Word-level language modeling for P300 spellers based on discriminative graphical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado Saa, Jaime F.; de Pesters, Adriana; McFarland, Dennis; Çetin, Müjdat

2015-04-01

Objective. In this work we propose a probabilistic graphical model framework that uses language priors at the level of words as a mechanism to increase the performance of P300-based spellers. Approach. This paper is concerned with brain-computer interfaces based on P300 spellers. Motivated by P300 spelling scenarios involving communication based on a limited vocabulary, we propose a probabilistic graphical model framework and an associated classification algorithm that uses learned statistical models of language at the level of words. Exploiting such high-level contextual information helps reduce the error rate of the speller. Main results. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach offers several advantages over existing methods. Most importantly, it increases the classification accuracy while reducing the number of times the letters need to be flashed, increasing the communication rate of the system. Significance. The proposed approach models all the variables in the P300 speller in a unified framework and has the capability to correct errors in previous letters in a word, given the data for the current one. The structure of the model we propose allows the use of efficient inference algorithms, which in turn makes it possible to use this approach in real-time applications.

A Unified Mathematical Definition of Classical Information Retrieval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dominich, Sandor

2000-01-01

Presents a unified mathematical definition for the classical models of information retrieval and identifies a mathematical structure behind relevance feedback. Highlights include vector information retrieval; probabilistic information retrieval; and similarity information retrieval. (Contains 118 references.) (Author/LRW)

Traits Without Borders: Integrating Functional Diversity Across Scales.

PubMed

Carmona, Carlos P; de Bello, Francesco; Mason, Norman W H; Lepš, Jan

2016-05-01

Owing to the conceptual complexity of functional diversity (FD), a multitude of different methods are available for measuring it, with most being operational at only a small range of spatial scales. This causes uncertainty in ecological interpretations and limits the potential to generalize findings across studies or compare patterns across scales. We solve this problem by providing a unified framework expanding on and integrating existing approaches. The framework, based on trait probability density (TPD), is the first to fully implement the Hutchinsonian concept of the niche as a probabilistic hypervolume in estimating FD. This novel approach could revolutionize FD-based research by allowing quantification of the various FD components from organismal to macroecological scales, and allowing seamless transitions between scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions

PubMed Central

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage. PMID:27468262

Probabilistic Models and Generative Neural Networks: Towards an Unified Framework for Modeling Normal and Impaired Neurocognitive Functions.

PubMed

Testolin, Alberto; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Connectionist models can be characterized within the more general framework of probabilistic graphical models, which allow to efficiently describe complex statistical distributions involving a large number of interacting variables. This integration allows building more realistic computational models of cognitive functions, which more faithfully reflect the underlying neural mechanisms at the same time providing a useful bridge to higher-level descriptions in terms of Bayesian computations. Here we discuss a powerful class of graphical models that can be implemented as stochastic, generative neural networks. These models overcome many limitations associated with classic connectionist models, for example by exploiting unsupervised learning in hierarchical architectures (deep networks) and by taking into account top-down, predictive processing supported by feedback loops. We review some recent cognitive models based on generative networks, and we point out promising research directions to investigate neuropsychological disorders within this approach. Though further efforts are required in order to fill the gap between structured Bayesian models and more realistic, biophysical models of neuronal dynamics, we argue that generative neural networks have the potential to bridge these levels of analysis, thereby improving our understanding of the neural bases of cognition and of pathologies caused by brain damage.

Probabilistic delay differential equation modeling of event-related potentials.

PubMed

Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger

2016-08-01

"Dynamic causal models" (DCMs) are a promising approach in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data due to their biophysical interpretability and their consolidation of functional-segregative and functional-integrative propositions. In this theoretical note we are concerned with the DCM framework for electroencephalographically recorded event-related potentials (ERP-DCM). Intuitively, ERP-DCM combines deterministic dynamical neural mass models with dipole-based EEG forward models to describe the event-related scalp potential time-series over the entire electrode space. Since its inception, ERP-DCM has been successfully employed to capture the neural underpinnings of a wide range of neurocognitive phenomena. However, in spite of its empirical popularity, the technical literature on ERP-DCM remains somewhat patchy. A number of previous communications have detailed certain aspects of the approach, but no unified and coherent documentation exists. With this technical note, we aim to close this gap and to increase the technical accessibility of ERP-DCM. Specifically, this note makes the following novel contributions: firstly, we provide a unified and coherent review of the mathematical machinery of the latent and forward models constituting ERP-DCM by formulating the approach as a probabilistic latent delay differential equation model. Secondly, we emphasize the probabilistic nature of the model and its variational Bayesian inversion scheme by explicitly deriving the variational free energy function in terms of both the likelihood expectation and variance parameters. Thirdly, we detail and validate the estimation of the model with a special focus on the explicit form of the variational free energy function and introduce a conventional nonlinear optimization scheme for its maximization. Finally, we identify and discuss a number of computational issues which may be addressed in the future development of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Balkanization and Unification of Probabilistic Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Chong-Ho

2005-01-01

Many research-related classes in social sciences present probability as a unified approach based upon mathematical axioms, but neglect the diversity of various probability theories and their associated philosophical assumptions. Although currently the dominant statistical and probabilistic approach is the Fisherian tradition, the use of Fisherian…

A unified probabilistic approach to improve spelling in an event-related potential-based brain-computer interface.

PubMed

Kindermans, Pieter-Jan; Verschore, Hannes; Schrauwen, Benjamin

2013-10-01

In recent years, in an attempt to maximize performance, machine learning approaches for event-related potential (ERP) spelling have become more and more complex. In this paper, we have taken a step back as we wanted to improve the performance without building an overly complex model, that cannot be used by the community. Our research resulted in a unified probabilistic model for ERP spelling, which is based on only three assumptions and incorporates language information. On top of that, the probabilistic nature of our classifier yields a natural dynamic stopping strategy. Furthermore, our method uses the same parameters across 25 subjects from three different datasets. We show that our classifier, when enhanced with language models and dynamic stopping, improves the spelling speed and accuracy drastically. Additionally, we would like to point out that as our model is entirely probabilistic, it can easily be used as the foundation for complex systems in future work. All our experiments are executed on publicly available datasets to allow for future comparison with similar techniques.

Improving ontology matching with propagation strategy and user feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunhua; Cui, Zhiming; Zhao, Pengpeng; Wu, Jian; Xin, Jie; He, Tianxu

2015-07-01

Markov logic networks which unify probabilistic graphical model and first-order logic provide an excellent framework for ontology matching. The existing approach requires a threshold to produce matching candidates and use a small set of constraints acting as filter to select the final alignments. We introduce novel match propagation strategy to model the influences between potential entity mappings across ontologies, which can help to identify the correct correspondences and produce missed correspondences. The estimation of appropriate threshold is a difficult task. We propose an interactive method for threshold selection through which we obtain an additional measurable improvement. Running experiments on a public dataset has demonstrated the effectiveness of proposed approach in terms of the quality of result alignment.

Probabilistic models of cognition: conceptual foundations.

PubMed

Chater, Nick; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Yuille, Alan

2006-07-01

Remarkable progress in the mathematics and computer science of probability has led to a revolution in the scope of probabilistic models. In particular, 'sophisticated' probabilistic methods apply to structured relational systems such as graphs and grammars, of immediate relevance to the cognitive sciences. This Special Issue outlines progress in this rapidly developing field, which provides a potentially unifying perspective across a wide range of domains and levels of explanation. Here, we introduce the historical and conceptual foundations of the approach, explore how the approach relates to studies of explicit probabilistic reasoning, and give a brief overview of the field as it stands today.

Representing Learning With Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a unified qualitative and quantitative framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. Their development and use spans several fields including artificial intelligence, decision theory and statistics, and provides an important bridge between these communities. This paper shows by way of example that these models can be extended to machine learning, neural networks and knowledge discovery by representing the notion of a sample on the graphical model. Not only does this allow a flexible variety of learning problems to be represented, it also provides the means for representing the goal of learning and opens the way for the automatic development of learning algorithms from specifications.

Mixed linear-non-linear inversion of crustal deformation data: Bayesian inference of model, weighting and regularization parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Jun'ichi; Johnson, Kaj M.

2010-06-01

We present a unified theoretical framework and solution method for probabilistic, Bayesian inversions of crustal deformation data. The inversions involve multiple data sets with unknown relative weights, model parameters that are related linearly or non-linearly through theoretic models to observations, prior information on model parameters and regularization priors to stabilize underdetermined problems. To efficiently handle non-linear inversions in which some of the model parameters are linearly related to the observations, this method combines both analytical least-squares solutions and a Monte Carlo sampling technique. In this method, model parameters that are linearly and non-linearly related to observations, relative weights of multiple data sets and relative weights of prior information and regularization priors are determined in a unified Bayesian framework. In this paper, we define the mixed linear-non-linear inverse problem, outline the theoretical basis for the method, provide a step-by-step algorithm for the inversion, validate the inversion method using synthetic data and apply the method to two real data sets. We apply the method to inversions of multiple geodetic data sets with unknown relative data weights for interseismic fault slip and locking depth. We also apply the method to the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults with unknown fault geometry, relative data weights and smoothing regularization weight.

The SCEC Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) Software Framework for Distributing and Querying Seismic Velocity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maechling, P. J.; Taborda, R.; Callaghan, S.; Shaw, J. H.; Plesch, A.; Olsen, K. B.; Jordan, T. H.; Goulet, C. A.

2017-12-01

Crustal seismic velocity models and datasets play a key role in regional three-dimensional numerical earthquake ground-motion simulation, full waveform tomography, modern physics-based probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis, as well as in other related fields including geophysics, seismology, and earthquake engineering. The standard material properties provided by a seismic velocity model are P- and S-wave velocities and density for any arbitrary point within the geographic volume for which the model is defined. Many seismic velocity models and datasets are constructed by synthesizing information from multiple sources and the resulting models are delivered to users in multiple file formats, such as text files, binary files, HDF-5 files, structured and unstructured grids, and through computer applications that allow for interactive querying of material properties. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed the Unified Community Velocity Model (UCVM) software framework to facilitate the registration and distribution of existing and future seismic velocity models to the SCEC community. The UCVM software framework is designed to provide a standard query interface to multiple, alternative velocity models, even if the underlying velocity models are defined in different formats or use different geographic projections. The UCVM framework provides a comprehensive set of open-source tools for querying seismic velocity model properties, combining regional 3D models and 1D background models, visualizing 3D models, and generating computational models in the form of regular grids or unstructured meshes that can be used as inputs for ground-motion simulations. The UCVM framework helps researchers compare seismic velocity models and build equivalent simulation meshes from alternative velocity models. These capabilities enable researchers to evaluate the impact of alternative velocity models in ground-motion simulations and seismic hazard analysis applications. In this poster, we summarize the key components of the UCVM framework and describe the impact it has had in various computational geoscientific applications.

A Guide to the Literature on Learning Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Friedland, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

This literature review discusses different methods under the general rubric of learning Bayesian networks from data, and more generally, learning probabilistic graphical models. Because many problems in artificial intelligence, statistics and neural networks can be represented as a probabilistic graphical model, this area provides a unifying perspective on learning. This paper organizes the research in this area along methodological lines of increasing complexity.

Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Höhna, Sebastian; Heath, Tracy A.; Boussau, Bastien; Landis, Michael J.; Ronquist, Fredrik; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (i) reproducibility of an analysis, (ii) model development, and (iii) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and nonspecialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis–Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution. [Computation; graphical models; inference; modularization; statistical phylogenetics; tree plate.] PMID:24951559

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charania, A. C.; Bradford, John E.; Olds, John R.; Graham, Matthew

2002-01-01

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision.

PubMed

Sherman, M T; Seth, A K; Barrett, A B; Kanai, R

2015-09-01

The influential framework of 'predictive processing' suggests that prior probabilistic expectations influence, or even constitute, perceptual contents. This notion is evidenced by the facilitation of low-level perceptual processing by expectations. However, whether expectations can facilitate high-level components of perception remains unclear. We addressed this question by considering the influence of expectations on perceptual metacognition. To isolate the effects of expectation from those of attention we used a novel factorial design: expectation was manipulated by changing the probability that a Gabor target would be presented; attention was manipulated by instructing participants to perform or ignore a concurrent visual search task. We found that, independently of attention, metacognition improved when yes/no responses were congruent with expectations of target presence/absence. Results were modeled under a novel Bayesian signal detection theoretic framework which integrates bottom-up signal propagation with top-down influences, to provide a unified description of the mechanisms underlying perceptual decision and metacognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PRISMATIC: Unified Hierarchical Probabilistic Verification Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

security protocols such as for anonymity and quantum cryptography ; and biological reaction pathways. PRISM is currently the leading probabilistic...a whole will only deadlock and fail with a probability ≤ p/2. The assumption allows us to partition the overall system verification problem into two ...run on any port using the standard HTTP protocol. In this way multiple instances of the PRISMATIC web service can respond to different requests when

A look-ahead probabilistic contingency analysis framework incorporating smart sampling techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yousu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ren, Huiying

2016-07-18

This paper describes a framework of incorporating smart sampling techniques in a probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis application. The predictive probabilistic contingency analysis helps to reflect the impact of uncertainties caused by variable generation and load on potential violations of transmission limits.

Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ruge, Diane; Stephan, Klaas E.

2016-01-01

Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses. PMID:27846219

Probabilistic Tracking and Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Ground Vehicles in Urban Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The aim of this research is to develop a unified theory for perception and planning in autonomous ground vehicles, with a...Report Title The aim of this research is to develop a unified theory for perception and planning in autonomous ground vehicles, with a specific focus on...a combination of experimentally collected vision data and Monte- Carlo simulations. Smoothing for improved perception and robustness in planning

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

PubMed

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-28

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-01

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Multiple hypothesis tracking for cluttered biological image sequences.

PubMed

Chenouard, Nicolas; Bloch, Isabelle; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe

2013-11-01

In this paper, we present a method for simultaneously tracking thousands of targets in biological image sequences, which is of major importance in modern biology. The complexity and inherent randomness of the problem lead us to propose a unified probabilistic framework for tracking biological particles in microscope images. The framework includes realistic models of particle motion and existence and of fluorescence image features. For the track extraction process per se, the very cluttered conditions motivate the adoption of a multiframe approach that enforces tracking decision robustness to poor imaging conditions and to random target movements. We tackle the large-scale nature of the problem by adapting the multiple hypothesis tracking algorithm to the proposed framework, resulting in a method with a favorable tradeoff between the model complexity and the computational cost of the tracking procedure. When compared to the state-of-the-art tracking techniques for bioimaging, the proposed algorithm is shown to be the only method providing high-quality results despite the critically poor imaging conditions and the dense target presence. We thus demonstrate the benefits of advanced Bayesian tracking techniques for the accurate computational modeling of dynamical biological processes, which is promising for further developments in this domain.

Global Infrasound Association Based on Probabilistic Clutter Categorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, Nimar; Mialle, Pierrick

2016-04-01

The IDC advances its methods and continuously improves its automatic system for the infrasound technology. The IDC focuses on enhancing the automatic system for the identification of valid signals and the optimization of the network detection threshold by identifying ways to refine signal characterization methodology and association criteria. An objective of this study is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the reviewed event bulletins. Indeed, a considerable number of signal detections are due to local clutter sources such as microbaroms, waterfalls, dams, gas flares, surf (ocean breaking waves) etc. These sources are either too diffuse or too local to form events. Worse still, the repetitive nature of this clutter leads to a large number of false event hypotheses due to the random matching of clutter at multiple stations. Previous studies, for example [1], have worked on categorization of clutter using long term trends on detection azimuth, frequency, and amplitude at each station. In this work we continue the same line of reasoning to build a probabilistic model of clutter that is used as part of NETVISA [2], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The resulting model is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] Infrasound categorization Towards a statistics based approach. J. Vergoz, P. Gaillard, A. Le Pichon, N. Brachet, and L. Ceranna. ITW 2011 [2] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Combining multiple decisions: applications to bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yukinawa, N.; Takenouchi, T.; Oba, S.; Ishii, S.

2008-01-01

Multi-class classification is one of the fundamental tasks in bioinformatics and typically arises in cancer diagnosis studies by gene expression profiling. This article reviews two recent approaches to multi-class classification by combining multiple binary classifiers, which are formulated based on a unified framework of error-correcting output coding (ECOC). The first approach is to construct a multi-class classifier in which each binary classifier to be aggregated has a weight value to be optimally tuned based on the observed data. In the second approach, misclassification of each binary classifier is formulated as a bit inversion error with a probabilistic model by making an analogy to the context of information transmission theory. Experimental studies using various real-world datasets including cancer classification problems reveal that both of the new methods are superior or comparable to other multi-class classification methods.

INFORMATION: THEORY, BRAIN, AND BEHAVIOR

PubMed Central

Jensen, Greg; Ward, Ryan D.; Balsam, Peter D.

2016-01-01

In the 65 years since its formal specification, information theory has become an established statistical paradigm, providing powerful tools for quantifying probabilistic relationships. Behavior analysis has begun to adopt these tools as a novel means of measuring the interrelations between behavior, stimuli, and contingent outcomes. This approach holds great promise for making more precise determinations about the causes of behavior and the forms in which conditioning may be encoded by organisms. In addition to providing an introduction to the basics of information theory, we review some of the ways that information theory has informed the studies of Pavlovian conditioning, operant conditioning, and behavioral neuroscience. In addition to enriching each of these empirical domains, information theory has the potential to act as a common statistical framework by which results from different domains may be integrated, compared, and ultimately unified. PMID:24122456

How many kinds of reasoning? Inference, probability, and natural language semantics.

PubMed

Lassiter, Daniel; Goodman, Noah D

2015-03-01

The "new paradigm" unifying deductive and inductive reasoning in a Bayesian framework (Oaksford & Chater, 2007; Over, 2009) has been claimed to be falsified by results which show sharp differences between reasoning about necessity vs. plausibility (Heit & Rotello, 2010; Rips, 2001; Rotello & Heit, 2009). We provide a probabilistic model of reasoning with modal expressions such as "necessary" and "plausible" informed by recent work in formal semantics of natural language, and show that it predicts the possibility of non-linear response patterns which have been claimed to be problematic. Our model also makes a strong monotonicity prediction, while two-dimensional theories predict the possibility of reversals in argument strength depending on the modal word chosen. Predictions were tested using a novel experimental paradigm that replicates the previously-reported response patterns with a minimal manipulation, changing only one word of the stimulus between conditions. We found a spectrum of reasoning "modes" corresponding to different modal words, and strong support for our model's monotonicity prediction. This indicates that probabilistic approaches to reasoning can account in a clear and parsimonious way for data previously argued to falsify them, as well as new, more fine-grained, data. It also illustrates the importance of careful attention to the semantics of language employed in reasoning experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving Robustness of Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions Through Probabilistic Pre- and Post-Processing in Sequential Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Ancell, B. C.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.

2018-03-01

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been increasingly recognized as a promising tool for probabilistic hydrologic predictions. However, little effort has been made to conduct the pre- and post-processing of assimilation experiments, posing a significant challenge in achieving the best performance of hydrologic predictions. This paper presents a unified data assimilation framework for improving the robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions. Statistical pre-processing of assimilation experiments is conducted through the factorial design and analysis to identify the best EnKF settings with maximized performance. After the data assimilation operation, statistical post-processing analysis is also performed through the factorial polynomial chaos expansion to efficiently address uncertainties in hydrologic predictions, as well as to explicitly reveal potential interactions among model parameters and their contributions to the predictive accuracy. In addition, the Gaussian anamorphosis is used to establish a seamless bridge between data assimilation and uncertainty quantification of hydrologic predictions. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments are carried out to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Results suggest that statistical pre- and post-processing of data assimilation experiments provide meaningful insights into the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems and enhance robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions.

Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis

2013-09-01

During FY13, the INL developed an advanced SMR PRA framework which has been described in the report Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974 (April 2013). In this framework, the various areas are considered: Probabilistic models to provide information specific to advanced SMRs Representation of specific SMR design issues such as having co-located modules and passive safety features Use of modern open-source and readily available analysis methods Internal and external events resulting in impacts to safety All-hazards considerations Methods to support the identification of design vulnerabilities Mechanistic and probabilistic data needs to support modelingmore » and tools In order to describe this framework more fully and obtain feedback on the proposed approaches, the INL hosted a technical exchange meeting during August 2013. This report describes the outcomes of that meeting.« less

A probabilistic framework for single-sensor acoustic emission source localization in thin metallic plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimkhanlou, Arvin; Salamone, Salvatore

2017-09-01

Tracking edge-reflected acoustic emission (AE) waves can allow the localization of their sources. Specifically, in bounded isotropic plate structures, only one sensor may be used to perform these source localizations. The primary goal of this paper is to develop a three-step probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainties associated with such single-sensor localizations. According to this framework, a probabilistic approach is first used to estimate the direct distances between AE sources and the sensor. Then, an analytical model is used to reconstruct the envelope of edge-reflected AE signals based on the source-to-sensor distance estimations and their first arrivals. Finally, the correlation between the probabilistically reconstructed envelopes and recorded AE signals are used to estimate confidence contours for the location of AE sources. To validate the proposed framework, Hsu-Nielsen pencil lead break (PLB) tests were performed on the surface as well as the edges of an aluminum plate. The localization results show that the estimated confidence contours surround the actual source locations. In addition, the performance of the framework was tested in a noisy environment simulated by two dummy transducers and an arbitrary wave generator. The results show that in low-noise environments, the shape and size of the confidence contours depend on the sources and their locations. However, at highly noisy environments, the size of the confidence contours monotonically increases with the noise floor. Such probabilistic results suggest that the proposed probabilistic framework could thus provide more comprehensive information regarding the location of AE sources.

Decision making in recurrent neuronal circuits.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-Jing

2008-10-23

Decision making has recently emerged as a central theme in neurophysiological studies of cognition, and experimental and computational work has led to the proposal of a cortical circuit mechanism of elemental decision computations. This mechanism depends on slow recurrent synaptic excitation balanced by fast feedback inhibition, which not only instantiates attractor states for forming categorical choices but also long transients for gradually accumulating evidence in favor of or against alternative options. Such a circuit endowed with reward-dependent synaptic plasticity is able to produce adaptive choice behavior. While decision threshold is a core concept for reaction time tasks, it can be dissociated from a general decision rule. Moreover, perceptual decisions and value-based economic choices are described within a unified framework in which probabilistic choices result from irregular neuronal activity as well as iterative interactions of a decision maker with an uncertain environment or other unpredictable decision makers in a social group.

Computational analysis of conserved RNA secondary structure in transcriptomes and genomes.

PubMed

Eddy, Sean R

2014-01-01

Transcriptomics experiments and computational predictions both enable systematic discovery of new functional RNAs. However, many putative noncoding transcripts arise instead from artifacts and biological noise, and current computational prediction methods have high false positive rates. I discuss prospects for improving computational methods for analyzing and identifying functional RNAs, with a focus on detecting signatures of conserved RNA secondary structure. An interesting new front is the application of chemical and enzymatic experiments that probe RNA structure on a transcriptome-wide scale. I review several proposed approaches for incorporating structure probing data into the computational prediction of RNA secondary structure. Using probabilistic inference formalisms, I show how all these approaches can be unified in a well-principled framework, which in turn allows RNA probing data to be easily integrated into a wide range of analyses that depend on RNA secondary structure inference. Such analyses include homology search and genome-wide detection of new structural RNAs.

The fusion of large scale classified side-scan sonar image mosaics.

PubMed

Reed, Scott; Tena, Ruiz Ioseba; Capus, Chris; Petillot, Yvan

2006-07-01

This paper presents a unified framework for the creation of classified maps of the seafloor from sonar imagery. Significant challenges in photometric correction, classification, navigation and registration, and image fusion are addressed. The techniques described are directly applicable to a range of remote sensing problems. Recent advances in side-scan data correction are incorporated to compensate for the sonar beam pattern and motion of the acquisition platform. The corrected images are segmented using pixel-based textural features and standard classifiers. In parallel, the navigation of the sonar device is processed using Kalman filtering techniques. A simultaneous localization and mapping framework is adopted to improve the navigation accuracy and produce georeferenced mosaics of the segmented side-scan data. These are fused within a Markovian framework and two fusion models are presented. The first uses a voting scheme regularized by an isotropic Markov random field and is applicable when the reliability of each information source is unknown. The Markov model is also used to inpaint regions where no final classification decision can be reached using pixel level fusion. The second model formally introduces the reliability of each information source into a probabilistic model. Evaluation of the two models using both synthetic images and real data from a large scale survey shows significant quantitative and qualitative improvement using the fusion approach.

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

Phase noise suppression for coherent optical block transmission systems: a unified framework.

PubMed

Yang, Chuanchuan; Yang, Feng; Wang, Ziyu

2011-08-29

A unified framework for phase noise suppression is proposed in this paper, which could be applied in any coherent optical block transmission systems, including coherent optical orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (CO-OFDM), coherent optical single-carrier frequency-domain equalization block transmission (CO-SCFDE), etc. Based on adaptive modeling of phase noise, unified observation equations for different coherent optical block transmission systems are constructed, which lead to unified phase noise estimation and suppression. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposal is powerful in mitigating laser phase noise.

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Originally developed in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, probabilistic graphs constitute a general framework for modeling complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The framework consists of three components: 1. Representation of the model as a graph (or network), with nodes depicting random variables in the model (e.g. parameters, states, etc), which are joined together by factors. Factors are local probabilistic or deterministic relations between subsets of variables, which, when multiplied together, yield the joint distribution over all variables. 2. Consistent use of probability theory for quantifying uncertainty, relying on basic rules of probability for assimilating data into the model and expressing unknown variables as a function of observations (via the posterior distribution). 3. Efficient, distributed approximation of the posterior distribution using general-purpose algorithms that exploit model structure encoded in the graph. These attributes make probabilistic graphs potentially useful as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management (and beyond). Conceptually, they can provide a common framework for existing and new probabilistic modeling approaches (e.g. by drawing inspiration from other fields of application), while computationally they can make probabilistic inference feasible in larger hydrological models. The presentation explores, via examples, some of these benefits.

Framework for event-based semidistributed modeling that unifies the SCS-CN method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

2016-09-01

Hydrologists and engineers may choose from a range of semidistributed rainfall-runoff models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL, all of which predict runoff from a distribution of watershed properties. However, these models are not easily compared to event-based data and are missing ready-to-use analytical expressions that are analogous to the SCS-CN method. The SCS-CN method is an event-based model that describes the runoff response with a rainfall-runoff curve that is a function of the cumulative storm rainfall and antecedent wetness condition. Here we develop an event-based probabilistic storage framework and distill semidistributed models into analytical, event-based expressions for describing the rainfall-runoff response. The event-based versions called VICx, PDMx, and TOPMODELx also are extended with a spatial description of the runoff concept of "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff, which occur, respectively, before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. For total storm rainfall and antecedent wetness conditions, the resulting ready-to-use analytical expressions define the source areas (fraction of the watershed) that produce runoff by each mechanism. They also define the probability density function (PDF) representing the spatial variability of runoff depths that are cumulative values for the storm duration, and the average unit area runoff, which describes the so-called runoff curve. These new event-based semidistributed models and the traditional SCS-CN method are unified by the same general expression for the runoff curve. Since the general runoff curve may incorporate different model distributions, it may ease the way for relating such distributions to land use, climate, topography, ecology, geology, and other characteristics.

Queries over Unstructured Data: Probabilistic Methods to the Rescue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarawagi, Sunita

Unstructured data like emails, addresses, invoices, call transcripts, reviews, and press releases are now an integral part of any large enterprise. A challenge of modern business intelligence applications is analyzing and querying data seamlessly across structured and unstructured sources. This requires the development of automated techniques for extracting structured records from text sources and resolving entity mentions in data from various sources. The success of any automated method for extraction and integration depends on how effectively it unifies diverse clues in the unstructured source and in existing structured databases. We argue that statistical learning techniques like Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) provide a accurate, elegant and principled framework for tackling these tasks. Given the inherent noise in real-world sources, it is important to capture the uncertainty of the above operations via imprecise data models. CRFs provide a sound probability distribution over extractions but are not easy to represent and query in a relational framework. We present methods of approximating this distribution to query-friendly row and column uncertainty models. Finally, we present models for representing the uncertainty of de-duplication and algorithms for various Top-K count queries on imprecise duplicates.

A Unified Point Process Probabilistic Framework to Assess Heartbeat Dynamics and Autonomic Cardiovascular Control

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhe; Purdon, Patrick L.; Brown, Emery N.; Barbieri, Riccardo

2012-01-01

In recent years, time-varying inhomogeneous point process models have been introduced for assessment of instantaneous heartbeat dynamics as well as specific cardiovascular control mechanisms and hemodynamics. Assessment of the model’s statistics is established through the Wiener-Volterra theory and a multivariate autoregressive (AR) structure. A variety of instantaneous cardiovascular metrics, such as heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and baroreceptor-cardiac reflex (baroreflex) sensitivity (BRS), are derived within a parametric framework and instantaneously updated with adaptive and local maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Inclusion of second-order non-linearities, with subsequent bispectral quantification in the frequency domain, further allows for definition of instantaneous metrics of non-linearity. We here present a comprehensive review of the devised methods as applied to experimental recordings from healthy subjects during propofol anesthesia. Collective results reveal interesting dynamic trends across the different pharmacological interventions operated within each anesthesia session, confirming the ability of the algorithm to track important changes in cardiorespiratory elicited interactions, and pointing at our mathematical approach as a promising monitoring tool for an accurate, non-invasive assessment in clinical practice. We also discuss the limitations and other alternative modeling strategies of our point process approach. PMID:22375120

WV R-EMAP SMALL WATERSHED CHARACTERIZATION, CLASSIFICATION, AND ASSESSMENT FOR WEST VIRGINIA UTILIZING EMAP DESIGN AND TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

A probabilistic watershed-based framework was developed to encompass wadeable streams within all three ecoregions of West Virginia, with the exclusion noted below. In Phase I of the project (year 2001), we developed and applied a probabilistic watershed-based sampling framework ...

Global Infrasound Association Based on Probabilistic Clutter Categorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, N. S.; Mialle, P.

2015-12-01

The IDC collects waveforms from a global network of infrasound sensors maintained by the IMS, and automatically detects signal onsets and associates them to form event hypotheses. However, a large number of signal onsets are due to local clutter sources such as microbaroms (from standing waves in the oceans), waterfalls, dams, gas flares, surf (ocean breaking waves) etc. These sources are either too diffuse or too local to form events. Worse still, the repetitive nature of this clutter leads to a large number of false event hypotheses due to the random matching of clutter at multiple stations. Previous studies, for example [1], have worked on categorization of clutter using long term trends on detection azimuth, frequency, and amplitude at each station. In this work we continue the same line of reasoning to build a probabilistic model of clutter that is used as part of NET-VISA [2], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The resulting model is a fusion of seismic, hydro-acoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. Notes: The attached figure shows all the unassociated arrivals detected at IMS station I09BR for 2012 distributed by azimuth and center frequency. (The title displays the bandwidth of the kernel density estimate along the azimuth and frequency dimensions).This plot shows multiple micro-barom sources as well as other sources of infrasound clutter. A diverse clutter-field such as this one is quite common for most IMS infrasound stations, and it highlights the dangers of forming events without due consideration of this source of noise. References: [1] Infrasound categorization Towards a statistics-based approach. J. Vergoz, P. Gaillard, A. Le Pichon, N. Brachet, and L. Ceranna. ITW 2011 [2] NET-VISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013.

Distributed Bayesian Computation and Self-Organized Learning in Sheets of Spiking Neurons with Local Lateral Inhibition

PubMed Central

Bill, Johannes; Buesing, Lars; Habenschuss, Stefan; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang; Legenstein, Robert

2015-01-01

During the last decade, Bayesian probability theory has emerged as a framework in cognitive science and neuroscience for describing perception, reasoning and learning of mammals. However, our understanding of how probabilistic computations could be organized in the brain, and how the observed connectivity structure of cortical microcircuits supports these calculations, is rudimentary at best. In this study, we investigate statistical inference and self-organized learning in a spatially extended spiking network model, that accommodates both local competitive and large-scale associative aspects of neural information processing, under a unified Bayesian account. Specifically, we show how the spiking dynamics of a recurrent network with lateral excitation and local inhibition in response to distributed spiking input, can be understood as sampling from a variational posterior distribution of a well-defined implicit probabilistic model. This interpretation further permits a rigorous analytical treatment of experience-dependent plasticity on the network level. Using machine learning theory, we derive update rules for neuron and synapse parameters which equate with Hebbian synaptic and homeostatic intrinsic plasticity rules in a neural implementation. In computer simulations, we demonstrate that the interplay of these plasticity rules leads to the emergence of probabilistic local experts that form distributed assemblies of similarly tuned cells communicating through lateral excitatory connections. The resulting sparse distributed spike code of a well-adapted network carries compressed information on salient input features combined with prior experience on correlations among them. Our theory predicts that the emergence of such efficient representations benefits from network architectures in which the range of local inhibition matches the spatial extent of pyramidal cells that share common afferent input. PMID:26284370

A Unified Framework for Analyzing and Designing for Stationary Arterial Networks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-17

This research aims to develop a unified theoretical and simulation framework for analyzing and designing signals for stationary arterial networks. Existing traffic flow models used in design and analysis of signal control strategies are either too si...

Judgment under uncertainty; a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries.

PubMed

Malekpour, Shirin; Langeveld, Jeroen; Letema, Sammy; Clemens, François; van Lier, Jules B

2013-03-30

This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu, Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various site-specific data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic modeling of bifurcations in single-cell gene expression data using a Bayesian mixture of factor analyzers.

PubMed

Campbell, Kieran R; Yau, Christopher

2017-03-15

Modeling bifurcations in single-cell transcriptomics data has become an increasingly popular field of research. Several methods have been proposed to infer bifurcation structure from such data, but all rely on heuristic non-probabilistic inference. Here we propose the first generative, fully probabilistic model for such inference based on a Bayesian hierarchical mixture of factor analyzers. Our model exhibits competitive performance on large datasets despite implementing full Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and its unique hierarchical prior structure enables automatic determination of genes driving the bifurcation process. We additionally propose an Empirical-Bayes like extension that deals with the high levels of zero-inflation in single-cell RNA-seq data and quantify when such models are useful. We apply or model to both real and simulated single-cell gene expression data and compare the results to existing pseudotime methods. Finally, we discuss both the merits and weaknesses of such a unified, probabilistic approach in the context practical bioinformatics analyses.

Segmentation of the Globus Pallidus Internus Using Probabilistic Diffusion Tractography for Deep Brain Stimulation Targeting in Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Middlebrooks, E H; Tuna, I S; Grewal, S S; Almeida, L; Heckman, M G; Lesser, E R; Foote, K D; Okun, M S; Holanda, V M

2018-06-01

Although globus pallidus internus deep brain stimulation is a widely accepted treatment for Parkinson disease, there is persistent variability in outcomes that is not yet fully understood. In this pilot study, we aimed to investigate the potential role of globus pallidus internus segmentation using probabilistic tractography as a supplement to traditional targeting methods. Eleven patients undergoing globus pallidus internus deep brain stimulation were included in this retrospective analysis. Using multidirection diffusion-weighted MR imaging, we performed probabilistic tractography at all individual globus pallidus internus voxels. Each globus pallidus internus voxel was then assigned to the 1 ROI with the greatest number of propagated paths. On the basis of deep brain stimulation programming settings, the volume of tissue activated was generated for each patient using a finite element method solution. For each patient, the volume of tissue activated within each of the 10 segmented globus pallidus internus regions was calculated and examined for association with a change in the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale, Part III score before and after treatment. Increasing volume of tissue activated was most strongly correlated with a change in the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale, Part III score for the primary motor region (Spearman r = 0.74, P = .010), followed by the supplementary motor area/premotor cortex (Spearman r = 0.47, P = .15). In this pilot study, we assessed a novel method of segmentation of the globus pallidus internus based on probabilistic tractography as a supplement to traditional targeting methods. Our results suggest that our method may be an independent predictor of deep brain stimulation outcome, and evaluation of a larger cohort or prospective study is warranted to validate these findings. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Unified Photo Enhancement by Discovering Aesthetic Communities From Flickr.

PubMed

Hong, Richang; Zhang, Luming; Tao, Dacheng

2016-03-01

Photo enhancement refers to the process of increasing the aesthetic appeal of a photo, such as changing the photo aspect ratio and spatial recomposition. It is a widely used technique in the printing industry, graphic design, and cinematography. In this paper, we propose a unified and socially aware photo enhancement framework which can leverage the experience of photographers with various aesthetic topics (e.g., portrait and landscape). We focus on photos from the image hosting site Flickr, which has 87 million users and to which more than 3.5 million photos are uploaded daily. First, a tagwise regularized topic model is proposed to describe the aesthetic topic of each Flickr user, and coherent and interpretable topics are discovered by leveraging both the visual features and tags of photos. Next, a graph is constructed to describe the similarities in aesthetic topics between the users. Noticeably, densely connected users have similar aesthetic topics, which are categorized into different communities by a dense subgraph mining algorithm. Finally, a probabilistic model is exploited to enhance the aesthetic attractiveness of a test photo by leveraging the photographic experiences of Flickr users from the corresponding communities of that photo. Paired-comparison-based user studies show that our method performs competitively on photo retargeting and recomposition. Moreover, our approach accurately detects aesthetic communities in a photo set crawled from nearly 100000 Flickr users.

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Model for Western Balkans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stejskal, Vladimir; Lorenzo, Francisco; Pousse, Guillaume; Radovanovic, Slavica; Pekevski, Lazo; Dojcinovski, Dragi; Lokin, Petar; Petronijevic, Mira; Sipka, Vesna

2010-05-01

A probabilistic seismic risk model for insurance and reinsurance purposes is presented for an area of Western Balkans, covering former Yugoslavia and Albania. This territory experienced many severe earthquakes during past centuries producing significant damage to many population centres in the region. The highest hazard is related to external Dinarides, namely to the collision zone of the Adriatic plate. The model is based on a unified catalogue for the region and a seismic source model consisting of more than 30 zones covering all the three main structural units - Southern Alps, Dinarides and the south-western margin of the Pannonian Basin. A probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to generate the hazard component of the model. Unique set of damage functions based on both loss experience and engineering assessments is used to convert the modelled ground motion severity into the monetary loss.

Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-01-01

A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.

Control of Distributed Parameter Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

vari- ant of the general Lotka - Volterra model for interspecific competition. The variant described the emergence of one subpopulation from another as a...distribut ion unlimited. I&. ARSTRACT (MAUMUnw2O1 A unified arioroximation framework for Parameter estimation In general linear POE models has been completed...unified approximation framework for parameter estimation in general linear PDE models. This framework has provided the theoretical basis for a number of

Functional dissociation of stimulus intensity encoding and predictive coding of pain in the insula

PubMed Central

Geuter, Stephan; Boll, Sabrina; Eippert, Falk; Büchel, Christian

2017-01-01

The computational principles by which the brain creates a painful experience from nociception are still unknown. Classic theories suggest that cortical regions either reflect stimulus intensity or additive effects of intensity and expectations, respectively. By contrast, predictive coding theories provide a unified framework explaining how perception is shaped by the integration of beliefs about the world with mismatches resulting from the comparison of these beliefs against sensory input. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging during a probabilistic heat pain paradigm, we investigated which computations underlie pain perception. Skin conductance, pupil dilation, and anterior insula responses to cued pain stimuli strictly followed the response patterns hypothesized by the predictive coding model, whereas posterior insula encoded stimulus intensity. This novel functional dissociation of pain processing within the insula together with previously observed alterations in chronic pain offer a novel interpretation of aberrant pain processing as disturbed weighting of predictions and prediction errors. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24770.001 PMID:28524817

Time-variant random interval natural frequency analysis of structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Binhua; Wu, Di; Gao, Wei; Song, Chongmin

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new robust method namely, unified interval Chebyshev-based random perturbation method, to tackle hybrid random interval structural natural frequency problem. In the proposed approach, random perturbation method is implemented to furnish the statistical features (i.e., mean and standard deviation) and Chebyshev surrogate model strategy is incorporated to formulate the statistical information of natural frequency with regards to the interval inputs. The comprehensive analysis framework combines the superiority of both methods in a way that computational cost is dramatically reduced. This presented method is thus capable of investigating the day-to-day based time-variant natural frequency of structures accurately and efficiently under concrete intrinsic creep effect with probabilistic and interval uncertain variables. The extreme bounds of the mean and standard deviation of natural frequency are captured through the embedded optimization strategy within the analysis procedure. Three particularly motivated numerical examples with progressive relationship in perspective of both structure type and uncertainty variables are demonstrated to justify the computational applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Learning Sparse Feature Representations using Probabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-24

Feature Representations usingProbabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets Learning sparse feature representations is a useful instru- ment for solving an...novel framework for the classifi cation of handwritten digits that learns sparse representations using probabilistic quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets... Learning Sparse Feature Representations usingProbabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets Report Title Learning sparse feature representations is a useful

Probabilistic track coverage in cooperative sensor networks.

PubMed

Ferrari, Silvia; Zhang, Guoxian; Wettergren, Thomas A

2010-12-01

The quality of service of a network performing cooperative track detection is represented by the probability of obtaining multiple elementary detections over time along a target track. Recently, two different lines of research, namely, distributed-search theory and geometric transversals, have been used in the literature for deriving the probability of track detection as a function of random and deterministic sensors' positions, respectively. In this paper, we prove that these two approaches are equivalent under the same problem formulation. Also, we present a new performance function that is derived by extending the geometric-transversal approach to the case of random sensors' positions using Poisson flats. As a result, a unified approach for addressing track detection in both deterministic and probabilistic sensor networks is obtained. The new performance function is validated through numerical simulations and is shown to bring about considerable computational savings for both deterministic and probabilistic sensor networks.

A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2014-01-01

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Fuzzy probabilistic design of water distribution networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guangtao; Kapelan, Zoran

2011-05-01

The primary aim of this paper is to present a fuzzy probabilistic approach for optimal design and rehabilitation of water distribution systems, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in a unified framework. The randomness and imprecision in future water consumption are characterized using fuzzy random variables whose realizations are not real but fuzzy numbers, and the nodal head requirements are represented by fuzzy sets, reflecting the imprecision in customers' requirements. The optimal design problem is formulated as a two-objective optimization problem, with minimization of total design cost and maximization of system performance as objectives. The system performance is measured by the fuzzy random reliability, defined as the probability that the fuzzy head requirements are satisfied across all network nodes. The satisfactory degree is represented by necessity measure or belief measure in the sense of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. An efficient algorithm is proposed, within a Monte Carlo procedure, to calculate the fuzzy random system reliability and is effectively combined with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII) to derive the Pareto optimal design solutions. The newly proposed methodology is demonstrated with two case studies: the New York tunnels network and Hanoi network. The results from both cases indicate that the new methodology can effectively accommodate and handle various aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty sources arising from the design process and can provide optimal design solutions that are not only cost-effective but also have higher reliability to cope with severe future uncertainties.

Unbiased, scalable sampling of protein loop conformations from probabilistic priors.

PubMed

Zhang, Yajia; Hauser, Kris

2013-01-01

Protein loops are flexible structures that are intimately tied to function, but understanding loop motion and generating loop conformation ensembles remain significant computational challenges. Discrete search techniques scale poorly to large loops, optimization and molecular dynamics techniques are prone to local minima, and inverse kinematics techniques can only incorporate structural preferences in adhoc fashion. This paper presents Sub-Loop Inverse Kinematics Monte Carlo (SLIKMC), a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for generating conformations of closed loops according to experimentally available, heterogeneous structural preferences. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that the method computes high-scoring conformations of large loops (>10 residues) orders of magnitude faster than standard Monte Carlo and discrete search techniques. Two new developments contribute to the scalability of the new method. First, structural preferences are specified via a probabilistic graphical model (PGM) that links conformation variables, spatial variables (e.g., atom positions), constraints and prior information in a unified framework. The method uses a sparse PGM that exploits locality of interactions between atoms and residues. Second, a novel method for sampling sub-loops is developed to generate statistically unbiased samples of probability densities restricted by loop-closure constraints. Numerical experiments confirm that SLIKMC generates conformation ensembles that are statistically consistent with specified structural preferences. Protein conformations with 100+ residues are sampled on standard PC hardware in seconds. Application to proteins involved in ion-binding demonstrate its potential as a tool for loop ensemble generation and missing structure completion.

Unbiased, scalable sampling of protein loop conformations from probabilistic priors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Protein loops are flexible structures that are intimately tied to function, but understanding loop motion and generating loop conformation ensembles remain significant computational challenges. Discrete search techniques scale poorly to large loops, optimization and molecular dynamics techniques are prone to local minima, and inverse kinematics techniques can only incorporate structural preferences in adhoc fashion. This paper presents Sub-Loop Inverse Kinematics Monte Carlo (SLIKMC), a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for generating conformations of closed loops according to experimentally available, heterogeneous structural preferences. Results Our simulation experiments demonstrate that the method computes high-scoring conformations of large loops (>10 residues) orders of magnitude faster than standard Monte Carlo and discrete search techniques. Two new developments contribute to the scalability of the new method. First, structural preferences are specified via a probabilistic graphical model (PGM) that links conformation variables, spatial variables (e.g., atom positions), constraints and prior information in a unified framework. The method uses a sparse PGM that exploits locality of interactions between atoms and residues. Second, a novel method for sampling sub-loops is developed to generate statistically unbiased samples of probability densities restricted by loop-closure constraints. Conclusion Numerical experiments confirm that SLIKMC generates conformation ensembles that are statistically consistent with specified structural preferences. Protein conformations with 100+ residues are sampled on standard PC hardware in seconds. Application to proteins involved in ion-binding demonstrate its potential as a tool for loop ensemble generation and missing structure completion. PMID:24565175

Unified Program Design: Organizing Existing Programming Models, Delivery Options, and Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubenstein, Lisa DaVia; Ridgley, Lisa M.

2017-01-01

A persistent problem in the field of gifted education has been the lack of categorization and delineation of gifted programming options. To address this issue, we propose Unified Program Design as a structural framework for gifted program models. This framework defines gifted programs as the combination of delivery methods and curriculum models.…

A Unified Framework for Complex Networks with Degree Trichotomy Based on Markov Chains.

PubMed

Hui, David Shui Wing; Chen, Yi-Chao; Zhang, Gong; Wu, Weijie; Chen, Guanrong; Lui, John C S; Li, Yingtao

2017-06-16

This paper establishes a Markov chain model as a unified framework for describing the evolution processes in complex networks. The unique feature of the proposed model is its capability in addressing the formation mechanism that can reflect the "trichotomy" observed in degree distributions, based on which closed-form solutions can be derived. Important special cases of the proposed unified framework are those classical models, including Poisson, Exponential, Power-law distributed networks. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate a good match of the proposed model with real datasets, showing its superiority over the classical models. Implications of the model to various applications including citation analysis, online social networks, and vehicular networks design, are also discussed in the paper.

Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networksmore » and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.« less

Probabilistic combination of static and dynamic gait features for verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, Alex I.; Nixon, Mark S.

2005-03-01

This paper describes a novel probabilistic framework for biometric identification and data fusion. Based on intra and inter-class variation extracted from training data, posterior probabilities describing the similarity between two feature vectors may be directly calculated from the data using the logistic function and Bayes rule. Using a large publicly available database we show the two imbalanced gait modalities may be fused using this framework. All fusion methods tested provide an improvement over the best modality, with the weighted sum rule giving the best performance, hence showing that highly imbalanced classifiers may be fused in a probabilistic setting; improving not only the performance, but also generalized application capability.

A unified structural/terminological interoperability framework based on LexEVS: application to TRANSFoRm.

PubMed

Ethier, Jean-François; Dameron, Olivier; Curcin, Vasa; McGilchrist, Mark M; Verheij, Robert A; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Taweel, Adel; Delaney, Brendan C; Burgun, Anita

2013-01-01

Biomedical research increasingly relies on the integration of information from multiple heterogeneous data sources. Despite the fact that structural and terminological aspects of interoperability are interdependent and rely on a common set of requirements, current efforts typically address them in isolation. We propose a unified ontology-based knowledge framework to facilitate interoperability between heterogeneous sources, and investigate if using the LexEVS terminology server is a viable implementation method. We developed a framework based on an ontology, the general information model (GIM), to unify structural models and terminologies, together with relevant mapping sets. This allowed a uniform access to these resources within LexEVS to facilitate interoperability by various components and data sources from implementing architectures. Our unified framework has been tested in the context of the EU Framework Program 7 TRANSFoRm project, where it was used to achieve data integration in a retrospective diabetes cohort study. The GIM was successfully instantiated in TRANSFoRm as the clinical data integration model, and necessary mappings were created to support effective information retrieval for software tools in the project. We present a novel, unifying approach to address interoperability challenges in heterogeneous data sources, by representing structural and semantic models in one framework. Systems using this architecture can rely solely on the GIM that abstracts over both the structure and coding. Information models, terminologies and mappings are all stored in LexEVS and can be accessed in a uniform manner (implementing the HL7 CTS2 service functional model). The system is flexible and should reduce the effort needed from data sources personnel for implementing and managing the integration.

A unified structural/terminological interoperability framework based on LexEVS: application to TRANSFoRm

PubMed Central

Ethier, Jean-François; Dameron, Olivier; Curcin, Vasa; McGilchrist, Mark M; Verheij, Robert A; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Taweel, Adel; Delaney, Brendan C; Burgun, Anita

2013-01-01

Objective Biomedical research increasingly relies on the integration of information from multiple heterogeneous data sources. Despite the fact that structural and terminological aspects of interoperability are interdependent and rely on a common set of requirements, current efforts typically address them in isolation. We propose a unified ontology-based knowledge framework to facilitate interoperability between heterogeneous sources, and investigate if using the LexEVS terminology server is a viable implementation method. Materials and methods We developed a framework based on an ontology, the general information model (GIM), to unify structural models and terminologies, together with relevant mapping sets. This allowed a uniform access to these resources within LexEVS to facilitate interoperability by various components and data sources from implementing architectures. Results Our unified framework has been tested in the context of the EU Framework Program 7 TRANSFoRm project, where it was used to achieve data integration in a retrospective diabetes cohort study. The GIM was successfully instantiated in TRANSFoRm as the clinical data integration model, and necessary mappings were created to support effective information retrieval for software tools in the project. Conclusions We present a novel, unifying approach to address interoperability challenges in heterogeneous data sources, by representing structural and semantic models in one framework. Systems using this architecture can rely solely on the GIM that abstracts over both the structure and coding. Information models, terminologies and mappings are all stored in LexEVS and can be accessed in a uniform manner (implementing the HL7 CTS2 service functional model). The system is flexible and should reduce the effort needed from data sources personnel for implementing and managing the integration. PMID:23571850

Statistical Analyses for Probabilistic Assessments of the Reactor Pressure Vessel Structural Integrity: Building a Master Curve on an Extract of the 'Euro' Fracture Toughness Dataset, Controlling Statistical Uncertainty for Both Mono-Temperature and multi-temperature tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josse, Florent; Lefebvre, Yannick; Todeschini, Patrick

2006-07-01

Assessing the structural integrity of a nuclear Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized-thermal-shock (PTS) transients is extremely important to safety. In addition to conventional deterministic calculations to confirm RPV integrity, Electricite de France (EDF) carries out probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic analyses are interesting because some key variables, albeit conventionally taken at conservative values, can be modeled more accurately through statistical variability. One variable which significantly affects RPV structural integrity assessment is cleavage fracture initiation toughness. The reference fracture toughness method currently in use at EDF is the RCCM and ASME Code lower-bound K{sub IC} based on the indexing parameter RT{submore » NDT}. However, in order to quantify the toughness scatter for probabilistic analyses, the master curve method is being analyzed at present. Furthermore, the master curve method is a direct means of evaluating fracture toughness based on K{sub JC} data. In the framework of the master curve investigation undertaken by EDF, this article deals with the following two statistical items: building a master curve from an extract of a fracture toughness dataset (from the European project 'Unified Reference Fracture Toughness Design curves for RPV Steels') and controlling statistical uncertainty for both mono-temperature and multi-temperature tests. Concerning the first point, master curve temperature dependence is empirical in nature. To determine the 'original' master curve, Wallin postulated that a unified description of fracture toughness temperature dependence for ferritic steels is possible, and used a large number of data corresponding to nuclear-grade pressure vessel steels and welds. Our working hypothesis is that some ferritic steels may behave in slightly different ways. Therefore we focused exclusively on the basic french reactor vessel metal of types A508 Class 3 and A 533 grade B Class 1, taking the sampling level and direction into account as well as the test specimen type. As for the second point, the emphasis is placed on the uncertainties in applying the master curve approach. For a toughness dataset based on different specimens of a single product, application of the master curve methodology requires the statistical estimation of one parameter: the reference temperature T{sub 0}. Because of the limited number of specimens, estimation of this temperature is uncertain. The ASTM standard provides a rough evaluation of this statistical uncertainty through an approximate confidence interval. In this paper, a thorough study is carried out to build more meaningful confidence intervals (for both mono-temperature and multi-temperature tests). These results ensure better control over uncertainty, and allow rigorous analysis of the impact of its influencing factors: the number of specimens and the temperatures at which they have been tested. (authors)« less

A robust multi-kernel change detection framework for detecting leaf beetle defoliation using Landsat 7 ETM+ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anees, Asim; Aryal, Jagannath; O'Reilly, Małgorzata M.; Gale, Timothy J.; Wardlaw, Tim

2016-12-01

A robust non-parametric framework, based on multiple Radial Basic Function (RBF) kernels, is proposed in this study, for detecting land/forest cover changes using Landsat 7 ETM+ images. One of the widely used frameworks is to find change vectors (difference image) and use a supervised classifier to differentiate between change and no-change. The Bayesian Classifiers e.g. Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC), Naive Bayes (NB), are widely used probabilistic classifiers which assume parametric models, e.g. Gaussian function, for the class conditional distributions. However, their performance can be limited if the data set deviates from the assumed model. The proposed framework exploits the useful properties of Least Squares Probabilistic Classifier (LSPC) formulation i.e. non-parametric and probabilistic nature, to model class posterior probabilities of the difference image using a linear combination of a large number of Gaussian kernels. To this end, a simple technique, based on 10-fold cross-validation is also proposed for tuning model parameters automatically instead of selecting a (possibly) suboptimal combination from pre-specified lists of values. The proposed framework has been tested and compared with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and NB for detection of defoliation, caused by leaf beetles (Paropsisterna spp.) in Eucalyptus nitens and Eucalyptus globulus plantations of two test areas, in Tasmania, Australia, using raw bands and band combination indices of Landsat 7 ETM+. It was observed that due to multi-kernel non-parametric formulation and probabilistic nature, the LSPC outperforms parametric NB with Gaussian assumption in change detection framework, with Overall Accuracy (OA) ranging from 93.6% (κ = 0.87) to 97.4% (κ = 0.94) against 85.3% (κ = 0.69) to 93.4% (κ = 0.85), and is more robust to changing data distributions. Its performance was comparable to SVM, with added advantages of being probabilistic and capable of handling multi-class problems naturally with its original formulation.

Incubation, Insight, and Creative Problem Solving: A Unified Theory and a Connectionist Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helie, Sebastien; Sun, Ron

2010-01-01

This article proposes a unified framework for understanding creative problem solving, namely, the explicit-implicit interaction theory. This new theory of creative problem solving constitutes an attempt at providing a more unified explanation of relevant phenomena (in part by reinterpreting/integrating various fragmentary existing theories of…

Another Initiative? Where Does it Fit? A Unifying Framework and an Integrated Infrastructure for Schools to Address Barriers to Learning and Promote Healthy Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Mental Health in Schools at UCLA, 2005

2005-01-01

This report was developed to highlight the current state of affairs and illustrate the value of a unifying framework and integrated infrastructure for the many initiatives, projects, programs, and services schools pursue in addressing barriers to learning and promoting healthy development. Specifically, it highlights how initiatives can be…

Probabilistic Assessment of Planet Habitability and Biosignatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bixel, A.; Apai, D.

2017-11-01

We have computed probabilistic constraints on the bulk properties of Proxima Cen b informed by priors from Kepler and RV follow-up. We will extend this approach into a Bayesian framework to assess the habitability of directly imaged planets.

Toward a unifying framework for evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Paixão, Tiago; Badkobeh, Golnaz; Barton, Nick; Çörüş, Doğan; Dang, Duc-Cuong; Friedrich, Tobias; Lehre, Per Kristian; Sudholt, Dirk; Sutton, Andrew M; Trubenová, Barbora

2015-10-21

The theory of population genetics and evolutionary computation have been evolving separately for nearly 30 years. Many results have been independently obtained in both fields and many others are unique to its respective field. We aim to bridge this gap by developing a unifying framework for evolutionary processes that allows both evolutionary algorithms and population genetics models to be cast in the same formal framework. The framework we present here decomposes the evolutionary process into its several components in order to facilitate the identification of similarities between different models. In particular, we propose a classification of evolutionary operators based on the defining properties of the different components. We cast several commonly used operators from both fields into this common framework. Using this, we map different evolutionary and genetic algorithms to different evolutionary regimes and identify candidates with the most potential for the translation of results between the fields. This provides a unified description of evolutionary processes and represents a stepping stone towards new tools and results to both fields. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Unified Classification Framework for FP, DP and CP Data at X-Band in Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lei; Zhang, Hong; Li, Hhongzhong; Wang, Chao

2015-04-01

The main objective of this paper is to introduce an unified framework for crop classification in Southern China using data in fully polarimetric (FP), dual-pol (DP) and compact polarimetric (CP) modes. The TerraSAR-X data acquired over the Leizhou Peninsula, South China are used in our experiments. The study site involves four main crops (rice, banana, sugarcane eucalyptus). Through exploring the similarities between data in these three modes, a knowledge-based characteristic space is created and the unified framework is presented. The overall classification accuracies for data in the FP, coherent HH/VV are about 95%, and is about 91% in CP modes, which suggests that the proposed classification scheme is effective and promising. Compared with the Wishart Maximum Likelihood (ML) classifier, the proposed method exhibits higher classification accuracy.

Certainty grids for mobile robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moravec, H. P.

1987-01-01

A numerical representation of uncertain and incomplete sensor knowledge called Certainty Grids has been used successfully in several mobile robot control programs, and has proven itself to be a powerful and efficient unifying solution for sensor fusion, motion planning, landmark identification, and many other central problems. Researchers propose to build a software framework running on processors onboard the new Uranus mobile robot that will maintain a probabilistic, geometric map of the robot's surroundings as it moves. The certainty grid representation will allow this map to be incrementally updated in a uniform way from various sources including sonar, stereo vision, proximity and contact sensors. The approach can correctly model the fuzziness of each reading, while at the same time combining multiple measurements to produce sharper map features, and it can deal correctly with uncertainties in the robot's motion. The map will be used by planning programs to choose clear paths, identify locations (by correlating maps), identify well-known and insufficiently sensed terrain, and perhaps identify objects by shape. The certainty grid representation can be extended in the same dimension and used to detect and track moving objects.

Unified nano-mechanics based probabilistic theory of quasibrittle and brittle structures: II. Fatigue crack growth, lifetime and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Jia-Liang; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2011-07-01

This paper extends the theoretical framework presented in the preceding Part I to the lifetime distribution of quasibrittle structures failing at the fracture of one representative volume element under constant amplitude fatigue. The probability distribution of the critical stress amplitude is derived for a given number of cycles and a given minimum-to-maximum stress ratio. The physical mechanism underlying the Paris law for fatigue crack growth is explained under certain plausible assumptions about the damage accumulation in the cyclic fracture process zone at the tip of subcritical crack. This law is then used to relate the probability distribution of critical stress amplitude to the probability distribution of fatigue lifetime. The theory naturally yields a power-law relation for the stress-life curve (S-N curve), which agrees with Basquin's law. Furthermore, the theory indicates that, for quasibrittle structures, the S-N curve must be size dependent. Finally, physical explanation is provided to the experimentally observed systematic deviations of lifetime histograms of various ceramics and bones from the Weibull distribution, and their close fits by the present theory are demonstrated.

Bayesian approach to transforming public gene expression repositories into disease diagnosis databases.

PubMed

Huang, Haiyan; Liu, Chun-Chi; Zhou, Xianghong Jasmine

2010-04-13

The rapid accumulation of gene expression data has offered unprecedented opportunities to study human diseases. The National Center for Biotechnology Information Gene Expression Omnibus is currently the largest database that systematically documents the genome-wide molecular basis of diseases. However, thus far, this resource has been far from fully utilized. This paper describes the first study to transform public gene expression repositories into an automated disease diagnosis database. Particularly, we have developed a systematic framework, including a two-stage Bayesian learning approach, to achieve the diagnosis of one or multiple diseases for a query expression profile along a hierarchical disease taxonomy. Our approach, including standardizing cross-platform gene expression data and heterogeneous disease annotations, allows analyzing both sources of information in a unified probabilistic system. A high level of overall diagnostic accuracy was shown by cross validation. It was also demonstrated that the power of our method can increase significantly with the continued growth of public gene expression repositories. Finally, we showed how our disease diagnosis system can be used to characterize complex phenotypes and to construct a disease-drug connectivity map.

Regional flux analysis for discovering and quantifying anatomical changes: An application to the brain morphometry in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Lorenzi, M; Ayache, N; Pennec, X

2015-07-15

In this study we introduce the regional flux analysis, a novel approach to deformation based morphometry based on the Helmholtz decomposition of deformations parameterized by stationary velocity fields. We use the scalar pressure map associated to the irrotational component of the deformation to discover the critical regions of volume change. These regions are used to consistently quantify the associated measure of volume change by the probabilistic integration of the flux of the longitudinal deformations across the boundaries. The presented framework unifies voxel-based and regional approaches, and robustly describes the volume changes at both group-wise and subject-specific level as a spatial process governed by consistently defined regions. Our experiments on the large cohorts of the ADNI dataset show that the regional flux analysis is a powerful and flexible instrument for the study of Alzheimer's disease in a wide range of scenarios: cross-sectional deformation based morphometry, longitudinal discovery and quantification of group-wise volume changes, and statistically powered and robust quantification of hippocampal and ventricular atrophy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

The Unified Behavior Framework for the Simulation of Autonomous Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

1980s, researchers have designed a variety of robot control architectures intending to imbue robots with some degree of autonomy. A recently developed ...Identification Friend or Foe viii THE UNIFIED BEHAVIOR FRAMEWORK FOR THE SIMULATION OF AUTONOMOUS AGENTS I. Introduction The development of autonomy has...room for research by utilizing methods like simulation and modeling that consume less time and fewer monetary resources. A recently developed reactive

A Discounting Framework for Choice With Delayed and Probabilistic Rewards

PubMed Central

Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

2005-01-01

When choosing between delayed or uncertain outcomes, individuals discount the value of such outcomes on the basis of the expected time to or the likelihood of their occurrence. In an integrative review of the expanding experimental literature on discounting, the authors show that although the same form of hyperbola-like function describes discounting of both delayed and probabilistic outcomes, a variety of recent findings are inconsistent with a single-process account. The authors also review studies that compare discounting in different populations and discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings. The present effort illustrates the value of studying choice involving both delayed and probabilistic outcomes within a general discounting framework that uses similar experimental procedures and a common analytical approach. PMID:15367080

Tractography-Based Score for Learning Effective Connectivity From Multimodal Imaging Data Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun K

2018-05-01

Effective connectivity (EC) is the methodology for determining functional-integration among the functionally active segregated regions of the brain. By definition EC is "the causal influence exerted by one neuronal group on another" which is constrained by anatomical connectivity (AC) (axonal connections). AC is necessary for EC but does not fully determine it, because synaptic communication occurs dynamically in a context-dependent fashion. Although there is a vast emerging evidence of structure-function relationship using multimodal imaging studies, till date only a few studies have done joint modeling of the two modalities: functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We aim to propose a unified probabilistic framework that combines information from both sources to learn EC using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). DBNs are probabilistic graphical temporal models that learn EC in an exploratory fashion. Specifically, we propose a novel anatomically informed (AI) score that evaluates fitness of a given connectivity structure to both DTI and fMRI data simultaneously. The AI score is employed in structure learning of DBN given the data. Experiments with synthetic-data demonstrate the face validity of structure learning with our AI score over anatomically uninformed counterpart. Moreover, real-data results are cross-validated by performing classification-experiments. EC inferred on real fMRI-DTI datasets is found to be consistent with previous literature and show promising results in light of the AC present as compared to other classically used techniques such as Granger-causality. Multimodal analyses provide a more reliable basis for differentiating brain under abnormal/diseased conditions than the single modality analysis.

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY TO NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for the assessment of groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in two adjacent agricultural watersheds in the Mid-Altantic Coastal Plain. Indices for estimating streams vulnerability to pollutants' load from the surficial aquifer...

Robopedia: Leveraging Sensorpedia for Web-Enabled Robot Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Resseguie, David R

There is a growing interest in building Internetscale sensor networks that integrate sensors from around the world into a single unified system. In contrast, robotics application development has primarily focused on building specialized systems. These specialized systems take scalability and reliability into consideration, but generally neglect exploring the key components required to build a large scale system. Integrating robotic applications with Internet-scale sensor networks will unify specialized robotics applications and provide answers to large scale implementation concerns. We focus on utilizing Internet-scale sensor network technology to construct a framework for unifying robotic systems. Our framework web-enables a surveillance robot smore » sensor observations and provides a webinterface to the robot s actuators. This lets robots seamlessly integrate into web applications. In addition, the framework eliminates most prerequisite robotics knowledge, allowing for the creation of general web-based robotics applications. The framework also provides mechanisms to create applications that can interface with any robot. Frameworks such as this one are key to solving large scale mobile robotics implementation problems. We provide an overview of previous Internetscale sensor networks, Sensorpedia (an ad-hoc Internet-scale sensor network), our framework for integrating robots with Sensorpedia, two applications which illustrate our frameworks ability to support general web-based robotic control, and offer experimental results that illustrate our framework s scalability, feasibility, and resource requirements.« less

Modelling Trial-by-Trial Changes in the Mismatch Negativity

PubMed Central

Lieder, Falk; Daunizeau, Jean; Garrido, Marta I.; Friston, Karl J.; Stephan, Klaas E.

2013-01-01

The mismatch negativity (MMN) is a differential brain response to violations of learned regularities. It has been used to demonstrate that the brain learns the statistical structure of its environment and predicts future sensory inputs. However, the algorithmic nature of these computations and the underlying neurobiological implementation remain controversial. This article introduces a mathematical framework with which competing ideas about the computational quantities indexed by MMN responses can be formalized and tested against single-trial EEG data. This framework was applied to five major theories of the MMN, comparing their ability to explain trial-by-trial changes in MMN amplitude. Three of these theories (predictive coding, model adjustment, and novelty detection) were formalized by linking the MMN to different manifestations of the same computational mechanism: approximate Bayesian inference according to the free-energy principle. We thereby propose a unifying view on three distinct theories of the MMN. The relative plausibility of each theory was assessed against empirical single-trial MMN amplitudes acquired from eight healthy volunteers in a roving oddball experiment. Models based on the free-energy principle provided more plausible explanations of trial-by-trial changes in MMN amplitude than models representing the two more traditional theories (change detection and adaptation). Our results suggest that the MMN reflects approximate Bayesian learning of sensory regularities, and that the MMN-generating process adjusts a probabilistic model of the environment according to prediction errors. PMID:23436989

Attention in a Bayesian Framework

PubMed Central

Whiteley, Louise; Sahani, Maneesh

2012-01-01

The behavioral phenomena of sensory attention are thought to reflect the allocation of a limited processing resource, but there is little consensus on the nature of the resource or why it should be limited. Here we argue that a fundamental bottleneck emerges naturally within Bayesian models of perception, and use this observation to frame a new computational account of the need for, and action of, attention – unifying diverse attentional phenomena in a way that goes beyond previous inferential, probabilistic and Bayesian models. Attentional effects are most evident in cluttered environments, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey “prior” information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its selective and integrative roles, and thus cannot be easily extended to complex environments. We suggest that the resource bottleneck stems from the computational intractability of exact perceptual inference in complex settings, and that attention reflects an evolved mechanism for approximate inference which can be shaped to refine the local accuracy of perception. We show that this approach extends the simple picture of attention as prior, so as to provide a unified and computationally driven account of both selective and integrative attentional phenomena. PMID:22712010

A unified bond theory, probabilistic meso-scale modeling, and experimental validation of deformed steel rebar in normal strength concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglin

Bond between deformed rebar and concrete is affected by rebar deformation pattern, concrete properties, concrete confinement, and rebar-concrete interfacial properties. Two distinct groups of bond models were traditionally developed based on the dominant effects of concrete splitting and near-interface shear-off failures. Their accuracy highly depended upon the test data sets selected in analysis and calibration. In this study, a unified bond model is proposed and developed based on an analogy to the indentation problem around the rib front of deformed rebar. This mechanics-based model can take into account the combined effect of concrete splitting and interface shear-off failures, resulting in average bond strengths for all practical scenarios. To understand the fracture process associated with bond failure, a probabilistic meso-scale model of concrete is proposed and its sensitivity to interface and confinement strengths are investigated. Both the mechanical and finite element models are validated with the available test data sets and are superior to existing models in prediction of average bond strength (< 6% error) and crack spacing (< 6% error). The validated bond model is applied to derive various interrelations among concrete crushing, concrete splitting, interfacial behavior, and the rib spacing-to-height ratio of deformed rebar. It can accurately predict the transition of failure modes from concrete splitting to rebar pullout and predict the effect of rebar surface characteristics as the rib spacing-to-height ratio increases. Based on the unified theory, a global bond model is proposed and developed by introducing bond-slip laws, and validated with testing of concrete beams with spliced reinforcement, achieving a load capacity prediction error of less than 26%. The optimal rebar parameters and concrete cover in structural designs can be derived from this study.

Robot Path Planning in Uncertain Environments: A Language-Measure-Theoretic Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

in the framework of probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA) and language measure from a control-theoretic perspective. The proposed concept has been...DOI: 10.1115/1.4027876] Keywords: path planning, language measure, probabilistic finite state automata 1 Motivation and Introduction In general

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing Ecological Risk-Based Evidence

EPA Science Inventory

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for e...

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells

PubMed Central

Cheung, Allen

2016-01-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population readout of a set of probabilistic spatial computations. PMID:27792723

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.

2016-05-01

Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize uncertainty across model ensembles. Here, we highlight the need for formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling with expert judgement in order to facilitate characterization of uncertainty in a reproducible, consistent and transparent fashion. As an example, we use probabilistic inversion, a well-established technique used in many other applications outside of climate change, to fuse two recent analyses of twenty-first century Antarctic ice loss. Probabilistic inversion is but one of many possible approaches to formalizing the role of expert judgement, and the Antarctic ice sheet is only one possible climate-related application. We recommend indicators or signposts that characterize successful science-based uncertainty quantification.

A novel probabilistic framework for event-based speech recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juneja, Amit; Espy-Wilson, Carol

2003-10-01

One of the reasons for unsatisfactory performance of the state-of-the-art automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems is the inferior acoustic modeling of low-level acoustic-phonetic information in the speech signal. An acoustic-phonetic approach to ASR, on the other hand, explicitly targets linguistic information in the speech signal, but such a system for continuous speech recognition (CSR) is not known to exist. A probabilistic and statistical framework for CSR based on the idea of the representation of speech sounds by bundles of binary valued articulatory phonetic features is proposed. Multiple probabilistic sequences of linguistically motivated landmarks are obtained using binary classifiers of manner phonetic features-syllabic, sonorant and continuant-and the knowledge-based acoustic parameters (APs) that are acoustic correlates of those features. The landmarks are then used for the extraction of knowledge-based APs for source and place phonetic features and their binary classification. Probabilistic landmark sequences are constrained using manner class language models for isolated or connected word recognition. The proposed method could overcome the disadvantages encountered by the early acoustic-phonetic knowledge-based systems that led the ASR community to switch to systems highly dependent on statistical pattern analysis methods and probabilistic language or grammar models.

Towards a multilevel cognitive probabilistic representation of space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapus, Adriana; Vasudevan, Shrihari; Siegwart, Roland

2005-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of perception and representation of space for a mobile agent. A probabilistic hierarchical framework is suggested as a solution to this problem. The method proposed is a combination of probabilistic belief with "Object Graph Models" (OGM). The world is viewed from a topological optic, in terms of objects and relationships between them. The hierarchical representation that we propose permits an efficient and reliable modeling of the information that the mobile agent would perceive from its environment. The integration of both navigational and interactional capabilities through efficient representation is also addressed. Experiments on a set of images taken from the real world that validate the approach are reported. This framework draws on the general understanding of human cognition and perception and contributes towards the overall efforts to build cognitive robot companions.

An Instructional Module on Mokken Scale Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wind, Stefanie A.

2017-01-01

Mokken scale analysis (MSA) is a probabilistic-nonparametric approach to item response theory (IRT) that can be used to evaluate fundamental measurement properties with less strict assumptions than parametric IRT models. This instructional module provides an introduction to MSA as a probabilistic-nonparametric framework in which to explore…

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Hopkins, D. A.

1989-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures at Lewis Research Center is presented. Three elements of the research program are: (1) composite load spectra methodology; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methodology; and (3) probabilistic structural analysis application. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) turbine blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the space shuttle main engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; and (3) evaluation of the failure probability. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability of hot engine structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic/reliability framework.

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

1990-01-01

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

An Unified Multiscale Framework for Planar, Surface, and Curve Skeletonization.

PubMed

Jalba, Andrei C; Sobiecki, Andre; Telea, Alexandru C

2016-01-01

Computing skeletons of 2D shapes, and medial surface and curve skeletons of 3D shapes, is a challenging task. In particular, there is no unified framework that detects all types of skeletons using a single model, and also produces a multiscale representation which allows to progressively simplify, or regularize, all skeleton types. In this paper, we present such a framework. We model skeleton detection and regularization by a conservative mass transport process from a shape's boundary to its surface skeleton, next to its curve skeleton, and finally to the shape center. The resulting density field can be thresholded to obtain a multiscale representation of progressively simplified surface, or curve, skeletons. We detail a numerical implementation of our framework which is demonstrably stable and has high computational efficiency. We demonstrate our framework on several complex 2D and 3D shapes.

Enhancing the Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems Using a Common Computational Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, J. C.; Filz, G. M.

2016-12-01

As modern societies become more complex, critical interdependent infrastructure systems become more likely to fail under stress unless they are designed and implemented to be resilient. Hurricane Katrina clearly demonstrated the catastrophic and as yet unpredictable consequences of such failures. Resilient infrastructure systems maintain the flow of goods and services in the face of a broad range of natural and manmade hazards. In this presentation, we illustrate a generic computational framework to facilitate high-level decision-making about how to invest scarce resources most effectively to enhance resilience in coastal protection, transportation, and the economy of a region. Coastal Louisiana, our study area, has experienced the catastrophic effects of several land-falling hurricanes in recent years. In this project, we implement and further refine three process models (a coastal protection model, a transportation model, and an economic model) for the coastal Louisiana region. We upscale essential mechanistic features of the three detailed process models to the systems level and integrate the three reduced-order systems models in a modular fashion. We also evaluate the proposed approach in annual workshops with input from stakeholders. Based on stakeholder inputs, we derive a suite of goals, targets, and indicators for evaluating resilience at the systems level, and assess and enhance resilience using several deterministic scenarios. The unifying framework will be able to accommodate the different spatial and temporal scales that are appropriate for each model. We combine our generic computational framework, which encompasses the entire system of systems, with the targets, and indicators needed to systematically meet our chosen resilience goals. We will start with targets that focus on technical and economic systems, but future work will ensure that targets and indicators are extended to other dimensions of resilience including those in the environmental and social systems. The overall model can be used to optimize decision making in a probabilistic risk-based framework.

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

PubMed

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Unifying Model-Based and Reactive Programming within a Model-Based Executive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Brian C.; Gupta, Vineet; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Real-time, model-based, deduction has recently emerged as a vital component in AI's tool box for developing highly autonomous reactive systems. Yet one of the current hurdles towards developing model-based reactive systems is the number of methods simultaneously employed, and their corresponding melange of programming and modeling languages. This paper offers an important step towards unification. We introduce RMPL, a rich modeling language that combines probabilistic, constraint-based modeling with reactive programming constructs, while offering a simple semantics in terms of hidden state Markov processes. We introduce probabilistic, hierarchical constraint automata (PHCA), which allow Markov processes to be expressed in a compact representation that preserves the modularity of RMPL programs. Finally, a model-based executive, called Reactive Burton is described that exploits this compact encoding to perform efficIent simulation, belief state update and control sequence generation.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

2012-01-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Shiao, Michael

1990-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model.

PubMed

Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S; Breen, Lauren J; Witt, Regina R; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

2016-01-01

Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care.

Fully probabilistic control design in an adaptive critic framework.

PubMed

Herzallah, Randa; Kárný, Miroslav

2011-12-01

Optimal stochastic controller pushes the closed-loop behavior as close as possible to the desired one. The fully probabilistic design (FPD) uses probabilistic description of the desired closed loop and minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence of the closed-loop description to the desired one. Practical exploitation of the fully probabilistic design control theory continues to be hindered by the computational complexities involved in numerically solving the associated stochastic dynamic programming problem; in particular, very hard multivariate integration and an approximate interpolation of the involved multivariate functions. This paper proposes a new fully probabilistic control algorithm that uses the adaptive critic methods to circumvent the need for explicitly evaluating the optimal value function, thereby dramatically reducing computational requirements. This is a main contribution of this paper. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Unified Framework for Association Analysis with Multiple Related Phenotypes

PubMed Central

Stephens, Matthew

2013-01-01

We consider the problem of assessing associations between multiple related outcome variables, and a single explanatory variable of interest. This problem arises in many settings, including genetic association studies, where the explanatory variable is genotype at a genetic variant. We outline a framework for conducting this type of analysis, based on Bayesian model comparison and model averaging for multivariate regressions. This framework unifies several common approaches to this problem, and includes both standard univariate and standard multivariate association tests as special cases. The framework also unifies the problems of testing for associations and explaining associations – that is, identifying which outcome variables are associated with genotype. This provides an alternative to the usual, but conceptually unsatisfying, approach of resorting to univariate tests when explaining and interpreting significant multivariate findings. The method is computationally tractable genome-wide for modest numbers of phenotypes (e.g. 5–10), and can be applied to summary data, without access to raw genotype and phenotype data. We illustrate the methods on both simulated examples, and to a genome-wide association study of blood lipid traits where we identify 18 potential novel genetic associations that were not identified by univariate analyses of the same data. PMID:23861737

Conceptualising paediatric health disparities: a metanarrative systematic review and unified conceptual framework.

PubMed

Ridgeway, Jennifer L; Wang, Zhen; Finney Rutten, Lila J; van Ryn, Michelle; Griffin, Joan M; Murad, M Hassan; Asiedu, Gladys B; Egginton, Jason S; Beebe, Timothy J

2017-08-04

There exists a paucity of work in the development and testing of theoretical models specific to childhood health disparities even though they have been linked to the prevalence of adult health disparities including high rates of chronic disease. We conducted a systematic review and thematic analysis of existing models of health disparities specific to children to inform development of a unified conceptual framework. We systematically reviewed articles reporting theoretical or explanatory models of disparities on a range of outcomes related to child health. We searched Ovid Medline In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus (database inception to 9 July 2015). A metanarrative approach guided the analysis process. A total of 48 studies presenting 48 models were included. This systematic review found multiple models but no consensus on one approach. However, we did discover a fair amount of overlap, such that the 48 models reviewed converged into the unified conceptual framework. The majority of models included factors in three domains: individual characteristics and behaviours (88%), healthcare providers and systems (63%), and environment/community (56%), . Only 38% of models included factors in the health and public policies domain. A disease-agnostic unified conceptual framework may inform integration of existing knowledge of child health disparities and guide future research. This multilevel framework can focus attention among clinical, basic and social science research on the relationships between policy, social factors, health systems and the physical environment that impact children's health outcomes. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Methodological framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of multi-hazards at a municipal scale: a case study in the Fella river valley, Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, Haydar; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola

2013-04-01

Local and regional authorities in mountainous areas that deal with hydro-meteorological hazards like landslides and floods try to set aside budgets for emergencies and risk mitigation. However, future losses are often not calculated in a probabilistic manner when allocating budgets or determining how much risk is acceptable. The absence of probabilistic risk estimates can create a lack of preparedness for reconstruction and risk reduction costs and a deficiency in promoting risk mitigation and prevention in an effective way. The probabilistic risk of natural hazards at local scale is usually ignored all together due to the difficulty in acknowledging, processing and incorporating uncertainties in the estimation of losses (e.g. physical damage, fatalities and monetary loss). This study attempts to set up a working framework for a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of landslides and floods at a municipal scale using the Fella river valley (Eastern Italian Alps) as a multi-hazard case study area. The emphasis is on the evaluation and determination of the uncertainty in the estimation of losses from multi-hazards. To carry out this framework some steps are needed: (1) by using physically based stochastic landslide and flood models we aim to calculate the probability of the physical impact on individual elements at risk, (2) this is then combined with a statistical analysis of the vulnerability and monetary value of the elements at risk in order to include their uncertainty in the risk assessment, (3) finally the uncertainty from each risk component is propagated into the loss estimation. The combined effect of landslides and floods on the direct risk to communities in narrow alpine valleys is also one of important aspects that needs to be studied.

Combining Multiple Rupture Models in Real-Time for Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Wu, S.; Beck, J. L.; Heaton, T. H.

2015-12-01

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States is designed to combine information from multiple independent earthquake analysis algorithms in order to provide the public with robust predictions of shaking intensity at each user's location before they are affected by strong shaking. The current contributing analyses come from algorithms that determine the origin time, epicenter, and magnitude of an earthquake (On-site, ElarmS, and Virtual Seismologist). A second generation of algorithms will provide seismic line source information (FinDer), as well as geodetically-constrained slip models (BEFORES, GPSlip, G-larmS, G-FAST). These new algorithms will provide more information about the spatial extent of the earthquake rupture and thus improve the quality of the resulting shaking forecasts.Each of the contributing algorithms exploits different features of the observed seismic and geodetic data, and thus each algorithm may perform differently for different data availability and earthquake source characteristics. Thus the ShakeAlert system requires a central mediator, called the Central Decision Module (CDM). The CDM acts to combine disparate earthquake source information into one unified shaking forecast. Here we will present a new design for the CDM that uses a Bayesian framework to combine earthquake reports from multiple analysis algorithms and compares them to observed shaking information in order to both assess the relative plausibility of each earthquake report and to create an improved unified shaking forecast complete with appropriate uncertainties. We will describe how these probabilistic shaking forecasts can be used to provide each user with a personalized decision-making tool that can help decide whether or not to take a protective action (such as opening fire house doors or stopping trains) based on that user's distance to the earthquake, vulnerability to shaking, false alarm tolerance, and time required to act.

Progresses with Net-VISA on Global Infrasound Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mialle, Pierrick; Arora, Nimar

2017-04-01

Global Infrasound Association algorithms are an important area of active development at the International Data Centre (IDC). These algorithms play an important part of the automatic processing system for verification technologies. A key focus at the IDC is to enhance association and signal characterization methods by incorporating the identification of signals of interest and the optimization of the network detection threshold. The overall objective is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the Reviewed Event Bulletins (REB), and hence reduce IDC analyst workload. Despite good accuracy by the IDC categorization, a number of signal detections due to clutter sources such as microbaroms or surf are built into events. In this work we aim to optimize the association criteria based on knowledge acquired by IDC in the last 6 years, and focus on the specificity of seismo-acoustic events. The resulting work has been incorporated into NETVISA [1], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The model that we propose is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Progresses with Net-VISA on Global Infrasound Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mialle, P.; Arora, N. S.

2016-12-01

Global Infrasound Association algorithms are an important area of active development at the International Data Centre (IDC). These algorithms play an important part of the automatic processing system for verification technologies. A key focus at the IDC is to enhance association and signal characterization methods by incorporating the identification of signals of interest and the optimization of the network detection threshold. The overall objective is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the Reviewed Event Bulletins (REB), and hence reduce IDC analyst workload. Despite good accuracy by the IDC categorization, a number of signal detections due to clutter sources such as microbaroms or surf are built into events. In this work we aim to optimize the association criteria based on knowledge acquired by IDC in the last 6 years, and focus on the specificity of seismo-acoustic events. The resulting work has been incorporated into NETVISA [1], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The model that we propose is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

A unified framework for approximation in inverse problems for distributed parameter systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Ito, K.

1988-01-01

A theoretical framework is presented that can be used to treat approximation techniques for very general classes of parameter estimation problems involving distributed systems that are either first or second order in time. Using the approach developed, one can obtain both convergence and stability (continuous dependence of parameter estimates with respect to the observations) under very weak regularity and compactness assumptions on the set of admissible parameters. This unified theory can be used for many problems found in the recent literature and in many cases offers significant improvements to existing results.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

The Gain-Loss Model: A Probabilistic Skill Multimap Model for Assessing Learning Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robusto, Egidio; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale

2010-01-01

Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…

In Search of a Unified Model of Language Contact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winford, Donald

2013-01-01

Much previous research has pointed to the need for a unified framework for language contact phenomena -- one that would include social factors and motivations, structural factors and linguistic constraints, and psycholinguistic factors involved in processes of language processing and production. While Contact Linguistics has devoted a great deal…

Summing up the noise in gene networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulsson, Johan

2004-01-01

Random fluctuations in genetic networks are inevitable as chemical reactions are probabilistic and many genes, RNAs and proteins are present in low numbers per cell. Such `noise' affects all life processes and has recently been measured using green fluorescent protein (GFP). Two studies show that negative feedback suppresses noise, and three others identify the sources of noise in gene expression. Here I critically analyse these studies and present a simple equation that unifies and extends both the mathematical and biological perspectives.

Transient flow conditions in probabilistic wellhead protection: importance and ways to manage spatial and temporal uncertainty in capture zone delineation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Rodriguez-Pretelin, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-12-01

"From an engineering standpoint, the quantification of uncertainty is extremely important not only because it allows estimating risk but mostly because it allows taking optimal decisions in an uncertain framework" (Renard, 2007). The most common way to account for uncertainty in the field of subsurface hydrology and wellhead protection is to randomize spatial parameters, e.g. the log-hydraulic conductivity or porosity. This enables water managers to take robust decisions in delineating wellhead protection zones with rationally chosen safety margins in the spirit of probabilistic risk management. Probabilistic wellhead protection zones are commonly based on steady-state flow fields. However, several past studies showed that transient flow conditions may substantially influence the shape and extent of catchments. Therefore, we believe they should be accounted for in the probabilistic assessment and in the delineation process. The aim of our work is to show the significance of flow transients and to investigate the interplay between spatial uncertainty and flow transients in wellhead protection zone delineation. To this end, we advance our concept of probabilistic capture zone delineation (Enzenhoefer et al., 2012) that works with capture probabilities and other probabilistic criteria for delineation. The extended framework is able to evaluate the time fraction that any point on a map falls within a capture zone. In short, we separate capture probabilities into spatial/statistical and time-related frequencies. This will provide water managers additional information on how to manage a well catchment in the light of possible hazard conditions close to the capture boundary under uncertain and time-variable flow conditions. In order to save computational costs, we take advantage of super-positioned flow components with time-variable coefficients. We assume an instantaneous development of steady-state flow conditions after each temporal change in driving forces, following an idea by Festger and Walter, 2002. These quasi steady-state flow fields are cast into a geostatistical Monte Carlo framework to admit and evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the delineation process. Furthermore, this framework enables conditioning on observed data with any conditioning scheme, such as rejection sampling, Ensemble Kalman Filters, etc. To further reduce the computational load, we use the reverse formulation of advective-dispersive transport. We simulate the reverse transport by particle tracking random walk in order to avoid numerical dispersion to account for well arrival times.

Evaluation of the Plant-Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, Richard J.; Plant, Robert S.; Tennant, Warren J.

2016-05-01

The Plant-Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant-Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant-Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model

PubMed Central

Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S.; Breen, Lauren J.; Witt, Regina R.; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

2016-01-01

Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care. PMID:27242567

The neurosciences and the search for a unified psychology: the science and esthetics of a single framework

PubMed Central

Stam, Henderikus J.

2015-01-01

The search for a so-called unified or integrated theory has long served as a goal for some psychologists, even if the search is often implicit. But if the established sciences do not have an explicitly unified set of theories, then why should psychology? After examining this question again I argue that psychology is in fact reasonably unified around its methods and its commitment to functional explanations, an indeterminate functionalism. The question of the place of the neurosciences in this framework is complex. On the one hand, the neuroscientific project will not likely renew and synthesize the disparate arms of psychology. On the other hand, their reformulation of what it means to be human will exert an influence in multiple ways. One way to capture that influence is to conceptualize the brain in terms of a technology that we interact with in a manner that we do not yet fully understand. In this way we maintain both a distance from neuro-reductionism and refrain from committing to an unfettered subjectivity. PMID:26500571

Efficient construction of unified continuous and discontinuous Galerkin formulations for the 3D Euler equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdi, Daniel S.; Giraldo, Francis X.

2016-09-01

A unified approach for the numerical solution of the 3D hyperbolic Euler equations using high order methods, namely continuous Galerkin (CG) and discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods, is presented. First, we examine how classical CG that uses a global storage scheme can be constructed within the DG framework using constraint imposition techniques commonly used in the finite element literature. Then, we implement and test a simplified version in the Non-hydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA) for the case of explicit time integration and a diagonal mass matrix. Constructing CG within the DG framework allows CG to benefit from the desirable properties of DG such as, easier hp-refinement, better stability etc. Moreover, this representation allows for regional mixing of CG and DG depending on the flow regime in an area. The different flavors of CG and DG in the unified implementation are then tested for accuracy and performance using a suite of benchmark problems representative of cloud-resolving scale, meso-scale and global-scale atmospheric dynamics. The value of our unified approach is that we are able to show how to carry both CG and DG methods within the same code and also offer a simple recipe for modifying an existing CG code to DG and vice versa.

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples

PubMed Central

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2009-01-01

Abstract We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples. PMID:19888348

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

PubMed

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

Can (should) theories of crowding be unified?

PubMed Central

Agaoglu, Mehmet N.; Chung, Susana T. L.

2016-01-01

Objects in clutter are difficult to recognize, a phenomenon known as crowding. There is little consensus on the underlying mechanisms of crowding, and a large number of models have been proposed. There have also been attempts at unifying the explanations of crowding under a single model, such as the weighted feature model of Harrison and Bex (2015) and the texture synthesis model of Rosenholtz and colleagues (Balas, Nakano, & Rosenholtz, 2009; Keshvari & Rosenholtz, 2016). The goal of this work was to test various models of crowding and to assess whether a unifying account can be developed. Adopting Harrison and Bex's (2015) experimental paradigm, we asked observers to report the orientation of two concentric C-stimuli. Contrary to the predictions of their model, observers' recognition accuracy was worse for the inner C-stimulus. In addition, we demonstrated that the stimulus paradigm used by Harrison and Bex has a crucial confounding factor, eccentricity, which limits its usage to a very narrow range of stimulus parameters. Nevertheless, reporting the orientations of both C-stimuli in this paradigm proved very useful in pitting different crowding models against each other. Specifically, we tested deterministic and probabilistic versions of averaging, substitution, and attentional resolution models as well as the texture synthesis model. None of the models alone was able to explain the entire set of data. Based on these findings, we discuss whether the explanations of crowding can (should) be unified. PMID:27936273

U.S. History Framework for the 2010 National Assessment of Educational Progress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Assessment Governing Board, 2009

2009-01-01

This framework identifies the main ideas, major events, key individuals, and unifying themes of American history as a basis for preparing the 2010 assessment. The framework recognizes that U.S. history includes powerful ideas, common and diverse traditions, economic developments, technological and scientific innovations, philosophical debates,…

Applying Laban's Movement Framework in Elementary Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langton, Terence W.

2007-01-01

This article recommends raising the bar in elementary physical education by using Laban's movement framework to develop curriculum content in the areas of games, gymnastics, and dance (with physical fitness concepts blended in) in order to help students achieve the NASPE content standards. The movement framework can permeate and unify an…

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. Likely and by default are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as possibility and necessity. To model these four forms probabilistically, a qualitative default probabilistic (QDP) logic and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequent results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

A new discriminative kernel from probabilistic models.

PubMed

Tsuda, Koji; Kawanabe, Motoaki; Rätsch, Gunnar; Sonnenburg, Sören; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2002-10-01

Recently, Jaakkola and Haussler (1999) proposed a method for constructing kernel functions from probabilistic models. Their so-called Fisher kernel has been combined with discriminative classifiers such as support vector machines and applied successfully in, for example, DNA and protein analysis. Whereas the Fisher kernel is calculated from the marginal log-likelihood, we propose the TOP kernel derived; from tangent vectors of posterior log-odds. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework on feature extractors from probabilistic models and use it for analyzing the TOP kernel. In experiments, our new discriminative TOP kernel compares favorably to the Fisher kernel.

UNITY: Confronting Supernova Cosmology's Statistical and Systematic Uncertainties in a Unified Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, D.; Aldering, G.; Barbary, K.; Boone, K.; Chappell, G.; Currie, M.; Deustua, S.; Fagrelius, P.; Fruchter, A.; Hayden, B.; Lidman, C.; Nordin, J.; Perlmutter, S.; Saunders, C.; Sofiatti, C.; Supernova Cosmology Project, The

2015-11-01

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape- and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

A High Performance Computing Approach to Tree Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery Using a Probabilistic Learning Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basu, Saikat; Ganguly, Sangram; Michaelis, Andrew; Votava, Petr; Roy, Anshuman; Mukhopadhyay, Supratik; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2015-01-01

Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets, which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.

A High Performance Computing Approach to Tree Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery using a Probabilistic Learning Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, S.; Ganguly, S.; Michaelis, A.; Votava, P.; Roy, A.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Nemani, R. R.

2015-12-01

Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.

Conjoint-measurement framework for the study of probabilistic information processing.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallsten, T. S.

1972-01-01

The theory of conjoint measurement described by Krantz et al. (1971) is shown to indicate how a descriptive model of human processing of probabilistic information built around Bayes' rule is to be tested and how it is to be used to obtain subjective scale values. Specific relationships concerning these scale values are shown to emerge, and the theoretical prospects resulting from this development are discussed.

Sheldon Glashow, the Electroweak Theory, and the Grand Unified Theory

Science.gov Websites

] 'Glashow shared the 1979 Nobel Prize for physics with Steven Weinberg and Abdus Salam for unifying the particle physics and provides a framework for understanding how the early universe evolved and how the our universe came into being," says Lawrence R. Sulak, chairman of the Boston University physics

"UNICERT," or: Towards the Development of a Unified Language Certificate for German Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voss, Bernd

The standardization of second language proficiency levels for university students in Germany is discussed. Problems with the current system, in which each university has developed its own program of study and proficiency certification, are examined and a framework for development of a unified language certificate for all universities is outlined.…

A Framework for Thinking about Informal Statistical Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makar, Katie; Rubin, Andee

2009-01-01

Informal inferential reasoning has shown some promise in developing students' deeper understanding of statistical processes. This paper presents a framework to think about three key principles of informal inference--generalizations "beyond the data," probabilistic language, and data as evidence. The authors use primary school classroom…

A unified framework for heat and mass transport at the atomic scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponga, Mauricio; Sun, Dingyi

2018-04-01

We present a unified framework to simulate heat and mass transport in systems of particles. The proposed framework is based on kinematic mean field theory and uses a phenomenological master equation to compute effective transport rates between particles without the need to evaluate operators. We exploit this advantage and apply the model to simulate transport phenomena at the nanoscale. We demonstrate that, when calibrated to experimentally-measured transport coefficients, the model can accurately predict transient and steady state temperature and concentration profiles even in scenarios where the length of the device is comparable to the mean free path of the carriers. Through several example applications, we demonstrate the validity of our model for all classes of materials, including ones that, until now, would have been outside the domain of computational feasibility.

A unified theoretical framework for mapping models for the multi-state Hamiltonian.

PubMed

Liu, Jian

2016-11-28

We propose a new unified theoretical framework to construct equivalent representations of the multi-state Hamiltonian operator and present several approaches for the mapping onto the Cartesian phase space. After mapping an F-dimensional Hamiltonian onto an F+1 dimensional space, creation and annihilation operators are defined such that the F+1 dimensional space is complete for any combined excitation. Commutation and anti-commutation relations are then naturally derived, which show that the underlying degrees of freedom are neither bosons nor fermions. This sets the scene for developing equivalent expressions of the Hamiltonian operator in quantum mechanics and their classical/semiclassical counterparts. Six mapping models are presented as examples. The framework also offers a novel way to derive such as the well-known Meyer-Miller model.

P21 Framework Definitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2009

2009-01-01

To help practitioners integrate skills into the teaching of core academic subjects, the Partnership for 21st Century Skills has developed a unified, collective vision for learning known as the Framework for 21st Century Learning. This Framework describes the skills, knowledge and expertise students must master to succeed in work and life; it is a…

Toward a Unified Validation Framework in Mixed Methods Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dellinger, Amy B.; Leech, Nancy L.

2007-01-01

The primary purpose of this article is to further discussions of validity in mixed methods research by introducing a validation framework to guide thinking about validity in this area. To justify the use of this framework, the authors discuss traditional terminology and validity criteria for quantitative and qualitative research, as well as…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang Yinan; Shi Handuo; Xiong Zhaoxi

We present a unified universal quantum cloning machine, which combines several different existing universal cloning machines together, including the asymmetric case. In this unified framework, the identical pure states are projected equally into each copy initially constituted by input and one half of the maximally entangled states. We show explicitly that the output states of those universal cloning machines are the same. One importance of this unified cloning machine is that the cloning procession is always the symmetric projection, which reduces dramatically the difficulties for implementation. Also, it is found that this unified cloning machine can be directly modified tomore » the general asymmetric case. Besides the global fidelity and the single-copy fidelity, we also present all possible arbitrary-copy fidelities.« less

[Arabian food pyramid: unified framework for nutritional health messages].

PubMed

Shokr, Adel M

2008-01-01

There are several ways to present nutritional health messages, particularly pyramidic indices, but they have many deficiencies such as lack of agreement on a unified or clear methodology for food grouping and ignoring nutritional group inter-relation and integration. This causes confusion for health educators and target individuals. This paper presents an Arabian food pyramid that aims to unify the bases of nutritional health messages, bringing together the function, contents, source and nutritional group servings and indicating the inter-relation and integration of nutritional groups. This provides comprehensive, integrated, simple and flexible health messages.

Probabilistic Description of the Hydrologic Risk in Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

2011-12-01

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variability on agroecosystems productivity and profitability, at the expenses of increasing water requirements for irrigation purposes. Optimizing water allocation for crop yield preservation and sustainable development needs to account for hydro-climatic variability, which is by far the main source of uncertainty affecting crop yields and irrigation water requirements. In this contribution, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed to quantitatively define the hydrologic risk of yield reduction for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season. Based on these linkages, long-term and real-time yield reduction risk indices are defined as a function of climate, soil and crop parameters, as well as irrigation strategy. The former risk index is suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, while the latter risk index provides a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season. This probabilistic framework allows also assessing the impact of limited water availability on crop yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios, thus facilitating the assessment of the impact of increasingly frequent water shortages on agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability.

Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-20

solved by simply using the information provided by the scenario. Instead, additional knowledge is required from relevant fields that study these...resilience function by leveraging Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network framework[5],[6]. BKBs allow for inferencing...reasoning network framework based on Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). BKBs are central to our social resilience framework as they are used to

Prediction Uncertainty and Groundwater Management: Approaches to get the Most out of Probabilistic Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, L. J.; Mallants, D.; Turnadge, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater impact assessments are increasingly being undertaken in a probabilistic framework whereby various sources of uncertainty (model parameters, model structure, boundary conditions, and calibration data) are taken into account. This has resulted in groundwater impact metrics being presented as probability density functions and/or cumulative distribution functions, spatial maps displaying isolines of percentile values for specific metrics, etc. Groundwater management on the other hand typically uses single values (i.e., in a deterministic framework) to evaluate what decisions are required to protect groundwater resources. For instance, in New South Wales, Australia, a nominal drawdown value of two metres is specified by the NSW Aquifer Interference Policy as trigger-level threshold. In many cases, when drawdowns induced by groundwater extraction exceed two metres, "make-good" provisions are enacted (such as the surrendering of extraction licenses). The information obtained from a quantitative uncertainty analysis can be used to guide decision making in several ways. Two examples are discussed here: the first of which would not require modification of existing "deterministic" trigger or guideline values, whereas the second example assumes that the regulatory criteria are also expressed in probabilistic terms. The first example is a straightforward interpretation of calculated percentile values for specific impact metrics. The second examples goes a step further, as the previous deterministic thresholds do not currently allow for a probabilistic interpretation; e.g., there is no statement that "the probability of exceeding the threshold shall not be larger than 50%". It would indeed be sensible to have a set of thresholds with an associated acceptable probability of exceedance (or probability of not exceeding a threshold) that decreases as the impact increases. We here illustrate how both the prediction uncertainty and management rules can be expressed in a probabilistic framework, using groundwater metrics derived for a highly stressed groundwater system.

Kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for disease classification using microarray gene expression data

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xin; Cheung, Leo Wang-Kit

2007-01-01

Background Designing appropriate machine learning methods for identifying genes that have a significant discriminating power for disease outcomes has become more and more important for our understanding of diseases at genomic level. Although many machine learning methods have been developed and applied to the area of microarray gene expression data analysis, the majority of them are based on linear models, which however are not necessarily appropriate for the underlying connection between the target disease and its associated explanatory genes. Linear model based methods usually also bring in false positive significant features more easily. Furthermore, linear model based algorithms often involve calculating the inverse of a matrix that is possibly singular when the number of potentially important genes is relatively large. This leads to problems of numerical instability. To overcome these limitations, a few non-linear methods have recently been introduced to the area. Many of the existing non-linear methods have a couple of critical problems, the model selection problem and the model parameter tuning problem, that remain unsolved or even untouched. In general, a unified framework that allows model parameters of both linear and non-linear models to be easily tuned is always preferred in real-world applications. Kernel-induced learning methods form a class of approaches that show promising potentials to achieve this goal. Results A hierarchical statistical model named kernel-imbedded Gaussian process (KIGP) is developed under a unified Bayesian framework for binary disease classification problems using microarray gene expression data. In particular, based on a probit regression setting, an adaptive algorithm with a cascading structure is designed to find the appropriate kernel, to discover the potentially significant genes, and to make the optimal class prediction accordingly. A Gibbs sampler is built as the core of the algorithm to make Bayesian inferences. Simulation studies showed that, even without any knowledge of the underlying generative model, the KIGP performed very close to the theoretical Bayesian bound not only in the case with a linear Bayesian classifier but also in the case with a very non-linear Bayesian classifier. This sheds light on its broader usability to microarray data analysis problems, especially to those that linear methods work awkwardly. The KIGP was also applied to four published microarray datasets, and the results showed that the KIGP performed better than or at least as well as any of the referred state-of-the-art methods did in all of these cases. Conclusion Mathematically built on the kernel-induced feature space concept under a Bayesian framework, the KIGP method presented in this paper provides a unified machine learning approach to explore both the linear and the possibly non-linear underlying relationship between the target features of a given binary disease classification problem and the related explanatory gene expression data. More importantly, it incorporates the model parameter tuning into the framework. The model selection problem is addressed in the form of selecting a proper kernel type. The KIGP method also gives Bayesian probabilistic predictions for disease classification. These properties and features are beneficial to most real-world applications. The algorithm is naturally robust in numerical computation. The simulation studies and the published data studies demonstrated that the proposed KIGP performs satisfactorily and consistently. PMID:17328811

Robust speech perception: Recognize the familiar, generalize to the similar, and adapt to the novel

PubMed Central

Kleinschmidt, Dave F.; Jaeger, T. Florian

2016-01-01

Successful speech perception requires that listeners map the acoustic signal to linguistic categories. These mappings are not only probabilistic, but change depending on the situation. For example, one talker’s /p/ might be physically indistinguishable from another talker’s /b/ (cf. lack of invariance). We characterize the computational problem posed by such a subjectively non-stationary world and propose that the speech perception system overcomes this challenge by (1) recognizing previously encountered situations, (2) generalizing to other situations based on previous similar experience, and (3) adapting to novel situations. We formalize this proposal in the ideal adapter framework: (1) to (3) can be understood as inference under uncertainty about the appropriate generative model for the current talker, thereby facilitating robust speech perception despite the lack of invariance. We focus on two critical aspects of the ideal adapter. First, in situations that clearly deviate from previous experience, listeners need to adapt. We develop a distributional (belief-updating) learning model of incremental adaptation. The model provides a good fit against known and novel phonetic adaptation data, including perceptual recalibration and selective adaptation. Second, robust speech recognition requires listeners learn to represent the structured component of cross-situation variability in the speech signal. We discuss how these two aspects of the ideal adapter provide a unifying explanation for adaptation, talker-specificity, and generalization across talkers and groups of talkers (e.g., accents and dialects). The ideal adapter provides a guiding framework for future investigations into speech perception and adaptation, and more broadly language comprehension. PMID:25844873

Probabilistic durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments: Reliability and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bo; Ning, Chao-lie; Li, Bing

2017-03-01

A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the environmental, material, structural and executional conditions. A time-dependent probabilistic model of chloride ingress was established first to consider the variations in various governing parameters, such as the chloride concentration, chloride diffusion coefficient, and age factor. Then the Nataf transformation was adopted to transform the non-normal random variables from the original physical space into the independent standard Normal space. After that the durability limit state function and its gradient vector with respect to the original physical parameters were derived analytically, based on which the first-order reliability method was adopted to analyze the time-dependent reliability and parametric sensitivity of concrete structures in marine environments. The accuracy of the proposed method was verified by comparing with the second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the influences of environmental conditions, material properties, structural parameters and execution conditions on the time-dependent reliability of concrete structures in marine environments were also investigated. The proposed probabilistic framework can be implemented in the decision-making algorithm for the maintenance and repair of deteriorating concrete structures in marine environments.

A probabilistic framework to infer brain functional connectivity from anatomical connections.

PubMed

Deligianni, Fani; Varoquaux, Gael; Thirion, Bertrand; Robinson, Emma; Sharp, David J; Edwards, A David; Rueckert, Daniel

2011-01-01

We present a novel probabilistic framework to learn across several subjects a mapping from brain anatomical connectivity to functional connectivity, i.e. the covariance structure of brain activity. This prediction problem must be formulated as a structured-output learning task, as the predicted parameters are strongly correlated. We introduce a model selection framework based on cross-validation with a parametrization-independent loss function suitable to the manifold of covariance matrices. Our model is based on constraining the conditional independence structure of functional activity by the anatomical connectivity. Subsequently, we learn a linear predictor of a stationary multivariate autoregressive model. This natural parameterization of functional connectivity also enforces the positive-definiteness of the predicted covariance and thus matches the structure of the output space. Our results show that functional connectivity can be explained by anatomical connectivity on a rigorous statistical basis, and that a proper model of functional connectivity is essential to assess this link.

Collusion-resistant multimedia fingerprinting: a unified framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Min; Trappe, Wade; Wang, Z. Jane; Liu, K. J. Ray

2004-06-01

Digital fingerprints are unique labels inserted in different copies of the same content before distribution. Each digital fingerprint is assigned to an inteded recipient, and can be used to trace the culprits who use their content for unintended purposes. Attacks mounted by multiple users, known as collusion attacks, provide a cost-effective method for attenuating the identifying fingerprint from each coluder, thus collusion poses a reeal challenge to protect the digital media data and enforce usage policies. This paper examines a few major design methodologies for collusion-resistant fingerprinting of multimedia, and presents a unified framework that helps highlight the common issues and the uniqueness of different fingerprinting techniques.

Model based inference from microvascular measurements: Combining experimental measurements and model predictions using a Bayesian probabilistic approach

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Peter M.; Smith, Amy F.; Sakadžić, Sava; Boas, David A.; Pries, Axel R.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Østergaard, Leif

2017-01-01

Objective In vivo imaging of the microcirculation and network-oriented modeling have emerged as powerful means of studying microvascular function and understanding its physiological significance. Network-oriented modeling may provide the means of summarizing vast amounts of data produced by high-throughput imaging techniques in terms of key, physiological indices. To estimate such indices with sufficient certainty, however, network-oriented analysis must be robust to the inevitable presence of uncertainty due to measurement errors as well as model errors. Methods We propose the Bayesian probabilistic data analysis framework as a means of integrating experimental measurements and network model simulations into a combined and statistically coherent analysis. The framework naturally handles noisy measurements and provides posterior distributions of model parameters as well as physiological indices associated with uncertainty. Results We applied the analysis framework to experimental data from three rat mesentery networks and one mouse brain cortex network. We inferred distributions for more than five hundred unknown pressure and hematocrit boundary conditions. Model predictions were consistent with previous analyses, and remained robust when measurements were omitted from model calibration. Conclusion Our Bayesian probabilistic approach may be suitable for optimizing data acquisition and for analyzing and reporting large datasets acquired as part of microvascular imaging studies. PMID:27987383

A Framework for Probabilistic Evaluation of Interval Management Tolerance in the Terminal Radar Control Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hercencia-Zapana, Heber; Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Neogi, Natasha

2012-01-01

Projections of future traffic in the national airspace show that most of the hub airports and their attendant airspace will need to undergo significant redevelopment and redesign in order to accommodate any significant increase in traffic volume. Even though closely spaced parallel approaches increase throughput into a given airport, controller workload in oversubscribed metroplexes is further taxed by these approaches that require stringent monitoring in a saturated environment. The interval management (IM) concept in the TRACON area is designed to shift some of the operational burden from the control tower to the flight deck, placing the flight crew in charge of implementing the required speed changes to maintain a relative spacing interval. The interval management tolerance is a measure of the allowable deviation from the desired spacing interval for the IM aircraft (and its target aircraft). For this complex task, Formal Methods can help to ensure better design and system implementation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainty and performance associated with the major components of the IM tolerance. The analytical basis for this framework may be used to formalize both correctness and probabilistic system safety claims in a modular fashion at the algorithmic level in a way compatible with several Formal Methods tools.

A development framework for semantically interoperable health information systems.

PubMed

Lopez, Diego M; Blobel, Bernd G M E

2009-02-01

Semantic interoperability is a basic challenge to be met for new generations of distributed, communicating and co-operating health information systems (HIS) enabling shared care and e-Health. Analysis, design, implementation and maintenance of such systems and intrinsic architectures have to follow a unified development methodology. The Generic Component Model (GCM) is used as a framework for modeling any system to evaluate and harmonize state of the art architecture development approaches and standards for health information systems as well as to derive a coherent architecture development framework for sustainable, semantically interoperable HIS and their components. The proposed methodology is based on the Rational Unified Process (RUP), taking advantage of its flexibility to be configured for integrating other architectural approaches such as Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), Model-Driven Architecture (MDA), ISO 10746, and HL7 Development Framework (HDF). Existing architectural approaches have been analyzed, compared and finally harmonized towards an architecture development framework for advanced health information systems. Starting with the requirements for semantic interoperability derived from paradigm changes for health information systems, and supported in formal software process engineering methods, an appropriate development framework for semantically interoperable HIS has been provided. The usability of the framework has been exemplified in a public health scenario.

Hierarchical probabilistic Gabor and MRF segmentation of brain tumours in MRI volumes.

PubMed

Subbanna, Nagesh K; Precup, Doina; Collins, D Louis; Arbel, Tal

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a fully automated hierarchical probabilistic framework for segmenting brain tumours from multispectral human brain magnetic resonance images (MRIs) using multiwindow Gabor filters and an adapted Markov Random Field (MRF) framework. In the first stage, a customised Gabor decomposition is developed, based on the combined-space characteristics of the two classes (tumour and non-tumour) in multispectral brain MRIs in order to optimally separate tumour (including edema) from healthy brain tissues. A Bayesian framework then provides a coarse probabilistic texture-based segmentation of tumours (including edema) whose boundaries are then refined at the voxel level through a modified MRF framework that carefully separates the edema from the main tumour. This customised MRF is not only built on the voxel intensities and class labels as in traditional MRFs, but also models the intensity differences between neighbouring voxels in the likelihood model, along with employing a prior based on local tissue class transition probabilities. The second inference stage is shown to resolve local inhomogeneities and impose a smoothing constraint, while also maintaining the appropriate boundaries as supported by the local intensity difference observations. The method was trained and tested on the publicly available MICCAI 2012 Brain Tumour Segmentation Challenge (BRATS) Database [1] on both synthetic and clinical volumes (low grade and high grade tumours). Our method performs well compared to state-of-the-art techniques, outperforming the results of the top methods in cases of clinical high grade and low grade tumour core segmentation by 40% and 45% respectively.

Integrating dynamic stopping, transfer learning and language models in an adaptive zero-training ERP speller.

PubMed

Kindermans, Pieter-Jan; Tangermann, Michael; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Schrauwen, Benjamin

2014-06-01

Most BCIs have to undergo a calibration session in which data is recorded to train decoders with machine learning. Only recently zero-training methods have become a subject of study. This work proposes a probabilistic framework for BCI applications which exploit event-related potentials (ERPs). For the example of a visual P300 speller we show how the framework harvests the structure suitable to solve the decoding task by (a) transfer learning, (b) unsupervised adaptation, (c) language model and (d) dynamic stopping. A simulation study compares the proposed probabilistic zero framework (using transfer learning and task structure) to a state-of-the-art supervised model on n = 22 subjects. The individual influence of the involved components (a)-(d) are investigated. Without any need for a calibration session, the probabilistic zero-training framework with inter-subject transfer learning shows excellent performance--competitive to a state-of-the-art supervised method using calibration. Its decoding quality is carried mainly by the effect of transfer learning in combination with continuous unsupervised adaptation. A high-performing zero-training BCI is within reach for one of the most popular BCI paradigms: ERP spelling. Recording calibration data for a supervised BCI would require valuable time which is lost for spelling. The time spent on calibration would allow a novel user to spell 29 symbols with our unsupervised approach. It could be of use for various clinical and non-clinical ERP-applications of BCI.

Integrating dynamic stopping, transfer learning and language models in an adaptive zero-training ERP speller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermans, Pieter-Jan; Tangermann, Michael; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Schrauwen, Benjamin

2014-06-01

Objective. Most BCIs have to undergo a calibration session in which data is recorded to train decoders with machine learning. Only recently zero-training methods have become a subject of study. This work proposes a probabilistic framework for BCI applications which exploit event-related potentials (ERPs). For the example of a visual P300 speller we show how the framework harvests the structure suitable to solve the decoding task by (a) transfer learning, (b) unsupervised adaptation, (c) language model and (d) dynamic stopping. Approach. A simulation study compares the proposed probabilistic zero framework (using transfer learning and task structure) to a state-of-the-art supervised model on n = 22 subjects. The individual influence of the involved components (a)-(d) are investigated. Main results. Without any need for a calibration session, the probabilistic zero-training framework with inter-subject transfer learning shows excellent performance—competitive to a state-of-the-art supervised method using calibration. Its decoding quality is carried mainly by the effect of transfer learning in combination with continuous unsupervised adaptation. Significance. A high-performing zero-training BCI is within reach for one of the most popular BCI paradigms: ERP spelling. Recording calibration data for a supervised BCI would require valuable time which is lost for spelling. The time spent on calibration would allow a novel user to spell 29 symbols with our unsupervised approach. It could be of use for various clinical and non-clinical ERP-applications of BCI.

The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

2017-05-01

By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A unified computational model of the development of object unity, object permanence, and occluded object trajectory perception.

PubMed

Franz, A; Triesch, J

2010-12-01

The perception of the unity of objects, their permanence when out of sight, and the ability to perceive continuous object trajectories even during occlusion belong to the first and most important capacities that infants have to acquire. Despite much research a unified model of the development of these abilities is still missing. Here we make an attempt to provide such a unified model. We present a recurrent artificial neural network that learns to predict the motion of stimuli occluding each other and that develops representations of occluded object parts. It represents completely occluded, moving objects for several time steps and successfully predicts their reappearance after occlusion. This framework allows us to account for a broad range of experimental data. Specifically, the model explains how the perception of object unity develops, the role of the width of the occluders, and it also accounts for differences between data for moving and stationary stimuli. We demonstrate that these abilities can be acquired by learning to predict the sensory input. The model makes specific predictions and provides a unifying framework that has the potential to be extended to other visual event categories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A generative, probabilistic model of local protein structure.

PubMed

Boomsma, Wouter; Mardia, Kanti V; Taylor, Charles C; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Krogh, Anders; Hamelryck, Thomas

2008-07-01

Despite significant progress in recent years, protein structure prediction maintains its status as one of the prime unsolved problems in computational biology. One of the key remaining challenges is an efficient probabilistic exploration of the structural space that correctly reflects the relative conformational stabilities. Here, we present a fully probabilistic, continuous model of local protein structure in atomic detail. The generative model makes efficient conformational sampling possible and provides a framework for the rigorous analysis of local sequence-structure correlations in the native state. Our method represents a significant theoretical and practical improvement over the widely used fragment assembly technique by avoiding the drawbacks associated with a discrete and nonprobabilistic approach.

A Unified Theoretical Framework for Cognitive Sequencing.

PubMed

Savalia, Tejas; Shukla, Anuj; Bapi, Raju S

2016-01-01

The capacity to sequence information is central to human performance. Sequencing ability forms the foundation stone for higher order cognition related to language and goal-directed planning. Information related to the order of items, their timing, chunking and hierarchical organization are important aspects in sequencing. Past research on sequencing has emphasized two distinct and independent dichotomies: implicit vs. explicit and goal-directed vs. habits. We propose a theoretical framework unifying these two streams. Our proposal relies on brain's ability to implicitly extract statistical regularities from the stream of stimuli and with attentional engagement organizing sequences explicitly and hierarchically. Similarly, sequences that need to be assembled purposively to accomplish a goal require engagement of attentional processes. With repetition, these goal-directed plans become habits with concomitant disengagement of attention. Thus, attention and awareness play a crucial role in the implicit-to-explicit transition as well as in how goal-directed plans become automatic habits. Cortico-subcortical loops basal ganglia-frontal cortex and hippocampus-frontal cortex loops mediate the transition process. We show how the computational principles of model-free and model-based learning paradigms, along with a pivotal role for attention and awareness, offer a unifying framework for these two dichotomies. Based on this framework, we make testable predictions related to the potential influence of response-to-stimulus interval (RSI) on developing awareness in implicit learning tasks.

A Unified Theoretical Framework for Cognitive Sequencing

PubMed Central

Savalia, Tejas; Shukla, Anuj; Bapi, Raju S.

2016-01-01

The capacity to sequence information is central to human performance. Sequencing ability forms the foundation stone for higher order cognition related to language and goal-directed planning. Information related to the order of items, their timing, chunking and hierarchical organization are important aspects in sequencing. Past research on sequencing has emphasized two distinct and independent dichotomies: implicit vs. explicit and goal-directed vs. habits. We propose a theoretical framework unifying these two streams. Our proposal relies on brain's ability to implicitly extract statistical regularities from the stream of stimuli and with attentional engagement organizing sequences explicitly and hierarchically. Similarly, sequences that need to be assembled purposively to accomplish a goal require engagement of attentional processes. With repetition, these goal-directed plans become habits with concomitant disengagement of attention. Thus, attention and awareness play a crucial role in the implicit-to-explicit transition as well as in how goal-directed plans become automatic habits. Cortico-subcortical loops basal ganglia-frontal cortex and hippocampus-frontal cortex loops mediate the transition process. We show how the computational principles of model-free and model-based learning paradigms, along with a pivotal role for attention and awareness, offer a unifying framework for these two dichotomies. Based on this framework, we make testable predictions related to the potential influence of response-to-stimulus interval (RSI) on developing awareness in implicit learning tasks. PMID:27917146

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporatesmore » deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.« less

The Pursuit of a "Better" Explanation as an Organizing Framework for Science Teaching and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papadouris, Nicos; Vokos, Stamatis; Constantinou, Constantinos P.

2018-01-01

This article seeks to make the case for the pursuit of a "better" explanation being a productive organizing framework for science teaching and learning. Underlying this position is the idea that this framework allows promoting, in a unified manner, facility with the scientific practice of constructing explanations, appreciation of its…

In-situ monitoring and assessment of post barge-bridge collision damage for minimizing traffic delay and detour : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-31

This report presents a novel framework for promptly assessing the probability of barge-bridge : collision damage of piers based on probabilistic-based classification through machine learning. The main : idea of the presented framework is to divide th...

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

"Circumstance and Proper Timing": Context and the Construction of a Standards Framework for School Principals' Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louden, William; Wildy, Helen

1999-01-01

Professional standards for school principals typically describe an ideal performance in a generalized context. This article describes an alternative method of developing a standards framework, combining qualitative vignettes with probabilistic measurement techniques to provide essential or ideal performance qualities with contextually rich…

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Space-Time Processing for Tactical Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

vision for multiple concurrent communication settings, i.e., a many-to-many framework where multi-packet transmissions (MPTs) and multi-packet...modelling framework of capacity-delay tradeoffs We have introduced the first unified modeling framework for the computation of fundamental limits o We...dalities in wireless n twor i-packet modelling framework to account for the use of m lti-packet reception (MPR) f ad hoc networks with MPT under

Unified formalism for higher order non-autonomous dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto-Martínez, Pedro Daniel; Román-Roy, Narciso

2012-03-01

This work is devoted to giving a geometric framework for describing higher order non-autonomous mechanical systems. The starting point is to extend the Lagrangian-Hamiltonian unified formalism of Skinner and Rusk for these kinds of systems, generalizing previous developments for higher order autonomous mechanical systems and first-order non-autonomous mechanical systems. Then, we use this unified formulation to derive the standard Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formalisms, including the Legendre-Ostrogradsky map and the Euler-Lagrange and the Hamilton equations, both for regular and singular systems. As applications of our model, two examples of regular and singular physical systems are studied.

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Colaborated Architechture Framework for Composition UML 2.0 in Zachman Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermawan; Hastarista, Fika

2016-01-01

Zachman Framework (ZF) is the framework of enterprise architechture that most widely adopted in the Enterprise Information System (EIS) development. In this study, has been developed Colaborated Architechture Framework (CAF) to collaborate ZF with Unified Modeling Language (UML) 2.0 modeling. The CAF provides the composition of ZF matrix that each cell is consist of the Model Driven architechture (MDA) from the various UML models and many Software Requirement Specification (SRS) documents. Implementation of this modeling is used to develops Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). Because ERP have a coverage of applications in large numbers and complexly relations, it is necessary to use Agile Model Driven Design (AMDD) approach as an advanced method to transforms MDA into components of application modules with efficiently and accurately. Finally, through the using of the CAF, give good achievement in fullfilment the needs from all stakeholders that are involved in the overall process stage of Rational Unified Process (RUP), and also obtaining a high satisfaction to fullfiled the functionality features of the ERP software in PT. Iglas (Persero) Gresik.

Development of a First-of-a-Kind Deterministic Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Sacit M; Kisner, Roger A; Muhlheim, Michael David

2015-07-01

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives where each alternative offers a different approach or path to move from a given state or condition to a desired state or condition. The generation of consistent decisions requires that a structured, coherent process be defined, immediately leading to a decision-making framework. The overall objective of the generalized framework is for it to be adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or nomore » human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision- making modules that can perform a given set of tasks reliably. Risk-informed decision making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The implementation of the probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the proposed supervisory control system was detailed in previous milestone reports. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses variable sensor data (e.g., outlet temperature) and calculates where it is within the challenge state, its trajectory, and margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. Metrics to be evaluated include stability, cost, time to complete (action), power level, etc. The integration of deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses (i.e., neutronics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulics) and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermal-hydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies.« less

Family Systems Theory: A Unifying Framework for Codependence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prest, Layne A.; Protinsky, Howard

1993-01-01

Considers addictions and construct of codependence. Offers critical review and synthesis of codependency literature, along with an intergenerational family systems framework for conceptualizing the relationship of the dysfunctional family to the construct of codependence. Presents theoretical basis for systemic clinical work and research in this…

[Research on tumor information grid framework].

PubMed

Zhang, Haowei; Qin, Zhu; Liu, Ying; Tan, Jianghao; Cao, Haitao; Chen, Youping; Zhang, Ke; Ding, Yuqing

2013-10-01

In order to realize tumor disease information sharing and unified management, we utilized grid technology to make the data and software resources which distributed in various medical institutions for effective integration so that we could make the heterogeneous resources consistent and interoperable in both semantics and syntax aspects. This article describes the tumor grid framework, the type of the service being packaged in Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and extensible markup language schemas definition (XSD), the client use the serialized document to operate the distributed resources. The service objects could be built by Unified Modeling Language (UML) as middle ware to create application programming interface. All of the grid resources are registered in the index and released in the form of Web Services based on Web Services Resource Framework (WSRF). Using the system we can build a multi-center, large sample and networking tumor disease resource sharing framework to improve the level of development in medical scientific research institutions and the patient's quality of life.

Experimental analysis of chaotic neural network models for combinatorial optimization under a unifying framework.

PubMed

Kwok, T; Smith, K A

2000-09-01

The aim of this paper is to study both the theoretical and experimental properties of chaotic neural network (CNN) models for solving combinatorial optimization problems. Previously we have proposed a unifying framework which encompasses the three main model types, namely, Chen and Aihara's chaotic simulated annealing (CSA) with decaying self-coupling, Wang and Smith's CSA with decaying timestep, and the Hopfield network with chaotic noise. Each of these models can be represented as a special case under the framework for certain conditions. This paper combines the framework with experimental results to provide new insights into the effect of the chaotic neurodynamics of each model. By solving the N-queen problem of various sizes with computer simulations, the CNN models are compared in different parameter spaces, with optimization performance measured in terms of feasibility, efficiency, robustness and scalability. Furthermore, characteristic chaotic neurodynamics crucial to effective optimization are identified, together with a guide to choosing the corresponding model parameters.

Promoter-enhancer interactions identified from Hi-C data using probabilistic models and hierarchical topological domains.

PubMed

Ron, Gil; Globerson, Yuval; Moran, Dror; Kaplan, Tommy

2017-12-21

Proximity-ligation methods such as Hi-C allow us to map physical DNA-DNA interactions along the genome, and reveal its organization into topologically associating domains (TADs). As the Hi-C data accumulate, computational methods were developed for identifying domain borders in multiple cell types and organisms. Here, we present PSYCHIC, a computational approach for analyzing Hi-C data and identifying promoter-enhancer interactions. We use a unified probabilistic model to segment the genome into domains, which we then merge hierarchically and fit using a local background model, allowing us to identify over-represented DNA-DNA interactions across the genome. By analyzing the published Hi-C data sets in human and mouse, we identify hundreds of thousands of putative enhancers and their target genes, and compile an extensive genome-wide catalog of gene regulation in human and mouse. As we show, our predictions are highly enriched for ChIP-seq and DNA accessibility data, evolutionary conservation, eQTLs and other DNA-DNA interaction data.

Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

PubMed Central

Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

2012-01-01

This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Gove, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

2010-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the Maghreb countries in the Southern Mediterranean and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. By strongly including the seismic engineering community, the project maintains a direct connection to the Eurocode 8 applications and the definition of the Nationally Determined Parameters, through the participation of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in the definition of the output specification requirements and in the hazard validation. SHARE will thus produce direct outputs for risk assessment. With this contribution, we focus on providing an overview of the goals and current achievement of the project.

Concentration-driven models revisited: towards a unified framework to model settling tanks in water resource recovery facilities.

PubMed

Torfs, Elena; Martí, M Carmen; Locatelli, Florent; Balemans, Sophie; Bürger, Raimund; Diehl, Stefan; Laurent, Julien; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; François, Pierre; Nopens, Ingmar

2017-02-01

A new perspective on the modelling of settling behaviour in water resource recovery facilities is introduced. The ultimate goal is to describe in a unified way the processes taking place both in primary settling tanks (PSTs) and secondary settling tanks (SSTs) for a more detailed operation and control. First, experimental evidence is provided, pointing out distributed particle properties (such as size, shape, density, porosity, and flocculation state) as an important common source of distributed settling behaviour in different settling unit processes and throughout different settling regimes (discrete, hindered and compression settling). Subsequently, a unified model framework that considers several particle classes is proposed in order to describe distributions in settling behaviour as well as the effect of variations in particle properties on the settling process. The result is a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) that are valid from dilute concentrations, where they correspond to discrete settling, to concentrated suspensions, where they correspond to compression settling. Consequently, these PDEs model both PSTs and SSTs.

Real-time probabilistic covariance tracking with efficient model update.

PubMed

Wu, Yi; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Jinqiao; Lu, Hanqing; Wang, Jun; Ling, Haibin; Blasch, Erik; Bai, Li

2012-05-01

The recently proposed covariance region descriptor has been proven robust and versatile for a modest computational cost. The covariance matrix enables efficient fusion of different types of features, where the spatial and statistical properties, as well as their correlation, are characterized. The similarity between two covariance descriptors is measured on Riemannian manifolds. Based on the same metric but with a probabilistic framework, we propose a novel tracking approach on Riemannian manifolds with a novel incremental covariance tensor learning (ICTL). To address the appearance variations, ICTL incrementally learns a low-dimensional covariance tensor representation and efficiently adapts online to appearance changes of the target with only O(1) computational complexity, resulting in a real-time performance. The covariance-based representation and the ICTL are then combined with the particle filter framework to allow better handling of background clutter, as well as the temporary occlusions. We test the proposed probabilistic ICTL tracker on numerous benchmark sequences involving different types of challenges including occlusions and variations in illumination, scale, and pose. The proposed approach demonstrates excellent real-time performance, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in comparison with several previously proposed trackers.

Efficient Location Uncertainty Treatment for Probabilistic Modelling of Portfolio Loss from Earthquake Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheingraber, Christoph; Käser, Martin; Allmann, Alexander

2017-04-01

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method for modelling loss from earthquake events. In the insurance industry, it is widely employed for probabilistic modelling of loss to a distributed portfolio. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown, which results in considerable loss uncertainty. The treatment of exposure uncertainty has already been identified as an area where PSRA would benefit from increased research attention. However, so far, epistemic location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. We propose a new framework for efficient treatment of location uncertainty. To demonstrate the usefulness of this novel method, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling real-world portfolios is systematically analyzed. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. Several sampling criteria to increase the computational efficiency of the framework are proposed and put into the wider context of well-established Monte-Carlo variance reduction techniques. The performance of each of the proposed criteria is analyzed.

Non-Gaussian spatiotemporal simulation of multisite daily precipitation: downscaling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, M. A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Chebana, F.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic regression approaches for downscaling daily precipitation are very useful. They provide the whole conditional distribution at each forecast step to better represent the temporal variability. The question addressed in this paper is: how to simulate spatiotemporal characteristics of multisite daily precipitation from probabilistic regression models? Recent publications point out the complexity of multisite properties of daily precipitation and highlight the need for using a non-Gaussian flexible tool. This work proposes a reasonable compromise between simplicity and flexibility avoiding model misspecification. A suitable nonparametric bootstrapping (NB) technique is adopted. A downscaling model which merges a vector generalized linear model (VGLM as a probabilistic regression tool) and the proposed bootstrapping technique is introduced to simulate realistic multisite precipitation series. The model is applied to data sets from the southern part of the province of Quebec, Canada. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing both at-site properties and the spatial structure of daily precipitations. Results indicate the superiority of the proposed NB technique, over a multivariate autoregressive Gaussian framework (i.e. Gaussian copula).

Probabilistic Common Spatial Patterns for Multichannel EEG Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhe; Gao, Xiaorong; Li, Yuanqing; Brown, Emery N.; Gao, Shangkai

2015-01-01

Common spatial patterns (CSP) is a well-known spatial filtering algorithm for multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis. In this paper, we cast the CSP algorithm in a probabilistic modeling setting. Specifically, probabilistic CSP (P-CSP) is proposed as a generic EEG spatio-temporal modeling framework that subsumes the CSP and regularized CSP algorithms. The proposed framework enables us to resolve the overfitting issue of CSP in a principled manner. We derive statistical inference algorithms that can alleviate the issue of local optima. In particular, an efficient algorithm based on eigendecomposition is developed for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in the case of isotropic noise. For more general cases, a variational algorithm is developed for group-wise sparse Bayesian learning for the P-CSP model and for automatically determining the model size. The two proposed algorithms are validated on a simulated data set. Their practical efficacy is also demonstrated by successful applications to single-trial classifications of three motor imagery EEG data sets and by the spatio-temporal pattern analysis of one EEG data set recorded in a Stroop color naming task. PMID:26005228

A quasi-likelihood approach to non-negative matrix factorization

PubMed Central

Devarajan, Karthik; Cheung, Vincent C.K.

2017-01-01

A unified approach to non-negative matrix factorization based on the theory of generalized linear models is proposed. This approach embeds a variety of statistical models, including the exponential family, within a single theoretical framework and provides a unified view of such factorizations from the perspective of quasi-likelihood. Using this framework, a family of algorithms for handling signal-dependent noise is developed and its convergence proven using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. In addition, a measure to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the resulting factorization is described. The proposed methods allow modeling of non-linear effects via appropriate link functions and are illustrated using an application in biomedical signal processing. PMID:27348511

Groundwater modelling in decision support: reflections on a unified conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, John; Simmons, Craig T.

2013-11-01

Groundwater models are commonly used as basis for environmental decision-making. There has been discussion and debate in recent times regarding the issue of model simplicity and complexity. This paper contributes to this ongoing discourse. The selection of an appropriate level of model structural and parameterization complexity is not a simple matter. Although the metrics on which such selection should be based are simple, there are many competing, and often unquantifiable, considerations which must be taken into account as these metrics are applied. A unified conceptual framework is introduced and described which is intended to underpin groundwater modelling in decision support with a direct focus on matters regarding model simplicity and complexity.

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

A Unified Model of Geostrophic Adjustment and Frontogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, John; Shakespeare, Callum

2013-11-01

Fronts, or regions with strong horizontal density gradients, are ubiquitous and dynamically important features of the ocean and atmosphere. In the ocean, fronts are associated with enhanced air-sea fluxes, turbulence, and biological productivity, while atmospheric fronts are associated with some of the most extreme weather events. Here, we describe a new mathematical framework for describing the formation of fronts, or frontogenesis. This framework unifies two classical problems in geophysical fluid dynamics, geostrophic adjustment and strain-driven frontogenesis, and provides a number of important extensions beyond previous efforts. The model solutions closely match numerical simulations during the early stages of frontogenesis, and provide a means to describe the development of turbulence at mature fronts.

Integrating diverse databases into an unified analysis framework: a Galaxy approach

PubMed Central

Blankenberg, Daniel; Coraor, Nathan; Von Kuster, Gregory; Taylor, James; Nekrutenko, Anton

2011-01-01

Recent technological advances have lead to the ability to generate large amounts of data for model and non-model organisms. Whereas, in the past, there have been a relatively small number of central repositories that serve genomic data, an increasing number of distinct specialized data repositories and resources have been established. Here, we describe a generic approach that provides for the integration of a diverse spectrum of data resources into a unified analysis framework, Galaxy (http://usegalaxy.org). This approach allows the simplified coupling of external data resources with the data analysis tools available to Galaxy users, while leveraging the native data mining facilities of the external data resources. Database URL: http://usegalaxy.org PMID:21531983

Unifying Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goradia, Shantilal

2013-04-01

Century old GR fails to unify quantum physics, nuclear force or distinguish between the mass of living bodies from inert mass. Probabilistic gravity [1] explains strong coupling (nuclear force). The natural log of the age of the universe, 10E60 in Planck times, equaling 137 (1/Alpha) extends physics to deeper science, if we stand on the shoulders of giants like Feynman and Gamow. Implications of [1] are that it is not the earth, but M and S numbers of the particles of the earth are remotely interacting with corresponding numbers of the particles of the moon and the sun respectively, neglecting other heavenly bodies in this short draft. This new physics is likely to enable creative scientific minds to throw light on a theoretical basis for an otherwise arbitrary cosmological constant, uniformity of microwave background, further vindication of Boltzmann, quantum informatics, Einstein’s later publicized views and more, eliminating the need to spend money for implicitly nonexistent quantum gravity and graviton.[4pt] [1] Journal of Physical Science and Applications 2 (7) (2012) 265-268.

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cranmer, Steven R.; Wagner, William (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made substantial progress toward the goal of producing a unified model of the basic physical processes responsible for solar wind acceleration. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a 1D model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in Year 2 are divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Turbulence. lb. Focused Study of Non - WKB Alfven Wave Rejection. and 2. The Unified Model Code. We have continued the development of the computational model of a time-study open flux tube in the extended corona. The proton-electron Monte Carlo model is being tested, and collisionless wave-particle interactions are being included. In order to better understand how to easily incorporate various kinds of wave-particle processes into the code, the PI performed a detailed study of the so-called "Ito Calculus", i.e., the mathematical theory of how to update the positions of particles in a probabilistic manner when their motions are governed by diffusion in velocity space.

Putting the School Interoperability Framework to the Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercurius, Neil; Burton, Glenn; Hopkins, Bill; Larsen, Hans

2004-01-01

The Jurupa Unified School District in Southern California recently partnered with Microsoft, Dell and the Zone Integration Group for the implementation of a School Interoperability Framework (SIF) database repository model throughout the district (Magner 2002). A two-week project--the Integrated District Education Applications System, better known…

Generalized Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders; Pickles, Andrew

2004-01-01

A unifying framework for generalized multilevel structural equation modeling is introduced. The models in the framework, called generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM), combine features of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and structural equation models (SEM) and consist of a response model and a structural model for the latent…

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Synergy of the Developed 6D BIM Framework and Conception of the nD BIM Framework and nD BIM Process Ontology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Keeffe, Shawn Edward

2013-01-01

The author developed a unified nD framework and process ontology for Building Information Modeling (BIM). The research includes a framework developed for 6D BIM, nD BIM, and nD ontology that defines the domain and sub-domain constructs for future nD BIM dimensions. The nD ontology defines the relationships of kinds within any new proposed…

Failure to Visualize and Describe Operations: The Evolution and Implementation of the Operational Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

Operations, and Unified Land Operations) and the US Army’s leader development model identifies how the education , training, and experience of field-grade...officers have failed in their incorporation of the framework because they lack the education , training, and experience for the use of the framework... education , training, and experience of field-grade officers at the division level have influenced their use of the operational framework. The cause for

Parametric models to relate spike train and LFP dynamics with neural information processing.

PubMed

Banerjee, Arpan; Dean, Heather L; Pesaran, Bijan

2012-01-01

Spike trains and local field potentials (LFPs) resulting from extracellular current flows provide a substrate for neural information processing. Understanding the neural code from simultaneous spike-field recordings and subsequent decoding of information processing events will have widespread applications. One way to demonstrate an understanding of the neural code, with particular advantages for the development of applications, is to formulate a parametric statistical model of neural activity and its covariates. Here, we propose a set of parametric spike-field models (unified models) that can be used with existing decoding algorithms to reveal the timing of task or stimulus specific processing. Our proposed unified modeling framework captures the effects of two important features of information processing: time-varying stimulus-driven inputs and ongoing background activity that occurs even in the absence of environmental inputs. We have applied this framework for decoding neural latencies in simulated and experimentally recorded spike-field sessions obtained from the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) of awake, behaving monkeys performing cued look-and-reach movements to spatial targets. Using both simulated and experimental data, we find that estimates of trial-by-trial parameters are not significantly affected by the presence of ongoing background activity. However, including background activity in the unified model improves goodness of fit for predicting individual spiking events. Uncovering the relationship between the model parameters and the timing of movements offers new ways to test hypotheses about the relationship between neural activity and behavior. We obtained significant spike-field onset time correlations from single trials using a previously published data set where significantly strong correlation was only obtained through trial averaging. We also found that unified models extracted a stronger relationship between neural response latency and trial-by-trial behavioral performance than existing models of neural information processing. Our results highlight the utility of the unified modeling framework for characterizing spike-LFP recordings obtained during behavioral performance.

Quantum probability and Hilbert's sixth problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accardi, Luigi

2018-04-01

With the birth of quantum mechanics, the two disciplines that Hilbert proposed to axiomatize, probability and mechanics, became entangled and a new probabilistic model arose in addition to the classical one. Thus, to meet Hilbert's challenge, an axiomatization should account deductively for the basic features of all three disciplines. This goal was achieved within the framework of quantum probability. The present paper surveys the quantum probabilistic axiomatization. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

Boosting probabilistic graphical model inference by incorporating prior knowledge from multiple sources.

PubMed

Praveen, Paurush; Fröhlich, Holger

2013-01-01

Inferring regulatory networks from experimental data via probabilistic graphical models is a popular framework to gain insights into biological systems. However, the inherent noise in experimental data coupled with a limited sample size reduces the performance of network reverse engineering. Prior knowledge from existing sources of biological information can address this low signal to noise problem by biasing the network inference towards biologically plausible network structures. Although integrating various sources of information is desirable, their heterogeneous nature makes this task challenging. We propose two computational methods to incorporate various information sources into a probabilistic consensus structure prior to be used in graphical model inference. Our first model, called Latent Factor Model (LFM), assumes a high degree of correlation among external information sources and reconstructs a hidden variable as a common source in a Bayesian manner. The second model, a Noisy-OR, picks up the strongest support for an interaction among information sources in a probabilistic fashion. Our extensive computational studies on KEGG signaling pathways as well as on gene expression data from breast cancer and yeast heat shock response reveal that both approaches can significantly enhance the reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian Networks compared to other competing methods as well as to the situation without any prior. Our framework allows for using diverse information sources, like pathway databases, GO terms and protein domain data, etc. and is flexible enough to integrate new sources, if available.

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

2018-03-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

Monitoring and modeling as a continuing learning process: the use of hydrological models in a general probabilistic framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, G.; Gräff, T.; Reinstorf, F.; Oswald, S. E.

2012-04-01

Nowadays uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are considered basic tools for the assessment of hydrological models and the evaluation of the most important sources of uncertainty. In this context, in the last decades several methods have been developed and applied in different hydrological conditions. However, in most of the cases, the studies have been done by investigating mainly the influence of the parameter uncertainty on the simulated outputs and few approaches tried to consider also other sources of uncertainty i.e. input and model structure. Moreover, several constrains arise when spatially distributed parameters are involved. To overcome these limitations a general probabilistic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations and the Sobol method has been proposed. In this study, the general probabilistic framework was applied at field scale using a 1D physical-based hydrological model (SWAP). Furthermore, the framework was extended at catchment scale in combination with a spatially distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN). The models are applied in two different experimental sites in Germany: a relatively flat cropped field close to Potsdam (Brandenburg) and a small mountainous catchment with agricultural land use (Schaefertal, Harz Mountains). For both cases, input and parameters are considered as major sources of uncertainty. Evaluation of the models was based on soil moisture detected at plot scale in different depths and, for the catchment site, also with daily discharge values. The study shows how the framework can take into account all the various sources of uncertainty i.e. input data, parameters (either in scalar or spatially distributed form) and model structures. The framework can be used in a loop in order to optimize further monitoring activities used to improve the performance of the model. In the particular applications, the results show how the sources of uncertainty are specific for each process considered. The influence of the input data as well as the presence of compensating errors become clear by the different processes simulated.

A unifying framework for systems modeling, control systems design, and system operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dvorak, Daniel L.; Indictor, Mark B.; Ingham, Michel D.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Stringfellow, Margaret V.

2005-01-01

Current engineering practice in the analysis and design of large-scale multi-disciplinary control systems is typified by some form of decomposition- whether functional or physical or discipline-based-that enables multiple teams to work in parallel and in relative isolation. Too often, the resulting system after integration is an awkward marriage of different control and data mechanisms with poor end-to-end accountability. System of systems engineering, which faces this problem on a large scale, cries out for a unifying framework to guide analysis, design, and operation. This paper describes such a framework based on a state-, model-, and goal-based architecture for semi-autonomous control systems that guides analysis and modeling, shapes control system software design, and directly specifies operational intent. This paper illustrates the key concepts in the context of a large-scale, concurrent, globally distributed system of systems: NASA's proposed Array-based Deep Space Network.

Toward a unified approach to dose-response modeling in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian

2010-01-01

This study reviews dose-response models that are used in ecotoxicology. The focus lies on clarification of differences and similarities between models, and as a side effect, their different guises in ecotoxicology are unravelled. A look at frequently used dose-response models reveals major discrepancies, among other things in naming conventions. Therefore, there is a need for a unified view on dose-response modeling in order to improve the understanding of it and to facilitate communication and comparison of findings across studies, thus realizing its full potential. This study attempts to establish a general framework that encompasses most dose-response models that are of interest to ecotoxicologists in practice. The framework includes commonly used models such as the log-logistic and Weibull models, but also features entire suites of models as found in various guidance documents. An outline on how the proposed framework can be implemented in statistical software systems is also provided.

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations

PubMed Central

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A.; Girolami, Mark

2015-01-01

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations. PMID:26346321

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

PubMed

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

2015-07-08

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

From information processing to decisions: Formalizing and comparing psychologically plausible choice models.

PubMed

Heck, Daniel W; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

2017-08-01

Decision strategies explain how people integrate multiple sources of information to make probabilistic inferences. In the past decade, increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to determine which strategy explains decision behavior best. We extend these efforts to test psychologically more plausible models (i.e., strategies), including a new, probabilistic version of the take-the-best (TTB) heuristic that implements a rank order of error probabilities based on sequential processing. Within a coherent statistical framework, deterministic and probabilistic versions of TTB and other strategies can directly be compared using model selection by minimum description length or the Bayes factor. In an experiment with inferences from given information, only three of 104 participants were best described by the psychologically plausible, probabilistic version of TTB. Similar as in previous studies, most participants were classified as users of weighted-additive, a strategy that integrates all available information and approximates rational decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

Discounting of food, sex, and money.

PubMed

Holt, Daniel D; Newquist, Matthew H; Smits, Rochelle R; Tiry, Andrew M

2014-06-01

Discounting is a useful framework for understanding choice involving a range of delayed and probabilistic outcomes (e.g., money, food, drugs), but relatively few studies have examined how people discount other commodities (e.g., entertainment, sex). Using a novel discounting task, where the length of a line represented the value of an outcome and was adjusted using a staircase procedure, we replicated previous findings showing that individuals discount delayed and probabilistic outcomes in a manner well described by a hyperbola-like function. In addition, we found strong positive correlations between discounting rates of delayed, but not probabilistic, outcomes. This suggests that discounting of delayed outcomes may be relatively predictable across outcome types but that discounting of probabilistic outcomes may depend more on specific contexts. The generality of delay discounting and potential context dependence of probability discounting may provide important information regarding factors contributing to choice behavior.

Theoretical Foundation of Copernicus: A Unified System for Trajectory Design and Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocampo, Cesar; Senent, Juan S.; Williams, Jacob

2010-01-01

The fundamental methods are described for the general spacecraft trajectory design and optimization software system called Copernicus. The methods rely on a unified framework that is used to model, design, and optimize spacecraft trajectories that may operate in complex gravitational force fields, use multiple propulsion systems, and involve multiple spacecraft. The trajectory model, with its associated equations of motion and maneuver models, are discussed.

A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagos, Ricardo; Wright, Randall

2005-01-01

Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis. We propose a new framework, based on explicit micro foundations, within which macro…

Generalizability Theory as a Unifying Framework of Measurement Reliability in Adolescent Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Xitao; Sun, Shaojing

2014-01-01

In adolescence research, the treatment of measurement reliability is often fragmented, and it is not always clear how different reliability coefficients are related. We show that generalizability theory (G-theory) is a comprehensive framework of measurement reliability, encompassing all other reliability methods (e.g., Pearson "r,"…

Unified Bayesian Estimator of EEG Reference at Infinity: rREST (Regularized Reference Electrode Standardization Technique).

PubMed

Hu, Shiang; Yao, Dezhong; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A

2018-01-01

The choice of reference for the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a long-lasting unsolved issue resulting in inconsistent usages and endless debates. Currently, both the average reference (AR) and the reference electrode standardization technique (REST) are two primary, apparently irreconcilable contenders. We propose a theoretical framework to resolve this reference issue by formulating both (a) estimation of potentials at infinity, and (b) determination of the reference, as a unified Bayesian linear inverse problem, which can be solved by maximum a posterior estimation. We find that AR and REST are very particular cases of this unified framework: AR results from biophysically non-informative prior; while REST utilizes the prior based on the EEG generative model. To allow for simultaneous denoising and reference estimation, we develop the regularized versions of AR and REST, named rAR and rREST, respectively. Both depend on a regularization parameter that is the noise to signal variance ratio. Traditional and new estimators are evaluated with this framework, by both simulations and analysis of real resting EEGs. Toward this end, we leverage the MRI and EEG data from 89 subjects which participated in the Cuban Human Brain Mapping Project. Generated artificial EEGs-with a known ground truth, show that relative error in estimating the EEG potentials at infinity is lowest for rREST. It also reveals that realistic volume conductor models improve the performances of REST and rREST. Importantly, for practical applications, it is shown that an average lead field gives the results comparable to the individual lead field. Finally, it is shown that the selection of the regularization parameter with Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) is close to the "oracle" choice based on the ground truth. When evaluated with the real 89 resting state EEGs, rREST consistently yields the lowest GCV. This study provides a novel perspective to the EEG reference problem by means of a unified inverse solution framework. It may allow additional principled theoretical formulations and numerical evaluation of performance.

RT-18: Value of Flexibility. Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-25

an analytical framework based on sound mathematical constructs. A review of the current state-of-the-art showed that there is little unifying theory...framework that is mathematically consistent, domain independent and applicable under varying information levels. This report presents our advances in...During this period, we also explored the development of an analytical framework based on sound mathematical constructs. A review of the current state

Framework Design of Unified Cross-Authentication Based on the Fourth Platform Integrated Payment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Xu; Yujin, He

The essay advances a unified authentication based on the fourth integrated payment platform. The research aims at improving the compatibility of the authentication in electronic business and providing a reference for the establishment of credit system by seeking a way to carry out a standard unified authentication on a integrated payment platform. The essay introduces the concept of the forth integrated payment platform and finally put forward the whole structure and different components. The main issue of the essay is about the design of the credit system of the fourth integrated payment platform and the PKI/CA structure design.

The Smoothed Dirichlet Distribution: Understanding Cross-Entropy Ranking in Information Retrieval

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

reflect those of the spon- sor. viii ABSTRACT Unigram Language modeling is a successful probabilistic framework for Information Retrieval (IR) that uses...the Relevance model (RM), a state-of-the-art model for IR in the language modeling framework that uses the same cross-entropy as its ranking function...In addition, the SD based classifier provides more flexibility than RM in modeling documents owing to a consistent generative framework . We

XID+: Next generation XID development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, Peter

2017-04-01

XID+ is a prior-based source extraction tool which carries out photometry in the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) maps at the positions of known sources. It uses a probabilistic Bayesian framework that provides a natural framework in which to include prior information, and uses the Bayesian inference tool Stan to obtain the full posterior probability distribution on flux estimates.

Energy and Power Aware Computing Through Management of Computational Entropy

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

18 2.4.1 ACIP living framework forum task...This research focused on two sub- tasks: (1) Assessing the need and planning for a potential “Living Framework Forum ” (LFF) software architecture...probabilistic switching with plausible device realizations to save energy in our patent application [35]. In [35], we showed an introverted switch in

A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more traditional methods to display ternary probabilistic forecasts. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty area-specific heat waves or cold snaps, in order to effectively target resources to those areas most at risk, for a given season or year. It is hoped that this visualisation tool will facilitate the interpretation of the probabilistic forecasts not only for public health decision makers but also within a multi-sectoral climate service framework.

Spatiotemporal movement planning and rapid adaptation for manual interaction.

PubMed

Huber, Markus; Kupferberg, Aleksandra; Lenz, Claus; Knoll, Alois; Brandt, Thomas; Glasauer, Stefan

2013-01-01

Many everyday tasks require the ability of two or more individuals to coordinate their actions with others to increase efficiency. Such an increase in efficiency can often be observed even after only very few trials. Previous work suggests that such behavioral adaptation can be explained within a probabilistic framework that integrates sensory input and prior experience. Even though higher cognitive abilities such as intention recognition have been described as probabilistic estimation depending on an internal model of the other agent, it is not clear whether much simpler daily interaction is consistent with a probabilistic framework. Here, we investigate whether the mechanisms underlying efficient coordination during manual interactions can be understood as probabilistic optimization. For this purpose we studied in several experiments a simple manual handover task concentrating on the action of the receiver. We found that the duration until the receiver reacts to the handover decreases over trials, but strongly depends on the position of the handover. We then replaced the human deliverer by different types of robots to further investigate the influence of the delivering movement on the reaction of the receiver. Durations were found to depend on movement kinematics and the robot's joint configuration. Modeling the task was based on the assumption that the receiver's decision to act is based on the accumulated evidence for a specific handover position. The evidence for this handover position is collected from observing the hand movement of the deliverer over time and, if appropriate, by integrating this sensory likelihood with prior expectation that is updated over trials. The close match of model simulations and experimental results shows that the efficiency of handover coordination can be explained by an adaptive probabilistic fusion of a-priori expectation and online estimation.

Bell-Boole Inequality: Nonlocality or Probabilistic Incompatibility of Random Variables?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2008-06-01

The main aim of this report is to inform the quantum information community about investigations on the problem of probabilistic compatibility of a family of random variables: a possibility to realize such a family on the basis of a single probability measure (to construct a single Kolmogorov probability space). These investigations were started hundred of years ago by J. Boole (who invented Boolean algebras). The complete solution of the problem was obtained by Soviet mathematician Vorobjev in 60th. Surprisingly probabilists and statisticians obtained inequalities for probabilities and correlations among which one can find the famous Bell’s inequality and its generalizations. Such inequalities appeared simply as constraints for probabilistic compatibility. In this framework one can not see a priori any link to such problems as nonlocality and “death of reality” which are typically linked to Bell’s type inequalities in physical literature. We analyze the difference between positions of mathematicians and quantum physicists. In particular, we found that one of the most reasonable explanations of probabilistic incompatibility is mixing in Bell’s type inequalities statistical data from a number of experiments performed under different experimental contexts.

CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, R.E.S.; Seed, R.B.; Kayen, R.E.; Stewart, J.P.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Cetin, K.O.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of "thin" liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., "fines" adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performancebased engineering applications, Bayesian "regression" methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations. ?? 2006 ASCE.

A unified framework for building high performance DVEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Kaibin; Ma, Zhixia; Xiong, Hua

2011-10-01

A unified framework for integrating PC cluster based parallel rendering with distributed virtual environments (DVEs) is presented in this paper. While various scene graphs have been proposed in DVEs, it is difficult to enable collaboration of different scene graphs. This paper proposes a technique for non-distributed scene graphs with the capability of object and event distribution. With the increase of graphics data, DVEs require more powerful rendering ability. But general scene graphs are inefficient in parallel rendering. The paper also proposes a technique to connect a DVE and a PC cluster based parallel rendering environment. A distributed multi-player video game is developed to show the interaction of different scene graphs and the parallel rendering performance on a large tiled display wall.

Unified Behavior Framework for Discrete Event Simulation Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

I would like to thank Dr. Hodson for his guidance and direction throughout the AFIT program. I also would like to thank my thesis committee members...SPA Sense-Plan-Act SSL System Service Layer TCA Task Control Architecture TRP Teleo-Reactive Program UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UBF Unified Behavior...a teleo-reactive architecture [11]. Teleo-Reactive Programs ( TRPs ) are composed of a list of rules, where each has a condition and an action. When the

Evolutionary game theory meets social science: is there a unifying rule for human cooperation?

PubMed

Rosas, Alejandro

2010-05-21

Evolutionary game theory has shown that human cooperation thrives in different types of social interactions with a PD structure. Models treat the cooperative strategies within the different frameworks as discrete entities and sometimes even as contenders. Whereas strong reciprocity was acclaimed as superior to classic reciprocity for its ability to defeat defectors in public goods games, recent experiments and simulations show that costly punishment fails to promote cooperation in the IR and DR games, where classic reciprocity succeeds. My aim is to show that cooperative strategies across frameworks are capable of a unified treatment, for they are governed by a common underlying rule or norm. An analysis of the reputation and action rules that govern some representative cooperative strategies both in models and in economic experiments confirms that the different frameworks share a conditional action rule and several reputation rules. The common conditional rule contains an option between costly punishment and withholding benefits that provides alternative enforcement methods against defectors. Depending on the framework, individuals can switch to the appropriate strategy and method of enforcement. The stability of human cooperation looks more promising if one mechanism controls successful strategies across frameworks. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

General System Theory: Toward a Conceptual Framework for Science and Technology Education for All.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, David; Stroup, Walter

1993-01-01

Suggests using general system theory as a unifying theoretical framework for science and technology education for all. Five reasons are articulated: the multidisciplinary nature of systems theory, the ability to engage complexity, the capacity to describe system dynamics, the ability to represent the relationship between microlevel and…

Making Learning Personally Meaningful: A New Framework for Relevance Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priniski, Stacy J.; Hecht, Cameron A.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.

2018-01-01

Personal relevance goes by many names in the motivation literature, stemming from a number of theoretical frameworks. Currently these lines of research are being conducted in parallel with little synthesis across them, perhaps because there is no unifying definition of the relevance construct within which this research can be situated. In this…

Unifying Different Theories of Learning: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy Phuong

2008-01-01

The main aim of this research study was to test out a conceptual model encompassing the theoretical frameworks of achievement goals, study processing strategies, effort, and reflective thinking practice. In particular, it was postulated that the causal influences of achievement goals on academic performance are direct and indirect through study…

Enabling Curriculum Change in Physical Education: The Interplay between Policy Constructors and Practitioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacLean, Justine; Mulholland, Rosemary; Gray, Shirley; Horrell, Andrew

2015-01-01

Background: Curriculum for Excellence, a new national policy initiative in Scottish Schools, provides a unified curricular framework for children aged 3-18. Within this framework, Physical Education (PE) now forms part of a collective alongside physical activity and sport, subsumed by the newly created curriculum area of "Health and…

Disruption of the Right Temporoparietal Junction Impairs Probabilistic Belief Updating.

PubMed

Mengotti, Paola; Dombert, Pascasie L; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2017-05-31

Generating and updating probabilistic models of the environment is a fundamental modus operandi of the human brain. Although crucial for various cognitive functions, the neural mechanisms of these inference processes remain to be elucidated. Here, we show the causal involvement of the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) in updating probabilistic beliefs and we provide new insights into the chronometry of the process by combining online transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with computational modeling of behavioral responses. Female and male participants performed a modified location-cueing paradigm, where false information about the percentage of cue validity (%CV) was provided in half of the experimental blocks to prompt updating of prior expectations. Online double-pulse TMS over rTPJ 300 ms (but not 50 ms) after target appearance selectively decreased participants' updating of false prior beliefs concerning %CV, reflected in a decreased learning rate of a Rescorla-Wagner model. Online TMS over rTPJ also impacted on participants' explicit beliefs, causing them to overestimate %CV. These results confirm the involvement of rTPJ in updating of probabilistic beliefs, thereby advancing our understanding of this area's function during cognitive processing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Contemporary views propose that the brain maintains probabilistic models of the world to minimize surprise about sensory inputs. Here, we provide evidence that the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is causally involved in this process. Because neuroimaging has suggested that rTPJ is implicated in divergent cognitive domains, the demonstration of an involvement in updating internal models provides a novel unifying explanation for these findings. We used computational modeling to characterize how participants change their beliefs after new observations. By interfering with rTPJ activity through online transcranial magnetic stimulation, we showed that participants were less able to update prior beliefs with TMS delivered at 300 ms after target onset. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/375419-10$15.00/0.

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2011-01-01

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Probabilistic Simulation for Combined Cycle Fatigue in Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multifactor interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Trichotomous processes in early memory development, aging, and neurocognitive impairment: a unified theory.

PubMed

Brainerd, C J; Reyna, V F; Howe, M L

2009-10-01

One of the most extensively investigated topics in the adult memory literature, dual memory processes, has had virtually no impact on the study of early memory development. The authors remove the key obstacles to such research by formulating a trichotomous theory of recall that combines the traditional dual processes of recollection and familiarity with a reconstruction process. The theory is then embedded in a hidden Markov model that measures all 3 processes with low-burden tasks that are appropriate for even young children. These techniques are applied to a large corpus of developmental studies of recall, yielding stable findings about the emergence of dual memory processes between childhood and young adulthood and generating tests of many theoretical predictions. The techniques are extended to the study of healthy aging and to the memory sequelae of common forms of neurocognitive impairment, resulting in a theoretical framework that is unified over 4 major domains of memory research: early development, mainstream adult research, aging, and neurocognitive impairment. The techniques are also extended to recognition, creating a unified dual process framework for recall and recognition.

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures: A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Yu, Chingching; Coleman, Justin

This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, J. L.; Neely, M. A.; Curran, F. M.; Christensen, E. R.; Escher, D.; Lovell, N.; Morris, Charles (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Zarekarizi, Mahkameh

In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of data assimilation to quantify initial condition uncertainty with the Monte Carlo ensemble members, rather than relying entirely on the hydrologic model or land surface model to generate a single deterministic initial condition, as currently implemented in the operational drought forecasting systems. Next, the initial condition uncertainty is quantified through data assimilation and coupled with a newly developed probabilistic drought forecasting model using a copula function. The initialmore » condition at each forecast start date are sampled from the data assimilation ensembles for forecast initialization. Finally, seasonal drought forecasting products are generated with the updated initial conditions. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed drought forecasting system, with an application in Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, United States. Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the proposed drought forecasting system significantly improves the seasonal drought forecasting skills and can facilitate the state drought preparation and declaration, at least three months before the official state drought declaration.« less

PROTAX-Sound: A probabilistic framework for automated animal sound identification

PubMed Central

Somervuo, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso

2017-01-01

Autonomous audio recording is stimulating new field in bioacoustics, with a great promise for conducting cost-effective species surveys. One major current challenge is the lack of reliable classifiers capable of multi-species identification. We present PROTAX-Sound, a statistical framework to perform probabilistic classification of animal sounds. PROTAX-Sound is based on a multinomial regression model, and it can utilize as predictors any kind of sound features or classifications produced by other existing algorithms. PROTAX-Sound combines audio and image processing techniques to scan environmental audio files. It identifies regions of interest (a segment of the audio file that contains a vocalization to be classified), extracts acoustic features from them and compares with samples in a reference database. The output of PROTAX-Sound is the probabilistic classification of each vocalization, including the possibility that it represents species not present in the reference database. We demonstrate the performance of PROTAX-Sound by classifying audio from a species-rich case study of tropical birds. The best performing classifier achieved 68% classification accuracy for 200 bird species. PROTAX-Sound improves the classification power of current techniques by combining information from multiple classifiers in a manner that yields calibrated classification probabilities. PMID:28863178

PROTAX-Sound: A probabilistic framework for automated animal sound identification.

PubMed

de Camargo, Ulisses Moliterno; Somervuo, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso

2017-01-01

Autonomous audio recording is stimulating new field in bioacoustics, with a great promise for conducting cost-effective species surveys. One major current challenge is the lack of reliable classifiers capable of multi-species identification. We present PROTAX-Sound, a statistical framework to perform probabilistic classification of animal sounds. PROTAX-Sound is based on a multinomial regression model, and it can utilize as predictors any kind of sound features or classifications produced by other existing algorithms. PROTAX-Sound combines audio and image processing techniques to scan environmental audio files. It identifies regions of interest (a segment of the audio file that contains a vocalization to be classified), extracts acoustic features from them and compares with samples in a reference database. The output of PROTAX-Sound is the probabilistic classification of each vocalization, including the possibility that it represents species not present in the reference database. We demonstrate the performance of PROTAX-Sound by classifying audio from a species-rich case study of tropical birds. The best performing classifier achieved 68% classification accuracy for 200 bird species. PROTAX-Sound improves the classification power of current techniques by combining information from multiple classifiers in a manner that yields calibrated classification probabilities.

Probabilistic grammatical model for helix‐helix contact site classification

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Hidden Markov Models power many state‐of‐the‐art tools in the field of protein bioinformatics. While excelling in their tasks, these methods of protein analysis do not convey directly information on medium‐ and long‐range residue‐residue interactions. This requires an expressive power of at least context‐free grammars. However, application of more powerful grammar formalisms to protein analysis has been surprisingly limited. Results In this work, we present a probabilistic grammatical framework for problem‐specific protein languages and apply it to classification of transmembrane helix‐helix pairs configurations. The core of the model consists of a probabilistic context‐free grammar, automatically inferred by a genetic algorithm from only a generic set of expert‐based rules and positive training samples. The model was applied to produce sequence based descriptors of four classes of transmembrane helix‐helix contact site configurations. The highest performance of the classifiers reached AUCROC of 0.70. The analysis of grammar parse trees revealed the ability of representing structural features of helix‐helix contact sites. Conclusions We demonstrated that our probabilistic context‐free framework for analysis of protein sequences outperforms the state of the art in the task of helix‐helix contact site classification. However, this is achieved without necessarily requiring modeling long range dependencies between interacting residues. A significant feature of our approach is that grammar rules and parse trees are human‐readable. Thus they could provide biologically meaningful information for molecular biologists. PMID:24350601

Boosting Probabilistic Graphical Model Inference by Incorporating Prior Knowledge from Multiple Sources

PubMed Central

Praveen, Paurush; Fröhlich, Holger

2013-01-01

Inferring regulatory networks from experimental data via probabilistic graphical models is a popular framework to gain insights into biological systems. However, the inherent noise in experimental data coupled with a limited sample size reduces the performance of network reverse engineering. Prior knowledge from existing sources of biological information can address this low signal to noise problem by biasing the network inference towards biologically plausible network structures. Although integrating various sources of information is desirable, their heterogeneous nature makes this task challenging. We propose two computational methods to incorporate various information sources into a probabilistic consensus structure prior to be used in graphical model inference. Our first model, called Latent Factor Model (LFM), assumes a high degree of correlation among external information sources and reconstructs a hidden variable as a common source in a Bayesian manner. The second model, a Noisy-OR, picks up the strongest support for an interaction among information sources in a probabilistic fashion. Our extensive computational studies on KEGG signaling pathways as well as on gene expression data from breast cancer and yeast heat shock response reveal that both approaches can significantly enhance the reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian Networks compared to other competing methods as well as to the situation without any prior. Our framework allows for using diverse information sources, like pathway databases, GO terms and protein domain data, etc. and is flexible enough to integrate new sources, if available. PMID:23826291

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Advanced Computational Framework for Environmental Management ZEM, Version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vesselinov, Velimir V.; O'Malley, Daniel; Pandey, Sachin

2016-11-04

Typically environmental management problems require analysis of large and complex data sets originating from concurrent data streams with different data collection frequencies and pedigree. These big data sets require on-the-fly integration into a series of models with different complexity for various types of model analyses where the data are applied as soft and hard model constraints. This is needed to provide fast iterative model analyses based on the latest available data to guide decision-making. Furthermore, the data and model are associated with uncertainties. The uncertainties are probabilistic (e.g. measurement errors) and non-probabilistic (unknowns, e.g. alternative conceptual models characterizing site conditions).more » To address all of these issues, we have developed an integrated framework for real-time data and model analyses for environmental decision-making called ZEM. The framework allows for seamless and on-the-fly integration of data and modeling results for robust and scientifically-defensible decision-making applying advanced decision analyses tools such as Bayesian- Information-Gap Decision Theory (BIG-DT). The framework also includes advanced methods for optimization that are capable of dealing with a large number of unknown model parameters, and surrogate (reduced order) modeling capabilities based on support vector regression techniques. The framework is coded in Julia, a state-of-the-art high-performance programing language (http://julialang.org). The ZEM framework is open-source and can be applied to any environmental management site. The framework will be open-source and released under GPL V3 license.« less

Incorporating networks in a probabilistic graphical model to find drivers for complex human diseases.

PubMed

Mezlini, Aziz M; Goldenberg, Anna

2017-10-01

Discovering genetic mechanisms driving complex diseases is a hard problem. Existing methods often lack power to identify the set of responsible genes. Protein-protein interaction networks have been shown to boost power when detecting gene-disease associations. We introduce a Bayesian framework, Conflux, to find disease associated genes from exome sequencing data using networks as a prior. There are two main advantages to using networks within a probabilistic graphical model. First, networks are noisy and incomplete, a substantial impediment to gene discovery. Incorporating networks into the structure of a probabilistic models for gene inference has less impact on the solution than relying on the noisy network structure directly. Second, using a Bayesian framework we can keep track of the uncertainty of each gene being associated with the phenotype rather than returning a fixed list of genes. We first show that using networks clearly improves gene detection compared to individual gene testing. We then show consistently improved performance of Conflux compared to the state-of-the-art diffusion network-based method Hotnet2 and a variety of other network and variant aggregation methods, using randomly generated and literature-reported gene sets. We test Hotnet2 and Conflux on several network configurations to reveal biases and patterns of false positives and false negatives in each case. Our experiments show that our novel Bayesian framework Conflux incorporates many of the advantages of the current state-of-the-art methods, while offering more flexibility and improved power in many gene-disease association scenarios.

Development of a probabilistic PCB-bioaccumulation model for six fish species in the Hudson River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stackelberg, K. von; Menzie, C.

1995-12-31

In 1984 the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) completed a Feasibility Study on the Hudson River that investigated remedial alternatives and issued a Record of Decision (ROD) later that year. In December 1989 USEPA decided to reassess the No Action decision for Hudson River sediments. This reassessment consists of three phases: Interim Characterization and Evaluation (Phase 1); Further Site Characterization and Analysis (Phase 2); and, Feasibility study (Phase 3). A Phase 1 report was completed in August, 1991. The team then completed a Final Work Plan for Phase 2 in September 1992. This work plan identified various PCB fate andmore » transport modeling activities to support the Hudson River PCB Reassessment Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study (RI/FS). This talk provides a description of the development of a Probabilistic bioaccumulation models to describe the uptake of PCBs on a congener-specific basis in six fish species. The authors have developed a framework for relating body burdens of PCBs in fish to exposure concentrations in Hudson River water and sediments. This framework is used to understand historical and current relationships as well as to predict fish body burdens for future conditions under specific remediation and no action scenarios. The framework incorporates a probabilistic approach to predict distributions in PCB body burdens for selected fish species. These models can predict single population statistics such as the average expected values of PCBs under specific scenarios as well as the distribution of expected concentrations.« less

A Systematic Framework and Nanoperiodic Concept for Unifying Nanoscience: Hard/Soft Nanoelements, Superatoms, Meta-Atoms, New Emerging Properties, Periodic Property Patterns, and Predictive Mendeleev-like Nanoperiodic Tables.

PubMed

Tomalia, Donald A; Khanna, Shiv N

2016-02-24

Development of a central paradigm is undoubtedly the single most influential force responsible for advancing Dalton's 19th century atomic/molecular chemistry concepts to the current maturity enjoyed by traditional chemistry. A similar central dogma for guiding and unifying nanoscience has been missing. This review traces the origins, evolution, and current status of such a critical nanoperiodic concept/framework for defining and unifying nanoscience. Based on parallel efforts and a mutual consensus now shared by both chemists and physicists, a nanoperiodic/systematic framework concept has emerged. This concept is based on the well-documented existence of discrete, nanoscale collections of traditional inorganic/organic atoms referred to as hard and soft superatoms (i.e., nanoelement categories). These nanometric entities are widely recognized to exhibit nanoscale atom mimicry features reminiscent of traditional picoscale atoms. All unique superatom/nanoelement physicochemical features are derived from quantized structural control defined by six critical nanoscale design parameters (CNDPs), namely, size, shape, surface chemistry, flexibility/rigidity, architecture, and elemental composition. These CNDPs determine all intrinsic superatom properties, their combining behavior to form stoichiometric nanocompounds/assemblies as well as to exhibit nanoperiodic properties leading to new nanoperiodic rules and predictive Mendeleev-like nanoperiodic tables, and they portend possible extension of these principles to larger quantized building blocks including meta-atoms.

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-off on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks Part I: Gene Regulatory Networks in Systems and Evolutionary Biology

PubMed Central

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties observed in biological systems at different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be enough to confer intrinsic robustness in order to tolerate intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations, and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. With this, the phenotypic stability of biological network can be maintained, thus guaranteeing phenotype robustness. This paper presents a survey on biological systems and then develops a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation in systems and evolutionary biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, it was discovered that the phenotype robustness criterion for biological networks at different levels relies upon intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness. When this is true, the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in systems and evolutionary biology can also be investigated through their corresponding phenotype robustness criterion from the systematic point of view. PMID:23515240

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-off on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks Part I: Gene Regulatory Networks in Systems and Evolutionary Biology.

PubMed

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties observed in biological systems at different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be enough to confer intrinsic robustness in order to tolerate intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations, and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. With this, the phenotypic stability of biological network can be maintained, thus guaranteeing phenotype robustness. This paper presents a survey on biological systems and then develops a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation in systems and evolutionary biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, it was discovered that the phenotype robustness criterion for biological networks at different levels relies upon intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness. When this is true, the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in systems and evolutionary biology can also be investigated through their corresponding phenotype robustness criterion from the systematic point of view.

A new view of Baryon symmetric cosmology based on grand unified theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecker, F. W.

1981-01-01

Within the framework of grand unified theories, it is shown how spontaneous CP violation leads to a domain structure in the universe with the domains evolving into separate regions of matter and antimatter excesses. Subsequent to exponential horizon growth, this can result in a universe of matter galaxies and antimatter galaxies. Various astrophysical data appear to favor this form of big bang cosmology. Future direct tests for cosmologically significant antimatter are discussed.

SU-F-J-34: Automatic Target-Based Patient Positioning Framework for Image-Guided Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer Treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sasahara, M; Arimura, H; Hirose, T

Purpose: Current image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) procedure is bonebased patient positioning, followed by subjective manual correction using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). This procedure might cause the misalignment of the patient positioning. Automatic target-based patient positioning systems achieve the better reproducibility of patient setup. Our aim of this study was to develop an automatic target-based patient positioning framework for IGRT with CBCT images in prostate cancer treatment. Methods: Seventy-three CBCT images of 10 patients and 24 planning CT images with digital imaging and communications in medicine for radiotherapy (DICOM-RT) structures were used for this study. Our proposed framework started from themore » generation of probabilistic atlases of bone and prostate from 24 planning CT images and prostate contours, which were made in the treatment planning. Next, the gray-scale histograms of CBCT values within CTV regions in the planning CT images were obtained as the occurrence probability of the CBCT values. Then, CBCT images were registered to the atlases using a rigid registration with mutual information. Finally, prostate regions were estimated by applying the Bayesian inference to CBCT images with the probabilistic atlases and CBCT value occurrence probability. The proposed framework was evaluated by calculating the Euclidean distance of errors between two centroids of prostate regions determined by our method and ground truths of manual delineations by a radiation oncologist and a medical physicist on CBCT images for 10 patients. Results: The average Euclidean distance between the centroids of extracted prostate regions determined by our proposed method and ground truths was 4.4 mm. The average errors for each direction were 1.8 mm in anteroposterior direction, 0.6 mm in lateral direction and 2.1 mm in craniocaudal direction. Conclusion: Our proposed framework based on probabilistic atlases and Bayesian inference might be feasible to automatically determine prostate regions on CBCT images.« less

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

Relative Gains, Losses, and Reference Points in Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2015-01-01

Theoretical reference points have been proposed to differentiate probabilistic gains from probabilistic losses in humans, but such a phenomenon in non-human animals has yet to be thoroughly elucidated. Three experiments evaluated the effect of reward magnitude on probabilistic choice in rats, seeking to determine reference point use by examining the effect of previous outcome magnitude(s) on subsequent choice behavior. Rats were trained to choose between an outcome that always delivered reward (low-uncertainty choice) and one that probabilistically delivered reward (high-uncertainty). The probability of high-uncertainty outcome receipt and the magnitudes of low-uncertainty and high-uncertainty outcomes were manipulated within and between experiments. Both the low- and high-uncertainty outcomes involved variable reward magnitudes, so that either a smaller or larger magnitude was probabilistically delivered, as well as reward omission following high-uncertainty choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, the between groups factor was the magnitude of the high-uncertainty-smaller (H-S) and high-uncertainty-larger (H-L) outcome, respectively. The H-S magnitude manipulation differentiated the groups, while the H-L magnitude manipulation did not. Experiment 3 showed that manipulating the probability of differential losses as well as the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice produced systematic effects on choice behavior. The results suggest that the reference point for probabilistic gains and losses was the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice. Current theories of probabilistic choice behavior have difficulty accounting for the present results, so an integrated theoretical framework is proposed. Overall, the present results have implications for understanding individual differences and corresponding underlying mechanisms of probabilistic choice behavior. PMID:25658448

Information-theoretic model comparison unifies saliency metrics

PubMed Central

Kümmerer, Matthias; Wallis, Thomas S. A.; Bethge, Matthias

2015-01-01

Learning the properties of an image associated with human gaze placement is important both for understanding how biological systems explore the environment and for computer vision applications. There is a large literature on quantitative eye movement models that seeks to predict fixations from images (sometimes termed “saliency” prediction). A major problem known to the field is that existing model comparison metrics give inconsistent results, causing confusion. We argue that the primary reason for these inconsistencies is because different metrics and models use different definitions of what a “saliency map” entails. For example, some metrics expect a model to account for image-independent central fixation bias whereas others will penalize a model that does. Here we bring saliency evaluation into the domain of information by framing fixation prediction models probabilistically and calculating information gain. We jointly optimize the scale, the center bias, and spatial blurring of all models within this framework. Evaluating existing metrics on these rephrased models produces almost perfect agreement in model rankings across the metrics. Model performance is separated from center bias and spatial blurring, avoiding the confounding of these factors in model comparison. We additionally provide a method to show where and how models fail to capture information in the fixations on the pixel level. These methods are readily extended to spatiotemporal models of fixation scanpaths, and we provide a software package to facilitate their use. PMID:26655340

Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2008-12-01

New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single-species assessment that is well-integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.

A unified software framework for deriving, visualizing, and exploring abstraction networks for ontologies

PubMed Central

Ochs, Christopher; Geller, James; Perl, Yehoshua; Musen, Mark A.

2016-01-01

Software tools play a critical role in the development and maintenance of biomedical ontologies. One important task that is difficult without software tools is ontology quality assurance. In previous work, we have introduced different kinds of abstraction networks to provide a theoretical foundation for ontology quality assurance tools. Abstraction networks summarize the structure and content of ontologies. One kind of abstraction network that we have used repeatedly to support ontology quality assurance is the partial-area taxonomy. It summarizes structurally and semantically similar concepts within an ontology. However, the use of partial-area taxonomies was ad hoc and not generalizable. In this paper, we describe the Ontology Abstraction Framework (OAF), a unified framework and software system for deriving, visualizing, and exploring partial-area taxonomy abstraction networks. The OAF includes support for various ontology representations (e.g., OWL and SNOMED CT's relational format). A Protégé plugin for deriving “live partial-area taxonomies” is demonstrated. PMID:27345947

A unified software framework for deriving, visualizing, and exploring abstraction networks for ontologies.

PubMed

Ochs, Christopher; Geller, James; Perl, Yehoshua; Musen, Mark A

2016-08-01

Software tools play a critical role in the development and maintenance of biomedical ontologies. One important task that is difficult without software tools is ontology quality assurance. In previous work, we have introduced different kinds of abstraction networks to provide a theoretical foundation for ontology quality assurance tools. Abstraction networks summarize the structure and content of ontologies. One kind of abstraction network that we have used repeatedly to support ontology quality assurance is the partial-area taxonomy. It summarizes structurally and semantically similar concepts within an ontology. However, the use of partial-area taxonomies was ad hoc and not generalizable. In this paper, we describe the Ontology Abstraction Framework (OAF), a unified framework and software system for deriving, visualizing, and exploring partial-area taxonomy abstraction networks. The OAF includes support for various ontology representations (e.g., OWL and SNOMED CT's relational format). A Protégé plugin for deriving "live partial-area taxonomies" is demonstrated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E; Price, Martin J

2003-01-01

In structuring decision models of medical interventions, it is commonly recommended that only 2 branches be used for each chance node to avoid logical inconsistencies that can arise during sensitivity analyses if the branching probabilities do not sum to 1. However, information may be naturally available in an unconditional form, and structuring a tree in conditional form may complicate rather than simplify the sensitivity analysis of the unconditional probabilities. Current guidance emphasizes using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and a method is required to provide probabilistic probabilities over multiple branches that appropriately represents uncertainty while satisfying the requirement that mutually exclusive event probabilities should sum to 1. The authors argue that the Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate equivalent of the beta distribution, is appropriate for this purpose and illustrate its use for generating a fully probabilistic transition matrix for a Markov model. Furthermore, they demonstrate that by adopting a Bayesian approach, the problem of observing zero counts for transitions of interest can be overcome.

North American Science Symposium: Toward a unified framework for inventorying and monitoring forest ecosystem resources

Treesearch

Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo; Carlos Rodriguez Franco

1999-01-01

The general objective of this Symposium was to build on the best science and technology available to assure that the data and information produced in future inventory and monitoring programs are comparable, quality assured, available, and adequate for their intended purposes, thereby providing a reliable framework for characterization, assessment, and management of...

Students and Teacher Academic Evaluation Perceptions: Methodology to Construct a Representation Based on Actionable Knowledge Discovery Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molina, Otilia Alejandro; Ratté, Sylvie

2017-01-01

This research introduces a method to construct a unified representation of teachers and students perspectives based on the actionable knowledge discovery (AKD) and delivery framework. The representation is constructed using two models: one obtained from student evaluations and the other obtained from teachers' reflections about their teaching…

A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metzger, Marc J.; Bunce, Robert G.H.; Jongman, Rob H.G.; Sayre, Roger G.; Trabucco, Antonio; Zomer, Robert

2013-01-01

Main conclusions: The GEnS provides a robust spatial analytical framework for the aggregation of local observations, identification of gaps in current monitoring efforts and systematic design of complementary and new monitoring and research. The dataset is available for non-commercial use through the GEO portal (http://www.geoportal.org).

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. Fresno Unified School District. Grade 8, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

Teaching Introductory Business Statistics Using the DCOVA Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, David M.; Stephan, David F.

2011-01-01

Introductory business statistics students often receive little guidance on how to apply the methods they learn to further business objectives they may one day face. And those students may fail to see the continuity among the topics taught in an introductory course if they learn those methods outside a context that provides a unifying framework.…

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. Fresno Unified School District. Grade 4, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

Analysis of Streamline Separation at Infinity Using Time-Discrete Markov Chains.

PubMed

Reich, W; Scheuermann, G

2012-12-01

Existing methods for analyzing separation of streamlines are often restricted to a finite time or a local area. In our paper we introduce a new method that complements them by allowing an infinite-time-evaluation of steady planar vector fields. Our algorithm unifies combinatorial and probabilistic methods and introduces the concept of separation in time-discrete Markov-Chains. We compute particle distributions instead of the streamlines of single particles. We encode the flow into a map and then into a transition matrix for each time direction. Finally, we compare the results of our grid-independent algorithm to the popular Finite-Time-Lyapunov-Exponents and discuss the discrepancies.

Evaluating Health Information Systems Using Ontologies

PubMed Central

Anderberg, Peter; Larsson, Tobias C; Fricker, Samuel A; Berglund, Johan

2016-01-01

Background There are several frameworks that attempt to address the challenges of evaluation of health information systems by offering models, methods, and guidelines about what to evaluate, how to evaluate, and how to report the evaluation results. Model-based evaluation frameworks usually suggest universally applicable evaluation aspects but do not consider case-specific aspects. On the other hand, evaluation frameworks that are case specific, by eliciting user requirements, limit their output to the evaluation aspects suggested by the users in the early phases of system development. In addition, these case-specific approaches extract different sets of evaluation aspects from each case, making it challenging to collectively compare, unify, or aggregate the evaluation of a set of heterogeneous health information systems. Objectives The aim of this paper is to find a method capable of suggesting evaluation aspects for a set of one or more health information systems—whether similar or heterogeneous—by organizing, unifying, and aggregating the quality attributes extracted from those systems and from an external evaluation framework. Methods On the basis of the available literature in semantic networks and ontologies, a method (called Unified eValuation using Ontology; UVON) was developed that can organize, unify, and aggregate the quality attributes of several health information systems into a tree-style ontology structure. The method was extended to integrate its generated ontology with the evaluation aspects suggested by model-based evaluation frameworks. An approach was developed to extract evaluation aspects from the ontology that also considers evaluation case practicalities such as the maximum number of evaluation aspects to be measured or their required degree of specificity. The method was applied and tested in Future Internet Social and Technological Alignment Research (FI-STAR), a project of 7 cloud-based eHealth applications that were developed and deployed across European Union countries. Results The relevance of the evaluation aspects created by the UVON method for the FI-STAR project was validated by the corresponding stakeholders of each case. These evaluation aspects were extracted from a UVON-generated ontology structure that reflects both the internally declared required quality attributes in the 7 eHealth applications of the FI-STAR project and the evaluation aspects recommended by the Model for ASsessment of Telemedicine applications (MAST) evaluation framework. The extracted evaluation aspects were used to create questionnaires (for the corresponding patients and health professionals) to evaluate each individual case and the whole of the FI-STAR project. Conclusions The UVON method can provide a relevant set of evaluation aspects for a heterogeneous set of health information systems by organizing, unifying, and aggregating the quality attributes through ontological structures. Those quality attributes can be either suggested by evaluation models or elicited from the stakeholders of those systems in the form of system requirements. The method continues to be systematic, context sensitive, and relevant across a heterogeneous set of health information systems. PMID:27311735

Evaluating Health Information Systems Using Ontologies.

PubMed

Eivazzadeh, Shahryar; Anderberg, Peter; Larsson, Tobias C; Fricker, Samuel A; Berglund, Johan

2016-06-16

There are several frameworks that attempt to address the challenges of evaluation of health information systems by offering models, methods, and guidelines about what to evaluate, how to evaluate, and how to report the evaluation results. Model-based evaluation frameworks usually suggest universally applicable evaluation aspects but do not consider case-specific aspects. On the other hand, evaluation frameworks that are case specific, by eliciting user requirements, limit their output to the evaluation aspects suggested by the users in the early phases of system development. In addition, these case-specific approaches extract different sets of evaluation aspects from each case, making it challenging to collectively compare, unify, or aggregate the evaluation of a set of heterogeneous health information systems. The aim of this paper is to find a method capable of suggesting evaluation aspects for a set of one or more health information systems-whether similar or heterogeneous-by organizing, unifying, and aggregating the quality attributes extracted from those systems and from an external evaluation framework. On the basis of the available literature in semantic networks and ontologies, a method (called Unified eValuation using Ontology; UVON) was developed that can organize, unify, and aggregate the quality attributes of several health information systems into a tree-style ontology structure. The method was extended to integrate its generated ontology with the evaluation aspects suggested by model-based evaluation frameworks. An approach was developed to extract evaluation aspects from the ontology that also considers evaluation case practicalities such as the maximum number of evaluation aspects to be measured or their required degree of specificity. The method was applied and tested in Future Internet Social and Technological Alignment Research (FI-STAR), a project of 7 cloud-based eHealth applications that were developed and deployed across European Union countries. The relevance of the evaluation aspects created by the UVON method for the FI-STAR project was validated by the corresponding stakeholders of each case. These evaluation aspects were extracted from a UVON-generated ontology structure that reflects both the internally declared required quality attributes in the 7 eHealth applications of the FI-STAR project and the evaluation aspects recommended by the Model for ASsessment of Telemedicine applications (MAST) evaluation framework. The extracted evaluation aspects were used to create questionnaires (for the corresponding patients and health professionals) to evaluate each individual case and the whole of the FI-STAR project. The UVON method can provide a relevant set of evaluation aspects for a heterogeneous set of health information systems by organizing, unifying, and aggregating the quality attributes through ontological structures. Those quality attributes can be either suggested by evaluation models or elicited from the stakeholders of those systems in the form of system requirements. The method continues to be systematic, context sensitive, and relevant across a heterogeneous set of health information systems.

Probabilistic evaluation of on-line checks in fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, V. S. S.; Hoskote, Yatin V.; Abraham, Jacob A.

1992-01-01

The analysis of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems that use concurrent error detection (CED) schemes is much more difficult than the analysis of conventional fault-tolerant architectures. Various analytical techniques have been proposed to evaluate CED schemes deterministically. However, these approaches are based on worst-case assumptions related to the failure of system components. Often, the evaluation results do not reflect the actual fault tolerance capabilities of the system. A probabilistic approach to evaluate the fault detecting and locating capabilities of on-line checks in a system is developed. The various probabilities associated with the checking schemes are identified and used in the framework of the matrix-based model. Based on these probabilistic matrices, estimates for the fault tolerance capabilities of various systems are derived analytically.

Unifying error structures in commonly used biotracer mixing models.

PubMed

Stock, Brian C; Semmens, Brice X

2016-10-01

Mixing models are statistical tools that use biotracers to probabilistically estimate the contribution of multiple sources to a mixture. These biotracers may include contaminants, fatty acids, or stable isotopes, the latter of which are widely used in trophic ecology to estimate the mixed diet of consumers. Bayesian implementations of mixing models using stable isotopes (e.g., MixSIR, SIAR) are regularly used by ecologists for this purpose, but basic questions remain about when each is most appropriate. In this study, we describe the structural differences between common mixing model error formulations in terms of their assumptions about the predation process. We then introduce a new parameterization that unifies these mixing model error structures, as well as implicitly estimates the rate at which consumers sample from source populations (i.e., consumption rate). Using simulations and previously published mixing model datasets, we demonstrate that the new error parameterization outperforms existing models and provides an estimate of consumption. Our results suggest that the error structure introduced here will improve future mixing model estimates of animal diet. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Beyond Containment and Deterrence: A Security Framework for Europe in the 21st Century

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-04-02

decades of the 21st Century in Europe, and examines DDO FJoA 1473 E. T1O. Of INOV 65 IS OBSOLETE Uaf eSECRIT CUnclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION’ OF THIS... Poland , and parts of France and Russia, but it did not truely unify Germany. Bismarck unified only parts of Germany which he could constrain under...Europe, Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Soviet Union. Central Europe includes Vest Germany, East Germany, Austria, Czechoslavakia, Poland , and

Towards a Unified Description of the Electroweak Nuclear Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benhar, Omar; Lovato, Alessandro

2015-06-01

We briefly review the growing efforts to set up a unified framework for the description of neutrino interactions with atomic nuclei and nuclear matter, applicable in the broad kinematical region corresponding to neutrino energies ranging between few MeV and few GeV. The emerging picture suggests that the formalism of nuclear many-body theory (NMBT) can be exploited to obtain the neutrino-nucleus cross-sections needed for both the interpretation of oscillation signals and simulations of neutrino transport in compact stars

A theoretical formulation of wave-vortex interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, J. Z.; Wu, J. M.

1989-01-01

A unified theoretical formulation for wave-vortex interaction, designated the '(omega, Pi) framework,' is presented. Based on the orthogonal decomposition of fluid dynamic interactions, the formulation can be used to study a variety of problems, including the interaction of a longitudinal (acoustic) wave and/or transverse (vortical) wave with a main vortex flow. Moreover, the formulation permits a unified treatment of wave-vortex interaction at various approximate levels, where the normal 'piston' process and tangential 'rubbing' process can be approximated dfferently.

Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

PubMed

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

2012-11-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.

Unified Bayesian Estimator of EEG Reference at Infinity: rREST (Regularized Reference Electrode Standardization Technique)

PubMed Central

Hu, Shiang; Yao, Dezhong; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A.

2018-01-01

The choice of reference for the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a long-lasting unsolved issue resulting in inconsistent usages and endless debates. Currently, both the average reference (AR) and the reference electrode standardization technique (REST) are two primary, apparently irreconcilable contenders. We propose a theoretical framework to resolve this reference issue by formulating both (a) estimation of potentials at infinity, and (b) determination of the reference, as a unified Bayesian linear inverse problem, which can be solved by maximum a posterior estimation. We find that AR and REST are very particular cases of this unified framework: AR results from biophysically non-informative prior; while REST utilizes the prior based on the EEG generative model. To allow for simultaneous denoising and reference estimation, we develop the regularized versions of AR and REST, named rAR and rREST, respectively. Both depend on a regularization parameter that is the noise to signal variance ratio. Traditional and new estimators are evaluated with this framework, by both simulations and analysis of real resting EEGs. Toward this end, we leverage the MRI and EEG data from 89 subjects which participated in the Cuban Human Brain Mapping Project. Generated artificial EEGs—with a known ground truth, show that relative error in estimating the EEG potentials at infinity is lowest for rREST. It also reveals that realistic volume conductor models improve the performances of REST and rREST. Importantly, for practical applications, it is shown that an average lead field gives the results comparable to the individual lead field. Finally, it is shown that the selection of the regularization parameter with Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) is close to the “oracle” choice based on the ground truth. When evaluated with the real 89 resting state EEGs, rREST consistently yields the lowest GCV. This study provides a novel perspective to the EEG reference problem by means of a unified inverse solution framework. It may allow additional principled theoretical formulations and numerical evaluation of performance. PMID:29780302

In quest of a systematic framework for unifying and defining nanoscience

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

This article proposes a systematic framework for unifying and defining nanoscience based on historic first principles and step logic that led to a “central paradigm” (i.e., unifying framework) for traditional elemental/small-molecule chemistry. As such, a Nanomaterials classification roadmap is proposed, which divides all nanomatter into Category I: discrete, well-defined and Category II: statistical, undefined nanoparticles. We consider only Category I, well-defined nanoparticles which are >90% monodisperse as a function of Critical Nanoscale Design Parameters (CNDPs) defined according to: (a) size, (b) shape, (c) surface chemistry, (d) flexibility, and (e) elemental composition. Classified as either hard (H) (i.e., inorganic-based) or soft (S) (i.e., organic-based) categories, these nanoparticles were found to manifest pervasive atom mimicry features that included: (1) a dominance of zero-dimensional (0D) core–shell nanoarchitectures, (2) the ability to self-assemble or chemically bond as discrete, quantized nanounits, and (3) exhibited well-defined nanoscale valencies and stoichiometries reminiscent of atom-based elements. These discrete nanoparticle categories are referred to as hard or soft particle nanoelements. Many examples describing chemical bonding/assembly of these nanoelements have been reported in the literature. We refer to these hard:hard (H-n:H-n), soft:soft (S-n:S-n), or hard:soft (H-n:S-n) nanoelement combinations as nanocompounds. Due to their quantized features, many nanoelement and nanocompound categories are reported to exhibit well-defined nanoperiodic property patterns. These periodic property patterns are dependent on their quantized nanofeatures (CNDPs) and dramatically influence intrinsic physicochemical properties (i.e., melting points, reactivity/self-assembly, sterics, and nanoencapsulation), as well as important functional/performance properties (i.e., magnetic, photonic, electronic, and toxicologic properties). We propose this perspective as a modest first step toward more clearly defining synthetic nanochemistry as well as providing a systematic framework for unifying nanoscience. With further progress, one should anticipate the evolution of future nanoperiodic table(s) suitable for predicting important risk/benefit boundaries in the field of nanoscience. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11051-009-9632-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:21170133

Steepest entropy ascent model for far-nonequilibrium thermodynamics: Unified implementation of the maximum entropy production principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2014-10-01

By suitable reformulations, we cast the mathematical frameworks of several well-known different approaches to the description of nonequilibrium dynamics into a unified formulation valid in all these contexts, which extends to such frameworks the concept of steepest entropy ascent (SEA) dynamics introduced by the present author in previous works on quantum thermodynamics. Actually, the present formulation constitutes a generalization also for the quantum thermodynamics framework. The analysis emphasizes that in the SEA modeling principle a key role is played by the geometrical metric with respect to which to measure the length of a trajectory in state space. In the near-thermodynamic-equilibrium limit, the metric tensor is directly related to the Onsager's generalized resistivity tensor. Therefore, through the identification of a suitable metric field which generalizes the Onsager generalized resistance to the arbitrarily far-nonequilibrium domain, most of the existing theories of nonequilibrium thermodynamics can be cast in such a way that the state exhibits the spontaneous tendency to evolve in state space along the path of SEA compatible with the conservation constraints and the boundary conditions. The resulting unified family of SEA dynamical models is intrinsically and strongly consistent with the second law of thermodynamics. The non-negativity of the entropy production is a general and readily proved feature of SEA dynamics. In several of the different approaches to nonequilibrium description we consider here, the SEA concept has not been investigated before. We believe it defines the precise meaning and the domain of general validity of the so-called maximum entropy production principle. Therefore, it is hoped that the present unifying approach may prove useful in providing a fresh basis for effective, thermodynamically consistent, numerical models and theoretical treatments of irreversible conservative relaxation towards equilibrium from far nonequilibrium states. The mathematical frameworks we consider are the following: (A) statistical or information-theoretic models of relaxation; (B) small-scale and rarefied gas dynamics (i.e., kinetic models for the Boltzmann equation); (C) rational extended thermodynamics, macroscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and chemical kinetics; (D) mesoscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics, continuum mechanics with fluctuations; and (E) quantum statistical mechanics, quantum thermodynamics, mesoscopic nonequilibrium quantum thermodynamics, and intrinsic quantum thermodynamics.

Development and application of unified algorithms for problems in computational science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shankar, Vijaya; Chakravarthy, Sukumar

1987-01-01

A framework is presented for developing computationally unified numerical algorithms for solving nonlinear equations that arise in modeling various problems in mathematical physics. The concept of computational unification is an attempt to encompass efficient solution procedures for computing various nonlinear phenomena that may occur in a given problem. For example, in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), a unified algorithm will be one that allows for solutions to subsonic (elliptic), transonic (mixed elliptic-hyperbolic), and supersonic (hyperbolic) flows for both steady and unsteady problems. The objectives are: development of superior unified algorithms emphasizing accuracy and efficiency aspects; development of codes based on selected algorithms leading to validation; application of mature codes to realistic problems; and extension/application of CFD-based algorithms to problems in other areas of mathematical physics. The ultimate objective is to achieve integration of multidisciplinary technologies to enhance synergism in the design process through computational simulation. Specific unified algorithms for a hierarchy of gas dynamics equations and their applications to two other areas: electromagnetic scattering, and laser-materials interaction accounting for melting.

Ecohydrology of agroecosystems: probabilistic description of yield reduction risk under limited water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

2013-04-01

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability and stabilize yields. Irrigated agriculture currently provides 40% of food production and its relevance is expected to further increase in the near future, in face of the projected alterations of rainfall patterns and increase in food, fiber, and biofuel demand. Because of the significant investments and water requirements involved in irrigation, strategic choices are needed to preserve productivity and profitability, while maintaining a sustainable water management - a nontrivial task given the unpredictability of the rainfall forcing. To facilitate decision making under uncertainty, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season and yields at harvest. Based on these linkages, the probability density function of yields and corresponding probability density function of required irrigation volumes, as well as the probability density function of yields under the most common case of limited water availability are obtained analytically, as a function of irrigation strategy, climate, soil and crop parameters. The full probabilistic description of the frequency of occurrence of yields and water requirements is a crucial tool for decision making under uncertainty, e.g., via expected utility analysis. Furthermore, the knowledge of the probability density function of yield allows us to quantify the yield reduction hydrologic risk. Two risk indices are defined and quantified: the long-term risk index, suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, and the real-time risk index, providing a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season in an agricultural setting. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios. Hence, the proposed probabilistic framework provides a quantitative tool to assess the impact of irrigation strategy and water allocation on the risk of not meeting a certain target yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs.

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Groundwater-Related Risks at Excavation Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurado, A.; de Gaspari, F.; Vilarrasa, V.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Bolster, D.

2010-12-01

Excavation sites such as those associated with the construction of subway lines, railways and highway tunnels are hazardous places, posing risks to workers, machinery and surrounding buildings. Many of these risks can be groundwater related. In this work we develop a general framework based on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify such risks. This approach is compatible with standard PRA practices and it employs many well-developed risk analysis tools, such as fault trees. The novelty and computational challenges of the proposed approach stem from the reliance on stochastic differential equations, rather than reliability databases, to compute the probabilities of basic events. The general framework is applied to a specific case study in Spain. It is used to estimate and minimize risks for a potential construction site of an underground station for the new subway line in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-24

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

A Simple Demonstration of Concrete Structural Health Monitoring Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Agarwal, Vivek; Cai, Guowei

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Structural health monitoring of concrete structures aims to understand the current health condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements to produce high confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity that supports operational and maintenance decisions. This ongoing research project is seeking to develop a probabilistic framework for health diagnosis and prognosis of aging concrete structures in a nuclear power plant subjected to physical, chemical, environment, and mechanical degradation. The proposed framework consists of four elements—damagemore » modeling, monitoring, data analytics, and uncertainty quantification. This report describes a proof-of-concept example on a small concrete slab subjected to a freeze-thaw experiment that explores techniques in each of the four elements of the framework and their integration. An experimental set-up at Vanderbilt University’s Laboratory for Systems Integrity and Reliability is used to research effective combination of full-field techniques that include infrared thermography, digital image correlation, and ultrasonic measurement. The measured data are linked to the probabilistic framework: the thermography, digital image correlation data, and ultrasonic measurement data are used for Bayesian calibration of model parameters, for diagnosis of damage, and for prognosis of future damage. The proof-of-concept demonstration presented in this report highlights the significance of each element of the framework and their integration.« less

Re-engineering the Federal planning process: A total Federal planning strategy, integrating NEPA with modern management tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eccleston, C.H.

1997-09-05

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 was established by Congress more than a quarter of a century ago, yet there is a surprising lack of specific tools, techniques, and methodologies for effectively implementing these regulatory requirements. Lack of professionally accepted techniques is a principal factor responsible for many inefficiencies. Often, decision makers do not fully appreciate or capitalize on the true potential which NEPA provides as a platform for planning future actions. New approaches and modem management tools must be adopted to fully achieve NEPA`s mandate. A new strategy, referred to as Total Federal Planning, is proposed formore » unifying large-scale federal planning efforts under a single, systematic, structured, and holistic process. Under this approach, the NEPA planning process provides a unifying framework for integrating all early environmental and nonenvironmental decision-making factors into a single comprehensive planning process. To promote effectiveness and efficiency, modem tools and principles from the disciplines of Value Engineering, Systems Engineering, and Total Quality Management are incorporated. Properly integrated and implemented, these planning tools provide the rigorous, structured, and disciplined framework essential in achieving effective planning. Ultimately, the goal of a Total Federal Planning strategy is to construct a unified and interdisciplinary framework that substantially improves decision-making, while reducing the time, cost, redundancy, and effort necessary to comply with environmental and other planning requirements. At a time when Congress is striving to re-engineer the governmental framework, apparatus, and process, a Total Federal Planning philosophy offers a systematic approach for uniting the disjointed and often convoluted planning process currently used by most federal agencies. Potentially this approach has widespread implications in the way federal planning is approached.« less

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. San Diego Unified School District. Grade 4, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. San Diego Unified School District. Grade 8, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. Los Angeles Unified School District. Grade 4, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

The Nation's Report Card Science 2009 Trial Urban District Snapshot Report. Los Angeles Unified School District. Grade 8, Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Education Statistics, 2011

2011-01-01

Guided by a new framework, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) science assessment was updated in 2009 to keep the content current with key developments in science, curriculum standards, assessments, and research. The 2009 framework organizes science content into three broad content areas. Physical science includes concepts…

A unifying framework for quantifying the nature of animal interactions.

PubMed

Potts, Jonathan R; Mokross, Karl; Lewis, Mark A

2014-07-06

Collective phenomena, whereby agent-agent interactions determine spatial patterns, are ubiquitous in the animal kingdom. On the other hand, movement and space use are also greatly influenced by the interactions between animals and their environment. Despite both types of interaction fundamentally influencing animal behaviour, there has hitherto been no unifying framework for the models proposed in both areas. Here, we construct a general method for inferring population-level spatial patterns from underlying individual movement and interaction processes, a key ingredient in building a statistical mechanics for ecological systems. We show that resource selection functions, as well as several examples of collective motion models, arise as special cases of our framework, thus bringing together resource selection analysis and collective animal behaviour into a single theory. In particular, we focus on combining the various mechanistic models of territorial interactions in the literature with step selection functions, by incorporating interactions into the step selection framework and demonstrating how to derive territorial patterns from the resulting models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by application to a population of insectivore birds in the Amazon rainforest. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A unified framework for image retrieval using keyword and visual features.

PubMed

Jing, Feng; Li, Mingling; Zhang, Hong-Jiang; Zhang, Bo

2005-07-01

In this paper, a unified image retrieval framework based on both keyword annotations and visual features is proposed. In this framework, a set of statistical models are built based on visual features of a small set of manually labeled images to represent semantic concepts and used to propagate keywords to other unlabeled images. These models are updated periodically when more images implicitly labeled by users become available through relevance feedback. In this sense, the keyword models serve the function of accumulation and memorization of knowledge learned from user-provided relevance feedback. Furthermore, two sets of effective and efficient similarity measures and relevance feedback schemes are proposed for query by keyword scenario and query by image example scenario, respectively. Keyword models are combined with visual features in these schemes. In particular, a new, entropy-based active learning strategy is introduced to improve the efficiency of relevance feedback for query by keyword. Furthermore, a new algorithm is proposed to estimate the keyword features of the search concept for query by image example. It is shown to be more appropriate than two existing relevance feedback algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

A computational framework to empower probabilistic protein design

PubMed Central

Fromer, Menachem; Yanover, Chen

2008-01-01

Motivation: The task of engineering a protein to perform a target biological function is known as protein design. A commonly used paradigm casts this functional design problem as a structural one, assuming a fixed backbone. In probabilistic protein design, positional amino acid probabilities are used to create a random library of sequences to be simultaneously screened for biological activity. Clearly, certain choices of probability distributions will be more successful in yielding functional sequences. However, since the number of sequences is exponential in protein length, computational optimization of the distribution is difficult. Results: In this paper, we develop a computational framework for probabilistic protein design following the structural paradigm. We formulate the distribution of sequences for a structure using the Boltzmann distribution over their free energies. The corresponding probabilistic graphical model is constructed, and we apply belief propagation (BP) to calculate marginal amino acid probabilities. We test this method on a large structural dataset and demonstrate the superiority of BP over previous methods. Nevertheless, since the results obtained by BP are far from optimal, we thoroughly assess the paradigm using high-quality experimental data. We demonstrate that, for small scale sub-problems, BP attains identical results to those produced by exact inference on the paradigmatic model. However, quantitative analysis shows that the distributions predicted significantly differ from the experimental data. These findings, along with the excellent performance we observed using BP on the smaller problems, suggest potential shortcomings of the paradigm. We conclude with a discussion of how it may be improved in the future. Contact: fromer@cs.huji.ac.il PMID:18586717

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

PubMed

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

PubMed Central

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models. PMID:29062288

40 CFR 300.105 - General organization concepts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... capabilities. (b) Three fundamental kinds of activities are performed pursuant to the NCP: (1) Preparedness....205(c). (d) The basic framework for the response management structure is a system (e.g., a unified...

A Mathematical Framework for Image Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

The results reported here were derived from the research project ’A Mathematical Framework for Image Analysis ’ supported by the Office of Naval...Research, contract N00014-88-K-0289 to Brown University. A common theme for the work reported is the use of probabilistic methods for problems in image ... analysis and image reconstruction. Five areas of research are described: rigid body recognition using a decision tree/combinatorial approach; nonrigid

An online tool for Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS): a Statistical-Dynamical Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.

2017-12-01

The Operational Probabilistic Drought Forecasting System (OPDFS) is an online tool recently developed at Portland State University for operational agricultural drought forecasting. This is an integrated statistical-dynamical framework issuing probabilistic drought forecasts monthly for the lead times of 1, 2, and 3 months. The statistical drought forecasting method utilizes copula functions in order to condition the future soil moisture values on the antecedent states. Due to stochastic nature of land surface properties, the antecedent soil moisture states are uncertain; therefore, data assimilation system based on Particle Filtering (PF) is employed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the initial condition of the land state, i.e. soil moisture. PF assimilates the satellite soil moisture data to Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model and ultimately updates the simulated soil moisture. The OPDFS builds on the NOAA's seasonal drought outlook by offering drought probabilities instead of qualitative ordinal categories and provides the user with the probability maps associated with a particular drought category. A retrospective assessment of the OPDFS showed that the forecasting of the 2012 Great Plains and 2014 California droughts were possible at least one month in advance. The OPDFS offers a timely assistance to water managers, stakeholders and decision-makers to develop resilience against uncertain upcoming droughts.

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

A unified and efficient framework for court-net sports video analysis using 3D camera modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jungong; de With, Peter H. N.

2007-01-01

The extensive amount of video data stored on available media (hard and optical disks) necessitates video content analysis, which is a cornerstone for different user-friendly applications, such as, smart video retrieval and intelligent video summarization. This paper aims at finding a unified and efficient framework for court-net sports video analysis. We concentrate on techniques that are generally applicable for more than one sports type to come to a unified approach. To this end, our framework employs the concept of multi-level analysis, where a novel 3-D camera modeling is utilized to bridge the gap between the object-level and the scene-level analysis. The new 3-D camera modeling is based on collecting features points from two planes, which are perpendicular to each other, so that a true 3-D reference is obtained. Another important contribution is a new tracking algorithm for the objects (i.e. players). The algorithm can track up to four players simultaneously. The complete system contributes to summarization by various forms of information, of which the most important are the moving trajectory and real-speed of each player, as well as 3-D height information of objects and the semantic event segments in a game. We illustrate the performance of the proposed system by evaluating it for a variety of court-net sports videos containing badminton, tennis and volleyball, and we show that the feature detection performance is above 92% and events detection about 90%.

Generic-distributed framework for cloud services marketplace based on unified ontology.

PubMed

Hasan, Samer; Valli Kumari, V

2017-11-01

Cloud computing is a pattern for delivering ubiquitous and on demand computing resources based on pay-as-you-use financial model. Typically, cloud providers advertise cloud service descriptions in various formats on the Internet. On the other hand, cloud consumers use available search engines (Google and Yahoo) to explore cloud service descriptions and find the adequate service. Unfortunately, general purpose search engines are not designed to provide a small and complete set of results, which makes the process a big challenge. This paper presents a generic-distrusted framework for cloud services marketplace to automate cloud services discovery and selection process, and remove the barriers between service providers and consumers. Additionally, this work implements two instances of generic framework by adopting two different matching algorithms; namely dominant and recessive attributes algorithm borrowed from gene science and semantic similarity algorithm based on unified cloud service ontology. Finally, this paper presents unified cloud services ontology and models the real-life cloud services according to the proposed ontology. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first attempt to build a cloud services marketplace where cloud providers and cloud consumers can trend cloud services as utilities. In comparison with existing work, semantic approach reduced the execution time by 20% and maintained the same values for all other parameters. On the other hand, dominant and recessive attributes approach reduced the execution time by 57% but showed lower value for recall.

Quantifying uncertainty in health impact assessment: a case-study example on indoor housing ventilation.

PubMed

Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Foss, Anna M

2014-01-01

Quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) is increasingly being used to assess the health impacts attributable to an environmental policy or intervention. As a consequence, there is a need to assess uncertainties in the assessments because of the uncertainty in the HIA models. In this paper, a framework is developed to quantify the uncertainty in the health impacts of environmental interventions and is applied to evaluate the impacts of poor housing ventilation. The paper describes the development of the framework through three steps: (i) selecting the relevant exposure metric and quantifying the evidence of potential health effects of the exposure; (ii) estimating the size of the population affected by the exposure and selecting the associated outcome measure; (iii) quantifying the health impact and its uncertainty. The framework introduces a novel application for the propagation of uncertainty in HIA, based on fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy sets are used to propagate parametric uncertainty in a non-probabilistic space and are applied to calculate the uncertainty in the morbidity burdens associated with three indoor ventilation exposure scenarios: poor, fair and adequate. The case-study example demonstrates how the framework can be used in practice, to quantify the uncertainty in health impact assessment where there is insufficient information to carry out a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. © 2013.

A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

2017-09-01

In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

DOE PAGES

Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; ...

2015-02-27

A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

LIFE CYCLE ENGINEERING GUIDELINES

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides guidelines for the implementation of LCE concepts, information, and techniques in engineering products, systems, processes, and facilities. To make this document as practical and useable as possible, a unifying LCE framework is presented. Subsequent topics ...

Value of Flexibility - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-25

weaknesses of each approach. During this period, we also explored the development of an analytical framework based on sound mathematical constructs... mathematical constructs. A review of the current state-of-the-art showed that there is little unifying theory or guidance on best approaches to...research activities is in developing a coherent value based definition of flexibility that is based on an analytical framework that is mathematically

Reasoning about Probabilistic Security Using Task-PIOAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaggard, Aaron D.; Meadows, Catherine; Mislove, Michael; Segala, Roberto

Task-structured probabilistic input/output automata (Task-PIOAs) are concurrent probabilistic automata that, among other things, have been used to provide a formal framework for the universal composability paradigms of protocol security. One of their advantages is that that they allow one to distinguish high-level nondeterminism that can affect the outcome of the protocol, from low-level choices, which can't. We present an alternative approach to analyzing the structure of Task-PIOAs that relies on ordered sets. We focus on two of the components that are required to define and apply Task-PIOAs: discrete probability theory and automata theory. We believe our development gives insight into the structure of Task-PIOAs and how they can be utilized to model crypto-protocols. We illustrate our approach with an example from anonymity, an area that has not previously been addressed using Task-PIOAs. We model Chaum's Dining Cryptographers Protocol at a level that does not require cryptographic primitives in the analysis. We show via this example how our approach can leverage a proof of security in the case a principal behaves deterministically to prove security when that principal behaves probabilistically.

Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

PubMed

Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

Conceptual Tools for Understanding Nature - Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, G.; Calucci, M.

1997-04-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Foreword * Some Limits of Science and Scientists * Three Limits of Scientific Knowledge * On Features and Meaning of Scientific Knowledge * How Science Approaches the World: Risky Truths versus Misleading Certitudes * On Discovery and Justification * Thought Experiments: A Philosophical Analysis * Causality: Epistemological Questions and Cognitive Answers * Scientific Inquiry via Rational Hypothesis Revision * Probabilistic Epistemology * The Transferable Belief Model for Uncertainty Representation * Chemistry and Complexity * The Difficult Epistemology of Medicine * Epidemiology, Causality and Medical Anthropology * Conceptual Tools for Transdisciplinary Unified Theory * Evolution and Learning in Economic Organizations * The Possible Role of Symmetry in Physics and Cosmology * Observational Cosmology and/or other Imaginable Models of the Universe

Food-web based unified model of macro- and microevolution.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Debashish; Stauffer, Dietrich

2003-10-01

We incorporate the generic hierarchical architecture of foodwebs into a "unified" model that describes both micro- and macroevolutions within a single theoretical framework. This model describes the microevolution in detail by accounting for the birth, ageing, and natural death of individual organisms as well as prey-predator interactions on a hierarchical dynamic food web. It also provides a natural description of random mutations and speciation (origination) of species as well as their extinctions. The distribution of lifetimes of species follows an approximate power law only over a limited regime.

Unified approach to redshift in cosmological/black hole spacetimes and synchronous frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toporensky, A. V.; Zaslavskii, O. B.; Popov, S. B.

2018-01-01

Usually, interpretation of redshift in static spacetimes (for example, near black holes) is opposed to that in cosmology. In this methodological note, we show that both explanations are unified in a natural picture. This is achieved if, considering the static spacetime, one (i) makes a transition to a synchronous frame, and (ii) returns to the original frame by means of local Lorentz boost. To reach our goal, we consider a rather general class of spherically symmetric spacetimes. In doing so, we construct frames that generalize the well-known Lemaitre and Painlevé-Gullstand ones and elucidate the relation between them. This helps us to understand, in a unifying approach, how gravitation reveals itself in different branches of general relativity. This framework can be useful for general relativity university courses.

Impact of Beads and Drops on a Repellent Solid Surface: A Unified Description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, S.; Fromental, J.-M.; Mora, S.; Phou, Ty; Ramos, L.; Ligoure, C.

2018-04-01

We investigate freely expanding sheets formed by ultrasoft gel beads, and liquid and viscoelastic drops, produced by the impact of the bead or drop on a silicon wafer covered with a thin layer of liquid nitrogen that suppresses viscous dissipation thanks to an inverse Leidenfrost effect. Our experiments show a unified behavior for the impact dynamics that holds for solids, liquids, and viscoelastic fluids and that we rationalize by properly taking into account elastocapillary effects. In this framework, the classical impact dynamics of solids and liquids, as far as viscous dissipation is negligible, appears as the asymptotic limits of a universal theoretical description. A novel material-dependent characteristic velocity that includes both capillary and bulk elasticity emerges from this unified description of the physics of impact.

SCIFIO: an extensible framework to support scientific image formats.

PubMed

Hiner, Mark C; Rueden, Curtis T; Eliceiri, Kevin W

2016-12-07

No gold standard exists in the world of scientific image acquisition; a proliferation of instruments each with its own proprietary data format has made out-of-the-box sharing of that data nearly impossible. In the field of light microscopy, the Bio-Formats library was designed to translate such proprietary data formats to a common, open-source schema, enabling sharing and reproduction of scientific results. While Bio-Formats has proved successful for microscopy images, the greater scientific community was lacking a domain-independent framework for format translation. SCIFIO (SCientific Image Format Input and Output) is presented as a freely available, open-source library unifying the mechanisms of reading and writing image data. The core of SCIFIO is its modular definition of formats, the design of which clearly outlines the components of image I/O to encourage extensibility, facilitated by the dynamic discovery of the SciJava plugin framework. SCIFIO is structured to support coexistence of multiple domain-specific open exchange formats, such as Bio-Formats' OME-TIFF, within a unified environment. SCIFIO is a freely available software library developed to standardize the process of reading and writing scientific image formats.

Evolutionary dynamics of tree invasions: complementing the unified framework for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zenni, Rafael Dudeque; Dickie, Ian A; Wingfield, Michael J; Hirsch, Heidi; Crous, Casparus J; Meyerson, Laura A; Burgess, Treena I; Zimmermann, Thalita G; Klock, Metha M; Siemann, Evan; Erfmeier, Alexandra; Aragon, Roxana; Montti, Lia; Le Roux, Johannes J

2016-12-30

Evolutionary processes greatly impact the outcomes of biological invasions. An extensive body of research suggests that invasive populations often undergo phenotypic and ecological divergence from their native sources. Evolution also operates at different and distinct stages during the invasion process. Thus, it is important to incorporate evolutionary change into frameworks of biological invasions because it allows us to conceptualize how these processes may facilitate or hinder invasion success. Here, we review such processes, with an emphasis on tree invasions, and place them in the context of the unified framework for biological invasions. The processes and mechanisms described are pre-introduction evolutionary history, sampling effect, founder effect, genotype-by-environment interactions, admixture, hybridization, polyploidization, rapid evolution, epigenetics, and second-genomes. For the last, we propose that co-evolved symbionts, both beneficial and harmful, which are closely physiologically associated with invasive species, contain critical genetic traits that affect the evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions. By understanding the mechanisms underlying invasion success, researchers will be better equipped to predict, understand, and manage biological invasions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Evolutionary dynamics of tree invasions: complementing the unified framework for biological invasions

PubMed Central

Dickie, Ian A.; Wingfield, Michael J.; Hirsch, Heidi; Crous, Casparus J.; Meyerson, Laura A.; Burgess, Treena I.; Zimmermann, Thalita G.; Klock, Metha M.; Siemann, Evan; Erfmeier, Alexandra; Aragon, Roxana; Montti, Lia; Le Roux, Johannes J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Evolutionary processes greatly impact the outcomes of biological invasions. An extensive body of research suggests that invasive populations often undergo phenotypic and ecological divergence from their native sources. Evolution also operates at different and distinct stages during the invasion process. Thus, it is important to incorporate evolutionary change into frameworks of biological invasions because it allows us to conceptualize how these processes may facilitate or hinder invasion success. Here, we review such processes, with an emphasis on tree invasions, and place them in the context of the unified framework for biological invasions. The processes and mechanisms described are pre-introduction evolutionary history, sampling effect, founder effect, genotype-by-environment interactions, admixture, hybridization, polyploidization, rapid evolution, epigenetics and second-genomes. For the last, we propose that co-evolved symbionts, both beneficial and harmful, which are closely physiologically associated with invasive species, contain critical genetic traits that affect the evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions. By understanding the mechanisms underlying invasion success, researchers will be better equipped to predict, understand and manage biological invasions. PMID:28039118

Managing urban water systems with significant adaptation deficits - a unified framework for secondary cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathirana, A.; Radhakrishnan, M.; Zevenbergen, C.; Quan, N. H.

2016-12-01

The need to address the shortcomings of urban systems - adaptation deficit - and shortcomings in response to climate change - `adaptation gap' - are both major challenges in maintaining the livability and sustainability of cities. However, the adaptation actions defined in terms of type I (addressing adaptation deficits) and type II (addressing adaptation gaps), often compete and conflict each other in the secondary cities of the global south. Extending the concept of the environmental Kuznets curve, this paper argues that a unified framework that calls for synergistic action on type I and type II adaptation is essential in order for these cities to maintain their livability, sustainability and resilience facing extreme rates of urbanization and rapid onset of climate change. The proposed framework has been demonstrated in Can Tho, Vietnam, where there are significant adaptation deficits due to rapid urbanisation and adaptation gaps due to climate change and socio-economic changes. The analysis in Can Tho reveals the lack of integration between type I and type II measures that could be overcome by closer integration between various stakeholders in terms of planning, prioritising and implementing the adaptation measures.

Unified framework for automated iris segmentation using distantly acquired face images.

PubMed

Tan, Chun-Wei; Kumar, Ajay

2012-09-01

Remote human identification using iris biometrics has high civilian and surveillance applications and its success requires the development of robust segmentation algorithm to automatically extract the iris region. This paper presents a new iris segmentation framework which can robustly segment the iris images acquired using near infrared or visible illumination. The proposed approach exploits multiple higher order local pixel dependencies to robustly classify the eye region pixels into iris or noniris regions. Face and eye detection modules have been incorporated in the unified framework to automatically provide the localized eye region from facial image for iris segmentation. We develop robust postprocessing operations algorithm to effectively mitigate the noisy pixels caused by the misclassification. Experimental results presented in this paper suggest significant improvement in the average segmentation errors over the previously proposed approaches, i.e., 47.5%, 34.1%, and 32.6% on UBIRIS.v2, FRGC, and CASIA.v4 at-a-distance databases, respectively. The usefulness of the proposed approach is also ascertained from recognition experiments on three different publicly available databases.

Trajectory optimization for lunar soft landing with complex constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Huiping; Ma, Lin; Wang, Kexin; Shao, Zhijiang; Song, Zhengyu

2017-11-01

A unified trajectory optimization framework with initialization strategies is proposed in this paper for lunar soft landing for various missions with specific requirements. Two main missions of interest are Apollo-like Landing from low lunar orbit and Vertical Takeoff Vertical Landing (a promising mobility method) on the lunar surface. The trajectory optimization is characterized by difficulties arising from discontinuous thrust, multi-phase connections, jump of attitude angle, and obstacles avoidance. Here R-function is applied to deal with the discontinuities of thrust, checkpoint constraints are introduced to connect multiple landing phases, attitude angular rate is designed to get rid of radical changes, and safeguards are imposed to avoid collision with obstacles. The resulting dynamic problems are generally with complex constraints. The unified framework based on Gauss Pseudospectral Method (GPM) and Nonlinear Programming (NLP) solver are designed to solve the problems efficiently. Advanced initialization strategies are developed to enhance both the convergence and computation efficiency. Numerical results demonstrate the adaptability of the framework for various landing missions, and the performance of successful solution of difficult dynamic problems.

Reply to Comments.

PubMed

Sripada, Chandra; Railton, Peter; Baumeister, Roy F; Seligman, Martin E P

2013-03-01

Evidence of prospective processes is increasingly common in psychological research, which suggests the fruitfulness of a theoretical framework for mind and brain built around future orientation. No metaphysics of determinism or indeterminism is presupposed by this framework, nor do considerations of scientific method require determinism-successful scientific theories in the natural sciences all involve probabilistic elements. We speculate that expressive behavior and moral decision making use prospective processes parallel to those used in nonmoral decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

Development of a coupled hydrological - hydrodynamic model for probabilistic catchment flood inundation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Dunne, Toby; Neal, Jeff; Bates, Paul; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy; Parkin, Geoff

2017-04-01

Computationally efficient flood inundation modelling systems capable of representing important hydrological and hydrodynamic flood generating processes over relatively large regions are vital for those interested in flood preparation, response, and real time forecasting. However, such systems are currently not readily available. This can be particularly important where flood predictions from intense rainfall are considered as the processes leading to flooding often involve localised, non-linear spatially connected hillslope-catchment responses. Therefore, this research introduces a novel hydrological-hydraulic modelling framework for the provision of probabilistic flood inundation predictions across catchment to regional scales that explicitly account for spatial variability in rainfall-runoff and routing processes. Approaches have been developed to automate the provision of required input datasets and estimate essential catchment characteristics from freely available, national datasets. This is an essential component of the framework as when making predictions over multiple catchments or at relatively large scales, and where data is often scarce, obtaining local information and manually incorporating it into the model quickly becomes infeasible. An extreme flooding event in the town of Morpeth, NE England, in 2008 was used as a first case study evaluation of the modelling framework introduced. The results demonstrated a high degree of prediction accuracy when comparing modelled and reconstructed event characteristics for the event, while the efficiency of the modelling approach used enabled the generation of relatively large ensembles of realisations from which uncertainty within the prediction may be represented. This research supports previous literature highlighting the importance of probabilistic forecasting, particularly during extreme events, which can be often be poorly characterised or even missed by deterministic predictions due to the inherent uncertainty in any model application. Future research will aim to further evaluate the robustness of the approaches introduced by applying the modelling framework to a variety of historical flood events across UK catchments. Furthermore, the flexibility and efficiency of the framework is ideally suited to the examination of the propagation of errors through the model which will help gain a better understanding of the dominant sources of uncertainty currently impacting flood inundation predictions.

A Unified Framework for Periodic, On-Demand, and User-Specified Software Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolano, Paul Z.

2004-01-01

Although grid computing can increase the number of resources available to a user; not all resources on the grid may have a software environment suitable for running a given application. To provide users with the necessary assistance for selecting resources with compatible software environments and/or for automatically establishing such environments, it is necessary to have an accurate source of information about the software installed across the grid. This paper presents a new OGSI-compliant software information service that has been implemented as part of NASA's Information Power Grid project. This service is built on top of a general framework for reconciling information from periodic, on-demand, and user-specified sources. Information is retrieved using standard XPath queries over a single unified namespace independent of the information's source. Two consumers of the provided software information, the IPG Resource Broker and the IPG Neutralization Service, are briefly described.

Semantically enabled image similarity search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casterline, May V.; Emerick, Timothy; Sadeghi, Kolia; Gosse, C. A.; Bartlett, Brent; Casey, Jason

2015-05-01

Georeferenced data of various modalities are increasingly available for intelligence and commercial use, however effectively exploiting these sources demands a unified data space capable of capturing the unique contribution of each input. This work presents a suite of software tools for representing geospatial vector data and overhead imagery in a shared high-dimension vector or embedding" space that supports fused learning and similarity search across dissimilar modalities. While the approach is suitable for fusing arbitrary input types, including free text, the present work exploits the obvious but computationally difficult relationship between GIS and overhead imagery. GIS is comprised of temporally-smoothed but information-limited content of a GIS, while overhead imagery provides an information-rich but temporally-limited perspective. This processing framework includes some important extensions of concepts in literature but, more critically, presents a means to accomplish them as a unified framework at scale on commodity cloud architectures.

Motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease: A unified framework.

PubMed

Moustafa, Ahmed A; Chakravarthy, Srinivasa; Phillips, Joseph R; Gupta, Ankur; Keri, Szabolcs; Polner, Bertalan; Frank, Michael J; Jahanshahi, Marjan

2016-09-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by a range of motor symptoms. Besides the cardinal symptoms (akinesia and bradykinesia, tremor and rigidity), PD patients show additional motor deficits, including: gait disturbance, impaired handwriting, grip force and speech deficits, among others. Some of these motor symptoms (e.g., deficits of gait, speech, and handwriting) have similar clinical profiles, neural substrates, and respond similarly to dopaminergic medication and deep brain stimulation (DBS). Here, we provide an extensive review of the clinical characteristics and neural substrates of each of these motor symptoms, to highlight precisely how PD and its medical and surgical treatments impact motor symptoms. In conclusion, we offer a unified framework for understanding the range of motor symptoms in PD. We argue that various motor symptoms in PD reflect dysfunction of neural structures responsible for action selection, motor sequencing, and coordination and execution of movement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of a Unified LaSRS++ Simulation for NAS-Wide and High-Fidelity Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaab, Patricia; Madden, Michael

2014-01-01

The LaSRS++ high-fidelity vehicle simulation was extended in 2012 to support a NAS-wide simulation mode. Since the initial proof-of-concept, the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulation is maturing into a research-ready tool. A primary benefit of this new capability is the consolidation of the two modeling paradigms under a single framework to save cost, facilitate iterative concept testing between the two tools, and to promote communication and model sharing between user communities at Langley. Specific benefits of each type of modeling are discussed along with the expected benefits of the unified framework. Current capability details of the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulations are provided, including the visualization tool, live data interface, trajectory generators, terminal routing for arrivals and departures, maneuvering, re-routing, navigation, winds, and turbulence. The plan for future development is also described.

Depth Reconstruction from Single Images Using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Condition Random Field Model.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Liu, Xuejun; Wu, Yiguang

2018-04-24

This paper presents an effective approach for depth reconstruction from a single image through the incorporation of semantic information and local details from the image. A unified framework for depth acquisition is constructed by joining a deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and a continuous pairwise Conditional Random Field (CRF) model. Semantic information and relative depth trends of local regions inside the image are integrated into the framework. A deep CNN network is firstly used to automatically learn a hierarchical feature representation of the image. To get more local details in the image, the relative depth trends of local regions are incorporated into the network. Combined with semantic information of the image, a continuous pairwise CRF is then established and is used as the loss function of the unified model. Experiments on real scenes demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective and that the approach obtains satisfactory results.

Robust nonlinear control of vectored thrust aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, John C.; Murray, Richard; Morris, John

1993-01-01

An interdisciplinary program in robust control for nonlinear systems with applications to a variety of engineering problems is outlined. Major emphasis will be placed on flight control, with both experimental and analytical studies. This program builds on recent new results in control theory for stability, stabilization, robust stability, robust performance, synthesis, and model reduction in a unified framework using Linear Fractional Transformations (LFT's), Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI's), and the structured singular value micron. Most of these new advances have been accomplished by the Caltech controls group independently or in collaboration with researchers in other institutions. These recent results offer a new and remarkably unified framework for all aspects of robust control, but what is particularly important for this program is that they also have important implications for system identification and control of nonlinear systems. This combines well with Caltech's expertise in nonlinear control theory, both in geometric methods and methods for systems with constraints and saturations.

Discrete shearlet transform: faithful digitization concept and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Wang-Q.

2011-09-01

Over the past years, various representation systems which sparsely approximate functions governed by anisotropic features such as edges in images have been proposed. Alongside the theoretical development of these systems, algorithmic realizations of the associated transforms were provided. However, one of the most common short-comings of these frameworks is the lack of providing a unified treatment of the continuum and digital world, i.e., allowing a digital theory to be a natural digitization of the continuum theory. Shearlets were introduced as means to sparsely encode anisotropic singularities of multivariate data while providing a unified treatment of the continuous and digital realm. In this paper, we introduce a discrete framework which allows a faithful digitization of the continuum domain shearlet transform based on compactly supported shearlets. Finally, we show numerical experiments demonstrating the potential of the discrete shearlet transform in several image processing applications.

Some characteristics of supernetworks based on unified hybrid network theory framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Fang, Jin-Qing; Li, Yong

Comparing with single complex networks, supernetworks are more close to the real world in some ways, and have become the newest research hot spot in the network science recently. Some progresses have been made in the research of supernetworks, but the theoretical research method and complex network characteristics of supernetwork models are still needed to further explore. In this paper, we propose three kinds of supernetwork models with three layers based on the unified hybrid network theory framework (UHNTF), and introduce preferential and random linking, respectively, between the upper and lower layers. Then we compared the topological characteristics of the single networks with the supernetwork models. In order to analyze the influence of the interlayer edges on network characteristics, the cross-degree is defined as a new important parameter. Then some interesting new phenomena are found, the results imply this supernetwork model has reference value and application potential.

Snoopy--a unifying Petri net framework to investigate biomolecular networks.

PubMed

Rohr, Christian; Marwan, Wolfgang; Heiner, Monika

2010-04-01

To investigate biomolecular networks, Snoopy provides a unifying Petri net framework comprising a family of related Petri net classes. Models can be hierarchically structured, allowing for the mastering of larger networks. To move easily between the qualitative, stochastic and continuous modelling paradigms, models can be converted into each other. We get models sharing structure, but specialized by their kinetic information. The analysis and iterative reverse engineering of biomolecular networks is supported by the simultaneous use of several Petri net classes, while the graphical user interface adapts dynamically to the active one. Built-in animation and simulation are complemented by exports to various analysis tools. Snoopy facilitates the addition of new Petri net classes thanks to its generic design. Our tool with Petri net samples is available free of charge for non-commercial use at http://www-dssz.informatik.tu-cottbus.de/snoopy.html; supported operating systems: Mac OS X, Windows and Linux (selected distributions).

Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

PubMed Central

Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

2015-01-01

Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework. PMID:26543899

Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

PubMed

Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

2015-01-01

Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

Generalized multiple kernel learning with data-dependent priors.

PubMed

Mao, Qi; Tsang, Ivor W; Gao, Shenghua; Wang, Li

2015-06-01

Multiple kernel learning (MKL) and classifier ensemble are two mainstream methods for solving learning problems in which some sets of features/views are more informative than others, or the features/views within a given set are inconsistent. In this paper, we first present a novel probabilistic interpretation of MKL such that maximum entropy discrimination with a noninformative prior over multiple views is equivalent to the formulation of MKL. Instead of using the noninformative prior, we introduce a novel data-dependent prior based on an ensemble of kernel predictors, which enhances the prediction performance of MKL by leveraging the merits of the classifier ensemble. With the proposed probabilistic framework of MKL, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to learn the proposed data-dependent prior and classification model simultaneously. The resultant problem is convex and other information (e.g., instances with either missing views or missing labels) can be seamlessly incorporated into the data-dependent priors. Furthermore, a variety of existing MKL models can be recovered under the proposed MKL framework and can be readily extended to incorporate these priors. Extensive experiments demonstrate the benefits of our proposed framework in supervised and semisupervised settings, as well as in tasks with partial correspondence among multiple views.

Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

PubMed Central

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

2012-01-01

We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists. PMID:22582739

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: Methods and application to the Burgberg Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; Enzenhoefer, R.; Bunk, T.

2013-12-01

Wellhead protection zones are commonly delineated via advective travel time analysis without considering any aspects of model uncertainty. In the past decade, research efforts produced quantifiable risk-based safety margins for protection zones. They are based on well vulnerability criteria (e.g., travel times, exposure times, peak concentrations) cast into a probabilistic setting, i.e., they consider model and parameter uncertainty. Practitioners still refrain from applying these new techniques for mainly three reasons. (1) They fear the possibly cost-intensive additional areal demand of probabilistic safety margins, (2) probabilistic approaches are allegedly complex, not readily available, and consume huge computing resources, and (3) uncertainty bounds are fuzzy, whereas final decisions are binary. The primary goal of this study is to show that these reservations are unjustified. We present a straightforward and computationally affordable framework based on a novel combination of well-known tools (e.g., MODFLOW, PEST, Monte Carlo). This framework provides risk-informed decision support for robust and transparent wellhead delineation under uncertainty. Thus, probabilistic risk-informed wellhead protection is possible with methods readily available for practitioners. As vivid proof of concept, we illustrate our key points on a pumped karstic well catchment, located in Germany. In the case study, we show that reliability levels can be increased by re-allocating the existing delineated area at no increase in delineated area. This is achieved by simply swapping delineated low-risk areas against previously non-delineated high-risk areas. Also, we show that further improvements may often be available at only low additional delineation area. Depending on the context, increases or reductions of delineated area directly translate to costs and benefits, if the land is priced, or if land owners need to be compensated for land use restrictions.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

2017-12-01

The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Acoustic emission based damage localization in composites structures using Bayesian identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Al-Jumali, S.; Sikdar, S.; Pullin, R.

2017-05-01

Acoustic emission based damage detection in composite structures is based on detection of ultra high frequency packets of acoustic waves emitted from damage sources (such as fibre breakage, fatigue fracture, amongst others) with a network of distributed sensors. This non-destructive monitoring scheme requires solving an inverse problem where the measured signals are linked back to the location of the source. This in turn enables rapid deployment of mitigative measures. The presence of significant amount of uncertainty associated with the operating conditions and measurements makes the problem of damage identification quite challenging. The uncertainties stem from the fact that the measured signals are affected by the irregular geometries, manufacturing imprecision, imperfect boundary conditions, existing damages/structural degradation, amongst others. This work aims to tackle these uncertainties within a framework of automated probabilistic damage detection. The method trains a probabilistic model of the parametrized input and output model of the acoustic emission system with experimental data to give probabilistic descriptors of damage locations. A response surface modelling the acoustic emission as a function of parametrized damage signals collected from sensors would be calibrated with a training dataset using Bayesian inference. This is used to deduce damage locations in the online monitoring phase. During online monitoring, the spatially correlated time data is utilized in conjunction with the calibrated acoustic emissions model to infer the probabilistic description of the acoustic emission source within a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. The methodology is tested on a composite structure consisting of carbon fibre panel with stiffeners and damage source behaviour has been experimentally simulated using standard H-N sources. The methodology presented in this study would be applicable in the current form to structural damage detection under varying operational loads and would be investigated in future studies.

Fast algorithm for probabilistic bone edge detection (FAPBED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scepanovic, Danilo; Kirshtein, Joshua; Jain, Ameet K.; Taylor, Russell H.

2005-04-01

The registration of preoperative CT to intra-operative reality systems is a crucial step in Computer Assisted Orthopedic Surgery (CAOS). The intra-operative sensors include 3D digitizers, fiducials, X-rays and Ultrasound (US). FAPBED is designed to process CT volumes for registration to tracked US data. Tracked US is advantageous because it is real time, noninvasive, and non-ionizing, but it is also known to have inherent inaccuracies which create the need to develop a framework that is robust to various uncertainties, and can be useful in US-CT registration. Furthermore, conventional registration methods depend on accurate and absolute segmentation. Our proposed probabilistic framework addresses the segmentation-registration duality, wherein exact segmentation is not a prerequisite to achieve accurate registration. In this paper, we develop a method for fast and automatic probabilistic bone surface (edge) detection in CT images. Various features that influence the likelihood of the surface at each spatial coordinate are combined using a simple probabilistic framework, which strikes a fair balance between a high-level understanding of features in an image and the low-level number crunching of standard image processing techniques. The algorithm evaluates different features for detecting the probability of a bone surface at each voxel, and compounds the results of these methods to yield a final, low-noise, probability map of bone surfaces in the volume. Such a probability map can then be used in conjunction with a similar map from tracked intra-operative US to achieve accurate registration. Eight sample pelvic CT scans were used to extract feature parameters and validate the final probability maps. An un-optimized fully automatic Matlab code runs in five minutes per CT volume on average, and was validated by comparison against hand-segmented gold standards. The mean probability assigned to nonzero surface points was 0.8, while nonzero non-surface points had a mean value of 0.38 indicating clear identification of surface points on average. The segmentation was also sufficiently crisp, with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) value of 1.51 voxels.

Landslide Hazard Probability Derived from Inherent and Dynamic Determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach combines an empirical inherent landslide probability with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining routed recharge from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model run in a Monte Carlo simulation. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by adjusting the dynamic model of stability with an empirically-based scalar representing the inherent stability of the landscape, creating a probabilistic quantitative measure of geohazard prediction at a 30-m resolution. Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and the empirical information further improves the discriminating ability of the integrated model. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged terrain with nearly 2,700 m (9,000 ft) of vertical relief, covering 2757 sq km (1064 sq mi) in northern Washington State, U.S.A.

A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

Discriminative confidence estimation for probabilistic multi-atlas label fusion.

PubMed

Benkarim, Oualid M; Piella, Gemma; González Ballester, Miguel Angel; Sanroma, Gerard

2017-12-01

Quantitative neuroimaging analyses often rely on the accurate segmentation of anatomical brain structures. In contrast to manual segmentation, automatic methods offer reproducible outputs and provide scalability to study large databases. Among existing approaches, multi-atlas segmentation has recently shown to yield state-of-the-art performance in automatic segmentation of brain images. It consists in propagating the labelmaps from a set of atlases to the anatomy of a target image using image registration, and then fusing these multiple warped labelmaps into a consensus segmentation on the target image. Accurately estimating the contribution of each atlas labelmap to the final segmentation is a critical step for the success of multi-atlas segmentation. Common approaches to label fusion either rely on local patch similarity, probabilistic statistical frameworks or a combination of both. In this work, we propose a probabilistic label fusion framework based on atlas label confidences computed at each voxel of the structure of interest. Maximum likelihood atlas confidences are estimated using a supervised approach, explicitly modeling the relationship between local image appearances and segmentation errors produced by each of the atlases. We evaluate different spatial pooling strategies for modeling local segmentation errors. We also present a novel type of label-dependent appearance features based on atlas labelmaps that are used during confidence estimation to increase the accuracy of our label fusion. Our approach is evaluated on the segmentation of seven subcortical brain structures from the MICCAI 2013 SATA Challenge dataset and the hippocampi from the ADNI dataset. Overall, our results indicate that the proposed label fusion framework achieves superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches in the majority of the evaluated brain structures and shows more robustness to registration errors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloat, Matthew R.; Fraser, Dylan J.; Dunham, Jason B.; Falke, Jeffery A.; Jordan, Chris E.; McMillan, John R.; Ohms, Haley A.

2014-01-01

Reproductive tactics and migratory strategies in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines are inextricably linked through the effects of migration (or lack thereof) on age and size at maturity. In this review, we focus on the ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in salmonines, a key process resulting in the diversification of their life histories. We demonstrate that the energetics of maturation and reproduction provides a unifying theme for understanding both the proximate and ultimate causes of variation in reproductive schedules among species, populations, and the sexes. We use probabilistic maturation reaction norms to illustrate how variation in individual condition, in terms of body size, growth rate, and lipid storage, influences the timing of maturation. This useful framework integrates both genetic and environmental contributions to conditional strategies for maturation and, in doing so, demonstrates how flexible life histories can be both heritable and subject to strong environmental influences. We review evidence that the propensity for freshwater maturation in partially anadromous species is predictable across environmental gradients at geographic and local spatial scales. We note that growth is commonly associated with the propensity for freshwater maturation, but that life-history responses to changes in growth caused by temperature may be strikingly different than changes caused by differences in food availability. We conclude by exploring how contemporary management actions can constrain or promote the diversity of maturation phenotypes in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines and caution against underestimating the role of freshwater maturing forms in maintaining the resiliency of these iconic species.

A discriminative model-constrained graph cuts approach to fully automated pediatric brain tumor segmentation in 3-D MRI.

PubMed

Wels, Michael; Carneiro, Gustavo; Aplas, Alexander; Huber, Martin; Hornegger, Joachim; Comaniciu, Dorin

2008-01-01

In this paper we present a fully automated approach to the segmentation of pediatric brain tumors in multi-spectral 3-D magnetic resonance images. It is a top-down segmentation approach based on a Markov random field (MRF) model that combines probabilistic boosting trees (PBT) and lower-level segmentation via graph cuts. The PBT algorithm provides a strong discriminative observation model that classifies tumor appearance while a spatial prior takes into account the pair-wise homogeneity in terms of classification labels and multi-spectral voxel intensities. The discriminative model relies not only on observed local intensities but also on surrounding context for detecting candidate regions for pathology. A mathematically sound formulation for integrating the two approaches into a unified statistical framework is given. The proposed method is applied to the challenging task of detection and delineation of pediatric brain tumors. This segmentation task is characterized by a high non-uniformity of both the pathology and the surrounding non-pathologic brain tissue. A quantitative evaluation illustrates the robustness of the proposed method. Despite dealing with more complicated cases of pediatric brain tumors the results obtained are mostly better than those reported for current state-of-the-art approaches to 3-D MR brain tumor segmentation in adult patients. The entire processing of one multi-spectral data set does not require any user interaction, and takes less time than previously proposed methods.

Unified framework for information integration based on information geometry

PubMed Central

Oizumi, Masafumi; Amari, Shun-ichi

2016-01-01

Assessment of causal influences is a ubiquitous and important subject across diverse research fields. Drawn from consciousness studies, integrated information is a measure that defines integration as the degree of causal influences among elements. Whereas pairwise causal influences between elements can be quantified with existing methods, quantifying multiple influences among many elements poses two major mathematical difficulties. First, overestimation occurs due to interdependence among influences if each influence is separately quantified in a part-based manner and then simply summed over. Second, it is difficult to isolate causal influences while avoiding noncausal confounding influences. To resolve these difficulties, we propose a theoretical framework based on information geometry for the quantification of multiple causal influences with a holistic approach. We derive a measure of integrated information, which is geometrically interpreted as the divergence between the actual probability distribution of a system and an approximated probability distribution where causal influences among elements are statistically disconnected. This framework provides intuitive geometric interpretations harmonizing various information theoretic measures in a unified manner, including mutual information, transfer entropy, stochastic interaction, and integrated information, each of which is characterized by how causal influences are disconnected. In addition to the mathematical assessment of consciousness, our framework should help to analyze causal relationships in complex systems in a complete and hierarchical manner. PMID:27930289

Towards a unified model of passive drug permeation I: origins of the unstirred water layer with applications to ionic permeation.

PubMed

Ghosh, Avijit; Scott, Dennis O; Maurer, Tristan S

2014-02-14

In this work, we provide a unified theoretical framework describing how drug molecules can permeate across membranes in neutral and ionized forms for unstirred in vitro systems. The analysis provides a self-consistent basis for the origin of the unstirred water layer (UWL) within the Nernst-Planck framework in the fully unstirred limit and further provides an accounting mechanism based simply on the bulk aqueous solvent diffusion constant of the drug molecule. Our framework makes no new assumptions about the underlying physics of molecular permeation. We hold simply that Nernst-Planck is a reasonable approximation at low concentrations and all physical systems must conserve mass. The applicability of the derived framework has been examined both with respect to the effect of stirring and externally applied voltages to measured permeability. The analysis contains data for 9 compounds extracted from the literature representing a range of permeabilities and aqueous diffusion coefficients. Applicability with respect to ionized permeation is examined using literature data for the permanently charged cation, crystal violet, providing a basis for the underlying mechanism for ionized drug permeation for this molecule as being due to mobile counter-current flow. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Unified Framework for Street-View Panorama Stitching

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Yao, Jian; Xie, Renping; Xia, Menghan; Zhang, Wei

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a unified framework to generate a pleasant and high-quality street-view panorama by stitching multiple panoramic images captured from the cameras mounted on the mobile platform. Our proposed framework is comprised of four major steps: image warping, color correction, optimal seam line detection and image blending. Since the input images are captured without a precisely common projection center from the scenes with the depth differences with respect to the cameras to different extents, such images cannot be precisely aligned in geometry. Therefore, an efficient image warping method based on the dense optical flow field is proposed to greatly suppress the influence of large geometric misalignment at first. Then, to lessen the influence of photometric inconsistencies caused by the illumination variations and different exposure settings, we propose an efficient color correction algorithm via matching extreme points of histograms to greatly decrease color differences between warped images. After that, the optimal seam lines between adjacent input images are detected via the graph cut energy minimization framework. At last, the Laplacian pyramid blending algorithm is applied to further eliminate the stitching artifacts along the optimal seam lines. Experimental results on a large set of challenging street-view panoramic images captured form the real world illustrate that the proposed system is capable of creating high-quality panoramas. PMID:28025481

A Unified Analysis of Structured Sonar-terrain Data using Bayesian Functional Mixed Models.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongxiao; Caspers, Philip; Morris, Jeffrey S; Wu, Xiaowei; Müller, Rolf

2018-01-01

Sonar emits pulses of sound and uses the reflected echoes to gain information about target objects. It offers a low cost, complementary sensing modality for small robotic platforms. While existing analytical approaches often assume independence across echoes, real sonar data can have more complicated structures due to device setup or experimental design. In this paper, we consider sonar echo data collected from multiple terrain substrates with a dual-channel sonar head. Our goals are to identify the differential sonar responses to terrains and study the effectiveness of this dual-channel design in discriminating targets. We describe a unified analytical framework that achieves these goals rigorously, simultaneously, and automatically. The analysis was done by treating the echo envelope signals as functional responses and the terrain/channel information as covariates in a functional regression setting. We adopt functional mixed models that facilitate the estimation of terrain and channel effects while capturing the complex hierarchical structure in data. This unified analytical framework incorporates both Gaussian models and robust models. We fit the models using a full Bayesian approach, which enables us to perform multiple inferential tasks under the same modeling framework, including selecting models, estimating the effects of interest, identifying significant local regions, discriminating terrain types, and describing the discriminatory power of local regions. Our analysis of the sonar-terrain data identifies time regions that reflect differential sonar responses to terrains. The discriminant analysis suggests that a multi- or dual-channel design achieves target identification performance comparable with or better than a single-channel design.

A Unified Analysis of Structured Sonar-terrain Data using Bayesian Functional Mixed Models

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongxiao; Caspers, Philip; Morris, Jeffrey S.; Wu, Xiaowei; Müller, Rolf

2017-01-01

Sonar emits pulses of sound and uses the reflected echoes to gain information about target objects. It offers a low cost, complementary sensing modality for small robotic platforms. While existing analytical approaches often assume independence across echoes, real sonar data can have more complicated structures due to device setup or experimental design. In this paper, we consider sonar echo data collected from multiple terrain substrates with a dual-channel sonar head. Our goals are to identify the differential sonar responses to terrains and study the effectiveness of this dual-channel design in discriminating targets. We describe a unified analytical framework that achieves these goals rigorously, simultaneously, and automatically. The analysis was done by treating the echo envelope signals as functional responses and the terrain/channel information as covariates in a functional regression setting. We adopt functional mixed models that facilitate the estimation of terrain and channel effects while capturing the complex hierarchical structure in data. This unified analytical framework incorporates both Gaussian models and robust models. We fit the models using a full Bayesian approach, which enables us to perform multiple inferential tasks under the same modeling framework, including selecting models, estimating the effects of interest, identifying significant local regions, discriminating terrain types, and describing the discriminatory power of local regions. Our analysis of the sonar-terrain data identifies time regions that reflect differential sonar responses to terrains. The discriminant analysis suggests that a multi- or dual-channel design achieves target identification performance comparable with or better than a single-channel design. PMID:29749977

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F.

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two typesmore » of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.« less

An impatient evolutionary algorithm with probabilistic tabu search for unified solution of some NP-hard problems in graph and set theory via clique finding.

PubMed

Guturu, Parthasarathy; Dantu, Ram

2008-06-01

Many graph- and set-theoretic problems, because of their tremendous application potential and theoretical appeal, have been well investigated by the researchers in complexity theory and were found to be NP-hard. Since the combinatorial complexity of these problems does not permit exhaustive searches for optimal solutions, only near-optimal solutions can be explored using either various problem-specific heuristic strategies or metaheuristic global-optimization methods, such as simulated annealing, genetic algorithms, etc. In this paper, we propose a unified evolutionary algorithm (EA) to the problems of maximum clique finding, maximum independent set, minimum vertex cover, subgraph and double subgraph isomorphism, set packing, set partitioning, and set cover. In the proposed approach, we first map these problems onto the maximum clique-finding problem (MCP), which is later solved using an evolutionary strategy. The proposed impatient EA with probabilistic tabu search (IEA-PTS) for the MCP integrates the best features of earlier successful approaches with a number of new heuristics that we developed to yield a performance that advances the state of the art in EAs for the exploration of the maximum cliques in a graph. Results of experimentation with the 37 DIMACS benchmark graphs and comparative analyses with six state-of-the-art algorithms, including two from the smaller EA community and four from the larger metaheuristics community, indicate that the IEA-PTS outperforms the EAs with respect to a Pareto-lexicographic ranking criterion and offers competitive performance on some graph instances when individually compared to the other heuristic algorithms. It has also successfully set a new benchmark on one graph instance. On another benchmark suite called Benchmarks with Hidden Optimal Solutions, IEA-PTS ranks second, after a very recent algorithm called COVER, among its peers that have experimented with this suite.

Brain-Mind Operational Architectonics Imaging: Technical and Methodological Aspects

PubMed Central

Fingelkurts, Andrew A; Fingelkurts, Alexander A

2008-01-01

This review paper deals with methodological and technical foundations of the Operational Architectonics framework of brain and mind functioning. This theory provides a framework for mapping and understanding important aspects of the brain mechanisms that constitute perception, cognition, and eventually consciousness. The methods utilized within Operational Architectonics framework allow analyzing with an incredible detail the operational behavior of local neuronal assemblies and their joint activity in the form of unified and metastable operational modules, which constitute the whole hierarchy of brain operations, operations of cognition and phenomenal consciousness. PMID:19526071

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; DeCastro, Jonathan A.; Zhang, Xiaodong; Farfan-Ramos, Luis; Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Reframing Information Literacy as a Metaliteracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackey, Thomas P.; Jacobson, Trudi E.

2011-01-01

Social media environments and online communities are innovative collaborative technologies that challenge traditional definitions of information literacy. Metaliteracy is an overarching and self-referential framework that integrates emerging technologies and unifies multiple literacy types. This redefinition of information literacy expands the…

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Dry Cask Structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bencturk, Bora; Padgett, Jamie; Uddin, Rizwan

systems the concrete shall not only provide shielding but insures stability of the upright canister, facilitates anchoring, allows ventilation, and provides physical protection against theft, severe weather and natural (seismic) as well as man-made events (blast incidences). Given the need to remain functional for 40 years or even longer in case of interim storage, the concrete outerpack and the internal canister components need to be evaluated with regard to their long-term ability to perform their intended design functions. Just as evidenced by deteriorating concrete bridges, there are reported visible degradation mechanisms of dry storage systems especially when high corrosive environmentsmore » are considered in maritime locations. The degradation of reinforced concrete is caused by multiple physical and chemical mechanisms, which may be summarized under the heading of environmental aging. The underlying hygro-thermal transport processes are accelerated by irradiation effects, hence creep and shrinkage need to include the effect of chloride penetration, alkali aggregate reaction as well as corrosion of the reinforcing steel. In light of the above, the two main objectives of this project are to (1) develop a probabilistic multi-hazard assessment framework, and (2) through experimental and numerical research perform a comprehensive assessment under combined earthquake loads and aging induced deterioration, which will also provide data for the development and validation of the probabilistic framework.« less

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leser, Patrick E.; Newman, John A.; Warner, James E.; Leser, William P.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo

2016-01-01

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

A MULTISCALE FRAMEWORK FOR THE STOCHASTIC ASSIMILATION AND MODELING OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED NCF COMPOSITE MATERIALS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehrez, Loujaine; Ghanem, Roger; McAuliffe, Colin

multiscale framework to construct stochastic macroscopic constitutive material models is proposed. A spectral projection approach, specifically polynomial chaos expansion, has been used to construct explicit functional relationships between the homogenized properties and input parameters from finer scales. A homogenization engine embedded in Multiscale Designer, software for composite materials, has been used for the upscaling process. The framework is demonstrated using non-crimp fabric composite materials by constructing probabilistic models of the homogenized properties of a non-crimp fabric laminate in terms of the input parameters together with the homogenized properties from finer scales.

Development and validation of deterioration models for concrete bridge decks - phase 2 : mechanics-based degradation models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This report summarizes a research project aimed at developing degradation models for bridge decks in the state of Michigan based on durability mechanics. A probabilistic framework to implement local-level mechanistic-based models for predicting the c...

Robust infrared targets tracking with covariance matrix representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jian

2009-07-01

Robust infrared target tracking is an important and challenging research topic in many military and security applications, such as infrared imaging guidance, infrared reconnaissance, scene surveillance, etc. To effectively tackle the nonlinear and non-Gaussian state estimation problems, particle filtering is introduced to construct the theory framework of infrared target tracking. Under this framework, the observation probabilistic model is one of main factors for infrared targets tracking performance. In order to improve the tracking performance, covariance matrices are introduced to represent infrared targets with the multi-features. The observation probabilistic model can be constructed by computing the distance between the reference target's and the target samples' covariance matrix. Because the covariance matrix provides a natural tool for integrating multiple features, and is scale and illumination independent, target representation with covariance matrices can hold strong discriminating ability and robustness. Two experimental results demonstrate the proposed method is effective and robust for different infrared target tracking, such as the sensor ego-motion scene, and the sea-clutter scene.

Resilient Grid Operational Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

Extreme weather-related disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a leading cause of grid outages historically. Although physical asset hardening is perhaps the most common way to mitigate the impacts of severe weather, operational strategies may be deployed to limit the extent of societal and economic losses associated with weather-related physical damage.1 The purpose of this study is to examine bulk power-system operational strategies that can be deployed to mitigate the impact of severe weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, thereby increasing grid resilience to maintain continuity of critical infrastructure during extreme weather. To estimate the impacts of resilient grid operational strategies, Losmore » Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) developed a framework for hurricane probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). The probabilistic nature of this framework allows us to estimate the probability distribution of likely impacts, as opposed to the worst-case impacts. The project scope does not include strategies that are not operations related, such as transmission system hardening (e.g., undergrounding, transmission tower reinforcement and substation flood protection) and solutions in the distribution network.« less

Decoding brain activity using a large-scale probabilistic functional-anatomical atlas of human cognition

PubMed Central

Jones, Michael N.

2017-01-01

A central goal of cognitive neuroscience is to decode human brain activity—that is, to infer mental processes from observed patterns of whole-brain activation. Previous decoding efforts have focused on classifying brain activity into a small set of discrete cognitive states. To attain maximal utility, a decoding framework must be open-ended, systematic, and context-sensitive—that is, capable of interpreting numerous brain states, presented in arbitrary combinations, in light of prior information. Here we take steps towards this objective by introducing a probabilistic decoding framework based on a novel topic model—Generalized Correspondence Latent Dirichlet Allocation—that learns latent topics from a database of over 11,000 published fMRI studies. The model produces highly interpretable, spatially-circumscribed topics that enable flexible decoding of whole-brain images. Importantly, the Bayesian nature of the model allows one to “seed” decoder priors with arbitrary images and text—enabling researchers, for the first time, to generate quantitative, context-sensitive interpretations of whole-brain patterns of brain activity. PMID:29059185

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

Astrobiological complexity with probabilistic cellular automata.

PubMed

Vukotić, Branislav; Ćirković, Milan M

2012-08-01

The search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling the astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous space of the input parameters. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories with "Copernican" choice of input parameters and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.

A UML profile for framework modeling.

PubMed

Xu, Xiao-liang; Wang, Le-yu; Zhou, Hong

2004-01-01

The current standard Unified Modeling Language(UML) could not model framework flexibility and extendability adequately due to lack of appropriate constructs to distinguish framework hot-spots from kernel elements. A new UML profile that may customize UML for framework modeling was presented using the extension mechanisms of UML, providing a group of UML extensions to meet the needs of framework modeling. In this profile, the extended class diagrams and sequence diagrams were defined to straightforwardly identify the hot-spots and describe their instantiation restrictions. A transformation model based on design patterns was also put forward, such that the profile based framework design diagrams could be automatically mapped to the corresponding implementation diagrams. It was proved that the presented profile makes framework modeling more straightforwardly and therefore easier to understand and instantiate.

Self-Efficacy: Toward a Unifying Theory of Behavioral Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bandura, Albert

1977-01-01

This research presents an integrative theoretical framework to explain and to predict psychological changes achieved by different modes of treatment. This theory states that psychological procedures, whatever their form, alter the level and strength of "self-efficacy". (Editor/RK)

COMPLEMENTARITY OF ECOLOGICAL GOAL FUNCTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper summarizes, in the framework of network environ analysis, a set of analyses of energy-matter flow and storage in steady state systems. The network perspective is used to codify and unify ten ecological orientors or external principles: maximum power (Lotka), maximum st...

Optimization of Systems with Uncertainty: Initial Developments for Performance, Robustness and Reliability Based Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper presents a study on the optimization of systems with structured uncertainties, whose inputs and outputs can be exhaustively described in the probabilistic sense. By propagating the uncertainty from the input to the output in the space of the probability density functions and the moments, optimization problems that pursue performance, robustness and reliability based designs are studied. Be specifying the desired outputs in terms of desired probability density functions and then in terms of meaningful probabilistic indices, we settle a computationally viable framework for solving practical optimization problems. Applications to static optimization and stability control are used to illustrate the relevance of incorporating uncertainty in the early stages of the design. Several examples that admit a full probabilistic description of the output in terms of the design variables and the uncertain inputs are used to elucidate the main features of the generic problem and its solution. Extensions to problems that do not admit closed form solutions are also evaluated. Concrete evidence of the importance of using a consistent probabilistic formulation of the optimization problem and a meaningful probabilistic description of its solution is provided in the examples. In the stability control problem the analysis shows that standard deterministic approaches lead to designs with high probability of running into instability. The implementation of such designs can indeed have catastrophic consequences.

What is the Value Added to Adaptation Planning by Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.

2008-12-01

Probabilistic projections of climate change offer new sources of risk information to support regional impacts assessment and adaptation options appraisal. However, questions continue to surround how best to apply these scenarios in a practical context, and whether the added complexity and computational burden leads to more robust decision-making. This paper provides an overview of recent efforts in the UK to 'bench-test' frameworks for employing probabilistic projections ahead of the release of the next generation, UKCIP08 projections (in November 2008). This is involving close collaboration between government agencies, research and stakeholder communities. Three examples will be cited to illustrate how probabilistic projections are already informing decisions about future flood risk management in London, water resource planning in trial river basins, and assessments of risks from rising water temperatures to Atlantic salmon stocks in southern England. When compared with conventional deterministic scenarios, ensemble projections allow exploration of a wider range of management options and highlight timescales for implementing adaptation measures. Users of probabilistic scenarios must keep in mind that other uncertainties (e.g., due to impacts model structure and parameterisation) should be handled in an equally rigorous way to those arising from climate models and emission scenarios. Finally, it is noted that a commitment to long-term monitoring is also critical for tracking environmental change, testing model projections, and for evaluating the success (or not) of any scenario-led interventions.

Cloud-enabled large-scale land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, D.; Vaughan, G.; Clark, M. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Rheingrover, S.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J. V.

2017-12-01

Developed by the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Land Information System (LIS) is a high-performance software framework for terrestrial hydrology modeling and data assimilation. LIS provides the ability to integrate satellite and ground-based observational products and advanced modeling algorithms to extract land surface states and fluxes. Through a partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington, the LIS model is currently being extended to include the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA). With the addition of SUMMA in LIS, meaningful simulations containing a large multi-model ensemble will be enabled and can provide advanced probabilistic continental-domain modeling capabilities at spatial scales relevant for water managers. The resulting LIS/SUMMA application framework is difficult for non-experts to install due to the large amount of dependencies on specific versions of operating systems, libraries, and compilers. This has created a significant barrier to entry for domain scientists that are interested in using the software on their own systems or in the cloud. In addition, the requirement to support multiple run time environments across the LIS community has created a significant burden on the NASA team. To overcome these challenges, LIS/SUMMA has been deployed using Linux containers, which allows for an entire software package along with all dependences to be installed within a working runtime environment, and Kubernetes, which orchestrates the deployment of a cluster of containers. Within a cloud environment, users can now easily create a cluster of virtual machines and run large-scale LIS/SUMMA simulations. Installations that have taken weeks and months can now be performed in minutes of time. This presentation will discuss the steps required to create a cloud-enabled large-scale simulation, present examples of its use, and describe the potential deployment of this information technology with other NASA applications.

Chimaera simulation of complex states of flowing matter

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We discuss a unified mesoscale framework (chimaera) for the simulation of complex states of flowing matter across scales of motion. The chimaera framework can deal with each of the three macro–meso–micro levels through suitable ‘mutations’ of the basic mesoscale formulation. The idea is illustrated through selected simulations of complex micro- and nanoscale flows. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Multiscale modelling at the physics–chemistry–biology interface’. PMID:27698031

Intuitive Interference in Probabilistic Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Babai, Reuven; Brecher, Tali; Stavy, Ruth; Tirosh, Dina

2006-01-01

One theoretical framework which addresses students' conceptions and reasoning processes in mathematics and science education is the intuitive rules theory. According to this theory, students' reasoning is affected by intuitive rules when they solve a wide variety of conceptually non-related mathematical and scientific tasks that share some common…

Stochastic Robust Mathematical Programming Model for Power System Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Cong; Changhyeok, Lee; Haoyong, Chen

2016-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic robust framework for two-stage power system optimization problems with uncertainty. The model optimizes the probabilistic expectation of different worst-case scenarios with ifferent uncertainty sets. A case study of unit commitment shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.

Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

2012-10-01

Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

Event-Based Media Enrichment Using an Adaptive Probabilistic Hypergraph Model.

PubMed

Liu, Xueliang; Wang, Meng; Yin, Bao-Cai; Huet, Benoit; Li, Xuelong

2015-11-01

Nowadays, with the continual development of digital capture technologies and social media services, a vast number of media documents are captured and shared online to help attendees record their experience during events. In this paper, we present a method combining semantic inference and multimodal analysis for automatically finding media content to illustrate events using an adaptive probabilistic hypergraph model. In this model, media items are taken as vertices in the weighted hypergraph and the task of enriching media to illustrate events is formulated as a ranking problem. In our method, each hyperedge is constructed using the K-nearest neighbors of a given media document. We also employ a probabilistic representation, which assigns each vertex to a hyperedge in a probabilistic way, to further exploit the correlation among media data. Furthermore, we optimize the hypergraph weights in a regularization framework, which is solved as a second-order cone problem. The approach is initiated by seed media and then used to rank the media documents using a transductive inference process. The results obtained from validating the approach on an event dataset collected from EventMedia demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

ProbCD: enrichment analysis accounting for categorization uncertainty.

PubMed

Vêncio, Ricardo Z N; Shmulevich, Ilya

2007-10-12

As in many other areas of science, systems biology makes extensive use of statistical association and significance estimates in contingency tables, a type of categorical data analysis known in this field as enrichment (also over-representation or enhancement) analysis. In spite of efforts to create probabilistic annotations, especially in the Gene Ontology context, or to deal with uncertainty in high throughput-based datasets, current enrichment methods largely ignore this probabilistic information since they are mainly based on variants of the Fisher Exact Test. We developed an open-source R-based software to deal with probabilistic categorical data analysis, ProbCD, that does not require a static contingency table. The contingency table for the enrichment problem is built using the expectation of a Bernoulli Scheme stochastic process given the categorization probabilities. An on-line interface was created to allow usage by non-programmers and is available at: http://xerad.systemsbiology.net/ProbCD/. We present an analysis framework and software tools to address the issue of uncertainty in categorical data analysis. In particular, concerning the enrichment analysis, ProbCD can accommodate: (i) the stochastic nature of the high-throughput experimental techniques and (ii) probabilistic gene annotation.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Clinical data integration model. Core interoperability ontology for research using primary care data.

PubMed

Ethier, J-F; Curcin, V; Barton, A; McGilchrist, M M; Bastiaens, H; Andreasson, A; Rossiter, J; Zhao, L; Arvanitis, T N; Taweel, A; Delaney, B C; Burgun, A

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of METHODS of Information in Medicine on "Managing Interoperability and Complexity in Health Systems". Primary care data is the single richest source of routine health care data. However its use, both in research and clinical work, often requires data from multiple clinical sites, clinical trials databases and registries. Data integration and interoperability are therefore of utmost importance. TRANSFoRm's general approach relies on a unified interoperability framework, described in a previous paper. We developed a core ontology for an interoperability framework based on data mediation. This article presents how such an ontology, the Clinical Data Integration Model (CDIM), can be designed to support, in conjunction with appropriate terminologies, biomedical data federation within TRANSFoRm, an EU FP7 project that aims to develop the digital infrastructure for a learning healthcare system in European Primary Care. TRANSFoRm utilizes a unified structural / terminological interoperability framework, based on the local-as-view mediation paradigm. Such an approach mandates the global information model to describe the domain of interest independently of the data sources to be explored. Following a requirement analysis process, no ontology focusing on primary care research was identified and, thus we designed a realist ontology based on Basic Formal Ontology to support our framework in collaboration with various terminologies used in primary care. The resulting ontology has 549 classes and 82 object properties and is used to support data integration for TRANSFoRm's use cases. Concepts identified by researchers were successfully expressed in queries using CDIM and pertinent terminologies. As an example, we illustrate how, in TRANSFoRm, the Query Formulation Workbench can capture eligibility criteria in a computable representation, which is based on CDIM. A unified mediation approach to semantic interoperability provides a flexible and extensible framework for all types of interaction between health record systems and research systems. CDIM, as core ontology of such an approach, enables simplicity and consistency of design across the heterogeneous software landscape and can support the specific needs of EHR-driven phenotyping research using primary care data.

Community health workers in Brazil's Unified Health System: a framework of their praxis and contributions to patient health behaviors.

PubMed

Pinto, Rogério M; da Silva, Sueli Bulhões; Soriano, Rafaela

2012-03-01

Community health workers (CHWs) play a pivotal role in primary care, serving as liaisons between community members and medical providers. However, the growing reliance of health care systems worldwide on CHWs has outpaced research explaining their praxis - how they combine indigenous and technical knowledge, overcome challenges and impact patient outcomes. This paper thus articulates the CHW Praxis and Patient Health Behavior Framework. Such a framework is needed to advance research on CHW impact on patient outcomes and to advance CHW training. The project that originated this framework followed community-based participatory research principles. A team of U.S.-Brazil research partners, including CHWs, worked together from conceptualization of the study to dissemination of its findings. The framework is built on an integrated conceptual foundation including learning/teaching and individual behavior theories. The empirical base of the framework comprises in-depth interviews with 30 CHWs in Brazil's Unified Health System, Mesquita, Rio de Janeiro. Data collection for the project which originated this report occurred in 2008-10. Semi-structured questions examined how CHWs used their knowledge/skills; addressed personal and environmental challenges; and how they promoted patient health behaviors. This study advances an explanation of how CHWs use self-identified strategies--i.e., empathic communication and perseverance--to help patients engage in health behaviors. Grounded in our proposed framework, survey measures can be developed and used in predictive models testing the effects of CHW praxis on health behaviors. Training for CHWs can explicitly integrate indigenous and technical knowledge in order for CHWs to overcome contextual challenges and enhance service delivery. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community Health Workers in Brazil's Unified Health System: A Framework of their Praxis and Contributions to Patient Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Pinto, Rogério M.; da Silva, Sueli Bulhões; Soriano, Rafaela

2012-01-01

Community Health Workers (CHWs) play a pivotal role in primary care, serving as liaisons between community members and medical providers. However, the growing reliance of health care systems worldwide on CHWs has outpaced research explaining their praxis – how they combine indigenous and technical knowledge, overcome challenges and impact patient outcomes. This paper thus articulates the CHW Praxis and Patient Health Behavior Framework. Such a framework is needed to advance research on CHW impact on patient outcomes and to advance CHW training. The project that originated this framework followed Community-Based Participatory Research principles. A team of U.S.-Brazil research partners, including CHWs, worked together from conceptualization of the study to dissemination of its findings. The framework is built on an integrated conceptual foundation including learning/teaching and individual behavior theories. The empirical base of the framework comprises in-depth interviews with 30 CHWs in Brazil's Unified Health System, Mesquita, Rio de Janeiro. Data collection for the project which originated this report occurred in 2008–10. Semi-structured questions examined how CHWs used their knowledge/skills; addressed personal and environmental challenges; and how they promoted patient health behaviors. This study advances an explanation of how CHWs use self-identified strategies – i.e., empathic communication and perseverance – to help patients engage in health behaviors. Grounded in our proposed framework, survey measures can be developed and used in predictive models testing the effects of CHW praxis on health behaviors. Training for CHWs can explicitly integrate indigenous and technical knowledge in order for CHWs to overcome contextual challenges and enhance service delivery. PMID:22305469

Multiscale Modelling and Analysis of Collective Decision Making in Swarm Robotics

PubMed Central

Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable. PMID:25369026

Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Sharma, Ashish

2009-11-01

Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in "gambling" with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating policies is "protected" by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or water availability conditions, the manager has little incentive to change. Innovation in allocation and operation is hence key to improved risk management using such forecasts. A participatory water allocation process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part of an adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can express their demand for water through statements that cover the quantity needed at a particular reliability, the temporal distribution of the "allocation," the associated willingness to pay, and compensation in the event of contract nonperformance. The water manager then assesses feasible allocations using the probabilistic forecast that try to meet these criteria across all users. An iterative process between users and water manager could be used to formalize a set of short-term contracts that represent the resulting prioritized water allocation strategy over the operating period for which the forecast was issued. These contracts can be used to allocate water each year/season beyond long-term contracts that may have precedence. Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser optimization model that can support such an allocation process is presented. The application of this conceptual model is explored using data for the Jaguaribe Metropolitan Hydro System in Ceara, Brazil. The performance relative to the current allocation process is assessed in the context of whether such a model could support the proposed short-term contract based participatory process. A synthetic forecasting example is also used to explore the relative roles of forecast skill and reservoir storage in this framework.

Comparing, optimizing, and benchmarking quantum-control algorithms in a unifying programming framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Machnes, S.; Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Ulm, D-89069 Ulm; Sander, U.

2011-08-15

For paving the way to novel applications in quantum simulation, computation, and technology, increasingly large quantum systems have to be steered with high precision. It is a typical task amenable to numerical optimal control to turn the time course of pulses, i.e., piecewise constant control amplitudes, iteratively into an optimized shape. Here, we present a comparative study of optimal-control algorithms for a wide range of finite-dimensional applications. We focus on the most commonly used algorithms: GRAPE methods which update all controls concurrently, and Krotov-type methods which do so sequentially. Guidelines for their use are given and open research questions aremore » pointed out. Moreover, we introduce a unifying algorithmic framework, DYNAMO (dynamic optimization platform), designed to provide the quantum-technology community with a convenient matlab-based tool set for optimal control. In addition, it gives researchers in optimal-control techniques a framework for benchmarking and comparing newly proposed algorithms with the state of the art. It allows a mix-and-match approach with various types of gradients, update and step-size methods as well as subspace choices. Open-source code including examples is made available at http://qlib.info.« less

Neuromorphic log-domain silicon synapse circuits obey bernoulli dynamics: a unifying tutorial analysis

PubMed Central

Papadimitriou, Konstantinos I.; Liu, Shih-Chii; Indiveri, Giacomo; Drakakis, Emmanuel M.

2014-01-01

The field of neuromorphic silicon synapse circuits is revisited and a parsimonious mathematical framework able to describe the dynamics of this class of log-domain circuits in the aggregate and in a systematic manner is proposed. Starting from the Bernoulli Cell Formalism (BCF), originally formulated for the modular synthesis and analysis of externally linear, time-invariant logarithmic filters, and by means of the identification of new types of Bernoulli Cell (BC) operators presented here, a generalized formalism (GBCF) is established. The expanded formalism covers two new possible and practical combinations of a MOS transistor (MOST) and a linear capacitor. The corresponding mathematical relations codifying each case are presented and discussed through the tutorial treatment of three well-known transistor-level examples of log-domain neuromorphic silicon synapses. The proposed mathematical tool unifies past analysis approaches of the same circuits under a common theoretical framework. The speed advantage of the proposed mathematical framework as an analysis tool is also demonstrated by a compelling comparative circuit analysis example of high order, where the GBCF and another well-known log-domain circuit analysis method are used for the determination of the input-output transfer function of the high (4th) order topology. PMID:25653579

Fully Associative, Nonisothermal, Potential-Based Unified Viscoplastic Model for Titanium-Based Matrices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

A number of titanium matrix composite (TMC) systems are currently being investigated for high-temperature air frame and propulsion system applications. As a result, numerous computational methodologies for predicting both deformation and life for this class of materials are under development. An integral part of these methodologies is an accurate and computationally efficient constitutive model for the metallic matrix constituent. Furthermore, because these systems are designed to operate at elevated temperatures, the required constitutive models must account for both time-dependent and time-independent deformations. To accomplish this, the NASA Lewis Research Center is employing a recently developed, complete, potential-based framework. This framework, which utilizes internal state variables, was put forth for the derivation of reversible and irreversible constitutive equations. The framework, and consequently the resulting constitutive model, is termed complete because the existence of the total (integrated) form of the Gibbs complementary free energy and complementary dissipation potentials are assumed a priori. The specific forms selected here for both the Gibbs and complementary dissipation potentials result in a fully associative, multiaxial, nonisothermal, unified viscoplastic model with nonlinear kinematic hardening. This model constitutes one of many models in the Generalized Viscoplasticity with Potential Structure (GVIPS) class of inelastic constitutive equations.

Neuromorphic log-domain silicon synapse circuits obey bernoulli dynamics: a unifying tutorial analysis.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Konstantinos I; Liu, Shih-Chii; Indiveri, Giacomo; Drakakis, Emmanuel M

2014-01-01

The field of neuromorphic silicon synapse circuits is revisited and a parsimonious mathematical framework able to describe the dynamics of this class of log-domain circuits in the aggregate and in a systematic manner is proposed. Starting from the Bernoulli Cell Formalism (BCF), originally formulated for the modular synthesis and analysis of externally linear, time-invariant logarithmic filters, and by means of the identification of new types of Bernoulli Cell (BC) operators presented here, a generalized formalism (GBCF) is established. The expanded formalism covers two new possible and practical combinations of a MOS transistor (MOST) and a linear capacitor. The corresponding mathematical relations codifying each case are presented and discussed through the tutorial treatment of three well-known transistor-level examples of log-domain neuromorphic silicon synapses. The proposed mathematical tool unifies past analysis approaches of the same circuits under a common theoretical framework. The speed advantage of the proposed mathematical framework as an analysis tool is also demonstrated by a compelling comparative circuit analysis example of high order, where the GBCF and another well-known log-domain circuit analysis method are used for the determination of the input-output transfer function of the high (4(th)) order topology.

Classical Markov Chains: A Unifying Framework for Understanding Avian Reproductive Success

EPA Science Inventory

Traditional methods for monitoring and analysis of avian nesting success have several important shortcomings, including 1) inability to handle multiple classes of nest failure, and 2) inability to provide estimates of annual reproductive success (because birds can, and typically ...

Do changes in connectivity explain desertification?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Desertification, broad-scale land degradation in drylands, is a major environmental hazard facing inhabitants of the world’s deserts as well as an important component of global change. There is no unifying framework that simply and effectively explains different forms of desertification. Here we arg...

Statistical Knowledge and Learning in Phonology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunbar, Ewan Michael

2013-01-01

This dissertation deals with the theory of the phonetic component of grammar in a formal probabilistic inference framework: (1) it has been recognized since the beginning of generative phonology that some language-specific phonetic implementation is actually context-dependent, and thus it can be said that there are gradient "phonetic…

A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVALUATION OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

EPA Science Inventory

A computational framework is presented for analyzing the uncertainty in model estimates of water quality benefits of best management practices (BMPs) in two small (<10 km²) watersheds in Indiana. The analysis specifically recognizes the significance of the difference b...

Theory Learning as Stochastic Search in the Language of Thought

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ullman, Tomer D.; Goodman, Noah D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2012-01-01

We present an algorithmic model for the development of children's intuitive theories within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, where theories are described as sets of logical laws generated by a probabilistic context-free grammar. We contrast our approach with connectionist and other emergentist approaches to modeling cognitive development. While…

Teaching Measurement and Uncertainty the GUM Way

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buffler, Andy; Allie, Saalih; Lubben, Fred

2008-01-01

This paper describes a course aimed at developing understanding of measurement and uncertainty in the introductory physics laboratory. The course materials, in the form of a student workbook, are based on the probabilistic framework for measurement as recommended by the International Organization for Standardization in their publication "Guide to…

Sampling Using a Fixed Number of Trees Per Plot

Treesearch

Hans T. Schreuder

2004-01-01

The fixed number of trees sample design proposed by Jonsson and others (1992) may be dangerous in applications if a probabilistic framework of sampling is desired. The procedure can be seriously biased. Examples are given here.Publication Web Site:http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_rn017.html

Mastodon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Bolisetti, Chandrakanth

MASTODON has the capability to model stochastic nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) in a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework. The NLSSI simulations include structural dynamics, time integration, dynamic porous media flow, nonlinear hysteretic soil constitutive models, geometric nonlinearities (gapping, sliding, and uplift). MASTODON is also the MOOSE based master application for dynamic PRA of external hazards.

A unified framework for unraveling the functional interaction structure of a biomolecular network based on stimulus-response experimental data.

PubMed

Cho, Kwang-Hyun; Choo, Sang-Mok; Wellstead, Peter; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2005-08-15

We propose a unified framework for the identification of functional interaction structures of biomolecular networks in a way that leads to a new experimental design procedure. In developing our approach, we have built upon previous work. Thus we begin by pointing out some of the restrictions associated with existing structure identification methods and point out how these restrictions may be eased. In particular, existing methods use specific forms of experimental algebraic equations with which to identify the functional interaction structure of a biomolecular network. In our work, we employ an extended form of these experimental algebraic equations which, while retaining their merits, also overcome some of their disadvantages. Experimental data are required in order to estimate the coefficients of the experimental algebraic equation set associated with the structure identification task. However, experimentalists are rarely provided with guidance on which parameters to perturb, and to what extent, to perturb them. When a model of network dynamics is required then there is also the vexed question of sample rate and sample time selection to be resolved. Supplying some answers to these questions is the main motivation of this paper. The approach is based on stationary and/or temporal data obtained from parameter perturbations, and unifies the previous approaches of Kholodenko et al. (PNAS 99 (2002) 12841-12846) and Sontag et al. (Bioinformatics 20 (2004) 1877-1886). By way of demonstration, we apply our unified approach to a network model which cannot be properly identified by existing methods. Finally, we propose an experiment design methodology, which is not limited by the amount of parameter perturbations, and illustrate its use with an in numero example.

ATP3 Unified Field Study Data

DOE Data Explorer

Wolfrum, Ed (ORCID:0000000273618931); Knoshug, Eric (ORCID:000000025709914X); Laurens, Lieve (ORCID:0000000349303267); Harmon, Valerie; Dempster, Thomas (ORCID:000000029550488X); McGowan, John (ORCID:0000000266920518); Rosov, Theresa; Cardello, David; Arrowsmith, Sarah; Kempkes, Sarah; Bautista, Maria; Lundquist, Tryg; Crowe, Brandon; Murawsky, Garrett; Nicolai, Eric; Rowe, Egan; Knurek, Emily; Javar, Reyna; Saracco Alvarez, Marcela; Schlosser, Steve; Riddle, Mary; Withstandley, Chris; Chen, Yongsheng; Van Ginkel, Steven; Igou, Thomas; Xu, Chunyan; Hu, Zixuan

2017-10-20

ATP3 Unified Field Study Data The Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) was established with the goal of investigating open pond algae cultivation across different geographic, climatic, seasonal, and operational conditions while setting the benchmark for quality data collection, analysis, and dissemination. Identical algae cultivation systems and data analysis methodologies were established at testbed sites across the continental United States and Hawaii. Within this framework, the Unified Field Studies (UFS) were designed to characterize the cultivation of different algal strains during all 4 seasons across this testbed network. The dataset presented here is the complete, curated, climatic, cultivation, harvest, and biomass composition data for each season at each site. These data enable others to do in-depth cultivation, harvest, techno-economic, life cycle, resource, and predictive growth modeling analysis, as well as develop crop protection strategies for the nascent algae industry. NREL Sub award Number: DE-AC36-08-GO28308

A Unified Methodology for Computing Accurate Quaternion Color Moments and Moment Invariants.

PubMed

Karakasis, Evangelos G; Papakostas, George A; Koulouriotis, Dimitrios E; Tourassis, Vassilios D

2014-02-01

In this paper, a general framework for computing accurate quaternion color moments and their corresponding invariants is proposed. The proposed unified scheme arose by studying the characteristics of different orthogonal polynomials. These polynomials are used as kernels in order to form moments, the invariants of which can easily be derived. The resulted scheme permits the usage of any polynomial-like kernel in a unified and consistent way. The resulted moments and moment invariants demonstrate robustness to noisy conditions and high discriminative power. Additionally, in the case of continuous moments, accurate computations take place to avoid approximation errors. Based on this general methodology, the quaternion Tchebichef, Krawtchouk, Dual Hahn, Legendre, orthogonal Fourier-Mellin, pseudo Zernike and Zernike color moments, and their corresponding invariants are introduced. A selected paradigm presents the reconstruction capability of each moment family, whereas proper classification scenarios evaluate the performance of color moment invariants.

A unified universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codello, Alessandro; Jain, Rajeev Kumar

2018-05-01

We present a unified evolution of the universe from very early times until the present epoch by including both the leading local correction R^2 and the leading non-local term R1/\\square ^2R to the classical gravitational action. We find that the inflationary phase driven by R^2 term gracefully exits in a transitory regime characterized by coherent oscillations of the Hubble parameter. The universe then naturally enters into a radiation dominated epoch followed by a matter dominated era. At sufficiently late times after radiation-matter equality, the non-local term starts to dominate inducing an accelerated expansion of the universe at the present epoch. We further exhibit the fact that both the leading local and non-local terms can be obtained within the covariant effective field theory of gravity. This scenario thus provides a unified picture of inflation and dark energy in a single framework by means of a purely gravitational action without the usual need of a scalar field.

Multilayer network of language: A unified framework for structural analysis of linguistic subsystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinčić-Ipšić, Sanda; Margan, Domagoj; Meštrović, Ana

2016-09-01

Recently, the focus of complex networks' research has shifted from the analysis of isolated properties of a system toward a more realistic modeling of multiple phenomena - multilayer networks. Motivated by the prosperity of multilayer approach in social, transport or trade systems, we introduce the multilayer networks for language. The multilayer network of language is a unified framework for modeling linguistic subsystems and their structural properties enabling the exploration of their mutual interactions. Various aspects of natural language systems can be represented as complex networks, whose vertices depict linguistic units, while links model their relations. The multilayer network of language is defined by three aspects: the network construction principle, the linguistic subsystem and the language of interest. More precisely, we construct a word-level (syntax and co-occurrence) and a subword-level (syllables and graphemes) network layers, from four variations of original text (in the modeled language). The analysis and comparison of layers at the word and subword-levels are employed in order to determine the mechanism of the structural influences between linguistic units and subsystems. The obtained results suggest that there are substantial differences between the networks' structures of different language subsystems, which are hidden during the exploration of an isolated layer. The word-level layers share structural properties regardless of the language (e.g. Croatian or English), while the syllabic subword-level expresses more language dependent structural properties. The preserved weighted overlap quantifies the similarity of word-level layers in weighted and directed networks. Moreover, the analysis of motifs reveals a close topological structure of the syntactic and syllabic layers for both languages. The findings corroborate that the multilayer network framework is a powerful, consistent and systematic approach to model several linguistic subsystems simultaneously and hence to provide a more unified view on language.

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-offs on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks. Part III: Synthetic Gene Networks in Synthetic Biology

PubMed Central

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties that are observed in biological systems at many different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be large enough to confer: intrinsic robustness for tolerating intrinsic parameter fluctuations; genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations; and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. Network robustness is needed so phenotype stability of biological network can be maintained, guaranteeing phenotype robustness. Synthetic biology is foreseen to have important applications in biotechnology and medicine; it is expected to contribute significantly to a better understanding of functioning of complex biological systems. This paper presents a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation for synthetic gene networks in synthetic biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, we found that the phenotype robustness criterion for synthetic gene networks is the following: if intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness, then the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in synthetic biology can also be investigated through corresponding phenotype robustness criteria from the systematic point of view. Finally, a robust synthetic design that involves network evolution algorithms with desired behavior under intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances, is also proposed, together with a simulation example. PMID:23515190

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Trade-offs on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks. Part III: Synthetic Gene Networks in Synthetic Biology.

PubMed

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

Robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are ubiquitous systematic properties that are observed in biological systems at many different levels. The underlying principles for robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation are universal to both complex biological systems and sophisticated engineering systems. In many biological networks, network robustness should be large enough to confer: intrinsic robustness for tolerating intrinsic parameter fluctuations; genetic robustness for buffering genetic variations; and environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances. Network robustness is needed so phenotype stability of biological network can be maintained, guaranteeing phenotype robustness. Synthetic biology is foreseen to have important applications in biotechnology and medicine; it is expected to contribute significantly to a better understanding of functioning of complex biological systems. This paper presents a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance attenuation for synthetic gene networks in synthetic biology. Further, from the unifying mathematical framework, we found that the phenotype robustness criterion for synthetic gene networks is the following: if intrinsic robustness + genetic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness, then the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances. Therefore, the trade-offs between intrinsic robustness, genetic robustness, environmental robustness, and network robustness in synthetic biology can also be investigated through corresponding phenotype robustness criteria from the systematic point of view. Finally, a robust synthetic design that involves network evolution algorithms with desired behavior under intrinsic parameter fluctuations, genetic variations, and environmental disturbances, is also proposed, together with a simulation example.

Simultaneous-Fault Diagnosis of Gearboxes Using Probabilistic Committee Machine

PubMed Central

Zhong, Jian-Hua; Wong, Pak Kin; Yang, Zhi-Xin

2016-01-01

This study combines signal de-noising, feature extraction, two pairwise-coupled relevance vector machines (PCRVMs) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) for parameter optimization to form an intelligent diagnostic framework for gearbox fault detection. Firstly, the noises of sensor signals are de-noised by using the wavelet threshold method to lower the noise level. Then, the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and energy pattern calculation are applied to extract the fault features from de-noised signals. After that, an eleven-dimension vector, which consists of the energies of nine intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), maximum value of HHT marginal spectrum and its corresponding frequency component, is obtained to represent the features of each gearbox fault. The two PCRVMs serve as two different fault detection committee members, and they are trained by using vibration and sound signals, respectively. The individual diagnostic result from each committee member is then combined by applying a new probabilistic ensemble method, which can improve the overall diagnostic accuracy and increase the number of detectable faults as compared to individual classifiers acting alone. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is experimentally verified by using test cases. The experimental results show the proposed framework is superior to existing single classifiers in terms of diagnostic accuracies for both single- and simultaneous-faults in the gearbox. PMID:26848665

A probabilistic framework for the cover effect in bedrock erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turowski, Jens M.; Hodge, Rebecca

2017-06-01

The cover effect in fluvial bedrock erosion is a major control on bedrock channel morphology and long-term channel dynamics. Here, we suggest a probabilistic framework for the description of the cover effect that can be applied to field, laboratory, and modelling data and thus allows the comparison of results from different sources. The framework describes the formation of sediment cover as a function of the probability of sediment being deposited on already alluviated areas of the bed. We define benchmark cases and suggest physical interpretations of deviations from these benchmarks. Furthermore, we develop a reach-scale model for sediment transfer in a bedrock channel and use it to clarify the relations between the sediment mass residing on the bed, the exposed bedrock fraction, and the transport stage. We derive system timescales and investigate cover response to cyclic perturbations. The model predicts that bedrock channels can achieve grade in steady state by adjusting bed cover. Thus, bedrock channels have at least two characteristic timescales of response. Over short timescales, the degree of bed cover is adjusted such that the supplied sediment load can just be transported, while over long timescales, channel morphology evolves such that the bedrock incision rate matches the tectonic uplift or base-level lowering rate.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

Simultaneous-Fault Diagnosis of Gearboxes Using Probabilistic Committee Machine.

PubMed

Zhong, Jian-Hua; Wong, Pak Kin; Yang, Zhi-Xin

2016-02-02

This study combines signal de-noising, feature extraction, two pairwise-coupled relevance vector machines (PCRVMs) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) for parameter optimization to form an intelligent diagnostic framework for gearbox fault detection. Firstly, the noises of sensor signals are de-noised by using the wavelet threshold method to lower the noise level. Then, the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and energy pattern calculation are applied to extract the fault features from de-noised signals. After that, an eleven-dimension vector, which consists of the energies of nine intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), maximum value of HHT marginal spectrum and its corresponding frequency component, is obtained to represent the features of each gearbox fault. The two PCRVMs serve as two different fault detection committee members, and they are trained by using vibration and sound signals, respectively. The individual diagnostic result from each committee member is then combined by applying a new probabilistic ensemble method, which can improve the overall diagnostic accuracy and increase the number of detectable faults as compared to individual classifiers acting alone. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is experimentally verified by using test cases. The experimental results show the proposed framework is superior to existing single classifiers in terms of diagnostic accuracies for both single- and simultaneous-faults in the gearbox.

Phase 1: Definition of intercity transportation comparison framework. Volume 1: Summary. [operations research of passenger and freight transporatation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A unified framework for comparing intercity passenger and freight transportation systems is presented. Composite measures for cost, service/demand, energy, and environmental impact were determined. A set of 14 basic measures were articulated to form the foundation for computing the composite measures. A parameter dependency diagram, constructed to explicitly interrelate the composite and basic measures is discussed. Ground rules and methodology for developing the values of the basic measures are provided and the use of the framework with existing cost and service data is illustrated for various freight systems.

Representations, approximations, and limitations within a computational framework for cognitive science. Comment on “Toward a computational framework for cognitive biology: Unifying approaches from cognitive neuroscience and comparative cognition” by W. Tecumseh Fitch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perfors, Amy

2014-09-01

There is much to approve of in this provocative and interesting paper. I strongly agree in many parts, especially the point that dichotomies like nature/nurture are actively detrimental to the field. I also appreciate the idea that cognitive scientists should take the "biological wetware" of the cell (rather than the network) more seriously.

Chimaera simulation of complex states of flowing matter.

PubMed

Succi, S

2016-11-13

We discuss a unified mesoscale framework (chimaera) for the simulation of complex states of flowing matter across scales of motion. The chimaera framework can deal with each of the three macro-meso-micro levels through suitable 'mutations' of the basic mesoscale formulation. The idea is illustrated through selected simulations of complex micro- and nanoscale flows.This article is part of the themed issue 'Multiscale modelling at the physics-chemistry-biology interface'. © 2016 The Author(s).

A unified framework for gesture recognition and spatiotemporal gesture segmentation.

PubMed

Alon, Jonathan; Athitsos, Vassilis; Yuan, Quan; Sclaroff, Stan

2009-09-01

Within the context of hand gesture recognition, spatiotemporal gesture segmentation is the task of determining, in a video sequence, where the gesturing hand is located and when the gesture starts and ends. Existing gesture recognition methods typically assume either known spatial segmentation or known temporal segmentation, or both. This paper introduces a unified framework for simultaneously performing spatial segmentation, temporal segmentation, and recognition. In the proposed framework, information flows both bottom-up and top-down. A gesture can be recognized even when the hand location is highly ambiguous and when information about when the gesture begins and ends is unavailable. Thus, the method can be applied to continuous image streams where gestures are performed in front of moving, cluttered backgrounds. The proposed method consists of three novel contributions: a spatiotemporal matching algorithm that can accommodate multiple candidate hand detections in every frame, a classifier-based pruning framework that enables accurate and early rejection of poor matches to gesture models, and a subgesture reasoning algorithm that learns which gesture models can falsely match parts of other longer gestures. The performance of the approach is evaluated on two challenging applications: recognition of hand-signed digits gestured by users wearing short-sleeved shirts, in front of a cluttered background, and retrieval of occurrences of signs of interest in a video database containing continuous, unsegmented signing in American Sign Language (ASL).

H-SLAM: Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter SLAM Using Hilbert Maps.

PubMed

Vallicrosa, Guillem; Ridao, Pere

2018-05-01

Occupancy Grid maps provide a probabilistic representation of space which is important for a variety of robotic applications like path planning and autonomous manipulation. In this paper, a SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) framework capable of obtaining this representation online is presented. The H-SLAM (Hilbert Maps SLAM) is based on Hilbert Map representation and uses a Particle Filter to represent the robot state. Hilbert Maps offer a continuous probabilistic representation with a small memory footprint. We present a series of experimental results carried both in simulation and with real AUVs (Autonomous Underwater Vehicles). These results demonstrate that our approach is able to represent the environment more consistently while capable of running online.

Generalized Probabilistic Description of Noninteracting Identical Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karczewski, Marcin; Markiewicz, Marcin; Kaszlikowski, Dagomir; Kurzyński, Paweł

2018-02-01

We investigate an operational description of identical noninteracting particles in multiports. In particular, we look for physically motivated restrictions that explain their bunching probabilities. We focus on a symmetric 3-port in which a triple of superquantum particles admitted by our generalized probabilistic framework would bunch with a probability of 3/4 . The bosonic bound of 2/3 can then be restored by imposing the additional requirement of product evolution of certain input states. These states are characterized by the fact that, much like product states, their entropy equals the sum of entropies of their one-particle substates. This principle is, however, not enough to exclude the possibility of superquantum particles in higher-order multiports.

Probabilistic evaluation of n traces with no putative source: A likelihood ratio based approach in an investigative framework.

PubMed

De March, I; Sironi, E; Taroni, F

2016-09-01

Analysis of marks recovered from different crime scenes can be useful to detect a linkage between criminal cases, even though a putative source for the recovered traces is not available. This particular circumstance is often encountered in the early stage of investigations and thus, the evaluation of evidence association may provide useful information for the investigators. This association is evaluated here from a probabilistic point of view: a likelihood ratio based approach is suggested in order to quantify the strength of the evidence of trace association in the light of two mutually exclusive propositions, namely that the n traces come from a common source or from an unspecified number of sources. To deal with this kind of problem, probabilistic graphical models are used, in form of Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks, allowing users to intuitively handle with uncertainty related to the inferential problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inference in the brain: Statistics flowing in redundant population codes

PubMed Central

Pitkow, Xaq; Angelaki, Dora E

2017-01-01

It is widely believed that the brain performs approximate probabilistic inference to estimate causal variables in the world from ambiguous sensory data. To understand these computations, we need to analyze how information is represented and transformed by the actions of nonlinear recurrent neural networks. We propose that these probabilistic computations function by a message-passing algorithm operating at the level of redundant neural populations. To explain this framework, we review its underlying concepts, including graphical models, sufficient statistics, and message-passing, and then describe how these concepts could be implemented by recurrently connected probabilistic population codes. The relevant information flow in these networks will be most interpretable at the population level, particularly for redundant neural codes. We therefore outline a general approach to identify the essential features of a neural message-passing algorithm. Finally, we argue that to reveal the most important aspects of these neural computations, we must study large-scale activity patterns during moderately complex, naturalistic behaviors. PMID:28595050

Probabilistic segmentation and intensity estimation for microarray images.

PubMed

Gottardo, Raphael; Besag, Julian; Stephens, Matthew; Murua, Alejandro

2006-01-01

We describe a probabilistic approach to simultaneous image segmentation and intensity estimation for complementary DNA microarray experiments. The approach overcomes several limitations of existing methods. In particular, it (a) uses a flexible Markov random field approach to segmentation that allows for a wider range of spot shapes than existing methods, including relatively common 'doughnut-shaped' spots; (b) models the image directly as background plus hybridization intensity, and estimates the two quantities simultaneously, avoiding the common logical error that estimates of foreground may be less than those of the corresponding background if the two are estimated separately; and (c) uses a probabilistic modeling approach to simultaneously perform segmentation and intensity estimation, and to compute spot quality measures. We describe two approaches to parameter estimation: a fast algorithm, based on the expectation-maximization and the iterated conditional modes algorithms, and a fully Bayesian framework. These approaches produce comparable results, and both appear to offer some advantages over other methods. We use an HIV experiment to compare our approach to two commercial software products: Spot and Arrayvision.

Discriminative parameter estimation for random walks segmentation.

PubMed

Baudin, Pierre-Yves; Goodman, Danny; Kumrnar, Puneet; Azzabou, Noura; Carlier, Pierre G; Paragios, Nikos; Kumar, M Pawan

2013-01-01

The Random Walks (RW) algorithm is one of the most efficient and easy-to-use probabilistic segmentation methods. By combining contrast terms with prior terms, it provides accurate segmentations of medical images in a fully automated manner. However, one of the main drawbacks of using the RW algorithm is that its parameters have to be hand-tuned. we propose a novel discriminative learning framework that estimates the parameters using a training dataset. The main challenge we face is that the training samples are not fully supervised. Specifically, they provide a hard segmentation of the images, instead of a probabilistic segmentation. We overcome this challenge by treating the optimal probabilistic segmentation that is compatible with the given hard segmentation as a latent variable. This allows us to employ the latent support vector machine formulation for parameter estimation. We show that our approach significantly outperforms the baseline methods on a challenging dataset consisting of real clinical 3D MRI volumes of skeletal muscles.

Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination.

PubMed

Bolster, D T; Tartakovsky, D M

2008-10-01

We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of building contamination. PRA provides a powerful tool for the rigorous quantification of risk in contamination of building spaces. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a system (e.g. ventilation system components, potential sources of contaminants, remediation methods) and proceeds by using available information and statistical inference to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g. building contamination). A sensitivity study of PRAs can identify features and potential problems that need to be addressed with the most urgency. Often PRAs are amenable to approximations, which can significantly simplify the approach. All these features of PRA are presented in this paper via a simple illustrative example, which can be built upon in further studies. The tool presented here can be used to design and maintain adequate ventilation systems to minimize exposure of occupants to contaminants.

Effects of shipping on marine acoustic habitats in Canadian Arctic estimated via probabilistic modeling and mapping.

PubMed

Aulanier, Florian; Simard, Yvan; Roy, Nathalie; Gervaise, Cédric; Bandet, Marion

2017-12-15

Canadian Arctic and Subarctic regions experience a rapid decrease of sea ice accompanied with increasing shipping traffic. The resulting time-space changes in shipping noise are studied for four key regions of this pristine environment, for 2013 traffic conditions and a hypothetical tenfold traffic increase. A probabilistic modeling and mapping framework, called Ramdam, which integrates the intrinsic variability and uncertainties of shipping noise and its effects on marine habitats, is developed and applied. A substantial transformation of soundscapes is observed in areas where shipping noise changes from present occasional-transient contributor to a dominant noise source. Examination of impacts on low-frequency mammals within ecologically and biologically significant areas reveals that shipping noise has the potential to trigger behavioral responses and masking in the future, although no risk of temporary or permanent hearing threshold shifts is noted. Such probabilistic modeling and mapping is strategic in marine spatial planning of this emerging noise issues. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data Centric Development Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khoury, Fadi E.

2012-01-01

Data centric applications, an important effort of software development in large organizations, have been mostly adopting a software methodology, such as a waterfall or Rational Unified Process, as the framework for its development. These methodologies could work on structural, procedural, or object oriented based applications, but fails to capture…

The semiotics of medical image Segmentation.

PubMed

Baxter, John S H; Gibson, Eli; Eagleson, Roy; Peters, Terry M

2018-02-01

As the interaction between clinicians and computational processes increases in complexity, more nuanced mechanisms are required to describe how their communication is mediated. Medical image segmentation in particular affords a large number of distinct loci for interaction which can act on a deep, knowledge-driven level which complicates the naive interpretation of the computer as a symbol processing machine. Using the perspective of the computer as dialogue partner, we can motivate the semiotic understanding of medical image segmentation. Taking advantage of Peircean semiotic traditions and new philosophical inquiry into the structure and quality of metaphors, we can construct a unified framework for the interpretation of medical image segmentation as a sign exchange in which each sign acts as an interface metaphor. This allows for a notion of finite semiosis, described through a schematic medium, that can rigorously describe how clinicians and computers interpret the signs mediating their interaction. Altogether, this framework provides a unified approach to the understanding and development of medical image segmentation interfaces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complex networks as a unified framework for descriptive analysis and predictive modeling in climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Chawla, Nitesh; Ganguly, Auroop R

The analysis of climate data has relied heavily on hypothesis-driven statistical methods, while projections of future climate are based primarily on physics-based computational models. However, in recent years a wealth of new datasets has become available. Therefore, we take a more data-centric approach and propose a unified framework for studying climate, with an aim towards characterizing observed phenomena as well as discovering new knowledge in the climate domain. Specifically, we posit that complex networks are well-suited for both descriptive analysis and predictive modeling tasks. We show that the structural properties of climate networks have useful interpretation within the domain. Further,more » we extract clusters from these networks and demonstrate their predictive power as climate indices. Our experimental results establish that the network clusters are statistically significantly better predictors than clusters derived using a more traditional clustering approach. Using complex networks as data representation thus enables the unique opportunity for descriptive and predictive modeling to inform each other.« less

The thermodynamics of dense granular flow and jamming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Shih Yu

The scope of the thesis is to propose, based on experimental evidence and theoretical validation, a quantifiable connection between systems that exhibit the jamming phenomenon. When jammed, some materials that flow are able to resist deformation so that they appear solid-like on the laboratory scale. But unlike ordinary fusion, which has a critically defined criterion in pressure and temperature, jamming occurs under a wide range of conditions. These condition have been rigorously investigated but at the moment, no self-consistent framework can apply to grains, foam and colloids that may have suddenly ceased to flow. To quantify the jamming behavior, a constitutive model of dense granular flows is deduced from shear-flow experiments. The empirical equations are then generalized, via a thermodynamic approach, into an equation-of-state for jamming. Notably, the unifying theory also predicts the experimental data on the behavior of molecular glassy liquids. This analogy paves a crucial road map for a unifying theoretical framework in condensed matter, for example, ranging from sand to fire retardants to toothpaste.

Multi-View Multi-Instance Learning Based on Joint Sparse Representation and Multi-View Dictionary Learning.

PubMed

Li, Bing; Yuan, Chunfeng; Xiong, Weihua; Hu, Weiming; Peng, Houwen; Ding, Xinmiao; Maybank, Steve

2017-12-01

In multi-instance learning (MIL), the relations among instances in a bag convey important contextual information in many applications. Previous studies on MIL either ignore such relations or simply model them with a fixed graph structure so that the overall performance inevitably degrades in complex environments. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel multi-view multi-instance learning algorithm (MIL) that combines multiple context structures in a bag into a unified framework. The novel aspects are: (i) we propose a sparse -graph model that can generate different graphs with different parameters to represent various context relations in a bag, (ii) we propose a multi-view joint sparse representation that integrates these graphs into a unified framework for bag classification, and (iii) we propose a multi-view dictionary learning algorithm to obtain a multi-view graph dictionary that considers cues from all views simultaneously to improve the discrimination of the MIL. Experiments and analyses in many practical applications prove the effectiveness of the M IL.

A Unifying Mathematical Framework for Genetic Robustness, Environmental Robustness, Network Robustness and their Tradeoff on Phenotype Robustness in Biological Networks Part II: Ecological Networks

PubMed Central

Chen, Bor-Sen; Lin, Ying-Po

2013-01-01

In ecological networks, network robustness should be large enough to confer intrinsic robustness for tolerating intrinsic parameter fluctuations, as well as environmental robustness for resisting environmental disturbances, so that the phenotype stability of ecological networks can be maintained, thus guaranteeing phenotype robustness. However, it is difficult to analyze the network robustness of ecological systems because they are complex nonlinear partial differential stochastic systems. This paper develops a unifying mathematical framework for investigating the principles of both robust stabilization and environmental disturbance sensitivity in ecological networks. We found that the phenotype robustness criterion for ecological networks is that if intrinsic robustness + environmental robustness ≦ network robustness, then the phenotype robustness can be maintained in spite of intrinsic parameter fluctuations and environmental disturbances. These results in robust ecological networks are similar to that in robust gene regulatory networks and evolutionary networks even they have different spatial-time scales. PMID:23515112

Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

2010-01-01

Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

A unifying retinex model based on non-local differential operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosso, Dominique; Tran, Giang; Osher, Stanley

2013-02-01

In this paper, we present a unifying framework for retinex that is able to reproduce many of the existing retinex implementations within a single model. The fundamental assumption, as shared with many retinex models, is that the observed image is a multiplication between the illumination and the true underlying reflectance of the object. Starting from Morel's 2010 PDE model for retinex, where illumination is supposed to vary smoothly and where the reflectance is thus recovered from a hard-thresholded Laplacian of the observed image in a Poisson equation, we define our retinex model in similar but more general two steps. First, look for a filtered gradient that is the solution of an optimization problem consisting of two terms: The first term is a sparsity prior of the reflectance, such as the TV or H1 norm, while the second term is a quadratic fidelity prior of the reflectance gradient with respect to the observed image gradients. In a second step, since this filtered gradient almost certainly is not a consistent image gradient, we then look for a reflectance whose actual gradient comes close. Beyond unifying existing models, we are able to derive entirely novel retinex formulations by using more interesting non-local versions for the sparsity and fidelity prior. Hence we define within a single framework new retinex instances particularly suited for texture-preserving shadow removal, cartoon-texture decomposition, color and hyperspectral image enhancement.

Unifying a fragmented effort: a qualitative framework for improving international surgical teaching collaborations.

PubMed

Fallah, Parisa Nicole; Bernstein, Mark

2017-09-07

Access to adequate surgical care is limited globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To address this issue, surgeons are becoming increasingly involved in international surgical teaching collaborations (ISTCs), which include educational partnerships between surgical teams in high-income countries and those in LMICs. The purpose of this study is to determine a framework for unifying, systematizing, and improving the quality of ISTCs so that they can better address the global surgical need. A convenience sample of 68 surgeons, anesthesiologists, physicians, residents, nurses, academics, and administrators from the U.S., Canada, and Norway was used for the study. Participants all had some involvement in ISTCs and came from multiple specialties and institutions. Qualitative methodology was used, and participants were interviewed using a pre-determined set of open-ended questions. Data was gathered over two months either in-person, over the phone, or on Skype. Data was evaluated using thematic content analysis. To organize and systematize ISTCs, participants reported a need for a centralized/systematized process with designated leaders, a universal data bank of current efforts/progress, communication amongst involved parties, full-time administrative staff, dedicated funds, a scholarly approach, increased use of technology, and more research on needs and outcomes. By taking steps towards unifying and systematizing ISTCs, the quality of ISTCs can be improved. This could lead to an advancement in efforts to increase access to surgical care worldwide.

A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

DOE PAGES

Haines, Seth S.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Balistrieri, Laurie; ...

2013-05-15

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sagemore » grouse leks and pinon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. In conclusion, the framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.« less

A framework for quantitative assessment of impacts related to energy and mineral resource development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haines, Seth S.; Diffendorfer, James; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Berger, Byron R.; Cook, Troy A.; Gautier, Donald L.; Gallegos, Tanya J.; Gerritsen, Margot; Graffy, Elisabeth; Hawkins, Sarah; Johnson, Kathleen; Macknick, Jordan; McMahon, Peter; Modde, Tim; Pierce, Brenda; Schuenemeyer, John H.; Semmens, Darius; Simon, Benjamin; Taylor, Jason; Walton-Day, Katherine

2013-01-01

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

Probabilistic characterization of wind turbine blades via aeroelasticity and spinning finite element formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velazquez, Antonio; Swartz, R. Andrew

2012-04-01

Wind energy is an increasingly important component of this nation's renewable energy portfolio, however safe and economical wind turbine operation is a critical need to ensure continued adoption. Safe operation of wind turbine structures requires not only information regarding their condition, but their operational environment. Given the difficulty inherent in SHM processes for wind turbines (damage detection, location, and characterization), some uncertainty in conditional assessment is expected. Furthermore, given the stochastic nature of the loading on turbine structures, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize their risk of failure at a given time. Such information will be invaluable to turbine controllers, allowing them to operate the structures within acceptable risk profiles. This study explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the turbine blade structures. A framework is presented to develop an analytical estimation of the loading environment (including loading effects) based on the dynamic behavior of the blades. This is influenced by behaviors including along and across-wind aero-elastic effects, wind shear gradient, tower shadow effects, and centrifugal stiffening effects. The proposed solution includes methods that are based on modal decomposition of the blades and require frequent updates to the estimated modal properties to account for the time-varying nature of the turbine and its environment. The estimated demand statistics are compared to a code-based resistance curve to determine a probabilistic estimate of the risk of blade failure given the loading environment.

Hilltop supernatural inflation and SUSY unified models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohri, Kazunori; Lim, C. S.; Lin, Chia-Min; Mimura, Yukihiro

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider high scale (100TeV) supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking and realize the idea of hilltop supernatural inflation in concrete particle physics models based on flipped-SU(5)and Pati-Salam models in the framework of supersymmetric grand unified theories (SUSY GUTs). The inflaton can be a flat direction including right-handed sneutrino and the waterfall field is a GUT Higgs. The spectral index is ns = 0.96 which fits very well with recent data by PLANCK satellite. There is no both thermal and non-thermal gravitino problems. Non-thermal leptogenesis can be resulted from the decay of right-handed sneutrino which plays (part of) the role of inflaton.

What do we gain with Probabilistic Flood Loss Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Vogel, K.; Merz, B.; Lüdtke, S.

2015-12-01

The reliability of flood loss models is a prerequisite for their practical usefulness. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions which are cast in a probabilistic framework. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Emotion and the prefrontal cortex: An integrative review.

PubMed

Dixon, Matthew L; Thiruchselvam, Ravi; Todd, Rebecca; Christoff, Kalina

2017-10-01

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a critical role in the generation and regulation of emotion. However, we lack an integrative framework for understanding how different emotion-related functions are organized across the entire expanse of the PFC, as prior reviews have generally focused on specific emotional processes (e.g., decision making) or specific anatomical regions (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex). Additionally, psychological theories and neuroscientific investigations have proceeded largely independently because of the lack of a common framework. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of functional neuroimaging, electrophysiological, lesion, and structural connectivity studies on the emotion-related functions of 8 subregions spanning the entire PFC. We introduce the appraisal-by-content model, which provides a new framework for integrating the diverse range of empirical findings. Within this framework, appraisal serves as a unifying principle for understanding the PFC's role in emotion, while relative content-specialization serves as a differentiating principle for understanding the role of each subregion. A synthesis of data from affective, social, and cognitive neuroscience studies suggests that different PFC subregions are preferentially involved in assigning value to specific types of inputs: exteroceptive sensations, episodic memories and imagined future events, viscero-sensory signals, viscero-motor signals, actions, others' mental states (e.g., intentions), self-related information, and ongoing emotions. We discuss the implications of this integrative framework for understanding emotion regulation, value-based decision making, emotional salience, and refining theoretical models of emotion. This framework provides a unified understanding of how emotional processes are organized across PFC subregions and generates new hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying adaptive and maladaptive emotional functioning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

2017-03-15

Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Interprofessional Care and Collaborative Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casto, R. Michael; And Others

This book provides materials for those learning about the dynamics, techniques, and potential of interprofessional collaboration in health care and human services professions. Eight case studies thread their way through most chapters to unify and illustrate the text. Part 1 addresses the theoretical framework that forms the basis for…

Mean Comparison: Manifest Variable versus Latent Variable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Bentler, Peter M.

2006-01-01

An extension of multiple correspondence analysis is proposed that takes into account cluster-level heterogeneity in respondents' preferences/choices. The method involves combining multiple correspondence analysis and k-means in a unified framework. The former is used for uncovering a low-dimensional space of multivariate categorical variables…

Unified Framework for Deriving Simultaneous Equation Algorithms for Water Distribution Networks

EPA Science Inventory

The known formulations for steady state hydraulics within looped water distribution networks are re-derived in terms of linear and non-linear transformations of the original set of partly linear and partly non-linear equations that express conservation of mass and energy. All of ...

Reconciling Time, Space and Function: A New Dorsal-Ventral Stream Model of Sentence Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina; Schlesewsky, Matthias

2013-01-01

We present a new dorsal-ventral stream framework for language comprehension which unifies basic neurobiological assumptions (Rauschecker & Scott, 2009) with a cross-linguistic neurocognitive sentence comprehension model (eADM; Bornkessel & Schlesewsky, 2006). The dissociation between (time-dependent) syntactic structure-building and…

Markov Random Fields, Stochastic Quantization and Image Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

Markov random fields based on the lattice Z2 have been extensively used in image analysis in a Bayesian framework as a-priori models for the...of Image Analysis can be given some fundamental justification then there is a remarkable connection between Probabilistic Image Analysis , Statistical Mechanics and Lattice-based Euclidean Quantum Field Theory.

Learning Additional Languages as Hierarchical Probabilistic Inference: Insights from First Language Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pajak, Bozena; Fine, Alex B.; Kleinschmidt, Dave F.; Jaeger, T. Florian

2016-01-01

We present a framework of second and additional language (L2/L"n") acquisition motivated by recent work on socio-indexical knowledge in first language (L1) processing. The distribution of linguistic categories covaries with socio-indexical variables (e.g., talker identity, gender, dialects). We summarize evidence that implicit…

Short Shrift to Long Lists: An Alternative Approach to the Development of Performance Standards for School Principals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louden, William; Wildy, Helen

1999-01-01

Describes examples of standards frameworks for principals' work operant in three countries and describes an alternative approach based on interviewing 40 Australian principals. By combining qualitative case studies with probabilistic measurement techniques, the alternative approach provides contextually rich descriptions of growth in performance…

A MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING CHILDREN'S RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHLORPYRIFOS VIA DERMAL RESIDUE CONTACT AND NON-DIETARY INGESTION

EPA Science Inventory

To help address the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, a physically-based probabilistic model (Residential Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model for Pesticides; Residential-SHEDS) has been developed to quantify and analyze dermal and non-dietary ingestion exposu...

Monitoring Human Development Goals: A Straightforward (Bayesian) Methodology for Cross-National Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abayomi, Kobi; Pizarro, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

We offer a straightforward framework for measurement of progress, across many dimensions, using cross-national social indices, which we classify as linear combinations of multivariate country level data onto a univariate score. We suggest a Bayesian approach which yields probabilistic (confidence type) intervals for the point estimates of country…

Impact of refining the assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European adult population.

PubMed

Ferrari, Pietro; Arcella, Davide; Heraud, Fanny; Cappé, Stefano; Fabiansson, Stefan

2013-01-01

Exposure assessment constitutes an important step in any risk assessment of potentially harmful substances present in food. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) first assessed dietary exposure to cadmium in Europe using a deterministic framework, resulting in mean values of exposure in the range of health-based guidance values. Since then, the characterisation of foods has been refined to better match occurrence and consumption data, and a new strategy to handle left-censoring in occurrence data was devised. A probabilistic assessment was performed and compared with deterministic estimates, using occurrence values at the European level and consumption data from 14 national dietary surveys. Mean estimates in the probabilistic assessment ranged from 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35-1.44) to 2.08 (1.99-2.23) µg kg⁻¹ bodyweight (bw) week⁻¹ across the different surveys, which were less than 10% lower than deterministic (middle bound) mean values that ranged from 1.50 to 2.20 µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹. Probabilistic 95th percentile estimates of dietary exposure ranged from 2.65 (2.57-2.72) to 4.99 (4.62-5.38) µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹, which were, with the exception of one survey, between 3% and 17% higher than middle-bound deterministic estimates. Overall, the proportion of subjects exceeding the tolerable weekly intake of 2.5 µg kg⁻¹ bw ranged from 14.8% (13.6-16.0%) to 31.2% (29.7-32.5%) according to the probabilistic assessment. The results of this work indicate that mean values of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European population were of similar magnitude using determinist or probabilistic assessments. For higher exposure levels, probabilistic estimates were almost consistently larger than deterministic counterparts, thus reflecting the impact of using the full distribution of occurrence values to determine exposure levels. It is considered prudent to use probabilistic methodology should exposure estimates be close to or exceeding health-based guidance values.

Probabilistic Multi-Person Tracking Using Dynamic Bayes Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinger, T.; Rottensteiner, F.; Heipke, C.

2015-08-01

Tracking-by-detection is a widely used practice in recent tracking systems. These usually rely on independent single frame detections that are handled as observations in a recursive estimation framework. If these observations are imprecise the generated trajectory is prone to be updated towards a wrong position. In contrary to existing methods our novel approach uses a Dynamic Bayes Network in which the state vector of a recursive Bayes filter, as well as the location of the tracked object in the image are modelled as unknowns. These unknowns are estimated in a probabilistic framework taking into account a dynamic model, and a state-of-the-art pedestrian detector and classifier. The classifier is based on the Random Forest-algorithm and is capable of being trained incrementally so that new training samples can be incorporated at runtime. This allows the classifier to adapt to the changing appearance of a target and to unlearn outdated features. The approach is evaluated on a publicly available benchmark. The results confirm that our approach is well suited for tracking pedestrians over long distances while at the same time achieving comparatively good geometric accuracy.

Probabilistic consensus scoring improves tandem mass spectrometry peptide identification.

PubMed

Nahnsen, Sven; Bertsch, Andreas; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Nordheim, Alfred; Kohlbacher, Oliver

2011-08-05

Database search is a standard technique for identifying peptides from their tandem mass spectra. To increase the number of correctly identified peptides, we suggest a probabilistic framework that allows the combination of scores from different search engines into a joint consensus score. Central to the approach is a novel method to estimate scores for peptides not found by an individual search engine. This approach allows the estimation of p-values for each candidate peptide and their combination across all search engines. The consensus approach works better than any single search engine across all different instrument types considered in this study. Improvements vary strongly from platform to platform and from search engine to search engine. Compared to the industry standard MASCOT, our approach can identify up to 60% more peptides. The software for consensus predictions is implemented in C++ as part of OpenMS, a software framework for mass spectrometry. The source code is available in the current development version of OpenMS and can easily be used as a command line application or via a graphical pipeline designer TOPPAS.

Decomposing dendrophilia. Comment on “Toward a computational framework for cognitive biology: Unifying approaches from cognitive neuroscience and comparative cognition” by W. Tecumseh Fitch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honing, Henkjan; Zuidema, Willem

2014-09-01

The future of cognitive science will be about bridging neuroscience and behavioral studies, with essential roles played by comparative biology, formal modeling, and the theory of computation. Nowhere will this integration be more strongly needed than in understanding the biological basis of language and music. We thus strongly sympathize with the general framework that Fitch [1] proposes, and welcome the remarkably broad and readable review he presents to support it.

RosettaRemodel: A Generalized Framework for Flexible Backbone Protein Design

PubMed Central

Huang, Po-Ssu; Ban, Yih-En Andrew; Richter, Florian; Andre, Ingemar; Vernon, Robert; Schief, William R.; Baker, David

2011-01-01

We describe RosettaRemodel, a generalized framework for flexible protein design that provides a versatile and convenient interface to the Rosetta modeling suite. RosettaRemodel employs a unified interface, called a blueprint, which allows detailed control over many aspects of flexible backbone protein design calculations. RosettaRemodel allows the construction and elaboration of customized protocols for a wide range of design problems ranging from loop insertion and deletion, disulfide engineering, domain assembly, loop remodeling, motif grafting, symmetrical units, to de novo structure modeling. PMID:21909381

Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qi; Xu, Weidong

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose a general foreign equity option pricing framework that unifies the vast foreign equity option pricing literature and incorporates the stochastic volatility into foreign equity option pricing. Under our framework, the time-changed Lévy processes are used to model the underlying assets price of foreign equity option and the closed form pricing formula is obtained through the use of characteristic function methodology. Numerical tests indicate that stochastic volatility has a dramatic effect on the foreign equity option prices.

A lightweight messaging-based distributed processing and workflow execution framework for real-time and big data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laban, Shaban; El-Desouky, Aly

2014-05-01

To achieve a rapid, simple and reliable parallel processing of different types of tasks and big data processing on any compute cluster, a lightweight messaging-based distributed applications processing and workflow execution framework model is proposed. The framework is based on Apache ActiveMQ and Simple (or Streaming) Text Oriented Message Protocol (STOMP). ActiveMQ , a popular and powerful open source persistence messaging and integration patterns server with scheduler capabilities, acts as a message broker in the framework. STOMP provides an interoperable wire format that allows framework programs to talk and interact between each other and ActiveMQ easily. In order to efficiently use the message broker a unified message and topic naming pattern is utilized to achieve the required operation. Only three Python programs and simple library, used to unify and simplify the implementation of activeMQ and STOMP protocol, are needed to use the framework. A watchdog program is used to monitor, remove, add, start and stop any machine and/or its different tasks when necessary. For every machine a dedicated one and only one zoo keeper program is used to start different functions or tasks, stompShell program, needed for executing the user required workflow. The stompShell instances are used to execute any workflow jobs based on received message. A well-defined, simple and flexible message structure, based on JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), is used to build any complex workflow systems. Also, JSON format is used in configuration, communication between machines and programs. The framework is platform independent. Although, the framework is built using Python the actual workflow programs or jobs can be implemented by any programming language. The generic framework can be used in small national data centres for processing seismological and radionuclide data received from the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Also, it is possible to extend the use of the framework in monitoring the IDC pipeline. The detailed design, implementation,conclusion and future work of the proposed framework will be presented.

RANZCR Body Systems Framework of diagnostic imaging examination descriptors.

PubMed

Pitman, Alexander G; Penlington, Lisa; Doromal, Darren; Slater, Gregory; Vukolova, Natalia

2014-08-01

A unified and logical system of descriptors for diagnostic imaging examinations and procedures is a desirable resource for radiology in Australia and New Zealand and is needed to support core activities of RANZCR. Existing descriptor systems available in Australia and New Zealand (including the Medicare DIST and the ACC Schedule) have significant limitations and are inappropriate for broader clinical application. An anatomically based grid was constructed, with anatomical structures arranged in rows and diagnostic imaging modalities arranged in columns (including nuclear medicine and positron emission tomography). The grid was segregated into five body systems. The cells at the intersection of an anatomical structure row and an imaging modality column were populated with short, formulaic descriptors of the applicable diagnostic imaging examinations. Clinically illogical or physically impossible combinations were 'greyed out'. Where the same examination applied to different anatomical structures, the descriptor was kept identical for the purposes of streamlining. The resulting Body Systems Framework of diagnostic imaging examination descriptors lists all the reasonably common diagnostic imaging examinations currently performed in Australia and New Zealand using a unified grid structure allowing navigation by both referrers and radiologists. The Framework has been placed on the RANZCR website and is available for access free of charge by registered users. The Body Systems Framework of diagnostic imaging examination descriptors is a system of descriptors based on relationships between anatomical structures and imaging modalities. The Framework is now available as a resource and reference point for the radiology profession and to support core College activities. © 2014 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique.

PubMed

Read, Mark; Andrews, Paul S; Timmis, Jon; Kumar, Vipin

2014-10-06

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology.

Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique

PubMed Central

Read, Mark; Andrews, Paul S.; Timmis, Jon; Kumar, Vipin

2014-01-01

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology. PMID:25142524

A stochastically fully connected conditional random field framework for super resolution OCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boroomand, A.; Tan, B.; Wong, A.; Bizheva, K.

2017-02-01

A number of factors can degrade the resolution and contrast of OCT images, such as: (1) changes of the OCT pointspread function (PSF) resulting from wavelength dependent scattering and absorption of light along the imaging depth (2) speckle noise, as well as (3) motion artifacts. We propose a new Super Resolution OCT (SR OCT) imaging framework that takes advantage of a Stochastically Fully Connected Conditional Random Field (SF-CRF) model to generate a Super Resolved OCT (SR OCT) image of higher quality from a set of Low-Resolution OCT (LR OCT) images. The proposed SF-CRF SR OCT imaging is able to simultaneously compensate for all of the factors mentioned above, that degrade the OCT image quality, using a unified computational framework. The proposed SF-CRF SR OCT imaging framework was tested on a set of simulated LR human retinal OCT images generated from a high resolution, high contrast retinal image, and on a set of in-vivo, high resolution, high contrast rat retinal OCT images. The reconstructed SR OCT images show considerably higher spatial resolution, less speckle noise and higher contrast compared to other tested methods. Visual assessment of the results demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach in better preservation of fine details and structures of the imaged sample, retaining biological tissue boundaries while reducing speckle noise using a unified computational framework. Quantitative evaluation using both Contrast to Noise Ratio (CNR) and Edge Preservation (EP) parameter also showed superior performance of the proposed SF-CRF SR OCT approach compared to other image processing approaches.

Qualitative insights into practice time management: does 'patient-centred time' in practice management offer a portal to improved access?

PubMed

Buetow, S; Adair, V; Coster, G; Hight, M; Gribben, B; Mitchell, E

2002-12-01

Different sets of literature suggest how aspects of practice time management can limit access to general practitioner (GP) care. Researchers have not organised this knowledge into a unified framework that can enhance understanding of barriers to, and opportunities for, improved access. To suggest a framework conceptualising how differences in professional and cultural understanding of practice time management in Auckland, New Zealand, influence access to GP care for children with chronic asthma. A qualitative study involving selective sampling, semi-structured interviews on barriers to access, and a general inductive approach. Twenty-nine key informants and ten mothers of children with chronic, moderate to severe asthma and poor access to GP care in Auckland. Development of a framework from themes describing barriers associated with, and needs for, practice time management. The themes were independently identified by two authors from transcribed interviews and confirmed through informant checking. Themes from key informant and patient interviews were triangulated with each other and with published literature. The framework distinguishes 'practice-centred time' from 'patient-centred time.' A predominance of 'practice-centred time' and an unmet opportunity for 'patient-centred time' are suggested by the persistence of five barriers to accessing GP care: limited hours of opening; traditional appointment systems; practice intolerance of missed appointments; long waiting times in the practice; and inadequate consultation lengths. None of the barriers is specific to asthmatic children. A unified framework was suggested for understanding how the organisation of practice work time can influence access to GP care by groups including asthmatic children.

High-order distance-based multiview stochastic learning in image classification.

PubMed

Yu, Jun; Rui, Yong; Tang, Yuan Yan; Tao, Dacheng

2014-12-01

How do we find all images in a larger set of images which have a specific content? Or estimate the position of a specific object relative to the camera? Image classification methods, like support vector machine (supervised) and transductive support vector machine (semi-supervised), are invaluable tools for the applications of content-based image retrieval, pose estimation, and optical character recognition. However, these methods only can handle the images represented by single feature. In many cases, different features (or multiview data) can be obtained, and how to efficiently utilize them is a challenge. It is inappropriate for the traditionally concatenating schema to link features of different views into a long vector. The reason is each view has its specific statistical property and physical interpretation. In this paper, we propose a high-order distance-based multiview stochastic learning (HD-MSL) method for image classification. HD-MSL effectively combines varied features into a unified representation and integrates the labeling information based on a probabilistic framework. In comparison with the existing strategies, our approach adopts the high-order distance obtained from the hypergraph to replace pairwise distance in estimating the probability matrix of data distribution. In addition, the proposed approach can automatically learn a combination coefficient for each view, which plays an important role in utilizing the complementary information of multiview data. An alternative optimization is designed to solve the objective functions of HD-MSL and obtain different views on coefficients and classification scores simultaneously. Experiments on two real world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of HD-MSL in image classification.

Towards Breaking the Histone Code – Bayesian Graphical Models for Histone Modifications

PubMed Central

Mitra, Riten; Müller, Peter; Liang, Shoudan; Xu, Yanxun; Ji, Yuan

2013-01-01

Background Histones are proteins that wrap DNA around in small spherical structures called nucleosomes. Histone modifications (HMs) refer to the post-translational modifications to the histone tails. At a particular genomic locus, each of these HMs can either be present or absent, and the combinatory patterns of the presence or absence of multiple HMs, or the ‘histone codes,’ are believed to co-regulate important biological processes. We aim to use raw data on HM markers at different genomic loci to (1) decode the complex biological network of HMs in a single region and (2) demonstrate how the HM networks differ in different regulatory regions. We suggest that these differences in network attributes form a significant link between histones and genomic functions. Methods and Results We develop a powerful graphical model under Bayesian paradigm. Posterior inference is fully probabilistic, allowing us to compute the probabilities of distinct dependence patterns of the HMs using graphs. Furthermore, our model-based framework allows for easy but important extensions for inference on differential networks under various conditions, such as the different annotations of the genomic locations (e.g., promoters versus insulators). We applied these models to ChIP-Seq data based on CD4+ T lymphocytes. The results confirmed many existing findings and provided a unified tool to generate various promising hypotheses. Differential network analyses revealed new insights on co-regulation of HMs of transcriptional activities in different genomic regions. Conclusions The use of Bayesian graphical models and borrowing strength across different conditions provide high power to infer histone networks and their differences. PMID:23748248

A quantum probability framework for human probabilistic inference.

PubMed

Trueblood, Jennifer S; Yearsley, James M; Pothos, Emmanuel M

2017-09-01

There is considerable variety in human inference (e.g., a doctor inferring the presence of a disease, a juror inferring the guilt of a defendant, or someone inferring future weight loss based on diet and exercise). As such, people display a wide range of behaviors when making inference judgments. Sometimes, people's judgments appear Bayesian (i.e., normative), but in other cases, judgments deviate from the normative prescription of classical probability theory. How can we combine both Bayesian and non-Bayesian influences in a principled way? We propose a unified explanation of human inference using quantum probability theory. In our approach, we postulate a hierarchy of mental representations, from 'fully' quantum to 'fully' classical, which could be adopted in different situations. In our hierarchy of models, moving from the lowest level to the highest involves changing assumptions about compatibility (i.e., how joint events are represented). Using results from 3 experiments, we show that our modeling approach explains 5 key phenomena in human inference including order effects, reciprocity (i.e., the inverse fallacy), memorylessness, violations of the Markov condition, and antidiscounting. As far as we are aware, no existing theory or model can explain all 5 phenomena. We also explore transitions in our hierarchy, examining how representations change from more quantum to more classical. We show that classical representations provide a better account of data as individuals gain familiarity with a task. We also show that representations vary between individuals, in a way that relates to a simple measure of cognitive style, the Cognitive Reflection Test. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Equity inthe use of dental services provided by the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) among the elderly: a population-based study.

PubMed

Oliveira, Renata Francine Rodrigues de; Souza, João Gabriel Silva; Haikal, Desireé Sant'Ana; Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira E; Martins, Andréa Maria Eleutério de Barros Lima

2016-11-01

The scope of this study is to establish the profile of elderly users of dental services provided by the Brazilian Unified Health System(SUS) and associated factors from the standpoint of equity. It involves an analytical cross-sectional study with hierarchical modeling conducted on the basis of a complex probabilistic sample of groups of the elderly (65-74 years of age) living in a densely populated Brazilian city. Independent variables were included relating to: socio-demographic characteristics, access to information on health, behaviors/health-care system and health outcomes. Descriptive, bivariate and multiple hierarchical analysis was performed. Of the 480 elderly persons included, 138 (31.2%) used dental services from the SUS. Use of these services was greater as per capita income and level of schooling decreased. It was lower among those who had not conducted exams of their own mouths (oral self-examinations) and higher among those individuals who used dental services for non-routine procedures. In addition, people whose relationship had been affected by oral health issues and a negative perception of their appearance used the SUS more frequently. The conclusion drawn is that the use of dental services of the SUS was most prevalent among the elderly living in precarious conditions.

Pattern activation/recognition theory of mind

PubMed Central

du Castel, Bertrand

2015-01-01

In his 2012 book How to Create a Mind, Ray Kurzweil defines a “Pattern Recognition Theory of Mind” that states that the brain uses millions of pattern recognizers, plus modules to check, organize, and augment them. In this article, I further the theory to go beyond pattern recognition and include also pattern activation, thus encompassing both sensory and motor functions. In addition, I treat checking, organizing, and augmentation as patterns of patterns instead of separate modules, therefore handling them the same as patterns in general. Henceforth I put forward a unified theory I call “Pattern Activation/Recognition Theory of Mind.” While the original theory was based on hierarchical hidden Markov models, this evolution is based on their precursor: stochastic grammars. I demonstrate that a class of self-describing stochastic grammars allows for unifying pattern activation, recognition, organization, consistency checking, metaphor, and learning, into a single theory that expresses patterns throughout. I have implemented the model as a probabilistic programming language specialized in activation/recognition grammatical and neural operations. I use this prototype to compute and present diagrams for each stochastic grammar and corresponding neural circuit. I then discuss the theory as it relates to artificial network developments, common coding, neural reuse, and unity of mind, concluding by proposing potential paths to validation. PMID:26236228

Pattern activation/recognition theory of mind.

PubMed

du Castel, Bertrand

2015-01-01

In his 2012 book How to Create a Mind, Ray Kurzweil defines a "Pattern Recognition Theory of Mind" that states that the brain uses millions of pattern recognizers, plus modules to check, organize, and augment them. In this article, I further the theory to go beyond pattern recognition and include also pattern activation, thus encompassing both sensory and motor functions. In addition, I treat checking, organizing, and augmentation as patterns of patterns instead of separate modules, therefore handling them the same as patterns in general. Henceforth I put forward a unified theory I call "Pattern Activation/Recognition Theory of Mind." While the original theory was based on hierarchical hidden Markov models, this evolution is based on their precursor: stochastic grammars. I demonstrate that a class of self-describing stochastic grammars allows for unifying pattern activation, recognition, organization, consistency checking, metaphor, and learning, into a single theory that expresses patterns throughout. I have implemented the model as a probabilistic programming language specialized in activation/recognition grammatical and neural operations. I use this prototype to compute and present diagrams for each stochastic grammar and corresponding neural circuit. I then discuss the theory as it relates to artificial network developments, common coding, neural reuse, and unity of mind, concluding by proposing potential paths to validation.

Modeling Array Stations in SIG-VISA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, N.; Moore, D.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

We add support for array stations to SIG-VISA, a system for nuclear monitoring using probabilistic inference on seismic signals. Array stations comprise a large portion of the IMS network; they can provide increased sensitivity and more accurate directional information compared to single-component stations. Our existing model assumed that signals were independent at each station, which is false when lots of stations are close together, as in an array. The new model removes that assumption by jointly modeling signals across array elements. This is done by extending our existing Gaussian process (GP) regression models, also known as kriging, from a 3-dimensional single-component space of events to a 6-dimensional space of station-event pairs. For each array and each event attribute (including coda decay, coda height, amplitude transfer and travel time), we model the joint distribution across array elements using a Gaussian process that learns the correlation lengthscale across the array, thereby incorporating information of array stations into the probabilistic inference framework. To evaluate the effectiveness of our model, we perform ';probabilistic beamforming' on new events using our GP model, i.e., we compute the event azimuth having highest posterior probability under the model, conditioned on the signals at array elements. We compare the results from our probabilistic inference model to the beamforming currently performed by IMS station processing.

Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

2010-10-01

Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, Brian D.; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole

The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghanem, Roger; Knio, Omar

2000-01-01

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Teacher Preparation for Vocational Education and Training in Germany: A Potential Model for Canada?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barabasch, Antje; Watt-Malcolm, Bonnie

2013-01-01

Germany's vocational education and training (VET) and corresponding teacher-education programmes are known worldwide for their integrated framework. Government legislation unifies companies, unions and vocational schools, and specifies the education and training required for students as well as vocational teachers. Changing from the Diplom…

The Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM): software framework overview and model application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was developed in 1989, the EPIC plant growth component has been incorporated into other erosion and crop management models (e.g., WEPS, WEPP, SWAT, ALMANAC, and APEX) and modified to meet model developer research objectives. This has re...

The Importance of Culture for Developmental Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Heidi

2012-01-01

In this essay, it is argued that a general understanding of human development needs a unified framework based on evolutionary theorizing and cross-cultural and cultural anthropological approaches. An eco-social model of development has been proposed that defines cultural milieus as adaptations to specific socio-demographic contexts. Ontogenetic…

Software Hardware Asset Reuse Enterprise (SHARE) Repository Framework Final Report: Component Specification and Ontology

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-19

SSDS Ship Self Defense System TSTS Total Ship Training System UDDI Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration UML Unified Modeling...34ContractorOrganization" type="ContractorOrganizationType"> <xs:annotation> <xs:documentation>Identifies a contractor organization resposible for the

An Extension of Multiple Correspondence Analysis for Identifying Heterogeneous Subgroups of Respondents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hwang, Heungsun; Montreal, Hec; Dillon, William R.; Takane, Yoshio

2006-01-01

An extension of multiple correspondence analysis is proposed that takes into account cluster-level heterogeneity in respondents' preferences/choices. The method involves combining multiple correspondence analysis and k-means in a unified framework. The former is used for uncovering a low-dimensional space of multivariate categorical variables…

Diversity from genes to ecosystems: A unifying framework to study variation across biological metrics and scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biological diversity is a key concept in the life sciences and plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes. Although biodiversity is inherently a hierarchical concept covering different levels of organization (genes, population, species, ecological communities and ecosyst...

The Theory behind the Theory in DCT and SCDT: A Response to Rigazio-DiGilio.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terry, Linda L.

1994-01-01

Responds to previous article by Rigazio-DiGilio on Developmental Counseling and Therapy and Systemic Cognitive-Developmental Therapy as two integrative models that unify individual, family, and network treatment within coconstructive-developmental framework. Discusses hidden complexities in cognitive-developmental ecosystemic integration and…

Potential of DCT/SCDT in Addressing Two Elusive Themes of Mental Health Counseling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borders, L. DiAnne

1994-01-01

Responds to previous article by Rigazio-DiGilio on Developmental Counseling and Therapy and Systemic Cognitive-Developmental Therapy as two integrative models that unify individual, family, and network treatment within coconstructive-developmental framework. Considers extent to which model breaks impasse in integrating development into counseling…

Converging Instructional Technology and Critical Intercultural Pedagogy in Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittman, Joyce

2007-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to postulate an emerging unified cultural-convergence framework to converge the delivery of instructional technology and intercultural education (ICE) that extends beyond web-learning technologies to inculcate inclusive pedagogy in teacher education. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explores the literature and a…

Spending on School Infrastructure: Does Money Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crampton, Faith E.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to further develop an emerging thread of quantitative research that grounds investment in school infrastructure in a unified theoretical framework of investment in human, social, and physical capital. Design/methodology/approach: To answer the research question, what is the impact of investment in human,…

Simultaneous Two-Way Clustering of Multiple Correspondence Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hwang, Heungsun; Dillon, William R.

2010-01-01

A 2-way clustering approach to multiple correspondence analysis is proposed to account for cluster-level heterogeneity of both respondents and variable categories in multivariate categorical data. Specifically, in the proposed method, multiple correspondence analysis is combined with k-means in a unified framework in which "k"-means is…

Darwinian Liberal Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnhart, Larry

2006-01-01

Be it metaphysics, theology, or some other unifying framework, humans have long sought to determine "first principles" underlying knowledge. Larry Arnhart continues in this vein, positing a Darwinian web of genetic, cultural, and cognitive evolution to explain our social behavior in terms of human nature as governed by biology. He leaves it to us…