Design rainfall depth estimation through two regional frequency analysis methods in Hanjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yue-Ping; Yu, Chaofeng; Zhang, Xujie; Zhang, Qingqing; Xu, Xiao

2012-02-01

Hydrological predictions in ungauged basins are of significant importance for water resources management. In hydrological frequency analysis, regional methods are regarded as useful tools in estimating design rainfall/flood for areas with only little data available. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of two regional methods, namely the Hosking's approach and the cokriging approach, in hydrological frequency analysis. These two methods are employed to estimate 24-h design rainfall depths in Hanjiang River Basin, one of the largest tributaries of Yangtze River, China. Validation is made through comparing the results to those calculated from the provincial handbook approach which uses hundreds of rainfall gauge stations. Also for validation purpose, five hypothetically ungauged sites from the middle basin are chosen. The final results show that compared to the provincial handbook approach, the Hosking's approach often overestimated the 24-h design rainfall depths while the cokriging approach most of the time underestimated. Overall, the Hosking' approach produced more accurate results than the cokriging approach.

Improving Water Balance Estimation in the Nile by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling: a Template for Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleason, C. J.; Wada, Y.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally, especially in international river basins. Remote sensing and water balance modelling are frequently cited as a potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on the same in decline gauge data to constrain or parameterize discharge estimates, thus creating a circular approach to estimating discharge inapplicable to ungauged basins. To address this, we here combine a discontinued gauge, remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at-many-stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and Landsat data, and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge for an ungauged time period for the Lower Nile (1978-present). Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 86 Landsat images and AMHG (1984-2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the hydrologic model. Our tuning methodology is purposefully simple and can be easily applied to any model without the need for calibration/parameterization. The resulting tuned modelled hydrograph shows large improvement in flow magnitude over previous modelled hydrographs, and validation of tuned monthly model output flows against the historical gauge yields an RMSE of 343 m3/s (33.7%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order-of-magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: modelled flows have a one-to two-month wet season lag and a negative bias. More sophisticated model calibration and training (e.g. data assimilation) is needed to improve upon our results, however, our results achieved by coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modelling of ungauged flows. This is especially true as massive cloud computing via Google Earth Engine makes our method easily applicable to any basin without current gauges. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

Towards hydrochemical PUB - stable vs. heterogeneous NO3 and COD signatures across hydrographic structure and size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecrepont, Stephane; Cudennec, Christophe; Jaffrezic, Anne; de Lavenne, Alban

2017-04-01

Towards hydrochemical PUB - stable vs. heterogeneous NO3 and DOC signatures across hydrographic structure and size Ecrepont, S.1Cudennec, C.1 Jaffrézic, A.1 de Lavenne, A.2 1UMR SAS, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France 2 HBAN, Irstea, Antony, France Intensive agriculture is a major disturbing factor for water quality in Brittany, France. Observations of chemical data from 350 catchments over a 15 year period show that the high variability of hydrochemical dynamics between catchments in relation to geographic characteristics and farming practices, decreases with an increase in the catchment size. A stable signature of nitrate and DOC dynamics does emerge for bigger catchments, and was evidenced statistically. We adapted a modified version of the standard deviation formula to calculate an index on mean inter-annual winter nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to characterize each catchment. The method was applied to the whole sample of catchments, some of them nested, to investigate variation of our new index across scales and regions. Results show an increasing and non-linear relationship between the criterion and the surface, with threshold effects. The stability of the thresholds across river basins in Brittany, and across seasons and years is explored. This emergence relates to the progressive connection of streams with heterogeneous characteristic chemical signatures into a mixing dominant effect. The better assessment of this relationship opens two major perspectives: i) to define a geomorphology-based PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) approach for hydrochemistry; ii) to identify the most critical sub-catchments for mitigating actions in terms of farming and landscape practices towards water quality recovery.

Application of Hydrometeorological Information for Short-term and Long-term Water Resources Management over Ungauged Basin in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ji-in; Ryu, Kyongsik; Suh, Ae-sook

2016-04-01

In 2014, three major governmental organizations that are Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), K-water, and Korea Rural Community Corporation have been established the Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center (HCC) to accomplish more effective water management for scarcely gauged river basins, where data are uncertain or non-consistent. To manage the optimal drought and flood control over the ungauged river, HCC aims to interconnect between weather observations and forecasting information, and hydrological model over sparse regions with limited observations sites in Korean peninsula. In this study, long-term forecasting ensemble models so called Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, provided by KMA was used in order to produce drought outlook. Glosea5 ensemble model prediction provides predicted drought information for 1 and 3 months ahead with drought index including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Also, Global Precipitation Measurement and Global Climate Observation Measurement - Water1 satellites data products are used to estimate rainfall and soil moisture contents over the ungauged region.

Analytical estimation of annual runoff distribution in ungauged seasonally dry basins based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, D.; Deidda, R.; Viola, F.

2017-11-01

The assessment of the mean annual runoff and its interannual variability in a basin is the first and fundamental task for several activities related to water resources management and water quality analysis. The scarcity of observed runoff data is a common problem worldwide so that the runoff estimation in ungauged basins is still an open question. In this context, the main aim of this work is to propose and test a simple tool able to estimate the probability distribution of the annual surface runoff in ungauged river basins in arid and semi-arid areas using a simplified Fu's parameterization of the Budyko's curve at regional scale. Starting from a method recently developed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible inter-annual change in basin water storage, we here generalize the application to any catchment where the parameter of the Fu's curve is known. Specifically, we provide a closed-form expression of the annual runoff distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, and the Fu's parameter. The proposed method is based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation and allows calculating the probability density function of annual runoff in seasonally dry arid and semi-arid geographic context around the world by taking advantage of simple easy-to-find climatic data and the many studies with estimates of the Fu's parameter worldwide. The computational simplicity of the proposed tool makes it a valuable supporting tool in the field of water resources assessment for practitioners, regional agencies and authorities.

An inter-comparison of similarity-based methods for organisation and classification of groundwater hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaf, Ezra; Barthel, Roland

2018-04-01

Classification and similarity based methods, which have recently received major attention in the field of surface water hydrology, namely through the PUB (prediction in ungauged basins) initiative, have not yet been applied to groundwater systems. However, it can be hypothesised, that the principle of "similar systems responding similarly to similar forcing" applies in subsurface hydrology as well. One fundamental prerequisite to test this hypothesis and eventually to apply the principle to make "predictions for ungauged groundwater systems" is efficient methods to quantify the similarity of groundwater system responses, i.e. groundwater hydrographs. In this study, a large, spatially extensive, as well as geologically and geomorphologically diverse dataset from Southern Germany and Western Austria was used, to test and compare a set of 32 grouping methods, which have previously only been used individually in local-scale studies. The resulting groupings are compared to a heuristic visual classification, which serves as a baseline. A performance ranking of these classification methods is carried out and differences in homogeneity of grouping results were shown, whereby selected groups were related to hydrogeological indices and geological descriptors. This exploratory empirical study shows that the choice of grouping method has a large impact on the object distribution within groups, as well as on the homogeneity of patterns captured in groups. The study provides a comprehensive overview of a large number of grouping methods, which can guide researchers when attempting similarity-based groundwater hydrograph classification.

Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, G.

2017-12-01

Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high degree of multicollinearity, possibly illustrating the co-evolution of climatic and physiographic conditions. Given the ineffectiveness of many variables used here, future work should develop new variables that target specific processes associated with percentile flows.

Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, A.; Koussis, A. D.; Koutsoyiannis, D.; Mamassis, N.

2014-06-01

Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from typically few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.

Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

2011-01-01

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Predicting in ungauged basins using a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Olav Peerebom, Ivar; Nilsson, Anna

2015-04-01

Prediction in ungauged basins is a demanding, but necessary test for hydrological model structures. Ideally, the relationship between model parameters and catchment characteristics (CC) should be hydrologically justifiable. Many studies, however, report on failure to obtain significant correlations between model parameters and CCs. Under the hypothesis that the lack of correlations stems from non-identifiability of model parameters caused by overparameterization, the relatively new parameter parsimonious DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model was tested for predictions in ungauged basins in Norway. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than, for example, the well-known Swedish HBV model. In this study, multiple regression equations relating CCs and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p- value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22-0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For 10 of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash-Suthcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1. The median NSE for the regionalised DDD for the 17 catchments, for two different time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt, respectively. This latter result indicates the topic for further improvements in the model structure of DDD.

An Open Source approach to automated hydrological analysis of ungauged drainage basins in Serbia using R and SAGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlatanovic, Nikola; Milovanovic, Irina; Cotric, Jelena

2014-05-01

Drainage basins are for the most part ungauged or poorly gauged not only in Serbia but in most parts of the world, usually due to insufficient funds, but also the decommission of river gauges in upland catchments to focus on downstream areas which are more populated. Very often, design discharges are needed for these streams or rivers where no streamflow data is available, for various applications. Examples include river training works for flood protection measures or erosion control, design of culverts, water supply facilities, small hydropower plants etc. The estimation of discharges in ungauged basins is most often performed using rainfall-runoff models, whose parameters heavily rely on geomorphometric attributes of the basin (e.g. catchment area, elevation, slopes of channels and hillslopes etc.). The calculation of these, as well as other paramaters, is most often done in GIS (Geographic Information System) software environments. This study deals with the application of freely available and open source software and datasets for automating rainfall-runoff analysis of ungauged basins using methodologies currently in use hydrological practice. The R programming language was used for scripting and automating the hydrological calculations, coupled with SAGA GIS (System for Automated Geoscientivic Analysis) for geocomputing functions and terrain analysis. Datasets used in the analyses include the freely available SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) terrain data, CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover data, as well as soil maps and rainfall data. The choice of free and open source software and datasets makes the project ideal for academic and research purposes and cross-platform projects. The geomorphometric module was tested on more than 100 catchments throughout Serbia and compared to manually calculated values (using topographic maps). The discharge estimation module was tested on 21 catchments where data were available and compared to results obtained by frequency analysis of annual maximum discharge. The geomorphometric module of the calculation system showed excellent results, saving a great deal of time that would otherwise have been spent on manual processing of geospatial data. This type of automated analysis presented in this study will enable a much quicker hydrologic analysis on multiple watersheds, providing the platform for further research into spatial variability of runoff.

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

2017-04-01

Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to constrain model uncertainty for an - assumed to be - ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for reconstructing long-term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America, and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

EPA Science Inventory

A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; M. A. Sattar, Ahmed; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2017-02-01

This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, A.; Koussis, A. D.; Koutsoyiannis, D.; Mamassis, N.

2013-12-01

Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches, such as the rational formula and the SCS-CN method combined with the unit hydrograph theory that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chong; Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Chen, Zhongsheng

2018-04-01

To quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow in an ungauged mountainous basin is a difficult and challenging work. In this study, a hybrid model combing downscaling method based on earth data products, back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method was developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the hybrid model, the Kumarik River and Toshkan River, two headwaters of the Aksu River, were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow by using this hybrid model. The conclusion is that the hybrid model presented a good performance, and the quantitative assessment results for the two headwaters are: (1) the precipitation respectively increased by 48.5 and 41.0 mm in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment, and the average annual temperature both increased by 0.1 °C in the two catchments during each decade from 1980 to 2012; (2) with the warming and wetting climate, the streamflow respectively increased 1.5 × 108 and 3.3 × 108 m3 per decade in the Kumarik River and the Toshkan River; and (3) the contribution of the temperature and precipitation to the streamflow, which were 64.01 ± 7.34, 35.99 ± 7.34 and 47.72 ± 8.10, 52.26 ± 8.10%, respectively in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment. Our study introduced a feasible hybrid model for the assessment of the impact of climate variability on streamflow, which can be used in the ungauged mountainous basin of Northwest China.

Discharge Estimation in Ungauged Basins Through Variational Data Assimilation: The Potential of the SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubanas, H.; Gejadze, I.; Malaterre, P.-O.; Durand, M.; Wei, R.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Domeneghetti, A.

2018-03-01

Space-borne instruments can measure river water surface elevation, slope, and width. Remote sensing of river discharge in ungauged basins is far more challenging, however. This work investigates the estimation of river discharge from simulated observations of the forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission using a variant of the classical variational data assimilation method "4D-Var." The variational assimilation scheme simultaneously estimates discharge, river bathymetry, and bed roughness in the context of a 1.5 D full Saint-Venant hydraulic model. Algorithms and procedures are developed to apply the method to fully ungauged basins. The method was tested on the Po and Sacramento Rivers. The SWOT hydrology simulator was used to produce synthetic SWOT observations at each overpass time by simulating the interaction of SWOT radar measurements with the river water surface and nearby land surface topography at a scale of approximately 1 m, thus accounting for layover, thermal noise, and other effects. SWOT data products were synthesized by vectorizing the simulated radar returns, leading to height and width estimates at 200 m increments along the river centerlines. The ingestion of simulated SWOT data generally led to local improvements on prior bathymetry and roughness estimates which allowed the prediction of river discharge at the overpass times with relative root mean squared errors of 12.1% and 11.2% for the Po and Sacramento Rivers, respectively. Nevertheless, equifinality issues that arise from the simultaneous estimation of bed elevation and roughness may prevent their use for different applications, other than discharge estimation through the presented framework.

Characterization of the regional variability of flood regimes within the Omo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yared, Adanech; Demissie, Solomon S.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Viglione, Alberto; MacAlister, Charlotte

2014-05-01

Hydrological variability and seasonality is one of the Ethiopia's primary water resource management challenges. Variability is most obviously manifest in endemic, devastating droughts and floods. While the level of flooding is quite often extremely high and destroys human beings and property, in many cases flooding is of vital importance because the community benefits from flood recession agriculture. This is the case of the lower Omo plain whose agriculture is based on the regularity of the inundations due to flooding of the Omo Gibe River. The big flood in 2006, which caused death for more than 300 people and 2000 cattle, poses a dilemma. Flooding must be controlled and regulated in a way that the damages are reduced as much as possible but the flooding-related benefits are not lost. To this aim, characterization and understanding of hydrological variability of the Omo Gibe River basin is fundamental. The goal of this work is to extract the maximal amount of information on the hydrological variability and specially on the flooding regime from the few data available in the region. Because most of the basin is ungauged, hydrological information is reconstructed using the data from 9 gauged catchments. A daily water balance model has been developed, calibrated and validated for 9 gauged catchments and, subsequently, the parameters have been correlated to catchment characteristics in order to establish a functional relationship that allows to apply the model to ungauged catchments. Daily streamflow has been predicted for 15 ungauged catchments, which are assumed to comprehensively represent the hydrological variability of the Omo-Gibe River Basin. Even though both northern and southern catchments are affected by a strong seasonality of precipitation, with most of the rain falling in less than 3 months, most of the northern catchments are humid, while in the southern part of the Omo-Gibe River basin, the catchments are either humid, dry sub humid, semiarid or arid. As for climate, also landscape and vegetation cover is more homogeneous in the northern part of the Omo Gibe River basin than in the southern part. Consequently, the runoff variability reflects the interesting diversity of climate and landscape of the basin. The gradient of flooding regimes from the north to the south of the Omo Gibe River basin will be analysed and the impacts of possible regime changes will be discussed.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

EPA Science Inventory

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predic...

Prediction of seasonal runoff in ungauged basins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many regions of the world experience strong seasonality in climate (i.e. precipitation and temperature), and strong seasonal runoff variability. Predictable patterns in seasonal water availability are of significant benefit to society because they allow reliable planning and infrastructure developme...

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Falcone, James A.

2013-01-01

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for flood estimation! A shift to new methods for flood estimation will not be taken lightly by practitioners. However, the standard for change is clear - can we develop new methods which give significant improvements in reliability over those existing methods which are demonstrably unsatisfactory?

Chemical and isotopic fingerprinting of small ungauged watershed: How far the hydrological functioning can be understood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petelet-Giraud, Emmanuelle; Luck, Jean-Marc; Ben Othman, Dalila; Joseph, Christian; Négrel, Philippe

2016-05-01

This study presents the ability of major/trace elements together with strontium isotopes to trace water origins at small scale at the outlet of a small watershed (Peyne, Hérault, France). Two small sub-basins draining distinct lithologies in their headwater (Plio-Villafranchian conglomerate versus Triassic gypsum-rich marls and dolomites) and the Miocene formations downstream are investigated. The Ca/Na vs. Mg/Na ratios and Ca/Sr vs. 87Sr/86Sr ratios allow the different facies that imprint the water signature to be identified, according to the hydrological conditions (low/high flows). Moreover, Sr isotopes evidence the two distinct Miocene facies, the sandy marls and the marine carbonates. The variation of the signature at the outlet of the basin allows identifying the main contributing compartments according to the hydrological conditions. This approach, based on a limited number of samples, highlights the potential of geochemical and isotopic tracers to define the contributing compartments to the runoff at the outlet of a basin. It thus could be considered as a potential alternative way to classical hydrological monitoring to delineate the main contributing areas during floods, especially in small ungauged river basins, where most of the devastating flash floods are recorded.

Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

2015-05-01

Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, Elena

2013-04-01

The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation approach is then applied for modelling the streamflow originated in the fourth, ungauged, diversion watershed. Finally, the potential reservoir water availability is estimated, hypothesising to take from the diversion catchments all the streamflow exceeding the minimum flow requirements. The results indicate that modifying the water intake structures might allow a consistent increase in the storage volumes in the reservoir during the water scarcity periods: the water available to the reservoir would in fact - on average - increase of around the 13% of the abstracted annual volume.

Stochastic or statistic? Comparing flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2015-09-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.

Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-02-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadi, Peiman; Engelke, Sebastian; Davison, Anthony C.

2018-01-01

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate high quantiles at a target location that has no observations. The similarity of this group to the ungauged location is measured in terms of a hydrological distance measuring differences in physical and meteorological catchment attributes. We develop a statistical method for estimation of high return levels based on regionalizing the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution. The group of stations is chosen by optimizing over the attribute weights of the hydrological distance, ensuring similarity and in-group homogeneity. Our method is applied to discharge data from the Rhine basin in Switzerland, and its performance at ungauged locations is compared to that of other regionalization methods. For gauged locations we show how our approach improves the estimation uncertainty for long return periods by combining local measurements with those from the chosen group.

Combination of lumped hydrological and remote-sensing models to evaluate water resources in a semi-arid high altitude ungauged watershed of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain).

PubMed

Jódar, J; Carpintero, E; Martos-Rosillo, S; Ruiz-Constán, A; Marín-Lechado, C; Cabrera-Arrabal, J A; Navarrete-Mazariegos, E; González-Ramón, A; Lambán, L J; Herrera, C; González-Dugo, M P

2018-06-01

Assessing water resources in high mountain semi-arid zones is essential to be able to manage and plan the use of these resources downstream where they are used. However, it is not easy to manage an unknown resource, a situation that is common in the vast majority of high mountain hydrological basins. In the present work, the discharge flow in an ungauged basin is estimated using the hydrological parameters of an HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model calibrated in a "neighboring gauged basin". The results of the hydrological simulation obtained in terms of average annual discharge are validated using the VI-ETo model. This model relates a simple hydrological balance to the discharge of the basin with the evaporation of the vegetal cover of the soil, and this to the SAVI index, which is obtained remotely by means of satellite images. The results of the modeling for both basins underscore the role of the underground discharge in the total discharge of the hydrological system. This is the result of the deglaciation process suffered by the high mountain areas of the Mediterranean arc. This process increases the infiltration capacity of the terrain, the recharge and therefore the discharge of the aquifers that make up the glacial and periglacial sediments that remain exposed on the surface as witnesses of what was the last glaciation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2008-01-01

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Two approaches for estimating discharge on ungauged basins in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Detailed information on the hydrologic behavior of streams is available for only a small proportion of all streams. Even in cases where discharge has been monitored, these measurements may not be available for a sufficiently long period to characterize the full behavior of a str...

Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mixed Green-Ampt/Curve-Number method for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, N.; Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.

2012-04-01

With the aim of combining the practical advantages of the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model, we have developed a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt). The basic concept is that, for a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model so as to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. In a previous contribution, the proposed mixed procedure was evaluated on 100 observed events showing encouraging results. In this study, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to further explore the feasibility of applying the CN4GA tool in small ungauged catchments. The proposed mixed procedure constrains the GA model with boundary and initial conditions so that the GA soil hydraulic parameters are expected to be insensitive toward the net hyetograph peak. To verify and evaluate this behaviour, synthetic design hyetograph and synthetic rainfall time series are selected and used in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results are encouraging and confirm that the parameter variability makes the proposed method an appropriate tool for hydrologic predictions in ungauged catchments. Keywords: SCS-CN method, Green-Ampt method, rainfall excess, ungauged basins, design hydrograph, rainfall-runoff modelling.

Monthly hydroclimatology of the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Thomas; Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2018-04-01

Physical/semi-empirical models that do not require any calibration are of paramount need for estimating hydrological fluxes for ungauged sites. We develop semi-empirical models for estimating the mean and variance of the monthly streamflow based on Taylor Series approximation of a lumped physically based water balance model. The proposed models require mean and variance of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, co-variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and regionally calibrated catchment retention sensitivity, atmospheric moisture uptake sensitivity, groundwater-partitioning factor, and the maximum soil moisture holding capacity parameters. Estimates of mean and variance of monthly streamflow using the semi-empirical equations are compared with the observed estimates for 1373 catchments in the continental United States. Analyses show that the proposed models explain the spatial variability in monthly moments for basins in lower elevations. A regionalization of parameters for each water resources region show good agreement between observed moments and model estimated moments during January, February, March and April for mean and all months except May and June for variance. Thus, the proposed relationships could be employed for understanding and estimating the monthly hydroclimatology of ungauged basins using regional parameters.

Prediction of Hydrologic Characteristics for Ungauged Catchments to Support Hydroecological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Nick R.; Kennard, Mark J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic variability is a fundamental driver of ecological processes and species distribution patterns within river systems, yet the paucity of gauges in many catchments means that streamflow data are often unavailable for ecological survey sites. Filling this data gap is an important challenge in hydroecological research. To address this gap, we first test the ability to spatially extrapolate hydrologic metrics calculated from gauged streamflow data to ungauged sites as a function of stream distance and catchment area. Second, we examine the ability of statistical models to predict flow regime metrics based on climate and catchment physiographic variables. Our assessment focused on Australia's largest catchment, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). We found that hydrologic metrics were predictable only between sites within ˜25 km of one another. Beyond this, correlations between sites declined quickly. We found less than 40% of fish survey sites from a recent basin-wide monitoring program (n = 777 sites) to fall within this 25 km range, thereby greatly limiting the ability to utilize gauge data for direct spatial transposition of hydrologic metrics to biological survey sites. In contrast, statistical model-based transposition proved effective in predicting ecologically relevant aspects of the flow regime (including metrics describing central tendency, high- and low-flows intermittency, seasonality, and variability) across the entire gauge network (median R2 ˜ 0.54, range 0.39-0.94). Modeled hydrologic metrics thus offer a useful alternative to empirical data when examining biological survey data from ungauged sites. More widespread use of these statistical tools and modeled metrics could expand our understanding of flow-ecology relationships.

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanborn, Stephen C.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

2006-06-01

Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins provides essential information for water resources planning and management and ecohydrological studies yet remains a fundamental challenge to the hydrological sciences. A methodology is presented for stratifying streamflow regimes of gauged locations, classifying the regimes of ungauged streams, and developing models for predicting a suite of ecologically pertinent streamflow metrics for these streams. Eighty-four streamflow metrics characterizing various flow regime attributes were computed along with physical and climatic drainage basin characteristics for 150 streams with little or no streamflow modification in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. The diverse hydroclimatology of the study area necessitates flow regime stratification and geographically independent clusters were identified and used to develop separate predictive models for each flow regime type. Multiple regression models for flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change metrics were quite accurate with many adjusted R2 values exceeding 0.80, while models describing streamflow variability did not perform as well. Separate stratification schemes for high, low, and average flows did not considerably improve models for metrics describing those particular aspects of the regime over a scheme based on the entire flow regime. Models for streams identified as 'snowmelt' type were improved if sites in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest were separated to better stratify the processes driving streamflow in these regions thus revealing limitations of geographically independent streamflow clusters. This study demonstrates that a broad suite of ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics can be accurately modeled across large heterogeneous regions using this framework. Applications of the resulting models include stratifying biomonitoring sites and quantifying linkages between specific aspects of flow regimes and aquatic community structure. In particular, the results bode well for modeling ecological processes related to high-flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change such as the recruitment of fish and riparian vegetation across large regions.

Assessment of uncertainties in soil erosion and sediment yield estimates at ungauged basins: an application to the Garra River basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swarnkar, Somil; Malini, Anshu; Tripathi, Shivam; Sinha, Rajiv

2018-04-01

High soil erosion and excessive sediment load are serious problems in several Himalayan river basins. To apply mitigation procedures, precise estimation of soil erosion and sediment yield with associated uncertainties are needed. Here, the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) equations are used to estimate the spatial pattern of soil erosion (SE) and sediment yield (SY) in the Garra River basin, a small Himalayan tributary of the River Ganga. A methodology is proposed for quantifying and propagating uncertainties in SE, SDR and SY estimates. Expressions for uncertainty propagation are derived by first-order uncertainty analysis, making the method viable even for large river basins. The methodology is applied to investigate the relative importance of different RUSLE factors in estimating the magnitude and uncertainties in SE over two distinct morphoclimatic regimes of the Garra River basin, namely the upper mountainous region and the lower alluvial plains. Our results suggest that average SE in the basin is very high (23 ± 4.7 t ha-1 yr-1) with higher values in the upper mountainous region (92 ± 15.2 t ha-1 yr-1) compared to the lower alluvial plains (19.3 ± 4 t ha-1 yr-1). Furthermore, the topographic steepness (LS) and crop practice (CP) factors exhibit higher uncertainties than other RUSLE factors. The annual average SY is estimated at two locations in the basin - Nanak Sagar Dam (NSD) for the period 1962-2008 and Husepur gauging station (HGS) for 1987-2002. The SY at NSD and HGS are estimated to be 6.9 ± 1.2 × 105 t yr-1 and 6.7 ± 1.4 × 106 t yr-1, respectively, and the estimated 90 % interval contains the observed values of 6.4 × 105 t yr-1 and 7.2 × 106 t yr-1, respectively. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed methodology for quantifying uncertainty in SE and SY estimates at ungauged basins.

A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Cheng

2016-03-12

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

2017-11-01

The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

Flood mapping in ungauged basins using fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, Salvatore; Petroselli, Andrea; Arcangeletti, Ettore; Nardi, Fernando

2013-04-01

SummaryIn this work, a fully-continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood mapping is introduced and tested. It is characterized by a simulation of a long rainfall time series at sub-daily resolution that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing a discharge time series that is directly given as an input to a bi-dimensional hydraulic model. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the use of the design hyetograph and the design hydrograph that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty for standard methods. The proposed procedure is optimized for small and ungauged watersheds where empirical models are commonly applied. Results of a simple real case study confirm that this experimental fully-continuous framework may pave the way for the implementation of a less subjective and potentially automated procedure for flood hazard mapping.

Accounting for the influence of vegetation and landscape improves model transferability in a tropical savannah region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2016-10-01

Understanding which catchment characteristics dominate hydrologic response and how to take them into account remains a challenge in hydrological modeling, particularly in ungauged basins. This is even more so in nontemperate and nonhumid catchments, where—due to the combination of seasonality and the occurrence of dry spells—threshold processes are more prominent in rainfall runoff behavior. An example is the tropical savannah, the second largest climatic zone, characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons and high evaporative demand. In this study, we investigated the importance of landscape variability on the spatial variability of stream flow in tropical savannah basins. We applied a stepwise modeling approach to 23 subcatchments of the Upper Ping River in Thailand, where gradually more information on landscape was incorporated. The benchmark is represented by a classical lumped model (FLEXL), which does not account for spatial variability. We then tested the effect of accounting for vegetation information within the lumped model (FLEXLM), and subsequently two semidistributed models: one accounting for the spatial variability of topography-based landscape features alone (FLEXT), and another accounting for both topographic features and vegetation (FLEXTM). In cross validation, each model was calibrated on one catchment, and then transferred with its fitted parameters to the remaining catchments. We found that when transferring model parameters in space, the semidistributed models accounting for vegetation and topographic heterogeneity clearly outperformed the lumped model. This suggests that landscape controls a considerable part of the hydrological function and explicit consideration of its heterogeneity can be highly beneficial for prediction in ungauged basins in tropical savannah.

Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

2017-12-01

We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Considering both the accuracy and the computational complexity of these algorithms, we identify the extremely randomized trees as the best performing algorithm for BFI prediction in ungauged basins.

Comparative Assessment of a New Hydrological Modelling Approach for Prediction of Runoff in Gauged and Ungauged Basins, and Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A Case Study from Benin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GABA, C. O. U.; Alamou, E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B.

2016-12-01

Assessing water resources is still an important challenge especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we investigate a new modelling approach based on the Physics Principle of Least Action which was first applied to the Bétérou catchment in Benin and gave very good results. The study presents new hypotheses to go further in the model development with a view of widening its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied to sixteen (16) subcatchments in Bénin, West Africa. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The model was successfully calibrated and validated and showed a good performance in most catchments. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to evaluate the usefulness of our model for the prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, model parameters were estimated from the physical catchments characteristics. We relied on statistical methods applied on calibrated model parameters to deduce relationships between parameters and physical catchments characteristics. These relationships were further tested and validated on gauged basins that were considered ungauged. This regionalization was also performed for GR4J model.We obtained NSE values greater than 0.7 for MODHYPMA while the NSE values for GR4J were inferior to 0.5. In the presented study, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment at the outlet of Savè (about 23 500 km2) are quantified. The output of a regional climate model was used as input to the hydrological models.Computed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the future climate projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 15%) are derived from the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model.The results reveal a significant decrease in future water resources (of -66% to -53% for MODHYPMA and of -59% to -46% for GR4J) for the IPCC climate scenarios A1B and B1.

On river-floodplain interaction and hydrograph skewness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Ayan S.; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Collischonn, Walter; Sorribas, Mino V.; Pontes, Paulo R. M.

2016-10-01

Understanding hydrological processes occurring within a basin by looking at its outlet hydrograph can improve and foster comprehension of ungauged regions. In this context, we present an extensive examination of the roles that floodplains play on driving hydrograph shapes. Observations of many river hydrographs with large floodplain influence are carried out and indicate that a negative skewness of the hydrographs is present among many of them. Through a series of numerical experiments and analytical reasoning, we show how the relationship between flood wave celerity and discharge in such systems is responsible for determining the hydrograph shapes. The more water inundates the floodplains upstream of the observed point, the more negatively skewed is the observed hydrograph. A case study is performed in the Amazon River Basin, where major rivers with large floodplain attenuation (e.g., Purus, Madeira, and Juruá) are identified with higher negative skewness in the respective hydrographs. Finally, different wetland types could be distinguished by using this feature, e.g., wetlands maintained by endogenous processes, from wetlands governed by overbank flow (along river floodplains). A metric of hydrograph skewness was developed to quantify this effect, based on the time derivative of discharge. Together with the skewness concept, it may be used in other studies concerning the relevance of floodplain attenuation in large, ungauged rivers, where remote sensing data (e.g., satellite altimetry) can be very useful.

Discharge estimation in ungauged basins through variational data assimilation : The potential of the SWOT mission.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubanas, H.; Gejadze, I.; Malaterre, P. O.; Durand, M. T.; Wei, R.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Domeneghetti, A.

2017-12-01

This work investigates the estimation of river discharge from simulated observations of the forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, to be launched in 2021, using a variant of the standard variational data assimilation method `4D-Var'. The hydrology SWOT simulator, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has been used to simulate the expected performance of the KaRIn instrument onboard the satellite, producing synthetic SWOT observations of height and width, at each satellite overpass. SWOT data products were synthesized at the spatial scale of 200 m along the river centerline. Using a 1.5D full Saint-Venant hydraulic model, variational data assimilation simultaneously estimates the inflow discharge, river bathymetry and bed roughness. The proposed method has been designed for an application to fully ungauged basins; therefore, the prior information is derived from the SWOT observations only and the globally available ancillary information. Two reaches of the Po and Sacramento Rivers of about 130 km and 150 km, respectively, have been considered in this study. Discharge was successfully recovered at the overpass time with a relative-root-mean-square error of 16% and 12.3% for the Po and Sacramento Rivers, respectively. The estimates of the bed level and the roughness coefficient demonstrate a local improvement; however they may not provide reliable global information of the river bathymetry and roughness.

HYDROGRAV - Hydrological model calibration and terrestrial water storage monitoring from GRACE gravimetry and satellite altimetry - First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, O. B.; Krogh, P. E.; Michailovsky, C.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.; Christiansen, L.; Berry, P.; Garlick, J.

2008-12-01

Space-borne and ground-based time-lapse gravity observations provide new data for water balance monitoring and hydrological model calibration in the future. The HYDROGRAV project (www.hydrograv.dk) will explore the utility of time-lapse gravity surveys for hydrological model calibration and terrestrial water storage monitoring. Merging remote sensing data from GRACE with other remote sensing data like satellite altimetry and also ground based observations are important to hydrological model calibration and water balance monitoring of large regions and can serve as either supplement or as vital information in un-gauged regions. A system of GRACE custom designed Mass Concentration blocks (Mascons) have been designed to model time-variable gravity changes for the largest basins in Southern Africa (Zambezi, Okavango, Limpopo and Orange) covering an area of 9 mill km2 with a resolution of 1 by 1.25 degree. Satellite altimetry have been used to derive high resolution point-wise river height in some of the un-gauged rivers in the region by using dedicated retracking to recovers nearly un-interrupted time series over these rivers. First result from the HYDROGRAV project analyzing GRACE derived mass change from 2002 to 2008 along with in-situ gravity time-lapse observations and radar altimetry monitoring of surface water for the southern Africa river basins will be presented.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Bias-correction of PERSIANN-CDR Extreme Precipitation Estimates Over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridzad, M.; Yang, T.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Ground-based precipitation measurements can be sparse or even nonexistent over remote regions which make it difficult for extreme event analysis. PERSIANN-CDR (CDR), with 30+ years of daily rainfall information, provides an opportunity to study precipitation for regions where ground measurements are limited. In this study, the use of CDR annual extreme precipitation for frequency analysis of extreme events over limited/ungauged basins is explored. The adjustment of CDR is implemented in two steps: (1) Calculated CDR bias correction factor at limited gauge locations based on the linear regression analysis of gauge and CDR annual maxima precipitation; and (2) Extend the bias correction factor to the locations where gauges are not available. The correction factors are estimated at gauge sites over various catchments, elevation zones, and climate regions and the results were generalized to ungauged sites based on regional and climatic similarity. Case studies were conducted on 20 basins with diverse climate and altitudes in the Eastern and Western US. Cross-validation reveals that the bias correction factors estimated on limited calibration data can be extended to regions with similar characteristics. The adjusted CDR estimates also outperform gauge interpolation on validation sites consistently. It is suggested that the CDR with bias adjustment has a potential for study frequency analysis of extreme events, especially for regions with limited gauge observations.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Arctic-HYCOS: a Large Sample observing system for estimating freshwater fluxes in the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietroniro, Al; Korhonen, Johanna; Looser, Ulrich; Hardardóttir, Jórunn; Johnsrud, Morten; Vuglinsky, Valery; Gustafsson, David; Lins, Harry F.; Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Lammers, Richard; Stewart, Bruce; Abrate, Tommaso; Pilon, Paul; Sighomnou, Daniel; Arheimer, Berit

2015-04-01

The Arctic region is an important regulating component of the global climate system, and is also experiencing a considerable change during recent decades. More than 10% of world's river-runoff flows to the Arctic Ocean and there is evidence of changes in its fresh-water balance. However, about 30% of the Arctic basin is still ungauged, with differing monitoring practices and data availability from the countries in the region. A consistent system for monitoring and sharing of hydrological information throughout the Arctic region is thus of highest interest for further studies and monitoring of the freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean. The purpose of the Arctic-HYCOS project is to allow for collection and sharing of hydrological data. Preliminary 616 stations were identified with long-term daily discharge data available, and around 250 of these already provide online available data in near real time. This large sample will be used in the following scientific analysis: 1) to evaluate freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean and Seas, 2) to monitor changes and enhance understanding of the hydrological regime and 3) to estimate flows in ungauged regions and develop models for enhanced hydrological prediction in the Arctic region. The project is intended as a component of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) WHYCOS (World Hydrological Cycle Observing System) initiative, covering the area of the expansive transnational Arctic basin with participation from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden and United States of America. The overall objective is to regularly collect, manage and share high quality data from a defined basic network of hydrological stations in the Arctic basin. The project focus on collecting data on discharge and possibly sediment transport and temperature. Data should be provisional in near-real time if available, whereas time-series of historical data should be provided once quality assurance has been completed. The initial stages of the project will focus on collecting data on discharge and revise station selection criteria. For monitoring freshwater flow to oceans, stations close to the mouths of rivers and immediately inland for back-up purposes will be preferred. For studies of change emphasis is placed on hydrological regime stations located in headwaters small sub-catchments, including pristine basins. Stations outside the Arctic Ocean basin, such as at the mouth of the Yukon River, Baltic Sea and Hudson Bay, can also be considered to allow a better understanding of hydrological processes occurring in the general region. Countries shall facilitate, to the extent possible, access to their data currently published online, and also access to those not yet regularly published on the web. At a later stage data exchange standards such as WaterML2.0 will be implemented. The project will also perform pan-Arctic hydrological modelling (geo-statistical, deterministic and probabilistic methods) for the assessment and integration of observational and modelled data to improve estimates of ungauged discharge and the overall estimates of freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean, as well as understanding of hydrological processes.

Using 3D dynamic cartography and hydrological modelling for linear streamflow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drogue, G.; Pfister, L.; Leviandier, T.; Humbert, J.; Hoffmann, L.; El Idrissi, A.; Iffly, J.-F.

2002-10-01

This paper presents a regionalization methodology and an original representation of the downstream variation of daily streamflow using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HRM) and the 3D visualization tools of the GIS ArcView. The regionalization of the parameters of the HRM model was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series from five sub-basins of the Alzette river basin (Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg) according to the permeability of geological formations. After validating the transposability of the regional parameter values on five test basins, streamflow series were simulated with the model at ungauged sites in one medium size geologically contrasted test basin and interpolated assuming a linear increase of streamflow between modelling points. 3D spatio-temporal cartography of mean annual and high raw and specific discharges are illustrated. During a severe flooding, the propagation of the flood waves in the different parts of the stream network shows an important contribution of sub-basins lying on impervious geological formations (direct runoff) compared with those including permeable geological formations which have a more contrasted hydrological response. The effect of spatial variability of rainfall is clearly perceptible.

Hydrological simulation of the Brahmaputra basin using global datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Conway, Crystal; Craven, Joanne; Masih, Ilyas; Mazzolini, Maurizio; Shrestha, Shreedeepy; Ugay, Reyne; van Andel, Schalk Jan

2017-04-01

Brahmaputra River flows through China, India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal and is one of the largest rivers of the world with a catchment size of 580K km2. The catchment is largely hilly and/or forested with sparse population and with limited urbanisation and economic activities. The catchment experiences heavy monsoon rainfall leading to very high flood discharges. Large inter-annual variation of discharge leading to flooding, erosion and morphological changes are among the major challenges. The catchment is largely ungauged; moreover, limited availability of hydro-meteorological data limits the possibility of carrying out evidence based research, which could provide trustworthy information for managing and when needed, controlling, the basin processes by the riparian countries for overall basin development. The paper presents initial results of a current research project on Brahmaputra basin. A set of hydrological and hydraulic models (SWAT, HMS, RAS) are developed by employing publicly available datasets of DEM, land use and soil and simulated using satellite based rainfall products, evapotranspiration and temperature estimates. Remotely sensed data are compared with sporadically available ground data. The set of models are able to produce catchment wide hydrological information that potentially can be used in the future in managing the basin's water resources. The model predications should be used with caution due to high level of uncertainty because the semi-calibrated models are developed with uncertain physical representation (e.g. cross-section) and simulated with global meteorological forcing (e.g. TRMM) with limited validation. Major scientific challenges are seen in producing robust information that can be reliably used in managing the basin. The information generated by the models are uncertain and as a result, instead of using them per se, they are used in improving the understanding of the catchment, and by running several scenarios with varying catchment conditions the catchment dynamics is explored. Objectives are set that suit the data availability. For example, patterns (e.g., variation of rainfall in the lower basin) and aggregates/averages (seasonal averages) are preferred over point information. Instead of simulating instantaneous flood propagation flood extent corresponding to a frequency is followed. As satellite rainfall products may be erroneous so a variety of satellite based products are used as ensemble input. Satellite rainfall estimates are corrected for bias and different rainfall products are aggregated in a data fusion framework. Finally, the linkages between catchment erosion, hydrology and morphological changes are investigated and validated with remote sensing imageries. Keywords: Brahmaputra, hydrology, TRMM, data fusion, ungauged basin.

Model‐based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments

PubMed Central

Wagener, Thorsten; McGlynn, Brian

2015-01-01

Abstract Ungauged headwater basins are an abundant part of the river network, but dominant influences on headwater hydrologic response remain difficult to predict. To address this gap, we investigated the ability of a physically based watershed model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model) to represent controls on metrics of hydrologic partitioning across five adjacent headwater subcatchments. The five study subcatchments, located in Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana, have similar climate but variable topography and vegetation distribution. This facilitated a comparative hydrology approach to interpret how parameters that influence partitioning, detected via global sensitivity analysis, differ across catchments. Model parameters were constrained a priori using existing regional information and expert knowledge. Influential parameters were compared to perceptions of catchment functioning and its variability across subcatchments. Despite between‐catchment differences in topography and vegetation, hydrologic partitioning across all metrics and all subcatchments was sensitive to a similar subset of snow, vegetation, and soil parameters. Results also highlighted one subcatchment with low certainty in parameter sensitivity, indicating that the model poorly represented some complexities in this subcatchment likely because an important process is missing or poorly characterized in the mechanistic model. For use in other basins, this method can assess parameter sensitivities as a function of the specific ungauged system to which it is applied. Overall, this approach can be employed to identify dominant modeled controls on catchment response and their agreement with system understanding. PMID:27642197

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions. These results are largely reflective of cross-correlation existing in hydrologic datasets, and highlight the limited predictive power of many traditionally used variables for regional regression. A parsimonious approach including fewer variables chosen based on their connection to streamflow may be more efficient than a data mining approach including many different variables. Future regional regression studies may benefit from having a hydrologic rationale for including different variables and attempting to create new variables related to streamflow.

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Xianwu; Hong, Yang; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Gourley, Jonathan; Huffman, George J.; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Dorji, Chhimi; Chen, Sheng

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

2017-01-01

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Assessing changes in extreme river flow regulation from non-stationarity in hydrological scaling laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Estiven; Salazar, Juan Fernando; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Mercado-Bettín, Daniel

2018-07-01

Extreme flows are key components of river flow regimes that affect manifold hydrological, geomorphological and ecological processes with societal relevance. One fundamental characteristic of extreme flows in river basins is that they exhibit scaling properties which can be identified through scaling (power) laws. Understanding the physical mechanisms behind such scaling laws is a continuing challenge in hydrology, with potential implications for the prediction of river flow regimes in a changing environment and ungauged basins. After highlighting that the scaling properties are sensitive to environmental change, we develop a physical interpretation of how temporal changes in scaling exponents relate to the capacity of river basins to regulate extreme river flows. Regulation is defined here as the basins' capacity to either dampen high flows or to enhance low flows. Further, we use this framework to infer temporal changes in the regulation capacity of five large basins in tropical South America. Our results indicate that, during the last few decades, the Amazon river basin has been reducing its capacity to enhance low flows, likely as a consequence of pronounced environmental change in its south and south-eastern sub-basins. The proposed framework is widely applicable to different basins, and provides foundations for using scaling laws as empirical tools for inferring temporal changes of hydrological regulation, particularly relevant for identifying and managing hydrological consequences of environmental change.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter time steps. This study suggests that measures of hydrologic response quantified at these shorter time steps may provide a more robust basis for making predictions in applications of water resource management, model calibration and simulations, and human health and safety.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

Is there a `universal' dynamic zero-parameter hydrological model? Evaluation of a dynamic Budyko model in US and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patnaik, S.; Biswal, B.; Sharma, V. C.

2017-12-01

River flow varies greatly in space and time, and the single biggest challenge for hydrologists and ecologists around the world is the fact that most rivers are either ungauged or poorly gauged. Although it is relatively easier to predict long-term average flow of a river using the `universal' zero-parameter Budyko model, lack of data hinders short-term flow prediction at ungauged locations using traditional hydrological models as they require observed flow data for model calibration. Flow prediction in ungauged basins thus requires a dynamic 'zero-parameter' hydrological model. One way to achieve this is to regionalize a dynamic hydrological model's parameters. However, a regionalization method based zero-parameter dynamic hydrological model is not `universal'. An alternative attempt was made recently to develop a zero-parameter dynamic model by defining an instantaneous dryness index as a function of antecedent rainfall and solar energy inputs with the help of a decay function and using the original Budyko function. The model was tested first in 63 US catchments and later in 50 Indian catchments. The median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was found to be close to 0.4 in both the cases. Although improvements need to be incorporated in order to use the model for reliable prediction, the main aim of this study was to rather understand hydrological processes. The overall results here seem to suggest that the dynamic zero-parameter Budyko model is `universal.' In other words natural catchments around the world are strikingly similar to each other in the way they respond to hydrologic inputs; we thus need to focus more on utilizing catchment similarities in hydrological modelling instead of over parameterizing our models.

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Flash flood warning in mountainaious areas: using damages reports to evaluate the method at small ungauged catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defrance, Dimitri; Javelle, Pierre; Ecrepont, Stéphane; Andreassian, Vazken

2013-04-01

In Europe, flash floods mainly occur in the Mediterranean area on small catchments with a short concentration time. Anticipating this kind of events is a major issue in order to reduce the resulting damages. But for many of the impacted catchments, no data are available to calibrate and evaluate hydrological models. In this context, the aims of this study is to develop and evaluate a warning method for the Southern French Alps. This area is of particular interest, because it regroups different hydrological regimes, from purely Mediterranean to purely Alpine influences. Two main issues should be addressed: - How to define the hydrological model and its parameterization for an application in an ungauged context? - How to evaluate the final results on 'real' ungauged catchments? The first issue is a classic one. Using a 'observed' data set (154 streamflow stations with catchment areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km² and distributed rainfall available on the 1997-2006 period), we developed a regional model specifically for the studied area. For this purpose, the AIGA method, initially developed for Mediterranean catchments was adapted, in order to take into account snowmelt and to produce baseflows. Then, different parameterizations were tested, derived from different simple regionalisation techniques: - the same parameters set for the whole area defined as the median of the local calibrated parameters; - the same technique as the previous case, but by considering different sub-areas, defined as "hydro-climatically" homogeneous by previous studies; - and finally the neighbour's method. The second issue is more original. Indeed, in most studies the final evaluation is done using gauged stations as they were 'ungauged', ie keeping the at-site discharge data only for validation ant not for calibration. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the evaluation is made at the scale of the gauged catchments, which are in general greater than the catchments impacted by flash floods. Furthermore, many events are missed, since flash floods can occur very locally. In this study, we try to evaluate the results on observations collected by witnesses on 'real' ungauged catchments. The proposed method consists to use an historical data-base of flood damages reports. These data have been collected by local authorities (RTM). Finally, 139 ungauged locations were considered, where we simulated discharges for the entire 1997-2006 period. The comparison of these modelled discharges with the occurrence of an observed discharge makes it possible to determine a local 'modelled' discharge threshold above it most of the damages are observed. The pertinence of this threshold (and consequently of the model used for the simulation) is assessed by considering classical contingency statistics: probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR) and critical success index (CSI). The main advantage of this historical approach is the availability of many events in the database on very small catchments (50% less than 20 km²). The preliminary results show that on gauged basins, the base flow and the snowmelt added modules improve the performance of the AIGA method when locally calibrated. But when results are applied on real ungauged catchments, improvements become less obvious, with a small advantage for neighbour's method. These results shows the difficulty arising with ungauged catchments, specially when target catchments are smaller than the gauged 'parents'. It also illustrates the interest of the damages database used as 'proxy' data to investigate the model performances at smaller scales. This work has been done in the framework of the RHYTMME project, with the financial support of the European Union, the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Region and the French Ministry in charge of Ecology.

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then evaluated with contingency criteria (e.g., Critical Success Index, Probability Of Detection, Success Ratio) using operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France for the 2009-2012 period. The regionalised parameters of the distributed model were finally adjusted for each homogeneous hydrological area to optimize the Heidke skill score (HSS) calculated with three levels of warnings (2-, 10- and 50-year flood quantiles). This work is currently being implemented by the SCHAPI to set up an automated national flash flood warning system by 2016. Planned improvements include developing a unique continuous model to be run at a sub-hourly timestep, discharge assimilation, as well as integrating precipitation forecasts while accounting for the main sources of forecast uncertainty. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., and Arnaud, P. 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Catchments as non-linear filters: evaluating data-driven approaches for spatio-temporal predictions in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D. G.; Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Catchment and climate heterogeneity complicate prediction of runoff across time and space, and resulting parameter uncertainty can lead to large accumulated errors in hydrologic models, particularly in ungauged basins. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been shown to avoid the accumulated uncertainty associated with many physically-based models, providing an appealing alternative for hydrologic prediction. However, the effectiveness of different methods in hydrologically and geomorphically distinct catchments, and the robustness of these methods to changing climate and changing hydrologic processes remain to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of machine learning techniques to predict daily runoff across time and space using only essential climatic forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) time series as model input. Model training and testing was done using a high quality dataset of daily runoff and climate forcing data for 25+ years for 600+ minimally-disturbed catchments (drainage area range 5-25,000 km2, median size 336 km2) that cover a wide range of climatic and physical characteristics. Preliminary results using Support Vector Regression (SVR) suggest that in some catchments this nonlinear-based regression technique can accurately predict daily runoff, while the same approach fails in other catchments, indicating that the representation of climate inputs and/or catchment filter characteristics in the model structure need further refinement to increase performance. We bolster this analysis by using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (a sparse symbolic regression technique) to uncover the governing equations that describe runoff processes in catchments where SVR performed well and for ones where it performed poorly, thereby enabling inference about governing processes. This provides a robust means of examining how catchment complexity influences runoff prediction skill, and represents a contribution towards the integration of data-driven inference and physically-based models.

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

Parameter dimensionality reduction of a conceptual model for streamflow prediction in Canadian, snowmelt dominated ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Richard; Poissant, Dominique; Brissette, François

2015-11-01

This paper evaluated the effects of parametric reduction of a hydrological model on five regionalization methods and 267 catchments in the province of Quebec, Canada. The Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis was used to rank the model parameters by their influence on the model results and sequential parameter fixing was performed. The reduction in parameter correlations improved parameter identifiability, however this improvement was found to be minimal and was not transposed in the regionalization mode. It was shown that 11 of the HSAMI models' 23 parameters could be fixed with little or no loss in regionalization skill. The main conclusions were that (1) the conceptual lumped models used in this study did not represent physical processes sufficiently well to warrant parameter reduction for physics-based regionalization methods for the Canadian basins examined and (2) catchment descriptors did not adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes, namely snow accumulation and melt.

The CASH Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyler, F.; Bonnet, M.-P.; Calmant, S.; Cauhopé, M.; Cazenave, A.; Cochonneau, G.; Divol, J.; Do-Minh, K.; Frappart, F.; Gennero, M.-C.; Guyenne-Blin, K.; Huynh, F.; Leon, J. G.; Mangeas, M.; Mercier, F.; Rocquelain, GH.; Tocqueville, L.; Zanifé, O.-Z.

2006-07-01

CASH « Contribution of spatial altimetry to hydrology » aims at the definition of a global, standard, fast and long term access to a set of hydrological data concerning the greatest river basins in the world. The key questions to be answered are: what are the conditions for monitoring river water stages from altimetric radar data and how is it possible to combine altimetric data with other spatial sources or/and in-situ data in order to deliver useful parameters for hydrology community, both scientific and end users. The CASH project is ending mid-May of 2006 and there is yet a lot of tasks to be performed for altimetric heigths of continental water bodies becoming part of the scientific and end-users hydrologists day-to- day practice. The project has nethertheless delineated the way this use could be improved in a near future, and opened very interesting perspectives for ungauged or poorly gauged great basins in the world.

Uncertainty prediction for PUB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendiondo, E. M.; Tucci, C. M.; Clarke, R. T.; Castro, N. M.; Goldenfum, J. A.; Chevallier, P.

2003-04-01

IAHS’ initiative of Prediction in Ungaged Basins (PUB) attempts to integrate monitoring needs and uncertainty prediction for river basins. This paper outlines alternative ways of uncertainty prediction which could be linked with new blueprints for PUB, thereby showing how equifinality-based models should be grasped using practical strategies of gauging like the Nested Catchment Experiment (NCE). Uncertainty prediction is discussed from observations of Potiribu Project, which is a NCE layout at representative basins of a suptropical biome of 300,000 km2 in South America. Uncertainty prediction is assessed at the microscale (1 m2 plots), at the hillslope (0,125 km2) and at the mesoscale (0,125 - 560 km2). At the microscale, uncertainty-based models are constrained by temporal variations of state variables with changing likelihood surfaces of experiments using Green-Ampt model. Two new blueprints emerged from this NCE for PUB: (1) the Scale Transferability Scheme (STS) at the hillslope scale and the Integrating Process Hypothesis (IPH) at the mesoscale. The STS integrates a multi-dimensional scaling with similarity thresholds, as a generalization of the Representative Elementary Area (REA), using spatial correlation from point (distributed) to area (lumped) process. In this way, STS addresses uncertainty-bounds of model parameters, into an upscaling process at the hillslope. In the other hand, the IPH approach regionalizes synthetic hydrographs, thereby interpreting the uncertainty bounds of streamflow variables. Multiscale evidences from Potiribu NCE layout show novel pathways of uncertainty prediction under a PUB perspective in representative basins of world biomes.

Hydropower potential mapping in mountain basins by high-resolution hydrological and GIS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claps, P.; Gallo, E.; Ganora, D.; Laio, F.; Masoero, A.

2013-12-01

Even in regions with mature hydropower development, needs for stable renewable power sources suggest to revise plans of exploitation of water resources, in compliance to the framework of international and national environmental regulations. This goal requires high-resolution hydrological analysis, that allows to : i) comply with the effects of existing hydropower plants or of other types of water withdrawals; ii) to assist the planner to figure out potential of new plants with still high marginal efficiency; iii) to assist the regulator in the process of comparing projects based on different solutions and different underlying hydrologic estimation methods. Flow duration curves (FDC) are the tool usually adopted to represent water availability and variability for hydropower purposes. They are usually determined in ungauged basins by means of regional statistical analysis. For this study, a 'spatially smooth' regional estimation method (SSEM) has been developed for FDC estimation, with some evolutions from a previous version: i) the method keeps the estimates of mean annual runoff congruent in the confluences by considering only raster-summable explanatory variables; ii) the presence of existing reservoirs and hydropower plants is taken into account by restoring the ';natural' statistics of the curve. The SSEM reconstructs the the FDC in ungauged basins using its L-moments from regressions on geomorphoclimatic descriptors. Relations are obtained on more than 100 gauged basins located in Northwestern Italy. To support the assessment of residual hydropower potential on two specific mountain watersheds the model has been applied extensively (Hi-Res) by mapping the estimated mean flow for each pixel of a DEM-derived river network raster model. 25000 sections were then identified over the network extracted from a 50m-resolution DTM. Spatial algorithms and data management were developed using Free&OpenSource Software (FOSS) (GRASS GIS and PostgreSQL/PostGIS), with the spatial database required to store perimeters and other descriptors needed for the hydrological estimation. Specific efforts have been devoted to spatial representation of the available potential using different flow-(elevation drop) relations for each pixel (along-river path, straight within floating window, in-valley constrained, etc.). This representation expands the information content and the domain of application of the classical hydrodynamic curve ( elevation-drop/ contributing area). Specific and abrupt changes due to existing plants are then clearly represented to provide a complete picture of the available potential for planning and regulation purposes.

78 FR 70574 - Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-26

...] Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L.93-320) (Act) to...

77 FR 61784 - Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council

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2012-10-11

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory... River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L. 93-320) (Act) to receive reports and advise Federal agencies on...

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2012-04-19

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory... River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L. 93-320) (Act) to receive reports and advise Federal agencies on...

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2010-10-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory... River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L. 93-320) (Act) to receive reports and advise Federal agencies on...

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... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory... River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L. 93-320) (Act) to receive reports and advise Federal agencies on...

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... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory...: The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council (Council) was established by the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Pub. L. 93-320) (Act) to receive reports and advise Federal...

Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

Understanding similarity of groundwater systems with empirical copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaf, Ezra; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

Within the classification framework for groundwater systems that aims for identifying similarity of hydrogeological systems and transferring information from a well-observed to an ungauged system (Haaf and Barthel, 2015; Haaf and Barthel, 2016), we propose a copula-based method for describing groundwater-systems similarity. Copulas are an emerging method in hydrological sciences that make it possible to model the dependence structure of two groundwater level time series, independently of the effects of their marginal distributions. This study is based on Samaniego et al. (2010), which described an approach calculating dissimilarity measures from bivariate empirical copula densities of streamflow time series. Subsequently, streamflow is predicted in ungauged basins by transferring properties from similar catchments. The proposed approach is innovative because copula-based similarity has not yet been applied to groundwater systems. Here we estimate the pairwise dependence structure of 600 wells in Southern Germany using 10 years of weekly groundwater level observations. Based on these empirical copulas, dissimilarity measures are estimated, such as the copula's lower- and upper corner cumulated probability, copula-based Spearman's rank correlation - as proposed by Samaniego et al. (2010). For the characterization of groundwater systems, copula-based metrics are compared with dissimilarities obtained from precipitation signals corresponding to the presumed area of influence of each groundwater well. This promising approach provides a new tool for advancing similarity-based classification of groundwater system dynamics. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2015. Methods for assessing hydrogeological similarity and for classification of groundwater systems on the regional scale, EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2016. An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria. Samaniego, L., Bardossy, A., Kumar, R., 2010. Streamflow prediction in ungauged catchments using copula-based dissimilarity measures. Water Resources Research, 46. DOI:10.1029/2008wr007695

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Catchment Classification: Connecting Climate, Structure and Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicz, K. A.; Wagener, T.; Sivapalan, M.; Troch, P. A.; Carrillo, G. A.

2010-12-01

Hydrology does not yet possess a generally accepted catchment classification framework. Such a classification framework needs to: [1] give names to things, i.e. the main classification step, [2] permit transfer of information, i.e. regionalization of information, [3] permit development of generalizations, i.e. to develop new theory, and [4] provide a first order environmental change impact assessment, i.e., the hydrologic implications of climate, land use and land cover change. One strategy is to create a catchment classification framework based on the notion of catchment functions (partitioning, storage, and release). Results of an empirical study presented here connects climate and structure to catchment function (in the form of select hydrologic signatures), based on analyzing over 300 US catchments. Initial results indicate a wide assortment of signature relationships with properties of climate, geology, and vegetation. The uncertainty in the different regionalized signatures varies widely, and therefore there is variability in the robustness of classifying ungauged basins. This research provides insight into the controls of hydrologic behavior of a catchment, and enables a classification framework applicable to gauged and ungauged across the study domain. This study sheds light on what we can expect to achieve in mapping climate, structure and function in a top-down manner. Results of this study complement work done using a bottom-up physically-based modeling framework to generalize this approach (Carrillo et al., this session).

Development of a real-time hydrological cycle - rice growth coupled simulation system as a tool for farmers' decision making in an ungauged basin in Cambodia for the better agricultural water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimoto, K.; Ohta, T.; Yasukawa, M.; Koike, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Homma, K.

2013-12-01

The entire country of Cambodia depends on agriculture for its economy. Rice is the staple food, making it the major agricultural product (roughly 80% of total national production). The target area of this study is western Cambodia, where rice production is the greatest in the country and most land is rainfed. Since most farmers rely only on their (non-science-based) experience, they would not adjust to changing rainfall and degraded water resources under climate change, so food security in the region would be seriously threatened (Monichoth et al., 2013). Under this condition, irrigation master plans are being considered by several ODA projects. This study aims to contribute to the design of such irrigation plans through the development of a real-time hydrological cycle - rice growth coupled simulation system. The purpose of the development of this system is to support decision making 1) for determining the necessary agricultural water resources and 2) for allocating limited water resources to various sectors. Rice growing condition as affected by water stress due to the water shortage is supposed to be shown for both of the cases with and without irrigation for several rainfall patterns. A dynamically coupled model of a distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM., Wang et al., 2009) and a rice growth model (SIMRIW-rainfed, Homma et al., 2009) has been developed with a simple irrigation model. The target basin, a small basin in western Cambodia, is basically an ungauged basin and the model was validated by soil moisture, LAI, dry matter production of the rice crop, and rice yield, using both intensive field observation and satellite observations. Calibrating hourly satellite precipitation dataset (GSMaP/NRT) using ground rain gauges, hydrological cycle (soil moisture at three layers, river discharge, irrigatable water amount, water level of each paddy field, water demand of each paddy field, etc.) and rice growth (LAI, developmental index of the rice crop, dry matter production of the rice crop, etc.) are being calculated on near real time basis and opened to the Cambodian governmental staff by a website with only 5-hour delay. This system enables the Cambodian local government to virtually experience the effectiveness of irrigation and to get qualitative information for the examination on whether or how much they will investigate for irrigation.

Evaluating the performance of remotely sensed and reanalysed precipitation data over West Africa using HBV light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jütten, Thomas; Jackisch, Dominik; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne

2016-04-01

Water is one of the most crucial natural resources in West Africa, where the livelihoods of large parts of the population rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, the modelling of the water balance is an important tool to aid in water resource management. Precipitation is one of most important atmospheric drivers of hydrological models. However, ground-based observation networks are sparse in Western Africa and a further decline in station numbers due to a variety of reasons such as the deterioration of stations or political unrest has been observed in recent years. In ungauged river basins, or basins with insufficiently available precipitation data, several studies have shown that remotely sensed or reanalysed precipitation data may be used to compliment or replace missing information. However, the uncertainties of these datasets over Western Africa are not well examined and a need for further studies is apparent. For validation purposes, precipitation datasets are traditionally compared to in-situ ground measurements. This is not possible in ungauged basins. A new approach to assess the quality of satellite and reanalysis data which is gaining popularity among researchers compares different precipitation datasets using hydrological models. In this so-called hydrological evaluation, ground-truth data is no longer necessary in order to validate a product. The chosen model is calibrated for different precipitation products and the simulated streamflow generated for each product is compared to the measured streamflow. Multiple state of the art satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets with various spatial resolutions were used in this study, namely: CFSR (0.3125°), CHIRPS (0.05°), CMORPH (0.25°), PERSIANN (0.25°), RFE 2.0 (0.1°), TAMSAT (0.0375°), TRMM 3B42 v7 (0.25°) and TRMM 3B42RT (real time) (0.25°). These datasets were evaluated at the regional as well as local scale using the HBV light conceptual hydrological model for several basins located in West Africa. The streamflow generated by the model was compared to the observed streamflow provided by various German, French and West African agencies in order to assess the performance and uncertainties of each product. This study is part of the COAST project (Studying changes of sea level and water storage for coastal regions in West-Africa using satellite and terrestrial data sets) of the University of Bonn, supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under Grant No. DI 443/6-1. Keywords: precipitation products, hydrological model, hydrologic evaluation, West Africa

Forward to the Future: Estimating River Discharge with McFLI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleason, C. J.; Durand, M. T.; Garambois, P. A.

2016-12-01

The global surface water budget is still poorly understood, and improving our understanding of freshwater budgets requires coordination between in situ observations, models, and remote sensing. The upcoming launch of the NASA/CNES Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite has generated considerable excitement as a new tool enabling hydrologists to tackle some of the most pressing questions facing their discipline. One question in particular which SWOT seems well suited to answer is river discharge (flow rate) estimation in ungauged basins: SWOT's anticipated measurements of river surface height and area have ushered in a new technique in hydrology- what we are here calling Mass conserved Flow Law Inversions, or McFLI. McFLI algorithms leverage classic hydraulic flow expressions (e.g. Manning's Equation, hydraulic geometry) within mass conserved river reaches to construct a simplified but still underconstrained system of equations to be solved for an unknown discharge. Most existing McFLI techniques have been designed to take advantage of SWOT's measurements and Manning's Equation: SWOT will observe changes in cross sectional area and river surface slope over time, so the McFLI need only solve for baseflow area and Manning's roughness coefficient. Recently published preliminary results have indicated that McFLI can be a viable tool in a global hydrologist's toolbox (discharge errors less than 30% as compared to gauges are possible in most cases). Therefore, we here outline the progress to date for McFLI techniques, and highlight three key areas for future development: 1) Maximize the accuracy and robustness of McFLI by incorporating ancillary data from satellites, models, and in situ observations. 2) Develop new McFLI techniques using novel or underutilized flow laws. 3) Systematically test McFLI to define different inversion classes of rivers with well-defined error budgets based on geography and available data for use in gauged and ungauged basins alike.

Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a QGIS tool for a cost-effective delineation of the floodplains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samela, Caterina; Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Manfreda, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The importance of delineating flood hazard and risk areas at a global scale has been highlighted for many years. However, its complete achievement regularly encounters practical difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In conditions of scarce data availability (e.g. ungauged basins, large-scale analyses), a fast and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be carried out using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2011; 2014). In particular, an automatic DEM-based procedure has been implemented in an open-source QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area - tool (GFA - tool). This tool performs a linear binary classification based on the recently proposed Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI), which exhibited high classification accuracy and reliability in several test sites located in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017; Samela, 2016). The GFA - tool is designed to make available to all users the proposed procedure, that includes a number of operations requiring good geomorphic and GIS competences. It allows computing the GFI through terrain analysis, turning it into a binary classifier, and training it on the base of a standard inundation map derived for a portion of the river basin (a minimum of 2% of the river basin's area is suggested) using detailed methods of analysis (e.g. flood hazard maps produced by emergency management agencies or river basin authorities). Finally, GFA - tool allows to extend the classification outside the calibration area to delineate the flood-prone areas across the entire river basin. The full analysis has been implemented in this plugin with a user-friendly interface that should make it easy to all user to apply the approach and produce the desired results. Keywords: flood susceptibility; data scarce environments; geomorphic flood index; linear binary classification; Digital elevation models (DEMs). References Manfreda, S., Di Leo, M., Sole, A., (2011). Detection of Flood Prone Areas using Digital Elevation Models, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16(10), 781-790. Manfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the Use of Geomorphic Approaches for the Delineation of Flood Prone Areas, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2015). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Natural Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C. (2016), 100-year flood susceptibility maps for the continental U.S. derived with a geomorphic method. University of Basilicata. Dataset. Samela, C., Manfreda, S., Paola, F. D., Giugni, M., Sole, A., & Fiorentino, M. (2016). DEM-Based Approaches for the Delineation of Flood-Prone Areas in an Ungauged Basin in Africa. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 21(2), 1-10. Samela, C., Troy, T.J., Manfreda, S. (2017). Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments, Advances in Water Resources (under review).

Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2010-05-01

The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important source of economic income for Botswana. A second hydrological model simulating flow through the wetlands is used to study the impact of catchment runoff changes on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The final goal of the project is to demonstrate the relation between economic benefits of water abstractions in the upstream and downstream environmental impact. Furthermore the results will provide a basis for defining adequate compensations for upstream stakeholders who forego benefits of agricultural intensification to ensure the conservation of downstream ecosystem services.

Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at ungauged sites: risk management under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, San Chuin; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liong, Shie-Yui

2014-12-01

The impact of a changing climate is already being felt on several hydrological systems both on a regional and sub-regional scale of the globe. Southeast Asia is one of the regions strongly affected by climate change. With climate change, one of the anticipated impacts is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall which further increase the region's flood catastrophes, human casualties and economic loss. Optimal mitigation measures can be undertaken only when stormwater systems are designed using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves derived from a long and good quality rainfall data. Developing IDF curves for the future climate can be even more challenging especially for ungauged sites. The current practice to derive current climate's IDF curves for ungauged sites is, for example, to `borrow' or `interpolate' data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. Recent measures to derive IDF curves for present climate was performed by extracting rainfall data from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model driven by ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. This approach has been demonstrated on an ungauged site (Java, Indonesia) and the results were quite promising. In this paper, the authors extend the application of the approach to other ungauged sites particularly in Peninsular Malaysia. The results of the study undoubtedly have significance contribution in terms of local and regional hydrology (Malaysia and Southeast Asian countries). The anticipated impacts of climate change especially increase in rainfall intensity and its frequency appreciates the derivation of future IDF curves in this study. It also provides policy makers better information on the adequacy of storm drainage design, for the current climate at the ungauged sites, and the adequacy of the existing storm drainage to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Estimation of frequency based flood peaks for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

The present study has been conducted to evaluate eight flood prediction models for an ungauged small watershed. These models are either frequently used by or were developed by Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LADOTD). The eight...

Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, P. K.; Han, D.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Bray, M.; Islam, T.; Petropoulos, G.; Gupta, M.

2015-12-01

Hydro-meteorological variables such as Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for discharge prediction. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting model) can be used for prediction of hydro-meteorological variables. However, hydro-meteorologists would like to know how well the downscaled global data products are as compared to ground based measurements and whether it is possible to use the downscaled data for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, most of the stations have only rain and flow gauges installed. Measurements of other weather hydro-meteorological variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and dew point are usually missing and thus complicate the problems. In this study, for downscaling the global datasets, the WRF model is setup over the Brue catchment with three nested domains (D1, D2 and D3) of horizontal grid spacing of 81 km, 27 km and 9 km are used. The hydro-meteorological variables are downscaled using the WRF model from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets and subsequently used for the ETo estimation using the Penman Monteith equation. The analysis of weather variables and precipitation are compared against the ground based datasets, which indicate that the datasets are in agreement with the observed datasets for complete monitoring period as well as during the seasons except precipitation whose performance is poorer in comparison to the measured rainfall. After a comparison, the WRF estimated precipitation and ETo are then used as a input parameter in the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) for discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are also taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction following the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates in predicted discharge using WRF downscaled ETo have comparable performance to ground based observed datasets and hence is promising for discharge prediction in the absence of ground based measurements.

Predictions of runoff signatures in ungauged basins: Austrian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viglione, A.; Parajka, J.; Salinas, J.; Rogger, M.; Sivapalan, M.; Bloeschl, G.

2012-12-01

Runoff variability can be broken up into several components, each of them meaningful of a certain class of applications of societal relevance: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curve, low flows, floods and hydrographs. We call them runoff signatures and we view them as a manifestation of catchment functioning at different time scales, as emergent properties of the complex systems that catchments are. Just as a medical doctor has many different options for studying the state and functioning of a patient, we can infer the state and functioning of a catchment observing its runoff signatures. But what can we do in the absence of runoff data? This study aims to understand how well one can predict runoff signatures in ungauged catchments. The comparison across signatures is based on one consistent data set (Austria) and one regionalisation method (Top-Kriging) in order to explore the relative performance of the predictions of each of the signatures. Results indicate that the performance, assessed by cross-validation, is best for annual and seasonal runoff, it degrades as one moves to low flows and floods and goes up again to high values for runoff hydrographs. Also, dedicated regionalisation methods, i.e. focusing on particular signatures and their characteristics, provide better predictions of the signatures than regionalisation of the entire hydrograph. These results suggest that the use of signatures in the calibration or assessment of process models can be valuable, in that this can lead to models predicting runoff correctly for the right reasons.

Uncertainty Assessment of Synthetic Design Hydrographs for Gauged and Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Sikorska, Anna E.; Furrer, Reinhard; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-03-01

Design hydrographs described by peak discharge, hydrograph volume, and hydrograph shape are essential for engineering tasks involving storage. Such design hydrographs are inherently uncertain as are classical flood estimates focusing on peak discharge only. Various sources of uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty of synthetic design hydrographs for gauged and ungauged catchments. These comprise model uncertainties, sampling uncertainty, and uncertainty due to the choice of a regionalization method. A quantification of the uncertainties associated with flood estimates is essential for reliable decision making and allows for the identification of important uncertainty sources. We therefore propose an uncertainty assessment framework for the quantification of the uncertainty associated with synthetic design hydrographs. The framework is based on bootstrap simulations and consists of three levels of complexity. On the first level, we assess the uncertainty due to individual uncertainty sources. On the second level, we quantify the total uncertainty of design hydrographs for gauged catchments and the total uncertainty of regionalizing them to ungauged catchments but independently from the construction uncertainty. On the third level, we assess the coupled uncertainty of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments, jointly considering construction and regionalization uncertainty. We find that the most important sources of uncertainty in design hydrograph construction are the record length and the choice of the flood sampling strategy. The total uncertainty of design hydrographs in ungauged catchments depends on the catchment properties and is not negligible in our case.

Large-scale hydrological simulations using the soil water assessment tool, protocol development, and application in the danube basin.

PubMed

Pagliero, Liliana; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Willems, Patrick; Diels, Jan

2014-01-01

The Water Framework Directive of the European Union requires member states to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. A harmonized pan-European assessment of water resources availability and quality, as affected by various management options, is necessary for a successful implementation of European environmental legislation. In this context, we developed a methodology to predict surface water flow at the pan-European scale using available datasets. Among the hydrological models available, the Soil Water Assessment Tool was selected because its characteristics make it suitable for large-scale applications with limited data requirements. This paper presents the results for the Danube pilot basin. The Danube Basin is one of the largest European watersheds, covering approximately 803,000 km and portions of 14 countries. The modeling data used included land use and management information, a detailed soil parameters map, and high-resolution climate data. The Danube Basin was divided into 4663 subwatersheds of an average size of 179 km. A modeling protocol is proposed to cope with the problems of hydrological regionalization from gauged to ungauged watersheds and overparameterization and identifiability, which are usually present during calibration. The protocol involves a cluster analysis for the determination of hydrological regions and multiobjective calibration using a combination of manual and automated calibration. The proposed protocol was successfully implemented, with the modeled discharges capturing well the overall hydrological behavior of the basin. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Prediction of Daily Flow Duration Curves and Streamflow for Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Flow Duration Curves

EPA Science Inventory

This study presents a method to predict flow duration curves (FDCs) and streamflow for ungauged catchments in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA. We selected 29 catchments from the Appalachian Plateau, Ridge and Valley, and Piedmont physiographic provinces to develop and test the propo...

A technique to minimize uncertainties in load duration curves (LDCs) for water quality-impaired ungauged sites

EPA Science Inventory

For many water quality-impaired stream segments, streamflow and water quality monitoring sites are not available. Lack of available streamflow data at impaired ungauged sites leads to uncertainties in total maximum daily load (TMDL) estimation. We developed a technique to minimiz...

Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

2016-04-01

Early detection of flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, is still challenging due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Also the rapid rising of waters necessarily limits the lead time of warnings to alert communities and activate effective emergency procedures. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km²) ungauged basins based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The current deterministic AIGA system has been run in real-time in the South of France since 2005 and has been tested in the RHYTMME project (rhytmme.irstea.fr/). It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced for implementing the national flash flood warning system for the entire French territory by 2016. To further extend the effective warning lead time, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to ingest Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts. The AROME-NWC system combines the most recent available observations with forecasts from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015). AROME-NWC pre-operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, produced every hour at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon, were provided for 3 significant rain events in September and November 2014 and ingested as time-lagged ensembles. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 185 basins in the South of France showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Brier Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. Planned enhancements include integrating additional probabilistic NWP products (e.g., AROME precipitation ensembles on longer forecast horizon), accounting for and reducing hydrologic uncertainties from the model parameters and initial conditions via data assimilation, and developing a comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi: 10.1002/qj.2463

Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

High-Resolution Free-GIS operations to assist hydropower potential assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Gallo, Enrico; Masoero, Alessandro; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2013-04-01

Even in regions with mature hydropower development, needs for renewable energy suggest to revise plans of exploitation of water resources, according to EU and national environmental regulations. High resolution hydrological analysis is then needed to comply with the effects of existing hydropower plants and of other water withdrawals. Flow duration curves (FDC) are the tool usually adopted to represent water availability and variability for hydropower purposes. For this study, developed within the RENERFOR-ALCOTRA Project, a regional "spatially smooth" model has been developed for FDC estimation: the procedure adopted relates the L-moments of the FDC to several geomorphoclimatic parameters (more than 100), with the purpose to directly reconstruct a "naturalized" FDC. The proposed procedure is systematically extended to all the gauged basins located in Northwestern Italy, which is an area characterized by the presence of a large number of dams. For each basin, the annual average FDC is computed, its L-moments are calculated and corrected using a simplified model that takes into account the effect of upstream reservoirs and power plants. Then, each corrected L-moment is regionalized using multiple regressions techniques, allowing one to reconstruct the L-moments at any ungauged basin. Finally, the "naturalized" FDC is reconstructed at the ungauged site on the basis of the predicted L-moments. Due to necessity of obtaining high-resolution estimates, the method has been designed to keep the estimates of mean annual runoff congruent in the confluences. This feature is obtained considering only raster-summable explanatory variables, which are only a subset of the available descriptors. The residual hydropower potential is evaluated by mapping the mean naturalized flow estimated for each pixel of a DEM-derived river network raster model in two mountain basins used as case studies. Applying extensively the proposed methodology, the mean annual flow is reconstructed not only in some significant sections, but in all the about 25000 sections defined by each network pixel. We used a 50 m DEM to compute, for each network pixel, the upstream watershed and all the morpho-climatic characteristics needed in the regional model. Maps obtained can return flow-altitude relations for each pixel along a drainage path assuming different possible headrace length (1, 2.5 and 5 km). Spatial algorithms and data management are developed by the use of the Free&OpenSource software GRASS GIS and PostgreSQL as database manager, integrated with PostGIS elaboration to create the outputs. The large number of data and the complexity of the information derived required some thinking about the best way to access and represent the data, that has to be easy-to-use also for no-expert GIS users.

Representative sets of design hydrographs for ungauged catchments: A regional approach using probabilistic region memberships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Seibert, Jan; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-02-01

Traditional design flood estimation approaches have focused on peak discharges and have often neglected other hydrograph characteristics such as hydrograph volume and shape. Synthetic design hydrograph estimation procedures overcome this deficiency by jointly considering peak discharge, hydrograph volume, and shape. Such procedures have recently been extended to allow for the consideration of process variability within a catchment by a flood-type specific construction of design hydrographs. However, they depend on observed runoff time series and are not directly applicable in ungauged catchments where such series are not available. To obtain reliable flood estimates, there is a need for an approach that allows for the consideration of process variability in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. In this study, we therefore propose an approach that combines a bivariate index flood approach with event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction. First, regions of similar flood reactivity are delineated and a classification rule that enables the assignment of ungauged catchments to one of these reactivity regions is established. Second, event-type specific synthetic design hydrographs are constructed using the pooled data divided by event type from the corresponding reactivity region in a bivariate index flood procedure. The approach was tested and validated on a dataset of 163 Swiss catchments. The results indicated that 1) random forest is a suitable classification model for the assignment of an ungauged catchment to one of the reactivity regions, 2) the combination of a bivariate index flood approach and event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction enables the consideration of event types in ungauged catchments, and 3) the use of probabilistic class memberships in regional synthetic design hydrograph construction helps to alleviate the problem of misclassification. Event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph sets enable the inclusion of process variability into design flood estimation and can be used as a compromise between single best estimate synthetic design hydrographs and continuous simulation studies.

Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

2017-04-01

We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For such an approach has been used a methodology that consists of the application of a process-based geomorphological mapping, based on data derived from GIS analysis using high-resolution DEMs, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. Our integrated approach, which allows quantification of the flow rate and a semi-quantitative assessment of sediment that can be mobilized during hydro-meteorological events, is applied for the first time to torrential catchmenmts of the southern Apennines and may significantly contribute to previsional studies aimed at risk mitigation in the study region.

Hydrological simulation of a small ungauged agricultural watershed Semrakalwana of Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Denis, Derrick Mario; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Kumar, Mukesh; Srivastava, Santosh Kumar; Denis, Anjelo Francis; Kumar, Rajendra

2017-10-01

A study was conducted to develop a hydrological model for agriculture dominated Semra watershed (4.31 km2) and Semrakalwana village at Allahabad using a semi distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. In model evaluation it was found that the SWAT does not require much calibration, and therefore, can be employed in unguaged watershed. A seasonal (Kharif, Rabi and Zaid seasons) and annual water budget analysis was performed to quantify various components of the hydrologic cycle. The average annual surface runoff varied from 379 to 386 mm while the evapotranspiration of the village was in the range of 359-364 mm. The average annual percolation and return flow was found to be 265-272 mm and 147-255 mm, respectively. The initial soil water content of the village was found in the range of 328-335 mm while the final soil water content was 356-362 mm. The study area fall under a rain-fed river basin (Tons River basin) with no contribution from snowmelt, the winter and summer season is highly affected by less water availability for crops and municipal use. Seasonal (Rabi, Kharif and Zaid crop seasons) and annual water budget of Semra watershed and Semrakalwana village evoke the need of conservation structures such as check dams, farm ponds, percolation tank, vegetative barrier, etc. to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements for winter and summer period.

Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.

2014-09-01

In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region), for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90) are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

Evaluation of globally available precipitation data products as input for water balance models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebrenz, H.; Bárdossy, A.

2009-04-01

Subject of this study is the evaluation of globally available precipitation data products, which are intended to be used as input variables for water balance models in ungauged basins. The selected data sources are a) the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), b) the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and c) the Climate Research Unit (CRU), resulting into twelve globally available data products. The data products imply different data bases, different derivation routines and varying resolutions in time and space. For validation purposes, the ground data from South Africa were screened on homogeneity and consistency by various tests and an outlier detection using multi-linear regression was performed. External Drift Kriging was subsequently applied on the ground data and the resulting precipitation arrays were compared to the different products with respect to quantity and variance.

Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

2017-04-01

A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated parameter set up of SHM of Subarnarekha basin to test the applicability of SHM in hydrologically homogeneous regions of India. Keywords: SHM, regionalization, homogeneity, donor catchment, similarity index, cluster analysis

2D Flood Modelling Using Advanced Terrain Analysis Techniques And A Fully Continuous DEM-Based Rainfall-Runoff Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nardi, F.; Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.

2012-12-01

Remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), largely available at high resolution, and advanced terrain analysis techniques built in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), provide unique opportunities for DEM-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling in data-scarce river basins paving the way for flood mapping at the global scale. This research is based on the implementation of a fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modelling optimized for ungauged basins with limited river flow measurements. The proposed procedure is characterized by a rainfall generator that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing flow time series that are routed along the channel using a bidimensional hydraulic model for the detailed representation of the inundation process. The main advantage of the proposed approach is the characterization of the entire physical process during hydrologic extreme events of channel runoff generation, propagation, and overland flow within the floodplain domain. This physically-based model neglects the need for synthetic design hyetograph and hydrograph estimation that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty of standard methods for flood mapping. Selected case studies show results and performances of the proposed procedure as respect to standard event-based approaches.

Wildfire disturbance impacts on streamflow from western USA watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadol, D.; Wine, M.; Makhnin, O.

2017-12-01

Worldwide rapid changes in climate overlaid on changing land management paradigms have dramatically altered ecological disturbance regimes worldwide including in western North America. Ecological disturbances impacted include woody encroachment, pest pathogen complexes, riparian forest changes, and wildfire. These disturbances impact the hydrologic cycle, though the nature of these impacts has been difficult to quantify. Perhaps the greatest challenge is that most basins worldwide are ungauged. Taking wildfire as a globally relevant example of a key ecological disturbance, even within gauged basins, post-wildfire hydrologic response is spatially and temporally variable, affected by a host of variables including fire frequency, area burned, and recovery trajectory. Hydrologic response to wildfire is further understood to be a non-linear function of watershed characteristics and climate. Here we provide a framework that utilizes remote sensing, statistical modeling, field measurements, and geospatial methods to provide first-order estimates of ecological disturbance hydrologic impacts. We apply this framework to compare ecological disturbance hydrologic impacts amongst selected watersheds in the western USA. Here we show that ecological disturbance impacts on hydrology are highly variable, and in many cases have an effect magnitude similar to that modeled for temperature and precipitation changes.

Low-cost approaches to problem-driven hydrologic research: The case of Arkavathy watershed, India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Ballukraya, P. N.; Jeremiah, K.; R, A.

2014-12-01

Groundwater depletion is a major problem in the Arkavathy Basin and it is the probable cause of declining flows in the Arkavathy River. However, investigating groundwater trends and groundwater-surface water linkages is extremely challenging in a data-scarce environment where basins are largely ungauged so there is very little historical data; often the data are missing, flawed or biased. Moreover, hard-rock aquifer data are very difficult to interpret. In the absence of reliable data, establishing a trend let alone the causal linkages is a severe challenge. We used a combination of low-cost, participatory, satellite based and conventional data collection methods to maximize spatial and temporal coverage of data. For instance, long-term groundwater trends are biased because only a few dug wells with non-representative geological conditions still have water - the vast majority of the monitoring wells drilled in the 1970s and 1980s have dried up. Instead, we relied on "barefoot hydrology" techniques. By conducting a comprehensive well census, engaging farmers in participatory groundwater monitoring and using locally available commercial borewell scanning techniques we have been able to better establish groundwater trends and spatial patterns.

Use of «MLCM3» software for flash flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolova, Daria; Kuzmin, Vadim

2017-04-01

Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community.In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on "traditional" physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfortunately, most of river basins in Russia are poorly gauged or ungauged; besides, lack of hydrogeological data is quite typical, especially, in remote regions of Siberia. However, the developing economy and population safety make us to issue warnings based on reliable forecasts. For this purpose, a new hydrological model, MLCM3 (Multi-Layer Conceptual Model, 3rd generation) has been developed in the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. MLCM3 is a "rainfall-runoff"model with flexible structure and high level of"conceptualization".Model forcing includes precipitation and evaporation data basically coming from NWP model output. Water comes to the outlet through several layers; their number as well as two parameters (thickness and infiltration rate) for each of them, surface flow velocity (when the top layer is full of water) are optimized. The main advantage of the MLCM3, in comparison to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM), Soil Moisture Accounting and Routing (SMAR) model and similar models, is that its automatic calibration is very fast and efficient with less volume of information. For instance, in comparison to SAC-SMA, which is calibrated using either Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm (SCE-UA), or Stepwise Line Search (SLS), automatically calibrated MLCM3 gives better or comparable results without using any "a priori" data or essential processor resources. This advantage allows using the MLCM3 for very fast streamflow prediction in many basins. When assimilated NWP model output data used to force the model, the forecasts accuracy is quite acceptable and enough for automatic warning. Also please note that, in comparison to the 2nd generation of the model, a very useful new option has been added. Now it is possible to set upvariable infiltration rate of the top layer; this option is quite promising in terms of spring floods modeling. (At the moment it is necessary to perform more numerical experiments with snow melting; obtained results will be reported later). Recently new software for MLCM3 was developed. It contains quite usual and understandable options. Formation of the model "input" can be done in manual and automatic mode. Manual or automatic calibration of the model can be performed using either purposely developed for this model optimization algorithm, or Nelder-Mead's one, or SLS. For the model calibration, the multi-scale objective function (MSOF) proposed by Koren is used. It has shown its very high efficiency when model forcing data have high level of uncertainty. Other types of objective functions also can be used, such as mean square error and Nash-Sutcliff criterion. The model showed good results in more than 50 tested basins.

An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaf, Ezra; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

When assessing hydrogeological conditions at the regional scale, the analyst is often confronted with uncertainty of structures, inputs and processes while having to base inference on scarce and patchy data. Haaf and Barthel (2015) proposed a concept for handling this predicament by developing a groundwater systems classification framework, where information is transferred from similar, but well-explored and better understood to poorly described systems. The concept is based on the central hypothesis that similar systems react similarly to the same inputs and vice versa. It is conceptually related to PUB (Prediction in ungauged basins) where organization of systems and processes by quantitative methods is intended and used to improve understanding and prediction. Furthermore, using the framework it is expected that regional conceptual and numerical models can be checked or enriched by ensemble generated data from neighborhood-based estimators. In a first step, groundwater hydrographs from a large dataset in Southern Germany are compared in an effort to identify structural similarity in groundwater dynamics. A number of approaches to group hydrographs, mostly based on a similarity measure - which have previously only been used in local-scale studies, can be found in the literature. These are tested alongside different global feature extraction techniques. The resulting classifications are then compared to a visual "expert assessment"-based classification which serves as a reference. A ranking of the classification methods is carried out and differences shown. Selected groups from the classifications are related to geological descriptors. Here we present the most promising results from a comparison of classifications based on series correlation, different series distances and series features, such as the coefficients of the discrete Fourier transform and the intrinsic mode functions of empirical mode decomposition. Additionally, we show examples of classes corresponding to geological descriptors. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2015. Methods for assessing hydrogeological similarity and for classification of groundwater systems on the regional scale, EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria.

Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Skøien, Jon O.; Kiang, Julie E.

2013-01-01

In the United States, estimation of flood frequency quantiles at ungauged locations has been largely based on regional regression techniques that relate measurable catchment descriptors to flood quantiles. More recently, spatial interpolation techniques of point data have been shown to be effective for predicting streamflow statistics (i.e., flood flows and low-flow indices) in ungauged catchments. Literature reports successful applications of two techniques, canonical kriging, CK (or physiographical-space-based interpolation, PSBI), and topological kriging, TK (or top-kriging). CK performs the spatial interpolation of the streamflow statistic of interest in the two-dimensional space of catchment descriptors. TK predicts the streamflow statistic along river networks taking both the catchment area and nested nature of catchments into account. It is of interest to understand how these spatial interpolation methods compare with generalized least squares (GLS) regression, one of the most common approaches to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. By means of a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the performance of CK and TK was compared to GLS regression equations developed for the prediction of 10, 50, 100 and 500 yr floods for 61 streamgauges in the southeast United States. TK substantially outperforms GLS and CK for the study area, particularly for large catchments. The performance of TK over GLS highlights an important distinction between the treatments of spatial correlation when using regression-based or spatial interpolation methods to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. The analysis also shows that coupling TK with CK slightly improves the performance of TK; however, the improvement is marginal when compared to the improvement in performance over GLS.

Flood Simulation based on ArcGIS in the Ungauged Area from Fugu to Wubao of the middle Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Shuangyan; Yan, Yiqi; Jiang, Xinhui

2017-12-01

The Qingliangsigou and Jialuhe in the middle Yellow River are selected as the typical tributaries, history flood data in 1980-2013 and Horton infiltration capacity curve are used to calculate the stable infiltration rate and establish the model of runoff yield and concentration, the parameters are calibrated and applied in the ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao. The study area is divided into 20 units based on ArcGIS, Muskingum method parameters in each unit are calibrated, and typical floods of ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao are simulated. The results show that the simulation effects are good: the average error of peak time is about -0.4h, the error of peak discharge is in the forecasting allowable range, and the deterministic coefficient is 0.66.

Using an integrated approach between hydrological and crop models to assess surface water balance in ungauged basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negm, Amro; D'Agostino, Daniela; Lamaddalena, Nicola; Bacchi, Baldassare; Iacobellis, Vito

2013-04-01

In the last decades hydrological models have been extensively used in research fields in order to improve water balance assessment and to support integrated water resources management by quantifying the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. Due to complexity of the physical system, the mathematical models can generally represent and simulate only the basic components of the system. On the other hand, calibration and validation processes of the hydrological models in ungauged basins are still complex tasks, due to the lack of reliable methods and the uncertainty in representing the hydrological processes and the physical features of a basin. Therefore, in order to practically apply model's results, there is a continuous needing to assess their accuracy through the calibration and validation processes at gauged sites. In this context, an integrated approach is presented that couples a semi-distributed hydrological model called Distributed model for Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Antecedent soil Moisture simulation (DREAM) with the FAO's Crop Water Productivity Simulation Model (AQUACROP). DREAM uses rainfall, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and potential evapotranspiration as inputs and streamflow, infiltration, real evapotranspiration, subsurface flow and deep percolation as outputs. Soil moisture content is accounted for as an internal variable. The simulations were done for Lama San Giorgio, a basin located in a wadi area in the central part of Apulia region (Southern Italy) for the period 2001-2005 and the meadow is mainly covered by durum wheat. According to ACLA2 project survey (Caliandro et al., 2005), the depth of the soil upper layers is about 80 cm. Calibration and validation of the DREAM model were carried out by assessing an accurate estimation of soil water content using AQUACROP model which is a more detailed model in terms of soil water dynamics. Instead, one of the most significant features of DREAM model is the evaluation of lateral flow exchanges by means of a redistribution function weighted by the wetness index. The calibration process was done by adjusting a specific parameter of the water balance, the subsurface flow (through a subsurface flow coefficient C), by exploiting the results of soil moisture content provided by AQUACROP model. Then, the outputs of daily soil water content obtained by DREAM model were compared with the estimations of soil behaviour provided by the AQUACROP model. The simulations were done for a certain number of cells in the study area, for different years. The chosen factors were used to obtain an average value of C in time and space, which in this study is equal to 0.5. Finally, the results of the DREAM model in terms of evapotranspiration provided a satisfactory approximation of those obtained by AQUACROP model, while the Canopy Cover, an output of AQUACROP, was compared with the LAI used as input for the DREAM model.

A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

2016-04-01

Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate flood risk statistical characterization, the proposed procedure could be applied straightforward outside the national borders, particularly in areas with similar geo-environmental settings.

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2012-01-01

An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

Rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites using satellite precipitation products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-11-01

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their impacts on hydrologic systems and society are critical considerations in the design and management of a large number of water resources projects. As precipitation records are often limited or unavailable at many sites, it is essential to develop better methods for regional estimation of extreme rainfall at these partially-gauged or ungauged sites. In this study, an innovative method for regional rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites is presented. The new method (hereafter, this is called the RRFA-S) is based on corrected annual maximum series obtained from a satellite precipitation product (e.g., PERSIANN-CDR). The probability matching method (PMM) is used here for bias correction to match the CDF of satellite-based precipitation data with the gauged data. The RRFA-S method was assessed through a comparative study with the traditional index flood method using the available annual maximum series of daily rainfall in two different regions in USA (11 sites in Colorado and 18 sites in California). The leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to represent the ungauged site condition. Results of this numerical application have found that the quantile estimates obtained from the new approach are more accurate and more robust than those given by the traditional index flood method.

Ensuring the consistancy of Flow Direction Curve reconstructions: the 'quantile solidarity' approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poncelet, Carine; Andreassian, Vazken; Oudin, Ludovic

2015-04-01

Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) are a hydrologic tool describing the distribution of streamflows at a catchment outlet. FDCs are usually used for calibration of hydrological models, managing water quality and classifying catchments, among others. For gauged catchments, empirical FDCs can be computed from streamflow records. For ungauged catchments, on the other hand, FDCs cannot be obtained from streamflow records and must therefore be obtained in another manner, for example through reconstructions. Regression-based reconstructions are methods relying on the evaluation of quantiles separately from catchments' attributes (climatic or physical features).The advantage of this category of methods is that it is informative about the processes and it is non-parametric. However, the large number of parameters required can cause unwanted artifacts, typically reconstructions that do not always produce increasing quantiles. In this paper we propose a new approach named Quantile Solidarity (QS), which is applied under strict proxy-basin test conditions (Klemes, 1986) to a set of 600 French catchments. Half of the catchments are considered as gauged and used to calibrate the regression and compute residuals of the regression. The QS approach consists in a three-step regionalization scheme, which first links quantile values to physical descriptors, then reduces the number of regression parameters and finally exploits the spatial correlation of the residuals. The innovation is the utilisation of the parameters continuity across the quantiles to dramatically reduce the number of parameters. The second half of catchment is used as an independent validation set over which we show that the QS approach ensures strictly growing FDC reconstructions in ungauged conditions. Reference: V. KLEMEŠ (1986) Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31:1, 13-24

Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

2017-12-01

Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS's model outputs as well as empirically generated flow data for their use in water resources management decisions. PRMS is also being used to better understand the streamflow patterns in the San Antonio Creek watershed for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions as the creek is generally dry between late Spring and early Fall.

Prediction of hydrographs and flow-duration curves in almost ungauged catchments: Which runoff measurements are most informative for model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Sandra; Viviroli, Daniel; Seibert, Jan

2017-11-01

Applications of runoff models usually rely on long and continuous runoff time series for model calibration. However, many catchments around the world are ungauged and estimating runoff for these catchments is challenging. One approach is to perform a few runoff measurements in a previously fully ungauged catchment and to constrain a runoff model by these measurements. In this study we investigated the value of such individual runoff measurements when taken at strategic points in time for applying a bucket-type runoff model (HBV) in ungauged catchments. Based on the assumption that a limited number of runoff measurements can be taken, we sought the optimal sampling strategy (i.e. when to measure the streamflow) to obtain the most informative data for constraining the runoff model. We used twenty gauged catchments across the eastern US, made the assumption that these catchments were ungauged, and applied different runoff sampling strategies. All tested strategies consisted of twelve runoff measurements within one year and ranged from simply using monthly flow maxima to a more complex selection of observation times. In each case the twelve runoff measurements were used to select 100 best parameter sets using a Monte Carlo calibration approach. Runoff simulations using these 'informed' parameter sets were then evaluated for an independent validation period in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the hydrograph and the mean absolute relative error of the flow-duration curve. Model performance measures were normalized by relating them to an upper and a lower benchmark representing a well-informed and an uninformed model calibration. The hydrographs were best simulated with strategies including high runoff magnitudes as opposed to the flow-duration curves that were generally better estimated with strategies that captured low and mean flows. The choice of a sampling strategy covering the full range of runoff magnitudes enabled hydrograph and flow-duration curve simulations close to a well-informed model calibration. The differences among such strategies covering the full range of runoff magnitudes were small indicating that the exact choice of a strategy might be less crucial. Our study corroborates the information value of a small number of strategically selected runoff measurements for simulating runoff with a bucket-type runoff model in almost ungauged catchments.

Earth observation based assessment of the water production and water consumption of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M.; Karimi, Poolad; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Duan, Zheng; Senay, Gabriel; Muthuwatte, Lal; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The increasing competition for water resources requires a better understanding of flows, fluxes, stocks, and the services and benefits related to water consumption. This paper explains how public domain Earth Observation data based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Second Generation Meteosat (MSG), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and various altimeter measurements can be used to estimate net water production (rainfall (P) > evapotranspiration (ET)) and net water consumption (ET > P) of Nile Basin agro-ecosystems. Rainfall data from TRMM and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) RainFall Estimates (RFE) products were used in conjunction with actual evapotranspiration from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) and ETLook models. Water flows laterally between net water production and net water consumption areas as a result of runoff and withdrawals. This lateral flow between the 15 sub-basins of the Nile was estimated, and partitioned into stream flow and non-stream flow using the discharge data. A series of essential water metrics necessary for successful integrated water management are explained and computed. Net water withdrawal estimates (natural and humanly instigated) were assumed to be the difference between net rainfall (Pnet) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) and some first estimates of withdrawals—without flow meters—are provided. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems withdraw large volumes of groundwater, which exceed water withdrawals for the irrigation sector. There is a strong need for the development of more open-access Earth Observation databases, especially for information related to actual ET. The fluxes, flows and storage changes presented form the basis for a global framework to describe monthly and annual water accounts in ungauged river basins.

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Optimization of a hydrometric network extension using specific flow, kriging and simulated annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebbi, Afef; Kebaili Bargaoui, Zoubeida; Abid, Nesrine; da Conceição Cunha, Maria

2017-12-01

In hydrometric stations, water levels are continuously observed and discharge rating curves are constantly updated to achieve accurate river levels and discharge observations. An adequate spatial distribution of hydrological gauging stations presents a lot of interest in linkage with the river regime characterization, water infrastructures design, water resources management and ecological survey. Due to the increase of riverside population and the associated flood risk, hydrological networks constantly need to be developed. This paper suggests taking advantage of kriging approaches to improve the design of a hydrometric network. The context deals with the application of an optimization approach using ordinary kriging and simulated annealing (SA) in order to identify the best locations to install new hydrometric gauges. The task at hand is to extend an existing hydrometric network in order to estimate, at ungauged sites, the average specific annual discharge which is a key basin descriptor. This methodology is developed for the hydrometric network of the transboundary Medjerda River in the North of Tunisia. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is adopted to delineate basin limits and centroids. The latter are adopted to assign the location of basins in kriging development. Scenarios where the size of an existing 12 stations network is alternatively increased by 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 new station(s) are investigated using geo-regression and minimization of the variance of kriging errors. The analysis of the optimized locations from a scenario to another shows a perfect conformity with respect to the location of the new sites. The new locations insure a better spatial coverage of the study area as seen with the increase of both the average and the maximum of inter-station distances after optimization. The optimization procedure selects the basins that insure the shifting of the mean drainage area towards higher specific discharges.

Principal facts for gravity data collected in the southern Albuquerque Basin area and a regional compilation, central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillespie, Cindy L.; Grauch, V.J.S.; Oshetski, Kim; Keller, Gordon R.

2000-01-01

Principal facts for 156 new gravity stations in the southern Albuquerque basin are presented. These data fill a gap in existing data coverage. The compilation of the new data and two existing data sets into a regional data set of 5562 stations that cover the Albuquerque basin and vicinity is also described. Bouguer anomaly and isostatic residual gravity data for this regional compilation are available in digital form from ftp://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/pub/openfile- reports/ofr-00-490.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi:10.1002/qj.2463

Estimation of Flow Duration Curve for Ungauged Catchments using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Map Correlation Method: A Case Study from Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Dogulu, N.

2015-12-01

In Turkey the experience and data required for a hydrological model setup is limited and very often not available. Moreover there are many ungauged catchments where there are also many planned projects aimed at utilization of water resources including development of existing hydropower potential. This situation makes runoff prediction at locations with lack of data and ungauged locations where small hydropower plants, reservoirs, etc. are planned an increasingly significant challenge and concern in the country. Flow duration curves have many practical applications in hydrology and integrated water resources management. Estimation of flood duration curve (FDC) at ungauged locations is essential, particularly for hydropower feasibility studies and selection of the installed capacities. In this study, we test and compare the performances of two methods for estimating FDCs in the Western Black Sea catchment, Turkey: (i) FDC based on Map Correlation Method (MCM) flow estimates. MCM is a recently proposed method (Archfield and Vogel, 2010) which uses geospatial information to estimate flow. Flow measurements of stream gauging stations nearby the ungauged location are the only data requirement for this method. This fact makes MCM very attractive for flow estimation in Turkey, (ii) Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a data-driven method which is used to relate FDC to a number of variables representing catchment and climate characteristics. However, it`s ease of implementation makes it very useful for practical purposes. Both methods use easily collectable data and are computationally efficient. Comparison of the results is realized based on two different measures: the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value. Ref: Archfield, S. A., and R. M. Vogel (2010), Map correlation method: Selection of a reference streamgage to estimate daily streamflow at ungaged catchments, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10513, doi:10.1029/2009WR008481.

A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

2018-03-01

Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the validated model with those reported observations can provide guidance for the decision support system (DSS) to maintain EF range in an ungauged tidal river.

Estimation of streamflow, base flow, and nitrate-nitrogen loads in Iowa using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

2005-01-01

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest. (JAWRA) (Copyright ?? 2005).

The NASA/USDA Reservoir and Lake Monitor: Present and Future Capabilities and Water Resources Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.; Reynolds, C. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Ricko, M.

2013-12-01

The USDA/NASA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM) provides satellite-based surface water level products for large reservoirs and lakes around the world. It utilizes a suite of NASA/CNES and ESA radar altimetry data sets and outputs near real time and archival products via a web interface. Several stakeholders utilize the products for applications that focus on water resources management and natural hazards mitigation, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The satellite data sets prove particularly useful in un-gauged or poorly gauged basins where in situ data is sparse. Here, we present water-level product examples based on data from the NASA/CNES Jason-2/OSTM mission, and the new ISRO/CNES SARAL mission. We also demonstrate product application from the viewpoint of various end users who have interests ranging from crop production and fisheries, to regional security and climate change. In the current phase of the program the team is also looking to the potential of additional lake/reservoir products such as areal extent (NASA/MODIS), lake volume variations (combined altimetry/imagery), and model-derived water levels, that will enhance the GRLM via improved observation and prediction, and provide a more global lake basin monitoring capability. Surface water level variations for Lake Nasser.

Development of a time-stepping sediment budget model for assessing land use impacts in large river basins.

PubMed

Wilkinson, S N; Dougall, C; Kinsey-Henderson, A E; Searle, R D; Ellis, R J; Bartley, R

2014-01-15

The use of river basin modelling to guide mitigation of non-point source pollution of wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters has become widespread. To assess and simulate the impacts of alternate land use or climate scenarios on river washload requires modelling techniques that represent sediment sources and transport at the time scales of system response. Building on the mean-annual SedNet model, we propose a new D-SedNet model which constructs daily budgets of fine sediment sources, transport and deposition for each link in a river network. Erosion rates (hillslope, gully and streambank erosion) and fine sediment sinks (floodplains and reservoirs) are disaggregated from mean annual rates based on daily rainfall and runoff. The model is evaluated in the Burdekin basin in tropical Australia, where policy targets have been set for reducing sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon from grazing and cropping land. D-SedNet predicted annual loads with similar performance to that of a sediment rating curve calibrated to monitored suspended sediment concentrations. Relative to a 22-year reference load time series at the basin outlet derived from a dynamic general additive model based on monitoring data, D-SedNet had a median absolute error of 68% compared with 112% for the rating curve. RMS error was slightly higher for D-SedNet than for the rating curve due to large relative errors on small loads in several drought years. This accuracy is similar to existing agricultural system models used in arable or humid environments. Predicted river loads were sensitive to ground vegetation cover. We conclude that the river network sediment budget model provides some capacity for predicting load time-series independent of monitoring data in ungauged basins, and for evaluating the impact of land management on river sediment load time-series, which is challenging across large regions in data-poor environments. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Framework for quantifying flow and sediment yield to diagnose and solve the aggradation problem of an ungauged catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamang, Sagar Kumar; Song, Wenjun; Fang, Xing; Vasconcelos, Jose; Anderson, J. Brian

2018-06-01

Estimating sediment deposition in a stream, a standard procedure for dealing with aggradation problem is complicated in an ungauged catchment due to the absence of necessary flow data. A serious aggradation problem within an ungauged catchment in Alabama, USA, blocked the conveyance of a bridge, reducing the clearance under the bridge from several feet to a couple of inches. A study of historical aerial imageries showed deforestation in the catchment by a significant amount over a period consistent with the first identification of the problem. To further diagnose the aggradation problem, due to the lack of any gauging stations, local rainfall, flow, and sediment measurements were attempted. However, due to the difficulty of installing an area-velocity sensor in an actively aggrading stream, the parameter transfer process for a hydrologic model was adopted to understand/estimate streamflow. Simulated discharge combined with erosion parameters of MUSLE (modified universal soil loss equation) helped in the estimation of sediment yield of the catchment. Sediment yield for the catchment showed a significant increase in recent years. A two-dimensional hydraulic model was developed at the bridge site to examine potential engineering strategies to wash sediments off and mitigate further aggradation. This study is to quantify the increase of sediment yield in an ungauged catchment due to land cover changes and other contributing factors and develop strategies and recommendations for preventing future aggradation in the vicinity of the bridge.

How can streamflow and climate-landscape data be used to estimate baseflow mean response time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runrun; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Zhicai; Soulsby, Chris; Gao, Man

2018-02-01

Mean response time (MRT) is a metric describing the propagation of catchment hydraulic behavior that reflects both hydro-climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. To provide a comprehensive understanding of catchment response over a longer-time scale for hydraulic processes, the MRT function for baseflow generation was derived using an instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model that describes the subsurface response to effective rainfall inputs. IUH parameters were estimated based on the "match test" between the autocorrelation function (ACFs) derived from the filtered base flow time series and from the IUH parameters, under the GLUE framework. Regionalization of MRT was conducted using estimates and hydroclimate-landscape indices in 22 sub-basins of the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) in the Loess Plateau of northwest China. Results indicate there is strong equifinality in determination of the best parameter sets but the median values of the MRT estimates are relatively stable in the acceptable range of the parameters. MRTs vary markedly over the studied sub-basins, ranging from tens of days to more than a year. Climate, topography and geomorphology were identified as three first-order controls on recharge-baseflow response processes. Human activities involving the cultivation of permanent crops may elongate the baseflow MRT and hence increase the dynamic storage. Cross validation suggests the model can be used to estimate MRTs in ungauged catchments in similar regions of throughout the Loess Plateau. The proposed method provides a systematic approach for MRT estimation and regionalization in terms of hydroclimate and catchment characteristics, which is helpful in the sustainable water resources utilization and ecological protection in the Loess Plateau.

Informing a hydrological model of the Ogooué with multi-mission remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, Cecile M. M.; Nielsen, Karina; Tøttrup, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2018-02-01

Remote sensing provides a unique opportunity to inform and constrain a hydrological model and to increase its value as a decision-support tool. In this study, we applied a multi-mission approach to force, calibrate and validate a hydrological model of the ungauged Ogooué river basin in Africa with publicly available and free remote sensing observations. We used a rainfall-runoff model based on the Budyko framework coupled with a Muskingum routing approach. We parametrized the model using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (SRTM DEM) and forced it using precipitation from two satellite-based rainfall estimates, FEWS-RFE (Famine Early Warning System rainfall estimate) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 v.7, and temperature from ECMWF ERA-Interim. We combined three different datasets to calibrate the model using an aggregated objective function with contributions from (1) historical in situ discharge observations from the period 1953-1984 at six locations in the basin, (2) radar altimetry measurements of river stages by Envisat and Jason-2 at 12 locations in the basin and (3) GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) total water storage change (TWSC). Additionally, we extracted CryoSat-2 observations throughout the basin using a Sentinel-1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) imagery water mask and used the observations for validation of the model. The use of new satellite missions, including Sentinel-1 and CryoSat-2, increased the spatial characterization of river stage. Throughout the basin, we achieved good agreement between observed and simulated discharge and the river stage, with an RMSD between simulated and observed water amplitudes at virtual stations of 0.74 m for the TRMM-forced model and 0.87 m for the FEWS-RFE-forced model. The hydrological model also captures overall total water storage change patterns, although the amplitude of storage change is generally underestimated. By combining hydrological modeling with multi-mission remote sensing from 10 different satellite missions, we obtain new information on an otherwise unstudied basin. The proposed model is the best current baseline characterization of hydrological conditions in the Ogooué in light of the available observations.

The combined use of Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for loss estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Romano, N.

2012-12-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model widely used to estimate losses and direct runoff from a given rainfall event, but its use is not appropriate at sub-daily time resolution. To overcome this drawback, a mixed procedure, referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), was recently developed including the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model and aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. The main concept of the proposed mixed procedure is to use the initial abstraction and the total volume given by the SCS-CN to calibrate the Green-Ampt soil hydraulic conductivity parameter. The procedure is here applied on a real case study and a sensitivity analysis concerning the remaining parameters is presented; results show that CN4GA approach is an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess analysis at sub-daily time resolution, in particular for ungauged basin lacking of discharge observations.

Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

2013-06-01

This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins) and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950-2000 and allows for examining impacts of population, climate and land use change as well as land and water management interventions on hydrology. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural to urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined scenarios of: climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon and discuss the likely pathways for adaptation to and mitigation against their worst effects. See Mulligan et al. (2013) for a similar analysis for the entire Amazon Basin.

Map showing sediment isopachs in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific continental margin, Point Conception to Point Loma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1992-01-01

See Also "U.S. Pacific West Coast Field Activities" (Paskevich and others, 2011; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/htmldocs/pc/pc_overview.html). Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA, Oc-gok Basin in Republic of Korea and the haor region of Bangladesh. Keywords: flood index, flood risk management, flood characteristics

Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Up-scaling from physically based numerical simulations at hillslope scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ali, Melkamu; Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi

2014-07-19

Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall-runoff response, especially in steep forested regions. However; its contribution is poorly represented in current generation of land surface hydrological models (LSMs) and catchment-scale rainfall-runoff models. The lack of physical basis of common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global models. This paper is aimed at deriving physically based parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship relating to subsurface flow. These parameterizations are derived through a two-step up-scaling procedure: firstly, through simulations with a physically based (Darcian) subsurfacemore » flow model for idealized three dimensional rectangular hillslopes, accounting for within-hillslope random heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties, and secondly, through subsequent up-scaling to the catchment scale by accounting for between-hillslope and within-catchment heterogeneity of topographic features (e.g., slope). These theoretical simulation results produced parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship in terms of soil hydraulic properties, topographic slope and their heterogeneities, which were consistent with results of previous studies. Yet, regionalization of the resulting storage-discharge relations across 50 actual catchments in eastern United States, and a comparison of the regionalized results with equivalent empirical results obtained on the basis of analysis of observed streamflow recession curves, revealed a systematic inconsistency. It was found that the difference between the theoretical and empirically derived results could be explained, to first order, by climate in the form of climatic aridity index. This suggests a possible codependence of climate, soils, vegetation and topographic properties, and suggests that subsurface flow parameterization needed for ungauged locations must account for both the physics of flow in heterogeneous landscapes, and the co-dependence of soil and topographic properties with climate, including possibly the mediating role of vegetation.« less

Determining spatially discretized surface flow and baseflow in the context of climate change and water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimonet, M.; Oudin, L.; Rabouille, C.; Garnier, J.; Silvestre, M.; Vautard, R.; Thieu, V.

2016-12-01

Water quality management of fresh and marine aquatic systems requires modelling tools along the land-ocean continuum in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on nutrient transfer and on potential ecosystem dysfonctioning (e.g. eutrophication, anoxia). In addition to direct effects of climate change on water temperature, it is essential to consider indirect effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrology since nutrient transfers are particularly sensitive to the partition of streamflow between surface flow and baseflow. Yet, the determination of surface flow and baseflow, their spatial repartition on drainage basins, and their relative potential evolution under climate change remains challenging. In this study, we developed a generic approach to determine 10-day surface flow and baseflow using a regionalized hydrological model applied at a high spatial resolution (unitary catchments of area circa 10km²). Streamflow data at gauged basins were used to calibrate hydrological model parameters that were then applied on neighbor ungauged basins to estimate streamflow at the scale of the French territory. The proposed methodology allowed representing spatialized surface flow and baseflow that are consistent with climatic and geomorphological settings. The methodology was then used to determine the effect of climate change on the spatial repartition of surface flow and baseflow on the Seine drainage bassin. Results showed large discrepancies of both the amount and the spatial repartition of changes of surface flow and baseflow according to the several GCM and RCM used to derive projected climatic forcing. Consequently, it is expected that the impact of climate change on nutrient transfer might also be quite heterogeneous for the Seine River. This methodology could be applied in any drainage basin where at least several gauged hydrometric stations are available. The estimated surface flow and baseflow can then be used in hydro-ecological models in order to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of climate change on nutrient transfers and potential ecosystem dysfunctioning along the land-ocean continuum.

Comparison of long-term evolutionary trajectories of two ephemeral channels after channel-forming extraordinary floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotsari, Eliisa; House, Kyle; Alho, Petteri; Baker, Victor

2017-04-01

Analyses of the evolutionary trajectories of braided ephemeral channels enable identification of trends, magnitudes and periodicity of the processes that affect the channels. In addition to infrequent great floods, relatively frequent, small discharge events have been shown to be important for the evolution of ephemeral channels. However, evolutionary trajectories have rarely been studied in small ephemeral rivers, that predominantly transport gravel, cobles and boulders. Ephemeral tributary channels typify the Colorado River basin (USA), and two examples are Bronco Creek and Eldorado Canyon. These streams experienced extraordinary great floods in 1971 and 1974 respectively, and they are comparable to each other in both basin size, and climatic conditions. Annual precipitation is less than 50 cm, and the average temperature of each month is above 7°C. More importantly, earlier studies have shown similarities in the hydraulics and geomorphic characteristics of the extraordinary floods, which removed the pre-flood bar and braiding structure from the channels. Thus, these two channels are ideal for comparisons of their evolutionary trajecties. Moreover, the availability of high-resolutions aerial photographs for both channels since 1954 allowed for decadal analyses. Our research has analyzed and compared the long-term evolutionary trajectories of the two ephemeral channels within Colorado River Basin based on series of aerial photos and digital elevation models. (1) We detected the development and adjustment of braiding since the extraordinary floods. The detected parameters include the braiding index, bar area and number, channel area and width, confluence number and density, and the proportion of inactive and active areas. (2) We also analyzed the time required for the ephemeral river system to evolve back to its prior state before the high magnitude floods. Finally, (3) we analyzed whether these temporal changes in channel evolution can reveal new insights as to climatic and environmental conditions for these un-gauged basins.

Evaluating the impact of lower resolutions of digital elevation model on rainfall-runoff modeling for ungauged catchments.

PubMed

Ghumman, Abul Razzaq; Al-Salamah, Ibrahim Saleh; AlSaleem, Saleem Saleh; Haider, Husnain

2017-02-01

Geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) usually uses geomorphologic parameters of catchment estimated from digital elevation model (DEM) for rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged watersheds with limited data. Higher resolutions (e.g., 5 or 10 m) of DEM play an important role in the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models; however, such resolutions are expansive to obtain and require much greater efforts and time for preparation of inputs. In this research, a modeling framework is developed to evaluate the impact of lower resolutions (i.e., 30 and 90 m) of DEM on the accuracy of Clark GIUH model. Observed rainfall-runoff data of a 202-km 2 catchment in a semiarid region was used to develop direct runoff hydrographs for nine rainfall events. Geographical information system was used to process both the DEMs. Model accuracy and errors were estimated by comparing the model results with the observed data. The study found (i) high model efficiencies greater than 90% for both the resolutions, and (ii) that the efficiency of Clark GIUH model does not significantly increase by enhancing the resolution of the DEM from 90 to 30 m. Thus, it is feasible to use lower resolutions (i.e., 90 m) of DEM in the estimation of peak runoff in ungauged catchments with relatively less efforts. Through sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations), the kinematic wave parameter and stream length ratio are found to be the most significant parameters in velocity and peak flow estimations, respectively; thus, they need to be carefully estimated for calculation of direct runoff in ungauged watersheds using Clark GIUH model.

Improving Flood Predictions in Data-Scarce Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimal, Solomon; Zanardo, Stefano; Rafique, Farhat; Hilberts, Arno

2017-04-01

Flood modeling methodology at Risk Management Solutions Ltd. has evolved over several years with the development of continental scale flood risk models spanning most of Europe, the United States and Japan. Pluvial (rain fed) and fluvial (river fed) flood maps represent the basis for the assessment of regional flood risk. These maps are derived by solving the 1D energy balance equation for river routing and 2D shallow water equation (SWE) for overland flow. The models are run with high performance computing and GPU based solvers as the time taken for simulation is large in such continental scale modeling. These results are validated with data from authorities and business partners, and have been used in the insurance industry for many years. While this methodology has been proven extremely effective in regions where the quality and availability of data are high, its application is very challenging in other regions where data are scarce. This is generally the case for low and middle income countries, where simpler approaches are needed for flood risk modeling and assessment. In this study we explore new methods to make use of modeling results obtained in data-rich contexts to improve predictive ability in data-scarce contexts. As an example, based on our modeled flood maps in data-rich countries, we identify statistical relationships between flood characteristics and topographic and climatic indicators, and test their generalization across physical domains. Moreover, we apply the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)approach to estimate "probable" saturated areas for different return period flood events as functions of basin characteristics. This work falls into the well-established research field of Predictions in Ungauged Basins.

A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

Along-the-net reconstruction of hydropower potential with consideration of anthropic alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoero, A.; Claps, P.; Gallo, E.; Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2014-09-01

Even in regions with mature hydropower development, requirements for stable renewable power sources suggest revision of plans of exploitation of water resources, while taking care of the environmental regulations. Mean Annual Flow (MAF) is a key parameter when trying to represent water availability for hydropower purposes. MAF is usually determined in ungauged basins by means of regional statistical analysis. For this study a regional estimation method consistent along-the-river network has been developed for MAF estimation; the method uses a multi-regressive approach based on geomorphoclimatic descriptors, and it is applied on 100 gauged basins located in NW Italy. The method has been designed to keep the estimates of mean annual flow congruent at the confluences, by considering only raster-summable explanatory variables. Also, the influence of human alterations in the regional analysis of MAF has been studied: impact due to the presence of existing hydropower plants has been taken into account, restoring the "natural" value of runoff through analytical corrections. To exemplify the representation of the assessment of residual hydropower potential, the model has been applied extensively to two specific mountain watersheds by mapping the estimated mean flow for the basins draining into each pixel of a the DEM-derived river network. Spatial algorithms were developed using the OpenSource Software GRASS GIS and PostgreSQL/PostGIS. Spatial representation of the hydropower potential was obtained using different mean flow vs hydraulic-head relations for each pixel. Final potential indices have been represented and mapped through the Google Earth platform, providing a complete and interactive picture of the available potential, useful for planning and regulation purposes.

Fine-Resolution Modeling of the Santa Cruz and San Pedro River Basins for Climate Change and Riparian System Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Volo, T. J.; Rivera, E. R.; Dominguez, F.; Meixner, T.

2011-12-01

This project is part of a multidisciplinary effort aimed at understanding the impacts of climate variability and change on the ecological services provided by riparian ecosystems in semiarid watersheds of the southwestern United States. Valuing the environmental and recreational services provided by these ecosystems in the future requires a numerical simulation approach to estimate streamflow in ungauged tributaries as well as diffuse and direct recharge to groundwater basins. In this work, we utilize a distributed hydrologic model known as the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the upper Santa Cruz and San Pedro basins with the goal of generating simulated hydrological fields that will be coupled to a riparian groundwater model. With the distributed model, we will evaluate a set of climate change and population scenarios to quantify future conditions in these two river systems and their impacts on flood peaks, recharge events and low flows. Here, we present a model confidence building exercise based on high performance computing (HPC) runs of the tRIBS model in both basins during the period of 1990-2000. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available data across the US-Mexico border on topography, land cover and soils obtained from analysis of remotely-sensed imagery and government databases. Meteorological forcing over the historical period is obtained from a combination of sparse ground networks and weather radar rainfall estimates. We then focus on a comparison between simulation runs using ground-based forcing to cases where the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model is used to specify the historical conditions. Two spatial resolutions are considered from the WRF model fields - a coarse (35-km) and a downscaled (10- km) forcing. Comparisons will focus on the distribution of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation and recharge and assess the value of the WRF coarse and downscaled products. These results provide confidence in the model application and a measure of modeling uncertainty that will help set the foundation for forthcoming climate change studies.

Regional regression of flood characteristics employing historical information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

1987-01-01

Streamflow gauging networks provide hydrologic information for use in estimating the parameters of regional regression models. The regional regression models can be used to estimate flood statistics, such as the 100 yr peak, at ungauged sites as functions of drainage basin characteristics. A recent innovation in regional regression is the use of a generalized least squares (GLS) estimator that accounts for unequal station record lengths and sample cross correlation among the flows. However, this technique does not account for historical flood information. A method is proposed here to adjust this generalized least squares estimator to account for possible information about historical floods available at some stations in a region. The historical information is assumed to be in the form of observations of all peaks above a threshold during a long period outside the systematic record period. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was performed to compare the GLS estimator adjusted for historical floods with the unadjusted GLS estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator. Results indicate that using the GLS estimator adjusted for historical information significantly improves the regression model. ?? 1987.

Toward economic flood loss characterization via hazard simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Cunha, Luciana K.; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Smith, James A.

2016-08-01

Among all natural disasters, floods have historically been the primary cause of human and economic losses around the world. Improving flood risk management requires a multi-scale characterization of the hazard and associated losses—the flood loss footprint. But this is typically not available in a precise and timely manner, yet. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel and multidisciplinary approach which relies on a computationally efficient hydrological model that simulates streamflow for scales ranging from small creeks to large rivers. We adopt a normalized index, the flood peak ratio (FPR), to characterize flood magnitude across multiple spatial scales. The simulated FPR is then shown to be a key statistical driver for associated economic flood losses represented by the number of insurance claims. Importantly, because it is based on a simulation procedure that utilizes generally readily available physically-based data, our flood simulation approach has the potential to be broadly utilized, even for ungauged and poorly gauged basins, thus providing the necessary information for public and private sector actors to effectively reduce flood losses and save lives.

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

2017-04-01

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

Soil Moisture Content Estimation Based on Sentinel-1 and Auxiliary Earth Observation Products. A Hydrological Approach

PubMed Central

Alexakis, Dimitrios D.; Mexis, Filippos-Dimitrios K.; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

2017-01-01

A methodology for elaborating multi-temporal Sentinel-1 and Landsat 8 satellite images for estimating topsoil Soil Moisture Content (SMC) to support hydrological simulation studies is proposed. After pre-processing the remote sensing data, backscattering coefficient, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), thermal infrared temperature and incidence angle parameters are assessed for their potential to infer ground measurements of SMC, collected at the top 5 cm. A non-linear approach using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is tested. The methodology is applied in Western Crete, Greece, where a SMC gauge network was deployed during 2015. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using leave-one-out cross validation and sensitivity analysis. ANNs prove to be the most efficient in SMC estimation yielding R2 values between 0.7 and 0.9. The proposed methodology is used to support a hydrological simulation with the HEC-HMS model, applied at the Keramianos basin which is ungauged for SMC. Results and model sensitivity highlight the contribution of combining Sentinel-1 SAR and Landsat 8 images for improving SMC estimates and supporting hydrological studies. PMID:28635625

Soil Moisture Content Estimation Based on Sentinel-1 and Auxiliary Earth Observation Products. A Hydrological Approach.

PubMed

Alexakis, Dimitrios D; Mexis, Filippos-Dimitrios K; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini K; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2017-06-21

A methodology for elaborating multi-temporal Sentinel-1 and Landsat 8 satellite images for estimating topsoil Soil Moisture Content (SMC) to support hydrological simulation studies is proposed. After pre-processing the remote sensing data, backscattering coefficient, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), thermal infrared temperature and incidence angle parameters are assessed for their potential to infer ground measurements of SMC, collected at the top 5 cm. A non-linear approach using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is tested. The methodology is applied in Western Crete, Greece, where a SMC gauge network was deployed during 2015. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using leave-one-out cross validation and sensitivity analysis. ANNs prove to be the most efficient in SMC estimation yielding R² values between 0.7 and 0.9. The proposed methodology is used to support a hydrological simulation with the HEC-HMS model, applied at the Keramianos basin which is ungauged for SMC. Results and model sensitivity highlight the contribution of combining Sentinel-1 SAR and Landsat 8 images for improving SMC estimates and supporting hydrological studies.

Hydrological similarity approach and rainfall satellite utilization for mini hydro power dam basic design (case study on the ungauged catchment at West Borneo, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakoso, W. G.; Murtilaksono, K.; Tarigan, S. D.; Purwanto, Y. J.

2018-05-01

An approach on flow duration and flood design estimation on the ungauged catchment with no rainfall and discharge data availability was been being develop with hydrological modelling including rainfall run off model implemented with watershed characteristic dataset. Near real time Rainfall data from multi satellite platform e.g. TRMM can be utilized for regionalization approach on the ungauged catchment. Watershed hydrologically similarity analysis were conducted including all of the major watershed in Borneo which was predicted to be similar with the Nanga Raun Watershed. It was found that a satisfactory hydrological model calibration could be achieved using catchment weighted time series of TRMM daily rainfall data, performed on nearby catchment deemed to be sufficiently similar to Nanga Raun catchment in hydrological terms. Based on this calibration, rainfall runoff parameters were then transferred to a model. Relatively reliable flow duration curve and extreme discharge value estimation were produced with reasonable several limitation. Further approach may be performed in order to deal with the primary limitations inherent in the hydrological and statistical analysis, especially to give prolongation to the availability of the rainfall and climate data with some novel approach like downscaling of global climate model.

Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Steeves, Peter A.; Guthrie, John D.; Ries, Kernell G.

2013-01-01

Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals) at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity-based regionalization concept is not applicable.

Scientific support to prescribed underburning in southern Europe: What do we know?

PubMed

Fernandes, Paulo M

2018-07-15

Prescribed burning is a technically demanding and usually highly scrutinized and debated practice. Barriers of various natures have constrained the development of prescribed burning in forests (PUB) in southern Europe, with insufficient research and outreach among the contributing factors. This paper synthesizes PUB knowledge in the region and identifies research needs. PUB research in the western Mediterranean basin was fostered by international cooperative projects that studied the ecological and management ramifications of low-intensity burning for fire hazard mitigation. Effects of PUB on soil and vegetation are minor and short-lived and regulated through forest floor moisture content, fire intensity, tree resistance to fire, and ignition patterns. Generic burn prescriptions are available and specific burn windows targeting site-specific burn objectives can be developed with the existing software tools. However, the need to increase the depth and breadth of PUB research is apparent. Current knowledge is based upon pine forests, particularly Pinus pinaster, as past research has overlooked hardwoods; was obtained across a limited number of research teams and study sites; and essentially reflects short-term treatments. Fuel consumption by PUB effectively decreases fire potential, but post-treatment fuel dynamics and effects on wildfire spread and severity warrant further study. Future work should devote more attention to the socioeconomic, biodiversity and carbon storage implications of PUB and should expand to encompass cumulative effects and the whole PUB regime and its variation; long-term experiments and monitored management programs are crucial to this end. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newson, A.; See, L.

2005-12-01

Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of an ungauged catchment as inputs to an ANN. It also demonstrated how the ANN Q100 estimates can be used in conjunction with a number of other estimates in order to provide a more accurate and confident estimate of Q100 at an ungauged catchment. This clearly exploits the strengths of existing methods in combination with the latest soft computing tools.

Ponds' water balance and runoff of endorheic watersheds in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gal, Laetitia; Grippa, Manuela; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Peugeot, Christophe

2015-04-01

The Sahel has been characterized by a severe rainfall deficit since the mid-twentieth century, with extreme droughts in the early seventies and again in the early eighties. These droughts have strongly impacted ecosystems, water availability, fodder resources, and populations living in these areas. However, an increase of surface runoff has been observed during the same period, such as higher "summer discharge" of Sahelian's rivers generating local floods, and a general increase in pond's surface in pastoral areas of central and northern Sahel. This behavior, less rain but more surface runoff is generally referred to as the "Sahelian paradox". Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain this paradoxical situation. The leading role of increase in cropped areas, often cited for cultivated Sahel, does not hold for pastoral areas in central and northern Sahel. Processes such as degradation of vegetation subsequent to the most severe drought events, soils erosion and runoff concentration on shallow soils, which generate most of the water ending up in ponds, seem to play an important role. This still needs to be fully understood and quantified. Our study focuses on a model-based approach to better understand the hydrological changes that affected the Agoufou watershed (Gourma, Mali), typical of the central, non-cultivated Sahel. Like most of the Sahelian basins, the Agoufou watershed is ungauged. Therefore we used indirect data to provide the information required to validate a rainfall-runoff model approach. The pond volume was calculated by combining in-situ water level measurements with pond's surface estimations derived by remote sensing. Using the pond's water balance equation, the variations of pond volume combined to estimates of open water bodies' evaporation and infiltration determined an estimation for the runoff supplying the pond. This estimation highlights a spectacular runoff increase over the last sixty years on the Agoufou watershed. The runoff proxy derived for the Agoufou pond is used to evaluate results from the KINEROS2 model (KINematic runoff and EROSion). This model is specifically designed to simulate surface runoff in semi-arid watersheds. It describes the processes of runoff, infiltration and erosion by taking into account land cover and soil characteristics. We show that rain intensity, soil hydrological properties (hydraulic conductivity and Manning's roughness coefficient), contributing source area areas and land use-land cover were the major factors to take into account to correctly simulate runoff over the present period (2006-2010). This will help to simulate the past evolution of the Agoufou watershed and better understand the key mechanisms of the Sahelian paradox in non-cultivated Sahel. Finally, we will discuss the application of the SWOT and Sentinel-2 future satellites, which will provide water level and pond's surface, to obtain large-scale estimates of water balance in ungauged Sahelian basins.

Bridging the Information Gap: Remote Sensing and Micro Hydropower Feasibility in Data-Scarce Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Marc Francois

Access to electricity remains an impediment to development in many parts of the world, particularly in rural areas with low population densities and prohibitive grid extension costs. In that context, community-scale run-of-river hydropower---micro-hydropower---is an attractive local power generation option, particularly in mountainous regions, where appropriate slope and runoff conditions occur. Despite their promise, micro hydropower programs have generally failed to have a significant impact on rural electrification in developing nations. In Nepal, despite very favorable conditions and approximately 50 years of experience, the technology supplies only 4% of the 10 million households that do not have access to the central electricity grid. These poor results point towards a major information gap between technical experts, who may lack the incentives or local knowledge needed to design appropriate systems for rural villages, and local users, who have excellent knowledge of the community but lack technical expertise to design and manage infrastructure. Both groups suffer from a limited basis for evidence-based decision making due to sparse environmental data available to support the technical components of infrastructure design. This dissertation draws on recent advances in remote sensing data, stochastic modeling techniques and open source platforms to bridge that information gap. Streamflow is a key environmental driver of hydropower production that is particularly challenging to model due to its stochastic nature and the complexity of the underlying natural processes. The first part of the dissertation addresses the general challenge of Predicting streamflow in Ungauged Basins (PUB). It first develops an algorithm to optimize the use of rain gauge observations to improve the accuracy of remote sensing precipitation measures. It then derives and validates a process-based model to estimate streamflow distribution in seasonally dry climates using the stochastic nature of rainfall, and proposes a novel geostatistical method to regionalize its parameters across the stream network. Although motivated by the needs of micro hydropower design in Nepal, these techniques represent contributions to the broader international challenge of PUB and can be applied worldwide. The economic drivers of rural electrification are then considered by presenting an econometric technique to estimate the cost function and demand curve of micro hydropower in Nepal. The empirical strategy uses topography-based instrumental variables to identify price elasticities. All developed methods are assembled in a computer tool, along with a search algorithm that uses a digital elevation model to optimize the placement of micro hydropower infrastructure. The tool---Micro Hydro [em]Power---is an open source application that can be accessed and operated on a web-browser (http://mfmul.shinyapps.io/mhpower). Its purpose is to assist local communities in the design and evaluation of micro hydropower alternatives in their locality, while using cost and demand information provided by local users to generate accurate feasibility maps at the national level, thus bridging the information gap.

Verification of concentration time formulae accuracy in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas Ferreira, Pedro; Allasia, Daniel; Herbstrith Froemming, Gabriel; Ribeiro Fontoura, Jessica; Tassi, Rutineia

2016-04-01

The time of concentration (TC) of an urban catchment is a fundamental watershed parameter used to compute the peak discharge and/or in the hydrological simulation of sewer systems. In the lack of hydrological data for its estimative, several empirical formulae are used, however, almost none of them have been verified in Brazil leading to large uncertainties in the correct value. In this light, were tested several formulae such as the proposed by Kirpich (and a modifications of this equation proposed by the National Transport Bureau of Brazil (DNIT)), U.S. Corps. Of Engineers, Pasini, Dooge , Johnstone , Ventura and Ven T Chow as they are used in Brazil. The verification was accomplished against measured data in 5 sub-basins situated in the Dilúvio basin, a semi urbanized watershed that contains the most developed area of the city of Porto Alegre. All the rainfall stations were active in the period from late 1970's until early 1980's due to the existence of Projeto Dilúvio but today, however, only two of them are still in operation. Porto Alegre is the capital and largest city in the Brazilian southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul with a population of approximately 1.6 million inhabitants, the tenth most populous city in the country and the centre of Brazil's fourth largest metropolitan area, with almost 4,5 million inhabitants (IBGE, 2010). The city is situated in a humid subtropical climate with high and regular precipitation throughout the year. Most summer rainfall occurs during thunderstorms and an occasional tropical storm, hurricane or cyclone. The results showed an error of around 70% for half of the formulas, with a tendency to underestimate TC values. Among the tested methods, Johnstone had the best overall result, with an average error of 25%, well far from the second, Dooge, with 43% of average error. The best results were obtained in only one basin, Dilúvio, the largest one, with an area of 25km², with an error of just 3% for Modified Kirpich, and 5% for Dooge . The results show the necessity of more studies in order to help in the selection of TC parameter for ungauged basins in Brazil.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2013-08-01

Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its functionality has been implemented as open-source software for use in a wide range of applications in the field of water resources monitoring and management, such as the demonstration case study outlined in this work.

Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matingo, Thomas; Gumindoga, Webster; Makurira, Hodson

2018-05-01

Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff) and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013-2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD) of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System) daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015-2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized hydrological processes such as flash floods for sub-daily rainfall, because of improved spatial and temporal resolution.

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960–2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006–2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960–2000), the present period (2006–2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050). PMID:28486483

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

PubMed

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000), the present period (2006-2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050).

Streamflow estimation in ungauged basins using remote sensed hydrological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez, Nicolas; Vargas, Ximena

2017-04-01

In several parts of the world the scarcity of streamflow gauging stations produces an important deficit of information, and calibrating these basins remains a challenge for hydrologists. Improvements in remote sensing have provided significant information about hydrological cycle, which can be used to calibrate a hydrological model when streamflow information is not available. Several satellite products related to snow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, among other variables provide essential information about hydrological processes, and can be used to calibrate physically based hydrological models. Despite this useful information, other aspects are unknown like aquifers dimensions or precipitation heterogeneity. We calibrated three snow driven basins in the Coquimbo Region in Northern Chile, using fSCA from MODIS (MOD10 and MYD10) and NDSI from Landsat. We also considered the MOD16 product to estimate evapotranspiration. Soil Moisture from AMSR-E was considered but it was not useful due to the spatial resolution of the product and the high heterogeneity of the terrain. The Cold Regional Hydrological Modal (CHRM) was selected to represent the hydrological processes due to the importance of snow processes which are, by far, the most important in this area, where precipitation falls as snow principally in winter (June to August) and the melting period begins in spring (September) and ends in the beginning of summer (December and January). The inputs used in the model are precipitation, temperature, short wave radiation, wind speed and relative humidity. The meteorological information was obtained from stations available in the area, and distributed spatially using orographic gradients for wind and precipitation and lapse rates for air temperature and dew point temperature. Short wave radiation was computed and corrected by cloud cover data from MODIS. Streamflow data was available but it was not used in the calibration process. The three basins are Cochiguaz river at Peñón (676 km2), Derecho river at Alcohuaz (338 km2) and Toro river in confluence with La Laguna river (468 km2). These sub-basins are part of the Elqui river basins and are located in the Andes Cordillera, Chile. The mean altitude are 3508 (m.a.s.l), 3543 (m.a.s.l) and 3625 (m.a.s.l) respectively. For the calibration period (2002 to 2014), the NSE of the fSCA are 0.85 and 0.87 for Cochiguaz and Derecho rivers. The Toro river was separated in two rivers: Vacas Heladas and Malo. NSE for these two last basins are 0.77 and 0.78. For ET, the analysis relies on the number of pixels inside each basin, but annually, the R2 are 0.62, 0.43, 0.46 and 0.58 for the four sub-basins. Some biases are noticed when ET is analyzed. For streamflow, the NSE were 0.64, 0.34 and 0.08 for Cochiguaz, Derecho and Toro river in the calibration period. Additionally, due to the uncertainty about the aquifers dimensions, a sensitivity analysis was performed.

How snowmelt changed due to climate change in an ungauged catchment on the Tibetan Plateau?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Yao, Zhijun

2017-04-01

Snow variability is an integrated indicator of climate change, and it has important impacts on runoff regimes and water availability in high altitude catchments. Remote sensing techniques can make it possible to quantitatively detect the snow cover changes and associated hydrological effects in those poorly gauged regions. In this study, the spatial-temporal variations of snow cover and snow melting time in the Tuotuo River basin, which is the headwater of the Yangtze River, were evaluated based on satellite information from MODIS snow cover product, and the snow melting equivalent and its contribution to the total runoff and baseflow were estimated by using degree-day model. The results showed that the snow cover percentage and the tendency of snow cover variability increased with rising altitude. From 2000 to 2012, warmer and wetter climate change resulted in an increase of the snow cover area. Since the 1960s, the start time for snow melt has become earlier by 0.9 3 d/10a and the end time of snow melt has become later by 0.6 2.3 d/10a. Under the control of snow cover and snow melting time, the equivalent of snow melting runoff in the Tuotuo River basin has been fluctuating. The average contributions of snowmelt to baseflow and total runoff were 19.6 % and 6.8 %, respectively. Findings from this study will serve as a reference for future research in areas where observational data are deficient and for planning of future water management strategies for the source region of the Yangtze River.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

Monitoring Lake and Reservoir Level: Satellite Observations, Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Adler, R. F.; Carton, J.

2013-12-01

Satellite measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for un-gauged basins and by filling data gaps in gauge records. However, different satellite radar altimeter-derived continental water level products may differ significantly owing to choice of satellites and data processing methods. To explore the impacts of these differences, a direct comparison between three different altimeter-based surface water level estimates (USDA/NASA GRLM, LEGOS and ESA-DMU) will be presented and products validated with lake level gauge time series for lakes and reservoirs of a variety of sizes and conditions. The availability of satellite-based rainfall (i.e., TRMM and GPCP) and satellite-based lake/reservoir levels offers exciting opportunities to estimate and monitor the hydrologic properties of the lake systems. Here, a simple water balance model is utilized to relate net freshwater flux on a catchment basin to lake/reservoir level. Focused on tropical lakes and reservoirs it allows a comparison of the flux to altimetric lake level estimates. The combined use of model, satellite-based rainfall, evaporation information and reanalysis products, can be used to output water-level hindcasts and seasonal future forecasts. Such a tool is fundamental for understanding present-day and future variations in lake/reservoir levels and enabling a better understand of climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales. New model-derived water level estimates of lakes and reservoirs, on regional to global scales, would assist communities with interests in climate studies focusing on extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and be important for water resources management.

Map showing sediment isopachs in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific continental margin, Cape Mendocino to Point Conception

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1993-01-01

Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged UK Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giani, Giulia; Woods, Ross

2017-04-01

The standard regression-based method for estimating the median annual flood in ungauged UK catchments has a high standard error (95% confidence interval is +/- a factor of 2). This is also the dominant source of uncertainty in statistical estimates of the 100-year flood. Similarly large uncertainties have been reported elsewhere. These large uncertainties make it difficult to do reliable flood design estimates for ungauged catchments. If the uncertainty could be reduced, flood protection schemes could be made significantly more cost-effective. Here we report on attempts to develop a new practical method for flood estimation in ungauged UK catchments, by making more use of knowledge about rainfall-runoff processes. Building on recent research on the seasonality of flooding, we first classify more than 1000 UK catchments into groups according to the seasonality of extreme rainfall and floods, and infer possible causal mechanisms for floods (e.g. Berghuijs et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016). For each group we are developing simplified rainfall-runoff-routing relationships (e.g. Viglione et al, Journal of Hydrology, 2010) which can account for spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and flood processes, as well as channel network routing effects. An initial investigation by Viglione et al suggested that the relationship between rainfall amount and flood peak could be summarised through a dimensionless response number that represents the product of the event runoff coefficient and a measure of hydrograph peakedness. Our hypothesis is that this approach is widely applicable, and can be used as the basis for flood estimation. Using subdaily and daily rainfall-runoff data for more than 1000 catchments, we identify a subset of catchments in the west of the UK where floods are generated predominantly in winter through the coincidence of heavy rain and low soil moisture deficits. Floods in these catchments can reliably be simulated with simple rainfall-runoff models, so it is reasonable to expect simple flood estimators. We will report on tests of the several components of the dimensionless response number hypothesis for these catchments.

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast streamflow component is directly derived from the precipitation duration curve through a simple filter model. The fast component of streamflow is considered to be formed by two contributions that are the entire amount of rainfall falling onto the impervious portion of the basin and the excess of rainfall over a fixed threshold, defining heavy rain events, falling onto the permeable portion. The two obtained FDCs are then overlapped, providing a unique non-zero FDC relative to the total streamflow. Finally, once the probability that the river is dry and the non zero FDC are known, the annual FDC of the daily total streamflow is derived applying the theory of total probability. The model is calibrated on a small catchment with ephemeral streamflows using a long period of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements, and it is successively validated in the same basin using two different time periods. The high model performances obtained in both the validation periods, demonstrate how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from a basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins.

Flood regionalization: A hybrid geographic and predictor-variable region-of-influence regression method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, K.; Milly, P.C.D.; Tasker, Gary D.

2007-01-01

To facilitate estimation of streamflow characteristics at an ungauged site, hydrologists often define a region of influence containing gauged sites hydrologically similar to the estimation site. This region can be defined either in geographic space or in the space of the variables that are used to predict streamflow (predictor variables). These approaches are complementary, and a combination of the two may be superior to either. Here we propose a hybrid region-of-influence (HRoI) regression method that combines the two approaches. The new method was applied with streamflow records from 1,091 gauges in the southeastern United States to estimate the 50-year peak flow (Q50). The HRoI approach yielded lower root-mean-square estimation errors and produced fewer extreme errors than either the predictor-variable or geographic region-of-influence approaches. It is concluded, for Q50 in the study region, that similarity with respect to the basin characteristics considered (area, slope, and annual precipitation) is important, but incomplete, and that the consideration of geographic proximity of stations provides a useful surrogate for characteristics that are not included in the analysis. ?? 2007 ASCE.

Assessing the value of variational assimilation of streamflow data into distributed hydrologic models for improved streamflow monitoring and prediction at ungauged and gauged locations in the catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hak Su; Seo, Dong-Jun; Liu, Yuqiong; McKee, Paul; Corby, Robert

2010-05-01

State updating of distributed hydrologic models via assimilation of streamflow data is subject to "overfitting" because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously underdetermined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carried out a set of real-world experiments in which we assimilate streamflow data at interior and/or outlet locations into gridded SAC and kinematic-wave routing models of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM). We used for the experiments nine basins in the southern plains of the U.S. The experiments consist of selectively assimilating streamflow at different gauge locations, outlet and/or interior, and carrying out both dependent and independent validation. To assess the sensitivity of the quality of assimilation-aided streamflow simulation to the reduced dimensionality of the state space, we carried out data assimilation at spatially semi-distributed or lumped scale and by adjusting biases in precipitation and potential evaporation at a 6-hourly or larger scale. In this talk, we present the results and findings.

Palaeoflood hydrology in Europe: towards a better understanding of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benito, G.; Thorndycraft, V. R.; Rico, M.; Sheffer, N.; Enzel, Y.

2003-04-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters in Europe and, in terms of economic damage, costs are increasing spectacularly with time. Flood risk assessment associated with extreme floods is difficult due to the scarcity of hydrological measurements, that rarely go beyond 1000 years, which is clearly not sufficient for flood management in urban and industrial areas. Besides the use of conventional hydrologic data, the pre-instrumental record can be completed from palaeoflood hydrology or from documentary flood information, or through the combined use of both these tools. Recent developments of palaeoflood hydrology in Europe provide (1) major improvements in flood risk assessment, and (2) a better understanding of long-term flood-climate relationships. Palaeoflood hydrology has been successfully applied in large, medium rivers as well as small ungauged mountain drainage basins. Long-term palaeoflood records from Spain and France show that recent extraordinary flooding (causing huge economic damages) are not the largest ones, but that similar or even greater floods occurred several times in the past. In addition, clusters of floods coinciding in time at several European rivers point out to climatic factors as responsible mechanisms, although in recent time flood magnitude can be magnified by increasing human activity.

Map showing depth to basement in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific continental margin, Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1993-01-01

Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

Map showing depth to basement in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific continental margin, Cape Mendocino to Point Conception

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Caccione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1993-01-01

Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

Map showing sediment isopachs in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific Continental Margin, Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1993-01-01

Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

Map showing depth to basement in the deep-sea basins of the Pacific continental margin, Point Conception to Point Loma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, J.V.; Cacchione, D.A.; Drake, D.E.; Edwards, B.D.; Field, M.E.; Hampton, M.A.; Karl, Herman A.; Kenyon, Neil H.; Masson, D.G.; McCulloch, D.S.; Grim, M.S.

1992-01-01

Paskevich, V.F., Wong, F.L., O?Malley, J.J., Stevenson, A.J., and Gutmacher, C.E., 2011, GLORIA sidescan-sonar imagery for parts of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone and adjacent areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010?1332, available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1332/.

NEW STUDIES OF URBAN FLOOD FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1986-01-01

Five reports dealing with flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas in the southeastern United States have been published during the past 2 years by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). These reports are based on data collected in Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; and several cities in Alabama and Tennessee. Each report contains regression equations useful for estimating flood peaks for selected recurrence intervals at ungauged urban sites. A nationwide study of urban flood characteristics by the USGS published in 1983 contains equations for estimating urban peak discharges for ungauged sites. At the time that the nationwide study was conducted, data from only 35 sites in the southeastern United States were available. The five new reports contain data for 88 additional sites. These new data show that the seven-parameter estimating equations developed in the nationwide study are unbiased and have prediction errors less than those described in the nationwide report.

How Does Snow Persistence Relate to Annual Streamflow in Mountain Watersheds of the Western U.S. With Wet Maritime and Dry Continental Climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, John C.; Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.

2018-04-01

With climate warming, many regions are experiencing changes in snow accumulation and persistence. These changes are known to affect streamflow volume, but the magnitude of the effect varies between regions. This research evaluates whether variables derived from remotely sensed snow cover can be used to estimate annual streamflow at the small watershed scale across the western U.S., a region with a wide range of climate types. We compared snow cover variables derived from MODIS, snow persistence (SP), and snow season (SS), to more commonly utilized metrics, snow fraction (fraction of precipitation falling as snow, SF), and peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Each variable represents different information about snow, and this comparison assesses similarities and differences between the snow metrics. Next, we evaluated how two snow variables, SP and SWE, related to annual streamflow (Q) for 119 USGS reference watersheds and examined whether these relationships varied for wet/warm (precipitation surplus) and dry/cold (precipitation deficit) watersheds. Results showed high correlations between all snow variables, but the slopes of these relationships differed between climates, with wet/warm watersheds displaying lower SF and higher SWE for the same SP. In dry/cold watersheds, both SP and SNODAS SWE correlated with Q spatially across all watersheds and over time within individual watersheds. We conclude that SP can be used to map spatial patterns of annual streamflow generation in dry/cold parts of the region. Applying this approach to the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates that 50% of streamflow comes from areas >3,000 masl. If the relationship between SP and Q is similar in other dry/cold regions, this approach could be used to estimate annual streamflow in ungauged basins.

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Land Use Change Impacts to Flows and Hydropower at the Southern Fringe of the Brazilian Amazon: A Regional, Empirical Study of Land-Water-Energy Nexus Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.; Cohn, A.

2014-12-01

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has occurred extensively in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest-savanna transition. Agricultural development-driven LUCC at regional scales can alter surface energy budgets, evapotranspiration (ET) and rainfall; these hydroclimatic changes impact streamflows, and thus hydropower. To date, there is only limited empirical understanding of these complex land-water-energy nexus dynamics, yet understanding is important to developing countries where both agriculture and hydropower are expanding and intensifying. To observe these changes and their interconnections, we synthesize a novel combination of ground network, remotely sensed, and empirically modeled data for LUCC, rainfall, flows, and hydropower potential. We connect the extensive temporal and spatial trends in LUCC occurring from 2000-2012 (and thus observable in the satellite record) to long-term historical flow records and run-of-river hydropower generation potential estimates. Changes in hydrologic condition are observed in terms of dry and wet season moments, extremes, and flow duration curves. Run-of-river hydropower generation potential is modeled at basin gauge points using equation models parameterized with literature-based low-head turbine efficiencies, and simple algorithms establishing optimal head and capacity from elevation and flows, respectively. Regression analyses are used to demonstrate a preliminary causal analysis of LUCC impacts to flow and energy, and discuss extension of the analysis to ungauged basins. The results are transferable to tropical and transitional forest regions worldwide where simultaneous agricultural and hydropower development potentially compete for coupled components of regional water cycles, and where policy makers and planners require an understanding of LUCC impacts to hydroclimate-dependent industries and ecosystems.

Prediction of Ungauged River Basin for Hydro Power Potential and Flood Risk Mitigation; a Case Study at Gin River, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnayake, A. S.

2011-12-01

The most of the primary civilizations of the world emerged in or near river valleys or floodplains. The river channels and floodplains are single hydrologic and geomorphic system. The failure to appreciate the integral connection between floodplains and channel underlies many socioeconomic and environmental problems in river management today. However it is a difficult task of collecting reliable field hydrological data. Under such situations either synthetic or statistically generated data were used for hydraulic engineering designing and flood modeling. The fundamentals of precipitation-runoff relationship through synthetic unit hydrograph for Gin River basin were prepared using the method of the Flood Studies Report of the National Environmental Research Council, United Kingdom (1975). The Triangular Irregular Network model was constructed using Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine hazard prone zones. The 1:10,000 and 1:50,000 topography maps and field excursions were also used for initial site selection of mini-hydro power units and determine flooding area. The turbines output power generations were calculated using the parameters of net head and efficiency of turbine. The peak discharge achieves within 4.74 hours from the onset of the rainstorm and 11.95 hours time takes to reach its normal discharge conditions of Gin River basin. Stream frequency of Gin River is 4.56 (Junctions/ km2) while the channel slope is 7.90 (m/km). The regional coefficient on the catchment is 0.00296. Higher stream frequency and gentle channel slope were recognized as the flood triggering factors of Gin River basin and other parameters such as basins catchment area, main stream length, standard average annual rainfall and soil do not show any significant variations with other catchments of Sri Lanka. The flood management process, including control of flood disaster, prepared for a flood, and minimize it impacts are complicated in human population encroached and modified floodplains. Thus modern GIS technology has been productively executed to prepare hazard maps based on the flood modeling and also it would be further utilized for disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. Five suitable hydraulic heads were recognized for mini-hydro power sites and it would be the most economical and applicable flood controlling hydraulic engineering structure considering all morphologic, climatic, environmental and socioeconomic proxies of the study area. Mini-hydro power sites also utilized as clean, eco friendly and reliable energy source (8630.0 kW). Finally Francis Turbine can be employed as the most efficiency turbine for the selected sites bearing in mind of both technical and economical parameters.

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

Hydrologic Analysis of Ungauged Catchments For The Supply of Water For Irrigation On Railway Embankment Batters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyasi-Agyei, Y.; Nissen, D.

Water has been identified as a key component to the success of grass establishment on railway embankment batters (side slope) within Central Queensland, Australia, to control erosion. However, the region under study being semi-arid experiences less than 600 mm average annual rainfall occurring on about 60 days of the year. Culverts and bridges are integral part of railway embankments. They are used to cross water courses, be it an ephemeral creek or just a surface runoff path. Surface runoff through an ungauged railway embankment culvert is diverted to a temporary excavated pond located at the downstream side of the hydraulic structure. The temporary excavated pond water is used to feed an automated drip irrigation system, with solar as a source of energy to drive a pump. Railway embankment batter erosion remediation is timed in the wet season when irrigation is used to supplement natural rainfall. Hydrologic analysis of ungauged catchments for sizing the temporary excavated pond is presented. It is based on scenarios of runoff coefficient and curve number, and mass curve (Rippl diagram). Three years of continuous rainfall data (1997/1998 -1999/2000) were used to design a pond. The performance of the designed pond was evaluated in a field experiment during the next wet season (2000/2001). It supplied adequate water for irrigation as predicted by the hydrologic analysis during the grass establishment. This helped to achieve 100% grass cover on the railway embankment batter within 12 weeks. The proposed irrigation system has been demonstrated t o be feasible and cost effective.

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, Ida K.; Wagener, Thorsten; Coxon, Gemma; McMillan, Hilary K.; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Freer, Jim

2016-03-01

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30-40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.

Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a DEM-based tool for flood susceptibility mapping at large scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfreda, S.; Samela, C.; Albano, R.; Sole, A.

2017-12-01

Flood hazard and risk mapping over large areas is a critical issue. Recently, many researchers are trying to achieve a global scale mapping encountering several difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In data scarce environments, a preliminary and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be performed using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2014). We carried out several years of research on this topic, proposing a morphologic descriptor named Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) (Samela et al., 2017) and developing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based procedure able to identify flood susceptible areas. The procedure exhibited high accuracy in several test sites in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017) and has been recently implemented in a QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA) - tool. The tool allows to automatically compute the GFI, and turn it into a linear binary classifier capable of detecting flood-prone areas. To train this classifier, an inundation map derived using hydraulic models for a small portion of the basin is required (the minimum is 2% of the river basin's area). In this way, the GFA-tool allows to extend the classification of the flood-prone areas across the entire basin. We are also defining a simplified procedure for the estimation of the river depth, which may be helpful for large-scale analyses to approximatively evaluate the expected flood damages in the surrounding areas. ReferencesManfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the use of geomorphic approaches for the delineation of flood prone areas. J. Hydrol., 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2016). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Nat. Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C., Manfreda, S., Paola, F. D., Giugni, M., Sole, A., & Fiorentino, M. (2016). DEM-Based Approaches for the Delineation of Flood-Prone Areas in an Ungauged Basin in Africa. J. Hydrol. Eng,, 06015010. Samela, C., Troy, T. J., & Manfreda, S. (2017a). Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments. Adv. Water Resour., 102, 13-28.

Geostatistical enhancement of european hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Parajka, Juraj; Arheimer, Berit; Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Montanari, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Geostatistical Enhancement of European Hydrological Prediction (GEEHP) is a research experiment developed within the EU funded SWITCH-ON project, which proposes to conduct comparative experiments in a virtual laboratory in order to share water-related information and tackle changes in the hydrosphere for operational needs (http://www.water-switch-on.eu). The main objective of GEEHP deals with the prediction of streamflow indices and signatures in ungauged basins at different spatial scales. In particular, among several possible hydrological signatures we focus in our experiment on the prediction of flow-duration curves (FDCs) along the stream-network, which has attracted an increasing scientific attention in the last decades due to the large number of practical and technical applications of the curves (e.g. hydropower potential estimation, riverine habitat suitability and ecological assessments, etc.). We apply a geostatistical procedure based on Top-kriging, which has been recently shown to be particularly reliable and easy-to-use regionalization approach, employing two different type of streamflow data: pan-European E-HYPE simulations (http://hypeweb.smhi.se/europehype) and observed daily streamflow series collected in two pilot study regions, i.e. Tyrol (merging data from Austrian and Italian stream gauging networks) and Sweden. The merger of the two study regions results in a rather large area (~450000 km2) and might be considered as a proxy for a pan-European application of the approach. In a first phase, we implement a bidirectional validation, i.e. E-HYPE catchments are set as training sites to predict FDCs at the same sites where observed data are available, and vice-versa. Such a validation procedure reveals (1) the usability of the proposed approach for predicting the FDCs over the entire river network of interest using alternatively observed data and E-HYPE simulations and (2) the accuracy of E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs in ungauged sites. In a second phase, we develop a module, to be added to the flow-duration curve prediction framework, capable of enhancing E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs by modelling the residuals obtained from the first phase. Among all possible methods, we apply geostatistical modelling of residuals and, alternatively, regional regression, so that residuals between empirical and E-HYPE-base predicted FDCs are described in terms of geomorphological and climatic catchment descriptors.

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Use of a stochastic approach for description of water balance and runoff production dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gioia, A.; Manfreda, S.; Iacobellis, V.; Fiorentino, M.

2009-04-01

The present study exploits an analytical model (Manfreda, NHESS [2008]) for the description of the probability density function of soil water balance and runoff generation over a set of river basins belonging to Southern Italy. The model is based on a stochastic differential equation where the rainfall forcing is interpreted as an additive noise in the soil water balance; the watershed heterogeneity is described exploiting the conceptual lumped watershed Xinanjiang model (widely used in China) that uses a parabolic curve for the distribution of the soil water storage capacity (Zhao et al. [1980]). The model, characterized by parameters that depend on soil, vegetation and basin morphology, allowed to derive the probability density function of the relative saturation and the surface runoff of a basin accounting for the spatial heterogeneity in soil water storage. Its application on some river basins belonging to regions of Southern Italy, gives interesting insights for the investigation of the role played by the dynamical interaction between climate, soil, and vegetation in soil moisture and runoff production dynamics. Manfreda, S., Runoff Generation Dynamics within a Humid River Basin, Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, 8, 1349-1357, 2008. Zhao, R. -J., Zhang, Y. L., and Fang, L. R.: The Xinanjiang model, Hydrological Forecasting Proceedings Oxford Symposium, IAHS Pub. 129, 351-356, 1980.

An approach for modelling snowcover ablation and snowmelt runoff in cold region environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dornes, Pablo Fernando

Reliable hydrological model simulations are the result of numerous complex interactions among hydrological inputs, landscape properties, and initial conditions. Determination of the effects of these factors is one of the main challenges in hydrological modelling. This situation becomes even more difficult in cold regions due to the ungauged nature of subarctic and arctic environments. This research work is an attempt to apply a new approach for modelling snowcover ablation and snowmelt runoff in complex subarctic environments with limited data while retaining integrity in the process representations. The modelling strategy is based on the incorporation of both detailed process understanding and inputs along with information gained from observations of basin-wide streamflow phenomenon; essentially a combination of deductive and inductive approaches. The study was conducted in the Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon Territory, using three models, a small-scale physically based hydrological model, a land surface scheme, and a land surface hydrological model. The spatial representation was based on previous research studies and observations, and was accomplished by incorporating landscape units, defined according to topography and vegetation, as the spatial model elements. Comparisons between distributed and aggregated modelling approaches showed that simulations incorporating distributed initial snowcover and corrected solar radiation were able to properly simulate snowcover ablation and snowmelt runoff whereas the aggregated modelling approaches were unable to represent the differential snowmelt rates and complex snowmelt runoff dynamics. Similarly, the inclusion of spatially distributed information in a land surface scheme clearly improved simulations of snowcover ablation. Application of the same modelling approach at a larger scale using the same landscape based parameterisation showed satisfactory results in simulating snowcover ablation and snowmelt runoff with minimal calibration. Verification of this approach in an arctic basin illustrated that landscape based parameters are a feasible regionalisation framework for distributed and physically based models. In summary, the proposed modelling philosophy, based on the combination of an inductive and deductive reasoning, is a suitable strategy for reliable predictions of snowcover ablation and snowmelt runoff in cold regions and complex environments.

Estimation of small reservoir storage capacities in the São Francisco, Limpopo, Bandama and Volta river basins using remotely sensed surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Lineu; Senzanje, Aidan; Cecchi, Philippe; Liebe, Jens

2010-05-01

People living in areas with highly variable rainfall, experience droughts and floods and often have insecure livelihoods. Small multi-purpose reservoirs (SR) are a widely used form of infrastructures to provide people in such areas with water during the dry season, e.g. in the basins of São Francisco, Brazil, Limpopo, Zimbabwe, Bandama, Ivory Coast and Volta, Ghana. In these areas, the available natural flow in the streams is sometimes less than the flow required for water supply or irrigation, however water can be stored in times of surplus, for example, from a wet season to a dry season. Efficient water management and sound reservoir planning are hindered by the lack of information about the functioning of these reservoirs. Reservoirs in these regions were constructed in a series of projects funded by different agencies, at different times, with little or no coordination among the implementing partners. Poor record keeping and the lack of appropriate institutional support result in deficiencies of information on the capacity, operation, and maintenance of these structures. Estimating the storage capacity of dams is essential to the responsible management of water diversion. Most of SR in these basins have never been evaluated, possibly because the tools currently used for such measurement are labor-intensive, costly and time-consuming. The objective of this research was to develop methodology to estimate small reservoir capacities as a function of their remotely sensed surface areas in the São Francisco, Limpopo, Bandama and Volta basins, as a way to contribute to improve the water resource management in those catchments. Remote sensing was used to identify, localize and characterize small reservoirs. The surface area of each was calculated from satellite images. A sub-set of reservoirs was selected. For each reservoir in the sub-set, the surface area was estimated from field surveys, and storage capacity was estimated using information on reservoir surface area, depth and shape. Depth was measured using a stadia rod or a manual echosounder. For reservoirs in the sub-set, estimated surface area was used as an input into the triangulated irregular network model. With the surface area and depth, measured volume was calculated. Comparisons were made between estimates of surface area from field surveys and estimates of surface area from remote sensing. A linear regression analysis was carried out to establish the relationship between surface area and storage capacities. Within geomorphologically homogenous regions, one may expect a good correlation between the surface area, which may be determined through satellite observations, and the stored volume. Such a relation depends on the general shape of the slopes (convex, through straight, to concave). The power relationships between remotely sensed surface areas (m^2) and storage capacities of reservoirs (m^3) obtained were - Limpopo basin (Lower Mzingwane sub-catchment): Volume = 0.023083 x Area^1.3272 (R2 = 95%); Bandama basin (North of the basin in Ivory Coast): Volume = 0.00405 x Area^1.4953 (R2 = 88.9%); Volta basin (Upper East region of the Volta Basin in Ghana): Volume = 0.00857 × Area^1.43 (R2 = 97.5%); São Francisco basin (Preto river sub-catchment): Volume = 0.2643 x Area^1.1632 (R2 = 92.1%). Remote sensing was found to be a suitable means to detect small reservoirs and accurately measure their surface areas. The general relationship between measured reservoir volumes and their remotely sensed surface areas showed good accuracy for all four basins. Combining such relationships with periodical satellite-based reservoir area measurements may allow hydrologists and planners to have clear picture of water resource system in the Basins, especially in ungauged sub-basins.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Hydrologic controls on equilibrium soil depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicótina, L.; Tarboton, D. G.; Tesfa, T. K.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-04-01

This paper deals with modeling the mutual feedbacks between runoff production and geomorphological processes and attributes that lead to patterns of equilibrium soil depth. Our primary goal is an attempt to describe spatial patterns of soil depth resulting from long-term interactions between hydrologic forcings and soil production, erosion, and sediment transport processes under the framework of landscape dynamic equilibrium. Another goal is to set the premises for exploiting the role of soil depths in shaping the hydrologic response of a catchment. The relevance of the study stems from the massive improvement in hydrologic predictions for ungauged basins that would be achieved by using directly soil depths derived from geomorphic features remotely measured and objectively manipulated. Hydrological processes are here described by explicitly accounting for local soil depths and detailed catchment topography. Geomorphological processes are described by means of well-studied geomorphic transport laws. The modeling approach is applied to the semiarid Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Boise, Idaho. Modeled soil depths are compared with field data obtained from an extensive survey of the catchment. Our results show the ability of the model to describe properly the mean soil depth and the broad features of the distribution of measured data. However, local comparisons show significant scatter whose origins are discussed.

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, Mahendran; van Emmerik, Tim H. M.; Elshafei, Yasmina; Kandasamy, Jaya; Sanderson, Matthew R.; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuthu; Pande, Saket; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2018-02-01

Sustainable water resources management relies on understanding how societies and water systems coevolve. Many place-based sociohydrology (SH) modeling studies use proxies, such as environmental degradation, to capture key elements of the social component of system dynamics. Parameters of assumed relationships between environmental degradation and the human response to it are usually obtained through calibration. Since these relationships are not yet underpinned by social-science theories, confidence in the predictive power of such place-based sociohydrologic models remains low. The generalizability of SH models therefore requires major advances in incorporating more realistic relationships, underpinned by appropriate hydrological and social-science data and theories. The latter is a critical input, since human culture - especially values and norms arising from it - influences behavior and the consequences of behaviors. This paper reviews a key social-science theory that links cultural factors to environmental decision-making, assesses how to better incorporate social-science insights to enhance SH models, and raises important questions to be addressed in moving forward. This is done in the context of recent progress in sociohydrological studies and the gaps that remain to be filled. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and opportunities in terms of generalization of SH models and the use of available data to allow future prediction and model transfer to ungauged basins.

The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

2014-05-01

Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

Identifying dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments: a comparative hydrology approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, R.; Archfield, S.A.; Wagener, T.

2014-01-01

Daily streamflow information is critical for solving various hydrologic problems, though observations of continuous streamflow for model calibration are available at only a small fraction of the world’s rivers. One approach to estimate daily streamflow at an ungauged location is to transfer rainfall–runoff model parameters calibrated at a gauged (donor) catchment to an ungauged (receiver) catchment of interest. Central to this approach is the selection of a hydrologically similar donor. No single metric or set of metrics of hydrologic similarity have been demonstrated to consistently select a suitable donor catchment. We design an experiment to diagnose the dominant controls on successful hydrologic model parameter transfer. We calibrate a lumped rainfall–runoff model to 83 stream gauges across the United States. All locations are USGS reference gauges with minimal human influence. Parameter sets from the calibrated models are then transferred to each of the other catchments and the performance of the transferred parameters is assessed. This transfer experiment is carried out both at the scale of the entire US and then for six geographic regions. We use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine the relationship between catchment similarity and performance of transferred parameters. Similarity is defined using physical/climatic catchment characteristics, as well as streamflow response characteristics (signatures such as baseflow index and runoff ratio). Across the entire US, successful parameter transfer is governed by similarity in elevation and climate, and high similarity in streamflow signatures. Controls vary for different geographic regions though. Geology followed by drainage, topography and climate constitute the dominant similarity metrics in forested eastern mountains and plateaus, whereas agricultural land use relates most strongly with successful parameter transfer in the humid plains.

Assessing the Reliability of Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency Equations for Gauged and Ungauged Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Montanari, A.; Brath, A.

2002-12-01

The study derives Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency (RDDF) equations for a wide region of northern-central Italy (37,200 km 2) by following an adaptation of the approach originally proposed by Alila [WRR, 36(7), 2000]. The proposed RDDF equations have a rather simple structure and allow an estimation of the design storm, defined as the rainfall depth expected for a given storm duration and recurrence interval, in any location of the study area for storm durations from 1 to 24 hours and for recurrence intervals up to 100 years. The reliability of the proposed RDDF equations represents the main concern of the study and it is assessed at two different levels. The first level considers the gauged sites and compares estimates of the design storm obtained with the RDDF equations with at-site estimates based upon the observed annual maximum series of rainfall depth and with design storm estimates resulting from a regional estimator recently developed for the study area through a Hierarchical Regional Approach (HRA) [Gabriele and Arnell, WRR, 27(6), 1991]. The second level performs a reliability assessment of the RDDF equations for ungauged sites by means of a jack-knife procedure. Using the HRA estimator as a reference term, the jack-knife procedure assesses the reliability of design storm estimates provided by the RDDF equations for a given location when dealing with the complete absence of pluviometric information. The results of the analysis show that the proposed RDDF equations represent practical and effective computational means for producing a first guess of the design storm at the available raingauges and reliable design storm estimates for ungauged locations. The first author gratefully acknowledges D.H. Burn for sponsoring the submission of the present abstract.

Estimation of frequency based flood peak for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report presents: (1) calculation of flood frequency for the Ward Creek watershed using eight flood prediction models, (2) establishment of the rating curve (stage-discharge relation) for the Ward Creek watershed, (3) evaluation of these flood pr...

On evaluating the robustness of spatial-proximity-based regionalization methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebecherel, Laure; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles

2016-08-01

In absence of streamflow data to calibrate a hydrological model, its parameters are to be inferred by a regionalization method. In this technical note, we discuss a specific class of regionalization methods, those based on spatial proximity, which transfers hydrological information (typically calibrated parameter sets) from neighbor gauged stations to the target ungauged station. The efficiency of any spatial-proximity-based regionalization method will depend on the density of the available streamgauging network, and the purpose of this note is to discuss how to assess the robustness of the regionalization method (i.e., its resilience to an increasingly sparse hydrometric network). We compare two options: (i) the random hydrometrical reduction (HRand) method, which consists in sub-sampling the existing gauging network around the target ungauged station, and (ii) the hydrometrical desert method (HDes), which consists in ignoring the closest gauged stations. Our tests suggest that the HDes method should be preferred, because it provides a more realistic view on regionalization performance.

Advances in variable selection methods II: Effect of variable selection method on classification of hydrologically similar watersheds in three Mid-Atlantic ecoregions

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological flow predictions in ungauged and sparsely gauged watersheds use regionalization or classification of hydrologically similar watersheds to develop empirical relationships between hydrologic, climatic, and watershed variables. The watershed classifications may be based...

Data-based information gain on the response behaviour of hydrological models at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

A data-based approach is presented to analyse the response behaviour of hydrological models at the catchment scale. The approach starts with a number of sequential time series processing steps, applied to available rainfall, ETo and river flow observation series. These include separation of the high frequency (e.g., hourly, daily) river flow series into subflows, split of the series in nearly independent quick and slow flow hydrograph periods, and the extraction of nearly independent peak and low flows. Quick-, inter- and slow-subflow recession behaviour, sub-responses to rainfall and soil water storage are derived from the time series data. This data-based information on the catchment response behaviour can be applied on the basis of: - Model-structure identification and case-specific construction of lumped conceptual models for gauged catchments; or diagnostic evaluation of existing model structures; - Intercomparison of runoff responses for gauged catchments in a river basin, in order to identify similarity or significant differences between stations or between time periods, and relate these differences to spatial differences or temporal changes in catchment characteristics; - (based on the evaluation of the temporal changes in previous point:) Detection of temporal changes/trends and identification of its causes: climate trends, or land use changes; - Identification of asymptotic properties of the rainfall-runoff behaviour towards extreme peak or low flow conditions (for a given catchment) or towards extreme catchment conditions (for regionalization, ungauged basin prediction purposes); hence evaluating the performance of the model in making extrapolations beyond the range of available stations' data; - (based on the evaluation in previous point:) Evaluation of the usefulness of the model for making extrapolations to more extreme climate conditions projected by for instance climate models. Examples are provided for river basins in Belgium, Ethiopia, Kenya, Ecuador, Bolivia and China. References: Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2012), 'Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes, in a climate changing context', Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, 425-434, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.017 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O. (in press), 'Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models', Hydrological Processes; doi: 10.1002/hyp.9480 [in press

A process proof test for model concepts: Modelling the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellebrand, Hugo; Müller, Christoph; Matgen, Patrick; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Savenije, Huub

In hydrological modelling the use of detailed soil data is sometimes troublesome, since often these data are hard to obtain and, if available at all, difficult to interpret and process in a way that makes them meaningful for the model at hand. Intuitively the understanding and mapping of dominant runoff processes in the soil show high potential for improving hydrological models. In this study a labour-intensive methodology to assess dominant runoff processes is simplified in such a way that detailed soil maps are no longer needed. Nonetheless, there is an ongoing debate on how to integrate this type of information in hydrological models. In this study, dominant runoff processes (DRP) are mapped for meso-scale basins using the permeability of the substratum, land use information and the slope in a GIS. During a field campaign the processes are validated and for each DRP assumptions are made concerning their water storage capacity. The latter is done by means of combining soil data obtained during the field campaign with soil data obtained from the literature. Second, several parsimoniously parameterized conceptual hydrological models are used that incorporate certain aspects of the DRP. The result of these models are compared with a benchmark model in which the soil is represented as only one lumped parameter to test the contribution of the DRP in hydrological models. The proposed methodology is tested for 15 meso-scale river basins located in Luxembourg. The main goal of this study is to investigate if integrating dominant runoff processes, which have high information content concerning soil characteristics, with hydrological models allows the improvement of simulation results models with a view to regionalization and predictions in ungauged basins. The regionalization procedure gave no clear results. The calibration procedure and the well-mixed discharge signal of the calibration basins are considered major causes for this and it made the deconvolution of discharge signals of meso-scale basins problematic. From the results it is also suggested that DRP could very well display some sort of uniqueness of place, which was not foreseen in the methods from which they were derived. Furthermore, a strong seasonal influence on model performance was observed, implying a seasonal dependence of the DRP. When comparing the performance between the DRP models and the benchmark model no real distinction was found. To improve the performance of the DRP models, which are used in this study and also for then use of conceptual models in general, there is a need for an improved identification of the mechanisms that cause the different dominant runoff processes at the meso-scale. To achieve this, more orthogonal data could be of use for a better conceptualization of the DRPs. Then, models concepts should be adapted accordingly.

Comparisons of Historical versus Synthetic Weather Inputs to Watershed Models and their Effect on Pollutant Loads

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Synthetic weather generators are important for continuous-simulation of agricultural watersheds for risk analyses of downstream water quality. Many watersheds are sparsely or totally ungauged and daily weather must either be transposed or augmented. Since water quality models must recognize runoff...

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15 catchments resulted in good model performance (NSE > 0.5) in 10 and medium performance (NSE > 0.2) in 3 catchments. Optimal model parameters proofed to be relatively insensitive to different HRU configurations. This suggests that dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer can potentially be identified based on catchment attributes describing meteorological, geological or landscape characteristics. Parameter regionalization based on a principal component analysis (PCA) nearest neighbor search (using all available catchment attributes) resulted in a 54% success rate in transferring optimal parameter sets and still yielding acceptable model performance. Data from more catchments are required to further increase the parameter transferability success rate or to develop regionalization strategies for individual parameters.

Coupled hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Upper Niger River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Gossett, Marielle; Pontes, Paulo; Calmant, Stephane; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Crétaux, Jean-François; Tanimoune, Bachir

2017-04-01

The Upper Niger Basin is located in Western Africa, flowing from Guinea Highlands towards the Sahel region. In this area lies the seasonally inundated Niger Inland Delta, which supports important environmental services such as habitats for wildlife, climate and flood regulation, as well as large fishery and agricultural areas. In this study, we present the application of MGB-IPH large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the Upper Niger Basin, totaling c.a. 650,000 km2 and set up until the city of Niamey in Niger. The model couples hydrological vertical balance and runoff generation with hydrodynamic flood wave propagation, by allowing infiltration from floodplains into soil column as well as representing backwater effects and floodplain storage throughout flat areas such as the Inland Delta. The model is forced with TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology for the period 2000-2010, and was calibrated against in-situ discharge gauges and validated with in-situ water level, remotely sensed estimations of flooded areas (classification of MODIS imagery) and satellite altimetry (JASON-2 mission). Model results show good predictions for calibrated daily discharge and validated water level and altimetry at stations both upstream and downstream of the delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.7 for all stations), as well as for flooded areas within the delta region (ENS=0.5; r2=0.8), allowing a good representation of flooding dynamics basinwide and simulation of flooding behavior of both perennial (e.g., Niger main stem) and ephemeral rivers (e.g., Niger Red Flood tributaries in Sahel). Coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamic processes indicates an important feedback between floodplain and soil water storage that allows high evapotranspiration rates even after the flood passage around the inner delta area. Also, representation of water retention in floodplain channels and distributaries in the inner delta (e.g., Diaka river distributary) is fundamental for the correct representation of the flood wave attenuation in Niger main stem. Improvements could be made in terms of floods propagation across the basin -through parameters such as Manning's roughness and section depth and width-using the comparison with satellite altimetry data, for instance. Finally, such coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic models prove to be an important tool for integrated evaluation of hydrological processes in such ungauged, large scale floodplain areas. Possible uses of the model involve the assessment of different scenarios of anthropic alteration, e.g., the effects of reservoirs implementation and climate and land use changes.

Dual assimilation of satellite soil moisture to improve flood prediction in ungauged catchments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper explores the use of active and passive satellite soil moisture products for improving stream flow prediction within 4 large (>5,000km2) semi-arid catchments. We use the probability distributed model (PDM) under a data-scarce scenario and aim at correcting two key controlling factors in th...

Gauging hidden symmetries in two dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samtleben, Henning; Weidner, Martin

2007-08-01

We initiate the systematic construction of gauged matter-coupled supergravity theories in two dimensions. Subgroups of the affine global symmetry group of toroidally compactified supergravity can be gauged by coupling vector fields with minimal couplings and a particular topological term. The gauge groups typically include hidden symmetries that are not among the target-space isometries of the ungauged theory. The gaugings constructed in this paper are described group-theoretically in terms of a constant embedding tensor subject to a number of constraints which parametrizes the different theories and entirely encodes the gauged Lagrangian. The prime example is the bosonic sector of the maximally supersymmetric theory whose ungauged version admits an affine fraktur e9 global symmetry algebra. The various parameters (related to higher-dimensional p-form fluxes, geometric and non-geometric fluxes, etc.) which characterize the possible gaugings, combine into an embedding tensor transforming in the basic representation of fraktur e9. This yields an infinite-dimensional class of maximally supersymmetric theories in two dimensions. We work out and discuss several examples of higher-dimensional origin which can be systematically analyzed using the different gradings of fraktur e9.

Contrasting SYK-like models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, Chethan; Pavan Kumar, K. V.; Rosa, Dario

2018-01-01

We contrast some aspects of various SYK-like models with large- N melonic behavior. First, we note that ungauged tensor models can exhibit symmetry breaking, even though these are 0+1 dimensional theories. Related to this, we show that when gauged, some of them admit no singlets, and are anomalous. The uncolored Majorana tensor model with even N is a simple case where gauge singlets can exist in the spectrum. We outline a strategy for solving for the singlet spectrum, taking advantage of the results in arXiv:1706.05364, and reproduce the singlet states expected in N = 2. In the second part of the paper, we contrast the random matrix aspects of some ungauged tensor models, the original SYK model, and a model due to Gross and Rosenhaus. The latter, even though disorder averaged, shows parallels with the Gurau-Witten model. In particular, the two models fall into identical Andreev ensembles as a function of N . In an appendix, we contrast the (expected) spectra of AdS2 quantum gravity, SYK and SYK-like tensor models, and the zeros of the Riemann Zeta function.

New ArcGIS tools developed for stream network extraction and basin delineations using Python and java script

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omran, Adel; Dietrich, Schröder; Abouelmagd, Abdou; Michael, Märker

2016-09-01

Damages caused by flash floods hazards are an increasing phenomenon, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Thus, the need to evaluate these areas based on their flash flood risk using maps and hydrological models is also becoming more important. For ungauged watersheds a tentative analysis can be carried out based on the geomorphometric characteristics of the terrain. To process regions with larger watersheds, where perhaps hundreds of watersheds have to be delineated, processed and classified, the overall process need to be automated. GIS packages such as ESRI's ArcGIS offer a number of sophisticated tools that help regarding such analysis. Yet there are still gaps and pitfalls that need to be considered if the tools are combined into a geoprocessing model to automate the complete assessment workflow. These gaps include issues such as i) assigning stream order according to Strahler theory, ii) calculating the threshold value for the stream network extraction, and iii) determining the pour points for each of the nodes of the Strahler ordered stream network. In this study a complete automated workflow based on ArcGIS Model Builder using standard tools will be introduced and discussed. Some additional tools have been implemented to complete the overall workflow. These tools have been programmed using Python and Java in the context of ArcObjects. The workflow has been applied to digital data from the southwestern Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. An optimum threshold value has been selected to optimize drainage configuration by statistically comparing all of the extracted stream configuration results from DEM with the available reference data from topographic maps. The code has succeeded in estimating the correct ranking of specific stream orders in an automatic manner without additional manual steps. As a result, the code has proven to save time and efforts; hence it's considered a very useful tool for processing large catchment basins.

Evaluation and hydrological application of satellite-based precipitation datasets in driving hydrological models over the Huifa river basin in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Honglei; Li, Ying; Huang, Yanwei; Li, Yingchen; Hou, Cuicui; Shi, Xiaoliang

2018-07-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates with high spatial and temporal resolution and large areal coverage have provided hydrologists a potential alternative source for hydrological applications since the last few years, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates five satellite-based precipitation datasets, namely, Fengyun, TRMM 3B42, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW, against gauge observations for streamflow simulation with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) over the Huifa river basin, Northeast China. Results show that, by comparing the statistical indices (MA, M5P, STDE, ME, BIAS and CC) and inter-annual precipitation, it is demonstrated that Fengyun TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH_BLD show better agreement with gauge precipitation data than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT. When the SWAT model for each dataset calibrated and validated individually, satisfactory model performances (defined as: NS > 0.5) are achieved at daily scale for Fengyun, TRMM 3B42 and gauge-driven model, and very good performances (defined as: NS > 0.75) are achieved at monthly scale for Fengyun and gauge-driven model, respectively. The CMORPH_BLD forced daily simulations also yield higher values of NS and R2 than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT at daily and monthly step. From the uncertainty results, variations of P-factor values and frequency distribution curves of NS suggest that the simulation uncertainty increase when operating the Fengyun, 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW-driven model with best fitted parameters for rain gauge SWAT model. The results also indicate that the influence of parameter uncertainty on model simulation results may be greater than the effect of input data accuracy. It is noted that uncertainty analysis is necessary to evaluate the hydrological applications of satellite-based precipitation datasets.

Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

2017-12-01

Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

Isotope Tracers as Tools for Identifying Water Sources in Developing Regions: Case of Study in Southern Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosquera, G.; Lazo, P.; Crespo, P.; Célleri, R.

2014-12-01

Páramo ecosystems are widely recognized for their high water regulation capacity and as the main source of runoff generation in the Andean region. Understanding the hydrological functioning of the fragile wet Andean páramo ecosystems is critical in the mountainous regions of South America given their high susceptibility to global and local stressors such as land use change and climate change and variability . Despite this, most of the basins in the Andean mountain range are still ungauged, resulting in a currently hindered hydrologic analysis of the water sources contributing to runoff generation in the high-elevation páramo ecosystems. To improve this situation and provide a baseline for future tracer-based hydrologic studies, the isotopic signature of water samples collected within the Zhurucay River experimental basin (7.53 km2) was analyzed. The study area is located in the southern Ecuador and stretches over an altitudinal range of 3200 and 3900 m a.s.l. Water samples in rainfall, streamflow, and soils were collected between May 2011 and May 2013. Streamflow hydrometric and isotopic information within the study site was collected using a nested monitoring system. The main soils in the study site are the Andosols mainly located in the steep slopes, and the Histosols (Andean páramo wetlands) predominantly located at the bottom of the valley. Results reveal that the Andosols drain the infiltrated rainfall water to the Histosols. The Histosols on their turn feed creeks and small rivers. Pre-event water stored in the Histosols is the primary source of runoff generation throughout the year. Defining the water sources contributing to runoff generation is the first step towards the establishment of scientifically-based programs of management and conservation of water resources in the Andean region; and the monitoring of isotopic information has proven useful to improve the understanding of the ecosystem's hydrologic behavior.

Geomorphology and landscape organization of a northern peatland complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, M. C.

2012-12-01

The geomorphic evolution of northern peatlands is governed by complex ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and associated hydro-climatic drivers. For example, prevailing models of bog development (i.e. Ingram's groundwater mounding hypothesis and variants) attempt to explicitly link bog dome characteristics to the regional climate based on analytical and numerical models of lateral groundwater flow and the first-order control of water table position on rates of peat accumulation. In this talk I will present new results from quantitative geomorphic analyses of a northern peatland complex at the De Beers Victor diamond mine site in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario. This work capitalizes on spatially-extensive, high-resolution topographic (LiDAR) data to rigorously test analytical and numerical models of bog dome development in this landscape. The analysis and discussion are then expanded beyond individual bog formations to more broadly consider ecohydrological drivers of landscape organization, with implications for understanding and modeling catchment-scale runoff response. Results show that in this landscape, drainage patterns exhibit relatively well-organized characteristics consistent with observed runoff responses in six gauged research catchments. Interpreted together, the results of these geomorphic and hydrologic analyses help refine our understanding of water balance partitioning among different landcover types within northern peatland complexes. These findings can be used to help guide the development of appropriate numerical model structures for hydrologic prediction in ungauged peatland basins of northern Canada.

National-Scale Hydrologic Classification & Agricultural Decision Support: A Multi-Scale Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coopersmith, E. J.; Minsker, B.; Sivapalan, M.

2012-12-01

Classification frameworks can help organize catchments exhibiting similarity in hydrologic and climatic terms. Focusing this assessment of "similarity" upon specific hydrologic signatures, in this case the annual regime curve, can facilitate the prediction of hydrologic responses. Agricultural decision-support over a diverse set of catchments throughout the United States depends upon successful modeling of the wetting/drying process without necessitating separate model calibration at every site where such insights are required. To this end, a holistic classification framework is developed to describe both climatic variability (humid vs. arid, winter rainfall vs. summer rainfall) and the draining, storing, and filtering behavior of any catchment, including ungauged or minimally gauged basins. At the national scale, over 400 catchments from the MOPEX database are analyzed to construct the classification system, with over 77% of these catchments ultimately falling into only six clusters. At individual locations, soil moisture models, receiving only rainfall as input, produce correlation values in excess of 0.9 with respect to observed soil moisture measurements. By deploying physical models for predicting soil moisture exclusively from precipitation that are calibrated at gauged locations, overlaying machine learning techniques to improve these estimates, then generalizing the calibration parameters for catchments in a given class, agronomic decision-support becomes available where it is needed rather than only where sensing data are located.lassifications of 428 U.S. catchments on the basis of hydrologic regime data, Coopersmith et al, 2012.

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons". Managers may feel more confident to utilize such models to predict flows in fully ungauged areas.

Moving beyond heterogeneity and process complexity: a new vision for watershed hydrology

Treesearch

J. J. McDonnell; M. Sivapalan; K. Vache; S. Dunn; G. Grant; R. Haggerty; C. Hinz; R. Hooper; J. Kirchner; M.L. Roderick; J. Selker; M. Weiler

2007-01-01

Field studies in watershed hydrology continue to characterize and catalogue the enormous heterogeneity and complexity of rainfall runoff processes in more and more watersheds, in different hydroclimatic regimes, and at different scales. Nevertheless, the ability to generalize these findings to ungauged regions remains out of reach. In spite of their apparent physical...

Estimation of daily stream flow of southeastern coastal plain watersheds by combining estimated magnitude and sequence

Treesearch

Herbert Ssegane; Devendra M. Amatya; E.W. Tollner; Zhaohua Dai; Jami E. Nettles

2013-01-01

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined...

Adaptation of a pattern-scaling approach for assessment of local (village/valley) scale water resources and related vulnerabilities in the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

2010-05-01

The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are of the utmost importance to the economic wellbeing of Pakistan. The irrigated agriculture made possible by Indus river runoff underpins the food security for Pakistan's nearly 200 million people. Contributions from hydropower account for more than one fifth of peak installed electrical generating capacity in a country where widespread, prolonged load-shedding handicaps business activity and industrial development. Pakistan's further socio-economic development thus depends largely on optimisation of its precious water resources. Confident, accurate seasonal predictions of water resource availability coupled with sound understanding of interannual variability are urgent insights needed by development planners and infrastructure managers at all levels. This study focuses on the challenge of providing meaningful quantitative information at the village/valley scale in the upper reaches of the UIB. Proceeding by progressive reductions in scale, the typology of the observed UIB hydrological regimes -- glacial, nival and pluvial -- are examined with special emphasis on interannual variability for individual seasons. Variations in discharge (runoff) are compared to observations of climate parameters (temperature, precipitation) and available spatial data (elevation, snow cover and snow-water-equivalent). The first scale presented is composed of the large-scale, long-record gauged UIB tributary basins. The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has maintained these stations for several decades in order to monitor seasonal flows and accumulate data for design of further infrastructure. Data from basins defined by five gauging stations on the Indus, Hunza, Gilgit and Astore rivers are examined. The second scale presented is a set of smaller gauged headwater catchments with short records. These gauges were installed by WAPDA and its partners amongst the international development agencies to assess potential sites for medium-scale infrastructure projects. These catchments are placed in their context within the hydrological regime classification using the spatial data and (remote sensing) observations as well as river gauging measurements. The study assesses the degree of similarity with the larger basins of the same hydrological regime. This assessment focuses on the measured response to observed climate variable anomalies. The smallest scale considered is comprised of a number of case studies at the ungauged village/valley scale. These examples are based on the delineation of areas to which specific communities (villages) have customary (riparian) water rights. These examples were suggested by non-governmental organisations working on grassroots economic development initiatives and small-scale infrastructure projects in the region. The direct observations available for these subcatchments are limited to spatial data (elevation, snow parameters). The challenge at this level is to accurately extrapolate areal values (precipitation, temperature, runoff) from point observations at the basin scale. The study assesses both the degree of similarity in the distribution of spatial parameters to the larger gauged basins and the interannual variability (spatial heterogeneity) of remotely-sensed snow cover and snow-water-equivalent at this subcatchment scale. Based upon the characterisation of spatial and interannual variability at these three spatial scales, the challenges facing local water resource managers and infrastructure operators are enumerated. Local vulnerabilities include, but are not limited to, varying thresholds in irrigation water requirements based on crop-type, minimum base flows for micro-hydropower generation during winter (high load) months and relatively small but growing demand for domestic water usage. In conclusion the study posits potential strategies for managing interannual variability and potential emerging trends. Suggested strategies are guided by the principles of low-risk adaptation, participative decision making and local capacity building.

Water quality in the Mobile River Basin, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, and Tennessee, 1999-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkins, J. Brian; Zappia, Humbert; Robinson, James L.; McPherson, Ann K.; Moreland, Richard S.; Harned, Douglas A.; Johnston, Brett F.; Harvill, John S.

2004-01-01

This report contains the major findings of a 1999?2001 assessment of water quality in the Mobile River Basin. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings in 51 major river basins and aquifer systems across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, State, and regional issues. Conditions in a particular basin or aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality and the protection of aquatic organisms. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or in the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as the effects of agricultural and urban land use on water quality, human health, drinking water, source-water protection, hypoxia and excessive growth of algae and plants, pesticide registration, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of streams and ground water in areas near where they live, and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the Mobile River Basin summarized in this report are discussed in detail in other reports that can be accessed from the Mobile River Basin Web site (http://al.water.usgs.gov/pubs/mobl/mobl.html). Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa).

Spatial analysis of relative humidity during ungauged periods in a mountainous region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo

2017-08-01

Although atmospheric humidity influences environmental and agricultural conditions, thereby influencing plant growth, human health, and air pollution, efforts to develop spatial maps of atmospheric humidity using statistical approaches have thus far been limited. This study therefore aims to develop statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of relative humidity (RH) for a mountainous island, for which data are not uniformly available across the region. A multiple regression analysis based on various mathematical models was used to identify the optimal model for estimating monthly RH by incorporating not only temperature but also location and elevation. Based on the regression analysis, we extended the monthly RH data from weather stations to cover the ungauged periods when no RH observations were available. Then, two different types of station-based data, the observational data and the data extended via the regression model, were used to form grid-based data with a resolution of 100 m. The grid-based data that used the extended station-based data captured the increasing RH trend along an elevation gradient. Furthermore, annual RH values averaged over the regions were examined. Decreasing temporal trends were found in most cases, with magnitudes varying based on the season and region.

Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or Limestone. The study is progressed based on the followings. Firstly, hydrological time series of each catchment are sampled and clustered into multi-period having distinctly different temporal characteristics, and secondly, behavioural parameter distributions are determined in each multi-period based on the specification of multi-criteria model performance measures. Finally, behavioural parameter sets of each multi-period of single catchment are applied on the corresponding period of other catchments, and the cross-validations are conducted in this manner for all catchments The multi-period model conditioning approach is clearly effective to reduce the width of prediction limits, giving better model performance against the temporal variability of hydrological characteristics, and has enough potential to be the effective prediction tool for ungauged catchments. However, more advanced and continuous studies are needed to expand the application of this approach in prediction of hydrological responses in ungauged catchments,

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Derivation from regional analysis of streamflow recession curves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi

2014-07-21

Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall–runoff response, especially in steep terrain. Its contribution to total runoff is, however, poorly represented in the current generation of land surface models. The lack of physical basis of these common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation of the stormflow (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global land surface models. This paper is aimed at deriving regionalized parameterizations of the storage–discharge relationship relating to subsurface stormflow from a top–down empirical data analysis of streamflow recession curves extracted from 50 eastern United Statesmore » catchments. Detailed regression analyses were performed between parameters of the empirical storage–discharge relationships and the controlling climate, soil and topographic characteristics. The regression analyses performed on empirical recession curves at catchment scale indicated that the coefficient of the power-law form storage–discharge relationship is closely related to the catchment hydrologic characteristics, which is consistent with the hydraulic theory derived mainly at the hillslope scale. As for the exponent, besides the role of field scale soil hydraulic properties as suggested by hydraulic theory, it is found to be more strongly affected by climate (aridity) at the catchment scale. At a fundamental level these results point to the need for more detailed exploration of the co-dependence of soil, vegetation and topography with climate.« less

Intercomparison and validation of continental water level products derived from satellite radar altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ričko, Martina; Birkett, Charon M.; Carton, James A.; Crétaux, Jean-François

2012-01-01

Satellite radar altimeter measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for ungauged basins and by filling data gaps in existing gauge records. Such additional measurements assist both research and operational programs. However, for a particular lake or reservoir, altimetric products offered to end-users may differ due to choice of employed instrument, processing technique, and applied geophysical corrections. To explore these differences, particularly with their potential impact on climate-based research, an intercomparison of three web-based water-level products (produced by Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, National Aeronautics and Space Administration/United States Department of Agriculture, and European Space Agency/De Montfort University) has been undertaken based on 18 lakes and reservoirs. The products are well correlated with each other (r=0.87 to 0.99) and where in situ data are available are quite well correlated with the gauge measurements (r=0.73 to 0.99). Despite variations in data processing, the poorest root-mean-square differences between any altimeter product and gauge data (˜0.20 to 1.41 m) occur for the narrow reservoirs and smaller lakes. The largest discrepancies between the altimeter products occur for the lakes that freeze (Lake Athabasca and Woods). The current altimeter products provide acceptable accuracy, long-term trends and seasonality for climate applications. We discuss the merits of each product system, but recommend further validations and the provision of ice-detection flags.

Quantifying alteration of river flow regime by large reservoirs in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipriani, Thomas; Sauquet, Eric

2017-04-01

Reservoirs may highly modify river flow regime. Knowing the alterations is of importance to better understand the biological and physical patterns along the river network. However data are not necessary available to carry out an analysis of modifications at a national scale, e.g. due to industrial interests or to lack of measurements. The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in a set of hydrological indices due to large reservoirs in France combining different data sources. The analysis is based on a comparison between influenced discharges (observed discharges) and natural discharges available from: (i) gauging stations available upstream the dam, (ii) regionalization procedures (Sauquet et al., 2008; Sauquet et Catalogne, 2011; Cipriani et al., 2012), or (iii) historical data free from human influence close to the dam location. The impact of large reservoirs is assessed considering different facets of the river flow regime, including flood quantiles, low flow characteristics, quantiles from the flow duration curve and the twelve mean monthly discharges. The departures from the indice representative of natural conditions quantify the effect of the reservoir management on the river flow regime. The analysis is based on 62 study cases. Results show large spread in terms of impact depending on the purposes of the reservoirs and the season of interest. Results also point out inconsistencies in data (water balance between outflow and inflow, downstream of the dam is not warranted) due to uncertainties in mean monthly discharges and to the imperfect knowledge of inflows and outflows. Lastly, we suggest a typology of hydrological alterations based on the purposes of the reservoirs. Cipriani T., Toilliez T., Sauquet E. (2012). Estimating 10 year return period peak flows and flood durations at ungauged locations in France. La Houille Blanche, 4-5: 5-13, doi : 10.1051/lhb/2012024. Sauquet E., Catalogne C. (2011). Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 2421-2435, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011. Sauquet E., Gottschalk L., Krasovskaïa I. (2008). Estimating mean monthly runoff at ungauged locations: an application to France. Hydrology Research, 39(5-6): 403-423.

Design of Environmental Flows Below Diversion Hydropower Dams: Is There Benefit to Advanced Streamflow Prediction in Sparse Data Landscapes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2017-12-01

Diversion hydropower has been shown to significantly alter river flow regimes by dewatering diversion bypass reaches. Data scarcity is one of the foremost challenges to establishing environmental flow regimes below diversion hydropower dams, especially in regions of sparse hydro-meteorological observation. Herein, we test two prediction strategies for generating daily flows in rivers developed with diversion hydropower: a catchment similarity model, and a rainfall-runoff model selected by multi-objective optimization based on soft data. While both methods are designed for ungauged rivers embedded within large regions of sparse hydrologic observation, one is more complex and computationally-intensive. The objective of this study is to assess the benefit of using complex modeling tools in data-sparse landscapes to support design of environmental flow regimes. Models were tested in gauged catchments and then used to simulate a 28-year record of daily flows in 32 ungauged rivers. After perturbing flows with the hydropower diversion, we detect alteration using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) metrics and compare outcomes of the two modeling approaches. The catchment similarity model simulates low flows well (Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) = 0.91), but poorly represents moderate to high flows (overall NSE = 0.25). The multi-objective rainfall-runoff model performs well overall (NSE = 0.72). Both models agree that flow magnitudes and variability consistently decrease following diversion as temporally-dynamic flows are replaced by static minimal flows. Mean duration of events sustained below the pre-diversion Q75 and mean hydrograph rise and fall rates increase. While we see broad areas of agreement, significant effects and thresholds vary between models, particularly in the representation of moderate flows. Thus, use of simplified streamflow models may bias detected alterations or inadequately characterize pre-regulation flow regimes, providing inaccurate information as a basis for flow regime design. As an alternative, the multi-objective framework can be applied globally, and is robust to common challenges of flow prediction in ungauged rivers, such as equifinality and hydrologic dissimilarity of reference catchments.

Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

2015-04-01

The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model performance will decline at hourly scale with larger uncertainties. However, model comparison suggests that this physically-based distributed model (GBHM), compared with a traditional lumped model (Xin'anjiang model), shows more robust performance and larger transferability for prediction in those ungauged basins in TGR; (3) Operational test of our integrated forecasting system (TRG-INFORMS) shows that it works reasonably to simulate the flood routing in Three Gorges reservoir, indicating the accuracy of simulation of total floods generated at region scale; (4) Current operational QPF is too coarse to provide valuable information even for flood forecasting of whole TGR, thus, downscaling and high-resolution QPF are necessary to unravel the potentials of weather forecasting. Finally, according to these results, we also discuss about some possible solutions with high priority for future advanced forecasting scheme of local flash floods in TGR.

Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

2016-04-01

On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams for which the warnings are issued. This paper aims to explain how this indicator has been created and to assess its relevance with the example of the 3rd October 2015 flood. By completing this approach, the AIGA warnings may characterize not only the flood hazard but more inclusively the risk of flooding, allowing to forecast this type of event. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J., & Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Estimating flow duration curve in the humid tropics: a disaggregation approach in Hawaiian catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chris, Leong; Yoshiyuki, Yokoo

2017-04-01

Islands that are concentrated in developing countries have poor hydrological research data which contribute to stress on hydrological resources due to unmonitored human influence and negligence. As studies in islands are relatively young, there is a need to understand these stresses and influences by building block research specifically targeting islands. The flow duration curve (FDC) is a simple start up hydrological tool that can be used in initial studies of islands. This study disaggregates the FDC into three sections, top, middle and bottom and in each section runoff is estimated with simple hydrological models. The study is based on Hawaiian Islands, toward estimating runoff in ungauged island catchments in the humid tropics. Runoff estimations in the top and middle sections include using the Curve Number (CN) method and the Regime Curve (RC) respectively. The bottom section is presented as a separate study from this one. The results showed that for majority of the catchments the RC can be used for estimations in the middle section of the FDC. It also showed that in order for the CN method to make stable estimations, it had to be calibrated. This study identifies simple methodologies that can be useful for making runoff estimations in ungauged island catchments.

What Do They Have in Common? Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes in Ungauged Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Radny, D.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

The spatial correlation of daily streamflows represents a statistical index encapsulating the similarity between hydrographs at two arbitrary catchment outlets. In this work, a process-based analytical framework is utilized to investigate the hydrological drivers of streamflow spatial correlation through an extensive application to 78 pairs of stream gauges belonging to 13 unregulated catchments in the eastern United States. The analysis provides insight on how the observed heterogeneity of the physical processes that control flow dynamics ultimately affect streamflow correlation and spatial patterns of flow regimes. Despite the variability of recession properties across the study catchments, the impact of heterogeneous drainage rates on the streamflow spatial correlation is overwhelmed by the spatial variability of frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events. Overall, model performances are satisfactory, with root mean square errors between modeled and observed streamflow spatial correlation below 10% in most cases. We also propose a method for estimating streamflow correlation in the absence of discharge data, which proves useful to predict streamflow regimes in ungauged areas. The method consists in setting a minimum threshold on the modeled flow correlation to individuate hydrologically similar sites. Catchment outlets that are most correlated (ρ>0.9) are found to be characterized by analogous streamflow distributions across a broad range of flow regimes.

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Integrated Water and Sanitation Risk Assessment and Modeling in the Upper Sonora River basin (Northwest, Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A. S.; Robles-Morua, A.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Auer, M. T.

2011-12-01

Studies that integrate human dimensions and the biophysical characteristics of watersheds are necessary to meet the challenge of sustainable water resources development. In this project, we integrated perspectives from sociology, hydrology, and environmental engineering to examine and suggest solutions for managing waterborne disease risks associated with wastewater contamination in the Sonora River basin (SRB), a semiarid rural basin in northwest Mexico. This research consisted of four sub-projects. First, we assessed the perceptions of risks associated with wastewater contamination of water resources in rural communities in the SRB through a series of semi-structured interviews Results from this study indicate that there are major differences in risk perceptions among health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Government officials and lay citizens tend to underestimate the severity of the problems related to water related risks. Second, a fully distributed hydrologic model was used to make streamflow predictions in the un-gauged SRB. Synthetic flows generated from the hydrologic model were used to evaluate pollutant transport processes associated with wastewater loadings to the Sonora River. The hydrologic model revealed that the high degree of spatio-temporal variability of runoff in the SRB is associated with links between runoff generation mechanisms and land-atmosphere interactions. Third, a surface water quality model was used to assess the impact of wastewater discharges and develop pathogen contamination indicators in two sites along the Sonora River. To parameterize the water quality model, pathogenic indicator loadings and removal rates were estimated, along with their uncertainty. Results from the water quality modeling show regions in the watershed that may be exceeding pathogenic standards, but also that uncertainty in model parameters requires a probabilistic approach for estimating risks. Finally, a workshop was conducted to explore the use of participatory modeling frameworks in less developed regions. Results indicate that respondents agreed strongly with the hydrologic and water quality modeling methodologies presented and considered the modeling results useful. Our results also show that participatory modeling approaches can have short term impacts as seen in the changes in water-related risk perceptions. In total, these projects revealed that water resources management solutions need to take into account variations across the human landscape (i.e. risk perceptions) and variations in the biophysical response of watersheds to natural phenomena (i.e. streamflow generation) and to anthropogenic activities (i.e. contaminant fate and transport). In addition, this work underscores the notion that sustainable water resources solutions need to contend with uncertainty in our understanding and predictions of human perceptions and biophysical systems.

Assessment of Spatial Transferability of Process-Based Hydrological Model Parameters in Two Neighboring Catchments in the Himalayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepal, S.

2016-12-01

The spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process-oriented distributed J2000 hydrological model was investigated in two glaciated sub-catchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The basins had a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986-1991) and validated (1992-1997) in the Dudh Koshi sub-catchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001-2009). A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was carried out for both sub-catchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both sub-catchments, including baseflow and medium range flows (rising and recession limbs). The efficiency results according to both Nash-Sutcliffe and the coefficient of determination was above 0.84 in both cases. The sensitivity analysis showed that the same parameter was most sensitive for Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) and Log Nash-Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies in both catchments. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderate and low sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) result suggest that most of the time the observed runoff is within the parameter uncertainty range, although occasionally the values lie outside the uncertainty range, especially during flood peaks and more in the Tamor. This may be due to the limited input data resulting from the small number of precipitation stations and lack of representative stations in high-altitude areas, as well as to model structural uncertainty. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighboring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying process-based J2000 model be to the ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.

Data analysis and hydrological modelling of frozen ground, shallow groundwater formation and river flow co-evolution at small watersheds of Russia in continuous, discontinuous permafrost and the zone of seasonal ground freezing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedeva, Luidmila; Semenova, Olga

2015-04-01

Frozen ground distribution and its properties control the presence of aquifuge and aquifers. Correct representation of interactions between infiltrating water, ground ice, permafrost or seasonal freezing table and river flow is challenging for hydrological modelling in cold regions. Observational data of ground water levels, thawing depths in different landscapes or topographical units and meteorological information with high temporal and spatial resolution are required to analyze seasonal and interannual evolution of groundwater in active layer and its linkage to river flow. Such data are extremely rare in vast and remote regions of Russia. There are few historical datasets inherited from former USSR containing unique collection of long-term daily observations of water fluxes, frozen ground characteristics and groundwater levels. The data from three water balance stations were employed in our study with overall goal to analyze co-evolution of thawing layer, shallow groundwater and river flow by data processing and process-based modelling. Three instrumented small watersheds are situated in continuous, discontinuous permafrost zones and at the territory with seasonally frozen ground. They present different climates, landscapes and geology. The Kolyma water-balance station is located in mountainous region of continuous permafrost in North-Eastern Russia. The watershed area of 22 km2 is covered by bare rocks, mountain tundra, sparse larch forest and wet larch forest depending on slope aspect and inclination. The Bomnak water-balance station (22 km2) is situated in discontinuous permafrost zone in upper part of the Amur River basin and characterized by unmerged permafrost. Dominant landscapes are birch forest and bogs. The Pribaltiyskaya water-balance station (40 km2) located in Latvia is characterized by seasonally frozen ground and is covered by mixed forest and arable land. Process-based Hydrograph model was employed in the study. The model was developed specifically for cold regions. It describes all essential processes of land hydrological cycle including detailed algorithm of water and heat dynamics in soil accounting for water phase change. The model parameters relate to basin characteristics and could be assessed in the field. It allows avoiding parameters calibration and transferring model parameterization schemes to ungauged basins in similar conditions. The model was applied and tested against internal states of watersheds (snow, soil thawing/freezing, etc.) and runoff. Different role of frozen ground in formation of shallow groundwater and river flow in continuous, discontinuous and non-permafrost area is highlighted by comparative analysis of observations and simulations in three studied basins. The changes of fractional input of surface and subsurface components into river flow during warm seasons were assessed for each watershed. We concluded that verified hydrological model with meaningful parameters that adequately describe river flow formation and internal hydrological processes and ground freezing/thawing in the catchment could be used in scenario simulations, future predictions and transferring the results between scales.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing Macro Scale Patterns Of Uncertainty For Improved Operational Flood Forecasting Over The Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Hong, Y.

2015-12-01

The macro scale patterns of simulated streamflow errors are studied in order to characterize uncertainty in a hydrologic modeling system forced with the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS; http://mrms.ou.edu) quantitative precipitation estimates for flood forecasting over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The hydrologic model is centerpiece of the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrograph (FLASH; http://flash.ou.edu) real-time system. The hydrologic model is implemented at 1-km/5-min resolution to generate estimates of streamflow. Data from the CONUS-wide stream gauge network of the United States' Geological Survey (USGS) were used as a reference to evaluate the discrepancies with the hydrological model predictions. Streamflow errors were studied at the event scale with particular focus on the peak flow magnitude and timing. A total of 2,680 catchments over CONUS and 75,496 events from a 10-year period are used for the simulation diagnostic analysis. Associations between streamflow errors and geophysical factors were explored and modeled. It is found that hydro-climatic factors and radar coverage could explain significant underestimation of peak flow in regions of complex terrain. Furthermore, the statistical modeling of peak flow errors shows that other geophysical factors such as basin geomorphometry, pedology, and land cover/use could also provide explanatory information. Results from this research demonstrate the utility of uncertainty characterization in providing guidance to improve model adequacy, parameter estimates, and input quality control. Likewise, the characterization of uncertainty enables probabilistic flood forecasting that can be extended to ungauged locations.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of land surface parameters using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M.; Nijssen, Bart; Wagener, Thorsten

2007-06-01

Current land surface models use increasingly complex descriptions of the processes that they represent. Increase in complexity is accompanied by an increase in the number of model parameters, many of which cannot be measured directly at large spatial scales. A Monte Carlo framework was used to evaluate the sensitivity and identifiability of ten parameters controlling surface and subsurface runoff generation in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Using the Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT), parameter sensitivities were studied for four U.S. watersheds along a hydroclimatic gradient, based on a 20-year data set developed for the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Results showed that simulated streamflows are sensitive to three parameters when evaluated with different objective functions. Sensitivity of the infiltration parameter (b) and the drainage parameter (exp) were strongly related to the hydroclimatic gradient. The placement of vegetation roots played an important role in the sensitivity of model simulations to the thickness of the second soil layer (thick2). Overparameterization was found in the base flow formulation indicating that a simplified version could be implemented. Parameter sensitivity was more strongly dictated by climatic gradients than by changes in soil properties. Results showed how a complex model can be reduced to a more parsimonious form, leading to a more identifiable model with an increased chance of successful regionalization to ungauged basins. Although parameter sensitivities are strictly valid for VIC, this model is representative of a wider class of macroscale hydrological models. Consequently, the results and methodology will have applicability to other hydrological models.

A Hybrid of Optical Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modeling Improves Water Balance Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleason, Colin J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wang, Jida

2018-01-01

Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally. Remote sensing and water balance modeling are frequently cited as potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on these same in-decline gauge data to make accurate discharge estimates. A different approach is therefore needed, and we here combine remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at-many-stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge over the Lower Nile. Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 87 Landsat images and AMHG (1984-2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the model, all without using gauge data. The resulting tuned modeled hydrograph shows a large improvement in flow magnitude: validation of the tuned monthly hydrograph against a historical gauge (1978-1984) yields an RMSE of 439 m3/s (40.8%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order-of-magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: tuned flows have a 1-2 month wet season lag and a negative base flow bias. Accounting for this 2 month lag yields a hydrograph RMSE of 270 m3/s (25.7%). Thus, our results coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modeling of ungauged flows, especially as developments in cloud computing for remote sensing make our method easily applicable to any basin. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

An empirical method for approximating stream baseflow time series using groundwater table fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshgi, Ali; Schmitter, Petra; Babovic, Vladan; Chui, Ting Fong May

2014-11-01

Developing reliable methods to estimate stream baseflow has been a subject of interest due to its importance in catchment response and sustainable watershed management. However, to date, in the absence of complex numerical models, baseflow is most commonly estimated using statistically derived empirical approaches that do not directly incorporate physically-meaningful information. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools such as Genetic Programming (GP) offer unique capabilities to reduce the complexities of hydrological systems without losing relevant physical information. This study presents a simple-to-use empirical equation to estimate baseflow time series using GP so that minimal data is required and physical information is preserved. A groundwater numerical model was first adopted to simulate baseflow for a small semi-urban catchment (0.043 km2) located in Singapore. GP was then used to derive an empirical equation relating baseflow time series to time series of groundwater table fluctuations, which are relatively easily measured and are physically related to baseflow generation. The equation was then generalized for approximating baseflow in other catchments and validated for a larger vegetation-dominated basin located in the US (24 km2). Overall, this study used GP to propose a simple-to-use equation to predict baseflow time series based on only three parameters: minimum daily baseflow of the entire period, area of the catchment and groundwater table fluctuations. It serves as an alternative approach for baseflow estimation in un-gauged systems when only groundwater table and soil information is available, and is thus complementary to other methods that require discharge measurements.

Water balance of a lake with floodplain buffering: Lake Tana, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessie, Mekete; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Adgo, Enyew; Deckers, Jozef; Poesen, Jean; Nyssen, Jan

2015-03-01

Lakes are very important components of the earth's hydrological cycle, providing a variety of services for humans and ecosystem functioning. For a sustainable use of lakes, a substantial body of knowledge on their water balance is vital. We present here a detailed daily water balance analysis for Lake Tana, the largest lake in Ethiopia and the source of the Blue Nile. Rainfall on the lake is determined by Thiessen polygon procedure, open water evaporation is estimated by the Penman-combination equation and observed inflows for the gauged catchments as well as outflow data at the two lake outlets are directly used. Runoff from ungauged catchments is estimated using a simple rainfall-runoff model and runoff coefficients. Hillslope catchments and floodplains are treated separately, which makes this study unique compared to previous water balance studies. Impact of the floodplain on the lake water balance is analyzed by conducting scenario-based studies. We found an average yearly abstraction of 420 × 106 m3 or 6% of river inflows to the lake by the floodplain in 2012 and 2013. Nearly 60% of the inflow to the lake is from the Gilgel Abay River. Simulated lake levels compare well with the observed lake levels (R2 = 0.95) and the water balance can be closed with a closure error of 82 mm/year (3.5% of the total lake inflow). This study demonstrates the importance of floodplains and their influence on the water balance of the lake and the need of incorporating the effects of floodplains and water abstraction for irrigation to improve predictions.

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagener, T.; Hogue, T.; Schaake, J.; Duan, Q.; Gupta, H.; Andreassian, V.; Hall, A.; Leavesley, G.

2006-01-01

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrological models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrological basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modellers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, HEPEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community, and briefly states future directions.

Assessing the hydropower potential of ungauged watersheds in Iceland using hydrological modeling and satellite retrieved snow cover images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David

2015-04-01

About 80% of the domestic energy production in Iceland comes from renewable energies. Hydropower accounts for about 20% this production, representing about 75% of the total electricity production in Iceland. In 2008 total electricity production from hydropower was about 12.5 TWh a-1, making Iceland a worldwide leader in hydropower production per capita. Furthermore, the total potential of hydroelectricity in Iceland is estimated to amount up to 220 TWh a-1. In this regard, hydrological modelling is an essential tool to adapt a sustainable management of water resources and estimate the potential of possible new sites for hydropower production. We used the conceptual lumped Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model (HBV) to estimate the potential of hydropower production in two remote areas in north-eastern Iceland (Leirdalshraun, a 274 km2 area above 595 m asl and Hafralónsá, a 946 km2 area above 235 m asl). The model parameters were determined by calibrating the model with discharge data from gauged sub catchments. Satellite snow cover images were used to constrain melt parameters of the model and assure adequate modelling of snow melt in the ungauged areas. This was particularly valuable to adequately estimate the contribution of snow melt, rainfall runoff and groundwater intrusion from glaciers outside the topographic boundaries of the selected watersheds. Runoff from the entire area potentially used for hydropower exploitation was estimated using the parameter sets of the gauged sub-catchments. Additionally, snow melt from the ungauged areas was validated with satellite based snow cover images, revealing a robust simulation of snow melt in the entire area. Based on the hydrological modelling the total amount of snow melt and rainfall runoff available in Leirdalshraun and Hafralónsá amounts up to 700 M m3 a-1 and 1000 M m3 a-1, respectively. These results reveal that the total hydropower potential of the two sites amounts up to 1.2 TWh a-1 hydroelectricity, accounting for about 10% of the current production in Iceland. These result are of eminent importance to embed sustainable and resilient based water management in discussions concerning future plans of national energy production.

Symmetry enhancement of extremal horizons in D  =  5 supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayani, U.

2018-06-01

We consider the near-horizon geometry of supersymmetric extremal black holes in un-gauged and gauged 5-dimensional supergravity, coupled to abelian vector multiplets. By analyzing the global properties of the Killing spinors, we prove that the near-horizon geometries undergo a supersymmetry enhancement. This follows from a set of generalized Lichnerowicz-type theorems we establish, together with an index theory argument. As a consequence, these solutions always admit a symmetry group.

Global Maps of Temporal Streamflow Characteristics Based on Observations from Many Small Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, H.; van Dijk, A.; de Roo, A.

2014-12-01

Streamflow (Q) estimation in ungauged catchments is one of the greatest challenges facing hydrologists. We used observed Q from approximately 7500 small catchments (<10,000 km2) around the globe to train neural network ensembles to estimate temporal Q distribution characteristics from climate and physiographic characteristics of the catchments. In total 17 Q characteristics were selected, including mean annual Q, baseflow index, and a number of flow percentiles. Training coefficients of determination for the estimation of the Q characteristics ranged from 0.56 for the baseflow recession constant to 0.93 for the Q timing. Overall, climate indices dominated among the predictors. Predictors related to soils and geology were the least important, perhaps due to data quality. The trained neural network ensembles were subsequently applied spatially over the ice-free land surface including ungauged regions, resulting in global maps of the Q characteristics (0.125° spatial resolution). These maps possess several unique features: 1) they represent purely observation-driven estimates; 2) are based on an unprecedentedly large set of catchments; and 3) have associated uncertainty estimates. The maps can be used for various hydrological applications, including the diagnosis of macro-scale hydrological models. To demonstrate this, the produced maps were compared to equivalent maps derived from the simulated daily Q of five macro-scale hydrological models, highlighting various opportunities for improvement in model Q behavior. The produced dataset is available for download.

A Flash Flood Study on the Small Montaneous River Catchments in Western Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Győri, Maria-Mihaela; Haidu, Ionel; Humbert, Joël

2013-04-01

The present study focuses on flash flood modeling on several mountaneous catchments situated in Western Romania by the use of two methodologies, when rainfall and catchment characteristics are known. Hence, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Method and the Rational Method will be employed for the generation of the 1%, 2% and 10% historical flash flood hydrographs on the basis of data spanning from 1989-2009. The SCS Method has been applied on the three gauged catchments in the study area: Petris, Troas and Monorostia making use of the existing interconnection between GIS and the rainfall-runoff models. The DEM, soil data and land use preprocessing in GIS allowed a determination of the hydrologic parameters needed for the rainfall-runoff model, with special emphasis on determining the time of concentration, Lag time and the weighted Curve Number according to Antecedent Moisture Conditions II, adapted for the Romanian territory. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model (Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling System) facilitates the historical 1%, 2% and 10% flash flood hydrograph generation for the three afore mentioned watersheds. The model is calibrated against measured streamflow data from the three existing gauging stations. The results show a good match between the resulted hydrographs and the observed hydrographs under the form of the Peak Weighted Error RMS values. The hydrographs generated by surface runoff on the ungauged catchments in the area is based on an automation of a workflow in GIS, built with ArcGIS Model Builder graphical interface, as a large part of the functions needed were available as ArcGIS tools. The several components of this model calculate: the runoff depth in mm, the runoff coefficient, the travel time and finally the discharge module which is an application of the rational method, allowing the discharge computation for every cell within the catchment. The result consists of discharges for each isochrones that will be subsequently interpolated in order to obtain the hydrograph of the historical flash floods. The two methodologies employed offer the hydrologist the opportunity of computing the historical hydrographs be it on a section of the river at choice, or for every affluent within the small river basins studied, the graphical data being easily accessed both in GIS and HEC-HMS. The peak discharge values of the main rivers as well as those of their tributaries are of great importance in establishing the hydrologic hazard under the form of floodplain maps that are inexistent for the studied watersheds. Key words: flash flood modeling, ungauged catchments, GIS, HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model. Aknowledgements This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/76841 with the title "Modern Doctoral Studies: Internationalization and Interdisciplinarity".

Bogomolny equations in certain generalized baby BPS Skyrme models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stępień, Ł. T.

2018-01-01

By using the concept of strong necessary conditions (CSNCs), we derive Bogomolny equations and Bogomol’nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield (BPS) bounds for two certain modifications of the baby BPS Skyrme model: the nonminimal coupling to the gauge field and the k-deformed ungauged model. In particular, we study how the Bogomolny equations and the equation for the potential reflect these two modifications. In both examples, the CSNC method appears to be a very useful tool. We also find certain localized solutions of these Bogomolny equations.

Water Quality in the High Plains Aquifer, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, Jason J.; McMahon, Peter B.; Dennehy, Kevin; Qi, Sharon L.

2009-01-01

This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2004 assessment of water quality in the High Plains aquifer. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings for principal and other aquifers and major river basins across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, regional, State, and national issues. Conditions in the aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as drinking-water quality, the effects of agricultural practices on water quality, source-water protection, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of ground water in areas near where they live and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the region and the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer summarized in this report are discussed in greater detail in other reports that can be accessed in Appendix 1 of http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa). This report accompanies the detailed and technical report of water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer 'Water-quality assessment of the High Plains aquifer, 1999-2004' (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/)

A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. Also the forecasts showed on average a good reliability, and the CRPSS helped identifying regions to focus on for future improvements. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a good prospective as an operational system, as it has demonstrated its significant potential to contribute to the reduction of flood-related losses in Africa by providing national and international aid organizations timely with medium-range flood forecast information. However, issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Suspended sediment load below open-cast mines for ungauged river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuksina, L.

2011-12-01

Placer mines are located in river valleys along river benches or river ancient channels. Frequently the existing mining sites are characterized by low contribution of the environmental technologies. Therefore open-pit mining alters stream hydrology and sediment processes and enhances sediment transport. The most serious environmental consequences of the sediment yield increase occur in the rivers populated by salmon fish community because salmon species prefer clean water with low turbidity. For instance, placer mining located in Kamchatka peninsula (Far East of Russia) which is regarded to be the last global gene pool of wild salmon Oncorhynchus threatens rivers ecosystems significantly. Impact assessment is limited by the hydrological observations scarcity. Gauging network is rare and in many cases whole basins up to 200 km length miss any hydrological data. The main purpose of the work is elaboration of methods for sediment yield estimation in rivers under mining impact and implementation of corresponding calculations. Subjects of the study are rivers of the Vivenka river basin where open-cast platinum mine is situated. It's one of the largest platinum mines in Russian Federation and in the world. This mine is the most well-studied in Kamchatka (research covers a period from 2003 to 2011). Empirical - analytical model of suspended sediment yield estimation was elaborated for rivers draining mine's territories. Sediment delivery at the open-cast mine happens due to the following sediment processes: - erosion in the channel diversions; - soil erosion on the exposed hillsides; - effluent from settling ponds; - mine waste water inflow; - accident mine waste water escape into rivers. Sediment washout caused by erosion was estimated by repeated measurements of the channel profiles in 2003, 2006 and 2008. Estimation of horizontal deformation rates was carried out on the basis of erosion dependence on water discharge rates, slopes and composition of sediments. Soil erosion on the exposed hillsides was estimated taking into account precipitation of various intensity and solid material washout during this period. Effluent from settling ponds was calculated on the basis of minimum anthropogenic turbidity. Its value is difference in background turbidity and minimal turbidity caused by effluent and waste water overflow. Mine waste water inflow was estimated due to actual data on water balance of purification system. Accident mine waste water escape into rivers was estimated by duration and material washout during accidents data measured during observation period. Total suspended sediment yield of rivers draining mine's territory is the sum of its components. Total sediment supply from mining site is 24.7 % from the Vivenka sediment yield. Polluted placer-mined rivers contribute about 35.4 % of the whole sediment yield of the Vivenka river. At the same time the catchment area of these rivers is less than 0.2 % from the whole Vivenka catchment area.

Hydrological regionalisation based on available hydrological information for runoff prediction at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Li, Zhijia; Zhu, Yuelong; Deng, Yuanqian; Zhang, Ke; Yao, Cheng

2018-06-01

Regionalisation provides a way of transferring hydrological information from gauged to ungauged catchments. The past few decades has seen several kinds of regionalisation approaches for catchment classification and runoff predictions. The underlying assumption is that catchments having similar catchment properties are hydrological similar. This requires the appropriate selection of catchment properties, particularly the inclusion of observed hydrological information, to explain the similarity of hydrological behaviour. We selected observable catchments properties and flow duration curves to reflect the hydrological behaviour, and to regionalize rainfall-runoff response for runoff prediction. As a case study, we investigated 15 catchments located in the Yangtze and Yellow River under multiple hydro-climatic conditions. A clustering scheme was developed to separate the catchments into 4 homogeneous regions by employing catchment properties including hydro-climatic attributes, topographic attributes and land cover etc. We utilized daily flow duration curves as the indicator of hydrological response and interpreted hydrological similarity by root mean square errors. The combined analysis of similarity in catchment properties and hydrological response suggested that catchments in the same homogenous region were hydrological similar. A further validation was conducted by establishing a rainfall-runoff coaxial correlation diagram for each catchment. A common coaxial correlation diagram was generated for each homogenous region. The performances of most coaxial correlation diagrams met the national standard. The coaxial correlation diagram can be transferred within the homogeneous region for runoff prediction in ungauged catchments at an hourly time scale.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

An Ultra-high Resolution Synthetic Precipitation Data for Ungauged Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hong-Joong; Choi, Kyung-Min; Oh, Jai-Ho

2018-05-01

Despite the enormous damage caused by record heavy rainfall, the amount of precipitation in areas without observation points cannot be known precisely. One way to overcome these difficulties is to estimate meteorological data at ungauged sites. In this study, we have used observation data over Seoul city to calculate high-resolution (250-meter resolution) synthetic precipitation over a 10-year (2005-2014) period. Furthermore, three cases are analyzed by evaluating the rainfall intensity and performing statistical analysis over the 10-year period. In the case where the typhoon "Meari" passed to the west coast during 28-30 June 2011, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.93 for seven validation points, which implies that the temporal correlation between the observed precipitation and synthetic precipitation was very good. It can be confirmed that the time series of observation and synthetic precipitation in the period almost completely matches the observed rainfall. On June 28-29, 2011, the estimation of 10 to 30 mm h-1 of continuous strong precipitation was correct. In addition, it is shown that the synthetic precipitation closely follows the observed precipitation for all three cases. Statistical analysis of 10 years of data reveals a very high correlation coefficient between synthetic precipitation and observed rainfall (0.86). Thus, synthetic precipitation data show good agreement with the observations. Therefore, the 250-m resolution synthetic precipitation amount calculated in this study is useful as basic data in weather applications, such as urban flood detection.

Characterising the hydrological regime of an ungauged temporary river system: a case study.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Ersilia; De Girolamo, Anna Maria; Barca, Emanuele; Ielpo, Pierina; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2017-06-01

Temporary streams are characterised by specific hydrological regimes, which influence ecosystem processes, groundwater and surface water interactions, sediment regime, nutrient delivery, water quality and ecological status. This paper presents a methodology to characterise and classify the regime of a temporary river in Southern Italy based on hydrological indicators (HIs) computed with long-term daily flow records. By using a principal component analysis (PCA), a set of non-redundant indices were identified describing the main characteristics of the hydrological regime in the study area. The indicators identified were the annual maximum 30- and 90-day mean (DH4 and DH5), the number of zero flow days (DL6), flow permanence (MF) and the 6-month seasonal predictability of dry periods (SD6). A methodology was also tested to estimate selected HIs in ungauged river reaches. Watershed characteristics such as catchment area, gauging station elevation, mean watershed slope, mean annual rainfall, land use, soil hydraulic conductivity and available water content were derived for each site. Selected indicators were then linked to the catchment characteristics using a regression analysis. Finally, MF and SD6 were used to classify the river reaches on the basis of their degree of intermittency. The methodology presented in this paper constitutes a useful tool for ecologists and water resource managers in the Water Framework Directive implementation process, which requires a characterisation of the hydrological regime and a 'river type' classification for all water bodies.

Using the PDSI to Estimate Summer Stream Discharge in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Implications for 20th Century Riparian Habitat Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persico, L.; Meyer, G. A.

2013-12-01

Small streams at lower elevations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) create riparian habitat in an otherwise dry environment. Riparian area can be expanded by beaver damming, which increases channel wetted area and local water tables, and allows fine-grained organic-rich sediment to accumulate. However, increases can be countered by severe drought. The loss of riparian area is potentially greatest in small basins dependent on snowpack for base flow, where prolonged severe drought may reduce base flow to zero. Discharge records are often lacking for basins < 20 km^2, making it difficult to directly examine how climate has impacted flow. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a useful proxy for large-scale variations in available moisture. PDSI values for climate divisions are estimated from spatially weighted weather station measurements of temperature and precipitation. We use divisional PDSI values to estimate discharge on GYE small streams since 1900. USGS stream-gauge sites were regressed with the corresponding PDSI for each climate division. We also use a regional (2.5° by 2.5°) reconstruction of the PDSI based on 30 tree ring chronologies (Cook et al., 2004) to estimate discharge during the most severe two and ten year droughts (AD 1150-1151 and 805-796, respectively) during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). The MCA is a period of high climate variability and widespread drought in the GYE. Significant correlations between stream discharge and the PDSI occur during the late summer and early fall and the strongest correlation between discharge and the PDSI occurs for the 3-month PDSI average centered on August. Stream-gauge records with bootstrapped correlation values greater than 0.65 were chosen for regression analyses. To estimate stream flows for ungauged stream reaches, stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed using measured stream flows and independent basin characteristics. Basin area and mean elevation are significant predictors of discharge (α < 0.05). The 1930s Dust Bowl drought was one of the most severe droughts in the past 300 years; from 1934-1935, average August discharge was reduced by 25-40% with respect to the anomalously wet early 20th century pluvial. Discharge estimates using reconstructed PDSI values for the 2- and 10-year MCA droughts (PDSI = -6 and -5, respectively) indicate that 60% of stream reaches where beaver were active in the late Holocene became ephemeral in these droughts. This analysis is supported by observations during the extreme drought of the 2000s, when ephemeral flow occurred along streams with known historical beaver activity in northern Yellowstone. Model predictions indicate that by 2030-2039 the GYE will endure persistent severe drought (mean annual PDSI = -4 to -6) (Dai, 2011), thus riparian area is likely to decrease in the coming decades. The early 20th century has been suggested to be an ideal reference for riparian habitat restoration despite anomalously wet conditions unlike current or likely future climate. Future efforts to restore riparian habitat by reducing elk browsing and increasing beaver damming will be hampered by reduced flows on small streams.

Atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin - Amissions, deposition and transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, G.B.; Goolsby, D.A.; Battaglin, W.A.; Stensland, G.J.

2000-01-01

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen has been cited as a major factor in the nitrogen saturation of forests in the north-eastern United States and as a contributor to the eutrophication of coastal waters, including the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Sources of nitrogen emissions and the resulting spatial patterns of nitrogen deposition within the Mississippi River Basin, however, have not been fully documented. An assessment of atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin was therefore conducted in 1998-1999 to: (1) evaluate the forms in which nitrogen is deposited from the atmosphere; (2) quantify the spatial distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition throughout the basin; and (3) relate locations of emission sources to spatial deposition patterns to evaluate atmospheric transport. Deposition data collected through the NADP/NTN (National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network) and CASTNet (Clean Air Status and Trends Network) were used for this analysis. NO(x) Tier 1 emission data by county was obtained for 1992 from the US Environmental Protection Agency (Emissions Trends Viewer CD, 1985-1995, version 1.0, September 1996) and NH3 emissions data was derived from the 1992 Census of Agriculture (US Department of Commerce. Census of Agriculture, US Summary and County Level Data, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Geographic Area series, 1995:1b) or the National Agricultural Statistics Service (US Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service Historical Data. Accessed 7/98 at URL, 1998. http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/hisdata.htm). The highest rates of wet deposition of NO3- were in the north-eastern part of the basin, downwind of electric utility plants and urban areas, whereas the highest rates of wet deposition of NH4+ were in Iowa, near the center of intensive agricultural activities in the Midwest. The lowest rates of atmospheric nitrogen deposition were on the western (windward) side of the basin, which suggests that most of the nitrogen deposited within the basin is derived from internal sources. Atmospheric transport eastward across the basin boundary is greater for NO3- than NH4+, but a significant amount of NH4+ is likely to be transported out of the basin through the formation of (NH4)2SO4 and NH4NO3 particles - a process that greatly increases the atmospheric residence time of NH4+. This process is also a likely factor in the atmospheric transport of nitrogen from the Midwest to upland forest regions in the North-East, such as the western Adirondack region of New York, where NH4+ constitutes 38% of the total wet deposition of N. Copyright (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Factors influencing stream baseflow transit times in tropical montane watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Villers, Lyssette E.; Geissert, Daniel R.; Holwerda, Friso; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2016-04-01

Stream water mean transit time (MTT) is a fundamental hydrologic parameter that integrates the distribution of sources, flow paths, and storages present in catchments. However, in the tropics little MTT work has been carried out, despite its usefulness for providing important information on watershed functioning at different spatial scales in (largely) ungauged basins. In particular, very few studies have quantified stream MTTs or have related these to catchment characteristics in tropical montane regions. Here we examined topographic, land use/cover and soil hydraulic controls on baseflow transit times for nested catchments (0.1-34 km2) within a humid mountainous region, underlain by volcanic soil (Andisols) in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico). We used a 2-year record of bi-weekly isotopic composition of precipitation and stream baseflow data to estimate MTT. Land use/cover and topographic parameters (catchment area and form, drainage density, slope gradient and length) were derived from geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Soil water retention characteristics, and depth and permeability of the soil-bedrock interface were obtained from intensive field measurements and laboratory analysis. Results showed that baseflow MTTs ranged between 1.2 and 2.7 years across the 12 study catchments. Overall, MTTs across scales were mainly controlled by catchment slope and the permeability observed at the soil-bedrock interface. In association with topography, catchment form and the depth to the soil-bedrock interface were also identified as important features influencing baseflow MTTs. The greatest differences in MTTs were found both within groups of small (0.1-1.5 km2) and large (14-34 km2) catchments. Interestingly, the longest stream MTTs were found in the headwater cloud forest catchments.

Discharge estimation for the Upper Brahmaputra River in the Tibetan Plateau using multi-source remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q.; Long, D.; Du, M.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

River discharge is among the most important hydrological variables of hydrologists' concern, as it links drinking water supply, irrigation, and flood forecast together. Despite its importance, there are extremely limited gauging stations across most of alpine regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP) known as Asia's water towers. Use of remote sensing combined with partial in situ discharge measurements is a promising way of retrieving river discharge over ungauged or poorly gauged basins. Successful discharge estimation depends largely on accurate water width (area) and water level, but it is challenging to obtain these variables for alpine regions from a single satellite platform due to narrow river channels, complex terrain, and limited observations. Here, we used high-spatial-resolution images from Landsat series to derive water area, and satellite altimetry (Jason 2) to derive water level for the Upper Brahmaputra River (UBR) in the TP with narrow river width (less than 400 m in most occasions). We performed waveform retracking using a 50% Threshold and Ice-1 Combined algorithm (TIC) developed in this study to obtain accurate water level measurements. The discharge was estimated well using a range of derived formulas including the power function between water level and discharge, and that between water area and discharge suitable for the triangular cross-section around the Nuxia gauging station in the UBR. Results showed that the power function using Jason 2-derived water levels after performing waveform retracking performed best, showing an overall NSE value of 0.92. The proposed approach for remotely sensed river discharge is effective in the UBR and possibly other alpine rivers globally.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

Estimating catchment-scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Mengistu, Zelalem

2016-12-01

In this study, we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of catchment-scale storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff. The parameters are hence estimated prior to model calibration against runoff. The new storage routine is implemented in the parameter parsimonious distance distribution dynamics (DDD) model and has been tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevation and landscape type. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures (DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage) were compared. Little loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion of 0.73 was obtained using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.75 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion was 0.80 and 0.81 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recession characteristics was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine. The parameters of the proposed storage routine are found to be significantly correlated to catchment characteristics, which is potentially useful for predictions in ungauged basins.

How much expert knowledge is it worth to put in conceptual hydrological models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonetti, Manuel; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Both modellers and experimentalists agree on using expert knowledge to improve our conceptual hydrological simulations on ungauged basins. However, they use expert knowledge differently for both hydrologically mapping the landscape and parameterising a given hydrological model. Modellers use generally very simplified (e.g. topography-based) mapping approaches and put most of the knowledge for constraining the model by defining parameter and process relational rules. In contrast, experimentalists tend to invest all their detailed and qualitative knowledge about processes to obtain a spatial distribution of areas with different dominant runoff generation processes (DRPs) as realistic as possible, and for defining plausible narrow value ranges for each model parameter. Since, most of the times, the modelling goal is exclusively to simulate runoff at a specific site, even strongly simplified hydrological classifications can lead to satisfying results due to equifinality of hydrological models, overfitting problems and the numerous uncertainty sources affecting runoff simulations. Therefore, to test to which extent expert knowledge can improve simulation results under uncertainty, we applied a typical modellers' modelling framework relying on parameter and process constraints defined based on expert knowledge to several catchments on the Swiss Plateau. To map the spatial distribution of the DRPs, mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge were used. Simulation results highlighted the potential added value of using all the expert knowledge available on a catchment. Also, combinations of event types and landscapes, where even a simplified mapping approach can lead to satisfying results, were identified. Finally, the uncertainty originated by the different mapping approaches was compared with the one linked to meteorological input data and catchment initial conditions.

Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L. E.

2013-12-01

Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS forcing 25x25 km2, FAO soil map 1:5000000) using parameters obtained with high resolution information (REGNIE forcing 1x1 km2, BUEK soil map 1:1000000) in different climatic regions indicate the potential of MPR for prediction in data-scarce regions. In this presentation, we will also discuss how the transferability of global model parameters across scales and locations helps to identify deficiencies in model structure and regionalization functions.

Identifiability of altimetry-based rating curve parameters in function of river morphological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Adrien; André Garambois, Pierre; Calmant, Stéphane; Paiva, Rodrigo; Walter, Collischonn; Santos da Silva, Joecila; Medeiros Moreira, Daniel; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Seyler, Frédérique; Monnier, Jérôme

2016-04-01

Estimating river discharge for ungauged river reaches from satellite measurements is not straightforward given the nonlinearity of flow behavior with respect to measurable and non measurable hydraulic parameters. As a matter of facts, current satellite datasets do not give access to key parameters such as river bed topography and roughness. A unique set of almost one thousand altimetry-based rating curves was built by fit of ENVISAT and Jason-2 water stages with discharges obtained from the MGB-IPH rainfall-runoff model in the Amazon basin. These rated discharges were successfully validated towards simulated discharges (Ens = 0.70) and in-situ discharges (Ens = 0.71) and are not mission-dependent. The rating curve writes Q = a(Z-Z0)b*sqrt(S), with Z the water surface elevation and S its slope gained from satellite altimetry, a and b power law coefficient and exponent and Z0 the river bed elevation such as Q(Z0) = 0. For several river reaches in the Amazon basin where ADCP measurements are available, the Z0 values are fairly well validated with a relative error lower than 10%. The present contribution aims at relating the identifiability and the physical meaning of a, b and Z0given various hydraulic and geomorphologic conditions. Synthetic river bathymetries sampling a wide range of rivers and inflow discharges are used to perform twin experiments. A shallow water model is run for generating synthetic satellite observations, and then rating curve parameters are determined for each river section thanks to a MCMC algorithm. Thanks to twin experiments, it is shown that rating curve formulation with water surface slope, i.e. closer from Manning equation form, improves parameter identifiability. The compensation between parameters is limited, especially for reaches with little water surface variability. Rating curve parameters are analyzed for riffle and pools for small to large rivers, different river slopes and cross section shapes. It is shown that the river bed elevation Z0is systematically well identified with relative errors on the order of a few %. Eventually, these altimetry-based rating curves provide morphological parameters of river reaches that can be used as inputs into hydraulic models and a priori information that could be useful for SWOT inversion algorithms.

A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

2012-01-01

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins. ?? Author(s) 2012.

Using a Smart-phone for Collecting Discharge Data in Irrigation Furrows in Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena-Haro, S.; Lüthi, B.; Philippe, T.; Naudascher, R.; Siegfried, T.

2015-12-01

When managed effectively and sustainably crop yield in irrigated agriculture can be up to three times than in rainfed agriculture. Unsurprisingly, irrigation agriculture is globally gaining in importance. This is especially true in Africa where the share of irrigated to rainfed agriculture in terms of area cultivated is below global averages. A large-scale expansion of irrigation, nonetheless has the potential to alter the natural hydrological cycle at local up to basin scales. In all cases, a good understanding of the water balance is needed. However, and especially in the developing context, data are scarce and knowledge about the available resources is most often not present. Some of the key reasons are: a) traditional monitoring approaches do not scale in terms of costs, b) repair is difficult and c) vandalism. There is a clear need of cheaper and easy-to-use methods for gathering information on water use and water availability.We have developed a mobile device application for measuring discharge in rivers and irrigation furrows. The discharge is computed by analysing a few seconds of a movie recorded using the built-in camera. The great advantage is that the only requirement is that the field of view contains two reference markers with known scale and with known position relative to the channel geometry, a priori knowledge on the channel geometry and its roughness. The other great advantage is that the data collected (water level, surface velocity and discharge) can be sent via SMS or web-service to a central database.The app is being currently used in a formerly ungauged catchment, the Themi River, which is part of the Pangani Basin in Tanzania. Furrow leaders and community members measure furrow discharges on-farm and monitor water levels in rivers off-farm. These community members were given a smartphone and received thorough training. Additionally, off-grid members have received a mobile recharging solution. Operational Expenses of the community members who are performing crowd-sensing are fully compensated via a clear contractual relationship with a Service Center. Since the beginning of 2015, data are collected at 11 river sites and 23 furrow intakes on a daily basis. Average instrumentation costs per river/furrow site are in the order of USD 200.-. Average monthly operational costs are USD 15.- per site.

Passive microwave derived snowmelt timing: significance, spatial and temporal variability, and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semmens, Kathryn Alese

Snow accumulation and melt are dynamic features of the cryosphere indicative of a changing climate. Spring melt and refreeze timing are of particular importance due to the influence on subsequent hydrological and ecological processes, including peak runoff and green-up. To investigate the spatial and temporal variability of melt timing across a sub-arctic region (the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska/Canada) dominated by snow and lacking substantial ground instrumentation, passive microwave remote sensing was utilized to provide daily brightness temperatures (Tb) regardless of clouds and darkness. Algorithms to derive the timing of melt onset and the end of melt-refreeze, a critical transition period where the snowpack melts during the day and refreezes at night, were based on thresholds for Tb and diurnal amplitude variations (day and night difference). Tb data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (1988 to 2011) was used for analyzing YRB terrestrial snowmelt timing and for characterizing melt regime patterns for icefields in Alaska and Patagonia. Tb data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (2003 to 2010) was used for determining the occurrence of early melt events (before melt onset) associated with fog or rain on snow, for investigating the correlation between melt timing and forest fires, and for driving a flux-based snowmelt runoff model. From the SSM/I analysis: the melt-refreeze period lengthened for the majority of the YRB with later end of melt-refreeze and earlier melt onset; and positive Tb anomalies were found in recent years from glacier melt dynamics. From the AMSR-E analysis: early melt events throughout the YRB were most often associated with warm air intrusions and reflect a consistent spatial distribution; years and areas of earlier melt onset and refreeze had more forest fire occurrences suggesting melt timing's effects extend to later seasons; and satellite derived melt timing served as an effective input for model simulation of discharge in remote, ungauged snow-dominated basins. The melt detection methodology and results present a new perspective on the changing cryosphere, provide an understanding of melt's influence on other earth system processes, and develop a baseline from which to assess and evaluate future change. The temporal and spatial variability conveyed through the regional context of this research may be useful to communities in climate change adaptation planning.

Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China's mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Qinghua; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Li, Zhe

2016-10-01

Flash flooding is one of the most common natural hazards in China, particularly in mountainous areas, and usually causes heavy damage and casualties. However, the forecasting of flash flooding in mountainous regions remains challenging because of the short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This paper aims to establish a strategy for flash flood warnings in mountainous ungauged catchments across humid, semi-humid and semi-arid regions of China. First, we implement a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) in four mountainous catchments with drainage areas that ranges from 493 to 1601 km2. The results show that the GBHM can simulate flash floods appropriately in these four study catchments. We propose a method to determine the rainfall threshold for flood warning by using frequency analysis and binary classification based on long-term GBHM simulations that are forced by historical rainfall data to create a practically easy and straightforward approach for flash flood forecasting in ungauged mountainous catchments with drainage areas from tens to hundreds of square kilometers. The results show that the rainfall threshold value decreases significantly with increasing antecedent soil moisture in humid regions, while this value decreases slightly with increasing soil moisture in semi-humid and semi-arid regions. We also find that accumulative rainfall over a certain time span (or rainfall over a long time span) is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings in humid regions because the runoff is dominated by excess saturation. However, the rainfall intensity (or rainfall over a short time span) is more suitable in semi-humid and semi-arid regions because excess infiltration dominates the runoff in these regions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the rainfall threshold and find that the proposed method produces reasonably accurate flash flood warnings in the study catchments. An evaluation of the performance at uncalibrated interior points in the four gauged catchments provides results that are indicative of the expected performance at ungauged locations. We also find that insufficient historical data lengths (13 years with a 5-year flood return period in this study) may introduce uncertainty in the estimation of the flood/rainfall threshold because of the small number of flood events that are used in binary classification. A data sample that contains enough flood events (10 events suggested in the present study) that exceed the threshold value is necessary to obtain acceptable results from binary classification.

Modeling the behavior of an ungauged catchment using alternative datasets: a case study of the Caribou catchment in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labrecque, Geneviève; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Chesnaux, Romain

2017-04-01

The modelling of ungauged catchments is a long standing problem in hydrology and there is still no general consensus regarding the best practices to adopt in a variety of situations. In addition to flood and drought forecasting, there are other interests of modelling the hydrological behaviour of a catchment, whether it is gauged or not. For instance, estimation of groundwater recharge can be performed through an integrated modeling of the catchment. In this study, the WaSim model is used to model the hydrology of the Caribou River catchment located in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Since this catchment includes an important aquifer that is used both for drinking water, industrial and potential agricultural purposes, an accurate recharge assessment is important and is the long-term objective of the project. The WaSim model was chosen due to its very versatile soil sub-model features which allow to simulate subsurface flows and calculate the groundwater recharge as an output variable. Since the Caribou River is ungauged, alternative means of calibrating the free parameters of WaSim had to be implemented. The implementation of a calibration protocol that can get the most out of the few available data is a secondary objective and is the subject of this presentation. First, a « twin » gauged catchment is selected for its physiographic and hydro-climatic similarities with the Caribou River catchment. Streamflow series from this « twin » catchment are then transferred and used jointly with the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm (Tolson and Shoemaker 2007) to obtain a raw calibration of the WaSim model parameters. This initial calibration can be further refined using two available datasets: (1) snow water equivalent data interpolated on a 10 km by 10 km grid and (2) a short and discontinuous time series of streamflow obtained using the land-surface scheme of the environmental multiscale atmospheric model (GEM) at Environment and Climate Change Canada and a unit-hydrograph based routing model. The parameters thus obtained are then validated with a few point measurements of streamflow collected at two locations on the Caribou River during a field campaign realized in 2016-2017. The model performance is assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the results show a satisfactory agreement of the WaSim model with the measured values. References: Tolson, B. A., and C. A. Shoemaker. 2007. "Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm for computationally efficient watershed model calibration." Water Resources Research 43 (1). doi: 10.1029/2005wr004723.

Hidden conformal symmetry of rotating black holes in minimal five-dimensional gauged supergravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Setare, M. R.; Kamali, V.

2010-10-15

In the present paper we show that for a low frequency limit the wave equation of a massless scalar field in the background of nonextremal charged rotating black holes in five-dimensional minimal gauged and ungauged supergravity can be written as the Casimir of an SL(2,R) symmetry. Our result shows that the entropy of the black hole is reproduced by the Cardy formula. Also the absorption cross section is consistent with the finite temperature absorption cross section for a two-dimensional conformal field theory.

Modeling flash floods in southern France for road management purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincendon, Béatrice; Édouard, Simon; Dewaele, Hélène; Ducrocq, Véronique; Lespinas, Franck; Delrieu, Guy; Anquetin, Sandrine

2016-10-01

Flash-floods are among the most devastating hazards in the Mediterranean. A major subset of damage and casualties caused by flooding is related to road submersion. Distributed hydrological nowcasting can be used for road flooding monitoring. This requires rainfall-runoff simulations at a high space and time resolution. Distributed hydrological models, such as the ISBA-TOP coupled system used in this study, are designed to simulate discharges for any cross-section of a river but they are generally calibrated for certain outlets and give deteriorated results for the sub-catchment outlets. The paper first analyses ISBA-TOP discharge simulations in the French Mediterranean region for target points different from the outlets used for calibration. The sensitivity of the model to its governing factors is examined to highlight the validity of results obtained for ungauged river sections compared with those obtained for the main gauged outlets. The use of improved model inputs is found beneficial for sub-catchments simulation. The calibration procedure however provides the parameters' values for the main outlets only and these choices influence the simulations for ungauged catchments or sub-catchments. As a result, a new version of ISBA-TOP system without any parameter to calibrate is used to produce diagnostics relevant for quantifying the risk of road submersion. A first diagnostic is the simulated runoff spatial distribution, it provides a useful information about areas with a high risk of submersion. Then an indicator of the flood severity is given by simulated discharges presented with respect to return periods. The latter has to be used together with information about the vulnerability of road-river cross-sections.

Towards spatially distributed flood forecasts in flash flood prone areas: application to the supervision of a road network in the South of France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Delrieu, Guy

2013-04-01

Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). These forecasts are generally limited to the main streams covered by the flood forecasting services or to specific watersheds with particular assets like check dams which are in most cases well gauged river sections, leaving aside large parts of the territory. A distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting approach will be presented, able to take advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimates that are now available to provide information at ungauged sites. The proposed system aiming at detecting road inundation risks had been initially developed and tested in areas of limited size. Its extension to a whole region (the Gard region in the South of France) will be presented, including over 2000 crossing points between rivers and roads and its validation against a large data set of actually reported road inundations observed during recent flash-flood events. These first validation results appear promising. Such a tool would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and to take the appropriate safety and rescue measures: pre-positioning of rescue means, stopping of the traffic on exposed roads, determination of safe accesses or evacuation routes. Moreover, beyond the specific application to the supervision of a road network, this work provides also results concerning the performances of hydro-meteorological forecasts for ungauged headwaters.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert

2007-01-01

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

New SW Pacific tectonic model: Cyclical intraoceanic magmatic arc construction and near-coeval emplacement along the Australia-Pacific margin in the Cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whattam, Scott A.; Malpas, John; Ali, Jason R.; Smith, Ian E. M.

2008-03-01

Various reconstructions of the SW Pacific for the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic suggest that northeast dipping subduction began in the South Loyalty Basin (SLB) at 55-50 Ma and that subsequent closure of the SLB resulted in the diachronous emplacement of Cretaceous-Paleocene ophiolitic nappes onto the Norfolk Ridge in New Caledonia at 40-34 Ma and in Northland, New Zealand, around 24-21 Ma. A fundamental problem with these models is that they do not account for the fact that NE dipping subduction had already been established offshore Papua New Guinea by at least 65-60 Ma which resulted in the emplacement of the Papuan Ultramafic Belt (PUB) ophiolite at 59-58 Ma. A second issue is that the reconstructions are based largely upon unfounded assumptions as to the age and nature of the basement beneath the Loyalty arc and Three Kings Ridge. Finally, reconstructions of the Northland region are based upon the erroneous assumption that the age of the majority of the igneous component comprising the Northland allochthon is Late Cretaceous-Paleocene, when in fact it is Oligocene. A new model is presented whereby the PUB, New Caledonia, and Northland ophiolites formed and were emplaced in a cyclical fashion above an extensive NE dipping Cenozoic intraoceanic arc system which diachronously propagated (N-S) along the entire eastern margin of the Australian Plate. These "infant arc" ophiolites represent fragments of suprasubduction zone lithosphere (SSZL) generated in the earliest stages of magmatic arc formation that were emplaced shortly after (<20 m.y.) as a result of forearc-Australian Plate collision. Subduction inception was the result of subsidence of older MORB-like lithosphere generated within an extensive "back arc basin" to the east of the Norfolk Ridge during the earliest stages of SLB formation above a southwest dipping Pacific Plate. During emplacement of each ophiolite, a crustal fragment of the older lithosphere was scraped off the NE dipping slab and subsequently back-thrust beneath each ophiolite during its emplacement.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). These peak flows are also needed for effective floodplain management. Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are in general projected to increase during the 21st century (Hayhoe and other, 2007). It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This Fact Sheet, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Scientific Investigations Report (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5080/.

Spatially distributed flood forecasting in flash flood prone areas: Application to road network supervision in Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naulin, J.-P.; Payrastre, O.; Gaume, E.

2013-04-01

SummaryAccurate flood forecasts are critical to an efficient flood event management strategy. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have mainly been used to establish early-warnings in France (meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (flash-flood guidances). These forecasts are typically limited either to the main streams covered by the flood forecasting services or to watersheds with specific assets like check dams, which in most cases are well gauged river sections, thus leaving aside large parts of the territory. This paper presents a distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting approach, which makes use of the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimates that are now available, to provide information at ungauged sites. The proposed system intended to detect road inundation risks had initially been developed and tested in areas of limited size. This paper presents the extension of such a system to an entire region (i.e. the Gard region in Southern France), including over 2000 crossing points between rivers and roads and its validation with respect to a large data set of actual reported road inundations observed during recent flash flood events. These initial validation results appear to be most promising. The eventual proposed tool would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and adopt appropriate safety and rescue measures: i.e. pre-positioning of rescue equipment, interruption of the traffic on the exposed roads and determination of safe access or evacuation routes. Moreover, beyond the specific application to the supervision of a road network, the research undertaken herein also provides results for the performance of hydro-meteorological forecasts on ungauged headwaters.

Recession-based hydrological models for estimating low flows in ungauged catchments in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, H. G.; Holmes, M. G. R.; Young, A. R.; Kansakar, S. R.

The Himalayan region of Nepal and northern India experiences hydrological extremes from monsoonal floods during July to September, when most of the annual precipitation falls, to periods of very low flows during the dry season (December to February). While the monsoon floods cause acute disasters such as loss of human life and property, mudslides and infrastructure damage, the lack of water during the dry season has a chronic impact on the lives of local people. The management of water resources in the region is hampered by relatively sparse hydrometerological networks and consequently, many resource assessments are required in catchments where no measurements exist. A hydrological model for estimating dry season flows in ungauged catchments, based on recession curve behaviour, has been developed to address this problem. Observed flows were fitted to a second order storage model to enable average annual recession behaviour to be examined. Regionalised models were developed, using a calibration set of 26 catchments, to predict three recession curve parameters: the storage constant; the initial recession flow and the start date of the recession. Relationships were identified between: the storage constant and catchment area; the initial recession flow and elevation (acting as a surrogate for rainfall); and the start date of the recession and geographic location. An independent set of 13 catchments was used to evaluate the robustness of the models. The regional models predicted the average volume of water in an annual recession period (1st of October to the 1st of February) with an average error of 8%, while mid-January flows were predicted to within ±50% for 79% of the catchments in the data set.

Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

New possibilities in hydrological monitoring offered by experiences of Citizen Science: CITHYD, a web application for hydrometric measurements in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galimberti, Giacomo; Balbo, Alessandro

2017-04-01

In addition to the data commonly used in hydrological predictions (such as the peaks over a threshold or the annual maximum series or the daily average values of the variables of interest), it is now clear the importance of using all available information, integrating different kinds of data, with appropriate methodologies, including non-systematic measurements and historical values recorded in the past. This is of particular interest in ungauged or poorly gauged basins, often of small size, where there are very few data, but often high hydraulic risk. The wide spread of technologies and sensors useful for data collection (e.g. via smartphones) enable the involvement of citizens in the measurement, transmission and analysis of data. The research concerns the development of a web - application, called CITHYD (Citizen Hydrology) for the collection of hydrometric measurements in rivers from citizens. CITHYD is an application that receives water level data, collected and sent by citizens, in river cross sections instrumented with a staff gauge and an information panel, performs simple reliability checks, stores the data, publishes them and creates statistics freely available for all (under Italian Open Data License 2.0). The application needs an information panel containing a unique QR code for every staff gauge. Through smartphones and TLC network the citizen can transmit the water level seen on a staff gauge existing on a river basin to a geodatabase with web interface. The user, thanks to the QR code, immediately accesses the data entry mask form related to that staff gauge and can insert the water level just read. Data are published almost in real time on a map and the data, inserted by all users, can be read and downloaded, as text files, tables and graphics. The Open Data stored in the DB can be used for scientific research, for calibration and validation of models, to improve the knowledge of the territory and for planning and design. The Citizen Science experience supports the involvement of local communities in living and take care of the rivers of their territory and can promote the creation of a virtuous circle in data collection through social networks, educational and communication events. It can also be used during emergencies, by authorized users, to collect level measurements for risk management and flood protection. The application has been fully developed and is now at the end of the testing phase. Some Italian local administrations are evaluating the use of CITHYD in small catchments in their territories in order to improve community engagement and resilience.

Modelling hydrological processes in mountainous permafrost basin in North-East of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarieva, Olga; Lebedeva, Lyudmila; Nesterova, Natalia

2017-04-01

The studies of hydrological processes in continuous permafrost and the projections of their changes in future have been receiving a lot of attention in the recent years. They are limited by the availability of long-term joint observational data on permafrost dynamic and river runoff which would allow revealing the mechanisms of interaction, tracking the dynamic in historical period and projecting changes in future. The Kolyma Water-Balance Station (KWBS), the Kontaktovy Creek watershed with an area of 22 km2, is situated in the zone of continuous permafrost in the upper reaches of the Kolyma River (Magadan district of Russia). The topography at KWBS is mountainous with the elevations up to 1700 m. Permafrost thickness ranges from 100 to 400 m with temperature -4...-6 °C. Detailed observations of river runoff, active layer dynamics and water balance were carried out at the KWBS from 1948 to 1997. After that permafrost studies were ceased but runoff gauges have been in use and have continuous time series of observations up to 68 years. The hydrological processes at KWBS are representative for the vast NE region of Russia where standard observational network is very scarce. We aim to study and model the mechanisms of interactions between permafrost and runoff, including water flow paths in different landscapes of mountainous permafrost based on detailed historical data of KWBS and the analysis of stable isotopes composition from water samples collected at KWBS in 2016. Mathematical modelling of soil temperature, active layer properties and dynamics, flow formation and interactions between ground and surface water is performed by the means of Hydrograph model (Vinogradov et al. 2011, Semenova et al. 2013). The model algorithms combine process-based and conceptual approaches, which allows for maintaining a balance between the complexity of model design and the use of limited input information. The method for modeling heat dynamics in soil was integrated into Hydrograph model (Semenova et al., 2015; Lebedeva et al., 2015). Small watersheds of KWBS with areas less than 0.5 km2 presenting rocky talus, mountainous tundra and moist larch-forest landscapes were modelled with satisfactory results. The dependence of surface and subsurface flow formation on thawing depth and landscape characteristics is parametrically described. Process analysis and modelling in permafrost regions, including ungauged basins, is suggested, with observable properties of landscapes being used as model parameters, combined with an appropriate level of physically-based conceptualization. The study is partially supported by Russian foundation of basic research, projects 16-35-50151 and 17-05-01138.

Contextualising impacts of logging on tropical rainforest catchment sediment dynamics using the stratigraphic record of in-channel bench deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Will; Walsh, Rory; Bidin, Kawi; Annammala, Kogila

2015-04-01

It is widely recognised that commercial logging and conversion of tropical rainforest to oil palm plantation leads to enhanced fluvial sediment flux to the coastal zone but the dynamics of delivery and mechanisms that act to retain sediment and nutrients within rainforest ecosystems, e.g. riparian zone and floodplain storage, are poorly understood and underexploited as a management tool. While accretion of lateral in-channel bench deposits in response to forest clearance has been demonstrated in temperate landscapes, their development and value as sedimentary archives of catchment response to human disturbance remains largely unexplored in tropical rainforest river systems. Working within the Segama River basin, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this study aimed to test the hypothesis that (1) lateral bench development in tropical rainforest rivers systems is enhanced by upstream catchment disturbance and that (2) the sedimentary record of these deposits can be used to infer changes in sediment provenance and intensification of sediment flux associated with logging activities. Sediment cores were taken from in-channel bench deposits with upstream catchment contributing areas of 721 km2 and 2800 km2 respectively. Accretion rates were determined using fallout 210Pb and 137Cs and the timing of peak accumulation was shown to correspond exactly with the known temporal pattern of logging and associated fluvial sediment response over the period 1980 to present following low pre-logging rates. Major and minor element geochemistry of deposits was used to assess the degree of weathering that deposited sediment had experienced. This was linked to surface (heavily weathered) and subsurface (less weathered) sediment sources relating to initial disturbance by logging and post-logging landsliding responses respectively. A shift in the dominant source of deposited material from surface (i.e. topsoil) to subsurface (i.e. relatively unweathered subsoil close to bedrock) origin was observed to coincide with the increase in accretion rates following logging of steep headwater slopes. Coherence of sedimentary, monitoring and observational evidence demonstrates that in-channel bench deposits offer a previously unexplored sedimentary archive of catchment response to logging in tropical rainforest systems and a tool for evaluating the erosional responses of ungauged basins. In-channel bench development due to catchment disturbance may augment ecosystem services provided by the riparian corridors of larger rivers and process knowledge gained from sedimentary archives can be used to underpin future riparian and catchment forest management strategies.

Comparison of different hydrological similarity measures to estimate flow quantiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rianna, M.; Ridolfi, E.; Napolitano, F.

2017-07-01

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of hydrological similarity measures on the definition of homogeneous regions. To this end, several attribute sets have been analyzed in the context of the Region of Influence (ROI) procedure. Several combinations of geomorphological, climatological, and geographical characteristics are also used to cluster potentially homogeneous regions. To verify the goodness of the resulting pooled sites, homogeneity tests arecarried out. Through a Monte Carlo simulation and a jack-knife procedure, flow quantiles areestimated for the regions effectively resulting as homogeneous. The analysis areperformed in both the so-called gauged and ungauged scenarios to analyze the effect of hydrological measures on flow quantiles estimation.

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

PubMed

Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-02-01

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding key drivers controlling daily stable isotope variations in precipitation of Costa Rica, Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Murillo, Ricardo; Welsh, Kristin; Birkel, Christian; Esquivel-Hernández, Germain; Corrales-Salazar, Jose; Boll, Jan; Brooks, Erin; Roupsard, Olivier; Katchan, Irina; Arce-Mesén, Rafael; Soulsby, Chris; Araguás-Araguás, Luis

2015-04-01

Costa Rica is located on the Central American Isthmus, which receives direct moisture inputs from the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. The relatively narrow, but high relief Central American land bridge is characterized by unique mountainous and lowland microclimates. However, only limited knowledge exists about the impact of relief and regional atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation origin, transport, and isotopic composition in this tropical region. Therefore, the main scope of this study is to identify the key drivers controlling variations in meteoric waters of Costa Rica using stable isotopes based on daily sample collection for the year 2013. The monitoring sites comprise three strategic locations across Costa Rica: Heredia (Central Valley), Turrialba (Caribbean slope), and Caño Seco (South Pacific slope). Sporadic dry season rain is mostly related to isolated enriched events ranging from -5.8‰ d18O up to -0.9‰ d18O. By mid-May, the Intertropical Convergence Zone reaches Costa Rica resulting in a notable depletion in isotope ratios (up to -18.5‰ d18O). HYSPLIT back air mass trajectories indicate the strong influence on the origin and transport of precipitation of two main moisture transport mechanisms, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the Colombian Low Level Jet as well as localized convection events. Multiple linear regression models constructed based on Random Forests of surface meteorological information and atmospheric sounding profiles suggest that Lifted Condensation Level and surface relative humidity are the main factors controlling isotopic variations. These findings diverge from the recognized 'amount effect' in monthly composite samples across the tropics. Understanding of stable isotope dynamics in tropical precipitation can be used to enhance catchment and groundwater modeling efforts in ungauged basins where scarcity of long-term monitoring data drastically limit current and future water resources management.

Evaluation of different methods to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration in ungauged basins in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Fontoura, Jessica; Allasia, Daniel; Herbstrith Froemming, Gabriel; Freitas Ferreira, Pedro; Tassi, Rutineia

2016-04-01

Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance. Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty, simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models. This is especially important in Brazil, where the monitoring of meteorological data is precarious. In this study were compared different methods for estimating evapotranspiration for Rio Grande do Sul, the Southernmost State of Brazil, aiming to suggest alternatives to the recommended method (Penman-Monteith-FAO 56) for estimate daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) when meteorological data is missing or not available. The input dataset included daily and hourly-observed data from conventional and automatic weather stations respectively maintained by the National Weather Institute of Brazil (INMET) from the period of 1 January 2007 to 31 January 2010. Dataset included maximum temperature (Tmax, °C), minimum temperature (Tmin, °C), mean relative humidity (%), wind speed at 2 m height (u2, m s-1), daily solar radiation (Rs, MJ m- 2) and atmospheric pressure (kPa) that were grouped at daily time-step. Was tested the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman-Monteith method (PM) at its full form, against PM assuming missing several variables not normally available in Brazil in order to calculate daily reference ETo. Missing variables were estimated as suggested in FAO56 publication or from climatological means. Furthermore, PM was also compared against the following simplified empirical methods: Hargreaves-Samani, Priestley-Taylor, Mccloud, McGuiness-Bordne, Romanenko, Radiation-Temperature, Tanner-Pelton. The statistical analysis indicates that even if just Tmin and Tmax are available, it is better to use PM estimating missing variables from syntetic data than simplified empirical methods evaluated except for Tanner-Pelton and Priestley-Taylor.

Hydrologic controls on the development of equilibrium soil depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicotina, L.; Tarboton, D. G.; Tesfa, T. K.; Rinaldo, A.

2010-12-01

The object of the present work was the study of the coevolution of runoff production and geomorphological processes and its effects on the formation of equilibrium soil depth by focusing on their mutual feedbacks. The primary goal of this work is to describe spatial patterns of soil depth resulting, under the hypothesis of dynamic equilibrium, from long-term interactions between hydrologic forcings and soil production, erosion and sediment transport processes. These processes dominate the formation of actual soil depth patterns that represent the boundary condition for water redistribution, thus this paper also proposes and attempt to set the premises for decoding their individual role and mutual interactions in shaping the hydrologic response of a catchment. The relevance of the study stems from the massive improvement in hydrologic predictions for ungauged basins that would be achieved by using directly soil depths derived from geomorphic features remotely measured and objectively manipulated. Moreover the setup of a coupled hydrologic-geomorphologic approach represents a first step into the study of such interactions and in particular of the effects of soil moisture in determining soil production functions. Hydrological processes are here described by explicitly accounting for local soil depths and detailed catchment topography from high resolution digital terrain models (DTM). Geomorphological processes are described by means of well-studied geomorphic transport laws. Soil depth is assumed, in the exponential soil production function, as a proxy for all the mechanisms that induce mechanical disruption of bedrock and it’s conversion into soil. This formulation, although empirical, has been widely used in the literature and is currently accepted. The modeling approach is applied to the semi-arid Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Boise, Idaho, USA. Modeled soil depths are compared with field data obtained from an extensive survey of the catchment. Our results show the ability of the model to describe properly the mean soil depth and the broad features of the distribution of measured data. However, local comparisons show significant scatter whose origin is discussed.

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

Coupling Evapotranspiration and Watershed Storage to Assess the Impact of Forest Disturbance on Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brena Naranjo, J.; Stahl, K.; Weiler, M.

2009-05-01

Low flows are important for water-supply planning and design, and maintenance of quantity and quality of water for irrigation, recreation, and fish and wildlife conservation. There have been concerns recently that climate warming and land cover changes due to an unprecedented pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia, Canada, may cause a deterioration of water quantity during low flow periods and at certain times may become a hazard to ecosystem and to water management schemes. A study to characterize the sensitivity of the low flow regimes was performed for several mainly forested catchments located within the Fraser River basin. Here, summer low flows are maintained through the release of water from groundwater and riparian storage, lakes and wetlands, but are reduced by high evapotranspiration rates in the catchments. Since evapotranspiration in British Columbia accounts around 40% of the precipitation, the first part of this work was focused on the assessment of the relationship between the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the actual evapotranspiration (AET) for undisturbed and disturbed landscapes which is expected to influence the hydrological behavior during the low-flow season. Through its influence on evapotranspiration, forest age appears to play an important role in the water balance. The second part of the study implemented a forest age dependent calculation of AET into a parsimonious water balance model, which was applied to simulate the sensitivity of the flow regimes of 15 non regulated watersheds to changes after the beginning of the pine beetle epidemic at a large scale. The model input was derived from disaggregated gridded 30-year climate normals. Since the geologic and topographic properties are first order controls on water storage and release of the examined catchments a framework for regionalization of these properties into ungauged catchments was developed. Furthermore, the interaction between forest disturbance and evapotranspiration may help to predict the magnitude and timing response of low flows -among others- to environmental changes as well as the temporal scales of biogeochemical cycling.

Variation of curve number with storm depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

2012-04-01

The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division. American Society of Civil Engineers, 119(2). pp. 334-345. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the paper is part of the research project no. N N305 396238 founded by PL-Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The support provided by this organization is gratefully acknowledged.

Mapping occurrence of Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis and areas at risk of porcine cysticercosis in Central America and the Caribbean basin.

PubMed

Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Sithole, Fortune; Wang, Ziqi; Willingham, Arve Lee

2017-09-18

This study aimed to map the occurrence of Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis at national level within Central America and the Caribbean basin, and to map the distribution of porcine cysticercosis at first-level administrative subdivision level (department level) and the porcine population at risk. This zoonotic parasite is believed to be widely endemic across most of Latin America. However, there is little information readily available for Central America and the Caribbean basin. Taenia solium has been ranked the most important foodborne parasitic hazard globally and within endemic areas is a common cause of preventable epilepsy. We conducted a structured literature search in PubMed, supplemented and crossed-referenced with relevant academic databases, grey literature, and active searches in identified literature, to identify all records of T. solium presence in Central America and the Caribbean basin between 1986 and April 2017. To retrieve grey literature, government entities, researchers and relevant institutions across the region were contacted in an attempt to cover all countries and territories. Identified records containing data on porcine cysticercosis were geo-referenced to identify department level distribution and compared to modelled distributions of pigs reared under extensive production systems. We identified 51 records of T. solium at the national level, covering 13 countries and an additional three countries were included based on World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) reports, giving a total of 16 countries out of 41 with evidence of the parasite's presence. Screening records for porcine cysticercosis data at the departmental level confirmed porcine cysticercosis presence in 11 departments across six countries (Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela). When comparing these results to areas where pigs were kept in extensive production systems and areas where no information on porcine cysticercosis exists, it is apparent that porcine cysticercosis is likely to be underreported, and that a substantial part of the regional pig population could be at risk of contracting porcine cysticercosis. More detailed information on the distribution of T. solium and accurate burden estimations are urgently needed to grasp the true extent of this zoonotic parasite and the public health and agricultural problems it potentially poses.

Regional consensus opinion for the management of Beta thalassemia major in the Arabian Gulf area

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Thalassemia syndrome has diverse clinical presentations and a global spread that has far exceeded the classical Mediterranean basin where the mutations arose. The mutations that give rise to either alpha or beta thalassemia are numerous, resulting in a wide spectrum of clinical severity ranging from carrier state to life-threatening, inherited hemolytic anemia that requires regular blood transfusion. Beta thalassemia major constitutes a remarkable challenge to health care providers. The complications arising due to the anemia, transfusional iron overload, as well as other therapy-related complications add to the complexity of this condition. To produce this consensus opinion manuscript, a PubMed search was performed to gather evidence-based original articles, review articles, as well as published work reflecting the experience of physicians and scientists in the Arabian Gulf region in an effort to standardize the management protocol. PMID:24044606

Energy map of southwestern Wyoming, Part B: oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biewick, Laura R.H.; Wilson, Anna B.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled Part B of the Energy Map of Southwestern Wyoming for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). Part B consists of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy resource information in support of the WLCI. The WLCI represents the USGS partnership with other Department of the Interior Bureaus, State and local agencies, industry, academia, and private landowners, all of whom collaborate to maintain healthy landscapes, sustain wildlife, and preserve recreational and grazing uses while developing energy resources in southwestern Wyoming. This product is the second and final part of the Energy Map of Southwestern Wyoming series (also see USGS Data Series 683, http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/683/), and encompasses all of Carbon, Lincoln, Sublette, Sweetwater, and Uinta Counties, as well as areas in Fremont County that are in the Great Divide and Green River Basins.

GO2PUB: Querying PubMed with semantic expansion of gene ontology terms

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background With the development of high throughput methods of gene analyses, there is a growing need for mining tools to retrieve relevant articles in PubMed. As PubMed grows, literature searches become more complex and time-consuming. Automated search tools with good precision and recall are necessary. We developed GO2PUB to automatically enrich PubMed queries with gene names, symbols and synonyms annotated by a GO term of interest or one of its descendants. Results GO2PUB enriches PubMed queries based on selected GO terms and keywords. It processes the result and displays the PMID, title, authors, abstract and bibliographic references of the articles. Gene names, symbols and synonyms that have been generated as extra keywords from the GO terms are also highlighted. GO2PUB is based on a semantic expansion of PubMed queries using the semantic inheritance between terms through the GO graph. Two experts manually assessed the relevance of GO2PUB, GoPubMed and PubMed on three queries about lipid metabolism. Experts’ agreement was high (kappa = 0.88). GO2PUB returned 69% of the relevant articles, GoPubMed: 40% and PubMed: 29%. GO2PUB and GoPubMed have 17% of their results in common, corresponding to 24% of the total number of relevant results. 70% of the articles returned by more than one tool were relevant. 36% of the relevant articles were returned only by GO2PUB, 17% only by GoPubMed and 14% only by PubMed. For determining whether these results can be generalized, we generated twenty queries based on random GO terms with a granularity similar to those of the first three queries and compared the proportions of GO2PUB and GoPubMed results. These were respectively of 77% and 40% for the first queries, and of 70% and 38% for the random queries. The two experts also assessed the relevance of seven of the twenty queries (the three related to lipid metabolism and four related to other domains). Expert agreement was high (0.93 and 0.8). GO2PUB and GoPubMed performances were similar to those of the first queries. Conclusions We demonstrated that the use of genes annotated by either GO terms of interest or a descendant of these GO terms yields some relevant articles ignored by other tools. The comparison of GO2PUB, based on semantic expansion, with GoPubMed, based on text mining techniques, showed that both tools are complementary. The analysis of the randomly-generated queries suggests that the results obtained about lipid metabolism can be generalized to other biological processes. GO2PUB is available at http://go2pub.genouest.org. PMID:22958570

Along-strike variations of structural styles in the imbricated Molasse of Salzburg and Upper Austria: a 3-D seismic perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinsch, Ralph; Linzer, Hans-Gert

2010-05-01

At the southern border of the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin syntectonic deposits (Molasse Sediments) are partly incorporated into Alpine contractional deformation. Along the alpine chain style and timing of this deformation varies significantly. In this study we use one of the largest European on-shore 3-D seismic datasets, spanning the Molasse basin of Upper Austria and Salzburg states, to investigate the along-strike structural architecture of the alpine deformation front. In the Austrian Part of the Molasse basin, foredeep sedimentation started in Upper-Eocene times (Wagner, 1996). The sediments cover the European margin, consisting of a crystalline basement covered by variously thick Mesozoic sediments (Nachtmann und Wagner, 1987). In Oligocene to Lower Miocene times, syntectonic foredeep sedimentation took place in a deep marine environment, comprising an axial channel system (Linzer 2001, DeRuig and Hubbard, 2006). Parts of these syntectonic sediments are subsequently affected by the advancing thrust wedge. Within the study area, three distinct fold-and-thrust belt segments of different structural architecture can be defined. 1) The Perwang Imbricates are a promontory mostly situated in Salzburg at the border to Germany. Complexly deformed small thrust sheets evolve above a detachment horizon situated in Late Cretaceous shaly marls in Oligocene times. Syntectonic piggy-back and thrust top basins evolve (Covault et al. 2008), which are partly affected by subsequent Miocene overthrusting. 2) The Regau Segment is the area west of the Perwang lobe. It is dominated by few number of thrust sheets in the Molasse sediments. Instead, over-thrusting by the alpine wedge (pre-deformed Flysch and Helvetic thrust sheets) dominates. 3) The Sierning Imbricates segment is located further to the east, at the border of Upper Austria to Lower Austria. The structural inventory of this thrust belt is comprises varying numbers of thrust sheets along strike (1-5), ramp-flat-ramp geometries, tear faults as well as belt-parallel strike-slip faults. The differences in structural style along strike are interpreted to be caused by pre-deformational conditions (sediment thickness and distribution of potential decollement horizons) and varying tectonic pulses. Covault, J.A., Hubbard, S.M., Graham, S.A., Hinsch, R. and Linzer, H., 2008, Turbidite-reservoir architecture in complex foredeep-margin and wedge-top depocenters, Tertiary Molasse foreland basin system, Austria, Marine and Petroleum Geology, V26/3, 379-396 De Ruig, M. J., and Hubbard, S. M., 2006. Seismic facies and reservoir characteristics of a deep marine channel belt in the Molasse foreland basin. AAPG Bulletin, v. 90, p. 735-752 Linzer, H.-G., 2001, Cyclic channel systems in the Molasse foreland basin of the Eastern Alps- the effects of Late Oligocene foreland thrusting and Early Miocene lateral escape. AAPG Bulletin, 85, 118. Nachtmann, W., Wagner, L., 1987.Mesozoic and Early Tertiary evolution of the Alpine Foreland in Upper Austria and Salzburg, Austria. Tectonophysics, 137, 61-76 Wagner, L. R., 1996. Stratigraphy and hydrocarbons in the Upper Austrian Molasse Foredeep (active margin). In:Wessely, G., Liebl, W. (Eds.), Oil and Gas in Alpidic Thrustbelts and Basins of Central and Eastern Europe. EAGE Special Pub. 5, pp. 217-235.

PUB22 and PUB23 U-BOX E3 ligases directly ubiquitinate RPN6, a 26S proteasome lid subunit, for subsequent degradation in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Cho, Seok Keun; Bae, Hansol; Ryu, Moon Young; Wook Yang, Seong; Kim, Woo TaeK

2015-09-04

Drought stress strongly affects plant growth and development, directly connected with crop yields, accordingly. However, related to the function of U-BOX E3 ligases, the underlying molecular mechanisms of desiccation stress response in plants are still largely unknown. Here we report that PUB22 and PUB23, two U-box E3 ligase homologs, tether ubiquitins to 19S proteasome regulatory particle (RP) subunit RPN6, leading to its degradation. RPN6 was identified as an interacting substrate of PUB22 by yeast two-hybrid screening, and in vitro pull-down assay confirmed that RPN6 interacts not only with PUB22, but also with PUB23. Both PUB22 and PUB23 were able to conjugate ubiquitins on RPN6 in vitro. Furthermore, RPN6 showed a shorter protein half-life in PUB22 overexpressing plants than in wild-type, besides RPN6 was significantly stabilized in pub22pub23 double knockout plants. Taken together, these results solidify a notion that PUB22 and PUB23 can alter the activity of 26S proteasome in response to drought stress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radar Altimetry for Inland Water: Current and Potential Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Barbetta, Silvia; Moramarco, Tommaso; da Silva, Joecila Santos; Calmant, Stephane

2015-12-01

Apart from oceans and ice-sheets, radar altimeters are shown by a plethora of works to be of considerable interest in monitoring inland water bodies such as rivers, lakes, wetlands and floodplains. More than a decade of research on the application in the field of continental hydrology has demonstrated the advantages of providing global coverage, regular temporal sampling and short delivery delays, especially via the acquisition of numerous useful measurements over ungauged areas. With the aim to investigate the benefits that can be achieved by Sentinel-3 mission, two applications are here shown for selected pilot rivers and the results on discharge estimation are analyzed and discussed in terms of performance measures.

Floods in mountain areas—an overview based on examples from Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, R.; Barben, M.; Spreafico, M.

2003-11-01

Mountains cover roughly one quarter of the planet's surface. Known as the Earth's water towers they produce a surplus of water that is transported to neighbouring lowlands via the vast river systems. Water as a vital benefit for life also holds dangers as a destructive element in the form of floods. The present paper, aims to discuss the basic aspects of floods in mountain areas and to illustrate them with examples of case studies, mainly from Switzerland. The hydrological characteristics of mountainous areas are described; the particular processes of flood generation in mountain areas, which should be taken into account. The last section is devoted to methods for estimating floods in ungauged catchments.

The MtDMI2-MtPUB2 Negative Feedback Loop Plays a Role in Nodulation Homeostasis1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Deng, Jie; Zhu, Fugui; Lu, Zheng

2018-01-01

DOES NOT MAKE INFECTION 2 (MtDMI2) is a Leu rich repeat-type receptor kinase required for signal transduction in the Medicago truncatula/Sinorhizobium meliloti symbiosis pathway. However, the mechanisms through which MtDMI2 participates in nodulation homeostasis are poorly understood. In this study, we identified MtPUB2—a novel plant U-box (PUB)–type E3 ligase—and showed that it interacts with MtDMI2. MtDMI2 and MtPUB2 accumulation were shown to be similar in various tissues. Roots of plants in which MtPUB2 was silenced by RNAi (MtPUB2-RNAi plants) exhibited impaired infection threads, fewer nodules, and shorter primary root lengths compared to those of control plants transformed with empty vector. Using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we showed that MtDMI2 phosphorylates MtPUB2 at Ser-316, Ser-421, and Thr-488 residues. When MtPUB2-RNAi plants were transformed with MtPUB2S421D, which mimics the phosphorylated state, MtDMI2 was persistently ubiquitinated and degraded by MtPUB2S421D, resulting in fewer nodules than observed in MtPUB2/MtPUB2-RNAi-complemented plants. However, MtPUB2S421A/MtPUB2-RNAi-complemented plants showed no MtPUB2 ubiquitination activity, and their nodulation phenotype was similar to that of MtPUB2-RNAi plants transformed with empty vector. Further studies demonstrated that these proteins form a negative feedback loop of the prey (MtDMI2)-predator (MtPUB2) type. Our results suggest that the MtDMI2-MtPUB2 negative feedback loop, which displays crosstalk with the long-distance autoregulation of nodulation via MtNIN, plays an important role in nodulation homeostasis. PMID:29440269

PubMed-EX: a web browser extension to enhance PubMed search with text mining features.

PubMed

Tsai, Richard Tzong-Han; Dai, Hong-Jie; Lai, Po-Ting; Huang, Chi-Hsin

2009-11-15

PubMed-EX is a browser extension that marks up PubMed search results with additional text-mining information. PubMed-EX's page mark-up, which includes section categorization and gene/disease and relation mark-up, can help researchers to quickly focus on key terms and provide additional information on them. All text processing is performed server-side, freeing up user resources. PubMed-EX is freely available at http://bws.iis.sinica.edu.tw/PubMed-EX and http://iisr.cse.yzu.edu.tw:8000/PubMed-EX/.

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Biennial Environmental Compliance Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washinton TRU Solutions LLC

This Biennial Environmental Compliance Report (BECR) documents environmental regulatory compliance at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a facility designed for the safe disposal of transuranic (TRU) radioactive waste, for the reporting period of April 1, 2000, to March 31, 2002. As required by the WIPP Land Withdrawal Act (LWA)(Public Law [Pub. L.] 102-579, as amended by Pub. L. 104-201), the BECR documents U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carlsbad Field Office's (CBFO) compliance with applicable environmental protection laws and regulations implemented by agencies of the federal government and the state of New Mexico. In the prior BECR, the CBFO andmore » the management and operating contractor (MOC)committed to discuss resolution of a Letter of Violation that had been issued by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) in August 1999, which was during the previous BECR reporting period. This Letter of Violation alleged noncompliance with hazardous waste aisle spacing, labeling, a nd tank requirements. At the time of publication of the prior BECR, resolution of the Letter of Violation was pending. On July 7, 2000, the NMED issued a letter noting that the aisle spacing and labeling concerns had been adequately addressed and that they were rescinding the violation alleging that the Exhaust Shaft Catch Basin failed to comply with the requirements for a hazardous waste tank. During the current reporting period, WIPP received a Notice of Violation and a compliance order alleging the violation of the New Mexico Hazardous Waste Regulations and the WIPP Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (HWFP).« less

Regression models of discharge and mean velocity associated with near-median streamflow conditions in Texas: utility of the U.S. Geological Survey discharge measurement database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

2014-01-01

A database containing more than 16,300 discharge values and ancillary hydraulic attributes was assembled from summaries of discharge measurement records for 391 USGS streamflow-gauging stations (streamgauges) in Texas. Each discharge is between the 40th- and 60th-percentile daily mean streamflow as determined by period-of-record, streamgauge-specific, flow-duration curves. Each discharge therefore is assumed to represent a discharge measurement made for near-median streamflow conditions, and such conditions are conceptualized as representative of midrange to baseflow conditions in much of the state. The hydraulic attributes of each discharge measurement included concomitant cross-section flow area, water-surface top width, and reported mean velocity. Two regression equations are presented: (1) an expression for discharge and (2) an expression for mean velocity, both as functions of selected hydraulic attributes and watershed characteristics. Specifically, the discharge equation uses cross-sectional area, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area of the watershed, and mean annual precipitation of the location; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.95 and residual standard error of approximately 0.23 base-10 logarithm (cubic meters per second). The mean velocity equation uses discharge, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area, and mean annual precipitation; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.50 and residual standard error of approximately 0.087 third root (meters per second). Residual plots from both equations indicate that reliable estimates of discharge and mean velocity at ungauged stream sites are possible. Further, the relation between contributing drainage area and main-channel slope (a measure of whole-watershed slope) is depicted to aid analyst judgment of equation applicability for ungauged sites. Example applications and computations are provided and discussed within a real-world, discharge-measurement scenario, and an illustration of the development of a preliminary stage-discharge relation using the discharge equation is given.

Spatial and temporal estimation of runoff in a semi-arid microwatershed of Southern India.

PubMed

Rejani, R; Rao, K V; Osman, M; Chary, G R; Pushpanjali; Reddy, K Sammi; Rao, Ch Srinivasa

2015-08-01

In a semi-arid microwatershed of Warangal district in Southern India, daily runoff was estimated spatially using Soil Conservation Service (SCS)-curve number (CN) method coupled with GIS. The groundwater status in this region is over-exploited, and precise estimation of runoff is very essential to plan interventions for this ungauged microwatershed. Rainfall is the most important factor governing runoff, and 75.8% of the daily rainfall and 92.1% of the rainy days which occurred were below 25 mm/day. The declines in rainfall and rainy days observed in recent years were 9.8 and 8.4%, respectively. The surface runoff estimated from crop land for a period of 57 years varied from 0 to 365 mm with a mean annual runoff of 103.7 mm or 14.1% of the mean annual rainfall. The mean annual runoff showed a significant reduction from 108.7 to 82.9 mm in recent years. The decadal variation of annual runoff from crop land over the years varied from 49.2 to 89.0% which showed the caution needed while planning watershed management works in this microwatershed. Among the four land use land cover conditions prevailing in the area, the higher runoff (20% of the mean annual rainfall) was observed from current fallow in clayey soil and lower runoff of 8.7% from crop land in loamy soil due to the increased canopy coverage. The drought years which occurred during recent years (1991-2007) in crop land have increased by 3.5%, normal years have increased by 15.6%, and the above normal years have decreased by 19.1%. This methodology can be adopted for estimating the runoff potential from similar ungauged watersheds with deficient data. It is concluded that in order to ensure long-term and sustainable groundwater utilization in the region, proper estimation of runoff and implementation of suitable water harvesting measures are the need of the hour.

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged sites or estimated extremes at ungauged sites in the considered region, is an efficient way to reduce uncertainties in flood frequency studies.

A Muskingum-based methodology for river discharge estimation and rating curve development under significant lateral inflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbetta, Silvia; Moramarco, Tommaso; Perumal, Muthiah

2017-11-01

Quite often the discharge at a site is estimated using the rating curve developed for that site and its development requires river flow measurements, which are costly, tedious and dangerous during severe floods. To circumvent the conventional rating curve development approach, Perumal et al. in 2007 and 2010 applied the Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage-hydrograph (VPMS) routing method for developing stage-discharge relationships especially at those ungauged river sites where stage measurements and details of section geometry are available, but discharge measurements are not made. The VPMS method enables to estimate rating curves at ungauged river sites with acceptable accuracy. But the application of the method is subjected to the limitation of negligible presence of lateral flow within the routing reach. To overcome this limitation, this study proposes an extension of the VPMS method, henceforth, known herein as the VPMS-Lin method, for enabling the streamflow assessment even when significant lateral inflow occurs along the river reach considered for routing. The lateral inflow is estimated through the continuity equation expressed in the characteristic form as advocated by Barbetta et al. in 2012. The VPMS-Lin, is tested on two rivers characterized by different geometric and hydraulic properties: 1) a 50 km reach of the Tiber River in (central Italy) and 2) a 73 km reach of the Godavari River in the peninsular India. The study demonstrates that both the upstream and downstream discharge hydrographs are well reproduced, with a root mean square error equal on average to about 35 and 1700 m3 s-1 for the Tiber River and the Godavari River case studies, respectively. Moreover, simulation studies carried out on a river stretch of the Tiber River using the one-dimensional hydraulic model MIKE11 and the VPMS-Lin models demonstrate the accuracy of the VMPS-Lin model, which besides enabling the estimation of streamflow, also enables the estimation of reach averaged optimal roughness coefficients for the considered routing events.

Biophenols: Enzymes (β-secretase, Cholinesterases, histone deacetylase and tyrosinase) inhibitors from olive (Olea europaea L.).

PubMed

Omar, Syed Haris; Scott, Christopher J; Hamlin, Adam S; Obied, Hassan K

2018-07-01

The focus of this study was on inhibition of enzymes involved in the pathogenesis Alzheimer's disease (AD) including prime amyloid beta (Aβ) producing enzyme (β-secretase: BACE-1) and disease progression enzymes including acetylcholinesterase (AChE), butyrylcholinesterase (BChE), histone deacetylase (HDAC), and tyrosinase along with the catecholamine L-DOPA, by using olive biophenols. Here we report the strongest inhibition of BACE-1 from rutin (IC 50 : 3.8 nM) followed by verbascoside (IC 50 : 6.3 nM) and olive fruit extract (IC 50 : 18 ng), respectively. Olive biophenol, quercetin exhibited strongest enzyme inhibitory activity against tyrosinase (IC 50 : 10.73 μM), BChE (IC 50 : 19.08 μM), AChE (IC 50 : 55.44 μM), and HDAC (IC 50 : 105.1 μM) enzymes. Furthermore, olive biophenol verbascoside (IC 50 : 188.6 μM), and hydroxytyrosol extreme extract (IC 50 : 66.22 μg) were showed the highest levels of inhibition against the HDAC enzyme. Neuroprotective capacity against levodopa-induced toxicity in neuroblastoma (SH-SY5Y) cells of olive biophenols were assessed, where rutin indicated the highest neuroprotection (74%), followed by caffeic acid (73%), and extract hydroxytyrosol extreme (97%), respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first in vitro report on the enzymes inhibitory activity of olive biophenols. Taken together, our in vitro results data suggest that olive biophenols could be a promising natural inhibitor, which may reduce the enzyme-induced toxicity associated with the oxidative stress involved in the progression of AD. Acetylthiocholine iodide (PubChem CID: 74629); S-Butyrylthiocholine chloride (PubChem CID: 3015121); Caffeic acid (PubChem CID: 689043); Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) (PubChem: 679); L-3,4-Dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-DOPA) (PubChem CID: 6047); 5,5'-Dithiobis (2-nitrobenzoic acid) (DTNB) (PubChem CID: 6254); Epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) (PubChem CID: 65064); Ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA) (PubChem CID: 6049); Galantamine hydrobromide (PubChem CID: 121587); l-Glutamine (PubChem CID: 5961); Hydroxytyrosol (PubChem CID: 82755); Kojic acid (PubChem CID: 3840); Luteolin (PubChem CID: 5280445); Oleuropein (PubChem CID: 5281544); Penicillin-streptomycin (PubChem CID: 131715954); Quercetin (PubChem CID: 5280343); Rutin (PubChem CID: 5280805); Tris-HCl buffer (PubChem: 93573); Trypan blue (PubChem: 9562061). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PubMedReco: A Real-Time Recommender System for PubMed Citations.

PubMed

Samuel, Hamman W; Zaïane, Osmar R

2017-01-01

We present a recommender system, PubMedReco, for real-time suggestions of medical articles from PubMed, a database of over 23 million medical citations. PubMedReco can recommend medical article citations while users are conversing in a synchronous communication environment such as a chat room. Normally, users would have to leave their chat interface to open a new web browser window, and formulate an appropriate search query to retrieve relevant results. PubMedReco automatically generates the search query and shows relevant citations within the same integrated user interface. PubMedReco analyzes relevant keywords associated with the conversation and uses them to search for relevant citations using the PubMed E-utilities programming interface. Our contributions include improvements to the user experience for searching PubMed from within health forums and chat rooms, and a machine learning model for identifying relevant keywords. We demonstrate the feasibility of PubMedReco using BMJ's Doc2Doc forum discussions.

Modelling the snowmelt and the snow water equivalent by creating a simplified energy balance conceptual snow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riboust, Philippe; Thirel, Guillaume; Le Moine, Nicolas; Ribstein, Pierre

2016-04-01

A better knowledge of the accumulated snow on the watersheds will help flood forecasting centres and hydro-power companies to predict the amount of water released during spring snowmelt. Since precipitations gauges are sparse at high elevations and integrative measurements of the snow accumulated on watershed surface are hard to obtain, using snow models is an adequate way to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) on watersheds. In addition to short term prediction, simulating accurately SWE with snow models should have many advantages. Validating the snow module on both SWE and snowmelt should give a more reliable model for climate change studies or regionalization for ungauged watersheds. The aim of this study is to create a new snow module, which has a structure that allows the use of measured snow data for calibration or assimilation. Energy balance modelling seems to be the logical choice for designing a model in which internal variables, such as SWE, could be compared to observations. Physical models are complex, needing high computational resources and many different types of inputs that are not widely measured at meteorological stations. At the opposite, simple conceptual degree-day models offer to simulate snowmelt using only temperature and precipitation as inputs with fast computing. Its major drawback is to be empirical, i.e. not taking into account all of the processes of the energy balance, which makes this kind of model more difficult to use when willing to compare SWE to observed measurements. In order to reach our objectives, we created a snow model structured by a simplified energy balance where each of the processes is empirically parameterized in order to be calculated using only temperature, precipitation and cloud cover variables. This model's structure is similar to the one created by M.T. Walter (2005), where parameterizations from the literature were used to compute all of the processes of the energy balance. The conductive fluxes into the snowpack were modelled by using analytical solutions to the heat equation taking phase change into account. This approach has the advantage to use few forcing variables and to take into account all the processes of the energy balance. Indeed, the simulations should be quick enough to allow, for example, ensemble prediction or simulation of numerous basins, more easily than physical snow models. The snow module formulation has been completed and is in its validation phase using data from the experimental station of Col de Porte, Alpes, France. Data from the US SNOTEL product will be used in order to test the model structure on a larger scale and to test diverse calibration procedures, since the aim is to use it on a basin scale for discharge modelling purposes.

Intercomparison of DEM-based approaches for the identification of flood-prone areas in different geomorphologic and climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samela, Caterina; Nardi, Fernando; Grimaldi, Salvatore; De Paola, Francesco; Sole, Aurelia; Manfreda, Salvatore

2014-05-01

Floods represent the most critical natural hazard for many countries and their frequency appears to be increasing in recent times. The legal constraints of public administrators and the growing interest of private companies (e.g., insurance companies) in identifying the areas exposed to the flood risk, is determining the necessity of developing new tools for the risk classification over large areas. Nowadays, among the numerous hydrologic and hydraulic methods regularly used for practical applications, 2-D hydraulic modeling represents the most accurate approach for deriving detailed inundation maps. Nevertheless, data requirement for these modeling approaches is certainly onerous, limiting their applicability over large areas. On this issue, the terrain morphology may provide an extraordinary amount of information useful to detect areas that are particularly prone to serious flooding. In the present work, we compare the reliability of different DEM-derived quantitative morphologic descriptors in characterizing the relationships between geomorphic attributes and flood exposure. The tests are carried out using techniques of pattern classification, such as linear binary classifiers (Degiorgis et al., 2012), whose ability is evaluated through performance measures. Simple and composed morphologic features are taken into account. The morphological features are: the upslope contributing area (A), the local slope (S), the length of the path that hydrologically connects the location under exam to the nearest element of the drainage network (D), the difference in elevation between the cell under exam and the final point of the same path (H), the curvature (downtriangle2H). In addition to the mentioned features, the study takes into consideration a number of composed indices, such as: the modified topographic index (Manfreda et al., 2011), the downslope index (DI) proposed by Hjerdt et al. (2004), the ratio between the elevation difference H and the distance to the network D, and other indices. Each binary classifier is applied in several catchments in order to verify the reproducibility of the procedures in different geomorphologic, climatic and hydrologic conditions. The study explores the use of these procedures in gauged river basins located in Italy and in an ungauged basin located in Africa. References Degiorgis, M., G. Gnecco, S. Gorni, G. Roth, M. Sanguineti, A.C. Taramasso, 2012. Classifiers for the detection of flood-prone areas using remote sensed elevation data, J. Hydrol., 470-471, 302-315. Hjerdt, K. N., J.J. McDonnell, J. Seibert, A. Rodhe, A new topographic index to quantify downslope controls on local drainage, Water Resour. Res., 40, W05602, 2004. Manfreda, S., M. Di Leo, A. Sole, Detection of Flood Prone Areas using Digital Elevation Models, J. Hydrol. Eng., 16(10), 781-790, 2011.

Prioritizing Restoration in the Hangman Creek Watershed: Predicting Baseflow through Sub-basin Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navickis-Brasch, A. S.; Fiedler, F. R.

2013-12-01

Land use changes since European settlement have significantly impaired the beneficial uses of Coeur d'Alene (CDA) Tribe water bodies in the Hangman Creek watershed. The cumulative impacts have resulted in a 303 (d) designation by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), extirpated the only salmon run on the reservation, and reduced tributary connectivity by isolating many native fish populations. Considering salmon were an essential part of tribal identity and cultural activities, the tribe initiated a 100-year management plan to restore the 155,000-acre portion of the Hangman Creek watershed located on the CDA reservation. The restoration management plan focuses on sustaining subsistence and cultural activities by reestablishing stream connectivity and providing sustainable aquatic habitats as well as restoring watershed processes and improving water quality. Ultimately, the restoration goal is to improve the habitat suitability of Hangman Creek for the eventual return of salmon. To accomplish these goals, it is essential to prioritize and sequence activities that most effectively support restoration. While watershed modeling provides a commonly accepted holistic approach to simulating watershed responses, it appears the effectiveness of models in predicting restoration success, particularly with respect to the effects of restoration on baseflow, have not been well documented. In addition, creating a representative watershed model capable of accounting for a watershed scale spatial and temporal variability generally requires extensive field measurements. This presents a challenge for developing a model of Hangman Creek, since the watershed is mostly ungauged with only limited data available at a few monitoring sites. Our approach to developing a restoration prioritization plan is to first model a subbasin in the watershed with similar characteristics and restoration goals, then utilize the subbasin model to project future baseflow responses in the larger watershed. The Sheep Creek sub-basin of Hangman Creek is one of the first sites to begin restoration and potentially reestablish 2.1 miles of the tributary connectivity to Hangman Creek by realigning the creek back to its historical path. In this work we prioritize restoration efforts based on predicted baseflow responses to restoration using a subbasin model of Sheep Creek. This model will first be calibrated to the extent possible with current alignment groundwater and streamflow data. Then using available ground water and streamflow data collected after the creek is realigned, baseflow response to restoration in the newly aligned Sheep Creek will be predicted and compared to actual conditions. Additional data available for creating the subbasin model includes a newly installed weather station and stream gauge, liDar data, and recently monitored water quality conditions. This poster will present the details of the approach and initial results, and will explicitly consider how the interdisciplinary aspects of the project inform the approach.

PubMedAlertMe - Standalone Windows-based PubMed SDI Software Application

PubMed Central

Ma’ayan, Avi

2008-01-01

PubMedAlertMe is a Windows-based software system for automatically receiving e-mail alert messages about recent publications listed on PubMed. The e-mail messages contain links to newly available abstracts listed on PubMed describing publications that were selectively returned from a specified list of queries. Links are also provided to directly export citations to EndNote, and links are provided to directly forward articles to colleagues. The program is standalone. Thus, it does not require a remote mail server or user registration. PubMedAlertMe is free software, and can be downloaded from: http://amp.pharm.mssm.edu/PubMedAlertMe/PubMedAlertMe_setup.zip PMID:18402930

Getting the Most out of PubChem for Virtual Screening

PubMed Central

Kim, Sunghwan

2016-01-01

Introduction With the emergence of the “big data” era, the biomedical research community has great interest in exploiting publicly available chemical information for drug discovery. PubChem is an example of public databases that provide a large amount of chemical information free of charge. Areas covered This article provides an overview of how PubChem’s data, tools, and services can be used for virtual screening and reviews recent publications that discuss important aspects of exploiting PubChem for drug discovery. Expert opinion PubChem offers comprehensive chemical information useful for drug discovery. It also provides multiple programmatic access routes, which are essential to build automated virtual screening pipelines that exploit PubChem data. In addition, PubChemRDF allows users to download PubChem data and load them into a local computing facility, facilitating data integration between PubChem and other resources. PubChem resources have been used in many studies for developing bioactivity and toxicity prediction models, discovering polypharmacologic (multi-target) ligands, and identifying new macromolecule targets of compounds (for drug-repurposing or off-target side effect prediction). These studies demonstrate the usefulness of PubChem as a key resource for computer-aided drug discovery and related area. PMID:27454129

Literature information in PubChem: associations between PubChem records and scientific articles.

PubMed

Kim, Sunghwan; Thiessen, Paul A; Cheng, Tiejun; Yu, Bo; Shoemaker, Benjamin A; Wang, Jiyao; Bolton, Evan E; Wang, Yanli; Bryant, Stephen H

2016-01-01

PubChem is an open archive consisting of a set of three primary public databases (BioAssay, Compound, and Substance). It contains information on a broad range of chemical entities, including small molecules, lipids, carbohydrates, and (chemically modified) amino acid and nucleic acid sequences (including siRNA and miRNA). Currently (as of Nov. 2015), PubChem contains more than 150 million depositor-provided chemical substance descriptions, 60 million unique chemical structures, and 225 million biological activity test results provided from over 1 million biological assay records. Many PubChem records (substances, compounds, and assays) include depositor-provided cross-references to scientific articles in PubMed. Some PubChem contributors provide bioactivity data extracted from scientific articles. Literature-derived bioactivity data complement high-throughput screening (HTS) data from the concluded NIH Molecular Libraries Program and other HTS projects. Some journals provide PubChem with information on chemicals that appear in their newly published articles, enabling concurrent publication of scientific articles in journals and associated data in public databases. In addition, PubChem links records to PubMed articles indexed with the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) controlled vocabulary thesaurus. Literature information, both provided by depositors and derived from MeSH annotations, can be accessed using PubChem's web interfaces, enabling users to explore information available in literature related to PubChem records beyond typical web search results. Graphical abstractLiterature information for PubChem records is derived from various sources.

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

pub/dailyclim Retrospective CFS Atmospheric and Oceanographic MONTHLY cd pub/cfs/monthly Retrospective CFS Atmospheric DAILY Retrospective CFS Oceanographic DAILY cd pub/daily/glb cd pub/daily/ocndaily CFS

PubMed had a higher sensitivity than Ovid-MEDLINE in the search for systematic reviews.

PubMed

Katchamart, Wanruchada; Faulkner, Amy; Feldman, Brian; Tomlinson, George; Bombardier, Claire

2011-07-01

To compare the performance of Ovid-MEDLINE vs. PubMed for identifying randomized controlled trials of methotrexate (MTX) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We created search strategies for Ovid-MEDLINE and PubMed for a systematic review of MTX in RA. Their performance was evaluated using sensitivity, precision, and number needed to read (NNR). Comparing searches in Ovid-MEDLINE vs. PubMed, PubMed retrieved more citations overall than Ovid-MEDLINE; however, of the 20 citations that met eligibility criteria for the review, Ovid-MEDLINE retrieved 17 and PubMed 18. The sensitivity was 85% for Ovid-MEDLINE vs. 90% for PubMed, whereas the precision and NNR were comparable (precision: 0.881% for Ovid-MEDLINE vs. 0.884% for PubMed and NNR: 114 for Ovid-MEDLINE vs. 113 for PubMed). In systematic reviews of RA, PubMed has higher sensitivity than Ovid-MEDLINE with comparable precision and NNR. This study highlights the importance of well-designed database-specific search strategies. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using data sources beyond PubMed has a modest impact on the results of systematic reviews of therapeutic interventions.

PubMed

Halladay, Christopher W; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Schmid, Ian T; Schmid, Christopher H; Dahabreh, Issa J

2015-09-01

Searching multiple sources when conducting systematic reviews is considered good practice. We aimed to investigate the impact of using sources beyond PubMed in systematic reviews of therapeutic interventions. We randomly selected 50 Cochrane reviews that searched the PubMed (or MEDLINE) and EMBASE databases and included a meta-analysis of ≥10 studies. We checked whether each eligible record in each review (n = 2,700) was retrievable in PubMed and EMBASE. For the first-listed meta-analysis of ≥10 studies in each review, we examined whether excluding studies not found in PubMed affected results. A median of one record per review was indexed in EMBASE but not in PubMed; a median of four records per review was not indexed in PubMed or EMBASE. Meta-analyses included a median of 13.5 studies; a median of zero studies per meta-analysis was indexed in EMBASE but not in PubMed; a median of one study per meta-analysis was not indexed in PubMed or EMBASE. Meta-analysis using only PubMed-indexed vs. all available studies led to a different conclusion in a single case (on the basis of conventional criteria for statistical significance). In meta-regression analyses, effects in PubMed- vs. non-PubMed-indexed studies were statistically significantly different in a single data set. For systematic reviews of the effects of therapeutic interventions, gains from searching sources beyond PubMed, and from searching EMBASE in particular are modest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Charge orbits of extremal black holes in five-dimensional supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerchiai, Bianca L.; Ferrara, Sergio; Marrani, Alessio; Zumino, Bruno

2010-10-01

We derive the U-duality charge orbits, as well as the related moduli spaces, of “large” and “small” extremal black holes in nonmaximal ungauged Maxwell-Einstein supergravities with symmetric scalar manifolds in d=5 space-time dimensions. The stabilizer groups of the various classes of orbits are obtained by determining and solving suitable U-invariant sets of constraints, both in “bare” and “dressed” charge bases, with various methods. After a general treatment of attractors in real special geometry (also considering nonsymmetric cases), the N=2 “magic” theories, as well as the N=2 Jordan symmetric sequence, are analyzed in detail. Finally, the half-maximal (N=4) matter-coupled supergravity is also studied in this context.

Exact Solution of a Strongly Coupled Gauge Theory in 0 +1 Dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, Chethan; Kumar, K. V. Pavan

2018-05-01

Gauged tensor models are a class of strongly coupled quantum mechanical theories. We present the exact analytic solution of a specific example of such a theory: namely, the smallest colored tensor model due to Gurau and Witten that exhibits nonlinearities. We find explicit analytic expressions for the eigenvalues and eigenstates, and the former agree precisely with previous numerical results on (a subset of) eigenvalues of the ungauged theory. The physics of the spectrum, despite the smallness of N , exhibits rudimentary signatures of chaos. This Letter is a summary of our main results: the technical details will appear in companion paper [C. Krishnan and K. V. Pavan Kumar, Complete solution of a gauged tensor model, arXiv:1804.10103].

7 CFR 622.3 - Relationship to the Pub. L. 78-534 Program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Relationship to the Pub. L. 78-534 Program. 622.3... to the Pub. L. 78-534 Program. (a) General. The purposes and objectives of the programs under Pub. L. 83-566 and Pub. L. 78-534 are the same in most cases. Planning criteria, economic justification...

Analysis of PubMed User Sessions Using a Full-Day PubMed Query Log: A Comparison of Experienced and Nonexperienced PubMed Users

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background PubMed is the largest biomedical bibliographic information source on the Internet. PubMed has been considered one of the most important and reliable sources of up-to-date health care evidence. Previous studies examined the effects of domain expertise/knowledge on search performance using PubMed. However, very little is known about PubMed users’ knowledge of information retrieval (IR) functions and their usage in query formulation. Objective The purpose of this study was to shed light on how experienced/nonexperienced PubMed users perform their search queries by analyzing a full-day query log. Our hypotheses were that (1) experienced PubMed users who use system functions quickly retrieve relevant documents and (2) nonexperienced PubMed users who do not use them have longer search sessions than experienced users. Methods To test these hypotheses, we analyzed PubMed query log data containing nearly 3 million queries. User sessions were divided into two categories: experienced and nonexperienced. We compared experienced and nonexperienced users per number of sessions, and experienced and nonexperienced user sessions per session length, with a focus on how fast they completed their sessions. Results To test our hypotheses, we measured how successful information retrieval was (at retrieving relevant documents), represented as the decrease rates of experienced and nonexperienced users from a session length of 1 to 2, 3, 4, and 5. The decrease rate (from a session length of 1 to 2) of the experienced users was significantly larger than that of the nonexperienced groups. Conclusions Experienced PubMed users retrieve relevant documents more quickly than nonexperienced PubMed users in terms of session length. PMID:26139516

Quantifying the Regional Extent and Magnitude of Interbasin Groundwater Flow and Its Role in Climatic Perturbations in Northern New Mexico, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart-Maddox, Noah

Interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) occurs when water that is recharged in one watershed or basin discharges into an adjacent watershed or basin. This contributes additional water and solute mass to the receiving watershed complicating water and solute mass-balance estimates. Additionally, IGF can alter the response time of a watershed in two primary ways, where response time is defined as the amount of time it takes for a watershed to respond to some perturbation that causes a change in recharge. First, changes that occur outside the watershed in the contributing watershed can impact process behavior in the receiving watershed. Secondly, the response time of these external perturbations will be longer than the response time of perturbations that occur solely inside the watershed since the flowpath lengths of IGF are much greater than the flowpaths originating solely inside the watershed, thus an integrated response time arises between the watersheds. Changes in land-use and climate are causing changes in groundwater systems throughout the world, especially with respect to groundwater recharge. Understanding the timing and magnitude of these changes is critically important for future management strategies, sustainability, and adaptation. While progress has been made in identifying IGF in the field, it remains extremely difficult to determine the regional (spatial) extent of IGF. Typically, extensive sampling over a large spatial and temporal scale is required to conclusively determine the extent and magnitude of IGF. Unfortunately, high spatial-resolution datasets are not always available in ungauged or mountainous basins. In this thesis, I examine new methods to determine the extent of IGF, and develop a conceptual model that describes the effect of IGF on watershed response times. First, I present a new methodology using mixing models constrained by inverse geochemical modeling to determine the extent and magnitude of IGF in three watersheds (Canjilon, El Rito, and Vallecitos) draining the Tusas Mountains of northern New Mexico, USA (sites where IGF has been shown to occur). Secondly, I show the construction of a 3D geological model of the Tusas Mountains, which will be used in future work to look at the effects of IGF on watershed response times. Finally, response times are approximated under different IGF conditions to provide a conceptual framework describing the effects of IGF on response time. These results show that IGF can have a dramatic effect on increasing the response time of watersheds, which has important implications moving into the future. I find that the IGF connection from Canjilon to El Rito is large, as supported by previous research. However, the IGF connection from El Rito to Vallecitos is weak to non-existent. The maximum possible IGF contribution from El Rito to Vallecitos occurs during snowmelt when IGF contributes as much as 20% of the solute mass to Vallecitos. During summer and fall months, the IGF contribution to solute mass decreases to less than 5%. Due to the longer flowpath of this IGF connection, the response times along the IGF flowpaths in El Rito and Vallecitos are approximately double the response times of local flowpaths. This means that the amount of IGF that is occurring has a very strong influence on the integrated response time of a given watershed. I end my thesis by presenting a geological model, which will be used in the future to develop a hydrogeological model to more fully answer this question.

PubFocus: semantic MEDLINE/PubMed citations analytics through integration of controlled biomedical dictionaries and ranking algorithm

PubMed Central

Plikus, Maksim V; Zhang, Zina; Chuong, Cheng-Ming

2006-01-01

Background Understanding research activity within any given biomedical field is important. Search outputs generated by MEDLINE/PubMed are not well classified and require lengthy manual citation analysis. Automation of citation analytics can be very useful and timesaving for both novices and experts. Results PubFocus web server automates analysis of MEDLINE/PubMed search queries by enriching them with two widely used human factor-based bibliometric indicators of publication quality: journal impact factor and volume of forward references. In addition to providing basic volumetric statistics, PubFocus also prioritizes citations and evaluates authors' impact on the field of search. PubFocus also analyses presence and occurrence of biomedical key terms within citations by utilizing controlled vocabularies. Conclusion We have developed citations' prioritisation algorithm based on journal impact factor, forward referencing volume, referencing dynamics, and author's contribution level. It can be applied either to the primary set of PubMed search results or to the subsets of these results identified through key terms from controlled biomedical vocabularies and ontologies. NCI (National Cancer Institute) thesaurus and MGD (Mouse Genome Database) mammalian gene orthology have been implemented for key terms analytics. PubFocus provides a scalable platform for the integration of multiple available ontology databases. PubFocus analytics can be adapted for input sources of biomedical citations other than PubMed. PMID:17014720

38 CFR 3.953 - Pub. L. 85-56 and Pub. L. 85-857.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... privileges or benefits as a retired emergency officer of World War I, on December 31, 1958, under the laws in... 200 of the World War Veterans' Act, 1924, as amended, are protected by section 2316(b), Pub. L. 85-56... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Pub. L. 85-56 and Pub. L...

OvidSP Medline-to-PubMed search filter translation: a methodology for extending search filter range to include PubMed's unique content.

PubMed

Damarell, Raechel A; Tieman, Jennifer J; Sladek, Ruth M

2013-07-02

PubMed translations of OvidSP Medline search filters offer searchers improved ease of access. They may also facilitate access to PubMed's unique content, including citations for the most recently published biomedical evidence. Retrieving this content requires a search strategy comprising natural language terms ('textwords'), rather than Medical Subject Headings (MeSH). We describe a reproducible methodology that uses a validated PubMed search filter translation to create a textword-only strategy to extend retrieval to PubMed's unique heart failure literature. We translated an OvidSP Medline heart failure search filter for PubMed and established version equivalence in terms of indexed literature retrieval. The PubMed version was then run within PubMed to identify citations retrieved by the filter's MeSH terms (Heart failure, Left ventricular dysfunction, and Cardiomyopathy). It was then rerun with the same MeSH terms restricted to searching on title and abstract fields (i.e. as 'textwords'). Citations retrieved by the MeSH search but not the textword search were isolated. Frequency analysis of their titles/abstracts identified natural language alternatives for those MeSH terms that performed less effectively as textwords. These terms were tested in combination to determine the best performing search string for reclaiming this 'lost set'. This string, restricted to searching on PubMed's unique content, was then combined with the validated PubMed translation to extend the filter's performance in this database. The PubMed heart failure filter retrieved 6829 citations. Of these, 834 (12%) failed to be retrieved when MeSH terms were converted to textwords. Frequency analysis of the 834 citations identified five high frequency natural language alternatives that could improve retrieval of this set (cardiac failure, cardiac resynchronization, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, and LV dysfunction). Together these terms reclaimed 157/834 (18.8%) of lost citations. MeSH terms facilitate precise searching in PubMed's indexed subset. They may, however, work less effectively as search terms prior to subject indexing. A validated PubMed search filter can be used to develop a supplementary textword-only search strategy to extend retrieval to PubMed's unique content. A PubMed heart failure search filter is available on the CareSearch website (http://www.caresearch.com.au) providing access to both indexed and non-indexed heart failure evidence.

Clinical characteristics of Helicobacter pylori-negative drug-negative peptic ulcer bleeding

PubMed Central

Chung, Woo Chul; Jeon, Eun Jung; Kim, Dae Bum; Sung, Hea Jung; Kim, Yeon-Ji; Lim, Eun Sun; Kim, Min-ah; Oh, Jung Hwan

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of idiopathic Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-negative and drug-negative] peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). METHODS: A consecutive series of patients who experienced PUB between 2006 and 2012 was retrospectively analyzed. A total of 232 patients were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into four groups according to the etiologies of PUB: idiopathic, H. pylori-associated, drug-induced and combined (H. pylori-associated and drug-induced) types. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes between the groups. When the silver stain or rapid urease tests were H. pylori-negative, we obtained an additional biopsy specimen by endoscopic re-examination and performed an H. pylori antibody test 6-8 wk after the initial endoscopic examination. For a diagnosis of idiopathic PUB, a negative result of an H. pylori antibody test was confirmed. In all cases, re-bleeding was confirmed by endoscopic examination. For the risk assessment, the Blatchford and the Rockall scores were calculated for all patients. RESULTS: For PUB, the frequency of H. pylori infection was 59.5% (138/232), whereas the frequency of idiopathic cases was 8.6% (20/232). When idiopathic PUB was compared to H. pylori-associated PUB, the idiopathic PUB group showed a higher rate of re-bleeding after initial hemostasis during the hospital stay (30% vs 7.4%, P = 0.02). When idiopathic PUB was compared to drug-induced PUB, the patients in the idiopathic PUB group showed a higher rate of re-bleeding after initial hemostasis upon admission (30% vs 2.7%, P < 0.01). When drug-induced PUB was compared to H. pylori-associated PUB, the patients in the drug-induced PUB were older (68.49 ± 14.76 years vs 47.83 ± 15.15 years, P < 0.01) and showed a higher proportion of gastric ulcer (77% vs 49%, P < 0.01). However, the Blatchford and the Rockall scores were not significantly different between the two groups. Among the patients who experienced drug-induced PUB, no significant differences were found with respect to clinical characteristics, irrespective of H. pylori infection. CONCLUSION: Idiopathic PUB has unique clinical characteristics such as re-bleeding after initial hemostasis upon admission. Therefore, these patients need to undergo close surveillance upon admission. PMID:26229405

Clinical characteristics of Helicobacter pylori-negative drug-negative peptic ulcer bleeding.

PubMed

Chung, Woo Chul; Jeon, Eun Jung; Kim, Dae Bum; Sung, Hea Jung; Kim, Yeon-Ji; Lim, Eun Sun; Kim, Min-Ah; Oh, Jung Hwan

2015-07-28

To investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of idiopathic Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-negative and drug-negative] peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). A consecutive series of patients who experienced PUB between 2006 and 2012 was retrospectively analyzed. A total of 232 patients were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into four groups according to the etiologies of PUB: idiopathic, H. pylori-associated, drug-induced and combined (H. pylori-associated and drug-induced) types. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes between the groups. When the silver stain or rapid urease tests were H. pylori-negative, we obtained an additional biopsy specimen by endoscopic re-examination and performed an H. pylori antibody test 6-8 wk after the initial endoscopic examination. For a diagnosis of idiopathic PUB, a negative result of an H. pylori antibody test was confirmed. In all cases, re-bleeding was confirmed by endoscopic examination. For the risk assessment, the Blatchford and the Rockall scores were calculated for all patients. For PUB, the frequency of H. pylori infection was 59.5% (138/232), whereas the frequency of idiopathic cases was 8.6% (20/232). When idiopathic PUB was compared to H. pylori-associated PUB, the idiopathic PUB group showed a higher rate of re-bleeding after initial hemostasis during the hospital stay (30% vs 7.4%, P = 0.02). When idiopathic PUB was compared to drug-induced PUB, the patients in the idiopathic PUB group showed a higher rate of re-bleeding after initial hemostasis upon admission (30% vs 2.7%, P < 0.01). When drug-induced PUB was compared to H. pylori-associated PUB, the patients in the drug-induced PUB were older (68.49 ± 14.76 years vs 47.83 ± 15.15 years, P < 0.01) and showed a higher proportion of gastric ulcer (77% vs 49%, P < 0.01). However, the Blatchford and the Rockall scores were not significantly different between the two groups. Among the patients who experienced drug-induced PUB, no significant differences were found with respect to clinical characteristics, irrespective of H. pylori infection. Idiopathic PUB has unique clinical characteristics such as re-bleeding after initial hemostasis upon admission. Therefore, these patients need to undergo close surveillance upon admission.

PubMed Informer: Monitoring MEDLINE/PubMed through E-mail Alerts, SMS, PDA downloads and RSS feeds

PubMed Central

Muin, Michael; Fontelo, Paul; Ackerman, Michael

2005-01-01

Summary PubMed Informer is a Web-based monitoring tool for topics of interest from MEDLINE/PubMed primarily designed for healthcare professionals. Five tracking methods are available: Web access, e-mail, Short Message Service (SMS), PDA downloads and RSS feeds. PubMed Informer delivers focused search updates and specific information to users with varying information-seeking practices. PMID:16779344

Pub-Med-dot-com, here we come!

PubMed

Pulst, Stefan M

2016-08-01

As of April 8, 2016, articles in Neurology® Genetics can be searched using PubMed. Launched in 1996, PubMed is a search engine that accesses citations and abstracts of more than 26 million articles. Its primary sources include the MEDLINE database, which was started in the 1960s, and biomedical and life sciences journal articles that date back to 1946. In addition, PubMed accesses other sources, for example, citations to those life sciences journals that submit full-text articles to PubMed Central (PMC). PubMed Central was launched in 2000 as a free archive of biomedical and life science journals.

Retrieving clinical evidence: a comparison of PubMed and Google Scholar for quick clinical searches.

PubMed

Shariff, Salimah Z; Bejaimal, Shayna Ad; Sontrop, Jessica M; Iansavichus, Arthur V; Haynes, R Brian; Weir, Matthew A; Garg, Amit X

2013-08-15

Physicians frequently search PubMed for information to guide patient care. More recently, Google Scholar has gained popularity as another freely accessible bibliographic database. To compare the performance of searches in PubMed and Google Scholar. We surveyed nephrologists (kidney specialists) and provided each with a unique clinical question derived from 100 renal therapy systematic reviews. Each physician provided the search terms they would type into a bibliographic database to locate evidence to answer the clinical question. We executed each of these searches in PubMed and Google Scholar and compared results for the first 40 records retrieved (equivalent to 2 default search pages in PubMed). We evaluated the recall (proportion of relevant articles found) and precision (ratio of relevant to nonrelevant articles) of the searches performed in PubMed and Google Scholar. Primary studies included in the systematic reviews served as the reference standard for relevant articles. We further documented whether relevant articles were available as free full-texts. Compared with PubMed, the average search in Google Scholar retrieved twice as many relevant articles (PubMed: 11%; Google Scholar: 22%; P<.001). Precision was similar in both databases (PubMed: 6%; Google Scholar: 8%; P=.07). Google Scholar provided significantly greater access to free full-text publications (PubMed: 5%; Google Scholar: 14%; P<.001). For quick clinical searches, Google Scholar returns twice as many relevant articles as PubMed and provides greater access to free full-text articles.

A search engine to access PubMed monolingual subsets: proof of concept and evaluation in French.

PubMed

Griffon, Nicolas; Schuers, Matthieu; Soualmia, Lina Fatima; Grosjean, Julien; Kerdelhué, Gaétan; Kergourlay, Ivan; Dahamna, Badisse; Darmoni, Stéfan Jacques

2014-12-01

PubMed contains numerous articles in languages other than English. However, existing solutions to access these articles in the language in which they were written remain unconvincing. The aim of this study was to propose a practical search engine, called Multilingual PubMed, which will permit access to a PubMed subset in 1 language and to evaluate the precision and coverage for the French version (Multilingual PubMed-French). To create this tool, translations of MeSH were enriched (eg, adding synonyms and translations in French) and integrated into a terminology portal. PubMed subsets in several European languages were also added to our database using a dedicated parser. The response time for the generic semantic search engine was evaluated for simple queries. BabelMeSH, Multilingual PubMed-French, and 3 different PubMed strategies were compared by searching for literature in French. Precision and coverage were measured for 20 randomly selected queries. The results were evaluated as relevant to title and abstract, the evaluator being blind to search strategy. More than 650,000 PubMed citations in French were integrated into the Multilingual PubMed-French information system. The response times were all below the threshold defined for usability (2 seconds). Two search strategies (Multilingual PubMed-French and 1 PubMed strategy) showed high precision (0.93 and 0.97, respectively), but coverage was 4 times higher for Multilingual PubMed-French. It is now possible to freely access biomedical literature using a practical search tool in French. This tool will be of particular interest for health professionals and other end users who do not read or query sufficiently in English. The information system is theoretically well suited to expand the approach to other European languages, such as German, Spanish, Norwegian, and Portuguese.

A Search Engine to Access PubMed Monolingual Subsets: Proof of Concept and Evaluation in French

PubMed Central

Schuers, Matthieu; Soualmia, Lina Fatima; Grosjean, Julien; Kerdelhué, Gaétan; Kergourlay, Ivan; Dahamna, Badisse; Darmoni, Stéfan Jacques

2014-01-01

Background PubMed contains numerous articles in languages other than English. However, existing solutions to access these articles in the language in which they were written remain unconvincing. Objective The aim of this study was to propose a practical search engine, called Multilingual PubMed, which will permit access to a PubMed subset in 1 language and to evaluate the precision and coverage for the French version (Multilingual PubMed-French). Methods To create this tool, translations of MeSH were enriched (eg, adding synonyms and translations in French) and integrated into a terminology portal. PubMed subsets in several European languages were also added to our database using a dedicated parser. The response time for the generic semantic search engine was evaluated for simple queries. BabelMeSH, Multilingual PubMed-French, and 3 different PubMed strategies were compared by searching for literature in French. Precision and coverage were measured for 20 randomly selected queries. The results were evaluated as relevant to title and abstract, the evaluator being blind to search strategy. Results More than 650,000 PubMed citations in French were integrated into the Multilingual PubMed-French information system. The response times were all below the threshold defined for usability (2 seconds). Two search strategies (Multilingual PubMed-French and 1 PubMed strategy) showed high precision (0.93 and 0.97, respectively), but coverage was 4 times higher for Multilingual PubMed-French. Conclusions It is now possible to freely access biomedical literature using a practical search tool in French. This tool will be of particular interest for health professionals and other end users who do not read or query sufficiently in English. The information system is theoretically well suited to expand the approach to other European languages, such as German, Spanish, Norwegian, and Portuguese. PMID:25448528

PubSearch and PubFetch: a simple management system for semiautomated retrieval and annotation of biological information from the literature.

PubMed

Yoo, Danny; Xu, Iris; Berardini, Tanya Z; Rhee, Seung Yon; Narayanasamy, Vijay; Twigger, Simon

2006-03-01

For most systems in biology, a large body of literature exists that describes the complexity of the system based on experimental results. Manual review of this literature to extract targeted information into biological databases is difficult and time consuming. To address this problem, we developed PubSearch and PubFetch, which store literature, keyword, and gene information in a relational database, index the literature with keywords and gene names, and provide a Web user interface for annotating the genes from experimental data found in the associated literature. A set of protocols is provided in this unit for installing, populating, running, and using PubSearch and PubFetch. In addition, we provide support protocols for performing controlled vocabulary annotations. Intended users of PubSearch and PubFetch are database curators and biology researchers interested in tracking the literature and capturing information about genes of interest in a more effective way than with conventional spreadsheets and lab notebooks.

The inclusion of an online journal in PubMed central - a difficult path.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2016-01-01

The indexing of a journal in a prominent database (such as PubMed) is an important imprimatur. Journals accepted for inclusion in PubMed Central (PMC) are automatically indexed in PubMed but must provide the entire contents of their publications as XML-tagged (Extensible Markup Language) data files compliant with PubMed's document type definition (DTD). This paper describes the various attempts that the journal Images in Paediatric Cardiology made in its efforts to convert the journal contents (including all of the extant backlog) to PMC-compliant XML for archiving and indexing in PubMed after the journal was accepted for inclusion by the database.

Final Technical Report for Quantum Embedding for Correlated Electronic Structure in Large Systems and the Condensed Phase

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Garnet Kin-Lic

2017-04-30

This is the final technical report. We briefly describe some selected results below. Developments in density matrix embedding. DMET is a quantum embedding theory that we introduced at the beginning of the last funding period, around 2012-2013. Since the first DMET papers, which demonstrated proof-of- principle calculations on the Hubbard model and hydrogen rings, we have carried out a number of different developments, including: Extending the DMET technology to compute broken symmetry phases, including magnetic phases and super- conductivity (Pub. 13); Calibrating the accuracy of DMET and its cluster size convergence against other methods, and formulation of a dynamical clustermore » analog (Pubs. 4, 10) (see Fig. 1); Implementing DMET for ab-initio molecular calculations, and exploring different self-consistency criteria (Pubs. 9, 14); Using embedding to defi ne quantum classical interfaces Pub. 2; Formulating DMET for spectral functions (Pub. 7) (see Fig. 1); Extending DMET to coupled fermion-boson problems (Pub. 12). Together with these embedding developments, we have also implemented a wide variety of impurity solvers within our DMET framework, including DMRG (Pub. 3), AFQMC (Pub. 10), and coupled cluster theory (CC) (Pub. 9).« less

OvidSP Medline-to-PubMed search filter translation: a methodology for extending search filter range to include PubMed's unique content

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background PubMed translations of OvidSP Medline search filters offer searchers improved ease of access. They may also facilitate access to PubMed’s unique content, including citations for the most recently published biomedical evidence. Retrieving this content requires a search strategy comprising natural language terms (‘textwords’), rather than Medical Subject Headings (MeSH). We describe a reproducible methodology that uses a validated PubMed search filter translation to create a textword-only strategy to extend retrieval to PubMed’s unique heart failure literature. Methods We translated an OvidSP Medline heart failure search filter for PubMed and established version equivalence in terms of indexed literature retrieval. The PubMed version was then run within PubMed to identify citations retrieved by the filter’s MeSH terms (Heart failure, Left ventricular dysfunction, and Cardiomyopathy). It was then rerun with the same MeSH terms restricted to searching on title and abstract fields (i.e. as ‘textwords’). Citations retrieved by the MeSH search but not the textword search were isolated. Frequency analysis of their titles/abstracts identified natural language alternatives for those MeSH terms that performed less effectively as textwords. These terms were tested in combination to determine the best performing search string for reclaiming this ‘lost set’. This string, restricted to searching on PubMed’s unique content, was then combined with the validated PubMed translation to extend the filter’s performance in this database. Results The PubMed heart failure filter retrieved 6829 citations. Of these, 834 (12%) failed to be retrieved when MeSH terms were converted to textwords. Frequency analysis of the 834 citations identified five high frequency natural language alternatives that could improve retrieval of this set (cardiac failure, cardiac resynchronization, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, and LV dysfunction). Together these terms reclaimed 157/834 (18.8%) of lost citations. Conclusions MeSH terms facilitate precise searching in PubMed’s indexed subset. They may, however, work less effectively as search terms prior to subject indexing. A validated PubMed search filter can be used to develop a supplementary textword-only search strategy to extend retrieval to PubMed’s unique content. A PubMed heart failure search filter is available on the CareSearch website (http://www.caresearch.com.au) providing access to both indexed and non-indexed heart failure evidence. PMID:23819658

Parameter Set Cloning Based on Catchment Similarity for Large-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

2016-12-01

Parameter calibration is a crucial step to ensure the accuracy of hydrological models. However, streamflow gauges are not available everywhere for calibrating a large-scale hydrologic model globally. Thus, assigning parameters appropriately for regions where the calibration cannot be performed directly has been a challenge for large-scale hydrologic modeling. Here we propose a method to estimate the model parameters in ungauged regions based on the values obtained through calibration in areas where gauge observations are available. This parameter set cloning is performed according to a catchment similarity index, a weighted sum index based on four catchment characteristic attributes. These attributes are IPCC Climate Zone, Soil Texture, Land Cover, and Topographic Index. The catchments with calibrated parameter values are donors, while the uncalibrated catchments are candidates. Catchment characteristic analyses are first conducted for both donors and candidates. For each attribute, we compute a characteristic distance between donors and candidates. Next, for each candidate, weights are assigned to the four attributes such that higher weights are given to properties that are more directly linked to the hydrologic dominant processes. This will ensure that the parameter set cloning emphasizes the dominant hydrologic process in the region where the candidate is located. The catchment similarity index for each donor - candidate couple is then created as the sum of the weighted distance of the four properties. Finally, parameters are assigned to each candidate from the donor that is "most similar" (i.e. with the shortest weighted distance sum). For validation, we applied the proposed method to catchments where gauge observations are available, and compared simulated streamflows using the parameters cloned by other catchments to the results obtained by calibrating the hydrologic model directly using gauge data. The comparison shows good agreement between the two models for different river basins as we show here. This method has been applied globally to the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model using gauge observations obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC). As next step, more catchment properties can be taken into account to further improve the representation of catchment similarity.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

2016-04-01

River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

Impacts of ENSO on global hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Kummu, M.

2012-04-01

The economic consequences of flooding are huge, as exemplified by recent major floods in Thailand, Pakistan, and Australia. Moreover, research shows that economic losses due to flooding have increased dramatically in recent decades. Whilst much research is being carried out to assess how this may be related to socioeconomic development (increased exposure to floods) or climate change (increased hazard), the role of interannual climate variability is poorly understood at the global scale. We provide the first global assessment of the sensitivity of extreme global river discharge to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Past studies have either: (a) assessed this at the local scale; or (b) assessed only global correlations between ENSO and mean river discharge. Firstly, we used a daily observed discharge dataset for 622 gauging stations (from the GRDC database), and assessed and mapped correlations and sensitivities between these time-series and several indices of ENSO. We found that, on average, for the stations studied ENSO has a greater impact on annual high-flow events than on mean annual discharge, especially in the extra-tropics. However, the geographical coverage of the dataset is poor in some regions, and is highly skewed towards certain areas (e.g. North America, Europe, and eastern Australia). This renders a truly global assessment of ENSO impacts impossible based on these observed time-series. Hence, we are also using a modelling approach to estimate correlations and sensitivities in all basins, gauged and ungauged. For this, we are using a gridded time-series of modelled daily discharge from the EU-WATCH project, and analysing relationships between these time-series (per grid-cell) and indices of ENSO. This allows for the first truly global assessment of the impact of ENSO variability on river discharge; these analyses are ongoing. Of course, this approach entails its own problems; the use of global hydrological models to derive daily discharge time-series introduces its own uncertainties. Hence, the results derived from the modelling exercise will be validated against the results derived from the observed data. The quantification of ENSO impacts provides relevant information for water management, allowing the identification of problem areas and providing a basis for risk assessments.

US GeoData Available Through the Internet

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) offers certain US GeoData data sets through the Internet. They can be retrieved using the World Wide Web or anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP). The data bases and their directory paths are as follows: * 1:24,000-scale digital line graph data in SDTS format (/pub/data/DLG/24K) * 1:2,000,000-scale digital line graph data in SDTS format (/pub/data/DLG/2M) * 1:100,000-scale digital line graph data (/pub/data/DLG/100K) * 1:100,000-scale land use and land cover data (/pub/data/LULC/100K) * 1:250,000-scale land use and land cover data (/pub/data/LULC/250K) * 1:24,000-scale digital elevation data (/pub/data/DEM/7.5min) * 1-degree digital elevation model data (/pub/data/DEM/250)

Retrieving Clinical Evidence: A Comparison of PubMed and Google Scholar for Quick Clinical Searches

PubMed Central

Bejaimal, Shayna AD; Sontrop, Jessica M; Iansavichus, Arthur V; Haynes, R Brian; Weir, Matthew A; Garg, Amit X

2013-01-01

Background Physicians frequently search PubMed for information to guide patient care. More recently, Google Scholar has gained popularity as another freely accessible bibliographic database. Objective To compare the performance of searches in PubMed and Google Scholar. Methods We surveyed nephrologists (kidney specialists) and provided each with a unique clinical question derived from 100 renal therapy systematic reviews. Each physician provided the search terms they would type into a bibliographic database to locate evidence to answer the clinical question. We executed each of these searches in PubMed and Google Scholar and compared results for the first 40 records retrieved (equivalent to 2 default search pages in PubMed). We evaluated the recall (proportion of relevant articles found) and precision (ratio of relevant to nonrelevant articles) of the searches performed in PubMed and Google Scholar. Primary studies included in the systematic reviews served as the reference standard for relevant articles. We further documented whether relevant articles were available as free full-texts. Results Compared with PubMed, the average search in Google Scholar retrieved twice as many relevant articles (PubMed: 11%; Google Scholar: 22%; P<.001). Precision was similar in both databases (PubMed: 6%; Google Scholar: 8%; P=.07). Google Scholar provided significantly greater access to free full-text publications (PubMed: 5%; Google Scholar: 14%; P<.001). Conclusions For quick clinical searches, Google Scholar returns twice as many relevant articles as PubMed and provides greater access to free full-text articles. PMID:23948488

Genetics Home Reference: ichthyosis with confetti

MedlinePlus

... from the University of Kansas Medical Center: Ichthyosis Scientific Articles on PubMed (1 link) PubMed OMIM (1 link) ... 1;330(6000):94-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1192280. Epub 2010 Aug 26. Citation on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Krunic AL, Palcesky D, Busbey S, ...

7 CFR 235.7 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... surveys. (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); 93 Stat. 837, Pub. L. 96-108 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 804, 816, 817 and 819, Pub. L...

7 CFR 235.11 - Other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

.... 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 805 and 819, Pub. L. 97-35, 95 Stat. 521-535 (42 U.S.C. 1773); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627...

7 CFR 235.7 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... surveys. (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); 93 Stat. 837, Pub. L. 96-108 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 804, 816, 817 and 819, Pub. L...

7 CFR 235.11 - Other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

.... 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 805 and 819, Pub. L. 97-35, 95 Stat. 521-535 (42 U.S.C. 1773); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627...

7 CFR 235.7 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... surveys. (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); 93 Stat. 837, Pub. L. 96-108 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 804, 816, 817 and 819, Pub. L...

7 CFR 235.7 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... surveys. (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); 93 Stat. 837, Pub. L. 96-108 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 804, 816, 817 and 819, Pub. L...

7 CFR 235.11 - Other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

.... 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 805 and 819, Pub. L. 97-35, 95 Stat. 521-535 (42 U.S.C. 1773); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627...

7 CFR 235.11 - Other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

.... 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 805 and 819, Pub. L. 97-35, 95 Stat. 521-535 (42 U.S.C. 1773); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627...

7 CFR 235.7 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... surveys. (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); 93 Stat. 837, Pub. L. 96-108 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 804, 816, 817 and 819, Pub. L...

7 CFR 235.11 - Other provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); secs. 805 and 819, Pub. L. 97-35, 95 Stat. 521-535 (42 U.S.C. 1773); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627...

Supersymmetric black holes and Freudenthal duality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrani, Alessio; Mandal, Taniya; Tripathy, Prasanta K.

2017-07-01

We study the effect of Freudenthal duality on supersymmetric extremal black hole attractors in 𝒩 = 2, D = 4 ungauged supergravity. Freudenthal duality acts on the dyonic black hole charges as an anti-involution which keeps the black hole entropy and the critical points of the effective black hole potential invariant. We analyze its effect on the recently discovered distinct, mutually exclusive phases of axionic supersymmetric black holes, related to the existence of nontrivial involutory constant matrices. In particular, we consider a supersymmetric D0 - D4 - D6 black hole and we explicitly Freudenthal-map it to a supersymmetric D0 - D2 - D4 - D6 black hole. We thus show that the charge representation space of a supersymmetric D0 - D2 - D4 - D6 black hole also contains mutually exclusive domains.

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

Assessing Crop Coefficients for Natural Vegetated Areas Using Satellite Data and Eddy Covariance Stations.

PubMed

Corbari, Chiara; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Galvagno, Marta; Cremonese, Edoardo; Mancini, Marco

2017-11-18

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) method for potential evapotranspiration assessment is based on the crop coefficient, which allows one to relate the reference evapotranspiration of well irrigated grass to the potential evapotranspiration of specific crops. The method was originally developed for cultivated species based on lysimeter measurements of potential evapotranspiration. Not many applications to natural vegetated areas exist due to the lack of available data for these species. In this paper we investigate the potential of using evapotranspiration measurements acquired by micrometeorological stations for the definition of crop coefficient functions of natural vegetated areas and extrapolation to ungauged sites through remotely sensed data. Pastures, deciduous and evergreen forests have been considered and lower crop coefficient values are found with respect to FAO data.

Some Facts About Asbestos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Virta, R.L.

2001-01-01

For information on historic asbestos mines, historic prospects and natural asbestos occurrences in the U.S., see: Eastern U.S. ---> Open-File Report 2005-1189 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1189/); Central U.S. ---> Open-File Report 2006-1211 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1211/); Rocky Mountain States ---> Open-File Report 2007-1182 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1182/); Southwest U.S. ---> Open-File Report 2008-1095 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1095/). For commodity statistics and information see: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/asbestos/

How smoke-free laws improve air quality: A global study of Irish pubs

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Carrie M.; Travers, Mark J.; Cummings, K. Michael; Hyland, Andrew; Mulcahy, Maurice; Clancy, Luke

2009-01-01

Introduction The present study examined indoor air quality in a global sample of smoke-free and smoking-permitted Irish pubs. We hypothesized that levels of respirable suspended particles, an important marker of secondhand smoke, would be significantly lower in smoke-free Irish pubs than in pubs that allowed smoking. Methods Indoor air quality was assessed in 128 Irish pubs in 15 countries between 21 January 2004 and 10 March 2006. Air quality was evaluated using an aerosol monitor, which measures the level of fine particle (PM2.5) pollution in the air. A standard measurement protocol was used by data collectors across study sites. Results Overall, the level of air pollution inside smoke-free Irish pubs was 93% lower than the level found in pubs where smoking was permitted. Discussion Levels of indoor air pollution can be massively reduced by enacting and enforcing smoke-free policies. PMID:19380381

How smoke-free laws improve air quality: a global study of Irish pubs.

PubMed

Connolly, Gregory N; Carpenter, Carrie M; Travers, Mark J; Cummings, K Michael; Hyland, Andrew; Mulcahy, Maurice; Clancy, Luke

2009-06-01

The present study examined indoor air quality in a global sample of smoke-free and smoking-permitted Irish pubs. We hypothesized that levels of respirable suspended particles, an important marker of secondhand smoke, would be significantly lower in smoke-free Irish pubs than in pubs that allowed smoking. Indoor air quality was assessed in 128 Irish pubs in 15 countries between 21 January 2004 and 10 March 2006. Air quality was evaluated using an aerosol monitor, which measures the level of fine particle (PM(2.5)) pollution in the air. A standard measurement protocol was used by data collectors across study sites. Overall, the level of air pollution inside smoke-free Irish pubs was 93% lower than the level found in pubs where smoking was permitted. Levels of indoor air pollution can be massively reduced by enacting and enforcing smoke-free policies.

10 CFR 205.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of 1973 (Pub. L. 93-159). EPCA means the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (Pub. L. 94-163...; Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-275, as amended, Pub. L. 94-385; Energy Policy and... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Definitions. 205.2 Section 205.2 Energy DEPARTMENT OF...

10 CFR 205.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of 1973 (Pub. L. 93-159). EPCA means the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (Pub. L. 94-163...; Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-275, as amended, Pub. L. 94-385; Energy Policy and... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Definitions. 205.2 Section 205.2 Energy DEPARTMENT OF...

10 CFR 205.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of 1973 (Pub. L. 93-159). EPCA means the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (Pub. L. 94-163...; Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-275, as amended, Pub. L. 94-385; Energy Policy and... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Definitions. 205.2 Section 205.2 Energy DEPARTMENT OF...

10 CFR 205.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of 1973 (Pub. L. 93-159). EPCA means the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (Pub. L. 94-163...; Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-275, as amended, Pub. L. 94-385; Energy Policy and... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Definitions. 205.2 Section 205.2 Energy DEPARTMENT OF...

PubChemSR: A search and retrieval tool for PubChem

PubMed Central

Hur, Junguk; Wild, David J

2008-01-01

Background Recent years have seen an explosion in the amount of publicly available chemical and related biological information. A significant step has been the emergence of PubChem, which contains property information for millions of chemical structures, and acts as a repository of compounds and bioassay screening data for the NIH Roadmap. There is a strong need for tools designed for scientists that permit easy download and use of these data. We present one such tool, PubChemSR. Implementation PubChemSR (Search and Retrieve) is a freely available desktop application written for Windows using Microsoft .NET that is designed to assist scientists in search, retrieval and organization of chemical and biological data from the PubChem database. It employs SOAP web services made available by NCBI for extraction of information from PubChem. Results and Discussion The program supports a wide range of searching techniques, including queries based on assay or compound keywords and chemical substructures. Results can be examined individually or downloaded and exported in batch for use in other programs such as Microsoft Excel. We believe that PubChemSR makes it straightforward for researchers to utilize the chemical, biological and screening data available in PubChem. We present several examples of how it can be used. PMID:18482452

A Java API for working with PubChem datasets.

PubMed

Southern, Mark R; Griffin, Patrick R

2011-03-01

PubChem is a public repository of chemical structures and associated biological activities. The PubChem BioAssay database contains assay descriptions, conditions and readouts and biological screening results that have been submitted by the biomedical research community. The PubChem web site and Power User Gateway (PUG) web service allow users to interact with the data and raw files are available via FTP. These resources are helpful to many but there can also be great benefit by using a software API to manipulate the data. Here, we describe a Java API with entity objects mapped to the PubChem Schema and with wrapper functions for calling the NCBI eUtilities and PubChem PUG web services. PubChem BioAssays and associated chemical compounds can then be queried and manipulated in a local relational database. Features include chemical structure searching and generation and display of curve fits from stored dose-response experiments, something that is not yet available within PubChem itself. The aim is to provide researchers with a fast, consistent, queryable local resource from which to manipulate PubChem BioAssays in a database agnostic manner. It is not intended as an end user tool but to provide a platform for further automation and tools development. http://code.google.com/p/pubchemdb.

25 CFR 1000.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Assistance Act of 1975, Pub. L. 93-638, as added by Pub. L. 103-413, amended by Pub. L. 104-109, as amended... Department of the Interior. Pub. L. 93-638 means sections 1-9 and Title I of the Indian Self-Determination... were available as a Tribal share but under the AFA were left with BIA to administer. Retrocession means...

25 CFR 1000.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Assistance Act of 1975, Pub. L. 93-638, as added by Pub. L. 103-413, amended by Pub. L. 104-109, as amended... Department of the Interior. Pub. L. 93-638 means sections 1-9 and Title I of the Indian Self-Determination... were available as a Tribal share but under the AFA were left with BIA to administer. Retrocession means...

25 CFR 1000.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Assistance Act of 1975, Pub. L. 93-638, as added by Pub. L. 103-413, amended by Pub. L. 104-109, as amended... Department of the Interior. Pub. L. 93-638 means sections 1-9 and Title I of the Indian Self-Determination... were available as a Tribal share but under the AFA were left with BIA to administer. Retrocession means...

25 CFR 1000.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Assistance Act of 1975, Pub. L. 93-638, as added by Pub. L. 103-413, amended by Pub. L. 104-109, as amended... Department of the Interior. Pub. L. 93-638 means sections 1-9 and Title I of the Indian Self-Determination... were available as a Tribal share but under the AFA were left with BIA to administer. Retrocession means...

US GeoData Available Through the Internet

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) offers certain US GeoData data sets through the Internet. They can be retrieved using the World Wide Web or anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP). The data bases and their directory paths are as follows: * 1:24,000-scale digital line graph data in SDTS format (/pub/data/DLG/24K) * 1:2,000,000-scale digital line graph data in SDTS format (/pub/data/DLG/2M) * 1:100,000-scale digital line graph data (/pub/data/DLG/100K) * 1:100,000-scale land use and land cover data (/pub/data/LULC/100K) * 1:250,000-scale land use and land cover data (/pub/data/LULC/250K) * 1-degree digital elevation model data (/pub/data/DEM/250)

PubChem applications in drug discovery: a bibliometric analysis

PubMed Central

Cheng, Tiejun; Pan, Yongmei; Hao, Ming; Wang, Yanli; Bryant, Stephen H.

2014-01-01

A bibliometric analysis of PubChem applications is presented by reviewing 1132 research articles. The massive volume of chemical structure and bioactivity data in PubChem and its online services has been used globally in various fields including chemical biology, medicinal chemistry and informatics research. PubChem supports drug discovery in many aspects such as lead identification and optimization, compound–target profiling, polypharmacology studies and unknown chemical identity elucidation. PubChem has also become a valuable resource for developing secondary databases, informatics tools and web services. The growing PubChem resource with its public availability offers support and great opportunities for the interrogation of pharmacological mechanisms and the genetic basis of diseases, which are vital for drug innovation and repurposing. PMID:25168772

Cross-evaluation of ground-based, multi-satellite and reanalysis precipitation products: Applicability of the Triple Collocation method across Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Changming; Tang, Guoqiang; Hong, Yang

2018-07-01

Evaluating the reliability of satellite and reanalysis precipitation products is critical but challenging over ungauged or poorly gauged regions. The Triple Collocation (TC) method is a reliable approach to estimate the accuracy of any three independent inputs in the absence of truth values. This study assesses the uncertainty of three types of independent precipitation products, i.e., satellite-based, ground-based and model reanalysis over Mainland China using the TC method. The ground-based data set is Gauge Based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA). The reanalysis data set is European Reanalysis Agency Reanalysis Product (ERA-interim). The satellite-based products include five mainstream satellite products. The comparison and evaluation are conducted at 0.25° and daily resolutions from 2013 to 2015. First, the effectiveness of the TC method is evaluated in South China with dense gauge network. The results demonstrate that the TC method is reliable because the correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) derived from TC are close to those derived from ground observations, with only 9% and 7% mean relative differences, respectively. Then, the TC method is applied in Mainland China, with special attention paid to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) known as the Earth's third pole with few ground stations. Results indicate that (1) The overall performance of IMERG is better than the other satellite products over Mainland China, followed by 3B42V7, CMORPH-CRT and PERSIANN-CDR. (2) In the TP, CGDPA shows the best overall performance over gauged grid cells, however, over ungauged regions, IMERG and ERA-interim slightly outperform CGDPA with similar RMSE but higher mean CC (0.63, 0.61, and 0.58, respectively). It highlights the strengths and potentiality of remote sensing and reanalysis data over the TP and reconfirms the cons of the inherent uncertainty of CGDPA due to interpolation from sparsely gauged data. The study concludes that the TC method provides not only reliable cross-validation results over Mainland China but also a new perspective for comparatively assessing multi-source precipitation products, particularly over poorly gauged regions such as the TP.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Su, C.-H.; Crow, W. T.; Robertson, D. E.; Leahy, C.

2014-09-01

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address systematic errors in the model.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Parameter transferability within homogeneous regions and comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouaib, Wafa; Alila, Younes; Caldwell, Peter V.

2018-05-01

The need for predictions of flow time-series persists at ungauged catchments, motivating the research goals of our study. By means of the Sacramento model, this paper explores the use of parameter transfer within homogeneous regions of similar climate and flow characteristics and makes comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters. We assessed the performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), bias, mean monthly hydrograph and flow duration curve (FDC). The study was conducted on a large dataset of 73 catchments within the eastern US. Two approaches to the parameter transferability were developed and evaluated; (i) the within homogeneous region parameter transfer using one donor catchment specific to each region, (ii) the parameter transfer disregarding the geographical limits of homogeneous regions, where one donor catchment was common to all regions. Comparisons between both parameter transfers enabled to assess the gain in performance from the parameter regionalization and its respective constraints and limitations. The parameter transfer within homogeneous regions outperformed the a priori parameters and led to a decrease in bias and increase in efficiency reaching a median NS of 0.77 and a NS of 0.85 at individual catchments. The use of FDC revealed the effect of bias on the inaccuracy of prediction from parameter transfer. In one specific region, of mountainous and forested catchments, the prediction accuracy of the parameter transfer was less satisfactory and equivalent to a priori parameters. In this region, the parameter transfer from the outsider catchment provided the best performance; less-biased with smaller uncertainty in medium flow percentiles (40%-60%). The large disparity of energy conditions explained the lack of performance from parameter transfer in this region. Besides, the subsurface stormflow is predominant and there is a likelihood of lateral preferential flow, which according to its specific properties further explained the reduced efficiency. Testing the parameter transferability using criteria of similar climate and flow characteristics at ungauged catchments and comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters are a novelty. The ultimate limitations of both approaches are recognized and recommendations are made for future research.

A Java API for working with PubChem datasets

PubMed Central

Southern, Mark R.; Griffin, Patrick R.

2011-01-01

Summary: PubChem is a public repository of chemical structures and associated biological activities. The PubChem BioAssay database contains assay descriptions, conditions and readouts and biological screening results that have been submitted by the biomedical research community. The PubChem web site and Power User Gateway (PUG) web service allow users to interact with the data and raw files are available via FTP. These resources are helpful to many but there can also be great benefit by using a software API to manipulate the data. Here, we describe a Java API with entity objects mapped to the PubChem Schema and with wrapper functions for calling the NCBI eUtilities and PubChem PUG web services. PubChem BioAssays and associated chemical compounds can then be queried and manipulated in a local relational database. Features include chemical structure searching and generation and display of curve fits from stored dose–response experiments, something that is not yet available within PubChem itself. The aim is to provide researchers with a fast, consistent, queryable local resource from which to manipulate PubChem BioAssays in a database agnostic manner. It is not intended as an end user tool but to provide a platform for further automation and tools development. Availability: http://code.google.com/p/pubchemdb Contact: southern@scripps.edu PMID:21216779

38 CFR 12.20 - Posting of notice provisions of Pub. L. 382.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... provisions of Pub. L. 382. 12.20 Section 12.20 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS DISPOSITION OF VETERAN'S PERSONAL FUNDS AND EFFECTS Under Pub. L. 382, 77th Congress, December 26, 1941, Amending the Act of June 25, 1910 (24 U.s.c. 136) § 12.20 Posting of notice provisions of Pub. L...

25 CFR 32.5 - Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. 32.5... POLICIES § 32.5 Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. The Director, Office Indian Education... with title XI of the Education Amendments of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-561), and in the January 1, 1981 annual...

38 CFR 3.953 - Pub. L. 85-56 and Pub. L. 85-857.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... privileges or benefits as a retired emergency officer of World War I, on December 31, 1958, under the laws in... laws, repealed by Pub. L. 85-56, including those service connected under the second proviso of section 200 of the World War Veterans' Act, 1924, as amended, are protected by section 2316(b), Pub. L. 85-56...

Synthesis, Biological Evaluation, and Structure–Activity Relationships of Novel Substituted N-Phenyl Ureidobenzenesulfonate Derivatives Blocking Cell Cycle Progression in S-Phase and Inducing DNA Double-Strand Breaks

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Twenty-eight new substituted N-phenyl ureidobenzenesulfonate (PUB-SO) and 18 N-phenylureidobenzenesulfonamide (PUB-SA) derivatives were prepared. Several PUB-SOs exhibited antiproliferative activity at the micromolar level against the HT-29, M21, and MCF-7 cell lines and blocked cell cycle progression in S-phase similarly to cisplatin. In addition, PUB-SOs induced histone H2AX (γH2AX) phosphorylation, indicating that these molecules induce DNA double-strand breaks. In contrast, PUB-SAs were less active than PUB-SOs and did not block cell cycle progression in S-phase. Finally, PUB-SOs 4 and 46 exhibited potent antitumor activity in HT-1080 fibrosarcoma cells grafted onto chick chorioallantoic membranes, which was similar to cisplatin and combretastatin A-4 and without significant toxicity toward chick embryos. These new compounds are members of a promising new class of anticancer agents. PMID:22694057

Synthesis, biological evaluation, and structure-activity relationships of novel substituted N-phenyl ureidobenzenesulfonate derivatives blocking cell cycle progression in S-phase and inducing DNA double-strand breaks.

PubMed

Turcotte, Vanessa; Fortin, Sébastien; Vevey, Florence; Coulombe, Yan; Lacroix, Jacques; Côté, Marie-France; Masson, Jean-Yves; C-Gaudreault, René

2012-07-12

Twenty-eight new substituted N-phenyl ureidobenzenesulfonate (PUB-SO) and 18 N-phenylureidobenzenesulfonamide (PUB-SA) derivatives were prepared. Several PUB-SOs exhibited antiproliferative activity at the micromolar level against the HT-29, M21, and MCF-7 cell lines and blocked cell cycle progression in S-phase similarly to cisplatin. In addition, PUB-SOs induced histone H2AX (γH2AX) phosphorylation, indicating that these molecules induce DNA double-strand breaks. In contrast, PUB-SAs were less active than PUB-SOs and did not block cell cycle progression in S-phase. Finally, PUB-SOs 4 and 46 exhibited potent antitumor activity in HT-1080 fibrosarcoma cells grafted onto chick chorioallantoic membranes, which was similar to cisplatin and combretastatin A-4 and without significant toxicity toward chick embryos. These new compounds are members of a promising new class of anticancer agents.

29 CFR 789.0 - Introductory statement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... assurance.” 1 Pub. L. 718, 75th Cong., 3d sess. (52 Stat. 1060), as amended by the Act of June 26, 1940 (Pub... (Pub. L. 393, 81st Cong., 1st sess., 63 Stat. 910); by Reorganization Plan No. 6 of 1950 (15 FR 3174), effective May 24, 1950; and by the Fair Labor Standards Amendments of 1955, approved August 12, 1955 (Pub. L...

29 CFR 789.0 - Introductory statement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... assurance.” 1 Pub. L. 718, 75th Cong., 3d sess. (52 Stat. 1060), as amended by the Act of June 26, 1940 (Pub... (Pub. L. 393, 81st Cong., 1st sess., 63 Stat. 910); by Reorganization Plan No. 6 of 1950 (15 FR 3174), effective May 24, 1950; and by the Fair Labor Standards Amendments of 1955, approved August 12, 1955 (Pub. L...

29 CFR 789.0 - Introductory statement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... assurance.” 1 Pub. L. 718, 75th Cong., 3d sess. (52 Stat. 1060), as amended by the Act of June 26, 1940 (Pub... (Pub. L. 393, 81st Cong., 1st sess., 63 Stat. 910); by Reorganization Plan No. 6 of 1950 (15 FR 3174), effective May 24, 1950; and by the Fair Labor Standards Amendments of 1955, approved August 12, 1955 (Pub. L...

The Tomato U-Box Type E3 Ligase PUB13 Acts With Group III Ubiquitin E2 Enzymes to Modulate FLS2-Mediated Immune Signaling

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bangjun; Zeng, Lirong

2018-01-01

In Arabidopsis and rice, the ubiquitin ligase PUB13-mediated protein degradation plays a significant role in plant pattern-triggered immunity (PTI) and flowering time control. The Arabidopsis PUB13 has been shown to attenuate the pattern recognition receptor FLS2-mediated immune signaling by ubiquitinating FLS2 and consequently promoting its degradation by the 26S proteasome. Nevertheless, the cognate ubiquitin-conjugating enzymes (E2) with which PUB13 acts to modulate FLS2-mediated PTI are unknown. To address this question, we investigate here the tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) homolog of PUB13, SlPUB13 by utilizing the recently characterized complete set of tomato E2s. Of the 13 groups of tomato E2s, only members in group III are found to interact and act with SlPUB13. Knocking-down of the group III E2 genes enhances callose deposition and induction of the RbohB gene in the immunity-associated, early oxidative burst after flg22 treatment. The group III E2s are also found to work with SlPUB13 to ubiquitinate FLS2 in vitro and are required for PUB13-mediated degradation of FLS2 in vivo upon flg22 treatment, suggesting an essential role for group III E2s in the modulation of FLS2-mediated immune signaling by PUB13. Additionally, another immunity-associated E3, NtCMPG1 is shown to also work specifically with members of group III E2 in the in vitro ubiquitination assay, which implies the group III E2 enzymes may cooperate with many E3 ligases to regulate different aspects of PTI. Taken together, these data corroborate the notion that group III E2 enzymes play an important role in PTI and build a foundation for further functional and mechanistic characterization of tomato PUB13.

Pub1p C-Terminal RRM Domain Interacts with Tif4631p through a Conserved Region Neighbouring the Pab1p Binding Site

PubMed Central

Rico-Lastres, Palma; Pérez-Cañadillas, José Manuel

2011-01-01

Pub1p, a highly abundant poly(A)+ mRNA binding protein in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, influences the stability and translational control of many cellular transcripts, particularly under some types of environmental stresses. We have studied the structure, RNA and protein recognition modes of different Pub1p constructs by NMR spectroscopy. The structure of the C-terminal RRM domain (RRM3) shows a non-canonical N-terminal helix that packs against the canonical RRM fold in an original fashion. This structural trait is conserved in Pub1p metazoan homologues, the TIA-1 family, defining a new class of RRM-type domains that we propose to name TRRM (TIA-1 C-terminal domain-like RRM). Pub1p TRRM and the N-terminal RRM1-RRM2 tandem bind RNA with high selectivity for U-rich sequences, with TRRM showing additional preference for UA-rich ones. RNA-mediated chemical shift changes map to β-sheet and protein loops in the three RRMs. Additionally, NMR titration and biochemical in vitro cross-linking experiments determined that Pub1p TRRM interacts specifically with the N-terminal region (1–402) of yeast eIF4G1 (Tif4631p), very likely through the conserved Box1, a short sequence motif neighbouring the Pab1p binding site in Tif4631p. The interaction involves conserved residues of Pub1p TRRM, which define a protein interface that mirrors the Pab1p-Tif4631p binding mode. Neither protein nor RNA recognition involves the novel N-terminal helix, whose functional role remains unclear. By integrating these new results with the current knowledge about Pub1p, we proposed different mechanisms of Pub1p recruitment to the mRNPs and Pub1p-mediated mRNA stabilization in which the Pub1p/Tif4631p interaction would play an important role. PMID:21931728

Towards PubMed 2.0.

PubMed

Fiorini, Nicolas; Lipman, David J; Lu, Zhiyong

2017-10-30

Staff from the National Center for Biotechnology Information in the US describe recent improvements to the PubMed search engine and outline plans for the future, including a new experimental site called PubMed Labs.

PubChem BioAssay: 2017 update

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanli; Bryant, Stephen H.; Cheng, Tiejun; Wang, Jiyao; Gindulyte, Asta; Shoemaker, Benjamin A.; Thiessen, Paul A.; He, Siqian; Zhang, Jian

2017-01-01

PubChem's BioAssay database (https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) has served as a public repository for small-molecule and RNAi screening data since 2004 providing open access of its data content to the community. PubChem accepts data submission from worldwide researchers at academia, industry and government agencies. PubChem also collaborates with other chemical biology database stakeholders with data exchange. With over a decade's development effort, it becomes an important information resource supporting drug discovery and chemical biology research. To facilitate data discovery, PubChem is integrated with all other databases at NCBI. In this work, we provide an update for the PubChem BioAssay database describing several recent development including added sources of research data, redesigned BioAssay record page, new BioAssay classification browser and new features in the Upload system facilitating data sharing. PMID:27899599

[Optimal Operational Definition of Patient with Peptic Ulcer Bleeding for Big Data Analysis Using Combination of Clinical Characteristics in a Secondary General Hospital].

PubMed

Lee, Jae Won; Kim, Hyun Ki; Woo, Yong Sik; Jahng, Jaehoon; Jin, Young Ran; Park, Jong Heon; Kim, Yong Sung; Jung, Hwoon Yong

2016-08-25

Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Korea but there has been no research done using big data. This study evaluates the optimal operational definition (OD) for big data research by analyzing clinical characteristics of PUB. We reviewed the clinical characteristics of 92 patients with PUB confirmed on endoscopy in Wonkwang University Sanbon Hospital (January 2013 to December 2014). We calculated sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) to detect confirmed PUB patients using ODs developed by combining clinical features of patients with PUB. The mean patient age was 63 years. Men had higher prevalence of PUB than women. Bleeding gastric ulcer was proportionately common in the age range of 40s to 60s in men, while a significantly higher rate of bleeding occurred in women older than 70s. The rate of drug-induced ulcer was 28.2%, whereas the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori was 47.8%. Among the hospitalized patients with diagnostic code of PUB, we ruled out patients with endoscopic removal of gastric adenoma or peritonitis, and selected patients who had been administered intravenous proton pump inhibitor. The sensitivity in this setting was 82.6%, and PPV was 88.4%. PUB was more common in older patients, and there was a clear gender difference in gastric ulcer bleeding by age. With a proper OD using PUB diagnostic codes, we can identify true patients with sufficiently high sensitivity and PPV.

Exploiting PubChem for Virtual Screening

PubMed Central

Xie, Xiang-Qun

2011-01-01

Importance of the field PubChem is a public molecular information repository, a scientific showcase of the NIH Roadmap Initiative. The PubChem database holds over 27 million records of unique chemical structures of compounds (CID) derived from nearly 70 million substance depositions (SID), and contains more than 449,000 bioassay records with over thousands of in vitro biochemical and cell-based screening bioassays established, with targeting more than 7000 proteins and genes linking to over 1.8 million of substances. Areas covered in this review This review builds on recent PubChem-related computational chemistry research reported by other authors while providing readers with an overview of the PubChem database, focusing on its increasing role in cheminformatics, virtual screening and toxicity prediction modeling. What the reader will gain These publicly available datasets in PubChem provide great opportunities for scientists to perform cheminformatics and virtual screening research for computer-aided drug design. However, the high volume and complexity of the datasets, in particular the bioassay-associated false positives/negatives and highly imbalanced datasets in PubChem, also creates major challenges. Several approaches regarding the modeling of PubChem datasets and development of virtual screening models for bioactivity and toxicity predictions are also reviewed. Take home message Novel data-mining cheminformatics tools and virtual screening algorithms are being developed and used to retrieve, annotate and analyze the large-scale and highly complex PubChem biological screening data for drug design. PMID:21691435

[Limiting a Medline/PubMed query to the "best" articles using the JCR relative impact factor].

PubMed

Avillach, P; Kerdelhué, G; Devos, P; Maisonneuve, H; Darmoni, S J

2014-12-01

Medline/PubMed is the most frequently used medical bibliographic research database. The aim of this study was to propose a new generic method to limit any Medline/PubMed query based on the relative impact factor and the A & B categories of the SIGAPS score. The entire PubMed corpus was used for the feasibility study, then ten frequent diseases in terms of PubMed indexing and the citations of four Nobel prize winners. The relative impact factor (RIF) was calculated by medical specialty defined in Journal Citation Reports. The two queries, which included all the journals in category A (or A OR B), were added to any Medline/PubMed query as a central point of the feasibility study. Limitation using the SIGAPS category A was larger than the when using the Core Clinical Journals (CCJ): 15.65% of PubMed corpus vs 8.64% for CCJ. The response time of this limit applied to the entire PubMed corpus was less than two seconds. For five diseases out of ten, limiting the citations with the RIF was more effective than with the CCJ. For the four Nobel prize winners, limiting the citations with the RIF was more effective than the CCJ. The feasibility study to apply a new filter based on the relative impact factor on any Medline/PubMed query was positive. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Five-Dimensional Gauged Supergravity with Higher Derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanaki, Kentaro

This thesis summarizes the recent developments on the study of five-dimensional gauged supergravity with higher derivative terms, emphasizing in particular the application to understanding the hydrodynamic properties of gauge theory plasma via the AdS/CFT correspondence. We first review how the ungauged and gauged five-dimensional supergravity actions with higher derivative terms can be constructed using the off-shell superconformal formalism. Then we relate the gauged supergravity to four-dimensional gauge theory using the AdS/CFT correspondence and extract the physical quantities associated with gauge theory plasma from the dual classical supergravity computations. We put a particular emphasis on the discussion of the conjectured lower bound for the shear viscosity over entropy density ratio proposed by Kovtun, Son and Starinets, and discuss how higher derivative terms in supergravity and the introduction of chemical potential for the R-charge affect this bound.

7 CFR 235.4 - Allocation of funds to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

.... (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3622 (42 U.S.C. 1751); Pub. L. 96-499, secs. 201 and..., 1759a, 1774 and 1776); E.O. 12372 (July 14, 1982, 47 FR 30959); sec. 401(b) Intergovernmental...

7 CFR 235.4 - Allocation of funds to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

.... (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3622 (42 U.S.C. 1751); Pub. L. 96-499, secs. 201 and..., 1759a, 1774 and 1776); E.O. 12372 (July 14, 1982, 47 FR 30959); sec. 401(b) Intergovernmental...

7 CFR 235.4 - Allocation of funds to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

.... (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3622 (42 U.S.C. 1751); Pub. L. 96-499, secs. 201 and..., 1759a, 1774 and 1776); E.O. 12372 (July 14, 1982, 47 FR 30959); sec. 401(b) Intergovernmental...

7 CFR 235.4 - Allocation of funds to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

.... (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3622 (42 U.S.C. 1751); Pub. L. 96-499, secs. 201 and..., 1759a, 1774 and 1776); E.O. 12372 (July 14, 1982, 47 FR 30959); sec. 401(b) Intergovernmental...

7 CFR 235.4 - Allocation of funds to States.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... (Sec. 14, Pub. L. 95-166, 91 Stat. 1338 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7, Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3621 (42 U.S.C. 1776); sec. 7(a), Pub. L. 95-627, 92 Stat. 3622 (42 U.S.C. 1751); Pub. L. 96-499, secs. 201 and..., 1759a, 1774 and 1776); E.O. 12372 (July 14, 1982, 47 FR 30959); sec. 401(b) Intergovernmental...

The U-box family genes in Medicago truncatula: Key elements in response to salt, cold, and drought stresses.

PubMed

Song, Jianbo; Mo, Xiaowei; Yang, Haiqi; Yue, Luming; Song, Jun; Mo, Beixin

2017-01-01

The ubiquitination pathway regulates growth, development, and stress responses in plants, and the U-box protein family of ubiquitin ligases has important roles in this pathway. Here, 64 putative U-box proteins were identified in the Medicago truncatula genome. In addition to the conserved U-box motif, other functional domains, such as the ARM, kinase, KAP, and WD40 domains, were also detected. Phylogenetic analysis of the M. truncatula U-box proteins grouped them into six subfamilies, and chromosomal mapping and synteny analyses indicated that tandem and segmental duplications may have contributed to the expansion and evolution of the U-box gene family in this species. Using RNA-seq data from M. truncatula seedlings subjected to three different abiotic stresses, we identified 33 stress-inducible plant U-box genes (MtPUBs). Specifically, 25 salinity-, 15 drought-, and 16 cold-regulated MtPUBs were detected. Among them, MtPUB10, MtPUB17, MtPUB18, MtPUB35, MtPUB42, and MtPUB44 responded to all three stress conditions. Expression profiling by qRT-PCR was consistent with the RNA-seq data, and stress-related elements were identified in the promoter regions. The present findings strongly indicate that U-box proteins play critical roles in abiotic stress response in M. truncatula.

PubChem promiscuity: a web resource for gathering compound promiscuity data from PubChem.

PubMed

Canny, Stephanie A; Cruz, Yasel; Southern, Mark R; Griffin, Patrick R

2012-01-01

Promiscuity counts allow for a better understanding of a compound's assay activity profile and drug potential. Although PubChem contains a vast amount of compound and assay data, it currently does not have a convenient or efficient method to obtain in-depth promiscuity counts for compounds. PubChem promiscuity fills this gap. It is a Java servlet that uses NCBI Entrez (eUtils) web services to interact with PubChem and provide promiscuity counts in a variety of categories along with compound descriptors, including PAINS-based functional group detection. http://chemutils.florida.scripps.edu/pcpromiscuity southern@scripps.edu

PubChem promiscuity: a web resource for gathering compound promiscuity data from PubChem

PubMed Central

Canny, Stephanie A.; Cruz, Yasel; Southern, Mark R.; Griffin, Patrick R.

2012-01-01

Summary: Promiscuity counts allow for a better understanding of a compound's assay activity profile and drug potential. Although PubChem contains a vast amount of compound and assay data, it currently does not have a convenient or efficient method to obtain in-depth promiscuity counts for compounds. PubChem promiscuity fills this gap. It is a Java servlet that uses NCBI Entrez (eUtils) web services to interact with PubChem and provide promiscuity counts in a variety of categories along with compound descriptors, including PAINS-based functional group detection. Availability: http://chemutils.florida.scripps.edu/pcpromiscuity Contact: southern@scripps.edu PMID:22084255

Genetics Home Reference: lymphedema-distichiasis syndrome

MedlinePlus

... on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Erickson RP, Dagenais SL, Caulder MS, Downs CA, Herman ... article on PubMed Central Fang J, Dagenais SL, Erickson RP, Arlt MF, Glynn MW, Gorski JL, Seaver ...

Genetics Home Reference: VACTERL association

MedlinePlus

... PubMed Raam MS, Pineda-Alvarez DE, Hadley DW, Solomon BD. Long-term outcomes of adults with features ... on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Solomon BD, Pineda-Alvarez DE, Raam MS, Bous SM, ...

Towards PubMed 2.0

PubMed Central

Fiorini, Nicolas; Lipman, David J; Lu, Zhiyong

2017-01-01

Staff from the National Center for Biotechnology Information in the US describe recent improvements to the PubMed search engine and outline plans for the future, including a new experimental site called PubMed Labs. PMID:29083299

Genetics Home Reference: congenital myasthenic syndrome

MedlinePlus

... 1196/annals.1405.049. Citation on PubMed Engel AG, Shen XM, Selcen D, Sine SM. What have ... PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Engel AG. Current status of the congenital myasthenic syndromes. Neuromuscul ...

Genetics Home Reference: Robinow syndrome

MedlinePlus

... PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central White JJ, Mazzeu JF, Coban-Akdemir Z, Bayram Y, Bahrambeigi ... Epub ahead of print] Citation on PubMed White JJ, Mazzeu JF, Hoischen A, Bayram Y, Withers M, ...

Accelerating literature curation with text-mining tools: a case study of using PubTator to curate genes in PubMed abstracts

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhiyong

2012-01-01

Today’s biomedical research has become heavily dependent on access to the biological knowledge encoded in expert curated biological databases. As the volume of biological literature grows rapidly, it becomes increasingly difficult for biocurators to keep up with the literature because manual curation is an expensive and time-consuming endeavour. Past research has suggested that computer-assisted curation can improve efficiency, but few text-mining systems have been formally evaluated in this regard. Through participation in the interactive text-mining track of the BioCreative 2012 workshop, we developed PubTator, a PubMed-like system that assists with two specific human curation tasks: document triage and bioconcept annotation. On the basis of evaluation results from two external user groups, we find that the accuracy of PubTator-assisted curation is comparable with that of manual curation and that PubTator can significantly increase human curatorial speed. These encouraging findings warrant further investigation with a larger number of publications to be annotated. Database URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Lu/Demo/PubTator/ PMID:23160414

PubDNA Finder: a web database linking full-text articles to sequences of nucleic acids.

PubMed

García-Remesal, Miguel; Cuevas, Alejandro; Pérez-Rey, David; Martín, Luis; Anguita, Alberto; de la Iglesia, Diana; de la Calle, Guillermo; Crespo, José; Maojo, Víctor

2010-11-01

PubDNA Finder is an online repository that we have created to link PubMed Central manuscripts to the sequences of nucleic acids appearing in them. It extends the search capabilities provided by PubMed Central by enabling researchers to perform advanced searches involving sequences of nucleic acids. This includes, among other features (i) searching for papers mentioning one or more specific sequences of nucleic acids and (ii) retrieving the genetic sequences appearing in different articles. These additional query capabilities are provided by a searchable index that we created by using the full text of the 176 672 papers available at PubMed Central at the time of writing and the sequences of nucleic acids appearing in them. To automatically extract the genetic sequences occurring in each paper, we used an original method we have developed. The database is updated monthly by automatically connecting to the PubMed Central FTP site to retrieve and index new manuscripts. Users can query the database via the web interface provided. PubDNA Finder can be freely accessed at http://servet.dia.fi.upm.es:8080/pubdnafinder

Supplementary searches of PubMed to improve currency of MEDLINE and MEDLINE In-Process searches via Ovid.

PubMed

Duffy, Steven; de Kock, Shelley; Misso, Kate; Noake, Caro; Ross, Janine; Stirk, Lisa

2016-10-01

The research investigated whether conducting a supplementary search of PubMed in addition to the main MEDLINE (Ovid) search for a systematic review is worthwhile and to ascertain whether this PubMed search can be conducted quickly and if it retrieves unique, recently published, and ahead-of-print studies that are subsequently considered for inclusion in the final systematic review. Searches of PubMed were conducted after MEDLINE (Ovid) and MEDLINE In-Process (Ovid) searches had been completed for seven recent reviews. The searches were limited to records not in MEDLINE or MEDLINE In-Process (Ovid). Additional unique records were identified for all of the investigated reviews. Search strategies were adapted quickly to run in PubMed, and reviewer screening of the results was not time consuming. For each of the investigated reviews, studies were ordered for full screening; in six cases, studies retrieved from the supplementary PubMed searches were included in the final systematic review. Supplementary searching of PubMed for studies unavailable elsewhere is worthwhile and improves the currency of the systematic reviews.

Supplementary searches of PubMed to improve currency of MEDLINE and MEDLINE In-Process searches via Ovid

PubMed Central

Duffy, Steven; de Kock, Shelley; Misso, Kate; Noake, Caro; Ross, Janine; Stirk, Lisa

2016-01-01

Objective The research investigated whether conducting a supplementary search of PubMed in addition to the main MEDLINE (Ovid) search for a systematic review is worthwhile and to ascertain whether this PubMed search can be conducted quickly and if it retrieves unique, recently published, and ahead-of-print studies that are subsequently considered for inclusion in the final systematic review. Methods Searches of PubMed were conducted after MEDLINE (Ovid) and MEDLINE In-Process (Ovid) searches had been completed for seven recent reviews. The searches were limited to records not in MEDLINE or MEDLINE In-Process (Ovid). Results Additional unique records were identified for all of the investigated reviews. Search strategies were adapted quickly to run in PubMed, and reviewer screening of the results was not time consuming. For each of the investigated reviews, studies were ordered for full screening; in six cases, studies retrieved from the supplementary PubMed searches were included in the final systematic review. Conclusion Supplementary searching of PubMed for studies unavailable elsewhere is worthwhile and improves the currency of the systematic reviews. PMID:27822154

GOClonto: an ontological clustering approach for conceptualizing PubMed abstracts.

PubMed

Zheng, Hai-Tao; Borchert, Charles; Kim, Hong-Gee

2010-02-01

Concurrent with progress in biomedical sciences, an overwhelming of textual knowledge is accumulating in the biomedical literature. PubMed is the most comprehensive database collecting and managing biomedical literature. To help researchers easily understand collections of PubMed abstracts, numerous clustering methods have been proposed to group similar abstracts based on their shared features. However, most of these methods do not explore the semantic relationships among groupings of documents, which could help better illuminate the groupings of PubMed abstracts. To address this issue, we proposed an ontological clustering method called GOClonto for conceptualizing PubMed abstracts. GOClonto uses latent semantic analysis (LSA) and gene ontology (GO) to identify key gene-related concepts and their relationships as well as allocate PubMed abstracts based on these key gene-related concepts. Based on two PubMed abstract collections, the experimental results show that GOClonto is able to identify key gene-related concepts and outperforms the STC (suffix tree clustering) algorithm, the Lingo algorithm, the Fuzzy Ants algorithm, and the clustering based TRS (tolerance rough set) algorithm. Moreover, the two ontologies generated by GOClonto show significant informative conceptual structures.

PubMed searches: overview and strategies for clinicians.

PubMed

Lindsey, Wesley T; Olin, Bernie R

2013-04-01

PubMed is a biomedical and life sciences database maintained by a division of the National Library of Medicine known as the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). It is a large resource with more than 5600 journals indexed and greater than 22 million total citations. Searches conducted in PubMed provide references that are more specific for the intended topic compared with other popular search engines. Effective PubMed searches allow the clinician to remain current on the latest clinical trials, systematic reviews, and practice guidelines. PubMed continues to evolve by allowing users to create a customized experience through the My NCBI portal, new arrangements and options in search filters, and supporting scholarly projects through exportation of citations to reference managing software. Prepackaged search options available in the Clinical Queries feature also allow users to efficiently search for clinical literature. PubMed also provides information regarding the source journals themselves through the Journals in NCBI Databases link. This article provides an overview of the PubMed database's structure and features as well as strategies for conducting an effective search.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Genetics Home Reference: nonsyndromic holoprosencephaly

MedlinePlus

... on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Solomon BD, Gropman A, Muenke M. Holoprosencephaly Overview. 2000 ... nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK1530/ Citation on PubMed Solomon BD, Mercier S, Vélez JI, Pineda-Alvarez DE, Wyllie ...

Genetics Home Reference: giant axonal neuropathy

MedlinePlus

... 002. Epub 2014 Dec 19. Citation on PubMed Johnson-Kerner BL, Garcia Diaz A, Ekins S, Wichterle H. ... on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Johnson-Kerner BL, Roth L, Greene JP, Wichterle H, ...

Genetics Home Reference: dentinogenesis imperfecta

MedlinePlus

... Epub 2004 Feb 3. Citation on PubMed McKnight DA, Simmer JP, Hart PS, Hart TC, Fisher LW. ... PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central McKnight DA, Suzanne Hart P, Hart TC, Hartsfield JK, Wilson ...

Correction to: The minimally invasive flexor carpi radialis approach: a new perspective for distal radius fractures.

PubMed

Igeta, Yuka; Vernet, Paul; Facca, Sybille; Naroura, Ismaël; Hidalgo Diaz, Juan José; Liverneaux, Philippe A

2018-03-03

With regards to Juan José Hidalgo Diaz, fifth author. The author's name is incorrectly listed on Pub-Med. The first and last name has been mixed up.Correct first name is: JJ (on PubMed: JJH.).Correct last name is: Hidalgo Diaz (on PubMed: Diaz).On SpringerLink the name is listed correctly, but on PubMed he is listed as Diaz JJH.

CoPub: a literature-based keyword enrichment tool for microarray data analysis.

PubMed

Frijters, Raoul; Heupers, Bart; van Beek, Pieter; Bouwhuis, Maurice; van Schaik, René; de Vlieg, Jacob; Polman, Jan; Alkema, Wynand

2008-07-01

Medline is a rich information source, from which links between genes and keywords describing biological processes, pathways, drugs, pathologies and diseases can be extracted. We developed a publicly available tool called CoPub that uses the information in the Medline database for the biological interpretation of microarray data. CoPub allows batch input of multiple human, mouse or rat genes and produces lists of keywords from several biomedical thesauri that are significantly correlated with the set of input genes. These lists link to Medline abstracts in which the co-occurring input genes and correlated keywords are highlighted. Furthermore, CoPub can graphically visualize differentially expressed genes and over-represented keywords in a network, providing detailed insight in the relationships between genes and keywords, and revealing the most influential genes as highly connected hubs. CoPub is freely accessible at http://services.nbic.nl/cgi-bin/copub/CoPub.pl.

Heterologous Expression and Molecular and Cellular Characterization of CaPUB1 Encoding a Hot Pepper U-Box E3 Ubiquitin Ligase Homolog1[C

PubMed Central

Cho, Seok Keun; Chung, Hoo Sun; Ryu, Moon Young; Park, Mi Jin; Lee, Myeong Min; Bahk, Young-Yil; Kim, Jungmook; Pai, Hyun Sook; Kim, Woo Taek

2006-01-01

The U-box motif is a conserved domain found in the diverse isoforms of E3 ubiquitin ligase in eukaryotes. From water-stressed hot pepper (Capsicum annuum L. cv Pukang) plants, we isolated C. annuum putative U-box protein 1 (CaPUB1), which encodes a protein containing a single U-box motif in its N-terminal region. In vitro ubiquitination and site-directed mutagenesis assays revealed that CaPUB1 possessed E3 ubiquitin ligase activity and that the U-box motif was indeed essential for its enzyme activity. RNA gel-blot analysis showed that CaPUB1 mRNA was induced rapidly by a broad spectrum of abiotic stresses, including drought, high salinity, cold temperature, and mechanical wounding, but not in response to ethylene, abscisic acid, or a bacterial pathogen, suggesting its role in the early events in the abiotic-related defense response. Because transgenic work was extremely difficult in hot pepper, in this study we overexpressed CaPUB1 in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) to provide cellular information on the function of this gene in the development and plant responses to abiotic stresses. Transgenic Arabidopsis plants that constitutively expressed the CaPUB1 gene under the control of the cauliflower mosaic virus 35S promoter had markedly longer hypocotyls and roots and grew more rapidly than the wild type, leading to an early bolting phenotype. Microscopic analysis showed that 35S∷CaPUB1 roots had increased numbers of small-sized cells, resulting in disordered, highly populated cell layers in the cortex, endodermis, and stele. In addition, CaPUB1-overexpressing plants displayed increased sensitivity to water stress and mild salinity. These results indicate that CaPUB1 is functional in Arabidopsis cells, thereby effectively altering cell and tissue growth and also the response to abiotic stresses. Comparative proteomic analysis showed that the level of RPN6 protein, a non-ATPase subunit of the 26S proteasome complex, was significantly reduced in 35S∷CaPUB1 seedlings as compared to the wild type. Pull-down and ubiquitination assays demonstrated that RPN6 interacted physically with CaPUB1 and was ubiquitinated in a CaPUB1-dependent manner in vitro. Although the physiological function of CaPUB1 is not yet clear, there are several possibilities for its involvement in a subset of physiological responses to counteract dehydration and high-salinity stresses in transgenic Arabidopsis seedlings. PMID:17041029

Overall mortality among patients surviving an episode of peptic ulcer bleeding

PubMed Central

Ruigomez, A.; Rodriguez, L. A.; Hasselgren, G.; Johansson, S.; Wallander, M.

2000-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE—The authors investigated whether patients who have survived an acute episode of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) have an excess long term all cause mortality compared with the general population free of PUB.
DESIGN—Follow up study of previously identified cohort of patients with a PUB episode and a general population cohort.
SETTING—The source population included all people aged 30 to 89 years, registered with general practitioners in the United Kingdom.
PATIENTS—All patients alive one month after the PUB episode constituted the cohort of PUB patients (n=978). A control group of 5000 people was randomly sampled from the source population. The same eligibility criteria as for patients with PUB were applied to the control series. Also, controls had to be free of PUB before start date.
MAIN RESULTS—Relative risk of mortality among PUB patients was 2.1, 95%CI: 1.7, 2.6) compared with the general population. This increased mortality risk occurred mainly in the patients less than 60 years old. No difference was observed between men and women. The excess mortality was not only circumscribed to deaths attributable to recurrent gastrointestinal bleed, but also cardiovascular, cancer and other causes.
CONCLUSIONS—People who have survived an acute episode of PUB have a reduced long term survival compared with the general population.This reduction was stronger among middle age patients than in the elderly.


Keywords: cohort study; mortality; peptic ulcer; bleeding; population-based study PMID:10715746

Use of scientific social networking to improve the research strategies of PubMed readers.

PubMed

Evdokimov, Pavel; Kudryavtsev, Alexey; Ilgisonis, Ekaterina; Ponomarenko, Elena; Lisitsa, Andrey

2016-02-18

Keeping up with journal articles on a daily basis is an important activity of scientists engaged in biomedical research. Usually, journal articles and papers in the field of biomedicine are accessed through the Medline/PubMed electronic library. In the process of navigating PubMed, researchers unknowingly generate user-specific reading profiles that can be shared within a social networking environment. This paper examines the structure of the social networking environment generated by PubMed users. A web browser plugin was developed to map [in Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms] the reading patterns of individual PubMed users. We developed a scientific social network based on the personal research profiles of readers of biomedical articles. A browser plugin is used to record the digital object identifier or PubMed ID of web pages. Recorded items are posted on the activity feed and automatically mapped to PubMed abstract. Within the activity feed a user can trace back previously browsed articles and insert comments. By calculating the frequency with which specific MeSH occur, the research interests of PubMed users can be visually represented with a tag cloud. Finally, research profiles can be searched for matches between network users. A social networking environment was created using MeSH terms to map articles accessed through the Medline/PubMed online library system. In-network social communication is supported by the recommendation of articles and by matching users with similar scientific interests. The system is available at http://bioknol.org/en/.

PubMedPortable: A Framework for Supporting the Development of Text Mining Applications.

PubMed

Döring, Kersten; Grüning, Björn A; Telukunta, Kiran K; Thomas, Philippe; Günther, Stefan

2016-01-01

Information extraction from biomedical literature is continuously growing in scope and importance. Many tools exist that perform named entity recognition, e.g. of proteins, chemical compounds, and diseases. Furthermore, several approaches deal with the extraction of relations between identified entities. The BioCreative community supports these developments with yearly open challenges, which led to a standardised XML text annotation format called BioC. PubMed provides access to the largest open biomedical literature repository, but there is no unified way of connecting its data to natural language processing tools. Therefore, an appropriate data environment is needed as a basis to combine different software solutions and to develop customised text mining applications. PubMedPortable builds a relational database and a full text index on PubMed citations. It can be applied either to the complete PubMed data set or an arbitrary subset of downloaded PubMed XML files. The software provides the infrastructure to combine stand-alone applications by exporting different data formats, e.g. BioC. The presented workflows show how to use PubMedPortable to retrieve, store, and analyse a disease-specific data set. The provided use cases are well documented in the PubMedPortable wiki. The open-source software library is small, easy to use, and scalable to the user's system requirements. It is freely available for Linux on the web at https://github.com/KerstenDoering/PubMedPortable and for other operating systems as a virtual container. The approach was tested extensively and applied successfully in several projects.

PubMedPortable: A Framework for Supporting the Development of Text Mining Applications

PubMed Central

Döring, Kersten; Grüning, Björn A.; Telukunta, Kiran K.; Thomas, Philippe; Günther, Stefan

2016-01-01

Information extraction from biomedical literature is continuously growing in scope and importance. Many tools exist that perform named entity recognition, e.g. of proteins, chemical compounds, and diseases. Furthermore, several approaches deal with the extraction of relations between identified entities. The BioCreative community supports these developments with yearly open challenges, which led to a standardised XML text annotation format called BioC. PubMed provides access to the largest open biomedical literature repository, but there is no unified way of connecting its data to natural language processing tools. Therefore, an appropriate data environment is needed as a basis to combine different software solutions and to develop customised text mining applications. PubMedPortable builds a relational database and a full text index on PubMed citations. It can be applied either to the complete PubMed data set or an arbitrary subset of downloaded PubMed XML files. The software provides the infrastructure to combine stand-alone applications by exporting different data formats, e.g. BioC. The presented workflows show how to use PubMedPortable to retrieve, store, and analyse a disease-specific data set. The provided use cases are well documented in the PubMedPortable wiki. The open-source software library is small, easy to use, and scalable to the user’s system requirements. It is freely available for Linux on the web at https://github.com/KerstenDoering/PubMedPortable and for other operating systems as a virtual container. The approach was tested extensively and applied successfully in several projects. PMID:27706202

Technical development of PubMed interact: an improved interface for MEDLINE/PubMed searches.

PubMed

Muin, Michael; Fontelo, Paul

2006-11-03

The project aims to create an alternative search interface for MEDLINE/PubMed that may provide assistance to the novice user and added convenience to the advanced user. An earlier version of the project was the 'Slider Interface for MEDLINE/PubMed searches' (SLIM) which provided JavaScript slider bars to control search parameters. In this new version, recent developments in Web-based technologies were implemented. These changes may prove to be even more valuable in enhancing user interactivity through client-side manipulation and management of results. PubMed Interact is a Web-based MEDLINE/PubMed search application built with HTML, JavaScript and PHP. It is implemented on a Windows Server 2003 with Apache 2.0.52, PHP 4.4.1 and MySQL 4.1.18. PHP scripts provide the backend engine that connects with E-Utilities and parses XML files. JavaScript manages client-side functionalities and converts Web pages into interactive platforms using dynamic HTML (DHTML), Document Object Model (DOM) tree manipulation and Ajax methods. With PubMed Interact, users can limit searches with JavaScript slider bars, preview result counts, delete citations from the list, display and add related articles and create relevance lists. Many interactive features occur at client-side, which allow instant feedback without reloading or refreshing the page resulting in a more efficient user experience. PubMed Interact is a highly interactive Web-based search application for MEDLINE/PubMed that explores recent trends in Web technologies like DOM tree manipulation and Ajax. It may become a valuable technical development for online medical search applications.

MedlinePlus FAQ: MedlinePlus and MEDLINE/PubMed

MedlinePlus

... What is the difference between MedlinePlus and MEDLINE/PubMed? To use the sharing features on this page, ... latest health professional articles on your topic. MEDLINE/PubMed: Is a database of professional biomedical literature Is ...

Genetics Home Reference: Carpenter syndrome

MedlinePlus

... doi: 10.1097/SCS.0b013e318184357a. Citation on PubMed Jenkins D, Baynam G, De Catte L, Elcioglu N, ... on PubMed or Free article on PubMed Central Jenkins D, Seelow D, Jehee FS, Perlyn CA, Alonso ...

PubMed vs. HighWire Press: a head-to-head comparison of two medical literature search engines.

PubMed

Vanhecke, Thomas E; Barnes, Michael A; Zimmerman, Janet; Shoichet, Sandor

2007-09-01

PubMed and HighWire Press are both useful medical literature search engines available for free to anyone on the internet. We measured retrieval accuracy, number of results generated, retrieval speed, features and search tools on HighWire Press and PubMed using the quick search features of each. We found that using HighWire Press resulted in a higher likelihood of retrieving the desired article and higher number of search results than the same search on PubMed. PubMed was faster than HighWire Press in delivering search results regardless of search settings. There are considerable differences in search features between these two search engines.

[Use of PubMed to improve evidence-based medicine in routine urological practice].

PubMed

Rink, M; Kluth, L A; Shariat, S F; Chun, F K; Fisch, M; Dahm, P

2013-03-01

Applying evidence-based medicine in daily clinical practice is the basis of patient-centered medicine and knowledge of accurate literature acquisition skills is necessary for informed clinical decision-making. PubMed is an easy accessible, free bibliographic database comprising over 21 million citations from the medical field, life-science journals and online books. The article summarizes the effective use of PubMed in routine urological clinical practice based on a common case scenario. This article explains the simple use of PubMed to obtain the best search results with the highest evidence. Accurate knowledge about the use of PubMed in routine clinical practice can improve evidence-based medicine and also patient treatment.

PUB1 Interacts with the Receptor Kinase DMI2 and Negatively Regulates Rhizobial and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbioses through Its Ubiquitination Activity in Medicago truncatula.

PubMed

Vernié, Tatiana; Camut, Sylvie; Camps, Céline; Rembliere, Céline; de Carvalho-Niebel, Fernanda; Mbengue, Malick; Timmers, Ton; Gasciolli, Virginie; Thompson, Richard; le Signor, Christine; Lefebvre, Benoit; Cullimore, Julie; Hervé, Christine

2016-04-01

PUB1, an E3 ubiquitin ligase, which interacts with and is phosphorylated by the LYK3 symbiotic receptor kinase, negatively regulates rhizobial infection and nodulation during the nitrogen-fixing root nodule symbiosis in Medicago truncatula In this study, we show that PUB1 also interacts with and is phosphorylated by DOES NOT MAKE INFECTIONS 2, the key symbiotic receptor kinase of the common symbiosis signaling pathway, required for both the rhizobial and the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) endosymbioses. We also show here that PUB1 expression is activated during successive stages of root colonization by Rhizophagus irregularis that is compatible with its interaction with DOES NOT MAKE INFECTIONS 2. Through characterization of a mutant, pub1-1, affected by the E3 ubiquitin ligase activity of PUB1, we have shown that the ubiquitination activity of PUB1 is required to negatively modulate successive stages of infection and development of rhizobial and AM symbioses. In conclusion, PUB1 represents, to our knowledge, a novel common component of symbiotic signaling integrating signal perception through interaction with and phosphorylation by two key symbiotic receptor kinases, and downstream signaling via its ubiquitination activity to fine-tune both rhizobial and AM root endosymbioses. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

The U-box family genes in Medicago truncatula: Key elements in response to salt, cold, and drought stresses

PubMed Central

Yang, Haiqi; Yue, Luming; Song, Jun

2017-01-01

The ubiquitination pathway regulates growth, development, and stress responses in plants, and the U-box protein family of ubiquitin ligases has important roles in this pathway. Here, 64 putative U-box proteins were identified in the Medicago truncatula genome. In addition to the conserved U-box motif, other functional domains, such as the ARM, kinase, KAP, and WD40 domains, were also detected. Phylogenetic analysis of the M. truncatula U-box proteins grouped them into six subfamilies, and chromosomal mapping and synteny analyses indicated that tandem and segmental duplications may have contributed to the expansion and evolution of the U-box gene family in this species. Using RNA-seq data from M. truncatula seedlings subjected to three different abiotic stresses, we identified 33 stress-inducible plant U-box genes (MtPUBs). Specifically, 25 salinity-, 15 drought-, and 16 cold-regulated MtPUBs were detected. Among them, MtPUB10, MtPUB17, MtPUB18, MtPUB35, MtPUB42, and MtPUB44 responded to all three stress conditions. Expression profiling by qRT-PCR was consistent with the RNA-seq data, and stress-related elements were identified in the promoter regions. The present findings strongly indicate that U-box proteins play critical roles in abiotic stress response in M. truncatula. PMID:28771553

Quantity and quality assessment of randomized controlled trials on orthodontic practice in PubMed.

PubMed

Shimada, Tatsuo; Takayama, Hisako; Nakamura, Yoshiki

2010-07-01

To find current high-quality evidence for orthodontic practice within a reasonable time, we tested the performance of a PubMed search. PubMed was searched using publication type randomized controlled trial and medical subject heading term "orthodontics" for articles published between 2003 and 2007. The PubMed search results were compared with those from a hand search of four orthodontic journals to determine the sensitivity of PubMed search. We evaluated the precision of the PubMed search result and assessed the quality of individual randomized controlled trials using the Jadad scale. Sensitivity and precision were 97.46% and 58.12%, respectively. In PubMed, of the 277 articles retrieved, 161 (58.12%) were randomized controlled trials on orthodontic practice, and 115 of the 161 articles (71.42%) were published in four orthodontic journals: American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, The Angle Orthodontist, the European Journal of Orthodontics, and the Journal of Orthodontics. Assessment by the Jadad scale revealed 60 high-quality randomized controlled trials on orthodontic practice, of which 45 (75%) were published in these four journals. PubMed is a highly desirable search engine for evidence-based orthodontic practice. To stay current and get high-quality evidence, it is reasonable to look through four orthodontic journals: American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, The Angle Orthodontist, the European Journal of Orthodontics, and the Journal of Orthodontics.

An automatic method to generate domain-specific investigator networks using PubMed abstracts.

PubMed

Yu, Wei; Yesupriya, Ajay; Wulf, Anja; Qu, Junfeng; Gwinn, Marta; Khoury, Muin J

2007-06-20

Collaboration among investigators has become critical to scientific research. This includes ad hoc collaboration established through personal contacts as well as formal consortia established by funding agencies. Continued growth in online resources for scientific research and communication has promoted the development of highly networked research communities. Extending these networks globally requires identifying additional investigators in a given domain, profiling their research interests, and collecting current contact information. We present a novel strategy for building investigator networks dynamically and producing detailed investigator profiles using data available in PubMed abstracts. We developed a novel strategy to obtain detailed investigator information by automatically parsing the affiliation string in PubMed records. We illustrated the results by using a published literature database in human genome epidemiology (HuGE Pub Lit) as a test case. Our parsing strategy extracted country information from 92.1% of the affiliation strings in a random sample of PubMed records and in 97.0% of HuGE records, with accuracies of 94.0% and 91.0%, respectively. Institution information was parsed from 91.3% of the general PubMed records (accuracy 86.8%) and from 94.2% of HuGE PubMed records (accuracy 87.0). We demonstrated the application of our approach to dynamic creation of investigator networks by creating a prototype information system containing a large database of PubMed abstracts relevant to human genome epidemiology (HuGE Pub Lit), indexed using PubMed medical subject headings converted to Unified Medical Language System concepts. Our method was able to identify 70-90% of the investigators/collaborators in three different human genetics fields; it also successfully identified 9 of 10 genetics investigators within the PREBIC network, an existing preterm birth research network. We successfully created a web-based prototype capable of creating domain-specific investigator networks based on an application that accurately generates detailed investigator profiles from PubMed abstracts combined with robust standard vocabularies. This approach could be used for other biomedical fields to efficiently establish domain-specific investigator networks.

A study on PubMed search tag usage pattern: association rule mining of a full-day PubMed query log.

PubMed

Mosa, Abu Saleh Mohammad; Yoo, Illhoi

2013-01-09

The practice of evidence-based medicine requires efficient biomedical literature search such as PubMed/MEDLINE. Retrieval performance relies highly on the efficient use of search field tags. The purpose of this study was to analyze PubMed log data in order to understand the usage pattern of search tags by the end user in PubMed/MEDLINE search. A PubMed query log file was obtained from the National Library of Medicine containing anonymous user identification, timestamp, and query text. Inconsistent records were removed from the dataset and the search tags were extracted from the query texts. A total of 2,917,159 queries were selected for this study issued by a total of 613,061 users. The analysis of frequent co-occurrences and usage patterns of the search tags was conducted using an association mining algorithm. The percentage of search tag usage was low (11.38% of the total queries) and only 2.95% of queries contained two or more tags. Three out of four users used no search tag and about two-third of them issued less than four queries. Among the queries containing at least one tagged search term, the average number of search tags was almost half of the number of total search terms. Navigational search tags are more frequently used than informational search tags. While no strong association was observed between informational and navigational tags, six (out of 19) informational tags and six (out of 29) navigational tags showed strong associations in PubMed searches. The low percentage of search tag usage implies that PubMed/MEDLINE users do not utilize the features of PubMed/MEDLINE widely or they are not aware of such features or solely depend on the high recall focused query translation by the PubMed's Automatic Term Mapping. The users need further education and interactive search application for effective use of the search tags in order to fulfill their biomedical information needs from PubMed/MEDLINE.

An automatic method to generate domain-specific investigator networks using PubMed abstracts

PubMed Central

Yu, Wei; Yesupriya, Ajay; Wulf, Anja; Qu, Junfeng; Gwinn, Marta; Khoury, Muin J

2007-01-01

Background Collaboration among investigators has become critical to scientific research. This includes ad hoc collaboration established through personal contacts as well as formal consortia established by funding agencies. Continued growth in online resources for scientific research and communication has promoted the development of highly networked research communities. Extending these networks globally requires identifying additional investigators in a given domain, profiling their research interests, and collecting current contact information. We present a novel strategy for building investigator networks dynamically and producing detailed investigator profiles using data available in PubMed abstracts. Results We developed a novel strategy to obtain detailed investigator information by automatically parsing the affiliation string in PubMed records. We illustrated the results by using a published literature database in human genome epidemiology (HuGE Pub Lit) as a test case. Our parsing strategy extracted country information from 92.1% of the affiliation strings in a random sample of PubMed records and in 97.0% of HuGE records, with accuracies of 94.0% and 91.0%, respectively. Institution information was parsed from 91.3% of the general PubMed records (accuracy 86.8%) and from 94.2% of HuGE PubMed records (accuracy 87.0). We demonstrated the application of our approach to dynamic creation of investigator networks by creating a prototype information system containing a large database of PubMed abstracts relevant to human genome epidemiology (HuGE Pub Lit), indexed using PubMed medical subject headings converted to Unified Medical Language System concepts. Our method was able to identify 70–90% of the investigators/collaborators in three different human genetics fields; it also successfully identified 9 of 10 genetics investigators within the PREBIC network, an existing preterm birth research network. Conclusion We successfully created a web-based prototype capable of creating domain-specific investigator networks based on an application that accurately generates detailed investigator profiles from PubMed abstracts combined with robust standard vocabularies. This approach could be used for other biomedical fields to efficiently establish domain-specific investigator networks. PMID:17584920

Net Improvement of Correct Answers to Therapy Questions After PubMed Searches: Pre/Post Comparison

PubMed Central

Keepanasseril, Arun

2013-01-01

Background Clinicians search PubMed for answers to clinical questions although it is time consuming and not always successful. Objective To determine if PubMed used with its Clinical Queries feature to filter results based on study quality would improve search success (more correct answers to clinical questions related to therapy). Methods We invited 528 primary care physicians to participate, 143 (27.1%) consented, and 111 (21.0% of the total and 77.6% of those who consented) completed the study. Participants answered 14 yes/no therapy questions and were given 4 of these (2 originally answered correctly and 2 originally answered incorrectly) to search using either the PubMed main screen or PubMed Clinical Queries narrow therapy filter via a purpose-built system with identical search screens. Participants also picked 3 of the first 20 retrieved citations that best addressed each question. They were then asked to re-answer the original 14 questions. Results We found no statistically significant differences in the rates of correct or incorrect answers using the PubMed main screen or PubMed Clinical Queries. The rate of correct answers increased from 50.0% to 61.4% (95% CI 55.0%-67.8%) for the PubMed main screen searches and from 50.0% to 59.1% (95% CI 52.6%-65.6%) for Clinical Queries searches. These net absolute increases of 11.4% and 9.1%, respectively, included previously correct answers changing to incorrect at a rate of 9.5% (95% CI 5.6%-13.4%) for PubMed main screen searches and 9.1% (95% CI 5.3%-12.9%) for Clinical Queries searches, combined with increases in the rate of being correct of 20.5% (95% CI 15.2%-25.8%) for PubMed main screen searches and 17.7% (95% CI 12.7%-22.7%) for Clinical Queries searches. Conclusions PubMed can assist clinicians answering clinical questions with an approximately 10% absolute rate of improvement in correct answers. This small increase includes more correct answers partially offset by a decrease in previously correct answers. PMID:24217329

Time-dependent migration of citations through PubMed and OvidSP subsets: a study on a series of simultaneous PubMed and OvidSP searches.

PubMed

Boeker, Martin; Vach, Werner; Motschall, Edith

2013-01-01

To quantitatively describe (1) differences between search results derived at consecutive time points with the PubMed and OvidSP literature search interfaces over a five day interval, and (2) the migration of citations through different subsets to estimate the timeliness of OvidSP. PubMed-Identifiers (PMIDs) of the following subsets were retrieved from PubMed and OvidSP simultaneously (within 8 h) at 11 days in March and April 2010 including 5 consecutive days: as supplied by publisher, in process, PubMed not MEDLINE, and OLDMEDLINE. Search results were compared for difference and intersection sets. The migration of citations on individual level was determined by comparison of corresponding sets over several days. The "in process" set was stable with about 446,000 - 452,000 citations; a small fraction of up to 3 % of the total subsets were in PubMed only and OvidSP only subsets. About 96 % of the ca. 10,500 citations in the OvidSP only subset migrated within 2 days out of the "in process" subset. The database of OvidSP is updated within a period of two days.

Genetics Home Reference: X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy

MedlinePlus

... Orphanet J Rare Dis. 2012 Aug 13;7:51. doi: 10.1186/1750-1172-7-51. Citation on PubMed or Free article on PubMed ... Clin Pract Neurol. 2007 Mar;3(3):140-51. Review. Citation on PubMed Moser HW, Raymond GV, ...

78 FR 42486 - Notice of New Recreation Fees; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-16

... New Recreation Fees; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447) AGENCY... Enhancement Act (Title VII, Pub. L. 108-447) directed the Secretary of Agriculture to publish a six month...

25 CFR 1000.84 - Does a Tribe/Consortium have the right to include provisions of Title I of Pub. L. 93-638 in an AFA?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Does a Tribe/Consortium have the right to include.../Consortium have the right to include provisions of Title I of Pub. L. 93-638 in an AFA? Yes, under Pub. L. 104-109, a Tribe/Consortium has the right to include any provision of Title I of Pub. L. 93-638 in an...

CaPUB1, a Hot Pepper U-box E3 Ubiquitin Ligase, Confers Enhanced Cold Stress Tolerance and Decreased Drought Stress Tolerance in Transgenic Rice (Oryza sativa L.).

PubMed

Min, Hye Jo; Jung, Ye Jin; Kang, Bin Goo; Kim, Woo Taek

2016-03-01

Abiotic stresses such as drought and low temperature critically restrict plant growth, reproduction, and productivity. Higher plants have developed various defense strategies against these unfavorable conditions. CaPUB1 (Capsicum annuum Putative U-box protein 1) is a hot pepper U-box E3 Ub ligase. Transgenic Arabidopsis plants that constitutively expressed CaPUB1 exhibited drought-sensitive phenotypes, suggesting that it functions as a negative regulator of the drought stress response. In this study, CaPUB1 was over-expressed in rice (Oryza sativa L.), and the phenotypic properties of transgenic rice plants were examined in terms of their drought and cold stress tolerance. Ubi:CaPUB1 T3 transgenic rice plants displayed phenotypes hypersensitive to dehydration, suggesting that its role in the negative regulation of drought stress response is conserved in dicot Arabidopsis and monocot rice plants. In contrast, Ubi:CaPUB1 progeny exhibited phenotypes markedly tolerant to prolonged low temperature (4°C) treatment, compared to those of wild-type plants, as determined by survival rates, electrolyte leakage, and total chlorophyll content. Cold stress-induced marker genes, including DREB1A, DREB1B, DREB1C, and Cytochrome P450, were more up-regulated by cold treatment in Ubi:CaPUB1 plants than in wild-type plants. These results suggest that CaPUB1 serves as both a negative regulator of the drought stress response and a positive regulator of the cold stress response in transgenic rice plants. This raises the possibility that CaPUB1 participates in the cross-talk between drought and low-temperature signaling pathways.

Technical development of PubMed Interact: an improved interface for MEDLINE/PubMed searches

PubMed Central

Muin, Michael; Fontelo, Paul

2006-01-01

Background The project aims to create an alternative search interface for MEDLINE/PubMed that may provide assistance to the novice user and added convenience to the advanced user. An earlier version of the project was the 'Slider Interface for MEDLINE/PubMed searches' (SLIM) which provided JavaScript slider bars to control search parameters. In this new version, recent developments in Web-based technologies were implemented. These changes may prove to be even more valuable in enhancing user interactivity through client-side manipulation and management of results. Results PubMed Interact is a Web-based MEDLINE/PubMed search application built with HTML, JavaScript and PHP. It is implemented on a Windows Server 2003 with Apache 2.0.52, PHP 4.4.1 and MySQL 4.1.18. PHP scripts provide the backend engine that connects with E-Utilities and parses XML files. JavaScript manages client-side functionalities and converts Web pages into interactive platforms using dynamic HTML (DHTML), Document Object Model (DOM) tree manipulation and Ajax methods. With PubMed Interact, users can limit searches with JavaScript slider bars, preview result counts, delete citations from the list, display and add related articles and create relevance lists. Many interactive features occur at client-side, which allow instant feedback without reloading or refreshing the page resulting in a more efficient user experience. Conclusion PubMed Interact is a highly interactive Web-based search application for MEDLINE/PubMed that explores recent trends in Web technologies like DOM tree manipulation and Ajax. It may become a valuable technical development for online medical search applications. PMID:17083729

75 FR 1333 - Notice of New Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-11

... New Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447) AGENCY: Forest... Recreation Enhancement Act (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447) directed the Secretary of Agriculture to publish a...

Different effects of enhanced and reduced expression of pub gene on the formation of embryoid bodies by cultured embryonic mouse stem cell.

PubMed

Novosadova, E V; Manuilova, E S; Arsen'eva, E L; Khaidarova, N V; Dolotov, O V; Inozemtseva, L S; Kozachenkov, K Yu; Tarantul, V Z; Grivennikov, I A

2005-07-01

The effects of pub gene on proliferation and initial stages of differentiation of embryonic mouse stem cells were studied in vitro. To this end we used enhanced expression of human pub gene (hpub) and suppression of expression of mouse endogenous pub gene with RNA-interference in embryonic stem cells. Proliferative activity of genetically modified polyclonal lines of the embryonic stem cells transfected with plasmids carrying expressing hpub gene or plasmids generating small interference RNA to this gene did not differ from that of the control cells. Inhibition of expression of endogenous pub gene in embryonic stem cells using small interference RNA 2-fold decreased the formation of embryoid bodies, at the same time additional expression of exogenous hpub gene almost 2-fold increased their number in comparison with the control. It was hypothesized that pub gene participates in early stages of differentiation of embryonic stem cells leading to the formation of embryoid bodies.

Discrepancies among Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed coverage of funding information in medical journal articles.

PubMed

Kokol, Peter; Vošner, Helena Blažun

2018-01-01

The overall aim of the present study was to compare the coverage of existing research funding information for articles indexed in Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases. The numbers of articles with funding information published in 2015 were identified in the three selected databases and compared using bibliometric analysis of a sample of twenty-eight prestigious medical journals. Frequency analysis of the number of articles with funding information showed statistically significant differences between Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases. The largest proportion of articles with funding information was found in Web of Science (29.0%), followed by PubMed (14.6%) and Scopus (7.7%). The results show that coverage of funding information differs significantly among Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases in a sample of the same medical journals. Moreover, we found that, currently, funding data in PubMed is more difficult to obtain and analyze compared with that in the other two databases.

Do smoke-free laws affect revenues in pubs and restaurants?

PubMed

Melberg, Hans Olav; Lund, Karl E

2012-02-01

In the debate about laws regulating smoking in restaurants and pubs, there has been some controversy as to whether smoke-free laws would reduce revenues in the hospitality industry. Norway presents an interesting case for three reasons. First, it was among the first countries to implement smoke-free laws, so it is possible to assess the long-term effects. Second, it has a cold climate so if there is a negative effect on revenue one would expect to find it in Norway. Third, the data from Norway are detailed enough to distinguish between revenue from pubs and restaurants. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention analysis of bi-monthly observations of revenues in restaurants and pubs show that the law did not have a statistically significant long-term effect on revenue in restaurants or on restaurant revenue as a share of personal consumption. Similar analysis for pubs shows that there was no significant long-run effect on pub revenue.

A deformation of Sasakian structure in the presence of torsion and supergravity solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houri, Tsuyoshi; Takeuchi, Hiroshi; Yasui, Yukinori

2013-07-01

A deformation of Sasakian structure in the presence of totally skew-symmetric torsion is discussed on odd-dimensional manifolds whose metric cones are Kähler with torsion. It is shown that such a geometry inherits similar properties to those of Sasakian geometry. As their example, we present an explicit expression of local metrics. It is also demonstrated that our example of the metrics admits the existence of hidden symmetry described by non-trivial odd-rank generalized closed conformal Killing-Yano tensors. Furthermore, using these metrics as an ansatz, we construct exact solutions in five-dimensional minimal gauged/ungauged supergravity and 11-dimensional supergravity. Finally, the global structures of the solutions are discussed. We obtain regular metrics on compact manifolds in five dimensions, which give natural generalizations of Sasaki-Einstein manifolds Yp, q and La, b, c. We also briefly discuss regular metrics on non-compact manifolds in 11 dimensions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aliev, Alikram N., E-mail: alikram.n.aliev@gmail.com

We examine the black hole bomb model which consists of a rotating black hole of five-dimenensional minimal ungauged supergravity and a reflecting mirror around it. For low-frequency scalar perturbations, we find solutions to the Klein-Gordon equation in the near-horizon and far regions of the black hole spacetime. To avoid solutions with logarithmic terms, we assume that the orbital quantum number l takes on nearly, but not exactly, integer values and perform the matching of these solutions in an intermediate region. This allows us to calculate analytically the frequency spectrum of quasinormal modes, taking the limits as l approaches even ormore » odd integers separately. We find that all l modes of scalar perturbations undergo negative damping in the regime of superradiance, resulting in exponential growth of their amplitudes. Thus, the model under consideration would exhibit the superradiant instability, eventually behaving as a black hole bomb in five dimensions.« less

SIMULATION OF FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR GEORGIA STREAMS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, E.J.; Armbruster, J.T.

1986-01-01

Flood hydrographs are needed for the design of many highway drainage structures and embankments. A method for simulating these flood hydrographs at urban and rural ungauged sites in Georgia is presented. The O'Donnell method was used to compute unit hydrographs from 355 flood events from 80 stations. An average unit hydrograph and an average lag time were computed for each station. These average unit hydrographs were transformed to unit hydrographs having durations of one-fourth, one-third, one-half, and three-fourths lag time and then reduced to dimensionless terms by dividing the time by lag time and the discharge by peak discharge. Hydrographs were simulated for these 355 flood events and their widths were compared with the widths of the observed hydrographs at 50 and 75 percent of peak flow. For simulating hydrographs at sites larger than 500 mi**2, the U. S. Geological Survey computer model CONROUT can be used.

M-theory superstrata and the MSW string

DOE PAGES

Bena, Iosif; Martinec, Emil; Turton, David; ...

2017-06-26

The low-energy description of wrapped M5 branes in compactifications of M-theory on a Calabi-Yau threefold times a circle is given by a conformal field theory studied by Maldacena, Strominger and Witten and known as the MSW CFT. Taking the threefold to be T 6 or K3×T 2, we construct a map between a sub-sector of this CFT and a sub-sector of the D1-D5 CFT. We demonstrate this map by considering a set of D1-D5 CFT states that have smooth horizonless bulk duals, and explicitly constructing the supergravity solutions dual to the corresponding states of the MSW CFT. We thus obtainmore » the largest known class of solutions dual to MSW CFT microstates, and demonstrate that five-dimensional ungauged supergravity admits much larger families of smooth horizonless solutions than previously known.« less

Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

2013-01-01

The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

A relook at NEH-4 curve number data and antecedent moisture condition criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

2006-08-01

This paper investigates the variation of the popular curve number (CN) values given in the National Engineering Hand Book-Section 4 (NEH-4) of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) with antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and soil type. Using the volumetric concept, involving soil, water, and air, a significant condensation of the NEH-4 tables is achieved. This leads to a procedure for determination of CN for gauged as well as ungauged watersheds. The rainfall-runoff events derived from daily data of four Indian watersheds exhibited a power relation between the potential maximum retention or CN and the 5-day antecedent rainfall amount. Including this power relation, the SCS-CN method was modified. This modification also eliminates the problem of sudden jumps from one AMC level to the other. The runoff values predicted using the modified method and the existing method utilizing the NEH-4 AMC criteria yielded similar results.

The efficiency of average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling in identifying homogeneous precipitation catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuan, Zun Liang; Ismail, Noriszura; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Lit Ken, Tan; Fam, Soo-Fen; Senawi, Azlyna; Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan

2018-04-01

Due to the limited of historical precipitation records, agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms widely used to extrapolate information from gauged to ungauged precipitation catchments in yielding a more reliable projection of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as extreme precipitation events. However, identifying the optimum number of homogeneous precipitation catchments accurately based on the dendrogram resulted using agglomerative hierarchical algorithms are very subjective. The main objective of this study is to propose an efficient regionalized algorithm to identify the homogeneous precipitation catchments for non-stationary precipitation time series. The homogeneous precipitation catchments are identified using average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling, while uncentered correlation coefficient as the similarity measure. The regionalized homogeneous precipitation is consolidated using K-sample Anderson Darling non-parametric test. The analysis result shows the proposed regionalized algorithm performed more better compared to the proposed agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm in previous studies.

40 CFR 25.1 - Introduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... RESOURCE CONSERVATION AND RECOVERY ACT, THE SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT, AND THE CLEAN WATER ACT § 25.1... in activities under the Clean Water Act (Pub. L. 95-217), the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (Pub. L. 94-580), and the Safe Drinking Water Act (Pub. L. 93-523). The applicability of the...

44 CFR 9.3 - Authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.3 Authority. The authority for these... Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (Pub. L. 90-488); the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended (Pub. L. 93-234); and the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Pub. L. 91-190...

44 CFR 9.3 - Authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.3 Authority. The authority for these... Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (Pub. L. 90-488); the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended (Pub. L. 93-234); and the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Pub. L. 91-190...

44 CFR 9.3 - Authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.3 Authority. The authority for these... Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (Pub. L. 90-488); the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended (Pub. L. 93-234); and the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Pub. L. 91-190...

44 CFR 9.3 - Authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.3 Authority. The authority for these... Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (Pub. L. 90-488); the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended (Pub. L. 93-234); and the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Pub. L. 91-190...

44 CFR 9.3 - Authority.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.3 Authority. The authority for these... Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended (Pub. L. 90-488); the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, as amended (Pub. L. 93-234); and the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Pub. L. 91-190...

75 FR 39273 - Energy Independence and Security Act (Pub. L. 110-140)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-08

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U.S. Geological Survey Energy Independence and Security Act (Pub. L... Resource Assessment Methodology. SUMMARY: In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Pub. L. 110... provide important information to evaluate the potential for CO 2 storage as a mitigation option for global...

Chemotherapeutic Targeting of Fibulin-5 to Suppress Breast Cancer Invasion and Metastasis Stimulated by Transforming Growth Factor-Beta

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-22

Res. Commun 2004;316:997–1001. [PubMed: 15044083] 178. Karin M. NF-κB in cancer development and progression. Nature 2006;441:431. [PubMed: 16724054...of TWIST gene expression. Cancer Res 2007;67:9066–9076. [PubMed: 17909010] 199. Ali S, Coombes RC. Endocrine-responsive breast cancer and strategies...for combating resistance. Nat. Rev. Cancer 2002;2:101–112. [PubMed: 12635173] 200. Coombes RC, Gibson L, Hall E, Emson M, Bliss J. Aromatase

PubNet: a flexible system for visualizing literature derived networks

PubMed Central

Douglas, Shawn M; Montelione, Gaetano T; Gerstein, Mark

2005-01-01

We have developed PubNet, a web-based tool that extracts several types of relationships returned by PubMed queries and maps them into networks, allowing for graphical visualization, textual navigation, and topological analysis. PubNet supports the creation of complex networks derived from the contents of individual citations, such as genes, proteins, Protein Data Bank (PDB) IDs, Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms, and authors. This feature allows one to, for example, examine a literature derived network of genes based on functional similarity. PMID:16168087

Wheat TaPUB1 modulates plant drought stress resistance by improving antioxidant capability.

PubMed

Zhang, Guangqiang; Zhang, Meng; Zhao, Zhongxian; Ren, Yuanqing; Li, Qinxue; Wang, Wei

2017-08-08

E3 ligases play significant roles in plant stress tolerance by targeting specific substrate proteins for post-translational modification. In a previous study, we cloned TaPUB1 from Triticum aestivum L., which encodes a U-box E3 ligase. Real-time polymerase chain reaction revealed that the gene was up-regulated under drought stress. To investigate the function of TaPUB1 in the response of plants to drought, we generated transgenic Nicotiana benthamiana (N. benthamiana) plants constitutively expressing TaPUB1 under the CaMV35S promoter. Compared to wild type (WT), the transgenic plants had higher germination and seedling survival rates as well as higher photosynthetic rate and water retention, suggesting that the overexpression of TaPUB1 enhanced the drought tolerance of the TaPUB1 overexpressing (OE) plants. Moreover, less accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and stronger antioxidant capacity were detected in the OE plants than in the WT plants. To characterize the mechanisms involved, methyl viologen (MV) was used to induce oxidative stress conditions and we identified the functions of this gene in the plant tolerance to oxidative stress. Our results suggest that TaPUB1 positively modulates plant drought stress resistance potential by improving their antioxidant capacity.

Net improvement of correct answers to therapy questions after pubmed searches: pre/post comparison.

PubMed

McKibbon, Kathleen Ann; Lokker, Cynthia; Keepanasseril, Arun; Wilczynski, Nancy L; Haynes, R Brian

2013-11-08

Clinicians search PubMed for answers to clinical questions although it is time consuming and not always successful. To determine if PubMed used with its Clinical Queries feature to filter results based on study quality would improve search success (more correct answers to clinical questions related to therapy). We invited 528 primary care physicians to participate, 143 (27.1%) consented, and 111 (21.0% of the total and 77.6% of those who consented) completed the study. Participants answered 14 yes/no therapy questions and were given 4 of these (2 originally answered correctly and 2 originally answered incorrectly) to search using either the PubMed main screen or PubMed Clinical Queries narrow therapy filter via a purpose-built system with identical search screens. Participants also picked 3 of the first 20 retrieved citations that best addressed each question. They were then asked to re-answer the original 14 questions. We found no statistically significant differences in the rates of correct or incorrect answers using the PubMed main screen or PubMed Clinical Queries. The rate of correct answers increased from 50.0% to 61.4% (95% CI 55.0%-67.8%) for the PubMed main screen searches and from 50.0% to 59.1% (95% CI 52.6%-65.6%) for Clinical Queries searches. These net absolute increases of 11.4% and 9.1%, respectively, included previously correct answers changing to incorrect at a rate of 9.5% (95% CI 5.6%-13.4%) for PubMed main screen searches and 9.1% (95% CI 5.3%-12.9%) for Clinical Queries searches, combined with increases in the rate of being correct of 20.5% (95% CI 15.2%-25.8%) for PubMed main screen searches and 17.7% (95% CI 12.7%-22.7%) for Clinical Queries searches. PubMed can assist clinicians answering clinical questions with an approximately 10% absolute rate of improvement in correct answers. This small increase includes more correct answers partially offset by a decrease in previously correct answers.

Improving accuracy for identifying related PubMed queries by an integrated approach.

PubMed

Lu, Zhiyong; Wilbur, W John

2009-10-01

PubMed is the most widely used tool for searching biomedical literature online. As with many other online search tools, a user often types a series of multiple related queries before retrieving satisfactory results to fulfill a single information need. Meanwhile, it is also a common phenomenon to see a user type queries on unrelated topics in a single session. In order to study PubMed users' search strategies, it is necessary to be able to automatically separate unrelated queries and group together related queries. Here, we report a novel approach combining both lexical and contextual analyses for segmenting PubMed query sessions and identifying related queries and compare its performance with the previous approach based solely on concept mapping. We experimented with our integrated approach on sample data consisting of 1539 pairs of consecutive user queries in 351 user sessions. The prediction results of 1396 pairs agreed with the gold-standard annotations, achieving an overall accuracy of 90.7%. This demonstrates that our approach is significantly better than the previously published method. By applying this approach to a one day query log of PubMed, we found that a significant proportion of information needs involved more than one PubMed query, and that most of the consecutive queries for the same information need are lexically related. Finally, the proposed PubMed distance is shown to be an accurate and meaningful measure for determining the contextual similarity between biological terms. The integrated approach can play a critical role in handling real-world PubMed query log data as is demonstrated in our experiments.

Comparison of PubMed and Google Scholar literature searches.

PubMed

Anders, Michael E; Evans, Dennis P

2010-05-01

Literature searches are essential to evidence-based respiratory care. To conduct literature searches, respiratory therapists rely on search engines to retrieve information, but there is a dearth of literature on the comparative efficiencies of search engines for researching clinical questions in respiratory care. To compare PubMed and Google Scholar search results for clinical topics in respiratory care to that of a benchmark. We performed literature searches with PubMed and Google Scholar, on 3 clinical topics. In PubMed we used the Clinical Queries search filter. In Google Scholar we used the search filters in the Advanced Scholar Search option. We used the reference list of a related Cochrane Collaboration evidence-based systematic review as the benchmark for each of the search results. We calculated recall (sensitivity) and precision (positive predictive value) with 2 x 2 contingency tables. We compared the results with the chi-square test of independence and Fisher's exact test. PubMed and Google Scholar had similar recall for both overall search results (71% vs 69%) and full-text results (43% vs 51%). PubMed had better precision than Google Scholar for both overall search results (13% vs 0.07%, P < .001) and full-text results (8% vs 0.05%, P < .001). Our results suggest that PubMed searches with the Clinical Queries filter are more precise than with the Advanced Scholar Search in Google Scholar for respiratory care topics. PubMed appears to be more practical to conduct efficient, valid searches for informing evidence-based patient-care protocols, for guiding the care of individual patients, and for educational purposes.

Improving accuracy for identifying related PubMed queries by an integrated approach

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhiyong; Wilbur, W. John

2009-01-01

PubMed is the most widely used tool for searching biomedical literature online. As with many other online search tools, a user often types a series of multiple related queries before retrieving satisfactory results to fulfill a single information need. Meanwhile, it is also a common phenomenon to see a user type queries on unrelated topics in a single session. In order to study PubMed users’ search strategies, it is necessary to be able to automatically separate unrelated queries and group together related queries. Here, we report a novel approach combining both lexical and contextual analyses for segmenting PubMed query sessions and identifying related queries and compare its performance with the previous approach based solely on concept mapping. We experimented with our integrated approach on sample data consisting of 1,539 pairs of consecutive user queries in 351 user sessions. The prediction results of 1,396 pairs agreed with the gold-standard annotations, achieving an overall accuracy of 90.7%. This demonstrates that our approach is significantly better than the previously published method. By applying this approach to a one day query log of PubMed, we found that a significant proportion of information needs involved more than one PubMed query, and that most of the consecutive queries for the same information need are lexically related. Finally, the proposed PubMed distance is shown to be an accurate and meaningful measure for determining the contextual similarity between biological terms. The integrated approach can play a critical role in handling real-world PubMed query log data as is demonstrated in our experiments. PMID:19162232

25 CFR 32.5 - Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. 32.5... POLICIES § 32.5 Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. The Director, Office Indian Education Programs will develop guidelines for evaluating all functional and programmatic responsibilities associated...

25 CFR 32.5 - Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. 32.5... POLICIES § 32.5 Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. The Director, Office Indian Education Programs will develop guidelines for evaluating all functional and programmatic responsibilities associated...

25 CFR 32.5 - Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. 32.5... POLICIES § 32.5 Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. The Director, Office Indian Education Programs will develop guidelines for evaluating all functional and programmatic responsibilities associated...

25 CFR 32.5 - Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. 32.5... POLICIES § 32.5 Evaluation of implementation of Pub. L. 95-561. The Director, Office Indian Education Programs will develop guidelines for evaluating all functional and programmatic responsibilities associated...

48 CFR 25.700 - Scope of subpart.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Accountability and Divestment Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-174) (50 U.S.C. 1701 note); (c) The Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Iran Sanctions Act) (Pub. L. 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note), including amendments by the Iran Freedom Support Act (Pub. L. 109-293), section 102 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability...

48 CFR 25.700 - Scope of subpart.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Accountability and Divestment Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-174); (c) The Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Iran Sanctions Act) (Pub. L. 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note), including amendments by the Iran Freedom Support Act (Pub. L. 109-293), section 102 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of...

48 CFR 25.700 - Scope of subpart.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Accountability and Divestment Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-174); (c) The Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Iran Sanctions Act) (Pub. L. 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note), including amendments by the Iran Freedom Support Act (Pub. L. 109-293) and section 102 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act...

48 CFR 25.700 - Scope of subpart.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Accountability and Divestment Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-174); (c) The Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Iran Sanctions Act) (Pub. L. 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note), including amendments by the Iran Freedom Support Act (Pub. L. 109-293) and section 102 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act...

48 CFR 25.700 - Scope of subpart.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Accountability and Divestment Act of 2007 (Pub. L. 110-174); (c) The Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Iran Sanctions Act) (Pub. L. 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note), including amendments by the Iran Freedom Support Act (Pub. L. 109-293) and section 102 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act...

OH REACTION KINETICS OF GAS-PHASE A- AND G-HEXACHLOROCYCLOHEXANE AND HEXACHLOROBENZENE. (R825377)

EPA Science Inventory

Rate constants for the gas-phase reactions of the hydroxyl
radical (OH) with - and -hexachlorocyclohexane (-
and 77 FR 42696 - Notice of New Fee Sites; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-20

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Notice of New Fee Sites; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII, Pub. L. 108-447) AGENCY: Kootenai National Forest, Forest Service, USDA. ACTION... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Federal Recreation Lands Enhancement Act (Title VII, Pub. L. 108-447) directed...

PubMed Phrases, an open set of coherent phrases for searching biomedical literature

PubMed Central

Kim, Sun; Yeganova, Lana; Comeau, Donald C.; Wilbur, W. John; Lu, Zhiyong

2018-01-01

In biomedicine, key concepts are often expressed by multiple words (e.g., ‘zinc finger protein’). Previous work has shown treating a sequence of words as a meaningful unit, where applicable, is not only important for human understanding but also beneficial for automatic information seeking. Here we present a collection of PubMed® Phrases that are beneficial for information retrieval and human comprehension. We define these phrases as coherent chunks that are logically connected. To collect the phrase set, we apply the hypergeometric test to detect segments of consecutive terms that are likely to appear together in PubMed. These text segments are then filtered using the BM25 ranking function to ensure that they are beneficial from an information retrieval perspective. Thus, we obtain a set of 705,915 PubMed Phrases. We evaluate the quality of the set by investigating PubMed user click data and manually annotating a sample of 500 randomly selected noun phrases. We also analyze and discuss the usage of these PubMed Phrases in literature search. PMID:29893755

PubFinder: a tool for improving retrieval rate of relevant PubMed abstracts.

PubMed

Goetz, Thomas; von der Lieth, Claus-Wilhelm

2005-07-01

Since it is becoming increasingly laborious to manually extract useful information embedded in the ever-growing volumes of literature, automated intelligent text analysis tools are becoming more and more essential to assist in this task. PubFinder (www.glycosciences.de/tools/PubFinder) is a publicly available web tool designed to improve the retrieval rate of scientific abstracts relevant for a specific scientific topic. Only the selection of a representative set of abstracts is required, which are central for a scientific topic. No special knowledge concerning the query-syntax is necessary. Based on the selected abstracts, a list of discriminating words is automatically calculated, which is subsequently used for scoring all defined PubMed abstracts for their probability of belonging to the defined scientific topic. This results in a hit-list of references in the descending order of their likelihood score. The algorithms and procedures implemented in PubFinder facilitate the perpetual task for every scientist of staying up-to-date with current publications dealing with a specific subject in biomedicine.

Synthesis and biological evaluation of novel N-phenyl ureidobenzenesulfonate derivatives as potential anticancer agents. Part 2. Modulation of the ring B.

PubMed

Gagné-Boulet, Mathieu; Moussa, Hanane; Lacroix, Jacques; Côté, Marie-France; Masson, Jean-Yves; Fortin, Sébastien

2015-10-20

DNA double strand-breaks (DSBs) are the most deleterious lesions that can affect the genome of living beings and are lethal if not quickly and properly repaired. Recently, we discovered a new family of anticancer agents designated as N-phenyl ureidobenzenesulfonates (PUB-SOs) that are blocking the cells cycle progression in S-phase and inducing DNA DSBs. Previously, we have studied the effect of several modifications on the molecular scaffold of PUB-SOs on their cytocidal properties. However, the effect of the nature and the position of substituents on the aromatic ring B is still poorly studied. In this study, we report the preparation and the biological evaluation of 45 new PUB-SO derivatives substituted by alkyl, alkoxy, halogen and nitro groups at different positions on the aromatic ring B. All PUB-SOs were active in the submicromolar to low micromolar range (0.24-20 μM). The cell cycle progression analysis showed that PUB-SOs substituted at position 2 by alkyl, halogen or nitro groups or substituted at position 4 by a hydroxyl group arrest the cell cycle progression in S-phase. Interestingly, all others PUB-SOs substituted at positions 3 and 4 arrested the cell cycle in G2/M-phase. PUB-SOs arresting the cell cycle progression in S-phase also induced the phosphorylation of H2AX (γH2AX) which is indicating the generation of DNA DSBs. We evidenced that few modifications on the ring B of PUB-SOs scaffold lead to cytocidal derivatives arresting the cell cycle in S-phase and inducing γH2AX and DSBs. In addition, this study shows that these new anticancer agents are promising and could be used as alternative to circumvent some of the biopharmaceutical complications that might be encountered during the development of PUB-SOs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.