Predicting in ungauged basins using a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Olav Peerebom, Ivar; Nilsson, Anna

2015-04-01

Prediction in ungauged basins is a demanding, but necessary test for hydrological model structures. Ideally, the relationship between model parameters and catchment characteristics (CC) should be hydrologically justifiable. Many studies, however, report on failure to obtain significant correlations between model parameters and CCs. Under the hypothesis that the lack of correlations stems from non-identifiability of model parameters caused by overparameterization, the relatively new parameter parsimonious DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model was tested for predictions in ungauged basins in Norway. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than, for example, the well-known Swedish HBV model. In this study, multiple regression equations relating CCs and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p- value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22-0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For 10 of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash-Suthcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1. The median NSE for the regionalised DDD for the 17 catchments, for two different time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt, respectively. This latter result indicates the topic for further improvements in the model structure of DDD.

Parameter sensitivity analysis of the mixed Green-Ampt/Curve-Number method for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, N.; Petroselli, A.; Grimaldi, S.

2012-04-01

With the aim of combining the practical advantages of the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model, we have developed a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt). The basic concept is that, for a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model so as to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method. In a previous contribution, the proposed mixed procedure was evaluated on 100 observed events showing encouraging results. In this study, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to further explore the feasibility of applying the CN4GA tool in small ungauged catchments. The proposed mixed procedure constrains the GA model with boundary and initial conditions so that the GA soil hydraulic parameters are expected to be insensitive toward the net hyetograph peak. To verify and evaluate this behaviour, synthetic design hyetograph and synthetic rainfall time series are selected and used in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results are encouraging and confirm that the parameter variability makes the proposed method an appropriate tool for hydrologic predictions in ungauged catchments. Keywords: SCS-CN method, Green-Ampt method, rainfall excess, ungauged basins, design hydrograph, rainfall-runoff modelling.

Identifying dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments: a comparative hydrology approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, R.; Archfield, S.A.; Wagener, T.

2014-01-01

Daily streamflow information is critical for solving various hydrologic problems, though observations of continuous streamflow for model calibration are available at only a small fraction of the world’s rivers. One approach to estimate daily streamflow at an ungauged location is to transfer rainfall–runoff model parameters calibrated at a gauged (donor) catchment to an ungauged (receiver) catchment of interest. Central to this approach is the selection of a hydrologically similar donor. No single metric or set of metrics of hydrologic similarity have been demonstrated to consistently select a suitable donor catchment. We design an experiment to diagnose the dominant controls on successful hydrologic model parameter transfer. We calibrate a lumped rainfall–runoff model to 83 stream gauges across the United States. All locations are USGS reference gauges with minimal human influence. Parameter sets from the calibrated models are then transferred to each of the other catchments and the performance of the transferred parameters is assessed. This transfer experiment is carried out both at the scale of the entire US and then for six geographic regions. We use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine the relationship between catchment similarity and performance of transferred parameters. Similarity is defined using physical/climatic catchment characteristics, as well as streamflow response characteristics (signatures such as baseflow index and runoff ratio). Across the entire US, successful parameter transfer is governed by similarity in elevation and climate, and high similarity in streamflow signatures. Controls vary for different geographic regions though. Geology followed by drainage, topography and climate constitute the dominant similarity metrics in forested eastern mountains and plateaus, whereas agricultural land use relates most strongly with successful parameter transfer in the humid plains.

Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment. Front. Earth Sci. 3:62. doi: 10.3389/feart.2015.00062

Evaluating the impact of lower resolutions of digital elevation model on rainfall-runoff modeling for ungauged catchments.

PubMed

Ghumman, Abul Razzaq; Al-Salamah, Ibrahim Saleh; AlSaleem, Saleem Saleh; Haider, Husnain

2017-02-01

Geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) usually uses geomorphologic parameters of catchment estimated from digital elevation model (DEM) for rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged watersheds with limited data. Higher resolutions (e.g., 5 or 10 m) of DEM play an important role in the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models; however, such resolutions are expansive to obtain and require much greater efforts and time for preparation of inputs. In this research, a modeling framework is developed to evaluate the impact of lower resolutions (i.e., 30 and 90 m) of DEM on the accuracy of Clark GIUH model. Observed rainfall-runoff data of a 202-km 2 catchment in a semiarid region was used to develop direct runoff hydrographs for nine rainfall events. Geographical information system was used to process both the DEMs. Model accuracy and errors were estimated by comparing the model results with the observed data. The study found (i) high model efficiencies greater than 90% for both the resolutions, and (ii) that the efficiency of Clark GIUH model does not significantly increase by enhancing the resolution of the DEM from 90 to 30 m. Thus, it is feasible to use lower resolutions (i.e., 90 m) of DEM in the estimation of peak runoff in ungauged catchments with relatively less efforts. Through sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations), the kinematic wave parameter and stream length ratio are found to be the most significant parameters in velocity and peak flow estimations, respectively; thus, they need to be carefully estimated for calculation of direct runoff in ungauged watersheds using Clark GIUH model.

Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

2017-12-01

We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Considering both the accuracy and the computational complexity of these algorithms, we identify the extremely randomized trees as the best performing algorithm for BFI prediction in ungauged basins.

Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or Limestone. The study is progressed based on the followings. Firstly, hydrological time series of each catchment are sampled and clustered into multi-period having distinctly different temporal characteristics, and secondly, behavioural parameter distributions are determined in each multi-period based on the specification of multi-criteria model performance measures. Finally, behavioural parameter sets of each multi-period of single catchment are applied on the corresponding period of other catchments, and the cross-validations are conducted in this manner for all catchments The multi-period model conditioning approach is clearly effective to reduce the width of prediction limits, giving better model performance against the temporal variability of hydrological characteristics, and has enough potential to be the effective prediction tool for ungauged catchments. However, more advanced and continuous studies are needed to expand the application of this approach in prediction of hydrological responses in ungauged catchments,

Hydrological regionalisation based on available hydrological information for runoff prediction at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Li, Zhijia; Zhu, Yuelong; Deng, Yuanqian; Zhang, Ke; Yao, Cheng

2018-06-01

Regionalisation provides a way of transferring hydrological information from gauged to ungauged catchments. The past few decades has seen several kinds of regionalisation approaches for catchment classification and runoff predictions. The underlying assumption is that catchments having similar catchment properties are hydrological similar. This requires the appropriate selection of catchment properties, particularly the inclusion of observed hydrological information, to explain the similarity of hydrological behaviour. We selected observable catchments properties and flow duration curves to reflect the hydrological behaviour, and to regionalize rainfall-runoff response for runoff prediction. As a case study, we investigated 15 catchments located in the Yangtze and Yellow River under multiple hydro-climatic conditions. A clustering scheme was developed to separate the catchments into 4 homogeneous regions by employing catchment properties including hydro-climatic attributes, topographic attributes and land cover etc. We utilized daily flow duration curves as the indicator of hydrological response and interpreted hydrological similarity by root mean square errors. The combined analysis of similarity in catchment properties and hydrological response suggested that catchments in the same homogenous region were hydrological similar. A further validation was conducted by establishing a rainfall-runoff coaxial correlation diagram for each catchment. A common coaxial correlation diagram was generated for each homogenous region. The performances of most coaxial correlation diagrams met the national standard. The coaxial correlation diagram can be transferred within the homogeneous region for runoff prediction in ungauged catchments at an hourly time scale.

Innovative use of soft data for the validation of a rainfall-runoff model forced by remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Mulder, Gert

2013-04-01

The Chamcar Bei catchment in southern Cambodia is a typical ungauged basin. Neither meteorological data or discharge measurements are available. In this catchment, local farmers are highly dependent on the irrigation system. However, due to the unreliability of the water supply, it was required to make a hydrological model, with which further improvements of the irrigation system could be planned. First, we used knowledge generated in the IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) to estimate the annual water balance of the Chamcar Bei catchment. Next, using remotely sensed precipitation, vegetation, elevation and transpiration data, a monthly rainfall-runoff model has been developed. The rainfall-runoff model was linked to the irrigation system reservoir, which allowed to validate the model based on soft data such as historical knowledge of the reservoir water level and groundwater levels visible in wells. This study shows that combining existing remote sensing data and soft ground data can lead to useful modeling results. The approach presented in this study can be applied in other ungauged basins, which can be extremely helpful in managing water resources in developing countries.

Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

2016-04-01

Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate low flow indices in ungauged sites. The analysis is carried out on 691 French catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological behaviors. The results are validated with a cross-validation procedure and are compared with the ones obtained with GR4J, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, which already provides daily estimations, but involves four parameters that cannot easily be regionalized.

A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chong; Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Chen, Zhongsheng

2018-04-01

To quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow in an ungauged mountainous basin is a difficult and challenging work. In this study, a hybrid model combing downscaling method based on earth data products, back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method was developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the hybrid model, the Kumarik River and Toshkan River, two headwaters of the Aksu River, were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow by using this hybrid model. The conclusion is that the hybrid model presented a good performance, and the quantitative assessment results for the two headwaters are: (1) the precipitation respectively increased by 48.5 and 41.0 mm in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment, and the average annual temperature both increased by 0.1 °C in the two catchments during each decade from 1980 to 2012; (2) with the warming and wetting climate, the streamflow respectively increased 1.5 × 108 and 3.3 × 108 m3 per decade in the Kumarik River and the Toshkan River; and (3) the contribution of the temperature and precipitation to the streamflow, which were 64.01 ± 7.34, 35.99 ± 7.34 and 47.72 ± 8.10, 52.26 ± 8.10%, respectively in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment. Our study introduced a feasible hybrid model for the assessment of the impact of climate variability on streamflow, which can be used in the ungauged mountainous basin of Northwest China.

Prediction of Hydrologic Characteristics for Ungauged Catchments to Support Hydroecological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Nick R.; Kennard, Mark J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic variability is a fundamental driver of ecological processes and species distribution patterns within river systems, yet the paucity of gauges in many catchments means that streamflow data are often unavailable for ecological survey sites. Filling this data gap is an important challenge in hydroecological research. To address this gap, we first test the ability to spatially extrapolate hydrologic metrics calculated from gauged streamflow data to ungauged sites as a function of stream distance and catchment area. Second, we examine the ability of statistical models to predict flow regime metrics based on climate and catchment physiographic variables. Our assessment focused on Australia's largest catchment, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). We found that hydrologic metrics were predictable only between sites within ˜25 km of one another. Beyond this, correlations between sites declined quickly. We found less than 40% of fish survey sites from a recent basin-wide monitoring program (n = 777 sites) to fall within this 25 km range, thereby greatly limiting the ability to utilize gauge data for direct spatial transposition of hydrologic metrics to biological survey sites. In contrast, statistical model-based transposition proved effective in predicting ecologically relevant aspects of the flow regime (including metrics describing central tendency, high- and low-flows intermittency, seasonality, and variability) across the entire gauge network (median R2 ˜ 0.54, range 0.39-0.94). Modeled hydrologic metrics thus offer a useful alternative to empirical data when examining biological survey data from ungauged sites. More widespread use of these statistical tools and modeled metrics could expand our understanding of flow-ecology relationships.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

A hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamim, M. A.; Bray, M.; Ishak, A. M.; Remesan, R.; Han, D.

2009-09-01

The importance of solar radiation on earth's surface is depicted in its wide range of applications in the fields of meteorology, agricultural sciences, engineering, hydrology, crop water requirements, climatic changes and energy assessment. It is quite random in nature as it has to go through different processes of assimilation and dispersion while on its way to earth. Compared to other meteorological parameters, solar radiation is quite infrequently measured, for example, the worldwide ratio of stations collecting solar radiation to those collecting temperature is 1:500 (Badescu, 2008). Researchers, therefore, have to rely on indirect techniques of estimation that include nonlinear models, artificial intelligence (e.g. neural networks), remote sensing and numerical weather predictions (NWP). This study proposes a hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments. It uses the PSU/NCAR's Mesoscale Modelling system (MM5) (Grell et al., 1995) to parameterise the cloud effect on extraterrestrial radiation by dividing the atmosphere into four layers of very high (6-12 km), high (3-6 km), medium (1.5-3) and low (0-1.5) altitudes from earth. It is believed that various cloud forms exist within each of these layers. An hourly time series of upper air pressure and relative humidity data sets corresponding to all of these layers is determined for the Brue catchment, southwest UK, using MM5. Cloud Index (CI) was then determined using (Yang and Koike, 2002): 1 p?bi [ (Rh - Rh )] ci =------- max 0.0,---------cri dp pbi - ptipti (1- Rhcri) where, pbi and pti represent the air pressure at the top and bottom of each layer and Rhcri is the critical value of relative humidity at which a certain cloud type is formed. Output from a global clear sky solar radiation model (MRM v-5) (Kambezidis and Psiloglu, 2008) is used along with meteorological datasets of temperature and precipitation and astronomical information. The analysis is aided by the Gamma Test (GT). GT is a newly developed algorithm (Koncar, 1997; Agalbjorn, et al.1997) that helps in estimating the best mean squared error (MSE), for a given combination of inputs when modelling an unseen data. The study also explores the ability of GT to determine the optimum data length and optimum number of nearest neighbours for nonlinear modelling of global solar radiation in un-gauged catchments. Artificial neural networks (ANN) and Local linear regression based nonlinear models have been used to test the proposed methodology and the results have shown a high degree of correlation between the observed and estimated solar radiation data. It is believed that this study will initiate further exploration of GT for improving informed data and model selection. References Badescu V., (2008), Modelling Solar radiation at the Earth's Surface, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Grell G. A., Dhudia J. and Stauffer D. R. (1995), A description of fifth generation Penn Stat/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). In NCAR/TN-398 + STR, NCAR Technical Note. Pp. 74-76. Yang K. and Koike T. (2002) Estimating surface solar radiation from upper air humidity. Solar Energy, Vol. 7, 2. pp. 177-186. Kambezidis H. D. and Psiloglou B. E. (2008), The Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM): Advancements and Applications in Modelling solar radiation on earth's surface, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Končar N., (1997), Optimization methodologies for direct inverse neurocontrol. PhD thesis, Department of Computing, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London. Agalbjörn S, Končar N, Jones A. J., (1997), A note on the gamm test, Neural Computing and Applications 5(1997) p-131

Parameter regionalisation methods for a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model: application to a Northern Apennine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, Mattia; Toth, Elena

2017-04-01

The study presents the implementation of different regionalisation approaches for the transfer of model parameters from similar and/or neighbouring gauged basin to an ungauged catchment, and in particular it uses a semi-distributed continuously-simulating conceptual rainfall-runoff model for simulating daily streamflows. The case study refers to a set of Apennine catchments (in the Emilia-Romagna region, Italy), that, given the spatial proximity, are assumed to belong to the same hydrologically homogeneous region and are used, alternatively, as donors and regionalised basins. The model is a semi-distributed version of the HBV model (TUWien model) in which the catchment is divided in zones of different altitude that contribute separately to the total outlet flow. The model includes a snow module, whose application in the Apennine area has been, so far, very limited, even if snow accumulation and melting phenomena do have an important role in the study basins. Two methods, both widely applied in the recent literature, are applied for regionalising the model: i) "parameters averaging", where each parameter is obtained as a weighted mean of the parameters obtained, through calibration, on the donor catchments ii) "output averaging", where the model is run over the ungauged basin using the entire set of parameters of each donor basin and the simulated outputs are then averaged. In the first approach, the parameters are regionalised independently from each other, in the second one, instead, the correlation among the parameters is maintained. Since the model is a semi-distributed one, where each elevation zone contributes separately, the study proposes to test also a modified version of the second approach ("output averaging"), where each zone is considered as an autonomous entity, whose parameters are transposed to the ungauged sub-basin corresponding to the same elevation zone. The study explores also the choice of the weights to be used for averaging the parameters (in the "parameters averaging" approach) or for averaging the simulated streamflow (in the "output averaging" approach): in particular, weights are estimated as a function of the similarity/distance of the ungauged basin/zone to the donors, on the basis of a set of geo-morphological catchment descriptors. The predictive accuracy of the different regionalisation methods is finally assessed by jack-knife cross-validation against the observed daily runoff for all the study catchments.

Dual assimilation of satellite soil moisture to improve flood prediction in ungauged catchments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper explores the use of active and passive satellite soil moisture products for improving stream flow prediction within 4 large (>5,000km2) semi-arid catchments. We use the probability distributed model (PDM) under a data-scarce scenario and aim at correcting two key controlling factors in th...

Catchment Classification: Connecting Climate, Structure and Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicz, K. A.; Wagener, T.; Sivapalan, M.; Troch, P. A.; Carrillo, G. A.

2010-12-01

Hydrology does not yet possess a generally accepted catchment classification framework. Such a classification framework needs to: [1] give names to things, i.e. the main classification step, [2] permit transfer of information, i.e. regionalization of information, [3] permit development of generalizations, i.e. to develop new theory, and [4] provide a first order environmental change impact assessment, i.e., the hydrologic implications of climate, land use and land cover change. One strategy is to create a catchment classification framework based on the notion of catchment functions (partitioning, storage, and release). Results of an empirical study presented here connects climate and structure to catchment function (in the form of select hydrologic signatures), based on analyzing over 300 US catchments. Initial results indicate a wide assortment of signature relationships with properties of climate, geology, and vegetation. The uncertainty in the different regionalized signatures varies widely, and therefore there is variability in the robustness of classifying ungauged basins. This research provides insight into the controls of hydrologic behavior of a catchment, and enables a classification framework applicable to gauged and ungauged across the study domain. This study sheds light on what we can expect to achieve in mapping climate, structure and function in a top-down manner. Results of this study complement work done using a bottom-up physically-based modeling framework to generalize this approach (Carrillo et al., this session).

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

Seasonal evaluation of evapotranspiration fluxes from MODIS satellite and mesoscale model downscaled global reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Han, Dawei; Islam, Tanvir; Petropoulos, George P.; Gupta, Manika; Dai, Qiang

2016-04-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in hydrological modeling, which is not always available, especially for ungauged catchments. Satellite data, such as those available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global datasets via the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis are important sources of information for ETo. This study explored the seasonal performances of MODIS (MOD16) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaled global reanalysis datasets, such as ERA interim and NCEP-derived ETo, against ground-based datasets. Overall, on the basis of the statistical metrics computed, ETo derived from ERA interim and MODIS were more accurate in comparison to the estimates from NCEP for all the seasons. The pooled datasets also revealed a similar performance to the seasonal assessment with higher agreement for the ERA interim (r = 0.96, RMSE = 2.76 mm/8 days; bias = 0.24 mm/8 days), followed by MODIS (r = 0.95, RMSE = 7.66 mm/8 days; bias = -7.17 mm/8 days) and NCEP (r = 0.76, RMSE = 11.81 mm/8 days; bias = -10.20 mm/8 days). The only limitation with downscaling ERA interim reanalysis datasets using WRF is that it is time-consuming in contrast to the readily available MODIS operational product for use in mesoscale studies and practical applications.

Is there a `universal' dynamic zero-parameter hydrological model? Evaluation of a dynamic Budyko model in US and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patnaik, S.; Biswal, B.; Sharma, V. C.

2017-12-01

River flow varies greatly in space and time, and the single biggest challenge for hydrologists and ecologists around the world is the fact that most rivers are either ungauged or poorly gauged. Although it is relatively easier to predict long-term average flow of a river using the `universal' zero-parameter Budyko model, lack of data hinders short-term flow prediction at ungauged locations using traditional hydrological models as they require observed flow data for model calibration. Flow prediction in ungauged basins thus requires a dynamic 'zero-parameter' hydrological model. One way to achieve this is to regionalize a dynamic hydrological model's parameters. However, a regionalization method based zero-parameter dynamic hydrological model is not `universal'. An alternative attempt was made recently to develop a zero-parameter dynamic model by defining an instantaneous dryness index as a function of antecedent rainfall and solar energy inputs with the help of a decay function and using the original Budyko function. The model was tested first in 63 US catchments and later in 50 Indian catchments. The median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was found to be close to 0.4 in both the cases. Although improvements need to be incorporated in order to use the model for reliable prediction, the main aim of this study was to rather understand hydrological processes. The overall results here seem to suggest that the dynamic zero-parameter Budyko model is `universal.' In other words natural catchments around the world are strikingly similar to each other in the way they respond to hydrologic inputs; we thus need to focus more on utilizing catchment similarities in hydrological modelling instead of over parameterizing our models.

Characterization of the regional variability of flood regimes within the Omo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yared, Adanech; Demissie, Solomon S.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Viglione, Alberto; MacAlister, Charlotte

2014-05-01

Hydrological variability and seasonality is one of the Ethiopia's primary water resource management challenges. Variability is most obviously manifest in endemic, devastating droughts and floods. While the level of flooding is quite often extremely high and destroys human beings and property, in many cases flooding is of vital importance because the community benefits from flood recession agriculture. This is the case of the lower Omo plain whose agriculture is based on the regularity of the inundations due to flooding of the Omo Gibe River. The big flood in 2006, which caused death for more than 300 people and 2000 cattle, poses a dilemma. Flooding must be controlled and regulated in a way that the damages are reduced as much as possible but the flooding-related benefits are not lost. To this aim, characterization and understanding of hydrological variability of the Omo Gibe River basin is fundamental. The goal of this work is to extract the maximal amount of information on the hydrological variability and specially on the flooding regime from the few data available in the region. Because most of the basin is ungauged, hydrological information is reconstructed using the data from 9 gauged catchments. A daily water balance model has been developed, calibrated and validated for 9 gauged catchments and, subsequently, the parameters have been correlated to catchment characteristics in order to establish a functional relationship that allows to apply the model to ungauged catchments. Daily streamflow has been predicted for 15 ungauged catchments, which are assumed to comprehensively represent the hydrological variability of the Omo-Gibe River Basin. Even though both northern and southern catchments are affected by a strong seasonality of precipitation, with most of the rain falling in less than 3 months, most of the northern catchments are humid, while in the southern part of the Omo-Gibe River basin, the catchments are either humid, dry sub humid, semiarid or arid. As for climate, also landscape and vegetation cover is more homogeneous in the northern part of the Omo Gibe River basin than in the southern part. Consequently, the runoff variability reflects the interesting diversity of climate and landscape of the basin. The gradient of flooding regimes from the north to the south of the Omo Gibe River basin will be analysed and the impacts of possible regime changes will be discussed.

Modeling the behavior of an ungauged catchment using alternative datasets: a case study of the Caribou catchment in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labrecque, Geneviève; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Chesnaux, Romain

2017-04-01

The modelling of ungauged catchments is a long standing problem in hydrology and there is still no general consensus regarding the best practices to adopt in a variety of situations. In addition to flood and drought forecasting, there are other interests of modelling the hydrological behaviour of a catchment, whether it is gauged or not. For instance, estimation of groundwater recharge can be performed through an integrated modeling of the catchment. In this study, the WaSim model is used to model the hydrology of the Caribou River catchment located in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Since this catchment includes an important aquifer that is used both for drinking water, industrial and potential agricultural purposes, an accurate recharge assessment is important and is the long-term objective of the project. The WaSim model was chosen due to its very versatile soil sub-model features which allow to simulate subsurface flows and calculate the groundwater recharge as an output variable. Since the Caribou River is ungauged, alternative means of calibrating the free parameters of WaSim had to be implemented. The implementation of a calibration protocol that can get the most out of the few available data is a secondary objective and is the subject of this presentation. First, a « twin » gauged catchment is selected for its physiographic and hydro-climatic similarities with the Caribou River catchment. Streamflow series from this « twin » catchment are then transferred and used jointly with the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm (Tolson and Shoemaker 2007) to obtain a raw calibration of the WaSim model parameters. This initial calibration can be further refined using two available datasets: (1) snow water equivalent data interpolated on a 10 km by 10 km grid and (2) a short and discontinuous time series of streamflow obtained using the land-surface scheme of the environmental multiscale atmospheric model (GEM) at Environment and Climate Change Canada and a unit-hydrograph based routing model. The parameters thus obtained are then validated with a few point measurements of streamflow collected at two locations on the Caribou River during a field campaign realized in 2016-2017. The model performance is assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the results show a satisfactory agreement of the WaSim model with the measured values. References: Tolson, B. A., and C. A. Shoemaker. 2007. "Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm for computationally efficient watershed model calibration." Water Resources Research 43 (1). doi: 10.1029/2005wr004723.

Catchments as non-linear filters: evaluating data-driven approaches for spatio-temporal predictions in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D. G.; Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Catchment and climate heterogeneity complicate prediction of runoff across time and space, and resulting parameter uncertainty can lead to large accumulated errors in hydrologic models, particularly in ungauged basins. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been shown to avoid the accumulated uncertainty associated with many physically-based models, providing an appealing alternative for hydrologic prediction. However, the effectiveness of different methods in hydrologically and geomorphically distinct catchments, and the robustness of these methods to changing climate and changing hydrologic processes remain to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of machine learning techniques to predict daily runoff across time and space using only essential climatic forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) time series as model input. Model training and testing was done using a high quality dataset of daily runoff and climate forcing data for 25+ years for 600+ minimally-disturbed catchments (drainage area range 5-25,000 km2, median size 336 km2) that cover a wide range of climatic and physical characteristics. Preliminary results using Support Vector Regression (SVR) suggest that in some catchments this nonlinear-based regression technique can accurately predict daily runoff, while the same approach fails in other catchments, indicating that the representation of climate inputs and/or catchment filter characteristics in the model structure need further refinement to increase performance. We bolster this analysis by using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (a sparse symbolic regression technique) to uncover the governing equations that describe runoff processes in catchments where SVR performed well and for ones where it performed poorly, thereby enabling inference about governing processes. This provides a robust means of examining how catchment complexity influences runoff prediction skill, and represents a contribution towards the integration of data-driven inference and physically-based models.

Global Maps of Temporal Streamflow Characteristics Based on Observations from Many Small Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, H.; van Dijk, A.; de Roo, A.

2014-12-01

Streamflow (Q) estimation in ungauged catchments is one of the greatest challenges facing hydrologists. We used observed Q from approximately 7500 small catchments (<10,000 km2) around the globe to train neural network ensembles to estimate temporal Q distribution characteristics from climate and physiographic characteristics of the catchments. In total 17 Q characteristics were selected, including mean annual Q, baseflow index, and a number of flow percentiles. Training coefficients of determination for the estimation of the Q characteristics ranged from 0.56 for the baseflow recession constant to 0.93 for the Q timing. Overall, climate indices dominated among the predictors. Predictors related to soils and geology were the least important, perhaps due to data quality. The trained neural network ensembles were subsequently applied spatially over the ice-free land surface including ungauged regions, resulting in global maps of the Q characteristics (0.125° spatial resolution). These maps possess several unique features: 1) they represent purely observation-driven estimates; 2) are based on an unprecedentedly large set of catchments; and 3) have associated uncertainty estimates. The maps can be used for various hydrological applications, including the diagnosis of macro-scale hydrological models. To demonstrate this, the produced maps were compared to equivalent maps derived from the simulated daily Q of five macro-scale hydrological models, highlighting various opportunities for improvement in model Q behavior. The produced dataset is available for download.

Ensuring the consistancy of Flow Direction Curve reconstructions: the 'quantile solidarity' approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poncelet, Carine; Andreassian, Vazken; Oudin, Ludovic

2015-04-01

Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) are a hydrologic tool describing the distribution of streamflows at a catchment outlet. FDCs are usually used for calibration of hydrological models, managing water quality and classifying catchments, among others. For gauged catchments, empirical FDCs can be computed from streamflow records. For ungauged catchments, on the other hand, FDCs cannot be obtained from streamflow records and must therefore be obtained in another manner, for example through reconstructions. Regression-based reconstructions are methods relying on the evaluation of quantiles separately from catchments' attributes (climatic or physical features).The advantage of this category of methods is that it is informative about the processes and it is non-parametric. However, the large number of parameters required can cause unwanted artifacts, typically reconstructions that do not always produce increasing quantiles. In this paper we propose a new approach named Quantile Solidarity (QS), which is applied under strict proxy-basin test conditions (Klemes, 1986) to a set of 600 French catchments. Half of the catchments are considered as gauged and used to calibrate the regression and compute residuals of the regression. The QS approach consists in a three-step regionalization scheme, which first links quantile values to physical descriptors, then reduces the number of regression parameters and finally exploits the spatial correlation of the residuals. The innovation is the utilisation of the parameters continuity across the quantiles to dramatically reduce the number of parameters. The second half of catchment is used as an independent validation set over which we show that the QS approach ensures strictly growing FDC reconstructions in ungauged conditions. Reference: V. KLEMEŠ (1986) Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31:1, 13-24

Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, Elena

2013-04-01

The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation approach is then applied for modelling the streamflow originated in the fourth, ungauged, diversion watershed. Finally, the potential reservoir water availability is estimated, hypothesising to take from the diversion catchments all the streamflow exceeding the minimum flow requirements. The results indicate that modifying the water intake structures might allow a consistent increase in the storage volumes in the reservoir during the water scarcity periods: the water available to the reservoir would in fact - on average - increase of around the 13% of the abstracted annual volume.

Estimating flow duration curve in the humid tropics: a disaggregation approach in Hawaiian catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chris, Leong; Yoshiyuki, Yokoo

2017-04-01

Islands that are concentrated in developing countries have poor hydrological research data which contribute to stress on hydrological resources due to unmonitored human influence and negligence. As studies in islands are relatively young, there is a need to understand these stresses and influences by building block research specifically targeting islands. The flow duration curve (FDC) is a simple start up hydrological tool that can be used in initial studies of islands. This study disaggregates the FDC into three sections, top, middle and bottom and in each section runoff is estimated with simple hydrological models. The study is based on Hawaiian Islands, toward estimating runoff in ungauged island catchments in the humid tropics. Runoff estimations in the top and middle sections include using the Curve Number (CN) method and the Regime Curve (RC) respectively. The bottom section is presented as a separate study from this one. The results showed that for majority of the catchments the RC can be used for estimations in the middle section of the FDC. It also showed that in order for the CN method to make stable estimations, it had to be calibrated. This study identifies simple methodologies that can be useful for making runoff estimations in ungauged island catchments.

What Do They Have in Common? Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes in Ungauged Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Radny, D.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

The spatial correlation of daily streamflows represents a statistical index encapsulating the similarity between hydrographs at two arbitrary catchment outlets. In this work, a process-based analytical framework is utilized to investigate the hydrological drivers of streamflow spatial correlation through an extensive application to 78 pairs of stream gauges belonging to 13 unregulated catchments in the eastern United States. The analysis provides insight on how the observed heterogeneity of the physical processes that control flow dynamics ultimately affect streamflow correlation and spatial patterns of flow regimes. Despite the variability of recession properties across the study catchments, the impact of heterogeneous drainage rates on the streamflow spatial correlation is overwhelmed by the spatial variability of frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events. Overall, model performances are satisfactory, with root mean square errors between modeled and observed streamflow spatial correlation below 10% in most cases. We also propose a method for estimating streamflow correlation in the absence of discharge data, which proves useful to predict streamflow regimes in ungauged areas. The method consists in setting a minimum threshold on the modeled flow correlation to individuate hydrologically similar sites. Catchment outlets that are most correlated (ρ>0.9) are found to be characterized by analogous streamflow distributions across a broad range of flow regimes.

An Open Source approach to automated hydrological analysis of ungauged drainage basins in Serbia using R and SAGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlatanovic, Nikola; Milovanovic, Irina; Cotric, Jelena

2014-05-01

Drainage basins are for the most part ungauged or poorly gauged not only in Serbia but in most parts of the world, usually due to insufficient funds, but also the decommission of river gauges in upland catchments to focus on downstream areas which are more populated. Very often, design discharges are needed for these streams or rivers where no streamflow data is available, for various applications. Examples include river training works for flood protection measures or erosion control, design of culverts, water supply facilities, small hydropower plants etc. The estimation of discharges in ungauged basins is most often performed using rainfall-runoff models, whose parameters heavily rely on geomorphometric attributes of the basin (e.g. catchment area, elevation, slopes of channels and hillslopes etc.). The calculation of these, as well as other paramaters, is most often done in GIS (Geographic Information System) software environments. This study deals with the application of freely available and open source software and datasets for automating rainfall-runoff analysis of ungauged basins using methodologies currently in use hydrological practice. The R programming language was used for scripting and automating the hydrological calculations, coupled with SAGA GIS (System for Automated Geoscientivic Analysis) for geocomputing functions and terrain analysis. Datasets used in the analyses include the freely available SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) terrain data, CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover data, as well as soil maps and rainfall data. The choice of free and open source software and datasets makes the project ideal for academic and research purposes and cross-platform projects. The geomorphometric module was tested on more than 100 catchments throughout Serbia and compared to manually calculated values (using topographic maps). The discharge estimation module was tested on 21 catchments where data were available and compared to results obtained by frequency analysis of annual maximum discharge. The geomorphometric module of the calculation system showed excellent results, saving a great deal of time that would otherwise have been spent on manual processing of geospatial data. This type of automated analysis presented in this study will enable a much quicker hydrologic analysis on multiple watersheds, providing the platform for further research into spatial variability of runoff.

Recession-based hydrological models for estimating low flows in ungauged catchments in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, H. G.; Holmes, M. G. R.; Young, A. R.; Kansakar, S. R.

The Himalayan region of Nepal and northern India experiences hydrological extremes from monsoonal floods during July to September, when most of the annual precipitation falls, to periods of very low flows during the dry season (December to February). While the monsoon floods cause acute disasters such as loss of human life and property, mudslides and infrastructure damage, the lack of water during the dry season has a chronic impact on the lives of local people. The management of water resources in the region is hampered by relatively sparse hydrometerological networks and consequently, many resource assessments are required in catchments where no measurements exist. A hydrological model for estimating dry season flows in ungauged catchments, based on recession curve behaviour, has been developed to address this problem. Observed flows were fitted to a second order storage model to enable average annual recession behaviour to be examined. Regionalised models were developed, using a calibration set of 26 catchments, to predict three recession curve parameters: the storage constant; the initial recession flow and the start date of the recession. Relationships were identified between: the storage constant and catchment area; the initial recession flow and elevation (acting as a surrogate for rainfall); and the start date of the recession and geographic location. An independent set of 13 catchments was used to evaluate the robustness of the models. The regional models predicted the average volume of water in an annual recession period (1st of October to the 1st of February) with an average error of 8%, while mid-January flows were predicted to within ±50% for 79% of the catchments in the data set.

Model‐based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments

PubMed Central

Wagener, Thorsten; McGlynn, Brian

2015-01-01

Abstract Ungauged headwater basins are an abundant part of the river network, but dominant influences on headwater hydrologic response remain difficult to predict. To address this gap, we investigated the ability of a physically based watershed model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model) to represent controls on metrics of hydrologic partitioning across five adjacent headwater subcatchments. The five study subcatchments, located in Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana, have similar climate but variable topography and vegetation distribution. This facilitated a comparative hydrology approach to interpret how parameters that influence partitioning, detected via global sensitivity analysis, differ across catchments. Model parameters were constrained a priori using existing regional information and expert knowledge. Influential parameters were compared to perceptions of catchment functioning and its variability across subcatchments. Despite between‐catchment differences in topography and vegetation, hydrologic partitioning across all metrics and all subcatchments was sensitive to a similar subset of snow, vegetation, and soil parameters. Results also highlighted one subcatchment with low certainty in parameter sensitivity, indicating that the model poorly represented some complexities in this subcatchment likely because an important process is missing or poorly characterized in the mechanistic model. For use in other basins, this method can assess parameter sensitivities as a function of the specific ungauged system to which it is applied. Overall, this approach can be employed to identify dominant modeled controls on catchment response and their agreement with system understanding. PMID:27642197

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons". Managers may feel more confident to utilize such models to predict flows in fully ungauged areas.

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA, Oc-gok Basin in Republic of Korea and the haor region of Bangladesh. Keywords: flood index, flood risk management, flood characteristics

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Predictions of runoff signatures in ungauged basins: Austrian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viglione, A.; Parajka, J.; Salinas, J.; Rogger, M.; Sivapalan, M.; Bloeschl, G.

2012-12-01

Runoff variability can be broken up into several components, each of them meaningful of a certain class of applications of societal relevance: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curve, low flows, floods and hydrographs. We call them runoff signatures and we view them as a manifestation of catchment functioning at different time scales, as emergent properties of the complex systems that catchments are. Just as a medical doctor has many different options for studying the state and functioning of a patient, we can infer the state and functioning of a catchment observing its runoff signatures. But what can we do in the absence of runoff data? This study aims to understand how well one can predict runoff signatures in ungauged catchments. The comparison across signatures is based on one consistent data set (Austria) and one regionalisation method (Top-Kriging) in order to explore the relative performance of the predictions of each of the signatures. Results indicate that the performance, assessed by cross-validation, is best for annual and seasonal runoff, it degrades as one moves to low flows and floods and goes up again to high values for runoff hydrographs. Also, dedicated regionalisation methods, i.e. focusing on particular signatures and their characteristics, provide better predictions of the signatures than regionalisation of the entire hydrograph. These results suggest that the use of signatures in the calibration or assessment of process models can be valuable, in that this can lead to models predicting runoff correctly for the right reasons.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Comparative Assessment of a New Hydrological Modelling Approach for Prediction of Runoff in Gauged and Ungauged Basins, and Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A Case Study from Benin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GABA, C. O. U.; Alamou, E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B.

2016-12-01

Assessing water resources is still an important challenge especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we investigate a new modelling approach based on the Physics Principle of Least Action which was first applied to the Bétérou catchment in Benin and gave very good results. The study presents new hypotheses to go further in the model development with a view of widening its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied to sixteen (16) subcatchments in Bénin, West Africa. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The model was successfully calibrated and validated and showed a good performance in most catchments. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to evaluate the usefulness of our model for the prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, model parameters were estimated from the physical catchments characteristics. We relied on statistical methods applied on calibrated model parameters to deduce relationships between parameters and physical catchments characteristics. These relationships were further tested and validated on gauged basins that were considered ungauged. This regionalization was also performed for GR4J model.We obtained NSE values greater than 0.7 for MODHYPMA while the NSE values for GR4J were inferior to 0.5. In the presented study, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment at the outlet of Savè (about 23 500 km2) are quantified. The output of a regional climate model was used as input to the hydrological models.Computed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the future climate projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 15%) are derived from the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model.The results reveal a significant decrease in future water resources (of -66% to -53% for MODHYPMA and of -59% to -46% for GR4J) for the IPCC climate scenarios A1B and B1.

Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China's mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Qinghua; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Li, Zhe

2016-10-01

Flash flooding is one of the most common natural hazards in China, particularly in mountainous areas, and usually causes heavy damage and casualties. However, the forecasting of flash flooding in mountainous regions remains challenging because of the short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This paper aims to establish a strategy for flash flood warnings in mountainous ungauged catchments across humid, semi-humid and semi-arid regions of China. First, we implement a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) in four mountainous catchments with drainage areas that ranges from 493 to 1601 km2. The results show that the GBHM can simulate flash floods appropriately in these four study catchments. We propose a method to determine the rainfall threshold for flood warning by using frequency analysis and binary classification based on long-term GBHM simulations that are forced by historical rainfall data to create a practically easy and straightforward approach for flash flood forecasting in ungauged mountainous catchments with drainage areas from tens to hundreds of square kilometers. The results show that the rainfall threshold value decreases significantly with increasing antecedent soil moisture in humid regions, while this value decreases slightly with increasing soil moisture in semi-humid and semi-arid regions. We also find that accumulative rainfall over a certain time span (or rainfall over a long time span) is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings in humid regions because the runoff is dominated by excess saturation. However, the rainfall intensity (or rainfall over a short time span) is more suitable in semi-humid and semi-arid regions because excess infiltration dominates the runoff in these regions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the rainfall threshold and find that the proposed method produces reasonably accurate flash flood warnings in the study catchments. An evaluation of the performance at uncalibrated interior points in the four gauged catchments provides results that are indicative of the expected performance at ungauged locations. We also find that insufficient historical data lengths (13 years with a 5-year flood return period in this study) may introduce uncertainty in the estimation of the flood/rainfall threshold because of the small number of flood events that are used in binary classification. A data sample that contains enough flood events (10 events suggested in the present study) that exceed the threshold value is necessary to obtain acceptable results from binary classification.

Design of Environmental Flows Below Diversion Hydropower Dams: Is There Benefit to Advanced Streamflow Prediction in Sparse Data Landscapes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2017-12-01

Diversion hydropower has been shown to significantly alter river flow regimes by dewatering diversion bypass reaches. Data scarcity is one of the foremost challenges to establishing environmental flow regimes below diversion hydropower dams, especially in regions of sparse hydro-meteorological observation. Herein, we test two prediction strategies for generating daily flows in rivers developed with diversion hydropower: a catchment similarity model, and a rainfall-runoff model selected by multi-objective optimization based on soft data. While both methods are designed for ungauged rivers embedded within large regions of sparse hydrologic observation, one is more complex and computationally-intensive. The objective of this study is to assess the benefit of using complex modeling tools in data-sparse landscapes to support design of environmental flow regimes. Models were tested in gauged catchments and then used to simulate a 28-year record of daily flows in 32 ungauged rivers. After perturbing flows with the hydropower diversion, we detect alteration using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) metrics and compare outcomes of the two modeling approaches. The catchment similarity model simulates low flows well (Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) = 0.91), but poorly represents moderate to high flows (overall NSE = 0.25). The multi-objective rainfall-runoff model performs well overall (NSE = 0.72). Both models agree that flow magnitudes and variability consistently decrease following diversion as temporally-dynamic flows are replaced by static minimal flows. Mean duration of events sustained below the pre-diversion Q75 and mean hydrograph rise and fall rates increase. While we see broad areas of agreement, significant effects and thresholds vary between models, particularly in the representation of moderate flows. Thus, use of simplified streamflow models may bias detected alterations or inadequately characterize pre-regulation flow regimes, providing inaccurate information as a basis for flow regime design. As an alternative, the multi-objective framework can be applied globally, and is robust to common challenges of flow prediction in ungauged rivers, such as equifinality and hydrologic dissimilarity of reference catchments.

The Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool, a minimum information requirement nutrient pollution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, R.; Quinn, P. F.; Bowes, M. J.

2015-04-01

A model for simulating runoff pathways and water quality fluxes has been developed using the minimum information requirement (MIR) approach. The model, the Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT), is applicable to mesoscale catchments and focusses primarily on hydrological pathways that mobilise nutrients. Hence CRAFT can be used to investigate the impact of flow pathway management intervention strategies designed to reduce the loads of nutrients into receiving watercourses. The model can help policy makers meet water quality targets and consider methods to obtain "good" ecological status. A case study of the 414 km2 Frome catchment, Dorset, UK, has been described here as an application of CRAFT in order to highlight the above issues at the mesoscale. The model was primarily calibrated on 10-year records of weekly data to reproduce the observed flows and nutrient (nitrate nitrogen - N; phosphorus - P) concentrations. Data from 2 years with sub-daily monitoring at the same site were also analysed. These data highlighted some additional signals in the nutrient flux, particularly of soluble reactive phosphorus, which were not observable in the weekly data. This analysis has prompted the choice of using a daily time step as the minimum information requirement to simulate the processes observed at the mesoscale, including the impact of uncertainty. A management intervention scenario was also run to demonstrate how the model can support catchment managers investigating how reducing the concentrations of N and P in the various flow pathways. This mesoscale modelling tool can help policy makers consider a range of strategies to meet the European Union (EU) water quality targets for this type of catchment.

Monthly hydroclimatology of the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Thomas; Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2018-04-01

Physical/semi-empirical models that do not require any calibration are of paramount need for estimating hydrological fluxes for ungauged sites. We develop semi-empirical models for estimating the mean and variance of the monthly streamflow based on Taylor Series approximation of a lumped physically based water balance model. The proposed models require mean and variance of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, co-variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and regionally calibrated catchment retention sensitivity, atmospheric moisture uptake sensitivity, groundwater-partitioning factor, and the maximum soil moisture holding capacity parameters. Estimates of mean and variance of monthly streamflow using the semi-empirical equations are compared with the observed estimates for 1373 catchments in the continental United States. Analyses show that the proposed models explain the spatial variability in monthly moments for basins in lower elevations. A regionalization of parameters for each water resources region show good agreement between observed moments and model estimated moments during January, February, March and April for mean and all months except May and June for variance. Thus, the proposed relationships could be employed for understanding and estimating the monthly hydroclimatology of ungauged basins using regional parameters.

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadi, Peiman; Engelke, Sebastian; Davison, Anthony C.

2018-01-01

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate high quantiles at a target location that has no observations. The similarity of this group to the ungauged location is measured in terms of a hydrological distance measuring differences in physical and meteorological catchment attributes. We develop a statistical method for estimation of high return levels based on regionalizing the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution. The group of stations is chosen by optimizing over the attribute weights of the hydrological distance, ensuring similarity and in-group homogeneity. Our method is applied to discharge data from the Rhine basin in Switzerland, and its performance at ungauged locations is compared to that of other regionalization methods. For gauged locations we show how our approach improves the estimation uncertainty for long return periods by combining local measurements with those from the chosen group.

The efficiency of average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling in identifying homogeneous precipitation catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuan, Zun Liang; Ismail, Noriszura; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Lit Ken, Tan; Fam, Soo-Fen; Senawi, Azlyna; Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan

2018-04-01

Due to the limited of historical precipitation records, agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms widely used to extrapolate information from gauged to ungauged precipitation catchments in yielding a more reliable projection of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as extreme precipitation events. However, identifying the optimum number of homogeneous precipitation catchments accurately based on the dendrogram resulted using agglomerative hierarchical algorithms are very subjective. The main objective of this study is to propose an efficient regionalized algorithm to identify the homogeneous precipitation catchments for non-stationary precipitation time series. The homogeneous precipitation catchments are identified using average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling, while uncentered correlation coefficient as the similarity measure. The regionalized homogeneous precipitation is consolidated using K-sample Anderson Darling non-parametric test. The analysis result shows the proposed regionalized algorithm performed more better compared to the proposed agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm in previous studies.

Parameter transferability within homogeneous regions and comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouaib, Wafa; Alila, Younes; Caldwell, Peter V.

2018-05-01

The need for predictions of flow time-series persists at ungauged catchments, motivating the research goals of our study. By means of the Sacramento model, this paper explores the use of parameter transfer within homogeneous regions of similar climate and flow characteristics and makes comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters. We assessed the performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), bias, mean monthly hydrograph and flow duration curve (FDC). The study was conducted on a large dataset of 73 catchments within the eastern US. Two approaches to the parameter transferability were developed and evaluated; (i) the within homogeneous region parameter transfer using one donor catchment specific to each region, (ii) the parameter transfer disregarding the geographical limits of homogeneous regions, where one donor catchment was common to all regions. Comparisons between both parameter transfers enabled to assess the gain in performance from the parameter regionalization and its respective constraints and limitations. The parameter transfer within homogeneous regions outperformed the a priori parameters and led to a decrease in bias and increase in efficiency reaching a median NS of 0.77 and a NS of 0.85 at individual catchments. The use of FDC revealed the effect of bias on the inaccuracy of prediction from parameter transfer. In one specific region, of mountainous and forested catchments, the prediction accuracy of the parameter transfer was less satisfactory and equivalent to a priori parameters. In this region, the parameter transfer from the outsider catchment provided the best performance; less-biased with smaller uncertainty in medium flow percentiles (40%-60%). The large disparity of energy conditions explained the lack of performance from parameter transfer in this region. Besides, the subsurface stormflow is predominant and there is a likelihood of lateral preferential flow, which according to its specific properties further explained the reduced efficiency. Testing the parameter transferability using criteria of similar climate and flow characteristics at ungauged catchments and comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters are a novelty. The ultimate limitations of both approaches are recognized and recommendations are made for future research.

Accounting for the influence of vegetation and landscape improves model transferability in a tropical savannah region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2016-10-01

Understanding which catchment characteristics dominate hydrologic response and how to take them into account remains a challenge in hydrological modeling, particularly in ungauged basins. This is even more so in nontemperate and nonhumid catchments, where—due to the combination of seasonality and the occurrence of dry spells—threshold processes are more prominent in rainfall runoff behavior. An example is the tropical savannah, the second largest climatic zone, characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons and high evaporative demand. In this study, we investigated the importance of landscape variability on the spatial variability of stream flow in tropical savannah basins. We applied a stepwise modeling approach to 23 subcatchments of the Upper Ping River in Thailand, where gradually more information on landscape was incorporated. The benchmark is represented by a classical lumped model (FLEXL), which does not account for spatial variability. We then tested the effect of accounting for vegetation information within the lumped model (FLEXLM), and subsequently two semidistributed models: one accounting for the spatial variability of topography-based landscape features alone (FLEXT), and another accounting for both topographic features and vegetation (FLEXTM). In cross validation, each model was calibrated on one catchment, and then transferred with its fitted parameters to the remaining catchments. We found that when transferring model parameters in space, the semidistributed models accounting for vegetation and topographic heterogeneity clearly outperformed the lumped model. This suggests that landscape controls a considerable part of the hydrological function and explicit consideration of its heterogeneity can be highly beneficial for prediction in ungauged basins in tropical savannah.

Modeling flash floods in southern France for road management purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincendon, Béatrice; Édouard, Simon; Dewaele, Hélène; Ducrocq, Véronique; Lespinas, Franck; Delrieu, Guy; Anquetin, Sandrine

2016-10-01

Flash-floods are among the most devastating hazards in the Mediterranean. A major subset of damage and casualties caused by flooding is related to road submersion. Distributed hydrological nowcasting can be used for road flooding monitoring. This requires rainfall-runoff simulations at a high space and time resolution. Distributed hydrological models, such as the ISBA-TOP coupled system used in this study, are designed to simulate discharges for any cross-section of a river but they are generally calibrated for certain outlets and give deteriorated results for the sub-catchment outlets. The paper first analyses ISBA-TOP discharge simulations in the French Mediterranean region for target points different from the outlets used for calibration. The sensitivity of the model to its governing factors is examined to highlight the validity of results obtained for ungauged river sections compared with those obtained for the main gauged outlets. The use of improved model inputs is found beneficial for sub-catchments simulation. The calibration procedure however provides the parameters' values for the main outlets only and these choices influence the simulations for ungauged catchments or sub-catchments. As a result, a new version of ISBA-TOP system without any parameter to calibrate is used to produce diagnostics relevant for quantifying the risk of road submersion. A first diagnostic is the simulated runoff spatial distribution, it provides a useful information about areas with a high risk of submersion. Then an indicator of the flood severity is given by simulated discharges presented with respect to return periods. The latter has to be used together with information about the vulnerability of road-river cross-sections.

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes for catchment classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gioia, A.; Manfreda, S.; Iacobellis, V.; Fiorentino, M.

2009-04-01

The identification of similar hydroclimatic regions in order to reduce the uncertainty on flood prediction in ungauged basins, represents one of the most exciting challenges faced by hydrologists in the last few years (e.g., IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - Sivapalan et al. [2003]). In this context, the investigation of the dominant runoff generation mechanisms may provide a strategy for catchment classification and identification of hydrologically homogeneous group of basins. In particular, the present study focuses on two classical schemes responsible of runoff production: saturation and infiltration excess. Thus, in principle, the occurrence of either mechanism may be detected in the same basin according to the climatic forcing. Here the dynamics of runoff generation are investigated over a set of basins in order to identify the dynamics which are responsible of the transition between the two schemes and to recognize homogeneous group of basins. We exploit a basin characterization obtained by means of a theoretical flood probability distribution, which was applied on a broad number of arid and humid river basins belonging to the Southern Italy region, with aim to describe the effect of different runoff production mechanisms in the generation of ordinary and extraordinary flood events. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.: IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857-880, 2003.

Hydrologic Analysis of Ungauged Catchments For The Supply of Water For Irrigation On Railway Embankment Batters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyasi-Agyei, Y.; Nissen, D.

Water has been identified as a key component to the success of grass establishment on railway embankment batters (side slope) within Central Queensland, Australia, to control erosion. However, the region under study being semi-arid experiences less than 600 mm average annual rainfall occurring on about 60 days of the year. Culverts and bridges are integral part of railway embankments. They are used to cross water courses, be it an ephemeral creek or just a surface runoff path. Surface runoff through an ungauged railway embankment culvert is diverted to a temporary excavated pond located at the downstream side of the hydraulic structure. The temporary excavated pond water is used to feed an automated drip irrigation system, with solar as a source of energy to drive a pump. Railway embankment batter erosion remediation is timed in the wet season when irrigation is used to supplement natural rainfall. Hydrologic analysis of ungauged catchments for sizing the temporary excavated pond is presented. It is based on scenarios of runoff coefficient and curve number, and mass curve (Rippl diagram). Three years of continuous rainfall data (1997/1998 -1999/2000) were used to design a pond. The performance of the designed pond was evaluated in a field experiment during the next wet season (2000/2001). It supplied adequate water for irrigation as predicted by the hydrologic analysis during the grass establishment. This helped to achieve 100% grass cover on the railway embankment batter within 12 weeks. The proposed irrigation system has been demonstrated t o be feasible and cost effective.

Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

2014-06-01

In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of added information. In this qualitative analysis of a statistically small number of predictions we learned (i) that soft information such as the modeller's system understanding is as important as the model itself (hard information), (ii) that the sequence of modelling steps matters (field visit, interactions between differently experienced experts, choice of model, selection of available data, and methods for parameter guessing), and (iii) that added process understanding can be as efficient as adding data for improving parameters needed to satisfy model requirements.

Stochastic or statistic? Comparing flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2015-09-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.

Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-02-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Catchment classification by runoff behaviour with self-organizing maps (SOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ley, R.; Casper, M. C.; Hellebrand, H.; Merz, R.

2011-09-01

Catchments show a wide range of response behaviour, even if they are adjacent. For many purposes it is necessary to characterise and classify them, e.g. for regionalisation, prediction in ungauged catchments, model parameterisation. In this study, we investigate hydrological similarity of catchments with respect to their response behaviour. We analyse more than 8200 event runoff coefficients (ERCs) and flow duration curves of 53 gauged catchments in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, for the period from 1993 to 2008, covering a huge variability of weather and runoff conditions. The spatio-temporal variability of event-runoff coefficients and flow duration curves are assumed to represent how different catchments "transform" rainfall into runoff. From the runoff coefficients and flow duration curves we derive 12 signature indices describing various aspects of catchment response behaviour to characterise each catchment. Hydrological similarity of catchments is defined by high similarities of their indices. We identify, analyse and describe hydrologically similar catchments by cluster analysis using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). As a result of the cluster analysis we get five clusters of similarly behaving catchments where each cluster represents one differentiated class of catchments. As catchment response behaviour is supposed to be dependent on its physiographic and climatic characteristics, we compare groups of catchments clustered by response behaviour with clusters of catchments based on catchment properties. Results show an overlap of 67% between these two pools of clustered catchments which can be improved using the topologic correctness of SOMs.

Catchment classification by runoff behaviour with self-organizing maps (SOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ley, R.; Casper, M. C.; Hellebrand, H.; Merz, R.

2011-03-01

Catchments show a wide range of response behaviour, even if they are adjacent. For many purposes it is necessary to characterise and classify them, e.g. for regionalisation, prediction in ungauged catchments, model parameterisation. In this study, we investigate hydrological similarity of catchments with respect to their response behaviour. We analyse more than 8200 event runoff coefficients (ERCs) and flow duration curves of 53 gauged catchments in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, for the period from 1993 to 2008, covering a huge variability of weather and runoff conditions. The spatio-temporal variability of event-runoff coefficients and flow duration curves are assumed to represent how different catchments "transform" rainfall into runoff. From the runoff coefficients and flow duration curves we derive 12 signature indices describing various aspects of catchment response behaviour to characterise each catchment. Hydrological similarity of catchments is defined by high similarities of their indices. We identify, analyse and describe hydrologically similar catchments by cluster analysis using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). As a result of the cluster analysis we get five clusters of similarly behaving catchments where each cluster represents one differentiated class of catchments. As catchment response behaviour is supposed to be dependent on its physiographic and climatic characteristics, we compare groups of catchments clustered by response behaviour with clusters of catchments based on catchment properties. Results show an overlap of 67% between these two pools of clustered catchments which can be improved using the topologic correctness of SOMs.

Hydrological simulation of the Brahmaputra basin using global datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Conway, Crystal; Craven, Joanne; Masih, Ilyas; Mazzolini, Maurizio; Shrestha, Shreedeepy; Ugay, Reyne; van Andel, Schalk Jan

2017-04-01

Brahmaputra River flows through China, India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal and is one of the largest rivers of the world with a catchment size of 580K km2. The catchment is largely hilly and/or forested with sparse population and with limited urbanisation and economic activities. The catchment experiences heavy monsoon rainfall leading to very high flood discharges. Large inter-annual variation of discharge leading to flooding, erosion and morphological changes are among the major challenges. The catchment is largely ungauged; moreover, limited availability of hydro-meteorological data limits the possibility of carrying out evidence based research, which could provide trustworthy information for managing and when needed, controlling, the basin processes by the riparian countries for overall basin development. The paper presents initial results of a current research project on Brahmaputra basin. A set of hydrological and hydraulic models (SWAT, HMS, RAS) are developed by employing publicly available datasets of DEM, land use and soil and simulated using satellite based rainfall products, evapotranspiration and temperature estimates. Remotely sensed data are compared with sporadically available ground data. The set of models are able to produce catchment wide hydrological information that potentially can be used in the future in managing the basin's water resources. The model predications should be used with caution due to high level of uncertainty because the semi-calibrated models are developed with uncertain physical representation (e.g. cross-section) and simulated with global meteorological forcing (e.g. TRMM) with limited validation. Major scientific challenges are seen in producing robust information that can be reliably used in managing the basin. The information generated by the models are uncertain and as a result, instead of using them per se, they are used in improving the understanding of the catchment, and by running several scenarios with varying catchment conditions the catchment dynamics is explored. Objectives are set that suit the data availability. For example, patterns (e.g., variation of rainfall in the lower basin) and aggregates/averages (seasonal averages) are preferred over point information. Instead of simulating instantaneous flood propagation flood extent corresponding to a frequency is followed. As satellite rainfall products may be erroneous so a variety of satellite based products are used as ensemble input. Satellite rainfall estimates are corrected for bias and different rainfall products are aggregated in a data fusion framework. Finally, the linkages between catchment erosion, hydrology and morphological changes are investigated and validated with remote sensing imageries. Keywords: Brahmaputra, hydrology, TRMM, data fusion, ungauged basin.

Modeller's attitude in catchment modelling: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2010-05-01

Ten modellers have been invited to predict, independently from each other, the discharge of the artificial Chicken Creek catchment in North-East Germany for simulation period of three years, providing them only soil texture, terrain and meteorological data. No data concerning the discharge or other sources of state variables and fluxes within the catchment have been provided. Modellers had however the opportunity to visit the experimental catchment and inspect areal photos of the catchments since its initial development stage. This study has been a unique comparative study focussing on how different modellers deal with the key issues in predicting the discharge in ungauged catchments: 1) choice of the model structure; 2) identification of model parameters; 3) identification of model initial and boundary conditions. The first general lesson learned during this study was that the modeller is just part of the entire modelling process and has a major bearing on the model results, particularly in ungauged catchments where there are more degrees of freedom in making modelling decisions. Modellers' attitudes during the stages of the model implementation and parameterisation have been deeply influenced by their own experience from previous modelling studies. A common outcome was that modellers have been mainly oriented to apply process-based models able to exploit the available data concerning the physical properties of the catchment and therefore could be more suitable to cope with the lack of data concerning state variables or fluxes. The second general lesson learned during this study was the role of dominant processes. We believed that the modelling task would have been much easier in an artificial catchment, where heterogeneity were expected to be negligible and processes simpler, than in catchments that have evolved over a longer time period. The results of the models were expected to converge, and this would have been a good starting point to proceed for a model comparison in natural, more challenging catchments. This model comparison showed instead that even a small artificial catchment exhibits heterogeneities which lead to similar modelling problems as in natural catchments. We also verified that qualitative knowledge of the potential surface processes, such as that could be gained by visual inspection of the catchment (erosion marks, canopy features, soil crusting, ect.), have been vastly employed by the modellers to guess the dominant processes to be modelled and therefore to make choices on model structure and guesses of model parameters. The two lessons learned from this intercomparison study are closely linked. The experience of a modeller is crucial in the (subjective) process of deciding upon the dominant processes that seem to be sufficiently important to be incorporated into the model. On the other hand, the cumulated experience will also play an important role in how different pieces of evidence from, for example, field inspections, will modify the initial conceptual understanding.

Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

2012-04-01

The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, A.; Koussis, A. D.; Koutsoyiannis, D.; Mamassis, N.

2014-06-01

Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from typically few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Furrer, Reinhard; Seibert, Jan; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-03-01

Flood hydrograph shapes contain valuable information on the flood-generation mechanisms of a catchment. To make good use of this information, we express flood hydrograph shapes as continuous functions using a functional data approach. We propose a clustering approach based on functional data for flood hydrograph shapes to identify a set of representative hydrograph shapes on a catchment scale and use these catchment-specific sets of representative hydrographs to establish regions of catchments with similar flood reactivity on a regional scale. We applied this approach to flood samples of 163 medium-size Swiss catchments. The results indicate that three representative hydrograph shapes sufficiently describe the hydrograph shape variability within a catchment and therefore can be used as a proxy for the flood behavior of a catchment. These catchment-specific sets of three hydrographs were used to group the catchments into three reactivity regions of similar flood behavior. These regions were not only characterized by similar hydrograph shapes and reactivity but also by event magnitudes and triggering event conditions. We envision these regions to be useful in regionalization studies, regional flood frequency analyses, and to allow for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. The clustering approach based on functional data which establish these regions is very flexible and has the potential to be extended to other geographical regions or toward the use in climate impact studies.

Developing a nutrient pollution model to assist policy makers by using a meso-scale Minimum Information Requirement (MIR) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, R.; Quinn, P. F.; Bowes, M. J.

2014-09-01

A model for simulating runoff pathways and water quality fluxes has been developed using the Minimum Information (MIR) approach. The model, the Catchment Runoff Attenuation Tool (CRAFT) is applicable to meso-scale catchments which focusses primarily on hydrological pathways that mobilise nutrients. Hence CRAFT can be used investigate the impact of management intervention strategies designed to reduce the loads of nutrients into receiving watercourses. The model can help policy makers, for example in Europe, meet water quality targets and consider methods to obtain "good" ecological status. A case study of the 414 km2 Frome catchment, Dorset UK, has been described here as an application of the CRAFT model. The model was primarily calibrated on ten years of weekly data to reproduce the observed flows and nutrient (nitrate nitrogen - N - and phosphorus - P) concentrations. Also data from two years of sub-daily high resolution monitoring at the same site were also analysed. These data highlighted some additional signals in the nutrient flux, particularly of soluble reactive phosphorus, which were not observable in the weekly data. This analysis has prompted the choice of using a daily timestep for this meso-scale modelling study as the minimum information requirement. A management intervention scenario was also run to show how the model can support catchment managers to investigate how reducing the concentrations of N and P in the various flow pathways. This scale appropriate modelling tool can help policy makers consider a range of strategies to to meet the European Union (EU) water quality targets for this type of catchment.

Regionalisation of low flow frequency curves for the Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamun, Abdullah A.; Hashim, Alias; Daoud, Jamal I.

2010-02-01

SUMMARYRegional maps and equations for the magnitude and frequency of 1, 7 and 30-day low flows were derived and are presented in this paper. The river gauging stations of neighbouring catchments that produced similar low flow frequency curves were grouped together. As such, the Peninsular Malaysia was divided into seven low flow regions. Regional equations were developed using the multivariate regression technique. An empirical relationship was developed for mean annual minimum flow as a function of catchment area, mean annual rainfall and mean annual evaporation. The regional equations exhibited good coefficient of determination ( R2 > 0.90). Three low flow frequency curves showing the low, mean and high limits for each region were proposed based on a graphical best-fit technique. Knowing the catchment area, mean annual rainfall and evaporation in the region, design low flows of different durations can be easily estimated for the ungauged catchments. This procedure is expected to overcome the problem of data unavailability in estimating low flows in the Peninsular Malaysia.

Which catchment characteristics control the temporal dependence structure of daily river flows?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiverton, Andrew; Hannaford, Jamie; Holman, Ian; Corstanje, Ron; Prudhomme, Christel; Bloomfield, John; Hess, Tim

2014-05-01

A hydrological classification system would provide information about the dominant processes in the catchment enabling information to be transferred between catchments. Currently there is no widely-agreed upon system for classifying river catchments. This paper developed a novel approach to assess the influence that catchment characteristics have on the precipitation-to-flow relationship, using a catchment classification based on the average temporal dependence structure in daily river flow data over the period 1980 to 2010. Temporal dependence in river flow data is driven by the flow pathways, connectivity and storage within the catchment. Temporal dependence was analysed by creating temporally averaged semi-variograms for a set of 116 near-natural catchments (in order to prevent direct anthropogenic disturbances influencing the results) distributed throughout the UK. Cluster analysis, using the variogram, classified the catchments into four well defined clusters driven by the interaction of catchment characteristics, predominantly characteristics which influence the precipitation-to-flow relationship. Geology, depth to gleyed layer in soils, slope of the catchment and the percentage of arable land were significantly different between the clusters. These characteristics drive the temporal dependence structure by influencing the rate at which water moves through the catchment and / or the storage in the catchment. Arable land is correlated with several other variables, hence is a proxy indicating the residence time of the water in the catchment. Finally, quadratic discriminant analysis was used to show that a model with five catchment characteristics is able to predict the temporal dependence structure for un-gauged catchments. This work demonstrates that a variogram-based approach is a powerful and flexible methodology for grouping catchments based on the precipitation-to-flow relationship which could be applied to any set of catchments with a relatively complete daily river flow record.

Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Up-scaling from physically based numerical simulations at hillslope scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ali, Melkamu; Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi

2014-07-19

Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall-runoff response, especially in steep forested regions. However; its contribution is poorly represented in current generation of land surface hydrological models (LSMs) and catchment-scale rainfall-runoff models. The lack of physical basis of common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global models. This paper is aimed at deriving physically based parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship relating to subsurface flow. These parameterizations are derived through a two-step up-scaling procedure: firstly, through simulations with a physically based (Darcian) subsurfacemore » flow model for idealized three dimensional rectangular hillslopes, accounting for within-hillslope random heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties, and secondly, through subsequent up-scaling to the catchment scale by accounting for between-hillslope and within-catchment heterogeneity of topographic features (e.g., slope). These theoretical simulation results produced parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship in terms of soil hydraulic properties, topographic slope and their heterogeneities, which were consistent with results of previous studies. Yet, regionalization of the resulting storage-discharge relations across 50 actual catchments in eastern United States, and a comparison of the regionalized results with equivalent empirical results obtained on the basis of analysis of observed streamflow recession curves, revealed a systematic inconsistency. It was found that the difference between the theoretical and empirically derived results could be explained, to first order, by climate in the form of climatic aridity index. This suggests a possible codependence of climate, soils, vegetation and topographic properties, and suggests that subsurface flow parameterization needed for ungauged locations must account for both the physics of flow in heterogeneous landscapes, and the co-dependence of soil and topographic properties with climate, including possibly the mediating role of vegetation.« less

Interest of A Morphological Explanation of The Unit Hydrograph Concept: Case of Urban Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, F.; Cudennec, C.; Cellier, G.; Andrieu, H.

Expansion of urbanised areas has put emphasis on related water management prob- lems, such as flooding and pollution control, which requires a good knowledge of the hydrological response of urban catchments. Unfortunately, most of urban catchments are ungauged and their hydrological features must be deduced from existent data. A good description of the urban characteristics can give some advances in the field of urban hydrology : the geographical and physical knowledge of the city is made eas- ier by the emergence of urban data banks, introducing a meter-scale morphological description of the city. Linking the hydrological response of a catchment to its geo- morphology has been successfully implemented in natural settings within the concept of GIUH (Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph). In the same manner, the available description of urban catchments makes it possible to deduce their hydrolog- ical behaviour throughout the Unit Hydrograph concept. We suggest to compare three complementary methods of determination of Unit Hydrographs, with increasing de- grees of description of the catchment morphology. The first method, presenting a high degree of accounting for the catchment morphology, is called MIUH (Morphologi- cal Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph; Rodriguez et al., 2000), and is derived from the analysis of urban databanks allowing an explicit description of the runoff production areas and their downstream flow channels. The second one, called H2U (Duchesne et al., 1997) and corresponding to a moderate degree, is a gamma law whose 2 pa- rameters are based on the Strahler order of the catchment and the mean hydraulic length of water paths through the drainage system. The third method, called FDTF (First Derivative Transfert Function; Duband et al., 1993) and corresponding to a low degree, is a validation method deriving Unit Hydrograph by a deconvolution itera- tive identification technique, from a sample of observed rainfall and flow data. The three methods are shortly summarised, and applied to two urban catchments of the Nantes urban center (60 and 180 ha), Western France. Their comparison is discussed and shows encouraging results. Deriving Unit Hydrographs from the morphology of ungauged catchment appears to be of high interest for hydrology, and the degree of accounting for informations about this morphology can be adapted according to the availability of geographical data on the studied catchment. Duchesne, J., C. Cudennec, and V. Corbierre, 1997. Relevance of the H2U model to 1 predict the discharge of a catchment, Water Science and Technology, 36(5), 169-175. Duband, D., C. Obled, and J. Rodriguez, 1993. Unit hydrograph revisited : an alterna- tive approach to UH and effective precipitation identification. Journal of Hydrology, 150(1): p 115-150. Rodriguez, F., H. Andrieu, J.D. Creutin, and G. Raimbault, 2000. Hydrological anal- ysis using urban data banks, paper presented at Hydroinformatics, IIHR Iowa City, USA. 2

Regionalization of response routine parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tøfte, Lena S.; Sultan, Yisak A.

2013-04-01

When area distributed hydrological models are to be calibrated or updated, fewer calibration parameters is of a considerable advantage. Based on, among others, Kirchner, we have developed a simple non-threshold response model for drainage in natural catchments, to be used in the gridded hydrological model ENKI. The new response model takes only the hydrogram into account, it has one state and two parameters, and is adapted to catchments that are dominated by terrain drainage. The method is based on the assumption that in catchments where precipitation, evaporation and snowmelt is neglect able, the discharge is entirely determined by the amount of stored water. It can then be characterized as a simple first-order nonlinear dynamical system, where the governing equations can be found directly from measured stream flow fluctuations. This means that the response in the catchment can be modelled by using hydrogram data where all data from periods with rain, snowmelt or evaporation is left out, and adjust these series to a two or three parameter equation. A large number of discharge series from catchments in different regions in Norway are analyzed, and parameters found for all the series. By combining the computed parameters and known catchments characteristics, we try to regionalize the parameters. Then the parameters in the response routine can easily be found also for ungauged catchments, from maps or data bases.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Su, C.-H.; Crow, W. T.; Robertson, D. E.; Leahy, C.

2014-09-01

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address systematic errors in the model.

Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2010-05-01

The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important source of economic income for Botswana. A second hydrological model simulating flow through the wetlands is used to study the impact of catchment runoff changes on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The final goal of the project is to demonstrate the relation between economic benefits of water abstractions in the upstream and downstream environmental impact. Furthermore the results will provide a basis for defining adequate compensations for upstream stakeholders who forego benefits of agricultural intensification to ensure the conservation of downstream ecosystem services.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

A simplified rainfall-runoff stochastic simulation method for an application of the SCHADEX method to ungauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

2014-05-01

SCHADEX is a probabilistic method for extreme flood estimation, developed and applied since 2006 at Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design [Paquet et al., 2013]. SCHADEX is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process. The method has been built around two models: a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern (MEWP) distribution for rainfall probability estimation [Garavaglia et al., 2010] and the MORDOR hydrological model. To use SCHADEX in ungauged context, rainfall distribution and hydrological model must be regionalized. The regionalization of the MEWP rainfall distribution can be managed with SPAZM, a daily rainfall interpolator [Gottardi et al., 2012] which provides reasonable estimates of point and areal rainfall up to hight quantiles. The main issue remains to regionalize MORDOR which is heavily parametrized. A much more simple model has been considered: the SCS model. It is a well known model for event simulation [USDA SCS, 1985; Beven, 2003] and it relies on only one parameter. Then, the idea is to use the SCS model instead of MORDOR within a simplified stochastic simulation scheme to produce a distribution of flood volume from an exhaustive crossing between rainy events and catchment saturation hazards. The presentation details this process and its capacity to generate a runoff distribution based on catchment areal rainfall distribution. The simulation method depends on a unique parameter Smax, the maximum initial loss of the catchment. Then an initial loss S (between zero and Smax) can be drawn to account for the variability of catchment state (between dry and saturated). The distribution of initial loss (or conversely, of catchment saturation, as modeled by MORDOR) seems closely linked to the catchment's regime, therefore easily to regionalize. The simulation takes into account a snow contribution for snow driven catchments, and an antecedent runoff. The presentation shows the results of this stochastic procedure applied on 80 French catchments and its capacity to represent the asymptotic behaviour of the runoff distribution. References: K. J. Beven. Rainfall-Runoff modelling The Primer, British Library, 2003. F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14(6):951-964, 2010. F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet. Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154-167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, R Garçon, and J. Gailhard. The schadex method : a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 2013. USDA SCS, National Engineering Handbook, Supplement A, Section 4, Chapter 10. Whashington DC, 1985.

Spatial patterns of stream temperatures and electric conductivity in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieder, Ernestine; Weiler, Markus; Blume, Theresa

2017-04-01

Stream temperature and electric conductivity (EC) are both relatively easily measured and can provide valuable information on runoff generation processes and catchment storage.This study investigates the spatial variability of stream temperature and EC in a mesoscale basin. We focus on the mesoscale (sub-catchments and reach scale), and long term (seasonal / annual) stream temperature and EC patterns. Our study basin is the Attert catchment in Luxembourg (288km2), which contains multiple sub-catchments of different geology, topography and land use patterns. We installed 90 stream temperature and EC sensors at sites across the basin in summer 2015. The collected data is complemented by land use and discharge data and an extensive climate data set. Thermal sensitivity was calculated as the slope of daily air temperature-water-temperature regression line and describes the sensitivity of stream temperature to long term environmental change. Amplitude sensitivity was calculated as slope of the daily air and water temperature amplitude regression and describes the short term warming capacity of the stream. We found that groups with similar long term thermal and EC patterns are strongly related to different geological units. The sandstone reaches show the coldest temperatures and lowest annual thermal sensitivity to air temperature. The slate reaches are characterized by comparably low EC and high daily temperature amplitudes and amplitude sensitivity. Furthermore, mean annual temperatures and thermal sensitivities increase exponentially with drainage area, which can be attributed to the accumulation of heat throughout the system. On the reach scale, daily stream temperature fluctuations or sensitivities were strongly influenced by land cover distribution, stream shading and runoff volume. Daily thermal sensitivities were low for headwater streams; peaked for intermediate reaches in the middle of the catchment and then decreased again further downstream with increasing drainage area. Combining spatially distributed time series of stream temperatures and EC with information about geology, landscape and climate provides insight into the underlying hydrological processes and allows for the identification of thermally sensitive regions and reaches.

Understanding similarity of groundwater systems with empirical copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaf, Ezra; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

Within the classification framework for groundwater systems that aims for identifying similarity of hydrogeological systems and transferring information from a well-observed to an ungauged system (Haaf and Barthel, 2015; Haaf and Barthel, 2016), we propose a copula-based method for describing groundwater-systems similarity. Copulas are an emerging method in hydrological sciences that make it possible to model the dependence structure of two groundwater level time series, independently of the effects of their marginal distributions. This study is based on Samaniego et al. (2010), which described an approach calculating dissimilarity measures from bivariate empirical copula densities of streamflow time series. Subsequently, streamflow is predicted in ungauged basins by transferring properties from similar catchments. The proposed approach is innovative because copula-based similarity has not yet been applied to groundwater systems. Here we estimate the pairwise dependence structure of 600 wells in Southern Germany using 10 years of weekly groundwater level observations. Based on these empirical copulas, dissimilarity measures are estimated, such as the copula's lower- and upper corner cumulated probability, copula-based Spearman's rank correlation - as proposed by Samaniego et al. (2010). For the characterization of groundwater systems, copula-based metrics are compared with dissimilarities obtained from precipitation signals corresponding to the presumed area of influence of each groundwater well. This promising approach provides a new tool for advancing similarity-based classification of groundwater system dynamics. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2015. Methods for assessing hydrogeological similarity and for classification of groundwater systems on the regional scale, EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria. Haaf, E., Barthel, R., 2016. An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria. Samaniego, L., Bardossy, A., Kumar, R., 2010. Streamflow prediction in ungauged catchments using copula-based dissimilarity measures. Water Resources Research, 46. DOI:10.1029/2008wr007695

Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, A.; Koussis, A. D.; Koutsoyiannis, D.; Mamassis, N.

2013-12-01

Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches, such as the rational formula and the SCS-CN method combined with the unit hydrograph theory that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.

Flash-Flood hydrological simulations at regional scale. Scale signature on road flooding vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquetin, Sandrine; Vannier, Olivier; Ollagnier, Mélody; Braud, Isabelle

2015-04-01

This work contributes to the evaluation of the dynamics of the human exposure during flash-flood events in the Mediterranean region. Understanding why and how the commuters modify their daily mobility in the Cévennes - Vivarais area (France) is the long-term objective of the study. To reach this objective, the methodology relies on three steps: i) evaluation of daily travel patterns, ii) reconstitution of road flooding events in the region based on hydrological simulation at regional scale in order to capture the time evolution and the intensity of flood and iii) identification of the daily fluctuation of the exposition according to road flooding scenarios and the time evolution of mobility patterns. This work deals with the second step. To do that, the physically based and non-calibrated hydrological model CVN (Vannier, 2013) is implemented to retrieve the hydrological signature of past flash-flood events in Southern France. Four past events are analyzed (September 2002; September 2005 (split in 2 different events); October 2008). Since the regional scale is investigated, the scales of the studied catchments range from few km2 to few hundreds of km2 where many catchments are ungauged. The evaluation is based on a multi-scale approach using complementary observations coming from post-flood experiments (for small and/or ungaugged catchments) and operational hydrological network (for larger catchments). The scales of risk (time and location of the road flooding) are also compared to observed data of road cuts. The discussion aims at improving our understanding on the hydrological processes associated with road flooding vulnerability. We specifically analyze runoff coefficient and the ratio between surface and groundwater flows at regional scale. The results show that on the overall, the three regional simulations provide good scores for the probability of detection and false alarms concerning road flooding (1600 points are analyzed for the whole region). Our evaluation procedure provides new insights on the active hydrological processes at small scales (catchments area < 10 km²) since these small scales, distributed over the whole region, are analyzed through road cuts data and post-flood field investigations. As shown in Vannier (2013), the signature of the altered geological layer is significant on the simulated discharges. For catchments under schisty geology, the simulated discharge, whatever the catchment size, is usually overestimated. Vannier, O, 2013, Apport de la modélisation hydrologique régionale à la compréhension des processus de crue en zone méditerranéenne, PhD-Thesis (in French), Grenoble University.

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then evaluated with contingency criteria (e.g., Critical Success Index, Probability Of Detection, Success Ratio) using operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France for the 2009-2012 period. The regionalised parameters of the distributed model were finally adjusted for each homogeneous hydrological area to optimize the Heidke skill score (HSS) calculated with three levels of warnings (2-, 10- and 50-year flood quantiles). This work is currently being implemented by the SCHAPI to set up an automated national flash flood warning system by 2016. Planned improvements include developing a unique continuous model to be run at a sub-hourly timestep, discharge assimilation, as well as integrating precipitation forecasts while accounting for the main sources of forecast uncertainty. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., and Arnaud, P. 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

National-Scale Hydrologic Classification & Agricultural Decision Support: A Multi-Scale Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coopersmith, E. J.; Minsker, B.; Sivapalan, M.

2012-12-01

Classification frameworks can help organize catchments exhibiting similarity in hydrologic and climatic terms. Focusing this assessment of "similarity" upon specific hydrologic signatures, in this case the annual regime curve, can facilitate the prediction of hydrologic responses. Agricultural decision-support over a diverse set of catchments throughout the United States depends upon successful modeling of the wetting/drying process without necessitating separate model calibration at every site where such insights are required. To this end, a holistic classification framework is developed to describe both climatic variability (humid vs. arid, winter rainfall vs. summer rainfall) and the draining, storing, and filtering behavior of any catchment, including ungauged or minimally gauged basins. At the national scale, over 400 catchments from the MOPEX database are analyzed to construct the classification system, with over 77% of these catchments ultimately falling into only six clusters. At individual locations, soil moisture models, receiving only rainfall as input, produce correlation values in excess of 0.9 with respect to observed soil moisture measurements. By deploying physical models for predicting soil moisture exclusively from precipitation that are calibrated at gauged locations, overlaying machine learning techniques to improve these estimates, then generalizing the calibration parameters for catchments in a given class, agronomic decision-support becomes available where it is needed rather than only where sensing data are located.lassifications of 428 U.S. catchments on the basis of hydrologic regime data, Coopersmith et al, 2012.

Regional estimation of response routine parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tøfte, Lena S.

2015-04-01

Reducing the number of calibration parameters is of a considerable advantage when area distributed hydrological models are to be calibrated, both due to equifinality and over-parameterization of the model in general, and for making the calibration process more efficient. A simple non-threshold response model for drainage in natural catchments based on among others Kirchner's article in WRR 2009 is implemented in the gridded hydrological model in the ENKI framework. This response model takes only the hydrogram into account; it has one state and two parameters, and is adapted to catchments that are dominated by terrain drainage. In former analyses of natural discharge series from a large number of catchments in different regions of Norway, we found that these response model parameters can be calculated from some known catchment characteristics, as catchment area and lake percentage, found in maps or data bases, meaning that the parameters can easily be found also for ungauged catchments. In the presented work from the EU project COMPLEX a large region in Mid-Norway containing 27 simulated catchments of different sizes and characteristics is calibrated. Results from two different calibration strategies are compared: 1) removing the response parameters from the calibration by calculating them in advance, based on the results from our former studies, and 2) including the response parameters in the calibration, both as maps with different values for each catchment, and as a constant number for the total region. The resulting simulation performances are compared and discussed.

Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling.

PubMed

Wheater, H S

2002-07-15

Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchment management. In this paper, the scientific context for fluvial flood modelling is discussed, current modelling capability is considered and research challenges are identified. Priorities include (i) appropriate representation of spatial precipitation, including scenarios of climate change; (ii) development of a national capability for continuous hydrological simulation of ungauged catchments; (iii) improved scientific understanding of impacts of agricultural land-use and land-management change, and the development of new modelling approaches to represent those impacts; (iv) improved representation of urban flooding, at both local and catchment scale; (v) appropriate parametrizations for hydraulic simulation of in-channel and flood-plain flows, assimilating available ground observations and remotely sensed data; and (vi) a flexible decision-support modelling framework, incorporating developments in computing, data availability, data assimilation and uncertainty analysis.

The role of climate on inter-annual variation in stream nitrate fluxes and concentrations.

PubMed

Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Aurousseau, Pierre; Durand, Patrick; Ruiz, Laurent; Molenat, Jérôme

2010-11-01

In recent decades, temporal variations in nitrate fluxes and concentrations in temperate rivers have resulted from the interaction of anthropogenic and climatic factors. The effect of climatic drivers remains unclear, while the relative importance of the drivers seems to be highly site dependent. This paper focuses on 2-6 year variations called meso-scale variations, and analyses the climatic drivers of these variations in a study site characterized by high N inputs from intensive animal farming systems and shallow aquifers with impervious bedrock in a temperate climate. Three approaches are developed: 1) an analysis of long-term records of nitrate fluxes and nitrate concentrations in 30 coastal rivers of Western France, which were well-marked by meso-scale cycles in the fluxes and concentration with a slight hysteresis; 2) a test of the climatic control using a lumped two-box model, which demonstrates that hydrological assumptions are sufficient to explain these meso-scale cycles; and 3) a model of nitrate fluxes and concentrations in two contrasted catchments subjected to recent mitigation measures, which analyses nitrate fluxes and concentrations in relation to N stored in groundwater. In coastal rivers, hydrological drivers (i.e., effective rainfall), and particularly the dynamics of the water table and rather stable nitrate concentration, explain the meso-scale cyclic patterns. In the headwater catchment, agricultural and hydrological drivers can interact according to their settings. The requirements to better distinguish the effect of climate and human changes in integrated water management are addressed: long-term monitoring, coupling the analysis and the modelling of large sets of catchments incorporating different sizes, land uses and environmental factors. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterising the hydrological regime of an ungauged temporary river system: a case study.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Ersilia; De Girolamo, Anna Maria; Barca, Emanuele; Ielpo, Pierina; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2017-06-01

Temporary streams are characterised by specific hydrological regimes, which influence ecosystem processes, groundwater and surface water interactions, sediment regime, nutrient delivery, water quality and ecological status. This paper presents a methodology to characterise and classify the regime of a temporary river in Southern Italy based on hydrological indicators (HIs) computed with long-term daily flow records. By using a principal component analysis (PCA), a set of non-redundant indices were identified describing the main characteristics of the hydrological regime in the study area. The indicators identified were the annual maximum 30- and 90-day mean (DH4 and DH5), the number of zero flow days (DL6), flow permanence (MF) and the 6-month seasonal predictability of dry periods (SD6). A methodology was also tested to estimate selected HIs in ungauged river reaches. Watershed characteristics such as catchment area, gauging station elevation, mean watershed slope, mean annual rainfall, land use, soil hydraulic conductivity and available water content were derived for each site. Selected indicators were then linked to the catchment characteristics using a regression analysis. Finally, MF and SD6 were used to classify the river reaches on the basis of their degree of intermittency. The methodology presented in this paper constitutes a useful tool for ecologists and water resource managers in the Water Framework Directive implementation process, which requires a characterisation of the hydrological regime and a 'river type' classification for all water bodies.

Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

2017-04-01

We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For such an approach has been used a methodology that consists of the application of a process-based geomorphological mapping, based on data derived from GIS analysis using high-resolution DEMs, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. Our integrated approach, which allows quantification of the flow rate and a semi-quantitative assessment of sediment that can be mobilized during hydro-meteorological events, is applied for the first time to torrential catchmenmts of the southern Apennines and may significantly contribute to previsional studies aimed at risk mitigation in the study region.

Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall inputs, and UKCP09 gridded daily rainfall data has been disaggregated using hourly records to analyse the implications of using realistic sub-daily variability. Furthermore, the development of a comprehensive dataset and computationally efficient means of setting up and running catchment models has allowed for examination of how a robust parameter scheme may be derived. This analysis has been based on collective parameterisation of multiple catchments in contrasting hydrological settings and subject to varied processes. 350 gauged catchments all over the UK have been simulated, and a robust set of parameters is being sought by examining the full range of hydrological processes and calibrating to a highly diverse flow data series. The modelling system will be used to generate flow time series based on historical input data and also downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) forecasts using the UKCP09 Weather Generator. This will allow for analysis of flow frequency and associated future changes, which cannot be determined from the instrumental record or from lumped parameter model outputs calibrated only to historical catchment behaviour. This work will be based on the existing and functional modelling system described following some further improvements to calibration, particularly regarding simulation of groundwater-dominated catchments.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter time steps. This study suggests that measures of hydrologic response quantified at these shorter time steps may provide a more robust basis for making predictions in applications of water resource management, model calibration and simulations, and human health and safety.

Factors influencing stream baseflow transit times in tropical montane watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Villers, Lyssette E.; Geissert, Daniel R.; Holwerda, Friso; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2016-04-01

Stream water mean transit time (MTT) is a fundamental hydrologic parameter that integrates the distribution of sources, flow paths, and storages present in catchments. However, in the tropics little MTT work has been carried out, despite its usefulness for providing important information on watershed functioning at different spatial scales in (largely) ungauged basins. In particular, very few studies have quantified stream MTTs or have related these to catchment characteristics in tropical montane regions. Here we examined topographic, land use/cover and soil hydraulic controls on baseflow transit times for nested catchments (0.1-34 km2) within a humid mountainous region, underlain by volcanic soil (Andisols) in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico). We used a 2-year record of bi-weekly isotopic composition of precipitation and stream baseflow data to estimate MTT. Land use/cover and topographic parameters (catchment area and form, drainage density, slope gradient and length) were derived from geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Soil water retention characteristics, and depth and permeability of the soil-bedrock interface were obtained from intensive field measurements and laboratory analysis. Results showed that baseflow MTTs ranged between 1.2 and 2.7 years across the 12 study catchments. Overall, MTTs across scales were mainly controlled by catchment slope and the permeability observed at the soil-bedrock interface. In association with topography, catchment form and the depth to the soil-bedrock interface were also identified as important features influencing baseflow MTTs. The greatest differences in MTTs were found both within groups of small (0.1-1.5 km2) and large (14-34 km2) catchments. Interestingly, the longest stream MTTs were found in the headwater cloud forest catchments.

Demonstrating the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for catchment modelling and characterisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starkey, Eleanor; Parkin, Geoff; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Large, Andy; Quinn, Paul; Gibson, Ceri

2017-05-01

Despite there being well-established meteorological and hydrometric monitoring networks in the UK, many smaller catchments remain ungauged. This leaves a challenge for characterisation, modelling, forecasting and management activities. Here we demonstrate the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for modelling and understanding catchment response as a contribution to catchment science. The scheme implemented within the 42 km2 Haltwhistle Burn catchment, a tributary of the River Tyne in northeast England, has harvested and used quantitative and qualitative observations from the public in a novel way to effectively capture spatial and temporal river response. Community-based rainfall, river level and flood observations have been successfully collected and quality-checked, and used to build and run a physically-based, spatially-distributed catchment model, SHETRAN. Model performance using different combinations of observations is tested against traditionally-derived hydrographs. Our results show how the local network of community-based observations alongside traditional sources of hydro-information supports characterisation of catchment response more accurately than using traditional observations alone over both spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate that these community-derived datasets are most valuable during local flash flood events, particularly towards peak discharge. This information is often missed or poorly represented by ground-based gauges, or significantly underestimated by rainfall radar, as this study clearly demonstrates. While community-based observations are less valuable during prolonged and widespread floods, or over longer hydrological periods of interest, they can still ground-truth existing traditional sources of catchment data to increase confidence during characterisation and management activities. Involvement of the public in data collection activities also encourages wider community engagement, and provides important information for catchment management.

Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

2017-09-01

The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly stream sample data, to elucidate high resolution catchment function, when appropriate calibration methods are used that correctly handle the inherent uncertainties.

Nonparametric methods for drought severity estimation at ungauged sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Burn, D. H.

2012-12-01

The objective in frequency analysis is, given extreme events such as drought severity or duration, to estimate the relationship between that event and the associated return periods at a catchment. Neural networks and other artificial intelligence approaches in function estimation and regression analysis are relatively new techniques in engineering, providing an attractive alternative to traditional statistical models. There are, however, few applications of neural networks and support vector machines in the area of severity quantile estimation for drought frequency analysis. In this paper, we compare three methods for this task: multiple linear regression, radial basis function neural networks, and least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). The area selected for this study includes 32 catchments in the Canadian Prairies. From each catchment drought severities are extracted and fitted to a Pearson type III distribution, which act as observed values. For each method-duration pair, we use a jackknife algorithm to produce estimated values at each site. The results from these three approaches are compared and analyzed, and it is found that LS-SVR provides the best quantile estimates and extrapolating capacity.

Global maps of streamflow characteristics based on observations from several thousand catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Hylke; van Dijk, Albert; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Streamflow (Q) estimation in ungauged catchments is one of the greatest challenges facing hydrologists. Observed Q from three to four thousand small-to-medium sized catchments (10-10000 km2) around the globe were used to train neural network ensembles to estimate Q characteristics based on climate and physiographic characteristics of the catchments. In total 17 Q characteristics were selected, including mean annual Q, baseflow index, and a number of flow percentiles. Testing coefficients of determination for the estimation of the Q characteristics ranged from 0.55 for the baseflow recession constant to 0.93 for the Q timing. Overall, climate indices dominated among the predictors. Predictors related to soils and geology were relatively unimportant, perhaps due to their data quality. The trained neural network ensembles were subsequently applied spatially over the entire ice-free land surface, resulting in global maps of the Q characteristics (0.125° resolution). These maps possess several unique features: they represent observation-driven estimates; are based on an unprecedentedly large set of catchments; and have associated uncertainty estimates. The maps can be used for various hydrological applications, including the diagnosis of macro-scale hydrological models. To demonstrate this, the produced maps were compared to equivalent maps derived from the simulated daily Q of four macro-scale hydrological models, highlighting various opportunities for improvement in model Q behavior. The produced dataset is available via http://water.jrc.ec.europa.eu.

Parameter dimensionality reduction of a conceptual model for streamflow prediction in Canadian, snowmelt dominated ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Richard; Poissant, Dominique; Brissette, François

2015-11-01

This paper evaluated the effects of parametric reduction of a hydrological model on five regionalization methods and 267 catchments in the province of Quebec, Canada. The Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis was used to rank the model parameters by their influence on the model results and sequential parameter fixing was performed. The reduction in parameter correlations improved parameter identifiability, however this improvement was found to be minimal and was not transposed in the regionalization mode. It was shown that 11 of the HSAMI models' 23 parameters could be fixed with little or no loss in regionalization skill. The main conclusions were that (1) the conceptual lumped models used in this study did not represent physical processes sufficiently well to warrant parameter reduction for physics-based regionalization methods for the Canadian basins examined and (2) catchment descriptors did not adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes, namely snow accumulation and melt.

Determinants of Tree Assemblage Composition at the Mesoscale within a Subtropical Eucalypt Forest

PubMed Central

Hero, Jean-Marc; Butler, Sarah A.; Lollback, Gregory W.; Castley, James G.

2014-01-01

A variety of environmental processes, including topography, edaphic and disturbance factors can influence vegetation composition. The relative influence of these patterns has been known to vary with scale, however, few studies have focused on environmental drivers of composition at the mesoscale. This study examined the relative importance of topography, catchment flow and soil in influencing tree assemblages in Karawatha Forest Park; a South-East Queensland subtropical eucalypt forest embedded in an urban matrix that is part of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network South-East Queensland Peri-urban SuperSite. Thirty-three LTER plots were surveyed at the mesoscale (909 ha), where all woody stems ≥1.3 m high rooted within plots were sampled. Vegetation was divided into three cohorts: small (≥1–10 cm DBH), intermediate (≥10–30 cm DBH), and large (≥30 cm DBH). Plot slope, aspect, elevation, catchment area and location and soil chemistry and structure were also measured. Ordinations and smooth surface modelling were used to determine drivers of vegetation assemblage in each cohort. Vegetation composition was highly variable among plots at the mesoscale (plots systematically placed at 500 m intervals). Elevation was strongly related to woody vegetation composition across all cohorts (R2: 0.69–0.75). Other topographic variables that explained a substantial amount of variation in composition were catchment area (R2: 0.43–0.45) and slope (R2: 0.23–0.61). Soil chemistry (R2: 0.09–0.75) was also associated with woody vegetation composition. While species composition differed substantially between cohorts, the environmental variables explaining composition did not. These results demonstrate the overriding importance of elevation and other topographic features in discriminating tree assemblage patterns irrespective of tree size. The importance of soil characteristics to tree assemblages was also influenced by topography, where ridge top sites were typically drier and had lower soil nutrient levels than riparian areas. PMID:25501866

A Flash Flood Study on the Small Montaneous River Catchments in Western Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Győri, Maria-Mihaela; Haidu, Ionel; Humbert, Joël

2013-04-01

The present study focuses on flash flood modeling on several mountaneous catchments situated in Western Romania by the use of two methodologies, when rainfall and catchment characteristics are known. Hence, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Method and the Rational Method will be employed for the generation of the 1%, 2% and 10% historical flash flood hydrographs on the basis of data spanning from 1989-2009. The SCS Method has been applied on the three gauged catchments in the study area: Petris, Troas and Monorostia making use of the existing interconnection between GIS and the rainfall-runoff models. The DEM, soil data and land use preprocessing in GIS allowed a determination of the hydrologic parameters needed for the rainfall-runoff model, with special emphasis on determining the time of concentration, Lag time and the weighted Curve Number according to Antecedent Moisture Conditions II, adapted for the Romanian territory. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model (Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling System) facilitates the historical 1%, 2% and 10% flash flood hydrograph generation for the three afore mentioned watersheds. The model is calibrated against measured streamflow data from the three existing gauging stations. The results show a good match between the resulted hydrographs and the observed hydrographs under the form of the Peak Weighted Error RMS values. The hydrographs generated by surface runoff on the ungauged catchments in the area is based on an automation of a workflow in GIS, built with ArcGIS Model Builder graphical interface, as a large part of the functions needed were available as ArcGIS tools. The several components of this model calculate: the runoff depth in mm, the runoff coefficient, the travel time and finally the discharge module which is an application of the rational method, allowing the discharge computation for every cell within the catchment. The result consists of discharges for each isochrones that will be subsequently interpolated in order to obtain the hydrograph of the historical flash floods. The two methodologies employed offer the hydrologist the opportunity of computing the historical hydrographs be it on a section of the river at choice, or for every affluent within the small river basins studied, the graphical data being easily accessed both in GIS and HEC-HMS. The peak discharge values of the main rivers as well as those of their tributaries are of great importance in establishing the hydrologic hazard under the form of floodplain maps that are inexistent for the studied watersheds. Key words: flash flood modeling, ungauged catchments, GIS, HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model. Aknowledgements This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/76841 with the title "Modern Doctoral Studies: Internationalization and Interdisciplinarity".

Development and application of a coupled bio-geochmical and hydrological model for point and non-point source river water pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohlert, T.

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper is to present recent developments of an integrated water- and N-balance model for the assessment of land use changes on water and N-fluxes for meso-scale river catchments. The semi-distributed water-balance model SWAT was coupled with algorithms of the bio-geochemical model DNDC as well as the model CropSyst. The new model that is further denoted as SWAT-N was tested with leaching data from a long- term lysimeter experiment as well as results from a 5-years sampling campaign that was conducted at the outlet of the meso-scale catchment of the River Dill (Germany). The model efficiency for N-load as well as the spatial representation of N-load along the river channel that was tested with results taken from longitudinal profiles show that the accuracy of the model has improved due to the integration of the aforementioned process-oriented models. After model development and model testing, SWAT-N was then used for the assessment of the EU agricultural policy (CAP reform) on land use change and consequent changes on N-fluxes within the Dill Catchment. giessen.de/geb/volltexte/2007/4531/

Regionalization of meso-scale physically based nitrogen modeling outputs to the macro-scale by the use of regression trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.

2012-06-01

In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).

Towards hydrochemical PUB - stable vs. heterogeneous NO3 and COD signatures across hydrographic structure and size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecrepont, Stephane; Cudennec, Christophe; Jaffrezic, Anne; de Lavenne, Alban

2017-04-01

Towards hydrochemical PUB - stable vs. heterogeneous NO3 and DOC signatures across hydrographic structure and size Ecrepont, S.1Cudennec, C.1 Jaffrézic, A.1 de Lavenne, A.2 1UMR SAS, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France 2 HBAN, Irstea, Antony, France Intensive agriculture is a major disturbing factor for water quality in Brittany, France. Observations of chemical data from 350 catchments over a 15 year period show that the high variability of hydrochemical dynamics between catchments in relation to geographic characteristics and farming practices, decreases with an increase in the catchment size. A stable signature of nitrate and DOC dynamics does emerge for bigger catchments, and was evidenced statistically. We adapted a modified version of the standard deviation formula to calculate an index on mean inter-annual winter nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to characterize each catchment. The method was applied to the whole sample of catchments, some of them nested, to investigate variation of our new index across scales and regions. Results show an increasing and non-linear relationship between the criterion and the surface, with threshold effects. The stability of the thresholds across river basins in Brittany, and across seasons and years is explored. This emergence relates to the progressive connection of streams with heterogeneous characteristic chemical signatures into a mixing dominant effect. The better assessment of this relationship opens two major perspectives: i) to define a geomorphology-based PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) approach for hydrochemistry; ii) to identify the most critical sub-catchments for mitigating actions in terms of farming and landscape practices towards water quality recovery.

Development of an analytical solution for the Budyko watershed parameter in terms of catchment physical features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaver, N.; Kaplan, D. A.; Jawitz, J. W.

2017-12-01

The Budyko hypothesis states that a catchment's long-term water and energy balances are dependent on two relatively easy to measure quantities: rainfall depth and potential evaporation. This hypothesis is expressed as a simple function, the Budyko equation, which allows for the prediction of a catchment's actual evapotranspiration and discharge from measured rainfall depth and potential evaporation, data which are widely available. However, the two main analytically derived forms of the Budyko equation contain a single unknown watershed parameter, whose value varies across catchments; variation in this parameter has been used to explain the hydrological behavior of different catchments. The watershed parameter is generally thought of as a lumped quantity that represents the influence of all catchment biophysical features (e.g. soil type and depth, vegetation type, timing of rainfall, etc). Previous work has shown that the parameter is statistically correlated with catchment properties, but an explicit expression has been elusive. While the watershed parameter can be determined empirically by fitting the Budyko equation to measured data in gauged catchments where actual evapotranspiration can be estimated, this limits the utility of the framework for predicting impacts to catchment hydrology due to changing climate and land use. In this study, we developed an analytical solution for the lumped catchment parameter for both forms of the Budyko equation. We combined these solutions with a statistical soil moisture model to obtain analytical solutions for the Budyko equation parameter as a function of measurable catchment physical features, including rooting depth, soil porosity, and soil wilting point. We tested the predictive power of these solutions using the U.S. catchments in the MOPEX database. We also compared the Budyko equation parameter estimates generated from our analytical solutions (i.e. predicted parameters) with those obtained through the calibration of the Budyko equation to discharge data (i.e. empirical parameters), and found good agreement. These results suggest that it is possible to predict the Budyko equation watershed parameter directly from physical features, even for ungauged catchments.

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

2014-12-01

Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

Global maps of streamflow characteristics based on observations from several thousand catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Hylke; de Roo, Ad; van Dijk, Albert

2016-04-01

Streamflow (Q) estimation in ungauged catchments is one of the greatest challenges facing hydrologists. Observed Q from three to four thousand small-to-medium sized catchments (10--10 000~km^2) around the globe were used to train neural network ensembles to estimate Q characteristics based on climate and physiographic characteristics of the catchments. In total 17 Q characteristics were selected, including mean annual Q, baseflow index, and a number of flow percentiles. Testing coefficients of determination for the estimation of the Q characteristics ranged from 0.55 for the baseflow recession constant to 0.93 for the Q timing. Overall, climate indices dominated among the predictors. Predictors related to soils and geology were relatively unimportant, perhaps due to their data quality. The trained neural network ensembles were subsequently applied spatially over the entire ice-free land surface, resulting in global maps of the Q characteristics (0.125° resolution). These maps possess several unique features: they represent observation-driven estimates; are based on an unprecedentedly large set of catchments; and have associated uncertainty estimates. The maps can be used for various hydrological applications, including the diagnosis of macro-scale hydrological models. To demonstrate this, the produced maps were compared to equivalent maps derived from the simulated daily Q of four macro-scale hydrological models, highlighting various opportunities for improvement in model Q behavior. The produced dataset is available via http://water.jrc.ec.europa.eu.

Assessing the hydropower potential of ungauged watersheds in Iceland using hydrological modeling and satellite retrieved snow cover images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David

2015-04-01

About 80% of the domestic energy production in Iceland comes from renewable energies. Hydropower accounts for about 20% this production, representing about 75% of the total electricity production in Iceland. In 2008 total electricity production from hydropower was about 12.5 TWh a-1, making Iceland a worldwide leader in hydropower production per capita. Furthermore, the total potential of hydroelectricity in Iceland is estimated to amount up to 220 TWh a-1. In this regard, hydrological modelling is an essential tool to adapt a sustainable management of water resources and estimate the potential of possible new sites for hydropower production. We used the conceptual lumped Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model (HBV) to estimate the potential of hydropower production in two remote areas in north-eastern Iceland (Leirdalshraun, a 274 km2 area above 595 m asl and Hafralónsá, a 946 km2 area above 235 m asl). The model parameters were determined by calibrating the model with discharge data from gauged sub catchments. Satellite snow cover images were used to constrain melt parameters of the model and assure adequate modelling of snow melt in the ungauged areas. This was particularly valuable to adequately estimate the contribution of snow melt, rainfall runoff and groundwater intrusion from glaciers outside the topographic boundaries of the selected watersheds. Runoff from the entire area potentially used for hydropower exploitation was estimated using the parameter sets of the gauged sub-catchments. Additionally, snow melt from the ungauged areas was validated with satellite based snow cover images, revealing a robust simulation of snow melt in the entire area. Based on the hydrological modelling the total amount of snow melt and rainfall runoff available in Leirdalshraun and Hafralónsá amounts up to 700 M m3 a-1 and 1000 M m3 a-1, respectively. These results reveal that the total hydropower potential of the two sites amounts up to 1.2 TWh a-1 hydroelectricity, accounting for about 10% of the current production in Iceland. These result are of eminent importance to embed sustainable and resilient based water management in discussions concerning future plans of national energy production.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Cross-entropy clustering framework for catchment classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tongal, Hakan; Sivakumar, Bellie

2017-09-01

There is an increasing interest in catchment classification and regionalization in hydrology, as they are useful for identification of appropriate model complexity and transfer of information from gauged catchments to ungauged ones, among others. This study introduces a nonlinear cross-entropy clustering (CEC) method for classification of catchments. The method specifically considers embedding dimension (m), sample entropy (SampEn), and coefficient of variation (CV) to represent dimensionality, complexity, and variability of the time series, respectively. The method is applied to daily streamflow time series from 217 gauging stations across Australia. The results suggest that a combination of linear and nonlinear parameters (i.e. m, SampEn, and CV), representing different aspects of the underlying dynamics of streamflows, could be useful for determining distinct patterns of flow generation mechanisms within a nonlinear clustering framework. For the 217 streamflow time series, nine hydrologically homogeneous clusters that have distinct patterns of flow regime characteristics and specific dominant hydrological attributes with different climatic features are obtained. Comparison of the results with those obtained using the widely employed k-means clustering method (which results in five clusters, with the loss of some information about the features of the clusters) suggests the superiority of the cross-entropy clustering method. The outcomes from this study provide a useful guideline for employing the nonlinear dynamic approaches based on hydrologic signatures and for gaining an improved understanding of streamflow variability at a large scale.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrate fluxes in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, C.; Musolff, A.; Strachauer, U.; Brauns, M.; Tarasova, L.; Merz, R.; Knoeller, K.

2017-12-01

Spatially and temporally variable and often superimposing processes like mobilization and turnover of N-species strongly affect nitrate fluxes at catchment outlets. It remains thus challenging to determine dominant nitrate sources to derive an effective river management. Here, we combine data sets from two spatially highly resolved key-date monitoring campaigns of nitrate fluxes along a mesoscale catchment in Germany with four years of monitoring data from two representative sites within the catchment. The study area is characterized by a strong land use gradient from pristine headwaters to lowland sub-catchments with intense agricultural land use and wastewater sources. Flow conditions were assessed by a hydrograph separation showing the clear dominance of base flow during both investigations. However, the absolute amounts of discharge differed significantly from each other (outlet: 1.42 m³ s-1 versus 0.43 m³ s-1). Nitrate concentration and flux in the headwater was found to be low. In contrast, nitrate loads further downstream originate from anthropogenic sources such as effluents from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and agricultural land use. The agricultural contribution did not vary in terms of nitrate concentration and isotopic signature between the years but in terms of flux. The contrasting amounts of discharge between the years led to a strongly increased relative wastewater contribution with decreasing discharge. This was mainly manifested in elevated δ18O-NO3- values downstream from the wastewater discharge. The four-year monitoring at two sides clearly indicates the chemostatic character of the agricultural N-source and its distinct, yet stable isotopic fingerprint. Denitrification was found to play no dominant role only for controlling nitrate loads in the river. The spatially highly resolved monitoring approach helped to accurately define hot spots of nitrate inputs into the stream while the long-term information allowed a classification of the results with respect to the seasonal N-dynamics in the catchment.

Parameter Set Cloning Based on Catchment Similarity for Large-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

2016-12-01

Parameter calibration is a crucial step to ensure the accuracy of hydrological models. However, streamflow gauges are not available everywhere for calibrating a large-scale hydrologic model globally. Thus, assigning parameters appropriately for regions where the calibration cannot be performed directly has been a challenge for large-scale hydrologic modeling. Here we propose a method to estimate the model parameters in ungauged regions based on the values obtained through calibration in areas where gauge observations are available. This parameter set cloning is performed according to a catchment similarity index, a weighted sum index based on four catchment characteristic attributes. These attributes are IPCC Climate Zone, Soil Texture, Land Cover, and Topographic Index. The catchments with calibrated parameter values are donors, while the uncalibrated catchments are candidates. Catchment characteristic analyses are first conducted for both donors and candidates. For each attribute, we compute a characteristic distance between donors and candidates. Next, for each candidate, weights are assigned to the four attributes such that higher weights are given to properties that are more directly linked to the hydrologic dominant processes. This will ensure that the parameter set cloning emphasizes the dominant hydrologic process in the region where the candidate is located. The catchment similarity index for each donor - candidate couple is then created as the sum of the weighted distance of the four properties. Finally, parameters are assigned to each candidate from the donor that is "most similar" (i.e. with the shortest weighted distance sum). For validation, we applied the proposed method to catchments where gauge observations are available, and compared simulated streamflows using the parameters cloned by other catchments to the results obtained by calibrating the hydrologic model directly using gauge data. The comparison shows good agreement between the two models for different river basins as we show here. This method has been applied globally to the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model using gauge observations obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC). As next step, more catchment properties can be taken into account to further improve the representation of catchment similarity.

Nested Tracer Studies In Catchment Hydrology: Towards A Multiscale Understanding of Runoff Generation and Catchment Funtioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulsby, C.; Rodgers, P.; Malcolm, I. A.; Dunn, S.

Geochemical and isotopic tracers have been shown to have widespread utility in catch- ment hydrology in terms of identifying hydrological source areas and characterising residence time distributions. In many cases application of tracer techniques has pro- vided insights into catchment functioning that could not be obtained from hydromet- ric and/or modelling studies alone. This paper will show how the use of tracers has contributed to an evolving perceptual model of hydrological pathways and runoff gen- eration processes in catchments in the Scottish highlands. In particular the paper will focus on the different insights that are gained at three different scales of analysis; (a) nested sub-catchments within a mesoscale (ca. 200 square kilometers) experimen- tal catchment; (b) hillslope-riparian interactions and (c) stream bed fluxes. Nested hydrometric and hydrochemical monitoring within the mesoscale Feugh catchment identified three main hydrological response units: (i) plateau peatlands which gener- ated saturation overland flow in the catchment headwaters, (ii) steep valley hillslopes which drain from the plateaux into (iii) alluvial and drift aquifers in the valley bottoms. End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) in 8 nested sub-catchments indicated that that stream water tracer concentrations can be modelled in terms of 2 dominant runoff pro- cesses; overland flow from the peat and groundwater from the drift aquifers. Ground- water contributions generally increased with catchment size, though this was moder- ated by the characteristics of individual sub-basins, with drift cover being particularly important. Hillslope riparian interactions were also examined using tracers, hydromet- ric data and a semi-distributed hydrological model. This revealed that in the glaciated, drift covered terrain of the Scottish highlands, extensive valley bottom aquifers effec- tively de-couple hillslope waters from the river channel. Thus, riparian groundwater appears to significantly contribute to storm runoff as well as sustain base flows. Water from steeper hillslopes appears to primarily recharge valley bottom aquifers. Fluxes from the drift aquifers into the stream bed were investigated using hydrometric and tracer techniques. Groundwater fluxes through the stream bed appear to be relatively localized relating to geological boundaries or changes in drift characteristics. How- ever, these fluxes are also controlled by morphological features in the river channel which exert a strong control on localized groundwater U surface water interactions. 1 If catchment hydrology is to contribute to a functional understanding of freshwater ecosystems it is argued that integrated tracer studies, at different scales and incorpo- rating both observations from field work and modelling applications, have a key role to play. 2

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Estimating catchment-scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Mengistu, Zelalem

2016-12-01

In this study, we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of catchment-scale storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff. The parameters are hence estimated prior to model calibration against runoff. The new storage routine is implemented in the parameter parsimonious distance distribution dynamics (DDD) model and has been tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevation and landscape type. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures (DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage) were compared. Little loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion of 0.73 was obtained using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.75 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion was 0.80 and 0.81 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recession characteristics was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine. The parameters of the proposed storage routine are found to be significantly correlated to catchment characteristics, which is potentially useful for predictions in ungauged basins.

Analytical estimation of annual runoff distribution in ungauged seasonally dry basins based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, D.; Deidda, R.; Viola, F.

2017-11-01

The assessment of the mean annual runoff and its interannual variability in a basin is the first and fundamental task for several activities related to water resources management and water quality analysis. The scarcity of observed runoff data is a common problem worldwide so that the runoff estimation in ungauged basins is still an open question. In this context, the main aim of this work is to propose and test a simple tool able to estimate the probability distribution of the annual surface runoff in ungauged river basins in arid and semi-arid areas using a simplified Fu's parameterization of the Budyko's curve at regional scale. Starting from a method recently developed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible inter-annual change in basin water storage, we here generalize the application to any catchment where the parameter of the Fu's curve is known. Specifically, we provide a closed-form expression of the annual runoff distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, and the Fu's parameter. The proposed method is based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation and allows calculating the probability density function of annual runoff in seasonally dry arid and semi-arid geographic context around the world by taking advantage of simple easy-to-find climatic data and the many studies with estimates of the Fu's parameter worldwide. The computational simplicity of the proposed tool makes it a valuable supporting tool in the field of water resources assessment for practitioners, regional agencies and authorities.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for flood estimation! A shift to new methods for flood estimation will not be taken lightly by practitioners. However, the standard for change is clear - can we develop new methods which give significant improvements in reliability over those existing methods which are demonstrably unsatisfactory?

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

How can streamflow and climate-landscape data be used to estimate baseflow mean response time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runrun; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Zhicai; Soulsby, Chris; Gao, Man

2018-02-01

Mean response time (MRT) is a metric describing the propagation of catchment hydraulic behavior that reflects both hydro-climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. To provide a comprehensive understanding of catchment response over a longer-time scale for hydraulic processes, the MRT function for baseflow generation was derived using an instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model that describes the subsurface response to effective rainfall inputs. IUH parameters were estimated based on the "match test" between the autocorrelation function (ACFs) derived from the filtered base flow time series and from the IUH parameters, under the GLUE framework. Regionalization of MRT was conducted using estimates and hydroclimate-landscape indices in 22 sub-basins of the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) in the Loess Plateau of northwest China. Results indicate there is strong equifinality in determination of the best parameter sets but the median values of the MRT estimates are relatively stable in the acceptable range of the parameters. MRTs vary markedly over the studied sub-basins, ranging from tens of days to more than a year. Climate, topography and geomorphology were identified as three first-order controls on recharge-baseflow response processes. Human activities involving the cultivation of permanent crops may elongate the baseflow MRT and hence increase the dynamic storage. Cross validation suggests the model can be used to estimate MRTs in ungauged catchments in similar regions of throughout the Loess Plateau. The proposed method provides a systematic approach for MRT estimation and regionalization in terms of hydroclimate and catchment characteristics, which is helpful in the sustainable water resources utilization and ecological protection in the Loess Plateau.

Assessment of Spatial Transferability of Process-Based Hydrological Model Parameters in Two Neighboring Catchments in the Himalayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepal, S.

2016-12-01

The spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process-oriented distributed J2000 hydrological model was investigated in two glaciated sub-catchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The basins had a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986-1991) and validated (1992-1997) in the Dudh Koshi sub-catchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001-2009). A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was carried out for both sub-catchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both sub-catchments, including baseflow and medium range flows (rising and recession limbs). The efficiency results according to both Nash-Sutcliffe and the coefficient of determination was above 0.84 in both cases. The sensitivity analysis showed that the same parameter was most sensitive for Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) and Log Nash-Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies in both catchments. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderate and low sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) result suggest that most of the time the observed runoff is within the parameter uncertainty range, although occasionally the values lie outside the uncertainty range, especially during flood peaks and more in the Tamor. This may be due to the limited input data resulting from the small number of precipitation stations and lack of representative stations in high-altitude areas, as well as to model structural uncertainty. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighboring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying process-based J2000 model be to the ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.

The relative influence of climate and catchment properties on hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel

2014-05-01

Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a high elevation, steep slopes, a high percentage of crystalline rock, bare rock and glacier. The conclusion of our research is that it is not straightforward to separate the effects of climate and catchment properties on drought, since they are interrelated. This is especially true for mountainous regions where temperature and precipitation are strongly dependent on altitude. We did however see that the duration of drought is more related to catchment storage (catchment properties) and the severity of drought (represented by the drought deficit) is more related to catchment wetness (climate). Van Loon, A.F., and Van Lanen, H.A.J.: A process-based typology of hydrological drought, Hydrology and Earth System Science, 16, p. 1915-1946, doi: 10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012, 2012

What Do They Have in Common? Physical Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes at Ungauged Locations in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Streamflow dynamics strongly influence anthropogenic activities and the ecological functions of riverine and riparian habitats. However, the widespread lack of direct discharge measurements often challenges the set-up of conscious and effective decision-making processes, including droughts and floods protection, water resources management and river restoration practices. By characterizing the spatial correlation of daily streamflow timeseries at two arbitrary locations, this study provides a method to evaluate how spatially variable catchment-scale hydrological process affects the resulting streamflow dynamics along and across river systems. In particular, streamflow spatial correlation is described analytically as a function of morphological, climatic and vegetation properties in the contributing catchments, building on a joint probabilistic description of flow dynamics at pairs of outlets. The approach enables an explicit linkage between similarities of flow dynamics and spatial patterns of hydrologically relevant features of climate and landscape. Therefore, the method is suited to explore spatial patterns of streamflow dynamics across geomorphoclimatic gradients. In particular, we show how the streamflow correlation can be used at the continental scale to individuate catchment pairs with similar hydrological dynamics, thereby providing a useful tool for the estimate of flow duration curves in poorly gauged areas.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Bodoque, José M.; Ballesteros, Juan A.

2010-06-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of Flash Floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés.; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; María Bodoque, José; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio

2010-05-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees (Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash-flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series, and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash-flood events during the last ~50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Hydrologic controls on equilibrium soil depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicótina, L.; Tarboton, D. G.; Tesfa, T. K.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-04-01

This paper deals with modeling the mutual feedbacks between runoff production and geomorphological processes and attributes that lead to patterns of equilibrium soil depth. Our primary goal is an attempt to describe spatial patterns of soil depth resulting from long-term interactions between hydrologic forcings and soil production, erosion, and sediment transport processes under the framework of landscape dynamic equilibrium. Another goal is to set the premises for exploiting the role of soil depths in shaping the hydrologic response of a catchment. The relevance of the study stems from the massive improvement in hydrologic predictions for ungauged basins that would be achieved by using directly soil depths derived from geomorphic features remotely measured and objectively manipulated. Hydrological processes are here described by explicitly accounting for local soil depths and detailed catchment topography. Geomorphological processes are described by means of well-studied geomorphic transport laws. The modeling approach is applied to the semiarid Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Boise, Idaho. Modeled soil depths are compared with field data obtained from an extensive survey of the catchment. Our results show the ability of the model to describe properly the mean soil depth and the broad features of the distribution of measured data. However, local comparisons show significant scatter whose origins are discussed.

Floods in mountain areas—an overview based on examples from Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, R.; Barben, M.; Spreafico, M.

2003-11-01

Mountains cover roughly one quarter of the planet's surface. Known as the Earth's water towers they produce a surplus of water that is transported to neighbouring lowlands via the vast river systems. Water as a vital benefit for life also holds dangers as a destructive element in the form of floods. The present paper, aims to discuss the basic aspects of floods in mountain areas and to illustrate them with examples of case studies, mainly from Switzerland. The hydrological characteristics of mountainous areas are described; the particular processes of flood generation in mountain areas, which should be taken into account. The last section is devoted to methods for estimating floods in ungauged catchments.

Modelling strategies to predict the multi-scale effects of rural land management change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C. E.; Jackson, B. M.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Reynolds, B.; Wheater, H. S.

2011-12-01

Changes to the rural landscape due to agricultural land management are ubiquitous, yet predicting the multi-scale effects of land management change on hydrological response remains an important scientific challenge. Much empirical research has been of little generic value due to inadequate design and funding of monitoring programmes, while the modelling issues challenge the capability of data-based, conceptual and physics-based modelling approaches. In this paper we report on a major UK research programme, motivated by a national need to quantify effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. Working with a consortium of farmers in upland Wales, a multi-scale experimental programme (from experimental plots to 2nd order catchments) was developed to address issues of upland agricultural intensification. This provided data support for a multi-scale modelling programme, in which highly detailed physics-based models were conditioned on the experimental data and used to explore effects of potential field-scale interventions. A meta-modelling strategy was developed to represent detailed modelling in a computationally-efficient manner for catchment-scale simulation; this allowed catchment-scale quantification of potential management options. For more general application to data-sparse areas, alternative approaches were needed. Physics-based models were developed for a range of upland management problems, including the restoration of drained peatlands, afforestation, and changing grazing practices. Their performance was explored using literature and surrogate data; although subject to high levels of uncertainty, important insights were obtained, of practical relevance to management decisions. In parallel, regionalised conceptual modelling was used to explore the potential of indices of catchment response, conditioned on readily-available catchment characteristics, to represent ungauged catchments subject to land management change. Although based in part on speculative relationships, significant predictive power was derived from this approach. Finally, using a formal Bayesian procedure, these different sources of information were combined with local flow data in a catchment-scale conceptual model application , i.e. using small-scale physical properties, regionalised signatures of flow and available flow measurements.

Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Derivation from regional analysis of streamflow recession curves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi

2014-07-21

Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall–runoff response, especially in steep terrain. Its contribution to total runoff is, however, poorly represented in the current generation of land surface models. The lack of physical basis of these common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation of the stormflow (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global land surface models. This paper is aimed at deriving regionalized parameterizations of the storage–discharge relationship relating to subsurface stormflow from a top–down empirical data analysis of streamflow recession curves extracted from 50 eastern United Statesmore » catchments. Detailed regression analyses were performed between parameters of the empirical storage–discharge relationships and the controlling climate, soil and topographic characteristics. The regression analyses performed on empirical recession curves at catchment scale indicated that the coefficient of the power-law form storage–discharge relationship is closely related to the catchment hydrologic characteristics, which is consistent with the hydraulic theory derived mainly at the hillslope scale. As for the exponent, besides the role of field scale soil hydraulic properties as suggested by hydraulic theory, it is found to be more strongly affected by climate (aridity) at the catchment scale. At a fundamental level these results point to the need for more detailed exploration of the co-dependence of soil, vegetation and topography with climate.« less

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro; Gioia, Andrea; Manfreda, Salvatore

2010-05-01

The investigation on hydrologic similarity represents one of the most exciting challenges faced by hydrologists in the last few years, in order to reduce uncertainty on flood prediction in ungauged basins (e.g., IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - Sivapalan et al., 2003). In perspective, the identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms may provide a strategy for catchment classification and identification hydrologically omogeneous regions. In this context, we exploited the framework of theoretically derived flood probability distributions, in order to interpret the physical behavior of real basins. Recent developments on theoretically derived distributions have highlighted that in a given basin different runoff processes may coexistence and modify or affect the shape of flood distributions. The identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms represents a key signatures of flood distributions providing an insight in hydrologic similarity. Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000) introduced a novel distribution of flood peak annual maxima, the "IF" distribution, which exploited the variable source area concept, coupled with a runoff threshold having scaling properties. More recently, Gioia et al (2008) introduced the Two Component-IF (TCIF) distribution, generalizing the IF distribution, based on two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. Indeed, ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, often responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered by severe rainfalls exceeding a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, we focused on the application of both models (IF and TCIF) over a considerable number of catchments belonging to different regions of Southern Italy. In particular, we stressed, as a case of strong general interest in the field of statistical hydrology, the role of procedures for parameters estimation and techniques for model selection in the case of nested distributions. References Gioia, A., V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, M. Fiorentino, Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1295-1307, 2008. Iacobellis, V., and M. Fiorentino (2000), Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal, Water Resour. Res., 36(2), 469-482. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.: IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857-880, 2003.

Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.

2009-04-01

Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

Estimating the SCS runoff curve number in forest catchments of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyung Tae; Kim, Jaehoon; Lim, Hong-geun

2016-04-01

To estimate flood runoff discharge is a very important work in design for many hydraulic structures in streams, rivers and lakes such as dams, bridges, culverts, and so on. So, many researchers have tried to develop better methods for estimating flood runoff discharge. The SCS runoff curve number is an empirical parameter determined by empirical analysis of runoff from small catchments and hillslope plots monitored by the USDA. This method is an efficient method for determining the approximate amount of runoff from a rainfall even in a particular area, and is very widely used all around the world. However, there is a quite difference between the conditions of Korea and USA in topography, geology and land use. Therefore, examinations in adaptability of the SCS runoff curve number need to raise the accuracy of runoff prediction using SCS runoff curve number method. The purpose of this study is to find the SCS runoff curve number based on the analysis of observed data from several experimental forest catchments monitored by the National Institute of Forest Science (NIFOS), as a pilot study to modify SCS runoff curve number for forest lands in Korea. Rainfall and runoff records observed in Gwangneung coniferous and broad leaves forests, Sinwol, Hwasoon, Gongju and Gyeongsan catchments were selected to analyze the variability of flood runoff coefficients during the last 5 years. This study shows that runoff curve numbers of the experimental forest catchments range from 55 to 65. SCS Runoff Curve number method is a widely used method for estimating design discharge for small ungauged watersheds. Therefore, this study can be helpful technically to estimate the discharge for forest watersheds in Korea with more accuracy.

Use of a geomorphological transfer function to model design floods in small hillside catchments in semiarid Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, S.; Cudennec, C.; Albergel, J.; Berndtsson, R.

2004-02-01

In the beginning of the 1990s, the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture launched an ambitious program for constructing small hillside reservoirs in the northern and central region of the country. At present, more than 720 reservoirs have been created. They consist of small compacted earth dams supplied with a horizontal overflow weir. Due to lack of hydrological data and the area's extreme floods, however, it is very difficult to design the overflow weirs. Also, catchments are very sensitive to erosion and the reservoirs are rapidly silted up. Consequently, prediction of flood volumes for important rainfall events becomes crucial. Few hydrological observations, however, exist for the catchment areas. For this purpose a geomorphological model methodology is presented to predict shape and volume of hydrographs for important floods. This model is built around a production function that defines the net storm rainfall (portion of rainfall during a storm which reaches a stream channel as direct runoff) from the total rainfall (observed rainfall in the catchment) and a transfer function based on the most complete possible definition of the surface drainage system. Observed rainfall during 5-min time steps was used in the model. The model runoff generation is based on surface drainage characteristics which can be easily extracted from maps. The model was applied to two representative experimental catchments in central Tunisia. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on surface topography and drainage network was seen to reproduce observed runoff satisfactory. The calibrated model was used to estimate runoff from 5, 10, 20, and 50 year rainfall return periods regarding runoff volume, maximum runoff, as well as the general shape of the runoff hydrograph. Practical conclusions to design hill reservoirs and to extrapolate results using this model methodology for ungauged small catchments in semiarid Tunisia are made.

Comparative estimation and assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for Flash Flood warning in Saxony

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luong, Thanh Thi; Kronenberg, Rico; Bernhofer, Christian; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels

2017-04-01

Flash Floods are known as highly destructive natural hazards due to their sudden appearance and severe consequences. In Saxony/Germany flash floods occur in small and medium catchments of low mountain ranges which are typically ungauged. Besides rainfall and orography, pre-event moisture is decisive, as it determines the available natural retention in the catchment. The Flash Flood Guidance concept according to WMO and Prof. Marco Borga (University of Padua) will be adapted to incorporate pre-event moisture in real-time flood forecast within the ESF EXTRUSO project (SAB-Nr. 100270097). To arrive at pre-event moisture for the complete area of the low mountain range with flash flood potential, a widely applicable, accurate but yet simple approach is needed. Here, we use radar precipitation as input time series, detailed orographic, land-use and soil information and a lumped parameter model to estimate the overall catchment soil moisture and potential retention. When combined with rainfall forecast and its intrinsic uncertainty, the approach allows to find the point in time when precipitation exceeds the retention potential of the catchment. Then, spatially distributed and complex hydrological modeling and additional measurements can be initiated. Assuming reasonable rainfall forecasts of 24 to 48hrs, this part can start up to two days in advance of the actual event. The lumped-parameter model BROOK90 is used and tested for well observed catchments. First, physical meaningful parameters (like albedo or soil porosity) a set according to standards and second, "free" parameters (like percentage of lateral flow) were calibrated objectively by PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) with the target on evapotranspiration and soil moisture which both have been measured at the study site Anchor Station Tharandt in Saxony/Germany. Finally, first results are presented for the Wernersbach catchment in Tharandt forest for main flood events in the 50-year gauging period since 1968.

Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

2013-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a re-thinking of how we, the catchment hydrologists, could become reliable forecasters. A group of catchment modellers predicted the hydrological response of a man-made 6 ha catchment in its initial phase (Chicken Creek) without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different model families. Their modelling experience differed largely. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the 1st prediction modellers received a basic data set describing the internal structure of the catchment (somewhat more complete than usually available to a priori predictions in ungauged catchments). They did not obtain time series of stream flow, soil moisture or groundwater response. (2) Before the 2nd improved prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and attended a workshop where the modellers presented and discussed their first attempts. (3) For their improved 3rd prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step 1. Here, we detail the modeller's decisions in accounting for the various processes based on what they learned during the field visit (step 2) and add the final outcome of step 3 when the modellers made use of additional data. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the 2nd and 3rd step, the progress in prediction quality could be evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of added information. We learned (i) that soft information such as the modeller's system understanding is as important as the model itself (hard information), (ii) that the sequence of modelling steps matters (field visit, interactions between differently experienced experts, choice of model, selection of available data, and methods for parameter guessing), and (iii) that added process understanding can be as efficient as adding data for improving parameters needed to satisfy model requirements.

Climate change impact on the discharge in meso-scale catchments and consequences for the hydropower-production in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, Ole; Hänggi, Pascal; Köplin, Nina; Meyer, Rapahel; Schädler, Bruno; Weingartner, Rolf

2013-04-01

The potential effect of climate change on hydrology is the acceleration of the hydrological cycle that in turn will likely cause changes in the discharge regime. As a result, socio-economic systems (e.g., tourism, hydropower industry) may be drastically affected. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the effect of climate change on different hydrological components like mean and low-flow levels, and drought stress in mesoscale catchments of Switzerland. In terms of mean flows approx. 200 catchments in Switzerland were simulated for the reference period 1984-2005 using the hydrological model PREVAH and projection for near (2025-2046) and far future (2074-2095) are based on delta-change values of 10 ENSEMBLES regional climate models assuming A1B emission scenario (CH2011 climate scenario data sets). We found seven distinct response types of catchments, each exhibiting a characteristic annual cycle of hydrologic change. A general pattern observed for all catchments, is the clearly decreasing summer runoff. Hence, within a second analysis of future discharge a special focus was set on summer low flow in a selection of 29 catchments in the Swiss Midlands. Low flows are critical as they have great implications on water usage and biodiversity. We re-calibrated the hydrological model PREVAH with a focus on base-flow and gauged discharge and used the aforementioned climate data sets and simulation time periods. We found low flow situations to be very likely to increase in both, magnitude and duration, especially in central and western Switzerland plateau. At third, the drought stress potential was analyzed by simulating the soil moisture level under climate change conditions in a high mountain catchment. We used the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH for this aspect as soil characteristics are much better represented in this model. Soil moisture in forests below 2000 m a.s.l. were found to be affected at most, which might have implication to their function as avalanche protection forests. However, we found high uncertainties related to the downscaling method applied. Finally, we analyzed the effect of changed discharge characteristics on the hydropower production by coupling the hydrological model BERNHYDRO with a hydropower management model. For the near future (until 2050), the results indicate that losses in the hydropower production during the summer can be compensated by benefit during winter. These different aspects of climate change impacts on the hydrosphere reveal a differentiated picture involving potentially threatened and widely unaffected catchments, hydrologic parameters and hydrologic constraints to the society.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An empirical method for approximating stream baseflow time series using groundwater table fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshgi, Ali; Schmitter, Petra; Babovic, Vladan; Chui, Ting Fong May

2014-11-01

Developing reliable methods to estimate stream baseflow has been a subject of interest due to its importance in catchment response and sustainable watershed management. However, to date, in the absence of complex numerical models, baseflow is most commonly estimated using statistically derived empirical approaches that do not directly incorporate physically-meaningful information. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools such as Genetic Programming (GP) offer unique capabilities to reduce the complexities of hydrological systems without losing relevant physical information. This study presents a simple-to-use empirical equation to estimate baseflow time series using GP so that minimal data is required and physical information is preserved. A groundwater numerical model was first adopted to simulate baseflow for a small semi-urban catchment (0.043 km2) located in Singapore. GP was then used to derive an empirical equation relating baseflow time series to time series of groundwater table fluctuations, which are relatively easily measured and are physically related to baseflow generation. The equation was then generalized for approximating baseflow in other catchments and validated for a larger vegetation-dominated basin located in the US (24 km2). Overall, this study used GP to propose a simple-to-use equation to predict baseflow time series based on only three parameters: minimum daily baseflow of the entire period, area of the catchment and groundwater table fluctuations. It serves as an alternative approach for baseflow estimation in un-gauged systems when only groundwater table and soil information is available, and is thus complementary to other methods that require discharge measurements.

Upstream structural management measures for an urban area flooding in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Bozoğlu, B.; Sürer, S.; Mumcu, H.

2015-06-01

In recent years, flooding has become an increasing concern across many parts of the world of both the general public and their governments. The climate change inducing more intense rainfall events occurring in short period of time lead flooding in rural and urban areas. In this study the flood modelling in an urbanized area, namely Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is performed. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2-dimensional shallow water flow modelling. 1 × 1000-1 scaled maps with the buildings for the urbanized area and 1 × 5000-1 scaled maps for the rural parts are used to obtain DTM needed in the flood modelling. The bathymetry of the river is obtained from additional surveys. The main river passing through the urbanized area has a capacity of 500 m3 s-1 according to the design discharge obtained by simple ungauged discharge estimation depending on catchment area only. The upstream structural base precautions against flooding are modelled. The effect of four main upstream catchments on the flooding in the downstream urban area are modelled as different scenarios. It is observed that if the flow from the upstream catchments can be retarded through a detention pond constructed in one of the upstream catchments, estimated Q100 flood can be conveyed by the river without overtopping from the river channel. The operation of the upstream detention ponds and the scenarios to convey Q500 without causing flooding are also presented. Structural management measures to address changes in flood characteristics in water management planning are discussed.

Assessment of surface water resources availability using catchment modelling and the results of tracer studies in the mesoscale Migina Catchment, Rwanda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munyaneza, O.; Mukubwa, A.; Maskey, S.; Uhlenbrook, S.; Wenninger, J.

2014-12-01

In the present study, we developed a catchment hydrological model which can be used to inform water resources planning and decision making for better management of the Migina Catchment (257.4 km2). The semi-distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - the Hydrologic Modelling System) (version 3.5) was used with its soil moisture accounting, unit hydrograph, liner reservoir (for baseflow) and Muskingum-Cunge (river routing) methods. We used rainfall data from 12 stations and streamflow data from 5 stations, which were collected as part of this study over a period of 2 years (May 2009 and June 2011). The catchment was divided into five sub-catchments. The model parameters were calibrated separately for each sub-catchment using the observed streamflow data. Calibration results obtained were found acceptable at four stations with a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index (NS) of 0.65 on daily runoff at the catchment outlet. Due to the lack of sufficient and reliable data for longer periods, a model validation was not undertaken. However, we used results from tracer-based hydrograph separation from a previous study to compare our model results in terms of the runoff components. The model performed reasonably well in simulating the total flow volume, peak flow and timing as well as the portion of direct runoff and baseflow. We observed considerable disparities in the parameters (e.g. groundwater storage) and runoff components across the five sub-catchments, which provided insights into the different hydrological processes on a sub-catchment scale. We conclude that such disparities justify the need to consider catchment subdivisions if such parameters and components of the water cycle are to form the base for decision making in water resources planning in the catchment.

Bias-correction of PERSIANN-CDR Extreme Precipitation Estimates Over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridzad, M.; Yang, T.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Ground-based precipitation measurements can be sparse or even nonexistent over remote regions which make it difficult for extreme event analysis. PERSIANN-CDR (CDR), with 30+ years of daily rainfall information, provides an opportunity to study precipitation for regions where ground measurements are limited. In this study, the use of CDR annual extreme precipitation for frequency analysis of extreme events over limited/ungauged basins is explored. The adjustment of CDR is implemented in two steps: (1) Calculated CDR bias correction factor at limited gauge locations based on the linear regression analysis of gauge and CDR annual maxima precipitation; and (2) Extend the bias correction factor to the locations where gauges are not available. The correction factors are estimated at gauge sites over various catchments, elevation zones, and climate regions and the results were generalized to ungauged sites based on regional and climatic similarity. Case studies were conducted on 20 basins with diverse climate and altitudes in the Eastern and Western US. Cross-validation reveals that the bias correction factors estimated on limited calibration data can be extended to regions with similar characteristics. The adjusted CDR estimates also outperform gauge interpolation on validation sites consistently. It is suggested that the CDR with bias adjustment has a potential for study frequency analysis of extreme events, especially for regions with limited gauge observations.

Distributed nitrate transport and reaction routines (NTR) inside the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) framework: Development and Application in the Selke catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Sumit; Rode, Michael; Kumar, Rohini; Yang, Xiaoqiang; Samaniego, Luis; Borchardt, Dietrich

2016-04-01

Precise measurements of where, when and how much denitrification occurs on the basis of measurements alone persist to be vexing and intractable research problem at all spatial and temporal scales. As a result, models have become essential and vital tools for furthering our current understanding of the processes that control denitrification on catchment scale. Emplacement of Water Framework Directive (WFD) and continued efforts in improving water treatment facilities has resulted in alleviating the problems associated with point sources of pollution. However, the problem of eutrophication still persists and is primarily associated with the diffused sources of pollution originating from agricultural area. In this study, the nitrate transport and reaction (NTR) routines are developed inside the distributed mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM www.ufz.de/mhm) which is a fully distributed hydrological model with a novel parameter regionalization scheme (Samaniego et al. 2010; Kumar et al. 2013) and has been applied to whole Europe (Rakovec et al. 2016) and numerous catchments worldwide. The aforementioned NTR model is applied to a mesoscale river basin, Selke (463 km2) located in central Germany. The NTR model takes in account the critical and pertinent processes like transformation in vadose zone, atmospheric deposition, plant uptake, instream denitrification and also simulates the process of manure and fertilizer application. Both streamflow routines and the NTR model are run on daily time steps. The split-sample approach was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (2000-2004). Flow dynamics at three gauging stations located inside this catchment are successfully captured by the model with consistently high Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of at least 0.8. Regarding nitrate estimates, the NSE values are greater than 0.7 for both validation and calibration periods. Finally, the NTR model is used for identifying the critical source areas (CSAs) that contribute significantly to nutrient pollution due to different local hydrological and topographical conditions. Postulations for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and further regionalization of key parameters of the NTR model are also investigated. References: Kumar, R., L. Samaniego, and S. Attinger (2013a), Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations, Water Resour. Res., 49, 360-379, doi:10.1029/2012WR012195. Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and S. Attinger (2010), Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Mai, J., Cuntz, M., Thober, S., Zink, M., Attinger, S., Schäfer, D., Schrön, M., Samaniego, L. (2016): Multiscale and multivariate evaluation of water fluxes and states over European river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 287-307, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0054.1.

Isotopic investigation of the discharge driven nitrogen dynamics in a mesoscale river catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christin; Zink, Matthias; Krieg, Ronald; Rode, Michael; Merz, Ralf; Knöller, Kay

2016-04-01

Nitrate in surface and groundwater has increased in the last decades due to landuse change, the application of different fertilizer for agricultural landuse and industrial dust in the atmospheric deposition. Increasing nitrate concentrations have a major impact on eutrophication, especially for coastal ecosystems. Therefore it is important to quantify potential nitrate sources and determine nitrate process dynamics with its drivers. The Bode River catchment (total size of 3200 m2) in the Harz Mountains in Germany was intensively investigated by a monitoring approach with 133 sampling points representing the same number of sub-catchments for a period of two years. The area is characterized by a strong anthropogenic gradient, with forest conservation areas in the mountain region, grassland, and intensively mixed farming in the lowlands. Consecutive discharge simulations by a mesoscale hydrological model (mhM) allow a quantitative analysis of nitrate fluxes for all observed tributaries. The investigation of nitrate isotopic signatures for characteristic landscape types allows the delineation of dominant NO3- sources: coniferous forests are characterized by recycled nitrified soil nitrogen; grassland is mainly impacted by organic fertilizer (manure) and nitrified soil-N; in agricultural land use areas nitrate predominantly derives from synthetic fertilizer application. Besides source delineation, the relationship between runoff and nitrate dynamics was analyzed for the entire Bode river catchment and, more detailed, for one major tributary with minor artificial reservoirs (Selke River). Thereby, it becomes apparent that nitrate isotopic variations increase with decreasing discharge. This effect might be due to a local, more intense impact of bacterial denitrification under low discharge conditions (higher residence time) in the anoxic soil zone, in the groundwater that discharges into the river and in the hyporheic zone. Generally, δ15N and δ18Oof nitrate decrease with increasing runoff, which can be caused by a preferential wash-out of more easily mobilizable, isotopically lighter fractions of the soil nitrate pool.

How young water fractions can delineate travel time distributions in contrasting catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutz, Stefanie; Zink, Matthias; Merz, Ralf

2017-04-01

Travel time distributions (TTDs) are crucial descriptors of flow and transport processes in catchments. Tracking fluxes of environmental tracers such as stable water isotopes offers a practicable method to determine TTDs. The mean transit time (MTT) is the most commonly reported statistic of TTDs; however, MTT assessments are prone to large aggregation biases resulting from spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity in real-world catchments. Recently, the young water fraction (Fyw) has been introduced as a more robust statistic that can be derived from seasonal tracer cycles. In this study, we aimed at improving the assessment of TTDs by using Fyw as additional information in lumped isotope models. First, we calculated Fyw from monthly δ18O-samples for 24 contrasting sub-catchments in a meso-scale catchment (3300 km2). Fyw ranged from 0.01 to 0.27 (mean= 0.11) and was not significantly correlated with catchment characteristics (e.g., mean slope, catchment area, and baseflow index) apart from the dominant soil type. Second, assuming gamma-shaped TTDs, we determined time-invariant TTDs for each sub-catchment by optimization of lumped isotope models using the convolution integral method. Whereas multiple optimization runs for the same sub-catchment showed a wide range of TTD parameters, the use of Fyw as additional information allowed constraining this range and thus improving the assessment of MTTs. Hence, the best model fit to observed isotope data might not be the desired solution, as the resulting TTD might define a young water fraction non-consistent with the tracer-cycle based Fyw. Given that the latter is a robust descriptor of fast-flow contribution, isotope models should instead aim at accurately describing both Fyw and the isotope time series in order to improve our understanding of flow and transport in catchments.

Scale effects on headwater catchment runoff timing, flow sources, and groundwater‐streamflow relations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGlynn, Brian L.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Seibert, Jan; Kendall, Carol

2004-01-01

The effects of catchment size and landscape organization on runoff generation are poorly understood. Little research has integrated hillslope and riparian runoff investigation across catchments of different sizes to decipher first‐order controls on runoff generation. We investigated the role of catchment sizes on riparian and hillslope dynamics based on hydrometric and tracer data observed at five scales ranging from trenched hillslope sections (55–285 m2) to a 280‐ha catchment at Maimai on the west coast of the South Island, New Zealand. The highly organized landscape is comprised of similar headwater catchments, regular geology, steep highly dissected topography, relatively consistent soil depths, and topographically controlled shallow through flow. We found a strong correlation between riparian zone groundwater levels and runoff for the headwaters, whereas the water tables in the valley bottom of the larger catchments were uncorrelated to runoff for 14 months of record. While there was no clear relationship between catchment size and new water contribution to runoff in the two storms analyzed in detail, lag times of tracer responses increased systematically with catchment size. The combination of hydrometric and tracer data allowed assessment of the runoff contributions from different parts of the landscape. Runoff was generated consistently in headwater riparian zones. This agreed also with the observed variations of tracer (18O and silica) responses for the different catchments. During wetter antecedent conditions or during larger events (>30 mm under dry antecedent conditions) hillslope and valley bottom floodplains did contribute to event runoff directly. We propose that analysis of landscape‐scale organization and the distribution of dominant landscape features provide a structure for investigation of runoff production and solute transport, especially as catchment‐scale increases from headwaters to the mesoscale.

Model swapping: A comparative performance signature for the prediction of flow duration curves in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamar, Muhammad Uzair; Azmat, Muhammad; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Shahid, Muhammad Adnan; Khushnood, Rao Arsalan; Ahmad, Sajjad

2016-10-01

The issue of lack of donor basins for prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins (PUB) is an important area of research that is not resolved in the literature. We present a distance based approach to predict FDCs at ungauged basins by quantifying the dissimilarity between FDCs and characteristics data of basins. This enables us to bracket hydrologically similar basins and thus allowing us to estimate FDCs at ungauged basins. Generally, a single regression model is selected to make hydrological estimates at an ungauged basin. Based on established laws and theories of hydrology, we work to devise a method to improve the output of selected model for an ungauged basin by swapping it with another model in case the latter gives better coverage and statistical estimates of the nearest neighbors of an ungauged basin. We report two examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of model swapping. Out of 124 basins used in analysis, 34 basins in example 1 and 41 basins in example 2 fulfill the set criteria of model swapping and subsequently their estimates are improved significantly.

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

Mapping hydrological signatures in the tropical Andes using a network of paired catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.; De Bièvre, B.

2016-12-01

The complexity and data scarcity of tropical Andean catchments make regional hydrological predictions very challenging. The strong spatiotemporal patterns of the local climate contrast with the inadequate coverage, especially of remote areas, by the national monitoring networks. We present an approach to regionalize the hydrological impacts of land-use and land-cover (LUC) using a network of 24 headwater catchments in a pairwise comparison approach. We monitored precipitation and streamflow through an informal partnership of stakeholders in the Andes, known as iMHEA. Using a `trading-space-for-time' approach, our design aims at strengthening the statistical significance of LUC signals. To test our hypothesis, we summarized the hydrological responses using a set of indices, which are then regionalized against catchment properties including land-use. Lastly, the regionalization model is then used to generate distributed maps of hydrological signatures in ungauged areas. Our results clearly reflect the dominant regional climate patterns of the tropical Andes and the associated wide spectrum of hydrological responses. Although the hydrological impacts of LUC are equally diverse, we find consistent trends within different biomes. Contrary to earlier studies, we find that incorporating LUC variables in the regionalization increases significantly the performance of the regression model and its predictive capacity, which makes it possible to generate regional maps that predict the dynamics and propagation of streamflow signatures in complex regions with an explicit report of uncertainty. We attribute the robust regionalization results to the regional pairwise setup that covers diverse physiographic characteristics, contrasting LUC types, and degrees of conservation/alteration. As such, it may be a useful strategy to optimize data collection, leverage commonly available geographical information, and understand the major controls of hydrological response in data-scarce regions.

Hydrologic Landscape Regionalisation Using Deductive Classification and Random Forests

PubMed Central

Brown, Stuart C.; Lester, Rebecca E.; Versace, Vincent L.; Fawcett, Jonathon; Laurenson, Laurie

2014-01-01

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents. PMID:25396410

Hydrologic landscape regionalisation using deductive classification and random forests.

PubMed

Brown, Stuart C; Lester, Rebecca E; Versace, Vincent L; Fawcett, Jonathon; Laurenson, Laurie

2014-01-01

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents.

Use of soil moisture dynamics and patterns for the investigation of runoff generation processes with emphasis on preferential flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blume, T.; Zehe, E.; Bronstert, A.

2007-08-01

Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeter-scale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a data-scarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths.

Use of soil moisture dynamics and patterns at different spatio-temporal scales for the investigation of subsurface flow processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blume, T.; Zehe, E.; Bronstert, A.

2009-07-01

Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and binary indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeter-scale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a data-scarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths.

Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash flood understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, I.; Ayral, P.-A.; Bouvier, C.; Branger, F.; Delrieu, G.; Le Coz, J.; Nord, G.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Anquetin, S.; Adamovic, M.; Andrieu, J.; Batiot, C.; Boudevillain, B.; Brunet, P.; Carreau, J.; Confoland, A.; Didon-Lescot, J.-F.; Domergue, J.-M.; Douvinet, J.; Dramais, G.; Freydier, R.; Gérard, S.; Huza, J.; Leblois, E.; Le Bourgeois, O.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Marchand, P.; Martin, P.; Nottale, L.; Patris, N.; Renard, B.; Seidel, J.-L.; Taupin, J.-D.; Vannier, O.; Vincendon, B.; Wijbrans, A.

2014-09-01

This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche) larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1) the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2) the small to medium catchment scale (1-100 km2), where the impact of the network structure and of the spatial variability of rainfall, landscape and initial soil moisture can be quantified; (3) the larger scale (100-1000 km2), where the river routing and flooding processes become important. These observations are part of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) enhanced observation period (EOP), which will last 4 years (2012-2015). In terms of hydrological modelling, the objective is to set up regional-scale models, while addressing small and generally ungauged catchments, which represent the scale of interest for flood risk assessment. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined and the models are used as "hypothesis testing" tools by coupling model development with data analyses in order to incrementally evaluate the validity of model hypotheses. The paper first presents the rationale behind the experimental set-up and the instrumentation itself. Second, we discuss the associated modelling strategy. Results illustrate the potential of the approach in advancing our understanding of flash flood processes on various scales.

Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash-flood understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, I.; Ayral, P.-A.; Bouvier, C.; Branger, F.; Delrieu, G.; Le Coz, J.; Nord, G.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Anquetin, S.; Adamovic, M.; Andrieu, J.; Batiot, C.; Boudevillain, B.; Brunet, P.; Carreau, J.; Confoland, A.; Didon-Lescot, J.-F.; Domergue, J.-M.; Douvinet, J.; Dramais, G.; Freydier, R.; Gérard, S.; Huza, J.; Leblois, E.; Le Bourgeois, O.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Marchand, P.; Martin, P.; Nottale, L.; Patris, N.; Renard, B.; Seidel, J.-L.; Taupin, J.-D.; Vannier, O.; Vincendon, B.; Wijbrans, A.

2014-02-01

This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche) larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1) the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2) the small to medium catchment scale (1-100 km2) where the impact of the network structure and of the spatial variability of rainfall, landscape and initial soil moisture can be quantified; (3) the larger scale (100-1000 km2) where the river routing and flooding processes become important. These observations are part of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) Enhanced Observation Period (EOP) and lasts four years (2012-2015). In terms of hydrological modelling the objective is to set up models at the regional scale, while addressing small and generally ungauged catchments, which is the scale of interest for flooding risk assessment. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined and the models are used as "hypothesis testing" tools by coupling model development with data analyses, in order to incrementally evaluate the validity of model hypotheses. The paper first presents the rationale behind the experimental set up and the instrumentation itself. Second, we discuss the associated modelling strategy. Results illustrate the potential of the approach in advancing our understanding of flash flood processes at various scales.

Simulation of Runoff Concentration on Arable Fields and the Impact of Adapted Tillage Practises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, F.; Disse, M.

2012-04-01

Conservational tillage can reduce runoff on arable fields. Due to crop residues remaining on the fields a seasonal constant ground cover is achieved. This additional soil cover not only decreases the drying of the topsoil but also reduces the mechanical impact of raindrops and the possibly resulting soil crust. Further implications of the mulch layer can be observed during heavy precipitation events and occurring surface runoff. The natural roughness of the ground surface is further increased and thus the flow velocity is decreased, resulting in an enhanced ability of runoff to infiltrate into the soil (so called Runon-Infiltration). The hydrological model system WaSiM-ETH hitherto simulates runoff concentration by a flow time grid in the catchment, which is derived from topographical features of the catchment during the preprocessing analysis. The retention of both surface runoff and interflow is modelled by a single reservoir in every discrete flow time zone until the outlet of a subcatchment is reached. For a more detailed analysis of the flow paths in catchments of the lower mesoscale (< 1 km2) the model was extended by a kinematic wave approach for the surface runoff concentration. This allows the simulation of small-scale variation in runoff generation and its temporal distribution in detail. Therefore the assessment of adapted tillage systems can be derived. On singular fields of the Scheyern research farm north-west of Munich it can be shown how different crops and tillage practises can influence runoff generation and concentration during single heavy precipitation events. From the simulation of individual events in agricultural areas of the lower mesoscale hydrologically susceptible areas can be identified and the positive impact of an adapted agricultural management on runoff generation and concentration can be quantifed.

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Sediment budgets of mountain catchments: Scale dependence and the influence of land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Förster, Helga; Dotterweich, Markus; Wunderlich, Jürgen

2010-05-01

Long-term sediment budgets of forested mountain catchments are scarcely investigated today. This is because they are traditionally expected to show few erosion features and low sediment delivery. This opinion originates from process-based hydrological studies proving the runoff preventing properties of trees and forest soils. In addition mountain areas have been colonized later and only sporadically compared to the fruitful loess-covered lowlands. On the other hand steep hillslopes, narrow valleys and the availability of regolith cause a high erosion potential. And there is evidence that historical floods and yearly occurring storms initiate intensive but local and sporadic erosion events. Sediment budgets from zero-order catchments of the Palatinate Forest in the south-western sandstone escarpment in Rhineland-Palatinate show spatially varying intensities of land use impact and relief conditions. The budgets are based on field data and a soilscape model of an upper periglacial cover bed with a homogenous thickness. OSL- and 14C-dates of colluvial deposits allow relating erosion events to land-use changes derived from historical maps and written archives. The presented case studies from the Palatinate Forest are of special interest as the high proximity to the loess-covered and intensively cultivated Rhine Graben effected settlement and land-use intensity in the mountain catchments. Clear cuts for settlements were joined by deforestation for agriculture and stretched mainly along the Haardtrand and high order valleys. Off these areas the strength of interference in the forest ecosystem depended on transport possibilities and distance to the Rhine Graben. In the vicinity strong devastation and clear cutting occurred. With increasing distance the felling intensity decreased and some parts seem to be nearly undisturbed until the 18th century. The needs for wood were controlled by the economical development as well as political decisions on local to European scale. The results from Palatinate Forest show that some of the cultural phases, which have been determined as main Holocene erosion phases in the Rhine Graben, did not extend to the mountain areas. The colluvial documentation of settlement history in small catchments directly connected to the Rhine Graben starts in the Neolithic Period but is not continual, while in those within the mountains colluvial layers older than modern times are missing. An inquiry of historical and modern storm events supports the requirements of local differentiation of sediment dynamics. On the meso-scale the sediment budget of the Speyerbach shows, that the output of the catchment is higher than the sedimentation within the catchment area. A diverse pattern occurs on the local scale: while the loess-covered subcatchments show a dominance of sedimentation, the steeper ones with narrow valleys shows an exceeding delivery to the output. As the latter ones are dominant in the Speyerbach catchment, the meso-scale catchment budget seems to be determined by the majority. Micro-scale diversity of land-use history therefore determines the sediment delivery rate of small mountain catchments and underlines the need for systematic archaeological research activities in mountain areas in Germany.

Assessment of surface water resources availability using catchment modeling and the results of tracer studies in the meso-scale Migina Catchment, Rwanda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munyaneza, O.; Mukubwa, A.; Maskey, S.; Wenninger, J.; Uhlenbrook, S.

2013-12-01

In the last couple of years, different hydrological research projects were undertaken in the Migina catchment (243.2 km2), a tributary of the Kagera river in Southern Rwanda. These projects were aimed to understand hydrological processes of the catchment using analytical and experimental approaches and to build a pilot case whose experience can be extended to other catchments in Rwanda. In the present study, we developed a hydrological model of the catchment, which can be used to inform water resources planning and decision making. The semi-distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS (version 3.5) was used with its soil moisture accounting, unit hydrograph, liner reservoir (for base flow) and Muskingum-Cunge (river routing) methods. We used rainfall data from 12 stations and streamflow data from 5 stations, which were collected as part of this study over a period of two years (May 2009 and June 2011). The catchment was divided into five sub-catchments each represented by one of the five observed streamflow gauges. The model parameters were calibrated separately for each sub-catchment using the observed streamflow data. Calibration results obtained were found acceptable at four stations with a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency of 0.65 on daily runoff at the catchment outlet. Due to the lack of sufficient and reliable data for longer periods, a model validation (split sample test) was not undertaken. However, we used results from tracer based hydrograph separation from a previous study to compare our model results in terms of the runoff components. It was shown that the model performed well in simulating the total flow volume, peak flow and timing as well as the portion of direct runoff and base flow. We observed considerable disparities in the parameters (e.g. groundwater storage) and runoff components across the five sub-catchments, that provided insights into the different hydrological processes at sub-catchment scale. We conclude that such disparities justify the need to consider catchment subdivisions, if such parameters and components of the water cycle are to form the base for decision making in water resources planning in the Migina catchment.

Assessing various approaches for flash flood forecasting in the Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) south-east Lyon, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, Isabelle; Breil, Pascal; Javelle, Pierre; Pejakovic, Nikola; Guérin, Stéphane

2017-04-01

The Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) is prone to flash floods leading to overflow in the downstream part of the catchment. A prevention and management plan has been approved and the set-up of a flood forecasting system is planned. The present study presents a comparison of several solutions for flood forecasting in the catchment. It is based on an extensive data collection (rain gauges, radar/rain gauge reanalyses, discharge and water level data) from this experimental catchment. A set of rainfall-runoff events leading to floods (problematic and non-problematic floods) was extracted and formed the basis for the definition of a first forecasting method. It is based on data analysis and the identification of explaining factors amongst the following: rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent rainfall, initial discharge. Several statistical methods including Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data and Classification and Regression Tree were used for this purpose. They showed that several classes of problematic floods can be identified. The first one is related to wet conditions characterized with high initial discharge and antecedent rainfall. The second class is driven by rainfall amount, initial discharge and rainfall intensity. Thresholds of these variables can be identified to provide a first warning. The second forecasting method assessed in the study is the system that will be operational in France in 2017, based on the AIGA method (Javelle et al., 2016). For this purpose, 18-year discharge simulation using the hydrological model of the AIGA method, forced using radar/rain gauges reanalysis were available at 44 locations within the catchment. The dates for which quantiles of a given return period were overtopped were identified and compared with the list of problematic events. The AIGA method was found relevant in identifying the most problematic events, but the lead time needs further investigation in order to assess the usefulness for population warning. References: Pierre Javelle, Didier Organde, Julie Demargne, Clotilde Saint-Martin, Céline de Saint-Aubin, Léa Garandeau and Bruno Janet (2016). Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method. E3S Web of Conferences 7, 18010 (2016), 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718010

‘As simple as possible but not simpler': What is useful in a temperature-based snow-accounting routine? Part 2 - Sensitivity analysis of the Cemaneige snow accounting routine on 380 catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valéry, Audrey; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles

2014-09-01

This paper investigates the degree of complexity required in a snow accounting routine to ultimately simulate flows at the catchment outlet. We present a simple, parsimonious and general snow accounting routine (SAR), called Cemaneige, that can be associated with any precipitation-runoff model to simulate discharge at the catchment scale. To get results of general applicability, this SAR was tested on a large set of 380 catchments from four countries (France, Switzerland, Sweden and Canada) and combined with four different hydrological models. Our results show that five basic features provide a good reliability and robustness to the SAR, namely considering: (1) a transition range of temperature for the determination of the solid fraction of precipitation; (2) five altitudinal bands of equal area for snow accumulation; (3) the cold-content of the snowpack (with a parameter controlling snowpack inertia); (4) a degree-day factor controlling snowmelt; (5) uneven snow distribution in each band. This general SAR includes two internal states (the snowpack and its cold-content). Results also indicate that only two free parameters (snowmelt factor and cold-content factor) are warranted in a SAR at the daily time step and that further complexity is not supported by improvements in flow simulation efficiency. To justify the reasons for considering the five features above, a sensitivity analysis comparing Cemaneige with other SAR versions is performed. It analyses the snow processes which should be selected or not to bring significant improvement in model performances. Compared with the six existing SARs presented in the companion article (Valéry et al., 2014) on the 380 catchments set, Cemaneige shows better performance on average than five of these six SARs. It provides performance similar to the sixth SAR (MORD4) but with only half its number of free parameters. However, CemaNeige still appears perfectible on mountainous catchments (France and Switzerland) where the lumped SAR, MORD4, outperforms Cemaneige. Cemaneige can easily be adapted for simulation on ungauged catchments: fixing its two parameters to default values much less degrades performances than the other best performing SAR. This may partly due to the Cemaneige parsimony.

Quantifying alteration of river flow regime by large reservoirs in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipriani, Thomas; Sauquet, Eric

2017-04-01

Reservoirs may highly modify river flow regime. Knowing the alterations is of importance to better understand the biological and physical patterns along the river network. However data are not necessary available to carry out an analysis of modifications at a national scale, e.g. due to industrial interests or to lack of measurements. The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in a set of hydrological indices due to large reservoirs in France combining different data sources. The analysis is based on a comparison between influenced discharges (observed discharges) and natural discharges available from: (i) gauging stations available upstream the dam, (ii) regionalization procedures (Sauquet et al., 2008; Sauquet et Catalogne, 2011; Cipriani et al., 2012), or (iii) historical data free from human influence close to the dam location. The impact of large reservoirs is assessed considering different facets of the river flow regime, including flood quantiles, low flow characteristics, quantiles from the flow duration curve and the twelve mean monthly discharges. The departures from the indice representative of natural conditions quantify the effect of the reservoir management on the river flow regime. The analysis is based on 62 study cases. Results show large spread in terms of impact depending on the purposes of the reservoirs and the season of interest. Results also point out inconsistencies in data (water balance between outflow and inflow, downstream of the dam is not warranted) due to uncertainties in mean monthly discharges and to the imperfect knowledge of inflows and outflows. Lastly, we suggest a typology of hydrological alterations based on the purposes of the reservoirs. Cipriani T., Toilliez T., Sauquet E. (2012). Estimating 10 year return period peak flows and flood durations at ungauged locations in France. La Houille Blanche, 4-5: 5-13, doi : 10.1051/lhb/2012024. Sauquet E., Catalogne C. (2011). Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 2421-2435, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011. Sauquet E., Gottschalk L., Krasovskaïa I. (2008). Estimating mean monthly runoff at ungauged locations: an application to France. Hydrology Research, 39(5-6): 403-423.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Water balance of a lake with floodplain buffering: Lake Tana, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessie, Mekete; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Adgo, Enyew; Deckers, Jozef; Poesen, Jean; Nyssen, Jan

2015-03-01

Lakes are very important components of the earth's hydrological cycle, providing a variety of services for humans and ecosystem functioning. For a sustainable use of lakes, a substantial body of knowledge on their water balance is vital. We present here a detailed daily water balance analysis for Lake Tana, the largest lake in Ethiopia and the source of the Blue Nile. Rainfall on the lake is determined by Thiessen polygon procedure, open water evaporation is estimated by the Penman-combination equation and observed inflows for the gauged catchments as well as outflow data at the two lake outlets are directly used. Runoff from ungauged catchments is estimated using a simple rainfall-runoff model and runoff coefficients. Hillslope catchments and floodplains are treated separately, which makes this study unique compared to previous water balance studies. Impact of the floodplain on the lake water balance is analyzed by conducting scenario-based studies. We found an average yearly abstraction of 420 × 106 m3 or 6% of river inflows to the lake by the floodplain in 2012 and 2013. Nearly 60% of the inflow to the lake is from the Gilgel Abay River. Simulated lake levels compare well with the observed lake levels (R2 = 0.95) and the water balance can be closed with a closure error of 82 mm/year (3.5% of the total lake inflow). This study demonstrates the importance of floodplains and their influence on the water balance of the lake and the need of incorporating the effects of floodplains and water abstraction for irrigation to improve predictions.

Comparison of the new intermediate complex atmospheric research (ICAR) model with the WRF model in a mesoscale catchment in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Härer, Stefan; Bernhardt, Matthias; Gutmann, Ethan; Bauer, Hans-Stefan; Schulz, Karsten

2017-04-01

Until recently, a large gap existed in the atmospheric downscaling strategies. On the one hand, computationally efficient statistical approaches are widely used, on the other hand, dynamic but CPU-intensive numeric atmospheric models like the weather research and forecast (WRF) model exist. The intermediate complex atmospheric research (ICAR) model developed at NCAR (Boulder, Colorado, USA) addresses this gap by combining the strengths of both approaches: the process-based structure of a dynamic model and its applicability in a changing climate as well as the speed of a parsimonious modelling approach which facilitates the modelling of ensembles and a straightforward way to test new parametrization schemes as well as various input data sources. However, the ICAR model has not been tested in Europe and on slightly undulated terrain yet. This study now evaluates for the first time the ICAR model to WRF model runs in Central Europe comparing a complete year of model results in the mesoscale Attert catchment (Luxembourg). In addition to these modelling results, we also describe the first implementation of ICAR on an Intel Phi architecture and consequently perform speed tests between the Vienna cluster, a standard workstation and the use of an Intel Phi coprocessor. Finally, the study gives an outlook on sensitivity studies using slightly different input data sources.

Environmental Energy and Mass Transfer: Key to Understanding Catchment Evolution (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A.; Rasmussen, C.; Broxton, P. D.; Heidbuechel, I.

2010-12-01

While a lot is now known about catchment behavior of many study sites around the world, the ability to generalize these findings for predictions in unmonitored sites remains difficult. This is largely due to the fact that the link between climate, hydrologic response and how the landscape is structured is poorly understood. Notwithstanding, such understanding is fundamental to advancing new hydrological theory and useful model structures that can be used in ungauged sites. In this paper we will present a theoretical framework based on open systems thermodynamics to study catchment evolution. This framework is referred to as Environmental Energy and Mass Transfer (EEMT) and relates long-term energy and mass fluxes through the catchment to its internal structure and functioning. We will illustrate this concept using recent results from field investigations in two semi-arid environments in southwest USA:, the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP) near Los Alamos, NM and the Santa Catalina Mountains (SCM) near Tucson, AZ. In VCNP we have designed an experiment that involves calculating transit times for a number of catchments that drain from a large dome called Redondo Peak. These catchments have different orientations and therefore receive different amounts of solar radiation. In general, we found that there was a correlation between mean transit times and aspect for these streams. At the same time, other topographic characteristics, which are typically considered as controls over catchment mean transit times, such as catchment area, elevation, and the ratio of flowpath length to slope gradient, exhibit limited predictive power with respect to mean transit times. The relationship between mean transit times and aspect suggests that in the Valles Caldera, transit times might be affected by a variety of features that are influenced by aspect, such as slope steepness, vegetation patterns, and soil depth. In SCM we have monitored the hydrological response in two hillslopes since 2006 using an array of hydrometric and hydrochemical instruments, in an attempt to estimate the mean transit time of water in those hillslopes. The two hillslope are different in their lithology (granite versus schist) and plan form (oval versus V-shaped), but receive on average the same amount of energy because they are both north facing. We find that the granite-oval hillslope has a mean transit time 5 times shorter than the schist-V-shaped hillslope. The parent material and the prevailing climate are responsible for very different soil characteristics and thus storage capacities, leading to important differences in transit time distributions, illustrating how geology leaves fingerprints on catchment’s evolution.

Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

PubMed

Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

2016-01-01

The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important role in modifying the cycles of water and sediment yields in Mediterranean mountain catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially Distributed Characterization of Catchment Dynamics Using Travel-Time Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heße, F.; Zink, M.; Attinger, S.

2015-12-01

The description of storage and transport of both water and solved contaminants in catchments is very difficult due to the high heterogeneity of the subsurface properties that govern their fate. This heterogeneity, combined with a generally limited knowledge about the subsurface, results in high degrees of uncertainty. As a result, stochastic methods are increasingly applied, where the relevant processes are modeled as being random. Within these methods, quantities like the catchment travel or residence time of a water parcel are described using probability density functions (PDF). The derivation of these PDF's is typically done by using the water fluxes and states of the catchment. A successful application of such frameworks is therefore contingent on a good quantification of these fluxes and states across the different spatial scales. The objective of this study is to use travel times for the characterization of an ca. 1000 square kilometer, humid catchment in Central Germany. To determine the states and fluxes, we apply the mesoscale Hydrological Model mHM, a spatially distributed hydrological model to the catchment. Using detailed data of precipitation, land cover, morphology and soil type as inputs, mHM is able to determine fluxes like recharge and evapotranspiration and states like soil moisture as outputs. Using these data, we apply the above theoretical framework to our catchment. By virtue of the aforementioned properties of mHM, we are able to describe the storage and release of water with a high spatial resolution. This allows for a comprehensive description of the flow and transport dynamics taking place in the catchment. The spatial distribution of such dynamics is then compared with land cover and soil moisture maps as well as driving forces like precipitation and temperature to determine the most predictive factors. In addition, we investigate how non-local data like the age distribution of discharge flows are impacted by, and therefore allow to infer, local properties of the catchment.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

PubMed

Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-02-01

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupling Evapotranspiration and Watershed Storage to Assess the Impact of Forest Disturbance on Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brena Naranjo, J.; Stahl, K.; Weiler, M.

2009-05-01

Low flows are important for water-supply planning and design, and maintenance of quantity and quality of water for irrigation, recreation, and fish and wildlife conservation. There have been concerns recently that climate warming and land cover changes due to an unprecedented pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia, Canada, may cause a deterioration of water quantity during low flow periods and at certain times may become a hazard to ecosystem and to water management schemes. A study to characterize the sensitivity of the low flow regimes was performed for several mainly forested catchments located within the Fraser River basin. Here, summer low flows are maintained through the release of water from groundwater and riparian storage, lakes and wetlands, but are reduced by high evapotranspiration rates in the catchments. Since evapotranspiration in British Columbia accounts around 40% of the precipitation, the first part of this work was focused on the assessment of the relationship between the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the actual evapotranspiration (AET) for undisturbed and disturbed landscapes which is expected to influence the hydrological behavior during the low-flow season. Through its influence on evapotranspiration, forest age appears to play an important role in the water balance. The second part of the study implemented a forest age dependent calculation of AET into a parsimonious water balance model, which was applied to simulate the sensitivity of the flow regimes of 15 non regulated watersheds to changes after the beginning of the pine beetle epidemic at a large scale. The model input was derived from disaggregated gridded 30-year climate normals. Since the geologic and topographic properties are first order controls on water storage and release of the examined catchments a framework for regionalization of these properties into ungauged catchments was developed. Furthermore, the interaction between forest disturbance and evapotranspiration may help to predict the magnitude and timing response of low flows -among others- to environmental changes as well as the temporal scales of biogeochemical cycling.

Geostatistical enhancement of european hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Parajka, Juraj; Arheimer, Berit; Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Montanari, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Geostatistical Enhancement of European Hydrological Prediction (GEEHP) is a research experiment developed within the EU funded SWITCH-ON project, which proposes to conduct comparative experiments in a virtual laboratory in order to share water-related information and tackle changes in the hydrosphere for operational needs (http://www.water-switch-on.eu). The main objective of GEEHP deals with the prediction of streamflow indices and signatures in ungauged basins at different spatial scales. In particular, among several possible hydrological signatures we focus in our experiment on the prediction of flow-duration curves (FDCs) along the stream-network, which has attracted an increasing scientific attention in the last decades due to the large number of practical and technical applications of the curves (e.g. hydropower potential estimation, riverine habitat suitability and ecological assessments, etc.). We apply a geostatistical procedure based on Top-kriging, which has been recently shown to be particularly reliable and easy-to-use regionalization approach, employing two different type of streamflow data: pan-European E-HYPE simulations (http://hypeweb.smhi.se/europehype) and observed daily streamflow series collected in two pilot study regions, i.e. Tyrol (merging data from Austrian and Italian stream gauging networks) and Sweden. The merger of the two study regions results in a rather large area (~450000 km2) and might be considered as a proxy for a pan-European application of the approach. In a first phase, we implement a bidirectional validation, i.e. E-HYPE catchments are set as training sites to predict FDCs at the same sites where observed data are available, and vice-versa. Such a validation procedure reveals (1) the usability of the proposed approach for predicting the FDCs over the entire river network of interest using alternatively observed data and E-HYPE simulations and (2) the accuracy of E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs in ungauged sites. In a second phase, we develop a module, to be added to the flow-duration curve prediction framework, capable of enhancing E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs by modelling the residuals obtained from the first phase. Among all possible methods, we apply geostatistical modelling of residuals and, alternatively, regional regression, so that residuals between empirical and E-HYPE-base predicted FDCs are described in terms of geomorphological and climatic catchment descriptors.

Contextualising impacts of logging on tropical rainforest catchment sediment dynamics using the stratigraphic record of in-channel bench deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Will; Walsh, Rory; Bidin, Kawi; Annammala, Kogila

2015-04-01

It is widely recognised that commercial logging and conversion of tropical rainforest to oil palm plantation leads to enhanced fluvial sediment flux to the coastal zone but the dynamics of delivery and mechanisms that act to retain sediment and nutrients within rainforest ecosystems, e.g. riparian zone and floodplain storage, are poorly understood and underexploited as a management tool. While accretion of lateral in-channel bench deposits in response to forest clearance has been demonstrated in temperate landscapes, their development and value as sedimentary archives of catchment response to human disturbance remains largely unexplored in tropical rainforest river systems. Working within the Segama River basin, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this study aimed to test the hypothesis that (1) lateral bench development in tropical rainforest rivers systems is enhanced by upstream catchment disturbance and that (2) the sedimentary record of these deposits can be used to infer changes in sediment provenance and intensification of sediment flux associated with logging activities. Sediment cores were taken from in-channel bench deposits with upstream catchment contributing areas of 721 km2 and 2800 km2 respectively. Accretion rates were determined using fallout 210Pb and 137Cs and the timing of peak accumulation was shown to correspond exactly with the known temporal pattern of logging and associated fluvial sediment response over the period 1980 to present following low pre-logging rates. Major and minor element geochemistry of deposits was used to assess the degree of weathering that deposited sediment had experienced. This was linked to surface (heavily weathered) and subsurface (less weathered) sediment sources relating to initial disturbance by logging and post-logging landsliding responses respectively. A shift in the dominant source of deposited material from surface (i.e. topsoil) to subsurface (i.e. relatively unweathered subsoil close to bedrock) origin was observed to coincide with the increase in accretion rates following logging of steep headwater slopes. Coherence of sedimentary, monitoring and observational evidence demonstrates that in-channel bench deposits offer a previously unexplored sedimentary archive of catchment response to logging in tropical rainforest systems and a tool for evaluating the erosional responses of ungauged basins. In-channel bench development due to catchment disturbance may augment ecosystem services provided by the riparian corridors of larger rivers and process knowledge gained from sedimentary archives can be used to underpin future riparian and catchment forest management strategies.

A framework for streamflow prediction in the world's most severely data-limited regions: Test of applicability and performance in a poorly-gauged region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M. H.; Kibler, Kelly M.

2018-02-01

A framework methodology is proposed for streamflow prediction in poorly-gauged rivers located within large-scale regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation. A multi-criteria model evaluation is developed to select models that balance runoff efficiency with selection of accurate parameter values. Sparse observed data are supplemented by uncertain or low-resolution information, incorporated as 'soft' data, to estimate parameter values a priori. Model performance is tested in two catchments within a data-poor region of southwestern China, and results are compared to models selected using alternative calibration methods. While all models perform consistently with respect to runoff efficiency (NSE range of 0.67-0.78), models selected using the proposed multi-objective method may incorporate more representative parameter values than those selected by traditional calibration. Notably, parameter values estimated by the proposed method resonate with direct estimates of catchment subsurface storage capacity (parameter residuals of 20 and 61 mm for maximum soil moisture capacity (Cmax), and 0.91 and 0.48 for soil moisture distribution shape factor (B); where a parameter residual is equal to the centroid of a soft parameter value minus the calibrated parameter value). A model more traditionally calibrated to observed data only (single-objective model) estimates a much lower soil moisture capacity (residuals of Cmax = 475 and 518 mm and B = 1.24 and 0.7). A constrained single-objective model also underestimates maximum soil moisture capacity relative to a priori estimates (residuals of Cmax = 246 and 289 mm). The proposed method may allow managers to more confidently transfer calibrated models to ungauged catchments for streamflow predictions, even in the world's most data-limited regions.

Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

2016-04-01

A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

How much expert knowledge is it worth to put in conceptual hydrological models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonetti, Manuel; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Both modellers and experimentalists agree on using expert knowledge to improve our conceptual hydrological simulations on ungauged basins. However, they use expert knowledge differently for both hydrologically mapping the landscape and parameterising a given hydrological model. Modellers use generally very simplified (e.g. topography-based) mapping approaches and put most of the knowledge for constraining the model by defining parameter and process relational rules. In contrast, experimentalists tend to invest all their detailed and qualitative knowledge about processes to obtain a spatial distribution of areas with different dominant runoff generation processes (DRPs) as realistic as possible, and for defining plausible narrow value ranges for each model parameter. Since, most of the times, the modelling goal is exclusively to simulate runoff at a specific site, even strongly simplified hydrological classifications can lead to satisfying results due to equifinality of hydrological models, overfitting problems and the numerous uncertainty sources affecting runoff simulations. Therefore, to test to which extent expert knowledge can improve simulation results under uncertainty, we applied a typical modellers' modelling framework relying on parameter and process constraints defined based on expert knowledge to several catchments on the Swiss Plateau. To map the spatial distribution of the DRPs, mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge were used. Simulation results highlighted the potential added value of using all the expert knowledge available on a catchment. Also, combinations of event types and landscapes, where even a simplified mapping approach can lead to satisfying results, were identified. Finally, the uncertainty originated by the different mapping approaches was compared with the one linked to meteorological input data and catchment initial conditions.

Geomorphology and landscape organization of a northern peatland complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, M. C.

2012-12-01

The geomorphic evolution of northern peatlands is governed by complex ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and associated hydro-climatic drivers. For example, prevailing models of bog development (i.e. Ingram's groundwater mounding hypothesis and variants) attempt to explicitly link bog dome characteristics to the regional climate based on analytical and numerical models of lateral groundwater flow and the first-order control of water table position on rates of peat accumulation. In this talk I will present new results from quantitative geomorphic analyses of a northern peatland complex at the De Beers Victor diamond mine site in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario. This work capitalizes on spatially-extensive, high-resolution topographic (LiDAR) data to rigorously test analytical and numerical models of bog dome development in this landscape. The analysis and discussion are then expanded beyond individual bog formations to more broadly consider ecohydrological drivers of landscape organization, with implications for understanding and modeling catchment-scale runoff response. Results show that in this landscape, drainage patterns exhibit relatively well-organized characteristics consistent with observed runoff responses in six gauged research catchments. Interpreted together, the results of these geomorphic and hydrologic analyses help refine our understanding of water balance partitioning among different landcover types within northern peatland complexes. These findings can be used to help guide the development of appropriate numerical model structures for hydrologic prediction in ungauged peatland basins of northern Canada.

Impact of land use, soil and DEM databases on surface runoff assessment with GIS decision support tool: A study case on the Briançon vineyard catchment (Gard, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regazzoni, C.; Payraudeau, S.

2012-04-01

Runoff and associated erosion represent a primary mode of mobilization and transfer of pesticides from agricultural lands to watercourses and groundwater. The pesticides toxicity is potentially higher at the headwater catchment scale. These catchments are usually ungauged and characterized by temporary streams. Several mitigation strategies and management practices are currently used to mitigate the pesticides mixtures in agro-ecosystems. Among those practices, Stormwater Wetlands (SW) could be implemented to store surface runoff and to mitigate pesticides loads. The implementation of New Potential Stormwater Wetlands (NPSW) requires a diagnosis of intermittent runoff at the headwater catchment scale. The main difficulty to perform this diagnosis at the headwater catchment scale is to spatially characterize with enough accuracy the landscape components. Indeed, fields and field margins enhance or decrease the runoff and determine the pathways of hortonian overland flow. Land use, soil and Digital Elevation Model databases are systematically used. The question of the respective weight of each of these databases on the uncertainty of the diagnostic results is rarely analyzed at the headwater catchment scale. Therefore, this work focused (i) on the uncertainties of each of these databases and their propagation on the hortonian overland flow modelling, (ii) the methods to improve the accuracy of each database, (iii) the propagation of the databases uncertainties on intermittent runoff modelling and (iv) the impact of modelling cell size on the diagnosis. The model developed was a raster approach of the SCS-CN method integrating re-infiltration processes. The uncertainty propagation was analyzed on the Briançon vineyard catchment (Gard, France, 1400 ha). Based on this study site, the results showed that the geographic and thematic accuracies of regional soil database (1:250 000) were insufficient to correctly simulate the hortonian overland flow. These results have to be weighted according to the soil heterogeneity. Conversely, the regional land use (1:50 000) provided an acceptable diagnostic when combining with accurate soil database (1:15 000). Moreover, the regional land use quality can be improved by integrating road and river networks usually available at the national scale. Finally, a 5 m modelling cell size appeared as an optimum to correctly describe the landscape components and to assess the hortonian overland flow. A wrong assessment of the hortonian overland flow leads to a misinterpretation of the results and affects effective decision-making, e.g. the number and the location of the NSPW. This uncertainty analysis and the improvement methods developed on this study site can be adapted on other headwater catchments characterized by intermittent surface runoff.

Drought characteristics and related risks in large and mesoscale tropical catchments in Latin-America and South East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauditt, Alexandra; Ribbe, Lars; Birkel, Christian; Célleri, Rolando

2016-04-01

Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in water abundant tropical countries and are expected to become more frequent in the future. Unusual water shortage in the past months and years has severely affected societies living in the Paraiba do Sul river basin (Brazil), the Mekong, as well as in a number of basins in Central America and Vietnam among many others. Preparedness, however, is absent and site appropriate water management measures and strategies are not available. While drought related research and water management in recent years has been widely addressed in water scarce subtropical regions, the US and Europe, not much attention has been paid to drought risk in tropical catchments. Available daily or monthly precipitation and runoff time series for catchments in Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the Mekong region and Vietnam were analysed to compare historical meteorological and hydrological drought frequency (SPI/SRI). The role of tropical catchment characteristics, storage and climate variability in seasonal drought evolvement was investigated by applying the conceptual semi-distributed HBV light model to two undisturbed catchments in Central Vietnam and 18 catchments of a size of 70-5000 km² in Costa Rica. For the Mekong and the Paraíba de Sul, the hydrological module of the WEAP model was applied to undisturbed subcatchments with the same objective. To understand and separate the anthropogenic impact on drought evolvement, the abstractions (irrigation, reservoirs, water supply) and hydrological alterations were observed and quantified by applying water allocation and balance model WEAP. We conclude that such a combined model-data analysis that equally accounts for landscape related and anthropogenic impacts on the local hydrological cycle is a useful approach for drought management in tropical countries.

Picturing and modelling catchments by representative hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loritz, Ralf; Hassler, Sibylle; Jackisch, Conrad; Zehe, Erwin

2016-04-01

Hydrological modelling studies often start with a qualitative sketch of the hydrological processes of a catchment. These so-called perceptual models are often pictured as hillslopes and are generalizations displaying only the dominant and relevant processes of a catchment or hillslope. The problem with these models is that they are prone to become too much predetermined by the designer's background and experience. Moreover it is difficult to know if that picture is correct and contains enough complexity to represent the system under study. Nevertheless, because of their qualitative form, perceptual models are easy to understand and can be an excellent tool for multidisciplinary exchange between researchers with different backgrounds, helping to identify the dominant structures and processes in a catchment. In our study we explore whether a perceptual model built upon an intensive field campaign may serve as a blueprint for setting up representative hillslopes in a hydrological model to reproduce the functioning of two distinctly different catchments. We use a physically-based 2D hillslope model which has proven capable to be driven by measured soil-hydrological parameters. A key asset of our approach is that the model structure itself remains a picture of the perceptual model, which is benchmarked against a) geo-physical images of the subsurface and b) observed dynamics of discharge, distributed state variables and fluxes (soil moisture, matric potential and sap flow). Within this approach we are able to set up two behavioral model structures which allow the simulation of the most important hydrological fluxes and state variables in good accordance with available observations within the 19.4 km2 large Colpach catchment and the 4.5 km2 large Wollefsbach catchment in Luxembourg without the necessity of calibration. This corroborates, contrary to the widespread opinion, that a) lower mesoscale catchments may be modelled by representative hillslopes and b) physically-based models can be parametrized based on comprehensive field data and a good perceptual model. Our results particularly indicate that the main challenge in understanding and modelling the seasonal water balance of a catchment is a proper representation of the phenological cycle of vegetation, not exclusively the structure of the subsurface and spatial variability of soil hydraulic parameters.

A process proof test for model concepts: Modelling the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellebrand, Hugo; Müller, Christoph; Matgen, Patrick; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Savenije, Huub

In hydrological modelling the use of detailed soil data is sometimes troublesome, since often these data are hard to obtain and, if available at all, difficult to interpret and process in a way that makes them meaningful for the model at hand. Intuitively the understanding and mapping of dominant runoff processes in the soil show high potential for improving hydrological models. In this study a labour-intensive methodology to assess dominant runoff processes is simplified in such a way that detailed soil maps are no longer needed. Nonetheless, there is an ongoing debate on how to integrate this type of information in hydrological models. In this study, dominant runoff processes (DRP) are mapped for meso-scale basins using the permeability of the substratum, land use information and the slope in a GIS. During a field campaign the processes are validated and for each DRP assumptions are made concerning their water storage capacity. The latter is done by means of combining soil data obtained during the field campaign with soil data obtained from the literature. Second, several parsimoniously parameterized conceptual hydrological models are used that incorporate certain aspects of the DRP. The result of these models are compared with a benchmark model in which the soil is represented as only one lumped parameter to test the contribution of the DRP in hydrological models. The proposed methodology is tested for 15 meso-scale river basins located in Luxembourg. The main goal of this study is to investigate if integrating dominant runoff processes, which have high information content concerning soil characteristics, with hydrological models allows the improvement of simulation results models with a view to regionalization and predictions in ungauged basins. The regionalization procedure gave no clear results. The calibration procedure and the well-mixed discharge signal of the calibration basins are considered major causes for this and it made the deconvolution of discharge signals of meso-scale basins problematic. From the results it is also suggested that DRP could very well display some sort of uniqueness of place, which was not foreseen in the methods from which they were derived. Furthermore, a strong seasonal influence on model performance was observed, implying a seasonal dependence of the DRP. When comparing the performance between the DRP models and the benchmark model no real distinction was found. To improve the performance of the DRP models, which are used in this study and also for then use of conceptual models in general, there is a need for an improved identification of the mechanisms that cause the different dominant runoff processes at the meso-scale. To achieve this, more orthogonal data could be of use for a better conceptualization of the DRPs. Then, models concepts should be adapted accordingly.

Data-based information gain on the response behaviour of hydrological models at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

A data-based approach is presented to analyse the response behaviour of hydrological models at the catchment scale. The approach starts with a number of sequential time series processing steps, applied to available rainfall, ETo and river flow observation series. These include separation of the high frequency (e.g., hourly, daily) river flow series into subflows, split of the series in nearly independent quick and slow flow hydrograph periods, and the extraction of nearly independent peak and low flows. Quick-, inter- and slow-subflow recession behaviour, sub-responses to rainfall and soil water storage are derived from the time series data. This data-based information on the catchment response behaviour can be applied on the basis of: - Model-structure identification and case-specific construction of lumped conceptual models for gauged catchments; or diagnostic evaluation of existing model structures; - Intercomparison of runoff responses for gauged catchments in a river basin, in order to identify similarity or significant differences between stations or between time periods, and relate these differences to spatial differences or temporal changes in catchment characteristics; - (based on the evaluation of the temporal changes in previous point:) Detection of temporal changes/trends and identification of its causes: climate trends, or land use changes; - Identification of asymptotic properties of the rainfall-runoff behaviour towards extreme peak or low flow conditions (for a given catchment) or towards extreme catchment conditions (for regionalization, ungauged basin prediction purposes); hence evaluating the performance of the model in making extrapolations beyond the range of available stations' data; - (based on the evaluation in previous point:) Evaluation of the usefulness of the model for making extrapolations to more extreme climate conditions projected by for instance climate models. Examples are provided for river basins in Belgium, Ethiopia, Kenya, Ecuador, Bolivia and China. References: Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2012), 'Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes, in a climate changing context', Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, 425-434, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.017 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O. (in press), 'Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models', Hydrological Processes; doi: 10.1002/hyp.9480 [in press

Design flood hydrograph estimation procedure for small and fully-ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.

2013-12-01

The Rational Formula is the most applied equation in practical hydrology due to its simplicity and the effective compromise between theory and data availability. Although the Rational Formula is affected by several drawbacks, it is reliable and surprisingly accurate considering the paucity of input information. However, after more than a century, the recent computational, theoretical, and large-scale monitoring progresses compel us to try to suggest a more advanced yet still empirical procedure for estimating peak discharge in small and ungauged basins. In this contribution an alternative empirical procedure (named EBA4SUB - Event Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins) based on the common modelling steps: design hyetograph, rainfall excess, and rainfall-runoff transformation, is described. The proposed approach, accurately adapted for the fully-ungauged basin condition, provides a potentially better estimation of the peak discharge, a design hydrograph shape, and, most importantly, reduces the subjectivity of the hydrologist in its application.

Integrating 3D geological information with a national physically-based hydrological modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Parkin, Geoff; Kessler, Holger; Whiteman, Mark

2016-04-01

Robust numerical models are an essential tool for informing flood and water management and policy around the world. Physically-based hydrological models have traditionally not been used for such applications due to prohibitively large data, time and computational resource requirements. Given recent advances in computing power and data availability, a robust, physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain using the SHETRAN model and national datasets has been created. Such a model has several advantages over less complex systems. Firstly, compared with conceptual models, a national physically-based model is more readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. Secondly, the results of a physically-based system may be more robust under changing conditions such as climate and land cover, as physical processes and relationships are explicitly accounted for. Finally, a fully integrated surface and subsurface model such as SHETRAN offers a wider range of applications compared with simpler schemes, such as assessments of groundwater resources, sediment and nutrient transport and flooding from multiple sources. As such, SHETRAN provides a robust means of simulating numerous terrestrial system processes which will add physical realism when coupled to the JULES land surface model. 306 catchments spanning Great Britain have been modelled using this system. The standard configuration of this system performs satisfactorily (NSE > 0.5) for 72% of catchments and well (NSE > 0.7) for 48%. Many of the remaining 28% of catchments that performed relatively poorly (NSE < 0.5) are located in the chalk in the south east of England. As such, the British Geological Survey 3D geology model for Great Britain (GB3D) has been incorporated, for the first time in any hydrological model, to pave the way for improvements to be made to simulations of catchments with important groundwater regimes. This coupling has involved development of software to allow for easy incorporation of geological information into SHETRAN for any model setup. The addition of more realistic subsurface representation following this approach is shown to greatly improve model performance in areas dominated by groundwater processes. The resulting modelling system has great potential to be used as a resource at national, regional and local scales in an array of different applications, including climate change impact assessments, land cover change studies and integrated assessments of groundwater and surface water resources.

Preferential flow paths in paraglacial catchments: first order controls on the long-term stability of 'biodiversity hotspots' in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grocott, Michael; Kettridge, Nick; Bradley, Chris; Milner, Alexander

2016-04-01

Groundwater (GW) -fed streams within paraglacial floodplains are considered 'biodiversity hotspots', given their importance as an aquatic ecosystem and role in supporting valuable riverine habitat patches within paraglacial environments. However, it is anticipated that throughout the 21st Century hydrologic regimes of paraglacial systems in arctic, sub-arctic, and alpine regions globally will experience substantial changes, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Declining glacial coverage, shrinking winter snowpack, earlier spring melt, rising permafrost melt and increasing relative importance of groundwater will all cause major changes in the water balance of paraglacial catchments. This research explored the importance of preferential flow pathways (PFPs) as conduits of subsurface flow across paraglacial floodplains, and their role in sustaining 'biodiversity hotspots'. Furthermore, it considered the role of PFPs in hillslope-floodplain connectivity within paraglacial systems and the significance of colluvial deposits as a key water source to GW-fed streams on paraglacial floodplains. An intra-catchment scale field study within ungauged catchments was conducted in Denali National Park & Preserve, Alaska, during 2013 and 2014. The research utilised hydrogeomorphic and hydrochemical field techniques to address the aims outlined above. Surface infiltration and slug tests identified significant spatial heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity (K) across the surface and subsurface of paraglacial floodplains, indicating the presence of PFPs. Furthermore, spatiotemporal variation in geochemical tracers (major ions) within surface and subsurface flow paths established the role of multiple, discrete flow paths (PFPs) in sustaining GW-fed streamflow on floodplains. Finally, hydrograph separations confirmed the significant contribution made by colluvial deposits (e.g. talus slopes) to sustaining GW-fed streamflow on paraglacial research. This research suggests PFPs are a fundamental first order control upon the occurrence of 'biodiversity hotspots' within paraglacial floodplains, and highlights their role as an important conduit for hillslope-floodplain connectivity. Given the expected changes in the hydrological dynamics of paraglacial catchments this research raises questions about the long-term stability of GW-fed streams, and whether the increasing relative importance of groundwater sources (e.g. from colluvium) can sustain flow of GW-fed streams. In addition glacial retreat and associated long-term declines in sediment yields could have negative implications for the development and renewal of PFPs across paraglacial floodplains, which would be detrimental to the persistence of 'biodiversity hotspots'.

Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Patrick

2016-04-01

Estimating the water balance of ungauged catchments has been the subject of decades of research. An extension of the fundamental problem of estimating the hydrology is then understanding how do changes in catchment attributes affect the water balance component? This is a particular issue in forest hydrology where vegetation exerts such a strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), and consequent streamflow (Q). Given the primacy of trees in the water balance, and the potential for change to species and density through logging, fire, pests and diseases and drought, methods that directly relate ET/Q to vegetation structure, species, and stand density are very powerful. Plot studies on tree water use routinely use sapwood area (SA) to calculate transpiration and upscale to the stand/catchment scale. Recent work in south eastern Australian forests have found stand-wide SA to be linearly correlated (R2 = 0.89) with long term mean annual loss (P-Q), and hence, long term mean annual catchment streamflow. Robust relationships can be built between basal area (BA), tree density and stand SA. BA and density are common forest inventory measurements. Until now, no research has related the fundamental stand attribute of SA to streamflow. The data sets include catchments that have been thinned and with varying age classes. Thus far these analyses have been for energy limited systems in wetter forest types. SA has proven to be a more robust biometric than leaf area index which varies seasonally. That long term ET/Q is correlated with vegetation conforms to the Budyko framework. Use of a downscaled (20 m) Aridity Index (AI) has shown distinct correlations with stand SA, and therefore T. Structural patterns at a the hillslope scale not only correlate with SA and T, but also with interception (I) and forest floor evaporation (Es). These correlations between AI and I and Es have given R2 > 0.8. The result of these studies suggest an ability to estimate mean annual ET fluxes at sub hillslope scale using mappable attributes (AI, forest inventory data). Advances in forest inventory techniques, including LiDAR, mean stand attributes can increasingly be mapped over large areas. If combined with process measurements, these mapped attributes provide a powerful platform for simple but robust modelling at the sub-hillslope scale, including exploring hinge points of stand vulnerability to the drier, hotter climate predicted for SE Australia where energy limited systems may face water limitation.

Upstream Structural Management Measures for an Urban Area Flooding in Turkey and their Consequences on Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Bozoglu, B.; Girayhan, T.

2015-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. In this study the flood modelling in an urbanized area, namely Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. 1/1000 scaled maps with the buildings for the urbanized area and 1/5000 scaled maps for the rural parts are used to obtain DTM needed in the flood modelling. The bathymetry of the river is obtained from additional surveys. The main river passing through the urbanized area has a capacity of Q5 according to the design discharge obtained by simple ungauged discharge estimation depending on catchment area only. The effects of the available structures like bridges across the river on the flooding are presented. The upstream structural measures are studied on scenario basis. Four sub-catchments of Terme River are considered as contributing the downstream flooding. The existing circumstance of the Terme River states that the meanders of the river have a major effect on the flood situation and lead to approximately 35% reduction in the peak discharge between upstream and downstream of the river. It is observed that if the flow from the upstream catchments can be retarded through a detention pond constructed in at least two of the upstream catchments, estimated Q100 flood can be conveyed by the river without overtopping from the river channel. The operation of the upstream detention ponds and the scenarios to convey Q500 without causing flooding are also presented. Structural management measures to address changes in flood characteristics in water management planning are discussed. Flood risk is obtained by using the flood hazard maps and water depth-damage functions plotted for a variety of building types and occupancies. The estimated mean annual hazard for the area is calculated as $340 000 and it is estimated that the upstream structural management measures can decrease the direct economic risk 11% for the 500 return period flood.

Variation of curve number with storm depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

2012-04-01

The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division. American Society of Civil Engineers, 119(2). pp. 334-345. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the paper is part of the research project no. N N305 396238 founded by PL-Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The support provided by this organization is gratefully acknowledged.

Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at ungauged sites: risk management under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, San Chuin; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liong, Shie-Yui

2014-12-01

The impact of a changing climate is already being felt on several hydrological systems both on a regional and sub-regional scale of the globe. Southeast Asia is one of the regions strongly affected by climate change. With climate change, one of the anticipated impacts is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall which further increase the region's flood catastrophes, human casualties and economic loss. Optimal mitigation measures can be undertaken only when stormwater systems are designed using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves derived from a long and good quality rainfall data. Developing IDF curves for the future climate can be even more challenging especially for ungauged sites. The current practice to derive current climate's IDF curves for ungauged sites is, for example, to `borrow' or `interpolate' data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. Recent measures to derive IDF curves for present climate was performed by extracting rainfall data from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model driven by ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. This approach has been demonstrated on an ungauged site (Java, Indonesia) and the results were quite promising. In this paper, the authors extend the application of the approach to other ungauged sites particularly in Peninsular Malaysia. The results of the study undoubtedly have significance contribution in terms of local and regional hydrology (Malaysia and Southeast Asian countries). The anticipated impacts of climate change especially increase in rainfall intensity and its frequency appreciates the derivation of future IDF curves in this study. It also provides policy makers better information on the adequacy of storm drainage design, for the current climate at the ungauged sites, and the adequacy of the existing storm drainage to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Estimation of frequency based flood peaks for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

The present study has been conducted to evaluate eight flood prediction models for an ungauged small watershed. These models are either frequently used by or were developed by Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LADOTD). The eight...

Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2014-05-01

Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by identifying the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with FFIR events, and linking them to catchment type. (2) Use this new understanding and data to improve models of FFIR so we can predict where they may happen nationwide by: employing an integrated catchment/urban scale modelling approach to FFIR at high spatial and temporal scales, modelling rapid catchment response to flash floods and their impacts in urban areas; scaling up to larger catchments by improving the representation of fast riverine and surface water flooding and hydromorphic change (including debris flow) in regional scale models of FFIR; improving the representation of FFIR in the JULES land surface model by integrating river routing and fast runoff processes, and performing assimilation of soil moisture and river discharge into the model run (3) Use these new findings and predictions to provide the Environment Agency and other professionals with information and software they can use to manage FFIR, reducing their damage and impact to communities by: developing tools to enable prediction of future FFIR impacts to support the Flood Forecasting Centre in issuing new 'impacts-based' warnings about their occurrence; developing a FFIR analysis tool to assess risks associated with rare events in complex situations involving incomplete knowledge, analogous to those developed for safety assessment in radioactive waste management.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.

Long-term Evaluation of Landuse Changes On Landscape Water Balance - A Case Study From North-east Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegehenkel, M.

In this paper, long-term effects of different afforestation scenarios on landscape wa- ter balance will be analyzed taking into account the results of a regional case study. This analysis is based on using a GIS-coupled simulation model for the the spatially distributed calculation of water balance.For this purpose, the modelling system THE- SEUS with a simple GIS-interface will be used. To take into account the special case of change in forest cover proportion, THESEUS was enhanced with a simple for- est growth model. In the regional case study, model runs will be performed using a detailed spatial data set from North-East Germany. This data set covers a mesoscale catchment located at the moraine landscape of North-East Germany. Based on this data set, the influence of the actual landuse and of different landuse change scenarios on water balance dynamics will be investigated taking into account the spatial distributed modelling results from THESEUS. The model was tested using different experimen- tal data sets from field plots as well as obsverded catchment discharge. Additionally to such convential validation techniques, remote sensing data were used to check the simulated regional distribution of water balance components like evapotranspiration in the catchment.

Spatially distributed environmental fate modelling of terbuthylazine in a mesoscale agricultural catchment using passive sampler data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassmann, Matthias; Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom

2017-04-01

Agricultural application of herbicides often leads to significant herbicide losses to receiving rivers. The impact of agricultural practices on water pollution can be assessed by process-based reactive transport modelling using catchment scale models. Prior to investigations of management practices, these models have to be calibrated using sampling data. However, most previous studies only used concentrations at the catchment outlet for model calibration and validation. Thus, even if the applied model is spatially distributed, predicted spatial differences of pesticide loss cannot be directly compared to observations. In this study, we applied the spatially distributed reactive transport model Zin-AgriTra in the mesoscale (78 km2) catchment of the Wark River in Luxembourg in order to simulate concentrations of terbuthylazine in river water. In contrast to former studies, we used six sampling points, equipped with passive samplers, for pesticide model validation. Three samplers were located in the main channel of the river and three in smaller tributaries. At each sampling point, event mean concentration of six events from May to July 2011 were calculated by subtraction of baseflow-mass from total collected mass assuming time-proportional uptake by passive samplers. Continuous discharge measurements and high-resolution autosampling during events allowed for accurate load calculations at the outlet. Detailed information about maize cultivation in the catchment and nation-wide terbuthylazine application statistics (341 g/ha in the 3rd week of May) were used for a definition of the pesticide input function of the model. The hydrological model was manually calibrated to fit baseflow and spring/summer events. Substance fluxes were calibrated using a Latin Hypercube of physico-chemical substance characteristics as provided by the literature: surface soil half-lives of 10-35 d, Freundlich KOC of 150-330 ml/g, Freundlich n of 0.9 - 1 and adsorption/desorption kinetics of 20 - 80 1/d. Daily discharge simulations resulted in high Kling-Gupta efficiencies (KGE) for the calibration and the validation period (KGE > 0.70). Overall, terbuthylazine concentrations could be successfully reproduced with maximum KGE > 0.90 for all concentrations in the catchment and loads at the outlet. The generally lower concentrations in the tributaries that were measured by the passive samplers and the declining concentrations towards the outlet in the main channel could be reproduced by the model. The model simulated overland flow to be the major source of terbuthylazine in the main channel and soil water fluxes to be the most important pathways in the tributaries. Simulation results suggest that less than 0.01 % of applied terbuthylazine mass was exported to the river in the Wark catchment and less than 5 % of the exported mass was originating from the sampled tributaries. In addition to calibration of substance characteristics, passive sampler data was helpful in model setup of application field connectivity. Since the spatial resolution of the model was 50m, input maps sometimes showed a field to be directly connected to a river, whereas it was in reality separated from it by a 30m wide field or forest strip. Such misconfigurations leading to high concentrations in tributaries could easily be identified by comparing model results to passive sampler data. In conclusion, assigning different transport pathways of terbuthylazine to the rivers by model simulations was helped by using the additional spatial information on pesticide concentrations gained from passive samplers.

Analysis of flood inundation in ungauged basins based on multi-source remote sensing data.

PubMed

Gao, Wei; Shen, Qiu; Zhou, Yuehua; Li, Xin

2018-02-09

Floods are among the most expensive natural hazards experienced in many places of the world and can result in heavy losses of life and economic damages. The objective of this study is to analyze flood inundation in ungauged basins by performing near-real-time detection with flood extent and depth based on multi-source remote sensing data. Via spatial distribution analysis of flood extent and depth in a time series, the inundation condition and the characteristics of flood disaster can be reflected. The results show that the multi-source remote sensing data can make up the lack of hydrological data in ungauged basins, which is helpful to reconstruct hydrological sequence; the combination of MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) surface reflectance productions and the DFO (Dartmouth Flood Observatory) flood database can achieve the macro-dynamic monitoring of the flood inundation in ungauged basins, and then the differential technique of high-resolution optical and microwave images before and after floods can be used to calculate flood extent to reflect spatial changes of inundation; the monitoring algorithm for the flood depth combining RS and GIS is simple and easy and can quickly calculate the depth with a known flood extent that is obtained from remote sensing images in ungauged basins. Relevant results can provide effective help for the disaster relief work performed by government departments.

Defining environmental flows requirements at regional scale by using meso-scale habitat models and catchments classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezza, Paolo; Comoglio, Claudio; Rosso, Maurizio

2010-05-01

The alterations of the natural flow regime and in-stream channel modification due to abstraction from watercourses act on biota through an hydraulic template, which is mediated by channel morphology. Modeling channel hydro-morphology is needed in order to evaluate how much habitat is available for selected fauna under specific environmental conditions, and consequently to assist decision makers in planning options for regulated river management. Meso-scale habitat modeling methods (e.g., MesoHABSIM) offer advantages over the traditional physical habitat evaluation, involving a larger range of habitat variables, allowing longer length of surveyed rivers and enabling understanding of fish behavior at larger spatial scale. In this study we defined a bottom-up method for the ecological discharge evaluation at regional scale, focusing on catchments smaller than 50 km2, most of them located within mountainous areas of Apennines and Alps mountain range in Piedmont (NW Italy). Within the regional study domain we identified 30 representative catchments not affected by water abstractions in order to build up the habitat-flow relationship, to be used as reference when evaluating regulated watercourses or new projects. For each stream we chose a representative reach and obtained fish data by sampling every single functional habitat (i.e. meso-habitat) within the site, keeping separated each area by using nets. The target species were brown trout (Salmo trutta), marble trout (Salmo trutta marmoratus), bullhead (Cottus gobius), chub (Leuciscus cephalus), barbel (Barbus barbus), vairone (Leuciscus souffia) and other rheophilic Cyprinids. The fish habitat suitability criteria was obtained from the observation of habitat use by a selected organism described with a multivariate relationship between habitat characteristics and fish presence. Habitat type, mean slope, cover, biotic choriotop and substrate, stream depth and velocity, water pH, temperature and percentage of dissolved oxygen were collected for each sampled area and considered as independent variables. According to the MesoHABSIM method, we performed a stepwise forward logistic regression in order to build up a biological model identifying the habitat characteristics mostly used by a target fish. For each stream we predicted changes in habitat area over a range of discharges by building the habitat-flow rating curves. Finally, in order to define a regional criteria needed to fulfill environmental flow requirements, we split the study domain according to the regression tree classification criterion defining homogenous sub-regions distinct on both environmental flows and catchment characteristics.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

SWAT ungauged: Hydrological budget and crop yield predictions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physically based, distributed hydrologic models are increasingly used in assessments of water resources, best management practices, and climate and land use changes. Model performance evaluation in ungauged basins is an important research topic. In this study, we propose a framework for developing S...

A technique to minimize uncertainties in load duration curves (LDCs) for water quality-impaired ungauged sites

EPA Science Inventory

For many water quality-impaired stream segments, streamflow and water quality monitoring sites are not available. Lack of available streamflow data at impaired ungauged sites leads to uncertainties in total maximum daily load (TMDL) estimation. We developed a technique to minimiz...

Mapping dominant runoff processes: an evaluation of different approaches using similarity measures and synthetic runoff simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonetti, Manuel; Buss, Rahel; Scherrer, Simon; Margreth, Michael; Zappa, Massimiliano

2016-07-01

The identification of landscapes with similar hydrological behaviour is useful for runoff and flood predictions in small ungauged catchments. An established method for landscape classification is based on the concept of dominant runoff process (DRP). The various DRP-mapping approaches differ with respect to the time and data required for mapping. Manual approaches based on expert knowledge are reliable but time-consuming, whereas automatic GIS-based approaches are easier to implement but rely on simplifications which restrict their application range. To what extent these simplifications are applicable in other catchments is unclear. More information is also needed on how the different complexities of automatic DRP-mapping approaches affect hydrological simulations. In this paper, three automatic approaches were used to map two catchments on the Swiss Plateau. The resulting maps were compared to reference maps obtained with manual mapping. Measures of agreement and association, a class comparison, and a deviation map were derived. The automatically derived DRP maps were used in synthetic runoff simulations with an adapted version of the PREVAH hydrological model, and simulation results compared with those from simulations using the reference maps. The DRP maps derived with the automatic approach with highest complexity and data requirement were the most similar to the reference maps, while those derived with simplified approaches without original soil information differed significantly in terms of both extent and distribution of the DRPs. The runoff simulations derived from the simpler DRP maps were more uncertain due to inaccuracies in the input data and their coarse resolution, but problems were also linked with the use of topography as a proxy for the storage capacity of soils. The perception of the intensity of the DRP classes also seems to vary among the different authors, and a standardised definition of DRPs is still lacking. Furthermore, we argue not to use expert knowledge for only model building and constraining, but also in the phase of landscape classification.

Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matingo, Thomas; Gumindoga, Webster; Makurira, Hodson

2018-05-01

Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff) and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013-2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD) of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System) daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015-2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized hydrological processes such as flash floods for sub-daily rainfall, because of improved spatial and temporal resolution.

Hydrologic controls on the development of equilibrium soil depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicotina, L.; Tarboton, D. G.; Tesfa, T. K.; Rinaldo, A.

2010-12-01

The object of the present work was the study of the coevolution of runoff production and geomorphological processes and its effects on the formation of equilibrium soil depth by focusing on their mutual feedbacks. The primary goal of this work is to describe spatial patterns of soil depth resulting, under the hypothesis of dynamic equilibrium, from long-term interactions between hydrologic forcings and soil production, erosion and sediment transport processes. These processes dominate the formation of actual soil depth patterns that represent the boundary condition for water redistribution, thus this paper also proposes and attempt to set the premises for decoding their individual role and mutual interactions in shaping the hydrologic response of a catchment. The relevance of the study stems from the massive improvement in hydrologic predictions for ungauged basins that would be achieved by using directly soil depths derived from geomorphic features remotely measured and objectively manipulated. Moreover the setup of a coupled hydrologic-geomorphologic approach represents a first step into the study of such interactions and in particular of the effects of soil moisture in determining soil production functions. Hydrological processes are here described by explicitly accounting for local soil depths and detailed catchment topography from high resolution digital terrain models (DTM). Geomorphological processes are described by means of well-studied geomorphic transport laws. Soil depth is assumed, in the exponential soil production function, as a proxy for all the mechanisms that induce mechanical disruption of bedrock and it’s conversion into soil. This formulation, although empirical, has been widely used in the literature and is currently accepted. The modeling approach is applied to the semi-arid Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Boise, Idaho, USA. Modeled soil depths are compared with field data obtained from an extensive survey of the catchment. Our results show the ability of the model to describe properly the mean soil depth and the broad features of the distribution of measured data. However, local comparisons show significant scatter whose origin is discussed.

Full implementation of a distributed hydrological model based on check dam trapped sediment volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Francés, Félix

2014-05-01

Lack of hydrometeorological data is one of the most compelling limitations to the implementation of distributed environmental models. Mediterranean catchments, in particular, are characterised by high spatial variability of meteorological phenomena and soil characteristics, which may prevents from transferring model calibrations from a fully gauged catchment to a totally o partially ungauged one. For this reason, new sources of data are required in order to extend the use of distributed models to non-monitored or low-monitored areas. An important source of information regarding the hydrological and sediment cycle is represented by sediment deposits accumulated at the bottom of reservoirs. Since the 60s, reservoir sedimentation volumes were used as proxy data for the estimation of inter-annual total sediment yield rates, or, in more recent years, as a reference measure of the sediment transport for sediment model calibration and validation. Nevertheless, the possibility of using such data for constraining the calibration of a hydrological model has not been exhaustively investigated so far. In this study, the use of nine check dam reservoir sedimentation volumes for hydrological and sedimentological model calibration and spatio-temporal validation was examined. Check dams are common structures in Mediterranean areas, and are a potential source of spatially distributed information regarding both hydrological and sediment cycle. In this case-study, the TETIS hydrological and sediment model was implemented in a medium-size Mediterranean catchment (Rambla del Poyo, Spain) by taking advantage of sediment deposits accumulated behind the check dams located in the catchment headwaters. Reservoir trap efficiency was taken into account by coupling the TETIS model with a pond trap efficiency model. The model was calibrated by adjusting some of its parameters in order to reproduce the total sediment volume accumulated behind a check dam. Then, the model was spatially validated by obtaining the simulated sedimentation volume at the other eight check dams and comparing it to the observed sedimentation volumes. Lastly, the simulated water discharge at the catchment outlet was compared with observed water discharge records in order to check the hydrological sub-model behaviour. Model results provided highly valuable information concerning the spatial distribution of soil erosion and sediment transport. Spatial validation of the sediment sub-model provided very good results at seven check dams out of nine. This study shows that check dams can be a useful tool also for constraining hydrological model calibration, as model results agree with water discharge observations. In fact, the hydrological model validation at a downstream water flow gauge obtained a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.8. This technique is applicable to all catchments with presence of check dams, and only requires rainfall and temperature data and soil characteristics maps.

Predicting urban stormwater runoff with quantitative precipitation estimates from commercial microwave links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastorek, Jaroslav; Fencl, Martin; Stránský, David; Rieckermann, Jörg; Bareš, Vojtěch

2017-04-01

Reliable and representative rainfall data are crucial for urban runoff modelling. However, traditional precipitation measurement devices often fail to provide sufficient information about the spatial variability of rainfall, especially when heavy storm events (determining design of urban stormwater systems) are considered. Commercial microwave links (CMLs), typically very dense in urban areas, allow for indirect precipitation detection with desired spatial and temporal resolution. Fencl et al. (2016) recognised the high bias in quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from CMLs which significantly limits their usability and, in order to reduce the bias, suggested a novel method for adjusting the QPEs to existing rain gauge networks. Studies evaluating the potential of CMLs for rainfall detection so far focused primarily on direct comparison of the QPEs from CMLs to ground observations. In contrast, this investigation evaluates the suitability of these innovative rainfall data for stormwater runoff modelling on a case study of a small ungauged (in long-term perspective) urban catchment in Prague-Letňany, Czech Republic (Fencl et al., 2016). We compare the runoff measured at the outlet from the catchment with the outputs of a rainfall-runoff model operated using (i) CML data adjusted by distant rain gauges, (ii) rainfall data from the distant gauges alone and (iii) data from a single temporary rain gauge located directly in the catchment, as it is common practice in drainage engineering. Uncertainties of the simulated runoff are analysed using the Bayesian method for uncertainty evaluation incorporating a statistical bias description as formulated by Del Giudice et al. (2013). Our results show that adjusted CML data are able to yield reliable runoff modelling results, primarily for rainfall events with convective character. Performance statistics, most significantly the timing of maximal discharge, reach better (less uncertain) values with the adjusted CML data than with the distant rain gauges. When the relative error of the volume discharged during the maximum flow period is concerned, the adjusted CMLs perform even better than the rain gauge in the catchment. This seem to be very promising, especially for urban catchments with sparse rain gauge networks. References: Del Giudice, D., Honti, M., Scheidegger, A., Albert, C., Reichert, P., and Rieckermann, J. 2013. Improving uncertainty estimation in urban hydrological modeling by statistically describing bias. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, 4209-4225. Fencl, M., Dohnal, M., Rieckermann, J., and Bareš, V. 2016. Gauge-Adjusted Rainfall Estimates from Commercial Microwave Links, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2016- 397, in review. Acknowledgements to the Czech Science Foundation projects No. 14-22978S and No. 17-16389S.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

2017-04-01

Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15 catchments resulted in good model performance (NSE > 0.5) in 10 and medium performance (NSE > 0.2) in 3 catchments. Optimal model parameters proofed to be relatively insensitive to different HRU configurations. This suggests that dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer can potentially be identified based on catchment attributes describing meteorological, geological or landscape characteristics. Parameter regionalization based on a principal component analysis (PCA) nearest neighbor search (using all available catchment attributes) resulted in a 54% success rate in transferring optimal parameter sets and still yielding acceptable model performance. Data from more catchments are required to further increase the parameter transferability success rate or to develop regionalization strategies for individual parameters.

How snowmelt changed due to climate change in an ungauged catchment on the Tibetan Plateau?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Yao, Zhijun

2017-04-01

Snow variability is an integrated indicator of climate change, and it has important impacts on runoff regimes and water availability in high altitude catchments. Remote sensing techniques can make it possible to quantitatively detect the snow cover changes and associated hydrological effects in those poorly gauged regions. In this study, the spatial-temporal variations of snow cover and snow melting time in the Tuotuo River basin, which is the headwater of the Yangtze River, were evaluated based on satellite information from MODIS snow cover product, and the snow melting equivalent and its contribution to the total runoff and baseflow were estimated by using degree-day model. The results showed that the snow cover percentage and the tendency of snow cover variability increased with rising altitude. From 2000 to 2012, warmer and wetter climate change resulted in an increase of the snow cover area. Since the 1960s, the start time for snow melt has become earlier by 0.9 3 d/10a and the end time of snow melt has become later by 0.6 2.3 d/10a. Under the control of snow cover and snow melting time, the equivalent of snow melting runoff in the Tuotuo River basin has been fluctuating. The average contributions of snowmelt to baseflow and total runoff were 19.6 % and 6.8 %, respectively. Findings from this study will serve as a reference for future research in areas where observational data are deficient and for planning of future water management strategies for the source region of the Yangtze River.

Identifying ephemeral and perennial stream reaches using apparent thermal inertia for an ungauged basin: The Rio Salado, Central New Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Night and day temperature images from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) remote sensing images are used to identify ephemeral and perennial stream reaches for use in the calibration of an integrated hydrologic model of an ungauged basin. The concept is based on a...

Facing the scaling problem: A multi-methodical approach to simulate soil erosion at hillslope and catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmengler, A. C.; Vlek, P. L. G.

2012-04-01

Modelling soil erosion requires a holistic understanding of the sediment dynamics in a complex environment. As most erosion models are scale-dependent and their parameterization is spatially limited, their application often requires special care, particularly in data-scarce environments. This study presents a hierarchical approach to overcome the limitations of a single model by using various quantitative methods and soil erosion models to cope with the issues of scale. At hillslope scale, the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP)-model is used to simulate soil loss and deposition processes. Model simulations of soil loss vary between 5 to 50 t ha-1 yr-1 dependent on the spatial location on the hillslope and have only limited correspondence with the results of the 137Cs technique. These differences in absolute soil loss values could be either due to internal shortcomings of each approach or to external scale-related uncertainties. Pedo-geomorphological soil investigations along a catena confirm that estimations by the 137Cs technique are more appropriate in reflecting both the spatial extent and magnitude of soil erosion at hillslope scale. In order to account for sediment dynamics at a larger scale, the spatially-distributed WaTEM/SEDEM model is used to simulate soil erosion at catchment scale and to predict sediment delivery rates into a small water reservoir. Predicted sediment yield rates are compared with results gained from a bathymetric survey and sediment core analysis. Results show that specific sediment rates of 0.6 t ha-1 yr-1 by the model are in close agreement with observed sediment yield calculated from stratigraphical changes and downcore variations in 137Cs concentrations. Sediment erosion rates averaged over the entire catchment of 1 to 2 t ha-1 yr-1 are significantly lower than results obtained at hillslope scale confirming an inverse correlation between the magnitude of erosion rates and the spatial scale of the model. The study has shown that the use of multiple methods facilitates the calibration and validation of models and might provide a more accurate measure for soil erosion rates in ungauged catchments. Moreover, the approach could be used to identify the most appropriate working and operational scales for soil erosion modelling.

Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

2016-04-01

On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams for which the warnings are issued. This paper aims to explain how this indicator has been created and to assess its relevance with the example of the 3rd October 2015 flood. By completing this approach, the AIGA warnings may characterize not only the flood hazard but more inclusively the risk of flooding, allowing to forecast this type of event. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J., & Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

River-groundwater connectivity and nutrient dynamics in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Musolff, Andreas; Gilfedder, Benjamin; Frei, Sven; Wankmüller, Fabian; Trauth, Nico

2017-04-01

Diffuse solute exports from catchments are governed by many interrelated factors such as land use, climate, geological-/ hydrogeological setup and morphology. Those factors create spatial variations in solute concentrations and turnover rates in the subsurface as well as in the stream network. River-groundwater connectivity is a crucial control in this context: On the one hand groundwater is a main pathway for nitrate inputs to the stream. On the other hand, groundwater connectivity with the stream affects the magnitude of hyporheic exchange of stream water with the stream bed. We present results of a longitudinal sampling campaign along the Selke river, a 67 km long third-order stream in the Harz mountains in central Germany. Water quality at the catchment outlet is strongly impacted by agriculture with high concentrations of nitrate and a chemostatic nitrate export regime. However, the specific nitrate pathways to the stream are not fully understood as there is arable land distributed throughout the catchment. While the sparsely distributed arable land in the mountainous upper catchment receives much higher amounts of precipitation, the downstream alluvial plains are drier, but more intensively used. The three-day campaign was conducted in June 2016 under constant low flow conditions. Stream water samples were taken every 2 km along the main stem of the river and at its major tributaries. Samples were analyzed for field parameters, major cations and anions, N-O isotopes, nutrients and Radon-222 (Rn) concentrations. Additionally, at each sampling location, river discharge was manually measured using current meters. Groundwater influxes to each sampled river section were quantified from the Rn measurements using the code FINIFLUX, (Frei and Gilfedder 2015). Rn and ion concentrations showed an increase from the spring to the mouth, indicating a growing impact of groundwater flux to the river. However, increases in groundwater gains were not gradual. The strongest gains were observed downstream of where the Selke River leaves the Harz Mountains and enters the alluvial plains. At this location, land use, hydrogeological setup and river slope as well as average slope of the contributing catchment area change significantly. Downstream of this point 15N isotope values were also significantly higher, suggesting higher denitrification activity in the deeper aquifers of lower catchment. While specific discharge (discharge per catchment area) was 3 times higher in the upper catchment, nitrate mass flux per area was more than 3 times higher in lower catchment compared to the respective other part of the catchment. We conclude that catchment morphology, (hydro)geology and hydrology control river-groundwater connectivity while the interplay with land use controls in stream nitrate concentrations. Repeated sampling campaigns will allow assessing seasonal changes in solute inputs and turnover. References Frei, S. & Gilfedder, B.S. (2015): FINIFLUX: An implicit finite element model for quantification of groundwater fluxes and hyporheic exchange in streams and rivers using radon. Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017212.

A High Space-Time Resolution Dataset Linking Meteorological Forcing and Hydro-Sedimentary Response in a Mesoscale Mediterranean Catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche Region, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nord, G.; Braud, I.; Boudevillain, B.; Gérard, S.; Molinié, G.; Vandervaere, J. P.; Huza, J.; Le Coz, J.; Dramais, G.; Legout, C.; Berne, A.; Grazioli, J.; Raupach, T.; Van Baelen, J.; Wijbrans, A.; Delrieu, G.; Andrieu, J.; Caliano, M.; Aubert, C.; Teuling, R.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Branger, F.; Vincendon, B.; Horner, I.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 Jan 2011-31 Dec 2014 to improve the understanding and simulation of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Mediterranean region. The specificity of the dataset is its high space-time resolution, especially concerning rainfall and the hydrological response which is particularly adapted to the highly spatially variable rainfall events that may occur in this region. This type of dataset is rare in scientific literature because of the quantity and type of sensors for meteorology and surface hydrology. Rainfall data include continuous precipitation measured by rain-gages (5 min time step for the research network of 21 rain-gages and 1h time step for the operational network of 9 rain-gages), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radar (1 km2, 5 min resolution), and disdrometers (11 sensors working at 1 min time step). During the special observation period (SOP-1) and enhanced observation period (Sep-Dec 2012, Sep-Dec 2013) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). Meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo France at the hourly time resolution (6 stations in the region of interest). The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations measure water discharge and additional physico-chemical variables at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 gauges continuously measures water level and temperature in headwater subcatchments at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enable the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, opportunistic observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. The data are appropriate for understanding rainfall variability, improving areal rainfall estimations and progress in distributed hydrological modelling.

A High Space-Time Resolution Dataset Linking Meteorological Forcing and Hydro-Sedimentary Response in a Mesoscale Mediterranean Catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche Region, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nord, G.; Braud, I.; Boudevillain, B.; Gérard, S.; Molinié, G.; Vandervaere, J. P.; Huza, J.; Le Coz, J.; Dramais, G.; Legout, C.; Berne, A.; Grazioli, J.; Raupach, T.; Van Baelen, J.; Wijbrans, A.; Delrieu, G.; Andrieu, J.; Caliano, M.; Aubert, C.; Teuling, R.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Branger, F.; Vincendon, B.; Horner, I.

2015-12-01

A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 Jan 2011-31 Dec 2014 to improve the understanding and simulation of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Mediterranean region. The specificity of the dataset is its high space-time resolution, especially concerning rainfall and the hydrological response which is particularly adapted to the highly spatially variable rainfall events that may occur in this region. This type of dataset is rare in scientific literature because of the quantity and type of sensors for meteorology and surface hydrology. Rainfall data include continuous precipitation measured by rain-gages (5 min time step for the research network of 21 rain-gages and 1h time step for the operational network of 9 rain-gages), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radar (1 km2, 5 min resolution), and disdrometers (11 sensors working at 1 min time step). During the special observation period (SOP-1) and enhanced observation period (Sep-Dec 2012, Sep-Dec 2013) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). Meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo France at the hourly time resolution (6 stations in the region of interest). The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations measure water discharge and additional physico-chemical variables at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 gauges continuously measures water level and temperature in headwater subcatchments at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enable the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, opportunistic observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. The data are appropriate for understanding rainfall variability, improving areal rainfall estimations and progress in distributed hydrological modelling.

Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

2015-04-01

Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM features to parameterise these. The model can be used to investigate runoff attenuation (in this case primarily through a lagged routing term applied to surface runoff) as a result of implementing mitigation measures. However to be fully integrated within a DSM framework requires the CRAFT to be linked to a user-friendly interface that will allow the user to modify key parameters, preferably using a web-based expert system, which will be explored further.

Flood Simulation based on ArcGIS in the Ungauged Area from Fugu to Wubao of the middle Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Shuangyan; Yan, Yiqi; Jiang, Xinhui

2017-12-01

The Qingliangsigou and Jialuhe in the middle Yellow River are selected as the typical tributaries, history flood data in 1980-2013 and Horton infiltration capacity curve are used to calculate the stable infiltration rate and establish the model of runoff yield and concentration, the parameters are calibrated and applied in the ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao. The study area is divided into 20 units based on ArcGIS, Muskingum method parameters in each unit are calibrated, and typical floods of ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao are simulated. The results show that the simulation effects are good: the average error of peak time is about -0.4h, the error of peak discharge is in the forecasting allowable range, and the deterministic coefficient is 0.66.

Rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites using satellite precipitation products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-11-01

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their impacts on hydrologic systems and society are critical considerations in the design and management of a large number of water resources projects. As precipitation records are often limited or unavailable at many sites, it is essential to develop better methods for regional estimation of extreme rainfall at these partially-gauged or ungauged sites. In this study, an innovative method for regional rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites is presented. The new method (hereafter, this is called the RRFA-S) is based on corrected annual maximum series obtained from a satellite precipitation product (e.g., PERSIANN-CDR). The probability matching method (PMM) is used here for bias correction to match the CDF of satellite-based precipitation data with the gauged data. The RRFA-S method was assessed through a comparative study with the traditional index flood method using the available annual maximum series of daily rainfall in two different regions in USA (11 sites in Colorado and 18 sites in California). The leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to represent the ungauged site condition. Results of this numerical application have found that the quantile estimates obtained from the new approach are more accurate and more robust than those given by the traditional index flood method.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

A model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent parameterized from the spatial variability of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn H.

2016-09-01

Snow is an important and complicated element in hydrological modelling. The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters, also in snow sub-models, is not a well-suited tool for predicting conditions for which it has not been calibrated. Such conditions include prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change. In this study, a new model for the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE), parameterized solely from observed spatial variability of precipitation, is compared with the current snow distribution model used in the operational flood forecasting models in Norway. The former model uses a dynamic gamma distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Gamma, (SD_G), whereas the latter model has a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation, which parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution and is called Snow Distribution_Log-Normal (SD_LN). The two models are implemented in the parameter parsimonious rainfall-runoff model Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD), and their capability for predicting runoff, SWE and snow-covered area (SCA) is tested and compared for 71 Norwegian catchments. The calibration period is 1985-2000 and validation period is 2000-2014. Results show that SDG better simulates SCA when compared with MODIS satellite-derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" and giving spurious positive trends in SWE, typical for SD_LN, is prevented. The precision of runoff simulations using SDG is slightly inferior, with a reduction in Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion of 0.01, but it is shown that the high precision in runoff prediction using SD_LN is accompanied with erroneous simulations of SWE.

An examination of the spatial variability of the United States surface water balance using the Budyko relationship for current and projected climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2017-12-01

The spatial variability in the balance between surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding water availability. The Budyko framework suggests that this balance is solely a function of aridity. Observed deviations from this framework for individual watersheds, however, can vary significantly, resulting in uncertainty in using the Budyko framework in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. Here, we model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation into Q and ET using a set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics for 211 near-natural watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. Using a generalized additive model, we found that precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. This ω model applied to the Budyko framework explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of near-natural watersheds. The developed ω model was also used to estimate the entire CONUS surface water balance for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The contemporary CONUS surface water balance compared favorably to more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western US. The Budyko framework using the modeled ω lends itself to an alternative approach for assessing the potential response of catchment water balance to climate change to complement other approaches.

Exploring the use of WRF-3DVar for Estimating reference evapotranspiration in semi arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Michaela; Liu, Jia; Abdulhamza, Ali; Bocklemann-Evans, Bettina

2013-04-01

Evapotranspiration is an important process in hydrology and is central to the analysis of water balances and water resource management. Significant water losses can occur in large drainage basins under semi arid climate conditions, moreover with the lack of measured data, the exact losses are hard to quantify. Since direct measurements for evapotranspiration are difficult to obtain it is common to estimate the process by using evapotranspiration models such as the Priestley-Taylor model, Shuttleworth -Wallace model and the FAO Penmann-Monteith. However these models depend on several atmospheric variables such as atmospheric pressure, wind speed, air temperature, net radiation and relative humidity. Some of these variables are also difficult to acquire from in-situ measurements; in addition these measurements provide local information which need to be interpolated to cover larger catchment areas over long time scales. Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelling has become more accessible to the hydrometeorological community in recent years and is frequently used for modelling precipitation at the catchment scale. However these NWPs can also provide the atmospheric variables needed for evapotranspiration estimation at finer resolutions than can be attained from in situ measurements, offering a practical water resource tool. Moreover there is evidence that assimilation of real time observations can help improve the accuracy of mesoscale weather modelling which in turn would improve the overall evapotranspiration estimate. This study explores the effect of data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to derive evapotranspiration estimates for the Tigris water basin, Iraq. Two types of traditional observations, SYNOP and SOUND are assimilated by WRF-3DVAR.which contain surface and upper-level measurements of pressure, temperature, humidity and wind. The downscaled weather variables are used to determine evapostranspiration estimates and compared with observed evapostranspiration data measured by Class A evaporation pan.

A spatio-temporal evaluation of the WRF physical parameterisations for numerical rainfall simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid catchments of Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Wang, Jianhua; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Fuliang; Chu, Zhigang

2017-07-01

Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction systems can provide rainfall products at high resolutions in space and time, playing an increasingly more important role in water management and flood forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is one of the most popular mesoscale systems and has been extensively used in research and practice. However, for hydrologists, an unsolved question must be addressed before each model application in a different target area. That is, how are the most appropriate combinations of physical parameterisations from the vast WRF library selected to provide the best downscaled rainfall? In this study, the WRF model was applied with 12 designed parameterisation schemes with different combinations of physical parameterisations, including microphysics, radiation, planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and cumulus parameterisations. The selected study areas are two semi-humid and semi-arid catchments located in the Daqinghe River basin, Northern China. The performance of WRF with different parameterisation schemes is tested for simulating eight typical 24-h storm events with different evenness in space and time. In addition to the cumulative rainfall amount, the spatial and temporal patterns of the simulated rainfall are evaluated based on a two-dimensional composed verification statistic. Among the 12 parameterisation schemes, Scheme 4 outperforms the other schemes with the best average performance in simulating rainfall totals and temporal patterns; in contrast, Scheme 6 is generally a good choice for simulations of spatial rainfall distributions. Regarding the individual parameterisations, Single-Moment 6 (WSM6), Yonsei University (YSU), Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD) are better choices for microphysics, planetary boundary layers (PBL) and cumulus parameterisations, respectively, in the study area. These findings provide helpful information for WRF rainfall downscaling in semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The methodologies to design and test the combination schemes of parameterisations can also be regarded as a reference for generating ensembles in numerical rainfall predictions using the WRF model.

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

A similarity based approach to identify homogeneous regions for seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-04-01

Seasonal runoff forecasting using statistical models is challenged by a large number of candidate predictors and a general weak predictor-predictand relationship. As the area of the target basin increases, often also the available data sets do, thus reinforcing the predictor selection challenge. We propose an approach which follows the idea of 'divide and conquer' as developed in computational sciences and machine learning: First, the macroscale target basin is partitioned into homogeneous regions using all its gauged mesoscale subbasins. Second, one representative subbasin per homogeneous region is identified, for which models are fitted and applied. Third, the resulting forecasts are combined at the scale of the macroscale target basin. This approach requires a suitable method to identify homogeneous regions and representative subbasins. We suggest a way based on hydrological similarity, as catchment similarity estimated with respect to physiographic-climatic descriptors does not necessarily imply similar runoff response. Each descriptor is derived from daily runoff series and aimed to reflect a specific catchment characteristic: autocorrelation coefficient, parameters of fitted Gamma distribution and low/high flow indices (based on daily runoff values) fluctuation of the standard deviation within the yearly cycle (based on weekly runoff values) dominant harmonics obtained from the discrete Fourier transform (based on monthly runoff values) long term trend (based on yearly runoff values) Where necessary, the runoff series first need to be standardized, aggregated, detrended or deseasonalized. As a preliminary study we present the results of a cluster analysis for the Swiss Rhine River as macroscale target basin, which leads to about 40 mesoscale subbasins with runoff series for the period 1991-2010. Problems we have to address include the choice of a clustering algorithm, the identification of an appropriate number of regions and the selection of representative subbasins per region. The results are finally discussed with respect to the runoff regimes as defined in the Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland.

Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

2015-08-01

Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Juliane; Cuntz, Matthias; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

2016-04-01

River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

2017-12-01

Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS's model outputs as well as empirically generated flow data for their use in water resources management decisions. PRMS is also being used to better understand the streamflow patterns in the San Antonio Creek watershed for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions as the creek is generally dry between late Spring and early Fall.

Assessing the value of variational assimilation of streamflow data into distributed hydrologic models for improved streamflow monitoring and prediction at ungauged and gauged locations in the catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hak Su; Seo, Dong-Jun; Liu, Yuqiong; McKee, Paul; Corby, Robert

2010-05-01

State updating of distributed hydrologic models via assimilation of streamflow data is subject to "overfitting" because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously underdetermined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carried out a set of real-world experiments in which we assimilate streamflow data at interior and/or outlet locations into gridded SAC and kinematic-wave routing models of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM). We used for the experiments nine basins in the southern plains of the U.S. The experiments consist of selectively assimilating streamflow at different gauge locations, outlet and/or interior, and carrying out both dependent and independent validation. To assess the sensitivity of the quality of assimilation-aided streamflow simulation to the reduced dimensionality of the state space, we carried out data assimilation at spatially semi-distributed or lumped scale and by adjusting biases in precipitation and potential evaporation at a 6-hourly or larger scale. In this talk, we present the results and findings.

Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

2015-12-01

One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

Integrated Hydro-geomorphological Monitoring System of the Upper Bussento river basin (Cilento and Vallo Diano Geopark, S-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guida, D.; Cuomo, A.; Longobardi, A.; Villani, P.; Guida, M.; Guadagnuolo, D.; Cestari, A.; Siervo, V.; Benevento, G.; Sorvino, S.; Doto, R.; Verrone, M.; De Vita, A.; Aloia, A.; Positano, P.

2012-04-01

The Mediterranean river ecosystem functionings are supported by river-aquifer interactions. The assessment of their ecological services requires interdisciplinary scientific approaches, integrate monitoring systems and inter-institutional planning and management. This poster illustrates the Hydro-geomorphological Monitoring System build-up in the Upper Bussento river basin by the University of Salerno, in agreement with the local Basin Autorities and in extension to the other river basins located in the Cilento and Vallo Diano National Park (southern Italy), recently accepted in the European Geopark Network. The Monitoring System is based on a hierarchical Hydro-geomorphological Model (HGM), improved in a multiscale, nested and object-oriented Hydro-geomorphological Informative System (HGIS, Figure 1). Hydro-objects are topologically linked and functionally bounded by Hydro-elements at various levels of homogeneity (Table 1). Spatial Hydro-geomorpho-system, HG-complex and HG-unit support respectively areal Hydro-objects, as basin, sector and catchment and linear Hydro-objects, as river, segment, reach and section. Runoff initiation points, springs, disappearing points, junctions, gaining and water losing points complete the Hydro-systems. An automatic procedure use the Pfafstetter coding to hierarchically divide a terrain into arbitrarily small hydro-geomorphological units (basin, interfluve, headwater and no-contribution areas, each with a unique label with hierarchical topological properties. To obtain a hierarchy of hydro-geomorphological units, the method is then applied recursively on each basin and interbasin, and labels of the subdivided regions are appended to the existing label of the original region. The monitoring stations are ranked consequently in main, secondary, temporary and random and located progressively at the points or sections representative for the hydro-geomorphological responses by validation control and modeling calibration. The datasets are organized into a relational geodatabase supporting tracer testings, space-time analysis and hydrological modeling. At the moment, three main station for hourly streamflow measurements are located at the terminal sections of the main basin and the two main sub-basin; secondary stations for weekly discharge measurements are located along the Upper Bussento river segment, upstream and downstream of each river reach or tributary catchments or karst spring inflow. Temporary stations are located in the representative sections of the catchments to detect stream flow losses into alluvial beds or experimental parcels in the bare karst and forested sandstone headwaters. Streamflow measurements are combined with geochemical survey and water sampling for Radon activity concentration measurements. Results of measurement campains in Radon space-time distribution within the basin are given in other contribution of same EGU session. Monitoring results confirm the hourly, daily, weekly and monthly hydrological data and validate outcomes of semi-distributed hydrological models based on previously time series, allowing both academic consultants and institutional subject to extend the Integrated Hydro-geomorphological Monitoring System to the surrounding drainage areas of the Cilento and Vallo di Diano Geopark. Keywords: River-aquifer interaction, Upper Bussento river basin, monitoring system, hydro-geomorphology, semi-distributed hydrological model. Table 1: Comparative, hierarchical Hydro-morpho-climate entities Hierarchy levelArea (Km2) Scale Orography Entity Climate Entity Morfological Entity Areal Drainage Entity Linear Drainage Entity VIII 106 1:15E6 Orogen Macroscale α Morphological Region Hydrological Region VII 105 1:10E6 Chain Sistem Macroscale β Morphological Province Hydrological Province VI 104 1:5E5 Chain Mesoscale α Morphological Sistem Basin River V 103 1:2,5E5Chain Segment Mesoscale β Morphological Sub-systemSub-Basin Torrent IV 100 1:1,0E5Orographic Group Mesoscale γ Morphological Complex Basin Sector Mid Order Channel/ Segment III 10 1: 5E4 Orographic System Microscale αMorphological Unit Watershed Low Order Channel/ Reach II 1 1:2,5E3Orographic ComplexMicroscale βMorphological ComponentCatchment Transient Channel/ Pool I 10-2 1:5E3 Orographic Unit Microscale γMorphological Element Hollow Zero Order Channel PIC

Performance of MODIS satellite and mesoscale model based land surface temperature for soil moisture deficit estimation using Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Petropoulos, George P.; Gupta, Manika; Islam, Tanvir

2015-04-01

Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) is a key variable in the water and energy exchanges that occur at the land-surface/atmosphere interface. Monitoring SMD is an alternate method of irrigation scheduling and represents the use of the suitable quantity of water at the proper time by combining measurements of soil moisture deficit. In past it is found that LST has a strong relation to SMD, which can be estimated by MODIS or numerical weather prediction model such as WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model). By looking into the importance of SMD, this work focused on the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for evaluating its capabilities towards SMD estimation using the LST data estimated from MODIS and WRF mesoscale model. The benchmark SMD estimated from Probability Distribution Model (PDM) over the Brue catchment, Southwest of England, U.K. is used for all the calibration and validation experiments. The performances between observed and simulated SMD are assessed in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the percentage of bias (%Bias). The application of the ANN confirmed a high capability WRF and MODIS LST for prediction of SMD. Performance during the ANN calibration and validation showed a good agreement between benchmark and estimated SMD with MODIS LST information with significantly higher performance than WRF simulated LST. The work presented showed the first comprehensive application of LST from MODIS and WRF mesoscale model for hydrological SMD estimation, particularly for the maritime climate. More studies in this direction are recommended to hydro-meteorological community, so that useful information will be accumulated in the technical literature domain for different geographical locations and climatic conditions. Keyword: WRF, Land Surface Temperature, MODIS satellite, Soil Moisture Deficit, Neural Network

On the Development of an Integrated Hydrologic, Hydraulic, and Inverse Modeling Approach for Estimating Discharges and Water Depths for Ungauged Rivers from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIU, G.; Schwartz, F. W.; Tseng, K. H.; Shum, C. K.

2015-12-01

The characterization of hydrologic processes in large river basins has been benefitting from a variety of remotely sensed data. These are useful in augmenting the conventional ground-surface and gage data that have long been available, or in providing what is often the only available information for ungauged river basins. The goal of this study is to demonstrate an innovative modeling approach that uses satellite data to enhance understanding of rivers, particularly ungauged rivers. The paper describes a prototype system - SWAT-XG, coupling SWAT and XSECT models in a Genetic Algorithm framework, for estimating discharge and depth for ungauged rivers from space. SWAT-XG was rigorously tested in the Red River of the North basin by validating discharge and depth products from 2006 to 2010 using in-situ observations across the basin. Results show that SWAT-XG, calibrated against remotely sensed data alone (i.e., water levels from ENVISAT altimetry and water extents from LANDSAT), was able to provide estimates of daily and monthly river discharge with mean R2 values of 0.822 and 0.924, respectively, against data from three gaging stations on the main stem. SWAT-XG also simulated the discharges of smaller tributaries well (yielding a mean R2 of 0.809 over seven gaging stations), suggesting that the SWAT-XG is a powerful estimator of river discharge at a basin scale. Results also show that the SWAT-XG simulated river's vertical dynamics quite well, providing water-depth estimates with an average R2 of 0.831. We conclude that the SWAT-XG advances the ability to estimate discharge and water depth from space for ungauged rivers. SWAT-XG would help to solve global big data problem for river studies and offer potential for understanding and quantifying the global water cycles. This study also implies that in-situ discharge data may not be necessary for a successful hydrologic model calibration.

A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

2018-03-01

Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the validated model with those reported observations can provide guidance for the decision support system (DSS) to maintain EF range in an ungauged tidal river.

Simulating land use changes in the Upper Narew catchment using the RegCM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liszewska, Malgorzata; Osuch, Marzena; Romanowicz, Renata

2010-05-01

Catchment hydrology is influenced by climate forcing in the form of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and human interactions such as land use and water management practices. The difficulty in separating different causes of change in a hydrological regime results from the complexity of interactions between those three factors and catchment responses and the uncertainty and scarcity of available observations. This paper describes an application of a regional climate model to simulate the variability in precipitation, temperature, evaporation and discharge under different land use parameterizations, using the Upper Narew catchment (north-east Poland) as a case study. We use RegCM3 model, developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The model's dynamic core is based on the hydrostatic version of the NCAR/PSU Mesoscale Model version 5 (primitive equations, hydrostatic, compressible, sigma-vertical coordinate). The physical input includes radiation transfer, large-scale and convective precipitation, Planetary Boundary Layer, biosphere. The RegCM3 model has options to interface with a variety of re-analyses and GCM boundary conditions, and can thus be used for scenario assessments. The variability of hydrological conditions in response to regional climate model projections is modeled using an integrated Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) rainfall-flow/flow-routing model of the Upper River Narew catchment. The modelling tool developed is formulated in the MATLAB-SIMULINK language. The basic system structure includes rainfall-flow and flow routing modules, based on a Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) approach combined with a nonlinear transformation of rainfall into effective rainfall. We analyse the signal resulting from modified land use in a given region. 10 month-long runs have been performed from February to November for the period of 1991-2000 based on the NCEP re-analyses. The land use data have been taken from the GLCC dataset and the Corine Land Cover programme (http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/, GIOS, Poland). Simulations taking into account land use modifications in the catchment are compared with the reference simulations under no change in land use in the region. In the second part of the paper we discuss the application of the RegCM3 model in two climate change scenarios (SRES A2 and B1). The study is a contribution to the LUWR programme (http://luwr.igf.edu.pl).

Integrating petrography, mineralogy and hydrochemistry to constrain the influence and distribution of groundwater contributions to baseflow in poorly productive aquifers: insights from Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal, NW Ireland.

PubMed

Caulfield, John; Chelliah, Merlyn; Comte, Jean-Christophe; Cassidy, Rachel; Flynn, Raymond

2014-12-01

Identifying groundwater contributions to baseflow forms an essential part of surface water body characterisation. The Gortinlieve catchment (5 km(2)) comprises a headwater stream network of the Carrigans River, itself a tributary of the River Foyle, NW Ireland. The bedrock comprises poorly productive metasediments that are characterised by fracture porosity. We present the findings of a multi-disciplinary study that integrates new hydrochemical and mineralogical investigations with existing hydraulic, geophysical and structural data to identify the scales of groundwater flow and the nature of groundwater/bedrock interaction (chemical denudation). At the catchment scale, the development of deep weathering profiles is controlled by NE-SW regional scale fracture zones associated with mountain building during the Grampian orogeny. In-situ chemical denudation of mineral phases is controlled by micro- to meso-scale fractures related to Alpine compression during Palaeocene to Oligocene times. The alteration of primary muscovite, chlorite (clinochlore) and albite along the surfaces of these small-scale fractures has resulted in the precipitation of illite, montmorillonite and illite-montmorillonite clay admixtures. The interconnected but discontinuous nature of these small-scale structures highlights the role of larger scale faults and fissures in the supply and transportation of weathering solutions to/from the sites of mineral weathering. The dissolution of primarily mineral phases releases the major ions Mg, Ca and HCO3 that are shown to subsequently form the chemical makeup of groundwaters. Borehole groundwater and stream baseflow hydrochemical data are used to constrain the depths of groundwater flow pathways influencing the chemistry of surface waters throughout the stream profile. The results show that it is predominantly the lower part of the catchment, which receives inputs from catchment/regional scale groundwater flow, that is found to contribute to the maintenance of annual baseflow levels. This study identifies the importance of deep groundwater in maintaining annual baseflow levels in poorly productive bedrock systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi:10.1002/qj.2463

Application of Hydrometeorological Information for Short-term and Long-term Water Resources Management over Ungauged Basin in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ji-in; Ryu, Kyongsik; Suh, Ae-sook

2016-04-01

In 2014, three major governmental organizations that are Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), K-water, and Korea Rural Community Corporation have been established the Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center (HCC) to accomplish more effective water management for scarcely gauged river basins, where data are uncertain or non-consistent. To manage the optimal drought and flood control over the ungauged river, HCC aims to interconnect between weather observations and forecasting information, and hydrological model over sparse regions with limited observations sites in Korean peninsula. In this study, long-term forecasting ensemble models so called Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, provided by KMA was used in order to produce drought outlook. Glosea5 ensemble model prediction provides predicted drought information for 1 and 3 months ahead with drought index including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Also, Global Precipitation Measurement and Global Climate Observation Measurement - Water1 satellites data products are used to estimate rainfall and soil moisture contents over the ungauged region.

The Prediflood database. A new tool for an integrated approach to historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), AD 1033-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriendos, Mariano; Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Tuset, Jordi; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep

2014-05-01

Available information of historical floods can improve the management of hydroclimatic hazards. This approach is useful in ungauged basins or with short instrumental data series. On the other hand, flood risk is increasing due to both the expansion of human land occupation and the modification of rainfall patterns in the present global climatic change scenario. Within the Prediflood Project, we have designed an integrated database of historical floods in Catalonia with the aim to feed data to: 1) Meteorological reconstruction and modelling. 2) Hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction. 3) Human impacts evaluation, of these floods. The firsts steps of the database design focus on spatial location and on the quality of the data sources in three levels: 1) Historical documentary sources and newspapers contemporary with the floods. 2) Local historiography. 3) Technical reports. After the application of historiographical methodologies, more than 2300 flood records have been added to the database so far. Despite the completion of the database is still a work in progress, the firsts analyses are already underway and focus on the largest floods with catastrophic effects simultaneously on more than 15 catchments: November 1617, October 1787, September 1842, May 1853, September 1874, January 1898, October 1907, October 1940, September 1962, November 1982, October 1994 and others.

Assesment of future river habitat suitability under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy (Serio River, Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groppelli, B.; Confortola, G.; Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Rosso, R.

2011-12-01

We merge hydraulic river modelling, use of suitability functions for fish guild colonization and hydrological modelling of catchment response to investigate future (until 2100) hydrological cycle and fish habitat suitability for an Alpine catchment in Italy, Serio river (drainage area 450 Km2, average altitude 1300 m a.s.l., main channel length ca. 36 km). Based upon detailed river channel morphology data for 73 river sections and direct local investigation we then set up and tune a quasi 2-D (i.e. with floodplains) hydraulic model for in channel flows hydraulics, depending upon daily in stream discharge. We then evaluate distributed values of hydraulic variables and therein composite habitat suitability indexes CS for a representative target species (brown trout, Salmo Trutta Fario L.), resulting into usable wetted area WUA for fish colonization. We consider both juvenile JUV and adults AD, and we evaluate the frequency (days in a year/season) of yearly/seasonal, spatially distributed and bulk (whole stream) habitat quality. We then provide synthetic indicators of (yearly/seasonal) suitability level and duration within the river. We then set up a minimal (T, P), properly tuned hydrological model able to mimick Serio river's hydrological cycle. We then use downscaled future precipitation and temperature from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base chosen for the purpose based upon previous studies, to feed our hydrological model and provide projected hydrological regime of the catchment, together with modified habitat suitability. We then comment upon modified flow regime, habitat suitability as obtained and related uncertainty. The proposed results may be of use for river managers and may provide a template for investigation about future river habitat quality pending climate change.

A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2014-05-01

Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

Influence of geomorphological properties and stage on in-stream travel time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkesson, Anna; Wörman, Anders

2014-05-01

The travel time distribution within stream channels is known to vary non-linearly with stage (discharge), depending on the combined effects of geomorphologic, hydrodynamic and kinematic dispersions. This non-linearity, implying that stream network travel time generally decreases with increasing discharge is a factor that is important to account for in hydrological modelling - especially when making peak flow predictions where uncertainty is often high and large values can be at risk. Through hydraulic analysis of several stream networks, we analyse how travel time distributions varies with discharge. The principal focus is the coupling to the geomorphologic properties of stream networks with the final goal being to use this physically based information as a parameterisation tool of the streamflow component of hydrologic models. For each of the studied stream networks, a 1D, steady-state, distributed routing model was set up to determine the velocities in each reach during different flow conditions. Although the model (based in the Manning friction formula) is built on the presence of uniform conditions within sub-reaches, the model can in the stream network scale be considered to include effects of non-uniformity as supercritical conditions in sections of the stream network give rise to backwater effects that reduce the flow velocities in upstream reaches in the stream. By coupling the routing model to a particle tracking routine tracing water "parcels" through the stream network, the average travel time within the stream network can be determined quantitatively for different flow conditions. The data used to drive the model is digitised stream network maps, topographical data (DEMs). The model is not calibrated in any way, but is run for with different sets of parameters representing a span of possible friction coefficients and cross-sectional geometries as this information is not generally known. The routing model is implemented in several different stream networks (representing catchments of the spatial scale of a few hundred km2) in different geographic regions in Sweden displaying different geomorphological properties. Results show that the geomorphological properties (data that is often available in the form of maps and/or DEMs) of individual stream networks have major influence on the stream network travel times. By coupling the geomorphological information to general expressions for stage dependency, catchment-specific relationships of how the travel times within stream networks can be determined. Basing the parameterisation procedure of a hydrological model in physical catchment properties and process understanding rather than statistical parameterisation (based in how a catchment has responded in the past) - is believed to lead to more reliable hydrological predictions - during extreme conditions as well as during changing conditions such as climate change and landscape modifications, and/or when making predictions in ungauged basins.

A thermodynamic approach to link self-organization, preferential flow and rainfall-runoff behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zehe, E.; Ehret, U.; Blume, T.; Kleidon, A.; Scherer, U.; Westhoff, M.

2013-11-01

This study investigates whether a thermodynamically optimal hillslope structure can, if existent, serve as a first guess for uncalibrated predictions of rainfall-runoff. To this end we propose a thermodynamic framework to link rainfall-runoff processes and dynamics of potential energy, kinetic energy and capillary binding energy in catchments and hillslopes. The starting point is that hydraulic equilibrium in soil corresponds to local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), characterized by a local maximum entropy/minimum of free energy of soil water. Deviations from LTE occur either due to evaporative losses, which increase absolute values of negative capillary binding energy of soil water and reduce its potential energy, or due to infiltration of rainfall, which increases potential energy of soil water and reduces the strength of capillary binding energy. The amplitude and relaxation time of these deviations depend on climate, vegetation, soil hydraulic functions, topography and density of macropores. Based on this framework we analysed the free energy balance of hillslopes within numerical experiments that perturbed model structures with respect to the surface density of macropores. These model structures have been previously shown to allow successful long-term simulations of the water balances of the Weiherbach and the Malalcahuello catchments, which are located in distinctly different pedological and climatic settings. Our findings offer a new perspective on different functions of preferential flow paths depending on the pedological setting. Free energy dynamics of soil water in the cohesive soils of the Weiherbach is dominated by dynamics of capillary binding energy. Macropores act as dissipative wetting structures by enlarging water flows against steep gradients in soil water potential after long dry spells. This implies accelerated depletion of these gradients and faster relaxation back towards LTE. We found two local optima in macropore density that maximize reduction rates of free energy of soil water during rainfall-driven conditions. These two optima exist because reduction rates of free energy are, in this case, a second-order polynomial of the wetting rate, which implicitly depends on macroporosity. An uncalibrated long-term simulation of the water balance of the Weiherbach catchment based on the first optimum macroporosity performed almost as well as the best fit when macroporosity was calibrated to match rainfall-runoff. In the Malalcahuello catchment we did not find an apparent optimum density of macropores, because free energy dynamics of soil water during rainfall-driven conditions is dominated by increases of potential energy. Macropores act as dissipative drainage structures by enhancing export of potential energy. No optimum macropore density exists in this case because potential energy change rates scale linearly with the wetting rate. We found, however, a distinguished macroporosity that assures steady-state conditions of the potential energy balance of the soil, in the sense that average storage of potential energy is compensated by average potential energy export. This distinguished macroporosity was close to the value that yielded the best fit of rainfall-runoff behaviour during a calibration exercise and allowed a robust estimate of the annual runoff coefficient. Our findings are promising for predictions in ungauged catchments (PUB) as the optimal/distinguished model structures can serve as a first guess for uncalibrated predictions of rainfall-runoff. They also offer an alternative for classifying catchments according to their similarity of the free energy balance components.

Web-based modelling of energy, water and matter fluxes to support decision making in mesoscale catchments??the integrative perspective of GLOWA-Danube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.; Mauser, W.; Niemeyer, S.; Colgan, A.; Stolz, R.; Escher-Vetter, H.; Kuhn, M.; Reichstein, M.; Tenhunen, J.; Kraus, A.; Ludwig, M.; Barth, M.; Hennicker, R.

The GLOWA-initiative (Global Change of the water cycle), funded by the German Ministry of Research and Education (BMBF), has been established to address the manifold consequences of Global Change on regional water resources in a variety of catchment areas with different natural and cultural characteristics. Within this framework, the GLOWA-Danube project is dealing with the Upper Danube watershed as a representative mesoscale test site (∼75.000 km 2) for mountain-foreland regions in the temperate mid-latitudes. The principle objective is to identify, examine and develop new techniques of coupled distributed modelling for the integration of natural and socio-economic sciences. The transdisciplinary research in GLOWA-Danube develops an integrated decision support system, called DANUBIA, to investigate the sustainability of future water use. GLOWA-Danube, which is scheduled for a total run-time of eight years to operationally implement and establish DANUBIA, comprises a university-based network of experts with water-related competence in the fields of engineering, natural and social sciences. Co-operation with a network of stakeholders in water resources management of the Upper Danube catchment ensures that practical issues and future problems in the water sector of the region can be addressed. In order to synthesize a common understanding between the project partners, a standardized notation of parameters and functions and a platform-independent structure of computational methods and interfaces has been established, by making use of the unified modelling language, an industry standard for the structuring and co-ordination of large projects in software development [Booch et al., The Unified Modelling Language User Guide, Addison-Wesley, Reading, 1999]. DANUBIA is object-oriented, spatially distributed and raster-based at its core. It applies the concept of “proxels” (process pixels) as its basic objects, which have different dimensions depending on the viewing scale and connect to their environment through fluxes. The presented paper excerpts the hydrological view point of GLOWA-Danube, its approach of model coupling and network-based communication, and object-oriented techniques to simulate physical processes and interactions at the land surface. The mechanisms and technologies applied to communicate data and model parameters across the typical discipline borders are demonstrated from the perspective of the Landsurface object. It comprises the capabilities of interdependent expert models for energy exchange at various surface types, snowmelt, soil water movement, runoff formation and plant growth in a distributed Java-based modelling environment using the remote method invocation [Pitt et al., Java.rmi: The Remote Method Invocation Guide, Addison Wesley Professional, Reading, 2001, p. 320]. The presented text summarizes the GLOWA-Danube concept and shows the state of an implemented DANUBIA prototype after completion of the first project-year (2001).

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Falcone, James A.

2013-01-01

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

2016-04-01

Early detection of flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, is still challenging due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Also the rapid rising of waters necessarily limits the lead time of warnings to alert communities and activate effective emergency procedures. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km²) ungauged basins based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The current deterministic AIGA system has been run in real-time in the South of France since 2005 and has been tested in the RHYTMME project (rhytmme.irstea.fr/). It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced for implementing the national flash flood warning system for the entire French territory by 2016. To further extend the effective warning lead time, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to ingest Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts. The AROME-NWC system combines the most recent available observations with forecasts from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015). AROME-NWC pre-operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, produced every hour at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon, were provided for 3 significant rain events in September and November 2014 and ingested as time-lagged ensembles. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 185 basins in the South of France showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Brier Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. Planned enhancements include integrating additional probabilistic NWP products (e.g., AROME precipitation ensembles on longer forecast horizon), accounting for and reducing hydrologic uncertainties from the model parameters and initial conditions via data assimilation, and developing a comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi: 10.1002/qj.2463

Arctic-HYCOS: a Large Sample observing system for estimating freshwater fluxes in the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietroniro, Al; Korhonen, Johanna; Looser, Ulrich; Hardardóttir, Jórunn; Johnsrud, Morten; Vuglinsky, Valery; Gustafsson, David; Lins, Harry F.; Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Lammers, Richard; Stewart, Bruce; Abrate, Tommaso; Pilon, Paul; Sighomnou, Daniel; Arheimer, Berit

2015-04-01

The Arctic region is an important regulating component of the global climate system, and is also experiencing a considerable change during recent decades. More than 10% of world's river-runoff flows to the Arctic Ocean and there is evidence of changes in its fresh-water balance. However, about 30% of the Arctic basin is still ungauged, with differing monitoring practices and data availability from the countries in the region. A consistent system for monitoring and sharing of hydrological information throughout the Arctic region is thus of highest interest for further studies and monitoring of the freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean. The purpose of the Arctic-HYCOS project is to allow for collection and sharing of hydrological data. Preliminary 616 stations were identified with long-term daily discharge data available, and around 250 of these already provide online available data in near real time. This large sample will be used in the following scientific analysis: 1) to evaluate freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean and Seas, 2) to monitor changes and enhance understanding of the hydrological regime and 3) to estimate flows in ungauged regions and develop models for enhanced hydrological prediction in the Arctic region. The project is intended as a component of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) WHYCOS (World Hydrological Cycle Observing System) initiative, covering the area of the expansive transnational Arctic basin with participation from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden and United States of America. The overall objective is to regularly collect, manage and share high quality data from a defined basic network of hydrological stations in the Arctic basin. The project focus on collecting data on discharge and possibly sediment transport and temperature. Data should be provisional in near-real time if available, whereas time-series of historical data should be provided once quality assurance has been completed. The initial stages of the project will focus on collecting data on discharge and revise station selection criteria. For monitoring freshwater flow to oceans, stations close to the mouths of rivers and immediately inland for back-up purposes will be preferred. For studies of change emphasis is placed on hydrological regime stations located in headwaters small sub-catchments, including pristine basins. Stations outside the Arctic Ocean basin, such as at the mouth of the Yukon River, Baltic Sea and Hudson Bay, can also be considered to allow a better understanding of hydrological processes occurring in the general region. Countries shall facilitate, to the extent possible, access to their data currently published online, and also access to those not yet regularly published on the web. At a later stage data exchange standards such as WaterML2.0 will be implemented. The project will also perform pan-Arctic hydrological modelling (geo-statistical, deterministic and probabilistic methods) for the assessment and integration of observational and modelled data to improve estimates of ungauged discharge and the overall estimates of freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean, as well as understanding of hydrological processes.

Toward Improved Parameterization of a Meso-Scale Hydrologic Model in a Discontinuous Permafrost, Boreal Forest Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2013-12-01

The sub-arctic environment can be characterized as being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost is site specific, it dominates many of the hydrologic and ecologic responses and functions including vegetation distribution, stream flow, soil moisture, and storage processes. In this region, the boundaries that separate the major ecosystem types (deciduous dominated and coniferous dominated ecosystems) as well as permafrost (permafrost verses non-permafrost) occur over very short spatial scales. One of the goals of this research project is to improve parameterizations of meso-scale hydrologic models in this environment. Using the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CPCRW) as the test area, simulations of the headwater catchments of varying permafrost and vegetation distributions were performed. CPCRW, located approximately 50 km northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, is located within the zone of discontinuous permafrost and the boreal forest ecosystem. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was selected as the hydrologic model. In CPCRW, permafrost and coniferous vegetation is generally found on north facing slopes and valley bottoms. Permafrost free soils and deciduous vegetation is generally found on south facing slopes. In this study, hydrologic simulations using fine scale vegetation and soil parameterizations - based upon slope and aspect analysis at a 50 meter resolution - were conducted. Simulations were also conducted using downscaled vegetation from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (1 km resolution) and soil data sets from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (approximately 9 km resolution). Preliminary simulation results show that soil and vegetation parameterizations based upon fine scale slope/aspect analysis increases the R2 values (0.5 to 0.65 in the high permafrost (53%) basin; 0.43 to 0.56 in the low permafrost (2%) basin) relative to parameterization based on coarse scale data. These results suggest that using fine resolution parameterizations can be used to improve meso-scale hydrological modeling in this region.

Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

2008-01-01

A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Antecedent Wetness Conditions based on ERS scatterometer data in support to rainfall-runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.

2009-04-01

Despite of its small volume compared to other components of the hydrologic cycle, the soil moisture is of fundamental importance to many hydrological, meteorological, biological and biogeochemical processes. For storm rainfall-runoff modeling the estimation of the Antecedent Wetness Conditions (AWC) is one of the most important issues to determine the hydrological response. In this context, this study investigates the potential of the scatterometer on board of the ERS satellites for the assessment of soil wetness conditions at two different scales. The satellite soil moisture data set, available from 1992, is downloaded from the ERS/METOP Soil Moisture archive located at http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/radar/index.php?go=ascat. At the local scale, the scatterometer-derived soil wetness index (SWI) data (Wagner, W., Lemoine, G., and Rott, H., 1999. A Method for Estimating Soil Moisture from ERS Scatterometer and Soil Data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 70, 191-207) have been compared with two in-situ soil moisture data sets. At the catchment scale, the reliability of the SWI to estimate the AWC has been tested considering its relationship with the soil potential maximum retention parameter, S, of the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method for abstraction. The parameter S has been derived by considering several flood events occurred from 1992 to 2005 in different catchments of central Italy. The performance of two Antecedent Precipitation Indices (API) and one Base Flow Index (BFI), usually employed in the hydrological practice for the AWC assessment, have been compared with the SWI. The obtained results show a high accuracy of the SWI for the estimation of wetness conditions both at the local and catchment scale despite of the complex orography of the investigated areas (Brocca, L., Melone, F., Moramarco, T., Morbidelli, R., 2009. Antecedent wetness conditions based on ERS scatterometer data. Journal of Hydrology, 364 (1-2), 73-87). At the local scale, the SWI has been found quite reliable in representing the soil moisture at layer depth of 15 cm with average correlation coefficient equal to 0.81 and a root mean square error of ~ 0.04 m3/m3. In terms of AWC assessment at the catchment scale, the SWI has been found highly correlated with the observed S parameter with correlation coefficient equal to -0.90. Besides, SWI outperformed both API indices, poorly representative of AWC, and BFI. The methodology delineated in this study can be considered as a simple and entirely new approach to validate the remotely sensed soil moisture estimates at the catchment scale, mainly for coarse resolution sensors as scatterometers and radiometers. The obtained results indirectly reveal the usefulness of the SWI both for flood forecasting applications and for prediction in ungauged basins. Moreover, the correlation of in-situ soil moisture measurements with the SWI reveals the potential of scatterometer data, particularly considering the higher spatial resolution provided by the successor of ERS scatterometer, the Advanced Scatterometer, ASCAT, on board of the meteorological operational platforms, METOP.

Uncertainty prediction for PUB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendiondo, E. M.; Tucci, C. M.; Clarke, R. T.; Castro, N. M.; Goldenfum, J. A.; Chevallier, P.

2003-04-01

IAHS’ initiative of Prediction in Ungaged Basins (PUB) attempts to integrate monitoring needs and uncertainty prediction for river basins. This paper outlines alternative ways of uncertainty prediction which could be linked with new blueprints for PUB, thereby showing how equifinality-based models should be grasped using practical strategies of gauging like the Nested Catchment Experiment (NCE). Uncertainty prediction is discussed from observations of Potiribu Project, which is a NCE layout at representative basins of a suptropical biome of 300,000 km2 in South America. Uncertainty prediction is assessed at the microscale (1 m2 plots), at the hillslope (0,125 km2) and at the mesoscale (0,125 - 560 km2). At the microscale, uncertainty-based models are constrained by temporal variations of state variables with changing likelihood surfaces of experiments using Green-Ampt model. Two new blueprints emerged from this NCE for PUB: (1) the Scale Transferability Scheme (STS) at the hillslope scale and the Integrating Process Hypothesis (IPH) at the mesoscale. The STS integrates a multi-dimensional scaling with similarity thresholds, as a generalization of the Representative Elementary Area (REA), using spatial correlation from point (distributed) to area (lumped) process. In this way, STS addresses uncertainty-bounds of model parameters, into an upscaling process at the hillslope. In the other hand, the IPH approach regionalizes synthetic hydrographs, thereby interpreting the uncertainty bounds of streamflow variables. Multiscale evidences from Potiribu NCE layout show novel pathways of uncertainty prediction under a PUB perspective in representative basins of world biomes.

A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Dramais, Guillaume; Gérard, Simon; Le Coz, Jérôme; Legoût, Cédric; Molinié, Gilles; Van Baelen, Joel; Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre; Andrieu, Julien; Aubert, Coralie; Calianno, Martin; Delrieu, Guy; Grazioli, Jacopo; Hachani, Sahar; Horner, Ivan; Huza, Jessica; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Raupach, Timothy H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Uber, Magdalena; Vincendon, Béatrice; Wijbrans, Annette

2017-03-01

A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution ( ˜ km2, ˜ min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km2, 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100 m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Météo-France (including 2 m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10 m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km2) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling. DOI of the referenced dataset: doi:10.6096/MISTRALS-HyMeX.1438.

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

Characteristics of mesoscale vortices over China in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Yu; Sun, Jisong; Pan, Yinong

2017-12-01

Mesoscale vortices, which appear at middle and lower levels of rainstorms, are cyclonic circulations with a size ranging from tens of kilometers to several hundred kilometers. Mesoscale vortices often have close relationships with convective activities. The ERA-Interim dataset and an automatic vortex-searching method were used to identify the mesoscale vortices occurring over China in 2015 and their basic characteristics were analyzed. The mesoscale vortices are divided into three categories: mesoscale convective vortices, mesoscale stratiform vortices, and mesoscale dry vortices. The mesoscale convective vortices have the largest intensity, size, and duration, whereas the mesoscale dry vortices have the smallest. Mesoscale convective vortices are able to form in any direction of the parent mesoscale convective system, although the secondary convection tends to appear to the southeast of the parent vortices. The mesoscale vortices tend to generate in the transition area between high and low altitudes. The leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau is the main source region of mesoscale vortices in China. Most of vortices are generated at midday and midnight. The activities of mesoscale convective vortices and mesoscale stratiform vortices peak in summer, whereas those of the mesoscale dry vortices peak in winter.

Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Steeves, Peter A.; Guthrie, John D.; Ries, Kernell G.

2013-01-01

Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals) at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

Improving Water Balance Estimation in the Nile by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling: a Template for Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleason, C. J.; Wada, Y.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally, especially in international river basins. Remote sensing and water balance modelling are frequently cited as a potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on the same in decline gauge data to constrain or parameterize discharge estimates, thus creating a circular approach to estimating discharge inapplicable to ungauged basins. To address this, we here combine a discontinued gauge, remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at-many-stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and Landsat data, and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge for an ungauged time period for the Lower Nile (1978-present). Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 86 Landsat images and AMHG (1984-2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the hydrologic model. Our tuning methodology is purposefully simple and can be easily applied to any model without the need for calibration/parameterization. The resulting tuned modelled hydrograph shows large improvement in flow magnitude over previous modelled hydrographs, and validation of tuned monthly model output flows against the historical gauge yields an RMSE of 343 m3/s (33.7%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order-of-magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: modelled flows have a one-to two-month wet season lag and a negative bias. More sophisticated model calibration and training (e.g. data assimilation) is needed to improve upon our results, however, our results achieved by coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modelling of ungauged flows. This is especially true as massive cloud computing via Google Earth Engine makes our method easily applicable to any basin without current gauges. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

Prediction of Ungauged River Basin for Hydro Power Potential and Flood Risk Mitigation; a Case Study at Gin River, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnayake, A. S.

2011-12-01

The most of the primary civilizations of the world emerged in or near river valleys or floodplains. The river channels and floodplains are single hydrologic and geomorphic system. The failure to appreciate the integral connection between floodplains and channel underlies many socioeconomic and environmental problems in river management today. However it is a difficult task of collecting reliable field hydrological data. Under such situations either synthetic or statistically generated data were used for hydraulic engineering designing and flood modeling. The fundamentals of precipitation-runoff relationship through synthetic unit hydrograph for Gin River basin were prepared using the method of the Flood Studies Report of the National Environmental Research Council, United Kingdom (1975). The Triangular Irregular Network model was constructed using Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine hazard prone zones. The 1:10,000 and 1:50,000 topography maps and field excursions were also used for initial site selection of mini-hydro power units and determine flooding area. The turbines output power generations were calculated using the parameters of net head and efficiency of turbine. The peak discharge achieves within 4.74 hours from the onset of the rainstorm and 11.95 hours time takes to reach its normal discharge conditions of Gin River basin. Stream frequency of Gin River is 4.56 (Junctions/ km2) while the channel slope is 7.90 (m/km). The regional coefficient on the catchment is 0.00296. Higher stream frequency and gentle channel slope were recognized as the flood triggering factors of Gin River basin and other parameters such as basins catchment area, main stream length, standard average annual rainfall and soil do not show any significant variations with other catchments of Sri Lanka. The flood management process, including control of flood disaster, prepared for a flood, and minimize it impacts are complicated in human population encroached and modified floodplains. Thus modern GIS technology has been productively executed to prepare hazard maps based on the flood modeling and also it would be further utilized for disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. Five suitable hydraulic heads were recognized for mini-hydro power sites and it would be the most economical and applicable flood controlling hydraulic engineering structure considering all morphologic, climatic, environmental and socioeconomic proxies of the study area. Mini-hydro power sites also utilized as clean, eco friendly and reliable energy source (8630.0 kW). Finally Francis Turbine can be employed as the most efficiency turbine for the selected sites bearing in mind of both technical and economical parameters.

Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

2016-04-01

Floods are a common natural hazard in the Western Indian Himalayas. They usually occur when humid monsoon airs are lifted along the Himalayan relief, thereby creating intense orographic rainfall and runoff, a process which is often enhanced by simultaneous snowmelt. Monsoon floods are considered a major threat in the region and frequently affect inhabited valleys, disturbing the status quo of communities, stressing the future welfare and condition of their economic development. Given the assumption that ongoing and future climatic changes may impact on monsoon patterns and extreme precipitation, the implementation of adaptation policies in this region is critically needed in order to improve local resilience of Himalayan communities. However, its success implementation is highly dependent on system knowledge and hence reliable baseline data of past disasters. In this communication, we demonstrate how newly gained knowledge on past flood incidents may improve flood hazard and risk assessments. Based on growth-ring analysis of trees growing in the floodplains and other, more classical paleo-hydrology techniques, we reconstruct the regional flood activity for the last decades. This information is then included as non-systematic data into the regional flood frequency by using Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo Chain algorithms, so as to analyse the impact of the additional data on flood hazard assessments. Moreover, through a detailed analysis of three flood risk hotspots, we demonstrate how the newly gained knowledge on past flood disasters derived from indirect proxies can explain failures in the implementation of disaster risk management (DRM). Our methodology allowed identification of thirty-four unrecorded flood events at the study sites located in the upper reaches since the early 20th century, and thus completion of the existing flood history in the region based on flow measurements in the lower part of the catchment. We observe that 56% of the floods occurred simultaneously in more than two catchments, and that in 15% of the cases more than four catchments were affected. By contrast, 44% of event years were related with one specific catchment, corroborating the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions and specific weather and/or geomorphic conditions may operate as triggers of floods in Kullu district. The inclusion of peak discharge data related with these ungauged extreme flood events into the regional flood frequency evidenced that flood hazard was systematically underestimated. Our results allowed to highlight the potential causes of three paradigmatic cases of flood disaster incidents at Kullus district, suggesting that the lack of knowledge on past flood disaster could play an important role in Disaster Risk managment (DRM) at three actors-levels i.e. civil engineering, local authorities and inhabitants. These observations show that reliable DRM implementation is conditioned by lack of data to characterize the flood process, and therefore put in value the palaeohydrological approach used in this study.

Heavy rainfall induced flash flood management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, Markus; Steinbrich, Andreas; Stölzle, Michael; Leistert, Hannes

2016-04-01

Heavy rain induced flash floods are still a serious hazard. In context of climate change even a rise of threat potential of flash flood must be suspected. To improve prediction of endangered areas hydraulic models was developed in the past that implement topography information in heigh resolution, gathered by laser scan applications. To run such models it is crucial to estimate the runoff input spatial distributed. However, this information is usually derived with relatively simple models lacking the process rigour that is required for prediction in engaged basins. Though available rain runoff models are able to model runoff response integral for measured catchments they do not indicate the spatial distribution of processes. Moreover they are commonly calibrated to measured runoff data and not applicable in other environments. Since runoff generation is commonly not measured, a calibration on it is hardly possible. In this study, we present a new approach for quantification of runoff generation in height spatial and temporal resolution. A suited model needs to work without calibration in every given environment under any given conditions. It is possible to develop such a model by combining spatial distributed input data of land surface properties (e.g. soil, geology, land use, …) with worldwide findings of runoff generation research. We developed such a model for the state of Baden-Württemberg, what has an extensive pool of spatial data. E.g. a digital elevation model of 1*1m² resolution, degree of sealing of the earth surface in 1*1m² resolution, soil properties (1:50.000) and geology (1:200.000). Within the state of Baden-Württemberg different regions are situated, with distinct environmental characteristics concerning as well climate, soil properties, land use, topography and geology. The model was tested and validated by modelling 36 observed flood events in 13 mesoscale catchments representing the different regions of Baden-Württemberg as well as by modelling 7 large area (70 m²) sprinkler experiments on 5 different plots in different regions of Switzerland. It was found, that the model was able to reproduce the temporal runoff dynamics as well as the peak discharge and the runoff volume in both, mesoscale catchments and 70 m² plots. It works in every given environment under every given conditions as antecedent moisture and precipitation characteristics. Since it works well under given different conditions in different regions and on different scales without any calibration, it is predestinated for the purpose of quantification of runoff generation for flash floods while heavy rain events in the different regions of Baden-Württemberg. Therefore we have it applied on the whole area of Baden-Württemberg on a spatial resolution of 5*5m² to model the runoff generation for one hour precipitation events of the return period 50, 100 and 1000 years and different antecedent moisture conditions. The pattern and effects are studied in detail as well as other interesting features.

Integrated observation and modelling of runoff and sediments across different compartments of semi-arid catchments and channel networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronstert, Axel; Ramon, Batalla; Araújo José C., De; da Costa Alexandre, Cunha; Till, Francke; Andreas, Güntner; Jose, Lopez-Tarazon; George, Mamede; Müller Eva, N.

2010-05-01

About one-third of the global population currently lives in countries which experience conditions of water stress. Such regions, often located within dryland ecosystems, are exposed to the hazard that the available freshwater resources fail to meet the water demand in domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Water availability often relies on the retention of river runoff in artificial lakes and reservoirs. However, the water storage in reservoirs is often adversely affected by sedimentation as a result of soil erosion. Erosion of the land surface due to natural or anthropogenic reasons and deposition of the eroded material in reservoirs threatens the reliability of reservoirs as a source of water supply. To sustain future water supply, a quantification of the sediment export from large dryland catchments becomes indispensable. A comprehensive modelling framework for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale, with a particular focus on dryland regions, has been developed from a German, Catalonian and Brazilian team during the last decade. It includes novel components for erosion from erosion-prone hillslopes, sediment transfer, retention and re-mobilization through the river system and sediment distribution, trapping and transfer through a reservoir. The parameterisation for pilot catchments is based on field monitoring campaigns of water and sediment fluxes, the analysis of land-use patterns, and the identification of the sediment hot spots through remotely sensed data. We present results of erosion-prone landscape units, the role of sediment transport in the river system, and the sedimentation processes in reservoirs. The modelling studies demonstrate the wide range of environmental problems where the model may be employed to develop sustainable management strategies for land and water resources. Evaluation of scenarios (land use, climate change) combined with an integrated assessment of options in reservoir management opens the opportunity to address relevant questions of water management including problems of water yield, reservoir capacity and economical comparison of on-/ offsite sediment management.

Analysis and Model Based Assessment of Water Quality in European Mesoscale Forest Catchments with Different Management Strategies (a Climatic Gradient Approach)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares, Filipa; Schwaerzel, Kai; Nunes, João. Pedro; Feger, Karl-Heinz

2010-05-01

Forestry activities affect the environmental conditions of river basins by modifying soil properties and vegetation cover, leading to changes in e.g. runoff generation and routing, water yield or the trophic status of water bodies. Climate change is directly linked to forestry, since site-adapted sustainable forest management can buffer negative climate change impacts in river basins, while practices leading to over-harvesting or increasing wildfires can exacerbate these impacts. While studies relating hydrological processes with forestry practices or climate change have already been conducted, the combined impacts of both are rarely discussed. The main objective of the proposed work is to study the interactions between forest management and climate change and the effects of these upon water fluxes and water quality at the catchment scale, over medium to long-term periods and following an East-West climate gradient. Additional objectives are to increase knowledge about the relations between forest, water quality and soil conservation/degradation; and to improve the modelling of hydrological and matter transport processes in managed forests. The present poster shows a conceptual approach to understand this combined interaction by analysing an East-West climatic gradient (Ukraine-Germany-Portugal), with contrasting forestry practices and climate vulnerabilities. The activities within this workplan, to take place during the period 2010 - 2014, will be developed in close collaboration with several ongoing research projects in the host institution at the Dresden University of Technology (TUD) and in the University of Aveiro (UA). The Institute of Soil Science and Site-Ecology (ISSE) at TUD has an internationally renowned research tradition in forest hydrological topics using methods and findings from various (sub)disciplines in a multidisplinary approach. The measurement and simulation of forest catchments has also been a point of research at the Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) at UA. This work will profit greatly from the experience in both institutions, therefore enhancing knowledge exchange and collaboration between both parties.

Integrated modelling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Collet, Lila; Ruelland, Denis; Borrell-Estupina, Valérie; Dezetter, Alain; Servat, Eric

2013-09-01

Assessing water supply capacity is crucial to meet stakeholders' needs, notably in the Mediterranean region. This region has been identified as a climate change hot spot, and as a region where water demand is continuously increasing due to population growth and the expansion of irrigated areas. The Hérault River catchment (2500 km(2), France) is a typical example and a negative trend in discharge has been observed since the 1960s. In this context, local stakeholders need first to understand the processes controlling the evolution of water resources and demands in the past to latter evaluate future water supply capacity and anticipate the tensions users could be confronted to in the future. A modelling framework is proposed at a 10-day time step to assess whether water resources have been able to meet water demands over the last 50 years. Water supply was evaluated using hydrological modelling and a dam management model. Water demand dynamics were estimated for the domestic and agricultural sectors. A water supply capacity index is computed to assess the extent and the frequency to which water demand has been satisfied at the sub-basin scale. Simulated runoff dynamics were in good agreement with observations over the calibration and validation periods. Domestic water demand has increased considerably since the 1980s and is characterized by a seasonal peak in summer. Agricultural demand has increased in the downstream sub-basins and decreased upstream where irrigated areas have decreased. As a result, although most water demands were satisfied between 1961 and 1980, irrigation requirements in summer have sometimes not been satisfied since the 1980s. This work is the first step toward evaluating possible future changes in water allocation capacity in the catchment, using future climate change, dam management and water use scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

2016-02-01

This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the dominant processes associated with different landscape types, and the spatial relations of catchment processes. This article was corrected on 14 MAR 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Evaluation of soil erosion as a basis of sediment yield in mountainous catchments: a preliminary study in the River Douro Basin (Northern Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, Anabela; Martinho Lourenço, José M.; Parker, Andrew; Alencoão, Ana

2013-04-01

The River Corgo drains a meso-scale mountainous rural catchment with an area of 295 km2, underlain by crystalline rocks, in a temperate climate, which integrates the transboundary River Douro Basin, in the northeast of Portugal. A geochemical survey on oxic fluvial sediments of the river network shows considerable contents of metals associated to the finer particles (< 63um). The results on the study of the sediment properties indicate that these are essentially detrital in origin, derived from soils and weathering products. Moreover, taking into account the hydrological pattern of the catchment, the seasonal and spatial variability of metal contents associated to the sediments suggests that the control of metal in the sediments by their mineralogical, geochemical and physical properties is governed primarily at the level of the basin soils system, especially in the Wet Period, when the sediments are frequently remobilised (Reis, 2010). Although the soil particles are a common pathway of transport and entrance of metals in the fluvial network by runoff derived erosion, this mechanism is naturally more marked in mountainous catchments. Modelling sediment and adsorbed contaminant transport within catchments can help to identify possible contaminant sources, as well as to estimate the delivered quantities of eroded material and associated contaminants. In catchments with the described morphological features, monitoring the transport of sediments poses some issues concerning: (a) the low mass yield of suspended sediment from river water, under low-flow conditions; (b) the maintenance of the sediment sampler's devices in the streams, in periods of high-flow or storm events. This study describes the preliminary results of a GIS-based mass balance model of overland sediment transport to the River. The erosion, the first step of sediment transport, was estimated by an empirical model - The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The objective was to construct a GIS based potential soil loss spatial index model and posteriorly estimate the sediment yield for different locations within the catchment. The R factor was obtained from the literature; K factor was derived from the Soil Map of Trás-os-Montes; LS factor was calculated from the elevation digital model using the Simms et al. (2003) equation; C and P factors were derived from the Corin Land Cover Map produced for Portugal in 2006. The preliminary results indicate that the model is in accordance with the knowledge of the study area, and can be used as an initial indicator of areas of potential sediment source. So, the results show that potential loss is typically higher along the areas where the tributaries are deeply incised and bordered by steeper slopes, with locally extreme values. REFERENCES REIS, A. R. (2010) - Occurrence and mobilisation of non-organic micro-pollutants in mountainous riverine systems. PhD Thesis (unpublished), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, 453 pp. SIMMS, A., WOODROFFE, C. & JONES, B. (2003) - Application of RUSLE for erosion management in a coastal catchment, southern NSW. MODSIM 2003: Intern. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, vol.2, Integrative Modelling of Biophysical, Social and Economic Systems for Resource Management Solutions, Australia, pp. 678-683.

Potential of remotely-sensed data for mapping sediment connectivity pathways and their seasonal changes in dryland environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, Saskia; Wilczok, Charlotte; Brosinsky, Arlena; Kroll, Anja; Segl, Karl; Francke, Till

2014-05-01

Many drylands are characterized by strong erosion in headwater catchments, where connectivity processes play an important role in the redistribution of water and sediments. Sediment connectivity relates to the physical transfer of sediment through a drainage basin (Bracken and Croke 2007). The identification of sediment source areas and the way they connect to the channel network are essential to environmental management (Reid et al. 2007), especially where high erosion and sediment delivery rates occur. Vegetation cover and its spatial and temporal pattern is one of the main factors affecting sediment connectivity. This is particularly true for patchy vegetation covers typical for dryland environments. While many connectivity studies are based on field-derived data, the potential of remotely-sensed data for sediment connectivity analyses has not yet been fully exploited. Recent advances in remote sensing allow for quantitative, spatially explicit, catchment-wide derivation of surface information to be used in connectivity analyses. These advances include a continuous increase in spatial image resolution to comprise processes at the plot to hillslope to catchment scale, an increase in the temporal resolution to cover seasonal and long-term changes and an increase in the spectral resolution enabling the discrimination of dry and green vegetation fractions from soil surfaces in heterogeneous dryland landscapes. The utilization of remotely-sensed data for connectivity studies raises questions on what type of information is required, how scale of sediment flux and image resolution match, how the connectivity information can be incorporated into water and sediment transport models and how this improves model predictions. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the potential of remotely-sensed data for mapping sediment connectivity pathways and their seasonal change at the example of a mesoscale dryland catchment in the Spanish Pyrenees. Here, sediment connectivity pathways have been mapped for two adjacent sub-catchments (approx. 70 km²) of the Isábena River in different seasons using a quantitative connectivity index based on fractional vegetation cover and topography data. Fractional cover of green and dry vegetation, bare soil and rock were derived by applying a Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis approach applied to a hyperspectral image dataset. Sediment connectivity was mapped using the Index of Connectivity (Borselli et al. 2008), in which the effect of land cover on runoff and sediment fluxes is expressed by a spatially distributed weighing factor (in this study, the cover and management factor of the RUSLE). The resulting connectivity maps show that areas behave very differently with regard to connectivity, depending on the land cover but also on the spatial distribution of vegetation abundances and topographic barriers. Most parts of the catchment show higher connectivity values in summer than in spring. The studied sub-catchments show a slightly different connectivity behaviour reflecting the different land cover proportions and their spatial configuration. Future work includes the incorporation of sediment connectivity information into a hydrological model (WASA-SED, Mueller et al. 2010) to better reflect connectivity processes and testing the sensitivity of the model to different input data.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

CrowdWater - Can people observe what models need?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meerveld, I. H. J.; Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; Etter, S.; Strobl, B.

2017-12-01

CrowdWater (www.crowdwater.ch) is a citizen science project that explores the usefulness of crowd-sourced data for hydrological model calibration and prediction. Hydrological models are usually calibrated based on observed streamflow data but it is likely easier for people to estimate relative stream water levels, such as the water level above or below a rock, than streamflow. Relative stream water levels may, therefore, be a more suitable variable for citizen science projects than streamflow. In order to test this assumption, we held surveys near seven different sized rivers in Switzerland and asked more than 450 volunteers to estimate the water level class based on a picture with a virtual staff gauge. The results show that people can generally estimate the relative water level well, although there were also a few outliers. We also asked the volunteers to estimate streamflow based on the stick method. The median estimated streamflow was close to the observed streamflow but the spread in the streamflow estimates was large and there were very large outliers, suggesting that crowd-based streamflow data is highly uncertain. In order to determine the potential value of water level class data for model calibration, we converted streamflow time series for 100 catchments in the US to stream level class time series and used these to calibrate the HBV model. The model was then validated using the streamflow data. The results of this modeling exercise show that stream level class data are useful for constraining a simple runoff model. Time series of only two stream level classes, e.g. above or below a rock in the stream, were already informative, especially when the class boundary was chosen towards the highest stream levels. There was hardly any improvement in model performance when more than five water level classes were used. This suggests that if crowd-sourced stream level observations are available for otherwise ungauged catchments, these data can be used to constrain a simple runoff model and to generate simulated streamflow time series from the level observations.

Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss for the sustainable management of a wet semi-arid watershed cluster.

PubMed

Rejani, R; Rao, K V; Osman, M; Srinivasa Rao, Ch; Reddy, K Sammi; Chary, G R; Pushpanjali; Samuel, Josily

2016-03-01

The ungauged wet semi-arid watershed cluster, Seethagondi, lies in the Adilabad district of Telangana in India and is prone to severe erosion and water scarcity. The runoff and soil loss data at watershed, catchment, and field level are necessary for planning soil and water conservation interventions. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a spatial soil loss estimation model for Seethagondi cluster using RUSLE coupled with ARCGIS and was used to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally. The daily rainfall data of Aphrodite for the period from 1951 to 2007 was used, and the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean annual rainfall of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1). Considerable variation in land use land cover especially in crop land and fallow land was observed during normal and drought years, and corresponding variation in the erosivity, C factor, and soil loss was also noted. The mean value of C factor derived from NDVI for crop land was 0.42 and 0.22 in normal year and drought years, respectively. The topography is undulating and major portion of the cluster has slope less than 10°, and 85.3% of the cluster has soil loss below 20 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land varied from 2.9 to 3.6 t ha(-1) year(-1) in low rainfall years to 31.8 to 34.7 t ha(-1) year(-1) in high rainfall years with a mean annual soil loss of 12.2 t ha(-1) year(-1). The soil loss from crop land was higher in the month of August with an annual soil loss of 13.1 and 2.9 t ha(-1) year(-1) in normal and drought year, respectively. Based on the soil loss in a normal year, the interventions recommended for 85.3% of area of the watershed includes agronomic measures such as contour cultivation, graded bunds, strip cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotations, mulching, summer plowing, vegetative bunds, agri-horticultural system, and management practices such as broad bed furrow, raised sunken beds, and harvesting available water using farm ponds and percolation tanks. This methodology can be adopted for estimating the soil loss from similar ungauged watersheds with deficient data and for planning suitable soil and water conservation interventions for the sustainable management of the watersheds.

Mesoscale Ionospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

Mesoscale Ionospheric Prediction Gary S. Bust 10000 Burnet Austin Texas, 78758 phone: (512) 835-3623 fax: (512) 835-3808 email: gbust...time-evolving non-linear numerical model of the mesoscale ionosphere , second to couple the mesoscale model to a mesoscale data assimilative analysis...third to use the new data-assimilative mesoscale model to investigate ionospheric structure and plasma instabilities, and fourth to apply the data

Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

2011-01-01

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.

EMC: Mission Statement

Science.gov Websites

EMC: Mission Statement Mesoscale Modeling Branch Mission Statement The Mesoscale Modeling Branch , advanced numerical techniques applied to mesoscale modeling problems, parameterization of mesoscale new observing systems. The Mesoscale Modeling Branch publishes research results in various media for

Hydrological Relevant Parameters from Remote Sensing - Spatial Modelling Input and Validation Basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochschild, V.

2012-12-01

This keynote paper will demonstrate how multisensoral remote sensing data is used as spatial input for mesoscale hydrological modeling as well as for sophisticated validation purposes. The tasks of Water Resources Management are subject as well as the role of remote sensing in regional catchment modeling. Parameters derived from remote sensing discussed in this presentation will be land cover, topographical information from digital elevation models, biophysical vegetation parameters, surface soil moisture, evapotranspiration estimations, lake level measurements, determination of snow covered area, lake ice cycles, soil erosion type, mass wasting monitoring, sealed area, flash flood estimation. The actual possibilities of recent satellite and airborne systems are discussed, as well as the data integration into GIS and hydrological modeling, scaling issues and quality assessment will be mentioned. The presentation will provide an overview of own research examples from Germany, Tibet and Africa (Ethiopia, South Africa) as well as other international research activities. Finally the paper gives an outlook on upcoming sensors and concludes the possibilities of remote sensing in hydrology.

Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

Identification of nitrate sources and discharge-depending nitrate dynamics in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christin; Strachauer, Ulrike; Brauns, Mario; Musolff, Andreas; Kunz, Julia Vanessa; Brase, Lisa; Tarasova, Larisa; Merz, Ralf; Knöller, Kay

2017-04-01

During the last decades, nitrate concentrations in surface and groundwater have increased due to land use change and accompanying application of fertilizer in agriculture as well as increased atmospheric deposition. To mitigate nutrient impacts on downstream aquatic ecosystems, it is important to quantify potential nitrate sources, instream nitrate processing and its controls in a river system. The objective of this project is to characterize and quantify (regional) scale dynamics and trends in water and nitrogen fluxes of the entire Holtemme river catchment in central Germany making use of isotopic fingerprinting methods. Here we compare two key date sampling campaigns in 2014 and 2015, with spatially highly resolved measurements of discharge at 23 sampling locations including 11 major tributaries and 12 locations at the main river. Additionally, we have data from continuous runoff measurements at 10 locations operated by the local water authorities. Two waste water treatment plants contribute nitrogen to the Holtemme stream. This contribution impacts nitrate loads and nitrate isotopic signatures depending on the prevailing hydrological conditions. Nitrogen isotopic signatures in the catchment are mainly controlled by different sources (nitrified soil nitrogen in the headwater and manure/ effluents from WWTPs in the lowlands) and increase with raising nitrate concentrations along the main river. Nitrate loads at the outlet of the catchment are extremely different between both sampling campaigns (2014: NO3- = 97 t a-1, 2015: NO3- = 5 t a-1) which is associated with various runoff (2014: 0.8 m3 s-1, 2015: 0.2 m3 s-1). In 2015, the inflow from WWTP's raises the NO3- loads and enriches δ18O-NO3 values. Generally, oxygen isotope signatures from nitrate are more variable and are controlled by biogeochemical processes in concert with the oxygen isotopic composition of the ambient water. Elevated δ18O-NO3 in 2015 are most likely due to higher temperatures and lower discharge resulting in a higher impact of evaporation on water isotopes and a higher/different level of biological activity (esp. in the WWTP). Enriched isotope values for nitrogen and oxygen are not indicative of a significant impact of bacterial denitrification, because they are accompanied by increased nitrate concentrations (1 to 16 mg L-1). Based on the presented study, 50 % of the nitrate export from the Holtemme river catchment can be attributed to WWTP effluent. The remaining amount is related to agricultural land use. Consequently, nitrate load reduction in the river system cannot rely on internal processing but needs to be regulated by preventive measures especially by an improved wastewater treatment and land use management.

Superimposing various biophysical and social scales in a rapidly changing rural area (SW Niger)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Christian; Massuel, Sylvain; Favreau, Guillaume; Cappelaere, Bernard; Leblanc, Marc; Bachir, Salifou; Ousmane, Boureïma

2014-05-01

In SW Niger, close to Niamey, a detailed hydrological survey has been developed for the last 20 years (international experiments HAPEX-SAHEL and later AMMA), investigating the distribution of water in atmosphere, surface, soil and aquifers. It covers an area of about 10 000 km2, with a series of imbricated scales of instrumentation, in time and space. This dense long term field observation led to many major scientific results. Among them, one of the most original and paradoxical is the continuous rise of the water table, even during the severe droughts of the 1970s and 1980s (about 3 m in the last 30 years). In spite of a large apparent homogeneity of the biophysical environment throughout the region, numerous heterogeneities exist at different scales, complicating the hydrological analysis. On the surface, the hydrological system was, ~6000 years ago, a structured drainage network leading to the Niger River. It was later broken into much smaller elements by aeolian dunes deposited during arid episodes and the study area now appears as a juxtaposition of hundreds of small endorheic catchments (most often 1 to 20 km2) where the surface runoff finally ends in temporary ponds. During most violent rainy events, erosion can be locally very severe and modify durably the size of the catchment and the local hydrology. Conversely, during smaller rainy events, surface runoff may never reach the ponds because it infiltrates in more permeable zones at mid-slope. The actual surface area of the catchment contributing to the surface runoff thus varies considerably with time. Because of their great number, only a few catchments are instrumented and extrapolation of measurements to ungauged catchments is an additional difficulty. Most of water temporarily stored in ponds infiltrates and recharges groundwater. The Continental Terminal (CT) aquifer system is made of three independent layers, of which the upper one (CT3) is only considered here. The CT aquifer systems is a transboundary aquifer that extends far beyond the study area, over about 150 000 km2. It is also heterogeneous. Like surface flows, but at a different scale, groundwater flows are marked by a strong endorheism. For example the Dantiandou closed piezometric depression extends over about approximately 5000 km2. These natural closed depressions are explained only by evapotranspiration uptake, weak in absolute terms (a few mm.a-1) but with a very high impact on hydrodynamics because of poor permeability and porosity. Both density of observations and hydraulic continuity of the CT3 aquifer give a fine idea of groundwater changes in the whole area. Human activities, continuously adapting in this poor rural area, add another complexity to the hydrological diversity in surface and ground water. The replacement of the natural vegetation with millet fields and fallow increased the surface runoff, and consequently water accumulation in temporary pools and then CT3 recharge. In the SE part of the study area, the water table has risen up to outcropping in the lowest valley bottoms. These new permanent ponds reflect groundwater while temporary ponds still reflect surface dynamics. This new component of the hydrological landscape induces several consequences, in physical and human dimensions. Evaporation strongly affects the permanent water and increases its salinity while the natural mineralization of groundwater is very low. The easier access to water resources allows a significant development of local gardening, which modifies the social functioning of villages (e.g. land rights between villages and within a village, diversification of crops and sources of income, new sales channels). Different physically based models (for surface and ground water) were built, with a significant discrepancy between their respective quantification of water flows at the region scale. Extrapolation of surface fluxes from the few instrumented catchments to a much larger mosaic of non-instrumented catchments is only partially compatible with the geochemical and hydrodynamic calculations for the CT3 aquifer. This leads to many questions about the representativeness of instrumentation (in spite of dense observations), the heterogeneity of the landscape (perhaps even stronger than supposed, complementarities and differences between methods, etc.). Similarly, the diversity and evolution of human behaviours facing new situations (population growth, environmental changes) are essential elements to take into account, not always easily accessible to hydrologists.

Development and analysis of prognostic equations for mesoscale kinetic energy and mesoscale (subgrid scale) fluxes for large-scale atmospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avissar, Roni; Chen, Fei

1993-01-01

Generated by landscape discontinuities (e.g., sea breezes) mesoscale circulation processes are not represented in large-scale atmospheric models (e.g., general circulation models), which have an inappropiate grid-scale resolution. With the assumption that atmospheric variables can be separated into large scale, mesoscale, and turbulent scale, a set of prognostic equations applicable in large-scale atmospheric models for momentum, temperature, moisture, and any other gaseous or aerosol material, which includes both mesoscale and turbulent fluxes is developed. Prognostic equations are also developed for these mesoscale fluxes, which indicate a closure problem and, therefore, require a parameterization. For this purpose, the mean mesoscale kinetic energy (MKE) per unit of mass is used, defined as E-tilde = 0.5 (the mean value of u'(sub i exp 2), where u'(sub i) represents the three Cartesian components of a mesoscale circulation (the angle bracket symbol is the grid-scale, horizontal averaging operator in the large-scale model, and a tilde indicates a corresponding large-scale mean value). A prognostic equation is developed for E-tilde, and an analysis of the different terms of this equation indicates that the mesoscale vertical heat flux, the mesoscale pressure correlation, and the interaction between turbulence and mesoscale perturbations are the major terms that affect the time tendency of E-tilde. A-state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model is used to investigate the relationship between MKE, landscape discontinuities (as characterized by the spatial distribution of heat fluxes at the earth's surface), and mesoscale sensible and latent heat fluxes in the atmosphere. MKE is compared with turbulence kinetic energy to illustrate the importance of mesoscale processes as compared to turbulent processes. This analysis emphasizes the potential use of MKE to bridge between landscape discontinuities and mesoscale fluxes and, therefore, to parameterize mesoscale fluxes generated by such subgrid-scale landscape discontinuities in large-scale atmospheric models.

A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Cheng

2016-03-12

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Integrating satellite actual evapotranspiration patterns into distributed model parametrization and evaluation for a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, M. C.; Mai, J.; Stisen, S.; Mendiguren González, G.; Koch, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2016-12-01

Distributed hydrologic models are traditionally calibrated and evaluated against observations of streamflow. Spatially distributed remote sensing observations offer a great opportunity to enhance spatial model calibration schemes. For that it is important to identify the model parameters that can change spatial patterns before the satellite based hydrologic model calibration. Our study is based on two main pillars: first we use spatial sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters controlling the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET). Second, we investigate the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). This distributed model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the calibration of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) directly as input. In addition the simulated AET can be estimated at the spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed using MODIS data. We introduce a new dynamic scaling function employing remotely sensed vegetation to downscale coarse reference evapotranspiration. In total, 17 parameters of 47 mHM parameters are identified using both sequential screening and Latin hypercube one-at-a-time sampling methods. The spatial patterns are found to be sensitive to the vegetation parameters whereas streamflow dynamics are sensitive to the PTF parameters. The results of multi-objective model calibration show that calibration of mHM against observed streamflow does not reduce the spatial errors in AET while they improve only the streamflow simulations. We will further examine the results of model calibration using only multi spatial objective functions measuring the association between observed AET and simulated AET maps and another case including spatial and streamflow metrics together.

Flood mapping in ungauged basins using fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, Salvatore; Petroselli, Andrea; Arcangeletti, Ettore; Nardi, Fernando

2013-04-01

SummaryIn this work, a fully-continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood mapping is introduced and tested. It is characterized by a simulation of a long rainfall time series at sub-daily resolution that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing a discharge time series that is directly given as an input to a bi-dimensional hydraulic model. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the use of the design hyetograph and the design hydrograph that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty for standard methods. The proposed procedure is optimized for small and ungauged watersheds where empirical models are commonly applied. Results of a simple real case study confirm that this experimental fully-continuous framework may pave the way for the implementation of a less subjective and potentially automated procedure for flood hazard mapping.

NEW STUDIES OF URBAN FLOOD FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1986-01-01

Five reports dealing with flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas in the southeastern United States have been published during the past 2 years by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). These reports are based on data collected in Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; and several cities in Alabama and Tennessee. Each report contains regression equations useful for estimating flood peaks for selected recurrence intervals at ungauged urban sites. A nationwide study of urban flood characteristics by the USGS published in 1983 contains equations for estimating urban peak discharges for ungauged sites. At the time that the nationwide study was conducted, data from only 35 sites in the southeastern United States were available. The five new reports contain data for 88 additional sites. These new data show that the seven-parameter estimating equations developed in the nationwide study are unbiased and have prediction errors less than those described in the nationwide report.

Discharge Estimation in Ungauged Basins Through Variational Data Assimilation: The Potential of the SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubanas, H.; Gejadze, I.; Malaterre, P.-O.; Durand, M.; Wei, R.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Domeneghetti, A.

2018-03-01

Space-borne instruments can measure river water surface elevation, slope, and width. Remote sensing of river discharge in ungauged basins is far more challenging, however. This work investigates the estimation of river discharge from simulated observations of the forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission using a variant of the classical variational data assimilation method "4D-Var." The variational assimilation scheme simultaneously estimates discharge, river bathymetry, and bed roughness in the context of a 1.5 D full Saint-Venant hydraulic model. Algorithms and procedures are developed to apply the method to fully ungauged basins. The method was tested on the Po and Sacramento Rivers. The SWOT hydrology simulator was used to produce synthetic SWOT observations at each overpass time by simulating the interaction of SWOT radar measurements with the river water surface and nearby land surface topography at a scale of approximately 1 m, thus accounting for layover, thermal noise, and other effects. SWOT data products were synthesized by vectorizing the simulated radar returns, leading to height and width estimates at 200 m increments along the river centerlines. The ingestion of simulated SWOT data generally led to local improvements on prior bathymetry and roughness estimates which allowed the prediction of river discharge at the overpass times with relative root mean squared errors of 12.1% and 11.2% for the Po and Sacramento Rivers, respectively. Nevertheless, equifinality issues that arise from the simultaneous estimation of bed elevation and roughness may prevent their use for different applications, other than discharge estimation through the presented framework.

Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

The importance of topography controlled sub-grid process heterogeneity in distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijzink, R. C.; Samaniego, L.; Mai, J.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Schäfer, D.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Hrachowitz, M.

2015-12-01

Heterogeneity of landscape features like terrain, soil, and vegetation properties affect the partitioning of water and energy. However, it remains unclear to which extent an explicit representation of this heterogeneity at the sub-grid scale of distributed hydrological models can improve the hydrological consistency and the robustness of such models. In this study, hydrological process complexity arising from sub-grid topography heterogeneity was incorporated in the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Seven study catchments across Europe were used to test whether (1) the incorporation of additional sub-grid variability on the basis of landscape-derived response units improves model internal dynamics, (2) the application of semi-quantitative, expert-knowledge based model constraints reduces model uncertainty; and (3) the combined use of sub-grid response units and model constraints improves the spatial transferability of the model. Unconstrained and constrained versions of both, the original mHM and mHMtopo, which allows for topography-based sub-grid heterogeneity, were calibrated for each catchment individually following a multi-objective calibration strategy. In addition, four of the study catchments were simultaneously calibrated and their feasible parameter sets were transferred to the remaining three receiver catchments. In a post-calibration evaluation procedure the probabilities of model and transferability improvement, when accounting for sub-grid variability and/or applying expert-knowledge based model constraints, were assessed on the basis of a set of hydrological signatures. In terms of the Euclidian distance to the optimal model, used as overall measure for model performance with respect to the individual signatures, the model improvement achieved by introducing sub-grid heterogeneity to mHM in mHMtopo was on average 13 %. The addition of semi-quantitative constraints to mHM and mHMtopo resulted in improvements of 13 and 19 % respectively, compared to the base case of the unconstrained mHM. Most significant improvements in signature representations were, in particular, achieved for low flow statistics. The application of prior semi-quantitative constraints further improved the partitioning between runoff and evaporative fluxes. Besides, it was shown that suitable semi-quantitative prior constraints in combination with the transfer function based regularization approach of mHM, can be beneficial for spatial model transferability as the Euclidian distances for the signatures improved on average by 2 %. The effect of semi-quantitative prior constraints combined with topography-guided sub-grid heterogeneity on transferability showed a more variable picture of improvements and deteriorations, but most improvements were observed for low flow statistics.

The importance of topography-controlled sub-grid process heterogeneity and semi-quantitative prior constraints in distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijzink, Remko C.; Samaniego, Luis; Mai, Juliane; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Zink, Matthias; Schäfer, David; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Hrachowitz, Markus

2016-03-01

Heterogeneity of landscape features like terrain, soil, and vegetation properties affects the partitioning of water and energy. However, it remains unclear to what extent an explicit representation of this heterogeneity at the sub-grid scale of distributed hydrological models can improve the hydrological consistency and the robustness of such models. In this study, hydrological process complexity arising from sub-grid topography heterogeneity was incorporated into the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Seven study catchments across Europe were used to test whether (1) the incorporation of additional sub-grid variability on the basis of landscape-derived response units improves model internal dynamics, (2) the application of semi-quantitative, expert-knowledge-based model constraints reduces model uncertainty, and whether (3) the combined use of sub-grid response units and model constraints improves the spatial transferability of the model. Unconstrained and constrained versions of both the original mHM and mHMtopo, which allows for topography-based sub-grid heterogeneity, were calibrated for each catchment individually following a multi-objective calibration strategy. In addition, four of the study catchments were simultaneously calibrated and their feasible parameter sets were transferred to the remaining three receiver catchments. In a post-calibration evaluation procedure the probabilities of model and transferability improvement, when accounting for sub-grid variability and/or applying expert-knowledge-based model constraints, were assessed on the basis of a set of hydrological signatures. In terms of the Euclidian distance to the optimal model, used as an overall measure of model performance with respect to the individual signatures, the model improvement achieved by introducing sub-grid heterogeneity to mHM in mHMtopo was on average 13 %. The addition of semi-quantitative constraints to mHM and mHMtopo resulted in improvements of 13 and 19 %, respectively, compared to the base case of the unconstrained mHM. Most significant improvements in signature representations were, in particular, achieved for low flow statistics. The application of prior semi-quantitative constraints further improved the partitioning between runoff and evaporative fluxes. In addition, it was shown that suitable semi-quantitative prior constraints in combination with the transfer-function-based regularization approach of mHM can be beneficial for spatial model transferability as the Euclidian distances for the signatures improved on average by 2 %. The effect of semi-quantitative prior constraints combined with topography-guided sub-grid heterogeneity on transferability showed a more variable picture of improvements and deteriorations, but most improvements were observed for low flow statistics.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

EPA Science Inventory

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predic...

Prediction of seasonal runoff in ungauged basins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many regions of the world experience strong seasonality in climate (i.e. precipitation and temperature), and strong seasonal runoff variability. Predictable patterns in seasonal water availability are of significant benefit to society because they allow reliable planning and infrastructure developme...

Validation of mesoscale models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, Bill; Warner, Tom; Benjamin, Stan; Koch, Steve; Staniforth, Andrew

1993-01-01

The topics discussed include the following: verification of cloud prediction from the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model; results form MAPS/NGM verification comparisons and MAPS observation sensitivity tests to ACARS and profiler data; systematic errors and mesoscale verification for a mesoscale model; and the COMPARE Project and the CME.

Apparatus and method for determining microscale interactions based on compressive sensors such as crystal structures

DOEpatents

McAdams, Harley; AlQuraishi, Mohammed

2015-04-21

Techniques for determining values for a metric of microscale interactions include determining a mesoscale metric for a plurality of mesoscale interaction types, wherein a value of the mesoscale metric for each mesoscale interaction type is based on a corresponding function of values of the microscale metric for the plurality of the microscale interaction types. A plurality of observations that indicate the values of the mesoscale metric are determined for the plurality of mesoscale interaction types. Values of the microscale metric are determined for the plurality of microscale interaction types based on the plurality of observations and the corresponding functions and compressed sensing.

The impact of land-surface wetness heterogeneity on mesoscale heat fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Fei; Avissar, Roni

1994-01-01

Vertical heat fluxes associated with mesoscale circulations generated by land-surface wetness discontinuities are often stronger than turbulent fluxes, especially in the upper part of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer. As a result, they contribute significantly to the subgrid-scale fluxes in large-scale atmospheric models. Yet they are not considered in these models. To provide some insights into the possible parameterization of these fluxes in large-scale models, a state-of-the-art mesoscale numerical model was used to investigate the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and atmospheric and land-surface characteristics that play a key role in the generation of mesoscale circulations. The distribution of land-surface wetness, the wavenumber and the wavelength of the land-surface discontinuities, and the large-scale wind speed have a significant impact on the mesoscale heat fluxes. Empirical functions were derived to characterize the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and the spatial distribution of land-surface wetness. The strongest mesoscale heat fluxes were obtained for a wavelength of forcing corresponding approximately to the local Rossby deformation radius. The mesoscale heat fluxes are weakened by large-scale background winds but remain significant even with moderate winds.

Characterizing Macro Scale Patterns Of Uncertainty For Improved Operational Flood Forecasting Over The Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Hong, Y.

2015-12-01

The macro scale patterns of simulated streamflow errors are studied in order to characterize uncertainty in a hydrologic modeling system forced with the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS; http://mrms.ou.edu) quantitative precipitation estimates for flood forecasting over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The hydrologic model is centerpiece of the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrograph (FLASH; http://flash.ou.edu) real-time system. The hydrologic model is implemented at 1-km/5-min resolution to generate estimates of streamflow. Data from the CONUS-wide stream gauge network of the United States' Geological Survey (USGS) were used as a reference to evaluate the discrepancies with the hydrological model predictions. Streamflow errors were studied at the event scale with particular focus on the peak flow magnitude and timing. A total of 2,680 catchments over CONUS and 75,496 events from a 10-year period are used for the simulation diagnostic analysis. Associations between streamflow errors and geophysical factors were explored and modeled. It is found that hydro-climatic factors and radar coverage could explain significant underestimation of peak flow in regions of complex terrain. Furthermore, the statistical modeling of peak flow errors shows that other geophysical factors such as basin geomorphometry, pedology, and land cover/use could also provide explanatory information. Results from this research demonstrate the utility of uncertainty characterization in providing guidance to improve model adequacy, parameter estimates, and input quality control. Likewise, the characterization of uncertainty enables probabilistic flood forecasting that can be extended to ungauged locations.

A new PUB-working group on SLope InterComparison Experiments (SLICE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, K.; Retter, M.; Freer, J.; Troch, P.; McDonnell, J.

2006-05-01

The International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) has the scientific goal to shift hydrology from calibration reliant models to new and rich understanding- based models. To support this, six PUB science themes have been developed under the PUB Science Steering group. Theme 1 covers basin inter-comparison and classification. The SLope InterComparison Experiment (SLICE) is a newly-formed working group aligned with theme 1. Its 2- year target is to promote the improved understanding of regional hydrological characteristics via hillslope inter- comparison studies and top-down analysis of data from hillslope experiments from around the world. It will further deliver the major building blocks of a catchment classification system. A first workshop of SLICE took place 26-28 September 2005 at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. 40 participants from seven countries were in attendance. The program consisted of keynote presentations on the state-of-the-art of hillslope hydrology, outlining a hillslope classification system, and through small group discussion, a focus on the following questions: a.) How can we capture flow path heterogeneity at the hillslope scale with residence time distributions? b.) Can networks help characterize hillslope subsurface systems? c.) What patterns are useful to characterize in a hillslope comparison context? d.) How does bedrock permeability condition hillslope response? e.) Can we actually observe pressure waves in the field and/or how likely are they to exist at the hillslope continuum scale? The poster presents an overview of the workshop outcomes and directions of future work.

WRF model sensitivity to choice of parameterization: a study of the `York Flood 1999'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Holman, Ian; Frostick, Lynne

2015-10-01

Numerical weather modelling has gained considerable attention in the field of hydrology especially in un-gauged catchments and in conjunction with distributed models. As a consequence, the accuracy with which these models represent precipitation, sub-grid-scale processes and exceptional events has become of considerable concern to the hydrological community. This paper presents sensitivity analyses for the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with respect to the choice of physical parameterization schemes (both cumulus parameterisation (CPSs) and microphysics parameterization schemes (MPSs)) used to represent the `1999 York Flood' event, which occurred over North Yorkshire, UK, 1st-14th March 1999. The study assessed four CPSs (Kain-Fritsch (KF2), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD) and the old Kain-Fritsch (KF1)) and four MPSs (Kessler, Lin et al., WRF single-moment 3-class (WSM3) and WRF single-moment 5-class (WSM5)] with respect to their influence on modelled rainfall. The study suggests that the BMJ scheme may be a better cumulus parameterization choice for the study region, giving a consistently better performance than other three CPSs, though there are suggestions of underestimation. The WSM3 was identified as the best MPSs and a combined WSM3/BMJ model setup produced realistic estimates of precipitation quantities for this exceptional flood event. This study analysed spatial variability in WRF performance through categorical indices, including POD, FBI, FAR and CSI during York Flood 1999 under various model settings. Moreover, the WRF model was good at predicting high-intensity rare events over the Yorkshire region, suggesting it has potential for operational use.

Monitoring Lake and Reservoir Level: Satellite Observations, Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Adler, R. F.; Carton, J.

2013-12-01

Satellite measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for un-gauged basins and by filling data gaps in gauge records. However, different satellite radar altimeter-derived continental water level products may differ significantly owing to choice of satellites and data processing methods. To explore the impacts of these differences, a direct comparison between three different altimeter-based surface water level estimates (USDA/NASA GRLM, LEGOS and ESA-DMU) will be presented and products validated with lake level gauge time series for lakes and reservoirs of a variety of sizes and conditions. The availability of satellite-based rainfall (i.e., TRMM and GPCP) and satellite-based lake/reservoir levels offers exciting opportunities to estimate and monitor the hydrologic properties of the lake systems. Here, a simple water balance model is utilized to relate net freshwater flux on a catchment basin to lake/reservoir level. Focused on tropical lakes and reservoirs it allows a comparison of the flux to altimetric lake level estimates. The combined use of model, satellite-based rainfall, evaporation information and reanalysis products, can be used to output water-level hindcasts and seasonal future forecasts. Such a tool is fundamental for understanding present-day and future variations in lake/reservoir levels and enabling a better understand of climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales. New model-derived water level estimates of lakes and reservoirs, on regional to global scales, would assist communities with interests in climate studies focusing on extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and be important for water resources management.

Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

2017-09-01

The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

Variation of stream temperature among mesoscale habitats within stream reaches: southern Appalachians

Treesearch

S. Lynsey Long; C. Rhett. Jackson

2014-01-01

Stream mesoscale habitats have systematic topographic relationships to hyporheic flow patterns, which may create predictable temperature variation between mesoscale habitat types. We investigated whether systematic differences in temperature metrics occurred between mesoscale habitats within reaches of small streams tributary to the upper Little Tennessee River,...

Advances in snow cover distributed modelling via ensemble simulations and assimilation of satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revuelto, J.; Dumont, M.; Tuzet, F.; Vionnet, V.; Lafaysse, M.; Lecourt, G.; Vernay, M.; Morin, S.; Cosme, E.; Six, D.; Rabatel, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays snowpack models show a good capability in simulating the evolution of snow in mountain areas. However singular deviations of meteorological forcing and shortcomings in the modelling of snow physical processes, when accumulated on time along a snow season, could produce large deviations from real snowpack state. The evaluation of these deviations is usually assessed with on-site observations from automatic weather stations. Nevertheless the location of these stations could strongly influence the results of these evaluations since local topography may have a marked influence on snowpack evolution. Despite the evaluation of snowpack models with automatic weather stations usually reveal good results, there exist a lack of large scale evaluations of simulations results on heterogeneous alpine terrain subjected to local topographic effects.This work firstly presents a complete evaluation of the detailed snowpack model Crocus over an extended mountain area, the Arve upper catchment (western European Alps). This catchment has a wide elevation range with a large area above 2000m a.s.l. and/or glaciated. The evaluation compares results obtained with distributed and semi-distributed simulations (the latter nowadays used on the operational forecasting). Daily observations of the snow covered area from MODIS satellite sensor, seasonal glacier surface mass balance evolution measured in more than 65 locations and the galciers annual equilibrium line altitude from Landsat/Spot/Aster satellites, have been used for model evaluation. Additionally the latest advances in producing ensemble snowpack simulations for assimilating satellite reflectance data over extended areas will be presented. These advances comprises the generation of an ensemble of downscaled high-resolution meteorological forcing from meso-scale meteorological models and the application of a particle filter scheme for assimilating satellite observations. Despite the results are prefatory, they show a good potential improving snowpack forecasting capabilities.

Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.

2015-04-01

Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude, longitude, mean annual precipitation and elevation are good covariate candidates for hourly precipitation in our model. Summer indices succeed because hourly precipitation extremes often occur during the convective season. The spatial distribution of hourly and daily precipitation differs in Norway. Daily precipitation extremes are larger along the southwestern coast, where large-scale frontal systems dominate during fall season and the mountain ridge generates strong orographic enhancement. The largest hourly precipitation extremes are mostly produced by intense convective showers during summer, and are thus found along the entire southern coast, including the Oslo-region.

An integrated groundwater and surface water approach to quantifying the contribution of hydrological pathways to streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, R. J.; Deakin, J.; Misstear, B.; Gill, L.; Flynn, R. M.

2012-12-01

An appreciation of the quantity of streamflow derived from the main hydrological groundwater and surface water pathways transporting diffuse pollutants is critical when addressing a wide range of water resource management issues. The Pathways Project, funded by the Irish EPA, is developing a Catchment Management Tool (CMT) as an aid to water resource decision makers. The pollutants investigated by the CMT include phosphorus, nitrogen, sediments, pesticides and pathogens. An important first step in this process is to provide reliable estimates of the slower responding groundwater pathways in conjunction with the quicker overland and interflow pathways. Four watersheds are being investigated, with continuous rainfall, discharge, temperature and conductivity data being collected at gauging points within each of the watersheds. These datasets are being used to populate the semi-distributed, lumped flow model, NAM and also the distributed, finite difference model, MODFLOW. One of the main challenges is to achieve credible separations of the hydrograph into the main pathways in relatively small catchments (sometimes less than 5km2) with short response times. To assist the numerical modelling, physical separation techniques have been used to constrain the separations within probable limits. Physical techniques include: Master Recession Analysis; a modified Lyne and Hollick one-parameter digital separation; an approach developed in Ireland involving the application of recharge coefficients to hydrologically effective rainfall estimates; and finally using the NAM and MODFLOW models themselves as means of investigating separations. The contribution from each of the pathways, combined with an understanding of the attenuation of the contaminants along those pathways, will inform the CMT. This understanding will lay the foundation for linking the parameters of the NAM model to watershed descriptors such as slope, drainage density, watershed area, soil type, etc., in order to predict the response of a watershed to rainfall. This is an important deliverable of this research and will be fundamental for initial investigations in ungauged watersheds. This approach to quantifying hydrological pathways will therefore have wider applicability across Ireland and in hydrological settings elsewhere internationally. The research is being carried out for the Environmental Protection Agency by a consortium involving Queen's University Belfast, University College Dublin and Trinity College Dublin. Pathway separations in a karst watershed. Observed discharge (Black) with separated pathways: quick diffuse flow (Blue); slow diffuse flow (Green); interflow (Light Blue) and overland flow (Red).

Modelling surface hydrology with DR2-SAGA 1.0: development of a user-friendly interface for hillslope water balance assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Montero, Teresa; López-Vicente, Manuel; Navas, Ana

2013-04-01

Soil moisture variability and the depth of water stored in the arable layer of the soil are important topics in agricultural research and rangeland management. Additionally, runoff triggers soil detachment and sediment delivery, and thus is one of the most important factors in the soil erosion dynamic. Overland flow generation and accumulation are non-linear and scale-dependent processes and the development of prediction models helps researchers evaluate different scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we present the DR2-SAGA 1.0 module to the scientific community. The DR2 (Distributed Rainfall-Runoff) water balance model computes the depth of water stored within the soil profile (Waa) distinguishing five scenarios of the upslope contributing area, infiltration processes and climatic parameters, and assesses the soil moisture status (SMS) throughout the year for an average monthly rainfall event. The SAGA program is a free Geographical Information System (GIS) with support for vector and, specially, raster data. Its foundation is its Application Programming Interface (API), which provides data object models and basic definitions for the programming of scientific modules. Module libraries contain the scientific methods and are developed using C++ code. The new module was run in a medium size mountain Mediterranean catchment (246 ha; Spanish Central Pre-Pyrenees) at high spatial resolution (5 x 5 meters of cell size). The Estaña Lakes Catchment is affected by karstic processes which explain the presence of 15 endorheic sub-catchments and three fresh-water lakes. Additionally, this area is ungauged and offers the opportunity to test the performance of the new module in a non-conventional landscape. DR2-SAGA 1.0 demands 16 inputs and generates monthly and annual maps of initial and effective runoff depth, Waa and SMS. One user-friendly tab was created with SAGA 2.0.8 for each input and output file. The new module also includes a water balance routine to obtain accurate maps of effective cumulative runoff for any type of accumulation algorithm used. In order to make more readable the results and their legends, a predefined layout was created for each derived map. Further research seeks the development of an equation to add the Effective Hydrological Depth factor in order to improve the reliability of the model in shallow soils. A basic statistical analysis package will also appear in the next version of the module. The development of the DR2-SAGA 1.0 module in the open-source SAGA platform boosts the simulation capacity of the DR2 model in comparison with its application in other commercial GIS software. As a result, we present a scientific module that brings together the set of equations, mathematical calculations and GIS operations included in the DR2 model. DR2-SAGA 1.0 provides a powerful and efficient tool with an intuitive graphical user interface having a low computational cost. In general, DR2-SAGA 1.0 shows great potential for hydrological studies in small and medium size catchments and can be used by both advanced and non-expert users. The new module will be available in the web site of our research center in spring 2013.

Assessing the Reliability of Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency Equations for Gauged and Ungauged Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Montanari, A.; Brath, A.

2002-12-01

The study derives Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency (RDDF) equations for a wide region of northern-central Italy (37,200 km 2) by following an adaptation of the approach originally proposed by Alila [WRR, 36(7), 2000]. The proposed RDDF equations have a rather simple structure and allow an estimation of the design storm, defined as the rainfall depth expected for a given storm duration and recurrence interval, in any location of the study area for storm durations from 1 to 24 hours and for recurrence intervals up to 100 years. The reliability of the proposed RDDF equations represents the main concern of the study and it is assessed at two different levels. The first level considers the gauged sites and compares estimates of the design storm obtained with the RDDF equations with at-site estimates based upon the observed annual maximum series of rainfall depth and with design storm estimates resulting from a regional estimator recently developed for the study area through a Hierarchical Regional Approach (HRA) [Gabriele and Arnell, WRR, 27(6), 1991]. The second level performs a reliability assessment of the RDDF equations for ungauged sites by means of a jack-knife procedure. Using the HRA estimator as a reference term, the jack-knife procedure assesses the reliability of design storm estimates provided by the RDDF equations for a given location when dealing with the complete absence of pluviometric information. The results of the analysis show that the proposed RDDF equations represent practical and effective computational means for producing a first guess of the design storm at the available raingauges and reliable design storm estimates for ungauged locations. The first author gratefully acknowledges D.H. Burn for sponsoring the submission of the present abstract.

Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanborn, Stephen C.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

2006-06-01

Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins provides essential information for water resources planning and management and ecohydrological studies yet remains a fundamental challenge to the hydrological sciences. A methodology is presented for stratifying streamflow regimes of gauged locations, classifying the regimes of ungauged streams, and developing models for predicting a suite of ecologically pertinent streamflow metrics for these streams. Eighty-four streamflow metrics characterizing various flow regime attributes were computed along with physical and climatic drainage basin characteristics for 150 streams with little or no streamflow modification in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. The diverse hydroclimatology of the study area necessitates flow regime stratification and geographically independent clusters were identified and used to develop separate predictive models for each flow regime type. Multiple regression models for flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change metrics were quite accurate with many adjusted R2 values exceeding 0.80, while models describing streamflow variability did not perform as well. Separate stratification schemes for high, low, and average flows did not considerably improve models for metrics describing those particular aspects of the regime over a scheme based on the entire flow regime. Models for streams identified as 'snowmelt' type were improved if sites in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest were separated to better stratify the processes driving streamflow in these regions thus revealing limitations of geographically independent streamflow clusters. This study demonstrates that a broad suite of ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics can be accurately modeled across large heterogeneous regions using this framework. Applications of the resulting models include stratifying biomonitoring sites and quantifying linkages between specific aspects of flow regimes and aquatic community structure. In particular, the results bode well for modeling ecological processes related to high-flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change such as the recruitment of fish and riparian vegetation across large regions.

Chemistry on the mesoscale: Modeling and measurement issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne; Pleim, John; Walcek, Christopher; Ching, Jason; Binkowski, Frank; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Dickerson, Russell; Pickering, Kenneth

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) -- a coupled chemistry/mesoscale model; convection in RADM; unresolved issues for mesoscale modeling with chemistry -- nonprecipitating clouds; unresolved issues for mesoscale modeling with chemistry -- aerosols; tracer studies with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM); field observations of trace gas transport in convection; and photochemical consequences of convection.

Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wilson, M.; Freer, J.; McGregor, G.

2009-04-01

As the severity of floods increases, possibly due to climate and landuse change, there is urgent need for more effective and reliable warning systems. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. An ensemble of weather forecasts from one Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), when used on catchment hydrology, can provide improved early flood warning as some of the uncertainties can be quantified. EPS forecasts from a single weather centre only account for part of the uncertainties originating from initial conditions and stochastic physics. Other sources of uncertainties, including numerical implementations and/or data assimilation, can only be assessed if a grand ensemble of EPSs from different weather centres is used. When various models that produce EPS from different weather centres are aggregated, the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts can be better retained and accounted for. The availability of twelve global EPSs through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the design of an improved probabilistic flood forecasting framework. This work presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment. The upper reach of the River Severn catchment located in the Midlands Region of England is selected due to its abundant data for investigation and its relatively small size (4062 km2) (compared to the resolution of the NWPs). This choice was deliberate as we hypothesize that the uncertainty in the forcing of smaller catchments cannot be represented by a single EPS with a very limited number of ensemble members, but only through the variance given by a large number ensembles and ensemble system. A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts is set up to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database in early flood warning. Physically based and fully distributed LISFLOOD suite of models is selected to simulate discharge and flood inundation consecutively. The results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to produce forecasts of discharge and flood inundation comparable with the observed discharge and simulated inundation driven by the observed discharge. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large, implying a significant level of uncertainties. Precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial variability of precipitation on a comparatively small catchment. This perhaps indicates the need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregation techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. It is not necessarily true that early flood warning becomes more reliable when more ensemble forecasts are employed. It is difficult to identify the best forecast centre(s), but in general the chance of detecting floods is increased by using the TIGGE database. Only one flood event was studied because most of the TIGGE data became available after October 2007. It is necessary to test the TIGGE ensemble forecasts with other flood events in other catchments with different hydrological and climatic regimes before general conclusions can be made on its robustness and applicability.

Estimation of frequency based flood peak for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report presents: (1) calculation of flood frequency for the Ward Creek watershed using eight flood prediction models, (2) establishment of the rating curve (stage-discharge relation) for the Ward Creek watershed, (3) evaluation of these flood pr...

Design rainfall depth estimation through two regional frequency analysis methods in Hanjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yue-Ping; Yu, Chaofeng; Zhang, Xujie; Zhang, Qingqing; Xu, Xiao

2012-02-01

Hydrological predictions in ungauged basins are of significant importance for water resources management. In hydrological frequency analysis, regional methods are regarded as useful tools in estimating design rainfall/flood for areas with only little data available. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of two regional methods, namely the Hosking's approach and the cokriging approach, in hydrological frequency analysis. These two methods are employed to estimate 24-h design rainfall depths in Hanjiang River Basin, one of the largest tributaries of Yangtze River, China. Validation is made through comparing the results to those calculated from the provincial handbook approach which uses hundreds of rainfall gauge stations. Also for validation purpose, five hypothetically ungauged sites from the middle basin are chosen. The final results show that compared to the provincial handbook approach, the Hosking's approach often overestimated the 24-h design rainfall depths while the cokriging approach most of the time underestimated. Overall, the Hosking' approach produced more accurate results than the cokriging approach.

On evaluating the robustness of spatial-proximity-based regionalization methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebecherel, Laure; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles

2016-08-01

In absence of streamflow data to calibrate a hydrological model, its parameters are to be inferred by a regionalization method. In this technical note, we discuss a specific class of regionalization methods, those based on spatial proximity, which transfers hydrological information (typically calibrated parameter sets) from neighbor gauged stations to the target ungauged station. The efficiency of any spatial-proximity-based regionalization method will depend on the density of the available streamgauging network, and the purpose of this note is to discuss how to assess the robustness of the regionalization method (i.e., its resilience to an increasingly sparse hydrometric network). We compare two options: (i) the random hydrometrical reduction (HRand) method, which consists in sub-sampling the existing gauging network around the target ungauged station, and (ii) the hydrometrical desert method (HDes), which consists in ignoring the closest gauged stations. Our tests suggest that the HDes method should be preferred, because it provides a more realistic view on regionalization performance.

Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

2013-04-01

The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the following questions. How is the interannual variability of the observed precipitation gradient related to atmospheric circulation east (Amazon basin) and west (south-east Pacific) of the study region? If those relations are quantifiable, are there any forecast potentials for the characteristics of the precipitation gradient during the raining season? The results of the study provide valuable information needed to understand the generation of rainfall in the frame of a case study for the largest metropolitan area that is located at the arid Pacific coast of Peru. This information may also be useful for local managers in order to optimise water resource management and land use strategies.

Kinematics and thermodynamics of a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective system and its mesoscale vortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knievel, Jason Clark

The author examines a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) it generated. The MCS, which comprised a leading convective line and trailing stratiform region, traversed Kansas and Oklahoma on 1 August 1996, passing through the NOAA Wind Profiler Network, as well as four sites from which soundings were being taken every three hours during a field project. The unusually rich data set permitted study of the MCS and MCV over nine hours on scales between those of operational rawinsondes and Doppler radars. The author used a spatial bandpass filter to divide observed wind into synoptic and mesoscale components. The environment-relative, mesoscale wind contained an up- and downdraft and divergent outflows in the lower and upper troposphere. The mesoscale wind was asymmetric about the MCS, consistent with studies of gravity waves generated by heating typical of that in many MCSs. According to a scale-discriminating vorticity budget, both the synoptic and mesoscale winds contributed to the prominent resolved sources of vorticity in the MCV: tilting and convergence. Unresolved sources were also large. The author speculates that an abrupt change in the main source of vorticity in an MCV may appear as an abrupt change in its altitude of maximum vorticity. Distributions of temperature and humidity in the MCS were consistent with its mesoscale circulations. In the terminus of the mesoscale downdraft, advection of drier, potentially warmer air exceeded humidifying and cooling from rain, so profiles of temperature and dew point exhibit onion and double-onion patterns. The mesoscale updraft was approximately saturated with a moist adiabatic lapse rate. Mesoscale drafts and convective drafts vertically mixed the troposphere, partially homogenizing equivalent potential temperature. The MCV contained a column of high potential vorticity in the middle troposphere, with a cold core below the freezing level and a warm core above---a pattern characteristic of profiles of heating by stratiform regions. The cold core was 2 km too shallow to be in pure gradient balance with wind in the MCV. On-going forcing during the observed lifetime of the MCV may have prevented it from achieving balance, even if that was its tendency.

Climatological aspects of mesoscale cyclogenesis over the Ross Sea and Ross Ice shelf regions of Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrasco, J.F.; Bromwich, D.H.

1994-11-01

A one-year (1988) statistical study of mesoscale cyclogenesis near Terra Nova Bay and Byrd Glacier, Antarctica, was conducted using high-resolution digital satellite imagery and automatic weather station data. Results indicate that on average two (one) mesoscale cyclones form near Terra Nova Bay (Byrd Glacier) each week, confirming these two locations as mesoscale cyclogeneis areas. The maximum (minimum) weekly frequency of mesoscale cyclones occurred during the summer (winter). The satellite survey of mesoscale vortices was extended over the Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf. Results suggest southern Marie Byrd Land as another area of mesoscale cyclone formation. Also, frequent mesoscale cyclonicmore » activity was noted over the Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf, where, on average, six and three mesoscale vortices were observed each week, respectively, with maximum (minimum) frequency during summer (winter) in both regions. The majority (70-80%) of the vortices were of comma-cloud type and were shallow. Only around 10% of the vortices near Terra Nova Bay and Byrd Glacier were classified as deep vortices, while over the Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf around 20% were found to be deep. The average large-scale pattern associated with cyclogenesis days near Terra Nova Bay suggests a slight decrease in the sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height to the northwest of this area with respect to the annual average. This may be an indication of the average position of synoptic-scale cyclones entering the Ross Sea region. Comparison with a similar study but for 1984-85 shows that the overall mesoscale cyclogenesis activity was similar during the three years, but 1985 was found to be the year with greater occurrence of {open_quotes}significant{close_quotes} mesoscales cyclones. The large-scale pattern indicates that this greater activity is related to a deeper circumpolar trough and 500-hPa polar vortex for 1985 in comparison to 1984 and 1988. 64 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Advances in variable selection methods II: Effect of variable selection method on classification of hydrologically similar watersheds in three Mid-Atlantic ecoregions

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological flow predictions in ungauged and sparsely gauged watersheds use regionalization or classification of hydrologically similar watersheds to develop empirical relationships between hydrologic, climatic, and watershed variables. The watershed classifications may be based...

Impact of the Mesoscale Dynamics on Ocean Deep Convection: The 2012-2013 Case Study in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldman, Robin; Herrmann, Marine; Somot, Samuel; Arsouze, Thomas; Benshila, Rachid; Bosse, Anthony; Chanut, Jerome; Giordani, Herve; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

2017-11-01

Winter 2012-2013 was a particularly intense and well-observed Dense Water Formation (DWF) event in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we investigate the impact of the mesoscale dynamics on DWF. We perform two perturbed initial state simulation ensembles from summer 2012 to 2013, respectively, mesoscale-permitting and mesoscale-resolving, with the AGRIF refinement tool in the Mediterranean configuration NEMOMED12. The mean impact of the mesoscale on DWF occurs mainly through the high-resolution physics and not the high-resolution bathymetry. This impact is shown to be modest: the mesoscale does not modify the chronology of the deep convective winter nor the volume of dense waters formed. It however impacts the location of the mixed patch by reducing its extent to the west of the North Balearic Front and by increasing it along the Northern Current, in better agreement with observations. The maximum mixed patch volume is significantly reduced from 5.7 ± 0.2 to 4.2 ± 0.6 × 1013 m3. Finally, the spring restratification volume is more realistic and enhanced from 1.4 ± 0.2 to 1.8 ± 0.2 × 1013 m3 by the mesoscale. We also address the mesoscale impact on the ocean intrinsic variability by performing perturbed initial state ensemble simulations. The mesoscale enhances the intrinsic variability of the deep convection geography, with most of the mixed patch area impacted by intrinsic variability. The DWF volume has a low intrinsic variability but it is increased by 2-3 times with the mesoscale. We relate it to a dramatic increase of the Gulf of Lions eddy kinetic energy from 5.0 ± 0.6 to 17.3 ± 1.5 cm2/s2, in remarkable agreement with observations.

From mesoscale eddies to small-scale turbulence in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveira Garabato, A.; Brearley, J. A.; Sheen, K. L.; Waterman, S. N.

2012-12-01

A foremost question in physical oceanography is that of how the oceanic mesoscale dissipates. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), in the Southern Ocean, is forced strongly by the wind and hosts a vigorous mesoscale eddy field. It has been recently suggested that substantial dampening of mesoscale flows in the region may occur through interactions with topography, on the basis of a number of indirect approaches. Here, we present the first direct evidence of a transfer of energy between mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence in the ACC, via the radiation, instability and breaking of internal waves generated as mesoscale flows impinge on rough topography. The evidence is provided by analysis of two data sets gathered by the DIMES (Diapycnal and Isopycnal Experiment in the Southern Ocean) experiment: (1) the observations of a mooring cluster, specifically designed to measure dynamical exchanges between the mesoscale eddy and internal wave fields in Drake Passage over a 2-year deployment; and (2) an extensive fine- and microstructure survey of the region. The physical mechanisms implicated in the cascade of energy across scales will be discussed.

Comparisons of Historical versus Synthetic Weather Inputs to Watershed Models and their Effect on Pollutant Loads

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Synthetic weather generators are important for continuous-simulation of agricultural watersheds for risk analyses of downstream water quality. Many watersheds are sparsely or totally ungauged and daily weather must either be transposed or augmented. Since water quality models must recognize runoff...

Two approaches for estimating discharge on ungauged basins in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Detailed information on the hydrologic behavior of streams is available for only a small proportion of all streams. Even in cases where discharge has been monitored, these measurements may not be available for a sufficiently long period to characterize the full behavior of a str...

Re-design of a physically-based catchment scale agrochemical model for the simulation of parameter spaces and flexible transformation schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegen, Ronald; Gassmann, Matthias

2017-04-01

The use of a broad variation of agrochemicals is essential for the modern industrialized agriculture. During the last decades, the awareness of the side effects of their use has grown and with it the requirement to reproduce, understand and predict the behaviour of these agrochemicals in the environment, in order to optimize their use and minimize the side effects. The modern modelling has made great progress in understanding and predicting these chemicals with digital methods. While the behaviour of the applied chemicals is often investigated and modelled, most studies only simulate parent chemicals, considering total annihilation of the substance. However, due to a diversity of chemical, physical and biological processes, the substances are rather transformed into new chemicals, which themselves are transformed until, at the end of the chain, the substance is completely mineralized. During this process, the fate of each transformation product is determined by its own environmental characteristics and the pathway and results of transformation can differ largely by substance and environmental influences, that can occur in different compartments of the same site. Simulating transformation products introduces additional model uncertainties. Thus, the calibration effort increases compared to simulations of the transport and degradation of the primary substance alone. The simulation of the necessary physical processes needs a lot of calculation time. Due to that, few physically-based models offer the possibility to simulate transformation products at all, mostly at the field scale. The few models available for the catchment scale are not optimized for this duty, i.e. they are only able to simulate a single parent compound and up to two transformation products. Thus, for simulations of large physico-chemical parameter spaces, the enormous calculation time of the underlying hydrological model diminishes the overall performance. In this study, the structure of the model ZIN-AGRITRA is re-designed for the transport and transformation of an unlimited amount of agrochemicals in the soil-water-plant system at catchment scale. The focus is, besides a good hydrological standard, on a flexible variation of transformation processes and the optimization for the use of large numbers of different substances. Due to the new design, a reduction of the calculation time per tested substance is acquired, allowing faster testing of parameter spaces. Additionally, the new concept allows for the consideration of different transformation processes and products in different environmental compartments. A first test of calculation time improvements and flexible transformation pathways was performed in a Mediterranean meso-scale catchment, using the insecticide Chlorpyrifos and two of its transformation products, which emerge from different transformation processes, as test substances.

Mesoscale Modeling, Forecasting and Remote Sensing Research.

DTIC Science & Technology

remote sensing , cyclonic scale diagnostic studies and mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting are summarized. Mechanisms involved in the release of potential instability are discussed and simulated quantitatively, giving particular attention to the convective formulation. The basic mesoscale model is documented including the equations, boundary condition, finite differences and initialization through an idealized frontal zone. Results of tests including a three dimensional test with real data, tests of convective/mesoscale interaction and tests with a detailed

Initialization of a mesoscale model for April 10, 1979, using alternative data sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.

1984-01-01

A 35 km grid limited area mesoscale model was initialized with high density SESAME radiosonde data and high density TIROS-N satellite temperature profiles for April 10, 1979. These data sources were used individually and with low level wind fields constructed from surface wind observations. The primary objective was to examine the use of satellite temperature data for initializing a mesoscale model by comparing the forecast results with similar experiments employing radiosonde data. The impact of observed low level winds on the model forecasts was also investigated with experiments varying the method of insertion. All forecasts were compared with each other and with mesoscale observations for precipitation, mass and wind structure. Several forecasts produced convective precipitation systems with characteristics satisfying criteria for a mesoscale convective complex. High density satellite temperature data and balanced winds can be used in a mesoscale model to produce forecasts which verify favorably with observations.

Onset of meso-scale turbulence in active nematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doostmohammadi, Amin; Shendruk, Tyler N.; Thijssen, Kristian; Yeomans, Julia M.

2017-05-01

Meso-scale turbulence is an innate phenomenon, distinct from inertial turbulence, that spontaneously occurs at low Reynolds number in fluidized biological systems. This spatiotemporal disordered flow radically changes nutrient and molecular transport in living fluids and can strongly affect the collective behaviour in prominent biological processes, including biofilm formation, morphogenesis and cancer invasion. Despite its crucial role in such physiological processes, understanding meso-scale turbulence and any relation to classical inertial turbulence remains obscure. Here we show how the motion of active matter along a micro-channel transitions to meso-scale turbulence through the evolution of locally disordered patches (active puffs) from an ordered vortex-lattice flow state. We demonstrate that the stationary critical exponents of this transition to meso-scale turbulence in a channel coincide with the directed percolation universality class. This finding bridges our understanding of the onset of low-Reynolds-number meso-scale turbulence and traditional scale-invariant turbulence in confinement.

Impact of the initial specification of moisture and vertical motion on precipitation forecasts with a mesoscale model Implications for a satellite mesoscale data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Houghton, David D.; Diak, George R.

1986-01-01

Using a numerical mesoscale model, four simulations were performed to determine the effects of suppressing the initial mesoscale information in the moisture and wind fields on the precipitation forecasts. The simulations included a control forecast 12-h simulation that began at 1200 GMT March 1982 and three experiment simulations with modifications to the moisture and vertical motion fields incorporated at 1800 GMT. The forecasts from 1800 GMT were compared to the second half of the control forecast. It was found that, compared to the control forecast, suppression of the moisture and/or wind initial field(s) produces a drier forecast. However, the characteristics of the precipitation forecasts of the experiments were not different enough to conclude that either mesoscale moisture or mesoscale vertical velocity at the initial time are more important for producing a forecast closer to that of the control.

Tools for Virtual Collaboration Designed for High Resolution Hydrologic Research with Continental-Scale Data Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, Christopher; Leonard, Lorne; Shi, Yuning; Bhatt, Gopal; Hanson, Paul; Gil, Yolanda; Yu, Xuan

2015-04-01

Using a series of recent examples and papers we explore some progress and potential for virtual (cyber-) collaboration inspired by access to high resolution, harmonized public-sector data at continental scales [1]. The first example describes 7 meso-scale catchments in Pennsylvania, USA where the watershed is forced by climate reanalysis and IPCC future climate scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). We show how existing public-sector data and community models are currently able to resolve fine-scale eco-hydrologic processes regarding wetland response to climate change [2]. The results reveal that regional climate change is only part of the story, with large variations in flood and drought response associated with differences in terrain, physiography, landuse and/or hydrogeology. The importance of community-driven virtual testbeds are demonstrated in the context of Critical Zone Observatories, where earth scientists from around the world are organizing hydro-geophysical data and model results to explore new processes that couple hydrologic models with land-atmosphere interaction, biogeochemical weathering, carbon-nitrogen cycle, landscape evolution and ecosystem services [3][4]. Critical Zone cyber-research demonstrates how data-driven model development requires a flexible computational structure where process modules are relatively easy to incorporate and where new data structures can be implemented [5]. From the perspective of "Big-Data" the paper points out that extrapolating results from virtual observatories to catchments at continental scales, will require centralized or cloud-based cyberinfrastructure as a necessary condition for effectively sharing petabytes of data and model results [6]. Finally we outline how innovative cyber-science is supporting earth-science learning, sharing and exploration through the use of on-line tools where hydrologists and limnologists are sharing data and models for simulating the coupled impacts of catchment hydrology on lake eco-hydrology (NSF-INSPIRE, IIS1344272). The research attempts to use a virtual environment (www.organicdatascience.org) to break down disciplinary barriers and support emergent communities of science. [1] Source: Leonard and Duffy, 2013, Environmental Modelling & Software; [2] Source: Yu et al, 2014, Computers in Geoscience; [3] Source: Duffy et al, 2014, Procedia Earth and Planetary Science; [4] Source: Shi et al, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014; [5] Source: Bhatt et al, 2014, Environmental Modelling & Software ; [6] Leonard and Duffy, 2014, Environmental Modelling and Software.

Modeling mesoscale eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canuto, V. M.; Dubovikov, M. S.

Mesoscale eddies are not resolved in coarse resolution ocean models and must be modeled. They affect both mean momentum and scalars. At present, no generally accepted model exists for the former; in the latter case, mesoscales are modeled with a bolus velocity u∗ to represent a sink of mean potential energy. However, comparison of u∗(model) vs. u∗ (eddy resolving code, [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]) has shown that u∗(model) is incomplete and that additional terms, "unrelated to thickness source or sinks", are required. Thus far, no form of the additional terms has been suggested. To describe mesoscale eddies, we employ the Navier-Stokes and scalar equations and a turbulence model to treat the non-linear interactions. We then show that the problem reduces to an eigenvalue problem for the mesoscale Bernoulli potential. The solution, which we derive in analytic form, is used to construct the momentum and thickness fluxes. In the latter case, the bolus velocity u∗ is found to contain two types of terms: the first type entails the gradient of the mean potential vorticity and represents a positive contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy; the second type of terms, which is new, entails the velocity of the mean flow and represents a negative contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy, or equivalently, a backscatter process whereby a fraction of the mesoscale potential energy is returned to the original reservoir of mean potential energy. This type of terms satisfies the physical description of the additional terms given by [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]. The mesoscale flux that enters the momentum equations is also contributed by two types of terms of the same physical nature as those entering the thickness flux. The potential vorticity flux is also shown to contain two types of terms: the first is of the gradient-type while the other terms entail the velocity of the mean flow. An expression is derived for the mesoscale diffusivity κM and for the mesoscale kinetic energy K in terms of the large-scale fields. The predicted κM( z) agrees with that of heuristic models. The complete mesoscale model in isopycnal coordinates is presented in Appendix D and can be used in coarse resolution ocean global circulation models.

Interpreting the suspended sediment dynamics in a mesoscale river basin of Central Mexico using a nested watershed approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvert, C.; Némery, J.; Gratiot, N.; Prat, C.; Collet, L.; Esteves, M.

2009-12-01

The Cointzio river basin is located within the Mexican Transvolcanic Belt, in the Michoacán state. Land-use changes undergone over last decades lead to significant erosion processes, though affecting limited areas of the basin. Apart from generating a minor depletion of arable land by incising small headwater areas, this important sediment delivery contributed to siltation in the reservoir of Cointzio, situated right downstream of the basin. During 2009 rainy season, a detailed monitoring of water and sediment fluxes was undertaken in three headwater catchments located within the Cointzio basin (Huertitas, Potrerillos and La Cortina, respectively 2.5, 9.3 and 12.0 km2), as well as at the outlet of the main river basin (station of Santiago Undameo, 627 km2). Preliminary tests realized in 2008 underlined the necessity of carrying out a high-frequency monitoring strategy to assess the sediment dynamics in the basins of this region. In each site, water discharge time-series were obtained from continuous water-level measurements (5-min time-step), and stage-discharge rating curves. At the river basin outlet, Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) was estimated every 10 minutes through turbidity measurements calibrated with data from automatic sampling. In the three sub-catchments, SSC time-series were calculated using stage-triggered automatic water samplers. The three upland areas monitored in our study present distinct landforms, morphology and soil types. La Cortina is underlain by andisols, rich in organic matter and with an excellent microstructure under wet conditions. Huertitas and Potrerillos both present a severely gullied landscape, bare and highly susceptible to water erosion in degraded areas. As a result, suspended sediment yields in 2009 were expectedly much higher in these two sub-catchments (≈320 t.km-2 in Huertitas and ≈270 t.km-2 in Potrerillos) than in La Cortina (≈40 t.km-2). The total suspended sediment export was approximately of 30 t.km-2 at the outlet, with a dominance of cohesive sediments (mainly silt and clay). Sediment delivery dynamics was found to be seasonally dependent and principally driven by the river network transport capacity. With the exception of events associated with a very high discharge peak, sub-catchments delivered very little sediment to the basin’s outlet during first events of the rainy season (corresponding to May-June period). Later on (from July until the end of the season), even low headwater sediment peaks were coupled with significant sediment fluxes at the outlet. An analysis of SSC-Q hysteresis patterns was also conducted for major flood events at each site. Anti-clockwise SSC-Q hysteresis loops were recorded most frequently at the three upland sub-catchments, while at the outlet a double-peaked SSC signal was repeatedly detected, outlining the variety in sediment contributions. The findings of this nested watershed approach suggest that during the first part of the rainy season, fine sediment loads exported from active hillslopes deposit as fluid mud layers in the lowland river channels. Once the in-channel storage capacity is loaded, the river transport potential guarantees a direct transit between headwater areas and delivery zones.

mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Land Surface and Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, M.; Thober, S.; Mai, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Kumar, R.

2015-12-01

Routing streamflow through a river network is a basic step within any distributed hydrologic model. It integrates the generated runoff and allows comparison with observed discharge at the outlet of a catchment. The Muskingum routing is a textbook river routing scheme that has been implemented in Earth System Models (e.g., WRF-HYDRO), stand-alone routing schemes (e.g., RAPID), and hydrologic models (e.g., the mesoscale Hydrologic Model). Most implementations suffer from a high computational demand because the spatial routing resolution is fixed to that of the elevation model irrespective of the hydrologic modeling resolution. This is because the model parameters are scale-dependent and cannot be used at other resolutions without re-estimation. Here, we present the multiscale Routing Model (mRM) that allows for a flexible choice of the routing resolution. mRM exploits the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) included in the open-source mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) that relates model parameters to physiographic properties and allows to estimate scale-independent model parameters. mRM is currently coupled to mHM and is presented here as stand-alone Free and Open Source Software (FOSS). The mRM source code is highly modular and provides a subroutine for internal re-use in any land surface scheme. mRM is coupled in this work to the state-of-the-art land surface model Noah-MP. Simulation results using mRM are compared with those available in WRF-HYDRO for the Red River during the period 1990-2000. mRM allows to increase the routing resolution from 100m to more than 10km without deteriorating the model performance. Therefore, it speeds up model calculation by reducing the contribution of routing to total runtime from over 80% to less than 5% in the case of WRF-HYDRO. mRM thus makes discharge data available to land surface modeling with only little extra calculations.

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cerovecki, Ivana; McClean, Julie; Koracin, Darko

2014-11-14

The overall objective of this study was to improve the representation of regional ocean circulation in the North Pacific by using high resolution atmospheric forcing that accurately represents mesoscale processes in ocean-atmosphere regional (North Pacific) model configuration. The goal was to assess the importance of accurate representation of mesoscale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean on large scale circulation. This is an important question, as mesoscale processes in the atmosphere which are resolved by the high resolution mesoscale atmospheric models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are absent in commonly used atmospheric forcing such as CORE forcing, employedmore » in e.g. the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).« less

Radar QPE for hydrological design: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat

2015-04-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used in flood risk management since they provide an easy link between the characteristics of a rainfall event and the probability of its occurrence. They are estimated analyzing the extreme values of rainfall records, usually basing on raingauge data. This point-based approach raises two issues: first, hydrological design applications generally need IDF information for the entire catchment rather than a point, second, the representativeness of point measurements decreases with the distance from measure location, especially in regions characterized by steep climatological gradients. Weather radar, providing high resolution distributed rainfall estimates over wide areas, has the potential to overcome these issues. Two objections usually restrain this approach: (i) the short length of data records and (ii) the reliability of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the extremes. This work explores the potential use of weather radar estimates for the identification of IDF curves by means of a long length radar archive and a combined physical- and quantitative- adjustment of radar estimates. Shacham weather radar, located in the eastern Mediterranean area (Tel Aviv, Israel), archives data since 1990 providing rainfall estimates for 23 years over a region characterized by strong climatological gradients. Radar QPE is obtained correcting the effects of pointing errors, ground echoes, beam blockage, attenuation and vertical variations of reflectivity. Quantitative accuracy is then ensured with a range-dependent bias adjustment technique and reliability of radar QPE is assessed by comparison with gauge measurements. IDF curves are derived from the radar data using the annual extremes method and compared with gauge-based curves. Results from 14 study cases will be presented focusing on the effects of record length and QPE accuracy, exploring the potential application of radar IDF curves for ungauged locations and providing insights on the use of radar QPE for hydrological design studies.

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Parameterization of Mixed Layer and Deep-Ocean Mesoscales Including Nonlinearity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canuto, V. M.; Cheng, Y.; Dubovikov, M. S.; Howard, A. M.; Leboissetier, A.

2018-01-01

In 2011, Chelton et al. carried out a comprehensive census of mesoscales using altimetry data and reached the following conclusions: "essentially all of the observed mesoscale features are nonlinear" and "mesoscales do not move with the mean velocity but with their own drift velocity," which is "the most germane of all the nonlinear metrics."� Accounting for these results in a mesoscale parameterization presents conceptual and practical challenges since linear analysis is no longer usable and one needs a model of nonlinearity. A mesoscale parameterization is presented that has the following features: 1) it is based on the solutions of the nonlinear mesoscale dynamical equations, 2) it describes arbitrary tracers, 3) it includes adiabatic (A) and diabatic (D) regimes, 4) the eddy-induced velocity is the sum of a Gent and McWilliams (GM) term plus a new term representing the difference between drift and mean velocities, 5) the new term lowers the transfer of mean potential energy to mesoscales, 6) the isopycnal slopes are not as flat as in the GM case, 7) deep-ocean stratification is enhanced compared to previous parameterizations where being more weakly stratified allowed a large heat uptake that is not observed, 8) the strength of the Deacon cell is reduced. The numerical results are from a stand-alone ocean code with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment I (CORE-I) normal-year forcing.

Application of the Flood-IMPAT procedure in the Valle d'Aosta Region, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minucci, Guido; Mendoza, Marina Tamara; Molinari, Daniela; Atun, Funda; Menoni, Scira; Ballio, Francesco

2016-04-01

Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) established by European "Floods" Directive (Directive 2007/60/EU) to Member States in order to address all aspects of flood risk management, taking into account costs and benefits of proposed mitigation tools must be reviewed by the same law every six years. This is aimed at continuously increasing the effectiveness of risk management, on the bases of the most advanced knowledge of flood risk and most (economically) feasible solutions, also taking into consideration achievements of the previous management cycle. Within this context, the Flood-IMPAT (i.e. Integrated Meso-scale Procedure to Assess Territorial flood risk) procedure has been developed aiming at overcoming limits of risk maps produced by the Po River Basin Authority and adopted for the first version of the Po River FRMP. The procedure allows the estimation of flood risk at the meso-scale and it is characterized by three main peculiarities. First is its feasibility for the entire Italian territory. Second is the possibility to express risk in monetary terms (i.e. expected damage), at least for those categories of damage for which suitable models are available. Finally, independent modules compose the procedure: each module allows the estimation of a certain type of damage (i.e. direct, indirect, intangibles) on a certain sector (e.g. residential, industrial, agriculture, environment, etc.) separately, guaranteeing flexibility in the implementation. This paper shows the application of the Flood-IMPAT procedure and the recent advancements in the procedure, aiming at increasing its reliability and usability. Through a further implementation of the procedure in the Dora Baltea River Basin (North of Italy), it was possible to test the sensitivity of risk estimates supplied by Flood-IMPAT with respect to different damage models and different approaches for the estimation of assets at risk. Risk estimates were also compared with observed damage data in the investigated areas to identify the most suitable damage model/exposure assessment approach to be implemented in the procedure. In the end, the procedure was adapted to be applied at the micro-scale, in such a way to supply risk estimates, which are coherent with those at the meso-scale. This way the procedure can be first implemented in the whole catchment to identify hotspots; the micro-scale approach can be implemented in a second run to investigate in depth (i) the most risk prone areas and (ii) the possible risk mitigation strategies.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. It is of central importance to assess upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Here a simple multi-scale model is used to capture this multi-scale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The two-dimensional version of the multi-scale model drives the synoptic-scale circulation, successfully reproduces key features of flow fields with a front-to-rear tilt and compares well with results from a cloud resolving model. In the scenario with an elevated upright mean heating, the tilted vertical structure of synoptic-scale circulation is still induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In a faster propagation scenario, the upscale impact becomes less important, while the synoptic-scale circulation response to mean heating dominates. In the unrealistic scenario with upward/westward tilted mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the leading edge, which will suppress shallow convection in a moist environment. In its three-dimensional version, results show that upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles (110o 250o) induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles (120o 240o). In the case with fast propagating mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the lower troposphere, suppressing convection in a moist environment. This simple model also reproduces convective momentum transport and CCKWs in agreement with results from a recent cloud resolving simulation.

Effects of Mesoscale Eddies in the Active Mixed Layer: Test of the Parametrisation in Eddy Resolving Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luneva, M. V.; Clayson, C. A.; Dubovikov, Mikhail

2015-01-01

In eddy resolving simulations, we test a mixed layer mesoscale parametrisation, developed recently by Canuto and Dubovikov [Ocean Model., 2011, 39, 200-207]. With no adjustable parameters, the parametrisation yields the horizontal and vertical mesoscale fluxes in terms of coarse-resolution fields and eddy kinetic energy (EKE). We compare terms of the parametrisation diagnosed from coarse-grained fields with the eddy mesoscale fluxes diagnosed directly from the high resolution model. An expression for the EKE in terms of mean fields has also been found to get a closed parametrisation in terms of the mean fields only. In 40 numerical experiments we simulated two types of flows: idealised flows driven by baroclinic instabilities only, and more realistic flows, driven by wind and surface fluxes as well as by inflow-outflow. The diagnosed quasi-instantaneous horizontal and vertical mesoscale buoyancy fluxes (averaged over 1-2 degrees and 10 days) demonstrate a strong scatter typical for turbulent flows, however, the fluxes are positively correlated with the parametrisation with higher (0.5-0.74) correlations at the experiments with larger baroclinic radius Rossby. After being averaged over 3-4 months, diffusivities diagnosed from the eddy resolving simulations are consistent with the parametrisation for a broad range of parameters. Diagnosed vertical mesoscale fluxes restratify mixed layer and are in a good agreement with the parametrisation unless vertical turbulent mixing in the upper layer becomes strong enough in comparison with mesoscale advection. In the latter case, numerical simulations demonstrate that the deviation of the fluxes from the parametrisation is controlled by dimensionless parameter estimating the ratio of vertical turbulent mixing term to mesoscale advection. An analysis using a modified omega-equation reveals that the effects of the vertical mixing of vorticity is responsible for the two-three fold amplification of vertical mesoscale flux. Possible physical mechanisms, responsible for the amplification of vertical mesoscale flux are discussed.

Unifying Inference of Meso-Scale Structures in Networks.

PubMed

Tunç, Birkan; Verma, Ragini

2015-01-01

Networks are among the most prevalent formal representations in scientific studies, employed to depict interactions between objects such as molecules, neuronal clusters, or social groups. Studies performed at meso-scale that involve grouping of objects based on their distinctive interaction patterns form one of the main lines of investigation in network science. In a social network, for instance, meso-scale structures can correspond to isolated social groupings or groups of individuals that serve as a communication core. Currently, the research on different meso-scale structures such as community and core-periphery structures has been conducted via independent approaches, which precludes the possibility of an algorithmic design that can handle multiple meso-scale structures and deciding which structure explains the observed data better. In this study, we propose a unified formulation for the algorithmic detection and analysis of different meso-scale structures. This facilitates the investigation of hybrid structures that capture the interplay between multiple meso-scale structures and statistical comparison of competing structures, all of which have been hitherto unavailable. We demonstrate the applicability of the methodology in analyzing the human brain network, by determining the dominant organizational structure (communities) of the brain, as well as its auxiliary characteristics (core-periphery).

Influence of Kuroshio Oceanic Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, R.; Hsieh, J. S.; Wu, D.; Lin, X.; Wu, L.; Jing, Z.

2016-02-01

High-resolution satellite observations reveal energetic meso-scale ocean eddy activity and positive correlation between meso-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind along oceanic frontal zones, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, suggesting a potential role of meso-scale oceanic eddies in forcing the atmosphere. Using a 27 km horizontal resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forced with observed daily SST at 0.09° spatial resolution during boreal winter season, two ensembles of 10 WRF simulations, in one of which meso-scale SST variability induced by ocean eddies was suppressed, were conducted in the North Pacific to study the local and remote influence of meso-scale oceanic eddies in the Kuroshio Extention Region (KER) on the atmosphere. Suppression of meso-scale oceanic eddies results in a deep tropospheric response along and downstream of the KER, including a significant decrease (increase) in winter season mean rainfall along the KER (west coast of US), a reduction of storm genesis in the KER, and a southward shift of the jet stream and North Pacific storm track in the eastern North Pacific. The simulated local and remote rainfall response to meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER is also supported by observational analysis. A mechanism invoking moist baroclinic instability is proposed as a plausible explanation for the linkage between meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER and large-scale atmospheric response in the North Pacific. It is argued that meso-scale oceanic eddies can have a rectified effect on planetary boundary layer moisture, the stability of the lower atmosphere and latent heat release, which in turn affect cyclogenesis. The accumulated effect of the altered storm development downstream further contributes to the equivalent barotropic mean flow change in the eastern North Pacific basin.

A daily global mesoscale ocean eddy dataset from satellite altimetry.

PubMed

Faghmous, James H; Frenger, Ivy; Yao, Yuanshun; Warmka, Robert; Lindell, Aron; Kumar, Vipin

2015-01-01

Mesoscale ocean eddies are ubiquitous coherent rotating structures of water with radial scales on the order of 100 kilometers. Eddies play a key role in the transport and mixing of momentum and tracers across the World Ocean. We present a global daily mesoscale ocean eddy dataset that contains ~45 million mesoscale features and 3.3 million eddy trajectories that persist at least two days as identified in the AVISO dataset over a period of 1993-2014. This dataset, along with the open-source eddy identification software, extract eddies with any parameters (minimum size, lifetime, etc.), to study global eddy properties and dynamics, and to empirically estimate the impact eddies have on mass or heat transport. Furthermore, our open-source software may be used to identify mesoscale features in model simulations and compare them to observed features. Finally, this dataset can be used to study the interaction between mesoscale ocean eddies and other components of the Earth System.

Mesoscale atmosphere ocean coupling enhances the transfer of wind energy into the ocean

PubMed Central

Byrne, D.; Münnich, M.; Frenger, I.; Gruber, N.

2016-01-01

Although it is well established that the large-scale wind drives much of the world's ocean circulation, the contribution of the wind energy input at mesoscales (10–200 km) remains poorly known. Here we use regional simulations with a coupled high-resolution atmosphere–ocean model of the South Atlantic, to show that mesoscale ocean features and, in particular, eddies can be energized by their thermodynamic interactions with the atmosphere. Owing to their sea-surface temperature anomalies affecting the wind field above them, the oceanic eddies in the presence of a large-scale wind gradient provide a mesoscale conduit for the transfer of energy into the ocean. Our simulations show that this pathway is responsible for up to 10% of the kinetic energy of the oceanic mesoscale eddy field in the South Atlantic. The conditions for this pathway to inject energy directly into the mesoscale prevail over much of the Southern Ocean north of the Polar Front. PMID:27292447

Mesoscale imaging with cryo-light and X-rays: Larger than molecular machines, smaller than a cell: Mesoscale imaging with cryo-light and X-rays

DOE PAGES

Ekman, Axel A.; Chen, Jian-Hua; Guo, Jessica; ...

2016-11-14

In the context of cell biology, the term mesoscale describes length scales ranging from that of an individual cell, down to the size of the molecular machines. In this spatial regime, small building blocks self-organise to form large, functional structures. A comprehensive set of rules governing mesoscale self-organisation has not been established, making the prediction of many cell behaviours difficult, if not impossible. Our knowledge of mesoscale biology comes from experimental data, in particular, imaging. Here, we explore the application of soft X-ray tomography (SXT) to imaging the mesoscale, and describe the structural insights this technology can generate. We alsomore » discuss how SXT imaging is complemented by the addition of correlative fluorescence data measured from the same cell. This combination of two discrete imaging modalities produces a 3D view of the cell that blends high-resolution structural information with precise molecular localisation data.« less

Towards water vapor assimilation into mesoscale models for improved precipitation forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demoz, B.; Whiteman, D.; Venable, D.; Joseph, E.

2006-05-01

Atmospheric water vapor plays a primary role in the life cycle of clouds, precipitation and is crucial in understanding many aspects of the water cycle. It is very important to short-range mesoscale and storm-scale weather prediction. Specifically, accurate characterization of water vapor at low levels is a necessary condition for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), the initiation of convection and various thermodynamic and microphysical processes in mesoscale severe weather systems. However, quantification of its variability (both temporal and spatial) and integration of high quality and high frequency water vapor profiles into mesoscale models have been challenging. We report on a conceptual proposal that attempts to 1) define approporiate lidar-based data and instrumentation required for mesoscale data assimilation and 2) a possible federated network of ground-based lidars that may be capable of acquiring such high resolution water vapor data sets and 3) a possible frame work of assimilation of the data into a mesoscale model.

A daily global mesoscale ocean eddy dataset from satellite altimetry

PubMed Central

Faghmous, James H.; Frenger, Ivy; Yao, Yuanshun; Warmka, Robert; Lindell, Aron; Kumar, Vipin

2015-01-01

Mesoscale ocean eddies are ubiquitous coherent rotating structures of water with radial scales on the order of 100 kilometers. Eddies play a key role in the transport and mixing of momentum and tracers across the World Ocean. We present a global daily mesoscale ocean eddy dataset that contains ~45 million mesoscale features and 3.3 million eddy trajectories that persist at least two days as identified in the AVISO dataset over a period of 1993–2014. This dataset, along with the open-source eddy identification software, extract eddies with any parameters (minimum size, lifetime, etc.), to study global eddy properties and dynamics, and to empirically estimate the impact eddies have on mass or heat transport. Furthermore, our open-source software may be used to identify mesoscale features in model simulations and compare them to observed features. Finally, this dataset can be used to study the interaction between mesoscale ocean eddies and other components of the Earth System. PMID:26097744

Gauging hidden symmetries in two dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samtleben, Henning; Weidner, Martin

2007-08-01

We initiate the systematic construction of gauged matter-coupled supergravity theories in two dimensions. Subgroups of the affine global symmetry group of toroidally compactified supergravity can be gauged by coupling vector fields with minimal couplings and a particular topological term. The gauge groups typically include hidden symmetries that are not among the target-space isometries of the ungauged theory. The gaugings constructed in this paper are described group-theoretically in terms of a constant embedding tensor subject to a number of constraints which parametrizes the different theories and entirely encodes the gauged Lagrangian. The prime example is the bosonic sector of the maximally supersymmetric theory whose ungauged version admits an affine fraktur e9 global symmetry algebra. The various parameters (related to higher-dimensional p-form fluxes, geometric and non-geometric fluxes, etc.) which characterize the possible gaugings, combine into an embedding tensor transforming in the basic representation of fraktur e9. This yields an infinite-dimensional class of maximally supersymmetric theories in two dimensions. We work out and discuss several examples of higher-dimensional origin which can be systematically analyzed using the different gradings of fraktur e9.

Contrasting SYK-like models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, Chethan; Pavan Kumar, K. V.; Rosa, Dario

2018-01-01

We contrast some aspects of various SYK-like models with large- N melonic behavior. First, we note that ungauged tensor models can exhibit symmetry breaking, even though these are 0+1 dimensional theories. Related to this, we show that when gauged, some of them admit no singlets, and are anomalous. The uncolored Majorana tensor model with even N is a simple case where gauge singlets can exist in the spectrum. We outline a strategy for solving for the singlet spectrum, taking advantage of the results in arXiv:1706.05364, and reproduce the singlet states expected in N = 2. In the second part of the paper, we contrast the random matrix aspects of some ungauged tensor models, the original SYK model, and a model due to Gross and Rosenhaus. The latter, even though disorder averaged, shows parallels with the Gurau-Witten model. In particular, the two models fall into identical Andreev ensembles as a function of N . In an appendix, we contrast the (expected) spectra of AdS2 quantum gravity, SYK and SYK-like tensor models, and the zeros of the Riemann Zeta function.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING NOAA

Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, G.

2017-12-01

Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high degree of multicollinearity, possibly illustrating the co-evolution of climatic and physiographic conditions. Given the ineffectiveness of many variables used here, future work should develop new variables that target specific processes associated with percentile flows.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > IMPLEMENTATION INFO Home Mission Models R & D ; Extratropical Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING JUMP TO

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > MODELS Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING SREF

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > CALENDAR Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING CALENDAR

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post / VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > R & D Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING Air

Waves and mesoscale features in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Peng, Chih Y.

1993-01-01

Ocean-ice interaction processes in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) by waves and mesoscale features, such as upwelling and eddies, are studied using ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery and wave-ice interaction models. Satellite observations of mesoscale features can play a crucial role in ocean-ice interaction study.

Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.

Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

Multifunctional Mesoscale Observing Networks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabberdt, Walter F.; Schlatter, Thomas W.; Carr, Frederick H.; Friday, Elbert W. Joe; Jorgensen, David; Koch, Steven; Pirone, Maria; Ralph, F. Martin; Sun, Juanzhen; Welsh, Patrick; Wilson, James W.; Zou, Xiaolei

2005-07-01

More than 120 scientists, engineers, administrators, and users met on 8 10 December 2003 in a workshop format to discuss the needs for enhanced three-dimensional mesoscale observing networks. Improved networks are seen as being critical to advancing numerical and empirical modeling for a variety of mesoscale applications, including severe weather warnings and forecasts, hydrology, air-quality forecasting, chemical emergency response, transportation safety, energy management, and others. The participants shared a clear and common vision for the observing requirements: existing two-dimensional mesoscale measurement networks do not provide observations of the type, frequency, and density that are required to optimize mesoscale prediction and nowcasts. To be viable, mesoscale observing networks must serve multiple applications, and the public, private, and academic sectors must all actively participate in their design and implementation, as well as in the creation and delivery of value-added products. The mesoscale measurement challenge can best be met by an integrated approach that considers all elements of an end-to-end solution—identifying end users and their needs, designing an optimal mix of observations, defining the balance between static and dynamic (targeted or adaptive) sampling strategies, establishing long-term test beds, and developing effective implementation strategies. Detailed recommendations are provided pertaining to nowcasting, numerical prediction and data assimilation, test beds, and implementation strategies.

Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Cheryl S.; Long, Matthew C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Moore, Jefferson K.

2018-04-01

Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation (O(10-100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1° and 0.1° horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (<2%) however, the impact on local export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation.

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet sreak and planetary boundary layer adjustments in organizing an apparently isolated convective complex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, M. L.; Zack, J. W.; Wong, V. C.; Tuccillo, J. J.; Coats, G. D.

1982-01-01

A mesoscale atmospheric simulation system is described that is being developed in order to improve the simulation of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development, and significant atmospheric transport processes. Present emphasis in model development is in the parameterization of physical processes, time-dependent boundary conditions, sophisticated initialization and analysis procedures, nested grid solutions, and applications software development. Basic characteristics of the system as of March 1982 are listed. In a case study, the Grand Island tornado outbreak of 3 June 1980 is considered in substantial detail. Results of simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system indicate that over the high plains subtle interactions between existing jet streaks and deep well mixed boundary layers can lead to well organized patterns of mesoscale divergence and pressure falls. The amplitude and positioning of these mesoscale features is a function of the subtle nonlinear interaction between the pre-existing jet-streak and deep well mixed boundary layers. Model results for the case study indicate that the model has the potential for forecasting the precursor mesoscale convective environment.

A review of major progresses in mesoscale dynamic research in China since 1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xiaoping; Lu, Hancheng; Ni, Yunqi; Tan, Zhemin

2004-06-01

Mesoscale research conducted by Chinese meteorologists during the past four years is reviewed. Advances in theoretical studies include (a) mesoscale quasi-balanced and semi-balanced dynamics, derived through scale analysis and the perturbation method which are suitable for describing mesoscale vortices; (b) subcritical instability and vortex-sheet instability; (c) frontal adjustment mechanism and the effect of topography on frontgenesis; and (d) slantwise vorticity development theories, the slantwise vortex equation, and moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomalies with precipitation-related heat and mass sinks and MPV impermeability theorem. From the MPV conservation viewpoint, the transformation mechanism between different scale weather systems is analyzed. Based on the data analysis, a new dew-point front near the periphery of the West Pacific subtropical high is identified. In the light of MPV theory and Q-vector theory, some events associated with torrential rain systems and severe storms are analyzed and diagnosed. Progress in mesoscale numerical simulation has been made in the development of meso-α, meso-β vortices, meso-γ-scale downbursts and precipitation produced by deep convective systems with MM5 and other mesoscale models.

Insights into Lithium-ion battery degradation and safety mechanisms from mesoscale simulations using experimentally reconstructed mesostructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Scott A.; Mendoza, Hector; Brunini, Victor E.

Battery performance, while observed at the macroscale, is primarily governed by the bicontinuous mesoscale network of the active particles and a polymeric conductive binder in its electrodes. Manufacturing processes affect this mesostructure, and therefore battery performance, in ways that are not always clear outside of empirical relationships. Directly studying the role of the mesostructure is difficult due to the small particle sizes (a few microns) and large mesoscale structures. Mesoscale simulation, however, is an emerging technique that allows the investigation into how particle-scale phenomena affect electrode behavior. In this manuscript, we discuss our computational approach for modeling electrochemical, mechanical, andmore » thermal phenomena of lithium-ion batteries at the mesoscale. Here, we review our recent and ongoing simulation investigations and discuss a path forward for additional simulation insights.« less

Mesoscale disturbances in the tropical stratosphere excited by convection - Observations and effects on the stratospheric momentum budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, Leonhard; Scott, Stanley; Loewenstein, Max; Bowen, Stuart; Legg, Marion

1993-01-01

Aircraft temperature and pressure measurements as well as satellite imagery are used to establish the amplitudes and the space and time scale of potential temperature disturbances over convective systems. A conceptual model is proposed for the generation of mesoscale gravity waves by convection. The momentum forcing that a reasonable distribution of convection might exert on the tropical stratosphere through convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves of the observed amplitudes is estimated. Aircraft measurements show that presence of mesoscale disturbances in the lower stratospheric temperature, disturbances that appear to be associated with underlying convection. If the disturbances are convectively excited mesoscale gravity waves, their amplitude is sufficient that their breakdown in the upper stratosphere will exert a zonal force comparable to but probably smaller than the planetary-scale Kelvin waves.

Insights into Lithium-ion battery degradation and safety mechanisms from mesoscale simulations using experimentally reconstructed mesostructures

DOE PAGES

Roberts, Scott A.; Mendoza, Hector; Brunini, Victor E.; ...

2016-10-20

Battery performance, while observed at the macroscale, is primarily governed by the bicontinuous mesoscale network of the active particles and a polymeric conductive binder in its electrodes. Manufacturing processes affect this mesostructure, and therefore battery performance, in ways that are not always clear outside of empirical relationships. Directly studying the role of the mesostructure is difficult due to the small particle sizes (a few microns) and large mesoscale structures. Mesoscale simulation, however, is an emerging technique that allows the investigation into how particle-scale phenomena affect electrode behavior. In this manuscript, we discuss our computational approach for modeling electrochemical, mechanical, andmore » thermal phenomena of lithium-ion batteries at the mesoscale. Here, we review our recent and ongoing simulation investigations and discuss a path forward for additional simulation insights.« less

A Regionalized Flow Duration Curve Method to Predict Streamflow for Ungauaged Basins: A Case Study of the Rappahannock Watershed in Virginia, USA

EPA Science Inventory

A method to predict streamflow for ungauged basins of the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA was applied to the Rappahannock watershed in Virginia, USA. The method separates streamflow time series into magnitude and time sequence components. It uses the regionalized flow duration curve (RF...

Moving beyond heterogeneity and process complexity: a new vision for watershed hydrology

Treesearch

J. J. McDonnell; M. Sivapalan; K. Vache; S. Dunn; G. Grant; R. Haggerty; C. Hinz; R. Hooper; J. Kirchner; M.L. Roderick; J. Selker; M. Weiler

2007-01-01

Field studies in watershed hydrology continue to characterize and catalogue the enormous heterogeneity and complexity of rainfall runoff processes in more and more watersheds, in different hydroclimatic regimes, and at different scales. Nevertheless, the ability to generalize these findings to ungauged regions remains out of reach. In spite of their apparent physical...

Estimation of daily stream flow of southeastern coastal plain watersheds by combining estimated magnitude and sequence

Treesearch

Herbert Ssegane; Devendra M. Amatya; E.W. Tollner; Zhaohua Dai; Jami E. Nettles

2013-01-01

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined...

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast streamflow component is directly derived from the precipitation duration curve through a simple filter model. The fast component of streamflow is considered to be formed by two contributions that are the entire amount of rainfall falling onto the impervious portion of the basin and the excess of rainfall over a fixed threshold, defining heavy rain events, falling onto the permeable portion. The two obtained FDCs are then overlapped, providing a unique non-zero FDC relative to the total streamflow. Finally, once the probability that the river is dry and the non zero FDC are known, the annual FDC of the daily total streamflow is derived applying the theory of total probability. The model is calibrated on a small catchment with ephemeral streamflows using a long period of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements, and it is successively validated in the same basin using two different time periods. The high model performances obtained in both the validation periods, demonstrate how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from a basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System with Observations from the 1980 Great Plains Mesoscale Tracer Field Experiment. Part I: Datasets and Meteorological Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Michael D.; Pielke, Roger A.

1996-03-01

The Colorado State University mesoscale atmospheric dispersion (MAD) numerical modeling system, which consists of a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model coupled to a mesoscale Lagrangian particle dispersion model, has been used to simulate the transport and diffusion of a perfluorocarbon tracer-gas cloud for one afternoon surface release during the July 1980 Great Plains mesoscale tracer field experiment. Ground-level concentration (GLC) measurements taken along arcs of samplers 100 and 600 km downwind of the release site at Norman, Oklahoma, up to three days after the tracer release were available for comparison. Quantitative measures of a number of significant dispersion characteristics obtained from analysis of the observed tracer cloud's moving GLC `footprint' have been used to evaluate the modeling system's skill in simulating this MAD case.MAD is more dependent upon the spatial and temporal structure of the transport wind field than is short-range atmospheric dispersion. For the Great Plains mesoscale tracer experiment, the observations suggest that the Great Plains nocturnal low-level jet played an important role in transporting and deforming the tracer cloud. A suite of ten two- and three-dimensional numerical meteorological experiments was devised to investigate the relative contributions of topography, other surface inhomogeneities, atmospheric baroclinicity, synoptic-scale flow evolution, and meteorological model initialization time to the structure and evolution of the low-level mesoscale flow field and thus to MAD. Results from the ten mesoscale meteorological simulations are compared in this part of the paper. The predicted wind fields display significant differences, which give rise in turn to significant differences in predicted low-level transport. The presence of an oscillatory ageostrophic component in the observed synoptic low-level winds for this case is shown to complicate initialization of the meteorological model considerably and is the likely cause of directional errors in the predicted mean tracer transport. A companion paper describes the results from the associated dispersion simulations.

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kocin, P. J.; Uccellini, L. W.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

1984-01-01

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Mesoscale research activities with the LAMPS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.

1985-01-01

Researchers achieved full implementation of the LAMPS mesoscale model on the Atmospheric Sciences Division computer and derived balanced and real wind initial states for three case studies: March 6, April 24, April 26, 1982. Numerical simulations were performed for three separate studies: (1) a satellite moisture data impact study using Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) precipitable water as a constraint on model initial state moisture analyses; (2) an evaluation of mesoscale model precipitation simulation accuracy with and without convective parameterization; and (3) the sensitivity of model precipitation to mesoscale detail of moisture and vertical motion in an initial state.

Network-based Modeling of Mesoscale Catchments - The Hydrology Perspective of Glowa-danube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.; Escher-Vetter, H.; Hennicker, R.; Mauser, W.; Niemeyer, S.; Reichstein, M.; Tenhunen, J.

Within the GLOWA initiative of the German Ministry for Research and Educa- tion (BMBF), the project GLOWA-Danube is funded to establish a transdisciplinary network-based decision support tool for water related issues in the Upper Danube wa- tershed. It aims to develop and validate integration techniques, integrated models and integrated monitoring procedures and to implement them in the network-based De- cision Support System DANUBIA. An accurate description of processes involved in energy, water and matter fluxes and turnovers requires an intense collaboration and exchange of water related expertise of different scientific disciplines. DANUBIA is conceived as a distributed expert network and is developed on the basis of re-useable, refineable, and documented sub-models. In order to synthesize a common understand- ing between the project partners, a standardized notation of parameters and functions and a platform-independent structure of computational methods and interfaces has been established using the Unified Modeling Language UML. DANUBIA is object- oriented, spatially distributed and raster-based at its core. It applies the concept of "proxels" (Process Pixel) as its basic object, which has different dimensions depend- ing on the viewing scale and connects to its environment through fluxes. The presented study excerpts the hydrological view point of GLOWA-Danube, its approach of model coupling and network based communication (using the Remote Method Invocation RMI), the object-oriented technology to simulate physical processes and interactions at the land surface and the methodology to treat the issue of spatial and temporal scal- ing in large, heterogeneous catchments. The mechanisms applied to communicate data and model parameters across the typical discipline borders will be demonstrated from the perspective of a land-surface object, which comprises the capabilities of interde- pendent expert models for snowmelt, soil water movement, runoff formation, plant growth and radiation balance in a distributed JAVA-based modeling environment. The coupling to the adjacent physical objects of atmosphere, groundwater and river net- work will also be addressed.

Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Seibert, J.

2018-01-01

Despite precipitation intensities may greatly vary during one flood event, detailed information about these intensities may not be required to accurately simulate floods with a hydrological model which rather reacts to cumulative precipitation sums. This raises two questions: to which extent is it important to preserve sub-daily precipitation intensities and how long does it effectively rain from the hydrological point of view? Both questions might seem straightforward to answer with a direct analysis of past precipitation events but require some arbitrary choices regarding the length of a precipitation event. To avoid these arbitrary decisions, here we present an alternative approach to characterize the effective length of precipitation event which is based on runoff simulations with respect to large floods. More precisely, we quantify the fraction of a day over which the daily precipitation has to be distributed to faithfully reproduce the large annual and seasonal floods which were generated by the hourly precipitation rate time series. New precipitation time series were generated by first aggregating the hourly observed data into daily totals and then evenly distributing them over sub-daily periods (n hours). These simulated time series were used as input to a hydrological bucket-type model and the resulting runoff flood peaks were compared to those obtained when using the original precipitation time series. We define then the effective daily precipitation duration as the number of hours n, for which the largest peaks are simulated best. For nine mesoscale Swiss catchments this effective daily precipitation duration was about half a day, which indicates that detailed information on precipitation intensities is not necessarily required to accurately estimate peaks of the largest annual and seasonal floods. These findings support the use of simple disaggregation approaches to make usage of past daily precipitation observations or daily precipitation simulations (e.g. from climate models) for hydrological modeling at an hourly time step.

Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Chia-Bo

1994-01-01

This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model output can provide reliable guidance for thunderstorm forecasting.

Geostatistical Analysis of Mesoscale Spatial Variability and Error in SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua Global Ocean Color Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, David M.; Doney, Scott C.; Oestreich, William K.; Tullo, Alisdair W.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale (10-300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998-2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003-2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation.

Eddy energy sources and mesoscale eddies in the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry V.; Diansky, Nikolay A.; Fomin, Vladimir V.

2018-05-01

Based on eddy-permitting ocean circulation model outputs, the mesoscale variability is studied in the Sea of Okhotsk. We confirmed that the simulated circulation reproduces the main features of the general circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk. In particular, it reproduced a complex structure of the East-Sakhalin current and the pronounced seasonal variability of this current. We established that the maximum of mean kinetic energy was associated with the East-Sakhalin Current. In order to uncover causes and mechanisms of the mesoscale variability, we studied the budget of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Sea of Okhotsk. Spatial distribution of the EKE showed that intensive mesoscale variability occurs along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the East-Sakhalin Current extends. We revealed a pronounced seasonal variability of EKE with its maximum intensity in winter and its minimum intensity in summer. Analysis of EKE sources and rates of energy conversion revealed a leading role of time-varying (turbulent) wind stress in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk in winter and spring. We established that a contribution of baroclinic instability predominates over that of barotropic instability in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. To demonstrate the mechanism of baroclinic instability, the simulated circulation was considered along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk from January to April 2005. In April, the mesoscale anticyclonic eddies are observed along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. The role of the sea ice cover in the intensification of the mesoscale variability in the Sea of Okhotsk was discussed.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

On the Interactions Between Planetary and Mesoscale Dynamics in the Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grooms, I.; Julien, K. A.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2011-12-01

Multiple-scales asymptotic methods are used to investigate the interaction of planetary and mesoscale dynamics in the oceans. We find three regimes. In the first, the slow, large-scale planetary flow sets up a baroclinically unstable background which leads to vigorous mesoscale eddy generation, but the eddy dynamics do not affect the planetary dynamics. In the second, the planetary flow feels the effects of the eddies, but appears to be unable to generate them. The first two regimes rely on horizontally isotropic large-scale dynamics. In the third regime, large-scale anisotropy, as exists for example in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in western boundary currents, allows the large-scale dynamics to both generate and respond to mesoscale eddies. We also discuss how the investigation may be brought to bear on the problem of parameterization of unresolved mesoscale dynamics in ocean general circulation models.

Simulation of the atmospheric thermal circulation of a martian volcano using a mesoscale numerical model.

PubMed

Rafkin, Scot C R; Sta Maria, Magdalena R V; Michaels, Timothy I

2002-10-17

Mesoscale (<100 km) atmospheric phenomena are ubiquitous on Mars, as revealed by Mars Orbiter Camera images. Numerical models provide an important means of investigating martian atmospheric dynamics, for which data availability is limited. But the resolution of general circulation models, which are traditionally used for such research, is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale phenomena. To provide better understanding of these relatively small-scale phenomena, mesoscale models have recently been introduced. Here we simulate the mesoscale spiral dust cloud observed over the caldera of the volcano Arsia Mons by using the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. Our simulation uses a hierarchy of nested models with grid sizes ranging from 240 km to 3 km, and reveals that the dust cloud is an indicator of a greater but optically thin thermal circulation that reaches heights of up to 30 km, and transports dust horizontally over thousands of kilometres.

Importance of rodents for hydrology: lessons learnt from various field experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Schaik, Loes; Zangerlé, Anne; Schneider, Anne-Kathrin; Schröder, Boris; Eccard, Jana

2017-04-01

organisms are known to create soil macropores of different sizes and with varying extent and orientation: most commonly earthworms, rodents, moles and roots. Preferential flow through macropore networks is dynamic and typically occurs when short individual macropores become connected at the hillslope scale as the nodes between the macropores become wet. Large lateral macropores may contribute to rapid subsurface stormflow of water and solutes at hillslope scale and supply a significant part of the catchment scale discharge during high intensity rainfall events even under relatively dry catchment state. Outflow from soil pipes, especially in the valley bottom or along the banking near to streams, is frequently observed, however, it remains a challenge to measure the spatial distribution, extent and connectivity of macropores at hill slope scales. We hypothesize that local information on organism abundances may be used as an indicator for spatial variability in infiltration, water storage and fluxes at the small scale and that knowledge on the landscape scale spatial distribution of organisms can provide information on connectivity of macropores at hillslope scale. Here we summarize the lessons learnt during three years of measurements aimed at determining the influence of rodent burrows on soil hydrology in a meso-scale catchment. Within the Attert Catchment (297 km2) in Luxembourg we performed sprinkling experiments with a brilliant blue tracer on twelve plots, of which six directly above rodent burrow openings and six on a surface without a rodent burrow opening, in order to examine the influence of the burrow openings on the infiltration pattern. Then we tested the extent of flow through mice burrows in different forest types, with varying geology and slope, by supplying 5 Liters of water with brilliant blue tracer directly to 24 burrow openings at soil surface. We excavated the burrows to measure how far the water was transported laterally in the burrow. Though we have serendipitous evidence of lateral water flow through large macropores in deeper soil layers from other projects, with the experiments we performed with the purpose to characterize this, the water did not seem to infiltrate into the burrow openings at the soil surface at all and the infiltration pattern under burrows was not different from that in soils without these openings. The five liter of brilliant blue dyed water which we poured into burrow openings did not flow far into the burrows, it generally infiltrated straight away into the surrounding soil. These results seem to show that the infiltration of water to rodent macropores during high intensity events does not take place at the soil surface but rather through other macropores, e.g. earthworm channels, which connect to deeper lateral channels. Also the lateral flow of water through the rodent burrows is apparently more effective in the deeper soils, where we occasionally saw a burrow with completely blue walls but little infiltration into the surrounding matrix.

Mesoscale Simulation Data for Initializing Fast-Time Wake Transport and Decay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nashat N.; Proctor, Fred H.; Vanvalkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Mathew J.; LimonDuparcmeur, Fanny M.

2012-01-01

The fast-time wake transport and decay models require vertical profiles of crosswinds, potential temperature and the eddy dissipation rate as initial conditions. These inputs are normally obtained from various field sensors. In case of data-denied scenarios or operational use, these initial conditions can be provided by mesoscale model simulations. In this study, the vertical profiles of potential temperature from a mesoscale model were used as initial conditions for the fast-time wake models. The mesoscale model simulations were compared against available observations and the wake model predictions were compared with the Lidar measurements from three wake vortex field experiments.

Mesoscale brain explorer, a flexible python-based image analysis and visualization tool.

PubMed

Haupt, Dirk; Vanni, Matthieu P; Bolanos, Federico; Mitelut, Catalin; LeDue, Jeffrey M; Murphy, Tim H

2017-07-01

Imaging of mesoscale brain activity is used to map interactions between brain regions. This work has benefited from the pioneering studies of Grinvald et al., who employed optical methods to image brain function by exploiting the properties of intrinsic optical signals and small molecule voltage-sensitive dyes. Mesoscale interareal brain imaging techniques have been advanced by cell targeted and selective recombinant indicators of neuronal activity. Spontaneous resting state activity is often collected during mesoscale imaging to provide the basis for mapping of connectivity relationships using correlation. However, the information content of mesoscale datasets is vast and is only superficially presented in manuscripts given the need to constrain measurements to a fixed set of frequencies, regions of interest, and other parameters. We describe a new open source tool written in python, termed mesoscale brain explorer (MBE), which provides an interface to process and explore these large datasets. The platform supports automated image processing pipelines with the ability to assess multiple trials and combine data from different animals. The tool provides functions for temporal filtering, averaging, and visualization of functional connectivity relations using time-dependent correlation. Here, we describe the tool and show applications, where previously published datasets were reanalyzed using MBE.

Learning from Nature - Mapping of Complex Hydrological and Geomorphological Process Systems for More Realistic Modelling of Hazard-related Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chifflard, Peter; Tilch, Nils

2010-05-01

Introduction Hydrological or geomorphological processes in nature are often very diverse and complex. This is partly due to the regional characteristics which vary over time and space, as well as changeable process-initiating and -controlling factors. Despite being aware of this complexity, such aspects are usually neglected in the modelling of hazard-related maps due to several reasons. But particularly when it comes to creating more realistic maps, this would be an essential component to consider. The first important step towards solving this problem would be to collect data relating to regional conditions which vary over time and geographical location, along with indicators of complex processes. Data should be acquired promptly during and after events, and subsequently digitally combined and analysed. Study area In June 2009, considerable damage occurred in the residential area of Klingfurth (Lower Austria) as a result of great pre-event wetness and repeatedly heavy rainfall, leading to flooding, debris flow deposit and gravitational mass movement. One of the causes is the fact that the meso-scale watershed (16 km²) of the Klingfurth stream is characterised by adverse geological and hydrological conditions. Additionally, the river system network with its discharge concentration within the residential zone contributes considerably to flooding, particularly during excessive rainfall across the entire region, as the flood peaks from different parts of the catchment area are superposed. First results of mapping Hydro(geo)logical surveys across the entire catchment area have shown that - over 600 gravitational mass movements of various type and stage have occurred. 516 of those have acted as a bed load source, while 325 mass movements had not reached the final stage yet and could thus supply bed load in the future. It should be noted that large mass movements in the initial or intermediate stage were predominately found in clayey-silty areas and weathered material, where the fluvial bank erosion only plays a minor role as an initiating factor. On the other hand, fluvial bank erosion does appear to be a cause of smaller mass movements in their final stage which develop spontaneously, most noticeably in regions of gravel-rich soils (coarse-grained) and of shallow weathered material (several decimetres). - numerous marks of surface runoff were found over the entire catchment area to a greatly variable extent and intensity. In the more eastern parts of the catchment, these signs can be linked especially to anthropogenic concentrated inputs of surface discharge e.g. drainage system of streets. Their spread is limited, but usually associated with huge erosion channels of up to 2 m depth. In the western parts of the catchment, however, signs of surface discharge are more commonly found in forests. Depending on their location, they can be a result of an up-hill infiltration surplus in areas of fields and pastures, or an infiltration surplus in the forest itself. In many places, rapid interflow through biologically-created macropores takes place, which often re-emerges at the surface in the form of return flow. In general, it is noticeable that marks of surface runoff often terminate at the scarps of landslides, which were not caused by fluvial bank erosion. The excess water produces a strong local saturation of the ground, which gives a higher landslide-susceptibility of the embankment. Future work Based on the acquired field knowledge, it was possible to distinguish areas of different heterogeneities/homogeneities of the dominant process chains for several micro-scale parts of the catchment area. Subsequently, conceptual slope profiles should be derived from the detailed field data, and these should include information of the dominant and complex process systems. This forms an essential starting point in order to be able to realistically consider relevant hazard-related processes as part of process-oriented modelling.

Mesoscale thermospheric wind in response to nightside auroral brightening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimura, T.; Zou, Y.; Gabrielse, C.; Lyons, L. R.; Varney, R. H.; Conde, M.; Hampton, D. L.; Mende, S. B.

2017-12-01

Although high-latitude ionospheric flows and thermospheric winds in the F-region are overall characterized by two-cell patterns over a global scale ( 1000 km), intense energy input from the magnetosphere often occurs in a mesoscale ( 100 km) and transient manner ( 10 min). Intense mesoscale energy input would drive enhanced mesoscale winds, whose properties are closely associated with auroral arcs and associated ionospheric flows. However, how thermospheric winds respond to and distribute around mesoscale magnetospheric input has not been characterized systematically. This presentation addresses how mesoscale winds distribute around quasi-steady arcs, evolve and distribute around transient arcs, and vary with geomagnetic and solar activity. We use Scanning Doppler Imagers (SDIs), all-sky imagers and PFISR over Alaska. A channel of azimuthal neutral wind is often found associated with localized flow channels adjacent to quasi-steady discrete aurora. The wind speed dynamically changes after a short time lag (a few tens of minutes) from auroral brightenings, including auroral streamers and intensifications on preexisting auroral arcs. This is in contrast to a much longer time lag ( 1 hour) reported previously. During a storm main phase, a coherent equatorward motion of the Harang discontinuity was seen in plasma flow, aurora and neutral wind, with a few degrees of equatorward displacement of the neutral wind Harang, which is probably due to the inertia. These results suggest that a tight M-I-T connection exists under the energy input of assorted auroral arcs and that mesoscale coupling processes are important in M-I-T energy transfer.

Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged, Irrigated Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

The international "predictions in ungauged basins" or "PUB" effort has broadened and improved the tools available to support water resources management in sparsely observed regions. These tools have, however, been primarily focused on regions with limited diversion of surface or shallow groundwater resources. Incorporating anthropogenic activity into PUB methods is essential given the high level of development of many basins. We extended an existing stochastic framework used to predict the flow duration curve to explore the effects of irrigation on streamflow dynamics. Four canonical scenarios were considered in which irrigation water was (i) primarily sourced from water imports, (ii) primarily sourced from direct in-channel diversions, (iii) sourced from shallow groundwater with direct connectivity to stream channels, or (iv) sourced from deep groundwater that is indirectly connected to surface flow via a shallow aquifer. By comparing the predicted flow duration curves to those predicted by accounting for climate and geomorphic factors in isolation, specific "fingerprints" of human water withdrawals could be identified for the different irrigation scenarios, and shown to be sensitive to irrigation volumes and scheduling. The results provide a first insight into PUB methodologies that could be employed in heavily managed basins.

Spatial analysis of relative humidity during ungauged periods in a mountainous region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Yeonjoo

2017-08-01

Although atmospheric humidity influences environmental and agricultural conditions, thereby influencing plant growth, human health, and air pollution, efforts to develop spatial maps of atmospheric humidity using statistical approaches have thus far been limited. This study therefore aims to develop statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of relative humidity (RH) for a mountainous island, for which data are not uniformly available across the region. A multiple regression analysis based on various mathematical models was used to identify the optimal model for estimating monthly RH by incorporating not only temperature but also location and elevation. Based on the regression analysis, we extended the monthly RH data from weather stations to cover the ungauged periods when no RH observations were available. Then, two different types of station-based data, the observational data and the data extended via the regression model, were used to form grid-based data with a resolution of 100 m. The grid-based data that used the extended station-based data captured the increasing RH trend along an elevation gradient. Furthermore, annual RH values averaged over the regions were examined. Decreasing temporal trends were found in most cases, with magnitudes varying based on the season and region.

High Resolution Mesoscale Weather Data Improvement to Spatial Effects for Dose-Rate Contour Plot Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

time. This is a very powerful tool in determining fine spatial resolution , as boundary conditions are not only updated at every timestep, but the ...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT PREDICTIONS THESIS Christopher P...11 1 HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT

Meso-scale Computational Investigation of Polyurea Microstructure and Its Role in Shockwave Attenuation/dispersion

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

grained simulations of the formation of meso-segregated microstructure and its interaction with the shockwave is analyzed in the present work. It is...help identify these phenomena and processes, meso-scale coarse-grained simulations of the formation of meso-segregated microstructure and its...of shockwave-induced hard-domain densification. Keywords: Polyurea; Meso-scale; Coarse-grained simulations ; Shockwave attenuation; shockwave

Controls on Water Storage, Mixing and Release in a Nested Catchment Set-up with Clean and Mixed Physiographic Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, L.; McDonnell, J.; Hissler, C.; Martínez-Carreras, N.; Klaus, J.

2015-12-01

With catchment water storage being only rarely determined, storage dynamics remain largely unknown to date. However, storage bears considerable potential for catchment inter-comparison exercises, as well as it is likely to have an important role in regulating catchment functions. Catchment comparisons across a wide range of environments and scales will help to increase our understanding of relationships between storage dynamics and catchment processes. With respect to the potential of catchment storage for bringing new momentum to catchment classification and catchment processes understanding we currently investigate spatial and temporal variability of dynamic storage in a nested catchment set-up (16 catchments) of the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg, Europe), covering a wide range of geological settings, catchment areas, contrasted landuse, and hydro-meteorological and tracer series. We define catchment storage as the total amount of water stored in a control volume, delimited by the catchment's topographical boundaries and depth of saturated and unsaturated zones. Complementary storage assessments (via input-output dynamics of natural tracers, geographical sounding, groundwater level measurements, soil moisture measurements, hydrometry) are carried out for comparison purposes. In our nested catchment set-up we have (1) assessed dependencies between geology, catchment permeability and winter runoff coefficients, (2) calculated water balance derived catchment storage and mixing potential and quantified how dynamic storage differs between catchments and scales, and (3) examined how stream baseflow dD (as a proxy for baseflow transit time) and integrated flow measures (like the flow duration curve) relate to bedrock geology. Catchments with higher bedrock permeability exhibited larger storage capacities and eventually lower average winter runoff coefficients. Over a time-span of 11 years, all catchments re-produced the same winter runoff coefficients year after year, regardless of their bedrock geology, permeability and winter season storage filling ratios. Ultimately, catchment organisation in our area of interest (i.e. geology, permeability, flowpath length) appeared to have a strong control on winter runoff coefficients, catchment storage and subsequently baseflow dD.

Development of Joint Climate and Discharge Projections for the International Rhine River Basin - the CHR RheinBlick2050 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Görgen, K.; Pfister, L.

2008-12-01

The anticipated climate change will lead to modified hydro-meteorological regimes that influence discharge behaviour and hydraulics of rivers. This has variable impacts on managed (anthropogenic) and unmanaged (natural) systems, depending on their sensitivity and vulnerability (ecology, economy, infrastructure, transport, energy production, water management, etc.). Decision makers in these contexts need adequate adaptation strategies to minimize adverse effects of climate change, i.e. an improved knowledge on the potential impacts including uncertainties means an extension of the informed options open to users. The goal of the highly applied study presented here is the development of joint, consistent climate and discharge projections for the international Rhine River catchments (Switzerland, France, Germany, Netherlands) in order to assess future changes of hydro-meteorological regimes in the meso- and macroscale Rhine River catchments and to derive and improve the understanding of such impacts on hydrologic and hydraulic processes. The RheinBlick2050 project is an international effort initiated by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in close cooperation with the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine. The core experiment design foresees a data-synthesis, multi-model approach where (transient) (bias- corrected) regional climate change projections are used as forcing data for existing calibrated hydrological (and hydraulic) models at a daily temporal resolution over mesoscale catchments of the Rhine River. Mainly for validation purposes, hydro-meteorological observations from national weather services are compiled into a new consistent 5 km x 5 km reference dataset from 1961 to 2005. RCM data are mainly used from the ENSEMBLES project and other existing dynamical downscaling model runs to derive probabilistic ensembles and thereby also access uncertainties on a regional scale. A benchmarking is helping to identify those atmospheric forcing data that ideally suit the needs for the subsequent hydrological model runs with the LARSIM and HBV models and evaluate those simulations too. As a result, usable information and quantifiable statements (e.g. extreme value statistics, uncertainty assessment, validation), that might form the basis for further planning or policy relevant decisions, are to be derived. Our analyses are highly influenced by the requirements of the potential users and stakeholders from government agencies who shall make use of the data and results. Here we present first results of the application of the complete data processing and modelling chain towards discharge projections on a subset of input data, albeit still without any bias correction applied to the meteorological forcing data.

Studies of MGS TES and MPF MET Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Jeff R.

2003-01-01

The work supported by this grant was divided into two broad areas: (1) mesoscale modeling of atmospheric circulations and analyses of Pathfinder, Viking, and other Mars data, and (2) analyses of MGS TES temperature data. The mesoscale modeling began with the development of a suitable Mars mesoscale model based upon the terrestrial MM5 model, which was then applied to the simulation of the meteorological observations at the Pathfinder and Viking Lander 1 sites during northern summer. This extended study served a dual purpose: to validate the new mesoscale model with the best of the available in-situ data, and to use the model to aid in the interpretation of the surface meteorological data.

van der Waals Interactions on the Mesoscale: Open-Science Implementation, Anisotropy, Retardation, and Solvent Effects.

PubMed

Dryden, Daniel M; Hopkins, Jaime C; Denoyer, Lin K; Poudel, Lokendra; Steinmetz, Nicole F; Ching, Wai-Yim; Podgornik, Rudolf; Parsegian, Adrian; French, Roger H

2015-09-22

The self-assembly of heterogeneous mesoscale systems is mediated by long-range interactions, including van der Waals forces. Diverse mesoscale architectures, built of optically and morphologically anisotropic elements such as DNA, collagen, single-walled carbon nanotubes, and inorganic materials, require a tool to calculate the forces, torques, interaction energies, and Hamaker coefficients that govern assembly in such systems. The mesoscale Lifshitz theory of van der Waals interactions can accurately describe solvent and temperature effects, retardation, and optically and morphologically anisotropic materials for cylindrical and planar interaction geometries. The Gecko Hamaker open-science software implementation of this theory enables new and sophisticated insights into the properties of important organic/inorganic systems: interactions show an extended range of magnitudes and retardation rates, DNA interactions show an imprint of base pair composition, certain SWCNT interactions display retardation-dependent nonmonotonicity, and interactions are mapped across a range of material systems in order to facilitate rational mesoscale design.

Frequency-dependent scaling from mesoscale to macroscale in viscoelastic random composites

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jun

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the scaling from a statistical volume element (SVE; i.e. mesoscale level) to representative volume element (RVE; i.e. macroscale level) of spatially random linear viscoelastic materials, focusing on the quasi-static properties in the frequency domain. Requiring the material statistics to be spatially homogeneous and ergodic, the mesoscale bounds on the RVE response are developed from the Hill–Mandel homogenization condition adapted to viscoelastic materials. The bounds are obtained from two stochastic initial-boundary value problems set up, respectively, under uniform kinematic and traction boundary conditions. The frequency and scale dependencies of mesoscale bounds are obtained through computational mechanics for composites with planar random chessboard microstructures. In general, the frequency-dependent scaling to RVE can be described through a complex-valued scaling function, which generalizes the concept originally developed for linear elastic random composites. This scaling function is shown to apply for all different phase combinations on random chessboards and, essentially, is only a function of the microstructure and mesoscale. PMID:27274689

Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.

Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in windmore » plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.« less

Scaling Characteristics of Mesoscale Wind Fields in the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Implications for Wind Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiliyanpilakkil, Velayudhan Praju

Atmospheric motions take place in spatial scales of sub-millimeters to few thousands of kilometers with temporal changes in the atmospheric variables occur in fractions of seconds to several years. Consequently, the variations in atmospheric kinetic energy associated with these atmospheric motions span over a broad spectrum of space and time. The mesoscale region acts as an energy transferring regime between the energy generating synoptic scale and the energy dissipating microscale. Therefore, the scaling characterizations of mesoscale wind fields are significant in the accurate estimation of the atmospheric energy budget. Moreover, the precise knowledge of the scaling characteristics of atmospheric mesoscale wind fields is important for the validation of the numerical models those focus on wind forecasting, dispersion, diffusion, horizontal transport, and optical turbulence. For these reasons, extensive studies have been conducted in the past to characterize the mesoscale wind fields. Nevertheless, the majority of these studies focused on near-surface and upper atmosphere mesoscale regimes. The present study attempt to identify the existence and to quantify the scaling of mesoscale wind fields in the lower atmospheric boundary layer (ABL; in the wind turbine layer) using wind observations from various research-grade instruments (e.g., sodars, anemometers). The scaling characteristics of the mesoscale wind speeds over diverse homogeneous flat terrains, conducted using structure function based analysis, revealed an altitudinal dependence of the scaling exponents. This altitudinal dependence of the wind speed scaling may be attributed to the buoyancy forcing. Subsequently, we use the framework of extended self-similarity (ESS) to characterize the observed scaling behavior. In the ESS framework, the relative scaling exponents of the mesoscale atmospheric boundary layer wind speed exhibit quasi-universal behavior; even far beyond the inertial range of turbulence (Delta t within 10 minutes to 6 hours range). The ESS framework based study is extended further to enquire its validity over complex terrain. This study, based on multiyear wind observations, demonstrate that the ESS holds for the lower ABL wind speed over the complex terrain as well. Another important inference from this study is that the ESS relative scaling exponents corresponding to the mesoscale wind speed closely matches the scaling characteristics of the inertial range turbulence, albeit not exactly identical. The current study proposes benchmark using ESS-based quasi-universal wind speed scaling characteristics in the ABL for the mesoscale modeling community. Using a state-of-the-art atmospheric mesoscale model in conjunction with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, multiple wind speed simulations have been conducted. This study reveals that the ESS scaling characteristics of the model simulated wind speed time series in the lower ABL vary significantly from their observational counterparts. The study demonstrate that the model simulated wind speed time series for the time intervals Delta t < 2 hours do not capture the ESS-based scaling characteristics. The detailed analysis of model simulations using different PBL schemes lead to the conclusion that there is a need for significant improvements in the turbulent closure parameterizations adapted in the new-generation atmospheric models. This study is unique as the ESS framework has never been reported or examined for the validation of PBL parameterizations.

Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Kazuo; Hara, Masahiro; Kunii, Masaru; Seko, Hiromu; Yamaguchi, Munehiko

2011-05-01

Different initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction were compared by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) as a part of the intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Five initial perturbation methods for mesoscale ensemble prediction were developed for B08RDP and compared at MRI: (1) a downscaling method of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week EPS (WEP), (2) a targeted global model singular vector (GSV) method, (3) a mesoscale model singular vector (MSV) method based on the adjoint model of the JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM), (4) a mesoscale breeding growing mode (MBD) method based on the NHM forecast and (5) a local ensemble transform (LET) method based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) using NHM. These perturbation methods were applied to the preliminary experiments of the B08RDP Tier-1 mesoscale ensemble prediction with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. To make the comparison easier, the same horizontal resolution (40 km) was employed for the three mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods (MSV, MBD and LET). The GSV method completely outperformed the WEP method, confirming the advantage of targeting in mesoscale EPS. The GSV method generally performed well with regard to root mean square errors of the ensemble mean, large growth rates of ensemble spreads throughout the 36-h forecast period, and high detection rates and high Brier skill scores (BSSs) for weak rains. On the other hand, the mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods showed good detection rates and BSSs for intense rains. The MSV method showed a rapid growth in the ensemble spread of precipitation up to a forecast time of 6 h, which suggests suitability of the mesoscale SV for short-range EPSs, but the initial large growth of the perturbation did not last long. The performance of the MBD method was good for ensemble prediction of intense rain with a relatively small computing cost. The LET method showed similar characteristics to the MBD method, but the spread and growth rate were slightly smaller and the relative operating characteristic area skill score and BSS did not surpass those of MBD. These characteristic features of the five methods were confirmed by checking the evolution of the total energy norms and their growth rates. Characteristics of the initial perturbations obtained by four methods (GSV, MSV, MBD and LET) were examined for the case of a synoptic low-pressure system passing over eastern China. With GSV and MSV, the regions of large spread were near the low-pressure system, but with MSV, the distribution was more concentrated on the mesoscale disturbance. On the other hand, large-spread areas were observed southwest of the disturbance in MBD and LET. The horizontal pattern of LET perturbation was similar to that of MBD, but the amplitude of the LET perturbation reflected the observation density.

Estimating spatially distributed soil texture using time series of thermal remote sensing - a case study in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Benjamin; Bernhardt, Matthias; Jackisch, Conrad; Schulz, Karsten

2016-09-01

For understanding water and solute transport processes, knowledge about the respective hydraulic properties is necessary. Commonly, hydraulic parameters are estimated via pedo-transfer functions using soil texture data to avoid cost-intensive measurements of hydraulic parameters in the laboratory. Therefore, current soil texture information is only available at a coarse spatial resolution of 250 to 1000 m. Here, a method is presented to derive high-resolution (15 m) spatial topsoil texture patterns for the meso-scale Attert catchment (Luxembourg, 288 km2) from 28 images of ASTER (advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer) thermal remote sensing. A principle component analysis of the images reveals the most dominant thermal patterns (principle components, PCs) that are related to 212 fractional soil texture samples. Within a multiple linear regression framework, distributed soil texture information is estimated and related uncertainties are assessed. An overall root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.7 percentage points (pp) lies well within and even below the range of recent studies on soil texture estimation, while requiring sparser sample setups and a less diverse set of basic spatial input. This approach will improve the generation of spatially distributed topsoil maps, particularly for hydrologic modeling purposes, and will expand the usage of thermal remote sensing products.

Investigation of mesoscale meteorological phenomena as observed by geostationary satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brundidge, K. C.

1982-01-01

Satellite imagery plus conventional synoptic observations were used to examine three mesoscale systems recently observed by the GOES-EAST satellite. The three systems are an arc cloud complex (ACC), mountain lee wave clouds and cloud streets parallel to the wind shear. Possible gravity-wave activity is apparent in all three cases. Of particular interest is the ACC because of its ability to interact with other mesoscale phenomena to produce or enhance convection.

Mesoscale modeling of solute precipitation and radiation damage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yongfeng; Schwen, Daniel; Ke, Huibin

2015-09-01

This report summarizes the low length scale effort during FY 2014 in developing mesoscale capabilities for microstructure evolution in reactor pressure vessels. During operation, reactor pressure vessels are subject to hardening and embrittlement caused by irradiation-induced defect accumulation and irradiation-enhanced solute precipitation. Both defect production and solute precipitation start from the atomic scale, and manifest their eventual effects as degradation in engineering-scale properties. To predict the property degradation, multiscale modeling and simulation are needed to deal with the microstructure evolution, and to link the microstructure feature to material properties. In this report, the development of mesoscale capabilities for defect accumulationmore » and solute precipitation are summarized. Atomic-scale efforts that supply information for the mesoscale capabilities are also included.« less

A Numerical Study of Nonlinear Nonhydrostatic Conditional Symmetric Instability in a Convectively Unstable Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seman, Charles J.

1994-06-01

Nonlinear nonhydrostatic conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is studied as an initial value problem using a two-dimensional (y, z)nonlinear, nonhydrostatic numerical mesoscale/cloud model. The initial atmosphere for the rotating, baroclinic (BCF) simulation contains large convective available potential energy (CAPE). Analytical theory, various model output diagnostics, and a companion nonrotating barotropic (BTNF) simulation are used to interpret the results from the BCF simulation. A single warm moist thermal initiates convection for the two 8-h simulations.The BCF simulation exhibited a very intricate life cycle. Following the initial convection, a series of discrete convective cells developed within a growing mesoscale circulation. Between hours 4 and 8, the circulation grew upscale into a structure resembling that of a squall-line mesoscale convective system (MCS). The mesoscale updrafts were nearly vertical and the circulation was strongest on the baroclinically cool side of the initial convection, as predicted by a two-dimensional Lagrangian parcel model of CSI with CAPE. The cool-side mesoscale circulation grew nearly exponentially over the last 5 h as it slowly propagated toward the warm air. Significant vertical transport of zonal momentum occurred in the (multicellular) convection that developed, resulting in local subgeostrophic zonal wind anomalies aloft. Over time, geostrophic adjustment acted to balance these anomalies. The system became warm core, with mesohigh pressure aloft and mesolow pressure at the surface. A positive zonal wind anomaly also formed downstream from the mesohigh.Analysis of the BCF simulation showed that convective momentum transport played a key role in the evolution of the simulated MCS, in that it fostered the development of the nonlinear CSI on mesoscale time scales. The vertical momentum transport in the initial deep convection generated a subgeostrophic zonal momentum anomaly aloft; the resulting imbalance in pressure gradient and Coriolis forces accelerated the meridional outflow toward the baroclinically cool side, transporting zonal momentum horizontally. The vertical (horizontal) momentum transport occurred on a convective (inertial) time scale. Taken together, the sloping convective updraft/cool side outflow represents the release of the CSI in the convectively unstable atmosphere. Further diagnostics showed that mass transports in the horizontal outflow branch ventilated the upper levels of the system, with enhanced mesoscale lifting in the core and on the leading edge of the MCS, which assisted in convective redevelopments on mesoscale time scales. Geostrophic adjustment acted to balance the convectively generated zonal momentum anomalies, thereby limiting the strength of the meridional outflow predicted by CSI theory. Circulation tendency diagnostics showed that the mesoscale circulation developed in response to thermal wind imbalances generated by the deep convection.Comparison of the BCF and BTNF simulations showed that baroclinicity enhanced mesoscale circulation growth. The BTNF circulation was more transient on mesoscale time and space scales. Overall, the BCF system produced more rainfall than the BTNF.Based on the present and past work in CSI theory, a new definition for the term `slantwise convection' is proposed.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, Ben P.; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

PubMed

Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

A summary of research on mesoscale energetics of severe storm environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1985-01-01

The goals of this research were to better understand interactions between areas of intense convection and their surrounding mesoscale environments by using diagnostic budgets of kinetic (KE) and available potential energy (APE). Three cases of intense convection were examined in detail. 1) Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE) carried out on 24 to 25 April 1975 were studied. Synoptic scale data at 3 to 6 hour intervals, contained two mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs). Analyses included total KE budgets and budgets of divergent and rotational components of KE. 2) AVE-Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiments (SESAME)-4 carried out on 10 to 11 April 1979 were studied. Synotpic and meso alpha-scale data (250 km spacing, 3 hour intervals), contained the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. Analyses included total KE budgets (separate synoptic and mesoscale version), budgets for the divergent and rotational components, and the generation of APE by diabatic processes. 3) AVE-SESAME 5 studies were carried out on 20 to 31 May 1979. Synoptic and meso beta-scale data (75 km spacing, 1 1/2 to 3 hour intervals), contained a small MCC. Analyses include separate KE budgets for the synotic and meso beta-scales and a water vapor budget. Major findings of these investigations are: (1) The synoptic scale storm environment contains energy conversions and transports that are comparable to those of mature midlatitude cyclones. (2) Energetic in the mesoscale storm environment are often an order of magnitude larger than those in an undisturbed region. (3) Mesoscale wind maxima form in the upper troposphere on the poleward sides of convective areas, whereas speeds decrease south of storm regions.

Nested mesoscale-to-LES modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer in the presence of under-resolved convective structures

DOE PAGES

Mazzaro, Laura J.; Munoz-Esparza, Domingo; Lundquist, Julie K.; ...

2017-07-06

Multiscale atmospheric simulations can be computationally prohibitive, as they require large domains and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. Grid-nesting can alleviate this by bridging mesoscales and microscales, but one turbulence scheme must run at resolutions within a range of scales known as the terra incognita (TI). TI grid-cell sizes can violate both mesoscale and microscale subgrid-scale parametrization assumptions, resulting in unrealistic flow structures. Herein we assess the impact of unrealistic lateral boundary conditions from parent mesoscale simulations at TI resolutions on nested large eddy simulations (LES), to determine whether parent domains bias the nested LES. We present a series of idealized nestedmore » mesoscale-to-LES runs of a dry convective boundary layer (CBL) with different parent resolutions in the TI. We compare the nested LES with a stand-alone LES with periodic boundary conditions. The nested LES domains develop ~20% smaller convective structures, while potential temperature profiles are nearly identical for both the mesoscales and LES simulations. The horizontal wind speed and surface wind shear in the nested simulations closely resemble the reference LES. Heat fluxes are overestimated by up to ~0.01 K m s –1 in the top half of the PBL for all nested simulations. Overestimates of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and Reynolds stress in the nested domains are proportional to the parent domain's grid-cell size, and are almost eliminated for the simulation with the finest parent grid-cell size. Furthermore, based on these results, we recommend that LES of the CBL be forced by mesoscale simulations with the finest practical resolution.« less

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

The influence of mesoscale porosity on cortical bone anisotropy. Investigations via asymptotic homogenization

PubMed Central

Parnell, William J; Grimal, Quentin

2008-01-01

Recently, the mesoscale of cortical bone has been given particular attention in association with novel experimental techniques such as nanoindentation, micro-computed X-ray tomography and quantitative scanning acoustic microscopy (SAM). A need has emerged for reliable mathematical models to interpret the related microscopic and mesoscopic data in terms of effective elastic properties. In this work, a new model of cortical bone elasticity is developed and used to assess the influence of mesoscale porosity on the induced anisotropy of the material. Only the largest pores (Haversian canals and resorption cavities), characteristic of the mesoscale, are considered. The input parameters of the model are derived from typical mesoscale experimental data (e.g. SAM data). We use the method of asymptotic homogenization to determine the local effective elastic properties by modelling the propagation of low-frequency elastic waves through an idealized material that models the local mesostructure. We use a novel solution of the cell problem developed by Parnell & Abrahams. This solution is stable for the physiological range of variation of mesoscopic porosity and elasticity found in bone. Results are computed efficiently (in seconds) and the solutions can be implemented easily by other workers. Parametric studies are performed in order to assess the influence of mesoscopic porosity, the assumptions regarding the material inside the mesoscale pores (drained or undrained bone) and the shape of pores. Results are shown to be in good qualitative agreement with existing schemes and we describe the potential of the scheme for future use in modelling more complex microstructures for cortical bone. In particular, the scheme is shown to be a useful tool with which to predict the qualitative changes in anisotropy due to variations in the structure at the mesoscale. PMID:18628200

Impact of submesoscales on surface material distribution in a gulf of Mexico mesoscale eddy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haza, A. C.; Özgökmen, T. M.; Hogan, P.

2016-11-01

Understanding material distribution at the ocean's surface is important for a number of applications, in particular for buoyant pollutants such as oil spills. The main tools to estimate surface flows are satellite altimeters, as well as data-assimilative ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Current-generation altimeter products rely on the geostrophic approximation to derive surface currents. Recent modeling and experimental work revealed existence of ageostrophic submesoscale motions within the upper ocean boundary layer. The next frontier is how submesoscales influence transport pathways in the upper ocean, which is a multi-scale problem involving the interaction of submesoscale and mesoscale coherent structures. Here we focus on a mesoscale eddy that exhibits submesoscale fluctuations along its rim. The high-resolution OCGM fields are then treated with two filters. A Lanczos filter is applied to velocity fields to remove the kinetic energy over the submesoscales. Then a Gaussian filter is used for the modeled sea surface height to simulate a geostrophic velocity field that would be available from gridded satellite altimeter data. Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) are then generated from full-resolution and filtered fields to compare Lagrangian characteristics corresponding to different realizations of the surface velocity fields. It is found that while mesoscale currents exert a general control over the pathways of the tracer initially launched in the mesoscale eddy, there is a leak across the mesoscale transport barriers, induced by submesoscale motions. This leak is quantified as 20% of the tracer when using the submesoscale filter over one month of advection, while it increases to 50% using the geostrophic velocity field. We conclude that LCS computed from mesoscale surface velocity fields can be considered as a good first-order proxy, but the leakage of material across them in the presence of submesoscales can be significant.

Nested mesoscale-to-LES modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer in the presence of under-resolved convective structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazzaro, Laura J.; Munoz-Esparza, Domingo; Lundquist, Julie K.

Multiscale atmospheric simulations can be computationally prohibitive, as they require large domains and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. Grid-nesting can alleviate this by bridging mesoscales and microscales, but one turbulence scheme must run at resolutions within a range of scales known as the terra incognita (TI). TI grid-cell sizes can violate both mesoscale and microscale subgrid-scale parametrization assumptions, resulting in unrealistic flow structures. Herein we assess the impact of unrealistic lateral boundary conditions from parent mesoscale simulations at TI resolutions on nested large eddy simulations (LES), to determine whether parent domains bias the nested LES. We present a series of idealized nestedmore » mesoscale-to-LES runs of a dry convective boundary layer (CBL) with different parent resolutions in the TI. We compare the nested LES with a stand-alone LES with periodic boundary conditions. The nested LES domains develop ~20% smaller convective structures, while potential temperature profiles are nearly identical for both the mesoscales and LES simulations. The horizontal wind speed and surface wind shear in the nested simulations closely resemble the reference LES. Heat fluxes are overestimated by up to ~0.01 K m s –1 in the top half of the PBL for all nested simulations. Overestimates of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and Reynolds stress in the nested domains are proportional to the parent domain's grid-cell size, and are almost eliminated for the simulation with the finest parent grid-cell size. Furthermore, based on these results, we recommend that LES of the CBL be forced by mesoscale simulations with the finest practical resolution.« less

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidale, P.L.; Pielke, R.A.; Steyaert, L.T.; Barr, A.

1997-01-01

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

A Parameterization for the Triggering of Landscape Generated Moist Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynn, Barry H.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Abramopoulos, Frank

1998-01-01

A set of relatively high resolution three-dimensional (3D) simulations were produced to investigate the triggering of moist convection by landscape generated mesoscale circulations. The local accumulated rainfall varied monotonically (linearly) with the size of individual landscape patches, demonstrating the need to develop a trigger function that is sensitive to the size of individual patches. A new triggering function that includes the effect of landscapes generated mesoscale circulations over patches of different sizes consists of a parcel's perturbation in vertical velocity (nu(sub 0)), temperature (theta(sub 0)), and moisture (q(sub 0)). Each variable in the triggering function was also sensitive to soil moisture gradients, atmospheric initial conditions, and moist processes. The parcel's vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture perturbation were partitioned into mesoscale and turbulent components. Budget equations were derived for theta(sub 0) and q(sub 0). Of the many terms in this set of budget equations, the turbulent, vertical flux of the mesoscale temperature and moisture contributed most to the triggering of moist convection through the impact of these fluxes on the parcel's temperature and moisture profile. These fluxes needed to be parameterized to obtain theta(sub 0) and q(sub 0). The mesoscale vertical velocity also affected the profile of nu(sub 0). We used similarity theory to parameterize these fluxes as well as the parcel's mesoscale vertical velocity.

Three-dimensional Mesoscale Simulations of Detonation Initiation in Energetic Materials with Density-based Kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Thomas; Jost, A. M.; Zhang, Ju; Sridharan, P.; Amadio, G.

2017-06-01

In this work we present three-dimensional mesoscale simulations of detonation initiation in energetic materials. We solve the reactive Euler equations, with the energy equation augmented by a power deposition term. The reaction rate at the mesoscale is modelled using a density-based kinetics scheme, adapted from standard Ignition and Growth models. The deposition term is based on previous results of simulations of pore collapse at the microscale, modelled at the mesoscale as hot-spots. We carry out three-dimensional mesoscale simulations of random packs of HMX crystals in a binder, and show that the transition between no-detonation and detonation depends on the number density of the hot-spots, the initial radius of the hot-spot, the post-shock pressure of an imposed shock, and the amplitude of the power deposition term. The trends of transition at lower pressure of the imposed shock for larger number density of pore observed in experiments is reproduced. Initial attempts to improve the agreement between the simulation and experiments through calibration of various parameters will also be made.

Low-level wind response to mesoscale pressure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Physick, W. L.

1983-09-01

Observations are presented which show a strong correlation between low-level wind behaviour (e.g., rotation near the surface) and the passage of mesoscale pressure systems. The latter are associated with frontal transition zones, are dominated by a pressure-jump line and a mesoscale high pressure area, and produce locally large horizontal pressure gradients. The wind observations are simulated by specifying a time sequence of perturbation pressure gradient and subsequently solving the vertically-integrated momentum equations with appropriate initial conditions. Very good agreement is found between observed and calculated winds; in particular, (i) a 360 ° rotation in wind on passage of the mesoscale high; (ii) wind-shift lines produced dynamically by the pressure-jump line; (iii) rapid linear increase in wind speed on passage of the pressure jump.

Results from a limited area mesoscale numerical simulation for 10 April 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.

1985-01-01

Results are presented from a nine-hour limited area fine mesh (35-km) mesoscale model simulation initialized with SESAME-AVE I radiosonde data for Apr. 10, 1979 at 2100 GMT. Emphasis is on the diagnosis of mesoscale structure in the mass and precipitation fields. Along the Texas/Oklahoma border, independent of the short wave, convective precipitation formed several hours into the simulation and was organized into a narrow band suggestive of the observed April 10 squall line.

Numerical simulation of cloud and precipitation structure during GALE IOP-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Perkey, D. J.; Seablom, M. S.

1988-01-01

A regional scale model, LAMPS (Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System), is used to investigate cloud and precipitation structure that accompanied a short wave system during a portion of GALE IOP-2. A comparison of satellite imagery and model fields indicates that much of the large mesoscale organization of condensation has been captured by the simulation. In addition to reproducing a realistic phasing of two baroclinic zones associated with a split cold front, a reasonable simulation of the gross mesoscale cloud distribution has been achieved.

Electric and kinematic structure of the Oklahoma mesoscale convective system of 7 June 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Steven M.; Schur, Terry J.; Marshall, Thomas C.; Rust, W. D.

1992-01-01

Balloon soundings of electric field in Oklahoma mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were obtained by the National Severe Storms Laboratory in the spring of 1989. This study focuses on a sounding made in the rearward edge of an MCS stratiform rain area on 7 June 1989. Data from Doppler radars, a lightning ground-strike location system, satellite, and other sources is used to relate the mesoscale attributes of the MCS to the observed electric-field profile.

Chemical and isotopic fingerprinting of small ungauged watershed: How far the hydrological functioning can be understood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petelet-Giraud, Emmanuelle; Luck, Jean-Marc; Ben Othman, Dalila; Joseph, Christian; Négrel, Philippe

2016-05-01

This study presents the ability of major/trace elements together with strontium isotopes to trace water origins at small scale at the outlet of a small watershed (Peyne, Hérault, France). Two small sub-basins draining distinct lithologies in their headwater (Plio-Villafranchian conglomerate versus Triassic gypsum-rich marls and dolomites) and the Miocene formations downstream are investigated. The Ca/Na vs. Mg/Na ratios and Ca/Sr vs. 87Sr/86Sr ratios allow the different facies that imprint the water signature to be identified, according to the hydrological conditions (low/high flows). Moreover, Sr isotopes evidence the two distinct Miocene facies, the sandy marls and the marine carbonates. The variation of the signature at the outlet of the basin allows identifying the main contributing compartments according to the hydrological conditions. This approach, based on a limited number of samples, highlights the potential of geochemical and isotopic tracers to define the contributing compartments to the runoff at the outlet of a basin. It thus could be considered as a potential alternative way to classical hydrological monitoring to delineate the main contributing areas during floods, especially in small ungauged river basins, where most of the devastating flash floods are recorded.

Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; M. A. Sattar, Ahmed; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2017-02-01

This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

2015-05-01

Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lessons learned for applying a paired-catchment approach in drought analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Rangecroft, Sally; Coxon, Gemma; Agustín Breña Naranjo, José; Van Ogtrop, Floris; Croghan, Danny; Van Lanen, Henny

2017-04-01

Ongoing research is looking to quantify the human impact on hydrological drought using observed data. One potentially suitable method is the paired-catchment approach. Paired catchments have been successfully used for quantifying the impact of human actions (e.g. forest treatment and wildfires) on various components of a catchment's water balance. However, it is unclear whether this method could successfully be applied to drought. In this study, we used a paired-catchment approach to quantify the effects of reservoirs, groundwater abstraction and urbanisation on hydrological drought in the UK, Mexico, and Australia. Following recommendations in literature, we undertook a thorough catchment selection and identified catchments of similar size, climate, geology, and topography. One catchment of the pair was affected by either reservoirs, groundwater abstraction or urbanisation. For the selected catchment pairs, we standardised streamflow time series to catchment area, calculated a drought threshold from the natural catchment and applied it to the human-influenced catchment. The underlying assumption being that the differences in drought severity between catchments can then be attributed to the anthropogenic activity. In some catchments we had local knowledge about human influences, and therefore we could compare our paired-catchment results with hydrological model scenarios. However, we experienced that detailed data on human influences usually are not well recorded. The results showed us that it is important to account for variation in average annual precipitation between the paired catchments to be able to transfer the drought threshold of the natural catchment to the human-influenced catchment. This can be achieved by scaling the discharge by the difference in annual average precipitation. We also found that the temporal distribution of precipitation is important, because if meteorological droughts differ between the paired catchments, this may mask changes caused by human activities. This issue can generally be overcome by selecting adjacent or nearby catchments. Finally, we found that geology is much more important for paired-catchment analysis of drought than we anticipated based upon the experiences in flood research. For example, in two of the UK pairs, we could not use the results due to differences in geology overruling the human influence. We learned that in the selection of catchments for drought analysis, (hydro)geology should be considered in even more detail. Taking these aspects into account, we concluded that the paired-catchment approach works for evaluating the effects of reservoirs and groundwater abstraction on streamflow drought, but is more challenging for urbanisation. The reasons are more problems in catchment selection, lack of results, and complexity of processes making attribution more difficult. Urbanisation is not a simple land cover change influencing only infiltration and runoff, but it involves all kinds of indirect effects, such as artificial inputs (drainage, sewage return flows) that are very important during low flow periods. For this we would suggest starting in small, well-measured urban catchments, of which all artificial inputs are known. We believe that with the careful selection criteria and accounting for variations in climate and landscape, there is scope for using a paired-catchment approach in hydrological drought research.

Simulating wind energy resources with mesoscale models: Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models over Northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahmann, A. N.

2015-12-01

Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are useful because they give information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Various mesoscale models and families of mesoscale models are being used, with thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. We have carried out a blind benchmarking study to evaluate the capabilities of mesoscale models used in wind energy to estimate site wind conditions: to highlight common issues on mesoscale modeling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and to identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. Three experimental sites with tall mast measurements were selected: FINO3 (offshore), Høvsøre (coastal), and Cabauw (land-based). The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed and direction, temperature, etc., at various heights for 2011. The methods used were left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a detailed description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. The analysis of the time series includes comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, and the temporal spectra. The statistics were grouped by the models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, various integration methods, etc. The results show high fidelity of the various entries in simulating the wind climate at the offshore and coastal site. Over land and the statistics of other derived fields (e.g. wind shear distributions) show much less similarities among the models and with the observations. Cloud computing now allows the use of mesoscale models by non-experts for site assessment. This tool is very useful and powerful, but users must be aware of the different issues that might be encountered in working with different setups.

Examining the effects of forest thinning on runoff responses at different catchments scales in forested headwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung, B. X.; Gomi, T.; Onda, Y.; Kato, H.; Hiraoka, M.

2012-12-01

We conducted field observation in nested headwater catchments draining Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) and cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) forests at Tochigi prefectures for examining the effects of forest thinning on runoff generation at different catchment scales. 50% of the stems was removed with line thinning in catchment K2 (treatment catchment), while catchment K3 remained untreated as a control. We also monitored nested catchments within K2-1 (17.1 ha) as K2-2 (10.2 ha), K2-3 (3.7 ha) and K2-4 (5.1 ha), and within K3-1 (8.9 ha) as K3-2 (3.0 ha). Runoff from the catchments was monitored during the pre-thinning (from April, 2010 to May 2011), and the post-thinning periods (from June 2011 to July 2012). Paired-catchment and hydrograph separation analysis were used to evaluate the effects of forest thinning on runoff generation at different catchment scales. We developed the pre-thinning calibration equation for predicting post-thinning responses. Paired-catchment analysis revealed that annual catchment runoff increased 648 mm in K2-1, 414 mm in K2-2, 517 mm in K2-3 and 487 mm in K2-4 after the thinning. Both quick and delayed runoff components only increased significantly in the larger catchments of K2-1 and K2-2, while only delayed runoff components of smaller catchments (K2-3 and K2-4) increased significantly during the post-thinning period. Increases of quick runoff in large catchments could be associated with quick runoff response to soil surface compaction by line thinning and skid trail installation. Increases of delayed runoff in small catchment may be associated with increase in net precipitation and decrease in evapotranspiration. Our finding showed that changes in internal hydrological flow pathways and associated changes in runoff components due to forest harvesting differ depending on the catchment sizes.

Determining spatially discretized surface flow and baseflow in the context of climate change and water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimonet, M.; Oudin, L.; Rabouille, C.; Garnier, J.; Silvestre, M.; Vautard, R.; Thieu, V.

2016-12-01

Water quality management of fresh and marine aquatic systems requires modelling tools along the land-ocean continuum in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on nutrient transfer and on potential ecosystem dysfonctioning (e.g. eutrophication, anoxia). In addition to direct effects of climate change on water temperature, it is essential to consider indirect effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrology since nutrient transfers are particularly sensitive to the partition of streamflow between surface flow and baseflow. Yet, the determination of surface flow and baseflow, their spatial repartition on drainage basins, and their relative potential evolution under climate change remains challenging. In this study, we developed a generic approach to determine 10-day surface flow and baseflow using a regionalized hydrological model applied at a high spatial resolution (unitary catchments of area circa 10km²). Streamflow data at gauged basins were used to calibrate hydrological model parameters that were then applied on neighbor ungauged basins to estimate streamflow at the scale of the French territory. The proposed methodology allowed representing spatialized surface flow and baseflow that are consistent with climatic and geomorphological settings. The methodology was then used to determine the effect of climate change on the spatial repartition of surface flow and baseflow on the Seine drainage bassin. Results showed large discrepancies of both the amount and the spatial repartition of changes of surface flow and baseflow according to the several GCM and RCM used to derive projected climatic forcing. Consequently, it is expected that the impact of climate change on nutrient transfer might also be quite heterogeneous for the Seine River. This methodology could be applied in any drainage basin where at least several gauged hydrometric stations are available. The estimated surface flow and baseflow can then be used in hydro-ecological models in order to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of climate change on nutrient transfers and potential ecosystem dysfunctioning along the land-ocean continuum.

Understanding key drivers controlling daily stable isotope variations in precipitation of Costa Rica, Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Murillo, Ricardo; Welsh, Kristin; Birkel, Christian; Esquivel-Hernández, Germain; Corrales-Salazar, Jose; Boll, Jan; Brooks, Erin; Roupsard, Olivier; Katchan, Irina; Arce-Mesén, Rafael; Soulsby, Chris; Araguás-Araguás, Luis

2015-04-01

Costa Rica is located on the Central American Isthmus, which receives direct moisture inputs from the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. The relatively narrow, but high relief Central American land bridge is characterized by unique mountainous and lowland microclimates. However, only limited knowledge exists about the impact of relief and regional atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation origin, transport, and isotopic composition in this tropical region. Therefore, the main scope of this study is to identify the key drivers controlling variations in meteoric waters of Costa Rica using stable isotopes based on daily sample collection for the year 2013. The monitoring sites comprise three strategic locations across Costa Rica: Heredia (Central Valley), Turrialba (Caribbean slope), and Caño Seco (South Pacific slope). Sporadic dry season rain is mostly related to isolated enriched events ranging from -5.8‰ d18O up to -0.9‰ d18O. By mid-May, the Intertropical Convergence Zone reaches Costa Rica resulting in a notable depletion in isotope ratios (up to -18.5‰ d18O). HYSPLIT back air mass trajectories indicate the strong influence on the origin and transport of precipitation of two main moisture transport mechanisms, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the Colombian Low Level Jet as well as localized convection events. Multiple linear regression models constructed based on Random Forests of surface meteorological information and atmospheric sounding profiles suggest that Lifted Condensation Level and surface relative humidity are the main factors controlling isotopic variations. These findings diverge from the recognized 'amount effect' in monthly composite samples across the tropics. Understanding of stable isotope dynamics in tropical precipitation can be used to enhance catchment and groundwater modeling efforts in ungauged basins where scarcity of long-term monitoring data drastically limit current and future water resources management.

New ArcGIS tools developed for stream network extraction and basin delineations using Python and java script

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omran, Adel; Dietrich, Schröder; Abouelmagd, Abdou; Michael, Märker

2016-09-01

Damages caused by flash floods hazards are an increasing phenomenon, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Thus, the need to evaluate these areas based on their flash flood risk using maps and hydrological models is also becoming more important. For ungauged watersheds a tentative analysis can be carried out based on the geomorphometric characteristics of the terrain. To process regions with larger watersheds, where perhaps hundreds of watersheds have to be delineated, processed and classified, the overall process need to be automated. GIS packages such as ESRI's ArcGIS offer a number of sophisticated tools that help regarding such analysis. Yet there are still gaps and pitfalls that need to be considered if the tools are combined into a geoprocessing model to automate the complete assessment workflow. These gaps include issues such as i) assigning stream order according to Strahler theory, ii) calculating the threshold value for the stream network extraction, and iii) determining the pour points for each of the nodes of the Strahler ordered stream network. In this study a complete automated workflow based on ArcGIS Model Builder using standard tools will be introduced and discussed. Some additional tools have been implemented to complete the overall workflow. These tools have been programmed using Python and Java in the context of ArcObjects. The workflow has been applied to digital data from the southwestern Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. An optimum threshold value has been selected to optimize drainage configuration by statistically comparing all of the extracted stream configuration results from DEM with the available reference data from topographic maps. The code has succeeded in estimating the correct ranking of specific stream orders in an automatic manner without additional manual steps. As a result, the code has proven to save time and efforts; hence it's considered a very useful tool for processing large catchment basins.

Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

2017-12-01

Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

2014-05-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

ALASKAN RTMA GRAPHICS

Science.gov Websites

Alaskan RTMA Graphics This page displays Alaskan Real-Time Mesoscale Analyses and compares them to DISCLAIMER: The Alaskan Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis tool is in its developmental stage, and there is much

Suspended sediment load below open-cast mines for ungauged river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuksina, L.

2011-12-01

Placer mines are located in river valleys along river benches or river ancient channels. Frequently the existing mining sites are characterized by low contribution of the environmental technologies. Therefore open-pit mining alters stream hydrology and sediment processes and enhances sediment transport. The most serious environmental consequences of the sediment yield increase occur in the rivers populated by salmon fish community because salmon species prefer clean water with low turbidity. For instance, placer mining located in Kamchatka peninsula (Far East of Russia) which is regarded to be the last global gene pool of wild salmon Oncorhynchus threatens rivers ecosystems significantly. Impact assessment is limited by the hydrological observations scarcity. Gauging network is rare and in many cases whole basins up to 200 km length miss any hydrological data. The main purpose of the work is elaboration of methods for sediment yield estimation in rivers under mining impact and implementation of corresponding calculations. Subjects of the study are rivers of the Vivenka river basin where open-cast platinum mine is situated. It's one of the largest platinum mines in Russian Federation and in the world. This mine is the most well-studied in Kamchatka (research covers a period from 2003 to 2011). Empirical - analytical model of suspended sediment yield estimation was elaborated for rivers draining mine's territories. Sediment delivery at the open-cast mine happens due to the following sediment processes: - erosion in the channel diversions; - soil erosion on the exposed hillsides; - effluent from settling ponds; - mine waste water inflow; - accident mine waste water escape into rivers. Sediment washout caused by erosion was estimated by repeated measurements of the channel profiles in 2003, 2006 and 2008. Estimation of horizontal deformation rates was carried out on the basis of erosion dependence on water discharge rates, slopes and composition of sediments. Soil erosion on the exposed hillsides was estimated taking into account precipitation of various intensity and solid material washout during this period. Effluent from settling ponds was calculated on the basis of minimum anthropogenic turbidity. Its value is difference in background turbidity and minimal turbidity caused by effluent and waste water overflow. Mine waste water inflow was estimated due to actual data on water balance of purification system. Accident mine waste water escape into rivers was estimated by duration and material washout during accidents data measured during observation period. Total suspended sediment yield of rivers draining mine's territory is the sum of its components. Total sediment supply from mining site is 24.7 % from the Vivenka sediment yield. Polluted placer-mined rivers contribute about 35.4 % of the whole sediment yield of the Vivenka river. At the same time the catchment area of these rivers is less than 0.2 % from the whole Vivenka catchment area.

Quantifying the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment storage-discharge dynamics using paired-catchment data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Lu; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Canadell, Josep G.; Zhao, Fangfang; Wang, Ying-Ping; Hu, Xianqun; Lin, Kairong

2017-07-01

It is widely recognized that vegetation changes can significantly affect the local water availability. Methods have been developed to predict the effects of vegetation change on water yield or total streamflow. However, it is still a challenge to predict changes in base flow following vegetation change due to limited understanding of catchment storage-discharge dynamics. In this study, the power law relationship for describing catchment storage-discharge dynamics is reformulated to quantify the changes in storage-discharge relationship resulting from vegetation changes using streamflow data from six paired-catchment experiments, of which two are deforestation catchments and four are afforestation catchments. Streamflow observations from the paired-catchment experiments clearly demonstrate that vegetation changes have led to significant changes in catchment storage-discharge relationships, accounting for about 83-128% of the changes in groundwater discharge in the treated catchments. Deforestation has led to increases in groundwater discharge (or base flow) but afforestation has resulted in decreases in groundwater discharge. Further analysis shows that the contribution of changes in groundwater discharge to the total changes in streamflow varies greatly among experimental catchments ranging from 12% to 80% with a mean of 38 ± 22% (μ ± σ). This study proposed a new method to quantify the effects of vegetation changes on groundwater discharge from catchment storage and will improve our predictability about the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment water yields.

Molecular Origins of Mesoscale Ordering in a Metalloamphiphile Phase

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Controlling the assembly of soft and deformable molecular aggregates into mesoscale structures is essential for understanding and developing a broad range of processes including rare earth extraction and cleaning of water, as well as for developing materials with unique properties. By combined synchrotron small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering with large-scale atomistic molecular dynamics simulations we analyze here a metalloamphiphile–oil solution that organizes on multiple length scales. The molecules associate into aggregates, and aggregates flocculate into meso-ordered phases. Our study demonstrates that dipolar interactions, centered on the amphiphile headgroup, bridge ionic aggregate cores and drive aggregate flocculation. By identifying specific intermolecular interactions that drive mesoscale ordering in solution, we bridge two different length scales that are classically addressed separately. Our results highlight the importance of individual intermolecular interactions in driving mesoscale ordering. PMID:27163014

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. I - Evolution of the storm-initiating mesoscale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; George, R. L.; Knupp, K. R.

1982-01-01

The evolution of mesoscale systems that eventually lead to the formation of large quasi-steady storm systems is investigated. The morphological and turbulent structure of the quasi-steady storm is described. Data obtained during the South Park Area Cumulus Experiment from surface meteorological stations, rawinsondes and tethered balloons, conventional and Doppler radars, powered aircraft, and satellites, indicate that on July 19, 1977, a north-south oriented line of intense convective cells formed and remained within South Park. Elevated surface heating created a region of low-level convergence, importing Pacific moisture from west of the Rockies. The mesoscale thunderstorm line formed over this convergence zone, and a single large convective cell was observed to grow on the southern end of the mesoscale line, exhibiting supercell characteristics and substantial modifications of the environmental flow.

Mesoscale resolution capability of altimetry: Present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufau, Claire; Orsztynowicz, Marion; Dibarboure, Gérald; Morrow, Rosemary; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2016-07-01

Wavenumber spectra of along-track Sea Surface Height from the most recent satellite radar altimetry missions [Jason-2, Cryosat-2, and SARAL/Altika) are used to determine the size of ocean dynamical features observable with the present altimetry constellation. A global analysis of the along-track 1-D mesoscale resolution capability of the present-day altimeter missions is proposed, based on a joint analysis of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band and the error levels observed for horizontal wavelengths lower than 20km. The global sea level spectral slope distribution provided by Xu and Fu with Jason-1 data is revisited with more recent altimeter missions, and maps of altimeter error levels are provided and discussed for each mission. Seasonal variations of both spectral slopes and altimeter error levels are also analyzed for Jason-2. SARAL/Altika, with its lower error levels, is shown to detect smaller structures everywhere. All missions show substantial geographical and temporal variations in their mesoscale resolution capabilities, with variations depending mostly on the error level change but also on slight regional changes in the spectral slopes. In western boundary currents where the signal to noise ratio is favorable, the along-track mesoscale resolution is approximately 40 km for SARAL/AltiKa, 45 km for Cryosat-2, and 50 km for Jason-2. Finally, a prediction of the future 2-D mesoscale sea level resolution capability of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is given using a simulated error level.

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrasahan, D. A.; Kamenkovich, I.; Le Hénaff, M.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-06-01

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of 350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone.

Driving of Dramatic Geomagnetic Activity by Enhancement of Meso-Scale Polar-cap Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, L. R.; Gallardo-Lacourt, B.; Zou, Y.; Nishimura, Y.; Anderson, P. C.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Mitchell, E. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Nishitani, N.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown that mesoscale flows are common within the polar cap ionosphere. They often cross the magnetic separatrix, and become are critical to the driving of geomagnetic activity. They lead, for example, to plasma sheet flow bursts, auroral poleward boundary intensifications, auroral streamers, substorms, auroral omega bands, and poleward motion of the polar cap boundary from reconnection. We have found large enhancements of these meso-scale ionospheric polar cap flows heading towards the nightside separatrix. These enhancements are common immediately after the impact of CME shocks under southward IMF, but can also occur in other situations, including without substantial change in the solar wind or IMF. These meso-scale flow enhancements, which must extent outward along magnetospheric field lines from the ionosphere, are seen to drive an almost immediate strong auroral, ionospheric and field-aligned current, and reconnection activity. The resulting activity is particularly dramatic during the initiation of CME storms, but may reflect a more generally occurring phenomenon of mesoscale flow enhancements leading to similar oval responses without a shock impact, including during and following the expansion phase some substorms. If this phenomenon is indeed common, it could lead to possibly fundamental questions, such as when do polar cap convection enhancements lead to a substorm growth phase versus leading directly to strong poleward expansion of, and strong activity within, the auroral oval field line region? Another critical question would be what leads to and causes the enhancements in meso-scale polar cap flows?

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

2017-09-01

There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across multiple catchments and larger spatial scales.

Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkin, G.; O'Donnell, G.; Ewen, J.; Bathurst, J. C.; O'Connell, P. E.; Lavabre, J.

1996-02-01

Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol., 175: 583-594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making 'blind' predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging.

Catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs: using residence time distribution to compare contrasting catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Ben; Marcais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Le Henaff, Geneviève; Squividant, Hervé; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald

2017-04-01

The distribution of groundwater residence time in a catchment provides synoptic information about catchment functioning (e.g. nutrient retention and removal, hydrograph flashiness). In contrast with interpreted model results, which are often not directly comparable between studies, residence time distribution is a general output that could be used to compare catchment behaviors and test hypotheses about landscape controls on catchment functioning. In this goal, we created a virtual observatory platform called Catchment Virtual Observatory for Sharing Flow and Transport Model Outputs (COnSOrT). The main goal of COnSOrT is to collect outputs from calibrated groundwater models from a wide range of environments. By comparing a wide variety of catchments from different climatic, topographic and hydrogeological contexts, we expect to enhance understanding of catchment connectivity, resilience to anthropogenic disturbance, and overall functioning. The web-based observatory will also provide software tools to analyze model outputs. The observatory will enable modelers to test their models in a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings and robustness of their post-processing methods. Researchers with calibrated numerical models can benefit from observatory by using the post-processing methods to implement a new approach to analyzing their data. Field scientists interested in contributing data could invite modelers associated with the observatory to test their models against observed catchment behavior. COnSOrT will allow meta-analyses with community contributions to generate new understanding and identify promising pathways forward to moving beyond single catchment ecohydrology. Keywords: Residence time distribution, Models outputs, Catchment hydrology, Inter-catchment comparison

[Comparison of nitrogen loss via surface runoff from two agricultural catchments in semi-arid North China].

PubMed

Lu, Hai-Ming; Yin, Cheng-Qing; Wang, Xia-Hui; Zou, Ying

2008-10-01

Nitrogen loss characteristics via surface runoff from two typical agricultural catchments into Yuqiao Reservoir--the important drinking water source area for Tianjin city in semi-arid North China were investigated through two-year in-situ monitoring and indoor chemical analysis. The results showed that annual nitrogen export mainly concentrated in the rainy period between June to September. About 41% of the annual water output and 52% of the annual total nitrogen output took place in two rainfall events with rainfall> 60 mm in Taohuasi catchment (T catchment), while the distribution of water and nitrogen export among various rainfalls in Caogezhuang catchment (C catchment) was smooth. The rainfall thresholds for the appearance of water and nitrogen export from the outlet of T catchment and C catchment were 20 mm and 10 mm. The mean annual runoff coefficients of C and T catchments were 0.013 2 and 0.001 6, respectively. The mean annual total nitrogen exports from C catchment and T catchment were 1.048 kg x (hm2 x a)(-1) and 0.158 kg x (hm2 x a)(-1) respectively. The difference of micro-topography, landscape pattern and hydrological pathway between two catchments could explain the nitrogen export gap. Micro-topographical features created by long-term anthropological disturbance decrease the runoff generation ability. The distance between nitrogen source area and the outlet in T catchment was around 1 500 m, while such distance in C catchment was just around 200 m. The short distance added the nitrogen export risk via surface runoff. Road-type hydrological pathway in C catchment could transfer nitrogen into the receiving water via surface runoff directly, while nitrogen could be detained within the pathway by many sink structures such as small stones, vegetated buffer strip and dry ponds in T catchment.

The Modulation of Biological Production by Oceanic Mesoscale Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lévy, Marina

This chapter reviews the current state of knowledge on bio-physical interactions at mesoscale and at sub-mesoscale. It is focused on the mid-latitudes open ocean. From examples taken from my own studies or selected in the literature, I show how high-resolution process-oriented model studies have helped to improve our understanding. I follow a process oriented approach; I first discuss the role of mesoscale eddies in moderating the nutrient flux into the well-lit euphotic zone. Then I address the impact on biogeochemistry of transport occurring on a horizontal scale smaller than the scale of an eddy. I show that submesoscale processes modulate biogeochemical budgets in a number of ways, through intense upwelling of nutrients, subduction of phytoplankton, and horizontal stirring. Finally, I emphasize that mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics have a strong impact on productivity through their influence on the stratification of the surface of the ocean. These processes have in common that they concern the short-term, local effect of oceanic turbulence on biogeochemistry. Efforts are still needed before we can get a complete picture, which would also include the far-field long-term effect of the eddies.

Density-based kinetics for mesoscale simulations of detonation initiation in energetic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Thomas Luther; Zhang, Ju

2017-07-01

In this work we present one- and two-dimensional mesoscale simulations of detonation initiation in energetic materials. We solve the reactive Euler equations, with the energy equation augmented by a power deposition term. The reaction rate at the mesoscale is modelled using a density-based kinetics scheme, adapted from standard 'Ignition and Growth' models. The deposition term is based on previous results of simulations of void collapse at the microscale, modelled at the mesoscale as hot spots. For an isolated hot spot in a homogeneous medium, it is found that a critical size of the hot spots exists. If the hot spots exceed the critical size, initiation of detonation can be achieved. For sub-critical hot-spot sizes, we show that it takes a collection of hot spots to achieve detonation. We also carry out two-dimensional mesoscale simulations of random packs of HMX crystals in a binder, and show that the transition between no detonation and detonation depends on the number density of the hot spots, the initial radius of the hot spot, the post-shock pressure of an imposed shock, and the amplitude of the power deposition term.

Shock-induced mechanochemistry in heterogeneous reactive powder mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Manny; Gurumurthy, Ashok; Kennedy, Gregory; Neel, Christopher; Gokhale, Arun; Thadhani, Naresh

The bulk response of compacted powder mixtures subjected to high-strain-rate loading conditions in various configurations is manifested from behavior at the meso-scale. Simulations at the meso-scale can provide an additional confirmation of the possible origins of the observed response. This work investigates the bulk dynamic response of Ti +B +Al reactive powder mixtures under two extreme loading configurations - uniaxial stress and strain loading - leveraging highly-resolved in-situ measurements and meso-scale simulations. Modified rod-on-anvil impact tests on a reactive pellet demonstrate an optimized stoichiometry promoting reaction in Ti +B +Al. Encapsulated powders subjected to shock compression via flyer plate tests provide possible evidence of a shock-induced reaction at high pressures. Meso-scale simulations of the direct experimental configurations employing highly-resolved microstructural features of the Ti +B compacted mixture show complex inhomogeneous deformation responses and reveal the importance of meso-scale features such as particle size and morphology and their effects on the measured response. Funding is generously provided by DTRA through Grant No. HDTRA1-10-1-0038 (Dr. Su Peiris - Program Manager) and by the SMART (AFRL Wright Patterson AFB) and NDSEG fellowships (High Performance Computing and Modernization Office).

A new perspective on catchment storage gained from a nested catchment experiment in Luxembourg (Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; Hissler, Christophe; François Iffly, Jean; Gourdol, Laurent; Martinez-Carreras, Nuria; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2014-05-01

Recent hydrological process research focussed on how much water a catchment can store and how these catchments store and release water. Storage can be a valuable metric for catchment description, inter-comparison, and classification. Further storage controls catchment mixing, non-linearities in rainfall-runoff transformation and eco-hydrological processes. Various methods exist to determine catchment storage (e.g. natural tracer, soil moisture and groundwater data, hydrological models). Today it remains unclear what parts of the catchment storage are measured with the different models. Here we present a new hydrometric approach to answer the question how much water a catchment can store. We tested our approach in a dense hydro-climatological monitoring network that encompasses 16 recording streamgauges and 21 pluviographs in the Alzette River basin in Luxembourg (Europe). Catchment scales are ranging from 0.47 to 285 km2 and they have clean- and mixed combinations of distinct geologies ranging from schists to marls, sandstone, dolomite and limestone. Previous investigations in the area of interest have shown that geology largely controls winter runoff coefficients. Here, we focus at how catchment geology is ultimately affecting catchment storage. We used the approach of Sayama et al. (2011) to compute catchment dynamic storage changes for each winter season over the period 2002-2012 (based on precipitation as input; discharge and evapotranspiration as output). We determined dynamic storage changes for each winter semester (October to March) in all 16 catchments over the period 2002-2012. At the beginning of each hydrological winter season, all catchments showed similar trends in storage change. A few weeks into the winter season, catchments with lowest permeability (e.g. marls) started to plateau. The highest storage values were reached several months later in the season in catchments dominated by permeable substrate (e.g. sandstone). For most catchments, we found strong correlations between baseflow prior to the recharge period (i.e. at initiation of the total storage calculations) and the seasonal maximum value of the total storage change calculations. In order to determine the maximum storage potential for each catchment, we fitted a trendline through the annual 'initial baseflow - maximum storage' populations. By extrapolating these trendlines to zero flow conditions, we obtained the maximum storage potential. Our results show that these maximum storage values clearly tend to be larger in catchments dominated by permeable substrate, compared to areas underlain by impermeable bedrock. In the latter, average filling ratios were found to be substantially higher (exceeding 80%) than in catchments dominated by permeable substrate (approximately 40%). These findings were confirmed by average seasonal winter runoff coefficients that are substantially higher in catchments dominated by impermeable bedrock (Pfister et al., in prep.). Our new approach allows a fast assessment of storage potential in catchments based on discharge, precipitation and evapotranspiration data. Pfister L. et al. 2014: Catchment storage, baseflow isotope signatures and basin geology: Is there a connection? In preparation. Sayama, T., McDonnell, J.J., Dhakal, A., Sullivan, K., 2011. How much water can a watershed store ? Hydrological Processes 25, 3899-3908.

Hydro-climatic control of stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) across northern catchments within the North-Watch program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laudon, Hjalmar; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Carey, Sean; Buttle, Jim; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Caissie, Daniel; Shanley, Jamie

2010-05-01

There has been an increasing interest in understanding the regulating mechanisms of surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) the last decade. A majority of this recent work has been based on individual well characterized research catchments or on regional synoptic datasets combined with readily available landscape and climatic variables. However, as the production and transport of DOC primarily is a function of hydro-climatic conditions a better description of catchment hydrological functioning across large geographic regions would be favorable for moving the mechanistic understanding forward. To do this we report from a first assessment of catchment DOC within the international inter-catchment comparison program North-Watch (http://www.abdn.ac.uk/northwatch/). North-Watch includes long-term research catchments ranging from northern temperate regions to the boreal and sub-arctic biomes with the aim to better understand the variable hydrological and biogeochemical responses in Northern catchments to climate change. The North-Watch catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the US (Sleepers River and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). The annual average DOC concentration in the nine catchments investigated were directly linked to hydro-climatic influences (e.g. temperature, water storage) and landscape configuration. In general, the DOC concentration followed a parabolic shape with temperature, where the highest concentrations were found in the boreal and near boreal sites and with the lowest concentrations in the temperate and sub-arctic catchments. The between catchment variability in DOC concentration could also be explained by catchment water storage and amount of wetlands in the catchment. Whereas there is a mechanistic link between long-term climatic conditions and the areal coverage of wetlands, the total catchment storage of water is more strongly linked to topography, parent material and soil depth. The result from this analysis will serve as a conceptual framework for understanding biogeochemical response to environmental change across northern catchments. The next step in this work will be to include more detailed comparisons of the role catchment hydrological functioning for explaining the patterns and dynamics of catchment DOC of these northern watersheds.

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality characteristics of four urban land-use catchments in Fresno, California, October 1981 to April 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oltmann, Richard N.; Shulters, Michael V.

1989-01-01

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality were monitored for industrial, single-dwelling residential, multiple-dwelling residential, and commercial land-use catchments during the 1981-82 and 1982-83 rain seasons. Storm-composite rainfall and discrete run6ff samples were analyzed for numerous inorganic, biological, physical, and organic constituents. Atmospheric dry-deposition and street-surface particulate samples also were collected and analyzed. With the exception of the industrial catchment, the highest runoff concentrations for most constituents occurred during the initial storm runoff and then decreased throughout the remainder of the storm, independent of hydraulic conditions. Metal concentrations were high during initial runoff, but also increased as flow increased. Constituent concentrations for the industrial catchment fluctuated greatly during storms. Statistical tests showed higher ammonia plus organic nitrogen, ammonia, pH, and phenol concentrations in rainfall at the industrial site than at the single-dwelling residential and laboratory sites. Statistical testing of runoff quality data showed higher concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the two residential and commercial catchments for most constituents. Total recoverable lead was one of the few constituents that had lower concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the other three catchments. The two residential catchments showed no significant difference in runoff concentrations for 50 of the 57 constituents used in the statistical analysis. The commercial catchment runoff concentrations for most constituents generally were similar to the residential catchments. Although constituent concentrations generally were higher for the industrial catchment than for the commercial catchment, constituent storm loads from the commercial catchment were similar to the industrial catchment because of the greater runoff volume from the highly impervious commercial catchment. Between 10 and 50 percent of the constituent runoff loads for the two residential catchments were attributed to the rainfall load, with the percentages generally considerably less for the industrial catchment. Event mean concentrations (EMC) for most constituents for all but the industrial catchment were highest for the first two or three storms of the rain season after which they became almost constant. Constituent event mean concentrations for the industrial catchment generally did not show any pattern throughout a rain season. Multiple-regression predictor equations for event mean concentrations were developed for several constituents for all sites. Average annual constituent unit loads were computed for 18 constituents for each catchment. The organophosphorus compounds, diazinon, malathion, and parathion were the most prevalent pesticides detected in rainfall. Diazinon was detected in all 54 rainfall samples. Parathion and malathion were detected in 49 and 50 samples, respectively. Other pesticides detected in rainfall included chlordane, lindane, methoxychlor, endosulfan, and 2,4-D. Of these, only methoxychlor and endosulfan were not consistently detected in runoff.

The US DOE A2e Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling Project: Nonstationary Modeling Techniques and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Shaw, William

2017-04-01

The purpose of the US DOE's Mesoscale-Microscale Coupling (MMC) Project is to develop, verify, and validate physical models and modeling techniques that bridge the most important atmospheric scales that determine wind plant performance and reliability. As part of DOE's Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) program, the MMC project seeks to create a new predictive numerical simulation capability that is able to represent the full range of atmospheric flow conditions impacting wind plant performance. The recent focus of MMC has been on nonstationary conditions over flat terrain. These nonstationary cases are critical for wind energy and represent a primary need for mesoscale meteorological forcing of the microscale models. The MMC team modeled two types of non-stationary cases: 1) diurnal cycles in which the daytime convective boundary layer collapses with the setting of the sun when the surface heat flux changes from positive to negative, passing through a brief period of neutral stability before becoming stable, with smaller scale turbulence and the potential for low level jet (LLJ) formation; and 2) frontal passage as an example of a synoptic weather event that may cause relatively rapid changes in wind speed and direction. The team compared and contrasted two primary techniques for non-stationary forcing of the microscale by the mesoscale model. The first is to use the tendencies from the mesoscale model to directly force the microscale mode. The second method is to couple not only the microscale domain's internal forcing parameters, but also its lateral boundaries, to a mesoscale simulation. While the boundary coupled approach provides the greatest generality, since the mesoscale flow information providing the lateral boundary information for the microscale domain contains no explicit turbulence information, the approach requires methods to accelerate turbulence production at the microscale domain's inflow boundaries. Forefront assessment strategies, including comparing spectra and cospectra, were used to assess the techniques. Testing methods to initialize turbulence at the microscale was also accomplished.

The Santa Barbara Channel - Santa Maria Basin Study: Wind Measurements and Modeling Resolving Coastal Mesoscale Meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, C. E.; Koracin, D.

2002-12-01

The importance of winds in driving the coastal ocean has long been recognized. Pre-World War II literature links wind stress and wind stress curl to coastal ocean responses. Nevertheless, direct measurements plausibly representative of a coastal area are few. Multiple observations on the scale of the simplest mesoscale atmospheric structure, such as the cross-coast variation along a linear coast, are even less frequent. The only wind measurements that we are aware of in a complicated coastal area backed by higher topography are in the MMS sponsored, Santa Barbara Channel/Santa Marina basin study. Taking place from 1994 to present, this study had an unheard of dense surface automated meteorological station array of up to 5 meteorological buoys, 4 oil platforms, 2 island stations, and 11 coastal stations within 1 km of the beach. Most of the land stations are maintained by other projects. Only a large, a well funded project with backed by an agency with the long-view could dedicate the resources and effort into filling the mesoscale "holes" and maintaining long-term, remotely located stations. The result of the MMS funded project is a sufficiently dense surface station array to resolve the along-coast and cross-coast atmospheric mesoscale wind structure. Great temporal and spatial variation is found in the wind, wind stress and the wind stress curl, during the extended summer season. The MM5 atmospheric mesoscale model with appropriate boundary layer physics and high-resolution horizontal and vertical grid structure successfully simulates the measured wind field from large scale down to the lower end of the mesoscale. Atmospheric models without appropriate resolution and boundary layer physics fail to capture significant mesoscale wind features. Satellite microwave wind measurements generally capture the offshore synoptic scale temporal and spatial scale in twice-a-day snap shots but fail in the crucial, innermost coastal waters and the diurnal scale.

Urbanization and agriculture increase exports and differentially alter elemental stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from tropical catchments.

PubMed

Gücker, Björn; Silva, Ricky C S; Graeber, Daniel; Monteiro, José A F; Boëchat, Iola G

2016-04-15

Many tropical biomes are threatened by rapid land-use change, but its catchment-wide biogeochemical effects are poorly understood. The few previous studies on DOM in tropical catchments suggest that deforestation and subsequent land use increase stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, but consistent effects on DOM elemental stoichiometry have not yet been reported. Here, we studied stream water DOC concentrations, catchment DOC exports, and DOM elemental stoichiometry in 20 tropical catchments at the Cerrado-Atlantic rainforest transition, dominated by natural vegetation, pasture, intensive agriculture, and urban land cover. Streams draining pasture could be distinguished from those draining natural catchments by their lower DOC concentrations, with lower DOM C:N and C:P ratios. Catchments with intensive agriculture had higher DOC exports and lower DOM C:P ratios than natural catchments. Finally, with the highest DOC concentrations and exports, as well as the highest DOM C:P and N:P ratios, but the lowest C:N ratios among all land-use types, urbanized catchments had the strongest effects on catchment DOM. Thus, urbanization may have alleviated N limitation of heterotrophic DOM decomposition, but increased P limitation. Land use-especially urbanization-also affected the seasonality of catchment biogeochemistry. While natural catchments exhibited high DOC exports and concentrations, with high DOM C:P ratios in the rainy season only, urbanized catchments had high values in these variables throughout the year. Our results suggest that urbanization and pastoral land use exerted the strongest impacts on DOM biogeochemistry in the investigated tropical catchments and should thus be important targets for management and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Wood, J. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Read, W. L.

1972-01-01

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyons, Walter A.; Keen, Cecil S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark; Pease, Steven R.

1988-01-01

It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekman, Axel A.; Chen, Jian-Hua; Guo, Jessica

In the context of cell biology, the term mesoscale describes length scales ranging from that of an individual cell, down to the size of the molecular machines. In this spatial regime, small building blocks self-organise to form large, functional structures. A comprehensive set of rules governing mesoscale self-organisation has not been established, making the prediction of many cell behaviours difficult, if not impossible. Our knowledge of mesoscale biology comes from experimental data, in particular, imaging. Here, we explore the application of soft X-ray tomography (SXT) to imaging the mesoscale, and describe the structural insights this technology can generate. We alsomore » discuss how SXT imaging is complemented by the addition of correlative fluorescence data measured from the same cell. This combination of two discrete imaging modalities produces a 3D view of the cell that blends high-resolution structural information with precise molecular localisation data.« less

Retrieving Mesoscale Vertical Velocities along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from a Combination of Satellite and In Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buongiorno Nardelli, B.; Iudicone, D.; Cotroneo, Y.; Zambianchi, E.; Rio, M. H.

2016-02-01

In the framework of the Italian National Program on Antarctic Research (PNRA), an analysis of the mesoscale dynamics along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has been carried out starting from a combination of satellite and in situ observations. More specifically, state-of-the-art statistical techniques have been used to combine remotely-sensed sea surface temperature, salinity and absolute dynamical topography with in situ Argo data, providing mesoscale-resolving 3D tracers and geostrophic velocity fields. The 3D reconstruction has been validated with independent data collected during PNRA surveys. These data are then used to diagnose the vertical exchanges in the Southern Ocean through a generalized version of the Omega equation. Intense vertical motion (O(100 m/day)) is found along the ACC, upstream/downstream of its meanders, and within mesoscale eddies, where multipolar vertical velocity patterns are generally observed.

Interactive information processing for NASA's mesoscale analysis and space sensor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, K. G.; Maclean, L.; Reavis, N.; Wilson, G.; Hickey, J. S.; Dickerson, M.; Karitani, S.; Keller, D.

1985-01-01

The Atmospheric Sciences Division (ASD) of the Systems Dynamics Laboratory at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is currently involved in interactive information processing for the Mesoscale Analysis and Space Sensor (MASS) program. Specifically, the ASD is engaged in the development and implementation of new space-borne remote sensing technology to observe and measure mesoscale atmospheric processes. These space measurements and conventional observational data are being processed together to gain an improved understanding of the mesoscale structure and the dynamical evolution of the atmosphere relative to cloud development and precipitation processes. To satisfy its vast data processing requirements, the ASD has developed a Researcher Computer System consiting of three primary computer systems which provides over 20 scientists with a wide range of capabilities for processing and displaying a large volumes of remote sensing data. Each of the computers performs a specific function according to its unique capabilities.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

Peak Flow Responses and Recession Flow Characteristics After Thinning of Japanese Cypress Forest in a Headwater Catchment

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluated the effects of forest thinning on peak flow and recession characteristics of storm runoff in headwater catchments at Mie Prefecture, Japan. In catchment M5, 58.3% of stems were removed, whereas catchment M4 remained untreated as a control catchment. Storm precipitati...

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation and the Spatial-temporal Variability of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, North Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapa, C.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Alin, S. R.; Lopez-Perez, A.

2016-12-01

The relationship between the surface enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and wind variability and circulation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (GT) was examined from satellite images and in situ data from three cruises (June 2010; April and November 2013). Monthly mean wind climatologies (and derived variables), sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomaly fields were analyzed in the GT and part of the NETP. Signal decomposition according to circulation scales (seasonal, inter-annual, mesoscale) was performed using harmonic analysis for the seasonal components, and empirical orthogonal functions for the residuals, applied to satellite sea-level anomaly data. The results show that wind is the main driving force of the variability in the GT. Mesoscale is the variable with the highest percent of local variance (25-75%), due mainly to mesoscale eddies, followed by seasonality (20-55%), and finally the inter-annual signal (10-30%), dominated by ENSO. Mesoscale and seasonality prevailed during the samplings. The changes in circulation led to variations in the concentration of surface DIC ranging between 100 and 300 µmol kg-1 (436 µatm) due to Ekman pumping. The largest enrichment occurred in November 2013 after a strong northerly wind event. However, the predominance of mesoscale events suggests that changes in dissolved inorganic carbon resulting from mesoscale- derived Ekman pumping may become important in the long term and with a larger spatial and temporal coverage. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of dissolved inorganic carbon may be linked to wind seasonality.

Mars-GRAM Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary; Justus, C. G.

2007-01-01

An overview is presented of the Mars-Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) and its new features. One important new feature is the "auxiliary profile" option, whereby a simple input file is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) for three candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites (Terby Crater, Melas Chasma, and Gale Crater). A global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database has also been generated for purposes of making 'Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude bins and 15 degree L(sub S) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Comparisons show reasonably good consistency between Mars-GRAM with low dust optical depth and both TES observed and mesoscale model simulated density at the three study sites. Mean winds differ by a more significant degree. Comparisons of mesoscale and TES standard deviations' with conventional Mars-GRAM values, show that Mars-GRAM density perturbations are somewhat conservative (larger than observed variability), while mesoscale-modeled wind variations are larger than Mars-GRAM model estimates. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Subregional characterization of mesoscale eddies across the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, Evan; Pascual, Ananda; Gaube, Peter; Ruiz, Simón; Pelegrí, Josep L.; Delepoulle, Antoine

2017-04-01

Horizontal and vertical motions associated with coherent mesoscale structures, including eddies and meanders, are responsible for significant global transports of many properties, including heat and mass. Mesoscale vertical fluxes also influence upper ocean biological productivity by mediating the supply of nutrients into the euphotic layer, with potential impacts on the global carbon cycle. The Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) is a western boundary current region in the South Atlantic with intense mesoscale activity. This region has an active role in the genesis and transformation of water masses and thus is a critical component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The collision between the Malvinas and Brazil Currents over the Patagonian shelf/slope creates an energetic front that translates offshore to form a vigorous eddy field. Recent improvements in gridded altimetric sea level anomaly fields allow us to track BMC mesoscale eddies with high spatial and temporal resolutions using an automated eddy tracker. We characterize the eddies across fourteen 5° × 5° subregions. Eddy-centric composites of tracers and geostrophic currents diagnosed from a global reanalysis of surface and in situ data reveal substantial subregional heterogeneity. The in situ data are also used to compute the evolving quasi-geostrophic vertical velocity (QG-ω) associated with each instantaneous eddy instance. The QG-ω eddy composites have the expected dipole patterns of alternating upwelling/downwelling, however, the magnitude and sign of azimuthally averaged vertical velocity varies among subregions. Maximum eddy values are found near fronts and sharp topographic gradients. In comparison with regional eddy composites, subregional composites provide refined information about mesoscale eddy heterogeneity.

An empirical relationship between mesoscale carbon monoxide concentrations and vehicular emission rates : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-01-01

Presented is a relatively simple empirical equation that reasonably approximates the relationship between mesoscale carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, areal vehicular CO emission rates, and the meteorological factors of wind speed and mixing height...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > Mesoscale Modeling > PEOPLE Home Mission Models R & D Collaborators Documentation Change Log People Calendar References Verification/Diagnostics Tropical & Extratropical Cyclone Tracks & Verification Implementation Info FAQ Disclaimer More Info MESOSCALE MODELING PEOPLE

Remote sensing of surface water quality in relation to catchment condition in Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masocha, Mhosisi; Murwira, Amon; Magadza, Christopher H. D.; Hirji, Rafik; Dube, Timothy

2017-08-01

The degradation of river catchments is one of the most important contemporary environmental problems affecting water quality in tropical countries. In this study, we used remotely sensed Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess how catchment condition varies within and across river catchments in Zimbabwe. We then used non-linear regression to test whether catchment condition assessed using the NDVI is significantly (α = 0.05) related with levels of Total Suspended Solids (TSS) measured at different sampling points in thirty-two sub-catchments in Zimbabwe. The results showed a consistent negative curvilinear relationship between Landsat 8 derived NDVI and TSS measured across the catchments under study. In the drier catchments of the country, 98% of the variation in TSS is explained by NDVI, while in wetter catchments, 64% of the variation in TSS is explained by NDVI. Our results suggest that NDVI derived from free and readily available multispectral Landsat series data (Landsat 8) is a potential valuable tool for the rapid assessment of physical water quality in data poor catchments. Overall, the finding of this study underscores the usefulness of readily available satellite data for near-real time monitoring of the physical water quality at river catchment scale, especially in resource-constrained areas, such as the sub-Saharan Africa.

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, William

1993-01-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

An approach to predict water quality in data-sparse catchments using hydrological catchment similarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Glendell, Miriam; Stutter, Marc I.; Helliwell, Rachel C.

2017-04-01

An understanding of catchment response to climate and land use change at a regional scale is necessary for the assessment of mitigation and adaptation options addressing diffuse nutrient pollution. It is well documented that the physicochemical properties of a river ecosystem respond to change in a non-linear fashion. This is particularly important when threshold water concentrations, relevant to national and EU legislation, are exceeded. Large scale (regional) model assessments required for regulatory purposes must represent the key processes and mechanisms that are more readily understood in catchments with water quantity and water quality data monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. While daily discharge data are available for most catchments in Scotland, nitrate and phosphorus are mostly available on a monthly basis only, as typified by regulatory monitoring. However, high resolution (hourly to daily) water quantity and water quality data exist for a limited number of research catchments. To successfully implement adaptation measures across Scotland, an upscaling from data-rich to data-sparse catchments is required. In addition, the widespread availability of spatial datasets affecting hydrological and biogeochemical responses (e.g. soils, topography/geomorphology, land use, vegetation etc.) provide an opportunity to transfer predictions between data-rich and data-sparse areas by linking processes and responses to catchment attributes. Here, we develop a framework of catchment typologies as a prerequisite for transferring information from data-rich to data-sparse catchments by focusing on how hydrological catchment similarity can be used as an indicator of grouped behaviours in water quality response. As indicators of hydrological catchment similarity we use flow indices derived from observed discharge data across Scotland as well as hydrological model parameters. For the latter, we calibrated the lumped rainfall-runoff model TUWModel using multiple objective functions. The relationships between indicators of hydrological catchment similarity, physical catchment characteristics and nitrate and phosphorus concentrations in rivers are then investigated using multivariate statistics. This understanding of the relationship between catchment characteristics, hydrological processes and water quality will allow us to implement more efficient regulatory water quality monitoring strategies, to improve existing water quality models and to model mitigation and adaptation scenarios to global change in data-sparse catchments.

Changes in catchment hydrology in relation to vegetation recovery: a comparative modelling experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lana-Renault, Noemí; Karssenberg, Derek; Latron, Jérôme; Serrano, Mā Pilar; Regüés, David; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2010-05-01

Mediterranean mountains have been largely affected by land abandonment and subsequent vegetation recovery, with a general expansion of shrubs and forests. Such a large scale land-cover change has modified the hydrological behavior of these areas, with significant impact on runoff production. Forecasting the trend of water resources under future re-vegetation scenarios is of paramount importance in Mediterranean basins, where water management relies on runoff generated in these areas. With this purpose, a modelling experiment was designed based on the information collected in two neighbouring research catchments with a different history of land use in the central Spanish Pyrenees. One (2.84 km2) is an abandoned agricultural catchment subjected to plant colonization and at present mainly covered by shrubs. The other (0.92 km2) is a catchment covered by dense natural forest, representative of undisturbed environments. Here we present the results of the analysis of the hydrological differences between the two catchments, and a description of the approach and results of the modelling experiment. In a statistical analysis of the field data, significant differences were observed in the streamflow response of the two catchments. The forested catchment recorded fewer floods per year compared to the old agricultural catchment, and its hydrological response was characterised by a marked seasonality, with autumn and spring as the only high flow periods. Stormflow was generally higher in the old agricultural catchment, especially for low to intermediate size events; only for large events the stormflow in the forested catchment was sometimes greater. Under drier conditions, the relative differences in the stormflow between the two catchments tended to increase whereas under wet conditions they tended to be similar. The forested catchment always reacted more slowly to rainfall, with lower peakflows (generally one order of magnitude lower) and longer recession limbs. The modelling experiment aims at separating the effect of land cover from other differences (e.g. catchment area, morphology) between the two catchments. This approach allows us to make general statements on effects of land cover, required for future predictions for larger areas. In our modelling experiment, a process-based distributed hydrological model is used for the two catchments. First, we calibrate the model using data from the two catchments until a single set of parameters valid for both is found. With this set of parameters and considering a given meteorological driver (due to their proximity, it can be considered the same for both catchments), runoff at the outlet of each catchment is simulated. Land cover is then swapped between catchments and a new runoff simulation is performed for each "swapped" catchment, using the same set of parameters and the same meteorological driver. The effects of the land cover change are determined by analysing the differences between the first and the "swapped" simulations. This study is based on an analysis of the hydrological differences of two catchments with different history of land use, and a comparative modelling experiment applied to them. Following this approach, we attempt to advance our understanding of the effects of land-use/land-cover changes in catchment hydrology and, ultimately, anticipate their hydrological consequences under a future re-vegetation scenario.

Typecasting catchments: Classification, directionality, and the pursuit of universality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Tyler; Marshall, Lucy; McGlynn, Brian

2018-02-01

Catchment classification poses a significant challenge to hydrology and hydrologic modeling, restricting widespread transfer of knowledge from well-studied sites. The identification of important physical, climatological, or hydrologic attributes (to varying degrees depending on application/data availability) has traditionally been the focus for catchment classification. Classification approaches are regularly assessed with regard to their ability to provide suitable hydrologic predictions - commonly by transferring fitted hydrologic parameters at a data-rich catchment to a data-poor catchment deemed similar by the classification. While such approaches to hydrology's grand challenges are intuitive, they often ignore the most uncertain aspect of the process - the model itself. We explore catchment classification and parameter transferability and the concept of universal donor/acceptor catchments. We identify the implications of the assumption that the transfer of parameters between "similar" catchments is reciprocal (i.e., non-directional). These concepts are considered through three case studies situated across multiple gradients that include model complexity, process description, and site characteristics. Case study results highlight that some catchments are more successfully used as donor catchments and others are better suited as acceptor catchments. These results were observed for both black-box and process consistent hydrologic models, as well as for differing levels of catchment similarity. Therefore, we suggest that similarity does not adequately satisfy the underlying assumptions being made in parameter regionalization approaches regardless of model appropriateness. Furthermore, we suggest that the directionality of parameter transfer is an important factor in determining the success of parameter regionalization approaches.

DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND-SURFACE MODEL PART I: APPLICATION IN A MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Parameterization of land-surface processes and consideration of surface inhomogeneities are very important to mesoscale meteorological modeling applications, especially those that provide information for air quality modeling. To provide crucial, reliable information on the diurn...

Mesoscale Waves in Jupiter Atmosphere

NASA Image and Video Library

1997-09-07

These two images of Jupiter atmosphere were taken with the violet filter of the Solid State Imaging CCD system aboard NASA Galileo spacecraft. Mesoscale waves can be seen in the center of the upper image. The images were obtained on June 26, 1996.

NASA/MSFC FY-85 Atmospheric Processes Research Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, W. W. (Compiler); Porter, F. (Compiler)

1985-01-01

The two main areas of focus for the research program are global scale processes and mesoscale processes. Geophysical fluid processes, satellite doppler lidar, satellite data analysis, atmospheric electricity, doppler lidar wind research, and mesoscale modeling are among the topics covered.

Antarctic mesocyclone regimes from satellite and conventional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, Mark; Carleton, Andrew M.

1992-03-01

Mesoscale vortices in the Antarctic, poleward of 50°S, are examined in the synoptic context for the Ross Sea sector (100°E eastward to 80°W) for transition and winter months of 1988, using DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) thermal infrared (TIR) images. Mesoscale vortices are classified and tracked and the dominant characteristics, such as life span, speed of movement and preferred geographical locations of formation, are defined and discussed. A "superposed epoch" (compositing) method utilizing 1000 and 500mb height data identifies the dominant synoptic regimes in which mesoscale vortices tend to develop. This analysis indicates that during active or outbreak periods, a negative thickness anomaly ("cold pool") is located northeast of the Ross Sea, and mesoscale vortices tend to occur on the poleward side of that anomaly. In addition, an enhanced trough-ridge pattern is evident for the Ross Sea sector compared with the composite pattern for inactive, or dearth, periods. The active periods of mesoscale vortices appear to originate from Antarctica, possibly via the persistent katabatic outflows from the ice sheet, rather than from teleconnections to lower latitudes. Analysis of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data for the Ross Sea region supports this notion, at least for individual cases. Confirmation of these findings for the corresponding months of additional years is continuing.

Space Technology 5 Multi-point Observations of Field-aligned Currents: Temporal Variability of Meso-Scale Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Wang, Yongli; Slavin, James A.; Strangeway, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of - 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx. 1 min for meso-scale currents and approx. 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Mesoscale characterization of local property distributions in heterogeneous electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Tim; Epting, William K.; Mahbub, Rubayyat; Nuhfer, Noel T.; Bhattacharya, Sudip; Lei, Yinkai; Miller, Herbert M.; Ohodnicki, Paul R.; Gerdes, Kirk R.; Abernathy, Harry W.; Hackett, Gregory A.; Rollett, Anthony D.; De Graef, Marc; Litster, Shawn; Salvador, Paul A.

2018-05-01

The performance of electrochemical devices depends on the three-dimensional (3D) distributions of microstructural features in their electrodes. Several mature methods exist to characterize 3D microstructures over the microscale (tens of microns), which are useful in understanding homogeneous electrodes. However, methods that capture mesoscale (hundreds of microns) volumes at appropriate resolution (tens of nm) are lacking, though they are needed to understand more common, less ideal electrodes. Using serial sectioning with a Xe plasma focused ion beam combined with scanning electron microscopy (Xe PFIB-SEM), two commercial solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrodes are reconstructed over volumes of 126 × 73 × 12.5 and 124 × 110 × 8 μm3 with a resolution on the order of ≈ 503 nm3. The mesoscale distributions of microscale structural features are quantified and both microscale and mesoscale inhomogeneities are found. We analyze the origin of inhomogeneity over different length scales by comparing experimental and synthetic microstructures, generated with different particle size distributions, with such synthetic microstructures capturing well the high-frequency heterogeneity. Effective medium theory models indicate that significant mesoscale variations in local electrochemical activity are expected throughout such electrodes. These methods offer improved understanding of the performance of complex electrodes in energy conversion devices.

How does mesoscale impact deep convection? Answers from ensemble Northwestern Mediterranean Sea simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldman, Robin; Herrmann, Marine; Somot, Samuel; Arsouze, Thomas; Benshila, Rachid; Bosse, Anthony; Chanut, Jérôme; Giordani, Hervé; Pennel, Romain; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

2017-04-01

Ocean deep convection is a major process of interaction between surface and deep ocean. The Gulf of Lions is a well-documented deep convection area in the Mediterranean Sea, and mesoscale dynamics is a known factor impacting this phenomenon. However, previous modelling studies don't allow to address the robustness of its impact with respect to the physical configuration and ocean intrinsic variability. In this study, the impact of mesoscale on ocean deep convection in the Gulf of Lions is investigated using a multi-resolution ensemble simulation of the northwestern Mediterranean sea. The eddy-permitting Mediterranean model NEMOMED12 (6km resolution) is compared to its eddy-resolving counterpart with the 2-way grid refinement AGRIF in the northwestern Mediterranean (2km resolution). We focus on the well-documented 2012-2013 period and on the multidecadal timescale (1979-2013). The impact of mesoscale on deep convection is addressed in terms of its mean and variability, its impact on deep water transformations and on associated dynamical structures. Results are interpreted by diagnosing regional mean and eddy circulation and using buoyancy budgets. We find a mean inhibition of deep convection by mesoscale with large interannual variability. It is associated with a large impact on mean and transient circulation and a large air-sea flux feedback.

Deviations from Equilibrium in Daytime Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence arising from Nonstationary Mesoscale Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaraman, Balaji; Brasseur, James; Haupt, Sue; Lee, Jared

2016-11-01

LES of the "canonical" daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over flat topography is developed as an equilibrium ABL with steady surface heat flux, Q0 and steady unidirectional "geostrophic" wind vector Vg above a capping inversion. A strong inversion layer in daytime ABL acts as a "lid" that sharply separates 3D "microscale" ABL turbulence at the O(10) m scale from the quasi-2D "mesoscale" turbulent weather eddies (O(100) km scale). While "canonical" ABL is equilibrium, quasi-stationary and characterized statistically by the ratio of boundary layer depth (zi) to Obukhov length scale (- L) , the real mesoscale influences (Ug and Q0) that force a true daytime ABL are nonstationary at both diurnal and sub-diurnal time scales. We study the consequences of this non-stationarity on ABL dynamics by forcing ABL LES with realistic WRF simulations over flat Kansas terrain. Considering horizontal homogeneity, we relate the mesoscale and geostrophic winds, Ug and Vg, and systematically study the ABL turbulence response to non-steady variations in Q0 and Ug. We observe significant deviations from equilibrium, that manifest in many ways, such as the formation of "roll" eddies purely from changes in mesoscale wind direction that are normally associated with increased surface heat flux. Support from DOE. Compute resources from Penn State ICS.

How old is streamwater? Open questions in catchment transit time conceptualization, modeling and analysis

Treesearch

J.J. McDonnell; K. McGuire; P. Aggarwal; K.J. Beven; D. Biondi; G. Destouni; S. Dunn; A. James; J. Kirchner; P. Kraft; S. Lyon; P. Maloszewski; B. Newman; L. Pfister; A. Rinaldo; A. Rodhe; T. Sayama; J. Seibert; K. Solomon; C. Soulsby; M. Stewart; D. Tetzlaff; C. Tobin; P. Troch; M. Weiler; A. Western; A. Wörman; S. Wrede

2010-01-01

The time water spends travelling subsurface through a catchment to the stream network (i.e. the catchment water transit time) fundamentally describes the storage, flow pathway heterogeneity and sources of water in a catchment. The distribution of transit times reflects how catchments retain and release water and solutes that in turn set biogeochemical conditions and...

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 3. The large catchment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Viney, Neil R.; Jeevaraj, Charles G.

1996-03-01

This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1-5 km2 in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing.The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km2) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Ruprecht, John K.; Viney, Neil R.

1996-03-01

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers.The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.

Identifying Hydrogeological Controls of Catchment Low-Flow Dynamics Using Physically Based Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochand, F.; Carlier, C.; Staudinger, M.; Seibert, J.; Hunkeler, D.; Brunner, P.

2017-12-01

Identifying key catchment characteristics and processes which control the hydrological response under low-flow conditions is important to assess the catchments' vulnerability to dry periods. In the context of a Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) project, the low-flow behaviours of two mountainous catchments were investigated. These neighboring catchments are characterized by the same meteorological conditions, but feature completely different river flow dynamics. The Roethenbach is characterized by high peak flows and low mean flows. Conversely, the Langete is characterized by relatively low peak flows and high mean flow rates. To understand the fundamentally different behaviour of the two catchments, a physically-based surface-subsurface flow HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for each catchment was developed. The main advantage of a physically-based model is its ability to realistically reproduce processes which play a key role during low-flow periods such as surface-subsurface interactions or evapotranspiration. Both models were calibrated to reproduce measured groundwater heads and the surface flow dynamics. Subsequently, the calibrated models were used to explore the fundamental physics that control hydrological processes during low-flow periods. To achieve this, a comparative sensitivity analysis of model parameters of both catchments was carried out. Results show that the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (and weathered bedrock) controls the catchment water dynamics in both models. Conversely, the properties of other geological formations such as alluvial aquifer or soil layer hydraulic conductivity or porosity play a less important role. These results change significantly our perception of the streamflow catchment dynamics and more specifically the way to assess catchment vulnerability to dry period. This study suggests that by analysing catchment scale bedrock properties, the catchment dynamics and the vulnerability to dry period may be assessed.

Effect of land cover and use on dry season river runoff, runoff efficiency, and peak storm runoff in the seasonal tropics of Central Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogden, Fred L.; Crouch, Trey D.; Stallard, Robert F.; Hall, Jefferson S.

2013-01-01

A paired catchment methodology was used with more than 3 years of data to test whether forests increase base flow in the dry season, despite reduced annual runoff caused by evapotranspiration (the “sponge-effect hypothesis”), and whether forests reduce maximum runoff rates and totals during storms. The three study catchments were: a 142.3 ha old secondary forest, a 175.6 ha mosaic of mixed age forest, pasture, and subsistence agriculture, and a 35.9 ha actively grazed pasture subcatchment of the mosaic catchment. The two larger catchments are adjacent, with similar morphology, soils, underlying geology, and rainfall. Annual water balances, peak runoff rates, runoff efficiencies, and dry season recessions show significant differences. Dry season runoff from the forested catchment receded more slowly than from the mosaic and pasture catchments. The runoff rate from the forest catchment was 1–50% greater than that from the similarly sized mosaic catchment at the end of the dry season. This observation supports the sponge-effect hypothesis. The pasture and mosaic catchment median runoff efficiencies were 2.7 and 1.8 times that of the forest catchment, respectively, and increased with total storm rainfall. Peak runoff rates from the pasture and mosaic catchments were 1.7 and 1.4 times those of the forest catchment, respectively. The forest catchment produced 35% less total runoff and smaller peak runoff rates during the flood of record in the Panama Canal Watershed. Flood peak reduction and increased streamflows through dry periods are important benefits relevant to watershed management, payment for ecosystem services, water-quality management, reservoir sedimentation, and fresh water security in the Panama Canal watershed and similar tropical landscapes.

Impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in Rhineland-Palatinate/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casper, M. C.; Grigoryan, G. V.

2009-04-01

The Ministry of the Environment of Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, launched an interdisciplinary research project dealing with "climate and land use change in Rhineland-Palatinate" (KlimLandRP). The aim of KlimLandRP is to specify adaptation strategies and to find current research gaps. The University of Trier/Germany undertakes the task of quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle and on water quality. In the first phase of the project (2008/2009) the models STOFFBILANZ and WaSiM-ETH are applied. WETTREG projections (2050/2100) and newly high resolution CCLM (2015-2024) projections for Rhineland-Palatinate are used to indicate the spectrum of climate change. Possible land use scenarios for agricultural regions are furthermore adopted. Using STOFFBILANZ it is possible to get approximate spatial information about present and future distribution of water, nitrate and phosphor balance in Rhineland-Palatinate and to identify sensitive regions. Based on achieved results, regions which are vulnerable to water economy are identified and adaptations proposed. With the application of WaSiM-ETH the impact of climate change on water balance of forest sites is quantified. The relation between climate parameters and tree growth indices is applied in forest management planning, particularly for forest site mapping. In the future, also the rainfall-runoff model LARSIM will be applied to quantify the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle of mesoscale catchment basins.

Hillslope versus riparian zone runoff contributions in headwater catchments: A multi-watershed comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGlynn, B. L.; McGlynn, B. L.; McDonnell, J. J.; Hooper, R. P.; Shanley, J. B.; Hjerdt, K. N.; Hjerdt, K. N.

2001-12-01

It is often assumed that hillslope and riparian areas constitute the two most important and identifiable landscape units contributing to catchment runoff in upland humid catchments. Nevertheless, the relative amount and timing of hillslope versus riparian contributions to stormflow are poorly understood across different watersheds. We quantified the contributions of hillslopes and riparian zones to stormflow using physical, chemical, and isotopic techniques across 3 diverse ({ ~}15 ha) headwater catchments: a highly responsive steep wet watershed (Maimai, New Zealand), a moderately steep snowmelt dominated watershed (Sleepers, River, VT), and at a highly seasonal relatively low relief watershed (Panola Mt., Georgia). We monitored catchment runoff, internal hydrological response, and isotopic and solute dynamics for discrete riparian and hillslope zones within each catchment. Monitored catchment positions, including hillslope trenches at Maimai and Panola, were used to characterize directly, the hydrologic response and source water signatures for hillslope zones and riparian zones. We also examined the spatial and temporal source components of catchment stormflow using 3-component mass balance hydrograph separation techniques. At Maimai, NZ we found that hillslope runoff comprised 47-55% of total runoff during a 70 mm event. Despite the large amount of subsurface hillslope runoff in total catchment stormflow, riparian and channel zones accounted for 28% out of 29% of the total new water measured catchment runoff. Riparian water dominated the storm hydrograph composition early in the event, although hillslope water reached the catchment outlet soon after hillslope water tables were developed. Preliminary results for Sleepers River, VT and Panola Mountain, GA indicate that the timing and relative proportion of hillslope water in catchment runoff is later and smaller than at Maimai. Our multi-catchment comparison suggests that the ratio of the riparian reservoir to the hillslope reservoir/stormflow flux partially controls the relative contributions of hillslope and riparian zones to catchment runoff and solute dynamics.

Catchment Engineering: A New Paradigm in Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, P. F.; Burke, S.; O'Donnell, G. M.; Wilkinson, M.; Jonczyk, J.; Barber, N.; Nicholson, A.; Proactive Team

2011-12-01

Recent catchment initiatives have highlighted the need for new holistic approaches to sustainable water management. Here, a catchment engineering approach seeks to describe catchment 'function' (or role) as the principal driver for evaluating how it should be managed in the future. Catchment engineering does not seek to re-establish a natural system but seeks to work with natural processes in order to engineer landscapes so that multiple benefits accrue. This approach involves quantifying and assessing catchment change and impacts but most importantly suggests an urgent and proactive agenda for future planning. In particular, an interventionist approach to managing hydrological flow pathways across scale is proposed. It is already accepted that future management will require a range of scientific expertise and full engagement with stakeholders, namely the general public and policy makers. This inclusive concept under a catchment engineering agenda forces any consortia to commit to actively changing and perturbing the catchment system and thus learn, in situ, how to manage the environment for collective benefits. The shared cost, the design, the implementation, the evaluation and any subsequent modifications should involve all relevant parties in the consortia. This joint ownership of a 'hands on' interventionist agenda to catchment change is at the core of catchment engineering. In this paper we show a range of catchment engineering projects from the UK that have addressed multi-disciplinary approaches to flooding, pollution and ecosystem management whilst maintaining economic food production. Local scale demonstration activities, led by local champions, have proven to be an effective means of encouraging wider uptake. Catchment engineering is a concept that relies on all relevant parties within a catchment to take responsibility for the water quantity and quality that arises from the catchment. Further, any holistic solution requires a bottom up, problem solving agenda which is facilitated by policy makers and is underpinned by scientific knowledge.

Quantitative Generalizations for Catchment Sediment Yield Following Plantation Logging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathurst, James; Iroume, Andres

2014-05-01

While there is a reasonably clear qualitative understanding of the impact of forest plantations on sediment yield, there is a lack of quantitative generalizations. Such generalizations would be helpful for estimating the impacts of proposed forestry operations and would aid the spread of knowledge amongst both relevant professionals and new students. This study therefore analyzed data from the literature to determine the extent to which quantitative statements can be established. The research was restricted to the impact of plantation logging on catchment sediment yield as a function of ground disturbance in the years immediately following logging, in temperate countries, and does not consider landslides consequent upon tree root decay. Twelve paired catchment studies incorporating pre- and post-logging measurements of sediment yield were identified, resulting in forty-three test catchments (including 14 control catchments). Analysis yielded the following principal conclusions: 1) Logging generally provokes maximum annual sediment yields of less than a few hundred t km-2 yr-1; best management practice can reduce this below 100 t km-2 yr-1. 2) At both the annual and event scales, the sediment yield excess of a logged catchment over a control catchment is within one order of magnitude, except with severe ground disturbance. 3) There is no apparent relationship between sediment yield impact and the proportion of catchment logged. The effect depends on which part of the catchment is altered and on its connectivity to the stream network. 4) The majority of catchments delivered their maximum sediment yield in the first two years after logging. The logging impacts were classified in terms of the absolute values of specific sediment yield, the values relative to those in the control catchments for the same period and the values relative both to the control catchment and the pre-logging period. Most studies have been for small catchments (< 10 km2) and temperate regions; the impact at large catchment scales and in tropical regions requires further research.

Influence of vegetation on water isotope partitioning across different northern headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabor, R. S.; Tetzlaff, D.; Buttle, J. M.; Carey, S. K.; Laudon, H.; Mitchell, C. P. J.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.

2014-12-01

The hydrology of high latitude catchments is sensitive to small changes in temperature, and likely to be impacted by changes in climate. Vegetation water usage can play a large role in catchment hydrologic pathways, affecting how water is stored, released, and partitioned within a landscape. Thus a better understanding of how vegetation impacts water partitioning in northern catchments can help us understand how climate change will impact high-latitude hydrology. As part of the VeWa project, five catchments were chosen between 44oN and 64oN in Europe and North America, to compare the role of vegetation in the movement of water across northern landscapes. These catchments vary in aspect as well as extent of snowpack and their vegetative landscapes include heather moorland, coniferous and deciduous forests, mixed grass, and tundra landscapes. Importantly, all the catchments have records of stable isotopes in different waters of the system. An initial comparison of the water isotopes in these catchments demonstrates variation between the catchments, with the lower latitude sites showing more fractionation suggestive of evapotranspiration. While all catchments show a depletion of heavy isotopes in the spring, the depletion is most evident in catchments with a heavier snowpack. The vegetative growing season during the summer months shows the greatest impact of evapotranspiration on isotopes, indicating that an increased summer in a warmer climate would likely alter water partitioning and storage dynamics in these regions.

Symmetry enhancement of extremal horizons in D  =  5 supergravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayani, U.

2018-06-01

We consider the near-horizon geometry of supersymmetric extremal black holes in un-gauged and gauged 5-dimensional supergravity, coupled to abelian vector multiplets. By analyzing the global properties of the Killing spinors, we prove that the near-horizon geometries undergo a supersymmetry enhancement. This follows from a set of generalized Lichnerowicz-type theorems we establish, together with an index theory argument. As a consequence, these solutions always admit a symmetry group.

On river-floodplain interaction and hydrograph skewness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Ayan S.; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Collischonn, Walter; Sorribas, Mino V.; Pontes, Paulo R. M.

2016-10-01

Understanding hydrological processes occurring within a basin by looking at its outlet hydrograph can improve and foster comprehension of ungauged regions. In this context, we present an extensive examination of the roles that floodplains play on driving hydrograph shapes. Observations of many river hydrographs with large floodplain influence are carried out and indicate that a negative skewness of the hydrographs is present among many of them. Through a series of numerical experiments and analytical reasoning, we show how the relationship between flood wave celerity and discharge in such systems is responsible for determining the hydrograph shapes. The more water inundates the floodplains upstream of the observed point, the more negatively skewed is the observed hydrograph. A case study is performed in the Amazon River Basin, where major rivers with large floodplain attenuation (e.g., Purus, Madeira, and Juruá) are identified with higher negative skewness in the respective hydrographs. Finally, different wetland types could be distinguished by using this feature, e.g., wetlands maintained by endogenous processes, from wetlands governed by overbank flow (along river floodplains). A metric of hydrograph skewness was developed to quantify this effect, based on the time derivative of discharge. Together with the skewness concept, it may be used in other studies concerning the relevance of floodplain attenuation in large, ungauged rivers, where remote sensing data (e.g., satellite altimetry) can be very useful.

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

Discharge estimation in ungauged basins through variational data assimilation : The potential of the SWOT mission.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubanas, H.; Gejadze, I.; Malaterre, P. O.; Durand, M. T.; Wei, R.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Domeneghetti, A.

2017-12-01

This work investigates the estimation of river discharge from simulated observations of the forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, to be launched in 2021, using a variant of the standard variational data assimilation method `4D-Var'. The hydrology SWOT simulator, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has been used to simulate the expected performance of the KaRIn instrument onboard the satellite, producing synthetic SWOT observations of height and width, at each satellite overpass. SWOT data products were synthesized at the spatial scale of 200 m along the river centerline. Using a 1.5D full Saint-Venant hydraulic model, variational data assimilation simultaneously estimates the inflow discharge, river bathymetry and bed roughness. The proposed method has been designed for an application to fully ungauged basins; therefore, the prior information is derived from the SWOT observations only and the globally available ancillary information. Two reaches of the Po and Sacramento Rivers of about 130 km and 150 km, respectively, have been considered in this study. Discharge was successfully recovered at the overpass time with a relative-root-mean-square error of 16% and 12.3% for the Po and Sacramento Rivers, respectively. The estimates of the bed level and the roughness coefficient demonstrate a local improvement; however they may not provide reliable global information of the river bathymetry and roughness.

HYDROGRAV - Hydrological model calibration and terrestrial water storage monitoring from GRACE gravimetry and satellite altimetry - First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, O. B.; Krogh, P. E.; Michailovsky, C.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.; Christiansen, L.; Berry, P.; Garlick, J.

2008-12-01

Space-borne and ground-based time-lapse gravity observations provide new data for water balance monitoring and hydrological model calibration in the future. The HYDROGRAV project (www.hydrograv.dk) will explore the utility of time-lapse gravity surveys for hydrological model calibration and terrestrial water storage monitoring. Merging remote sensing data from GRACE with other remote sensing data like satellite altimetry and also ground based observations are important to hydrological model calibration and water balance monitoring of large regions and can serve as either supplement or as vital information in un-gauged regions. A system of GRACE custom designed Mass Concentration blocks (Mascons) have been designed to model time-variable gravity changes for the largest basins in Southern Africa (Zambezi, Okavango, Limpopo and Orange) covering an area of 9 mill km2 with a resolution of 1 by 1.25 degree. Satellite altimetry have been used to derive high resolution point-wise river height in some of the un-gauged rivers in the region by using dedicated retracking to recovers nearly un-interrupted time series over these rivers. First result from the HYDROGRAV project analyzing GRACE derived mass change from 2002 to 2008 along with in-situ gravity time-lapse observations and radar altimetry monitoring of surface water for the southern Africa river basins will be presented.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Spatial and temporal variation of residence time and storage volume of subsurface water evaluated by multi-tracers approach in mountainous headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimura, Maki; Yano, Shinjiro; Abe, Yutaka; Matsumoto, Takehiro; Yoshizawa, Ayumi; Watanabe, Ysuhito; Ikeda, Koichi

2015-04-01

Headwater catchments in mountainous region are the most important recharge area for surface and subsurface waters, additionally time and stock information of the water is principal to understand hydrological processes in the catchments. However, there have been few researches to evaluate variation of residence time and storage volume of subsurface water in time and space at the mountainous headwaters especially with steep slope. We performed an investigation on age dating and estimation of storage volume using simple water budget model in subsurface water with tracing of hydrological flow processes in mountainous catchments underlain by granite, Paleozoic and Tertiary, Yamanashi and Tsukuba, central Japan. We conducted hydrometric measurements and sampling of spring, stream and ground waters in high-flow and low-flow seasons from 2008 through 2012 in the catchments, and CFCs, stable isotopic ratios of oxygen-18 and deuterium, inorganic solute constituent concentrations were determined on all water samples. Residence time of subsurface water ranged from 11 to 60 years in the granite catchments, from 17 to 32 years in the Paleozoic catchments, from 13 to 26 years in the Tertiary catchments, and showed a younger age during the high-flow season, whereas it showed an older age in the low-flow season. Storage volume of subsurface water was estimated to be ranging from 10 ^ 4 to 10 ^ 6 m3 in the granite catchments, from 10 ^ 5 to 10 ^ 7 m3 in the Paleozoic catchments, from 10 ^ 4 to 10 ^ 6 m3 in the Tertiary catchments. In addition, seasonal change of storage volume in the granite catchments was the highest as compared with those of the Paleozoic and the Tertiary catchments. The results suggest that dynamic change of hydrological process seems to cause a larger variation of the residence time and storage volume of subsurface water in time and space in the granite catchments, whereas higher groundwater recharge rate due to frequent fissures or cracks seems to cause larger storage volume of the subsurface water in the Paleozoic catchments though the variation is not so considerable. Also, numerical simulation results support these findings.

Catchment Systems Engineering: A New Paradigm in Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, P. F.; Wilkinson, M. E.; Burke, S.; O'Donnell, G. M.; Jonczyk, J.; Barber, N.; Nicholson, A.

2012-04-01

Recent catchment initiatives have highlighted the need for new holistic approaches to sustainable water management. Catchment Systems Engineering seeks to describe catchment the function (or role) as the principal driver for evaluating how it should be managed in the future. Catchment Systems Engineering does not seek to re-establish a natural system but rather works with natural processes in order to engineer landscapes to accrue multiple benefits. The approach involves quantifying and assessing catchment change, impacts and most importantly, suggests an urgent and proactive agenda for future planning. In particular, an interventionist approach to managing hydrological flow pathways across scale is proposed. It is already accepted that future management will require a range of scientific expertise and full engagement with stakeholders. This inclusive concept under a Catchment Systems Engineering agenda forces any consortia to commit to actively changing and perturbing the catchment system and thus learn, in situ, how to manage the environment for collective benefits. The shared cost, the design, the implementation, the evaluation and any subsequent modifications should involve all relevant parties in the consortia. This joint ownership of a 'hands on' interventionist agenda to catchment change is at the core of Catchment Systems Engineering. In this paper we show a range of catchment engineering projects from the UK that have addressed multi-disciplinary approaches to flooding, pollution and ecosystem management, whilst maintaining economic food production. Examples using soft engineered features such as wetlands, ponds, woody debris dams and infiltration zones will be shown. Local scale demonstration activities, led by local champions, have proven to be an effective means of encouraging wider uptake. Evidence that impacts can be achieved at local catchment scale will be introduced. Catchment Systems Engineering is a concept that relies on all relevant parties within a catchment to take responsibility for the water quantity and quality that arises from the catchment. Further, any holistic solution requires a bottom up, problem solving agenda which is facilitated by policy makers and is underpinned by scientific knowledge. http:\\research.ncl.ac.ukproactive

URBAN MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS FOR MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL AND DISPERSION MODELING APPLICATIONS: CURRENT ISSUES

EPA Science Inventory

Representing urban terrain characteristics in mesoscale meteorological and dispersion models is critical to produce accurate predictions of wind flow and temperature fields, air quality, and contaminant transport. A key component of the urban terrain representation is the charac...

MESOSCALE AIR POLLUTION TRANSPORT IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

EPA Science Inventory

This research program comprised a comprehensive study of mesoscale meteorological regimes on the western shore of Lake Michigan and their effect upon air pollution dispersion and transport. It is felt that the results are applicable in a generic way to other mid-latitude coastal ...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar The Mesoscale Modeling Branch conducts a program of research and development in support of the prediction. This research and development includes mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation of domestic