Covariate Measurement Error Correction Methods in Mediation Analysis with Failure Time Data

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shanshan

2014-01-01

Summary Mediation analysis is important for understanding the mechanisms whereby one variable causes changes in another. Measurement error could obscure the ability of the potential mediator to explain such changes. This paper focuses on developing correction methods for measurement error in the mediator with failure time outcomes. We consider a broad definition of measurement error, including technical error and error associated with temporal variation. The underlying model with the ‘true’ mediator is assumed to be of the Cox proportional hazards model form. The induced hazard ratio for the observed mediator no longer has a simple form independent of the baseline hazard function, due to the conditioning event. We propose a mean-variance regression calibration approach and a follow-up time regression calibration approach, to approximate the partial likelihood for the induced hazard function. Both methods demonstrate value in assessing mediation effects in simulation studies. These methods are generalized to multiple biomarkers and to both case-cohort and nested case-control sampling design. We apply these correction methods to the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials to understand the mediation effect of several serum sex hormone measures on the relationship between postmenopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer risk. PMID:25139469

Covariate measurement error correction methods in mediation analysis with failure time data.

PubMed

Zhao, Shanshan; Prentice, Ross L

2014-12-01

Mediation analysis is important for understanding the mechanisms whereby one variable causes changes in another. Measurement error could obscure the ability of the potential mediator to explain such changes. This article focuses on developing correction methods for measurement error in the mediator with failure time outcomes. We consider a broad definition of measurement error, including technical error, and error associated with temporal variation. The underlying model with the "true" mediator is assumed to be of the Cox proportional hazards model form. The induced hazard ratio for the observed mediator no longer has a simple form independent of the baseline hazard function, due to the conditioning event. We propose a mean-variance regression calibration approach and a follow-up time regression calibration approach, to approximate the partial likelihood for the induced hazard function. Both methods demonstrate value in assessing mediation effects in simulation studies. These methods are generalized to multiple biomarkers and to both case-cohort and nested case-control sampling designs. We apply these correction methods to the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials to understand the mediation effect of several serum sex hormone measures on the relationship between postmenopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer risk. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

Robots, systems, and methods for hazard evaluation and visualization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nielsen, Curtis W.; Bruemmer, David J.; Walton, Miles C.

A robot includes a hazard sensor, a locomotor, and a system controller. The robot senses a hazard intensity at a location of the robot, moves to a new location in response to the hazard intensity, and autonomously repeats the sensing and moving to determine multiple hazard levels at multiple locations. The robot may also include a communicator to communicate the multiple hazard levels to a remote controller. The remote controller includes a communicator for sending user commands to the robot and receiving the hazard levels from the robot. A graphical user interface displays an environment map of the environment proximatemore » the robot and a scale for indicating a hazard intensity. A hazard indicator corresponds to a robot position in the environment map and graphically indicates the hazard intensity at the robot position relative to the scale.« less

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

16 CFR 1500.127 - Substances with multiple hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Substances with multiple hazards. 1500.127 Section 1500.127 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION FEDERAL HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES ACT REGULATIONS HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES AND ARTICLES; ADMINISTRATION AND ENFORCEMENT REGULATIONS § 1500.127...

Cellular and Molecular Mechanisms of Alveolar Destruction in Emphysema

PubMed Central

Tuder, Rubin M.; Yoshida, Toshinori; Arap, Wadih; Pasqualini, Renata; Petrache, Irina

2006-01-01

Emphysema consists of a unique pattern of alveolar destruction, resulting in marked airspace enlargement with reduction of alveolar capillary exchange area. Classical concepts of the pathogenesis of emphysema have relied on the paradigm set by the inflammation and protease/antiprotease imbalance. We propose herein that cigarette smoke constitutes an environmental hazard that causes alveolar destruction by the interaction of apoptosis, oxidative stress, and protease/antiprotease imbalance. We draw a parallel between organismal aging, organ structural maintenance, and the damage resulting from chronic cigarette smoke inhalation. The stochastic interaction between environmental hazards and the effort of an organism or a particular organ to fend off these hazards results in the accumulation of cellular damage and features characteristic of aging. Inflammation follows as the result of the multiplication of injuries. We highlight the importance of understanding the biology of the interaction of alveolar cells in homeostasis and in alveolar destruction, and the potential role of novel processes related to senescence and stress response. An evolutionary perspective of emphysema that incorporates mechanisms related to aging may lead to important advances in the understanding and therapeutic targeting of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. PMID:16921129

Landslides in everyday life: An interdisciplinary approach to understanding vulnerability in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudmeier-Rieux, K.; Breguet, A.; Dubois, J.; Jaboyedoff, M.

2009-04-01

Several thousand landslides were triggered by the Kashmir earthquake, scarring the hillside with cracks. Monsoon rains continue to trigger landslides, which have increased the exposure of populations because of lost agricultural lands, blocked roads and annual fatalities due to landslides. The great majority of these landslides are shallow and relatively small but greatly impacting the population. In this region, landslides were a factor before the earthquake, mainly due to road construction and gravel excavation, but the several thousand landslides triggered by the earthquake have completely overwhelmed the local population and authorities. In Eastern Nepal, the last large earthquake to hit this region occurred in 1988, also triggering numerous landslides and cracks. Here, landslides can be considered a more common phenomenon, yet coping capacities amount to local observations of landslide movement, subsequent abandonment of houses and land as they become too dangerous. We present a comparative case study from Kashmir, Pakistan and Eastern Nepal, highlighting an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the complex interactions between land use, landslides and vulnerability. Our approach sets out to understand underlying causes of the massive landslides triggered by the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, Pakistan, and also the increasing number of landslides in Nepal. By approaching the issue of landslides from multiple angles (risk perceptions, land use, local coping capacities, geological assessment, risk mapping) and multiple research techniques (remote sensing, GIS, geological assessment, participatory mapping, focus groups) we are better able to create a more complete picture of the "hazardscape". We find that by combining participatory social science research with hazard mapping, we obtain a more complete understanding of underlying causes, coping strategies and possible mitigation options, placing natural hazards in the context of everyday life. This method is relatively simple, low cost and useful to local authorities or development agencies in planning and managing development projects, which include a hazard management aspect. We discuss some of our successes, some obstacles and ideas for future research.

Integrating the science and socio-economics of resilience along the Northeastern coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.; Jones, S.; Andersen, M. E.; Focazio, M. J.; Fulton, J. W.; Muir, R.

2014-12-01

New systems for early warning of coastal hazards, and a more accurate assessment of vulnerability of coastal regions and resources are needed to safely occupy, use, and protect the ecosystem services of our coastal landscapes and waters. The US Geological Survey and their Federal, State, Local, Non-government, and Academic partners have initiated a suite of projects to improve coastal resilience in the Northeast through better scientific understanding, modeling, and decision support. Improving coastal resilience requires understanding the complex interactions of several components of the coastal environment and their combined response to disturbances such as sea level rise, more powerful storms, development pressure, pollution, and resource extraction. New USGS research is focused on improving our capacity to predict coastal hazards and define the thresholds of resilience required for a range of sea-level rise and storm-surge scenarios. Predictive models of earth processes and ecological responses are being refined, thus improving early warning of disturbance in specific coastal sub-regions, and refining maps of the relative vulnerabilities of coastal features and communities from Virginia to Maine. Better understanding of sand sources and transport for beach replenishment and protective berms, mapping contaminant sources and release pathways, defining the factors controlling marsh accretion or migration, linking coastal and watershed hydrology, and networking new and existing tide, surge, and wave monitoring for real-time tracking of water hazards represent the multiple science products being combined to understand and protect coastal ecosystems, communities, and commerce. The integrated science underway is clarifying the thresholds of tolerance for multiple disturbance vectors in the coastal environment, and informing long-term, science-based strategies that will support "whole system" resilience into the future. A new multi-agency effort to establish metrics for measuring change in coastal resilience will build off this integrated science to help guide future coastal science in the most productive directions.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

SEE Design Guide and Requirements for Electrical Deadfacing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berki, Joe M.; Sargent, Noel; Kauffman, W. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The purpose of this design guide is to present information for understanding and mitigating the potential hazards associated with de-mating and mating powered electrical connectors on space flight vehicles. The process of staging is a necessary function in the launching of space vehicles and in the deployment of satellites, and now in manned assembly of systems in space. During this electrical interconnection process, various environments may be encountered that warrant the restriction of the voltage and current present across the pins of an electrical connector prior to separation, mating, or in a static open non-mated configuration. This process is called deadfacing. These potentially hazardous environments encompass the obvious explosive fuel vapors and human shock hazard, to multiple Electro-Magnetic Interference (EMI) phenomena related to the rapid rate of change in current as well as exposure to Radio Frequency (RF) fields.

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

2005-12-01

The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

Comparative hazard analysis and toxicological modeling of diverse nanomaterials using the embryonic zebrafish (EZ) metric of toxicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Bryan; Thomas, Dennis; Chikkagoudar, Satish; Baker, Nathan; Tang, Kaizhi; Heredia-Langner, Alejandro; Lins, Roberto; Harper, Stacey

2015-06-01

The integration of rapid assays, large datasets, informatics, and modeling can overcome current barriers in understanding nanomaterial structure-toxicity relationships by providing a weight-of-the-evidence mechanism to generate hazard rankings for nanomaterials. Here, we present the use of a rapid, low-cost assay to perform screening-level toxicity evaluations of nanomaterials in vivo. Calculated EZ Metric scores, a combined measure of morbidity and mortality in developing embryonic zebrafish, were established at realistic exposure levels and used to develop a hazard ranking of diverse nanomaterial toxicity. Hazard ranking and clustering analysis of 68 diverse nanomaterials revealed distinct patterns of toxicity related to both the core composition and outermost surface chemistry of nanomaterials. The resulting clusters guided the development of a surface chemistry-based model of gold nanoparticle toxicity. Our findings suggest that risk assessments based on the size and core composition of nanomaterials alone may be wholly inappropriate, especially when considering complex engineered nanomaterials. Research should continue to focus on methodologies for determining nanomaterial hazard based on multiple sub-lethal responses following realistic, low-dose exposures, thus increasing the availability of quantitative measures of nanomaterial hazard to support the development of nanoparticle structure-activity relationships.

Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

2015-04-01

Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

Evidence of Past Large Storms or Tsunamis from an Uplifted Section of the Southern Hikurangi Margin, Wairarapa Coast, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, S. P.; Jessica, P.; Clark, K.; Kosciuch, T. J.; Reinhardt, E. G.

2017-12-01

Evidence of past large storms or tsunamis from an uplifted section of the southern Hikurangi margin, Wairarapa coast, New Zealand Stephen Mitchell1, Jessica Pilarczyk1, Kate Clark2, Thomas Kosciuch1, Eduard Reinhardt31University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Marine Science 2GNS Science, New Zealand 3McMaster University The Hikurangi margin, located along the east coast of New Zealand, has generated multiple tsunamigenic-earthquakes in the historic times that have impacted coastlines of the North Island. Knowledge of the possible magnitudes and recurrence intervals associated with Hikurangi earthquakes and tsunamis is necessary to understand and mitigate hazards facing New Zealand's coasts. Events such as the 1931 Napier earthquake, which caused severe ground shaking, and the Gisborne tsunami of 1947 that reached 10 meters high, demonstrate the earthquake and tsunami hazards associated with the Hikurangi margin. To better understand these hazards, longer-term geologic records are needed. Along the Wairarapa coast of the North Island of New Zealand, marine terraces provide evidence for multiple Hikurangi earthquakes over the past 7,000 years. Evidence for possible tsunami inundation in this area has also been discovered, but the record is patchy in spatial and temporal extent. We found three anomalous sand layers preserved within an uplifted beach exposure along the Wairarapa coast. The sand layers, consisting of very fine to coarse sand (3.5-0.8 Φ), sharply overlie paleosols containing fine to medium sized silt (6.1-7.1 Φ) in a sequence that extends for approximately 400 meters along shore. We assign a marine origin to the sand layers because they contain relatively high elemental concentrations of calcium and barium. By contrast, the paleosols contained relatively high elemental concentrations of iron. The marine sands contain evidence in support of tsunami inundation; rip-up clasts, coarse pulses, fining upward sequences, and erosive contacts were observed in each of the three sands. Radiocarbon dating will constrain the ages of the marine sands, providing a record of possible tsunamis­­ that may be used to better understand tsunami hazards along the southern Hikurangi margin.

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

2009-04-01

Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the general formula of risk = hazard x damage, transfer from analyze of separate risk to its complex one; (iii) Taking into account the reality of Georgia and complex scheme of revealed risk in separate district of the country during the construction of multiple risk models. Investigation of each step reveals problem according to essential parts in the multiple risks assessments, such as communication between scientists, engineers, civil protection and other agencies. A big gap in such kind of relationship leads to lack of important information, such as economic loss according to each hazard. Low level in education according in natural hazards cause bad management and sometimes increase economic and mortality loss.

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Cost assessment of natural hazards in Europe - state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, V.; Becker, N.; Markantonis, V.; Schwarze, R.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; Bubeck, P.; Ciavola, P.; Thieken, A. H.; Genovese, E.; Green, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Kreibich, H.; Lequeux, Q.; Viavattenne, C.; Logar, I.; Papyrakis, E.; Pfurtscheller, C.; Poussin, J.; Przyluski, V.

2012-04-01

Effective and efficient reduction of natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types. Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. CONHAZ differentiates between direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation. It is shown that the main focus of cost assessment methods and their application in practice is on direct costs, while existing methods for assessing intangible and indirect effects are rather rarely applied and methods for assessing indirect effects often cannot be used on the scale of interest (e.g. the regional scale). Furthermore, methods often focus on single sectors and/or hazards, and only very few are able to reflect several sectors or multiple hazards. Process understanding and its use in cost assessment is poor, leading to highly uncertain results. However, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses as well as validations are hardly undertaken. Important recommendations are that cost assessment can be made more comprehensive by including indirect and intangible effects. Furthermore, the importance is highlighted of identifying sources of uncertainties, of reducing them effectively and of documenting remaining ones. One source of uncertainty concerns data sources. A framework for supporting data collection on the European level ensuring minimum data quality standards would facilitate the development and consistency of European and national databases. Furthermore, an improvement of methods is needed with regard to a better understanding and modelling of the damaging processes. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the economic response to external shocks and to improve models for indirect cost assessment based on this. Also models to estimate direct economic damage need to be based on more knowledge about the complex processes leading to damages. Moreover, the dynamics of risk due to climate and socio-economic change have to be better considered in the models in order to unveil uncertainties about future developments in the costs of natural hazards. Finally, there is a need for appropriate and transparent tools and guidance to support decision makers in the integration of uncertain cost assessment figures into decision making.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Compiler-assisted multiple instruction rollback recovery using a read buffer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alewine, N. J.; Chen, S.-K.; Fuchs, W. K.; Hwu, W.-M.

1993-01-01

Multiple instruction rollback (MIR) is a technique that has been implemented in mainframe computers to provide rapid recovery from transient processor failures. Hardware-based MIR designs eliminate rollback data hazards by providing data redundancy implemented in hardware. Compiler-based MIR designs have also been developed which remove rollback data hazards directly with data-flow transformations. This paper focuses on compiler-assisted techniques to achieve multiple instruction rollback recovery. We observe that some data hazards resulting from instruction rollback can be resolved efficiently by providing an operand read buffer while others are resolved more efficiently with compiler transformations. A compiler-assisted multiple instruction rollback scheme is developed which combines hardware-implemented data redundancy with compiler-driven hazard removal transformations. Experimental performance evaluations indicate improved efficiency over previous hardware-based and compiler-based schemes.

Research and development at ORNL/CESAR towards cooperating robotic systems for hazardous environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, R. C.; Fujimura, K.; Unseren, M. A.

1992-01-01

One of the frontiers in intelligent machine research is the understanding of how constructive cooperation among multiple autonomous agents can be effected. The effort at the Center for Engineering Systems Advanced Research (CESAR) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) focuses on two problem areas: (1) cooperation by multiple mobile robots in dynamic, incompletely known environments; and (2) cooperating robotic manipulators. Particular emphasis is placed on experimental evaluation of research and developments using the CESAR robot system testbeds, including three mobile robots, and a seven-axis, kinematically redundant mobile manipulator. This paper summarizes initial results of research addressing the decoupling of position and force control for two manipulators holding a common object, and the path planning for multiple robots in a common workspace.

Correlation and simple linear regression.

PubMed

Eberly, Lynn E

2007-01-01

This chapter highlights important steps in using correlation and simple linear regression to address scientific questions about the association of two continuous variables with each other. These steps include estimation and inference, assessing model fit, the connection between regression and ANOVA, and study design. Examples in microbiology are used throughout. This chapter provides a framework that is helpful in understanding more complex statistical techniques, such as multiple linear regression, linear mixed effects models, logistic regression, and proportional hazards regression.

Thinking of Wildfire as a Natural Hazard

Treesearch

Sarah McCaffrey

2004-01-01

Natural hazards theory with its emphasis on understanding the human-hazard interaction has much to offer in better understanding how individuals respond to the wildfire hazard. Ironically, very few natural hazards studies have actually looked at wildfires, despite the insights the field might offer. This report is structured around four interrelated questions that are...

Quantification of Treatment Effect Modification on Both an Additive and Multiplicative Scale

PubMed Central

Girerd, Nicolas; Rabilloud, Muriel; Pibarot, Philippe; Mathieu, Patrick; Roy, Pascal

2016-01-01

Background In both observational and randomized studies, associations with overall survival are by and large assessed on a multiplicative scale using the Cox model. However, clinicians and clinical researchers have an ardent interest in assessing absolute benefit associated with treatments. In older patients, some studies have reported lower relative treatment effect, which might translate into similar or even greater absolute treatment effect given their high baseline hazard for clinical events. Methods The effect of treatment and the effect modification of treatment were respectively assessed using a multiplicative and an additive hazard model in an analysis adjusted for propensity score in the context of coronary surgery. Results The multiplicative model yielded a lower relative hazard reduction with bilateral internal thoracic artery grafting in older patients (Hazard ratio for interaction/year = 1.03, 95%CI: 1.00 to 1.06, p = 0.05) whereas the additive model reported a similar absolute hazard reduction with increasing age (Delta for interaction/year = 0.10, 95%CI: -0.27 to 0.46, p = 0.61). The number needed to treat derived from the propensity score-adjusted multiplicative model was remarkably similar at the end of the follow-up in patients aged < = 60 and in patients >70. Conclusions The present example demonstrates that a lower treatment effect in older patients on a relative scale can conversely translate into a similar treatment effect on an additive scale due to large baseline hazard differences. Importantly, absolute risk reduction, either crude or adjusted, can be calculated from multiplicative survival models. We advocate for a wider use of the absolute scale, especially using additive hazard models, to assess treatment effect and treatment effect modification. PMID:27045168

Multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods research of nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Handing; Liang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianfeng; Liu, Weidong; Lei, Dina

2017-01-01

2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant severe accident was caused by both earthquake and tsunami, which results in large amount of radioactive nuclides release. That accident has caused the radioactive contamination on the surrounding environment. Although this accident probability is extremely small, once such an accident happens that is likely to release a lot of radioactive materials into the environment, and cause radiation contamination. Therefore, studying accidents consequences is important and essential to improve nuclear power plant design and management. Level 3 PSA methods of nuclear power plant can be used to analyze radiological consequences, and quantify risk to the public health effects around nuclear power plants. Based on multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods studies of nuclear power plant, and the description of the multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA technology roadmap and important technical elements, as well as taking a coastal nuclear power plant as the reference site, we analyzed the impact of off-site consequences of nuclear power plant severe accidents caused by multiple external hazards. At last we discussed the impact of off-site consequences probabilistic risk studies and its applications under multiple external hazards compound conditions, and explained feasibility and reasonableness of emergency plans implementation.

An agriculture and health inter-sectorial research process to reduce hazardous pesticide health impacts among smallholder farmers in the Andes.

PubMed

Cole, Donald C; Orozco T, Fadya; Pradel, Willy; Suquillo, Jovanny; Mera, Xavier; Chacon, Aura; Prain, Gordon; Wanigaratne, Susitha; Leah, Jessica

2011-11-08

The use of highly hazardous pesticides by smallholder farmers constitutes a classic trans-sectoral 'wicked problem'. We share our program of research in potato and vegetable farming communities in the Andean highlands, working with partners from multiple sectors to confront this problem over several projects. We engaged in iterative cycles of mixed methods research around particular questions, actions relevant to stakeholders, new proposal formulation and implementation followed by evaluation of impacts. Capacity building occurred among farmers, technical personnel, and students from multiple disciplines. Involvement of research users occurred throughout: women and men farmers, non-governmental development organizations, Ministries of Health and Agriculture, and, in Ecuador, the National Council on Social Participation. Pesticide poisonings were more widespread than existing passive surveillance systems would suggest. More diversified, moderately developed agricultural systems had lower pesticide use and better child nutrition. Greater understanding among women of crop management options and more equal household gender relations were associated with reduced farm pesticide use and household pesticide exposure. Involvement in more organic agriculture was associated with greater household food security and food sovereignty. Markets for safer produce supported efforts by smallholder farmers to reduce hazardous pesticide use.Participatory interventions included: promoting greater access to alternative methods and inputs in a store co-sponsored by the municipality; producing less harmful inputs such as compost by women farmers; strengthening farmer organizations around healthier and more sustainable agriculture; marketing safer produce among social sectors; empowering farmers to act as social monitors; and using social monitoring results to inform decision makers. Uptake by policy makers has included: the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health rolling out pesticide poisoning surveillance modeled on our system; the Ecuadorian Association of Municipalities holding a national virtual forum on healthier agriculture; and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Agriculture promulgating restrictions on highly hazardous pesticides in June 2010. Work with multiple actors is needed to shift agriculture towards greater sustainability and human health, particularly for vulnerable smallholders.

76 FR 70408 - Information Collection; Understanding Value Trade-Offs Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-14

... Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA... Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction Programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface. DATES: Comments must be received... holidays. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Understanding Value Trade-offs Regarding Fire Hazard Reduction...

Resilience to Interacting multi-natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

2016-04-01

Conventional analyses of hazard assessment tend to focus on individual hazards in isolation. However, many parts of the world are usually affected by multiple natural hazards with the potential for interacting relationships. The understanding of such interactions, their impacts and the related uncertainties, are an important and topical area of research. Interacting multi-hazards may appear in different forms, including 1) CASCADING HAZARDS (a primary hazard triggering one or more secondary hazards such as an earthquake triggering landslides which may block river channels with dammed lakes and ensued floods), 2) CONCURRING HAZARDS (two or more primary hazards coinciding to trigger or exacerbate secondary hazards such as an earthquake and a rainfall event simultaneously creating landslides), and 3) ALTERING HAZARDS (a primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring such as major earthquakes disturbing soil/rock materials by violent ground shaking which alter the regional patterns of landslides and debris flows in the subsequent years to come). All three types of interacting multi-hazards may occur in natural hazard prone regions, so it is important that research on hazard resilience should cover all of them. In the past decades, great progresses have been made in tackling disaster risk around the world. However, there are still many challenging issues to be solved, and the disasters over recent years have clearly demonstrated the inadequate resilience in our highly interconnected and interdependent systems. We have identified the following weaknesses and knowledge gaps in the current disaster risk management: 1) although our understanding in individual hazards has been greatly improved, there is a lack of sound knowledge about mechanisms and processes of interacting multi-hazards. Therefore, the resultant multi-hazard risk is often significantly underestimated with severe consequences. It is also poorly understood about the spatial and temporal changes in hazards and vulnerability during successive hazards; 2) hazard monitoring, forecasting and early warning systems have not fully utilised the domain knowledge of physical processes and the statistical information of the observations; 3) uncertainties have not been well recognised in the current risk management practice, and ignorance of uncertainties could lead to major threat to the society and poor consideration with inefficient or unsustainable preferences of options; 4) there is increasing recognition that the so called 'natural' disasters are not just the consequences of nature-related processes alone, but are attributable to various social, economic, historical, political and cultural causes. However, despite this recognition, the current hazard and risk assessments are fragmented with a weakness in holistically combining quantitative and qualitative information from a variety of sources; 5) successful disaster risk management must be relevant and useful to all stakeholders involved. Efforts should enable the essential common purpose, collective learning and entrepreneurial collaborations that underpin effective and efficient resilience. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the systems thinking framework and decision support system tools in adequate scenario assessment and resilience development from a harmonised and transdisciplinary perspective. It is important that the aforementioned issues should be tackled with a joint effort from a multidisciplinary team in social science, natural science, engineering and systems.

Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M

2016-11-01

Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.

Our cometary environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Napier, W. M.; Clube, S. V. M.

1997-03-01

The encounter of a small armada of spacecraft with Halley's Comet in 1986, the disintegration and multiple impact of Comet Shoemaker - Levy 9 on Jupiter in 1994, and the application of new technologies to the detection of distant solar system bodies, have led to great revisions in the understanding of comets. Further, rapid improvements in computing power and numerical techniques have permitted the dynamical evolution of comets and asteroids to be followed far into the future and past, and the relationships between families of small interplanetary bodies to be explored. The small body environment is now generally recognized as strongly interacting with the terrestrial one, and may be hazardous on timescales of human as well as geological interest. We review our current understanding of the cometary environment, with particular regard to the hazard it presents. It appears that many comets are handed down from the Oort - Öpik cloud, which is dynamically sensitive to the galactic environment, through the planetary system into Earth-crossing orbits. Thus, the terrestrial environment is subject to stresses which vary cyclically on a number of timescales from planetary to galactic.

Can I Get a Second Opinion? - Translating Hazard Understanding to Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, D. S.; Stough, T.; Murray, J. J.

2015-12-01

Policy makers, operational response agencies and scientists are aware that when addressing hazard events decisions must be made in a timely manner with limited environmental information or less than 100% certainty. This presentation will examine how lessons captured from disaster events are mainstreaming the use of global earth observation data and derived products of sufficient reliability and timeliness to provide situational awareness. What is good enough for disaster response is a challenge, especially where the requirements for earth system research and experimentation are not the same as application science and operations. In areas of timeliness and access to data or processing of information to knowledge the economic and policy objectives are not always aligned between research and application. Even when both are addressing substantive science area questions and critical data is available, creating scientifically-informed guidance, forecasts and assessments may take considerable effort to be made accessible and understandable, and even longer to reflect consensus or consistency. Conveying the degree of science certainty and accountability that triggers a threshold for action is always a challenge at the interface of hazard characterization and disaster response. Often decisions and interpretation must be reached when staring down a hazard or potential disaster situation, which makes automation a potential solution. Yet human opinions remain important, social cultural and behavioral context suggest that observational information, maps, models and other derived information is only acted upon when provided by multiple trusted and reliable sources. This presentation will discuss examples drawn from NASA's research and partnership portfolio in disaster application science and explore strategic approaches to strengthen disaster risk reduction and resilience.

A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

2017-12-01

Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

Equipping students to contribute to development through a geohazards education and research programme (Ladakh, India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

2014-05-01

Here we present a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh, used as an opportunity to train geoscience students in a number of important ethical, cultural and professional considerations. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. Specific aims of this project are to (i) support community education through an interactive natural hazards programme (delivered in conjunction with a range of partners), training school-aged students from multiple socio-economic backgrounds; and (ii) increase the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction programmes, through research into the perception of natural hazards and environmental change. At all stages of this work, we are seeking to engage young geoscientists, helping them to better understand the skills and knowledge-base required to make a long-term, effective contribution to interdisciplinary research and professional practice. Through presenting an overview of this project and associated opportunities, we seek to emphasise the importance of developing practical opportunities for students to consider aspects of geoethics, social responsibility and cross-cultural understanding.

Ongoing research in occupational health and environmental epidemiology in developing countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levy, B.S.; Kjellstrom, T.; Forget, G.

Research in occupational health and environmental epidemiology can play an important role in furthering our understanding of occupational and environmental health problems. Research guides us in the recognition, management, and prevention of health problems. However, in developing countries, where rates of occupational and environmental illnesses and injuries are higher and where these problems are often more severe than in developed countries, research capabilities are less developed. In mid-1990, a project was undertaken to (a) document ongoing research in occupational health and environmental epidemiology in developing countries, (b) facilitate the exchange of information among researchers in this field, (c) stimulate research,more » and (d) avoid unnecessary duplication among researchers in this field. A questionnaire was mailed, the purpose of which was to learn the current status of research in developing countries and to develop a directory of such ongoing research. The questionnaire was sent to 1,528 individuals. Of the 500 research projects identified, 77% were investigating chemical hazards; 26%, physical hazards; 10%, biological hazards; 10%, psychosocial hazards (some projects addressed multiple hazards). The chemical hazards studied most frequently were dusts, pesticides, and lead. The greatest number of research projects were identified in China, India, Brazil, Korea, and Thailand. Most projects were descriptive or cross-sectional epidemiologic studies or industrial hygiene or exposure-assessment studies. The World Health Organization has published a directory of the specific research projects that were identified in this survey.« less

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisses, A.; Kell, A. M.; Kent, G.; Driscoll, N. W.; Karlin, R. E.; Baskin, R. L.; Louie, J. N.; Smith, K. D.; Pullammanappallil, S.

2011-12-01

Preliminary slip rates measured across the East Pyramid Lake fault, or the Lake Range fault, help provide new estimates of extension across the Pyramid Lake basin. Multiple stratigraphic horizons spanning 48 ka were tracked throughout the lake, with layer offsets measured across all significant faults in the basin. A chronstratigraphic framework acquired from four sediment cores allows slip rates of the Lake Range and other faults to be calculated accurately. This region of the northern Walker Lake, strategically placed between the right-lateral strike-slip faults of Honey and Eagle Lakes to the north, and the normal fault bounded basins to the southwest (e.g., Tahoe, Carson), is critical in understanding the underlying structural complexity that is not only necessary for geothermal exploration, but also earthquake hazard assessment due to the proximity of the Reno-Sparks metropolitan area. In addition, our seismic CHIRP imaging with submeter resolution allows the construction of the first fault map of Pyramid Lake. The Lake Range fault can be obviously traced west of Anahoe Island extending north along the east end of the lake in numerous CHIRP lines. Initial drafts of the fault map reveal active transtension through a series of numerous, small, northwest striking, oblique-slip faults in the north end of the lake. A previously field mapped northwest striking fault near Sutcliff can be extended into the west end of Pyramid Lake. This fault map, along with the calculated slip rate of the Lake Range, and potentially multiple other faults, gives a clearer picture into understanding the geothermal potential, tectonic regime and earthquake hazards in the Pyramid Lake basin and the northern Walker Lane. These new results have also been merged with seismicity maps, along with focal mechanisms for the larger events to begin to extend our fault map in depth.

A review and perspective of existing research on the release of nanomaterials from solid nanocomposites

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Advances in adding nanomaterials to various matrices have occurred in tandem with the identification of potential hazards associated with exposure to pure forms of nanomaterials. We searched multiple research publication databases and found that, relative to data generated on potential nanomaterial hazards or exposures, very little attention has focused on understanding the potential and conditions for release of nanomaterials from nanocomposites. However, as a prerequisite to exposure studying release is necessary to inform risk assessments. We identified fifty-four studies that specifically investigated the release of nanomaterials, and review them in the following release scenario groupings: machining, weathering, washing, contact and incineration. While all of the identified studies provided useful information, only half were controlled experiments. Based on these data, the debris released from solid, non-food nanocomposites contains in varying frequencies, a mixture of four types of debris. Most frequently identified are (1) particles of matrix alone, and slightly less often, the (2) matrix particles exhibit the nanomaterial partially or fully embedded; far less frequently is (3) the added nanomaterial entirely dissociated from the matrix identified: and most rare are (4) dissolved ionic forms of the added nanomaterial. The occurrence of specific debris types appeared to be dependent on the specific release scenario and environment. These data highlight that release from nanocomposites can take multiple forms and that additional research and guidance would be beneficial, allowing for more consistent characterization of the release potential of nanomaterials. In addition, these data support calls for method validation and standardization, as well as understanding how laboratory release scenarios relate to real-world conditions. Importantly, as risk is considered to be a function of the inherent hazards of a substance and the actual potential for exposure, data on nanomaterial release dynamics and debris composition from commercially relevant nanocomposites are a valuable starting point for consideration in fate and transport modeling, exposure assessment, and risk assessment frameworks for nanomaterials. PMID:24708765

A review and perspective of existing research on the release of nanomaterials from solid nanocomposites.

PubMed

Froggett, Stephan J; Clancy, Shaun F; Boverhof, Darrell R; Canady, Richard A

2014-04-07

Advances in adding nanomaterials to various matrices have occurred in tandem with the identification of potential hazards associated with exposure to pure forms of nanomaterials. We searched multiple research publication databases and found that, relative to data generated on potential nanomaterial hazards or exposures, very little attention has focused on understanding the potential and conditions for release of nanomaterials from nanocomposites. However, as a prerequisite to exposure studying release is necessary to inform risk assessments. We identified fifty-four studies that specifically investigated the release of nanomaterials, and review them in the following release scenario groupings: machining, weathering, washing, contact and incineration. While all of the identified studies provided useful information, only half were controlled experiments. Based on these data, the debris released from solid, non-food nanocomposites contains in varying frequencies, a mixture of four types of debris. Most frequently identified are (1) particles of matrix alone, and slightly less often, the (2) matrix particles exhibit the nanomaterial partially or fully embedded; far less frequently is (3) the added nanomaterial entirely dissociated from the matrix identified: and most rare are (4) dissolved ionic forms of the added nanomaterial. The occurrence of specific debris types appeared to be dependent on the specific release scenario and environment. These data highlight that release from nanocomposites can take multiple forms and that additional research and guidance would be beneficial, allowing for more consistent characterization of the release potential of nanomaterials. In addition, these data support calls for method validation and standardization, as well as understanding how laboratory release scenarios relate to real-world conditions. Importantly, as risk is considered to be a function of the inherent hazards of a substance and the actual potential for exposure, data on nanomaterial release dynamics and debris composition from commercially relevant nanocomposites are a valuable starting point for consideration in fate and transport modeling, exposure assessment, and risk assessment frameworks for nanomaterials.

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

The Consideration of Multiple Hazards in Civil Defense Planning and Organizational Development

DTIC Science & Technology

arms of local government and administration which must cooperate in an effective response to nuclear disaster . Given present and projected CD funding... nuclear disaster . Many civil defense professionals rightly fear that a multiple-hazards approach could result in an exclusive focus on the more easily

NATIONAL SURVEYS OF MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS TO YOUNG CHILDREN IN HOMES AND CHILD CARE CENTERS

EPA Science Inventory

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has teamed with other federal agencies to characterize exposure of multiple environmental hazards to young children in two main indoor environments, homes and daycare centers. Under the co-sponsorship of HUD and the Nationa...

Mitigation of volcanic hazards to aviation: The need for real-time integration of multiple data sources (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, D. J.

2009-12-01

The successful mitigation of volcanic hazards to aviation requires rapid interpretation and coordination of data from multiple sources, and communication of information products to a variety of end users. This community of information providers and information users include volcano observatories, volcanic ash advisory centers, meteorological watch offices, air traffic control centers, airline dispatch and military flight operations centers, and pilots. Each of these entities has capabilities and needs that are unique to their situations that evolve over a range of time spans. Prior to an eruption, information about probable eruption scenarios are needed in order to allow for contingency planning. Once a hazardous eruption begins, the immediate questions are where, when, how high, and how long will the eruption last? Following the initial detection of an eruption, the need for information changes to forecasting the movement of the volcanic cloud, determining whether ground operations will be affected by ash fall, and estimating how long the drifting volcanic cloud will remain hazardous. A variety of tools have been developed and/or improved over the past several years that provide additional data sources about volcanic hazards that is pertinent to the aviation sector. These include seismic and pressure sensors, ground-based radar and lidar, web cameras, ash dispersion models, and more sensitive satellite sensors that are capable of better detecting volcanic ash, gases and aerosols. Along with these improved capabilities come increased challenges in rapidly assimilating the available data sources, which come from a variety of data providers. In this presentation, examples from the recent large eruptions of Okmok, Kasatochi, and Sarychev Peak volcanoes will be used to demonstrate the challenges faced by hazard response agencies. These eruptions produced volcanic clouds that were dispersed over large regions of the Northern Hemisphere and were observed by pilots and detected by various satellite sensors for several weeks. The disruption to aviation caused by these eruptions further emphasizes the need to improve the real-time characterization of volcanic clouds (altitude, composition, particle size, and concentration) and to better understand the impacts of volcanic ash, gases and aerosols on aircraft, flight crews, and passengers.

16 CFR 1500.127 - Substances with multiple hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... the common or usual name (or the chemical name if there is no common or usual name) for each hazardous... combined with parallel information concerning any additional hazards presented by the article if the...

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

2015-01-01

Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0.17 when only one hazard is considered and a score of 0.37 when multiple hazards are considered simultaneously. The LHIs with the most predictive skill were ‘Inundation depth’ and ‘Wave attack’. The Bayesian Network approach has several advantages over the market-standard stage-damage functions: the predictive capacity of multiple indicators can be combined; probabilistic predictions can be obtained, which include uncertainty; and quantitative as well as descriptive information can be used simultaneously.

Brief Alcohol Interventions and Multiple Risk Factors in Primary Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Funderburk, Jennifer S.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Sugarman, Dawn E.

2007-01-01

Early identification and intervention of harmful/hazardous drinking in primary care are U.S. healthcare priorities. Traditionally, research has focused on designing interventions for patients in primary care who report hazardous/harmful alcohol use, even though it is likely for a patient to be at risk for multiple problems. This article has three…

ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

2016-04-01

Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL) and Probable Maximum Losses (PML) in GAR 2013 and GAR 2015. In parallel similar methodologies were developed to highlitght the role of ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). New developments may include slow hazards (such as e.g. soil degradation and droughts), natech hazards (by intersecting with georeferenced critical infrastructures) The various global hazard, exposure and risk models can be visualized and download through the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform.

An agriculture and health inter-sectorial research process to reduce hazardous pesticide health impacts among smallholder farmers in the Andes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The use of highly hazardous pesticides by smallholder farmers constitutes a classic trans-sectoral ‘wicked problem’. We share our program of research in potato and vegetable farming communities in the Andean highlands, working with partners from multiple sectors to confront this problem over several projects. Methods We engaged in iterative cycles of mixed methods research around particular questions, actions relevant to stakeholders, new proposal formulation and implementation followed by evaluation of impacts. Capacity building occurred among farmers, technical personnel, and students from multiple disciplines. Involvement of research users occurred throughout: women and men farmers, non-governmental development organizations, Ministries of Health and Agriculture, and, in Ecuador, the National Council on Social Participation. Results Pesticide poisonings were more widespread than existing passive surveillance systems would suggest. More diversified, moderately developed agricultural systems had lower pesticide use and better child nutrition. Greater understanding among women of crop management options and more equal household gender relations were associated with reduced farm pesticide use and household pesticide exposure. Involvement in more organic agriculture was associated with greater household food security and food sovereignty. Markets for safer produce supported efforts by smallholder farmers to reduce hazardous pesticide use. Participatory interventions included: promoting greater access to alternative methods and inputs in a store co-sponsored by the municipality; producing less harmful inputs such as compost by women farmers; strengthening farmer organizations around healthier and more sustainable agriculture; marketing safer produce among social sectors; empowering farmers to act as social monitors; and using social monitoring results to inform decision makers. Uptake by policy makers has included: the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health rolling out pesticide poisoning surveillance modeled on our system; the Ecuadorian Association of Municipalities holding a national virtual forum on healthier agriculture; and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Agriculture promulgating restrictions on highly hazardous pesticides in June 2010. Conclusion Work with multiple actors is needed to shift agriculture towards greater sustainability and human health, particularly for vulnerable smallholders. PMID:22165981

Multi -risk assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar; Amiranashvili, Avtandil; Tsereteli, Emili; Elizbarashvili, Elizbar; Saluqvadze, Manana; Dolodze, Jemal

2013-04-01

Work presented here was initiated by national GNSF project " Reducing natural disasters multiple risk: a positive factor for Georgia development " and two international projects: NATO SFP 983038 "Seismic hazard and Rusk assessment for Southern Caucasus-eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and EMME " Earthquake Model for Middle east Region". Methodology for estimation of "general" vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk to natural hazards (namely, earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, flash floods, mudflows, drought, hurricanes, frost, hail) where developed for Georgia. The electronic detailed databases of natural disasters were created. These databases contain the parameters of hazardous phenomena that caused natural disasters. The magnitude and intensity scale of the mentioned disasters are reviewed and the new magnitude and intensity scales are suggested for disasters for which the corresponding formalization is not yet performed. The associated economic losses were evaluated and presented in monetary terms for these hazards. Based on the hazard inventory, an approach was developed that allowed for the calculation of an overall vulnerability value for each individual hazard type, using the Gross Domestic Product per unit area (applied to population) as the indicator for elements at risk exposed. The correlation between estimated economic losses, physical exposure and the magnitude for each of the six types of hazards has been investigated in detail by using multiple linear regression analysis. Economic losses for all past events and historical vulnerability were estimated. Finally, the spatial distribution of general vulnerability was assessed, and the expected maximum economic loss was calculated as well as a multi-risk map was set-up.

Leveraging Social Media Data to Understand Disaster Resilience: A Case Study of Hurricane Isaac

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, L.; Lam, N.; Cai, H.

2017-12-01

Coastal communities are facing multiple threats from natural hazards, such as hurricanes, flooding, and storm surge, and show uneven response and recovery behaviors. To build a sustainable coast, it is critical to understand how coastal hazards affect humans and how to enhance disaster resilience. However, understanding community resilience remains challenging, due to the lack of real-time data describing community's response and recovery behaviors during disasters. Public discussion through social media platforms provides an opportunity to understand these behaviors by categorizing real-time social media data into three main phases of emergency management - preparedness, response, and recovery. This study analyzes the spatial-temporal patterns of Twitter use and content during Hurricane Isaac, which struck coastal Louisiana on August 29, 2012. The study area includes counties affected by Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana and Mississippi. The objectives are three-fold. First, we will compute a set of Twitter indices to quantify the Twitter activities during Hurricane Issac and the results will be compared with those of Hurricane Sandy to gain a better understanding of human response in extreme events. Second, county-level disaster resilience in the affected region will be computed and evaluated using the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model. Third, we will examine the relationship between the geographical and social disparities in Twitter use and the disparities in disaster resilience and evaluate the role of Twitter use in disaster resilience. Knowledge gained from this study could provide valuable insights into strategies for utilizing social media data to increase resilience to disasters.

California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Evaluation of a Risk Awareness Perception Training Program on Novice Teen Driver Behavior at Left-Turn Intersections.

PubMed

McDonald, Catherine C; Kandadai, Venk; Loeb, Helen; Seacrist, Thomas; Lee, Yi-Ching; Bonfiglio, Dana; Fisher, Donald L; Winston, Flaura K

Collisions at left turn intersections are among the most prevalent types of teen driver serious crashes, with inadequate surveillance as a key factor. Risk awareness perception training (RAPT) has shown effectiveness in improving hazard anticipation for latent hazards. The goal of this study was to determine if RAPT version 3 (RAPT-3) improved intersection turning behaviors among novice teen drivers when the hazards were not latent and frequent glancing to multiple locations at the intersection was needed. Teens aged 16-18 with ≤180 days of licensure were randomly assigned to: 1) an intervention group (n=18) that received RAPT-3 (Trained); or 2) a control group (n=19) that received no training (Untrained). Both groups completed RAPT-3 Baseline Assessment and the Trained group completed RAPT-3 Training and RAPT-3 Post Assessment. Training effects were evaluated on a driving simulator. Simulator ( gap selection errors and collisions ) and eye tracker ( traffic check errors) metrics from six left-turn stop sign controlled intersections in the Simulated Driving Assessment (SDA) were analyzed. The Trained group scored significantly higher in RAPT-3 Post Assessment than RAPT-3 Baseline Assessment (p< 0.0001). There were no significant differences in either traffic check and gap selection errors or collisions among Trained and Untrained teens in the SDA. Though Trained teens learned about hazard anticipation related to latent hazards, learning did not translate to performance differences in left-turn stop sign controlled intersections where the hazards were not latent. Our findings point to further research to better understand the challenges teens have with left turn intersections.

Natural Hazards Education in the Himalayan Region of Ladakh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

2015-04-01

Here we present a review of a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. This project: (i) delivered a geoscience education programme, in conjunction with a range of local and international partners, to multiple schools in the region; (ii) utilised interactive demonstrations to teach students about the key physical dynamics of landslides and earthquakes; and (iii) integrated aspects of physical and social science within the teaching, to give students a holistic understanding of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. In total three programmes were delivered, to a range of different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds. This presentation will particularly highlight (i) the importance of delivering material in a culturally appropriate way, (ii) challenges regarding the sustainability of delivering high quality geoscience education projects, and (iii) ways in which geoscience education outreach can be mainstreamed into overseas research visits.

Analyzing the occurrence of debris flows and floods in a small watershed two years after a wildfire, San Gabriel Mountains, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. J.; Barth, N. C.; Gray, A. B.

2016-12-01

The frontal range of the San Gabriel Mountains immediately abuts the Los Angeles basin for approximately 110 km. Along this wildland-urban interface and throughout the mountain range multiple overlapping natural hazards can occur, the most frequent of which are postfire debris flows and floods triggered by intense rainfall events. Recent studies in southern California of burned basins with steep slopes show that the timing of postfire debris flows and floods during the first winter following a wildfire is closely tied to high-intensity rainfall events. Here, we explore short-term (seasonal/annual) controls on sediment production and flux after the 2014 Colby Fire, which burned 8 km2 of the southern San Gabriel front directly above the city of Glendora, CA. To understand how sediment flux changes as a basin recovers following a wildfire, we installed and monitored a dense network of rain gages and pressure transducers within the Englewild watershed ( 1 km2) during the second winter following the Colby Fire. Site visits were made following each rainstorm to download pressure transducer and rainfall data and analyze the geomorphic response within the channel network. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (5-min) previously identified as postfire debris flow triggers were exceeded multiple times throughout the winter. However, we only one documented one debris flow. Understanding changes in the rainfall intensity thresholds relative to debris flow timing and occurrence with system rebound after wildfire is important to help reduce risk and increase hazard resilience.

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

2016-04-01

Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically-based simulations. The following nodes represents for each rupture scenario different rupture forecast models (i.e; characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter) and for a given rupture forecast, two probability models commonly used in seismic hazard assessment: poissonian or time-dependent. The final node represents an exhaustive set of ground motion prediction equations chosen in order to be compatible with the region. Finally, the expected probability of exceeding a given ground motion level is computed at each sites. Results will be discussed for a few specific localities of the West Corinth Gulf.

Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.

2002-01-01

Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.

Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes seems to be changing with time or is expected to do so due to human activity? A starting approach might be to assess what we know, what we don't know, what we think, and what can be done that might improve this situation. We should draw on what is known in other areas of risk assessment including social science, meteorology, engineering, and economics.

Statins Are Associated With Reduced Mortality in Multiple Myeloma

PubMed Central

Keller, Jesse; Gage, Brian F.; Luo, Suhong; Wang, Tzu-Fei; Moskowitz, Gerald; Gumbel, Jason; Blue, Brandon; O’Brian, Katiuscia; Carson, Kenneth R.

2016-01-01

Purpose The 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) have activity in one of the pathways influenced by nitrogen-containing bisphosphonates, which are associated with improved survival in multiple myeloma (MM). To understand the benefit of statins in MM, we evaluated the association between statin use and mortality in a large cohort of patients with MM. Patients and Methods From the Veterans Administration Central Cancer Registry, we identified patients diagnosed with MM between 1999 and 2013. We defined statin use as the presence of any prescription for a statin within 3 months before or any time after MM diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of statin use with mortality, while controlling for known MM prognostic factors. Results We identified a cohort of 4,957 patients, of whom 2,294 received statin therapy. Statin use was associated with a 21% decrease in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.86; P < .001) as well as a 24% decrease in MM-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.86; P < .001). This association remained significant across all sensitivity analyses. In addition to reductions in mortality, statin use was associated with a 31% decreased risk of developing a skeletal-related event. Conclusion In this cohort study of US veterans with MM, statin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of both all-cause and MM-specific mortality. Our findings suggest a potential role for statin therapy in patients with MM. The putative benefit of statin therapy in MM should be corroborated in prospective studies. PMID:27646948

Compiler-Assisted Multiple Instruction Rollback Recovery Using a Read Buffer. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alewine, Neal Jon

1993-01-01

Multiple instruction rollback (MIR) is a technique to provide rapid recovery from transient processor failures and was implemented in hardware by researchers and slow in mainframe computers. Hardware-based MIR designs eliminate rollback data hazards by providing data redundancy implemented in hardware. Compiler-based MIR designs were also developed which remove rollback data hazards directly with data flow manipulations, thus eliminating the need for most data redundancy hardware. Compiler-assisted techniques to achieve multiple instruction rollback recovery are addressed. It is observed that data some hazards resulting from instruction rollback can be resolved more efficiently by providing hardware redundancy while others are resolved more efficiently with compiler transformations. A compiler-assisted multiple instruction rollback scheme is developed which combines hardware-implemented data redundancy with compiler-driven hazard removal transformations. Experimental performance evaluations were conducted which indicate improved efficiency over previous hardware-based and compiler-based schemes. Various enhancements to the compiler transformations and to the data redundancy hardware developed for the compiler-assisted MIR scheme are described and evaluated. The final topic deals with the application of compiler-assisted MIR techniques to aid in exception repair and branch repair in a speculative execution architecture.

Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

PubMed

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-05-01

Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

Compiler-assisted multiple instruction rollback recovery using a read buffer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alewine, Neal J.; Chen, Shyh-Kwei; Fuchs, W. Kent; Hwu, Wen-Mei W.

1995-01-01

Multiple instruction rollback (MIR) is a technique that has been implemented in mainframe computers to provide rapid recovery from transient processor failures. Hardware-based MIR designs eliminate rollback data hazards by providing data redundancy implemented in hardware. Compiler-based MIR designs have also been developed which remove rollback data hazards directly with data-flow transformations. This paper describes compiler-assisted techniques to achieve multiple instruction rollback recovery. We observe that some data hazards resulting from instruction rollback can be resolved efficiently by providing an operand read buffer while others are resolved more efficiently with compiler transformations. The compiler-assisted scheme presented consists of hardware that is less complex than shadow files, history files, history buffers, or delayed write buffers, while experimental evaluation indicates performance improvement over compiler-based schemes.

Applications of a Forward-Looking Interferometer for the On-board Detection of Aviation Weather Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Leanne; Gimmestad, Gary; Smith, William; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry B.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Tsoucalas, George

2008-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is a new instrument concept for obtaining measurements of potential weather hazards to alert flight crews. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared (IR) Fourier Transform Spectrometry (FTS) technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing, and which have also been applied to the detection of aerosols and gases for other purposes. It is being evaluated for multiple hazards including clear air turbulence (CAT), volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing, during all phases of flight. Previous sensitivity and characterization studies addressed the phenomenology that supports detection and mitigation by the FLI. Techniques for determining the range, and hence warning time, were demonstrated for several of the hazards, and a table of research instrument parameters was developed for investigating all of the hazards discussed above. This work supports the feasibility of detecting multiple hazards with an FLI multi-hazard airborne sensor, and for producing enhanced IR images in reduced visibility conditions; however, further research must be performed to develop a means to estimate the intensities of the hazards posed to an aircraft and to develop robust algorithms to relate sensor measurables to hazard levels. In addition, validation tests need to be performed with a prototype system.

A life cycle hazard assessment (LCHA) framework to address fire hazards at the wildland-urban interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric; Pierce, Jen; Wuerzer, Thomas; Glenn, Nancy; Dialani, Jijay; Gibble, Katie; Frazier, Tim; Strand, Eva

2015-04-01

The stages of planning for and responding to natural hazards, such as wildfires and related events, are often conducted as discrete (and often not connected) efforts. Disaster response often takes precedence, exhausting agency and stakeholder resources, and the planning stages are conducted by different agencies or entities with different and often competing agendas and jurisdictions. The result is that evaluation after a disaster can be minimal or even non-existent as resources are expended and interest moves on to the next event. Natural disasters and hazards, however, have a tendency to cascade and multiply: wildfires impact the vulnerability of hillslopes, for example, which may result in landslides, flooding and debris flows long after the initial event has occurred. Connecting decisions across multiple events and time scales is ignored, yet these connections could lead to better policy making at all stages of disaster risk reduction. Considering this situation, we present an adapted life cycle analysis (LCA) approach to examine fire-related hazards at the Wildland-Urban Interface in the American West. The LCHA focuses on the temporal integration of : 1) the 'pre-fire' set of physical conditions (e.g. fuel loads) and human conditions (e.g. hazard awareness), 2) the 'fire event', focusing on computational analysis of the communication patterns and responsibility for response to the event, and 3) the 'post-event' analysis of the landscape susceptibility to fire-related debris flows. The approach of the LCHA follows other models used by governmental agencies to prepare for disasters through 1) preparation and prevention, 2) response and 3) recovery. As an overlay are the diverse agencies and policies associated with these stages and their respective resource and management decisions over time. LCAs have evolved from a business-centric consideration of the environmental impact of a specific product over the products life. This approach takes several phases to end up with an assessment of the impact of the product on the environment over time and is being considered beyond the business and logistics communities in such areas as biodiversity and ecosystem impacts. From our perspective, we consider wildfire as the "product" and want to understand how it impacts the environment (spatially, temporally, across the bio-physical and social domains). Through development of this LCHA we adapt the LCA approach with a focus on the inputs (from fire and pre-fire efforts) outputs (from post fire conditions) and how they evolve and are responded to by the responsible agencies and stakeholders responsible. A Life Cycle Hazard Assessment (LCHA) approach extends and integrates the understanding of hazards over much longer periods of time than previously considered. The LCHA also provides an integrated platform for the necessary interdisciplinary approach to understanding decision and environmental change across the life cycle of the fire event. This presentation will discuss our theoretical and empirical framework for developing a longitudinal LCHA and contribute to the overall goals of the NH7.1 session.

Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.

2010-01-01

Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental historymore » of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.« less

Assessment and prediction of debris-flow hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; ,

1993-01-01

Study of debris-flow geomorphology and initiation mechanism has led to better understanding of debris-flow processes. This paper reviews how this understanding is used in current techniques for assessment and prediction of debris-flow hazards.

An evaluation of HACCP implementation status in UK small and medium enterprises in food manufacturing.

PubMed

Fielding, L M; Ellis, L; Beveridge, C; Peters, A C

2005-04-01

To reduce foodborne illnesses, hazard and risk-based quality management systems are essential. Small and medium sized companies (SMEs) tend to have a poor understanding of such systems and limited adoption of the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point system (HACCP). The requirement for full HACCP implementation by 2006 will place an even greater burden on these businesses. The aim of this project is to assess the current levels of understanding of hazards and risks in SMEs in the manufacturing sector. A questionnaire survey was made of 850 SMEs, including microbusinesses. This determined the industry sector and processes carried out, whether the company operated hazard-based quality management and the knowledge of the technical manager regarding the associated hazards and risks. Follow-up visits to the manufacturing plant observed the processes and the operatives to determine their level of understanding. A benchmarking audit was carried out and each company was rated. The results show that the majority of respondents stated that they operated hazard analysis-based quality management. The ability of the respondents to correctly define a hazard or risk or identify different types of hazard was, however, poor. There was no correlation between business type and audit score. The microbusinesses did, however, perform significantly less well than the larger SMEs.

Development of Multiple Primary Cancers in Lung Cancer Patients: Appalachian Versus Non-Appalachian Populations of Kentucky.

PubMed

Pravosud, Vira; Huang, Bin; Tucker, Thomas; Vanderford, Nathan L

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with lung cancer in Appalachian Kentucky are more likely to develop multiple primary cancers than patients in non-Appalachian Kentucky. Additional analyses were conducted to identify other factors that may be associated with an increased hazard of developing multiple primary cancers in patients with lung cancer. The data for this retrospective, population-based cohort study of 26,456 primary lung cancer patients were drawn from the Kentucky Cancer Registry. For inclusion in the study, patients must have been diagnosed between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013 and they must either have continually resided in Appalachian Kentucky or continually resided in non-Appalachian Kentucky. Cases were excluded if the patient was diagnosed as having additional primary cancers within 3 months of the initial diagnosis of primary lung cancer. The medical records for each case were examined to determine whether the patient was subsequently diagnosed as having additional primary cancers. The Cox proportional hazards model was then used to assess whether there was an association between the region in which the patients live and the likelihood of developing multiple primary cancers. Time to event was considered as the time from diagnosis to either death or development of a second primary cancer. The results presented here indicate that the risk of developing multiple primary cancers is the same for patients with lung cancer throughout Kentucky (hazard ratio [HR] 1.002, P = 0.9713). We found no evidence for a greater hazard in patients from Appalachia; however, additional analyses revealed several high-risk groups. Male patients and older patients had a significantly greater hazard of developing multiple primary cancers (HR 1.169, P = 0.012 and 1.015, P = 0.0001, respectively). In addition, patients who underwent surgery and those who were diagnosed initially as having an earlier stage of cancer also were more likely to develop multiple primary cancers (HR 1.446, P = 0.0003 and 0.684, P = 0.0015, respectively). This is a negative study. Patients with primary lung cancer living in Appalachian Kentucky are not at a greater risk of developing multiple primary cancers than those residing in non-Appalachian Kentucky. High-risk groups identified in this study are male patients and older patients. The increased hazard seen in patients who underwent surgery or those who were diagnosed as having earlier stages of lung cancer are likely an artifact of these patients living longer and, therefore, having more time to develop additional primary cancers.

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Probability analysis of multiple-tank-car release incidents in railway hazardous materials transportation.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, Mohd Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2014-07-15

Railroads play a key role in the transportation of hazardous materials in North America. Rail transport differs from highway transport in several aspects, an important one being that rail transport involves trains in which many railcars carrying hazardous materials travel together. By contrast to truck accidents, it is possible that a train accident may involve multiple hazardous materials cars derailing and releasing contents with consequently greater potential impact on human health, property and the environment. In this paper, a probabilistic model is developed to estimate the probability distribution of the number of tank cars releasing contents in a train derailment. Principal operational characteristics considered include train length, derailment speed, accident cause, position of the first car derailed, number and placement of tank cars in a train and tank car safety design. The effect of train speed, tank car safety design and tank car positions in a train were evaluated regarding the number of cars that release their contents in a derailment. This research provides insights regarding the circumstances affecting multiple-tank-car release incidents and potential strategies to reduce their occurrences. The model can be incorporated into a larger risk management framework to enable better local, regional and national safety management of hazardous materials transportation by rail. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazardous Waste Resources for Tribal Nations in the Midwest

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hazardous waste on tribal lands presents a unique set of opportunities and obstacles. This website is intended to be a host for resources that can help Tribal Nations understand the dynamics of hazardous waste and provide guidance on building tribal hazard

Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

2013-05-01

Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

Factors influencing the food choices and eating habits of restaurant chefs in northern New Jersey: a pilot study.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Meena; Feldman, Charles

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to understand the factors influencing the food habits of restaurant chefs in northern New Jersey. Data was collected from participants (N = 12) using dietary recalls, and semi-structured interviews based on the socio-ecological model. Dietary recall analysis revealed multiple nutritional intake hazards including skipping meals, and substitution of foods rich in fats and sugar for fruits and vegetables, and increased consumption of alcohol. Qualitative data analysis revealed that their food habits were influenced by a repertoire of individual, organizational, and interpersonal factors. The relevance of these findings to nutrition intervention programs for this population is discussed.

Hazardous Waste Generator Regulations: A User-Friendly Reference Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

User-friendly reference to assist EPA and state staff, industrial facilities generating and managing hazardous wastes as well as the general public, in locating and understanding RCRA hazardous waste generator regulations.

29 CFR 1926.761 - Training.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... following activities. (1) Multiple lift rigging procedure. The employer shall ensure that each employee who performs multiple lift rigging has been provided training in the following areas: (i) The nature of the hazards associated with multiple lifts; and (ii) The proper procedures and equipment to perform multiple...

29 CFR 1926.761 - Training.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... following activities. (1) Multiple lift rigging procedure. The employer shall ensure that each employee who performs multiple lift rigging has been provided training in the following areas: (i) The nature of the hazards associated with multiple lifts; and (ii) The proper procedures and equipment to perform multiple...

Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2011-01-01

Natural hazards threaten the safety and economic wellbeing of communities. These hazards include sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes, and slowly emerging, chronic hazards, such as those associated with climate change. To help public officials, emergency and other managers, the business community, and at-risk individuals reduce the risks posed by such hazards, the USGS Western Geographic Science Center is developing new ways to assess and communicate societal risk and resilience to catastrophic and chronic natural hazards.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Physical applications of GPS geodesy: a review.

PubMed

Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

2016-10-01

Geodesy, the oldest science, has become an important discipline in the geosciences, in large part by enhancing Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities over the last 35 years well beyond the satellite constellation's original design. The ability of GPS geodesy to estimate 3D positions with millimeter-level precision with respect to a global terrestrial reference frame has contributed to significant advances in geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science, hydrology, and natural hazard science. Monitoring the changes in the positions or trajectories of GPS instruments on the Earth's land and water surfaces, in the atmosphere, or in space, is important for both theory and applications, from an improved understanding of tectonic and magmatic processes to developing systems for mitigating the impact of natural hazards on society and the environment. Besides accurate positioning, all disturbances in the propagation of the transmitted GPS radio signals from satellite to receiver are mined for information, from troposphere and ionosphere delays for weather, climate, and natural hazard applications, to disturbances in the signals due to multipath reflections from the solid ground, water, and ice for environmental applications. We review the relevant concepts of geodetic theory, data analysis, and physical modeling for a myriad of processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the extensive global infrastructure that has been built to support GPS geodesy consisting of thousands of continuously operating stations. We also discuss the integration of heterogeneous and complementary data sets from geodesy, seismology, and geology, focusing on crustal deformation applications and early warning systems for natural hazards.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kienhuis, Anne S., E-mail: anne.kienhuis@rivm.nl; RIKILT, Institute of Food Safety, Wageningen UR, PO Box 230, 6700 AE, Wageningen; Netherlands Toxicogenomics Centre

Hepatic systems toxicology is the integrative analysis of toxicogenomic technologies, e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, in combination with traditional toxicology measures to improve the understanding of mechanisms of hepatotoxic action. Hepatic toxicology studies that have employed toxicogenomic technologies to date have already provided a proof of principle for the value of hepatic systems toxicology in hazard identification. In the present review, acetaminophen is used as a model compound to discuss the application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for its potential role in the risk assessment process, to progress from hazard identification towards hazard characterization. The toxicogenomics-based parallelogram is usedmore » to identify current achievements and limitations of acetaminophen toxicogenomic in vivo and in vitro studies for in vitro-to-in vivo and interspecies comparisons, with the ultimate aim to extrapolate animal studies to humans in vivo. This article provides a model for comparison of more species and more in vitro models enhancing the robustness of common toxicogenomic responses and their relevance to human risk assessment. To progress to quantitative dose-response analysis needed for hazard characterization, in hepatic systems toxicology studies, generation of toxicogenomic data of multiple doses/concentrations and time points is required. Newly developed bioinformatics tools for quantitative analysis of toxicogenomic data can aid in the elucidation of dose-responsive effects. The challenge herein is to assess which toxicogenomic responses are relevant for induction of the apical effect and whether perturbations are sufficient for the induction of downstream events, eventually causing toxicity.« less

Hazardous Waste and You. A Teacher's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ontario Waste Management Corp., Toronto.

This teaching guide provides an interactive introduction to hazardous waste, with particular emphasis on personal responsibility and action. Nine lessons engage advanced grade 10 and grade 11-12 science students in group discussions and actions that help them develop awareness of hazardous waste, understanding of the hazardous waste situation in…

Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A SETAC Pellston Workshop™ ?‘Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)’ was held from 31st January to 5th February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary aim of the workshop was to provide objective advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers, whether in industry, government or academia. The aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an environmental hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on six endocrine active substances (EAS not necessarily proven EDS), that are representative of a range of endocrine system perturbations and considered to be data-rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organisation for one or more ecologically-relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17á-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17â-trenbolone, tributyltin and vinclozolin. The six case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations, but provided the foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the environmental hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve

Environmental Hazard of Selenium in the Animas La Plata Wate Development Project

Treesearch

A. Dennis Lemly

1997-01-01

A hazard assessment of selenium was conducted for the Animas La Plata Project, a multiple-use water development proposed for Colorado and New Mexico by the United States Bureau of Reclamation. A published protocol for aquatic hazard assessment of selenium was applied to environmental monitoring data to assess current threats to biota in the water supply rivers (Animas...

Do self-reported concussions have cumulative or enduring effects on drivers' anticipation of traffic hazards?

PubMed

Preece, Megan H W; Horswill, Mark S; Ownsworth, Tamara

2016-01-01

To investigate the cumulative effect of multiple self-reported concussions and the enduring effect of concussion on drivers' hazard perception ability. It was hypothesized: (1) that individuals reporting multiple previous concussions would be slower to anticipate traffic hazards than individuals reporting either one previous concussion or none; and (2) that individuals reporting a concussion within the past 3 months would be slower to anticipate traffic hazards than individuals reporting either an earlier concussion or no prior concussion. Two hundred and eighty-two predominantly young drivers (nconcussed = 68, Mage = 21.57 years, SDage = 6.99 years, 66% female) completed a validated hazard perception test (HPT) and measures of emotional, cognitive, health and driving status. A one-way analysis of variance showed that there was no significant effect of concussion number on HPT response times. Similarly, pairwise comparisons showed no significant differences between the HPT response times of individuals reporting a concussion within the previous 3 months, individuals reporting an earlier concussion and the never concussed group. The findings suggest that previous concussions do not adversely affect young drivers' ability to anticipate traffic hazards; however, due to reliance on self-reports of concussion history, further prospective longitudinal research is needed.

Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Nathan; Soulard, Christopher

2009-12-01

Although much has been done to understand, quantify, and delineate volcanic hazards, there are fewer efforts to assess societal vulnerability to these hazards, particularly demographic differences in exposed populations or spatial variations in exposure to regional hazards. To better understand population diversity in volcanic hazard zones, we assess the number and types of people in a single type of hazard zone (lahars) for 27 communities downstream of Mount Rainier, Washington (USA). Using various socioeconomic and hazard datasets, we estimate that there are more than 78 000 residents, 59 000 employees, several dependent-population facilities (e.g., child-day-care centers, nursing homes) and numerous public venues (e.g., churches, hotels, museums) in a Mount Rainier lahar-hazard zone. We find that communities vary in the primary category of individuals in lahar-prone areas—exposed populations are dominated by residents in some communities (e.g., Auburn), employees in others (e.g., Tacoma), and tourists likely outnumber both of these groups in yet other areas (e.g., unincorporated Lewis County). Population exposure to potential lahar inundation varies considerably—some communities (e.g., Auburn) have large numbers of people but low percentages of them in hazard zones, whereas others (e.g., Orting) have fewer people but they comprise the majority of a community. A composite lahar-exposure index is developed to help emergency managers understand spatial variations in community exposure to lahars and results suggest that Puyallup has the highest combination of high numbers and percentages of people and assets in lahar-prone areas. Risk education and preparedness needs will vary based on who is threatened by future lahars, such as residents, employees, tourists at a public venue, or special-needs populations at a dependent-care facility. Emergency managers must first understand the people whom they are trying to prepare before they can expect these people to take protective measures after recognizing natural cues or receiving an official lahar warning.

Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.; Soulard, C.

2009-01-01

Although much has been done to understand, quantify, and delineate volcanic hazards, there are fewer efforts to assess societal vulnerability to these hazards, particularly demographic differences in exposed populations or spatial variations in exposure to regional hazards. To better understand population diversity in volcanic hazard zones, we assess the number and types of people in a single type of hazard zone (lahars) for 27 communities downstream of Mount Rainier, Washington (USA). Using various socioeconomic and hazard datasets, we estimate that there are more than 78 000 residents, 59 000 employees, several dependent-population facilities (e.g., child-day-care centers, nursing homes) and numerous public venues (e.g., churches, hotels, museums) in a Mount Rainier lahar-hazard zone. We find that communities vary in the primary category of individuals in lahar-prone areas-exposed populations are dominated by residents in some communities (e.g., Auburn), employees in others (e.g., Tacoma), and tourists likely outnumber both of these groups in yet other areas (e.g., unincorporated Lewis County). Population exposure to potential lahar inundation varies considerably-some communities (e.g., Auburn) have large numbers of people but low percentages of them in hazard zones, whereas others (e.g., Orting) have fewer people but they comprise the majority of a community. A composite lahar-exposure index is developed to help emergency managers understand spatial variations in community exposure to lahars and results suggest that Puyallup has the highest combination of high numbers and percentages of people and assets in lahar-prone areas. Risk education and preparedness needs will vary based on who is threatened by future lahars, such as residents, employees, tourists at a public venue, or special-needs populations at a dependent-care facility. Emergency managers must first understand the people whom they are trying to prepare before they can expect these people to take protective measures after recognizing natural cues or receiving an official lahar warning.

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Armenia and its Surrounding Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E.; Shen-Tu, B.; Mahdyiar, M.; Karakhanyan, A.; Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Gee, R. C.

2017-12-01

The Republic of Armenia is located within the central part of a large, 800 km wide, intracontinental collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Active deformation occurs along numerous structures in the form of faulting, folding, and volcanism distributed throughout the entire zone from the Bitlis-Zargos suture belt to the Greater Caucasus Mountains and between the relatively rigid Back Sea and Caspian Sea blocks without any single structure that can be claimed as predominant. In recent years, significant work has been done on mapping active faults, compiling and reviewing historic and paleoseismological studies in the region, especially in Armenia; these recent research contributions have greatly improved our understanding of the seismogenic sources and their characteristics. In this study we performed a seismic hazard analysis for Armenia and its surrounding areas using the latest detailed geological and paleoseismological information on active faults, strain rates estimated from kinematic modeling of GPS data and all available historic earthquake data. The seismic source model uses a combination of characteristic earthquake and gridded seismicity models to take advantage of the detailed knowledge of the known faults while acknowledging the distributed deformation and regional tectonic environment of the collision zone. In addition, the fault model considers earthquake ruptures that include single and multi-segment or fault rupture scenarios with earthquakes that can rupture any part of a multiple segment fault zone. The ground motion model uses a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) selected from a pool of GMPEs based on the assessment of each GMPE against the available strong motion data in the region. The hazard is computed in the GEM's OpenQuake engine. We will present final hazard results and discuss the uncertainties associated with various input data and their impact on the hazard at various locations.

Global scanning assessment of calcium channel blockers in the environment: Review and analysis of occurrence, ecotoxicology and hazards in aquatic systems.

PubMed

Saari, Gavin N; Scott, W Casan; Brooks, Bryan W

2017-12-01

As an urban water cycle is increasingly realized, aquatic systems are influenced by sewage and wastewater effluent discharges of variable quality. Such urbanization results in exposures of non-target aquatic organisms to medicines and other contaminants. In the present study, we performed a unique global hazard assessment of calcium channel blockers (CCB) in multiple environmental matrices. Effluent and freshwater observations were primarily from North America (62% and 76%, respectively) and Europe (21% and 10%, respectively) with limited-to-no information from rapidly urbanizing regions of developing countries in Asia-Pacific, South America, and Africa. Only 9% and 18% of occurrence data were from influent sewage and marine systems, though developing countries routinely discharge poorly treated wastewater to heavily populated coastal regions. Probabilistic environmental exposure distribution (EED) 5th and 95th percentiles for all CCBs were 1.5 and 309.1 ng/L in influent, 5.0 and 448.7 ng/L for effluent, 1.3 and 202.3 ng/L in freshwater, and 0.17 and 12.9 ng/L in saltwater, respectively. Unfortunately, global hazards and risks of CCBs to non-target organisms remain poorly understood, particularly for sublethal exposures. Thus, therapeutic hazard values (THV) were calculated and employed during probabilistic hazard assessments with EEDs when sufficient data was available. Amlodipine and verapamil in effluents and freshwater systems exceeded THVs 28% of the time, highlighting the need to understand ecological consequences of these CCBs. This global scanning approach demonstrated the utility of global assessments to identify specific CCBs, chemical mixtures with common mechanisms of action, and geographic locations for which environmental assessment efforts appear warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insights into the Fault Geometry and Rupture History of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, M.; Ji, C.

2017-12-01

The November 14th 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake occurred along the east coast of the northern part of the South Island. The local tectonic setting is complicated. The central South Island is dominated by oblique continental convergence, whereas the southern part of this island experiences eastward subduction of the Australian plate. Available information (e.g., Hamling et al., 2017; Bradley et al., 2017) indicate that this earthquake involved multiple fault segments of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) as the rupture propagated northwards for more than 150 km. Additional slip might also occur on the subduction interface of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, beneath the MFS. However, the exact number of involved fault segments as well as the temporal co-seismic rupture sequence has not been fully determined with geodetic and geological observations. Knowledge of the kinematics of complex fault interactions has important implications for our understanding of global seismic hazards, particularly to relatively unmodeled multisegment ruptures. Understanding the Kaikoura earthquake will provide insight into how one incorporates multi-fault ruptures in seismic-hazard models. We propose to apply a multiple double-couple inversion to determine the fault geometry and spatiotemporal rupture history using teleseismic and strong motion waveforms, before constraining the detailed slip history using both seismic and geodetic data. The Kaikoura earthquake will be approximated as the summation of multiple subevents—each represented as a double-couple point source, characterized by i) fault geometry (strike, dip and rake), ii) seismic moment, iii) centroid time, iv) half-duration and v) location (latitude, longitude and depth), a total of nine variables. We progressively increase the number of point sources until the additional source cannot produce significant improvement to the observations. Our preliminary results using only teleseismic data indicate that, broadly speaking, the sequence of fault planes dips towards the northwest and the motion of slip is largely to the northeast. Sequence and timing of the rupturing faults is still to be determined.

GENETIC ACTIVITY PROFILES AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A methodology has been developed to display and evaluate multiple test quantitative information on genetic toxicants for purposes of hazard/risk assessment. ose information is collected from the open literature: either the lowest effective dose (LED) or the highest ineffective do...

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Hazardous Drinking and Military Community Functioning: Identifying Mediating Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foran, Heather M.; Heyman, Richard E.; Slep, Amy M. Smith

2011-01-01

Objective: Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may…

Development of an Online Hazards Atlas to Improve Disaster Awareness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Battersby, Sarah E.; Mitchell, Jerry T.; Cutter, Susan L.

2011-01-01

Understanding the causes, effects and geographic patterns of local hazards is important for helping individuals make educated decisions about how to respond to their threat. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to find comprehensive sources of information about local hazards. In this paper, we discuss the development of an online hazards atlas for…

Fact Sheet About the Hazardous Waste Generator Improvements Final Rule

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

October 28, 2016, EPA finalized a rule that revises the hazardous waste generator regulations by making them easier to understand and providing greater flexibility in how hazardous waste is managed to better fit today's business operations.

A New Master of Natural Hazards Program at The Australian National University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozgay, S.; Zoleta-Nantes, D.

2009-12-01

The new Master of Natural Hazards program at The Australian National University provides a multi-disciplinary approach to the study and monitoring of geophysical processes that can lead to the recognition of hazards and a consequent reduction of their impacts through emergency measures, disaster plans, and relief and rehabilitation. The program provides people with an understanding of the most up-to-date scientific understanding on the causes of natural hazards, their effects on human societies, and ways to mitigate their impacts and reduce their losses by focusing on Australia and the Asia-Pacific case studies. The Master of Natural Hazards program brings together the expertise of researchers across the university to provide an opportunity for students to do coursework and research projects that will provide them with extensive knowledge of the natural hazards that occur and pose the greatest risks on human communities in the Asia-Pacific, and an understanding of the human dimensions of the natural hazards occurrences. The program consists of two compulsory courses each in the Earth Sciences and in the Social Sciences that are designed to provide a complementary and comprehensive overview of natural hazards issues. Elective courses can be of a general grouping, or students may choose one of four Focus Streams: Environmental and Geographic Studies; Climate Change; Earth Structure and Imaging; or Socio-economic, Development and Policy Studies. A special case study project will involve writing a thesis on a topic to be approved by the Program Conveners and will comprise a body of work on an approved topic in natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region. Students in this program will gain a broad scientific knowledge and methodological skills to understand the physical causes and frequency of the most important natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the latest scientific methods and best practices of monitoring them for hazard mapping and disaster reduction purposes. Furthermore, students will learn to apply critical thinking in studying the involvement of societies’ social systems in framing and influencing the severity of impacts and destructions that are brought about by different physical events. The academic training in hazards and disaster research that the program offers will enable students to get actively involved in the preparation of short- and long-term disaster mitigation programs that can help members of communities in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region who, without sufficient knowledge on hazards and skills on disaster management, would be left vulnerable against the adversities that can be brought about by natural hazards.

Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) classes.

PubMed

Oyarzabal, Omar A; Rowe, Ellen

2017-04-01

The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56%) provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27%) provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20%) provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32%) did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P < 0.05). Thirty participants (42%) stated that the most valuable thing they learned with this interactive module was the difference between hazard and risk, and 40 participants (65%) responded that they did not attend similar presentations in the past. The fact that less than one third of the participants answered properly to the definitions of hazard and risk at baseline is not surprising. However, these results highlight the need for the incorporation of modules to discuss these important food safety terms and include more active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important food safety terms that serve as building blocks for the understanding of more complex food safety topics.

Scale is not an Issue : Opportunities for Collaboration among Geoscientists in Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carby, B. E.

2015-12-01

Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries face multiple hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, accelerated erosion, landslides, drought, flooding, windstorms and the effects of climate variability and change. World Bank (2005) data indicate that seventeen of the top thirty-five countries with relatively high mortality risk from 3 or more hazards are located in LAC, El Salvador has the second highest per cent of its population at risk - 77.7% and 7 of the top 10 countries for population exposure to multiple hazards are in LAC. All LAC countries have half or more of GDP exposed to at least one hazard. The report underscores the need for better data and information on hazards and disasters to inform disaster risk reduction (DRR) and supports the view that reduction of disaster risk is essential for achieving Sustainable Development (SD). This suggests that DRR must be integrated into development planning of countries. However the Global Assessment Report notes that globally, there has been little progress in mainstreaming DRR in national development (UNISDR 2009). Without this, countries will not realise development goals. DRR efforts in LAC require an integrated approach including societal input in deciding priority DRR research themes and interdisciplinary, multi-hazard research informing DRR policy and practice. Jiminez (2015) from a study of countries across LAC reports that efforts are being made to link research to national planning through inclusion of policy makers in some university-led research projects. Research by the author in Jamaica reveals that the public sector has started to apply research on hazards to inform DRR policy, programmes and plans. As most research is done by universities, there is collaboration between the public sector and academia. Despite differences in scale among countries across the region, similarities in exposure to multiple hazards and potential hazard impacts suggest that collaboration among researchers in LAC could be beneficial. It is proposed here that this collaboration should go beyond the scientific community and should include sharing of experiences in linking DRR research to national development needs, inclusion of policy makers in research design and implementation and integration of research results in policy and programme development.

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.

Advancing the citizen scientist's contributions to documenting and understanding natural hazards: a proof of concept for linking crowdsourced and remotely sensed data on landslide hazards in El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, E. R.; Griffin, R.; Markert, K. N.

2017-12-01

Scientists, practitioners, policymakers, and citizen groups, share a role in ensuring "that all sectors have access to, understand and can use scientific information for better informed decision-making" (Sendai Framework 2015-2030). When it comes to understanding hazards and exposure, inventories on disaster events are often limited. Thus, there are many opportunities for citizen scientists to engage in improving the collective understanding—and ultimately reduction—of disaster risk. Landslides are very difficult to forecast on spatial and temporal scales meaningful for early warning and evacuation. Heuristic hazard mapping methods are very common in regional hazard zonation and rely on expert knowledge of previous events and local conditions, but they often lack a temporal component. As new data analysis packages are becoming more open and accessible, probabilistic approaches that consider high resolution spatial and temporal dimensions are becoming more common, but this is only possible when rich inventories of landslide events exist. The work presented offers a proof of concept on incorporating crowd-sourced data to improve landslide hazard model performance. Starting with a national inventory of 90 catalogued landslides in El Salvador for a study period of 1998 to 2011, we simulate the addition of over 600 additional crowd-sourced landslide events that would have been identified through human interpretation of high resolution imagery in the Google Earth time slider feature. There is a noticeable improvement in performance statistics between static heuristic hazard models and probabilistic models that incorporate the events identified by the "crowd." Such a dynamic incorporation of crowd-sourced data on hazard events is not so far-fetched. Given the engagement of "local observers" in El Salvador who augment in situ hydro-meteorological measurements, the growing access to Earth observation data to the lay person, and immense interest behind connecting citizen scientists to remote sensing data through hackathons such as the NASA Space Apps Challenges, we envision a much more dynamic, collective understanding of landslide hazards. Here we present a better scenario of what we could have known had data from the crowd been incorporated into probabilistic hazard models on a regular basis.

Hazardous alcohol use and intimate partner violence in the military: understanding protective factors.

PubMed

Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Smith Slep, Amy M; Snarr, Jeffery D

2012-09-01

Hazardous alcohol use is a well-established risk factor for men's intimate partner violence (IPV), with dozens of studies demonstrating the association. The current study extends understanding of the hazardous alcohol use-IPV link by examining what factors moderate this association in a more systematic and broader way that has been done in past studies. Individual, family, workplace, community, and developmental factors were tested as moderators of the hazardous alcohol use and IPV link in a large, representative sample of active duty service members (the 2006 Community Assessment), and the results were tested for replicability in a hold-out sample. Two family variables (relationship satisfaction and parent-child satisfaction), 1 community variable (community safety), and 3 developmental variables (years in the military, marital length, and family income/pay grade) cross-validated as significant moderators of the association between men's hazardous alcohol use and IPV. Across the significant moderators, the association between hazardous alcohol use and men's IPV was weakened by maturation/development, improved community safety, and better relationship functioning. No individual or workplace variables were significant moderators for men, and there were no significant moderators found for women. The results support the importance of a developmental and relational perspective to understanding the hazardous alcohol use-IPV link, rather than solely an individual coping perspective. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Understanding Nuisance Flooding Conceptualizations and Concerns of Stakeholders in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLorme, D.; Collini, R.; Stephens, S. H.

2017-12-01

As sea level rises, nuisance flooding along coasts is increasing. There is a need to understand how the public views flooding events in order to tailor communications to different audiences appropriately and help improve community resilience. This interdisciplinary presentation is intended to foster greater awareness about present-day nuisance flooding, ongoing conversation about best practices for accurately and effectively communicating about this "cumulative hazard" and its risks, and consideration about possible preparation and mitigation options for community resilience. The presentation will begin by defining and explaining nuisance flooding according to scientific experts and the scholarly literature. Next, we will share several specific examples of how nuisance flooding is increasingly impacting certain areas in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast to demonstrate the importance of raising attention to and better understanding of this phenomenon across a range of audiences. We will particularly focus on the complex interrelated social, economic, and ecological issues associated with this hazard. Then, we will compare and contrast conceptualizations of nuisance flooding (characteristics, causes, consequences) and associated concerns from the viewpoints and experiences of various stakeholders in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast (e.g., natural resource managers, community planners, extension specialists). These data are synthesized from multiple research methods and engagement mechanisms (e.g., focus groups, workshop mapping exercises) implemented during the first year of a multi-year NOAA-sponsored interdisciplinary project on Dynamic Sea Level Rise Assessments of the Ability of Natural and Nature-based Features to Mitigate Surge and Nuisance Flooding. To conclude, we will provide future research recommendations along with references and resources about nuisance flooding.

Multiple Natural Hazards Assessment and Comparison to Planned Land Use in an Andean Touristic Site within the Riskscape Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Jaque Castillo, Edilia

2017-04-01

The Andes of central Chile are a natural environment characterized by multiple natural hazards (mass movements, volcanic hazards, seismic hazards, snow avalanches to name a few). The totality of these hazards, according to the notion of Müller-Mahn et al. an in relation to vulnerable entities, spans a riskscape. Spatial planning should take this riskscape into account in order to ensure a save an resilient regional development. However, as frequently observed in developing or newly developed countries, such precaution measures are only hardly realized. Spatial planing tends to be reactive to private inversion, opportunistic and frequently clientelistic. This results in spatial structures whose future development is vulnerable to natural disasters. The contribution analyses these circumstances within a riskscape in central Chile. Within the VIII. Region, close to the volcanic complex Nevados de Chillan, a touristic development around a Hotel for winter sports is established. However, the place is affected by a multitude of natural hazards. The contribution, on the basis of primary and secondary data, first provides hazard maps for several natural hazards. Secondly, the individual hazard maps are merged to an overall hazard map. This overall hazard map is related to the vulnerable entities to span a riskscape. The vulnerable entities are settlements, but also tourist infrastructures. Then, the contribution compares how a precautions spatial planning could have avoided putting vulnerable entities at risk, which spatial structure - especially regarding tourism - is actually found and which challenges for spatial development do exist. It reveals that the most important tourist infrastructures are found particularly at places, characterized by a high overall hazard. Furthermore, it will show that alternatives at economically equally attractive sites, but with a much smaller overall hazard, would have existed. It concludes by discussing possible reasons for this by considering the Chilean planning system.

Risk Management for Wilderness Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schimelpfenig, Tod

This paper discusses subjective hazards in wilderness activities and suggests means of assessing and managing related risks. Wilderness educators conveniently group hazards into objective and subjective ones. Objective hazards such as rockfall, moving water, and weather, while not necessarily predictable, are visible and understandable. Subjective…

Outstanding challenges in the seismological study of volcanic processes: Results from recent U.S. and European community-wide discussion workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, D. C.; Rodgers, M.; Mather, T. A.; Power, J. A.; Pyle, D. M.

2014-12-01

Observations of volcanically induced seismicity are essential for eruption forecasting and for real-time and near-real-time warnings of hazardous volcanic activity. Studies of volcanic seismicity and of seismic wave propagation also provide critical understanding of subsurface magmatic systems and the physical processes associated with magma genesis, transport, and eruption. However, desipite significant advances in recent years, our ability to successfully forecast volcanic eruptions and fully understand subsurface volcanic processes is limited by our current understanding of the source processes of volcano-seismic events, the effects on seismic wave propagation within volcanic structures, limited data, and even the non-standardized terminology used to describe seismic waveforms. Progress in volcano seismology is further hampered by inconsistent data formats and standards, lack of state-of-the-art hardware and professional technical staff, as well as a lack of widely adopted analysis techniques and software. Addressing these challenges will not only advance scientific understanding of volcanoes, but also will lead to more accurate forecasts and warnings of hazardous volcanic eruptions that would ultimately save lives and property world-wide. Two recent workshops held in Anchorage, Alaska, and Oxford, UK, represent important steps towards developing a relationship among members of the academic community and government agencies, focused around a shared, long-term vision for volcano seismology. Recommendations arising from the two workshops fall into six categories: 1) Ongoing and enhanced community-wide discussions, 2) data and code curation and dissemination, 3) code development, 4) development of resources for more comprehensive data mining, 5) enhanced strategic seismic data collection, and 6) enhanced integration of multiple datasets (including seismicity) to understand all states of volcano activity through space and time. As presented sequentially above, these steps can be regarded as a road map for galvanizing and strengthening the volcano seismological community to drive new scientific and technical progress over the next 5-10 years.

Novel Flood Detection and Analysis Method Using Recurrence Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, Dadiyorto; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert

2016-04-01

Temporal changes in flood hazard are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defence, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flood hazard in Germany. The recurrence plot is known as an effective tool to visualize the dynamics of phase space trajectories i.e. constructed from a time series by using an embedding dimension and a time delay, and it is known to be effective in analyzing non-stationary and non-linear time series. The emphasis will be on the identification of characteristic recurrence properties that could associate typical dynamic behavior to certain flood situations.

Arctic BioMap: Building Participatory Technologies for Community-Specific Environmental Monitoring and Decision Making in the North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, M. S.; Panikkar, B.; Liang, S.; Kutz, S.

2016-12-01

The Arctic continues to undergo unprecedented and accelerated system-wide environmental change. For people who live in the north this presents challenges to resource management, subsistence, health and well-being, and yet, there is very little community-specific data on wildlife (including wildlife health), local environmental conditions and emerging hazards in Northern Canada. A novel approach that integrates community expertise with developing technologies can simplify data collection and improve understanding of current and future conditions. It can also improve our ability to manage and adapt to the rapidly transforming Arctic. Arctic BioMap is a data platform for real-time monitoring and a geospatial informational database of wildlife and environmental information useful for assessment, research, management, and education. It enables monitoring of wildlife and environmental variables including hazards to inform decision-making at multiples scales. Using participatory technologies Arctic BioMap incorporates indigenous research needs and the ensuing data can be used to inform policy making. Arctic BioMap provides a forum for continuous exchange and communication among community members, scientists, resources managers, and other stakeholders.

Transcriptomic Dose-Response Analysis for Mode of Action ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Microarray and RNA-seq technologies can play an important role in assessing the health risks associated with environmental exposures. The utility of gene expression data to predict hazard has been well documented. Early toxicogenomics studies used relatively high, single doses with minimal replication. Thus, they were not useful in understanding health risks at environmentally-relevant doses. Until the past decade, application of toxicogenomics in dose response assessment and determination of chemical mode of action has been limited. New transcriptomic biomarkers have evolved to detect chemical hazards in multiple tissues together with pathway methods to study biological effects across the full dose response range and critical time course. Comprehensive low dose datasets are now available and with the use of transcriptomic benchmark dose estimation techniques within a mode of action framework, the ability to incorporate informative genomic data into human health risk assessment has substantially improved. The key advantage to applying transcriptomic technology to risk assessment is both the sensitivity and comprehensive examination of direct and indirect molecular changes that lead to adverse outcomes. Book Chapter with topic on future application of toxicogenomics technologies for MoA and risk assessment

HOW to Recognize and Reduce Tree Hazards in Recreation Sites

Treesearch

Kathyn Robbins

1986-01-01

An understanding of the many factors affecting tree hazards in recreation sites will help predict which trees are most likely to fail. Hazard tree management deals with probabilities of failure. This guide, written for anyone involved in management or maintenance of public use areas that contain trees, is intended to help minimize the risk associated with hazard trees...

Patterns of Risk Using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard Model (PRISM Model)

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-hazard risk assessment has long centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities’ exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is li...

Defining hazard from the mine worker's perspective

PubMed Central

Eiter, B.M.; Kosmoski, C.L.; Connor, B.P.

2016-01-01

In the recent past, the mining industry has witnessed a substantial increase in the numbers of fatalities occurring at metal and nonmetal mine sites, but it is unclear why this is occurring. One possible explanation is that workers struggle with identifying worksite hazards and accurately assessing the associated risk. The purpose of this research was to explore this possibility within the mining industry and to more fully understand stone, sand and gravel (SSG) mine workers' thoughts, understandings and perceptions of worksite hazards and risks. Eight mine workers were interviewed and asked to identify common hazards they come across when doing their jobs and to then discuss their perceptions of the risks associated with those identified hazards. The results of this exploratory study indicate the importance of workers' job-related experience as it applies to hazard identification and risk perception, particularly their knowledge of or familiarity with a task, whether or not they had personal control over that task, and the frequency with which they perform that task. PMID:28042176

Lidar and Electro-Optics for Atmospheric Hazard Sensing and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Ivan O.

2012-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the research and development efforts of the Lidar and Electro-Optics element of NASA's Aviation Safety Program. This element is seeking to improve the understanding of the atmospheric environments encountered by aviation and to provide enhanced situation awareness for atmospheric hazards. The improved understanding of atmospheric conditions is specifically to develop sensor signatures for atmospheric hazards. The current emphasis is on kinetic air hazards such as turbulence, aircraft wake vortices, mountain rotors, and windshear. Additional efforts are underway to identify and quantify the hazards arising from multi-phase atmospheric conditions including liquid and solid hydrometeors and volcanic ash. When the multi-phase conditions act as obscurants that result in reduced visual awareness, the element seeks to mitigate the hazards associated with these diminished visual environments. The overall purpose of these efforts is to enable safety improvements for air transport class and business jet class aircraft as the transition to the Next Generation Air Transportation System occurs.

Decreased pain sensitivity due to trimethylbenzene exposure: case study on quantitative approaches for hazard identification

EPA Science Inventory

Traditionally, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification, often using the Hill criteria and weight of evidence determinations to integrate data from multiple studies. Recently, the National Research Council has recommended the ...

A systems approach to risk reduction of transportation infrastructure networks subject to multiple hazards : final report, December 31, 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-31

Integrity, robustness, reliability, and resiliency of infrastructure networks are vital to the economy, : security and well-being of any country. Faced with threats caused by natural and man-made hazards, : transportation infrastructure network manag...

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Children's Understandings Related to Hazardous Household Items and Waste

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malandrakis, George N.

2008-01-01

This study focuses on children's understanding of hazardous household items (HHI) and waste (HHW). Children from grades 4, 5 and 6 (n=173) participated in a questionnaire and interview research design. The results indicate that: (a) on a daily basis the children used HHI and disposed of HHW, (b) the children did not realize the danger of these…

Towards a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Gulf of Cadiz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Urgeles, Roger

2017-04-01

Landslides and volcanic flank collapses constitute a significant portion of all known tsunami sources, and they are less constrained geographically than earthquakes as they are not tied to large fault zones. While landslides have mostly produced local tsunamis historically, prehistoric evidence show that landslides can also produce ocean wide tsunamis. Because the landslide induced tsunami probability is more difficult to quantify than the one induced by earthquakes, our understanding of the landslide tsunami hazard is less understood. To improve our understanding and methodologies to deal with this hazard, we here present results and methods for a preliminary landslide probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (LPTHA) for the Gulf of Cadiz for submerged landslides. The present literature on LPTHA is sparse, and studies have so far been separated into two groups, the first based on observed magnitude frequency distributions (MFD's), the second based on simplified geotechnical slope stability analysis. We argue that the MFD based approach is best suited when a sufficient amount of data covering a wide range of volumes is available, although uncertainties in the dating of the landslides often represent a potential large source of bias. To this end, the relatively rich availability of landslide data in the Gulf of Cadiz makes this area suitable for developing and testing LPTHA models. In the presentation, we will first explore the landslide data and statistics, including different spatial factors such as slope versus volume relationships, faults etc. Examples of how random realizations can be used to distribute tsunami source over the study area will be demonstrated. Furthermore, computational strategies for simulating both the landslide and the tsunami generation in a simplified way will be described. To this end, we use depth averaged viscoplastic landslide model coupled to the numerical tsunami model to represent a set of idealized tsunami sources, which are in turn put into a regional tsunami model for computing the tsunami propagation. We devote attention to discussing the epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity of the landslide input parameters, and how these may affect the hazard assessment. As the full variability of the landslide parameters cannot be endured, we show that there is a considerable challenge related to the multiple landslide parameter variability. Finally, we discuss some logical next steps in the analysis, as well as possible sources of error.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Technical Report - FINAL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbara Luke, Director, UNLV Engineering Geophysics Laboratory

2007-04-25

Improve understanding of the earthquake hazard in the Las Vegas Valley and to assess the state of preparedness of the area's population and structures for the next big earthquake. 1. Enhance the seismic monitoring network in the Las Vegas Valley 2. Improve understanding of deep basin structure through active-source seismic refraction and reflection testing 3. Improve understanding of dynamic response of shallow sediments through seismic testing and correlations with lithology 4. Develop credible earthquake scenarios by laboratory and field studies, literature review and analyses 5. Refine ground motion expectations around the Las Vegas Valley through simulations 6. Assess current buildingmore » standards in light of improved understanding of hazards 7. Perform risk assessment for structures and infrastructures, with emphasis on lifelines and critical structures 8. Encourage and facilitate broad and open technical interchange regarding earthquake safety in southern Nevada and efforts to inform citizens of earthquake hazards and mitigation opportunities« less

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Robert; Jordan, Thomas H.; Callaghan, Scott; Deelman, Ewa; Field, Edward; Juve, Gideon; Kesselman, Carl; Maechling, Philip; Mehta, Gaurang; Milner, Kevin; Okaya, David; Small, Patrick; Vahi, Karan

2011-03-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

2011-01-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

The Implications of Strike-Slip Earthquake Source Properties on the Transform Boundary Development Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Furlong, K.

2017-12-01

Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults, produced by the tearing of a subducting plate, allow us to study the development of a transform plate boundary and improve our understanding of both long-term geologic processes and short-term seismic hazards. The 280 km long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, shows along-strike variations in earthquake behaviors. The segment of the SCT closest to the tear rarely hosts earthquakes > Mw 6, whereas the SCT sections more than 80 - 100 km from the tear experience Mw7 earthquakes with repeated rupture along the same segments. To understand the effect of cumulative displacement on SCT seismicity, we analyze b-values, centroid-time delays and corner frequencies of the SCT earthquakes. We use the spectral ratio method based on Empirical Green's Functions (eGfs) to isolate source effects from propagation and site effects. We find high b-values along the SCT closest to the tear with values decreasing with distance before finally increasing again towards the far end of the SCT. Centroid time-delays for the Mw 7 strike-slip earthquakes increase with distance from the tear, but corner frequency estimates for a recent sequence of Mw 7 earthquakes are approximately equal, indicating a growing complexity in earthquake behavior with distance from the tear due to a displacement-driven transform boundary development process (see figure). The increasing complexity possibly stems from the earthquakes along the eastern SCT rupturing through multiple asperities resulting in multiple moment pulses. If not for the bounding Vanuatu subduction zone at the far end of the SCT, the eastern SCT section, which has experienced the most displacement, might be capable of hosting larger earthquakes. When assessing the seismic hazard of other STEP faults, cumulative fault displacement should be considered a key input in determining potential earthquake size.

A modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures in multi-hazard environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Jones, Dean A.

Currently, much of protection planning is conducted separately for each infrastructure and hazard. Limited funding requires a balance of expenditures between terrorism and natural hazards based on potential impacts. This report documents the results of a Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project that created a modeling framework for investment planning in interdependent infrastructures focused on multiple hazards, including terrorism. To develop this framework, three modeling elements were integrated: natural hazards, terrorism, and interdependent infrastructures. For natural hazards, a methodology was created for specifying events consistent with regional hazards. For terrorism, we modeled the terrorists actions based on assumptions regardingmore » their knowledge, goals, and target identification strategy. For infrastructures, we focused on predicting post-event performance due to specific terrorist attacks and natural hazard events, tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with various examples, including protection of electric power, roadway, and hospital networks.« less

Neurofilament light chain and oligoclonal bands are prognostic biomarkers in radiologically isolated syndrome.

PubMed

Matute-Blanch, Clara; Villar, Luisa M; Álvarez-Cermeño, José C; Rejdak, Konrad; Evdoshenko, Evgeniy; Makshakov, Gleb; Nazarov, Vladimir; Lapin, Sergey; Midaglia, Luciana; Vidal-Jordana, Angela; Drulovic, Jelena; García-Merino, Antonio; Sánchez-López, Antonio J; Havrdova, Eva; Saiz, Albert; Llufriu, Sara; Alvarez-Lafuente, Roberto; Schroeder, Ina; Zettl, Uwe K; Galimberti, Daniela; Ramió-Torrentà, Lluís; Robles, René; Quintana, Ester; Hegen, Harald; Deisenhammer, Florian; Río, Jordi; Tintoré, Mar; Sánchez, Alex; Montalban, Xavier; Comabella, Manuel

2018-04-01

The prognostic role of cerebrospinal fluid molecular biomarkers determined in early pathogenic stages of multiple sclerosis has yet to be defined. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the prognostic value of chitinase 3 like 1 (CHI3L1), neurofilament light chain, and oligoclonal bands for conversion to clinically isolated syndrome and to multiple sclerosis in 75 patients with radiologically isolated syndrome. Cerebrospinal fluid levels of CHI3L1 and neurofilament light chain were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models including as covariates age at diagnosis of radiologically isolated syndrome, number of brain lesions, sex and treatment were used to investigate associations between cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 and neurofilament light chain levels and time to conversion to clinically isolated syndrome and multiple sclerosis. Neurofilament light chain levels and oligoclonal bands were independent risk factors for the development of clinically isolated syndrome (hazard ratio = 1.02, P = 0.019, and hazard ratio = 14.7, P = 0.012, respectively) and multiple sclerosis (hazard ratio = 1.03, P = 0.003, and hazard ratio = 8.9, P = 0.046, respectively). The best cut-off to classify cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain levels into high and low was 619 ng/l, and high neurofilament light chain levels were associated with a trend to shorter time to clinically isolated syndrome (P = 0.079) and significant shorter time to multiple sclerosis (P = 0.017). Similarly, patients with radiologically isolated syndrome presenting positive oligoclonal bands converted faster to clinically isolated syndrome and multiple sclerosis (P = 0.005 and P = 0.008, respectively). The effects of high neurofilament light chain levels shortening time to clinically isolated syndrome and multiple sclerosis were more pronounced in radiologically isolated syndrome patients with ≥37 years compared to younger patients. Cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 levels did not influence conversion to clinically isolated syndrome and multiple sclerosis in radiologically isolated syndrome patients. Overall, these findings suggest that cerebrospinal neurofilament light chain levels and oligoclonal bands are independent predictors of clinical conversion in patients with radiologically isolated syndrome. The association with a faster development of multiple sclerosis reinforces the importance of cerebrospinal fluid analysis in patients with radiologically isolated syndrome.

Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medler, Michael Johns

Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy classifications of potential burn patterns were produced from these images. Observed field data values were displayed over the hazard imagery to indicate the effectiveness of the model. Areas that burned without suppression during maximum fire severity are predicted best. Areas with widely spaced trees and grassy understory appear to be misrepresented, perhaps as a consequence of inaccuracies in the initial fire mapping.

Links - Helpful Tools | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Systems Alaska Tidal Datum Portal For Alaska's coastal communities, an understanding and awareness of local tidal datums is critical to assessing vulnerability and planning responses to coastal geohazards

77 FR 29899 - Safety Zone; International Special Operations Forces Week Capability Exercise, Seddon Channel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-21

... is necessary to protect the public from the hazards associated with airborne and waterborne... the hazards associated with the airborne and waterborne activities during the exercise. Discussion of... the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. The exercise will consist of multiple airborne and...

A Seismic Shift: Evaluating Changes in Scientists' Attitudes Regarding Journalists and Science Communication After Media Workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, S.; Herbulock, D.

2015-12-01

Providing natural hazards scientists the opportunity to question and engage directly with journalists in a workshop setting proved effective at shifting scientists' attitudes on their role in media and public communication during natural disasters. Scientists surveyed after the encounter expressed a more responsive attitude to communicating during crises, increased willingness to support scientific peers' communication efforts and more realistic perspectives on journalists' needs and objectives. Geoscientists experienced unprecedented and intensive media and public scrutiny during the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes of 2010-2012. Following major quakes and aftershocks, there was a sustained high level of public demand for information and expert analysis of the underlying geological events and ongoing hazards and risks. Once the crisis ended, a period of reflection gave rise to understanding of the need for further media and communication training amongst natural hazards scientists. A workshop designed to explore scientists' attitudes to public communication during disasters and challenge their views on media, press offices and the expectations of the public was developed and implemented by the Science Media Centre, New Zealand and Massey University. This research was developed as an evaluation of this workshop. Quantitative analysis with some qualititive analysis were the methods used. Some findings include: a shift in how journalists were perceived by scientists after the workshop, largely influenced by perspectives shared during a panel where invited journalists reflected on their own experiences and answered questions from scientists. discussions on different spokespeople from different science institutions contributing to the public discussion showed a change in perception from a preference for one central spokesperson to increased support for a variety of perspectives from multiple scientists. This was influenced by insight provided by journalists during the workshop into the practical demands of media and the need for multiple voices in media coverage. changes in how they would manage media queries, as well as a shift from passive to responsive attitudes towards communicating in crises.

New Zealanders working non-standard hours also have greater exposure to other workplace hazards.

PubMed

Jay, Sarah M; Gander, Philippa H; Eng, Amanda; Cheng, Soo; Douwes, Jeroen; Ellison-Loschmann, Lis; McLean, Dave; Pearce, Neil; 'tMannetje, Andrea

2017-01-01

Exposure to workplace hazards, such as dust, solvents, and fumes, has the potential to adversely affect the health of people. However, the effects of workplace hazards on health may differ when exposure occurs at different times in the circadian cycle, and among people who work longer hours or who do not obtain adequate sleep. The aim of the present study was to document exposures to workplace hazards across a national sample of New Zealanders, comparing people who work a standard 08:00 -17:00 h Monday-to-Friday working week (Std hours) and those who do not (N-Std hours). New Zealanders (n = 10 000) aged 20-64 yrs were randomly selected from the Electoral Roll to take part in a nationwide survey of workplace exposures. Telephone interviews were conducted between 2004 and 2006, using a six-part questionnaire addressing demographics, detailed information on the current or most recent job (including exposures to a range of workplace hazards), sleep, sleepiness, and health status. N-Std hours were categorised on the basis of: being required to start work prior to 07:00 h or finish work after 21:00 h and/or; having a regular on-call commitment (at least once per week) and/or; working rotating shifts and/or; working night shift(s) in the last month. The response rate was 37% (n = 3003), with 22.2% of participants (n = 656) categorised as working N-Std hours. Industry sectors with the highest numbers of participants working N-Std hours were manufacturing, health and community services, and agriculture, fishing, and forestry. Response rate was 37% (n = 3003) with 22.2% (n = 656) categorised as working N-Std hours. Participants working N-Std hours were more likely to be exposed to all identified hazards, including multiple hazards (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 2.01-3.0) compared to those working Std hours. Participants working N-Std hours were also more likely to report 'never/rarely' getting enough sleep (OR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.15-1.65), 'never/rarely' waking refreshed (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.04-1.47), and excessive sleepiness (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.29-2.42). New Zealanders working N-Std hours are more likely to be exposed to hazards in the workplace, to be exposed to multiple hazards, and to report inadequate sleep and excessive sleepiness than their colleagues working a standard 08:00-17:00 h Monday-to-Friday working week. More research is needed on the effects of exposure to hazardous substances outside the usual waking day, on the effects of exposure to multiple hazards, and on the combination of hazard exposure and sleep restriction as a result of shift work.

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; forest structure and fire hazard fact sheet 01: forest structure and fire hazard overview

Treesearch

Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service

2004-01-01

Many managers and policymakers guided by the National Environmental Policy Act process want to understand the scientific principles on which they can base fuel treatments for reducing the size and severity of wildfires. These Forest Structure and Fire Hazard fact sheets discuss how to estimate fire hazard, how to visualize fuel treatments, and how the role of...

Nanotoxicity: challenging the myth of nano-specific toxicity.

PubMed

Donaldson, Ken; Poland, Craig A

2013-08-01

The analysis of nanoparticle (NP) hazard is currently a major research pre-occupation for particle toxicologists since there is a pressing requirement for a comprehensive understanding of nanoparticle hazard because of the wide spectrum of NP varying in composition, shape and size that require testing for risk assessment. The Biologically Effective Doses (BEDs) of nanoparticles, the dose entity that drives toxicity include charge, solubility, contaminants, shape and the ability to translocate from the site of deposition in the lungs. We point out here that all of these modes of toxicity are relevant and described for conventional pathogenic particles. There is no evidence that particles below 100nm, the threshold definition of a NP, show any step-change in their hazard meaning that there is no evidence of novel 'nano-specific hazard'. Therefore conventional particle toxicology data are useful and relevant to the determination of the nanoparticle hazard. Emphasis away from 'nano-specific effects' and the availability of hazard data from conventional particles will focus limited resource towards a full understanding of the NP hazard. This will lead to improved ability to identify and test for their effects and measure their toxicokinetics and so contribute to their risk assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Making Do" Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards.

PubMed

Wills, Celia E; Polivka, Barbara J; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

2016-04-01

This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of "making do" decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. © The Author(s) 2015.

“Making Do” Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards

PubMed Central

Wills, Celia E.; Polivka, Barbara J.; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

2016-01-01

This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of “making do” decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. PMID:26669605

[Hazard function and life table: an introduction to the failure time analysis].

PubMed

Matsushita, K; Inaba, H

1987-04-01

Failure time analysis has become popular in demographic studies. It can be viewed as a part of regression analysis with limited dependent variables as well as a special case of event history analysis and multistate demography. The idea of hazard function and failure time analysis, however, has not been properly introduced to nor commonly discussed by demographers in Japan. The concept of hazard function in comparison with life tables is briefly described, where the force of mortality is interchangeable with the hazard rate. The basic idea of failure time analysis is summarized for the cases of exponential distribution, normal distribution, and proportional hazard models. The multiple decrement life table is also introduced as an example of lifetime data analysis with cause-specific hazard rates.

A flame burning within.

PubMed

Ferrucci, Luigi; Ble, Alessandro; Bandinelli, Stefania; Lauretani, Fulvio; Suthers, Kristen; Guralnik, Jack M

2004-06-01

Inflammation is a human being's primary defense against threats to homeostasis that are encountered every day. Especially in old age, when regulatory mechanisms responsible for inflammatory responses may be ineffective or damaged, the result can be adverse pathological conditions, and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality. The inflammation response is a plastic network composed of redundant signaling among several different mediators. These mediators have a reciprocal relationship with other biological sub-systems, including hormone regulation, the autonomic nervous system, and oxidative/anti-oxidant balance. Studying this complex architecture requires parallel and multiple research strategies from epidemiological to biochemical level, from observational studies to innovative intervention approaches. Given that the inflammatory response is a critical age-related process, understanding its regulatory action is essential in avoiding hazardous consequences in old age.

Acute and chronic systemic chromium toxicity.

PubMed

Gad, S C

1989-10-01

Although chromium and compounds containing it have been recognized as having potential severe adverse effects on health for more than 160 years, understanding of the systemic toxicology and true hazard of these compounds is still not complete. A review of the current state of knowledge is attempted in this paper, with appropriate attention given to the complications of multiple valence states and solubility. Selected chromium compounds, particularly hexavalent ones, are carcinogens, corrosives, delayed contact sensitizers, and have the kidney as their primary target organ. But chromium is also an essential element for humans. The body clearly possesses some effective detoxification mechanisms for some degree of exposure to hexavalent chrome compounds. The significant features of acute and chronic chromium toxicity are presented in view of these considerations.

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

HAZ-ED Classroom Activities for Understanding Hazardous Waste.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

The Federal Superfund Program investigates and cleans up hazardous waste sites throughout the United States. Part of this program is devoted to informing the public and involving people in the process of cleaning up hazardous waste sites from beginning to end. The Haz-Ed program was developed to assist the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA)…

Waste Management and Disposal for Artists and Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Babin, Angela; McCann, Michael

Artists, art teachers, and students need to understand the problems associated with disposing of waste materials, some of which may be hazardous. The waste products of art projects, even if non-hazardous, also use up space in overloaded landfills. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets forth guidelines for disposing of hazardous wastes.…

Hazardous Materials Chemistry for the Non-Chemist. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wray, Thomas K.; Enholm, Eric J.

This book provides a basic introduction for the student to hazardous materials chemistry. Coverage of chemistry, rather than non-chemical hazards, is particularly stressed on a level which the layman can understand. Basic terminology is emphasized at all levels, as are simple chemistry symbols, in order to provide the student with an introductory…

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

PubMed

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Prioritizing recovery of urban lifelines in the aftermath of hazards: Transportation in post-Harvey Houston

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M. E.; Bhatia, U.; Sela, L.; Wang, R.; Kodra, E.; Ganguly, A. R.

2017-12-01

A well-designed recovery strategy for lifeline infrastructure networks can lead to faster and more reliable restoration of essential services in the aftermath of natural catastrophes such as hurricanes or earthquakes. Urban and regional lifelines impact one another, while the recovery of urban lifelines in turn impacts regional infrastructural resilience, owing to the interdependence of lifelines across scales. Prior work by our team, often in collaboration, has led to the development of new recovery approaches based on network science and engineering, including centrality measures from network science, information theoretic metrics, and network optimization approaches. We have developed proof-of-concept demonstrations at both regional scales, such as for the Indian Railways Network and the US National Airspace System both subjected to multiple hazards, and to urban settings, such as the post-Hurricane recovery of combined power-subway system-of-systems in Boston and the New York City MTA after Hurricane Sandy. Here we make an attempt to understand how such methods may have been, or continue to be, applicable to the transportation network in Houston post-Harvey, and more broadly, how and to what extent lessons learned in urban and regional resilience may generalize across cases. We make an assessment of the state of the literature, process understanding, simulation models, data science methods, and best practices, necessary to address problems of this nature, with a particular focus on post-Harvey recovery of transportation services in Houston.

SLEUTH (Strategies and Lessons to Eliminate Unused Toxicants: Help!). Educational Activities on the Disposal of Household Hazardous Waste. Household Hazardous Waste Disposal Project. Metro Toxicant Program Report No. 1D.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyckman, Claire; And Others

This teaching unit is part of the final report of the Household Hazardous Waste Disposal Project. It consists of activities presented in an introduction and three sections. The introduction contains an activity for students in grades 4-12 which defines terms and concepts for understanding household hazardous wastes. Section I provides activities…

Oregon Hazard Explorer for Lifelines Program (OHELP): A web-based geographic information system tool for assessing potential Cascadia earthquake hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi Mood, M.; Olsen, M. J.; Gillins, D. T.; Javadnejad, F.

2016-12-01

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has the ability to generate earthquake as powerful as 9 moment magnitude creating great amount of damage to structures and facilities in Oregon. Series of deterministic earthquake analysis are performed for M9.0, M8.7, M8.4 and M8.1 presenting persistent, long lasting shaking associated with other geological threats such as ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction-induced ground deformations, fault rupture vertical displacement, tsunamis, etc. These ground deformation endangers urban structures, foundations, bridges, roadways, pipelines and other lifelines. Lifeline providers in Oregon, including private and public practices responsible for transportation, electric and gas utilities, water and wastewater, fuel, airports, and harbors face an aging infrastructure that was built prior to a full understanding of this extreme seismic risk. As recently experienced in Chile and Japan, a three to five minutes long earthquake scenario, expected in Oregon, necessities a whole different method of risk mitigation for these major lifelines than those created for shorter shakings from crustal earthquakes. A web-based geographic information system tool is developed to fully assess the potential hazard from the multiple threats impending from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes in the region. The purpose of this website is to provide easy access to the latest and best available hazard information over the web, including work completed in the recent Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP) (OSSPAC, 2013) and other work completed by the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As a result, this tool is designated for engineers, planners, geologists, and others who need this information to help make appropriate decisions despite the fact that this web-GIS tool only needs minimal knowledge of GIS to work with.

Hazardous materials accidents: initial scene assessment and patient care.

PubMed

Leonard, R B

1993-06-01

Hazardous materials, i.e., chemicals that are toxic, corrosive, flammable, or explosive, are a ubiquitous aspect of modern life. They are manufactured throughout the United States, shipped by truck, train, barge, and pipeline, and stored at a wide variety of locations, including factories, military bases, and warehouses. Accidents involving hazardous materials present an added dimension of danger to emergency personnel arriving first at the scene, and have the potential to produce chemically contaminated patients who require special medical treatment. Personnel arriving first at the scene must understand how to evaluate the scene for fast and safe mitigation without endangering themselves. Chemically contaminated patients require prompt treatment, which, for optimal outcome, must begin at the scene. Although frequently the identification of the hazardous materials involved is not known initially, emergency personnel may safely provide medical care to the victims by understanding and following the principles of hazardous materials accidents and the pathophysiology of chemical injuries as presented in this paper.

Hurricane Charley Exposure and Hazard of Preterm Delivery, Florida 2004.

PubMed

Grabich, Shannon C; Robinson, Whitney R; Engel, Stephanie M; Konrad, Charles E; Richardson, David B; Horney, Jennifer A

2016-12-01

Objective Hurricanes are powerful tropical storm systems with high winds which influence many health effects. Few studies have examined whether hurricane exposure is associated with preterm delivery. We aimed to estimate associations between maternal hurricane exposure and hazard of preterm delivery. Methods We used data on 342,942 singleton births from Florida Vital Statistics Records 2004-2005 to capture pregnancies at risk of delivery during the 2004 hurricane season. Maternal exposure to Hurricane Charley was assigned based on maximum wind speed in maternal county of residence. We estimated hazards of overall preterm delivery (<37 gestational weeks) and extremely preterm delivery (<32 gestational weeks) in Cox regression models, adjusting for maternal/pregnancy characteristics. To evaluate heterogeneity among racial/ethnic subgroups, we performed analyses stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional models investigated whether exposure to multiples hurricanes increased hazard relative to exposure to one hurricane. Results Exposure to wind speeds ≥39 mph from Hurricane Charley was associated with a 9 % (95 % CI 3, 16 %) increase in hazard of extremely preterm delivery, while exposure to wind speed ≥74 mph was associated with a 21 % (95 % CI 6, 38 %) increase. Associations appeared greater for Hispanic mothers compared to non-Hispanic white mothers. Hurricane exposure did not appear to be associated with hazard of overall preterm delivery. Exposure to multiple hurricanes did not appear more harmful than exposure to a single hurricane. Conclusions Hurricane exposure may increase hazard of extremely preterm delivery. As US coastal populations and hurricane severity increase, the associations between hurricane and preterm delivery should be further studied.

The Importance of Returned Martian Samples for Constraining Potential Hazards to Future Human Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

iMOST Team; Harrington, A. D.; Carrier, B. L.; Fernandez-Remolar, D. C.; Fogarty, J.; McCoy, J. T.; Rucker, M. A.; Spry, J. A.; Altieri, F.; Amelin, Y.; Ammannito, E.; Anand, M.; Beaty, D. W.; Benning, L. G.; Bishop, J. L.; Borg, L. E.; Boucher, D.; Brucato, J. R.; Busemann, H.; Campbell, K. A.; Czaja, A. D.; Debaille, V.; Des Marais, D. J.; Dixon, M.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Farmer, J. D.; Glavin, D. P.; Goreva, Y. S.; Grady, M. M.; Hallis, L. J.; Hausrath, E. M.; Herd, C. D. K.; Horgan, B.; Humayun, M.; Kleine, T.; Kleinhenz, J.; Mangold, N.; Mackelprang, R.; Mayhew, L. E.; McCubbin, F. M.; McLennan, S. M.; McSween, H. Y.; Moser, D. E.; Moynier, F.; Mustard, J. F.; Niles, P. B.; Ori, G. G.; Raulin, F.; Rettberg, P.; Schmitz, N.; Sefton-Nash, E.; Sephton, M. A.; Shaheen, R.; Shuster, D. L.; Siljestrom, S.; Smith, C. L.; Steele, A.; Swindle, T. D.; ten Kate, I. L.; Tosca, N. J.; Usui, T.; Van Kranendonk, M. J.; Wadhwa, M.; Weiss, B. P.; Werner, S. C.; Westall, F.; Wheeler, R. M.; Zipfel, J.; Zorzano, M. P.

2018-04-01

Thorough characterization and evaluation of returned martian regolith and airfall samples are critical to understanding the potential health and engineering system hazards during future human exploration.

Airborne Forward-Looking Interferometer for the Detection of Terminal-Area Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Leanne; Gimmestad, Gary; Lane, Sarah; Smith, Bill L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Daniels, Taumi S.; Cornman, Larry; Sharman, Bob

2014-01-01

The Forward Looking Interferometer (FLI) program was a multi-year cooperative research effort to investigate the use of imaging radiometers with high spectral resolution, using both modeling/simulation and field experiments, along with sophisticated data analysis techniques that were originally developed for analysis of data from space-based radiometers and hyperspectral imagers. This investigation has advanced the state of knowledge in this technical area, and the FLI program developed a greatly improved understanding of the radiometric signal strength of aviation hazards in a wide range of scenarios, in addition to a much better understanding of the real-world functionality requirements for hazard detection instruments. The project conducted field experiments on three hazards (turbulence, runway conditions, and wake vortices) and analytical studies on several others including volcanic ash, reduced visibility conditions, in flight icing conditions, and volcanic ash.

The Role of Environmental Hazard in Mothers' Beliefs about Appropriate Supervision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Damashek, Amy; Borduin, Charles; Ronis, Scott

2014-01-01

Understanding factors that influence mothers' beliefs about appropriate levels of supervision for their children may assist in efforts to reduce child injury rates. This study examined the interaction of child (i.e. age, gender, and injury risk behavior) and maternal perception of environmental hazard (i.e. hazard level, injury likelihood,…

Multiple kernel based feature and decision level fusion of iECO individuals for explosive hazard detection in FLIR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Stanton R.; Murray, Bryce; Hu, Lequn; Anderson, Derek T.; Havens, Timothy C.; Luke, Robert H.; Keller, James M.

2016-05-01

A serious threat to civilians and soldiers is buried and above ground explosive hazards. The automatic detection of such threats is highly desired. Many methods exist for explosive hazard detection, e.g., hand-held based sensors, downward and forward looking vehicle mounted platforms, etc. In addition, multiple sensors are used to tackle this extreme problem, such as radar and infrared (IR) imagery. In this article, we explore the utility of feature and decision level fusion of learned features for forward looking explosive hazard detection in IR imagery. Specifically, we investigate different ways to fuse learned iECO features pre and post multiple kernel (MK) support vector machine (SVM) based classification. Three MK strategies are explored; fixed rule, heuristics and optimization-based. Performance is assessed in the context of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves on data from a U.S. Army test site that contains multiple target and clutter types, burial depths and times of day. Specifically, the results reveal two interesting things. First, the different MK strategies appear to indicate that the different iECO individuals are all more-or-less important and there is not a dominant feature. This is reinforcing as our hypothesis was that iECO provides different ways to approach target detection. Last, we observe that while optimization-based MK is mathematically appealing, i.e., it connects the learning of the fusion to the underlying classification problem we are trying to solve, it appears to be highly susceptible to over fitting and simpler, e.g., fixed rule and heuristics approaches help us realize more generalizable iECO solutions.

The Many Hazards of Trend Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Zhang, X.; Kimball, J. S.; Small, C.

2014-12-01

Given the awareness in the scientific community of global scale drivers such as population growth, globalization, and climatic variation and change, many studies seek to identify temporal patterns in data that may be plausibly related to one or more aspect of global change. Here we explore two questions: "What constitutes a trend in a time series?" and "How can a trend be misinterpreted?" There are manifold hazards—both methodological and psychological—in detecting a trend, quantifying its magnitude, assessing its significance, identifying probable causes, and evaluating the implications of the trend. These hazards can combine to elevate the risk of misinterpreting the trend. In contrast, evaluation of multiple trends within a biogeophysical framework can attenuate the risk of misinterpretation. We review and illustrate these hazards and demonstrate the efficacy of an approach using multiple indicators detecting significant trends (MIDST) applied to time series of remote sensing data products.

[Changes in hazardous drinking in Spanish adolescent population in the last decade (2004-2013) using a quantitative and qualitative design].

PubMed

Pérez-Milena, Alejandro; Redondo-Olmedilla, Manuel de Dios; Martínez-Fernández, María Luz; Jiménez-Pulido, Idoia; Mesa-Gallardo, Inmaculada; Leal-Helmling, Francisco Javier

2017-11-01

To determine the changes in hazardous drinking in adolescents in the last decade, as well as their motivations and experiences. Firstly, a descriptive design using a self-report questionnaire, and secondly an explanatory qualitative design, with video recordings of discussion groups with content analysis (coding, triangulation of categories and verification of results). Pupils from an urban High School, administering a questionnaire every 3 years from 2004 to 2013. Purposive sampling was used to elect groups in qualitative design. Homogeneity criteria: education level; heterogeneity criteria: age, gender, and drug use. Questionnaire: age, gender, drug use, and the CAGE test. Interviews: semi-structured on a previous script, evaluating experiences and expectations. Descriptive design: A total of 1,558 questionnaires, age 14.2±0.3years, 50% female. The prevalence of alcohol drinking decreases (13%), but its hazardous use increases (11%; P<.001, χ 2 ). This is associated with being female (P<.01 χ 2 ), higher alcohol consumption (>6 standard drink units weekly; P<.001, ANOVA), during the weekend (56%; P<.01, χ 2 ) and multiple drug use (P<.01, χ 2 ). CAGE questionnaire: 37% ≥1positive response (related to hazardous drinking, P<.05 χ 2 ), 18% ≥2answers. A total of 48 respondents, classified into 4 categories: personal factors (age, gender), social influences (family, friends), consumption standards (accessibility, nightlife), and addiction (risk, multiple drug use). Despite the decrease in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, the increase in the percentage of the hazardous drinking is a public health problem. It is related to being female, binge-drinking, and multiple drug use. Nightlife and social standards are the main reasons given by adolescents, who have no perception of risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Irrigation salinity hazard assessment and risk mapping in the lower Macintyre Valley, Australia.

PubMed

Huang, Jingyi; Prochazka, Melissa J; Triantafilis, John

2016-05-01

In the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, secondary soil salinization occurs due to excessive deep drainage and the presence of shallow saline water tables. In order to understand the cause and best management, soil and vadose zone information is necessary. This type of information has been generated in the Toobeah district but owing to the state border an inconsistent methodology was used. This has led to much confusion from stakeholders who are unable to understand the ambiguity of the results in terms of final overall risk of salinization. In this research, a digital soil mapping method that employs various ancillary data is presented. Firstly, an electromagnetic induction survey using a Geonics EM34 and EM38 was used to characterise soil and vadose zone stratigraphy. From the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) collected, soil sampling locations were selected and with laboratory analysis carried out to determine average (2-12m) clay and EC of a saturated soil-paste extract (ECe). EM34 ECa, land surface parameters derived from a digital elevation model and measured soil data were used to establish multiple linear regression models, which allowed for mapping of various hazard factors, including clay and ECe. EM38 ECa data were calibrated to deep drainage obtained from Salt and Leaching Fraction (SaLF) modelling of soil data. Expert knowledge and indicator kriging were used to determine critical values where the salinity hazard factors were likely to contribute to a shallow saline water table (i.e., clay ≤35%; ECe>2.5dS/m, and deep drainage >100mm/year). This information was combined to produce an overall salinity risk map for the Toobeah district using indicator kriging. The risk map shows potential salinization areas and where detailed information is required and where targeted research can be conducted to monitor soil conditions and water table heights and determine best management strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and multiple gene expression variables in survival analysis of breast cancer: Analysis with the hypertabastic survival model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background We explore the benefits of applying a new proportional hazard model to analyze survival of breast cancer patients. As a parametric model, the hypertabastic survival model offers a closer fit to experimental data than Cox regression, and furthermore provides explicit survival and hazard functions which can be used as additional tools in the survival analysis. In addition, one of our main concerns is utilization of multiple gene expression variables. Our analysis treats the important issue of interaction of different gene signatures in the survival analysis. Methods The hypertabastic proportional hazards model was applied in survival analysis of breast cancer patients. This model was compared, using statistical measures of goodness of fit, with models based on the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model and the parametric log-logistic and Weibull models. The explicit functions for hazard and survival were then used to analyze the dynamic behavior of hazard and survival functions. Results The hypertabastic model provided the best fit among all the models considered. Use of multiple gene expression variables also provided a considerable improvement in the goodness of fit of the model, as compared to use of only one. By utilizing the explicit survival and hazard functions provided by the model, we were able to determine the magnitude of the maximum rate of increase in hazard, and the maximum rate of decrease in survival, as well as the times when these occurred. We explore the influence of each gene expression variable on these extrema. Furthermore, in the cases of continuous gene expression variables, represented by a measure of correlation, we were able to investigate the dynamics with respect to changes in gene expression. Conclusions We observed that use of three different gene signatures in the model provided a greater combined effect and allowed us to assess the relative importance of each in determination of outcome in this data set. These results point to the potential to combine gene signatures to a greater effect in cases where each gene signature represents some distinct aspect of the cancer biology. Furthermore we conclude that the hypertabastic survival models can be an effective survival analysis tool for breast cancer patients. PMID:23241496

The distinction between risk and hazard: understanding and use in stakeholder communication.

PubMed

Scheer, Dirk; Benighaus, Christina; Benighaus, Ludger; Renn, Ortwin; Gold, Stefan; Röder, Bettina; Böl, Gaby-Fleur

2014-07-01

A major issue in all risk communication efforts is the distinction between the terms "risk" and "hazard." The potential to harm a target such as human health or the environment is normally defined as a hazard, whereas risk also encompasses the probability of exposure and the extent of damage. What can be observed again and again in risk communication processes are misunderstandings and communication gaps related to these crucial terms. We asked a sample of 53 experts from public authorities, business and industry, and environmental and consumer organizations in Germany to outline their understanding and use of these terms using both the methods of expert interviews and focus groups. The empirical study made clear that the terms risk and hazard are perceived and used very differently in risk communication depending on the perspective of the stakeholders. Several factors can be identified, such as responsibility for hazard avoidance, economic interest, or a watchdog role. Thus, communication gaps can be reduced to a four-fold problem matrix comprising a semantic, conceptual, strategic, and control problem. The empirical study made clear that risks and hazards are perceived very differently depending on the stakeholders' perspective. Their own worldviews played a major role in their specific use of the two terms hazards and risks in communication. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

How the Reinsurance Industry views the current and future risk landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaldi, A.

2012-12-01

The last decade has witnessed some of the most devastating and expensive natural disasters within the last century. Regardless of where the event occurred and what the hazard might have been, the global insurance and reinsurance industry were active participants in evaluating the events' characteristics as well as providing the financial means for rebuilding the communities affected by these events. The concept of risk transfer from one to many (spreading the risk) is at the very core of the insurers and reinsurers' business. Reinsurers' focus most of their attention on the extreme events including those caused by natural disasters. As such the reinsurance industry must be expert in understanding and quantifying the potential economic and social impact of extreme natural hazard events throughout the world whether they be in the present or possible future. To understand the global risk the reinsurance industry has invested a substantial amount of time and resources into analyzing natural hazard events on a global scale. This requires a firm understanding of the hazard (frequency and severity) and what exposure lies in harm's way (vulnerability). Through the development and use of natural hazard models, claims loss reviews, and research and development the reinsurance industry has an excellent view of the global risks. In this session we will describe how the reinsurance industry models the natural hazard risk and how we view natural hazards in the modern world and our concerns for the future. We will discuss some of the reasons why these events have become increasingly more expensive as well as discussing how we can help reduce our economic susceptibility to these extreme and unpleasant events.

Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthiessen, Peter; Ankley, Gerald T.; Biever, Ronald C.; Bjerregaard, Poul; Borgert, Christopher; Brugger, Kristin; Blankinship, Amy; Chambers, Janice; Coady, Katherine K.; Constantine, Lisa; Dang, Zhichao; Denslow, Nancy D.; Dreier, David; Dungey, Steve; Gray, L. Earl; Gross, Melanie; Guiney, Patrick D.; Hecker, Markus; Holbech, Henrik; Iguchi, Taisen; Kadlec, Sarah; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K.; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Kawashima, Yukio; Kloas, Werner; Krueger, Henry; Kumar, Anu; Lagadic, Laurent; Leopold, Annegaaike; Levine, Steven L.; Maack, Gerd; Marty, Sue; Meador, James P.; Mihaich, Ellen; Odum, Jenny; Ortego, Lisa; Parrott, Joanne L.; Pickford, Daniel; Roberts, Mike; Schaefers, Christoph; Schwarz, Tamar; Solomon, Keith; Verslycke, Tim; Weltje, Lennart; Wheeler, James R.; Williams, Mike; Wolf, Jeffery C.; Yamazaki, Kunihiko

2017-01-01

A SETAC Pellston Workshop® “Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)” was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS—not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk assessment of EDS is scientifically sound and sufficiently reliable and protective of the environment. In the absence of such data, assessment on the basis of hazard is scientifically justified until such time as relevant new information is available.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Survivability Versus Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2014-01-01

Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

A burning problem: social dynamics of disaster risk reduction through wildfire mitigation

Treesearch

Susan Charnley; Melissa R. Poe; Alan A. Ager; Thomas A. Spies; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen

2015-01-01

Disasters result from hazards affecting vulnerable people. Most disasters research by anthropologists focuses on vulnerability; this article focuses on natural hazards. We use the case of wildfire mitigation on United States Forest Service lands in the northwestern United States to examine social, political, and economic variables at multiple scales that influence fire...

Alcohol Misuse Among Recent Latino Immigrants: The Protective Role of Preimmigration Familismo

PubMed Central

Dillon, Frank R.; De La Rosa, Mario; Sastre, Francisco; Ibañez, Gladys

2013-01-01

Familismo in the Latino culture is a value hallmarked by close relations with nuclear and extended family members throughout the life span, with pronounced levels of loyalty, reciprocity, and solidarity. Familismo is posited as health protective against alcohol misuse among Latinos in the United States. This study examines the relative influence of pre- and postimmigration familismo on alcohol use behaviors among recent Latino immigrants while accounting for myriad sociocultural factors (gender, age, documentation status, education, income, marital status, presence of family members in the United States, primary language used in the community, English language proficiency, and time in the United States). Participants included 405 young adults, aged 18 to 34 years, who were primarily of Cuban (50%), Columbian (19%), and Central American (15%) descent. Retrospective assessment of preimmigration familismo occurred during participants’ first 12 months in the United States. Follow-up assessment of alcohol use behaviors occurred during participants’ second year in the United States. Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) path modeling was used to test study hypotheses. Inverse associations were determined between preimmigration familismo and alcohol use quantity and harmful/hazardous alcohol use. Men and participants who reported more proficiency in English, and those living in neighborhoods where English is predominantly spoken, indicated more alcohol use quantity and harmful/hazardous alcohol use. By considering both pre- and postimmigration determinants of alcohol use, findings offer a fuller contextual understanding of the lives of Latino young adult immigrants. Results support the importance of lifelong familismo as a buffer against alcohol misuse in young adulthood. PMID:23276317

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities around the SCS region, the tsunami hazard and risk should be further highlighted in the future.

What can we learn from sediment connectivitiy indicies regarding natural hazard processes in torrent catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmutz, Daria; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

Sediment connectivity is defined as the degree of coupling between sediment sources and sinks in a system and describes the effectiveness of the transfer of sediment from hillslopes into channels and within channels (Bracken et al. 2015). Borselli et al. (2008) developed a connectivity index (IC) based on digital terrain models (DTMs). Cavalli et al. (2013) adapted this index for mountainous catchments. These measures of connectivity provide overall information about connectivity pattern in the catchment, thus the understanding of sediment connectivity can help to improve the hazard analysis in these areas. Considering the location of settlements in the alpine regions, high sediment transfer can pose a threat to villages located nearby torrents or at the debris cones. However, there is still a lack of studies on the linkage between IC and hazardous events with high sediment yield in alpine catchments. In this study, the expressiveness and applicability of IC is tested in relation with hazardous events in several catchments of the Bernese and Pennine Alps (Switzerland). The IC is modelled based on DTMs (resolution 2 m or if available 0.5 m) indicating the surface from the time before and after a documented hazardous event and analysed with respect to changes in connectivity caused by the event. The spatial pattern of connectivity is compared with the observed sediment dynamic during the event using event documentations. In order to validate the IC, a semi-quantitative field connectivity index (FIC) is developed addressing characteristics of the channel, banks and slopes and applied in a selection of the case studies. First analysis shows that the IC is highly sensitive to the resolution and quality of the DTM. Connectivity calculated by the IC is highest along the channel. The general pattern of connectivity is comparable applying the IC for the DTM before and after the event. Range of the connectivity values gained from IC modelling is highly specific for each study area and so are their changes by the events. Whereas some slopes show an increased connectivity, others are less connected or not affected according to the IC. Further results of the comparison between the FIC and the IC and an evaluation of both indices in the context of hazardous events will be presented. REFERENCES Borselli, L., Cassi, P. & Torri, D. 2008: Prolegomena to sediment and flow connectivity in the landscape. A GIS and field numerical assessment. CATENA 75 (3), 268-277. Bracken, L. J., Turnbull, L., Wainwright, J. & Bogaart, P. 2015: Sediment connectivity. A framework for understanding sediment transfer at multiple scales. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 40 (2), 177-188. Cavalli, M., Trevisani, S., Comiti, F. & Marchi, L. 2013: Geomorphometric assessment of spatial sediment connectivity in small Alpine catchments. Geomorphology 188, 31-41.

Trichloroethylene: Mechanistic, epidemiologic and other supporting evidence of carcinogenic hazard.

PubMed

Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Lash, Lawrence H; Kromhout, Hans; Hansen, Johnni; Guyton, Kathryn Z

2014-01-01

The chlorinated solvent trichloroethylene (TCE) is a ubiquitous environmental pollutant. The carcinogenic hazard of TCE was the subject of a 2012 evaluation by a Working Group of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Information on exposures, relevant data from epidemiologic studies, bioassays in experimental animals, and toxicity and mechanism of action studies was used to conclude that TCE is carcinogenic to humans (Group 1). This article summarizes the key evidence forming the scientific bases for the IARC classification. Exposure to TCE from environmental sources (including hazardous waste sites and contaminated water) is common throughout the world. While workplace use of TCE has been declining, occupational exposures remain of concern, especially in developing countries. The strongest human evidence is from studies of occupational TCE exposure and kidney cancer. Positive, although less consistent, associations were reported for liver cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. TCE is carcinogenic at multiple sites in multiple species and strains of experimental animals. The mechanistic evidence includes extensive data on the toxicokinetics and genotoxicity of TCE and its metabolites. Together, available evidence provided a cohesive database supporting the human cancer hazard of TCE, particularly in the kidney. For other target sites of carcinogenicity, mechanistic and other data were found to be more limited. Important sources of susceptibility to TCE toxicity and carcinogenicity were also reviewed by the Working Group. In all, consideration of the multiple evidence streams presented herein informed the IARC conclusions regarding the carcinogenicity of TCE. © 2013.

Trichloroethylene: Mechanistic, Epidemiologic and Other Supporting Evidence of Carcinogenic Hazard

PubMed Central

Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Lash, Lawrence H.; Kromhout, Hans; Hansen, Johnni; Guyton, Kathryn Z.

2013-01-01

The chlorinated solvent trichloroethylene (TCE) is a ubiquitous environmental pollutant. The carcinogenic hazard of TCE was the subject of a 2012 evaluation by a Working Group of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Information on exposures, relevant data from epidemiologic studies, bioassays in experimental animals, and toxicity and mechanism of action studies was used to conclude that TCE is carcinogenic to humans (Group 1). This article summarizes the key evidence forming the scientific bases for the IARC classification. Exposure to TCE from environmental sources (including from hazardous waste sites and contaminated water) is common throughout the world. While workplace use of TCE has been declining, occupational exposures remain of concern, especially in developing countries. Strongest human evidence is from studies of occupational TCE exposure and kidney cancer. Positive, although less consistent, associations were reported for liver cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. TCE is carcinogenic at multiple sites in multiple species and strains of experimental animals. The mechanistic evidence includes extensive data on the toxicokinetics and genotoxicity of TCE and its metabolites. Together, available evidence provided a cohesive database supporting the human cancer hazard of TCE, particularly in the kidney. For other target sites of carcinogenicity, mechanistic and other data were found to be more limited. Important sources of susceptibility to TCE toxicity and carcinogenicity were also reviewed by the Working Group. In all, consideration of the multiple evidence streams presented herein informed the IARC conclusions regarding the carcinogenicity of TCE. PMID:23973663

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, Ting; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas

2013-01-01

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Insights from field observations into controls on flow front speed in submarine sediment flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heerema, C.; Talling, P.; Cartigny, M.; Paull, C. K.; Gwiazda, R.; Clare, M. A.; Parsons, D. R.; Xu, J.; Simmons, S.; Maier, K. L.; Chapplow, N.; Gales, J. A.; McGann, M.; Barry, J.; Lundsten, E. M.; Anderson, K.; O'Reilly, T. C.; Rosenberger, K. J.; Sumner, E. J.; Stacey, C.

2017-12-01

Seafloor avalanches of sediment called turbidity currents are one of the most important processes for moving sediment across our planet. Only rivers carry comparable amounts of sediment across such large areas. Here we present some of the first detailed monitoring of these underwater flows that is being undertaken at a series of test sites. We seek to understand the factors that determine flow front speed, and how that speed varies with distance. This frontal speed is particularly important for predicting flow runout, and how the power of these hazardous flows varies with distance. First, we consider unusually detailed measurements of flow front speed defined by transit times between moorings and other tracked objects placed on the floor of Monterey Canyon offshore California in 2016-17. These measurements are then compared to flow front speeds measured using multiple moorings in Bute Inlet, British Columbia in 2016; and by cable breaks in Gaoping Canyon offshore Taiwan in 2006 and 2009. We seek to understand how flow front velocity is related to seafloor gradient, flow front thickness and density. It appears that the spatial evolution of frontal speed is similar in multiple flows, although their peak frontal velocities vary. Flow front velocity tends to increase rapidly initially before declining rather gradually over tens or even hundreds of kilometres. It has been proposed that submarine flows will exist in one of two states; either eroding and accelerating, or depositing sediment and dissipating. We conclude by discussing the implications of this global compilation of flow front velocities for understanding submarine flow behaviour.

PERMITTING HAZARDOUS WASTE INCINERATORS

EPA Science Inventory

This publication is a compilation of information presented at a seminar series designed to address the issues that affect the issuance of hazardous waste incineration permits and to improve the overall understanding of trial burn testing. pecifically, the document provides guidan...

Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments: Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tillery, Anne C.; Scott, Joe H.

2017-01-01

Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

2018-03-01

The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

Zebrafish (Danio rerio): A Potential Model for Toxinological Studies.

PubMed

Vargas, Rafael Antonio; Sarmiento, Karen; Vásquez, Isabel Cristina

2015-10-01

Zebrafish are an emerging basic biomedical research model that has multiple advantages compared with other research models. Given that biotoxins, such as toxins, poisons, and venoms, represent health hazards to animals and humans, a low-cost biological model that is highly sensitive to biotoxins is useful to understand the damage caused by such agents and to develop biological tests to prevent and reduce the risk of poisoning in potential cases of bioterrorism or food contamination. In this article, a narrative review of the general aspects of zebrafish as a model in basic biomedical research and various studies in the field of toxinology that have used zebrafish as a biological model are presented. This information will provide useful material to beginner students and researchers who are interested in developing toxinological studies with the zebrafish model.

Inter-organizational network in Indonesia during disasters: Examples and research agenda on disaster management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisri, M. B. F.

2017-02-01

Indonesia is facing various type of disaster risks, each with its own nature (sudden or slow onset, purely natural or man-made) and coverage of affected areas. Whereas science, technology and engineering intervention requires different modalities for each hazard, little has been known on whether the institutional setup and organizations involvement requires a different or similar types of intervention. Under a decentralized disaster management system, potential involvement of international organizations in response and growing diversified organizations involved in responding to disaster, it is important to understand the nature of inter-organizational network during various type of disasters in Indonesia. This paper is mixture of in-depth literature review and multiple case studies on utilization of social network analysis (SNA) in modelling inter-organizational network during various disasters in Indonesia.

Japanese Consumer Perceptions of Genetically Modified Food: Findings From an International Comparative Study.

PubMed

Komoto, Keiko; Okamoto, Sawako; Hamada, Miki; Obana, Naoya; Samori, Mami; Imamura, Tomoaki

2016-08-29

Reports of food-related incidents, such as cows infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (2001) and the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011), engendered significant fear among Japanese consumers and led to multiple farmer suicides, even when no actual health damage occurred. The growing availability of genetically modified (GM) food is occurring against this backdrop of concern about food safety. Consumers need information to assess risk and make informed purchasing decisions. However, we lack a clear picture of Japanese consumer perceptions of GM food. This study aims to understand Japanese consumer perceptions of GM food for risk communication. Consumer perceptions of GM food were compared among 4 nations. A Web-based survey was conducted in Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Participants were asked about demographics, fear of health hazards, resistance to GM and breeding-improved products, perception of GM technology and products, and willingness to pay. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted, as were t tests on dichotomous variables, and 1-way analysis of variance and post hoc tests. Of 1812 individuals who agreed to participate, 1705 (94%) responded: 457 from Japan and 416 each from France, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The male/female and age group ratios were all about even. Some resistance to GM food was seen in all countries in this study. France showed the strongest resistance (P<.001), followed by Japan, which had stronger resistance than the United States and the United Kingdom (P<.001). Overall, females, people in their 60s and older, and those without higher education showed the greatest resistance to GM food. Japan showed stronger fear of food hazards than other nations (P<.001, odds ratio=2.408, CI: 1.614-3.594); Japanese and French respondents showed the strongest fear of hazards from GM food (P<.001). Regarding perceptions of GM technology and products, consumers in nations other than Japan would accept GM food if it were appropriately explained, they were provided with scientific data supporting its safety, and they understood that all food carries some risk. However, Japanese consumers tended to accept GM technology but rejected its application to food (P<.001). Of those willing to purchase GM food, consumers in Japan required a discount of 30% compared with about 20% in other nations. All consumers in our study showed resistance to GM food. Although no health hazards are known, respondents in Japan and France strongly recognized GM food as a health risk. Price discounts of 30% and GM technology may be communication cues to start discussions about GM food among Japanese consumers. Although education-only risk communication generally is not effective, such an approach may work in Japan to help consumers better understand GM technology and, eventually, GM food. The gap between accepting GM technology and rejecting its application to food should be explored further.

Japanese Consumer Perceptions of Genetically Modified Food: Findings From an International Comparative Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Reports of food-related incidents, such as cows infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (2001) and the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011), engendered significant fear among Japanese consumers and led to multiple farmer suicides, even when no actual health damage occurred. The growing availability of genetically modified (GM) food is occurring against this backdrop of concern about food safety. Consumers need information to assess risk and make informed purchasing decisions. However, we lack a clear picture of Japanese consumer perceptions of GM food. Objective This study aims to understand Japanese consumer perceptions of GM food for risk communication. Consumer perceptions of GM food were compared among 4 nations. Methods A Web-based survey was conducted in Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Participants were asked about demographics, fear of health hazards, resistance to GM and breeding-improved products, perception of GM technology and products, and willingness to pay. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted, as were t tests on dichotomous variables, and 1-way analysis of variance and post hoc tests. Results Of 1812 individuals who agreed to participate, 1705 (94%) responded: 457 from Japan and 416 each from France, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The male/female and age group ratios were all about even. Some resistance to GM food was seen in all countries in this study. France showed the strongest resistance (P<.001), followed by Japan, which had stronger resistance than the United States and the United Kingdom (P<.001). Overall, females, people in their 60s and older, and those without higher education showed the greatest resistance to GM food. Japan showed stronger fear of food hazards than other nations (P<.001, odds ratio=2.408, CI: 1.614-3.594); Japanese and French respondents showed the strongest fear of hazards from GM food (P<.001). Regarding perceptions of GM technology and products, consumers in nations other than Japan would accept GM food if it were appropriately explained, they were provided with scientific data supporting its safety, and they understood that all food carries some risk. However, Japanese consumers tended to accept GM technology but rejected its application to food (P<.001). Of those willing to purchase GM food, consumers in Japan required a discount of 30% compared with about 20% in other nations. Conclusion All consumers in our study showed resistance to GM food. Although no health hazards are known, respondents in Japan and France strongly recognized GM food as a health risk. Price discounts of 30% and GM technology may be communication cues to start discussions about GM food among Japanese consumers. Although education-only risk communication generally is not effective, such an approach may work in Japan to help consumers better understand GM technology and, eventually, GM food. The gap between accepting GM technology and rejecting its application to food should be explored further. PMID:27573588

Pareto frontier analyses based decision making tool for transportation of hazardous waste.

PubMed

Das, Arup; Mazumder, T N; Gupta, A K

2012-08-15

Transportation of hazardous wastes through a region poses immense threat on the development along its road network. The risk to the population, exposed to such activities, has been documented in the past. However, a comprehensive framework for routing hazardous wastes has often been overlooked. A regional Hazardous Waste Management scheme should incorporate a comprehensive framework for hazardous waste transportation. This framework would incorporate the various stakeholders involved in decision making. Hence, a multi-objective approach is required to safeguard the interest of all the concerned stakeholders. The objective of this study is to design a methodology for routing of hazardous wastes between the generating units and the disposal facilities through a capacity constrained network. The proposed methodology uses posteriori method with multi-objective approach to find non-dominated solutions for the system consisting of multiple origins and destinations. A case study of transportation of hazardous wastes in Kolkata Metropolitan Area has also been provided to elucidate the methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nanoparticles, human health hazard and regulation

PubMed Central

Seaton, Anthony; Tran, Lang; Aitken, Robert; Donaldson, Kenneth

2010-01-01

New developments in technology usually entail some hazard as well as advantage to a society. Hazard of a material translates into risk by exposure of humans and/or their environment to the agent in question, and risk is reduced by control of exposure, usually guided by regulation based on understanding of the mechanisms of harm. We illustrate risks relating to the causation of diseases associated with exposure to aerosols of combustion particles and asbestos, leading to paradigms of particle toxicity, and discuss analogies with potential exposure to manufactured nanoparticles (NPs). We review the current understanding of the hazard of NPs derived from the new science of nanotoxicology and the limited research to date into human exposure to these particles. We identify gaps in knowledge relating to the properties of NPs that might determine toxicity and in understanding the most appropriate ways both to measure this in the laboratory and to assess it in the workplace. Nevertheless, we point out that physical principles governing the behaviour of such particles allow determination of practical methods of protecting those potentially exposed. Finally, we discuss the early steps towards regulation and the difficulties facing regulators in controlling potentially harmful exposures in the absence of sufficient scientific evidence. PMID:19726441

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Thomas C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

2014-01-01

Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

USING DOSE ADDITION TO ESTIMATE CUMULATIVE RISKS FROM EXPOSURES TO MULTIPLE CHEMICALS

EPA Science Inventory

The Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) of 1996 requires the EPA to consider the cumulative risk from exposure to multiple chemicals that have a common mechanism of toxicity. Three methods, hazard index (HI), point-of-departure index (PODI), and toxicity equivalence factor (TEF), ...

Automated statistical matching of multiple tephra records exemplified using five long maar sequences younger than 75 ka, Auckland, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Rebecca M.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Jones, Geoff

2014-09-01

Detailed tephrochronologies are built to underpin probabilistic volcanic hazard forecasting, and to understand the dynamics and history of diverse geomorphic, climatic, soil-forming and environmental processes. Complicating factors include highly variable tephra distribution over time; difficulty in correlating tephras from site to site based on physical and chemical properties; and uncertain age determinations. Multiple sites permit construction of more accurate composite tephra records, but correctly merging individual site records by recognizing common events and site-specific gaps is complex. We present an automated procedure for matching tephra sequences between multiple deposition sites using stochastic local optimization techniques. If individual tephra age determinations are not significantly different between sites, they are matched and a more precise age is assigned. Known stratigraphy and mineralogical or geochemical compositions are used to constrain tephra matches. We apply this method to match tephra records from five long sediment cores (≤ 75 cal ka BP) in Auckland, New Zealand. Sediments at these sites preserve basaltic tephras from local eruptions of the Auckland Volcanic Field as well as distal rhyolitic and andesitic tephras from Okataina, Taupo, Egmont, Tongariro, and Tuhua (Mayor Island) volcanic centers. The new correlated record compiled is statistically more likely than previously published arrangements from this area.

[Health hazards in childhood obesity: Evidence based on Chinese population].

PubMed

Ye, Peiyu; Chen, Fangfang; Mi, Jie

2016-01-01

Childhood obesity has become a critical issue in public health area. We searched Wanfang Data and PubMed databases for published studies on health hazards of childhood obesity in China during 2000-2015. From the evidence of the Chinese population studies, we know childhood obesity brings not only cardiovascular, endocrine and respiratory system health hazards, but also other health hazards to liver, moving skeleton, psychological behavior and cognition intelligence, et al. Only to understand the health hazards of childhood obesity, and put the key preventable period of chronic diseases forward to childhood, can pandemic of chronic diseases be controlled from the sources.

Explosive hazard detection using MIMO forward-looking ground penetrating radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Darren; Ho, K. C.; Stone, Kevin; Keller, James M.; Popescu, Mihail; Anderson, Derek T.; Luke, Robert H.; Burns, Brian

2015-05-01

This paper proposes a machine learning algorithm for subsurface object detection on multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) forward-looking ground-penetrating radar (FLGPR). By detecting hazards using FLGPR, standoff distances of up to tens of meters can be acquired, but this is at the degradation of performance due to high false alarm rates. The proposed system utilizes an anomaly detection prescreener to identify potential object locations. Alarm locations have multiple one-dimensional (ML) spectral features, two-dimensional (2D) spectral features, and log-Gabor statistic features extracted. The ability of these features to reduce the number of false alarms and increase the probability of detection is evaluated for both co-polarizations present in the Akela MIMO array. Classification is performed by a Support Vector Machine (SVM) with lane-based cross-validation for training and testing. Class imbalance and optimized SVM kernel parameters are considered during classifier training.

16 CFR 1500.17 - Banned hazardous substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...) Voluntary standard. (1) One alternative to the tip-angle requirement that the Commission considered is to... Multiple Shot requires that large multiple-tube devices not tip over (except as the result of the last shot) when shot on a 2-inch thick medium-density foam pad. The Commission cannot conclude that AFSL's...

16 CFR 1500.17 - Banned hazardous substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...) Voluntary standard. (1) One alternative to the tip-angle requirement that the Commission considered is to... Multiple Shot requires that large multiple-tube devices not tip over (except as the result of the last shot) when shot on a 2-inch thick medium-density foam pad. The Commission cannot conclude that AFSL's...

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

Natural hazards science strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2012-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Adjusted variable plots for Cox's proportional hazards regression model.

PubMed

Hall, C B; Zeger, S L; Bandeen-Roche, K J

1996-01-01

Adjusted variable plots are useful in linear regression for outlier detection and for qualitative evaluation of the fit of a model. In this paper, we extend adjusted variable plots to Cox's proportional hazards model for possibly censored survival data. We propose three different plots: a risk level adjusted variable (RLAV) plot in which each observation in each risk set appears, a subject level adjusted variable (SLAV) plot in which each subject is represented by one point, and an event level adjusted variable (ELAV) plot in which the entire risk set at each failure event is represented by a single point. The latter two plots are derived from the RLAV by combining multiple points. In each point, the regression coefficient and standard error from a Cox proportional hazards regression is obtained by a simple linear regression through the origin fit to the coordinates of the pictured points. The plots are illustrated with a reanalysis of a dataset of 65 patients with multiple myeloma.

Preliminary Investigation of Impact on Multiple-Sheet Structures and an Evaluation of the Meteoroid Hazard to Space Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nysmith, C. Robert; Summers, James L.

1961-01-01

Small pyrex glass spheres, representative of stoney meteoroids, were fired into 2024-T3 aluminum alclad multiple-sheet structures at velocities to 11,000 feet per second to evaluate the effectiveness of multisheet hull construction as a means of increasing the resistance of a spacecraft to meteoroid penetrations. The results of these tests indicate that increasing the number of sheets in a structure while keeping the total sheet thickness constant and increasing the spacing between sheets both tend to increase the penetration resistance of a structure of constant weight per unit area. In addition, filling the space between the sheets with a light filler material was found to substantially increase structure penetration resistance with a small increase in weight. An evaluation of the meteoroid hazard to space vehicles is presented in the form of an illustrative-example for two specific lunar mission vehicles, a single-sheet, monocoque hull vehicle and a glass-wool filled, double-sheet hull vehicle. The evaluation is presented in terms of the "best" and the "worst" conditions that might be expected as determined from astronomical and satellite measurements, high-speed impact data, and hypothesized meteoroid structures and compositions. It was observed that the vehicle flight time without penetration can be increased significantly by use of multiple-sheet rather than single-sheet hull construction with no increase in hull weight. Nevertheless, it is evident that a meteoroid hazard exists, even for the vehicle with the selected multiple-sheet hull.

Integrating Social Science, Environmental Science, and Engineering to Understand Vulnerability and Resilience to Environmental Hazards in the Bengal Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Ackerly, B.; Goodbred, S. L.

2013-12-01

In populated delta environments, it is impossible to separate human and natural systems. Human activities change the landscape by altering the dynamics of water and sediment and in return, humans themselves are affected by the natural and anthropogenic changes to the landscape. Such interactions can also have significant impacts on the ecology and natural resources of a delta system, affecting local and regional food supply, livelihoods, and economies, particularly in developing nations. Successful adaptation to environmental change in a strongly coupled human-natural system, such as the Bengal delta, requires understanding how the physical environment and the changing social, political, and economic conditions of people's lives interact. Research on human-delta interactions has largely focused on macro-scale effects from major dams, water diversions, and catchment-scale land use; but at the smaller scale of households and communities, decisions, actions, and outcomes may occur abruptly and have significant local impacts (positive or negative). Southwest Bangladesh experiences profound environmental problems at the local human-landscape interface, including groundwater salinity, soil fertility, conflicting land-use practices, management of engineering structures, and declining land-surface elevations. The impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise, especially with respect to population migration, receive great attention and concern, but neither sea level rise nor migration occurs against a background of static physical or human environments. For example, changing land use (e.g., building embankments, which affect drainage, sediment transport, and the evolution of tidal channels; and the transformation of rice fields to shrimp aquaculture, which affects soil chemistry, labor markets, river ecology, and possibly the integrity of embankments) can significantly change the impact that sea level rise will have on flood hazards and the resulting effect on people living on the delta. Assessing the impacts of climate change and other environmental stresses on delta populations and designing effective responses will require understanding interactions between the physical and human environments at multiple scales. As part of a multidisciplinary research project drawing on sedimentology, hydrology, remote-sensing, engineering, political science, sociology, psychology, and anthropology we are studying the interactions of human and natural systems in coastal Bangladesh to understand conditions that contribute to vulnerability and resilience at both the household and the community level. Building on Elinor Ostrom's socioecological systems approach, we have developed a theoretical framework for studying vulnerability and resilience when coupled human-natural systems are subject to significant changes and exogenous forcings. We will report on this framework using examples of successful and unsuccessful interventions to manage or mitigate exposure to environmental hazards, and we will also report on progress toward using our framework to identify and understand factors that contribute to the success or failure of such projects.

Understanding and managing the movements of hazardous material shipments through Texas population centers.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

Every day almost a million shipments of hazardous materials move safely and securely along our nations transportation system, via any combination of modes. Only a small fraction of total shipments interrupt their planned journey due to an incident...

Understanding driver performance variability and perception of risk : driver hazard perception research plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The objectives of this research project were to develop a comprehensive and clearly defined research program to define, : measure, and quantify driver perception of hazards as it relates to highway design, operations, and safety, standards This was :...

Developmental Neurotoxicity Testing: A Path Forward

EPA Science Inventory

Great progress has been made over the past 40 years in understanding the hazards of exposure to a small number of developmental neurotoxicants. Lead, PCBs, and methylmercury are all good examples of science-based approaches to characterizing the hazard to the developing nervous s...

Dark matter as a cancer hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chashchina, Olga; Silagadze, Zurab

2016-07-01

We comment on the paper ;Dark matter collisions with the human body; by K. Freese and C. Savage (2012) [1] and describe a dark matter model for which the results of the previous paper do not quite apply. Within this mirror dark matter model, potentially hazardous objects, mirror micrometeorites, can exist and may lead to diseases triggered by multiple mutations, such as cancer, though with very low probability.

The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Zschau, Jochen; Gasparini, Paolo

2014-05-01

Recent major natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident, have raised awareness of the frequent and potentially far-reaching interconnections between natural hazards. Such interactions occur at the hazard level, where an initial hazard may trigger other events (e.g., an earthquake triggering a tsunami) or several events may occur concurrently (or nearly so), e.g., severe weather around the same time as an earthquake. Interactions also occur at the vulnerability level, where the initial event may make the affected community more susceptible to the negative consequences of another event (e.g., an earthquake weakens buildings, which are then damaged further by windstorms). There is also a temporal element involved, where changes in exposure may alter the total risk to a given area. In short, there is the likelihood that the total risk estimated when considering multiple hazard and risks and their interactions is greater than the sum of their individual parts. It is with these issues in mind that the European Commission, under their FP7 program, supported the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project (10.2010 to 12.2013). MATRIX set out to tackle multiple natural hazards (i.e., those of concern to Europe, namely earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, tsunamis, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding) and risks within a common theoretical framework. The MATRIX work plan proceeded from an assessment of single-type risk methodologies (including how uncertainties should be treated), cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and an assessment of how the multi-hazard and risk viewpoint may be integrated into current decision making and risk mitigation programs, considering the existing single-hazard and risk focus. Three test sites were considered during the project: Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies. In addition, a software platform, the MATRIX-Common IT sYstem (MATRIX-CITY), was developed to allow the evaluation of characteristic multi-hazard and risk scenarios in comparison to single-type analyses. This presentation therefore outlines the more significant outcomes of the project, in particular those dealing with the harmonization of single-type hazards, cascade event analysis, time-dependent vulnerability changes and the response of the disaster management community to the MATRIX point of view.

Automated Purgatoid Identification: Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Steven

2011-01-01

Driving on Mars is hazardous: technical problems and unforeseen natural hazards can end a mission quickly at the worst, or result in long delays at best. This project is focused on helping to mitigate hazards posed to rovers by purgatoids: small (less than 1 m high, less than 10 m wide), ripple-like eolian bedforms commonly found scattered across the Meridiani Planum region of Mars. Due to the poorly consolidated nature of purgatoids and multiple past episodes of rovers getting stuck in them, identification and avoidance of these eolian bedforms is an important feature of rover path planning (NASA, 2011).

Social Uptake of Scientific Understanding of Seismic Hazard in Sumatra and Cascadia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shannon, R.; McCloskey, J.; Guyer, C.; McDowell, S.; Steacy, S.

2007-12-01

The importance of science within hazard mitigation cannot be underestimated. Robust mitigation polices rely strongly on a sound understanding of the science underlying potential natural disasters and the transference of that knowledge from the scientific community to the general public via governments and policy makers. We aim to investigate how and why the public's knowledge, perceptions, response, adjustments and values towards science have changed throughout two decades of research conducted in areas along and adjacent to the Sumatran and Cascadia subduction zones. We will focus on two countries subject to the same potential hazard, but which encompass starkly contrasting political, economic, social and environmental settings. The transfer of scientific knowledge into the public/ social arena is a complex process, the success of which is reflected in a community's ability to withstand large scale devastating events. Although no one could have foreseen the magnitude of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, the social devastation generated underscored the stark absence of mitigation measures in the nations most heavily affected. It furthermore emphasized the need for the design and implementation of disaster preparedness measures. Survey of existing literature has already established timelines for major events and public policy changes in the case study areas. Clear evidence exists of the link between scientific knowledge and its subsequent translation into public policy, particularly in the Cascadia context. The initiation of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program following the Cape Mendocino earthquake in 1992 embodies this link. Despite a series of environmental disasters with recorded widespread fatalities dating back to the mid 1900s and a heightened impetus for scientific research into tsunami/ earthquake hazard following the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, the translation of science into the public realm is not widely obvious in the Sumatran context. This research aims to further investigate how the enhanced understanding of earthquake and tsunami hazards is being used to direct hazard mitigation strategies and enables direct comparison with the scientific and public policy developments in Cascadia.

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

Predictors of pharmacological treatment outcomes with atomoxetine or methylphenidate in patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder from China, Egypt, Lebanon, Russian Federation, Taiwan, and United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Treuer, T; Feng, Q; Desaiah, D; Altin, M; Wu, S; El-Shafei, A; Serebryakova, E; Gado, M; Faries, D

2014-09-01

The reduced availability of data from non-Western countries limits our ability to understand attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) treatment outcomes, specifically, adherence and persistence of ADHD in children and adolescents. This analysis assessed predictors of treatment outcomes in a non-Western cohort of patients with ADHD treated with atomoxetine or methylphenidate. Data from a 12-month, prospective, observational study in outpatients aged 6-17 years treated with atomoxetine (N = 234) or methylphenidate (N = 221) were analysed post hoc to determine potential predictors of treatment outcomes. Participating countries included the Russian Federation, China, Taiwan, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Lebanon. Factors associated with remission were analysed with stepwise multiple logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART). Cox proportional hazards models with propensity score adjustment assessed differences in atomoxetine persistence among initial-dose cohorts. In patients treated with atomoxetine who had available dosing information (N = 134), Cox proportional hazards revealed lower (< 0.5 mg/kg) initial dose was significantly associated with shorter medication persistence (p < 0.01). multiple logistic regression analysis revealed greater rates of remission for atomoxetine-treated patients were associated with age (older), country (United Arab Emirates) and gender (female) (all p < 0.05). CART analysis confirmed older age and lack of specific phobias were associated with greater remission rates. For methylphenidate, greater baseline weight (highly correlated with the age factor found for atomoxetine) and prior atomoxetine use were associated with greater remission rates. These findings may help clinicians assess factors upon initiation of ADHD treatment to improve course prediction, proper dosing and treatment adherence and persistence. Observational study, therefore no registration. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent advances in occupational and environmental health hazards of workers exposed to gasoline compounds.

PubMed

Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Asuquo, Asuquo E

2017-02-21

The impact of health and environmental hazards, associated with the constituents of gasoline, on occupationally exposed workers has been recorded over the past few decades. However, the scientific literature on their pathogenic potential remains incomplete, which could affect the current understanding of the associated health risks. This review provides current information based on recently improved research techniques to evaluate gasoline toxicity profiles for humans. Our current knowledge provides insight into the intricate mechanism of gasoline-induced adverse effects, including the formation of reactive metabolites via bio-activation and subsequent generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and oxidative stress, which are involved in multiple mechanisms that are central to the aetiology of gasoline-induced toxicity. These mechanisms include covalent binding to deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), leading to oxidative damage, tumor-suppression gene activity, and activation of pro-oncogenes. Furthermore, it results in induction of autoimmunity and local inflammatory responses, disruption of multiple neurotransmitters and immune cell function, derangement of various enzyme activities (e.g., sodiumpotassium adenosine triphosphate (Na+/K+/ATPase) activity, cytochrome P450 (CYP450), nitric oxide synthase (NOS), antioxidant enzyme activities, etc.), conjugation of bile, and non-specific cell membrane interaction, leading to damage of the membrane lipid bilayer and proteins. Available data suggests that exposure to gasoline or gasoline constituents have the potential to cause different types of illnesses. The data highlights the need to maintain safety measures via suitable research, medical surveillance, regulatory control, life style modification, early detection, and intervention to minimize exposure and manage suspected cases. They also present novel opportunities to design and develop effective therapeutic strategies against gasoline-induced detrimental effects. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2017;30(1):1-26. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Physical modeling of long-wave run-up mitigation using submerged breakwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yu-Ting; Wu, Yun-Ta; Hwung, Hwung-Hweng; Yang, Ray-Yeng

2016-04-01

Natural hazard due to tsunami inundation inland has been viewed as a crucial issue for coastal engineering community. The 2004 India Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami were caused by mega scale earthquakes that brought tremendous catastrophe in the disaster regions. It is thus of great importance to develop innovative approach to achieve the reduction and mitigation of tsunami hazards. In this study, new experiments have been carried out in a laboratory-scale to investigate the physical process of long-wave through submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope. Solitary-wave is employed to represent the characteristic of long-wave with infinite wavelength and wave period. Our goal is twofold. First of all, through changing the positions of single breakwater and multiple breakwaters upon a mild slope, the optimal locations of breakwaters can be pointed out by means of maximum run-up reduction. Secondly, through using a state-of-the-art measuring technique Bubble Image Velocimetry, which features non-intrusive and image-based measurement, the wave kinematics in the highly aerated region due to solitary-wave shoaling, breaking and uprush can be quantitated. Therefore, the mitigation of long-wave due to the construction of submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope can be evaluated not only for imaging run-up and run-down characteristics but also for measuring turbulent velocity fields due to breaking wave. Although we understand the most devastating tsunami hazards cannot be fully mitigated with impossibility, this study is to provide quantitated information on what kind of artificial coastal structure that can withstand which level of wave loads.

Visual Attention for Solving Multiple-Choice Science Problem: An Eye-Tracking Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Meng-Jung; Hou, Huei-Tse; Lai, Meng-Lung; Liu, Wan-Yi; Yang, Fang-Ying

2012-01-01

This study employed an eye-tracking technique to examine students' visual attention when solving a multiple-choice science problem. Six university students participated in a problem-solving task to predict occurrences of landslide hazards from four images representing four combinations of four factors. Participants' responses and visual attention…

16 CFR § 1500.17 - Banned hazardous substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

...) Voluntary standard. (1) One alternative to the tip-angle requirement that the Commission considered is to... Multiple Shot requires that large multiple-tube devices not tip over (except as the result of the last shot) when shot on a 2-inch thick medium-density foam pad. The Commission cannot conclude that AFSL's...

AGU:Comments Requested on Natural Hazards Position Statement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2004-11-01

Natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, meteors, space weather, tornadoes, volcanoes, and other geophysical phenomena) are an integral component of our dynamic planet. These can have disastrous effects on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. By understanding how and where hazards occur, what causes them, and what circumstances increase their severity, we can develop effective strategies to reduce their impact. In practice, mitigating hazards requires addressing issues such as real-time monitoring and prediction, emergency preparedness, public education and awareness, post-disaster recovery, engineering, construction practices, land use, and building codes. Coordinated approaches involving scientists, engineers, policy makers, builders, lenders, insurers, news media, educators, relief organizations, and the public are therefore essential to reducing the adverse effects of natural hazards.

Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

PubMed

Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

2017-07-01

Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

A Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anita, G.; Selva, J.; Laura, S.

2011-12-01

We develop a comprehensive and total probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TotPTHA), in which many different possible source types concur to the definition of the total tsunami hazard at given target sites. In a multi-hazard and multi-risk perspective, such an innovative approach allows, in principle, to consider all possible tsunamigenic sources, from seismic events, to slides, asteroids, volcanic eruptions, etc. In this respect, we also formally introduce and discuss the treatment of interaction/cascade effects in the TotPTHA analysis. We demonstrate how external triggering events may induce significant temporary variations in the tsunami hazard. Because of this, such effects should always be considered, at least in short-term applications, to obtain unbiased analyses. Finally, we prove the feasibility of the TotPTHA and of the treatment of interaction/cascade effects by applying this methodology to an ideal region with realistic characteristics (Neverland).

Comparative hazard analysis of processes leading to remarkable flash floods (France, 1930-1999)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, M.; Lang, M.; Vinet, F.; Cœur, D.

2016-10-01

Flash flood events are responsible for large economic losses and lead to fatalities every year in France. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean and oversea territories/departments of France, characterized by extreme hydro-climatological features and with a large part of the population exposed to flood risks. The recurrence of remarkable flash flood events, associated with high hazard intensity, significant damage and socio-political consequences, therefore raises several issues for authorities and risk management policies. This study aims to improve our understanding of the hazard analysis process in the case of four remarkable flood events: March 1930, October 1940, January 1980 and November 1999. Firstly, we present the methodology used to define the remarkability score of a flood event. Then, to identify the factors leading to a remarkable flood event, we explore the main parameters of the hazard analysis process, such as the meteorological triggering conditions, the return period of the rainfall and peak discharge, as well as some additional factors (initial catchment state, flood chronology, cascade effects, etc.). The results contribute to understanding the complexity of the processes leading to flood hazard and highlight the importance for risk managers of taking additional factors into account.

Utility of aeromagnetic studies for mapping of potentially active faults in two forearc basins: Puget Sound, Washington, and Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saltus, R.W.; Blakely, R.J.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Wells, R.E.

2005-01-01

High-resolution aeromagnetic surveys over forearc basins can detect faults and folds in weakly magnetized sediments, thus providing geologic constraints on tectonic evolution and improved understanding of seismic hazards in convergent-margin settings. Puget Sound, Washington, and Cook Inlet, Alaska, provide two case histories. In each lowland region, shallow-source magnetic anomalies are related to active folds and/or faults. Mapping these structures is critical for understanding seismic hazards that face the urban regions of Seattle, Washington, and Anchorage, Alaska. Similarities in aeromagnetic anomaly patterns and magnetic stratigraphy between the two regions suggest that we can expect the aeromagnetic method to yield useful structural information that may contribute to earth-hazard and energy resource investigations in other forearc basins.

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Fast Optical Hazard Detection for Planetary Rovers Using Multiple Spot Laser Triangulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthies, L.; Balch, T.; Wilcox, B.

1997-01-01

A new laser-based optical sensor system that provides hazard detection for planetary rovers is presented. It is anticipated that the sensor can support safe travel at speeds up to 6cm/second for large (1m) rovers in full sunlight on Earth or Mars. The system overcomes limitations in an older design that require image differencing ot detect a laser stripe in full sun.

What's Shaking?!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Janice L.; Smith, Diane; Corbat, Josh; Minshew, Lana; Madlangbayan, Melissa

2016-01-01

Direct experience is a powerful learning and teaching tool. However, when trying to teach students about natural hazards such as earthquakes, direct experience is not the best idea. Depending on location, it might be difficult to help young students understand the impact of natural hazards on their lives. Students will naturally find it…

Overview of the preparation and use of an OV-10 aircraft for wake vortex hazards flight experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuever, Robert A.; Stewart, Eric C.; Rivers, Robert A.

1995-01-01

An overview is presented of the development, use, and current flight-test status of a highly instrumented North American Rockwell OV-10A Bronco as a wake-vortex-hazards research aircraft. A description of the operational requirements and measurements criteria, the resulting instrumentation systems and aircraft modifications, system-calibration and research flights completed to date, and current flight status are included. These experiments are being conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as part of an effort to provide the technology to safely improve the capacity of the nation's air transportation system and specifically to provide key data in understanding and predicting wake vortex decay, transport characteristics, and the dynamics of encountering wake turbulence. The OV-10A performs several roles including meteorological measurements platform, wake-decay quantifier, and trajectory-quantifier for wake encounters. Extensive research instrumentation systems include multiple airdata sensors, video cameras with cockpit displays, aircraft state and control-position measurements, inertial aircraft-position measurements, meteorological measurements, and an on-board personal computer for real-time processing and cockpit display of research data. To date, several of the preliminary system check flights and two meteorological-measurements deployments have been completed. Several wake encounter and wake-decay-measurements flights are planned for the fall of 1995.

Recent Advances in the GLIMS Glacier Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raup, Bruce; Cogley, Graham; Zemp, Michael; Glaus, Ladina

2017-04-01

Glaciers are shrinking almost without exception. Glacier losses have impacts on local water availability and hazards, and contribute to sea level rise. To understand these impacts and the processes behind them, it is crucial to monitor glaciers through time by mapping their areal extent, changes in volume, elevation distribution, snow lines, ice flow velocities, and changes to associated water bodies. The glacier database of the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) initiative is the only multi-temporal glacier database capable of tracking all these glacier measurements and providing them to the scientific community and broader public. Here we present recent results in 1) expansion of the geographic and temporal coverage of the GLIMS Glacier Database by drawing on the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) and other new data sets; 2) improved tools for visualizing and downloading GLIMS data in a choice of formats and data models; and 3) a new data model for handling multiple glacier records through time while avoiding double-counting of glacier number or area. The result of this work is a more complete glacier data repository that shows not only the current state of glaciers on Earth, but how they have changed in recent decades. The database is useful for tracking changes in water resources, hazards, and mass budgets of the world's glaciers.

Robustness and Recovery of Lifeline Infrastructure and Ecosystem Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, U.; Ganguly, A. R.

2015-12-01

Disruptive events, both natural and man-made, can have widespread impacts on both natural systems and lifeline infrastructure networks leading to the loss of biodiversity and essential functionality, respectively. Projected sea-level rise and climate change can further increase the frequency and severity of large-scale floods on urban-coastal megacities. Nevertheless, Failure in infrastructure systems can trigger cascading impacts on dependent ecosystems, and vice-versa. An important consideration in the behavior of the isolated networks and inter-connected networks following disruptive events is their resilience, or the ability of the network to "bounce back" to a pre-disaster state. Conventional risk analysis and subsequent risk management frameworks have focused on identifying the components' vulnerability and strengthening of the isolated components to withstand these disruptions. But high interconnectedness of these systems, and evolving nature of hazards, particularly in the context of climate extremes, make the component level analysis unrealistic. In this study, we discuss the complex network-based resilience framework to understand fragility and recovery strategies for infrastructure systems impacted by climate-related hazards. We extend the proposed framework to assess the response of ecological networks to multiple species loss and design the restoration management framework to identify the most efficient restoration sequence of species, which can potentially lead to disproportionate gains in biodiversity.

The environmental and medical geochemistry of potentially hazardous materials produced by disasters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Morman, Suzette A.; Meeker, G.P.; Hoefen, Todd M.; Hageman, Philip L.; Wolf, Ruth E.

2014-01-01

Many natural or human-caused disasters release potentially hazardous materials (HM) that may pose threats to the environment and health of exposed humans, wildlife, and livestock. This chapter summarizes the environmentally and toxicologically significant physical, mineralogical, and geochemical characteristics of materials produced by a wide variety of recent disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, hurricanes and extreme storms, spills of mining/mineral-processing wastes or coal extraction by-products, and the 2001 attacks on and collapse of the World Trade Center towers. In describing these characteristics, this chapter also illustrates the important roles that geochemists and other earth scientists can play in environmental disaster response and preparedness. In addition to characterizing in detail the physical, chemical, and microbial makeup of HM generated by the disasters, these roles also include (1) identifying and discriminating potential multiple sources of the materials; (2) monitoring, mapping, and modeling dispersal and evolution of the materials in the environment; (3) understanding how the materials are modified by environmental processes; (4) identifying key characteristics and processes that influence the materials' toxicity to exposed humans and ecosystems; (5) estimating shifts away from predisaster environmental baseline conditions; and (6) using geochemical insights learned from past disasters to help estimate, prepare for, and increase societal resilience to the environmental and related health impacts of future disasters.

Informing Selection of Nanomaterial Concentrations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Little justification is generally provided for selection of in vitro assay testing concentrations for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs). Selection of concentration levels for hazard evaluation based on real-world exposure scenarios is desirable. We reviewed published ENM concentrations measured in air in manufacturing and R&D labs to identify input levels for estimating ENM mass retained in the human lung using the Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model. Model input parameters were individually varied to estimate alveolar mass retained for different particle sizes (5-1000 nm), aerosol concentrations (0.1, 1 mg/m3), aspect ratios (2, 4, 10, 167), and exposure durations (24 hours and a working lifetime). The calculated lung surface concentrations were then converted to in vitro solution concentrations. Modeled alveolar mass retained after 24 hours is most affected by activity level and aerosol concentration. Alveolar retention for Ag and TiO2 nanoparticles and CNTs for a working lifetime (45 years) exposure duration is similar to high-end concentrations (~ 30-400 μg/mL) typical of in vitro testing reported in the literature. Analyses performed are generally applicable to provide ENM testing concentrations for in vitro hazard screening studies though further research is needed to improve the approach. Understanding the relationship between potential real-world exposures and in vitro test concentrations will facilitate interpretation of toxicological results

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio-economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

2006-01-01

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

2006-01-01

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib, Shahid

2006-01-01

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib, Shahid

2006-01-01

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

National young-driver survey: teen perspective and experience with factors that affect driving safety.

PubMed

Ginsburg, Kenneth R; Winston, Flaura K; Senserrick, Teresa M; García-España, Felipe; Kinsman, Sara; Quistberg, D Alex; Ross, James G; Elliott, Michael R

2008-05-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of fatality and acquired disability in adolescents. Young, inexperienced drivers are overrepresented in crashes. Our goal was to explore the adolescent perspective on driving safety to provide a better understanding of factors that influence safety and teenagers' exposure to driving hazards. Adolescents generated, prioritized, and explained their viewpoint by using the teen-centered method. These viewpoints were obtained from a school-based nationally representative survey of 9th-, 10th-, and 11th-graders (N = 5665) from 68 high schools, conducted in spring 2006, that included teen-generated items. The main outcome measures were rating of risk and prevalence of witnessing driving hazards. Drinking while driving was ranked as the greatest hazard (87% of the respondents reported that it made a lot of difference), although only 12% witnessed it often. Ranked next as dangers while driving were text-messaging, racing, impairment from marijuana, and road rage. Sixty percent viewed inexperience as a significant hazard, although only 15% reported seeing it often. Cell phone use was viewed as a significant hazard by 28%, although 57% witnessed it frequently. Only 10% viewed peer passengers as hazardous, but 64% frequently observed them. Distracting peer behaviors, among other distractions, were viewed as more dangerous. Subpopulations varied in the degree they perceived hazards. For example, black and Hispanic adolescents viewed substance use while driving as less hazardous than did white adolescents but witnessed it more frequently. Adolescents generally understand the danger of intoxicated driving. However, some groups need to better recognize this hazard. Distractions take teenagers' focus off the road, but not all are viewed as hazardous. Although inexperience is the key factor that interacts with other conditions to cause crashes, adolescents do not recognize what merits experience. Future research is needed to explore how to help teens become safer drivers and how to make clinicians, families, and communities more effective in setting, promoting, and monitoring safety standards.

Multi-Hazard Interactions in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we combine physical and social science approaches to develop a multi-scale regional framework for natural hazard interactions in Guatemala. The identification and characterisation of natural hazard interactions is an important input for comprehensive multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction at a regional level. We use five transdisciplinary evidence sources to organise and populate our framework: (i) internationally-accessible literature; (ii) civil protection bulletins; (iii) field observations; (iv) stakeholder interviews (hazard and civil protection professionals); and (v) stakeholder workshop results. These five evidence sources are synthesised to determine an appropriate natural hazard classification scheme for Guatemala (6 hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types). For a national spatial extent (Guatemala), we construct and populate a "21×21" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 49 possible interactions between 21 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (Southern Highlands, Guatemala), we construct and populate a "33×33" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 112 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types. Evidence sources are also used to constrain anthropogenic processes that could trigger natural hazards in Guatemala, and characterise possible networks of natural hazard interactions (cascades). The outcomes of this approach are among the most comprehensive interaction frameworks for national and sub-national spatial scales in the published literature. These can be used to support disaster risk reduction and civil protection professionals in better understanding natural hazards and potential disasters at a regional scale.

HANDBOOK: ASSESSING THE FATE OF DEEP-WELL-INJECTED HAZARDOUS WASTE. Summaries of Recent Research

EPA Science Inventory

This handbook has been developed for use as a reference tool in evaluating the suitability of disposing of specific hazardous wastes in deep injection wells. sers of the document will get a better understanding of the factors that affect 1) geochemical waste-reservoir reactions o...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Funk, David John

The inadvertent creation of transuranic waste carrying hazardous waste codes D001 and D002 requires the treatment of the material to eliminate the hazardous characteristics and allow its eventual shipment and disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). This report briefly summarizes the surrogate testing that was done in support of our understanding of this waste form.

Epidemiology for hazard rating of white pine blister rust

Treesearch

Eugene P. Van Arsdel; Brian W. Geils; Paul J. Zambino

2006-01-01

The ability to assess the potential for a severe infestation of white pine blister rust is an important management tool. Successful hazard rating requires a proper understanding of blister rust epidemiology, including environmental and genetic factors. For the blister rust caused by Cronartium ribicola, climate and meteorology, and the ecology,...

Neighborhood Comparisons of Dog-Related Health Hazards and Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meade, Melinda

1984-01-01

Undergraduate students increase their understanding of human geography and become aware of their community's health ecology by examining the degree and geographical pattern of dog-associated health hazards in Athens, Georgia, and by studying the behavioral patterns and attitudes of Athens's residents that might be causally related to these health…

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Workplace Hazards Faced by Nursing Assistants in the United States: A Focused Literature Review

PubMed Central

Walton, AnnMarie Lee; Rogers, Bonnie

2017-01-01

Nursing assistants (NAs) make up a large share of the healthcare provider workforce and their numbers are expected to grow. NAs are predominantly women who earn a low wage and report financial, work, and family demands. Working as a NA is hazardous; this manuscript specifically examines the biological/infectious, chemical, enviromechanical, physical and psychosocial hazards that appear in the literature to date. A focused search strategy was used to review literature about hazards that fell into each of the five aforementioned domains. While some hazards that were documented were clear, such as exposure to influenza because of close contact with patients (biological/infectious), or exposure to hazardous drugs (chemical), literature was limited. The majority of the literature we reviewed fell into the domain of psychosocial hazards and centered on stress from workplace organization issues (such as mandatory overtime, lack of managerial support, and feeling rushed). More research is needed to understand which hazards NAs identify as most concerning and tailored interventions are needed for risk mitigation. PMID:28534859

Semi-parametric regression model for survival data: graphical visualization with R

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Cox proportional hazards model is a semi-parametric model that leaves its baseline hazard function unspecified. The rationale to use Cox proportional hazards model is that (I) the underlying form of hazard function is stringent and unrealistic, and (II) researchers are only interested in estimation of how the hazard changes with covariate (relative hazard). Cox regression model can be easily fit with coxph() function in survival package. Stratified Cox model may be used for covariate that violates the proportional hazards assumption. The relative importance of covariates in population can be examined with the rankhazard package in R. Hazard ratio curves for continuous covariates can be visualized using smoothHR package. This curve helps to better understand the effects that each continuous covariate has on the outcome. Population attributable fraction is a classic quantity in epidemiology to evaluate the impact of risk factor on the occurrence of event in the population. In survival analysis, the adjusted/unadjusted attributable fraction can be plotted against survival time to obtain attributable fraction function. PMID:28090517

Workplace Hazards Faced by Nursing Assistants in the United States: A Focused Literature Review.

PubMed

Walton, AnnMarie Lee; Rogers, Bonnie

2017-05-19

Nursing assistants (NAs) make up a large share of the healthcare provider workforce and their numbers are expected to grow. NAs are predominantly women who earn a low wage and report financial, work, and family demands. Working as a NA is hazardous; this manuscript specifically examines the biological/infectious, chemical, enviromechanical, physical and psychosocial hazards that appear in the literature to date. A focused search strategy was used to review literature about hazards that fell into each of the five aforementioned domains. While some hazards that were documented were clear, such as exposure to influenza because of close contact with patients (biological/infectious), or exposure to hazardous drugs (chemical), literature was limited. The majority of the literature we reviewed fell into the domain of psychosocial hazards and centered on stress from workplace organization issues (such as mandatory overtime, lack of managerial support, and feeling rushed). More research is needed to understand which hazards NAs identify as most concerning and tailored interventions are needed for risk mitigation.

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy: promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10–year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people killed. Approximately two-thirds of European citizens could then be exposed to a weather-related disaster each year, which will bring about huge rises in health costs to society. Future impacts show a prominent spatial gradient towards southern regions, where weather extremes could become the greatest environmental risk factor for people. The projected changes are dominated by global warming, mainly through a rise in heatwaves, but ongoing urbanization, development in hazard-prone areas and ageing population will likely further increase human risk. The results call for immediate action to achieve the Paris goals on climate mitigation and adaptation in order to protect future European generations.

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

From the exposome to mechanistic understanding of chemical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND: Current definitions of the exposome expand beyond the initial idea to consider the totality of exposure and aim to relate to biological effects. While the exposome has been established for human health, its principles can be extended to include broader ecological issues. The assessment of exposure is tightly interlinked with hazard assessment. OBJECTIVES: We explore if mechanistic understanding of the causal links between exposure and adverse effects on human health and the environment can be improved by integrating the exposome approach with the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept - a framework to structure and organize the sequence of toxicological events from an initial molecular interaction of a chemical to an adverse outcome.METHODS: This review was informed by a Workshop organized by the Integrated Project EXPOSOME at the UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany. DISCUSSION: The exposome encompasses all chemicals, including exogenous chemicals and endogenous compounds that are produced in response to external factors. By complementing the exposome research with the AOP concept, we can achieve a better mechanistic understanding, weigh the importance of various components of the exposome, and determine primary risk drivers. The ability to interpret multiple exposures and mixture effects at the mechanistic level requires a more holistic approach facilitated by the exposome concept.CONCLUSION: Incorporating the AOP conc

Framework for Automation of Hazard Log Management on Large Critical Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinerbi, Lorenzo; Babu, Arun P.

2016-08-01

Hazard log is a database of all risk management activities in a project. Maintaining its correctness and consistency on large safety/mission critical projects involving multiple vendors, suppliers, and partners is critical and challenging. IBM DOORS is one of the popular tool used for hazard management in space applications. However, not all stake- holders are familiar with it. Also, It is not always feasible to expect all stake-holders to provide correct and consistent hazard data.The current work describes the process and tools to simplify the process of hazard data collection on large projects. It demonstrates how the collected data from all stake-holders is merged to form the hazard log while ensuring data consistency and correctness.The data provided by all parties are collected using a template containing scripts. The scripts check for mistakes based on internal standards of company in charge of hazard management. The collected data is then subjected to merging in DOORS, which also contain scripts to check and import data to form the hazard log. The proposed tool has been applied to a mission critical project, and has been found to save time and reduce the number of mistakes while creating the hazard log. The use of automatic checks paves the way for correct tracking of risk and hazard analysis activities for large critical projects.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Managing hazards in place: The risks of residual risks.

PubMed

Silbergeld, Ellen K

2017-10-01

Managing hazards in place (MHP) is a policy instrument in environmental health that allows less than complete removal, abatement, or remediation of environmental hazards. The practice of minimizing exposure to hazards rather than removing them is widely recognized as part of the toolbox of environmental protection for human and ecosystem health. The concept of managing hazards in place is embedded in several environmental statutes and regulations in the US notably the waste management regulations, as well as in the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. While this commentary focuses largely on applications of MHP in the US, this policy is also utilized by agencies in many other countries for managing hazardous waste sites, lead in housing and drinking water systems, and environmental contamination of rivers and estuaries. The rationale for this concept is not difficult to understand: MHP policies can reduce the costs of meeting environmental goals; it can provide opportunities for access to resources that have been contaminated by past actions such as waste disposal, and it can enhance land and property values as well as tax revenues all of which are important to home owners and communities. The concerns related to this concept are also not difficult to understand: an incompletely abated or contained hazard may present future exposure risks to humans and environmental biota. Further, the compromise implicit in MHP is the assurance of indefinite oversight and monitoring to detect any releases. To that extent, MHP involves both sociology as well as toxicology and the exposure sciences. Because of the prevalence of managing hazards in place, this commentary suggests that evaluation of its performance is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Continuous injection of an inert gas through a drill rig for drilling into potentially hazardous areas

DOEpatents

McCormick, S.H.; Pigott, W.R.

1997-12-30

A drill rig for drilling in potentially hazardous areas includes a drill having conventional features such as a frame, a gear motor, gear box, and a drive. A hollow rotating shaft projects through the drive and frame. An auger, connected to the shaft is provided with a multiplicity of holes. An inert gas is supplied to the hollow shaft and directed from the rotating shaft to the holes in the auger. The inert gas flows down the hollow shaft, and then down the hollow auger and out through the holes in the bottom of the auger into the potentially hazardous area. 3 figs.

Continuous injection of an inert gas through a drill rig for drilling into potentially hazardous areas

DOEpatents

McCormick, Steve H.; Pigott, William R.

1997-01-01

A drill rig for drilling in potentially hazardous areas includes a drill having conventional features such as a frame, a gear motor, gear box, and a drive. A hollow rotating shaft projects through the drive and frame. An auger, connected to the shaft is provided with a multiplicity of holes. An inert gas is supplied to the hollow shaft and directed from the rotating shaft to the holes in the auger. The inert gas flows down the hollow shaft, and then down the hollow auger and out through the holes in the bottom of the auger into the potentially hazardous area.

A Windshear Hazard Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proctor, Fred H.; Hinton, David A.; Bowles, Roland L.

2000-01-01

An aircraft exposed to hazardous low-level windshear may suffer a critical loss of airspeed and altitude, thus endangering its ability to remain airborne. In order to characterize this hazard, a nondimensional index was developed based oil aerodynamic principals and understanding of windshear phenomena, 'This paper reviews the development and application of the Bowles F-tactor. which is now used by onboard sensors for the detection of hazardous windshear. It was developed and tested during NASA/I:AA's airborne windshear program and is now required for FAA certification of onboard radar windshear detection systems. Reviewed in this paper are: 1) definition of windshear and description of atmospheric phenomena that may cause hazardous windshear. 2) derivation and discussion of the F-factor. 3) development of the F-factor hazard threshold, 4) its testing during field deployments, and 5) its use in accident reconstructions,

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rigot, William L.

On April 20, 2010, hydrocarbons escaped from the Macondo well into Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in fire and multiple explosions. 11 people on the rig died. The billion dollar Deepwater Horizon sank. 4.9 M gallons of product flowed from the well for 87 days creating an environmental nightmare for communities bordering on the Gulf of Mexico. BP established a $20 B reserve to pay for damages. Investigations and legal culpability continue to this day. In September 2010, the Institute for Nuclear Power Operators (INPO) issued Significant Operating Experience Report (SOER) 10-2, Engaged, Thinking Organizations. The industry had experienced 11 events,more » 9 in US commercial nuclear utilities, and 2 international, that had disturbing trends. The underlying causes highlighted by INPO were inadequate recognition of risk, weaknesses in application of significant operating experience, tolerance of equipment and personnel problems, and a significant drift in standards. While the noted INPO problems and the Deepwater Horizon event appear to have nothing in common, they do exhibit similarities in a drift away from expected behavior on the part of front line workers and their supervisors. At the same time, hidden hazards are accumulating in the environment leading to error intolerant conditions. Without a good understanding of this concept, many organizations tend to focus on the person who 'touched it last', while missing the deeper organizational factors that led that individual to think that what they were doing was correct. An understanding of this failure model is important in reconstruction of events and crafting effective corrective actions. It is much more important, however, for leaders in high hazard industries to recognize when they are approaching error intolerant conditions and take steps immediately to add safety margin. (authors)« less

A discrimination index for selecting markers of tumor growth dynamic across multiple cancer studies with a cure fraction.

PubMed

Rouam, Sigrid; Broët, Philippe

2013-08-01

To identify genomic markers with consistent effect on tumor dynamics across multiple cancer series, discrimination indices based on proportional hazards models can be used since they do not depend heavily on the sample size. However, the underlying assumption of proportionality of the hazards does not always hold, especially when the studied population is a mixture of cured and uncured patients, like in early-stage cancers. We propose a novel index that quantifies the capability of a genomic marker to separate uncured patients, according to their time-to-event outcomes. It allows to identify genomic markers characterizing tumor growth dynamic across multiple studies. Simulation results show that our index performs better than classical indices based on the Cox model. It is neither affected by the sample size nor the cure rate fraction. In a cross-study of early-stage breast cancers, the index allows to select genomic markers with a potential consistent effect on tumor growth dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Miniaturized Planar Room Temperature Ionic Liquid Electrochemical Gas Sensor for Rapid Multiple Gas Pollutants Monitoring.

PubMed

Wan, Hao; Yin, Heyu; Lin, Lu; Zeng, Xiangqun; Mason, Andrew J

2018-02-01

The growing impact of airborne pollutants and explosive gases on human health and occupational safety has escalated the demand of sensors to monitor hazardous gases. This paper presents a new miniaturized planar electrochemical gas sensor for rapid measurement of multiple gaseous hazards. The gas sensor features a porous polytetrafluoroethylene substrate that enables fast gas diffusion and room temperature ionic liquid as the electrolyte. Metal sputtering was utilized for platinum electrodes fabrication to enhance adhesion between the electrodes and the substrate. Together with carefully selected electrochemical methods, the miniaturized gas sensor is capable of measuring multiple gases including oxygen, methane, ozone and sulfur dioxide that are important to human health and safety. Compared to its manually-assembled Clark-cell predecessor, this sensor provides better sensitivity, linearity and repeatability, as validated for oxygen monitoring. With solid performance, fast response and miniaturized size, this sensor is promising for deployment in wearable devices for real-time point-of-exposure gas pollutant monitoring.

Occupational hazards to health of port workers.

PubMed

Wang, Yukun; Zhan, Shuifen; Liu, Yan; Li, Yan

2017-12-01

The aim of this article is to reduce the risk of occupational hazards and improve safety conditions by enhancing hazard knowledge and identification as well as improving safety behavior for freight port enterprises. In the article, occupational hazards to health and their prevention measures of freight port enterprises have been summarized through a lot of occupational health evaluation work, experience and understanding. Workers of freight port enterprises confront an equally wide variety of chemical, physical and psychological hazards in production technology, production environment and the course of labor. Such health hazards have been identified, the risks evaluated, the dangers to health notified and effective prevention measures which should be put in place to ensure the health of the port workers summarized. There is still a long way to go for the freight port enterprises to prevent and control the occupational hazards. Except for occupational hazards and their prevention measures, other factors that influence the health of port workers should also be paid attention to, such as age, work history, gender, contraindication and even the occurrence and development rules of occupational hazards in current production conditions.

Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not unequivocal. On the contrary, in the case of the Los Chorros, the "primary" risk (the landslide), as evaluated by the authorities, was not perceived as such by the local community, which prioritized economic risks by creating their own road through the landslide area in defiance of authorities. In other words, certain attributes and characteristics of risk will be emphasized by some actors over others, (i.e. economic considerations over the perceived probability of another landslide). Their priorities will depend on their needs and mandates and as priorities change, so individual definitions of risk may change over time. This paper demonstrates that the risk is not uniform, that multiple risks persist especially in a developing country context becomes diffuse, changes or endures because it depends on the implications on the territory and on the risk definition made by the actors. The risk is variable, the result of a choice because its existence is attributed by the characteristics or criteria of vulnerability fostered by actors in their territories. Finally, the case study demonstrates that in developing countries, actors are forced to address and prioritize multiple risks due to limited resources. In this context, the challenge for managers of natural hazards is to move from risk management in the strict sense (i.e., pure hazard approach) to a broader risk management, taking into consideration what is important for the society and for the functioning of systems. Territory management in this sense is an appropriate approach for taking into account multiple stakeholder priorities, their relationships, available resources and limitations.

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss the uncertainty of inferences, and how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method provides a route to formal propagation of uncertainties in hazard models. Such approaches provide an attractive route to developing an interface between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard scenario analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard analysis as a tractable and traceable tool for fast, rational assimilation of complex, multi-parameter data sets in the context of timely volcanic crisis decision support.

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among people, technical experts, and decision-makers. Those dealing with seismic risk need to understand what people think about and how they respond to this risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective. (Slovic, 1987). For these reasons we believe that comparing the perception factors with the "real factors" of seismic risk, is a crucial point to understand the relationship between scientific knowledge and public understanding. Without a comparison with reality, research on risk perception is just an intellectual exercise.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

2009-04-01

In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.G.; Pallister, John S.

2014-01-01

The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

Subsystem Hazard Analysis Methodology for the Ares I Upper Stage Source Controlled Items

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael S.; Winner, David R.

2010-01-01

This article describes processes involved in developing subsystem hazard analyses for Source Controlled Items (SCI), specific components, sub-assemblies, and/or piece parts, of the NASA ARES I Upper Stage (US) project. SCIs will be designed, developed and /or procured by Boeing as an end item or an off-the-shelf item. Objectives include explaining the methodology, tools, stakeholders and products involved in development of these hazard analyses. Progress made and further challenges in identifying potential subsystem hazards are also provided in an effort to assist the System Safety community in understanding one part of the ARES I Upper Stage project.

On the Interpretation of the Hazard Ratio and Communication of Survival Benefit.

PubMed

Sashegyi, Andreas; Ferry, David

2017-04-01

This brief communication will clarify the difference between a relative hazard and a relative risk. We highlight the importance of this difference, and demonstrate in practical terms that 1 minus the hazard ratio should not be interpreted as a risk reduction in the commonly understood sense of the term. This article aims to provide a better understanding of the type of risk reduction that a hazard ratio implies, thereby clarifying the intent in the communication among practitioners and researchers and establishing an accurate and realistic foundation for communicating with patients. The Oncologist 2017;22:484-486. © AlphaMed Press 2017.

Recent developments in understanding the tectonic evolution of the Southern California offshore area: Implications for earthquake-hazard analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Langenheim, V.E.; Nicholson, C.; Ryan, H.F.; Sliter, R.W.

2009-01-01

During late Mesozoic and Cenozoic time, three main tectonic episodes affected the Southern California offshore area. Each episode imposed its unique structural imprint such that early-formed structures controlled or at least influenced the location and development of later ones. This cascaded structural inheritance greatly complicates analysis of the extent, orientation, and activity of modern faults. These fault attributes play key roles in estimates of earthquake magnitude and recurrence interval. Hence, understanding the earthquake hazard posed by offshore and coastal faults requires an understanding of the history of structural inheritance and modifi-cation. In this report we review recent (mainly since 1987) findings about the tectonic development of the Southern California offshore area and use analog models of fault deformation as guides to comprehend the bewildering variety of offshore structures that developed over time. This report also provides a background in regional tectonics for other chapters in this section that deal with the threat from offshore geologic hazards in Southern California. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Fire safety design considerations for advanced space vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The desire to understand and explore space has driven man to overcome the confines of the Earth's atmosphere and accept the challenge of spaceflight. With our increasing ability to travel, work, and explore in space comes a need for a better understanding of the hazards in this relatively new endeavor. One of the most important and immediate needs is to be able to predict the ignition, spread, and growth of fire on board spacecraft. Fire safety aboard spacecraft has always been a concern; however, with the increasing number and duration of proposed missions, it is imperative that the spacecraft be designed with a solid understanding of fire hazards, insuring that all risks have been minimized and extinguishment systems are available.

76 FR 79656 - E & B Giftware LLC, Provisional Acceptance of a Settlement Agreement and Order

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-22

... product hazard, or created an unreasonable risk of serious injury or death, EB failed to immediately... product hazard or create an unreasonable risk of serious injury or death. Furthermore, it denies that it.... Understandings, agreements, representations, or interpretations apart from those contained in the Agreement and...

Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

Treesearch

Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David Rizzo

2010-01-01

It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

Financial analysis of fuel treatments.

Treesearch

Fight; Roger D.; R. James Barbour

2005-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide information and discussion that will be helpful in promoting thoughtful design of fire hazard reduction treatments to meet the full range of management objectives. Thoughtful design requires an understanding of the costs and potential revenues of applying variations of fire hazard reduction treatments in a wide range of stand...

Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Kean, Jason W.

2015-01-01

Landslide studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are focused on two main objectives: scientific understanding and forecasting. The first objective is to gain better understanding of the physical processes involved in landslide initiation and movement. This objective is largely in support of the second objective, to develop predictive capabilities to answer the main hazard questions. Answers to the following six questions are needed to characterize the hazard from landslides: (1) Where will landslides occur? (2) What kind(s) of landslides will occur? (3) When will landslides occur? (4) How big will the landslides be? (5) How fast will the landslides travel? (6) How far will the landslides go? Although these questions are sometimes recast in different terms, such as frequency or recurrence rather than timing (when), the questions or their variants address the spatial, physical, and temporal aspects of landslide hazards. Efforts to develop modeling and forecasting capabilities by the USGS are primarily focused on specific landslide types that pose a high degree of hazard and show relatively high potential for predictability.

Geophysical Hazards and Preventive Disaster Management of Extreme Natural Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Takeuchi, K.

2007-12-01

Geophysical hazard is potentially damaging natural event and/or phenomenon, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Extreme natural hazards are a key manifestation of the complex hierarchical nonlinear Earth system. An understanding, accurate modeling and forecasting of the extreme hazards are most important scientific challenges. Several recent extreme natural events (e.g., 2004 Great Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami and the 2005 violent Katrina hurricane) demonstrated strong coupling between solid Earth and ocean, and ocean and atmosphere. These events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of a weak preventive disaster management. The less often natural events occur (and the extreme events are rare by definition), the more often the disaster managers postpone the preparedness to the events. The tendency to reduce the funding for preventive disaster management of natural catastrophes is seldom follows the rules of responsible stewardship for future generations neither in developing countries nor in highly developed economies where it must be considered next to malfeasance. Protecting human life and property against earthquake disasters requires an uninterrupted chain of tasks: from (i) understanding of physics of the events, analysis and monitoring, through (ii) interpretation, modeling, hazard assessment, and prediction, to (iii) public awareness, preparedness, and preventive disaster management.

Monitoring and characterizing natural hazards with satellite InSAR imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong; Dzurisin, Daniel

2010-01-01

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) provides an all-weather imaging capability for measuring ground-surface deformation and inferring changes in land surface characteristics. InSAR enables scientists to monitor and characterize hazards posed by volcanic, seismic, and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires, and by human activities such as mining and fluid extraction or injection. Measuring how a volcano’s surface deforms before, during, and after eruptions provides essential information about magma dynamics and a basis for mitigating volcanic hazards. Measuring spatial and temporal patterns of surface deformation in seismically active regions is extraordinarily useful for understanding rupture dynamics and estimating seismic risks. Measuring how landslides develop and activate is a prerequisite to minimizing associated hazards. Mapping surface subsidence or uplift related to extraction or injection of fluids during exploitation of groundwater aquifers or petroleum reservoirs provides fundamental data on aquifer or reservoir properties and improves our ability to mitigate undesired consequences. Monitoring dynamic water-level changes in wetlands improves hydrological modeling predictions and the assessment of future flood impacts. In addition, InSAR imagery can provide near-real-time estimates of fire scar extents and fire severity for wildfire management and control. All-weather satellite radar imagery is critical for studying various natural processes and is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Perceptions of earthquake and tsunami issues in U.S. Pacific Northwest port and harbor communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2005-01-01

Although there is considerable energy focused on assessing natural hazards associated with earthquakes and tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, little has been done to understand societal vulnerability to these hazards. Part of understanding societal vulnerability includes assessing the perceptions and priorities of public sector individuals with traditional emergency management responsibilities and of private citizens who could play key roles in community recovery. In response to this knowledge gap, we examine earthquake and tsunami perceptions of stakeholders and decision makers from coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, focusing on perceptions of (1) regional hazards and societal vulnerability, (2) the current state of readiness, and (3) priorities for future hazard adjustment efforts. Results of a mailed survey suggest that survey participants believe that earthquakes and tsunamis are credible community threats. Most communities are focusing on regional mitigation and response planning, with less effort devoted to recovery plans or to making individual organizations more resilient. Significant differences in expressed perceptions and priorities were observed between Oregon and Washington respondents, mainly on tsunami issues. Significant perception differences were also observed between private and public sector respondents. Our results suggest the need for further research and for outreach and planning initiatives in the Pacific Northwest to address significant gaps in earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and readiness.

Volcanic debris flows in developing countries - The extreme need for public education and awareness of debris-flow hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; ,

2003-01-01

In many developing countries, volcanic debris flows pose a significant societal risk owing to the distribution of dense populations that commonly live on or near a volcano. At many volcanoes, modest volume (up to 500,000 m 3) debris flows are relatively common (multiple times per century) and typically flow at least 5 km along established drainages. Owing to typical debris-flow velocities there is little time for authorities to provide effective warning of the occurrence of a debris flow to populations within 10 km of a source area. Therefore, people living, working, or recreating along channels that drain volcanoes must learn to recognize potentially hazardous conditions, be aware of the extent of debris-flow hazard zones, and be prepared to evacuate to safer ground when hazardous conditions develop rather than await official warnings or intervention. Debris-flow-modeling and hazard-assessment studies must be augmented with public education programs that emphasize recognizing conditions favorable for triggering landslides and debris flows if effective hazard mitigation is to succeed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

PubMed Central

NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

2016-01-01

Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. Formore » example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.« less

Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

PubMed

Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

2016-08-05

Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

Assessing risks to multiple resources affected by wildfire and forest management using an integrated probabilistic framework

Treesearch

Steven P. Norman; Danny C. Lee; Sandra Jacobson; Christine Damiani

2010-01-01

The tradeoffs that surround forest management are inherently complex, often involving multiple temporal and spatial scales. For example, conflicts may result when fuel treatments are designed to mediate long-term fuel hazards, but activities could impair sensitive aquatic habitat or degrade wildlife habitat in the short term. This complexity makes it hard for managers...

Perception of Lava Flow Hazards and Risk at Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Kona, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

2001-12-01

The island of Hawaii is composed of five sub-aerially exposed volcanoes, three of which have been active since 1801 (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai). Hawaii has the fastest population growth in the state and the local economy in the Kona districts (i.e., western portion of the island) is driven by tourism. Kona is directly vulnerable to future lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes, as well as indirectly from the effects of lava flows elsewhere that may sever the few roads that connect Kona to other vital areas on the island. A number of factors such as steep slopes, high volume eruptions, and high effusion rates, combine to mean that lava flows from Hualalai and Mauna Loa can be fast-moving and hence unusually hazardous. The proximity of lifelines and structures to potential eruptive sources exacerbates societies' risk to future lava flows. Approximately \\$2.3 billion has been invested on the flanks of Mauna Loa since its last eruption in 1984 (Trusdell 1995). An equivalent figure has not yet been determined for Hualalai, but an international airport, several large resort complexes, and Kailua-Kona, the second largest town on the island, are down-slope and within 15km of potential eruptive Hualalai vents. Public and perhaps official understanding of specific lava flow hazards and the perceptions of risk from renewed volcanism at each volcano are proportional to the time lapsed since the most recent eruption that impacted Kona, rather than a quantitative assessment of risk that takes into account recent growth patterns. Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai last directly impacted upon Kona during the notorious 1950 and circa 1801 eruptions, respectively. Various non-profit organizations; local, state and federal government entities; and academic institutions have disseminated natural hazard information in Kona but despite the intuitive appeal that increased hazard understanding and risk perception results in increased hazard adjustment adoption, this assumption is not always justified (Burger and Palmer, 1992). We are nearing completion of a survey among high school students, adult residents, and tourists in Kona to evaluate hazard understanding, risk perception and adjustment adoption. The findings should serve as a foundation for the development of future lava flow hazard education and mitigation initiatives. An evaluation of demographic, infrastructure, and land-use planning issues is also being performed to assess vulnerability and societal resilience in future eruptions.

Additive hazards regression and partial likelihood estimation for ecological monitoring data across space.

PubMed

Lin, Feng-Chang; Zhu, Jun

2012-01-01

We develop continuous-time models for the analysis of environmental or ecological monitoring data such that subjects are observed at multiple monitoring time points across space. Of particular interest are additive hazards regression models where the baseline hazard function can take on flexible forms. We consider time-varying covariates and take into account spatial dependence via autoregression in space and time. We develop statistical inference for the regression coefficients via partial likelihood. Asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are established for parameter estimates under suitable regularity conditions. Feasible algorithms utilizing existing statistical software packages are developed for computation. We also consider a simpler additive hazards model with homogeneous baseline hazard and develop hypothesis testing for homogeneity. A simulation study demonstrates that the statistical inference using partial likelihood has sound finite-sample properties and offers a viable alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. For illustration, we analyze data from an ecological study that monitors bark beetle colonization of red pines in a plantation of Wisconsin.

Traffic Incident Management in the Presence of Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Zlatanova, S.; Steenbruggen, J.

2016-09-01

Traffic incidents can result in different kinds of hazards (e.g., plumes) that influence the status of road networks, therefore there is a great need for incident management in the presence of the hazards. When incidents occur, the created hazards not only affect the normal road users (make them detour or blocked), but also influence the movement of first responders. Traffic managers, who are responsible for maintaining the road safety and traffic stability, should carry out quick and effective measures to manage the incidents. In this paper, we present four issues to help people better understand the situations that could occur in the management of incidents with hazards: 1). Evacuation in the presence of hazards; 2). 3D incident management; 3). Navigation support for first responders; 4). Navigation support for road users. To address these issues, we propose a solution which combines agent technology, geo-database, hazard simulation, and traffic simulation. Further research would be needed to investigate the potentials of the proposed solution in real applications.

Occupational Health and the Arts.

PubMed

Hinkamp, David L; McCann, Michael; Babin, Angela

2017-09-01

Work in the visual arts, performing arts, and writing can involve exposures to occupational hazards, including hazardous materials, equipment, and conditions, but few art workplaces have strong occupational health resources. Literature searches were conducted for articles that illustrate these concerns. Medical databases were searched for art-related health articles. Other sources were also reviewed, including, unindexed art-health publications, and popular press articles. Information was located that described some exposed populations, art-related hazards, and resulting disorders. Anecdotal reports were used when more complete data were not available. Health hazards in the arts are significant. Occupational health professionals are familiar with most of these concerns and understand their treatment and prevention. The occupational health approach can reduce the health hazards encountered by at-risk art workers. Additional research would benefit these efforts. Resources for further information are available.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Katherine A.; Hart, David; Moriarty, Dylan Michael

Drinking water systems face multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, water quality concerns, uncertainty in supply and demand, natural disasters, environmental emergencies, and cyber and terrorist attacks. All of these have the potential to disrupt a large portion of a water system causing damage to infrastructure and outages to customers. Increasing resilience to these types of hazards is essential to improving water security. As one of the United States (US) sixteen critical infrastructure sectors, drinking water is a national priority. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council defined infrastructure resilience as “the ability to reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events. Themore » effectiveness of a resilient infrastructure or enterprise depends upon its ability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from a potentially disruptive event”. Being able to predict how drinking water systems will perform during disruptive incidents and understanding how to best absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to such incidents can help enhance resilience.« less

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

2016-09-01

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne;

Towards an Inclusive Occupational Health and Safety For Informal Workers.

PubMed

Lund, Francie; Alfers, Laura; Santana, Vilma

2016-08-01

Large numbers of workers worldwide work informally. Yet the discipline and practice of occupational health and safety covers largely only formal workers, in formal work places. A comprehensive approach would have to take into account specific hazards faced by those in different occupations, working in "atypical" work places. Local authorities exert significant influence in the provision of infrastructure that impacts on health and safety, such as water and sanitation. Examples from Brazil and Ghana show that positive interventions are possible so long as informal workers are recognized as contributing to the economy. A more inclusive occupational health and safety is most likely to happen in contexts where informal workers have an organized voice and where there are responsive health and safety personnel who understand that the world of work has changed. Some policy interventions that impact on healthy and safe work will need to involve multiple stakeholders and institutions. © The Author(s) 2016.

Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James

2012-08-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.

The Theory-based Influence of Map Features on Risk Beliefs: Self-reports of What is Seen and Understood for Maps Depicting an Environmental Health Hazard

PubMed Central

Vatovec, Christine

2013-01-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. We report results from thirteen cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed three formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (pre-attentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared to abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: pre-attentive “incremental risk” meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals. PMID:22715919

The theory-based influence of map features on risk beliefs: self-reports of what is seen and understood for maps depicting an environmental health hazard.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J; Vatovec, Christine

2012-08-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. The authors report results from 13 cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed 3 formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (preattentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared with abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: preattentive "incremental risk" meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals.

Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, J. R.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, H.; Osman, M.; Cha, D.; Kavet, R.; Cuccinotta, F.; Dicello, J. F.; Dillehay, L. E.

1999-01-01

The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such understanding is critical in extrapolating databases between cellular response, animal carcinogenesis and human carcinogenesis, and we suggest that the SAO model is a useful tool for such extrapolation.

Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

2016-04-01

Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

Recent changes in flood damage in the United States from observations and ACME model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Despite efforts to mitigate flood hazards in flood-prone areas, survey- and report-based flood databases show that flood damage has increased and emerged as one of the most costly disaster in the United States since the 1990s. Understanding the mechanism driving the changes in flood damage is therefore critical for reducing flood risk. In this study, we first conduct a comprehensive analysis of the changing characteristics of flood damage at local, state and country level. Results show a significant increasing trend in the number of flood hazards, causing economic losses of up to $7 billion per year. The ratio of flood events that caused tangible economical cost to the total flood events has exhibited a non-significant increasing trend before 2007 followed by a significant decrease, indicating a changing vulnerability to floods. Analysis also reveals distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the threshold intensity of flood hazards with tangible economical cost. To understand the mechanism behind the increasing flood damage, we develop a flood damage economic model coupled with the integrated hydrological modeling system of ACME that features a river routing model with an inundation parameterization and a water use and regulation model. The model is evaluated over the country against historical records. Several numerical experiments are then designed to explore the mechanisms behind the recent changes in flood damage from the perspective of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which constitute flood damage. The role of human activities such as reservoir operations and water use in modifying regional floods are also explored using the new tool, with the goal of improving understanding and modeling of vulnerability to flood hazards.

Waste-law amendments are taxing EPA's resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dwyer, P.; Trewhitt, J.

1985-05-13

This paper explains why the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is feeling the burden of having to meet the multiple deadlines imposed by last year's changes in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. The 1984 amendments are far more than an attempt to close a few loopholes to catch midnight dumpers of hazardous waste. The way the U.S. disposes of most of its 250 million metric tons/yr of hazardous waste will have to change. One of EPA's most difficult jobs in implementing the latest RCRA amendments is the seriousness of Congress's intention to unequivocally restrict land disposal of hazardous waste, beginningmore » with dioxins and solvents, in November, 1986.« less

Understanding the hazards of thrown objects: Incidents, research and resolutions

Treesearch

John J. Garland; Robert Rummer

2009-01-01

Improved rotating cutting devices (teeth on a disk/drum or cutters on a chain) for forest operations have produced hazards for operators and others from thrown objects. Anecdotes and actual incidents show fatalities and serious injuries are possible and likely under certain circumstances. Some mechanisms for thrown objects are clear (thrown cutting teeth) while others...

Concept Attainment Teaching Methodology (CATM)--An Effective Approach for Training Workers on Chemicals Health Hazards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suleiman, Abdulqadir Mohamad

2016-01-01

Workers handling chemicals need to understand the risk to health involved in their work, and this requires training. In this study effectivity of concept attainment teaching methodology (CATM) as training strategy for cleaning workers was assessed. CATM was used to train workers on chemicals information and health hazards. Pictures, illustrations,…

The Target Industries: Profiles of Five Hazardous Occupations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Occupational Safety and Health Administration, Washington, DC.

To contribute to a fuller understanding and awareness of the hazards involved in industries as well as to call attention to steps being taken to solve safety problems, this pamphlet surveys five industries cited among those having the highest rates of job-related injuries in the country. Industries include: (1) Roofing and Sheet Metal, (2)…

Occupational, social, and relationship hazards and psychological distress among low-income workers: implications of the 'inverse hazard law'.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy; Kaddour, Afamia; Koenen, Karestan; Kosheleva, Anna; Chen, Jarvis T; Waterman, Pamela D; Barbeau, Elizabeth M

2011-03-01

Few studies have simultaneously included exposure information on occupational hazards, relationship hazards (eg, intimate partner violence) and social hazards (eg, poverty and racial discrimination), especially among low-income multiracial/ethnic populations. A cross-sectional study (2003-2004) of 1202 workers employed at 14 worksites in the greater Boston area of Massachusetts investigated the independent and joint association of occupational, social and relationship hazards with psychological distress (K6 scale). Among this low-income cohort (45% were below the US poverty line), exposure to occupational, social and relationship hazards, per the 'inverse hazard law,' was high: 82% exposed to at least one occupational hazard, 79% to at least one social hazard, and 32% of men and 34% of women, respectively, stated they had been the perpetrator or target of intimate partner violence (IPV). Fully 15.4% had clinically significant psychological distress scores (K6 score ≥ 13). All three types of hazards, and also poverty, were independently associated with increased risk of psychological distress. In models including all three hazards, however, significant associations with psychological distress occurred among men and women for workplace abuse and high exposure to racial discrimination only; among men, for IPV; and among women, for high exposure to occupational hazards, poverty and smoking. Reckoning with the joint and embodied reality of diverse types of hazards involving how people live and work is necessary for understanding determinants of health status.

Use of Citizen Science and Social Media to Improve Wind Hazard and Damage Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, F.; Meidani, H.

2017-12-01

Windstorm losses are significant in the U.S. annually and cause damage worldwide. A large percentage of losses are caused by localized events (e.g., tornadoes). In order to better mitigate these losses improvement is needed in understanding the hazard characteristics and physical damage. However, due to the small-scale nature of these events the resolution of the dedicated measuring network does not capture most occurrences. As a result damage-based assessments are sometimes used to gauge intensity. These damage assessments often suffer from a lack of available manpower, inability to arrive at the scene rapidly and difficulty accessing a damaged site. The use and rapid dissemination of social media, the power of crowds engaged in scientific endeavors, and the public's awareness of their vulnerabilities point to a paradigm shift in how hazards can be sensed in a rapid manner. In this way, `human-sensor' data has the potential to radically improve fundamental understanding of hazard and disasters and resolve some of the existing challenges in wind hazard and damage characterization. Data from social media outlets such as Twitter have been used to aid in damage assessments from hazards such as flood and earthquake, however, the reliability and uncertainty of participatory sensing has been questioned and has been called the `biggest challenge' for its sustained use. This research proposes to investigate the efficacy of both citizen science applications and social media data to represent wind hazards and associated damage. Research has focused on a two-phase approach: 1) to have citizen scientists perform their own `damage survey' (i.e., questionnaire) with known damage to assess uncertainty in estimation and 2) downloading and analysis of social media text and imagery streams to ascertain the possibility of performing `unstructured damage surveys'. Early results have shown that the untrained public can estimate tornado damage levels in residential structures with some accuracy. In addition, valuable windstorm hazard and damage information in both text and imagery can be extracted and archived from Twitter in an automated fashion. Information extracted from these sources will feed into advances in hazard and disaster modeling, social-cognitive theories of human behavior and decision-making for hazard mitigation.

Volcanic hazards and public response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Donald W.

1988-05-01

Although scientific understanding of volcanoes is advancing, eruptions continue to take a substantial toll of life and property. Some of these losses could be reduced by better advance preparation, more effective flow of information between scientists and public officials, and better understanding of volcanic behavior by all segments of the public. The greatest losses generally occur at volcanoes that erupt infrequently where people are not accustomed to dealing with them. Scientists sometimes tend to feel that the blame for poor decisions in emergency management lies chiefly with officials or journalists because of their failure to understand the threat. However, the underlying problem embraces a set of more complex issues comprising three pervasive factors. The first factor is the volcano: signals given by restless volcanoes are often ambiguous and difficult to interpret, especially at long-quiescent volcanoes. The second factor is people: people confront hazardous volcanoes in widely divergent ways, and many have difficulty in dealing with the uncertainties inherent in volcanic unrest. The third factor is the scientists: volcanologists correctly place their highest priority on monitoring and hazard assessment, but they sometimes fail to explain clearly their conclusions to responsible officials and the public, which may lead to inadequate public response. Of all groups in society, volcanologists have the clearest understanding of the hazards and vagaries of volcanic activity; they thereby assume an ethical obligation to convey effectively their knowledge to benefit all of society. If society resists, their obligation nevertheless remains. They must use the same ingenuity and creativity in dealing with information for the public that they use in solving scientific problems. When this falls short, even excellent scientific results may be nullified.

Prospects and pitfalls of occupational hazard mapping: 'between these lines there be dragons'.

PubMed

Koehler, Kirsten A; Volckens, John

2011-10-01

Hazard data mapping is a promising new technique that can enhance the process of occupational exposure assessment and risk communication. Hazard maps have the potential to improve worker health by providing key input for the design of hazard intervention and control strategies. Hazard maps are developed with aid from direct-reading instruments, which can collect highly spatially and temporally resolved data in a relatively short period of time. However, quantifying spatial-temporal variability in the occupational environment is not a straightforward process, and our lack of understanding of how to ascertain and model spatial and temporal variability is a limiting factor in the use and interpretation of workplace hazard maps. We provide an example of how sources of and exposures to workplace hazards may be mischaracterized in a hazard map due to a lack of completeness and representativeness of collected measurement data. Based on this example, we believe that a major priority for research in this emerging area should focus on the development of a statistical framework to quantify uncertainty in spatially and temporally varying data. In conjunction with this need is one for the development of guidelines and procedures for the proper sampling, generation, and evaluation of workplace hazard maps.

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

2018-04-01

The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

UNDERSTANDING BIOREMEDIATION: A GUIDEBOOK FOR CITIZENS

EPA Science Inventory

Bioremediation—a process that uses microorganisms to transform harmful substances to nontoxic compounds—is one of the most promising new technologies for treating chemical spills and hazardous waste problems. In order to improve this technology and better understand its cap...

Volcanic Air Pollution - A Hazard in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, Jeff; Elias, Tamar; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

1997-01-01

Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other pollutants emitted from Kilauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai'i react with oxygen and atmospheric moisture to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog poses a health hazard by aggravating preexisting respiratory ailments, and acid rain damages crops and can leach lead into household water supplies. The U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is closely monitoring gas emissions from Kilauea and working with health professionals and local officials to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

2017-04-01

Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards (and their possible interactions) as possible sources of system's perturbation that might drive to the development of an incidental event. Given the complexity of the problem, we adopt a multi-level approach: first, perform a qualitative analysis oriented to the identification of a wide range of possible scenarios; this process is based on a review of potential impacts in different risk receptors reported in literature, which is condensed in a number of causal diagrams created for different stages of a UR development project. Second, the most important scenarios for quantitative multi-hazard risk analyses are selected for further quantification. This selection is based on the identification of major risks, i.e., those related with the occurrence of low probability/high impact extreme events. The general framework for the quantitative multi-hazard risk analysis is represented using a so-called bow-tie structure. It is composed of a fault tree on the left hand side of the graphic plot, identifying the possible events causing the critical (or top) event, and an event tree on the right-hand side showing the possible consequences of the critical event. This work was supported under SHEER: "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" project n.640896, funded from Horizon 2020 - R&I Framework Programme, call H2020-LCE-2014-1

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hazards and Health Risks Encountered by Manual Sand Dredgers from Udupi, India: A Cross-sectional Study

PubMed Central

Shaikh, Alfiya; Nayak, Priyanka; Navada, Rajesh

2017-01-01

Introduction Globalization and urbanization have resulted in an increased demand on sand dredging. Legal and environmental restrictions on automated dredging have led to a rise in manual technique. The working techniques and environment involved in manual sand dredging may expose the workers to multiple work related disorders. Aim To determine the health risks and occupational hazards involved in manual sand dredging. Materials and Methods An assessment schedule was developed and content was validated by five experts for the study. A cross-sectional study was then conducted using this assessment schedule. Thirty manual sand dredgers were recruited from three randomly selected docks on Swarna riverbed in Udupi district, Karnataka, India. A detailed work and worksite assessments were conducted using systematic observation and close-ended questions. Work-related health risk evaluation included onsite-evaluation and self-reported health complains. Results The prevalence of musculoskeletal pain and discomfort was 93.34% with lower back (70%), shoulder (56.7%) and neck (46.7%) involvements being most common regions. Prevalence of sensory deficits at multiple site and ear pain was 66.6% and 76.6% respectively. All the workers recruited, complained of dermatological and ophthalmic involvements. Also, lack of health and safety measures like personal protective devices and security schemes were identified. Conclusion This study shows a high prevalence of multiple work-related disorders and hazards involved in manual sand dredging, a highly demanding job in coastal Karnataka. Lack of health and safety measures were also identified. PMID:28892936

Improving Public Health through Innovations in Exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In the traditional risk assessment paradigm, exposure science is relegated to a supporting role, providing an exposure estimate for comparison with hazard-based guidance values to determine whether there may be an unacceptable risk to public health. More recently, exposure science has transformed into a distinct discipline that complements toxicology as a means to understand the relationship between exposures to chemical mixtures and multiple health effects. This transformation is driven by advances in, for example, analytical methods, biomarker discovery, computational capabilities and algorithms, remote and on-person sensors, and geographic information systems. These major innovations in exposure science provide novel data streams that can revolutionize toxicity testing strategies and conventional risk assessment. For example, large numbers of chemicals are being detected at ever-lower concentrations in environmental and biological samples, providing relevant exposure information to be integrated into toxicity testing strategies. Novel biomarkers are being developed to expand our understanding of exposures, early biological effects, and susceptibility, and to allow for the exploration of contributions from both chemical and non-chemical stressors to adverse health outcomes. This workshop will introduce numerous innovative tools to enable better characterization of human exposures to mixtures of chemicals, including 1) a non-targeted approach to identify

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

PubMed Central

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

The status of tularemia in Europe in a one-health context: a review.

PubMed

Hestvik, G; Warns-Petit, E; Smith, L A; Fox, N J; Uhlhorn, H; Artois, M; Hannant, D; Hutchings, M R; Mattsson, R; Yon, L; Gavier-Widen, D

2015-07-01

The bacterium Francisella tularensis causes the vector-borne zoonotic disease tularemia, and may infect a wide range of hosts including invertebrates, mammals and birds. Transmission to humans occurs through contact with infected animals or contaminated environments, or through arthropod vectors. Tularemia has a broad geographical distribution, and there is evidence which suggests local emergence or re-emergence of this disease in Europe. This review was developed to provide an update on the geographical distribution of F. tularensis in humans, wildlife, domestic animals and vector species, to identify potential public health hazards, and to characterize the epidemiology of tularemia in Europe. Information was collated on cases in humans, domestic animals and wildlife, and on reports of detection of the bacterium in arthropod vectors, from 38 European countries for the period 1992-2012. Multiple international databases on human and animal health were consulted, as well as published reports in the literature. Tularemia is a disease of complex epidemiology that is challenging to understand and therefore to control. Many aspects of this disease remain poorly understood. Better understanding is needed of the epidemiological role of animal hosts, potential vectors, mechanisms of maintenance in the different ecosystems, and routes of transmission of the disease.

What you don't know can hurt you: household products and events.

PubMed

Leonard, S D; Wogalter, M S

2000-05-01

Product safety is affected by product design and by the knowledge of the user, either through the user's own background or through instructions and warnings presented with the product. Given adequate knowledge, warnings can serve primarily to remind individuals of the hazards and precautions that can be taken. This study examined people in the USA (represented by two diverse samples) to evaluate their knowledge about the hazards associated with common household products and situations using both multiple choice and open-ended surveys. The results indicated that the respondents were aware of a substantial number of hazards, but their knowledge often did not extend to the specific circumstances that could produce personal injury and property damage. Further, comparisons of cued and non-cued responses suggested some hazards are not well recognized without the cue. The results indicate warnings are needed both as reminders and to provide safety information.

Monitoring Space Weather Hazards caused by geomagnetic disturbances with Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Gannon, J. L.; Peek, T. A.; Lin, D.

2017-12-01

One space weather hazard is the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in the electric power transmission systems, which is naturally induced geoelectric field during the geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs). GICs are a potentially catastrophic threat to bulk power systems. For instance, the Blackout in Quebec in March 1989 was caused by GMDs during a significant magnetic storm. To monitor the GMDs, the autonomous Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) system is developed recently. The system includes magnetic field measurement from magnetometers and geomagnetic field measurement from electrodes. In this presentation, we introduce the six sites of SHMs which have been deployed in the US continental regions. The data from the magnetometers are processed with the Multiple Observatory Geomagnetic Data Analysis Software (MOGDAS). And the statistical results are presented here. It reveals not only the impacts of space weather over US continental region but also the potential of improving instrumentation development to provide better space weather monitor.

Aircraft Icing Weather Data Reporting and Dissemination System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bass, Ellen J.; Minsk, Brian; Lindholm, Tenny; Politovich, Marcia; Reehorst, Andrew (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The long-term operational concept of this research is to develop an onboard aircraft system that assesses and reports atmospheric icing conditions automatically and in a timely manner in order to improve aviation safety and the efficiency of aircraft operations via improved real-time and forecast weather products. The idea is to use current measurement capabilities on aircraft equipped with icing sensors and in-flight data communication technologies as a reporting source. Without requiring expensive avionics upgrades, aircraft data must be processed and available for downlink. Ideally, the data from multiple aircraft can then be integrated (along with other real-time and modeled data) on the ground such that aviation-centered icing hazard metrics for volumes of airspace can be assessed. As the effect of icing on different aircraft types can vary, the information should be displayed in meaningful ways such that multiple types of users can understand the information. That is, information must be presented in a manner to allow users to understand the icing conditions with respect to individual concerns and aircraft capabilities. This research provides progress toward this operational concept by: identifying an aircraft platform capable of digitally capturing, processing, and downlinking icing data; identifying the required in situ icing data processing; investigating the requirements for routing the icing data for use by weather products; developing an icing case study in order to gain insight into major air carrier needs; developing and prototyping icing display concepts based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research's existing diagnostic and forecast experimental icing products; and conducting a usability study for the prototyped icing display concepts.

Association between divorce and risks for acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Dupre, Matthew E; George, Linda K; Liu, Guangya; Peterson, Eric D

2015-05-01

Divorce is a major life stressor that can have economic, emotional, and physical health consequences. However, the cumulative association between divorce and risks for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. This study investigated the association between lifetime exposure to divorce and the incidence of AMI in US adults. We used nationally representative data from a prospective cohort of ever-married adults aged 45 to 80 years (n=15,827) who were followed biennially from 1992 to 2010. Approximately 14% of men and 19% of women were divorced at baseline and more than one third of the cohort had ≥1 divorce in their lifetime. In 200,524 person-years of follow-up, 8% (n=1211) of the cohort had an AMI and age-specific rates of AMI were consistently higher in those who were divorced compared with those who were continuously married (P<0.05). Results from competing-risk hazard models showed that AMI risks were significantly higher in women who had 1 divorce (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.55), ≥2 divorces (hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.41), and among the remarried (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.70) compared with continuously married women after adjusting for multiple risk factors. Multivariable-adjusted risks were elevated only in men with a history of ≥2 divorces (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.66) compared with continuously married men. Men who remarried had no significant risk for AMI. Interaction terms for sex were not statistically significant. Divorce is a significant risk factor for AMI. The risks associated with multiple divorces are especially high in women and are not reduced with remarriage. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Communication strategies to address geohydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvati, Paola; Pernice, Umberto; Bianchi, Cinzia; Marchesini, Ivan; Fiorucci, Federica; Guzzetti, Fausto

2016-06-01

Floods and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The social and economic impact of floods and landslides in Italy is severe, and strategies to target the mitigation of the effects of these phenomena are needed. In the last few years, the scientific community has started to use web technology to communicate information on geohydrological hazards and the associated risks. However, the communication is often targeted at technical experts. In the attempt to communicate relevant information on geohydrological hazards with potential human consequences to a broader audience, we designed the POpoLazione A RISchio (POLARIS) website. POLARIS publishes accurate information on geohydrological risk to the population of Italy, including periodic reports on landslide and flood risk, analyses of specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events. By monitoring the access to POLARIS in the 21-month period between January 2014 and October 2015, we found that access increased during particularly damaging geohydrological events and immediately after the website was advertised by press releases. POLARIS demonstrates that the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences, exploiting the role of mass media and social media. The strategies can help multiple audiences understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviours, contributing to increasing the resilience of the population to geohydrological risk.

Assessment and application of national environmental databases and mapping tools at the local level to two community case studies.

PubMed

Hammond, Davyda; Conlon, Kathryn; Barzyk, Timothy; Chahine, Teresa; Zartarian, Valerie; Schultz, Brad

2011-03-01

Communities are concerned over pollution levels and seek methods to systematically identify and prioritize the environmental stressors in their communities. Geographic information system (GIS) maps of environmental information can be useful tools for communities in their assessment of environmental-pollution-related risks. Databases and mapping tools that supply community-level estimates of ambient concentrations of hazardous pollutants, risk, and potential health impacts can provide relevant information for communities to understand, identify, and prioritize potential exposures and risk from multiple sources. An assessment of existing databases and mapping tools was conducted as part of this study to explore the utility of publicly available databases, and three of these databases were selected for use in a community-level GIS mapping application. Queried data from the U.S. EPA's National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment, Air Quality System, and National Emissions Inventory were mapped at the appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions for identifying risks of exposure to air pollutants in two communities. The maps combine monitored and model-simulated pollutant and health risk estimates, along with local survey results, to assist communities with the identification of potential exposure sources and pollution hot spots. Findings from this case study analysis will provide information to advance the development of new tools to assist communities with environmental risk assessments and hazard prioritization. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of hazardous air pollutant emission inventory from municipal solid waste incineration in China.

PubMed

Tian, Hezhong; Gao, Jiajia; Lu, Long; Zhao, Dan; Cheng, Ke; Qiu, Peipei

2012-09-18

A multiple-year emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), including particulate matter (PM), SO(2), NO(x), CO, HCl, As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), discharged from municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration in China has been established for the period 2003-2010 by using the best available emission factors and annual activity data. Our results show that the total emissions have rapidly amounted to 28,471.1 t of NO(x), 12,062.1 t of SO(2), 6500.5 t of CO, 4654.6 t of PM, 3609.1 t of HCl, 69.5 t of Sb, 36.7 t of Hg, 9.4 t of Pb, 4.4 t of Cr, 2.8 t of Ni, 926.7 kg of Cd, 231.7 kg of As, and 23.6 g of PCDD/Fs as TEQ (toxic equivalent quantity) by the year 2010. The majority of HAP emissions are concentrated in the eastern central and southeastern areas of China where most MSW incineration plants are built and put into operation. Between 2003 and 2010, provinces always ranking in the top three with largest HAPs emissions are Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. To better understand the emissions of these HAPs and to adopt effective measures to prevent poisoning risks, more specific field-test data collection is necessary.

Identifying Changes of Complex Flood Dynamics with Recurrence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, D.; Merz, B.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Temporal changes in flood hazard system are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include complex processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defense, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. Moreover hydrological time series (i.e. discharge) are often subject to measurement errors, such as rating curve error especially in the case of extremes where observation are actually derived through extrapolation. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flood hazard in Germany. The recurrence plot is known as an effective tool to visualize the dynamics of phase space trajectories i.e. constructed from a time series by using an embedding dimension and a time delay, and it is known to be effective in analyzing non-stationary and non-linear time series. Sensitivity of the common measurement errors and noise on recurrence analysis will also be analyzed and evaluated against conventional methods. The emphasis will be on the identification of characteristic recurrence properties that could associate typical dynamic to certain flood events.

Intersection of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status in Mortality After Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Yang, Juan; John, Esther M.; Kurian, Allison W.; Cheng, Iona; Leung, Rita; Koo, Jocelyn; Monroe, Kristine R.; Henderson, Brian E.; Bernstein, Leslie; Lu, Yani; Kwan, Marilyn L.; Sposto, Richard; Vigen, Cheryl L. P.; Wu, Anna H.; Keegan, Theresa H. M.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin

2015-01-01

We investigated social disparities in breast cancer (BC) mortality, leveraging data from the California Breast Cancer Survivorship Consortium. The associations of race/ethnicity, education, and neighborhood SES (nSES) with all-cause and BC-specific mortality were assessed among 9372 women with BC (diagnosed 1993–2007 in California with follow-up through 2010) from four racial/ ethnic groups [African American, Asian American, Latina, and non-Latina (NL) White] using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared to NL White women with high-education/high-nSES, higher all-cause mortality was observed among NL White women with high-education/ low-nSES [hazard ratio (HR) (95 % confidence interval) 1.24 (1.08–1.43)], and African American women with low-nSES, regardless of education [high education HR 1.24 (1.03–1.49); low-education HR 1.19 (0.99–1.44)]. Latina women with low-education/high-nSES had lower all-cause mortality [HR 0.70 (0.54–0.90)] and non-significant lower mortality was observed for Asian American women, regardless of their education and nSES. Similar patterns were seen for BC-specific mortality. Individual- and neighborhood-level measures of SES interact with race/ ethnicity to impact mortality after BC diagnosis. Considering the joint impacts of these social factors may offer insights to understanding inequalities by multiple social determinants of health. PMID:26072260

Geometry of Pt(IV) in H 2PtCl 6 aqueous solution: An X-ray absorption spectroscopic investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Chu, Wangsheng; Wang, Lei; Wu, Ziyu

2009-02-01

The noble metal ions play an important role in many chemical reactions, but at the present time they represent also potentially new environmental contaminants. There is relatively little information available to adequately assess the potential health hazards, so that to evaluate the potential hazards and identify the necessary actions to reduce the risks associated with exposure to these metals and their compounds it is important to understand the local structure around noble metal ions. In this contribution, the local coordination around platinum (IV) ions e.g., Pt 4+ in aqueous solution, has been investigated by using X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). X-ray absorption near-edge spectra (XANES) of both [PtCl 6] 2- and [PtCl 4(OH) 2] 2- in an aqueous solution have been calculated using FEFF8.2 and both are characterized by an octahedral geometry. From these calculations, we may also assign a characteristic post-edge feature to a contribution of Cl d-states. From the EXAFS analysis we also determined the corresponding Pt bond distances, e.g., 2.33 Å for the Pt-Cl distance and 2.03 Å for the Pt-O distance in these aqueous solutions. The same analysis provides evidence that the peaks in the Fourier transform at about 4.0 Å are due to multiple scattering collinear Cl-Pt-Cl contributions.

Hazardous Materials Verification and Limited Characterization Report on Sodium and Caustic Residuals in Materials and Fuel Complex Facilities MFC-799/799A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gary Mecham

2010-08-01

This report is a companion to the Facilities Condition and Hazard Assessment for Materials and Fuel Complex Sodium Processing Facilities MFC-799/799A and Nuclear Calibration Laboratory MFC-770C (referred to as the Facilities Condition and Hazards Assessment). This report specifically responds to the requirement of Section 9.2, Item 6, of the Facilities Condition and Hazards Assessment to provide an updated assessment and verification of the residual hazardous materials remaining in the Sodium Processing Facilities processing system. The hazardous materials of concern are sodium and sodium hydroxide (caustic). The information supplied in this report supports the end-point objectives identified in the Transition Planmore » for Multiple Facilities at the Materials and Fuels Complex, Advanced Test Reactor, Central Facilities Area, and Power Burst Facility, as well as the deactivation and decommissioning critical decision milestone 1, as specified in U.S. Department of Energy Guide 413.3-8, “Environmental Management Cleanup Projects.” Using a tailored approach and based on information obtained through a combination of process knowledge, emergency management hazardous assessment documentation, and visual inspection, this report provides sufficient detail regarding the quantity of hazardous materials for the purposes of facility transfer; it also provides that further characterization/verification of these materials is unnecessary.« less

A stereo-vision hazard-detection algorithm to increase planetary lander autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woicke, Svenja; Mooij, Erwin

2016-05-01

For future landings on any celestial body, increasing the lander autonomy as well as decreasing risk are primary objectives. Both risk reduction and an increase in autonomy can be achieved by including hazard detection and avoidance in the guidance, navigation, and control loop. One of the main challenges in hazard detection and avoidance is the reconstruction of accurate elevation models, as well as slope and roughness maps. Multiple methods for acquiring the inputs for hazard maps are available. The main distinction can be made between active and passive methods. Passive methods (cameras) have budgetary advantages compared to active sensors (radar, light detection and ranging). However, it is necessary to proof that these methods deliver sufficiently good maps. Therefore, this paper discusses hazard detection using stereo vision. To facilitate a successful landing not more than 1% wrong detections (hazards that are not identified) are allowed. Based on a sensitivity analysis it was found that using a stereo set-up at a baseline of ≤ 2 m is feasible at altitudes of ≤ 200 m defining false positives of less than 1%. It was thus shown that stereo-based hazard detection is an effective means to decrease the landing risk and increase the lander autonomy. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm is a promising candidate for future landers.

Differential Exposure to Hazardous Air Pollution in the United States: A Multilevel Analysis of Urbanization and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation

PubMed Central

Young, Gary S.; Fox, Mary A.; Trush, Michael; Kanarek, Norma; Glass, Thomas A.; Curriero, Frank C.

2012-01-01

Population exposure to multiple chemicals in air presents significant challenges for environmental public health. Air quality regulations distinguish criteria air pollutants (CAPs) (e.g., ozone, PM2.5) from hazardous air pollutants (HAPs)—187 chemicals which include carcinogens and others that are associated with respiratory, cardiovascular, neurological and numerous other non-cancer health effects. Evidence of the public’s cumulative exposure and the health effects of HAPs are quite limited. A multilevel model is used to assess differential exposure to HAP respiratory, neurological, and cancer hazards (2005) related to the Townsend Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (TSI), after adjustment for regional population size and economic activity, and local population density. We found significant positive associations between tract TSI and respiratory and cancer HAP exposure hazards, and smaller effects for neurological HAPs. Tracts in the top quintile of TSI have between 38%–60% higher HAP exposure than the bottom quintile; increasing population size from the bottom quintile to the top quintile modifies HAP exposure hazard related to TSI, increasing cancer HAP exposure hazard by 6% to 20% and increasing respiratory HAP exposure hazard by 12% to 27%. This study demonstrates the value of social epidemiological methods for analyzing differential exposure and advancing cumulative risk assessment. PMID:22829799

Differential exposure to hazardous air pollution in the United States: a multilevel analysis of urbanization and neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation.

PubMed

Young, Gary S; Fox, Mary A; Trush, Michael; Kanarek, Norma; Glass, Thomas A; Curriero, Frank C

2012-06-01

Population exposure to multiple chemicals in air presents significant challenges for environmental public health. Air quality regulations distinguish criteria air pollutants (CAPs) (e.g., ozone, PM2.5) from hazardous air pollutants (HAPs)-187 chemicals which include carcinogens and others that are associated with respiratory, cardiovascular, neurological and numerous other non-cancer health effects. Evidence of the public's cumulative exposure and the health effects of HAPs are quite limited. A multilevel model is used to assess differential exposure to HAP respiratory, neurological, and cancer hazards (2005) related to the Townsend Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (TSI), after adjustment for regional population size and economic activity, and local population density. We found significant positive associations between tract TSI and respiratory and cancer HAP exposure hazards, and smaller effects for neurological HAPs. Tracts in the top quintile of TSI have between 38%-60% higher HAP exposure than the bottom quintile; increasing population size from the bottom quintile to the top quintile modifies HAP exposure hazard related to TSI, increasing cancer HAP exposure hazard by 6% to 20% and increasing respiratory HAP exposure hazard by 12% to 27%. This study demonstrates the value of social epidemiological methods for analyzing differential exposure and advancing cumulative risk assessment.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

Spatial Databases for CalVO Volcanoes: Current Status and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, D. W.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Volcano Observatory (CalVO) aims to advance scientific understanding of volcanic processes and to lessen harmful impacts of volcanic activity in California and Nevada. Within CalVO's area of responsibility, ten volcanoes or volcanic centers have been identified by a national volcanic threat assessment in support of developing the U.S. National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) as posing moderate, high, or very high threats to surrounding communities based on their recent eruptive histories and their proximity to vulnerable people, property, and infrastructure. To better understand the extent of potential hazards at these and other volcanoes and volcanic centers, the USGS Volcano Science Center (VSC) is continually compiling spatial databases of volcano information, including: geologic mapping, hazards assessment maps, locations of geochemical and geochronological samples, and the distribution of volcanic vents. This digital mapping effort has been ongoing for over 15 years and early databases are being converted to match recent datasets compiled with new data models designed for use in: 1) generating hazard zones, 2) evaluating risk to population and infrastructure, 3) numerical hazard modeling, and 4) display and query on the CalVO as well as other VSC and USGS websites. In these capacities, spatial databases of CalVO volcanoes and their derivative map products provide an integrated and readily accessible framework of VSC hazards science to colleagues, emergency managers, and the general public.

Risk analysis for roadways subjected to multiple landslide-related hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, Jordi; Mavrouli, Olga

2014-05-01

Roadways through mountainous terrain often involve cuts and landslide areas whose stability is precarious and require protection and stabilization works. To optimize the allocation of resources, government and technical offices are increasingly interested in both the risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis has to consider the hazard occurrence and the consequences. The consequences can be both direct and indirect. The former include the costs regarding the repair of the roadway, the damage of vehicles and the potential fatalities, while the latter refer to the costs related to the diversion of vehicles, the excess of distance travelled, the time differences, and tolls. The type of slope instabilities that may affect a roadway may vary and its effects as well. Most current approaches either consider a single hazardous phenomenon each time, or if applied at small (for example national) scale, they do not take into account local conditions at each section of the roadway. The objective of this work is the development of a simple and comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the risk due to multiple hazards along roadways, integrating different landslide types that include rockfalls, debris flows and considering as well the potential failure of retaining walls. To quantify risk, all hazards are expressed with a common term: their probability of occurrence. The methodology takes into consideration the specific local conditions along the roadway. For rockfalls and debris flow a variety of methods for assessing the probability of occurrence exists. To assess the annual probability of failure of retaining walls we use an indicator-based model that provides a hazard index. The model parameters consist in the design safety factor, and further anchorage design and construction parameters. The probability of failure is evaluated in function of the hazard index and next corrected (in terms of order of magnitude) according to in situ observations for increase of two dynamic factors: the service load and the wall deformation. The consequences are then calculated for each hazard type according to its characteristics (mechanism, magnitude, frequency). The difference of this method in comparison with other methodologies for landslide-related hazards lies in the hazard scenarios and consequence profiles that are investigated. The depth of analysis permits to account for local conditions either concerning the hazard or the consequences (the latter with respect to the very particular characteristics of the roadway such as traffic, number of lanes, velocity…). Furthermore it provides an extensive list of quantitative risk descriptors, including both individual and collective ones. The methodology was made automatic using the data sheets by Microsoft Excel. The results can be used to support decision-taking for the planning of protection measures. Gaps in knowledge and restrictions are discussed as well.

Dust Measurements Onboard the Deep Space Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horanyi, M.; Kempf, S.; Malaspina, D.; Poppe, A.; Srama, R.; Sternovsky, Z.; Szalay, J.

2018-02-01

A dust instrument onboard the Deep Space Gateway will revolutionize our understanding of the dust environment at 1 AU, help our understanding of the evolution of the solar system, and improve dust hazard models for the safety of crewed and robotic missions.

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Jonathan N.; Moore, Steven C.; Lim, Unhee; Park, Yikyung; Baris, Dalsu; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Matthews, Charles E.; Gibson, Todd M.; Hartge, Patricia; Purdue, Mark P.

2013-01-01

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995–1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996–1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk. PMID:23543160

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-01-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ohlmacher, G.C.; Davis, J.C.

2003-01-01

Landslides in the hilly terrain along the Kansas and Missouri rivers in northeastern Kansas have caused millions of dollars in property damage during the last decade. To address this problem, a statistical method called multiple logistic regression has been used to create a landslide-hazard map for Atchison, Kansas, and surrounding areas. Data included digitized geology, slopes, and landslides, manipulated using ArcView GIS. Logistic regression relates predictor variables to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within geographic cells and uses the relationship to produce a map showing the probability of future landslides, given local slopes and geologic units. Results indicated that slope is the most important variable for estimating landslide hazard in the study area. Geologic units consisting mostly of shale, siltstone, and sandstone were most susceptible to landslides. Soil type and aspect ratio were considered but excluded from the final analysis because these variables did not significantly add to the predictive power of the logistic regression. Soil types were highly correlated with the geologic units, and no significant relationships existed between landslides and slope aspect. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Sunlight exposure and sun sensitivity associated with disability progression in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

D'hooghe, M B; Haentjens, P; Nagels, G; Garmyn, M; De Keyser, J

2012-04-01

Sunlight and vitamin D have been inversely associated with the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We investigated sunlight exposure and sun sensitivity in relation to disability progression in MS. We conducted a survey among persons with MS, registered by the Flemish MS society, Belgium, and stratified data according to relapsing-onset and progressive-onset MS. We used Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses with time to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 6 as outcome measure. Hazard ratios for the time from onset and from birth were calculated for the potentially predictive variables, adjusting for age at onset, gender and immunomodulatory treatment. 704 (51.3%) of the 1372 respondents had reached EDSS 6. In relapsing-onset MS, respondents reporting equal or higher levels of sun exposure than persons of the same age in the last 10 years had a decreased risk of reaching EDSS 6. In progressive-onset MS, increased sun sensitivity was associated with an increased hazard of reaching EDSS 6. The association of higher sun exposure with a better outcome in relapsing-onset MS may be explained by either a protective effect or reverse causality. Mechanisms underlying sun sensitivity might influence progression in progressive-onset MS.

How well do we understand oil spill hazard mapping?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Pinardi, Nadia

2017-04-01

In simple terms, we could describe the marine oil spill hazard as related to three main factors: the spill event itself, the spill trajectory and the arrival and adsorption of oil to the shore or beaching. Regarding the first factor, spill occurrence rates and magnitude distribution and their respective uncertainties have been estimated mainly relying on maritime casualty reports. Abascal et al. (2010) and Sepp Neves et al. (2015) demonstrated for the Prestige (Spain, 2002) and Jiyeh (Lebanon, 2006) spills that ensemble numerical oil spill simulations can generate reliable estimaes of the most likely oil trajectories and impacted coasts. Although paramount to estimate the spill impacts on coastal resources, the third component of the oil spill hazard (i.e. oil beaching) is still subject of discussion. Analysts have employed different methodologies to estimate the coastal component of the hazard relying, for instance, on the beaching frequency solely, the time which a given coastal segment is subject to oil concentrations above a certain preset threshold, percentages of oil beached compared to the original spilled volume and many others. Obviously, results are not comparable and sometimes not consistent with the present knowledge about the environmental impacts of oil spills. The observed inconsistency in the hazard mapping methodologies suggests that there is still a lack of understanding of the beaching component of the oil spill hazard itself. The careful statistical description of the beaching process could finally set a common ground in oil spill hazard mapping studies as observed for other hazards such as earthquakes and landslides. This paper is the last of a series of efforts to standardize oil spill hazard and risk assessments through an ISO-compliant framework (IT - OSRA, see Sepp Neves et al., (2015)). We performed two large ensemble oil spill experiments addressing uncertainties in the spill characteristics and location, and meteocean conditions for two different areas (Algarve and Uruguay) aiming at quantifying the hazard due to accidental (large volumes and rare events) and operational (frequent and usually involving small volumes) spills associated with the maritime traffic. In total, over 60,000 240h-long simulations were run and the statistical behavior of the beached concentrations found was described. The concentration distributions for both study areas were successfully fit using a Gamma distribution demonstrating the generality of our conclusions. The oil spill hazard and its uncertainties were quantified for accidental and operational events relying on the statistical distribution parameters. Therefore, the hazard estimates were comparable between areas and allowed to identify priority coastal segments for protection and rank sources of hazard.

A review on recent progress in observations, and health effects of bioaerosols.

PubMed

Humbal, Charmi; Gautam, Sneha; Trivedi, Ujwalkumar

2018-06-06

Bioaerosol is a particulate mixture of solid and semi-solid matter combined with biotic matter like pollens, microbes and their fragments. The present review stresses on a cumulative understanding of sources, components, quantification and distribution of bioaerosols with respect to size, and its significant impacts on human health. The present review will be instrumental in devising strategies to understand and manage bioaerosols and reducing their human exposure and associated health hazards. The present review aims explore the relationship between particle and associated biological agents responsible for behaviours like dispersal, total potential health hazards and toxicology level during exposure to bioaerosol. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrated Safety Analysis Teams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherholt, Jonathan C.

2008-01-01

Today's complex systems require understanding beyond one person s capability to comprehend. Each system requires a team to divide the system into understandable subsystems which can then be analyzed with an Integrated Hazard Analysis. The team must have both specific experiences and diversity of experience. Safety experience and system understanding are not always manifested in one individual. Group dynamics make the difference between success and failure as well as the difference between a difficult task and a rewarding experience. There are examples in the news which demonstrate the need to connect the pieces of a system into a complete picture. The Columbia disaster is now a standard example of a low consequence hazard in one part of the system; the External Tank is a catastrophic hazard cause for a companion subsystem, the Space Shuttle Orbiter. The interaction between the hardware, the manufacturing process, the handling, and the operations contributed to the problem. Each of these had analysis performed, but who constituted the team which integrated this analysis together? This paper will explore some of the methods used for dividing up a complex system; and how one integration team has analyzed the parts. How this analysis has been documented in one particular launch space vehicle case will also be discussed.

Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

2012-12-01

Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular earthquake drills and long periods of quiescence between large earthquake events. 60% of respondents had participated in earthquake drills; however, less than 45% provided the correct response when asked what they would do if an earthquake were to occur. In summary, knowledge of natural hazards and proximity to hazard sources was found to be low or inaccurate, which corresponds to a low perception of risk. Awareness of evacuation routes, emergency response or coping protocol for natural hazards was also found to be low, suggesting this large, semi-transient population lacks the understanding of proper preparation and response to a natural hazard. These results indicate the need for better education concerning the risks of natural hazards in this region and the steps for better preparedness.

CHEMISTRY FOR THE SAFETY MAN. SAFETY IN INDUSTRY--ENVIRONMENTAL AND CHEMICAL HAZARDS SERVICES.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CESTRONE, PATRICK F.

THIS BULLETIN, ONE OF A SERIES ON SAFETY IN INDUSTRY, IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND WHICH WILL ENABLE THE SAFETY MAN TO UNDERSTAND SOME OF THE PRINCIPLES APPLIED IN CONTROLLING CHEMICAL HAZARDS. IT WAS PREPARED IN THE OFFICE OF OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY, DIVISION OF PROGRAMING AND RESEARCH, BUREAU OF LABOR STANDARDS. TOPICS INCLUDE (1) WHAT IS…

Fire Safety Power. Sixth Grade. Fire Safety for Texans: Fire and Burn Prevention Curriculum Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Commission on Fire Protection, Austin.

This booklet comprises the sixth grade component of a series of curriculum guides on fire and burn prevention. Designed to meet the age-specific needs of sixth grade students, its objectives include: (1) developing a comprehensive understanding of fire physics, (2) evaluating electrical hazards and how to respond to those hazards, and (3)…

Financial analysis of fuel treatments on national forests in the Western United States.

Treesearch

Roger D. Fight; R. James Barbour

2006-01-01

The purpose of this note is to provide a starting point for discussion of fire hazard reduction treatments that meet the full range of management objectives, including budget priorities. Thoughtful design requires an understanding not only of the physical and biological outcomes, but also the costs and potential revenues of applying variations of fire hazard reduction...

Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

PubMed

Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

2017-04-01

Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

For Better or For Worse: Environmental Health Promotion in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Environmental Health Education (EHE) is most effective when it incorporates environmental science, risk education, and health education. When paired with the local knowledge of community members, EHE can promote health equity and community action, especially for socially disadvantaged communities, which are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards. Developing EHE programs that inform residents about toxic exposures that damage their health and affect their quality of life is critical for them to understand their true risk. The community of interest is a public housing development surrounded by landfills, hazardous waste sites, and manufacturing facilities located in a Midwestern city of the United States (Chicago, Illinois). An environmental justice organization, People for Community Recovery (PCR), was the community partner. Data was collected during one week in March 2009 from community residents using both qualitative and quantitative research methods, including both a focus group and a survey instrument provided to two different resident groups, to understand their attitudes/beliefs about environmental hazards, including exposure to hazardous wastes, landfills, and lead, and their preferences for EHE. The data was analyzed using standard qualitative analytical procedures and statistical software, when appropriate. This research assesses the impact that Environmental Health Education (EHE) can have on: improved civic engagement (i.e., increased int

The Human Dimension of Flood Risk: Towards Building Resilience in Vulnerable Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, K.

2015-12-01

Significant advancements have been made in hydrodynamic modeling for natural disasters such as floods; however, it is vital to better understand how to effectively communicate risk to promote hazard preparedness. In many poor communities throughout the world, individuals live in areas that are hazardous because of the conditions of both the natural environment and built environment. Furthermore, environmental risks from the natural environment can be exacerbated by human development. Planning, behavioral change, and strategic actions taken by community members can mitigate risk, however, it is critical to first understand the perspective of those who are most vulnerable to (1) better communicate risk and (2) improve hazardous conditions. Thus, the Flood Resilient Infrastructure and Sustainable Environments (FloodRISE) project conducted a household level survey of over 350 participants in Los Laureles Canyon, a colonia in Tijuana, Mexico that is vulnerable to flooding. Preliminary results from the study will be discussed, specifically addressing: (1) the relationship between compounding risk factors, such as flooding and erosion, and (2) data that speaks to next steps for engaging community in the co-generation of local knowledge about flood hazards, and other strategies that contribute to more flood resilient communities.

Prognostic factors in multiple myeloma: selection using Cox's proportional hazard model.

PubMed

Pasqualetti, P; Collacciani, A; Maccarone, C; Casale, R

1996-01-01

The pretreatment characteristics of 210 patients with multiple myeloma, observed between 1980 and 1994, were evaluated as potential prognostic factors for survival. Multivariate analysis according to Cox's proportional hazard model identified in the 160 dead patients with myeloma, among 26 different single prognostic variables, the following factors in order of importance: beta 2-microglobulin; bone marrow plasma cell percentage, hemoglobinemia, degree of lytic bone lesions, serum creatinine, and serum albumin. By analysis of these variables a prognostic index (PI), that considers the regression coefficients derived by Cox's model of all significant factors, was obtained. Using this it was possible to separate the whole patient group into three stages: stage I (PI < 1.485, 67 patients), stage II (PI: 1.485-2.090, 76 patients), and stage III (PI > 2.090, 67 patients), with a median survivals of 68, 36 and 13 months (P < 0.0001), respectively. Also the responses to therapy (P < 0.0001) and the survival curves (P < 0.00001) presented significant differences among the three subgroups. Knowledge of these factors could be of value in predicting prognosis and in planning therapy in patients with multiple myeloma.

Read buffer optimizations to support compiler-assisted multiple instruction retry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alewine, N. J.; Fuchs, W. K.; Hwu, W. M.

1993-01-01

Multiple instruction retry is a recovery mechanism for transient processor faults. We previously developed a compiler-assisted approach to multiple instruction ferry in which a read buffer of size 2N (where N represents the maximum instruction rollback distance) was used to resolve some data hazards while the compiler resolved the remaining hazards. The compiler-assisted scheme was shown to reduce the performance overhead and/or hardware complexity normally associated with hardware-only retry schemes. This paper examines the size and design of the read buffer. We establish a practical lower bound and average size requirement for the read buffer by modifying the scheme to save only the data required for rollback. The study measures the effect on the performance of a DECstation 3100 running ten application programs using six read buffer configurations with varying read buffer sizes. Two alternative configurations are shown to be the most efficient and differed depending on whether split-cycle-saves are assumed. Up to a 55 percent read buffer size reduction is achievable with an average reduction of 39 percent given the most efficient read buffer configuration and a variety of applications.

Oligoclonal bands predict multiple sclerosis in children with optic neuritis.

PubMed

Heussinger, Nicole; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Gburek-Augustat, Janina; Jenke, Andreas; Vollrath, Gesa; Korinthenberg, Rudolf; Hofstetter, Peter; Meyer, Sascha; Brecht, Isabel; Kornek, Barbara; Herkenrath, Peter; Schimmel, Mareike; Wenner, Kirsten; Häusler, Martin; Lutz, Soeren; Karenfort, Michael; Blaschek, Astrid; Smitka, Martin; Karch, Stephanie; Piepkorn, Martin; Rostasy, Kevin; Lücke, Thomas; Weber, Peter; Trollmann, Regina; Klepper, Jörg; Häussler, Martin; Hofmann, Regina; Weissert, Robert; Merkenschlager, Andreas; Buttmann, Mathias

2015-06-01

We retrospectively evaluated predictors of conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) in 357 children with isolated optic neuritis (ON) as a first demyelinating event who had a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Multiple Cox proportional-hazards regressions revealed abnormal cranial magnet resonance imaging (cMRI; hazard ratio [HR] = 5.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.39-10.39, p < 0.001), presence of cerebrospinal fluid immunoglobulin G oligoclonal bands (OCB; HR = 3.69, 95% CI = 2.32-5.86, p < 0.001), and age (HR = 1.08 per year of age, 95% CI = 1.02-1.13, p = 0.003) as independent predictors of conversion, whereas sex and laterality (unilateral vs bilateral) had no influence. Combined cMRI and OCB positivity indicated a 26.84-fold higher HR for developing MS compared to double negativity (95% CI = 12.26-58.74, p < 0.001). Accordingly, cerebrospinal fluid analysis may supplement cMRI to determine the risk of MS in children with isolated ON. © 2015 American Neurological Association.

A Possible Paradigm for the Mitigation of the Adverse Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswathanarayana, U.

2001-05-01

The proneness of a country or region to a given natural hazard depends upon its geographical location, physiography, geological and structural setting, landuse/landcover situation, and biophysical and socioeconomic environments (e.g. cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, earthquakes in Turkey, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa). While the natural hazards themselves cannot be prevented, it is possible to mitigate their adverse effects, by a knowledge-based, environmentally-sustainable approach, involving the stakeholder communities: (i) by being prepared: on the basis of the understanding of the land conditions which are prone to a given hazard and the processes which could culminate in damage to life and property (e.g. planting of dense-rooted vegetation belts to protect against landslides in the earthquake-prone areas), (ii) by avoiding improper anthropogenic activities that may exacerbate a hazard (e.g. deforestation accentuating the floods and droughts), and (iii) by putting a hazard to a beneficial use, where possible (groundwater recharging of flood waters), etc. Mitigation strategies need to be custom-made for each country/region by integrating the biophysical and socioeconomic components. The proposed paradigm is illustrated in respect of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), which is based on the adoption of three approaches: (i) Typology approach, involving the interpretation of remotely sensed data, to predict (say) temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, (ii) "black box" approach, whereby the potential environmental consequences of an EWE are projected on the basis of previously known case histories, and (iii) Information Technology approach, to translate advanced technical information in the form of "virtual" do-it-yourself steps understandable to lay public.

Acceptability of screening for early detection of liver disease in hazardous/harmful drinkers in primary care.

PubMed

Eyles, Caroline; Moore, Michael; Sheron, Nicholas; Roderick, Paul; O'Brien, Wendy; Leydon, Geraldine M

2013-08-01

It is estimated that one-quarter of adults in the UK drink at harmful/hazardous levels leading to increased mortality and alcohol liver disease (ALD). The Alcohol Liver Disease Detection Study (ALDDeS) aimed to test out in primary care the feasibility of alcohol misuse screening in adults, using the AUDIT questionnaire, and to assess screening harmful/hazardous alcohol users for ALD using newer non-invasive serum markers of fibrosis. To explore patients' experiences of taking part in ALDDeS and understanding of the delivery and process of screening for ALD using self-report questionnaires and feedback of liver fibrosis risk using levels of non-invasive serum markers. A nested qualitative study based in five primary care practices in the UK. From a sample of patients who were identified as drinking at harmful/hazardous levels, 30 participants were identified by maximum variation sampling for qualitative in-depth interviews. Using the principles of constant comparison the transcribed interviews were thematically analysed. Receiving a postal AUDIT questionnaire was viewed as acceptable by participants. For some completing the AUDIT increased awareness of their hazardous alcohol use and a positive blood test indicating liver fibrosis was a catalyst for behaviour change. For others, a negative blood test result provided a licence to continue drinking at hazardous levels. A limited understanding of safe drinking and of ALD was common. Educational and training needs of primary care professionals must be taken into account, so that patients with marker levels indicating low risk of fibrosis are correctly informed about the likely risks of continuing to drink at the same levels.

EVA Hazards due to TPS Inspection and Repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Christine E.

2007-01-01

Tile inspection and repair activities have implicit hazards associated with them. When an Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) crewmember and associated hardware are added into the equation, additional hazards are introduced. Potential hazards to the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), the Orbiter or the crew member themselves are created. In order to accurately assess the risk of performing a TPS inspection or repair, an accurate evaluation of potential hazards and how adequately these hazards are controlled is essential. The EMU could become damaged due to sharp edges, protrusions, thermal extremes, molten metal or impact with the Orbiter. Tools, tethers and the presence of a crew member in the vicinity of the Orbiter Thermal Protection System (TPS) pose hazards to the Orbiter. Hazards such as additional tile or Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) damage from a loose tool, safety tethers, crewmember or arm impact are introduced. Additionally, there are hazards to the crew which should be addressed. Crew hazards include laser injury, electrical shock, inability to return to the airlock for EMU failures or Orbiter rapid safing scenarios, as well as the potential inadvertent release of a crew member from the arm/boom. The aforementioned hazards are controlled in various ways. Generally, these controls are addressed operationally versus by design, as the majority of the interfaces are to the Orbiter and the Orbiter design did not originally account for tile repair. The Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS), for instance, was originally designed to deploy experiments, and therefore has insufficient design controls for retention of the Orbiter Boom Sensor System (OBSS). Although multiple methods to repair the Orbiter TPS exist, the majority of the hazards are applicable no matter which specific repair method is being performed. TPS Inspection performed via EVA also presents some of the same hazards. Therefore, the hazards common to all TPS inspection or repair methods will be addressed.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment in the intraplate environment: The New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2007-01-01

Although the causes of large intraplate earthquakes are still not fully understood, they pose certain hazard and risk to societies. Estimating hazard and risk in these regions is difficult because of lack of earthquake records. The New Madrid seismic zone is one such region where large and rare intraplate earthquakes (M = 7.0 or greater) pose significant hazard and risk. Many different definitions of hazard and risk have been used, and the resulting estimates differ dramatically. In this paper, seismic hazard is defined as the natural phenomenon generated by earthquakes, such as ground motion, and is quantified by two parameters: a level of hazard and its occurrence frequency or mean recurrence interval; seismic risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of a specific level of seismic hazard over a certain time and is quantified by three parameters: probability, a level of hazard, and exposure time. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), a commonly used method for estimating seismic hazard and risk, derives a relationship between a ground motion parameter and its return period (hazard curve). The return period is not an independent temporal parameter but a mathematical extrapolation of the recurrence interval of earthquakes and the uncertainty of ground motion. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and use PSHA. A new method is proposed and applied here for estimating seismic hazard in the New Madrid seismic zone. This method provides hazard estimates that are consistent with the state of our knowledge and can be easily applied to other intraplate regions. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Reducing risks by transforming landscapes: Cross-scale effects of land-use changes on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Fedele, Giacomo; Locatelli, Bruno; Djoudi, Houria; Colloff, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Globally, anthropogenic environmental change is exacerbating the already vulnerable conditions of many people and ecosystems. In order to obtain food, water, raw materials and shelter, rural people modify forests and other ecosystems, affecting the supply of ecosystem services that contribute to livelihoods and well-being. Despite widespread awareness of the nature and extent of multiple impacts of land-use changes, there remains limited understanding of how these impacts affect trade-offs among ecosystem services and their beneficiaries across spatial scales. We assessed how rural communities in two forested landscapes in Indonesia have changed land uses over the last 20 years to adapt their livelihoods that were at risk from multiple hazards. We estimated the impact of these adaptation strategies on the supply of ecosystem services by comparing different benefits provided to people from these land uses (products, water, carbon, and biodiversity), using forest inventories, remote sensing, and interviews. Local people converted forests to rubber plantations, reforested less productive croplands, protected forests on hillsides, and planted trees in gardens. Our results show that land-use decisions were propagated at the landscape scale due to reinforcing loops, whereby local actors perceived that such decisions contributed positively to livelihoods by reducing risks and generating co-benefits. When land-use changes become sufficiently widespread, they affect the supply of multiple ecosystem services, with impacts beyond the local scale. Thus, adaptation implemented at the local-scale may not address development and climate adaptation challenges at regional or national scale (e.g. as part of UN Sustainable Development Goals or actions taken under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement). A better understanding of the context and impacts of local ecosystem-based adaptation is fundamental to the scaling up of land management policies and practices designed to reduce risks and improve well-being for people at different scales.

Occupational exposure to glycol ethers: implications for occupational health nurses.

PubMed

Snow, J E

1994-09-01

1. Evaluation of workplace exposure to reproductive hazards is difficult and is often confounded by occupational exposure to multiple agents and exposure to non-occupational factors. 2. A growing body of evidence from animal and human study data supports a causal association between occupational exposure to certain glycol ethers and adverse reproductive outcomes. 3. Occupational health nurses providing services to employees exposed to glycol ethers should remain knowledgeable about the results of epidemiologic studies and current trends in the regulation of glycol ethers in industry. 4. Occupational health nurses are in a key position to reduce exposure to reproductive hazards by monitoring trends in group data and by implementing training and education programs to employees exposed to reproductive hazards.

Controlling organic chemical hazards in food manufacturing: a hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) approach.

PubMed

Ropkins, K; Beck, A J

2002-08-01

Hazard analysis by critical control points (HACCP) is a systematic approach to the identification, assessment and control of hazards. Effective HACCP requires the consideration of all hazards, i.e., chemical, microbiological and physical. However, to-date most 'in-place' HACCP procedures have tended to focus on the control of microbiological and physical food hazards. In general, the chemical component of HACCP procedures is either ignored or limited to applied chemicals, e.g., food additives and pesticides. In this paper we discuss the application of HACCP to a broader range of chemical hazards, using organic chemical contaminants as examples, and the problems that are likely to arise in the food manufacturing sector. Chemical HACCP procedures are likely to result in many of the advantages previously identified for microbiological HACCP procedures: more effective, efficient and economical than conventional end-point-testing methods. However, the high costs of analytical monitoring of chemical contaminants and a limited understanding of formulation and process optimisation as means of controlling chemical contamination of foods are likely to prevent chemical HACCP becoming as effective as microbiological HACCP.

Political science, public administration, and natural hazards: contributions and connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, E.

2009-04-01

The connection between the natural and social sciences has become stronger, and has increasingly been recognized as a vital component in the area of natural hazards research. Moving applied natural hazards research into the public policy or administration realm is not often easy, or effective. An improved understanding of the connection between the natural and social sciences can assist in this process and result in better public policy, acceptance from the public for these policies, and a safer and better educated public. This paper will present initial findings from a larger data set on natural hazards and social science research. Specifically we will review the current contribution of the formal academic disciplines of political science and public administration within recent natural hazards-related scholarship. The general characteristics of the contributions (e.g. coauthored, interdisciplinary, etc.), specific theories and methods being applied, and the types of natural hazards being scrutinized by these related fields will be assessed. In conclusion we will discuss future contributions and areas for potential collaboration between the natural and social sciences in the area of natural hazards research.

Use of Advanced Tsunami Hazard Assessment Techniques and Tsunami Source Characterizations in U.S. and International Nuclear Regulatory Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kammerer, A. M.; Godoy, A. R.

2009-12-01

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, as well as the anticipation of the submission of license applications for new nuclear facilities, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants and other coastal facilities in the United States. To undertake this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program jointly undertaken with researchers at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. This study identified and modeled both seismic and landslide tsunamigenic sources in the near- and far-field. The results from this work are now being used directly as the basis for the review of tsunami hazard at potential nuclear plant sites. This application once again shows the importance that the earth sciences can play in addressing issues of importance to society. Because the Indian Ocean Tsunami was a global event, a number of cooperative international activities have also been initiated within the nuclear community. The results of US efforts are being incorporated into updated regulatory guidance for both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Coordinated efforts are underway to integrate state-of-the art tsunami warning tools developed by NOAA into NRC and IAEA activities. The goal of the warning systems project is to develop automated protocols that allow scientists at these agencies to have up-to-the minute user-specific information in hand shortly after a potential tsunami has been identified by the US Tsunami Warning System. Lastly, USGS and NOAA scientists are assisting the NRC and IAEA in a special Extra-Budgetary Program (IAEA EBP) on tsunami being coordinated by the IAEA’s International Seismic Safety Center. This IAEA EBP is focused on sharing lessons learned, tsunami hazard assessment techniques, and numerical tools among UN Member States. The complete body of basic and applied research undertaken in these many projects represents the combined effort of a diverse group of marine geologists, geophysicists, geotechnical engineers, seismologists and hydrodynamic modelers at multiple organizations.

A flexible open-source toolkit for lava flow simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mossoux, Sophie; Feltz, Adelin; Poppe, Sam; Canters, Frank; Kervyn, Matthieu

2014-05-01

Lava flow hazard modeling is a useful tool for scientists and stakeholders confronted with imminent or long term hazard from basaltic volcanoes. It can improve their understanding of the spatial distribution of volcanic hazard, influence their land use decisions and improve the city evacuation during a volcanic crisis. Although a range of empirical, stochastic and physically-based lava flow models exists, these models are rarely available or require a large amount of physical constraints. We present a GIS toolkit which models lava flow propagation from one or multiple eruptive vents, defined interactively on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). It combines existing probabilistic (VORIS) and deterministic (FLOWGO) models in order to improve the simulation of lava flow spatial spread and terminal length. Not only is this toolkit open-source, running in Python, which allows users to adapt the code to their needs, but it also allows users to combine the models included in different ways. The lava flow paths are determined based on the probabilistic steepest slope (VORIS model - Felpeto et al., 2001) which can be constrained in order to favour concentrated or dispersed flow fields. Moreover, the toolkit allows including a corrective factor in order for the lava to overcome small topographical obstacles or pits. The lava flow terminal length can be constrained using a fixed length value, a Gaussian probability density function or can be calculated based on the thermo-rheological properties of the open-channel lava flow (FLOWGO model - Harris and Rowland, 2001). These slope-constrained properties allow estimating the velocity of the flow and its heat losses. The lava flow stops when its velocity is zero or the lava temperature reaches the solidus. Recent lava flows of Karthala volcano (Comoros islands) are here used to demonstrate the quality of lava flow simulations with the toolkit, using a quantitative assessment of the match of the simulation with the real lava flows. The influence of the different input parameters on the quality of the simulations is discussed. REFERENCES: Felpeto et al. (2001), Assessment and modelling of lava flow hazard on Lanzarote (Canary islands), Nat. Hazards, 23, 247-257. Harris and Rowland (2001), FLOWGO: a kinematic thermo-rheological model for lava flowing in a channel, Bull. Volcanol., 63, 20-44.

Susceptibility to mountain hazards in Austria - paradigms of vulnerability revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven

2010-05-01

The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for either a qualitative or quantitative assessment of vulnerability. However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these theories, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability are discussed with respect to mountain hazards in Austria. The underlying idea of taking such an integrative viewpoint was the cognition that human action in mountain environments affects the state of vulnerability, and the state of vulnerability in turn shapes the possibilities of human action. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. Hence, the vulnerability of a specific location and within a considered point of time is triggered by the hazardous event and the related physical susceptibility of structures, such as buildings located on a torrent fan. Depending on the specific institutional settings, economic vulnerability of individuals or of the society results, above all with respect to imperfect loss compensation mechanisms in the areas under investigation. While this potential for harm can be addressed as social vulnerability, the concept of institutional vulnerability has been developed with respect to the overall political settings of governmental risk management. As a result, the concept of vulnerability, as being used in natural sciences, can be extended by integration of possible reasons why such physical susceptibility of structures exists, and by integration of compensation mechanisms and coping strategies being developed within social sciences. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. Thereby the overall aim of this work is not to develop another integrative approach for vulnerability assessment, different approaches are rather applied by using a vulnerability-of-place criterion, and key issues of vulnerability are reconsidered aiming at a general illustration of the situation in a densely populated mountain region of Europe.

Non-marfan idiopathic medionecrosis (cystic medial necrosis) presenting with multiple visceral artery aneurysms and diffuse connective tissue fragility: Two brothers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kubota, Jun; Tsunemura, Mami; Amano, Shigeko

1997-05-15

Two brothers with multiple visceral artery aneurysms or dilatations and diffuse connective tissue fragility who did not have clinical features of Marfan syndrome are reported. One presented with retroperitoneal hemorrhage during angiography, and idiopathic medionecrosis was proved by resection of the aneurysms. These cases belong to the heterogeneous group of Marfan syndrome. The angiographical features (multiple dilation of visceral arteries) suggests fragility of connective tissue and is predictive of hazards during and after a catheterization and operation.

Slumgullion; Colorado’s natural landslide laboratory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Highland, L.M.

1993-01-01

The mountains of Colorado, and the Rocky Mountains in general, have one of the highest levels of landslide hazard in the nation. In a typical year, landslides hazard in the nation. In a typical year, landslides cause several fatalities and millions of dollars in damage to highways, pipelines, buildings, and forests in Colorado. To reduce such losses we need to understand why landslides occur and how they behave once they form. The Slumgullion landslide, an ideal natural laboratory, offers a unique opportunity to carefully observe and monitor the movement of a large, active landslide. In 1990, soon after the State of Colorado assigned high priority to hazard evaluation of the Slumgullion landslide, the USGS began an intensive study as part of its Landslide Hazards Reduction Program. 

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

2013-01-01

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

Occupational and environmental reproductive hazards education and resources for communities of color.

PubMed Central

Dula, A; Kurtz, S; Samper, M L

1993-01-01

Little research has been published on the occupational and environmental hazards affecting people of color. Even less is known about the hazards that affect women of color. Although women of color have always been aggressive participants in the work force, their labor activity has increased dramatically over the last decade. Current job placement patterns suggest that women of color are concentrated in the lowest-paying and most hazardous jobs. In this paper, we specifically focus on occupational and environmental reproductive health concerns. We write with the understanding that reproductive hazards can affect pregnant women, nonpregnant women, and men, as well as the health and development of young children. Emphasis is placed primarily on African American women, because information on Hispanic, Native American, and Asian women is very limited. We discuss the participation of women of color in the labor force, using the U.S. Department of Labor categories. We review specific occupational hazards associated with each category of work and briefly discuss environmental hazards, noting that communities of color are at a disproportionate risk of exposure. Finally, we present the consensus report of the Community Education Working Group from the Woods Hole Conference on Occupational and Environmental Reproductive Hazards. PMID:8243389

Occupational-level interactions between physical hazards and cognitive ability and skill requirements in predicting injury incidence rates.

PubMed

Ford, Michael T; Wiggins, Bryan K

2012-07-01

Interactions between occupational-level physical hazards and cognitive ability and skill requirements were examined as predictors of injury incidence rates as reported by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Based on ratings provided in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database, results across 563 occupations indicate that physical hazards at the occupational level were strongly related to injury incidence rates. Also, as expected, the physical hazard-injury rate relationship was stronger among occupations with high cognitive ability and skill requirements. In addition, there was an unexpected main effect such that occupations with high cognitive ability and skill requirements had lower injury rates even after controlling for physical hazards. The main effect of cognitive ability and skill requirements, combined with the interaction with physical hazards, resulted in unexpectedly high injury rates for low-ability and low-skill occupations with low physical hazard levels. Substantive and methodological explanations for these interactions and their theoretical and practical implications are offered. Results suggest that organizations and occupational health and safety researchers and practitioners should consider the occupational level of analysis and interactions between physical hazards and cognitive requirements in future research and practice when attempting to understand and prevent injuries.

Using SAR and GPS for Hazard Management and Response: Progress and Examples from the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, S. E.; Simons, M.; Hua, H.; Yun, S. H.; Agram, P. S.; Milillo, P.; Sacco, G. F.; Webb, F.; Rosen, P. A.; Lundgren, P.; Milillo, G.; Manipon, G. J. M.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Polet, J.; Cruz, J.

2014-12-01

ARIA is a joint JPL/Caltech project to automate synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and GPS imaging capabilities for scientific understanding, hazard response, and societal benefit. We have built a prototype SAR and GPS data system that forms the foundation for hazard monitoring and response capability, as well as providing imaging capabilities important for science studies. Together, InSAR and GPS have the ability to capture surface deformation in high spatial and temporal resolution. For earthquakes, this deformation provides information that is complementary to seismic data on location, geometry and magnitude of earthquakes. Accurate location information is critical for understanding the regions affected by damaging shaking. Regular surface deformation measurements from SAR and GPS are useful for monitoring changes related to many processes that are important for hazard and resource management such as volcanic deformation, groundwater withdrawal, and landsliding. Observations of SAR coherence change have a demonstrated use for damage assessment for hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and volcanic eruptions. These damage assessment maps can be made from imagery taken day or night and are not affected by clouds, making them valuable complements to optical imagery. The coherence change caused by the damage from hazards (building collapse, flooding, ash fall) is also detectable with intelligent algorithms, allowing for rapid generation of damage assessment maps over large areas at fine resolution, down to the spatial scale of single family homes. We will present the progress and results we have made on automating the analysis of SAR data for hazard monitoring and response using data from the Italian Space Agency's (ASI) COSMO-SkyMed constellation of X-band SAR satellites. Since the beginning of our project with ASI, our team has imaged deformation and coherence change caused by many natural hazard events around the world. We will present progress on our data system technology that enables rapid and reliable production of imagery. Lastly, we participated in the March 2014 FEMA exercise based on a repeat of the 1964 M9.2 Alaska earthquake, providing simulated data products for use in this hazards response exercise. We will present lessons learned from this and other simulation exercises.

Non-animal methods to predict skin sensitization (II): an assessment of defined approaches *.

PubMed

Kleinstreuer, Nicole C; Hoffmann, Sebastian; Alépée, Nathalie; Allen, David; Ashikaga, Takao; Casey, Warren; Clouet, Elodie; Cluzel, Magalie; Desprez, Bertrand; Gellatly, Nichola; Göbel, Carsten; Kern, Petra S; Klaric, Martina; Kühnl, Jochen; Martinozzi-Teissier, Silvia; Mewes, Karsten; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Strickland, Judy; van Vliet, Erwin; Zang, Qingda; Petersohn, Dirk

2018-05-01

Skin sensitization is a toxicity endpoint of widespread concern, for which the mechanistic understanding and concurrent necessity for non-animal testing approaches have evolved to a critical juncture, with many available options for predicting sensitization without using animals. Cosmetics Europe and the National Toxicology Program Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods collaborated to analyze the performance of multiple non-animal data integration approaches for the skin sensitization safety assessment of cosmetics ingredients. The Cosmetics Europe Skin Tolerance Task Force (STTF) collected and generated data on 128 substances in multiple in vitro and in chemico skin sensitization assays selected based on a systematic assessment by the STTF. These assays, together with certain in silico predictions, are key components of various non-animal testing strategies that have been submitted to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as case studies for skin sensitization. Curated murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human skin sensitization data were used to evaluate the performance of six defined approaches, comprising eight non-animal testing strategies, for both hazard and potency characterization. Defined approaches examined included consensus methods, artificial neural networks, support vector machine models, Bayesian networks, and decision trees, most of which were reproduced using open source software tools. Multiple non-animal testing strategies incorporating in vitro, in chemico, and in silico inputs demonstrated equivalent or superior performance to the LLNA when compared to both animal and human data for skin sensitization.

Experimental Validation of a Forward Looking Interferometer for Detection of Clear Air Turbulence due to Mountain Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffner, Philip R.; Daniels, Taumi S.; West, Leanne L.; Gimmestad, Gary G.; Lane, Sarah E.; Burdette, Edward M.; Smith, William L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry; Sharman, Robert D.

2012-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is an airborne sensor concept for detection and estimation of potential atmospheric hazards to aircraft. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometry technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing. The FLI is being evaluated for its potential to address multiple hazards, during all phases of flight, including clear air turbulence, volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing. In addition, the FLI is being evaluated for its potential to detect hazardous runway conditions during landing, such as wet or icy asphalt or concrete. The validation of model-based instrument and hazard simulation results is accomplished by comparing predicted performance against empirical data. In the mountain lee wave data collected in the previous FLI project, the data showed a damped, periodic mountain wave structure. The wave data itself will be of use in forecast and nowcast turbulence products such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance and Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast products. Determining how turbulence hazard estimates can be derived from FLI measurements will require further investigation.

Hydrology Analysis and Modelling for Klang River Basin Flood Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Rostam, N. E.; Hidayah, B.; Roseli, ZA; Majid, W. H. A. W. A.; Zahari, N. Z.; Salleh, S. H. M.; Ahmad, R. D. R.; Ahmad, M. N.

2016-03-01

Flooding, a common environmental hazard worldwide has in recent times, increased as a result of climate change and urbanization with the effects felt more in developing countries. As a result, the explosive of flooding to Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) substation is increased rapidly due to existing substations are located in flood prone area. By understanding the impact of flood to their substation, TNB has provided the non-structure mitigation with the integration of Flood Hazard Map with their substation. Hydrology analysis is the important part in providing runoff as the input for the hydraulic part.

Simulation and analysis of support hardware for multiple instruction rollback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alewine, Neil J.

1992-01-01

Recently, a compiler-assisted approach to multiple instruction retry was developed. In this scheme, a read buffer of size 2N, where N represents the maximum instruction rollback distance, is used to resolve one type of data hazard. This hardware support helps to reduce code growth, compilation time, and some of the performance impacts associated with hazard resolution. The 2N read buffer size requirement of the compiler-assisted approach is worst case, assuring data redundancy for all data required but also providing some unnecessary redundancy. By adding extra bits in the operand field for source 1 and source 2 it becomes possible to design the read buffer to save only those values required, thus reducing the read buffer size requirement. This study measures the effect on performance of a DECstation 3100 running 10 application programs using 6 read buffer configurations at varying read buffer sizes.

An Evaluation of Health and Safety Hazards in Family Based Day Care Homes in Philadelphia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perez, Hernando; Haynes, Sonia; Michael, Karen; Burstyn, Igor; Jandhyala, Malica; Palermo, Peter

2011-01-01

In Pennsylvania, Family Day Care Homes (FDCH) are private residences used to care for up to six children in a 24 h period. These homes are often times the most affordable alternative to day care centers parents have in low-income communities. The aims of this study were to evaluate FDCH providers' knowledge of hazards and their understanding of…

Ignorance and Hazards in Academe: The Dilemma of Fire Safety in American Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crnkovich, John J.; Dye, Charles M.

An examination was made of five major campus fires between 1971 and 1983 in an attempt to better understand the fire hazards associated with the operation of a modern U.S. college or university campus. Overall research revealed a general lack of interest in campus fire safety by colleges and universities in the United States and Canada. Analysis…

Connoted hazard and perceived importance of fluorescent, neon, and standard safety colors.

PubMed

Zielinska, O A; Mayhorn, C B; Wogalter, M S

2017-11-01

The perceived hazard and rated importance of standard safety, fluorescent, and neon colors are investigated. Colors are used in warnings to enhance hazard communication. Red has consistently been rated as the highest in perceived hazard. Orange, yellow, and black are the next highest in connoted hazard; however, there is discrepancy in their ordering. Safety standards, such as ANSI Z535.1, also list colors to convey important information, but little research has examined the perceived importance of colors. In addition to standard safety colors, fluorescent colors are more commonly used in warnings. Understanding hazard and importance perceptions of standard safety and fluorescent colors is necessary to create effective warnings. Ninety participants rated and ranked a total of 33 colors on both perceived hazard and perceived importance. Rated highest were the safety red colors from the American National Standard Institute (ANSI), International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) together with three fluorescent colors (orange, yellow, and yellow-green) from 3 M on both dimensions. Rankings were similar to ratings except that fluorescent orange was the highest on perceived hazard, while fluorescent orange and safety red from the ANSI were ranked as the highest in perceived importance. Fluorescent colors convey hazard and importance levels as high as the standard safety red colors. Implications for conveying hazard and importance in warnings through color are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

PubMed

Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

2016-07-15

China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing Floodplain Expectations on the Lower Missouri River, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulliner, E. A., IV; Jacobson, R. B.; Lindner, G. A.; Paukert, C.; Bouska, K.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River is an archetype of the challenges of managing large rivers and their floodplains for multiple objectives. At 1.3 million km2 drainage area, the Missouri boasts the largest reservoir system in North America with 91 km3 of total storage; in an average year the system generates 10 billion kilowatt hours of electricity. The Lower Missouri River floodplain extends 1,300 km downstream from the reservoir system and encompasses approximately 9,200 km2. For the past 150 years, the floodplain has been predominantly used for agriculture much of which is protected from flooding by private and Federal levees. Reservoir system operating policies prioritize flood-hazard reduction but in recent years, large, damaging floods have demonstrated system limitations. These large floods and changing societal values have created new expectations about how conversion of floodplain agricultural lands to conservation lands might increase ecosystem services, in particular decreasing flood risk and mitigating fluxes of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico. Our research addresses these expectations at multiple spatial scales by starting with hydrologic and hydraulic models to understand controls on floodplain hydrodynamics. The results document the substantial regional spatial variability in floodplain connectivity that exists because of multi-decadal channel adjustments to channelization and sediment budgets. Exploration of levee setback scenarios with 1- and 2-dimensional hydrodynamic models indicates modest and spatially variable gains in flood-hazard reduction are possible if substantial land areas (50% or more) are converted from agricultural production. Estimates of potential denitrification benefits of connecting floodplains indicate that the floodplain has the capacity to remove 100's to 1,000's of metric tons of N each year, but amounts to a maximum of about 5% the existing load of 200,000 ton*y-1. The results indicate that in this river-floodplain system, the ecosystem services associated with floodplain conversion can be substantial, but the sum of benefits needed to justify land conversion over broad areas remains uncertain.

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process has been applied also on the scientific output of MED-SUV WP6, as a tool for the short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For the Campi Flegrei volcanic system, the expected tool has been implemented to compute hazard curves, hazard maps and probability maps for tephra fallout on a target grid covering the Campania region. This allows the end user to visualize the hazard from tephra fallout and its uncertainty. The response of end-users to such products will help to determine to what extent end-users understand them, find them useful, and match their requirements. In order to involve also Etna area in WP6 TASK 3 activities, a questionnaire developed in the VUELCO project (Volcanic Unrest in Europe and Latin America) has been proposed to Sicily Civil Protection officials having decision-making responsibility in case of volcanic unrest at Etna and Stromboli, to survey their opinions and requirements also in case of volcanic unrest

Laser hazards and safety in the military environment. Lecture series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Lecture Series is intended to provide an understanding of the safety problems associated with the military use of lasers. The most important hazard is the inadvertent irradiation of the eye and so the series will include contributions from the physical and biological sciences, as well as from ophthalmologists. Those involved with laser safety come from many backgrounds -- from physics to engineering and from vision physiology to clinical ophthalmology and it is essential that each understands the contribution of the other. The lectures include an introductory part and from this, the more advanced aspects of each subject are covered,more » leading to the issues involved in the design of safety codes and the control of laser hazards. The final session deals with medical surveillance of laser personnel. The Series is of value to both military and civilian personnel involved with safety, whether they are concerned with land, sea or airborne laser systems. (GRA)« less

The Relationship of Financial Pressures and Community Characteristics to Closure of Private Safety Net Clinics.

PubMed

Li, Suhui; Dor, Avi; Pines, Jesse M; Zocchi, Mark S; Hsia, Renee Y

2016-10-01

In order to better understand what threatens vulnerable populations' access to primary care, it is important to understand the factors associated with closing safety net clinics. This article examines how a clinic's financial position, productivity, and community characteristics are associated with its risk of closure. We examine patterns of closures among private-run primary care clinics (PCCs) in California between 2006 and 2012. We use a discrete-time proportional hazard model to assess relative hazard ratios of covariates, and a random-effect hazard model to adjust for unobserved heterogeneity among PCCs. We find that lower net income from patient care, smaller amount of government grants, and lower productivity were associated with significantly higher risk of PCC closure. We also find that federally qualified health centers and nonfederally qualified health centers generally faced the same risk factors of closure. These results underscore the critical role of financial incentives in the long-term viability of safety net clinics. © The Author(s) 2015.

Solar Photovoltaic DC Systems: Basics and Safety: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McNutt, Peter F; Sekulic, William R; Dreifuerst, Gary

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems are common and growing with 42.4 GW installed capacity in U.S. (almost 15 GW added in 2016). This paper will help electrical workers, and emergency responders understand the basic operating principles and hazards of PV DC arrays. We briefly discuss the following aspects of solar photovoltaic (PV) DC systems: the effects of solar radiation and temperature on output power; PV module testing standards; common system configurations; a simple PV array sizing example; NEC guidelines and other safety features; DC array commissioning, periodic maintenance and testing; arc-flash hazard potential; how electrical workers and emergency responders can andmore » do work safely around PV arrays; do moonlight and artificial lighting pose a real danger; typical safe operating procedures; and other potential DC-system hazards to be aware of. We also present some statistics on PV DC array electrical incidents and injuries. Safe PV array operation is possible with a good understanding of PV DC arrays basics and having good safe operating procedures in place.« less

Rosin-Rammler Distributions in ANSYS Fluent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunham, Ryan Q.

In Health Physics monitoring, particles need to be collected and tracked. One method is to predict the motion of potential health hazards with computer models. Particles released from various sources within a glove box can become a respirable health hazard if released into the area surrounding a glove box. The goal of modeling the aerosols in a glove box is to reduce the hazards associated with a leak in the glove box system. ANSYS Fluent provides a number of tools for modeling this type of environment. Particles can be released using injections into the flow path with turbulent properties. Themore » models of particle tracks can then be used to predict paths and concentrations of particles within the flow. An attempt to understand and predict the handling of data by Fluent was made, and results iteratively tracked. Trends in data were studied to comprehend the final results. The purpose of the study was to allow a better understanding of the operation of Fluent for aerosol modeling for future application in many fields.« less

Describing and understanding behavioral responses to multiple stressors and multiple stimuli.

PubMed

Hale, Robin; Piggott, Jeremy J; Swearer, Stephen E

2017-01-01

Understanding the effects of environmental change on natural ecosystems is a major challenge, particularly when multiple stressors interact to produce unexpected "ecological surprises" in the form of complex, nonadditive effects that can amplify or reduce their individual effects. Animals often respond behaviorally to environmental change, and multiple stressors can have both population-level and community-level effects. However, the individual, not combined, effects of stressors on animal behavior are commonly studied. There is a need to understand how animals respond to the more complex combinations of stressors that occur in nature, which requires a systematic and rigorous approach to quantify the various potential behavioral responses to the independent and interactive effects of stressors. We illustrate a robust, systematic approach for understanding behavioral responses to multiple stressors based on integrating schemes used to quantitatively classify interactions in multiple-stressor research and to qualitatively view interactions between multiple stimuli in behavioral experiments. We introduce and unify the two frameworks, highlighting their conceptual and methodological similarities, and use four case studies to demonstrate how this unification could improve our interpretation of interactions in behavioral experiments and guide efforts to manage the effects of multiple stressors. Our unified approach: (1) provides behavioral ecologists with a more rigorous and systematic way to quantify how animals respond to interactions between multiple stimuli, an important theoretical advance, (2) helps us better understand how animals behave when they encounter multiple, potentially interacting stressors, and (3) contributes more generally to the understanding of "ecological surprises" in multiple stressors research.

The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Multiple-modality program for standoff detection of roadside hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Kathryn; Middleton, Seth; Close, Ryan; Luke, Robert H.; Suri, Rajiv

2016-05-01

The U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) is executing a program to assess the performance of a variety of sensor modalities for standoff detection of roadside explosive hazards. The program objective is to identify an optimal sensor or combination of fused sensors to incorporate with autonomous detection algorithms into a system of systems for use in future route clearance operations. This paper provides an overview of the program, including a description of the sensors under consideration, sensor test events, and ongoing data analysis.

Does vagotomy protect against multiple sclerosis?

PubMed

Sundbøll, Jens; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Adelborg, Kasper; Svensson, Elisabeth

2017-07-01

To examine the association between vagotomy and multiple sclerosis. We conducted a matched cohort study of all patients who underwent truncal or super-selective vagotomy and a comparison cohort, by linking Danish population-based medical registries (1977-1995). Hazard ratios (HRs) for multiple sclerosis, adjusting for potential confounders were computed by means of Cox regression analysis. Median age of multiple sclerosis onset corresponded to late onset multiple sclerosis. No association with multiple sclerosis was observed for truncal vagotomy (0-37 year adjusted HR=0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-1.74) or super-selective vagotomy (0-37 year adjusted HR=1.28, 95% CI: 0.79-2.09) compared with the general population. We found no association between vagotomy and later risk of late onset multiple sclerosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender identity, healthcare access, and risk reduction among Malaysia’s mak nyah community

PubMed Central

Gibson, Britton A.; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Rutledge, Ronnye; Wickersham, Jeffrey A.; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Altice, Frederick L.

2016-01-01

Transgender women (TGW) face compounded levels of stigma and discrimination, resulting in multiple health risks and poor health outcomes. TGW identities are erased by forcing them into binary sex categories in society or treating them as men who have sex with men (MSM). In Malaysia, where both civil and religious law criminalize them for their identities, many TGW turn to sex work with inconsistent prevention methods, which increases their health risks. This qualitative study aims to understand how the identities of TGW sex workers shapes their healthcare utilization patterns and harm reduction behaviours. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 male-to-female transgender (mak nyah) sex workers in Malaysia. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analysed using thematic coding. Results suggest that TGW identity is shaped at an early age followed by incorporation into the mak nyah community where TGW were assisted in gender transition and introduced to sex work. While healthcare was accessible, it failed to address the multiple healthcare needs of TGW. Pressure for gender-affirming health procedures and fear of HIV and sexually transmitted infection screening led to potentially hazardous health behaviours. These findings have implications for developing holistic, culturally-sensitive prevention and healthcare services for TGW. PMID:26824463

Repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors changed the explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Oude Groeniger, Joost; Kamphuis, Carlijn B; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J

2017-11-01

We examined whether using repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors contributed differently to socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality compared to one baseline measurement. Data from the Dutch prospective GLOBE cohort were linked to mortality register data (1991-2013; N = 4,851). Socioeconomic position was measured at baseline by educational level and occupation. Material factors (financial difficulties, housing tenure, health insurance) and behavioral factors (smoking, leisure time physical activity, sports participation, and body mass index) were self-reported in 1991, 1997, and 2004. Cox proportional hazards regression and bootstrap methods were used to examine the contribution of baseline-only and time-varying risk factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Men and women in the lowest educational and occupational groups were at an increased risk of dying compared to the highest groups. The contribution of material factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality was smaller when multiple instead of baseline-only measurements were used (25%-65% vs. 49%-93%). The contribution of behavioral factors was larger when multiple measurements were used (39%-51% vs. 19%-40%). Inclusion of time-dependent risk factors contributes to understanding socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but careful examination of the underlying mechanisms and suitability of the model is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender identity, healthcare access, and risk reduction among Malaysia's mak nyah community.

PubMed

Gibson, Britton A; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Rutledge, Ronnye; Wickersham, Jeffrey A; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Altice, Frederick L

2016-01-01

Transgender women (TGW) face compounded levels of stigma and discrimination, resulting in multiple health risks and poor health outcomes. TGW identities are erased by forcing them into binary sex categories in society or treating them as men who have sex with men (MSM). In Malaysia, where both civil and religious law criminalise them for their identities, many TGW turn to sex work with inconsistent prevention methods, which increases their health risks. This qualitative study aims to understand how the identities of TGW sex workers shapes their healthcare utilisation patterns and harm reduction behaviours. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 male-to-female transgender (mak nyah) sex workers in Malaysia. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analysed using thematic coding. Results suggest that TGW identity is shaped at an early age followed by incorporation into the mak nyah community where TGW were assisted in gender transition and introduced to sex work. While healthcare was accessible, it failed to address the multiple healthcare needs of TGW. Pressure for gender-affirming health procedures and fear of HIV and sexually transmitted infection screening led to potentially hazardous health behaviours. These findings have implications for developing holistic, culturally sensitive prevention and healthcare services for TGW.

The residues and environmental risks of multiple veterinary antibiotics in animal faeces.

PubMed

Li, Yan-Xia; Zhang, Xue-Lian; Li, Wei; Lu, Xiao-Fei; Liu, Bei; Wang, Jing

2013-03-01

To understand the residues and ecological risks of veterinary antibiotics (VAs) in animal faeces from concentrated animal feeding operations in northeastern China, 14 VAs were identified by high performance liquid chromatography, and the preliminary risks of six antibiotics were assessed using the hazard quotient (HQ). The investigated VAs occurred in 7.41 to 57.41 % of the 54 samples, and the levels ranged from 0.08 to 56.81 mg kg(-1). Tetracyclines were predominant with a maximum level of 56.81 mg kg(-1) mostly detected in pig faeces. Sulfonamides were common and detected with the highest concentration of 7.11 mg kg(-1). Fluoroquinolones were more widely detected in chicken faeces rather than in pig or cow faeces, which contained the dominant antibiotic enrofloxacin. In comparison, the residue of tylosin was less frequently found. The risk evaluations of the six antibiotics revealed that tetracyclines, especially oxytetracycline, displayed the greatest ecological risk because of its high HQ value of 15.75. The results of this study imply that multiple kinds of VAs were jointly used in animal feeding processes in the study area. These medicine residues in animal faeces may potentially bring ecological risks if the animal manure is not treated effectively.

Assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards using Bayesian networks based on standard penetration test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiao-Wei; Bai, Xu; Hu, Ji-Lei; Qiu, Jiang-Nan

2018-05-01

Liquefaction-induced hazards such as sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading are responsible for considerable damage to engineering structures during major earthquakes. Presently, there is no effective empirical approach that can assess different liquefaction-induced hazards in one model. This is because of the uncertainties and complexity of the factors related to seismic liquefaction and liquefaction-induced hazards. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to integrate multiple factors related to seismic liquefaction, sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading into a model based on standard penetration test data. The constructed BN model can assess four different liquefaction-induced hazards together. In a case study, the BN method outperforms an artificial neural network and Ishihara and Yoshimine's simplified method in terms of accuracy, Brier score, recall, precision, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). This demonstrates that the BN method is a good alternative tool for the risk assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards. Furthermore, the performance of the BN model in estimating liquefaction-induced hazards in Japan's 2011 Tōhoku earthquake confirms its correctness and reliability compared with the liquefaction potential index approach. The proposed BN model can also predict whether the soil becomes liquefied after an earthquake and can deduce the chain reaction process of liquefaction-induced hazards and perform backward reasoning. The assessment results from the proposed model provide informative guidelines for decision-makers to detect the damage state of a field following liquefaction.

Home safety: development and validation of one component of an ecobehavioral treatment program for abused and neglected children.

PubMed Central

Tertinger, D A; Greene, B F; Lutzker, J R

1984-01-01

Parents may be charged with child abuse or neglect or both on the basis of a variety of circumstances. Child neglect, for example, is often documented when caseworkers observe that the family's home itself is so poorly kept that it presents an environment in which young children have ready access to lethal hazards such as poisons, uncovered wall outlets, and firearms. In this study, we describe the development of a Home Accident Prevention Inventory (HAPI) which was validated and used to assess hazards in the homes of several families under state protective service for child abuse and neglect. The HAPI included five categories of hazards: fire and electrical, mechanical-suffocation, ingested object suffocation, firearms, and solid/liquid poisons. Following the collection of baseline data, parents were presented with a treatment package that included instructions and demonstrations on making hazards inaccessible to children, plus feedback regarding the number and location of hazards in the home. The multiple-baseline design across hazardous categories in each family's home showed that the package resulted in decreases in the number of these accessible hazards. These improvements were maintained over an extended period of unannounced follow-up checks. This research provides a model for the development and assessment of an area previously unexamined in the child abuse and neglect literature. PMID:6735949

Analyzing recurrent events when the history of previous episodes is unknown or not taken into account: proceed with caution.

PubMed

Navarro, Albert; Casanovas, Georgina; Alvarado, Sergio; Moriña, David

Researchers in public health are often interested in examining the effect of several exposures on the incidence of a recurrent event. The aim of the present study is to assess how well the common-baseline hazard models perform to estimate the effect of multiple exposures on the hazard of presenting an episode of a recurrent event, in presence of event dependence and when the history of prior-episodes is unknown or is not taken into account. Through a comprehensive simulation study, using specific-baseline hazard models as the reference, we evaluate the performance of common-baseline hazard models by means of several criteria: bias, mean squared error, coverage, confidence intervals mean length and compliance with the assumption of proportional hazards. Results indicate that the bias worsen as event dependence increases, leading to a considerable overestimation of the exposure effect; coverage levels and compliance with the proportional hazards assumption are low or extremely low, worsening with increasing event dependence, effects to be estimated, and sample sizes. Common-baseline hazard models cannot be recommended when we analyse recurrent events in the presence of event dependence. It is important to have access to the history of prior-episodes per subject, it can permit to obtain better estimations of the effects of the exposures. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wdowinski, S.; Peng, Z.; Ferrier, K.; Lin, C. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Shyu, J. B. H.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes, landslides, and tropical cyclones are extreme hazards that pose significant threats to human life and property. Some of the couplings between these hazards are well known. For example, sudden, widespread landsliding can be triggered by large earthquakes and by extreme rainfall events like tropical cyclones. Recent studies have also shown that earthquakes can be triggered by erosional unloading over 100-year timescales. In a NASA supported project, titled "Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquake", we study triggering relations between these hazard types. The project focuses on such triggering relations in Taiwan, which is subjected to very wet tropical storms, landslides, and earthquakes. One example for such triggering relations is the 2009 Morakot typhoon, which was the wettest recorded typhoon in Taiwan (2850 mm of rain in 100 hours). The typhoon caused widespread flooding and triggered more than 20,000 landslides, including the devastating Hsiaolin landslide. Six months later, the same area was hit by the 2010 M=6.4 Jiashian earthquake near Kaohsiung city, which added to the infrastructure damage induced by the typhoon and the landslides. Preliminary analysis of temporal relations between main-shock earthquakes and the six wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years reveals similar temporal relations between M≥5 events and wet typhoons. Future work in the project will include remote sensing analysis of landsliding, seismic and geodetic monitoring of landslides, detection of microseismicity and tremor activities, and mechanical modeling of crustal stress changes due to surface unloading.

Surface water classification and monitoring using polarimetric synthetic aperture radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwin, Katherine Elizabeth

Surface water classification using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an established practice for monitoring flood hazards due to the high temporal and spatial resolution it provides. Surface water change is a dynamic process that varies both spatially and temporally, and can occur on various scales resulting in significant impacts on affected areas. Small-scale flooding hazards, caused by beaver dam failure, is an example of surface water change, which can impact nearby infrastructure and ecosystems. Assessing these hazards is essential to transportation and infrastructure maintenance. With current satellite missions operating in multiple polarizations, spatio-temporal resolutions, and frequencies, a comprehensive comparison between SAR products for surface water monitoring is necessary. In this thesis, surface water extent models derived from high resolution single-polarization TerraSAR-X (TSX) data, medium resolution dual-polarization TSX data and low resolution quad-polarization RADARSAT-2 (RS-2) data are compared. There exists a compromise between acquiring SAR data with a high resolution or high information content. Multi-polarization data provides additional phase and intensity information, which makes it possible to better classify areas of flooded vegetation and wetlands. These locations are often where fluctuations in surface water occur and are essential for understanding dynamic underlying processes. However, often multi-polarized data is acquired at a low resolution, which cannot image these zones effectively. High spatial resolution, single-polarization TSX data provides the best model of open water. However, these single-polarization observations have limited information content and are affected by shadow and layover errors. This often hinders the classification of other land cover types. The dual-polarization TSX data allows for the classification of flooded vegetation, but classification is less accurate compared to the quad-polarization RS-2 data. The RS-2 data allows for the discrimination of open water, marshes/fields and forested areas. However, the RS-2 data is less applicable to small scale surface water monitoring (e.g. beaver dam failure), due to its low spatial resolution. By understanding the strengths and weaknesses of available SAR technology, an appropriate product can be chosen for a specific target application involving surface water change. This research benefits the eventual development of a space-based monitoring strategy over longer periods.

Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, Shane J.; Gaylord, David R.; Charley, Douglas; Alloway, Brent V.; Wallez, Sandrine; Esau, Job W.

2004-10-01

Ambae Island is the largest of Vanuatu’s active volcanoes. It is also one of the nation’s potentially most dangerous, with 60 million m3 of lake-water perched at over 1340 m in the summit caldera and over the active vent. In 1995, small phreatic explosions, earthquake swarms and heightened gas release led to calls for evacuation preparation and community volcanic hazard awareness programs for the ~9500 inhabitants. Differences in perspective or world-view between the island dwellers adhering to traditional beliefs (Kastom) and external scientists and emergency managers led to a climate of distrust following this crisis. In an attempt to address these issues, rebuild dialogue and respect between communities, outside scientists and administrators, and move forward in volcanic hazard education and planning for Ambae, we adapted and applied Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) approaches. Initial gender-segregated PRA exercises from two representative communities provided a mechanism for cataloguing local traditional viewpoints and hazard perceptions. Ultimately, by combining elements of these viewpoints and perceptions with science-based management structures, we derived volcanic hazard management guidelines, supported by an alert system and map that were more readily accepted by the test communities than the earlier “top-down” plans imposed by outside governmental and scientific agencies. The strength of PRA approaches is that they permit scientists to understand important local perspective issues, including visualisations of volcanic hazards, weaknesses in internal and external communication systems, and gender and hierarchy conflicts, all of which can hinder community emergency management. The approach we describe has much to offer both developing and industrialised communities that wish to improve their awareness programs and mitigative planning. This approach should also enhance communication and understanding between volcanologists and the communities they serve.

CONTAMINATION OF PUBLIC GROUND WATER SUPPLIES BY SUPERFUND SITES

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple sources of contamination can affect ground water supplies, including municipal landfills, industrial operations, leaking underground storage tanks, septic tank systems, and prioritized uncontrolled hazardous waste sites known as “Superfund” sites. A review of Superfund R...

POHCS AND PICS SCREENING PROTOCOL

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes risk-driven analysis strategies and a tiered survey approach of analyses that should be useful for building data bases related to other waste combustion processes. NOTE: The need to characterize hazardous waste incinerator emissions for multiple organic compo...

Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, R. S.

2009-12-01

A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

Examples Not Numbers: Using Historical Events To Present Regional Hazard Information And Stimulate Client Thinking In The Insurance Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pile, J.; Switzer, A.; Gouramanis, C.; Rush, B.; Reynolds, I.; Ryrie, S.; Soria, L.

2013-12-01

Coastal hazards, including tsunami and storm surges, periodically affect many of the world's coasts. Re-insurers and insurance companies use a variety of means to understand and quantify the recurrence interval and risk of such events. Such work is done with the primary aim of placing monetary values on the risk. This collective understanding is often gleaned from the available scientific literature and commonly makes use of maps to delineate areas of risk that assist in communicating risk with clients. In this study we approached the problem of producing an integrated map of coastal hazards (storm and tsunami) for much of southeast Asia (including the Bay of Bengal and northern Australia). Initial analysis showed that assessments based on the short, partial and, for the most part, fragmentary documented history of past events in southeast Asia, would deem almost every coast on the map at high risk of coastal hazards at the regional scale. Although this may be true to a certain extent it would be unjust and unscientific to label entire coastlines 'high risk' as clearly particular sites on any coast are more susceptible to coastal hazards at the local scale. This raises the question: What is the best way to communicate risk at a regional scale without broad generalisations? Our recent collaboration with a major re-insurer lead to the creation of a new form of map (poster) for their clientele using a case study approach aimed at getting clients to think about the details of historical events in the context of localised risk. Using the pedagogical premise of 'Concept, Example, Consequence', we highlight risk in a way that will hopefully stimulate thought among practitioners and provide an alternative to the broad generalizations found in many products in the marketplace. The envisaged outcome is to enhance communication of site-specific risk assessments between stakeholders and encourage a better understanding of localised and regional risk.

Evaluation of Different Speech and Touch Interfaces to In-Vehicle Music Retrieval Systems

PubMed Central

Garay-Vega, L.; Pradhan, A. K.; Weinberg, G.; Schmidt-Nielsen, B.; Harsham, B.; Shen, Y.; Divekar, G.; Romoser, M.; Knodler, M.; Fisher, D. L.

2010-01-01

In-vehicle music retrieval systems are becoming more and more popular. Previous studies have shown that they pose a real hazard to drivers when the interface is a tactile one which requires multiple entries and a combination of manual control and visual feedback. Voice interfaces exist as an alternative. Such interfaces can require either multiple or single conversational turns. In this study, each of 17 participants between the ages of 18 and 30 years old was asked to use three different music-retrieval systems (one with a multiple entry touch interface, the iPod™, one with a multiple turn voice interface, interface B, and one with a single turn voice interface, interface C) while driving through a virtual world. Measures of secondary task performance, eye behavior, vehicle control, and workload were recorded. When compared with the touch interface, the voice interfaces reduced the total time drivers spent with their eyes off the forward roadway, especially in prolonged glances, as well as both the total number of glances away from the forward roadway and the perceived workload. Furthermore, when compared with driving without a secondary task, both voice interfaces did not significantly impact hazard anticipation, the frequency of long glances away from the forward roadway, or vehicle control. The multiple turn voice interface (B) significantly increased both the time it took drivers to complete the task and the workload. The implications for interface design and safety are discussed. PMID:20380920

Gis-based assessment of marine oil spill hazard and environmental vulnerability for the coasts of Crete in South Aegean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spanoudaki, Katerina; Nikiforakis, Ioannis K.; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

2017-04-01

Developing effective early warning and coordination systems can save thousands of lives and protect people, property and the environment in the event of natural and man-made disasters. In its document "Towards Better Protection of Citizens against Disaster Risks: Strengthening Early Warning Systems in Europe", the Commission points out that it seeks to follow a multi-hazard approach, to develop near real time alert systems, to ensure a near real time dissemination of alerts to Participating States, and to improve its rapid analytical capacity. In this context, the EU project DECATASTROPHIZE (http://decatastrophize.eu/project/) co-financed by the EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection aims to develop a Geospatial Early warning Decision Support System (GE-DSS) to assess, prepare for and respond to multiple and/or simultaneous natural and man-made hazards, disasters, and environmental incidents by using existing models/systems in each partner country (Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy and Spain) in a synergistic way on ONE multi-platform, called DECAT. Specifically, project partners will establish appropriate geo-databases for test areas and use existing hazard models to produce hazard and vulnerability geo-spatial information for earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, floods, forest fires and marine oil spills. The GE-DSS in will consist of one source code with six geodatabases, i.e., one for each partner and risk data in the respective test area. Each partner organization will be able to manage and monitor its own data/database and their results using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The GE-DSS will be demonstrated at the local, regional and national levels through a set of Command Post and Table Top Disaster Exercises. As part of the DECAT GE-DSS, the gis-based geo-database and assessment of marine oil spill hazard and environmental vulnerability for the coasts of Crete in South Aegean Sea are presented here. Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) maps are produced comprising shoreline classification - ranked according to a scale relating to sensitivity, natural persistence of oil, and ease of cleanup (Adler and Inbar, 2007; Alves et al., 2014) - biological resources and human-use resources, i.e. specific areas that have added sensitivity and value because of their use, such as beaches, water intakes, and archaeological sites (NOAA, 2002). Seasonal hazard maps (surface oil slick, beached oil) are produced employing a modified version of the open source Lagrangian oil spill fate and transport model MEDSLIK-II (http://medslikii.bo.ingv.it/) coupled with a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model. The model predicts the transport and weathering of oil spills following a Lagrangian approach for the solution of the advection-diffusion equation. Transport is governed by the 3D sea currents and wave field. In addition to advective and diffusive displacements, the model simulates several physical and chemical processes that transform the oil (evaporation, emulsification, dispersion in the water column, biodegradation, adhesion to coast). The analysis is carried out under multiple oil spill scenarios accounting for the busiest ship lanes and meteorological conditions using multiple year hydrodynamics. The results highlight the hazard faced by coastal areas of Crete with high ESI. Acknowledgement This work has been co-financed by the EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection under Grant Agreement No. ECHO/SUB/2015/713788/PREP - Project ''DECATASTROPHIZE : UsE of SDSS and MCDA To prepAre for diSasTeRs Or Plan for multIplE HaZards''. References Adler, E. & Inbar, M. (2007). Shoreline sensitivity to oil spills, the Mediterranean coast of Israel: Assessment and analysis. Ocean Coast. Manage., 50 (1-2), 24-34. Alves, T. M., Kokinou, E. & Zodiatis, G. A (2014). A three-step model to assess shoreline and offshore susceptibility to oil spills: The South Aegean (Crete) as an analogue for confined marine basins. Mar. Poll. Bull., 86, 443-457. NOAA (2002). Environmental Sensitivity Index Guidelines, version 3.0. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS OR&R 11. Seattle: Hazardous Response and Assessment Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 129p.

The Psychology of Hazard Risk Perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. F.

2012-12-01

A critical step in preparing for natural hazards is understanding the risk: what is the hazard, its likelihood and range of impacts, and what are the vulnerabilities of the community? Any hazard forecast naturally includes a degree of uncertainty, and often these uncertainties are expressed in terms of probabilities. There is often a strong understanding of probability among the physical scientists and emergency managers who create hazard forecasts and issue watches, warnings, and evacuation orders, and often such experts expect similar levels of risk fluency among the general public—indeed, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) states in the introduction to its earthquake rupture forecast maps that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities—from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [1] However, cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [see, e.g., 2-5] that the WGCEP's expectation of probability literacy is inaccurate. People neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probability information, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [6]. Even the most ubiquitous of probabilistic information—weather forecasts—are systematically misinterpreted [7]. So while disaster risk analysis and assessment is undoubtedly a critical step in public preparedness and hazard mitigation plans, it is equally important that scientists and practitioners understand the common psychological barriers to accurate probability perception before they attempt to communicate hazard risks to the public. This paper discusses several common, systematic distortions in probability perception and use, including: the influence of personal experience on use of statistical information; temporal discounting and construal level theory; the effect of instrumentality on risk perception; and the impact of "false alarms" or "near misses." We conclude with practical recommendations for ways that risk communications may best be presented to avoid (or, in some cases, to capitalize on) these typical psychological hurdles to the understanding of risk. 1 http://www.scec.org/ucerf/ 2 Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, XLVII: 263-291. 3 Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., Kiefer, J., & Hertwig, R. (2008). The Description/Experience Gap in Risky Choice: The Role of Sample Size and Experienced Probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21: 493-518. 4 Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M., & Combs, B. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. JEP: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578. 5 Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2006). The role of information sampling in risky choice. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition. (pp. 75-91). New York: Cambridge U Press. 6 Budescu, DV, Weinberg, S & Wallsten, TS (1987). Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties. JEP: Human Perception and Performance, 14(2), 281-294. 7 Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Van Den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., & Katsikopoulos, K. V. (2005). "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25(3), 623-629.

A suggested approach to the selection of chemical and biological protective clothing--meeting industry and emergency response needs for protection against a variety of hazards.

PubMed

Stull, Jeffrey O

2004-01-01

The paper describes the development of a comprehensive decision logic for selection and use of biological and chemical protective clothing (BCPC). The decision logic recognizes the separate areas of BCPC use among emergency, biological, and chemical hazards. The proposed decision logic provides a system for type classifying BCPC in terms of its compliance with existing standards (for emergency applications), the overall clothing integrity, and the material barrier performance. Type classification is offered for garments, gloves, footwear, and eye/face protection devices. On the basis of multiple, but simply designed flowcharts, the type of BCPC appropriate for specific biological and chemical hazards can be selected. The decision logic also provides supplemental considerations for choosing appropriate BCPC features.

Employee health surveillance in the health care industry.

PubMed

Hood, Joyce; Larrañaga, Michael

2007-10-01

This article provides an overview of the fundamental and inherent challenges in developing a health surveillance program for a health care facility. These challenges are similar to those facing individuals responsible for developing health surveillance programs for multiple industries because several "mini-industries" exist within hospitals. Hazards can range from those that are regulated by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to those that are unregulated but pose a threat to health care workers. Occupational hazards that are unique to the health care industry also exist. A health surveillance program can be developed with focused assessment and a strong occupational safety and health program. Implementation can occur within a health care setting with the buy-in of the many stakeholders involved, especially supervisors managing departments where chemical and other hazards are present.

Infrasonic crackle and supersonic jet noise from the eruption of Nabro Volcano, Eritrea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fee, David; Matoza, Robin S.; Gee, Kent L.; Neilsen, Tracianne B.; Ogden, Darcy E.

2013-08-01

The lowermost portion of an explosive volcanic eruption column is considered a momentum-driven jet. Understanding volcanic jets is critical for determining eruption column dynamics and mitigating volcanic hazards; however, volcanic jets are inherently difficult to observe due to their violence and opacity. Infrasound from the 2011 eruption of Nabro Volcano, Eritrea has waveform features highly similar to the "crackle" phenomenon uniquely produced by man-made supersonic jet engines and rockets and is characterized by repeated asymmetric compressions followed by weaker, gradual rarefactions. This infrasonic crackle indicates that infrasound source mechanisms in sustained volcanic eruptions are strikingly similar to jet noise sources from heated, supersonic jet engines and rockets, suggesting that volcanologists can utilize the modeling and physical understandings of man-made jets to understand volcanic jets. The unique, distinctive infrasonic crackle from Nabro highlights the use of infrasound to remotely detect and characterize hazardous eruptions and its potential to determine volcanic jet parameters.

Volcanic Risk Perception and Preparedness in Communities within the Mount Baker and Glacier Peak Lahar Hazard Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2014-12-01

A community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from natural hazards depends on both the physical characteristics of the hazard and the community's inherent resilience. Resilience is shaped by a number of factors including the residents' perception of and preparedness for a natural hazard as well as the level of institutional preparedness. This study examines perception of and preparedness for lahar hazards from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak in Washington's Skagit Valley. Through an online survey, this study isolates the influence of specific variables (e.g., knowledge, past experience, scientific background, trust in various information sources, occupation, self-efficacy, sense of community) on risk perception and explores reasons behind the frequent disconnect between perception and preparedness. We anticipate that individuals with more extensive education in the sciences, especially geology or earth science, foster greater trust in scientists and a more accurate knowledge, understanding, and perception of the volcanic hazards in their community. Additionally, little research exists examining the extent to which first responders and leaders in response-related institutions prepare on a personal level. Since these individuals work toward community preparedness professionally, we hypothesize that they will be more prepared at home than members of the general public. Finally, the Skagit Valley has a significant history of flooding. We expect that the need to respond to and recover from frequent flooding creates a community with an inherently higher level of preparedness for other hazards such as lahars. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of what controls risk perception and the interplay between perception and preparedness. At a broader level, this study provides local and state-level emergency managers information to evaluate and improve response capabilities and communication with the public and key institutions in order to more effectively protect communities during future crises.

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

2011-07-01

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Risk and Response to the Wind Turbine Ice Throw Hazard: Comparing Community Stakeholders and Operations and Maintenance Personnel in Two Regions of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Greg

Risk managers who work directly with wind energy know that accumulations of ice on wind turbine blades pose a substantial risk to wind farm employees and a lesser extent to the general public. However, overall, the hazards of ice throw are not generally known to the public, as there has not been a significant event in the U.S. which has drawn any media attention. As we continue to install more and more turbines, the number of people exposed greatly increases, and it is only a matter of time before the industry suffers a severe incident or even a fatality. Thus, the goals of this research were threefold: 1) to understand the extent to which two at-risk groups--community stakeholders as well as operations and maintenance personnel at wind farms might differ in their perceived levels of risk to the ice throw hazard; 2) to understand the degree to which community stakeholders and operations and maintenance might differ on choosing measures of protection for their affected areas; and 3) to improve safety by identifying protective measures that all stakeholders--community citizens, wind farm employees, contractors, and land owners--are willing to undertake to mitigate their risk against the ice throw hazard which includes adopting measures to reduce their own risk toward the hazard, as well as, their community's vulnerability toward the hazards and threat of ice throw from wind turbines. This research also makes a valuable contribution to the theoretical body of risk research with respect to a technological hazard for which little is known. This research found that the two groups differed on statistically significant variables for observed risk, perceived personal risk, risk to the community, levels of trust in safety leaders, best protective actions, and preferred warning systems; however, there was no statistical significance between the groups on perceived benefits of wind energy.

Which came first, people or pollution? A review of theory and evidence from longitudinal environmental justice studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohai, Paul; Saha, Robin

2015-12-01

A considerable number of quantitative analyses have been conducted in the past several decades that demonstrate the existence of racial and socioeconomic disparities in the distribution of a wide variety of environmental hazards. The vast majority of these have been cross-sectional, snapshot studies employing data on hazardous facilities and population characteristics at only one point in time. Although some limited hypotheses can be tested with cross-sectional data, fully understanding how present-day disparities come about requires longitudinal analyses that examine the demographic characteristics of sites at the time of facility siting and track demographic changes after siting. Relatively few such studies exist and those that do exist have often led to confusing and contradictory findings. In this paper we review the theoretical arguments, methods, findings, and conclusions drawn from existing longitudinal environmental justice studies. Our goal is to make sense of this literature and to identify the direction future research should take in order to resolve confusion and arrive at a clearer understanding of the processes and contributory factors by which present-day racial and socioeconomic disparities in the distribution of environmental hazards have come about. Such understandings also serve as an important step in identifying appropriate and effective societal responses to ameliorate environmental disparities.

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Passive imaging based multi-cue hazard detection spacecraft safe landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huertas, Andres; Cheng, Yang; Madison, Richard

2006-01-01

Accurate assessment of potentially damaging ground hazards during the spacecraft EDL (Entry, Descent and Landing) phase is crucial to insure a high probability of safe landing. A lander that encounters a large rock, falls off a cliff, or tips over on a steep slope can sustain mission ending damage. Guided entry is expected to shrink landing ellipses from 100-300 km to -10 km radius for the second generation landers as early as 2009. Regardless of size and location, however, landing ellipses will almost always contain hazards such as craters, discontinuities, steep slopes, and large rocks. It is estimated that an MSL (Mars Science Laboratory)-sized lander should detect and avoid 16- 150m diameter craters, vertical drops similar to the edges of 16m or 3.75m diameter crater, for high and low altitude HAD (Hazard Detection and Avoidance) respectively. It should also be able to detect slopes 20' or steeper, and rocks 0.75m or taller. In this paper we will present a passive imaging based, multi-cue hazard detection and avoidance (HDA) system suitable for Martian and other lander missions. This is the first passively imaged HDA system that seamlessly integrates multiple algorithm-crater detection, slope estimation, rock detection and texture analysis, and multicues- crater morphology, rock distribution, to detect these hazards in real time.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihunov, V.

2017-12-01

The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be altered in order to create a possibility for innovative solutions. If the state of the art in technical perspectives allows constructions with limited additional risk, multiple-use structures are an option in risk management. The present and future land-use pressure also intensifies the economic interest in finding and accepting such measures.

Identifying and prioritizing gaming workers' health and safety concerns using mapping for data collection.

PubMed

Keith, M M; Cann, B; Brophy, J T; Hellyer, D; Day, M; Egan, S; Mayville, K; Watterson, A

2001-01-01

This research was prompted by the clinical presentation of workers from a variety of gaming occupations with injuries and illnesses and multiple health and safety concerns. Using participatory action research principles, 51 gaming workers in Ontario and 20 gaming workers in Manitoba were consulted during a series of focus group sessions. Mapping exercises were used to survey the participants about their health concerns, perceived occupational hazards and the impact of working conditions on their personal lives. Participants were then asked to prioritize their concerns and make recommendations for improvements. Gaming workers from both provinces identified similar health, hazard and psycho-social concerns. They prioritized the issues of stress, ergonomics, indoor air quality (including second-hand smoke and temperature), biological hazards, physical hazards and noise. This study points to a need to more fully investigate and address health and safety issues in the gaming industry. It also demonstrates the effectiveness of a worker-driven, participatory consultation. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Performance evaluation of a semi-active cladding connection for multi-hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Yongqiang; Cao, Liang; Micheli, Laura; Laflamme, Simon; Quiel, Spencer; Ricles, James

2018-03-01

A novel semi-active damping device termed Variable Friction Cladding Connection (VFCC) has been previously proposed to leverage cladding systems for the mitigation of natural and man-made hazards. The VFCC is a semi-active friction damper that connects cladding elements to the structural system. The friction force is generated by sliding plates and varied using an actuator through a system of adjustable toggles. The dynamics of the device has been previously characterized in a laboratory environment. In this paper, the performance of the VFCC at mitigating non-simultaneous multi-hazard excitations that includes wind and seismic loads is investigated on a simulated benchmark building. Simulations consider the robustness with respect to some uncertainties, including the wear of the friction surfaces and sensor failure. The performance of the VFCC is compared against other connection strategies including traditional stiffness, passive viscous, and passive friction elements. Results show that the VFCC is robust and capable of outperforming passive systems for the mitigation of multiple hazards.

Accounting for vulnerable populations in rural hazard mitigation plans: results of a survey of emergency managers.

PubMed

Horney, Jennifer A; Nguyen, Mai; Cooper, John; Simon, Matthew; Ricchetti-Masterson, Kristen; Grabich, Shannon; Salvesen, David; Berke, Philip

2013-01-01

Rural areas of the United States are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of natural disasters. One possible way to mitigate vulnerability to disasters in rural communities is to have a high-quality hazard mitigation plan in place. To understand the resources available for hazard mitigation planning and determine how well hazard mitigation plans in rural counties meet the needs of vulnerable populations, we surveyed the lead planning or emergency management official responsible for hazard mitigation plans in 96 rural counties in eight states in the Southeastern United States. In most counties, emergency management was responsible for implementing the county's hazard mitigation plan and the majority of counties had experienced a presidentially declared disaster in the last 5 years. Our research findings demonstrated that there were differences in subjective measures of vulnerability (as reported by survey respondents) and objective measures of vulnerability (as determined by US Census data). In addition, although few counties surveyed included outreach to vulnerable groups as a part of their hazard mitigation planning process, a majority felt that their hazard mitigation plan addressed the needs of vulnerable populations "well" or "very well." These differences could result in increased vulnerabilities in rural areas, particularly for certain vulnerable groups.

Decreased pain sensitivity due to trimethylbenzene exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Traditionally, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification, often using the Hill criteria and weight of evidence determinations to integrate data from multiple studies. Recently, the National Research Council has recommended the development of quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application of meta-analyses. The following hazard identification case study applies qualitative as well as meta-analytic approaches to trimethylbenzene (TMB) isomers exposure and the potential neurotoxic effects on pain sensitivity. In the meta-analytic approach, a pooled effect size is calculated, after consideration of multiple confounding factors, in order to determine whether the entire database under consideration indicates that TMBs are likely to be a neurotoxic hazard. The pain sensitivity studies included in the present analyses initially seem discordant in their results: effects on pain sensitivity are seen immediately after termination of exposure, appear to resolve 24 hours after exposure, and then reappear 50 days later following foot-shock. Qualitative consideration of toxicological and toxicokinetic characteristics of the TMB isomers suggests that the observed differences between studies are due to testing time and can be explained through a complete consideration of the underlying biology of the effect and the nervous system as a whole. Meta-analyses and –regressions support this conclus

Work-related determinants of multi-site musculoskeletal pain among employees in the health care sector.

PubMed

Neupane, Subas; Nygård, Clas-Håkan; Oakman, Jodi

2016-06-16

Work-related musculoskeletal pain is a major occupational problem. Those with pain in multiple sites usually report worse health outcomes than those with pain in one site. This study explored prevalence and associated predictors of multi-site pain in health care sector employees. Survey responses from 1348 health care sector employees across three organisations (37% response rate) collected data on job satisfaction, work life balance, psychosocial and physical hazards, general health and work ability. Musculoskeletal discomfort was measured across 5 body regions with pain in ≥ 2 sites defined as multi-site pain. Generalized linear models were used to identify relationships between work-related factors and multi-site pain. Over 52% of the employees reported pain in multiple body sites and 19% reported pain in one site. Poor work life balance (PRR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.06-5.14). physical (PRR = 7.58, 95% CI = 4.89-11.77) and psychosocial (PRR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.00-2.57) hazard variables were related to multi-site pain (after controlling for age, gender, health and work ability. Older employees and females were more likely to report multi-site pain. Effective risk management of work related multi-site pain must include identification and control of psychosocial and physical hazards.

Volcanic hazards at distant critical infrastructure: A method for bespoke, multi-disciplinary assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odbert, H. M.; Aspinall, W.; Phillips, J.; Jenkins, S.; Wilson, T. M.; Scourse, E.; Sheldrake, T.; Tucker, P.; Nakeshree, K.; Bernardara, P.; Fish, K.

2015-12-01

Societies rely on critical services such as power, water, transport networks and manufacturing. Infrastructure may be sited to minimise exposure to natural hazards but not all can be avoided. The probability of long-range transport of a volcanic plume to a site is comparable to other external hazards that must be considered to satisfy safety assessments. Recent advances in numerical models of plume dispersion and stochastic modelling provide a formalized and transparent approach to probabilistic assessment of hazard distribution. To understand the risks to critical infrastructure far from volcanic sources, it is necessary to quantify their vulnerability to different hazard stressors. However, infrastructure assets (e.g. power plantsand operational facilities) are typically complex systems in themselves, with interdependent components that may differ in susceptibility to hazard impact. Usually, such complexity means that risk either cannot be estimated formally or that unsatisfactory simplifying assumptions are prerequisite to building a tractable risk model. We present a new approach to quantifying risk by bridging expertise of physical hazard modellers and infrastructure engineers. We use a joint expert judgment approach to determine hazard model inputs and constrain associated uncertainties. Model outputs are chosen on the basis of engineering or operational concerns. The procedure facilitates an interface between physical scientists, with expertise in volcanic hazards, and infrastructure engineers, with insight into vulnerability to hazards. The result is a joined-up approach to estimating risk from low-probability hazards to critical infrastructure. We describe our methodology and show preliminary results for vulnerability to volcanic hazards at a typical UK industrial facility. We discuss our findings in the context of developing bespoke assessment of hazards from distant sources in collaboration with key infrastructure stakeholders.

Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

2014-05-01

Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

Assessing the Climate Resilience of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J. W.; Pant, R.; Koks, E.; Thacker, S.; Russell, T.

2017-12-01

Whilst there is an urgent need for infrastructure investment in developing countries, there is a risk that poorly planned and built infrastructure will introduce new vulnerabilities. As climate change increases the magnitudes and frequency of natural hazard events, incidence of disruptive infrastructure failures are likely to become more frequent. Therefore, it is important that infrastructure planning and investment is underpinned by climate risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning. Tanzania's rapid economic growth is placing considerable strain on the country's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, shipping and aviation); especially at the port of Dar es Salaam and its linking transport corridors. A growing number of natural hazard events, in particular flooding, are impacting the reliability of this already over-used network. Here we report on new methodology to analyse vulnerabilities and risks due to failures of key locations in the intermodal transport network of Tanzania, including strategic connectivity to neighboring countries. To perform the national-scale risk analysis we will utilize a system-of-systems methodology. The main components of this general risk assessment, when applied to transportation systems, include: (1) Assembling data on: spatially coherent extreme hazards and intermodal transportation networks; (2) Intersecting hazards with transport network models to initiate failure conditions that trigger failure propagation across interdependent networks; (3) Quantifying failure outcomes in terms of social impacts (customers/passengers disrupted) and/or macroeconomic consequences (across multiple sectors); and (4) Simulating, testing and collecting multiple failure scenarios to perform an exhaustive risk assessment in terms of probabilities and consequences. The methodology is being used to pinpoint vulnerability and reduce climate risks to transport infrastructure investments.

Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Fraction Multiplication, Representational Knowledge, and Computational Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Son, Ji-Won; Lee, Ji-Eun

2016-01-01

Despite the importance of teacher fractional knowledge, there are several areas of teacher understanding that are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to characterise profiles of pre-service teachers' (PSTs) mathematical competence on the topic of fraction multiplication by examining PSTs' understanding of multiplication of fractions…

Radiological Worker II Training, Course 20301 (Live), Course 12909 (Test)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Jimmy D.

Radiological worker training is the basic building block for any additional radiological training you may receive. Upon completing radiological worker training, you will have the basic knowledge needed to work safely, using proper radiological practices, in areas where radiological hazards exist. You will also have a better understanding of the hazards and responsibilities associated with radiological work to help prevent the carelessness that can occur when working continually with or around radioactive material. This course does not qualify you for any specific radiological work. You may be required to take additional training at individual facilities to address facility- and job-specificmore » hazards and procedures.« less

Natural Hazards, Second Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhban, Badaoui

Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

Evidence for Near-Road Air Pollution Abatement by Tree Cover

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanized areas represent concentrated demand for ecosystem services to buffer hazards and promote healthful lifestyles. Urban tree cover has been linked to multiple local health benefits including clean air and water, flood and drought protection, heat mitigation, and opportuni...

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks communication have to be based on citizen knowledge and conscious in natural hazards. In fact, informed citizen could participate actively in decision in urban development planning and accept positively legislation and regulation introduced to avoid natural risks. The study has gone some way towards enhancing understanding in citizens conscious in natural risks and allow us to say that communication on natural risks could not be based only in transferring emergency behavior to citizens but also allow people to improve their knowledge in landscape evolution in order to assume aware environmental behavior.

Coordinating an Autonomous Earth-Observing Sensorweb

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwood, Robert; Cichy, Benjamin; Tran, Daniel; Chien, Steve; Rabideau, Gregg; Davies, Ashley; Castano, Rebecca; frye, Stuart; Mandl, Dan; Shulman, Seth;

A Bayesian Hybrid Adaptive Randomisation Design for Clinical Trials with Survival Outcomes.

PubMed

Moatti, M; Chevret, S; Zohar, S; Rosenberger, W F

2016-01-01

Response-adaptive randomisation designs have been proposed to improve the efficiency of phase III randomised clinical trials and improve the outcomes of the clinical trial population. In the setting of failure time outcomes, Zhang and Rosenberger (2007) developed a response-adaptive randomisation approach that targets an optimal allocation, based on a fixed sample size. The aim of this research is to propose a response-adaptive randomisation procedure for survival trials with an interim monitoring plan, based on the following optimal criterion: for fixed variance of the estimated log hazard ratio, what allocation minimizes the expected hazard of failure? We demonstrate the utility of the design by redesigning a clinical trial on multiple myeloma. To handle continuous monitoring of data, we propose a Bayesian response-adaptive randomisation procedure, where the log hazard ratio is the effect measure of interest. Combining the prior with the normal likelihood, the mean posterior estimate of the log hazard ratio allows derivation of the optimal target allocation. We perform a simulation study to assess and compare the performance of this proposed Bayesian hybrid adaptive design to those of fixed, sequential or adaptive - either frequentist or fully Bayesian - designs. Non informative normal priors of the log hazard ratio were used, as well as mixture of enthusiastic and skeptical priors. Stopping rules based on the posterior distribution of the log hazard ratio were computed. The method is then illustrated by redesigning a phase III randomised clinical trial of chemotherapy in patients with multiple myeloma, with mixture of normal priors elicited from experts. As expected, there was a reduction in the proportion of observed deaths in the adaptive vs. non-adaptive designs; this reduction was maximized using a Bayes mixture prior, with no clear-cut improvement by using a fully Bayesian procedure. The use of stopping rules allows a slight decrease in the observed proportion of deaths under the alternate hypothesis compared with the adaptive designs with no stopping rules. Such Bayesian hybrid adaptive survival trials may be promising alternatives to traditional designs, reducing the duration of survival trials, as well as optimizing the ethical concerns for patients enrolled in the trial.

The Array Representation and Primary Children's Understanding and Reasoning in Multiplication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barmby, Patrick; Harries, Tony; Higgins, Steve; Suggate, Jennifer

2009-01-01

We examine whether the array representation can support children's understanding and reasoning in multiplication. To begin, we define what we mean by understanding and reasoning. We adopt a "representational-reasoning" model of understanding, where understanding is seen as connections being made between mental representations of concepts, with…

Hybrid Modeling Approach to Estimate Exposures of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) for the National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).

PubMed

Scheffe, Richard D; Strum, Madeleine; Phillips, Sharon B; Thurman, James; Eyth, Alison; Fudge, Steve; Morris, Mark; Palma, Ted; Cook, Richard

2016-11-15

A hybrid air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate annual concentrations of 40 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) across the continental United States (CONUS) to support the 2011 calendar year National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). By combining a chemical transport model (CTM) with a Gaussian dispersion model, both reactive and nonreactive HAPs are accommodated across local to regional spatial scales, through a multiplicative technique designed to improve mass conservation relative to previous additive methods. The broad scope of multiple pollutants capturing regional to local spatial scale patterns across a vast spatial domain is precedent setting within the air toxics community. The hybrid design exhibits improved performance relative to the stand alone CTM and dispersion model. However, model performance varies widely across pollutant categories and quantifiably definitive performance assessments are hampered by a limited observation base and challenged by the multiple physical and chemical attributes of HAPs. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are the dominant HAP concentration and cancer risk drivers, characterized by strong regional signals associated with naturally emitted carbonyl precursors enhanced in urban transport corridors with strong mobile source sector emissions. The multiple pollutant emission characteristics of combustion dominated source sectors creates largely similar concentration patterns across the majority of HAPs. However, reactive carbonyls exhibit significantly less spatial variability relative to nonreactive HAPs across the CONUS.

Collaborative community hazard exposure mapping: Distant Early Warning radar sites in Alaska's North Slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, M.

2015-12-01

A method to produce hazard exposure maps that are developed in collaboration with local coastal communities is the focus of this research. Typically efforts to map community exposure to climate threats over large areas have limited consideration of local perspectives about associated risks, constraining their utility for local management. This problem is especially acute in remote locations such as the Arctic where there are unique vulnerabilities to coastal threats that can be fully understood only through inclusion of community stakeholders. Through collaboration with community members, this study identifies important coastal assets and places and surveys local perspectives of exposure to climate threats along Alaska's vast North Slope coastline spanning multiple municipalities. To model physical exposure, the study adapts the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to the Arctic context by incorporating the effects of open water distance determined by sea ice extent, and assigning CVI values to coastal assets and places according to direction and proximity. The study found that in addition to concerns about exposed municipal and industrial assets, North Slope communities viewed exposure of traditional activity sites as presenting a particular risk for communities. Highly exposed legacy Cold War Distant Early Warning Line sites are of particular concern with impacts ranging from financial risk to contamination of sensitive coastal marine environments. This research demonstrates a method to collaboratively map community exposure to coastal climate threats to better understand local risks and produce locally usable exposure maps.

Adaptively Parameterized Tomography of the Western Hellenic Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, S. E.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

2017-12-01

The Hellenic subduction zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe and plays a major role in the active tectonics of the eastern Mediterranean. This complicated environment has the potential to generate both large magnitude (M > 8) earthquakes and tsunamis. Situated above the western end of the HSZ, Greece faces a high risk from these geologic hazards, and characterizing this risk requires detailed understanding of the geodynamic processes occurring in this area. However, despite previous investigations, the kinematics of the HSZ are still controversial. Regional tomographic studies have yielded important information about the shallow seismic structure of the HSZ, but these models only image down to 150 km depth within small geographic areas. Deeper structure is constrained by global tomographic models but with coarser resolution ( 200-300 km). Additionally, current tomographic models focused on the HSZ were generated with regularly-spaced gridding, and this type of parameterization often over-emphasizes poorly sampled regions of the model or under-represents small-scale structure. Therefore, we are developing a new, high-resolution image of the mantle structure beneath the western HSZ using an adaptively parameterized seismic tomography approach. By combining multiple, regional travel-time datasets in the context of a global model, with adaptable gridding based on the sampling density of high-frequency data, this method generates a composite model of mantle structure that is being used to better characterize geodynamic processes within the HSZ, thereby allowing for improved hazard assessment. Preliminary results will be shown.

Effect of Personal Characteristics on Individual Support for Indoor Smoke-Free Air Laws, Indiana, 2008

PubMed Central

Zollinger, Terrell W.; Robinson, Joshua J.; Jay, Stephen J.; Spitznagle, Miranda H.

2012-01-01

Introduction Policy makers should understand the attitudes and beliefs of their constituents regarding smoke-free air legislation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of selected personal characteristics on attitudes and beliefs about secondhand smoke in Indiana and on support for smoke-free air laws. Methods Data were obtained from the 2008 Indiana Adult Tobacco Survey of 2,140 adults and included 11 sociodemographic variables. Chi-square and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to test for significant associations between sociodemographic characteristics and support for statewide or community smoke-free air legislation. Results Most respondents (72.3%) indicated that they supported laws making work places smoke-free. After adjusting for the effects of the other variables, 3 were found to be significant predictors of support: being a never or former smoker, being female, and being aware of the health hazards of secondhand smoke. Age, race/ethnicity, income, urban or rural county of residence, employment status, and having children in the household were not significant when adjusting for the other characteristics. Conclusion Most Indiana residents support smoke-free air legislation for workplaces. The support was constant among most groups across the state, suggesting policy makers would have the backing of their constituents to pass such legislation. The results of this study suggest that efforts to gain support for smoke-free air laws should focus on men, people unaware of the health hazards from secondhand smoke, and smokers and former smokers. PMID:23036612

Workplace bullying a risk for permanent employees.

PubMed

Keuskamp, Dominic; Ziersch, Anna M; Baum, Fran E; Lamontagne, Anthony D

2012-04-01

We tested the hypothesis that the risk of experiencing workplace bullying was greater for those employed on casual contracts compared to permanent or ongoing employees. A cross-sectional population-based telephone survey was conducted in South Australia in 2009. Employment arrangements were classified by self-report into four categories: permanent, casual, fixed-term and self-employed. Self-report of workplace bullying was modelled using multiple logistic regression in relation to employment arrangement, controlling for sex, age, working hours, years in job, occupational skill level, marital status and a proxy for socioeconomic status. Workplace bullying was reported by 174 respondents (15.2%). Risk of workplace bullying was higher for being in a professional occupation, having a university education and being separated, divorced or widowed, but did not vary significantly by sex, age or job tenure. In adjusted multivariate logistic regression models, casual workers were significantly less likely than workers on permanent or fixed-term contracts to report bullying. Those separated, divorced or widowed had higher odds of reporting bullying than married, de facto or never-married workers. Contrary to expectation, workplace bullying was more often reported by permanent than casual employees. It may represent an exposure pathway not previously linked with the more idealised permanent employment arrangement. A finer understanding of psycho-social hazards across all employment arrangements is needed, with equal attention to the hazards associated with permanent as well as casual employment. © 2012 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2012 Public Health Association of Australia.

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

PubMed

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lung disease and coal mining: what pulmonologists need to know.

PubMed

Go, Leonard H T; Krefft, Silpa D; Cohen, Robert A; Rose, Cecile S

2016-03-01

Coal mine workers are at risk for a range of chronic respiratory diseases including coal workers' pneumoconiosis, diffuse dust-related fibrosis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The purpose of this review is to describe coal mining processes and associated exposures to inform the diagnostic evaluation of miners with respiratory symptoms. Although rates of coal workers' pneumoconiosis declined after regulations were enacted in the 1970s, more recent data shows a reversal in this downward trend. Rapidly progressive pneumoconiosis with progressive massive fibrosis (complicated coal workers' pneumoconiosis) is being observed with increased frequency in United States coal miners, with histologic findings of silicosis and mixed-dust pneumoconiosis. There is increasing evidence of decline in lung function in individuals with pneumoconiosis. Multiple recent cohort studies suggest increased risk of lung cancer in coal miners. A detailed understanding of coal mining methods and processes allows clinicians to better evaluate and confirm chronic lung diseases caused by inhalational hazards in the mine atmosphere.

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingrove, R. C.; Bach, R. E., Jr.; Schultz, T. A.

1989-01-01

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. The study demonstrates that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

A Statistical Examination of Magnetic Field Model Accuracy for Mapping Geosynchronous Solar Energetic Particle Observations to Lower Earth Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, S. L.; Kress, B. T.; Rodriguez, J. V.; McCollough, J. P.

2013-12-01

Operational specifications of space environmental hazards can be an important input used by decision makers. Ideally the specification would come from on-board sensors, but for satellites where that capability is not available another option is to map data from remote observations to the location of the satellite. This requires a model of the physical environment and an understanding of its accuracy for mapping applications. We present a statistical comparison between magnetic field model mappings of solar energetic particle observations made by NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to the location of the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES). Because CRRES followed a geosynchronous transfer orbit which precessed in local time this allows us to examine the model accuracy between LEO and GEO orbits across a range of local times. We examine the accuracy of multiple magnetic field models using a variety of statistics and examine their utility for operational purposes.

Anthropology and decision making about chronic technological disasters: Mixed waste remediation on the Oak Ridge Reservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfe, A.K.; Schweitzer, M.

This paper discusses two related case studies of decision making about the remediation of mixed (hazardous and radioactive) wastes on the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The three goals of the paper are to (1) place current decision-making efforts in the varied and evolving social, political, regulatory, economic, and technological contexts in which they occur; (2) present definitions and attributes of {open_quotes}successful{close_quotes} environmental decision making from the perspectives of key constituency groups that participate in decision making; and (3) discuss the role of anthropology in addressing environmental decision making. Environmental decision making about remediation is extraordinarily complex, involving human healthmore » and ecological risks; uncertainties about risks, technological ability to clean up, the financial costs of clean up; multiple and sometimes conflicting regulations; social equity and justice considerations; and decreasing budgets. Anthropological theories and methods can contribute to better understanding and, potentially, to better decision making.« less

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap.

PubMed

Géli, L; Henry, P; Grall, C; Tary, J-B; Lomax, A; Batsi, E; Riboulot, V; Cros, E; Gürbüz, C; Işık, S E; Sengör, A M C; Le Pichon, X; Ruffine, L; Dupré, S; Thomas, Y; Kalafat, D; Bayrakci, G; Coutellier, Q; Regnier, T; Westbrook, G; Saritas, H; Çifçi, G; Çağatay, M N; Özeren, M S; Görür, N; Tryon, M; Bohnhoff, M; Gasperini, L; Klingelhoefer, F; Scalabrin, C; Augustin, J-M; Embriaco, D; Marinaro, G; Frugoni, F; Monna, S; Etiope, G; Favali, P; Bécel, A

2018-05-01

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the "Istanbul seismic gap") has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25 th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5-5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain.

Multiplicative Thinking: Much More than Knowing Multiplication Facts and Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurst, Chris; Hurrell, Derek

2016-01-01

Multiplicative thinking is accepted as a "big idea" of mathematics that underpins important mathematical concepts such as fraction understanding, proportional reasoning, and algebraic thinking. It is characterised by understandings such as the multiplicative relationship between places in the number system, basic and extended number…

When goals collide: monitoring the goals of multiple characters.

PubMed

Magliano, Joseph P; Taylor, Holly A; Kim, Hyun-Jeong Joyce

2005-12-01

Most story plots contain multiple characters who are independent, interact, and often have conflicting goals. One would expect that narrative understanding would require monitoring of the goals, concerns, and situations of multiple agents. There is considerable evidence that understanders monitor the primary protagonist's goal plans (e.g., Suh & Trabasso, 1993). However, there is relatively little research on the extent to which understanders monitor the goals of multiple agents. We investigated the impact of characters' roles and prominence on the extent to which understanders monitor the goal plans of multiple characters in a feature length film. In Experiment 1, participants made situation change judgments, and in Experiment 2, they verbally described scenes. Both types of judgments indicated that viewers monitor the goals and plans of multiple agents but do so to a greater extent for characters more prominent to the plotline.

The Role and Quality of Software Safety in the NASA Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layman, Lucas; Basili, Victor R.; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

2010-01-01

In this study, we examine software safety risk in the early design phase of the NASA Constellation spaceflight program. Obtaining an accurate, program-wide picture of software safety risk is difficult across multiple, independently-developing systems. We leverage one source of safety information, hazard analysis, to provide NASA quality assurance managers with information regarding the ongoing state of software safety across the program. The goal of this research is two-fold: 1) to quantify the relative importance of software with respect to system safety; and 2) to quantify the level of risk presented by software in the hazard analysis. We examined 154 hazard reports created during the preliminary design phase of three major flight hardware systems within the Constellation program. To quantify the importance of software, we collected metrics based on the number of software-related causes and controls of hazardous conditions. To quantify the level of risk presented by software, we created a metric scheme to measure the specificity of these software causes. We found that from 49-70% of hazardous conditions in the three systems could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. Furthermore, 10-12% of all controls were software-based. There is potential for inaccuracy in these counts, however, as software causes are not consistently scoped, and the presence of software in a cause or control is not always clear. The application of our software specificity metrics also identified risks in the hazard reporting process. In particular, we found a number of traceability risks in the hazard reports may impede verification of software and system safety.

Development of a risk-ranking framework to evaluate potential high-threat microorganisms, toxins, and chemicals in food.

PubMed

Newsome, R; Tran, N; Paoli, G M; Jaykus, L A; Tompkin, B; Miliotis, M; Ruthman, T; Hartnett, E; Busta, F F; Petersen, B; Shank, F; McEntire, J; Hotchkiss, J; Wagner, M; Schaffner, D W

2009-03-01

Through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the Institute of Food Technologists developed a risk-ranking framework prototype to enable comparison of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods and to assist policy makers, risk managers, risk analysts, and others in determining the relative public health impact of specific hazard-food combinations. The prototype is a bottom-up system based on assumptions that incorporate expert opinion/insight with a number of exposure and hazard-related risk criteria variables, which are propagated forward with food intake data to produce risk-ranking determinations. The prototype produces a semi-quantitative comparative assessment of food safety hazards and the impacts of hazard control measures. For a specific hazard-food combination the prototype can produce a single metric: a final risk value expressed as annual pseudo-disability adjusted life years (pDALY). The pDALY is a harmonization of the very different dose-response relationships observed for chemicals and microbes. The prototype was developed on 2 platforms, a web-based user interface and an Analytica(R) model (Lumina Decision Systems, Los Gatos, Calif., U.S.A.). Comprising visual basic language, the web-based platform facilitates data input and allows use concurrently from multiple locations. The Analytica model facilitates visualization of the logic flow, interrelationship of input and output variables, and calculations/algorithms comprising the prototype. A variety of sortable risk-ranking reports and summary information can be generated for hazard-food pairs, showing hazard and dose-response assumptions and data, per capita consumption by population group, and annual p-DALY.

Exploration of resilience assessments for natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Jacomo, Anna; Han, Dawei; Champneys, Alan

2017-04-01

The occurrence of extreme events due to natural hazards is difficult to predict. Extreme events are stochastic in nature, there is a lack of long term data on their occurrence, and there are still gaps in our understanding of their physical processes. This difficulty in prediction will be exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Yet traditional risk assessments measure risk as the probability of occurrence of a hazard, multiplied by the consequences of the hazard occurring, which ignores the recovery process. In light of the increasing concerns on disaster risks and the related system recovery, resilience assessments are being used as an approach which complements and builds on traditional risk assessments and management. In mechanical terms, resilience refers to the amount of energy per unit volume that a material can absorb while maintaining its ability to return to its original shape. Resilience was first applied in the fields of psychology and ecology, and more recently has been used in areas such as social sciences, economics, and engineering. A common metaphor for understanding resilience is the stability landscape. The landscape consists of a surface of interconnected basins, where each basin represents different states of a system, which is a point on the stability landscape. The resilience of the system is its capacity and tendency to remain within a particular basin. This depends on the topology of the landscape, on the system's current position, and on its reaction to different shocks and stresses. In practical terms, resilience assessments have been conducted for various purposes in different sectors. These assessments vary in their required inputs, the methodologies applied, and the output they produce. Some measures used for resilience assessments are hazard independent. These focus on the intrinsic capabilities of a system, for example the insurance coverage of a community, or the buffer capacity of a water storage reservoir. Other measures of resilience are hazard dependent, and require hazard information. In those cases, the type of hazard information required varies from long term information such as the general probability of occurrence of a particular hazard, to short term information such as the observed damage following a specific earthquake occurrence. The required information also varies from national scale, such as census data, to local scale, such as stakeholder perceptions of a threat. This is shown through examples of resilience assessments, along with a discussion of their ability to inform decision making.

Identifying and designing chemicals with minimal acute aquatic toxicity

PubMed Central

Kostal, Jakub; Voutchkova-Kostal, Adelina; Anastas, Paul T.; Zimmerman, Julie Beth

2015-01-01

Industrial ecology has revolutionized our understanding of material stocks and flows in our economy and society. For this important discipline to have even deeper impact, we must understand the inherent nature of these materials in terms of human health and the environment. This paper focuses on methods to design synthetic chemicals to reduce their intrinsic ability to cause adverse consequence to the biosphere. Advances in the fields of computational chemistry and molecular toxicology in recent decades allow the development of predictive models that inform the design of molecules with reduced potential to be toxic to humans or the environment. The approach presented herein builds on the important work in quantitative structure–activity relationships by linking toxicological and chemical mechanistic insights to the identification of critical physical–chemical properties needed to be modified. This in silico approach yields design guidelines using boundary values for physiochemical properties. Acute aquatic toxicity serves as a model endpoint in this study. Defining value ranges for properties related to bioavailability and reactivity eliminates 99% of the chemicals in the highest concern for acute aquatic toxicity category. This approach and its future implementations are expected to yield very powerful tools for life cycle assessment practitioners and molecular designers that allow rapid assessment of multiple environmental and human health endpoints and inform modifications to minimize hazard. PMID:24639521

Identifying and designing chemicals with minimal acute aquatic toxicity.

PubMed

Kostal, Jakub; Voutchkova-Kostal, Adelina; Anastas, Paul T; Zimmerman, Julie Beth

2015-05-19

Industrial ecology has revolutionized our understanding of material stocks and flows in our economy and society. For this important discipline to have even deeper impact, we must understand the inherent nature of these materials in terms of human health and the environment. This paper focuses on methods to design synthetic chemicals to reduce their intrinsic ability to cause adverse consequence to the biosphere. Advances in the fields of computational chemistry and molecular toxicology in recent decades allow the development of predictive models that inform the design of molecules with reduced potential to be toxic to humans or the environment. The approach presented herein builds on the important work in quantitative structure-activity relationships by linking toxicological and chemical mechanistic insights to the identification of critical physical-chemical properties needed to be modified. This in silico approach yields design guidelines using boundary values for physiochemical properties. Acute aquatic toxicity serves as a model endpoint in this study. Defining value ranges for properties related to bioavailability and reactivity eliminates 99% of the chemicals in the highest concern for acute aquatic toxicity category. This approach and its future implementations are expected to yield very powerful tools for life cycle assessment practitioners and molecular designers that allow rapid assessment of multiple environmental and human health endpoints and inform modifications to minimize hazard.

Landslides Zonation Hazard: relation between geological structures and landslides occurrence in hilly tropical regions of Brazil.

PubMed

Cerri, Rodrigo I; Reis, Fábio A G V; Gramani, Marcelo F; Giordano, Lucilia C; Zaine, José Eduardo

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new approach of landslides zonation hazard studies, based on an integrated study of structural data along with geomorphological and external factors, in a hilly regions of Brazil, covered by a tropical humid rain-forest, called Serra do Mar. The Serra do Mar consists of a hilly region along the east coast of Brazil, with high slopes and many geological structures in a gneiss - migmatitic terrain. In contrast to traditional approaches, this method proposes that structural data (foliation, fractures and bedding planes) and its relation with the slope geometry, is important to be consider in the landslide zonation hazard, along with declivity, relative relief, soil and rock properties, land use and vegetation cover and hydrogeological and climate factors. Results show that slopes with high hazard have the same dip direction of geological structures. Landslide zonation hazard using structural data contributes to a better understanding of how these structures, preserved in tropical residual soils, influence on slope stability and generates landslides.

Linking Ecosystem Services and Human Health: The Eco-Health Relationship Browser#

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems and the services they provide have been linked in the literature to multiple human health outcomes. Demonstrated and proposed mechanisms focus on hazard buffering and health-promotional aspects of ecosystems. Services such as air and water filtration, heat mitigation...

OVERVIEW OF LEACHING CHEMISTRY AND TESTING RESEARCH IN ORD/EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Various anthropogenic activities generate hazardous solid wastes that are affluent in heavy metals and organics, which can cause significant damage to the environment and human health. Heavy metals can exist in multiple oxidation states, and can undergo oxidation or reduction whe...

Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

2016-05-01

Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p < 0.0001), nonrecipient of national aftercare service (OR = 1.62, p < 0.0001), and current contact with mental health services (OR = 3.17, p < 0.0001). Most multiple attempters who survived from hanging (68.1%) and gas poisoning (61.9%) chose the same method in the following fatal episode. Predictors of suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The multi-sensory approach as a geoeducational strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musacchio, Gemma; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

2014-05-01

Geoscience knowledge has a strong impact in modern society as it relates to natural hazards, sustainability and environmental issues. The general public has a demanding attitude towards the understanding of crucial geo-scientific topics that is only partly satisfied by science communication strategies and/or by outreach or school programs. A proper knowledge of the phenomena might help trigger crucial inquiries when approaching mitigation of geo-hazards and geo-resources, while providing the right tool for the understanding of news and ideas floating from the web or other media, and, in other words, help communication to be more efficient. Nonetheless available educational resources seem to be inadequate in meeting the goal, while research institutions are facing the challenge to experience new communication strategies and non-conventional way of learning capable to allow the understanding of crucial scientific contents. We suggest the use of multi-sensory approach as a successful non-conventional way of learning for children and as a different perspective of learning for older students and adults. Sense organs stimulation are perceived and processed to build the knowledge of the surrounding, including all sorts of hazards. Powerfully relying in the sense of sight, Humans have somehow lost most of their ability for a deep perception of the environment enriched by all the other senses. Since hazards involve emotions we argue that new ways to approach the learning might go exactly through emotions that one might stress with a tactile experience, a hearing or smell stimulation. To test and support our idea we are building a package of learning activities and exhibits based on a multi-sensory experience where the sight is not allowed.

Community Resilience Education: Lessons Learned from an Emerging Community of Practice - NOAA's Environmental Literacy Grantees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoedinger, S. E.; McDougall, C.

2017-12-01

NOAA supports community resilience to extreme weather events, climate change and other environmental hazards by preparing communities through Weather Ready Nation and through programs addressing coastal community needs. These programs primarily target adult decisions makers in a professional capacity (emergency managers, city planners, et al.), leaving non-professional audiences without opportunities to understand and develop the skills to prepare for the threats and vulnerabilities that their communities face. As a result, resilience became the focus of NOAA's Environmental Literacy Grants in 2015. The goal of these investments is to strengthen the public's and/or K-12 students' environmental literacy to enable informed decision-making necessary for community resilience to extreme weather events and other environmental hazards. Funded projects build an understanding of Earth systems and the threats and vulnerabilities that are associated with a community's location, are aligned with existing adaptation/resilience plans, and connect audiences to relevant tools and resources to prepare for and respond to these hazards. These first few years of investment will create new models for how education can improve community resilience. Although these projects incorporate a variety of approaches, a few common themes stand out: empowering youth and adults to increase their understanding of locally relevant natural hazards and stresses; giving youth a voice in resilience planning; and student-led vulnerability assessments of their schools and communities. In this session we will report on the first convening of the principal investigators of our 13 funded projects, which represents the beginning of a new community of practice focused on resilience education. We will specifically share lessons learned about: engaging youth and adults about climate change and resiliency; working with local resilience/adaptation planners; and case studies on the use of NOAA's Digital Coast and the US Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Integrated Optoelectronics for Parallel Microbioanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stirbl, Robert; Moynihan, Philip; Bearman, Gregory; Lane, Arthur

2003-01-01

Miniature, relatively inexpensive microbioanalytical systems ("laboratory-on-achip" devices) have been proposed for the detection of hazardous microbes and toxic chemicals. Each system of this type would include optoelectronic sensors and sensor-output-processing circuitry that would simultaneously look for the optical change, fluorescence, delayed fluorescence, or phosphorescence signatures from multiple redundant sites that have interacted with the test biomolecules in order to detect which one(s) was present in a given situation. These systems could be used in a variety of settings that could include doctors offices, hospitals, hazardous-material laboratories, biological-research laboratories, military operations, and chemical-processing plants.

QSAR modeling of cumulative environmental end-points for the prioritization of hazardous chemicals.

PubMed

Gramatica, Paola; Papa, Ester; Sangion, Alessandro

2018-01-24

The hazard of chemicals in the environment is inherently related to the molecular structure and derives simultaneously from various chemical properties/activities/reactivities. Models based on Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSARs) are useful to screen, rank and prioritize chemicals that may have an adverse impact on humans and the environment. This paper reviews a selection of QSAR models (based on theoretical molecular descriptors) developed for cumulative multivariate endpoints, which were derived by mathematical combination of multiple effects and properties. The cumulative end-points provide an integrated holistic point of view to address environmentally relevant properties of chemicals.

Safety training priorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, N. A.; Ruck, H. W.

1984-04-01

The Air Force is interested in identifying potentially hazardous tasks and prevention of accidents. This effort proposes four methods for determining safety training priorities for job tasks in three enlisted specialties. These methods can be used to design training aimed at avoiding loss of people, time, materials, and money associated with on-the-job accidents. Job tasks performed by airmen were measured using task and job factor ratings. Combining accident reports and job inventories, subject-matter experts identified tasks associated with accidents over a 3-year period. Applying correlational, multiple regression, and cost-benefit analysis, four methods were developed for ordering hazardous tasks to determine safety training priorities.

Contribution of vertical land motions to coastal sea level variations: a global synthesis of multisatellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeffer, Julia; Allemand, Pascal

2016-04-01

Coastal sea level variations result from a complex mix of climatic, oceanic and geodynamical processes driven by natural and anthropogenic constraints. Combining data from multiple sources is one solution to identify particular processes and progress towards a better understanding of the sea level variations and the assessment of their impacts at coast. Here, we present a global database merging multisatellite altimetry with tide gauges and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Vertical land motions and sea level variations are estimated simultaneously for a network of 886 ground stations with median errors lower than 1 mm/yr. The contribution of vertical land motions to relative sea level variations is explored to better understand the natural hazards associated with sea level rise in coastal areas. Worldwide, vertical land motions dominate 30 % of observed coastal trends. The role of the crust is highly heterogeneous: it can amplify, restrict or counter the effects of climate-induced sea level change. A set of 182 potential vulnerable localities are identified by large coastal subsidence which increases by several times the effects of sea level rise. Though regional behaviours exist, principally caused by GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment), the local variability in vertical land motion prevails. An accurate determination of the vertical motions observed at the coast is fundamental to understand the local processes which contribute to sea level rise, to appraise its impacts on coastal populations and make future predictions.

Treatment effectiveness of alemtuzumab compared with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a cohort study.

PubMed

Kalincik, Tomas; Brown, J William L; Robertson, Neil; Willis, Mark; Scolding, Neil; Rice, Claire M; Wilkins, Alastair; Pearson, Owen; Ziemssen, Tjalf; Hutchinson, Michael; McGuigan, Christopher; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Spelman, Tim; Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva; Trojano, Maria; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Prat, Alexandre; Girard, Marc; Duquette, Pierre; Grammond, Pierre; Alroughani, Raed; Pucci, Eugenio; Sola, Patrizia; Hupperts, Raymond; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Terzi, Murat; Van Pesch, Vincent; Rozsa, Csilla; Grand'Maison, François; Boz, Cavit; Granella, Franco; Slee, Mark; Spitaleri, Daniele; Olascoaga, Javier; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Verheul, Freek; Vucic, Steve; McCombe, Pamela; Hodgkinson, Suzanne; Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis; Ampapa, Radek; Simo, Magdolna; Csepany, Tunde; Ramo, Cristina; Cristiano, Edgardo; Barnett, Michael; Butzkueven, Helmut; Coles, Alasdair

2017-04-01

Alemtuzumab, an anti-CD52 antibody, is proven to be more efficacious than interferon beta-1a in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, but its efficacy relative to more potent immunotherapies is unknown. We compared the effectiveness of alemtuzumab with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated for up to 5 years. In this international cohort study, we used data from propensity-matched patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from the MSBase and six other cohorts. Longitudinal clinical data were obtained from 71 MSBase centres in 21 countries and from six non-MSBase centres in the UK and Germany between Nov 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. Key inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of definite relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, exposure to one of the study therapies (alemtuzumab, interferon beta, fingolimod, or natalizumab), age 65 years or younger, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6·5 or lower, and no more than 10 years since the first multiple sclerosis symptom. The primary endpoint was annualised relapse rate. The secondary endpoints were cumulative hazards of relapses, disability accumulation, and disability improvement events. We compared relapse rates with negative binomial models, and estimated cumulative hazards with conditional proportional hazards models. Patients were treated between Aug 1, 1994, and June 30, 2016. The cohorts consisted of 189 patients given alemtuzumab, 2155 patients given interferon beta, 828 patients given fingolimod, and 1160 patients given natalizumab. Alemtuzumab was associated with a lower annualised relapse rate than interferon beta (0·19 [95% CI 0·14-0·23] vs 0·53 [0·46-0·61], p<0·0001) and fingolimod (0·15 [0·10-0·20] vs 0·34 [0·26-0·41], p<0·0001), and was associated with a similar annualised relapse rate as natalizumab (0·20 [0·14-0·26] vs 0·19 [0·15-0·23], p=0·78). For the disability outcomes, alemtuzumab was associated with similar probabilities of disability accumulation as interferon beta (hazard ratio [HR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·36-1·22], p=0·37), fingolimod (1·27 [0·60-2·70], p=0·67), and natalizumab (0·81 [0·47-1·39], p=0·60). Alemtuzumab was associated with similar probabilities of disability improvement as interferon beta (0·98 [0·65-1·49], p=0·93) and fingolimod (0·50 [0·25-1·01], p=0·18), and a lower probability of disability improvement than natalizumab (0·35 [0·20-0·59], p=0·0006). Alemtuzumab and natalizumab seem to have similar effects on annualised relapse rates in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Alemtuzumab seems superior to fingolimod and interferon beta in mitigating relapse activity. Natalizumab seems superior to alemtuzumab in enabling recovery from disability. Both natalizumab and alemtuzumab seem highly effective and viable immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis. Treatment decisions between alemtuzumab and natalizumab should be primarily governed by their safety profiles. National Health and Medical Research Council, and the University of Melbourne. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bi-Objective Modelling for Hazardous Materials Road–Rail Multimodal Routing Problem with Railway Schedule-Based Space–Time Constraints

PubMed Central

Sun, Yan; Lang, Maoxiang; Wang, Danzhu

2016-01-01

The transportation of hazardous materials is always accompanied by considerable risk that will impact public and environment security. As an efficient and reliable transportation organization, a multimodal service should participate in the transportation of hazardous materials. In this study, we focus on transporting hazardous materials through the multimodal service network and explore the hazardous materials multimodal routing problem from the operational level of network planning. To formulate this problem more practicably, minimizing the total generalized costs of transporting the hazardous materials and the social risk along the planned routes are set as the optimization objectives. Meanwhile, the following formulation characteristics will be comprehensively modelled: (1) specific customer demands; (2) multiple hazardous material flows; (3) capacitated schedule-based rail service and uncapacitated time-flexible road service; and (4) environmental risk constraint. A bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is first built to formulate the routing problem that combines the formulation characteristics above. Then linear reformations are developed to linearize and improve the initial model so that it can be effectively solved by exact solution algorithms on standard mathematical programming software. By utilizing the normalized weighted sum method, we can generate the Pareto solutions to the bi-objective optimization problem for a specific case. Finally, a large-scale empirical case study from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region in China is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methods in dealing with the practical problem. Various scenarios are also discussed in the case study. PMID:27483294

Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

2017-12-01

Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

Checklist for Design of Vertical Barrier Walls for Hazardous Waste Sites

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-06-30

Sites. ETL 1110-2-282 ETL 1110-2-282, Rock Mass Classification Data Requirements for Rippability . EPA/530/R-93/001 EPA/530/R-93/001, RCRA Ground-Water...discontinuities, rock hardness, and rippability . (3) Hydrology. In addition to understanding the geology, it is imperative to have an understanding of the

A difference in systolic blood pressure between arms is a novel predictor of the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Okada, Hiroshi; Fukui, Michiaki; Tanaka, Muhei; Matsumoto, Shinobu; Iwase, Hiroya; Kobayashi, Kanae; Asano, Mai; Yamazaki, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Goji; Nakamura, Naoto

2013-10-01

Recent studies have suggested that a difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) between arms is associated with both vascular disease and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between a difference in SBP between arms and change in urinary albumin excretion or development of albuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes. We measured SBP in 408 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes, and calculated a difference in SBP between arms. We performed follow-up study to assess change in urinary albumin excretion or development of albuminuria, mean interval of which was 4.6 ± 1.7 years. We then evaluated the relationship of a difference in SBP between arms to diabetic nephropathy using multiple regression analysis and multiple Cox regression model. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that a difference in SBP between arms was independently associated with change in urinary albumin excretion (β = 0.1869, P = 0.0010). Adjusted Cox regression analyses demonstrated that a difference in SBP between arms was associated with an increased hazard of development of albuminuria; hazard ratio was 1.215 (95% confidence interval 1.077-1.376). Moreover, the risk of development of albuminuria was increased in patients with a difference in SBP of equal to or more than 10 mmHg between arms; hazard ratio was 4.168 (95% confidence interval 1.478-11.70). A difference in SBP between arms could be a novel predictor of the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of risk assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favereau, Marcel; Robledo, Luis F.; Bull, Maria T.

2018-05-01

During the history of mankind, natural disasters have had severe repercussions on the different ecosystems, with volcanic eruptions being a clear example of this. This review is responsible for gathering the most important volatile hazards assessment research of the last decade with the objective of knowing the state of the art in relation to the studies of people's risk perception and acceptance in communities threatened by the danger of volcanic eruptions. In addition, this study includes the analysis of several cases across different countries. The results that this research offers serve as a frame of reference to determine and understand how resilient a community affected by the volatile hazards can be, since they are able to identify the main incident factors of risk that affect the communities to different degrees according to the context at the time of making the risk judgment. On the other hand, through this review, it is proposed as a future research topic to understand the levels of risk acceptance of individuals, due to the fact that the studies related to this subject are scarce.

Planning for the Human Dimensions of Oil Spills and Spill Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webler, Thomas; Lord, Fabienne

2010-04-01

Oil spill contingency planners need an improved approach to understanding and planning for the human dimensions of oil spills. Drawing on existing literature in social impact assessment, natural hazards, human ecology, adaptive management, global change and sustainability, we develop an integrative approach to understanding and portraying the human dimensions impacts of stressors associated with oil spill events. Our approach is based on three fundamental conclusions that are drawn from this literature review. First, it is productive to acknowledge that, while stressors can produce human impacts directly, they mainly affect intermediary processes and changes to these processes produce human impacts. Second, causal chain modeling taken from hazard management literature provides a means to document how oil spill stressors change processes and produce human impacts. Third, concepts from the global change literature on vulnerability enrich causal models in ways that make more obvious how management interventions lessen hazards and mitigate associated harm. Using examples from recent spill events, we illustrate how these conclusions can be used to diagrammatically portray the human dimensions of oil spills.

Scouts, forests, and ticks: Impact of landscapes on human-tick contacts.

PubMed

De Keukeleire, Mathilde; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Somassè, Elysée; Kabamba, Benoît; Luyasu, Victor; Robert, Annie

2015-07-01

Just as with forest workers or people practicing outdoor recreational activities, scouts are at high risk for tick bites and tick-borne infections. The risk of a tick bite is shaped not only by environmental and climatic factors but also by land management. The aim of this study was to assess which environmental conditions favour scout-tick contacts, and thus to better understand how these factors and their interactions influence the two components of risk: hazard (related to vector and host ecology) and exposure of humans to disease vectors. A survey was conducted in the summer of 2009 on the incidence of tick bites in scout camps taking place in southern Belgium. Joint effects of landscape composition and configuration, weather, climate, forest and wildlife management were examined using a multiple gamma regression with a log link. The landscape was characterized by buffers of varying sizes around the camps using a detailed land use map, and accounting for climate and weather variables. Landscape composition and configuration had a significant influence on scout-tick contacts: the risk was high when the camp was surrounded by a low proportion of arable land and situated in a complex and fragmented landscape. The distance to the nearest forest patch, the composition of the forest ecotone as well as weather and climatic factors were all significantly associated with scout-tick contacts. Both hazard- and exposure-related variables significantly contributed to the frequency of scout-tick contact. Our results show that environmental conditions favour scout-tick contacts. For example, we emphasize the impact of accessibility of environments suitable for ticks on the risk of contact. We also highlight the significant effect of both hazard and exposure. Our results are consistent with current knowledge, but further investigations on the effect of forest management, e.g. through its impact on forest structure, on the tick-host-pathogen system, and on humans exposure, is required. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will feature a live demonstration of how the tool can be applied to evaluate exposure to water-related risks worldwide and drive change on the ground by prioritizing areas for investment to increase resilience to natural hazards.

Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

2011-12-01

The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from the flood hazard model is used to drive a flood loss model that is coupled to a financial model.

Farmers' use of personal protective equipment during handling of plant protection products: Determinants of implementation.

PubMed

Damalas, Christos A; Abdollahzadeh, Gholamhossein

2016-11-15

Understanding factors affecting the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during handling of plant protection products (PPPs) is of major importance for the design of tailored interventions to minimize exposure among farmers. However, data regarding this issue are highly limited. Factors related to the use of PPE during handling of PPPs were explored in a survey of cotton farmers in northern Greece. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with the farmers based on a questionnaire with structured items on the frequency of use of various personal protective devices during handling of PPPs. New evidence on patterns of PPE use and potential exposure of farmers to PPPs is provided. Most farmers (49.3%) showed potentially unsafe behaviour with respect to PPE use. Hat and boots were the most commonly used protective items during PPPs use, but most of the farmers surveyed reported low frequency of use for gloves, goggles, face mask, coveralls, and respirator. Especially the respirator was reported to be the least used PPE item amongst farmers. Farmers who perceived PPPs as harmful substances or those who had an episode of intoxication in the past reported more frequent use of several PPE items. Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that the variable episode of intoxication in the past exerted the strongest positive influence on PPE use, followed by the perception of PPPs being hazardous substances, upper secondary education, previous training on PPPs (i.e., spraying equipment, application parameters, risks to human health and environment, safety issues) and farm size under cultivation. Old age exerted a significant negative influence on PPE use, namely, elderly farmers tended not to use PPE. Strategies to maximize the protection of applicators of PPPs from hazardous exposures still require innovation to achieve increased effectiveness. Emphasis on lifelong training and education of farmers about hazards and risks of PPPs is crucial for changing wrong behaviours in handling of PPPs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

The Mediterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV) Project: an overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puglisi, Giuseppe

2013-04-01

In response to the EC call ENV.2012.6.4-2 (Long-term monitoring experiments in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept - FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage) a wide community of volcanological institutions proposed the project Mediterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV), which is in the negotiation phase at the time of writing. The Consortium is composed by 18 European University and research institutes, four Small or Medium Enterprises (SME) and two non-European University and research institutes. MED-SUV will improve the consortium capacity of assessment of volcanic hazards in Supersites of Southern Italy by optimising and integrating existing and new observation/monitoring systems, by a breakthrough in understanding of volcanic processes and by increasing the effectiveness of the coordination between the scientific and end-user communities. More than 3 million of people are exposed to potential volcanic hazards in a large region in the Mediterranean Sea, where two among the largest European volcanic areas are located: Mt. Etna and Campi Flegrei/Vesuvius. This project will fully exploit the unique detailed long-term in-situ monitoring data sets available for these volcanoes and integrate with Earth Observation (EO) data, setting the basic tools for a significant step ahead in the discrimination of pre-, syn- and post-eruptive phases. The wide range of styles and intensities of volcanic phenomena observed on these volcanoes, which can be assumed as archetypes of 'closed conduit ' and 'open conduit' volcano, together with the long-term multidisciplinary data sets give an exceptional opportunity to improve the understanding of a very wide spectrum of geo-hazards, as well as implementing and testing a large variety of innovative models of ground deformation and motion. Important impacts on the European industrial sector are expected, arising from a partnership integrating the scientific community and SMEs to implement together new observation/monitoring sensors/systems. Specific experiments and studies will be carried out to improve our understanding of the volcanic internal structure and dynamics, as well as to recognise signals related to impending unrest or eruption. Hazard quantitative assessment will benefit by the outcomes of these studies and by their integration into the cutting edge monitoring approaches thus leading to a step-change in hazard awareness and preparedness and leveraging the close relationship between scientists, SMEs, and end-users.

Multiple roles and all-cause mortality: the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tamakoshi, Akiko; Ikeda, Ai; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Tamakoshi, Koji; Iso, Hisoyasu

2013-02-01

Two contrasting perspectives on the effects of multiple roles; the 'role overload hypothesis' and the 'role enhancement model', have been proposed to predict variations in health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of multiple roles on all-cause mortality in Japan where gender roles are currently changing. A total of 76,758 individuals from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study were followed for an average of 15.7 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated from proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality according to multiple roles (spouse, parent and worker, and combinations of these roles). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the risks of all-cause mortality were elevated among men and women without a role. The number of roles was also associated with all-cause mortality risk, showing the highest risk values among those with no roles compared with those with triple roles (HR: 1.66 in men and 1.78 in women). The impact of the lack of a role was generally greater in men than in women and also in the middle-aged than in the elderly. A beneficial effect of multiple roles was suggested among Japanese. The fewer roles they had, the higher all-cause mortality risks were observed. The risk values of those with fewer roles were generally higher in men than in women and also in the middle-aged than in the elderly, partially explained by greater role overload in middle-aged women than other groups in Japan.

29 CFR 1917.27 - Personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... experience, and who understand the signs, notices and operating instructions and are familiar with the signal...) elements of accident prevention; (iii) attitudes, leadership and motivation; (iv) hazards of longshoring...

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

2015-04-01

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id; Cipta, Athanasius; Australian National University, Canberra

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and backmore » thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.« less

Federal Funding for Health Security in FY2017.

PubMed

Boddie, Crystal; Watson, Matthew; Sell, Tara Kirk

2016-01-01

This latest article in the Federal Funding for Health Security series assesses FY2017 US government funding in 5 domains critical to strengthening health security: biosecurity, radiological and nuclear security, chemical security, pandemic influenza and emerging infectious disease, and multiple-hazard and general preparedness.

Linking Ecosystem Services and Human Health: The Eco-Health Relationship Browser

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems provide multiple services associated with the provision of nature-based goods and services. Many of these ecosystem services have been linked to a range of positive health outcomes through buffering of pollutants, mitigation of natural hazards, and promotion of healthy...

Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Beroza, Gregory C.; Hoover, Susan M.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) characterizes ground-motion hazard from earthquakes. Typically, the time horizon of a PSHA forecast is long, but in response to induced seismicity related to hydrocarbon development, the USGS developed one-year PSHA models. In this paper, we present a display of the variability in USGS hazard curves due to epistemic uncertainty in its informed submodel using a simple bootstrapping approach. We find that variability is highest in low-seismicity areas. On the other hand, areas of high seismic hazard, such as the New Madrid seismic zone or Oklahoma, exhibit relatively lower variability simply because of more available data and a better understanding of the seismicity. Comparing areas of high hazard, New Madrid, which has a history of large naturally occurring earthquakes, has lower forecast variability than Oklahoma, where the hazard is driven mainly by suspected induced earthquakes since 2009. Overall, the mean hazard obtained from bootstrapping is close to the published model, and variability increased in the 2017 one-year model relative to the 2016 model. Comparing the relative variations caused by individual logic-tree branches, we find that the highest hazard variation (as measured by the 95% confidence interval of bootstrapping samples) in the final model is associated with different ground-motion models and maximum magnitudes used in the logic tree, while the variability due to the smoothing distance is minimal. It should be pointed out that this study is not looking at the uncertainty in the hazard in general, but only as it is represented in the USGS one-year models.

Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

PubMed Central

Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

1983-01-01

Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

Hazardous drinking and military community functioning: identifying mediating risk factors.

PubMed

Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Slep, Amy M Smith

2011-08-01

Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may be most effective in targeting community functioning (e.g., support from formal agencies, community cohesion) that impacts hazardous drinking via other proximal risk factors. The goal of the current study is to inform community-wide prevention efforts by testing a model of community functioning and mediating risk factors of hazardous drinking among active duty U.S. Air Force personnel. A large, representative survey sample of U.S. Air Force active duty members (N = 52,780) was collected at 82 bases worldwide. Hazardous drinking was assessed with the widely used Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, de la Fuente, & Grant, 1993). A variety of individual, family, and community measures were also assessed. Structural equation modeling was used to test a hypothesized model of community functioning, mediating risk factors and hazardous drinking. Depressive symptoms, perceived financial stress, and satisfaction with the U.S. Air Force were identified as significant mediators of the link between community functioning and hazardous drinking for men and women. Relationship satisfaction was also identified as a mediator for men. These results provide a framework for further community prevention research and suggest that prevention efforts geared at increasing aspects of community functioning (e.g., the U.S. Air Force Community Capacity model) may indirectly lead to reductions in hazardous drinking through other proximal risk factors.

The influence of demographics and working conditions on self-reported injuries among Latino day laborers

PubMed Central

Fernández-Esquer, Maria Eugenia; Fernández-Espada, Natalie; Atkinson, John A; Montano, Cecilia F

2015-01-01

Background: The majority of day laborers in the USA are Latinos. They are engaged in high-risk occupations and suffer high occupational injury rates. Objectives: To describe on-the-job injuries reported by Latino day laborers, explore the extent that demographic and occupational factors predict injuries, and whether summative measures for total job types, job conditions, and personal protective equipment (PPE) predict injuries. Methods: A community survey was conducted with 327 participants at 15 corners in Houston, Texas. Hierarchical and multiple logistic regressions explored predictors of occupational injury odds in the last year. Results: Thirty-four percent of respondents reported an occupational injury in the previous year. Education, exposure to loud noises, cold temperatures, vibrating machinery, use of hard hats, total number of job conditions, and total PPE significantly predicted injury odds. Conclusion: Risk for injury among day laborers is not only the product of a specific hazard, but also the result of their exposure to multiple occupational hazards. PMID:25291983

Evidence that bisphenol A (BPA) can be accurately measured without contamination in human serum and urine, and that BPA causes numerous hazards from multiple routes of exposure

PubMed Central

vom Saal, Frederick S.; Welshons, Wade V.

2016-01-01

There is extensive evidence that bisphenol A (BPA) is related to a wide range of adverse health effects based on both human and experimental animal studies. However, a number of regulatory agencies have ignored all hazard findings. Reports of high levels of unconjugated (bioactive) serum BPA in dozens of human biomonitoring studies have also been rejected based on the prediction that the findings are due to assay contamination and that virtually all ingested BPA is rapidly converted to inactive metabolites. NIH and industry-sponsored round robin studies have demonstrated that serum BPA can be accurately assayed without contamination, while the FDA lab has acknowledged uncontrolled assay contamination. In reviewing the published BPA biomonitoring data, we find that assay contamination is, in fact, well controlled in most labs, and cannot be used as the basis for discounting evidence that significant and virtually continuous exposure to BPA must be occurring from multiple sources. PMID:25304273

Unknown risk: co-exposure to lead and other heavy metals among children living in small-scale mining communities in Zamfara State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Bartrem, Casey; Tirima, Simba; von Lindern, Ian; von Braun, Margrit; Worrell, Mary Claire; Mohammad Anka, Shehu; Abdullahi, Aishat; Moller, Gregory

2014-08-01

The lead poisoning crisis in Zamfara State, Northern Nigeria has been called the worst such case in modern history and it presents unique challenges for risk assessment and management of co-exposure to multiple heavy metals. More than 400 children have died in Zamfara as a result of ongoing lead intoxication since early in 2010. A review of the common toxic endpoints of the major heavy metals advances analysis of co-exposures and their common pathologies. Environmental contamination in Bagega village, examined by X-ray fluorescence of soils, includes lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic and manganese. Co-exposure risk is explored by scoring common toxic endpoints and hazard indices to calculate a common pathology hazard risk ranking of Pb > As > Hg > Cd > Mn. Zamfara presents an extreme picture of both lead and multiple heavy metal mortality and morbidity, but similar situations have become increasingly prevalent worldwide.