Canadian birth weight-for-gestational age reference. All hospital-based singleton live births in Canada (excluding Quebec) between 2002 and 2012 with a gestational age between 33 and 42 weeks were included using information obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Small- and large-for gestational age centile categories of the INTERGROWTH standard and Canadian reference were contrasted in terms of frequency distributions and rates of composite neonatal morbidity/mortality. Among 2,753,817 singleton live births, 0.87% and 9.63% were <3rd centile and >97th centile, respectively, of the INTERGROWTH standard, while 2.27% and 3.55% were <3rd centile and >97th centile, respectively, of the Canadian reference. Infants <3rd centile and >97th centile had a composite neonatal morbidity/mortality rate of 46.4 and 12.9 per 1,000 live births, respectively, under the INTERGROWTH standard and 30.9 and 16.6 per 1,000 live births, respectively, under the Canadian reference. The INTERGROWTH standard <3rd centile and >97th centile categories had detection rates of 3.14% and 9.74%, respectively, for composite neonatal morbidity/ mortality compared with 5.48% and 4.60%, respectively for the Canadian reference. Similar patterns were evident in high- and low-risk subpopulations. The centile distribution of the INTERGROWTH newborn standard is left shifted compared with the Canadian reference, and this shift alters the frequencies and neonatal morbidity/mortality rates associated with specific centile categories. Further outcome-based research is required for defining abnormal growth categories before the INTERGROWTH newborn standard can be used.

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data.

PubMed

Arku, Raphael E; Bennett, James E; Castro, Marcia C; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E; Ware, James H; Nyarko, Philomena; Spengler, John D; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Ezzati, Majid

2016-06-01

Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality-and its social and environmental risk factors-at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. We used 10% random samples of Ghana's 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana's 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana's districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Revisiting Hemicraniectomy: Late Decompressive Hemicraniectomy for Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke and the Role of Infarct Growth Rate

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Naveed; Salam, Abdul; Alboudi, Ayman; Kamran, Kainat; Ahmed, Arsalan; Khan, Rabia A.; Mirza, Mohsin K.; Inshasi, Jihad

2017-01-01

Objective and Methods. The outcome in late decompressive hemicraniectomy in malignant middle cerebral artery stroke and the optimal timings of surgery has not been addressed by the randomized trials and pooled analysis. Retrospective, multicenter, cross-sectional study to measure outcome following DHC under 48 or over 48 hours using the modified Rankin scale [mRS] and dichotomized as favorable ≤4 or unfavorable >4 at three months. Results. In total, 137 patients underwent DHC. Functional outcome analyzed as mRS 0–4 versus mRS 5-6 showed no difference in this split between early and late operated on patients [P = 0.140] and mortality [P = 0.975]. Multivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 55 years, MCA with additional infarction, septum pellucidum deviation ≥1 cm, and uncal herniation were independent predictors of poor functional outcome at three months. In the “best” multivariate model, second infarct growth rate [IGR2] >7.5 ml/hr, MCA with additional infarction, and patients with temporal lobe involvement were independently associated with surgery under 48 hours. Both first infarct growth rate [IGR1] and second infarct growth rate [IGR2] were nearly double [P < 0.001] in patients with early surgery [under 48 hours]. Conclusions. The outcome and mortality in malignant middle cerebral artery stroke patients operated on over 48 hours of stroke onset were comparable to those of patients operated on less than 48 hours after stroke onset. Our data identifies IGR, temporal lobe involvement, and middle cerebral artery with additional infarct as independent predictors for early surgery. PMID:28409051

Revisiting Hemicraniectomy: Late Decompressive Hemicraniectomy for Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke and the Role of Infarct Growth Rate.

PubMed

Kamran, Saadat; Akhtar, Naveed; Salam, Abdul; Alboudi, Ayman; Kamran, Kainat; Ahmed, Arsalan; Khan, Rabia A; Mirza, Mohsin K; Inshasi, Jihad; Shuaib, Ashfaq

2017-01-01

Objective and Methods. The outcome in late decompressive hemicraniectomy in malignant middle cerebral artery stroke and the optimal timings of surgery has not been addressed by the randomized trials and pooled analysis. Retrospective, multicenter, cross-sectional study to measure outcome following DHC under 48 or over 48 hours using the modified Rankin scale [mRS] and dichotomized as favorable ≤4 or unfavorable >4 at three months. Results. In total, 137 patients underwent DHC. Functional outcome analyzed as mRS 0-4 versus mRS 5-6 showed no difference in this split between early and late operated on patients [ P = 0.140] and mortality [ P = 0.975]. Multivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 55 years, MCA with additional infarction, septum pellucidum deviation ≥1 cm, and uncal herniation were independent predictors of poor functional outcome at three months. In the "best" multivariate model, second infarct growth rate [IGR2] >7.5 ml/hr, MCA with additional infarction, and patients with temporal lobe involvement were independently associated with surgery under 48 hours. Both first infarct growth rate [IGR1] and second infarct growth rate [IGR2] were nearly double [ P < 0.001] in patients with early surgery [under 48 hours]. Conclusions. The outcome and mortality in malignant middle cerebral artery stroke patients operated on over 48 hours of stroke onset were comparable to those of patients operated on less than 48 hours after stroke onset. Our data identifies IGR, temporal lobe involvement, and middle cerebral artery with additional infarct as independent predictors for early surgery.

Surgical treatment for elderly patients with secondary spontaneous pneumothorax.

PubMed

Igai, Hitoshi; Kamiyoshihara, Mitsuhiro; Ibe, Takashi; Kawatani, Natsuko; Shimizu, Kimihiro

2016-05-01

Our objective was to evaluate the validity of surgery for secondary spontaneous pneumothorax (SSP) by comparison with other treatments or with perioperative results for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP). Between January 2009 and March 2015, 144 patients with SSP, aged 60 years or over, were treated in our institution. We reviewed the patients' characteristics, perioperative results, and relapse rate. Treatment to arrest air-leakage included surgery (n = 79), drainage only (n = 30), and pleurodesis (n = 35), and the pneumothorax relapse rate or mortality before discharge was compared for each. Additionally, we compared the perioperative results or relapse rate between SSP (n = 70) and PSP (n = 70) in patients who underwent 3-port thoracoscopic surgery. There was a significant difference in the relapse rate between the surgery and non-surgery groups (5.3 vs. 27.4 %, p = 0.0006). However, no significant difference in mortality before discharge was determined (p = 0.66). Significant differences were identified between the SSP and PSP groups for operation time, duration of chest drainage, and the length of postoperative hospitalization, and the postoperative morbidity were greater in the SSP group (p < 0.0001 for all). However, there was no significant difference in postoperative 30-day mortality or the relapse rate (p = 0.5, p = 0.68, respectively). Surgical treatment under general anesthesia for SSP is effective for arresting persistent air leaks or avoiding pneumothorax relapse, compared with drainage or pleurodesis, and is feasible if the appropriate perioperative management is performed.

Use of verbal autopsy to determine mortality patterns in an urban slum in Kolkata, India.

PubMed

Kanungo, Suman; Tsuzuki, Ataru; Deen, Jacqueline L; Lopez, Anna Lena; Rajendran, Krisnan; Manna, Byomkesh; Sur, Dipika; Kim, Deok Ryun; Gupta, Vinay Kumar; Ochiai, R Leon; Ali, Mohammad; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Bhattacharya, Sujit K; Clemens, John D

2010-09-01

To define mortality patterns in an urban slum in Kolkata, India, in the context of a cholera and typhoid fever project. In a well-defined population that was under surveillance for 18 months, we followed a dynamic cohort of 63 788 residents whose households were visited monthly by community health workers to identify deaths. Trained physicians performed verbal autopsies and experienced senior physicians assigned the primary cause of death according to the International classification of diseases, 10th edition. We tabulated causes of death in accordance with Global Burden of Disease 2000 categories and assessed overall and cause-specific mortality rates per age group and gender. During 87 921 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 544 deaths. This gave an overall mortality rate of 6.2 per 1000 person-years. We assigned a cause to 89% (482/544) of the deaths. The leading causes of death, in descending order, were cardiovascular diseases (especially among adults aged over 40 years), cancer, respiratory ailments and digestive disorders. Most deaths in children under 5 years of age were caused by tuberculosis, respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Although the most common causes of death in children were infectious, non-communicable diseases were predominant among adults. There is a need for continuing interventions against infectious diseases in addition to new and innovative strategies to combat non-infectious conditions.

Income inequality and socioeconomic gradients in mortality.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Richard G; Pickett, Kate E

2008-04-01

We investigated whether the processes underlying the association between income inequality and population health are related to those responsible for the socioeconomic gradient in health and whether health disparities are smaller when income differences are narrower. We used multilevel models in a regression analysis of 10 age- and cause-specific US county mortality rates on county median household incomes and on state income inequality. We assessed whether mortality rates more closely related to county income were also more closely related to state income inequality. We also compared mortality gradients in more- and less-equal states. Mortality rates more strongly associated with county income were more strongly associated with state income inequality: across all mortality rates, r= -0.81; P=.004. The effect of state income inequality on the socioeconomic gradient in health varied by cause of death, but greater equality usually benefited both wealthier and poorer counties. Although mortality rates with steep socioeconomic gradients were more sensitive to income distribution than were rates with flatter gradients, narrower income differences benefit people in both wealthy and poor areas and may, paradoxically, do little to reduce health disparities.

Avian growth and development rates and age-specific mortality: the roles of nest predation and adult mortality.

PubMed

Remes, V

2007-01-01

Previous studies have shown that avian growth and development covary with juvenile mortality. Juveniles of birds under strong nest predation pressure grow rapidly, have short incubation and nestling periods, and leave the nest at low body mass. Life-history theory predicts that parental investment increases with adult mortality rate. Thus, developmental traits that depend on the parental effort exerted (pre- and postnatal growth rate) should scale positively with adult mortality, in contrast to those that do not have a direct relationship with parental investment (timing of developmental events, e.g. nest leaving). I tested this prediction on a sample of 84 North American songbirds. Nestling growth rate scaled positively and incubation period duration negatively with annual adult mortality rates even when controlled for nest predation and other covariates, including phylogeny. On the contrary, neither the duration of the nestling period nor body mass at fledging showed any relationship. Proximate mechanisms generating the relationship of pre- and postnatal growth rates to adult mortality may include increased feeding, nest attentiveness during incubation and/or allocation of hormones, and deserve further attention.

Change in child mortality patterns after injuries in Sweden: a nationwide 14-year study.

PubMed

Bäckström, D; Steinvall, I; Sjöberg, F

2017-06-01

Sweden has one of the world's lowest child injury mortality rates, but injuries are still the leading cause of death among children. Child injury mortality in the country has been declining, but this decline seems to decrease recently. Our objective was therefore to further examine changes in the mortality of children's death from injury over time and to assess the contribution of various effects on mortality. The underlying hypothesis for this investigation is that the incidence of lethal injuries in children, still is decreasing and that this may be sex specific. We studied all deaths from injury in Sweden under-18-year-olds during the 14 years 1999-2012. We identified those aged under 18 whose underlying cause of death was recorded as International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis from V01 to X39 in the Swedish cause of death, where all dead citizens are registered. From the 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2012, 1213 children under the age of 18 died of injuries in Sweden. The incidence declined during this period (r = -0.606, p = 0.02) to 3.3 deaths/100,000 children-years (95 % CI 2.6-4.2). Death from unintentional injury was more common than that after intentional injury (p < 0.0001). There was a reduction in the incidence of unintentional injuries during the study period (r = -0.757, p = 0.03). The most common causes of death were injury to the brain (n = 337, 41 %), followed by drowning (n = 109, 13 %). The number of deaths after intentional injury increased (r = 0.585, p = 0.03) and at the end of the period was 1.5 deaths/100,000 children-years. The most common causes of death after intentional injuries were asphyxia (n = 177, 45 %), followed by injury to the brain (n = 76, 19 %). Mortality patterns in injured children in Sweden have changed from being dominated by unintentional injuries to a more equal distribution between unintentional and intentional injuries as well as between sexes and the overall rate has declined further. These findings are important as they might contribute to the preventive work that is being done to further reduce mortality in injured children.

Gray wolf mortality patterns in Wisconsin from 1979 to 2012.

PubMed

Treves, Adrian; Langenberg, Julia A; López-Bao, José V; Rabenhorst, Mark F

2017-02-08

Starting in the 1970s, many populations of large-bodied mammalian carnivores began to recover from centuries of human-caused eradication and habitat destruction. The recovery of several such populations has since slowed or reversed due to mortality caused by humans. Illegal killing (poaching) is a primary cause of death in many carnivore populations. Law enforcement agencies face difficulties in preventing poaching and scientists face challenges in measuring it. Both challenges are exacerbated when evidence is concealed or ignored. We present data on deaths of 937 Wisconsin gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) from October 1979 to April 2012 during a period in which wolves were recolonizing historic range mainly under federal government protection. We found and partially remedied sampling and measurement biases in the source data by reexamining necropsy reports and reconstructing the numbers and causes of some wolf deaths that were never reported. From 431 deaths and disappearances of radiocollared wolves aged > 7.5 months, we estimated human causes accounted for two-thirds of reported and reconstructed deaths, including poaching in 39-45%, vehicle collisions in 13%, legal killing by state agents in 6%, and nonhuman causes in 36-42%. Our estimate of poaching remained an underestimate because of persistent sources of uncertainty and systematic underreporting. Unreported deaths accounted for over two-thirds of all mortality annually among wolves > 7.5 months old. One-half of all poached wolves went unreported, or > 80% of poached wolves not being monitored by radiotelemetry went unreported. The annual mortality rate averaged 18% ± 10% for monitored wolves but 47% ± 19% for unmonitored wolves. That difference appeared to be due largely to radiocollaring being concentrated in the core areas of wolf range, as well as higher rates of human-caused mortality in the periphery of wolf range. We detected an average 4% decline in wolf population growth in the last 5 years of the study. Because our estimates of poaching risk and overall mortality rate exceeded official estimates after 2012, we present all data for transparency and replication. More recent additions of public hunting quotas after 2012 appear unsustainable without effective curtailment of poaching. Effective antipoaching enforcement will require more accurate estimates of poaching rate, location, and timing than currently available. Independent scientific review of methods and data will improve antipoaching policies for large carnivore conservation, especially for controversial species facing high levels of human-induced mortality.

A population model for a long-lived, resprouting chaparral shrub: Adenostoma fasciculatum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Rundel, Philip W.

1986-01-01

Extensive stands of Adenostoma fasciculatum H.&A. (chamise) in the chaparral of California are periodically rejuvenated by fire. A population model based on size-specific demographic characteristics (thinning and fire-caused mortality) was developed to generate probable age distributions within size classes and survivorship curves for typical stands. The model was modified to assess the long term effects of different mortality rates on age distributions. Under observed mean mortality rates (28.7%), model output suggests some shrubs can survive more than 23 fires. A 10% increase in mortality rate by size class slightly shortened the survivorship curve, while a 10% decrease in mortality rate by size class greatly elongated the curve. This approach may be applicable to other long-lived plant species with complex life histories.

Mortality risk during and after opioid substitution treatment: systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PubMed

Sordo, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Bravo, Maria J; Indave, B Iciar; Degenhardt, Louisa; Wiessing, Lucas; Ferri, Marica; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2017-04-26

Objective  To compare the risk for all cause and overdose mortality in people with opioid dependence during and after substitution treatment with methadone or buprenorphine and to characterise trends in risk of mortality after initiation and cessation of treatment. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources  Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and LILACS to September 2016. Study selection  Prospective or retrospective cohort studies in people with opioid dependence that reported deaths from all causes or overdose during follow-up periods in and out of opioid substitution treatment with methadone or buprenorphine. Data extraction and synthesis  Two independent reviewers performed data extraction and assessed study quality. Mortality rates in and out of treatment were jointly combined across methadone or buprenorphine cohorts by using multivariate random effects meta-analysis. Results  There were 19 eligible cohorts, following 122 885 people treated with methadone over 1.3-13.9 years and 15 831 people treated with buprenorphine over 1.1-4.5 years. Pooled all cause mortality rates were 11.3 and 36.1 per 1000 person years in and out of methadone treatment (unadjusted out-to-in rate ratio 3.20, 95% confidence interval 2.65 to 3.86) and reduced to 4.3 and 9.5 in and out of buprenorphine treatment (2.20, 1.34 to 3.61). In pooled trend analysis, all cause mortality dropped sharply over the first four weeks of methadone treatment and decreased gradually two weeks after leaving treatment. All cause mortality remained stable during induction and remaining time on buprenorphine treatment. Overdose mortality evolved similarly, with pooled overdose mortality rates of 2.6 and 12.7 per 1000 person years in and out of methadone treatment (unadjusted out-to-in rate ratio 4.80, 2.90 to 7.96) and 1.4 and 4.6 in and out of buprenorphine treatment. Conclusions  Retention in methadone and buprenorphine treatment is associated with substantial reductions in the risk for all cause and overdose mortality in people dependent on opioids. The induction phase onto methadone treatment and the time immediately after leaving treatment with both drugs are periods of particularly increased mortality risk, which should be dealt with by both public health and clinical strategies to mitigate such risk. These findings are potentially important, but further research must be conducted to properly account for potential confounding and selection bias in comparisons of mortality risk between opioid substitution treatments, as well as throughout periods in and out of each treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Influenza-associated Deaths in Tropical Singapore

PubMed Central

Ma, Stefan; Ling, Ai Ee; Chew, Suok Kai

2006-01-01

We used a regression model to examine the impact of influenza on death rates in tropical Singapore for the period 1996–2003. Influenza A (H3N2) was the predominant circulating influenza virus subtype, with consistently significant and robust effect on mortality rates. Influenza was associated with an annual death rate from all causes, from underlying pneumonia and influenza, and from underlying circulatory and respiratory conditions of 14.8 (95% confidence interval 9.8–19.8), 2.9 (1.0–5.0), and 11.9 (8.3–15.7) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. These results are comparable with observations in the United States and subtropical Hong Kong. An estimated 6.5% of underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths were attributable to influenza. The proportion of influenza-associated deaths was 11.3 times higher in persons age >65 years than in the general population. Our findings support the need for influenza surveillance and annual influenza vaccination for at-risk populations in tropical countries. PMID:16494727

Effects of prenatal micronutrient and early food supplementation on maternal hemoglobin, birth weight, and infant mortality among children in Bangladesh: the MINIMat randomized trial.

PubMed

Persson, Lars Åke; Arifeen, Shams; Ekström, Eva-Charlotte; Rasmussen, Kathleen M; Frongillo, Edward A; Yunus, Md

2012-05-16

Nutritional insult in fetal life and small size at birth are common in low-income countries and are associated with serious health consequences. To test the hypothesis that prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and an early invitation to food supplementation would increase maternal hemoglobin level and birth weight and decrease infant mortality, and to assess whether a combination of these interventions would further enhance these outcomes. A randomized trial with a factorial design in Matlab, Bangladesh, of 4436 pregnant women, recruited between November 11, 2001, and October 30, 2003, with follow-up until June 23, 2009. Participants were randomized into 6 groups; a double-masked supplementation with capsules of 30 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, 60 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS containing a daily allowance of 15 micronutrients, including 30 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, was combined with food supplementation (608 kcal 6 days per week) randomized to either early invitation (9 weeks' gestation) or usual invitation (20 weeks' gestation). Maternal hemoglobin level at 30 weeks' gestation, birth weight, and infant mortality. Under 5-year mortality was also assessed. Adjusted maternal hemoglobin level at 30 weeks' gestation was 115.0 g/L (95% CI, 114.4-115.5 g/L), with no significant differences among micronutrient groups. Mean maternal hemoglobin level was lower in the early vs usual invitation groups (114.5 vs 115.4 g/L; difference, -0.9 g/L; 95% CI, -1.7 to -0.1; P = .04). There were 3625 live births out of 4436 pregnancies. Mean birth weight among 3267 singletons was 2694 g (95% CI, 2680-2708 g), with no significant differences among groups. The early invitation with MMS group had an infant mortality rate of 16.8 per 1000 live births vs 44.1 per 1000 live births for usual invitation with 60 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38; 95% CI, 0.18-0.78). Early invitation with MMS group had an under 5-year mortality rate of 18 per 1000 live births (54 per 1000 live births for usual invitation with 60 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid; HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.18-0.65). Usual invitation with MMS group had the highest incidence of spontaneous abortions and the highest infant mortality rate. Among pregnant women in poor communities in Bangladesh, treatment with multiple micronutrients, including iron and folic acid combined with early food supplementation, vs a standard program that included treatment with iron and folic acid and usual food supplementation, resulted in decreased childhood mortality. isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN16581394.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986-2005.

PubMed

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-02-27

Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 - 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986-2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005

PubMed Central

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-01-01

Background Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 – 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. Methods We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986–2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Results Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Conclusion Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group. PMID:19250535

Adjusting the HIV prevalence for non-respondents using mortality rates in an open cohort in northwest Tanzania.

PubMed

Tenu, Filemon; Isingo, Raphael; Zaba, Basia; Urassa, Mark; Todd, Jim

2014-06-01

To estimate HIV prevalence in adults who have not tested for HIV using age-specific mortality rates and to adjust the overall population HIV prevalence to include both tested and untested adults. An open cohort study was established since 1994 with demographic surveillance system (DSS) and five serological surveys conducted. Deaths from Kisesa DSS were used to estimate mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals by HIV status for 3- 5-year periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009). Assuming that mortality rates in individuals who did not test for HIV are similar to those in tested individuals, and dependent on age, sex and HIV status and HIV, prevalence was estimated. In 1995-1999, mortality rates (per 1000 person years) were 43.7 (95% CI 35.7-53.4) for HIV positive, 2.6 (95% CI 2.1-3.2) in HIV negative and 16.4 (95% CI 14.4-18.7) in untested. In 2000-2004, mortality rates were 43.3 (95% CI 36.2-51.9) in HIV positive, 3.3 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) in HIV negative and 11.9 (95% CI 10.5-13.6) in untested. In 2005-2009, mortality rates were 30.7 (95% CI 24.8-38.0) in HIV positive, 4.1 (95% CI 3.5-4.9) in HIV negative and 5.7 (95% CI 5.0-6.6) in untested residents. In the three survey periods (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009), the adjusted period prevalences of HIV, including the untested, were 13.5%, 11.6% and 7.1%, compared with the observed prevalence in the tested of 6.0%, 6.8 and 8.0%. The estimated prevalence in the untested was 33.4%, 21.6% and 6.1% in the three survey periods. The simple model was able to estimate HIV prevalence where a DSS provided mortality data for untested residents. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Paediatrics in the Asia-Pacific region.

PubMed

Gracey, M; Wong, H B

1993-04-01

Following the establishment of university departments of pediatrics after World War II, national pediatric associations were formed in several countries (in Korea in 1945 and in Nepal in 1981). In Papua New Guinea, the Papuan Medical College began in 1959, and a university department of pediatrics was established in 1974. The population of Papua New Guinea is growing at a rate of 2.3% a year, and less than 70% of women receive prenatal care. Only 40% of deliveries are done under medical supervision. Most of child health problems are associated with malnutrition, pneumonia, gastroenteritis, malaria, meningitis, and tuberculosis. Nonetheless, the infant mortality rate (IMR) dropped from 134/1000 in 1971 to 72/1000 in 1980, and to 60/1000 in 1991. In Nepal, improved child health is a national priority, because the IMR is 129/1000 live births, the under-five mortality rate is 200/1000 live births, life expectancy is 52 years, and adult literacy rates are 39% for males and 12% for females. Nurses receive graduate pediatric training, and there is a postgraduate Diploma in Child Health. In Thailand, supervision of births increased from 33.7% in 1980 to 64.8% in 1988; the IMR dropped from 54.8/1000 live births in 1980 to 42/1000 in 1988; and malnutrition in under-fives dropped from 35.6% in 1980 to 28.5% in 1988. However, 85% of children live in rural communities, and rapid urbanization has resulted in overcrowding, with infectious and parasitic diseases, and high maternal malnutrition. Industrialization profoundly affected child health indices. In Korea the IMR was only 12.5/1000 in 1987, life expectancy was 67 years for males and 75 years for females. In Japan, the IMR dropped from 124/1000 in 1930 to 5.2/1000 in 1986; and maternal mortality declined from 176/100,000 live births in 1950 to 10.8 in 1989. Life expectancy increased from 59.6 years for males and 63 years for females in 1950 to 75.5 years and 81.3 years in 1988, respectively. In Australia, children's hospitals mostly treat asthma, congenital anomalies, and leukemia. Pediatric postgraduate education programs had been developed by the 1980's in most countries. The 7th Asian Congress of Pediatrics was held in Perth, Australia, in May 1991, focusing on priorities of child health.

Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

PubMed

Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

2017-05-01

Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO 2 emission scenarios (pCO 2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO 2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO 2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Child Mortality Over Time Across the Wealth Gradient in Less-Developed Countries

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether inequalities in under-5 mortality by wealth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are growing or declining. METHODS: All Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2002 and 2012 were used to measure under-5 mortality trends in 3 wealth tertiles. Two approaches were used to estimate changes in under-5 mortality: within-survey changes from all 54 countries, and between-survey changes for 29 countries with repeated survey waves. The principal outcome measures include annual decline in mortality, and the ratio of mortality between the poorest and least-poor wealth tertiles. RESULTS: Mortality information in 85 surveys from 929 224 households and 1 267 167 women living in 54 countries was used. In the subset of 29 countries with repeat surveys, mortality declined annually by 4.36, 3.36, and 2.06 deaths per 1000 live births among the poorest, middle, and least-poor tertiles, respectively (P = .031 for difference). The mortality ratio declined from 1.68 to 1.48 during the study period (P = .006 for trend). In the complete set of 85 surveys, the mortality ratio declined in 64 surveys (from 2.11 to 1.55), and increased in 21 surveys (from 1.58 to 1.88). Multivariate analyses suggest that convergence was associated with good governance (P ≤ .03 for 4 governance indicators: government effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory quality, and control of corruption). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, under-5 mortality in low- and middle-income countries has decreased faster among the poorest compared with the least poor between 1995 and 2012, but progress in some countries has lagged, especially with poor governance. PMID:25384496

Income and child mortality in developing countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent; Chiwaula, Levison; Bar-Zeev, Naor

2013-10-01

We aimed to quantify the relationship between national income and infant and under-five mortality in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature search of studies that examined the relationship between income and child mortality (infant and/or under-five mortality) and meta-analysed their results. Developing countries. Child mortality (infant and /or under-five mortality). The systematic literature search identified 24 studies, which produced 38 estimates that examined the impact of income on the mortality rates. Using meta-analysis, we produced pooled estimates of the relationship between income and mortality. The pooled estimate of the relationship between income and infant mortality before adjusting for covariates is -0.95 (95% CI -1.34 to -0.57) and that for under-five mortality is -0.45 (95% CI -0.79 to -0.11). After adjusting for covariates, pooled estimate of the relationship between income and infant mortality is -0.33 (-0.39 to -0.26) while the estimate for under-five mortality is -0.28 (-0.37 to -0.19). If a country has an infant mortality of 50 per 1000 live births and the gross domestic product per capita purchasing power parity increases by 10%, the infant mortality will decrease to 45 per 1000 live births. Income is an important determinant of child survival and this work provides a pooled estimate for the relationship.

Mexico's immunization programme gets results.

PubMed

1994-04-01

With a decline of almost 60% over the past decade in the mortality of children under age 5 years old to the current rate of 33 child deaths/1000 live births, Mexico has joined the 20 countries listed by UNICEF as making the most progress in reducing child mortality since 1980. Much of this progress can be attributed to Mexico's immunization program, which has brought the proportion of fully immunized children under age 5 years to 94% over the past 5 years. Mexico's president has been instrumental in the program's success, having a personal interest in childhood vaccination and supervising the twice-yearly immunization coverage surveys. Even though presidential elections are being held this year, the immunization program should remain strong regardless of who wins because all of Mexico's political parties have pledged to remain committed to immunization. Awareness in the population about the need for vaccination is maintained with the help of the mass media, especially radio and television. The country's enthusiasm for vaccination seems to be paying off in terms of declining child mortality and the eradication of wild poliovirus. The immunization program reaches all but 2-3% of Mexico's children, despite some logistical difficulties and resistance to vaccines among certain religious groups such as the Mennonites and Jehovah's witnesses.

Idaho Kids Count Data Book, 1994: Profiles of Child Well-Being.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Idaho KIDS COUNT Project, Boise.

This Kids Count data book examines county and statewide trends of Idaho children's well-being. The statistical profile is based on 14 indicators: (1) children under age 18 in poverty; (2) children in single parent families; (3) births with adequate prenatal care; (4) infant mortality rate; (5) births to mothers age 10 to 19 without prenatal care;…

Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013).

PubMed

Morakinyo, Oyewale Mayowa; Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

2017-01-01

Neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under-five (U5M) mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS) was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029), 2008 (28647) and 2013 (31482) NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers' education, place of residence, child's sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival.

Inequalities in health: living conditions and infant mortality in Northeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Renata Alves da Silva; Santos, Victor Santana; de Melo, Cláudia Moura; Gurgel, Ricardo Queiroz; Oliveira, Cristiane Costa da Cunha

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the variation of infant mortality as per condition of life in the urban setting. METHODS Ecological study performed with data regarding registered deaths of children under the age of one who resided in Aracaju, SE, Northeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2010. Infant mortality inequalities were assessed based on the spatial distribution of the Living Conditions Index for each neighborhood, classified into four strata. The average mortality rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010 were compared using the Student’s t-test. RESULTS Average infant mortality rates decreased from 25.3 during 2001-2005 to 17.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010. Despite the decrease in the rates in all the strata during that decade, inequality of infant mortality risks increased in neighborhoods with worse living conditions compared with that in areas with better living conditions. CONCLUSIONS Infant mortality rates in Aracaju showed a decline, but with important differences among neighborhoods. The assessment based on a living condition perspective can explain the differences in the risks of infant mortality rates in urban areas, highlighting health inequalities in infant mortality as a multidimensional issue. PMID:25741650

The effects of intermittent exposure to low-pH and low-oxygen conditions on survival and growth of juvenile red abalone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T. W.; Barry, J. P.; Micheli, F.

2013-11-01

Exposure of nearshore animals to hypoxic, low-pH waters upwelled from below the continental shelf and advected near the coast may be stressful to marine organisms and lead to impaired physiological performance. We mimicked upwelling conditions in the laboratory and tested the effect of fluctuating exposure to water with low-pH and/or low-oxygen levels on the mortality and growth of juvenile red abalone (Haliotis rufescens, shell length 5-10 mm). Mortality rates of juvenile abalone exposed to low-pH (7.5, total scale) and low-O2 (40% saturation, mg L-1) conditions for periods of 3 to 6 h every 3-5 days over 2 weeks did not differ from those exposed to control conditions (O2: 100% saturation, 12 mg L-1; pH 8.0). However, when exposure was extended to 24 h, twice over a 15-day period, juveniles experienced 5-20% higher mortality in the low-oxygen treatments compared to control conditions. Growth rates were reduced significantly when juveniles were exposed to low-oxygen and low-pH treatments. Furthermore, individual variation of growth rate increased when juveniles were exposed simultaneously to low-pH and low-O2 conditions. These results indicate that prolonged exposure to low-oxygen levels is detrimental for the survival of red abalone, whereas pH is a crucial factor for their growth. However, the high individual variation in growth rate under low levels of both pH and oxygen suggests that cryptic phenotypic plasticity may promote resistance to prolonged upwelling conditions by a portion of the population.

Trends in malnutrition and mortality in Darfur, Sudan, between 2004 and 2008: a meta-analysis of publicly available surveys.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jens; Prudhon, Claudine; de Radigues, Xavier

2011-08-01

The humanitarian response to the crisis in Darfur is the largest humanitarian operation in the world. To investigate the evolution of the conditions of the affected population, we analysed trends in malnutrition and mortality, the most widely accepted indicators for assessing the degree of severity of a crisis. We did a meta-analysis of 164 publicly available surveys taking into account changes in the contextual situation and humanitarian aid; type of population [residents and internally displaced persons (IDPs)]; and seasonal variations. Data on global acute malnutrition (GAM), severe acute malnutrition (SAM), crude death rate (CDR) and under-five death rate (U5DR) were analysed using a random effect model. GAM and SAM decreased by 16% and 28%, respectively, in 2004-05, whereas CDR dropped by 44-75% per year depending on state and type of population and U5DR decreased by an overall 50% yearly. Both security and the humanitarian contexts became increasingly complex after 2005, but levels of malnutrition stabilized in North and South Darfur. In West Darfur, GAM remained stable but SAM tended to increase for IDPs, although mortality rates remained constant. Mortality increased slightly for residents in South Darfur after 2005, even though nutritional status was stable. GAM, SAM, CDR and U5DR fluctuated markedly with seasons. A meta-analysis of myriads of surveys permitted us to draw an overall picture of the situation in Darfur and to identify some of its influencing factors. The large humanitarian operation, which gained momentum through 2004-05, was able to contain the crisis despite huge difficulties, but did not compensate for seasonal variations. The situation has remained fragile with some negative patterns tending to emerge. It is crucial that the humanitarian situation continues to be closely monitored.

Does adversity early in life affect general population suicide rates? A cross-national study.

PubMed

Shah, Ajit; Bhandarkar, Ritesh

2011-01-01

Adversity early in life has been suggested as a protective factor for elderly suicides. However, studies examining this relationship in general population suicide rates are scarce. The relationship between general population suicide rates and four proxy measures of adversity earlier in life was examined using data from the World Health Organization and the United Nations data banks. General population suicide rates were negatively correlated with the percentage of children under the age of 5 years who were underweight, the percentage of children under the age of 5 years who were under height, the percentage of infants with low birth weight babies, and the percentage of the general population that was undernourished. The only independent predictor general population suicide rates in both sexes, on multiple regression analysis, was the Gini coefficient (a measure of income inequality). Income inequality may lead to low birth weight, undernourishment, underweight and under height because income inequality results in poor access to healthcare and nutrition. These adversities may increase child mortality rates and reduce life expectancy. Those surviving into adulthood in countries with greater adversity early in life may be at reduced risk of suicide because of selective survival of those at reduced risk of suicide due to constitutional or genetic factors and development of greater tolerance to hardship in adulthood. ‎

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Burn Patients: A Comparison of the Berlin and American-European Definitions.

PubMed

Sine, Christy R; Belenkiy, Slava M; Buel, Allison R; Waters, J Alan; Lundy, Jonathan B; Henderson, Jonathan L; Stewart, Ian J; Aden, James K; Liu, Nehemiah T; Batchinsky, Andriy; Cannon, Jeremy W; Cancio, Leopoldo C; Chung, Kevin K

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the Berlin definition to the American-European Consensus Conference (AECC) definition in determining the prevalence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and associated mortality in the critically ill burn population. Consecutive patients admitted to our institution with burn injury that required mechanical ventilation for more than 24 hours were included for analysis. Included patients (N = 891) were classified by both definitions. The median age, % TBSA burn, and injury severity score (interquartile ranges) were 35 (24-51), 25 (11-45), and 18 (9-26), respectively. Inhalation injury was present in 35.5%. The prevalence of ARDS was 34% using the Berlin definition and 30.5% using the AECC definition (combined acute lung injury and ARDS), with associated mortality rates of 40.9 and 42.9%, respectively. Under the Berlin definition, mortality rose with increased ARDS severity (14.6% no ARDS; 16.7% mild; 44% moderate; and 59.7% severe, P < 0.001). By contrast, under the AECC definition increased mortality was seen only for ARDS category (14.7% no ARDS; 15.1% acute lung injury; and 46.0% ARDS, P < 0.001). The mortality of the 22 subjects meeting the AECC, but not the Berlin definition was not different from patients without ARDS (P = .91). The Berlin definition better stratifies ARDS in terms of severity and correctly excludes those with minimal disease previously captured by the AECC.

Socio-demographic and economics factors associated with suicide mortality in Iran, 2001-2010: application of a decomposition model.

PubMed

Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan; Rinaldi, Giulia; Shahnavazi, Hossein; Bouraghi, Hamid; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A

2018-06-14

Suicide is a major global health problem, especially among youth. Suicide is known to be associated with a variety of social, economic, political and religious factors, vary across geographical and cultural regions. The current study aimed to investigate the effects of socioeconomic factors on suicide mortality rate across different regions in Iran. The data on distribution of population and socio-economic factors (such as unemployment rate, divorce rate, urbanization rate, average household expenditure etc.) at province level were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the National Organization for Civil Registration. The data on the annual number of deaths caused by suicide in each province was extracted from the published reports of the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. We used a decomposition model to distinguish between spatial and temporal variation in suicide mortality. The average rate of suicide mortality was 5.5 per 100,000 population over the study period. Across the provinces (spatial variation), suicide mortality rate was positively associated with household expenditure and the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65 years and was negatively associated with the proportion of literate people. Within the provinces (temporal variation), higher divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality. By excluding the outlier provinces, the results showed that in addition to the proportion of people aged 15-24 and older than 65, divorce and unemployment rates were also significant predictors of spatial variation in suicide mortality while divorce rate was associated with higher suicide mortality within provinces. The findings indicate that both spatial and temporal variations in suicide mortality rates across the provinces and over time are determined by a number of socio-economic factors. The study provides information that can be of importance in developing preventive strategies.

Socioeconomic gradients in all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality among immigrants and long-term residents using linked death records in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine

2017-01-01

Background Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Methods Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. Results A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). Conclusions This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. PMID:28289039

Mapping Geographic Variation in Infant Mortality and Related Black–White Disparities in the US

PubMed Central

Rossen, Lauren M.; Khan, Diba; Schoendorf, Kenneth C.

2017-01-01

Background In the US, black infants remain more than twice as likely as white infants to die in the first year of life. Previous studies of geographic variation in infant mortality disparities have been limited to large metropolitan areas where stable estimates of infant mortality rates by race can be determined, leaving much of the US unexplored. Methods The objective of this analysis was to describe geographic variation in county-level racial disparities in infant mortality rates across the 48 contiguous US states and District of Columbia using national linked birth and infant death period files (2004–2011). We implemented Bayesian shared component models in OpenBUGS, borrowing strength across both spatial units and racial groups. We mapped posterior estimates of mortality rates for black and white infants as well as relative and absolute disparities. Results Black infants had higher infant mortality rates than white infants in all counties, but there was geographic variation in the magnitude of both relative and absolute disparities. The mean difference between black and white rates was 5.9 per 1,000 (median: 5.8, interquartile range: 5.2 to 6.6 per 1,000), while those for black infants were 2.2 times higher than for white infants (median: 2.1, interquartile range: 1.9–2.3). One quarter of the county-level variation in rates for black infants was shared with white infants. Conclusions Examining county-level variation in infant mortality rates among black and white infants and related racial disparities may inform efforts to redress inequities and reduce the burden of infant mortality in the US. PMID:27196804

A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006.

PubMed

Chen, Cynthia; Naidoo, Nasheen; Yang, Qian; Hartman, Mikael; Verkooijen, Helena M; Loy, En Yun; Bouchardy, Christine; Chia, Kee Seng; Chia, Sin Eng

2012-06-06

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland) from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172), Sweden (n = 188,783) and Geneva (n = 5,755) from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

Effects of economic crises on population health outcomes in Latin America, 1981-2010: an ecological study.

PubMed

Williams, Callum; Gilbert, Barnabas James; Zeltner, Thomas; Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2016-01-06

The relative health effects of changes in unemployment, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on population health have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the effect of changes in these economic measures on mortality metrics across Latin America. Ecological study. Latin America (21 countries), 1981-2010. Uses multivariate regression analysis to assess the effects of changes in unemployment, inflation and GDP per capita on 5 mortality indicators across 21 countries in Latin America, 1981-2010. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure and population size were controlled for. Between 1981 and 2010, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with statistically significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 5 population health outcomes, with largest deteriorations in 1-5 years of age and male adult mortality rates (1.14 and 0.53 rises per 1000 deaths respectively). A 1% rise in inflation rate was associated with significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 4 population health outcomes, with the largest deterioration in male adult mortality rate (0.0033 rise per 1000 deaths). Lag analysis showed that 5 years after rises in unemployment and inflation, significant deteriorations (p<0.05) occurred in 3 and 5 mortality metrics, respectively. A 1% rise in GDP per capita was associated with no significant deteriorations in population health outcomes either in the short or long term. β coefficient comparisons indicated that the effect of unemployment increases was substantially greater than that of changes in GDP per capita or inflation. Rises in unemployment and inflation are associated with long-lasting deteriorations in several population health outcomes. Unemployment exerted much larger effects on health than inflation. In contrast, changes in GDP per capita had almost no association with the explored health outcomes. Contrary to neoclassical development economics, policymakers should prioritise amelioration of unemployment if population health outcomes are to be optimised. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Lung cancer mortality among workers at a nuclear materials fabrication plant.

PubMed

Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve

2006-02-01

The Oak Ridge, Tennessee Y-12 plant has operated as a nuclear materials fabrication plant since the 1940s. Given the work environment, and prior findings that lung cancer mortality was elevated among white male Y-12 workers relative to US white males, we investigated whether lung cancer mortality was associated with occupational radiation exposures. A cohort of 3,864 workers hired between 1947 and 1974 who had been monitored for internal radiation exposure was identified. Vital status was ascertained through 1990. Over the study period 111 lung cancer deaths were observed. Cumulative external radiation dose under a 5-year lag assumption was positively associated with lung cancer mortality (0.54% increase in lung cancer mortality per 10 mSv, se=0.16, likelihood ratio test (LRT)=5.84, 1 degree of freedom [df]); cumulative internal radiation dose exhibited a highly-imprecise negative association with lung cancer mortality. The positive association between external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality was primarily due to exposure occurring in the period 5-14 years after exposure (0.97% increase in lung cancer mortality rate per 10 mSv, se=0.28, LRT=6.35, 1 df). The association between external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality was negative for exposures occurring at ages<35 years and positive for exposures occurring at ages 35-50 and 50+years. There is evidence of a positive association between cumulative external radiation dose and lung cancer mortality in this population. However, a causal interpretation of this association is constrained by the uncertainties in external and internal radiation dose estimates, the lack of information about exposures to other lung carcinogens, and the limited statistical power of the study. Copyright (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Decadal-scale rates of reef erosion following El Niño-related mass coral mortality.

PubMed

Roff, George; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Mumby, Peter J

2015-12-01

As the frequency and intensity of coral mortality events increase under climate change, understanding how declines in coral cover may affect the bioerosion of reef frameworks is of increasing importance. Here, we explore decadal-scale rates of bioerosion of the framework building coral Orbicella annularis by grazing parrotfish following the 1997/1998 El Niño-related mass mortality event at Long Cay, Belize. Using high-precision U-Th dating and CT scan analysis, we quantified in situ rates of external bioerosion over a 13-year period (1998-2011). Based upon the error-weighted average U-Th age of dead O. annularis skeletons, we estimate the average external bioerosion between 1998 and 2011 as 0.92 ± 0.55 cm depth. Empirical observations of herbivore foraging, and a nonlinear numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability, were used to create a model of external bioerosion at Long Cay. Model estimates of external bioerosion were in close agreement with U-Th estimates (0.85 ± 0.09 cm). The model was then used to quantify how rates of external bioerosion changed across a gradient of coral mortality (i.e., from few corals experiencing mortality following coral bleaching to complete mortality). Our results indicate that external bioerosion is remarkably robust to declines in coral cover, with no significant relationship predicted between the rate of external bioerosion and the proportion of O. annularis that died in the 1998 bleaching event. The outcome was robust because the reduction in grazing intensity that follows coral mortality was compensated for by a positive numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability. Our model estimates further indicate that for an O. annularis-dominated reef to maintain a positive state of reef accretion, a necessity for sustained ecosystem function, live cover of O. annularis must not drop below a ~5-10% threshold of cover. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for 30-Day Mortality in Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Sengupta, Neil; Tapper, Elliot B

2017-05-01

There are limited data to predict which patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding are at risk for adverse outcomes. We aimed to develop a clinical tool based on admission variables to predict 30-day mortality in lower gastrointestinal bleeding. We used a validated machine learning algorithm to identify adult patients hospitalized with lower gastrointestinal bleeding at an academic medical center between 2008 and 2015. The cohort was split randomly into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we used multiple logistic regression on all candidate admission variables to create a prediction model for 30-day mortality, using area under the receiving operator characteristic curve and misclassification rate to estimate prediction accuracy. Regression coefficients were used to derive an integer score, and mortality risk associated with point totals was assessed. In the derivation cohort (n = 4044), 8 variables were most associated with 30-day mortality: age, dementia, metastatic cancer, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, anticoagulant use, admission hematocrit, and albumin. The model yielded a misclassification rate of 0.06 and area under the curve of 0.81. The integer score ranged from -10 to 26 in the derivation cohort, with a misclassification rate of 0.11 and area under the curve of 0.74. In the validation cohort (n = 2060), the score had an area under the curve of 0.72 with a misclassification rate of 0.12. After dividing the score into 4 quartiles of risk, 30-day mortality in the derivation and validation sets was 3.6% and 4.4% in quartile 1, 4.9% and 7.3% in quartile 2, 9.9% and 9.1% in quartile 3, and 24% and 26% in quartile 4, respectively. A clinical tool can be used to predict 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas - Will the Goal of a Decline of "25% by 2025" be Met?

PubMed

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J M; Cooper, Richard S

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000-2010 in the Americas. Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000-2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year-a statistically significant reduction of mortality-. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025.

Association between periodontitis and mortality in stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease: NHANES III and linked mortality study.

PubMed

Sharma, Praveen; Dietrich, Thomas; Ferro, Charles J; Cockwell, Paul; Chapple, Iain L C

2016-02-01

Periodontitis may add to the systemic inflammatory burden in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD), thereby contributing to an increased mortality rate. This study aimed to determine the association between periodontitis and mortality rate (all-cause and cardiovascular disease-related) in individuals with stage 3-5 CKD, hitherto referred to as "CKD". Survival analysis was carried out using the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and linked mortality data. Cox proportional hazards regression was employed to assess the association between periodontitis and mortality, in individuals with CKD. This association was compared with the association between mortality and traditional risk factors in CKD mortality (diabetes, hypertension and smoking). Of the 13,784 participants eligible for analysis in NHANES III, 861 (6%) had CKD. The median follow-up for this cohort was 14.3 years. Adjusting for confounders, the 10-year all-cause mortality rate for individuals with CKD increased from 32% (95% CI: 29-35%) to 41% (36-47%) with the addition of periodontitis. For diabetes, the 10-year all-cause mortality rate increased to 43% (38-49%). There is a strong, association between periodontitis and increased mortality in individuals with CKD. Sources of chronic systemic inflammation (including periodontitis) may be important contributors to mortality in patients with CKD. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2015-08-06

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks. PMID:26247438

Maternal care receptivity and its relation to perinatal and neonatal mortality. A rural study.

PubMed

Bhardwaj, N; Hasan, S B; Zaheer, M

1995-04-01

A longitudinal study was conducted on 212 pregnant women from May 1987 to April 1988. Maternal Care Receptivity (MCR) "an innovative approach" was adopted for the assessment of maternal care services provided to pregnant mothers at their door steps. During follow-up, scores were allotted to each of the services rendered and antenatal status of pregnant women. Depending on the score--MCR was classified as high (11 to 8), moderate (7 to 4) or poor (3 to 0). Perinatal and neonatal deaths were recorded and an inverse relationship between MCR and perinatal and mortalities was observed (z = 5.46, p < 0.0001). Significantly, no perinatal or neonatal deaths occurred in women with high MCR. One of the most important cause of high PNMR and neonatal mortality rate in developing countries is poor MCR, i.e., under utilization of even the existing maternal health services. The main reasons for this under utilization appear to be poverty, illiteracy, ignorance and lack of faith in modern medicine.

Spatial-temporal dynamics and structural determinants of child and maternal mortality in a rural, high HIV burdened South African population, 2000-2014: a study protocol.

PubMed

Tlou, B; Sartorius, B; Tanser, F

2016-07-15

Child (infant and under-5) and maternal mortality rates are key indicators for assessing the health status of populations. South Africa's maternal and child mortality rates are high, and the country mirrors the continental trend of slow progress towards its Millennium Development Goals. Rural areas are often more affected regarding child and maternal mortalities, specifically in areas with a high HIV burden. This study aims to understand the factors affecting child and maternal mortality in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area (DSA) from 2003 to 2014 towards developing tailored interventions to reduce the deaths in resource poor settings. This will be done by identifying child and maternal mortality 'hotspots' and their associated risk factors. This retrospective study will use data for 2003-2014 from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. All homesteads in the study area have been mapped to an accuracy of <2 m, all deaths recorded and the assigned cause of death established using a verbal autopsy interview. Advanced spatial-temporal clustering techniques (both regular (Kulldorff) and irregular (FleXScan)) will be used to identify mortality 'hotspots'. Various advanced statistical modelling approaches will be tested and used to identify significant risk factors for child and maternal mortality. Differences in attributability and risk factors profiles in identified 'hotspots' will be assessed to enable tailored intervention guidance/development. This multicomponent study will enable a refined intervention model to be developed for typical rural populations with a high HIV burden. Ethical approval was received from the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BREC) of the University of KwaZulu-Natal (BE 169/15). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan: current estimates and limitations

PubMed Central

Becker, Stan; Hansen, Peter M; Kumar, Dhirendra; Kumar, Binay; Niayesh, Haseebullah; Peters, David H; Burnham, Gilbert

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine historical estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan, provide estimates for rural areas from current population-based data, and discuss the methodological challenges that undermine data quality and hinder retrospective estimations of mortality. Methods Indirect methods of estimation were used to calculate infant and under-five mortality from a household survey conducted in 2006. Sex-specific differences in underreporting of births and deaths were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of underreporting on infant and under-five mortality. Findings For 2004, rural unadjusted infant and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 129 and 191 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively, with some evidence indicating underreporting of female deaths. If adjustment for underreporting is made (i.e. by assuming 50% of the unreported girls are dead), mortality estimates go up to 140 and 209, respectively. Conclusion Commonly used estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan are outdated; they do not reflect changes that have occurred in the past 15 years or recent intensive investments in health services development, such as the implementation of the Basic Package of Health Services. The sociocultural aspects of mortality and their effect on the reporting of births and deaths in Afghanistan need to be investigated further. PMID:20680122

Relationship between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction by educational level: a national prospective study in Iran.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Ali; Khaledifar, Arsalan; Sajjadi, Homeira; Soori, Hamid

2014-11-27

Since no hospital-based, nationwide study has been yet conducted on the association between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI) by educational level in Iran, the present study was conducted to investigate relationship between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to MI by educational level. In this nationwide hospital-based, prospective analysis, follow-up duration was from definite diagnosis of MI to death. The cohort of the patients was defined in view of the date at diagnosis, hospitalization and the date at discharge (recovery or in-hospital death due to MI). 20750 patients hospitalized for newly diagnosed MI between April, 2012 and March, 2013 comprised sample size. Totally, 2511 deaths due to MI were obtained. The data on education level (four-level) were collected based on years of schooling. To determine in-hospital mortality rate and the associated factors with mortality, seven statistical models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models. Of the studied patients, 9611 (6.1%) had no education. in-hospital mortality rate was 8.36 (95% CI: 7.81-8.9) in women and 6.12 (95% CI: 5.83-6.43) in men per 100 person-years. This rate was 5.56 in under 65-year-old patients and 8.37 in over 65-year-old patients. This rate in the patients with no, primary, high school, and academic education was respectively 8.11, 6.11, 4.85 and 5.81 per 100 person-years. Being woman, chest pain prior to arriving in hospital, lack of thrombolytic therapy, right bundle branch block, ventricular tachycardia, smoking and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were significantly associated with increased hazard ratio (HR) of death. The adjusted HR of mortality was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.06-1.52), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.77-1.13), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.57-0.91) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66-1.01) in the patients with respectively illiterate, primary, secondary and high school education compared to academic education. A disparity was noted in post-MI mortality incidence in different educational levels in Iran. HR of death was higher in illiterate patients than in the patients with academic education. Identifying disparities per educational level could contribute to detecting the individuals at high risk, health promotion and care improvement by relevant planning and interventions in clinics and communities.

Demography and population dynamics of massive coral communities in adjacent high latitude regions (United Arab Emirates).

PubMed

Foster, Kristi A; Foster, Greg

2013-01-01

Individual massive coral colonies, primarily faviids and poritids, from three distinct assemblages within the southeastern Arabian Gulf and northwestern Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates) were studied from 2006-2009. Annual photographic censuses of approximately 2000 colonies were used to describe the demographics (size class frequencies, abundance, area cover) and population dynamics under "normal" environmental conditions. Size class transitions included growth, which occurred in 10-20% of the colonies, followed in decending order by partial mortality (3-16%), colony fission (<5%) and ramet fusion (<3%). Recruitment and whole colony mortality rates were low (<0.7 colonies/m(2)) with minimal interannual variation. Transition matrices indicated that the Arabian Gulf assemblages have declining growth rates (λ<1) whereas the massive coral population is stable (λ = 1) in the Gulf of Oman. Projection models indicated that (i) the Arabian Gulf population and area cover declines would be exacerbated under 10-year and 16-year disturbance scenarios as the vital rates do not allow for recovery to pre-disturbance levels during these timeframes, and (ii) the Gulf of Oman assemblage could return to its pre-disturbance area cover but its overall population size would not fully recover under the same scenarios.

Demography and Population Dynamics of Massive Coral Communities in Adjacent High Latitude Regions (United Arab Emirates)

PubMed Central

Foster, Kristi A.; Foster, Greg

2013-01-01

Individual massive coral colonies, primarily faviids and poritids, from three distinct assemblages within the southeastern Arabian Gulf and northwestern Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates) were studied from 2006–2009. Annual photographic censuses of approximately 2000 colonies were used to describe the demographics (size class frequencies, abundance, area cover) and population dynamics under “normal” environmental conditions. Size class transitions included growth, which occurred in 10–20% of the colonies, followed in decending order by partial mortality (3–16%), colony fission (<5%) and ramet fusion (<3%). Recruitment and whole colony mortality rates were low (<0.7 colonies/m2) with minimal interannual variation. Transition matrices indicated that the Arabian Gulf assemblages have declining growth rates (λ<1) whereas the massive coral population is stable (λ = 1) in the Gulf of Oman. Projection models indicated that (i) the Arabian Gulf population and area cover declines would be exacerbated under 10-year and 16-year disturbance scenarios as the vital rates do not allow for recovery to pre-disturbance levels during these timeframes, and (ii) the Gulf of Oman assemblage could return to its pre-disturbance area cover but its overall population size would not fully recover under the same scenarios. PMID:23990923

Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN sustainable development goal for health.

PubMed

Norheim, Ole F; Jha, Prabhat; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Godal, Tore; Hum, Ryan J; Kruk, Margaret E; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio; Mathers, Colin D; Pan, Hongchao; Sepúlveda, Jaime; Suraweera, Wilson; Verguet, Stéphane; Woldemariam, Addis T; Yamey, Gavin; Jamison, Dean T; Peto, Richard

2015-01-17

The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a quatitative health target, "Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages". Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide. UN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third. Throughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide). Moderate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic. UK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Norheim et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of malnutrition upon all-cause mortality among children in Swaziland.

PubMed

Acevedo, Paula; García Esteban, María Teresa; Lopez-Ejeda, Noemí; Gómez, Amador; Marrodán, María Dolores

2017-04-01

To analyze the effect of the type of malnutrition, sex, age and the presence of edema upon all-cause mortality in children under 5 years of age. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2010 and 2011 in Swaziland. Sex, age, weight and height were taken to classify nutritional status according to the 2006 WHO growth standards: stunting (low height for age), wasting (low weight for height or low body mass index for age) and underweight (low weight for age). The sample (309 boys and 244 girls under 5 years of age) was analyzed by sex and age groups (under and equal/over 12 months). The association between variables was evaluated using the χ 2 test. Cox regression analysis (HR, 95% CI) was used to assess the likelihood of mortality. The mortality risk in malnourished children under one year of age was lower among females and increased in the presence of severe edema. Wasting combined with underweight increased the mortality risk in children under 12 months of age 5-fold, versus 11-fold in older children. The combination of stunting, wasting and underweight was closely associated to mortality. Stunting alone (not combined with wasting) did not significantly increase the mortality risk. Sex, severe edema and wasting are predictors of mortality in malnourished children. Regardless of these factors, children with deficiencies referred to weight for height and weight for age present a greater mortality risk in comparison with children who present stunting only. Copyright © 2017 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Can rheumatoid arthritis (RA) registries provide contextual safety data for modern RA clinical trials? The case for mortality and cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Michaud, Kaleb; Berglind, Niklas; Franzén, Stefan; Frisell, Thomas; Garwood, Christopher; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Ho, Meilien; Holmqvist, Marie; Horne, Laura; Inoue, Eisuke; Nyberg, Fredrik; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Reed, George; Symmons, Deborah; Tanaka, Eiichi; Tran, Trung N; Verstappen, Suzanne M M; Wesby-van Swaay, Eveline; Yamanaka, Hisashi; Askling, Johan

2016-10-01

We implemented a novel method for providing contextual adverse event rates for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) programme through coordinated analyses of five RA registries, focusing here on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Each participating registry (Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) (USA), Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register (SRR) (Sweden), Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) (UK), CORRONA International (East Europe, Latin America, India) and Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis (IORRA) (Japan)) defined a main cohort from January 2000 onwards. To address comparability and potential bias, we harmonised event definitions and defined several subcohorts for sensitivity analyses based on disease activity, treatment, calendar time, duration of follow-up and RCT exclusions. Rates were standardised for age, sex and, in one sensitivity analysis, also HAQ. The combined registry cohorts included 57 251 patients with RA (234 089 person-years)-24.5% men, mean (SD) baseline age 58.2 (13.8) and RA duration 8.2 (11.7) years. Standardised registry mortality rates (per 100 person-years) varied from 0.42 (CORRONA) to 0.80 (NOAR), with 0.60 for RCT patients. Myocardial infarction and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) rates ranged from 0.09 and 0.31 (IORRA) to 0.39 and 0.77 (SRR), with RCT rates intermediate (0.18 and 0.42), respectively. Additional subcohort analyses showed small and mostly consistent changes across registries, retaining reasonable consistency in rates across the Western registries. Additional standardisation for HAQ returned higher mortality and MACE registry rates. This coordinated approach to contextualising RA RCT safety data demonstrated reasonable differences and consistency in rates for mortality and CVD across registries, and comparable RCT rates, and may serve as a model method to supplement clinical trial analyses for drug development programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Mortality differences between self-employed and paid employees: a 5-year follow-up study of the working population in Sweden.

PubMed

Toivanen, Susanna; Griep, Rosane Härter; Mellner, Christin; Vinberg, Stig; Eloranta, Sandra

2016-09-01

Analyse mortality differences between self-employed and paid employees with a focus on industrial sector, educational level and gender using Swedish register data. A cohort of the total working population (4 776 135 individuals; 7.2% self-employed; 18-100 years of age at baseline 2003) in Sweden with a 5-year follow-up (2004-2008) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality (57 743 deaths). Self-employed individuals were categorised as sole proprietors or limited liability company (LLC) owners according to their enterprise's legal form. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to compare mortality rates between sole proprietors, LLC owners and paid employees, adjusted for sociodemographic confounders. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 16% lower and from suicide 26% lower among LLC owners than among paid employees, adjusted for confounders. Within the industrial category, all-cause mortality was 13-15% lower among sole proprietors and LLC owners compared with employees in manufacturing and mining (MM) as well as personal and cultural services (PCS), and 11-20% higher in sole proprietors in trade, transport and communication and the welfare industry (W). A significant three-way interaction indicated 17-23% lower all-cause mortality among male LLC owners in MM and female sole proprietors in PCS, and 50% higher mortality in female sole proprietors in W than in employees in the same industries. Mortality differences between self-employed individuals and paid employees vary by the legal form of self-employment, across industries, and by gender. Differences in work environment exposures and working conditions, varying market competition across industries and gender segregation in the labour market are potential mechanisms underlying these findings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data

PubMed Central

Arku, Raphael E.; Bennett, James E.; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E.; Spengler, John D.; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality—and its social and environmental risk factors—at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. Methods and Findings We used 10% random samples of Ghana’s 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana’s 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana’s districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends. PMID:27327774

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-11-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller variations in mortality. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unacceptably High Mortality Related to Measles Epidemics in Niger, Nigeria, and Chad

PubMed Central

Grais, R. F; Dubray, C; Gerstl, S; Guthmann, J. P; Djibo, A; Nargaye, K. D; Coker, J; Alberti, K. P; Cochet, A; Ihekweazu, C; Nathan, N; Payne, L; Porten, K; Sauvageot, D; Schimmer, B; Fermon, F; Burny, M. E; Hersh, B. S; Guerin, P. J

2007-01-01

Background Despite the comprehensive World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) measles mortality–reduction strategy and the Measles Initiative, a partnership of international organizations supporting measles mortality reduction in Africa, certain high-burden countries continue to face recurrent epidemics. To our knowledge, few recent studies have documented measles mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of our study was to investigate measles mortality in three recent epidemics in Niamey (Niger), N'Djamena (Chad), and Adamawa State (Nigeria). Methods and Findings We conducted three exhaustive household retrospective mortality surveys in one neighbourhood of each of the three affected areas: Boukoki, Niamey, Niger (April 2004, n = 26,795); Moursal, N'Djamena, Chad (June 2005, n = 21,812); and Dong District, Adamawa State, Nigeria (April 2005, n = 16,249), where n is the total surveyed population in each of the respective areas. Study populations included all persons resident for at least 2 wk prior to the study, a duration encompassing the measles incubation period. Heads of households provided information on measles cases, clinical outcomes up to 30 d after rash onset, and health-seeking behaviour during the epidemic. Measles cases and deaths were ascertained using standard WHO surveillance-case definitions. Our main outcome measures were measles attack rates (ARs) and case fatality ratios (CFRs) by age group, and descriptions of measles complications and health-seeking behaviour. Measles ARs were the highest in children under 5 y old (under 5 y): 17.1% in Boukoki, 17.2% in Moursal, and 24.3% in Dong District. CFRs in under 5-y-olds were 4.6%, 4.0%, and 10.8% in Boukoki, Moursal, and Dong District, respectively. In all sites, more than half of measles cases in children aged under 5 y experienced acute respiratory infection and/or diarrhoea in the 30 d following rash onset. Of measles cases, it was reported that 85.7% (979/1,142) of patients visited a health-care facility within 30 d after rash onset in Boukoki, 73.5% (519/706) in Moursal, and 52.8% (603/1,142) in Dong District. Conclusions Children in these countries still face unacceptably high mortality from a completely preventable disease. While the successes of measles mortality–reduction strategies and progress observed in measles control in other countries of the region are laudable and evident, they should not overshadow the need for intensive efforts in countries that have just begun implementation of the WHO/UNICEF comprehensive strategy. PMID:17199407

Association of rule of law and health outcomes: an ecological study

PubMed Central

Pinzon-Rondon, Angela Maria; Attaran, Amir; Botero, Juan Carlos; Ruiz-Sternberg, Angela Maria

2015-01-01

Objectives To explore whether the rule of law is a foundational determinant of health that underlies other socioeconomic, political and cultural factors that have been associated with health outcomes. Setting Global project. Participants Data set of 96 countries, comprising 91% of the global population. Primary and secondary outcome measures The following health indicators, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, life expectancy, and cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality rate, were included to explore their association with the rule of law. We used a novel Rule of Law Index, gathered from survey sources, in a cross-sectional and ecological design. The Index is based on eight subindices: (1) Constraints on Government Powers; (2) Absence of Corruption; (3) Order and Security; (4) Fundamental Rights; (5) Open Government; (6) Regulatory Enforcement, (7) Civil Justice; and (8) Criminal Justice. Results The rule of law showed an independent association with infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, life expectancy, and cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality rate, after adjusting for the countries’ level of per capita income, their expenditures in health, their level of political and civil freedom, their Gini measure of inequality and women's status (p<0.05). Rule of law remained significant in all the multivariate models, and the following adjustment for potential confounders remained robust for at least one or more of the health outcomes across all eight subindices of the rule of law. Findings show that the higher the country's level of adherence to the rule of law, the better the health of the population. Conclusions It is necessary to start considering the country's adherence to the rule of law as a foundational determinant of health. Health advocates should consider the improvement of rule of law as a tool to improve population health. Conversely, lack of progress in rule of law may constitute a structural barrier to health improvement. PMID:26515684

Spotlight: Peru.

PubMed

Yacher, L

1985-09-01

This article highlights population statistics from Peru, the 3rd largest country in Latin America. The population in 1985 has been estimated at 19.7 million. In 1982, the birth rate was 35/1000 and the mortality rate was 10/1000. Infant mortality stood at 99/1000 live births and life expectancy at birth was 59 years. 41% of Peru's population is under 15 years of age, and only 4% is 65 years of age or older. The country's total fertility rate is 5.2 births/woman. Only 0.4% of the population is foreign born. Peru is highly urbanized, and 65% of the country's total population growth in 1981 occurred in its cities. 1 in 3 Peruvians resides in the capital city of Lima. The 2 largest racial groups are mestizos and whites (53%) and Indians (46%). 21% of the population is illiterate. 40.7% of the labor force is employed in agriculture; however, only 15% of the national income is derived from agriculture. The GNP per capita was US$1040 in 1983. The country's economy is in serious trouble at present, with an annual inflation rate of 250% and a foreign debt of US$13.5 billion.

Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Yang, Xilin; So, Wing Yee; Tong, Peter C Y; Ma, Ronald C W; Kong, Alice P S; Lam, Christopher W K; Ho, Chung Shun; Cockram, Clive S; Ko, Gary T C; Chow, Chun-Chung; Wong, Vivian C W; Chan, Juliana C N

2008-03-10

Diabetes reduces life expectancy by 10 to 12 years, but whether death can be predicted in type 2 diabetes mellitus remains uncertain. A prospective cohort of 7583 type 2 diabetic patients enrolled since 1995 were censored on July 30, 2005, or after 6 years of follow-up, whichever came first. A restricted cubic spline model was used to check data linearity and to develop linear-transforming formulas. Data were randomly assigned to a training data set and to a test data set. A Cox model was used to develop risk scores in the test data set. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test data set. A total of 619 patients died during a median follow-up period of 5.51 years, resulting in a mortality rate of 18.69 per 1000 person-years. Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, cancer history, insulin use, blood hemoglobin levels, linear-transformed body mass index, random spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at enrollment were predictors of all-cause death. A risk score for all-cause mortality was developed using these predictors. The predicted and observed death rates in the test data set were similar (P > .70). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 for 5 years of follow-up. Using the risk score in ranking cause-specific deaths, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 for genitourinary death, 0.85 for circulatory death, 0.85 for respiratory death, and 0.71 for neoplasm death. Death in type 2 diabetes mellitus can be predicted using a risk score consisting of commonly measured clinical and biochemical variables. Further validation is needed before clinical use.

Perforated peptic ulcer - an update

PubMed Central

Chung, Kin Tong; Shelat, Vishalkumar G

2017-01-01

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) affects 4 million people worldwide annually. The incidence of PUD has been estimated at around 1.5% to 3%. Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a serious complication of PUD and patients with PPU often present with acute abdomen that carries high risk for morbidity and mortality. The lifetime prevalence of perforation in patients with PUD is about 5%. PPU carries a mortality ranging from 1.3% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality rate reaching 20% and 90-d mortality rate of up to 30% have been reported. In this review we have summarized the current evidence on PPU to update readers. This literature review includes the most updated information such as common causes, clinical features, diagnostic methods, non-operative and operative management, post-operative complications and different scoring systems of PPU. With the advancement of medical technology, PUD can now be treated with medications instead of elective surgery. The classic triad of sudden onset of abdominal pain, tachycardia and abdominal rigidity is the hallmark of PPU. Erect chest radiograph may miss 15% of cases with air under the diaphragm in patients with bowel perforation. Early diagnosis, prompt resuscitation and urgent surgical intervention are essential to improve outcomes. Exploratory laparotomy and omental patch repair remains the gold standard. Laparoscopic surgery should be considered when expertise is available. Gastrectomy is recommended in patients with large or malignant ulcer. PMID:28138363

Perforated peptic ulcer - an update.

PubMed

Chung, Kin Tong; Shelat, Vishalkumar G

2017-01-27

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) affects 4 million people worldwide annually. The incidence of PUD has been estimated at around 1.5% to 3%. Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a serious complication of PUD and patients with PPU often present with acute abdomen that carries high risk for morbidity and mortality. The lifetime prevalence of perforation in patients with PUD is about 5%. PPU carries a mortality ranging from 1.3% to 20%. Thirty-day mortality rate reaching 20% and 90-d mortality rate of up to 30% have been reported. In this review we have summarized the current evidence on PPU to update readers. This literature review includes the most updated information such as common causes, clinical features, diagnostic methods, non-operative and operative management, post-operative complications and different scoring systems of PPU. With the advancement of medical technology, PUD can now be treated with medications instead of elective surgery. The classic triad of sudden onset of abdominal pain, tachycardia and abdominal rigidity is the hallmark of PPU. Erect chest radiograph may miss 15% of cases with air under the diaphragm in patients with bowel perforation. Early diagnosis, prompt resuscitation and urgent surgical intervention are essential to improve outcomes. Exploratory laparotomy and omental patch repair remains the gold standard. Laparoscopic surgery should be considered when expertise is available. Gastrectomy is recommended in patients with large or malignant ulcer.

Quantifying a rare disease in administrative data: the example of calciphylaxis.

PubMed

Nigwekar, Sagar U; Solid, Craig A; Ankers, Elizabeth; Malhotra, Rajeev; Eggert, William; Turchin, Alexander; Thadhani, Ravi I; Herzog, Charles A

2014-08-01

Calciphylaxis, a rare disease seen in chronic dialysis patients, is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. As is the case with other rare diseases, the precise epidemiology of calciphylaxis remains unknown. Absence of a unique International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code impedes its identification in large administrative databases such as the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) and hinders patient-oriented research. This study was designed to develop an algorithm to accurately identify cases of calciphylaxis and to examine its incidence and mortality. Along with many other diagnoses, calciphylaxis is included in ICD-9 code 275.49, Other Disorders of Calcium Metabolism. Since calciphylaxis is the only disorder listed under this code that requires a skin biopsy for diagnosis, we theorized that simultaneous application of code 275.49 and skin biopsy procedure codes would accurately identify calciphylaxis cases. This novel algorithm was developed using the Partners Research Patient Data Registry (RPDR) (n = 11,451 chronic hemodialysis patients over study period January 2002 to December 2011) using natural language processing and review of medical and pathology records (the gold-standard strategy). We then applied this algorithm to the USRDS to investigate calciphylaxis incidence and mortality. Comparison of our novel research strategy against the gold standard yielded: sensitivity 89.2%, specificity 99.9%, positive likelihood ratio 3,382.3, negative likelihood ratio 0.11, and area under the curve 0.96. Application of the algorithm to the USRDS identified 649 incident calciphylaxis cases over the study period. Although calciphylaxis is rare, its incidence has been increasing, with a major inflection point during 2006-2007, which corresponded with specific addition of calciphylaxis under code 275.49 in October 2006. Calciphylaxis incidence continued to rise even after limiting the study period to 2007 onwards (from 3.7 to 5.7 per 10,000 chronic hemodialysis patients; r = 0.91, p = 0.02). Mortality rates among calciphylaxis patients were noted to be 2.5-3 times higher than average mortality rates for chronic hemodialysis patients. By developing and successfully applying a novel algorithm, we observed a significant increase in calciphylaxis incidence. Because calciphylaxis is associated with extremely high mortality, our study provides valuable information for future patient-oriented calciphylaxis research, and also serves as a template for investigating other rare diseases.

Mortality trends due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Gazotto, Gabriel Pereira

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to update and analyze data on mortality trend due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Brazil. Initially, the specific COPD mortality rates were calculated from 1989 to 2009 using data collected from DATASUS (Departamento de Informática do SUS - Brazilian Health System Database). Then, the polynomial regression models from the observed functional relation were estimated based on mortality coefficients and study years. We verified that the general mortality rates due to COPD in Brazil showed an increasing trend from 1989 to 2004, and then decreased. Both genders showed the same increasing tendencies until 2004 and decreased thereafter. The age group under 35 years old showed a linear decreasing trend. All other age groups showed quadratic tendencies, with increases until the years of 1998-1999 and then decreasing. The South and Southeast regions showed the highest COPD mortality rates with increasing trends until the years 2001-2002 and then decreased. The North, Northeast and Central-West regions showed lower mortality rates but increasing trend. This is the first report of COPD mortality stabilization in Brazil since 1980.

United States Renal Data System public health surveillance of chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Collins, Allan J; Foley, Robert N; Gilbertson, David T; Chen, Shu-Cheng

2015-06-01

The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) began in 1989 through US Congressional authorization under National Institutes of Health competitive contracting. Its history includes five contract periods, two of 5 years, two of 7.5 years, and the fifth, awarded in February 2014, of 5 years. Over these 25 years, USRDS reporting transitioned from basic incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), modalities, and overall survival, as well as focused special studies on dialysis, in the first two contract periods to a comprehensive assessment of aspects of care that affect morbidity and mortality in the second two periods. Beginning in 1999, the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation investigative team transformed the USRDS into a total care reporting system including disease severity, hospitalizations, pediatric populations, prescription drug use, and chronic kidney disease and the transition to ESRD. Areas of focus included issues related to death rates in the first 4 months of treatment, sudden cardiac death, ischemic and valvular heart disease, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and infectious complications (particularly related to dialysis catheters) in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients; the burden of congestive heart failure and infectious complications in pediatric dialysis and transplant populations; and morbidity and access to care. The team documented a plateau and decline in incidence rates, a 28% decline in death rates since 2001, and changes under the 2011 Prospective Payment System with expanded bundled payments for each dialysis treatment. The team reported on Bayesian methods to calculate mortality ratios, which reduce the challenges of traditional methods, and introduced objectives under the Health People 2010 and 2020 national health care goals for kidney disease.

What can Pakistan do to address maternal and child health over the next decade?

PubMed

Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Hafeez, Assad

2015-11-25

Pakistan faces huge challenges in meeting its international obligations and agreed Millennium Development Goal targets for reducing maternal and child mortality. While there have been reductions in maternal and under-5 child mortality, overall rates are barely above secular trends and neonatal mortality has not reduced much. Progress in addressing basic determinants, such as poverty, undernutrition, safe water, and sound sanitary conditions as well as female education, is unsatisfactory and, not surprisingly, population growth hampers economic growth and development across the country. The devolution of health to the provinces has created challenges as well as opportunities for action. This paper presents a range of actions needed for change within the health and social sectors, including primary care, social determinants, strategies to reach the unreached, and accountability.

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas – Will the Goal of a Decline of “25% by 2025” be Met?

PubMed Central

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J. M.; Cooper, Richard S.

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000–2010 in the Americas. Findings Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000–2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year—a statistically significant reduction of mortality—. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Conclusions Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025. PMID:26512989

Quantifying the individual-level association between income and mortality risk in the United States using the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry; Hakes, Jahn K

2016-12-01

Policy makers would benefit from being able to estimate the likely impact of potential interventions to reverse the effects of rapidly rising income inequality on mortality rates. Using multiple cohorts of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS), we estimate the absolute income effect on premature mortality in the United States. A multivariate Poisson regression using the natural logarithm of equivilized household income establishes the magnitude of the absolute income effect on mortality. We calculate mortality rates for each income decile of the study sample and mortality rate ratios relative to the decile containing mean income. We then apply the estimated income effect to two kinds of hypothetical interventions that would redistribute income. The first lifts everyone with an equivalized household income at or below the U.S. poverty line (in 2000$) out of poverty, to the income category just above the poverty line. The second shifts each family's equivalized income by, in turn, 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% toward the mean household income, equivalent to reducing the Gini coefficient by the same percentage in each scenario. We also assess mortality disparities of the hypothetical interventions using ratios of mortality rates of the ninth and second income deciles, and test sensitivity to the assumption of causality of income on mortality by halving the mortality effect per unit of equivalized household income. The estimated absolute income effect would produce a three to four percent reduction in mortality for a 10% reduction in the Gini coefficient. Larger mortality reductions result from larger reductions in the Gini, but with diminishing returns. Inequalities in estimated mortality rates are reduced by a larger percentage than overall estimated mortality rates under the same hypothetical redistributions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of More vs Less Frequent Follow-up Testing on Overall and Colorectal Cancer-Specific Mortality in Patients With Stage II or III Colorectal Cancer: The COLOFOL Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Wille-Jørgensen, Peer; Syk, Ingvar; Smedh, Kenneth; Laurberg, Søren; Nielsen, Dennis T; Petersen, Sune H; Renehan, Andrew G; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Påhlman, Lars; Sørensen, Henrik T

2018-05-22

Intensive follow-up of patients after curative surgery for colorectal cancer is common in clinical practice, but evidence of a survival benefit is limited. To examine overall mortality, colorectal cancer-specific mortality, and colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rates among patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer who were randomized after curative surgery to 2 alternative schedules for follow-up testing with computed tomography and carcinoembryonic antigen. Unblinded randomized trial including 2509 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer treated at 24 centers in Sweden, Denmark, and Uruguay from January 2006 through December 2010 and followed up for 5 years; follow-up ended on December 31, 2015. Patients were randomized either to follow-up testing with computed tomography of the thorax and abdomen and serum carcinoembryonic antigen at 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after surgery (high-frequency group; n = 1253 patients) or at 12 and 36 months after surgery (low-frequency group; n = 1256 patients). The primary outcomes were 5-year overall mortality and colorectal cancer-specific mortality rates. The secondary outcome was the colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rate. Both intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed. Among 2555 patients who were randomized, 2509 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (mean age, 63.5 years; 1128 women [45%]) and 2365 (94.3%) completed the trial. The 5-year overall patient mortality rate in the high-frequency group was 13.0% (161/1253) compared with 14.1% (174/1256) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 1.1% [95% CI, -1.6% to 3.8%]; P = .43). The 5-year colorectal cancer-specific mortality rate in the high-frequency group was 10.6% (128/1248) compared with 11.4% (137/1250) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 0.8% [95% CI, -1.7% to 3.3%]; P = .52). The colorectal cancer-specific recurrence rate was 21.6% (265/1248) in the high-frequency group compared with 19.4% (238/1250) in the low-frequency group (risk difference, 2.2% [95% CI, -1.0% to 5.4%]; P = .15). Among patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer, follow-up testing with computed tomography and carcinoembryonic antigen more frequently compared with less frequently did not result in a significant rate reduction in 5-year overall mortality or colorectal cancer-specific mortality. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00225641.

Visible laser and UV-A radiation impact on a PNP degrading Moraxella strain and its rpoS mutant.

PubMed

Nandakumar, Kanavillil; Keeler, Werden; Schraft, Heidi; Leung, Kam T

2006-07-05

The role of stationary phase sigma factor gene (rpoS) in the stress response of Moraxella strain when exposed to radiation was determined by comparing the stress responses of the wild-type (WT) and its rpoS knockout (KO) mutant. The rpoS was turned on by starving the WT cultures for 24 h in minimal salt medium. Under non-starved condition, both WT and KO planktonic Moraxella cells showed an increase in mortality with the increase in duration of irradiation. In the planktonic non-starved Moraxella, for the power intensity tested, UV radiation caused a substantially higher mortality rate than did by the visible laser light (the mortality rate observed for 15-min laser radiation was 53.4 +/- 10.5 and 48.7 +/- 8.9 for WT and KO, respectively, and 97.6 +/- 0 and 98.5 +/- 0 for 25 s of UV irradiation in WT and KO, respectively). However, the mortality rate decreased significantly in the starved WT when exposed to these two radiations. In comparison, rpoS protected the WT against the visible laser light more effectively than it did for the UV radiation. The WT and KO strains of Moraxella formed distinctly different types of biofilms on stainless steel coupons. The KO strain formed a denser biofilm than did the WT. Visible laser light removed biofilms from the surfaces more effectively than did the UV. This was true when comparing the mortality of bacteria in the biofilms as well. The inability of UV radiation to penetrate biofilms due to greater rates of surface absorption is considered to be the major reason for the weaker removal of biofilms in comparison to that of the visible laser light. This result suggests that high power visible laser light might be an effective tool for the removal of biofilms. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

PubMed Central

Piuvezam, Grasiela; Medeiros, Wilton Rodrigues; Costa, Andressa Vellasco; Emerenciano, Felipe Fonseca; Santos, Renata Cristina; Seabra, Danilo Silveira

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country. Objective To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010. Methods This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA. Results There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males. Conclusion The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions. PMID:26559984

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; ...

2014-11-16

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Trends in cancer mortality in Mexico, 1981-2007.

PubMed

Bosetti, Cristina; Rodríguez, Teresa; Chatenoud, Liliane; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

2011-09-01

The objective of this study was to provide information on recent trends in cancer mortality in Mexico. We analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization, using joinpoint analysis to detect changes in trends between 1981 and 2007. For most cancers, mortality was upward but started to decline in the late 1980's/early 1990's for both sexes. Overall cancer mortality was 75.53/100 000 men, world standard, and 69.2/100 000 women in 2005-2007. Mortality from uterine cancer declined by approximately 2.5% per year in the 1990s, and by approximately 5% per year in the last decade, but its rates remained exceedingly high (9.7/100 000 in 2005-2007). Other major declines over recent years were those of stomach cancer (approximately 2.5% per year, with rates of 6.6/100 000 in men and 4.9/100 000 in women in 2005-2007) and lung cancer (2-2.5% per year, 11.0/100 000 in men and 4.5/100 000 in women in 2005-2007). Mortality leveled off only since the early 1990s for breast and prostate, and since the late 1990s for colorectal cancer. Death rates from cancer in Mexico remained low on a worldwide scale and showed favorable trends over more recent calendar years. Mortality from (cervix) uterine cancer still represents a major public health priority in this country.

Bacterial Sepsis in Brazilian Children: A Trend Analysis from 1992 to 2006

PubMed Central

Mangia, Cristina Malzoni Ferreira; Kissoon, Niranjan; Branchini, Otavio Augusto; Andrade, Maria Cristina; Kopelman, Benjamin Israel; Carcillo, Joe

2011-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiology of hospitalized pediatric sepsis in Brazil (1992–2006) and to compare mortality caused by sepsis to that caused by other major childhood diseases. Methods and Findings We performed a retrospective descriptive study of hospital admissions using a government database of all hospital affiliated with the Brazilian health system. We studied all hospitalizations in children from 28 days through 19 years with diagnosis of bacterial sepsis defined by the criteria of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), (Appendix S1). Based on the data studied from 1992 through 2006, the pediatric hospital mortality rate was 1.23% and there were 556,073 pediatric admissions with bacterial sepsis with a mean mortality rate of 19.9%. There was a case reduction of 67% over.1992–2006 (p<0.001); however, the mortality rate remained unchanged (from 1992–1996, 20.5%; and from 2002–2006, 19.7%). Sepsis-hospital mortality rate was substantially higher than pneumonia (0.5%), HIV (3.3%), diarrhea (0.3%), undernutrition (2.3%), malaria (0.2%) and measles (0.7%). The human development index (HDI) and mortality rates (MR) by region were: North region 0.76 and 21.7%; Northeast region 0.72 and 27.1%; Central-West 0.81 and 23.5%; South region 0.83 and 12.2% and Southeast region 0.82 and 14.8%, respectively. Conclusions We concluded that sepsis remains an important health problem in children in Brazil. The institution of universal primary care programs has been associated with substantially reduced sepsis incidence and therefore deaths; however, hospital mortality rates in children with sepsis remain unchanged. Implementation of additional health initiatives to reduce sepsis mortality in hospitalized patients could have great impact on childhood mortality rates in Brazil. PMID:21674036

Mortality trends and risk of dying from pulmonary tuberculosis in the 7 socioeconomic regions and the 32 States of Mexico, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Sánchez-Barriga, Juan Jesús

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is a world public health problem that still has a high morbidity and mortality rate mainly in countries with significant wealth gaps. Poverty, malnutrition, HIV infection, drug resistance, diabetes and addictions (mainly alcoholism) have been seen to contribute to the persistence of TB as an important health problem in Mexico. Death certificates associated with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) for 2000-2009 were obtained from the National Information System of the Secretariat of Health. Rates of mortality nationwide, by state, and by socioeconomic region were calculated. The strength of association between states where individuals resided, socioeconomic regions, and education with mortality from PTB was determined. Age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants who died from PTB decreased from 4.1 to 2 between 2000 and 2009. Men (67.7%) presented higher mortality than women (32.3%). Individuals failing to complete elementary education presented a higher risk of dying from PTB (RR 1.08 [95%CI: 1.05-1.12]). The socioeconomic region and the entities with the strongest association were region 1, 5, Chiapas and Baja California. Region 1 in 2007 presented RR 7.34 (95%CI: 5.32-10.13), and region 5 in 2009 had RR 10.08 (95%CI: 6.83-14.88). In Mexico, the annual mortality rate from PTB decreased. Men presented higher mortality than women. Individuals failing to complete elementary education showed a higher risk of dying from PTB. The states and regions of Mexico that presented a stronger association with mortality from PTB were Chiapas and Baja California, region 1 and 5. Copyright © 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the Performance Between Sepsis-1 and Sepsis-3 in ICUs in China: A Retrospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Cheng, Baoli; Li, Zhongwang; Wang, Jingya; Xie, Guohao; Liu, Xu; Xu, Zhipeng; Chu, Lihua; Zhao, Jialian; Yao, Yongming; Fang, Xiangming

2017-09-01

The definition of sepsis was updated to sepsis-3 in February 2016. However, the performance of the previous and new definition of sepsis remains unclear in China. This was a retrospective multicenter study in six intensive care unit (ICUs) from five university-affiliated hospitals to compare the performance between sepsis-1 and sepsis-3 in China. From May 1, 2016 to June 1, 2016, 496 patients were enrolled consecutively. Data were extracted from the electronic clinical records. We evaluated the performance of sepsis-1 and sepsis-3 by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) to predict 28-day mortality rates. Of 496 enrolled patients, 186 (37.5%) were diagnosed with sepsis according to sepsis-1, while 175 (35.3%) fulfilled the criteria of sepsis-3. The AUROC of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is significantly smaller than that of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) (0.55 [95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.64] vs. 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.77], P = 0.008) to predict 28-day mortality rates of infected patients. Moreover, 5.9% infected patients (11 patients) were diagnosed as sepsis according to sepsis-1 but not to sepsis-3. The APACHE II, SOFA scores, and mortality rate of the 11 patients were significantly lower than of patients whose sepsis was defined by both the previous and new criteria (8.6±3.5 vs. 16.3±6.2, P =  < 0.001; 1 (0-1) vs. 6 (4-8), P = <0.001; 0.0 vs. 33.1%, P = 0.019). In addition, the APACHE II, length of stay in ICU, and 28-day mortality rate of septic patients rose gradually corresponding with the raise in SOFA score (but not the SIRS score). Sepsis-3 performed better than sepsis-1 in the study samples in ICUs in China.

Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

2014-07-01

The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

26 CFR 1.664-2 - Charitable remainder annuity trust.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... children living at his death. (ii) Power to alter amount paid to recipients. A trust is not a charitable... so elected is the valuation date for purposes of determining the interest rate and mortality tables... determining the interest rate and mortality tables. The present value of an annuity is computed under § 20...

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis.

PubMed

Dubey, Manisha; Ram, Usha; Ram, Faujdar

2015-01-01

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981-2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India's 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1-59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.

Being born under adverse economic conditions leads to a higher cardiovascular mortality rate later in life: evidence based on individuals born at different stages of the business cycle.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Doblhammer-Reiter, Gabriele; Christensen, Kaare

2011-05-01

We connect the recent medical and economic literatures on the long-run effects of early-life conditions by analyzing the effects of economic conditions on the individual cardiovascular (CV) mortality rate later in life, using individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births since the 1870s and including the cause of death. To capture exogenous variation of conditions early in life, we use the state of the business cycle around birth. We find significant negative effects of economic conditions around birth on the individual CV mortality rate at higher ages. There is no effect on the cancer-specific mortality rate. From variation within and between monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs born under different conditions, we conclude that the fate of an individual is more strongly determined by genetic and household-environmental factors if early-life conditions are poor. Individual-specific qualities come more to fruition if the starting position in life is better.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

Risk of death during and after opiate substitution treatment in primary care: prospective observational study in UK General Practice Research Database

PubMed Central

Cornish, Rosie; Macleod, John; Strang, John; Vickerman, Peter

2010-01-01

Objective To investigate the effect of opiate substitution treatment at the beginning and end of treatment and according to duration of treatment. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting UK General Practice Research Database Participants Primary care patients with a diagnosis of substance misuse prescribed methadone or buprenorphine during 1990-2005. 5577 patients with 267 003 prescriptions for opiate substitution treatment followed-up (17 732 years) until one year after the expiry of their last prescription, the date of death before this time had elapsed, or the date of transfer away from the practice. Main outcome measures Mortality rates and rate ratios comparing periods in and out of treatment adjusted for sex, age, calendar year, and comorbidity; standardised mortality ratios comparing opiate users’ mortality with general population mortality rates. Results Crude mortality rates were 0.7 per 100 person years on opiate substitution treatment and 1.3 per 100 person years off treatment; standardised mortality ratios were 5.3 (95% confidence interval 4.0 to 6.8) on treatment and 10.9 (9.0 to 13.1) off treatment. Men using opiates had approximately twice the risk of death of women (morality rate ratio 2.0, 1.4 to 2.9). In the first two weeks of opiate substitution treatment the crude mortality rate was 1.7 per 100 person years: 3.1 (1.5 to 6.6) times higher (after adjustment for sex, age group, calendar period, and comorbidity) than the rate during the rest of time on treatment. The crude mortality rate was 4.8 per 100 person years in weeks 1-2 after treatment stopped, 4.3 in weeks 3-4, and 0.95 during the rest of time off treatment: 9 (5.4 to 14.9), 8 (4.7 to 13.7), and 1.9 (1.3 to 2.8) times higher than the baseline risk of mortality during treatment. Opiate substitution treatment has a greater than 85% chance of reducing overall mortality among opiate users if the average duration approaches or exceeds 12 months. Conclusions Clinicians and patients should be aware of the increased mortality risk at the start of opiate substitution treatment and immediately after stopping treatment. Further research is needed to investigate the effect of average duration of opiate substitution treatment on drug related mortality. PMID:20978062

[Coverage of nutritional and health programs in the low income strata].

PubMed

Cruzat, M A; González, N; Mardones, F; Moenne, A M; Sánchez, H

1982-06-01

The extent and consequences of exclusion of low income strata from maternal and child health programs in Chile are analyzed using available data. Infant mortality has been shown by several studies to be closely associated with socioeconomic status in Chile. Babies of illiterate mothers showed the highest rate of mortality and the least improvement in rate between 1972-78. The effect of socioeconomic status on the mortality rate of infants in greatly influenced by birth weight; low birth weight infants of low income groups suffer significantly higher mortality than among higher income groups. Several national studies in Chile demonstrated a relationship between infant malnutrition and health program coverage. Infant malnutrition is greatest in groups benefiting least from health care. Based on the fact that 90.5% of births in 1980 were professionally attended, it is estimated that 9.5% of the low income population lacks access to health care. A recent survey showed that 9.9% of the population under 6 years, some 105,848 children, was not covered by the National Complementary Feeding Program. Another study showed that 12.3% of mothers had no prenatal medical attention prior to their most recent birth; mothers with little or no education, living in rural areas, and of high parity were most likely not to have received medical attention. Factors responsible for lack of access to health and nutrition programs appeared to include unsatisfactory relationships with the health workers, poor acceptability of foods offered, excessive distance and waiting times, and lack of interest or motivation on the part of the mothers.

Variation in hospital mortality rates with inpatient cancer surgery.

PubMed

Wong, Sandra L; Revels, ShaʼShonda L; Yin, Huiying; Stewart, Andrew K; McVeigh, Andrea; Banerjee, Mousumi; Birkmeyer, John D

2015-04-01

To elucidate clinical mechanisms underlying variation in hospital mortality after cancer surgery : Thousands of Americans die every year undergoing elective cancer surgery. Wide variation in hospital mortality rates suggest opportunities for improvement, but these efforts are limited by uncertainty about why some hospitals have poorer outcomes than others. Using data from the 2006-2007 National Cancer Data Base, we ranked 1279 hospitals according to a composite measure of perioperative mortality after operations for bladder, esophagus, colon, lung, pancreas, and stomach cancers. We then conducted detailed medical record review of 5632 patients at 1 of 19 hospitals with low mortality rates (2.1%) or 30 hospitals with high mortality rates (9.1%). Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to compare risk-adjusted complication incidence and case-fatality rates among patients experiencing serious complications. The 7.0% absolute mortality difference between the 2 hospital groups could be attributed to higher mortality from surgical site, pulmonary, thromboembolic, and other complications. The overall incidence of complications was not different between hospital groups [21.2% vs 17.8%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.94]. In contrast, case-fatality after complications was more than threefold higher at high mortality hospitals than at low mortality hospitals (25.9% vs 13.6%; adjusted OR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.56-6.69). Low mortality and high mortality hospitals are distinguished less by their complication rates than by how frequently patients die after a complication. Strategies for ensuring the timely recognition and effective management of postoperative complications will be essential in reducing mortality after cancer surgery.

Short-term effect of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality: a case-crossover study in a tropical city, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-01-01

Many studies have examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between levels of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data. Further the results are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an association between PM(2.5) levels and daily mortality rate in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period from 2006 through 2008. The relative risk of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model (without adjustment for other pollutants), no significant effects were found between PM(2.5) and frequency of daily mortality on warm days (≥25°C). On cool days, PM(2.5) showed significant correlation with increased risk of mortality rate for all causes and circulatory diseases in single-pollutant model. There was no indication of an association between PM(2.5) and deaths due to respiratory diseases. The relationship appeared to be stronger on cool days. This study provided evidence of associations between short-term exposure to PM(2.5) and elevated risk of death for all cause and circulatory diseases.

Child mortality estimation 2013: an overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

PubMed Central

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

Background In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues. PMID:25013954

[Disparities of sex on cancer incidence and mortality in Jiashan county, Zhejiang province,1990-2014].

PubMed

Jiang, X Y; Hu, Y Q; Ye, D; Li, Q L; Chen, K; Jin, M J

2017-06-10

Objective: This study aimed to describe the sex disparities on cancer incidence and mortality in Jiashan population. Methods: All data concerning incident and death cases of cancers were gathered from the database of Cancer Registry in Jiashan county. Data from the 2010 China census was used as the standard population. Sex-specific age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 persons for all cancers and types of each cancer were calculated for the years of 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009, 2010 to 2014, and 1990 to 2014. In addition, the corresponding male-to-female incidence rate ratios ( IRRs ) and mortality rate ratios ( MRRs ) were also calculated. Results: The ASIR of all cancers was 226.13/10(5) for the whole period of 1990 to 2014, with 266.04/10(5) for males and 187.22/10(5) for females, respectively. The corresponding IRR was 1.42 (95 %CI : 1.39-1.46), with significant difference noticed in the incidence rates between males and females ( P <0.05). The ASMR of all cancers was 155.39/10(5), with 206.55/10(5) for males and 104.98/10(5) for females, respectively. The corresponding MRR was 1.97 (95 % CI : 1.91-2.03), with significant difference between males and females ( P <0.05). Among all the cancer types, only gallbladder cancer and thyroid cancer showed female predominance in both incidence and mortality, with male predominance in all the remaining cancers. Conclusion: Finding from our study suggested that a male predominance in both incidence and mortality for a majority of cancers in Jiashan population.

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Congenital heart disease mortality in Spain during a 10 year period (2003-2012)].

PubMed

Pérez-Lescure Picarzo, Javier; Mosquera González, Margarita; Latasa Zamalloa, Pello; Crespo Marcos, David

2018-05-01

Congenital heart disease is a major cause of infant mortality in developed countries. In Spain, there are no publications at national level on mortality due to congenital heart disease. The aim of this study is to analyse mortality in infants with congenital heart disease, lethality of different types of congenital heart disease, and their variation over a ten-year period. A retrospective observational study was performed to evaluate mortality rate of children under one year old with congenital heart disease, using the minimum basic data set, from 2003 to 2012. Mortality rate and relative risk of mortality were estimated by Poisson regression. There were 2,970 (4.58%) infant deaths in a population of 64,831 patients with congenital heart disease, with 73.8% of deaths occurring during first week of life. Infant mortality rate in patients with congenital heart disease was 6.23 per 10,000 live births, and remained constant during the ten-year period of the study, representing 18% of total infant mortality rate in Spain. The congenital heart diseases with highest mortality rates were hypoplastic left heart syndrome (41.4%), interruption of aortic arch (20%), and total anomalous pulmonary drainage (16.8%). Atrial septal defect (1%) and pulmonary stenosis (1.1%) showed the lowest mortality rate. Congenital heart disease was a major cause of infant mortality with no variations during the study period. The proportion of infants who died in our study was similar to other similar countries. In spite of current medical advances, some forms of congenital heart disease show very high mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of the INCREMENT-ESBL predictive score for mortality in patients with bloodstream infections due to extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae

PubMed Central

Palacios-Baena, Zaira Raquel; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Belén; De Cueto, Marina; Viale, Pierluigi; Venditti, Mario; Hernández-Torres, Alicia; Oliver, Antonio; Martínez-Martínez, Luis; Calbo, Esther; Pintado, Vicente; Gasch, Oriol; Almirante, Benito; Antonio Lepe, José; Pitout, Johann; Akova, Murat; Peña-Miralles, Carmen; Schwaber, Mitchell J.; Tumbarello, Mario; Tacconelli, Evelina; Origüen, Julia; Prim, Nuria; Bou, German; Giamarellou, Helen; Bermejo, Joaquín; Hamprecht, Axel; Pérez, Federico; Almela, Manuel; Lowman, Warren; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Navarro-San Francisco, Carolina; Torre-Cisneros, Julián; Carmeli, Yehuda; Bonomo, Robert A.; Paterson, David L.; Pascual, Álvaro; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús

2017-01-01

Background. Bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are frequent yet outcome prediction rules for clinical use have not been developed. The objective was to define and validate a predictive risk score for 30 day mortality. Methods. A multinational retrospective cohort study including consecutive episodes of BSI due to ESBL-E was performed; cases were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort (DC) or a validation cohort (VC). The main outcome variable was all-cause 30 day mortality. A predictive score was developed using logistic regression coefficients for the DC, then tested in the VC. Results. The DC and VC included 622 and 328 episodes, respectively. The final multivariate logistic regression model for mortality in the DC included age >50 years (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.18–5.85; 3 points), infection due to Klebsiella spp. (OR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.21–3.58; 2 points), source other than urinary tract (OR = 3.6; 95% CI: 2.02–6.44; 3 points), fatal underlying disease (OR = 3.91; 95% CI: 2.24–6.80; 4 points), Pitt score >3 (OR = 3.04; 95 CI: 1.69–5.47; 3 points), severe sepsis or septic shock at presentation (OR = 4.8; 95% CI: 2.72–8.46; 4 points) and inappropriate early targeted therapy (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.58–4.63; 2 points). The score showed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.85 in the DC and 0.82 in the VC. Mortality rates for patients with scores of < 11 and ≥11 were 5.6% and 45.9%, respectively, in the DC, and 5.4% and 34.8% in the VC. Conclusions. We developed and validated an easy-to-collect predictive scoring model for all-cause 30 day mortality useful for identifying patients at high and low risk of mortality. PMID:28062685

Estimation of birth population-based perinatal-neonatal mortality and preterm rate in China from a regional survey in 2010.

PubMed

Sun, L; Yue, H; Sun, B; Han, L; Qi, M; Tian, Z; Lu, S; Shan, C; Luo, J; Fan, Y; Li, S; Dong, M; Zuo, X; Zhang, Y; Lin, W; Xu, J; Heng, Y

2013-11-01

To estimate birth population-based perinatal-neonatal mortality and preterm rate in China from a regional survey in 2010. Data of total births in 2010 obtained from 151 level I-III hospitals in Huai'an, Jiangsu, were prospectively collected and analyzed. From 61,227 birth registries (including 60,986 live births and 241 stillbirths), we derive a birth rate of 11.3‰ (of 5.4 million regional population), a male-to-female ratio of 116:100 and valid data from 60,615 newborns. Mean birth weight (BW) was 3441 ± 491 g with 13.6% macrosomia. Low BW was 2.8% (1691/60,372) with 8.83% mortality. Preterm rate was 3.72% (2239/60,264) with 7.61% mortality. Cesarean section rate was 52.9% (31,964/60,445), multiple pregnancy 1.8% (1088/60,567) and birth defects 6.7‰ (411/61,227). There were 97.4% healthy newborns and 2.2% (1298) requiring hospitalized after birth. The perinatal mortality was 7.7‰ (471/61,227, including 241 stillbirths, 230 early neonatal deaths). The neonatal mortality was 4.4‰ (269/60,986). The main causes of neonatal death were birth asphyxia (24.5%), respiratory diseases (21.5%), prematurity related organ dysfunction (18.5%) and congenital anomalies (7.7%), whereas incidence of congenital heart disease and respiratory distress syndrome was 8.6‰ and 6.1‰, respectively. This regional birth population-based data file contains low perinatal-neonatal mortality rates, associated with low proportion of LBW and preterm births, and incidences of major neonatal disease, by which we estimate, in a nationwide perspective, in 16 million annual births, preterm births should be around 800,000, perinatal and neonatal mortality may be 128,000-144,000 and 80,000-96,000, respectively, along with 100,000 respiratory distress syndrome.

Impact of carbapenem resistance on the outcome of patients' hospital-acquired bacteraemia caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae.

PubMed

Hussein, K; Raz-Pasteur, A; Finkelstein, R; Neuberger, A; Shachor-Meyouhas, Y; Oren, I; Kassis, I

2013-04-01

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, especially Klebsiella spp., have become a major health problem recently worldwide. Since 2006 the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections has increased substantially in Israel. Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by these strains have been associated with high rates of treatment failure and mortality. This study was designed to identify risk factors for carbapenem resistance among patients with healthcare-related (HCR) K. pneumoniae bacteraemia and predictors of mortality associated with HCR-CRKP bacteraemia compared with carbapenem-susceptible K. pneumoniae (CSKP). In this retrospective case-control study, all cases of K. pneumoniae bacteraemia during 2006-2008 were identified. Resistance patterns, underlying morbidities, risk factors for drug resistance and mortality rates were compared for patients with CRKP and CSKP bacteraemia. Two hundred and fourteen patients with CSKP bacteraemia were compared with 103 patients with CRKP bacteraemia. Severe, chronic comorbidities and prior antibiotic use were more frequent among patients with CRKP bacteraemia. On multivariate analysis prior use of macrolides and antibiotic exposure for ≥14 days remained the only independent factors associated with CRKP bacteraemia. Mortality rates of CRKP patients were significantly higher than those of CSKP patients. On multivariate analyses: bedridden status, chronic liver disease, Charlson comorbidity index ≥5, mechanical ventilation, and haemodialysis remained independently associated with mortality among patients with K. pneumoniae bacteraemia. Carbapenem resistance was not a risk factor for mortality. Previous antibiotic exposure is a risk factor for CRKP-BSI. Mortality among patients with K. pneumoniae bacteraemia is associated with serious comorbidities, but not with carbapenem resistance. Copyright © 2012 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographic distribution of dementia mortality: elevated mortality rates for black and white Americans by place of birth.

PubMed

Glymour, M Maria; Kosheleva, Anna; Wadley, Virginia G; Weiss, Christopher; Manly, Jennifer J

2011-01-01

We hypothesized that patterns of elevated stroke mortality among those born in the United States Stroke Belt (SB) states also prevailed for mortality related to all-cause dementia or Alzheimer Disease. Cause-specific mortality (contributing cause of death, including underlying cause cases) rates in 2000 for United States-born African Americans and whites aged 65 to 89 years were calculated by linking national mortality records with population data based on race, sex, age, and birth state or state of residence in 2000. Birth in a SB state (NC, SC, GA, TN, AR, MS, or AL) was cross-classified against SB residence at the 2000 Census. Compared with those who were not born in the SB, odds of all-cause dementia mortality were significantly elevated by 29% for African Americans and 19% for whites born in the SB. These patterns prevailed among individuals who no longer lived in the SB at death. Patterns were similar for Alzheimer Disease-related mortality. Some non-SB states were also associated with significant elevations in dementia-related mortality. Dementia mortality rates follow geographic patterns similar to stroke mortality, with elevated rates among those born in the SB. This suggests important roles for geographically patterned childhood exposures in establishing cognitive reserve.

Total prevention of folic acid-preventable spina bifida and anencephaly would reduce child mortality in India: Implications in achieving Target 3.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals.

PubMed

Kancherla, Vijaya; Oakley, Godfrey P

2018-03-15

The potential to reduce child mortality by preventing folic acid-preventable spina bifida and anencephaly (FAP SBA) is inadequately appreciated. To quantify possible reduction in FAP SBA-associated child mortality in low- and middle-income countries, we conducted an analysis to demonstrate in India, a country with more than 25 million births and 1.2 million under-five deaths each year, the decrease in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality that would occur through total prevention of FAP SBA. We estimated the percent reductions in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality that would have occurred in India in 2015 had all of FAP SBA been prevented. We also estimated the contributions of these reductions toward India's Sustainable Development Goals on child mortality indicators. We considered the overall prevalence of spina bifida and anencephaly in India as 5 per 1,000 live births, of which 90% were preventable with effective folic acid intervention. In the year 2015, folic acid interventions would have prevented about 116,070 cases of FAP SBA and 101,565 under-five deaths associated with FAP SBA. Prevention of FAP SBA would have reduced annually, neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality by 10.2%, 8.9%, and 8.3%, respectively. These reductions would have contributed 18.5% and 17.2% to the reductions in neonatal and under-five mortality, respectively, needed by India to achieve its 2030 Sustainable Developmental Goal Target 3.2 addressing preventable child mortality. Total prevention of FAP SBA clearly has a significant potential for immediate reductions in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in India, and similarly other countries. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cross-National Systematic Review of Neonatal Mortality and Postnatal Newborn Care: Special Focus on Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mansoor; Won, Youngjoon

2017-11-23

The latest nationwide survey of Pakistan showed that considerable progress has been made toward reducing all child mortality indicators except neonatal mortality. The aim of this study is to compare Pakistan's under-five mortality, neonatal mortality, and postnatal newborn care rates with those of other countries. Neonatal mortality rates and postnatal newborn care rates from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of nine low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) from Asia and Africa were analyzed. Pakistan's maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) policies and programs, which have been implemented in the country since 1990, were also analyzed. The results highlighted that postnatal newborn care in Pakistan was higher compared with the rest of countries, yet its neonatal mortality remained the worst. In Zimbabwe, both mortality rates have been increasing, whereas the neonatal mortality rates in Nepal and Afghanistan remained unchanged. An analysis of Pakistan's MNCH programs showed that there is no nationwide policy on neonatal health. There were only a few programs concerning the health of newborns, and those were limited in scale. Pakistan's example shows that increased coverage of neonatal care without ensuring quality is unlikely to improve neonatal survival rates. It is suggested that Pakistan needs a comprehensive policy on neonatal health similar to other countries, and its effective programs need to be scaled up, in order to obtain better neonatal health outcomes.

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminthiases-related mortality in Brazil.

PubMed

Martins-Melo, Francisco R; Ramos, Alberto N; Alencar, Carlos H; Lima, Mauricélia S; Heukelbach, Jorg

2017-04-01

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are widely distributed in tropical and subtropical areas, including Brazil. We performed a nationwide population-based study including all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which STHs (ascariasis, trichuriasis and/or hookworm infection) were mentioned on death certificates, either as underlying or as associated causes of death. Epidemiological characteristics, time trends and spatial analysis of STH-related mortality were analysed. STHs was identified on 853/12 491 280 death certificates: 827 (97·0%) deaths related to ascariasis, 25 (2·9%) to hookworm infections, and 1 (0·1%) to trichuriasis. The average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0·34/1 000 000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 0·27-0·44). Females, children <10 years of age, indigenous ethnic groups and residents in the Northeast region had highest STH-related mortality rates. Nationwide mortality decreased significantly over time (annual percent change: -5·7%; 95% CI: -6·9 to -4·4), with regional differences. We identified spatial high-risk clusters for STH-related mortality mainly in the North, Northeast and South regions. Diseases of the digestive system and infectious/parasitic diseases were the most commonly associated causes of death mentioned in the STH-related deaths. Despite decreasing mortality in Brazil, a considerable number of deaths is caused by STHs, with ascariasis responsible for the vast majority. There were marked regional differences, affecting mainly children and vulnerable populations.

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing in reducing colorectal cancer mortality from the One Million Taiwanese Screening Program.

PubMed

Chiu, Han-Mo; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Pan, Shin-Liang; Wu, Ming-Shiang; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Koong, Shin-Lan; Chiou, Shu-Ti

2015-09-15

The effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality has not yet been fully assessed in a large, population-based service screening program. A prospective cohort study of the follow-up of approximately 5 million Taiwanese from 2004 to 2009 was conducted to compare CRC mortality for an exposed (screened) group and an unexposed (unscreened) group in a population-based CRC screening service targeting community residents of Taiwan who were 50 to 69 years old. Given clinical capacity, this nationwide screening program was first rolled out in 2004. In all, 1,160,895 eligible subjects who were 50 to 69 years old (ie, 21.4% of the 5,417,699 subjects of the underlying population) participated in the biennial nationwide screening program by 2009. The actual effectiveness in reducing CRC mortality attributed to the FIT screening was 62% (relative rate for the screened group vs the unscreened group, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.42) with a maximum follow-up of 6 years. The 21.4% coverage of the population receiving FIT led to a significant 10% reduction in CRC mortality (relative rate, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.95) after adjustments for a self-selection bias. This large, prospective Taiwanese cohort undergoing population-based FIT screening for CRC had the statistical power to demonstrate a significant CRC mortality reduction, although the follow-up time was short. Although such findings are informative for health decision makers, continued follow-up of this large cohort will be required to estimate the long-term impact of FIT screening if the covered population is expanded. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Pregnancy during breast cancer: does a mother's parity status modify an offspring's mortality risk?

PubMed

Simonella, Leonardo; Verkooijen, Helena M; Edgren, Gustaf; Liu, Jenny; Hui, Miao; Salim, Agus; Czene, Kamila; Hartman, Mikael

2014-07-01

To assess whether children born to primiparous women around the time of a breast cancer diagnosis have an increased mortality risk. From the merged Swedish Multi-Generation and Cancer Registers, we identified 49,750 eligible children whose mother was diagnosed with breast cancer between 1958 and 2010. Mortality rates in offspring were compared to the background population using standardized mortality ratios (SMR), adjusted for calendar year of birth, attained age, and sex, and calculated for each category of timing of delivery (before, around, or after mother's diagnosis) and mother's parity status. Hazard ratios were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model and adjusted for socioeconomic status, year of birth and mother's age at birth. Children born to a primiparous woman around a breast cancer diagnosis had a mortality rate five times greater than the background population (SMR 5.26, 95 % CI 1.93-11.5), whereas children born to a multiparous woman had a twofold increase (SMR 2.40, 95 % CI 1.10-4.55). Children of primiparous women born around diagnosis had an adjusted hazard ratio fourfold to that of children of primiparous women born before their mother's diagnosis (HR 4.29, 95 % CI 1.68-8.91), whereas hazard ratios for children of primiparous or multiparous women born at other times were not statistically significant. Children born to primiparous women around a breast cancer diagnosis have an increased relative mortality risk. Although relative risk is increased, in absolute terms children born from a cancer complicated pregnancy do relatively well. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the reason(s) underlying this observation before the information can be used to inform patient counseling and clinical care.

Anesthesia-related and perioperative mortality: An audit of 8493 cases at a tertiary pediatric teaching hospital in South Africa.

PubMed

Meyer, Heidi M; Thomas, Jenny; Wilson, Graeme S; de Kock, Marianna

2017-10-01

This study aimed to quantify the incidence of anesthesia-related and perioperative mortality at a large tertiary pediatric hospital in South Africa. This study included all children aged <18 years who died prior to discharge from hospital and within 30 days of their last anesthetic at the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital between January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015. A panel of three senior anesthetists reviewed each death to reach a consensus as to whether: (i) anesthesia caused the death; (ii) anesthesia may have contributed to or influenced the timing of death; or (iii) anesthesia was entirely unrelated to the death. There were 47 deaths within 30 days of anesthesia prior to discharge from hospital during this 12-month period. The in-hospital mortality within 24 h of administration of anesthesia was 16.5 per 10 000 cases (95% confidence intervals [CI]=7.8-25.1) and within 30 days of administration of anesthesia was 55.3 per 10 000 cases (95% CI=39.5-71.2). Age under 1 year (OR 4.5; 95% CI=2.5-8.0, P=.012) and cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology procedures (OR 2.5; 95% CI=1.2-5.2, P<.01) were both independent predictors of increased risk of perioperative mortality. The overall 24-h and 30-day anesthesia-related and in-hospital perioperative mortality rates in our study are comparable with other similar studies from tertiary pediatric centers. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term field performance of a polyester-based long-lasting insecticidal mosquito net in rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Kilian, Albert; Byamukama, Wilson; Pigeon, Olivier; Atieli, Francis; Duchon, Stephan; Phan, Chi

2008-01-01

Background In order to evaluate whether criteria for LLIN field performance (phase III) set by the WHO Pesticide Evaluation Scheme are met, first and second generations of one of these products, PermaNet®, a polyester net using the coating technology were tested. Methods A randomized, double blinded study design was used comparing LLIN to conventionally treated nets and following LLIN for three years under regular household use in rural conditions. Primary outcome measures were deltamethrin residue and bioassay performance (60 minute knock-down and 24 hour mortality after a three minute exposure) using a strain of Anopheles gambiae s.s. sensitive to pyrethroid insecticides. Results Baseline concentration of deltamethrin was within targets for all net types but was rapidly lost in conventionally treated nets and first generation PermaNet® with median of 0.7 and 2.5 mg/m2 after six months respectively. In contrast, second generation PermaNet® retained insecticide well and had 41.5% of baseline dose after 36 months (28.7 mg/m2). Similarly, vector mortality and knockdown dropped to 18% and 70% respectively for first generation LLIN after six months but remained high (88.5% and 97.8% respectively) for second generation PermaNet® after 36 months of follow up at which time 90.0% of nets had either a knockdown rate ≥ 95% or mortality rate ≥ 80%. Conclusion Second generation PermaNet® showed excellent results after three years of field use and fulfilled the WHOPES criteria for LLIN. Loss of insecticide on LLIN using coating technology under field conditions was far more influenced by factors associated with handling rather than washing. PMID:18355408

"Look at the Whole Me": A Mixed-Methods Examination of Black Infant Mortality in the US through Women's Lived Experiences and Community Context.

PubMed

Wallace, Maeve E; Green, Carmen; Richardson, Lisa; Theall, Katherine; Crear-Perry, Joia

2017-07-05

In the US, the non-Hispanic Black infant mortality rate exceeds the rate among non-Hispanic Whites by more than two-fold. To explore factors underlying this persistent disparity, we employed a mixed methods approach with concurrent quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. Eighteen women participated in interviews about their experience of infant loss. Several common themes emerged across interviews, grouped by domain: individual experiences (trauma, grieving and counseling; criminalization); negative interactions with healthcare providers and the healthcare system; and broader contextual factors. Concurrently, we estimated the Black infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births) using linked live birth-infant death records from 2010 to 2013 in every metropolitan statistical area in the US. Poisson regression examined how contextual indicators of population health, socioeconomic conditions of the Black population, and features of the communities in which they live were associated with Black infant mortality and inequity in Black-White infant mortality rates across 100 metropolitan statistical areas with the highest Black infant mortality rates. We used principal components analysis to create a Birth Equity Index in order to examine the collective impact of contextual indicators on Black infant mortality and racial inequity in mortality rates. The association between the Index and Black infant mortality was stronger than any single indicator alone: in metropolitan areas with the worst social, economic, and environmental conditions, Black infant mortality rates were on average 1.24 times higher than rates in areas where conditions were better (95% CI = 1.16, 1.32). The experiences of Black women in their homes, neighborhoods, and health care centers and the contexts in which they live may individually and collectively contribute to persistent racial inequity in infant mortality.

“Look at the Whole Me”: A Mixed-Methods Examination of Black Infant Mortality in the US through Women’s Lived Experiences and Community Context

PubMed Central

Wallace, Maeve E.; Green, Carmen; Richardson, Lisa; Theall, Katherine; Crear-Perry, Joia

2017-01-01

In the US, the non-Hispanic Black infant mortality rate exceeds the rate among non-Hispanic Whites by more than two-fold. To explore factors underlying this persistent disparity, we employed a mixed methods approach with concurrent quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. Eighteen women participated in interviews about their experience of infant loss. Several common themes emerged across interviews, grouped by domain: individual experiences (trauma, grieving and counseling; criminalization); negative interactions with healthcare providers and the healthcare system; and broader contextual factors. Concurrently, we estimated the Black infant mortality rate (deaths per 1000 live births) using linked live birth-infant death records from 2010 to 2013 in every metropolitan statistical area in the US. Poisson regression examined how contextual indicators of population health, socioeconomic conditions of the Black population, and features of the communities in which they live were associated with Black infant mortality and inequity in Black–White infant mortality rates across 100 metropolitan statistical areas with the highest Black infant mortality rates. We used principal components analysis to create a Birth Equity Index in order to examine the collective impact of contextual indicators on Black infant mortality and racial inequity in mortality rates. The association between the Index and Black infant mortality was stronger than any single indicator alone: in metropolitan areas with the worst social, economic, and environmental conditions, Black infant mortality rates were on average 1.24 times higher than rates in areas where conditions were better (95% CI = 1.16, 1.32). The experiences of Black women in their homes, neighborhoods, and health care centers and the contexts in which they live may individually and collectively contribute to persistent racial inequity in infant mortality. PMID:28678200

Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Barlas, C.; Giannadaki, D.; Pozzer, A.

2013-03-01

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimated the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. We carried out high-resolution global model calculations to resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. We applied a health impact function to estimate premature mortality for people of 30 yr and older, using parameters derived from epidemiological cohort studies. Our results suggest that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have previously been underestimated. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand yr-1 (YLL ≈ 5.2 million yr-1), 186 thousand yr-1 by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million yr-1) and 2.0 million yr-1 by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million yr-1). The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1 % yr-1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

Effects of Hurricane Katrina on nursing facility resident mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline.

PubMed

Dosa, David; Feng, Zhanlian; Hyer, Kathy; Brown, Lisa M; Thomas, Kali; Mor, Vincent

2010-09-01

The study was designed to examine the 30- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates among nursing facility (NF) residents in the affected areas of Louisiana and Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina and to assess the rate of significant posthurricane functional decline. A secondary data analysis was conducted using Medicare claims merged with NF resident data from the Minimum Data Set. Thirty- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates for long-stay (>90 days) residents residing in 141 at-risk NFs during Hurricane Katrina were compared to rates for residents residing at the same facilities during the same time period in prior nonhurricane years (2003 and 2004). Functional decline was assessed as a 4+ drop in function using a 28-point Minimum Data Set Activities of Daily Living Scale. There were statistically significant differences (all P < .0001) in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline among residents exposed to Hurricane Katrina. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 3.88% among the exposed cohort compared with 2.10% and 2.28% for residents in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The 90-day mortality rate was 9.27% compared with 6.71% and 6.31%, respectively. These mortality differences translated into an additional 148 deaths at 30 days and 230 deaths at 90 days. The 30-day hospitalization rate was 9.87% compared with 7.21% and 7.53%, respectively. The 90-day hospitalization rate was 20.39% compared with 18.61% and 17.82%, respectively. Finally, the rate of significant functional decline among survivors was 6.77% compared with 5.81% in 2003 and 5.10% in 2004. NF residents experienced a significant increase in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline during Hurricane Katrina.

Trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Juliana Z; Duhau, Mariana; Speranza, Ana

2016-06-01

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an indicator of the health status of a population and of the quality of and access to health care services. In 2000, and within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals, Argentina committed to achieve by 2015 a reduction by two thirds of its 1990 infant mortality rate, and to identify and close inter-jurisdictional gaps. The objective of this article is to describe the trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina and interjurisdictional gaps, infant mortality magnitude and causes, in compliance with the Millennium Development Goals. A descriptive study on infant mortality was conducted in Argentina in 1990 and between 2000 and 2013, based on vital statistics data published by the Health Statistics and Information Department of the Ministry of Health of Argentina. The following reductions were confirmed: 57.8% in IMR, 52.6% in neonatal mortality rate and 63.8% in post-neonatal mortality rate. The inter-provincial Gini coefficient for IMR decreased by 27%. The population attributable risk decreased by 16.6% for IMR, 38.8% for neonatal mortality rate and 51.5% for post-neonatal mortality rate in 2013 versus 1990. A significant reduction in infant mortality and its components has been shown, but not enough to meet the Millennium Development Goals. The reduction in IMR gaps reached the set goal; however, inequalities still persist. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001-12: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Lazzerini, Marzia; Seward, Nadine; Lufesi, Norman; Banda, Rosina; Sinyeka, Sophie; Masache, Gibson; Nambiar, Bejoy; Makwenda, Charles; Costello, Anthony; McCollum, Eric D; Colbourn, Tim

2016-01-01

Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi's Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children's clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2-11 months of age, and 12-59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92·7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4-6·7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4-17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1-4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2-11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Lazzerini et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Mortality during the first year of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients in 7 sites throughout Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Although nearly 2 million people live with HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean, mortality rates after initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have not been well-described. Methods 5,152 HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naïve adults from clinics in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru starting HAART during 1996–2007 were included. First-year mortality rates and their association with demographics, regimen, baseline CD4, and clinical stage were assessed. Results Overall 1-year mortality rate was 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]:7.6–9.1%), although variable across sites: 2.6, 3.7, 6.0, 13.0, 10.8, 3.5, and 9.8% for clinics in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru, respectively. 80% of deaths occurred within the first 6 months. Median baseline CD4 was 107 cells/μL, ranging from 79 (Peru) to 163 (Argentina). Mortality estimates adjusting for CD4 were similar across sites (1.1–2.8% for CD4=200), except for Haiti, 7.5%, and Honduras, 7.0%. Death was associated with lower CD4 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CD4=200 vs CD4=50 was 0.58; 95% CI:0.40–0.85) and clinical AIDS (HR=3.1; 95% CI:2.1–4.5). Conclusions Mortality rates were similar to those reported elsewhere for resource-limited settings. Disease stage at HAART initiation, treatment eligibility criteria, program age, and background mortality rates may explain some variability in prognosis between sites. PMID:19430306

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Toua, Rene Elaine; de Kock, Jacques Erasmus; Welzel, Tyson

2016-02-01

Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surgical mortality - an analysis of all deaths within a general surgical department.

PubMed

Heeney, A; Hand, F; Bates, J; Mc Cormack, O; Mealy, K

2014-06-01

Post-operative mortality is one of the most universal and important outcomes that can be measured in surgical practice and is increasingly used to measure quality of care. The aim of this study was to evaluate overall mortality within a surgical department and to analyse factors associated with operative and non-operative death. We analysed prospectively collected data detailing all surgical admissions, procedures and mortalities over a twelve year period (2000-2012) from a regional Irish hospital. We evaluated type of operation, patient factors and cause of death. A total of 62 085 patients were admitted under surgical care between the 1st of January 2000 and the 31st of December 2011. There were a total of 578 deaths during this period (0.93% overall mortality rate). 415 deaths (71.8%) occurred in non-operative patients in which advanced cancer (36.5%), sepsis (14.9%), cardiorespiratory failure (13.2%) and trauma (11%) were the primary causes. A total of 22 788 surgical procedures were performed with an operative mortality rate of 0.71%. Mortality rate following elective surgery was 0.17% and following emergency surgery was 10-fold higher (1.7%). The main cause of post-operative death was sepsis (30.02%). Emergency operations, increasing age and major procedures significantly increased mortality risk (p < 0.001). Post-operative deaths comprise a small proportion of overall deaths within a surgical service. Mortality figures alone are not an accurate representation of surgical performance but in the absence of other easily available quality outcome measures they can be used as a surrogate marker when all confounding factors are accounted for. Copyright © 2013 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SUDEP and other causes of mortality in childhood-onset epilepsy.

PubMed

Sillanpää, Matti; Shinnar, Shlomo

2013-08-01

There are few prospective studies on the causes of mortality in well-characterized cohorts with epilepsy and even fewer that have autopsy data that allow for reliable determination of SUDEP. We report causes of mortality and mortality rates in the Finnish cohort with childhood-onset epilepsy. A population-based cohort of 245 children with epilepsy in 1964 has been prospectively followed for almost 40 years. Seizure outcomes and mortality were assessed. Autopsy data were available in 70% of the cases. Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) rates were assessed, and SUDEP was confirmed by autopsy. During the follow-up, 60 subjects died. The major risk factor for mortality was lack of terminal remission (p < 0.0001). Remote symptomatic etiology also increased the risk for death (p < 0.0001) but did not remain significant on multivariate analysis after adjusting for effect of remission. Of the deaths, 33/60 (55%) were epilepsy-related including SUDEP in 23/60 (38%) using the Nashef criteria, status epilepticus in 4/60 (7%), and accidental drowning in 6/60 (10%). The nonepilepsy-related deaths occurred primarily in the remote symptomatic group and were often related to the underlying disorder or to medical comorbidities that developed after the onset of the epilepsy. Risk factors for SUDEP on multivariable analysis included lack of 5-year terminal remission and not having a localization-related epilepsy. In cryptogenic/idiopathic cases, SUDEP did not occur in childhood but begins only in adolescence. Childhood-onset epilepsy is associated with a substantial risk of epilepsy-related mortality, primarily SUDEP. In otherwise neurologically normal individuals, the increased SUDEP risk begins in adolescence. The higher mortality rates reported in this cohort are related to duration of follow-up as most of the mortality occurs many years after the onset of the epilepsy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Liver cirrhosis in England-an observational study: are we measuring its burden occurrence correctly?

PubMed

Ratib, Sonia; West, Joe; Fleming, Kate M

2017-07-13

Mortality due to liver disease (of which cirrhosis is the end stage) is increasing more than any other chronic condition in the UK. This study aims to demonstrate that (1) exclusive reliance on mortality rates may not reveal the true burden of liver cirrhosis, and (2) diverse use of diagnostic coding may produce misleading estimates. Observational study. The Office for National Statistics death registry was interrogated to investigate liver cirrhosis mortality trends in England and Wales from 1968 to 2011. Standardised mortality trends according to three different definitions of liver cirrhosis based on the specificity of diagnostic codes were calculated: 1 (chronic liver diseases), 2 (alcoholic and unspecified cirrhosis only) and 3 (cirrhosis as end-stage liver disease). The mortality trends were compared with incidence rates established in a previous population-based study (based on definition 3), from 1998 to 2009, to investigate discrepancies between these two measures. Over the study period, the overall standardised liver cirrhosis mortality rates were 8.8, 5,1 and 5.4 per 100 000 person-years for definitions 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The mortality rates for definition 3 in 1998 and 2009 were 6.2 and 5.9 per 100 000 person-years, respectively; while the equivalent incidence rates were at least threefold and sixfold higher: 23.4 and 35.9 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. This discrepancy between incidence and mortality rates was also at least threefold in men and women separately and across age groups. Mortality rates underestimated the incidence of liver cirrhosis by at least threefold between 1998 and 2009 and varied with differing definitions of disease. Mortality data should not be used exclusively as an indicator for the occurrence of liver cirrhosis in the population. Routinely collected healthcare data are available to measure occurrence of this disease. Careful consideration should be taken when selecting diagnostic codes for cirrhosis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The Effects of an Integrated Community Case Management Strategy on the Appropriate Treatment of Children and Child Mortality in Kono District, Sierra Leone: A Program Evaluation.

PubMed

Ratnayake, Ruwan; Ratto, Jeffrey; Hardy, Colleen; Blanton, Curtis; Miller, Laura; Choi, Mary; Kpaleyea, John; Momoh, Pheabean; Barbera, Yolanda

2017-09-01

Integrated community case management (iCCM) aims to reduce child mortality in areas with poor access to health care. iCCM was implemented in 2009 in Kono district, Sierra Leone, a postconflict area with high under-five mortality rates (U5MRs). We evaluated iCCM's impact and effects on child health using cluster surveys in 2010 (midterm) and 2013 (endline) to compare indicators on child mortality, coverage of appropriate treatment, timely access to care, quality of care, and recognition of community health workers (CHWs). The sample size was powered to detect a 28% decline in U5MR. Clusters were selected proportional to population size. All households were sampled to measure mortality and systematic random sampling was used to measure coverage in a subset of households. We used program data to evaluate utilization and access; 5,257 (2010) and 3,649 (2013) households were surveyed. U5MR did not change significantly (4.54 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.47-5.60] to 3.95 [95% CI: 3.06-4.83] deaths per 1,000 per month ( P = 0.4)) though a relative change smaller than 28% could not be detected. CHWs were the first source of care for 52% (2010) and 50.9% (2013) of children. Coverage of appropriate treatment of fever by CHWs or peripheral health units increased from 45.5% [95% CI: 39.2-52.0] to 58.2% [95% CI: 50.5-65.5] ( P = 0.01); changes for diarrhea and pneumonia were not significant. The continued reliance on the CHW as the first source of care and improved coverage for the appropriate treatment of fever support iCCM's role in Kono district.

Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

2017-05-01

Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

Reducing the global burden of Preterm Birth through knowledge transfer and exchange: a research agenda for engaging effectively with policymakers.

PubMed

Yamey, Gavin; Horváth, Hacsi; Schmidt, Laura; Myers, Janet; Brindis, Claire D

2016-03-18

Preterm birth (PTB) is the world's leading cause of death in children under 5 years. In 2013, over one million out of six million child deaths were due to complications of PTB. The rate of decline in child death overall has far outpaced the rate of decline attributable to PTB. Three key reasons for this slow progress in reducing PTB mortality are: (a) the underlying etiology and biological mechanisms remain unknown, presenting a challenge to discovering ways to prevent and treat the condition; (ii) while there are several evidence-based interventions that can reduce the risk of PTB and associated infant mortality, the coverage rates of these interventions in low- and middle-income countries remain very low; and (c) the gap between knowledge and action on PTB--the "know-do gap"--has been a major obstacle to progress in scaling up the use of existing evidence-based child health interventions, including those to prevent and treat PTB.In this review, we focus on the know-do gap in PTB as it applies to policymakers. The evidence-based approaches to narrowing this gap have become known as knowledge transfer and exchange (KTE). In our paper, we propose a research agenda for promoting KTE with policymakers, with an ambitious but realistic goal of reducing the global burden of PTB. We hope that our proposed research agenda stimulates further debate and discussion on research priorities to soon bend the curve of PTB mortality.

Efficacy of Silicosec, a diatomaceous earth formulation against Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae).

PubMed

Ziaee, Masumeh; Safaralizadeh, Mohammad H; Shayesteh, Nouraddin

2007-11-01

Laboratory bioassays were carried out to evaluate the insecticidal efficacy of SilicoSec against 7- 14-days-old adults of Tribolium castaneum; old and young larvae with the mean weight of 3.4 +/- 0.1 and 0.6 +/- 0.1 mg, respectively at 27 degrees C and 55 +/- 5% r.h in the dark. Wheat treated with four dose rates of SilicoSec with three replications. Adult's mortality was measured after 2, 7 and 14 days of exposure. After 14 days mortality count, all adults were removed and samples retained under the same conditions for a further 60 days to assess progeny production. In the case of larvae, mortality was counted after 1, 2 and 7 days. After 2 days of exposure no concentration achieved 11% mortality for adults, however; adult's mortality exceeds 89.65% when exposed for 7 days to SilicoSec. Mortality of old and young larvae at 0.6 g kg(-1) after 2 days were 28.88 and 22.22%, respectively and exceed to 60.71 and 69.04% at longer exposure of 7 days. Results indicated that mortality of T. castaneum was influenced by interval exposed to wheat treated with SilicoSec and over this exposure; the increases in application rate of SilicoSec had significant effect on the mortality. Young larvae of red flour beetle were more sensitive to SilicoSec than old larvae and adults were more tolerant. Reproductive potential of adults in the treated wheat was suppressed when compared with untreated wheat. The high retention level of SilicoSec (78.62%) was noted in wheat kernels.

High cancer-related mortality in an urban, predominantly African-American, HIV-infected population.

PubMed

Riedel, David J; Mwangi, Evelyn Ivy W; Fantry, Lori E; Alexander, Carla; Hossain, Mian B; Pauza, C David; Redfield, Robert R; Gilliam, Bruce L

2013-04-24

To determine mortality associated with a new cancer diagnosis in an urban, predominantly African-American, HIV-infected population. Retrospective cohort study. All HIV-infected patients diagnosed with cancer between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2010 were reviewed. Mortality was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models. There were 470 cases of cancer among 447 patients. Patients were predominantly African-American (85%) and male (79%). Non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs, 69%) were more common than AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs, 31%). Cumulative cancer incidence increased significantly over the study period. The majority (55.9%) was taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) at cancer diagnosis or started afterward (26.9%); 17.2% never received ART. Stage 3 or 4 cancer was diagnosed in 67%. There were 226 deaths during 1096 person years of follow-up, yielding an overall mortality rate of 206 per 1000 person years. The cumulative mortality rate at 30 days, 1 year, and 2 years was 6.5, 32.2, and 41.4%, respectively. Mortality was similar between patients on ART whether they started before or after the cancer diagnosis but was higher in patients who never received ART. In patients with a known cause of death, 68% were related to progression of the underlying cancer. In a large cohort of urban, predominantly African-American patients with HIV and cancer, many patients presented with late-stage cancer. There was substantial 30-day and 2-year mortality, although ART had a significant mortality benefit. Deaths were most often caused by progression of cancer and not from another HIV-related or AIDS-related event.

Towards a capability approach to child growth: A theoretical framework.

PubMed

Haisma, Hinke; Yousefzadeh, Sepideh; Boele Van Hensbroek, Pieter

2018-04-01

Child malnutrition is an important cause of under-5 mortality and morbidity around the globe. Despite the partial success of (inter)national efforts to reduce child mortality, under-5 mortality rates continue to be high. The multidimensional approaches of the Sustainable Development Goals may suggest new directions for rethinking strategies for reducing child mortality and malnutrition. We propose a theoretical framework for developing a "capability" approach to child growth. The current child growth monitoring practices are based on 2 assumptions: (a) that anthropometric and motor development measures are the appropriate indicators; and (b) that child growth can be assessed using a single universal standard that is applicable around the world. These practices may be further advanced by applying a capability approach to child growth, whereby growth is redefined as the achievement of certain capabilities (of society, parents, and children). This framework is similar to the multidimensional approach to societal development presented in the seminal work of Amartya Sen. To identify the dimensions of healthy child growth, we draw upon theories from the social sciences and evolutionary biology. Conceptually, we consider growth as a plural space and propose assessing growth by means of a child growth matrix in which the context is embedded in the assessment. This approach will better address the diversities and the inequalities in child growth. Such a multidimensional measure will have implications for interventions and policy, including prevention and counselling, and could have an impact on child malnutrition and mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Maternal and Child Nutrition Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia.

PubMed

Chandy, Hoeuy; Heng, Yang Van; Samol, Ha; Husum, Hans

2008-03-01

We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.

A national database of incidence and treatment outcomes of status epilepticus in Thailand.

PubMed

Tiamkao, Somsak; Pranbul, Sineenard; Sawanyawisuth, Kittisak; Thepsuthammarat, Kaewjai

2014-06-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is a serious neurological condition. The national database of SE in Thailand and other developing countries is limited in terms of incidence and treatment outcomes. This study was conducted on the prevalence of status epilepticus (SE). The study group comprised of adult inpatients (over 18 years old) with SE throughout Thailand. SE patients were diagnosed and searched based on ICD 10 (G41) from the national database. The database used was from reimbursement documents submitted by the hospitals under the three health insurance systems, namely, the universal health coverage insurance, social security, and government health welfare system during the fiscal year 2010. We found 2190 SE patients receiving treatment at hospitals (5.10/100 000 population). The average age was 50.5 years and 1413 patients were males (64.5%). Mortality rate was 0.6 death/100 000 population or 11.96% of total patients. Significant factors associated with death or a nonimproved status at discharge were type of insurance, hospital level, chronic kidney disease, having pneumonia, having shock, on mechanical ventilator, and having cardiopulmonary resuscitation. In conclusion, the incidence of SE in Thailand was 5.10/100 000 population with mortality rate of 0.6/100 000 population.

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality

PubMed Central

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

2014-01-01

Background The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. Materials and methods We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993–2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Results Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths–with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths–with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Conclusion Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina. PMID:25018627

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Holman, Sheila; Ross, William G; Lyerly, H Kim

2014-01-01

The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

Indirect cost of maternal deaths in the WHO African Region in 2010.

PubMed

Kirigia, Joses Muthuri; Mwabu, Germano Mwige; Orem, Juliet Nabyonga; Muthuri, Rosenabi Deborah Karimi

2014-08-31

An estimated 147,741 maternal deaths occurred in 2010 in 45 of the 47 countries in the African Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). The objective of this study was to estimate the indirect cost of maternal deaths in the Region to provide data for use in advocacy for increased domestic and external investment in multisectoral policy interventions to curb maternal mortality. This study used the cost-of-illness method to estimate the indirect cost of maternal mortality, i.e. the loss in non-health gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to maternal deaths. Estimates on maternal mortality for 2010 from Trends in maternal mortality: 1990 to 2010 published by WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA and the World Bank were used in these calculations. Values for future non-health GDP lost were converted into their present values by applying a 3% discount rate. One-way sensitivity analysis at 5% and 10% discount rates assessed the impact on non-health GDP loss. Indirect cost analysis was undertaken for the countries, categorized under three income groups. Group 1 consisted of nine high and upper middle income countries, Group 2 of 12 lower middle income countries, and Group 3 of 26 low income countries. Estimates for Seychelles in Group 1 and South Sudan in Group 3 were not provided in the source used. The 147,741 maternal deaths that occurred in 45 countries in the African Region in 2010 resulted in a total non-health GDP loss of Int$ 4.5 billion (PPP). About 24.5% of the loss was in Group 1 countries, 44.9% in Group 2 countries and 30.6% in Group 3 countries. This translated into losses in non-health GDP of Int$ 139,219, Int$ 35,440 and Int$ 16,397 per maternal death, respectively, for the three groups. Using discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced the total non-health GDP loss by 19.1% and 47.7%, respectively. Maternal mortality is responsible for a noteworthy level of non-health GDP loss among the countries in the African Region. There is urgent need, therefore, to increase domestic and external investment to scale up coverage of existing cost-effective, multisectoral women's health interventions to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality.

Relative Mortality among Criminals in Norway and the Relation to Drug and Alcohol Related Offenses

PubMed Central

Skardhamar, Torbjørn; Skirbekk, Vegard

2013-01-01

Background Registered offenders are known to have a higher mortality rate, but given the high proportion of offenders with drug-addiction, particularly among offenders with a custodial sentence, higher mortality is expected. While the level of overall mortality compared to the non-criminal population is of interest in itself, we also estimate the risk of death by criminal records related to substance abuse and other types of criminal acts, and separate between those who receive a prison sentence or not. Methods Age-adjusted relative risks of death for 2000–2008 were studied in a population based dataset. Our dataset comprise the total Norwegian population of 2.9 million individuals aged 15–69 years old in 1999, of whom 10% had a criminal record in the 1992–1999 period. Results Individuals with a criminal record have twice the relative risk (RR) of death of the control group (non-offenders). Males with a record of use/possession of drugs and a prison record have an 11.9 RR (females, 15.6); males with a drug record but no prison record have a 6.9 RR (females 10.5). Males imprisoned for driving under the influence of substances have a 4.4 RR (females 5.6); males with a record of driving under the influence but no prison sentence have a 3.2 RR (females 6.5). Other male offenders with a prison record have a 2.8 RR (females 3.7); other male offenders with no prison record have a 1.7 RR (females 2.3). Conclusion Significantly higher mortality was found for people with a criminal record, also for those without any record of drug use. Mortality is much higher for those convicted of substance-related crimes: more so for drug- than for alcohol-related crimes and for women. PMID:24223171

Effect of Hospital Closures on Acute Care Outcomes in British Columbia, Canada: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

PubMed

Panagiotoglou, Dimitra; Law, Michael R; McGrail, Kimberlyn

2017-01-01

In 2002 British Columbia, Canada began redistributing its hospital services. We used administrative data and interrupted time series analyses to determine how recent hospital closures affected patient outcomes. All adult acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, and trauma events in British Columbia between fiscal years 1999 and 2013. Cases were patients whose closest hospital closed. Controls were matched by condition, year of event, and condition-specific hospital volume where treatment was received. Thirty-day mortality and hospital bypass rates. We matched 3267 AMI, 2852 stroke, and 6318 trauma cases to 1996, 1604, and 3640 controls, respectively. The 30-day mortality rate at baseline was 7.0% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.0%-10.1%] for AMI, 5.3% (95% CI, 2.4%-8.1%) for stroke, and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.3%-2.1%) for trauma controls. The 30-day mortality rate for cases was 14.3% (95% CI, 7.1%-21.7%) for AMI, 12.0% (95% CI, 5.1%-18.9%) for stroke, and 3.1% for trauma (95% CI, 0.9%-5.2%) cases. There was no significant change in 30-day mortality for cases, and no significant difference in change in mortality rates between cases and controls following the intervention. The difference in hospital bypass rates between cases and controls was 50.1% (95% CI, 42.3%-57.9%) for AMI, 36.2% (95% CI, 27.4%-44.9%) for stroke, and 32.2% (95% CI, 27.7%-36.8%) for trauma cases preintervention. Following the intervention, the difference in bypass rates dropped by 15.5% (95% CI, 3.5%-27.5%) for AMI, 25.3% (95% CI, 11.7%-38.8%) for stroke, and 22.7% (95% CI, 15.7%-29.6%) for trauma cases. Hospital closures did not affect patient mortality.

Gray wolf mortality patterns in Wisconsin from 1979 to 2012

PubMed Central

Langenberg, Julia A.; López-Bao, José V.; Rabenhorst, Mark F.

2017-01-01

Abstract Starting in the 1970s, many populations of large-bodied mammalian carnivores began to recover from centuries of human-caused eradication and habitat destruction. The recovery of several such populations has since slowed or reversed due to mortality caused by humans. Illegal killing (poaching) is a primary cause of death in many carnivore populations. Law enforcement agencies face difficulties in preventing poaching and scientists face challenges in measuring it. Both challenges are exacerbated when evidence is concealed or ignored. We present data on deaths of 937 Wisconsin gray wolves (Canis lupus) from October 1979 to April 2012 during a period in which wolves were recolonizing historic range mainly under federal government protection. We found and partially remedied sampling and measurement biases in the source data by reexamining necropsy reports and reconstructing the numbers and causes of some wolf deaths that were never reported. From 431 deaths and disappearances of radiocollared wolves aged > 7.5 months, we estimated human causes accounted for two-thirds of reported and reconstructed deaths, including poaching in 39–45%, vehicle collisions in 13%, legal killing by state agents in 6%, and nonhuman causes in 36–42%. Our estimate of poaching remained an underestimate because of persistent sources of uncertainty and systematic underreporting. Unreported deaths accounted for over two-thirds of all mortality annually among wolves > 7.5 months old. One-half of all poached wolves went unreported, or > 80% of poached wolves not being monitored by radiotelemetry went unreported. The annual mortality rate averaged 18% ± 10% for monitored wolves but 47% ± 19% for unmonitored wolves. That difference appeared to be due largely to radiocollaring being concentrated in the core areas of wolf range, as well as higher rates of human-caused mortality in the periphery of wolf range. We detected an average 4% decline in wolf population growth in the last 5 years of the study. Because our estimates of poaching risk and overall mortality rate exceeded official estimates after 2012, we present all data for transparency and replication. More recent additions of public hunting quotas after 2012 appear unsustainable without effective curtailment of poaching. Effective antipoaching enforcement will require more accurate estimates of poaching rate, location, and timing than currently available. Independent scientific review of methods and data will improve antipoaching policies for large carnivore conservation, especially for controversial species facing high levels of human-induced mortality. PMID:29674782

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada, and the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Mack, Karin; Clapperton, Angela; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Natalie; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael; McClure, Roderick

2017-06-16

The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000-2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities.

Prognostic value of heart rate variability footprint and standard deviation of average 5-minute intrinsic R-R intervals for mortality in cardiac resynchronization therapy patients.

PubMed

Gilliam, F Roosevelt; Singh, Jagmeet P; Mullin, Christopher M; McGuire, Maureen; Chase, Kellie J

2007-10-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy devices provide effective therapy for heart failure. Heart rate variability (HRV) parameters in the device such as HRV footprint and SD of average 5-minute intrinsic R-R intervals (SDANN) are related to autonomic function and may be used to identify patients with a higher risk of mortality. We examined the relationship between HRV and mortality in a prospective cohort study. The 842 patients (mean age, 67.7 +/- 11.2; 23.5 % female; New York Heart Association class III, 88.6%; class IV, 11.4%) included in the analysis were implanted with a cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillation device and had baseline HRV measurements available. During a median of 11.6 months of follow-up, 7.8% (66/842) of patients died. Heart rate variability footprint and SDANN were significant predictors of mortality (all P < .05); patients with lower HRV values were at greater risk for death, compared with patients with higher HRV values. Heart rate variability changes over time tended to predict the risk of mortality in follow-up (P = nonsignificant); patients with low baseline HRV and small changes in HRV during the follow-up period were at the highest risk for death (7% mortality for SDANN and 8.9% for HRV footprint), and patients with high baseline HRV and large changes in HRV were at the lowest risk (1.5% mortality for SDANN and 2.4% for HRV footprint). Results were consistent when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and diastolic blood pressure. Continuously measured device HRV parameters provide prognostic information about patient mortality that may be helpful for risk stratification.

Improved 1-year mortality in elderly patients with a hip fracture following integrated orthogeriatric treatment.

PubMed

Folbert, E C; Hegeman, J H; Vermeer, M; Regtuijt, E M; van der Velde, D; Ten Duis, H J; Slaets, J P

2017-01-01

To improve the quality of care and reduce the healthcare costs of elderly patients with a hip fracture, surgeons and geriatricians collaborated intensively due to the special needs of these patients. After treatment at the Centre for Geriatric Traumatology (CvGT), we found a significant decrease in the 1-year mortality rate in frail elderly patients compared to the historical control patients who were treated with standard care. The study aimed to evaluate the effect of an orthogeriatric treatment model on elderly patients with a hip fracture on the 1-year mortality rate and identify associated risk factors. This study included patients, aged 70 years and older, who were admitted with a hip fracture and treated in accordance with the integrated orthogeriatric treatment model of the CvGT at the Hospital Group Twente (ZGT) between April 2008 and October 2013. Data registration was carried out by several disciplines using the clinical pathways of the CvGT database. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for 1-year mortality. The outcome measures for the 850 patients were compared with those of 535 historical control patients who were managed under standard care between October 2002 and March 2008. The analysis demonstrated that the 1-year mortality rate was 23.2 % (n = 197) in the CvGT group compared to 35.1 % (n = 188) in the historical control group (p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality were male gender (odds ratio (OR) 1.68), increasing age (OR 1.06), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (ASA 3 OR 2.43, ASA 4-5 OR 7.05), higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (CCI 1-2 OR 1.46, CCI 3-4 OR 1.59, CCI 5 OR 2.71), malnutrition (OR 2.01), physical limitations in activities of daily living (OR 2.35), and decreasing Barthel Index (BI) (OR 0.96). After integrated orthogeriatric treatment, a significant decrease was seen in the 1-year mortality rate in the frail elderly patients with a hip fracture compared to the historical control patients who were treated with standard care. The most important risk factors for 1-year mortality were male gender, increasing age, malnutrition, physical limitations, increasing BI, and medical conditions. Awareness of risk factors that affect the 1-year mortality can be useful in optimizing care and outcomes. Orthogeriatric treatment should be standard for elderly patients with hip fractures due to the multidimensional needs of these patients.

Associations between long-term exposure to chemical constituents of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality in Medicare enrollees in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Dominici, Francesca; Wang, Yun; Coull, Brent A; Bell, Michelle L

2015-05-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with higher mortality. Evidence regarding contributions of PM2.5 constituents is inconclusive. We assembled a data set of 12.5 million Medicare enrollees (≥ 65 years of age) to determine which PM2.5 constituents are a) associated with mortality controlling for previous-year PM2.5 total mass (main effect); and b) elevated in locations exhibiting stronger associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (effect modification). For 518 PM2.5 monitoring locations (eastern United States, 2000-2006), we calculated monthly mortality rates, monthly long-term (previous 1-year average) PM2.5, and 7-year averages (2000-2006) of major PM2.5 constituents [elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon matter (OCM), sulfate (SO42-), silicon (Si), nitrate (NO3-), and sodium (Na)] and community-level variables. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate location-specific mortality rates associated with previous-year PM2.5 (model level 1) and identify constituents that contributed to the spatial variability of mortality, and constituents that modified associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (model level 2), controlling for community-level confounders. One-standard deviation (SD) increases in 7-year average EC, Si, and NO3- concentrations were associated with 1.3% [95% posterior interval (PI): 0.3, 2.2], 1.4% (95% PI: 0.6, 2.4), and 1.2% (95% PI: 0.4, 2.1) increases in monthly mortality, controlling for previous-year PM2.5. Associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality were stronger in combination with 1-SD increases in SO42- and Na. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 and several constituents were associated with mortality in the elderly population of the eastern United States. Moreover, some constituents increased the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality. These results provide new evidence that chemical composition can partly explain the differential toxicity of PM2.5.

Slow lifelong growth predisposes Populus tremuloides to tree mortality

Treesearch

Kathryn B. Ireland; Margaret M. Moore; Peter Z. Fule; Thomas J. Zegler; Robert E. Keane

2014-01-01

Widespread dieback of aspen forests, sometimes called sudden aspen decline, has been observed throughout much of western North America, with the highest mortality rates in the southwestern United States. Recent aspen mortality has been linked to drought stress and elevated temperatures characteristic of conditions expected under climate change, but the role of...

An ecological quantification of the relationships between water, sanitation and infant, child, and maternal mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Water and sanitation access are known to be related to newborn, child, and maternal health. Our study attempts to quantify these relationships globally using country-level data: How much does improving access to water and sanitation influence infant, child, and maternal mortality? Methods Data for 193 countries were abstracted from global databases (World Bank, WHO, and UNICEF). Linear regression was used for the outcomes of under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate (IMR). These results are presented as events per 1000 live births. Ordinal logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios for the outcome of maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Results Under-five mortality rate decreased by 1.17 (95%CI 1.08-1.26) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, for every quartile increase in population water access after adjustments for confounders. There was a similar relationship between quartile increase of sanitation access and under-five mortality rate, with a decrease of 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. Improved water access was also related to IMR, with the IMR decreasing by 1.14 (95%CI 1.05-1.23) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, with increasing quartile of access to improved water source. The significance of this relationship was retained with quartile improvement in sanitation access, where the decrease in IMR was 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. The estimated odds ratio that increased quartile of water access was significantly associated with increased quartile of MMR was 0.58 (95%CI 0.39-0.86), p = 0.008. The corresponding odds ratio for sanitation was 0.52 (95%CI 0.32-0.85), p = 0.009, both suggesting that better water and sanitation were associated with decreased MMR. Conclusions Our analyses suggest that access to water and sanitation independently contribute to child and maternal mortality outcomes. If the world is to seriously address the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child and maternal mortality, then improved water and sanitation accesses are key strategies. PMID:22280473

Maryland's high cancer mortality rate: a review of contributing demographic factors.

PubMed

Freedman, D M

1999-01-01

For many years, Maryland has ranked among the top states in cancer mortality. This study analyzed mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics (CDC-Wonder) to help explain Maryland's cancer rate and rank. Age-adjusted rates are based on deaths per 100,000 population from 1991 through 1995. Rates and ranks overall, and stratified by age, are calculated for total cancer mortality, as well as for four major sites: lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal. Because states differ in their racial/gender mix, race/gender rates among states are also compared. Although Maryland ranks seventh in overall cancer mortality, its rates and rank by race and gender subpopulation are less high. For those under 75, white men ranked 26th, black men ranked 20th, and black and white women ranked 12th and 10th, respectively. Maryland's overall rank, as with any state, is a function of the rates of its racial and gender subpopulations and the relative size of these groups in the state. Many of the disparities between Maryland's overall high cancer rank and its lower rank by subpopulation also characterize the major cancer sites. Although a stratified presentation of cancer rates and ranks may be more favorable to Maryland, it should not be used to downplay the attention cancer mortality in Maryland deserves.

Fine-particulate Air Pollution from Diesel Emission Control and Mortality Rates in Tokyo: A Quasi-experimental Study.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Kashima, Saori; Doi, Hiroyuki

2016-11-01

Evidence linking air pollution with adverse health outcomes is accumulating. However, few studies have adopted a quasi-experimental design to evaluate whether decline in air pollution from regulatory action improves public health. We evaluated the effect of a diesel emission control ordinance introduced in 2003 on mortality rates in 23 wards of the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan, from October 2000 to September 2012, taking into account change in mortality rates in a reference population (Osaka) with a introduction of such a regulation in 2009. We obtained daily counts of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) during the study period. We employed interrupted time-series analysis to analyze the data. Decline in NO2 during the study period was similar in the two areas, while decline in PM2.5 and the improvement in age-standardized mortality rates were greater in Tokyo's 23 wards compared with Osaka. Even after adjusting for age-standardized mortality rates in Osaka, percent changes in mortality between the first 3-year interval (October 2000 to September 2003) and the last 3-year interval (October 2009 to September 2012) were -6.0% for all causes, -11% for cardiovascular disease, -10% for ischemic heart disease, -6.2% for cerebrovascular disease, -22% for pulmonary disease, and -4.9% for lung cancer. We did not observe a decline in mortality from other causes. This quasi-experimental study in Tokyo suggests that emission control was associated with improvements in both air quality and health outcomes.

Electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and its relationship to neonatal and infant mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Yang; Chauhan, Suneet P; Ananth, Cande V; Vintzileos, Anthony M; Abuhamad, Alfred Z

2011-06-01

To examine the association between electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and neonatal and infant mortality, as well as neonatal morbidity. We used the United States 2004 linked birth and infant death data. Multivariable log-binomial regression models were fitted to estimate risk ratio for association between electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and mortality, while adjusting for potential confounders. In 2004, 89% of singleton pregnancies had electronic fetal heart rate monitoring. Electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with significantly lower infant mortality (adjusted relative risk, 0.75); this was mainly driven by the lower risk of early neonatal mortality (adjusted relative risk, 0.50). In low-risk pregnancies, electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with decreased risk for Apgar scores <4 at 5 minutes (relative risk, 0.54); in high-risk pregnancies, with decreased risk of neonatal seizures (relative risk, 0.65). In the United States, the use of electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with a substantial decrease in early neonatal mortality and morbidity that lowered infant mortality. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Coverage gap in maternal and child health services in India: assessing trends and regional deprivation during 1992-2006.

PubMed

Kumar, Chandan; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar

2013-12-01

Increasing the coverage of key maternal, newborn and child health interventions is essential, if India has to attain Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. This study assesses the coverage gap in maternal and child health services across states in India during 1992-2006 emphasizing the rural-urban disparities. Additionally, association between the coverage gap and under-5 mortality rate across states are illustrated. The three waves of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1992-1993 (NFHS-1), 1998-1999 (NFHS-2) and 2005-2006 (NFHS-3) were used to construct a composite index of coverage gap in four areas of health-care interventions: family planning, maternal and newborn care, immunization and treatment of sick children. The central, eastern and northeastern regions of India reported a higher coverage gap in maternal and child health care services during 1992-2006, while the rural-urban difference in the coverage gap has increased in Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan and Kerala over the period. The analysis also shows a significant positive relationship between the coverage gap index and under-five mortality rate across states. Region or area-specific focus in order to increase the coverage of maternal and child health care services in India should be the priority of the policy-makers and programme executors.

Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Wang, Haidong; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Lofgren, Katherine T; Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; Marcus, Jacob R; Levin-Rector, Alison; Levitz, Carly E; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L

2012-12-15

Estimation of the number and rate of deaths by age and sex is a key first stage for calculation of the burden of disease in order to constrain estimates of cause-specific mortality and to measure premature mortality in populations. We aimed to estimate life tables and annual numbers of deaths for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010. We estimated trends in under-5 mortality rate (children aged 0-4 years) and probability of adult death (15-59 years) for each country with all available data. Death registration data were available for more than 100 countries and we corrected for undercount with improved death distribution methods. We applied refined methods to survey data on sibling survival that correct for survivor, zero-sibling, and recall bias. We separately estimated mortality from natural disasters and wars. We generated final estimates of under-5 mortality and adult mortality from the data with Gaussian process regression. We used these results as input parameters in a relational model life table system. We developed a model to extrapolate mortality to 110 years of age. All death rates and numbers have been estimated with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). From 1970 to 2010, global male life expectancy at birth increased from 56·4 years (95% UI 55·5-57·2) to 67·5 years (66·9-68·1) and global female life expectancy at birth increased from 61·2 years (60·2-62·0) to 73·3 years (72·8-73·8). Life expectancy at birth rose by 3-4 years every decade from 1970, apart from during the 1990s (increase in male life expectancy of 1·4 years and in female life expectancy of 1·6 years). Substantial reductions in mortality occurred in eastern and southern sub-Saharan Africa since 2004, coinciding with increased coverage of antiretroviral therapy and preventive measures against malaria. Sex-specific changes in life expectancy from 1970 to 2010 ranged from gains of 23-29 years in the Maldives and Bhutan to declines of 1-7 years in Belarus, Lesotho, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. Globally, 52·8 million (95% UI 51·6-54·1 million) deaths occurred in 2010, which is about 13·5% more than occurred in 1990 (46·5 million [45·7-47·4 million]), and 21·9% more than occurred in 1970 (43·3 million [42·2-44·6 million]). Proportionally more deaths in 2010 occurred at age 70 years and older (42·8% in 2010 vs 33·1% in 1990), and 22·9% occurred at 80 years or older. Deaths in children younger than 5 years declined by almost 60% since 1970 (16·4 million [16·1-16·7 million] in 1970 vs 6·8 million [6·6-7·1 million] in 2010), especially at ages 1-59 months (10·8 million [10·4-11·1 million] in 1970 vs 4·0 million [3·8-4·2 million] in 2010). In all regions, including those most affected by HIV/AIDS, we noted increases in mean ages at death. Despite global and regional health crises, global life expectancy has increased continuously and substantially in the past 40 years. Yet substantial heterogeneity exists across age groups, among countries, and over different decades. 179 of 187 countries have had increases in life expectancy after the slowdown in progress in the 1990s. Efforts should be directed to reduce mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Potential underestimation of achievement of the Millennium Development Goal 4 might result from limitations of demographic data on child mortality for the most recent time period. Improvement of civil registration system worldwide is crucial for better tracking of global mortality. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complicated Outcomes After Emergent Lower Extremity Surgery in Patients With Solid Organ Transplants.

PubMed

Reid, Alexander T; Perdue, Aaron; Goulet, James A; Robbins, Christopher B; Pour, Aidin Eslam

2016-11-01

The complications of emergent or urgent surgery in solid organ transplant recipients are unclear. The goal of this nonrandomized retrospective case study, conducted at a large public university teaching hospital, was to determine the following: (1) 90-day postsurgical complications in solid organ transplant recipients who undergo fracture surgery of the lower extremities; (2) 90-day and 1-year mortality rates for this cohort; (3) correlation of particular postsurgical complications with the 90-day or 1-year mortality rate; and (4) correlation of body mass index with the 90-day or 1-year mortality rate. Subjects included 36 solid organ transplant recipients who underwent surgical treatment for 37 emergent or urgent lower extremity fractures within 72 hours of presentation to the emergency department. Patients were followed for all medical and surgical complications for 90 days and for all-cause mortality for 1 year. Within 90 days of surgery, patients had complications that included acute renal failure (15, 40.5%), deep venous thrombosis (3, 8.1%), pulmonary embolus (2, 5.4%), pneumonia (7, 18.9%), superficial surgical site infection (3, 8.1%), and nonorthopedic sepsis (4, 10.8%). In addition, 3 (8.1%) and 5 (13.9%) patients died within 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Hospital readmission correlated with a higher 1-year mortality rate (odds ratio, 14.000; P=.016). Higher body mass index correlated with higher 90-day (odds ratio, 1.425; P=.035) and 1-year (odds ratio, 1.334; P=.033) mortality rates. Solid organ transplant recipients with lower extremity fracture have high 90-day and 1-year mortality rates and may have multiple complications within 90 days of treatment. [Orthopedics. 2016; 39(6):e1063-e1069.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Epidemiology of a decade of Pediatric fatal burns in Colombia, South America.

PubMed

Aldana, Maria Cristina del Rosario; Navarrete, Norberto

2015-11-01

Burns represent a serious problem around the world especially in low- and middle-income countries. The aim was to determine the epidemiological characteristics, causes and mortality rate of burn deaths in the Colombian pediatric population as well as to guide future education and prevention programs. We conducted an observational, analytical, retrospective population-based study. It was based upon official death certificate data using diagnosis codes for burns (scalds, thermal, electrical, intentional self-harm and not specified), that occurred between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2009. Official death certificates of the pediatric population of up to 15 years of age were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics. A total of 1197 fatal pediatric injuries related to burns were identified. The crude and adjusted mortality rate for burns in the pediatric population in Colombia during the length of the study was 0.899 and 0.912 per 100,000, respectively. The mortality rate tended to decrease (-5.17% annual) during the duration of the study. Children under 5 years of age were the most affected group (59.5%). Almost half of them died before arriving at a health facility (47.1%). Fire is the principal cause of death attributable to burns in Colombia, followed by electric burns and hot liquids. This is a first step study in researching the epidemiological features of pediatric deaths after burns. The Public Health's strategies should be oriented toward community awareness about these kind of injuries, and to teach children and families about risk factors and first aid. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

A simple 5-point scoring system, NaURSE (Na+, urea, respiratory rate and shock index in the elderly), predicts in-hospital mortality in oldest old.

PubMed

Wilson, Alexander H; Kidd, Andrew C; Skinner, Jane; Musonda, Patrick; Pai, Yogish; Lunt, Claire J; Butchart, Catherine; Soiza, Roy L; Potter, John F; Myint, Phyo Kyaw

2014-05-01

the mortality is high in acutely ill oldest old patients. Understanding the prognostic factors which influence mortality will help clinicians make appropriate management decisions. we analysed prospective mortality audit data (November 2008 to January 2009) to identify variables associated with in-patient mortality in oldest old. We selected those with P < 0.10 from univariate analysis and determined at which cut-point they served as the strongest predictor of mortality. Using these cut-off points, we constructed multivariate logistic regression models. A 5-point score was derived from cut-off points which were significantly associated with mortality tested in a smaller independent re-audit sample conducted in October 2011. a total of 405 patients (mean 93.5 ± 2.7 years) were included in the study. The mean length of stay was 18.5 ± 42.4 days and 13.8% died as in-patients. Variables (cut-off values) found to be significantly associated with in-patient mortality were admission sodium (>145 mmol/l), urea (≥14 mmol/l), respiratory rate (>20/min) and shock index (>1.0): creating a 5-point score (NaURSE: NaURS in the Elderly). The crude mortality rates were 9.5, 19.9, 34.4, 66.7, and 100% for scores 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Using the cut-off point of ≥2, the NaURSE score has a specificity of 87% (83.1-90.3) and sensitivity of 39% (28.5-50.0), with an AUC value of 0.69 (0.63-0.76). An external independent validation study (n = 121) showed similar results. the NaURSE score may be particularly useful in identifying oldest old who are likely to die in that admission to guide appropriate care.

Predictors of intensive care unit refusal in French intensive care units: a multiple-center study.

PubMed

Garrouste-Orgeas, Maité; Montuclard, Luc; Timsit, Jean-François; Reignier, Jean; Desmettre, Thibault; Karoubi, Philippe; Moreau, Delphine; Montesino, Laurent; Duguet, Alexandre; Boussat, Sandrine; Ede, Christophe; Monseau, Yannick; Paule, Thierry; Misset, Benoit; Carlet, Jean

2005-04-01

To identify factors associated with granting or refusing intensive care unit (ICU) admission, to analyze ICU characteristics and triage decisions, and to describe mortality in admitted and refused patients. Observational, prospective, multiple-center study. Four university hospitals and seven primary-care hospitals in France. None. Age, underlying diseases (McCabe score and Knaus class), dependency, hospital mortality, and ICU characteristics were recorded. The crude ICU refusal rate was 23.8% (137/574), with variations from 7.1% to 63.1%. The reasons for refusal were too well to benefit (76/137, 55.4%), too sick to benefit (51/137, 37.2%), unit too busy (9/137, 6.5%), and refusal by the family (1/137). In logistic regression analyses, two patient-related factors were associated with ICU refusal: dependency (odds ratio [OR], 14.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.27-38.25; p < .0001) and metastatic cancer (OR, 5.82; 95% CI, 2.22-15.28). Other risk factors were organizational, namely, full unit (OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.88-5.31), center (OR, 3.81; 95% CI, 2.27-6.39), phone admission (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14-0.40), and daytime admission (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.84). The Standardized Mortality Ratio was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.19-1.69) for immediately admitted patients, 1.75 (95% CI, 1.60-1.84) for refused patients, and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.28-1.75) for later-admitted patients. ICU refusal rates varied greatly across ICUs and were dependent on both patient and organizational factors. Efforts to define ethically optimal ICU admission policies might lead to greater homogeneity in refusal rates, although case-mix variations would be expected to leave an irreducible amount of variation across ICUs.

Ninety-day mortality after resection for lung cancer is nearly double 30-day mortality.

PubMed

Pezzi, Christopher M; Mallin, Katherine; Mendez, Andres Samayoa; Greer Gay, Emmelle; Putnam, Joe B

2014-11-01

To evaluate 30-day and 90-day mortality after major pulmonary resection for lung cancer including the relationship to hospital volume. Major lung resections from 2007 to 2011 were identified in the National Cancer Data Base. Mortality was compared according to annual volume and demographic and clinical covariates using univariate and multivariable analyses, and included information on comorbidity. Statistical significance (P<.05) and 95% confidence intervals were assessed. There were 124,418 major pulmonary resections identified in 1233 facilities. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.8%. The 90-day mortality rate was 5.4%. Hospital volume was significantly associated with 30-day mortality, with a mortality rate of 3.7% for volumes less than 10, and 1.7% for volumes of 90 or more. Other variables significantly associated with 30-day mortality include older age, male sex, higher stage, pneumonectomy, a previous primary cancer, and multiple comorbidities. Similar results were found for 90-day mortality rates. In the multivariate analysis, hospital volume remained significant with adjusted odds ratios of 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.6) for 30-day mortality and 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.6) for conditional 90-day mortality for the hospitals with the lowest volume (<10) compared with those with the highest volume (>90). Hospitals with a volume less than 30 had an adjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality of 1.3 (95% CI, 1.2-1.5) compared with those with a volume greater than 30. Mortality at 30 and 90 days and hospital volume should be monitored by institutions performing major pulmonary resection and benchmarked against hospitals performing at least 30 resections per year. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wood fuel consumption and mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a dynamic panel study.

PubMed

Sulaiman, Chindo; Abdul-Rahim, A S; Chin, Lee; Mohd-Shahwahid, H O

2017-06-01

This study examined the impact of wood fuel consumption on health outcomes, specifically under-five and adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, where wood usage for cooking and heating is on the increase. Generalized method of moment (GMM) estimators were used to estimate the impact of wood fuel consumption on under-five and adult mortality (and also male and female mortality) in the region. The findings revealed that wood fuel consumption had significant positive impact on under-five and adult mortality. It suggests that over the studied period, an increase in wood fuel consumption has increased the mortality of under-five and adult. Importantly, it indicated that the magnitude of the effect of wood fuel consumption was more on the under-five than the adults. Similarly, assessing the effect on a gender basis, it was revealed that the effect was more on female than male adults. This finding suggests that the resultant mortality from wood smoke related infections is more on under-five children than adults, and also are more on female adults than male adults. We, therefore, recommended that an alternative affordable, clean energy source for cooking and heating should be provided to reduce the wood fuel consumption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

PubMed

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

Cancer mortality in the West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory.

PubMed

Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Gianicolo, Emilio Antonio Luca; Bruni, Antonella; Mitwali, Suzan; Portaluri, Maurizio; Bitar, Jawad; Hamad, Mutaem; Giacaman, Rita; Vigotti, Maria Angela

2016-01-26

The burden of cancer is difficult to study in the context of the occupied Palestinian territory because of the limited data available. This study aims to evaluate the quality of mortality data and to investigate cancer mortality patterns in the occupied Palestinian territory's West Bank governorates from 1999 to 2009. Death certificates collected by the Palestinian Ministry of Health for Palestinians living in the West Bank were used. Direct and indirect age-standardised mortality rates were computed and used to compare different governorates according to total and specific cancer mortality. Furthermore, standardised proportional mortality ratios were calculated to compare mortality by urban, rural and camp locales. The most common cause of death out of all cancer types was lung cancer among males (22.8 %) and breast cancer among females (21.5 %) followed by prostate cancer for males (9.5 %) and by colon cancer for females (11.4 %). Regional variations in cancer-specific causes of death were observed. The central- West Bank governorates had the lowest mortality for most cancer types among men and women. Mortality for lung cancer was highest in the north among men (SMR 109.6; 95%CI 99.5-120.4). For prostate cancer, mortality was highest in the north (SMR 103.6; 95%CI 88.5-120.5) and in the south (SMR 118.6; 95%CI 98.9-141.0). Breast cancer mortality was highest in the south (SMR 119.3; 95%CI 103.9-136.2). Similar mortality rate patterns were found in urban, rural and camp locales. The quality of the Palestinian mortality registry has improved over time. Results in the West Bank governorates present different mortality patterns. The differences might be explained by personal, contextual and environmental factors that need future in-depth investigations.

The quest for equity in Latin America: a comparative analysis of the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Brazil and Colombia have pursued extensive reforms of their health care systems in the last couple of decades. The purported goals of such reforms were to improve access, increase efficiency and reduce health inequities. Notwithstanding their common goals, each country sought a very different pathway to achieve them. While Brazil attempted to reestablish a greater level of State control through a public national health system, Colombia embraced market competition under an employer-based social insurance scheme. This work thus aims to shed some light onto why they pursued divergent strategies and what that has meant in terms of health outcomes. Methods A critical review of the literature concerning equity frameworks, as well as the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia was conducted. Then, the shortfall inequality values of crude mortality rate, infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and life expectancy for the period 1960-2005 were calculated for both countries. Subsequently, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed and controlled for possibly confounding factors. Results When controlling for the underlying historical time trend, both countries appear to have experienced a deceleration of the pace of improvements in the years following the reforms, for all the variables analyzed. In the case of Colombia, some of the previous gains in under-five mortality rate and crude mortality rate were, in fact, reversed. Conclusions Neither reform seems to have had a decisive positive impact on the health outcomes analyzed for the defined time period of this research. This, in turn, may be a consequence of both internal characteristics of the respective reforms and external factors beyond the direct control of health reformers. Among the internal characteristics: underfunding, unbridled decentralization and inequitable access to care seem to have been the main constraints. Conversely, international economic adversities, high levels of rural and urban violence, along with entrenched income inequalities seem to have accounted for the highest burden among external factors. PMID:22296659

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into population models; these results can also be combined with those of other studies to investigate large-scale differences in walleye mortality. Our analysis illustrates the utility of mortality caps for monitoring walleye populations and for establishing realistic management goals.

[Aspects of malaria in the hospitalized child in Gabon].

PubMed

Koko, J; Dufillot, D; Zima-Ebeyard, A M; Duong, T H; Gahouma, D; Kombila, M

1997-01-01

To gain insight into the impact of malaria on children in terms of frequency and severity, a study was carried out in a department of the Owendo Children's Hospital in Libreville, Gabon, a fully endemic area. Diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum malaria was confirmed by blood smears in 295 of the 1592 children admitted in 1992, i.e. 18.5% of admissions. Malaria was therefore the primary cause of hospitalization. Of 122 deaths observed during the study period 9 were due to malaria-associated complications for an overall mortality rate of 7.4% and malaria-related mortality rate of 3.1%. These rates are low in comparison with those reported by other departments in Central Africa. Convulsions were observed in 30.5% of children in the department and malaria was the underlying cause of convulsions in 62.9% of these cases. Severe anemia (< 5 g/dl) was noted in 23.7% of children overall and was associated with malaria in 54.7%. Severe malaria as defined by the criteria of the World Health Organization was observed in 33.2% of children. These findings illustrate the extent of the impact of endemic malaria on children in Gabon and emphasize the need to promote malaria control programs and improve treatment.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Predictors of mortality in patients with lacunar stroke in the secondary prevention of small subcortical strokes trial.

PubMed

Sharma, Mukul; Pearce, Lesly A; Benavente, Oscar R; Anderson, David C; Connolly, Stuart J; Palacio, Santiago; Coffey, Christopher S; Hart, Robert G

2014-10-01

The Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Stroke trial (SPS3) recruited participants meeting clinical and radiological criteria for symptomatic lacunes. Individuals randomized to dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and aspirin had an unanticipated increase in all-cause mortality compared with those assigned to aspirin. We investigated the factors associated with mortality in this well-characterized population. We identified independent predictors of mortality among baseline demographic and clinical factors by Cox regression analysis in participants of the SPS3 trial. Separately, we examined the effect on mortality of nonfatal bleeding during the trial. During a mean follow-up of 3.6 years, the mortality rate was 1.78% per year for the 3020 participants (mean age, 63 years). Significant independent predictors of mortality at study entry were age, diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension, systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.3 per 20 mm Hg increase), serum hemoglobin<13 g/dL (HR, 1.6), renal function (HR, 1.3 per estimated glomerular filtration rate decrease of 20 mL/min), and body mass index (HR, 1.8 per 10 kg/m2 decrease). Participants with ischemic heart disease (P=0.01 for interaction) and normotensive/prehypertensive participants (P=0.03 for interaction) were at increased risk if assigned to dual antiplatelet therapy. Nonfatal major hemorrhage increased mortality in both treatment arms (HR, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-6.6; P<0.001). Unexpected interactions between assigned antiplatelet therapy and each of ischemic heart disease and normal/prehypertensive status accounted for increased mortality among patients with recent lacunar stroke given dual antiplatelet therapy. Despite extensive exploratory analyses, the mechanisms underlying these interactions are uncertain. http://www.SPS3ClinicalTrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00059306. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Associates of Neonatal, Infant and Child Mortality in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan: A Multilevel Analysis Using the 2012-2013 Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Helova, Anna; Hearld, Kristine R; Budhwani, Henna

2017-02-01

Objectives Pakistan is one of five nations contributing to half of the world's child mortality and holds under-five mortality rates which are nearly double global targets. Reasons for this shortfall include civil conflicts, political uncertainty, low education, poverty, rural-urban disparities, and limited health care access. The aim of this study was to explore associations between individual characteristics, community factors, and child mortality in Pakistan. Methods Data were derived from the 2012 to 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, and included 7399 live births and 380 child deaths. Multivariate, multilevel logistic regression was used to model risk of neonatal, infant and under-five child deaths. Results Seventy-one percent of child deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Significant factors (p < 0.05) associated with lower odds of child mortality included adhering to recommended minimum of 24 months interpregnancy interval and higher household wealth. These were significant for neonatal (OR 0.448; 0.871), infancy (OR 0.465; 0.881), and under-five deaths (OR 0.465; 0.879). Employed mothers had higher odds of neonatal (OR 1.479), infant (OR 1.506), and child mortality (OR 1.459). Likewise, women living in consanguineous marriages had higher odds of infant (OR 1.454) and under-five deaths (OR 1.381). Children in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh, regions disproportionately poor, rural with low levels of education, were at highest risk of dying. Conclusions for Practice Findings may assist in designing targeted interventions, developing appropriate public health messaging, and implementing policies designed to lower child mortality. Focusing on lowering rates of maternal poverty, increasing opportunities for education, and improving access to health care could assist in reducing child mortality in Pakistan.

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community.

PubMed

Burnett, Jason; Jackson, Shelly L; Sinha, Arup K; Aschenbrenner, Andrew R; Murphy, Kathleen Pace; Xia, Rui; Diamond, Pamela M

2016-01-01

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.