An evaluation of the utility and limitations of counting motor unit action potentials in the surface electromyogram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ping; Zev Rymer, William

2004-12-01

The number of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) appearing in the surface electromyogram (EMG) signal is directly related to motor unit recruitment and firing rates and therefore offers potentially valuable information about the level of activation of the motoneuron pool. In this paper, based on morphological features of the surface MUAPs, we try to estimate the number of MUAPs present in the surface EMG by counting the negative peaks in the signal. Several signal processing procedures are applied to the surface EMG to facilitate this peak counting process. The MUAP number estimation performance by this approach is first illustrated using the surface EMG simulations. Then, by evaluating the peak counting results from the EMG records detected by a very selective surface electrode, at different contraction levels of the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) muscles, the utility and limitations of such direct peak counts for MUAP number estimation in surface EMG are further explored.

Conditional estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, D.A.

1994-01-01

A desirable guide for estimating the number of undiscovered mineral deposits is the number of known deposits per unit area from another well-explored permissive terrain. An analysis of the distribution of 805 podiform chromite deposits among ultramafic rocks in 12 subareas of Oregon and 27 counties of California is used to examine and extend this guide. The average number of deposits in this sample of 39 areas is 0.225 deposits per km2 of ultramafic rock; the frequency distribution is significantly skewed to the right. Probabilistic estimates can be made by using the observation that the lognormal distribution fits the distribution of deposits per unit area. A further improvement in the estimates is available by using the relationship between the area of ultramafic rock and the number of deposits. The number (N) of exposed podiform chromite deposits can be estimated by the following relationship: log10(N)=-0.194+0.577 log10(area of ultramafic rock). The slope is significantly different from both 0.0 and 1.0. Because the slope is less than 1.0, the ratio of deposits to area of permissive rock is a biased estimator when the area of ultramafic rock is different from the median 93 km2. Unbiased estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits can be made with the regression equation and 80 percent confidence limits presented herein. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Estimating the Availability of Potential Homes for Unwanted Horses in the United States

PubMed Central

Weiss, Emily; Dolan, Emily D.; Mohan-Gibbons, Heather; Gramann, Shannon; Slater, Margaret R.

2017-01-01

Simple Summary There are approximately 200,000 unwanted horses annually in the United States. Many are shipped to slaughter, enter rescue facilities, or are held on federal lands. This study aimed to estimate a potential number of available homes for unwanted horses in order to examine broadly the viability of pursuing re-homing policies as an option for the thousands of unwanted horses in the U.S. The results of this survey suggest there could be an estimated 1.2 million homes who have both the perceived resources and desire to house an unwanted horse. This number exceeds the approximately 200,000 unwanted horses living each year in the United States. These data suggest that efforts to reduce unwanted horses could involve matching such horses with adoptive homes and enhancing opportunities to keep horses in the homes they already have. Abstract There are approximately 200,000 unwanted horses annually in the United States. This study aimed to better understand the potential homes for horses that need to be re-homed. Using an independent survey company through an Omnibus telephone (land and cell) survey, we interviewed a nationally projectable sample of 3036 adults (using both landline and cellular phone numbers) to learn of their interest and capacity to adopt a horse. Potential adopters with interest in horses with medical and/or behavioral problems and self-assessed perceived capacity to adopt, constituted 0.92% of the total sample. Extrapolating the results of this survey using U.S. Census data, suggests there could be an estimated 1.25 million households who have both the self-reported and perceived resources and desire to house an unwanted horse. This number exceeds the estimated number of unwanted horses living each year in the United States. This study points to opportunities and need to increase communication and support between individuals and organizations that have unwanted horses to facilitate re-homing with people in their community willing to adopt them. PMID:28726730

Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

Scale and the evolutionarily based approximate number system: an exploratory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Cesar; Jones, M. Gail; You, Hye Sun; Robertson, Laura; Chesnutt, Katherine; Halberda, Justin

2017-05-01

Crosscutting concepts such as scale, proportion, and quantity are recognised by U.S. science standards as a potential vehicle for students to integrate their scientific and mathematical knowledge; yet, U.S. students and adults trail their international peers in scale and measurement estimation. Culturally based knowledge of scale such as measurement units may be built on evolutionarily-based systems of number such as the approximate number system (ANS), which processes approximate representations of numerical magnitude. ANS is related to mathematical achievement in pre-school and early elementary students, but there is little research on ANS among older students or in science-related areas such as scale. Here, we investigate the relationship between ANS precision in public school U.S. seventh graders and their accuracy estimating the length of standard units of measurement in SI and U.S. customary units. We also explored the relationship between ANS and science and mathematics achievement. Accuracy estimating the metre was positively and significantly related to ANS precision. Mathematics achievement, science achievement, and accuracy estimating other units were not significantly related to ANS. We thus suggest that ANS precision may be related to mathematics understanding beyond arithmetic, beyond the early school years, and to the crosscutting concepts of scale, proportion, and quantity.

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

A comment on "bats killed in large numbers at United States wind energy facilities"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Dalthorp, Dan

2014-01-01

Widespread reports of bat fatalities caused by wind turbines have raised concerns about the impacts of wind power development. Reliable estimates of the total number killed and the potential effects on populations are needed, but it is crucial that they be based on sound data. In a recent BioScience article, Hayes (2013) estimated that over 600,000 bats were killed at wind turbines in the United States in 2012. The scientific errors in the analysis are numerous, with the two most serious being that the included sites constituted a convenience sample, not a representative sample, and that the individual site estimates are derived from such different methodologies that they are inherently not comparable. This estimate is almost certainly inaccurate, but whether the actual number is much smaller, much larger, or about the same is uncertain. An accurate estimate of total bat fatality is not currently possible, given the shortcomings of the available data.

75 FR 27385 - Petition for Waiver of Compliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-14

... identifying mark, type of car, year built, number of windows and the estimated replacement glazing cost for...'s arguments in favor of relief. United Railroad Historical Society of New Jersey [Docket Number FRA-2010-0079] The United Railroad Historical Society of New Jersey (URHS) of Jackson, New Jersey, has...

Runoff Curve Numbers from Ten, Small Forested Watersheds in the Mountains of the Eastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

Engineers and hydrologists use the curve number method to estimate runoff from rainfall for different land use and soil conditions; however, large uncertainties occur for estimates from forested watersheds. This investigation evaluates the accuracy and consistency of the method u...

75 FR 61551 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: DS 4079, Request for Determination of Possible...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-05

... 4079, Request for Determination of Possible Loss of United States Citizenship, (No. 1405-0178) ACTION... Information Collection: Request for Determination of Possible Loss of United States Citizenship. OMB Control... Number of Respondents: 1,132. Estimated Number of Responses: 1,132. Average Hours Per Response: 15...

Sampling for area estimation: A comparison of full-frame sampling with the sample segment approach. [Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hixson, M. M.; Bauer, M. E.; Davis, B. J.

1979-01-01

The effect of sampling on the accuracy (precision and bias) of crop area estimates made from classifications of LANDSAT MSS data was investigated. Full-frame classifications of wheat and non-wheat for eighty counties in Kansas were repetitively sampled to simulate alternative sampling plants. Four sampling schemes involving different numbers of samples and different size sampling units were evaluated. The precision of the wheat area estimates increased as the segment size decreased and the number of segments was increased. Although the average bias associated with the various sampling schemes was not significantly different, the maximum absolute bias was directly related to sampling unit size.

77 FR 14407 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Extension of an Existing Information Collection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-09

... of information collection under review; Form G- 646, Sworn Statement of Refugee Applying for...: Sworn Statement of Refugee Applying for Admission to the United States. (3) Agency form number, if any... States as refugees. (5) An estimate of the total number of respondents and the amount of time estimated...

Designing occupancy studies: general advice and allocating survey effort

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

1. The fraction of sampling units in a landscape where a target species is present (occupancy) is an extensively used concept in ecology. Yet in many applications the species will not always be detected in a sampling unit even when present, resulting in biased estimates of occupancy. Given that sampling units are surveyed repeatedly within a relatively short timeframe, a number of similar methods have now been developed to provide unbiased occupancy estimates. However, practical guidance on the efficient design of occupancy studies has been lacking. 2. In this paper we comment on a number of general issues related to designing occupancy studies, including the need for clear objectives that are explicitly linked to science or management, selection of sampling units, timing of repeat surveys and allocation of survey effort. Advice on the number of repeat surveys per sampling unit is considered in terms of the variance of the occupancy estimator, for three possible study designs. 3. We recommend that sampling units should be surveyed a minimum of three times when detection probability is high (> 0.5 survey-1), unless a removal design is used. 4. We found that an optimal removal design will generally be the most efficient, but we suggest it may be less robust to assumption violations than a standard design. 5. Our results suggest that for a rare species it is more efficient to survey more sampling units less intensively, while for a common species fewer sampling units should be surveyed more intensively. 6. Synthesis and applications. Reliable inferences can only result from quality data. To make the best use of logistical resources, study objectives must be clearly defined; sampling units must be selected, and repeated surveys timed appropriately; and a sufficient number of repeated surveys must be conducted. Failure to do so may compromise the integrity of the study. The guidance given here on study design issues is particularly applicable to studies of species occurrence and distribution, habitat selection and modelling, metapopulation studies and monitoring programmes.

Homeless Mentally Ill: Problems and Options in Estimating Numbers and Trends. Report to the Chairman, Committee on Labor and Human Resources, U.S. Senate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Program Evaluation and Methodology Div.

In response to a request by the United States Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, the General Accounting Office (GAO) examined the methodological soundness of current population estimates of the number of homeless chronically mentally ill persons, and proposed several options for estimating the size of this population. The GAO reviewed…

Statistical guides to estimating the number of undiscovered mineral deposits: an example with porphyry copper deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Menzie, W.D.; Cheng, Qiuming; Bonham-Carter, G. F.

2005-01-01

Estimating numbers of undiscovered mineral deposits is a fundamental part of assessing mineral resources. Some statistical tools can act as guides to low variance, unbiased estimates of the number of deposits. The primary guide is that the estimates must be consistent with the grade and tonnage models. Another statistical guide is the deposit density (i.e., the number of deposits per unit area of permissive rock in well-explored control areas). Preliminary estimates and confidence limits of the number of undiscovered deposits in a tract of given area may be calculated using linear regression and refined using frequency distributions with appropriate parameters. A Poisson distribution leads to estimates having lower relative variances than the regression estimates and implies a random distribution of deposits. Coefficients of variation are used to compare uncertainties of negative binomial, Poisson, or MARK3 empirical distributions that have the same expected number of deposits as the deposit density. Statistical guides presented here allow simple yet robust estimation of the number of undiscovered deposits in permissive terranes. 

Fault tree analysis for exposure to refrigerants used for automotive air conditioning in the United States.

PubMed

Jetter, J J; Forte, R; Rubenstein, R

2001-02-01

A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servicing. The number of refrigerant exposures of service technicians was estimated to be 135,000 per year. Exposures of vehicle occupants can occur when refrigerant enters passenger compartments due to sudden leaks in air-conditioning systems, leaks following servicing, or leaks caused by collisions. The total number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated to be 3,600 per year. The largest number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated for leaks caused by collisions, and the second largest number of exposures was estimated for leaks following servicing. Estimates used in the fault tree analysis were based on a survey of automotive air-conditioning service shops, the best available data from the literature, and the engineering judgement of the authors and expert reviewers from the Society of Automotive Engineers Interior Climate Control Standards Committee. Exposure concentrations and durations were estimated and compared with toxicity data for refrigerants currently used in automotive air conditioners. Uncertainty was high for the estimated numbers of exposures, exposure concentrations, and exposure durations. Uncertainty could be reduced in the future by conducting more extensive surveys, measurements of refrigerant concentrations, and exposure monitoring. Nevertheless, the analysis indicated that the risk of exposure of service technicians and vehicle occupants is significant, and it is recommended that no refrigerant that is substantially more toxic than currently available substitutes be accepted for use in vehicle air-conditioning systems, absent a means of mitigating exposure.

Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions per urban center link unit using data collected by the Advanced Traffic Information System in Daejeon, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, B. Y.; Jung, H. J.; Bae, S. H.; Choi, C. U.

2013-12-01

CO2 emissions on roads in urban centers substantially affect global warming. It is important to quantify CO2 emissions in terms of the link unit in order to reduce these emissions on the roads. Therefore, in this study, we utilized real-time traffic data and attempted to develop a methodology for estimating CO2 emissions per link unit. Because of the recent development of the vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication technology, data from probe vehicles (PVs) can be collected and speed per link unit can be calculated. Among the existing emission calculation methodologies, mesoscale modeling, which is a representative modeling measurement technique, requires speed and traffic data per link unit. As it is not feasible to install fixed detectors at every link for traffic data collection, in this study, we developed a model for traffic volume estimation by utilizing the number of PVs that can be additionally collected when the PV data are collected. Multiple linear regression and an artificial neural network (ANN) were used for estimating the traffic volume. The independent variables and input data for each model are the number of PVs, travel time index (TTI), the number of lanes, and time slots. The result from the traffic volume estimate model shows that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ANN is 18.67%, thus proving that it is more effective. The ANN-based traffic volume estimation served as the basis for the calculation of emissions per link unit. The daily average emissions for Daejeon, where this study was based, were 2210.19 ton/day. By vehicle type, passenger cars accounted for 71.28% of the total emissions. By road, Gyeryongro emitted 125.48 ton/day, accounting for 5.68% of the total emission, the highest percentage of all roads. In terms of emissions per kilometer, Hanbatdaero had the highest emission volume, with 7.26 ton/day/km on average. This study proves that real-time traffic data allow an emissions estimate in terms of the link unit. Furthermore, an analysis of CO2 emissions can support traffic management to make decisions related to the reduction of carbon emissions.

Sampling for area estimation: A comparison of full-frame sampling with the sample segment approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hixson, M.; Bauer, M. E.; Davis, B. J. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Full-frame classifications of wheat and non-wheat for eighty counties in Kansas were repetitively sampled to simulate alternative sampling plans. Evaluation of four sampling schemes involving different numbers of samples and different size sampling units shows that the precision of the wheat estimates increased as the segment size decreased and the number of segments was increased. Although the average bias associated with the various sampling schemes was not significantly different, the maximum absolute bias was directly related to sampling size unit.

Shifting foundations and metrics for golden-cheeked warbler recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Duarte, Adam

2012-01-01

Using the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) as a case study, this paper discusses what lessons can be learned from the process of the emergency listing and subsequent development of the recovery plan. Are the metrics for recovery in the current warbler plan appropriate, including population size and distribution (recovery units), migration corridors, and wintering habitat? In other words, what happened, what can we learn, and what should happen (in general) in the future for development of such plans? We discuss the number of recovery units required for species persistence and estimate the number of male warblers in protected areas across the breeding range of the species, using newly published density estimates. We also discuss future monitoring strategies to estimate warbler population trends and dispersal rates.

Toward determining the lifetime occurrence of metastatic brain tumors estimated from 2007 United States cancer incidence data

PubMed Central

Davis, Faith G.; Dolecek, Therese A.; McCarthy, Bridget J.; Villano, John L.

2012-01-01

Few population estimates of brain metastasis in the United States are available, prompting this study. Our objective was to estimate the expected number of metastatic brain tumors that would subsequently develop among incident cancer cases for 1 diagnosis year in the United States. Incidence proportions for primary cancer sites known to develop brain metastasis were applied to United States cancer incidence data for 2007 that were retrieved from accessible data sets through Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Web sites. Incidence proportions were identified for cancer sites, reflecting 80% of all cancers. It was conservatively estimated that almost 70 000 new brain metastases would occur over the remaining lifetime of individuals who received a diagnosis in 2007 of primary invasive cancer in the United States. That is, 6% of newly diagnosed cases of cancer during 2007 would be expected to develop brain metastasis as a progression of their original cancer diagnosis; the most frequent sites for metastases being lung and bronchus and breast cancers. The estimated numbers of brain metastasis will be expected to be higher among white individuals, female individuals, and older age groups. Changing patterns in the occurrence of primary cancers, trends in populations at risk, effectiveness of treatments on survival, and access to those treatments will influence the extent of brain tumor metastasis at the population level. These findings provide insight on the patterns of brain tumor metastasis and the future burden of this condition in the United States. PMID:22898372

Toward determining the lifetime occurrence of metastatic brain tumors estimated from 2007 United States cancer incidence data.

PubMed

Davis, Faith G; Dolecek, Therese A; McCarthy, Bridget J; Villano, John L

2012-09-01

Few population estimates of brain metastasis in the United States are available, prompting this study. Our objective was to estimate the expected number of metastatic brain tumors that would subsequently develop among incident cancer cases for 1 diagnosis year in the United States. Incidence proportions for primary cancer sites known to develop brain metastasis were applied to United States cancer incidence data for 2007 that were retrieved from accessible data sets through Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Web sites. Incidence proportions were identified for cancer sites, reflecting 80% of all cancers. It was conservatively estimated that almost 70 000 new brain metastases would occur over the remaining lifetime of individuals who received a diagnosis in 2007 of primary invasive cancer in the United States. That is, 6% of newly diagnosed cases of cancer during 2007 would be expected to develop brain metastasis as a progression of their original cancer diagnosis; the most frequent sites for metastases being lung and bronchus and breast cancers. The estimated numbers of brain metastasis will be expected to be higher among white individuals, female individuals, and older age groups. Changing patterns in the occurrence of primary cancers, trends in populations at risk, effectiveness of treatments on survival, and access to those treatments will influence the extent of brain tumor metastasis at the population level. These findings provide insight on the patterns of brain tumor metastasis and the future burden of this condition in the United States.

The Minicommunity Design to Assess Indirect Effects of Vaccination.

PubMed

Halloran, M Elizabeth

2012-08-01

We propose the minicommunity design to estimate indirect effects of vaccination. Establishing indirect effects of vaccination in unvaccinated subpopulations could have important implications for global vaccine policies. In the minicommunity design, the household or other small transmission unit serves as the cluster in which to estimate indirect effects of vaccination, similar to studies in larger communities to estimate indirect, total, and overall effects. Examples from the literature include studies in small transmission units to estimate indirect effects of pertussis, pneumococcal, influenza, and cholera vaccines. We characterize the minicommunity design by several methodologic considerations, including the assignment mechanism, ascertainment, the role of transmission outside the transmission unit, and the relation of the size of the transmission unit to number of people vaccinated. The minicommunity study for indirect effects is contrasted with studies to estimate vaccine effects on infectiousness and protective effects under conditions of household exposure within small transmission units. The minicommunity design can be easily implemented in individually randomized studies by enrolling and following-up members of households of the randomized individuals. The methodology for the minicommunity design for estimating indirect effects of vaccination deserves much future research.

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

2012-01-01

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

The effects on the microbiological condition of product of carcass dressing, cooling, and portioning processes at a poultry packing plant.

PubMed

Gill, C O; Moza, L F; Badoni, M; Barbut, S

2006-07-15

The log mean numbers of aerobes, coliforms, Escherichia coli and presumptive staphylococci plus listerias on chicken carcasses and carcass portions at various stages of processing at a poultry packing plant were estimated from the numbers of those bacteria recovered from groups of 25 randomly selected product units. The fractions of listerias in the presumptive staphylococci plus listerias groups of organisms were also estimated. Samples were obtained from carcasses by excising a strip of skin measuring approximately 5 x 2 cm(2) from a randomly selected site on each selected carcass, or by rinsing each selected carcass portion. The log mean numbers of aerobes, coliforms, E. coli and presumptive staphylococci plus listerias on carcasses after scalding at 58 degrees C and plucking were about 4.4, 2.5, 2.2 and 1.4 log cfu/cm(2), respectively. The numbers of bacteria on eviscerated carcasses were similar. After the series of operations for removing the crop, lungs, kidneys and neck, the numbers of aerobes were about 1 log unit less than on eviscerated carcasses, but the numbers of the other bacteria were not substantially reduced. After cooling in water, the numbers of coliforms and E. coli were about 1 log unit less and the numbers of presumptive staphylococci plus listerias were about 0.5 log unit less than the numbers on dressed carcasses, but the numbers of aerobes were not reduced. The numbers of aerobes were 1 log unit more on boneless breasts, and 0.5 log units more on skin-on thighs and breasts that had been tumbled with brine than on cooled carcasses; and presumptive staphylococci plus listerias were 0.5 log unit more on thighs than on cooled carcasses. Otherwise the numbers of bacteria on the product were not substantially affected by processing. Listerias were <20% of the presumptive staphylococci plus listerias group of organisms recovered from product at each point in the process except after breasts were tumbled with brine, when >40% of the organisms were listerias.

Curve numbers for nine mountainous eastern United States watersheds: seasonal variation and forest cutting

Treesearch

Negussie H. Tedela; Steven C. McCutcheon; John L. Campbell; Wayne T. Swank; Mary Beth Adams; Todd C. Rasmussen

2012-01-01

Many engineers and hydrologists use the curve number method to estimate runoff from ungaged watersheds; however, the method does not explicitly account for the influence of season or forest cutting on runoff. This study of observed rainfall and runoff for small, forested watersheds that span the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern United States showed that curve...

Travtek Evaluation Yoked Driver Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-11-01

The purpose of this paper is to present estimates of potential safety benefits resulting from full implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the United States. These estimates were derived by integrating results from a number of d...

Estimating the Number of Organ Donors in Australian Hospitals—Implications for Monitoring Organ Donation Practices

PubMed Central

Pilcher, David; Gladkis, Laura; Arcia, Byron; Bailey, Michael; Cook, David; Cass, Yael; Opdam, Helen

2015-01-01

Background The Australian DonateLife Audit captures information on all deaths which occur in emergency departments, intensive care units and in those recently discharged from intensive care unit. This information provides the opportunity to estimate the number of donors expected, given present consent rates and contemporary donation practices. This may then allow benchmarking of performance between hospitals and jurisdictions. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate the number of donors using data from the DonateLife Audit on the basis of baseline patient characteristics alone. Methods All intubated patient deaths at contributing hospitals were analyzed. Univariate comparisons of donors to nondonors were performed. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate expected donor numbers from data collected between July 2012 and December 2013. This was validated using data from January to April 2014. Results Between July 2012 and April 2014, 6861 intubated patient deaths at 68 hospitals were listed on the DonateLife Audit of whom 553 (8.1%) were organ donors. Factors independently associated with organ donation included age, brain death, neurological diagnoses, chest x-ray findings, PaO2/FiO2, creatinine, alanine transaminase, cancer, cardiac arrest, chronic heart disease, and peripheral vascular disease. A highly discriminatory (area under the receiver operatory characteristic, 0.940 [95% confidence interval, 0.924-0.957]) and well-calibrated prediction model was developed which accurately estimated donor numbers. Three hospitals appeared to have higher numbers of actual donors than expected. Conclusions It is possible to estimate the expected number of organ donors. This may assist benchmarking of donation outcomes and interpretation of changes in donation rates over time. PMID:25919766

Runoff curve numbers for 10 small forested watersheds in the mountains of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Negussie H. Tedela; Steven C. McCutcheon; Todd C. Rasmussen; Richard H. Hawkins; Wayne T. Swank; John L. Campbell; Mary Beth Adams; C. Rhett Jackson; Ernest W. Tollner

2012-01-01

Engineers and hydrologists use the curve number method to estimate runoff from rainfall for different land use and soil conditions; however, large uncertainties occur for estimates from forested watersheds. This investigation evaluates the accuracy and consistency of the method using rainfall-runoff series from 10 small forested-mountainous watersheds in the eastern...

Use of geographic information systems in rabies vaccination campaigns.

PubMed

Grisi-Filho, José Henrique de Hildebrand e; Amaku, Marcos; Dias, Ricardo Augusto; Montenegro Netto, Hildebrando; Paranhos, Noemia Tucunduva; Mendes, Maria Cristina Novo Campos; Ferreira Neto, José Soares; Ferreira, Fernando

2008-12-01

To develop a method to assist in the design and assessment of animal rabies control campaigns. A methodology was developed based on geographic information systems to estimate the animal (canine and feline) population and density per census tract and per subregion (known as "Subprefeituras") in the city of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil) in 2002. The number of vaccination units in a given region was estimated to achieve a certain proportion of vaccination coverage. Census database was used for the human population, as well as estimates ratios of dog:inhabitant and cat:inhabitant. Estimated figures were 1,490,500 dogs and 226,954 cats in the city, i.e. an animal population density of 1138.14 owned animals per km(2). In the 2002 campaign, 926,462 were vaccinated, resulting in a vaccination coverage of 54%. The estimated number of vaccination units to be able to reach a 70%-vaccination coverage, by vaccinating 700 animals per unit on average, was 1,729. These estimates are presented as maps of animal density according to census tracts and "Subprefeituras". The methodology used in the study may be applied in a systematic way to the design and evaluation of rabies vaccination campaigns, enabling the identification of areas of critical vaccination coverage.

Burden of Clostridium difficile infection in the United States.

PubMed

Lessa, Fernanda C; Mu, Yi; Bamberg, Wendy M; Beldavs, Zintars G; Dumyati, Ghinwa K; Dunn, John R; Farley, Monica M; Holzbauer, Stacy M; Meek, James I; Phipps, Erin C; Wilson, Lucy E; Winston, Lisa G; Cohen, Jessica A; Limbago, Brandi M; Fridkin, Scott K; Gerding, Dale N; McDonald, L Clifford

2015-02-26

The magnitude and scope of Clostridium difficile infection in the United States continue to evolve. In 2011, we performed active population- and laboratory-based surveillance across 10 geographic areas in the United States to identify cases of C. difficile infection (stool specimens positive for C. difficile on either toxin or molecular assay in residents ≥ 1 year of age). Cases were classified as community-associated or health care-associated. In a sample of cases of C. difficile infection, specimens were cultured and isolates underwent molecular typing. We used regression models to calculate estimates of national incidence and total number of infections, first recurrences, and deaths within 30 days after the diagnosis of C. difficile infection. A total of 15,461 cases of C. difficile infection were identified in the 10 geographic areas; 65.8% were health care-associated, but only 24.2% had onset during hospitalization. After adjustment for predictors of disease incidence, the estimated number of incident C. difficile infections in the United States was 453,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 397,100 to 508,500). The incidence was estimated to be higher among females (rate ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.25 to 1.27), whites (rate ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.56 to 2.0), and persons 65 years of age or older (rate ratio, 8.65; 95% CI, 8.16 to 9.31). The estimated number of first recurrences of C. difficile infection was 83,000 (95% CI, 57,000 to 108,900), and the estimated number of deaths was 29,300 (95% CI, 16,500 to 42,100). The North American pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type 1 (NAP1) strain was more prevalent among health care-associated infections than among community-associated infections (30.7% vs. 18.8%, P<0.001). C. difficile was responsible for almost half a million infections and was associated with approximately 29,000 deaths in 2011. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Motor unit number estimation and quantitative needle electromyography in stroke patients.

PubMed

Kouzi, Ioanna; Trachani, Eftichia; Anagnostou, Evangelos; Rapidi, Christina-Anastasia; Ellul, John; Sakellaropoulos, George C; Chroni, Elisabeth

2014-12-01

To evaluate the effect of upper motor neuron damage upon motor units' function by means of two separate and supplementary electrophysiological methods. The abductor digiti minimi muscle of the non-paretic and the paretic side was studied in forty-six stroke patients with (a) motor unit number estimation (MUNE) - adapted multiple point stimulation method and (b) computerized quantitative needle electromyography (EMG) assessing the configuration of voluntary recruited motor unit potentials. Main outcome comparisons were focused on differences between non-paretic and paretic side. On the affected hands mean MUNE value was significantly lower and mean area of the surface recorded single motor unit potentials was significantly larger than the corresponding ones on the non-paretic hands. EMG findings did not reveal remarkable differences between the two sides. Neither severity nor chronicity of stroke was related to MUNE or EMG parameters. MUNE results, which suggested reduced motor unit numbers in stroke patients, in conjunction with the normal EMG features in these same muscles has given rise to different interpretations. In a clinical setting, reinnervation type changes in the EMG similar to that occurring in neuronopathies or axonal neuropathies should not be expected in muscles with central neurogenic lesion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motor unit number estimates and neuromuscular transmission in the tibialis anterior of master athletes: evidence that athletic older people are not spared from age-related motor unit remodeling.

PubMed

Piasecki, Mathew; Ireland, Alex; Coulson, Jessica; Stashuk, Dan W; Hamilton-Wright, Andrew; Swiecicka, Agnieszka; Rutter, Martin K; McPhee, Jamie S; Jones, David A

2016-10-01

Muscle motor unit numbers decrease markedly in old age, while remaining motor units are enlarged and can have reduced neuromuscular junction transmission stability. However, it is possible that regular intense physical activity throughout life can attenuate this remodeling. The aim of this study was to compare the number, size, and neuromuscular junction transmission stability of tibialis anterior (TA) motor units in healthy young and older men with those of exceptionally active master runners. The distribution of motor unit potential (MUP) size was determined from intramuscular electromyographic signals recorded in healthy male Young (mean ± SD, 26 ± 5 years), Old (71 ± 4 years) and Master Athletes (69 ± 3 years). Relative differences between groups in numbers of motor units was assessed using two methods, one comparing MUP size and muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) determined with MRI, the other comparing surface recorded MUPs with maximal compound muscle action potentials and commonly known as a "motor unit number estimate (MUNE)". Near fiber (NF) jiggle was measured to assess neuromuscular junction transmission stability. TA CSA did not differ between groups. MUNE values for the Old and Master Athletes were 45% and 40%, respectively, of the Young. Intramuscular MUPs of Old and Master Athletes were 43% and 56% larger than Young. NF jiggle was slightly higher in the Master Athletes, with no difference between Young and Old. These results show substantial and similar motor unit loss and remodeling in Master Athletes and Old individuals compared with Young, which suggests that lifelong training does not attenuate the age-related loss of motor units. © 2016 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.

Generalized analytical model for benthic water flux forced by surface gravity waves

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, J.N.; Mehta, A.J.; Dean, R.G.

2009-01-01

A generalized analytical model for benthic water flux forced by linear surface gravity waves over a series of layered hydrogeologic units is developed by adapting a previous solution for a hydrogeologic unit with an infinite thickness (Case I) to a unit with a finite thickness (Case II) and to a dual-unit system (Case III). The model compares favorably with laboratory observations. The amplitude of wave-forced benthic water flux is shown to be directly proportional to the amplitude of the wave, the permeability of the hydrogeologic unit, and the wave number and inversely proportional to the kinematic viscosity of water. A dimensionless amplitude parameter is introduced and shown to reach a maximum where the product of water depth and the wave number is 1.2. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a benthic water discharge flux to a marine water body. The Case I model estimates an 11.5-cm/d SGD forced by a wave with a 1 s period and 5-cm amplitude in water that is 0.5-m deep. As this wave propagates into a region with a 0.3-m-thick hydrogeologic unit, with a no-flow bottom boundary, the Case II model estimates a 9.7-cm/d wave-forced SGD. As this wave propagates into a region with a 0.2-m-thick hydrogeologic unit over an infinitely thick, more permeable unit, the Case III quasi-confined model estimates a 15.7-cm/d wave-forced SGD. The quasi-confined model has benthic constituent flux implications in coral reef, karst, and clastic regions. Waves may undermine tracer and seepage meter estimates of SGD at some locations. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimates of the Number of People Living with HIV in Italy

PubMed Central

Regine, Vincenza; Stanecki, Karen; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Raimondo, Mariangela; Suligoi, Barbara

2014-01-01

Objective. To estimate the HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Italy with a projection for 2020. Methods. Two methods elaborated by Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) were used: Estimate and Projection Package and Spectrum. Results. A total of 123,000 (115,000–145,000) individuals aged 15 or more were estimated to be living with HIV in Italy at the end of 2012 and the estimated HIV prevalence was 0.28 (0.24–0.32) per 100 residents aged 15 or more. In 2012, the estimated number of new HIV infections among adults was 3,000 (2,700–4,000), and the number of adults in need for ART was 93,000 (80,000–110,000). The projection estimates that 130,000 (110,000–150,000) adults will live with HIV/AIDS in 2020 in Italy. Conclusion. Estimates of PLHIV in Italy stress the high number of PLHIV in need of care and treatment, as well as the need for more information and prevention campaigns. PMID:25136562

Sizing the cannabis market: a demand-side and user-specific approach in seven European countries.

PubMed

van Laar, Margriet; Frijns, Tom; Trautmann, Franz; Lombi, Linda

2013-06-01

Demand-based estimates of total cannabis consumption rarely consider differences among different user types and variation across countries. To describe cannabis consumption patterns and estimate annual consumption for different user types across EU Member States, a web survey in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom (England & Wales) collected data on cannabis use patterns from 3,922 persons who had consumed cannabis at least once in the past year. They were classified into four groups based on their number of use days in the past 12 months: infrequent users or chippers (<11 days), occasional users (11-50 days), regular users (51-250 days) and intensive users (>250 days). User type specific data on typical amounts consumed were matched with data on numbers of users per user type estimated from existing population surveys, taking differences in mode of consumption, age and gender into account. Estimates were supplemented with data from populations of problem users to compensate for under coverage. Results showed remarkably consistent differences among user groups across countries. Both the average number of units consumed per typical use day and the average amount of cannabis consumed per unit increased across user types of increasing frequency of use. In all countries except Portugal, intensive users formed the smallest group of cannabis users but were responsible for the largest part of total annual cannabis consumption. Annual cannabis consumption varied across countries but confidence intervals were wide. Results are compared with previous estimates and discussed in the context of improving estimation methods.

Segmentation and Estimation of the Histological Composition of the Tumor Mass in Computed Tomographic Images of Neuroblastoma

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-25

a CT image, each voxel contains an integer number which is the CT value, in Hounsfield units (HU), of the voxel. Therefore, the standard method of...Task Number Work Unit Number Performing Organization Name(s) and Address(es) Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of...34, Journal of Pediatric Surgery, vol 24(7), pp. 708-711, 1989. [4] I. N. Bankman, editor, Handbook of Medical Image Analysis, Academic Press, London, UK

Development of a Model for Nerve Agent Inhalation in Conscious Rats

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT...their body weight 24 h after exposure. Increased salivation, lacrimation , urination, defecation (SLUD) and mild muscular fasciculation were observed in...Fo r p er so na l u se o nl y. ages. In the United States alone, the young, healthy male is estimated to constitute only 11% (Flegal et al., 2010; U.S

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: Limitations and alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, W.L.

2003-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled stream units. Violations of these assumptions may produce suspect results. To determine possible sources of the assumption violations, I used data on the abundance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Hankin and Reeves' (1988) in a simulation composed of 50,000 repeated, stratified systematic random samples from a spatially clustered distribution. The simulation was used to investigate effects of a range of removal estimates, from 75% to 100% of true fish abundance, on overall stream fish population estimates. The effects of various categories of removal-estimates-to-snorkel-count correlation levels (r = 0.75-1.0) on fish population estimates were also explored. Simulation results indicated that Hankin and Reeves' approach may produce poor results unless removal estimates exceed at least 85% of the true number of fish within sampled units and unless correlations between removal estimates and snorkel counts are at least 0.90. A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is the inclusion of environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative approach is to use snorkeling combined with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities within stream units. As with any method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to evaluate its usefulness, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark for evaluating bias and precision of estimators.

Data Base for a National Mineral-Resource Assessment of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, and Zinc in the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludington, S.D.; Cox, D.P.; McCammon, R.B.

1996-01-01

For this assessment, the conterminous United States was divided into 12 regions Adirondack Mountains, Central and Southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado Plateau, East Central, Great Basin, Great Plains, Lake Superior, Northern Appalachians, Northern Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast, Southern Appalachians, and Southern Basin and Range. The assessment, which was conducted by regional assessment teams of scientists from the USGS, was based on the concepts of permissive tracts and deposit models. Permissive tracts are discrete areas of the United States for which estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits of a particular deposit type were made. A permissive tract is defined by its geographic boundaries such that the probability of deposits of the type delineated occurring outside the boundary is neglible. Deposit models, which are based on a compilation of worldwide literature and on observation, are sets of data in a convenient form that describe a group of deposits which have similar characteristics and that contain information on the common geologic attributes of the deposits and the environments in which they are found. Within each region, the assessment teams delineated permissive tracts for those deposit models that were judged to be appropriate and, when the amount of information warranted, estimated the number of undiscovered deposits. A total of 46 deposit models were used to assess 236 separate permissive tracts. Estimates of undiscovered deposits were limited to a depth of 1 km beneath the surface of the Earth. The estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc were expressed in the form of a probability distribution. Commonly, the number of undiscovered deposits was estimated at the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentiles. A Monte Carlo simulation computer program was used to combine the probability distribution of the number of undiscovered deposits with the grade and tonnage data sets associated with each deposit model to obtain the probability distribution for undiscovered metal.

A Study of Ship Acquisition Cost Estimating in the Naval Sea Systems Command. Appendices

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-10-01

Shipbuilding Is A Heovy Fabrication Industry Pro- ducing Small Numbers Of Expensive, Complex Units Of Output PAGE A-2 (1) Due to its heavy ...estimate future ship construction costs. - A-l 1. SHIPBUILDING IS A HEAVY FABRICATION INDUSTRY PRODUCING SMALL NUMBERS OF EXPENSIVE, COMPLEX...extensively in production line industries such as automotive products and the airframe industry. (1) Due To Its Heavy Construction Orientation

Handbook of solar energy data for south-facing surfaces in the United States. Volume 2: Average hourly and total daily insolation data for 235 localities. Alaska - Montana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.

1980-01-01

Average hourly and daily total insolation estimates for 235 United States locations are presented. Values are presented for a selected number of array tilt angles on a monthly basis. All units are in kilowatt hours per square meter.

Estimating forest attribute parameters for small areas using nearest neighbors techniques

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2012-01-01

Nearest neighbors techniques have become extremely popular, particularly for use with forest inventory data. With these techniques, a population unit prediction is calculated as a linear combination of observations for a selected number of population units in a sample that are most similar, or nearest, in a space of ancillary variables to the population unit requiring...

15 CFR 90.1 - Scope and applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CENSUS, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PROCEDURE FOR CHALLENGING POPULATION ESTIMATES § 90.1 Scope and... number of people residing in states and their governmental units. In general, these estimates are developed by updating the population counts produced in the most recent decennial census with demographic...

Feasibility for an EMS workforce safety and health surveillance system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel treat an estimated 22 million patients a year in the United States. Estimates have placed the EMS workforce at around 900,000 workers, but the precise number is unknown because EMS workers include career and...

Analyzing students’ errors on fractions in the number line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widodo, S.; Ikhwanudin, T.

2018-05-01

The objectives of this study are to know the type of students’ errors when they deal with fractions on the number line. This study used qualitative with a descriptive method, and involved 31 sixth grade students at one of the primary schools in Purwakarta, Indonesia. The results of this study are as follow, there are four types of student’s errors: unit confusion, tick mark interpretation error, partitioning and un partitioning error, and estimation error. We recommend that teachers should: strengthen unit understanding to the students when studying fractions, make students understand about tick mark interpretation, remind student of the importance of partitioning and un-partitioning strategy and teaches effective estimation strategies.

Motor unit number estimates correlate with strength in polio survivors.

PubMed

Sorenson, Eric J; Daube, Jasper R; Windebank, Anthony J

2006-11-01

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) has been proposed as an outcome measure in clinical trials for the motor neuron diseases. One major criticism of MUNE is that it may not represent a clinically meaningful endpoint. We prospectively studied a cohort of polio survivors over a period of 15 years with respect to MUNE and strength. We identified a significant association between thenar MUNE and arm strength, extensor digitorum brevis MUNE and leg strength, and the summated MUNE and global strength of the polio survivors. These findings confirm the clinical relevance of MUNE as an outcome measure in the motor neuron diseases and provide further validation for its use in clinical trial research.

Proposal of a New SI Base Unit for Value. An Hedonic Estimation of the Physical Purchasing Power (PhPP) of Money.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defilla, Steivan

2006-03-01

Hitherto, the purchasing power of money, i.e. its transaction value, has been measured in terms of inflation index numbers and consumer baskets. Consumer baskets are variable phenomena and their use as measurement units for value confuses the measuring with the measurand. We propose an invariant numeraire, or value unit, based on the market value of a Planck energy (1956 MJ). Planck units form a natural system of units independent of any civilization. The hedonic estimation of the PhPP of a currency differentiates energy by product as well as by thermodynamic quality (exergy). Following SI rules, we propose to name the value unit walras (Wal) in honour of the economist Leon Walras (1834 - 1910). One Wal can also be interpreted as the minimum cost of physiological life of a reference person during one year. The study uses official disaggregated Swiss Producer and Consumer Price Index data and estimates the PhPP of the Swiss franc in 2003.

Learning/cost-improvement curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delionback, L. M.

1976-01-01

Review guide is an aid to manager or engineer who must determine production costs for components, systems, or services. Methods are described by which manufacturers may use historical data, task characteristics, and current cost data to estimate unit prices as function of number of units to be produced.

An algorithm to estimate PBL heights from wind profiler data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molod, A.; Salmun, H.

2016-12-01

An algorithm was developed to estimate planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights from hourlyarchived wind profiler data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) sites located throughoutthe central United States from the period 1992-2012. The long period of record allows ananalysis of climatological mean PBL heights as well as some estimates of year to yearvariability. Under clear conditions, summertime averaged hourly time series of PBL heightscompare well with Richardson-number based estimates at the few NPN stations with hourlytemperature measurements. Comparisons with clear sky MERRA estimates show that the windprofiler (WP) and the Richardson number based PBL heights are lower by approximately 250-500 m.The geographical distribution of daily maximum WP PBL heights corresponds well with theexpected distribution based on patterns of surface temperature and soil moisture. Windprofiler PBL heights were also estimated under mostly cloudy conditions, but the WP estimatesshow a smaller clear-cloudy condition difference than either of the other two PBL height estimates.The algorithm presented here is shown to provide a reliable summer, fall and springclimatology of daytime hourly PBL heights throughout the central United States. The reliabilityof the algorithm has prompted its use to obtain hourly PBL heights from other archived windprofiler data located throughout the world.

Estimating Prices of Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

1986-01-01

Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

Measures of food intake in mantled howling monkeys.

PubMed

Reynoso-Cruz, José Eduardo; Rangel-Negrín, Ariadna; Coyohua-Fuentes, Alejandro; Canales-Espinosa, Domingo; Dias, Pedro Américo D

2016-04-01

Food intake (i.e., the amount of food consumed by an individual) is a crucial measure for studying feeding behavior, but its measurement requires high visibility of individuals and long recording sessions, which are often difficult to accomplish under field conditions. As a consequence, studies on the feeding behavior of primates typically do not estimate food intake directly, and focus rather on studying dietary patterns through indirect measures of food intake, such as time spent feeding, number of food bites and food intake rates. The aim of the present study was to determine the validity of these estimators of food intake in mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) by comparing the estimations with the direct measurement of food intake. We recorded 97 feeding episodes of two male and two female adults, during which we determined the number of ingested food units (i.e., number of leaves and number of fruits), the number of bites taken and time spent feeding. After weighing units of food similar to those consumed, we calculated food intake and mean intake rates per food type (ripe fruits, unripe fruits, mature leaves, and young leaves). The number of bites taken by mantled howling monkeys during feeding episodes was strongly related to food intake, and this relationship was not affected by the type of food ingested. In contrast, neither time spent feeding nor food ingestion rate were related to food intake. These results suggest that the number of bites could be used as a valid proxy to study food intake in this species, whereas the other two measures are likely to yield inaccurate estimates of food intake.

Estimating the cost of production stoppage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delionback, L. M.

1979-01-01

Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

A modified cluster-sampling method for post-disaster rapid assessment of needs.

PubMed Central

Malilay, J.; Flanders, W. D.; Brogan, D.

1996-01-01

The cluster-sampling method can be used to conduct rapid assessment of health and other needs in communities affected by natural disasters. It is modelled on WHO's Expanded Programme on Immunization method of estimating immunization coverage, but has been modified to provide (1) estimates of the population remaining in an area, and (2) estimates of the number of people in the post-disaster area with specific needs. This approach differs from that used previously in other disasters where rapid needs assessments only estimated the proportion of the population with specific needs. We propose a modified n x k survey design to estimate the remaining population, severity of damage, the proportion and number of people with specific needs, the number of damaged or destroyed and remaining housing units, and the changes in these estimates over a period of time as part of the survey. PMID:8823962

The Dose–Response Relationship Between Tobacco Education Advertising and Calls to Quitlines in the United States, March–June, 2012

PubMed Central

Alexander, Robert L.; Shafer, Paul; Mann, Nathan; Malarcher, Ann; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Introduction We estimated changes in call volume in the United States in response to increases in advertising doses of the Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign, the first federal national tobacco education campaign, which aired for 12 weeks from March 19 to June 10, 2012. We also measured the effectiveness of ad taglines that promoted calls directly with a quitline number (1-800-QUIT-NOW) and indirectly with a cessation help website (Smokefree.gov). Methods Multivariate regressions estimated the weekly number of calls to 1–800-QUIT-NOW by area code as a function of weekly market-level gross rating points (GRPs) from CDC’s Tips campaign in 2012. The number of quitline calls attributable solely to Tips was predicted. Results For quitline-tagged ads, an additional 100 television GRPs per week was associated with an increase of 89 calls per week in a typical area code in the United States (P < .001). The same unit increase in advertising GRPs for ads tagged with Smokefree.gov was associated with an increase of 29 calls per week in any given area code (P < .001). We estimated that the Tips campaign was responsible for more than 170,000 additional calls to 1–800-QUIT-NOW during the campaign and that it would have generated approximately 140,000 additional calls if all ads were tagged with 1–800-QUIT-NOW. Conclusion For campaign planners, these results make it possible to estimate 1) the likely impact of tobacco prevention media buys and 2) the additional quitline capacity needed at the national level should future campaigns of similar scale use 1–800-QUIT-NOW taglines exclusively. PMID:26542143

The Dose-Response Relationship Between Tobacco Education Advertising and Calls to Quitlines in the United States, March-June, 2012.

PubMed

Davis, Kevin C; Alexander, Robert L; Shafer, Paul; Mann, Nathan; Malarcher, Ann; Zhang, Lei

2015-11-05

We estimated changes in call volume in the United States in response to increases in advertising doses of the Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign, the first federal national tobacco education campaign, which aired for 12 weeks from March 19 to June 10, 2012. We also measured the effectiveness of ad taglines that promoted calls directly with a quitline number (1-800-QUIT-NOW) and indirectly with a cessation help website (Smokefree.gov). Multivariate regressions estimated the weekly number of calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW by area code as a function of weekly market-level gross rating points (GRPs) from CDC's Tips campaign in 2012. The number of quitline calls attributable solely to Tips was predicted. For quitline-tagged ads, an additional 100 television GRPs per week was associated with an increase of 89 calls per week in a typical area code in the United States (P < .001). The same unit increase in advertising GRPs for ads tagged with Smokefree.gov was associated with an increase of 29 calls per week in any given area code (P < .001). We estimated that the Tips campaign was responsible for more than 170,000 additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW during the campaign and that it would have generated approximately 140,000 additional calls if all ads were tagged with 1-800-QUIT-NOW. For campaign planners, these results make it possible to estimate 1) the likely impact of tobacco prevention media buys and 2) the additional quitline capacity needed at the national level should future campaigns of similar scale use 1-800-QUIT-NOW taglines exclusively.

78 FR 36582 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comments Requested; Extension With...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-18

... Richard L. Nagy, Unit Chief, Domestic Strategic Intelligence Unit, Office of Intelligence, Warning, Plans...' estimate of the burden of the proposed collection of information, including the validity of the methodology... number: None. Component: Intelligence Division, Drug Enforcement Administration, U.S. Department of...

Estimating Planetary Boundary Layer Heights from NOAA Profiler Network Wind Profiler Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea M.; Salmun, H.; Dempsey, M

2015-01-01

An algorithm was developed to estimate planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights from hourly archived wind profiler data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) sites located throughout the central United States. Unlike previous studies, the present algorithm has been applied to a long record of publicly available wind profiler signal backscatter data. Under clear conditions, summertime averaged hourly time series of PBL heights compare well with Richardson-number based estimates at the few NPN stations with hourly temperature measurements. Comparisons with clear sky reanalysis based estimates show that the wind profiler PBL heights are lower by approximately 250-500 m. The geographical distribution of daily maximum PBL heights corresponds well with the expected distribution based on patterns of surface temperature and soil moisture. Wind profiler PBL heights were also estimated under mostly cloudy conditions, and are generally higher than both the Richardson number based and reanalysis PBL heights, resulting in a smaller clear-cloudy condition difference. The algorithm presented here was shown to provide a reliable summertime climatology of daytime hourly PBL heights throughout the central United States.

Mixing soil samples across experimental units ignores uncertainty and generates falsely precise estimates of soil biota effects on plants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A number of recent soil biota studies have deviated from the standard experimental approach of generating a distinct data value for each experimental unit (e.g. Yang et al., 2013; Gundale et al., 2014). Instead, these studies have mixed together soils from multiple experimental units (i.e. sites wi...

Research on Anoplophora glabripennis in the United States

Treesearch

Robert A. Haack

2003-01-01

In the mid-1990s it was estimated that more than 400 exotic (non-native) forest insects had already become established in the United States (HAACK and BYLER, 1993; MATTSON et al., 1994; NIEMELA and MATTSON, 1996). This number has continued to grow with new exotics discovered annually in the United States (HAACK, 2002; HAACK and POLAND, 2001; HAACK et al., 2002). One...

Mapping Air Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Michael P.; Hunt, Paul; Weiß, Konrad

2018-05-01

"Air population" refers to the total number of people flying above the earth at any point in time. The total number of passengers can then be estimated by multiplying the number of seats for each aircraft by the current seat occupancy rate. Using this method, the estimated air population is determined by state for the airspace over the United States. In the interactive, real-time mapping system, maps are provided to show total air population, the density of air population (air population / area of state), and the ratio of air population to ground population.

EPA Assessment of Risks from Radon in Homes

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This 2003 document will serve as a technical basis for EPA’s estimates of risk from radon in homes. It provides estimates of the risk per unit exposure and projects the number of fatal lung cancers occurring in the U.S. population each year due to radon.

Cancer Burden in the HIV-Infected Population in the United States

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Hall, H. Irene; Chaturvedi, Anil K.; Bhatia, Kishor; Uldrick, Thomas S.; Yarchoan, Robert; Goedert, James J.; Engels, Eric A.

2011-01-01

Background Effective antiretroviral therapy has reduced the risk of AIDS and dramatically prolonged the survival of HIV-infected people in the United States. Consequently, an increasing number of HIV-infected people are at risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers that typically occur at older ages. We estimated the annual number of cancers in the HIV-infected population, both with and without AIDS, in the United States. Methods Incidence rates for individual cancer types were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study by linking 15 HIV and cancer registries in the United States. Estimated counts of the US HIV-infected and AIDS populations were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data. We obtained estimated counts of AIDS-defining (ie, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers in the US AIDS population during 1991–2005 by multiplying cancer incidence rates and AIDS population counts, stratified by year, age, sex, race and ethnicity, transmission category, and AIDS-relative time. We tested trends in counts and standardized incidence rates using linear regression models. We multiplied overall cancer rates and HIV-only (HIV infected, without AIDS) population counts, available from 34 US states during 2004–2007, to estimate cancers in the HIV-only population. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The US AIDS population expanded fourfold from 1991 to 2005 (96 179 to 413 080) largely because of an increase in the number of people aged 40 years or older. During 1991–2005, an estimated 79 656 cancers occurred in the AIDS population. From 1991–1995 to 2001–2005, the estimated number of AIDS-defining cancers decreased by greater than threefold (34 587 to 10 325 cancers; Ptrend < .001), whereas non-AIDS-defining cancers increased by approximately threefold (3193 to 10 059 cancers; Ptrend < .001). From 1991–1995 to 2001–2005, estimated counts increased for anal (206 to 1564 cancers), liver (116 to 583 cancers), prostate (87 to 759 cancers), and lung cancers (875 to 1882 cancers), and Hodgkin lymphoma (426 to 897 cancers). In the HIV-only population in 34 US states, an estimated 2191 non-AIDS-defining cancers occurred during 2004–2007, including 454 lung, 166 breast, and 154 anal cancers. Conclusions Over a 15-year period (1991–2005), increases in non-AIDS-defining cancers were mainly driven by growth and aging of the AIDS population. This growing burden requires targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies. PMID:21483021

Estimating Logistics Burdens in Support of Acquisition Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to a penalty...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING...ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School,Monterey,CA,93943 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING

ÖGRO survey on radiotherapy capacity in Austria : Status quo and estimation of future demands.

PubMed

Zurl, Brigitte; Bayerl, Anja; De Vries, Alexander; Geinitz, Hans; Hawliczek, Robert; Knocke-Abulesz, Tomas-Henrik; Lukas, Peter; Pötter, Richard; Raunik, Wolfgang; Scholz, Brigitte; Schratter-Sehn, Annemarie; Sedlmayer, Felix; Seewald, Dietmar; Selzer, Edgar; Kapp, Karin S

2018-04-01

A comprehensive evaluation of the current national and regional radiotherapy capacity in Austria with an estimation of demands for 2020 and 2030 was performed by the Austrian Society for Radiation Oncology, Radiobiology and Medical Radiophysics (ÖGRO). All Austrian centers provided data on the number of megavoltage (MV) units, treatment series, fractions, percentage of retreatments and complex treatment techniques as well as the daily operating hours for the year 2014. In addition, waiting times until the beginning of radiotherapy were prospectively recorded over the first quarter of 2015. National and international epidemiological prediction data were used to estimate future demands. For a population of 8.51 million, 43 MV units were at disposal. In 14 radiooncological centers, a total of 19,940 series with a mean number of 464 patients per MV unit/year and a mean fraction number of 20 (range 16-24) per case were recorded. The average re-irradiation ratio was 14%. The survey on waiting times until start of treatment showed provision shortages in 40% of centers with a mean waiting time of 13.6 days (range 0.5-29.3 days) and a mean maximum waiting time of 98.2 days. Of all centers, 21% had no or only a limited ability to deliver complex treatment techniques. Predictions for 2020 and 2030 indicate an increased need in the overall number of MV units to a total of 63 and 71, respectively. This ÖGRO survey revealed major regional differences in radiooncological capacity. Considering epidemiological developments, an aggravation of the situation can be expected shortly. This analysis serves as a basis for improved public regional health care planning.

75 FR 78263 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Extension of an Existing Information Collection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-15

... of information collection under review; Form G- 646, Sworn Statement of Refugee Applying for... the Form/Collection: Sworn Statement of Refugee Applying for Admission to the United States. (3... the applicants to the United States as refugees. (5) An estimate of the total number of respondents...

Scientific Method K-6, Elementary Science Unit No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khouri, John W.

Contained in this unit are activities designed to develop science process skills for Grades K through 6. A chart shows how the activities for each grade relate to the operations of classifying, inferring, observing, predicting, interpreting data, estimating, measuring, using numbers, experimenting, and controlling variables. Each activity is…

The Educational Rights of Unauthorized Immigrant Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russo, Charles J.

2012-01-01

A 2007 report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2007) estimated that 12 million "unauthorized immigrants" lived in the United States, defining the term "unauthorized immigrants" as "foreign citizens residing in the United States illegally." Without providing exact numbers, in his 2011 State of the Union address, President Obama addressed…

Recycled Cell Phones - A Treasure Trove of Valuable Metals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Daniel E.

2006-01-01

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fact Sheet examines the potential value of recycling the metals found in obsolete cell phones. Cell phones seem ubiquitous in the United States and commonplace throughout most of the world. There were approximately 1 billion cell phones in use worldwide in 2002. In the United States, the number of cell phone subscribers increased from 340,000 in 1985 to 180 million in 2004. Worldwide, cell phone sales have increased from slightly more than 100 million units per year in 1997 to an estimated 779 million units per year in 2005. Cell phone sales are projected to exceed 1 billion units per year in 2009, with an estimated 2.6 billion cell phones in use by the end of that year. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimated that, by 2005, as many as 130 million cell phones would be retired annually in the United States. The nonprofit organization INFORM, Inc., anticipated that, by 2005, a total of 500 million obsolete cell phones would have accumulated in consumers' desk drawers, store rooms, or other storage, awaiting disposal. Typically, cell phones are used for only 1 1/2 years before being replaced. Less than 1 percent of the millions of cell phones retired and discarded annually are recycled. When large numbers of cell phones become obsolete, large quantities of valuable metals end up either in storage or in landfills. The amount of metals potentially recoverable would make a significant addition to total metals recovered from recycling in the United States and would supplement virgin metals derived from mining.

Estimating numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, K.A.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Moody, D.

2001-01-01

For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), minimum population size and allowable numbers of human-caused mortalities have been calculated as a function of the number of unique females with cubs-of-the-year (FCUB) seen during a 3- year period. This approach underestimates the total number of FCUB, thereby biasing estimates of population size and sustainable mortality. Also, it does not permit calculation of valid confidence bounds. Many statistical methods can resolve or mitigate these problems, but there is no universal best method. Instead, relative performances of different methods can vary with population size, sample size, and degree of heterogeneity among sighting probabilities for individual animals. We compared 7 nonparametric estimators, using Monte Carlo techniques to assess performances over the range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population. Our goal was to estimate the number of FCUB present in the population each year. Our evaluation differed from previous comparisons of such estimators by including sample coverage methods and by treating individual sightings, rather than sample periods, as the sample unit. Consequently, our conclusions also differ from earlier studies. Recommendations regarding estimators and necessary sample sizes are presented, together with estimates of annual numbers of FCUB in the Yellowstone population with bootstrap confidence bounds.

[Statistical (Poisson) motor unit number estimation. Methodological aspects and normal results in the extensor digitorum brevis muscle of healthy subjects].

PubMed

Murga Oporto, L; Menéndez-de León, C; Bauzano Poley, E; Núñez-Castaín, M J

Among the differents techniques for motor unit number estimation (MUNE) there is the statistical one (Poisson), in which the activation of motor units is carried out by electrical stimulation and the estimation performed by means of a statistical analysis based on the Poisson s distribution. The study was undertaken in order to realize an approximation to the MUNE Poisson technique showing a coprehensible view of its methodology and also to obtain normal results in the extensor digitorum brevis muscle (EDB) from a healthy population. One hundred fourteen normal volunteers with age ranging from 10 to 88 years were studied using the MUNE software contained in a Viking IV system. The normal subjects were divided into two age groups (10 59 and 60 88 years). The EDB MUNE from all them was 184 49. Both, the MUNE and the amplitude of the compound muscle action potential (CMAP) were significantly lower in the older age group (p< 0.0001), showing the MUNE a better correlation with age than CMAP amplitude ( 0.5002 and 0.4142, respectively p< 0.0001). Statistical MUNE method is an important way for the assessment to the phisiology of the motor unit. The value of MUNE correlates better with the neuromuscular aging process than CMAP amplitude does.

ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF INFECTIOUS BACTERIAL OR VIRAL PARTICLES BY THE DILUTION METHOD

PubMed Central

Seligman, Stephen J.; Mickey, M. Ray

1964-01-01

Seligman, Stephen J. (University of California, Los Angeles), and M. Ray Mickey. Estimation of the number of infectious bacterial or viral particles by the dilution method. J. Bacteriol. 88:31–36. 1964.—For viral or bacterial systems in which discrete foci of infection are not obtainable, it is possible to obtain an estimate of the number of infectious particles by use of the quantal response if the assay system is such that one infectious particle can elicit the response. Unfortunately, the maximum likelihood estimate is difficult to calculate, but, by the use of a modification of Haldane's approximation, it is possible to construct a table which facilitates calculation of both the average number of infectious particles and its relative error. Additional advantages of the method are that the number of test units per dilution can be varied, the dilutions need not bear any fixed relation to each other, and the one-particle hypothesis can be readily tested. PMID:14197902

The Utility of Handheld Programmable Calculators in Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Estimation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

are available for extended mem - ory, hardcopy printout, video interface, and special application software. Any calculator of comparable memory could...condi- tioning system. OG Total number of engine, air turbine motor (ATM) and auxiliary power unit (APU) driven generator/alternators. OHP Total number

Practical sampling plans for Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera: Apidae) colonies and apiaries.

PubMed

Lee, K V; Moon, R D; Burkness, E C; Hutchison, W D; Spivak, M

2010-08-01

The parasitic mite Varroa destructor Anderson & Trueman (Acari: Varroidae) is arguably the most detrimental pest of the European-derived honey bee, Apis mellifera L. Unfortunately, beekeepers lack a standardized sampling plan to make informed treatment decisions. Based on data from 31 commercial apiaries, we developed sampling plans for use by beekeepers and researchers to estimate the density of mites in individual colonies or whole apiaries. Beekeepers can estimate a colony's mite density with chosen level of precision by dislodging mites from approximately to 300 adult bees taken from one brood box frame in the colony, and they can extrapolate to mite density on a colony's adults and pupae combined by doubling the number of mites on adults. For sampling whole apiaries, beekeepers can repeat the process in each of n = 8 colonies, regardless of apiary size. Researchers desiring greater precision can estimate mite density in an individual colony by examining three, 300-bee sample units. Extrapolation to density on adults and pupae may require independent estimates of numbers of adults, of pupae, and of their respective mite densities. Researchers can estimate apiary-level mite density by taking one 300-bee sample unit per colony, but should do so from a variable number of colonies, depending on apiary size. These practical sampling plans will allow beekeepers and researchers to quantify mite infestation levels and enhance understanding and management of V. destructor.

Homeschooling in the United States: 2012. NCES 2016-096

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redford, Jeremy; Battle, Danielle; Bielick, Stacey

2016-01-01

Since 1999, the National Household Education Surveys Program (NHES), conducted by the U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in the Institute of Education Sciences, has collected nationally representative data that can be used to estimate the number of homeschooled students in the United States. This report…

77 FR 77073 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-31

... Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; NSPS for Fossil Fuel Fired Steam... www.regulations.gov . Title: NSPS for Fossil Fuel Fired Steam Generating Units(Renewal). ICR Numbers.... Respondents/Affected Entities: Owners or operators of fossil fuel fired steam generating units. Estimated...

Data sources and compilation: Chapter 27 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, James W.

2007-01-01

Geologic, production, and exploration/discovery-history data are used by the U.S. Geological Survey to aid in the assessment of petroleum resources. These data, as well as the broad knowledge and experience of the assessing geologists, are synthesized to provide, for each assessment unit, geologic and exploration models upon which estimates are made of the number and sizes of undiscovered accumulations for conventional assessment units or number and total recoverable volumes of untested cells for continuous assessment units (input data for resource calculations). Quantified geologic information and trends in production and exploration/discovery-history data with respect to time and exploration effort provide guides for the estimating parameters of variables recorded on the input-data forms (input data) used to calculate petroleum resources. An Assessment Review Team reviews proposed geologic and exploration models and input data for each assessment unit in formal assessment meetings. The Assessment Review Team maintains the accuracy and consistency of the assessment procedure during the formal assessment meetings.

DoD Influenza Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-28

controls – No analyses by flu subtype (over 90% of flu samples were H1N1) 21 • Adjusted Estimates of Vaccine Effectiveness – Population: Service...DoD Influenza Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center (AFHSC) Naval Health Research Center (NHRC) United... Vaccine Effectiveness 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK

PEAS AND PARTICLES, TEACHER'S GUIDE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1966

THIS TEACHER'S GUIDE IS DESIGNED FOR USE WITH AN ELEMENTARY SCIENCE STUDY UNIT ON "PEAS AND PARTICLES" WHICH DEALS WITH LARGE NUMBERS AND ESTIMATIONS. ITS PURPOSE IS TO GIVE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CHILDREN AN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT LARGE NUMBERS MEAN THROUGH INFORMAL ACTIVITIES INVOLVING FAMILIAR OBJECTS. THE MATERIAL HAS BEEN FOUND SUITABLE…

Study estimates number of U.S. women living with metastatic breast cancer

Cancer.gov

A new study shows that the number of women in the United States living with distant metastatic breast cancer (MBC), the most severe form of the disease, is growing. This is likely due to the aging of the U.S. population and improvements in treatment.

Curve Numbers for Nine Mountainous Eastern United States Watersheds: Seasonal Variation and Forest Cutting

EPA Science Inventory

Many engineers and hydrologists use the curve number method to estimate runoff from ungaged watersheds; however, the method does not explicitly account for the influence of season or forest cutting on runoff. This study of observed rainfall and runoff for small, forested watershe...

Highway safety issues of older drivers in Kansas : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

The older population (>65 years) numbered 36.8 million in the United States in 2005. By 2030, the number is estimated to be 71.5 million, almost twice as many. An increase in the older population means an increase in older drivers as well. As a resul...

Estimating the Number of Low-Income Americans Exposed to Household Air Pollution from Burning Solid Fuels

PubMed Central

Rogalsky, Derek K.; Mendola, Pauline; Metts, Tricia A.

2014-01-01

Background: Exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from inefficient biomass and coal stoves kills nearly 4 million people every year worldwide. HAP is an environmental risk associated with poverty that affects an estimated 3 billion people mostly in low- and middle-income countries. Objectives: Our goal was to estimate the number of low-income Americans exposed to potentially health-damaging concentrations of HAP. Methods: We mapped county-level data for the percentage of households using wood, coal, and/or coke as their primary heating fuel along with percent of the population below the federal poverty level. Using U.S. Census data and the likelihood of fugitive emissions as reported in the literature, we estimated the number of low-income Americans potentially exposed to HAP. Results: Solid fuel is the primary heating source for > 2.5 million U.S. households, or 6.5 million people. The mapping exercise showed several rural areas, primarily in the northern and western regions, that have high levels of solid-fuel use and poverty. We then identified 117 counties with high co-incident poverty and solid-fuel use as high-priority counties for research into potential health risks from HAP. We estimate that between 500,000 and 600,000 low-income people in the United States are likely exposed to HAP from burning solid fuels within their homes. Conclusion: HAP occurs within the United States and should be further investigated for adverse health risks, especially among those living in areas with rural poverty. Citation: Rogalsky DK, Mendola P, Metts TA, Martin WJ II. 2014. Estimating the number of low-income Americans exposed to household air pollution from burning solid fuels. Environ Health Perspect 122:806–810; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306709 PMID:24833615

Estimating carrying capacity with simultaneous nutritional constraints.

Treesearch

Thomas A. Hanley; James J. Rogers

1989-01-01

A new procedure is presented for estimating carrying capacity (the number of animals of a given species that can be supported per unit area of habitat) on the basis of two simultaneous nutritional constraints. It requires specifying the quantity (bio-mass) and quality (chemical composition or digestibility) of available food and the nutritional requirements of the...

Estimating Achievement Gaps from Test Scores Reported in Ordinal "Proficiency" Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Andrew D.; Reardon, Sean F.

2012-01-01

Test scores are commonly reported in a small number of ordered categories. Examples of such reporting include state accountability testing, Advanced Placement tests, and English proficiency tests. This paper introduces and evaluates methods for estimating achievement gaps on a familiar standard-deviation-unit metric using data from these ordered…

Do Indonesian Children's Experiences with Large Currency Units Facilitate Magnitude Estimation of Long Temporal Periods?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheek, Kim A.

2017-01-01

Ideas about temporal (and spatial) scale impact students' understanding across science disciplines. Learners have difficulty comprehending the long time periods associated with natural processes because they have no referent for the magnitudes involved. When people have a good "feel" for quantity, they estimate cardinal number magnitude…

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010.

PubMed

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-06-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error.

Democracy Assistance in the Gulf

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

Hesitant Bedfellows: The German Stiftungen and Party Aid in Africa. Working Paper, Coventry, UK: Centre for the Study of Globalisation and...this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data...PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) stitute for the Study of

Explaining the heterogeneity in average costs per HIV/AIDS patient in Nigeria: The role of supply-side and service delivery characteristics

PubMed Central

Amanze, Ogbonna O.; La Hera-Fuentes, Gina; Silverman-Retana, Omar; Contreras-Loya, David; Ashefor, Gregory A.; Ogungbemi, Kayode M.

2018-01-01

Objective We estimated the average annual cost per patient of ART per facility (unit cost) in Nigeria, described the variation in costs across facilities, and identified factors associated with this variation. Methods We used facility-level data of 80 facilities in Nigeria, collected between December 2014 and May 2015. We estimated unit costs at each facility as the ratio of total costs (the sum of costs of staff, recurrent inputs and services, capital, training, laboratory tests, and antiretroviral and TB treatment drugs) divided by the annual number of patients. We applied linear regressions to estimate factors associated with ART cost per patient. Results The unit ART cost in Nigeria was $157 USD nationally and the facility-level mean was $231 USD. The study found a wide variability in unit costs across facilities. Variations in costs were explained by number of patients, level of care, task shifting (shifting tasks from doctors to less specialized staff, mainly nurses, to provide ART) and provider´s competence. The study illuminated the potentially important role that management practices can play in improving the efficiency of ART services. Conclusions Our study identifies characteristics of services associated with the most efficient implementation of ART services in Nigeria. These results will help design efficient program scale-up to deliver comprehensive HIV services in Nigeria by distinguishing features linked to lower unit costs. PMID:29718906

Head injuries presenting to emergency departments in the United States from 1990 to 1999 for ice hockey, soccer, and football.

PubMed

Delaney, J Scott

2004-03-01

To examine the number and rates of head injuries occurring in the community as a whole for the team sports of ice hockey, soccer, and football by analyzing data from patients presenting to US emergency departments (EDs) from 1990 to 1999. Retrospective analysis. Data compiled for the US Consumer Product Safety Commission using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System were used to generate estimates for the total number of head injuries, concussions, internal head injuries, and skull fractures occurring on a national level from the years 1990 to 1999. These data were combined with yearly participation figures to generate rates of injuries presenting to the ED for each sport. There were an estimated 17,008 head injuries from ice hockey, 86,697 from soccer, and 204,802 from football that presented to US EDs from 1990 to 1999. The total number of concussions presenting to EDs in the United States over the same period was estimated to be 4820 from ice hockey, 21,715 from soccer, and 68,861 from football. While the rates of head injuries, concussions, and combined concussions/internal head injuries/skull fractures presenting to EDs per 10,000 players were not always statistically similar for all 3 sports in each year data were available, they were usually comparable. While the total numbers of head injuries, concussions, and combined concussions/skull fractures/internal head injuries presenting to EDs in the United States are different for ice hockey, soccer, and football for the years studied, the yearly rates for these injuries are comparable among all 3 sports.

Predicted shortage of vascular surgeons in the United Kingdom: A matter for debate?

PubMed

Harkin, D W; Beard, J D; Shearman, C P; Wyatt, M G

2016-10-01

Vascular surgery became a new independent surgical specialty in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013. In this matter for debate we discuss the question, is there a "shortage of vascular surgeons in the United Kingdom?" We used data derived from the "Vascular Surgery United Kingdom Workforce Survey 2014", NHS Employers Electronic Staff Records (ESR), and the National Vascular Registry (NVR) surgeon-level public report to estimate current and predict future workforce requirements. We estimate there are approximately 458 Consultant Vascular Surgeons for the current UK population of 63 million, or 1 per 137,000 population. In several UK Regions there are a large number of relatively small teams (3 or less) of vascular surgeons working in separate NHS Trusts in close geographical proximity. In developed countries, both the number and complexity of vascular surgery procedures (open and endovascular) per capita population is increasing, and concerns have been raised that demand cannot be met without a significant expansion in numbers of vascular surgeons. Additional workforce demand arises from the impact of population growth and changes in surgical work-patterns with respect to gender, working-life-balance and 7-day services. We predict a future shortage of Consultant Vascular Surgeons in the UK and recommend an increase in training numbers and an expansion in the UK Consultant Vascular Surgeon workforce to accommodate population growth, facilitate changes in work-patterns and to create safe sustainable services. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination in the United States, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Gastañaduy, Paul A; Paul, Prabasaj; Fiebelkorn, Amy Parker; Redd, Susan B; Lopman, Ben A; Gambhir, Manoj; Wallace, Gregory S

2017-04-01

We assessed the status of measles elimination in the United States using outbreak notification data. Measles transmissibility was assessed by estimation of the reproduction number, R, the average number of secondary cases per infection, using 4 methods; elimination requires maintaining R at <1. Method 1 estimates R as 1 minus the proportion of cases that are imported. Methods 2 and 3 estimate R by fitting a model of the spread of infection to data on the sizes and generations of chains of transmission, respectively. Method 4 assesses transmissibility before public health interventions, by estimating R for the case with the earliest symptom onset in each cluster (Rindex). During 2001-2014, R and Rindex estimates obtained using methods 1-4 were 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 0.76), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.70), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49), and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.69), respectively. Year-to-year variability in the values of R and Rindex and an increase in transmissibility in recent years were noted with all methods. Elimination of endemic measles transmission is maintained in the United States. A suggested increase in measles transmissibility since elimination warrants continued monitoring and emphasizes the importance of high measles vaccination coverage throughout the population. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Temporal Trends in Hospitalization for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure in the United States, 1998–2011

PubMed Central

Agarwal, Sunil K.; Wruck, Lisa; Quibrera, Miguel; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Loehr, Laura R.; Chang, Patricia P.; Rosamond, Wayne D.; Wright, Jacqueline; Heiss, Gerardo; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Estimates of the numbers and rates of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) hospitalization are central to understanding health-care utilization and efforts to improve patient care. We comprehensively estimated the frequency, rate, and trends of ADHF hospitalization in the United States. Based on Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study surveillance adjudicating 12,450 eligible hospitalizations during 2005–2010, we developed prediction models for ADHF separately for 3 International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 428 discharge diagnosis groups: 428 primary, 428 nonprimary, or 428 absent. We applied the models to data from the National Inpatient Sample (11.5 million hospitalizations of persons aged ≥55 years with eligible ICD-9-CM codes), an all-payer, 20% probability sample of US community hospitals. The average estimated number of ADHF hospitalizations per year was 1.76 million (428 primary, 0.80 million; 428 nonprimary, 0.83 million; 428 absent, 0.13 million). During 1998–2004, the rate of ADHF hospitalization increased by 2.0%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8, 2.5) versus a 1.4%/year (95% CI: 0.8, 2.1) increase in code 428 primary hospitalizations (P < 0.001). In contrast, during 2005–2011, numbers of ADHF hospitalizations were stable (−0.5%/year; 95% CI: −1.4, 0.3), while the numbers of 428-primary hospitalizations decreased by −1.5%/year (95% CI: −2.2, −0.8) (P for contrast = 0.03). In conclusion, the estimated number of hospitalizations with ADHF is approximately 2 times higher than the number of hospitalizations with ICD-9-CM code 428 in the primary position. The trend increased more steeply prior to 2005 and was relatively flat after 2005. PMID:26895710

Survey of United States Army Reserve (USAR) Troop Program Unit (TPU) soldiers 1989. Tabulation of Questionnaire Responses: Longitudinal Sample: Junior Enlisted Stayers from 1988 to 1989. 1989 Questionnaire Responses

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-30

AD-A237 531 1989 SURVEY OF UNITED STATES ARMY RESERVE (USAR) TROOP PROGRAM UNIT (TPU) SOLDIERS Tabulation of Questionnaire Responses: Longitudinal...Program Unit (TPU) Soldiers . The Tabulation Volumes list questionnaire items and the percent of respondents (weighted to population estimates) who have...Reserve population eligible for selection was defined by the number of personnel rec,,rds on a Dpeber 1988 SIDPERS data base; this totalled 280,265

On the calculation of dynamic and heat loads on a three-dimensional body in a hypersonic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocharov, A. N.; Bityurin, V. A.; Evstigneev, N. M.; Fortov, V. E.; Golovin, N. N.; Petrovskiy, V. P.; Ryabkov, O. I.; Teplyakov, I. O.; Shustov, A. A.; Solomonov, Yu S.

2018-01-01

We consider a three-dimensional body in a hypersonic flow at zero angle of attack. Our aim is to estimate heat and aerodynamic loads on specific body elements. We are considering a previously developed code to solve coupled heat- and mass-transfer problem. The change of the surface shape is taken into account by formation of the iterative process for the wall material ablation. The solution is conducted on the multi-graphics-processing-unit (multi-GPU) cluster. Five Mach number points are considered, namely for M = 20-28. For each point we estimate body shape after surface ablation, heat loads on the surface and aerodynamic loads on the whole body and its elements. The latter is done using Gauss-type quadrature on the surface of the body. The comparison of the results for different Mach numbers is performed. We also estimate the efficiency of the Navier-Stokes code on multi-GPU and central processing unit architecture for the coupled heat and mass transfer problem.

Visual Impairment and Blindness Avoided with Ranibizumab in Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Whites with Diabetic Macular Edema in the United States.

PubMed

Varma, Rohit; Bressler, Neil M; Doan, Quan V; Danese, Mark; Dolan, Chantal M; Lee, Abraham; Turpcu, Adam

2015-05-01

To estimate visual impairment (VI) and blindness avoided with intravitreal ranibizumab 0.3 mg treatment for central-involved diabetic macular edema (DME) among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white individuals in the United States. Population-based model simulating visual acuity (VA) outcomes over 2 years after diagnosis and treatment of DME. Visual acuity changes with and without ranibizumab were based on data from the RISE, RIDE, and DRCR Network trials. For the better-seeing eye, VA outcomes included VI, defined as worse than 20/40 in the better-seeing eye, and blindness, defined as VA of 20/200 or worse in the better-seeing eye. Incidence of 1 or both eyes with central-involved DME in 2010 were estimated based on the 2010 United States population, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and 1-year central-involved DME incidence rate. Sixty-one percent of incident individuals had bilateral DME and 39% had unilateral DME, but DME could develop in the fellow eye. Cases of VI and blindness avoided with ranibizumab treatment. Among approximately 102 million Hispanic and non-Hispanic white individuals in the United States 45 years of age and older in 2010, an estimated 37 274 had central-involved DME and VI eligible for ranibizumab treatment. Compared with no ranibizumab treatment, the model predicted that ranibizumab 0.3 mg every 4 weeks would reduce the number of individuals with VI from 11 438 (95% simulation interval [SI], 7249-16 077) to 6304 (95% SI, 3921-8981), a 45% (95% SI, 36%-53%) reduction at 2 years. Ranibizumab would reduce the number of incident eyes with VA worse than 20/40 from 16 910 (95% SI, 10 729-23 577) to 9361 (95% SI, 5839-13 245), a 45% (95% SI, 38%-51%) reduction. Ranibizumab was estimated to reduce the number of individuals with legal blindness by 75% (95% SI, 58%-88%) and the number of incident eyes with VA of 20/200 or worse by 76% (95% SI, 63%-87%). This model suggests that ranibizumab 0.3 mg every 4 weeks substantially reduces prevalence of VI and legal blindness 2 years after initiating treatment among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white individuals in the United States with central-involved DME that has caused vision loss. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Axonal loss in patients with inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy as determined by motor unit number estimation and MUNIX.

PubMed

Paramanathan, Sansuthan; Tankisi, Hatice; Andersen, Henning; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders

2016-01-01

This study quantifies functioning axons and reinnervation by applying two methods multiple point stimulation (MPS) MUNE, and motor unit number index (MUNIX), in patients with acute- and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP, CIDP). Nineteen patients with inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (eleven AIDP and eight CIDP) were prospectively included. MPS MUNE and MUNIX examinations on the thenar muscle group by stimulating the median nerve were applied on all patients. Motor unit size was calculated as single motor unit potential (sMUP) and motor unit size index (MUSIX). The results were compared with twenty healthy subjects. In AIDP patients mean MPS MUNE (106) and MUNIX (80) were lower than control MPS MUNE (329) and MUNIX (215) (p<0.001). In CIDP patients both MPS MUNE (88) and MUNIX (67) were lower than controls (p<0.001). In CIDP patients sMUP (63) and MUSIX (90) were higher than control sMUP (35) and MUSIX (58) (p<0.05 and p<0.01). When AIDP and CIDP groups were combined the sensitivity for MPS MUNE and MUNIX were 89.5% and 68.4%, respectively. Decreased MPS MUNE and MUNIX suggest presence of axonal loss or loss of functioning axons in AIDP and CIDP. Increased motor unit size in CIDP patients indicates compensatory reinnervation. Moreover, both MPS MUNE and MUNIX can discriminate between disease versus non-disease. Estimation of the number and the average size of motor units may have clinical value for the assessment of axonal loss or loss of functioning axons in patients with AIDP and CIDP. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

17 CFR 230.405 - Definitions of terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... the estimated public offering price of the shares; or (3) In the case of an issuer whose public float... shares sold. (iii) Once an issuer fails to qualify for smaller reporting company status, it will remain... indebtedness, the number of shares if relating to shares, and the number of units if relating to any other kind...

Fighting Allergies at School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Kelley R.

2008-01-01

In the last decade, the number of children diagnosed with food allergies has increased significantly--to an estimated 3 million affected in the United States alone (Food Allergy and Anaphylaxis Network, n.d.). As that number increases, so do the articles, legislation, and policies that are designed to address how to best deal with peanut allergies…

Lifelong Battle

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurst, Marianne D.

2004-01-01

It is estimated that nearly 19 million adults in the United States suffer from depression. While research on the number of school-age children with depression varies, most experts agree that between 5 percent and 11 percent of 6- to 17-year-olds are living with the problem every day. Depression is characterized by a number of symptoms, including…

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

System-theoretic Interpretation of the Mode Sensing Hypothesis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the...6. AUTHOR(S) Prof. Rafal Zbikowski Prof. Graham Taylor 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5d. TASK NUMBER 5e. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING...insect flight control has more recently been modelled. The approach that we adopt here differs from previous, related work in several fundamental

The Space Debris Crisis: Time for an International Treaty

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-23

TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Lieutenant Colonel Gregory D. Hillebrand Department of...Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND...problem is much larger than this. NASA estimates that There are more than 20,000 pieces of debris larger than a softball orbiting the Earth. They

77 FR 65693 - Notice of Intent To Make Changes in the State Title V Maternal and Child Health Block Grant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-30

... (ACS) poverty estimates. Title V MCH Block Grant funds are currently allocated to states based in part on a calculation of the number of children living in poverty (in an individual state) as compared to the total number of children living in poverty in the United States. Historically, data for the number...

A Simplified Quaternion-Based Algorithm for Orientation Estimation From Earth Gravity and Magnetic Field Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no...AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,Monterey,CA,93943 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME( S

Mechanical Pre-Stressing a Transducer through a Negative DC Biasing Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-21

13  ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AC Alternating Current DC Direct Currant FEA Finite Element Analysis NUWC Naval...at resonance into tension is shown in figure 3; it was estimated from finite element analysis (FEA) that the tensional stresses exceeded 2000 psi...PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Stephen C. Butler 5.d PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION

The Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0 (User’s Manual)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-05

From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8 -98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to...NUMBER 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 2. REPORT TYPE1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 6. AUTHOR(S) 8 . PERFORMING...7 2.3.3 PIPS 3.0 Macros File ................................................................................................................. 8

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey

PubMed Central

Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

Background In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Objective Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). Methods We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). Results We found that the percentage of MSM among adult men ranged from 1.5% (Wyoming) to 6.0% (Rhode Island) among states. Over one-quarter of MSM in the United States resided in 1 of 13 counties. Among counties with over 300,000 residents, the five highest county-level percentages of MSM were San Francisco County, California at 18.5% (66,586/359,566); New York County, New York at 13.8% (87,556/635,847); Denver County, Colorado at 10.5% (25,465/243,002); Multnomah County, Oregon at 9.9% (28,949/292,450); and Suffolk County, Massachusetts at 9.1% (26,338/289,634). Although California (n=792,750) and Los Angeles County (n=251,521) had the largest MSM populations of states and counties, respectively, the New York City-Newark-Jersey City CBSA had the most MSM of all CBSAs (n=397,399). Conclusions We used a new method to generate small-area estimates of MSM populations, incorporating prior work, recent data, and urbanicity-specific parameters. We also used an imputation approach to estimate MSM in rural areas, where same-sex sexual behavior may be underreported. Our approach yielded estimates of MSM population sizes within states, counties, and metropolitan areas in the United States, which provide denominators for calculation of HIV and STI prevalence and incidence at those geographic levels. PMID:27227149

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey.

PubMed

Grey, Jeremy A; Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). We found that the percentage of MSM among adult men ranged from 1.5% (Wyoming) to 6.0% (Rhode Island) among states. Over one-quarter of MSM in the United States resided in 1 of 13 counties. Among counties with over 300,000 residents, the five highest county-level percentages of MSM were San Francisco County, California at 18.5% (66,586/359,566); New York County, New York at 13.8% (87,556/635,847); Denver County, Colorado at 10.5% (25,465/243,002); Multnomah County, Oregon at 9.9% (28,949/292,450); and Suffolk County, Massachusetts at 9.1% (26,338/289,634). Although California (n=792,750) and Los Angeles County (n=251,521) had the largest MSM populations of states and counties, respectively, the New York City-Newark-Jersey City CBSA had the most MSM of all CBSAs (n=397,399). We used a new method to generate small-area estimates of MSM populations, incorporating prior work, recent data, and urbanicity-specific parameters. We also used an imputation approach to estimate MSM in rural areas, where same-sex sexual behavior may be underreported. Our approach yielded estimates of MSM population sizes within states, counties, and metropolitan areas in the United States, which provide denominators for calculation of HIV and STI prevalence and incidence at those geographic levels.

Egg banking in the United States: current status of commercially available cryopreserved oocytes.

PubMed

Quaas, Alexander M; Melamed, Alexander; Chung, Karine; Bendikson, Kristin A; Paulson, Richard J

2013-03-01

To estimate the current availability of donor cryopreserved oocytes and to describe the emerging phenomenon of commercial egg banks (CEBs) in the United States. Cross-sectional survey of CEBs. E-mail, telephone, and fax survey of all CEB scientific directors, conducted April 2012. None. None. Number and location of CEBs in the United States, years in existence, number of donors, number of available oocytes, level of donor anonymity, donor screening, cost of oocytes to recipients, freezing/thawing technique, pregnancy statistics. Seven CEBs were identified and surveyed (response rate: 100%). The CEBs used three distinct operational models, had been in existence for a median of 2 years (range: 1 to 8 years), with a median 21.5 (range: 6 to 100) donors and 120 (range: 20 to 1,000) currently available oocytes. The median recommended minimum number of eggs to obtain was six (range: four to seven), at an estimated mean cost per oocyte of $2,225 (range: $1,500 to $2,500). An estimated 3,130 oocytes from 294 donors are currently stored for future use. Of these CEBs, 6 (86%) of 7 use vitrification as cryopreservation method. To date, 8,780 frozen donor oocytes from CEBs have been used for in vitro fertilization, resulting in 602 pregnancies. Pregnancy rates per oocyte, available for 5 (71%) of 7 CEBs, were 532 (7.5%) of 7,080 for CEBs using vitrification and 70 (10%) of 700 for the single CEB using slow freezing as cryopreservation method. Frozen donor eggs are currently widely available in the United States. Three different operational models are currently used, resulting in more than 600 pregnancies from oocytes obtained at CEBs. The majority of CEBs use vitrification as cryopreservation technique. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

2009-01-01

We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

Vital Signs: Health Burden and Medical Costs of Nonfatal Injuries to Motor Vehicle Occupants — United States, 2012

PubMed Central

Bergen, Gwen; Peterson, Cora; Ederer, David; Florence, Curtis; Haileyesus, Tadesse; Kresnow, Marcie-jo; Xu, Likang

2014-01-01

Background Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death and injury in the United States. The purpose of this study was to describe the current health burden and medical and work loss costs of nonfatal crash injuries among vehicle occupants in the United States. Methods CDC analyzed data on emergency department (ED) visits resulting from nonfatal crash injuries among vehicle occupants in 2012 using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System – All Injury Program (NEISS-AIP) and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS). The number and rate of all ED visits for the treatment of crash injuries that resulted in the patient being released and the number and rate of hospitalizations for the treatment of crash injuries were estimated, as were the associated number of hospital days and lifetime medical and work loss costs. Results In 2012, an estimated 2,519,471 ED visits resulted from nonfatal crash injuries, with an estimated lifetime medical cost of $18.4 billion (2012 U.S. dollars). Approximately 7.5% of these visits resulted in hospitalizations that required an estimated 1,057,465 hospital days in 2012. Conclusions Nonfatal crash injuries occur frequently and result in substantial costs to individuals, employers, and society. For each motor vehicle crash death in 2012, eight persons were hospitalized, and 100 were treated and released from the ED. Implications for Public Health Public health practices and laws, such as primary seat belt laws, child passenger restraint laws, ignition interlocks to prevent alcohol impaired driving, sobriety checkpoints, and graduated driver licensing systems have demonstrated effectiveness for reducing motor vehicle crashes and injuries. They might also substantially reduce associated ED visits, hospitalizations, and medical costs. PMID:25299606

Is the Current Royal Australian Air Force an Air Force of Strategic Influence?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-17

0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing...5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME...training in 1991. He is a command pilot with over 6500 flying hours , primarily in AP-3C Orion and Hawk 127 aircraft. He has twice been a Staff

Safety of blood supply in the Caribbean countries: role of screening blood donors for markers of hepatitis B and C viruses.

PubMed

Cruz, Jose R; Pérez-Rosales, Maria Dolores; Zicker, Fabio; Schmunis, Gabriel A

2005-12-01

Blood transfusions carry risks of untoward reactions, including the transmission of infections, such as hepatitis B and C. Proper blood donor recruitment and selection, and adequate laboratory screening for infectious markers diminish the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections. To estimate the potential risk of acquiring transfusion-transmitted infections by hepatitis B or hepatitis C in 24 Caribbean countries during the period of 1996 to 2003. Official national reports for 1996, 2000-2003 of the yearly number of blood donors, screening coverage, and prevalence of serological markers for infectious diseases were used to estimate the risk of patients receiving an HBV- or HCV-positive unit of blood, and of developing an infection after receiving a positive unit. Estimates of number of infections transmitted through transfusion and number of infections prevented by screening of blood were also obtained. During the period analyzed, HBV screening coverage among blood donors was 100% in all countries with the exception of Grenada (0% in 1996) and Saint Lucia (99.5% in 2002). For HCV, only 10 countries reported universal screening in 1996, while 15 did in 2003. The number of countries that did not screen any units for HCV decreased from 11 in 1996 to five in 2003. In general, high prevalence rates of HBV (10-75 per 1000 donors) and HCV (7-19.3 per 1000 donors) markers were found in the majority of countries. We estimated that 235 infections by HCV (1:12471 donations) and two infections by HBV (1:1465373) were transmitted through transfusion because of lack of screening. On the other hand, screening of blood for transfusion prevented 21 005 HCV and 22 100 HBV infections. Blood donor recruitment and coverage of screening for transfusion-transmitted infections, especially HCV, must be improved in the Caribbean countries.

Inter-rater reliability of motor unit number estimates and quantitative motor unit analysis in the tibialis anterior muscle.

PubMed

Boe, S G; Dalton, B H; Harwood, B; Doherty, T J; Rice, C L

2009-05-01

To establish the inter-rater reliability of decomposition-based quantitative electromyography (DQEMG) derived motor unit number estimates (MUNEs) and quantitative motor unit (MU) analysis. Using DQEMG, two examiners independently obtained a sample of needle and surface-detected motor unit potentials (MUPs) from the tibialis anterior muscle from 10 subjects. Coupled with a maximal M wave, surface-detected MUPs were used to derive a MUNE for each subject and each examiner. Additionally, size-related parameters of the individual MUs were obtained following quantitative MUP analysis. Test-retest MUNE values were similar with high reliability observed between examiners (ICC=0.87). Additionally, MUNE variability from test-retest as quantified by a 95% confidence interval was relatively low (+/-28 MUs). Lastly, quantitative data pertaining to MU size, complexity and firing rate were similar between examiners. MUNEs and quantitative MU data can be obtained with high reliability by two independent examiners using DQEMG. Establishing the inter-rater reliability of MUNEs and quantitative MU analysis using DQEMG is central to the clinical applicability of the technique. In addition to assessing response to treatments over time, multiple clinicians may be involved in the longitudinal assessment of the MU pool of individuals with disorders of the central or peripheral nervous system.

The impact of new (orphan) drug approvals on premature mortality from rare diseases in the United States and France, 1999-2007.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R

2013-02-01

This paper investigates the impact of the introduction of new orphan drugs on premature mortality from rare diseases using longitudinal, disease-level data obtained from a number of major databases. The analysis is performed using data from two countries: the United States (during the period 1999-2006) and France (during the period 2000-2007). For both countries, we estimate models using two alternative definitions of premature mortality, several alternative criteria for inclusion in the set of rare diseases, and several values of the potential lag between new drug approvals and premature mortality reduction. Both the United States and French estimates indicate that, overall, premature mortality from rare diseases is unrelated to the cumulative number of drugs approved 0-2 years earlier but is significantly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs approved 3-4 years earlier. This delay is not surprising, since most patients probably do not have access to a drug until several years after it has been launched. Although the estimates for the two countries are qualitatively similar, the estimated magnitudes of the US coefficients are about four times as large as the magnitudes of the French coefficients. This may be partly due to greater errors in measuring dates of drug introduction in France. Also, access to new drugs may be more restricted in France than it is in the United States. Our estimates indicate that, in the United States, potential years of life lost to rare diseases before age 65 (PYLL65) declined at an average annual rate of 3.3% and that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, PYLL65 would have increased at a rate of 0.9%. Since the US population aged 0-64 was increasing at the rate of 1.0% per year, this means that PYLL65 per person under 65 would have remained approximately constant. The reduction in the US growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 4.2%. In France, PYLL65 declined at an average annual rate of 1.8%. The estimates imply that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, it would have declined at a rate of 0.6%. The reduction in the French growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 1.1%. Earlier access to orphan drugs could result in earlier reductions in premature mortality from rare diseases.

Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

2016-04-01

To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prevalence estimates for primary brain tumors in the United States by age, gender, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Freels, Sally; Kim, Yoonsang; Davis, Faith G

2010-06-01

Prevalence is the best indicator of cancer survivorship in the population, but few studies have focused on brain tumor prevalence because of previous data limitations. Hence, the full impact of primary brain tumors on the healthcare system in the United States is not completely described. The present study provides an estimate of the prevalence of disease in the United States, updating an earlier prevalence study. Incidence data for 2004 and survival data for 1985-2005 were obtained by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States from selected regions, modeled under 2 different survival assumptions, to estimate prevalence rates for the year 2004 and projected estimates for 2010. The overall incidence rate for primary brain tumors was 18.1 per 100 000 person-years with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year observed survival rates of 62%, 54%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. On the basis of the sum of nonmalignant and averaged malignant estimates, the overall prevalence rate of individuals with a brain tumor was estimated to be 209.0 per 100 000 in 2004 and 221.8 per 100 000 in 2010. The female prevalence rate (264.8 per 100 000) was higher than that in males (158.7 per 100 000). The averaged prevalence rate for malignant tumors (42.5 per 100 000) was lower than the prevalence for nonmalignant tumors (166.5 per 100 000). This study provides estimates of the 2004 (n = 612 770) and 2010 (n = 688 096) expected number of individuals living with primary brain tumor diagnoses in the United States, providing more current and robust estimates for aiding healthcare planning and patient advocacy for an aging US population.

"Are There Other Kids like Me?" Children with a Parent in Prison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clopton, Kerri L.; East, Katheryn K.

2008-01-01

The number of children who experience parental incarceration continues to rise with the United States. In 1999, an estimated 1.5 million minor children had a parent in a United States prison. One-fifth of these children are under 5 years of age (Mumola, Incarcerated parents and their children, Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report, 2000). A…

Antidepressant Use among Persons Aged 12 and Over: United States, 2011-2014. NCHS Data Brief. Number 283

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Laura A.; Brody, Debra J.; Gu, Qiuping

2017-01-01

Antidepressants are one of the three most commonly used therapeutic drug classes in the United States. While the majority of antidepressants are taken to treat depression, antidepressants can also be taken to treat other conditions, like anxiety disorders. This Data Brief provides the most recent estimates of antidepressant use in the U.S.…

Mapping forest vegetation for the western United States using modified random forests imputation of FIA forest plots

Treesearch

Karin Riley; Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark A. Finney

2016-01-01

Maps of the number, size, and species of trees in forests across the western United States are desirable for many applications such as estimating terrestrial carbon resources, predicting tree mortality following wildfires, and for forest inventory. However, detailed mapping of trees for large areas is not feasible with current technologies, but statistical...

Medical Tourism: The Trend toward Outsourcing Medical Procedures to Foreign Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

York, Diane

2008-01-01

The rising costs of medical treatment in the United States are fueling a movement to outsource medical treatment. Estimates of the number of Americans traveling overseas for treatment range from 50,000 to 500,000. Charges for common procedures such as heart bypass can be $11,000 in Thailand compared to $130,000 in the United States. Knee…

High Resolution Diffusion Tensor Imaging of Cortical-Subcortical White Matter Tracts in TBI

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

other words, CT perfusion is a change in CT intensity (or Hounsfield Unit , HU) over time following a bolus of iodine based contrast agent. Although...E-Mail: little@uic.edu 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT...estimates of the eigenvalues and decrease the signal-to-noise ratio, a background noise level of 125 (MR Units ) was applied prior to calculation of

Computerised Axial Tomography (CAT)

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

commercial market. EMI, which had originally counted on being the only firm selling CT units , subsequently increased its production in order to overtake...to a rough estimate’"’ the number of CT scanners at present working in Italy is about 18 units installed. apart from those in the large cities such as...hGdcl scanners and 198 total body scanners): among othar things, they emphasise that a CT unit , works, on an average, for 5.4 days in the week and

NATO’s Relevance in the Twenty-First Century

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching...5d. PROJECT NUMBER Colonel John K. Jones 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES...Christopher Coker, Globalisation and Insecurity in the Twenty-first Century: NATO and the Management of Risk (The International Institute for Strategic

Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

Estimating the population size of island loggerhead shrikes on Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Teel, Susan; Hall, Linnea S.; Dye, Linda C.; Laughrin, Lyndal L.

2012-01-01

Island loggerhead shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus anthonyi) are an endemic, genetically distinct subspecies of loggerhead shrike on California’s Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands. This subspecies is listed as a Species of Special Concern by the California Department of Fish and Game and has been petitioned for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Because of suspected low numbers and the possibility of federal listing, there was an urgent need to rigorously estimate the number of remaining individuals on the Islands. In 2009 and 2010, biologists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service surveyed sample units on Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands using a double-observer method with independent observers, where units were selected under a stratified random sampling design. Shrike abundance was estimated to be 169 in 2009 and 240 in 2010 for Santa Rosa Island, and 35 in 2009 and 42 in 2010 for Santa Cruz Island. These numbers, especially for Santa Rosa Island, are higher than previously reported but nevertheless are still low. Rapid vegetation change on both islands due to recent removal of non-native herbivores may threaten the habitat and status of this subspecies. In view of this circumstance and the still-low numbers of shrikes, additional intensive demographic and habitat-use studies are critical for obtaining information vital for the perpetuation of this subspecies.

Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.

PubMed

Bressler, Neil M; Bressler, Susan B; Congdon, Nathan G; Ferris, Frederick L; Friedman, David S; Klein, Ronald; Lindblad, Anne S; Milton, Roy C; Seddon, Johanna M

2003-11-01

To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States. The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS. An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years. If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KRASNITZ,A.; VENUGOPALAN,R.

The dynamics of low-x partons in the transverse plane of a high-energy nuclear collision is classical, and therefore admits a fully non-perturbative numerical treatment. The authors report results of a recent study estimating the initial energy density in the central region of a collision. Preliminary estimates of the number of gluons per unit rapidity, and the initial transverse momentum distribution of gluons, are also provided.

Estimated economic losses associated with the destruction of plants owing to Phytophthora ramorum quarantine efforts in Washington state

Treesearch

N.L. Dart; G.A. Chastagner

2008-01-01

The number and retail value of plants destroyed in Washington state nurseries due to Phytophthora ramorum quarantine efforts was estimated using Emergency Action Notification forms (EANs) issued by the United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service between 2004 and 2005. Data collected from EANs indicate that...

Spatial and temporal trends of deer harvest and deer-vehicle accidents in Ohio

Treesearch

Aaron L. Iverson; Louis R. Iverson

1999-01-01

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus} have been increasing dramatically in the eastern United States, with concomitant increases in impacts resulting from deer browsing and deer-vehicle collisions. In Ohio, the number of deer were estimated at near zero in 1940 to over 450,000 in 1995. We analyzed estimates of deer harvest and deer-vehicle...

A three stage sampling model for remote sensing applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisgruber, L. M.

1972-01-01

A conceptual model and an empirical application of the relationship between the manner of selecting observations and its effect on the precision of estimates from remote sensing are reported. This three stage sampling scheme considers flightlines, segments within flightlines, and units within these segments. The error of estimate is dependent on the number of observations in each of the stages.

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010

PubMed Central

Warren, Robert; Warren, John Robert

2013-01-01

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error. PMID:23956482

Under-reporting of tuberculosis in Praia, Cape Verde, from 2006 to 2012.

PubMed

Furtado da Luz, E; Braga, J U

2018-03-01

According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, the under-reporting rate for tuberculosis (TB) in Cape Verde between 2006 and 2012 was 49%. However, the WHO recognises the challenges associated with this estimation process and recommends implementing other methods, such as record linkage, to combat TB under-reporting. To estimate and analyse under-reporting of cases by TB surveillance health units and to evaluate TB cases retrieved from other TB diagnostic sources in Praia, Cape Verde, from 2006 to 2012. This cross-sectional study evaluated under-reporting using the following data: 1) the under-reporting index from TB reporting health units (RHUs), where the number of validated TB cases from RHUs was compared with data from the National Programme for the Fight against Tuberculosis and Leprosy (NPFTL); and 2) the under-reporting index among overall data sources, or a comparison of the number of all validated TB cases from all sources with NPFTL data. The TB under-reporting rate was 40% in Praia during the study period, and results were influenced by laboratory findings. The TB under-reporting rate was very similar to the rate estimated by the WHO. TB surveillance must be improved to reduce under-reporting.

Estimated number of infants detected and missed by critical congenital heart defect screening.

PubMed

Ailes, Elizabeth C; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Honein, Margaret A; Oster, Matthew E

2015-06-01

In 2011, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services recommended universal screening of newborns for critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs), yet few estimates of the number of infants with CCHDs likely to be detected through universal screening exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs in the United States likely to be detected (true positives) and missed (false negatives) through universal newborn CCHD screening. We developed a simulation model based on estimates of birth prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, late detection, and sensitivity of newborn CCHD screening through pulse oximetry to estimate the number of true-positive and false-negative nonsyndromic cases of the 7 primary and 5 secondary CCHD screening targets identified through screening. We estimated that 875 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 705-1060) US infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs, including 470 (95% UI: 360-585) infants with primary CCHD screening targets, will be detected annually through newborn CCHD screening. An additional 880 (UI: 700-1080) false-negative screenings, including 280 (95% UI: 195-385) among primary screening targets, are expected. We estimated that similar numbers of CCHDs would be detected under scenarios comparing "lower" (∼19%) and "higher" (∼41%) than current prenatal detection prevalences. A substantial number of nonsyndromic CCHD cases are likely to be detected through universal CCHD screening; however, an equal number of false-negative screenings, primarily among secondary targets of screening, are likely to occur. Future efforts should document the true impact of CCHD screening in practice. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The effect of airline deregulation on automobile fatalities.

PubMed

Bylow, L F; Savage, I

1991-10-01

This paper attempts to quantify the effects of airline deregulation in the United States on intercity automobile travel and consequently on the number of highway fatalities. A demand model is constructed for auto travel, which includes variables representing the price and availability of air service. A reduced form model of the airline market is then estimated. Finding that deregulation has decreased airfares and increased flights, it is estimated that auto travel has been reduced by 2.2% per year on average. Given assumptions on the characteristics of drivers switching modes and the types of roads they drove on, the number of automobile fatalities averted since 1978 is estimated to be in the range 200-300 per year.

Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.

1997-02-01

This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regardingmore » uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses.« less

The Estimated Annual Cost of Uterine Leiomyomata in the United States

PubMed Central

CARDOZO, Eden R.; CLARK, Andrew D.; BANKS, Nicole K.; HENNE, Melinda B.; STEGMANN, Barbara J.; SEGARS, James H.

2011-01-01

Objective To estimate the total annual societal cost of uterine fibroids in the United States, based on direct and indirect costs, including associated obstetric complications. Study Design A systematic review of the literature was conducted to estimate the number of women seeking treatment for symptomatic fibroids annually, the costs of medical and surgical treatment, work lost and obstetric complications attributable to fibroids. Total annual costs were converted to 2010 U.S. dollars. A sensitivity analysis was performed. Results The estimated annual direct costs (surgery, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, medications) were $4.1 to $9.4 billion. Estimated lost work costs ranged from $1.55 to $17.2 billion annually. Obstetric outcomes attributed to fibroids resulted in a cost of $238 million to $7.76 billion annually. Uterine fibroids were estimated to cost the US $5.9 to $34.4 billion annually. Conclusions Obstetric complications associated with fibroids contributed significantly to their economic burden. Lost work costs may account for the largest proportion of societal costs due to fibroids. PMID:22244472

The potential supply of organ donors. An assessment of the efficacy of organ procurement efforts in the United States.

PubMed

Evans, R W; Orians, C E; Ascher, N L

1992-01-08

To estimate the potential supply of organ donors and to measure the efficiency of organ procurement efforts in the United States. A geographic database has been developed consisting of multiple cause of death and sociodemographic data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. All deaths are evaluated as to their potential for organ donation. Two classes of potential donors are identified: class 1 estimates are restricted to causes of death involving significant head trauma only, and class 2 estimates include class 1 estimates as well as deaths in which brain death was less probable. Over 23,000 people are currently awaiting a kidney, heart, liver, heart-lung, pancreas, or lung transplantation. Donor supply is inadequate, and the number of donors remained unchanged at approximately 4000 annually for 1986 through 1989, with a modest 9.1% increase in 1990. Between 6900 and 10,700 potential donors are available annually (eg, 28.5 to 43.7 per million population). Depending on the class of donor considered, organ procurement efforts are between 37% and 59% efficient. Efficiency greatly varies by state and organ procurement organization. Many more organ donors are available than are being accessed through existing organ procurement efforts. Realistically, it may be possible to increase by 80% the number of donors available in the United States (up to 7300 annually). It is conceivable, although unlikely, that the supply of donor organs could achieve a level to meet demand.

Structural interventions to prevent HIV/sexually transmitted disease: are they cost-effective for women in the southern United States?

PubMed

Cohen, Deborah A; Wu, Shin-Yi; Farley, Thomas A

2006-07-01

Structural interventions are theoretically promising for populations with a low prevalence of HIV, because they can reach large numbers of people to influence their social norms and collective risky behaviors for a relatively low cost per person. Because HIV transmission is continuing to increase among women in the southern United States, interventions to stem this epidemic are particularly warranted. This study explores whether structural interventions may be a cost-effective way to prevent HIV in this population. We used the cost-effectiveness estimator, "Maximizing the Benefit" to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of 6 structural HIV prevention interventions. "Maximizing the Benefit" is a spreadsheet tool using mathematical models to estimate the cost per HIV infection prevented taking into account the epidemiologic contexts, behavioral change as a result of an intervention, and the costs of intervention. We applied estimates of HIV prevalence related to blacks in the southern United States. All the structural interventions were cost-effective compared with average lifetime treatment costs of HIV, but mass media, condom availability, and alcohol taxes theoretically prevented the largest numbers of HIV infections. Although the assumptions used in cost-effectiveness estimates have many limitations, they do allow for a relative comparison of different interventions and help to inform policy decisions related to the allocation of HIV prevention resources. Structural interventions hold the greatest promise in reducing HIV transmission among low-prevalence populations.

Population Size Estimation of Gay and Bisexual Men and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men Using Social Media-Based Platforms

PubMed Central

Turner, Rachael M; Lyons, Carrie E; Howell, Sean; Honermann, Brian; Garner, Alex; Hess III, Robert; Diouf, Daouda; Ayala, George; Sullivan, Patrick S; Millett, Greg

2018-01-01

Background Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV pandemic. Traditionally, GBMSM have been deemed less relevant in HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income settings where HIV epidemics are more generalized. This is due (in part) to how important population size estimates regarding the number of individuals who identify as GBMSM are to informing the development and monitoring of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs and coverage. However, pervasive stigma and criminalization of same-sex practices and relationships provide a challenging environment for population enumeration, and these factors have been associated with implausibly low or absent size estimates of GBMSM, thereby limiting knowledge about the dynamics of HIV transmission and the implementation of programs addressing GBMSM. Objective This study leverages estimates of the number of members of a social app geared towards gay men (Hornet) and members of Facebook using self-reported relationship interests in men, men and women, and those with at least one reported same-sex interest. Results were categorized by country of residence to validate official size estimates of GBMSM in 13 countries across five continents. Methods Data were collected through the Hornet Gay Social Network and by using an a priori determined framework to estimate the numbers of Facebook members with interests associated with GBMSM in South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, The Gambia, Lebanon, Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States. These estimates were compared with the most recent Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national estimates across 143 countries. Results The estimates that leveraged social media apps for the number of GBMSM across countries are consistently far higher than official UNAIDS estimates. Using Facebook, it is also feasible to assess the numbers of GBMSM aged 13-17 years, which demonstrate similar proportions to those of older men. There is greater consistency in Facebook estimates of GBMSM compared to UNAIDS-reported estimates across countries. Conclusions The ability to use social media for epidemiologic and HIV prevention, treatment, and care needs continues to improve. Here, a method leveraging different categories of same-sex interests on Facebook, combined with a specific gay-oriented app (Hornet), demonstrated significantly higher estimates than those officially reported. While there are biases in this approach, these data reinforce the need for multiple methods to be used to count the number of GBMSM (especially in more stigmatizing settings) to better inform mathematical models and the scale of HIV program coverage. Moreover, these estimates can inform programs for those aged 13-17 years; a group for which HIV incidence is the highest and HIV prevention program coverage, including the availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is lowest. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for social media to provide comparable estimates of the number of GBMSM across a large range of countries, including some with no reported estimates. PMID:29422452

Avian fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America: A comparison of recent approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Loss, Scott R.; Smallwood, K. Shawn; Erickson, Wallace P.

2016-01-01

Three recent publications have estimated the number of birds killed each year by wind energy facilities at 2012 build-out levels in the United States. The 3 publications differ in scope, methodology, and resulting estimates. We compare and contrast characteristics of the approaches used in the publications. In addition, we describe decisions made in obtaining the estimates that were produced. Despite variation in the 3 approaches, resulting estimates were reasonably similar; about a quarter- to a half-million birds are killed per year by colliding with wind turbines.

A unique approach to estimating lateral anisotropy in complex geohydrologic environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, K.J.; Campbell, B.

2004-01-01

Aquifers in fractured rock or karstic settings are likely to have anisotropic transmissivity distributions. Aquifer tests that are performed in these settings also we frequently affected by leakage from adjacent confining units. Finite-difference models such as MODFLOW are convenient tools for estimating the hydraulic characteristics of the stressed aquifer and adjacent confining units but are poor tools for the estimation of lateral anisotropy. This limitation of finite-difference methods can be overcome by application of the spin method, a technique whereby the positions of the observation wells are rotated about the production well to estimate anisotropy and orientation. Formal parameter estimation is necessary to analyze aquifer tests because of the number of parameters that we estimated. As a test, transmissivity, anisotropy, and orientation were successfully estimated for a simple hypothetical problem with known properties. The technique also was applied to estimate hydraulic properties of the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo (SL/BM) aquifer and a leaky confining unit beneath Charleston, South Carolina. A 9-day aquifer test with an average discharge of 644 1/min was analyzed numerically. Drawdowns in the SL/BM aquifer and confining unit were simulated with a 12-layer MODFLOW model that was discretized into 81 rows of 81 columns. Simulated drawdowns at seven observation wells that ranged from 23 to 2700 m from the production well were matched to measured drawdowns. Transmissivity estimated along the minor axis ranged from 10 to 15 m2/day and along the major axis ranged from 80 to 100 m2/day. The major axis of transmissivity was oriented along compass heading 116?? (degrees clockwise from north), which agrees with geologic interpretations. Vertical hydraulic conductivity and specific storage estimates for the overlying confining unit were 4 ?? 10-5m/day and 2 ?? 10-4 1/m, respectively. ?? 2004 International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research.

The Correlation between Attendance and Participation with Respect to Student Achievement in an Online Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapposelli, Joseph Anthony

2014-01-01

The recent and rapid growth of technology during the last several years has dramatically increased the number of new online degree programs and courses in the United States. As a result, enrollment into these online programs and courses has also increased. The United States Distance Learning Association (USDLA) estimated there was a total of 12.2…

Insights from a Survey of Astronomy Instructors in Community and Other Teaching-Oriented Colleges in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fraknoi, Andrew

2004-01-01

Estimates are that approximately 100,000 to 125,000 students take introductory astronomy classes each year at colleges and universities that do not grant bachelor's or higher degrees in physics or astronomy. This represents roughly 40% to 50% of the total number of students taking intro astronomy in the United States. Such nonresearch institutions…

Space Station: Actions Under Way to Manage Cost, but Significant Challenges Remain

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-07-01

GAO United States General Accounting OfficeReport to Congressional CommitteesJuly 2002 SPACE STATION Actions Under Way to Manage Cost , but...because NASA does not have good cost - accounting systems or practices. 1 The estimated cost growth is having a profound effect on the utility of the...SPACE STATION: Actions Under Way to Manage Cost , but Significant Challenges Remain Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s

Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines.

PubMed

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Grossmann, Iris; Apt, Jay

2012-02-28

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures--increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk--can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States' electricity needs.

Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines

PubMed Central

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J.; Grossmann, Iris; Apt, Jay

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures—increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk—can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States’ electricity needs. PMID:22331894

Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity.

PubMed

Joseph, Djenaba A; Meester, Reinier G S; Zauber, Ann G; Manninen, Diane L; Winges, Linda; Dong, Fred B; Peaker, Brandy; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2016-08-15

In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need. The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014-2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed. If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy-only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed. The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479-86. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Estimates of the timing of reductions in genital warts and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia after onset of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Dunne, Eileen F; Markowitz, Lauri E

2013-08-20

The objective of this study was to estimate the number of years after onset of a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program before notable reductions in genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) will occur in teenagers and young adults in the United States. We applied a previously published model of HPV vaccination in the United States and focused on the timing of reductions in genital warts among both sexes and reductions in CIN 2/3 among females. Using different coverage scenarios, the lowest being consistent with current 3-dose coverage in the United States, we estimated the number of years before reductions of 10%, 25%, and 50% would be observed after onset of an HPV vaccination program for ages 12-26 years. The model suggested female-only HPV vaccination in the intermediate coverage scenario will result in a 10% reduction in genital warts within 2-4 years for females aged 15-19 years and a 10% reduction in CIN 2/3 among females aged 20-29 years within 7-11 years. Coverage had a major impact on when reductions would be observed. For example, in the higher coverage scenario a 25% reduction in CIN2/3 would be observed with 8 years compared with 15 years in the lower coverage scenario. Our model provides estimates of the potential timing and magnitude of the impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 at the population level in the United States. Notable, population-level impacts of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 can occur within a few years after onset of vaccination, particularly among younger age groups. Our results are generally consistent with early reports of declines in genital warts among youth. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating the quadratic mean diameter of fine woody debris for forest type groups of the United States

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Vicente J. Monleon

2009-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture conducts a national inventory of fine woody debris (FWD); however, the sampling protocols involve tallying only the number of FWD pieces by size class that intersect a sampling transect with no measure of actual size. The line intersect estimator used with those samples...

Water decontamination

Treesearch

Roger Rowell

2004-01-01

For 1.5 to 2.5 billion people in the world, lack of clean water is a critical issue. It is estimated that by the year 2025 there will be an additional 2.5 billion people who will live in regions already lacking sufficient clean water. In the United States today, it is estimated that 90% of citizens live within 10 mi of a body of contaminated water. Large numbers of...

Lung cancer risk from radon in Ontario, Canada: how many lung cancers can we prevent?

PubMed

Peterson, Emily; Aker, Amira; Kim, JinHee; Li, Ye; Brand, Kevin; Copes, Ray

2013-11-01

To calculate the burden of lung cancer illness due to radon for all thirty-six health units in Ontario and determine the number of radon-attributable lung cancer deaths that could be prevented. We calculated the population attributable risk percent, excess life-time risk ratio, life-years lost, the number of lung cancer deaths due to radon, and the number of deaths that could be prevented if all homes above various cut-points were effectively reduced to background levels. It is estimated that 13.6 % (95 % CI 11.0, 16.7) of lung cancer deaths in Ontario are attributable to radon, corresponding to 847 (95 % CI 686, 1,039) lung cancer deaths each year, approximately 84 % of these in ever-smokers. If all homes above 200 Bq/m(3), the current Canadian guideline, were remediated to background levels, it is estimated that 91 lung cancer deaths could be prevented each year, 233 if remediation was performed at 100 Bq/m(3). There was important variation across health units. Radon is an important contributor to lung cancer deaths in Ontario. A large portion of radon-attributable lung cancer deaths are from exposures below the current Canadian guideline, suggesting interventions that install effective radon-preventive measures into buildings at build may be a good alternative population prevention strategy to testing and remediation. For some health units, testing and remediation may also prevent a portion of radon-related lung cancer deaths. Regional attributable risk estimates can help with local public health resource allocation and decision making.

Estimating the capacity value of concentrating solar power plants: A case study of the southwestern United States

DOE PAGES

Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2012-01-27

Here, we estimate the capacity value of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants without thermal energy storage in the southwestern U.S. Our results show that CSP plants have capacity values that are between 45% and 95% of maximum capacity, depending on their location and configuration. We also examine the sensitivity of the capacity value of CSP to a number of factors and show that capacity factor-based methods can provide reasonable approximations of reliability-based estimates.

Proportion of recovered waterfowl bands reported

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geis, A.D.; Atwood, E.L.

1961-01-01

Data from the annual mail survey of waterfowl hunters in the United States were used to estimate the total numbers of banded waterfowl that were shot. These estimates were compared with Banding Office records to estimate the proportion of recovered bands that was reported. On the average, about two banded birds were recovered for each one reported. The proportion reported was higher for some areas and for some species than for others. The proportion reported was higher when more of the reports came through employees of conservation agencies.

Improving Children’s Knowledge of Fraction Magnitudes

PubMed Central

Fazio, Lisa K.; Kennedy, Casey A.; Siegler, Robert S.

2016-01-01

We examined whether playing a computerized fraction game, based on the integrated theory of numerical development and on the Common Core State Standards’ suggestions for teaching fractions, would improve children’s fraction magnitude understanding. Fourth and fifth-graders were given brief instruction about unit fractions and played Catch the Monster with Fractions, a game in which they estimated fraction locations on a number line and received feedback on the accuracy of their estimates. The intervention lasted less than 15 minutes. In our initial study, children showed large gains from pretest to posttest in their fraction number line estimates, magnitude comparisons, and recall accuracy. In a more rigorous second study, the experimental group showed similarly large improvements, whereas a control group showed no improvement from practicing fraction number line estimates without feedback. The results provide evidence for the effectiveness of interventions emphasizing fraction magnitudes and indicate how psychological theories and research can be used to evaluate specific recommendations of the Common Core State Standards. PMID:27768756

Estimating Risk from Ambient Concentrations of Acrolein across the United States

PubMed Central

Woodruff, Tracey J.; Wells, Ellen M.; Holt, Elizabeth W.; Burgin, Deborah E.; Axelrad, Daniel A.

2007-01-01

Background Estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, a hazardous air pollutant, are greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference concentration throughout the United States, making it a concern for human health. However, there is no method for assessing the extent of risk under the U.S. EPA noncancer risk assessment framework. Objectives We estimated excess risks from ambient concentrations of acrolein based on dose–response modeling of a study in rats with a relationship between acrolein and residual volume/total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC) and specific compliance (sCL), markers for altered lung function. Methods Based on existing literature, we defined values above the 90th percentile for controls as “adverse.” We estimated the increase over baseline response that would occur in the human population from estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, taken from the U.S. EPA’s National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment for 1999, after standard animal-to-human conversions and extrapolating to doses below the experimental data. Results The estimated median additional number of adverse sCL outcomes across the United States was approximately 2.5 cases per 1,000 people. The estimated range of additional outcomes from the 5th to the 95th percentile of acrolein concentration levels across census tracts was 0.28–14 cases per 1,000. For RV/TLC, the median additional outcome was 0.002 per 1,000, and the additional outcome at the 95th percentile was 0.13 per 1,000. Conclusions Although there are uncertainties in estimating human risks from animal data, this analysis demonstrates a method for estimating health risks for noncancer effects and suggests that acrolein could be associated with decreased respiratory function in the United States. PMID:17431491

Designing occupancy studies when false-positive detections occur

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew

2016-01-01

1.Recently, estimators have been developed to estimate occupancy probabilities when false-positive detections occur during presence-absence surveys. Some of these estimators combine different types of survey data to improve estimates of occupancy. With these estimators, there is a tradeoff between the number of sample units surveyed, and the number and type of surveys at each sample unit. Guidance on efficient design of studies when false positives occur is unavailable. 2.For a range of scenarios, I identified survey designs that minimized the mean square error of the estimate of occupancy. I considered an approach that uses one survey method and two observation states and an approach that uses two survey methods. For each approach, I used numerical methods to identify optimal survey designs when model assumptions were met and parameter values were correctly anticipated, when parameter values were not correctly anticipated, and when the assumption of no unmodelled detection heterogeneity was violated. 3.Under the approach with two observation states, false positive detections increased the number of recommended surveys, relative to standard occupancy models. If parameter values could not be anticipated, pessimism about detection probabilities avoided poor designs. Detection heterogeneity could require more or fewer repeat surveys, depending on parameter values. If model assumptions were met, the approach with two survey methods was inefficient. However, with poor anticipation of parameter values, with detection heterogeneity, or with removal sampling schemes, combining two survey methods could improve estimates of occupancy. 4.Ignoring false positives can yield biased parameter estimates, yet false positives greatly complicate the design of occupancy studies. Specific guidance for major types of false-positive occupancy models, and for two assumption violations common in field data, can conserve survey resources. This guidance can be used to design efficient monitoring programs and studies of species occurrence, species distribution, or habitat selection, when false positives occur during surveys.

Quantification of uncertainty associated with United States high resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions: updates, challenges and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Chandrasekaran, V.; Mendoza, D. L.; Geethakumar, S.

2010-12-01

The Vulcan Project has estimated United States fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the hourly time scale and at spatial scales below the county level for the year 2002. Vulcan is built from a wide variety of observational data streams including regulated air pollutant emissions reporting, traffic monitoring, energy statistics, and US census data. In addition to these data sets, Vulcan relies on a series of modeling assumptions and constructs to interpolate in space, time and transform non-CO2 reporting into an estimate of CO2 combustion emissions. The recent version 2.0 of the Vulcan inventory has produced advances in a number of categories with particular emphasis on improved temporal structure. Onroad transportation emissions now avail of roughly 5000 automated traffic count monitors allowing for much improved diurnal and weekly time structure in our onroad transportation emissions. Though the inventory shows excellent agreement with independent national-level CO2 emissions estimates, uncertainty quantification has been a challenging task given the large number of data sources and numerous modeling assumptions. However, we have now accomplished a complete uncertainty estimate across all the Vulcan economic sectors and will present uncertainty estimates as a function of space, time, sector and fuel. We find that, like the underlying distribution of CO2 emissions themselves, the uncertainty is also strongly lognormal with high uncertainty associated with a relatively small number of locations. These locations typically are locations reliant upon coal combustion as the dominant CO2 source. We will also compare and contrast Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimates against estimates built from DOE fuel-based surveys at the state level. We conclude that much of the difference between the Vulcan inventory and DOE statistics are not due to biased estimation but mechanistic differences in supply versus demand and combustion in space/time.

On the importance of incorporating sampling weights in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Occupancy models are used extensively to assess wildlife-habitat associations and to predict species distributions across large geographic regions. Occupancy models were developed as a tool to properly account for imperfect detection of a species. Current guidelines on survey design requirements for occupancy models focus on the number of sample units and the pattern of revisits to a sample unit within a season. We focus on the sampling design or how the sample units are selected in geographic space (e.g., stratified, simple random, unequal probability, etc). In a probability design, each sample unit has a sample weight which quantifies the number of sample units it represents in the finite (oftentimes areal) sampling frame. We demonstrate the importance of including sampling weights in occupancy model estimation when the design is not a simple random sample or equal probability design. We assume a finite areal sampling frame as proposed for a national bat monitoring program. We compare several unequal and equal probability designs and varying sampling intensity within a simulation study. We found the traditional single season occupancy model produced biased estimates of occupancy and lower confidence interval coverage rates compared to occupancy models that accounted for the sampling design. We also discuss how our findings inform the analyses proposed for the nascent North American Bat Monitoring Program and other collaborative synthesis efforts that propose h

Development and use of the incremental twitch subtraction MUNE method in mice.

PubMed

Hegedus, Janka; Jones, Kelvin E; Gordon, Tessa

2009-01-01

We have used a technique to estimate the number of functioning motor units (MUNE) innervating a muscle in mice based on twitch tension. The MUNE technique was verified by modeling twitch tensions from isolated ventral root stimulation. Analysis by twitch tensions allowed us to identify motor unit fiber types. The MUNE technique was used to compare normal mice with transgenic superoxide dismutase-1 mutation (G94A) mice to assess the time course of motor unit loss with respect to fiber type. Motor unit loss was found to occur well in advance of behavioral changes and the degree of reinnervation is dependent upon motor unit fiber types.

Simplified Estimation and Testing in Unbalanced Repeated Measures Designs.

PubMed

Spiess, Martin; Jordan, Pascal; Wendt, Mike

2018-05-07

In this paper we propose a simple estimator for unbalanced repeated measures design models where each unit is observed at least once in each cell of the experimental design. The estimator does not require a model of the error covariance structure. Thus, circularity of the error covariance matrix and estimation of correlation parameters and variances are not necessary. Together with a weak assumption about the reason for the varying number of observations, the proposed estimator and its variance estimator are unbiased. As an alternative to confidence intervals based on the normality assumption, a bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap technique is considered. We also propose the naive percentile bootstrap for Wald-type tests where the standard Wald test may break down when the number of observations is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. In a simulation study we illustrate the properties of the estimator and the bootstrap techniques to calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypothesis tests in small and large samples under normality and non-normality of the errors. The results imply that the simple estimator is only slightly less efficient than an estimator that correctly assumes a block structure of the error correlation matrix, a special case of which is an equi-correlation matrix. Application of the estimator and the bootstrap technique is illustrated using data from a task switch experiment based on an experimental within design with 32 cells and 33 participants.

A proactive transfer policy for critical patient flow management.

PubMed

González, Jaime; Ferrer, Juan-Carlos; Cataldo, Alejandro; Rojas, Luis

2018-02-17

Hospital emergency departments are often overcrowded, resulting in long wait times and a public perception of poor attention. Delays in transferring patients needing further treatment increases emergency department congestion, has negative impacts on their health and may increase their mortality rates. A model built around a Markov decision process is proposed to improve the efficiency of patient flows between the emergency department and other hospital units. With each day divided into time periods, the formulation estimates bed demand for the next period as the basis for determining a proactive rather than reactive transfer decision policy. Due to the high dimensionality of the optimization problem involved, an approximate dynamic programming approach is used to derive an approximation of the optimal decision policy, which indicates that a certain number of beds should be kept free in the different units as a function of the next period demand estimate. Testing the model on two instances of different sizes demonstrates that the optimal number of patient transfers between units changes when the emergency patient arrival rate for transfer to other units changes at a single unit, but remains stable if the change is proportionally the same for all units. In a simulation using real data for a hospital in Chile, significant improvements are achieved by the model in key emergency department performance indicators such as patient wait times (reduction higher than 50%), patient capacity (21% increase) and queue abandonment (from 7% down to less than 1%).

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs because of cancer mortality and for specific cancer sites where human papillomavirus may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis-United States, 2003.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Chesson, Harrell W; Zhang, Kevin B; Balamurugan, Appathurai

2008-11-15

Although years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality-related productivity costs comprise a substantial portion of the burden of cancers where human papillomavirus (HPV) may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis (called HPV-associated cancers in this report), estimates of these costs are limited. The authors estimated the mortality-related burden (in terms of YPLL and productivity costs) of HPV-associated cancers (without regard to the percentage of each of these cancers that could be attributed to HPV) and all malignant cancers in the United States in 2003. The authors used 2003 national mortality data and US life tables to estimate YPLL for HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. YPLL was estimated by using the life expectancy method. The human capital approach was used to estimate the value of the expected future lifetime productivity losses caused by premature deaths from HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. Indirect mortality costs were estimated as the product of the number of deaths and the expected value of individuals' future earnings, including an imputed value of housekeeping services. In 2003, HPV-associated cancers accounted for 181,026 YPLL, which represented 2.4% of the estimated 7.5 million YPLL attributable to all malignant cancers in the United States. The average number of YPLL was 21.8 per HPV-associated cancer death and 16.3 per death from overall malignant cancers. Overall, HPV-associated cancers had the largest relative contribution to YPLL in women ages 30 to 34 years. The lifetime productivity cost from mortality in 2003 was $3.7 billion for HPV-associated cancer mortality and $133.5 billion for overall malignant cancer mortality. HPV-associated cancers impose a considerable burden in terms of premature deaths and productivity losses.

Genome size and chromosome number in velvet worms (Onychophora).

PubMed

Jeffery, Nicholas W; Oliveira, Ivo S; Gregory, T Ryan; Rowell, David M; Mayer, Georg

2012-12-01

The Onychophora (velvet worms) represents a small group of invertebrates (~180 valid species), which is commonly united with Tardigrada and Arthropoda in a clade called Panarthropoda. As with the majority of invertebrate taxa, genome size data are very limited for the Onychophora, with only one previously published estimate. Here we use both flow cytometry and Feulgen image analysis densitometry to provide genome size estimates for seven species of velvet worms from both major subgroups, Peripatidae and Peripatopsidae, along with karyotype data for each species. Genome sizes in these species range from roughly 5-19 pg, with densitometric estimates being slightly larger than those obtained by flow cytometry for all species. Chromosome numbers range from 2n = 8 to 2n = 54. No relationship is evident between genome size, chromosome number, or reproductive mode. Various avenues for future genomic research are presented based on these results.

Plant Disease Severity Assessment-How Rater Bias, Assessment Method, and Experimental Design Affect Hypothesis Testing and Resource Use Efficiency.

PubMed

Chiang, Kuo-Szu; Bock, Clive H; Lee, I-Hsuan; El Jarroudi, Moussa; Delfosse, Philippe

2016-12-01

The effect of rater bias and assessment method on hypothesis testing was studied for representative experimental designs for plant disease assessment using balanced and unbalanced data sets. Data sets with the same number of replicate estimates for each of two treatments are termed "balanced" and those with unequal numbers of replicate estimates are termed "unbalanced". The three assessment methods considered were nearest percent estimates (NPEs), an amended 10% incremental scale, and the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale. Estimates of severity of Septoria leaf blotch on leaves of winter wheat were used to develop distributions for a simulation model. The experimental designs are presented here in the context of simulation experiments which consider the optimal design for the number of specimens (individual units sampled) and the number of replicate estimates per specimen for a fixed total number of observations (total sample size for the treatments being compared). The criterion used to gauge each method was the power of the hypothesis test. As expected, at a given fixed number of observations, the balanced experimental designs invariably resulted in a higher power compared with the unbalanced designs at different disease severity means, mean differences, and variances. Based on these results, with unbiased estimates using NPE, the recommended number of replicate estimates taken per specimen is 2 (from a sample of specimens of at least 30), because this conserves resources. Furthermore, for biased estimates, an apparent difference in the power of the hypothesis test was observed between assessment methods and between experimental designs. Results indicated that, regardless of experimental design or rater bias, an amended 10% incremental scale has slightly less power compared with NPEs, and that the H-B scale is more likely than the others to cause a type II error. These results suggest that choice of assessment method, optimizing sample number and number of replicate estimates, and using a balanced experimental design are important criteria to consider to maximize the power of hypothesis tests for comparing treatments using disease severity estimates.

Fabrication of Flex Joint Utilizing Additively Manufactured Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddleman, David; Richard, Jim

2015-01-01

The Selective Laser Melting (SLM) manufacturing technique has been utilized in the manufacture of a flex joint typical of those found in rocket engine and main propulsion system ducting. The SLM process allowed for the combination of parts that are typically machined separately and welded together. This resulted in roughly a 65% reduction of the total number of parts, roughly 70% reduction in the total number of welds, and an estimated 60% reduction in the number of machining operations. The majority of the new design was in three SLM pieces. These pieces, as well as a few traditionally fabricated parts, were assembled into a complete unit, which has been pressure tested. The design and planned cryogenic testing of the unit will be presented.

Who's at Risk When the Power Goes Out? The At-home Electricity-Dependent Population in the United States, 2012

PubMed Central

Molinari, Noelle Angelique M.; Chen, Bei; Krishna, Nevin; Morris, Thomas

2016-01-01

Objectives Natural and man-made disasters can result in power outages that can affect certain vulnerable populations dependent on electrically powered durable medical equipment. This study estimated the size and prevalence of that electricity-dependent population residing at home in the United States. Methods We used the Truven Health MarketScan* 2012 database to estimate the number of employer-sponsored privately insured enrollees by geography, age group, and sex who resided at home and were dependent upon electrically powered durable medical equipment to sustain life. We estimated nationally representative prevalence and used US Census population estimates to extrapolate the national population and produce maps visualizing prevalence and distribution of electricity-dependent populations residing at home. Results As of 2012, among the 175 million persons covered by employer-sponsored private insurance, the estimated number of electricity-dependent persons residing at home was 366 619 (95% confidence interval: 365 700-367 537), with a national prevalence of 218.2 per 100 000 covered lives (95% confidence interval: 217.7-218.8). Prevalence varied significantly by age group (χ2 = 264 289 95, P < .0001) and region (χ2 = 12 286 30, P < .0001), with highest prevalence in those 65 years of age or older and in the South and the West. Across all insurance types in the United States, approximately 685 000 electricity-dependent persons resided at home. Conclusions These results may assist public health jurisdictions addressing unique needs and necessary resources for this particularly vulnerable population. Results can verify and enhance the development of functional needs registries, which are needed to help first responders target efforts to those most vulnerable during disasters affecting the power supply. PMID:26360818

Who's at Risk When the Power Goes Out? The At-home Electricity-Dependent Population in the United States, 2012.

PubMed

Molinari, Noelle Angelique M; Chen, Bei; Krishna, Nevin; Morris, Thomas

Natural and man-made disasters can result in power outages that can affect certain vulnerable populations dependent on electrically powered durable medical equipment. This study estimated the size and prevalence of that electricity-dependent population residing at home in the United States. We used the Truven Health MarketScan 2012 database to estimate the number of employer-sponsored privately insured enrollees by geography, age group, and sex who resided at home and were dependent upon electrically powered durable medical equipment to sustain life. We estimated nationally representative prevalence and used US Census population estimates to extrapolate the national population and produce maps visualizing prevalence and distribution of electricity-dependent populations residing at home. As of 2012, among the 175 million persons covered by employer-sponsored private insurance, the estimated number of electricity-dependent persons residing at home was 366 619 (95% confidence interval: 365 700-367 537), with a national prevalence of 218.2 per 100 000 covered lives (95% confidence interval: 217.7-218.8). Prevalence varied significantly by age group (χ = 264 289 95, P < .0001) and region (χ = 12 286 30, P < .0001), with highest prevalence in those 65 years of age or older and in the South and the West. Across all insurance types in the United States, approximately 685 000 electricity-dependent persons resided at home. These results may assist public health jurisdictions addressing unique needs and necessary resources for this particularly vulnerable population. Results can verify and enhance the development of functional needs registries, which are needed to help first responders target efforts to those most vulnerable during disasters affecting the power supply.

Unbounding the mental number line—new evidence on children's spatial representation of numbers

PubMed Central

Link, Tanja; Huber, Stefan; Nuerk, Hans-Christoph; Moeller, Korbinian

2014-01-01

Number line estimation (i.e., indicating the position of a given number on a physical line) is a standard assessment of children's spatial representation of number magnitude. Importantly, there is an ongoing debate on the question in how far the bounded task version with start and endpoint given (e.g., 0 and 100) might induce specific estimation strategies and thus may not allow for unbiased inferences on the underlying representation. Recently, a new unbounded version of the task was suggested with only the start point and a unit fixed (e.g., the distance from 0 to 1). In adults this task provided a less biased index of the spatial representation of number magnitude. Yet, so far there are no children data available for the unbounded number line estimation task. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study on primary school children performing both, the bounded and the unbounded version of the task. We observed clear evidence for systematic strategic influences (i.e., the consideration of reference points) in the bounded number line estimation task for children older than grade two whereas there were no such indications for the unbounded version for any one of the age groups. In summary, the current data corroborate the unbounded number line estimation task to be a valuable tool for assessing children's spatial representation of number magnitude in a systematic and unbiased manner. Yet, similar results for the bounded and the unbounded version of the task for first- and second-graders may indicate that both versions of the task might assess the same underlying representation for relatively younger children—at least in number ranges familiar to the children assessed. This is of particular importance for inferences about the nature and development of children's magnitude representation. PMID:24478734

Compressive Membrane Capability Estimates in Laterally Edge Restrained Reinforced Concrete One-Way Slabs

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-01

by THE UNITED STATES ARMY, I DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND MECHANICAL ENGINEERINGI UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY and DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ...SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING I MONITORING AG-ENCY REPORT NUMBER Department of Civil and Environmental ...LATERALLY EDGE RESTRAINED REINFORCED CONCRETE ONE-WAY SLABS Ronald Wayne Welch, Ph.D. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

The private forest landowners of Michigan.

Treesearch

Eugene M. Carpenter; Mark H. Hansen

1985-01-01

Estimates the number and distribution of nonindustrial private forest landowners in Michigan by size class and owner attitudes and objectives concerning forest ownership, management, and use. Provides 57 tables relating to owner and property characteristics for the state and its Forest Survey Units.

Nile River

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-15

... of which occurred north of Khartoum. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, tens of thousands of ... fled their homes, and the number of people in need of urgent food assistance in Sudan, estimated at three million earlier in the year, was ...

QuickStats: Percentage of Adult Day Services Center Participants, by Selected Diagnoses

MedlinePlus

... MMWR ) MMWR Share Compartir QuickStats: Percentage of Adult Day Services Center Participants,* by Selected Diagnoses † — National Study ... which is the estimated number of enrolled adult day services center participants in the United States on ...

Forest Statistics for Maine, 1995

Treesearch

Douglas M. Griffith; Carol L. Alerich; Carol L. Alerich

1996-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest inventory of Maine conducted in 1994-96. Findings are displayed in 117 tables containing estimates of forest area numbers of trees, timber volume, and growth. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

Wisconsin private timberland owners: 1997.

Treesearch

Earl C. Leatherberry

2001-01-01

Identifies and profiles Wisconsin's private timberland owners. Estimates the number and distribution of private timberland owners by owner attitudes and objectives concerning forest ownership; management, and use. Provides 45 tables relating owner and property characteristics for the State and its five survey units.

Prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy and Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders among the general and Aboriginal populations in Canada and the United States.

PubMed

Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Parunashvili, Nino; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-01-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure may cause a number of health complications for the mother and developing fetus, including Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of i) alcohol use (any amount) and binge drinking (4 or more standard drinks on a single occasion) during pregnancy, and ii) Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) and FASD among the general and Aboriginal populations in Canada and the United States, based on the available literature. Comprehensive systematic literature searches and meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted. It was revealed that about 10% and 15% of pregnant women in the general population consume alcohol in Canada and the United States, respectively, and that about 3% of women engage in binge drinking during pregnancy in both countries. However, the prevalence of alcohol use during pregnancy in the Aboriginal populations of the United States and Canada were found to be approximately 3-4 times higher, respectively, compared to the general population. Even more alarmingly, it was estimated that approximately one in five women in the Aboriginal populations in both countries engage in binge drinking during pregnancy. Further, among the general population of Canada, the pooled prevalence was estimated to be about 1 per 1000 for FAS and 5 per 1000 for FASD. However, compared to the general population, the prevalence of FAS and FASD among the Aboriginal population in Canada was estimated to be 38 times and 16 times higher, respectively. With respect to the United States, the pooled prevalence of FAS and FASD was estimated to be about 2 per 1000 and 15 per 1,000, respectively, among the general population, and 4 per 1000 and 10 per 1,000, respectively, among the Aboriginal population. The FAS and FASD pooled prevalence estimates presented here should be used with caution due to the limited number of existing studies and their methodological limitations. Based on the results of the current study, it is evident that there is an urgent need for implementing more effective national prevention and surveillance strategies to monitor and lower the prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy and FASD. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

Photocatalytic Active Radiation Measurements and Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Bruce A.; Underwood, Lauren W.

2011-01-01

Photocatalytic materials are being used to purify air, to kill microbes, and to keep surfaces clean. A wide variety of materials are being developed, many of which have different abilities to absorb various wavelengths of light. Material variability, combined with both spectral illumination intensity and spectral distribution variability, will produce a wide range of performance results. The proposed technology estimates photocatalytic active radiation (PcAR), a unit of radiation that normalizes the amount of light based on its spectral distribution and on the ability of the material to absorb that radiation. Photocatalytic reactions depend upon the number of electron-hole pairs generated at the photocatalytic surface. The number of electron-hole pairs produced depends on the number of photons per unit area per second striking the surface that can be absorbed and whose energy exceeds the bandgap of the photocatalytic material. A convenient parameter to describe the number of useful photons is the number of moles of photons striking the surface per unit area per second. The unit of micro-einsteins (or micromoles) of photons per m2 per sec is commonly used for photochemical and photoelectric-like phenomena. This type of parameter is used in photochemistry, such as in the conversion of light energy for photosynthesis. Photosynthetic response correlates with the number of photons rather than by energy because, in this photochemical process, each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon. In photosynthesis, the number of photons absorbed in the 400 700 nm spectral range is estimated and is referred to as photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). PAR is defined in terms of the photosynthetic photon flux density measured in micro-einsteins of photons per m2 per sec. PcAR is an equivalent, similarly modeled parameter that has been defined for the photocatalytic processes. Two methods to measure the PcAR level are being proposed. In the first method, a calibrated spectrometer with a cosine receptor is used to measure the spectral irradiance. This measurement, in conjunction with the photocatalytic response as a function of wavelength, is used to estimate the PcAR. The photocatalytic response function is determined by measuring photocatalytic reactivity as a function of wavelength. In the second method, simple shaped photocatalytic response functions can be simulated with a broad-band detector with a cosine receptor appropriately filtered to represent the spectral response of the photocatalytic material. This second method can be less expensive than using a calibrated spectrometer.

40 CFR Appendix to Part 262 - Uniform Hazardous Waste Manifest and Instructions (EPA Forms 8700-22 and 8700-22A and Their...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

.... Item 10. Containers (Number and Type) Enter the number of containers for each waste and the appropriate abbreviation from Table I (below) for the type of container. Table I—Types of Containers BA = Burlap, cloth... quantities shipped. Container capacities are not acceptable as estimates. Item 12. Units of Measure (Weight...

40 CFR Appendix to Part 262 - Uniform Hazardous Waste Manifest and Instructions (EPA Forms 8700-22 and 8700-22A and Their...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Item 10. Containers (Number and Type) Enter the number of containers for each waste and the appropriate abbreviation from Table I (below) for the type of container. Table I—Types of Containers BA = Burlap, cloth... quantities shipped. Container capacities are not acceptable as estimates. Item 12. Units of Measure (Weight...

40 CFR Appendix to Part 262 - Uniform Hazardous Waste Manifest and Instructions (EPA Forms 8700-22 and 8700-22A and Their...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... Item 10. Containers (Number and Type) Enter the number of containers for each waste and the appropriate abbreviation from Table I (below) for the type of container. Table I—Types of Containers BA = Burlap, cloth... quantities shipped. Container capacities are not acceptable as estimates. Item 12. Units of Measure (Weight...

Estimating the occupancy of spotted owl habitat areas by sampling and adjusting for bias

Treesearch

David L. Azuma; James A. Baldwin; Barry R. Noon

1990-01-01

A basic sampling scheme is proposed to estimate the proportion of sampled units (Spotted Owl Habitat Areas (SOHAs) or randomly sampled 1000-acre polygon areas (RSAs)) occupied by spotted owl pairs. A bias adjustment for the possibility of missing a pair given its presence on a SOHA or RSA is suggested. The sampling scheme is based on a fixed number of visits to a...

Community Report from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network: Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) among Multiple Areas of the United States in 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012

2012-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that about 1 in 88 children has been identified with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). CDC's estimate comes from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network, which monitors the number of 8-year-old children with ASDs living in diverse communities throughout the…

Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

PubMed

Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

2003-02-26

Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

Population Size Estimation of Gay and Bisexual Men and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men Using Social Media-Based Platforms.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Turner, Rachael M; Lyons, Carrie E; Howell, Sean; Honermann, Brian; Garner, Alex; Hess, Robert; Diouf, Daouda; Ayala, George; Sullivan, Patrick S; Millett, Greg

2018-02-08

Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV pandemic. Traditionally, GBMSM have been deemed less relevant in HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income settings where HIV epidemics are more generalized. This is due (in part) to how important population size estimates regarding the number of individuals who identify as GBMSM are to informing the development and monitoring of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs and coverage. However, pervasive stigma and criminalization of same-sex practices and relationships provide a challenging environment for population enumeration, and these factors have been associated with implausibly low or absent size estimates of GBMSM, thereby limiting knowledge about the dynamics of HIV transmission and the implementation of programs addressing GBMSM. This study leverages estimates of the number of members of a social app geared towards gay men (Hornet) and members of Facebook using self-reported relationship interests in men, men and women, and those with at least one reported same-sex interest. Results were categorized by country of residence to validate official size estimates of GBMSM in 13 countries across five continents. Data were collected through the Hornet Gay Social Network and by using an a priori determined framework to estimate the numbers of Facebook members with interests associated with GBMSM in South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, The Gambia, Lebanon, Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States. These estimates were compared with the most recent Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national estimates across 143 countries. The estimates that leveraged social media apps for the number of GBMSM across countries are consistently far higher than official UNAIDS estimates. Using Facebook, it is also feasible to assess the numbers of GBMSM aged 13-17 years, which demonstrate similar proportions to those of older men. There is greater consistency in Facebook estimates of GBMSM compared to UNAIDS-reported estimates across countries. The ability to use social media for epidemiologic and HIV prevention, treatment, and care needs continues to improve. Here, a method leveraging different categories of same-sex interests on Facebook, combined with a specific gay-oriented app (Hornet), demonstrated significantly higher estimates than those officially reported. While there are biases in this approach, these data reinforce the need for multiple methods to be used to count the number of GBMSM (especially in more stigmatizing settings) to better inform mathematical models and the scale of HIV program coverage. Moreover, these estimates can inform programs for those aged 13-17 years; a group for which HIV incidence is the highest and HIV prevention program coverage, including the availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is lowest. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for social media to provide comparable estimates of the number of GBMSM across a large range of countries, including some with no reported estimates. ©Stefan Baral, Rachael M Turner, Carrie E Lyons, Sean Howell, Brian Honermann, Alex Garner, Robert Hess III, Daouda Diouf, George Ayala, Patrick S Sullivan, Greg Millett. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 08.02.2018.

Workforce Projections 2010-2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States.

PubMed

Landry, Michel D; Hack, Laurita M; Coulson, Elizabeth; Freburger, Janet; Johnson, Michael P; Katz, Richard; Kerwin, Joanne; Smith, Megan H; Wessman, Henry C Bud; Venskus, Diana G; Sinnott, Patricia L; Goldstein, Marc

2016-01-01

Health human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020. A traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020. Supply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists. Three separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions. Workforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data-generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting. Outcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-08

generally reduce the amount obligated. For FY2012 and FY2013, DOD data is as of June 2014 and so lapsed funds only reflect monies with a one-year life . At...this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters...5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

User’s Manual for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-05

817- 846 , 1979. [7] E.C. Hunke. Viscous-plastic sea ice dynamics with the EVP model: Linearization issues. J. Comput. Phys. 170:18-38, 2001. [ 8 ...From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8 -98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to...NUMBER 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 2. REPORT TYPE1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 6. AUTHOR(S) 8 . PERFORMING

Global Radius of Curvature Estimation and Control System for Segmented Mirrors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rakoczy, John M. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

An apparatus controls positions of plural mirror segments in a segmented mirror with an edge sensor system and a controller. Current mirror segment edge sensor measurements and edge sensor reference measurements are compared with calculated edge sensor bias measurements representing a global radius of curvature. Accumulated prior actuator commands output from an edge sensor control unit are combined with an estimator matrix to form the edge sensor bias measurements. An optimal control matrix unit then accumulates the plurality of edge sensor error signals calculated by the summation unit and outputs the corresponding plurality of actuator commands. The plural mirror actuators respond to the actuator commands by moving respective positions of the mixor segments. A predetermined number of boundary conditions, corresponding to a plurality of hexagonal mirror locations, are removed to afford mathematical matrix calculation.

Using safety inspection data to estimate shaking intensity for the 1994 Northridge earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thywissen, K.; Boatwright, J.

1998-01-01

We map the shaking intensity suffered in Los Angeles County during the 17 January 1994, Northridge earthquake using municipal safety inspection data. The intensity is estimated from the number of buildings given red, yellow, or green tags, aggregated by census tract. Census tracts contain from 200 to 4000 residential buildings and have an average area of 6 km2 but are as small as 2 and 1 km2 in the most densely populated areas of the San Fernando Valley and downtown Los Angeles, respectively. In comparison, the zip code areas on which standard MMI intensity estimates are based are six times larger, on average, than the census tracts. We group the buildings by age (before and after 1940 and 1976), by number of housing units (one, two to four, and five or more), and by construction type, and we normalize the tags by the total number of similar buildings in each census tract. We analyze the seven most abundant building categories. The fragilities (the fraction of buildings in each category tagged within each intensity level) for these seven building categories are adjusted so that the intensity estimates agree. We calibrate the shaking intensity to correspond with the modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) estimated and compiled by Dewey et al. (1995); the shapes of the resulting isoseismals are similar, although we underestimate the extent of the MMI = 6 and 7 areas. The fragility varies significantly between different building categories (by factors of 10 to 20) and building ages (by factors of 2 to 6). The post-1940 wood-frame multi-family (???5 units) dwellings make up the most fragile building category, and the post-1940 wood-frame single-family dwellings make up the most resistant building category.

Private timberland owners of Michigan, 1994.

Treesearch

Earl C. Leatherberry; Neal P. Kingsley; Thomas W. Birch

1998-01-01

Identifies and profiles Michigan's private timberland owners. Estimates the number and distribution of private timberland owners by owner attitudes and objectives concerning forest ownership, management, and use. Provides 45 tables relating to owner and property characteristics for the state and its four survey units.

Forest Statistics for Kentucky - 1975 and 1988

Treesearch

Carol L. Alerich

1990-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest survey of Kentucky (1988). Findings are displayed in 204 tables containing estimates of forest area, number of trees, timber volume, tree biomass, and timber products output. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

Forest statistics for Maryland--1976 and 1986

Treesearch

Thomas S. Frieswyk; Dawn M. DiGiovanni; Dawn M. DiGiovanni

1988-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest survey of Maryland (1986). Findings are displayed in 115 tables containing estimates of forest area, numbers of trees, timber volume, tree biomass, and timber products output. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

[Cost at the first level of care].

PubMed

Villarreal-Ríos, E; Montalvo-Almaguer, G; Salinas-Martínez, M; Guzmán-Padilla, J E; Tovar-Castillo, N H; Garza-Elizondo, M E

1996-01-01

To estimate the unit cost of 15 causes of demand for primary care per health clinic in an institutional (social security) health care system, and to determine the average cost at the state level. The cost of 80% of clinic visits was estimated in 35 of 40 clinics in the social security health care system in the state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico. The methodology for fixed costs consisted of: departmentalization, inputs, cost, weights and construction of matrices. Variable costs were estimated for standard patients by type of health care sought and with the consensus of experts; the sum of fixed and variable costs gave the unit cost. A computerized model was employed for data processing. A large variation in unit cost was observed between health clinics studied for all causes of demand, in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. Prenatal care ($92.26) and diarrhea ($93.76) were the least expensive while diabetes ($240.42) and hypertension ($312.54) were the most expensive. Non-metropolitan costs were higher than metropolitan costs (p < 0.05); controlling for number of physician's offices showed that this was determined by medical units with only one physician's office. Knowledge of unit costs is a tool that, when used by medical administrators, allows adequate health care planning and efficient allocation of health resources.

Insects intercepted on Solid Wood Packing Materials at United States Ports-of-Entry: 1985-1998

Treesearch

Robert A. Haack; Joseph F. Cavey

2000-01-01

Estimates of the total number of exotic (non-indigenous) organisms that are now established in the United States(US), range from 4,500 (US Congress1993) to more than 50,000 (Pimentel et al. 2000), of which more than 400 are insects that feed on trees and shrubs and another 20 are disease organisms of trees(Haack and Byler 1993, Mattson et al. 1994, Niemela and Mattson...

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Amaku, Marcos; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Struchiner, Claudio José; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Coelho, Giovanini; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento

2018-05-30

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

A General Simulator Using State Estimation for a Space Tug Navigation System. [computerized simulation, orbital position estimation and flight mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boland, J. S., III

1975-01-01

A general simulation program is presented (GSP) involving nonlinear state estimation for space vehicle flight navigation systems. A complete explanation of the iterative guidance mode guidance law, derivation of the dynamics, coordinate frames, and state estimation routines are given so as to fully clarify the assumptions and approximations involved so that simulation results can be placed in their proper perspective. A complete set of computer acronyms and their definitions as well as explanations of the subroutines used in the GSP simulator are included. To facilitate input/output, a complete set of compatable numbers, with units, are included to aid in data development. Format specifications, output data phrase meanings and purposes, and computer card data input are clearly spelled out. A large number of simulation and analytical studies were used to determine the validity of the simulator itself as well as various data runs.

Veterinary medical manpower: supply-demand projections to 2020.

PubMed

McLaughlin, G W; Bard, H E; Talbot, R B

1976-02-15

A supply projection model to estimate the number of veterinarians available through the year 2020 was developed. When projected available manpower was compared with the need for veterinary medical services, as estimated in a National Academy of Science study, a net shortage was indicated in each year between 1976 and 2020. The manpower supply available if 3 additional veterinary colleges were developed in the United States was also estimated. It was concluded that, even with the additional output of these colleges, the supply of veterinarians will not keep pace with future needs for veterinary services.

Occupational injury and illness in the United States. Estimates of costs, morbidity, and mortality.

PubMed

Leigh, J P; Markowitz, S B; Fahs, M; Shin, C; Landrigan, P J

1997-07-28

To estimate the annual incidence, the mortality and the direct and indirect costs associated with occupational injuries and illnesses in the United States in 1992. Aggregation and analysis of national and large regional data sets collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Council on Compensation Insurance, the National Center for Health Statistics, the Health Care Financing Administration, and other governmental bureaus and private firms. To assess incidence of and mortality from occupational injuries and illnesses, we reviewed data from national surveys and applied an attributable risk proportion method. To assess costs, we used the human capital method that decomposes costs into direct categories such as medical and insurance administration expenses as well as indirect categories such as lost earnings, lost home production, and lost fringe benefits. Some cost estimates were drawn from the literature while others were generated within this study. Total costs were calculated by multiplying average costs by the number of injuries and illnesses in each diagnostic category. Approximately 6500 job-related deaths from injury, 13.2 million nonfatal injuries, 60,300 deaths from disease, and 862,200 illnesses are estimated to occur annually in the civilian American workforce. The total direct ($65 billion) plus indirect ($106 billion) costs were estimated to be $171 billion. Injuries cost $145 billion and illnesses $26 billion. These estimates are likely to be low, because they ignore costs associated with pain and suffering as well as those of within-home care provided by family members, and because the numbers of occupational injuries and illnesses are likely to be undercounted. The costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are high, in sharp contrast to the limited public attention and societal resources devoted to their prevention and amelioration. Occupational injuries and illnesses are an insufficiently appreciated contributor to the total burden of health care costs in the United States.

Potentially Preventable Deaths Among the Five Leading Causes of Death - United States, 2010 and 2014.

PubMed

García, Macarena C; Bastian, Brigham; Rossen, Lauren M; Anderson, Robert; Miniño, Arialdi; Yoon, Paula W; Faul, Mark; Massetti, Greta; Thomas, Cheryll C; Hong, Yuling; Iademarco, Michael F

2016-11-18

Death rates by specific causes vary across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.* Information on differences in rates for the leading causes of death among states might help state health officials determine prevention goals, priorities, and strategies. CDC analyzed National Vital Statistics System data to provide national and state-specific estimates of potentially preventable deaths among the five leading causes of death in 2014 and compared these estimates with estimates previously published for 2010. Compared with 2010, the estimated number of potentially preventable deaths changed (supplemental material at https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/42472); cancer deaths decreased 25% (from 84,443 to 63,209), stroke deaths decreased 11% (from 16,973 to 15,175), heart disease deaths decreased 4% (from 91,757 to 87,950), chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) (e.g., asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema) deaths increased 1% (from 28,831 to 29,232), and deaths from unintentional injuries increased 23% (from 36,836 to 45,331). A better understanding of progress made in reducing potentially preventable deaths in the United States might inform state and regional efforts targeting the prevention of premature deaths from the five leading causes in the United States.

Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsner, J. B.; Jagger, T. H.; Widen, H. M.; Chavas, D. R.

2014-01-01

The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994-2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71 years) that a tornado day produces 145 tornadoes as was observed on 27 April 2011. They also find that the total number of tornadoes by damage category on days with at least one violent tornado follows an exponential rule. On average, the daily number of tornadoes in the next lowest damage category is approximately twice the number in the current category. These findings are important and timely for tornado hazard models and for seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts of tornado activity.

Job Search on the Internet, E-Recruitment, and Labor Market Outcomes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

CA,90407-2138 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/ MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11...United States offered the option of telecommuting at least one day a week, according to a 2008 survey by the...expression can easily deviate from zero . To estimate an unbiased estimate of  , which is the effect of 45 using the Internet, this study uses two

Causes and prevalence of visual impairment among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Congdon, Nathan; O'Colmain, Benita; Klaver, Caroline C W; Klein, Ronald; Muñoz, Beatriz; Friedman, David S; Kempen, John; Taylor, Hugh R; Mitchell, Paul

2004-04-01

To estimate the cause-specific prevalence and distribution of blindness and low vision in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender, and to estimate the change in these prevalence figures over the next 20 years. Summary prevalence estimates of blindness (both according to the US definition of < or =6/60 [< or =20/200] best-corrected visual acuity in the better-seeing eye and the World Health Organization standard of < 6/120 [< 20/400]) and low vision (< 6/12 [< 20/40] best-corrected vision in the better-seeing eye) were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white persons in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated prevalences were based on recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These estimates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and to projected US population figures for 2020, to estimate the number of Americans with visual impairment. Cause-specific prevalences of blindness and low vision were also estimated for the different racial/ethnic groups. Based on demographics from the 2000 US Census, an estimated 937 000 (0.78%) Americans older than 40 years were blind (US definition). An additional 2.4 million Americans (1.98%) had low vision. The leading cause of blindness among white persons was age-related macular degeneration (54.4% of the cases), while among black persons, cataract and glaucoma accounted for more than 60% of blindness. Cataract was the leading cause of low vision, responsible for approximately 50% of bilateral vision worse than 6/12 (20/40) among white, black, and Hispanic persons. The number of blind persons in the US is projected to increase by 70% to 1.6 million by 2020, with a similar rise projected for low vision. Blindness or low vision affects approximately 1 in 28 Americans older than 40 years. The specific causes of visual impairment, and especially blindness, vary greatly by race/ethnicity. The prevalence of visual disabilities will increase markedly during the next 20 years, owing largely to the aging of the US population.

Estimate of the direct and indirect annual cost of bacterial conjunctivitis in the United States

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual costs of treating bacterial conjunctivitis (BC) in the United States. This was a cost of illness study performed from a U.S. healthcare payer perspective. Methods A comprehensive review of the medical literature was supplemented by data on the annual incidence of BC which was obtained from an analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) database for the year 2005. Cost estimates for medical visits and laboratory or diagnostic tests were derived from published Medicare CPT fee codes. The cost of prescription drugs was obtained from standard reference sources. Indirect costs were calculated as those due to lost productivity. Due to the acute nature of BC, no cost discounting was performed. All costs are expressed in 2007 U.S. dollars. Results The number of BC cases in the U.S. for 2005 was estimated at approximately 4 million yielding an estimated annual incidence rate of 135 per 10,000. Base-case analysis estimated the total direct and indirect cost of treating patients with BC in the United States at $ 589 million. One- way sensitivity analysis, assuming either a 20% variation in the annual incidence of BC or treatment costs, generated a cost range of $ 469 million to $ 705 million. Two-way sensitivity analysis, assuming a 20% variation in both the annual incidence of BC and treatment costs occurring simultaneously, resulted in an estimated cost range of $ 377 million to $ 857 million. Conclusion The economic burden posed by BC is significant. The findings may prove useful to decision makers regarding the allocation of healthcare resources necessary to address the economic burden of BC in the United States. PMID:19939250

Forest statistics for Maryland: 1986 and 1999

Treesearch

Thomas S. Frieswyk

2001-01-01

A statistical report on the fifth forest inventory of Maryland (1998-1999). Findings are displayed in 109 tables containing estimates of forest area, numbers of trees, wildlife habitat, timber volume, growth, change, and biomass. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit and county.

Forest statistics for Ohio, 1991

Treesearch

Douglas M. Griffith; Dawn M. DiGiovanni; Teresa L. Witzel; Eric H. Wharton

1993-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest inventory of Ohio conducted in 1988-90. Findings are displayed in tables containing estimates of forest area, number of trees, sawtimber volume, growing-stock volume, biomass, growth, and removals. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

Forest statistics for West Virginia--1975 and 1989

Treesearch

Dawn M. Di Giovanni; Dawn M. Di Giovanni

1990-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest survey of West Virginia (1989). Findings are displayed in 119 tables containing estimates of forest area, number of trees, timber volume, tree biomass, and timber products output. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

Estimated Quantity of Water in Fractured Bedrock Units on Mt. Desert Island, and Estimated Ground-Water Use, Recharge, and Dilution of Nitrogen in Septic Waste in the Bar Harbor Area, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Martha G.

2002-01-01

In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the town of Bar Harbor, Maine, and the National Park Service, conducted a study to assess the quantity of water in the bedrock units underlying Mt. Desert Island, and to estimate water use, recharge, and dilution of nutrients from domestic septic systems overlying the bedrock units in several watersheds in rural Bar Harbor. Water quantity was calculated as the static volume of water in the top 600 feet of saturated thickness of the bedrock units. Volumes of water were estimated on the basis of effective fracture porosities for the five different rock types found on Mt. Desert Island. Values of porosities for the various bedrock units from the literature range more than five orders of magnitude, although the possible range in porosities for most individual rock types is on the order of three orders of magnitude. The static volume of water in the various units may range from a low of 4,000 gallons per acre for intrusive igneous rocks (primarily granites) to 20 million gallons per acre for the Cranberry Island Volcanics, but given the range in porosity estimates, these numbers can vary by orders of magnitude. Water-use data for the municipal water supply in the Town of Bar Harbor (1998-2000) indicate that residential usage averages 225 gallons per household per day. Recharge to the bedrock units in rural Bar Harbor was bracketed using low, medium, and high estimates, which were 3, 9, and 14 inches per year, respectively. Water use in 2001 was about 2.5 percent of the total estimated medium recharge (9 inches per year) in the study area. Dilution of nitrogen in septic effluent discharging to the bedrock aquifer was evaluated for the development density in 2001. On the basis of an assumed concentration of 47 mg/L of nitrogen in septic system discharge, dilution factors in populated rural Bar Harbor watersheds ranged from 4 to 151, for the housing density in 2001. Understanding that ground water in this fractured bedrock system mixes slowly, the fully mixed average nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in ground water estimated for the watersheds ranged from 0.1 to 11 mg/L.

Extending the Lincoln-Petersen estimator for multiple identifications in one source.

PubMed

Köse, T; Orman, M; Ikiz, F; Baksh, M F; Gallagher, J; Böhning, D

2014-10-30

The Lincoln-Petersen estimator is one of the most popular estimators used in capture-recapture studies. It was developed for a sampling situation in which two sources independently identify members of a target population. For each of the two sources, it is determined if a unit of the target population is identified or not. This leads to a 2 × 2 table with frequencies f11 ,f10 ,f01 ,f00 indicating the number of units identified by both sources, by the first but not the second source, by the second but not the first source and not identified by any of the two sources, respectively. However, f00 is unobserved so that the 2 × 2 table is incomplete and the Lincoln-Petersen estimator provides an estimate for f00 . In this paper, we consider a generalization of this situation for which one source provides not only a binary identification outcome but also a count outcome of how many times a unit has been identified. Using a truncated Poisson count model, truncating multiple identifications larger than two, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the Poisson parameter and, ultimately, of the population size. This estimator shows benefits, in comparison with Lincoln-Petersen's, in terms of bias and efficiency. It is possible to test the homogeneity assumption that is not testable in the Lincoln-Petersen framework. The approach is applied to surveillance data on syphilis from Izmir, Turkey. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The financial cost of doctors emigrating from sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis.

PubMed

Mills, Edward J; Kanters, Steve; Hagopian, Amy; Bansback, Nick; Nachega, Jean; Alberton, Mark; Au-Yeung, Christopher G; Mtambo, Andy; Bourgeault, Ivy L; Luboga, Samuel; Hogg, Robert S; Ford, Nathan

2011-11-23

To estimate the lost investment of domestically educated doctors migrating from sub-Saharan African countries to Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Human capital cost analysis using publicly accessible data. Sub-Saharan African countries. Nine sub-Saharan African countries with an HIV prevalence of 5% or greater or with more than one million people with HIV/AIDS and with at least one medical school (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and data available on the number of doctors practising in destination countries. The financial cost of educating a doctor (through primary, secondary, and medical school), assuming that migration occurred after graduation, using current country specific interest rates for savings converted to US dollars; cost according to the number of source country doctors currently working in the destination countries; and savings to destination countries of receiving trained doctors. In the nine source countries the estimated government subsidised cost of a doctor's education ranged from $21,000 (£13,000; €15,000) in Uganda to $58,700 in South Africa. The overall estimated loss of returns from investment for all doctors currently working in the destination countries was $2.17bn (95% confidence interval 2.13bn to 2.21bn), with costs for each country ranging from $2.16m (1.55m to 2.78m) for Malawi to $1.41bn (1.38bn to 1.44bn) for South Africa. The ratio of the estimated compounded lost investment over gross domestic product showed that Zimbabwe and South Africa had the largest losses. The benefit to destination countries of recruiting trained doctors was largest for the United Kingdom ($2.7bn) and United States ($846m). Among sub-Saharan African countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, lost investment from the emigration of doctors is considerable. Destination countries should consider investing in measurable training for source countries and strengthening of their health systems.

Exposure to potential occupational asthmogens: prevalence data from the National Occupational Exposure Survey.

PubMed

de la Hoz, R E; Young, R O; Pedersen, D H

1997-02-01

Few data are available about the prevalence of occupational exposures to agents which can cause occupational asthma or aggravate preexisting asthma (asthmogens). Using potential occupational exposure data from the National Occupational Exposure Survey (NOES) of 1980-1983, we investigated the number of asthmogen exposures, asthmogen-exposure(s) per production worker, and unprotected occupational asthmogen exposures in different industries and occupations. Data for the entire United States were used to generate estimates of occupational exposure at two selected state and local levels. It was estimated that 7,864,000 workers in the surveyed industries were potentially exposed to one or more occupational asthmogen(s) in the United States. The average number of observed potential exposures per asthmogen-exposed worker was 4.4, and varied from 11.9, in the Water Transportation industry, to 1.2 in Local and Suburban transportation. The largest number of observed potential exposures was recorded in the Apparel and Other Finished Products (garment) industry. This work and further analyses using this approach are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiology of occupational asthma, and to serve as a guide to target future occupational asthma surveillance efforts.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

Estimating changes in public health following implementation of hazard analysis and critical control point in the United States broiler slaughter industry.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

2012-01-01

A common approach to reducing microbial contamination has been the implementation of a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) program to prevent or reduce contamination during production. One example is the Pathogen Reduction HACCP program implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). This program consisted of a staged implementation between 1996 and 2000 to reduce microbial contamination on meat and poultry products. Of the commodities regulated by FSIS, one of the largest observed reductions was for Salmonella contamination on broiler chicken carcasses. Nevertheless, how this reduction might have influenced the total number of salmonellosis cases in the United States has not been assessed. This study incorporates information from public health surveillance and surveys of the poultry slaughter industry into a model that estimates the number of broiler-related salmonellosis cases through time. The model estimates that-following the 56% reduction in the proportion of contaminated broiler carcasses observed between 1995 and 2000-approximately 190,000 fewer annual salmonellosis cases (attributed to broilers) occurred in 2000 compared with 1995. The uncertainty bounds for this estimate range from approximately 37,000 to 500,000 illnesses. Estimated illnesses prevented, due to the more modest reduction in contamination of 13% between 2000 and 2007, were not statistically significant. An analysis relating the necessary magnitude of change in contamination required for detection via human surveillance also is provided.

Water demand-supply analysis in a large spatial area based on the processes of evapotranspiration and runoff

PubMed Central

Maruyama, Toshisuke

2007-01-01

To estimate the amount of evapotranspiration in a river basin, the “short period water balance method” was formulated. Then, by introducing the “complementary relationship method,” the amount of evapotranspiration was estimated seasonally, and with reasonable accuracy, for both small and large areas. Moreover, to accurately estimate river discharge in the low water season, the “weighted statistical unit hydrograph method” was proposed and a procedure for the calculation of the unit hydrograph was developed. Also, a new model, based on the “equivalent roughness method,” was successfully developed for the estimation of flood runoff from newly reclaimed farmlands. Based on the results of this research, a “composite reservoir model” was formulated to analyze the repeated use of irrigation water in large spatial areas. The application of this model to a number of watershed areas provided useful information with regard to the realities of water demand-supply systems in watersheds predominately dedicated to paddy fields, in Japan. PMID:24367144

Chapter 9: Oil and gas resource potential north of the Arctic Circle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, D.L.; Bird, K.J.; Charpentier, R.R.; Grantz, A.; Houseknecht, D.W.; Klett, T.R.; Moore, Thomas E.; Pitman, Janet K.; Schenk, C.J.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.; Sorensen, K.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Valin, Z.C.; Wandrey, C.J.

2011-01-01

The US Geological Survey recently assessed the potential for undiscovered conventional petroleumin the Arctic. Using a new map compilation of sedimentary elements, the area north of the Arctic Circle was subdivided into 70 assessment units, 48 of which were quantitatively assessed. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) was a geologically based, probabilistic study that relied mainly on burial history analysis and analogue modelling to estimate sizes and numbers of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. The results of the CARA suggest the Arctic is gas-prone with an estimated 770-2990 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered conventional natural gas, most of which is in Russian territory. On an energy-equivalent basis, the quantity of natural gas ismore than three times the quantity of oil and the largest undiscovered gas eld is expected to be about 10 times the size of the largest undiscovered oil eld. In addition to gas, the gas accumulationsmay contain an estimated 39 billion barrels of liquids. The South Kara Sea is themost prospective gas assessment unit, but giant gas elds containingmore than 6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas are possible at a 50%chance in 10 assessment units. Sixty per cent of the estimated undiscovered oil resource is in just six assessment units, of which the Alaska Platform, with 31%of the resource, is the most prospective. Overall, the Arctic is estimated to contain between 44 and 157 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Billion barrel oil elds are possible at a 50%chance in seven assessment units.Undiscovered oil resources could be signicant to the Arctic nations, but are probably not sufcient to shift the world oil balance away from the Middle East. ?? 2011 The Geological Society of London.

Towards efficient multi-scale methods for monitoring sugarcane aphid infestations in sorghum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We discuss approaches and issues involved with developing optimal monitoring methods for sugarcane aphid infestations (SCA) in grain sorghum. We discuss development of sequential sampling methods that allow for estimation of the number of aphids per sample unit, and statistical decision making rela...

75 FR 5565 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-03

... and dynamic construction industry. Given the importance of this industry, several of the statistical... Authorized by Building Permits, (2) Housing Starts, and (3) New One-Family Houses Sold. These statistics help... economic indicators, to estimate the number of housing units started, completed, and sold (single-family...

Potential virus detection and intervention methods for molluscan shellfish

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Norovirus is the number one cause of foodborne illness in the Unites States, causing an estimated 9 million cases/yr. Hepatitis A is uncommon in the US but can result in serious illness. Bivalve shellfish are efficient bioconcentrators of these viruses from contaminated growing waters. Consequentl...

Forest Statistics for New York 1980 and 1993

Treesearch

Carol L. Alerich; David A. Drake; David A. Drake

1995-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest inventory of New York 1991- 1994. Findings are displayed in 155 tables containing estimates of forest area numbers of trees wildlife habitat timber volume growth change and biomass. Data are presented at three levels; state, geographic unit, and county.

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States.

PubMed

Lo, Nathan C; Hotez, Peter J

2017-09-01

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage. To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles. Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales. Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs. A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust. This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

Evaluating call-count procedures for measuring local mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armbruster, M.J.; Baskett, T.S.; Goforth, W.R.; Sadler, K.C.

1978-01-01

Seventy-nine mourning dove call-count runs were made on a 32-km route in Osage County, Missouri, May 1-August 31, 1971 and 1972. Circular study areas, each 61 ha, surrounding stop numbers 4 and 5, were delineated for intensive nest searches and population estimates. Tallies of cooing male doves along the entire call-count route were quite variable in repeated runs, fluctuating as much as 50 percent on consecutive days. There were no consistent relationships between numbers of cooing males tallied at stops 4 and 5 and the numbers of current nests or doves estimated to be present in the surrounding study areas. We doubt the suitability of call-count procedures to estimate precisely the densities of breeding pairs, nests or production of doves on small areas. Our findings do not dispute the usefulness of the national call-count survey as an index to relative densities of mourning doves during the breeding season over large portions of the United States, or as an index to annual population trends.

The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Dunne, Eileen F; Hariri, Susan; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.

Excess Cancers Among HIV-Infected People in the United States

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Shiels, Meredith S.; Li, Jianmin; Hall, H. Irene; Engels, Eric A.

2015-01-01

Background: Nearly 900 000 people in the United States are living with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and therefore increased cancer risk. The total number of cancers occurring among HIV-infected people and the excess number above expected background cases are unknown. Methods: We derived cancer incidence rates for the United States HIV-infected and general populations from Poisson models applied to linked HIV and cancer registry data and from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data, respectively. We applied these rates to estimates of people living with diagnosed HIV at mid-year 2010 to estimate total and expected cancer counts, respectively. We subtracted expected from total cancers to estimate excess cancers. Results: An estimated 7760 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7330 to 8320) cancers occurred in 2010 among HIV-infected people, of which 3920 cancers (95% CI = 3480 to 4470) or 50% (95% CI = 48 to 54%) were in excess of expected. The most common excess cancers were non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL; n = 1440 excess cancers, occurring in 88% excess), Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS, n = 910, 100% excess), anal cancer (n = 740, 97% excess), and lung cancer (n = 440, 52% excess). The proportion of excess cancers that were AIDS defining (ie, KS, NHL, cervical cancer) declined with age and time since AIDS diagnosis (both P < .001). For anal cancer, 83% of excess cases occurred among men who have sex with men, and 71% among those living five or more years since AIDS onset. Among injection drug users, 22% of excess cancers were lung cancer, and 16% were liver cancer. Conclusions: The excess cancer burden in the US HIV population is substantial, and patterns across groups highlight opportunities for cancer control initiatives targeted to HIV-infected people. PMID:25663691

Estimating contraction level using root mean square amplitude in control subjects and patients with neuromuscular disorders.

PubMed

Boe, Shaun G; Rice, Charles L; Doherty, Timothy J

2008-04-01

To assess the utility of the surface electromyographic signal as a means of estimating the level of muscle force during quantitative electromyography studies by examining the relationship between muscle force and the amplitude of the surface electromyographic activity signal; and to determine the impact of a reduction in the number of motor units on this relationship, through inclusion of a sample of patients with neuromuscular disease. Cross-sectional, cohort study design. Tertiary care, ambulatory, electromyography laboratory. A volunteer, convenience sample of healthy control subjects (n=10), patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (n=9), and patients with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type X (n=5). Not applicable. The first dorsal interosseous (FDI) and biceps brachii muscles were examined. Force values (at 10% increments) were calculated from two 4-second maximal voluntary contractions (MVCs). Surface electromyographic activity was recorded during separate 4-second voluntary contractions at 9 force increments (10% -90% of MVC). Additionally, a motor unit number estimate was derived for each subject to quantify the degree of motor unit loss in patients relative to control subjects. The relationships between force and surface electromyographic activity for both muscles (controls and patients) were best fit by a linear function. The variability about the grouped regression lines was quantified by 95% confidence intervals and found to be +/-6.7% (controls) and +/-8.5% (patients) for the FDI and +/-5% (controls) and +/-6.1% (patients) for the biceps brachii. These results suggest that the amplitude of the surface electromyographic activity signal may be used as a means of estimating the level of muscle force during quantitative electromyography studies. Future studies should be directed at examining if the variability associated with these force and surface electromyographic activity relationships is acceptable in replacing previous methods of measuring muscle force.

Excess cancers among HIV-infected people in the United States.

PubMed

Robbins, Hilary A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Shiels, Meredith S; Li, Jianmin; Hall, H Irene; Engels, Eric A

2015-04-01

Nearly 900 000 people in the United States are living with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and therefore increased cancer risk. The total number of cancers occurring among HIV-infected people and the excess number above expected background cases are unknown. We derived cancer incidence rates for the United States HIV-infected and general populations from Poisson models applied to linked HIV and cancer registry data and from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data, respectively. We applied these rates to estimates of people living with diagnosed HIV at mid-year 2010 to estimate total and expected cancer counts, respectively. We subtracted expected from total cancers to estimate excess cancers. An estimated 7760 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7330 to 8320) cancers occurred in 2010 among HIV-infected people, of which 3920 cancers (95% CI = 3480 to 4470) or 50% (95% CI = 48 to 54%) were in excess of expected. The most common excess cancers were non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL; n = 1440 excess cancers, occurring in 88% excess), Kaposi's sarcoma (KS, n = 910, 100% excess), anal cancer (n = 740, 97% excess), and lung cancer (n = 440, 52% excess). The proportion of excess cancers that were AIDS defining (ie, KS, NHL, cervical cancer) declined with age and time since AIDS diagnosis (both P < .001). For anal cancer, 83% of excess cases occurred among men who have sex with men, and 71% among those living five or more years since AIDS onset. Among injection drug users, 22% of excess cancers were lung cancer, and 16% were liver cancer. The excess cancer burden in the US HIV population is substantial, and patterns across groups highlight opportunities for cancer control initiatives targeted to HIV-infected people. Published by Oxford University Press 2015.

Human Resources in Science and Technology in India and the International Mobility of Highly Skilled Indians. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, 2004/7

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khadria, Binod

2004-01-01

This paper provides estimates of the stocks and flows of human resources in science and technology (HRST) in India, and their breakdown by education and occupation. Furthermore, the paper provides estimates of the number of highly skilled people moving to India and out of India during the 1990s, mainly to the United States. This part of the study…

An Exploratory Study of Functional Status in Post Cardiac Arrest Survivors Discharged To Home

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

estimate of the calories burned throughout the day. It measured vertical acceleration (i.e., up and down motion) and total caloric expenditure (i.e...an estimate of caloric expenditure and the intensity of one’s activity; the higher the intensity, the more calories the unit registered. A small...number of daily steps taken. It measures vertical acceleration (i.e., up and down motion) and total caloric expenditure (i.e., the calories one’s

A position paper of the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition. Pediatric gastroenterology Workforce Survey and future supply and demand.

PubMed

Colletti, R B; Winter, H S; Sokol, R J; Suchy, F J; Klish, W J; Durie, P R

1998-01-01

The North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition (NASPGN) performed a Workforce Survey to determine the current number and distribution of pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States and Canada and to estimate the supply and demand in the future in the United States. The response rate was more than 90%. There were 624 pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States, and 48 in Canada. There were 2.4 pediatric gastroenterologists per million population in the United States, ranging from 3.1 per million in the Northeast to 1.9 per million in the West, and 1.6 per million in Canada. In the United States, fewer than 5 pediatric gastroenterologists retire each year, but more than 40 fellows per year complete training. In the United States, 30% of pediatric gastroenterologists believe there is already an excess supply; only 12% believe there is a shortage (p < 0.001). If the number of fellows who complete training each year remains unchanged, in 10 years there will be more than 950 pediatric gastroenterologists in the United States (3.3 per million population). At the same time, if the demand for pediatric gastroenterologists remains 2.4 per million population, there will be a demand for only 675. If these assumptions are correct, it is necessary to reduce the number of fellows to be trained. Although it is difficult to predict future workforce needs reliably, we recommend that the number of fellowship positions in training programs in the United States be reduced by 50% to 75%. Changes in health care in the coming years will be challenging, and effective planning is necessary for pediatric gastroenterologists to achieve their clinical, research, and educational missions.

Computional algorithm for lifetime exposure to antimicrobials in pigs using register data-The LEA algorithm.

PubMed

Birkegård, Anna Camilla; Andersen, Vibe Dalhoff; Halasa, Tariq; Jensen, Vibeke Frøkjær; Toft, Nils; Vigre, Håkan

2017-10-01

Accurate and detailed data on antimicrobial exposure in pig production are essential when studying the association between antimicrobial exposure and antimicrobial resistance. Due to difficulties in obtaining primary data on antimicrobial exposure in a large number of farms, there is a need for a robust and valid method to estimate the exposure using register data. An approach that estimates the antimicrobial exposure in every rearing period during the lifetime of a pig using register data was developed into a computational algorithm. In this approach data from national registers on antimicrobial purchases, movements of pigs and farm demographics registered at farm level are used. The algorithm traces batches of pigs retrospectively from slaughter to the farm(s) that housed the pigs during their finisher, weaner, and piglet period. Subsequently, the algorithm estimates the antimicrobial exposure as the number of Animal Defined Daily Doses for treatment of one kg pig in each of the rearing periods. Thus, the antimicrobial purchase data at farm level are translated into antimicrobial exposure estimates at batch level. A batch of pigs is defined here as pigs sent to slaughter at the same day from the same farm. In this study we present, validate, and optimise a computational algorithm that calculate the lifetime exposure of antimicrobials for slaughter pigs. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing the computed estimates to data on antimicrobial usage from farm records in 15 farm units. We found a good positive correlation between the two estimates. The algorithm was run for Danish slaughter pigs sent to slaughter in January to March 2015 from farms with more than 200 finishers to estimate the proportion of farms that it was applicable for. In the final process, the algorithm was successfully run for batches of pigs originating from 3026 farms with finisher units (77% of the initial population). This number can be increased if more accurate register data can be obtained. The algorithm provides a systematic and repeatable approach to estimating the antimicrobial exposure throughout the rearing period, independent of rearing site for finisher batches, as a lifetime exposure measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1979 Reserve Force Studies Surveys: Survey Design, Sample Design and Administrative Procedures,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-01

three factors: the need for a statistically significant number of usable questionnaires from different groups within the random sampls and from...Because of the multipurpose nature of these surveys and the large number of questions needed to fully address some of the topics covered, we...varies. Collection of data at the unit level is needed to accurately estimate actual reserve compensation and benefits and their possible role in both

Hydraulic Tomography and High-Resolution Slug Testing to Determine Hydraulic Conductivity Distributions

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

Research Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average...REPORT DATE FEB 2011 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Hydraulic Tomography and High-Resolution Slug Testing to...NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Kansas Center for Research 8. PERFORMING

Seeing the forest for the trees: utilizing modified random forests imputation of forest plot data for landscape-level analyses

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark A. Finney

2015-01-01

Mapping the number, size, and species of trees in forests across the western United States has utility for a number of research endeavors, ranging from estimation of terrestrial carbon resources to tree mortality following wildfires. For landscape fire and forest simulations that use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a tree-level dataset, or “tree list”, is a...

Estimating the returns to United Kingdom publicly funded musculoskeletal disease research in terms of net value of improved health outcomes.

PubMed

Glover, Matthew; Montague, Erin; Pollitt, Alexandra; Guthrie, Susan; Hanney, Stephen; Buxton, Martin; Grant, Jonathan

2018-01-10

Building on an approach applied to cardiovascular and cancer research, we estimated the economic returns from United Kingdom public- and charitable-funded musculoskeletal disease (MSD) research that arise from the net value of the improved health outcomes in the United Kingdom. To calculate the economic returns from MSD-related research in the United Kingdom, we estimated (1) the public and charitable expenditure on MSD-related research in the United Kingdom between 1970 and 2013; (2) the net monetary benefit (NMB), derived from the health benefit in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) valued in monetary terms (using a base-case value of a QALY of £25,000) minus the cost of delivering that benefit, for a prioritised list of interventions from 1994 to 2013; (3) the proportion of NMB attributable to United Kingdom research; and (4) the elapsed time between research funding and health gain. The data collected from these four key elements were used to estimate the internal rate of return (IRR) from MSD-related research investments on health benefits. We analysed the uncertainties in the IRR estimate using a one-way sensitivity analysis. Expressed in 2013 prices, total expenditure on MSD-related research from 1970 to 2013 was £3.5 billion, and for the period used to estimate the rate of return, 1978-1997, was £1.4 billion. Over the period 1994-2013 the key interventions analysed produced 871,000 QALYs with a NMB of £16 billion, allowing for the net NHS costs resulting from them and valuing a QALY at £25,000. The proportion of benefit attributable to United Kingdom research was 30% and the elapsed time between funding and impact of MSD treatments was 16 years. Our best estimate of the IRR from MSD-related research was 7%, which is similar to the 9% for CVD and 10% for cancer research. Our estimate of the IRR from the net health gain to public and charitable funding of MSD-related research in the United Kingdom is substantial, and justifies the research investments made between 1978 and 1997. We also demonstrated the applicability of the approach previously used in assessing the returns from cardiovascular and cancer research. Inevitably, with a study of this kind, there are a number of important assumptions and caveats that we highlight, and these can inform future research.

The contribution of viral hepatitis to the burden of chronic liver disease in the United States.

PubMed

Roberts, Henry W; Utuama, Ovie A; Klevens, Monina; Teshale, Eyasu; Hughes, Elizabeth; Jiles, Ruth

2014-03-01

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is increasingly recognized as a major public health problem. However, in the United States, there are few nationally representative data on the contribution of viral hepatitis as an etiology of CLD. We applied a previously used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification-based definition of CLD cases to the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey databases for 2006-2010. We estimated the mean number of CLD visits per year, prevalence ratio of visits by patient characteristics, and the percentage of CLD visits attributed to viral hepatitis and other selected etiologies. An estimated 6.0 billion ambulatory care visits occurred in the United States from 2006 to 2010, of which an estimated 25.8 million (0.43%) were CLD-related. Among adults aged 45-64 years, Medicaid and Medicare recipients were 3.9 (prevalence ratio (PR)=3.9, 95% confidence limit (CL; 2.8, 5.4)) and 2.3 (PR=2.3, 95% CL (1.6, 3.4)) times more likely to have a CLD-related ambulatory visit than those with private insurance, respectively. In the United States, from 2006 to 2010, an estimated 49.6% of all CLD-related ambulatory visits were attributed solely to viral hepatitis B and C diagnoses. In this unique application of health-care utilization data, we confirm that viral hepatitis is an important etiology of CLD in the United States, with hepatitis B and C contributing approximately one-half of the CLD burden. CLD ambulatory visits in the United States disproportionately occur among adults, aged 45-64 years, who are primarily minorities, men, and Medicare or Medicaid recipients.

Accuracy Sampling Design Bias on Coarse Spatial Resolution Land Cover Data in the Great Lakes Region (United States and Canada)

EPA Science Inventory

A number of articles have investigated the impact of sampling design on remotely sensed landcover accuracy estimates. Gong and Howarth (1990) found significant differences for Kappa accuracy values when comparing purepixel sampling, stratified random sampling, and stratified sys...

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FOR EXPOSURE TO REFRIGERANTS USED FOR AUTOMOTIVE AIR CONDITIONING IN THE U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servic...

A Comparison of Missing-Data Procedures for Arima Time-Series Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2005-01-01

Missing data are a common practical problem for longitudinal designs. Time-series analysis is a longitudinal method that involves a large number of observations on a single unit. Four different missing-data methods (deletion, mean substitution, mean of adjacent observations, and maximum likelihood estimation) were evaluated. Computer-generated…

Informal Caregivers: Communication and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitlatch, Carol

2008-01-01

It is estimated that 13 million to 15 million adults in the United States have chronic conditions that impair cognitive function, such as Alzheimer's disease, stroke, Parkinson's disease, and traumatic brain injury. The growing number of people with chronic conditions that include cognitive impairment and the family members who assist them face…

They Remember the "Lost" People.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klages, Karen

Estimates of the number of children currently missing in the United States are only approximate because there is no effective central data bank to collect information on missing persons and unidentified bodies. However, the problem appears to have reached epidemic proportions. Some parents of missing persons have formed organizations in different…

Production and supply of high-quality food protein for human consumption: Sustainability, challenges, and innovations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that 843 million people worldwide are hungry and a greater number suffer from nutrient deficiencies. Approximately one billion people have inadequate protein intake. The challenge of preventing hunger and malnutrition will become ...

FISH SPECIES OCCURRENCE DENSITIES IN NORTHEASTERN LAKES AND THE EXTENT OF NON-NATIVES

EPA Science Inventory

A species' occurrence density is the proportion or number of habitat units (lakes in this case) in a region in which it is present. Reliable estimates of occurrence density should be useful to discussions and decisions about biodiversity, rare species, and non-native invasions. T...

Forest statistics for Pennsylvania--1978 and 1989

Treesearch

Carol L. Alerich; Carol L. Alerich

1993-01-01

A statistical report on the fourth forest survey of Pennsylvania (1988-90). Findings are displayed in 157 tables containing estimates of forest area, numbers of trees, wildlife habitat, tree biomass, timber volume, timber products outp~qg, rowth, and change. Data are presented at three levels: state, geographic unit, and county.

24 CFR 945.203 - Allocation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... housing needs survey, if available, such as the CHAS, for the jurisdiction within which the area served by the PHA is located; (iii) An estimate of the number of potential tenants who will need accessible units based on information provided by: (A) The needs assessment prepared in accordance with 24 CFR 8.25...

75 FR 77866 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-14

... Approval; Comment Request; NSPS for Electric Utility Steam Generating (Renewal) AGENCY: Environmental... the electronic docket, go to http://www.regulations.gov . Title: NSPS for Electric Utility Steam.../Affected Entities: Owners or operators of electric utility steam generating units. Estimated Number of...

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Winn, Bradford; Keyes, Timothy; Kalasz, Kevin S.

2018-01-01

Red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning. 

U.S. Nurse Labor Market Dynamics Are Key to Global Nurse Sufficiency

PubMed Central

Aiken, Linda H

2007-01-01

Objectives To review estimates of U.S. nurse supply and demand, document trends in nurse immigration to the United States and their impact on nursing shortage, and consider strategies for resolving the shortage of nurses in the United States without adversely affecting health care in lower-income countries. Principal Findings Production capacity of nursing schools is lagging current and estimated future needs, suggesting a worsening shortage and creating a demand for foreign-educated nurses. About 8 percent of U.S. registered nurses (RNs), numbering around 219,000, are estimated to be foreign educated. Eighty percent are from lower-income countries. The Philippines is the major source country, accounting for more than 30 percent of U.S. foreign-educated nurses. Nurse immigration to the United States has tripled since 1994, to close to 15,000 entrants annually. Foreign-educated nurses are located primarily in urban areas, most likely to be employed by hospitals, and somewhat more likely to have a baccalaureate degree than native-born nurses. There is little evidence that foreign-educated nurses locate in areas of medical need in any greater proportion than native-born nurses. Although foreign-educated nurses are ethnically more diverse than native-born nurses, relatively small proportions are black or Hispanic. Job growth for RNs in the United States is producing mounting pressure by commercial recruiters and employers to ease restrictions on nurse immigration at the same time that American nursing schools are turning away large numbers of native applicants because of capacity limitations. Conclusions Increased reliance on immigration may adversely affect health care in lower-income countries without solving the U.S. shortage. The current focus on facilitating nurse immigration detracts from the need for the United States to move toward greater self-sufficiency in its nurse workforce. Expanding nursing school capacity to accommodate qualified native applicants and implementing evidence-based initiatives to improve nurse retention and productivity could prevent future nurse shortages. PMID:17489916

US nurse labor market dynamics are key to global nurse sufficiency.

PubMed

Aiken, Linda H

2007-06-01

To review estimates of U.S. nurse supply and demand, document trends in nurse immigration to the United States and their impact on nursing shortage, and consider strategies for resolving the shortage of nurses in the United States without adversely affecting health care in lower-income countries. Production capacity of nursing schools is lagging current and estimated future needs, suggesting a worsening shortage and creating a demand for foreign-educated nurses. About 8 percent of U.S. registered nurses (RNs), numbering around 219,000, are estimated to be foreign educated. Eighty percent are from lower-income countries. The Philippines is the major source country, accounting for more than 30 percent of U.S. foreign-educated nurses. Nurse immigration to the United States has tripled since 1994, to close to 15,000 entrants annually. Foreign-educated nurses are located primarily in urban areas, most likely to be employed by hospitals, and somewhat more likely to have a baccalaureate degree than native-born nurses. There is little evidence that foreign-educated nurses locate in areas of medical need in any greater proportion than native-born nurses. Although foreign-educated nurses are ethnically more diverse than native-born nurses, relatively small proportions are black or Hispanic. Job growth for RNs in the United States is producing mounting pressure by commercial recruiters and employers to ease restrictions on nurse immigration at the same time that American nursing schools are turning away large numbers of native applicants because of capacity limitations. Increased reliance on immigration may adversely affect health care in lower-income countries without solving the U.S. shortage. The current focus on facilitating nurse immigration detracts from the need for the United States to move toward greater self-sufficiency in its nurse workforce. Expanding nursing school capacity to accommodate qualified native applicants and implementing evidence-based initiatives to improve nurse retention and productivity could prevent future nurse shortages.

Cost projections for implementation of safety interventions to prevent transfusion-transmitted Zika virus infection in the United States

PubMed Central

Ellingson, Katherine D.; Sapiano, Mathew R.P.; Haass, Kathryn A.; Savinkina, Alexandra A.; Baker, Misha L.; Henry, Richard A.; Berger, James J.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND In August 2016, the Food and Drug Administration advised US blood centers to screen all whole blood and apheresis donations for Zika virus (ZIKV) with an individual-donor nucleic acid test (ID-NAT) or to use approved pathogen reduction technology (PRT). The cost of implementing this guidance nationally has not been assessed. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Scenarios were constructed to characterize approaches to ZIKV screening, including universal ID-NAT, risk-based seasonal allowance of minipool (MP) NAT by state, and universal MP-NAT. Data from the 2015 National Blood Collection and Utilization Survey (NBCUS) were used to characterize the number of donations nationally and by state. For each scenario, the estimated cost per donor ($3–$9 for MP-NAT, $7–$13 for ID-NAT) was multiplied by the estimated number of relevant donations from the NBCUS. Cost of PRT was calculated by multiplying the cost per unit ($50–$125) by the number of units approved for PRT. Prediction intervals for costs were generated using Monte Carlo simulation methods. RESULTS Screening all donations in the 50 states and DC for ZIKV by ID-NAT would cost $137 million (95% confidence interval [CI], $109–$167) annually. Allowing seasonal MP-NAT in states with lower ZIKV risk could reduce NAT screening costs by 18% to 25%. Application of PRT to all platelet (PLT) and plasma units would cost $213 million (95% CI, $156–$304). CONCLUSION Universal ID-NAT screening for ZIKV will cost US blood centers more than $100 million annually. The high cost of PRT for apheresis PLTs and plasma could be mitigated if, once validated, testing for transfusion transmissible pathogens could be eliminated. PMID:28591470

Study on Prediction of Underwater Radiated Noise from Propeller Tip Vortex Cavitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Takuyoshi; Sato, Kei; Kawakita, Chiharu; Oshima, Akira

2015-12-01

The method to predict underwater radiated noise from tip vortex cavitation was studied. The growth of a single cavitation bubble in tip vortex was estimated by substituting the tip vortex to Rankine combined vortex. The ideal spectrum function for the sound pressure generated by a single cavitation bubble was used, also the empirical factor for the number of collapsed bubbles per unit time was introduced. The estimated noise data were compared with measured ship's ones and it was found out that this method can estimate noise data within 3dB difference.

Lock and Dam Number 8 Hydropower Study; Mississippi River Near LaCrosse, Wisconsin. Supplement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-01-01

unit used in scheme 3 is a standardized module consisting of an axial flow turbine , a speed increasing gear set, and a generator combined in a short...the flow and generating head ranges associated with specific turbine generator sizes, the program produces annual and monthly flow -duration curves and...open flume turbine passing a rated flow of 14O0 eta at a rated head of 9.75 feat. Cost estimates were made for two and four unit plants having

The Impact of Environmental Protection on the Operational Commander’s Warfighting Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-17

as well as the testing of any type of weapons."’ The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea places restrictions on the discharge of oil ...Janeiro, Brazil . The conference, which was sponsored by the United Nations, was a global environmental conference which was attended by a number of...were of mangrove areas along the Saigon River and that a single spraying of defoliants was sufficient to kill the mangrove trees. They estimated that

Methods for estimating the amount of vernal pool habitat in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Meter, R.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.

2008-01-01

The loss of small, seasonal wetlands is a major concern for a variety of state, local, and federal organizations in the northeastern U.S. Identifying and estimating the number of vernal pools within a given region is critical to developing long-term conservation and management strategies for these unique habitats and their faunal communities. We use three probabilistic sampling methods (simple random sampling, adaptive cluster sampling, and the dual frame method) to estimate the number of vernal pools on protected, forested lands. Overall, these methods yielded similar values of vernal pool abundance for each study area, and suggest that photographic interpretation alone may grossly underestimate the number of vernal pools in forested habitats. We compare the relative efficiency of each method and discuss ways of improving precision. Acknowledging that the objectives of a study or monitoring program ultimately determine which sampling designs are most appropriate, we recommend that some type of probabilistic sampling method be applied. We view the dual-frame method as an especially useful way of combining incomplete remote sensing methods, such as aerial photograph interpretation, with a probabilistic sample of the entire area of interest to provide more robust estimates of the number of vernal pools and a more representative sample of existing vernal pool habitats.

Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Request. Summary Justification

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

FISCAL YEAR 2010 BUDGET REQUEST S U M M A R Y J U S T I F I C A T I O N • M A Y 2 0 0 9 U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F D...E F E N S E Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average...Justification 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7

Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisoning in the United States.

PubMed

Pennotti, Radha; Scallan, Elaine; Backer, Lorraine; Thomas, Jerry; Angulo, Frederick J

2013-12-01

Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings are common causes of fish-related foodborne illness in the United States; however, existing surveillance systems underestimate the overall human health impact. This study aimed to describe existing data on ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings from outbreak and poison control center reports and to estimate the overall number of ciguatera and scombroid fish-poisoning illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. We analyzed outbreak data from the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance Systems (FDOSS) from 2000 to 2007 and poison control center call data from the National Poison Data System (NPDS) from 2005 to 2009 for reports of ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings. Using a statistical model with many inputs, we adjusted the outbreak data for undercounting due to underreporting and underdiagnosis to generate estimates. Underreporting and underdiagnosis multipliers were derived from the poison control call data and the published literature. Annually, an average of 15 ciguatera and 28 scombroid fish-poisoning outbreaks, involving a total of 60 and 108 ill persons, respectively, were reported to FDOSS (2000-2007). NPDS reported an average of 173 exposure calls for ciguatoxin and 200 exposure calls for scombroid fish poisoning annually (2005-2009). After adjusting for undercounting, we estimated 15,910 (90% credible interval [CrI] 4140-37,408) ciguatera fish-poisoning illnesses annually, resulting in 343 (90% CrI 69-851) hospitalizations and three deaths (90% CrI 1-7). We estimated 35,142 (90% CrI: 10,496-78,128) scombroid fish-poisoning illnesses, resulting in 162 (90% CrI 0-558) hospitalizations and 0 deaths. Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings affect more Americans than reported in surveillance systems. Although additional data can improve these assessments, the estimated number of illnesses caused by seafood intoxication illuminates this public health problem. Efforts, including education, can reduce ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings.

A variable circular-plot method for estimated bird numbers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, R.T.; Scott, J.M.; Nussbaum, R.A.

1980-01-01

A bird census method is presented that is designed for tall, structurally complex vegetation types, and rugged terrain. With this method the observer counts all birds seen or heard around a station, and estimates the horizontal distance from the station to each bird. Count periods at stations vary according to the avian community and structural complexity of the vegetation. The density of each species is determined by inspecting a histogram of the number of individuals per unit area in concentric bands of predetermined widths about the stations, choosing the band (with outside radius x) where the density begins to decline, and summing the number of individuals counted within the circle of radius x and dividing by the area (Bx2). Although all observations beyond radius x are rejected with this procedure, coefficients of maximum distance.

Cross-cultural Study of Understanding of Scale and Measurement: Does the everyday use of US customary units disadvantage US students?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Cesar

2013-06-01

Following a sociocultural perspective, this study investigates how students who have grown up using the SI (Système International d'Unités) (metric) or US customary (USC) systems of units for everyday use differ in their knowledge of scale and measurement. Student groups were similar in terms of socioeconomic status, curriculum, native language transparency of number word structure, type of school, and makeup by gender and grade level, while varying by native system of measurement. Their performance on several tasks was compared using binary logistic regression, ordinal logistic regression, and analysis of variance, with gender and grade level as covariates. Participants included 17 USC-native and 89 SI-native students in a school in Mexico, and 31 USC-native students in a school in the Midwestern USA. SI-native students performed at a significantly higher level estimating the length of a metre and a conceptual task (coordinating relative size and absolute size). No statistically significant differences were found on tasks involving factual knowledge about objects or units, scale construction, or estimation of other units. USC-native students in the US school performed at a higher level on smallest known object. These findings suggest that the more transparent SI system better supports conceptual thinking about scale and measurement than the idiosyncratic USC system. Greater emphasis on the SI system and more complete adoption of the SI system for everyday life may improve understanding among US students. Advancing sociocultural theory, systems of units were found to mediate learner's understanding of scale and measurement, much as number words mediate counting and problem solving.

Effect of epsilon aminocaproic acid on red-cell transfusion requirements in major spinal surgery.

PubMed

Berenholtz, Sean M; Pham, Julius Cuong; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Atchison, Christine W; Kostuik, John P; Cohen, David B; Nundy, Shantanu; Dorman, Todd; Ness, Paul M; Klag, Michael J; Pronovost, Peter J; Kebaish, Khaled M

2009-09-01

: Randomized, placebo-controlled trial. : To evaluate the efficacy of epsilon aminocaproic acid (EACA) to reduce the number of red-cell (RBC) transfusions in adult patients undergoing major spinal surgery. : Reconstructive spinal surgery is associated with significant blood loss. The number of studies evaluating the efficacy of EACA in adult patients undergoing spinal surgery remains scarce and limited. : EACA (100 mg/kg) or placebo was administered to 182 adult patients after the induction of anesthesia followed by an infusion that was continued for 8 hours after surgery. Primary end points included total allogeneic RBC transfusions through postoperative day 8 and postoperative allogeneic plus autologus RBC transfusions through postoperative day 8. : Mean total allogeneic RBC transfusions were not statistically different between the groups (5.9 units EACA vs. 6.9 units placebo; P = 0.17). Mean postoperative RBC transfusions in the EACA group was less (2.0 units vs. 2.8 units placebo; P = 0.03). There was no significantdifference in mean estimated intraoperative estimated-blood loss (2938 cc EACA vs. 3273 cc placebo; P = 0.32). Mean intensive care unit length of stay was decreased (EACA: 1.8 days vs. 2.8 days placebo; P = 0.04). The incidence of thromboembolic complications was similar (2.2% EACA vs. 6.6% placebo; P = 0.15). : The difference in total allogeneic RBC transfusions between the groups was not statistically significant. EACA was associated with a 30% (0.8 units) reduction in postoperative RBC transfusions and a 1-day reduction in ICU LOS, without an increased incidence of thromboembolic events. EACA may be considered for patients undergoing major spinal surgery. Larger studies are needed to evaluate the relationship between EACA and total RBC requirements.

[AIDS and pain management-a survey of German AIDS and pain management units.].

PubMed

Zech, D; Radbruch, L; Grond, S; Heise, W

1994-06-01

The number of AIDS patients is steadily increasing. According to the literature these patients are often in severe pain. We evaluated pain diagnoses and treatments with two almost identical questionnaires for AIDS treatment units (ATU) and pain management units (PMU). Questions dealt with unit type and size, number of patients treated per year and the proportion of intravenous drug users. The units were also asked to give an estimate of pain aetiologies, pain types and localizations and treatment modalities offered. Completed questionnaires were returned by 38 of 235 ATU and 85 of 127 PMU. In the ATU, 16% of the patients (estimated at 580 patients per year) had pain requiring treatment. In 26 of the PMU approximately 120 AIDS patients per year were treated, while 59 PMU had not yet seen any AIDS patients. Pain was caused mainly by opportunistic infections and by neurological syndromes connected with AIDS. Pain aetiologies could not be differentiated in the ATU in 22% of patients (PMU 9%), and pain types in 33% (PMU 9%). Neuropathic pain (ATU 38%, PMU 89%) was more frequent than nociceptive pain (ATU 29%, PMU 36%). The treatment modalities were systemic pharmacotherapy in 76% of ATU and 73% of PMU and nerve blocks in 37% of ATU and 42% of PMU. In 82% of ATU the staff thought their analgesic therapy was adequate, and in 92% staff were interested in closer cooperation with PMU such as was currently practised in only 6 of the 38 units (16%) that responded. The high incidence of complicated neuropathic pain syndromes in AIDS patients requires a sophisticated therapeutic approach. Closer cooperation between AIDS specialists and pain specialists, comparable to that already existing for other patient groups, is therefore desirable.

Total Lifetime and Cancer-related Costs for Elderly Patients Diagnosed With Anal Cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Deshmukh, Ashish A; Zhao, Hui; Franzini, Luisa; Lairson, David R; Chiao, Elizabeth Y; Das, Prajnan; Swartz, Michael D; Giordano, Sharon H; Cantor, Scott B

2018-02-01

To determine the lifetime and phase-specific cost of anal cancer management and the economic burden of anal cancer care in elderly (66 y and older) patients in the United States. For this study, we used Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare linked database (1992 to 2009). We matched newly diagnosed anal cancer patients (by age and sex) to noncancer controls. We estimated survival time from the date of diagnosis until death. Lifetime and average annual cost by stage and age at diagnosis were estimated by combining survival data with Medicare claims. The average lifetime cost, proportion of patients who were elderly, and the number of incident cases were used to estimate the economic burden. The average lifetime cost for patients with anal cancer was US$50,150 (N=2227) (2014 US dollars). The average annual cost in men and women was US$8025 and US$5124, respectively. The overall survival after the diagnosis of cancer was 8.42 years. As the age and stage at diagnosis increased, so did the cost of cancer-related care. The anal cancer-related lifetime economic burden in Medicare patients in the United States was US$112 million. Although the prevalence of anal cancer among the elderly in the United States is small, its economic burden is considerable.

The potential impact of reducing indoor tanning on melanoma prevention and treatment costs in the United States: An economic analysis.

PubMed

Guy, Gery P; Zhang, Yuanhui; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Rim, Sun Hee; Watson, Meg

2017-02-01

Indoor tanning is associated with an increased risk of melanoma. The US Food and Drug Administration proposed prohibiting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years. We sought to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing indoor tanning in the United States. We used a Markov model to estimate the expected number of melanoma cases and deaths averted, life-years saved, and melanoma treatment costs saved by reducing indoor tanning. We examined 5 scenarios: restricting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years, and reducing the prevalence by 20%, 50%, 80%, and 100%. Restricting indoor tanning among minors younger than 18 years was estimated to prevent 61,839 melanoma cases, prevent 6735 melanoma deaths, and save $342.9 million in treatment costs over the lifetime of the 61.2 million youth age 14 years or younger in the United States. The estimated health and economic benefits increased as indoor tanning was further reduced. Limitations include the reliance on available data and not examining compliance to indoor tanning laws. Reducing indoor tanning has the potential to reduce melanoma incidence, mortality, and treatment costs. These findings help quantify and underscore the importance of continued efforts to reduce indoor tanning and prevent melanoma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

MIMO Radar - Diversity Means Superiority

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-01

Jian 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ESI 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Department of Electrical and...several estimators for the proposed MIMO radar system. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 pres ,lt> t hc MIMO radar...A 17) with 0 denoting the Kronecker product. Substituting Equations (A 9) - (A 7) into (A ()). and after soic ( I I hIx II, nipulations, we get CRB(O

Pandemic influenza-implications for critical care resources in Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

Anderson, Therese A; Hart, Graeme K; Kainer, Marion A

2003-09-01

To quantify resource requirements (additional beds and ventilator capacity), for critical care services in the event of pandemic influenza. Cross-sectional survey about existing and potential critical care resources. Participants comprised 156 of the 176 Australasian (Australia and New Zealand) critical care units on the database of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Research Centre for Critical Care Resources. The Meltzer, Cox and Fukuda model was adapted to map a range of influenza attack rate estimates for hospitalisation and episodes likely to require intensive care and to predict critical care admission rates and bed day requirements. Estimations of ventilation rates were based on those for community-acquired pneumonia. The estimated extra number of persons requiring hospitalisation ranged from 8,455 (10% attack rate) to 150,087 (45% attack rate). The estimated number of additional admissions to critical care units ranged from 423 (5% admission rate, 10% attack rate) to 37,522 (25% admission rate, 45% attack rate). The potential number of required intensive care bed days ranged from 846 bed days (2 day length of stay, 10% attack rate) to 375,220 bed days (10 day length of stay, 45% attack rate). The number of persons likely to require mechanical ventilation ranged from 106 (25% of projected critical care admissions, 10% attack rate) to 28,142 (75% of projected critical care admissions, 45% attack rate). An additional 1,195 emergency ventilator beds were identified in public sector and 248 in private sector hospitals. Cancellation of elective surgery could release a potential 76,402 intensive care bed days (per annum), but in the event of pandemic influenza, 31,150 bed days could be required over an 8- to 12-week period. Australasian critical care services would be overwhelmed in the event of pandemic influenza. More work is required in relation to modelling, contingency plans, and resource allocation.

Contribution of excessive alcohol consumption to deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

PubMed

Stahre, Mandy; Roeber, Jim; Kanny, Dafna; Brewer, Robert D; Zhang, Xingyou

2014-06-26

Excessive alcohol consumption is a leading cause of premature mortality in the United States. The objectives of this study were to update national estimates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States, calculate age-adjusted rates of AAD and YPLL in states, assess the contribution of AAD and YPLL to total deaths and YPLL among working-age adults, and estimate the number of deaths and YPLL among those younger than 21 years. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application for 2006-2010 to estimate total AAD and YPLL across 54 conditions for the United States, by sex and age. AAD and YPLL rates and the proportion of total deaths that were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption among working-age adults (20-64 y) were calculated for the United States and for individual states. From 2006 through 2010, an annual average of 87,798 (27.9/100,000 population) AAD and 2.5 million (831.6/100,000) YPLL occurred in the United States. Age-adjusted state AAD rates ranged from 51.2/100,000 in New Mexico to 19.1/100,000 in New Jersey. Among working-age adults, 9.8% of all deaths in the United States during this period were attributable to excessive drinking, and 69% of all AAD involved working-age adults. Excessive drinking accounted for 1 in 10 deaths among working-age adults in the United States. AAD rates vary across states, but excessive drinking remains a leading cause of premature mortality nationwide. Strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force can help reduce excessive drinking and harms related to it.

Epidemiology of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) in Germany from 2003 to 2009: a risk estimation.

PubMed

Schönberger, Katharina; Ludwig, Maria-Sabine; Wildner, Manfred; Weissbrich, Benedikt

2013-01-01

Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2-48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection.

Epidemiology of Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis (SSPE) in Germany from 2003 to 2009: A Risk Estimation

PubMed Central

Schönberger, Katharina; Ludwig, Maria-Sabine; Wildner, Manfred; Weissbrich, Benedikt

2013-01-01

Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2–48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection. PMID:23874807

The OPTN Deceased Donor Potential Study: Implications for Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Klassen, D K; Edwards, L B; Stewart, D E; Glazier, A K; Orlowski, J P; Berg, C L

2016-06-01

The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) Deceased Donor Potential Study, funded by the Health Resources and Services Administration, characterized the current pool of potential deceased donors and estimated changes through 2020. The goal was to inform policy development and suggest practice changes designed to increase the number of donors and organ transplants. Donor estimates used filtering methodologies applied to datasets from the OPTN, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and used these estimates with the number of actual donors to estimate the potential donor pool through 2020. Projected growth of the donor pool was 0.5% per year through 2020. Potential donor estimates suggested unrealized donor potential across all demographic groups, with the most significant unrealized potential (70%) in the 50-75-year-old age group and potential Donation after Circulatory Death (DCD) donors. Actual transplants that may be realized from potential donors in these categories are constrained by confounding medical comorbidities not identified in administrative databases and by limiting utilization practices for organs from DCD donors. Policy, regulatory, and practice changes encouraging organ procurement and transplantation of a broader population of potential donors may be required to increase transplant numbers in the United States. © Copyright 2016 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Abortion Incidence and Service Availability In the United States, 2014

PubMed Central

Jones, Rachel K.; Jerman, Jenna

2017-01-01

CONTEXT National and state-level information about abortion incidence can help inform policies and programs intended to reduce levels of unintended pregnancy. METHODS In 2015–2016, all U.S. facilities known or expected to have provided abortion services in 2013 or 2014 were surveyed. Data on the number of abortions were combined with population data to estimate national and state-level abortion rates. The number of abortion-providing facilities and changes since a similar 2011 survey were also assessed. The number and type of new abortion restrictions were examined in the states that had experienced the largest proportionate changes in clinics providing abortion services. RESULTS In 2014, an estimated 926,200 abortions were performed in the United States, 12% fewer than in 2011; the 2014 abortion rate was 14.6 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44, representing a 14% decline over this period. The number of clinics providing abortions declined 6% between 2011 and 2014, and declines were steepest in the Midwest (22%) and the South (13%). Early medication abortions accounted for 31% of nonhospital abortions, up from 24% in 2011. Most states that experienced the largest proportionate declines in the number of clinics providing abortions had enacted one or more new restrictions during the study period, but reductions were not always associated with declines in abortion incidence. CONCLUSIONS The relationship between abortion access, as measured by the number of clinics, and abortion rates is not straightforward. Further research is needed to understand the decline in abortion incidence. PMID:28094905

Estimating a just-noticeable difference for ocular comfort in contact lens wearers.

PubMed

Papas, Eric B; Keay, Lisa; Golebiowski, Blanka

2011-06-21

To estimate the just-noticeable difference (JND) in ocular comfort rating by human, contact lens-wearing subjects using 1 to 100 numerical scales. Ostensibly identical, new contact lenses were worn simultaneously in both eyes by 40 subjects who made individual comfort ratings for each eye using a 100-point numerical ratings scale (NRS). Concurrently, interocular preference was indicated on a five-point Likert scale (1 to 5: strongly prefer right, slightly prefer right, no preference, slightly prefer left, strongly prefer left, respectively). Differences in NRS comfort score (ΔC) between the right and left eyes were determined for each Likert scale preference criteria. The distribution of group ΔC scores was examined relative to alternative definitions of JND as a means of estimating its value. For Likert scores indicating the presence of a slight interocular preference, absolute ΔC ranged from 1 to 30 units with a mean of 7.4 ± 1.3 (95% confidence interval) across all lenses and trials. When there was no Likert scale preference expressed between the eyes, absolute ΔC did not exceed 5 units. For ratings of comfort using a 100-point numerical rating scale, the inter-ocular JND is unlikely to be less than 5 units. The estimate for the average value in the population was approximately 7 to 8 units. These numbers indicate the lowest level at which changes in comfort measured with such scales are likely to be clinically significant.

Adaptive MCMC in Bayesian phylogenetics: an application to analyzing partitioned data in BEAST.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

2017-06-15

Advances in sequencing technology continue to deliver increasingly large molecular sequence datasets that are often heavily partitioned in order to accurately model the underlying evolutionary processes. In phylogenetic analyses, partitioning strategies involve estimating conditionally independent models of molecular evolution for different genes and different positions within those genes, requiring a large number of evolutionary parameters that have to be estimated, leading to an increased computational burden for such analyses. The past two decades have also seen the rise of multi-core processors, both in the central processing unit (CPU) and Graphics processing unit processor markets, enabling massively parallel computations that are not yet fully exploited by many software packages for multipartite analyses. We here propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using an adaptive multivariate transition kernel to estimate in parallel a large number of parameters, split across partitioned data, by exploiting multi-core processing. Across several real-world examples, we demonstrate that our approach enables the estimation of these multipartite parameters more efficiently than standard approaches that typically use a mixture of univariate transition kernels. In one case, when estimating the relative rate parameter of the non-coding partition in a heterochronous dataset, MCMC integration efficiency improves by > 14-fold. Our implementation is part of the BEAST code base, a widely used open source software package to perform Bayesian phylogenetic inference. guy.baele@kuleuven.be. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Increases in thyroid nodule fine-needle aspirations, operations, and diagnoses of thyroid cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Sosa, Julie Ann; Hanna, John W; Robinson, Karen A; Lanman, Richard B

2013-12-01

To provide population-based estimates of trends in thyroid nodule fine-needle aspirations (FNA) and operative volumes, we used multiple claims databases to quantify rates of these procedures and their association with the increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States. Private and public insurance claims databases were used to estimate procedure volumes from 2006 to 2011. Rates of FNA and thyroid operations related to thyroid nodules were defined by CPT4 codes associated with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision Clinical Modification codes for nontoxic uni- or multinodular goiter and thyroid neoplasms. Use of thyroid FNA more than doubled during the 5-year study period (16% annual growth). The number of thyroid operations performed for thyroid nodules increased by 31%. Total thyroidectomies increased by 12% per year, whereas lobectomies increased only 1% per year. In 2011, total thyroidectomies accounted for more than half (56%) of the operations for thyroid neoplasms in the United States. Thyroid operations became increasingly (62%) outpatient procedures. Thyroid FNA and operative procedures have increased rapidly in the United States, with an associated increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer. The more substantial increase in number of total versus partial thyroid resections suggests that patients undergoing thyroid operation are perceived to have a greater risk of cancer as determined by preoperative assessments, but this trend could also increase detection of incidental microcarcinomas. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Notes from the Field: Cluster of Tuberculosis Cases Among Marshallese Persons Residing in Arkansas - 2014-2015.

PubMed

Rothfeldt, Laura Lester; Patil, Naveen; Haselow, Dirk T; Williams, Sandy Hainline; Wheeler, J Gary; Mukasa, Leonard N

2016-08-26

During early September 2014, the Arkansas Department of Health identified an increased number of tuberculosis (TB) cases among a unique population in a well-circumscribed geographical area in northwest Arkansas. The Compact of Free Association Act of 1985 (Public Law 99-239, amended in 2003 by Public Law 108-188) established the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) as an independent nation, and persons from the RMI can travel freely (with valid RMI passport) to and from the United States as nonimmigrants without visas (1). Marshallese started settling in northwest Arkansas during the early 1990s because of employment and educational opportunities (2). According to the 2010 Census, an estimated 4,300 Marshallese resided in Arkansas (2), mostly within one county which ranked 6th in the United States for counties with the highest percentage of Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders (3). It is estimated that this number has been growing steadily each year since the 2010 Census; however, obtaining an accurate count is difficult. The RMI is a TB high-incidence country, with a case-rate of 212.7 per 100,000 persons for 2014, whereas the case-rate was 3.1 per 100,000 persons in Arkansas and 2.9 per 100,000 persons in the United States (4,5). Screening for either active TB or latent TB infection (LTBI) is not required for Marshallese entry to the United States (1).

Estimating the waiting time of multi-priority emergency patients with downstream blocking.

PubMed

Lin, Di; Patrick, Jonathan; Labeau, Fabrice

2014-03-01

To characterize the coupling effect between patient flow to access the emergency department (ED) and that to access the inpatient unit (IU), we develop a model with two connected queues: one upstream queue for the patient flow to access the ED and one downstream queue for the patient flow to access the IU. Building on this patient flow model, we employ queueing theory to estimate the average waiting time across patients. Using priority specific wait time targets, we further estimate the necessary number of ED and IU resources. Finally, we investigate how an alternative way of accessing ED (Fast Track) impacts the average waiting time of patients as well as the necessary number of ED/IU resources. This model as well as the analysis on patient flow can help the designer or manager of a hospital make decisions on the allocation of ED/IU resources in a hospital.

Estimation of Geodetic and Geodynamical Parameters with VieVS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spicakova, Hana; Bohm, Johannes; Bohm, Sigrid; Nilsson, tobias; Pany, Andrea; Plank, Lucia; Teke, Kamil; Schuh, Harald

2010-01-01

Since 2008 the VLBI group at the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics at TU Vienna has focused on the development of a new VLBI data analysis software called VieVS (Vienna VLBI Software). One part of the program, currently under development, is a unit for parameter estimation in so-called global solutions, where the connection of the single sessions is done by stacking at the normal equation level. We can determine time independent geodynamical parameters such as Love and Shida numbers of the solid Earth tides. Apart from the estimation of the constant nominal values of Love and Shida numbers for the second degree of the tidal potential, it is possible to determine frequency dependent values in the diurnal band together with the resonance frequency of Free Core Nutation. In this paper we show first results obtained from the 24-hour IVS R1 and R4 sessions.

Abundance and distribution of feral pigs at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, 2010-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Leopold, Christina R.; Kendall, Steven J.

2013-01-01

The Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex has intensively managed feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and monitored feral pig presence with surveys of all managed areas since 1988. Results of all available data regarding pig management activities through 2004 were compiled and analyzed, but no further analyses had been conducted since then. The objective of this report was to analyze recent feral ungulate surveys at the Hakalau Forest Unit to determine current pig abundance and distribution. Activity indices for feral pigs, consisting of the presence of fresh or intermediate sign at 422 stations, each with approximately 20 sample plots, were compiled for years 2010–2013. A calibrated model based on the number of pigs removed from one management unit and concurrent activity surveys was applied to estimate pig abundance in other management units. Although point estimates appeared to decrease from 489.1 (±105.6) in 2010 to 407.6 (±88.0) in 2013, 95% confidence intervals overlapped, indicating no significant change in pig abundance within all management units. Nonetheless, there were significant declines in pig abundance over the four-year period within management units 1, 6, and 7. Areas where pig abundance remained high include the southern portion of Unit 2. Results of these surveys will be useful for directing management actions towards specific management units.

A major impact of the influenza seasonal epidemic on intensive care units, Réunion, April to August 2016.

PubMed

Filleul, Laurent; Ranoaritiana, Dany Bakoly; Balleydier, Elsa; Vandroux, David; Ferlay, Clémence; Jaffar-Bandjee, Marie-Christine; Jaubert, Julien; Roquebert, Bénédicte; Lina, Bruno; Valette, Martine; Hubert, Bruno; Larrieu, Sophie; Brottet, Elise

2016-11-24

The 2016 seasonal influenza in Réunion in the southern hemisphere, was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (possibly genogroup 6B.1). An estimated 100,500 patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI) consulted a physician (cumulative attack rate 11.9%). Sixty-six laboratory-confirmed cases (65.7/100,000 ARI consultations) were hospitalised in an intensive care unit, the highest number since 2009. Impact on intensive care units was major. Correlation between severe cases was 0.83 between Réunion and France and good for 2009 to 2015. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.

A major impact of the influenza seasonal epidemic on intensive care units, Réunion, April to August 2016

PubMed Central

Filleul, Laurent; Ranoaritiana, Dany Bakoly; Balleydier, Elsa; Vandroux, David; Ferlay, Clémence; Jaffar-Bandjee, Marie-Christine; Jaubert, Julien; Roquebert, Bénédicte; Lina, Bruno; Valette, Martine; Hubert, Bruno; Larrieu, Sophie; Brottet, Elise

2016-01-01

The 2016 seasonal influenza in Réunion in the southern hemisphere, was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (possibly genogroup 6B.1). An estimated 100,500 patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI) consulted a physician (cumulative attack rate 11.9%). Sixty-six laboratory-confirmed cases (65.7/100,000 ARI consultations) were hospitalised in an intensive care unit, the highest number since 2009. Impact on intensive care units was major. Correlation between severe cases was 0.83 between Réunion and France and good for 2009 to 2015. PMID:27918264

Juvenile Arrests, 1999. Juvenile Justice Bulletin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Howard N.

This bulletin presents a summary and analysis of national and state juvenile arrest data for 1999. Data come from the FBI's annual "Crime in the United States" report, which offers the estimated number of crimes reported to law enforcement agencies. The 1999 murder rate was the lowest since 1966. Of the nearly 1,800 juveniles murdered in…

Requirement definition of passenger motor transport enterprises for spare parts by method of short-term combined forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulatov, S. V.

2018-05-01

The article considers the method of short-term combined forecasting, which includes theoretical and experimental estimates of the need for details of units and assemblies, which allows obtaining the optimum number of spare parts necessary for rolling stock operation without downtime in repair areas.

26 CFR 1.615-3 - Election to defer pre-1970 exploration expenditures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... mine or other natural deposit, retaining an economic interest therein, shall deduct an amount... to be received. (2) Where a taxpayer receives an amount, in addition to retaining an economic.... The principles outlined in § 1.611-2 are applicable in estimating the number of units remaining as of...

Understanding the Plight of Immigrant and Refugee Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruiz, Melissa; Kabler, Brenda; Sugarman, Melissa

2011-01-01

Refugee and immigrant children constitute one of the fastest growing groups in the United States, with numbers increasing to an estimated 9 million children by the end of 2010. The Upper Darby School District, located in the southeast corner of Pennsylvania, has witnessed the rapid growth of a diverse immigrant and refugee population during the…

Resources for Increasing Physical Activity in Children and Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Carol A.; Beighle, Aaron

2010-01-01

The number of children and youth who are overweight has reached epidemic proportions in the United States. According to the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), an estimated 17 percent of children and adolescents ages 2-19 years are obese. In…

76 FR 51472 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-18

... CUBES. Form: PD F 1832 E. Abstract: Used to certify assignments of U.S. registered definitive securities. Affected Public: Individuals or Households. Estimated Total Burden Hours: 1,250. OMB Number: 1535-0113... Consent with Respect to United States Savings Bond/Notes. Form: PD F 1849 E. Abstract: Used to obtain a...

Framework for improved confidence in modeled nitrous oxide estimates for biofuel regulatory standards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There is a large variation in local commodity prices across the United States, with farmers receiving less for their soybeans produced on their farm, and paying more for meal to feed their livestock, thereby reducing their profitability. This price differential is due to a number of factors includin...

Compromised Futures: Indiana's Children in Poverty. Occasional Paper No. 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Judith B.

The number of poor children in the United States is high, and estimates suggest that poverty among Indiana's children is increasing at twice the national rate. Presently, Indiana does not have readily available, comprehensive information about the state's children and adolescents. There are few ways to link Indiana's poverty data to other…

Research-Based Educational Practices for Students with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Joseph B.; Hughes, Elizabeth M.; Katsiyannis, Antonis; McDaniel, Melanie; Sprinkle, Cynthia

2011-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has become the fastest growing disability in the United States, with current prevalence rates estimated at as many as 1 in 110 children (CDC, 2010). This increase in the number of students identified with ASD has significant implications for public schools. The most popular research-based educational practices for…

77 FR 23244 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; NSPS for Other Solid Waste... information about the electronic docket, go to www.regulations.gov . Title: NSPS for Other Solid Waste...: Owners and operators of other solid waste incineration units. Estimated Number of Respondents: 0...

Comparison of Imputation Procedures for Replacing Denied-access Plots

Treesearch

Susan L. King

2005-01-01

In forest inventories, missing plots are caused by hazardous terrain, inaccessible locations, or denied access. Maryland had a large number of denied-access plots in the latest periodic inventory conducted by the Northeastern Forest Inventory and Analysis unit. The denial pattern, which can introduce error into the estimates, was investigated by dropping the 1999...

Predicting the effect of maternal docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplementation to reduce early preterm birth in Australia and the United States using results of within country randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Yelland, LN; Gajewski, BJ; Colombo, J; Gibson, RA; Makrides, M; Carlson, SE

2016-01-01

SUMMARY The DHA to Optimize Mother Infant Outcome (DOMInO) and Kansas DHA Outcomes Study (KUDOS) were randomized controlled trials that supplemented mothers with 800 and 600 mg DHA/day, respectively, or a placebo during pregnancy. DOMInO was conducted in Australia and KUDOS in the United States. Both trials found an unanticipated and statistically significant reduction in early preterm birth (ePTB; i.e., birth before 34 weeks gestation). However, in each trial, the number of ePTBs were small. We used a novel Bayesian approach and an arbitrary sample of 120,000 pregnancies to estimate statistically derived low, moderate or high risk for ePTB, and to test for differences between the DHA and placebo groups. In both trials, the model predicted DHA would significantly reduce the expected proportion of deliveries in the high risk group under the trial conditions of the parent studies. From these proportions we estimated the number of ePTB that could be prevented. PMID:27637340

[Geographical coverage of the Mexican Healthcare System and a spatial analysis of utilization of its General Hospitals in 1998].

PubMed

Hernández-Avila, Juan E; Rodríguez, Mario H; Rodríguez, Norma E; Santos, René; Morales, Evangelina; Cruz, Carlos; Sepúlveda-Amor, Jaime

2002-01-01

To describe the geographical coverage of the Mexican Healthcare System (MHS) services and to assess the utilization of its General Hospitals. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to include sociodemographic data by locality, the geographical location of all MHS healthcare services, and data on hospital discharge records. A maximum likelihood estimation model was developed to assess the utilization levels of 217 MHS General Hospitals. The model included data on human resources, additional infrastructure, and the population within a 25 km radius. In 1998, 10,806 localities with 72 million inhabitants had at least one public healthcare unit, and 97.2% of the population lived within 50 km of a healthcare unit; however, over 18 million people lived in rural localities without a healthcare unit. The mean annual hospital occupation rate was 48.5 +/- 28.5 per 100 bed/years, with high variability within and between states. Hospital occupation was significantly associated with the number of physicians in the unit, and in the Mexican Institute of Social Security units utilization was associated with additional health infrastructure, and with the population's poverty index. GIS analysis allows improved estimation of the coverage and utilization of MHS hospitals.

Garment Counting in a Textile Warehouse by Means of a Laser Imaging System

PubMed Central

Martínez-Sala, Alejandro Santos; Sánchez-Aartnoutse, Juan Carlos; Egea-López, Esteban

2013-01-01

Textile logistic warehouses are highly automated mechanized places where control points are needed to count and validate the number of garments in each batch. This paper proposes and describes a low cost and small size automated system designed to count the number of garments by processing an image of the corresponding hanger hooks generated using an array of phototransistors sensors and a linear laser beam. The generated image is processed using computer vision techniques to infer the number of garment units. The system has been tested on two logistic warehouses with a mean error in the estimated number of hangers of 0.13%. PMID:23628760

Garment counting in a textile warehouse by means of a laser imaging system.

PubMed

Martínez-Sala, Alejandro Santos; Sánchez-Aartnoutse, Juan Carlos; Egea-López, Esteban

2013-04-29

Textile logistic warehouses are highly automated mechanized places where control points are needed to count and validate the number of garments in each batch. This paper proposes and describes a low cost and small size automated system designed to count the number of garments by processing an image of the corresponding hanger hooks generated using an array of phototransistors sensors and a linear laser beam. The generated image is processed using computer vision techniques to infer the number of garment units. The system has been tested on two logistic warehouses with a mean error in the estimated number of hangers of 0.13%.

Optimal estimation for the satellite attitude using star tracker measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, J. T.-H.

1986-01-01

An optimal estimation scheme is presented, which determines the satellite attitude using the gyro readings and the star tracker measurements of a commonly used satellite attitude measuring unit. The scheme is mainly based on the exponential Fourier densities that have the desirable closure property under conditioning. By updating a finite and fixed number of parameters, the conditional probability density, which is an exponential Fourier density, is recursively determined. Simulation results indicate that the scheme is more accurate and robust than extended Kalman filtering. It is believed that this approach is applicable to many other attitude measuring units. As no linearization and approximation are necessary in the approach, it is ideal for systems involving high levels of randomness and/or low levels of observability and systems for which accuracy is of overriding importance.

Epidemiology and costs of cervical cancer screening and cervical dysplasia in Italy

PubMed Central

Rossi, Paolo Giorgi; Ricciardi, Alessandro; Cohet, Catherine; Palazzo, Fabio; Furnari, Giacomo; Valle, Sabrina; Largeron, Nathalie; Federici, Antonio

2009-01-01

Background We estimated the number of women undergoing cervical cancer screening annually in Italy, the rates of cervical abnormalities detected, and the costs of screening and management of abnormalities. Methods The annual number of screened women was estimated from National Health Interview data. Data from the Italian Group for Cervical Cancer Screening were used to estimate the number of positive, negative and unsatisfactory Pap smears. The incidence of CIN (cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia) was estimated from the Emilia Romagna Cancer Registry. Patterns of follow-up and treatment costs were estimated using a typical disease management approach based on national guidelines and data from the Italian Group for Cervical Cancer Screening. Treatment unit costs were obtained from Italian National Health Service and Hospital Information System of the Lazio Region. Results An estimated 6.4 million women aged 25–69 years undergo screening annually in Italy (1.2 million and 5.2 million through organized and opportunistic screening programs, respectively). Approximately 2.4% of tests have positive findings. There are approximately 21,000 cases of CIN1 and 7,000–17,000 cases of CIN2/3. Estimated costs to the healthcare service amount to €158.5 million for screening and €22.9 million for the management of cervical abnormalities. Conclusion Although some cervical abnormalities might have been underestimated, the total annual cost of cervical cancer prevention in Italy is approximately €181.5 million, of which 87% is attributable to screening. PMID:19243586

Innervation zones of fasciculating motor units: observations by a linear electrode array.

PubMed

Jahanmiri-Nezhad, Faezeh; Barkhaus, Paul E; Rymer, William Z; Zhou, Ping

2015-01-01

This study examines the innervation zone (IZ) in the biceps brachii muscle in healthy subjects and those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using a 20-channel linear electromyogram (EMG) electrode array. Raster plots of individual waveform potentials were studied to estimate the motor unit IZ. While this work mainly focused on fasciculation potentials (FPs), a limited number of motor unit potentials (MUPs) from voluntary activity of 12 healthy and seven ALS subjects were also examined. Abnormal propagation of MUPs and scattered IZs were observed in fasciculating units, compared with voluntarily activated MUPs in healthy and ALS subjects. These findings can be related to muscle fiber reinnervation following motor neuron degeneration in ALS and the different origin sites of FPs compared with voluntary MUPs.

Cost of vaccinating refugees overseas versus after arrival in the United States, 2005.

PubMed

2008-03-07

Since 2000, approximately 50,000 refugees have entered the United States each year from various regions of the world. Although persons with immigrant status are legally required to be vaccinated before entering the United States, this requirement does not extend to U.S.-bound persons with refugee status. After 1 year in the United States, refugees can apply for a change of status to that of legal permanent resident, at which time they are required to be fully vaccinated in accordance with recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). A potentially less costly alternative might be to vaccinate U.S.-bound refugees overseas routinely, before they depart from refugee camps. To compare the cost of vaccinating refugees overseas versus after their arrival in the United States, CDC analyzed 2005 data on the number of refugees, cost of vaccine, and cost of vaccine administration. This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which suggested that, in 2005, vaccinating 50,787 refugees overseas would have cost an estimated $7.7 million, less than one third of the estimated $26.0 million cost of vaccinating in the United States. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the U.S. health-care system. To achieve public health cost savings, routine overseas vaccination of U.S.-bound refugees should be considered.

Development of quantitative exposure data for a pooled exposure-response analysis of 10 silica cohorts.

PubMed

Mannetje, Andrea 't; Steenland, Kyle; Checkoway, Harvey; Koskela, Riitta-Sisko; Koponen, Matti; Attfield, Michael; Chen, Jingqiong; Hnizdo, Eva; DeKlerk, Nicholas; Dosemeci, Mustafa

2002-08-01

Comprehensive quantitative silica exposure estimates over time, measured in the same units across a number of cohorts, would make possible a pooled exposure-response analysis for lung cancer. Such an analysis would help clarify the continuing controversy regarding whether silica causes lung cancer. Existing quantitative exposure data for 10 silica-exposed cohorts were retrieved from the original investigators. Occupation- and time-specific exposure estimates were either adopted/adapted or developed for each cohort, and converted to milligram per cubic meter (mg/m(3)) respirable crystalline silica. Quantitative exposure assignments were typically based on a large number (thousands) of raw measurements, or otherwise consisted of exposure estimates by experts (for two cohorts). Median exposure level of the cohorts ranged between 0.04 and 0.59 mg/m(3) respirable crystalline silica. Exposure estimates were partially validated via their successful prediction of silicosis in these cohorts. Existing data were successfully adopted or modified to create comparable quantitative exposure estimates over time for 10 silica-exposed cohorts, permitting a pooled exposure-response analysis. The difficulties encountered in deriving common exposure estimates across cohorts are discussed. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Diabetic foot units in Spain: knowing the facts using a questionnaire.

PubMed

Rubio, José Antonio; Aragón-Sánchez, Javier; Lázaro-Martínez, José L; Almaraz, María Cruz; Mauricio, Didac; Antolín Santos, Juan B; Díaz Pérez, José Ángel; Fabbi, Matteo; Lozano Del Hoyo, María Luisa; Vela, María Pilar

2014-02-01

To ascertain the number of diabetic foot units (DFUs) in Spain, the specialists working in them, and the population covered by them. The Spanish Group on the Diabetic Foot (SGDF) prepared and agreed a questionnaire based on the recommendations of the 2011 International Consensus on the Diabetic Foot (ICDF). From October to December 2012, the questionnaire was sent to members of three scientific societies formed by professionals involved in the care of patients with diabetes mellitus. Population coverage of the responding centers and DFUs was estimated using the 2012 population census. Seventy five questionnaires were received, 64 of them from general hospitals, which accounted for 13% of the general hospitals of the National Health System. It was calculated that they provided coverage to 43% of the population. Thirty four centers answered that they had a DFU. Specialized diabetic foot care was only provided to 25% of the population. The number of different professionals working at diabetic foot units was 6.3±2.7. Classification of DFUs based on their complexity was as follows: 5 basic units (14.7%), 20 intermediate units (58.8%), and 9 excellence units (26.5%). The number of DFUs reported in this study in Spain is low, and allow for foot care of only one out of every four patients with diabetes. Spanish health system needs to improve diabetic foot care by creating new DFUs and improving the existing ones. Copyright © 2013 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A CU-Level Rate and Distortion Estimation Scheme for RDO of Hardware-Friendly HEVC Encoders Using Low-Complexity Integer DCTs.

PubMed

Lee, Bumshik; Kim, Munchurl

2016-08-01

In this paper, a low complexity coding unit (CU)-level rate and distortion estimation scheme is proposed for High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) hardware-friendly implementation where a Walsh-Hadamard transform (WHT)-based low-complexity integer discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for distortion estimation. Since HEVC adopts quadtree structures of coding blocks with hierarchical coding depths, it becomes more difficult to estimate accurate rate and distortion values without actually performing transform, quantization, inverse transform, de-quantization, and entropy coding. Furthermore, DCT for rate-distortion optimization (RDO) is computationally high, because it requires a number of multiplication and addition operations for various transform block sizes of 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-orders and requires recursive computations to decide the optimal depths of CU or transform unit. Therefore, full RDO-based encoding is highly complex, especially for low-power implementation of HEVC encoders. In this paper, a rate and distortion estimation scheme is proposed in CU levels based on a low-complexity integer DCT that can be computed in terms of WHT whose coefficients are produced in prediction stages. For rate and distortion estimation in CU levels, two orthogonal matrices of 4×4 and 8×8 , which are applied to WHT that are newly designed in a butterfly structure only with addition and shift operations. By applying the integer DCT based on the WHT and newly designed transforms in each CU block, the texture rate can precisely be estimated after quantization using the number of non-zero quantized coefficients and the distortion can also be precisely estimated in transform domain without de-quantization and inverse transform required. In addition, a non-texture rate estimation is proposed by using a pseudoentropy code to obtain accurate total rate estimates. The proposed rate and the distortion estimation scheme can effectively be used for HW-friendly implementation of HEVC encoders with 9.8% loss over HEVC full RDO, which much less than 20.3% and 30.2% loss of a conventional approach and Hadamard-only scheme, respectively.

Evaluating Patient Activation Measure (PAM) Scores and Readmission Rates Following Implementation of a Nurse-Initiated Multi-Faceted Strategy for Patients on a U.S. Navy Inpatient Oncology Unit: A Quality Improvement Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-30

5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A of a Nurse-Initiated Multi-Faceted Strategy for Patients on a U.S. Navy Inpatient Oncology Unit: A Quality...13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES N/A 14. ABSTRACT Background: Chronically ill patients often experience multiple hospitalizations. Oncology patients...have been shown to have more readmissions to the hospital than non- oncology patients. Recent reports estimate a $17.4 billion cost burden is

Adherence to the Otitis Media with Effusion Clinical Practice Guideline By Providers in a United States Air Force Medical Treatment Facility

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-03-18

In the United States, office visits for otitis media increased by 150 percent between 1975 and 1990, to 24.5 million (annually), with children under...visits for otitis media , they also had the greatest increase in number of visits between 1975 and 1990: 224 percent. Of significance, is the increase in...expenditure. Gates (1996) estimated the costs to be about five billion dollars annually. Cost is not the only factor important in the management of otitis media with

Impact of the HIV Epidemic on the Incidence Rates of Anal Cancer in the United States

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The risk of anal cancer is substantially increased in HIV-infected individuals. Thus, the HIV epidemic may have influenced the increasing anal cancer trends in the United States. We estimated the impact of the HIV epidemic on trends in anal cancer incidence in the United States during 1980–2005. Methods Data on anal cancer cases with and without AIDS were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study. The number of HIV-infected anal cancer cases without AIDS was estimated from the number of anal cancers occurring before diagnosis of AIDS. The proportion of anal cancer cases with HIV infection in the general population was calculated. We estimated temporal trends in the incidence rates of anal cancer in the general population overall and after exclusion of HIV-infected cancer cases by calculating annual percent changes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a Joinpoint log-linear model. All incidence rates were standardized to the 2000 US population by age, sex, and race. Results During 1980–2005, of the 20 533 estimated anal cancer cases, 1665 (8.1%) were HIV-infected. During 2001–2005, the proportion of anal cancer cases with HIV infection was the highest—1.2% (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.4%) among females and 28.4% (95% CI = 26.6 to 29.4%) among males. During 1980–2005, HIV infection did not have an impact on the trends in anal cancer among females (incidence rates increased by 3.3% [95% CI = 3.0 to 3.7%] annually overall, and by 3.3% [95% CI = 2.9 to 3.6%] annually without HIV-infected anal cancer cases) but had a strong impact on the trends in anal cancer among males (incidence rates increased by 3.4% [95% CI = 2.9 to 3.9%] annually overall, and by 1.7% [95% CI = 1.2 to 2.3%] annually without HIV infection). Conclusion During 1980–2005, the increasing anal cancer incidence rates in the United States were strongly influenced by the HIV epidemic in males but were independent of HIV infection in females. PMID:23042932

The financial cost of doctors emigrating from sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis

PubMed Central

Kanters, Steve; Hagopian, Amy; Bansback, Nick; Nachega, Jean; Alberton, Mark; Au-Yeung, Christopher G; Mtambo, Andy; Bourgeault, Ivy L; Luboga, Samuel; Hogg, Robert S; Ford, Nathan

2011-01-01

Objective To estimate the lost investment of domestically educated doctors migrating from sub-Saharan African countries to Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Design Human capital cost analysis using publicly accessible data. Settings Sub-Saharan African countries. Participants Nine sub-Saharan African countries with an HIV prevalence of 5% or greater or with more than one million people with HIV/AIDS and with at least one medical school (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and data available on the number of doctors practising in destination countries. Main outcome measures The financial cost of educating a doctor (through primary, secondary, and medical school), assuming that migration occurred after graduation, using current country specific interest rates for savings converted to US dollars; cost according to the number of source country doctors currently working in the destination countries; and savings to destination countries of receiving trained doctors. Results In the nine source countries the estimated government subsidised cost of a doctor’s education ranged from $21 000 (£13 000; €15 000) in Uganda to $58 700 in South Africa. The overall estimated loss of returns from investment for all doctors currently working in the destination countries was $2.17bn (95% confidence interval 2.13bn to 2.21bn), with costs for each country ranging from $2.16m (1.55m to 2.78m) for Malawi to $1.41bn (1.38bn to 1.44bn) for South Africa. The ratio of the estimated compounded lost investment over gross domestic product showed that Zimbabwe and South Africa had the largest losses. The benefit to destination countries of recruiting trained doctors was largest for the United Kingdom ($2.7bn) and United States ($846m). Conclusions Among sub-Saharan African countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, lost investment from the emigration of doctors is considerable. Destination countries should consider investing in measurable training for source countries and strengthening of their health systems. PMID:22117056

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

PubMed

Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Population size of island loggerhead shrikes on Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Teel, Susan; Hall, Linnea S.; Dye, Linda C.; Laughrin, Lyndal L.

2012-01-01

Island loggerhead shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus anthonyi) are an endemic, genetically distinct subspecies of loggerhead shrike on California's Santa Rosa, Santa Cruz, and Santa Catalina Islands (USA). This subspecies is listed as a Species of Special Concern by the California Department of Fish and Game and has been petitioned for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. The combination of suspected low numbers and the possibility of federal listing, prompted us to undertake a study to rigorously estimate the number of remaining individuals on Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands. During the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons, we surveyed sample units on Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands using a double-observer method with independent observers to estimate joint detection probabilities (p), where we selected units under a stratified random sampling design. We estimated shrike abundance to be 169 in 2009 (p = 0.476) and 240 in 2010 (p = 0.825) for Santa Rosa Island, and 35 in 2009 (p = 0.816) and 42 in 2010 (p = 0.710) for Santa Cruz Island. These numbers, especially for Santa Rosa Island, are higher than previously reported but nevertheless are still low. Rapid vegetation change on both islands due to recent removal of nonnative herbivores may threaten the habitat and status of this subspecies and, therefore, we suggest that intensive demographic and habitat use research be initiated immediately to obtain additional information vital for the management of this subspecies. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

PubMed

Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

2014-01-01

HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

Estimates of electricity requirements for the recovery of mineral commodities, with examples applied to sub-Saharan Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleiwas, Donald I.

2011-01-01

To produce materials from mine to market it is necessary to overcome obstacles that include the force of gravity, the strength of molecular bonds, and technological inefficiencies. These challenges are met by the application of energy to accomplish the work that includes the direct use of electricity, fossil fuel, and manual labor. The tables and analyses presented in this study contain estimates of electricity consumption for the mining and processing of ores, concentrates, intermediate products, and industrial and refined metallic commodities on a kilowatt-hour per unit basis, primarily the metric ton or troy ounce. Data contained in tables pertaining to specific currently operating facilities are static, as the amount of electricity consumed to process or produce a unit of material changes over time for a great number of reasons. Estimates were developed from diverse sources that included feasibility studies, company-produced annual and sustainability reports, conference proceedings, discussions with government and industry experts, journal articles, reference texts, and studies by nongovernmental organizations.

Variability in Costs across Hospital Wards. A Study of Chinese Hospitals

PubMed Central

Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B.; Ying, Bian; Murray, Christopher J. L.

2014-01-01

Introduction Analysts estimating the costs or cost-effectiveness of health interventions requiring hospitalization often cut corners because they lack data and the costs of undertaking full step-down costing studies are high. They sometimes use the costs taken from a single hospital, sometimes use simple rules of thumb for allocating total hospital costs between general inpatient care and the outpatient department, and sometimes use the average cost of an inpatient bed-day instead of a ward-specific cost. Purpose In this paper we explore for the first time the extent and the causes of variation in ward-specific costs across hospitals, using data from China. We then use the resulting model to show how ward-specific costs for hospitals outside the data set could be estimated using information on the determinants identified in the paper. Methodology Ward-specific costs estimated using step-down costing methods from 41 hospitals in 12 provinces of China were used. We used seemingly unrelated regressions to identify the determinants of variability in the ratio of the costs of specific wards to that of the outpatient department, and explain how this can be used to generate ward-specific unit costs. Findings Ward-specific unit costs varied considerably across hospitals, ranging from 1 to 24 times the unit cost in the outpatient department — average unit costs are not a good proxy for costs at specialty wards in general. The most important sources of variability were the number of staff and the level of capacity utilization. Practice Implications More careful hospital costing studies are clearly needed. In the meantime, we have shown that in China it is possible to estimate ward-specific unit costs taking into account key determinants of variability in costs across wards. This might well be a better alternative than using simple rules of thumb or using estimates from a single study. PMID:24874566

Evaluation of the Level of Food Safety Protection Provided by the U.S. Grade "A" Pasteurized Milk Ordinance and Its Associated Cooperative Grade "A" Milk Safety Program.

PubMed

Ma, Yinqing; Klontz, Karl C; DiNovi, Michael J; Edwards, Alison J; Hennes, Robert F

2015-08-01

The present study was conducted to evaluate the level of food safety protection provided to consumers of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States by the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS) Grade "A" Milk Safety Program through its implementation and enforcement of the U.S. Grade "A" Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO). The number of reported illnesses associated with Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States was obtained from state and federal agencies and published articles. The consumption of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States was estimated from food consumption survey data for individuals. The level of food safety protection was measured quantitatively using the metric of annual illness attack rate. During a 15-year period (1999 through 2013), the estimated annual illness attack rate was 0.41 reported illnesses per 1 billion exposures (estimated using person-day intake data) or 0.52 reported illnesses per 1 billion lb (454 million kg) of Grade "A" milk and milk products consumed. Food safety protection provided to consumers of Grade "A" milk and milk products by the NCIMS through its implementation and enforcement of the PMO is important given the common consumption of Grade "A" milk and milk products in the United States.

CHARACTERIZATION OF MINE LEACHATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GROUNDWATER MONITORING STRATEGY FOR MINE SITES

EPA Science Inventory

The total number of mining sites, both active and inactive, in the United States has been estimated to be as high as 82,000. Approximately 80 percent of the current mining activity in this country is associated with the recovery of gold and copper. The quantity of mine wastes p...

Alternative sampling designs and estimators for annual surveys

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen

2000-01-01

Annual forest inventory systems in the United States have generally converged on sampling designs that: (1) measure equal proportions of the total number of plots each year; and (2) call for the plots to be systematically dispersed. However, there will inevitably be a need to deviate from the basic design to respond to special requests, natural disasters, and budgetary...

Managing Labor Market Changes: Essential Skills for Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Neill, Barbara

2014-01-01

The United States labor market has undergone a dramatic sea change with increasing numbers of permanent freelancers and temporary workers. One in three workers has a temporary freelance job. It is estimated that, by 2020, more than 40% of the American labor force-60 million people-will be self-employed. This article discusses labor force trends,…

Effects of forest cover, topography, and sampling extent on the measured density of shallow, translational landslides.

Treesearch

D.J. Miller; K.M. Burnett

2007-01-01

We use regionally available digital elevation models and land-cover data, calibrated with ground- and photo-based landslide inventories, to produce spatially distributed estimates of shallow, translational landslide density (number/unit area) for the Oregon Coast Range. We resolve relationships between landslide density and forest cover. We account for topographic...

A generalized ingrowth model for the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Linda S. Gribko; Donald E. Hilt; Mary Ann Fajvan

1995-01-01

Ingrowth, the number of trees that periodically grow into the smallest inventoried diameter class, has long been recognized as a basic element of multicohort or, uneven-aged, stand development. However, very little information is available to aid forest managers in the estimation of ingrowth. The purpose of this study was to develop a generalized ingrowth model for the...

On Roots and Squares--Estimation, Intuition and Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patkin, Dorit; Gazit, Avikam

2013-01-01

The paper presents findings of a small scale study of a few items related to problem solving with squares and roots, for different teacher groups (pre-service and in-service mathematics teachers: elementary and junior high school). The research participants were asked to explain what would be the units digit of a natural number to be squared in…

Identifying Strategies for Increasing Degree Attainment in STEM: Lessons from Minority-Serving Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perna, Laura W.; Gasman, Marybeth; Gary, Shannon; Lundy-Wagner, Valerie; Drezner, Noah D.

2010-01-01

To compete in the global marketplace, numerous reports point to the need for the United States to increase its production of highly educated workers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Although estimates suggest that the number of STEM-related jobs will grow faster than other jobs, the rate of bachelor's degree production…

Estimating a family forest landowner's likelihood of posting against trespass

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Michael A. Kilgore; Steven J. Taff; Joseph M. Schertz

2008-01-01

Hunters and other recreators face challenges to gain access to private forestland in the United States because of an increasing number of landowners posting their land. A landowners' decision to post their land is influenced by a variety of factors, including landowner characteristics, hunter behavior, and parcel attributes. We used a logit model to help...

Improved Aviation Readiness and Inventory Reductions Through Repair Cycle Time Reductions Using Modeling and Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

three NADEP’s within the continental United States and fleet repair sites in Italy and Japan. These facilities are located to support specific...number order. This same morning, P&E’s have a last opportunity to edit the induction file through the Planner and Estimator Cancellation Program ( PECAN

Social structural consequences of population growth.

PubMed

Adams, R E

1981-01-01

Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern.

Highlights of the 2007 National Youth Gang Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egley, Jr., Arlen; O'Donnell, Christina E.

2009-01-01

This report presents findings from the 2007 National Youth Gang Survey. Data on the number of gangs, gang members, and gang-related homicides in larger cities, suburban counties, smaller cities, and rural counties are provided to accurately reflect youth gang activity in the United States. Based on survey results, it is estimated that nearly 3,550…

Status and Future Manpower Needs of Physicists in Medicine in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Food and Drug Administration (DHEW), Rockville, MD. Bureau of Radiological Health.

This study describes the duties and responsibilities of the medical physicist and estimates the number of medical physicists needed in the next decade. A questionnaire, sent to members of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine, was designed to cover: characteristics of medical physicists, nature of work in medical physics, distribution…

Further Evidence That Creativity and Innovation Are Inhibited by Conservative Thinking: Analyses of the 2016 Presidential Election

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Runco, Mark A.; Acar, Selcuk; Cayirdag, Nur

2017-01-01

The investigation replicated and extended previous research showing a negative relationship between conservatism and creative accomplishment. Conservatism was estimated, as in previous research, from voting patterns. The voting data used here were from the 2016 US Presidential election. The number of patents granted per county in the United States…

40 CFR 1065.1005 - Symbols, abbreviations, acronyms, and units of measure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... of diameters meter per meter m/m 1 b atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio mole per mole mol/mol 1 C # number... error between a quantity and its reference e brake-specific emission or fuel consumption gram per... standard deviation S Sutherland constant kelvin K K SEE standard estimate of error T absolute temperature...

78 FR 72079 - Information Collection Request Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; NSPS...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-02

... Utility Steam Generating Units (40 CFR Part 60, Subpart Da) (Renewal)'' (EPA ICR No. 1053.11, OMB Control..., and any changes, or additions to the Provisions, are specified at 40 CFR part 60, subpart Da. Owners... part 60, subpart Da). Estimated number of respondents: 710 (total). Frequency of response: Initially...

Safe intravenous administration in pediatrics: A 5-year Pediatric Intensive Care Unit experience with smart pumps.

PubMed

Manrique-Rodríguez, S; Sánchez-Galindo, A C; Fernández-Llamazares, C M; Calvo-Calvo, M M; Carrillo-Álvarez, Á; Sanjurjo-Sáez, M

2016-10-01

To estimate the impact of smart pump implementation in a pediatric intensive care unit in terms of number and type of administration errors intercepted. Observational, prospective study carried out from January 2010 to March 2015 with syringe and great volumen infusion pumps available in the hospital. A tertiary level hospital pediatric intensive care unit. Infusions delivered with infusion pumps in all pediatric intensive care unit patients. Design of a drug library with safety limits for all intravenous drugs prescribed. Users' compliance with drug library as well as number and type of errors prevented were analyzed. Two hundred and eighty-three errors were intercepted during 62 months of study. A high risk drug was involved in 58% of prevented errors, such as adrenergic agonists and antagonists, sedatives, analgesics, neuromuscular blockers, opioids, potassium and insulin. Users' average compliance with the safety software was 84%. Smart pumps implementation has proven effective in intercepting high risk drugs programming errors. These results might be exportable to other critical care units, involving pediatric or adult patients. Interdisciplinary colaboration is key to succeed in this process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Cost-effective retrofit technology for reducing peak power demand in small and medium commercial buildings

DOE PAGES

Nutaro, James J.; Fugate, David L.; Kuruganti, Teja; ...

2015-05-27

We describe a cost-effective retrofit technology that uses collective control of multiple rooftop air conditioning units to reduce the peak power consumption of small and medium commercial buildings. The proposed control uses a model of the building and air conditioning units to select an operating schedule for the air conditioning units that maintains a temperature set point subject to a constraint on the number of units that may operate simultaneously. A prototype of this new control system was built and deployed in a large gymnasium to coordinate four rooftop air conditioning units. Based on data collected while operating this prototype,more » we estimate that the cost savings achieved by reducing peak power consumption is sufficient to repay the cost of the prototype within a year.« less

Suicide and Suicidal Attempts in the United States: Costs and Policy Implications.

PubMed

Shepard, Donald S; Gurewich, Deborah; Lwin, Aung K; Reed, Gerald A; Silverman, Morton M

2016-06-01

The national cost of suicides and suicide attempts in the United States in 2013 was $58.4 billion based on reported numbers alone. Lost productivity (termed indirect costs) represents most (97.1%) of this cost. Adjustment for under-reporting increased the total cost to $93.5 billion or $298 per capita, 2.1-2.8 times that of previous studies. Previous research suggests that improved continuity of care would likely reduce the number of subsequent suicidal attempts following a previous nonfatal attempt. We estimate a highly favorable benefit-cost ratio of 6 to 1 for investments in additional medical, counseling, and linkage services for such patients. © 2015 The Authors. Suicide and LifeThreatening Behavior published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Suicidology.

Modeling health impact of global health programs implemented by Population Services International

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Global health implementing organizations benefit most from health impact estimation models that isolate the individual effects of distributed products and services - a feature not typically found in intervention impact models, but which allow comparisons across interventions and intervention settings. Population Services International (PSI), a social marketing organization, has developed a set of impact models covering seven health program areas, which translate product/service distribution data into impact estimates. Each model's primary output is the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by an intervention within a specific country and population context. This paper aims to describe the structure and inputs for two types of DALYs averted models, considering the benefits and limitations of this methodology. Methods PSI employs two modeling approaches for estimating health impact: a macro approach for most interventions and a micro approach for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and behavior change communication (BCC) interventions. Within each intervention country context, the macro approach determines the coverage that one product/service unit provides a population in person-years, whereas the micro approach estimates an individual's risk of infection with and without the product/service unit. The models use these estimations to generate per unit DALYs averted coefficients for each intervention. When multiplied by program output data, these coefficients predict the total number of DALYs averted by an intervention in a country. Results Model outputs are presented by country for two examples: Water Chlorination DALYs Averted Model, a macro model, and the HIV Condom DALYs Averted Model for heterosexual transmission, a micro model. Health impact estimates measured in DALYs averted for PSI interventions on a global level are also presented. Conclusions The DALYs averted models offer implementing organizations practical measurement solutions for understanding an intervention's contribution to improving health. These models calculate health impact estimates that reflect the scale and diversity of program operations and intervention settings, and that enable comparisons across health areas and countries. Challenges remain in accounting for intervention synergies, attributing impact to a single organization, and sourcing and updating model inputs. Nevertheless, these models demonstrate how DALYs averted can be viably used by the global health community as a metric for predicting intervention impact using standard program output data. PMID:23902668

Preliminary evaluation of the sensitivity to change of DE-STA motor unit number estimation in the upper trapezius muscle in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Ives, Colleen T; Findlater, Karen; Shoesmith, Christen L; Doherty, Timothy J

2015-07-01

To compare the sensitivity to change of decomposition-enhanced spike-triggered averaging (DE-STA) motor unit number estimation (MUNE) in the upper trapezius (UT) to that of various clinical outcome measures in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Ten patients with clinically probable or definite ALS were assessed at baseline, 2, 4 and 6months with the following outcome measures: manual muscle testing in five upper extremity muscle groups, scapular elevation and elbow flexion peak force measured with hand-held dynamometry, MUNE, forced vital capacity and the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). ALSFRS-R was the only outcome measure for which there was a significant difference between baseline and 6months (p=0.034). ALSFRS-R had the largest standardized response mean (SRM), and was thus the most sensitive to change. MUNE demonstrated a decline over 6months and a moderate SRM (-0.63). This study has demonstrated a moderate degree of sensitivity to change for DE-STA MUNE as applied to the UT in subjects with ALS. In this preliminary study, DE-STA MUNE detected motor unit loss over 6months, with a moderate degree of sensitivity, in the upper trapezius of subjects with ALS. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Productivity growth in outpatient child and adolescent mental health services: the impact of case-mix adjustment.

PubMed

Halsteinli, Vidar; Kittelsen, Sverre A; Magnussen, Jon

2010-02-01

The performance of health service providers may be monitored by measuring productivity. However, the policy value of such measures may depend crucially on the accuracy of input and output measures. In particular, an important question is how to adjust adequately for case-mix in the production of health care. In this study, we assess productivity growth in Norwegian outpatient child and adolescent mental health service units (CAMHS) over a period characterized by governmental utilization of simple productivity indices, a substantial increase in capacity and a concurrent change in case-mix. We analyze the sensitivity of the productivity growth estimates using different specifications of output to adjust for case-mix differences. Case-mix adjustment is achieved by distributing patients into eight groups depending on reason for referral, age and gender, as well as correcting for the number of consultations. We utilize the nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to implicitly calculate weights that maximize each unit's efficiency. Malmquist indices of technical productivity growth are estimated and bootstrap procedures are performed to calculate confidence intervals and to test alternative specifications of outputs. The dataset consist of an unbalanced panel of 48-60 CAMHS in the period 1998-2006. The mean productivity growth estimate from a simple unadjusted patient model (one single output) is 35%; adjusting for case-mix (eight outputs) reduces the growth estimate to 15%. Adding consultations increases the estimate to 28%. The latter reflects an increase in number of consultations per patient. We find that the governmental productivity indices strongly tend to overestimate productivity growth. Case-mix adjustment is of major importance and governmental utilization of performance indicators necessitates careful considerations of output specifications. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic burden of occupational injury and illness in the United States.

PubMed

Leigh, J Paul

2011-12-01

The allocation of scarce health care resources requires a knowledge of disease costs. Whereas many studies of a variety of diseases are available, few focus on job-related injuries and illnesses. This article provides estimates of the national costs of occupational injury and illness among civilians in the United States for 2007. This study provides estimates of both the incidence of fatal and nonfatal injuries and nonfatal illnesses and the prevalence of fatal diseases as well as both medical and indirect (productivity) costs. To generate the estimates, I combined primary and secondary data sources with parameters from the literature and model assumptions. My primary sources were injury, disease, employment, and inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as costs data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. My secondary sources were the National Academy of Social Insurance, literature estimates of Attributable Fractions (AF) of diseases with occupational components, and national estimates for all health care costs. Critical model assumptions were applied to the underreporting of injuries, wage-replacement rates, and AFs. Total costs were calculated by multiplying the number of cases by the average cost per case. A sensitivity analysis tested for the effects of the most consequential assumptions. Numerous improvements over earlier studies included reliance on BLS data for government workers and ten specific cancer sites rather than only one broad cancer category. The number of fatal and nonfatal injuries in 2007 was estimated to be more than 5,600 and almost 8,559,000, respectively, at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion. The number of fatal and nonfatal illnesses was estimated at more than 53,000 and nearly 427,000, respectively, with cost estimates of $46 billion and $12 billion. For injuries and diseases combined, medical cost estimates were $67 billion (27% of the total), and indirect costs were almost $183 billion (73%). Injuries comprised 77 percent of the total, and diseases accounted for 23 percent. The total estimated costs were approximately $250 billion, compared with the inflation-adjusted cost of $217 billion for 1992. The medical and indirect costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are sizable, at least as large as the cost of cancer. Workers' compensation covers less than 25 percent of these costs, so all members of society share the burden. The contributions of job-related injuries and illnesses to the overall cost of medical care and ill health are greater than generally assumed. © 2011 Milbank Memorial Fund.

An expert system for diagnostics and estimation of steam turbine components condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murmansky, B. E.; Aronson, K. E.; Brodov, Yu. M.

2017-11-01

The report describes an expert system of probability type for diagnostics and state estimation of steam turbine technological subsystems components. The expert system is based on Bayes’ theorem and permits to troubleshoot the equipment components, using expert experience, when there is a lack of baseline information on the indicators of turbine operation. Within a unified approach the expert system solves the problems of diagnosing the flow steam path of the turbine, bearings, thermal expansion system, regulatory system, condensing unit, the systems of regenerative feed-water and hot water heating. The knowledge base of the expert system for turbine unit rotors and bearings contains a description of 34 defects and of 104 related diagnostic features that cause a change in its vibration state. The knowledge base for the condensing unit contains 12 hypotheses and 15 evidence (indications); the procedures are also designated for 20 state parameters estimation. Similar knowledge base containing the diagnostic features and faults hypotheses are formulated for other technological subsystems of turbine unit. With the necessary initial information available a number of problems can be solved within the expert system for various technological subsystems of steam turbine unit: for steam flow path it is the correlation and regression analysis of multifactor relationship between the vibration parameters variations and the regime parameters; for system of thermal expansions it is the evaluation of force acting on the longitudinal keys depending on the temperature state of the turbine cylinder; for condensing unit it is the evaluation of separate effect of the heat exchange surface contamination and of the presence of air in condenser steam space on condenser thermal efficiency performance, as well as the evaluation of term for condenser cleaning and for tube system replacement and so forth. With a lack of initial information the expert system enables to formulate a diagnosis, calculating the probability of faults hypotheses, given the degree of the expert confidence in estimation of turbine components operation parameters.

Systematic, Cross-Cortex Variation in Neuron Numbers in Rodents and Primates

PubMed Central

Charvet, Christine J.; Cahalane, Diarmuid J.; Finlay, Barbara L.

2015-01-01

Uniformity, local variability, and systematic variation in neuron numbers per unit of cortical surface area across species and cortical areas have been claimed to characterize the isocortex. Resolving these claims has been difficult, because species, techniques, and cortical areas vary across studies. We present a stereological assessment of neuron numbers in layers II–IV and V–VI per unit of cortical surface area across the isocortex in rodents (hamster, Mesocricetus auratus; agouti, Dasyprocta azarae; paca, Cuniculus paca) and primates (owl monkey, Aotus trivigratus; tamarin, Saguinus midas; capuchin, Cebus apella); these chosen to vary systematically in cortical size. The contributions of species, cortical areas, and techniques (stereology, “isotropic fractionator”) to neuron estimates were assessed. Neurons per unit of cortical surface area increase across the rostro-caudal (RC) axis in primates (varying by a factor of 1.64–2.13 across the rostral and caudal poles) but less in rodents (varying by a factor of 1.15–1.54). Layer II–IV neurons account for most of this variation. When integrated into the context of species variation, and this RC gradient in neuron numbers, conflicts between studies can be accounted for. The RC variation in isocortical neurons in adulthood mirrors the gradients in neurogenesis duration in development. PMID:23960207

Deaths in the United States among persons with Alzheimer's disease (2010-2050).

PubMed

Weuve, Jennifer; Hebert, Liesi E; Scherr, Paul A; Evans, Denis A

2014-03-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) profoundly affects the end-of-life experience. Yet, counts of deaths attributable to AD understate this burden of AD in the population. Therefore, we estimated the annual number of deaths in the United States among older adults with AD from 2010 to 2050. We calculated probabilities of AD incidence and mortality from a longitudinal population-based study of 10,802 participants. From this population, 1913 previously disease-free individuals, selected via stratified random sampling, underwent 2577 detailed clinical evaluations. Over the course of follow-up, 990 participants died. We computed age-, sex-, race-, and education-specific AD incidences and education-adjusted AD mortality proportions specific to age, sex, and race group. We then combined these probabilities with US-wide census, education, and mortality data. In 2010, approximately 600,000 deaths occurred among individuals aged 65 years or older with AD, comprising 32% of all older adult deaths. By 2050, this number is projected to be 1.6 million, 43% of all older adult deaths. Individuals with AD comprise a substantial number of older adult deaths in the United States, a number expected to rise considerably in coming decades. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What Are the Causes of Late-Life Depression?

PubMed Central

Aziz, Rehan; Steffens, David C.

2014-01-01

Overview The rapid increase in the numbers of older adults worldwide makes a focus on mental disorders and aging both timely and imperative. According to the 2010 census, in the United States, there were 40.3 million adults aged 65 years and older. This number represented an increase of 5.3 million over the 2000 census. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of elders increased at a faster rate (15.1%) than the total US population (9.7%).1 These numbers are projected to continue to diverge, and the disparity between age groups will widen further as a consequence. By 2050, an estimated 20.2% of the population will be 65 years of age and older.2 PMID:24229653

Modification and fixed-point analysis of a Kalman filter for orientation estimation based on 9D inertial measurement unit data.

PubMed

Brückner, Hans-Peter; Spindeldreier, Christian; Blume, Holger

2013-01-01

A common approach for high accuracy sensor fusion based on 9D inertial measurement unit data is Kalman filtering. State of the art floating-point filter algorithms differ in their computational complexity nevertheless, real-time operation on a low-power microcontroller at high sampling rates is not possible. This work presents algorithmic modifications to reduce the computational demands of a two-step minimum order Kalman filter. Furthermore, the required bit-width of a fixed-point filter version is explored. For evaluation real-world data captured using an Xsens MTx inertial sensor is used. Changes in computational latency and orientation estimation accuracy due to the proposed algorithmic modifications and fixed-point number representation are evaluated in detail on a variety of processing platforms enabling on-board processing on wearable sensor platforms.

Dow’s fire and explosion index: a case-study in the process unit of an oil extraction factory

PubMed Central

Nezamodini, Zeynab Sadat; Rezvani, Zahra; Kian, Kumars

2017-01-01

Introduction The incidence of fires and explosions have led to severe damage in many industries, primarily in industries’ financial losses. This study was conducted to estimate losses due to fire and explosion and the impact of control measures on the number of losses applying Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index. Methods This is a case study conducted in one of the process units of an oil extraction factory. Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index Hazard classification guide, 7th edition, issued by the American Institute of Chemical Engineers was applied. Data were obtained mainly through interviews and consultation with experts, as well as reported operating parameters and process documents. Results The Dow Index of the processing unit was estimated to be 243.68, and the most probable base damage was approximately $4.15 million in 2008. The actual damages were estimated to be $2,863,500, and the number of lost work days to be 64.56 days. The interruption losses were estimated to be $15,817,200 and the total losses to the system to be $18.67 million. These results demonstrated that losses resulting from production interruptions are greater than losses due to the destruction of equipment. A series of corrections was then proposed and risk analysis was performed again to examine the effects of reforms. The comparison shows that by applying reforms the FEI can change to 86.62 and the total loss can reduce to $9.03 million. Conclusion This study shows that Dow’s Index is a systematic tool to examine the impact of control measures. It also enhances resource management considering an optimal insurance contract. Considering the priority of reducing damage factors, several correction actions were suggested, such as modifying the drainage system, installation of hexane detectors, an automatic sprinkler system, fire detectors on the cable tray, and finally, using the water spray washing on the tanks. PMID:28465821

Dow's fire and explosion index: a case-study in the process unit of an oil extraction factory.

PubMed

Nezamodini, Zeynab Sadat; Rezvani, Zahra; Kian, Kumars

2017-02-01

The incidence of fires and explosions have led to severe damage in many industries, primarily in industries' financial losses. This study was conducted to estimate losses due to fire and explosion and the impact of control measures on the number of losses applying Dow's Fire and Explosion Index. This is a case study conducted in one of the process units of an oil extraction factory. Dow's Fire and Explosion Index Hazard classification guide, 7 th edition, issued by the American Institute of Chemical Engineers was applied. Data were obtained mainly through interviews and consultation with experts, as well as reported operating parameters and process documents. The Dow Index of the processing unit was estimated to be 243.68, and the most probable base damage was approximately $4.15 million in 2008. The actual damages were estimated to be $2,863,500, and the number of lost work days to be 64.56 days. The interruption losses were estimated to be $15,817,200 and the total losses to the system to be $18.67 million. These results demonstrated that losses resulting from production interruptions are greater than losses due to the destruction of equipment. A series of corrections was then proposed and risk analysis was performed again to examine the effects of reforms. The comparison shows that by applying reforms the FEI can change to 86.62 and the total loss can reduce to $9.03 million. This study shows that Dow's Index is a systematic tool to examine the impact of control measures. It also enhances resource management considering an optimal insurance contract. Considering the priority of reducing damage factors, several correction actions were suggested, such as modifying the drainage system, installation of hexane detectors, an automatic sprinkler system, fire detectors on the cable tray, and finally, using the water spray washing on the tanks.

Estimating the impact of adopting the revised United Kingdom acetaminophen treatment nomogram in the U.S. population.

PubMed

Levine, Michael; Stellpflug, Sam; Pizon, Anthony F; Traub, Stephen; Vohra, Rais; Wiegand, Timothy; Traub, Nicole; Tashman, David; Desai, Shoma; Chang, Jamie; Nathwani, Dhruv; Thomas, Stephen

2017-07-01

Acetaminophen toxicity is common in clinical practice. In recent years, several European countries have lowered the treatment threshold, which has resulted in increased number of patients being treated at a questionable clinical benefit. The primary objective of this study is to estimate the cost and associated burden to the United States (U.S.) healthcare system, if such a change were adopted in the U.S. This study is a retrospective review of all patients age 14 years or older who were admitted to one of eight different hospitals located throughout the U.S. with acetaminophen exposures during a five and a half year span, encompassing from 1 January 2008 to 30 June 2013. Those patients who would be treated with the revised nomogram, but not the current nomogram were included. The cost of such treatment was extrapolated to a national level. 139 subjects were identified who would be treated with the revised nomogram, but not the current nomogram. Extrapolating these numbers nationally, an additional 4507 (95%CI 3641-8751) Americans would be treated annually for acetaminophen toxicity. The cost of lowering the treatment threshold is estimated to be $45 million (95%CI 36,400,000-87,500,000) annually. Adopting the revised treatment threshold in the U.S. would result in a significant cost, yet provide an unclear clinical benefit.

Estimating the probability of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion and vice versa.

PubMed Central

Hammerslough, C R

1992-01-01

An integrated approach to estimate the total number of pregnancies that begin in a population during one calendar year and the probability of spontaneous abortion is described. This includes an indirect estimate of the number of pregnancies that result in spontaneous abortions. The method simultaneously takes into account the proportion of induced abortions that are censored by spontaneous abortions and vice versa in order to estimate the true annual number of spontaneous and induced abortions for a population. It also estimates the proportion of pregnancies that women intended to allow to continue to a live birth. The proposed indirect approach derives adjustment factors to make indirect estimates by combining vital statistics information on gestational age at induced abortion (from the 12 States that report to the National Center for Health Statistics) with a life table of spontaneous abortion probabilities. The adjustment factors are applied to data on induced abortions from the Alan Guttmacher Institute Abortion Provider Survey and data on births from U.S. vital statistics. For the United States in 1980 the probability of a spontaneous abortion is 19 percent, given the presence of induced abortion. Once the effects of spontaneous abortion are discounted, women in 1980 intended to allow 73 percent of their pregnancies to proceed to a live birth. One medical benefit to a population practicing induced abortion is that induced abortions avert some spontaneous abortions, leading to a lower mean gestational duration at the time of spontaneous abortion. PMID:1594736

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States

PubMed Central

Gebru, Timnit; Krause, Jonathan; Wang, Yilun; Chen, Duyun; Deng, Jia; Aiden, Erez Lieberman; Fei-Fei, Li

2017-01-01

The United States spends more than $250 million each year on the American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed several years. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may become an increasingly practical supplement to the ACS. Here, we present a method that estimates socioeconomic characteristics of regions spanning 200 US cities by using 50 million images of street scenes gathered with Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighborhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22 million automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the United States), were used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns at the zip code and precinct level. (The average US precinct contains ∼1,000 people.) The resulting associations are surprisingly simple and powerful. For instance, if the number of sedans encountered during a drive through a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, the city is likely to vote for a Democrat during the next presidential election (88% chance); otherwise, it is likely to vote Republican (82%). Our results suggest that automated systems for monitoring demographics may effectively complement labor-intensive approaches, with the potential to measure demographics with fine spatial resolution, in close to real time. PMID:29183967

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States.

PubMed

Gebru, Timnit; Krause, Jonathan; Wang, Yilun; Chen, Duyun; Deng, Jia; Aiden, Erez Lieberman; Fei-Fei, Li

2017-12-12

The United States spends more than $250 million each year on the American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed several years. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may become an increasingly practical supplement to the ACS. Here, we present a method that estimates socioeconomic characteristics of regions spanning 200 US cities by using 50 million images of street scenes gathered with Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighborhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22 million automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the United States), were used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns at the zip code and precinct level. (The average US precinct contains ∼1,000 people.) The resulting associations are surprisingly simple and powerful. For instance, if the number of sedans encountered during a drive through a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, the city is likely to vote for a Democrat during the next presidential election (88% chance); otherwise, it is likely to vote Republican (82%). Our results suggest that automated systems for monitoring demographics may effectively complement labor-intensive approaches, with the potential to measure demographics with fine spatial resolution, in close to real time. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Innervation zones of fasciculating motor units: observations by a linear electrode array

PubMed Central

Jahanmiri-Nezhad, Faezeh; Barkhaus, Paul E.; Rymer, William Z.; Zhou, Ping

2015-01-01

This study examines the innervation zone (IZ) in the biceps brachii muscle in healthy subjects and those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using a 20-channel linear electromyogram (EMG) electrode array. Raster plots of individual waveform potentials were studied to estimate the motor unit IZ. While this work mainly focused on fasciculation potentials (FPs), a limited number of motor unit potentials (MUPs) from voluntary activity of 12 healthy and seven ALS subjects were also examined. Abnormal propagation of MUPs and scattered IZs were observed in fasciculating units, compared with voluntarily activated MUPs in healthy and ALS subjects. These findings can be related to muscle fiber reinnervation following motor neuron degeneration in ALS and the different origin sites of FPs compared with voluntary MUPs. PMID:26029076

One-unit versus two-unit cord-blood transplantation for hematologic cancers.

PubMed

Wagner, John E; Eapen, Mary; Carter, Shelly; Wang, Yanli; Schultz, Kirk R; Wall, Donna A; Bunin, Nancy; Delaney, Colleen; Haut, Paul; Margolis, David; Peres, Edward; Verneris, Michael R; Walters, Mark; Horowitz, Mary M; Kurtzberg, Joanne

2014-10-30

Umbilical-cord blood has been used as the source of hematopoietic stem cells in an estimated 30,000 transplants. The limited number of hematopoietic cells in a single cord-blood unit prevents its use in recipients with larger body mass and results in delayed hematopoietic recovery and higher mortality. Therefore, we hypothesized that the greater numbers of hematopoietic cells in two units of cord blood would be associated with improved outcomes after transplantation. Between December 1, 2006, and February 24, 2012, a total of 224 patients 1 to 21 years of age with hematologic cancer were randomly assigned to undergo double-unit (111 patients) or single-unit (113 patients) cord-blood transplantation after a uniform myeloablative conditioning regimen and immunoprophylaxis for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The primary end point was 1-year overall survival. Treatment groups were matched for age, sex, self-reported race (white vs. nonwhite), performance status, degree of donor-recipient HLA matching, and disease type and status at transplantation. The 1-year overall survival rate was 65% (95% confidence interval [CI], 56 to 74) and 73% (95% CI, 63 to 80) among recipients of double and single cord-blood units, respectively (P=0.17). Similar outcomes in the two groups were also observed with respect to the rates of disease-free survival, neutrophil recovery, transplantation-related death, relapse, infections, immunologic reconstitution, and grade II-IV acute GVHD. However, improved platelet recovery and lower incidences of grade III and IV acute and extensive chronic GVHD were observed among recipients of a single cord-blood unit. We found that among children and adolescents with hematologic cancer, survival rates were similar after single-unit and double-unit cord-blood transplantation; however, a single-unit cord-blood transplant was associated with better platelet recovery and a lower risk of GVHD. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Cancer Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00412360.).

Imaging of American football injuries in children.

PubMed

Podberesky, Daniel J; Unsell, Bryan J; Anton, Christopher G

2009-12-01

It is estimated that 3.2 million children ages 6 to 14 years participated in organized youth football in the United States in 2007. Approximately 240,000 children play football in the nation's largest youth football organization, with tackle divisions starting at age 5 years. The number of children playing unsupervised football is much higher, and the overall number of children participating in American football is increasing. Sports are the leading cause of injury-related emergency room visits for teenagers, and football is a leading precipitating athletic activity for these visits. Football is also the most hazardous organized sports in the United States. Though most pediatric football-related injuries are minor, such as abrasions, sprains, and strains of the extremities, football accounts for more major and catastrophic injuries than any other sport. Given football's popularity with children in the United States, combined with the high rate of injury associated with participation in this activity, radiologists should be familiar with the imaging features and injury patterns seen in this patient population.

Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollis, Brian R.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Coblish, Joseph J.; Norris, Joseph D.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.

2009-01-01

An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the boundary-layer momentum Reynolds number.

[Analysis of tasks of occupational health services accomplished in Poland, 1997-2014. Do we exploit the full potential of prophylactic examinations of workers?

PubMed

Marcinkiewicz, Andrzej; Wojda, Mariola; Walusiak-Skorupa, Jolanta; Hanke, Wojciech; Rydzyński, Konrad

2017-02-28

Mandatory medical reports can be used to evaluate the scope of activity of occupational health services (OHS), including the number and kind of services. The analysis comprised data for the period 1997-2014, derived from mandatory reports MZ-35A submitted by OHS units. During the analyzed period the number of occupational medicine physicians decreased from 8507 to 6741, while the number of OHS units - responsible for prophylactic care - increased from 4967 to 6261. In the years under report 3,961 million mandatory health check-ups were performed, of which 99.3% resulted in issuing fitness for work certificates. Pre-employment examinations made 38.8%, while periodical ones - 52.8% and control ones - 6.7% of all check-ups. Moreover, 336 700 examinations of apprentices, students, vocational courses attendants and Ph.D. students were performed to evaluate any contradictions for vocational training. In 2014, there were 1871 workers provided with preventive care per 1 occupational physician. It was estimated that despite legal obligation, only 22.2% of employers had signed agreements with OHS units. The analysis of the number and kind of services provided by OHS units revealed high but not fully exploited potential for efficient prophylaxis of both directly occupational work-related and indirectly work-exacerbated diseases. Med Pr 2017;68(1):105-119. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Phylogenetic trees in bioinformatics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burr, Tom L

2008-01-01

Genetic data is often used to infer evolutionary relationships among a collection of viruses, bacteria, animal or plant species, or other operational taxonomic units (OTU). A phylogenetic tree depicts such relationships and provides a visual representation of the estimated branching order of the OTUs. Tree estimation is unique for several reasons, including: the types of data used to represent each OTU; the use ofprobabilistic nucleotide substitution models; the inference goals involving both tree topology and branch length, and the huge number of possible trees for a given sample of a very modest number of OTUs, which implies that fmding themore » best tree(s) to describe the genetic data for each OTU is computationally demanding. Bioinformatics is too large a field to review here. We focus on that aspect of bioinformatics that includes study of similarities in genetic data from multiple OTUs. Although research questions are diverse, a common underlying challenge is to estimate the evolutionary history of the OTUs. Therefore, this paper reviews the role of phylogenetic tree estimation in bioinformatics, available methods and software, and identifies areas for additional research and development.« less

Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Starr, Brett R.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay; Olds, Aaron D.

2011-01-01

The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air-data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay M.; Starr, Brett R.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Olds, Aaron D.

2011-01-01

The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

Multidimensional density shaping by sigmoids.

PubMed

Roth, Z; Baram, Y

1996-01-01

An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the output entropy of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's optimization method, applied to the estimated density, yields a recursive estimator for a random variable or a random sequence. A constrained connectivity structure yields a linear estimator, which is particularly suitable for "real time" prediction. A Gaussian nonlinearity yields a closed-form solution for the network's parameters, which may also be used for initializing the optimization algorithm when other nonlinearities are employed. A triangular connectivity between the neurons and the input, which is naturally suggested by the statistical setting, reduces the number of parameters. Applications to classification and forecasting problems are demonstrated.

Increases in the use of prescription opioid analgesics and the lack of improvement in disability metrics among users.

PubMed

Sites, Brian D; Beach, Michael L; Davis, Matthew A

2014-01-01

In the United States, use of oral opioid analgesics has been associated with increasing rates of addiction, abuse, and diversion. However, little is known about the recent national use of non-illicit prescription opioid analgesics (those prescribed in a physician-patient relationship), the primary source of these drugs for the general US population. Our primary objective was to examine trends in the use of prescription opioid analgesics in the United States and to identify defining characteristics of patient users of prescribed opioids from 2000 to 2010. We used the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to examine trends in prescription oral opioid analgesic use from 2000 to 2010. We used survey design methods to make national estimates of adults (18 years and older) who reported receiving an opioid analgesic prescription (referred to as opioid users) and used logistic regression to examine predictors of opioid analgesic use. Our primary outcome measures were national estimates of total users of prescription opioid analgesics and total number of prescriptions. Our secondary outcome was that of observing changes in the disability and health of the users. The estimated total number of opioid analgesic prescriptions in the United States increased by 104%, from 43.8 million in 2000 to 89.2 million in 2010. In 2000, an estimated 7.4% (95% confidence interval, 6.9-7.9) of adult Americans were prescription opioid users compared with 11.8% (95% confidence interval, 11.2-12.4) in 2010. On the basis of estimates adjusted for changes in the general population, each year was associated with a 6% increase in the likelihood of receiving an opioid prescription from 2000 to 2010. Despite the apparent increase in use, there were no demonstrable improvements in the age- or sex-adjusted disability and health status measures of opioid users. The use of prescription opioid analgesics among adult Americans has increased in recent years, and this increase does not seem to be associated with improvements in disability and health status among users. On a public health level, these data suggest that there may be an opportunity to reduce the prescribing of opioid analgesics without worsening of population health metrics.

A comparison of United States and United Kingdom EQ-5D health states valuations using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

PubMed

Kharroubi, Samer A; O'Hagan, Anthony; Brazier, John E

2010-07-10

Cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative medical treatments relies on having a measure of effectiveness, and many regard the quality adjusted life year (QALY) to be the current 'gold standard.' In order to compute QALYs, we require a suitable system for describing a person's health state, and a utility measure to value the quality of life associated with each possible state. There are a number of different health state descriptive systems, and we focus here on one known as the EQ-5D. Data for estimating utilities for different health states have a number of features that mean care is necessary in statistical modelling.There is interest in the extent to which valuations of health may differ between different countries and cultures, but few studies have compared preference values of health states obtained from different countries. This article applies a nonparametric model to estimate and compare EQ-5D health state valuation data obtained from two countries using Bayesian methods. The data set is the US and UK EQ-5D valuation studies where a sample of 42 states defined by the EQ-5D was valued by representative samples of the general population from each country using the time trade-off technique. We estimate a utility function across both countries which explicitly accounts for the differences between them, and is estimated using the data from both countries. The article discusses the implications of these results for future applications of the EQ-5D and for further work in this field. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Examination of the Potential of Structure-from-Motion (SfM) Photogrammetry and Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) for Rapid Nondestructive Field Measurement of Grass Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, S. D.; Roy, D. P.; Sathyachandran, S. K.

2016-12-01

Quantifying the above ground biomass of grasslands is needed for a number of applications including monitoring grass productivity, wildlife habitat, carbon storage, and fuel bed characteristics. Destructive biomass measurements, although highly accurate, are time consuming and are not easily undertaken on a repeat basis or over large areas. A number of non-destructive techniques have been developed that relate vegetation structural properties to above ground biomass. Conventionally, the disc pasture meter is used for rapid grass biomass estimation and uses the settling height of a disk placed on the grass and allometry. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry and Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) are two technologies that have the potential to yield highly precise three-dimensional (3D) structural measurements of vegetation quite rapidly. Recent advances in computing and data acquisition technologies have led to the successful application of TLS and SfM in woody biomass estimation, but application in grassland systems remains largely untested. The Canopy Biomass Lidar (CBL) is one such advance and is a highly portable and relatively inexpensive TLS unit allowing for rapid and widespread data collection. We investigated the efficacy of a CBL unit as well as SfM in allometric estimation of grassland biomass from volumetric measurements derived from these two technologies, both separately and through the merging of the two independently generated 3D point clouds. The results are compared to biomass estimation from a pasture disc meter. Best use practices for grassland applications of these technologies are also presented.

A Novel Framework Based on FastICA for High Density Surface EMG Decomposition

PubMed Central

Chen, Maoqi; Zhou, Ping

2015-01-01

This study presents a progressive FastICA peel-off (PFP) framework for high density surface electromyogram (EMG) decomposition. The novel framework is based on a shift-invariant model for describing surface EMG. The decomposition process can be viewed as progressively expanding the set of motor unit spike trains, which is primarily based on FastICA. To overcome the local convergence of FastICA, a “peel off” strategy (i.e. removal of the estimated motor unit action potential (MUAP) trains from the previous step) is used to mitigate the effects of the already identified motor units, so more motor units can be extracted. Moreover, a constrained FastICA is applied to assess the extracted spike trains and correct possible erroneous or missed spikes. These procedures work together to improve the decomposition performance. The proposed framework was validated using simulated surface EMG signals with different motor unit numbers (30, 70, 91) and signal to noise ratios (SNRs) (20, 10, 0 dB). The results demonstrated relatively large numbers of extracted motor units and high accuracies (high F1-scores). The framework was also tested with 111 trials of 64-channel electrode array experimental surface EMG signals during the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) muscle contraction at different intensities. On average 14.1 ± 5.0 motor units were identified from each trial of experimental surface EMG signals. PMID:25775496

PubMed Central

TATARELLI, P.; LORENZI, I.; CAVIGLIA, I.; SACCO, R.A.; LA MASA, D.

2016-01-01

Summary Introduction. Hand decontamination with alcohol-based antiseptic agents is considered the best practise to reduce healthcare associated infections. We present a new method to monitor hand hygiene, introduced in a tertiary care pediatric hospital in Northern Italy, which estimates the mean number of daily hand decontamination procedures performed per patient. Methods. The total amount of isopropyl alcohol and chlorhexidine solution supplied in a trimester to each hospital ward was put in relation with the number of hospitalization days, and expressed as litres/1000 hospitalization-days (World Health Organization standard method). Moreover, the ratio between the total volume of hand hygiene products supplied and the effective amount of hand disinfection product needed for a correct procedure was calculated. Then, this number was divided by 90 (days in a quarter) and then by the mean number of bed active in each day in a Unit, resulting in the mean estimated number of hand hygiene procedures per patient per day (new method). Results. The two methods had similar performance for estimating the adherence to correct hand disinfection procedures. The new method identified wards and/or periods with high or low adherence to the procedure and indicated where to perform interventions and their effectiveness. The new method could result easy-to understand also for non-infection control experts. Conclusions. This method can help non-infection control experts to understand adherence to correct hand-hygiene procedures and improve quality standards. PMID:28167854

Book Trade Research and Statistics. Prices of U.S. and Foreign Published Materials; Book Title Output and Average Prices: 2001 Final and 2002 Preliminary Figures; Book Sales Statistics, 2002: AAP Preliminary Estimates; U.S. Book Exports and Imports:2002; Number of Book Outlets in the United States and Canada; Review Media Statistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Sharon G.; Grabois, Andrew; Greco, Albert N.

2003-01-01

Includes six reports related to book trade statistics, including prices of U.S. and foreign materials; book title output and average prices; book sales statistics; book exports and imports; book outlets in the U.S. and Canada; and numbers of books and other media reviewed by major reviewing publications. (LRW)

Prospective 15-year study of neuromuscular function in a cohort of patients with prior poliomyelitis.

PubMed

Daube, Jasper R; Sorenson, Eric J; Windebank, Anthony J

2009-01-01

Poliomyelitis is a monophasic illness affecting lower motor neurons and individuals may describe new problems years after the initial weakness. We have studied 38 people with the post-polio syndrome over a 15-year period assessing a number of neuromuscular measures, including motor unit number estimation (MUNE). Twenty-five individuals reported progressive weakness but there was no objective change in MUNE and other measures. There was an association with reported weakness and initial deficits. There was a slow decline in MUNE values over time in both groups.

A Parent's Guide to Choosing the Right Online Program. Promising Practices in Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, John; Gemin, Butch; Coffey, Marla

2010-01-01

Online learning continues to grow rapidly across the United States and the world, opening new learning opportunities for students and families. Informed estimates put the number of K-12 students in online courses at over 1 million, as parents and students are choosing online courses and schools for a variety of reasons that grow out of their…

Student Learning and Student Services: Policy Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SchWeber, Claudine

2008-01-01

An increasing number of students in the United States are involved in online education, according to research by the Sloan Foundation. By fall 2004, approximately 2.6 million students were estimated to be enrolled in at least one online course, an average growth rate of 24.8% from 2003-04; this figure represents a 5% increase over the 2002-03…

Threatened and endangered species geography: characteristics of hot spots in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Michael S. Knowles; Iris A. Kendall

1998-01-01

An estimated global extinction rate that appears to be unprecedented in geological time (May 1990) has heightened concern for the increasing number of rare species. Moreover, this elevated extinction rate is being attributed to the activities of humans rather than to some calamitous natural disaster (Pimm et al. 1995). Conservation efforts to slow biodiversity loss...

Agricultural Chemical and Fertilizer Storage Rules: Costs and Benefits for Insuring Cleaner Water for Indiana.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welch, Mary A., Ed.

1991-01-01

The analysis of public goods is presented with a discussion of the rules for fertilizer and pesticide storage units in Indiana. A basic rule summary is presented with descriptions of the types of dikes that might be considered for containment. Estimated costs are projected along with the number of contained liquid fertilizer spills by size in…

Using nonlinear quantile regression to estimate the self-thinning boundary curve

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Thomas J. Dean

2015-01-01

The relationship between tree size (quadratic mean diameter) and tree density (number of trees per unit area) has been a topic of research and discussion for many decades. Starting with Reineke in 1933, the maximum size-density relationship, on a log-log scale, has been assumed to be linear. Several techniques, including linear quantile regression, have been employed...

DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder Symptomology in Fictional Picture Books

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelley, Jane E.; Cardon, Teresa A.; Algeo-Nichols, Dana

2015-01-01

In the last decade, schools have seen an increasing number of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and the current estimated average of children in the United States who are diagnosed with an ASD is one out of 68 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014). One way for educators and elementary students to learn about ASD is through…

Air quality effects of urban trees and parks

Treesearch

David Nowak; Gordon Heisler

2010-01-01

Parks are significant parts of the urban landscape and comprise about 6% of city and town areas in the conterminous United States. These urban parks are estimated to contain about 370 million trees with a structural value of approximately $300 billion. The number of park trees varies by region of the country, but they can produce significant air quality effects in and...

Skin Conditions of Youths 12-17, United States. Vital and Health Statistics; Series 11, Number 157.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Jean; Ludford, Jacqueline

This report of the National Center for Health Statistics presents national estimates of the prevalence of facial acne and other skin lesions among noninstitutionalized youths aged 12-17 years by age, race, sex, geographic region, population size of place of residence, family income, education of parent, overall health, indications of stress,…

Burden of Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Its Economic Implications in Singapore in the Year 2030.

PubMed

Saxena, Nakul; George, Pradeep Paul; Hoon, Heng Bee; Han, Lim Tock; Onn, Yong Shao

2016-08-01

To estimate the prevalence of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Singapore in the year 2030. This projection will help in planning appropriate care provision and build health services capacity to cater to the increasing healthcare demand in 2030. The number of AMD patients aged 40-79 years from all Singaporeans was estimated using prevalence rates from a local study and using the United Nations population projections for Singapore to 2030. Age-specific mortality was accounted for. Additionally, two main scenarios were presented: (1) Projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were not taking preventive antioxidant vitamins; (2) projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were taking preventive antioxidant vitamins. Based on these scenarios, the economic burden was calculated. The number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of improvement in visual acuity (VA) due to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment was also calculated. An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is Singapore $203.1 million and $162.9 million, respectively. The QALYs gained as a result of improved VA from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,114.4 to 14,058.8 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort. The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.

Long-term care and dementia services: an impending crisis.

PubMed

Macdonald, Alastair; Cooper, Brian

2007-01-01

since the transfer of long-stay care to the independent sector, provision of places in care homes in the United Kingdom has varied in response to market trends, and has shown a consistent fall in the past 10 years. People with dementia constitute the largest diagnostic group affected by these changes, and are also likely to be the group that will determine future need. We therefore estimated the number and proportion of older residents in care homes who suffer from dementia relative to all those with dementia in the United Kingdom and projected future levels of demand on the basis of this data. the number of dementia cases in long-stay care was estimated from a random sample survey in south-east England and compared with data on age-specific prevalence. Projections of future demand were based on UK population projections for the next 40 years. over half of all people with dementia in the United Kingdom are in care homes. The number of available long-stay places in care homes has fallen by one-sixth over the past decade. Projection of future demand suggests that well over double the present total places in care homes would be required by 2043 to maintain the present ratio of institutional to community services for dementia. this finding suggests an impending crisis of availability. A more realistic scenario calls for investment in affordable domiciliary care of good quality, but it will also depend on the acceptance of the fact that the main function of long-stay care for old people is now to provide for advanced cases of dementia, with consequent requirement for improvement in staff ratios and training.

The prevalence of lead-based paint hazards in U.S. housing.

PubMed Central

Jacobs, David E; Clickner, Robert P; Zhou, Joey Y; Viet, Susan M; Marker, David A; Rogers, John W; Zeldin, Darryl C; Broene, Pamela; Friedman, Warren

2002-01-01

In this study we estimated the number of housing units in the United States with lead-based paint and lead-based paint hazards. We included measurements of lead in intact and deteriorated paint, interior dust, and bare soil. A nationally representative, random sample of 831 housing units was evaluated in a survey between 1998 and 2000; the units and their occupants did not differ significantly from nationwide characteristics. Results indicate that 38 million housing units had lead-based paint, down from the 1990 estimate of 64 million. Twenty-four million had significant lead-based paint hazards. Of those with hazards, 1.2 million units housed low-income families (< 30,000 US dollars/year) with children under 6 years of age. Although 17% of government-supported, low-income housing had hazards, 35% of all low-income housing had hazards. For households with incomes greater than or equal to 30,000 US dollars/year, 19% had hazards. Fourteen percent of all houses had significantly deteriorated lead-based paint, and 16% and 7%, respectively, had dust lead and soil lead levels above current standards of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The prevalence of lead-based paint and hazards increases with age of housing, but most painted surfaces, even in older housing, do not have lead-based paint. Between 2% and 25% of painted building components were coated with lead-based paint. Housing in the Northeast and Midwest had about twice the prevalence of hazards compared with housing in the South and West. The greatest risk occurs in older units with lead-based paint hazards that either will be or are currently occupied by families with children under 6 years of age and are low-income and/or are undergoing renovation or maintenance that disturbs lead-based paint. This study also confirms projections made in 2000 by the President's Task Force on Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks to Children of the number of houses with lead-based paint hazards. Public- and private-sector resources should be directed to units posing the greatest risk if future lead poisoning is to be prevented. PMID:12361941

Bayesian hierarchical model of ceftriaxone resistance proportions among Salmonella serotype Heidelberg infections.

PubMed

Gu, Weidong; Medalla, Felicita; Hoekstra, Robert M

2018-02-01

The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks resistance among Salmonella infections. The annual number of Salmonella isolates of a particular serotype from states may be small, making direct estimation of resistance proportions unreliable. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve estimation by borrowing strength from relevant sampling units. We illustrate the models with different specifications of spatio-temporal interaction using 2004-2013 NARMS data for ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella serotype Heidelberg. Our results show that Bayesian estimates of resistance proportions were smoother than observed values, and the difference between predicted and observed proportions was inversely related to the number of submitted isolates. The model with interaction allowed for tracking of annual changes in resistance proportions at the state level. We demonstrated that Bayesian hierarchical models provide a useful tool to examine spatio-temporal patterns of small sample size such as those found in NARMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The worldwide costs of dementia 2015 and comparisons with 2010.

PubMed

Wimo, Anders; Guerchet, Maëlenn; Ali, Gemma-Claire; Wu, Yu-Tzu; Prina, A Matthew; Winblad, Bengt; Jönsson, Linus; Liu, Zhaorui; Prince, Martin

2017-01-01

In 2010, Alzheimer's Disease International presented estimates of the global cost of illness (COI) of dementia. Since then, new studies have been conducted, and the number of people with dementia has increased. Here, we present an update of the global cost estimates. This is a societal, prevalence-based global COI study. The worldwide costs of dementia were estimated at United States (US) $818 billion in 2015, an increase of 35% since 2010; 86% of the costs occur in high-income countries. Costs of informal care and the direct costs of social care still contribute similar proportions of total costs, whereas the costs in the medical sector are much lower. The threshold of US $1 trillion will be crossed by 2018. Worldwide costs of dementia are enormous and still inequitably distributed. The increase in costs arises from increases in numbers of people with dementia and in increases in per person costs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E

2017-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011-2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E.

2018-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011–2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs. PMID:29376140

Estimation of soil organic partition coefficients: from retention factors measured by soil column chromatography with water as eluent.

PubMed

Xu, Feng; Liang, Xinmiao; Lin, Bingcheng; Schramm, Karl-Werner; Kettrup, Antonius

2002-08-30

The retention factors (k) of 104 hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) were measured in soil column chromatography (SCC) over columns filled with three naturally occurring reference soils and eluted with Milli-Q water. A novel method for the estimation of soil organic partition coefficient (Koc) was developed based on correlations with k in soil/water systems. Strong log Koc versus log k correlations (r>0.96) were found. The estimated Koc values were in accordance with the literature values with a maximum deviation of less than 0.4 log units. All estimated Koc values from three soils were consistent with each other. The SCC approach is promising for fast screening of a large number of chemicals in their environmental applications.

Documenting Pornography Use in America: A Comparative Analysis of Methodological Approaches.

PubMed

Regnerus, Mark; Gordon, David; Price, Joseph

2016-09-01

Estimates of pornography use in the United States range widely. We explore the reasons for the variation in such estimates among U.S. adults using data from four different recent nationally representative samples-each of which asked a different type of question about pornography use. We attribute the notable variation in estimates to differences in question wording and answer options, and assert that a survey question asking respondents about their most recent use of pornography minimizes recall bias and is better poised to assess the overall prevalence of pornography in a population than is the more common approach of asking respondents about their historical general-use pattern. When we privileged the most-recent-use approach, survey data from 2014 reveal that 46% of men and 16% of women between the ages of 18 and 39 intentionally viewed pornography in a given week. These numbers are notably higher than most previous population estimates employing different types of questions. The results have ramifications for methods of surveying sensitive self-reported behaviors and for contextualizing scholars' claims as well as popular conversations about the reach and implications of pornography use in the United States.

Improving the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates through spatial interpolation.

PubMed

Bryssinckx, Ward; Ducheyne, Els; Muhwezi, Bernard; Godfrey, Sunday; Mintiens, Koen; Leirs, Herwig; Hendrickx, Guy

2012-11-01

Animal distribution maps serve many purposes such as estimating transmission risk of zoonotic pathogens to both animals and humans. The reliability and usability of such maps is highly dependent on the quality of the input data. However, decisions on how to perform livestock surveys are often based on previous work without considering possible consequences. A better understanding of the impact of using different sample designs and processing steps on the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates was acquired through iterative experiments using detailed survey. The importance of sample size, sample design and aggregation is demonstrated and spatial interpolation is presented as a potential way to improve cattle number estimates. As expected, results show that an increasing sample size increased the precision of cattle number estimates but these improvements were mainly seen when the initial sample size was relatively low (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.04% per sampled parish for sample sizes below 500 parishes). For higher sample sizes, the added value of further increasing the number of samples declined rapidly (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.01% per sampled parish for sample sizes above 500 parishes. When a two-stage stratified sample design was applied to yield more evenly distributed samples, accuracy levels were higher for low sample densities and stabilised at lower sample sizes compared to one-stage stratified sampling. Aggregating the resulting cattle number estimates yielded significantly more accurate results because of averaging under- and over-estimates (e.g. when aggregating cattle number estimates from subcounty to district level, P <0.009 based on a sample of 2,077 parishes using one-stage stratified samples). During aggregation, area-weighted mean values were assigned to higher administrative unit levels. However, when this step is preceded by a spatial interpolation to fill in missing values in non-sampled areas, accuracy is improved remarkably. This counts especially for low sample sizes and spatially even distributed samples (e.g. P <0.001 for a sample of 170 parishes using one-stage stratified sampling and aggregation on district level). Whether the same observations apply on a lower spatial scale should be further investigated.

Increasing Utilization Of Pediatric Epilepsy Surgery In The United States Between 1997 and 2009

PubMed Central

Pestana Knight, Elia M.; Schiltz, Nicholas K.; Bakaki, Paul M.; Koroukian, Siran M.; Lhatoo, Samden D.; Kaiboriboon, Kitti

2014-01-01

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE To examine national trends of pediatric epilepsy surgery usage in the United States between 1997 and 2009. METHODS We performed a serial cross-sectional study of pediatric epilepsy surgery using triennial data from the Kids’ Inpatient Database from 1997 to 2009. The rates of epilepsy surgery for lobectomies, partial lobectomies, and hemispherectomies in each study year were calculated based on the number of prevalent epilepsy cases in the corresponding year. The age-race-sex adjusted rates of surgeries were also estimated. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test for changes in the rates of surgeries over time. Multivariable regression analysis was also performed to estimate the effect of time, age, race, and sex on the annual incidence of epilepsy surgery. RESULTS The rates of pediatric epilepsy surgery significantly increased from 0.85 epilepsy surgeries per 1,000 children with epilepsy in 1997 to 1.44 epilepsy surgeries per 1,000 children with epilepsy in 2009. An increment in the rates of epilepsy surgeries was noted across all age groups, in boys and girls, all races, and all payer types. The rate of increase was lowest in blacks and in children with public insurance. The overall number of surgical cases for each study year was lower than 35% of children who were expected to have surgery, based on the estimates from the Connecticut Study of Epilepsy. SIGNIFICANCE In contrast to adults, pediatric epilepsy surgery numbers have increased significantly in the past decade. However, epilepsy surgery remains an underutilized treatment for children with epilepsy. In addition, black children and those with public insurance continue to face disparities in the receipt of epilepsy surgery. PMID:25630252

Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

PubMed

Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-04-16

Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total knee arthroplasty were lower. Economic downturns in the 2000s did not substantially influence the national growth trends for hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States. These latest updated projections provide a basis for surgeons, hospitals, payers, and policy makers to plan for the future demand for total joint replacement surgery.

Is orthopedics more competitive today than when my attending matched? An analysis of National Resident Matching Program data for orthopedic PGY1 applicants from 1984 to 2011.

PubMed

Karnes, Jonathan M; Mayerson, Joel L; Scharschmidt, Thomas J

2014-01-01

This study evaluated supply and demand trends for orthopedic postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) positions from 1984 to 2011 for the purpose of estimating national intercandidate competition over time. National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) data for orthopedic surgery from 1984 to 2011 were collected. Proxy variables including (total number of orthopedic applicants/number of orthopedic PGY1 positions), (number of US senior applicants to orthopedics/number of orthopedic PGY1 positions), (number of US seniors matching into orthopedics/number of US senior orthopedic applicants), (total number of matched orthopedic applicants/total number of orthopedic applicants), and (total number of US applicants who fail to match into orthopedics/total number of US senior applicants into orthopedics) as well as average United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 scores were used to gauge the level of competition between candidates and were compared over time. Academic medical center in the Midwestern United States. Medical professors and medical students. The NRMP data suggested that the number of positions per applicant decreased or remained stable since 1984 and that the percentage of applicants who did not match was no higher now than in the past. This finding was primarily because of the relative decrease in the ratio of applicants to available PGY1 positions, which stems from the number of positions increasing more rapidly than the number of applicants. The NRMP data from 1984 to 2011 supported our hypothesis that intercandidate competition intensity for orthopedic PGY1 positions has not increased over time. The misconception that orthopedics is becoming more competitive likely arises from the increased number of applications submitted per candidate and the resulting relative importance placed on objective criteria such as United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 scores when programs select interview cohorts. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Modeling in Real Time During the Ebola Response.

PubMed

Meltzer, Martin I; Santibanez, Scott; Fischer, Leah S; Merlin, Toby L; Adhikari, Bishwa B; Atkins, Charisma Y; Campbell, Caresse; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Gambhir, Manoj; Gift, Thomas; Greening, Bradford; Gu, Weidong; Jacobson, Evin U; Kahn, Emily B; Carias, Cristina; Nerlander, Lina; Rainisch, Gabriel; Shankar, Manjunath; Wong, Karen; Washington, Michael L

2016-07-08

To aid decision-making during CDC's response to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic in West Africa, CDC activated a Modeling Task Force to generate estimates on various topics related to the response in West Africa and the risk for importation of cases into the United States. Analysis of eight Ebola response modeling projects conducted during August 2014-July 2015 provided insight into the types of questions addressed by modeling, the impact of the estimates generated, and the difficulties encountered during the modeling. This time frame was selected to cover the three phases of the West African epidemic curve. Questions posed to the Modeling Task Force changed as the epidemic progressed. Initially, the task force was asked to estimate the number of cases that might occur if no interventions were implemented compared with cases that might occur if interventions were implemented; however, at the peak of the epidemic, the focus shifted to estimating resource needs for Ebola treatment units. Then, as the epidemic decelerated, requests for modeling changed to generating estimates of the potential number of sexually transmitted Ebola cases. Modeling to provide information for decision-making during the CDC Ebola response involved limited data, a short turnaround time, and difficulty communicating the modeling process, including assumptions and interpretation of results. Despite these challenges, modeling yielded estimates and projections that public health officials used to make key decisions regarding response strategy and resources required. The impact of modeling during the Ebola response demonstrates the usefulness of modeling in future responses, particularly in the early stages and when data are scarce. Future modeling can be enhanced by planning ahead for data needs and data sharing, and by open communication among modelers, scientists, and others to ensure that modeling and its limitations are more clearly understood. The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Muth, Jr.; K. M. Bryden; R. G. Nelson

This study provides a spatially comprehensive assessment of sustainable agricultural residue removal potential across the United States. Earlier assessments determining the quantity of agricultural residue that could be sustainably removed for bioenergy production at the regional and national scale faced a number of computational limitations. These limitations included the number of environmental factors, the number of land management scenarios, and the spatial fidelity and spatial extent of the assessment. This study utilizes integrated multi-factor environmental process modeling and high fidelity land use datasets to perform a spatially comprehensive assessment of sustainably removable agricultural residues across the conterminous United States. Soilmore » type represents the base spatial unit for this study and is modeled using a national soil survey database at the 10 – 100 m scale. Current crop rotation practices are identified by processing land cover data available from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer database. Land management and residue removal scenarios are identified for each unique crop rotation and crop management zone. Estimates of county averages and state totals of sustainably available agricultural residues are provided. The results of the assessment show that in 2011 over 150 million metric tons of agricultural residues could have been sustainably removed across the United States. Projecting crop yields and land management practices to 2030, the assessment determines that over 207 million metric tons of agricultural residues will be able to be sustainably removed for bioenergy production at that time.« less

Fatal Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the United States, 1999-2007.

PubMed

Dahlgren, F Scott; Holman, Robert C; Paddock, Christopher D; Callinan, Laura S; McQuiston, Jennifer H

2012-04-01

Death from Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is preventable with prompt, appropriate treatment. Data from two independent sources were analyzed to estimate the burden of fatal RMSF and identify risk factors for fatal RMSF in the United States during 1999-2007. Despite increased reporting of RMSF cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, no significant changes in the estimated number of annual fatal RMSF cases were found. American Indians were at higher risk of fatal RMSF relative to whites (relative risk [RR] = 3.9), and children less than 10 years of age (RR=5.1) [corrected] and adults ≥ 70 years of age (RR = 3.0) were also at increased risk relative to other ages. Persons with cases of RMSF with an immunosuppressive condition were at increased risk of death (RR = 4.4). Delaying treatment of RMSF was also associated with increased deaths. These results may indicate a gap between recommendations and practice.

Informal Caregiving for Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Romito, Francesca; Goldzweig, Gil; Cormio, Claudia; Hagedoorn, Mariët; Andersen, Barbara L.

2013-01-01

According to the recent worldwide estimation by the GLOBOCAN project, in total, 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occurred in 2008. The worldwide number of cancer survivors within 5 years of diagnosis has been estimated at be almost 28.8 million. Informal caregivers, such as family members and close friends, provide essential support to cancer patients. The authors of this report provide an overview of issues in the study of informal caregivers for cancer patients and long-term survivors in the United States and Europe, characterizing the caregivers commonly studied; the resources currently available to them; and their unmet needs, their psychosocial outcomes, and the psychosocial interventions tailored to their special circumstances. A broad overview of the state of research and knowledge, both in Europe and the United States, and observations on the directions for future research are provided. PMID:23695928

Robust and sparse correlation matrix estimation for the analysis of high-dimensional genomics data.

PubMed

Serra, Angela; Coretto, Pietro; Fratello, Michele; Tagliaferri, Roberto; Stegle, Oliver

2018-02-15

Microarray technology can be used to study the expression of thousands of genes across a number of different experimental conditions, usually hundreds. The underlying principle is that genes sharing similar expression patterns, across different samples, can be part of the same co-expression system, or they may share the same biological functions. Groups of genes are usually identified based on cluster analysis. Clustering methods rely on the similarity matrix between genes. A common choice to measure similarity is to compute the sample correlation matrix. Dimensionality reduction is another popular data analysis task which is also based on covariance/correlation matrix estimates. Unfortunately, covariance/correlation matrix estimation suffers from the intrinsic noise present in high-dimensional data. Sources of noise are: sampling variations, presents of outlying sample units, and the fact that in most cases the number of units is much larger than the number of genes. In this paper, we propose a robust correlation matrix estimator that is regularized based on adaptive thresholding. The resulting method jointly tames the effects of the high-dimensionality, and data contamination. Computations are easy to implement and do not require hand tunings. Both simulated and real data are analyzed. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the proposed method is capable of remarkable performances. Our correlation metric is more robust to outliers compared with the existing alternatives in two gene expression datasets. It is also shown how the regularization allows to automatically detect and filter spurious correlations. The same regularization is also extended to other less robust correlation measures. Finally, we apply the ARACNE algorithm on the SyNTreN gene expression data. Sensitivity and specificity of the reconstructed network is compared with the gold standard. We show that ARACNE performs better when it takes the proposed correlation matrix estimator as input. The R software is available at https://github.com/angy89/RobustSparseCorrelation. aserra@unisa.it or robtag@unisa.it. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

DIVWAG Model Documentation. Volume II. Programmer/Analyst Manual. Part 5.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-01

Words Number Mission type: I=DAFS; 2= CAS 1 8 Estimated X coordinate of target 1 9 Estimated Y coordinate of target 1 10 Reject code: 0-mission unit... CAS 1 8 Abort indicator: O-no abort; 1-abort 1 9 X coordinate of target 1 10 " :oordinate of target 1 11 Aircraft munitions item code 6 12-17 Aircraft...L300 CALL TRNSMT U. TO TRANSMIT FIRST BLOCK OF DATA L100 YES REQUEST FOR INPU? LIOI CA " TRAN21I TO TRANSMIT LAST BLOCK OF DATA Figure VII-3-B- 10

Carbon Monoxide Toxicity

PubMed Central

Aniol, Michael J.

1992-01-01

Of all fatal poisonings in the United States, an estimated half are due to carbon monoxide. The number of non-lethal poisonings due to carbon monoxide is difficult to estimate because signs and symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning cover a wide spectrum and mimic other disorders. Misdiagnosis is serious, as the patient often returns to the contaminated environment. Those not receiving proper treatment are at significant risk, as high as 10% to 12%, of developing late neurological sequelae. The diagnosis of carbon monoxide poisoning depends upon precise history taking, careful physical examination, and a high index of suspicion. ImagesFigure 2 PMID:21221282

Abortion surveillance--United States, 2002.

PubMed

Strauss, Lilo T; Herndon, Joy; Chang, Jeani; Parker, Wilda Y; Bowens, Sonya V; Berg, Cynthia J

2005-11-25

CDC began abortion surveillance in 1969 to document the number and characteristics of women obtaining legal induced abortions. This report summarizes and describes data voluntarily reported to CDC regarding legal induced abortions obtained in the United States in 2002. For each year since 1969, CDC has compiled abortion data by state or area of occurrence. During 1973-1997, data were received from or estimated for 52 reporting areas in the United States: 50 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. In 1998 and 1999, CDC compiled abortion data from 48 reporting areas. Alaska, California, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma did not report, and data for these states were not estimated. For 2000-2002, Oklahoma again reported these data, increasing the number of reporting areas to 49. A total of 854,122 legal induced abortions were reported to CDC for 2002 from 49 reporting areas, representing a 0.1% increase from the 853,485 legal induced abortions reported by the same 49 reporting areas for 2001. The abortion ratio, defined as the number of abortions per 1,000 live births, was 246 in 2002, the same as reported for 2001. The abortion rate was 16 per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years for 2002, the same as for 2001. For the same 48 reporting areas, the abortion rate remained relatively constant during 1997-2002. The highest percentages of reported abortions were for women who were unmarried (82%), white (55%), and aged <25 years (51%). Of all abortions for which gestational age was reported, 60% were performed at < or =8 weeks' gestation and 88% at <13 weeks. From 1992 (when detailed data regarding early abortions were first collected) through 2002, steady increases have occurred in the percentage of abortions performed at < or =6 weeks' gestation. A limited number of abortions was obtained at >15 weeks' gestation, including 4.1% at 16-20 weeks and 1.4% at > or =21 weeks. A total of 35 reporting areas submitted data stating that they performed and enumerated medical (nonsurgical) procedures, accounting for 5.2% of all known reported procedures from the 45 areas with adequate reporting on type of procedure. During 1990-1997, the number of legal induced abortions gradually declined. When the same 48 reporting areas were compared, the number of abortions decreased during 1996-2001, then slightly increased in 2002. In 2000 and 2001, even with one additional reporting state, the number of abortions declined slightly, with a minimal increase in 2002. Abortion surveillance in the United States continues to provide the data necessary for examining trends in numbers and characteristics of women who obtain legal induced abortions and to increase understanding of this pregnancy outcome. Policymakers and program planners use these data to improve the health and well-being of women and infants.

Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery

PubMed Central

Birrell, F.; Johnell, O.; Silman, A.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades
METHODS—Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.
RESULTS—Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further—up to double the current number.
CONCLUSION—A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.

 PMID:10460191

Prevalence and concentration of Salmonella on raw shelled peanuts in the United States.

PubMed

Calhoun, Stephen; Post, Laurie; Warren, Benjamin; Thompson, Sterling; Bontempo, Ann Rogers

2013-04-01

Recalls and/or outbreaks associated with Salmonella contamination in peanut-containing products were reported over the past several years. There are very limited data available on the prevalence and concentration of Salmonella on raw shelled peanuts in the United States. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on raw shelled peanuts in the United States and to estimate that concentration of Salmonella. Samples of Runner- and Virginia-type raw shelled peanuts from the 2008, 2009, and 2010 crop years were proportionately sampled from each growing region, based on 2007 production volume. Of 944 raw shelled peanut samples (375 g each), 22 (2.33%) were positive for Salmonella by the VIDAS Salmonella assay. Salmonella serovars identified in this study included Agona, Anatum, Braenderup, Dessau, Hartford, Meleagridis, Muenchen, Rodepoort, Tennessee, and Tornow. The concentration levels of Salmonella in positive samples, as determined by a most-probable-number assay, were <0.03 to 2.4 MPN/g. These data will be useful when designing and validating processes for the reduction or elimination of Salmonella in peanuts and/or peanut-containing products.

Data-based hybrid tension estimation and fault diagnosis of cold rolling continuous annealing processes.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong; Qin, Si-Zhao Joe

2011-12-01

The continuous annealing process line (CAPL) of cold rolling is an important unit to improve the mechanical properties of steel strips in steel making. In continuous annealing processes, strip tension is an important factor, which indicates whether the line operates steadily. Abnormal tension profile distribution along the production line can lead to strip break and roll slippage. Therefore, it is essential to estimate the whole tension profile in order to prevent the occurrence of faults. However, in real annealing processes, only a limited number of strip tension sensors are installed along the machine direction. Since the effects of strip temperature, gas flow, bearing friction, strip inertia, and roll eccentricity can lead to nonlinear tension dynamics, it is difficult to apply the first-principles induced model to estimate the tension profile distribution. In this paper, a novel data-based hybrid tension estimation and fault diagnosis method is proposed to estimate the unmeasured tension between two neighboring rolls. The main model is established by an observer-based method using a limited number of measured tensions, speeds, and currents of each roll, where the tension error compensation model is designed by applying neural networks principal component regression. The corresponding tension fault diagnosis method is designed using the estimated tensions. Finally, the proposed tension estimation and fault diagnosis method was applied to a real CAPL in a steel-making company, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Fitting N-mixture models to count data with unmodeled heterogeneity: Bias, diagnostics, and alternative approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, Adam; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

2018-01-01

Monitoring animal populations is central to wildlife and fisheries management, and the use of N-mixture models toward these efforts has markedly increased in recent years. Nevertheless, relatively little work has evaluated estimator performance when basic assumptions are violated. Moreover, diagnostics to identify when bias in parameter estimates from N-mixture models is likely is largely unexplored. We simulated count data sets using 837 combinations of detection probability, number of sample units, number of survey occasions, and type and extent of heterogeneity in abundance or detectability. We fit Poisson N-mixture models to these data, quantified the bias associated with each combination, and evaluated if the parametric bootstrap goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can be used to indicate bias in parameter estimates. We also explored if assumption violations can be diagnosed prior to fitting N-mixture models. In doing so, we propose a new model diagnostic, which we term the quasi-coefficient of variation (QCV). N-mixture models performed well when assumptions were met and detection probabilities were moderate (i.e., ≥0.3), and the performance of the estimator improved with increasing survey occasions and sample units. However, the magnitude of bias in estimated mean abundance with even slight amounts of unmodeled heterogeneity was substantial. The parametric bootstrap GOF test did not perform well as a diagnostic for bias in parameter estimates when detectability and sample sizes were low. The results indicate the QCV is useful to diagnose potential bias and that potential bias associated with unidirectional trends in abundance or detectability can be diagnosed using Poisson regression. This study represents the most thorough assessment to date of assumption violations and diagnostics when fitting N-mixture models using the most commonly implemented error distribution. Unbiased estimates of population state variables are needed to properly inform management decision making. Therefore, we also discuss alternative approaches to yield unbiased estimates of population state variables using similar data types, and we stress that there is no substitute for an effective sample design that is grounded upon well-defined management objectives.

The impact of smoke-free workplaces on declining cigarette consumption in Australia and the United States.

PubMed Central

Chapman, S; Borland, R; Scollo, M; Brownson, R C; Dominello, A; Woodward, S

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the contribution of smoke-free workplaces to the recent national declines in cigarette consumption in Australia and the United States. METHODS: Nineteen studies of the impact of smoke-free workplaces on workday cigarette consumption were reviewed. The number and cost of cigarettes forgone were calculated and extrapolated to a scenario in which all indoor work areas were smoke-free. RESULTS: Of the 19 studies, 18 reported declines in daily smoking rates, and 17 reported declines in smoking prevalence. Smoke-free workplaces are currently responsible for an annual reduction of some 602 million cigarettes, or 1.8% of all cigarettes that might otherwise be consumed, in Australia, and an annual reduction of 9.7 billion cigarettes (2%) in the United States. Approximately 22.3% of the 2.7 billion decrease in cigarette consumption in Australia between 1988 and 1995 can be attributed to smoke-free workplaces, as can 12.7% of the 76.5 billion decrease in the United States between 1988 and 1994. CONCLUSIONS: If workplaces were universally smoke-free, the number of cigarettes forgone annually would increase to 1.14 billion (3.4%) in Australia and 20.9 billion (4.1%) in the United States. PMID:10394309

[Incidence of multi-resistant bacteria in Intensive Care Units of Chilean hospitals].

PubMed

Acuña, M Paz; Cifuentes, Marcela; Silva, Francisco; Rojas, Álvaro; Cerda, Jaime; Labarca, Jaime

2017-12-01

Incidence of multi-resistant bacteria is an indicator that permits better estimation of the magnitude of bacterial resistance in hospitals. To evaluate the incidence of relevant multi-drug resistant bacteria in intensive care units (ICUs) of Chile. Participating hospitals submitted information about the number of isolates from infected or colonized patients with 7 epidemiologically relevant multi-resistant bacteria in adult and pediatric ICUs between January 1, 2014 and October 31, 2015 and the number of bed days occupied in these units in the same period was requested. With these data incidence was calculated per 1,000 patient days for each unit. Information from 20 adults and 9 pediatric ICUs was reviewed. In adult ICUs the bacteria with the highest incidence were K. pneumoniae ESBL [4.72 × 1,000 patient day (1.21-13.89)] and oxacillin -resistant S. aureus [3.85 (0.71-12.66)]. In the pediatric units the incidence was lower, highlighting K. pneumoniae ESBL [2.71 (0-7.11)] and carbapenem -resistant P. aeruginosa [1.61 (0.31-9.25)]. Important differences between hospitals in the incidence of these bacteria were observed. Incidence of multi-resistant bacteria in adult ICU was significantly higher than in pediatric ICU for most of the studied bacterias.

Visual Impairment in Preschool Children in the United States: Demographic and Geographic Variations From 2015 to 2060.

PubMed

Varma, Rohit; Tarczy-Hornoch, Kristina; Jiang, Xuejuan

2017-06-01

Visual impairment (VI) in early childhood can significantly impair development. To determine demographic and geographic variations in VI in children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States in 2015 and to estimate projected prevalence through 2060. Descriptive study reporting statistics estimated based on prevalence data from 2 major population-based studies conducted in the United States between 2003 and 2011. Using US census projections, prevalence of VI and cause-specific VI in the better eye were reported by race/ethnicity, state and region, and per capita prevalence of VI by state. The study included preschool children in the United States. Analyses for this study were conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. Prevalence of VI among children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States. In 2015, more than 174 000 children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States were visually impaired. Almost 121 000 of these cases (69%) arose from simple uncorrected refractive error, and 43 000 (25%) from bilateral amblyopia. By 2060, the number of children aged 3 to 5 years with VI is projected to increase by 26%. In 2015, Hispanic white children accounted for the highest number of VI cases (66 000); this group will remain the most affected through 2060, with an increasingly large proportion of cases (37.7% in 2015 and 43.6% in 2060). The racial/ethnic group with the second most VI is projected to shift from non-Hispanic white children (26.3% in 2015 decreasing to 16.5% in 2060) to African American children (24.5% in 2015 and 22.0% in 2060). From 2015 to 2060, the states projected to have the most children with VI are California (26 600 in 2015 and 38 000 in 2060), Texas (21 500 in 2015 and 29 100 in 2060), and Florida (10 900 in 2015 and 13 900 in 2060). These data suggest that the number of preschool children with VI is projected to increase disproportionally, especially among minority populations. Vision screening for refractive error and related eye diseases may prevent a high proportion of preschool children from experiencing unnecessary VI and associated developmental delays.

Visual Impairment in Preschool Children in the United States

PubMed Central

Tarczy-Hornoch, Kristina; Jiang, Xuejuan

2017-01-01

Importance Visual impairment (VI) in early childhood can significantly impair development. Objective To determine demographic and geographic variations in VI in children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States in 2015 and to estimate projected prevalence through 2060. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive study reporting statistics estimated based on prevalence data from 2 major population-based studies conducted in the United States between 2003 and 2011. Using US census projections, prevalence of VI and cause-specific VI in the better eye were reported by race/ethnicity, state and region, and per capita prevalence of VI by state. The study included preschool children in the United States. Analyses for this study were conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Prevalence of VI among children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States. Results In 2015, more than 174 000 children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States were visually impaired. Almost 121 000 of these cases (69%) arose from simple uncorrected refractive error, and 43 000 (25%) from bilateral amblyopia. By 2060, the number of children aged 3 to 5 years with VI is projected to increase by 26%. In 2015, Hispanic white children accounted for the highest number of VI cases (66 000); this group will remain the most affected through 2060, with an increasingly large proportion of cases (37.7% in 2015 and 43.6% in 2060). The racial/ethnic group with the second most VI is projected to shift from non-Hispanic white children (26.3% in 2015 decreasing to 16.5% in 2060) to African American children (24.5% in 2015 and 22.0% in 2060). From 2015 to 2060, the states projected to have the most children with VI are California (26 600 in 2015 and 38 000 in 2060), Texas (21 500 in 2015 and 29 100 in 2060), and Florida (10 900 in 2015 and 13 900 in 2060). Conclusions and Relevance These data suggest that the number of preschool children with VI is projected to increase disproportionally, especially among minority populations. Vision screening for refractive error and related eye diseases may prevent a high proportion of preschool children from experiencing unnecessary VI and associated developmental delays. PMID:28472231

Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths - Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969-2020.

PubMed

Weir, Hannah K; Anderson, Robert N; Coleman King, Sallyann M; Soman, Ashwini; Thompson, Trevor D; Hong, Yuling; Moller, Bjorn; Leadbetter, Steven

2016-11-17

Heart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020. We used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging. We predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (-73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (-73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (-33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (-23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied. Risk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020.

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

2011-01-01

We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at an average rate of 4.9±2.2(SE) percent annually since 2004. We caution that the estimated rate of population growth may be conservative if severe spring weather deterred some mountain goats from reaching the high-elevation survey areas during the 2011 surveys. If the estimated average rate of population growth were to remain constant in the future, then the population would double in approximately 14-15 years.

Uranium resource assessment by the Geological Survey; methodology and plan to update the national resource base

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finch, Warren Irvin; McCammon, Richard B.

1987-01-01

Based on the Memorandum of Understanding {MOU) of September 20, 1984, between the U.S. Geological Survey of the U.S. Department of Interior and the Energy Information Administration {EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy {DOE), the U.S. Geological Survey began to make estimates of the undiscovered uranium endowment of selected areas of the United States in 1985. A modified NURE {National Uranium Resource Evaluation) method will be used in place of the standard NURE method of the DOE that was used for the national assessment reported in October 1980. The modified method, here named the 'deposit-size-frequency' {DSF) method, is presented for the first time, and calculations by the two methods are compared using an illustrative example based on preliminary estimates for the first area to be evaluated under the MOU. The results demonstrate that the estimate of the endowment using the DSF method is significantly larger and more uncertain than the estimate obtained by the NURE method. We believe that the DSF method produces a more realistic estimate because the principal factor estimated in the endowment equation is disaggregated into more parts and is more closely tied to specific geologic knowledge than by the NURE method. The DSF method consists of modifying the standard NURE estimation equation, U=AxFxTxG, by replacing the factors FxT by a single factor that represents the tonnage for the total number of deposits in all size classes. Use of the DSF method requires that the size frequency of deposits in a known or control area has been established and that the relation of the size-frequency distribution of deposits to probable controlling geologic factors has been determined. Using these relations, the principal scientist {PS) first estimates the number and range of size classes and then, for each size class, estimates the lower limit, most likely value, and upper limit of the numbers of deposits in the favorable area. Once these probable estimates have been refined by elicitation of the PS, they are entered into the DSF equation, and the probability distribution of estimates of undiscovered uranium endowment is calculated using a slight modification of the program by Ford and McLaren (1980). The EIA study of the viability of the domestic uranium industry requires an annual appraisal of the U.S. uranium resource situation. During DOE's NURE Program, which was terminated in 1983, a thorough assessment of the Nation's resources was completed. A comprehensive reevaluation of uranium resource base for the entire United States is not possible for each annual appraisal. A few areas are in need of future study, however, because of new developments in either scientific knowledge, industry exploration, or both. Four geologic environments have been selected for study by the U.S. Geological Survey in the next several years: (1) surficial uranium deposits throughout the conterminous United States, (2) uranium in collapse-breccia pipes in the Grand Canyon region of Arizona, (3) uranium in Tertiary sedimentary rocks of the Northern Great Plains, and (4) uranium in metamorphic rocks of the Piedmont province in the eastern States. In addition to participation in the National uranium resource assessment, the U.S. Geological Survey will take part in activities of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and those of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Use of cost-effectiveness analysis to determine inventory size for a national cord blood bank.

PubMed

Howard, David H; Meltzer, David; Kollman, Craig; Maiers, Martin; Logan, Brent; Gragert, Loren; Setterholm, Michelle; Horowitz, Mary M

2008-01-01

Transplantation with stem cells from stored umbilical cord blood units is an alternative to living unrelated bone marrow transplantation. The larger the inventory of stored cord units, the greater the likelihood that transplant candidates will match to a unit, but storing units is costly. The authors present the results of a study, commissioned by the Institute of Medicine, as part of a report on the establishment of a national cord blood bank, examining the optimal inventory level. They emphasize the unique challenges of undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis in this field and the contribution of the analysis to policy. The authors estimate the likelihood that transplant candidates will match to a living unrelated marrow donor or a cord blood unit as a function of cord blood inventory and then calculate the life-years gained for each transplant type by match level using historical data. They develop a model of the cord blood inventory level to estimate total costs as a function of the number of stored units. The cost per life-year gained associated with increasing inventory from 50,000 to 100,000 units is $44,000 to $86,000 and from 100,000 to 150,000 units is $64,000 to $153,000, depending on the assumption about the degree to which survival rates for cord transplants vary by match quality. Expanding the cord blood inventory above current levels is cost-effective by conventional standards. The analysis helped shape the Institute of Medicine's report, but it is difficult to determine the extent to which the analysis influenced subsequent congressional legislation.

Estimated Number of Preterm Births and Low Birth Weight Children Born in the United States Due to Maternal Binge Drinking

PubMed Central

Truong, Khoa D; Reifsnider, Odette S; Mayorga, Maria E; Spitler, Hugh

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate the aggregate burden of maternal binge drinking on preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) across American sociodemographic groups in 2008. Methods A simulation model was developed to estimate the number of PTB and LBW cases due to maternal binge drinking. Data inputs for the model included number of births and rates of preterm and LBW from the National Center for Health Statistics; female population by childbearing age groups from the U.S. Census; increased relative risks of preterm and LBW deliveries due to maternal binge drinking extracted from the literature; and adjusted prevalence of binge drinking among pregnant women estimated in a multivariate logistic regression model using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Results The most conservative estimates attributed maternal binge drinking to 8,701 (95% CI: 7,804–9,598) PTBs (1.75% of all PTBs) and 5,627 (95% CI 5,121–6,133) LBW deliveries in 2008, with 3,708 (95% CI: 3,375–4,041) cases of both PTB and LBW. The estimated rate of PTB due to maternal binge drinking was 1.57% among all PTBs to White women, 0.69% among Black women, 3.31% among Hispanic women, and 2.35% among other races. Compared to other age groups, women ages 40–44 had the highest adjusted binge drinking rate and highest PTB rate due to maternal binge drinking (4.33%). Conclusion Maternal binge drinking contributed significantly to PTB and LBW differentially across sociodemographic groups. PMID:22711260

Mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Surakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, H. N.; Saputro, D. R. S.; Susanti, Y.

2017-06-01

MGWR model is combination of linear regression model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, therefore, MGWR model could produce parameter estimation that had global parameter estimation, and other parameter that had local parameter in accordance with its observation location. The linkage between locations of the observations expressed in specific weighting that is adaptive bi-square. In this research, we applied MGWR model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of DHF in Surakarta based on 10 factors (variables) that is supposed to influence the number of people with DHF. The observation unit in the research is 51 urban villages and the variables are number of inhabitants, number of houses, house index, many public places, number of healthy homes, number of Posyandu, area width, level population density, welfare of the family, and high-region. Based on this research, we obtained 51 MGWR models. The MGWR model were divided into 4 groups with significant variable is house index as a global variable, an area width as a local variable and the remaining variables vary in each. Global variables are variables that significantly affect all locations, while local variables are variables that significantly affect a specific location.

Burden of osteoporosis and fractures.

PubMed

Keen, Richard W

2003-09-01

Osteoporosis currently affects up to one in three women and one in 12 men. In 1990, there were 1.6 million hip fractures per annum worldwide and this number is estimated to reach 6 million by 2050. This increase in the number of fractures is due to an increase in the number of elderly people in the population, improved survival, and an increase in the age-specific fracture rates of unknown etiology. The rising number of osteoporotic fractures and their associated morbidity will place a heavy burden on future health care resources. In the United States, the cost for the management of osteoporosis has been estimated at $17 billion. The majority of this cost is spent on the acute surgical and medical management following hip fracture, and the subsequent rehabilitation. Currently, only minimal costs are utilized for treatment and prevention of osteoporosis. Hopefully, however, an accurate assessment of the burden of osteoporosis on the individual and the health care system will enable the targeting of resources to tackle this growing problem. With an increasing number of effective pharmaceutical interventions, it is critical that these agents are targeted to those at greatest risk for future fracture. This will ultimately reduce the burden of osteoporosis in future years.

Number of perceptually distinct surface colors in natural scenes.

PubMed

Marín-Franch, Iván; Foster, David H

2010-09-30

The ability to perceptually identify distinct surfaces in natural scenes by virtue of their color depends not only on the relative frequency of surface colors but also on the probabilistic nature of observer judgments. Previous methods of estimating the number of discriminable surface colors, whether based on theoretical color gamuts or recorded from real scenes, have taken a deterministic approach. Thus, a three-dimensional representation of the gamut of colors is divided into elementary cells or points which are spaced at one discrimination-threshold unit intervals and which are then counted. In this study, information-theoretic methods were used to take into account both differing surface-color frequencies and observer response uncertainty. Spectral radiances were calculated from 50 hyperspectral images of natural scenes and were represented in a perceptually almost uniform color space. The average number of perceptually distinct surface colors was estimated as 7.3 × 10(3), much smaller than that based on counting methods. This number is also much smaller than the number of distinct points in a scene that are, in principle, available for reliable identification under illuminant changes, suggesting that color constancy, or the lack of it, does not generally determine the limit on the use of color for surface identification.

Tables for the Rapid Estimation of Downwash and Sidewash Behind Wings Performing Various Motions at Supersonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobbitt, Percy J.

1959-01-01

Equations for the downwash and sidewash due to supersonic yawed and unswept horseshoe vortices have been utilized in formulating tables and charts to permit a rapid estimation of the flow velocities behind wings performing various steady motions. Tabulations are presented of the downwash and sidewash in the wing vertical plane of symmetry due to a unit-strength yawed horseshoe vortex located at 20 equally spaced spanwise positions along lifting lines of various sweeps. (The bound portion of the yawed vortex is coincident with the lifting line.) Charts are presented for the purpose of estimating the spanwise variations of the flow-field velocities and give longitudinal variations of the downwash and sidewash at a nuMber of vertical and spanwise locations due to a unit-strength unswept horseshoe vortex. Use of the tables and charts to calculate wing downwash or sidewash requires a knowledge of the wing spanwise distribution of circulation. Sample computations for the rolling sidewash and angle-of-attack downwash behind a typical swept wing are presented to demonstrate the use of the tables and charts.

The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Basta, Nicole E; Chao, Dennis L; Matrajt, Laura; Potter, Gail; Kenah, Eben; Longini, Ira M

2009-10-30

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

Neck injuries presenting to emergency departments in the United States from 1990 to 1999 for ice hockey, soccer, and American football

PubMed Central

Delaney, J; Al-Kashmiri, A

2005-01-01

Objective: To examine the number and rate of neck injuries in the community as a whole for ice hockey, soccer, and American football by analysing data from patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States from 1990 to 1999. Methods: Data compiled for the US Consumer Product Safety Commission were used to generate estimates for the total number of neck injuries and the more specific diagnoses of neck fractures, dislocations, contusions, sprains, strains, and lacerations occurring nationally from 1990 to 1999. These data were combined with yearly participation figures to generate rates of injury presenting to emergency departments for each sport. Results: There were an estimated 5038 neck injuries from ice hockey, 19 341 from soccer, and 114 706 from American football. These could be broken down as follows: 4964 contusions, sprains, or strains from ice hockey, 17 927 from soccer, and 104 483 from football; 105 neck fractures or dislocations from ice hockey, 214 from soccer, and 1588 from football; 199 neck lacerations for ice hockey, 0 for soccer, and 621 for football. The rates for total neck injuries and combined neck contusions, sprains, or strains were higher for football than for ice hockey or soccer in all years for which data were available. Conclusion: The rate of neck injury in the United States was higher in football than in ice hockey or soccer in the time period studied. PMID:15793079

Neck injuries presenting to emergency departments in the United States from 1990 to 1999 for ice hockey, soccer, and American football.

PubMed

Delaney, J S; Al-Kashmiri, A

2005-04-01

To examine the number and rate of neck injuries in the community as a whole for ice hockey, soccer, and American football by analysing data from patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States from 1990 to 1999. Data compiled for the US Consumer Product Safety Commission were used to generate estimates for the total number of neck injuries and the more specific diagnoses of neck fractures, dislocations, contusions, sprains, strains, and lacerations occurring nationally from 1990 to 1999. These data were combined with yearly participation figures to generate rates of injury presenting to emergency departments for each sport. There were an estimated 5038 neck injuries from ice hockey, 19,341 from soccer, and 114 706 from American football. These could be broken down as follows: 4964 contusions, sprains, or strains from ice hockey, 17,927 from soccer, and 104 483 from football; 105 neck fractures or dislocations from ice hockey, 214 from soccer, and 1588 from football; 199 neck lacerations for ice hockey, 0 for soccer, and 621 for football. The rates for total neck injuries and combined neck contusions, sprains, or strains were higher for football than for ice hockey or soccer in all years for which data were available. The rate of neck injury in the United States was higher in football than in ice hockey or soccer in the time period studied.

Application of DNA barcoding in biodiversity studies of shallow-water octocorals: molecular proxies agree with morphological estimates of species richness in Palau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFadden, C. S.; Brown, A. S.; Brayton, C.; Hunt, C. B.; van Ofwegen, L. P.

2014-06-01

The application of DNA barcoding to anthozoan cnidarians has been hindered by their slow rates of mitochondrial gene evolution and the failure to identify alternative molecular markers that distinguish species reliably. Among octocorals, however, multilocus barcodes can distinguish up to 70 % of morphospecies, thereby facilitating the identification of species that are ecologically important but still very poorly known taxonomically. We tested the ability of these imperfect DNA barcodes to estimate species richness in a biodiversity survey of the shallow-water octocoral fauna of Palau using multilocus ( COI, mtMutS, 28S rDNA) sequences obtained from 305 specimens representing 38 genera of octocorals. Numbers and identities of species were estimated independently (1) by a taxonomic expert using morphological criteria and (2) by assigning sequences to molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) using predefined genetic distance thresholds. Estimated numbers of MOTUs ranged from 73 to 128 depending on the barcode and distance threshold applied, bracketing the estimated number of 118 morphospecies. Concordance between morphospecies identifications and MOTUs ranged from 71 to 75 % and differed little among barcodes. For the speciose and ecologically dominant genus Sinularia, however, we were able to identify 95 % of specimens correctly simply by comparing mtMutS sequences and in situ photographs of colonies to an existing vouchered database. Because we lack a clear understanding of species boundaries in most of these taxa, numbers of morphospecies and MOTUs are both estimates of the true species diversity, and we cannot currently determine which is more accurate. Our results suggest, however, that the two methods provide comparable estimates of species richness for shallow-water Indo-Pacific octocorals. Use of molecular barcodes in biodiversity surveys will facilitate comparisons of species richness and composition among localities and over time, data that do not currently exist for any octocoral community.

Managing Food Allergies in School: What Educators Need to Know

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrow, Eleanor

2011-01-01

An estimated 2.2 million school-age children in the United States have food allergies, and that number seems to be on the rise. What's more, survey studies indicate that one out of six kids with food allergies will have an allergic reaction while in school and that 25% of these reactions will be first-time reactions. If a district has not yet…

Profile of Undergraduate Students: Trends from Selected Years, 1995-96 to 2007-08. Web Tables. NCES 2010-220

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staklis, Sandra; Chen, Xianglei

2010-01-01

From 1995-96 to 2007-08, the number of students enrolled in undergraduate education in the United States grew from about 16.7 million to 21 million. These Web Tables provide information on undergraduates during the 1995-96, 1999-2000, 2003-04, and 2007-08 academic years. Estimates are presented for all undergraduates and for undergraduates who…

Can live tree size-density relationships provide a mechanism for predicting down and dead tree resources?

Treesearch

Christopher Woodall; James Westfall

2009-01-01

Live tree size-density relationships in forests have long provided a framework for understanding stand dynamics. There has been little examination of the relationship between the size-density attributes of live and standing/down dead trees (e.g., number and mean tree size per unit area, such information could help in large-scale efforts to estimate dead wood resources...

Problem Solvers: Problem--Counting Is for the Birds and Solutions--Multiplication along the Silk Road

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Carolyn M.

2010-01-01

Connecting mathematical thinking to the natural world can be as simple as looking up to the sky. Volunteer bird watchers around the world help scientists gather data about bird populations. Counting flying birds might inspire new estimation methods, such as counting the number of birds per unit of time and then timing the whole flock's flight. In…

Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Summary of National Findings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2011

2011-01-01

This report presents a first look at results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), an annual survey of the civilian, noninstitutionalized population of the United States aged 12 years old or older. The report presents national estimates of rates of use, numbers of users, and other measures related to illicit drugs, alcohol,…

Undocumented Latino Parents' Access to Services for Their Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Narrative Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mora-Lopez, Marie

2016-01-01

An estimated 13 percent of children in the U.S. ages 3-21 have special needs. The Latino population is the largest minority group in the United States, and in this group there is an increasing number of Latino parents with children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The problem is that the combined negative effects of Latinos occupying three…

The Gender Gap in Youth Sports: Too Many Urban Girls Are Being Left Behind

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabo, Don

2009-01-01

The last several decades have witnessed a large increase in the number of girls who participate in sports in the United States. Today an estimated 8 million third- through 12th-grade girls and 12 million boys participate in organized and team sports. While much progress has been made toward achieving gender equity in youth sports, too many girls…

Practical Nursing Education. A Guide for Teaching Basic Concepts and Skills in the Use of Drugs. Pamphlet Number 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Elizabeth M.

Intended to assist teachers in either basic or continuing education programs to convey knowledge, techniques, and attitudes pertaining to drugs, the pamphlet outlines instruction which is estimated to require 70 to 100 hours of which 50 to 80 should be scheduled for classroom work and 20 hours for clinical work. Three units containing concepts…

Ab initio phasing based on topological restraints: automated determination of the space group and the number of molecules in the unit cell.

PubMed

Urzhumtseva, Ludmila; Lunina, Natalia; Fokine, Andrei; Samama, Jean Pierre; Lunin, Vladimir Y; Urzhumtsev, Alexandre

2004-09-01

The connectivity-based phasing method has been demonstrated to be capable of finding molecular packing and envelopes even for difficult cases of structure determination, as well as of identifying, in favorable cases, secondary-structure elements of protein molecules in the crystal. This method uses a single set of structure factor magnitudes and general topological features of a crystallographic image of the macromolecule under study. This information is expressed through a number of parameters. Most of these parameters are easy to estimate, and the results of phasing are practically independent of these parameters when they are chosen within reasonable limits. By contrast, the correct choice for such parameters as the expected number of connected regions in the unit cell is sometimes ambiguous. To study these dependencies, numerous tests were performed with simulated data, experimental data and mixed data sets, where several reflections missed in the experiment were completed by computed data. This paper demonstrates that the procedure is able to control this choice automatically and helps in difficult cases to identify the correct number of molecules in the asymmetric unit. In addition, the procedure behaves abnormally if the space group is defined incorrectly and therefore may distinguish between the rotation and screw axes even when high-resolution data are not available.

Systematic, cross-cortex variation in neuron numbers in rodents and primates.

PubMed

Charvet, Christine J; Cahalane, Diarmuid J; Finlay, Barbara L

2015-01-01

Uniformity, local variability, and systematic variation in neuron numbers per unit of cortical surface area across species and cortical areas have been claimed to characterize the isocortex. Resolving these claims has been difficult, because species, techniques, and cortical areas vary across studies. We present a stereological assessment of neuron numbers in layers II-IV and V-VI per unit of cortical surface area across the isocortex in rodents (hamster, Mesocricetus auratus; agouti, Dasyprocta azarae; paca, Cuniculus paca) and primates (owl monkey, Aotus trivigratus; tamarin, Saguinus midas; capuchin, Cebus apella); these chosen to vary systematically in cortical size. The contributions of species, cortical areas, and techniques (stereology, "isotropic fractionator") to neuron estimates were assessed. Neurons per unit of cortical surface area increase across the rostro-caudal (RC) axis in primates (varying by a factor of 1.64-2.13 across the rostral and caudal poles) but less in rodents (varying by a factor of 1.15-1.54). Layer II-IV neurons account for most of this variation. When integrated into the context of species variation, and this RC gradient in neuron numbers, conflicts between studies can be accounted for. The RC variation in isocortical neurons in adulthood mirrors the gradients in neurogenesis duration in development. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hysteroscopic morcellation: review of the manufacturer and user facility device experience (MAUDE) database.

PubMed

Haber, Karina; Hawkins, Eleanor; Levie, Mark; Chudnoff, Scott

2015-01-01

To investigate the number and type of adverse events associated with hysteroscopic morcellation of intrauterine disease. Systematic review of Manufacturer and User Device Experience (MAUDE) database from 2005 to June 2014 (Canadian Task Force classification III). Women undergoing hysteroscopic surgery for removal of intrauterine polyps or myomas with use of a reciprocating morcellator. The MAUDE database was searched for the key words "Hysteroscope," "Hysteroscopic reciprocating morcellator," "Interlace," "MyoSure," "Smith & Nephew," and "TRUCLEAR," to identify reported incidences of device malfunction, injury, or death. A total of 119 adverse events were analyzed. Reports were reviewed individually and categorized by date of occurrence, type of morcellation device, type of complication, and a brief description. Each company was contacted to provide an estimate of the number of procedures performed or units sold to date. From 2005 to June 2014, 119 adverse events were reported to the MAUDE database. On the basis of severity, adverse events were categorized as major or minor complications. Major events included intubation/admission to an intensive care unit (n = 14), bowel damage (n = 12), hysterectomy (n = 6), and death (n = 2). Minor events included uterine perforation requiring no other treatment (n = 29), device failure (n = 25), uncomplicated fluid overload (n = 19), postoperative bleeding controlled using noninvasive measures (n = 6), and pelvic infection (n = 4). These events were then categorized according to manufacturer. The number of adverse events reported to the MAUDE database was divided by the total units sold as a surrogate for the estimated number of procedures performed. Understanding the limitation of the numbers used as a numerator and denominator, we concluded that adverse events complicated hysteroscopic morcellation in <0.1% cases. The suction-based, mechanical energy, rotating tubular cutting system was developed to overcome adverse events that occur during traditional resectoscopy. On the basis of acknowledged limited information from the MAUDE database, it seems that life-threatening complications such as fluid overload, uterine perforation, and bleeding do occur with hysteroscopic morcellation but less frequently than with traditional electrocautery. Copyright © 2015 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated number of preterm births and low birth weight children born in the United States due to maternal binge drinking.

PubMed

Truong, Khoa D; Reifsnider, Odette S; Mayorga, Maria E; Spitler, Hugh

2013-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the aggregate burden of maternal binge drinking on preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) across American sociodemographic groups in 2008. To estimate the aggregate burden of maternal binge drinking on preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) across American sociodemographic groups in 2008. A simulation model was developed to estimate the number of PTB and LBW cases due to maternal binge drinking. Data inputs for the model included number of births and rates of preterm and LBW from the National Center for Health Statistics; female population by childbearing age groups from the U.S. Census; increased relative risks of preterm and LBW deliveries due to maternal binge drinking extracted from the literature; and adjusted prevalence of binge drinking among pregnant women estimated in a multivariate logistic regression model using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. The most conservative estimates attributed maternal binge drinking to 8,701 (95% CI: 7,804-9,598) PTBs (1.75% of all PTBs) and 5,627 (95% CI 5,121-6,133) LBW deliveries in 2008, with 3,708 (95% CI: 3,375-4,041) cases of both PTB and LBW. The estimated rate of PTB due to maternal binge drinking was 1.57% among all PTBs to White women, 0.69% among Black women, 3.31% among Hispanic women, and 2.35% among other races. Compared to other age groups, women ages 40-44 had the highest adjusted binge drinking rate and highest PTB rate due to maternal binge drinking (4.33%). Maternal binge drinking contributed significantly to PTB and LBW differentially across sociodemographic groups.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folga, Steve; Portante, Edgar; Shamsuddin, Shabbir

2016-10-01

This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured acrossmore » all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.« less

Paediatric burn unit in Portugal: Beds needed using a bed-day approach.

PubMed

Santos, João V; Viana, João; Amarante, José; Freitas, Alberto

2017-03-01

Despite the high burden of children with burns, there is not a paediatric burn unit (PBU) in Portugal. We aimed to estimate the Portuguese health care providing needs on paediatric burns. We performed a nation-wide retrospective study, between 2009 and 2013, among less than 16 years-old inpatients with burns that met the transfer criteria to a burn unit in Portugal. A bed-day approach was used, targeting an occupancy rate of 70-75%, and possible locations were studied. The primary outcome was the number of beds needed, and secondary outcomes were the overload and revenue for each possible number of beds in a PBU. A total of 1155 children met the transfer criteria to a burn unit, representing a total of 17,371 bed-days. Occupancy rates of 11-bed, 12-bed, 13-bed and 14-bed PBU were, respectively, 79.7%, 75.3%, 71.0% and 66.8%. The 13-bed PBU scenario would represent an overload of 523 bed-days, revenue of more than 5 million Euros and a ratio of 1 PBU bed per 123,409 children. Using a groundbreaking approach, the optimal number of PBU beds needed in Portugal is 13. However, as half of the patients who met burn transfer criteria are not transferred, this bed number might be overestimated if this pattern maintains, despite the underestimation with our method approach. If a PBU is to be created the preferable location is Porto. Cost-effectiveness studies should be performed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Financial impact of adopting implantable loop recorder diagnostic for unexplained syncope compared with conventional diagnostic pathway in Portugal.

PubMed

Providência, Rui; Candeias, Rui; Morais, Carlos; Reis, Hipólito; Elvas, Luís; Sanfins, Vitor; Farinha, Sara; Eggington, Simon; Tsintzos, Stelios

2014-05-06

To estimate the short- and long-term financial impact of early referral for implantable loop recorder diagnostic (ILR) versus conventional diagnostic pathway (CDP) in the management of unexplained syncope (US) in the Portuguese National Health Service (PNHS). A Markov model was developed to estimate the expected number of hospital admissions due to US and its respective financial impact in patients implanted with ILR versus CDP. The average cost of a syncope episode admission was estimated based on Portuguese cost data and landmark papers. The financial impact of ILR adoption was estimated for a total of 197 patients with US, based on the number of syncope admissions per year in the PNHS. Sensitivity analysis was performed to take into account the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters (hazard ratio of death; number of syncope events per year; probabilities and unit costs of each diagnostic test; probability of trauma and yield of diagnosis) over three-year and lifetime horizons. The average cost of a syncope event was estimated to be between 1,760€ and 2,800€. Over a lifetime horizon, the total discounted costs of hospital admissions and syncope diagnosis for the entire cohort were 23% lower amongst patients in the ILR group compared with the CDP group (1,204,621€ for ILR, versus 1,571,332€ for CDP). The utilization of ILR leads to an earlier diagnosis and lower number of syncope hospital admissions and investigations, thus allowing significant cost offsets in the Portuguese setting. The result is robust to changes in the input parameter values, and cost savings become more pronounced over time.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977.

PubMed

Korennoy, F I; Gulenkin, V M; Gogin, A E; Vergne, T; Karaulov, A K

2017-12-01

In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6 months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R 0 ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R 0 both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Variability of dental cone beam CT grey values for density estimations

PubMed Central

Pauwels, R; Nackaerts, O; Bellaiche, N; Stamatakis, H; Tsiklakis, K; Walker, A; Bosmans, H; Bogaerts, R; Jacobs, R; Horner, K

2013-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the use of dental cone beam CT (CBCT) grey values for density estimations by calculating the correlation with multislice CT (MSCT) values and the grey value error after recalibration. Methods A polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom was developed containing inserts of different density: air, PMMA, hydroxyapatite (HA) 50 mg cm−3, HA 100, HA 200 and aluminium. The phantom was scanned on 13 CBCT devices and 1 MSCT device. Correlation between CBCT grey values and CT numbers was calculated, and the average error of the CBCT values was estimated in the medium-density range after recalibration. Results Pearson correlation coefficients ranged between 0.7014 and 0.9996 in the full-density range and between 0.5620 and 0.9991 in the medium-density range. The average error of CBCT voxel values in the medium-density range was between 35 and 1562. Conclusion Even though most CBCT devices showed a good overall correlation with CT numbers, large errors can be seen when using the grey values in a quantitative way. Although it could be possible to obtain pseudo-Hounsfield units from certain CBCTs, alternative methods of assessing bone tissue should be further investigated. Advances in knowledge The suitability of dental CBCT for density estimations was assessed, involving a large number of devices and protocols. The possibility for grey value calibration was thoroughly investigated. PMID:23255537

Economic Burden of Occupational Injury and Illness in the United States

PubMed Central

Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Context The allocation of scarce health care resources requires a knowledge of disease costs. Whereas many studies of a variety of diseases are available, few focus on job-related injuries and illnesses. This article provides estimates of the national costs of occupational injury and illness among civilians in the United States for 2007. Methods This study provides estimates of both the incidence of fatal and nonfatal injuries and nonfatal illnesses and the prevalence of fatal diseases as well as both medical and indirect (productivity) costs. To generate the estimates, I combined primary and secondary data sources with parameters from the literature and model assumptions. My primary sources were injury, disease, employment, and inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as costs data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. My secondary sources were the National Academy of Social Insurance, literature estimates of Attributable Fractions (AF) of diseases with occupational components, and national estimates for all health care costs. Critical model assumptions were applied to the underreporting of injuries, wage-replacement rates, and AFs. Total costs were calculated by multiplying the number of cases by the average cost per case. A sensitivity analysis tested for the effects of the most consequential assumptions. Numerous improvements over earlier studies included reliance on BLS data for government workers and ten specific cancer sites rather than only one broad cancer category. Findings The number of fatal and nonfatal injuries in 2007 was estimated to be more than 5,600 and almost 8,559,000, respectively, at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion. The number of fatal and nonfatal illnesses was estimated at more than 53,000 and nearly 427,000, respectively, with cost estimates of $46 billion and $12 billion. For injuries and diseases combined, medical cost estimates were $67 billion (27% of the total), and indirect costs were almost $183 billion (73%). Injuries comprised 77 percent of the total, and diseases accounted for 23 percent. The total estimated costs were approximately $250 billion, compared with the inflation-adjusted cost of $217 billion for 1992. Conclusions The medical and indirect costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are sizable, at least as large as the cost of cancer. Workers’ compensation covers less than 25 percent of these costs, so all members of society share the burden. The contributions of job-related injuries and illnesses to the overall cost of medical care and ill health are greater than generally assumed. PMID:22188353

Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

2017-06-01

A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

Summary and evaluation of hydraulic property data available for the Hanford Site upper basalt confined aquifer system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spane, F.A. Jr.; Vermeul, V.R.

Pacific Northwest Laboratory, as part of the Hanford Site Ground-Water Surveillance Project, examines the potential for offsite migration of contamination within the upper basalt confined aquifer system. For the past 40 years, hydrologic testing of the upper basalt confined aquifer has been conducted by a number of Hanford Site programs. Hydraulic property estimates are important for evaluating aquifer flow characteristics (i.e., ground-water flow patterns, flow velocity, transport travel time). Presented are the first comprehensive Hanford Site-wide summary of hydraulic properties for the upper basalt confined aquifer system (i.e., the upper Saddle Mountains Basalt). Available hydrologic test data were reevaluated usingmore » recently developed diagnostic test analysis methods. A comparison of calculated transmissivity estimates indicates that, for most test results, a general correspondence within a factor of two between reanalysis and previously reported test values was obtained. For a majority of the tests, previously reported values are greater than reanalysis estimates. This overestimation is attributed to a number of factors, including, in many cases, a misapplication of nonleaky confined aquifer analysis methods in previous analysis reports to tests that exhibit leaky confined aquifer response behavior. Results of the test analyses indicate a similar range for transmissivity values for the various hydro-geologic units making up the upper basalt confined aquifer. Approximately 90% of the calculated transmissivity values for upper basalt confined aquifer hydrogeologic units occur within the range of 10{sup 0} to 10{sup 2} m{sup 2}/d, with 65% of the calculated estimate values occurring between 10{sup 1} to 10{sup 2} m{sup 2}d. These summary findings are consistent with the general range of values previously reported for basalt interflow contact zones and sedimentary interbeds within the Saddle Mountains Basalt.« less

Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach.

PubMed

McConnachie, Matthew M; Romero, Claudia; Ferraro, Paul J; van Wilgen, Brian W

2016-04-01

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point-estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Testing the Wisconsin Phosphorus Index with year-round, field-scale runoff monitoring.

PubMed

Good, Laura W; Vadas, Peter; Panuska, John C; Bonilla, Carlos A; Jokela, William E

2012-01-01

The Wisconsin Phosphorus Index (WPI) is one of several P indices in the United States that use equations to describe actual P loss processes. Although for nutrient management planning the WPI is reported as a dimensionless whole number, it is calculated as average annual dissolved P (DP) and particulate P (PP) mass delivered per unit area. The WPI calculations use soil P concentration, applied manure and fertilizer P, and estimates of average annual erosion and average annual runoff. We compared WPI estimated P losses to annual P loads measured in surface runoff from 86 field-years on crop fields and pastures. As the erosion and runoff generated by the weather in the monitoring years varied substantially from the average annual estimates used in the WPI, the WPI and measured loads were not well correlated. However, when measured runoff and erosion were used in the WPI field loss calculations, the WPI accurately estimated annual total P loads with a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) of 0.87. The DP loss estimates were not as close to measured values (NSE = 0.40) as the PP loss estimates (NSE = 0.89). Some errors in estimating DP losses may be unavoidable due to uncertainties in estimating on-farm manure P application rates. The WPI is sensitive to field management that affects its erosion and runoff estimates. Provided that the WPI methods for estimating average annual erosion and runoff are accurately reflecting the effects of management, the WPI is an accurate field-level assessment tool for managing runoff P losses. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Child mortality estimation 2013: an overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

PubMed

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

PubMed Central

Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

2014-01-01

Background In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues. PMID:25013954

Estimation method for serial dilution experiments.

PubMed

Ben-David, Avishai; Davidson, Charles E

2014-12-01

Titration of microorganisms in infectious or environmental samples is a corner stone of quantitative microbiology. A simple method is presented to estimate the microbial counts obtained with the serial dilution technique for microorganisms that can grow on bacteriological media and develop into a colony. The number (concentration) of viable microbial organisms is estimated from a single dilution plate (assay) without a need for replicate plates. Our method selects the best agar plate with which to estimate the microbial counts, and takes into account the colony size and plate area that both contribute to the likelihood of miscounting the number of colonies on a plate. The estimate of the optimal count given by our method can be used to narrow the search for the best (optimal) dilution plate and saves time. The required inputs are the plate size, the microbial colony size, and the serial dilution factors. The proposed approach shows relative accuracy well within ±0.1log10 from data produced by computer simulations. The method maintains this accuracy even in the presence of dilution errors of up to 10% (for both the aliquot and diluent volumes), microbial counts between 10(4) and 10(12) colony-forming units, dilution ratios from 2 to 100, and plate size to colony size ratios between 6.25 to 200. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Power system observability and dynamic state estimation for stability monitoring using synchrophasor measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Kai; Qi, Junjian; Kang, Wei

2016-08-01

Growing penetration of intermittent resources such as renewable generations increases the risk of instability in a power grid. This paper introduces the concept of observability and its computational algorithms for a power grid monitored by the wide-area measurement system (WAMS) based on synchrophasors, e.g. phasor measurement units (PMUs). The goal is to estimate real-time states of generators, especially for potentially unstable trajectories, the information that is critical for the detection of rotor angle instability of the grid. The paper studies the number and siting of synchrophasors in a power grid so that the state of the system can be accuratelymore » estimated in the presence of instability. An unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is adopted as a tool to estimate the dynamic states that are not directly measured by synchrophasors. The theory and its computational algorithms are illustrated in detail by using a 9-bus 3-generator power system model and then tested on a 140-bus 48-generator Northeast Power Coordinating Council power grid model. Case studies on those two systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach using a limited number of synchrophasors for dynamic state estimation for stability assessment and its robustness against moderate inaccuracies in model parameters.« less

A student nurse experience of an intervention that addresses the perioperative nursing shortage.

PubMed

Monahan, J Carter

2015-11-01

Registered nurses are the largest group of professionals in the global healthcare system. The number of nurses is estimated to be 19.3 million throughout the world (Flinkman et al 2013). In the United States the need for registered nurses is growing. It has been predicted that 260,000 positions for registered nurses will remain unfilled by the year 2025 (Harris et al 2014) with a shortage of registered nurses projected to spread across the United States between 2009 and 2030 (Juraschek et al 2012). Compounding the projected nursing shortage is the increased attrition rate, which is as high as 61% within the first year (Pine & Tart 2007). There are several reasons for this shortage including supply and demand issues, projected changes to healthcare and the aging population. Additionally, the number of college graduates who have majored in nursing has not met the demand (Dunn 2014).

Estimation of the neural drive to the muscle from surface electromyograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, David

Muscle force is highly correlated with the standard deviation of the surface electromyogram (sEMG) produced by the active muscle. Correctly estimating this quantity of non-stationary sEMG and understanding its relation to neural drive and muscle force is of paramount importance. The single constituents of the sEMG are called motor unit action potentials whose biphasic amplitude can interfere (named amplitude cancellation), potentially affecting the standard deviation (Keenan etal. 2005). However, when certain conditions are met the Campbell-Hardy theorem suggests that amplitude cancellation does not affect the standard deviation. By simulation of the sEMG, we verify the applicability of this theorem to myoelectric signals and investigate deviations from its conditions to obtain a more realistic setting. We find no difference in estimated standard deviation with and without interference, standing in stark contrast to previous results (Keenan etal. 2008, Farina etal. 2010). Furthermore, since the theorem provides us with the functional relationship between standard deviation and neural drive we conclude that complex methods based on high density electrode arrays and blind source separation might not bear substantial advantages for neural drive estimation (Farina and Holobar 2016). Funded by NIH Grant Number 1 R01 EB022872 and NSF Grant Number 1208126.

A multi-agency nutrient dataset used to estimate loads, improve monitoring design, and calibrate regional nutrient SPARROW models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, David A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Robertson, Dale M.; Booth, Nathaniel

2011-01-01

Stream-loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long-term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water-quality model, the flow-bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water-quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.

Effect of study design and setting on tuberculosis clustering estimates using Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR): a systematic review.

PubMed

Mears, Jessica; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Cohen, Theodore; McHugh, Timothy D; Sonnenberg, Pam

2015-01-21

To systematically review the evidence for the impact of study design and setting on the interpretation of tuberculosis (TB) transmission using clustering derived from Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) strain typing. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for articles published before 21st October 2014. Studies in humans that reported the proportion of clustering of TB isolates by MIRU-VNTR were included in the analysis. Univariable meta-regression analyses were conducted to assess the influence of study design and setting on the proportion of clustering. The search identified 27 eligible articles reporting clustering between 0% and 63%. The number of MIRU-VNTR loci typed, requiring consent to type patient isolates (as a proxy for sampling fraction), the TB incidence and the maximum cluster size explained 14%, 14%, 27% and 48% of between-study variation, respectively, and had a significant association with the proportion of clustering. Although MIRU-VNTR typing is being adopted worldwide there is a paucity of data on how study design and setting may influence estimates of clustering. We have highlighted study design variables for consideration in the design and interpretation of future studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

An examination of pharmacists' labor supply and wages.

PubMed

Polgreen, Linnea A; Mott, David A; Doucette, William R

2011-12-01

For the last decade, there has been a shortage of pharmacists for most of the United States. This shortage is in part because of demand-side phenomena (eg, increasing prescription drug use, increases in the complexity of drug regimens, and an aging population). However, there also may be supply-side causes. Although the number of pharmacy school graduates has increased, most graduates are women, many of whom may choose to work part-time. Because of the change in sex composition of the workforce, some researchers conclude that pharmacist shortages will be even more critical in the future. The goals of this article are to model pharmacists' decisions to work, estimate pharmacists' wages, and identify influences on the number of hours worked by pharmacists in the United States. Pharmacist labor supply is examined using a static, 3-step, empirical labor supply model that estimates the decision to work, hourly wages, and number of hours worked for U.S. pharmacists. Pharmacists have high starting wages but flat wage trajectories. Although many pharmacists are working part-time, this is true for women and men. Income effects do not dominate substitution effects, even at the high level of compensation found here. Results indicate that previous predictions brought about by the changing sex composition of the pharmacist labor force might not come to pass, and additional pharmacists may be attracted to the profession by higher wages and flexible schedules. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Transparent Antimicrobial Dressing for Managing Central Venous and Arterial Catheters in Intensive Care Units

PubMed Central

Bernatchez, Stéphanie F.; Ruckly, Stéphane; Timsit, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Objective To model the cost-effectiveness impact of routine use of an antimicrobial chlorhexidine gluconate-containing securement dressing compared to non-antimicrobial transparent dressings for the protection of central vascular lines in intensive care unit patients. Design This study uses a novel health economic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of using the chlorhexidine gluconate dressing versus transparent dressings in a French intensive care unit scenario. The 30-day time non-homogeneous markovian model comprises eight health states. The probabilities of events derive from a multicentre (12 French intensive care units) randomized controlled trial. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000 patients per dressing strategy are used for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and 95% confidence intervals calculations. The outcome is the number of catheter-related bloodstream infections avoided. Costs of intensive care unit stay are based on a recent French multicentre study and the cost-effectiveness criterion is the cost per catheter-related bloodstream infections avoided. The incremental net monetary benefit per patient is also estimated. Patients 1000 patients per group simulated based on the source randomized controlled trial involving 1,879 adults expected to require intravascular catheterization for 48 hours. Intervention Chlorhexidine Gluconate-containing securement dressing compared to non-antimicrobial transparent dressings. Results The chlorhexidine gluconate dressing prevents 11.8 infections /1,000 patients (95% confidence interval: [3.85; 19.64]) with a number needed to treat of 85 patients. The mean cost difference per patient of €141 is not statistically significant (95% confidence interval: [€-975; €1,258]). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is of €12,046 per catheter-related bloodstream infection prevented, and the incremental net monetary benefit per patient is of €344.88. Conclusions According to the base case scenario, the chlorhexidine gluconate dressing is more cost-effective than the reference dressing. Trial Registration This model is based on the data from the RCT registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01189682). PMID:26086783

Ecological evaluation of the abundance and effects of elk herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 1994-1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Francis J.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.

2002-01-01

Several National Park Service units in the Intermountain region possess a number of closely related management needs relative to the abundance of wild ungulates and their herbivory effects on plants and ecosystem processes. In 1993, the then National Biological Service (NBS) - now U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Discipline (USGS, BRD)­ initiated a series of research studies in four park units in the Intermountain West., into the abundance and effects of ungulates on park ecosystems. Each of these parks received a number of similar research study elements including: (a) a number of new ungulate grazing exclosures (n = 12-21 exclosures per park); (b) aerial survey sightability models to estimate population sizes of ungulates; (e) measures of biomass production and consumption rates near the exclosures and across the landscape; (d) studies of the effects of the grazing on plant abundance, species diversity, and ecosystem effects; and (e) computer model simulations (SAVANNA) of the effects on the ecosystem and plant resources of different ungulate management scenarios. One park unit, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, received funding from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, BRD) and parallel funding from NPS for an intensive research study of the effects of elk on the park ecosystems.

Alert status of nuclear weapons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristensen, Hans M.

2017-11-01

Nuclear Alert Forces. Four nuclear-armed states deploy nuclear warheads on alert, ready to be used on relatively short notice: United States, Russia, France and Britain. Combined, the four countries deploy an estimated 1,869 nuclear alert warheads. Russia and the United States deploy 1,749 alert warheads combined, or 94% of all alert warheads. Despite some debate about possible need to increase readiness of nuclear forces (China, Pakistan), the five other nuclear-armed states (China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea) are thought to store their warheads separate from launchers under normal circumstances. The overall number of alert warheads has remained relatively stable during the past five years.

Preliminary development of digital signal processing in microwave radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, W. D.

1980-01-01

Topics covered involve a number of closely related tasks including: the development of several control loop and dynamic noise model computer programs for simulating microwave radiometer measurements; computer modeling of an existing stepped frequency radiometer in an effort to determine its optimum operational characteristics; investigation of the classical second order analog control loop to determine its ability to reduce the estimation error in a microwave radiometer; investigation of several digital signal processing unit designs; initiation of efforts to develop required hardware and software for implementation of the digital signal processing unit; and investigation of the general characteristics and peculiarities of digital processing noiselike microwave radiometer signals.

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2013-01-01

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes. 

Use of satellite telemetry for study of a gyrfalcon in Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klugman, S.S.; Fuller, M.R.; Howey, P.W.; Yates, M.A.; Oar, J.J.; Seegar, J.M.; Seegar, W.S.; Mattox, G.M.; Maechtle, T.L.

1993-01-01

Long-term research in Greenland has yielded 1 8 years of incidental sightings and 2 years of surveys and observations of gyrfalcons(Falco rusticolus) around Sondrestromfjord, Greenland. Gyrfalcons nest on cliffs along fjords and near rivers and lakes throughout our 2590 sq. km study area. Nestlings are present mid-June to July. In 1990, we marked one adult female gyrfalcon with a 65 g radio-transmitter to obtain location estimates via the ARGOS polar orbiting satellite system. The unit transmitted 8 hours/day every two days. We obtained 145 locations during 5 weeks of the nestling and fledgling stage of breeding. We collected 1-9 locations/day, with a mean of 4/day. We calculated home range estimates based on the Minimum Convex Polygon( MCP) and Harmonic Mean (HM methods and tested subsets of the data based on location quality and number of transmission hours per day. Home range estimated by MCP using higher quality locations was approximately 589 sq. km. Home range estimates were larger when lower-quality locations were included in the estimates. Estimates based on data collected for 4 hours/day were similar to those for 8 hours/day. In the future, it might be possible to extend battery life of the transmitters by reducing the number of transmission hours/day. A longer-lived transmitter could provide information on movements and home ranges throughout the year.

Comparison of constitutive flow resistance equations based on the Manning and Chezy equations applied to natural rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Dingman, S. Lawrence; Bolster, Carl H.

2005-01-01

A set of conceptually derived in‐bank river discharge–estimating equations (models), based on the Manning and Chezy equations, are calibrated and validated using a database of 1037 discharge measurements in 103 rivers in the United States and New Zealand. The models are compared to a multiple regression model derived from the same data. The comparison demonstrates that in natural rivers, using an exponent on the slope variable of 0.33 rather than the traditional value of 0.5 reduces the variance associated with estimating flow resistance. Mean model uncertainty, assuming a constant value for the conductance coefficient, is less than 5% for a large number of estimates, and 67% of the estimates would be accurate within 50%. The models have potential application where site‐specific flow resistance information is not available and can be the basis for (1) a general approach to estimating discharge from remotely sensed hydraulic data, (2) comparison to slope‐area discharge estimates, and (3) large‐scale river modeling.

Consumer estimation of recommended and actual calories at fast food restaurants.

PubMed

Elbel, Brian

2011-10-01

Recently, localities across the United States have passed laws requiring the mandatory labeling of calories in all chain restaurants, including fast food restaurants. This policy is set to be implemented at the federal level. Early studies have found these policies to be at best minimally effective in altering food choice at a population level. This paper uses receipt and survey data collected from consumers outside fast food restaurants in low-income communities in New York City (NYC) (which implemented labeling) and a comparison community (which did not) to examine two fundamental assumptions necessary (though not sufficient) for calorie labeling to be effective: that consumers know how many calories they should be eating throughout the course of a day and that currently customers improperly estimate the number of calories in their fast food order. Then, we examine whether mandatory menu labeling influences either of these assumptions. We find that approximately one-third of consumers properly estimate that the number of calories an adult should consume daily. Few (8% on average) believe adults should be eating over 2,500 calories daily, and approximately one-third believe adults should eat lesser than 1,500 calories daily. Mandatory labeling in NYC did not change these findings. However, labeling did increase the number of low-income consumers who correctly estimated (within 100 calories) the number of calories in their fast food meal, from 15% before labeling in NYC increasing to 24% after labeling. Overall knowledge remains low even with labeling. Additional public policies likely need to be considered to influence obesity on a large scale.

Consumer Estimation of Recommended and Actual Calories at Fast Food Restaurants

PubMed Central

Elbel, Brian

2013-01-01

Recently, localities across the United States have passed laws requiring the mandatory labeling of calories in all chain restaurants, including fast food restaurants. This policy is set to be implemented at the federal level. Early studies have found these policies to be at best minimally effective in altering food choice at a population level. This paper uses receipt and survey data collected from consumers outside fast food restaurants in low-income communities in New York City (NYC) (which implemented labeling) and a comparison community (which did not) to examine two fundamental assumptions necessary (though not sufficient) for calorie labeling to be effective: that consumers know how many calories they should be eating throughout the course of a day and that currently customers improperly estimate the number of calories in their fast food order. Then, we examine whether mandatory menu labeling influences either of these assumptions. We find that approximately one-third of consumers properly estimate that the number of calories an adult should consume daily. Few (8% on average) believe adults should be eating over 2,500 calories daily, and approximately one-third believe adults should eat lesser than 1,500 calories daily. Mandatory labeling in NYC did not change these findings. However, labeling did increase the number of low-income consumers who correctly estimated (within 100 calories) the number of calories in their fast food meal, from 15% before labeling in NYC increasing to 24% after labeling. Overall knowledge remains low even with labeling. Additional public policies likely need to be considered to influence obesity on a large scale. PMID:21779085

Economic costs of the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001.

PubMed

Thompson, D; Muriel, P; Russell, D; Osborne, P; Bromley, A; Rowland, M; Creigh-Tyte, S; Brown, C

2002-12-01

The authors present estimates of the economic costs to agriculture and industries affected by tourism of the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2001. The losses to agriculture and the food chain amount to about Pound Sterling3.1 billion. The majority of the costs to agriculture have been met by the Government through compensation for slaughter and disposal as well as clean-up costs. Nonetheless, agricultural producers will have suffered losses, estimated at Pound Sterling355 million, which represents about 20% of the estimated total income from farming in 2001. Based on data from surveys of tourism, businesses directly affected by tourist expenditure are estimated to have lost a similar total amount (between Pound Sterling2.7 and Pound Sterling3.2 billion) as a result of reduced numbers of people visiting the countryside. The industries which supply agriculture, the food industries and tourist-related businesses will also have suffered losses. However, the overall costs to the UK economy are substantially less than the sum of these components, as much of the expenditure by tourists was not lost, but merely displaced to other sectors of the economy. Overall, the net effect of FMD is estimated to have reduced the gross domestic product in the UK by less than 0.2% in 2001.

Repeater F-waves are signs of motor unit pathology in polio survivors.

PubMed

Hachisuka, Akiko; Komori, Tetsuo; Abe, Tatsuya; Hachisuka, Kenji

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether F-waves reveal electrophysiological features of anterior horn cells in polio survivors. Forty-three polio survivors and 20 healthy controls underwent motor nerve conduction studies of the median and tibial nerves bilaterally, including sampling of F-waves elicited by 100 stimuli and the determination of motor unit number estimation (MUNE). A significant increase in abnormally stereotyped ("repeater") F-waves and a reduction of F-wave persistence were observed in both nerves in the polio group as compared with the control group. Repeater F-waves had a negative correlation with MUNE. These trends in F-wave persistence and repeater F-waves after motor unit loss are characteristic findings in polio survivors. Repeater F-waves are a sign of motor unit pathology. © 2014 The Authors. Muscle & Nerve Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

CDO budgeting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesladek, Pavel; Wiswesser, Andreas; Sass, Björn; Mauermann, Sebastian

2008-04-01

The Critical dimension off-target (CDO) is a key parameter for mask house customer, affecting directly the performance of the mask. The CDO is the difference between the feature size target and the measured feature size. The change of CD during the process is either compensated within the process or by data correction. These compensation methods are commonly called process bias and data bias, respectively. The difference between data bias and process bias in manufacturing results in systematic CDO error, however, this systematic error does not take into account the instability of the process bias. This instability is a result of minor variations - instabilities of manufacturing processes and changes in materials and/or logistics. Using several masks the CDO of the manufacturing line can be estimated. For systematic investigation of the unit process contribution to CDO and analysis of the factors influencing the CDO contributors, a solid understanding of each unit process and huge number of masks is necessary. Rough identification of contributing processes and splitting of the final CDO variation between processes can be done with approx. 50 masks with identical design, material and process. Such amount of data allows us to identify the main contributors and estimate the effect of them by means of Analysis of variance (ANOVA) combined with multivariate analysis. The analysis does not provide information about the root cause of the variation within the particular unit process, however, it provides a good estimate of the impact of the process on the stability of the manufacturing line. Additionally this analysis can be used to identify possible interaction between processes, which cannot be investigated if only single processes are considered. Goal of this work is to evaluate limits for CDO budgeting models given by the precision and the number of measurements as well as partitioning the variation within the manufacturing process. The CDO variation splits according to the suggested model into contributions from particular processes or process groups. Last but not least the power of this method to determine the absolute strength of each parameter will be demonstrated. Identification of the root cause of this variation within the unit process itself is not scope of this work.

Mathematical estimation of the level of microbial contamination on spacecraft surfaces by volumetric air sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oxborrow, G. S.; Roark, A. L.; Fields, N. D.; Puleo, J. R.

1974-01-01

Microbiological sampling methods presently used for enumeration of microorganisms on spacecraft surfaces require contact with easily damaged components. Estimation of viable particles on surfaces using air sampling methods in conjunction with a mathematical model would be desirable. Parameters necessary for the mathematical model are the effect of angled surfaces on viable particle collection and the number of viable cells per viable particle. Deposition of viable particles on angled surfaces closely followed a cosine function, and the number of viable cells per viable particle was consistent with a Poisson distribution. Other parameters considered by the mathematical model included deposition rate and fractional removal per unit time. A close nonlinear correlation between volumetric air sampling and airborne fallout on surfaces was established with all fallout data points falling within the 95% confidence limits as determined by the mathematical model.

Genetic analysis of scats reveals minimum number and sex of recently documented mountain lions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naidu, Ashwin; Smythe, Lindsay A.; Thompson, Ron W.; Culver, Melanie

2011-01-01

Recent records of mountain lions Puma concolor and concurrent declines in desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis mexicana on Kofa National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, United States, have prompted investigations to estimate the number of mountain lions occurring there. We performed noninvasive genetic analyses and identified species, individuals, and sex from scat samples collected from the Kofa and Castle Dome Mountains. From 105 scats collected, we identified a minimum of 11 individual mountain lions. These individuals consisted of six males, two females and three of unknown sex. Three of the 11 mountain lions were identified multiple times over the study period. These estimates supplement previously recorded information on mountain lions in an area where they were historically considered only transient. We demonstrate that noninvasive genetic techniques, especially when used in conjunction with camera-trap and radiocollaring methods, can provide additional and reliable information to wildlife managers, particularly on secretive species like the mountain lion.

Linking crime guns: the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit.

PubMed

Braga, Anthony A; Pierce, Glenn L

2004-07-01

Ballistics imaging technology has received national attention as a potent tool for moving the law enforcement response to violent gun criminals forward by linking multiple crime scenes to one firearm. This study examines the impact of ballistics imaging technology on the productivity of the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Using negative binomial regression models to analyze times series data on ballistics matches, we find that ballistics imaging technology was associated with a more than sixfold increase in the monthly number of ballistics matches made by the Boston Police Department's Ballistics Unit. Cost-effectiveness estimates and qualitative evidence also suggest that ballistics imaging technology allows law enforcement agencies to make hits that would not have been possible using traditional ballistics methods.

Economic burden of seasonal influenza in the United States.

PubMed

Putri, Wayan C W S; Muscatello, David J; Stockwell, Melissa S; Newall, Anthony T

2018-05-22

Seasonal influenza is responsible for a large disease and economic burden. Despite the expanding recommendation of influenza vaccination, influenza has continued to be a major public health concern in the United States (U.S.). To evaluate influenza prevention strategies it is important that policy makers have current estimates of the economic burden of influenza. To provide an updated estimate of the average annual economic burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S. population in the presence of vaccination efforts. We evaluated estimates of age-specific influenza-attributable outcomes (ill-non medically attended, office-based outpatient visit, emergency department visits, hospitalizations and death) and associated productivity loss. Health outcome rates were applied to the 2015 U.S. population and multiplied by the relevant estimated unit costs for each outcome. We evaluated both direct healthcare costs and indirect costs (absenteeism from paid employment) reporting results from both a healthcare system and societal perspective. Results were presented in five age groups (<5 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years and ≥65 years of age). The estimated average annual total economic burden of influenza to the healthcare system and society was $11.2 billion ($6.3-$25.3 billion). Direct medical costs were estimated to be $3.2 billion ($1.5-$11.7 billion) and indirect costs $8.0 billion ($4.8-$13.6 billion). These total costs were based on the estimated average numbers of (1) ill-non medically attended patients (21.6 million), (2) office-based outpatient visits (3.7 million), (3) emergency department visit (0.65 million) (4) hospitalizations (247.0 thousand), (5) deaths (36.3 thousand) and (6) days of productivity lost (20.1 million). This study provides an updated estimate of the total economic burden of influenza in the U.S. Although we found a lower total cost than previously estimated, our results confirm that influenza is responsible for a substantial economic burden in the U.S. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

More on the Demand for Medical Education, with Special Attention to the Effects of Nonprice Rationing. Discussion Paper No. 79-23.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stapleton, David C.

A model in which nonprice rationing has two effects on the number of medical school applicants in the United States is specified and estimated for the 1951-76 period. The results indicate that low acceptance rates discourage many potential applicants and that a fairly large and constant percentage of rejected applicants can be expected to reapply.…

Updating the Inductee Delivery Schedule.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

deployed forces at risk with the anticipated opposing forces for the expected level of combat intensity. An estimate of the number of individuals who...identification of shortfalls in critical skills. It prescribes the anticipation of requirements and return of personnel resources to military control as...with the Time Phased Force Deployment Data lists the forces that will be deployed over time. Each unit is then assigned to a risk group (forces

Linking the Revised National Standards to Teaching Games for Understanding: An Eighth-Grade Soccer Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parkes, Craig; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

2015-01-01

In the United States it is estimated that over 3 million children and young people currently participate in youth soccer programs. This number has the potential to increase following a surge of interest in the U.S. Men's National Team World Cup performance in Brazil in 2014, and the U.S. Women's National Team World Cup win in Canada in 2015. This…

Fish Habitat and Fish Populations in a Southern Appalachian Watershed before and after Hurricane Hugo

Treesearch

C. Andrew Dolloff; Patricia A. Flebbe; Michael D. Owen

1994-01-01

Habitat features and relative abundance of all fish species were estimated in 8.4 km of a small mountain stream system before and 11 months after Hurricane Hugo crossed the southern Appalachians in September 1989. There was no change in the total amount (area) of each habitat type but the total number of habitat units decreased and average size and depth of habitat...

United States Population Estimates and Components of Change: 1970 to 1986.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Louisa

1987-01-01

On January 1, 1987, the total population including Armed Forces overseas approached 243 million, having increased by 2.2 million or 0.9 percent since January 1, 1986 and 15.7 million since the April 1, 1980 census. The number of births per 1,000 population dropped slightly from 15.7 in 1985 to 15.3 in 1986. The 3.7 million births in 1986 were the…

Methods of Reading Information on Labels of Prescription Medications by Persons Who Are Visually Impaired

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMahon, John M.; Curtis, Amy

2009-01-01

The prevalence of visual impairment (that is, blindness and low vision) is increasing in the United States, especially in persons aged 65 and older, with more than half of all people who are blind in this age demographic. It has been estimated that about 6.5 million Americans aged 55 and older report vision loss, and this number is expected to…

Preparing Staff To Serve Patrons with Disabilities. A How-To-Do-It Manual. How-To-Do-It Manuals for Librarians, Number 57.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deines-Jones, Courtney; Van Fleet, Connie

It is estimated that one in every five people in the United States has problems performing daily activities without help, perhaps due to the aging of the population and to more and more children surviving severe birth defects. The importance of library services to the disabled cannot be overestimated; they have the same information needs as any…

Involved, Invisible, Ignored: The Experiences of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Parents and Their Children in Our Nation's K-12 Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosciw, Joseph G.; Diaz, Elizabeth M.

2008-01-01

Current estimates indicate that there are more than 7 million lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) parents with school-age children in the United States, yet little is known about the experiences of this growing number of LGBT-headed families in schools across the country. In order to fill this crucial gap in our knowledge of LGBT issues…

Diagnosed Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Learning Disability: United States, 2004-2006. Data from the National Health Interview Survey. Vital and Health Statistics. Series 10, Number 237

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pastor, Patricia N.; Reuben, Cynthia A.

2008-01-01

Objectives: This report presents national estimates of the prevalence of diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and learning disability (LD) in U.S. children 6-17 years of age and describes the prevalence of these conditions for children with selected characteristics. The use of educational and health care services and the…

Studies in Income Distribution. Estimation of Social Security Taxes on the March Current Population Survey. No. 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridges, Benjamin, Jr.; Johnston, Mary P.

The impact of the tax-transfer system on the distribution of income among economic units is the subject of a number of studies by the Office of Research and Statistics of the Social Security Administration. One of the most important data sources for the work is the Census Bureau's March Current Population Survey (CPS). To conduct such studies, the…

Characteristics of Adults Who Used Mindfulness Meditation: United States, 2012.

PubMed

Morone, Natalia E; Moore, Charity G; Greco, Carol M

2017-07-01

To describe estimates of the number and characteristics of persons who had used mindfulness meditation in the U.S. Data from 108,131 adults from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey were weighted to produce national estimates representative of the U.S. Persons who used mindfulness meditation were identified by their response to the question "During the past 12 months, did you use mindfulness meditation?" An estimated 2,029,720 adults had used mindfulness meditation. Compared with those who did not meditate, more meditators endorsed moderate exercise (79.6% vs. 54.8%; p < 0.0001). More meditators had low-back and neck pain and headache (36.7% vs. 28.9 [p = 0.0002]; 26.4% vs. 14.7% [p<0.0001]; 19.1% vs. 12.1% [p<0.0001], respectively). More meditators reported being nervous or feeling sad at least a little of the time (60.4% vs. 37.8% and 34% vs. 23.5%, respectively; p<0.0001) and being frequently stressed (56.4% vs. 29.0%; p<0.0001). Mindfulness meditation was used by an estimated 2,029,720 adults in the United States in 2012. More meditators than nonmeditators reported more pain and reported feeling nervous or sad and being stressed, suggesting a reason for using mindfulness meditation.

Colonial Era Impoundment of the Northeastern United States: Beaver Trapping and Low- head Dam Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salant, N.; Bain, D.; Brandt, S.

2008-12-01

Hydrologic systems of the northeastern United States were transformed by European settler activities. The colonial economy shifted engineered water structures from beaver dams to human dams built for power generation. While the geomorphic effects of human-constructed dams have recently garnered considerable attention, few studies have investigated how intensive trapping for the fur trade, the near extermination of the Northeast beaver population, and the consequent loss of beaver ponds altered the regional water balance. Although reconstructions of colonial beaver populations have been made, none link the decline in beavers to its hydrologic impact. Beaver population models based on pre-colonial population estimates, historic harvest rates, and current-day population dynamics were used to simulate the corresponding decrease in pond numbers over time. Beaver populations declined dramatically during the seventeenth century, with harvest rates estimated at 2,000-10,000 beavers per year, resulting in expatriation in some sub-regions by the early 1700s. Using contemporary estimates of beaver pond volumes, the calculated loss in pond storage between 1600 and 1840 was approximately 17 million cubic meters of water and sediment, considerably larger than estimated storage gains from dam construction in the same period, suggesting that beaver eradication was a major driver of hydrologic change during the colonial era.

Burden of norovirus gastroenteritis in the ambulatory setting--United States, 2001-2009.

PubMed

Gastañaduy, Paul A; Hall, Aron J; Curns, Aaron T; Parashar, Umesh D; Lopman, Benjamin A

2013-04-01

Gastroenteritis remains an important cause of morbidity in the United States. The burden of norovirus gastroenteritis in ambulatory US patients is not well understood. Cause-specified and cause-unspecified gastroenteritis emergency department (ED) and outpatient visits during July 2001-June 2009 were extracted from MarketScan insurance claim databases. By using cause-specified encounters, time-series regression models were fitted to predict the number of unspecified gastroenteritis visits due to specific pathogens other than norovirus. Model residuals were used to estimate norovirus visits. MarketScan rates were extrapolated to the US population to estimate national ambulatory visits. During 2001-2009, the estimated annual mean rates of norovirus-associated ED and outpatient visits were 14 and 57 cases per 10 000 persons, respectively, across all ages. Rates for ages 0-4, 5-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years were 38, 10, 12, and 15 ED visits per 10 000 persons, respectively, and 233, 85, 35, and 54 outpatient visits per 10 000 persons, respectively. Norovirus was estimated to cause 13% of all gastroenteritis-associated ambulatory visits, with ~50% of such visits occurring during November-February. Nationally, norovirus contributed to approximately 400 000 ED visits and 1.7 million office visits annually, resulting in $284 million in healthcare charges. Norovirus is a substantial cause of gastroenteritis in the ambulatory setting.

Discrepancies and Uncertainties in Bottom-up Gridded Inventories of Livestock Methane Emissions for the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; Hristov, A. N.; Harper, M.; Meinen, R.; Day, R.; Lopes, J.; Ott, T.; Venkatesh, A.

2017-12-01

In this analysis we used a spatially-explicit, bottom-up approach, based on animal inventories, feed intake, and feed intake-based emission factors to estimate county-level enteric (cattle) and manure (cattle, swine, and poultry) livestock methane emissions for the contiguous United States. Combined enteric and manure emissions were highest for counties in California's Central Valley. Overall, this analysis yielded total livestock methane emissions (8,916 Gg/yr; lower and upper bounds of 6,423 and 11,840 Gg/yr, respectively) for 2012 that are comparable to the current USEPA estimates for 2012 (9,295 Gg/yr) and to estimates from the global gridded Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory (8,728 Gg/yr), used previously in a number of top-down studies. However, the spatial distribution of emissions developed in this analysis differed significantly from that of EDGAR. As an example, methane emissions from livestock in Texas and California (highest contributors to the national total) in this study were 36% lesser and 100% greater, respectively, than estimates by EDGAR. Thespatial distribution of emissions in gridded inventories (e.g., EDGAR) likely strongly impacts the conclusions of top-down approaches that use them, especially in the source attribution of resulting (posterior) emissions, and hence conclusions from such studies should be interpreted with caution.

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE PAGES

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; ...

2018-01-05

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

2018-02-01

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Burden of medically attended influenza infection and cases averted by vaccination — United States, 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons

PubMed Central

Jackson, Michael L.; Phillips, C. Hallie; Benoit, Joyce; Jackson, Lisa A.; Gaglani, Manjusha; Murthy, Kempapura; McLean, Huong Q.; Belongia, Edward A.; Malosh, Ryan; Zimmerman, Richard; Flannery, Brendan

2018-01-01

Background In addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, influenza vaccination programs can reduce the burden of outpatient visits for influenza. We estimated the incidence of medically-attended influenza at three geographically diverse sites in the United States, and the cases averted by vaccination, for the 2013/14 through 2015/16 influenza seasons. Methods We defined surveillance populations at three sites from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network. Among these populations, we identified outpatient visits laboratory-confirmed influenza via active surveillance, and identified all outpatient visits for acute respiratory illness from healthcare databases. We extrapolated the total number of outpatient visits for influenza from the proportion of surveillance visits with a positive influenza test. We combined estimates of incidence, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness to estimate outpatient visits averted by vaccination. Results Across the three sites and seasons, incidence of medically attended influenza ranged from 14 to 54 per 1,000 population. Incidence was highest in children aged 6 months to 9 years (33 to 70 per 1,000) and lowest in adults aged 18-49 years (21 to 27 per 1,000). Cases averted ranged from 9 per 1,000 vaccinees (Washington, 2014/15) to 28 per 1,000 (Wisconsin, 2013/14). Discussion Seasonal influenza epidemics cause a considerable burden of outpatient medical visits. The United States influenza vaccination program has caused meaningful reductions in outpatient visits for influenza, even in years when the vaccine is not well-matched to the dominant circulating influenza strain. PMID:29249545

Estimating disease burden of a potential A(H7N9) pandemic influenza outbreak in the United States.

PubMed

Silva, Walter; Das, Tapas K; Izurieta, Ricardo

2017-11-25

Since spring 2013, periodic emergence of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China has heightened the concern for a possible pandemic outbreak among humans, though it is believed that the virus is not yet human-to-human transmittable. Till June 2017, A(H7N9) has resulted in 1533 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infections causing 592 deaths. The aim of this paper is to present disease burden estimates (measured by infection attack rates (IAR) and number of deaths) in the event of a possible pandemic outbreak caused by human-to-human transmission capability acquired by A(H7N9) virus. Even though such a pandemic will likely spread worldwide, our focus in this paper is to estimate the impact on the United States alone. The method first uses a data clustering technique to divide 50 states in the U.S. into a small number of clusters. Thereafter, for a few selected states in each cluster, the method employs an agent-based (AB) model to simulate human A(H7N9) influenza pandemic outbreaks. The model uses demographic and epidemiological data. A few selected non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures are applied to mitigate the outbreaks. Disease burden for the U.S. is estimated by combining results from the clusters applying a method used in stratified sampling. Two possible pandemic scenarios with R 0  = 1.5 and 1.8 are examined. Infection attack rates with 95% C.I. (Confidence Interval) for R 0  = 1.5 and 1.8 are estimated to be 18.78% (17.3-20.27) and 25.05% (23.11-26.99), respectively. The corresponding number of deaths (95% C.I.), per 100,000, are 7252.3 (6598.45-7907.33) and 9670.99 (8953.66-10,389.95). The results reflect a possible worst-case scenario where the outbreak extends over all states of the U.S. and antivirals and vaccines are not administered. Our disease burden estimations are also likely to be somewhat high due to the fact that only dense urban regions covering approximately 3% of the geographic area and 81% of the population are used for simulating sample outbreaks. Outcomes from these simulations are extrapolated over the remaining 19% of the population spread sparsely over 97% of the area. Furthermore, the full extent of possible NPIs, if deployed, could also have lowered the disease burden estimates.

Breakdown of lung framework and an increase in pores of Kohn as initial events of emphysema and a cause of reduction in diffusing capacity.

PubMed

Yoshikawa, Akira; Sato, Shuntaro; Tanaka, Tomonori; Hashisako, Mikiko; Kashima, Yukio; Tsuchiya, Tomoshi; Yamasaki, Naoya; Nagayasu, Takeshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Fukuoka, Junya

2016-01-01

Pulmonary emphysema is the pathological prototype of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and is also associated with other lung diseases. We considered that observation with different approaches may provide new insights for the pathogenesis of emphysema. We reviewed tissue blocks of the lungs of 25 cases with/without emphysema and applied a three-dimensional observation method to the blocks. Based on the three-dimensional characteristics of the alveolar structure, we considered one face of the alveolar polyhedron as a structural unit of alveoli and called it a framework unit (FU). We categorized FUs based on their morphological characteristics and counted their number to evaluate the destructive changes in alveoli. We also evaluated the number and the area of pores of Kohn in FUs. We performed linear regression analysis to estimate the effect of these data on pulmonary function tests. In multivariable regression analysis, a decrease in the number of FUs without an alveolar wall led to a significant decrease in the diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and DLCO per unit alveolar volume, and an increase in the area of pores of Kohn had a significant effect on an increase in residual capacity. A breakdown in the lung framework and an increase in pores of Kohn are associated with a decrease in DLCO and DLCO per unit alveolar volume with/without emphysema.

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

The re-definition of the astronomical unit of length:reasons and consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capitaine, Nicole; Klioner, Sergei; McCarthy, Dennis

2012-08-01

The astronomical unit (au) is a unit of length approximating the Sun - Earth distance that is used mainly to express the scale of the solar system. Its current definition is based on the value of the Gaussian gravitational constant, k. This conveniently provided accurate relative distances (expressed in astronomical units) when absolute distances could not be estimated with high accuracy. The huge improvement achieved in solar system ephemerides during the last decade provides an opportunity to re - consider the definition and status of the au. This issue was discussed recently by Klioner (2008), Capitaine & Guinot (2009) and Capitaine et al. (2011), as well as within the IAU Working Group on "Numerical Standards for Fundamental astronomy". This resulted in a proposed IAU Resolution recommending that the astronomical unit be re - defined as a fixed number of Système International d ’ Unités (SI) metres through a defining constant. For continuity that constant should be the value of the current best estimate in metres as adopted by IAU 2009 Resolution B2 (i.e. 149 597 870 700 m). After reviewing the properties of the IAU 1976 astronomical unit and its status in the IAU 2009 System of Astronomical Constants, we explain the main reasons for a change; we present and discuss the proposed new definition as well as the advantages over the historical definition. One important consequence is that the heliocentric gravitational constant, GM(Sun), would cease to have a fixed value in astronomical units and will have to be determined experimentally. This would be compliant with modern dynamics of the solar system as it would allow

Increases in the Use of Prescription Opioid Analgesics and the Lack of Improvement in Disability Metrics Among Users

PubMed Central

Sites, Brian D.; Beach, Michael L.; Davis, Matthew

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives In the United States, use of oral opioid analgesics has been associated with increasing rates of addiction, abuse, and diversion. However, little is known about recent national use of non-illicit prescription opioid analgesics (those prescribed in a doctor-patient relationship), the primary source of these drugs for the general US population. Our primary objective was to examine trends in the use of prescription opioid analgesics in the United States and to identify defining characteristics of patient users of prescribed opioids from 2000 to 2010. Methods We used the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to examine trends in prescription oral opioid analgesic use from 2000 to 2010. We used survey design methods to make national estimates of adults (18 years and older) who reported receiving an opioid analgesic prescription (referred to as opioid users) and used logistic regression to examine predictors of opioid analgesic use. Our primary outcome measures were national estimates of total users of prescription opioid analgesics and total number of prescriptions. Our secondary outcome was that of observing changes in the disability and health of the users. Results The estimated total number of opioid analgesic prescriptions in the United States increased by 104%, from 43.8 million in 2000 to 89.2 million in 2010. In 2000, an estimated 7.4% (95% CI, 6.9–7.9) of adult Americans were prescription opioid users compared with 11.8% (95% CI, 11.2–12.4) in 2010. Based on estimates adjusted for changes in the general population, each year was associated with a 6% increase in the likelihood of receiving an opioid prescription from 2000 to 2010. Despite the apparent increase in use, there were no demonstrable improvements in the age- or sex-adjusted disability and health status measures of opioid users. Conclusions The use of prescription opioid analgesics among adult Americans has increased in recent years, and this increase does not appear to be associated with improvements in disability and health status among users. On a public health level, these data suggest that there may be an opportunity to reduce the prescribing of opioid analgesics without worsening of population health metrics. PMID:24310049

Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Guinea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Van Bockstael, Mark; Diaby, Mamadou; Cissé, Kabinet; Diallo, Thierno Amadou; Sano, Mahmoud

2012-01-01

In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that export shipments of rough diamonds were free of conflict concerns. Outcomes of the meeting were formally supported later in December of 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. The goal of this study was to estimate the alluvial diamond resource endowment and the current production capacity of the alluvial diamond mining sector of Guinea. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within Guinea's diamondiferous regions, while the diamond-production capacity of these zones was estimated by inputting the number of artisanal miners, the number of days artisans work per year, and the average grade of the deposits into a formulaic expression. Guinea's resource potential was estimated to be approximately 40 million carats, while the production capacity was estimated to lie within a range of 480,000 to 720,000 carats per year. While preliminary results have been produced by integrating historical documents, five fieldwork campaigns, and remote sensing and GIS analysis, significant data gaps remain. The artisanal mining sector is dynamic and is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. Estimates of the number of artisans and deposit variables, such as grade, vary from site to site and from zone to zone. This report has been developed on the basis of the most detailed information available at this time. However, continued fieldwork and evaluation of artisanally mined deposits would increase the accuracy of the results.