How a Country-Wide Seismological Network Can Improve Understanding of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard -- The Example of Bhutan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetényi, G.; Diehl, T.; Singer, J.; Kissling, E. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

2015-12-01

The Eastern Himalayas are home to a seemingly complex seismo-tectonic evolution. The rate of instrumental seismicity is lower than the average along the orogen, there is no record of large historical events, but both paleoseismology and GPS studies point to potentially large (M>8) earthquakes. Due to the lack of a permanent seismic monitoring system in the area, our current level of understanding is inappropriate to create a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for the region. Existing maps are based on questionable hypotheses and show major inconsistencies when compared to each other. Here we present results on national and regional scales from a 38-station broadband seismological network we operated for almost 2 years in the Kingdom of Bhutan. A thorough, state-of-the-art analysis of local and regional earthquakes builds a comprehensive catalogue that reveals significantly (2-to-3 orders of magnitude) more events than detected from global networks. The seismotectonic analysis reveals new patterns of seismic activity as well as striking differences over relatively short distances within the Himalayas, only partly explained by surface observations such as geology. We compare a priori and a posteriori (BMC) magnitude of completeness maps and show that our network was able to detect all felt events during its operation. Some of these events could be felt at surprisingly large distances. Based on our experiment and experience, we draft the pillars on which a permanent seismological observatory for Bhutan could be constructed. Such a continuous monitoring system of seismic activity could then lead to a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for Bhutan and surrounding regions, and serve as a base to improve building codes and general preparedness.

Multisensor of Remotely Sensed Data for Characterizing Seismotectonic Activities in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu Bakar, Rabieahtul; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Anuar Jamaludin, Tajul; Tongkul, Felix; Mohamad, Zakaria; Ramli, Zamri; Abd Manap, Mohamad; Rahman, Muhammad Zulkarnain Abdul

2015-04-01

Seismically induced events pose serious hazards yet are difficult to predict. Despite remarkable efforts of mapping, monitoring and modelling of such great events at regional or local scales, the understanding of the processes in the Earth's dynamic system remains elusive. Although Malaysia is in a relatively low seismic hazard zone, the current trend and pattern of seismotectonic activities triggered a series of fundamental study to better understand the relationship between the earthquakes, recent tectonics and seismically active fault zones. Several conventional mapping techniques have been intensively used but shown some limitations. Remote sensing is the preferable mean to quantify the seismic activity accurately in a larger area within a short period. Still, only few of such studies have been carried out in this subduction region. Characterization of seismotectonic activities from space in a tropical environment is very challenging given the complexity of its physiographic, climatic, geologic conditions and anthropogenic activities. There are many factors controlling the success rate of the implementation mainly due to the lack of historical earthquakes, geomorphological evidence, and proper identification of regional tectonic patterns. In this study, we aim at providing better insight to extract and characterize seismotectonic activities by integrating passive and active remotely-sensed data, geodetic data, historical records, GIS-based data analysis and in-situ measurements as well quantify them based on field investigation and expert knowledge. It is crucial to perform spatiotemporal analysis of its activities in the most seismically induced region in North-Western Sabah. A comprehensive geodatabase of seismotectonic events are developed and allowed us to analyse the spatiotemporal activities. A novelty of object-based image method for extracting tropical seismically active faults and related seismotectonic features are introduced and evaluated. We aim to develop the exchangeable and transferable rule-set with optimal parameterization for such aforementioned tasks. A geomorphometric-based remotely sensed approach is used to understand the tectonic geomorphology in processes affecting the environment at different spatial scales. As a result of this study, questions related to cascading natural disasters, e.g. landslides can be quantitatively answered. Development and applications of seismically induced landslide hazard and risk zonation at different scales are conceptually presented and critically discussed. So far, quantification evaluation of uncertainties associated to spatial seismic hazard and risks prediction remains very challenging to understand and it is an interest of on-going research. In the near-future, it is crucial to address the changes of climate and land-use-land-cover in relation to temporal and spatial pattern of seismically induced landslides. It is also important to assess, model and incorporate the changes due to natural disasters into a sustainable risk management. As a conclusion, the characteristics, development and function of tectonic movement, as one of the components for geomorphological process-response system is crucial for a regional seismic study. With newly emerging multi-sensor of remotely sensed data coupled with the satellite positioning system promises a better mapping and monitoring tool for seismotectonic activities in such a way that it can be used to map, monitor, and model related seismically induced processes for a comprehensive hazard and associated risk assessment.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites from Vacska cave, Pilis Mountains of Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Mónus, Péter; Konecny, Pavel; Lednicka, Marketa; Novák, Attila

2017-04-01

Damaging earthquakes in central Europe are infrequent, but do occur. This raises the important issue for society of how to react to this hazard: potential damages are enormous, and infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Obtaining an unbiased expert knowledge of the seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. Seismic activity in the Pannonian Basin is moderate. In territories with low or moderate seismic activity the recurrence time of large earthquakes can be as long as 10,000 years. Therefore, we cannot draw well-grounded inferences in the field of seismic hazard assessment exclusively from the seismic data of 1,000- to 2,000-years observational period, that we have in our earthquake catalogues. Long-term information can be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites (IVSTM) in natural karstic caves. These fragile formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of them. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Pilis Mountains of Hungary. Evidence of historic events and of differential uplifting (incision of Danube at the River Bend and in Buda and Gerecse Hills) exists in the vicinity of investigated cave site. These observations imply that a better understanding of possible co-seismic ground motions in the nearby densely populated areas of Budapest is needed. A specially shaped (high, slim and more or less cylindrical form), intact and vulnerable stalagmites in the Vacska cave, Pilis Mountains were examined. The method of our investigation includes in-situ examination of the IVSTM and mechanical laboratory measurements of broken stalagmite samples. The used approach can yield significant new constraints on the seismic hazard of the investigated area, since tectonic structures close to Vacska cave could not have generated strong paleoearthquakes in the last few thousand years, which would have produced a horizontal ground acceleration larger than the upper acceleration threshold that we can determined from the intact and vulnerable stalagmites. A particular importance of this study results from the seismic hazard of the capital of Hungary.

Earthquake design criteria for small hydro projects in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.P.; McCandless, D.H.; Asce, M.

1995-12-31

The definition of the seismic environment and seismic design criteria of more than twenty small hydro projects in the northern part of the island of Luzon in the Philippines took a special urgency on the wake of the Magnitude 7.7 earthquake that shook the island on July 17, 1990. The paper describes the approach followed to determine design shaking level criteria at each hydro site consistent with the seismic environment estimated at that same site. The approach consisted of three steps: (1) Seismicity: understanding the mechanisms and tectonic features susceptible to generate seismicity and estimating the associated seismicity levels, (2)more » Seismic Hazard: in the absence of an accurate historical record, using statistics to determine the expected level of ground shaking at a site during the operational 100-year design life of each Project, and (3) Criteria Selection: finally and most importantly, exercising judgment in estimating the final proposed level of shaking at each site. The resulting characteristics of estimated seismicity and seismic hazard and the proposed final earthquake design criteria are provided.« less

An Approach for Rapid Assessment of Seismic Hazards in Turkey by Continuous GPS Data

PubMed Central

Ozener, Haluk; Dogru, Asli; Unlutepe, Ahmet

2009-01-01

The Earth is being monitored every day by all kinds of sensors. This leads an overflow of data in all branches of science nowadays, especially in Earth Sciences. Data storage and data processing are the problems to be solved by current technologies, as well as by those accessing and analyzing these large data sources. Once solutions have been created for collecting, storing and accessing data, then the challenge becomes how to effectively share data, applications and processing resources across many locations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors are being used as geodetic instruments to precisely detect crustal motion in the Earth's surface. Rapid access to data provided by GPS sensors is becoming increasingly important for deformation monitoring and rapid hazard assessments. Today, reliable and fast collection and distribution of data is a challenge and advances in Internet technologies have made it easier to provide the needed data. This study describes a system which will be able to generate strain maps using data from continuous GPS stations for seismic hazard analysis. Strain rates are a key factor in seismic hazard analyses. Turkey is a country prone to earthquakes with a long history of seismic hazards and disasters. This situation has resulted in the studies by Earth scientists that focus on Turkey in order to improve their understanding of the Earth's crust structure and seismic hazards. Nevertheless, the construction of models, data access and analysis are often not fast as expected, but the combination of Internet technologies with continuous GPS sensors can be a solution to overcome this problem. This system would have the potential to answer many important questions to assess seismic hazards such as how much stretching, squashing and shearing is taking place in different parts of Turkey, and how do velocities change from place to place? Seismic hazard estimation is the most effective way to reduce earthquake losses. It is clear that reliability of data and on-line services will support the preparation of strategies for disaster management and planning to cope with hazards. PMID:22389619

Application of seismic interpretation in the development of Jerneh Field, Malay Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yusoff, Z.

1994-07-01

Development of the Jerneh gas field has been significantly aided by the use of 3-D and site survey seismic interpretations. The two aspects that have been of particular importance are identification of sea-floor and near-surface safety hazards for safe platform installation/development drilling and mapping of reservoirs/hydrocarbons within gas-productive sands of the Miocene groups B, D, and E. Choice of platform location as well as casing design require detailed analysis of sea-floor and near-surface safety hazards. At Jerneh, sea-floor pockmarks near-surface high amplitudes, distributary channels, and minor faults were recognized as potential operational safety hazards. The integration of conventional 3-D andmore » site survey seismic data enabled comprehensive understanding of the occurrence and distribution of potential hazards to platform installation and development well drilling. Three-dimensional seismic interpretation has been instrumental not only in the field structural definition but also in recognition of reservoir trends and hydrocarbon distribution. Additional gas reservoirs were identified by their DHI characteristics and subsequently confirmed by development wells. The innovative use of seismic attribute mapping techniques has been very important in defining both fluid and reservoir distribution in groups B and D. Integration of 3-D seismic data and well-log interpretations has helped in optimal field development, including the planning of well locations and drilling sequence.« less

Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, Luis A.; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu; Irikura, Kojiro; Wu, Changjiang

2017-09-01

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18-20 November, 2015 in Vienna (http://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/50896/BestPSHANI), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green's functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models.

Outstanding challenges in the seismological study of volcanic processes: Results from recent U.S. and European community-wide discussion workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, D. C.; Rodgers, M.; Mather, T. A.; Power, J. A.; Pyle, D. M.

2014-12-01

Observations of volcanically induced seismicity are essential for eruption forecasting and for real-time and near-real-time warnings of hazardous volcanic activity. Studies of volcanic seismicity and of seismic wave propagation also provide critical understanding of subsurface magmatic systems and the physical processes associated with magma genesis, transport, and eruption. However, desipite significant advances in recent years, our ability to successfully forecast volcanic eruptions and fully understand subsurface volcanic processes is limited by our current understanding of the source processes of volcano-seismic events, the effects on seismic wave propagation within volcanic structures, limited data, and even the non-standardized terminology used to describe seismic waveforms. Progress in volcano seismology is further hampered by inconsistent data formats and standards, lack of state-of-the-art hardware and professional technical staff, as well as a lack of widely adopted analysis techniques and software. Addressing these challenges will not only advance scientific understanding of volcanoes, but also will lead to more accurate forecasts and warnings of hazardous volcanic eruptions that would ultimately save lives and property world-wide. Two recent workshops held in Anchorage, Alaska, and Oxford, UK, represent important steps towards developing a relationship among members of the academic community and government agencies, focused around a shared, long-term vision for volcano seismology. Recommendations arising from the two workshops fall into six categories: 1) Ongoing and enhanced community-wide discussions, 2) data and code curation and dissemination, 3) code development, 4) development of resources for more comprehensive data mining, 5) enhanced strategic seismic data collection, and 6) enhanced integration of multiple datasets (including seismicity) to understand all states of volcano activity through space and time. As presented sequentially above, these steps can be regarded as a road map for galvanizing and strengthening the volcano seismological community to drive new scientific and technical progress over the next 5-10 years.

Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Zhinmeng

2007-06-01

Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties ofmore » seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.« less

Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

2017-12-01

The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent information in the Yellow Sea composite earthquake catalog (YComCat). Since earthquake catalog plays critical role in the seismic hazard assessment, YComCat provides improved input to reduce uncertainties in the seismic hazard estimations.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

San Miguel Volcanic Seismic and Structure in Central America: Insight into the Physical Processes of Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A.; Konter, J. G.

2010-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and - 88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. In general, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We initially locate events using automated routines and focus on analyzing local events. We then relocate each seismic event by hand-picking P-wave arrivals, and later refine these picks using waveform cross correlation. Using a double difference earthquake location algorithm (HypoDD), we identify a set of earthquakes that vertically align beneath the edifice of the volcano, suggesting that we have identified a magma conduit feeding the volcano. We also apply a double-difference earthquake tomography approach (tomoDD) to investigate the volcano’s plumbing system. Our preliminary results show the extent of the magma chamber that also aligns with some horizontal seismicity. Overall, this volcano is very active and presents a significant hazard to the region.

Dominant seismic sources for the cities in South Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunardi, Bambang; Sakya, Andi Eka; Masturyono, Murjaya, Jaya; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri, Putra, Ade Surya

2017-07-01

Subduction zone along west of Sumatra and Sumatran fault zone are active seismic sources. Seismotectonically, South Sumatra could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. This paper discussed contribution of each seismic source to earthquake hazards for cities of Palembang, Prabumulih, Banyuasin, OganIlir, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Oku, Musi Rawas and Empat Lawang. These hazards are presented in form of seismic hazard curves. The study was conducted by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Seismic sources used in analysis included megathrust zone M2 of Sumatra and South Sumatra, background seismic sources and shallow crustal seismic sources consist of Ketaun, Musi, Manna and Kumering faults. The results of the study showed that for cities relatively far from the seismic sources, subduction / megathrust seismic source with a depth ≤ 50 km greatly contributed to the seismic hazard and the other areas showed deep background seismic sources with a depth of more than 100 km dominate to seismic hazard respectively.

Seismic hazard in the South Carolina coastal plain: 2002 update of the USGS national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Mays, T.W.; ,

2005-01-01

The damaging 1886 moment magnitude ???7 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake is indicative of the moderately likely earthquake activity along this portion of the Atlantic Coast. A recurrence of such an earthquake today would have serious consequences for the nation. The national seismic hazard maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide a picture of the levels of seismic hazard across the nation based on the best and most current scientific information. The USGS national maps were updated in 2002 and will become part of the International Codes in 2006. In the past decade, improvements have occurred in the scientific understanding of the nature and character of earthquake activity and expected ground motions in the central and eastern U.S. The paper summarizes the new knowledge of expected earthquake locations, magnitudes, recurrence, and ground-motion decay with distance. New estimates of peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration are compared with those displayed in the 1996 national maps. The 2002 maps show increased seismic hazard in much of the coastal plain of South Carolina, but a decrease in long period (1 s and greater) hazard by up to 20% at distances of over 50 km from the Charleston earthquake zone. Although the national maps do not account for the effects of local or regional sediments, deep coastal-plain sediments can significally alter expected ground shaking, particularly at long period motions where it can be 100% higher than the national maps.

Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

2009-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

Subsurface fault geometries in Southern California illuminated through Full-3D Seismic Waveform Tomography (F3DT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, En-Jui; Chen, Po

2017-04-01

More precise spatial descriptions of fault systems play an essential role in tectonic interpretations, deformation modeling, and seismic hazard assessments. The recent developed full-3D waveform tomography techniques provide high-resolution images and are able to image the material property differences across faults to assist the understanding of fault systems. In the updated seismic velocity model for Southern California, CVM-S4.26, many velocity gradients show consistency with surface geology and major faults defined in the Community Fault Model (CFM) (Plesch et al. 2007), which was constructed by using various geological and geophysical observations. In addition to faults in CFM, CVM-S4.26 reveals a velocity reversal mainly beneath the San Gabriel Mountain and Western Mojave Desert regions, which is correlated with the detachment structure that has also been found in other independent studies. The high-resolution tomographic images of CVM-S4.26 could assist the understanding of fault systems in Southern California and therefore benefit the development of fault models as well as other applications, such as seismic hazard analysis, tectonic reconstructions, and crustal deformation modeling.

Temporal Delineation and Quantification of Short Term Clustered Mining Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Kyle; Wesseloo, Johan; Potvin, Yves

2017-07-01

The assessment of the temporal characteristics of seismicity is fundamental to understanding and quantifying the seismic hazard associated with mining, the effectiveness of strategies and tactics used to manage seismic hazard, and the relationship between seismicity and changes to the mining environment. This article aims to improve the accuracy and precision in which the temporal dimension of seismic responses can be quantified and delineated. We present a review and discussion on the occurrence of time-dependent mining seismicity with a specific focus on temporal modelling and the modified Omori law (MOL). This forms the basis for the development of a simple weighted metric that allows for the consistent temporal delineation and quantification of a seismic response. The optimisation of this metric allows for the selection of the most appropriate modelling interval given the temporal attributes of time-dependent mining seismicity. We evaluate the performance weighted metric for the modelling of a synthetic seismic dataset. This assessment shows that seismic responses can be quantified and delineated by the MOL, with reasonable accuracy and precision, when the modelling is optimised by evaluating the weighted MLE metric. Furthermore, this assessment highlights that decreased weighted MLE metric performance can be expected if there is a lack of contrast between the temporal characteristics of events associated with different processes.

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2006-01-01

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

2017-12-01

While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard within local communities, and understanding the seismo-tectonic processes taking place in Sabah

Geographic deaggregation of seismic hazard in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Frankel, A.

2001-01-01

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States (http://geohazards. cr.usgs.gov/eq/) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Surficial Seismology: Landslides, Glaciers, and Volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest through a Seismic Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, Kate

The following work is focused on the use of both traditional and novel seismological tools, combined with concepts from other disciplines, to investigate shallow seismic sources and hazards. The study area is the dynamic landscape of the Pacific Northwest and its wide-ranging earthquake, landslide, glacier, and volcano-related hazards. The first chapter focuses on landsliding triggered by earthquakes, with a shallow crustal earthquake in Seattle as a case study. The study demonstrates that utilizing broadband synthetic seismograms and rigorously incorporating 3D basin amplification, 1D site effects, and fault directivity, allows for a more complete assessment of regional seismically induced landslide hazard. The study shows that the hazard is severe for Seattle, and provides a framework for future probabilistic maps and near real-time hazard assessment. The second chapter focuses on landslides that generate seismic waves and how these signals can be harnessed to better understand landslide dynamics. This is demonstrated using two contrasting Pacific Northwest landslides. The 2010 Mount Meager, BC, landslide generated strong long period waves. New full waveform inversion methods reveal the time history of forces the landslide exerted on the earth that is used to quantify event dynamics. Despite having a similar volume (˜107 m3), The 2009 Nile Valley, WA, landslide did not generate observable long period motions because of its smaller accelerations, but pulses of higher frequency waves were valuable in piecing together the complex sequence of events. The final chapter details the difficulties of monitoring glacier-clad volcanoes. The focus is on small, repeating, low-frequency earthquakes at Mount Rainier that resemble volcanic earthquakes. However, based on this investigation, they are actually glacial in origin: most likely stick-slip sliding of glaciers triggered by snow loading. Identification of the source offers a view of basal glacier processes, discriminates against alarming volcanic noises, and has implications for repeating earthquakes in tectonic environments. This body of work demonstrates that by combining methods and concepts from seismology and other disciplines in new ways, we can obtain a better understanding and a fresh perspective of the physics behind the shallow seismic sources and hazards that threaten the Pacific Northwest.

Review of Seismic Hazard Issues Associated with Auburn Dam Project, Sierra Nevada Foothills, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, D.P.; Joyner, W.B.; Stein, R.S.; Brown, R.D.; McGarr, A.F.; Hickman, S.H.; Bakun, W.H.

1996-01-01

Summary -- The U.S. Geological Survey was requested by the U.S. Department of the Interior to review the design values and the issue of reservoir-induced seismicity for a concrete gravity dam near the site of the previously-proposed Auburn Dam in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada, central California. The dam is being planned as a flood-control-only dam with the possibility of conversion to a permanent water-storage facility. As a basis for planning studies the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is using the same design values approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1979 for the original Auburn Dam. These values were a maximum displacement of 9 inches on a fault intersecting the dam foundation, a maximum earthquake at the site of magnitude 6.5, a peak horizontal acceleration of 0.64 g, and a peak vertical acceleration of 0.39 g. In light of geological and seismological investigations conducted in the western Sierran foothills since 1979 and advances in the understanding of how earthquakes are caused and how faults behave, we have developed the following conclusions and recommendations: Maximum Displacement. Neither the pre-1979 nor the recent observations of faults in the Sierran foothills precisely define the maximum displacement per event on a fault intersecting the dam foundation. Available field data and our current understanding of surface faulting indicate a range of values for the maximum displacement. This may require the consideration of a design value larger than 9 inches. We recommend reevaluation of the design displacement using current seismic hazard methods that incorporate uncertainty into the estimate of this design value. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude. There are no data to indicate that a significant change is necessary in the use of an M 6.5 maximum earthquake to estimate design ground motions at the dam site. However, there is a basis for estimating a range of maximum magnitudes using recent field information and new statistical fault relations. We recommend reevaluating the maximum earthquake magnitude using current seismic hazard methodology. Design Ground Motions. A large number of strong-motion records have been acquired and significant advances in understanding of ground motion have been achieved since the original evaluations. The design value for peak horizontal acceleration (0.64 g) is larger than the median of one recent study and smaller than the median value of another. The value for peak vertical acceleration (0.39 g) is somewhat smaller than median values of two recent studies. We recommend a reevaluation of the design ground motions that takes into account new ground motion data with particular attention to rock sites at small source distances. Reservoir-Induced Seismicity. The potential for reservoir-induced seismicity must be considered for the Auburn Darn project. A reservoir-induced earthquake is not expected to be larger than the maximum naturally occurring earthquake. However, the probability of an earthquake may be enhanced by reservoir impoundment. A flood-control-only project may involve a lower probability of significant induced seismicity than a multipurpose water-storage dam. There is a need to better understand and quantify the likelihood of this hazard. A methodology should be developed to quantify the potential for reservoir induced seismicity using seismicity data from the Sierran foothills, new worldwide observations of induced and triggered seismicity, and current understanding of the earthquake process. Reevaluation of Design Parameters. The reevaluation of the maximum displacement, maximum magnitude earthquake, and design ground motions can be made using available field observations from the Sierran foothills, updated statistical relations for faulting and ground motions, and current computational seismic hazard methodologies that incorporate uncertainty into the analysis. The reevaluation does not require significant new geological field studies.

Awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards at school

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraò, Angela; Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi

2014-05-01

Schools have a fundamental role in broadening the understanding of natural hazard and risks and in building the awareness in the community. Recent earthquakes in Italy and worldwide, have clearly demonstrated that the poor perception of seismic hazards diminishes the effectiveness of mitigation countermeasures. Since years the Seismology's department of OGS is involved in education projects and public activities to raise awareness about earthquakes. Working together with teachers we aim at developing age-appropriate curricula to improve the student's knowledge about earthquakes, seismic safety, and seismic risk reduction. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last years are here presented. We show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects to kids, but we illustrate also some teaching interventions for high school students. During the past years we lectured classes, we led laboratory and field activities, and we organized summer stages for selected students. In the current year we are leading a project aimed at training high school students on seismic safety through a multidisciplinary approach that involves seismologists, engineers and experts of safety procedures. To combine the objective of dissemination of earthquake culture, also through the knowledge of the past seismicity, with that of a safety culture, we use innovative educational techniques and multimedia resources. Students and teachers, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, organize a combination of hands-on activities for understanding earthquakes in the lab through cheap tools and instrumentations At selected schools we provided the low cost seismometers of the QuakeCatcher network (http://qcn.stanford.edu) for recording earthquakes, and we trained teachers to use such instruments in the lab and to analyze recorded data. Within the same project we are going to train selected students as communicators so that they can transfer simple educational messages on the seismic risk reduction to other students and/or to the whole community. The experiment is taking place in North East Italy, an area on which OGS detect earthquakes for seismological study and seismic alarm purposes. Teachers and students participating in the project are expected to present their achieved experience during a public event, at University of Udine (Italy).

An updated stress map of the continental United States reveals heterogeneous intraplate stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levandowski, Will; Herrmann, Robert B.; Briggs, Rich; Boyd, Oliver; Gold, Ryan

2018-06-01

Knowledge of the state of stress in Earth's crust is key to understanding the forces and processes responsible for earthquakes. Historically, low rates of natural seismicity in the central and eastern United States have complicated efforts to understand intraplate stress, but recent improvements in seismic networks and the spread of human-induced seismicity have greatly improved data coverage. Here, we compile a nationwide stress map based on formal inversions of focal mechanisms that challenges the idea that deformation in continental interiors is driven primarily by broad, uniform stress fields derived from distant plate boundaries. Despite plate-boundary compression, extension dominates roughly half of the continent, and second-order forces related to lithospheric structure appear to control extension directions. We also show that the states of stress in several active eastern United States seismic zones differ significantly from those of surrounding areas and that these anomalies cannot be explained by transient processes, suggesting that earthquakes are focused by persistent, locally derived sources of stress. Such spatially variable intraplate stress appears to justify the current, spatially variable estimates of seismic hazard. Future work to quantify sources of stress, stressing-rate magnitudes and their relationship with strain and earthquake rates could allow prospective mapping of intraplate hazard.

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Assessment of Uncertainties Related to Seismic Hazard Using Fuzzy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorjiashvili, N.; Yokoi, T.; Javakhishvili, Z.

2013-05-01

Seismic hazard analysis in last few decades has been become very important issue. Recently, new technologies and available data have been improved that helped many scientists to understand where and why earthquakes happen, physics of earthquakes, etc. They have begun to understand the role of uncertainty in Seismic hazard analysis. However, there is still significant problem how to handle existing uncertainty. The same lack of information causes difficulties to quantify uncertainty accurately. Usually attenuation curves are obtained in statistical way: regression analysis. Statistical and probabilistic analysis show overlapped results for the site coefficients. This overlapping takes place not only at the border between two neighboring classes, but also among more than three classes. Although the analysis starts from classifying sites using the geological terms, these site coefficients are not classified at all. In the present study, this problem is solved using Fuzzy set theory. Using membership functions the ambiguities at the border between neighboring classes can be avoided. Fuzzy set theory is performed for southern California by conventional way. In this study standard deviations that show variations between each site class obtained by Fuzzy set theory and classical way are compared. Results on this analysis show that when we have insufficient data for hazard assessment site classification based on Fuzzy set theory shows values of standard deviations less than obtained by classical way which is direct proof of less uncertainty.

Contribution to the assessment of the imminent seismic hazard: Geophysical, statistical (and more) challenges in the territory of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamaki, Angeliki K.; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria E.; Karakostas, Vassilis G.; Tsaklidis, George M.

2013-04-01

The necessity of the imminent seismic hazard assessment stems from a strong social component which is the outcome of the need of people to inquire more in order to understand nature exhaustively and not partially, either to satisfy their inner curiosity or in favor of their self preservation instinct against the physical phenomena that the human kind cannot control. Choosing this path to follow, many seismologists have focused on forecasting the temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes in short time scales. The possibility of knowing with a degree of certainty the way an earthquake sequence evolves proves to be an important object of research. Being more specific, the present work summarizes applications of seismicity and statistical models on seismic catalogues of areas that are specified by their tectonic structures and their past seismicity, providing information on the temporal and spatial evolution of local seismic activity, which can point out seismicity rate "irregularities" or changes as precursors of strong events, either in case of a main shock or a strong aftershock. In order to study these rate changes both preceding and following a strong earthquake, seismicity models are applied in order to estimate the Coulomb stress changes resulting from the occurrence of a strong earthquake and their results are combined with the application of a Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. There are many active tectonic structures in the territory of Greece that are related with the occurrence of strong earthquakes, especially near populated areas, and the aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of the imminent seismic hazard by applying the aforementioned models and techniques and studying the temporal evolution of several seismic sequences that occurred in the Aegean area in the near past.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: Considering an Active Leech River Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukovica, J.; Molnar, S.; Ghofrani, H.

2017-12-01

The Leech River fault is situated on Vancouver Island near the city of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The 60km transpressional reverse fault zone runs east to west along the southern tip of Vancouver Island, dividing the lithologic units of Jurassic-Cretaceous Leech River Complex schists to the north and Eocene Metchosin Formation basalts to the south. This fault system poses a considerable hazard due to its proximity to Victoria and 3 major hydroelectric dams. The Canadian seismic hazard model for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) considered the fault system to be inactive. However, recent paleoseismic evidence suggests there to be at least 2 surface-rupturing events to have exceeded a moment magnitude (M) of 6.5 within the last 15,000 years (Morell et al. 2017). We perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for the city of Victoria with consideration of the Leech River fault as an active source. A PSHA for Victoria which replicates the 2015 NBCC estimates is accomplished to calibrate our PSHA procedure. The same seismic source zones, magnitude recurrence parameters, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are used. We replicate the uniform hazard spectrum for a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years for a 500 km radial area around Victoria. An active Leech River fault zone is then added; known length and dip. We are determining magnitude recurrence parameters based on a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for the Leech River fault from various catalogues of the recorded seismicity (M 2-3) within the fault's vicinity and the proposed paleoseismic events. We seek to understand whether inclusion of an active Leech River fault source will significantly increase the probabilistic seismic hazard for Victoria. Morell et al. 2017. Quaternary rupture of a crustal fault beneath Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. GSA Today, 27, doi: 10.1130/GSATG291A.1

New Possibilities In Assessing Time-dependent Seismic Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V.

A novel understanding of seismic occurrence process in terms of dynamics of a hierar- chical system of blocks-and-faults implies the necessity of new approaches to seismic risk assessment, which would allow for evident heterogeneity of seismic distribution in space and time. Spatial, apparently fractal, patterns of seismic distribution should be treated appropriately in estimation of seismic hazard. Otherwise the result could be over- or underestimated significantly. The patterns are clearly associated with tec- tonic movement, which traces being accumulated in a time-scale of tens of thousand years or larger provide geographic, geologic, gravity, and magnetic evidence of inten- sity of driving forces, their directivity and dating. This, term-less, in a sense of hu- man life-time, evidence, both clear and masked, requires analysis that involves pattern recognition and interpretation before it is used in favor of a conclusion about present day seismic activity. Moreover, the existing reproducible intermediate-term medium- range earthquake prediction algorithms that have passed statistical significance testing in forward application complement a knowledgeable estimation of the temporal devi- ation of seismic hazard in a given area from a constant. Bringing together the two estimations and convolving them with a given distribution of valuables of different kinds, e.g. population, industry, economy, etc., finalizes an estimation of seismic risk distribution.

Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Daniel Taylor

The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical features of the historical seismic record, they are inconsistent with the complexity underlying earthquake occurrence and can lead to misleading assessments of seismic hazard when applied in practice. The six principle chapters of this thesis explore the extent to which the behavior of real earthquakes deviates from these simplified models, and the implications that the observed deviations have for our understanding of earthquake rupture processes and seismic hazard. Chapter 1 provides a brief thematic overview and introduction to the scope of this thesis. Chapter 2 examines the complexity of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, focusing on the relation between its unexpected and unprecedented occurrence and anthropogenic stresses from the nearby Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field. Chapter 3 compares long-term changes in seismicity within California's three largest geothermal fields in an effort to characterize the relative influence of natural and anthropogenic stress transients on local seismic hazard. Chapter 4 describes a hybrid, hierarchical clustering algorithm that can be used to relocate earthquakes using waveform cross-correlation, and applies the new algorithm to study the spatiotemporal evolution of two recent seismic swarms in western Nevada. Chapter 5 describes a new spectral decomposition technique that can be used to analyze the dynamic source properties of large datasets of earthquakes, and applies this approach to revisit the question of self-similar scaling of southern California seismicity. Chapter 6 builds upon these results and applies the same spectral decomposition technique to examine the source properties of several thousand recent earthquakes in southern Kansas that are likely human-induced by massive oil and gas operations in the region. Chapter 7 studies the connection between source spectral properties and earthquake hazard, focusing on spatial variations in dynamic stress drop and its influence on ground motion amplitudes. Finally, Chapter 8 provides a summary of the key findings of and relations between these studies, and outlines potential avenues of future research.

New ShakeMaps for Georgia Resulting from Collaboration with EMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Alania, V.

2015-12-01

Correct assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard and risks maps are first step for advance planning and action to reduce seismic risk. Seismic hazard maps for Georgia were calculated based on modern approach that was developed in the frame of EMME (Earthquake Modl for Middle east region) project. EMME was one of GEM's successful endeavors at regional level. With EMME and GEM assistance, regional models were analyzed to identify the information and additional work needed for the preparation national hazard models. Probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSH) provides the critical bases for improved building code and construction. The most serious deficiency in PSH assessment for the territory of Georgia is the lack of high-quality ground motion data. Due to this an initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Obtained results of seismic hazard maps show evidence that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation.

Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing.

PubMed

Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S

2018-02-20

Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values < 1, and many post-shut-in earthquakes, versus ( ii ) shallower earthquakes in Paleozoic rocks ∼400 m below HF, with smaller magnitudes (M < 1), b-values > 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.

2018-02-01

Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values < 1, and many post–shut-in earthquakes, versus (ii) shallower earthquakes in Paleozoic rocks ˜400 m below HF, with smaller magnitudes (M < 1), b-values > 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, W. A.

2017-12-01

In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, Jens-Uwe

2008-05-01

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies. Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.

Seismic risk perception test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

2013-04-01

The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to population and territory); seismic risk in general; risk information and their sources; comparison between seismic risk and other natural hazards. Informative data include: Region, Province, Municipality of residence, Data compilation, Age, Sex, Place of Birth, Nationality, Marital status, Children, Level of education, Employment. The test allows to obtain the perception score for each factor: Hazard, Exposed value, Vulnerability. These scores can be put in relation with the scientific data relating to hazard, vulnerability and the exposed value. On January 2013 started a Survey in the Po Valley and Southern Apennines. The survey will be conducted via web using institutional sites of regions, provinces, municipalities, online newspapers to local spreading, etc. Preliminary data will be discussed. Improve our understanding of the perception of seismic risk would allow us to inform more effectively and to built better educational projects to mitigate risk.

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza; Sazjini, Mohammad; Shahaky, Mohsen; Tajrishi, Fatemeh Zahedi; Khanmohammadi, Leila

2014-07-01

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

EFEHR - the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk: beyond the web-platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico

2017-04-01

European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal (www.efehr.org) collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (http://www.share-eu.org/); the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (www.emme-gem.org); the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

Annotated bibliography, seismicity of and near the island of Hawaii and seismic hazard analysis of the East Rift of Kilauea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, F.W.

1994-03-28

This bibliography is divided into the following four sections: Seismicity of Hawaii and Kilauea Volcano; Occurrence, locations and accelerations from large historical Hawaiian earthquakes; Seismic hazards of Hawaii; and Methods of seismic hazard analysis. It contains 62 references, most of which are accompanied by short abstracts.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites for the surroundings of Katerloch cave, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Kalmár, János

2016-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, and infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural karstic caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on a case study from the Katerloch cave close to the city of Graz, Austria. A specially-shaped (candle stick style: high, slim, and more or less cylindrical form) intact and vulnerable stalagmites (IVSTM) in the Katerloch cave has been examined in 2013 and 2014. This IVSTM is suitable for estimating the upper limit for horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by pre-historic earthquakes. For this cave, we have extensive information about ages (e.g., Boch et al., 2006, 2010). The approach, used in our study, yields significant new constraints on seismic hazard, as the intactness of the stalagmites suggests that tectonic structures close to Katerloch cave, i.p. the Mur-Mürz fault did not generate very strong paleoearthquakes in the last few thousand years. This study is particular important for understanding the seismic hazard associated with the town of Graz. The acceleration level determined by our study for the territory of Katerloch cave is much lower than the PGA value interval (from 0.075 g to 0.1 g, in case of arithmetic mean, 85% fragile, rock type) determined by probabilistic seismic hazard calculation (SHARE Model, e.g., Giardini et al., 2013,) for a 475 years recurrence time (in 50 years with 10% probability of exceedance).

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2001-01-01

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

CO2 production by mechanical stress on carbonate rocks and its implications for natural hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Italiano, Francesco; Pizzullo, Sonia; Plescia, Paolo

2010-05-01

The distribution of known CO2 discharges generally coincides with the on-land segments of major linear zones of seismicity throughout the world, showing the strong correlation between natural degassing and earthquakes. On the other hand, aftershocks of large earthquakes have been attributed to the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure CO2-dominated fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the main shock thus underlining the role of the fluids as "agents" able to generate overpressures and reactivate fault segments inducing earthquakes. Recent experimental results have demonstrated that CO2 can be produced by mechanical stress applied on carbonate rocks sometimes requiring a relatively low energy amount. As a result, crustal volatiles can be produced due to high-pressure, mechanical stresses at moderate levels within the crust. Experiments, whereby different types of carbonate rocks (natural and synthetic) have been milled, have shown that carbonates release CO2 systematically and reproducibly leaving little doubt that carbonate rock located in shallow parts of the crust may undergo structural break-down to form CO2, particularly in the presence of accessory phases such as clays. Such a process allows several natural systems (e.g. active faults in limestones) to become significant CO2 producer when mechanical stress is applied. The possibility of assessing the linkage between variations in geochemical tracers and the onset of seismic activity, is a topical research activity of meaningful societal relevance and contributes to understand some processes related to the seismogenesis, thus to the largest natural hazard for the humankind. As such, monitoring CO2 over seismic-prone areas located in carbonate rocks, may provide a better insight of the development of the seismogenic process and useful tools in understanding the response of volatiles to crustal perturbations. Moreover, since crustal deformation can also occur aseismically, and rock deformation may produce CO2 as a response to the applied mechanical stress, monitoring of CO2 discharges could be useful in the estimate the probability increase of an impending earthquake in a potentially hazardous seismic region. Laboratory results and field investigations carried out over the seismic-prone area of the Central Apennines provided the first results useful for practical applications in facing the natural hazards related to both seismic activity and release of hazardous gases.

The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesseloo, Johan

2018-06-01

Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

Evaluation of induced seismicity forecast models in the Induced Seismicity Test Bench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Zechar, Jeremy; Doetsch, Joseph; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Wiemer, Stefan

2016-04-01

Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. Here, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models that incorporate a different mix of physical understanding and stochastic representation of the induced sequences: Shapiro in Space (SiS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). SiS is based on three pillars: the seismicity rate is computed with help of the seismogenic index and a simple exponential decay of the seismicity; the magnitude distribution follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation; and seismicity is distributed in space based on smoothing seismicity during the learning period with 3D Gaussian kernels. The HySei model describes seismicity triggered by pressure diffusion with irreversible permeability enhancement. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. HySei forecasts the seismicity rate well, but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SiS forecasts the spatial distribution well but not the seismicity rate. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in. Ensemble models that combine HySei's rate forecast with SiS's spatial forecast outperform each individual model.

Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

2011-01-01

Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

Advanced National Seismic System—Current status, development opportunities, and priorities for 2017–2027

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2017-05-25

SummaryEarthquakes pose a threat to the safety of over 143 million people living in the United States. Earthquake impacts can be significantly reduced if communities understand their risk and take proactive steps to mitigate that risk. The Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) is a cooperative effort to collect and analyze seismic and geodetic data on earthquakes, issue timely and reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts, and provide data for earthquake research and the hazard and risk assessments that are the foundation for creating an earthquakeresilient nation.

Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Wheeler, Russell L.; Wesson, Robert L.; Zeng, Yuehua; Boyd, Oliver S.; Perkins, David M.; Luco, Nicolas; Field, Edward H.; Wills, Chris J.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2008-01-01

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States (maps of Alaska and Hawaii as well as further information on hazard across the United States are available on our Web site at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/).

A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

2018-03-01

The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanner, J.G.; Shedlock, K.M.

2004-01-01

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschetti, M. P.; Mueller, C. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Petersen, M. D.

2013-12-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2014-01-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

The Olmsted fault zone, southernmost Illinois: A key to understanding seismic hazard in the northern new Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, C.E.; McBride, J.H.; Pugin, Andre J.M.; Nelson, W.J.; Larson, T.H.; Sargent, S.L.

2005-01-01

Geological deformation in the northern New Madrid seismic zone, near Olmsted, Illinois (USA), is analyzed using integrated compressional-wave (P) and horizontally polarized-wave (SH) seismic reflection and regional and dedicated borehole information. Seismic hazards are of special concern because of strategic facilities (e.g., lock and dam sites and chemical plants on the Ohio River near its confluence with the Mississippi River) and because of alluvial soils subject to high amplification of earthquake shock. We use an integrated approach starting with lower resolution, but deeper penetration, P-wave reflection profiles to identify displacement of Paleozoic bedrock. Higher resolution, but shallower penetration, SH-wave images show deformation that has propagated upward from bedrock faults into Pleistocene loess. We have mapped an intricate zone more than 8 km wide of high-angle faults in Mississippi embayment sediments localized over Paleozoic bedrock faults that trend north to northeast, parallel to the Ohio River. These faults align with the pattern of epicenters in the New Madrid seismic zone. Normal and reverse offsets along with positive flower structures imply a component of strike-slip; the current stress regime favors right-lateral slip on northeast-trending faults. The largest fault, the Olmsted fault, underwent principal displacement near the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 to 70 million years ago. Strata of this age (dated via fossil pollen) thicken greatly on the downthrown side of the Olmsted fault into a locally subsiding basin. Small offsets of Tertiary and Quaternary strata are evident on high-resolution SH-wave seismic profiles. Our results imply recent reactivation and possible future seismic activity in a critical area of the New Madrid seismic zone. This integrated approach provides a strategy for evaluating shallow seismic hazard-related targets for engineering concerns. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-01-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Geophysical investigations in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovach, Robert L.; Andreasen, Gordon E.; Gettings, Mark E.; El-Kaysi, Kays

1990-08-01

A number of geophysical investigations have been undertaken in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to provide data for understanding the tectonic framework, the pattern of seismicity, earthquake hazards and geothermal resources of the country. Both the historical seismic record and the observed recent seismicity point to the dominance of the Dead Sea Rift as the main locus of seismic activity but significant branching trends and gaps in the seismicity pattern are also seen. A wide variety of focal plane solutions are observed emphasizing the complex pattern of fault activity in the vicinity of the rift zone. Geophysical investigations directed towards the geothermal assessment of the prominent thermal springs of Zerga Ma'in and Zara are not supportive of the presence of a crustal magmatic source.

Geophysical investigations in Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, R.L.; Andreasen, G.E.; Gettings, M.E.; El-Kaysi, K.

1990-01-01

A number of geophysical investigations have been undertaken in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to provide data for understanding the tectonic framework, the pattern of seismicity, earthquake hazards and geothermal resources of the country. Both the historical seismic record and the observed recent seismicity point to the dominance of the Dead Sea Rift as the main locus of seismic activity but significant branching trends and gaps in the seismicity pattern are also seen. A wide variety of focal plane solutions are observed emphasizing the complex pattern of fault activity in the vicinity of the rift zone. Geophysical investigations directed towards the geothermal assessment of the prominent thermal springs of Zerga Ma'in and Zara are not supportive of the presence of a crustal magmatic source. ?? 1990.

Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake.

PubMed

Delorey, Andrew A; Chao, Kevin; Obara, Kazushige; Johnson, Paul A

2015-10-01

Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 M w (moment magnitude) 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth's stress state. Earth's stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. We show that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust in cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which the material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth's elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

2018-05-01

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

Geologic map of Mount Gareloi, Gareloi Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, Michelle L.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Browne, Brandon L.

2012-01-01

As part of an effort to both monitor and study all historically active volcanoes in Alaska, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) undertook a field program at Mount Gareloi in the summer of 2003. During a month-long period, seismic networks were installed at Mount Gareloi and the neighboring Tanaga volcanic cluster. During this time, we undertook the first geologic field study of the volcano since Robert Coats visited Gareloi Island for four days in 1946. Understanding the geology of this relatively small island is important from a hazards perspective, because Mount Gareloi lies beneath a heavily trafficked air route between North America and Asia and has frequently erupted airborne ash since 1760. At least two landslides from the island have deposited debris on the sea floor; thus, landslide-generated tsunamis are also a potential hazard. Since seismic instruments were installed in 2003, they have detected small but consistent seismic signals from beneath Mount Gareloi's edifice, suggesting an active hydrothermal system. Mount Gareloi is also important from the standpoint of understanding subduction-related volcanism, because it lies in the western portion of the volcanically active arc, where subduction is oblique to the arc front. Understanding the compositional evolution of Mount Gareloi fills a spatial gap in along-arc studies.

Use of raster-based data layers to model spatial variation of seismotectonic data in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R.

2009-07-01

Recent achievements in computer and information technology have provided the necessary tools to extend the application of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping from its traditional engineering use to many other applications. Examples for such applications are risk mitigation, disaster management, post disaster recovery planning and catastrophe loss estimation and risk management. Due to the lack of proper knowledge with regard to factors controlling seismic hazards, there are always uncertainties associated with all steps involved in developing and using seismic hazard models. While some of these uncertainties can be controlled by more accurate and reliable input data, the majority of the data and assumptions used in seismic hazard studies remain with high uncertainties that contribute to the uncertainty of the final results. In this paper a new methodology for the assessment of seismic hazard is described. The proposed approach provides practical facility for better capture of spatial variations of seismological and tectonic characteristics, which allows better treatment of their uncertainties. In the proposed approach, GIS raster-based data models are used in order to model geographical features in a cell-based system. The cell-based source model proposed in this paper provides a framework for implementing many geographically referenced seismotectonic factors into seismic hazard modelling. Examples for such components are seismic source boundaries, rupture geometry, seismic activity rate, focal depth and the choice of attenuation functions. The proposed methodology provides improvements in several aspects of the standard analytical tools currently being used for assessment and mapping of regional seismic hazard. The proposed methodology makes the best use of the recent advancements in computer technology in both software and hardware. The proposed approach is well structured to be implemented using conventional GIS tools.

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015 Sabah earthquake offers a case in point.

Monte Carlo simulation for slip rate sensitivity analysis in Cimandiri fault area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratama, Cecep, E-mail: great.pratama@gmail.com; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

Slip rate is used to estimate earthquake recurrence relationship which is the most influence for hazard level. We examine slip rate contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Then, Monte Carlo simulations properties have been assessed. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate formore » Cimandiri Fault area has been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates is sensitive to fault slip rate with seismic hazard uncertainty result about 0.25 g. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate for Sukabumi is between 0.4904 – 0.8465 g with uncertainty between 0.0847 – 0.2389 g and COV between 17.7% – 29.8%.« less

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.

1999-01-01

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local government, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Evaluation of Horizontal Seismic Hazard of Shahrekord, Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Dehkordi, M. Raeisi; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Shahrekord, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 75, 225, 475 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2007. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Shahrekord were identified within the radius of 150 km and the recurrencemore » relationships of these sources were generated. Finally four maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Shahrekord in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.« less

A Gis Model Application Supporting The Analysis of The Seismic Hazard For The Urban Area of Catania (italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

After the Summit held in Washington on August 20-22 2001 to plan the first World Conference on the mitigation of Natural Hazards, a Group for the analysis of Natural Hazards within the Mediterranean area has been formed. The Group has so far determined the following hazards: (1) Seismic hazard (hazard for historical buildings included); (2) Hazard linked to the quantity and quality of water; (3) Landslide hazard; (4) Volcanic hazard. The analysis of such hazards implies the creation and the management of data banks, which can only be used if the data are properly geo-settled to allow a crossed use of them. The obtained results must be therefore represented on geo-settled maps. The present study is part of a research programme, namely "Detailed Scenarios and Actions for Seismic Prevention of Damage in the Urban Area of Catania", financed by the National Department for the Civil Protection and the National Research Council-National Group for the Defence Against Earthquakes (CNR-GNDT). Nowadays the south-eastern area of Sicily, called the "Iblea" seismic area of Sicily, is considered as one of the most intense seismic zones in Italy, based on the past and current seismic history and on the typology of civil buildings. Safety against earthquake hazards has two as pects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena such as amplification, land sliding and soil liquefaction. So the correct evaluation of seismic hazard is highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. The effect of local geotechnical conditions on damages suffered by buildings under seismic conditions has been widely recognized, as it is demonstrated by the Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards edited by the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (TC4, 1999). The evaluation of local amplification effects may be carried out by means of either rigorous complex methods of analysis or qualitative procedures. A semi quantitative procedure based on the definition of the geotechnical hazard index has been applied for the zonation of the seismic geotechnical hazard of the city of Catania. In particular this procedure has been applied to define the influence of geotechnical properties of soil in a central area of the city of Catania, where some historical buildings of great importance are sited. It was also performed an investigation based on the inspection of more than one hundred historical ecclesiastical buildings of great importance, located in the city. Then, in order to identify the amplification effects due to the site conditions, a geotechnical survey form was prepared, to allow a semi quantitative evaluation of the seismic geotechnical hazard for all these historical buildings. In addition, to evaluate the foundation soil time -history response, a 1-D dynamic soil model was employed for all these buildings, considering the non linearity of soil behaviour. Using a GIS, a map of the seismic geotechnical hazard, of the liquefaction hazard and a preliminary map of the seismic hazard for the city of Catania have been obtained. From the analysis of obtained results it may be noticed that high hazard zones are mainly clayey sites

Seismic Hazard Implication of the Seismotectonics of southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midzi, Vunganai; Mulabisana, Thifelimbilu; Manzunzu, Brassnavy

2014-05-01

The work presented in this report / presentation was prepared as part of the requirements for the SIDA/IGCP Project 601 titled "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazards in Africa" as well as part of the seismic source characterisation of the GEM-Africa Seismic hazard study. An effort was made to compile information necessary to prepare a seismotectonic map of Africa which can then be used in carrying out a seismic hazard assessment of the continent or locations within the continent. Information on major faults, fault plane solutions, geophysical data as well as stress data has so far been collected and included in a database for the southern Africa region. Reports published by several experts contributed much to the collected information. The seismicity data used are part of the earthquake catalogue being prepared for the GEM-Africa project, which includes historical and instrumental records as collected from various sources. An effort has been made to characterise the identified major faults and through further analysis investigate their possible impact on the seismic hazard of southern Africa.

Recent Advances in Subsurface Imaging and Monitoring with Active Sources in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Chen, Y.; Wang, W.; Yang, W.

2017-12-01

Imaging high-resolution crustal structures and monitoring their temporal changes with active sources is essential to our understanding of regional tectonics and seismic hazards. In the past decades, great efforts has been made in China to looking for an ideal artificial seismic source to study continental crustal structures. After a mountain of field experiments, we developed permanent and portable seismic airgun sources for inland seismotectonic studies. Here we introduce several applications of using airgun source to imaging local crustal structures and monitoring velocity changes associated with natural and anthropogenic loadings. During Oct. 10th-20th, 2015, we carried out a crustal structure exploration experiment by firing portable airgun source along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province of eastern China. About 5000 shots were fired along 300km long section of the river. More than 2000 portable short period seismometers or geophones were deployed during the experiment. About 3000 of 5000 shots were fired at 20 fixed sites roughly evenly distributed along the river, and the rest shots were fired in the walkway. Seismic signal radiated by airgun source can be tracked to 350km. 2D/3D near surface and crustal velocity structure along the Yangtze River and adjacent region were inverted from airgun seismic records. Inverted velocity show well consistence with previous images and geological structure. The high resolution structural image provides a better understanding on regional geologic features and distribution of mineral resources. In the past five years, three Fixed Aigun Signal Transmitting Stations (FASTS) were built in western China. Those FASTS generate seismic signals with high repeatability, which can be tracked to the distance 1300 km. The highly reproducible signals are used to monitor the subtle subsurface changes. Observed diurnal and semi-diurnal velocity changes 10-4 are supposed to be results of barometrical and tidal loading. Suspicious velocity changes prior to several moderate earthquakes are detected around. Seismic velocity measured around the Hutubi underground gas storage show clear correlation with the gas pressure. Those results shed some light on the short term evolution of the shallow to low crust, which may boost our understanding the mechanism of local seismic hazards.

New seismic study begins in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarr, A.C.

1974-01-01

A new seismological project is now underway in Puerto Rico to provide information needed for accurate assessment of the island's seismic hazard. The project should also help to increase understanding of the tectonics and geologic evolution of the Caribbean region. The Puerto Rico Seismic Program is being conducted by the Geological Survey with support provided by the Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority, an agency responsible for generation and distribution of electric power throughout the Commonwealth. The Program will include the installation of a network of high quality seismograph stations to monitor seismic activity on and around Puerto Rico. These stations will be distributed across the island to record the seismicity as uniformly as possible. The detection and accurate location of small earthquakes, as well as moderate magnitude shocks, will aid in mapping active seismic zones and in compiling frequency of occurrence statistics which ultimately wil be useful in seismic risk-zoning of hte island. 

Seismic hazard assessment of the cultural heritage sites: A case study in Cappadocia (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyrek, Evren; Orhan, Ahmet; Dinçer, İsmail

2014-05-01

Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. In the last decade, over 50,000 residents lost their lives, commonly as a result of building failures in seismic events. The Cappadocia region is one of the most important touristic sites in Turkey. At the same time, the region has been included to the Word Heritage List by UNESCO at 1985 due to its natural, historical and cultural values. The region is undesirably affected by several environmental conditions, which are subjected in many previous studies. But, there are limited studies about the seismic evaluation of the region. Some of the important historical and cultural heritage sites are: Goreme Open Air Museum, Uchisar Castle, Ortahisar Castle, Derinkuyu Underground City and Ihlara Valley. According to seismic hazard zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement these heritage sites fall in Zone III, Zone IV and Zone V. This map show peak ground acceleration or 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for bedrock. In this connection, seismic hazard assessment of these heritage sites has to be evaluated. In this study, seismic hazard calculations are performed both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with local site conditions. A catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is prepared and used in this study. The seismic sources have been identified for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at bed rock level is calculated for different seismic sources using available attenuation relationship formula applicable to Turkey. The result of the present study reveals that the seismic hazard at these sites is closely matching with the Seismic Zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement. Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Probabilistic Approach, Deterministic Approach, Historical Heritage, Cappadocia.

Evaluation of seismic design spectrum based on UHS implementing fourth-generation seismic hazard maps of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ali; Hasan, Rafiq; Pekau, Oscar A.

2016-12-01

Two recent developments have come into the forefront with reference to updating the seismic design provisions for codes: (1) publication of new seismic hazard maps for Canada by the Geological Survey of Canada, and (2) emergence of the concept of new spectral format outdating the conventional standardized spectral format. The fourth -generation seismic hazard maps are based on enriched seismic data, enhanced knowledge of regional seismicity and improved seismic hazard modeling techniques. Therefore, the new maps are more accurate and need to incorporate into the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code (CHBDC) for its next edition similar to its building counterpart National Building Code of Canada (NBCC). In fact, the code writers expressed similar intentions with comments in the commentary of CHBCD 2006. During the process of updating codes, NBCC, and AASHTO Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington (2009) lowered the probability level from 10 to 2% and 10 to 5%, respectively. This study has brought five sets of hazard maps corresponding to 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years developed by the GSC under investigation. To have a sound statistical inference, 389 Canadian cities are selected. This study shows the implications of the changes of new hazard maps on the design process (i.e., extent of magnification or reduction of the design forces).

Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

2016-04-01

Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

2013-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Armenia and its Surrounding Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E.; Shen-Tu, B.; Mahdyiar, M.; Karakhanyan, A.; Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Gee, R. C.

2017-12-01

The Republic of Armenia is located within the central part of a large, 800 km wide, intracontinental collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Active deformation occurs along numerous structures in the form of faulting, folding, and volcanism distributed throughout the entire zone from the Bitlis-Zargos suture belt to the Greater Caucasus Mountains and between the relatively rigid Back Sea and Caspian Sea blocks without any single structure that can be claimed as predominant. In recent years, significant work has been done on mapping active faults, compiling and reviewing historic and paleoseismological studies in the region, especially in Armenia; these recent research contributions have greatly improved our understanding of the seismogenic sources and their characteristics. In this study we performed a seismic hazard analysis for Armenia and its surrounding areas using the latest detailed geological and paleoseismological information on active faults, strain rates estimated from kinematic modeling of GPS data and all available historic earthquake data. The seismic source model uses a combination of characteristic earthquake and gridded seismicity models to take advantage of the detailed knowledge of the known faults while acknowledging the distributed deformation and regional tectonic environment of the collision zone. In addition, the fault model considers earthquake ruptures that include single and multi-segment or fault rupture scenarios with earthquakes that can rupture any part of a multiple segment fault zone. The ground motion model uses a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) selected from a pool of GMPEs based on the assessment of each GMPE against the available strong motion data in the region. The hazard is computed in the GEM's OpenQuake engine. We will present final hazard results and discuss the uncertainties associated with various input data and their impact on the hazard at various locations.

Seismicity and source spectra analysis in Salton Sea Geothermal Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Chen, X.

2016-12-01

The surge of "man-made" earthquakes in recent years has led to considerable concerns about the associated hazards. Improved monitoring of small earthquakes would significantly help understand such phenomena and the underlying physical mechanisms. In the Salton Sea Geothermal field in southern California, open access of a local borehole network provides a unique opportunity to better understand the seismicity characteristics, the related earthquake hazards, and the relationship with the geothermal system, tectonic faulting and other physical conditions. We obtain high-resolution earthquake locations in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, analyze characteristics of spatiotemporal isolated earthquake clusters, magnitude-frequency distributions and spatial variation of stress drops. The analysis reveals spatial coherent distributions of different types of clustering, b-value distributions, and stress drop distribution. The mixture type clusters (short-duration rapid bursts with high aftershock productivity) are predominately located within active geothermal field that correlate with high b-value, low stress drop microearthquake clouds, while regular aftershock sequences and swarms are distributed throughout the study area. The differences between earthquakes inside and outside of geothermal operation field suggest a possible way to distinguish directly induced seismicity due to energy operation versus typical seismic slip driven sequences. The spatial coherent b-value distribution enables in-situ estimation of probabilities for M≥3 earthquakes, and shows that the high large-magnitude-event (LME) probability zones with high stress drop are likely associated with tectonic faulting. The high stress drop in shallow (1-3 km) depth indicates the existence of active faults, while low stress drops near injection wells likely corresponds to the seismic response to fluid injection. I interpret the spatial variation of seismicity and source characteristics as the result of fluid circulation, the fracture network, and tectonic faulting.

Applications of the seismic hazard model of Italy: from a new building code to the L'Aquila trial against seismologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meletti, C.

2013-05-01

In 2003, a large national project fur updating the seismic hazard map and the seismic zoning in Italy started, according to the rules fixed by an Ordinance by Italian Prime Minister. New input elements for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were compiled: the earthquake catalogue, the seismogenic zonation, the catalogue completeness, a set of new attenuation relationships. The map of expected PGA on rock soil condition with 10% probability of exceedance is the new reference seismic hazard map for Italy (http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it). In the following, further 9 probabilities of exceedance and the uniform hazard spectra up to 2 seconds together with the disaggregation of the PGA was also released. A comprehensive seismic hazard model that fully describes the seismic hazard in Italy was then available, accessible by a webGis application (http://esse1-gis.mi.ingv.it/en.php). The detailed information make possible to change the approach for evaluating the proper seismic action for designing: from a zone-dependent approach (in Italy there were 4 seismic zones, each one with a single design spectrum) to a site-dependent approach: the design spectrum is now defined at each site of a grid of about 11000 points covering the whole national territory. The new building code becomes mandatory only after the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the first strong event in Italy after the release of the seismic hazard map. The large number of recordings and the values of the experienced accelerations suggested the comparisons between the recorded spectra and spectra defined in the seismic codes Even if such comparisons could be robust only after several consecutive 50-year periods of observation and in a probabilistic approach it is not a single observation that can validate or not the hazard estimate, some of the comparisons that can be undertaken between the observed ground motions and the hazard model used for the seismic code have been performed and have shown that the assumptions and modeling choices made in the Italian hazard study are in line with the observations, by considering different return period, the soil condition at the recording stations and the uncertainties of the model. A further application of Italian seismic hazard model is in the identification of buildings and factories struck by the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes to be investigated in order to determine if they were still safe or not. The law states that no safety check is needed if the construction experienced a shaking greater than 70% of the design acceleration expected at the site, without abandoning the elastic behavior. The ground motion values are evaluated from the shakemaps available (http://shakemap.rm.ingv.it) and the design accelerations derived from the Building Code, which is based on the reference Italian seismic hazard model. Finally, the national seismic hazard model was one the most debated element during the trial in L'Aquila against the seismologists, experts of Civil Protection Department, sentenced to six years in prison on charges of manslaughter, because, according to the judge, they underestimated the risk in the region, giving a wrong message to the people, before the strong 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.

Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

2016-01-01

We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

Evaluation of the Seismic Hazard in Venezuela with a revised seismic catalog that seeks for harmonization along the country borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rendon, H.; Alvarado, L.; Paolini, M.; Olbrich, F.; González, J.; Ascanio, W.

2013-05-01

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment is a complex endeavor that relies on the quality of the information that comes from different sources: the seismic catalog, active faults parameters, strain rates, etc. Having this in mind, during the last several months, the FUNVISIS seismic hazard group has been working on a review and update of the local data base that form the basis for a reliable PSHA calculation. In particular, the seismic catalog, which provides the necessary information that allows the evaluation of the critical b-value, which controls how seismic occurrence distributes with magnitude, has received particular attention. The seismic catalog is the result of the effort of several generations of researchers along the years; therefore, the catalog necessarily suffers from the lack of consistency, homogeneity and completeness for all ranges of magnitude over any seismic study area. Merging the FUNVISIS instrumental catalog with the ones obtained from international agencies, we present the work that we have been doing to produce a consistent seismic catalog that covers Venezuela entirely, with seismic events starting from 1910 until 2012, and report the magnitude of completeness for the different periods. Also, we present preliminary results on the Seismic Hazard evaluation that takes into account such instrumental catalog, the historical catalog, updated known fault geometries and its correspondent parameters, and the new seismic sources that have been defined accordingly. Within the spirit of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), all these efforts look for possible bridges with neighboring countries to establish consistent hazard maps across the borders.

3-D Simulation of Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Constraints from Offshore Structure and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, E. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Vidale, J. E.; Stone, I.; Nasser, M.; Stephenson, W. J.

2017-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone has a long history of M8 to M9 earthquakes, inferred from coastal subsidence, tsunami records, and submarine landslides. These megathrust earthquakes occur mostly offshore, and an improved characterization of the megathrust is critical for accurate seismic hazard assessment in the Pacific Northwest. We run numerical simulations of 50 magnitude 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust, using a 3-D velocity model based on geologic constraints and regional seismicity, as well as active and passive source seismic studies. We identify key parameters that control the intensity of ground shaking and resulting seismic hazard. Variations in the down-dip limit of rupture (e.g., extending rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone, compared to a completely offshore rupture) result in a 2-3x difference in peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the inland city of Seattle, Washington. Comparisons of our simulations to paleoseismic data suggest that rupture extending to the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) provides the best fit to estimates of coastal subsidence during previous Cascadia earthquakes, but further constraints on the down-dip limit from microseismicity, offshore geodetics, and paleoseismic evidence are needed. Similarly, our simulations demonstrate that coastal communities experience a four-fold increase in PGA depending upon their proximity to strong-motion-generating areas (i.e., high strength asperities) on the deeper portions of the megathrust. An improved understanding of the structure and rheology of the plate interface and accretionary wedge, and better detection of offshore seismicity, may allow us to forecast locations of these asperities during a future Cascadia earthquake. In addition to these parameters, the seismic velocity and attenuation structure offshore also strongly affects the resulting ground shaking. This work outlines the range of plausible ground motions from an M9 Cascadia earthquake, and highlights the importance of offshore studies for constraining critical parameters and seismic hazard in the Pacific Northwest.

Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

2009-04-01

Iran is a country located in a tectonic active belt and is prone to earthquake and related phenomena. In the recent years, several earthquakes caused many fatalities and damages to facilities, e.g. the Manjil (1990), Avaj (2002), Bam (2003) and Firuzabad-e-Kojur (2004) earthquakes. These earthquakes generated many landslides. For instance, catastrophic landslides triggered by the Manjil Earthquake (Ms = 7.7) in 1990 buried the village of Fatalak, killed more than 130 peoples and cut many important road and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. In general, earthquakes in Iran have been concentrated in two major zones with different seismicity characteristics: one is the region of Alborz and Central Iran and the other is the Zagros Orogenic Belt. Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose a time probabilistic approach for earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (2003), has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis of hazard estimates. This method consists in evaluating the recurrence of seismically induced slope failure conditions inferred from the Newmark's model. First, by adopting Arias Intensity to quantify seismic shaking and using different Arias attenuation relations for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros regions, well-established methods of seismic hazard assessment, based on the Cornell (1968) method, were employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 year). Then, following Jibson (1998), empirical formulae specifically developed for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros, were used to represent, according to the Newmark's model, the relation linking Newmark's displacement Dn to Arias intensity Ia and to slope critical acceleration ac. These formulae were employed to evaluate the slope critical acceleration (Ac)x for which a prefixed probability exists that seismic shaking would result in a Dn value equal to a threshold x whose exceedence would cause landslide triggering. The obtained ac values represent the minimum slope resistance required to keep the probability of seismic-landslide triggering within the prefixed value. In particular we calculated the spatial distribution of (Ac)x for x thresholds of 10 and 2 cm in order to represent triggering conditions for coherent slides (e.g., slumps, block slides, slow earth flows) and disrupted slides (e.g., rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches), respectively. Then we produced a probabilistic national map that shows the spatial distribution of (Ac)10 and (Ac)2, for a 10% probability of exceedence in 50 year, which is a significant level of hazard equal to that commonly used for building codes. The spatial distribution of the calculated (Ac)xvalues can be compared with the in situ actual ac values of specific slopes to estimate whether these slopes have a significant probability of failing under seismic action in the future. As example of possible application of this kind of time probabilistic map to hazard estimates, we compared the values obtained for the Manjil region with a GIS map providing spatial distribution of estimated ac values in the same region. The spatial distribution of slopes characterized by ac < (Ac)10 was then compared with the spatial distribution of the major landslides of coherent type triggered by the Manjil earthquake. This comparison provides indications on potential, problems and limits of the experimented approach for the study area. References Cornell, C.A., 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606. Del Gaudio V., Wasowski J., & Pierri P., 2003: An approach to time probabilistic evaluation of seismically-induced landslide hazard. Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 557-569. Jibson, R.W., E.L. Harp and J.A. Michael, 1998: A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps: an example from the Los Angeles, California, area, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-113, Golden, Colorado, 17 pp.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

2016-08-01

Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part-I. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 2002]. Not only holistic treatment of earthquake catalog and seismogenic zones has been performed, but also higher resolution in spatial distribution could be achieved. The COV maps have been provided with the strong ground-motion maps under various conditions to show the confidence in the results obtained. Results obtained in the present study would be helpful for risk assessment and other disaster mitigation-related studies.

Science should warn people of looming disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2014-05-01

Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of special knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, it appears that a few seismic hazard assessment programs and/or methodologies were tested appropriately against real observations before being endorsed for estimation of earthquake related risks. The fatal evidence and aftermath of the past decades prove that many of the existing internationally accepted methodologies are grossly misleading and are evidently unacceptable for any kind of responsible risk evaluation and knowledgeable disaster prevention. In contrast, the confirmed reliability of pattern recognition aimed at earthquake prone areas and times of increased probability, along with realistic earthquake scaling and scenario modeling, allow us to conclude that Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering this state-of-the-art knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophic events. In a lieu of seismic observations long enough for a reliable probabilistic assessment or a comprehensive physical theory of earthquake recurrence, pattern recognition applied to available geophysical and/or geological data sets remains a broad avenue to follow in seismic hazard forecast/prediction. Moreover, better understanding seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, progress to new approaches in assessing time-dependent seismic hazard based on multiscale analysis of seismic activity and reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction technique. The algorithms, which make use of multidisciplinary data available and account for fractal nature of earthquake distributions in space and time, have confirmed their reliability by durable statistical testing in the on-going regular real-time application lasted for more than 20 years. Geoscientists must initiate shifting the minds of community from pessimistic disbelieve in forecast/prediction products to optimistic challenging views on Hazard Predictability in space and time, so that not to repeat missed opportunities for disaster preparedness like it happen in advance the 2009 L'Aquila, M6.3 earthquake in Italy and the 2011, M9.0 mega-thrust off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku region in Japan.

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard mapping calculations. These hazard maps are in general agreement with previous maps for the Aegean, recognising the highest hazard in the Ionian Islands, Gulf of Corinth and Hellenic Arc. Peak Ground Accelerations for some sites in these regions reach as high as 500-600 cm s -2 using European/NGA attenuation models, and 400-500 cm s -2 using Greek attenuation models.

Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 M w 8.6 Indian Ocean Earthquake

DOE PAGES

Delorey, A. A.; Johnson, P. A.; Chao, K.; ...

2015-10-02

Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth’s stress state. Earth’s stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. Here we present that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust inmore » cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth’s elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards.« less

Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 M w 8.6 Indian Ocean Earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delorey, A. A.; Johnson, P. A.; Chao, K.

Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth’s stress state. Earth’s stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. Here we present that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust inmore » cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth’s elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards.« less

Cascading elastic perturbation in Japan due to the 2012 Mw 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake

PubMed Central

Delorey, Andrew A.; Chao, Kevin; Obara, Kazushige; Johnson, Paul A.

2015-01-01

Since the discovery of extensive earthquake triggering occurring in response to the 1992 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.3 Landers earthquake, it is now well established that seismic waves from earthquakes can trigger other earthquakes, tremor, slow slip, and pore pressure changes. Our contention is that earthquake triggering is one manifestation of a more widespread elastic disturbance that reveals information about Earth’s stress state. Earth’s stress state is central to our understanding of both natural and anthropogenic-induced crustal processes. We show that seismic waves from distant earthquakes may perturb stresses and frictional properties on faults and elastic moduli of the crust in cascading fashion. Transient dynamic stresses place crustal material into a metastable state during which the material recovers through a process termed slow dynamics. This observation of widespread, dynamically induced elastic perturbation, including systematic migration of offshore seismicity, strain transients, and velocity transients, presents a new characterization of Earth’s elastic system that will advance our understanding of plate tectonics, seismicity, and seismic hazards. PMID:26601289

Mini-Sosie high-resolution seismic method aids hazards studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.; Shedlock, K.M.; Pratt, T.L.; Williams, R.A.

1992-01-01

The Mini-Sosie high-resolution seismic method has been effective in imaging shallow-structure and stratigraphic features that aid in seismic-hazard and neotectonic studies. The method is not an alternative to Vibroseis acquisition for large-scale studies. However, it has two major advantages over Vibroseis as it is being used by the USGS in its seismic-hazards program. First, the sources are extremely portable and can be used in both rural and urban environments. Second, the shifting-and-summation process during acquisition improves the signal-to-noise ratio and cancels out seismic noise sources such as cars and pedestrians. -from Authors

Marine forearc tectonics in the unbroken segment of the Northern Chile seismic gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geersen, J.; Behrmann, J.; Ranero, C. R.; Klaucke, I.; Kopp, H.; Lange, D.; Barckhausen, U.; Reichert, C. J.; Diaz-Naveas, J.

2016-12-01

While clearly occurring within the well-defined Northern Chile seismic gap, the 2014 Mw. 8.1 Iquique Earthquake only ruptured part of this gap, leaving large and possibly highly coupled areas untouched. These non-ruptured areas now may pose an elevated seismic hazard due to the transfer of stresses resulting from the 2014 rupture. Here we use recently collected multibeam bathymetric data, covering 90% of the North Chilean marine forearc, in combination with unpublished seismic reflection images to derive a tectonic map of the marine forearc in the unbroken segment of the seismic gap. In the entire study area we find evidence for widespread normal faulting. Seaward dipping normal faults locally extend close to the deformation front at the deep-sea trench under 8 km of water. Similar normal faults on the lower slope are neither observed further north (2014 Iquique earthquake area) nor further south (2007 Tocopilla earthquake area). On the upper continental slope, some of the normal faults dip towards the continent, defining N-S trending ridges that can be traced over tens of kilometers. The spatial variations in normal faulting do not correlate with obvious changes in the structural and tectonic setting of the subduction zone (e.g. plate convergence rate and direction, trench sediment thickness, subducting plate roughness). Thus, the permanent deformation recorded in the spatial distribution of faults may hold crucial information about the long-term seismic behavior of the Northern Chile seismic gap over multiple earthquake cycles. Although the structural interpretations cannot directly be translated into seismic hazard, the tectonic map serves to better understand deformation in the marine forearc in relation to the seismic cycle, historic seismicity, and the spatial distribution of plate-coupling.

Using strain rates to forecast seismic hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Eileen

2017-01-01

One essential component in forecasting seismic hazards is observing the gradual accumulation of tectonic strain accumulation along faults before this strain is suddenly released as earthquakes. Typically, seismic hazard models are based on geologic estimates of slip rates along faults and historical records of seismic activity, neither of which records actively accumulating strain. But this strain can be estimated by geodesy: the precise measurement of tiny position changes of Earth’s surface, obtained from GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), or a variety of other instruments.

CORSSA: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.; Wiemer, Stefan

2010-01-01

Statistical seismology is the application of rigorous statistical methods to earthquake science with the goal of improving our knowledge of how the earth works. Within statistical seismology there is a strong emphasis on the analysis of seismicity data in order to improve our scientific understanding of earthquakes and to improve the evaluation and testing of earthquake forecasts, earthquake early warning, and seismic hazards assessments. Given the societal importance of these applications, statistical seismology must be done well. Unfortunately, a lack of educational resources and available software tools make it difficult for students and new practitioners to learn about this discipline. The goal of the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA) is to promote excellence in statistical seismology by providing the knowledge and resources necessary to understand and implement the best practices, so that the reader can apply these methods to their own research. This introduction describes the motivation for and vision of CORRSA. It also describes its structure and contents.

Recent Progress in Understanding Natural-Hazards-Generated TEC Perturbations: Measurements and Modeling Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Langley, R. B.

2015-12-01

Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface.We will show examples for early detection of natural hazards generated ionospheric signatures using ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will also discuss recent results from the U.S. Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation Network (READI) exercises utilizing our algorithms. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage. It is also expected that ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of existing natural hazards warning systems.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE PAGES

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

2016-12-28

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delorey, Andrew; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Johnson, Paul

2017-01-01

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-03-28

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes at sites in parts of California.

Seismic and deformation precursory to the small explosions of Marapi Volcano, West Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, D.; Patria, C.; Gunawan, H.; Taisne, B.; Nurfiani, D.; Avila, E. J.

2015-12-01

Marapi Volcano is one of the active volcanoes of Indonesia located near the city of Bukittinggi, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Its activity is characterized by small vulcanian explosions with occasional VEI 2 producing tephra and pyroclastic flows. Due to its activity, it is being monitored by Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM). Four seismic stations consists of 2 broadband and 2 short period instruments have been established since 2009. In collaboration with CVGHM, Earth Observatory of Singapore added 5 seismic stations around the volcano in 2014, initially with short period instruments but later upgraded to broadbands. We added one tilt station at the summit of Marapi. These seismic and tilt stations are telemetered by 5.8GHz radio to Marapi Observatory Post where data are archived and displayed for Marapi observers for their daily volcanic activity monitoring work. We also archive the data in the EOS and CVGHM main offices. Here we are presenting examples of seismic and deformation data from Marapi prior, during, and after the vulcanian explosion. Our study attempt to understand the state of the volcano based on monitoring data and in order to enable us to better estimate the hazards associated with the future eruptions of this or similar volcano.

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2008-12-01

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

44 CFR 361.3 - Project description.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act is to develop, in areas of seismic risk, improved understanding... retrofitting existing structures that pose threats to life or would suffer major damage in the event of a... (xii) Organization and management. (3) Public awareness/earthquake education activities are designed to...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a nuclear power plant site in southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Andréia Abreu Diniz; Assumpção, Marcelo; Bommer, Julian J.; Drouet, Stéphane; Riccomini, Claudio; Prates, Carlos L. M.

2018-05-01

A site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for the only nuclear power plant site in Brazil, located 130 km southwest of Rio de Janeiro at Angra dos Reis. Logic trees were developed for both the seismic source characterisation and ground-motion characterisation models, in both cases seeking to capture the appreciable ranges of epistemic uncertainty with relatively few branches. This logic-tree structure allowed the hazard calculations to be performed efficiently while obtaining results that reflect the inevitable uncertainty in long-term seismic hazard assessment in this tectonically stable region. An innovative feature of the study is an additional seismic source zone added to capture the potential contributions of characteristics earthquake associated with geological faults in the region surrounding the coastal site.

Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berge-Thierry, C.; Hollender, F.; Guyonnet-Benaize, C.; Baumont, D.; Ameri, G.; Bollinger, L.

2017-09-01

Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety in France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule ( Règle Fondamentale de Sûreté) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and on the ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules for nuclear civil engineering structures. After the 2011 Tohohu earthquake, nuclear operators worldwide were asked to estimate the ability of their facilities to sustain extreme seismic loads. The French licensees then defined the `hard core seismic levels', which are higher than those considered for design or re-assessment of the safety of a facility. These were initially established on a deterministic basis, and they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. The appreciation and propagation of uncertainties when assessing seismic hazard in France have changed considerably over the past 15 years. This evolution provided the motivation for the present article, the objectives of which are threefold: (1) to provide a description of the current practices in France to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety; (2) to discuss and highlight the sources of uncertainties and their treatment; and (3) to use a specific case study to illustrate how extended source modeling can help to constrain the key assumptions or parameters that impact upon seismic hazard assessment. This article discusses in particular seismic source characterization, strong ground motion prediction, and maximal magnitude constraints, according to the practice of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Due to increases in strong motion databases in terms of the number and quality of the records in their metadata and the uncertainty characterization, several recently published empirical ground motion prediction models are eligible for seismic hazard assessment in France. We show that propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is feasible in a deterministic approach, as in a probabilistic way. Assessment of seismic hazard in France in the framework of the safety of nuclear facilities should consider these recent advances. In this sense, the opening of discussions with all of the stakeholders in France to update the reference documents (i.e., RFS 2001-01; ASN/2/01 Guide) appears appropriate in the short term.

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap.

PubMed

Géli, L; Henry, P; Grall, C; Tary, J-B; Lomax, A; Batsi, E; Riboulot, V; Cros, E; Gürbüz, C; Işık, S E; Sengör, A M C; Le Pichon, X; Ruffine, L; Dupré, S; Thomas, Y; Kalafat, D; Bayrakci, G; Coutellier, Q; Regnier, T; Westbrook, G; Saritas, H; Çifçi, G; Çağatay, M N; Özeren, M S; Görür, N; Tryon, M; Bohnhoff, M; Gasperini, L; Klingelhoefer, F; Scalabrin, C; Augustin, J-M; Embriaco, D; Marinaro, G; Frugoni, F; Monna, S; Etiope, G; Favali, P; Bécel, A

2018-05-01

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the "Istanbul seismic gap") has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25 th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5-5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain.

CyberShake: Running Seismic Hazard Workflows on Distributed HPC Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Graves, R. W.; Gill, D.; Olsen, K. B.; Milner, K. R.; Yu, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2013-12-01

As part of its program of earthquake system science research, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed a simulation platform, CyberShake, to perform physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using 3D deterministic wave propagation simulations. CyberShake performs PSHA by simulating a tensor-valued wavefield of Strain Green Tensors, and then using seismic reciprocity to calculate synthetic seismograms for about 415,000 events per site of interest. These seismograms are processed to compute ground motion intensity measures, which are then combined with probabilities from an earthquake rupture forecast to produce a site-specific hazard curve. Seismic hazard curves for hundreds of sites in a region can be used to calculate a seismic hazard map, representing the seismic hazard for a region. We present a recently completed PHSA study in which we calculated four CyberShake seismic hazard maps for the Southern California area to compare how CyberShake hazard results are affected by different SGT computational codes (AWP-ODC and AWP-RWG) and different community velocity models (Community Velocity Model - SCEC (CVM-S4) v11.11 and Community Velocity Model - Harvard (CVM-H) v11.9). We present our approach to running workflow applications on distributed HPC resources, including systems without support for remote job submission. We show how our approach extends the benefits of scientific workflows, such as job and data management, to large-scale applications on Track 1 and Leadership class open-science HPC resources. We used our distributed workflow approach to perform CyberShake Study 13.4 on two new NSF open-science HPC computing resources, Blue Waters and Stampede, executing over 470 million tasks to calculate physics-based hazard curves for 286 locations in the Southern California region. For each location, we calculated seismic hazard curves with two different community velocity models and two different SGT codes, resulting in over 1100 hazard curves. We will report on the performance of this CyberShake study, four times larger than previous studies. Additionally, we will examine the challenges we face applying these workflow techniques to additional open-science HPC systems and discuss whether our workflow solutions continue to provide value to our large-scale PSHA calculations.

Considering the ranges of uncertainties in the New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Germany - Version 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunthal, Gottfried; Stromeyer, Dietrich; Bosse, Christian; Cotton, Fabrice; Bindi, Dino

2017-04-01

The seismic load parameters for the upcoming National Annex to the Eurocode 8 result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering . This 2016 version of hazard assessment for Germany as target area was based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters into the approach and the provision of a rational framework for facilitating the uncertainties in a transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model represents significant improvements; i.e. it is based on updated and extended databases, comprehensive ranges of models, robust methods and a selection of a set of ground motion prediction equations of their latest generation. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. In particular, seismic load parameters were calculated for rock conditions with a vS30 of 800 ms-1 for three hazard levels (10%, 5% and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) in form of, e.g., uniform hazard spectra (UHS) based on 19 sprectral periods in the range of 0.01 - 3s, seismic hazard maps for spectral response accelerations for different spectral periods or for macroseismic intensities. The developed hazard model consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed to capture epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities. The computation scheme enables the sound calculation of the mean and any quantile of required seismic load parameters. Mean, median and 84th percentiles of load parameters were provided together with the full calculation model to clearly illustrate the uncertainties of such a probabilistic assessment for a region of a low-to-moderate level of seismicity. The regional variations of these uncertainties (e.g. ratios between the mean and median hazard estimations) were analyzed and discussed.

Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

2015-04-01

Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But, how many cities, villages, metropolitan areas etc. in seismic regions are constructed on rock? Most of them are located on soil deposits? A soil is of basic type sand or gravel (termed coarse soils), silt or clay (termed fine soils) etc. The effect on nonlinearity is very large. For example, if we maintain the same spectral amplification factor (SAF=5.8942) as for relatively strong earthquake on May 3,1990(MW=6.4),then at Bacǎu seismic station for Vrancea earthquake on May 30,1990 (MW =6.9) the peak acceleration has to be a*max =0.154g and the actual recorded was only, amax =0.135g(-14.16%). Also, for Vrancea earthquake on August 30,1986(MW=7.1),the peak acceleration has to be a*max = 0.107g instead of real value recorded of 0.0736 g(- 45.57%). There are many data for more than 60 seismic stations. There is a strong nonlinear dependence of SAF with earthquake magnitude in each site. The authors are coming with an alternative approach called "real spectral amplification factors" instead of GMPE for all extra-Carpathian area where all cities and villages are located on soil deposits. Key words: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard; Uncertainties; Nonlinear seismology; Spectral amplification factors(SAF).

East Meets West: An Earthquake in India Helps Hazard Assessment in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Although geographically distant, the State of Gujarat in India bears many geological similarities to the Mississippi Valley in the Central United States. The Mississippi Valley contains the New Madrid seismic zone that, during the winter of 1811-1812, produced the three largest historical earthquakes ever in the continental United States and remains the most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Large damaging earthquakes are rare in ‘intraplate’ settings like New Madrid and Gujarat, far from the boundaries of the world’s great tectonic plates. Long-lasting evidence left by these earthquakes is subtle (fig. 1). Thus, each intraplate earthquake provides unique opportunities to make huge advances in our ability to assess and understand the hazards posed by such events.

Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.; Sullivan, Robin S.

2010-09-24

The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. The review includes all natural phenomena hazards with the exception of seismic/earthquake hazards, which are being addressed under a separate effort. It was determined that existing non-seismic NPH assessments are consistent with current design methodology and site specific data.

Assessing the need for an update of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a SSHAC Level 1 study and the Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology

DOE PAGES

Payne, Suzette J.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Coppersmith, Ryan; ...

2017-08-23

A key decision for nuclear facilities is evaluating the need for an update of an existing seismic hazard analysis in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. We introduce the newly developed risk-informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Review Methodology (referred to as the SHPRM) and present how a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed in an implementation of this new methodology. The SHPRM offers a defensible and documented approach that considers both the changes in seismic hazard and engineering-based risk informationmore » of an existing nuclear facility to assess the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The SHPRM has seven evaluation criteria that are employed at specific analysis, decision, and comparison points which are applied to seismic design categories established for nuclear facilities in United States. The SHPRM is implemented using a SSHAC Level 1 study performed for the Idaho National Laboratory, USA. The implementation focuses on the first six of the seven evaluation criteria of the SHPRM which are all provided from the SSHAC Level 1 PSHA. Finally, to illustrate outcomes of the SHPRM that do not lead to the need for an update and those that do, the example implementations of the SHPRM are performed for nuclear facilities that have target performance goals expressed as the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at 1x10 -4, 4x10 -5 and 1x10 -5.« less

Assessing the need for an update of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a SSHAC Level 1 study and the Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Suzette J.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Coppersmith, Ryan

A key decision for nuclear facilities is evaluating the need for an update of an existing seismic hazard analysis in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. We introduce the newly developed risk-informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Review Methodology (referred to as the SHPRM) and present how a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed in an implementation of this new methodology. The SHPRM offers a defensible and documented approach that considers both the changes in seismic hazard and engineering-based risk informationmore » of an existing nuclear facility to assess the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The SHPRM has seven evaluation criteria that are employed at specific analysis, decision, and comparison points which are applied to seismic design categories established for nuclear facilities in United States. The SHPRM is implemented using a SSHAC Level 1 study performed for the Idaho National Laboratory, USA. The implementation focuses on the first six of the seven evaluation criteria of the SHPRM which are all provided from the SSHAC Level 1 PSHA. Finally, to illustrate outcomes of the SHPRM that do not lead to the need for an update and those that do, the example implementations of the SHPRM are performed for nuclear facilities that have target performance goals expressed as the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at 1x10 -4, 4x10 -5 and 1x10 -5.« less

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Seismic Hazard analysis of Adjaria Region in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorjiashvili, Nato; Elashvili, Mikheil

2014-05-01

The most commonly used approach to determining seismic-design loads for engineering projects is probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). The primary output from a PSHA is a hazard curve showing the variation of a selected ground-motion parameter, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA), against the annual frequency of exceedance (or its reciprocal, return period). The design value is the ground-motion level that corresponds to a preselected design return period. For many engineering projects, such as standard buildings and typical bridges, the seismic loading is taken from the appropriate seismic-design code, the basis of which is usually a PSHA. For more important engineering projects— where the consequences of failure are more serious, such as dams and chemical plants—it is more usual to obtain the seismic-design loads from a site-specific PSHA, in general, using much longer return periods than those governing code based design. Calculation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard was performed using Software CRISIS2007 by Ordaz, M., Aguilar, A., and Arboleda, J., Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, Mexico. CRISIS implements a classical probabilistic seismic hazard methodology where seismic sources can be modelled as points, lines and areas. In the case of area sources, the software offers an integration procedure that takes advantage of a triangulation algorithm used for seismic source discretization. This solution improves calculation efficiency while maintaining a reliable description of source geometry and seismicity. Additionally, supplementary filters (e.g. fix a sitesource distance that excludes from calculation sources at great distance) allow the program to balance precision and efficiency during hazard calculation. Earthquake temporal occurrence is assumed to follow a Poisson process, and the code facilitates two types of MFDs: a truncated exponential Gutenberg-Richter [1944] magnitude distribution and a characteristic magnitude distribution [Youngs and Coppersmith, 1985]. Notably, the software can deal with uncertainty in the seismicity input parameters such as maximum magnitude value. CRISIS offers a set of built-in GMPEs, as well as the possibility of defining new ones by providing information in a tabular format. Our study shows that in case of Ajaristkali HPP study area, significant contribution to Seismic Hazard comes from local sources with quite low Mmax values, thus these two attenuation lows give us quite different PGA and SA values.

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

2018-01-01

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

Increasing seismicity in the U. S. midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellsworth, William L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Mueller, Charles S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Calais, Eric

2015-01-01

Earthquake activity in parts of the central United States has increased dramatically in recent years. The space-time distribution of the increased seismicity, as well as numerous published case studies, indicates that the increase is of anthropogenic origin, principally driven by injection of wastewater coproduced with oil and gas from tight formations. Enhanced oil recovery and long-term production also contribute to seismicity at a few locations. Preliminary hazard models indicate that areas experiencing the highest rate of earthquakes in 2014 have a short-term (one-year) hazard comparable to or higher than the hazard in the source region of tectonic earthquakes in the New Madrid and Charleston seismic zones.

Geological Investigation Program for the Site of a New Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenkorn, András; Trosits, Dalma; Chikán, Géza; János Katona, Tamás

2015-04-01

Comprehensive site evalaution program is implemented for the new Nuclear Power Plant to be constructed at Paks site in Hungary with the aim of confirmation of acceptability of the site and definition of site-related design basis data. Most extensive part of this program is to investigate geological-tectonical features of the site with particular aim on the assessment of the capability of faults at and around the site, characterization of site seismic hazard, and definition of the design basis earthquake. A brief description of the scope and methodology of the geological, seismological, geophysical, geotechnical and hydrogeological investigations will be given on the poster. Main focus of the presentation is to show the graded structure and extent of the geological investigations that follow the needs and scale of the geological modeling, starting with the site and its vicinity, as well as on the near regional and the regional scale. Geological inverstigations includes several boreholes up-to the base-rock, plenty of boreholes discovering the Pannonian and large number of shallow boreholes for investigation of more recent development. The planning of the geological investigations is based on the 3D seismic survey performed around the site, that is complemented by shallow-seimic survey at and in the vicinity of the site. The 3D geophysical imaging provides essential geodynamic information to assess the capability of near site faults and for the seismic hazard analysis, as well as for the hydrogeological modeling. The planned seismic survey gives a unique dataset for understanding the spatial relationship between individual fault segments. Planning of the research (trenching, etc.) for paleoseismic manifestations is also based on the 3D seismic survey. The seismic survey and other geophysical data (including data of space geodesy) allow the amendment of the understanding and the model of the tectonic evolution of the area and geological events. As it is known from earlier studies, seismic sources in the near regional area are the dominating contributors to the site seimic hazard. Therefore a 3D geological model will be developed for the 50 km region around the site in order to consider different geological scenarios. Site-scale investigations are aimed on the characterization of local geotechnical and hydrogeological conditions. The geotechnical investigations provide data for the evaluation of site response, i.e. the free-field ground motion response spectra, assessment of the liquefaction hazard and foundation design. Important element of the hydrogeological survey is numerical groundwater modeling. The aim of hydrogeological modeling is the summary of hydrogeological data in a numeric system, the description, simulation of underground water flow and transport conditions.

Exploring Hawaiian volcanism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poland, Michael P.; Okubo, Paul G.; Hon, Ken

2013-01-01

In 1912 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Thomas A. Jaggar Jr. on the island of Hawaii. Driven by the devastation he observed while investigating the volcanic disasters of 1902 at Montagne Pelée in the Caribbean, Jaggar conducted a worldwide search and decided that Hawai‘i provided an excellent natural laboratory for systematic study of earthquake and volcano processes toward better understanding of seismic and volcanic hazards. In the 100 years since HVO’s founding, surveillance and investigation of Hawaiian volcanoes have spurred advances in volcano and seismic monitoring techniques, extended scientists’ understanding of eruptive activity and processes, and contributed to development of global theories about hot spots and mantle plumes.

Exploring Hawaiian Volcanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, Michael P.; Okubo, Paul G.; Hon, Ken

2013-02-01

In 1912 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Thomas A. Jaggar Jr. on the island of Hawaii. Driven by the devastation he observed while investigating the volcanic disasters of 1902 at Montagne Pelée in the Caribbean, Jaggar conducted a worldwide search and decided that Hawai`i provided an excellent natural laboratory for systematic study of earthquake and volcano processes toward better understanding of seismic and volcanic hazards. In the 100 years since HVO's founding, surveillance and investigation of Hawaiian volcanoes have spurred advances in volcano and seismic monitoring techniques, extended scientists' understanding of eruptive activity and processes, and contributed to development of global theories about hot spots and mantle plumes.

New Intensity Attenuation in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Tibaldi, A.; Bonali, F.; Gogoladze, Z.; Kvavadze, N.; Kvedelidze, I.

2016-12-01

In seismic-prone zones, increase of urbanization and infrastructures in turn produces increase of seismic risk that is mainly related to: the level of seismic hazard itself, the seismic resistance of dwelling houses, and many other factors. The relevant objectives of the present work is to improve the regional seismic hazard maps of Georgia, by implementing state-of-the art probabilistic seismic hazard assessment techniques and outputs from recent national and international collaborations. Seismic zoning is the identification of zones of similar levels of earthquake hazard. With reference to seismic zoning by ground motion assessment, the shaking intensity essentially depends on i) regional seismicity, ii) attenuation of ground motion with distance, iii) local site effects on ground motion. In the last decade, seismic hazard assessment is presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), or other recorded parameters. But there are very limited strong motion dataset in Georgia. Furthermore, vulnerability of buildings still is estimated for intensity, and there are no information about correlation between the distribution of ground motion recorded parameters and damage. So, macroseimic Intensity is still a very important parameter for strong ground motion evaluation. In the present work, we calibrated intensity prediction equations (IPE) for the Georgian dataset based on about 78 reviewed earthquakes. Metadata for Intensity (MSK 64 scale) were constrained and predictionequations for various types of distance (epicentral and hypocentral distance, Joyner-Boore distance, closest distance to the fault rupture plane) were calibrated. Relations between intensity and PGA values were derived. For this we used hybrid-empirical ground motion equation derived for Georgia and run scenario earthquakes for events with macroseismic data.

A new approach to geographic partitioning of probabilistic seismic hazard using seismic source distance with earthquake extreme and perceptibility statistics: an application to the southern Balkan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayliss, T. J.

2016-02-01

The southeastern European cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki are explored as example site-specific scenarios by geographically zoning their individual localized seismic sources based on the highest probabilities of magnitude exceedance. This is with the aim of determining the major components contributing to each city's seismic hazard. Discrete contributions from the selected input earthquake catalogue are investigated to determine those areas that dominate each city's prevailing seismic hazard with respect to magnitude and source-to-site distance. This work is based on an earthquake catalogue developed and described in a previously published paper by the author and components of a magnitude probability density function. Binned magnitude and distance classes are defined using a joint magnitude-distance distribution. The prevailing seismicity to each city-as defined by a child data set extracted from the parent earthquake catalogue for each city considered-is divided into distinct constrained data bins of small discrete magnitude and source-to-site distance intervals. These are then used to describe seismic hazard in terms of uni-variate modal values; that is, M* and D* which are the modal magnitude and modal source-to-site distance in each city's local historical seismicity. This work highlights that Sofia's dominating seismic hazard-that is, the modal magnitudes possessing the highest probabilities of occurrence-is located in zones confined to two regions at 60-80 km and 170-180 km from this city, for magnitude intervals of 5.75-6.00 Mw and 6.00-6.25 Mw respectively. Similarly, Thessaloniki appears prone to highest levels of hazard over a wider epicentral distance interval, from 80 to 200 km in the moment magnitude range 6.00-6.25 Mw.

Kernel Smoothing Methods for Non-Poissonian Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

For almost fifty years, the mainstay of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been the methodology developed by Cornell, which assumes that earthquake occurrence is a Poisson process, and that the spatial distribution of epicentres can be represented by a set of polygonal source zones, within which seismicity is uniform. Based on Vere-Jones' use of kernel smoothing methods for earthquake forecasting, these methods were adapted in 1994 by the author for application to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. There is no need for ambiguous boundaries of polygonal source zones, nor for the hypothesis of time independence of earthquake sequences. In Europe, there are many regions where seismotectonic zones are not well delineated, and where there is a dynamic stress interaction between events, so that they cannot be described as independent. From the Amatrice earthquake of 24 August, 2016, the subsequent damaging earthquakes in Central Italy over months were not independent events. Removing foreshocks and aftershocks is not only an ill-defined task, it has a material effect on seismic hazard computation. Because of the spatial dispersion of epicentres, and the clustering of magnitudes for the largest events in a sequence, which might all be around magnitude 6, the specific event causing the highest ground motion can vary from one site location to another. Where significant active faults have been clearly identified geologically, they should be modelled as individual seismic sources. The remaining background seismicity should be modelled as non-Poissonian using statistical kernel smoothing methods. This approach was first applied for seismic hazard analysis at a UK nuclear power plant two decades ago, and should be included within logic-trees for future probabilistic seismic hazard at critical installations within Europe. In this paper, various salient European applications are given.

Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertito, Vincenzo; Zollo, Aldo

2011-08-01

In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982-1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.

Gravitational body forces focus North American intraplate earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levandowski, William Brower; Zellman, Mark; Briggs, Richard

2017-01-01

Earthquakes far from tectonic plate boundaries generally exploit ancient faults, but not all intraplate faults are equally active. The North American Great Plains exemplify such intraplate earthquake localization, with both natural and induced seismicity generally clustered in discrete zones. Here we use seismic velocity, gravity and topography to generate a 3D lithospheric density model of the region; subsequent finite-element modelling shows that seismicity focuses in regions of high-gravity-derived deviatoric stress. Furthermore, predicted principal stress directions generally align with those observed independently in earthquake moment tensors and borehole breakouts. Body forces therefore appear to control the state of stress and thus the location and style of intraplate earthquakes in the central United States with no influence from mantle convection or crustal weakness necessary. These results show that mapping where gravitational body forces encourage seismicity is crucial to understanding and appraising intraplate seismic hazard.

Gravitational body forces focus North American intraplate earthquakes

PubMed Central

Levandowski, Will; Zellman, Mark; Briggs, Rich

2017-01-01

Earthquakes far from tectonic plate boundaries generally exploit ancient faults, but not all intraplate faults are equally active. The North American Great Plains exemplify such intraplate earthquake localization, with both natural and induced seismicity generally clustered in discrete zones. Here we use seismic velocity, gravity and topography to generate a 3D lithospheric density model of the region; subsequent finite-element modelling shows that seismicity focuses in regions of high-gravity-derived deviatoric stress. Furthermore, predicted principal stress directions generally align with those observed independently in earthquake moment tensors and borehole breakouts. Body forces therefore appear to control the state of stress and thus the location and style of intraplate earthquakes in the central United States with no influence from mantle convection or crustal weakness necessary. These results show that mapping where gravitational body forces encourage seismicity is crucial to understanding and appraising intraplate seismic hazard. PMID:28211459

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Comparing Low-Frequency Earthquakes During Triggered and Ambient Tremor in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado Lara, F., Sr.; Ledezma, C., Sr.

2014-12-01

In South America, larger magnitude seismic events originate in the subduction zone between the Nazca and Continental plates, as opposed to crustal events. Crustal seismic events are important in areas very close to active fault lines; however, seismic hazard analyses incorporate crust events related to a maximum distance from the site under study. In order to use crustal events as part of a seismic hazard analysis, it is necessary to use the attenuation relationships which represent the seismic behavior of the site under study. Unfortunately, in South America the amount of compiled crustal event historical data is not yet sufficient to generate a firm regional attenuation relationship. In the absence of attenuation relationships for crustal earthquakes in the region, the conventional approach is to use attenuation relationships from other regions which have a large amount of compiled data and which have similar seismic conditions to the site under study. This practice permits the development of seismic hazard analysis work with a certain margin of accuracy. In South America, in the engineering practice, new generation attenuation relationships (NGA-W) are used among other alternatives in order to incorporate the effect of crustal events in a seismic hazard analysis. In 2014, the NGA-W Version 2 (NGA-W2) was presented with a database containing information from Taiwan, Turkey, Iran, USA, Mexico, Japan, and Alaska. This paper examines whether it is acceptable to utilize the NGA-W2 in seismic hazard analysis in South America. A comparison between response spectrums of the seismic risk prepared in accordance with NGA-W2 and actual response spectrums of crustal events from Argentina is developed in order to support the examination. The seismic data were gathered from equipment installed in the cities of Santiago, Chile and Mendoza, Argentina.

Revision of the Applicability of the NGA's in South America, Chile - Argentina.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado Lara, F., Sr.; Ledezma, C., Sr.

2015-12-01

In South America, larger magnitude seismic events originate in the subduction zone between the Nazca and Continental plates, as opposed to crustal events. Crustal seismic events are important in areas very close to active fault lines; however, seismic hazard analyses incorporate crust events related to a maximum distance from the site under study. In order to use crustal events as part of a seismic hazard analysis, it is necessary to use the attenuation relationships which represent the seismic behavior of the site under study. Unfortunately, in South America the amount of compiled crustal event historical data is not yet sufficient to generate a firm regional attenuation relationship. In the absence of attenuation relationships for crustal earthquakes in the region, the conventional approach is to use attenuation relationships from other regions which have a large amount of compiled data and which have similar seismic conditions to the site under study. This practice permits the development of seismic hazard analysis work with a certain margin of accuracy. In South America, in the engineering practice, new generation attenuation relationships (NGA-W) are used among other alternatives in order to incorporate the effect of crustal events in a seismic hazard analysis. In 2014, the NGA-W Version 2 (NGA-W2) was presented with a database containing information from Taiwan, Turkey, Iran, USA, Mexico, Japan, and Alaska. This paper examines whether it is acceptable to utilize the NGA-W2 in seismic hazard analysis in South America. A comparison between response spectrums of the seismic risk prepared in accordance with NGA-W2 and actual response spectrums of crustal events from Argentina is developed in order to support the examination. The seismic data were gathered from equipment installed in the cities of Santiago, Chile and Mendoza, Argentina.

Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2006-01-01

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but scientists can forecast how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Seismic hazard maps provide one way of conveying such forecasts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces seismic hazard maps for the Nation, is now engaged in developing more detailed maps for vulnerable urban areas. The first set of these maps is now available for Memphis, Tennessee.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Robert; Jordan, Thomas H.; Callaghan, Scott; Deelman, Ewa; Field, Edward; Juve, Gideon; Kesselman, Carl; Maechling, Philip; Mehta, Gaurang; Milner, Kevin; Okaya, David; Small, Patrick; Vahi, Karan

2011-03-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

2011-01-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

2010-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the Maghreb countries in the Southern Mediterranean and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. By strongly including the seismic engineering community, the project maintains a direct connection to the Eurocode 8 applications and the definition of the Nationally Determined Parameters, through the participation of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in the definition of the output specification requirements and in the hazard validation. SHARE will thus produce direct outputs for risk assessment. With this contribution, we focus on providing an overview of the goals and current achievement of the project.

Hazard Assessment in a Big Data World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2017-04-01

Open data in a Big Data World provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing scientific studies and better understanding of the Earth System. At the same time, it opens wide avenues for deceptive associations in inter- and transdisciplinary data misleading to erroneous predictions, which are unacceptable for implementation. Even the advanced tools of data analysis may lead to wrong assessments when inappropriately used to describe the phenomenon under consideration. A (self-) deceptive conclusion could be avoided by verification of candidate models in experiments on empirical data and in no other way. Seismology is not an exception. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when subjected to objective hypothesis testing. In many cases of seismic hazard assessment (SHA), either probabilistic or deterministic, term-less or short-term, the claims of a high potential of a model forecasts are based on a flawed application of statistics and, therefore, are hardly suitable for communication to decision makers, which situation creates numerous deception points and resulted controversies. So far, most, if not all, the standard probabilistic methods to assess seismic hazard and associated risks are based on subjective, commonly unrealistic, and even erroneous assumptions about seismic recurrence and none of the proposed short-term precursory signals showed sufficient evidence to be used as a reliable precursor of catastrophic earthquakes. Accurate testing against real observations must be done in advance claiming seismically hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors of the first and second kind in such a comparison permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of parameters in regard to a user-defined cost-benefit function. The information obtained in testing experiments may supply us with realistic estimates of confidence and accuracy of SHA predictions. If proved reliable, but not necessarily perfect, forecast/prediction related recommendations on the level of risks in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management can be used for efficient decision making.

Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

2016-04-01

Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically-based simulations. The following nodes represents for each rupture scenario different rupture forecast models (i.e; characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter) and for a given rupture forecast, two probability models commonly used in seismic hazard assessment: poissonian or time-dependent. The final node represents an exhaustive set of ground motion prediction equations chosen in order to be compatible with the region. Finally, the expected probability of exceeding a given ground motion level is computed at each sites. Results will be discussed for a few specific localities of the West Corinth Gulf.

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Center-East IRAN (55.5-58.5˚ E, 29-31˚ N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askari, M.; Ney, Beh

2009-04-01

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Center-East IRAN (55.5-58.5˚E, 29-31˚N) Mina Askari, Behnoosh Neyestani Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Deterministic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in Center-East IRAN, including Kerman and adjacent regions of 100km is selected. A catalogue of earthquakes in the region, including historical earthquakes and instrumental earthquakes is provided. A total of 25 potential seismic source zones in the region delineated as area sources for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information, then minimum distance for every seismic sources until site (Kerman) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined, eventually using the N. A. ABRAHAMSON and J. J. LITEHISER '1989 attenuation relationship, maximum acceleration is estimated to be 0.38g, that is related to the movement of blind fault with maximum magnitude of this source is Ms=5.5.

Coulomb stress transfer and accumulation on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar, over the past 110 years and its implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, X.; Shan, B.; Zhou, Y. M.; Wei, S. J.; Li, Y. D.; Wang, R. J.; Zheng, Y.

2017-05-01

Myanmar is drawing rapidly increasing attention from the world for its seismic hazard. The Sagaing Fault (SF), an active right-lateral strike-slip fault passing through Myanmar, has been being the source of serious seismic damage of the country. Thus, awareness of seismic hazard assessment of this region is of pivotal significance by taking into account the interaction and migration of earthquakes with respect to time and space. We investigated a seismic series comprising10 earthquakes with M > 6.5 that occurred along the SF since 1906. The Coulomb failure stress modeling exhibits significant interactions among the earthquakes. After the 1906 earthquake, eight out of nine earthquakes occurred in the positively stress-enhanced zone of the preceding earthquakes, verifying that the hypothesis of earthquake triggering is applicable on the SF. Moreover, we identified three visible positively stressed earthquake gaps on the central and southern SF, on which seismic hazard is increased.

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, B.; Askari, M.

2009-04-01

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran Behnoosh Neyestani , Mina Askari Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Seismic Hazard Assessment has been done for Shahdad city in this study , and four maps (Kerman-Bam-Nakhil Ab-Allah Abad) has been prepared to indicate the Deterministic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this area. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment has been preformed for a region in eastern Iran (Shahdad) based on the available geological, seismological and geophysical information and seismic zoning map of region has been constructed. For this assessment first Seimotectonic map of study region in a radius of 100km is prepared using geological maps, distribution of historical and instrumental earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions it is used as the base map for delineation of potential seismic sources. After that minimum distance, for every seismic sources until site (Shahdad) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined. In Shahdad ,according to results, peak ground acceleration using the Yoshimitsu Fukushima &Teiji Tanaka'1990 attenuation relationship is estimated to be 0.58 g, that is related to the movement of nayband fault with distance 2.4km of the site and maximum magnitude Ms=7.5.

J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

2015-12-01

An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard: a UK historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musson, R. M. W.

2012-04-01

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ.

Seismic isolation of nuclear power plants using sliding isolation bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Manish

Nuclear power plants (NPP) are designed for earthquake shaking with very long return periods. Seismic isolation is a viable strategy to protect NPPs from extreme earthquake shaking because it filters a significant fraction of earthquake input energy. This study addresses the seismic isolation of NPPs using sliding bearings, with a focus on the single concave Friction Pendulum(TM) (FP) bearing. Friction at the sliding surface of an FP bearing changes continuously during an earthquake as a function of sliding velocity, axial pressure and temperature at the sliding surface. The temperature at the sliding surface, in turn, is a function of the histories of coefficient of friction, sliding velocity and axial pressure, and the travel path of the slider. A simple model to describe the complex interdependence of the coefficient of friction, axial pressure, sliding velocity and temperature at the sliding surface is proposed, and then verified and validated. Seismic hazard for a seismically isolated nuclear power plant is defined in the United States using a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at mean annual frequencies of exceedance (MAFE) of 10-4 and 10 -5. A key design parameter is the clearance to the hard stop (CHS), which is influenced substantially by the definition of the seismic hazard. Four alternate representations of seismic hazard are studied, which incorporate different variabilities and uncertainties. Response-history analyses performed on single FP-bearing isolation systems using ground motions consistent with the four representations at the two shaking levels indicate that the CHS is influenced primarily by whether the observed difference between the two horizontal components of ground motions in a given set is accounted for. The UHRS at the MAFE of 10-4 is increased by a design factor (≥ 1) for conventional (fixed base) nuclear structure to achieve a target annual frequency of unacceptable performance. Risk oriented calculations are performed for eight sites across the United States to show that the factor is equal to 1.0 for seismically isolated NPPs, if the risk is dominated by horizontal earthquake shaking. Response-history analyses using different models of seismically isolated NPPs are performed to understand the importance of the choice of friction model, model complexity and vertical ground motion for calculating horizontal displacement response across a wide range of sites and shaking intensities. A friction model for the single concave FP bearing should address heating. The pressure- and velocity-dependencies were not important for the models and sites studied. Isolation-system displacements can be computed using a macro model comprising a single FP bearing.

Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

2015-12-01

At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Could the collapse of a massive speleothem be the record of a large paleoearthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Alessandro; Pace, Bruno; Vasta, Marcello; Ferranti, Luigi; Colella, Abner; Vassallo, Maurizio

2016-04-01

Earthquake forecast and seismic hazard models are generally based on historical and instrumental seismicity. However, in regions characterized by moderate strain rates and by strong earthquakes with recurrence longer than the time span covered by historical catalogues, different approaches are desirable to provide an independent test of seismologically-based models. We used non-conventional methods, such as the so-called "Fragile Geological Features", and in particular cave speleothems, for assessing and improving existing paleoseismological databases and seismic hazard models. In this work we present a detailed study of a massive speleothem found collapsed in the Cola Cave (Abruzzo region, Central Apennines, Italy) that could be considered the record of a large paleoearthquake. Radiometric dating and geotechnical measurements are carried out to characterize the collapse time and the mechanical properties of speleothem. We performed theoretical and numerical modelling in order to estimate the values of the horizontal ground acceleration required to failure the speleothems. In particular we used a finite element method (FEM), with the SAP200 software, starting from the detailed geometry of the speleothem and its mechanical properties. We used several individual seismogenic source geometries and four different ground motion prediction equations to calculate the possible response spectra. We carried out also a seismic noise survey to understand and quantify any ground motion amplification phenomenon. The results suggest two faults located in the Fucino area as the most probable causative sources of the cave speleothem collapses, recorded ~4-5 ka ago, with a Mw=6.8 ± 0.2. Our approach contributes to assess the existence of past earthquakes integrating the classical paleoseismological trenches techniques, and to attribute the retrieved event to geometrically-defined individual seismogenic sources, which represents a key contribution to improve fault-based seismic hazard models.

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet

2009-01-01

In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

Active tectonics of the Imperial Valley, southern California: fault damage zones, complex basins and buried faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persaud, P.; Ma, Y.; Stock, J. M.; Hole, J. A.; Fuis, G. S.; Han, L.

2016-12-01

Ongoing oblique slip at the Pacific-North America plate boundary in the Salton Trough produced the Imperial Valley. Deformation in this seismically active area is distributed across a complex network of exposed and buried faults resulting in a largely unmapped seismic hazard beneath the growing population centers of El Centro, Calexico and Mexicali. To better understand the shallow crustal structure in this region and the connectivity of faults and seismicity lineaments, we used data primarily from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) to construct a P-wave velocity profile to 15 km depth, and a 3-D velocity model down to 8 km depth including the Brawley Geothermal area. We obtained detailed images of a complex wedge-shaped basin at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. Two deep subbasins (VP <5.65 km/s) are located in the western part of the larger Imperial Valley basin, where seismicity trends and active faults play a significant role in shaping the basin edge. Our 3-D VP model reveals previously unrecognized NE-striking cross faults that are interacting with the dominant NW-striking faults to control deformation. New findings in our profile include localized regions of low VP (thickening of a 5.65-5.85 km/s layer) near faults or seismicity lineaments interpreted as possibly faulting-related. Our 3-D model and basement map reveal velocity highs associated with the geothermal areas in the eastern valley. The improved seismic velocity model from this study, and the identification of important unmapped faults or buried interfaces will help refine the seismic hazard for parts of Imperial County, California.

75 FR 16202 - Office of New Reactors; Interim Staff Guidance on Ensuring Hazard-Consistent Seismic Input for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-31

... Staff Guidance on Ensuring Hazard-Consistent Seismic Input for Site Response and Soil Structure...-Consistent Seismic Input for Site Response and Soil Structure Interaction Analyses,'' (Agencywide Documents... Soil Structure Interaction Analyses,'' (ADAMS Accession No. ML092230455) to solicit public and industry...

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.S.

2010-01-01

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (mmax) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several mmax alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating mmax. The USGS uses preferred mmax values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller mmax. Alternative models span the mmax ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies mmax equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong mmax truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with mmax in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, mmax clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2007-10-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

Active crustal deformation of the El Salvador Fault Zone by integrating geodetic, seismological and geological data: application in seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staller, A.; Benito, B.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Hernández, D.; Hernández-Rey, R.

2013-05-01

El Salvador, Central America, is part of the Chortis block in the northwestern boundary of the Caribbean plate. This block is interacting with a diffuse triple junction point with the Cocos and North American plates. Among the structures that cut the Miocene to Pleistocene volcanic deposits stands out the El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ): It is oriented in N90-100E direction, and it is composed of several structural segments that deform Quaternary deposits with right-lateral and oblique slip motions. The ESFZ is seismically active and capable of producing earthquakes such as the February 13, 2001 with Mw 6.6 (Martínez-Díaz et al., 2004), that seriously affected the population, leaving many casualties. This structure plays an important role in the tectonics of the Chortis block, since its motion is directly related to the drift of the Caribbean plate to the east and not with the partitioning of the deformation of the Cocos subduction (here not coupled) (Álvarez-Gómez et al., 2008). Together with the volcanic arc of El Salvador, this zone constitutes a weakness area that allows the motion of forearc block toward the NW. The geometry and the degree of activity of the ESFZ are not studied enough. However their knowledge is essential to understand the seismic hazard associated to this important seismogenic structure. For this reason, since 2007 a GPS dense network was established along the ESFZ (ZFESNet) in order to obtain GPS velocity measurements which are later used to explain the nature of strain accumulation on major faults along the ESFZ. The current work aims at understanding active crustal deformation of the ESFZ through kinematic model. The results provide significant information to be included in a new estimation of seismic hazard taking into account the major structures in ESFZ.

Active crustal deformation of the El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ) using GPS data: Implications in seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staller, Alejandra; Benito, Belen; Jesús Martínez-Díaz, José; Hernández, Douglas; Hernández-Rey, Román; Alonso-Henar, Jorge

2014-05-01

El Salvador, Central America, is part of the Chortis block in the northwestern boundary of the Caribbean plate. This block is interacting with a diffuse triple junction point with the Cocos and North American plates. Among the structures that cut the Miocene to Pleistocene volcanic deposits stands out the El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ): It is oriented in N90º-100ºE direction, and it is composed of several structural segments that deform Quaternary deposits with right-lateral and oblique slip motions. The ESFZ is seismically active and capable of producing earthquakes such as the February 13, 2001 with Mw 6.6 (Martínez-Díaz et al., 2004), that seriously affected the population, leaving many casualties. This structure plays an important role in the tectonics of the Chortis block, since its motion is directly related to the drift of the Caribbean plate to the east and not with the partitioning of the deformation of the Cocos subduction (here not coupled) (Álvarez-Gómez et al., 2008). Together with the volcanic arc of El Salvador, this zone constitutes a weakness area that allows the motion of forearc block toward the NW. The geometry and the degree of activity of the ESFZ are not studied enough. However their knowledge is essential to understand the seismic hazard associated to this important seismogenic structure. For this reason, since 2007 a GPS dense network was established along the ESFZ (ZFESNet) in order to obtain GPS velocity measurements which are later used to explain the nature of strain accumulation on major faults along the ESFZ. The current work aims at understanding active crustal deformation of the ESFZ through kinematic model. The results provide significant information to be included in a new estimation of seismic hazard taking into account the major structures in ESFZ.

Maps Showing Seismic Landslide Hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Michael, John A.

2009-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =~300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazard zones were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.

2014-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazards were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

B-value and slip rate sensitivity analysis for PGA value in Lembang fault and Cimandiri fault area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, Cecep; Ito, Takeo; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

2017-07-01

We examine slip rate and b-value contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedence in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi and Bandung using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate and b-value in Lembang and Cimandiri Fault area have been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates are sensitive to fault slip rate and b-value with uncertainty result are 0.25 g dan 0.1-0.2 g, respectively. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate are 0.49 + 0.13 g with COV 27% and 0.39 + 0.05 g with COV 13% for Sukabumi and Bandung, respectively.

GEOS seismograms recorded for aftershocks of the earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, during the time period 26 December 1988 14:00 through 29 December 1988 (UTC)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, R.D.; Glassmoyer, Gary; Cranswick, Edward

1989-01-01

The earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, serve as another grim reminder of the serious hazard that earthquakes pose throughout the world. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families of the earthquake victims and intend that our cooperative scientific endeavours will help reduce losses in future earthquakes. Only through a better understanding of earthquake hazards can earthquake losses be reduced for all peoples in seismically active regions of the world.The tragic consequences of these earthquakes remind scientists and public officials alike of their urgent responsibilities to understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes. On behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey, I would like to express appreciation to our Soviet colleagues for their kind invitation to participate in joint scientific and engineering studies. Without their cooperation and generous assistance, the conduct of these studies would not have been possible.This report provides seismologic and geologic data collected during the time period December 21, 1988, through February 2, 1989. These data are presented in their entirety to expedite analysis of the data set for inferences regarding hazard mitigation actions, applicable not only in Armenia but other regions of the world exposed to high seismic risk.

GEOS seismograms recorded for aftershocks of the earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, during the time period 3 January 1989 through 2 February 1988 (UTC)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, R.D.; Glassmoyer, Gary; Cranswick, Edward

1989-01-01

The earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, serve as another grim reminder of the serious hazard that earthquakes pose throughout the world. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families of the earthquake victims and intend that our cooperative scientific endeavours will help reduce losses in future earthquakes. Only through a better understanding of earthquake hazards can earthquake losses be reduced for all peoples in seismically active regions of the world.The tragic consequences of these earthquakes remind scientists and public officials alike of their urgent responsibilities to understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes. On behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey, I would like to express appreciation to our Soviet colleagues for their kind invitation to participate in joint scientific and engineering studies. Without their cooperation and generous assistance, the conduct of these studies would not have been possible.This report provides seismologic and geologic data collected during the time period December 21, 1988, through February 2, 1989. These data are presented in their entirety to expedite analysis of the data set for inferences regarding hazard mitigation actions, applicable not only in Armenia but other regions of the world exposed to high seismic risk

Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) for Nuclear Facilities Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kevin J. Coppersmith; Lawrence A. Salomone; Chris W. Fuller

2012-01-31

This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to representmore » the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model. Results and Findings The product of this report is a regional CEUS SSC model. This model includes consideration of an updated database, full assessment and incorporation of uncertainties, and the range of diverse technical interpretations from the larger technical community. The SSC model will be widely applicable to the entire CEUS, so this project uses a ground motion model that includes generic variations to allow for a range of representative site conditions (deep soil, shallow soil, hard rock). Hazard and sensitivity calculations were conducted at seven test sites representative of different CEUS hazard environments. Challenges and Objectives The regional CEUS SSC model will be of value to readers who are involved in PSHA work, and who wish to use an updated SSC model. This model is based on a comprehensive and traceable process, in accordance with SSHAC guidelines in NUREG/CR-6372, Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. The model will be used to assess the present-day composite distribution for seismic sources along with their characterization in the CEUS and uncertainty. In addition, this model is in a form suitable for use in PSHA evaluations for regulatory activities, such as Early Site Permit (ESPs) and Combined Operating License Applications (COLAs). Applications, Values, and Use Development of a regional CEUS seismic source model will provide value to those who (1) have submitted an ESP or COLA for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review before 2011; (2) will submit an ESP or COLA for NRC review after 2011; (3) must respond to safety issues resulting from NRC Generic Issue 199 (GI-199) for existing plants and (4) will prepare PSHAs to meet design and periodic review requirements for current and future nuclear facilities. This work replaces a previous study performed approximately 25 years ago. Since that study was completed, substantial work has been done to improve the understanding of seismic sources and their characterization in the CEUS. Thus, a new regional SSC model provides a consistent, stable basis for computing PSHA for a future time span. Use of a new SSC model reduces the risk of delays in new plant licensing due to more conservative interpretations in the existing and future literature. Perspective The purpose of this study, jointly sponsored by EPRI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the NRC was to develop a new CEUS SSC model. The team assembled to accomplish this purpose was composed of distinguished subject matter experts from industry, government, and academia. The resulting model is unique, and because this project has solicited input from the present-day larger technical community, it is not likely that there will be a need for significant revision for a number of years. See also Sponsors Perspective for more details. The goal of this project was to implement the CEUS SSC work plan for developing a regional CEUS SSC model. The work plan, formulated by the project manager and a technical integration team, consists of a series of tasks designed to meet the project objectives. This report was reviewed by a participatory peer review panel (PPRP), sponsor reviewers, the NRC, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other stakeholders. Comments from the PPRP and other reviewers were considered when preparing the report. The SSC model was completed at the end of 2011.« less

Local amplification of seismic waves from the Denali earthquake and damaging seiches in Lake Union, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barberopoulou, A.; Qamar, A.; Pratt, T.L.; Creager, K.C.; Steele, W.P.

2004-01-01

The Mw7.9 Denali, Alaska earthquake of 3 November, 2002, caused minor damage to at least 20 houseboats in Seattle, Washington by initiating water waves in Lake Union. These water waves were likely initiated during the large amplitude seismic surface waves from this earthquake. Maps of spectral amplification recorded during the Denali earthquake on the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) strong-motion instruments show substantially increased shear and surface wave amplitudes coincident with the Seattle sedimentary basin. Because Lake Union is situated on the Seattle basin, the size of the water waves may have been increased by local amplification of the seismic waves by the basin. Complete hazard assessments require understanding the causes of these water waves during future earthquakes. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

2017-12-01

The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from liquefaction sites in New Zealand and Japan support PGAs below 0.4 g, except at sites within 20 km exhibiting pore-pressure induced acceleration spikes due to cyclic mobility where PGA ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 g. This study is being extended to more detailed seismic and liquefaction hazard studies in five western Tennessee counties under a five year grant from HUD.

The influence of regional geological settings on the seismic hazard level in copper mines in the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtan, Zbigniew

2017-11-01

The current level of rockburst hazard in copper mines of the (LGOM) Legnica- Głogów Copper Belt Area is mostly the consequence of mining-induced seismicity, whilst the majority of rockbursting events registered to date were caused by high-energy tremors. The analysis of seismic readings in recent years reveals that the highest seismic activity among the copper mines in the LGOM is registered in the mine Rudna. This study investigates the seismic activity in the rock strata in the Rudna mine fields over the years 2006-2015. Of particular interest are the key seismicity parameters: the number of registered seismic events, the total energy emissions, the energy index. It appears that varied seismic activity in the area may be the function of several variables: effective mining thickness, the thickness of burst-prone strata and tectonic intensity. The results support and corroborate the view that principal factors influencing the actual seismic hazard level are regional geological conditions in the copper mines within the Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt Area.

Active fault databases and seismic hazard calculations: a compromise between science and practice. Review of case studies from Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Mayordomo, Julian; Martin-Banda, Raquel; Insua-Arevalo, Juan Miguel; Alvarez-Gomez, Jose Antonio; Martinez-Diaz, Jose Jesus

2017-04-01

Since the Quaternary Active Faults Database of Iberia (QAFI) was released in February 2012 a number of studies aimed at producing seismic hazard assessments have made use of it. We will present a summary of the shortcomings and advantages that were faced when QAFI was considered in different seismic hazard studies. These include the production of the new official seismic hazard map of Spain, performed in the view of the foreseen adoption of Eurocode-8 throughout 2017. The QAFI database was considered as a complementary source of information for designing the seismogenic source-zone models used in the calculations, and particularly for the estimation of maximum magnitude distribution in each zone, as well as for assigning the predominant rupture mechanism based on style of faulting. We will also review the different results obtained by other studies that considered QAFI faults as independent seismogenic-sources in opposition to source-zones, revealing, on one hand, the crucial importance of data-reliability and, on the other, the very much influence that ground motion attenuation models have on the actual impact of fault-sources on hazard results. Finally, we will present briefly the updated version of the database (QAFI v.3, 2015), which includes an original scheme for evaluating the reliability of fault seismic parameters specifically devised to facilitate decision-making to seismic hazard practitioners.

Quantitative estimation of time-variable earthquake hazard by using fuzzy set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deyi, Feng; Ichikawa, M.

1989-11-01

In this paper, the various methods of fuzzy set theory, called fuzzy mathematics, have been applied to the quantitative estimation of the time-variable earthquake hazard. The results obtained consist of the following. (1) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of seismicity data. By using some methods of fuzzy mathematics, seismicity patterns before large earthquakes can be studied more clearly and more quantitatively, highly active periods in a given region and quiet periods of seismic activity before large earthquakes can be recognized, similarities in temporal variation of seismic activity and seismic gaps can be examined and, on the other hand, the time-variable earthquake hazard can be assessed directly on the basis of a series of statistical indices of seismicity. Two methods of fuzzy clustering analysis, the method of fuzzy similarity, and the direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition, have been studied is particular. One method of fuzzy clustering analysis is based on fuzzy netting, and another is based on the fuzzy equivalent relation. (2) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of observational data for different precursors. The direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition has been applied to research on earthquake precursors of different kinds. On the basis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of recognized precursors, earthquake hazards in different terms can be estimated. This paper mainly deals with medium-short-term precursors observed in Japan and China.

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi; Charusiri, Punya

2016-06-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters ( a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xie, F.; Wang, Z.; Liu, J.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 ?? 0.1??. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ??? 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i. e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

Seismic hazard assessment in the megacity of Blida (Algeria) and its surrounding regions using parametric-historic procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellalem, Fouzi; Talbi, Abdelhak; Djellit, Hamou; Ymmel, Hayet; Mobarki, Mourad

2018-03-01

The region of Blida is characterized by a relatively high seismic activity, pointed especially during the past two centuries. Indeed, it experienced a significant number of destructive earthquakes such as the earthquakes of March 2, 1825 and January 2, 1867, with intensity of X and IX, respectively. This study aims to investigate potential seismic hazard in Blida city and its surrounding regions. For this purpose, a typical seismic catalog was compiled using historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years, and the recent instrumental seismicity dating back to 1900. The parametric-historic procedure introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) was applied to assess seismic hazard in the study region. It is adapted to deal with incomplete catalogs and does not use any subjective delineation of active seismic zones. Because of the lack of recorded strong motion data, three ground prediction models have been considered, as they seem the most adapted to the seismicity of the study region. Results are presented as peak ground acceleration (PGA) seismic hazard maps, showing expected peak accelerations with 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year period. As the most significant result, hot spot regions with high PGA values are mapped. For example, a PGA of 0.44 g has been found in a small geographical area centered on Blida city.

Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

2018-04-01

Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Khaista; Burton, Paul W.; Weatherill, Graeme A.

2018-05-01

A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N-39° N; 59° E-80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.

e-Science on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation by EUAsiaGrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Eric; Lin, Simon; Chen, Hsin-Yen; Chao, Li; Huang, Bor-Shoh; Liang, Wen-Tzong

2010-05-01

Although earthquake is not predictable at this moment, with the aid of accurate seismic wave propagation analysis, we could simulate the potential hazards at all distances from possible fault sources by understanding the source rupture process during large earthquakes. With the integration of strong ground-motion sensor network, earthquake data center and seismic wave propagation analysis over gLite e-Science Infrastructure, we could explore much better knowledge on the impact and vulnerability of potential earthquake hazards. On the other hand, this application also demonstrated the e-Science way to investigate unknown earth structure. Regional integration of earthquake sensor networks could aid in fast event reporting and accurate event data collection. Federation of earthquake data center entails consolidation and sharing of seismology and geology knowledge. Capability building of seismic wave propagation analysis implies the predictability of potential hazard impacts. With gLite infrastructure and EUAsiaGrid collaboration framework, earth scientists from Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippine, Thailand are working together to alleviate potential seismic threats by making use of Grid technologies and also to support seismology researches by e-Science. A cross continental e-infrastructure, based on EGEE and EUAsiaGrid, is established for seismic wave forward simulation and risk estimation. Both the computing challenge on seismic wave analysis among 5 European and Asian partners, and the data challenge for data center federation had been exercised and verified. Seismogram-on-Demand service is also developed for the automatic generation of seismogram on any sensor point to a specific epicenter. To ease the access to all the services based on users workflow and retain the maximal flexibility, a Seismology Science Gateway integating data, computation, workflow, services and user communities would be implemented based on typical use cases. In the future, extension of the earthquake wave propagation to tsunami mitigation would be feasible once the user community support is in place.

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

2018-03-01

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

Improved earthquake monitoring in the central and eastern United States in support of seismic assessments for critical facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leith, William S.; Benz, Harley M.; Herrmann, Robert B.

2011-01-01

Evaluation of seismic monitoring capabilities in the central and eastern United States for critical facilities - including nuclear powerplants - focused on specific improvements to understand better the seismic hazards in the region. The report is not an assessment of seismic safety at nuclear plants. To accomplish the evaluation and to provide suggestions for improvements using funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey examined addition of new strong-motion seismic stations in areas of seismic activity and addition of new seismic stations near nuclear power-plant locations, along with integration of data from the Transportable Array of some 400 mobile seismic stations. Some 38 and 68 stations, respectively, were suggested for addition in active seismic zones and near-power-plant locations. Expansion of databases for strong-motion and other earthquake source-characterization data also was evaluated. Recognizing pragmatic limitations of station deployment, augmentation of existing deployments provides improvements in source characterization by quantification of near-source attenuation in regions where larger earthquakes are expected. That augmentation also supports systematic data collection from existing networks. The report further utilizes the application of modeling procedures and processing algorithms, with the additional stations and the improved seismic databases, to leverage the capabilities of existing and expanded seismic arrays.

Geoethical and socio-political aspects of seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, quantification and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Seismic hazard and, more recently, tsunami hazard assessments have been undertaken in several countries of the world and globally for the whole Earth planet with the aim of providing a scientifically sound basis to the engineers, technicians, urban and industrial planners, politicians, civil protection operators and in general to the authorities for devising rational risk mitigation strategies and corresponding adequate policies. The main point of this presentation is that the chief-value of all seismic and tsunami hazard studies (including theory, concept, quantification and mapping) resides in the social and political values of the provided products, which is a standpoint entailing a number of relevant geoethical implications. The most relevant implication regards geoscientists who are the subjects mainly involved in carrying out hazard evaluations. Viewed from the classical perspective, the main ethical obligations of geoscientists are restricted to performing hazard estimations in the best possible way from a scientific point of view, which means selecting the "best" available data, adopting sound theoretical models, making use of rigorous methods… What is outlined here, is that this is an insufficient minimalistic position, since it overlooks the basic socio-political and therefore practical value of the hazard-analysis final products. In other words, if one views hazard assessment as a production process leading from data and theories (raw data and production means) to hazard maps (products), the criterion to judge whether it is good or bad needs also to include the usability factor. Seismic and tsunami hazard reports and maps are products that should be usable, which means that they should meet user needs and requirements, and therefore they should be evaluated according to how much they are clearly understandable to, and appropriate for, making-decision users. In the traditional view of a science serving the society, one could represent the interaction process as a line connecting geoscientists and users, where geoscientists possess the knowledge (data, theory and models) and teach, while users get products and learn. The new geoethical perspective is that the line is replaced by a loop, where geoscientists and users interact cyclically: 1) where theory and methods themselves are not determined a-priori, but they result also in response of geoscientists-users interactions, and 2) where user needs can be modified ex-post in response to geoscientists elaborations. These two-way feedback actions, opening also the path to close interdisciplinary approaches involving geo- and social sciences, are the main challenge for the present generation of geoscientists. Unfortunately they are not properly and adequately reflected in the today university educational systems, and in professional societies.

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

2018-03-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

76 FR 39133 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-05

... assess the adequacy of proposed seismic design bases and the design bases for other site hazards for... sited, designed, constructed, and maintained to withstand geologic hazards, such as faulting, seismic... potential man-made hazards will be appropriately accounted for in the design of nuclear power and test...

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best available science.

Characterization of the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults near Reelfoot Lake, Tennessee, from high-resolution seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, William J.; Shedlock, Kaye M.; Odum, Jack K.

1995-01-01

In the winter of 1811-12, three of the largest historic earthquakes in the United States occurred near New Madrid, Missouri. Seismicity continues to the present day throughout a tightly clustered pattern of epicenters centered on the bootheel of Missouri, including parts of northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. In 1990, the New Madrid seismic zone/Central United States became the first seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains to be designated a priority research area within the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). This Professional Paper is a collection of papers, some published separately, presenting results of the newly intensified research program in this area. Major components of this research program include tectonic framework studies, seismicity and deformation monitoring and modeling, improved seismic hazard and risk assessments, and cooperative hazard mitigation studies.

New seismic hazard maps for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.; Frankel, A.; Petersen, M.; Leyendecker, E.

2010-01-01

The probabilistic methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is applied to a new seismic hazard assessment for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Modeled seismic sources include gridded historical seismicity, subduction-interface and strike-slip faults with known slip rates, and two broad zones of crustal extension with seismicity rates constrained by GPS geodesy. We use attenuation relations from western North American and worldwide data, as well as a Caribbean-specific relation. Results are presented as maps of peak ground acceleration and 0.2- and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years (return periods of about 2,500 and 500 years, respectively). This paper describes the hazard model and maps that were balloted by the Building Seismic Safety Council and recommended for the 2003 NEHRP Provisions and the 2006 International Building Code. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Kane, D. L.

2015-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments seismic sources are typically divided into two groups: fault sources (to model known faults) and background sources (to model unknown faults). In areas like the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii the hazard and risk is driven primarily by background sources. Background sources can be modeled as areas, points or pseudo-faults. When background sources are modeled as pseudo-faults, magnitude-length or magnitude-area scaling relationships are required to construct these pseudo-faults. However the uncertainty associated with these relationships is often ignored or discarded in hazard and risk models, particularly when faults sources are the dominant contributor. Conversely, in areas modeled only with background sources these uncertainties are much more significant. In this study we test the impact of using various relationships and the resulting epistemic uncertainties on the seismic hazard and risk in the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii. It is common to use only one magnitude length relationship when calculating hazard. However, Stirling et al. (2013) showed that for a given suite of magnitude-rupture length relationships the variability can be quite large. The 2014 US National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) used one magnitude-rupture length relationship (Somerville, et al., 2001) in the Central and Eastern United States, and did not consider variability in the seismogenic rupture plane width. Here we use a suite of metrics to compare the USGS approach with these variable uncertainty models to assess 1) the impact on hazard and risk and 2) the epistemic uncertainty associated with choice of relationship. In areas where the seismic hazard is dominated by larger crustal faults (e.g. New Madrid) the choice of magnitude-rupture length relationship has little impact on the hazard or risk. However away from these regions, the choice of relationship is more significant and may approach the size of the uncertainty associated with the ground motion prediction equation suite.

Seismic Hazard Maps for Seattle, Washington, Incorporating 3D Sedimentary Basin Effects, Nonlinear Site Response, and Rupture Directivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Stephenson, William J.; Carver, David L.; Williams, Robert A.; Odum, Jack K.; Rhea, Susan

2007-01-01

This report presents probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle, Washington, based on over 500 3D simulations of ground motions from scenario earthquakes. These maps include 3D sedimentary basin effects and rupture directivity. Nonlinear site response for soft-soil sites of fill and alluvium was also applied in the maps. The report describes the methodology for incorporating source and site dependent amplification factors into a probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. 3D simulations were conducted for the various earthquake sources that can affect Seattle: Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep earthquakes. The maps presented in this document used essentially the same set of faults and distributed-earthquake sources as in the 2002 national seismic hazard maps. The 3D velocity model utilized in the simulations was validated by modeling the amplitudes and waveforms of observed seismograms from five earthquakes in the region, including the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps presented here depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The maps are based on determinations of seismic hazard for 7236 sites with a spacing of 280 m. The maps show that the most hazardous locations for this frequency band (around 1 Hz) are soft-soil sites (fill and alluvium) within the Seattle basin and along the inferred trace of the frontal fault of the Seattle fault zone. The next highest hazard is typically found for soft-soil sites in the Duwamish Valley south of the Seattle basin. In general, stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin exhibit higher hazard than stiff-soil sites outside the basin. Sites with shallow bedrock outside the Seattle basin have the lowest estimated hazard for this frequency band.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

2018-02-01

Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

Evidence of Enhanced Subrosion in a Fault Zone and Characterization of Hazard Zones with Elastic Parameters derived from SH-wave reflection Seismics and VSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadas, S. H.; Tanner, D. C.; Tschache, S.; Polom, U.; Krawczyk, C. M.

2017-12-01

Subrosion, the dissolution of soluble rocks, e.g., sulfate, salt, or carbonate, requires unsaturated water and fluid pathways that enable the water to flow through the subsurface and generate cavities. Over time, different structures can occur that depend on, e.g., rock solubility, flow rate, and overburden type. The two main structures are sinkholes and depressions. To analyze the link between faults, groundwater flow, and soluble rocks, and to determine parameters that are useful to characterize hazard zones, several shear-wave (SH) reflection seismic profiles were surveyed in Thuringia in Germany, where Permian sulfate rocks and salt subcrop close to the surface. From the analysis of the seismic sections we conclude that areas affected by tectonic deformation phases are prone to enhanced subrosion. The deformation of fault blocks leads to the generation of a damage zone with a dense fracture network. This increases the rock permeability and thus serves as a fluid pathway for, e.g., artesian-confined groundwater. The more complex the fault geometry and the more interaction between faults, the more fractures are generated, e.g., in a strike slip-fault zone. The faults also act as barriers for horizontal groundwater flow perpendicular to the fault surfaces and as conduits for groundwater flow along the fault strike. In addition, seismic velocity anomalies and attenuation of seismic waves are observed. Low velocities <200 m/s and high attenuation may indicate areas affected by subrosion. Other parameters that characterize the underground stability are the shear modulus and the Vp/Vs ratio. The data revealed zones of low shear modulus <100 MPa and high Vp/Vs ratio >2.5, which probably indicate unstable areas due to subrosion. Structural analysis of S-wave seismics is a valuable tool to detect near-surface faults in order to determine whether or not an area is prone to subrosion. The recognition of even small fault blocks can help to better understand the hydrodynamic groundwater conditions, which is another key factor to understand the subrosion process. The elastic parameters derived from seismic velocities can help to identify possible zones of instability.

Communication of Seismic Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Coates, Katherine; Moldobekov, Bolot; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Pittore, Massimiliano; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

Earthquakes that generate shaking leading to damage or human loss are infrequent events. This can lead to the situation in some parts of the world where, even in seismically hazardous areas, a large proportion of the potentially affected population do not have first-hand experience of a destructive earthquake event. Therefore, continual risk communication is required for the appropriate government agencies, civil defence professionals and the general public to understand the potential risks, and to implement the required risk mitigation measures. A comprehensive seismic risk communication strategy has been developed for the Kyrgyz Republic as part of a World Bank funded project. The communication strategy has been developed in close consultation with Kyrgyz ministries and agencies, who have been invaluable in tailoring the message to the specific requirements of Kyrgyz society. The communication strategy comprises the production of visual material, including brochures and posters, which illustrate in non-technical language the key elements of seismic risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, losses), and which provide easy-to-understand guidance on what the different segments of the society (young, elderly, home owners, employers) can do to reduce losses from earthquakes in their homes, workplace and the community at large. An important part of the risk communication strategy has been the establishment of a Steering Committee for the reduction of seismic risk in the Kyrgyz Republic. The members of the committee are drawn from those Kyrgyz ministries and institutions that are tasked with measuring and reducing seismic risk in the country, including the Ministries of Education, Transport and Emergency Situations, and the State Construction Agency. The role of the committee includes coordinating the communication between the project team and stakeholders in the Government, and, crucially, taking ownership of the risk mitigation measures and their implementation. A number of challenges were addressed when developing and implementing the risk communication strategy, and these will be discussed in this presentation. This includes the need for the engineering seismology community of the Kyrgyz Republic to reconsider some of the measures used to describe seismic, such as the ongoing use of macroseismic intensity instead of such measures as peak ground acceleration (PGA).

Research on the spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Jing; Jiang, Jitong; Zheng, Qiuhong; Gao, Huiying

2017-05-01

Seismic hazard analysis(SHA) is a key component of earthquake disaster prevention field for island engineering, whose result could provide parameters for seismic design microscopically and also is the requisite work for the island conservation planning’s earthquake and comprehensive disaster prevention planning macroscopically, in the exploitation and construction process of both inhabited and uninhabited islands. The existing seismic hazard analysis methods are compared in their application, and their application and limitation for island is analysed. Then a specialized spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island (SAMSHI) is given to support the further related work of earthquake disaster prevention planning, based on spatial analysis tools in GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The basic spatial database of SAMSHI includes faults data, historical earthquake record data, geological data and Bouguer gravity anomalies data, which are the data sources for the 11 indices of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and these indices are calculated by the spatial analysis model constructed in ArcGIS’s Model Builder platform.

Reevaluation of the Seismicity and seismic hazards of Northeastern Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Suleman, abdunnur; Aousetta, Fawzi

2014-05-01

Libya, located at the northern margin of the African continent, underwent many episodes of orogenic activities. These episodes of orogenic activities affected and shaped the geological setting of the country. This study represents a detailed investigation that aims to focus on the seismicity and its implications on earthquake hazards of Northeastern Libya. At the end of year 2005 the Libyan National Seismological Network starts functioning with 15 stations. The Seismicity of the area under investigation was reevaluated using data recorded by the recently established network. The Al-Maraj earthquake occurred in May 22nd 2005was analyzed. This earthquake was located in a known seismically active area. This area was the sight of the well known 1963 earthquake that kills over 200 people. Earthquakes were plotted and resulting maps were interpreted and discussed. The level of seismic activity is higher in some areas, such as the city of Al-Maraj. The offshore areas north of Al-Maraj seem to have higher seismic activity. It is highly recommended that the recent earthquake activity is considered in the seismic hazard assessments for the northeastern part of Libya.

Documentation for the Southeast Asia seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Dewey, James; Luco, Nicolas; Crone, Anthony; Lidke, David; Rukstales, Kenneth

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. During the course of this project, several great earthquakes ruptured subduction zones along the southern coast of Indonesia (fig. 1) causing additional structural damage and casualties in nearby communities. Future structural damage and societal losses from large earthquakes can be mitigated by providing an advance warning of tsunamis and introducing seismic hazard provisions in building codes that allow buildings and structures to withstand strong ground shaking associated with anticipated earthquakes. The Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project was funded through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System to develop seismic hazard maps that would assist engineers in designing buildings that will resist earthquake strong ground shaking. An important objective of this project was to discuss regional hazard issues with building code officials, scientists, and engineers in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The code communities have been receptive to these discussions and are considering updating the Thailand and Indonesia building codes to incorporate new information (for example, see notes from Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit, Chulalongkorn University in Appendix A).

Evaluating the Relationship Between Seismicity and Subsurface Well Activity in Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajoie, L. J.; Bennett, S. E. K.

2014-12-01

Understanding the relationship between seismicity and subsurface well activity is crucial to evaluating the seismic hazard of transient, non-tectonic seismicity. Several studies have demonstrated correlations between increased frequency of earthquake occurrence and the injection/production of fluids (e.g. oil, water) in nearby subsurface wells in intracontinental settings (e.g. Arkansas, Colorado, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas). Here, we evaluate all earthquake magnitudes for the past 20-30 years across the diverse seismotectonic settings of Utah. We explore earthquakes within 5 km and subsequent to completion dates of oil and gas wells. We compare seismicity rates prior to well establishment with rates after well establishment in an attempt to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes in areas of naturally high background seismicity. In a few central Utah locations, we find that the frequency of shallow (0-10 km) earthquakes increased subsequent to completion of gas wells within 5 km, and at depths broadly similar to bottom hole depths. However, these regions typically correspond to mining regions of the Wasatch Plateau, complicating our ability to distinguish between earthquakes related to either well activity or mining. We calculate earthquake density and well density and compare their ratio (earthquakes per area/wells per area) with several published metrics of seismotectonic setting. Areas with a higher earthquake-well ratio are located in relatively high strain regions (determined from GPS) associated with the Intermountain Seismic Belt, but cannot be attributed to any specific Quaternary-active fault. Additionally, higher ratio areas do not appear to coincide with anomalously high heat flow values, where rocks are typically thermally weakened. Incorporation of timing and volume data for well injection/production would allow for more robust temporal statistical analysis and hazard analysis.

Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2007-01-01

Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Deformation here is expressed as a belt of major, north-northeast-trending, left-lateral strike-slip faults and abundant seismicity. The seismicity intensifies farther to the northeast and includes a prominent zone of deep earthquakes associated with northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath Eurasia that extends beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamirs Mountains. Production of the seismic hazard maps is challenging because the geological and seismological data required to produce a seismic hazard model are limited. The data that are available for this project include historical seismicity and poorly constrained slip rates on only a few of the many active faults in the country. Much of the hazard is derived from a new catalog of historical earthquakes: from 1964 to the present, with magnitude equal to or greater than about 4.5, and with depth between 0 and 250 kilometers. We also include four specific faults in the model: the Chaman fault with an assigned slip rate of 10 mm/yr, the Central Badakhshan fault with an assigned slip rate of 12 mm/yr, the Darvaz fault with an assigned slip rate of 7 mm/yr, and the Hari Rud fault with an assigned slip rate of 2 mm/yr. For these faults and for shallow seismicity less than 50 km deep, we incorporate published ground-motion estimates from tectonically active regions of western North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Ground-motion estimates for deeper seismicity are derived from data in subduction environments. We apply estimates derived for tectonic regions where subduction is the main tectonic process for intermediate-depth seismicity between 50- and 250-km depth. Within the framework of these limitations, we have developed a preliminary probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment of Afghanistan, the type of analysis that underpins the seismic components of modern building codes in the United States. The assessment includes maps of estimated peak ground-acceleration (PGA), 0.2-second spectral acceleration (SA), and 1.0-secon

Microzonation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Taipei, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, K. S.; Lin, Y. P.

2017-12-01

The island of Taiwan lies at the boundary between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasia plate. Accordingly, the majority of seismic energy release near Taiwan originates from the two subduction zones. It is therefore not surprising that Taiwan has repeatedly been struck by large earthquakes such as 1986 Hualien earthquake, 1999 Chi Chi and 2002 Hualien earthquake. Microzonation of seismic hazard potential becomes necessary in Taipei City for the Central Geological Survey announced the Sanchiao active fault as Category II. In this study, a catalog of more than 2000 shallow earthquakes occurred from 1900 to 2015 with Mw magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 8.2, and 11 disastrous earthquakes occurred from 1683-1899, as well as Sanchiao active fault in the vicinity are used to estimate the seismic hazard potential in Taipei City for seismic microzonation. Furthermore, the probabilities of seismic intensity exceeding CWB intensity 5, 6, 7 and MMI VI, VII, VIII in 10, 30, and 50-year periods in the above areas are also analyzed for the seismic microzonation. Finally, by comparing with the seismic zoning map of Taiwan in current building code that was revised after 921 earthquakes, Results of this study will show which areas with higher earthquake hazard potential in Taipei City. They provide a valuable database for the seismic design of critical facilities. It will help mitigate Taipei City earthquake disaster loss in the future, as well as provide critical information for emergency response plans.

Active faulting in low- to moderate-seismicity regions: the SAFE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebrier, M.; Safe Consortium

2003-04-01

SAFE (Slow Active Faults in Europe) is an EC-FP5 funded multidisciplinary effort which proposes an integrated European approach in identifying and characterizing active faults as input for evaluating seismic hazard in low- to moderate-seismicity regions. Seismically active western European regions are generally characterized by low hazard but high risk, due to the concentration of human and material properties with high vulnerability. Detecting, and then analysing, tectonic deformations that may lead to destructive earthquakes in such areas has to take into account three major limitations: - the typical climate of western Europe (heavy vegetation cover and/or erosion) ; - the subdued geomorphic signature of slowly deforming faults ; - the heavy modification of landscape by human activity. The main objective of SAFE, i.e., improving the assessment of seismic hazard through understanding of the mechanics and recurrence of active faults in slowly deforming regions, is achieved through four major steps : (1) extending geologic and geomorphic investigations of fault activity beyond the Holocene to take into account various time-windows; (2) developing an expert system that combines diverse lines of geologic, seismologic, geomorphic, and geophysical evidence to diagnose the existence and seismogenic potential of slow active faults; (3) delineating and characterising high seismic risk areas of western Europe, either from historical or geological/geomorphic evidence; (4) demonstrating and discussing the impact of the project results on risk assessment through a seismic scenario in the Basel-Mulhouse pilot area. To take properly into account known differences in source behavior, these goals are pursued both in extensional (Lower and Upper Rhine Graben, Catalan Coast) and compressional tectonic settings (southern Upper Rhine Graben, Po Plain, and Provence). Two arid compressional regions (SE Spain and Moroccan High Atlas) have also been selected to address the limitations imposed by vegetation and human modified landscapes. The first results demonstrate that the strong added value provided by SAFE consists in its integrated multidisciplinary and multiscalar approach that allows robust diagnostic conclusions on fault activity and on the associated earthquake potential. This approach will be illustrated through selected methodological results.

Probabilistic, Seismically-Induced Landslide Hazard Mapping of Western Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, M. J.; Sharifi Mood, M.; Gillins, D. T.; Mahalingam, R.

2015-12-01

Earthquake-induced landslides can generate significant damage within urban communities by damaging structures, obstructing lifeline connection routes and utilities, generating various environmental impacts, and possibly resulting in loss of life. Reliable hazard and risk maps are important to assist agencies in efficiently allocating and managing limited resources to prepare for such events. This research presents a new methodology in order to communicate site-specific landslide hazard assessments in a large-scale, regional map. Implementation of the proposed methodology results in seismic-induced landslide hazard maps that depict the probabilities of exceeding landslide displacement thresholds (e.g. 0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 10 meters). These maps integrate a variety of data sources including: recent landslide inventories, LIDAR and photogrammetric topographic data, geology map, mapped NEHRP site classifications based on available shear wave velocity data in each geologic unit, and USGS probabilistic seismic hazard curves. Soil strength estimates were obtained by evaluating slopes present along landslide scarps and deposits for major geologic units. Code was then developed to integrate these layers to perform a rigid, sliding block analysis to determine the amount and associated probabilities of displacement based on each bin of peak ground acceleration in the seismic hazard curve at each pixel. The methodology was applied to western Oregon, which contains weak, weathered, and often wet soils at steep slopes. Such conditions have a high landslide hazard even without seismic events. A series of landslide hazard maps highlighting the probabilities of exceeding the aforementioned thresholds were generated for the study area. These output maps were then utilized in a performance based design framework enabling them to be analyzed in conjunction with other hazards for fully probabilistic-based hazard evaluation and risk assessment. a) School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

A Novel Approach to Constrain Near-Surface Seismic Wave Speed Based on Polarization Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Ishii, M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the seismic responses of cities around the world is essential for the risk assessment of earthquake hazards. One of the important parameters is the elastic structure of the sites, in particular, near-surface seismic wave speed, that influences the level of ground shaking. Many methods have been developed to constrain the elastic structure of the populated sites or urban basins, and here, we introduce a new technique based on analyzing the polarization content or the three-dimensional particle motion of seismic phases arriving at the sites. Polarization analysis of three-component seismic data was widely used up to about two decades ago, to detect signals and identify different types of seismic arrivals. Today, we have good understanding of the expected polarization direction and ray parameter for seismic wave arrivals that are calculated based on a reference seismic model. The polarization of a given phase is also strongly sensitive to the elastic wave speed immediately beneath the station. This allows us to compare the observed and predicted polarization directions of incoming body waves and infer the near-surface wave speed. This approach is applied to High-Sensitivity Seismograph Network in Japan, where we benchmark the results against the well-log data that are available at most stations. There is a good agreement between our estimates of seismic wave speeds and those from well logs, confirming the efficacy of the new method. In most urban environments, where well logging is not a practical option for measuring the seismic wave speeds, this method can provide a reliable, non-invasive, and computationally inexpensive estimate of near-surface elastic properties.

Seismic hazard assessment in the Catania and Siracusa urban areas (Italy) through different approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panzera, Francesco; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Rigano, Rosaria

2010-05-01

The seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can be performed using either Deterministic or Probabilistic approaches. In present study a probabilistic analysis was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns using two different procedures: the 'site' (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002) and the 'seismotectonic' (Cornell 1968; Esteva, 1967) methodologies. The SASHA code (D'Amico and Albarello, 2007) was used to calculate seismic hazard through the 'site' approach, whereas the CRISIS2007 code (Ordaz et al., 2007) was adopted in the Esteva-Cornell procedure. According to current international conventions for PSHA (SSHAC, 1997), a logic tree approach was followed to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties, for both seismotectonic and site methods. The code SASHA handles the intensity data taking into account the macroseismic information of past earthquakes. CRISIS2007 code needs, as input elements, a seismic catalogue tested for completeness, a seismogenetic zonation and ground motion predicting equations. Data concerning the characterization of regional seismic sources and ground motion attenuation properties were taken from the literature. Special care was devoted to define source zone models, taking into account the most recent studies on regional seismotectonic features and, in particular, the possibility of considering the Malta escarpment as a potential source. The combined use of the above mentioned approaches allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the site seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. The results point out that the choice of the probabilistic model plays a fundamental role. It is indeed observed that when the site intensity data are used, the town of Catania shows hazard values higher than the ones found for Siracusa, for each considered return period. On the contrary, when the Esteva-Cornell method is used, Siracusa urban area shows higher hazard than Catania, for return periods greater than one hundred years. The higher hazard observed, through the site approach, for Catania area can be interpreted in terms of greater damage historically observed at this town and its smaller distance from the seismogenic structures. On the other hand, the higher level of hazard found for Siracusa, throughout the Esteva-Cornell approach, could be a consequence of the features of such method which spreads out the intensities over a wide area. However, in SHA the use of a combined approach is recommended for a mutual validation of obtained results and any choice between the two approaches is strictly linked to the knowledge of the local seismotectonic features. References Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M.; 2002: Seismic hazard estimates using ill?defined macroseismic data at site. Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 1289?1304. Cornell C.A.; 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58(5), 1583-1606. D'Amico V. and Albarello D.; 2007: Codice per il calcolo della pericolosità sismica da dati di sito (freeware). Progetto DPC-INGV S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d12.html Esteva L.; 1967: Criterios para la construcción de espectros para diseño sísmico. Proceedings of XII Jornadas Sudamericanas de Ingeniería Estructural y III Simposio Panamericano de Estructuras, Caracas, 1967. Published later in Boletín del Instituto de Materiales y Modelos Estructurales, Universidad Central de Venezuela, No. 19. Ordaz M., Aguilar A. and Arboleda J.; 2007: CRISIS2007, Program for computing seismic hazard. Version 5.4, Mexico City: UNAM. SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee); 1997: Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. NUREG/CR-6372.

Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco

2016-04-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including hanging wall and directivity effects) within modern ground motion prediction equations, can have an influence on the seismic hazard at a site. Yet we also illustrate the conditions under which these effects may be partially tempered when considering the full uncertainty in rupture behaviour within the fault system. The third challenge is the development of efficient means for representing both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from active fault models in PSHA. In implementing state-of-the-art seismic hazard models into OpenQuake, such as those recently undertaken in California and Japan, new modeling techniques are needed that redefine how we treat interdependence of ruptures within the model (such as mutual exclusivity), and the propagation of uncertainties emerging from geology. Finally, we illustrate how OpenQuake, and GEM's additional toolkits for model preparation, can be applied to address long-standing issues in active fault modeling in PSHA. These include constraining the seismogenic coupling of a fault and the partitioning of seismic moment between the active fault surfaces and the surrounding seismogenic crust. We illustrate some of the possible roles that geodesy can play in the process, but highlight where this may introduce new uncertainties and potential biases into the seismic hazard process, and how these can be addressed.

Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

2016-04-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original parameter in the historical earthquake catalogues. A particular advantage of using intensities is that the very irregular pattern of the attenuation field of the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes can be estimated from detailed macroseismic observations that are available (in both countries) for the study region. Additionally, de-aggregation of the seismic hazard for a recurrence period of 475 years (probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years) for intensity was performed for 9 cities (administrative centers) situated in northern Bulgaria. Finally, applying SELENA software earthquake risk for Bulgarian part of the cross-boarder region is analyzed. The results presented for the Romania-Bulgaria cross border region are part of the work carried out in the DACEA Project (2010-2013) that was implemented in the framework of the Romania - Bulgaria Cross Border Cooperation Programme (2007-2013).

The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

2015-01-01

The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

2017-11-01

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

Does permanent extensional deformation in lower forearc slopes indicate shallow plate-boundary rupture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geersen, J.; Ranero, C. R.; Kopp, H.; Behrmann, J. H.; Lange, D.; Klaucke, I.; Barrientos, S.; Diaz-Naveas, J.; Barckhausen, U.; Reichert, C.

2018-05-01

Seismic rupture of the shallow plate-boundary can result in large tsunamis with tragic socio-economic consequences, as exemplified by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. To better understand the processes involved in shallow earthquake rupture in seismic gaps (where megathrust earthquakes are expected), and investigate the tsunami hazard, it is important to assess whether the region experienced shallow earthquake rupture in the past. However, there are currently no established methods to elucidate whether a margin segment has repeatedly experienced shallow earthquake rupture, with the exception of mechanical studies on subducted fault-rocks. Here we combine new swath bathymetric data, unpublished seismic reflection images, and inter-seismic seismicity to evaluate if the pattern of permanent deformation in the marine forearc of the Northern Chile seismic gap allows inferences on past earthquake behavior. While the tectonic configuration of the middle and upper slope remains similar over hundreds of kilometers along the North Chilean margin, we document permanent extensional deformation of the lower slope localized to the region 20.8°S-22°S. Critical taper analyses, the comparison of permanent deformation to inter-seismic seismicity and plate-coupling models, as well as recent observations from other subduction-zones, including the area that ruptured during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, suggest that the normal faults at the lower slope may have resulted from shallow, possibly near-trench breaking earthquake ruptures in the past. In the adjacent margin segments, the 1995 Antofagasta, 2007 Tocopilla, and 2014 Iquique earthquakes were limited to the middle and upper-slope and the terrestrial forearc, and so are upper-plate normal faults. Our findings suggest a seismo-tectonic segmentation of the North Chilean margin that seems to be stable over multiple earthquake cycles. If our interpretations are correct, they indicate a high tsunami hazard posed by the yet un-ruptured southern segment of the seismic gap.

MARSite-MARMARA SUPERSITE: Accomplishments and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Italiano, Franco; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Cakir, Ziyadin; Geli, Louis; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zulfikar, Can; Sesetyan, Karin

2017-04-01

MARsite Project, funded under FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) and successfully implemented to Marmara Region during 2014-2016 indicated that focusing on the monitoring of the region and the integration of data from land, sea and space and the processing of this composed data based on sound earth-science research is an effective tool for mitigating damage from future earthquakes. This was achieved by monitoring the earthquake hazard through the ground-shaking and forecast maps, short- and long-term earthquake rate forecasting and time-dependent seismic hazard maps to make important risk-mitigation decisions regarding building design, insurance rates, land-use planning, and public-policy issues that need to balance safety and economic and social interests. MARSite has demonstrated the power of the use of different sensors in the assessment of the earthquake hazard. In addition to the more than 30 scientific publication within the MARsite Project framework, a multidisciplinary innovative borehole seismic observatory and a dilatometer have been installed within MARSite where its a data can be used for a range of seismic studies. Due to the encouraging results obtained from this experiment, it was determined that in the future likely smaller number of stations will be required reducing the cost of national seismic networks. The technical infrastructure of the continuous GPS stations of MAGNET network has been updated within MARSite. Tsunami hazard studies in MARSite in Marmara Sea showed that the tsunami hazard in the Marmara Region is primarily due to submarine landslides triggered by an earthquake and a conceptual Tsunami Early Warning System in the Marmara region strongly coupled with the strong ground motion and existing Earthquake Early Warning System was developed. The existing Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response system in the Marmara Region was improved and the installation and test of a pilot seismic landslide monitoring system was taken place in the Avcilar-Beylikdüzü Peninsula, a large landslide prone area located in westward part of Istanbul and facing the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). An integrated approach based on multi-parameter seafloor observatories was implemented to continuously monitor the micro-seismicity along with the fluid expulsion activity within the submerged fault zone. During MARSite, strong integration and links had been established with major European initiatives focused on the collection of multidisciplinary data, their dissemination, interpretation and fusion to produce consistent theoretical and practical models, the implementation of good practices so as to provide the necessary information to end users, and the updating of seismic hazard and risk evaluations in the Marmara region. In this perspective, to continue the understanding of and improvement in the preparedness for geological disasters, the existing monitoring infrastructure of Marsite requires the continuation of a strong a European initiative. This presentation will provide a venue for information exchange towards the establishment of such an initiative.

Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

2015-12-01

Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme of the different components of the PSHA model that has been built through three different independent steps: a formal experts' elicitation, the outcomes of the testing phase, and the correlation between the outcomes. Finally, we explore through different techniques the influence on seismic hazard of the declustering procedure.

Sedimentary evidence of historical and prehistorical earthquakes along the Venta de Bravo Fault System, Acambay Graben (Central Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacan, Pierre; Ortuño, María; Audin, Laurence; Perea, Hector; Baize, Stephane; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Zúñiga, F. Ramón

2018-03-01

The Venta de Bravo normal fault is one of the longest structures in the intra-arc fault system of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. It defines, together with the Pastores Fault, the 80 km long southern margin of the Acambay Graben. We focus on the westernmost segment of the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new paleoseismological information, evaluate its earthquake history, and assess the related seismic hazard. We analyzed five trenches, distributed at three different sites, in which Holocene surface faulting offsets interbedded volcanoclastic, fluvio-lacustrine and colluvial deposits. Despite the lack of known historical destructive earthquakes along this fault, we found evidence of at least eight earthquakes during the late Quaternary. Our results indicate that this is one of the major seismic sources of the Acambay Graben, capable of producing by itself earthquakes with magnitudes (MW) up to 6.9, with a slip rate of 0.22-0.24 mm yr- 1 and a recurrence interval between 1940 and 2390 years. In addition, a possible multi-fault rupture of the Venta de Bravo Fault together with other faults of the Acambay Graben could result in a MW > 7 earthquake. These new slip rates, earthquake recurrence rates, and estimation of slips per event help advance our understanding of the seismic hazard posed by the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new parameters for further hazard assessment.

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard models and maps for the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Haller, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the scientific basis for the source and ground-motion models applied in the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Maps, the development of new products that are used for building design and risk analyses, relationships between the hazard maps and design maps used in building codes, and potential future improvements to the hazard maps.

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting coastal Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Boore, David M.; Fisher, Michael A.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Geist, Eric L.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Kayen, Robert E.; Lee, Homa J.; Normark, William R.; Wong, Florence L.

2004-01-01

This report examines the regional seismic and geologic hazards that could affect proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in coastal Ventura County, California. Faults throughout this area are thought to be capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 to 7.5, which could produce surface fault offsets of as much as 15 feet. Many of these faults are sufficiently well understood to be included in the current generation of the National Seismic Hazard Maps; others may become candidates for inclusion in future revisions as research proceeds. Strong shaking is the primary hazard that causes damage from earthquakes and this area is zoned with a high level of shaking hazard. The estimated probability of a magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquake (comparable in size to the 2003 San Simeon quake) occurring in the next 30 years within 30 miles of Platform Grace is 50-60%; for Cabrillo Port, the estimate is a 35% likelihood. Combining these probabilities of earthquake occurrence with relationships that give expected ground motions yields the estimated seismic-shaking hazard. In parts of the project area, the estimated shaking hazard is as high as along the San Andreas Fault. The combination of long-period basin waves and LNG installations with large long-period resonances potentially increases this hazard.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-01

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationshipsmore » for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.« less

A procedure to select ground-motion time histories for deterministic seismic hazard analysis from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Duruo; Du, Wenqi; Zhu, Hong

2017-10-01

In performance-based seismic design, ground-motion time histories are needed for analyzing dynamic responses of nonlinear structural systems. However, the number of ground-motion data at design level is often limited. In order to analyze seismic performance of structures, ground-motion time histories need to be either selected from recorded strong-motion database or numerically simulated using stochastic approaches. In this paper, a detailed procedure to select proper acceleration time histories from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database for several cities in Taiwan is presented. Target response spectra are initially determined based on a local ground-motion prediction equation under representative deterministic seismic hazard analyses. Then several suites of ground motions are selected for these cities using the Design Ground Motion Library (DGML), a recently proposed interactive ground-motion selection tool. The selected time histories are representatives of the regional seismic hazard and should be beneficial to earthquake studies when comprehensive seismic hazard assessments and site investigations are unavailable. Note that this method is also applicable to site-specific motion selections with the target spectra near the ground surface considering the site effect.

A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice

2018-05-01

A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

Probing dynamic hydrologic system of slowly-creeping landslides with passive seismic imaging: A comprehensive landslide monitoring site at Lantai, Ilan area in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Kuo, C. Y.; Chen, C. C.; Kuo, L. W.; Chen, R. F.; Lin, C. R.; Lin, P. P.; Lin, C. W.; Lin, M. L.; Wang, K. L.

2017-12-01

A unique landslide monitoring project integrating multidisciplinary geophysics experiments such as GPS, inclinometer, piezometer, and spontaneous potential log has been established at Lantai, Ilan area to investigating the possible detachment depth range and the physical mechanism of a slowly creeping landslide. In parallel with this, a lately deployed local seismic network also lends an opportunity to employ the passive seismic imaging technique to detect the time-lapse changes of seismic velocity in and around the landslide area. Such technique that retrieves Green's functions by cross-correlation of continuous ambient noise has opened new opportunities to seismologically monitoring the environmental and tectonic events such as ground water variation, magma intrusion under volcanos, and co-seismic medium damage in recent years. Integrating these geophysical observations, we explore the primary controls of derived seismic velocity changes and especially the hydrological response of the landslide to the passage of Megi typhoon in the last September 2016, which could potentially further our understanding of the dynamic system of landslides and in turn help the hazard mitigation.

Fault2SHA- A European Working group to link faults and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment communities in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scotti, Oona; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The key questions we ask are: What is the best strategy to fill in the gap in knowledge and know-how in Europe when considering faults in seismic hazard assessments? Are field geologists providing the relevant information for seismic hazard assessment? Are seismic hazard analysts interpreting field data appropriately? Is the full range of uncertainties associated with the characterization of faults correctly understood and propagated in the computations? How can fault-modellers contribute to a better representation of the long-term behaviour of fault-networks in seismic hazard studies? Providing answers to these questions is fundamental, in order to reduce the consequences of future earthquakes and improve the reliability of seismic hazard assessments. An informal working group was thus created at a meeting in Paris in November 2014, partly financed by the Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety, with the aim to motivate exchanges between field geologists, fault modellers and seismic hazard practitioners. A variety of approaches were presented at the meeting and a clear gap emerged between some field geologists, that are not necessarily familiar with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methods and needs and practitioners that do not necessarily propagate the "full" uncertainty associated with the characterization of faults. The group thus decided to meet again a year later in Chieti (Italy), to share concepts and ideas through a specific exercise on a test case study. Some solutions emerged but many problems of seismic source characterizations with people working in the field as well as with people tackling models of interacting faults remained. Now, in Wien, we want to open the group and launch a call for the European community at large to contribute to the discussion. The 2016 EGU session Fault2SHA is motivated by such an urgency to increase the number of round tables on this topic and debate on the peculiarities of using faults in seismic hazard assessment in Europe. Europe is a country dominated by slow deforming regions where the long histories of seismicity are the main source of information to infer fault behaviour. Geodetic studies, geomorphological studies as well as paleoseismological studies are welcome complementary data that are slowly filling in the database but are at present insufficient, by themselves, to allow characterizing faults. Moreover, Europe is characterized by complex fault systems (Upper Rhine Graben, Central and Southern Apennines, Corinth, etc.) and the degree of uncertainty in the characterization of the faults can be very different from one country to the other. This requires developing approaches and concepts that are adapted to the European context. It is thus the specificity of the European situation that motivates the creation of a predominantly European group where field geologists, fault modellers and fault-PSHA practitioners may exchange and learn from each other's experience.

Correlates of household seismic hazard adjustment adoption.

PubMed

Lindell, M K; Whitney, D J

2000-02-01

This study examined the relationships of self-reported adoption of 12 seismic hazard adjustments (pre-impact actions to reduce danger to persons and property) with respondents' demographic characteristics, perceived risk, perceived hazard knowledge, perceived protection responsibility, and perceived attributes of the hazard adjustments. Consistent with theoretical predictions, perceived attributes of the hazard adjustments differentiated among the adjustments and had stronger correlations with adoption than any of the other predictors. These results identify the adjustments and attributes that emergency managers should address to have the greatest impact on improving household adjustment to earthquake hazard.

Risk-targeted maps for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

2018-03-01

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

Introduction of conditional mean spectrum and conditional spectrum in the practice of seismic safety evaluation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Kun; Bouaanani, Najib; Wen, Ruizhi; Ren, Yefei

2018-05-01

This paper aims at implementing and introducing the use of conditional mean spectrum (CMS) and conditional spectrum (CS) as the main input parameters in the practice of seismic safety evaluation (SSE) in China, instead of the currently used uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). For this purpose, a procedure for M-R-epsilon seismic hazard deaggregation in China was first developed. For illustration purposes, two different typical sites in China, with one to two dominant seismic zones, were considered as examples to carry out seismic hazard deaggregation and illustrate the construction of CMS/CS. Two types of correlation coefficients were used to generate CMS and the results were compared over a vibration period range of interest. Ground motion records were selected from the NSMONS (2007-2015) and PEER NGA-West2 databases to correspond to the target CMS and CS. Hazard consistency of the spectral accelerations of the selected ground motion records was evaluated and validated by computing the annual exceedance probability rate of the response spectra and comparing the results to the hazard curve corresponding to each site of concern at different periods. The tools developed in this work and their illustrative application to specific case studies in China are a first step towards the adoption of CMS and CS into the practice of seismic safety evaluation in this country.

Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

2014-05-01

The development of effective mitigation strategies requires scientifically consistent estimates of seismic ground motion; recent analysis, however, showed that the performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) are very unsatisfactory in anticipating ground shaking from future large earthquakes. Moreover, due to their basic heuristic limitations, the standard PSHA estimates are by far unsuitable when dealing with the protection of critical structures (e.g. nuclear power plants) and cultural heritage, where it is necessary to consider extremely long time intervals. Nonetheless, the persistence in resorting to PSHA is often explained by the need to deal with uncertainties related with ground shaking and earthquakes recurrence. We show that current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data, allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of PSHA. The advanced approach considered in this study, namely the NDSHA (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), is based on the physically sound definition of a wide set of credible scenario events and accounts for uncertainties and earthquakes recurrence in a substantially different way. The expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes is defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves. The efficiency of the NDSHA computational codes allows for the fast generation of hazard maps at the regional scale even on a modern laptop computer. At the scenario scale, quick parametric studies can be easily performed to understand the influence of the model characteristics on the computed ground shaking scenarios. For massive parametric tests, or for the repeated generation of large scale hazard maps, the methodology can take advantage of more advanced computational platforms, ranging from GRID computing infrastructures to HPC dedicated clusters up to Cloud computing. In such a way, scientists can deal efficiently with the variety and complexity of the potential earthquake sources, and perform parametric studies to characterize the related uncertainties. NDSHA provides realistic time series of expected ground motion readily applicable for seismic engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The methodology has been successfully applied to strategic buildings, lifelines and cultural heritage sites, and for the purpose of seismic microzoning in several urban areas worldwide. A web application is currently being developed that facilitates the access to the NDSHA methodology and the related outputs by end-users, who are interested in reliable territorial planning and in the design and construction of buildings and infrastructures in seismic areas. At the same, the web application is also shaping up as an advanced educational tool to explore interactively how seismic waves are generated at the source, propagate inside structural models, and build up ground shaking scenarios. We illustrate the preliminary results obtained from a multiscale application of NDSHA approach to the territory of India, zooming from large scale hazard maps of ground shaking at bedrock, to the definition of local scale earthquake scenarios for selected sites in the Gujarat state (NW India). The study aims to provide the community (e.g. authorities and engineers) with advanced information for earthquake risk mitigation, which is particularly relevant to Gujarat in view of the rapid development and urbanization of the region.

A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

2017-12-01

We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum magnitude in 50 years and the corresponding expected ground shaking intensity in a cell g of a uniform grid of the region of interest. Then such a seismic hazard map is used to generate earthquake risk maps based on the exposed population density. Some oversimplified convolutions R(g) = H(g)•gP•F(gP) of seismic hazard assessment maps H(g) are applied in a few regions with population density distribution P of vulnerability V=F(gP), where g is a cell of a uniform grid and gP is the integral of the population density over the cell g.

76 FR 64977 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for the Office of Management and Budget (OMB...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-19

... the NRC to assess the adequacy of proposed seismic design bases and the design bases for other site..., designed, constructed, and maintained to withstand geologic hazards, such as faulting, seismic hazards, and... potential man-made hazards will be appropriately accounted for in the design of nuclear power and test...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Bayesian identification of multiple seismic change points and varying seismic rates caused by induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montoya-Noguera, Silvana; Wang, Yu

2017-04-01

The Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) has experienced an abnormal increase in seismic activity, which is believed to be related to anthropogenic activities. The U.S. Geological Survey has acknowledged this situation and developed the CEUS 2016 1 year seismic hazard model using the catalog of 2015 by assuming stationary seismicity in that period. However, due to the nonstationary nature of induced seismicity, it is essential to identify change points for accurate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We present a Bayesian procedure to identify the most probable change points in seismicity and define their respective seismic rates. It uses prior distributions in agreement with conventional PSHA and updates them with recent data to identify seismicity changes. It can determine the change points in a regional scale and may incorporate different types of information in an objective manner. It is first successfully tested with simulated data, and then it is used to evaluate Oklahoma's regional seismicity.

Evaluation of potential surface rupture and review of current seismic hazards program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-09

This report summarizes the authors review and evaluation of the existing seismic hazards program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The report recommends that the original program be augmented with a probabilistic analysis of seismic hazards involving assignment of weighted probabilities of occurrence to all potential sources. This approach yields a more realistic evaluation of the likelihood of large earthquake occurrence particularly in regions where seismic sources may have recurrent intervals of several thousand years or more. The report reviews the locations and geomorphic expressions of identified fault lines along with the known displacements of these faults and last knowmore » occurrence of seismic activity. Faults are mapped and categorized into by their potential for actual movement. Based on geologic site characterization, recommendations are made for increased seismic monitoring; age-dating studies of faults and geomorphic features; increased use of remote sensing and aerial photography for surface mapping of faults; the development of a landslide susceptibility map; and to develop seismic design standards for all existing and proposed facilities at LANL.« less

Seismic reflection evidence for a northeast-dipping Hayward fault near Fremont, California: Implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.; Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.K.; Ponce, D.A.

2005-01-01

A 1.6-km-long seismic reflection profile across the creeping trace of the southern Hayward fault near Fremont, California, images the fault to a depth of 650 m. Reflector truncations define a fault dip of about 70 degrees east in the 100 to 650 m depth range that projects upward to the creeping surface trace, and is inconsistent with a nearly vertical fault in this vicinity as previously believed. This fault projects to the Mission seismicity trend located at 4-10 km depth about 2 km east of the surface trace and suggests that the southern end of the fault is as seismically active as the part north of San Leandro. The seismic hazard implication is that the Hayward fault may have a more direct connection at depth with the Calaveras fault, affecting estimates of potential event magnitudes that could occur on the combined fault surfaces, thus affecting hazard assessments for the south San Francisco Bay region.

An interdisciplinary perspective on social and physical determinants of seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, K.-H.; Chang, Y.-C.; Liu, G.-Y.; Chan, C.-H.; Lin, T.-H.; Yeh, C.-H.

2015-01-01

While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs five hypothetical models to test different determinants that affect disaster fatality at the village level, namely seismic hazard intensity, population, building fragility, demographics and socioeconomics. The Poisson Regression Model is used to estimate the impact of natural hazards and social factors on fatality. Results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on the specific dimension of seismic fatality, some indicators of social inequality, such as gender ratio, dependency ratio, income and its SD, are the driving determinants deteriorating vulnerability to seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters. This study presents an interdisciplinary investigation into social and physical determinants in seismic risk.

SOME APPLICATIONS OF SEISMIC SOURCE MECHANISM STUDIES TO ASSESSING UNDERGROUND HAZARD.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; ,

1984-01-01

Various measures of the seismic source mechanism of mine tremors, such as magnitude, moment, stress drop, apparent stress, and seismic efficiency, can be related directly to several aspects of the problem of determining the underground hazard arising from strong ground motion of large seismic events. First, the relation between the sum of seismic moments of tremors and the volume of stope closure caused by mining during a given period can be used in conjunction with magnitude-frequency statistics and an empirical relation between moment and magnitude to estimate the maximum possible sized tremor for a given mining situation. Second, it is shown that the 'energy release rate,' a commonly-used parameter for predicting underground seismic hazard, may be misleading in that the importance of overburden stress, or depth, is overstated. Third, results involving the relation between peak velocity and magnitude, magnitude-frequency statistics, and the maximum possible magnitude are applied to the problem of estimating the frequency at which design limits of certain underground support equipment are likely to be exceeded.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onur, Tuna; Gok, Rengin; Abdulnaby, Wathiq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al.,more » 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.« less

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

Seismic hazard in the Intermountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haller, Kathleen; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 national seismic-hazard model for the conterminous United States incorporates new scientific results and important model adjustments. The current model includes updates to the historical catalog, which is spatially smoothed using both fixed-length and adaptive-length smoothing kernels. Fault-source characterization improved by adding faults, revising rates of activity, and incorporating new results from combined inversions of geologic and geodetic data. The update also includes a new suite of published ground motion models. Changes in probabilistic ground motion are generally less than 10% in most of the Intermountain West compared to the prior assessment, and ground-motion hazard in four Intermountain West cities illustrates the range and magnitude of change in the region. Seismic hazard at reference sites in Boise and Reno increased as much as 10%, whereas hazard in Salt Lake City decreased 5–6%. The largest change was in Las Vegas, where hazard increased 32–35%.

Seismic and tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rodriguez, Rafael W.; ten Brink, Uri S.

1999-01-01

Executive SummaryPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The region was subject in historical times to large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. A major downward tilt of the sea floor north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, large submarine rockslides, and an unusually large negative gravity anomaly are also indicative of a tectonically active region. Scientists have so far failed to explain the deformation of this region in a coherent and predictable picture, such as in California, and this has hampered their ability to assess seismic and tsunami hazards in the region. The NE corner of the Caribbean is unique among the seismically-active regions of the United States in that it is mostly covered by water. This fact presents an additional challenge for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation.The workshop, convened in San Juan on March 23-24, 1999, was "historic" in that it brought together for the first time a broad spectrum of scientists, engineers, and public and private sector officials who deal with such diverse questions as tectonic models, probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, prediction of tsunami runup, strong ground motion, building codes, stability of man-made structures, and the public’s preparedness for natural disasters. It was an opportunity for all the participants to find out how their own activity fit into the broad picture of science and how it aids society in hazard assessment and mitigation. In addition, the workshop was offered as a continuing education course at the Colegio de Ingenieros y Agrimensores de Puerto Rico, which assured a rapid dissemination of the results to the local community. A news conference which took place during the workshop alerted the public to the efforts of the USGS, other Federal agencies, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, universities and the private sector.During the first day of the workshop, participants from universities, federal institutions, and consulting firms in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the continental U.S., Dominican Republic, and Europe reviewed the present state of knowledge including a review and discussion of present plate models, recent GPS and seismic reflection data, seismicity, paleoseismology, and tsunamis. The state of earthquake/tsunami studies in Puerto Rico was presented by several faculty members from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. A preliminary seismic hazard map was presented by the USGS and previous hazard maps and economic loss assessments were considered. During the second day, the participants divided into working groups and prepared specific recommendations for future activities in the region along the six following topics below. Highlights of these recommended activities are:Marine geology and geophysics – Acquire deep-penetration seismic reflection and refraction data, deploy temporary ocean bottom seismometer arrays to record earthquakes, collect high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar data of the region, and in particular, the near shore region, and conduct focussed high-resolution seismic studies around faults. Determine slip rates of specific offshore faults. Assemble a GIS database for available marine geological and geophysical data.Paleoseismology and active faults - Field reconnaissance aimed at identifying Quaternary faults and determining their paleoseismic chronology and slip rates, as well as identifying and dating paleoliquefaction features from large earthquakes. Quaternary mapping of marine terraces, fluvial terraces and basins, beach ridges, etc., to establish framework for understanding neotectonic deformation of the island. Interpretation of aerial photography to identify possible Quaternary faults.Earthquake seismology – Determine an empirical seismic attenuation function using observations from local seismic networks and recently-installed broad-band stations. Evaluate existing earthquake catalogs from local networks and regional stations, complete the catalogs. Transcribe the pre-1991 network data from 9-track tape onto more stable archival media. Calibrate instruments of local networks. Use GPS measurement to constrain deformation rates used in seismic-hazard maps.Engineering – Prepare liquefaction susceptibility maps for the urban areas. Update and improve databases for types of site conditions. Collect site effect observations and near-surface geophysical measurements for future local (urban-area) hazard maps. Expand the number of instruments in the strong motion program. Develop fragility curves for Puerto Rico construction types and details, and carry out laboratory testing on selected types of mass-produced construction. Consider tsunami design in shoreline construction projects.Tsunami hazard - Extract tsunami observations from archives and develop a Caribbean historical tsunami database. Analyze prehistoric tsunami deposits. Collect accurate, up-to-date, near-shore topography and bathymetry for accurate inundation models. Prepare tsunami flooding and evacuation maps. Establish a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Evaluate local, regional, national, and global seismic networks and equipment, and their role in a tsunami warning system.Societal concerns – Prepare warning messages, protocols, and evacuation routes for earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Advocate enforcement of existing building codes. Prepare non-technical hazard assessment maps for political and educational uses. Raise the awareness of potentially affected populations by presentations at elementary schools, by the production of a tsunami video, and by distribution of earthquake preparedness manuals in newspaper supplements. Promote partnerships at state and federal level for long-term earthquake and tsunami hazard mitigation. This partnership should also include the private sector such as the insurance industry, telecommunication companies, and the engineering community.The following reports of the various working groups are the cumulative recommendations of the community of scientists, engineers, and public officials, who participated in the workshop. The list of participants and the workshop’s agenda are given in the appendix.Marine and Geology and Geophysics Working GroupPaleoseismology and Active Faults Working GroupJoint Working Group for Earthquake Seismology and EngineeringTsunami Working GroupSocietal Concerns Working Group

Exploring the Differences Between the European (SHARE) and the Reference Italian Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visini, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.; Rovida, A.; Stucchi, M.

2014-12-01

The recent release of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Europe by the SHARE project (Giardini et al., 2013, www.share-eu.org) arises questions about the comparison between its results for Italy and the official Italian seismic hazard model (MPS04; Stucchi et al., 2011) adopted by the building code. The goal of such a comparison is identifying the main input elements that produce the differences between the two models. It is worthwhile to remark that each PSHA is realized with data and knowledge available at the time of the release. Therefore, even if a new model provides estimates significantly different from the previous ones that does not mean that old models are wrong, but probably that the current knowledge is strongly changed and improved. Looking at the hazard maps with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (adopted as the standard input in the Italian building code), the SHARE model shows increased expected values with respect to the MPS04 model, up to 70% for PGA. However, looking in detail at all output parameters of both the models, we observe a different behaviour for other spectral accelerations. In fact, for spectral periods greater than 0.3 s, the current reference PSHA for Italy proposes higher values than the SHARE model for many and large areas. This observation suggests that this behaviour could not be due to a different definition of seismic sources and relevant seismicity rates; it mainly seems the result of the adoption of recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that estimate higher values for PGA and for accelerations with periods lower than 0.3 s and lower values for higher periods with respect to old GMPEs. Another important set of tests consisted in analysing separately the PSHA results obtained by the three source models adopted in SHARE (i.e., area sources, fault sources with background, and a refined smoothed seismicity model), whereas MPS04 only uses area sources. Results seem to confirm the strong impact of the new generation GMPEs on the seismic hazard estimates. Giardini D. et al., 2013. Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource, doi:10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE. Stucchi M. et al., 2011. Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 1885-1911.

Learnings from the Monitoring of Induced Seismicity in Western Canada over the Past Three Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yenier, E.; Moores, A. O.; Baturan, D.; Spriggs, N.

2017-12-01

In response to induced seismicity observed in western Canada, existing public networks have been densified and a number of private networks have been deployed to closely monitor the earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing operations in the region. These networks have produced an unprecedented volume of seismic data, which can be used to map pre-existing geological structures and understand their activation mechanisms. Here, we present insights gained over the past three years from induced seismicity monitoring (ISM) for some of the most active operators in Canada. First, we discuss the benefits of high-quality ISM data sets for making operational decisions and how their value largely depends on choice of instrumentation, seismic network design and data processing techniques. Using examples from recent research studies, we illustrate the key role of robust modeling of regional source, attenuation and site attributes on the accuracy of event magnitudes, ground motion estimates and induced seismicity hazard assessment. Finally, acknowledging that the ultimate goal of ISM networks is assisting operators to manage induced seismic risk, we share some examples of how ISM data products can be integrated into existing protocols for developing effective risk management strategies.

Salton Trough Post-seismic Afterslip, Viscoelastic Response, and Contribution to Regional Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.

2012-12-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah M7.2 April 4 2010 earthquake in Baja California may have affected accumulated hazard to Southern California cities due to loading of regional faults including the Elsinore, San Jacinto and southern San Andreas, faults which already have over a century of tectonic loading. We examine changes observed via multiple seismic and geodetic techniques, including micro seismicity and proposed seismicity-based indicators of hazard, high-quality fault models, the Plate Boundary Observatory GNSS array (with 174 stations showing post-seismic transients with greater than 1 mm amplitude), and interferometric radar maps from UAVSAR (aircraft) flights, showing a network of aseismic fault slip events at distances up to 60 km from the end of the surface rupture. Finite element modeling is used to compute the expected coseismic motions at GPS stations with general agreement, including coseismic uplift at sites ~200 km north of the rupture. Postseismic response is also compared, with GNSS and also with the CIG software "RELAX." An initial examination of hazard is made comparing micro seismicity-based metrics, fault models, and changes to coulomb stress on nearby faults using the finite element model. Comparison of seismicity with interferograms and historic earthquakes show aseismic slip occurs on fault segments that have had earthquakes in the last 70 years, while other segments show no slip at the surface but do show high triggered seismicity. UAVSAR-based estimates of fault slip can be incorporated into the finite element model to correct Coloumb stress change.

Can repeating glacial seismic events be used to monitor stress changes within the underlying volcano? -Case study from the glacier overlain Katla volcano, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonsdottir, K.; Vogfjord, K. S.; Bean, C. J.; Martini, F.

2013-12-01

The glacier overlain Katla volcano in South Iceland, is one of the most active and hazardous volcano in Europe. Katla eruptions result in hazardous glacial floods and intense tephra fall. On average there are eruptions every 50 years but the volcano is long overdue and we are now witnessing the longest quiescence period in 1000 years or since the settlement. Because of the hazard the volcano poses, it is under constant surveillance and gets a good share of the seismic stations from the national seismic network. Every year the seismic network records thousands of seismic events at Katla with magnitudes seldom exceeding M3. The bulk of the seismicity is however not due to volcano tectonics but seems to be caused mainly by shallow processes involving glacial deformation. Katla's ice filled caldera forms a glacier plateau of several hundred meters thick ice. The 9x14 km oval caldera is surrounded by higher rims where the glacier in some places gently and in others abruptly falls off tens and up to hundred meters to the surrounding lowland. The glacier surface is marked with dozen depressions or cauldrons which manifest geothermal activity below, probably coinciding with circular faults around the caldera. Our current understanding is that there are several glacial processes which cause seismicity; these include dry calving, where steep valley glaciers fall off cliffs and movements of glacier ice as the cauldrons deform due to hydraulic changes and geothermal activity at the glacier/bedrock boundary. These glacial events share a common feature of containing low frequency (2-4 hz) and long coda. Because of their shallow origin, surface waves are prominent. In our analysis we use waveforms from all of Katla's seismic events between years 2003-2013, with the criteria M>1 and minimum 4 p-wave picks. We correlate the waveforms of these events with each other and group them into families of highly similar events. Looking at the occurrence of these families we find that individual families are usually clustered in time over several months, and sometimes families may reappear even up to several years later. Using families including many events and covering long periods (10-20 months) we compare the coda (the tail) of individual events within a family. This is repeated for all the surrounding stations. The analysis, coda wave interferometry (cwi) is a correlation method that builds on the fact that changes in stress in the edifice lead to changes in seismic velocities. The coda waves are highly sensitive to small stress changes. By using a repeating source, implying we have the same source mechanism and the same path, we can track temporal stress changes in the medium between the source and the receiver. Preliminary results from Katla suggest that by using the repeating glacial events and the coda wave interferometry technique we observe annual seismic velocity changes around the volcano of ca. 0.7%. We find that seismic velocities increase from January through July and decrease in August to December. These changes can be explained by pore-water pressure changes and/or loading and de-loading of the overlain glacier. We do not find immediate precursors for an impending eruption at Katla; however we now have a better understanding of its background seismicity.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

Analogue modelling of the rupture process of vulnerable stalagmites in an earthquake simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Hegymegi, Erika; Esterhazy, Sofi; Mónus, Péter

2017-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. To determine this critical value for the horizontal ground acceleration more precisely we need to understand the failure process of these intact and vulnerable stalagmites. More detailed information of the vulnerable stalagmites' rupture is required, and we have to know how much it depends on the shape and the substance of the investigated stalagmite. Predicting stalagmite failure limits using numerical modelling is faced with a number of approximations, e.g. from generating a manageable digital model. Thus it seemed reasonable to investigate the problem by analogue modelling as well. The advantage of analogue modelling among other things is that nearly real circumstances can be produced by simple and quick laboratory methods. The model sample bodies were made from different types of concrete and were cut out from real broken stalagmites originated from the investigated caves. These bodies were reduced-scaled with similar shape as the original, investigated stalagmites. During the measurements we could change both the shape and the material and the time series of acting horizontal acceleration. Comparing the results from analogue to numerical modelling could improve the accuracy of long-term seismic hazard assessment.

Volcano seismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chouet, B.

2003-01-01

A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic regimes and determining their physical and chemical properties; and (3) quantitatively understanding multiphase fluid flow behavior under dynamic volcanic conditions. To realize these goals, not only must we learn how to translate seismic observations into quantitative information about fluid dynamics, but we also must determine the underlying physics that governs vesiculation, fragmentation, and the collapse of bubble-rich suspensions to form separate melt and vapor. Refined understanding of such processes-essential for quantitative short-term eruption forecasts-will require multidisciplinary research involving detailed field measurements, laboratory experiments, and numerical modeling.

Submarine landslide and tsunami hazards offshore southern Alaska: Seismic strengthening versus rapid sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawyer, Derek E.; Reece, Robert S.; Gulick, Sean P. S.; Lenz, Brandi L.

2017-08-01

The southern Alaskan offshore margin is prone to submarine landslides and tsunami hazards due to seismically active plate boundaries and extreme sedimentation rates from glacially enhanced mountain erosion. We examine the submarine landslide potential with new shear strength measurements acquired by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 341 on the continental slope and Surveyor Fan. These data reveal lower than expected sediment strength. Contrary to other active margins where seismic strengthening enhances slope stability, the high-sedimentation margin offshore southern Alaska behaves like a passive margin from a shear strength perspective. We interpret that seismic strengthening occurs but is offset by high sedimentation rates and overpressure. This conclusion is supported by shear strength outside of the fan that follow an active margin trend. More broadly, seismically active margins with wet-based glaciers are susceptible to submarine landslide hazards because of the combination of high sedimentation rates and earthquake shaking.

Analysis of Complex Marine Hazards on the Romanian Black Sea Shelf Using Combined Geophysical Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samoila, I. V.; Radulescu, V.; Moise, G.; Diaconu, A.; Radulescu, R.

2017-12-01

Combined geophysical acquisition technologies including High Resolution 2D Seismic (HR2D), Multi-Beam Echo-Sounding (MBES), Sub-Bottom Profiling (SBP) and Magnetometry were used in the Western Black Sea (offshore Romania) to identify possible geohazards, such as gas escaping surface sediments and tectonic hazard areas up to 1 km below the seafloor. The National Project was funded by the Research and Innovation Ministry of Romania, and has taken place over 1.5 years with the purpose of creating risk maps for the surveyed pilot area. Using an array of geophysical methods and creating a workflow to identify geohazard susceptible areas on the Romanian Black Sea continental shelf is important and beneficial for future research projects. The SBP and MBES data show disturbed areas that can be interpreted as gas escapes on the surface of the seafloor, and some escapes were confirmed on the HR2D profiles. Shallow gas indicators like gas chimneys and acoustic blanking are usually delimited by vertical, sub-vertical and/or quasi-horizontal faults that mark possible hazard areas on shallow sedimentary sections. Interpreted seismic profiles show three main markers: one delimiting the Pliocene-Quaternary boundary and two for the Miocene (Upper and Lower). Vertical and quasi-horizontal faults are characteristic for the Upper Miocene, while the Lower Miocene has NW-SE horizontal faults. Faults and possible hazard areas were marked on seismic sections and were further correlated with the MBES, SBP, Magnetometry and previously recorded data, such as earthquake epicenters scattered offshore in the Western Black Sea. The main fault systems likely to cause those earthquakes also aid the migration of gas if the faults are not sealed. We observed that the gas escapes were correlated with faults described on the recent seismic profiles. Mapping hazard areas will have an important contribution to better understand the recent evolution of the Western Black Sea basin but also for projecting the future offshore infrastructures. The resulting correlations in the geophysical data allowed us to create a workflow that shows desirable results for this area, and can be applied to other interest areas successfully and cost effectively.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

Studying local earthquakes in the area Baltic-Bothnia Megashear using the data of the POLENET/LAPNET temporary array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usoltseva, Olga; Kozlovskaya, Elena

2016-07-01

Earthquakes in areas within continental plates are still not completely understood, and progress on understanding intraplate seismicity is slow due to a short history of instrumental seismology and sparse regional seismic networks in seismically non-active areas. However, knowledge about position and depth of seismogenic structures in such areas is necessary in order to estimate seismic hazard for such critical facilities such as nuclear power plants and nuclear waste deposits. In the present paper we address the problem of seismicity in the intraplate area of northern Fennoscandia using the information on local events recorded by the POLENET/LAPNET (Polar Earth Observing Network) temporary seismic array during the International Polar Year 2007-2009. We relocate the seismic events using the program HYPOELLIPS (a computer program for determining local earthquake hypocentral parameters) and grid search method. We use the first arrivals of P waves of local events in order to calculate a 3-D tomographic P wave velocity model of the uppermost crust (down to 20 km) for a selected region inside the study area and show that the velocity heterogeneities in the upper crust correlate well with known tectonic units. We compare the position of the velocity heterogeneities with the seismogenic structures delineated by epicentres of relocated events and demonstrate that these structures generally do not correlate with the crustal units formed as a result of crustal evolution in the Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic. On the contrary, they correlate well with the postglacial faults located in the area of the Baltic-Bothnia Megashear (BBMS). Hypocentres of local events have depths down to 30 km. We also obtain the focal mechanism of a selected event with good data quality. The focal mechanism is of oblique type with strike-slip prevailing. Our results demonstrate that the Baltic-Bothnia Megashear is an important large-scale, reactivated tectonic structure that has to be taken into account when estimating seismic hazard in northern Fennoscandia.

United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s maps of earthquake shaking hazards provide information essential to creating and updating the seismic design provisions of building codes and insurance rates used in the United States. Periodic revisions of these maps incorporate the results of new research. Buildings, bridges, highways, and utilities built to meet modern seismic design provisions are better able to withstand earthquakes, not only saving lives but also enabling critical activities to continue with less disruption. These maps can also help people assess the hazard to their homes or places of work and can also inform insurance rates.

Probabilistic seismic hazard characterization and design parameters for the Pantex Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernreuter, D. L.; Foxall, W.; Savy, J. B.

1998-10-19

The Hazards Mitigation Center at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) updated the seismic hazard and design parameters at the Pantex Plant. The probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) estimates were first updated using the latest available data and knowledge from LLNL (1993, 1998), Frankel et al. (1996), and other relevant recent studies from several consulting companies. Special attention was given to account for the local seismicity and for the system of potentially active faults associated with the Amarillo-Wichita uplift. Aleatory (random) uncertainty was estimated from the available data and the epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty was taken from results of similar studies. Special attentionmore » was given to soil amplification factors for the site. Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped uniform hazard spectra were calculated for six return periods (100 yr., 500 yr., 1000 yr., 2000 yr., 10,000 yr., and 100,000 yr.). The design parameters were calculated following DOE standards (DOE-STD-1022 to 1024). Response spectra for design or evaluation of Performance Category 1 through 4 structures, systems, and components are presented.« less

Evaluating changes of the Bárdarbunga caldera using repeating earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jónsdóttir, K.; Hjorleifsdottir, V.; Hooper, A.; Rivalta, E.; Rodriguez Cardozo, F. R.; Gudmundsson, M. T.; Geirsson, H.; Barsotti, S.

2017-12-01

The natural hazard monitoring in Iceland relies heavily on seismic monitoring. With an automated system for detecting earthquakes, locating and evaluating their focal mechanisms, 500 earthquakes are recorded weekly with magnitudes down to -0.5. During the Bárdarbunga volcanic unrest in 2014-2015 the seismicity intensified and up to thousands of earthquakes were recorded daily. The unrest was accompanied by caldera collapse, a rare event that has not been monitored in such detail before, providing a unique opportunity for better understanding the volcanic structure and processes. The 8x11 km caldera gradually subsided, triggering thousands of events with 80 earthquakes between M5-M5.8. A subsidence bowl up to 65 m deep was formed, while about 1.8 km3 of magma drained laterally along a subterranean path, forming flood basalt 47 km northeast of the volcano. The caldera collapse and magma outflow gradually declined until the eruption ended some 6 months later (27 February 2015). The seismicity continued to decline, both in the far end of the dyke as well as within the caldera for a few months. However, half a year later (in September 2015) seismicity within the caldera started to increase again and has been rather constant since, with tens of earthquakes recorded on the caldera rim every week and biggest events reaching magnitude 4.4. Here we present a seismic waveform correlation analysis where we look for similar repeating waveforms of the large caldera dataset. The analysis reveals a dramatic change occurring between February and May 2015. By allowing for anticorrelation we find that the earthquake's polarity reverses sign completely. The timing coincides with the ending of the caldera collapse and the eruption. Our results suggest that caldera fault movements were reversed soon after the eruption ended in spring 2015 when we also observe outwards movement of GPS stations around the caldera, indicating re-inflation of the magma chamber half a year before any seismicity increase was detected. These data and their interpretation are helpful to improve our understanding of the current status of the volcano and, eventually, to perform a more accurate and reliable hazard assessment.

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation for the Cuban building code update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, J.; Llanes-Buron, C.

2013-05-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in response to a revision and update of the Cuban building code (NC-46-99) for earthquake-resistant building construction. The hazard assessment have been done according to the standard probabilistic approach (Cornell, 1968) and importing the procedures adopted by other nations dealing with the problem of revising and updating theirs national building codes. Problems of earthquake catalogue treatment, attenuation of peak and spectral ground acceleration, as well as seismic source definition have been rigorously analyzed and a logic-tree approach was used to represent the inevitable uncertainties encountered through the whole seismic hazard estimation process. The seismic zonation proposed here, is formed by a map where it is reflected the behaviour of the spectral acceleration values for short (0.2 seconds) and large (1.0 seconds) periods on rock conditions with a 1642 -year return period, which being considered as maximum credible earthquake (ASCE 07-05). In addition, other three design levels are proposed (severe earthquake: with a 808 -year return period, ordinary earthquake: with a 475 -year return period and minimum earthquake: with a 225 -year return period). The seismic zonation proposed here fulfils the international standards (IBC-ICC) as well as the world tendencies in this thematic.

Re-evaluation and updating of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijer, Carla; Harajli, Mohamed; Sadek, Salah

2016-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken to evaluate the implications of the newly mapped offshore Mount Lebanon Thrust (MLT) fault system on the seismic hazard of Lebanon and the current seismic zoning and design parameters used by the local engineering community. This re-evaluation is critical, given that the MLT is located at close proximity to the major cities and economic centers of the country. The updated seismic hazard was assessed using probabilistic methods of analysis. The potential sources of seismic activities that affect Lebanon were integrated along with any/all newly established characteristics within an updated database which includes the newly mapped fault system. The earthquake recurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumental seismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken to evaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per Uniform Building Code (UBC) 1997), as well as 0.2 and 1 s peak spectral acceleration contours, based on 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per International Building Code (IBC) 2012), were also developed. Finally, spectral charts for the main coastal cities of Beirut, Tripoli, Jounieh, Byblos, Saida, and Tyre are provided for use by designers.

Delineation of tectonic provinces of New York state as a component of seismic-hazard evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fakundiny, R.H.

2004-01-01

Seismic-hazard evaluations in the eastern United States must be based on interpretations of the composition and form of Proterozoic basement-rock terranes and overlying Paleozoic strata, and on factors that can cause relative movements among their units, rather than Phanerozoic orogenic structures, which may be independent of modern tectonics. The tectonic-province concept is a major part of both probabilistic and deterministic seismic-hazard evaluations, yet those that have been proposed to date have not attempted to geographically correlate modern earthquakes with regional basement structure. Comparison of basement terrane (megablock) boundaries with the spatial pattern of modern seismicity may lead to the mechanically sound definition of tectonic provinces, and thus, better seismic-hazard evaluation capability than is currently available. Delineation of megablock boundaries will require research on the many factors that affect their structure and movement. This paper discusses and groups these factors into two broad categories-megablock tectonics in relation to seismicity and regional horizontal-compressive stresses, with megablock tectonics divided into subcategories of basement, overlying strata, regional lineaments, basement tectonic terranes, earthquake epicenter distribution, and epeirogeny, and compressive stresses divided into pop-ups and the contemporary maximum horizontal-compressive stress field. A list presenting four to nine proposed research topics for each of these categories is given at the end.

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolathayar, Sreevalsa; Sitharam, T. G.; Vipin, K. S.

2012-10-01

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6°-38°N and 68°-98°E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 10 × 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Considerations in comparing the U.S. Geological Survey one‐year induced‐seismicity hazard models with “Did You Feel It?” and instrumental data

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Isabel; Liu, Taojun; Luco, Nicolas; Liel, Abbie

2017-01-01

The recent steep increase in seismicity rates in Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and other parts of the central United States led the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop, for the first time, a probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for one year (2016) that incorporates induced seismicity. In this study, we explore a process to ground‐truth the hazard model by comparing it with two databases of observations: modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data from the “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system and peak ground acceleration (PGA) values from instrumental data. Because the 2016 hazard model was heavily based on earthquake catalogs from 2014 to 2015, this initial comparison utilized observations from these years. Annualized exceedance rates were calculated with the DYFI and instrumental data for direct comparison with the model. These comparisons required assessment of the options for converting hazard model results and instrumental data from PGA to MMI for comparison with the DYFI data. In addition, to account for known differences that affect the comparisons, the instrumental PGA and DYFI data were declustered, and the hazard model was adjusted for local site conditions. With these adjustments, examples at sites with the most data show reasonable agreement in the exceedance rates. However, the comparisons were complicated by the spatial and temporal completeness of the instrumental and DYFI observations. Furthermore, most of the DYFI responses are in the MMI II–IV range, whereas the hazard model is oriented toward forecasts at higher ground‐motion intensities, usually above about MMI IV. Nevertheless, the study demonstrates some of the issues that arise in making these comparisons, thereby informing future efforts to ground‐truth and improve hazard modeling for induced‐seismicity applications.

Seismic Hazard Estimates Using Ill-defined Macroseismic Data at Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albarello, D.; Mucciarelli, M.

- A new approach is proposed to the seismic hazard estimate based on documentary data concerning local history of seismic effects. The adopted methodology allows for the use of ``poor'' data, such as the macroseismic ones, within a formally coherent approach that permits overcoming a number of problems connected to the forcing of available information in the frame of ``standard'' methodologies calibrated on the use of instrumental data. The use of the proposed methodology allows full exploitation of all the available information (that for many towns in Italy covers several centuries) making possible a correct use of macroseismic data characterized by different levels of completeness and reliability. As an application of the proposed methodology, seismic hazard estimates are presented for two towns located in Northern Italy: Bologna and Carpi.

Real-time Seismicity Evaluation as a Tool for the Earthquake and Tsunami Short-Term Hazard Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.

2010-12-01

Seismic activity is a 3-D process varying in the space-time-magnitude domains. When in a target area the short-term activity deviates significantly from the usual (background) seismicity, then the modes of activity may include swarms, temporary quiescence, foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, doublets and multiplets. This implies that making decision for civil protection purposes requires short-term seismic hazard assessment and evaluation. When a sizable earthquake takes place the critical question is about the nature of the event: mainshock or a foreshock which foreshadows the occurrence of a biger one? Also, the seismicity increase or decrease in a target area may signify either precursory changes or just transient seismicity variations (e.g. swarms) which do not conclude with a strong earthquake. Therefore, the real-time seismicity evaluation is the backbone of the short-term hazard assessment. The algorithm FORMA (Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock) is presented which detects and updates automatically and in near real-time significant variations of the seismicity according to the earthquake data flow from the monitoring center. The detection of seismicity variations is based on an expert system which for a given target area indicates the mode of seismicity from the variation of two parameters: the seismicity rate, r, and the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation. Alert levels are produced according to the significance levels of the changes of r and b. The good performance of FORMA was verified retrospectively in several earthquake cases, e.g. for the L’ Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake sequence (Mmax 6.3) (Papadopoulos et al., 2010). Real-time testing was executed during January 2010 with the strong earthquake activity (Mmax 5.6) in the Corinth Rift, Central Greece. Evaluation outputs were publicly documented on a nearly daily basis with successful results. Evaluation of coastal and submarine earthquake activity is also of crucial importance for the short-term hazard assessment for near-field tsunamis, given that the time constraints for early warning is on the order of few minutes up to less than 1 hour. It is proposed that warning procedures for near-field tsunamis in a target area may benefit by combining a tsunami decision matrix with short-term seismic hazard evaluation. Simulated procedures incorporating retrospective tests in the Mediterranean Sea proved encouraging.

Seismic images and fault relations of the Santa Monica thrust fault, West Los Angeles, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catchings, R.D.; Gandhok, G.; Goldman, M.R.; Okaya, D.

2001-01-01

In May 1997, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Southern California (USC) acquired high-resolution seismic reflection and refraction images on the grounds of the Wadsworth Veterans Administration Hospital (WVAH) in the city of Los Angeles (Fig. 1a,b). The objective of the seismic survey was to better understand the near-surface geometry and faulting characteristics of the Santa Monica fault zone. In this report, we present seismic images, an interpretation of those images, and a comparison of our results with results from studies by Dolan and Pratt (1997), Pratt et al. (1998) and Gibbs et al. (2000). The Santa Monica fault is one of the several northeast-southwest-trending, north-dipping, reverse faults that extend through the Los Angeles metropolitan area (Fig. 1a). Through much of area, the Santa Monica fault trends subparallel to the Hollywood fault, but the two faults apparently join into a single fault zone to the southwest and to the northeast (Dolan et al., 1995). The Santa Monica and Hollywood faults may be part of a larger fault system that extends from the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse Ranges. Crook et al. (1983) refer to this fault system as the Malibu Coast-Santa Monica-Raymond-Cucamonga fault system. They suggest that these faults have not formed a contiguous zone since the Pleistocene and conclude that each of the faults should be treated as a separate fault with respect to seismic hazards. However, Dolan et al. (1995) suggest that the Hollywood and Santa Monica faults are capable of generating Mw 6.8 and Mw 7.0 earthquakes, respectively. Thus, regardless of whether the overall fault system is connected and capable of rupturing in one event, individually, each of the faults present a sizable earthquake hazard to the Los Angeles metropolitan area. If, however, these faults are connected, and they were to rupture along a continuous fault rupture, the resulting hazard would be even greater. Although the Santa Monica fault represents a hazard to millions of people, its lateral extent and rupture history are not well known, due largely to limited knowledge of the fault location, geometry, and relationship to other faults. The Santa Monica fault has been obscured at the surface by alluvium and urbanization. For example, Dolan et al. (1995) could find only one 200-m-long stretch of the Santa Monica fault that was not covered by either streets or buildings. Of the 19-km length onshore section of the Santa Monica fault, its apparent location has been delineated largely on the basis of geomorphic features and oil-well drilling. Seismic imaging efforts, in combination with other investigative methods, may be the best approach in locating and understanding the Santa Monica fault in the Los Angeles region. This investigation and another recent seismic imaging investigation (Pratt et al., 1998) were undertaken to resolve the near-surface location, fault geometry, and faulting relations associated with the Santa Monica fault.

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

2009-01-01

There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

Velocity changes at Volcán de Colima: Seismic and Experimental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Oliver; Lavallée, Yan; De Angelis, Silvio; Varley, Nick; Reyes-Dávila, Gabriel; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raúl; Hornby, Adrian; Wall, Richard; Kendrick, Jackie

2016-04-01

Immediately prior to dome-building eruptions, volcano-seismic swarms are a direct consequence of strain localisation in the ascending magma. A deformation mechanism map of magma subjected to strain localisation will help develop accurate numerical models, which, coupled to an understanding of the mechanics driving monitored geophysical signals prior to lava eruption, will enhance forecasts. Here we present how seismic data from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, is combined with experimental work to give insights into fracturing in and around magma. Volcán de Colima is a dome-forming volcano that has been almost-continuously erupting since November 1998. We use coda-wave interferometry to quantify small changes in seismic velocity structure between pairs of similar earthquakes, employing waveforms from clusters of repeating earthquakes. The changes in all pairs of events were then used together to create a continuous function of velocity change at all stations within 7 km of the volcano from October to December 1998. We complement our seismic data with acoustic emission data from tensional experiments using samples collected at Volcán de Colima. Decreases in velocity and frequency reflect changes in the sample properties prior to failure. By comparing experimental and seismic observations, we may place constraints on the conditions of the natural seismogenic processes. Using a combination of field and experimental data promises a greater understanding of the processes affecting the rise of magma during an eruption. This will help with the challenge of forecasting and hazard mitigation during dome-forming eruptions worldwide.

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Fernandez, Mariano; Assatourians, Karen; Jimenez, Maria-Jose

2018-01-01

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Kivu rift segment based on a new seismotectonic zonation model (western branch, East African Rift system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi, Mwene Ntabwoba Stanislas; Bondo, Silvanos Fiama; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder

2017-10-01

In the frame of the Belgian GeoRisCA multi-risk assessment project focusing on the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu rift segment in the central part of the western branch of the East African rift system. As the geological and tectonic setting of this region is incompletely known, especially the part lying in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we compiled homogeneous cross-border tectonic and neotectonic maps. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue based on the ISC reviewed earthquake catalogue and supplemented by other local catalogues and new macroseismic epicenter data spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. The final catalogue used for the seismic hazard assessment spans 60 years, from 1955 to 2015, with 359 events and a magnitude of completeness of 4.4. The seismotectonic zonation into 7 seismic source areas was done on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined by the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method. Seismic hazard maps have been computed using existing attenuation laws with the Crisis 2012 software. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates. They also vary laterally in function of the tectonic setting, with the lowest value in the volcanically active Virunga - Rutshuru zone, highest in the currently non-volcanic parts of Lake Kivu, Rusizi valley and North Tanganyika rift zone, and intermediate in the regions flanking the axial rift zone.

Evaluating the Use of Declustering for Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2016-12-01

The recent dramatic seismicity rate increase in the central and eastern US (CEUS) has motivated the development of seismic hazard assessments for induced seismicity (e.g., Petersen et al., 2016). Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) relies fundamentally on the assumption that seismicity is Poissonian (Cornell, BSSA, 1968); therefore, the earthquake catalogs used in PSHA are typically declustered (e.g., Petersen et al., 2014) even though this may remove earthquakes that may cause damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015; 2016). In some induced earthquake sequences in the CEUS, the standard declustering can remove up to 90% of the sequence, reducing the estimated seismicity rate by a factor of 10 compared to estimates from the complete catalog. In tectonic regions the reduction is often only about a factor of 2. We investigate how three declustering methods treat induced seismicity: the window-based Gardner-Knopoff (GK) algorithm, often used for PSHA (Gardner and Knopoff, BSSA, 1974); the link-based Reasenberg algorithm (Reasenberg, JGR,1985); and a stochastic declustering method based on a space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002). We apply these methods to three catalogs that likely contain some induced seismicity. For the Guy-Greenbrier, AR earthquake swarm from 2010-2013, declustering reduces the seismicity rate by factors of 6-14, depending on the algorithm. In northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas from 2010-2015, the reduction varies from factors of 1.5-20. In the Salton Trough of southern California from 1975-2013, the rate is reduced by factors of 3-20. Stochastic declustering tends to remove the most events, followed by the GK method, while the Reasenberg method removes the fewest. Given that declustering and choice of algorithm have such a large impact on the resulting seismicity rate estimates, we suggest that more accurate hazard assessments may be found using the complete catalog.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

2018-02-01

The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, M.D.; Mueller, C.S.

2011-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2010-01-01

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

Using Tectonic Tremor to Constrain Seismic-wave Attenuation in Cascadia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littel, G.; Thomas, A.; Baltay, A.

2017-12-01

In addition to fast, seismic slip, many subduction zones also host slow, largely aseismic slip, accompanied by a weak seismic signal known as tectonic tremor. Tremor is a small amplitude, low-frequency seismic signal that originates at the plate interface, down-dip of where large earthquakes typically occur. The Cascadia subduction zone has not seen a large megathrust earthquake since 1700, yet its recurrence interval of 350-500 years motivates heightened interest in understanding the seismic hazard of the region. Of great importance is to understand the degree to which waves are attenuated as they leave the plate interface and travel towards populated regions of interest. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion to a number of parameters, including earthquake magnitude, depth, style of faulting, and anelastic attenuation, and are typically determined empirically from earthquake ground motion recordings. In Cascadia, however, earthquakes of the moderate size typically used to constrain GMPEs occur relatively infrequently compared to tectonic tremor events, which, in contrast, occur periodically approximately every 10-19 months. Studies have shown that the abundant tectonic tremor in Cascadia, despite its small amplitudes, can be used to constrain seismic wave attenuation in GMPEs. Here we quantify seismic wave attenuation and determine its spatial variations in Cascadia by performing an inversion using tremor ground motion amplitudes, taken as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) from 1 min window waveforms of each individual tremor event. We estimate the anelastic attenuation parameter for varying regional sections along the Cascadia margin. Changes in seismic-wave attenuation along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could result in significantly different ground motions in the event of a very large earthquake, hence quantifying attenuation may help to better estimate the severity of shaking in densely populated metropolitan areas such as Vancouver, Seattle and Portland.

Field and experimental evidence for coseismic ruptures along shallow creeping faults in forearc sediments of the Crotone Basin, South Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balsamo, Fabrizio; Aldega, Luca; De Paola, Nicola; Faoro, Igor; Storti, Fabrizio

2014-05-01

Large seismic slip occurring along shallow creeping faults in tectonically active areas represents an unsolved paradox, which is largely due to our poor understanding of the mechanics governing creeping faults, and to the lack of documented geological evidence showing how coseismic rupturing overprints creep in near-surface conditions. In this contribution we integrate field, petrophysical, mineralogical and friction data to characterize the signature of coseismic ruptures propagating along shallow creeping faults affecting unconsolidated forearc sediments of the seismically active Crotone Basin, in South Italy. Field observations of fault zones show widespread foliated cataclasites in fault cores, locally overprinted by sharp slip surfaces decorated by thin (0.5-1.5 cm) black gouge layers. Compared to foliated cataclasites, black gouges have much lower grain size, porosity and permeability, which may have facilitated slip weakening by thermal fluid pressurization. Moreover, black gouges are characterized by distinct mineralogical assemblages compatible with high temperatures (180-200°C) due to frictional heating during seismic slip. Foliated cataclasites and black gouges were also produced by laboratory friction experiments performed on host sediments at sub-seismic (≤ 0.1 m/s) and seismic (1 m/s) slip rates, respectively. Black gouges display low friction coefficients (0.3) and velocity-weakening behaviours, as opposed to high friction coefficients (0.65) and velocity-strengthening behaviours shown by the foliated cataclasites. Our results show that narrow black gouges developed within foliated cataclasites represent a potential diagnostic marker for episodic seismic activity in shallow creeping faults. These findings can help understanding the time-space partitioning between aseismic and seismic slip of faults at shallow crustal levels, impacting on seismic hazard evaluation of subduction zones and forearc regions affected by destructive earthquakes and tsunamis.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Seismic signature of active intrusions in mountain chains.

PubMed

Di Luccio, Francesca; Chiodini, Giovanni; Caliro, Stefano; Cardellini, Carlo; Convertito, Vincenzo; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Tolomei, Cristiano; Ventura, Guido

2018-01-01

Intrusions are a ubiquitous component of mountain chains and testify to the emplacement of magma at depth. Understanding the emplacement and growth mechanisms of intrusions, such as diapiric or dike-like ascent, is critical to constrain the evolution and structure of the crust. Petrological and geological data allow us to reconstruct magma pathways and long-term magma differentiation and assembly processes. However, our ability to detect and reconstruct the short-term dynamics related to active intrusive episodes in mountain chains is embryonic, lacking recognized geophysical signals. We analyze an anomalously deep seismic sequence (maximum magnitude 5) characterized by low-frequency bursts of earthquakes that occurred in 2013 in the Apennine chain in Italy. We provide seismic evidences of fluid involvement in the earthquake nucleation process and identify a thermal anomaly in aquifers where CO 2 of magmatic origin dissolves. We show that the intrusion of dike-like bodies in mountain chains may trigger earthquakes with magnitudes that may be relevant to seismic hazard assessment. These findings provide a new perspective on the emplacement mechanisms of intrusive bodies and the interpretation of the seismicity in mountain chains.

Seismic signature of active intrusions in mountain chains

PubMed Central

Di Luccio, Francesca; Chiodini, Giovanni; Caliro, Stefano; Cardellini, Carlo; Convertito, Vincenzo; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Tolomei, Cristiano; Ventura, Guido

2018-01-01

Intrusions are a ubiquitous component of mountain chains and testify to the emplacement of magma at depth. Understanding the emplacement and growth mechanisms of intrusions, such as diapiric or dike-like ascent, is critical to constrain the evolution and structure of the crust. Petrological and geological data allow us to reconstruct magma pathways and long-term magma differentiation and assembly processes. However, our ability to detect and reconstruct the short-term dynamics related to active intrusive episodes in mountain chains is embryonic, lacking recognized geophysical signals. We analyze an anomalously deep seismic sequence (maximum magnitude 5) characterized by low-frequency bursts of earthquakes that occurred in 2013 in the Apennine chain in Italy. We provide seismic evidences of fluid involvement in the earthquake nucleation process and identify a thermal anomaly in aquifers where CO2 of magmatic origin dissolves. We show that the intrusion of dike-like bodies in mountain chains may trigger earthquakes with magnitudes that may be relevant to seismic hazard assessment. These findings provide a new perspective on the emplacement mechanisms of intrusive bodies and the interpretation of the seismicity in mountain chains. PMID:29326978

Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Steven Wolf

This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

An analysis of seismic hazard in the Upper Rhine Graben enlightened by the example of the New Madrid seismic zone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doubre, Cécile; Masson, Frédéric; Mazzotti, Stéphane; Meghraoui, Mustapha

2014-05-01

Seismic hazard in the "stable" continental regions and low-level deformation zones is one of the most difficult issues to address in Earth sciences. In these zones, instrumental and historical seismicity are not well known (sparse seismic networks, seismic cycle too long to be covered by the human history, episodic seismic activity) and many active structures remain poorly characterized or unknown. This is the case of the Upper Rhine Graben, the central segment of the European Cenozoic rift system (ECRIS) of Oligocene age, which extends from the North Sea through Germany and France to the Mediterranean coast over a distance of some 1100 km. Even if this region has already experienced some destructive earthquakes, its present-day seismicity is moderate and the deformation observed by geodesy is very small (below the current measurement accuracy). The strain rate does not exceed 10-10 and paleoseismic studies indicate an average return period of 2.5 to 3 103 ka for large earthquakes. The largest earthquake known for this zone is the 1356 Basel earthquake, with a magnitude generally estimated about 6.5 (Meghraoui et al., 2001) but recently re-evaluated between 6.7 and 7.1 (Fäh et al et al., 2009). A comparison of the Upper Rhine Graben with equivalent regions around the world could help improve our evaluation of seismic hazard of this region. This is the case of the New Madrid seismic zone, one of the best studied intraplate system in central USA, which experienced an M 7.0 - 7.5 earthquake in 1811-1812 and shares several characteristics with the Upper Rhine Graben, i.e. the general framework of inherited geological structures (reactivation of a failed rift / graben), seismicity patterns (spatial variability of small and large earthquakes), the null or low rate of deformation, and the location in a "stable" continental interior. Looking at the Upper Rhine Graben as an analogue of the New Madrid seismic zone, we can re-evaluate its seismic hazard and consider the possibility of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater.

A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

2013-08-01

A precondition for all disaster management steps, building damage prediction, and construction code developments is a hazard assessment that shows the exceedance probabilities of different ground motion levels at a site considering different near- and far-field earthquake sources. The seismic sources are usually categorized as time-independent area sources and time-dependent fault sources. While the earlier incorporates the small and medium events, the later takes into account only the large characteristic earthquakes. In this article, a probabilistic approach is proposed to aggregate the effects of time-dependent and time-independent sources on seismic hazard. The methodology is then applied to generate three probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for 10%, 5%, and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results indicate an increase in peak ground acceleration (PGA) values toward the southeastern part of the study area and the PGA variations are mostly controlled by the shear wave velocities across the city. In addition, the implementation of the methodology takes advantage of GIS capabilities especially raster-based analyses and representations. During the estimation of the PGA exceedance rates, the emphasis has been placed on incorporating the effects of different attenuation relationships and seismic source models by using a logic tree.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for northern Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Kosuwan, S.; Nguyen, M. L.; Shi, X.; Sieh, K.

2016-12-01

We assess seismic hazard for northern Southeast Asia through constructing an earthquake and fault database, conducting a series of ground-shaking scenarios and proposing regional seismic hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters from global and local seismic catalogues, including the ISC, ISC-GEM, the global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, Seismological Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. To harmonize the earthquake parameters from various catalogue sources, we remove duplicate events and unify magnitudes into the same scale. Our active fault database include active fault data from previous studies, e.g. the active fault parameters determined by Wang et al. (2014), Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. Based on the parameters from analysis of the databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and time elapsed of last events), we determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the felt intensities of historical earthquakes to the modelled ground motions using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). By incorporating the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions, we utilized site effect and assessed probabilistic seismic hazard. The highest seismic hazard is in the region close to the Sagaing Fault, which cuts through some major cities in central Myanmar. The northern segment of Sunda megathrust, which could potentially cause M8-class earthquake, brings significant hazard along the Western Coast of Myanmar and eastern Bangladesh. Besides, we conclude a notable hazard level in northern Vietnam and the boundary between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, due to a series of strike-slip faults, which could potentially cause moderate-large earthquakes. Note that although much of the region has a low probability of damaging shaking, low-probability events have resulted in much destruction recently in SE Asia (e.g. 2008 Wenchuan, 2015 Sabah earthquakes).

Space Geodesy and the New Madrid Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smalley, Robert; Ellis, Michael A.

2008-07-01

One of the most contentious issues related to earthquake hazards in the United States centers on the midcontinent and the origin, magnitudes, and likely recurrence intervals of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes that occurred there. The stakeholder groups in the debate (local and state governments, reinsurance companies, American businesses, and the scientific community) are similar to the stakeholder groups in regions more famous for large earthquakes. However, debate about New Madrid seismic hazard has been fiercer because of the lack of two fundamental components of seismic hazard estimation: an explanatory model for large, midplate earthquakes; and sufficient or sufficiently precise data about the causes, effects, and histories of such earthquakes.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

Update of the tectonic model for the Pannonian basin: a contribution to the seismic hazard reassessment of the Paks NPP (Hungary)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horváth, Ferenc; Tóth, Tamás; Wórum, Géza; Koroknai, Balázs; Kádi, Zoltán; Kovács, Gábor; Balázs, Attila; Visnovitz, Ferenc

2015-04-01

The planned construction of two new units at the site of the Paks NPP requires a comprehensive site investigation including complete reassessment of the seismic hazard according to the Hungarian as well as international standards. Following the regulations of the Specific Safety Guide no. 9 (IAEA 2010), the approved Hungarian Geological Investigation Program (HGIP) includes integrated geological-geophysical studies at different scales. The regional study aims at to elaborate a new synthesis of all published data for the whole Pannonian basin. This task is nearly completed and the main outcomes have already been published (Horváth et al. 2015). The near regional study is in progress and addresses the construction of a new tectonic model for the circular area with 50 km radius around the NPP using a wealth of unpublished oil company seismic and borehole data. The site vicinity study has also been started with a core activity of 300 km² 3D seismic data acquisition, processing and interpretation assisted by a series of additional geophysical surveys, new drillings and geological mapping. This lecture will present a few important results of the near regional study, which sheds new light on the intricate tectonic evolution of the Mid-Hungarian Fault Zone (MHFZ), which is a strongly deformed belt between the Alcapa and Tisza-Dacia megatectonic units. The nuclear power plant is located at the margin of the Tisza unit near to the southern edge of the MHFZ. Reassessment of seismic hazard at the site of the NPP requires better understanding of the Miocene to Recent tectonic evolution of this region in the central part of the Pannonian basin. Early to Middle Miocene was a period of rifting with formation of 1 to 3 km deep half-grabens filled with terrestrial to marine deposits and large amount of rift-related volcanic material. Graben fill became strongly deformed as a consequence of juxtaposition of the two megatectonic units leading to strong compression and development of large scale transfer faults due to differential movements. The beginning of Late Miocene saw an event of basin inversion resulting in uplift and remarkable erosion of the synrift strata. Pliocene through Quaternary has been a period of gradual change in the regional stress field and formation of a series of basin-scale sinistral strike-slip faults usually by reactivation of half-graben bounding normal faults. A most important subject of the HGIP for seismic hazard assessment of the Paks NPP is to determine the timing and amount of displacement of this fault system, as well as its potential capability in the vicinity of the site. References: IAEA (2010): Seismic hazard in site evaluation for nuclear installations. International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, SSG-9, Vienna, p. 60. Horváth, F. et al (2015): Evolution of the Pannonian basin and its geothermal resources. Geothermics, 53, 328-352.

Application of seismic interferometric migration for shallow seismic high precision data processing: A case study in the Shenhu area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jia; Liu, Huaishan; Xing, Lei; Du, Dong

2018-02-01

The stability of submarine geological structures has a crucial influence on the construction of offshore engineering projects and the exploitation of seabed resources. Marine geologists should possess a detailed understanding of common submarine geological hazards. Current marine seismic exploration methods are based on the most effective detection technologies. Therefore, current research focuses on improving the resolution and precision of shallow stratum structure detection methods. In this article, the feasibility of shallow seismic structure imaging is assessed by building a complex model, and differences between the seismic interferometry imaging method and the traditional imaging method are discussed. The imaging effect of the model is better for shallow layers than for deep layers because coherent noise produced by this method can result in an unsatisfactory imaging effect for deep layers. The seismic interference method has certain advantages for geological structural imaging of shallow submarine strata, which indicates continuous horizontal events, a high resolution, a clear fault, and an obvious structure boundary. The effects of the actual data applied to the Shenhu area can fully illustrate the advantages of the method. Thus, this method has the potential to provide new insights for shallow submarine strata imaging in the area.

Seismic and Aseismic Slip on the Cascadia Megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, S. G. R. M.; Gualandi, A.; Avouac, J. P.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of the dynamics governing aseismic and seismic slip hinges on our ability to image the time evolution of fault slip during and in between earthquakes and transients. Such kinematic descriptions are also pivotal to assess seismic hazard as, on the long term, elastic strain accumulating around a fault should be balanced by elastic strain released by seismic slip and aseismic transients. In this presentation, we will discuss how such kinematic descriptions can be obtained from the analysis and modelling of geodetic time series. We will use inversion methods based on Independent Component Analysis (ICA) decomposition of the time series to extract and model the aseismic slip (afterslip and slow slip events). We will show that this approach is very effective to identify, and filter out, non-tectonic sources of geodetic strain such as the strain due to surface loads, which can be estimated using gravimetric measurements from GRACE, and thermal strain. We will discuss in particular the application to the Cascadia subduction zone.

Assessment of seismic hazard in the North Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulomov, V. I.; Danilova, T. I.; Medvedeva, N. S.; Polyakova, T. P.; Shumilina, L. S.

2007-07-01

The seismicity of the North Caucasus is the highest in the European part of Russia. The detection of potential seismic sources here and long-term prediction of earthquakes are extremely important for the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk in this densely populated and industrially developed region of the country. The seismogenic structures of the Iran-Caucasus-Anatolia and Central Asia regions, adjacent to European Russia, are the subjects of this study. These structures are responsible for the specific features of regional seismicity and for the geodynamic interaction with adjacent areas of the Scythian and Turan platforms. The most probable potential sources of earthquakes with magnitudes M = 7.0 ± 0.2 and 7.5 ± 0.2 in the North Caucasus are located. The possible macroseismic effect of one of them is assessed.

Reducing Seismic Hazard and Building Capacity Through International Cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergino, E. S.; Arakelyan, A.; Babayan, H.; Durgaryan, R.; Elashvili, M.; Godoladze, T.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Kalogeras, I.; Karakhanyan, A.; Martin, R. J.; Yetirmishli, G.

2012-12-01

During the last 50 years, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea regions have experienced several devastating earthquakes. While each country in the region has worked with its neighbors on small, ad-hoc projects to improve preparedness, deeply ingrained political and ethnic rivalries, and severely stressed economies have severely hindered sustained regional cooperation. Future damaging earthquakes are inevitable and without proper planning the negative impact on public safety, security, economics and stability in these regions will be devastating. We have, through twelve years of international scientific cooperation, focused on the development of an expanded skill base and infrastructure, through the installation of new, modern, digital seismic monitoring networks, building of historic databases, sharing seismic, geologic and geophysical data, conducting joint scientific investigations utilizing the new digital data and applying modern techniques, as well as the development of regional hazard models that the scientists of the region share with their governments and use to advise them on the best ways to mitigate the impact of a damaging earthquake. We have established specialized regional scientific task-force teams who can carry out seismological, geological and engineering studies in the epicentral zone, including the collection of new scientific data, for better understanding of seismic and geodynamic processes as well to provide emergency support in crisis and post-crisis situations in the Southern Caucasus countries. "Secrecy" in crisis and post-crisis situations in the former Soviet Union countries, as well as political instabilities, led to an absence of seismic risk reduction and prevention measures as well as little to no training of scientific-technical personnel who could take action in emergency situations. There were few opportunities for the development of a next generation of scientific experts, thus we have placed emphasis on the inclusion and development of young scientists who are able to advise their countries' decision makers in the future. By building a common and shared set of databases, making available new modern, scientific tools, and providing joint training field exercises we are working to enable the countries to make independent decisions about their infrastructures and to pool their resources in the event of another earthquake. Out of the earthquakes' devastation has come a positive outcome: a scientific partnership to address the seismic hazards along one of the world's most tectonically active regions. This is contributing to a rapprochement of the scientists, decision makers, and politicians in this region. This work was supported through the following international projects: ISTC A-1418 Project "Open Network of Scientific Centers for Mitigation Risk of Natural Hazards in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia", ISTC CSP-053 Project "Development of Communication System for Seismic Hazard Situations in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia", and NATO SfP- 983284 Project "Caucasus Seismic Emergency Response", with participants from the Southern Caucasus countries, the US, Greece, Turkey, and France. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies are necessary. Temporary seismic networks have been installed in several Central Asian cities (Bishkek and Karakol, Kyrgyzstan; Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Tashkent, Uzbekistan) within the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA), a regional program of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The empirically estimated site effects have already helped to improve real-time risk scenarios for Bishkek and will be applied to other major cities. - A crucial requirement for disaster risk reduction involves the analysis of the vulnerability of existing building inventories. Whereas traditional approaches are very time- and cost-consuming, and even impossible given the high rate of urbanization in Central Asian capitals, our integrated approach is based on satellite remote sensing and ground-based omni-directional imaging, providing building inventories and thus structural vulnerability over large areas (EMCA, GEM-IDCT). All mentioned activities are carried out within the framework of cooperation between GFZ and regional national institutes, in particular the Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences. Altogether, this comprehensive and long-term risk analyses and research program will lead to a better understanding of the coupling of endogene and exogene processes and the identification of their impact on society.

Incorporating natural hazard assessments into municipal master-plans; case-studies from Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Oded

2010-05-01

The active Dead Sea Rift (DSR) runs along the length of Israel, making the entire state susceptible to earthquake-related hazards. Current building codes generally acknowledge seismic hazards and direct engineers towards earthquake-resistant structures. However, hazard mapping on a scale fit for municipal/governmental planning is subject to local initiative and is currently not mandatory as seems necessary. In the following, a few cases of seismic-hazard evaluation made by the Geological Survey of Israel are presented, emphasizing the reasons for their initiation and the way results were incorporated (or not). The first case is a seismic hazard qualitative micro-zonation invited by the municipality of Jerusalem as part of a new master plan. This work resulted in maps (1:50,000; GIS format) identifying areas prone to (1) amplification of seismic shaking due to site characteristics (outcrops of soft rocks or steep topography) and (2) sites with earthquake induced landslide (EILS) hazard. Results were validated using reports from the 1927, M=6.2 earthquake that originated along the DSR about 30km east of Jerusalem. Although the hazard maps were accepted by municipal authorities, practical use by geotechnical engineers working within the frame of the new master-plan was not significant. The main reason for that is apparently a difference of opinion between the city-engineers responsible for implementing the new master-plan and the geologists responsible of the hazard evaluation. The second case involves evaluation of EILS hazard for two towns located further north along the DSR, Zefat and Tiberias. Both were heavily damaged more than once by strong earthquakes in past centuries. Work was carried out as part of a governmental seismic-hazard reduction program. The results include maps (1:10,000 scales) of sites with high EILS hazard identified within city limits. Maps (in GIS format) were sent to city engineers with reports explaining the methods and results. As far as we know, widespread implementation of the maps within municipal master plans never came about, and there was no open discussion between city engineers and the Geological Survey. The main reasons apparently are (1) a lack, until recently, of mandatory building codes requiring incorporation of EILS hazard; (2) budget priorities; (3) failure to involve municipality personnel in planning and executing the EILS hazard evaluation. These cases demonstrate that for seismic hazard data to be incorporated and implemented within municipal master-plans there needs to be (1) active involvement of municipal officials and engineers from the early planning stages of the evaluation campaign, and (2) a-priori dedication of funds towards implementation of evaluation results.

Submarine Landslide Hazards Offshore Southern Alaska: Seismic Strengthening Versus Rapid Sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawyer, D.; Reece, R.; Gulick, S. P. S.; Lenz, B. L.

2017-12-01

The southern Alaskan offshore margin is prone to submarine landslides and tsunami hazards due to seismically active plate boundaries and extreme sedimentation rates from glacially enhanced mountain erosion. We examine the submarine landslide potential with new shear strength measurements acquired by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 341 on the continental slope and Surveyor Fan. These data reveal lower than expected sediment strength. Contrary to other active margins where seismic strengthening enhances slope stability, the high-sedimentation margin offshore southern Alaska behaves like a passive margin from a shear strength perspective. We interpret that seismic strengthening occurs but is offset by high sedimentation rates and overpressure within the slope and Surveyor Fan. This conclusion is supported because shear strength follows an expected active margin profile outside of the fan, where background sedimentation rates occur. More broadly, seismically active margins with wet-based glaciers are susceptible to submarine landslide hazards because of the combination of high sedimentation rates and earthquake shaking

The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

2016-07-01

Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motions in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Perkins, D.; Frankel, A.

1999-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation. We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al., 1996). For points on a 0.2?? grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes (M??, M??) and distances (D??, D??) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M??, D??, M??, and D?? for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS. The contribution to hazard of the New Madrid and Charleston sources dominates over much of the CEUS; for 0.2-sec response, over 40% of the area; for 1.0-sec response, over 80% of the area. For 0.2-sec response, D?? ranges from 20 to 200 km, for 1.0 sec, 30 to 600 km. For sites influenced by New Madrid or Charleston, D is less than the distance to these sources, and M?? is less than the characteristic magnitude of these sources, because averaging takes into account the effect of smaller magnitude and closer sources. On the other hand, D?? is directly the distance to New Madrid or Charleston and M?? for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response corresponds to the dominating source over much of the CEUS. For some cities in the North Atlantic states, short-period seismic hazard is apt to be controlled by local seismicity, whereas intermediate period (1.0 sec) hazard is commonly controlled by regional seismicity, such as that of the Charlevoix seismic zone.

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities around the SCS region, the tsunami hazard and risk should be further highlighted in the future.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motions and fault displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stepp, J.C.; Wong, I.; Whitney, J.; Quittmeyer, R.; Abrahamson, N.; Toro, G.; Young, S.R.; Coppersmith, K.; Savy, J.; Sullivan, T.

2001-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

2015-04-01

The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases towards the northeast across the Reverse Faults Province and up to Yucatan Platform, where the lowest values are reached. We also produced uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the three main cities of Chiapas. Tapachula city presents the highest spectral accelerations, while Tuxtla Gutierrez and San Cristobal de las Casas cities show similar values. We conclude that seismic hazard in Chiapas is chiefly controlled by the subduction of the Cocos beneath Northamerica and Caribe tectonic plates, that makes the coastal areas the most hazardous. Additionally, the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zones are also important, increasing the hazard particularly in southeastern Chiapas.

Leveraging EarthScope USArray with the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busby, R.; Sumy, D. F.; Woodward, R.; Frassetto, A.; Brudzinski, M.

2015-12-01

Recent earthquakes, such as the 2011 M5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake, raised awareness of the comparative lack of knowledge about seismicity, site response to ground shaking, and the basic geologic underpinnings in this densely populated region. With this in mind, the National Science Foundation, United States Geological Survey, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy supported the creation of the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Network (CEUSN). These agencies, along with the IRIS Consortium who operates the network, recognized the unique opportunity to retain EarthScope Transportable Array (TA) seismic stations in this region beyond the standard deployment duration of two years per site. The CEUSN project supports 159 broadband TA stations, more than 30 with strong motion sensors added, that are scheduled to operate through 2017. Stations were prioritized in regions of elevated seismic hazard that have not been traditionally heavily monitored, such as the Charlevoix and Central Virginia Seismic Zones, and in regions proximal to nuclear power plants and other critical facilities. The stations (network code N4) transmit data in real time, with broadband and strong motion sensors sampling at 100 samples per second. More broadly the CEUSN concept also recognizes the existing backbone coverage of permanently operating seismometers in the CEUS, and forms a network of over 300 broadband stations. This multi-agency collaboration is motivated by the opportunity to use one facility to address multiple missions and needs in a way that is rarely possible, and to produce data that enables both researchers and federal agencies to better understand seismic hazard potential and associated seismic risks. In June 2015, the CEUSN Working Group (www.usarray.org/ceusn_working_group) was formed to review and provide advice to IRIS Management on the performance of the CEUSN as it relates to the target scientific goals and objectives. Map shows the 159 CEUSN stations (yellow) that will be operated and maintained by the IRIS Consortium through 2017. The CEUSN stations were selected for proximity to nuclear power plants (black squares) and other critical infrastructure as well as to more evenly distribute seismic stations across the central and eastern United States.

Imaging the Seismic Cycle in the Central Andean Subduction Zone from Geodetic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega-Culaciati, F.; Becerra-Carreño, V. C.; Socquet, A.; Jara, J.; Carrizo, D.; Norabuena, E. O.; Simons, M.; Vigny, C.; Bataille, K. D.; Moreno, M.; Baez, J. C.; Comte, D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Delorme, A.; Genrich, J. F.; Klein, E.; Ortega, I.; Valderas, M. C.

2015-12-01

We aim to quantify spatial and temporal evolution of fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrusts, with the eventual goal of improving our understanding of the mechanical behavior of the subduction system and its implications for earthquake and tsunami hazards. In this work, we analyze the portion of the Nazca-SouthAmerican plates subduction zone affected by the 1868 southern Peru and 1877 northern Chile mega-earthquakes. The 1868 and 1878 events defined a seismic gap that did not experience a large earthquake for over 124 years. Only recently, the 1995 Mw 8.1 Antofagasta, 2001 Mw 8.4 Arequipa, 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla, and 2014 Mw 8.2 Pisagua earthquakes released only a small fraction of the potential slip budget, thereby raising concerns about continued seismic and tsunami hazard. We use over a decade of observations from continuous and campaign GPS networks to analyze inter-seismic strain accumulation, as well as co-seimic deformation associated to the more recent earthquakes in the in the Central Andean region. We obtain inferences of slip (and back-slip) behavior using a consistent and robust inversion framework that accounts for the spatial variability of the constraint provided by the observations on slip across the subduction megathrust. We present an updated inter-seismic coupling model and estimates of pre-, co- and post- seismic slip behavior associated with the most recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Pisagua earthquake. We analyze our results, along with published information on the recent and historical large earthquakes, to characterize the regions of the megathrust that tend to behave aseismically, and those that are capable to accumulate a slip budget (ultimately leading to the generation of large earthquakes), to what extent such regions may overlap, and discuss the potential for large earthquakes in the region.

Appalachian Play Fairway Analysis Seismic Hazards Supporting Data

DOE Data Explorer

Frank Horowitz

2016-07-20

These are the data used in estimating the seismic hazards (both natural and induced) for candidate direct use geothermal locations in the Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis by Jordan et al. (2015). xMin,yMin -83.1407,36.7461 : xMax,yMax -71.5175,45.1729

Seismic Awareness : Transportation Facilities : A Primer for Transportation Managers on Earthquake Hazards and Measures for Reducing Vulnerability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

The purpose of this report is to alert managers and operators of transportation enterprises, in both the public and private sector, to the dangers of earthquakes to buildings and possible precautions to be taken. The nature of seismic hazards in the ...

GEOS seismograms for aftershocks of the earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, during the time period 30 December 1988 14:00 through 2 January 1989 (UTC): Chapter D in Results and data from seismologic and geologic studies following earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR (Open-File Report 89-163)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, R.D.; Glassmoyer, Gary; Cranswick, Edward

1989-01-01

The earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, serve as another grim reminder of the serious hazard that earthquakes pose throughout the world. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families of the earthquake victims and intend that our cooperative scientific endeavours will help reduce losses in future earthquakes. Only through a better understanding of earthquake hazards can earthquake losses be reduced for all peoples in seismically active regions of the world.The tragic consequences of these earthquakes remind scientists and public officials alike of their urgent responsibilities to understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes. On behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey, I would like to express appreciation to our Soviet colleagues for their kind invitation to participate in joint scientific and engineering studies. Without their cooperation and generous assistance, the conduct of these studies would not have been possible.This report provides seismologic and geologic data collected during the time period December 21, 1988, through February 2, 1989. These data are presented in their entirety to expedite analysis of the data set for inferences regarding hazard mitigation actions, applicable not only in Armenia but other regions of the world exposed to high seismic risk

Tectonic evolution of the Mexico flat slab and patterns of intraslab seismicity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moresi, L. N.; Sandiford, D.

2017-12-01

The Cocos plate slab is horizontal for about 250 km beneath the Guerrero region of southern Mexico. Analogous morphologies can spontaneously develop in subduction models, through the presence of a low-viscosity mantle wedge. The Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake appears to have ruptured the inboard corner of the Mexican flat slab; likely in close proximity to the mantle wedge corner. In addition to the historical seismic record, the Puebla earthquake provides a valuable constraint through which to assess geodynamic models for flat slab evolution. Slab deformation predicted by the "weak wedge" model is consistent with past seismicity in the both the upper plate and slab. Below the flat section, the slab is anomalously warm relative to its depth; the lack of seismicity in the deeper part of the slab fits the global pattern of temperature-controlled slab seismicity. This has implications for understanding the deeper structure of the slab, including the seismic hazard from source regions downdip of the Puebla rupture (epicenters closer to Mexico City). While historical seismicity provides a deformation pattern consistent with the weak wedge model , the Puebla earthquake is somewhat anomalous. The earthquake source mechanism is consistent with stress orientations in our models, however it maps to a region of relatively low deviatoric stress.

Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

2014-05-01

Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including Athens, using detailed data derived from published papers, neotectonic maps and fieldwork observations. Moreover, we incorporated background seismicity models from the historic record and also the subduction zone earthquakes distribution, for the integration of strong deep earthquakes that could also affect Attica region. We created 4 high spatial resolution seismic hazard maps for the region of Attica, one for each of the intensities VII - X (MM). These maps offer a locality specific shaking recurrence record, which represents the long-term shaking record in a more complete way, since they incorporate several seismic cycles of the active faults that could affect Attica. Each one of these high resolution seismic hazard maps displays both the spatial distribution and the recurrence, over a specific time period, of the relevant intensity. Time - independent probabilities were extracted based on these average recurrence intervals, using the stationary Poisson model P = 1 -e-Λt. The 'Λ' value was provided by the intensities recurrence, as displayed in the seismic hazard maps. However, the insurance contracts usually lack of detailed spatial information and they refer to Postal Codes level, akin to CRESTA zones. To this end, a time-independent probability of shaking at intensities VII - X was calculated for every Postal Code, for a given time period, using the Poisson model. The reserves calculation on buildings portfolio combines the probability of events of specific intensities within the Postal Codes, with the buildings characteristics, such as the building construction type and the insured value. We propose a standard approach for the reserves calculation K(t) for a specific time period: K (t) = x2 ·[x1 ·y1 ·P1(t) + x1 ·y2 ·P2(t) + x1 ·y3 ·P3(t) + x1 ·y4 ·P4(t)] x1 which is a function of the probabilities of occurrence for the seismic intensities VII - X (P1(t) -P4(t)) for the same period, the value of the building x1, the insured value x2 and the characteristics of the building, such as the construction type, age, height and use of property (y1 - y4). Furthermore a stochastic approach is also adopted in order to obtain the relevant reserve value K(t) for the specific time period. This calculation considers a set of simulations from the Poisson random variable and then taking the respective expectations.

Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku, Japan, and their relationship to episodic tremor and slip.

PubMed

Shelly, David R; Beroza, Gregory C; Ide, Satoshi; Nakamula, Sho

2006-07-13

Non-volcanic seismic tremor was discovered in the Nankai trough subduction zone in southwest Japan and subsequently identified in the Cascadia subduction zone. In both locations, tremor is observed to coincide temporally with large, slow slip events on the plate interface downdip of the seismogenic zone. The relationship between tremor and aseismic slip remains uncertain, however, largely owing to difficulty in constraining the source depth of tremor. In southwest Japan, a high quality borehole seismic network allows identification of coherent S-wave (and sometimes P-wave) arrivals within the tremor, whose sources are classified as low-frequency earthquakes. As low-frequency earthquakes comprise at least a portion of tremor, understanding their mechanism is critical to understanding tremor as a whole. Here, we provide strong evidence that these earthquakes occur on the plate interface, coincident with the inferred zone of slow slip. The locations and characteristics of these events suggest that they are generated by shear slip during otherwise aseismic transients, rather than by fluid flow. High pore-fluid pressure in the immediate vicinity, as implied by our estimates of seismic P- and S-wave speeds, may act to promote this transient mode of failure. Low-frequency earthquakes could potentially contribute to seismic hazard forecasting by providing a new means to monitor slow slip at depth.

Analysis of the seismic signals generated by controlled single-block rockfalls on soft clay shales sediments: the Rioux Bourdoux slope experiment (French Alps).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, Clément; Provost, Floriane; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Bourrier, Franck; Berger, Frédéric; Bornemann, Pierrick; Borgniet, Laurent; Tardif, Pascal; Mermin, Eric

2016-04-01

Understanding the dynamics of rockfalls is critical to mitigate the associated hazards but is made very difficult by the nature of these natural disasters that makes them hard to observe directly. Recent advances in seismology allow to determine the dynamics of the largest landslides on Earth from the very low-frequency seismic waves they generate. However, the vast majority of rockfalls that occur worldwide are too small to generate such low-frequency seismic waves and thus these methods cannot be used to reconstruct their dynamics. However, if seismic sensors are close enough, these events will generate high-frequency seismic signals. Unfortunately we cannot yet use these high-frequency seismic records to infer parameters synthetizing the rockfall dynamics as the source of these waves is not well understood. One of the first steps towards understanding the physical processes involved in the generation of high-frequency seismic waves by rockfalls is to study the link between the dynamics of a single block propagating along a well-known path and the features of the seismic signal generated. We conducted controlled releases of single blocks of limestones in a gully of clay-shales (e.g. black marls) in the Rioux Bourdoux torrent (French Alps). 28 blocks, with masses ranging from 76 kg to 472 kg, were released. A monitoring network combining high-velocity cameras, a broadband seismometer and an array of 4 high-frequency seismometers was deployed near the release area and along the travel path. The high-velocity cameras allow to reconstruct the 3D trajectories of the blocks, to estimate their velocities and the position of the different impacts with the slope surface. These data are compared to the seismic signals recorded. As the distance between the block and the seismic sensors at the time of each impact is known, we can determine the associated seismic signal amplitude corrected from propagation and attenuation effects. We can further compare the velocity, the energy and the momentum of the block at each impact to the true amplitude and the energy of the corresponding part of the seismic signal. Finding potential correlations and scaling laws between the dynamics of the source and the high-frequency seismic signal features constitutes an important breakthrough to understand more complex slope movements that involve multiple blocks or granular flows. This approach may lead to future developments of methods able to determine the dynamics of a large variety of slope movements directly from the seismic signals they generate.

Reactivity of seismicity rate to static Coulomb stress changes of two consecutive large earthquakes in the central Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dianala, J. D. B.; Aurelio, M.; Rimando, J. M.; Taguibao, K.

2015-12-01

In a region with little understanding in terms of active faults and seismicity, two large-magnitude reverse-fault related earthquakes occurred within 100km of each other in separate islands of the Central Philippines—the Mw=6.7 February 2012 Negros earthquake and the Mw=7.2 October 2013 Bohol earthquake. Based on source faults that were defined using onshore, offshore seismic reflection, and seismicity data, stress transfer models for both earthquakes were calculated using the software Coulomb. Coulomb stress triggering between the two main shocks is unlikely as the stress change caused by Negros earthquake on the Bohol fault was -0.03 bars. Correlating the stress changes on optimally-oriented reverse faults with seismicity rate changes shows that areas that decreased both in static stress and seismicity rate after the first earthquake were then areas with increased static stress and increased seismicity rate caused by the second earthquake. These areas with now increased stress, especially those with seismicity showing reactivity to static stress changes caused by the two earthquakes, indicate the presence of active structures in the island of Cebu. Comparing the history of instrumentally recorded seismicity and the recent large earthquakes of Negros and Bohol, these structures in Cebu have the potential to generate large earthquakes. Given that the Philippines' second largest metropolitan area (Metro Cebu) is in close proximity, detailed analysis of the earthquake potential and seismic hazards in these areas should be undertaken.

Studies related to the Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake of 1886; tectonics and seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gottfried, David; Annell, C.S.; Byerly, G.R.; Lanphere, Marvin A.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Gohn, Gregory S.; Houser, Brenda B.; Schneider, Ray R.; Ackermann, Hans D.; Yantis, B.R.; Costain, John K.; Schilt, F. Steve; Brown, Larry; Oliver, Jack E.; Kaufman, Sidney; Hamilton, Robert Morrison; Behrendt, John C.; Henry, V. James; Bayer, Kenneth C.; Daniels, David L.; Zietz, Isidore; Popenoe, Peter; Chowns, T.M.; Williams, C.T.; Dooley, Robert E.; Wampler, J.; Dillon, William P.; Klitgord, Kim D.; Paull, Charles K.; McGinnis, Lyle D.; Dewey, James W.; Tarr, Arthur C.; Rhea, Susan; Wentworth, Carl M.; Mergner-Keefer, Marcia; Bollinger, G.A.; Gohn, Gregory S.

1983-01-01

Since 1973, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with support from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has conducted extensive investigations of the tectonic and seismic history of the Charleston, S.C., earthquake zone and surrounding areas. The goal of these investigations has been to discover the cause of the large intraplate Charleston earthquake of 1886, which dominates the record of seismicity in the Southeastern United States, through an understanding of the historic and modern seismicity at Charleston and of the tectonic setting of the seismicity. This goal is being pursued to evaluate the potential for additional large earthquakes in the Charleston area and surrounding regions and to determine whether the Charleston area differs tectonically in any significant fashion from other parts of the Southeastern United States. An understanding of the specific cause for the 1886 event and of the regional distribution of any structures that are generically related to or geometrically and mechanically similar to the source structure is essential for evaluation of seismic hazards throughout the Southeast.The results given herein represent significant progress toward understanding the tectonic setting of the Charleston-area seismicity. Several chapters in the volume address the distribution and origin of pre-Cretaceous rocks and structures beneath Coastal Plain sediments in the Charleston area and regionally beneath the southern Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Continental Shelf. The modern seismicity at Charleston is occurring at depths equal to or greater than the known extent of these older structures, and rejuvenation of an older fault in the modern stress field is a possible cause of the seismicity. Accordingly, several chapters discuss the possible relationships of the various pre-Cretaceous structures to faults identified near Charleston that have a known Cretaceous and Cenozoic movement history and to the historic and instrumentally recorded seismicity. However, at the present time, none of the young structures can be related unequivocally to the seismicity because earthquake fault-plane solutions and hypocenter distributions do not agree with the locations and orientations of these structures. Therefore, a major emphasis of continuing USGS investigations near Charleston will be to identify additional faults, if any exist, to delineate fault movement histories, and to further refine earthquake locations, focal mechanisms, and related seismological interpretations.

Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisses, A.; Kell, A. M.; Kent, G.; Driscoll, N. W.; Karlin, R. E.; Baskin, R. L.; Louie, J. N.; Smith, K. D.; Pullammanappallil, S.

2011-12-01

Preliminary slip rates measured across the East Pyramid Lake fault, or the Lake Range fault, help provide new estimates of extension across the Pyramid Lake basin. Multiple stratigraphic horizons spanning 48 ka were tracked throughout the lake, with layer offsets measured across all significant faults in the basin. A chronstratigraphic framework acquired from four sediment cores allows slip rates of the Lake Range and other faults to be calculated accurately. This region of the northern Walker Lake, strategically placed between the right-lateral strike-slip faults of Honey and Eagle Lakes to the north, and the normal fault bounded basins to the southwest (e.g., Tahoe, Carson), is critical in understanding the underlying structural complexity that is not only necessary for geothermal exploration, but also earthquake hazard assessment due to the proximity of the Reno-Sparks metropolitan area. In addition, our seismic CHIRP imaging with submeter resolution allows the construction of the first fault map of Pyramid Lake. The Lake Range fault can be obviously traced west of Anahoe Island extending north along the east end of the lake in numerous CHIRP lines. Initial drafts of the fault map reveal active transtension through a series of numerous, small, northwest striking, oblique-slip faults in the north end of the lake. A previously field mapped northwest striking fault near Sutcliff can be extended into the west end of Pyramid Lake. This fault map, along with the calculated slip rate of the Lake Range, and potentially multiple other faults, gives a clearer picture into understanding the geothermal potential, tectonic regime and earthquake hazards in the Pyramid Lake basin and the northern Walker Lane. These new results have also been merged with seismicity maps, along with focal mechanisms for the larger events to begin to extend our fault map in depth.

Effective Collaboration Between Scientists and Local Governments to Improve Scientific Communication for Public Safety in Dallas and Irving, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanpied, M. L.; Perry, S. C.; Carriere, J.; DeShon, H. R.; Oden, K.; Vaz, R.; Williams, R. A.; Stump, B. W.; Hayward, C.; Choy, G. L.; Hoover, S. M.; Mueller, C. S.; LaGrassa, N.; Miller, G.; Osburn, M.

2016-12-01

Felt earthquakes have occurred in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Irving area since 2008, raising concern about seismic risks and potential links to petroleum industry activities - and leading to a productive, long-standing interaction between earthquake scientists and local government officials. City staff, including emergency managers, formed the Dallas Irving Earthquake Working Group (DIEWG) in early 2015 to share information, learn about their new hazard, and coordinate public messages and response planning. The DIEWG has held regular meetings that included academic and government experts including scientists from Southern Methodist University (SMU) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). SMU apprised DIEWG of monitoring and research results, and responded to media inquiries. USGS provided information about seismic hazard and the likelihood of damaging earthquakes, and worked with FEMA Regions VI & VIII to provide impact planning scenarios for plausible earthquakes of M4.8 and M5.6. USGS briefed DIEWG before the release of an assessment of the likelihood of damage from natural and induced earthquakes, as local officials needed to understand the information and its implications in order to translate for their constituents. DIEWG has now asked USGS to help to develop tabletop response exercises. Through these interactions, local officials and scientists increased understanding of each other's roles, capabilities and limitations. The interactions have also improved DIEWG members' understanding of earthquake risk and impact, supported hazard mitigation planning, influenced infrastructure and building code decisions, and informed conversations with residents and media. Input from DIEWG has improved scientists' translation of complex information for use in planning, and identified persistent misunderstandings about concepts and terminology that are relevant to many earthquake information products. A key aspect of this success has been the repeated personal interaction over time.

An in-situ stimulation experiment in crystalline rock - assessment of induced seismicity levels during stimulation and related hazard for nearby infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gischig, Valentin; Broccardo, Marco; Amann, Florian; Jalali, Mohammadreza; Esposito, Simona; Krietsch, Hannes; Doetsch, Joseph; Madonna, Claudio; Wiemer, Stefan; Loew, Simon; Giardini, Domenico

2016-04-01

A decameter in-situ stimulation experiment is currently being performed at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland by the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research - Supply of Electricity (SCCER-SoE). The underground research laboratory lies in crystalline rock at a depth of 480 m, and exhibits well-documented geology that is presenting some analogies with the crystalline basement targeted for the exploitation of deep geothermal energy resources in Switzerland. The goal is to perform a series of stimulation experiments spanning from hydraulic fracturing to controlled fault-slip experiments in an experimental volume approximately 30 m in diameter. The experiments will contribute to a better understanding of hydro-mechanical phenomena and induced seismicity associated with high-pressure fluid injections. Comprehensive monitoring during stimulation will include observation of injection rate and pressure, pressure propagation in the reservoir, permeability enhancement, 3D dislocation along the faults, rock mass deformation near the fault zone, as well as micro-seismicity. The experimental volume is surrounded by other in-situ experiments (at 50 to 500 m distance) and by infrastructure of the local hydropower company (at ~100 m to several kilometres distance). Although it is generally agreed among stakeholders related to the experiments that levels of induced seismicity may be low given the small total injection volumes of less than 1 m3, detailed analysis of the potential impact of the stimulation on other experiments and surrounding infrastructure is essential to ensure operational safety. In this contribution, we present a procedure how induced seismic hazard can be estimated for an experimental situation that is untypical for injection-induced seismicity in terms of injection volumes, injection depths and proximity to affected objects. Both, deterministic and probabilistic methods are employed to estimate that maximum possible and the maximum expected induced earthquake magnitude. Deterministic methods are based on McGarr's upper limit for the maximum induced seismic moment. Probabilistic methods rely on estimates of Shapiro's seismogenic index and seismicity rates from past stimulation experiments that are scaled to injection volumes of interest. Using rate-and-state frictional modelling coupled to a hydro-mechanical fracture flow model, we demonstrate that large uncontrolled rupture events are unlikely to occur and that deterministic upper limits may be sufficiently conservative. The proposed workflow can be applied to similar injection experiments, for which hazard to nearby infrastructure may limit experimental design.

New Directions in Seismic Hazard Assessment Through Focused Earth Observation in the MARmara SuperSITE - Project Achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral OZel, Nurcan; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Ergintav, Semih; Ozel, Oǧuz; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Çakır, Ziyadin; Ozeren, Sinan; Geli, Louis; Douglas, John; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zülfikar, Can; Şeşetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

2016-04-01

The MARsite Project, which started in November 2012,funded by the EC/ FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) identifies the Marmara region as a 'Supersite' within European initiatives to aggregate on-shore, off-shore and space-based observations, comprehensive geophysical monitoring, improved hazard and risk assessments encompassed in an integrated set of activities. MARsite aimed to harmonize geological, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical observations to provide a better view of the post-seismic deformation of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (in addition to the post-seismic signature of previous earthquakes), loading of submarine and inland active fault segments and transient pre-earthquake signals, related to stress loading with different tectonic properties in and around Marmara Sea. This presentation provides an overview of the achievements of MARSite which aimed to coordinate research groups ranging from seismology to gas geochemistry in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Marmara Region based on collection of multidisciplinary data to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users in charge of seismic risk management of the region. In addition, processes involved in earthquake generation and the physics of short-term seismic transients, 4D deformations to understand earthquake cycle processes, fluid activity monitoring and seismicity under the sea floor using existing autonomous instrumentation, early warning and development of real-time shake and loss information, real- and quasi-real-time earthquake and tsunami hazard monitoring and earthquake-induced landslide hazard topics are also covered within MARSite. In particular, achievements and progress in the design and building of a multi-parameter borehole system consisting of very wide dynamic range and stable borehole (VBB) broad band seismic sensor, with incorporated 3-D strain meter, tilt meter, and temperature and local hydrostatic pressure measuring devices would be reported. Progress has been marked on photogeological analysis of DInSAR temporal series and of space multispectral/hyperspectral image data, an important geophysical field survey of one of the most important landslide that yielded a refined geological engineering model, numerical dynamic modelling of this and installation of a real-time monitoring system the field. We improved the existing earthquake early warning and strong motion networks and they are mostly integrated. The early warning signals extend to the critical infrastructure's of Marmara Region like as natural gas distribution line IGDAS and transportation line MARMARAY). The project reached the following goals: intensive monitoring infrastructure have been installed, data sharing among the partners and researchers even the out of the Marsite project have been succesfully realized, more than 70 articles ,reports, presentations have been already issued (or published) and presented by 18 partners institutions.

CPT site characterization for seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, T.; Mayne, P.W.; Tuttle, M.P.; Schweig, E.S.; Van Arsdale, R.B.

2002-01-01

A series of cone penetration tests (CPTs) were conducted in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone in central USA for quantifying seismic hazards, obtaining geotechnical soil properties, and conducting studies at liquefaction sites related to the 1811-1812 and prehistoric New Madrid earthquakes. The seismic piezocone provides four independent measurements for delineating the stratigraphy, liquefaction potential, and site amplification parameters. At the same location, two independent assessments of soil liquefaction susceptibility can be made using both the normalized tip resistance (qc1N) and shear wave velocity (Vs1). In lieu of traditional deterministic approaches, the CPT data can be processed using probability curves to assess the level and likelihood of future liquefaction occurrence. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Loss modeling for pricing catastrophic bonds.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

In the research, a loss estimation framework is presented that directly relates seismic : hazard to seismic response to damage and hence to losses. A Performance-Based Earthquake : Engineering (PBEE) approach towards assessing the seismic vulnerabili...

Seismic risk management solution for nuclear power plants

DOE PAGES

Coleman, Justin; Sabharwall, Piyush

2014-12-01

Nuclear power plants should safely operate during normal operations and maintain core-cooling capabilities during off-normal events, including external hazards (such as flooding and earthquakes). Management of external hazards to expectable levels of risk is critical to maintaining nuclear facility and nuclear power plant safety. Seismic risk is determined by convolving the seismic hazard with seismic fragilities (capacity of systems, structures, and components). Seismic isolation (SI) is one protective measure showing promise to minimize seismic risk. Current SI designs (used in commercial industry) reduce horizontal earthquake loads and protect critical infrastructure from the potentially destructive effects of large earthquakes. The benefitmore » of SI application in the nuclear industry is being recognized and SI systems have been proposed in American Society of Civil Engineer Standard 4, ASCE-4, to be released in the winter of 2014, for light water reactors facilities using commercially available technology. The intent of ASCE-4 is to provide criteria for seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures such that the responses to design basis seismic events, computed in accordance with this standard, will have a small likelihood of being exceeded. The U.S. nuclear industry has not implemented SI to date; a seismic isolation gap analysis meeting was convened on August 19, 2014, to determine progress on implementing SI in the U.S. nuclear industry. The meeting focused on the systems and components that could benefit from SI. As a result, this article highlights the gaps identified at this meeting.« less

Towards Coupling of Macroseismic Intensity with Structural Damage Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouteva, Mihaela; Boshnakov, Krasimir

2016-04-01

Knowledge on basic data of ground motion acceleration time histories during earthquakes is essential to understanding the earthquake resistant behaviour of structures. Peak and integral ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion values (acceleration, velocity and displacement), measures of the frequency content of ground motion, duration of strong shaking and various intensity measures play important roles in seismic evaluation of existing facilities and design of new systems. Macroseismic intensity is an earthquake measure related to seismic hazard and seismic risk description. Having detailed ideas on the correlations between the earthquake damage potential and macroseismic intensity is an important issue in engineering seismology and earthquake engineering. Reliable earthquake hazard estimation is the major prerequisite to successful disaster risk management. The usage of advanced earthquake engineering approaches for structural response modelling is essential for reliable evaluation of the accumulated damages in the existing buildings and structures due to the history of seismic actions, occurred during their lifetime. Full nonlinear analysis taking into account single event or series of earthquakes and the large set of elaborated damage indices are suitable contemporary tools to cope with this responsible task. This paper presents some results on the correlation between observational damage states, ground motion parameters and selected analytical damage indices. Damage indices are computed on the base of nonlinear time history analysis of test reinforced structure, characterising the building stock of the Mediterranean region designed according the earthquake resistant requirements in mid XX-th century.

Seismic hazard of the Kivu rift (western branch, East African Rift system): new neotectonic map and seismotectonic zonation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi Mwene Ntabwoba, Stanislas; Fiama Bondo, Silvanos; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder

2017-04-01

The first detailed probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa. This region, which forms the central part of the Western Rift Branch, is one of the most seismically active part of the East African rift system. It was already integrated in large scale seismic hazard assessments, but here we defined a finer zonation model with 7 different zones representing the lateral variation of the geological and geophysical setting across the region. In order to build the new zonation model, we compiled homogeneous cross-border geological, neotectonic and sismotectonic maps over the central part of East D.R. Congo, SW Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and NW Tanzania and defined a new neotectonic sheme. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue, compiled on the basis of various local and global earthquake catalogues. The use of macroseismic epicenters determined from felt earthquakes allowed to extend the time-range back to the beginning of the 20th century, spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. From this initial catalogue, a catalogue of 359 events from 1956 to 2015 and with M > 4.4 has been extracted for the seismic hazard assessment. The seismotectonic zonation includes 7 seismic source areas that have been defined on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined using both the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method (Kijko & Smit aue program). Seismic hazard maps have been computed with the Crisis 2012 software using 3 different attenuation laws. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates (Delvaux et al., 2016). They vary laterally in function of the tectonic setting, with the lowest value in the volcanically active Virunga - Rutshuru zone, highest in the currently non-volcanic parts of Lake Kivu, Rusizi valley and North Tanganyika rift zone, and intermediate in the regions flanking the axial rift zone. Those are to be considered as preliminary values, as there are a number of important uncertainties such as the heterogeneity and relatively short duration of the instrumental seismic catalogue used (60 years), the absence of locally derived attenuation laws and thus the choice of the attenuation laws used, and the seismic zonation scheme. Delvaux, D. et al., 2016. Journal of African Earth Sciences, doi: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2016.10.004.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Extreme magnitude earthquakes and their economical impact: The Mexico City case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, M.; Mario, C.

2005-12-01

The consequences (estimated by the human and economical losses) of the recent occurrence (worldwide) of extreme magnitude (for the region under consideration) earthquakes, such as the 19 09 1985 in Mexico (Ritchter magnitude Ms 8.1, moment magnitude Mw 8.01), or the one in Indonesia of the 26 12 2004 (Ms 9.4, Mw 9.3), stress the importance of performing seismic hazard analysis that, specifically, incorporate this possibility. Herewith, we present and apply a methodology, based on plausible extreme seismic scenarios and the computation of their associated synthetic accelerograms, to estimate the seismic hazard on Mexico City (MC) stiff and compressible surficial soils. The uncertainties about the characteristics of the potential finite seismic sources, as well as those related to the dynamic properties of MC compressible soils are taken into account. The economic consequences (i.e. the seismic risk = seismic hazard x economic cost) implicit in the seismic coefficients proposed in MC seismic Codes before (1976) and after the 1985 earthquake (2004) are analyzed. Based on the latter and on an acceptable risk criterion, a maximum seismic coefficient (MSC) of 1.4g (g = 9.81m/s2) of the elastic acceleration design spectra (5 percent damping), which has a probability of exceedance of 2.4 x 10-4, seems to be appropriate for analyzing the seismic behavior of infrastructure located on MC compressible soils, if extreme Mw 8.5 subduction thrust mechanism earthquakes (similar to the one occurred on 19 09 1985 with an observed, equivalent, MSC of 1g) occurred in the next 50 years.

2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion.

Distributions of strong ground motion due to dynamic ruptures across a bimaterial fault: Implications for seismic hazard analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Jie; Zhu, Shoubiao

2016-12-01

We perform 2-D finite element calculations of mode II rupture along a bimaterial interface governed by regularized rate- and state-dependent friction law, with the goal of understanding how the bimaterial interface influences the strong ground motion. By comparison with properties of rupture in a homogeneous solid, we found that bimaterial mechanism is important for earthquake ruptures and influences the strong ground motion significantly. The simulated results show that mode II rupture evolves with propagation distance along a bimaterial interface to a unilateral wrinkle-like pulse in the direction of slip on the compliant side of the fault, namely in the positive direction. Strong ground motion caused by seismic waves emanated from the rupture propagation is asymmetrically distributed in space. The computed peak ground acceleration (PGA) is high in the near-fault region. Particularly, PGA is much larger in the region on the side in the positive direction. In addition, it is greater in the more compliant area of the model than that in the stiffer area with corresponding locations. Moreover, the differential PGA due to bimaterial effect increases with increasing degree of material contrast across the fault. It is hoped that the results obtained in this investigation will provide some implications for seismic hazard assessment and fault rupture mechanics.

Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2012-04-01

Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The results also allow to develop effective emergency response plans taking into account possible scenario events. Taking into consideration the size of the oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones, the results of seismic risk computation are used by TRANSNEFT JSC.

CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Michael, A. J.; Naylor, M.; Steacy, S.; Wiemer, S.; Zhuang, J.

2011-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the evaluation of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology-especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy-statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA, www.corssa.org). We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each will contain between four and eight articles. CORSSA now includes seven articles with an additional six in draft form along with forums for discussion, a glossary, and news about upcoming meetings, special issues, and recent papers. Each article is peer-reviewed and presents a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. We have also begun curating a collection of statistical seismology software packages.

Satellite Detection of the Convection Generated Stresses in Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Han-Shou; Kolenkiewicz, Ronald; Li, Jin-Ling; Chen, Jiz-Hong

2003-01-01

We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.

Challenges in Assessing Seismic Hazard in Intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintersberger, E.; Kuebler, S.; Landgraf, A.; Stein, S. A.

2014-12-01

Intraplate regions are often characterized by scattered, clustered and migrating seismicity and the occurrence of low-strain areas next to high-strain ones. Increasing evidence for large paleoearthquakes in such regions together with population growth and development of critical facilities, call for better assessments of earthquake hazards. Existing seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe is based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past 1000 years, as well some active fault data. These observations face important limitations due to the quantity and quality of the available data bases. Even considering the long record of historical events in some populated areas of Europe, this time-span of thousand years likely fails to capture some faults' typical large-event recurrence intervals that are in the order of tens of thousands of years. Paleoseismology helps lengthen the observation window, but only produces point measurements, and preferentially in regions suspected to be seismically active. As a result, the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are quite uncertain, likely to be underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues in particular arise in the heavily populated Rhine Graben and Vienna Basin areas, and in considering the hazard to critical facilities like nuclear power plants posed by low-probability events.

Glacial seismology.

PubMed

Aster, R C; Winberry, J P

2017-12-01

Seismic source and wave propagation studies contribute to understanding structure, transport, fracture mechanics, mass balance, and other processes within glaciers and surrounding environments. Glaciogenic seismic waves readily couple with the bulk Earth, and can be recorded by seismographs deployed at local to global ranges. Although the fracturing, ablating, melting, and/or highly irregular environment of active glaciers can be highly unstable and hazardous, informative seismic measurements can commonly be made at stable proximal ice or rock sites. Seismology also contributes more broadly to emerging studies of elastic and gravity wave coupling between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, and cryosphere, and recent scientific and technical advances have produced glaciological/seismological collaborations across a broad range of scales and processes. This importantly includes improved insight into the responses of cryospheric systems to changing climate and other environmental conditions. Here, we review relevant fundamental physics and glaciology, and provide a broad review of the current state of glacial seismology and its rapidly evolving future directions.

Glacial seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aster, R. C.; Winberry, J. P.

2017-12-01

Seismic source and wave propagation studies contribute to understanding structure, transport, fracture mechanics, mass balance, and other processes within glaciers and surrounding environments. Glaciogenic seismic waves readily couple with the bulk Earth, and can be recorded by seismographs deployed at local to global ranges. Although the fracturing, ablating, melting, and/or highly irregular environment of active glaciers can be highly unstable and hazardous, informative seismic measurements can commonly be made at stable proximal ice or rock sites. Seismology also contributes more broadly to emerging studies of elastic and gravity wave coupling between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, and cryosphere, and recent scientific and technical advances have produced glaciological/seismological collaborations across a broad range of scales and processes. This importantly includes improved insight into the responses of cryospheric systems to changing climate and other environmental conditions. Here, we review relevant fundamental physics and glaciology, and provide a broad review of the current state of glacial seismology and its rapidly evolving future directions.

Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Awad

2016-04-01

Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be analyzed with high priority and redesigned to increase the safety of the embankments and their appurtenant structures, if necessary. Key word Aswan High Dam, Earthquake hazard reduction

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2016-04-01

Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

2018-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

2018-02-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

Seismic behaviour of mountain belts controlled by plate convergence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Zilio, Luca; van Dinther, Ylona; Gerya, Taras V.; Pranger, Casper C.

2018-01-01

The relative contribution of tectonic and kinematic processes to seismic behaviour of mountain belts is still controversial. To understand the partitioning between these processes we developed a model that simulates both tectonic and seismic processes in a continental collision setting. These 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) models obtain a Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution due to spontaneous events occurring throughout the orogen. Our simulations suggest that both the corresponding slope (b value) and maximum earthquake magnitude (MWmax) correlate linearly with plate convergence rate. By analyzing 1D rheological profiles and isotherm depths we demonstrate that plate convergence rate controls the brittle strength through a rheological feedback with temperature and strain rate. Faster convergence leads to cooler temperatures and also results in more larger seismogenic domains, thereby increasing both MWmax and the relative number of large earthquakes (decreasing b value). This mechanism also predicts a more seismogenic lower crust, which is confirmed by a transition from uni- to bi-modal hypocentre depth distributions in our models. This transition and a linear relation between convergence rate and b value and MWmax is supported by our comparison of earthquakes recorded across the Alps, Apennines, Zagros and Himalaya. These results imply that deformation in the Alps occurs in a more ductile manner compared to the Himalayas, thereby reducing its seismic hazard. Furthermore, a second set of experiments with higher temperature and different orogenic architecture shows the same linear relation with convergence rate, suggesting that large-scale tectonic structure plays a subordinate role. We thus propose that plate convergence rate, which also controls the average differential stress of the orogen and its linear relation to the b value, is the first-order parameter controlling seismic hazard of mountain belts.

New strong motion network in Georgia: basis for specifying seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.

2017-12-01

Risk created by hazardous natural events is closely related to sustainable development of the society. Global observations have confirmed tendency of growing losses resulting from natural disasters, one of the most dangerous and destructive if which are earthquakes. Georgia is located in seismically active region. So, it is imperative to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic risk with proper accuracy. National network of Georgia includes 35 station all of which are seismometers. There are significant gaps in strong motion recordings, which essential for seismic hazard assessment. To gather more accelerometer recordings, we have built a strong motion network distributed on the territory of Georgia. The network includes 6 stations for now, with Basalt 4x datalogger and strong motion sensor Episensor ES-T. For each site, Vs30 and soil resonance frequencies have been measured. Since all but one station (Tabakhmelam near Tbilisi), are located far from power and internet lines special system was created for instrument operation. Solar power is used to supply the system with electricity and GSM/LTE modems for internet access. VPN tunnel was set up using Raspberry pi, for two-way communication with stations. Tabakhmela station is located on grounds of Ionosphere Observatory, TSU and is used as a hub for the network. This location also includes a broadband seismometer and VLF electromagnetic waves observation antenna, for possible earthquake precursor studies. On server, located in Tabakhmela, the continues data is collected from all the stations, for later use. The recordings later will be used in different seismological and engineering problems, namely selecting and creating GMPE model for Caucasus, for probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic risk evaluation. These stations are a start and in the future expansion of strong motion network is planned. Along with this, electromagnetic wave observations will continue and additional antennas will be implemented with strong motion sensors and possible earthquake precursors will be studied using complex methods of observation and data analysis.

Long-period amplification in deep alluvial basins and consequences for site-specific probabilistic seismic-hazard: the case of Castelleone in the Po Plain (Northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barani, S.; Mascandola, C.; Massa, M.; Spallarossa, D.

2017-12-01

The recent Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy) occurred at the end of the first half of 2012 with main shock of Mw6.1 highlighted the importance of studying site effects in the Po Plain, the larger and deeper sedimentary basin in Italy. As has long been known, long-period amplification related to deep sedimentary basins can significantly affect the characteristics of the ground-motion induced by strong earthquakes. It follows that the effects of deep sedimentary deposits on ground shaking require special attention during the definition of the design seismic action. The work presented here analyzes the impact of deep-soil discontinuities on ground-motion amplification, with particular focus on long-period probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. The study focuses on the site of Castelleone, where a seismic station of the Italian National Seismic Network has been recording since 2009. Our study includes both experimental and numerical site response analyses. Specifically, extensive active and passive geophysical measurements were carried out in order to define a detailed shear-wave velocity (VS) model to be used in the numerical analyses. These latter are needed to assess the site-specific ground-motion hazard. Besides classical seismic refraction profiles and multichannel analysis of surface waves, we analyzed ambient vibration measurements in both single and array configurations. The VS profile was determined via joint inversion of the experimental phase-velocity dispersion curve with the ellipticity curve derived from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios. The profile shows two main discontinuities at depths of around 160 and 1350 m, respectively. The probabilistic site-specific hazard was assessed in terms of both spectral acceleration and displacement. A partially non-ergodic approach was adopted. We have found that the spectral acceleration hazard is barely sensitive to long-period (up to 10 s) amplification related to the deeper discontinuity whereas the displacement hazard is strongly affected. Our results show that neglecting the effects of the deeper discontinuity implies an underestimation of the hazard of up to about 49% for a mean return period (MRP) of 475 years and 57% for an MRP of 2475 years, with possible consequences on the design of very tall buildings and large bridges.

A Reappraisal of Seismicity and Eruptions of Pantelleria Island and the Sicily Channel (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spampinato, Salvatore; Ursino, Andrea; Barbano, Maria Serafina; Pirrotta, Claudia; Rapisarda, Salvatore; Larocca, Graziano; Platania, Pier Raffaele

2017-07-01

Three main tectonic depressions (the Pantelleria, Linosa and Malta troughs), the expression of a continental rift, characterize the Sicily Channel, a region with recent volcanic activity attested by the Pantelleria and Linosa volcanic islands, as well as numerous seamounts. To understand the seismic and eruptive behaviour of this area, we compare historical and instrumental seismicity retrieved from catalogues with recordings from both a mobile seismic network and a permanent station deployed at Pantelleria. A review of historical eruptions affecting the Sicily Channel is also presented. Recent instrumental seismicity shows that the Sicily Channel is characterized by a low level of seismicity, with earthquakes mainly occurring as isolated events, rather than swarms as observed during the few documented eruptive periods. The results of a seismic survey in 2006-2007, as well as the signals recorded by a permanent station in 2010-2014, enable stating that also Pantelleria is characterized by a very low rate of seismicity. The available, though scant, historical information suggests a recurrence time of about a century for the volcanic activity and that eruptions are usually preceded by seismic swarms. In the only historical known eruption of Pantelleria, in addition to shocks, uplifting and increasing fumarole activity, were observed. Notwithstanding the lack of eruptions over the past century, and despite the low recent seismic rate, we believe that the geophysical monitoring of the Sicily Channel needs improving since it is an area of potentially high seismic and volcanic hazard given the presence of several active submarine eruptive centres.

Using exhumation histories to constrain Main Himalayan Thrust geometry and seismic hazard in the western Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, J. E.; Burbank, D.

2016-12-01

The Himalaya of western Nepal present a challenge to conventional understanding of the geometry and behavior of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), a major seismogenic structure which accommodates 2 cm/yr of Indo-Asian convergence. Slip along a steeper ramp in the MHT drives long-term uplift of the Greater Himalaya along >1000 km of the central range front, resulting in a conspicuous physiographic transition known as PT2. This physiographic break is seemingly absent in western Nepal, which suggests a structural geometry and/or kinematic history distinct from areas along strike. This anomaly must be investigated to clarify how seismic hazard may differ from better-understood areas along strike. The importance of this work is heightened by the recent and catastrophic Gorkha earthquake in 2015. We present a suite of 7 relief transects comprising a mix of apatite and zircon U-Th/He and muscovite Ar-Ar cooling ages. These transects were collected across the more gradual mountain front in western Nepal in an effort to clarify where uplift and exhumation have been focused over the past 10 Ma. We invert these cooling ages using the thermo-kinematic model Pecube in order to constrain exhumation histories that best fit the measured cooling ages. Results confirm that MHT geometry and kinematic history in western Nepal are far more complex than in better-studied areas along strike. Exhumation rates in the along-strike projection of PT2 are slow ( 0.1-0.2 km/Myr) compared with rates 50 km toward the hinterland ( 1.0-1.5 km/Myr), suggesting that exhumation has been more rapid in this more northerly position for the past several Ma. Although a range of kinematic scenarios could explain the anomalous cooling histories, it is likely that a recently active midcrustal ramp in the MHT sits beneath this more northerly position. If the 2015 Gorkha earthquake initiated near the up-dip end of the MHT ramp in central Nepal, it is conceivable that similarly hazardous earthquakes could trigger from an analogous structural position in western Nepal, which puts seismic hazard well north of where one would expect by simply projecting PT2 across western Nepal. In addition to clarifying the seismic hazard posed by the MHT to populations in the region, these results are especially relevant to the proposed large hydroelectric dam projects in the region.

Implementing the effect of the rupture directivity on PSHA maps: Application to the Marmara Region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, Andre; Spagnuolo, Elena; Akinci, Aybige; Pucci, Stefano

2016-04-01

In the present study we attempted to improve the seismic hazard assessment taking into account possible sources of epistemic uncertainty and the azimuthal variability of the ground motions which, at a particular site, is significantly influenced by the rupture mechanism and the rupture direction relative to the site. As a study area we selected Marmara Region (Turkey), especially the city of Istanbul which is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The seismic hazard in the city is mainly associated with two active fault segments which are located at about 20-30 km south of Istanbul. In this perspective first we proposed a methodology to incorporate this new information such as nucleation point in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) framework. Secondly we introduced information about those fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics which affect the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution i.e. source directivity effect and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA, Power et al. 2008) ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) introducing rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. We used the GMPEs as derived by the Abrahamson and Silva (2008) and the Boore and Atkinson (2008); our results are given in terms of 10% probability of exceedance of PSHA (at several periods from 0.5 s to 10 s) in 50 years on rock site condition; the correction for directivity introduces a significant contribution to the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed using the directivity model respect to the seismic hazard standard practice. In particular, we benefited the dynamic simulation from a previous study (Aochi & Utrich, 2015) aimed at evaluating the seismic potential of the Marmara region to derive a statistical distribution for nucleation position. Our results suggest that accounting for rupture related parameters in a PSHA using deterministic information from dynamic models is feasible and in particular, the use of a non-uniform statistical distribution for nucleation position has serious consequences on the hazard assessment. Since the directivity effect is conditional on the nucleation position the hazard map changes with the assumptions made. A worst case scenario (both the faults are rupturing towards the city of Istanbul) predicts up to 25% change than the standard formulation at 2 sec and increases with longer periods. The former result is heavily different if a deterministically based nucleation position is assumed.

Insights into the Fault Geometry and Rupture History of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, M.; Ji, C.

2017-12-01

The November 14th 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake occurred along the east coast of the northern part of the South Island. The local tectonic setting is complicated. The central South Island is dominated by oblique continental convergence, whereas the southern part of this island experiences eastward subduction of the Australian plate. Available information (e.g., Hamling et al., 2017; Bradley et al., 2017) indicate that this earthquake involved multiple fault segments of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) as the rupture propagated northwards for more than 150 km. Additional slip might also occur on the subduction interface of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, beneath the MFS. However, the exact number of involved fault segments as well as the temporal co-seismic rupture sequence has not been fully determined with geodetic and geological observations. Knowledge of the kinematics of complex fault interactions has important implications for our understanding of global seismic hazards, particularly to relatively unmodeled multisegment ruptures. Understanding the Kaikoura earthquake will provide insight into how one incorporates multi-fault ruptures in seismic-hazard models. We propose to apply a multiple double-couple inversion to determine the fault geometry and spatiotemporal rupture history using teleseismic and strong motion waveforms, before constraining the detailed slip history using both seismic and geodetic data. The Kaikoura earthquake will be approximated as the summation of multiple subevents—each represented as a double-couple point source, characterized by i) fault geometry (strike, dip and rake), ii) seismic moment, iii) centroid time, iv) half-duration and v) location (latitude, longitude and depth), a total of nine variables. We progressively increase the number of point sources until the additional source cannot produce significant improvement to the observations. Our preliminary results using only teleseismic data indicate that, broadly speaking, the sequence of fault planes dips towards the northwest and the motion of slip is largely to the northeast. Sequence and timing of the rupturing faults is still to be determined.

Temblor, an App to Transform Seismic Science into Personal Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevilgen, V.; Jacobson, D. S.; Stein, R. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.

2016-12-01

Government agencies and academic researchers provide a rich stream of seismic and engineering data. In addition to rapid earthquake notifications and damage assessments, these form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and loss evaluations used by emergency management agencies, practicing engineers and geologists, and the insurance industry. But the data and the assessments that grow out of them are notoriously difficult for the public to comprehend. For example, who but the cognoscenti understands what "2% exceedance probability in 50 years," "0.5 g peak ground acceleration," or "moment-magnitude" mean? Nowhere is this divide more stark than in earthquake insurance. Using proprietary models, insurers calculate the probability of a payout above the deductible for your home policy, but sell the policy as "peace of mind" or "the strength to rebuild." How can a homeowner act in her best financial interests under these circumstances? Temblor (temblor.net) is our attempt to make seismic risk lucid, personal, and actionable. Free and ad-free, Temblor uses the best available public data and methods. Temblor gives you the seismic hazard rank of your location anywhere in the U.S. In its maps, you can see the active faults and recent quakes, and the landslide, liquefaction, tsunami inundation, and flood zones around you. Temblor also displays the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model of Bird et al. (2015). By entering the construction year and square footage for homes within the U.S., you learn the likely cost for seismic damage, and how that cost could be reduced by retrofit or covered by insurance. To give context to this decision, the app compares your seismic risk to other risks homeowners protect themselves against or insure for. Temblor estimates the cost and the most probable financial and safety benefits of a retrofit based on your location, home age and size, so you can decide if the expenditure makes sense. Seeking to make quakes more fascinating than frightening, the Temblor blog provides insights about the latest quakes, and editorials about seismic safety and scientific discoveries. Ultimately, Temblor's mission is not to scare, soothe, or snow people, but to be scientifically credible and personally useful.

Seismogenic structures of the central Apennines and its implication for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Riaz, M. S.; Shan, B.

2017-12-01

The central Apennines belt is formed during the Miocene-to-Pliocene epoch under the environment where the Adriatic Plate collides with and plunges beneath the Eurasian Plate, eventually formed a fold and thrust belt. This active fold and thrust belt has experienced relatively frequent moderate-magnitude earthquakesover, as well as strong destructive earthquakes such as the 1997 Umbira-Marche sequence, the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, and three strong earthquakes occurred in 2016. Such high seismicity makes it one of the most active tectonic zones in the world. Moreover, most of these earthquakes are normal fault events with shallow depths, and most earthquakes occurred in the central Apennines are of lower seismic energy to moment ratio. What seismogenic structure causes such kind of seismic features? and how about the potential seismic hazard in the study region? In order to make in-depth understanding about the seismogenic structures in this reion, we collected seismic data from the INGV, Italy, to model the crustal structure, and to relocate the earthquakes. To improve the spatial resolution of the tomographic images, we collected travel times from 27627 earthquakes with M>1.7 recorded at 387 seismic stations. Double Difference Tomography (hereafter as DDT) is applied to build velocity structures and earthquake locations. Checkerboard test confirms that the spatial resolution between the depths range from 5 20km is better than 10km. The travel time residual is significantly decreased from 1208 ms to 70 ms after the inversion. Horizontal Vp images show that mostly earthquakes occurred in high anomalies zones, especially between 5 10km, whereas at the deeper depths, some of the earthquakes occurred in the low Vp anomalies. For Vs images, shallow earthquakes mainly occurred in low anomalies zone, at depths range of 10 15km, earthquakes are mainly concentrated in normal velocity or relatively lower anomalies zones. Moreover, mostly earthquakes occurred in high Poisson ratio zones, especially at shallower depths. Since high Poisson's ratio anomalies are usually correspondent to weaker zones, and mostly earthquakes are occurred at the shallow depths. Due to this reason, the strength should be lower, so that the seismic energy to moment ratio is also lower.

Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.

2001-01-01

The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude distribution similar to that including characteristic earthquakes. The island chain northwest of Hawaii Island is seismically and volcanically much less active. We model its seismic hazard with a combination of a linearly decaying ramp fit to the cataloged seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity with a smoothing half-width of 10 km. We use a combination of up to four attenuation relations for each map because for either PGA or SA, there is no single relation that represents ground motion for all distance and magnitude ranges. Great slumps and landslides visible on the ocean floor correspond to catastrophes with effective energy magnitudes ME above 8.0. A crude estimate of their frequency suggests that the probabilistic earthquake hazard is at least an order of magnitude higher for flank earthquakes than that from submarine slumps.

The Geological Susceptibility of Induced Earthquakes in the Duvernay Play

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawley, Steven; Schultz, Ryan; Playter, Tiffany; Corlett, Hilary; Shipman, Todd; Lyster, Steven; Hauck, Tyler

2018-02-01

Presently, consensus on the incorporation of induced earthquakes into seismic hazard has yet to be established. For example, the nonstationary, spatiotemporal nature of induced earthquakes is not well understood. Specific to the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, geological bias in seismogenic activation potential has been suggested to control the spatial distribution of induced earthquakes regionally. In this paper, we train a machine learning algorithm to systemically evaluate tectonic, geomechanical, and hydrological proxies suspected to control induced seismicity. Feature importance suggests that proximity to basement, in situ stress, proximity to fossil reef margins, lithium concentration, and rate of natural seismicity are among the strongest model predictors. Our derived seismogenic potential map faithfully reproduces the current distribution of induced seismicity and is suggestive of other regions which may be prone to induced earthquakes. The refinement of induced seismicity geological susceptibility may become an important technique to identify significant underlying geological features and address induced seismic hazard forecasting issues.

Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

2017-09-01

We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

The effect of directivity in a PSHA framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2012-09-01

We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 20 per cent of the hazard level in case of dip-slip faults with uniform distribution of hypocentre location, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 s, exceeding probability of 10 per cent in 50 yr. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike-slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100 per cent (for strike-slip, unilateral faults). The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a priori information is available. However, nowadays good a priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. The percentage of variation obtained is strongly dependent on the type of model chosen to represent analytically the directivity effect. Therefore, it is our aim to emphasize more on the methodology following which, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic seismic hazard formulation.

Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bela, J.

2015-12-01

The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the GSHAP team; even though the obvious inadequacy of the GSHAP map could have been established in the course of a simple check before the project completion. The doctrine of "psha exceptionalism" that created the maps can only be esponged by carefully examining the facts . . . which unfortunately include huge human losses!

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for a NPP in the Upper Rhine Graben, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Christophe; Chartier, Thomas; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane; Scotti, Oona; Cushing, Edward

2015-04-01

The southern part of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) straddling the border between eastern France and western Germany, presents a relatively important seismic activity for an intraplate area. A magnitude 5 or greater shakes the URG every 25 years and in 1356 a magnitude greater than 6.5 struck the city of Basel. Several potentially active faults have been identified in the area and documented in the French Active Fault Database (web site in construction). These faults are located along the Graben boundaries and also inside the Graben itself, beneath heavily populated areas and critical facilities (including the Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant). These faults are prone to produce earthquakes with magnitude 6 and above. Published regional models and preliminary geomorphological investigations provided provisional assessment of slip rates for the individual faults (0.1-0.001 mm/a) resulting in recurrence time of 10 000 years or greater for magnitude 6+ earthquakes. Using a fault model, ground motion response spectra are calculated for annual frequencies of exceedance (AFE) ranging from 10-4 to 10-8 per year, typical for design basis and probabilistic safety analyses of NPPs. A logic tree is implemented to evaluate uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment. The choice of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and range of slip rate uncertainty are the main sources of seismic hazard variability at the NPP site. In fact, the hazard for AFE lower than 10-4 is mostly controlled by the potentially active nearby Rhine River fault. Compared with areal source zone models, a fault model localizes the hazard around the active faults and changes the shape of the Uniform Hazard Spectrum at the site. Seismic hazard deaggregations are performed to identify the earthquake scenarios (including magnitude, distance and the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by GMPEs) that contribute to the exceedance of spectral acceleration for the different AFE levels. These scenarios are finally examined with respect to the seismicity data available in paleoseismic, historic and instrumental catalogues.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Kivu rift segment based on a new sismo-tectonic zonation model (Western Branch of the East African Rift system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havenith, Hans-Balder; Delvaux, Damien

2015-04-01

In the frame of the Belgian GeoRisCA multi-risk assessment project focused on the Kivu and Northern Tanganyika Region, a seismic hazard map has been produced for this area. It is based on a on a recently re-compiled catalogue using various local and global earthquake catalogues. The use of macroseismic epicenters determined from felt earthquakes allowed to extend the time-range back to the beginning of the 20th century, thus spanning about 100 years. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and the coherence of the catalogue has been checked and validated. The seismo-tectonic zonation includes 10 seismic source areas that have been defined on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of earthquake epicenters. The seismic catalogue was filtered by removing obvious aftershocks and Gutenberg-Richter Laws were determined for each zone. On the basis of this seismo-tectonic information and existing attenuation laws that had been established by Twesigomwe (1997) and Mavonga et al. (2007) for this area, seismic hazard has been computed with the Crisis 2012 (Ordaz et al., 2012) software. The outputs of this assessment clearly show higher PGA values (for 475 years return period) along the Rift than the previous estimates by Twesigomwe (1997) and Mavonga (2007) while the same attenuation laws had been used. The main reason for these higher PGA values is likely to be related to the more detailed zonation of the Rift structure marked by a strong gradient of the seismicity from outside the rift zone to the inside. Mavonga, T. (2007). An estimate of the attenuation relationship for the strong ground motion in the Kivu Province, Western Rift Valley of Africa. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 62, 13-21. Ordaz M, Martinelli F, Aguilar A, Arboleda J, Meletti C, D'Amico V. (2012). CRISIS 2012, Program for computing seismic hazard. Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Twesigomwe, E. (1997). Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Uganda, Ph.D. Thesis, Dept. of Physics, Makare University, Uganda.

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Relating Stress Drop Variations with Geological Setting for Injection-Induced Seismicity and Its Seismic Hazard Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbancic, T.; Viegas, G. F.; Baig, A.

2017-12-01

We observe conflicting stress drop estimates of M0 to M4 injection-induced earthquakes in two regions of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Induced earthquakes in the Horn River Basin show lower stress drops than induced earthquakes in the Duvernay Basin by a factor of 10 to 20. Higher stress drop earthquakes have a significant role in seismic hazard as they generate higher frequency strong ground motions which can potentially cause more damages, making it important to understand its causes. Both earthquake datasets occur below shale reservoirs under hydraulic-fracture stimulation programs. Both treatment programs target the same shale formation (Muskwa in Horn River Basin and Duvernay in Duvernay Basin) at approximately the same depth (3 km). Both reservoirs are located to the edge of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin bordering the Rocky Mountains and are under the same tectonic setting, both currently and during the Devonian depositional phase. The major observable difference is the local geology. While the Horn River Basin in northeast British Columbia shows mostly continuous horizontal stratification the Duvernay shale in the Fox Creek region in Alberta drapes over Leduc Formation reefs which cross-cut it as chains of reefs, isolated atolls and isolated pinnacles. Schultz et al. (2017) showed that induced seismicity in the Duvernay Basin region occurs primarily in the margins of the Devonian carbonate reefs (10 to 20 km away) where optimally oriented basement faults exist. The fault system is in part associated with basement tectonism and isostatic compensation mechanisms involved in the reefs diagenesis. We propose that the observed stress drop differences are caused by different regional stress characteristics, with events occurring in more stressed regions having higher stress drops. These areas of higher stress are found at the margins of the denser Leduc reefs formation and may be caused either by load transfer, isostatic compensation mechanisms, and accumulation of strain energy in the underlying fault system. The geological setting in which earthquakes occur may be a more important factor than previously considered in seismic hazard studies.

Giant seismites and megablock uplift in the East African Rift: evidence for Late Pleistocene large magnitude earthquakes.

PubMed

Hilbert-Wolf, Hannah Louise; Roberts, Eric M

2015-01-01

In lieu of comprehensive instrumental seismic monitoring, short historical records, and limited fault trench investigations for many seismically active areas, the sedimentary record provides important archives of seismicity in the form of preserved horizons of soft-sediment deformation features, termed seismites. Here we report on extensive seismites in the Late Quaternary-Recent (≤ ~ 28,000 years BP) alluvial and lacustrine strata of the Rukwa Rift Basin, a segment of the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. We document examples of the most highly deformed sediments in shallow, subsurface strata close to the regional capital of Mbeya, Tanzania. This includes a remarkable, clastic 'megablock complex' that preserves remobilized sediment below vertically displaced blocks of intact strata (megablocks), some in excess of 20 m-wide. Documentation of these seismites expands the database of seismogenic sedimentary structures, and attests to large magnitude, Late Pleistocene-Recent earthquakes along the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. Understanding how seismicity deforms near-surface sediments is critical for predicting and preparing for modern seismic hazards, especially along the East African Rift and other tectonically active, developing regions.

Giant Seismites and Megablock Uplift in the East African Rift: Evidence for Late Pleistocene Large Magnitude Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Hilbert-Wolf, Hannah Louise; Roberts, Eric M.

2015-01-01

In lieu of comprehensive instrumental seismic monitoring, short historical records, and limited fault trench investigations for many seismically active areas, the sedimentary record provides important archives of seismicity in the form of preserved horizons of soft-sediment deformation features, termed seismites. Here we report on extensive seismites in the Late Quaternary-Recent (≤ ~ 28,000 years BP) alluvial and lacustrine strata of the Rukwa Rift Basin, a segment of the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. We document examples of the most highly deformed sediments in shallow, subsurface strata close to the regional capital of Mbeya, Tanzania. This includes a remarkable, clastic ‘megablock complex’ that preserves remobilized sediment below vertically displaced blocks of intact strata (megablocks), some in excess of 20 m-wide. Documentation of these seismites expands the database of seismogenic sedimentary structures, and attests to large magnitude, Late Pleistocene-Recent earthquakes along the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. Understanding how seismicity deforms near-surface sediments is critical for predicting and preparing for modern seismic hazards, especially along the East African Rift and other tectonically active, developing regions. PMID:26042601

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

P- and S-Wave Speeds of the Very Upper Crust Estimated by a New Technique Based Upon Body-Wave Polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Ishii, M.

2017-12-01

Various seismic imaging methods have been developed, such as traveltime, waveform, and noise tomography, improving our knowledge of the subsurface structure and evolution. Near-surface structure, in particular, is crucial in understanding earthquake and volcano hazards. Seismic speed is directly related to the level of ground shaking, and monitoring its temporal change is valuable in volcanic hazard assessment. Here, we introduce a novel technique to constrain seismic wave speed of the very upper crust based upon the polarization measurements of teleseismic body-wave arrivals. The technique relates the orientation of recorded body waves to the wave speed immediately beneath a seismic instrument. We develop a counter-intuitive relationship that the P-wave polarization direction is only sensitive to subsurface shear wave speed but not to compressional wave speed, while the S-wave polarization direction is sensitive to both wave speeds. This approach is applied to the High-Sensitivity Seismograph Network in Japan, where the results are benchmarked against the borehole well data available at most stations. There is a good agreement between polarization-based estimates and the well measurements at as shallow as 100 m, confirming the efficacy of the new method in resolving the shallow structure. The lateral variation of wave speeds shows that sedimentary basins and mountainous regions are characterized by low and high wave speeds, respectively. It also correlates with volcano locations and geological units of different ages. Moreover, the analysis is expanded into 3D by examining the frequency dependence, where some preliminary results using broadband data are presented. These 2D and 3D wave speed estimates can be used to identify zones of high seismic risk by comparison with population distribution. This technique requires minimal computation resources and can be applied to any single three-component seismograph. It opens a new path to a reliable, non-invasive, and inexpensive earthquake hazard assessment in any environment where a drilling or a field experiment using vibro-trucks or explosives is not a practical option for measuring the near-surface seismic wave speeds. It can also provide means of monitoring changes that occur within the very upper crust such as from volcanic or hydrological phenomena.

Time-Independent Annual Seismic Rates, Based on Faults and Smoothed Seismicity, Computed for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murru, M.; Falcone, G.; Taroni, M.; Console, R.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Italian Department of Civil Protection, started a project for upgrading the official Italian seismic hazard map (MPS04) inviting the Italian scientific community to participate in a joint effort for its realization. We participated providing spatially variable time-independent (Poisson) long-term annual occurrence rates of seismic events on the entire Italian territory, considering cells of 0.1°x0.1° from M4.5 up to M8.1 for magnitude bin of 0.1 units. Our final model was composed by two different models, merged in one ensemble model, each one with the same weight: the first one was realized by a smoothed seismicity approach, the second one using the seismogenic faults. The spatial smoothed seismicity was obtained using the smoothing method introduced by Frankel (1995) applied to the historical and instrumental seismicity. In this approach we adopted a tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b-value fixed to 1 and a corner magnitude estimated with the bigger events in the catalogs. For each seismogenic fault provided by the Database of the Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), we computed the annual rate (for each cells of 0.1°x0.1°) for magnitude bin of 0.1 units, assuming that the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault are distributed according to the same tapered Gutenberg-Richter relation of the smoothed seismicity model. The annual rate for the final model was determined in the following way: if the cell falls within one of the seismic sources, we merge the respective value of rate determined by the seismic moments of the earthquakes generated by each fault and the value of the smoothed seismicity model with the same weight; if instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the rate obtained from the spatial smoothed seismicity. Here we present the final results of our study to be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map.

Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akinci, A.; Galadini, F.; Pantosti, D.; Petersen, M.; Malagnini, L.; Perkins, D.

2009-01-01

We produce probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments for the central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian passage time recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, ?? of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation.

Seismic Retrofit for Electric Power Systems

DOE PAGES

Romero, Natalia; Nozick, Linda K.; Dobson, Ian; ...

2015-05-01

Our paper develops a two-stage stochastic program and solution procedure to optimize the selection of seismic retrofit strategies to increase the resilience of electric power systems against earthquake hazards. The model explicitly considers the range of earthquake events that are possible and, for each, an approximation of the distribution of damage experienced. Furthermore, this is important because electric power systems are spatially distributed and so their performance is driven by the distribution of component damage. We also test this solution procedure against the nonlinear integer solver in LINGO 13 and apply the formulation and solution strategy to the Eastern Interconnection,more » where seismic hazard stems from the New Madrid seismic zone.« less

Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities in the Turan block (Central Asia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.-H.; Manby, G. M.

2005-01-01

Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Seismic calibration shots conducted in 2009 in the Imperial Valley, southern California, for the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Janice; Goldman, Mark; Fuis, Gary; Rymer, Michael; Sickler, Robert; Miller, Summer; Butcher, Lesley; Ricketts, Jason; Criley, Coyn; Stock, Joann; Hole, John; Chavez, Greg

2011-01-01

Rupture of the southern section of the San Andreas Fault, from the Coachella Valley to the Mojave Desert, is believed to be the greatest natural hazard facing California in the near future. With an estimated magnitude between 7.2 and 8.1, such an event would result in violent shaking, loss of life, and disruption of lifelines (freeways, aqueducts, power, petroleum, and communication lines) that would bring much of southern California to a standstill. As part of the Nation's efforts to prevent a catastrophe of this magnitude, a number of projects are underway to increase our knowledge of Earth processes in the area and to mitigate the effects of such an event. One such project is the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), which is a collaborative venture between the United States Geological Survey (USGS), California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). This project will generate and record seismic waves that travel through the crust and upper mantle of the Salton Trough. With these data, we will construct seismic images of the subsurface, both reflection and tomographic images. These images will contribute to the earthquake-hazard assessment in southern California by helping to constrain fault locations, sedimentary basin thickness and geometry, and sedimentary seismic velocity distributions. Data acquisition is currently scheduled for winter and spring of 2011. The design and goals of SSIP resemble those of the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE) of the 1990's. LARSE focused on examining the San Andreas Fault system and associated thrust-fault systems of the Transverse Ranges. LARSE was successful in constraining the geometry of the San Andreas Fault at depth and in relating this geometry to mid-crustal, flower-structure-like decollements in the Transverse Ranges that splay upward into the network of hazardous thrust faults that caused the 1971 M 6.7 San Fernando and 1987 M 5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquakes. The project also succeeded in determining the depths and seismic-velocity distributions of several sedimentary basins, including the Los Angeles Basin, San Fernando Valley, and Antelope Valley. These results advanced our ability to understand and assess earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region. In order to facilitate permitting and planning for the data collection phase of SSIP, in June of 2009 we set off calibration shots and recorded the seismic data with a variety of instruments at varying distances. We also exposed sections of buried clay drainage pipe near the shot points to determine the effect of seismic energy on the pipes. Clay drainage pipes are used by the irrigation districts in both the Coachella and Imperial Valleys to prevent ponding and remove salts and irrigation water. This report chronicles the calibration project. We present new near-source velocity data that are used to test the regression curves that were determined for the LARSE project. These curves are used to create setback tables to determine explosive charge size and for placement of shot points. We also found that our shots did not damage the irrigation pipes and that the ODEX drilling system did well in the clay rich soils of the Imperial Valley.

Seismic Monitoring of Permafrost During Controlled Thaw: An Active-Source Experiment Using a Surface Orbital Vibrator and Fiber-Optic DAS Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, S.; Wood, T.; Lindsey, N.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Freifeld, B. M.; Gelvin, A.; Morales, A.; Saari, S.; Ekblaw, I.; Wagner, A. M.; Daley, T. M.; Robertson, M.; Martin, E. R.; Ulrich, C.; Bjella, K.

2016-12-01

Thawing of permafrost can cause ground deformations that threaten the integrity of civil infrastructure. It is essential to develop early warning systems that can identify critically warmed permafrost and issue warnings for hazard prevention and control. Seismic methods can play a pivotal role in such systems for at least two reasons: First, seismic velocities are indicative of mechanical strength of the subsurface and thus are directly relevant to engineering properties; Second, seismic velocities in permafrost systems are sensitive to pre-thaw warming, which makes it possible to issue early warnings before the occurrence of hazardous subsidence events. However, several questions remain: What are the seismic signatures that can be effectively used for early warning of permafrost thaw? Can seismic methods provide enough warning times for hazard prevention and control? In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using permanently installed seismic networks for early warnings of permafrost thaw. We conducted continuous active-source seismic monitoring of permafrost that was under controlled heating at CRREL's Fairbanks permafrost experiment station. We used a permanently installed surface orbital vibrator (SOV) as source and surface-trenched DAS arrays as receivers. The SOV is characterized by its excellent repeatability, automated operation, high energy level, and the rich frequency content (10-100 Hz) of the generated wavefields. The fiber-optic DAS arrays allow continuous recording of seismic data with dense spatial sampling (1-meter channel spacing), low cost, and low maintenance. This combination of SOV-DAS provides unique seismic datasets for observing time-lapse changes of warming permafrost at the field scale, hence providing an observational basis for design and development of early warning systems for permafrost thaw.

Impacts of potential seismic landslides on lifeline corridors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-02-01

This report presents a fully probabilistic method for regional seismically induced landslide hazard analysis and : mapping. The method considers the most current predictions for strong ground motions and seismic sources : through use of the U.S.G.S. ...

Probabilistic properties of injection induced seismicity - implications for the seismic hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasocki, Stanislaw; Urban, Pawel; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Martinez-Garzón, Particia

2017-04-01

Injection induced seismicity (IIS) is an undesired dynamic rockmass response to massive fluid injections. This includes reactions, among others, to hydro-fracturing for shale gas exploitation. Complexity and changeability of technological factors that induce IIS, may result in significant deviations of the observed distributions of seismic process parameters from the models, which perform well in natural, tectonic seismic processes. Classic formulations of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in natural seismicity assume the seismic marked point process to be a stationary Poisson process, whose marks - magnitudes are governed by a Gutenberg-Richter born exponential distribution. It is well known that the use of an inappropriate earthquake occurrence model and/or an inappropriate of magnitude distribution model leads to significant systematic errors of hazard estimates. It is therefore of paramount importance to check whether the mentioned, commonly used in natural seismicity assumptions on the seismic process, can be safely used in IIS hazard problems or not. Seismicity accompanying shale gas operations is widely studied in the framework of the project "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" (SHEER). Here we present results of SHEER project investigations of such seismicity from Oklahoma and of a proxy of such seismicity - IIS data from The Geysers geothermal field. We attempt to answer to the following questions: • Do IIS earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law, so that the magnitude distribution can be modelled by an exponential distribution? • Is the occurrence process of IIS earthquakes Poissonian? Is it segmentally Poissonian? If yes, how are these segments linked to cycles of technological operations? Statistical tests indicate that the Gutenberg-Richter relation born exponential distribution model for magnitude is, in general, inappropriate. The magnitude distribution can be complex, multimodal, with no ready-to-use functional model. In this connection, we recommend to use in hazard analyses non-parametric, kernel estimators of magnitude distribution. The earthquake occurrence process of IIS is not a Poisson process. When earthquakes' occurrences are influenced by a multitude of inducing factors, the interevent time distribution can be modelled by the Weibull distribution supporting a negative ageing property of the process. When earthquake occurrences are due to a specific injection activity, the earthquake rate directly depends on the injection rate and responds immediately to the changes of the injection rate. Furthermore, this response is not limited only to correlated variations of the seismic activity but it also concerns significant changes of the shape of interevent time distribution. Unlike the event rate, the shape of magnitude distribution does not exhibit correlation with the injection rate. This work was supported within SHEER: "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" project funded from Horizon 2020 - R&I Framework Programme, call H2020-LCE 16-2014-1 and within statutory activities No3841/E-41/S/2016 of Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Konecny, Pavel; Lednicka, Marketa; Bednárik, Martin; Brimich, Ladislav

2015-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, but infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Furthermore, seismic hazard is only one of the many hazards facing society. Societal means need to be distributed in a reasonable manner - to assure that all of these hazards (natural as well as societal) are addressed appropriately. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test PSHA models is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occuring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle - if that exists. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site, namely that of a particularly sensitive infrastructure. Such a request may seem hopeless - but it is not. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on case studies in Austria, which has moderate seismicity, but a well-documented history of major earthquake-induced damage, e.g., Villach in 1348 and 1690, Vienna in 1590, Leoben in 1794, and Innsbruck in 1551, 1572, and 1589. Seismic intensities have reached levels up to 10. It is clearly important to know which "worst-case" damages to expect. We have identified sets of particularly sensitive stalagmites in the general vicinity of two major cities in Austria (Vienna and Graz). Non-destructive in-situ measurements have been performed for these and other caves in Austria and Slovakia, in order to determine the horizontal ground accelerations that would result in failure of these stalagmites. These specially-shaped intact stalagmites allow estimating the upper limit on horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by paleoearthquakes. Such information can help make the right strategic decisions.

Seismic Sources for the Territory of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.

2011-12-01

The southern Caucasus is an earthquake prone region where devastating earthquakes have repeatedly caused significant loss of lives, infrastructure and buildings. High geodynamic activity of the region expressed in both seismic and aseismic deformations, is conditioned by the still-ongoing convergence of lithospheric plates and northward propagation of the Afro-Arabian continental block at a rate of several cm/year. The geometry of tectonic deformations in the region is largely determined by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block intensively intended into the relatively mobile Middle East-Caucasian region. Georgia is partner of ongoing regional project EMME. The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. Seismic sources can be either faults or area sources. Seismoactive structures of Georgia are identified mainly on the basis of the correlation between neotectonic structures of the region and earthquakes. Requirements of modern PSH software to geometry of faults is very high. As our knowledge of active faults geometry is not sufficient, area sources were used. Seismic sources are defined as zones that are characterized with more or less uniform seismicity. Poor knowledge of the processes occurring in deep of the Earth is connected with complexity of direct measurement. From this point of view the reliable data obtained from earthquake fault plane solution is unique for understanding the character of a current tectonic life of investigated area. There are two methods of identification if seismic sources. The first is the seimsotectonic approach, based on identification of extensive homogeneous seismic sources (SS) with the definition of probability of occurrence of maximum earthquake Mmax. In the second method the identification of seismic sources will be obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. This last approach was used by us. For achievement of this purpose it was necessary to solve following problems: to calculate the parameters of seismotectonic deformation; to reveal regularities in character of earthquake fault plane solution; use obtained regularities to develop principles of an establishment of borders between various hierarchical and scale levels of seismic deformations fields and to give their geological interpretation; Three dimensional matching of active faults with real geometrical dimension and earthquake sources have been investigated. Finally each zone have been defined with the parameters: the geometry, the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes

Continuous micro-earthquake catalogue of the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailos, Konstantinos; Townend, John; Savage, Martha; Chamberlain, Calum

2017-04-01

The Alpine Fault is one of the most prominent tectonic features in the South Island, New Zealand, and is inferred to be late in its seismic cycle of M 8 earthquakes based on paleoseismological evidence. Despite this, the Alpine Fault displays low levels of contemporary seismic activity, with little documented on-fault seismicity. This low magnitude seismicity, often below the completeness level of the GeoNet national seismic catalogue, may inform us of changes in fault character along-strike and might be used for rupture simulations and hazard planning. Thus, compiling a micro-earthquake catalogue for the Southern Alps prior to an expected major earthquake is of great interest. Areas of low seismic activity, like the central part of the Alpine Fault, require data recorded over a long duration to reveal temporal and spatial seismicity patterns and provide a better understanding for the processes controlling seismogenesis. The continuity and density of the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA; deployed in late 2008) allows us to study seismicity in the Southern Alps over a more extended time period than has ever been done previously. Furthermore, by using data from other temporary networks (e.g. WIZARD, ALFA08, DFDP-10) we are able to extend the region covered. To generate a spatially and temporally continuous catalogue of seismicity in New Zealand's central Southern Alps, we used automatic detection and phase-picking methods. We used an automatic phase-picking method for both P- and S- wave arrivals (kPick; Rawles and Thurber, 2015). Using almost 8 years of seismic data we calculated about 9,000 preliminary earthquake. The seismicity is clustered and scattered and a previously observed seismic gap between the Wanganui and Whataroa rivers is also identified.

Microseismic monitoring: a tool for reservoir characterization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, S. A.

2011-12-01

Characterization of fluid-transport properties of rocks is one of the most important, yet one of most challenging goals of reservoir geophysics. There are some fundamental difficulties related to using active seismic methods for estimating fluid mobility. However, it would be very attractive to have a possibility of exploring hydraulic properties of rocks using seismic methods because of their large penetration range and their high resolution. Microseismic monitoring of borehole fluid injections is exactly the tool to provide us with such a possibility. Stimulation of rocks by fluid injections belong to a standard development practice of hydrocarbon and geothermal reservoirs. Production of shale gas and of heavy oil, CO2 sequestrations, enhanced recovery of oil and of geothermal energy are branches that require broad applications of this technology. The fact that fluid injection causes seismicity has been well-established for several decades. Observations and data analyzes show that seismicity is triggered by different processes ranging from linear pore pressure diffusion to non-linear fluid impact onto rocks leading to their hydraulic fracturing and strong changes of their structure and permeability. Understanding and monitoring of fluid-induced seismicity is necessary for hydraulic characterization of reservoirs, for assessments of reservoir stimulation and for controlling related seismic hazard. This presentation provides an overview of several theoretical, numerical, laboratory and field studies of fluid-induced microseismicity, and it gives an introduction into the principles of seismicity-based reservoir characterization.

Geophysics in Mejillones Basin, Chile: Dynamic analysis and associatedseismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maringue, J. I.; Yanez, G. A.; Lira, E.; Podestá, L., Sr.; Figueroa, R.; Estay, N. P.; Saez, E.

2016-12-01

The active margin of South America has a high seismogenic potential. In particular, the Mejillones peninsula, located in northern Chile, represents a site of interest for seismic hazard due to 100-year seismic gap, the potentially large site effects, and the presence of the most important port in the region. We perform a dynamic analysis of the zone from a spatial and petrophysical model of the Mejillones Basin, to understand its behavior under realistic seismic scenarios. Geometry and petrophysics of the basin were obtained from an integrated modeling of geophysics observations (gravity, seismic and electromagnetic data) distributed mainly in Pampa Mejillones whose western edge is limited by Mejillones Fault, oriented north-south. This regional-scale normal fault shows a half-graben geometry which controls the development of the Mejillones basin eastwards. The gravimetric and magnetotelluric methods allow to define the geometry of the basin, through a cover/basement density contrast, and the transition zone from very low-moderate electrical resistivities, respectively. The seismic method complements the petrophysics in terms of the shear wave depth profile. The results show soil's thicknesses up to 700 meters on deeper zone, with steeper slopes to the west and lower slopes to the east, in agreement with the normal-fault-half-graben basin geometry. Along the N-S direction there are not great differences in basin depth, comprising an almost 2D problem. In terms of petrophysics, the sedimentary stratum is characterized by shear velocities between 300-700 m/s, extremely low electrical resistivities, below 1 ohm-m, and densities from 1.4 to 1.8 gr/cc. The numerical simulation of the seismic waves amplification gives values in the order of 0.8g, which implying large surface damages. The results demonstrate a potential risk in Mejillones bay to future events, therefore is very important to generate mitigations policies for infrastructure and human settlements.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for conducting rapid vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings. With modification of input structural parameters, it can be adapted and applied to any other building class. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic vulnerability modelling is conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of the input parameters. The proposed methodology was validated for a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of existing buildings in Old Quebec City. The procedure for hazard compatible vulnerability modelling was used to develop seismic fragility functions in terms of spectral acceleration representative of the inventoried buildings. A total of 1220 buildings were considered. The assessment was performed for a scenario event of magnitude 6.2 at distance 15km with a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years. The study showed that most of the expected damage is concentrated in the old brick and stone masonry buildings.

The Changing Role of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory within the Volcanological Community through its 100 year history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauahikaua, J. P.; Poland, M. P.

2011-12-01

When Thomas Jaggar, Jr., founded the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1912, he wanted to "keep and publish careful records, invite the whole world of science to co-operate, and interest the business man." After studying the disastrous volcanic eruption at Martinique and Naples and the destructive earthquakes at Messina and the Caribbean Ocean, he saw observatories with these goals as a way to understand and mitigate these hazards. Owing to frequent eruptions, ease of access, and continuous record of activity (since January 17, 1912), Kilauea Volcano has been the focus for volcanological study by government, academic, and international investigators. New volcano monitoring techniques have been developed and tested on Hawaiian volcanoes and exported worldwide. HVO has served as a training ground for several generations of volcanologists; many have contributed to volcano research and hazards mitigation around the world. In the coming years, HVO and the scientific community will benefit from recent upgrades in our monitoring network. HVO had the first regional seismic network in the US and it will be fully digital; continuous GPS, tilt, gravity, and strain data already complement the seismic data; an array of infrared and visual cameras simultaneously track geologic surface changes. Scientifically, HVO scientists and their colleagues are making great advances in understanding explosive basaltic eruptions, volcanic gas emission and dispersion and its hazards, and lava flow mechanics with these advanced instruments. Activity at Hawaiian volcanoes continues to provide unparalleled opportunities for research and education, made all the more valuable by HVO's scientific legacy.

First USGS urban seismic hazard maps predict the effects of soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Gomberg, J.S.; Schweig, E.S.; Waldron, B.A.; Tucker, K.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase 1.0 s probabilistic ground motions by ???100%. Probabilistic peak ground accelerations remain at levels similar to the national maps, although the ground motion gradient across Shelby County is reduced and ground motions are more uniform within the county. The M7.7 scenario maps show ground motions similar to the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic maps. As an effect of local geology, both M7.7 and M6.2 scenario maps show a more uniform seismic ground-motion hazard across Shelby County than scenario maps with constant site conditions (i.e., NEHRP B/C boundary).

A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, A.; Posadas, A. M.

2006-09-01

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25-50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.

Seismic hazard along a crude oil pipeline in the event of an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, H.H.M.; Chen, C.H.S.

1990-04-16

An assessment of the seismic hazard that exists along the major crude oil pipeline running through the New Madrid seismic zone from southeastern Louisiana to Patoka, Illinois is examined in the report. An 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake with moment magnitude 8.2 is assumed to occur at three locations where large historical earthquakes have occurred. Six pipeline crossings of the major rivers in West Tennessee are chosen as the sites for hazard evaluation because of the liquefaction potential at these sites. A seismologically-based model is used to predict the bedrock accelerations. Uncertainties in three model parameters, i.e., stress parameter, cutoffmore » frequency, and strong-motion duration are included in the analysis. Each parameter is represented by three typical values. From the combination of these typical values, a total of 27 earthquake time histories can be generated for each selected site due to an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake occurring at a postulated seismic source.« less

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. The work is supported from PNII/PCCA 2013 Project DARING 69/2014, financed by UEFISCDI, Romania. Bureau GJ (2003) "Dams and appurtenant facilities" Earthquake Engineering Handbook, CRS Press, WF Chen, and C Scawthorn (eds.), Boca Raton, pp. 26.1-26.47. Bureau GJ and Ballentine GD (2002) "A comprehensive seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the State of Carolina using HAZUS. Part IV: Dam inventory and vulnerability assessment methodology", 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July 21-25, Boston, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA. Moldovan IA, Popescu E, Constantin A (2008), "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Romania: application for crustal seismic active zones", Romanian Journal of Physics, Vol.53, Nos. 3-4

Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Wiemer, S.; Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Naylor, M.; Zhuang, J.; Steacy, S.; Corssa Executive Committee

2010-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the testing of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology - especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy - statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA). CORSSA is a web-based educational platform that is authoritative, up-to-date, prominent, and user-friendly. We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each containing between four and eight articles. The CORSSA web page, www.corssa.org, officially unveiled on September 6, 2010, debuts with an initial set of approximately 10 to 15 articles available online for viewing and commenting with additional articles to be added over the coming months. Each article will be peer-reviewed and will present a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles will include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. A special article will compare and review available statistical seismology software packages.

Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

2010-05-01

Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on scenarios was guided by the perception that usable and realistic (also in the sense of being compatible with seismic histories of cities that are several centuries long) ground motion maps had to be produced for urban areas. By deterministic scenario it is mean a representation of the severity of ground shaking over an urban area, using one or more hazard descriptors. Such representation can be obtained: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" specified by a magnitude or an epicentral intensity, associated to a particular earthquake source - or, directly, showing values of local macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquakes of the past. In the study we chose for the second method using the values of macroseimic intensity caused by damaging historical earthquakes (the 1928 quakes in southern Bulgaria; the 1940 and the 1977 Vrancea intermediate earthquakes) - lessons from the past. Such scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Thermal state of the Explorer segment of the Cascadia subduction zone: Implications for seismic and tsunami hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Dawei; Wang, Kelin; Davis, Earl E.; Jiang, Yan; Insua, Tania L.; He, Jiangheng

2017-04-01

The Explorer segment of northernmost Cascadia is an end-member "warm" subduction zone with very young incoming plate and slow-convergence rate. Understanding the megathrust earthquake potential of this type of subduction zone is of both geodynamic and societal importance. Available geodetic observations indicate that the subduction megathrust of the Explorer segment is currently locked to some degree, but the downdip extent of the fault area that is potentially seismogenic is not known. Here we construct finite-element models to estimate the thermally allowed megathrust seismogenic zone, using available knowledge of regional plate kinematics, structural data, and heat flow observations as constraints. Despite ambiguities in plate interface geometry constrained by hypocenter locations of low-frequency earthquakes beneath Vancouver Island, the thermal models suggest a potential rupture zone of ˜60 km downdip width located fully offshore. Using dislocation modeling, we further illustrate that a rupture zone of this size, even with a conservative assumption of ˜100 km strike length, can cause significant tsunami-genic deformation. Future seismic and tsunami hazard assessment in northern Cascadia must take the Explorer segment into account.

Seismic Hazard Maps for the Maltese Archipelago: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Galea, P. M.

2013-12-01

The Maltese islands form an archipelago of three major islands lying in the Sicily channel at about 140 km south of Sicily and 300 km north of Libya. So far very few investigations have been carried out on seismicity around the Maltese islands and no maps of seismic hazard for the archipelago are available. Assessing the seismic hazard for the region is currently of prime interest for the near-future development of industrial and touristic facilities as well as for urban expansion. A culture of seismic risk awareness has never really been developed in the country, and the public perception is that the islands are relatively safe, and that any earthquake phenomena are mild and infrequent. However, the Archipelago has been struck by several moderate/large events. Although recent constructions of a certain structural and strategic importance have been built according to high engineering standards, the same probably cannot be said for all residential buildings, many higher than 3 storeys, which have mushroomed rapidly in recent years. Such buildings are mostly of unreinforced masonry, with heavy concrete floor slabs, which are known to be highly vulnerable to even moderate ground shaking. We can surely state that in this context planning and design should be based on available national hazard maps. Unfortunately, these kinds of maps are not available for the Maltese islands. In this paper we attempt to compute a first and preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Maltese islands in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at different periods. Seismic hazard has been computed using the Esteva-Cornell (1968) approach which is the most widely utilized probabilistic method. It is a zone-dependent approach: seismotectonic and geological data are used coupled with earthquake catalogues to identify seismogenic zones within which earthquakes occur at certain rates. Therefore the earthquake catalogues can be reduced to the activity rate, the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and an estimate of the maximum magnitude. In this article we also defined a new seismogenic zones in the central Mediterranean never considered before. In order to determine the ground motion parameters related to a specified probability of exceedance, the above statistical parameters are combined with ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard computations have been performed within the island boundaries. The preliminary maps for PGA distribution on rock site obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance shows values ranging between 0.09-0.18 g whereas, SA for 0.2, 04, 1.0 s show values of about 0.21-0.40 g, 0.14-0.24 g and 0.05-0.08 g respectively.

Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

2016-04-01

The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the probability for occurrence of future earthquakes with a defined area distribution of their seismic intensity, depending on the natural characteristics of the terrain. The period of 10.000 years represents the greatest expected seismic threat for the considered area. From the aspect of low-cost construction, it is also necessary to know the seismicity in shorter time periods, as well. Therefore, maps for return time periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years have also been elaborated. The maps show a probability of 63% for occurrence of expected earthquakes with maximum intensities expressed on the MCS scale. The map has been elaborated to the scale of 1: 1.000.000, while the obtained isolines of seismic intensity are drawn with an error of  5 km. The seismic hazard map of R. Macedonia is used for: • The needs of the Rulebook on Technical Norms on Construction of Structures in Seismic Areas and for the needs of physical and urban planning and design. • While defining the seismic design parameters for construction of structures in zones with intensity of I  VII degrees MSK, investigations should be done for detailed seismic zoning and microzoning of the terrain of these zones in compliance with the technical regulations for construction in seismically prone areas. • The areas on the map indicated by intensity X MCS are not regulated by the valid regulations. Therefore, in practice, these should be treated as such in which it is not possible to construct any structures without previous surveys. • Revision of this map is done at a five year period, i.e., after each occurred earthquake whose parameters are such that require modifications and amendments of the map.

Italian Case Studies Modelling Complex Earthquake Sources In PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gee, Robin; Peruzza, Laura; Pagani, Marco

2017-04-01

This study presents two examples of modelling complex seismic sources in Italy, done in the framework of regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The first case study is for an area centred around Collalto Stoccaggio, a natural gas storage facility in Northern Italy, located within a system of potentially seismogenic thrust faults in the Venetian Plain. The storage exploits a depleted natural gas reservoir located within an actively growing anticline, which is likely driven by the Montello Fault, the underlying blind thrust. This fault has been well identified by microseismic activity (M<2) detected by a local seismometric network installed in 2012 (http://rete-collalto.crs.inogs.it/). At this time, no correlation can be identified between the gas storage activity and local seismicity, so we proceed with a PSHA that considers only natural seismicity, where the rates of earthquakes are assumed to be time-independent. The source model consists of faults and distributed seismicity to consider earthquakes that cannot be associated to specific structures. All potentially active faults within 50 km of the site are considered, and are modelled as 3D listric surfaces, consistent with the proposed geometry of the Montello Fault. Slip rates are constrained using available geological, geophysical and seismological information. We explore the sensitivity of the hazard results to various parameters affected by epistemic uncertainty, such as ground motions prediction equations with different rupture-to-site distance metrics, fault geometry, and maximum magnitude. The second case is an innovative study, where we perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (APSHA) in Central Italy, following the Amatrice M6.1 earthquake of August 24th, 2016 (298 casualties) and the subsequent earthquakes of Oct 26th and 30th (M6.1 and M6.6 respectively, no deaths). The aftershock hazard is modelled using a fault source with complex geometry, based on literature data and field evidence associated with the August mainshock. Earthquake activity rates during the very first weeks after the deadly earthquake were used to calibrated an Omori-Utsu decay curve, and the magnitude distribution of aftershocks is assumed to follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. We apply uniform and non-uniform spatial distribution of the seismicity across the fault source, by modulating the rates as a decreasing function of distance from the mainshock. The hazard results are computed for short-exposure periods (1 month, before the occurrences of October earthquakes) and compared to the background hazard given by law (MPS04), and to observations at some reference sites. We also show the results of disaggregation computed for the city of Amatrice. Finally, we attempt to update the results in light of the new "main" events that occurred afterwards in the region. All source modeling and hazard calculations are performed using the OpenQuake engine. We discuss the novelties of these works, and the benefits and limitations of both analyses, particularly in such different contexts of seismic hazard.

Study of Seismic Hazards in the Center of the State of Veracruz, MÉXICO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Morales, G. F.; Leonardo Suárez, M.; Dávalos Sotelo, R.; Mora González, I.; Castillo Aguilar, S.

2015-12-01

Preliminary results obtained from the project "Microzonation of geological and hydrometeorological hazards for conurbations of Orizaba, Veracruz, and major sites located in the lower sub-basins: The Antigua and Jamapa" are presented. These project was supported by the Joint Funds CONACyT-Veracruz state government. It was developed a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (henceforth PSHA) in the central area of Veracruz State, mainly in a region bounded by the watersheds of the rivers Jamapa and Antigua, whit the aim to evaluate the geological and hydrometeorological hazards in this region. The project pays most attention to extreme weather phenomena, floods and earthquakes, in order to calculate the risk induced by previous for landslides and rock falls. In addition, as part of the study, the PSHA was developed considered the site effect in the urban zones of the cities Xalapa and Orizaba; the site effects were incorporated by a standard format proposed in studies of microzonation and its application in computer systems, which allows to optimize and condense microzonation studies in a city. The results obtained from the PSHA are presented through to seismic hazard maps (hazard footprints), exceedance rate curves and uniform hazard spectrum for different spectral ordinates, between 0.01 and 5.0 seconds, associated to selected return periods: 72, 225, 475 and 2475 years.

Recent Seismicity in Texas and Research Design and Progress of the TexNet-CISR Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennings, P.; Savvaidis, A.; Rathje, E.; Olson, J. E.; DeShon, H. R.; Datta-Gupta, A.; Eichhubl, P.; Nicot, J. P.; Kahlor, L. A.

2017-12-01

The recent increase in the rate of seismicity in Texas has prompted the establishment of an interdisciplinary, interinstitutional collaboration led by the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology which includes the TexNet Seismic Monitoring and Research project as funded by The State of Texas (roughly 2/3rds of our funding) and the industry-funded Center for Integrated Seismicity Research (CISR) (1/3 of funding). TexNet is monitoring and cataloging seismicity across Texas using a new backbone seismic network, investigating site-specific earthquake sequences by deploying temporary seismic monitoring stations, and conducting reservoir modeling studies. CISR expands TexNet research into the interdisciplinary realm to more thoroughly study the factors that contribute to seismicity, characterize the associated hazard and risk, develop strategies for mitigation and management, and develop methods of effective communication for all stakeholders. The TexNet-CISR research portfolio has 6 themes: seismicity monitoring, seismology, geologic and hydrologic description, geomechanics and reservoir modeling, seismic hazard and risk assessment, and seismic risk social science. Twenty+ specific research projects span and connect these themes. We will provide a synopsis of research progress including recent seismicity trends in Texas; Fort Worth Basin integrated studies including geological modeling and fault characterization, fluid injection data syntheses, and reservoir and geomechanical modeling; regional ground shaking characterization and mapping, infrastructure vulnerability assessment; and social science topics of public perception and information seeking behavior.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the two layer fault system of Antalya (SW Turkey) area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dipova, Nihat; Cangir, Bülent

2017-09-01

Southwest Turkey, along Mediterranean coast, is prone to large earthquakes resulting from subduction of the African plate under the Eurasian plate and shallow crustal faults. Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw = 6.5 whereas that of crustal earthquakes is Mw = 6.6. Crustal earthquakes are sourced from faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. The primary goal of this study is to assess seismic hazard for Antalya area (SW Turkey) using a probabilistic approach. A new earthquake catalog for Antalya area, with unified moment magnitude scale, was prepared in the scope of the study. Seismicity of the area has been evaluated by the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. For hazard computation, CRISIS2007 software was used following the standard Cornell-McGuire methodology. Attenuation model developed by Youngs et al. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):58-73, (1997) was used for deep subduction earthquakes and Chiou and Youngs Earthq Spectra 24(1):173-215, (2008) model was used for shallow crustal earthquakes. A seismic hazard map was developed for peak ground acceleration and for rock ground with a hazard level of a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Results of the study show that peak ground acceleration values on bedrock change between 0.215 and 0.23 g in the center of Antalya.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shama, Ayman A.

2011-03-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király-Proag, Eszter; Zechar, J. Douglas; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Doetsch, Joseph

2016-08-01

Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics-based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut-in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut-in. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in.

Fault Mechanics and Post-seismic Deformation at Bam, SE Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimpenny, S. E.; Copley, A.

2017-12-01

The extent to which aseismic deformation relaxes co-seismic stress changes on a fault zone is fundamental to assessing the future seismic hazard following any earthquake, and in understanding the mechanical behaviour of faults. We used models of stress-driven afterslip and visco-elastic relaxation, in conjunction with a dense time series of post-seismic InSAR measurements, to show that there has been minimal release of co-seismic stress changes through post-seismic deformation following the 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam earthquake. Our modelling indicates that the faults at Bam may remain predominantly locked, and that the co- plus inter-seismically accumulated elastic strain stored down-dip of the 2003 rupture patch may be released in a future Mw 6 earthquake. Modelling also suggests parts of the fault that experienced post-seismic creep between 2003-2009 overlapped with areas that also slipped co-seismically. Our observations and models also provide an opportunity to probe how aseismic fault slip leads to the growth of topography at Bam. We find that, for our modelled afterslip distribution to be consistent with forming the sharp step in the local topography at Bam over repeated earthquake cycles, and also to be consistent with the geodetic observations, requires either (1) far-field tectonic loading equivalent to a 2-10 MPa deviatoric stress acting across the fault system, which suggests it supports stresses 60-100 times less than classical views of static fault strength, or (2) that the fault surface has some form of mechanical anisotropy, potentially related to corrugations on the fault plane, that controls the sense of slip.

Dike propagation energy balance from deformation modeling and seismic release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, Alessandro; Aoki, Yosuke; Rivalta, Eleonora

2017-06-01

Magma is transported in the crust mainly by dike intrusions. In volcanic areas, dikes can ascend toward the free surface and also move by lateral propagation, eventually feeding flank eruptions. Understanding dike mechanics is a key to forecasting the expected propagation and associated hazard. Several studies have been conducted on dike mechanisms and propagation; however, a less in-depth investigated aspect is the relation between measured dike-induced deformation and the seismicity released during its propagation. We individuated a simple x that can be used as a proxy of the expected mechanical energy released by a propagating dike and is related to its average thickness. For several intrusions around the world (Afar, Japan, and Mount Etna), we correlate such mechanical energy to the seismic moment released by the induced earthquakes. We obtain an empirical law that quantifies the expected seismic energy released before arrest. The proposed approach may be helpful to predict the total seismic moment that will be released by an intrusion and thus to control the energy status during its propagation and the time of dike arrest.