Attributable risk and potential impact of interventions to reduce household air pollution associated with under-five mortality in South Asia.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2018-01-01

Solid fuel use is the major source of household air pollution (HAP) and accounts for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality in low and middle income countries. To evaluate and compare childhood mortality attributable to HAP in four South Asian countries. A series of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan were used for analysis. Estimates of relative risk and exposure prevalence relating to use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each country. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were also calculated assessing theoretical scenarios based on published interventions aiming to reduce exposure prevalence. There are an increased risk of under-five mortality in those exposed to cooking fuel compared to those not exposed in the four South Asian countries (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07-1.57, P  = 0.007). Combined PAF estimates for South Asia found that 66% (95% CI: 43.1-81.5%) of the 13,290 estimated cases of under-five mortality was attributable to HAP. Joint PIF estimates (assuming achievable reductions in HAP reported in intervention studies conducted in South Asia) indicates 47% of neonatal and 43% of under-five mortality cases associated with HAP could be avoidable in the four South Asian countries studied. Elimination of exposure to use of cooking fuel in the household targeting valuable intervention strategies (such as cooking in separate kitchen, improved cook stoves) could reduce substantially under-five mortality in South Asian countries.

Mortality trends among refugees in Honduras, 1984-1987.

PubMed

Desenclos, J C; Michel, D; Tholly, F; Magdi, I; Pecoul, B; Desve, G

1990-06-01

Mortality data collected from 1984 to 1987 through a routine standardized health information system in the five main refugee populations of Honduras were reviewed. The direct standardized mean annual death rate for all refugees was 5.5 per 1000 population (Honduras population as reference; Honduras mortality rate: 10.1 per 1000). Mortality decreased or remained stable among Salvadoran refugees from 1984 to 1987, but increased among Nicaraguan refugees after 1985. The highest neonatal (56.1 per 1000 livebirths), infant (126.1 per 1000 livebirths) and under-five-year-olds (35.7 per 1000 child less than five years of age) mortality rates were observed in the two Nicaraguan camps. These two camps had the highest rate of newly arriving refugees. Deaths in infants and under-five-year-olds accounted for 42 and 54.1% of all deaths respectively. Of all deaths under five years of age, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases and measles accounted for 21.4%, 22.1% and 4.7%, respectively. Mortality rates, particularly among under-five-year-olds and infants increased when the rate of newly arriving refugees was higher. The importance of adapted health surveillance in refugee settlements is discussed.

Socio-economic and demographic determinants of under-five mortality in rural northern Ghana

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In spite of global decline in under-five mortality, the goal of achieving MDG 4 still remains largely unattained in low and middle income countries as the year 2015 closes-in. To accelerate the pace of mortality decline, proven interventions with high impact need to be implemented to help achieve the goal of drastically reducing childhood mortality. This paper explores the association between socio-economic and demographic factors and under-five mortality in an impoverished region in rural northern Ghana. Methods We used survey data on 3975 women aged 15–49 who have ever given birth. First, chi-square test was used to test the association of social, economic and demographic characteristics of mothers with the experience of under-five death. Subsequently, we ran a logistic regression model to estimate the relative association of factors that influence childhood mortality after excluding variables that were not significant at the bivariate level. Results Factors that significantly predict under-five mortality included mothers’ educational level, presence of co-wives, age and marital status. Mothers who have achieved primary or junior high school education were 45% less likely to experience under-five death than mothers with no formal education at all (OR = 0.55, p < 0.001). Monogamous women were 22% less likely to experience under-five deaths than mothers in polygamous marriages (OR = 0.78, p = 0.01). Similarly, mothers who were between the ages of 35 and 49 were about eleven times more likely to experience under-five deaths than those below the age of 20 years (OR = 11.44, p < 0.001). Also, women who were married had a 27% less likelihood (OR = 0.73, p = 0.01) of experiencing an under-five death than those who were single, divorced or widowed. Conclusion Taken independently, maternal education, age, marital status and presence of co-wives are associated with childhood mortality. The relationship of these indicators with women’s autonomy, health seeking behavior, and other factors that affect child survival merit further investigation so that interventions could be designed to foster reductions in child mortality by considering the needs and welfare of women including the need for female education, autonomy and socioeconomic well-being. PMID:25145383

Using Multi-Temporal Imaging Spectroscopy Data to Detect Drought and Bark Beetle Related Conifer Mortality across the Central Sierra Nevada, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tane, Z.; Ramirez, C.; Roberts, D. A.; Koltunov, A.; Sweeney, S.

2016-12-01

There is considerable scientific and public interest in the ongoing drought and bark beetle driven conifer mortality in the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada, the scale of which has not been seen previously in California's recorded history. Just before and during this mortality event (2013-2016), Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were acquired seasonally over part of the affected area as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission. In this study, we used 11 AVIRIS flight lines from 8 seasonal flights (from spring 2013 to summer 2015) to detect conifer mortality. In addition to the standard pre-processing completed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, AVIRIS images were co-registered and georeferenced between time steps and images were resampled to the spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratio expected from the proposed HyspIRI satellite. We used summer 2015 high-spatial resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 images from across the study area to collect training data from five scenes, and independent validation data from five additional scenes. A cover class map developed with a machine-learning algorithm, separated pixels into green conifer, red-attack conifer, and non-conifer dominant cover, yielding a high accuracy (above 85% accuracy on the independent validation data) in the tree mortality final map. Discussion will include the effects of temporal information and input dimensionality on classification accuracy, comparison with multi-spectral classification accuracy, the ecological and forest management implications of this work, incorporating 2016 AVIRS images to detect 2016 mortality, and future work in understanding the spatial patterns underlying the mortality.

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

PubMed Central

Dubey, Manisha

2015-01-01

Objectives Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. Methods We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. Findings India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). Conclusions For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early. PMID:26683617

Maternal education is associated with reduced female disadvantages in under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia.

PubMed

Monden, Christiaan W S; Smits, Jeroen

2013-02-01

The male:female (M:F) mortality ratio for under-five mortality varies considerably across and within societies. Maternal education has been linked to better outcomes for girls, but the evidence is mixed. We examined how the M:F ratio for under-five mortality varies by maternal education in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. We used recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 31 sub-Saharan African and 4 southern Asian countries. M:F mortality ratios were determined using information on 49 769 deaths among 521 551 children. We estimate M:F ratios for under-five (month 0-59), neonatal (month 0), post-neonatal (month 1-11) and child mortality (month 12-59) by maternal education while controlling for demographic and household characteristics. M:F ratios for under-five mortality and child mortality are compared with more 'gender neutral' thresholds (of 1.25 and 1.17, respectively) estimated on the basis of the Human Mortality Database. In sub-Saharan Africa, the M:F ratio for under-five mortality is 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.13] among non-educated mothers, 1.14 (95% CI 1.09-1.19) among mothers with some primary education and 1.25 (95% CI 1.16-1.34) among mothers with some secondary or more education. For southern Asia, the ratios are 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.95), 1.10 (95% CI 0.97-1.25) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.02-1.26), respectively. The M:F ratio for child mortality also shows an educational gradient in both regions, with the M:F ratio being lower among non-educated mothers. In southern Asia, the M:F ratio for child mortality is particularly low among mothers with no education, M:F ratio = 0.54 (95% CI 0.41-0.72). Among mothers with more education, the difference in the mortality chances of boys and girls more closely resembles a 'gender neutral' situation than among women with no or little education. Girls benefit both in absolute and relative terms from having a more educated mother.

Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.

PubMed

Wakefield, Jon; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Godwin, Jessica; Wilson, Katie; Clark, Samuel J

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the under-five mortality rate in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes a new model to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in both spatial and temporal description, that is wishing to estimate under-five mortality rate across regions and years and to investigate the association between the under-five mortality rate and spatially varying covariate surfaces. We illustrate the methodology by producing yearly estimates for subnational areas in Kenya over the period 1980-2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which use stratified cluster sampling. We use a binomial likelihood with fixed effects for the urban/rural strata and random effects for the clustering to account for the complex survey design. Smoothing is carried out using Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous spatial and temporally discrete components. A key component of the model is an offset to adjust for bias due to the effects of HIV epidemics. Substantively, there has been a sharp decline in Kenya in the under-five mortality rate in the period 1980-2014, but large variability in estimated subnational rates remains. A priority for future research is understanding this variability. In exploratory work, we examine whether a variety of spatial covariate surfaces can explain the variability in under-five mortality rate. Temperature, precipitation, a measure of malaria infection prevalence, and a measure of nearness to cities were candidates for inclusion in the covariate model, but the interplay between space, time, and covariates is complex.

Modern modeling techniques had limited external validity in predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-10-01

Prediction of medical outcomes may potentially benefit from using modern statistical modeling techniques. We aimed to externally validate modeling strategies for prediction of 6-month mortality of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) with predictor sets of increasing complexity. We analyzed individual patient data from 15 different studies including 11,026 TBI patients. We consecutively considered a core set of predictors (age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity), an extended set with computed tomography scan characteristics, and a further extension with two laboratory measurements (glucose and hemoglobin). With each of these sets, we predicted 6-month mortality using default settings with five statistical modeling techniques: logistic regression (LR), classification and regression trees, random forests (RFs), support vector machines (SVM) and neural nets. For external validation, a model developed on one of the 15 data sets was applied to each of the 14 remaining sets. This process was repeated 15 times for a total of 630 validations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the discriminative ability of the models. For the most complex predictor set, the LR models performed best (median validated AUC value, 0.757), followed by RF and support vector machine models (median validated AUC value, 0.735 and 0.732, respectively). With each predictor set, the classification and regression trees models showed poor performance (median validated AUC value, <0.7). The variability in performance across the studies was smallest for the RF- and LR-based models (inter quartile range for validated AUC values from 0.07 to 0.10). In the area of predicting mortality from TBI, nonlinear and nonadditive effects are not pronounced enough to make modern prediction methods beneficial. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Women's Education and Health Inequalities in Under-Five Mortality in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1990–2015

PubMed Central

Bado, Aristide Romaric; Sathiya Susuman, A.

2016-01-01

Background The aim of the study was to analyse trends in the relationship between mother’s educational level and mortality of children under the year of five in Sub-Saharan Africa, from 1990 to 2015. Data and Methods Data used in this study came from different waves of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Sub-Saharan countries. Logistic regression and Buis’s decomposition method were used to explore the effect of mother’s educational level on the mortality of children under five years. Results Although the results of our study in the selected countries show that under-five mortality rates of children born to mothers without formal education are higher than the mortality rates of children of educated mothers, it appears that differences in mortality were reduced over the past two decades. In selected countries for our study, we noticed a significant decline in mortality among children of non-educated mothers compared to the decrease in mortality rates among children of educated mothers during the period of 1990–2010. The results show that the decline in mortality of children under five years was much higher among the children born to mothers who have never received formal education—112 points drop in Malawi, over 80 in Zambia and Zimbabwe, 65 points in Burkina Faso, 56 in Congo, 43 in Namibia, 27 in Guinea, Cameroon, and 22 to 15 in Niger. However, we noted a variation in results among the countries selected for the study—in Burkina Faso (OR = 0.7), in Cameroon (OR = 0.8), in Guinea (OR = 0.8) and Niger (OR = 0.8). It is normally observed that children of mothers with 0–6 years of education are about 20% more likely to survive until their fifth year compared to children of mothers who have not been to school. Conversely, the results did not reveal significant differences between the under-five deaths of children born to non-educated mothers and children of low-level educated mothers in Congo, Malawi and Namibia. Conclusion The decline in under-five mortality rates, during last two decades, can be partly due to the government policies on women’s education. It is evident that women’s educational level has resulted in increased maternal awareness about infant health and hygiene, thereby bringing about a decline in the under-five mortality rates. This reduction is due to improved supply of health care programmes and health policies in reducing economic inequalities and increasing access to health care. PMID:27442118

Fine and Gray competing risk regression model to study the cause-specific under-five child mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mohammad, Khandoker Akib; Fatima-Tuz-Zahura, Most; Bari, Wasimul

2017-01-28

The cause-specific under-five mortality of Bangladesh has been studied by fitting cumulative incidence function (CIF) based Fine and Gray competing risk regression model (1999). For the purpose of analysis, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011 data set was used. Three types of mode of mortality for the under-five children are considered. These are disease, non-disease and other causes. Product-Limit survival probabilities for the under-five child mortality with log-rank test were used to select a set of covariates for the regression model. The covariates found to have significant association in bivariate analysis were only considered in the regression analysis. Potential determinants of under-five child mortality due to disease is size of child at birth, while gender of child, NGO (non-government organization) membership of mother, mother's education level, and size of child at birth are due to non-disease and age of mother at birth, NGO membership of mother, and mother's education level are for the mortality due to other causes. Female participation in the education programs needs to be increased because of the improvement of child health and government should arrange family and social awareness programs as well as health related programs for women so that they are aware of their child health.

Household air pollution from use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality: The role of breastfeeding status and kitchen location in Pakistan.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2017-01-01

Household air pollution (HAP) mainly from cooking fuel is one of the major causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and middle-income countries like Pakistan. This study investigates for the first time the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) data. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the association between HAP and under-five mortality in a total of 11,507 living children across four age-groups (neonatal aged 0-28 days, post-neonatal aged 1-11 months, child aged 12-59 months and under-five aged 0-59 months). Use of cooking fuel was weakly associated with total under-five mortality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 0.92-1.64, P = 0.170), with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of children aged 12-59 months (OR = 1.98, 95%CI = 0.75-5.25, P = 0.169). Strong associations between use of cooking fuel and mortality were evident (ORs >5) in those aged 12-59 months for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuels, and in children whose mother never breastfed. The results of this study suggest that HAP from cooking fuel is associated with a modest increase in the risk of death among children under five years of age in Pakistan, but particularly in those aged 12-59 months, and those living in poorer socioeconomic conditions. To reduce exposure to cooking fuel which is a preventable determinant of under-five mortality in Pakistan, the challenge remains to promote behavioural interventions such as breastfeeding in infancy period, keeping young children away from the cooking area, and improvements in housing and kitchen design.

Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture: findings from a nationally representative sample.

PubMed

Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

2015-01-01

Background. India accounts for 24% to all under-five mortality in the world. Residence in rural area, poverty and low levels of mother's education are known confounders of under-five mortality. Since two-thirds of India's population lives in rural areas, mothers employed in agriculture present a particularly vulnerable population in the Indian context and it is imperative that concerns of this sizeable population are addressed in order to achieve MDG4 targets of reducing U5MR to fewer than 41 per 1,000 by 2015. This study was conducted to examine factors associated with under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture. Methods. Data was retrieved from National Family Household Survey-3 in India (2008). The study population is comprised of a national representative sample of single children aged 0 to 59 months and born to mothers aged 15 to 49 years employed in agriculture from all 29 states of India. Univariate and Multivariate Cox PH regression analysis was used to analyse the Hazard Rates of mortality. The predictive power of child mortality among mothers employed in agriculture was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. An increase in mothers' ages corresponds with a decrease in child mortality. Breastfeeding reduces child mortality by 70% (HR 0.30, 0.25-0.35, p = 0.001). Standard of Living reduces child mortality by 32% with high standard of living (HR 0.68, 0.52-0.89, 0.001) in comparison to low standard of living. Prenatal care (HR 0.40, 0.34-0.48, p = 0.001) and breastfeeding health nutrition education (HR 0.45, 0.31-0.66, p = 0.001) are associated significant factors for child mortality. Birth Order five is a risk factor for mortality (HR 1.49, 1.05-2.10, p = 0.04) in comparison to Birth Order one among women engaged in agriculture while the household size (6-10 members and ≥ 11 members) is significant in reducing child mortality in comparison to ≤5 members in the house. Under-five mortality among mothers employed in agriculture in India discriminated well between death and survival (Area Under ROC was 0.75, 95% CI [0.73-0.77]) indicating that the model is good for appropriate prediction of child mortality. Conclusion. In a nationally representative sample of households in India, mother's age, breastfeeding, standard of living, prenatal care and breastfeeding health nutrition education are associated with reduction in child mortality.

Cooking fuel and risk of under-five mortality in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries: a population-based study.

PubMed

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Pan, Wen-Chi; Kuo, Hsien-Wen

2017-06-01

Relationship between cooking fuel and under-five mortality has not been adequately established in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We therefore investigated the association between cooking fuel and risk of under-five mortality in SSA, and further investigated its interaction with smoking. Using the most recent Demographic Health Survey data of 23 SSA countries (n = 783,691), Cox proportional hazard was employed to determine the association between cooking fuel and risk of under-five deaths. The adjusted hazard ratios were 1.21 (95 % CI, 1.10-1.34) and 1.20 (95 % CI, 1.08-1.32) for charcoal and biomass cooking fuel, respectively, compared to clean fuels. There was no positive interaction between biomass cooking fuel and smoking. Use of charcoal and biomass were associated with the risk of under-five mortality in SSA. Disseminating public health information on health risks of cooking fuel and development of relevant public health policies are likely to have a positive impact on a child's survival.

Socioeconomic and geographical disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Dettrick, Zoe; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2014-05-01

As a part of the Millennium Development Goals, India seeks to substantially reduce its burden of childhood mortality. The success or failure of this goal may depend on outcomes within India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. This study examines the level of disparities in under-five and neonatal mortality across a range of equity markers within the state. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using five datasets, from three available sources: sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Disparities were evaluated via comparisons of mortality rates by rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and districts. While Uttar Pradesh has experienced declines in both rates of under-five (162-108 per 1,000 live births) and neonatal (76-49 per 1,000 live births) mortality, the rate of decline has been slow (averaging 2 % per annum). Mortality trends in rural and urban areas are showing signs of convergence, largely due to the much slower rate of change in urban areas. While the gap between rich and poor households has decreased in both urban and rural areas, trends suggest that differences in mortality will remain. Caste-related disparities remain high and show no signs of diminishing. Of concern are also the signs of stagnation in mortality amongst groups with greater ability to access services, such as the urban middle class. Notwithstanding the slow but steady reduction of absolute levels of childhood mortality within Uttar Pradesh, the distribution of the mortality by sub-state populations remains unequal. Future progress may require significant investment in quality of care provided to all sections of the community.

Location matters: trends in inequalities in child mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Hodge, Andrew; Firth, Sonja; Marthias, Tiara; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2014-01-01

Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography. Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980-2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth. Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened. Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997-98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.

Ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adedini, Sunday A; Odimegwu, Clifford; Imasiku, Eunice N S; Ononokpono, Dorothy N

2015-01-01

There are huge regional disparities in under-five mortality in Nigeria. While a region within the country has as high as 222 under-five deaths per 1000 live births, the rate is as low as 89 per 1000 live births in another region. Nigeria is culturally diverse as there are more than 250 identifiable ethnic groups in the country; and various ethnic groups have different sociocultural values and practices which could influence child health outcome. Thus, the main objective of this study was to examine the ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria. The study utilized 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample drawn from 33,385 women aged 15-49 that had a total of 104,808 live births within 1993-2008. In order to examine ethnic differentials in under-five mortality over a sufficiently long period of time, our analysis considered live births within 15 years preceding the 2008 NDHS. The risks of death in children below age five were estimated using Cox proportional regression analysis. Results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The study found substantial differentials in under-five mortality by ethnic affiliations. For instance, risks of death were significantly lower for children of the Yoruba tribes (HR: 0.39, CI: 0.37-0.42, p < 0.001), children of Igbo tribes (HR: 0.58, CI: 0.55-0.61, p < 0.001) and children of the minority ethnic groups (HR: 0.66, CI: 0.64-0.68, p < 0.001), compared to children of the Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri tribes. Besides, practices such as plural marriage, having higher-order births and too close births showed statistical significance for increased risks of under-five mortality (p < 0.05). The findings of this study stress the need to address the ethnic norms and practices that negatively impact on child health and survival among some ethnic groups in Nigeria.

Five year experience in management of perforated peptic ulcer and validation of common mortality risk prediction models - are existing models sufficient? A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Anbalakan, K; Chua, D; Pandya, G J; Shelat, V G

2015-02-01

Emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate and early risk stratification is important. The primary aim of this study is to validate the various existing MRPMs and secondary aim is to audit our experience of managing PPU. 332 patients who underwent emergency surgery for PPU at a single intuition from January 2008 to December 2012 were studied. Clinical and operative details were collected. Four MRPMs: American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, Boey's score, Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score were validated. Median age was 54.7 years (range 17-109 years) with male predominance (82.5%). 61.7% presented within 24 h of onset of abdominal pain. Median length of stay was 7 days (range 2-137 days). Intra-abdominal collection, leakage, re-operation and 30-day mortality rates were 8.1%, 2.1%, 1.2% and 7.2% respectively. All the four MRPMs predicted intra-abdominal collection and mortality; however, only MPI predicted leak (p = 0.01) and re-operation (p = 0.02) rates. The area under curve for predicting mortality was 75%, 72%, 77.2% and 75% for ASA score, Boey's score, MPI and PULP score respectively. Emergency surgery for PPU has low morbidity and mortality in our experience. MPI is the only scoring system which predicts all - intra-abdominal collection, leak, reoperation and mortality. All four MRPMs had a similar and fair accuracy to predict mortality, however due to geographic and demographic diversity and inherent weaknesses of exiting MRPMs, quest for development of an ideal model should continue. Copyright © 2015 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data.

PubMed

Arku, Raphael E; Bennett, James E; Castro, Marcia C; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E; Ware, James H; Nyarko, Philomena; Spengler, John D; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Ezzati, Majid

2016-06-01

Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality-and its social and environmental risk factors-at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. We used 10% random samples of Ghana's 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana's 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana's districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends.

Entrenched geographical and socioeconomic disparities in child mortality: trends in absolute and relative inequalities in Cambodia.

PubMed

Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Durham, Jo; Hodge, Andrew

2014-01-01

Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country's child mortality inequalities. Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth. Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed. Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key supply and demand side barriers to accessing maternal and child health care and on the social determinants of health will be essential in narrowing inequalities.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-03-30

Exploring the effects of different types of PM 2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM 2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM 2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM 2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM 2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM 2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM 2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM 2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization's (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly.

The Associations between Types of Ambient PM2.5 and Under-Five and Maternal Mortality in Africa

PubMed Central

Owili, Patrick Opiyo; Lien, Wei-Hung; Muga, Miriam Adoyo; Lin, Tang-Huang

2017-01-01

Exploring the effects of different types of PM2.5 is necessary to reduce associated deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence we determined types of ambient PM2.5 before exploring their effects on under-five and maternal mortality in Africa. The spectral derivate of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products from 2000 to 2015 were employed to determine the aerosol types before using Generalized Linear and Additive Mixed-Effect models with Poisson link function to explore the associations and penalized spline for dose-response relationships. Four types of PM2.5 were identified in terms of mineral dust, anthropogenic pollutant, biomass burning and mixture aerosols. The results demonstrate that biomass PM2.5 increased the rate of under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa, each by 2%, and maternal mortality in Central Africa by 19%. Anthropogenic PM2.5 increased under-five and maternal deaths in Northern Africa by 5% and 10%, respectively, and maternal deaths by 4% in Eastern Africa. Dust PM2.5 increased under-five deaths in Northern, Western, and Central Africa by 3%, 1%, and 10%, respectively. Mixture PM2.5 only increased under-five deaths and maternal deaths in Western (incidence rate ratio = 1.01, p < 0.10) and Eastern Africa (incidence rate ratio = 1.06, p < 0.01), respectively. The findings indicate the types of ambient PM2.5 are significantly associated with under-five and maternal mortality in Africa where the exposure level usually exceeds the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standards. Appropriate policy actions on protective and control measures are therefore suggested and should be developed and implemented accordingly. PMID:28358348

Causes of Early Childhood Deaths in Urban Dhaka, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Halder, Amal K.; Gurley, Emily S.; Naheed, Aliya; Saha, Samir K.; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Arifeen, Shams El; Sazzad, Hossain M. S.; Kenah, Eben; Luby, Stephen P.

2009-01-01

Data on causes of early childhood death from low-income urban areas are limited. The nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2007 estimates 65 children died per 1,000 live births. We investigated rates and causes of under-five deaths in an urban community near two large pediatric hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh and evaluated the impact of different recall periods. We conducted a survey in 2006 for 6971 households and a follow up survey in 2007 among eligible remaining households or replacement households. The initial survey collected information for all children under five years old who died in the previous year; the follow up survey on child deaths in the preceding five years. We compared mortality rates based on 1-year recall to the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year. The initial survey identified 58 deaths among children <5 years in the preceding year. The follow up survey identified a mean 53 deaths per year in the preceding five years (SD±7.3). Under-five mortality rate was 34 and neonatal mortality was 15 per thousand live births during 2006–2007. The leading cause of under-five death was respiratory infections (22%). The mortality rates among children under 4 years old for the two time periods (most recent 1-year recall and the 4 years preceding the most recent 1 year) were similar (36 versus 32). The child mortality in urban Dhaka was substantially lower than the national rate. Mortality rates were not affected by recall periods between 1 and 5 years. PMID:19997507

South African child deaths 1990–2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kate J.; Lawn, Joy E.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Mahy, Mary; Dorrington, Rob E.; Phillips, Heston; Bradshaw, Debbie; Nannan, Nadine; Msemburi, William; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Walker, Neff P.; Sanders, David; Jackson, Debra

2013-01-01

Objective: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. Methods: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. Results: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37–39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. Conclusion: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall. PMID:23863402

Under-Five Mortality in High Focus States in India: A District Level Geospatial Analysis

PubMed Central

Kumar, Chandan; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Rai, Rajesh Kumar

2012-01-01

Background This paper examines if, when controlling for biophysical and geographical variables (including rainfall, productivity of agricultural lands, topography/temperature, and market access through road networks), socioeconomic and health care indicators help to explain variations in the under-five mortality rate across districts from nine high focus states in India. The literature on this subject is inconclusive because the survey data, upon which most studies of child mortality rely, rarely include variables that measure these factors. This paper introduces these variables into an analysis of 284 districts from nine high focus states in India. Methodology/Principal Findings Information on the mortality indicator was accessed from the recently conducted Annual Health Survey of 2011 and other socioeconomic and geographic variables from Census 2011, District Level Household and Facility Survey (2007–08), Department of Economics and Statistics Divisions of the concerned states. Displaying high spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) in the mortality indicator (outcome variable) and its possible predictors used in the analysis, the paper uses the Spatial-Error Model in an effort to negate or reduce the spatial dependence in model parameters. The results evince that the coverage gap index (a mixed indicator of district wise coverage of reproductive and child health services), female literacy, urbanization, economic status, the number of newborn care provided in Primary Health Centers in the district transpired as significant correlates of under-five mortality in the nine high focus states in India. The study identifies three clusters with high under-five mortality rate including 30 districts, and advocates urgent attention. Conclusion Even after controlling the possible biophysical and geographical variables, the study reveals that the health program initiatives have a major role to play in reducing under-five mortality rate in the high focus states in India. PMID:22629412

Potential Impacts of Modifiable Behavioral and Environmental Exposures on Reducing Burden of Under-five Mortality Associated with Household Air Pollution in Nepal.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2018-01-01

Objectives Household air pollution (HAP) is one of the leading causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and lower-middle income countries. This study examines for the first time trends in the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality and measures the potential impact of interventions to reduce HAP using Nepal Demographic and Health Survey datasets (2001-2011). Methods A total of 17,780 living children across four age-groups (neonatal 0-28 days, post-neonatal 1-11 months, child 12-59 months and under-five 0-59 months) were included and multi-level logistic regression models were used for analyses. Population attributable fractions of key risk factors and potential impact fractions assessing the impact of previous interventions to reduce exposure prevalence were also calculated. Results Use of cooking fuel was associated with total under-five mortality (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.37-3.51, P = 0.001) in Nepal, with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of neonatal mortality (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.47-4.82, P = 0.001). Higher association was found in rural areas and for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuel for cooking, and in women who had never breastfed for all age-groups of children. PIF estimates, assuming a 63% of reduction of HAP based on previously published interventions in Nepal, suggested that a burden of 40% of neonatal and 33% of under-five mortality cases associated with an indoor kitchen using polluting fuel could be avoidable. Conclusion Improved infrastructure and behavioral interventions could help reduce the pollution from cooking fuel in the household resulting in further reduction in under-five mortality in Nepal.

Household air pollution from use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality: The role of breastfeeding status and kitchen location in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Household air pollution (HAP) mainly from cooking fuel is one of the major causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and middle-income countries like Pakistan. This study investigates for the first time the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) data. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the association between HAP and under-five mortality in a total of 11,507 living children across four age-groups (neonatal aged 0–28 days, post-neonatal aged 1–11 months, child aged 12–59 months and under-five aged 0–59 months). Use of cooking fuel was weakly associated with total under-five mortality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 0.92–1.64, P = 0.170), with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of children aged 12–59 months (OR = 1.98, 95%CI = 0.75–5.25, P = 0.169). Strong associations between use of cooking fuel and mortality were evident (ORs >5) in those aged 12–59 months for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuels, and in children whose mother never breastfed. The results of this study suggest that HAP from cooking fuel is associated with a modest increase in the risk of death among children under five years of age in Pakistan, but particularly in those aged 12–59 months, and those living in poorer socioeconomic conditions. To reduce exposure to cooking fuel which is a preventable determinant of under-five mortality in Pakistan, the challenge remains to promote behavioural interventions such as breastfeeding in infancy period, keeping young children away from the cooking area, and improvements in housing and kitchen design. PMID:28278260

Epidemiology of under-five mortality in İstanbul: changes from 1988 to 2011.

PubMed

Buzcu, Aysun Fahriye; Yetim Şahin, Aylin; Karapinar, Esra; Erol, Özge; Gökçay, Emine Gülbin

2017-06-12

Understanding the causes of under-five deaths is key to realizing sustainable developmental goals. The aim of this descriptive study was to investigate the causes of under-five mortality in İstanbul during 2011 and compare the findings to those of 1988 and 2000. All burial records of İstanbul were evaluated, and cemetery records of 1494 children, who died at under five years of age and were buried in İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Cemeteries between 1 January and 31 December 2011, were analyzed. Several sociodemographic characteristics and causes of death were compared with the results of studies carried out in 1988 and 2000 in İstanbul with similar methods. Under-five mortality rate was lower in 2011 than in 1988 and 2000. Of all deaths, 58.8% had occurred in the neonatal period and most were in the first day of life, similarly to those of 1988 and 2000. The proportion of deaths in the age group of 1-4 years was found to be increasing. Prematurity and perinatal causes remained the main cause of death under five years of age in İstanbul during the 23-year period. Unknown causes, due to misclassification, were still seen in a relatively high proportion. Under-five mortality rate and death due to infectious diseases decreased in İstanbul from 1988 to 2011. Our findings showed a need for more emphasis on perinatal events and better evaluation of causes of death in clinical practice.

Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

PubMed

Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

2010-02-01

Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

Family type, domestic violence and under-five mortality in Nigeria.

PubMed

Titilayo, Ayotunde; Anuodo, Oludare O; Palamuleni, Martin E

2017-06-01

Nigeria still showcases unacceptably high under-five mortality despite all efforts to reduce the menace. Investigating the significant predictors of this occurrence is paramount. To examine the interplay between family setting, domestic violence and under-five death in Nigeria. Cross-sectional secondary data, the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, (NDHS) women dataset was utilized. Subset of 26,997 ever married and ever had childbirth experience respondents were extracted from the nationally representative women dataset. Dependent and Independent variables were recoded to suit the statistical analysis for the study. The study revealed that 33.7% of the respondents were in polygyny family setting; one-quarter of the ever married women reported ever experiencing one form of domestic violence or the other. The results of the logistic regressions indicate that family type and domestic violence were significant predictors of under-five children mortality in Nigeria. The study concludes that women who belong to polygyny family setting and who ever experienced sexual domestic violence are highly susceptible to experience under-five children mortality than their counterparts. The study recommends that strategies and policies aimed at improving child survival should strengthen women empowerment initiatives, discourage multiple wives and campaign against domestic violence in Nigeria.

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data

PubMed Central

Arku, Raphael E.; Bennett, James E.; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E.; Spengler, John D.; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality—and its social and environmental risk factors—at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. Methods and Findings We used 10% random samples of Ghana’s 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana’s 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana’s districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends. PMID:27327774

Prognostic indices for early mortality in ischaemic stroke - meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mattishent, K; Kwok, C S; Mahtani, A; Pelpola, K; Myint, P K; Loke, Y K

2016-01-01

Several models have been developed to predict mortality in ischaemic stroke. We aimed to evaluate systematically the performance of published stroke prognostic scores. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE in February 2014 for prognostic models (published between 2003 and 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ischaemic stroke. We evaluated discriminant ability of the tools through meta-analysis of the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of study validity: collection of prognostic variables, neuroimaging, treatment pathways and missing data. We identified 18 articles (involving 163 240 patients) reporting on the performance of prognostic models for mortality in ischaemic stroke, with 15 articles providing AUC for meta-analysis. Most studies were either retrospective, or post hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but three reported validation data. The iSCORE had the largest number of validation cohorts (five) within our systematic review and showed good performance in four different countries, pooled AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.87). We identified other potentially useful prognostic tools that have yet to be as extensively validated as iSCORE - these include SOAR (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.80), GWTG (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.72) and PLAN (1 study, pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.87). Our meta-analysis has identified and summarized the performance of several prognostic scores with modest to good predictive accuracy for early mortality in ischaemic stroke, with the iSCORE having the broadest evidence base. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using cluster analysis to identify phenotypes and validation of mortality in men with COPD.

PubMed

Chen, Chiung-Zuei; Wang, Liang-Yi; Ou, Chih-Ying; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Lin, Chien-Chung; Hsiue, Tzuen-Ren

2014-12-01

Cluster analysis has been proposed to examine phenotypic heterogeneity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to use cluster analysis to define COPD phenotypes and validate them by assessing their relationship with mortality. Male subjects with COPD were recruited to identify and validate COPD phenotypes. Seven variables were assessed for their relevance to COPD, age, FEV(1) % predicted, BMI, history of severe exacerbations, mMRC, SpO(2), and Charlson index. COPD groups were identified by cluster analysis and validated prospectively against mortality during a 4-year follow-up. Analysis of 332 COPD subjects identified five clusters from cluster A to cluster E. Assessment of the predictive validity of these clusters of COPD showed that cluster E patients had higher all cause mortality (HR 18.3, p < 0.0001), and respiratory cause mortality (HR 21.5, p < 0.0001) than those in the other four groups. Cluster E patients also had higher all cause mortality (HR 14.3, p = 0.0002) and respiratory cause mortality (HR 10.1, p = 0.0013) than patients in cluster D alone. COPD patient with severe airflow limitation, many symptoms, and a history of frequent severe exacerbations was a novel and distinct clinical phenotype predicting mortality in men with COPD.

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995–2010: a cross-sectional ecological study

PubMed Central

Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-01-01

Objective Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Design Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. Setting and Participants European Union countries 1995–2010. Main outcome measures Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. Results A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient −0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient −0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient −0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient −2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient −1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Conclusions Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. PMID:26510733

Changes in government spending on healthcare and population mortality in the European union, 1995-2010: a cross-sectional ecological study.

PubMed

Budhdeo, Sanjay; Watkins, Johnathan; Atun, Rifat; Williams, Callum; Zeltner, Thomas; Maruthappu, Mahiben

2015-12-01

Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted. European Union countries 1995-2010. Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality. A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient -0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient -0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient -2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient -1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics. Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Adedini, Sunday A.; Odimegwu, Clifford; Imasiku, Eunice N.S.; Ononokpono, Dorothy N.

2015-01-01

Objective. There are huge regional disparities in under-five mortality in Nigeria. While a region within the country has as high as 222 under-five deaths per 1000 live births, the rate is as low as 89 per 1000 live births in another region. Nigeria is culturally diverse as there are more than 250 identifiable ethnic groups in the country; and various ethnic groups have different sociocultural values and practices which could influence child health outcome. Thus, the main objective of this study was to examine the ethnic differentials in under-five mortality in Nigeria. Design. The study utilized 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample drawn from 33,385 women aged 15–49 that had a total of 104,808 live births within 1993–2008. In order to examine ethnic differentials in under-five mortality over a sufficiently long period of time, our analysis considered live births within 15 years preceding the 2008 NDHS. The risks of death in children below age five were estimated using Cox proportional regression analysis. Results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results. The study found substantial differentials in under-five mortality by ethnic affiliations. For instance, risks of death were significantly lower for children of the Yoruba tribes (HR: 0.39, CI: 0.37–0.42, p < 0.001), children of Igbo tribes (HR: 0.58, CI: 0.55–0.61, p < 0.001) and children of the minority ethnic groups (HR: 0.66, CI: 0.64–0.68, p < 0.001), compared to children of the Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri tribes. Besides, practices such as plural marriage, having higher-order births and too close births showed statistical significance for increased risks of under-five mortality (p < 0.05). Conclusion. The findings of this study stress the need to address the ethnic norms and practices that negatively impact on child health and survival among some ethnic groups in Nigeria. PMID:24593689

Neonatal Mortality and Inequalities in Bangladesh: Differential Progress and Sub-national Developments.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

2015-09-01

A rapid reduction in under-five mortality has put Bangladesh on-track to reach Millennium Development Goal 4. Little research, however, has been conducted into neonatal reductions and sub-national rates in the country, with considerable disparities potentially masked by national reductions. The aim of this paper is to estimate national and sub-national rates of neonatal mortality to compute relative and absolute inequalities between sub-national groups and draw comparisons with rates of under-five mortality. Mortality rates for under-five children and neonates were estimated directly for 1980-1981 to 2010-2011 using data from six waves of the Demographic and Health Survey. Rates were stratified by levels of rural/urban location, household wealth and maternal education. Absolute and relative inequalities within these groups were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. National mortality was shown to have decreased dramatically although at differential rates for under-fives and neonates. Across all equity markers, a general pattern of declining absolute but constant relative inequalities was found. For mortality rates stratified by education and wealth mixed evidence suggests that relative inequalities may have also fallen. Although disparities remain, Bangladesh has achieved a rare combination of substantive reductions in mortality levels without increases in relative inequalities. A coalescence of substantial increases in coverage and equitable distribution of key child and neonatal interventions with widespread health sectoral and policy changes over the last 30 years may in part explain this exceptional pattern.

Reducing under-five mortality through Hôpital Albert Schweitzer's integrated system in Haiti.

PubMed

Perry, Henry; Cayemittes, Michel; Philippe, Francois; Dowell, Duane; Dortonne, Jean Richard; Menager, Henri; Bottex, Erve; Berggren, Warren; Berggren, Gretchen

2006-05-01

The degree to which local health systems contribute to reductions in under-five mortality in severely impoverished settings has not been well documented. The current study compares the under-five mortality in the Hôpital Albert Schweitzer (HAS) Primary Health Care Service Area with that for Haiti in general. HAS provides an integrated system of community-based primary health care services, hospital care and community development. A sample of 10% of the women of reproductive age in the HAS service area was interviewed, and 2390 live births and 149 child deaths were documented for the period 1995-99. Under-five mortality rates were computed and compared with rates for Haiti. In addition, available data regarding inputs, processes and outputs for the HAS service area and for Haiti were assembled and compared. Under-five mortality was 58% less in the HAS service area, and mortality for children 12-59 months of age was 76% less. These results were achieved with an input of fewer physicians and hospital beds per capita than is available for Haiti nationwide, but with twice as many graduate nurses and auxiliary nurses per capita than are available nationwide, and with three cadres of health workers that do not exist nationwide: Physician Extenders, Health Agents and Community Health Volunteers. The population coverage of targeted child survival services was generally 1.5-2 times higher in the HAS service area than in rural Haiti. These findings support the conclusion that a well-developed system of primary health care, with outreach services to the household level, integrated with hospital referral care and community development programmes, can make a strong contribution to reducing infant and child mortality in severely impoverished settings.

Associates of Neonatal, Infant and Child Mortality in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan: A Multilevel Analysis Using the 2012-2013 Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Helova, Anna; Hearld, Kristine R; Budhwani, Henna

2017-02-01

Objectives Pakistan is one of five nations contributing to half of the world's child mortality and holds under-five mortality rates which are nearly double global targets. Reasons for this shortfall include civil conflicts, political uncertainty, low education, poverty, rural-urban disparities, and limited health care access. The aim of this study was to explore associations between individual characteristics, community factors, and child mortality in Pakistan. Methods Data were derived from the 2012 to 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, and included 7399 live births and 380 child deaths. Multivariate, multilevel logistic regression was used to model risk of neonatal, infant and under-five child deaths. Results Seventy-one percent of child deaths occurred during the neonatal period. Significant factors (p < 0.05) associated with lower odds of child mortality included adhering to recommended minimum of 24 months interpregnancy interval and higher household wealth. These were significant for neonatal (OR 0.448; 0.871), infancy (OR 0.465; 0.881), and under-five deaths (OR 0.465; 0.879). Employed mothers had higher odds of neonatal (OR 1.479), infant (OR 1.506), and child mortality (OR 1.459). Likewise, women living in consanguineous marriages had higher odds of infant (OR 1.454) and under-five deaths (OR 1.381). Children in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh, regions disproportionately poor, rural with low levels of education, were at highest risk of dying. Conclusions for Practice Findings may assist in designing targeted interventions, developing appropriate public health messaging, and implementing policies designed to lower child mortality. Focusing on lowering rates of maternal poverty, increasing opportunities for education, and improving access to health care could assist in reducing child mortality in Pakistan.

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines.

PubMed

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980-2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated.

Overcoming Stagnation in the Levels and Distribution of Child Mortality: The Case of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Bermejo, Raoul; Firth, Sonja; Hodge, Andrew; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Zeck, Willibald

2015-01-01

Background Health-related within-country inequalities continue to be a matter of great interest and concern to both policy makers and researchers. This study aims to assess the level and the distribution of child mortality outcomes in the Philippines across geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Methodology Data on 159,130 children ever borne were analysed from five waves of the Philippine Demographic and Health Survey. Direct estimation was used to construct under-five and neonatal mortality rates for the period 1980–2013. Rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure disparities on absolute and relative scales. Stratification was undertaken by levels of rural/urban location, island groups and household wealth. Findings National under-five and neonatal mortality rates have shown considerable albeit differential reductions since 1980. Recently released data suggests that neonatal mortality has declined following a period of stagnation. Declines in under-five mortality have been accompanied by decreases in wealth and geography-related absolute inequalities. However, relative inequalities for the same markers have remained stable over time. For neonates, mixed evidence suggests that absolute and relative inequalities have remained stable or may have risen. Conclusion In addition to continued reductions in under-five mortality, new data suggests that the Philippines have achieved success in addressing the commonly observed stagnated trend in neonatal mortality. This success has been driven by economic improvement since 2006 as well as efforts to implement a nationwide universal health care campaign. Yet, such patterns, nonetheless, accorded with persistent inequalities, particularly on a relative scale. A continued focus on addressing universal coverage, the influence of decentralisation and armed conflict, and issues along the continuum of care is advocated. PMID:26431409

Inequities in under-five mortality in Nigeria: differentials by religious affiliation of the mother.

PubMed

Antai, Diddy; Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus; Wedrén, Sara; Macassa, Gloria; Moradi, Tahereh

2009-09-01

Observations in Nigeria have indicated polio vaccination refusal related to religion that ultimately affected child morbidity and mortality. This study assessed the role of religion in under-five (0-59 months) mortality using a cross-sectional, nationally representative sample of 7,620 women aged 15-49 years from the 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and included 6,029 children. Results show that mother's affiliation to Traditional indigenous religion is significantly associated with increased under-five mortality. Multivariable modelling demonstrated that this association is explained by differential use of maternal and child health services, specifically attendance to prenatal care. To reduce child health inequity, these results need to be incorporated in the formulation of child health policies geared towards achieving a high degree of attendance to prenatal care, irrespective of religious affiliation.

Socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality in rural Bangladesh: evidence from seven national surveys spreading over 20 years.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Asiful Haidar; Hanifi, Syed Manzoor Ahmed; Mia, Mohammad Nahid; Bhuiya, Abbas

2017-11-13

Socioeconomic inequality in health and mortality remains a disturbing reality across nations including Bangladesh. Inequality drew renewed attention globally. Bangladesh though made impressive progress in health, it makes an interesting case for learning. This paper examined the trends and changing pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality in rural Bangladesh. It also examined whether mother's education had any effect in reducing socioeconomic inequalities. Data from rural samples of seven Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys, carried out so far, were used. Children born alive during 5 years preceding the surveys were included in the analysis. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out. Under-five mortality rate steadily declined over the years from 128/1000 in 1994 to 48 in 2014. Females had 8% lower mortality rates than males. Children of mothers with no schooling had 1.88 times higher mortality than those whose mother had six or more years of schooling. Similarly, children from low asset category households had on an average 1.17 times higher mortality rate than those from high asset category households. Inequality by mother's education disappeared in the recent years, and inequality by household socioeconomic condition persisted all through. The pattern of inequality by sex, mother's education, and household socioeconomic status was not changed statistically significantly over the years, and mothers' education did not reduce socioeconomic inequalities. The reduction in mortality was consistent with changes in the proximate determinants of child survival in the country. Proximate determinants included maternal factors, environmental contamination, nutrient deficiency, personal illness control, and injury. Health and population programmes have been effective in increasing immunization coverage, use of ORS for managing diarrhoeal diseases, and increasing contraceptive use. Development activities on the other hand raised the literacy, especially among females, demand for modern health services, and reduction of poverty. However, socioeconomic inequality still exists in both under-five mortality and proximate determinants of child survival. The socioeconomic inequality in under-five mortality is showing resistance against further reduction. An assessment of the adequacy of the existing programmes taking the proximate determinants of child survival into consideration will be useful for further improvement.

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

Iron/folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents neonatal and under-five mortality in Pakistan: propensity score matched sample from two Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Nisar, Yasir B; Dibley, Michael J

2016-01-01

Several epidemiological studies from low- and middle-income countries have reported a protective effect of maternal antenatal iron/folic acid (IFA) on childhood mortality. The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal antenatal IFA supplementation on childhood mortality in Pakistan. A propensity score-matched sample of 8,512 infants live-born within the 5 years prior to interview was selected from the pooled data of two Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (2006/07 and 2012/13). The primary outcomes were childhood mortality indicators and the main exposure variable was maternal antenatal IFA supplementation. Post-matched analyses used Cox proportional hazards regression and adjusted for 16 potential confounders. Maternal antenatal IFA supplementation significantly reduced the adjusted risk of death on day 0 by 33% [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=0.67, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.48-0.94], during the neonatal period by 29% (aHR=0.71, 95% CI 0.57-0.88), and for under-fives by 27% (aHR=0.73, 95% CI 0.60-0.89). When IFA was initiated in the first 4 months of pregnancy, the adjusted risk of neonatal and under-five deaths was significantly reduced by 35 and 33%, respectively. Twenty percent of under-five deaths were attributable to non-initiation of IFA in the first 4 months of pregnancy. With universal initiation of IFA in the first 4 months of pregnancy, 80,300 under-five deaths could be prevented annually in Pakistan. Maternal antenatal IFA supplementation significantly reduced neonatal and under-five deaths in Pakistan. Earlier initiation of supplements in pregnancy was associated with a greater prevention of neonatal and under-five deaths.

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

PubMed Central

Sawyer, Cheryl Chriss

2012-01-01

Introduction Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s. Methods and Findings Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter. Conclusions The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952433

Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Rostami, Mehran; Jalilian, Abdollah; Hamzeh, Behrooz; Laghaei, Zahra

2015-01-01

The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for 30-Day Mortality in Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Sengupta, Neil; Tapper, Elliot B

2017-05-01

There are limited data to predict which patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding are at risk for adverse outcomes. We aimed to develop a clinical tool based on admission variables to predict 30-day mortality in lower gastrointestinal bleeding. We used a validated machine learning algorithm to identify adult patients hospitalized with lower gastrointestinal bleeding at an academic medical center between 2008 and 2015. The cohort was split randomly into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we used multiple logistic regression on all candidate admission variables to create a prediction model for 30-day mortality, using area under the receiving operator characteristic curve and misclassification rate to estimate prediction accuracy. Regression coefficients were used to derive an integer score, and mortality risk associated with point totals was assessed. In the derivation cohort (n = 4044), 8 variables were most associated with 30-day mortality: age, dementia, metastatic cancer, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, anticoagulant use, admission hematocrit, and albumin. The model yielded a misclassification rate of 0.06 and area under the curve of 0.81. The integer score ranged from -10 to 26 in the derivation cohort, with a misclassification rate of 0.11 and area under the curve of 0.74. In the validation cohort (n = 2060), the score had an area under the curve of 0.72 with a misclassification rate of 0.12. After dividing the score into 4 quartiles of risk, 30-day mortality in the derivation and validation sets was 3.6% and 4.4% in quartile 1, 4.9% and 7.3% in quartile 2, 9.9% and 9.1% in quartile 3, and 24% and 26% in quartile 4, respectively. A clinical tool can be used to predict 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causes and differentials of childhood mortality in Iraq

PubMed Central

Awqati, Naira A; Ali, Mohamed M; Al-Ward, Nada J; Majeed, Faiza A; Salman, Khawla; Al-Alak, Mahdi; Al-Gasseer, Naeema

2009-01-01

Background Limited information is available in Iraq regarding the causes of under-five mortality. The vital registration system is deficient in its coverage, particularly from rural areas where access to health services is limited and most deaths occur at home, i.e. outside the health system, and hence the cause of death goes unreported. Knowledge of patterns and trends in causes of under-five mortality is essential for decision-makers in assessing programmatic needs, prioritizing interventions, and monitoring progress. The aim of this study was to identify causes of under-five children deaths using a simplified verbal autopsy questionnaire. The objective was to define the leading symptoms and cause of death among Iraqi children from all regions of Iraq during 1994–1999. Methods To determine the cause structure of child deaths, a simplified verbal autopsy questionnaire was used in interviews conducted in the Iraqi Child & Maternal Mortality Survey (ICMMS) 1999 national sample. All the mothers/caregivers of the deceased children were asked open-ended questions about the symptoms within the two weeks preceding death; they could mention more than one symptom. Results The leading cause of death among under-five children was found to be childhood illnesses in 81.2%, followed by sudden death in 8.9% and accidents in 3.3%. Among under-five children dying of illnesses, cough and difficulty in breathing were the main symptoms preceding death in 34.0%, followed by diarrhea in 24.4%. Among neonates the leading cause was cough/and or difficulty in breathing in 42.3%, followed by sudden death in 11.9%, congenital abnormalities in 10.3% and prematurity in 10.2%. Diarrhea was the leading cause of death among infants in 49.8%, followed by cough and/or difficulty in breathing in 26.6%. Among children 12–59 months diarrhea was the leading cause of death in 43.4%, followed by accidents, injuries, and poisoning in 19.3%, then cough/difficulty in breathing in 14.8%. Conclusion In Iraq Under-five child mortality is one of the highest in the Middle East region; deaths during the neonatal period accounted for more than half of under-five children deaths highlighting an urgent need to introduce health interventions to improve essential neonatal care. Priority needs to be given to the prevention, early and effective treatment of neonatal conditions, diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections, and accidents. This study points to the need for further standardized assessments of under-5 mortality in Iraq. PMID:19545410

Residual confounding explains the association between high parity and child mortality.

PubMed

Kozuki, Naoko; Sonneveldt, Emily; Walker, Neff

2013-01-01

This study used data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine the impact of high parity on under-five and neonatal mortality. The analyses used various techniques to attempt eliminating selection issues, including stratification of analyses by mothers' completed fertility. We analyzed DHS datasets from 47 low- and middle-income countries. We only used data from women who were age 35 or older at the time of survey to have a measure of their completed fertility. We ran log-binominal regression by country to calculate relative risk between parity and both under-five and neonatal mortality, controlled for wealth quintile, maternal education, urban versus rural residence, maternal age at first birth, calendar year (to control for possible time trends), and birth interval. We then controlled for maternal background characteristics even further by using mothers' completed fertility as a proxy measure. We found a statistically significant association between high parity and child mortality. However, this association is most likely not physiological, and can be largely attributed to the difference in background characteristics of mothers who complete reproduction with high fertility versus low fertility. Children of high completed fertility mothers have statistically significantly increased risk of death compared to children of low completed fertility mothers at every birth order, even after controlling for available confounders (i.e. among children of birth order 1, adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.58, 95% CI: 1.42, 1.76). There appears to be residual confounders that put children of high completed fertility mothers at higher risk, regardless of birth order. When we examined the association between parity and under-five mortality among mothers with high completed fertility, it remained statistically significant, but negligible in magnitude (i.e. adjusted RR of under-five mortality 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Our analyses strongly suggest that the observed increased risk of mortality associated with high parity births is not driven by a physiological link between parity and mortality. We found that at each birth order, children born to women who have high fertility at the end of their reproductive period are at significantly higher mortality risk than children of mothers who have low fertility, even after adjusting for available confounders. With each unit increase in birth order, a larger proportion of births at the population level belongs to mothers with these adverse characteristics correlated with high fertility. Hence it appears as if mortality rates go up with increasing parity, but not for physiological reasons.

Community-acquired bacterial pneumonia in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients: validation of severity criteria. The Grupo Andaluz para el Estudio de las Enfermedades Infecciosas.

PubMed

Cordero, E; Pachón, J; Rivero, A; Girón, J A; Gómez-Mateos, J; Merino, M D; Torres-Tortosa, M; González-Serrano, M; Aliaga, L; Collado, A; Hernández-Quero, J; Barrera, A; Nuño, E

2000-12-01

Severity criteria for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) have always excluded patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A 1-yr, multicenter, prospective observational study of HIV-infected patients with bacterial CAP was done to validate the criteria used in the American Thoracic Society (ATS) guidelines for CAP, and to determine the prognosis-associated factors in the HIV-infected population with bacterial CAP. Overall, 355 cases were included, with an attributable mortality of 9.3%. Patients who met the ATS criteria had a longer hospital stay (p = 0.01), longer duration of fever (p < 0.001), and higher attributable mortality (13.1% versus 3.5%, p = 0.02) than those who did not. Three factors were independently related to mortality: CD4(+) cell count < 100/microl, radiologic progression of disease, and shock. Pleural effusion, cavities, and/or multilobar infiltrates at admission were independently associated with radiologic progression. A prognostic rule based on the five criteria of shock, CD4(+) cell count < 100/microl, pleural effusion, cavities, and multilobar infiltrates had a high negative predictive value for mortality (97.1%). The attributable mortality for severe pneumonia was 11.3%, as compared with 1.3% for nonsevere disease (p = 0.008). The ATS severity criteria are valid in HIV-infected patients with bacterial CAP. Our study provides the basis for identification of patients who may require hospitalization determined by clinical judgment and the five clinical criteria of shock, a CD4(+) cell count < 100/microl, pleural effusion, cavities, and multilobar involvement. These prognostic factors should be validated in independent cohort studies.

Disparities in child mortality trends: what is the evidence from disadvantaged states in India? the case of Orissa and Madhya Pradesh.

PubMed

Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dayal, Prarthna; Hodge, Andrew

2013-06-27

The Millennium Development Goals prompted renewed international efforts to reduce under-five mortality and measure national progress. However, scant evidence exists about the distribution of child mortality at low sub-national levels, which in diverse and decentralized countries like India are required to inform policy-making. This study estimates changes in child mortality across a range of markers of inequalities in Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, two of India's largest, poorest, and most disadvantaged states. Estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were computed using seven datasets from three available sources--sample registration system, summary birth histories in surveys, and complete birth histories. Inequalities were gauged by comparison of mortality rates within four sub-state populations defined by the following characteristics: rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth, and district. Trend estimates suggest that progress has been made in mortality rates at the state levels. However, reduction rates have been modest, particularly for neonatal mortality. Different mortality rates are observed across all the equity markers, although there is a pattern of convergence between rural and urban areas, largely due to inadequate progress in urban settings. Inter-district disparities and differences between socioeconomic groups are also evident. Although child mortality rates continue to decline at the national level, our evidence shows that considerable disparities persist. While progress in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality rates in urban areas appears to be levelling off, policies targeting rural populations and scheduled caste and tribe groups appear to have achieved some success in reducing mortality differentials. The results of this study thus add weight to recent government initiatives targeting these groups. Equitable progress, particularly for neonatal mortality, requires continuing efforts to strengthen health systems and overcome barriers to identify and reach vulnerable groups.

Geographical Detector-Based Risk Assessment of the Under-Five Mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

PubMed Central

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.

Factors associated with declining under-five mortality rates from 2000 to 2013: an ecological analysis of 46 African countries.

PubMed

Kipp, Aaron M; Blevins, Meridith; Haley, Connie A; Mwinga, Kasonde; Habimana, Phanuel; Shepherd, Bryan E; Aliyu, Muktar H; Ketsela, Tigest; Vermund, Sten H

2016-01-08

Inadequate overall progress has been made towards the 4th Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Progress has been variable across African countries. We examined health, economic and social factors potentially associated with reductions in under-five mortality (U5M) from 2000 to 2013. Ecological analysis using publicly available data from the 46 nations within the WHO African Region. We assessed the annual rate of change (ARC) of 70 different factors and their association with the annual rate of reduction (ARR) of U5M rates using robust linear regression models. Most factors improved over the study period for most countries, with the largest increases seen for economic or technological development and external financing factors. The median (IQR) U5M ARR was 3.6% (2.8 to 5.1%). Only 4 of 70 factors demonstrated a strong and significant association with U5M ARRs, adjusting for potential confounders. Higher ARRs were associated with more rapidly increasing coverage of seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection (β=0.22 (ie, a 1% increase in the ARC was associated with a 0.22% increase in ARR); 90% CI 0.09 to 0.35; p=0.01), increasing health expenditure relative to gross domestic product (β=0.26; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41; p=0.02), increasing fertility rate (β=0.54; 95% CI 0.07 to 1.02; p=0.07) and decreasing maternal mortality ratio (β=-0.47; 95% CI -0.69 to -0.24; p<0.01). The majority of factors showed no association or raised validity concerns due to missing data from a large number of countries. Improvements in sociodemographic, maternal health and governance and financing factors were more likely associated with U5M ARR. These underscore the essential role of contextual factors facilitating child health interventions and services. Surveillance of these factors could help monitor which countries need additional support in reducing U5M. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY AS A MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENI GOAL IN ROMANIA.

PubMed

Duma, Olga-Odetta; Roşu, Solange Tamara; Petrariu, F D; Manole, M; Constantin, Brânduşa

2016-01-01

To assess the efforts made in Romania towards achieving the Goal 4 from MDGs--Reduce Child Mortality. A descriptive study about the deaths among Romanian children under five, between 2002 and 2015, from the perspective of the MDGs. To help track progress toward this commitment, following specific targets and indicators were developed: Target 1-Halve the mortality rate in children aged 1-4 years between 2002-2015; Target 2--Reduce infant mortality by 40% between 2002 and 2015; Target 3--Eliminate measles by 2007. The comparison allows establish the status (achieved or not) for each target. From 2002, the under-five mortality rate recorded a continuous descendent trend till now (20.8 to 10.3 under five deaths per 1000 inhabitants in 2013). The infant mortality rates declined from 17.3 to 8.5 deaths per 1,000 live births (2002-2013). Eliminating measles by 2007--was achieved one year later, because of the measles epidemic in 2005 and 2006. High vaccination rates have been maintained, with the proportion of children 1 year old vaccinated against measles reaching and being maintained at between 94-98%. Substantial progress has been made in Romania, in achieving the Millennium Development Goal no. 4. All the three targets were achieved. However, infant mortality still remains above the average of European Union (4 infant deaths per 1,000 live-births).

Estimates of performance in the rate of decline of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jamison, Dean T

2014-03-01

BACKGROUND; Measuring country performance in health has focused on assessing predicted vs observed levels of outcomes, an indicator that varies slowly over time. An alternative is to measure performance in terms of the rate of change in how a selected outcome compares to what would be expected given contextual determinants. Rates of change in health indicators can prove more sensitive than levels to changes in social, intersectoral or health policy context. It is thus similar to the growth rate of gross domestic product in the economic context. We assess performance in the rate of change (decline) of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries. For 1970-2010, we study the evolution in rates of decline of under-five mortality. For each decade, we define performance as the average of the difference between the observed rate of decline and a rate of decline predicted by a model controlling for the contextual factors of income, female education levels, decade and geographical location. In the 1970s, the top performer in the rate of decline of under-five mortality was Costa Rica. In the 2000s, the top performer was Turkey. Overall, performance in rates of decline correlated little with performance in levels of under-five mortality. A major transition in performance between decades suggests a change in underlying determinants and we report the magnitude of these transitions. For example, heavily AIDS impacted countries, such as Botswana, experienced major drops in performance between the 1980s and the 1990s and some, including Botswana, experienced major compensatory improvements between the 1990s and the 2000s. Rate-based measures of country performance in health provide a starting point for assessments of the importance of health system, social and intersectoral determinants of performance.

Association between community management of pneumonia and diarrhoea in high-burden countries and the decline in under-five mortality rates: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Dilip, Thandassery Ramachandran; Costello, Anthony

2017-02-14

The objective of the paper is to explore if the adoption of national policies to use community-based health providers for the management of pneumonia and diarrhoea is associated with the decline in under-five mortality, including achievement of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)4 target, in high-burden countries. This country level analysis covers 75 high-burden low-income and middle-income countries which accounted for 98% of the 5.9 million global under-five deaths in 2015. One-fourth of these deaths were due to pneumonia and diarrhoea. χ 2 tests and multiple regression analysis were used to examine the association between reduction in under-five mortality rates and community case management of pneumonia and diarrhoea by adjusting for the influence of other possible determinants. No patient or population interviewed/examined for this analysis. Countries were the unit of analysis. Community case management (CCM) of pneumonia and diarrhoea policies. Changes in under-five mortality rates over time. Countries that had adopted both CCM policies were three times more likely to achieve the MDG4 target than countries that did not have both policies in place. This association was further confirmed by the multivariate analysis (β-coefficient=10.4; 95% CI 2.4 to 18.5; p value=0.012). There is a statistically significant association between adoption of CCM policies for treatment of pneumonia and diarrhoea and the rate of decline in child mortality levels. It is important to promote CCM in countries lagging behind to achieve the new target of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Impact of health services, sanitation and literacy in the mortality of children under 5 years of age

PubMed

Gutiérrez, G; Reyes, H; Fernández, S; Pérez, L; Pérez-Cuevas, R; Guiscafré, H

1999-01-01

To analyze differences of the impact of health care services, sanitation and literacy on the mortality rates of children under five years of age, in two Mexican states with marked socioeconomic differences: Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. The study design was ecologic, based on a retrospective analysis of data published by the Health Ministry (Secretaría de Salud), National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática) and the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población), on the tendencies of mortality among children under five years and on the changes of selected indicators corresponding to the period 1990-1997. ecologic study. This was based on a retrospective analysis of data published by Secretaría de Salud, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática and Consejo Nacional de Población, about the tendencies of mortality among children under five years, and about the changes of selected indicators. The analysis was carried out in the period comprised between 1990-1997. For both states the registered variations were calculated and the trends were determined through analysis of simple linear regression; the independent variable corresponded to the study years. Partial correlation analysis between the various mortality trends studies and between and the selected indicators, were calculated. During the studied period there was a steady decline of children mortality, which was more marked in Chiapas. In both entities, this decrease was closely related to the decline in mortality due to acute diarrhea, and also correlated with a descent in measles and acute respiratory infections. In Chiapas, the indicators which correlated more significantly with this decline in mortality were vaccination coverage and literacy. In Nuevo Leon, the indicators with greater correlation were the increase in the number of nurses, of lodgings with piped water and vaccination coverage. During the analyzed period, the mortality rate of children under five years of age decreased in the states of Chiapas and Nuevo Leon. To sustain or accelerate the decline in childhood mortality it is mandatory to continue with the currently implemented programs, and in Chiapas, and similar states, to increase the available infrastructure to provide health care.

The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal.

PubMed Central

Ahmad, O. B.; Lopez, A. D.; Inoue, M.

2000-01-01

The present paper examines, describes and documents country-specific trends in under-five mortality rates (i.e., mortality among children under five years of age) in the 1990s. Our analysis updates previous studies by UNICEF, the World Bank and the United Nations. It identifies countries and WHO regions where sustained improvement has occurred and those where setbacks are evident. A consistent series of estimates of under-five mortality rate is provided and an indication is given of historical trends during the period 1950-2000 for both developed and developing countries. It is estimated that 10.5 million children aged 0-4 years died in 1999, about 2.2 million or 17.5% fewer than a decade earlier. On average about 15% of newborn children in Africa are expected to die before reaching their fifth birthday. The corresponding figures for many other parts of the developing world are in the range 3-8% and that for Europe is under 2%. During the 1990s the decline in child mortality decelerated in all the WHO regions except the Western Pacific but there is no widespread evidence of rising child mortality rates. At the country level there are exceptions in southern Africa where the prevalence of HIV is extremely high and in Asia where a few countries are beset by economic difficulties. The slowdown in the rate of decline is of particular concern in Africa and South-East Asia because it is occurring at relatively high levels of mortality, and in countries experiencing severe economic dislocation. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues in Africa, particularly southern Africa, and in parts of Asia, further reductions in child mortality become increasingly unlikely until substantial progress in controlling the spread of HIV is achieved. PMID:11100613

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)].

PubMed

Cassana, Alessandra; Scialom, Silvia; Segura, Eddy R; Chacaltana, Alfonso

2015-07-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru. This was a longitudinal, retrospective, analytical validation study, with data from patients with a clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated at the Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins between June 2012 and December 2013. We calculated the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality with a 95% confidence interval. A total of 339 records were analyzed. 57.5% were male and the mean age (standard deviation) was 67.0 (15.7) years. The median of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System obtained in the population was 12. The ROC analysis for death gave an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.5-0.7). Stratifying by type of upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulted in an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.53-0.78) for non-variceal type. In this population, the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System has no diagnostic validity for predicting mortality.

Comparing progress toward the millennium development goal for under-five mortality in León and Cuatro Santos, Nicaragua, 1990–2008

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Social inequality in child survival hampers the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4). Monitoring under-five mortality in different social strata may contribute to public health policies that strive to reduce social inequalities. This population-based study examines the trends, causes, and social inequality of mortality before the age of five years in rural and urban areas in Nicaragua. Methods The study was conducted in one rural (Cuatro Santos) and one urban/rural area (León) based on data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We analyzed live births from 1990 to 2005 in the urban/rural area and from 1990 to 2008 in the rural area. The annual average rate reduction (AARR) and social under-five mortality inequality were calculated using the education level of the mother as a proxy for socio-economic position. Causes of child death were based on systematic interviews (verbal autopsy). Results Under-five mortality in all areas is declining at a rate sufficient to achieve MDG4 by 2015. Urban León showed greater reduction (AARR = 8.5%) in mortality and inequality than rural León (AARR = 4.5%) or Cuatro Santos (AARR = 5.4%). Social inequality in mortality had increased in rural León and no improvement in survival was observed among mothers who had not completed primary school. However, the poor and remote rural area Cuatro Santos was on track to reach MDG4 with equitable child survival. Most of the deaths in both areas were due to neonatal conditions and infectious diseases. Conclusions All rural and urban areas in Nicaragua included in this study were on track to reach MDG4, but social stratification in child survival showed different patterns; unfavorable patterns with increasing inequity in the peri-urban rural zone and a more equitable development in the urban as well as the poor and remote rural area. An equitable progress in child survival may also be accelerated in very poor settings. PMID:24428933

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview.

PubMed

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Kalter, Henry D; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E

2017-01-01

Nigeria's under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1-59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1-59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1-59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview

PubMed Central

Adewemimo, Adeyinka; Perin, Jamie; Koffi, Alain K.; Quinley, John; Black, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Nigeria’s under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1–59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1–59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1–59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country. PMID:28562611

Neo-liberal economic practices and population health: a cross-national analysis, 1980-2004.

PubMed

Tracy, Melissa; Kruk, Margaret E; Harper, Christine; Galea, Sandro

2010-04-01

Although there has been substantial debate and research concerning the economic impact of neo-liberal practices, there is a paucity of research about the potential relation between neo-liberal economic practices and population health. We assessed the extent to which neo-liberal policies and practices are associated with population health at the national level. We collected data on 119 countries between 1980 and 2004. We measured neo-liberalism using the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) Index, which gives an overall score as well as a score for each of five different aspects of neo-liberal economic practices: (1) size of government, (2) legal structure and security of property rights, (3) access to sound money, (4) freedom to exchange with foreigners and (5) regulation of credit, labor and business. Our measure of population health was under-five mortality. We controlled for potential mediators (income distribution, social capital and openness of political institutions) and confounders (female literacy, total population, rural population, fertility, gross domestic product per capita and time period). In longitudinal multivariable analyses, we found that the EFW index did not have an effect on child mortality but that two of its components: improved security of property rights and access to sound money were associated with lower under-five mortality (p = 0.017 and p = 0.024, respectively). When stratifying the countries by level of income, less regulation of credit, labor and business was associated with lower under-five mortality in high-income countries (p = 0.001). None of the EFW components were significantly associated with under-five mortality in low-income countries. This analysis suggests that the concept of 'neo-liberalism' is not a monolithic entity in its relation to health and that some 'neo-liberal' policies are consistent with improved population health. Further work is needed to corroborate or refute these findings.

Impact of Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapy and Insecticide-Treated Nets on Malaria Burden in Zanzibar

PubMed Central

Bhattarai, Achuyt; Ali, Abdullah S; Kachur, S. Patrick; Mårtensson, Andreas; Abbas, Ali K; Khatib, Rashid; Al-mafazy, Abdul-wahiyd; Ramsan, Mahdi; Rotllant, Guida; Gerstenmaier, Jan F; Molteni, Fabrizio; Abdulla, Salim; Montgomery, Scott M; Kaneko, Akira; Björkman, Anders

2007-01-01

Background The Roll Back Malaria strategy recommends a combination of interventions for malaria control. Zanzibar implemented artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for uncomplicated malaria in late 2003 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) from early 2006. ACT is provided free of charge to all malaria patients, while LLINs are distributed free to children under age 5 y (“under five”) and pregnant women. We investigated temporal trends in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and malaria-related health parameters following the implementation of these two malaria control interventions in Zanzibar. Methods and Findings Cross-sectional clinical and parasitological surveys in children under the age of 14 y were conducted in North A District in May 2003, 2005, and 2006. Survey data were analyzed in a logistic regression model and adjusted for complex sampling design and potential confounders. Records from all 13 public health facilities in North A District were analyzed for malaria-related outpatient visits and admissions. Mortality and demographic data were obtained from District Commissioner's Office. P. falciparum prevalence decreased in children under five between 2003 and 2006; using 2003 as the reference year, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were, for 2005, 0.55 (0.28–1.08), and for 2006, 0.03 (0.00–0.27); p for trend < 0.001. Between 2002 and 2005 crude under-five, infant (under age 1 y), and child (aged 1–4 y) mortality decreased by 52%, 33%, and 71%, respectively. Similarly, malaria-related admissions, blood transfusions, and malaria-attributed mortality decreased significantly by 77%, 67% and 75%, respectively, between 2002 and 2005 in children under five. Climatic conditions favorable for malaria transmission persisted throughout the observational period. Conclusions Following deployment of ACT in Zanzibar 2003, malaria-associated morbidity and mortality decreased dramatically within two years. Additional distribution of LLINs in early 2006 resulted in a 10-fold reduction of malaria parasite prevalence. The results indicate that the Millennium Development Goals of reducing mortality in children under five and alleviating the burden of malaria are achievable in tropical Africa with high coverage of combined malaria control interventions. PMID:17988171

Disparities in child mortality trends in two new states of India.

PubMed

Minnery, Mark; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Firth, Sonja; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Hodge, Andrew

2013-08-27

India has the world's highest total number of under-five deaths of any nation. While progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 has been documented at the state level, little information is available for greater disaggregation of child health markers within states. In 2000, new states were created within the country as a partial response to political pressures. State-level information on child health trends in the new states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand is scarce. To fill this gap, this article examines under-five and neonatal mortality across various equity markers within these two new states, pre-and post-split. Both direct and indirect estimation using pooled data from five available sources were undertaken. Inter-population disparities were evaluated by mortality data stratification of rural-urban location, ethnicity, wealth and districts. Both states experienced an overall reduction in under-five and neonatal mortality, however, this has stagnated post-2001 and various disparities persist. In cases where disparities have declined, such as between urban-rural populations and low- and high-income groups, this has been driven by modest declines within the disadvantaged groups (i.e. low-income rural households) and stagnation or worsening of outcomes within the advantaged groups. Indeed, rising trends in mortality are most prevalent in urban middle-income households. The results suggest that rural health improvements may have come at the expense of urban areas, where poor performance may be attributed to factors such as lack of access to quality private health facilities. In addition, the disparities may in part be associated with geographical access, traditional practices and district-level health resource allocation.

Trading Equality for Health? Evaluating the Trade-off and Institutional Hypotheses on Health Inequalities in the Global South.

PubMed

Sosnaud, Benjamin; Beckfield, Jason

2017-09-01

It has been suggested that as medicine advances and mortality declines, socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes will grow. Yet, most research on this topic uses data from affluent Western democracies, where mortality is declining in small increments. We argue that the Global South represents the ideal setting to study this issue in a context of rapid mortality decline. We evaluate two competing hypotheses: (1) there is a trade-off between population health and health inequality such that reductions in under-five mortality are linked to higher levels of social inequality in health; and (2) institutional interventions that improve under-five mortality, like the expansion of educational systems and public health expenditure, are associated with reductions in inequalities. We test these hypotheses using data on 1,369,050 births in 34 low-income countries in the Demographic and Health Surveys from 1995 to 2012. The results show little evidence of a health-for-equality trade-off and instead support the institutional hypothesis.

The causal effect of increased primary schooling on child mortality in Malawi: Universal primary education as a natural experiment.

PubMed

Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton

2016-11-01

The primary objective of this analysis is to investigate the causal effect of mother's schooling on under-five health - and the passageways through which schooling propagates - by exploiting the exogenous variability in schooling prompted by the 1994 universal primary schooling program in Malawi. This education policy, which saw the elimination of tuition fees across all primary schooling grades, creates an ideal setting for observing the causal influence of improved primary school enrollment on the under-five fatality rates of the subsequent generation. Our analysis uses data from three waves of the nationally representative Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2004/05, and 2010. To address the potential endogeneity of schooling, we employ the mother's age at implementation of the tuition-free primary school policy in 1994 as an instrumental variable for the prospect of finishing primary level instruction. The results suggest that spending one year in school translated to a 3.22 percentage point reduction in mortality for infants and a 6.48 percent reduction for children under age five years. For mothers younger than 19 years, mortality was reduced by 5.95 percentage points. These figures remained approximately the same even after adjusting for potential confounders. However, we failed to find any statistically meaningful effect of the mother's education on neonatal survival. The juvenile fatality estimates we find are weakly robust to several robustness checks. We also explored the potential mechanisms by which increased maternal schooling might help enhance child survival. The findings indicated that an added year of motherly learning considerably improves the prospect of prenatal care use, literacy levels, father's educational level, and alters fertility behavior. Our results suggest that increasing the primary schooling prospects for young women might help reduce under-five mortality in less-industrialized regions experiencing high under-five fatalities such as in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996–2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanping; Li, Xiaohong; Zhou, Maigeng; Luo, Shusheng; Liang, Juan; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M; Gao, Yanqiu; Wang, Linhong; He, Chunhua; Kang, Chuyun; Liu, Shiwei; Dai, Li; Schumacher, Austin E; Fraser, Maya S; Wolock, Timothy M; Pain, Amanda; Levitz, Carly E; Singh, Lavanya; Coggeshall, Megan; Lind, Margaret; Li, Yichong; Li, Qi; Deng, Kui; Mu, Yi; Deng, Changfei; Yi, Ling; Liu, Zheng; Ma, Xia; Li, Hongtian; Mu, Dezhi; Zhu, Jun; Murray, Christopher J L; Wang, Haidong

2017-01-01

Summary Background In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. Methods We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. Findings In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4·4%. Interpretation The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8·8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. Funding National “Twelfth Five-Year” Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People’s Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:26510780

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey.

PubMed

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-04-01

Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival. Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups'). Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey

PubMed Central

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India’s slow progress in improving childhood survival. Methods : Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002—08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states (‘Empowered Action Groups’). Results : Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Conclusions: Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. PMID:27063607

The impact of prenatal care quality on neonatal, infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: evidence from the demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton

2017-04-01

The impact of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study endeavoured to explore the effect of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality. The empirical analysis uses data from the three most recent waves of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the prospect of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by approximately 42.33, 30.86 and 28.65%, respectively. These findings remained roughly the same even after adjusting for potential mediating factors. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that women who receive information on possible complications arising during pregnancy are less liable to experience a neonatal death. Similarly, women who had blood pressure checks and tetanus immunizations were less likely to experience an infant or under-five death. We did not find any statistically meaningful impact on child mortality outcomes of blood and urine sample checks, iron tablet consumption, and the receipt of malarial tablets. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policymakers to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care to enhance the survival prospects of Zimbabwe's infants. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A review of coccidiosis in South American camelids

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Camelids (llama, alpaca, vicuñas, guanacos) are important for the economy of South America and Eimeria infections are important as cause of mortality in camelids. Of the five valid species of Eimeria in South American camelids, Eimeria macusaniensis, Eimeria lamae, Eimeria alpacae, Eimeria punoensis...

Disparities in child mortality trends in two new states of India

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background India has the world’s highest total number of under-five deaths of any nation. While progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 has been documented at the state level, little information is available for greater disaggregation of child health markers within states. In 2000, new states were created within the country as a partial response to political pressures. State-level information on child health trends in the new states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand is scarce. To fill this gap, this article examines under-five and neonatal mortality across various equity markers within these two new states, pre-and post-split. Methods Both direct and indirect estimation using pooled data from five available sources were undertaken. Inter-population disparities were evaluated by mortality data stratification of rural–urban location, ethnicity, wealth and districts. Results Both states experienced an overall reduction in under-five and neonatal mortality, however, this has stagnated post-2001 and various disparities persist. In cases where disparities have declined, such as between urban–rural populations and low- and high-income groups, this has been driven by modest declines within the disadvantaged groups (i.e. low-income rural households) and stagnation or worsening of outcomes within the advantaged groups. Indeed, rising trends in mortality are most prevalent in urban middle-income households. Conclusions The results suggest that rural health improvements may have come at the expense of urban areas, where poor performance may be attributed to factors such as lack of access to quality private health facilities. In addition, the disparities may in part be associated with geographical access, traditional practices and district-level health resource allocation. PMID:23978236

Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

2017-08-10

Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

Early Therapy Intensity Level (TIL) Predicts Mortality in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Ziai, Wendy C; Siddiqui, Aazim A; Ullman, Natalie; Herrick, Daniel B; Yenokyan, Gayane; McBee, Nichol; Lane, Karen; Hanley, Daniel F

2015-10-01

Outcome from spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) may depend on patient-care variability. We developed as ICH-specific therapy intensity level (TIL) metric using evidence-based elements in a high severity sICH cohort. This is a cohort study of 170 patients with sICH and any intraventricular hemorrhage treated in 2 academic neuroICUs. Pre-defined quality indicators were identified based on current guidelines, scientific evidence, and likelihood of care documentation in first 72 h of hospital admission. We assessed performance on each indicator and association with discharge mortality. Significant indicators were aggregated to develop a TIL score. The predictive validity of the best fit TIL score was tested with threefold cross-validation of multivariate logistic regression models of in-hospital survival and good outcome (modified Rankin score 0-3). Median ICH score was 3; discharge mortality was 51.2%. Five/19 tested variables were significantly associated with lower discharge mortality: no DNR/withdrawal of treatment within 24 h of admission, target glucose within 4 h of high glucose, no recurrent hyperpyrexia, clinical reversal of herniation/intracranial pressure >20 mmHg within 60 min of detection, and reversal of INR (<1.4) within 2 h of first elevation. One point was given for each or if not applicable. Median TIL score was significantly higher in survivors versus non-survivors (5[1] vs. 3[1]; P < 0.001). A 4-point aggregated TIL score was most predictive of discharge survival (area under receiving operating characteristic curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90) and good outcome (AUC 0.84) and was an independent predictor of both (survival: OR 7.10; 95% CI 3.57-14.11; P < 0.001; good outcome: OR 3.10; 95% CI 1.06-8.79; P < 0.001). A simplified TIL score using evidenced-based patient-care parameters within first 3 days of admission after sICH was significantly associated with early mortality and good outcome. The next step is prospective validation of the simplified TIL score in a large clinical trial.

State of newborn health in India.

PubMed

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-12-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural-urban, poor-rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality.

State of newborn health in India

PubMed Central

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-01-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural–urban, poor–rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality. PMID:27924104

Environmental Predictors of US County Mortality Patterns on a National Basis.

PubMed

Chan, Melissa P L; Weinhold, Robert S; Thomas, Reuben; Gohlke, Julia M; Portier, Christopher J

2015-01-01

A growing body of evidence has found that mortality rates are positively correlated with social inequalities, air pollution, elevated ambient temperature, availability of medical care and other factors. This study develops a model to predict the mortality rates for different diseases by county across the US. The model is applied to predict changes in mortality caused by changing environmental factors. A total of 3,110 counties in the US, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, were studied. A subset of 519 counties from the 3,110 counties was chosen by using systematic random sampling and these samples were used to validate the model. Step-wise and linear regression analyses were used to estimate the ability of environmental pollutants, socio-economic factors and other factors to explain variations in county-specific mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), all causes combined and lifespan across five population density groups. The estimated models fit adequately for all mortality outcomes for all population density groups and, adequately predicted risks for the 519 validation counties. This study suggests that, at local county levels, average ozone (0.07 ppm) is the most important environmental predictor of mortality. The analysis also illustrates the complex inter-relationships of multiple factors that influence mortality and lifespan, and suggests the need for a better understanding of the pathways through which these factors, mortality, and lifespan are related at the community level.

Environmental Predictors of US County Mortality Patterns on a National Basis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Reuben; Gohlke, Julia M.; Portier, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

A growing body of evidence has found that mortality rates are positively correlated with social inequalities, air pollution, elevated ambient temperature, availability of medical care and other factors. This study develops a model to predict the mortality rates for different diseases by county across the US. The model is applied to predict changes in mortality caused by changing environmental factors. A total of 3,110 counties in the US, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, were studied. A subset of 519 counties from the 3,110 counties was chosen by using systematic random sampling and these samples were used to validate the model. Step-wise and linear regression analyses were used to estimate the ability of environmental pollutants, socio-economic factors and other factors to explain variations in county-specific mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), all causes combined and lifespan across five population density groups. The estimated models fit adequately for all mortality outcomes for all population density groups and, adequately predicted risks for the 519 validation counties. This study suggests that, at local county levels, average ozone (0.07 ppm) is the most important environmental predictor of mortality. The analysis also illustrates the complex inter-relationships of multiple factors that influence mortality and lifespan, and suggests the need for a better understanding of the pathways through which these factors, mortality, and lifespan are related at the community level. PMID:26629706

Newborn care in Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic and the Philippines: a comprehensive needs assessment.

PubMed

Duysburgh, Els; Kerstens, Birgit; Diaz, Melissa; Fardhdiani, Vini; Reyes, Katherine Ann V; Phommachanh, Khamphong; Temmerman, Marleen; Rodriques, Basil; Zaka, Nabila

2014-02-15

Between 1990 and 2011, global neonatal mortality decline was slower than that of under-five mortality. As a result, the proportion of under-five deaths due to neonatal mortality increased. This increase is primarily a consequence of decreasing post-neonatal and child under-five mortality as a result of the typical focus of child survival programmes of the past two decades on diseases affecting children over four weeks of age. Newborns are lagging behind in improved child health outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive, equity-focussed newborn care assessment and to explore options to improve newborn survival in Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and the Philippines. We assessed newborn health policies, services and care in the three countries through document review, interviews and health facility visits. Findings were triangulated to describe newborns' health status, the health policy and the health system context for newborn care and the equity situation regarding newborn survival. (1) In the three countries, decline of neonatal mortality is lagging behind compared to that of under-five mortality. (2) Comprehensive newborn policies in line with international standards exist, although implementation remains poor. An important factor hampering implementation is decentralisation of the health sector, which created confusion regarding roles and responsibilities. Management capacity and skills at decentralised level were often found to be limited. (3) Quality of newborn care provided at primary healthcare and referral level is generally substandard. Limited knowledge and skills among providers of newborn care are contributing to poor quality of care. (4) Socio-economic and geographic inequities in newborn care are considerable. Similar important challenges for newborn care have been identified in Indonesia, Lao PDR and the Philippines. There is an urgent need to address weak leadership and governance regarding newborn care, quality of newborn care provided and inequities in newborn care. Child survival programmes focussed on children over four weeks of age have shown to have positive outcomes. Similar efforts as those used in these programmes should be considered in newborn care.

Newborn care in Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Philippines: a comprehensive needs assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Between 1990 and 2011, global neonatal mortality decline was slower than that of under-five mortality. As a result, the proportion of under-five deaths due to neonatal mortality increased. This increase is primarily a consequence of decreasing post-neonatal and child under-five mortality as a result of the typical focus of child survival programmes of the past two decades on diseases affecting children over four weeks of age. Newborns are lagging behind in improved child health outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive, equity-focussed newborn care assessment and to explore options to improve newborn survival in Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) and the Philippines. Methods We assessed newborn health policies, services and care in the three countries through document review, interviews and health facility visits. Findings were triangulated to describe newborns’ health status, the health policy and the health system context for newborn care and the equity situation regarding newborn survival. Results Main findings: (1) In the three countries, decline of neonatal mortality is lagging behind compared to that of under-five mortality. (2) Comprehensive newborn policies in line with international standards exist, although implementation remains poor. An important factor hampering implementation is decentralisation of the health sector, which created confusion regarding roles and responsibilities. Management capacity and skills at decentralised level were often found to be limited. (3) Quality of newborn care provided at primary healthcare and referral level is generally substandard. Limited knowledge and skills among providers of newborn care are contributing to poor quality of care. (4) Socio-economic and geographic inequities in newborn care are considerable. Conclusions Similar important challenges for newborn care have been identified in Indonesia, Lao PDR and the Philippines. There is an urgent need to address weak leadership and governance regarding newborn care, quality of newborn care provided and inequities in newborn care. Child survival programmes focussed on children over four weeks of age have shown to have positive outcomes. Similar efforts as those used in these programmes should be considered in newborn care. PMID:24528519

Disparities in Under-Five Child Injury Mortality between Developing and Developed Countries: 1990-2013.

PubMed

Huang, Yun; Wu, Yue; Schwebel, David C; Zhou, Liang; Hu, Guoqing

2016-07-07

Using estimates from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we update evidence on disparities in under-five child injury mortality between developing and developed countries from 1990 to 2013. Mortality rates were accessed through the online visualization tool by the GBD study 2013 group. We calculated percent change in child injury mortality rates between 1990 and 2013. Data analysis was conducted separately for <1 year and 1-4 years to specify age differences in rate changes. Between 1990 and 2013, over 3-fold mortality gaps were observed between developing countries and developed countries for both age groups in the study time period. Similar decreases in injury rates were observed for developed and developing countries (<1 year: -50% vs. -50% respectively; 1-4 years: -56% vs. -58%). Differences in injury mortality changes during 1990-2013 between developing and developed nations varied with injury cause. There were greater reductions in mortality from transport injury, falls, poisoning, adverse effects of medical treatment, exposure to forces of nature, and collective violence and legal intervention in developed countries, whereas there were larger decreases in mortality from drowning, exposure to mechanical forces, and animal contact in developing countries. Country-specific analysis showed large variations across countries for both injury mortality and changes in injury mortality between 1990 and 2013. Sustained higher child injury mortality during 1990-2013 for developing countries merits the attention of the global injury prevention community. Countries that have high injury mortality can benefit from the success of other countries.

Path to impact: A report from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation convening on maternal immunization in resource-limited settings; Berlin - January 29-30, 2015.

PubMed

Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Abramson, Jon; Mason, Elizabeth; Rees, Helen; Schwalbe, Nina; Bergquist, Sharon; Klugman, Keith P

2015-11-25

Global initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals have led to major improvements in the health of women and children, and significant reductions in childhood mortality. Worldwide, maternal mortality has decreased by 45% and under-five mortality has fallen by over 50% over the past two decades [1]. However, improvements have not been achieved evenly across all ages; since 1990, under-five mortality has declined by ∼5% annually, but the average decrease in neonatal mortality is only ∼3% per year. Against this background, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) convened a meeting in Berlin on January 29-30, 2015 of global health stakeholders, representing funders, academia, regulatory agencies, non-governmental organizations, vaccine manufacturers, and Ministries of Health from Africa and Asia. The topic of discussion was the potential of maternal immunization (MI) to achieve further improvements in under-five morbidity and mortality rates in children, and particularly neonates and young infants, through targeting infectious diseases that are not preventable by other interventions in these age groups. The meeting focused on effective and appropriately priced MI vaccines against influenza, pertussis, and tetanus, as well as against respiratory syncytial virus, and the group B Streptococcus, for which no licensed vaccines currently exist. The primary goals of the BMGF 2015 convening were to bring together the global stakeholders in vaccine development, policy and delivery together with the Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) community, to get recognition that MI is a strategy shared between these groups and so encourage increased collaboration, and obtain alignment on the next steps toward achieving a significant health impact through implementation of a MI program. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Feasibility and pilot study of the effects of microfinance on mortality and nutrition in children under five amongst the very poor in India: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ojha, Shalini; Szatkowski, Lisa; Sinha, Ranjeet; Yaron, Gil; Fogarty, Andrew; Allen, Stephen; Choudhary, Sunil; Smyth, Alan R

2014-07-23

The United Nations Millennium Development Goals include targets for the health of children under five years old. Poor health is linked to poverty and microfinance initiatives are economic interventions that may improve health by breaking the cycle of poverty. However, there is a lack of reliable evidence to support this. In addition, microfinance schemes may have adverse effects on health, for example due to increased indebtedness. Rojiroti UK and the Centre for Promoting Sustainable Livelihood run an innovative microfinance scheme that provides microcredit via women's self-help groups (SHGs). This pilot study, conducted in rural Bihar (India), will establish whether it is feasible to collect anthropometric and mortality data on children under five years old and to conduct a limited cluster randomized trial of the Rojiroti intervention. We have designed a cluster randomized trial in which participating tolas (small communities within villages) will be randomized to either receive early (SHGs and microfinance at baseline) or late intervention (SHGs and microfinance after 18 months). Using predesigned questionnaires, demographic, and mortality data for the last year and information about participating mothers and their children will be collected and the weight, height, and mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of children will be measured at baseline and at 18 months. The late intervention group will establish SHGs and microfinance support at this point and data collection will be repeated at 36 months.The primary outcome measure will be the mean weight for height z-score of children under five years old in the early and late intervention tolas at 18 months. Secondary outcome measures will be the mortality rate, mean weight for age, height for age, prevalence of underweight, stunting, and wasting among children under five years of age. Despite economic progress, marked inequalities in child health persist in India and Bihar is one of the worst affected states. There is a need to evaluate programs that may alleviate poverty and improve health. This study will help to inform the design of a definitive trial to determine if the Rojiroti scheme can improve the nutrition and survival of children under five years of age in deprived rural communities. Clinicaltrials.gov (study ID: NCT01845545). Registered on 24 April 2013.

A Severe Sepsis Mortality Prediction Model and Score for Use with Administrative Data

PubMed Central

Ford, Dee W.; Goodwin, Andrew J.; Simpson, Annie N.; Johnson, Emily; Nadig, Nandita; Simpson, Kit N.

2016-01-01

Objective Administrative data is used for research, quality improvement, and health policy in severe sepsis. However, there is not a sepsis-specific tool applicable to administrative data with which to adjust for illness severity. Our objective was to develop, internally validate, and externally validate a severe sepsis mortality prediction model and associated mortality prediction score. Design Retrospective cohort study using 2012 administrative data from five US states. Three cohorts of patients with severe sepsis were created: 1) ICD-9-CM codes for severe sepsis/septic shock, 2) ‘Martin’ approach, and 3) ‘Angus’ approach. The model was developed and internally validated in ICD-9-CM cohort and externally validated in other cohorts. Integer point values for each predictor variable were generated to create a sepsis severity score. Setting Acute care, non-federal hospitals in NY, MD, FL, MI, and WA Subjects Patients in one of three severe sepsis cohorts: 1) explicitly coded (n=108,448), 2) Martin cohort (n=139,094), and 3) Angus cohort (n=523,637) Interventions None Measurements and Main Results Maximum likelihood estimation logistic regression to develop a predictive model for in-hospital mortality. Model calibration and discrimination assessed via Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (GOF) and C-statistics respectively. Primary cohort subset into risk deciles and observed versus predicted mortality plotted. GOF demonstrated p>0.05 for each cohort demonstrating sound calibration. C-statistic ranged from low of 0.709 (sepsis severity score) to high of 0.838 (Angus cohort) suggesting good to excellent model discrimination. Comparison of observed versus expected mortality was robust although accuracy decreased in highest risk decile. Conclusions Our sepsis severity model and score is a tool that provides reliable risk adjustment for administrative data. PMID:26496452

Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis.

PubMed

Chen, Mengshi; Lu, Xiulan; Hu, Li; Liu, Pingping; Zhao, Wenjiao; Yan, Haipeng; Tang, Liang; Zhu, Yimin; Xiao, Zhenghui; Chen, Lizhang; Tan, Hongzhuan

2017-05-01

Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial.We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities.According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively.The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients.

Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis

PubMed Central

Chen, Mengshi; Lu, Xiulan; Hu, Li; Liu, Pingping; Zhao, Wenjiao; Yan, Haipeng; Tang, Liang; Zhu, Yimin; Xiao, Zhenghui; Chen, Lizhang; Tan, Hongzhuan

2017-01-01

Abstract Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial. We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities. According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively. The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients. PMID:28514310

Does intelligence account for the link between maternal literacy and child survival?

PubMed

Sandiford, P; Cassel, J; Sanchez, G; Coldham, C

1997-10-01

The strong and consistent correlation between maternal education and child health is now well known, and numerous studies have shown that wealth and income cannot explain the link. Policy-makers have therefore assumed that the relationship is causal and explicitly advocate schooling as a child health intervention. However, there are other factors which could account for the apparent effect of maternal education on child morbidity and mortality, one of which is intelligence. This paper examines the effect of maternal intelligence on child health and looks at the degree to which it can explain the literacy associations with child survival and risk of malnutrition. The data are from a retrospective cohort study of 1294 mothers and their 7475 offspring, of whom 454 were women who had learned to read and write as adults in Nicaragua's literacy programme, 457 were illiterate, and 383 had become literate as young girls attending school. The women's intelligence was tested using Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices. Acquisition of literacy was strongly related to intelligence. Statistically significant associations with maternal literacy were found for under five mortality, infant mortality, and the risk of low mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) for age, before and after controlling for a wide range of socio-economic factors. Under five, child (one to four years), infant and post-neonatal mortality plus the risk of low height for age were significantly correlated with intelligence, but only with infant and under mortality rates did the association remain significant after controlling for socio-economic factors. A significant interaction between intelligence and literacy for under five mortality was due to literacy having a strong effect in the women of low intelligence, and a negligible effect among those of high intelligence. This study provides evidence that intelligence is an important determinant of child health among the illiterate, and that education may have the greatest impact on child health for mothers of relatively low intelligence.

Development and validation of immune dysfunction score to predict 28-day mortality of sepsis patients

PubMed Central

Fang, Wen-Feng; Douglas, Ivor S.; Chen, Yu-Mu; Lin, Chiung-Yu; Kao, Hsu-Ching; Fang, Ying-Tang; Huang, Chi-Han; Chang, Ya-Ting; Huang, Kuo-Tung; Wang, Yi-His; Wang, Chin-Chou

2017-01-01

Background Sepsis-induced immune dysfunction ranging from cytokines storm to immunoparalysis impacts outcomes. Monitoring immune dysfunction enables better risk stratification and mortality prediction and is mandatory before widely application of immunoadjuvant therapies. We aimed to develop and validate a scoring system according to patients’ immune dysfunction status for 28-day mortality prediction. Methods A prospective observational study from a cohort of adult sepsis patients admitted to ICU between August 2013 and June 2016 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan. We evaluated immune dysfunction status through measurement of baseline plasma Cytokine levels, Monocyte human leukocyte-DR expression by flow cytometry, and stimulated immune response using post LPS stimulated cytokine elevation ratio. An immune dysfunction score was created for 28-day mortality prediction and was validated. Results A total of 151 patients were enrolled. Data of the first consecutive 106 septic patients comprised the training cohort, and of other 45 patients comprised the validation cohort. Among the 106 patients, 21 died and 85 were still alive on day 28 after ICU admission. (mortality rate, 19.8%). Independent predictive factors revealed via multivariate logistic regression analysis included segmented neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, interleukin-10, and monocyte human leukocyte antigen-antigen D–related levels, all of which were selected to construct the score, which predicted 28-day mortality with area under the curve of 0.853 and 0.789 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions The immune dysfunction scoring system developed here included plasma granulocyte-colony stimulating factor level, interleukin-10 level, serum segmented neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio, and monocyte human leukocyte antigen-antigen D–related expression appears valid and reproducible for predicting 28-day mortality. PMID:29073262

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J D; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. The last three Demographic and Health Surveys - conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 - enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality.

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Results Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality. PMID:26562142

An ecological quantification of the relationships between water, sanitation and infant, child, and maternal mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Water and sanitation access are known to be related to newborn, child, and maternal health. Our study attempts to quantify these relationships globally using country-level data: How much does improving access to water and sanitation influence infant, child, and maternal mortality? Methods Data for 193 countries were abstracted from global databases (World Bank, WHO, and UNICEF). Linear regression was used for the outcomes of under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate (IMR). These results are presented as events per 1000 live births. Ordinal logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios for the outcome of maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Results Under-five mortality rate decreased by 1.17 (95%CI 1.08-1.26) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, for every quartile increase in population water access after adjustments for confounders. There was a similar relationship between quartile increase of sanitation access and under-five mortality rate, with a decrease of 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. Improved water access was also related to IMR, with the IMR decreasing by 1.14 (95%CI 1.05-1.23) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, with increasing quartile of access to improved water source. The significance of this relationship was retained with quartile improvement in sanitation access, where the decrease in IMR was 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. The estimated odds ratio that increased quartile of water access was significantly associated with increased quartile of MMR was 0.58 (95%CI 0.39-0.86), p = 0.008. The corresponding odds ratio for sanitation was 0.52 (95%CI 0.32-0.85), p = 0.009, both suggesting that better water and sanitation were associated with decreased MMR. Conclusions Our analyses suggest that access to water and sanitation independently contribute to child and maternal mortality outcomes. If the world is to seriously address the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child and maternal mortality, then improved water and sanitation accesses are key strategies. PMID:22280473

Development of a Breast Cancer Awareness Scale for Thai Women: Moving towards a Validated Measure.

PubMed

Rakkapao, Nitchamon; Promthet, Supannee; Moore, Malcolm A; Hurst, Cameron P

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is a major health problem among women around the world. Recent developments in screening and treatment have greatly improved the prognosis of patients with breast cancer in developed countries. However, in developing countries breast cancer mortality remains high.Breast cancer awareness is a first and important step in reducing breast cancer mortality. The development of a validated instrument to measure breast cancer awareness is crucial for the understanding and implementation of suitable health education programs to facilitate early deletion and minimize mortality. The objective of this study was to develop an instrument for the assessment of breast cancer awareness in Thai women. This methodological study was conducted in two stages: (1) literature searches and semi-structured interviews were conducted to generate items of the breast cancer awareness scale (B-CAS) which were subsequently examined for content and face validity, and (2) an exploration of the factor structure of the resulting instrument and an examination of its reliability. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire in Thai women aged 20-64 in August, 2015. A total of 219 women (response rate 97.4 %) participated in this validation study. The B-CAS contains five domains with 53 items on breast cancer awareness: 1) knowledge of risk factors, 2) knowledge of signs and symptoms, 3) attitude to breast cancer prevention, 4) barriers of breast screening, and 5) health behavior related to breast cancer awareness. Items with a content validity index <0.80 were excluded, and factor structure for the remaining items reflected the hypothesized five factor model. The scales based on all retained items was shown to have strongly internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's α=0.86). The B-CAS provides good psychometric properties to assess breast cancer awareness in women. It can be used to examine breast cancer awareness in Thai women and it could lead to the development and evaluation of suitable educational interventions for raising breast cancer awareness. Future research should focus on further validating the B-CAS including an assessment of construct and criterion-based validity.

Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

PubMed Central

Echevarria, C; Steer, J; Heslop-Marshall, K; Stenton, SC; Hickey, PM; Hughes, R; Wijesinghe, M; Harrison, RN; Steen, N; Simpson, AJ; Gibson, GJ; Bourke, SC

2016-01-01

Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0–1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3–6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214. PMID:26769015

Development of a five-year mortality model in systemic sclerosis patients by different analytical approaches.

PubMed

Beretta, Lorenzo; Santaniello, Alessandro; Cappiello, Francesca; Chawla, Nitesh V; Vonk, Madelon C; Carreira, Patricia E; Allanore, Yannick; Popa-Diaconu, D A; Cossu, Marta; Bertolotti, Francesca; Ferraccioli, Gianfranco; Mazzone, Antonino; Scorza, Raffaella

2010-01-01

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a multiorgan disease with high mortality rates. Several clinical features have been associated with poor survival in different populations of SSc patients, but no clear and reproducible prognostic model to assess individual survival prediction in scleroderma patients has ever been developed. We used Cox regression and three data mining-based classifiers (Naïve Bayes Classifier [NBC], Random Forests [RND-F] and logistic regression [Log-Reg]) to develop a robust and reproducible 5-year prognostic model. All the models were built and internally validated by means of 5-fold cross-validation on a population of 558 Italian SSc patients. Their predictive ability and capability of generalisation was then tested on an independent population of 356 patients recruited from 5 external centres and finally compared to the predictions made by two SSc domain experts on the same population. The NBC outperformed the Cox-based classifier and the other data mining algorithms after internal cross-validation (area under receiving operator characteristic curve, AUROC: NBC=0.759; RND-F=0.736; Log-Reg=0.754 and Cox= 0.724). The NBC had also a remarkable and better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (e.g. Balanced accuracy, BA) than the Cox-based classifier, when tested on an independent population of SSc patients (BA: NBC=0.769, Cox=0.622). The NBC was also superior to domain experts in predicting 5-year survival in this population (AUROC=0.829 vs. AUROC=0.788 and BA=0.769 vs. BA=0.67). We provide a model to make consistent 5-year prognostic predictions in SSc patients. Its internal validity, as well as capability of generalisation and reduced uncertainty compared to human experts support its use at bedside. Available at: http://www.nd.edu/~nchawla/survival.xls.

A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

2009-01-01

Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

Effect of Investment in Malaria Control on Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2002–2008

PubMed Central

Akachi, Yoko; Atun, Rifat

2011-01-01

Background Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined. Methods and Findings We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births. Conclusions Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources. PMID:21738633

Mortality after Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Causality and Validation of a Prediction Model.

PubMed

Abulhasan, Yasser B; Alabdulraheem, Najayeb; Simoneau, Gabrielle; Angle, Mark R; Teitelbaum, Jeanne

2018-04-01

To evaluate primary causes of death after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and externally validate the HAIR score, a prognostication tool, in a single academic institution. We reviewed all patients with SAH admitted to our neuro-intensive care unit between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. The HAIR score predictors were Hunt and Hess grade at treatment decision, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding within 24 hours. Validation of the HAIR score was characterized with the receiver operating curve, the area under the curve, and a calibration plot. Among 434 patients with SAH, in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. Of the 61 mortalities, 54 (88.5%) had a neurologic cause of death or withdrawal of care and 7 (11.5%) had cardiac death. Median time from SAH to death was 6 days. The main causes of death were effect of the initial hemorrhage (26.2%), rebleeding (23%) and refractory cerebral edema (19.7%). Factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis were age, Hunt and Hess grade, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Maximum lumen size was also a significant risk factor after aneurysmal SAH. The HAIR score had a satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The in-hospital mortality is lower than in previous reports, attesting to the continuing improvement of our institutional SAH care. The major causes are the same as in previous reports. Despite a different therapeutic protocol, the HAIR score showed good discrimination and could be a useful tool for predicting mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study.

PubMed

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-09-18

To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020. An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ 2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model. Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Cao, Han; Wang, Jing; Li, Yichen; Li, Dongyang; Guo, Jin; Hu, Yifei; Meng, Kai; He, Dian; Liu, Bin; Liu, Zheng; Qi, Han; Zhang, Ling

2017-01-01

Objectives To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016–2020. Methods An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software. Results Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1–4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016–2020, based on the predictive model. Conclusion Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups. PMID:28928178

Levels of Urbanization and Parental Education in Relation to the Mortality Risk of Young Children.

PubMed

Fang, Hsin-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Ling; Chen, Chiu-Ying; Jia, Chun-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Hou, Wen-Hsuan

2015-07-08

The establishment of the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan in 1995 effectively removed the financial barrier to access health care services of Taiwanese people. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the independent and joint effects of parental education and area urbanization on the mortality risk among children under the universal health insurance coverage in Taiwan since 1995. We linked 1,501,620 births from 1996 to 2000 to the Taiwan Death Registry to estimate the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates, according to the levels of parental education and urbanization of residential areas. We used a logistic regression model that considers data clustering to estimate the independent and joint effects. Lower levels of parental education and area urbanization exerted an independent effect of mortality on young children, with a stronger magnitude noted for areas with lower levels of urbanization. Children whose parents had lower levels of education and who were born in areas with lower levels of urbanization experienced the highest risk for neonatal (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.46-1.76), infant (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.48-1.70), and under-five (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.61-1.82) mortality. Even with universal health insurance coverage, lower levels of area urbanization and parental education still exerted independent and joint effects on mortality in young children. This finding implies the inadequate accessibility to health care resources for children from socially disadvantaged families and less urbanized areas.

Religious affiliation and under-five mortality in Mozambique.

PubMed

Cau, Boaventura M; Sevoyan, Arusyak; Agadjanian, Victor

2013-05-01

The influence of religion on health remains a subject of considerable debate both in developed and developing settings. This study examines the connection between the religious affiliation of the mother and under-five mortality in Mozambique. It uses unique retrospective survey data collected in a predominantly Christian area in Mozambique to compare under-five mortality between children of women affiliated to organized religion and children of non-affiliated women. It finds that mother's affiliation to any religious organization, as compared with non-affiliation, has a significant positive effect on child survival net of education and other socio-demographic factors. When the effects of affiliation to specific denominational groups are examined, only affiliation to the Catholic or mainstream Protestant churches and affiliation to Apostolic churches are significantly associated with improved child survival. It is argued that the advantages of these groups may be achieved through different mechanisms: the favourable effect on child survival of having mothers affiliated to the Catholic or mainstream Protestant churches is probably due to these churches' stronger connections to the health sector, while the beneficial effect of having an Apostolic mother is probably related to strong social ties and mutual support in Apostolic congregations. The findings thus shed light on multiple pathways through which organized religion can affect child health and survival in sub-Saharan Africa and similar developing settings.

Prediction of five-year all-cause mortality in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus - A population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2017-06-01

This study aimed to develop and validate an all-cause mortality risk prediction model for Chinese primary care patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) in Hong Kong. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 132,462 Chinese patients who had received public primary care services during 2010. Each gender sample was randomly split on a 2:1 basis into derivation and validation cohorts and was followed-up for a median period of 5years. Gender-specific mortality risk prediction models showing the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox proportional hazards regression with forward stepwise approach. Developed models were compared with pre-existing models by Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plot using validation cohort. Common predictors of increased mortality risk in both genders included: age; smoking habit; diabetes duration; use of anti-hypertensive agents, insulin and lipid-lowering drugs; body mass index; hemoglobin A1c; systolic blood pressure(BP); total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio; urine albumin to creatinine ratio(urine ACR); and estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR). Prediction models showed better discrimination with Harrell"'s C-statistics of 0.768(males) and 0.782(females) and calibration power from the plots than previously established models. Our newly developed gender-specific models provide a more accurate predicted 5-year mortality risk for Chinese diabetic patients than other established models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986-2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality.

Improving access to child health services at the community level in Zambia: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000–2013

PubMed Central

Kipp, Aaron M; Maimbolwa, Margaret; Brault, Marie A; Kalesha-Masumbu, Penelope; Katepa-Bwalya, Mary; Habimana, Phanuel; Vermund, Sten H; Mwinga, Kasonde; Haley, Connie A

2017-01-01

Abstract Reductions in under-five mortality in Africa have not been sufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Nevertheless, 12 African countries have met MDG#4. We undertook a four country study to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015, seeking to better understand variability in success across countries. The current analysis presents indicator, national document, and qualitative data from key informants and community women describing the factors that have enabled Zambia to successfully reduce under-five mortality over the last 15 years and achieve MDG#4. Results identified a Zambian national commitment to ongoing reform of national health strategic plans and efforts to ensure universal access to effective maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions, creating an environment that has promoted child health. Zambia has also focused on bringing health services as close to the family as possible through specific community health strategies. This includes actively involving community health workers to provide health education, basic MNCH services, and linking women to health facilities, while supplementing community and health facility work with twice-yearly Child Health Weeks. External partners have contributed greatly to Zambia’s MNCH services, and their relationships with the government are generally positive. As government funding increases to sustain MNCH services, national health strategies/plans are being used to specify how partners can fill gaps in resources. Zambia’s continuing MNCH challenges include basic transportation, access-to-care, workforce shortages, and financing limitations. We highlight policies, programs, and implementation that facilitated reductions in under-five mortality in Zambia. These findings may inform how other countries in the African Region can increase progress in child survival in the post-MDG period. PMID:28453711

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

PubMed

Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends (1977-2007) and ethnic inequity in child mortality in rural villages of southern Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Fazzio, Ila; Mann, Vera; Boone, Peter

2011-09-02

Guinea Bissau is one of the poorest countries in the world, with one of the highest under-5 mortality rate. Despite its importance for policy planning, data on child mortality are often not available or of poor quality in low-income countries like Guinea Bissau. Our aim in this study was to use the baseline survey to estimate child mortality in rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau for a 30 years period prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention. We aimed to investigate temporal trends with emphasis on historical events and the effect of ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. A baseline survey was conducted prior to a planned cluster randomised intervention to estimate child mortality in 241 rural villages in southern Guinea Bissau between 1977 and 2007. Crude child mortality rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method from birth history of 7854 women. Cox regression models were used to investigate the effects of birth periods with emphasis on historical events, ethnicity, polygyny and distance to the health centre on child mortality. High levels of child mortality were found at all ages under five with a significant reduction in child mortality over the time periods of birth except for 1997-2001. That period comprises the 1998/99 civil war interval, when child mortality was 1.5% higher than in the previous period. Children of Balanta ethnic group had higher hazard of dying under five years of age than children from other groups until 2001. Between 2002 and 2007, Fula children showed the highest mortality. Increasing walking distance to the nearest health centre increased the hazard, though not substantially, and polygyny had a negligible and statistically not significant effect on the hazard. Child mortality is strongly associated with ethnicity and it should be considered in health policy planning. Child mortality, though considerably decreased during the past 30 years, remains high in rural Guinea Bissau. Temporal trends also suggest that civil wars have detrimental effects on child mortality. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52433336.

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-04-10

Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. We searched PubMed for the mesh terms "perforated peptic ulcer", "scoring systems", "risk factors", "outcome prediction", "mortality", "morbidity" and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use.

Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

2014-01-01

The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

Role of Antidiarrhoeal Drugs as Adjunctive Therapies for Acute Diarrhoea in Children

PubMed Central

Faure, Christophe

2013-01-01

Acute diarrhoea is a leading cause of child mortality in developing countries. Principal pathogens include Escherichia coli, rotaviruses, and noroviruses. 90% of diarrhoeal deaths are attributable to inadequate sanitation. Acute diarrhoea is the second leading cause of overall childhood mortality and accounts for 18% of deaths among children under five. In 2004 an estimated 1.5 million children died from diarrhoea, with 80% of deaths occurring before the age of two. Treatment goals are to prevent dehydration and nutritional damage and to reduce duration and severity of diarrhoeal episodes. The recommended therapeutic regimen is to provide oral rehydration solutions (ORS) and to continue feeding. Although ORS effectively mitigates dehydration, it has no effect on the duration, severity, or frequency of diarrhoeal episodes. Adjuvant therapy with micronutrients, probiotics, or antidiarrhoeal agents may thus be useful. The WHO recommends the use of zinc tablets in association with ORS. The ESPGHAN/ESPID treatment guidelines consider the use of racecadotril, diosmectite, or probiotics as possible adjunctive therapy to ORS. Only racecadotril and diosmectite reduce stool output, but no treatment has yet been shown to reduce hospitalisation rate or mortality. Appropriate management with validated treatments may help reduce the health and economic burden of acute diarrhoea in children worldwide. PMID:23533446

Analysis of the Survival of Children Under Five in Indonesia and Associated Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Islami Warrohmah, Annisa; Maniar Berliana, Sarni; Nursalam, Nursalam; Efendi, Ferry; Haryanto, Joni; Has, Eka Misbahatul M.; Ulfiana, Elida; Dwi Wahyuni, Sylvia

2018-02-01

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) remains a challenge for developing nations, including Indonesia. This study aims to assess the key factors associated with mortality of Indonesian infants using survival analysis. Data taken from 14,727 live-born infants (2007-2012) was examined from the nationally representative Indonesian Demographic Health Survey. The Weibull hazard model was performed to analyse the socioeconomic status and related determinants of infant mortality. The findings indicated that mother factors (education, working status, autonomy, economic status, maternal age at birth, birth interval, type of births, complications, history of previous mortality, breastfeeding, antenatal care and place of delivery); infant factors (birth size); residence; and environmental conditions were associated with the childhood mortality. Rural or urban residence was an important determining factor of infant mortality. For example, considering the factor of a mother’s education, rural educated mothers had a significant association with the survival of their infants. In contrast, there was no significant association between urban educated mothers and their infants’ mortality. The results showed obvious contextual differences which determine the childhood mortality. Socio-demographic and economic factors remain critical in determining the death of infants. This study provides evidence for designing targeted interventions, as well as suggesting specific needs based on the population’s place of residence, in the issue of U5MR. Further interventions should also consider other identified variables while developing programmes to address infant’s needs.

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana.

PubMed

Mupara, Lucia U; Lubbe, Johanna C

2016-01-01

Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana.

Purchase of drinking water is associated with increased child morbidity and mortality among urban slum-dwelling families in Indonesia.

PubMed

Semba, Richard D; de Pee, Saskia; Kraemer, Klaus; Sun, Kai; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew; Moench-Pfanner, Regina; Sari, Mayang; Akhter, Nasima; Bloem, Martin W

2009-07-01

In developing countries, poor families in urban slums often do not receive municipal services including water. The objectives of our study were to characterize families who purchased drinking water and to examine the relation between purchasing drinking water and child morbidity and mortality in urban slums of Indonesia, using data collected between 1999 and 2003. Of 143,126 families, 46.8% purchased inexpensive drinking water from street vendors, 47.4% did not purchase water, i.e., had running or spring/well water within household, and 5.8% purchased more expensive water in the previous 7 days. Families that purchased inexpensive drinking water had less educated parents, a more crowded household, a father who smoked, and lower socioeconomic level compared with the other families. Among children of families that purchased inexpensive drinking water, did not purchase drinking water, or purchased more expensive water, the prevalence was, respectively, for diarrhea in last 7 days (11.2%, 8.1%, 7.7%), underweight (28.9%, 24.1%, 24.1%), stunting (35.6%, 30.5%, 30.5%), wasting (12.0%, 10.5%, 10.9%), family history of infant mortality (8.0%, 5.6%, 5.1%), and of under-five child mortality (10.4%, 7.1%, 6.4%) (all P<0.0001). Use of inexpensive drinking water was associated with under-five child mortality (Odds Ratio [O.R.] 1.32, 95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 1.20-1.45, P<0.0001) and diarrhea (O.R. 1.43, 95% C.I. 1.29-1.60, P<0.0001) in multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Purchase of inexpensive drinking water was common and associated with greater child malnutrition, diarrhea, and infant and under-five child mortality in the family. Greater efforts must be made to ensure access to safe drinking water, a basic human right and target of the Millennium Development Goals, in urban slums.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on under-five mortality and stunting: Analysis of data from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Selling, Katarina Ekholm; Shaheen, Rubina; Khan, Ashraful Islam; Persson, Lars-Åke; Lindholm, Lars

2018-01-01

Introduction Nutrition interventions may have favourable as well as unfavourable effects. The Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab (MINIMat), with early prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation, reduced infant mortality and were reported to be very cost-effective. However, the multiple micronutrients (MMS) supplement was associated with an increased risk of stunted growth in infancy and early childhood. This unfavourable outcome was not included in the previous cost-effectiveness analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the MINIMat interventions remain cost-effective in view of both favourable (decreased under-five-years mortality) and unfavourable (increased stunting) outcomes. Method Pregnant women in rural Bangladesh, where food insecurity still is prevalent, were randomized to early (E) or usual (U) invitation to be given food supplementation and daily doses of 30 mg, or 60 mg iron with 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS with 15 micronutrients including 30 mg iron and 400 μg of folic acid. E reduced stunting at 4.5 years compared with U, MMS increased stunting at 4.5 years compared with Fe60, while the combination EMMS reduced infant mortality compared with UFe60. The outcome measure used was disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure of overall disease burden that combines years of life lost due to premature mortality (under five-year mortality) and years lived with disability (stunting). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated using cost data from already published studies. Results By incrementing UFe60 (standard practice) to EMMS, one DALY could be averted at a cost of US$24. Conclusion When both favourable and unfavourable outcomes were included in the analysis, early prenatal food and multiple micronutrient interventions remained highly cost effective and seem to be meaningful from a public health perspective. PMID:29447176

The impact of the worldwide Millennium Development Goals campaign on maternal and under-five child mortality reduction: 'Where did the worldwide campaign work most effectively?'

PubMed

Cha, Seungman

2017-01-01

As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign. We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region. Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990-2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend. The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990-2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years. Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as 'off-track', 'insufficient progress', or 'no progress' even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on under-five mortality and stunting: Analysis of data from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Svefors, Pernilla; Selling, Katarina Ekholm; Shaheen, Rubina; Khan, Ashraful Islam; Persson, Lars-Åke; Lindholm, Lars

2018-01-01

Nutrition interventions may have favourable as well as unfavourable effects. The Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab (MINIMat), with early prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation, reduced infant mortality and were reported to be very cost-effective. However, the multiple micronutrients (MMS) supplement was associated with an increased risk of stunted growth in infancy and early childhood. This unfavourable outcome was not included in the previous cost-effectiveness analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the MINIMat interventions remain cost-effective in view of both favourable (decreased under-five-years mortality) and unfavourable (increased stunting) outcomes. Pregnant women in rural Bangladesh, where food insecurity still is prevalent, were randomized to early (E) or usual (U) invitation to be given food supplementation and daily doses of 30 mg, or 60 mg iron with 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS with 15 micronutrients including 30 mg iron and 400 μg of folic acid. E reduced stunting at 4.5 years compared with U, MMS increased stunting at 4.5 years compared with Fe60, while the combination EMMS reduced infant mortality compared with UFe60. The outcome measure used was disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure of overall disease burden that combines years of life lost due to premature mortality (under five-year mortality) and years lived with disability (stunting). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated using cost data from already published studies. By incrementing UFe60 (standard practice) to EMMS, one DALY could be averted at a cost of US$24. When both favourable and unfavourable outcomes were included in the analysis, early prenatal food and multiple micronutrient interventions remained highly cost effective and seem to be meaningful from a public health perspective.

The impact of the worldwide Millennium Development Goals campaign on maternal and under-five child mortality reduction: ‘Where did the worldwide campaign work most effectively?’

PubMed Central

Cha, Seungman

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign. Objective: We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region. Design: Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990–2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend. Results: The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990–2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years. Conclusions: Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as ‘off-track’, ‘insufficient progress’, or ‘no progress’ even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress. PMID:28168932

Essential interventions for child health

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Child health is a growing concern at the global level, as infectious diseases and preventable conditions claim hundreds of lives of children under the age of five in low-income countries. Approximately 7.6 million children under five years of age died in 2011, calculating to about 19 000 children each day and almost 800 every hour. About 80 percent of the world’s under-five deaths in 2011 occurred in only 25 countries, and about half in only five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan and China. The implications and burden of such statistics are huge and will have dire consequences if they are not corrected promptly. This paper reviews essential interventions for improving child health, which if implemented properly and according to guidelines have been found to improve child health outcomes, as well as reduce morbidity and mortality rates. It also includes caregivers and delivery strategies for each intervention. Interventions that have been associated with a decrease in mortality and disease rates include exclusive breastfeeding, complementary feeding strategies, routine immunizations and vaccinations for children, preventative zinc supplementation in children, and vitamin A supplementation in vitamin A deficient populations. PMID:25177974

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

2017-07-01

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The injury mortality burden in Guinea

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The injury mortality burden of Guinea has been rarely addressed. The paper aimed to report patterns of injury mortality burden in Guinea. Methods We retrieved the mortality data from the Guinean Annual Health Statistics Report 2007. The information about underlying cause of deaths was collected based on Guinean hospital discharge data, Hospital Mortuary and City Council Mortuary data. The causes of death are coded in the 9th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Multivariate Poisson regression was used to test the impacts of sex and age on mortality rates. The statistical analyses were performed using Statatm 10.0. Results In 2007, 7066 persons were reported dying of injuries in Guinea (mortality: 72.8 per 100,000 population). Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide and drowning were the five leading causes of fatal injuries for the whole population, accounting for 37%, 22%, 12%, 10% and 6% of total deaths, respectively. In general, age-specific injury causes displayed similar patterns of the whole population except that poisoning replaced falls as a leading cause among children under five years old. Males were at 30-50% more risk of dying from six commonest causes than females and old age groups had higher injury mortality rates than younger age groups. Conclusion Transportation, fire/burn, falls, homicide, and drowning accounted for the majority of total injury mortality burden in Guinea. Males and old adults were high-risk population of fatal injuries and should be targeted by injury prevention. Lots of work is needed to improve weak capacities for injury control in order to reduce the injury mortality burden. PMID:22937768

Validation of the CORB75 (confusion, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥ 75 years) as a simpler pneumonia severity rule.

PubMed

Ochoa-Gondar, O; Vila-Corcoles, A; Rodriguez-Blanco, T; Hospital, I; Salsench, E; Ansa, X; Saun, N

2014-04-01

This study compares the ability of two simpler severity rules (classical CRB65 vs. proposed CORB75) in predicting short-term mortality in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A population-based study was undertaken involving 610 patients ≥ 65 years old with radiographically confirmed CAP diagnosed between 2008 and 2011 in Tarragona, Spain (350 cases in the derivation cohort, 260 cases in the validation cohort). Severity rules were calculated at the time of diagnosis, and 30-day mortality was considered as the dependent variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to compare the discriminative power of the severity rules. Eighty deaths (46 in the derivation and 34 in the validation cohorts) were observed, which gives a mortality rate of 13.1 % (15.6 % for hospitalized and 3.3 % for outpatient cases). After multivariable analyses, besides CRB (confusion, respiration rate ≥ 30/min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg or diastolic ≤ 60 mmHg), peripheral oxygen saturation (≤ 90 %) and age ≥ 75 years appeared to be associated with increasing 30-day mortality in the derivation cohort. The model showed adequate calibration for the derivation and validation cohorts. A modified CORB75 scoring system (similar to the classical CRB65, but adding oxygen saturation and increasing the age to 75 years) was constructed. The AUC statistics for predicting mortality in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. In the derivation cohort, a CORB75 score ≥ 2 showed 78.3 % sensitivity and 65.5 % specificity for mortality (in the validation cohort, these were 82.4 and 71.7 %, respectively). The proposed CORB75 scoring system has good discriminative power in predicting short-term mortality among elderly people with CAP, which supports its use for severity assessment of these patients in primary care.

Validation of the MARS: a combined physiological and laboratory risk prediction tool for 5- to 7-day in-hospital mortality.

PubMed

Öhman, M C; Atkins, T E H; Cooksley, T; Brabrand, M

2018-06-01

The Medical Admission Risk System (MARS) uses 11 physiological and laboratory data and had promising results in its derivation study for predicting 5- and 7- day mortality. To perform an external independent validation of the MARS score. An unplanned secondary cohort study. Patients admitted to the medical admission unit at The Hospital of South West Jutland were included from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009 and 23 February 2010 until 26 May 2010 were analysed. Validation of the MARS scores using 5- and 7- day mortality was the primary endpoint. Patients of 5858 were included in the study. Patients of 2923 (49.9%) were women with a median age of 65 years (15-107). The MARS score had an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.858 (95% CI: 0.831-0.884) for 5-day mortality and 0.844 (0.818-0.870) for 7 day mortality with poor calibration for both outcomes. The MARS score had excellent discriminatory power but poor calibration in predicting both 5- and 7-day mortality. The development of accurate combination physiological/laboratory data risk scores has the potential to improve the recognition of at risk patients.

Pediatric trauma BIG score: predicting mortality in children after military and civilian trauma.

PubMed

Borgman, Matthew A; Maegele, Marc; Wade, Charles E; Blackbourne, Lorne H; Spinella, Philip C

2011-04-01

To develop a validated mortality prediction score for children with traumatic injuries. We identified all children (<18 years of age) in the US military established Joint Theater Trauma Registry from 2002 to 2009 who were admitted to combat-support hospitals with traumatic injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. We identified factors associated with mortality using univariate and then multivariate regression modeling. The developed mortality prediction score was then validated on a data set of pediatric patients (≤ 18 years of age) from the German Trauma Registry, 2002-2007. Admission base deficit, international normalized ratio, and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with mortality in 707 patients from the derivation set and 1101 patients in the validation set. These variables were combined into the pediatric "BIG" score (base deficit + [2.5 × international normalized ratio] + [15 - Glasgow Coma Scale), which were each calculated to have an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.95) and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.87-0.92) on the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The pediatric trauma BIG score is a simple method that can be performed rapidly on admission to evaluate severity of illness and predict mortality in children with traumatic injuries. The score has been shown to be accurate in both penetrating-injury and blunt-injury populations and may have significant utility in comparing severity of injury in future pediatric trauma research and quality-assurance studies. In addition, this score may be used to determine inclusion criteria on admission for prospective studies when accurately estimating the mortality for sample size calculation is required.

Prognostic score to predict mortality during TB treatment in TB/HIV co-infected patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc T; Jenkins, Helen E; Graviss, Edward A

2018-01-01

Estimating mortality risk during TB treatment in HIV co-infected patients is challenging for health professionals, especially in a low TB prevalence population, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic system. The current study aimed to develop and validate a simple mortality prognostic scoring system for TB/HIV co-infected patients. Using data from the CDC's Tuberculosis Genotyping Information Management System of TB patients in Texas reported from 01/2010 through 12/2016, age ≥15 years, HIV(+), and outcome being "completed" or "died", we developed and internally validated a mortality prognostic score using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The model's good calibration was determined by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test. Among the 450 patients included in the analysis, 57 (12.7%) died during TB treatment. The final prognostic score used six characteristics (age, residence in long-term care facility, meningeal TB, chest x-ray, culture positive, and culture not converted/unknown), which are routinely collected by TB programs. Prognostic scores were categorized into three groups that predicted mortality: low-risk (<20 points), medium-risk (20-25 points) and high-risk (>25 points). The model had good discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.82; 0.80 in bootstrap validation), and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.71. Our simple validated mortality prognostic scoring system can be a practical tool for health professionals in identifying TB/HIV co-infected patients with high mortality risk.

Ethnicity and excess mortality in severe mental illness: a cohort study.

PubMed

Das-Munshi, Jayati; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Dutta, Rina; Morgan, Craig; Nazroo, James; Stewart, Robert; Prince, Martin J

2017-05-01

Excess mortality in severe mental illness (defined here as schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar affective disorders) is well described, but little is known about this inequality in ethnic minorities. We aimed to estimate excess mortality for people with severe mental illness for five ethnic groups (white British, black Caribbean, black African, south Asian, and Irish) and to assess the association of ethnicity with mortality risk. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, from the case registry of the South London and Maudsley Trust (London, UK). We linked mortality data from the UK Office for National Statistics for the general population in England and Wales to our cohort, and determined all-cause and cause-specific mortality by ethnicity, standardised by age and sex to this population in 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios and a modified Cox regression, taking into account competing risks to derive sub-hazard ratios, for the association of ethnicity with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We identified 18 201 individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness (median follow-up 6·36 years, IQR 3·26-9·92), of whom 1767 died. Compared with the general population, age-and-sex-standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) in people with severe mental illness were increased for a range of causes, including suicides (7·65, 95% CI 6·43-9·04), non-suicide unnatural causes (4·01, 3·34-4·78), respiratory disease (3·38, 3·04-3·74), cardiovascular disease (2·65, 2·45-2·86), and cancers (1·45, 1·32-1·60). SMRs were broadly similar in different ethnic groups with severe mental illness, although the south Asian group had a reduced SMR for cancer mortality (0·49, 0·21-0·96). Within the cohort with severe mental illness, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and sub-hazard ratios for natural-cause and unnatural-cause mortality were lower in most ethnic minority groups relative to the white British group. People with severe mental illness have excess mortality relative to the general population irrespective of ethnicity. Among those with severe mental illness, some ethnic minorities have lower mortality than the white British group, for which the reasons deserve further investigation. UK Health Foundation and UK Academy of Medical Sciences. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Hill, Kenneth; You, Danzhen; Inoue, Mie; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Hill, Kenneth; Alkema, Leontine; Cousens, Simon; Croft, Trevor; Guillot, Michel; Pedersen, Jon; Walker, Neff; Wilmoth, John; Jones, Gareth

2012-01-01

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths. PMID:22952441

Levels of Urbanization and Parental Education in Relation to the Mortality Risk of Young Children

PubMed Central

Fang, Hsin-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Ling; Chen, Chiu-Ying; Jia, Chun-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Hou, Wen-Hsuan

2015-01-01

Background: The establishment of the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan in 1995 effectively removed the financial barrier to access health care services of Taiwanese people. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the independent and joint effects of parental education and area urbanization on the mortality risk among children under the universal health insurance coverage in Taiwan since 1995. Methods: We linked 1,501,620 births from 1996 to 2000 to the Taiwan Death Registry to estimate the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates, according to the levels of parental education and urbanization of residential areas. We used a logistic regression model that considers data clustering to estimate the independent and joint effects. Results: Lower levels of parental education and area urbanization exerted an independent effect of mortality on young children, with a stronger magnitude noted for areas with lower levels of urbanization. Children whose parents had lower levels of education and who were born in areas with lower levels of urbanization experienced the highest risk for neonatal (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.46–1.76), infant (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.48–1.70), and under-five (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.61–1.82) mortality. Conclusions: Even with universal health insurance coverage, lower levels of area urbanization and parental education still exerted independent and joint effects on mortality in young children. This finding implies the inadequate accessibility to health care resources for children from socially disadvantaged families and less urbanized areas. PMID:26184248

Prospective comparison of severity scores for predicting mortality in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Luque, Sonia; Gea, Joaquim; Saballs, Pere; Ferrández, Olivia; Berenguer, Nuria; Grau, Santiago

2012-06-01

Specific prognostic models for community acquired pneumonia (CAP) to guide treatment decisions have been developed, such us the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure and age ≥ 65 years index (CURB-65). Additionally, general models are available such as the Mortality Probability Model (MPM-II). So far, which score performs better in CAP remains controversial. The objective was to compare PSI and CURB-65 and the general model, MPM-II, for predicting 30-day mortality in patients admitted with CAP. Prospective observational study including all consecutive patients hospitalised with a confirmed diagnosis of CAP and treated according to the hospital guidelines. Comparison of the overall discriminatory power of the models was performed by calculating the area under a receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC ROC curve) and calibration through the Goodness-of-fit test. One hundred and fifty two patients were included (mean age 73.0 years; 69.1% male; 75.0% with more than one comorbid condition). Seventy-five percent of the patients were classified as high-risk subjects according to the PSI, versus 61.2% according to the CURB-65. The 30-day mortality rate was 11.8%. All three scores obtained acceptable and similar values of the AUCs of the ROC curve for predicting mortality. Despite all rules showed good calibration, this seemed to be better for CURB-65. CURB-65 also revealed the highest positive likelihood ratio. CURB-65 performs similar to PSI or MPMII for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with CAP. Consequently, this simple model can be regarded as a valid alternative to the more complex rules.

What about the mothers? An analysis of maternal mortality and morbidity in perinatal health surveillance systems in Europe.

PubMed

Bouvier-Colle, M-H; Mohangoo, A D; Gissler, M; Novak-Antolic, Z; Vutuc, C; Szamotulska, K; Zeitlin, J

2012-06-01

To assess capacity to develop routine monitoring of maternal health in the European Union using indicators of maternal mortality and severe morbidity. Analysis of aggregate data from routine statistical systems compiled by the EURO-PERISTAT project and comparison with data from national enquiries. Twenty-five countries in the European Union and Norway. Women giving birth in participating countries in 2003 and 2004. Application of a common collection of data by selecting specific International Classification of Disease codes from the 'Pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium' chapter. External validity was assessed by reviewing the results of national confidential enquiries and linkage studies. Maternal mortality ratio, with distribution of specific obstetric causes, and severe acute maternal morbidity, which included: eclampsia, surgery and blood transfusion for obstetric haemorrhage, and intensive-care unit admission. In 22 countries that provided data, the maternal mortality ratio was 6.3 per 100,000 live births overall and ranged from 0 to 29.6. Under-ascertainment was evident from comparisons with studies that use enhanced identification of deaths. Furthermore, routine cause of death registration systems in countries with specific systems for audit reported higher maternal mortality ratio than those in countries without audits. For severe acute maternal morbidity, 16 countries provided data about at least one category of morbidity, and only three provided data for all categories. Reported values ranged widely (from 0.2 to 1.6 women with eclampsia per 1000 women giving birth and from 0.2 to 1.0 hysterectomies per 1000 women). Currently available data on maternal mortality and morbidity are insufficient for monitoring trends over time in Europe and for comparison between countries. Confidential enquiries into maternal deaths are recommended. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

What about the mothers? An analysis of maternal mortality and morbidity in perinatal health surveillance systems in Europe

PubMed Central

Bouvier-Colle, M-H; Mohangoo, AD; Gissler, M; Novak-Antolic, Z; Vutuc, C; Szamotulska, K; Zeitlin, J

2012-01-01

Objective To assess capacity to develop routine monitoring of maternal health in the European Union using indicators of maternal mortality and severe morbidity. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine statistical systems compiled by the EURO-PERISTAT project and comparison with data from national enquiries. Setting Twenty-five countries in the European Union and Norway. Population Women giving birth in participating countries in 2003 and 2004. Methods Application of a common collection of data by selecting specific International Classification of Disease codes from the ‘Pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium’ chapter. External validity was assessed by reviewing the results of national confidential enquiries and linkage studies. Main outcome measures Maternal mortality ratio, with distribution of specific obstetric causes, and severe acute maternal morbidity, which included: eclampsia, surgery and blood transfusion for obstetric haemorrhage, and intensive-care unit admission. Results In 22 countries that provided data, the maternal mortality ratio was 6.3 per 100 000 live births overall and ranged from 0 to 29.6. Under-ascertainment was evident from comparisons with studies that use enhanced identification of deaths. Furthermore, routine cause of death registration systems in countries with specific systems for audit reported higher maternal mortality ratio than those in countries without audits. For severe acute maternal morbidity, 16 countries provided data about at least one category of morbidity, and only three provided data for all categories. Reported values ranged widely (from 0.2 to 1.6 women with eclampsia per 1000 women giving birth and from 0.2 to 1.0 hysterectomies per 1000 women). Conclusions Currently available data on maternal mortality and morbidity are insufficient for monitoring trends over time in Europe and for comparison between countries. Confidential enquiries into maternal deaths are recommended. PMID:22571748

Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a 5-year multicentre prospective registry analysis

PubMed Central

Motwani, Manish; Dey, Damini; Berman, Daniel S.; Germano, Guido; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H.; Andreini, Daniele; Budoff, Matthew J.; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q.; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J.W.; Cury, Ricardo C.; Delago, Augustin; Gomez, Millie; Gransar, Heidi; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Hindoyan, Niree; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kaufmann, Philipp A.; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; Lin, Fay Y.; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J.; Stehli, Julia; Villines, Todd C.; Dunning, Allison; Min, James K.; Slomka, Piotr J.

2017-01-01

Aims Traditional prognostic risk assessment in patients undergoing non-invasive imaging is based upon a limited selection of clinical and imaging findings. Machine learning (ML) can consider a greater number and complexity of variables. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of ML to predict 5-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA), and compared the performance to existing clinical or CCTA metrics. Methods and results The analysis included 10 030 patients with suspected coronary artery disease and 5-year follow-up from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter registry. All patients underwent CCTA as their standard of care. Twenty-five clinical and 44 CCTA parameters were evaluated, including segment stenosis score (SSS), segment involvement score (SIS), modified Duke index (DI), number of segments with non-calcified, mixed or calcified plaques, age, sex, gender, standard cardiovascular risk factors, and Framingham risk score (FRS). Machine learning involved automated feature selection by information gain ranking, model building with a boosted ensemble algorithm, and 10-fold stratified cross-validation. Seven hundred and forty-five patients died during 5-year follow-up. Machine learning exhibited a higher area-under-curve compared with the FRS or CCTA severity scores alone (SSS, SIS, DI) for predicting all-cause mortality (ML: 0.79 vs. FRS: 0.61, SSS: 0.64, SIS: 0.64, DI: 0.62; P< 0.001). Conclusions Machine learning combining clinical and CCTA data was found to predict 5-year ACM significantly better than existing clinical or CCTA metrics alone. PMID:27252451

Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a 5-year multicentre prospective registry analysis.

PubMed

Motwani, Manish; Dey, Damini; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; Delago, Augustin; Gomez, Millie; Gransar, Heidi; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Hindoyan, Niree; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; Lin, Fay Y; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Stehli, Julia; Villines, Todd C; Dunning, Allison; Min, James K; Slomka, Piotr J

2017-02-14

Traditional prognostic risk assessment in patients undergoing non-invasive imaging is based upon a limited selection of clinical and imaging findings. Machine learning (ML) can consider a greater number and complexity of variables. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of ML to predict 5-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA), and compared the performance to existing clinical or CCTA metrics. The analysis included 10 030 patients with suspected coronary artery disease and 5-year follow-up from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter registry. All patients underwent CCTA as their standard of care. Twenty-five clinical and 44 CCTA parameters were evaluated, including segment stenosis score (SSS), segment involvement score (SIS), modified Duke index (DI), number of segments with non-calcified, mixed or calcified plaques, age, sex, gender, standard cardiovascular risk factors, and Framingham risk score (FRS). Machine learning involved automated feature selection by information gain ranking, model building with a boosted ensemble algorithm, and 10-fold stratified cross-validation. Seven hundred and forty-five patients died during 5-year follow-up. Machine learning exhibited a higher area-under-curve compared with the FRS or CCTA severity scores alone (SSS, SIS, DI) for predicting all-cause mortality (ML: 0.79 vs. FRS: 0.61, SSS: 0.64, SIS: 0.64, DI: 0.62; P< 0.001). Machine learning combining clinical and CCTA data was found to predict 5-year ACM significantly better than existing clinical or CCTA metrics alone. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prediction of Outcome From Adult Bacterial Meningitis in a High-HIV-Seroprevalence, Resource-Poor Setting Using the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS).

PubMed

Wall, Emma C; Mukaka, Mavuto; Scarborough, Matthew; Ajdukiewicz, Katherine M A; Cartwright, Katharine E; Nyirenda, Mulinda; Denis, Brigitte; Allain, Theresa J; Faragher, Brian; Lalloo, David G; Heyderman, Robert S

2017-02-15

Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in adults residing in resource-poor countries is associated with mortality rates >50%. To improve outcome, interventional trials and standardized clinical algorithms are urgently required. To optimize these processes, we developed and validated an outcome prediction tool to identify ABM patients at greatest risk of death. We derived a nomogram using mortality predictors derived from a logistic regression model of a discovery database of adult Malawian patients with ABM (n = 523 [65%] cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] culture positive). We validated the nomogram internally using a bootstrap procedure and subsequently used the nomogram scores to further interpret the effects of adjunctive dexamethasone and glycerol using clinical trial data from Malawi. ABM mortality at 6-week follow-up was 54%. Five of 15 variables tested were strongly associated with poor outcome (CSF culture positivity, CSF white blood cell count, hemoglobin, Glasgow Coma Scale, and pulse rate), and were used in the derivation of the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS) nomogram. The C-index (area under the curve) was 0.76 (95% confidence interval, .71-.80) and calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic = 5.48, df = 8, P = .705). Harmful effects of adjunctive glycerol were observed in groups with relatively low predicted risk of poor outcome (25%-50% risk): Case Fatality Rate of 21% in the placebo group and 52% in the glycerol group (P < .001). This effect was not seen with adjunctive dexamethasone. MAMS provides a novel tool for predicting prognosis and improving interpretation of ABM clinical trials by risk stratification in resource-poor settings. Whether MAMS can be applied to non-HIV-endemic countries requires further evaluation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The resource curse and child mortality, 1961-2011.

PubMed

Wigley, Simon

2017-03-01

There is now an extensive literature on the adverse effect of petroleum wealth on the political, economic and social well-being of a country. In this study we examine whether the so-called resource curse extends to the health of children, as measured by under-five mortality. We argue that the type of revenue available to governments in petroleum-rich countries reduces their incentive to improve child health. Whereas the type of revenue available to governments in petroleum-poor countries encourages policies designed to improve child health. In order to test that line of argument we employ a panel of 167 countries (all countries with populations above 250,000) for the years 1961-2011. We find robust evidence that petroleum-poor countries outperform petroleum-rich countries when it comes to reducing under-five mortality. This suggests that governments in oil abundant countries often fail to effectively use the resource windfall at their disposal to improve child health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY IN MOZAMBIQUE

PubMed Central

CAU, BOAVENTURA M.; SEVOYAN, ARUSYAK; AGADJANIAN, VICTOR

2015-01-01

Summary The influence of religion on health remains a subject of considerable debate both in developed and developing settings. This study examines the connection between the religious affiliation of the mother and under-five mortality in Mozambique. It uses unique retrospective survey data collected in a predominantly Christian area in Mozambique to compare under-five mortality between children of women affiliated to organised religion and children of non-affiliated women. It finds that mother’s affiliation to any religious organisation, as compared to non-affiliation, has a significant positive effect on child survival net of education and other socio-demographic factors. When the effects of affiliation to specific denominational groups is examined, only affiliation to the Catholic or mainline Protestant churches and affiliation to Apostolic churches are significantly associated with improved child survival. It is argued that the advantages of these groups may be achieved through different mechanisms: the favourable effect on child survival of having mothers affiliated to the Catholic or mainline Protestant churches is likely due to these churches’ stronger connections to the health sector, while the beneficial effect of having an Apostolic mother is probably related to strong social ties and mutual support in Apostolic congregations. The findings thus shed light on multiple pathways through which organised religion can affect child health and survival in sub-Saharan Africa and similar developing settings. PMID:22856881

Political determinants of progress in the MDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Atti, Emma; Gulis, Gabriel

2017-11-01

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lagged furthest behind in achieving targets for the millennium development goals (MDG). We investigate the hypothesis that its slow progress is influenced by political factors. Longitudinal data on three health MDG indicators: under-five mortality, maternal mortality and HIV prevalence rates were collated from 1990 to 2012 in 48 countries. Countries were grouped into geo-political and eco-political groups. Groupings were based on conflict trends in geographical regions and the International Monetary Fund's classification of SSA countries based on gross national income and development assistance respectively. Cumulative progress in each group was derived and main effects tested using ANOVA. Correlation analysis was conducted between political variables - POLITY 2, fragile state index (FSI), voter turnout rates, civil liberty scores (CLS) and the health variables. Our results suggest a significant main effect of eco-political and geo-political groups on some of the health variables. Political conflict as measured by FSI and political participation as measured by CLS were stronger predictors of slow progress in reducing under-five mortality rates and maternal mortality ratios. Our findings highlight the need for further research on political determinants of mortality in SSA. Cohesive effort should focus on strengthening countries' political, economic and social capacities in order to achieve sustainable goals beyond 2015.

Development and validation of the INCREMENT-ESBL predictive score for mortality in patients with bloodstream infections due to extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae

PubMed Central

Palacios-Baena, Zaira Raquel; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Belén; De Cueto, Marina; Viale, Pierluigi; Venditti, Mario; Hernández-Torres, Alicia; Oliver, Antonio; Martínez-Martínez, Luis; Calbo, Esther; Pintado, Vicente; Gasch, Oriol; Almirante, Benito; Antonio Lepe, José; Pitout, Johann; Akova, Murat; Peña-Miralles, Carmen; Schwaber, Mitchell J.; Tumbarello, Mario; Tacconelli, Evelina; Origüen, Julia; Prim, Nuria; Bou, German; Giamarellou, Helen; Bermejo, Joaquín; Hamprecht, Axel; Pérez, Federico; Almela, Manuel; Lowman, Warren; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Navarro-San Francisco, Carolina; Torre-Cisneros, Julián; Carmeli, Yehuda; Bonomo, Robert A.; Paterson, David L.; Pascual, Álvaro; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús

2017-01-01

Background. Bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are frequent yet outcome prediction rules for clinical use have not been developed. The objective was to define and validate a predictive risk score for 30 day mortality. Methods. A multinational retrospective cohort study including consecutive episodes of BSI due to ESBL-E was performed; cases were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort (DC) or a validation cohort (VC). The main outcome variable was all-cause 30 day mortality. A predictive score was developed using logistic regression coefficients for the DC, then tested in the VC. Results. The DC and VC included 622 and 328 episodes, respectively. The final multivariate logistic regression model for mortality in the DC included age >50 years (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.18–5.85; 3 points), infection due to Klebsiella spp. (OR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.21–3.58; 2 points), source other than urinary tract (OR = 3.6; 95% CI: 2.02–6.44; 3 points), fatal underlying disease (OR = 3.91; 95% CI: 2.24–6.80; 4 points), Pitt score >3 (OR = 3.04; 95 CI: 1.69–5.47; 3 points), severe sepsis or septic shock at presentation (OR = 4.8; 95% CI: 2.72–8.46; 4 points) and inappropriate early targeted therapy (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.58–4.63; 2 points). The score showed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.85 in the DC and 0.82 in the VC. Mortality rates for patients with scores of < 11 and ≥11 were 5.6% and 45.9%, respectively, in the DC, and 5.4% and 34.8% in the VC. Conclusions. We developed and validated an easy-to-collect predictive scoring model for all-cause 30 day mortality useful for identifying patients at high and low risk of mortality. PMID:28062685

Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

2013-01-01

AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013).

PubMed

Morakinyo, Oyewale Mayowa; Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

2017-01-01

Neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under-five (U5M) mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS) was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029), 2008 (28647) and 2013 (31482) NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers' education, place of residence, child's sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival.

Development and validation of response markers to predict survival and pleurodesis success in patients with malignant pleural effusion (PROMISE): a multicohort analysis.

PubMed

Psallidas, Ioannis; Kanellakis, Nikolaos I; Gerry, Stephen; Thézénas, Marie Laëtitia; Charles, Philip D; Samsonova, Anastasia; Schiller, Herbert B; Fischer, Roman; Asciak, Rachelle; Hallifax, Robert J; Mercer, Rachel; Dobson, Melissa; Dong, Tao; Pavord, Ian D; Collins, Gary S; Kessler, Benedikt M; Pass, Harvey I; Maskell, Nick; Stathopoulos, Georgios T; Rahman, Najib M

2018-06-13

The prevalence of malignant pleural effusion is increasing worldwide, but prognostic biomarkers to plan treatment and to understand the underlying mechanisms of disease progression remain unidentified. The PROMISE study was designed with the objectives to discover, validate, and prospectively assess biomarkers of survival and pleurodesis response in malignant pleural effusion and build a score that predicts survival. In this multicohort study, we used five separate and independent datasets from randomised controlled trials to investigate potential biomarkers of survival and pleurodesis. Mass spectrometry-based discovery was used to investigate pleural fluid samples for differential protein expression in patients from the discovery group with different survival and pleurodesis outcomes. Clinical, radiological, and biological variables were entered into least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to build a model that predicts 3-month mortality. We evaluated the model using internal and external validation. 17 biomarker candidates of survival and seven of pleurodesis were identified in the discovery dataset. Three independent datasets (n=502) were used for biomarker validation. All pleurodesis biomarkers failed, and gelsolin, macrophage migration inhibitory factor, versican, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1 (TIMP1) emerged as accurate predictors of survival. Eight variables (haemoglobin, C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, cancer type, pleural fluid TIMP1 concentrations, and previous chemotherapy or radiotherapy) were validated and used to develop a survival score. Internal validation with bootstrap resampling and external validation with 162 patients from two independent datasets showed good discrimination (C statistic values of 0·78 [95% CI 0·72-0·83] for internal validation and 0·89 [0·84-0·93] for external validation of the clinical PROMISE score). To our knowledge, the PROMISE score is the first prospectively validated prognostic model for malignant pleural effusion that combines biological and clinical parameters to accurately estimate 3-month mortality. It is a robust, clinically relevant prognostic score that can be applied immediately, provide important information on patient prognosis, and guide the selection of appropriate management strategies. European Respiratory Society, Medical Research Funding-University of Oxford, Slater & Gordon Research Fund, and Oxfordshire Health Services Research Committee Research Grants. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causes of hatching failure in endangered birds

PubMed Central

Hemmings, N.; West, M.; Birkhead, T. R.

2012-01-01

About 10 per cent of birds' eggs fail to hatch, but the incidence of failure can be much higher in endangered species. Most studies fail to distinguish between infertility (due to a lack of sperm) and embryo mortality as the cause of hatching failure, yet doing so is crucial in order to understand the underlying problem. Using newly validated techniques to visualize sperm and embryonic tissue, we assessed the fertility status of unhatched eggs of five endangered species, including both wild and captive birds. All eggs were classified as ‘infertile’ when collected, but most were actually fertile with numerous sperm on the ovum. Eggs of captive birds had fewer sperm and were more likely to be infertile than those of wild birds. Our findings raise important questions regarding the management of captive breeding programmes. PMID:22977070

Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions.

PubMed

Tam, Yvonne; Huicho, Luis; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara

2016-10-04

Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban-rural residence. Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. Material and methods We searched PubMed for the mesh terms “perforated peptic ulcer”, “scoring systems”, “risk factors”, ”outcome prediction”, “mortality”, ”morbidity” and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Results A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. Conclusion While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use. PMID:23574922

Implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy: challenges and recommendations in Botswana

PubMed Central

Mupara, Lucia U.; Lubbe, Johanna C.

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality has been a major public health challenge from time immemorial. In response to this challenge, the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) strategy and presented it to the whole world as a key approach to reduce child morbidity and mortality. Botswana started to implement the IMCI strategy in 1998. Reductions in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) have been documented, although the reduction is not on par with the expected Millennium Development Goal 4 predictions. Design A quantitative study was done to identify the problems IMCI implementers face when tending children under 5 years in the Gaborone Health District of Botswana. The study population was made up of all the IMCI-trained and registered nurses, and systematic sampling was used to randomly select study participants. Questionnaires were used to collect data. Results The study findings indicated challenges related to low training coverage, health systems, and the unique features of the IMCI strategy. Conclusions The comprehensive implementation of the IMCI strategy has the potential to significantly influence the U5MR in Botswana. PMID:26899774

Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986–2011

PubMed Central

Lee, Hwa-Young; Van Do, Dung; Choi, Sugy; Trinh, Oanh Thi Hoang; To, Kien Gia

2016-01-01

Background Although Vietnam has taken great efforts to reduce child mortality in recent years, a large number of children still die at early age. Only a few studies have been conducted to identify at-risk groups in order to provide baseline information for effective interventions. Objective The study estimated the overall trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 1986–2011 and identified demographic and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality. Design Data from the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) in 2000 (MICS2), 2006 (MICS3) and 2011 (MICS4) were analysed. The IMR and U5MR were calculated using the indirect method developed by William Brass. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated to assess the association between child death and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Region-stratified stepwise logistic regression was conducted to test the sensitivity of the results. Results The IMR and U5MR significantly decreased for both male and female children between 1986 and 2010. Male children had higher IMR and U5MR compared with females in all 3 years. Women who were living in the Northern Midlands and Mountain areas were more likely to experience child deaths compared with women who were living in the Red River Delta. Women who were from minor ethnic groups, had low education, living in urban areas, and had multiple children were more likely to have experienced child deaths. Conclusion Baby boys require more healthcare attention during the first year of their life. Comprehensive strategies are necessary for tackling child mortality problems in Vietnam. This study shows that child mortality is not just a problem of poverty but involves many other factors. Further studies are needed to investigate pathways underlying associations between demographic and socioeconomic conditions and childhood mortality. PMID:26950560

Maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India: a comprehensive multivariate study.

PubMed

Singh, Rajvir; Tripathi, Vrijesh

2013-01-01

The objective of the study is to assess maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality at birth order 1 to 5 in India. Data for this study was derived from the children's record of the 2007 India National Family Health Survey, which is a nationally representative cross-sectional household survey. Data is segregated according to birth order 1 to 5 to assess mother's occupation, Mother's education, child's gender, Mother's age, place of residence, wealth index, mother's anaemia level, prenatal care, assistance at delivery , antenatal care, place of delivery and other maternal factors contributing to under-five mortality. Out of total 51555 births, analysis is restricted to 16567 children of first birth order, 14409 of second birth order, 8318 of third birth order, 5021 of fourth birth order and 3034 of fifth birth order covering 92% of the total births taken place 0-59 months prior to survey. Mother's average age in years for birth orders 1 to 5 are 23.7, 25.8, 27.4, 29 and 31 years, respectively. Most mothers whose children died are Hindu, with no formal education, severely anaemic and working in the agricultural sector. In multivariate logistic models, maternal education, wealth index and breastfeeding are protective factors across all birth orders. In birth order model 1 and 2, mother's occupation is a significant risk factor. In birth order models 2 to 5, previous birth interval of lesser than 24 months is a risk factor. Child's gender is a risk factor in birth order 1 and 5. Information regarding complications in pregnancy and prenatal care act as protective factors in birth order 1, place of delivery and immunization in birth order 2, and child size at birth in birth order 4. Prediction models demonstrate high discrimination that indicates that our models fit the data. The study has policy implications such as enhancing the Information, Education and Communication network for mothers, especially at higher birth orders, in order to reduce under-five mortality. The study emphasises the need of developing interventions to address the issues of anaemia, mothers working in the agricultural sector and improving relevant literacy among mothers.

Risk models for mortality following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Choke, E; Lee, K; McCarthy, M; Nasim, A; Naylor, A R; Bown, M; Sayers, R

2012-12-01

To develop and validate an "in house" risk model for predicting perioperative mortality following elective AAA repair and to compare this with other models. Multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for perioperative-day mortality from one tertiary institution's prospectively maintained database. Consecutive elective open (564) and endovascular (589) AAA repairs (2000-2010) were split randomly into development (810) and validation (343) data sets. The resultant model was compared to Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Modified Customised Probability Index (m-CPI), CPI, the Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) model and the Medicare model. Variables associated with perioperative mortality included: increasing age (P = 0.034), myocardial infarct within last 10 years (P = 0.0008), raised serum creatinine (P = 0.005) and open surgery (P = 0.0001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted probability of 30-day mortality in development and validation data sets were 0.79 and 0.82 respectively. AUCs for GAS, m-CPI and CPI were poor (0.63, 0.58 and 0.58 respectively), whilst VGNW and Medicare model were fair (0.73 and 0.79 respectively). In this study, an "in-house" developed and validated risk model has the most accurate discriminative value in predicting perioperative mortality after elective AAA repair. For purposes of comparative audit with case mix adjustments, national models such as the VGNW or Medicare models should be used. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing estimates of child mortality reduction modelled in LiST with pregnancy history survey data for a community-based NGO project in Mozambique

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background There is a growing body of evidence that integrated packages of community-based interventions, a form of programming often implemented by NGOs, can have substantial child mortality impact. More countries may be able to meet Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 targets by leveraging such programming. Analysis of the mortality effect of this type of programming is hampered by the cost and complexity of direct mortality measurement. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) produces an estimate of mortality reduction by modelling the mortality effect of changes in population coverage of individual child health interventions. However, few studies to date have compared the LiST estimates of mortality reduction with those produced by direct measurement. Methods Using results of a recent review of evidence for community-based child health programming, a search was conducted for NGO child health projects implementing community-based interventions that had independently verified child mortality reduction estimates, as well as population coverage data for modelling in LiST. One child survival project fit inclusion criteria. Subsequent searches of the USAID Development Experience Clearinghouse and Child Survival Grants databases and interviews of staff from NGOs identified no additional projects. Eight coverage indicators, covering all the project’s technical interventions were modelled in LiST, along with indicator values for most other non-project interventions in LiST, mainly from DHS data from 1997 and 2003. Results The project studied was implemented by World Relief from 1999 to 2003 in Gaza Province, Mozambique. An independent evaluation collecting pregnancy history data estimated that under-five mortality declined 37% and infant mortality 48%. Using project-collected coverage data, LiST produced estimates of 39% and 34% decline, respectively. Conclusions LiST gives reasonably accurate estimates of infant and child mortality decline in an area where a package of community-based interventions was implemented. This and other validation exercises support use of LiST as an aid for program planning to tailor packages of community-based interventions to the epidemiological context and for project evaluation. Such targeted planning and assessments will be useful to accelerate progress in reaching MDG4 targets. PMID:21501454

Identification and validation of distinct biological phenotypes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome by cluster analysis.

PubMed

Bos, L D; Schouten, L R; van Vught, L A; Wiewel, M A; Ong, D S Y; Cremer, O; Artigas, A; Martin-Loeches, I; Hoogendijk, A J; van der Poll, T; Horn, J; Juffermans, N; Calfee, C S; Schultz, M J

2017-10-01

We hypothesised that patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) can be clustered based on concentrations of plasma biomarkers and that the thereby identified biological phenotypes are associated with mortality. Consecutive patients with ARDS were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Cluster analysis of 20 biomarkers of inflammation, coagulation and endothelial activation provided the phenotypes in a training cohort, not taking any outcome data into account. Logistic regression with backward selection was used to select the most predictive biomarkers, and these predicted phenotypes were validated in a separate cohort. Multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify the independent association with mortality. Two phenotypes were identified in 454 patients, which we named 'uninflamed' (N=218) and 'reactive' (N=236). A selection of four biomarkers (interleukin-6, interferon gamma, angiopoietin 1/2 and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1) could be used to accurately predict the phenotype in the training cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Mortality rates were 15.6% and 36.4% (p<0.001) in the training cohort and 13.6% and 37.5% (p<0.001) in the validation cohort (N=207). The 'reactive phenotype' was independent from confounders associated with intensive care unit mortality (training cohort: OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.23; validation cohort: OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.31). Patients with ARDS can be clustered into two biological phenotypes, with different mortality rates. Four biomarkers can be used to predict the phenotype with high accuracy. The phenotypes were very similar to those found in cohorts derived from randomised controlled trials, and these results may improve patient selection for future clinical trials targeting host response in patients with ARDS. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

Improving the quality of adult mortality data collected in demographic surveys: validation study of a new siblings' survival questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal.

PubMed

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

2014-05-01

In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15-59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten ("heaping"). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961

Mortality in severe trauma patients attended by emergency services in Navarre, Spain: validation of a new prediction model and comparison with the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II.

PubMed

Ali Ali, Bismil; Lefering, Rolf; Fortún Moral, Mariano; Belzunegui Otano, Tomás

2018-01-01

To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Risk was calculated with the MPMN and the RISCII. The performance of each model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision with respect to observed mortality. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We included 516 patients. The mean (SD) age was 56 (23) years, and 363 (70%) were males. Ninety patients (17.4%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality rates predicted by the MPMN and RISCII were 16.4% and 15.4%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.925 (95% CI, 0.902-0.952) for the MPMN and 0.941 (95% CI, 0.921-0.962) for the RISCII (P=0.269, DeLong test). Calibration statistics were 13.6 (P=.09) for the MPMN and 8.9 (P=.35) for the RISCII. Both the MPMN and the RISCII show good ability to discriminate risk and predict 30-day all-cause mortality in severe trauma patients.

A web-based tool to predict acute kidney injury in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Development, internal validation and comparison.

PubMed

Zambetti, Benjamin R; Thomas, Fridtjof; Hwang, Inyong; Brown, Allen C; Chumpia, Mason; Ellis, Robert T; Naik, Darshan; Khouzam, Rami N; Ibebuogu, Uzoma N; Reed, Guy L

2017-01-01

In ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), acute kidney injury (AKI) may increase subsequent morbidity and mortality. Still, it remains difficult to predict AKI risk in these patients. We sought to 1) determine the frequency and clinical outcomes of AKI and, 2) develop, validate and compare a web-based tool for predicting AKI. In a racially diverse series of 1144 consecutive STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI occurred in 12.9% and was severe (Stage 2-3) in 2.9%. AKI was associated with increased mortality (5.7-fold, unadjusted) and hospital stay (2.5-fold). AKI was associated with systolic dysfunction, increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressures, hypotension and intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation. A computational algorithm (UT-AKI) was derived and internally validated. It showed higher sensitivity and improved overall prediction for AKI (area under the curve 0.76) vs. other published indices. Higher UT-AKI scores were associated with more severe AKI, longer hospital stay and greater hospital mortality. In a large, racially diverse cohort of STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI was relatively common and was associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A web-accessible, internally validated tool was developed with improved overall value for predicting AKI. By identifying patients at increased risk, this tool may help physicians tailor post-procedural diagnostic and therapeutic strategies after STEMI to reduce AKI and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Impact of a critical health workforce shortage on child health in Zimbabwe: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000–2013

PubMed Central

Haley, Connie A; Vermund, Sten H; Moyo, Precious; Madzima, Bernard; Kanyowa, Trevor; Desta, Teshome; Mwinga, Kasonde; Brault, Marie A

2017-01-01

Abstract Despite notable progress reducing global under-five mortality rates, insufficient progress in most sub-Saharan African nations has prevented the achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Country-level assessments of factors underlying why some African countries have not been able to achieve MDG#4 have not been published. Zimbabwe was included in a four-country study examining barriers and facilitators of under-five survival between 2000 and 2013 due to its comparatively slow progress towards MDG#4. A review of national health policy and strategy documents and analysis of qualitative data identified Zimbabwe’s critical shortage of health workers and diminished opportunities for professional training and education as an overarching challenge. Moreover, this insufficient health workforce severely limited the availability, quality, and utilization of life-saving health services for pregnant women and children during the study period. The impact of these challenges was most evident in Zimbabwe’s persistently high neonatal mortality rate, and was likely compounded by policy gaps failing to authorize midwives to deliver life-saving interventions and to ensure health staff make home post-natal care visits soon after birth. Similarly, the lack of a national policy authorizing lower-level cadres of health workers to provide community-based treatment of pneumonia contributed to low coverage of this effective intervention and high child mortality. Zimbabwe has recently begun to address these challenges through comprehensive policies and strategies targeting improved recruitment and retention of experienced senior providers and by shifting responsibility of basic maternal, neonatal and child health services to lower-level cadres and community health workers that require less training, are geographically broadly distributed, and are more cost-effective, however the impact of these interventions could not be assessed within the scope and timeframe of the current study. PMID:28064212

Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

PubMed

Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

2018-04-17

The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

Stagnant neonatal mortality and persistent health inequality in middle-income countries: a case study of the Philippines.

PubMed

Kraft, Aleli D; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country's socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality--that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system--to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

PubMed

Rasella, Davide; Basu, Sanjay; Hone, Thomas; Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-05-01

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

PubMed Central

Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-01-01

Background Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country’s GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)—one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world—and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF—compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained—may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. Methods and findings We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017–2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil’s vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%–10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity—a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207–29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%–41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%–39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%–12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%–13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017–2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%–21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. Conclusions The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection—threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality. PMID:29787574

Inequality in child mortality across different states of India: a comparative study.

PubMed

De, Partha; Dhar, Arpita

2013-12-01

The burden of social inequality falls disproportionately on child health and survival. This inequality raises the question of how wide this gap is, or what its relation is with the level of child mortality. Whether these disparities are increasing or declining with the development and how they differ from region to region or from state to state within the country needs to be looked into. As a measure of inequality and to compare the disparities between different states of India, concentration curves and indices are constructed from infant and under five mortality data classified under different quintiles of wealth index from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) data of India. Inequality measures indicate that inequality in child mortality is more concentrated in the comparatively developed states than the poorer states in India.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2015-08-06

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks. PMID:26247438

Get the Basics Right: A Description of the Key Priorities for Establishing a Neonatal Service in a Resource-Limited Setting in Cambodia.

PubMed

Fox-Lewis, Shivani; Genasci Smith, Wyatt; Lor, Vary; McKellar, Gregor; Phal, Chea; Fox-Lewis, Andrew; Turner, Paul; Neou, Leakhena; Turner, Claudia

2018-05-28

Worldwide, reduction in under-five mortality has not sufficiently included neonates, who represent 45% of deaths in children of age under five years. The least progress has been observed in resource-limited settings. This mixed methods study conducted at a Cambodian non-governmental paediatric hospital described the key priorities of the ongoing neonatal service. Routinely collected data from the hospital and microbiology databases included the number of admissions, discharges and deaths and the number of cases of bacteraemias (2011-2016). Semi-structured interviews with the management staff explored the essential features of the service. There were 2127 neonatal admissions and 247 deaths. The incidence of facility-based neonatal mortality decreased by 81%. Bacteraemic healthcare-associated infections decreased by 68%. A dedicated area for neonatal care was perceived as crucial, allowing better infection control and delivery of staff training. In this hospital, the neonatal service prioritized basic measures, particularly, having a dedicated neonatal area. Facility-based mortality and bacteraemic healthcare-associated infections decreased.

The Bronchiectasis Severity Index. An International Derivation and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Goeminne, Pieter; Aliberti, Stefano; McDonnell, Melissa J.; Lonni, Sara; Davidson, John; Poppelwell, Lucy; Salih, Waleed; Pesci, Alberto; Dupont, Lieven J.; Fardon, Thomas C.; De Soyza, Anthony; Hill, Adam T.

2014-01-01

Rationale: There are no risk stratification tools for morbidity and mortality in bronchiectasis. Identifying patients at risk of exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality is vital for future research. Objectives: This study describes the derivation and validation of the Bronchiectasis Severity Index (BSI). Methods: Derivation of the BSI used data from a prospective cohort study (Edinburgh, UK, 2008–2012) enrolling 608 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and hospitalization over 4-year follow-up. The score was validated in independent cohorts from Dundee, UK (n = 218); Leuven, Belgium (n = 253); Monza, Italy (n = 105); and Newcastle, UK (n = 126). Measurements and Main Results: Independent predictors of future hospitalization were prior hospital admissions, Medical Research Council dyspnea score greater than or equal to 4, FEV1 < 30% predicted, Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization, colonization with other pathogenic organisms, and three or more lobes involved on high-resolution computed tomography. Independent predictors of mortality were older age, low FEV1, lower body mass index, prior hospitalization, and three or more exacerbations in the year before the study. The derived BSI predicted mortality and hospitalization: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74–0.86) for mortality and AUC 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–0.91) for hospitalization, respectively. There was a clear difference in exacerbation frequency and quality of life using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire between patients classified as low, intermediate, and high risk by the score (P < 0.0001 for all comparisons). In the validation cohorts, the AUC for mortality ranged from 0.81 to 0.84 and for hospitalization from 0.80 to 0.88. Conclusions: The BSI is a useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality, hospitalization, and exacerbations across healthcare systems. PMID:24328736

Associations between malaria-related ideational factors and care-seeking behavior for fever among children under five in Mali, Nigeria, and Madagascar.

PubMed

Do, Mai; Babalola, Stella; Awantang, Grace; Toso, Michael; Lewicky, Nan; Tompsett, Andrew

2018-01-01

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under five years old in many low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we examined how malaria-related ideational factors may influence care-seeking behavior among female caregivers of children under five with fever. Data came from population-based surveys conducted in 2014-2015 by U.S. Agency for International Development-funded surveys in Madagascar, Mali, and Nigeria. The outcome of interest was whether a child under five with fever within two weeks prior to the survey was brought to a formal health facility for care. Results show a wide variation in care-seeking practices for children under five with fever across countries. Seeking care for febrile children under five in the formal health sector is far from a norm in the study countries. Important ideational factors associated with care-seeking behavior included caregivers' perceived social norms regarding treatment of fever among children under five in Nigeria and Madagascar, and caregiver's knowledge of the cause of malaria in Mali. Findings indicate that messages aimed to increase malaria-related knowledge should be tailored to the specific country, and that interventions designed to influence social norms about care-seeking are likely to result in increased care-seeking behavior for fever in children under five.

Development and validation of the Neonatal Mortality Score-9 Mexico to predict mortality in critically ill neonates.

PubMed

Márquez-González, Horacio; Jiménez-Báez, María Valeria; Muñoz-Ramírez, C Mireya; Yáñez-Gutiérrez, Lucelli; Huelgas-Plaza, Ana C; Almeida-Gutiérrez, Eduardo; Villa-Romero, Antonio Rafael

2015-06-01

Prognostic scales or scores are useful for physicians who work in neonatal intensive care units. There are several validated neonatal scores but they are mostly applicable to low birth weight infants. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a mortality prognostic score in newborn infants, that would include new prognostic outcome measures. The study was conducted in a mother and child hospital in the city of Mexico, part of the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (Mexican Institute of Social Security). In the first phase of the study, a nested case-control study was designed (newborn infants admitted on the basis of severity criteria during the first day of life), in which a scale was identified and developed with gradual parameters of cumulative score consisting of nine independent outcome measures to predict death, as follows: weight, metabolic acidemia, lactate, PaO2/FiO2, p(A-a) O2, A/a, platelets and serum glucose.Validation was performed in a matched prospective cohort, using 7-day mortality as an endpoint. The initial cohort consisted of 424 newborn infants. Twenty-two cases and 132 controls were selected; and 9 outcome measures were identified, making up the scale named neonatal mortality score-9 Mexico. The validation cohort consisted of 227 newborn infants. Forty-four (19%) deaths were recorded, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92. With a score between 16 and 18, an 85 (11-102) hazard ratio, 99% specificity, 71% positive predictive value and 90% negative predictive value were reported. Conclusions .The proposed scale is a reliable tool to predict severity in newborn infants.

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance. PMID:26492059

Pharmacogenetics of posttransplant diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Lancia, P; Adam de Beaumais, T; Jacqz-Aigrain, E

2017-06-01

Many factors (physiological, pathological, environmental or genetic) are associated with variability in drug effect. Most patients respond to a standard treatment but the drug may be ineffective or toxic. In this review, we focused on genetic markers of posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) after renal transplantation, a frequent complication of immunosuppressive therapy and important risk factor of graft loss and mortality. An initial literature search identified 100 publications and among them 32 association studies were retrieved under 'Pharmacogenetics and PTDM'. Thirty-five variants in 25 genes with an impact on insulin secretion, disposition or effect were significantly associated with PTDM. The population studied, immunosuppressive regimen, follow-up, PTDM diagnostic and genetic variations tested were highly variable between studies. Although pharmacogenetic biomarkers are key tools of great promise for preventing toxicities and improving event-free survival rates, replication studies are required to select validated biomarkers linked to the occurrence of PTDM and select appropriate immusuppressive treatment to improve renal graft and patient outcome.

Penetrating injuries to the duodenum: An analysis of 879 patients from the National Trauma Data Bank, 2010 to 2014.

PubMed

Phillips, Bradley; Turco, Lauren; McDonald, Dan; Mause, Alison; Walters, Ryan W

2017-11-01

Despite wide belief that the duodenal Organ Injury Scale has been validated, this has not been reported in the published literature. Based on clinical experience, we hypothesize that the American Association for Surgery of Trauma Organ Injury Scale (AAST-OIS) for duodenal injuries can independently predict mortality. Our objectives were threefold: (1) describe the national profile of penetrating duodenal injuries, (2) identify predictors of morbidity and mortality, and (3) validate the duodenum AAST-OIS as a statistically significant predictor of mortality. Using the Abbreviated Injury Scale 2005 and International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev.-Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) E-codes, we identified 879 penetrating duodenal trauma patients from the National Trauma Data Bank between 2010 and 2014. We controlled patient-level covariates of age, biological sex, systolic blood pressure (SBP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, pulse, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and Organ Injury Scale (OIS) grade. We estimated multivariable generalized linear mixed models to account for the nesting of patients within trauma centers. Our results indicated an overall mortality rate of 14.4%. Approximately 10% of patients died within 24 hours of admission, of whom 76% died in the first 6 hours. Patients averaged approximately five associated injuries, 45% of which involved the liver and colon. Statistically significant independent predictors of mortality were firearm mechanism, SBP, GCS, pulse, ISS, and AAST-OIS grade. Specifically, odds of death were decreased with 10 mm Hg higher admission SBP (13% decreased odds), one point higher GCS (14.4%), 10-beat lower pulse (8.2%), and 10-point lower ISS (51.0%). This study is the first to report the national profile of penetrating duodenal injuries. Using the National Trauma Data Bank, we identified patterns of injury, predictors of outcome, and validated the AAST-OIS for duodenal injuries as a statistically significant predictor of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiologic/Prognostic, level IV.

Hypoalbuminemia, Low Base Excess Values, and Tachypnea Predict 28-Day Mortality in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Seo, Min Ho; Choa, Minhong; You, Je Sung; Lee, Hye Sun; Hong, Jung Hwa; Park, Yoo Seok; Chung, Sung Phil; Park, Incheol

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to develop a new nomogram that can predict 28-day mortality in severe sepsis and/or septic shock patients using a combination of several biomarkers that are inexpensive and readily available in most emergency departments, with and without scoring systems. We enrolled 561 patients who were admitted to an emergency department (ED) and received early goal-directed therapy for severe sepsis or septic shock. We collected demographic data, initial vital signs, and laboratory data sampled at the time of ED admission. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set or validation set. For the training set, we generated models using independent variables associated with 28-day mortality by multivariate analysis, and developed a new nomogram for the prediction of 28-day mortality. Thereafter, the diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram was tested using the validation set. The prediction model that included albumin, base excess, and respiratory rate demonstrated the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.8173 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7605-0.8741]. The logistic analysis revealed that a conventional scoring system was not associated with 28-day mortality. In the validation set, the discrimination of a newly developed nomogram was also good, with an AUC value of 0.7537 (95% CI, 0.6563-0.8512). Our new nomogram is valuable in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with severe sepsis and/or septic shock in the emergency department. Moreover, our readily available nomogram is superior to conventional scoring systems in predicting mortality.

Neonatal, infant and under-five mortalities in Nigeria: An examination of trends and drivers (2003-2013)

PubMed Central

Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

2017-01-01

Neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under-five (U5M) mortality rates remain high in Nigeria. Evidence-based knowledge of trends and drivers of child mortality will aid proper interventions needed to combat the menace. Therefore, this study assessed the trends and drivers of NMR, IMR, and U5M over a decade in Nigeria. A nationally representative data from three consecutive Nigeria Demographic and Household Surveys (NDHS) was used. A total of 66,158 live births within the five years preceding the 2003 (6029), 2008 (28647) and 2013 (31482) NDHS were included in the analyses. NMR was computed using proportions while IMR and U5 were computed using life table techniques embedded in Stata version 12. Probit regression model and its associated marginal effects were used to identify the predisposing factors to NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M per 1000 live births in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 52, 41, 39; 100, 75, 69; and 201, 157, 128 respectively. The NMR, IMR, and U5M were consistently lower among children whose mothers were younger, living in rural areas and from richer households. Generally, the probability of neonate death in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were 0.049, 0.039 and 0.038 respectively, the probability of infant death was 0.093, 0.071 and 0.064 while the probability of under-five death was 0.140, 0.112 and 0.092 for the respective survey years. While adjusting for other variables, the likelihood of infant and under-five deaths was significantly reduced across the survey years. Maternal age, mothers’ education, place of residence, child’s sex, birth interval, weight at birth, skill of birth attendant, delivery by caesarean operation or not significantly influenced NMR, IMR, and U5M. The NMR, IMR, and U5M in Nigeria reduced over the studied period. Multi-sectoral interventions targeted towards the identified drivers should be instituted to improve child survival. PMID:28793340

The Effect of Empowerment and Self-Determination on Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Garces-Ozanne, Arlene; Kalu, Edna Ikechi; Audas, Richard

2016-12-01

There remains a persistent gap in health outcomes between wealthy and poor countries. Basic measures such as life expectancy and infant and under-five mortality remain divergent, with preventable deaths being unacceptably high, despite significant efforts to reduce these disparities. We examine the impact of empowerment, measured by Freedom House's ratings of country's political rights and civil liberties, while controlling for per capita gross domestic product, secondary school enrollment, and income inequality, on national health outcomes. Using data from 1970 to 2013 across 149 countries, our results suggest, quite strongly, that higher levels of empowerment have a significant positive association with life expectancy, particularly for females, and lower rates of infant and under-five mortality. Our results point to the need for efforts to stimulate economic growth be accompanied with reforms to increase the levels empowerment through increasing political rights and civil liberties. © 2016 Society for Public Health Education.

Independent and combined effects of maternal smoking and solid fuel on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Akinyemi, Joshua O; Adedini, Sunday A; Wandera, Stephen O; Odimegwu, Clifford O

2016-12-01

To estimate the independent and combined risks of infant and child mortality associated with maternal smoking and use of solid fuel in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooled weighted data on 143 602 under-five children in the most recent demographic and health surveys for 15 sub-Saharan African countries were analysed. The synthetic cohort life table technique and Cox proportional hazard models were employed to investigate the effect of maternal smoking and solid cooking fuel on infant (age 0-11 months) and child (age 12-59 months) mortality. Socio-economic and other confounding variables were included as controls. The distribution of the main explanatory variable in households was as follows: smoking + solid fuel - 4.6%; smoking + non-solid fuel - 0.22%; no smoking + solid fuel - 86.9%; and no smoking + non-solid fuel - 8.2%. The highest infant mortality rate was recorded among children exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (72 per 1000 live births); the child mortality rate was estimated to be 54 per 1000 for this group. In full multivariate models, the risk of infant death was 71% higher among those exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (HR = 1.71, CI: 1.29-2.28). For ages 12 to 59 months, the risk of death was 99% higher (HR = 1.99, CI: 1.28-3.08). Combined exposures to cigarette smoke and solid fuel increase the risks of infant and child mortality. Mothers of under-five children need to be educated about the danger of smoking while innovative approaches are needed to reduce the mortality risks associated with solid cooking fuel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validation of SAPS3 admission score and its customization for use in Korean intensive care unit patients: a prospective multicentre study.

PubMed

Lim, So Yeon; Koh, Shin Ok; Jeon, Kyeongman; Na, Sungwon; Lim, Chae-Man; Choi, Won-Il; Lee, Young-Joo; Kim, Seok Chan; Chon, Gyu Rak; Kim, Je Hyeong; Kim, Jae Yeol; Lim, Jaemin; Rhee, Chin Kook; Park, Sunghoon; Kim, Ho Cheol; Lee, Jin Hwa; Lee, Ji Hyun; Park, Jisook; Koh, Younsuck; Suh, Gee Young

2013-08-01

To externally validate the simplified acute physiology score 3 (SAPS3) and to customize it for use in Korean intensive care unit (ICU) patients. This is a prospective multicentre cohort study involving 22 ICUs from 15 centres throughout Korea. The study population comprised patients who were consecutively admitted to participating ICUs from 1 July 2010 to 31 January 2011. A total of 4617 patients were enrolled. ICU mortality was 14.3%, and hospital mortality was 20.6%. The patients were randomly assigned into one of two cohorts: a development (n = 2309) or validation (n = 2308) cohort. In the development cohort, the general SAPS3 had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.829), but poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test H = 123.06, P < 0.001, C = 118.45, P < 0.001). The Australasia SAPS3 did not improve calibration (H = 73.53, P < 0.001, C = 70.52, P < 0.001). Customization was achieved by altering the logit of the original SAPS3 equation. The new equation for Korean ICU patients was validated in the validation cohort, and demonstrated both good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.835) and good calibration (H = 4.61, P = 0.799, C = 5.67, P = 0.684). General and regional Australasia SAPS3 admission scores showed poor calibration for use in Korean ICU patients, but the prognostic power of the SAPS3 was significantly improved by customization. Prediction models should be customized before being used to predict mortality in different regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kimberly Singer; Eggleston, Karen; Miller, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

2014-01-01

China's growth in life expectancy between 1950 and 1980 ranks as among the most rapid sustained increases in documented global history. However, no study of which we are aware has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of various explanations proposed for these gains. We create and analyse a new province-level panel data set spanning 1950-80 using historical information from Chinese public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that increases in educational attainment and public health campaigns jointly explain 50-70 per cent of the dramatic reductions in infant and under-five mortality during our study period. These results are consistent with the importance of non-medical determinants of population health improvement – and under some circumstances, how general education may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions. PMID:25495509

Geographic disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015: a population-based study.

PubMed

Kang, Leni; He, Chunhua; Miao, Lei; Liang, Juan; Zhu, Jun; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Qi; Wang, Yanping

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the disparities in pneumonia-specific under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) among and within three geographic regions in Mainland China from 1996 to 2015. Data were obtained from the national Under-Five Child Mortality Surveillance System and grouped into 2-year periods. The Cochran-Armitage trend test and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test were used to assess trends and differences in the pneumonia-specific U5MRs among and within geographic regions. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. The pneumonia-specific U5MR decreased by 90.6%, 89.0%, and 83.5% in East, Middle, and West China, respectively, with a larger decrease in rural areas. The pneumonia-specific U5MR was highest in West China, and was 7.2 (95% CI 5.9-8.7) times higher than that in East China in 2014-2015. In 2014-2015, the RRs were 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.5), 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), and 3.4 (95% CI 2.8-4.0) between rural and urban areas in East, Middle, and West China, respectively. Pneumonia-specific U5MRs decreased from 1996 to 2015 across China, particularly in rural areas. However, disparities remained among and within geographic regions. Additional strategies and interventions should be introduced in West China, especially the rural areas, to further reduce the pneumonia-specific U5MR. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[Factors associated to mortality by non-communicable diseases in Colombia, 2008-2012].

PubMed

Martínez, Julio Cesar

2016-12-01

Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of premature mortality and disability in the world. To describe the trend pattern and to explore which risk factors were associated with mortality rates in Colombia from 2008 to 2012. A descriptive study was conducted to analyze mortality rate trends from the official vital statistics (death certificates) from 2008 to 2012. Between 2008 and 2012 there were 727,146 deaths due to non-communicable diseases, and 58.5% of them occurred among men aged less than 75 years. The mortality rate during the study period was 319.5 deaths per 100,000 people. The trend showed a statistically significant decline in mortality rates (-3%) across the country. For each woman who died due to external causes (i.e., not related to illness or old age), five men died under the same circumstances (OR=5,295; IC 95%: 5,143-5,454). The five most important causes of mortality were heart diseases, injuries due to aggressions, malignant tumors, chronic lower respiratory diseases and road traffic accidents. The cause of death differed significantly by sex and age. The main causes of death in Colombia were heart diseases and injuries (homicide). Mortality was higher among men of all ages than among women, but 15 to 45 year-old males were more likely to die due to external causes.

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

The importance of intersectoral factors in promoting equity-oriented universal health coverage: a multilevel analysis of social determinants affecting neonatal infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Huda, Tanvir M; Tahsina, Tazeen; El Arifeen, Shams; Dibley, Michael J

2016-01-01

Health is multidimensional and affected by a wide range of factors, many of which are outside the health sector. To improve population health and reduce health inequality, it is important that we take into account the complex interactions among social, environmental, behavioural, and biological factors and design our health interventions accordingly. This study examines mortality differentials in children of different age groups by key social determinants of health (SDH) including parental education and employment, mother's level of autonomy, age, asset index, living arrangements (utilities), and other geographical contextual factors (area of residence, road conditions). We used data from the two rounds of Bangladesh Health and Demographic Survey, a nationally representative sample survey of the population residing in Bangladesh. Multilevel logistic models were used to study the impact of SDH on child mortality. The study found that the mother's age, the education of both parents, the mother's autonomy to take decisions about matters linked to the health of her child, the household socio-economic conditions, the geographical region of residence, and the condition of the roads were significantly associated with higher risks of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in Bangladesh. The study findings suggest there are complex relationships among different SDH. Thus larger intersectoral actions will be needed to reduce disparities in child health and mortality and achieve meaningful progress towards equity-oriented universal health coverage.

Association of BCG, DTP, and measles containing vaccines with childhood mortality: systematic review.

PubMed

Higgins, Julian P T; Soares-Weiser, Karla; López-López, José A; Kakourou, Artemisia; Chaplin, Katherine; Christensen, Hannah; Martin, Natasha K; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Reingold, Arthur L

2016-10-13

 To evaluate the effects on non-specific and all cause mortality, in children under 5, of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), and standard titre measles containing vaccines (MCV); to examine internal validity of the studies; and to examine any modifying effects of sex, age, vaccine sequence, and co-administration of vitamin A.  Systematic review, including assessment of risk of bias, and meta-analyses of similar studies.  Clinical trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies of the effects on mortality of BCG, whole cell DTP, and standard titre MCV in children under 5.  Searches of Medline, Embase, Global Index Medicus, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, supplemented by contact with experts in the field. To avoid overlap in children studied across the included articles, findings from non-overlapping birth cohorts were identified.  Results from 34 birth cohorts were identified. Most evidence was from observational studies, with some from short term clinical trials. Most studies reported on all cause (rather than non-specific) mortality. Receipt of BCG vaccine was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality: the average relative risks were 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.49 to 1.01) from five clinical trials and 0.47 (0.32 to 0.69) from nine observational studies at high risk of bias. Receipt of DTP (almost always with oral polio vaccine) was associated with a possible increase in all cause mortality on average (relative risk 1.38, 0.92 to 2.08) from 10 studies at high risk of bias; this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Receipt of standard titre MCV was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality (relative risks 0.74 (0.51 to 1.07) from four clinical trials and 0.51 (0.42 to 0.63) from 18 observational studies at high risk of bias); this effect seemed stronger in girls than in boys. Seven observational studies, assessed as being at high risk of bias, have compared sequences of vaccines; results of a subset of these suggest that administering DTP with or after MCV may be associated with higher mortality than administering it before MCV.  Evidence suggests that receipt of BCG and MCV reduce overall mortality by more than would be expected through their effects on the diseases they prevent, and receipt of DTP may be associated with an increase in all cause mortality. Although efforts should be made to ensure that all children are immunised on schedule with BCG, DTP, and MCV, randomised trials are needed to compare the effects of different sequences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Exploring geological and socio-demographic factors associated with under-five mortality in the Wenchuan earthquake using neural network model.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Driskell, Luke; Zhu, Jun

2012-01-01

On 12 May 2008, a devastating earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Among the large number of dead or missing were children, particularly children aged less than five years old, a fact which drew significant media attention. To obtain relevant information specifically to aid further studies and future preventative measures, a neural network model was proposed to explore some geological and socio-demographic factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that topographic slope (mean 35.76%), geomorphology (mean 24.18%), earthquake intensity (mean 13.68%), and average income (mean 11%) had great contributions to child mortality. These findings could provide some clues to researchers for further studies and to policy makers in deciding how and where preventive measures and corresponding policies should be implemented in the reconstruction of communities.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

PubMed

Thamer, Mae; Kaufman, James S; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Qian; Cotter, Dennis J; Bang, Heejung

2015-12-01

A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. Predicted mortality by logistic regression. The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making regarding treatment options. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Group (APR-DRG) Risk of Mortality and Severity of Illness Modifiers as a Measure of Perioperative Risk.

PubMed

McCormick, Patrick J; Lin, Hung-Mo; Deiner, Stacie G; Levin, Matthew A

2018-03-22

The All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Group (APR-DRG) is an inpatient visit classification system that assigns a diagnostic related group, a Risk of Mortality (ROM) subclass and a Severity of Illness (SOI) subclass. While extensively used for cost adjustment, no study has compared the APR-DRG subclass modifiers to the popular Charlson Comorbidity Index as a measure of comorbidity severity in models for perioperative in-hospital mortality. In this study we attempt to validate the use of these subclasses to predict mortality in a cohort of surgical patients. We analyzed all adult (age over 18 years) inpatient non-cardiac surgery at our institution between December 2005 and July 2013. After exclusions, we split the cohort into training and validation sets. We created prediction models of inpatient mortality using the Charlson Comorbidity Index, ROM only, SOI only, and ROM with SOI. Models were compared by receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and Brier score. After exclusions, we analyzed 63,681 patient-visits. Overall in-hospital mortality was 1.3%. The median number of ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes was 6 (Q1-Q3 4-10). The median Charlson Comorbidity Index was 0 (Q1-Q3 0-2). When the model was applied to the validation set, the c-statistic for Charlson was 0.865, c-statistic for ROM was 0.975, and for ROM and SOI combined the c-statistic was 0.977. The scaled Brier score for Charlson was 0.044, Brier for ROM only was 0.230, and Brier for ROM and SOI was 0.257. The APR-DRG ROM or SOI subclasses are better predictors than the Charlson Comorbidity Index of in-hospital mortality among surgical patients.

Assessment of malnutrition in hip fracture patients: effects on surgical delay, hospital stay and mortality.

PubMed

Symeonidis, Panagiotis D; Clark, David

2006-08-01

The importance of malnutrition in elderly hip fracture patients has long been recognised. All patients operated upon for a hip fracture over a five-year period were assessed according to two nutritional markers : a) serum albumin levels and b) peripheral blood total lymphocyte count. Patients were subdivided into groups according to the four possible combinations of these results. Outcomes according to four clinical outcome parameters were validated: a) waiting time to operation b) length of hospitalisation, c) in-hospital mortality, and d) one-year postoperative mortality. Significant differences were found between malnourished patients and those with normal laboratory values with regard to surgical delay and one year postoperative mortality. Malnourished patients were also more likely to be hospitalised longer than a month and to die during their hospital stay, but the difference was not significant. The combination of serum albumin level and total lymphocyte count can be used as an independent prognostic factor in hip fracture patients.

Using the Lives Saved Tool to aid country planning in meeting mortality targets: a case study from Mali.

PubMed

Keita, Youssouf; Sangho, Hamadoun; Roberton, Timothy; Vignola, Emilia; Traoré, Mariam; Munos, Melinda

2017-11-07

Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali's MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions. The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali's ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention. If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2. This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.

Assessing the causes of under-five mortality in the Albert Schweitzer Hospital service area of rural Haiti.

PubMed

Perry, Henry B; Ross, Allen G; Fernand, Facile

2005-09-01

Limited information is available regarding the causes of under-five mortality in nearly all of the countries in which mortality is the highest. The purpose of this study was to use a standard computerized protocol for defining the leading causes of death among children in a high-mortality rural population of Haiti and to highlight the need for similar studies else-where in Haiti and throughout the high-mortality areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2001 a standardized, closed-ended verbal autopsy questionnaire endorsed by the World Health Organization was administered to a representative, population-based sample of the mothers or other caregivers of 97 children who had died before reaching 5 years of age between 1995 and 1999 in the service area of the Albert Schweitzer Hospital, which is located in the rural Artibonite Valley of Haiti. With the data from the questionnaires we used a computerized algorithm to generate diagnoses of the cause of death; the algorithm made it possible to have more than one cause of death. Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) was the leading diagnosis, present in 45% of all under-five deaths, followed by enteric diseases, present in 21% of deaths. Neonatal tetanus, preterm birth, and other early neonatal causes unassociated with ALRI or diarrhea were present in 41% of the neonatal deaths. Among children 1-59 months of age, ALRI was present in 51% of the deaths, and enteric diseases in 30%. Deaths were concentrated during the first few months of life, with 35% occurring during the first month. Among the neonatal deaths, 27% occurred on the first day of life, and 80% occurred during the first 10 days of life. In the Albert Schweitzer Hospital program area--and presumably in other areas of Haiti as well--priority needs to be given to the prevention of and the early, effective treatment of ALRI, diarrhea, and early neonatal conditions. This study points to the need for more, similar standardized assessments to guide local, regional, and national programs.

Socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality: comparisons across nine developing countries.

PubMed Central

Wagstaff, A.

2000-01-01

This paper generates and analyses survey data on inequalities in mortality among infants and children aged under five years by consumption in Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nepal, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, and Viet Nam. The data were obtained from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Mortality rates were estimated directly where complete fertility histories were available and indirectly otherwise. Mortality distributions were compared between countries by means of concentration curves and concentration indices: dominance checks were carried out for all pairwise intercountry comparisons; standard errors were calculated for the concentration indices; and tests of intercountry differences in inequality were performed. PMID:10686730

[Death rate by malnutrition in children under the age of five, Colombia].

PubMed

Quiroga, Edwin Fernando

2012-01-01

Much higher mortalities occur in children under five in developing countries with high poverty rates compared with developed countries. Causes of death are related to perinatal conditions, measles, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, respiratory diseases and others. Throughout the world, malnutrition has been identified as the underlying cause of approximately half of these deaths. Death rate due to malnutrition was described using an adjusted method that takes into account the difficulties of identifying malnutrition as a direct cause of death. A descriptive study included analysis of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) vital statistics from 2003-2007. Death rates were estimated, a method of analysis of multiple causes was applied for infectious diseases, along with calculations of death probabilities. Malnutrition was associated with infectious diseases. The frequency of infectious disease as a direct cause of death was almost seven times higher in cases with the antecedent of malnutrition. When adjusted death rate values were used, the initial value increased nearly five times. The probability of death after the adjustment for inadequate classification increased approximately four times. The Analysis of Multiple Causes Method was established as an effective method in analyzing malnutrition and infectious diesease mortality in Colombia. Malnutrition may be a direct underlying cause of death in one of eight deaths in children <1 year old and one of three deaths in 1-4-year-olds.

The quest for equity in Latin America: a comparative analysis of the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Brazil and Colombia have pursued extensive reforms of their health care systems in the last couple of decades. The purported goals of such reforms were to improve access, increase efficiency and reduce health inequities. Notwithstanding their common goals, each country sought a very different pathway to achieve them. While Brazil attempted to reestablish a greater level of State control through a public national health system, Colombia embraced market competition under an employer-based social insurance scheme. This work thus aims to shed some light onto why they pursued divergent strategies and what that has meant in terms of health outcomes. Methods A critical review of the literature concerning equity frameworks, as well as the health care reforms in Brazil and Colombia was conducted. Then, the shortfall inequality values of crude mortality rate, infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and life expectancy for the period 1960-2005 were calculated for both countries. Subsequently, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed and controlled for possibly confounding factors. Results When controlling for the underlying historical time trend, both countries appear to have experienced a deceleration of the pace of improvements in the years following the reforms, for all the variables analyzed. In the case of Colombia, some of the previous gains in under-five mortality rate and crude mortality rate were, in fact, reversed. Conclusions Neither reform seems to have had a decisive positive impact on the health outcomes analyzed for the defined time period of this research. This, in turn, may be a consequence of both internal characteristics of the respective reforms and external factors beyond the direct control of health reformers. Among the internal characteristics: underfunding, unbridled decentralization and inequitable access to care seem to have been the main constraints. Conversely, international economic adversities, high levels of rural and urban violence, along with entrenched income inequalities seem to have accounted for the highest burden among external factors. PMID:22296659

Mortality prediction using TRISS methodology in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI).

PubMed

Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J

2016-10-01

To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Network advocacy and the emergence of global attention to newborn survival

PubMed Central

Shiffman, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Globally 2.9 million babies die each year before reaching 28 days of life. Over the past quarter century, neonatal mortality has declined at a slower pace than post-neonatal under-five mortality: in consequence newborns now comprise 44% of all deaths to children under five years. Despite high numbers of newborn deaths, global organizations and national governments paid little attention to the issue until 2000, and resources, while growing since then, remain inadequate. This study examines the factors behind these patterns of policy attention: the delayed emergence of attention, its sudden appearance in 2000, its growth thereafter, but the dearth of resources to date. Drawing on a framework on global health networks grounded in collective action theory, the study finds that a newborn survival network helped to shift perceptions about the problem’s severity and tractability, contributing to the rise of global attention. Its efforts were facilitated by pressure on governments to achieve the child survival Millennium Development Goal and by growing awareness that the neonatal period constituted a growing percentage of under-five mortality, a fact the network publicized. The network’s relatively recent emergence, its predominantly technical rather than political composition and strategies, and its inability to date to find a framing of the issue that has convinced national political leaders of the issue’s urgency, in part explain the insufficiency of resources. However, since 2010 a number of non-health oriented inter-governmental organizations have begun to pay attention to the issue, and several countries with high neonatal mortality have created national plans, developments which augur well for the future. The study points to two broader implications concerning how neglected global health issues come to attract attention: priority emerges from a confluence of factors, rather than any single cause; and growth in priority may depend on the creation of a broader political coalition that extends beyond the largely technically oriented actors who may first press for attention to a problem. PMID:26405157

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

PubMed

Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

2018-01-01

Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Pulmonary function tests as outcomes for systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease.

PubMed

Caron, Melissa; Hoa, Sabrina; Hudson, Marie; Schwartzman, Kevin; Steele, Russell

2018-06-30

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). We performed a systematic review to characterise the use and validation of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) as surrogate markers for systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) progression.Five electronic databases were searched to identify all relevant studies. Included studies either used at least one PFT measure as a longitudinal outcome for SSc-ILD progression ( i.e. outcome studies) and/or reported at least one classical measure of validity for the PFTs in SSc-ILD ( i.e. validation studies).This systematic review included 169 outcome studies and 50 validation studies. Diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide ( D LCO ) was cumulatively the most commonly used outcome until 2010 when it was surpassed by forced vital capacity (FVC). FVC (% predicted) was the primary endpoint in 70.4% of studies, compared to 11.3% for % predicted D LCO Only five studies specifically aimed to validate the PFTs: two concluded that D LCO was the best measure of SSc-ILD extent, while the others did not favour any PFT. These studies also showed respectable validity measures for total lung capacity (TLC).Despite the current preference for FVC, available evidence suggests that D LCO and TLC should not yet be discounted as potential surrogate markers for SSc-ILD progression. Copyright ©ERS 2018.

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

Multidimensional poverty and child survival in India.

PubMed

Mohanty, Sanjay K

2011-01-01

Though the concept of multidimensional poverty has been acknowledged cutting across the disciplines (among economists, public health professionals, development thinkers, social scientists, policy makers and international organizations) and included in the development agenda, its measurement and application are still limited. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY: Using unit data from the National Family and Health Survey 3, India, this paper measures poverty in multidimensional space and examine the linkages of multidimensional poverty with child survival. The multidimensional poverty is measured in the dimension of knowledge, health and wealth and the child survival is measured with respect to infant mortality and under-five mortality. Descriptive statistics, principal component analyses and the life table methods are used in the analyses. The estimates of multidimensional poverty are robust and the inter-state differentials are large. While infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate are disproportionately higher among the abject poor compared to the non-poor, there are no significant differences in child survival among educationally, economically and health poor at the national level. State pattern in child survival among the education, economical and health poor are mixed. Use of multidimensional poverty measures help to identify abject poor who are unlikely to come out of poverty trap. The child survival is significantly lower among abject poor compared to moderate poor and non-poor. We urge to popularize the concept of multiple deprivations in research and program so as to reduce poverty and inequality in the population.

Fatal anaphylaxis registries data support changes in the who anaphylaxis mortality coding rules.

PubMed

Tanno, Luciana Kase; Simons, F Estelle R; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Calderon, Moises A; Aymé, Ségolène; Demoly, Pascal

2017-01-13

Anaphylaxis is defined as a severe life-threatening generalized or systemic hypersensitivity reaction. The difficulty of coding anaphylaxis fatalities under the World Health Organization (WHO) International Classification of Diseases (ICD) system is recognized as an important reason for under-notification of anaphylaxis deaths. On current death certificates, a limited number of ICD codes are valid as underlying causes of death, and death certificates do not include the word anaphylaxis per se. In this review, we provide evidences supporting the need for changes in WHO mortality coding rules and call for addition of anaphylaxis as an underlying cause of death on international death certificates. This publication will be included in support of a formal request to the WHO as a formal request for this move taking the 11 th ICD revision.

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gerland, Patrick; Pelletier, François; Saabneh, Ameed

2012-01-01

Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of 4 q 1, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Conclusions Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of 5 q 0 is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952438

Improving the Quality of Adult Mortality Data Collected in Demographic Surveys: Validation Study of a New Siblings' Survival Questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal

PubMed Central

Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

2014-01-01

Background In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. Methods and Findings We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15–59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten (“heaping”). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. Conclusions The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24866715

Stagnant Neonatal Mortality and Persistent Health Inequality in Middle-Income Countries: A Case Study of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kraft, Aleli D.; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country’s socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Methodology Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Findings Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. Conclusion The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality – that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system – to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health. PMID:23308278

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosling, Simon N.; McGregor, Glenn R.; Páldy, Anna

2007-08-01

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature ( T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature-mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Number of organ dysfunctions predicts mortality in emergency department patients with suspected infection: a multicenter validation study.

PubMed

Jessen, Marie K; Skibsted, Simon; Shapiro, Nathan I

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to validate the association between number of organ dysfunctions and mortality in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection. This study was conducted at two medical care center EDs. The internal validation set was a prospective cohort study conducted in Boston, USA. The external validation set was a retrospective case-control study conducted in Aarhus, Denmark. The study included adult patients (>18 years) with clinically suspected infection. Laboratory results and clinical data were used to assess organ dysfunctions. Inhospital mortality was the outcome measure. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the independent mortality odds for number and types of organ dysfunctions. We enrolled 4952 (internal) and 483 (external) patients. The mortality rate significantly increased with increasing number of organ dysfunctions: internal validation: 0 organ dysfunctions: 0.5% mortality, 1: 3.6%, 2: 9.5%, 3: 17%, and 4 or more: 37%; external validation: 2.2, 6.7, 17, 41, and 57% mortality (both P<0.001 for trend). Age-adjusted and comorbidity-adjusted number of organ dysfunctions remained an independent predictor. The effect of specific types of organ dysfunction on mortality was most pronounced for hematologic [odds ratio (OR) 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-5.4)], metabolic [OR 3.3 (95% CI 2.4-4.6); internal validation], and cardiovascular dysfunctions [OR 14 (95% CI 3.7-50); external validation]. The number of organ dysfunctions predicts sepsis mortality.

Can generic paediatric mortality scores calculated 4 hours after admission be used as inclusion criteria for clinical trials?

PubMed Central

Leteurtre, Stéphane; Leclerc, Francis; Wirth, Jessica; Noizet, Odile; Magnenant, Eric; Sadik, Ahmed; Fourier, Catherine; Cremer, Robin

2004-01-01

Introduction Two generic paediatric mortality scoring systems have been validated in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Paediatric RISk of Mortality (PRISM) requires an observation period of 24 hours, and PRISM III measures severity at two time points (at 12 hours and 24 hours) after admission, which represents a limitation for clinical trials that require earlier inclusion. The Paediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) is calculated 1 hour after admission but does not take into account the stabilization period following admission. To avoid these limitations, we chose to conduct assessments 4 hours after PICU admission. The aim of the present study was to validate PRISM, PRISM III and PIM at the time points for which they were developed, and to compare their accuracy in predicting mortality at those times with their accuracy at 4 hours. Methods All children admitted from June 1998 to May 2000 in one tertiary PICU were prospectively included. Data were collected to generate scores and predictions using PRISM, PRISM III and PIM. Results There were 802 consecutive admissions with 80 deaths. For the time points for which the scores were developed, observed and predicted mortality rates were significantly different for the three scores (P < 0.01) whereas all exhibited good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥0.83). At 4 hours after admission only the PIM had good calibration (P = 0.44), but all three scores exhibited good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥0.82). Conclusions Among the three scores calculated at 4 hours after admission, all had good discriminatory capacity but only the PIM score was well calibrated. Further studies are required before the PIM score at 4 hours can be used as an inclusion criterion in clinical trials. PMID:15312217

Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010–2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

PubMed Central

Piel, Frédéric B.; Hay, Simon I.; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J.; Williams, Thomas N.

2013-01-01

Background The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions. Methods and Findings First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400–398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500–657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900–106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500–200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600–48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100–70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700–59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900–64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800–6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800–14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%–88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions. Conclusions Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23874164

Validation of a Molecular and Pathological Model for Five-Year Mortality Risk in Patients with Early Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Bueno, Raphael; Hughes, Elisha; Wagner, Susanne; Gutin, Alexander S.; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Zheng, Yifan; Archer, Michael A.; Gustafson, Corinne; Jones, Joshua T.; Rushton, Kristen; Saam, Jennifer; Kim, Edward; Barberis, Massimo; Wistuba, Ignacio; Wenstrup, Richard J.; Wallace, William A.; Harrison, David J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: The aim of this study was to validate a molecular expression signature [cell cycle progression (CCP) score] that identifies patients with a higher risk of cancer-related death after surgical resection of early stage (I-II) lung adenocarcinoma in a large patient cohort and evaluate the effectiveness of combining CCP score and pathological stage for predicting lung cancer mortality. Methods: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded surgical tumor samples from 650 patients diagnosed with stage I and II adenocarcinoma who underwent definitive surgical treatment without adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed for 31 proliferation genes by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The prognostic discrimination of the expression score was assessed by Cox proportional hazards analysis using 5-year lung cancer-specific death as primary outcome. Results: The CCP score was a significant predictor of lung cancer-specific mortality above clinical covariates [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46 per interquartile range (95% confidence interval = 1.12–1.90; p = 0.0050)]. The prognostic score, a combination of CCP score and pathological stage, was a more significant indicator of lung cancer mortality risk than pathological stage in the full cohort (HR = 2.01; p = 2.8 × 10−11) and in stage I patients (HR = 1.67; p = 0.00027). Using the 85th percentile of the prognostic score as a threshold, there was a significant difference in lung cancer survival between low-risk and high-risk patient groups (p = 3.8 × 10−7). Conclusions: This study validates the CCP score and the prognostic score as independent predictors of lung cancer death in patients with early stage lung adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone. Patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma and a high prognostic score may be candidates for adjuvant therapy to reduce cancer-related mortality. PMID:25396679

Rural-urban migration and child survival in urban Bangladesh: are the urban migrants and poor disadvantaged?

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul; Azad, Kazi Md Abul Kalam

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the levels and trends of childhood mortality in urban Bangladesh, and examines whether children's survival chances are poorer among the urban migrants and urban poor. It also examines the determinants of child survival in urban Bangladesh. Data come from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. The results indicate that, although the indices of infant and child mortality are consistently better in urban areas, the urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality have diminished in recent years. The study identifies two distinct child morality regimes in urban Bangladesh: one for urban natives and one for rural-urban migrants. Under-five mortality is higher among children born to urban migrants compared with children born to life-long urban natives (102 and 62 per 1000 live births, respectively). The migrant-native mortality differentials more-or-less correspond with the differences in socioeconomic status. Like childhood mortality rates, rural-urban migrants seem to be moderately disadvantaged by economic status compared with their urban native counterparts. Within the urban areas, the child survival status is even worse among the migrant poor than among the average urban poor, especially recent migrants. This poor-non-poor differential in childhood mortality is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The study findings indicate that rapid growth of the urban population in recent years due to rural-to-urban migration, coupled with higher risk of mortality among migrant's children, may be considered as one of the major explanations for slower decline in under-five mortality in urban Bangladesh, thus diminishing urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality in Bangladesh. The study demonstrates that housing conditions and access to safe drinking water and hygienic toilet facilities are the most critical determinants of child survival in urban areas, even after controlling for migration status. The findings of the study may have important policy implications for urban planning, highlighting the need to target migrant groups and the urban poor within urban areas in the provision of health care services.

Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU): protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule.

PubMed

Granholm, Anders; Perner, Anders; Krag, Mette; Hjortrup, Peter Buhl; Haase, Nicolai; Holst, Lars Broksø; Marker, Søren; Collet, Marie Oxenbøll; Jensen, Aksel Karl Georg; Møller, Morten Hylander

2017-03-09

Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores. We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Spatial variations and determinants of infant and under-five mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Gruebner, Oliver; Khan, Mmh; Burkart, Katrin; Lautenbach, Sven; Lakes, Tobia; Krämer, Alexander; Subramanian, S V; Galea, Sandro

2017-09-01

Reducing child mortality is a Sustainable Development Goal yet to be achieved by many low-income countries. We applied a subnational and spatial approach based on publicly available datasets and identified permanent insolvency, urbanicity, and malaria endemicity as factors associated with child mortality. We further detected spatial clusters in the east of Bangladesh and noted Sylhet and Jamalpur as those districts that need immediate attention to reduce child mortality. Our approach is transferable to other regions in comparable settings worldwide and may guide future studies to identify subnational regions in need for public health attention. Our study adds to our understanding where we may intervene to more effectively improve health, particularly among disadvantaged populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

PubMed

Marra, Annachiara; Pandharipande, Pratik P; Shotwell, Matthew S; Chandrasekhar, Rameela; Girard, Timothy D; Shintani, Ayumi K; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karl G M; Dittus, Robert S; Ely, E Wesley; Vasilevskis, Eduard E

2018-03-24

The goal of this study was to develop and validate a dynamic risk model to predict daily changes in acute brain dysfunction (ie, delirium and coma), discharge, and mortality in ICU patients. Using data from a multicenter prospective ICU cohort, a daily acute brain dysfunction-prediction model (ABD-pm) was developed by using multinomial logistic regression that estimated 15 transition probabilities (from one of three brain function states [normal, delirious, or comatose] to one of five possible outcomes [normal, delirious, comatose, ICU discharge, or died]) using baseline and daily risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed by using predictive characteristics such as negative predictive value (NPV). Calibration was assessed by plotting empirical vs model-estimated probabilities. Internal validation was performed by using a bootstrap procedure. Data were analyzed from 810 patients (6,711 daily transitions). The ABD-pm included individual risk factors: mental status, age, preexisting cognitive impairment, baseline and daily severity of illness, and daily administration of sedatives. The model yielded very high NPVs for "next day" delirium (NPV: 0.823), coma (NPV: 0.892), normal cognitive state (NPV: 0.875), ICU discharge (NPV: 0.905), and mortality (NPV: 0.981). The model demonstrated outstanding calibration when predicting the total number of patients expected to be in any given state across predicted risk. We developed and internally validated a dynamic risk model that predicts the daily risk for one of three cognitive states, ICU discharge, or mortality. The ABD-pm may be useful for predicting the proportion of patients for each outcome state across entire ICU populations to guide quality, safety, and care delivery activities. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Addressing inequity to achieve the maternal and child health millennium development goals: looking beyond averages.

PubMed

Ruhago, George M; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Norheim, Ole F

2012-12-27

Inequity in access to and use of child and maternal health interventions is impeding progress towards the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals. This study explores the potential health gains and equity impact if a set of priority interventions for mothers and under fives were scaled up to reach national universal coverage targets for MDGs in Tanzania. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate potential reductions in maternal and child mortality and the number of lives saved across wealth quintiles and between rural and urban settings. High impact maternal and child health interventions were modelled for a five-year scale up, by linking intervention coverage, effectiveness and cause of mortality using data from Tanzania. Concentration curves were drawn and the concentration index estimated to measure the equity impact of the scale up. In the poorest population quintiles in Tanzania, the lives of more than twice as many mothers and under-fives were likely to be saved, compared to the richest quintile. Scaling up coverage to equal levels across quintiles would reduce inequality in maternal and child mortality from a pro rich concentration index of -0.11 (maternal) and -0.12 (children) to a more equitable concentration index of -0,03 and -0.03 respectively. In rural areas, there would likely be an eight times greater reduction in maternal deaths than in urban areas and a five times greater reduction in child deaths than in urban areas. Scaling up priority maternal and child health interventions to equal levels would potentially save far more lives in the poorest populations, and would accelerate equitable progress towards maternal and child health MDGs.

Addressing inequity to achieve the maternal and child health millennium development goals: looking beyond averages

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Inequity in access to and use of child and maternal health interventions is impeding progress towards the maternal and child health Millennium Development Goals. This study explores the potential health gains and equity impact if a set of priority interventions for mothers and under fives were scaled up to reach national universal coverage targets for MDGs in Tanzania. Methods We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate potential reductions in maternal and child mortality and the number of lives saved across wealth quintiles and between rural and urban settings. High impact maternal and child health interventions were modelled for a five-year scale up, by linking intervention coverage, effectiveness and cause of mortality using data from Tanzania. Concentration curves were drawn and the concentration index estimated to measure the equity impact of the scale up. Results In the poorest population quintiles in Tanzania, the lives of more than twice as many mothers and under-fives were likely to be saved, compared to the richest quintile. Scaling up coverage to equal levels across quintiles would reduce inequality in maternal and child mortality from a pro rich concentration index of −0.11 (maternal) and −0.12 (children) to a more equitable concentration index of −0,03 and −0.03 respectively. In rural areas, there would likely be an eight times greater reduction in maternal deaths than in urban areas and a five times greater reduction in child deaths than in urban areas. Conclusions Scaling up priority maternal and child health interventions to equal levels would potentially save far more lives in the poorest populations, and would accelerate equitable progress towards maternal and child health MDGs. PMID:23270489

Health policy for sickle cell disease in Africa: experience from Tanzania on interventions to reduce under-five mortality.

PubMed

Makani, Julie; Soka, Deogratias; Rwezaula, Stella; Krag, Marlene; Mghamba, Janneth; Ramaiya, Kaushik; Cox, Sharon E; Grosse, Scott D

2015-02-01

Tanzania has made considerable progress towards reducing childhood mortality, achieving a 57% decrease between 1980 and 2011. This epidemiological transition will cause a reduction in the contribution of infectious diseases to childhood mortality and increase in contribution from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Haemoglobinopathies are amongst the most common childhood NCDs, with sickle cell disease (SCD) being the commonest haemoglobinopathy in Africa. In Tanzania, 10,313 children with SCD under 5 years of age (U5) are estimated to die every year, contributing an estimated 7% of overall deaths in U5 children. Key policies that governments in Africa are able to implement would reduce mortality in SCD, focusing on newborn screening and comprehensive SCD care programmes. Such programmes would ensure that interventions such as prevention of infections using penicillin plus prompt diagnosis and treatment of complications are provided to all individuals with SCD. © 2014 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simultaneous quantification of five major active components in capsules of the traditional Chinese medicine ‘Shu-Jin-Zhi-Tong’ by high performance liquid chromatography

PubMed Central

Yang, Xing-Xin; Zhang, Xiao-Xia; Chang, Rui-Miao; Wang, Yan-Wei; Li, Xiao-Ni

2011-01-01

A simple and reliable high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method has been developed for the simultaneous quantification of five major bioactive components in ‘Shu-Jin-Zhi-Tong’ capsules (SJZTC), for the purposes of quality control of this commonly prescribed traditional Chinese medicine. Under the optimum conditions, excellent separation was achieved, and the assay was fully validated in terms of linearity, precision, repeatability, stability and accuracy. The validated method was applied successfully to the determination of the five compounds in SJZTC samples from different production batches. The HPLC method can be used as a valid analytical method to evaluate the intrinsic quality of SJZTC. PMID:29403711

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

Validation of the FRAIL scale in Mexican elderly: results from the Mexican Health and Aging Study.

PubMed

Díaz de León González, Enrique; Gutiérrez Hermosillo, Hugo; Martinez Beltran, Jesus Avilio; Chavez, Juan Humberto Medina; Palacios Corona, Rebeca; Salinas Garza, Deborah Patricia; Rodriguez Quintanilla, Karina Alejandra

2016-10-01

The aging population in Latin America is characterized by not optimal conditions for good health, experiencing high burden of comorbidity, which contribute to increase the frequency of frailty; thus, identification should be a priority, to classify patients at high risk to develop its negative consequences. The objective of this analysis was to validate the FRAIL instrument to measure frailty in Mexican elderly population, from the database of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). Prospective, population study in Mexico, that included subjects of 60 years and older who were evaluated for the variables of frailty during the year 2001 (first wave of the study). Frailty was measured with the five-item FRAIL scale (fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and weight loss). The robust, pre-frail or intermediate, and the frail group were considered when they had zero, one, and at least two components, respectively. Mortality, hospitalizations, falls, and functional dependency were evaluated during 2003 (second wave of the study). Relative risk was calculated for each complications, as well as hazard ratio (for mortality) through Cox regression model and odds ratio with logistic regression (for the rest of the outcomes), adjusted for covariates. The state of frailty was independently associated with mortality, hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. The pre-frailty state was only independently associated with hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. Frailty measured through the FRAIL scale, is associated with an increase in the rate of mortality, hospitalizations, dependency in activities of daily life, and falls.

Validation of the peak bilirubin criterion for outcome after partial hepatectomy.

PubMed

van Mierlo, Kim M C; Lodewick, Toine M; Dhar, Dipok K; van Woerden, Victor; Kurstjens, Ralph; Schaap, Frank G; van Dam, Ronald M; Vyas, Soumil; Malagó, Massimo; Dejong, Cornelis H C; Olde Damink, Steven W M

2016-10-01

Postoperative liver failure (PLF) is a dreaded complication after partial hepatectomy. The peak bilirubin criterion (>7.0 mg/dL or ≥120 μmol/L) is used to define PLF. This study aimed to validate the peak bilirubin criterion as postoperative risk indicator for 90-day liver-related mortality. Characteristics of 956 consecutive patients who underwent partial hepatectomy at the Maastricht University Medical Centre or Royal Free London between 2005 and 2012 were analyzed by uni- and multivariable analyses with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Thirty-five patients (3.7%) met the postoperative peak bilirubin criterion at median day 19 with a median bilirubin level of 183 [121-588] μmol/L. Sensitivity and specificity for liver-related mortality after major hepatectomy were 41.2% and 94.6%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 22.6%. Predictors of liver-related mortality were the peak bilirubin criterion (p < 0.001, OR = 15.9 [95%CI 5.2-48.7]), moderate-severe steatosis and fibrosis (p = 0.013, OR = 8.5 [95%CI 1.6-46.6]), ASA 3-4 (p = 0.047, OR = 3.0 [95%CI 1.0-8.8]) and age (p = 0.044, OR = 1.1 [95%CI 1.0-1.1]). The peak bilirubin criterion has a low sensitivity and positive predictive value for 90-day liver-related mortality after major hepatectomy. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

You, Danzhen; Hug, Lucia; Ejdemyr, Simon; Idele, Priscila; Hogan, Daniel; Mathers, Colin; Gerland, Patrick; New, Jin Rou; Alkema, Leontine

2015-12-05

In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030. We updated the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database with 5700 country-year datapoints. As of July, 2015, the database contains about 17 000 country-year datapoints for mortality of children younger than 5 years for 195 countries, and includes all available nationally-representative data from vital registration systems, population censuses, household surveys, and sample registration systems. We used these data to generate estimates, with uncertainty intervals, of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3 model). This model includes a data model to adjust for systematic biases associated with different types of data sources. To provide insights into the global and regional burden of under-5 deaths associated with post-2015 targets, we constructed five scenario-based projections for under-5 mortality from 2016 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality rates up to 2030 for each scenario. The global under-5 mortality rate has fallen from 90·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (90% uncertainty interval 89·3-92·2) in 1990 to 42·5 (40·9-45·6) in 2015. During the same period, the annual number of under-5 deaths worldwide dropped from 12·7 million (12·6 million-13·0 million) to 5·9 million (5·7 million-6·4 million). The global under-5 mortality rate reduced by 53% (50-55%) in the past 25 years and therefore missed the MDG 4 target. Based on point estimates, two regions-east Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean-achieved the MDG 4 target. 62 countries achieved the MDG 4 target, of which 24 were low-income and lower-middle income countries. Between 2016 and 2030, 94·4 million children are projected to die before the age of 5 years if the 2015 mortality rate remains constant in each country, and 68·8 million would die if each country continues to reduce its mortality rate at the pace estimated from 2000 to 2015. If all countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of an under-5 mortality rate of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030, we project 56·0 million deaths by 2030. About two-thirds of all sub-Saharan African countries need to accelerate progress to achieve this target. Despite substantial progress in reducing child mortality, concerted efforts remain necessary to avoid preventable under-5 deaths in the coming years and to accelerate progress in improving child survival further. Urgent actions are needed most in the regions and countries with high under-5 mortality rates, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. None. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Neonatal health in Nepal: analysis of absolute and relative inequalities and impact of current efforts to reduce neonatal mortality

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Nepal has made substantial progress in reducing under-five mortality and is on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4, but advances in neonatal health are less encouraging. The objectives of this study were to assess relative and absolute inequalities in neonatal mortality over time, and to review experience with major programs to promote neonatal health. Methods Using four nationally representative surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, we calculated neonatal mortality rates for Nepal and for population groups based on child sex, geographical and socio-economic variables using a true cohort log probability approach. Inequalities based on different variables and years were assessed using rate differences (rd) and rate ratios (rr); time trends in neonatal mortality were measured using the annual rate of reduction. Through literature searches and expert consultation, information on Nepalese policies and programs implemented since 1990 and directly or indirectly attempting to reduce neonatal mortality was compiled. Data on timeline, coverage and effectiveness were extracted for major programs. Results The annual rate of reduction for neonatal mortality between 1996 and 2011 (2.8 percent per annum) greatly lags behind the achievements in under-five and infant mortality, and varies across population groups. For the year 2011, stark absolute and relative inequalities in neonatal mortality exist in relation to wealth status (rd = 21.4, rr = 2.2); these are less pronounced for other measures of socio-economic status, child sex and urban–rural residence, ecological and development region. Among many efforts to promote child and maternal health, three established programs and two pilot programs emerged as particularly relevant to reducing neonatal mortality. While these were designed based on national and international evidence, information about coverage of different population groups and effectiveness is limited. Conclusion Neonatal mortality varies greatly by socio-demographic variables. This study clearly shows that much remains to be achieved in terms of reducing neonatal mortality across different socio-economic, ethnic and geographical population groups in Nepal. In moving forward it will be important to scale up programs of proven effectiveness, conduct in-depth evaluation of promising new approaches, target unreached and hard-to-reach populations, and maximize use of financial and personnel resources through integration across programs. PMID:24373558

Neonatal health in Nepal: analysis of absolute and relative inequalities and impact of current efforts to reduce neonatal mortality.

PubMed

Paudel, Deepak; Shrestha, Ishwar B; Siebeck, Matthias; Rehfuess, Eva A

2013-12-28

Nepal has made substantial progress in reducing under-five mortality and is on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4, but advances in neonatal health are less encouraging. The objectives of this study were to assess relative and absolute inequalities in neonatal mortality over time, and to review experience with major programs to promote neonatal health. Using four nationally representative surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, we calculated neonatal mortality rates for Nepal and for population groups based on child sex, geographical and socio-economic variables using a true cohort log probability approach. Inequalities based on different variables and years were assessed using rate differences (rd) and rate ratios (rr); time trends in neonatal mortality were measured using the annual rate of reduction. Through literature searches and expert consultation, information on Nepalese policies and programs implemented since 1990 and directly or indirectly attempting to reduce neonatal mortality was compiled. Data on timeline, coverage and effectiveness were extracted for major programs. The annual rate of reduction for neonatal mortality between 1996 and 2011 (2.8 percent per annum) greatly lags behind the achievements in under-five and infant mortality, and varies across population groups. For the year 2011, stark absolute and relative inequalities in neonatal mortality exist in relation to wealth status (rd = 21.4, rr = 2.2); these are less pronounced for other measures of socio-economic status, child sex and urban-rural residence, ecological and development region. Among many efforts to promote child and maternal health, three established programs and two pilot programs emerged as particularly relevant to reducing neonatal mortality. While these were designed based on national and international evidence, information about coverage of different population groups and effectiveness is limited. Neonatal mortality varies greatly by socio-demographic variables. This study clearly shows that much remains to be achieved in terms of reducing neonatal mortality across different socio-economic, ethnic and geographical population groups in Nepal. In moving forward it will be important to scale up programs of proven effectiveness, conduct in-depth evaluation of promising new approaches, target unreached and hard-to-reach populations, and maximize use of financial and personnel resources through integration across programs.

Impact Evaluation of Malaria Control Interventions on Morbidity and All-Cause Child Mortality in Rwanda, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Eckert, Erin; Florey, Lia S; Tongren, Jon Eric; Salgado, S René; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Munguti, Kaendi; Umulisa, Noella; Mulindahabi, Monique; Karema, Corine

2017-09-01

The impressive decline in child mortality that occurred in Rwanda from 1996-2000 to 2006-2010 coincided with a period of rapid increase of malaria control interventions such as indoor residual spraying (IRS); insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and use, and improved malaria case management. The impact of these interventions was examined through ecological correlation analysis, and robust decomposition analysis of contextual factors on all-cause child mortality. Child mortality fell 61% during the evaluation period and prevalence of severe anemia in children 6-23 months declined 71% between 2005 and 2010. These changes in malaria morbidity and mortality occurred concurrently with a substantial increase in vector control activities. ITN use increased among children under five, from 4% to 70%. The IRS program began in 2007 and covered 1.3 million people in the highest burden districts by 2010. At the same time, diagnosis and treatment with an effective antimalarial expanded nationally, and included making services available to children under the age of 5 at the community level. The percentage of children under 5 who sought care for a fever increased from 26% in 2000 to 48% in 2010. Multivariable models of the change in child mortality between 2000 and 2010 using nationally representative data reveal the importance of increasing ITN ownership in explaining the observed mortality declines. Taken as a whole, the evidence supports the conclusion that malaria control interventions contributed to the observed decline in child mortality in Rwanda from 2000 to 2010, even in a context of improving socioeconomic, maternal, and child health conditions.

High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

PubMed

Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

2014-01-01

High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean.

GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

PubMed

González Del Castillo, Juan; Escobar-Curbelo, Luis; Martínez-Ortíz de Zárate, Mikel; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; García-Lamberechts, Jorge; Moreno-Cuervo, Álvaro; Fernández, Cristina; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier

2017-06-01

To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P<0.001) for the GYM score (Glasgow <15; tachYpnea>20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and P<0.001, respectively). The GYM score showed good calibration after bootstrap correction, with an area under the curve of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.605-0.815). The GYM score showed better capacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

77 FR 12009 - Marine Mammals; File No. 16991

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-28

... condition of coastal populations of harbor seals in California, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska over a 5-year... elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) could be disturbed during activities conducted under this permit. The applicant requests up to ten incidental mortalities of harbor seals per year with a five-year...

Influence of family size, household food security status, and child care practices on the nutritional status of under-five children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ajao, K O; Ojofeitimi, E O; Adebayo, A A; Fatusi, A O; Afolabi, O T

2010-12-01

Fertility pattern and reproductive behaviours affect infant death in Nigeria. Household food insecurity and poor care practices also place children at risk of morbidity and mortality. The objectives of this study were to assess the influence of family size, household food security status, and child care practices on the nutritional status of under-five children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. The study employed a descriptive cross-sectional design. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 423 mothers of under-five children and their children in the households selected through multistage sampling methods. Food-insecure households were five times more likely than secure households to have wasted children (crude OR = 5.707, 95 percent CI = 1.31-24.85). Children with less educated mothers were significantly more likely to be stunted. The prevalence of food insecurity among households in Ile-Ife was high. Households with food insecurity and less educated mothers were more likely to have malnourished children.

External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

PubMed Central

Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

2018-01-01

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

Multidimensional Poverty and Child Survival in India

PubMed Central

Mohanty, Sanjay K.

2011-01-01

Background Though the concept of multidimensional poverty has been acknowledged cutting across the disciplines (among economists, public health professionals, development thinkers, social scientists, policy makers and international organizations) and included in the development agenda, its measurement and application are still limited. Objectives and Methodology Using unit data from the National Family and Health Survey 3, India, this paper measures poverty in multidimensional space and examine the linkages of multidimensional poverty with child survival. The multidimensional poverty is measured in the dimension of knowledge, health and wealth and the child survival is measured with respect to infant mortality and under-five mortality. Descriptive statistics, principal component analyses and the life table methods are used in the analyses. Results The estimates of multidimensional poverty are robust and the inter-state differentials are large. While infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate are disproportionately higher among the abject poor compared to the non-poor, there are no significant differences in child survival among educationally, economically and health poor at the national level. State pattern in child survival among the education, economical and health poor are mixed. Conclusion Use of multidimensional poverty measures help to identify abject poor who are unlikely to come out of poverty trap. The child survival is significantly lower among abject poor compared to moderate poor and non-poor. We urge to popularize the concept of multiple deprivations in research and program so as to reduce poverty and inequality in the population. PMID:22046384

NGO-promoted women's credit program, immunization coverage, and child mortality in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Amin, R; Li, Y

1997-01-01

A growing number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are adopting the collateral-free credit programs by anchoring them with their social development programs aimed at improved program effectiveness and sustainability. Drawing upon a sample of 3,564 targeted poor households covered by five small NGOs in rural Bangladesh, this study finds that the NGO credit-members as well as those who reside in the NGO program area are higher adopters of child immunization than those in the non-program area. Similarly, the study found that infant and child mortality is lower among the NGO credit members than among the non-members and that under five-year deaths of children progressively decline with the increase in the doses of vaccines. Implications of these findings are discussed in the study.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Methods Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. Results The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for < 24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. Conclusion This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015. PMID:24649944

Child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: cross-sectional evidence of the effect of geographic location and prolonged conflict from a national household survey.

PubMed

Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Mandungu, Tumwaka P; Mbela, Kisumbula; Nzita, Kikhela P D; Kalambayi, Banza B; Kayembe, Kalambayi P; Emina, Jacques B O

2014-03-20

The child mortality rate is a good indicator of development. High levels of infectious diseases and high child mortality make the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) one of the most challenging environments for health development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Recent conflicts in the eastern part of the country and bad governance have compounded the problem. This study aimed to examine province-level geographic variation in under-five mortality (U5M), accounting for individual- and household-level risk factors including environmental factors such as conflict. Our analysis used the nationally representative cross-sectional household sample of 8,992 children under five in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. In the survey year, 1,005 deaths among this group were observed. Information on U5M was aggregated to the 11 provinces, and a Bayesian geo-additive discrete-time survival mixed model was used to map the geographic distribution of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) at the province level, accounting for observable and unobservable risk factors. The overall U5MR was 159 per 1,000 live births. Significant associations with risk of U5M were found for <24 month birth interval [posterior odds ratio and 95% credible region: 1.14 (1.04, 1.26)], home birth [1.13 (1.01, 1.27)] and living with a single mother [1.16 (1.03, 1.33)]. Striking variation was also noted in the risk of U5M by province of residence, with the highest risk in Kasaï-Oriental, a non-conflict area of the DRC, and the lowest in the conflict area of North Kivu. This study reveals clear geographic patterns in rates of U5M in the DRC and shows the potential role of individual child, household and environmental factors, which are unexplained by the ongoing conflict. The displacement of mothers to safer areas may explain the lower U5MR observed at the epicentre of the conflict in North Kivu, compared with rates in conflict-free areas. Overall, the U5M maps point to a lack of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of reducing U5M by half by 2015.

Screening for oral cancer.

PubMed

Jitender, Solanki; Sarika, Gupta; Varada, Hiremath R; Omprakash, Yadav; Mohsin, Khan

2016-11-01

Oral cancer is considered as a serious health problem resulting in high morbidity and mortality. Early detection and prevention play a key role in controlling the burden of oral cancer worldwide. The five-year survival rate of oral cancer still remains low and delayed diagnosis is considered as one of the major reasons. This increases the demand for oral screening. Currently, screening of oral cancer is largely based on visual examination. Various evidence strongly suggest the validity of visual inspection in reducing mortality in patients at risk for oral cancer. Simple visual examination is accompanied with adjunctive techniques for subjective interpretation of dysplastic changes. These include toluidine blue staining, brush biopsy, chemiluminescence and tissue autofluorescence. This review highlights the efficacy of various diagnostic methods in screening of oral cancer. © 2016 Old City Publishing, Inc.

LiST modelling with monitoring data to estimate impact on child mortality of an ORS and zinc programme with public sector providers in Bihar, India.

PubMed

Ayyanat, Jayachandran A; Harbour, Catherine; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Manjula

2018-01-05

Many interventions have attempted to increase vulnerable and remote populations' access to ORS and zinc to reduce child mortality from diarrhoea. However, the impact of these interventions is difficult to measure. From 2010 to 15, Micronutrient Initiative (MI), worked with the public sector in Bihar, India to enable community health workers to treat and report uncomplicated child diarrhoea with ORS and zinc. We describe how we estimated programme's impact on child mortality with Lives Saved Tool (LiST) modelling and data from MI's management information system (MIS). This study demonstrates that using LiST modelling and MIS data are viable options for evaluating programmes to reduce child mortality. We used MI's programme monitoring data to estimate coverage rates and LiST modelling software to estimate programme impact on child mortality. Four scenarios estimated the effects of different rates of programme scale-up and programme coverage on estimated child mortality by measuring children's lives saved. The programme saved an estimated 806-975 children under-5 who had diarrhoea during five-year project phase. Increasing ORS and zinc coverage rates to 19.8% & 18.3% respectively under public sector coverage with effective treatment would have increased the programme's impact on child mortality and could have achieved the project goal of saving 4200 children's lives during the five-year programme. Programme monitoring data can be used with LiST modelling software to estimate coverage rates and programme impact on child mortality. This modelling approach may cost less and yield estimates sooner than directly measuring programme impact with population-based surveys. However, users must be cautious about relying on modelled estimates of impact and ensure that the programme monitoring data used is complete and precise about the programme aspects that are modelled. Otherwise, LiST may mis-estimate impact on child mortality. Further, LiST software may require modifications to its built-in assumptions to capture programmatic inputs. LiST assumes that mortality rates and cause of death structure change only in response to changes in programme coverage. In Bihar, overall child mortality has decreased and diarrhoea seems to be less lethal than previously, but at present LiST does not adjust its estimates for these sorts of changes.

A novel risk classification system for 30-day mortality in children undergoing surgery

PubMed Central

Walter, Arianne I.; Jones, Tamekia L.; Huang, Eunice Y.; Davis, Robert L.

2018-01-01

A simple, objective and accurate way of grouping children undergoing surgery into clinically relevant risk groups is needed. The purpose of this study, is to develop and validate a preoperative risk classification system for postsurgical 30-day mortality for children undergoing a wide variety of operations. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Project-Pediatric participant use file data for calendar years 2012–2014 was analyzed to determine preoperative variables most associated with death within 30 days of operation (D30). Risk groups were created using classification tree analysis based on these preoperative variables. The resulting risk groups were validated using 2015 data, and applied to neonates and higher risk CPT codes to determine validity in high-risk subpopulations. A five-level risk classification was found to be most accurate. The preoperative need for ventilation, oxygen support, inotropic support, sepsis, the need for emergent surgery and a do not resuscitate order defined non-overlapping groups with observed rates of D30 that vary from 0.075% (Very Low Risk) to 38.6% (Very High Risk). When CPT codes where death was never observed are eliminated or when the system is applied to neonates, the groupings remained predictive of death in an ordinal manner. PMID:29351327

The Effect of Empowerment and Self-Determination on Health Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garces-Ozanne, Arlene; Kalu, Edna Ikechi; Audas, Richard

2016-01-01

There remains a persistent gap in health outcomes between wealthy and poor countries. Basic measures such as life expectancy and infant and under-five mortality remain divergent, with preventable deaths being unacceptably high, despite significant efforts to reduce these disparities. We examine the impact of empowerment, measured by Freedom…

Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

Corruption Kills: Estimating the Global Impact of Corruption on Children Deaths

PubMed Central

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Background Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. Methods The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national “perceived level of corruption” (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. Findings The final multivariable model (adjusted R2 = 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Interpretations Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related. PMID:22073233

Global Burden of Childhood Tuberculosis.

PubMed

Jenkins, Helen E

2016-01-01

In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared tuberculosis (TB) to be responsible for more deaths than any other single infectious disease. The burden of TB among children has frequently been dismissed as relatively low with resulting deaths contributing very little to global under-five all-cause mortality, although without rigorous estimates of these statistics, the burden of childhood TB was, in reality, unknown. Recent work in the area has resulted in a WHO estimate of 1 million new cases of childhood TB in 2014 resulting in 136,000 deaths. Around 3% of these cases likely have multidrug-resistant TB and at least 40,000 are in HIV-infected children. TB is now thought to be a major or contributory cause of many deaths in children under five years old, despite not being recorded as such, and is likely in the top ten causes of global mortality in this age group. In particular, recent work has shown that TB is an under-lying cause of a substantial proportion of pneumonia deaths in TB-endemic countries. Childhood TB should be given higher priority: we need to identify children at greatest risk of TB disease and death and make more use of tools such as active case-finding and preventive therapy. TB is a preventable and treatable disease from which no child should die.

Network advocacy and the emergence of global attention to newborn survival.

PubMed

Shiffman, Jeremy

2016-04-01

Globally 2.9 million babies die each year before reaching 28 days of life. Over the past quarter century, neonatal mortality has declined at a slower pace than post-neonatal under-five mortality: in consequence newborns now comprise 44% of all deaths to children under five years. Despite high numbers of newborn deaths, global organizations and national governments paid little attention to the issue until 2000, and resources, while growing since then, remain inadequate. This study examines the factors behind these patterns of policy attention: the delayed emergence of attention, its sudden appearance in 2000, its growth thereafter, but the dearth of resources to date. Drawing on a framework on global health networks grounded in collective action theory, the study finds that a newborn survival network helped to shift perceptions about the problem's severity and tractability, contributing to the rise of global attention. Its efforts were facilitated by pressure on governments to achieve the child survival Millennium Development Goal and by growing awareness that the neonatal period constituted a growing percentage of under-five mortality, a fact the network publicized. The network's relatively recent emergence, its predominantly technical rather than political composition and strategies, and its inability to date to find a framing of the issue that has convinced national political leaders of the issue's urgency, in part explain the insufficiency of resources. However, since 2010 a number of non-health oriented inter-governmental organizations have begun to pay attention to the issue, and several countries with high neonatal mortality have created national plans, developments which augur well for the future. The study points to two broader implications concerning how neglected global health issues come to attract attention: priority emerges from a confluence of factors, rather than any single cause; and growth in priority may depend on the creation of a broader political coalition that extends beyond the largely technically oriented actors who may first press for attention to a problem. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2015; all rights reserved.

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

PubMed

Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

PubMed

Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

2018-05-01

In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Urbanisation and child health in resource poor settings with special reference to under-five mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Garenne, Michel

2010-06-01

The health of children improved dramatically worldwide during the 20th century, although with major contrasts between developed and developing countries, and urban and rural areas. The quantitative evidence on urban child health from a broad historical and comparative perspective is briefly reviewed here. Before the sanitary revolution, urban mortality tended to be higher than rural mortality. However, after World War I, improvements in water, sanitation, hygiene, nutrition and child care resulted in lower urban child mortality in Europe. Despite a similar mortality decline, urban mortality in developing countries since World War II has been generally lower than rural mortality, probably because of better medical care, higher socio-economic status and better nutrition in urban areas. However, higher urban mortality has recently been seen in the slums of large cities in developing countries as a result of extreme poverty, family disintegration, lack of hygiene, sanitation and medical care, low nutritional status, emerging diseases (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and other health hazards (environmental hazards, accidents, violence). These emerging threats need to be addressed by appropriate policies and programmes.

The Cambridge Prognostic Groups for improved prediction of disease mortality at diagnosis in primary non-metastatic prostate cancer: a validation study.

PubMed

Gnanapragasam, V J; Bratt, O; Muir, K; Lee, L S; Huang, H H; Stattin, P; Lophatananon, A

2018-02-28

The purpose of this study is to validate a new five-tiered prognostic classification system to better discriminate cancer-specific mortality in men diagnosed with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer. We applied a recently described five-strata model, the Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPGs 1-5), in two international cohorts and tested prognostic performance against the current standard three-strata classification of low-, intermediate- or high-risk disease. Diagnostic clinico-pathological data for men obtained from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) and the Singapore Health Study were used. The main outcome measure was prostate cancer mortality (PCM) stratified by age group and treatment modality. The PCBaSe cohort included 72,337 men, of whom 7162 died of prostate cancer. The CPG model successfully classified men with different risks of PCM with competing risk regression confirming significant intergroup distinction (p < 0.0001). The CPGs were significantly better at stratified prediction of PCM compared to the current three-tiered system (concordance index (C-index) 0.81 vs. 0.77, p < 0.0001). This superiority was maintained for every age group division (p < 0.0001). Also in the ethnically different Singapore cohort of 2550 men with 142 prostate cancer deaths, the CPG model outperformed the three strata categories (C-index 0.79 vs. 0.76, p < 0.0001). The model also retained superior prognostic discrimination in the treatment sub-groups: radical prostatectomy (n = 20,586), C-index 0.77 vs. 074; radiotherapy (n = 11,872), C-index 0.73 vs. 0.69; and conservative management (n = 14,950), C-index 0.74 vs. 0.73. The CPG groups that sub-divided the old intermediate-risk (CPG2 vs. CPG3) and high-risk categories (CPG4 vs. CPG5) significantly discriminated PCM outcomes after radical therapy or conservative management (p < 0.0001). This validation study of nearly 75,000 men confirms that the CPG five-tiered prognostic model has superior discrimination compared to the three-tiered model in predicting prostate cancer death across different age and treatment groups. Crucially, it identifies distinct sub-groups of men within the old intermediate-risk and high-risk criteria who have very different prognostic outcomes. We therefore propose adoption of the CPG model as a simple-to-use but more accurate prognostic stratification tool to help guide management for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.

Impact Evaluation of Malaria Control Interventions on Morbidity and All-Cause Child Mortality in Rwanda, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Eckert, Erin; Florey, Lia S.; Tongren, Jon Eric; Salgado, S. René; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Hakizimana, Emmanuel; Munguti, Kaendi; Umulisa, Noella; Mulindahabi, Monique; Karema, Corine

2017-01-01

Abstract. The impressive decline in child mortality that occurred in Rwanda from 1996–2000 to 2006–2010 coincided with a period of rapid increase of malaria control interventions such as indoor residual spraying (IRS); insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and use, and improved malaria case management. The impact of these interventions was examined through ecological correlation analysis, and robust decomposition analysis of contextual factors on all-cause child mortality. Child mortality fell 61% during the evaluation period and prevalence of severe anemia in children 6–23 months declined 71% between 2005 and 2010. These changes in malaria morbidity and mortality occurred concurrently with a substantial increase in vector control activities. ITN use increased among children under five, from 4% to 70%. The IRS program began in 2007 and covered 1.3 million people in the highest burden districts by 2010. At the same time, diagnosis and treatment with an effective antimalarial expanded nationally, and included making services available to children under the age of 5 at the community level. The percentage of children under 5 who sought care for a fever increased from 26% in 2000 to 48% in 2010. Multivariable models of the change in child mortality between 2000 and 2010 using nationally representative data reveal the importance of increasing ITN ownership in explaining the observed mortality declines. Taken as a whole, the evidence supports the conclusion that malaria control interventions contributed to the observed decline in child mortality in Rwanda from 2000 to 2010, even in a context of improving socioeconomic, maternal, and child health conditions. PMID:28990918

Brief report: How short is too short? An ultra-brief measure of the big-five personality domains implicates "agreeableness" as a risk for all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin P; Elliot, Ari J

2017-08-01

Controversy exists over the use of brief Big Five scales in health studies. We investigated links between an ultra-brief measure, the Big Five Inventory-10, and mortality in the General Social Survey. The Agreeableness scale was associated with elevated mortality risk (hazard ratio = 1.26, p = .017). This effect was attributable to the reversed-scored item "Tends to find fault with others," so that greater fault-finding predicted lower mortality risk. The Conscientiousness scale approached meta-analytic estimates, which were not precise enough for significance. Those seeking Big Five measurement in health studies should be aware that the Big Five Inventory-10 may yield unusual results.

Surrogate screening models for the low physical activity criterion of frailty.

PubMed

Eckel, Sandrah P; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Chaves, Paulo H M; Fried, Linda P; Louis, Thomas A

2011-06-01

Low physical activity, one of five criteria in a validated clinical phenotype of frailty, is assessed by a standardized, semiquantitative questionnaire on up to 20 leisure time activities. Because of the time demanded to collect the interview data, it has been challenging to translate to studies other than the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), for which it was developed. Considering subsets of activities, we identified and evaluated streamlined surrogate assessment methods and compared them to one implemented in the Women's Health and Aging Study (WHAS). Using data on men and women ages 65 and older from the CHS, we applied logistic regression models to rank activities by "relative influence" in predicting low physical activity.We considered subsets of the most influential activities as inputs to potential surrogate models (logistic regressions). We evaluated predictive accuracy and predictive validity using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves and assessed criterion validity using proportional hazards models relating frailty status (defined using the surrogate) to mortality. Walking for exercise and moderately strenuous household chores were highly influential for both genders. Women required fewer activities than men for accurate classification. The WHAS model (8 CHS activities) was an effective surrogate, but a surrogate using 6 activities (walking, chores, gardening, general exercise, mowing and golfing) was also highly predictive. We recommend a 6 activity questionnaire to assess physical activity for men and women. If efficiency is essential and the study involves only women, fewer activities can be included.

Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for in-hospital mortality in adults poisoned with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents

PubMed Central

Lionte, Catalina; Sorodoc, Victorita; Jaba, Elisabeta; Botezat, Alina

2017-01-01

Abstract Acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents represents an important challenge in the emergency department (ED). The objective is to create and validate a risk-prediction nomogram for use in the ED to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in adults from acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents. This was a prospective cohort study involving adults with acute poisoning from drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents admitted to a tertiary referral center for toxicology between January and December 2015 (derivation cohort) and between January and June 2016 (validation cohort). We used a program to generate nomograms based on binary logistic regression predictive models. We included variables that had significant associations with death. Using regression coefficients, we calculated scores for each variable, and estimated the event probability. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy and using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. The nomogram was tested on a separate validation cohort using ROC analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Data from 315 patients aged 18 to 91 years were analyzed (n = 180 in the derivation cohort; n = 135 in the validation cohort). In the final model, the following variables were significantly associated with mortality: age, laboratory test results (lactate, potassium, MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase), electrocardiogram parameters (QTc interval), and echocardiography findings (E wave velocity deceleration time). Sex was also included to use the same model for men and women. The resulting nomogram showed excellent survival/mortality discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.976, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.954–0.998, P < 0.0001 for the derivation cohort; AUC 0.957, 95% CI 0.892–1, P < 0.0001 for the validation cohort). This nomogram provides more precise, rapid, and simple risk-analysis information for individual patients acutely exposed to drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents, and accurately estimates the probability of in-hospital death, exclusively using the results of objective tests available in the ED. PMID:28328838

The role of social relationships in the link between olfactory dysfunction and mortality.

PubMed

Leschak, Carrianne J; Eisenberger, Naomi I

2018-01-01

Recent work suggests that olfactory dysfunction is a strong predictor of five-year mortality in older adults. Based on past work showing: 1) that olfactory dysfunction impairs social functioning and 2) that social ties are linked with mortality, the current work explored whether impairments in social life mediated the relationship between olfactory dysfunction and mortality. Additionally, based on work showing gender differences in the social consequences of olfactory dysfunction, gender was assessed as a potential moderator of this association. Social network size mediated the olfactory-mortality link for females. To probe what feature of social networks was driving this effect, we investigated two subcomponents of social life: emotional closeness (e.g., perceived social support, loneliness) and physical closeness (e.g., physical contact, in-person socializing with others). Physical closeness significantly mediated the olfactory-mortality link for females, even after controlling for social network size. Emotional closeness did not mediate this link. Possible mechanisms underlying this relationship are discussed.

Lung Cancer Survival Prediction using Ensemble Data Mining on Seer Data

DOE PAGES

Agrawal, Ankit; Misra, Sanchit; Narayanan, Ramanathan; ...

2012-01-01

We analyze the lung cancer data available from the SEER program with the aim of developing accurate survival prediction models for lung cancer. Carefully designed preprocessing steps resulted in removal/modification/splitting of several attributes, and 2 of the 11 derived attributes were found to have significant predictive power. Several supervised classification methods were used on the preprocessed data along with various data mining optimizations and validations. In our experiments, ensemble voting of five decision tree based classifiers and meta-classifiers was found to result in the best prediction performance in terms of accuracy and area under the ROC curve. We have developedmore » an on-line lung cancer outcome calculator for estimating the risk of mortality after 6 months, 9 months, 1 year, 2 year and 5 years of diagnosis, for which a smaller non-redundant subset of 13 attributes was carefully selected using attribute selection techniques, while trying to retain the predictive power of the original set of attributes. Further, ensemble voting models were also created for predicting conditional survival outcome for lung cancer (estimating risk of mortality after 5 years of diagnosis, given that the patient has already survived for a period of time), and included in the calculator. The on-line lung cancer outcome calculator developed as a result of this study is available at http://info.eecs.northwestern.edu:8080/LungCancerOutcomeCalculator/.« less

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

Development of a novel score for the prediction of hospital mortality in patients with severe sepsis: the use of electronic healthcare records with LASSO regression.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Hong, Yucai

2017-07-25

There are several disease severity scores being used for the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients. However, none of them was developed and validated specifically for patients with severe sepsis. The present study aimed to develop a novel prediction score for severe sepsis. A total of 3206 patients with severe sepsis were enrolled, including 1054 non-survivors and 2152 survivors. The LASSO score showed the best discrimination (area under curve: 0.772; 95% confidence interval: 0.735-0.810) in the validation cohort as compared with other scores such as simplified acute physiology score II, acute physiological score III, Logistic organ dysfunction system, sequential organ failure assessment score, and Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score. The calibration slope was 0.889 and Brier value was 0.173. The study employed a single center database called Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III) MIMIC-III for analysis. Severe sepsis was defined as infection and acute organ dysfunction. Clinical and laboratory variables used in clinical routines were included for screening. Subjects without missing values were included, and the whole dataset was split into training and validation cohorts. The score was coined LASSO score because variable selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique. Finally, the LASSO score was evaluated for its discrimination and calibration in the validation cohort. The study developed the LASSO score for mortality prediction in patients with severe sepsis. Although the score had good discrimination and calibration in a randomly selected subsample, external validations are still required.

Mobility stress test approach to predicting frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults.

PubMed

Verghese, Joe; Holtzer, Roee; Lipton, Richard B; Wang, Cuiling

2012-10-01

To examine the validity of the Walking While Talking Test (WWT), a mobility stress test, to predict frailty, disability, and death in high-functioning older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community sample. Six hundred thirty-one community-residing adults aged 70 and older participating in the Einstein Aging Study (mean follow-up 32 months). High-functioning status at baseline was defined as absence of disability and dementia and normal walking speeds. Hazard ratios (HRs) for frailty, disability, and all-cause mortality. Frailty was defined as presence of three out of the following five attributes: weight loss, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity, and slow gait. The predictive validity of the WWT was also compared with that of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) for study outcomes. Two hundred eighteen participants developed frailty, 88 developed disability, and 49 died. Each 10-cm/s decrease in WWT speed was associated with greater risk of frailty (HR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.18), disability (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23), and mortality (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01-1.27). Most associations remained robust even after accounting for potential confounders and gait speed. Comparisons of HRs and model fit suggest that the WWT may better predict frailty whereas SPPB may better predict disability. Mobility stress tests such as the WWT are robust predictors of risk of frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Validation of the FRAIL scale in Mexican elderly: results from the Mexican Health and Aging Study

PubMed Central

Díaz de León González, Enrique; Gutiérrez Hermosillo, Hugo; Martinez Beltran, Jesus Avilio; Medina Chavez, Juan Humberto; Palacios Corona, Rebeca; Salinas Garza, Deborah Patricia; Rodriguez Quintanilla, Karina Alejandra

2016-01-01

Background The aging population in Latin America is characterized by not optimal conditions for good health, experiencing high burden of comorbidity, which contribute to increase the frequency of frailty; thus, identification should be a priority, to classify patients at high risk to develop its negative consequences. Aim The objective of this analysis was to validate the FRAIL instrument to measure frailty in Mexican elderly population, from the database of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). Materials and methods Prospective, population study in Mexico, that included subjects of 60 years and older who were evaluated for the variables of frailty during the year 2001 (first wave of the study). Frailty was measured with the five-item FRAIL scale (fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and weight loss). The robust, pre-frail or intermediate, and the frail group were considered when they had zero, one, and at least two components, respectively. Mortality, hospitalizations, falls, and functional dependency were evaluated during 2003 (second wave of the study). Relative risk was calculated for each complications, as well as hazard ratio (for mortality) through Cox regression model and odds ratio with logistic regression (for the rest of the outcomes), adjusted for covariates. Results The state of frailty was independently associated with mortality, hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. The pre-frailty state was only independently associated with hospitalizations, functional dependency, and falls. Conclusions Frailty measured through the FRAIL scale, is associated with an increase in the rate of mortality, hospitalizations, dependency in activities of daily life, and falls. PMID:26646253

Geriatric Fever Score: a new decision rule for geriatric care.

PubMed

Chung, Min-Hsien; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Vong, Si-Chon; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Chen, Kuo-Tai; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Su, Shih-Bin; Guo, How-Ran; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2014-01-01

Evaluating geriatric patients with fever is time-consuming and challenging. We investigated independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever and developed a prediction rule for emergency care, critical care, and geriatric care physicians to classify patients into mortality risk and disposition groups. Consecutive geriatric patients (≥65 years old) visiting the emergency department (ED) of a university-affiliated medical center between June 1 and July 21, 2010, were enrolled when they met the criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. Thirty-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Internal validation with bootstrap re-sampling was done. Three hundred thirty geriatric patients were enrolled. We found three independent mortality predictors: Leukocytosis (WBC >12,000 cells/mm3), Severe coma (GCS ≤ 8), and Thrombocytopenia (platelets <150 10(3)/mm3) (LST). After assigning weights to each predictor, we developed a Geriatric Fever Score that stratifies patients into two mortality-risk and disposition groups: low (4.0%) (95% CI: 2.3-6.9%): a general ward or treatment in the ED then discharge and high (30.3%) (95% CI: 17.4-47.3%): consider the intensive care unit. The area under the curve for the rule was 0.73. We found that the Geriatric Fever Score is a simple and rapid rule for predicting 30-day mortality and classifying mortality risk and disposition in geriatric patients with fever, although external validation should be performed to confirm its usefulness in other clinical settings. It might help preserve medical resources for patients in greater need.

Validation of the modified Ranson versus Glasgow score for pancreatitis in a Singaporean population.

PubMed

Tan, Yong Hui Alvin; Rafi, Shumaila; Tyebally Fang, Mirriam; Hwang, Stephen; Lim, Ee Wen; Ngu, James; Tan, Su-Ming

2017-09-01

The characteristics of patients with acute pancreatitis in multi-ethnic Singapore differ from that of the populations used in formulating the modified Ranson and Glasgow scores. The use of these scoring systems has not previously been validated in the Singaporean setting. This study aims to validate and compare the prognostic use of the modified Ranson and Glasgow scores, and to determine the superiority of one score over the other in predicting the outcome for acute pancreatitis in the Singaporean population. This is a 3-year retrospective study of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis at our centre. Patients with chronic pancreatitis, acute on chronic pancreatitis, iatrogenic pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer as well as those with incomplete Ranson or Glasgow scores were excluded from the study. Case notes and computer records were reviewed for local complications of pancreatitis and organ failure. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of the Ranson and Glasgow scores were plotted for the prediction of severity and mortality. Between January 2010 and December 2012, 230 cases were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. A majority of the patients had mild pancreatitis (n = 194, 84.3%), and the overall 30-day mortality rate was 3.5% (n = 8). ROC of the Ranson and Glasgow scoring systems for mortality showed an area under curve (AUC) of 0.854 (P = 0.001) and 0.776 (P = 0.008), respectively. For severity, the AUC for the modified Ranson and Glasgow score was calculated to be 0.694 and 0.668, respectively. The ROC curves of Ranson and Glasgow scores for mortality are comparable with that published in earlier studies. In a Singaporean population, the Ranson score is more accurate in the prediction of mortality. However, both scoring systems are poor predictors for severity of acute pancreatitis. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Procalcitonin decrease over 72 hours in US critical care units predicts fatal outcome in sepsis patients

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Close monitoring and repeated risk assessment of sepsis patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is important for decisions regarding care intensification or early discharge to the ward. We studied whether considering plasma kinetics of procalcitonin, a biomarker of systemic bacterial infection, over the first 72 critical care hours improved mortality prognostication of septic patients from two US settings. Methods This retrospective analysis included consecutively treated eligible adults with a diagnosis of sepsis from critical care units in two independent institutions in Clearwater, FL and Chicago, IL. Cohorts were used for derivation or validation to study the association between procalcitonin change over the first 72 critical care hours and mortality. Results ICU/in-hospital mortality rates were 29.2%/31.8% in the derivation cohort (n = 154) and 17.6%/29.4% in the validation cohort (n = 102). In logistic regression analysis of both cohorts, procalcitonin change was strongly associated with ICU and in-hospital mortality independent of clinical risk scores (Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation IV or Simplified Acute Physiology Score II), with area under the curve (AUC) from 0.67 to 0.71. When procalcitonin decreased by at least 80%, the negative predictive value for ICU/in-hospital mortality was 90%/90% in the derivation cohort, and 91%/79% in the validation cohort. When procalcitonin showed no decrease or increased, the respective positive predictive values were 48%/48% and 36%/52%. Discussion In septic patients, procalcitonin kinetics over the first 72 critical care hours provide prognostic information beyond that available from clinical risk scores. If these observations are confirmed, procalcitonin monitoring may assist physician decision-making regarding care intensification or early transfer from the ICU to the floor. PMID:23787145

Child Health and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arifeen, Shams El

2008-01-01

Bangladesh is currently one of the very few countries in the world, which is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 relating to child mortality. There have been very rapid reductions in mortality, especially in recent years and among children aged over one month. However, this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may impede the achievement of MDG 4. Neonatal deaths now contribute substantially (57%) to overall mortality of children aged less than five years, and reductions in neonatal mortality are difficult to achieve and have been slow in Bangladesh. There are some interesting attributes of the mortality decline in Bangladesh. Mortality has declined faster among girls than among boys, but the poorest have not benefited from the reduction in mortality. There has also been a relative absence of a decline in mortality in urban areas. The age and cause of death pattern of under-five mortality indicate certain interventions that need to be scaled up rapidly and reach high coverage to achieve MDG 4 in Bangladesh. These include skilled attendance at delivery, postnatal care for the newborn, appropriate feeding of the young infant and child, and prevention and management of childhood infections. The latest (2007) Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey shows that Bangladesh has made sustained and remarkable progress in many areas of child health. More than 80% of children are receiving all vaccines. The use of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea is high, and the coverage of vitamin A among children aged 9-59 months has been consistently increasing. However, poor quality of care, misperceptions regarding the need for care, and other social barriers contribute to low levels of care-seeking for illnesses of the newborns and children. Improvements in the health system are essential for removing these barriers, as are effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information. Finally, there are substantial health-system challenges relating to the design and implementation, at scale, of interventions to reduce neonatal mortality. PMID:18831224

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival without New Morbidity from Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T.; Clark, Amy E.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L.; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E.; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J. Michael

2015-01-01

Objective Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011 to April 7, 2013. Setting and Patients General and cardiac/cardiovascular pediatric intensive care units at 7 sites. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale (FSS), and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from pre-illness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range 2.6% to 7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range 1.3% – 5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p<0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the PRISM III score) in dichotomous (survival, death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing PRISM III scores and then decreased at the highest PRISM III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline FSS and the PRISM III score. The three-level goodness of fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p>0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface (VUS) was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (versus chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. Conclusions New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies, and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality. PMID:25985385

Validation of verbal autopsy: determination of cause of deaths in Malaysia 2013.

PubMed

Ganapathy, Shubash Shander; Yi Yi, Khoo; Omar, Mohd Azahadi; Anuar, Mohamad Fuad Mohamad; Jeevananthan, Chandrika; Rao, Chalapati

2017-08-11

Mortality statistics by age, sex and cause are the foundation of basic health data required for health status assessment, epidemiological research and formation of health policy. Close to half the deaths in Malaysia occur outside a health facility, are not attended by medical personnel, and are given a lay opinion as to the cause of death, leading to poor quality of data from vital registration. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a very useful tool in diagnosing broad causes of deaths for events that occur outside health facilities. This article reports the development of the VA methods and our principal finding from a validation study. A cross sectional study on nationally representative sample deaths that occurred in Malaysia during 2013 was used. A VA questionnaire suitable for local use was developed. Trained field interviewers visited the family members of the deceased at their homes and conducted face to face interviews with the next of kin. Completed questionnaires were reviewed by trained physicians who assigned multiple and underlying causes. Reference diagnoses for validation were obtained from review of medical records (MR) available for a sample of the overall study deaths. Corresponding MR diagnosis with matched sample of the VA diagnosis were available in 2172 cases for the validation study. Sensitivity scores were good (>75%) for transport accidents and certain cancers. Moderate sensitivity (50% - 75%) was obtained for ischaemic heart disease (64%) and cerebrovascular disease (72%). The validation sample for deaths due to major causes such as ischaemic heart disease, pneumonia, breast cancer and transport accidents show low cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) changes. The scores obtained for the top 10 leading site-specific cancers ranged from average to good. We can conclude that VA is suitable for implementation for deaths outside the health facilities in Malaysia. This would reduce ill-defined mortality causes in vital registration data, and yield more accurate national mortality statistics.

Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival Without New Morbidity From Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment.

PubMed

Pollack, Murray M; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T; Clark, Amy E; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J L; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J Michael

2015-08-01

Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. General and cardiac/cardiovascular PICUs at seven sites. Randomly selected PICU patients from their first PICU admission. None. Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from preillness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range, 2.6-7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with physiological instability (measured with the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score) in dichotomous (survival and death) and trichotomous (survival without new morbidity, survival with new morbidity, and death) models without covariate adjustments. Morbidity risk increased with increasing Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores and then decreased at the highest Pediatric Risk of Mortality III values as potential morbidities became mortalities. The trichotomous model with covariate adjustments included age, admission source, diagnostic factors, baseline Functional Status Scale, and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score. The three-level goodness-of-fit test indicated satisfactory performance for the derivation and validation sets (p > 0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (vs chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality.

What is the optimal rate of caesarean section at population level? A systematic review of ecologic studies.

PubMed

Betran, Ana Pilar; Torloni, Maria Regina; Zhang, Jun; Ye, Jiangfeng; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Deneux-Tharaux, Catherine; Oladapo, Olufemi Taiwo; Souza, João Paulo; Tunçalp, Özge; Vogel, Joshua Peter; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin

2015-06-21

In 1985, WHO stated that there was no justification for caesarean section (CS) rates higher than 10-15% at population-level. While the CS rates worldwide have continued to increase in an unprecedented manner over the subsequent three decades, concern has been raised about the validity of the 1985 landmark statement. We conducted a systematic review to identify, critically appraise and synthesize the analyses of the ecologic association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal and infant outcomes. Four electronic databases were searched for ecologic studies published between 2000 and 2014 that analysed the possible association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal or infant mortality or morbidity. Two reviewers performed study selection, data extraction and quality assessment independently. We identified 11,832 unique citations and eight studies were included in the review. Seven studies correlated CS rates with maternal mortality, five with neonatal mortality, four with infant mortality, two with LBW and one with stillbirths. Except for one, all studies were cross-sectional in design and five were global analyses of national-level CS rates versus mortality outcomes. Although the overall quality of the studies was acceptable; only two studies controlled for socio-economic factors and none controlled for clinical or demographic characteristics of the population. In unadjusted analyses, authors found a strong inverse relationship between CS rates and the mortality outcomes so that maternal, neonatal and infant mortality decrease as CS rates increase up to a certain threshold. In the eight studies included in this review, this threshold was at CS rates between 9 and 16%. However, in the two studies that adjusted for socio-economic factors, this relationship was either weakened or disappeared after controlling for these confounders. CS rates above the threshold of 9-16% were not associated with decreases in mortality outcomes regardless of adjustments. Our findings could be interpreted to mean that at CS rates below this threshold, socio-economic development may be driving the ecologic association between CS rates and mortality. On the other hand, at rates higher than this threshold, there is no association between CS and mortality outcomes regardless of adjustment. The ecological association between CS rates and relevant morbidity outcomes needs to be evaluated before drawing more definite conclusions at population level.

Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

2015-01-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

Endotoxemia and mortality prediction in ICU and other settings: underlying risk and co-detection of gram negative bacteremia are confounders

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction The interdependence between endotoxemia, gram negative (GN) bacteremia and mortality has been extensively studied. Underlying patient risk and GN bacteremia types are possible confounders of the relationship. Methods Published studies with ≥10 patients in either ICU or non-ICU settings, endotoxemia detection by limulus assay, reporting mortality proportions and ≥1 GN bacteremia were included. Summary odds ratios (OR) for mortality were derived across all studies by meta-analysis for the following contrasts: sub-groups with either endotoxemia (group three), GN bacteremia (group two) or both (group one) each versus the group with neither detected (group four; reference group). The mortality proportion for group four is the proxy measure of study level risk within L'Abbé plots. Results Thirty-five studies were found. Among nine studies in an ICU setting, the OR for mortality was borderline (OR <2) or non-significantly increased for groups two (GN bacteremia alone) and three (endotoxemia alone) and patient group one (GN bacteremia and endotoxemia co-detected) each versus patient group four (neither endotoxemia nor GN bacteremia detected). The ORs were markedly higher for group one versus group four (OR 6.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.4 -to 11.0 when derived from non-ICU studies. The distributions of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli bacteremias among groups one versus two are significantly unequal. Conclusions The co-detection of GN bacteremia and endotoxemia is predictive of increased mortality risk versus the detection of neither but only in studies undertaken in a non-ICU setting. Variation in GN bacteremia species types and underlying risk are likely unrecognized confounders in the individual studies. PMID:22871090

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry G; Achia, Thomas N O

2015-10-01

Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Validation of suicide and self-harm records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

PubMed Central

Thomas, Kyla H; Davies, Neil; Metcalfe, Chris; Windmeijer, Frank; Martin, Richard M; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Aims The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) is increasingly being used to investigate suicide-related adverse drug reactions. No studies have comprehensively validated the recording of suicide and nonfatal self-harm in the CPRD. We validated general practitioners' recording of these outcomes using linked Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) admission data. Methods We identified cases of suicide and self-harm recorded using appropriate Read codes in the CPRD between 1998 and 2010 in patients aged ≥15 years. Suicides were defined as patients with Read codes for suicide recorded within 95 days of their death. International Classification of Diseases codes were used to identify suicides/hospital admissions for self-harm in the linked ONS and HES data sets. We compared CPRD-derived cases/incidence of suicide and self-harm with those identified from linked ONS mortality and HES data, national suicide incidence rates and published self-harm incidence data. Results Only 26.1% (n = 590) of the ‘true’ (ONS-confirmed) suicides were identified using Read codes. Furthermore, only 55.5% of Read code-identified suicides were confirmed as suicide by the ONS data. Of the HES-identified cases of self-harm, 68.4% were identified in the CPRD using Read codes. The CPRD self-harm rates based on Read codes had similar age and sex distributions to rates observed in self-harm hospital registers, although rates were underestimated in all age groups. Conclusions The CPRD recording of suicide using Read codes is unreliable, with significant inaccuracy (over- and under-reporting). Future CPRD suicide studies should use linked ONS mortality data. The under-reporting of self-harm appears to be less marked. PMID:23216533

One-Year Mortality in Older Patients with Cancer: Development and External Validation of an MNA-Based Prognostic Score.

PubMed

Bourdel-Marchasson, Isabelle; Diallo, Abou; Bellera, Carine; Blanc-Bisson, Christelle; Durrieu, Jessica; Germain, Christine; Mathoulin-Pélissier, Simone; Soubeyran, Pierre; Rainfray, Muriel; Fonck, Mariane; Doussau, Adelaïde

2016-01-01

The MNA (Mini Nutritional Assessment) is known as a prognosis factor in older population. We analyzed the prognostic value for one-year mortality of MNA items in older patients with cancer treated with chemotherapy as the basis of a simplified prognostic score. The prospective derivation cohort included 606 patients older than 70 years with an indication of chemotherapy for cancers. The endpoint to predict was one-year mortality. The 18 items of the Full MNA, age, gender, weight loss, cancer origin, TNM, performance status and lymphocyte count were considered to construct the prognostic model. MNA items were analyzed with a backward step-by-step multivariate logistic regression and other items were added in a forward step-by-step regression. External validation was performed on an independent cohort of 229 patients. At one year 266 deaths had occurred. Decreased dietary intake (p = 0.0002), decreased protein-rich food intake (p = 0.025), 3 or more prescribed drugs (p = 0.023), calf circumference <31 cm (p = 0.0002), tumor origin (p<0.0001), metastatic status (p = 0.0007) and lymphocyte count <1500/mm3 (0.029) were found to be associated with 1-year mortality in the final model and were used to construct a prognostic score. The area under curve (AUC) of the score was 0.793, which was higher than the Full MNA AUC (0.706). The AUC of the score in validation cohort (229 subjects, 137 deaths) was 0.698. Key predictors of one-year mortality included cancer cachexia clinical features, comorbidities, the origin and the advanced status of the tumor. The prognostic value of this model combining a subset of MNA items and cancer related items was better than the full MNA, thus providing a simple score to predict 1-year mortality in older patients with an indication of chemotherapy.

Predicting survival in patients receiving continuous flow left ventricular assist devices: the HeartMate II risk score.

PubMed

Cowger, Jennifer; Sundareswaran, Kartik; Rogers, Joseph G; Park, Soon J; Pagani, Francis D; Bhat, Geetha; Jaski, Brian; Farrar, David J; Slaughter, Mark S

2013-01-22

The aim of this study was to derive and validate a model to predict survival in candidates for HeartMate II (HMII) (Thoratec, Pleasanton, California) left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support. LVAD mortality risk prediction is important for candidate selection and communicating expectations to patients and clinicians. With the evolution of LVAD support, prior risk prediction models have become less valid. Patients enrolled into the HMII bridge to transplantation and destination therapy trials (N = 1,122) were randomly divided into derivation (DC) (n = 583) and validation cohorts (VC) (n = 539). Pre-operative candidate predictors of 90-day mortality were examined in the DC with logistic regression, from which the HMII Risk Score (HMRS) was derived. The HMRS was then applied to the VC. There were 149 (13%) deaths within 90 days. In the DC, mortality (n = 80) was higher in older patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 to 1.7 per 10 years), those with greater hypoalbuminemia (OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.76 per mg/dl of albumin), renal dysfunction (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4 to 3.2 per mg/dl creatinine), coagulopathy (OR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.7 to 5.8 per international normalized ratio unit), and in those receiving LVAD support at less experienced centers (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2 to 4.4 for <15 trial patients). Mortality in the DC low, medium, and high HMRS groups was 4%, 16%, and 29%, respectively (p < 0.001). In the VC, corresponding mortality was 8%, 11%, and 25%, respectively (p < 0.001). HMRS discrimination was good (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.75). The HMRS might be useful for mortality risk stratification in HMII candidates and may serve as an additional tool in the patient selection process. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences. PMID:24949231

Measles control strategies in India: position paper of Indian Academy of Pediatrics.

PubMed

Vashishtha, V M; Choudhury, P; Bansal, C P; Gupta, S G

2013-06-08

Measles continues to be a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in India. Recent studies estimate that 80,000 Indian children die each year due to measles and its complications, amounting to 4% of under-5 deaths. Immunization against measles directly contributes to the reduction of under five child mortality and hence to the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4). The live attenuated measles vaccines are safe, effective and provide long lasting protection. The key strategies being followed globally for measles mortality reduction are high coverage of measles first dose, sensitive laboratory supported surveillance, appropriate case management, and providing second dose of measles vaccine. Prior to 2010, India was the only country in the world that had not introduced a second dose of measles vaccine in its National immunization program. We herein discuss the current status of measles vaccination along with the rationale and challenges of providing a second opportunity for measles vaccination, and the principles of measles catch-up campaigns.

The incremental value of troponin biomarkers in risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes: is the relationship multiplicative?

PubMed

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-05-20

To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score.

The Incremental Value of Troponin Biomarkers in Risk Stratification of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Is the Relationship Multiplicative?

PubMed Central

Amin, Amit P; Nathan, Sandeep; Vassallo, Patricia; Calvin, James E

2009-01-01

Structured Abstract Objective: To emphasize the importance of troponin in the context of a new score for risk stratifying acute coronary syndromes (ACS) patients. Although troponins have powerful prognostic value, current ACS scores do not fully capitalize this prognostic ability. Here, we weigh troponin status in a multiplicative manner to develop the TRACS score from previously published Rush score risk factors (RRF). Methods: 2,866 ACS patients (46.7% troponin positive) from 9 centers comprising the TRACS registry, were randomly split into derivation (n=1,422) and validation (n=1,444) cohorts. In the derivation sample, RRF sum was multiplied by 3 if troponins were positive to yield the TRACS score, which was grouped into five categories of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-15 (multiples of 3). Predictive performance of this score to predict hospital death was ascertained in the validation sample. Results: The TRACS score had ROC AUC of 0.71 in the validation cohort. Logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, likelihood-ratio and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) test indicated that weighing troponin status with 3 in the TRACS score improved the prediction of mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated sound model fit. Conclusions: We demonstrate that weighing troponin as a multiple of 3 yields robust prognostication of hospital mortality in ACS patients, when used in the context of the TRACS score. PMID:19557150

Lives saved from malaria prevention in Africa--evidence to sustain cost-effective gains.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L

2012-03-28

Lives saved have become a standard metric to express health benefits across interventions and diseases. Recent estimates of malaria-attributable under-five deaths prevented using the Lives Saved tool (LiST), extrapolating effectiveness estimates from community-randomized trials of scale-up of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in the 1990s, confirm the substantial impact and good cost-effectiveness that ITNs have achieved in high-endemic sub-Saharan Africa. An even higher cost-effectiveness would likely have been found if the modelling had included the additional indirect mortality impact of ITNs on preventing deaths from other common child illnesses, to which malaria contributes as a risk factor. As conventional ITNs are being replaced by long-lasting insecticidal nets and scale-up is expanded to target universal coverage for full, all-age populations at risk, enhanced transmission reduction may--above certain thresholds--enhance the mortality impact beyond that observed in the trials of the 1990s. On the other hand, lives saved by ITNs might fall if improved malaria case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy averts the deaths that ITNs would otherwise prevent.Validation and updating of LiST's simple assumption of a universal, fixed coverage-to-mortality-reduction ratio will require enhanced national programme and impact monitoring and evaluation. Key indicators for time trend analysis include malaria-related mortality from population-based surveys and vital registration, vector control and treatment coverage from surveys, and parasitologically-confirmed malaria cases and deaths recorded in health facilities. Indispensable is triangulation with dynamic transmission models, fitted to long-term trend data on vector, parasite and human populations over successive phases of malaria control and elimination.Sound, locally optimized budget allocation including on monitoring and evaluation priorities will benefit much if policy makers and programme planners use planning tools such as LiST - even when predictions are less certain than often understood. The ultimate success of LiST for supporting malaria prevention may be to prove its linear predictions less and less relevant.

Causes of maternal and child mortality among Cambodian sex workers and their children: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Willis, Brian; Onda, Saki; Stoklosa, Hanni Marie

2016-11-21

To reach global and national goals for maternal and child mortality, countries must identify vulnerable populations, which includes sex workers and their children. The objective of this study was to identify and describe maternal deaths of female sex workers in Cambodia and causes of death among their children. A convenience sample of female sex workers were recruited by local NGOs that provide support to sex workers. We modified the maternal mortality section of the 2010 Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey and collected reports of all deaths of female sex workers. For each death we ask the 'sisterhood' methodology questions to identify maternal deaths. For child deaths we asked each mother who reported the death of a child about the cause of death. We also asked all participants about the cause of deaths of children of other female sex workers. We interviewed 271 female sex workers in the four largest Cambodian cities between May and September 2013. Participants reported 32 deaths of other female sex workers that met criteria for maternal death. The most common reported causes of maternal deaths were abortion (n = 13;40%) and HIV (n = 5;16%). Participants report deaths of 8 of their children and 50 deaths of children of other female sex workers. HIV was the reported cause of death for 13 (36%) children under age five. This is the first report of maternal deaths of sex workers in Cambodia or any other country. This modification of the sisterhood methodology has not been validated and did not allow us to calculate maternal mortality rates so the results are not generalizable, however these deaths may represent unrecognized maternal deaths in Cambodia. The results also indicate that children of sex workers in Cambodia are at risk of HIV and may not be accessing treatment. These issues require additional studies but in the meantime we must assure that sex workers in Cambodia and their children have access to quality health services.

Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

PubMed Central

Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates. Methods We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared. Findings On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups. Conclusion A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality. PMID:27994280

Mortality in Children Under Five Receiving Nonphysician Clinician Emergency Care in Uganda.

PubMed

Rice, Brian; Periyanayagam, Usha; Chamberlain, Stacey; Dreifuss, Bradley; Hammerstedt, Heather; Nelson, Sara; Maling, Samuel; Bisanzo, Mark

2016-03-01

A nonphysician clinician (NPC) training program was started in Uganda in 2009. NPC care was initially supervised by a physician and subsequent care was independent. The mortality of children under 5 (U5) was analyzed to evaluate the impact of transitioning NPC care from physician-supervised to independent care. A retrospective review was performed of a quality assurance database including 3-day follow-up for all patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Mortality rates were calculated and χ(2) tests used for significance of proportions. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess independent predictors of mortality. Overall, 68.8% of 4985 U5 patients were admitted and 28.6% were "severely ill." The overall mortality was significantly lower in physician-supervised versus independent NPC care (2.90% vs 5.04%, P = .05). No significant mortality difference was seen between supervised and unsupervised care (2.17% vs 3.01%, P = .43) for the majority of patients that were not severely ill. Severely ill patients analyzed separately showed a significant mortality difference (4.07% vs 10.3%, P = .01). Logistic regression revealed physician supervision significantly reduced mortality for patients overall (odds ratio = 0.52, P = .03), but not for nonseverely ill patients analyzed separately (odds ratio = 0.73, P = .47). Though physician supervision reduced mortality for the severely ill subset of patients, physicians are not available full-time in most EDs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Training NPCs in emergency care produced noninferior mortality outcomes for unsupervised NPC care compared with physician-supervised NPC care for the majority of U5 patients. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community.

PubMed

Burnett, Jason; Jackson, Shelly L; Sinha, Arup K; Aschenbrenner, Andrew R; Murphy, Kathleen Pace; Xia, Rui; Diamond, Pamela M

2016-01-01

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.

Using community-based reporting of vital events to monitor child mortality: Lessons from rural Ghana.

PubMed

Helleringer, Stephane; Arhinful, Daniel; Abuaku, Benjamin; Humes, Michael; Wilson, Emily; Marsh, Andrew; Clermont, Adrienne; Black, Robert E; Bryce, Jennifer; Amouzou, Agbessi

2018-01-01

Reducing neonatal and child mortality is a key component of the health-related sustainable development goal (SDG), but most low and middle income countries lack data to monitor child mortality on an annual basis. We tested a mortality monitoring system based on the continuous recording of pregnancies, births and deaths by trained community-based volunteers (CBV). This project was implemented in 96 clusters located in three districts of the Northern Region of Ghana. Community-based volunteers (CBVs) were selected from these clusters and were trained in recording all pregnancies, births, and deaths among children under 5 in their catchment areas. Data collection lasted from January 2012 through September 2013. All CBVs transmitted tallies of recorded births and deaths to the Ghana Birth and deaths registry each month, except in one of the study districts (approximately 80% reporting). Some events were reported only several months after they had occurred. We assessed the completeness and accuracy of CBV data by comparing them to retrospective full pregnancy histories (FPH) collected during a census of the same clusters conducted in October-December 2013. We conducted all analyses separately by district, as well as for the combined sample of all districts. During the 21-month implementation period, the CBVs reported a total of 2,819 births and 137 under-five deaths. Among the latter, there were 84 infant deaths (55 neonatal deaths and 29 post-neonatal deaths). Comparison of the CBV data with FPH data suggested that CBVs significantly under-estimated child mortality: the estimated under-5 mortality rate according to CBV data was only 2/3 of the rate estimated from FPH data (95% Confidence Interval for the ratio of the two rates = 51.7 to 81.4). The discrepancies between the CBV and FPH estimates of infant and neonatal mortality were more limited, but varied significantly across districts. In northern Ghana, a community-based data collection systems relying on volunteers did not yield accurate estimates of child mortality rates. Additional implementation research is needed to improve the timeliness, completeness and accuracy of such systems. Enhancing pregnancy monitoring, in particular, may be an essential step to improve the measurement of neonatal mortality.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals.

PubMed

Golding, Nick; Burstein, Roy; Longbottom, Joshua; Browne, Annie J; Fullman, Nancy; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron; Earl, Lucas; Bhatt, Samir; Cameron, Ewan; Casey, Daniel C; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Farag, Tamer H; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fraser, Maya S; Gething, Peter W; Gibson, Harry S; Graetz, Nicholas; Krause, L Kendall; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Lim, Stephen S; Mappin, Bonnie; Morozoff, Chloe; Reiner, Robert C; Sligar, Amber; Smith, David L; Wang, Haidong; Weiss, Daniel J; Murray, Christopher J L; Moyes, Catherine L; Hay, Simon I

2017-11-11

During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Health: Evidence from Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erdogan, Seyfettin; Yildirim, Durmus Cagri; Tosuner, Ozlem

2012-01-01

One of the main variables affecting the level of human capital positively is the improvements in health. The reduction in infant and under-five mortality rates and increase in life expectancy at birth are the basic indicators of improvements in health. One of the major sources of improvements in these variables is education. Theoretical literature…

Derivation and validation of in-hospital mortality prediction models in ischaemic stroke patients using administrative data.

PubMed

Lee, Jason; Morishima, Toshitaka; Kunisawa, Susumu; Sasaki, Noriko; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Ikai, Hiroshi; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-01-01

Stroke and other cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death and disability. Predicting in-hospital mortality in ischaemic stroke patients can help to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches. Chart reviews provide important clinical information for mortality prediction, but are laborious and limiting in sample sizes. Administrative data allow for large-scale multi-institutional analyses but lack the necessary clinical information for outcome research. However, administrative claims data in Japan has seen the recent inclusion of patient consciousness and disability information, which may allow more accurate mortality prediction using administrative data alone. The aim of this study was to derive and validate models to predict in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for ischaemic stroke using administrative data. The sample consisted of 21,445 patients from 176 Japanese hospitals, who were randomly divided into derivation and validation subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed using 7- and 30-day and overall in-hospital mortality as dependent variables. Independent variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities upon admission, Japan Coma Scale (JCS) score, Barthel Index score, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, and admissions after hours and on weekends/public holidays. Models were developed in the derivation subgroup, and coefficients from these models were applied to the validation subgroup. Predictive ability was analysed using C-statistics; calibration was evaluated with Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) tests. All three models showed predictive abilities similar or surpassing that of chart review-based models. The C-statistics were highest in the 7-day in-hospital mortality prediction model, at 0.906 and 0.901 in the derivation and validation subgroups, respectively. For the 30-day in-hospital mortality prediction models, the C-statistics for the derivation and validation subgroups were 0.893 and 0.872, respectively; in overall in-hospital mortality prediction these values were 0.883 and 0.876. In this study, we have derived and validated in-hospital mortality prediction models for three different time spans using a large population of ischaemic stroke patients in a multi-institutional analysis. The recent inclusion of JCS, Barthel Index, and mRS scores in Japanese administrative data has allowed the prediction of in-hospital mortality with accuracy comparable to that of chart review analyses. The models developed using administrative data had consistently high predictive abilities for all models in both the derivation and validation subgroups. These results have implications in the role of administrative data in future mortality prediction analyses. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Palliative care and prognosis in COPD: a systematic review with a validation cohort.

PubMed

Almagro, Pere; Yun, Sergi; Sangil, Ana; Rodríguez-Carballeira, Mónica; Marine, Meritxell; Landete, Pedro; Soler-Cataluña, Juan José; Soriano, Joan B; Miravitlles, Marc

2017-01-01

Current recommendations to consider initiation of palliative care (PC) in COPD patients are often based on an expected poor prognosis. However, this approach is not evidence-based, and which and when COPD patients should start PC is controversial. We aimed to assess whether current suggested recommendations for initiating PC were sufficiently reliable. We identified prognostic variables proposed in the literature for initiating PC; then, we ascertained their relationship with 1-year mortality, and finally, we validated their utility in our cohort of 697 patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation. From 24 articles of 499 screened, we selected 20 variables and retrieved 48 original articles in which we were able to calculate the relationship between each of them and 1-year mortality. The number of studies where 1-year mortality was detailed for these variables ranged from 9 for previous hospitalizations or FEV 1 ≤30% to none for albumin ≤25 mg/dL. The percentage of 1-year mortality in the literature for these variables ranged from 5% to 60%. In the validation cohort study, the prevalence of these proposed variables ranged from 8% to 64%; only 10 of the 18 variables analyzed in our cohort reached statistical significance with Cox regression analysis, and none overcame an area under the curve ≥0.7. We conclude that none of the suggested criteria for initiating PC based on an expected poor vital prognosis in COPD patients in the short or medium term offers sufficient reliability, and consequently, they should be avoided as exclusive criteria for considering PC or at least critically appraised.

Palliative care and prognosis in COPD: a systematic review with a validation cohort

PubMed Central

Almagro, Pere; Yun, Sergi; Sangil, Ana; Rodríguez-Carballeira, Mónica; Marine, Meritxell; Landete, Pedro; Soler-Cataluña, Juan José; Soriano, Joan B; Miravitlles, Marc

2017-01-01

Current recommendations to consider initiation of palliative care (PC) in COPD patients are often based on an expected poor prognosis. However, this approach is not evidence-based, and which and when COPD patients should start PC is controversial. We aimed to assess whether current suggested recommendations for initiating PC were sufficiently reliable. We identified prognostic variables proposed in the literature for initiating PC; then, we ascertained their relationship with 1-year mortality, and finally, we validated their utility in our cohort of 697 patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation. From 24 articles of 499 screened, we selected 20 variables and retrieved 48 original articles in which we were able to calculate the relationship between each of them and 1-year mortality. The number of studies where 1-year mortality was detailed for these variables ranged from 9 for previous hospitalizations or FEV1 ≤30% to none for albumin ≤25 mg/dL. The percentage of 1-year mortality in the literature for these variables ranged from 5% to 60%. In the validation cohort study, the prevalence of these proposed variables ranged from 8% to 64%; only 10 of the 18 variables analyzed in our cohort reached statistical significance with Cox regression analysis, and none overcame an area under the curve ≥0.7. We conclude that none of the suggested criteria for initiating PC based on an expected poor vital prognosis in COPD patients in the short or medium term offers sufficient reliability, and consequently, they should be avoided as exclusive criteria for considering PC or at least critically appraised. PMID:28652724

Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Wells, Brian J; Roth, Rachel; Nowacki, Amy S; Arrigain, Susana; Yu, Changhong; Rosenkrans, Wayne A; Kattan, Michael W

2013-01-01

Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent. Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) for CHD and stroke, respectively. Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062), heart failure (1408), stroke (1451), and mortality (3661). The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics) for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730), heart failure (0.753), stroke (0.688), and mortality (0.719). The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke. Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading "Type 2 Diabetes" and entitled, "Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality." This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician's choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

Geriatric Fever Score: A New Decision Rule for Geriatric Care

PubMed Central

Vong, Si-Chon; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Chen, Kuo-Tai; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Su, Shih-Bin; Guo, How-Ran; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2014-01-01

Background Evaluating geriatric patients with fever is time-consuming and challenging. We investigated independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever and developed a prediction rule for emergency care, critical care, and geriatric care physicians to classify patients into mortality risk and disposition groups. Materials and Methods Consecutive geriatric patients (≥65 years old) visiting the emergency department (ED) of a university-affiliated medical center between June 1 and July 21, 2010, were enrolled when they met the criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. Thirty-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Internal validation with bootstrap re-sampling was done. Results Three hundred thirty geriatric patients were enrolled. We found three independent mortality predictors: Leukocytosis (WBC >12,000 cells/mm3), Severe coma (GCS ≤ 8), and Thrombocytopenia (platelets <150 103/mm3) (LST). After assigning weights to each predictor, we developed a Geriatric Fever Score that stratifies patients into two mortality-risk and disposition groups: low (4.0%) (95% CI: 2.3–6.9%): a general ward or treatment in the ED then discharge and high (30.3%) (95% CI: 17.4–47.3%): consider the intensive care unit. The area under the curve for the rule was 0.73. Conclusions We found that the Geriatric Fever Score is a simple and rapid rule for predicting 30-day mortality and classifying mortality risk and disposition in geriatric patients with fever, although external validation should be performed to confirm its usefulness in other clinical settings. It might help preserve medical resources for patients in greater need. PMID:25340811

Mortality in high-risk patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome is similar to that of peptic ulcer bleeding. Results of a prospective database study.

PubMed

Ljubičić, Neven; Budimir, Ivan; Pavić, Tajana; Bišćanin, Alen; Puljiz, Zeljko; Bratanić, Andre; Troskot, Branko; Zekanović, Dražen

2014-04-01

The aim of this study was to identify the predictive factors influencing mortality in patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome in comparison with peptic ulcer bleeding. Between January 2005 and December 2009, 281 patients with endoscopically confirmed Mallory-Weiss syndrome and 1530 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were consecutively evaluated. The 30-day mortality and clinical outcome were related to the patients' demographic data, endoscopic, and clinical characteristics. The one-year cumulative incidence for bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome was 7.3 cases/100,000 people and for peptic ulcer bleeding 40.4 cases/100,000 people. The age-standardized incidence for both bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding remained unchanged during the observational five-year period. The majority of patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome were male patients with significant overall comorbidities (ASA class 3-4). Overall 30-day mortality rate was 5.3% for patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and 4.6% for patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (p = 0.578). In both patients with bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding, mortality was significantly higher in patients over 65 years of age and those with significant overall comorbidities (ASA class 3-4). The incidence of bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding has not changed over a five-year observational period. The overall 30-day mortality was almost equal for both bleeding Mallory-Weiss syndrome and peptic ulcer bleeding and was positively correlated to older age and underlying comorbid illnesses.

Prospective study of one million deaths in India: rationale, design, and validation results.

PubMed

Jha, Prabhat; Gajalakshmi, Vendhan; Gupta, Prakash C; Kumar, Rajesh; Mony, Prem; Dhingra, Neeraj; Peto, Richard

2006-02-01

Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998-2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004-2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998-2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004-2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors. This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.

Consequences of Widespread Piñon Mortality for Water Availability and Water Use Dynamics in Piñon-Juniper Woodlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morillas, L.; Pangle, R. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Pockman, W.; Litvak, M. E.

2014-12-01

Tree die-off events have showed a rapid increase in the last decade as a result of warmer temperatures and more severe drought. In the southwestern US, where piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands occupy 24 million ha, the turn of the century drought (1999-2002) triggered 40-95% mortality of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% mortality of juniper (Juniperous monosperma). To determine the consequences of this disturbance on surface water balance we conducted a girdling experiment where all piñon trees above 7 cm of diameter at breast height in an area of 200 m2 were girdled in September 2009. We compared water and energy fluxes in this girdled site (PJG) using open-path eddy covariance (EC) to fluxes measured simultaneously in an intact PJ woodland less than 3 km away (PJC). In addition to evapotranspiration (ET) measurements from EC, canopy transpiration (ETc) was measured using sap flow probes (Granier thermal dissipation method) installed on five juniper and five piñon trees at each site. Soil water content (SWC) was also monitored using TDR probes (CS610, Campbell Scientific) under the three main cover types ( bare soil, under juniper and under piñon) and at three depths (5,10 and 30 cm depths) in both sites. Total ET at PJG decreased slowly, but progressively, relative to PJC following the girdling, with annual ET 5%, 10% and 19% lower in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively, in the girdled site. Following the girdling, canopy transpiration was significantly reduced at PJG, with an observed reduction of annual ETc at PJG of 45%, 59% and 71% from 2010 to 2012 compared to the PJC site. Our results suggest that girdling triggered a significant increase of soil evaporation and understory transpiration (not directly measured) as a result of canopy cover loss. This agrees with significant higher establishment of annual forbs seen at PJG relative to PJC and the increase of solar radiation reaching the soil surface as a result of canopy cover loss. Our results suggest piñon mortality leaves PJ woodlands hotter and drier than intact PJ woodlands. Given the extent of mortality observed in these woodlands and the predicted increase in mortality expected over the next century, these results have important surface energy balance consequences for the Southwestern US.

Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

PubMed

Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-04-06

To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Labor migration and child mortality in Mozambique

PubMed Central

Yabiku, Scott T.; Agadjanian, Victor; Cau, Boaventura

2013-01-01

Male labor migration is widespread in many parts of the world, yet its consequences for child outcomes and especially childhood mortality remain unclear. Male labor migration could bring benefits, in the form of remittances, to the families that remain behind and thus help child survival. Alternatively, the absence of a male adult could imperil the household's well-being and its ability to care for its members, increasing child mortality risks. In this analysis, we use longitudinal survey data from Mozambique collected in 2006 and 2009 to examine the association between male labor migration and under-five mortality in families that remain behind. Using a simple migrant/non-migrant dichotomy, we find no difference in mortality rates across migrant and non-migrant men's children. When we separated successful from unsuccessful migration based on the wife's perception, however, stark contrasts emerge: children of successful migrants have the lowest mortality, followed by children of non-migrant men, followed by the children of unsuccessful migrants. Our results illustrate the need to account for the diversity of men's labor migration experience in examining the effects of migration on left-behind households. PMID:23121856

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Shouro

2018-06-01

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Maternal and child mortality indicators across 187 countries of the world: converging or diverging.

PubMed

Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

2014-01-01

This study reassessed the progress achieved since 1990 in maternal and child mortality indicators to test whether the progress is converging or diverging across countries worldwide. The convergence process is examined using standard parametric and non-parametric econometric models of convergence. The results of absolute convergence estimates reveal that progress in maternal and child mortality indicators is diverging for the entire period of 1990-2010 [maternal mortality ratio (MMR) - β = .00033, p < .574; neonatal mortality rate (NNMR) - β = .04367, p < .000; post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) - β = .02677, p < .000; under-five mortality rate (U5MR) - β = .00828, p < .000)]. In the recent period, such divergence is replaced with convergence for MMR but diverged for all the child mortality indicators. The results of Kernel density estimate reveal considerable reduction in divergence of MMR for the recent period; however, the Kernel density distribution plots show more than one 'peak' which indicates the emergence of convergence clubs based on their mortality levels. For child mortality indicators, the Kernel estimates suggest that divergence is in progress across the countries worldwide but tended to converge for countries with low mortality levels. A mere progress in global averages of maternal and child mortality indicators among a global cross-section of countries does not warranty convergence unless there is a considerable reduction in variance, skewness and range of change.

Hand washing with soap and WASH educational intervention reduces under-five childhood diarrhoea incidence in Jigjiga District, Eastern Ethiopia: A community-based cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hashi, Abdiwahab; Kumie, Abera; Gasana, Janvier

2017-06-01

Despite the tremendous achievement in reducing child mortality and morbidity in the last two decades, diarrhoea is still a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in many developing countries, including Ethiopia. Hand washing with soap promotion, water quality improvements and improvements in excreta disposal significantly reduces diarrhoeal diseases. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of hand washing with soap and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) educational Intervention on the incidence of under-five children diarrhoea. A community-based cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted in 24 clusters (sub-Kebelles) in Jigjiga district, Somali region, Eastern Ethiopia from February 1 to July 30, 2015. The trial compared incidence of diarrhoea among under-five children whose primary caretakers receive hand washing with soap and water, sanitation, hygiene educational messages with control households. Generalized estimating equation with a log link function Poisson distribution family was used to compute adjusted incidence rate ratio and the corresponding 95% confidence interval. The results of this study show that the longitudinal adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of diarrhoeal diseases comparing interventional and control households was 0.65 (95% CI 0.57, 0.73) suggesting an overall diarrhoeal diseases reduction of 35%. The results are similar to other trials of WASH educational interventions and hand washing with soap. In conclusion, hand washing with soap practice during critical times and WASH educational messages reduces childhood diarrhoea in the rural pastoralist area.

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Comorbidities and risk of mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Divo, Miguel; Cote, Claudia; de Torres, Juan P; Casanova, Ciro; Marin, Jose M; Pinto-Plata, Victor; Zulueta, Javier; Cabrera, Carlos; Zagaceta, Jorge; Hunninghake, Gary; Celli, Bartolome

2012-07-15

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are afflicted by comorbidities. Few studies have prospectively evaluated COPD comorbidities and mortality risk. To prospectively evaluate COPD comorbidities and mortality risk. We followed 1,664 patients with COPD in five centers for a median of 51 months. Systematically, 79 comorbidities were recorded. We calculated mortality risk using Cox proportional hazard, and developed a graphic representation of the prevalence and strength of association to mortality in the form of a "comorbidome". A COPD comorbidity index (COPD specific comorbidity test [COTE]) was constructed based on the comorbidities that increase mortality risk using a multivariate analysis. We tested the COTE index as predictor of mortality and explored whether the COTE index added predictive information when used with the validated BODE index. Fifteen of 79 comorbidities differed in prevalence between survivors and nonsurvivors. Of those, 12 predicted mortality and were integrated into the COTE index. Increases in the COTE index were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD-related (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.18; P < 0.001) and non-COPD-related causes (HR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.21; P < 0.001). Further, increases in the BODE and COTE were independently associated with increased risk of death. A COTE score of greater than or equal to 4 points increased by 2.2-fold the risk of death (HR, 2.26-2.68; P < 0.001) in all BODE quartile. Comorbidities are frequent in COPD and 12 of them negatively influence survival. A simple disease-specific comorbidities index (COTE) helps assess mortality risk in patients with COPD.

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause.

PubMed

Howard, G

1993-09-01

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

Efficacy of World Health Organization guideline in facility-based reduction of mortality in severely malnourished children from low and middle income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hossain, Muttaquina; Chisti, Mohammod J; Hossain, Mohammod Iqbal; Mahfuz, Mustafa; Islam, Mohammad Munirul; Ahmed, Tahmeed

2017-05-01

Globally more than 19 million under-five children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Data on efficacy of World Health Organization's (WHO's) guideline in reducing SAM mortality are limited. We aimed to assess the efficacy of WHO's facility-based guideline for the reduction of under-five SAM children mortality from low and middle income countries (LMICs). A systematic search of literature published in 1980-2015 was conducted using electronic databases. Additional articles were identified from the reference lists and grey literature. Studies from LMICs where SAM children (0-59 months) were managed in facilities according to WHO's guideline were included. Outcome was reduction in SAM mortality measured by case fatality rate (CFR). The review was reported following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guideline and meta-analyses done using RevMan 5.3®. This review identified nine studies, which demonstrated reductions in SAM mortality. CFR ranged from 8 to 16% where WHO guideline applied. High rates of poverty, malnutrition, severe co-morbid condition, lack of resources and differences in treatment practices played a key role in large CFR variation. Most death occurred within 48 h of admission in Asia, between 4 days and 4 weeks in Africa and in Latin America. CFR was reduced by 41% (odds ratio: 0.59; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.76) when WHO guideline were applied. A 45% reduction in CFR was achieved after excluding human immunodeficiency virus positive cases. Dietary management also differed among WHO and conventional management. Children receiving SAM inpatient care as per WHO guideline have reduced CFR compared to conventional treatment. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

[Risk Prediction Using Routine Data: Development and Validation of Multivariable Models Predicting 30- and 90-day Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer].

PubMed

Crispin, Alexander; Strahwald, Brigitte; Cheney, Catherine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2018-06-04

Quality control, benchmarking, and pay for performance (P4P) require valid indicators and statistical models allowing adjustment for differences in risk profiles of the patient populations of the respective institutions. Using hospital remuneration data for measuring quality and modelling patient risks has been criticized by clinicians. Here we explore the potential of prediction models for 30- and 90-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery based on routine data. Full census of a major statutory health insurer. Surgical departments throughout the Federal Republic of Germany. 4283 and 4124 insurants with major surgery for treatment of colorectal cancer during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses as well as tumor locations as recorded in the hospital remuneration data according to §301 SGB V. 30- and 90-day mortality. Elixhauser comorbidities, Charlson conditions, and Charlson scores were generated from the ICD-10 diagnoses. Multivariable prediction models were developed using a penalized logistic regression approach (logistic ridge regression) in a derivation set (patients treated in 2013). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed in an internal validation sample (patients treated in 2014) using calibration curves, Brier scores, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and the areas under the ROC curves (AUC). 30- and 90-day mortality rates in the learning-sample were 5.7 and 8.4%, respectively. The corresponding values in the validation sample were 5.9% and once more 8.4%. Models based on Elixhauser comorbidities exhibited the highest discriminatory power with AUC values of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.776 -0.832) and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.828) for 30- and 90-day mortality. The Brier scores for these models were 0.050 (95% CI: 0.044-0.056) and 0.067 (95% CI: 0.060-0.074) and similar to the models based on Charlson conditions. Regardless of the model, low predicted probabilities were well calibrated, while higher predicted values tended to be overestimates. The reasonable results regarding discrimination and calibration notwithstanding, models based on hospital remuneration data may not be helpful for P4P. Routine data do not offer information regarding a wide range of quality indicators more useful than mortality. As an alternative, models based on clinical registries may allow a wider, more valid perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Fertility and Child Mortality in Urban West Africa: Leveraging geo-referenced data to move beyond the urban/rural dichotomy

PubMed Central

Corker, Jamaica

2016-01-01

Demographic research in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has long relied on a blunt urban/rural dichotomy that may obscure important inter-urban fertility and mortality differentials. This paper uses Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) geo-referenced data to look beyond the simple urban/rural division by spatially locating survey clusters along an urban continuum and producing estimates of fertility and child mortality by four city size categories in West Africa. Results show a gradient in urban characteristics and demographic outcomes: the largest cities are the most advantaged and smaller cities least advantaged with respect to access to urban amenities, lower fertility and under-5 survival rates. There is a difference in the patterns of fertility and under-five survival across urban categories, with fertility more linearly associated with city size while the only significant distinction for under-5 survival in urban areas is broadly between the larger and smaller cities. Notably, the small urban “satellite cities” that are adjacent to the largest cities have the most favorable outcomes of all categories. Although smaller urban areas have significantly lower fertility and child mortality than rural areas, in some cases this difference is nearly as large between the smallest and largest urban areas. These results are used to argue for the need to give greater consideration to employing an urban continuum in demographic research. PMID:28943812

Reducing the Child Death Rate. KIDS COUNT Indicator Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shore, Rima; Shore, Barbara

2009-01-01

In the 20th century's final decades, advances in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases sharply reduced the child death rate. Despite this progress, the child death rate in the U.S. remains higher than in many other wealthy nations. The under-five mortality rate in the U.S. is almost three times higher than that of Iceland and Sweden…

[Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome: ten years' experience at a tertiary hospital].

PubMed

Vallalta-Morales, Manuel; Salavert-Lletí, Miguel; Artero-Mora, Arturo; Mahiques-Santos, Laura; Solaz-Moreno, Elena; Pérez-Bellés, Carmen

2005-11-01

In the last two decades there has been a reported increase in the incidence of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). The objective of this study was to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of this infection. Retrospective study of all cases of STSS diagnosed at a single tertiary hospital over the last ten years. We report 13 cases of STSS (8 men, mean age 62 years). The mean annual incidence was 0.19 episodes/100,000 population from 1994 to 1998 and 0.53 episodes/100,000 population from 1999 to 2003 (p = 0.059). All patients had at least one underlying disease and there were no intravenous drug users. The most common portals of entry were the skin and soft tissues (85%) and all but one patient had a positive blood culture. Two cases were nosocomial and five patients required surgery (amputation and/or debridement). There was a high mortality rate (85%) and a rapid course from onset to death; nine patients died within four days after establishing the diagnosis. The incidence of SSTS has increased over the last five years at our hospital. Elderly patients with underlying medical conditions were more susceptible to acquiring this infection. Early mortality was very high.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-04-01

This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. children aged under five years. 34 countries in SSA. Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.

Health transition in Brazil: regional variations and divergence/convergence in mortality.

PubMed

Borges, Gabriel Mendes

2017-08-21

This study analyzes the main characteristics of the health transition in Brazil and its five major regions, using a framework that accounts for regional inequalities in mortality trends. The regional mortality divergence/convergence process is described and discussed by considering the specific contributions of age groups and causes of death in life expectancy variations. Results show that mortality change in Brazil has follow the epidemiologic transition theory to some extent during the period under analysis - for instance, the sharp decline in infant mortality in all regions (first from infectious and parasitic diseases and then from causes associated with the perinatal period) and the increase in the participation of chronic and degenerative diseases as the main cause of death. However, some features of Brazilian transition have not followed the linear and unidirectional pattern proposed by the epidemiologic transition theory, which helps to understand the periods of regional divergence in life expectancy, despite the long-term trends showing reducing regional inequalities. The emergence of HIV/AIDS, the persistence of relatively high levels of other infections and parasitic diseases, the regional differences in the unexpected mortality improvements from cardiovascular diseases, and the rapid and strong variations in mortality from external causes are some of the examples.

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death score has many attractive attributes that address the key barriers to adoption of ICU risk adjustment algorithms and performs comparably to existing human-intensive algorithms. Automated risk adjustment algorithms have the potential to obviate known barriers to adoption such as cost-prohibitive licensing fees and significant direct labor costs. Further evaluation is needed to ensure that the level of performance observed in this study could be achieved at independent sites.

The effect of maternal child marriage on morbidity and mortality of children under 5 in India: cross sectional study of a nationally representative sample

PubMed Central

Saggurti, Niranjan; Winter, Michael; Labonte, Alan; Decker, Michele R; Balaiah, Donta; Silverman, Jay G

2010-01-01

Objective To assess associations between maternal child marriage (marriage before age 18) and morbidity and mortality of infants and children under 5 in India. Design Cross-sectional analyses of nationally representative household sample. Generalised estimating equation models constructed to assess associations. Adjusted models included maternal and child demographics and maternal body mass index as covariates. Setting India. Population Women aged 15-49 years (n=124 385); data collected in 2005-6 through National Family Health Survey-3. Data about child morbidity and mortality reported by participants. Analyses restricted to births in past five years reported by ever married women aged 15-24 years (n=19 302 births to 13 396 mothers). Main outcome measures In under 5s: mortality related infectious diseases in the past two weeks (acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea); malnutrition (stunting, wasting, underweight); infant (age <1 year) and child (1-5 years) mortality; low birth weight (<2500 kg). Results The majority of births (73%; 13 042/19 302) were to mothers married as minors. Although bivariate analyses showed significant associations between maternal child marriage and infant and child diarrhoea, malnutrition (stunted, wasted, underweight), low birth weight, and mortality, only stunting (adjusted odds ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.33) and underweight (1.24, 1.14 to 1.36) remained significant in adjusted analyses. We noted no effect of maternal child marriage on health of boys versus girls. Conclusions The risk of malnutrition is higher in young children born to mothers married as minors than in those born to women married at a majority age. Further research should examine how early marriage affects food distribution and access for children in India. PMID:20093277

Social and Demographic Factors Associated with Morbidities in Young Children in Egypt: A Bayesian Geo-Additive Semi-Parametric Multinomial Model.

PubMed

Khatab, Khaled; Adegboye, Oyelola; Mohammed, Taofeeq Ibn

2016-01-01

Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality. To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five. The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 4.6-10.2) than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.38-3.3). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.9-1.5) and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.91-1.51) compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions. This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

Assessment of Clinical Criteria for Sepsis

PubMed Central

Seymour, Christopher W.; Liu, Vincent X.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.; Brunkhorst, Frank M.; Rea, Thomas D.; Scherag, André; Rubenfeld, Gordon; Kahn, Jeremy M.; Shankar-Hari, Manu; Singer, Mervyn; Deutschman, Clifford S.; Escobar, Gabriel J.; Angus, Derek C.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force defined sepsis as “life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection.” The performance of clinical criteria for this sepsis definition is unknown. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the validity of clinical criteria to identify patients with suspected infection who are at risk of sepsis. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND POPULATION Among 1.3 million electronic health record encounters from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2012, at 12 hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania, we identified those with suspected infection in whom to compare criteria. Confirmatory analyses were performed in 4 data sets of 706 399 out-of-hospital and hospital encounters at 165 US and non-US hospitals ranging from January 1, 2008, until December 31, 2013. EXPOSURES Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) score, and a new model derived using multivariable logistic regression in a split sample, the quick Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (range, 0–3 points, with 1 point each for systolic hypotension [≤100 mm Hg], tachypnea [≥22/min], or altered mentation). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES For construct validity, pairwise agreement was assessed. For predictive validity, the discrimination for outcomes (primary: in-hospital mortality; secondary: in-hospital mortality or intensive care unit [ICU] length of stay ≥3 days) more common in sepsis than uncomplicated infection was determined. Results were expressed as the fold change in outcome over deciles of baseline risk of death and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS In the primary cohort, 148 907 encounters had suspected infection (n = 74 453 derivation; n = 74 454 validation), of whom 6347 (4%) died. Among ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 7932 with suspected infection, of whom 1289 [16%] died), the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality was lower for SIRS (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62–0.66) and qSOFA (AUROC = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64–0.68) vs SOFA (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73–0.76; P < .001 for both) or LODS (AUROC = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73–0.76; P < .001 for both). Among non-ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 66 522 with suspected infection, of whom 1886 [3%] died), qSOFA had predictive validity (AUROC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80–0.82) that was greater than SOFA (AUROC = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.78–0.80; P < .001) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75–0.77; P < .001). Relative to qSOFA scores lower than 2, encounters with qSOFA scores of 2 or higher had a 3- to 14-fold increase in hospital mortality across baseline risk deciles. Findings were similar in external data sets and for the secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among ICU encounters with suspected infection, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of SOFA was not significantly different than the more complex LODS but was statistically greater than SIRS and qSOFA, supporting its use in clinical criteria for sepsis. Among encounters with suspected infection outside of the ICU, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of qSOFA was statistically greater than SOFA and SIRS, supporting its use as a prompt to consider possible sepsis. PMID:26903335

Malnutrition related deaths.

PubMed

Sparre-Sørensen, Maja; Kristensen, Gustav N

2016-10-01

Studies have shown that malnutrition increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, the length of hospital stay, and costs in the elderly population. Approximately one third of all patients admitted to geriatric wards in Denmark are malnourished according to the Danish Geriatric database. The aim of this study is to describe and examine the sudden increase in deaths due to malnutrition in the elderly population in Denmark from 1999 and, similarly, the sudden decline in malnutrition related deaths in 2007. A descriptive epidemiologic study was performed. All Danes listed in the national death registry who died from malnutrition in the period from 1994 to 2012 are included. The number of deaths from malnutrition increased significantly during the period from 1999 to 2007, especially in the age group 70 years and over. Additionally, we document a surprising similarity between the development in excess mortality from malnutrition in the five Danish regions during the same period. During the period 1999-2007 malnutrition was the direct cause of 340 extra deaths, and probably ten times more registered under other diseases. This development in excess mortality runs parallel in all five Danish regions over time. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia; Zheng, Ming-Hua

2016-01-01

Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813-0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725-0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group.

The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score.

PubMed

Carosella, Victorio C; Navia, Jose L; Al-Ruzzeh, Sharif; Grancelli, Hugo; Rodriguez, Walter; Cardenas, Cesar; Bilbao, Jorge; Nojek, Carlos

2009-08-01

This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (P<0.0001). Recalibration was done in 2007, showing excellent level of agreement between the observed and predicted mortality rates on all patients (P=0.92). This is the first risk model for cardiac surgery developed in a population of Latin-America with both internal and external validation. A simple graphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

A proposal for a comprehensive risk scoring system for predicting postoperative complications in octogenarian patients with medically operable lung cancer: JACS1303.

PubMed

Saji, Hisashi; Ueno, Takahiko; Nakamura, Hiroshige; Okumura, Norihito; Tsuchida, Masanori; Sonobe, Makoto; Miyazaki, Takuro; Aokage, Keiju; Nakao, Masayuki; Haruki, Tomohiro; Ito, Hiroyuki; Kataoka, Kazuhiko; Okabe, Kazunori; Tomizawa, Kenji; Yoshimoto, Kentaro; Horio, Hirotoshi; Sugio, Kenji; Ode, Yasuhisa; Takao, Motoshi; Okada, Morihito; Chida, Masayuki

2018-04-01

Although some retrospective studies have reported clinicopathological scoring systems for predicting postoperative complications and survival outcomes for elderly lung cancer patients, optimized scoring systems remain controversial. The Japanese Association for Chest Surgery (JACS) conducted a nationwide multicentre prospective cohort and enrolled a total of 1019 octogenarians with medically operable lung cancer. Details of the clinical factors, comorbidities and comprehensive geriatric assessment were recorded for 895 patients to develop a comprehensive risk scoring (RS) system capable of predicting severe complications. Operative (30 days) and hospital mortality rates were 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. Complications were observed in 308 (34%) patients, of whom 81 (8.4%) had Grade 3-4 severe complications. Pneumonia was the most common severe complication, observed in 27 (3.0%) patients. Five predictive factors, gender, comprehensive geriatric assessment75: memory and Simplified Comorbidity Score (SCS): diabetes mellitus, albumin and percentage vital capacity, were identified as independent predictive factors for severe postoperative complications (odds ratio = 2.73, 1.86, 1.54, 1.66 and 1.61, respectively) through univariate and multivariate analyses. A 5-fold cross-validation was performed as an internal validation to reconfirm these 5 predictive factors (average area under the curve 0.70). We developed a simplified RS system as follows: RS = 3 (gender: male) + 2 (comprehensive geriatric assessment 75: memory: yes) + 2 (albumin: <3.8 ng/ml) + 1 (percentage vital capacity: ≤90) + 1 (SCS: diabetes mellitus: yes). The current series shows that octogenarians can be successfully treated for lung cancer with surgical resection with an acceptable rate of severe complications and mortality. We propose a simplified RS system to predict severe complications in octogenarian patients with medically operative lung cancer. JACS1303 (UMIN000016756).

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2015-12-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Griggs, Kathryn A.; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E.; Hutchinson, Peter J. A.; Menon, David K.; Rowan, Kathryn M.

2015-01-01

Abstract This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT “Lab” model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research. PMID:25898072

A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales.

PubMed

McAllister, Katherine S L; Ludman, Peter F; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E

2016-05-01

The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Griggs, Kathryn A; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E; Hutchinson, Peter J A; Menon, David K; Rowan, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT "Lab" model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research.

Soybean Resistance to White Mold: Evaluation of Soybean Germplasm Under Different Conditions and Validation of QTL

PubMed Central

Kandel, Ramkrishna; Chen, Charles Y.; Grau, Craig R.; Dorrance, Ann E.; Liu, Jean Q.; Wang, Yang; Wang, Dechun

2018-01-01

Soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) white mold (SWM), caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (Lib) de Barry), is a devastating fungal disease in the Upper Midwest of the United States and southern Canada. Various methods exist to evaluate for SWM resistance and many quantitative trait loci (QTL) with minor effect governing SWM resistance have been identified in prior studies. This study aimed to predict field resistance to SWM using low-cost and efficient greenhouse inoculation methods and to confirm the QTL reported in previous studies. Three related but independent studies were conducted in the field, greenhouse, and laboratory to evaluate for SWM resistance. The first study evaluated 66 soybean plant introductions (PIs) with known field resistance to SWM using the greenhouse drop-mycelium inoculation method. These 66 PIs were significantly (P < 0.043) different for resistance to SWM. However, year was highly significant (P < 0.00001), while PI x year interaction was not significant (P < 0.623). The second study compared plant mortality (PM) of 35 soybean breeding lines or varieties in greenhouse inoculation methods with disease severity index (DSI) in field evaluations. Moderate correlation (r) between PM under drop-mycelium method and DSI in field trials (r = 0.65, p < 0.0001) was obtained. The PM under spray-mycelium was also correlated significantly with DSI from field trials (r = 0.51, p < 0.0018). Likewise, significant correlation (r = 0.62, p < 0.0001) was obtained between PM across greenhouse inoculation methods and DSI across field trials. These findings suggest that greenhouse inoculation methods could predict the field resistance to SWM. The third study attempted to validate 33 QTL reported in prior studies using seven populations that comprised a total of 392 F4 : 6 lines derived from crosses involving a partially resistant cultivar “Skylla,” five partially resistant PIs, and a known susceptible cultivar “E00290.” The estimates of broad-sense heritability (h2) ranged from 0.39 to 0.66 in the populations. Of the seven populations, four had h2 estimates that were significantly different from zero (p < 0.05). Single marker analysis across populations and inoculation methods identified 11 significant SSRs (p < 0.05) corresponding to 10 QTL identified by prior studies. Thus, these five new PIs could be used as new sources of resistant alleles to develop SWM resistant commercial cultivars. PMID:29731761

Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Kanter, Robert K

2010-03-01

Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (<28 days), and a 57% decline in mortality rate occurred for postneonatal infants (28 days-1 year). The post-Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

The AIMS65 score compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting outcomes in upper GI bleeding.

PubMed

Hyett, Brian H; Abougergi, Marwan S; Charpentier, Joseph P; Kumar, Navin L; Brozovic, Suzana; Claggett, Brian L; Travis, Anne C; Saltzman, John R

2013-04-01

We previously derived and validated the AIMS65 score, a mortality prognostic scale for upper GI bleeding (UGIB). To validate the AIMS65 score in a different patient population and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford risk score (GBRS). Retrospective cohort study. Adults with a primary diagnosis of UGIB. inpatient mortality. composite clinical endpoint of inpatient mortality, rebleeding, and endoscopic, radiologic or surgical intervention; blood transfusion; intensive care unit admission; rebleeding; length of stay; timing of endoscopy. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score. Of the 278 study patients, 6.5% died and 35% experienced the composite clinical endpoint. The AIMS65 score was superior in predicting inpatient mortality (AUROC, 0.93 vs 0.68; P < .001), whereas the GBRS was superior in predicting blood transfusions (AUROC, 0.85 vs 0.65; P < .01) The 2 scores were similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint (AUROC, 0.62 vs 0.68; P = .13) as well as the secondary outcomes. A GBRS of 10 and 12 or more maximized the sum of the sensitivity and specificity for inpatient mortality and rebleeding, respectively. The cutoff was 2 or more for the AIMS65 score for both outcomes. Retrospective, single-center study. The AIMS65 score is superior to the GBRS in predicting inpatient mortality from UGIB, whereas the GBRS is superior for predicting blood transfusion. Both scores are similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint and other outcomes in clinical care and resource use. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of different East Coast fever control strategies on disease incidence in traditionally managed Sanga cattle in Central Province of Zambia.

PubMed

Minjauw, B; Otte, M J; James, A D; de Castro, J J; Sinyangwe, P

1998-05-01

A clinical trial, including five East Coast fever (ECF) control strategies (involving tick control and/or immunisation by infection-and-treatment) in five different groups of traditionally managed Sanga cattle, was conducted in Central Province of Zambia over 2.5 years between 1992 and 1995. Two groups were kept under intensive tick control by weekly acaricide treatment by hand spray; (one immunised and one non-immunised), two groups were under no tick control (one immunised and one non-immunised), and a fifth, immunised group was maintained under strategic tick control (18 sprays yr-1). ECF-specific mortality was highest in the non-immunised and non-treated group, while no difference in ECF-specific mortality could be observed between animals treated for ECF by immunisation or by tick control. Acaricide treatment and/or immunisation reduced the risk of clinical ECF by 92%. The results of an artificial challenge experiment at the end of the field trial indicated that about 60% of the animals in the control group had become infected with Theileria parva without showing clinical signs. ECF incidence in non-vaccinated cattle markedly declined six months after immunisation--suggesting that the carrier state induced by immunisation did not lead to a persistent high incidence, and might accelerate the progress to endemicity.

Development and Initial Validation of the Five-Factor Model Adolescent Personality Questionnaire (FFM-APQ).

PubMed

Rogers, Mary E; Glendon, A Ian

2018-01-01

This research reports on the 4-phase development of the 25-item Five-Factor Model Adolescent Personality Questionnaire (FFM-APQ). The purpose was to develop and determine initial evidence for validity of a brief adolescent personality inventory using a vocabulary that could be understood by adolescents up to 18 years old. Phase 1 (N = 48) consisted of item generation and expert (N = 5) review of items; Phase 2 (N = 179) involved item analyses; in Phase 3 (N = 496) exploratory factor analysis assessed the underlying structure; in Phase 4 (N = 405) confirmatory factor analyses resulted in a 25-item inventory with 5 subscales.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: application of the age-period-cohort model.

PubMed

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-03-05

Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Factors associated with perinatal mortality among public health deliveries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, an unmatched case control study.

PubMed

Getiye, Yemisrach; Fantahun, Mesganaw

2017-07-26

perinatal mortality is the sum of still birth (fetal death) and early neonatal death (ENND) i.e. death of live newborn before the age of 7 completed days. Perinatal mortality accounts three fourth of the deaths of the neonatal period and is one of the major challenges for under-five mortality. Therefore this study was conducted to better understand the common and avoidable factors that affect perinatal mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. An unmatched case control study design using secondary data as a source of information was conducted. Cases were still births or early neonatal deaths and controls were live births and neonates who were discharged alive from the hospital and did not die before the age of 7 days. The study period was from 1st January up to 30th February 2015. Epi-Info version 7.0 and SPSS Version 21 were used for data entry and analysis. Descriptive statistics, frequencies, proportions and diagrams were used to check the distribution of outcome variable and describe the study population. Logistic regression model was used to identify the important factors that are associated with perinatal mortality. A total of 1113(376 cases and 737 controls) maternal charts were reviewed. The mean age of the mothers for cases and controls were 26.47 ± 4.87 and 26.95 ± 4.68 respectively. Five hundred ninety seven (53.6%) mothers delivered for the first time. Factors that are significantly associated with increased risk of perinatal mortality were birth interval less than 2 years, preterm delivery, anemia, congenital anomaly, previous history of early neonatal death and low birth weight. Use of partograph was also associated with decreased risk of perinatal mortality. From factors that are associated with perinatal mortality, some of them can be prevented with early investigation of pregnant mothers on their antenatal care follow. Appropriate labor follow-up and monitoring with regular use of partograph, immediate newborn care and interventions to delay birth interval also minimize perinatal mortality.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Users' guides to the medical literature: how to use an article about mortality in a humanitarian emergency

PubMed Central

Mills, Edward J; Checchi, Francesco; Orbinski, James J; Schull, Michael J; Burkle, Frederick M; Beyrer, Chris; Cooper, Curtis; Hardy, Colleen; Singh, Sonal; Garfield, Richard; Woodruff, Bradley A; Guyatt, Gordon H

2008-01-01

The accurate interpretation of mortality surveys in humanitarian crises is useful for both public health responses and security responses. Recent examples suggest that few medical personnel and researchers can accurately interpret the validity of a mortality survey in these settings. Using an example of a mortality survey from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), we demonstrate important methodological considerations that readers should keep in mind when reading a mortality survey to determine the validity of the study and the applicability of the findings to their settings. PMID:18826636

Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

PubMed

Farag, Tamer H; Koplan, Jeffrey P; Breiman, Robert F; Madhi, Shabir A; Heaton, Penny M; Mundel, Trevor; Ordi, Jaume; Bassat, Quique; Menendez, Clara; Dowell, Scott F

2017-07-01

Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

A comparison of three organ dysfunction scores: MODS, SOFA and LOD for predicting ICU mortality in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Khwannimit, Bodin

2007-06-01

To compare the validity of the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LOD) for predicting ICU mortality of Thai critically ill patients. A retrospective study was made of prospective data collected between the 1st July 2004 and 31st March 2006 at Songklanagarind Hospital. One thousand seven hundred and eighty two patients were enrolled in the present study. Two hundred and ninety three (16.4%) deaths were recorded in the ICU. The areas under the Receiver Operating Curves (A UC) for the prediction of ICU mortality the results were 0.861 for MODS, 0.879 for SOFA and 0.880 for LOD. The AUC of SOFA and LOD showed a statistical significance higher than the MODS score (p = 0.014 and p = 0.042, respectively). Of all the models, the neurological failure score showed the best correlation with ICU mortality. All three organ dysfunction scores satisfactorily predicted ICU mortality. The LOD and neurological failure had the best correlation with ICU outcome.

Projection of ambient PM2.5 exposure in India and associated health burden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk

2017-04-01

Ambient particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the major criteria pollutant for health assessments of air quality. (WHO, 2006). Exposure to PM2.5 has potential health risks due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases leading to premature mortality. The annual premature mortality burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is large ( 0.6-0.8 million). It is important to understand how the ambient PM2.5 concentration will change in future under the warming climate and how it translates into premature mortality, when the population distribution exposed to the pollution and baseline mortality are expected to change in response to changes in socio-economic condition to adapt to climate change impacts. We estimate ambient PM2.5 future (up to 2100) by adopting 2 approaches. In the first approach, PM2.5 is estimated as a product of AOD from the CMIP5 models (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and the present day conversion factor estimated by the Geos-CHEM model as a function of present day meteorological conditions and emission. The second approach involves adding up all the PM2.5 components (SO4, NH4, BC, SOA, POA, a fraction of sea salt and dust) available from 13 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The change is represented in relative terms with respect to the baseline period PM2.5 exposure (2001-2005), when satellite data are available and the CMIP5 models are run in historical mode. The difference between these two approaches implies the role of meteorology in modulating PM2.5 exposure for future due to climate change. We present the decadal statistics and separate the role of meteorology from the combined role of meteorology and emission in modulating PM2.5 variability. We project premature mortality for future using population for future, projected under 5 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios (definitions of these scenarios are provided in Table 1) developed by IIASA. The population under these five scenarios have varying capability to adapt and mitigate to cope up with the changing climate. We estimate premature mortality for two cases, (i) assuming BM to remain constant as of the present day, and (ii) modifying the BM as a function of gross development product. Relative risk is estimated using the IER function. Hence we develop customized scenarios for estimating premature death by linking projected PM2.5 under 2 RCP scenarios with population and baseline mortality from 5 SSP scenarios for each decade up to 2100, creating a total of 10 combined scenarios for each decade. We project that if baseline mortality remains as of present day (WHO 2011) then premature mortality increases up to the middle of the century and then decreases, but never decreases below the present day premature mortality, whereas if we assume that baseline mortality varies as a exponentially decaying function of GDP, premature mortality for future decades are projected to decrease below the present day estimate of premature mortality as GDP is projected to increase in all the 5 SSP scenarios. We further separate the effect of future meteorology, epidemiological changes and demographic changes in future on projected premature mortality. This study can help in the government in developing policies for future in order to avert the projected mortality and follow all the requirements that the best case scenario deserves in order to mitigate the effect of PM2.5 on mortality.

Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

PubMed

van der Meer, Adriaan J; Hansen, Bettina E; Fattovich, Giovanna; Feld, Jordan J; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Dufour, Jean-François; Lammert, Frank; Duarte-Rojo, Andres; Manns, Michael P; Ieluzzi, Donatella; Zeuzem, Stefan; Hofmann, W Peter; de Knegt, Robert J; Veldt, Bart J; Janssen, Harry L A

2015-02-01

Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), male sex (HR=1.91, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.29, p=0.021), platelet count (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95, p<0.001) and log10 aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.51, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality (C statistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks <5%, 5-10% and >10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Clinical prediction models for mortality and functional outcome following ischemic stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Crayton, Elise; Wolfe, Charles; Douiri, Abdel

2018-01-01

Objective We aim to identify and critically appraise clinical prediction models of mortality and function following ischaemic stroke. Methods Electronic databases, reference lists, citations were searched from inception to September 2015. Studies were selected for inclusion, according to pre-specified criteria and critically appraised by independent, blinded reviewers. The discrimination of the prediction models was measured by the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve or c-statistic in random effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was measured using I2. Appropriate appraisal tools and reporting guidelines were used in this review. Results 31395 references were screened, of which 109 articles were included in the review. These articles described 66 different predictive risk models. Appraisal identified poor methodological quality and a high risk of bias for most models. However, all models precede the development of reporting guidelines for prediction modelling studies. Generalisability of models could be improved, less than half of the included models have been externally validated(n = 27/66). 152 predictors of mortality and 192 predictors and functional outcome were identified. No studies assessing ability to improve patient outcome (model impact studies) were identified. Conclusions Further external validation and model impact studies to confirm the utility of existing models in supporting decision-making is required. Existing models have much potential. Those wishing to predict stroke outcome are advised to build on previous work, to update and adapt validated models to their specific contexts opposed to designing new ones. PMID:29377923

Evaluation of community-acquired sepsis by PIRO system in the emergency department.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2013-09-01

The predisposition, infection/insult, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system for septic patients allows grouping of heterogeneous patients into homogeneous subgroups. The purposes of this single-center, prospective, observational cohort study were to create a PIRO system for patients with community-acquired sepsis (CAS) presenting to the emergency department (ED) and assess its prognostic and stratification capabilities. Septic patients were enrolled and allocated to derivation (n = 831) or validation (n = 860) cohorts according to their enrollment dates. The derivation cohort was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and create a PIRO system by binary logistic regression analysis, and the prognostic performance of PIRO was investigated in the validation cohort by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Ten independent predictors of 28-day mortality were identified. The PIRO system combined the components of predisposition (age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypoalbuminemia), infection (central nervous system infection), response (temperature, procalcitonin), and organ dysfunction (brain natriuretic peptide, troponin I, mean arterial pressure, Glasgow coma scale score). The area under the ROC of PIRO was 0.833 for the derivation cohort and 0.813 for the validation cohort. There was a stepwise increase in 28-day mortality with increasing PIRO score and the differences between the low- (PIRO 0-10), intermediate- (11-20), and high- (>20) risk groups were very significant in both cohorts (p < 0.01). The present study demonstrates that this PIRO system is valuable for prognosis and risk stratification in patients with CAS in the ED.

The performance and customization of SAPS 3 admission score in a Thai medical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Khwannimit, Bodin; Bhurayanontachai, Rungsun

2010-02-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) admission scores, both the original and a customized version, in mixed medical critically ill patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted over a 2-year period in the medical intensive care unit (MICU) of a tertiary referral university teaching hospital in Thailand. The probability of hospital mortality of the original SAPS 3 was calculated using the general and customized Australasia version (SAPS 3-AUS). The patients were randomly divided into equal calibration and validation groups for customization. A total of 1,873 patients were enrolled. The hospital mortality rate was 28.6%. The general equation of SAPS 3 had excellent discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.933, but poor calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H = 106.7 and C = 101.2 (P < 0.001), and it overestimated mortality with a standardized mortality ratio of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.93). The calibration of SAPS 3-AUS was also poor. The customized SAPS 3 showed a good calibration of all patients in the validation group (H = 14, P = 0.17 and C = 11.3, P = 0.33) and all subgroups according to main diagnosis, age, gender and co-morbidities. The SAPS 3 provided excellent discrimination but poor calibration in our MICU. A first level customization of the SAPS 3 improved the calibration and could be used to predict mortality and quality assessment in our ICU or other ICUs with a similar case mix.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

[Causes of death of German refugee children in 1945].

PubMed

Lylloff, K

2000-02-28

In the last months of the second World War, 250,000 German refugees landed in Denmark. A third of them were children under the age of 15. Seven thousand German refugee children under the age of five died in Denmark in 1945. Using birth certificates and death certificates from the Danish national archives and burial lists from the German refugee cemetaries I have collected data to reveal causes of death, age distributions and time of the deaths of the 7000 fatal cases among children under the age of five. Three thousand children under the age of one, 2000 children one year old and 2000 children 2-4 years old died. Most of them died just before and after the German surrender, but many died in the months following the German surrender. The infant mortality was extremely high all during 1945. The infants died from diseases due to malnutrition, but the older the children the more likely the causes of death were due to infectious diseases such as pneumonia, measles, diphtheria and gastroenteritis.

Cross-National Systematic Review of Neonatal Mortality and Postnatal Newborn Care: Special Focus on Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mansoor; Won, Youngjoon

2017-11-23

The latest nationwide survey of Pakistan showed that considerable progress has been made toward reducing all child mortality indicators except neonatal mortality. The aim of this study is to compare Pakistan's under-five mortality, neonatal mortality, and postnatal newborn care rates with those of other countries. Neonatal mortality rates and postnatal newborn care rates from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of nine low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) from Asia and Africa were analyzed. Pakistan's maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) policies and programs, which have been implemented in the country since 1990, were also analyzed. The results highlighted that postnatal newborn care in Pakistan was higher compared with the rest of countries, yet its neonatal mortality remained the worst. In Zimbabwe, both mortality rates have been increasing, whereas the neonatal mortality rates in Nepal and Afghanistan remained unchanged. An analysis of Pakistan's MNCH programs showed that there is no nationwide policy on neonatal health. There were only a few programs concerning the health of newborns, and those were limited in scale. Pakistan's example shows that increased coverage of neonatal care without ensuring quality is unlikely to improve neonatal survival rates. It is suggested that Pakistan needs a comprehensive policy on neonatal health similar to other countries, and its effective programs need to be scaled up, in order to obtain better neonatal health outcomes.

Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran.

PubMed

Baaghideh, Mohammad; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

2017-03-01

Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change. Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated. There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P -value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95%CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality. By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.

Social, economic, and political factors in progress towards improving child survival in developing nations.

PubMed

Lykens, Kristine; Singh, Karan P; Ndukwe, Elewichi; Bae, Sejong

2009-01-01

Child mortality is a persistent health problem faced by developing nations. In 2000 the United Nations (UN) established a set of high priority goals to address global problems of poverty and health, the Millennium Development Goals, which address extreme poverty, hunger, primary education, child mortality, maternal health, infectious diseases, environmental sustainability, and partnerships for development. Goal 4 aims to reduce by two thirds, between 2000 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2006 these rates have only been reduced from 167 per 1,000 live births to 157, and 27 nations in this region have made no progress towards the goal. A country-specific database was developed from the UN Millennium Development Goal tracking project and other international sources which include age distribution, under-nutrition, per capita income, government expenditures on health, external resources for health, civil liberties, and political rights. A multiple regression analysis examined the extent to which these factors explain the variance in child mortality rates in developing countries. Nutrition, external resources, and per capita income were shown to be significant factors in child survivability. Policy options include developed countries' renewed commitment of resources, and developing nations' commitments towards governance, development, equity, and transparency.

Corruption costs lives: a cross-country study using an IV approach.

PubMed

Lio, Mon-Chi; Lee, Ming-Hsuan

2016-04-01

This study quantitatively estimates the effects of corruption on five major health indicators by using recent cross-country panel data covering 119 countries for the period of 2005-2011. The corruption indicators provided by the World Bank and Transparency International are used, and both the two-way fixed effect and the two-stage least squares approaches are employed for our estimation. The estimation results show that, in general, corruption is negatively associated with a country's health outcomes. A lower level of corruption or a better control of corruption in a country can lead to longer life expectancy, a lower infant mortality rate and a lower under-five mortality rate for citizens. However, our estimation finds no significant association between corruption and individual diseases including human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and tuberculosis incidence. The findings suggest that corruption reduction itself is an effective method to promote health. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulations of forest mortality in Colorado River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, L.; Xu, C.; Johnson, D. J.; Zhou, H.; McDowell, N.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) had experienced multiple severe forest mortality events under the recent changing climate. Such forest mortality events may have great impacts on ecosystem services and water budget of the watershed. It is hence important to estimate and predict the forest mortality in the CRB with climate change. We simulated forest mortality in the CRB with a model of plant hydraulics within the FATES (the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator) coupled to the DOE Earth System model (ACME: Accelerated Climate Model of Energy) at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution. Moreover, we incorporated a stable carbon isotope (δ13C) module to ACME(FATE) and used it as a new predictor of forest mortality. The δ13C values of plants with C3 photosynthetic pathway (almost all trees are C3 plants) can indicate the water stress plants experiencing (the more intensive stress, the less negative δ13C value). We set a δ13C threshold in model simulation, above which forest mortality initiates. We validate the mortality simulations with field data based on Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which were aggregated into the same spatial resolution as the model simulations. Different mortality schemes in the model (carbon starvation, hydraulic failure, and δ13C) were tested and compared. Each scheme demonstrated its strength and the plant hydraulics module provided more reliable simulations of forest mortality than the earlier ACME(FATE) version. Further testing is required for better forest mortality modelling.

The definition of polytrauma revisited: An international consensus process and proposal of the new 'Berlin definition'

PubMed

Pape, Hans-Christoph; Lefering, Rolf; Butcher, Nerida; Peitzman, Andrew; Leenen, Luke; Marzi, Ingo; Lichte, Philip; Josten, Christoph; Bouillon, Bertil; Schmucker, Uli; Stahel, Philip; Giannoudis, Peter; Balogh, Zsolt

2014-11-01

The nomenclature for patients with multiple injuries with high mortality rates is highly variable, and there is a lack of a uniform definition of the term polytrauma. A consensus process was therefore initiated by a panel of international experts with the goal of assessing an improved, database-supported definition for the polytraumatized patient. The consensus process involved the following: RESULTS: A total of 28,211 patients in the trauma registry met the inclusion criteria. The mean (SD) age of the study cohort was 42.9 (20.2) years (72% males, 28% females). The mean (SD) ISS was 30.5 (12.2), with an overall mortality rate of 18.7% (n = 5,277) and an incidence of 3% of penetrating injuries (n = 886). Five independent physiologic variables were identified, and their individual cutoff values were calculated based on a set mortality rate of 30%: hypotension (systolic blood pressure ≤ 90 mm Hg), level of consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤ 8), acidosis (base excess ≤ -6.0), coagulopathy (international normalized ratio ≥ 1.4/partial thromboplastin time ≥ 40 seconds), and age (≥70 years). Based on several consensus meetings and a database analysis, the expert panel proposes the following parameters for a definition of "polytrauma": significant injuries of three or more points in two or more different anatomic AIS regions in conjunction with one or more additional variables from the five physiologic parameters. Further validation of this proposal should occur, favorably by mutivariate analyses of these parameters in a separate data set.

Verification of Data Accuracy in Japan Congenital Cardiovascular Surgery Database Including Its Postprocedural Complication Reports.

PubMed

Takahashi, Arata; Kumamaru, Hiraku; Tomotaki, Ai; Matsumura, Goki; Fukuchi, Eriko; Hirata, Yasutaka; Murakami, Arata; Hashimoto, Hideki; Ono, Minoru; Miyata, Hiroaki

2018-03-01

Japan Congenital Cardiovascluar Surgical Database (JCCVSD) is a nationwide registry whose data are used for health quality assessment and clinical research in Japan. We evaluated the completeness of case registration and the accuracy of recorded data components including postprocedural mortality and complications in the database via on-site data adjudication. We validated the records from JCCVSD 2010 to 2012 containing congenital cardiovascular surgery data performed in 111 facilities throughout Japan. We randomly chose nine facilities for site visit by the auditor team and conducted on-site data adjudication. We assessed whether the records in JCCVSD matched the data in the source materials. We identified 1,928 cases of eligible surgeries performed at the facilities, of which 1,910 were registered (99.1% completeness), with 6 cases of duplication and 1 inappropriate case registration. Data components including gender, age, and surgery time (hours) were highly accurate with 98% to 100% concordance. Mortality at discharge and at 30 and 90 postoperative days was 100% accurate. Among the five complications studied, reoperation was the most frequently observed, with 16 and 21 cases recorded in the database and source materials, respectively, having a sensitivity of 0.67 and a specificity of 0.99. Validation of JCCVSD database showed high registration completeness and high accuracy especially in the categorical data components. Adjudicated mortality was 100% accurate. While limited in numbers, the recorded cases of postoperative complications all had high specificities but had lower sensitivity (0.67-1.00). Continued activities for data quality improvement and assessment are necessary for optimizing the utility of these registries.

Global validation of the WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections: a prospective multicentre study (WISS Study).

PubMed

Sartelli, Massimo; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M; Catena, Fausto; Griffiths, Ewen A; Di Saverio, Salomone; Coimbra, Raul; Ordoñez, Carlos A; Leppaniemi, Ari; Fraga, Gustavo P; Coccolini, Federico; Agresta, Ferdinando; Abbas, Asrhaf; Abdel Kader, Saleh; Agboola, John; Amhed, Adamu; Ajibade, Adesina; Akkucuk, Seckin; Alharthi, Bandar; Anyfantakis, Dimitrios; Augustin, Goran; Baiocchi, Gianluca; Bala, Miklosh; Baraket, Oussama; Bayrak, Savas; Bellanova, Giovanni; Beltràn, Marcelo A; Bini, Roberto; Boal, Matthew; Borodach, Andrey V; Bouliaris, Konstantinos; Branger, Frederic; Brunelli, Daniele; Catani, Marco; Che Jusoh, Asri; Chichom-Mefire, Alain; Cocorullo, Gianfranco; Colak, Elif; Costa, David; Costa, Silvia; Cui, Yunfeng; Curca, Geanina Loredana; Curry, Terry; Das, Koray; Delibegovic, Samir; Demetrashvili, Zaza; Di Carlo, Isidoro; Drozdova, Nadezda; El Zalabany, Tamer; Enani, Mushira Abdulaziz; Faro, Mario; Gachabayov, Mahir; Giménez Maurel, Teresa; Gkiokas, Georgios; Gomes, Carlos Augusto; Gonsaga, Ricardo Alessandro Teixeira; Guercioni, Gianluca; Guner, Ali; Gupta, Sanjay; Gutierrez, Sandra; Hutan, Martin; Ioannidis, Orestis; Isik, Arda; Izawa, Yoshimitsu; Jain, Sumita A; Jokubauskas, Mantas; Karamarkovic, Aleksandar; Kauhanen, Saila; Kaushik, Robin; Kenig, Jakub; Khokha, Vladimir; Kim, Jae Il; Kong, Victor; Koshy, Renol; Krasniqi, Avidyl; Kshirsagar, Ashok; Kuliesius, Zygimantas; Lasithiotakis, Konstantinos; Leão, Pedro; Lee, Jae Gil; Leon, Miguel; Lizarazu Pérez, Aintzane; Lohsiriwat, Varut; López-Tomassetti Fernandez, Eudaldo; Lostoridis, Eftychios; Mn, Raghuveer; Major, Piotr; Marinis, Athanasios; Marrelli, Daniele; Martinez-Perez, Aleix; Marwah, Sanjay; McFarlane, Michael; Melo, Renato Bessa; Mesina, Cristian; Michalopoulos, Nick; Moldovanu, Radu; Mouaqit, Ouadii; Munyika, Akutu; Negoi, Ionut; Nikolopoulos, Ioannis; Nita, Gabriela Elisa; Olaoye, Iyiade; Omari, Abdelkarim; Ossa, Paola Rodríguez; Ozkan, Zeynep; Padmakumar, Ramakrishnapillai; Pata, Francesco; Pereira Junior, Gerson Alves; Pereira, Jorge; Pintar, Tadeja; Pouggouras, Konstantinos; Prabhu, Vinod; Rausei, Stefano; Rems, Miran; Rios-Cruz, Daniel; Sakakushev, Boris; Sánchez de Molina, Maria Luisa; Seretis, Charampolos; Shelat, Vishal; Simões, Romeo Lages; Sinibaldi, Giovanni; Skrovina, Matej; Smirnov, Dmitry; Spyropoulos, Charalampos; Tepp, Jaan; Tezcaner, Tugan; Tolonen, Matti; Torba, Myftar; Ulrych, Jan; Uzunoglu, Mustafa Yener; van Dellen, David; van Ramshorst, Gabrielle H; Vasquez, Giorgio; Venara, Aurélien; Vereczkei, Andras; Vettoretto, Nereo; Vlad, Nutu; Yadav, Sanjay Kumar; Yilmaz, Tonguç Utku; Yuan, Kuo-Ching; Zachariah, Sanoop Koshy; Zida, Maurice; Zilinskas, Justas; Ansaloni, Luca

2015-01-01

To validate a new practical Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) including the clinical conditions at the admission (severe sepsis/septic shock), the origin of the cIAIs, the delay in source control, the setting of acquisition and any risk factors such as age and immunosuppression. The WISS study (WSES cIAIs Score Study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 132 medical institutions worldwide during a four-month study period (October 2014-February 2015). Four thousand five hundred thirty-three patients with a mean age of 51.2 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the WISS study. Univariate analysis has shown that all factors that were previously included in the WSES Sepsis Severity Score were highly statistically significant between those who died and those who survived (p < 0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression model was highly significant (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.54) and showed that all these factors were independent in predicting mortality of sepsis. Receiver Operator Curve has shown that the WSES Severity Sepsis Score had an excellent prediction for mortality. A score above 5.5 was the best predictor of mortality having a sensitivity of 89.2 %, a specificity of 83.5 % and a positive likelihood ratio of 5.4. WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated Intra-abdominal infections can be used on global level. It has shown high sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio that may help us in making clinical decisions.

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Impact of Accurate 30-Day Status on Operative Mortality: Wanted Dead or Alive, Not Unknown.

PubMed

Ring, W Steves; Edgerton, James R; Herbert, Morley; Prince, Syma; Knoff, Cathy; Jenkins, Kristin M; Jessen, Michael E; Hamman, Baron L

2017-12-01

Risk-adjusted operative mortality is the most important quality metric in cardiac surgery for determining The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Composite Score for star ratings. Accurate 30-day status is required to determine STS operative mortality. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of unknown or missing 30-day status on risk-adjusted operative mortality in a regional STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database cooperative and demonstrate the ability to correct these deficiencies by matching with an administrative database. STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data were submitted by 27 hospitals from five hospital systems to the Texas Quality Initiative (TQI), a regional quality collaborative. TQI data were matched with a regional hospital claims database to resolve unknown 30-day status. The risk-adjusted operative mortality observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio was determined before and after matching to determine the effect of unknown status on the operative mortality O/E. TQI found an excessive (22%) unknown 30-day status for STS isolated coronary artery bypass grafting cases. Matching the TQI data to the administrative claims database reduced the unknowns to 7%. The STS process of imputing unknown 30-day status as alive underestimates the true operative mortality O/E (1.27 before vs 1.30 after match), while excluding unknowns overestimates the operative mortality O/E (1.57 before vs 1.37 after match) for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The current STS algorithm of imputing unknown 30-day status as alive and a strategy of excluding cases with unknown 30-day status both result in erroneous calculation of operative mortality and operative mortality O/E. However, external validation by matching with an administrative database can improve the accuracy of clinical databases such as the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Multiscale Simulation Framework to Investigate Hydrobiogeochemical Processes in the Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibe, T. D.; Yang, X.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Hou, Z.; Murray, C. J.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Can the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 Score on Day 1 Be Used in Clinical Criteria for Sepsis in Children?

PubMed

Leclerc, Francis; Duhamel, Alain; Deken, Valérie; Grandbastien, Bruno; Leteurtre, Stéphane

2017-08-01

A recent task force has proposed the use of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in clinical criteria for sepsis in adults. We sought to evaluate the predictive validity for PICU mortality of the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 and of the "quick" Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 scores on day 1 in children with suspected infection. Secondary analysis of the database used for the development and validation of the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2. Nine university-affiliated PICUs in Europe. Only children with hypotension-low systolic blood pressure or low mean blood pressure using age-adapted cutoffs-and lactatemia greater than 2 mmol/L were considered in shock. We developed the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 including tachycardia, hypotension, and altered mentation (Glasgow < 11): one point for each variable (range, 0-3). Outcome was mortality at PICU discharge. Discrimination (Area under receiver operating characteristic curve-95% CI) and calibration (goodness of fit test) of the scores were studied. This study included 862 children with suspected infection (median age: 12.3 mo; mortality: n = 60 [7.0%]). Area under the curve of the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 was 0.91 (0.86-0.96) in children with suspected infection, 0.88 (0.79-0.96) in those with low systolic blood pressure and hyperlactatemia, and 0.91 (0.85-0.97) in those with low mean blood pressure and hyperlactatemia; calibration p value was 0.03, 0.36, and 0.49, respectively. A Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 greater than or equal to 8 reflected an overall risk of mortality greater than or equal to 9.3% in children with suspected infection. Area under the curve of the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 was 0.82 (0.76-0.87) with systolic blood pressure or mean blood pressure; calibration p value was 0.89 and 0.72, respectively. A score greater than or equal to 2 reflected a mortality risk greater than or equal to 19.8% with systolic blood pressure and greater than or equal to 15.9% with mean blood pressure. Among children admitted to PICU with suspected infection, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 was highly predictive of PICU mortality suggesting its use to standardize definitions and diagnostic criteria of pediatric sepsis. Further studies are needed to determine the usefulness of the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score on day 1 outside of the PICU.

Home management of diarrhea among underfives in a rural community in Kenya: household perceptions and practices.

PubMed

Othero, Doreen M; Orago, Alloys S S; Groenewegen, Ted; Kaseje, Dan O; Otengah, P A

2008-12-01

Diarrheal disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among under-fives especially in rural and peri-urban communities in developing countries. Home management of diarrhea is one of the key household practices targeted for enhancement in the Community Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (C-IMCI) strategy. The aim of this study was to determine the perceptions of mothers/caregivers regarding the causes of diarrhea among under-fives and how it was managed in the home before seeking help from Community Health Workers or health facilities. A household longitudinal study was conducted in Nyando district, Kenya in 2004-2006 adopting both qualitative and quantitative approaches. A total of 927 mothers/caregivers of under-fives participated in the study. Perceived causes of childhood diarrhoea, action taken during diarrhea, fluid intake, recognition of signs of dehydration, feeding during convalescence, adherence to treatment and advice. Majority of the respondents 807 (87.1%) reported that their children had suffered from diarrhea within the last 2 weeks before commencement of the study. Diarrhea was found to contribute to 48% of child mortality in the study area. Perceived causes of diarrhea were: unclean water 524 (55.6%), contaminated food 508 (54.9%), bad eye 464 (50.0%), false teeth 423 (45.6%) and breast milk 331 (35.8%). More than 70% of mothers decreased fluid intake during diarrhea episodes. The mothers perceived wheat flour, rice water and selected herbs as anti-diarrheal agents. During illness, 239 (27.8%) of the children were reported not to have drunk any fluids at all, 487 (52.5%) drunk much less and only 93 (10.0%) were reported to have drunk more than usual. A significant 831 (89.6%) withheld milk including breast milk with the notion that it enhanced diarrhea. Based on these findings, there is need to develop and implement interactive communication strategies for the health workers and mothers to address perceptions and misconceptions and facilitate positive change in the household practice on management of diarrhea among under-fives.

Driving Pressure and Hospital Mortality in Patients Without ARDS: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Schmidt, Marcello F S; Amaral, Andre C K B; Fan, Eddy; Rubenfeld, Gordon D

2018-01-01

Driving pressure (ΔP) is associated with mortality in patients with ARDS and with pulmonary complications in patients undergoing general anesthesia. Whether ΔP is associated with outcomes of patients without ARDS who undergo ventilation in the ICU is unknown. Our objective was to determine the independent association between ΔP and outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients without ARDS on day 1 of mechanical ventilation. This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 622 mechanically ventilated adult patients without ARDS on day 1 of mechanical ventilation from five ICUs in a tertiary center in the United States. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The presence of ARDS was determined using the minimum daily Pao 2 to Fio 2 (PF) ratio and an automated text search of chest radiography reports. The data set was validated by first testing the model in 543 patients with ARDS. In patients without ARDS on day 1 of mechanical ventilation, ΔP was not independently associated with hospital mortality (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.97-1.05). The results of the primary analysis were confirmed in a series of preplanned sensitivity analyses. In this cohort of patients without ARDS on day 1 of mechanical ventilation and within the limits of ventilatory settings normally used by clinicians, ΔP was not associated with hospital mortality. This study also confirms the association between ΔP and mortality in patients with ARDS not enrolled in a trial and in hypoxemic patients without ARDS. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jake; Lambert, Adrian J; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D; Partridge, Linda

2010-08-01

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.

Biomarkers of ageing in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Jake; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D.; Partridge, Linda

2015-01-01

Summary Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. DR thus does not slow accumulation of ageing-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of ageing-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of ageing-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of ageing-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of ageing-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidised and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of ageing-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of ageing. PMID:20367621

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Factors associated with bat mortality at wind energy facilities in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Maureen; Beston, Julie A.; Etterson, Matthew A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott R.

2017-01-01

Hundreds of thousands of bats are killed annually by colliding with wind turbines in the U.S., yet little is known about factors causing variation in mortality across wind energy facilities. We conducted a quantitative synthesis of bat collision mortality with wind turbines by reviewing 218 North American studies representing 100 wind energy facilities. This data set, the largest compiled for bats to date, provides further evidence that collision mortality is greatest for migratory tree-roosting species (Hoary Bat [Lasiurus cinereus], Eastern Red Bat [Lasiurus borealis], Silver-haired Bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) and from July to October. Based on 40 U.S. studies meeting inclusion criteria and analyzed under a common statistical framework to account for methodological variation, we found support for an inverse relationship between bat mortality and percent grassland cover surrounding wind energy facilities. At a national scale, grassland cover may best reflect openness of the landscape, a factor generally associated with reduced activity and abundance of tree-roosting species that may also reduce turbine collisions. Further representative sampling of wind energy facilities is required to validate this pattern. Ecologically informed placement of wind energy facilities involves multiple considerations, including not only factors associated with bat mortality, but also factors associated with bird collision mortality, indirect habitat-related impacts to all species, and overall ecosystem impacts.

Clinical global assessment of nutritional status as predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients

PubMed Central

Dai, Lu; Mukai, Hideyuki; Lindholm, Bengt; Heimbürger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter

2017-01-01

Background The value of subjective global assessment (SGA) as nutritional assessor of protein-energy wasting (PEWSGA) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients depends on its mortality predictive capacity. We investigated associations of PEWSGA with markers of nutritional status and all-cause mortality in CKD patients. Methods In 1031 (732 CKD1-5 non-dialysis and 299 dialysis) patients, SGA and body (BMI), lean (LBMI) and fat (FBMI) body mass indices, % handgrip strength (% HGS), serum albumin, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were examined at baseline. The five-year all-cause mortality predictive strength of baseline PEWSGA and during follow-up were investigated. Results PEWSGA was present in 2% of CKD1-2, 16% of CKD3-4, 31% of CKD5 non-dialysis and 44% of dialysis patients. Patients with PEWSGA (n = 320; 31%) had higher hsCRP and lower BMI, LBMI, FBMI, %HGS and serum albumin. But, using receiver operating characteristics-derived cutoffs, these markers could not classify (by kappa statistic) or explain variations of (by multinomial logistic regression analysis) presence of PEWSGA. In generalized linear models, SGA independently predicted mortality after adjustments of multiple confounders (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11–1.23). Among 323 CKD5 patients who were re-assessed after median 12.6 months, 222 (69%) remained well-nourished, 37 (11%) developed PEWSGA de novo, 40 (12%) improved while 24 (8%) remained with PEWSGA. The latter independently predicted mortality (RR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13–1.46). Conclusions SGA, a valid assessor of nutritional status, is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality both in CKD non-dialysis and dialysis patients that outperforms non-composite nutritional markers as prognosticator. PMID:29211778

Clinical global assessment of nutritional status as predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients.

PubMed

Dai, Lu; Mukai, Hideyuki; Lindholm, Bengt; Heimbürger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid

2017-01-01

The value of subjective global assessment (SGA) as nutritional assessor of protein-energy wasting (PEWSGA) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients depends on its mortality predictive capacity. We investigated associations of PEWSGA with markers of nutritional status and all-cause mortality in CKD patients. In 1031 (732 CKD1-5 non-dialysis and 299 dialysis) patients, SGA and body (BMI), lean (LBMI) and fat (FBMI) body mass indices, % handgrip strength (% HGS), serum albumin, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were examined at baseline. The five-year all-cause mortality predictive strength of baseline PEWSGA and during follow-up were investigated. PEWSGA was present in 2% of CKD1-2, 16% of CKD3-4, 31% of CKD5 non-dialysis and 44% of dialysis patients. Patients with PEWSGA (n = 320; 31%) had higher hsCRP and lower BMI, LBMI, FBMI, %HGS and serum albumin. But, using receiver operating characteristics-derived cutoffs, these markers could not classify (by kappa statistic) or explain variations of (by multinomial logistic regression analysis) presence of PEWSGA. In generalized linear models, SGA independently predicted mortality after adjustments of multiple confounders (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11-1.23). Among 323 CKD5 patients who were re-assessed after median 12.6 months, 222 (69%) remained well-nourished, 37 (11%) developed PEWSGA de novo, 40 (12%) improved while 24 (8%) remained with PEWSGA. The latter independently predicted mortality (RR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13-1.46). SGA, a valid assessor of nutritional status, is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality both in CKD non-dialysis and dialysis patients that outperforms non-composite nutritional markers as prognosticator.

Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

PubMed

Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

2017-04-01

To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P < .001). Life-space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Predictors of the number of under-five malnourished children in Bangladesh: application of the generalized poisson regression model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malnutrition is one of the principal causes of child mortality in developing countries including Bangladesh. According to our knowledge, most of the available studies, that addressed the issue of malnutrition among under-five children, considered the categorical (dichotomous/polychotomous) outcome variables and applied logistic regression (binary/multinomial) to find their predictors. In this study malnutrition variable (i.e. outcome) is defined as the number of under-five malnourished children in a family, which is a non-negative count variable. The purposes of the study are (i) to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and (ii) to find some predictors of this outcome variable. Methods The data is extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007. Briefly, this survey employs a nationally representative sample which is based on a two-stage stratified sample of households. A total of 4,460 under-five children is analysed using various statistical techniques namely Chi-square test and GPR model. Results The GPR model (as compared to the standard Poisson regression and negative Binomial regression) is found to be justified to study the above-mentioned outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance < mean) property. Our study also identify several significant predictors of the outcome variable namely mother’s education, father’s education, wealth index, sanitation status, source of drinking water, and total number of children ever born to a woman. Conclusions Consistencies of our findings in light of many other studies suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models to analyse the number of under-five malnourished children in a family. Strategies based on significant predictors may improve the nutritional status of children in Bangladesh. PMID:23297699

Is sibling rivalry fatal?: siblings and mortality clustering.

PubMed

Kippen, Rebecca; Walters, Sarah

2012-01-01

Evidence drawn from nineteenth-century Belgian population registers shows that the presence of similarly aged siblings competing for resources within a household increases the probability of death for children younger than five, even when controlling for the preceding birth interval and multiple births. Furthermore, in this period of Belgian history, such mortality tended to cluster in certain families. The findings suggest the importance of segmenting the mortality of siblings younger than five by age group, of considering the presence of siblings as a time-varying covariate, and of factoring mortality clustering into analyses.

Determinants and development of a web-based child mortality prediction model in resource-limited settings: A data mining approach.

PubMed

Tesfaye, Brook; Atique, Suleman; Elias, Noah; Dibaba, Legesse; Shabbir, Syed-Abdul; Kebede, Mihiretu

2017-03-01

Improving child health and reducing child mortality rate are key health priorities in developing countries. This study aimed to identify determinant sand develop, a web-based child mortality prediction model in Ethiopian local language using classification data mining algorithm. Decision tree (using J48 algorithm) and rule induction (using PART algorithm) techniques were applied on 11,654 records of Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA) for windows version 3.6.8 was used to develop optimal models. 8157 (70%) records were randomly allocated to training group for model building while; the remaining 3496 (30%) records were allocated as the test group for model validation. The validation of the model was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0; logistic regressions and Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to identify determinants of child mortality. The child mortality rate was 72 deaths per 1000 live births. Breast-feeding (AOR= 1.46, (95% CI [1.22. 1.75]), maternal education (AOR= 1.40, 95% CI [1.11, 1.81]), family planning (AOR= 1.21, [1.08, 1.43]), preceding birth interval (AOR= 4.90, [2.94, 8.15]), presence of diarrhea (AOR= 1.54, 95% CI [1.32, 1.66]), father's education (AOR= 1.4, 95% CI [1.04, 1.78]), low birth weight (AOR= 1.2, 95% CI [0.98, 1.51]) and, age of the mother at first birth (AOR= 1.42, [1.01-1.89]) were found to be determinants for child mortality. The J48 model had better performance, accuracy (94.3%), sensitivity (93.8%), specificity (94.3%), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) (92.2%), Negative Predictive Value (NPV) (94.5%) and, the area under ROC (94.8%). Subsequent to developing an optimal prediction model, we relied on this model to develop a web-based application system for child mortality prediction. In this study, nearly accurate results were obtained by employing decision tree and rule induction techniques. Determinants are identified and a web-based child mortality prediction model in Ethiopian local language is developed. Thus, the result obtained could support child health intervention programs in Ethiopia where trained human resource for health is limited. Advanced classification algorithms need to be tested to come up with optimal models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings.

PubMed

Cowling, Benjamin J; Muller, Matthew P; Wong, Irene O L; Ho, Lai-Ming; Lo, Su-Vui; Tsang, Thomas; Lam, Tai Hing; Louie, Marie; Leung, Gabriel M

2006-07-24

An accurate prognostic model for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) could provide a practical clinical decision aid. We developed and validated prognostic rules for both high- and low-resource settings based on data available at the time of admission. We analyzed data on all 1755 and 291 patients with SARS in Hong Kong (derivation cohort) and Toronto (validation cohort), respectively, using a multivariable logistic scoring method with internal and external validation. Scores were assigned on the basis of patient history in a basic model, and a full model additionally incorporated radiological and laboratory results. The main outcome measure was death. Predictors for mortality in the basic model included older age, male sex, and the presence of comorbid conditions. Additional predictors in the full model included haziness or infiltrates on chest radiography, less than 95% oxygen saturation on room air, high lactate dehydrogenase level, and high neutrophil and low platelet counts. The basic model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.860 in the derivation cohort, which was maintained on external validation with an area under the ROC curve of 0.882. The full model improved discrimination with areas under the ROC curve of 0.877 and 0.892 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model performs well and could be useful in assessing prognosis for patients who are infected with re-emergent SARS.

Can a quality improvement project impact maternal and child health outcomes at scale in northern Ghana?

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Speizer, Ilene; Barker, Pierre; Amenga-Etego, Issac; Dasoberi, Ireneous; Kanyoke, Ernest; Boadu, Eric A; Yabang, Elma; Sodzi-Tettey, Sodzi

2016-06-16

Quality improvement (QI) interventions are becoming more common in low- and middle-income countries, yet few studies have presented impact evaluations of these approaches. In this paper, we present an impact evaluation of a scale-up phase of 'Project Fives Alive!', a QI intervention in Ghana that aims to improve maternal and child health outcomes. 'Project Fives Alive!' employed a QI methodology to recognize barriers to care-seeking and care provision at the facility level and then to identify, test and implement simple and low-cost local solutions that address the barriers. A quasi-experimental design, multivariable interrupted time series analysis, with data coming from 744 health facilities and controlling for potential confounding factors, was used to study the effect of the project. The key independent variables were the change categories (interventions implemented) and implementation phase - Wave 2a (early phase) versus Wave 2b (later phase). The outcomes studied were early antenatal care (ANC), skilled delivery, facility-level under-five mortality and attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. We stratified the analysis by facility type, namely health posts, health centres and hospitals. Several of the specific change categories were significantly associated with improved outcomes. For example, three of five change categories (early ANC, four or more ANC visits and skilled delivery/immediate postnatal care (PNC)) for health posts and two of five change categories (health education and triage) for hospitals were associated with increased skilled delivery. These change categories were associated with increases in skilled delivery varying from 28% to 58%. PNC changes for health posts and health centres were associated with greater attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. The triage change category was associated with increased early antenatal care in hospitals. Intensity, the number of change categories tested, was associated with increased skilled delivery in health centres and reduced under-five mortality in hospitals. Using an innovative evaluation technique we determined that 'Project Fives Alive!' demonstrated impact at scale for the outcomes studied. The QI approach used by this project should be considered by other low- and middle-income countries in their efforts to improve maternal and child health.

A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years.

PubMed

Paredes-Aracil, Esther; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Ots-Gutiérrez, José Ramón; Compañ-Rosique, Antonio Fernando; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2017-03-24

Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003-2016. time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.

Early Childhood and Education Services for Indigenous Children Prior to Starting School. Resource Sheet No. 7 for the Closing the Gap Clearinghouse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sims, Margaret

2011-01-01

The National Partnership Agreement for Indigenous Early Childhood Development (COAG 2008a) aims to halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade, halve the gap for Indigenous students in reading, writing and numeracy within a decade, and ensure all Indigenous 4-year-olds have access to quality early childhood…

Mortality of children under five and prevalence of newborn congenital anomalies in relation to macroeconomic and socioeconomic factors in Latvia.

PubMed

Ebela, Inguna; Zile, Irisa; Zakis, Aleksandrs; Folkmanis, Valdis; Rumba-Rozenfelde, Ingrida

2011-01-01

Mortality of infants and children younger than 5 years is a globally recognized and broad national welfare indicator. Scientific literature has data on the correlation of mortality indicators with macroeconomic indicators. It is important to study the associations between prevalence and mortality indicators and socioeconomic factors, since deaths from congenital anomalies account for approximately 25%-30% of all deaths in infancy. The aim of the study was to analyze the overall trend in mortality of infants and young children aged 0 to 4 years in relation to macroeconomic factors in Latvia and prevalence of congenital anomalies in newborns in relation to socioeconomic factors. The Newborns' Register and Causes of Death Register were used as data sources; data on specific socioeconomic factors were retrieved from the Central Statistics Office. The results of the study show a strong correlation between mortality in children younger than 5 years and gross domestic product, as well as health budget in LVL per capita and the national unemployment level. The average decrease in infant mortality from congenital anomalies in Latvia was found to be 6.8 cases per 100,000 live births. There is a strong correlation between child mortality and socioeconomic situation in the country. There is a need to analyze the data on child mortality in a transnational context on a regular basis and studying the correlations between child mortality indicators and socioeconomic indicators and health care management parameters.

Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccord, G. C.

2014-12-01

Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis

PubMed Central

Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-01-01

Objectives This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. Design We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. Participants children aged under five years. Settings 34 countries in SSA. Main outcome measures Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. Results We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. Conclusions This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency. PMID:24334911

Natural mortality: Its ecology, how it shapes fish life histories, and why it may be increased by fishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Christian; Holt, Rebecca E.

2013-01-01

A stronger focus on natural mortality may be required to better understand contemporary changes in fish life histories and behaviour and their responses to anthropogenic drivers. Firstly, natural mortality is the selection under which fish evolved in the first place, so a theoretical understanding of effects of natural mortality alone is needed. Secondly, due to trade-offs, most organismal functions can only be achieved at some cost in terms of survival. Several trade-offs might need to be analysed simultaneously with effects on natural mortality being a common currency. Thirdly, there is scattered evidence that natural mortality has been increasing, some would say dramatically, in some fished stocks, which begs explanations. Fourthly, natural mortality most often implies transfer of mass and energy from one species to another, and therefore has foodweb and ecosystem consequences. We therefore analyse a model for evolution of fish life histories and behaviour, where state-dependent energy-allocation and growth strategies are found by optimization. Natural mortality is split into five different components, each specified as the outcome of individual traits and ecological trade-offs: a fixed baseline mortality; size-dependent predation; risk-dependent growth strategy; a fixed mortality when sexually mature; and mortality increasing with reproductive investment. The analysis is repeated with and without fishing. Each component of natural mortality has consequences for optimal life history strategies. Beyond earlier models, we show i) how the two types of reproductive mortality sometimes have similar and sometimes contrasting effects on life history evolution, ii) how ecosystem properties such as food availability and predation levels have stronger effects on optimal strategies than changing other mortality components, and iii) how expected changes in risk-dependent growth strategies are highly variable depending on the type of mortality changed.

Lethal Dysregulation of Energy Metabolism During Embryonic Vitamin E Deficiency

PubMed Central

McDougall, Melissa; Choi, Jaewoo; Kim, Hye-Kyeong; Bobe, Gerd; Stevens, J. Frederik; Cadenas, Enrique; Tanguay, Robert; Traber, Maret G.

2017-01-01

Vitamin E (α-tocopherol, VitE) was discovered in 1922 for its role in preventing embryonic mortality. We investigated the underlying mechanisms causing lethality using targeted metabolomics analyses of zebrafish VitE-deficient embryos over five days of development, which coincided with their increased morbidity and mortality. VitE deficiency resulted in peroxidation of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), depleting DHA-containing phospholipids, especially phosphatidylcholine, which also caused choline depletion. This increased lipid peroxidation also increased NADPH oxidation, which depleted glucose by shunting it to the pentose phosphate pathway. VitE deficiency was associated with mitochondrial dysfunction with concomitant impairment of energy homeostasis. The observed morbidity and mortality outcomes could be attenuated, but not fully reversed, by glucose injection into VitE-deficient embryos at developmental day one. Thus, embryonic VitE deficiency in vertebrates leads to a metabolic reprogramming that adversely affects methyl donor status and cellular energy homeostasis with lethal outcomes. PMID:28095320

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2016-01-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991–2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). PMID:27468328

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does admission via an acute medical unit influence hospital mortality? 12 years' experience in a large Dublin hospital.

PubMed

Coary, R; Byrne, D; O'Riordan, D; Conway, R; Cournane, S; Silke, B

2014-01-01

Following an emergency medical admission, patients may be admitted an acute medical assessment unit (AMAU) or directly into a ward. An AMAU provides a structured environment for their initial assessment and treatment. All emergency admissions (66,933 episodes in 36,271 patients) to an Irish hospital over an 12-year period (2002-2013) were studied with 30-day in-hospital mortality as the outcome measure. Univariate Odds Ratios, by initial patient allocation, and the fully adjusted Odds Ratios were calculated, using a validated logistic regression model. Patients, by design, were intended to be admitted initially to the AMAU (<= 5 day stay). Capacity constraints dictated that only 39.8% of patients were so admitted; the remainder bypassed the AMAU to a ward (60.2%). All patients remained under the care of the admitting consultant/team. We computed the risk profile for each group, using a multiple variable validated model of 30-day in-hospital mortality; the model indicated the same risk profile between these groups. The univariate OR of an in-hospital death by day 30 for a patient initially allocated to the AMAU, compared with an initial ward allocation was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.82- p<0.001). The fully adjusted risk for patients was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.73- p<0.001). Patients, with equivalent mortality risk, allocated initially to AMAU or a more traditional ward, appeared to have substantially different outcomes.

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Impact of heatwave on mortality under different heatwave definitions: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard; Guo, Yuming; Jalaludin, Bin; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

Heatwave effects on human health and wellbeing is a great public health concern, especially in the context of climate change. However, no universally consistent heatwave definition is available. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the heatwave definitions used in the literature published up to 1st April 2015 by searching five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science). Random-effects models were used to pool the effects of heatwave on total and cardiorespiratory mortality by different heatwave definitions. Existing evidence suggests a significant impact of heatwave on mortality, but the magnitude of the effect estimates varies under different heatwave definitions. Heatwave-related mortality risks increased by 4% (using "mean temperatures ≥95th percentile for ≥2days" as a heatwave definition), 3% (mean temperatures ≥98th percentile for ≥2days), 7% (mean temperatures ≥99th percentile for ≥2days) and 16% (mean temperatures ≥97th percentile for ≥5days). Heatwave intensity plays a relatively more important role than duration in determining heatwave-related deaths. Heatwaves significantly increase mortality across the globe, but the effect estimates vary with the definition of heatwaves. City- or region-specific heat health early warning systems based on identified local heatwave definitions may be optimal for protecting and preventing people from the adverse impacts of future heatwaves. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

Measuring progress in maternal and newborn health care in Mexico: validating indicators of health system contact and quality of care.

PubMed

Blanc, Ann K; Diaz, Claudia; McCarthy, Katharine J; Berdichevsky, Karla

2016-08-30

The majority of births in Mexico take place in a health facility and are attended by a skilled birth attendant, yet maternal mortality has not declined to anticipated levels. Coverage estimates of skilled attendance and other maternal and newborn interventions often rely on women's self-report through a population-based survey, the accuracy of which is not well established. We used a facility-based design to validate women's report of skilled birth attendance, as well as other key elements of maternal, newborn intrapartum, and immediate postnatal care. Women's reports of labor and delivery care were collected by exit interview prior to hospital discharge and were compared against direct observation by a trained third party in a Mexican public hospital (n = 597). For each indicator, validity was assessed at the individual level using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and at the population level using the inflation factor (IF). Five of 47 indicators met both validation criteria (AUC > 0.60 and 0.75 < IF < 1.25): urine sample screen, injection or IV medication received during labor, before the birth of the baby (i.e., uterotonic for either induction or augmentation of labor), episiotomy, excessive bleeding, and receipt of blood products. An additional 9 indicators met criteria for the AUC and 18 met criteria for the IF. A skilled attendant indicator had high sensitivity (90.1 %: 95 % CI: 87.1-92.5 %), low specificity (14.0 %: 95 % CI: 5.8-26.7 %) and was suitable for population-level estimation only. Women are able to give valid reports on some aspects of the content of care, although questions regarding the indication for interventions are less likely to be known. Questions that include technical terms or refer to specific time periods tended to have lower response levels. A key aspect of efforts to improve maternal and newborn health requires valid measurement of women's access to maternal and newborn health interventions and the quality of such services. Additional work on improving measurement of population coverage indicators is warranted.

Development of the Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator for prediction of postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit admission risk: a single-center retrospective study.

PubMed

Chan, Diana Xin Hui; Sim, Yilin Eileen; Chan, Yiong Huak; Poopalalingam, Ruban; Abdullah, Hairil Rizal

2018-03-23

Accurate surgical risk prediction is paramount in clinical shared decision making. Existing risk calculators have limited value in local practice due to lack of validation, complexities and inclusion of non-routine variables. We aim to develop a simple, locally derived and validated surgical risk calculator predicting 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay (>24 hours) based on routinely collected preoperative variables. We postulate that accuracy of a clinical history-based scoring tool could be improved by including readily available investigations, such as haemoglobin level and red cell distribution width. Electronic medical records of 90 785 patients, who underwent non-cardiac and non-neuro surgery between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 in Singapore General Hospital, were retrospectively analysed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, surgical priority and surgical risk were collected. Outcome measures were death within 30 days after surgery and ICU admission. After excluding patients with missing data, the final data set consisted of 79 914 cases, which was divided randomly into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a single model predicting both outcomes using Odds Ratio (OR) of the risk variables. The ORs were then assigned ranks, which were subsequently used to construct the calculator. Observed mortality was 0.6%. The Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator, consisting of nine variables, was constructed. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) in the derivation and validation cohorts for mortality were 0.934 (0.917-0.950) and 0.934 (0.912-0.956), respectively, while the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.863 (0.848-0.878) and 0.837 (0.808-0.868), respectively. CARES also performed better than the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status classification in terms of AUROC comparison. The development of the CARES surgical risk calculator allows for a simplified yet accurate prediction of both postoperative mortality and need for ICU admission after surgery. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Validation and Adjustment of the Leipzig-Halifax Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Scorecard.

PubMed

Mejàre-Berggren, Hanna; Olsson, Christian

2017-11-01

The novel Leipzig-Halifax (LH) scorecard for acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) stratifies risk of in-hospital death based on age, malperfusion syndromes, critical preoperative state, and coronary disease. The study aim was to externally validate the LH scorecard performance and, if adequate, propose adjustments. All consecutive AADA patients operated on from 1996 to 2016 (n = 509) were included to generate an external validation cohort. Variables related to in-hospital death were analyzed using univariable and multivariable analysis. The LH scorecard was applied to the validation cohort, compared with the original study, and variable selection was adjusted using validation measures for discrimination and calibration. In-hospital mortality rate was 17.7% (LH cohort 18.7%). Critical preoperative state and Penn class non-Aa were independent predictors (odds ratio [OR] 2.42 and 2.45, respectively) of in-hospital death. The LH scorecard was adjusted to include Penn class non-Aa, critical preoperative state, and coronary disease. Assessing discrimination, area under receiver operator characteristic curve for the LH scorecard was 0.61 versus 0.66 for the new scorecard (p = 0.086). In-hospital mortality rates in low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 14%, 15%, and 48%, respectively (LH scorecard) versus 11%, 23%, and 43%, respectively (new scorecard), and goodness-of-fit p value was 0.01 versus 0.86, indicating better calibration by the new scorecard. A lower Akaike information criterion value, 464 versus 448, favored the new scorecard. Through adjustment of the LH scorecard after external validation, prognostic performance improved. Further validated, the LH scorecard could be a valuable risk prediction tool. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative sensitivity of five Hawaiian coral species to high temperature under high-pCO2 conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahr, Keisha D.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Ku'ulei S.

2016-06-01

Coral reef ecosystems are presently undergoing decline due to anthropogenic climate change. The chief detrimental factors are increased temperature and increased pCO2. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of these two stressors operating independently and in unison on the biological response of common Hawaiian reef corals. Manipulative experiments were performed using five species ( Porites compressa, Pocillopora damicornis, Fungia scutaria, Montipora capitata, and Leptastrea purpurea) in a continuous-flow mesocosm system under natural sunlight conditions. Corals were grown together as a community under treatments of high temperature (2 °C above normal maximum summer temperature), high pCO2 (twice present-day conditions), and with both factors acting in unison. Control corals were grown under present-day pCO2 and at normal summer temperatures. Leptastrea purpurea proved to be an extremely hardy coral. No change in calcification or mortality occurred under treatments of high temperature, high pCO2, or combined high temperature-high pCO2. The remaining four species showed reduced calcification in the high-temperature treatment. Two species ( L. purpurea and M. capitata) showed no response to increased pCO2. Also, high pCO2 ameliorated the negative effect of high temperature on the calcification rates of P. damicornis. Mortality was driven primarily by high temperature, with a negative synergistic effect in P. compressa only in the high-pCO2-high-temperature treatment. Results support the observation that biological response to temperature and pCO2 elevation is highly species-specific, so generalizations based on response of a single species might not apply to a diverse and complex coral reef community.

Comparison of Three Risk Scores to Predict Outcomes of Severe Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Camus, Marine; Jensen, Dennis M; Ohning, Gordon V; Kovacs, Thomas O; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin A; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Jensen, Mary E; Gornbein, Jeffrey A

2016-01-01

Improved medical decisions by using a score at the initial patient triage level may lead to improvements in patient management, outcomes, and resource utilization. There is no validated score for management of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) unlike for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of our study was to compare the accuracies of 3 different prognostic scores [Center for Ulcer Research and Education Hemostasis prognosis score, Charlson index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score] for the prediction of 30-day rebleeding, surgery, and death in severe LGIB. Data on consecutive patients hospitalized with severe gastrointestinal bleeding from January 2006 to October 2011 in our 2 tertiary academic referral centers were prospectively collected. Sensitivities, specificities, accuracies, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve were computed for 3 scores for predictions of rebleeding, surgery, and mortality at 30 days. Two hundred thirty-five consecutive patients with LGIB were included between 2006 and 2011. Twenty-three percent of patients rebled, 6% had surgery, and 7.7% of patients died. The accuracies of each score never reached 70% for predicting rebleeding or surgery in either. The ASA score had a highest accuracy for predicting mortality within 30 days (83.5%), whereas the Center for Ulcer Research and Education Hemostasis prognosis score and the Charlson index both had accuracies <75% for the prediction of death within 30 days. ASA score could be useful to predict death within 30 days. However, a new score is still warranted to predict all 30 days outcomes (rebleeding, surgery, and death) in LGIB.

What does it cost to prevent on-duty firefighter cardiac events? A content valid method for calculating costs.

PubMed

Patterson, P Daniel; Suyama, Joe; Reis, Steven E; Weaver, Matthew D; Hostler, David

2013-01-01

Cardiac arrest is a leading cause of mortality among firefighters. We sought to develop a valid method for determining the costs of a workplace prevention program for firefighters. In 2012, we developed a draft framework using human resource accounting and in-depth interviews with experts in the firefighting and insurance industries. The interviews produced a draft cost model with 6 components and 26 subcomponents. In 2013, we randomly sampled 100 fire chiefs out of >7,400 affiliated with the International Association of Fire Chiefs. We used the Content Validity Index (CVI) to identify the content valid components of the draft cost model. This was accomplished by having fire chiefs rate the relevancy of cost components using a 4-point Likert scale (highly relevant to not relevant). We received complete survey data from 65 fire chiefs (65% response rate). We retained 5 components and 21 subcomponents based on CVI scores ≥0.70. The five main components include, (1) investment costs, (2) orientation and training costs, (3) medical and pharmaceutical costs, (4) education and continuing education costs, and (5) maintenance costs. Data from a diverse sample of fire chiefs has produced a content valid method for calculating the cost of a prevention program among firefighters.

What Does It Cost to Prevent On-Duty Firefighter Cardiac Events? A Content Valid Method for Calculating Costs

PubMed Central

Patterson, P. Daniel; Suyama, Joe; Reis, Steven E.; Weaver, Matthew D.; Hostler, David

2013-01-01

Cardiac arrest is a leading cause of mortality among firefighters. We sought to develop a valid method for determining the costs of a workplace prevention program for firefighters. In 2012, we developed a draft framework using human resource accounting and in-depth interviews with experts in the firefighting and insurance industries. The interviews produced a draft cost model with 6 components and 26 subcomponents. In 2013, we randomly sampled 100 fire chiefs out of >7,400 affiliated with the International Association of Fire Chiefs. We used the Content Validity Index (CVI) to identify the content valid components of the draft cost model. This was accomplished by having fire chiefs rate the relevancy of cost components using a 4-point Likert scale (highly relevant to not relevant). We received complete survey data from 65 fire chiefs (65% response rate). We retained 5 components and 21 subcomponents based on CVI scores ≥0.70. The five main components include, (1) investment costs, (2) orientation and training costs, (3) medical and pharmaceutical costs, (4) education and continuing education costs, and (5) maintenance costs. Data from a diverse sample of fire chiefs has produced a content valid method for calculating the cost of a prevention program among firefighters. PMID:24455288

A universal definition of ARDS: the PaO2/FiO2 ratio under a standard ventilatory setting--a prospective, multicenter validation study.

PubMed

Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Blanco, Jesús; Añón, José Manuel; Blanch, Lluís; Belda, Javier; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Fernández, Rosa Lidia; Kacmarek, Robert M

2013-04-01

The PaO2/FiO2 is an integral part of the assessment of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The American-European Consensus Conference definition does not mandate any standardization procedure. We hypothesized that the use of PaO2/FiO2 calculated under a standard ventilatory setting within 24 h of ARDS diagnosis allows a more clinically relevant ARDS classification. We studied 452 ARDS patients enrolled prospectively in two independent, multicenter cohorts treated with protective mechanical ventilation. At the time of ARDS diagnosis, patients had a PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 200. In the derivation cohort (n = 170), we measured PaO2/FiO2 with two levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) (≥ 5 and ≥ 10 cmH2O) and two levels of FiO2 (≥ 0.5 and 1.0) at ARDS onset and 24 h later. Dependent upon PaO2 response, patients were reclassified into three groups: mild (PaO2/FiO2 > 200), moderate (PaO2/FiO2 101-200), and severe (PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 100) ARDS. The primary outcome measure was ICU mortality. The standard ventilatory setting that reached the highest significance difference in mortality among these categories was tested in a separate cohort (n = 282). The only standard ventilatory setting that identified the three PaO2/FiO2 risk categories in the derivation cohort was PEEP ≥ 10 cmH2O and FiO2 ≥ 0.5 at 24 h after ARDS onset (p = 0.0001). Using this ventilatory setting, patients in the validation cohort were reclassified as having mild ARDS (n = 47, mortality 17 %), moderate ARDS (n = 149, mortality 40.9 %), and severe ARDS (n = 86, mortality 58.1 %) (p = 0.00001). Our method for assessing PaO2/FiO2 greatly improved risk stratification of ARDS and could be used for enrolling appropriate ARDS patients into therapeutic clinical trials.

Child mortality estimation 2013: an overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

PubMed Central

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

Background In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues. PMID:25013954

Malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Manicaland province, Zimbabwe, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Mutsigiri, Faith; Mafaune, Patron Trish; Mungati, More; Shambira, Gerald; Bangure, Donewell; Juru, Tsitsi; Gombe, Notion Tafara; Tshimanga, Mufuta

2017-01-01

Zimbabwe targets reducing malaria incidence from 22/1000 in 2012 to 10/1000 by 2017, and malaria deaths to near zero by 2017. As the country moves forward with the malaria elimination efforts, it is crucial to monitor trends in malaria morbidity and mortality in the affected areas. In 2013, Manicaland Province contributed 51% of all malaria cases and 35% of all malaria deaths in Zimbabwe. This analysis describes the trends in malaria incidence, case fatality and malaria outpatient workload compared to the general outpatient workload. We analyzed routinely captured malaria data in Manicaland Province for the period 2005 to 2014. Epi Info version 7 was used to calculate chi-square trends for significance and Microsoft Excel was used to generate graphs. Permission to analyze the data was sought and granted by the Provincial Medical Directorate Institutional Review Board of Manicaland and the Health Studies office. Malaria morbidity data for the period 2005-2014 was reviewed and a total of 947,462 cases were confirmed during this period. However, malaria mortality data was only available for the period 2011-2014 and cumulatively 696 deaths were reported. Malaria incidence increased from 4.4/1,000 persons in 2005 to 116.3/1,000 persons in 2014 (p<0.001). The incidence was higher among females compared to males (p-trend<0.001) and among the above five years age group compared to the under-fives (p-trend<0.001). The proportion of all Outpatient Department attendances that were malaria cases increased 30 fold from 0.3% in 2005 to 9.1% in 2014 (p-trend<0.001). The Case Fatality Rate also increased 2-fold from 0.05 in 2011 to 0.1 in 2014 (p-trend<0.001). Despite current malaria control strategies, the morbidity and mortality of malaria increased over the period under review. There is need for further strengthening of malaria control interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.

Tuberculosis caseload in children with severe acute malnutrition related with high hospital based mortality in Lusaka, Zambia.

PubMed

Munthali, Tendai; Chabala, Chishala; Chama, Elson; Mugode, Raider; Kapata, Nathan; Musonda, Patrick; Michelo, Charles

2017-06-12

Tuberculosis and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children pose a major treatment and care challenge in high HIV burden countries in Africa. We investigated the prevalence of Tuberculosis notifications among hospitalised under-five children with severe acute malnutrition. A retrospective review of medical records for all children aged 0-59 months admitted to the University Teaching Hospital from 2009 to 2013 was performed. Descriptive statistics were employed to estimate TB caseload. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of the TB caseload. A total of (n = 9540) under-five children with SAM were admitted over the period reviewed. The median age was 16 months (IQR 11-24) and the proportion diagnosed with TB was 1.58% (95% CI 1.3, 1.8) representing 151 cases. Of these, only 37 (25%) were bacteriologically confirmed cases. The HIV seroprevalence of children with SAM and TB was 46.5%. Children with SAM and TB were 40% more likely to die than children with SAM and without TB. Tuberculosis contributes to mortality among children with SAM in high TB and HIV prevalence settings. The under detection of cases and association of TB with HIV infection in malnutrition opens up opportunities to innovate integrative case finding approaches beyond just HIV counselling and testing within existing mother and child health service areas to include TB screening and prevention interventions, as these are critical primary care elements.

Patterns of lung cancer mortality in 23 countries: Application of the Age-Period-Cohort model

PubMed Central

Liaw, Yung-Po; Huang, Yi-Chia; Lien, Guang-Wen

2005-01-01

Background Smoking habits do not seem to be the main explanation of the epidemiological characteristics of female lung cancer mortality in Asian countries. However, Asian countries are often excluded from studies of geographical differences in trends for lung cancer mortality. We thus examined lung cancer trends from 1971 to 1995 among men and women for 23 countries, including four in Asia. Methods International and national data were used to analyze lung cancer mortality from 1971 to 1995 in both sexes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were analyzed in five consecutive five-year periods and for each five-year age group in the age range 30 to 79. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the period effect (adjusted for age and cohort effects) for mortality from lung cancer. Results The sex ratio of the ASMR for lung cancer was lower in Asian countries, while the sex ratio of smoking prevalence was higher in Asian countries. The mean values of the sex ratio of the ASMR from lung cancer in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan for the five 5-year period were 2.10, 2.39, 3.07, and 3.55, respectively. These values not only remained quite constant over each five-year period, but were also lower than seen in the western countries. The period effect, for lung cancer mortality as derived for the 23 countries from the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Conclusion Period effects for both men and women in 23 countries, as derived using the APC model, could be classified into seven patterns. Four Asian countries have a relatively low sex ratio in lung cancer mortality and a relatively high sex ratio in smoking prevalence. Factors other than smoking might be important, especially for women in Asian countries. PMID:15748289

Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

2016-04-18

Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Postnatal care for newborns in Bangladesh: The importance of health-related factors and location.

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Biswas, Taposh Kumar; Kim, Eunsoo Timothy; Godwin, Christine; Moran, Allisyn

2017-12-01

Bangladesh achieved Millennium Development Goal 4, a two thirds reduction in under-five mortality from 1990 to 2015. However neonatal mortality remains high, and neonatal deaths now account for 62% of under-five deaths in Bangladesh. The objective of this paper is to understand which newborns in Bangladesh are receiving postnatal care (PNC), a set of interventions with the potential to reduce neonatal mortality. Using data from the Bangladesh Maternal Mortality Survey (BMMS) 2010 we conducted logistic regression analysis to understand what socio-economic and health-related factors were associated with early postnatal care (PNC) by day 2 and PNC by day 7. Key variables studied were maternal complications (during pregnancy, delivery or after delivery) and contact with the health care system (receipt of any antenatal care, place of delivery and type of delivery attendant). Using data from the BMMS 2010 and an Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) 2012 needs assessment, we also presented descriptive maps of PNC coverage overlaid with neonatal mortality rates. There were several significant findings from the regression analysis. Newborns of mothers having a skilled delivery were significantly more likely to receive PNC (Day 7: OR = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81, 2.58; Day 2: OR = 2.11, 95% 95% CI 1.76). Newborns of mothers who reported a complication were also significantly more likely to receive PNC with odds ratios varying between 1.3 and 1.6 for complications at the different points along the continuum of care. Urban residence and greater wealth were also significantly associated with PNC. The maps provided visual images of wide variation in PNC coverage and indicated that districts with the highest PNC coverage, did not necessarily have the lowest neonatal mortality rates. Newborns of mothers who had a skilled delivery or who experienced a complication were more likely to receive PNC than newborns of mothers with a home delivery or who did not report a complication. Given that the majority of women in Bangladesh have a home delivery, strategies are needed to reach their newborns with PNC. Greater focus is also needed to reach poor women in rural areas. Engaging community health workers to conduct home PNC visits may be an interim strategy as Bangladesh strives to increase skilled delivery coverage.

Risk of cardiovascular events and death in the life after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Bots, Michiel L

2014-12-01

The increased mortality rates of survivors of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage have been attributed to an increased risk of cardiovascular events in a registry study in Sweden. Swedish registries have however not been validated for subarachnoid haemorrhage and Scandinavian incidences of cardiovascular disease differ from that in Western European countries. We assessed risks of vascular disease and death in subarachnoid haemorrhage survivors in the Netherlands. From the Dutch hospital discharge register, we identified all patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage admission between 1997 and 2008. We determined the accuracy of coding of the diagnosis subarachnoid haemorrhage for patients admitted to our centre. Conditional on survival of three-months after the subarachnoid haemorrhage, we calculated standardized incidence and mortality ratios for fatal or nonfatal vascular diseases, vascular death, and all-cause death. Cumulative risks were estimated with survival analysis. The diagnosis of nontraumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage was correct in 95·4% of 1472 patients. Of 11,263 admitted subarachnoid haemorrhage patients, 6999 survived more than three-months. During follow-up (mean 5·1 years), 874 (12·5%) died. The risks of death were 3·3% within one-year, 11·3% within five-years, and 21·5% within 10 years. The standardized mortality ratio was 3·4 (95% confidence interval: 3·1 to 3·7) for vascular death and 2·2 (95% confidence interval: 2·1 to 2·3) for all-cause death. The standardized incidence ratio for fatal or nonfatal vascular diseases was 2·7 (95% confidence interval: 2·6 to 2·8). Dutch hospital discharge and cause of death registries are a valid source of data for subarachnoid haemorrhage, and show that the increased mortality rate in subarachnoid haemorrhage survivors is explained by increased risks for vascular diseases and death. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Pecenka, Clint; Parashar, Umesh; Tate, Jacqueline E; Khan, Jahangir A M; Groman, Devin; Chacko, Stephen; Shamsuzzaman, Md; Clark, Andrew; Atherly, Deborah

2017-07-13

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners. This analysis used Pan American Health Organization's TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates. Over ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to $142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from $615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted. The discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

2018-02-01

Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of community level intervention on nutritional status and feeding practices of under five children in Ile Ife, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogundele, Olorunfemi Akinbode; Ogundele, Tolulope

2015-01-01

Childhood malnutrition remains a widespread problem in developing world like Nigeria. The country ranks second among the ten countries contributing to sixty percent of the world's wasted under-five children. Community Integrated Management of Childhood illness (CIMCI) is a programme that employs the use of community based counsellors to address child health and nutritional challenges of the under-five and has the potential to reduce the morbidity and mortality resulting from poor nutritional and feeding practices. The study assessed the effect of community level intervention on nutritional status and feeding practices of children in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. A cross-sectional comparative study that employed the use of multi stage cluster sampling techniques in selecting 722 mothers of index under five children. The study was done in two Local Government Areas of Osun State, Nigeria. Quantitative techniques were used in data collection. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 20.0. Descriptive and bivariate analyses was performed. The two Local Government Area (LGA) did not differ significantly in their wealth index (p = 0.344). However, more children in the non-implementing LGA (16.1%) had low weight for age compared with 3.6% in the CIMCI implementing LGA (p = 0.000). A statistically significant difference exist in the MUAC measurement of children 12-23 months between the CIMCI implementing and non-implementing communities (p = 0.007). A higher percentage of caregivers (19.3%) introduced complementary feeding earlier than 6 months in the non-implementing area (p < 0.001). Using community level nutritional counseling can greatly improve nutritional status and feeding practices of under five children.

A Frailty Instrument for primary care for those aged 75 years or more: findings from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, a longitudinal population-based cohort study (SHARE-FI75+)

PubMed Central

Romero-Ortuno, Roman; Soraghan, Christopher

2014-01-01

Objective To create and validate a frailty assessment tool for community-dwelling adults aged ≥75 years. Design Longitudinal, population-based study. Setting The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Participants 4001 women and 3057 men aged ≥75 years from the second wave of SHARE. 3325 women and 2587 men had complete information for the frailty indicators: fatigue, low appetite, weakness, observed gait (walking without help, walking with help, chairbound/bedbound, unobserved) and low physical activity. Main outcome measures The internal validity of the frailty indicators was tested with latent class analysis, by modelling an underlying variable with three ordered categories. The predictive validity of the frailty classification was tested against 2-year mortality and 4-year disability. The mortality prediction of SHARE-FI75+ was compared with that of previously operationalised frailty scales in SHARE (SHARE-FI, 70-item index, phenotype, FRAIL). Results In both genders, all frailty indicators significantly aggregated into a three-category ordinal latent variable. After adjusting for baseline age, comorbidity and basic activities of daily living (BADL) disability, the frail had an OR for 2-year mortality of 2.2 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.8) in women and 4.2 (2.6 to 6.8) in men. The mortality prediction of SHARE-FI75+ was similar to that of the other SHARE frailty scales. By wave 4, 49% of frail women (78 of 159) had at least one more limitation with BADL (compared with 18% of non-frail, 125 of 684; p<0.001); in men, these proportions were 39% (26 of 66) and 18% (110 of 621), respectively (p<0.001). A calculator is supplied for point-of-care use, which automatically replicates the frailty classification for any given measurements. Conclusions SHARE-FI75+ could help frailty case finding in primary care and provide a focus for personalised community interventions. Further validation in trials and clinical programmes is needed. PMID:25537787

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Methods Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. Results 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813–0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725–0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). Conclusions We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group. PMID:27824941

[Association between the use of blood components and the five-year mortality after liver transplant].

PubMed

de Morais, Bruno Salomé; Sanches, Marcelo Dias; Ribeiro, Daniel Dias; Lima, Agnaldo Soares; de Abreu Ferrari, Teresa Cristina; Duarte, Malvina Maria de Freitas; Cançado, Guilherme Henrique Gomes Moreira

2011-01-01

Liver transplant (LT) surgery is associated with significant bleeding in 20% of cases, and several authors have demonstrated the risks related to blood components. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impact of using blood components during hospitalization in five-year survival of patients undergoing LT. One hundred and thirteen patients were evaluated retrospectively. Several variables, including the use of blood components intraoperatively and throughout hospitalization, were categorized and evaluated by univariate analysis using Fisher's test. A level of significance of 5% was adopted. Results with p < 0.2 underwent multivariate analysis using multinomial logistic regression. Parenchymal diseases, preoperative renal dysfunction, and longer stay in hospital and ICU are associated with greater five-year mortality after LT (p < 0.05). Unlike the intraoperative use of blood components, the accumulated transfusion of packed red blood cell, frozen fresh plasma, and platelets during the entire hospitalization was associated with greater five-year mortality after liver transplantation (p < 0.01). This study emphasizes the relationship between the use of blood components during hospitalization and increased mortality in five years after LT. 2011 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precisely Tracking Childhood Death

PubMed Central

Farag, Tamer H.; Koplan, Jeffrey P.; Breiman, Robert F.; Madhi, Shabir A.; Heaton, Penny M.; Mundel, Trevor; Ordi, Jaume; Bassat, Quique; Menendez, Clara; Dowell, Scott F.

2017-01-01

Abstract. Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12–15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality. PMID:28719334

Morbidity and Mortality in Sarcoidosis

PubMed Central

Gerke, Alicia K.

2015-01-01

Purpose of Review Chronic sarcoidosis is a complex disease with numerous comorbid conditions and can be fatal in some cases. Recognizing causes of morbidity and mortality is important to effectively select treatments, manage symptoms, and improve outcomes. The purpose of this review is to examine emerging knowledge on morbidity and mortality in sarcoidosis. Recent Findings Approximately one to five percent of patients with sarcoidosis die from complications of sarcoidosis. Recent population studies indicate that mortality may be increasing over the past decade. The reasons behind these trends are unclear, but could include increasing incidence, detection rates, severity of disease, or age of the population. Morbidity of sarcoidosis is reflected by a trend of increased hospitalizations over recent years and increased use of healthcare resources. Morbidity can be caused by organ damage from granulomatous inflammation, treatment complications, and psychosocial effects of the disease. Recent studies are focused on morbidity related to cardiopulmonary complications, bone health, and aging within the sarcoidosis population. Last, sarcoidosis is associated with autoimmune diseases, pulmonary embolism, and malignancy; however, the underlying mechanisms linking diseases continue to be debated. Summary Morbidity in sarcoidosis is significant and multifactorial. Mortality is infrequent, but may be increasing over the years. PMID:25029298

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Available studies fail to provide strong evidence of increased risk of diarrhea mortality due to measles in the period 4-26 weeks after measles rash onset.

PubMed

Jackson, Bianca D; Black, Robert E

2017-11-07

Measles vaccination effectiveness studies showed dramatic decreases in all-cause mortality in excess of what would be expected from the prevention of measles disease alone. This invited speculation that measles infection may increase the risk of diarrhea morbidity and mortality subsequent to the acute phase of the disease. The aim of the present systematic review is to summarize the existing evidence in the publically available literature pertaining to the putative causal link between measles and diarrhea in the period 4-26 weeks following measles rash onset. We searched the PubMed, Embase, Open Grey and Grey Literature Report databases for relevant literature using broad search terms. Prospective, retrospective and case-control studies in low- and middle-income countries involving children under five wherein relevant evidence were presented were included. Data were extracted from the articles and summarized. Fifty abstracts retrieved through the database searches met the initial screening criteria. Twelve additional documents were identified by review of the references of the documents found in the initial searches. Six documents representing five unique studies that presented evidence relevant to the research question were found. Four of the included studies took place in Bangladesh. One of the included studies took place in Sudan. Some measles vaccine effectiveness studies show lower diarrhea morbidity and mortality among the vaccinated. However, children who received vaccine may have differed in important ways from children who did not, such as health service utilization. Additionally, cohort studies following unvaccinated children showed no difference in diarrhea morbidity and mortality between cases and controls more than 4 weeks after measles rash onset. One study showed some evidence that severe measles may predispose children to gastroenteritis, but was not able to show a corresponding increase in the risk of diarrhea mortality. The available evidence suggests that the risk of measles-associated diarrhea mortality is largely limited to the 5-week period 1 week prior to and 4 weeks after measles rash onset, and that there is no increased risk of diarrhea mortality in the longer-term caused by measles.

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

2016-03-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, Nathan G.; Williams, A.P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, Sanna; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.J.; Mackay, D.S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Allen, Craig D.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Koven, C.

2016-01-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Risk Factors for the Mortality of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia in Non-HIV Patients Who Required Mechanical Ventilation: A Retrospective Case Series Study.

PubMed

Kotani, Toru; Katayama, Shinshu; Miyazaki, Yuya; Fukuda, Satoshi; Sato, Yoko; Ohsugi, Koichi

2017-01-01

The risk factors for the mortality rate of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) who required mechanical ventilation (MV) remained unknown. A retrospective chart review was performed of all PCP patients admitted to our intensive care unit and treated for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure to assess the risk factors for the high mortality. Twenty patients without human immunodeficiency virus infection required mechanical ventilation; 19 received noninvasive ventilation; and 11 were intubated. PEEP was incrementally increased and titrated to maintain FIO 2 as low as possible. No mandatory ventilation was used. Sixteen patients (80%) survived. Pneumothorax developed in one patient with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Median PEEP level in the first 5 days was 10.0 cmH 2 O and not associated with death. Multivariate analysis showed the association of incidence of interstitial lung disease and increase in serum KL-6 with 90-day mortality. We found MV strategies to prevent pneumothorax including liberal use of noninvasive ventilation, and PEEP titration and disuse of mandatory ventilation may improve mortality in this setting. Underlying disease of interstitial lung disease was a risk factor and KL-6 may be a useful predictor associated with mortality in patients with RA. These findings will need to be validated in larger studies.

GULF OF MEXICO AQUATIC MORTALITY NETWORK (GMNET)

EPA Science Inventory

Five U.S. states share the northern coast of the Gulf, and each has a program to monitor mortalities of aquatic organisms (fish, shellfish, birds). However, each state has different standards, procedures, and documentation of mortality events. The Gulf of Mexico Aquatic Mortality...

The SLUScore: A Novel Method for Detecting Hazardous Hypotension in Adult Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgical Procedures

PubMed Central

Yuan, Hui; Dryden, Jefferson K.; Strehl, Kristen E.; Cywinski, Jacek B.; Ehrenfeld, Jesse M.; Bromley, Pamela

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that longer-term postsurgical outcome may be adversely affected by less than severe hypotension under anesthesia. However, evidence-based guidelines are unavailable. The present study was designed to develop a method for identifying patients at increased risk of death within 30 days in association with the severity and duration of intraoperative hypotension. METHODS: Intraoperative mean arterial blood pressure recordings of 152,445 adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery were analyzed for periods of time accumulated below each one of the 31 thresholds between 75 and 45 mm Hg (hypotensive exposure times). In a development cohort of 35,904 patients, the associations were sought between each of these 31 cumulative hypotensive exposure times and 30-day postsurgical mortality. On the basis of covariable-adjusted percentage increases in the odds of mortality per minute elapsed of hypotensive exposure time, certain sets of exposure time limits were calculated that portended certain percentage increases in the odds of mortality. A novel risk-scoring method was conceived by counting the number of exposure time limits that had been exceeded within each respective set, one of them being called the SLUScore. The validity of this new method in identifying patients at increased risk was tested in a multicenter validation cohort consisting of 116,541 patients from Cleveland Clinic, Vanderbilt and Saint Louis Universities. Data were expressed as 95% confidence interval, P < .05 considered significant. RESULTS: Progressively greater hypotensive exposures were associated with greater 30-day mortality. In the development cohort, covariable-adjusted (age, Charlson score, case duration, history of hypertension) exposure limits were identified for time accumulated below each of the thresholds that portended certain identical (5%–50%) percentage expected increases in the odds of mortality. These exposure time limit sets were shorter in patients with a history of hypertension. A novel risk score, the SLUScore (range 0–31), was conceived as the number of exposure limits exceeded for one of these sets (20% set). A SLUScore > 0 (average 13.8) was found in 40% of patients who had twice the mortality, adjusted odds increasing by 5% per limit exceeded. When tested in the validation cohort, a SLUScore > 0 (average 14.1) identified 35% of patients who had twice the mortality, each incremental limit exceeded portending a 5% compounding increase in adjusted odds of mortality, independent of age and Charlson score (C = 0.73, 0.72–0.74, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore represents a novel method for identifying nearly 1 in every 3 patients experiencing greater 30-day mortality portended by more severe intraoperative hypotensive exposures. PMID:28107274

Study on age and education level and their relationship with fall-related injuries in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Li, Yan Hong; Song, Gui Xiang; Yu, Yan; Zhou, De Ding; Zhang, Hong Wei

2013-02-01

To study age and educational level and their relationship with fall-related injuries in Shanghai and to analyze the relevant costs. Multistage cluster sampling was used for the selection of participants and standardized questionnaires were used for the information collection in 2006. Information on cases and deaths caused by fall-related injuries were obtained from 494 hospitals as well as from the mortality registry systems from 2001 till 2010. Of 45 857 participates, 674 suffered from fall-related injuries with the largest proportion among all injuries. The fall-related mortality increased from 10.63 per 100 000 in 2001 to 14.11 per 100 000 in 2010. The under-five mortality rate was the highest among children aged 0-14 years. Mortality increased dramatically among those aged 55 or above for the female and aged 60 or older for the male. Individuals with an educational level under the primary school were more likely to suffer fall-related injuries, accounting for 72.66% of all deaths and 49.24% of nonfatal cases respectively. The annual burden of fall-related injuries equated to 25.90% of the share of GDP for the healthcare, social security and welfare industries in 2006. Fall-related injuries were inversely related to victims' educational level. Children under the age of 5, women over 55 years old and men over 60 years old with an educational level lower than the primary school are the most risky groups of populations for intervention measures. Copyright © 2013 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Income inequality and mortality: a multilevel prospective study of 521 248 individuals in 50 US states.

PubMed

Backlund, Eric; Rowe, Geoff; Lynch, John; Wolfson, Michael C; Kaplan, George A; Sorlie, Paul D

2007-06-01

Some of the most consistent evidence in favour of an association between income inequality and health has been among US states. However, in multilevel studies of mortality, only two out of five studies have reported a positive relationship with income inequality after adjustment for the compositional characteristics of the state's inhabitants. In this study, we attempt to clarify these mixed results by analysing the relationship within age-sex groups and by applying a previously unused analytical method to a database that contains more deaths than any multilevel study to date. The US National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS) was used to model the relationship between income inequality in US states and mortality using both a novel and previously used methodologies that fall into the general framework of multilevel regression. We adjust age-sex specific models for nine socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level and percentage black and region at the state level. The preponderance of evidence from this study suggests that 1990 state-level income inequality is associated with a 40% differential in state level mortality rates (95% CI = 26-56%) for men 25-64 years and a 14% (95% CI = 3-27%) differential for women 25-64 years after adjustment for compositional factors. No such relationship was found for men or women over 65. The relationship between income inequality and mortality is only robust to adjustment for compositional factors in men and women under 65. This explains why income inequality is not a major driver of mortality trends in the United States because most deaths occur at ages 65 and over. This analysis does suggest, however, the certain causes of death that occur primarily in the population under 65 may be associated with income inequality. Comparison of analytical techniques also suggests coefficients for income inequality in previous multilevel mortality studies may be biased, but further research is needed to provide a definitive answer.

Investments in cancer research awarded to UK institutions and the global burden of cancer 2000-2013: a systematic analysis.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Head, Michael G; Zhou, Charlie D; Gilbert, Barnabas J; El-Harasis, Majd A; Raine, Rosalind; Fitchett, Joseph R; Atun, Rifat

2017-04-20

To systematically categorise cancer research investment awarded to United Kingdom (UK) institutions in the period 2000-2013 and to estimate research investment relative to disease burden as measured by mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). Systematic analysis of all open-access data. Public and philanthropic funding to all UK cancer research institutions, 2000-2013. Number and financial value of cancer research investments reported in 2013 UK pounds (UK£). Mortality, DALYs and YLDs data were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease Study. A compound metric was adapted to estimate research investment relative to disease burden as measured by mortality, DALYs and YLDs. We identified 4299 funded studies with a total research investment of £2.4 billion. The highest fundings by anatomical sites were haematological, breast, prostate, colorectal and ovarian cancers. Relative to disease burden as determined by a compound metric combining mortality, DALYs and YLDs, gender-specific cancers were found to be highest funded-the five sites that received the most funding were prostate, ovarian, breast, mesothelioma and testicular cancer; the least well-funded sites were liver, thyroid, lung, upper gastrointestinal (GI) and bladder. Preclinical science accounted for 66.2% of award numbers and 62.2% of all funding. The top five areas of primary research focus by funding were pathogenesis, drug therapy, diagnostic, screening and monitoring, women's health and immunology. The largest individual funder was the Medical Research Council. In combination, the five lowest funded site-specific cancers relative to disease burden account for 47.9%, 44.3% and 20.4% of worldwide cancer mortality, DALYs and YLDs. Research funding for cancer is not allocated according to relative disease burden. These findings are in line with earlier published studies. Funding agencies and industry should openly document their research investments to improve better targeting of research investment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Prediction of Waitlist Mortality in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates: The Candidate Risk Score.

PubMed

Jasseron, Carine; Legeai, Camille; Jacquelinet, Christian; Leprince, Pascal; Cantrelle, Christelle; Audry, Benoît; Porcher, Raphael; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

2017-09-01

The cardiac allocation system in France is currently based on urgency and geography. Medical urgency is defined by therapies without considering objective patient mortality risk factors. This study aimed to develop a waitlist mortality risk score from commonly available candidate variables. The study included all patients, aged 16 years or older, registered on the national registry CRISTAL for first single-organ heart transplantation between January 2010 and December 2014. This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables at listing with 1-year waitlist death or delisting for worsening medical condition was assessed within the derivation cohort. The predictors were used to generate a candidate risk score (CRS). Validation of the CRS was performed in the validation cohort. Concordance probability estimation (CPE) was used to evaluate the discriminative capacity of the models. During the study period, 2333 patients were newly listed. The derivation (n =1 555) and the validation cohorts (n = 778) were similar. Short-term mechanical circulatory support, natriuretic peptide decile, glomerular filtration rate, and total bilirubin level were included in a simplified model and incorporated into the score. The Concordance probability estimation of the CRS was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The correlation between observed and expected 1-year waitlist mortality in the validation cohort was 0.87. The candidate risk score provides an accurate objective prediction of waitlist mortality. It is currently being used to develop a modified cardiac allocation system in France.

[Process and results of constructing a deprivation index for the districts of Madrid and Barcelona, Spain].

PubMed

Álvarez-del Arco, Débora; Vicente Sánchez, Marta; Alejos, Belén; Pascual, Cruz; Regidor, Enrique

2013-01-01

There are few economic indicators that take the neighbourhood as the unit of reference in our context. The aim of this article is to describe the process and results of secondary data collection and development of a deprivation index (DI) for the neighbourhoods of the cities of Madrid and Barcelona, discussing their utility for research on health inequalities. Initial DI conceptual framework contained different elements that characterize deprivation and for which we collected second-level variables. ID was adapted to the availability of variables and to the results of an exploratory analysis. Finally, a factor analysis was performed to validate the IP. We built a DI based on five dimensions for Madrid (economy, population and territory, housing, cars and demographics) and 4 for Barcelona (all except "demographics"). Neighbourhoods were grouped into quartiles according to their score for the DI (Q4: higher levels of deprivation). Premature mortality rates and premature mortality ratios adjusted by age were calculated for each quartile. The IP explained 55% of the observed variability in the indicators for Madrid and 69% for Barcelona. Premature mortality rate in Madrid for Q1 was 1.65 per 10³ in men and 0.92 per 10³ women and 2.81 per 10³ in men and 1.22 per 10³ in women residing in Q4. In Barcelona, the mortality rate was 2.33 per 10³ men and 1.15 per 10³ women in Q1 and 3.49 per 10³ in men and 1.52 per 103 in women living in Q4. Premature mortality rates showed higher premature mortality in the most deprived districts.

Temporal and external validation of a prediction model for adverse outcomes among inpatients with diabetes.

PubMed

Adderley, N J; Mallett, S; Marshall, T; Ghosh, S; Rayman, G; Bellary, S; Coleman, J; Akiboye, F; Toulis, K A; Nirantharakumar, K

2018-06-01

To temporally and externally validate our previously developed prediction model, which used data from University Hospitals Birmingham to identify inpatients with diabetes at high risk of adverse outcome (mortality or excessive length of stay), in order to demonstrate its applicability to other hospital populations within the UK. Temporal validation was performed using data from University Hospitals Birmingham and external validation was performed using data from both the Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust and Ipswich Hospital. All adult inpatients with diabetes were included. Variables included in the model were age, gender, ethnicity, admission type, intensive therapy unit admission, insulin therapy, albumin, sodium, potassium, haemoglobin, C-reactive protein, estimated GFR and neutrophil count. Adverse outcome was defined as excessive length of stay or death. Model discrimination in the temporal and external validation datasets was good. In temporal validation using data from University Hospitals Birmingham, the area under the curve was 0.797 (95% CI 0.785-0.810), sensitivity was 70% (95% CI 67-72) and specificity was 75% (95% CI 74-76). In external validation using data from Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust, the area under the curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.747-0.768), sensitivity was 73% (95% CI 71-74) and specificity was 66% (95% CI 65-67). In external validation using data from Ipswich, the area under the curve was 0.736 (95% CI 0.711-0.761), sensitivity was 63% (95% CI 59-68) and specificity was 69% (95% CI 67-72). These results were similar to those for the internally validated model derived from University Hospitals Birmingham. The prediction model to identify patients with diabetes at high risk of developing an adverse event while in hospital performed well in temporal and external validation. The externally validated prediction model is a novel tool that can be used to improve care pathways for inpatients with diabetes. Further research to assess clinical utility is needed. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

A population-based analysis of increasing rates of suicide mortality in Japan and South Korea, 1985-2010.

PubMed

Jeon, Sun Y; Reither, Eric N; Masters, Ryan K

2016-04-23

In the past two decades, rates of suicide mortality have declined among most OECD member states. Two notable exceptions are Japan and South Korea, where suicide mortality has increased by 20 % and 280 %, respectively. Population and suicide mortality data were collected through national statistics organizations in Japan and South Korea for the period 1985 to 2010. Age, period of observation, and birth cohort membership were divided into five-year increments. We fitted a series of intrinsic estimator age-period-cohort models to estimate the effects of age-related processes, secular changes, and birth cohort dynamics on the rising rates of suicide mortality in the two neighboring countries. In Japan, elevated suicide rates are primarily driven by period effects, initiated during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. In South Korea, multiple factors appear to be responsible for the stark increase in suicide mortality, including recent secular changes, elevated suicide risks at older ages in the context of an aging society, and strong cohort effects for those born between the Great Depression and the aftermath of the Korean War. In spite of cultural, demographic and geographic similarities in Japan and South Korea, the underlying causes of increased suicide mortality differ across these societies-suggesting that public health responses should be tailored to fit each country's unique situation.

Calculating the risk of a pancreatic fistula after a pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Vallance, Abigail E; Young, Alastair L; Macutkiewicz, Christian; Roberts, Keith J; Smith, Andrew M

2015-01-01

Background A post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after a pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This systematic review aimed to identify all scoring systems to predict POPF after a PD, consider their clinical applicability and assess the study quality. Method An electronic search was performed of Medline (1946–2014) and EMBASE (1996–2014) databases. Results were screened according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, and quality assessed according to the QUIPS (quality in prognostic studies) tool. Results Six eligible scoring systems were identified. Five studies used the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) definition. The proposed scores feature between two and five variables and of the 16 total variables, the majority (12) featured in only one score. Three scores could be fully completed pre-operatively whereas 1 score included intra-operative and two studies post-operative variables. Four scores were internally validated and of these, two scores have been subject to subsequent multicentre review. The median QUIPS score was 38 out of 50 (range 16–50). Conclusion These scores show potential in calculating the individualized patient risk of POPF. There is, however, much variation in current scoring systems and further validation in large multicentre cohorts is now needed. PMID:26456948

Risk of malnutrition (over and under-nutrition): validation of the JaNuS screening tool.

PubMed

Donini, Lorenzo M; Ricciardi, Laura Maria; Neri, Barbara; Lenzi, Andrea; Marchesini, Giulio

2014-12-01

Malnutrition (over and under-nutrition) is highly prevalent in patients admitted to hospital and it is a well-known risk factor for increased morbidity and mortality. Nutritional problems are often misdiagnosed, and especially the coexistence of over and undernutrition is not usually recognized. We aimed to develop and validate a screening tool for the easy detection and reporting of both undernutrition and overnutrition, specifically identifying the clinical conditions where the two types of malnutrition coexist. The study consisted of three phases: 1) selection of an appropriate study population (estimation sample) and of the hospital admission parameters to identify overnutrition and undernutrition; 2) combination of selected variables to create a screening tool to assess the nutritional risk in case of undernutrition, overnutrition, or the copresence of both the conditions, to be used by non-specialist health care professionals; 3) validation of the screening tool in a different patient sample (validation sample). Two groups of variables (12 for undernutrition, 7 for overnutrition) were identified in separate logistic models for their correlation with the outcome variables. Both models showed high efficacy, sensitivity and specificity (overnutrition, 97.7%, 99.6%, 66.6%, respectively; undernutrition, 84.4%, 83.6%, 84.8%). The logistic models were used to construct a two-faced test (named JaNuS - Just A Nutritional Screening) fitting into a two-dimension Cartesian coordinate graphic system. In the validation sample the JaNuS test confirmed its predictive value. Internal consistency and test-retest analysis provide evidence for the reliability of the test. The study provides a screening tool for the assessment of the nutritional risk, based on parameters easy-to-use by health care personnel lacking nutritional competence and characterized by excellent predictive validity. The test might be confidently applied in the clinical setting to determine the importance of malnutrition (including the copresence of over and undernutrition) as a risk factor for morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Bupropion for smokers hospitalized with acute cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Rigotti, Nancy A; Thorndike, Anne N; Regan, Susan; McKool, Kathleen; Pasternak, Richard C; Chang, Yuchiao; Swartz, Susan; Torres-Finnerty, Nancy; Emmons, Karen M; Singer, Daniel E

2006-12-01

Smoking cessation after myocardial infarction reduces cardiovascular mortality, but many smokers cannot quit despite state-of-the-art counseling intervention. Bupropion is effective for smoking cessation, but its safety and efficacy in hospitalized smokers with acute cardiovascular disease is unknown. A five-hospital randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial assessed the safety and efficacy of 12 weeks of sustained-release bupropion (300 mg) or placebo in 248 smokers admitted for acute cardiovascular disease, primarily myocardial infarction and unstable angina. All subjects had smoking counseling in the hospital and for 12 weeks after discharge. Cotinine-validated 7-day tobacco abstinence, cardiovascular mortality, and new cardiovascular events were assessed at 3 months (end-of-treatment) and 1 year. Validated tobacco abstinence rates in bupropion and placebo groups were 37.1% vs 26.8% (OR 1.61, 95% CI, 0.94-2.76; P=.08) at 3 months and 25.0% vs 21.3% (OR, 1.23, 95% CI, 0.68-2.23, P=.49) at 1 year. The adjusted odds ratio, after controlling for cigarettes per day, depression symptoms, prior bupropion use, hypertension, and length of stay, was 1.91 (95% CI, 1.06-3.40, P=.03) at 3 months and 1.51 (95% CI, 0.81-2.83) at 1 year. Bupropion and placebo groups did not differ in cardiovascular mortality at 1 year (0% vs 2%), in blood pressure at follow-up, or in cardiovascular events at end-of-treatment (16% vs 14%, incidence rate ratio [IRR]1.22 (95% CI: 0.64-2.33) or 1 year (26% vs 18%, IRR 1.56, 95% CI 0.91-2.69). Bupropion improved short-term but not long-term smoking cessation rates over intensive counseling and appeared to be safe in hospitalized smokers with acute cardiovascular disease.

The AIMS65 Score Is a Useful Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Urgent Endoscopy in Patients with High AIMS65 Scores

PubMed Central

Park, Sun Wook; Song, Young Wook; Tak, Dae Hyun; Ahn, Byung Moo; Kang, Sun Hyung; Moon, Hee Seok; Sung, Jae Kyu; Jeong, Hyun Yong

2015-01-01

Background/Aims: To validate the AIMS65 score for predicting mortality of patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding and to evaluate the effectiveness of urgent (<8 hours) endoscopic procedures in patients with high AIMS65 scores. Methods: This was a 5-year single-center, retrospective study. Nonvariceal, upper gastrointestinal bleeding was assessed by using the AIM65 and Rockall scores. Scores for mortality were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Patients with high AIMS65 scores (≥2) were allocated to either the urgent or non-urgent endoscopic procedure group. In-hospital mortality, success of endoscopic procedure, recurrence of bleeding, admission period, and dose of transfusion were compared between groups. Results: A total of 634 patients were analyzed. The AIMS65 score successfully predicted mortality (AUROC=0.943; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.876 to 0.99) and was superior to the Rockall score (AUROC=0.856; 95% CI, 0.743 to 0.969) in predicting mortality. The group with high AIMS65 score included 200 patients. The urgent endoscopic procedure group had reduced hospitalization periods (p<0.05) Conclusions: AIMS65 score may be useful in predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Urgent endoscopic procedures in patients with high scores may be related to reduced hospitalization periods. PMID:26668799

Contextual socioeconomic factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Adekanmbi, Victor T; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Stranges, Saverio; Uthman, Olalekan A

2015-11-01

Childhood mortality is a well-known public health issue, particularly in the low and middle income countries. The overarching aim of this study was to examine whether neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with childhood mortality beyond individual-level measures of socioeconomic status in Nigeria. Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to data on 31 482 under-five children whether alive or dead (level 1) nested within 896 neighbourhoods (level 2) from the 37 states in Nigeria (level 3) using the most recent 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). More than 1 of every 10 children studied had died before reaching the age of 5 years (130/1000 live births). The following factors independently increased the odds of childhood mortality: male sex, mother's age at 15-24 years, uneducated mother or low maternal education attainment, decreasing household wealth index at individual level (level 1), residing in rural area and neighbourhoods with high poverty rate at level 2. There were significant neighbourhoods and states clustering in childhood mortality in Nigeria. The study provides evidence that individual-level and neighbourhood-level socioeconomic conditions are important correlates of childhood mortality in Nigeria. The findings of this study also highlight the need to implement public health prevention strategies at the individual level, as well as at the area/neighbourhood level. These strategies include the establishment of an effective publicly funded healthcare system, as well as health education and poverty alleviation programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Mortality related to acute illness and injury in rural Uganda: task shifting to improve outcomes.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Stacey; Stolz, Uwe; Dreifuss, Bradley; Nelson, Sara W; Hammerstedt, Heather; Andinda, Jovita; Maling, Samuel; Bisanzo, Mark

2015-01-01

Due to the dual critical shortages of acute care and healthcare workers in resource-limited settings, many people suffer or die from conditions that could be easily treated if existing resources were used in a more timely and effective manner. In order to address this preventable morbidity and mortality, a novel emergency midlevel provider training program was developed in rural Uganda. This is the first study that assesses this unique application of a task-shifting model to acute care by evaluating the outcomes of 10,105 patients. Nurses participated in a two-year training program to become midlevel providers called Emergency Care Practitioners at a rural district hospital. This is a retrospective analysis of the Emergency Department's quality assurance database, including three-day follow-up data. Case fatality rates (CFRs) are reported as the percentage of cases with a specific diagnosis that died within three days of their Emergency Department visit. Overall, three-day mortality was 2.0%. The most common diagnoses of patients who died were malaria (n=60), pneumonia (n=51), malnutrition (n=21), and trauma (n=18). Overall and under-five CFRs were as follows: malaria, 2.0% and 1.9%; pneumonia, 5.5% and 4.1%; and trauma, 1.2% and 1.6%. Malnutrition-related fatality (all cases <18 years old) was 6.5% overall and 6.8% for under-fives. This study describes the outcomes of emergency patients treated by midlevel providers in a resource-limited setting. Our fatality rates are lower than previously published regional rates. These findings suggest this model of task-shifting can be successfully applied to acute care in order to address the shortage of emergency care services in similar settings as part of an integrated approach to health systems strengthening.

Saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) Mortality and Population Regeneration in the Cactus Forest of Saguaro National Park: Seventy-Five Years and Counting

PubMed Central

Orum, Thomas V.; Ferguson, Nancy; Mihail, Jeanne D.

2016-01-01

Annual census data spanning seventy-five years document mortality and regeneration in a population of saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) in the Cactus Forest of the Rincon Mountain District of Saguaro National Park near Tucson, AZ. On 6 four-hectare plots, each saguaro was censused and a methodical search for new saguaros was conducted annually each year from 1942 through 2016, with the exception of 1955. Regeneration has been episodic with 828 plants established from 1959 through 1993 compared with 34 plants established between 1942 and 1958 and only three plants established after 1993. The years preceding 1959 and following 1993, include some of the driest decades in centuries in southern Arizona. While woodcutting and cattle grazing are believed to be among the causes of decades of failed regeneration prior to 1958, neither of these factors contributed to the failed regeneration following 1993. The height structure of the population from 1942 to 2016 shifted dramatically from a population dominated by large saguaros (> 5.4 m tall) in the first three decades of the study to a population dominated by small saguaros (< 1.8 m tall) in the most recent two decades. Mortality is shown to be strongly age dependent. In the year following the 2011 catastrophic freeze, 21 of 59 plants older than 80 years died compared with zero deaths in 270 plants between the ages of 29 and 80 years. Saguaros under 40 years old, growing under small shrubs or in the open, have a lower probability of survival than better protected saguaros. Long-term population monitoring is essential to understanding the complex impacts of human and environmental factors on the population dynamics of long-lived species. PMID:27505437

Linking mortuary data improves vital statistics on cause of death of children under five years in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

PubMed

Groenewald, Pam; Bradshaw, Debbie; Neethling, Ian; Martin, Lorna J; Dempers, Johan; Morden, Erna; Zinyakatira, Nesbert; Coetzee, David

2016-01-01

Reducing child mortality requires good information on its causes. Whilst South African vital registration data have improved, the quality of cause-of-death data remains inadequate. To improve this, data from death certificates were linked with information from forensic mortuaries in Western Cape Province. A local mortality surveillance system was established in 2007 by the Western Cape Health Department to improve data quality. Cause-of-death data were captured from copies of death notification forms collected at Department of Home Affairs Offices. Using unique identifiers, additional forensic mortuary data were linked with mortality surveillance system records. Causes of death were coded to the ICD-10 classification. Causes of death in children under five were compared with those from vital registration data for 2011. Cause-of-death data were markedly improved with additional data from forensic mortuaries. The proportion of ill-defined causes was halved (25-12%), and leading cause rankings changed. Lower respiratory tract infections moved above prematurity to rank first, accounting for 20.8% of deaths and peaking in infants aged 1-3 months. Only 11% of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections occurred in hospital, resulting in 86% being certified in forensic mortuaries. Road traffic deaths increased from 1.1-3.1% (27-75) and homicides from 3 to 28. The quality and usefulness of cause-of-death information for children in the WC was enhanced by linking mortuary and vital registration data. Given the death profile, interventions are required to prevent and manage LRTI, diarrhoea and injuries and to reduce neonatal deaths. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Copenhagen five-second squeeze: a valid indicator of sports-related hip and groin function.

PubMed

Thorborg, K; Branci, S; Nielsen, M P; Langelund, M T; Hölmich, P

2017-04-01

No simple clinical measure exits to evaluate groin pain and its severity in athletes. The aim was to investigate the validity, reliability and responsiveness of a five-second hip-adduction squeeze test for football players designed to assess sports-related hip and groin function, pain and severity. Construct validity was assessed in 667 subelite male football players with a mean age (±SD) of 24±4 in the beginning of the season. Responsiveness and reliability were evaluated during the season in 52 and 10 players, respectively. Players answered the Copenhagen Hip and Groin Outcome Score (HAGOS) and performed the Copenhagen five-second squeeze assessed on a Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NRS) ranging from 0 to 10. As hypothesised higher pain scores during the Copenhagen five-second squeeze correlated significantly (Spearman's rho=-0.61, p<0.01) with a lesser HAGOS (Sport) Score. The change scores in the Copenhagen five-second squeeze also correlated significantly (Spearman's rho=-0.51, p<0.01), with HAGOS (Sport) change scores in the responsiveness analysis, and test-retest reliability (concordance correlation coefficient) was 0.90. Moreover, significant (p<0.01) between-group differences existed for HAGOS (Sport) Scores in players reporting groin pain intensity at one of the 3 different pain levels: NRS (0-2), NRS (3-5) and NRS (6-10). The NRS (6-10) group had the lowest median (IQR) HAGOS (Sport) Score of 47 (31-61). The Copenhagen five-second squeeze is a valid indicator of sports-related hip and groin function in football players. Players reporting groin pain intensity as 6 of 10 or more in the Copenhagen five-second squeeze experience substantially impaired sports-related hip and groin function. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Yang, Xilin; So, Wing Yee; Tong, Peter C Y; Ma, Ronald C W; Kong, Alice P S; Lam, Christopher W K; Ho, Chung Shun; Cockram, Clive S; Ko, Gary T C; Chow, Chun-Chung; Wong, Vivian C W; Chan, Juliana C N

2008-03-10

Diabetes reduces life expectancy by 10 to 12 years, but whether death can be predicted in type 2 diabetes mellitus remains uncertain. A prospective cohort of 7583 type 2 diabetic patients enrolled since 1995 were censored on July 30, 2005, or after 6 years of follow-up, whichever came first. A restricted cubic spline model was used to check data linearity and to develop linear-transforming formulas. Data were randomly assigned to a training data set and to a test data set. A Cox model was used to develop risk scores in the test data set. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test data set. A total of 619 patients died during a median follow-up period of 5.51 years, resulting in a mortality rate of 18.69 per 1000 person-years. Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, cancer history, insulin use, blood hemoglobin levels, linear-transformed body mass index, random spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at enrollment were predictors of all-cause death. A risk score for all-cause mortality was developed using these predictors. The predicted and observed death rates in the test data set were similar (P > .70). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 for 5 years of follow-up. Using the risk score in ranking cause-specific deaths, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 for genitourinary death, 0.85 for circulatory death, 0.85 for respiratory death, and 0.71 for neoplasm death. Death in type 2 diabetes mellitus can be predicted using a risk score consisting of commonly measured clinical and biochemical variables. Further validation is needed before clinical use.

Comparison of Three Contemporary Risk Scores for Mortality Following Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

PubMed Central

Grant, S.W.; Hickey, G.L.; Carlson, E.D.; McCollum, C.N.

2014-01-01

Objective/background A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. Methods The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Results The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76–0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. Conclusion All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. PMID:24837173

Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

PubMed

Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

2014-07-01

A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright © 2014 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Parsonnet scoring model predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in India?

PubMed

Srilata, Moningi; Padhy, Narmada; Padmaja, Durga; Gopinath, Ramachandran

2015-01-01

To validate the Parsonnet scoring model to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indian scenario. A total of 889 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between January 2010 and April 2011 were included in the study. The Parsonnet score was determined for each patient and its predictive ability for in-hospital mortality was evaluated. The validation of Parsonnet score was performed for the total data and separately for the sub-groups coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve surgery and combined procedures (CABG with valve surgery). The model calibration was performed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis for discrimination. Independent predictors of mortality were assessed from the variables used in the Parsonnet score by multivariate regression analysis. The overall mortality was 6.3% (56 patients), 7.1% (34 patients) for CABG, 4.3% (16 patients) for valve surgery and 16.2% (6 patients) for combined procedures. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was <0.05 for the total data and also within the sub-groups suggesting that the predicted outcome using Parsonnet score did not match the observed outcome. The area under the ROC curve for the total data was 0.699 (95% confidence interval 0.62-0.77) and when tested separately, it was 0.73 (0.64-0.81) for CABG, 0.79 (0.63-0.92) for valve surgery (good discriminatory ability) and only 0.55 (0.26-0.83) for combined procedures. The independent predictors of mortality determined for the total data were low ejection fraction (odds ratio [OR] - 1.7), preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (OR - 10.7), combined procedures (OR - 5.1), dialysis dependency (OR - 23.4), and re-operation (OR - 9.4). The Parsonnet score yielded a good predictive value for valve surgeries, moderate predictive value for the total data and for CABG and poor predictive value for combined procedures.

Predicting mortality among older adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: an enhanced confusion, urea, respiratory rate and blood pressure score compared with pneumonia severity index.

PubMed

Abisheganaden, John; Ding, Yew Yoong; Chong, Wai-Fung; Heng, Bee-Hoon; Lim, Tow Keang

2012-08-01

Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) predicts mortality better than Confusion, Urea >7 mmol/L, Respiratory rate >30/min, low Blood pressure: diastolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg or systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, and age >65 years (CURB-65) for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) but is more cumbersome. The objective was to determine whether CURB enhanced with a small number of additional variables can predict mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI. Retrospective review of medical records and administrative data of adults aged 55 years or older hospitalized for CAP over 1 year from three hospitals. For 1052 hospital admissions of unique patients, 30-day mortality was 17.2%. PSI class and CURB-65 predicted 30-day mortality with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.80) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.74) respectively. When age and three co-morbid conditions (metastatic cancer, solid tumours without metastases and stroke) were added to CURB, the AUC improved to 0.80 (95% CI: 0.77-0.83). Bootstrap validation obtained an AUC estimate of 0.78, indicating negligible overfitting of the model. Based on this model, a clinical score (enhanced CURB score) was developed that had possible values from 5 to 25. Its AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83) and remained similar to that of PSI class. An enhanced CURB score predicted 30-day mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI class did among older adults hospitalized for CAP. External validation of this score in other populations is the next step to determine whether it can be used more widely. © 2012 The Authors. Respirology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT)

PubMed Central

Protopapa, K L; Simpson, J C; Smith, N C E; Moonesinghe, S R

2014-01-01

Background Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study. Methods The data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort. Results Prospective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001). Conclusion The SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery. PMID:25388883

Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

2010-01-01

Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Impact of parental socioeconomic factors on childhood cancer mortality: a population-based registry study.

PubMed

Tolkkinen, Anniina; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura; Taskinen, Mervi; Rantanen, Matti; Malila, Nea; Pitkäniemi, Janne

2018-06-04

Parental socioeconomic status has been proposed to have an influence on childhood cancer mortality even in high-income countries. Our study investigated the influence of parental socioeconomic factors on childhood cancer mortality. We identified 4437 patients diagnosed with cancer under the age of 20 from 1990 to 2009 and their parents from the Finnish cancer and central population registers. Information on death from primary cancer during five-year follow-up and parental socioeconomic factors was obtained from Statistics Finland. Poisson regression modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for factors related to cause-specific mortality and recursive tree based survival analysis to identify important risk factors and interactions. Mortality was lower in the highest quartile of combined parental disposable income (HR 0.68, CI 95% 0.52-0.89) compared to the lowest quartile. In the most recent diagnostic period from 2000 to 2009, highest attained education of either parent being post-secondary predicted lower mortality (HR 0.73, CI 95% 0.60-0.88) compared to parents who had attained primary or lower education. Despite high quality public health care and comprehensive social security, both high parental income and education were associated with lower mortality after childhood cancer. Lower health literacy and financial pressures limiting treatment adherence may explain higher mortality in children with less educated parents and parents with lower income. Motivation and support during treatment and follow-up period is needed concerning the families of these patients.

Validity of Highlighting on Text Comprehension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, Joey C. Y.; Chan, Alan H. S.

2009-10-01

In this study, 38 university students were tested with a Chinese reading task on an LED display under different task conditions for determining the effects of the highlighting and its validity on comprehension performance on light-emitting diodes (LED) display for Chinese reading. Four levels of validity (0%, 33%, 67% and 100%) and a control condition with no highlighting were tested. Each subject was required to perform the five experimental conditions in which different passages were read and comprehended. The results showed that the condition with 100% validity of highlighting was found to have better comprehension performance than other validity levels and conditions with no highlighting. The comprehension score of the condition without highlighting effect was comparatively lower than those highlighting conditions with distracters, though not significant.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

PubMed

Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

2000-02-01

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

1998-10-01

Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Five year change in alcohol intake and risk of breast cancer and coronary heart disease among postmenopausal women: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dam, Marie K; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Grønbæk, Morten; Tolstrup, Janne S

2016-05-11

To test the hypothesis that postmenopausal women who increase their alcohol intake over a five year period have a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease compared with stable alcohol intake. Prospective cohort study. Denmark, 1993-2012. 21 523 postmenopausal women who participated in the Diet, Cancer, and Health Study in two consecutive examinations in 1993-98 and 1999-2003. Information on alcohol intake was obtained from questionnaires completed by participants. Incidence of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and all cause mortality during 11 years of follow-up. Information was obtained from the Danish Cancer Register, Danish Hospital Discharge Register, Danish Register of Causes of Death, and National Central Person Register. We estimated hazard ratios according to five year change in alcohol intake using Cox proportional hazards models. During the study, 1054, 1750, and 2080 cases of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, and mortality occurred, respectively. Analyses modelling five year change in alcohol intake with cubic splines showed that women who increased their alcohol intake over the five year period had a higher risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of coronary heart disease than women with a stable alcohol intake. For instance, women who increased their alcohol intake by seven or 14 drinks per week (corresponding to one or two drinks more per day) had hazard ratios of breast cancer of 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.23) and 1.29 (1.07 to 1.55), respectively, compared to women with stable intake, and adjusted for age, education, body mass index, smoking, Mediterranean diet score, parity, number of births, and hormone replacement therapy. For coronary heart disease, corresponding hazard ratios were 0.89 (0.81 to 0.97) and 0.78 (0.64 to 0.95), respectively, adjusted for age, education, body mass index, Mediterranean diet score, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and diabetes. Results among women who reduced their alcohol intake over the five year period were not significantly associated with risk of breast cancer or coronary heart disease. Analyses of all cause mortality showed that women who increased their alcohol intake from a high intake (≥14 drinks per week) to an even higher intake had a higher mortality risk that women with a stable high intake. In this study of postmenopausal women over a five year period, results support the hypotheses that alcohol intake is associated with increased risk of breast cancer and decreased risk of coronary heart disease. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[AIMS65 score validation for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the National Hospital Cayetano Heredia].

PubMed

Aguilar Sánchez, Víctor; Bravo Paredes, Eduar Alban; Pinto Valdivia, José Luis; Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa; Espinoza-Rios, Jorge Luis

2015-01-01

To validate the score AIMS65 in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, in terms of mortality and rebleeding a 30-day event. Patients included were those with higher age to 18 years attending the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia during the period May 2013 to December 2014, by upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Data were analyzed using ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic) and the area was obtained under the curve (AUC) to properly qualify the score AIMS65. 209 patients were included, 66.03% were male, with an average age of 58.02 years. The mortality rate was 7.65%, the multiorgan failure the most common cause of death. Plus 3.82% of the patients had recurrent bleeding and 11% required a transfusion of more than 2 units of blood. When analyzing the ROC curve with AIMS65 and mortality score a value of 0.9122 is reported; identifying it as cutoff greater than or equal to 3 value in the score AIMS65 to discriminate patients at high risk of death, likewise the ROC curve was analyzed for recurrence of bleeding with a value of 0.6266 and the need to Transfusion of packed red blood cells over two a value of 0.7421. And it was determined the average hospital stay with a value of 4.8 days, however, no correlation was found with the score AIMS65. AIMS65 score is a good predictor of mortality, and is useful for predicting the need for transfusion of more than 2 globular packages. However it is not a good predictor for recurrence of bleeding, or hospital stay.

The Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Bypass (CRAB) facilitates efficient perioperative risk assessment for patients with critical limb ischemia.

PubMed

Meltzer, Andrew J; Graham, Ashley; Connolly, Peter H; Meltzer, Ellen C; Karwowski, John K; Bush, Harry L; Schneider, Darren B

2013-05-01

Specific perioperative risk assessment models have been developed for bariatric, pancreatic, and colorectal surgery. A similar instrument, specific for patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI), could improve patient-centered clinical decision making. We describe a novel tool to predict 30-day major morbidity and mortality (M&M) after bypass surgery for CLI. Data for 4985 individuals from the 2007 to 2009 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were used to develop and internally validate the model. Outcome measures included mortality, major morbidity, and a composite end point (M&M). M&M included mortality and the most severe postoperative morbidities that were highly associated with death (eg, sepsis and major cardiopulmonary complications). More than 30 preoperative factors were tested for association with 30-day mortality, major morbidity, and M&M. Significant predictors in multivariate models were assigned integer values (points), which were added to calculate a patient's Comprehensive Risk Assessment For Bypass (CRAB) score. Performance was assessed (C-index) across all outcome measures and compared with other general tools (American Society of Anesthesiologists class, Surgical Risk Scale) and existing CLI-specific survival prediction models (Finnvasc score, Edifoligide for the Prevention of Infrainguinal Vein Graft Failure [PREVENT III] score) on a distinct validation sample (n = 1620). In the derivation data set (n = 3275), the 30-day mortality rate was 2.9%. The rate of any major morbidity was 19.1%. The composite end point M&M occurred in 10.1%. Significant predictors of M&M by multivariate analysis included age >75 years, prior amputation or revascularization, tissue loss, dialysis dependence, severe cardiac disease, emergency operation, and functional dependence. Applied to a distinct validation sample of 1620 patients, higher CRAB scores were significantly associated with higher rates of mortality, all major morbidities, and M&M (P < .0001). Comparison with other models by assessment of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve revealed the CRAB was a more accurate predictor of mortality, all major morbidity, and M&M. The CRAB is a CLI-specific, risk assessment instrument derived from multi-institutional American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical outcomes data that out-performs existing prognostic risk indices in the prediction of clinically significant adverse events after bypass surgery. Use of the CRAB as a risk assessment tool provides an evidence basis for patient-centered clinical decision making and may have a role in identifying patients at higher risk for surgical revascularization in whom an endovascular approach is preferable. Copyright © 2013 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Mosquito adulticidal and repellent activities of botanical extracts against malarial vector, Anopheles stephensi Liston (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Govindarajan, Marimuthu; Sivakumar, Rajamohan

2011-12-01

To determine the adulticidal and repellent activities of different solvent leaf extracts of Eclipta alba (E. alba) and Andrographis paniculata (A. paniculata) against malarial vector, Anopheles stephensi (An. stephensi). Adulticidal efficacy of the crude leaf extracts of E. alba and A. paniculata with five different solvents like benzene, hexane, ethyl acetate, methanol and chloroform was tested against the five to six day old adult female mosquitoes of An. stephensi. The adult mortality was observed after 24 h under the laboratory conditions. The repellent efficacy was determined against An. stephensi mosquito species at three concentrations viz., 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 mg/cm(2) under laboratory conditions. Among the tested solvents the maximum efficacy was observed in the methanol extract. The LC(50) and LC(90) values of E. alba and A. paniculata against adults of An. stephensi were 150.36, 130.19 ppm and 285.22, 244.16 ppm, respectively. No mortality was observed in controls. The chi-square values were significant at P<0.05 level. Methanol extract of E. alba and A. paniculata was produce maximum repellency against An. stephensi. From the results it can be concluded the crude extract of E. alba and A. paniculata was an excellent potential for controlling An. stephensi mosquitoes. Copyright © 2011 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The geography of mortality from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutter, J. C.; Mara, V.; Jayaprakash, S.; None

2011-12-01

Hurricane Katrina was one of the highest mortality disasters in US history. Typical hurricanes of the same strength take very few lives. Katrina's mortality is exceeded only by the so-called Galveston Flood (a hurricane) of 1900 that occurred at a time when forecasting was poor and evacuation was possible only by train or horse. The levee failures in New Orleans were a major contributing factor unique to Katrina. An examination of the characteristics of mortality may give insight into the cause of the great scope of the tragedy and the special vulnerability of those who died. We examine the spatial aspects of mortality. The locations of deceased victims were matched with victim information including age, race and gender for approximately 800 victims (data from Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals). From this we can analyze for spatial clustering of mortality. We know that Katrina took a particularly heavy toll on the elderly so we can analyze, for instance, whether the elderly were more likely to die in some locations than in others. Similarly, we analyze for gender and race against age (dividing age into five groups this gives 20 categories) as a factory in the geographic distribution of mortality as a way to recover measures of vulnerability. We can also correlate the spatial characteristics of mortality with underlying causes that might contribute to vulnerability. Data is available at a census block level on household income, poverty rates, education, home ownership, car ownership and a variety of other factors that can be correlated with the spatial mortality data. This allows for a multi-parameter estimation of factors that govern mortality in this unusually high mortality event.

Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease: a molecular and genetic association study.

PubMed

Zewinger, Stephen; Kleber, Marcus E; Tragante, Vinicius; McCubrey, Raymond O; Schmidt, Amand F; Direk, Kenan; Laufs, Ulrich; Werner, Christian; Koenig, Wolfgang; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Mons, Ute; Breitling, Lutz P; Brenner, Herrmann; Jennings, Richard T; Petrakis, Ioannis; Triem, Sarah; Klug, Mira; Filips, Alexandra; Blankenberg, Stefan; Waldeyer, Christoph; Sinning, Christoph; Schnabel, Renate B; Lackner, Karl J; Vlachopoulou, Efthymia; Nygård, Ottar; Svingen, Gard Frodahl Tveitevåg; Pedersen, Eva Ringdal; Tell, Grethe S; Sinisalo, Juha; Nieminen, Markku S; Laaksonen, Reijo; Trompet, Stella; Smit, Roelof A J; Sattar, Naveed; Jukema, J Wouter; Groesdonk, Heinrich V; Delgado, Graciela; Stojakovic, Tatjana; Pilbrow, Anna P; Cameron, Vicky A; Richards, A Mark; Doughty, Robert N; Gong, Yan; Cooper-DeHoff, Rhonda; Johnson, Julie; Scholz, Markus; Beutner, Frank; Thiery, Joachim; Smith, J Gustav; Vilmundarson, Ragnar O; McPherson, Ruth; Stewart, Alexandre F R; Cresci, Sharon; Lenzini, Petra A; Spertus, John A; Olivieri, Oliviero; Girelli, Domenico; Martinelli, Nicola I; Leiherer, Andreas; Saely, Christoph H; Drexel, Heinz; Mündlein, Axel; Braund, Peter S; Nelson, Christopher P; Samani, Nilesh J; Kofink, Daniel; Hoefer, Imo E; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Ko, Yi-An; Hartiala, Jaana A; Allayee, Hooman; Tang, W H Wilson; Hazen, Stanley L; Eriksson, Niclas; Held, Claes; Hagström, Emil; Wallentin, Lars; Åkerblom, Axel; Siegbahn, Agneta; Karp, Igor; Labos, Christopher; Pilote, Louise; Engert, James C; Brophy, James M; Thanassoulis, George; Bogaty, Peter; Szczeklik, Wojciech; Kaczor, Marcin; Sanak, Marek; Virani, Salim S; Ballantyne, Christie M; Lee, Vei-Vei; Boerwinkle, Eric; Holmes, Michael V; Horne, Benjamin D; Hingorani, Aroon; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Patel, Riyaz S; Krämer, Bernhard K; Scharnagl, Hubert; Fliser, Danilo; März, Winfried; Speer, Thimoteus

2017-07-01

Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear. We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts. The median follow-up was 9·9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·14-1·83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1·88, 1·40-2·53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0·95, 0·81-1·11 and either LPA SNP 1·10, 0·92-1·31) or cardiovascular mortality (0·99, 0·81-1·2 and 1·13, 0·90-1·40, respectively) or in the validation studies. In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established. Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technical Development (AtheroRemo and RiskyCAD), INTERREG IV Oberrhein Programme, Deutsche Nierenstiftung, Else-Kroener Fresenius Foundation, Deutsche Stiftung für Herzforschung, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Saarland University, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Willy Robert Pitzer Foundation, and Waldburg-Zeil Clinics Isny. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Close Relationships in Terror Management: A Systematic Review and Research Agenda.

PubMed

Plusnin, Nicholas; Pepping, Christopher A; Kashima, Emiko S

2018-02-01

Terror management theory outlines how humans seek self-esteem and worldview validation to manage death-related anxiety. Accumulating evidence reveals that close relationships serve a similar role. However, to date, there has been no synthesis of the literature that delineates when close relationships buffer mortality concerns, under what conditions, on which specific outcomes, and for whom. This systematic review presents over two decades of research to address these questions. Findings from 73 reviewed studies revealed that close relationships serve an important role in buffering death-related anxiety. A range of dispositional and situational moderating factors influence either the activation or inhibition of relational strivings to manage heightened death awareness, the most influential being attachment, gender, and relationship-contingent self-esteem. These findings were integrated into an overarching model that highlights some of the conditions under which mortality salience (MS) influences relational outcomes. We conclude by highlighting a range of theoretical and methodological concerns to be addressed by future research.

Elective hepatic resection in the elderly.

PubMed

Mentha, G; Huber, O; Robert, J; Klopfenstein, C; Egeli, R; Rohner, A

1992-06-01

This retrospective review assessed the safety and validity of elective liver resection in patients older than 64 years of age. In all, 293 patients underwent elective liver resection over a 23-year period (1967-1990). Fifty-two patients (18 per cent) were older than 64 (maximum 84, mean 70.4) years and all but four of these did not have cirrhosis. In this older subgroup, indications for resection were liver metastases in 30 patients, primary malignancy in 16, benign tumours in five and multiple abscesses in one. There were 21 major resections, with two deaths from hepatic failure, and 31 minor resections, with one death from cardiac failure (total mortality rate 6 per cent). During the same period, there were seven deaths after elective resections performed in 222 patients without cirrhosis who were younger than 64 years (P = 0.39). Mortality rate and duration of postoperative hospital stay were not related to the extent of liver resection nor to patients' grading according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists' criteria. Intraoperative blood loss was the only parameter found to influence mortality rate (P = 0.008) and duration of hospital stay (P = 0.04). Elective liver resection can be safely undertaken in elderly patients without cirrhosis, provided that intraoperative blood loss is minimized.

Development and validation of the new ICNARC model for prediction of acute hospital mortality in adult critical care.

PubMed

Ferrando-Vivas, Paloma; Jones, Andrew; Rowan, Kathryn M; Harrison, David A

2017-04-01

To develop and validate an improved risk model to predict acute hospital mortality for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. 155,239 admissions to 232 adult critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between January and December 2012 were used to develop a risk model from a set of 38 candidate predictors. The model was validated using 90,017 admissions between January and September 2013. The final model incorporated 15 physiological predictors (modelled with continuous nonlinear models), age, dependency prior to hospital admission, chronic liver disease, metastatic disease, haematological malignancy, CPR prior to admission, location prior to admission/urgency of admission, primary reason for admission and interaction terms. The model was well calibrated and outperformed the current ICNARC model on measures of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.885 versus 0.869) and model fit (Brier's score 0.108 versus 0.115). On average, the new model reclassified patients into more appropriate risk categories (net reclassification improvement 19.9; P<0.0001). The model performed well across patient subgroups and in specialist critical care units. The risk model developed in this study showed excellent discrimination and calibration and when validated on a different period of time and across different types of critical care unit. This in turn allows improved accuracy of comparisons between UK critical care providers. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluation of a methodology to validate National Death Index retrieval results among a cohort of U.S. service members.

PubMed

Skopp, Nancy A; Smolenski, Derek J; Schwesinger, Daniel A; Johnson, Christopher J; Metzger-Abamukong, Melinda J; Reger, Mark A

2017-06-01

Accurate knowledge of the vital status of individuals is critical to the validity of mortality research. National Death Index (NDI) and NDI-Plus are comprehensive epidemiological resources for mortality ascertainment and cause of death data that require additional user validation. Currently, there is a gap in methods to guide validation of NDI search results rendered for active duty service members. The purpose of this research was to adapt and evaluate the CDC National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) algorithm for mortality ascertainment in a large military cohort. We adapted and applied the NPCR algorithm to a cohort of 7088 service members on active duty at the time of death at some point between 2001 and 2009. We evaluated NDI validity and NDI-Plus diagnostic agreement against the Department of Defense's Armed Forces Medical Examiner System (AFMES). The overall sensitivity of the NDI to AFMES records after the application of the NPCR algorithm was 97.1%. Diagnostic estimates of measurement agreement between the NDI-Plus and the AFMES cause of death groups were high. The NDI and NDI-Plus can be successfully used with the NPCR algorithm to identify mortality and cause of death among active duty military cohort members who die in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk factors for on-farm mortality in beef suckler cows under extensive keeping management.

PubMed

Mõtus, Kerli; Emanuelson, Ulf

2017-08-01

The on-farm mortality of cows in cow-calf herds has a significant influence on the economic efficiency of the farm. It is also an indicator of suboptimal animal health and welfare. The present study analysed the registry data of beef cows in Estonia from the years 2013 to 2015. The datasets incorporated 8084 parturitions of primiparous cows and 21,283 parturitions of 9234 multiparous cows. A Weibull proportional hazard random effect model was used for risk factor analysis, in which the on-farm mortality, including death and euthanasia, was the event of interest. The first 30days post-calving were associated with the highest mortality hazard for primiparous and multiparous cows (including 28.9% and 21.1% of deaths, respectively). In multiparous cows, the lowest mortality hazard was confirmed for animals with parity of three to five, increasing significantly after that. Primiparous cows that did not have a stillborn calf had a significantly higher mortality hazard when calving over 44months of age compared to cows calving younger than 36months. Stillbirth and abortion were significant risk factors for mortality. Cows with dystocia experienced a higher mortality hazard, especially during the first week post-calving. In multiparous cows, a higher herd mean age at first calving was associated with a higher mortality hazard. This study highlights the fact that the early post-partum period and factors associated with calving, such as age at first calving, dystocia, stillbirth and abortion, are critical for beef cow survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hospital-Based Mortality in Federal Capital Territory Hospitals-Nigeria, 2005 - 2008

PubMed Central

Preacely, Nykiconia; Biya, Oladayo; Gidado, Saheed; Ayanleke, Halima; Kida, Mohammed; Akhimien, Moses; Abubakar, Aisha; Kurmi, Ibrahim; Ajayi, Ikeoluwapo; Nguku, Patrick; Akpan, Henry

2012-01-01

Background Cause-specific mortality data are important to monitor trends in mortality over time. Medical records provide reliable documentation of the causes of deaths occurring in hospitals. This study describes all causes of mortality reported at hospitals in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria. Methods Deaths reported in 15 secondary and tertiary FCT hospitals occurring from January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2008 were identified by a retrospective review of hospital records conducted by the Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Program (NFELTP). Data extracted from the records included sociodemographics, geographic area of residence and underlying cause-of-death information. Results A total of 4,623 deaths occurred in the hospitals. Overall, the top five causes of death reported were: HIV 951 (21%), road traffic accidents 422 (9%), malaria 264 (6%), septicemia 206 (5%), and hypertension 194 (4%). The median age at death was 30 years (range: 0-100); 888 (20%) of deaths were among those less than one year of age. Among children < 1 year, low birth weight and infections were responsible for the highest proportion 131 (15%) of reported mortality. Conclusion Many of the leading causes of mortality identified in this study are preventable. Infant mortality is a large public health problem in FCT hospitals. Although these findings are not representative of all FCT deaths, they may be used to quantify mortality in that occurs in FCT hospitals. These data combined with other mortality surveillance data can provide evidence to inform policy on public health strategies and interventions for the FCT. PMID:22655100

Five years of monitoring infection and mortality in redwood tanoak forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Shannon C. Lynch; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David M. Rizzo

2008-01-01

Rates of disease incidence and tree mortality in redwood-tanoak forests were determined by repeated sampling across a system of 120 plots at five long-term research sites from 2001 through 2006. Plots were located within the known geographic area of Phytophthora ramorum in California, ranging from Monterey to Sonoma counties. All overstory species...

Patterns and predictors of malaria care-seeking, diagnostic testing, and artemisinin-based combination therapy for children under five with fever in Northern Nigeria: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Millar, Kathryn R; McCutcheon, Jennifer; Coakley, Eugenie H; Brieger, William; Ibrahim, Mohammed A; Mohammed, Zainab; Bassi, Amos; Sambisa, William

2014-11-21

Despite recent improvements in malaria prevention strategies, malaria case management remains a weakness in Northern Nigeria, which is underserved and suffers the country's highest rates of under-five child mortality. Understanding malaria care-seeking patterns and comparing case management outcomes to World Health Organization (WHO) and Nigeria's National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) guidelines are necessary to identify where policy and programmatic strategies should focus to prevent malaria mortality and morbidity. A cross-sectional survey based on lot quality assurance sampling was used to collect data on malaria care-seeking for children under five with fever in the last two weeks throughout Sokoto and Bauchi States. The survey assessed if the child received NMCP/WHO recommended case management: prompt treatment, a diagnostic blood test, and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Deviations from this pathway and location of treatment were also assessed. Lastly, logistic regression was used to assess predictors of seeking treatment. Overall, 76.7% of children were brought to treatment-45.5% to a patent medicine vendor and 43.8% to a health facility. Of children brought to treatment, 61.5% sought treatment promptly, but only 9.8% received a diagnostic blood test and 7.2% received a prompt ACT. When assessing adherence to the complete case management pathway, only 1.0% of children received NMCP/WHO recommended treatment. When compared to other treatment locations, health facilities provided the greatest proportion of children with NMCP/WHO recommended treatment. Lastly, children 7-59 months old were at 1.74 (p = 0.003) greater odds of receiving treatment than children ≤6 months. Northern Nigeria's coverage rates of NMCP/WHO standard malaria case management for children under five with fever fall short of the NMCP goal of 80% coverage by 2010 and universal coverage thereafter. Given the ability to treat a child with malaria differs greatly between treatment locations, policy and logistics planning should address the shortages of essential malaria supplies in recommended and frequently accessed treatment locations. Particular emphasis should be placed on integrating the private sector into standardized care and educating caregivers on the necessity for testing before treatment and the availability of free ACT in public health facilities for uncomplicated malaria.

Housing materials as predictors of under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from 2013 demographic and health survey.

PubMed

Adebowale, Stephen Ayo; Morakinyo, Oyewale Mayowa; Ana, Godson Rowland

2017-01-19

Nigeria is among countries with high Under-Five Mortality (U5M) rates worldwide. Both maternal and childhood factors have been linked to U5M in the country. However, despite the growing global recognition of the association between housing and quality of life, the role of housing materials as predictors of U5M remain largely unexplored in Nigeria. This study, therefore, investigated the relationship between housing materials and U5M in Nigeria. The study utilised the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data. A representative sample of 40,680 households was selected for the survey. The sample included 18,516 women of reproductive age who had given birth in the past 5 years prior the survey; with attention on the survival status of the index child (the most recent delivery). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, Cox-proportional hazard and Brass 2-parameter models (α = 0.05). The hazard ratio of U5M was 1.46 (C.I = 1.02-1.47, p < 0.001) and 1.23 (C.I = 1.24-1.71, p < 0.001) higher among children who lived in houses built with inadequate and moderate housing materials respectively than those in good housing materials. Under-five deaths show a downward trend (slope = -0.4871) relative to the housing materials assessment score. The refined U5M rate was 143.5, 127.0 and 90.8 per 1000 live birth among women who live in houses built with inadequate, moderate and adequate housing materials respectively. Other predictors of U5M were; the size of the child at birth, preceding birth interval, prenatal care provider, residence and education. Under-five death reduces with increasing maternal level of; education, wealth quintile, media exposure and housing material type and mostly experienced by Muslim women (6.0%), rural women (6.5%) and women residence in the North-West geopolitical zones (6.9%). Living in houses built with poor housing materials promoted U5M in Nigeria. Provision of sustainable housing by the government and the maintenance of existing housing stock to healthful conditions will play a significant role in reducing the burden of U5M in Nigeria.

Measuring leader perceptions of school readiness for reforms: use of an iterative model combining classical and Rasch methods.

PubMed

Chatterji, Madhabi

2002-01-01

This study examines validity of data generated by the School Readiness for Reforms: Leader Questionnaire (SRR-LQ) using an iterative procedure that combines classical and Rasch rating scale analysis. Following content-validation and pilot-testing, principal axis factor extraction and promax rotation of factors yielded a five factor structure consistent with the content-validated subscales of the original instrument. Factors were identified based on inspection of pattern and structure coefficients. The rotated factor pattern, inter-factor correlations, convergent validity coefficients, and Cronbach's alpha reliability estimates supported the hypothesized construct properties. To further examine unidimensionality and efficacy of the rating scale structures, item-level data from each factor-defined subscale were subjected to analysis with the Rasch rating scale model. Data-to-model fit statistics and separation reliability for items and persons met acceptable criteria. Rating scale results suggested consistency of expected and observed step difficulties in rating categories, and correspondence of step calibrations with increases in the underlying variables. The combined approach yielded more comprehensive diagnostic information on the quality of the five SRR-LQ subscales; further research is continuing.

Development and validation of a continuous measure of patient condition using the Electronic Medical Record.

PubMed

Rothman, Michael J; Rothman, Steven I; Beals, Joseph

2013-10-01

Patient condition is a key element in communication between clinicians. However, there is no generally accepted definition of patient condition that is independent of diagnosis and that spans acuity levels. We report the development and validation of a continuous measure of general patient condition that is independent of diagnosis, and that can be used for medical-surgical as well as critical care patients. A survey of Electronic Medical Record data identified common, frequently collected non-static candidate variables as the basis for a general, continuously updated patient condition score. We used a new methodology to estimate in-hospital risk associated with each of these variables. A risk function for each candidate input was computed by comparing the final pre-discharge measurements with 1-year post-discharge mortality. Step-wise logistic regression of the variables against 1-year mortality was used to determine the importance of each variable. The final set of selected variables consisted of 26 clinical measurements from four categories: nursing assessments, vital signs, laboratory results and cardiac rhythms. We then constructed a heuristic model quantifying patient condition (overall risk) by summing the single-variable risks. The model's validity was assessed against outcomes from 170,000 medical-surgical and critical care patients, using data from three US hospitals. Outcome validation across hospitals yields an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) of ≥0.92 when separating hospice/deceased from all other discharge categories, an AUC of ≥0.93 when predicting 24-h mortality and an AUC of 0.62 when predicting 30-day readmissions. Correspondence with outcomes reflective of patient condition across the acuity spectrum indicates utility in both medical-surgical units and critical care units. The model output, which we call the Rothman Index, may provide clinicians with a longitudinal view of patient condition to help address known challenges in caregiver communication, continuity of care, and earlier detection of acuity trends. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internal validity of an anxiety disorder screening instrument across five ethnic groups.

PubMed

Ritsher, Jennifer Boyd; Struening, Elmer L; Hellman, Fred; Guardino, Mary

2002-08-30

We tested the factor structure of the National Anxiety Disorder Screening Day instrument (n=14860) within five ethnic groups (White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American). Conducted yearly across the US, the screening is meant to detect five common anxiety syndromes. Factor analyses often fail to confirm the validity of assessment tools' structures, and this is especially likely for minority ethnic groups. If symptoms cluster differently across ethnic groups, criteria for conventional DSM-IV disorders are less likely to be met, leaving significant distress unlabeled and under-detected in minority groups. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses established that the items clustered into the six expected factors (one for each disorder plus agoraphobia). This six-factor model fit the data very well for Whites and not significantly worse for each other group. However, small areas of the model did not appear to fit as well for some groups. After taking these areas into account, the data still clearly suggest more prevalent PTSD symptoms in the Black, Hispanic and Native American groups in our sample. Additional studies are warranted to examine the model's external validity, generalizability to more culturally distinct groups, and overlap with other culture-specific syndromes.

Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality and validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score and Hardman index in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Kurc, Erol; Sanioglu, Soner; Ozgen, Ayca; Aka, Serap Aykut; Yekeler, Ibrahim

2012-06-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and Hardman index in patients operated on because of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and determining preoperative risk factors that affect in-hospital mortality. One hundred one patients operated on to repair a rAAA within the last 10 years were included. The GAS and Hardman index were calculated for each patient separately. The relation between in-hospital mortality and the Hardman index and GAS was analyzed by means of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate methods of analyses were used to determine preoperative risk factors. Average age was 69 ± 8, and in-hospital mortality rate was 51.5%. Analysis of the ROC curve showed that the Hardman index had an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.593-0.800, P = 0.0002) for predicting in-hospital mortality. The GAS had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.680-0.851, P < 0.0001). The results of multivariate analysis revealed the presence of the following preoperative risk factors: age more than 63 years (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% CI, 1.17-16.49, P = 0.028); loss of consciousness (OR, 9.33; 95% CI, 1.94-44.86, P = 0.005); creatinine higher than 1.7 mg/dL (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 1.92-15.85, P = 0.001); and pH lower than 7.31 (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.18-11.99, P = 0.024). In conclusion, the Hardman index and GAS have a significant correlation with in-hospital mortality rates. Nevertheless, a high score does not necessarily correspond with a definite mortality. This is why scoring systems could not be considered as the sole criterion for choosing patients for this study. Clinical experience was still the leading factor in deciding against or in favor of surgery.

Application and Validation of a GIS Model for Local Tsunami Vulnerability and Mortality Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Frauenfelder, R.; Kaiser, G.; Glimsdal, S.; Sverdrup-thygeson, K.; Løvholt, F.; Gruenburg, L.; Mc Adoo, B. G.

2015-12-01

The 2011 Tōhoku tsunami caused a high number of fatalities and massive destruction. Data collected after the event allow for retrospective analyses. Since 2009, NGI has developed a generic GIS model for local analyses of tsunami vulnerability and mortality risk. The mortality risk convolves the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The hazard is represented by the maximum tsunami flow depth (with a corresponding likelihood), the exposure is described by the population density in time and space, while the vulnerability is expressed by the probability of being killed as a function of flow depth and building class. The analysis is further based on high-resolution DEMs. Normally a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period is applied for vulnerability and mortality risk analysis. Hence, the model was first employed for a tsunami forecast scenario affecting Bridgetown, Barbados, and further developed in a forecast study for the city of Batangas in the Philippines. Subsequently, the model was tested by hindcasting the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in American Samoa. This hindcast was based on post-tsunami information. The GIS model was adapted for optimal use of the available data and successfully estimated the degree of mortality.For further validation and development, the model was recently applied in the RAPSODI project for hindcasting the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami in Sendai and Ishinomaki. With reasonable choices of building vulnerability, the estimated expected number of fatalities agree well with the reported death toll. The results of the mortality hindcast for the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami substantiate that the GIS model can help to identify high tsunami mortality risk areas, as well as identify the main risk drivers.The research leading to these results has received funding from CONCERT-Japan Joint Call on Efficient Energy Storage and Distribution/Resilience against Disasters (http://www.concertjapan.eu; project RAPSODI - Risk Assessment and design of Prevention Structures fOr enhanced tsunami DIsaster resilience http://www.ngi.no/en/Project-pages/RAPSODI/), and from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe http://www.astarte-project.eu/).

Defining Surrogate Endpoints for Clinical Trials in Severe Falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Plewes, Katherine; Maude, Richard J.; Hanson, Josh; Herdman, M. Trent; Leopold, Stije J.; Ngernseng, Thatsanun; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Phu, Nguyen Hoan; Ghose, Aniruddha; Hasan, M. Mahtab Uddin; Fanello, Caterina I.; Faiz, Md Abul; Hien, Tran Tinh; Day, Nicholas P. J.; White, Nicholas J.; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2017-01-01

Background Clinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria. Methods Three datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African ‘AQUAMAT’ trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese ‘AQ’ study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures. Results Improvements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the ‘AQUAMAT’ study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery. Conclusions The relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality. PMID:28052109

Defining Surrogate Endpoints for Clinical Trials in Severe Falciparum Malaria.

PubMed

Jeeyapant, Atthanee; Kingston, Hugh W; Plewes, Katherine; Maude, Richard J; Hanson, Josh; Herdman, M Trent; Leopold, Stije J; Ngernseng, Thatsanun; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Phu, Nguyen Hoan; Ghose, Aniruddha; Hasan, M Mahtab Uddin; Fanello, Caterina I; Faiz, Md Abul; Hien, Tran Tinh; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; Dondorp, Arjen M

2017-01-01

Clinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria. Three datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African 'AQUAMAT' trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese 'AQ' study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures. Improvements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the 'AQUAMAT' study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery. The relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality.

Development of a Middle-Age and Geriatric Trauma Mortality Risk Score A Tool to Guide Palliative Care Consultations.

PubMed

Konda, Sanjit R; Seymour, Rachel; Manoli, Arthur; Gales, Jordan; Karunakar, Madhav A

2016-11-01

This study aimed to develop a tool to quantify risk of inpatient mortality among geriatric and middleaged trauma patients. This study sought to demonstrate the ability of the novel risk score in the early identification of high risk trauma patients for resource-sparing interventions, including referral to palliative medicine. This retrospective cohort study utilized data from a single level 1 trauma center. Regression analysis was used to create a novel risk of inpatient mortality score. A total of 2,387 low energy and 1,201 high-energy middle-aged (range: 55 to 64 years of age) and geriatric (65 years of age or odler) trauma patients comprised the study cohort. Model validation was performed using 37,474 lowenergy and 97,034 high-energy patients from the National Trauma Databank (NTDB). Potential hospital cost reduction was calculated for early referral of high risk trauma patients to palliative medicine services in comparison to no palliative medicine referral. Factors predictive of inpatient mortality among the study and validation patient cohorts included; age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head and neck and chest. Within the validation cohort, the novel mortality risk score demonstrated greater predictive capacity than existing trauma scores [STTGMALE-AUROC: 0.83 vs. TRISS 0.80, (p < 0.01), STTGMAHE-AUROC: 0.86 vs. TRISS 0.85, (p < 0.01)]. Our model demonstrated early palliative medicine evaluation could produce $1,083,082 in net hospital savings per year. This novel risk score for older trauma patients has shown fidelity in prediction of inpatient mortality; in the study and validation cohorts. This tool may be used for early intervention in the care of patients at high risk of mortality and resource expenditure.

Supercentenarians: slower ageing individuals or senile elderly?

PubMed

Robine, J; Vaupel, J W

2001-04-01

Although the increase in the number of centenarians is well documented today, at least in some countries, this is still not the case for people having reached the age of 110 years or more: the supercentenarians. The supercentenarians emerged in the mid-1960s. Their numbers have regularly increased since the mid-1970s. The current prevalence of known supercentenarians in countries involved in the database is approximately five to six times more than in the mid-1970s. In roughly 20 years the maximum age observed has increased by about 10 years from 112 to 122 years. The annual probability of death at age 110 is as low as 0.52 with the validated data (n=106) or with the exhaustive and validated data (n=73). The probabilities of death stagnate between 110 and 115 years, and all the computed probabilities fall below the ceiling of 0.6. Our results are compatible with the last extrapolations of mortality trajectories using a logistic or a quadratic model.

PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

A Two-Biomarker Model Predicts Mortality in the Critically Ill with Sepsis.

PubMed

Mikacenic, Carmen; Price, Brenda L; Harju-Baker, Susanna; O'Mahony, D Shane; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; Radella, Frank; Hahn, William O; Katz, Ronit; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Liles, W Conrad; Wurfel, Mark M

2017-10-15

Improving the prospective identification of patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and sepsis at low risk for organ dysfunction and death is a major clinical challenge. To develop and validate a multibiomarker-based prediction model for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with SIRS and sepsis. A derivation cohort (n = 888) and internal test cohort (n = 278) were taken from a prospective study of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients meeting two of four SIRS criteria at an academic medical center for whom plasma was obtained within 24 hours. The validation cohort (n = 759) was taken from a prospective cohort enrolled at another academic medical center ICU for whom plasma was obtained within 48 hours. We measured concentrations of angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2, IL-6, IL-8, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and soluble Fas. We identified a two-biomarker model in the derivation cohort that predicted mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.83). It performed well in the internal test cohort (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.85) and the external validation cohort (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.83). We determined a model score threshold demonstrating high negative predictive value (0.95) for death. In addition to a low risk of death, patients below this threshold had shorter ICU length of stay, lower incidence of acute kidney injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and need for vasopressors. We have developed a simple, robust biomarker-based model that identifies patients with SIRS/sepsis at low risk for death and organ dysfunction.

Reducing child mortality in Nigeria: a case study of immunization and systemic factors.

PubMed

Nwogu, Rufus; Ngowu, Rufus; Larson, James S; Kim, Min Su

2008-07-01

The purpose of the study is to assess the outcome of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Nigeria, as well as to examine systemic factors influencing its high under-five mortality rate (UFMR). The principal objective of the EPI program when it was implemented in 1978 was to reduce mortality, morbidity and disability associated with six vaccine preventable diseases namely tuberculosis, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, pertussis and poliomyelitis. The methodological approach to this study is quantitative, using secondary time series data from 1970 to 2003. The study tested three hypotheses using time series multiple regression analysis with autocorrelation adjustment as a statistical model. The results showed that the EPI program had little effect on UFMR in Nigeria. Only the literacy rate and domestic spending on healthcare had statistically significant effects on the UFMR. The military government was not a significant factor in reducing or increasing the UFMR. It appears that Nigeria needs a unified approach to healthcare delivery, rather than fragmented programs, to overcome cultural and political divisions in society.

Buried Alive: The Behavioural Response of the Mussels, Modiolus modiolus and Mytilus edulis to Sudden Burial by Sediment

PubMed Central

Hutchison, Zoë L.; Hendrick, Vicki J.; Burrows, Michael T.; Wilson, Ben; Last, Kim S.

2016-01-01

Sedimentation in the sea occurs through natural processes, such as wave and tidal action, which can be exacerbated during storms and floods. Changes in terrestrial land use, marine aggregate extraction, dredging, drilling and mining are known to result in substantial sediment deposition. Research suggests that deposition will also occur due to the modern development of marine renewable energy. The response to individual burial under three depths of sediment, three sediment fractions and five burial durations was investigated in two mussel species, Modiolus modiolus and Mytilus edulis in specialist mesocosms. Both mussel species showed substantial mortality, which increased with duration of burial and burial by finer sediment fractions. M. modiolus was better able to survive short periods of burial than M. edulis, but at longer durations mortality was more pronounced. No mortality was observed in M. modiolus in burial durations of eight days or less but by 16 days of burial, over 50% cumulative mortality occurred. Under variable temperature regimes, M. edulis mortality increased from 20% at 8°C to over 60% at 14.5 and 20°C. Only M. edulis was able to emerge from burial, facilitated by increased byssus production, laid mostly on vertical surfaces but also on sediment particles. Emergence was higher from coarse sediment and shallow burials. Byssus production in M. edulis was not related to the condition index of the mussels. Results suggest that even marginal burial would result in mortality and be more pronounced in warm summer periods. Our results suggest that in the event of burial, adult M. modiolus would not be able to emerge from burial unless local hydrodynamics assist, whereas a small proportion of M. edulis may regain contact with the sediment water interface. The physiological stress resulting in mortality, contribution of local hydrodynamics to survival and other ecological pressures such as mussels existing in aggregations, are discussed. PMID:26982582

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

PubMed

Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

2017-05-22

PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains.

PubMed

Csilléry, Katalin; Kunstler, Georges; Courbaud, Benoît; Allard, Denis; Lassègues, Pierre; Haslinger, Klaus; Gardiner, Barry

2017-12-01

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms -1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2 years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Operationalization and Validation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) Fall Risk Algorithm in a Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Lohman, Matthew C.; Crow, Rebecca S.; DiMilia, Peter R.; Nicklett, Emily J.; Bruce, Martha L.; Batsis, John A.

2017-01-01

Background Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool’s predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. Methods Data from five annual rounds (2011–2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 and older in the US. Analytic sample respondents (n=7,392) were categorized at baseline as having low, moderate, or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. Results Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI: 3.51, 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared to those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. Conclusion The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardize screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted. PMID:28947669

Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D.

2014-07-15

Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increasedmore » risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) = 1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (ω), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.« less

An Investigation on Attributes of Ambient Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range on Mortality in Five East-Asian Countries.

PubMed

Lee, Whan-Hee; Lim, Youn-Hee; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Jang, Hye-Min; Kim, Ho

2017-08-31

Interest in the health effects of extremely low/high ambient temperature and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) on mortality as representative indices of temperature variability is growing. Although numerous studies have reported on these indices independently, few studies have provided the attributes of ambient temperature and DTR related to mortality, concurrently. In this study, we aimed to investigate and compare the mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature and DTR. The study included data of 63 cities in five East-Asian countries/regions during various periods between 1972 and 2013. The attributable risk of non-accidental death to ambient temperature was 9.36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.98-9.69%) and to DTR was 0.59% (95% CI: 0.53-0.65%). The attributable cardiovascular mortality risks to ambient temperature (15.63%) and DTR (0.75%) are higher than the risks to non-accidental/respiratory-related mortality. We verified that ambient temperature plays a larger role in temperature-associated mortality, and cardiovascular mortality is susceptible to ambient temperature and DTR.

Antibiotics for the treatment of Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium in children.

PubMed

Das, Jai K; Ali, Anum; Salam, Rehana A; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2013-01-01

Diarrhea is a major contributor to the burden of morbidity and mortality in children; it accounts for a median of 11% of all deaths among children aged less than 5 years, amounting to approximately 0.8 million deaths per year. Currently there is a dearth of literature exploring the effectiveness of antibiotics for diarrhea due to Cholera, Shigella and cryptosporidiosis in children. We reviewed the literature reporting the effect of antibiotics for the treatment of diarrhea due to Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium in children under five years. We used a standardized abstraction and grading format and performed meta-analyses to determine the effect of the treatment with various antibiotics on mortality and rates of clinical and bacteriological/parasitological failure. The CHERG Standard Rules were applied to determine the final effect of treatment with antibiotics on diarrhea morbidity and mortality. For Cholera; the evidence was weak to recommend any effect on mortality. For Shigella; there was no data on mortality; either all-cause or cause specific, hence we used clinical failure rates as a proxy for Shigella deaths and propose that treatment of Shigella dysentery with antibiotics can result in a 82% reduction in diarrhea mortality due to Shigella. For cryptosporidiosis; there was data on all-cause mortality but the evidence was weak hence we used clinical failure rates as a proxy for mortality to estimate that antimicrobial treatment of diarrhea due to cryptosporidiosis can result in a 54% reduction in mortality. There is evidence to recommend antibiotic use for reduction of morbidity and mortality due to Cholera, Shigella and Cryptosporidium. We recommend that more clinical trials should be conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of first- and second- line drugs currently in use for treatment for diarrhea and dysentery in both developing and developed countries.

A developmental screening tool for toddlers with multiple domains based on Rasch analysis.

PubMed

Hwang, Ai-Wen; Chou, Yeh-Tai; Hsieh, Ching-Lin; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Liao, Hua-Fang; Wong, Alice May-Kuen

2015-01-01

Using multidomain developmental screening tools is a feasible method for pediatric health care professionals to identify children at risk of developmental problems in multiple domains simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to develop a Rasch-based tool for Multidimensional Screening in Child Development (MuSiC) for children aged 0-3 years. The MuSic was developed by constructing items bank based on three commonly used screening tools, validating with developmental status (at risk for delay or not) on five developmental domains. Parents of a convenient sample of 632 children (aged 3-35.5 months) with and without developmental delays responded to items from the three screening tools funded by health authorities in Taiwan. Item bank was determined by item fit of Rasch analysis for each of the five developmental domains (cognitive skills, language skills, gross motor skills, fine motor skills, and socioadaptive skills). Children's performance scores in logits derived in Rasch analysis were validated with developmental status for each domain using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves. MuSiC, a 75-item developmental screening tool for five domains, was derived. The diagnostic validity of all five domains was acceptable for all stages of development, except for the infant stage (≤11 months and 15 days). MuSiC can be applied simultaneously to well-child care visits as a universal screening tool for children aged 1-3 years on multiple domains. Items with sound validity for infants need to be further developed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prevalence of intestinal parasitic infections in children under the age of 5 years attending the Debre Birhan referral hospital, North Shoa, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Zemene, Telanesh; Shiferaw, Melashu Balew

2018-01-22

Intestinal parasitic infection is one of the major childhood health problems in developing countries. In Ethiopia, epidemiological data for several localities is limited. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess intestinal parasitic infections among under-five children attending in Debre Birhan referral hospital, which could help to decrease morbidity and mortality in children. A cross-sectional study was conducted in February, 2014. Stool specimens were collected and examined using concentration method. Out of the 247 under-five children participated, 17.4% (95% CI 12.7-22.1%) of the children were infected with at least one or more protozoa parasites (14.2% [95% CI 9.9-18.5%]) and helminthes (3.2% [95% CI 1.0-5.4%]). Giardia lamblia (8.5%), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (5.7%), Trichuris trichiura (1.6%) and Ascaris lumbricoides (1.2%) were the most identified parasites. Parasitic infection was higher in children who had source of drinking water from the river (36.8%), among children from mothers with poor hand washing practice (31.7%), and among children born from illiterate mothers (27.5%). This revealed that intestinal parasites affect the health of under-five children in the setting. Hence, improving environmental hygiene and inadequate water sanitation, and health education for behavioral changes to personal hygiene would be crucial for effective control of the parasite infections.

Early embryo mortality in natural human reproduction: What the data say

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Gavin E.

2017-01-01

How many human embryos die between fertilisation and birth under natural conditions? It is widely accepted that natural human embryo mortality is high, particularly during the first weeks after fertilisation, with total prenatal losses of 70% and higher frequently claimed. However, the first external sign of pregnancy occurs two weeks after fertilisation with a missed menstrual period, and establishing the fate of embryos before this is challenging. Calculations are additionally hampered by a lack of data on the efficiency of fertilisation under natural conditions. Four distinct sources are used to justify quantitative claims regarding embryo loss: (i) a hypothesis published by Roberts & Lowe in The Lancet  is widely cited but has no practical quantitative value; (ii) life table analyses give consistent assessments of clinical pregnancy loss, but cannot illuminate losses at earlier stages of development; (iii) studies that measure human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) reveal losses in the second week of development and beyond, but not before; and (iv) the classic studies of Hertig and Rock offer the only direct insight into the fate of human embryos from fertilisation under natural conditions. Re-examination of Hertig’s data demonstrates that his estimates for fertilisation rate and early embryo loss are highly imprecise and casts doubt on the validity of his numerical analysis. A recent re-analysis of hCG study data concluded that approximately 40-60% of embryos may be lost between fertilisation and birth, although this will vary substantially between individual women. In conclusion, natural human embryo mortality is lower than often claimed and widely accepted. Estimates for total prenatal mortality of 70% or higher are exaggerated and not supported by the available data. PMID:28580126