An attempt to obtain a detailed declination chart from the United States magnetic anomaly map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alldredge, L.R.

1989-01-01

Modern declination charts of the United States show almost no details. It was hoped that declination details could be derived from the information contained in the existing magnetic anomaly map of the United States. This could be realized only if all of the survey data were corrected to a common epoch, at which time a main-field vector model was known, before the anomaly values were computed. Because this was not done, accurate declination values cannot be determined. In spite of this conclusion, declination values were computed using a common main-field model for the entire United States to see how well they compared with observed values. The computed detailed declination values were found to compare less favourably with observed values of declination than declination values computed from the IGRF 1985 model itself. -from Author

Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

Data worth and prediction uncertainty for pesticide transport and fate models in Nebraska and Maryland, United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Few studies have attempted to quantify mass balances of both pesticides and degradates in multiple agricultural settings of the United States. We used inverse modeling to calibrate the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) for predicting the unsaturated-zone transport and fate of metolachlor, metola...

Individual-tree probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Richard M. Teck; Donald E. Hilt

1990-01-01

Describes a distance-independent individual-free probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States. Survival is predicted using a sixparameter logistic function with species-specific coefficients. Coefficients are presented for 28 species groups. The model accounts for variability in annual survival due to species, tree size, site quality, and the tree...

Individual tree-diameter growth model for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Richard M. Teck; Donald E. Hilt

1991-01-01

Describes a distance-independent individual-tree diameter growth model for the Northeastern United States. Diameter growth is predicted in two steps using a two parameter, sigmoidal growth function modified by a one parameter exponential decay function with species-specific coefficients. Coefficients are presented for 28 species groups. The model accounts for...

Additive Manufacturing (AM) in Expeditionary Operations: Current Needs, Technical Challenges, and Opportunities

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

site customization of existing models. The author performed an empirical study centered around a survey of United States Marine Corps (USMC) and United...recommends that more studies be performed to determine the best way forward for AM within the USMC and USN. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 3D printing, additive...customization of existing models. The author performed an em- pirical study centered around a survey of United States Marine Corps (USMC) and United

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Init...

Improving national-scale invasion maps: Tamarisk in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Evangelista, P.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Morisette, J.

2011-01-01

New invasions, better field data, and novel spatial-modeling techniques often drive the need to revisit previous maps and models of invasive species. Such is the case with the at least 10 species of Tamarix, which are invading riparian systems in the western United States and expanding their range throughout North America. In 2006, we developed a National Tamarisk Map by using a compilation of presence and absence locations with remotely sensed data and statistical modeling techniques. Since the publication of that work, our database of Tamarix distributions has grown significantly. Using the updated database of species occurrence, new predictor variables, and the maximum entropy (Maxent) model, we have revised our potential Tamarix distribution map for the western United States. Distance-to-water was the strongest predictor in the model (58.1%), while mean temperature of the warmest quarter was the second best predictor (18.4%). Model validation, averaged from 25 model iterations, indicated that our analysis had strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.93) and that the extent of Tamarix distributions is much greater than previously thought. The southwestern United States had the greatest suitable habitat, and this result differed from the 2006 model. Our work highlights the utility of iterative modeling for invasive species habitat modeling as new information becomes available. ?? 2011.

SPATS: a model for projecting softwood timber inventories in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

David J. Brooks

1987-01-01

The yield-table projection method for modeling the development of regional timber inventories is outlined, and its application to softwood timber types in the Southern United States is described. Problems of simulating forest management practices and natural succession are discussed. A computer model that projects softwood timber inventories using yield-table...

Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

2006-01-01

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each...

The Career Locus of Control Scale for Adolescents: Further Evidence of Validity in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Justin C.; Liu, Xiongyi; Griffin, Grant C.

2011-01-01

This study examined the construct validity of the Career Locus of Control Scale (CLCS) among diverse urban youth within the United States (N = 308). Confirmatory factor analyses verified two of the three models as acceptable fits. Two new models were also explored. Model 5 (Internality, Luck, and Non-Control), which was one of the new models, was…

Spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units in the state of Santa Catarina

PubMed Central

Cirino, Silviana; Lima, Fabiana Santos; Gonçalves, Mirian Buss

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the methodology used for assessing the spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units. METHODS A modeling and simulation method was adopted for the practical application of cardiac care service in the state of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil, using the p-median model. As the state is divided into 21 health care regions, a methodology which suggests an arrangement of eight intermediate cardiac care units was analyzed, comparing the results obtained using data from 1996 and 2012. RESULTS Results obtained using data from 2012 indicated significant changes in the state, particularly in relation to the increased population density in the coastal regions. The current study provided a satisfactory response, indicated by the homogeneity of the results regarding the location of the intermediate cardiac care units and their respective regional administrations, thereby decreasing the average distance traveled by users to health care units, located in higher population density areas. The validity of the model was corroborated through the analysis of the allocation of the median vertices proposed in 1996 and 2012. CONCLUSIONS The current spatial distribution of specialized cardiac care units is more homogeneous and reflects the demographic changes that have occurred in the state over the last 17 years. The comparison between the two simulations and the current configuration showed the validity of the proposed model as an aid in decision making for system expansion. PMID:26039394

Climate patterns as predictors of amphibians species richness and indicators of potential stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, W.; Hay, L.; McCabe, G.; Nanjappa, P.; Gallant, Alisa L.

2005-01-01

Amphibians occupy a range of habitats throughout the world, but species richness is greatest in regions with moist, warm climates. We modeled the statistical relations of anuran and urodele species richness with mean annual climate for the conterminous United States, and compared the strength of these relations at national and regional levels. Model variables were calculated for county and subcounty mapping units, and included 40-year (1960-1999) annual mean and mean annual climate statistics, mapping unit average elevation, mapping unit land area, and estimates of anuran and urodele species richness. Climate data were derived from more than 7,500 first-order and cooperative meteorological stations and were interpolated to the mapping units using multiple linear regression models. Anuran and urodele species richness were calculated from the United States Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) National Atlas for Amphibian Distributions. The national multivariate linear regression (MLR) model of anuran species richness had an adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.64 and the national MLR model for urodele species richness had an R2 value of 0.45. Stratifying the United States by coarse-resolution ecological regions provided models for anUrans that ranged in R2 values from 0.15 to 0.78. Regional models for urodeles had R2 values. ranging from 0.27 to 0.74. In general, regional models for anurans were more strongly influenced by temperature variables, whereas precipitation variables had a larger influence on urodele models.

COMPUTER MODEL TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Computer-based mathematical models for urban water resources planning, management and design are widely used by engineers and planners in both the public and private sectors. In the United States, the majority of the users are in the private (consulting) sector, yet most of the m...

Comprehensive Status and Trends of Nitrogen Loads to Estuaries in the Conterminous United States: Pacific Coast Results

EPA Science Inventory

We applied regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models to estimate status and trends of potential nitrogen loads to estuaries of the conterminous United States. The original Regional SPARROW models predict average detrended loads by source ...

The Past, Present and Future of Geodemographic Research in the United States and United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Singleton, Alexander D.; Spielman, Seth E.

2014-01-01

This article presents an extensive comparative review of the emergence and application of geodemographics in both the United States and United Kingdom, situating them as an extension of earlier empirically driven models of urban socio-spatial structure. The empirical and theoretical basis for this generalization technique is also considered. Findings demonstrate critical differences in both the application and development of geodemographics between the United States and United Kingdom resulting from their diverging histories, variable data economies, and availability of academic or free classifications. Finally, current methodological research is reviewed, linking this discussion prospectively to the changing spatial data economy in both the United States and United Kingdom. PMID:25484455

Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stirling, M.; Petersen, M.

2006-01-01

We compare the historical record of earthquake hazard experienced at 78 towns and cities (sites) distributed across New Zealand and the continental United States with the hazard estimated from the national probabilistic seismic-hazard (PSH) models for the two countries. The two PSH models are constructed with similar methodologies and data. Our comparisons show a tendency for the PSH models to slightly exceed the historical hazard in New Zealand and westernmost continental United States interplate regions, but show lower hazard than that of the historical record in the continental United States intraplate region. Factors such as non-Poissonian behavior, parameterization of active fault data in the PSH calculations, and uncertainties in estimation of ground-motion levels from historical felt intensity data for the interplate regions may have led to the higher-than-historical levels of hazard at the interplate sites. In contrast, the less-than-historical hazard for the remaining continental United States (intraplate) sites may be largely due to site conditions not having been considered at the intraplate sites, and uncertainties in correlating ground-motion levels to historical felt intensities. The study also highlights the importance of evaluating PSH models at more than one region, because the conclusions reached on the basis of a solely interplate or intraplate study would be very different.

NARSTO NE MODEL

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-09

... UV Ozone Detector Location:  Northeastern United States Spatial Coverage:  Data are provided from seven ... Related Data:  Spatial Coverage: Northeastern United States NARSTO Northeast SCAR-B Block:  ...

Regional variability in the accuracy of statistical reproductions of historical time series of daily streamflow at ungaged locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Archfield, S. A.; Over, T. M.; Kiang, J. E.

2015-12-01

In the United States and across the globe, the majority of stream reaches and rivers are substantially impacted by water use or remain ungaged. The result is large gaps in the availability of natural streamflow records from which to infer hydrologic understanding and inform water resources management. From basin-specific to continent-wide scales, many efforts have been undertaken to develop methods to estimate ungaged streamflow. This work applies and contrasts several statistical models of daily streamflow to more than 1,700 reference-quality streamgages across the conterminous United States using a cross-validation methodology. The variability of streamflow simulation performance across the country exhibits a pattern familiar to other continental scale modeling efforts performed for the United States. For portions of the West Coast and the dense, relatively homogeneous and humid regions of the eastern United States models produce reliable estimates of daily streamflow using many different prediction methods. Model performance for the middle portion of the United States, marked by more heterogeneous and arid conditions, and with larger contributing areas and sparser networks of streamgages, is consistently poor. A discussion of the difficulty of statistical interpolation and regionalization in these regions raises additional questions of data availability and quality, hydrologic process representation and dominance, and intrinsic variability.

Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Recreational Fishing in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Using a geographic information system, a spatially explicit modeling framework was developed consisting grid cells organized into 2,099 eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC-8) polygons for the coterminous United States. Projected temperature and precipitation changes associated...

Impact of Expanded North Slope of Alaska Crude Oil Production on Crude Oil Flows in the Contiguous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeRosa, Sean E.; Flanagan, Tatiana Paz

The National Transportation Fuels Model was used to simulate a hypothetical increase in North Slope of Alaska crude oil production. The results show that the magnitude of production utilized depends in part on the ability of crude oil and refined products infrastructure in the contiguous United States to absorb and adjust to the additional supply. Decisions about expanding North Slope production can use the National Transportation Fuels Model take into account the effects on crude oil flows in the contiguous United States.

Impact of State Public Health Spending on Disease Incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2009.

PubMed

Verma, Reetu; Clark, Samantha; Leider, Jonathon; Bishai, David

2017-02-01

To understand the relationship between state-level spending by public health departments and the incidence of three vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs): mumps, pertussis, and rubella in the United States from 1980 to 2009. This study uses state-level public health spending data from The Census Bureau and annual mumps, pertussis, and rubella incidence counts from the University of Pittsburgh's project Tycho. Ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects regression models were tested, with results indicating that a fixed effects model would be most appropriate model for this analysis. Model output suggests a statistically significant, negative relationship between public health spending and mumps and rubella incidence. Lagging outcome variables indicate that public health spending actually has the greatest impact on VPD incidence in subsequent years, rather than the year in which the spending occurred. Results were robust to models with lagged spending variables, national time trends, and state time trends, as well as models with and without Medicaid and hospital spending. Our analysis indicates that there is evidence of a significant, negative relationship between a state's public health spending and the incidence of two VPDs, mumps and rubella, in the United States. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

A Near-Road Modeling System for Community-Scale Assessments of Traffic-Related AirPollution in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Line Source (C-LINE) modeling system estimates emissions and dispersion of toxic air pollutants for roadways within the continental United States. It accesses publicly available traffic and meteorological datasets, and is optimized for use on community-sized areas (...

Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States

EPA Science Inventory

A physically-based water and energy balance model is used to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country ski...

Modeling Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Loss Resulting from Tobacco Use in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Robert M.; Anderson, John P.; Kaplan, Cameron M.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To describe the development of a model for estimating the effects of tobacco use upon Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and to estimate the impact of tobacco use on health outcomes for the United States (US) population using the model. Method: We obtained estimates of tobacco consumption from 6 years of the National Health Interview…

Forest-fire model with natural fire resistance.

PubMed

Yoder, Mark R; Turcotte, Donald L; Rundle, John B

2011-04-01

Observations suggest that contemporary wildfire suppression practices in the United States have contributed to conditions that facilitate large, destructive fires. We introduce a forest-fire model with natural fire resistance that supports this theory. Fire resistance is defined with respect to the size and shape of clusters; the model yields power-law frequency-size distributions of model fires that are consistent with field observations in the United States, Canada, and Australia.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Cigarette tax and public health: what are the implications of financially stressed smokers for the effects of price increases on smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Martire, Kristy A; Mattick, Richard P; Doran, Christopher M; Hall, Wayne D

2011-03-01

This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Preliminary evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model for 2002 over the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Morris, Ralph E; McNally, Dennis E; Tesche, Thomas W; Tonnesen, Gail; Boylan, James W; Brewer, Patricia

2005-11-01

The Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) is one of five Regional Planning Organizations that is charged with the management of haze, visibility, and other regional air quality issues in the United States. The VISTAS Phase I work effort modeled three episodes (January 2002, July 1999, and July 2001) to identify the optimal model configuration(s) to be used for the 2002 annual modeling in Phase II. Using model configurations recommended in the Phase I analysis, 2002 annual meteorological (Mesoscale Meterological Model [MM5]), emissions (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions [SMOKE]), and air quality (Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ]) simulations were performed on a 36-km grid covering the continental United States and a 12-km grid covering the Eastern United States. Model estimates were then compared against observations. This paper presents the results of the preliminary CMAQ model performance evaluation for the initial 2002 annual base case simulation. Model performance is presented for the Eastern United States using speciated fine particle concentration and wet deposition measurements from several monitoring networks. Initial results indicate fairly good performance for sulfate with fractional bias values generally within +/-20%. Nitrate is overestimated in the winter by approximately +50% and underestimated in the summer by more than -100%. Organic carbon exhibits a large summer underestimation bias of approximately -100% with much improved performance seen in the winter with a bias near zero. Performance for elemental carbon is reasonable with fractional bias values within +/- 40%. Other fine particulate (soil) and coarse particular matter exhibit large (80-150%) overestimation in the winter but improved performance in the summer. The preliminary 2002 CMAQ runs identified several areas of enhancements to improve model performance, including revised temporal allocation factors for ammonia emissions to improve nitrate performance and addressing missing processes in the secondary organic aerosol module to improve OC performance.

Estimates of long-term mean-annual nutrient loads considered for use in SPARROW models of the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States, 2002 base year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, David A.; Benoy, Glenn A.; Robertson, Dale M.

2018-05-11

Streamflow and nutrient concentration data needed to compute nitrogen and phosphorus loads were compiled from Federal, State, Provincial, and local agency databases and also from selected university databases. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads are necessary inputs to Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models are a way to estimate the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States. After screening the data, approximately 1,500 sites sampled by 34 agencies were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean-annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These final sites represent a wide range in watershed sizes, types of nutrient sources, and land-use and watershed characteristics in the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States.

Modeling to Evaluate Contribution of Oil and Gas Emissions to Air Pollution.

PubMed

Thompson, Tammy M; Shepherd, Donald; Stacy, Andrea; Barna, Michael G; Schichtel, Bret A

2017-04-01

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (Class I and II areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with a year-long modeling episode representing the best available representation of 2011 meteorology and emissions for the Western United States. The model inputs for the 2011 episodes were generated as part of the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). The study includes a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States. The year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the Class I and II areas in the Western United States. Modeling results suggest that emissions from O&G activity are having a negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in our National Parks and Class I areas. In this research, we use a modeling framework developed for oil and gas evaluation in the western United States to determine the modeled impacts of emissions associated with oil and gas production on air pollution metrics. We show that oil and gas production may have a significant negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in some national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States. Our findings are of particular interest to federal land managers as well as regulators in states heavy in oil and gas production as they consider control strategies to reduce the impact of development.

Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Haller, Kathleen M.; McCaffrey, Robert; Hammond, William C.; Bird, Peter; Moschetti, Morgan; Shen, Zhengkang; Bormann, Jayne; Thatcher, Wayne

2014-01-01

The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

Temporal Processing in the Visual Cortex of the Awake and Anesthetized Rat.

PubMed

Aasebø, Ida E J; Lepperød, Mikkel E; Stavrinou, Maria; Nøkkevangen, Sandra; Einevoll, Gaute; Hafting, Torkel; Fyhn, Marianne

2017-01-01

The activity pattern and temporal dynamics within and between neuron ensembles are essential features of information processing and believed to be profoundly affected by anesthesia. Much of our general understanding of sensory information processing, including computational models aimed at mathematically simulating sensory information processing, rely on parameters derived from recordings conducted on animals under anesthesia. Due to the high variety of neuronal subtypes in the brain, population-based estimates of the impact of anesthesia may conceal unit- or ensemble-specific effects of the transition between states. Using chronically implanted tetrodes into primary visual cortex (V1) of rats, we conducted extracellular recordings of single units and followed the same cell ensembles in the awake and anesthetized states. We found that the transition from wakefulness to anesthesia involves unpredictable changes in temporal response characteristics. The latency of single-unit responses to visual stimulation was delayed in anesthesia, with large individual variations between units. Pair-wise correlations between units increased under anesthesia, indicating more synchronized activity. Further, the units within an ensemble show reproducible temporal activity patterns in response to visual stimuli that is changed between states, suggesting state-dependent sequences of activity. The current dataset, with recordings from the same neural ensembles across states, is well suited for validating and testing computational network models. This can lead to testable predictions, bring a deeper understanding of the experimental findings and improve models of neural information processing. Here, we exemplify such a workflow using a Brunel network model.

Temporal Processing in the Visual Cortex of the Awake and Anesthetized Rat

PubMed Central

Aasebø, Ida E. J.; Stavrinou, Maria; Nøkkevangen, Sandra; Einevoll, Gaute

2017-01-01

Abstract The activity pattern and temporal dynamics within and between neuron ensembles are essential features of information processing and believed to be profoundly affected by anesthesia. Much of our general understanding of sensory information processing, including computational models aimed at mathematically simulating sensory information processing, rely on parameters derived from recordings conducted on animals under anesthesia. Due to the high variety of neuronal subtypes in the brain, population-based estimates of the impact of anesthesia may conceal unit- or ensemble-specific effects of the transition between states. Using chronically implanted tetrodes into primary visual cortex (V1) of rats, we conducted extracellular recordings of single units and followed the same cell ensembles in the awake and anesthetized states. We found that the transition from wakefulness to anesthesia involves unpredictable changes in temporal response characteristics. The latency of single-unit responses to visual stimulation was delayed in anesthesia, with large individual variations between units. Pair-wise correlations between units increased under anesthesia, indicating more synchronized activity. Further, the units within an ensemble show reproducible temporal activity patterns in response to visual stimuli that is changed between states, suggesting state-dependent sequences of activity. The current dataset, with recordings from the same neural ensembles across states, is well suited for validating and testing computational network models. This can lead to testable predictions, bring a deeper understanding of the experimental findings and improve models of neural information processing. Here, we exemplify such a workflow using a Brunel network model. PMID:28791331

Corima: A Bilingual Experiment in the Tarahumara Region in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. How Does It Measure against Transitional Bilingual Programs in the United States?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nunez, Mario A.

This report explores two bilingual educational approaches currently in use in Mexico and the United States. The study pursues a limited comparison between two modalities of bilingual instruction, as observed and reported in the consulted literature. The U.S. model featured is known as the two-way bilingual model, an additive approach to…

Forest resources, government policy, and investment location decisions of the forest products industry in the southern United States

Treesearch

Changyou Sun; Daowei Zhang

2010-01-01

In this article, the results of an initial attempt to estimate the effects of state attributes on plant location and investment expenditure were presented for the forest products industry in the southern United States. A conditional logit model was used to analyze new plant births, and a time-series cross-section model to assess the total capital expenditure....

Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern United States (http://www.nrs.fs.fed....

Evaluation of the CONSUME and FOFEM fuel consumption models in pine and mixed hardwood forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Eva C. Karau; Roger D. Ottmar; Maureen C. Kennedy; James B. Cronan; Clinton S. Wright; Robert E. Keane

2014-01-01

Reliable predictions of fuel consumption are critical in the eastern United States (US), where prescribed burning is frequently applied to forests and air quality is of increasing concern. CONSUME and the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), predictive models developed to estimate fuel consumption and emissions from wildland fires, have not been systematically...

Largest-Crown- Width Prediction Models for 53 Species in the Western United States

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

2004-01-01

The mean crown diameters of stand-grown trees 5.0-in. dbh and larger were modeled as a function of stem diameter, live-crown ratio, stand-level basal area, latitude, longitude, elevation, and Hopkins bioclimatic index for 53 tree species in the western United States. Stem diameter was statistically significant in all models, and a quadratic term for stem diameter was...

Crown-Diameter Prediction Models for 87 Species of Stand-Grown Trees in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

2003-01-01

The mean crown diameters of stand-grown trees were modeled as a function of stem diameter, live-crown ratio, stand basal area, latitude, longitude, elevation, and Hopkins bioclimatic index for 87 tree species in the eastern United States. Stem diameter was statistically significant in all models, and a quadratic term for stem diameter was required for some species....

Individual tree diameter increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using a multilevel linear mixed effects model

Treesearch

Fabian C.C. Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2008-01-01

A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates acting at tree and stand level, as breast height diameter, density, site index...

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Treesearch

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

An intermodal network model of coal distribution in the United States and its economic implications for the inland waterway system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

This paper describes a GIS-based intermodal network model for the shipment of coal in the United States. The : purpose of this research was to investigate the role played by railways, waterways, and highways in the movement of : coal from its source ...

77 FR 13632 - Receipt of Complaint; Solicitation of Comments Relating to the Public Interest

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-07

... Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use in Making Incremental Dental Positioning... importation of certain digital models, digital data, and treatment plans for use in making incremental dental... health and welfare in the United States, competitive conditions in the United States economy, the...

78 FR 29157 - Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use, in Making Incremental Dental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-17

... INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Certain Digital Models, Digital Data, and Treatment Plans for Use... conditions in the United States economy, the production of like or directly competitive articles in the..., competitive conditions in the United States economy, the production of like or directly competitive articles...

Projecting housing starts and softwood lumber consumption in the United States

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David N. Wear; Karen L. Abt; Robert C. Abt

2018-01-01

New residential construction is a primary user of wood products in the United States; therefore, wood products projections require understanding the determinants of housing starts. We model quarterly US total, single-family, and multifamily housing starts with several model specifications, using data from 1979 to 2008, and evaluate their...

Development of a biorefinery optimized biofuel supply curve for the western United States

Treesearch

Nathan Parker; Peter Tittmann; Quinn Hart; Richard Nelson; Ken Skog; Anneliese Schmidt; Edward Gray; Bryan Jenkins

2010-01-01

A resource assessment and biorefinery siting optimization model was developed and implemented to assess potential biofuel supply across the Western United States from agricultural, forest, urban, and energy crop biomass. Spatial information including feedstock resources, existing and potential refinery locations and a transportation network model is provided to a mixed...

RELATIVE EFFECTS OF OBSERVATIONALLY-NUDGED MODEL METEOROLOGY AND DOWN-SCALED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL METEOROLOGY ON BIOGENIC EMISSIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) participate in a multi-agency examination of the effects of climate change through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2003). The EPA Global Change Rese...

Demand for resident hunting in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Neelam Poudyal; Seong Hoon Cho; J. Michael Bowker

2008-01-01

We modeled hunting demand among resident hunters in the Southeastern United States. Our model revealed that future hunting demand will likely decline in this region. Population growth in the region will increase demand but structural change in the region's demography (e.g., "browning" and "aging "), along with declining forestland access will...

Tiered Intervention: History and Trends in Finland and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jahnukainen, Markku; Itkonen, Tiina

2016-01-01

This study explores the similarities and differences of relatively newly established tiered intervention models for the support of students with special needs in the United States (response to intervention) and in Finland (learning and schooling support). The current models in both countries consist of several tiers with fairly similar…

A model for estimating windbreak carbon within COMET-Farm™

Treesearch

Justin ​Ziegler; Mark Easter; Amy Swan; James Brandle; William Ballesteros; Grant Domke; Adam Chambers; Marlen Eve; Keith Paustian

2016-01-01

Agroforestry as a land management practice presents a method for partially offsetting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural land. Of all agroforestry practices in the United States, windbreaks in particular are used throughout the United States providing a useful starting point for deriving a modelling systemwhich could quantify the amount of carbon sequestered on...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 CMAS)

EPA Science Inventory

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and...

Nonlinear predictive control of a boiler-turbine unit: A state-space approach with successive on-line model linearisation and quadratic optimisation.

PubMed

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2017-03-01

This paper details development of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for a boiler-turbine unit, which is a nonlinear multiple-input multiple-output process. The control objective is to follow set-point changes imposed on two state (output) variables and to satisfy constraints imposed on three inputs and one output. In order to obtain a computationally efficient control scheme, the state-space model is successively linearised on-line for the current operating point and used for prediction. In consequence, the future control policy is easily calculated from a quadratic optimisation problem. For state estimation the extended Kalman filter is used. It is demonstrated that the MPC strategy based on constant linear models does not work satisfactorily for the boiler-turbine unit whereas the discussed algorithm with on-line successive model linearisation gives practically the same trajectories as the truly nonlinear MPC controller with nonlinear optimisation repeated at each sampling instant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV and Mexican migrant workers in the United States: a review applying the vulnerable populations conceptual model.

PubMed

Albarrán, Cynthia R; Nyamathi, Adeline

2011-01-01

Mexican migrant workers residing in the United States are a vulnerable population at high risk for HIV infection. This article critically appraises the published data surrounding HIV prevalence in this vulnerable group, as seen through the lens of the Vulnerable Populations Conceptual Model. This model demonstrates how exposure to risk and resource availability affect health status. The health status of Mexican migrants in the United States is compromised by a number of factors that increase risk of HIV: limited access to health services, multiple sexual partners, low rates of condom use, men having sex with men, and lay injection practices. Migration from Mexico to the United States has increased the prevalence of HIV in rural Mexico, making this an issue of urgent binational concern. This review highlights the implications for further nursing research, practice, and policy. Copyright © 2011 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining Pharmacy Workforce Issues in the United States and the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Covvey, Jordan R.; Cohron, Peter P.

2015-01-01

Objective. To examine available data and actions surrounding current pharmacy workforce issues in the United States and United Kingdom. Methods. Published pharmacy workforce data from the United States and United Kingdom were gathered from various sources, including PUBMED, Internet search engines, and pharmacy organization websites. Data was collated from additional sources including scientific literature, internal documents, news releases, and policy positions. Results. The number of colleges and schools of pharmacy has expanded by approximately 50% in both the United States and United Kingdom over the previous decade. In the United States, continued demand for the pharmacy workforce has been forecasted, but this need is based on outdated supply figures and assumptions for economic recovery. In the United Kingdom, workforce modeling has predicted a significant future oversupply of pharmacists, and action within the profession has attempted to address the situation through educational planning and regulation. Conclusion. Workforce planning is an essential task for sustaining a healthy profession. Recent workforce planning mechanisms in the United Kingdom may provide guidance for renewed efforts within the profession in the United States. PMID:25861098

Plan, formulate, discuss and correlate a NASTRAN finite element vibrations model of the Boeing Model 360 helicopter airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabel, R.; Lang, P. F.; Smith, L. A.; Reed, D. A.

1989-01-01

Boeing Helicopter, together with other United States helicopter manufacturers, participated in a finite element applications program to emplace in the United States a superior capability to utilize finite element analysis models in support of helicopter airframe design. The activities relating to planning and creating a finite element vibrations model of the Boeing Model 36-0 composite airframe are summarized, along with the subsequent analytical correlation with ground shake test data.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Kai Duan; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Peter V. Caldwell; Erika C. Cohen; Shanlei Sun; Heather D. Aldridge; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Yang Zhang

2017-01-01

This study examines the relative roles of cli- matic variables in altering annual runoff in the contermi- nous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress In- dex model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercompar- ison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)...

Defining stem profile model for wood valuation of red pine in Ontario and Michigan with consideration of stand density influence on tree taper

Treesearch

W. T. Zakrzewski; M. Penner; D. W. MacFarlane

2007-01-01

As part of the Canada-United States Great Lakes Stem Profile Modelling Project, established to support the local timber production process and to enable cross-border comparisons of timber volumes, here we present results of fitting Zakrzewski's (1999) stem profile model for red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) growing in Michigan, United States, and...

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

PubMed

Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-04-16

Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total knee arthroplasty were lower. Economic downturns in the 2000s did not substantially influence the national growth trends for hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States. These latest updated projections provide a basis for surgeons, hospitals, payers, and policy makers to plan for the future demand for total joint replacement surgery.

Optimal Tree Increment Models for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2005-01-01

I used the potential relative increment (PRI) methodology to develop optimal tree diameter growth models for the Northeastern United States. Thirty species from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Database yielded 69,676 individuals, which were then reduced to fast-growing subsets for PRI analysis. For instance, only 14 individuals from the greater than 6,300-tree eastern...

An intermodal network model of coal distribution in the United States and its economic implications for the inland waterway system Kentucky : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-22

This paper describes a GIS-based intermodal network model for the shipment of coal in the United States. The purpose : of this research was to investigate the role played by railways, waterways, and highways in the movement of coal from : its source ...

A Competitive Model of Women's Labor Force Participation in the United States: 1940-1978.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Kathryn B.; Weiss, Jane A.

An examination was made of what determined women's opportunities to participate in the United States labor force from 1940 to 1978. Using a model drawn from ecological and competition theory, the data examined suggest that the expansion of the economy, the relative proportion of women in the population, female tertiary education, and governmental…

Aristotelian-Inspired Model for Curtailing Academic Dishonesty in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanders, Maria A.

2012-01-01

This dissertation explores the growing epidemic of academic dishonesty in the United States in order to propose an Aristotelian-inspired model for developing moral character to curtail this epidemic. The task is laid out in four parts. Chapter one responds to the problem of "akrasia," adopting a modified version of Devin Henry's…

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impac...

Oak decline risk rating for the southeastern United States

Treesearch

S. Oak; F. Tainter; J. Williams; D. Starkey

1996-01-01

Oak decline risk rating models were developed for upland hardwood forests in the southeastern United States using data gathered during regional oak decline surveys. Stepwise discriminant analyses were used to relate 12 stand and site variables with major oak decline incidence for each of three subregions plus one incorporating all subregions. The best model for the...

China's international trade and air pollution in the United States.

PubMed

Lin, Jintai; Pan, Da; Davis, Steven J; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin; Wang, Can; Streets, David G; Wuebbles, Donald J; Guan, Dabo

2014-02-04

China is the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollutants, and measurable amounts of Chinese pollution are transported via the atmosphere to other countries, including the United States. However, a large fraction of Chinese emissions is due to manufacture of goods for foreign consumption. Here, we analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese air pollutant emissions on the global atmospheric environment, linking an economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. We find that in 2006, 36% of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxides, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon emitted in China were associated with production of goods for export. For each of these pollutants, about 21% of export-related Chinese emissions were attributed to China-to-US export. Atmospheric modeling shows that transport of the export-related Chinese pollution contributed 3-10% of annual mean surface sulfate concentrations and 0.5-1.5% of ozone over the western United States in 2006. This Chinese pollution also resulted in one extra day or more of noncompliance with the US ozone standard in 2006 over the Los Angeles area and many regions in the eastern United States. On a daily basis, the export-related Chinese pollution contributed, at a maximum, 12-24% of sulfate concentrations over the western United States. As the United States outsourced manufacturing to China, sulfate pollution in 2006 increased in the western United States but decreased in the eastern United States, reflecting the competing effect between enhanced transport of Chinese pollution and reduced US emissions. Our findings are relevant to international efforts to reduce transboundary air pollution.

Complementary-relationship-based 30 year normals (1981-2010) of monthly latent heat fluxes across the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szilagyi, Jozsef

2015-11-01

Thirty year normal (1981-2010) monthly latent heat fluxes (ET) over the conterminous United States were estimated by a modified Advection-Aridity model from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) radiation and wind as well as Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) air and dew-point temperature data. Mean annual ET values were calibrated with PRISM precipitation (P) and validated against United States Geological Survey runoff (Q) data. At the six-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level (sample size of 334) the estimated 30 year normal runoff (P - ET) had a bias of 18 mm yr-1, a root-mean-square error of 96 mm yr-1, and a linear correlation coefficient value of 0.95, making the estimates on par with the latest Land Surface Model results but without the need for soil and vegetation information or any soil moisture budgeting.

A discrete event simulation tool to support and predict hospital and clinic staffing.

PubMed

DeRienzo, Christopher M; Shaw, Ryan J; Meanor, Phillip; Lada, Emily; Ferranti, Jeffrey; Tanaka, David

2017-06-01

We demonstrate how to develop a simulation tool to help healthcare managers and administrators predict and plan for staffing needs in a hospital neonatal intensive care unit using administrative data. We developed a discrete event simulation model of nursing staff needed in a neonatal intensive care unit and then validated the model against historical data. The process flow was translated into a discrete event simulation model. Results demonstrated that the model can be used to give a respectable estimate of annual admissions, transfers, and deaths based upon two different staffing levels. The discrete event simulation tool model can provide healthcare managers and administrators with (1) a valid method of modeling patient mix, patient acuity, staffing needs, and costs in the present state and (2) a forecast of how changes in a unit's staffing, referral patterns, or patient mix would affect a unit in a future state.

76 FR 18038 - Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Model A340-200 and -300 Series Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-01

... MCAI states: Two A340-300 aeroplanes experienced one single door opening of engine number (n[deg]) 3... the United States. Pursuant to our bilateral agreement with the State of Design Authority, we have... products of this type currently registered in the United States. However, this rule is necessary to ensure...

The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction: Report to the President of the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-31

What We Don’t Know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 The United States Response: The Biodefense Shield . . . . . . . 508 Going Forward: Improving... Going Forward: A Different Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 Protecting our Borders: The Department of Homeland Security...headquarters are felt only lightly. We understand the limits of organizational change, and many of our recommendations go beyond organizational issues and

Timber product implications of a program of mechanical fuel treatments applied on public timberland in the Western United States

Treesearch

Barbour R. James.; Xiaoping Zhou; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2008-01-01

This study reports the results from a 5 year simulation of forest thinning intended to reduce fire hazard on publicly managed lands in the western United States. A state simulation model of interrelated timber markets was used to evaluate the timber product outputs. Approximately 84 million acres (34 million hectares), or 66% of total timberland in the western United...

Evaluating the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) at a coniferous forest site in northwestern United States using flux and carbon-isotope measurements

Treesearch

Henrique F. Duarte; Brett M. Raczka; Daniel M. Ricciuto; John C. Lin; Charles D. Koven; Peter E. Thornton; David R. Bowling; Chun-Ta Lai; Kenneth J. Bible; James R. Ehleringer

2017-01-01

Droughts in the western United States are expected to intensify with climate change. Thus, an adequate representation of ecosystem response to water stress in land models is critical for predicting carbon dynamics. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest...

State Enterprise Zone Programs: Have They Worked?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Alan H.; Fisher, Peter S.

The effectiveness of state enterprise zone programs was examined by using a hypothetical-firm model called the Tax and Incentives Model-Enterprise Zones (TAIM-ez) model to analyze the value of enterprise zone incentives to businesses across the United States and especially in the 13 states that had substantial enterprise zone programs by 1990. The…

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

A multi-level simulation platform of natural gas internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid generation system - Part II. Balancing units model library and system simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Cheng; Cai, Ningsheng; Croiset, Eric

2011-10-01

Following our integrated hierarchical modeling framework of natural gas internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell (IRSOFC), this paper firstly introduces the model libraries of main balancing units, including some state-of-the-art achievements and our specific work. Based on gPROMS programming code, flexible configuration and modular design are fully realized by specifying graphically all unit models in each level. Via comparison with the steady-state experimental data of Siemens-Westinghouse demonstration system, the in-house multi-level SOFC-gas turbine (GT) simulation platform is validated to be more accurate than the advanced power system analysis tool (APSAT). Moreover, some units of the demonstration system are designed reversely for analysis of a typically part-load transient process. The framework of distributed and dynamic modeling in most of units is significant for the development of control strategies in the future.

Differences in liquor prices between control state-operated and license-state retail outlets in the United States.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Albers, Alison B; Naimi, Timothy S; Jernigan, David H

2013-02-01

This study aims to compare the average price of liquor in the United States between retail alcohol outlets in states that have a monopoly ('control' states) with those that do not ('licence' states). A cross-sectional study of brand-specific alcohol prices in the United States. We determined the average prices in February 2012 of 74 brands of liquor among the 13 control states that maintain a monopoly on liquor sales at the retail level and among a sample of 50 license-state liquor stores, using their online-available prices. We calculated average prices for 74 brands of liquor by control versus license state. We used a random-effects regression model to estimate differences between control and license state prices-overall and by alcoholic beverage type. We also compared prices between the 13 control states. The overall mean price for the 74 brands was $27.79 in the license states [95% confidence interval (CI): $25.26-30.32] and $29.82 in the control states (95% CI: $26.98-32.66). Based on the random-effects linear regression model, the average liquor price was approximately $2 lower (6.9% lower) in license states. In the United States monopoly of alcohol retail outlets appears to be associated with slightly higher liquor prices. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Arthroplasty Utilization in the United States is Predicted by Age-Specific Population Groups.

PubMed

Bashinskaya, Bronislava; Zimmerman, Ryan M; Walcott, Brian P; Antoci, Valentin

2012-01-01

Osteoarthritis is a common indication for hip and knee arthroplasty. An accurate assessment of current trends in healthcare utilization as they relate to arthroplasty may predict the needs of a growing elderly population in the United States. First, incidence data was queried from the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1993 to 2009. Patients undergoing total knee and hip arthroplasty were identified. Then, the United States Census Bureau was queried for population data from the same study period as well as to provide future projections. Arthroplasty followed linear regression models with the population group >64 years in both hip and knee groups. Projections for procedure incidence in the year 2050 based on these models were calculated to be 1,859,553 cases (hip) and 4,174,554 cases (knee). The need for hip and knee arthroplasty is expected to grow significantly in the upcoming years, given population growth predictions.

Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States

Treesearch

Emma J. Hudgins; Andrew M. Liebhold; Brian Leung; Regan Early

2017-01-01

We tested whether a general spread model could capture macroecological patterns across all damaging invasive forest pests in the United States. We showed that a common constant dispersal kernel model, simulated from the discovery date, explained 67.94% of the variation in range size across all pests, and had 68.00% locational accuracy between predicted and observed...

Contribution of Increasing CO2 and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States

Treesearch

David Schimel; Jerry Melillo; Hanqin Tian; A. David McGuire; David Kicklighter; Timothy Kittel; Nan Rosenbloom; Steven Running; Peter Thorton; Dennis Ojima; William Parton; Robin Kelly; Martin Sykes; Ron Neilson; Brian Rizzo

2000-01-01

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink...

Toiling Together for Social Cohesion: International Influences on the Development of Teacher Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramsey, Paul J.

2014-01-01

This article examines the ways in which the very idea of teacher education in the United States was transplanted from foreign lands. Teacher education, particularly normal school training, was based on a model imported from despotic Prussia, a model that was popularised by French and American visitors to the northeastern German land. Although…

Modeling Analyses of the Effects of Changes in Nitrogen Oxides Emission from the Electric Power Sector on Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

This modeling study tests a hypothetical scenario to see what air quality might have looked like if no emission controls had been placed on electric generating units, as required by the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call required in 2004. Results showed that ozone levels w...

Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change...

Second-chance signal transduction explains cooperative flagellar switching.

PubMed

Zot, Henry G; Hasbun, Javier E; Minh, Nguyen Van

2012-01-01

The reversal of flagellar motion (switching) results from the interaction between a switch complex of the flagellar rotor and a torque-generating stationary unit, or stator (motor unit). To explain the steeply cooperative ligand-induced switching, present models propose allosteric interactions between subunits of the rotor, but do not address the possibility of a reaction that stimulates a bidirectional motor unit to reverse direction of torque. During flagellar motion, the binding of a ligand-bound switch complex at the dwell site could excite a motor unit. The probability that another switch complex of the rotor, moving according to steady-state rotation, will reach the same dwell site before that motor unit returns to ground state will be determined by the independent decay rate of the excited-state motor unit. Here, we derive an analytical expression for the energy coupling between a switch complex and a motor unit of the stator complex of a flagellum, and demonstrate that this model accounts for the cooperative switching response without the need for allosteric interactions. The analytical result can be reproduced by simulation when (1) the motion of the rotor delivers a subsequent ligand-bound switch to the excited motor unit, thereby providing the excited motor unit with a second chance to remain excited, and (2) the outputs from multiple independent motor units are constrained to a single all-or-none event. In this proposed model, a motor unit and switch complex represent the components of a mathematically defined signal transduction mechanism in which energy coupling is driven by steady-state and is regulated by stochastic ligand binding. Mathematical derivation of the model shows the analytical function to be a general form of the Hill equation (Hill AV (1910) The possible effects of the aggregation of the molecules of haemoglobin on its dissociation curves. J Physiol 40: iv-vii).

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Quenzer, Robert; Friesz, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs

PubMed Central

Rose, Charles E.; Cohn, Amanda; Coronado, Fatima; Clark, Thomas A.; Wenger, Jay D.; Bulkow, Lisa; Bruce, Michael G.; Messonnier, Nancy E.; Hennessy, Thomas W.

2012-01-01

In response to the 2007–2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age. PMID:22257582

China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States

PubMed Central

Lin, Jintai; Pan, Da; Davis, Steven J.; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin; Wang, Can; Streets, David G.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Guan, Dabo

2014-01-01

China is the world’s largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollutants, and measurable amounts of Chinese pollution are transported via the atmosphere to other countries, including the United States. However, a large fraction of Chinese emissions is due to manufacture of goods for foreign consumption. Here, we analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese air pollutant emissions on the global atmospheric environment, linking an economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling. We find that in 2006, 36% of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide, 27% of nitrogen oxides, 22% of carbon monoxide, and 17% of black carbon emitted in China were associated with production of goods for export. For each of these pollutants, about 21% of export-related Chinese emissions were attributed to China-to-US export. Atmospheric modeling shows that transport of the export-related Chinese pollution contributed 3–10% of annual mean surface sulfate concentrations and 0.5–1.5% of ozone over the western United States in 2006. This Chinese pollution also resulted in one extra day or more of noncompliance with the US ozone standard in 2006 over the Los Angeles area and many regions in the eastern United States. On a daily basis, the export-related Chinese pollution contributed, at a maximum, 12–24% of sulfate concentrations over the western United States. As the United States outsourced manufacturing to China, sulfate pollution in 2006 increased in the western United States but decreased in the eastern United States, reflecting the competing effect between enhanced transport of Chinese pollution and reduced US emissions. Our findings are relevant to international efforts to reduce transboundary air pollution. PMID:24449863

The Contribution of National Disparities to International Differences in Mortality Between the United States and 7 European Countries

PubMed Central

Avendano, Mauricio; Berkman, Lisa F.; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Lundberg, Olle; Martikainen, Pekka; Menvielle, Gwenn; van Lenthe, Frank J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

2015-01-01

Objectives. This study examined to what extent the higher mortality in the United States compared to many European countries is explained by larger social disparities within the United States. We estimated the expected US mortality if educational disparities in the United States were similar to those in 7 European countries. Methods. Poisson models were used to quantify the association between education and mortality for men and women aged 30 to 74 years in the United States, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland for the period 1989 to 2003. US data came from the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index and the European data came from censuses linked to national mortality registries. Results. If people in the United States had the same distribution of education as their European counterparts, the US mortality disadvantage would be larger. However, if educational disparities in mortality within the United States equaled those within Europe, mortality differences between the United States and Europe would be reduced by 20% to 100%. Conclusions. Larger educational disparities in mortality in the United States than in Europe partly explain why US adults have higher mortality than their European counterparts. Policies to reduce mortality among the lower educated will be necessary to bridge the mortality gap between the United States and European countries. PMID:25713947

The contribution of national disparities to international differences in mortality between the United States and 7 European countries.

PubMed

van Hedel, Karen; Avendano, Mauricio; Berkman, Lisa F; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Lundberg, Olle; Martikainen, Pekka; Menvielle, Gwenn; van Lenthe, Frank J; Mackenbach, Johan P

2015-04-01

This study examined to what extent the higher mortality in the United States compared to many European countries is explained by larger social disparities within the United States. We estimated the expected US mortality if educational disparities in the United States were similar to those in 7 European countries. Poisson models were used to quantify the association between education and mortality for men and women aged 30 to 74 years in the United States, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland for the period 1989 to 2003. US data came from the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index and the European data came from censuses linked to national mortality registries. If people in the United States had the same distribution of education as their European counterparts, the US mortality disadvantage would be larger. However, if educational disparities in mortality within the United States equaled those within Europe, mortality differences between the United States and Europe would be reduced by 20% to 100%. Larger educational disparities in mortality in the United States than in Europe partly explain why US adults have higher mortality than their European counterparts. Policies to reduce mortality among the lower educated will be necessary to bridge the mortality gap between the United States and European countries.

Official portrait of astronaut Charles J. Precourt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Official portrait of astronaut Charles J. Precourt. Precourt, a member of Astronaut Class 13 and United States Air Force (USAF), wears blue flight suit and poses with space shuttle orbiter model with a United States flag creating the backdrop.

26 CFR 1.956-2 - Definition of United States property.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... United States of— (a) A patent or copyright, (b) An invention, model, or design (whether or not patented... to repay the loan, but by agreeing to buy for $1,00,000 at maturity the note representing A's...

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Markowitz, Lauri E

2008-02-01

We describe a simplified model, based on the current economic and health effects of human papillomavirus (HPV), to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls in the United States. Under base-case parameter values, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by vaccination in the context of current cervical cancer screening practices in the United States ranged from $3,906 to $14,723 (2005 US dollars), depending on factors such as whether herd immunity effects were assumed; the types of HPV targeted by the vaccine; and whether the benefits of preventing anal, vaginal, vulvar, and oropharyngeal cancers were included. The results of our simplified model were consistent with published studies based on more complex models when key assumptions were similar. This consistency is reassuring because models of varying complexity will be essential tools for policy makers in the development of optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

Individual tree height increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using linear mixed effects models

Treesearch

Fabian Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2006-01-01

A height increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in western United States. The data set used in this study came from long-term permanent research plots in even-aged, pure stands both planted and of natural origin. The data base consists of six levels-of-growing stock studies supplemented by initial...

The Dynamic General Vegetation Model MC1 over the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute resolution: model inputs and outputs

Treesearch

Ray Drapek; John B. Kim; Ronald P. Neilson

2015-01-01

Land managers need to include climate change in their decisionmaking, but the climate models that project future climates operate at spatial scales that are too coarse to be of direct use. To create a dataset more useful to managers, soil and historical climate were assembled for the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute grid resolution. Nine CMIP3 future climate...

An equivalent layer magnetization model for the United States derived from MAGSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayhew, M. A.; Galliher, S. C. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Long wavelength anomalies in the total magnetic field measured field measured by MAGSAT over the United States and adjacent areas are inverted to an equivalent layer crustal magnetization distribution. The model is based on an equal area dipole grid at the Earth's surface. Model resolution having physical significance, is about 220 km for MAGSAT data in the elevation range 300-500 km. The magnetization contours correlate well with large-scale tectonic provinces.

Effects of El Niño on summertime ozone air quality in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

We investigate the effect of El Nino on maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) surface ozone over the eastern United States in summer (June-August, JJA) from 1980 to 2016. El Nino can influence the extra-tropical climate through the propagation of stationary waves, leading to (1) a low-pressure anomaly in the western Atlantic, which reduces transport of moist, clean air from the ocean into the mid- and southern Atlantic states, and (2) intensified southerly flow in the South Central states, which conversely enhances flux of moist, clean air into this region. El Nino can also trigger greater subsidence, reduced precipitation, and increased surface solar radiation in the mid- and southern Atlantic States. As a result, every standard deviation increase in the Nino 1+2 index is associated with an increase of 1-2 ppbv ozone in the Atlantic States and a decrease of 0.5-2 ppbv ozone in the South Central states. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project have difficulties capturing the El Nino influence on summertime weather in the eastern United States, implying that the freely running chemistry-climate models also cannot simulate the ozone variability related to El Nino.

Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

PubMed

Wakie, Tewodros T; Yee, Wee L; Neven, Lisa G

2018-05-28

The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

Apprenticeships Make a Comeback in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Labi, Aisha

2012-01-01

The close connections between industry and academe, in which students simultaneously train and study, are gaining ground in the United States. Inspired by Germany's model, states are encouraging community colleges and manufacturers to work together on training programs. This offers a possible solution to a problem that continues to vex the United…

Language Education in Elementary Schools: Meeting the Needs of the Nation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubio, Fernando

2018-01-01

This article briefly reviews the social, political, and economic context that explains the present status of elementary language education in the United States and addresses the challenges identified by recent reports on the state of language education in the United States. Different curricular models of world language education--exploratory,…

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

PubMed Central

Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit. PMID:29765629

77 FR 31026 - Use of Computer Simulation of the United States Blood Supply in Support of Planning for Emergency...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-24

... enhancements to extend the model predictions from red blood cell units to other blood components, such as...] Use of Computer Simulation of the United States Blood Supply in Support of Planning for Emergency...: Notice of public workshop. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing a public workshop...

Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

Treesearch

R Barbero; J T Abatzoglou; E A Steel

2014-01-01

Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ¡­60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric...

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

Improved accuracy of aboveground biomass and carbon estimates for live trees in forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Philip Radtke; David Walker; Jereme Frank; Aaron Weiskittel; Clara DeYoung; David MacFarlane; Grant Domke; Christopher Woodall; John Coulston; James Westfall

2017-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass and carbon stocks at regional to national scales is a key requirement in determining terrestrial carbon sources and sinks on United States (US) forest lands. To that end, comprehensive assessment and testing of alternative volume and biomass models were conducted for individual tree models employed in the component ratio method (...

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

Allocating Fire Mitigation Funds on the Basis of the Predicted Probabilities of Forest Wildfire

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Krista M. Gebert; R. James Barbour; Susan L. Odell; Steven C. Yaddof

2005-01-01

A logistic regression model was used with map-based information to predict the probability of forest fire for forested areas of the United States. Model parameters were estimated using a digital layer depicting the locations of wildfires and satellite imagery depicting thermal hotspots. The area of the United States in the upper 50th percentile with respect to...

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

2010-01-01

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

Spatiotemporal variability of snow depletion curves derived from SNODAS for the conterminous United States, 2004-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Jessica; Hay, Lauren E.; Bock, Andrew R.

2017-01-01

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental-scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental-extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1-km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed-scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed-scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States (n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national-scale categorization of snowmelt processes.

Development of a United States - Mexico emissions inventory for the Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hampden Kuhns; Eladio M. Knipping; Jeffrey M. Vukovich,

2005-05-01

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study investigated the sources of haze at Big Bend National Park in southwest Texas. The modeling domain includes most of the continental United States and Mexico. The BRAVO emissions inventory was constructed from the 1999 National Emission Inventory for the United States, modified to include finer-resolution data for Texas and 13 U.S. states in close proximity. The inventory includes emissions for CO, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia, particulate matter (PM) {lt}10 {mu}m in aerodynamic diameter, and PM {lt}2.5 {mu}m in aerodynamic diameter. The SMOKE modeling system wasmore » used to generate gridded emissions fields for use with the Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model modified with the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization and Dissolution (CMAQ-MADRID). The compilation of the inventory, supporting model input data, and issues encountered during the development of the inventory are documented. A comparison of the BRAVO emissions inventory for Mexico with other emerging Mexican emission inventories illustrates their uncertainty. 65 refs., 4 figs., 9 tabs.« less

USGS Geospatial Fabric and Geo Data Portal for Continental Scale Hydrology Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, K. M.; Newman, A. J.; Blodgett, D. L.; Viger, R.; Hay, L.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

This presentation describes use of United States Geological Survey (USGS) data products and server-based resources for continental-scale hydrologic simulations. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group provides a consistent national geospatial fabric built on NHDPlus. They have defined more than 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRUs) over the continental United States based on points of interest (POIs) and split into left and right bank based on the corresponding stream segment. Geophysical attributes are calculated for each HRU that can be used to define parameters in hydrologic and land-surface models. The Geo Data Portal (GDP) project at the USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) provides access to downscaled climate datasets and processing services via web-interface and python modules for creating forcing datasets for any polygon (such as an HRU). These resources greatly reduce the labor required for creating model-ready data in-house, contributing to efficient and effective modeling applications. We will present an application of this USGS cyber-infrastructure for assessments of impacts of climate change on hydrology over the continental United States.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

Guidelines for model calibration and application to flow simulation in the Death Valley regional groundwater system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.

2000-01-01

Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.

Information Access in Rural Areas of the United States: The Public Library's Role in the Digital Divide and the Implications of Differing State Funding Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thiele, Jennifer

2016-01-01

In the United States, individual states have different means of determining and distributing funding. This influences library service and access to information particularly as it pertains to critical Internet access. Funding and service trends have changed, especially as it relates to public libraries, with some modifications working to their…

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.

PubMed

Monaghan, Andrew J; Moore, Sean M; Sampson, Kevin M; Beard, Charles B; Eisen, Rebecca J

2015-07-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of ...

Sociocultural Comparison of Bilingual Education Policies and Programmes in Three Andean Countries and the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minaya-Rowe, Liliana

1986-01-01

Presents a model of the sociocultural circumstances surrounding the development of language policies and planning and of bilingual education programs in the United States and three Andean countries: Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador. (Author/CB)

Selection by Certification: A Neglected Variable in Stratification Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faia, Michael A.

1981-01-01

Reviews literature on status attainment, with emphasis on the relationship between status and education in the United States. Concludes that the status attainment process in the United States may depart substantially from the rational choice model favored by human capital theory. (DB)

THE EFFECT OF CHLORINE EMISSIONS ON TROPOSPHERIC OZONE IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The effect of chlorine emissions on atmospheric ozone in the continental United States was evaluated. Atmospheric chlorine chemistry was combined with the carbon bond mechanism and incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Sources of chlorine included anthrop...

SEASONAL MODELING OF THE EXPORT OF POLLUTANTS FROM NORTH AMERICA USING THE MULTI-SCALE AIR QUALITY SIMULATION PLATFORM (MAQSIP)

EPA Science Inventory

Attention in recent years has focused on the trans-boundary transport of ozone and fine particulate matte between the United States and Mexico and Canada and across state boundaries in the United States. In a similar manner, but on a larger spatial scale, the export of pollutant...

Metals Fate And Transport Modelling In Streams And Watersheds: State Of The Science And USEPA Workshop Review

EPA Science Inventory

Metals pollution in surface waters from point and non-point sources (NPS) is a widespread problem in the United States and worldwide (Lofts et al., 2007; USEPA, 2007). In the western United States, metals associated with acid mine drainage (AMD) from hardrock mines in mou...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

Integrating Forage, Wildlife, Water, and Fish Projections with Timber Projections at the Regional Level: A Case Study in Southern United States

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Curtis H. Flather; Patricia A. Flebbe; Thomas W. Hoekstra; Stan J. Ursic

1990-01-01

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with...

Modelling the potential role of forest thinning in maintaining water supplies under a changing climate across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty

2015-01-01

The goal of this study was to test the sensitivity of water yield to forest thinning and other forest management/disturbances and climate across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Leaf area index (LAI) was selected as a key parameter linking changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions. We used the Water Supply Stress Index model to examine water yield...

Mexican Influence on Contemporary Art and Architecture of the United States: A Model Lesson for Cross Cultural Understanding at the Secondary Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finer, Neal

In this model lesson, secondary students test the hypothesis that Mexican achievements have widely influenced art and architecture in the United States as a result of the cultural flow and exchange between the two nations. The lesson is designed to be presented in two to three class periods. To determine the validity of the hypothesis, students…

The future of housing in the United States: an econometric model of long-term predictions for the 2000 RPA timber assessment.

Treesearch

Claire A. Montgomery

2001-01-01

This report presents historical trends and future projections of forest, agricultural, and urban and other land uses for the South-Central United States. A land use share model is used to investigate the relation between the areas of land in alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Two different versions of the empirical...

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Modelo Crosscultural de Pasantias para Lideres de la Educacion: Cooperacion entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela (Designing an Effective School Administrator Internship Program: United States and Venezuela Cooperation).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serafin, Ana Gil; Thompson, Eugene W.

A model was developed of an internship program designed to give valuable cross-cultural experience to school administrators in training at universities in the United States and Venezuela. A naturalistic approach was used to develop the model. Leading school administrators and educational leadership theorists in both countries were interviewed by…

Modeling browse impacts on sapling and tree recruitment across forests in the northern United States

Treesearch

Matthew B. Russell; James A. Westfall; Christopher W. Woodall

2017-01-01

Understanding the patterns of tree recruitment is essential to quantifying the future health and productivity of forest ecosystems. Using national forest inventory information, we incorporated browse impact measurements into models of sapling (2.5–12.7 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) and overstory tree (≥12.7 cm DBH) ingrowth across the northern United States....

Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapek

2008-01-01

A modeling experiment was designed to investigate the impact of fire management, CO2 emission rate, and the growth response to CO2 on the response of ecosystems in the conterminous United States to climate scenarios produced by three different general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated by the MCl Dynamic General...

A review of the potential effects of climate change on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the Western United States and a new tool for surveying sudden aspen decline

Treesearch

Toni Lyn Morelli; Susan C. Carr

2011-01-01

We conducted a literature review of the effects of climate on the distribution and growth of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the Western United States. Based on our review, we summarize models of historical climate determinants of contemporary aspen distribution. Most quantitative climate-based models linked aspen presence and growth...

The Model U.N. Program: Teaching Unreality. A United Nations Assessment Project Study. The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 282.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gulick, Thomas G.; Merkle, Melanie L.

An evaluation of the instructional materials used by high school and college students who participated in the Model United Nations Program showed that the program is uncritical of the United Nations (U.N.) and biased against the United States and the West in general. These materials are strongly promoted by many prominent educational professional…

Elementary Teacher Training Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blewett, Evelyn J., Ed.

This collection of articles contains descriptions of nine elementary teacher training program models conducted at universities throughout the United States. The articles include the following: (a) "The University of Toledo Model Program," by George E. Dickson; (b) "The Florida State University Model Program," by G. Wesley Sowards; (c) "The…

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approxim...

Predicting SOA from organic nitrates in the southeastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

Organic nitrates have been identified as an important component of ambient aerosol in the Southeast United States. In this work, we use the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to explore the relationship between gas-phase production of organic nitrates and their subsequ...

Five Models for European Security: Implications for the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

tripolar concept of security. It is the product of Europeans’ search for a third way between the United States and the former Soviet Union-in part to...distinguish the five systems from each other are reasonably clear (ad hoc, bipolar, tripolar , multi-polar collective, and overlapping), there is room...based on a tripolar concept of security. It is the product of Europeans’ search for a third way between the United States and the former Soviet Union-in

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Kistler, M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Where are the food animal veterinarian shortage areas anyway?

PubMed

Wang, Tong; Hennessy, David A; O'Connor, Annette M

2012-05-01

In 2010 the United States implemented the Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program (VMLRP) to address perceived regional shortages in certain veterinary occupations, including food animal practice. With county as the unit of analysis, this paper describes a pair of models to evaluate factors associated with being designated a private practice shortage area in 2010. One model is used to explain food animal veterinarian location choices so as to provide an objective evaluation of comparative shortage. The other model seeks to explain the counties chosen as shortage areas. Model results are then used to evaluate the program. On the whole the program appears to perform quite well. For several states, however, VMLRP shortage designations are inconsistent with the food animal veterinarian location model. Comparative shortage is generally more severe in states that have no VMLRP designated private practice shortage counties than in states that do. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a transient, lumped hydrologic model for geomorphologic units in a geomorphology based rainfall-runoff modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannametee, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Hendriks, M. R.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2010-05-01

We propose a modelling framework for distributed hydrological modelling of 103-105 km2 catchments by discretizing the catchment in geomorphologic units. Each of these units is modelled using a lumped model representative for the processes in the unit. Here, we focus on the development and parameterization of this lumped model as a component of our framework. The development of the lumped model requires rainfall-runoff data for an extensive set of geomorphological units. Because such large observational data sets do not exist, we create artificial data. With a high-resolution, physically-based, rainfall-runoff model, we create artificial rainfall events and resulting hydrographs for an extensive set of different geomorphological units. This data set is used to identify the lumped model of geomorphologic units. The advantage of this approach is that it results in a lumped model with a physical basis, with representative parameters that can be derived from point-scale measurable physical parameters. The approach starts with the development of the high-resolution rainfall-runoff model that generates an artificial discharge dataset from rainfall inputs as a surrogate of a real-world dataset. The model is run for approximately 105 scenarios that describe different characteristics of rainfall, properties of the geomorphologic units (i.e. slope gradient, unit length and regolith properties), antecedent moisture conditions and flow patterns. For each scenario-run, the results of the high-resolution model (i.e. runoff and state variables) at selected simulation time steps are stored in a database. The second step is to develop the lumped model of a geomorphological unit. This forward model consists of a set of simple equations that calculate Hortonian runoff and state variables of the geomorphologic unit over time. The lumped model contains only three parameters: a ponding factor, a linear reservoir parameter, and a lag time. The model is capable of giving an appropriate representation of the transient rainfall-runoff relations that exist in the artificial data set generated with the high-resolution model. The third step is to find the values of empirical parameters in the lumped forward model using the artificial dataset. For each scenario of the high-resolution model run, a set of lumped model parameters is determined with a fitting method using the corresponding time series of state variables and outputs retrieved from the database. Thus, the parameters in the lumped model can be estimated by using the artificial data set. The fourth step is to develop an approach to assign lumped model parameters based upon the properties of the geomorphological unit. This is done by finding relationships between the measurable physical properties of geomorphologic units (i.e. slope gradient, unit length, and regolith properties) and the lumped forward model parameters using multiple regression techniques. In this way, a set of lumped forward model parameters can be estimated as a function of morphology and physical properties of the geomorphologic units. The lumped forward model can then be applied to different geomorphologic units. Finally, the performance of the lumped forward model is evaluated; the outputs of the lumped forward model are compared with the results of the high-resolution model. Our results show that the lumped forward model gives the best estimates of total discharge volumes and peak discharges when rain intensities are not significantly larger than the infiltration capacities of the units and when the units are small with a flat gradient. Hydrograph shapes are fairly well reproduced for most cases except for flat and elongated units with large runoff volumes. The results of this study provide a first step towards developing low-dimensional models for large ungauged basins.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

The increasing importance of small-scale forestry: evidence from family forest ownership patterns in the United States

Treesearch

Y. Zhang; X. Liao; B.J. Butler; J. Schelhas

2009-01-01

The state-level distribution of the size of family forest holdings in the contiguous United States was examined using data collected by the USDA Forest Service in 1993 and 2003. Regressions models were used to analyze the factors influencing the mean size and structural variation among states and between the two periods. Population density, percent of the population at...

Inhibitory control in mind and brain 2.0: Blocked-input models of saccadic countermanding

PubMed Central

Logan, Gordon D.; Yamaguchi, Motonori; Schall, Jeffrey D.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

The interactive race model of saccadic countermanding assumes that response inhibition results from an interaction between a go unit, identified with gaze-shifting neurons, and a stop unit, identified with gaze-holding neurons, in which activation of the stop unit inhibits the growth of activation in the go unit to prevent it from reaching threshold. The interactive race model accounts for behavioral data and predicts physiological data in monkeys performing the stop-signal task. We propose an alternative model that assumes that response inhibition results from blocking the input to the go unit. We show that the blocked-input model accounts for behavioral data as accurately as the original interactive race model and predicts aspects of the physiological data more accurately. We extend the models to address the steady-state fixation period before the go stimulus is presented and find that the blocked-input model fits better than the interactive race model. We consider a model in which fixation activity is boosted when a stop signal occurs and find that it fits as well as the blocked input model but predicts very high steady-state fixation activity after the response is inhibited. We discuss the alternative linking propositions that connect computational models to neural mechanisms, the lessons to be learned from model mimicry, and generalization from countermanding saccades to countermanding other kinds of responses. PMID:25706403

Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnett, T.P.; Pierce, D.W.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Das, T.; Bala, G.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.; Mirin, A.A.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

SPARROW MODELING - Enhancing Understanding of the Nation's Water Quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, Stephen D.; Alexander, Richard B.; Woodside, Michael D.; Hamilton, Pixie A.

2009-01-01

The information provided here is intended to assist water-resources managers with interpretation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SPARROW model and its products. SPARROW models can be used to explain spatial patterns in monitored stream-water quality in relation to human activities and natural processes as defined by detailed geospatial information. Previous SPARROW applications have identified the sources and transport of nutrients in the Mississippi River basin, Chesapeake Bay watershed, and other major drainages of the United States. New SPARROW models with improved accuracy and interpretability are now being developed by the USGS National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program for six major regions of the conterminous United States. These new SPARROW models are based on updated geospatial data and stream-monitoring records from local, State, and other federal agencies.

Review: Regional groundwater flow modeling in heavily irrigated basins of selected states in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossman, Nathan R.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2013-09-01

Water resources in agriculture-dominated basins of the arid western United States are stressed due to long-term impacts from pumping. A review of 88 regional groundwater-flow modeling applications from seven intensively irrigated western states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas) was conducted to provide hydrogeologists, modelers, water managers, and decision makers insight about past modeling studies that will aid future model development. Groundwater models were classified into three types: resource evaluation models (39 %), which quantify water budgets and act as preliminary models intended to be updated later, or constitute re-calibrations of older models; management/planning models (55 %), used to explore and identify management plans based on the response of the groundwater system to water-development or climate scenarios, sometimes under water-use constraints; and water rights models (7 %), used to make water administration decisions based on model output and to quantify water shortages incurred by water users or climate changes. Results for 27 model characteristics are summarized by state and model type, and important comparisons and contrasts are highlighted. Consideration of modeling uncertainty and the management focus toward sustainability, adaptive management and resilience are discussed, and future modeling recommendations, in light of the reviewed models and other published works, are presented.

Using the Model United Nations as a Teaching Tool.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efird, L. Julian

This document provides a description of the Model United Nations (MUN) program, its educational benefits, an overview of its practice within the United States, and outlines methods for using the MUN as a teaching tool. A total of 72 MUNs involving high school and college students was reported in 1977-78. As a simulation, the MUN provides…

Patent and Trademark Depository Libraries and the United States Patent and Trademark Office: A Model for Information Dissemination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenda, Claudine Arnold

2005-01-01

This paper describes the network of Patent and Trademark Depository Libraries (PTDLs), a collaborative partnership with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) for disseminating patent and trademark information in every state plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Typical information sources and services provided at PTDLs are…

The Core Curricula of Information Systems Undergraduate Programs: A Survey of AACSB-Accredited Colleges in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Samuel C.

2016-01-01

The author examines the present state of information systems undergraduate programs in the United States. He reviewed 516 institutions and collected data on 234 institutions offering information systems (IS) undergraduate programs. Of seven core courses required by the IS 2010 curriculum model, four are required by more than 50% of the programs,…

Developing Statistical Models to Assess Transplant Outcomes Using National Registries: The Process in the United States.

PubMed

Snyder, Jon J; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kim, S Joseph; Zaun, David; Xiong, Hui; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bertram L

2016-02-01

Created by the US National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) is obligated to publicly report data on transplant program and organ procurement organization performance in the United States. These reports include risk-adjusted assessments of graft and patient survival, and programs performing worse or better than expected are identified. The SRTR currently maintains 43 risk adjustment models for assessing posttransplant patient and graft survival and, in collaboration with the SRTR Technical Advisory Committee, has developed and implemented a new systematic process for model evaluation and revision. Patient cohorts for the risk adjustment models are identified, and single-organ and multiorgan transplants are defined, then each risk adjustment model is developed following a prespecified set of steps. Model performance is assessed, the model is refit to a more recent cohort before each evaluation cycle, and then it is applied to the evaluation cohort. The field of solid organ transplantation is unique in the breadth of the standardized data that are collected. These data allow for quality assessment across all transplant providers in the United States. A standardized process of risk model development using data from national registries may enhance the field.

Adaptive control system having hedge unit and related apparatus and methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric Norman (Inventor); Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

The invention includes an adaptive control system used to control a plant. The adaptive control system includes a hedge unit that receives at least one control signal and a plant state signal. The hedge unit generates a hedge signal based on the control signal, the plant state signal, and a hedge model including a first model having one or more characteristics to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt, and a second model not having the characteristic(s) to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt. The hedge signal is used in the adaptive control system to remove the effect of the characteristic from a signal supplied to an adaptation law unit of the adaptive control system so that the adaptive control system does not adapt to the characteristic in controlling the plant.

Elementary Schools in Rural Honduras. Problems in Exporting Environmental Education Models from the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ham, Sam H.; Castillo, Lizeth

1990-01-01

Presented is a study designed to determine the best approaches for developing environmental education and teacher training materials for schools in Honduras. Results dispute the value of materials produced in the United States for use in developing nations. (CW)

Comprehensive trends assessment of nitrogen sources and loads to estuaries of the coterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Sources of nitrogen and phosphorus to estuaries and estuarine watersheds of the coterminous United States have been compiled from a variety of publically available data sources (1985 – 2015). Atmospheric loading was obtained from two sources. Modelled and interpolated meas...

Air pollution removal by urban trees and shrubs in the United States

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane; Jack C. Stevens

2006-01-01

A modeling study using hourly meteorological and pollution concentration data from across the coterminous United States demonstrates that urban trees remove large amounts of air pollution that consequently improve urban air quality. Pollution removal (03, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO)...

Integrated modeling of pesticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

Pesticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. Scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of pesticides and the risk those pesticides pose to the environment and non-target wildlife. We p...

FATE AND TRANSPORT OF EMISSIONS FOR SEVERAL TRACE METALS OVER THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

A regional model for atmospheric photochemistry and particulate matter is used to predict the fate and transport of five trace metals: lead, manganese, total chromium, nickel, and cadmium over the continental United States during January and July 2001. Predicted concentrations of...

Exploring a United States Maize Cellulose Biofuel Scenario Using an Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets Solution Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Biofuel feedstock production in the United States (US) is an emergent environmental nutrient management issue, whose exploration can benefit from a multi-scale and multimedia systems modeling approach that explicitly addresses diverging stakeholder interests. In the present anal...

Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

Direct Broadcasting Satellite in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Haeryon

The introduction of Direct Broadcasting Satellites (DBS) in the United States sparked both government's regulatory development of domestic DBS services and the communication industry's efforts to implement a commercial DBS system. J. D. Slack's symptomatic causality and technological assessment models help to explain how these practices were…

Quantifying Power Grid Risk from Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homeier, N.; Wei, L. H.; Gannon, J. L.

2012-12-01

We are creating a statistical model of the geophysical environment that can be used to quantify the geomagnetic storm hazard to power grid infrastructure. Our model is developed using a database of surface electric fields for the continental United States during a set of historical geomagnetic storms. These electric fields are derived from the SUPERMAG compilation of worldwide magnetometer data and surface impedances from the United States Geological Survey. This electric field data can be combined with a power grid model to determine GICs per node and reactive MVARs at each minute during a storm. Using publicly available substation locations, we derive relative risk maps by location by combining magnetic latitude and ground conductivity. We also estimate the surface electric fields during the August 1972 geomagnetic storm that caused a telephone cable outage across the middle of the United States. This event produced the largest surface electric fields in the continental U.S. in at least the past 40 years.

Streamflow characterization using functional data analysis of the Potomac River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelmanow, A.; Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.

2013-12-01

Flooding and droughts are extreme hydrological events that affect the United States economically and socially. The severity and unpredictability of flooding has caused billions of dollars in damage and the loss of lives in the eastern United States. In this context, there is an urgent need to build a firm scientific basis for adaptation by developing and applying new modeling techniques for accurate streamflow characterization and reliable hydrological forecasting. The goal of this analysis is to use numerical streamflow characteristics in order to classify, model, and estimate the likelihood of extreme events in the eastern United States, mainly the Potomac River. Functional data analysis techniques are used to study yearly streamflow patterns, with the extreme streamflow events characterized via functional principal component analysis. These methods are merged with more classical techniques such as cluster analysis, classification analysis, and time series modeling. The developed functional data analysis approach is used to model continuous streamflow hydrographs. The forecasting potential of this technique is explored by incorporating climate factors to produce a yearly streamflow outlook.

Factor Structure and Psychometric Properties of English and Spanish Versions of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale Among Hispanic Women in a Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Hartley, Chelsey M.; Barroso, Nicole; Rey, Yasmin; Pettit, Jeremy W.; Bagner, Daniel M.

2015-01-01

Background Although a number of studies have examined the factor structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in predominately White or African American samples, no published research has reported on the factor structure among Hispanic women who reside in the United States. Objective The current study examined the factor structure of the EPDS among Hispanic mothers in the United States. Method Among 220 Hispanic women, drawn from a pediatric primary care setting, with an infant aged 0 to 10 months, 6 structural models guided by the empirical literature were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis. Results Results supported a 2-factor model of depression and anxiety as the best fitting model. Multigroup models supported the factorial invariance across women who completed the EDPS in English and Spanish. Conclusion These findings provide initial support for the 2-factor structure of the EPDS among Hispanic women in the United States. PMID:24807217

Factor structure and psychometric properties of english and spanish versions of the edinburgh postnatal depression scale among Hispanic women in a primary care setting.

PubMed

Hartley, Chelsey M; Barroso, Nicole; Rey, Yasmin; Pettit, Jeremy W; Bagner, Daniel M

2014-12-01

Although a number of studies have examined the factor structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in predominately White or African American samples, no published research has reported on the factor structure among Hispanic women who reside in the United States. The current study examined the factor structure of the EPDS among Hispanic mothers in the United States. Among 220 Hispanic women, drawn from a pediatric primary care setting, with an infant aged 0 to 10 months, 6 structural models guided by the empirical literature were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis. Results supported a 2-factor model of depression and anxiety as the best fitting model. Multigroup models supported the factorial invariance across women who completed the EDPS in English and Spanish. These findings provide initial support for the 2-factor structure of the EPDS among Hispanic women in the United States. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Oral Health Care for Children in Countries Using Dental Therapists in Public, School-Based Programs, Contrasted with That of the United States, Using Dentists in a Private Practice Model

PubMed Central

Friedman, Jay W.; Nash, David A.

2013-01-01

The United States faces a significant problem with access to oral health care, particularly for children. More than 50 countries have developed an alternative dental provider, a dental therapist, practicing in public, school-based programs, to address children’s access to care. This delivery model has been demonstrated to improve access to care and oral health outcomes while providing quality care economically. We summarize elements of a recent major review of the global literature on the use of dental therapists, “A Review of the Global Literature on Dental Therapists: In the Context of the Movement to Add Dental Therapists to the Oral Health Workforce in the United States.” We contrast the success of a school-based model of caring for children by dental therapists with that of the US model of dentists providing care for children in private practices. PMID:23865650

Fault tolerant system with imperfect coverage, reboot and server vacation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Madhu; Meena, Rakesh Kumar

2017-06-01

This study is concerned with the performance modeling of a fault tolerant system consisting of operating units supported by a combination of warm and cold spares. The on-line as well as warm standby units are subject to failures and are send for the repair to a repair facility having single repairman which is prone to failure. If the failed unit is not detected, the system enters into an unsafe state from which it is cleared by the reboot and recovery action. The server is allowed to go for vacation if there is no failed unit present in the system. Markov model is developed to obtain the transient probabilities associated with the system states. Runge-Kutta method is used to evaluate the system state probabilities and queueing measures. To explore the sensitivity and cost associated with the system, numerical simulation is conducted.

Gauging interest of the general public in laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis eye surgery.

PubMed

Stein, Joshua D; Childers, David M; Nan, Bin; Mian, Shahzad I

2013-07-01

To assess interest among members of the general public in laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) surgery and how levels of interest in this procedure have changed over time in the United States and other countries. Using the Google Trends Web site, we determined the weekly frequency of queries involving the term "LASIK" from January 1, 2007, through January 1, 2011, in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and India. We fit separate regression models for each of the countries to assess whether residents of these countries differed in their querying rates on specific dates and over time. Similar analyses were performed to compare 4 US states. Additional regression models compared general public interest in LASIK surgery before and after the release of a 2008 Food and Drug Administration report describing complaints associated with this procedure. During 2007 to 2011, the Google query rate for "LASIK" was highest among persons residing in India, followed by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. During this time period, the query rate declined by 40% in the United States, 24% in India, and 22% in the United Kingdom, and it increased by 8% in Canada. In all 4 of the US states examined, the query rate declined-by 52% in Florida, 56% in New York, 54% in Texas, and 42% in California. Interest in LASIK declined further among US citizens after the Food and Drug Administration report release. Interest among the general public in LASIK surgery has been waning in recent years.

Aging in the Americas: Disability-free Life Expectancy Among Adults Aged 65 and Older in the United States, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Payne, Collin F

2018-01-11

To estimate and compare disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and current age patterns of disability onset and recovery from disability between the United States and countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Disability is measured using the activities of daily living scale. Data come from longitudinal surveys of older adult populations in Costa Rica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States. Age patterns of transitions in and out of disability are modeled with a discrete-time logistic hazard model, and a microsimulation approach is used to estimate DFLE. Overall life expectancy for women aged 65 is 20.11 years in Costa Rica, 19.2 years in Mexico, 20.4 years in Puerto Rico, and 20.5 years in the United States. For men, these figures are 19.0 years in Costa Rica, 18.4 years in Mexico, 18.1 years in Puerto Rico, and 18.1 years in the United States. Proportion of remaining life spent free of disability for women at age 65 is comparable between Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States, with Costa Rica trailing slightly. Male estimates of DFLE are similar across the four populations. Though the older adult population of Latin America and the Caribbean lived many years exposed to poor epidemiological and public health conditions, their functional health in later life is comparable with the older adult population of the United States. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Economic opportunity in Mexico and return migration from the United States.

PubMed

Lindstrom, D P

1996-08-01

I analyze the influence of the economic characteristics of origin area on trip duration for Mexican migrants in the United States. I argue that migrants from economically dynamic areas in Mexico with favorable opportunities for employment and small capital investment have a larger incentive to stay in the United States longer and to withstand the psychic costs of separation from family and friends than do migrants from economically stagnant areas in Mexico, where the productive uses of savings are severely limited. In line with this argument we should expect investment opportunities in migrants' origin areas to be associated positively with migrants' trip duration in the United States. To test this hypothesis I use individual- and household-level data on U.S. migration experience collected in 13 Mexican communities. Evidence from parametric hazards models supports the idea that economic characteristics of origin areas influence the motivations and strategies of Mexican migrants in the United States.

Angular motion estimation using dynamic models in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit.

PubMed

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters.

Angular Motion Estimation Using Dynamic Models in a Gyro-Free Inertial Measurement Unit

PubMed Central

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters. PMID:22778586

Groundwater and surface water scaling over the continental US using a hyperresolution, integrated hydrologic model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2014-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

The impact of reforestation in the northeast United States on precipitation and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Allyson

Since the 1920s, forest coverage in the northeastern United States has recovered from disease, clearing for agricultural and urban development, and the demands of the timber industry. Such a dramatic change in ground cover can influence heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, as measured in altered landscapes in Australia, Israel, and the Amazon. In this study, the impacts of recent reforestation in the northeastern United States on summertime precipitation and surface temperature were quantified by comparing average modern values to 1950s values. Weak positive (negative) relationships between reforestation and average monthly precipitation and daily minimum temperatures (average daily maximum surface temperature) were found. There was no relationship between reforestation and average surface temperature. Results of the observational analysis were compared with results obtained from reforestation scenarios simulated with the BUGS5 global climate model. The single difference between the model runs was the amount of forest coverage in the northeast United States; three levels of forest were defined - a grassland state, with 0% forest coverage, a completely forested state, with approximately 100% forest coverage, and a control state, with forest coverage closely resembling modern forest coverage. The three simulations were compared, and had larger magnitude average changes in precipitation and in all temperature variables. The difference in magnitudes between the model simulations observations was much larger than the difference in the amount of reforestation in each case. Additionally, unlike in observations, a negative relationship was found between average daily minimum temperature and amount of forest coverage, implying that additional factors influence temperature and precipitation in the real world that are not accounted for in the model.

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Source-receptor reconciliation of fine-particulate emissions from residential wood combustion in the southeastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

An extensive collection of speciated PM2.5 measurements including organic tracers permitted a detailed examination of the emissions from residential wood combustion (RWC) in the southeastern United States over an entire year (2007). The Community Multiscale Air Quality model-base...

The Contribution of Marine Organics to the Air Quality of the Western United States

EPA Science Inventory

The contribution of marine organic emissions to the air quality in coastal areas of the western United States is studied using the latest version of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regional-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQv4.7) modeling system. Emissions ...

Preferred Styles of Conflict Resolution. Mexico and the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gabrielidis, Cristina; Stephan, Walter G.; Ybarra, Oscar; Pearson, Virginia Dos Santos; Villareal, Lucila

1997-01-01

Examined cultural differences in preferences for conflict resolution styles using the dual-concern model with 103 college students in Mexico (collectivistic culture) and 91 college students in the United States (individualistic culture). Results suggest that independence of the self and interdependence of the self may be separate dimensions,…

Nonstandard Employment in the Nonmetropolitan United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLaughlin, Diane K.; Coleman-Jensen, Alisha J.

2008-01-01

We examine the prevalence of nonstandard employment in the nonmetropolitan United States using the Current Population Survey Supplement on Contingent Work (1999 and 2001). We find that nonstandard work is more prevalent in nonmetropolitan than in central city or suburban areas. Logistic regression models controlling for sociodemographic and work…

Exporting U.S. CTE Goods and Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fretwell, David

2009-01-01

The United States needs to develop and implement systematic programs to market Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) models internationally--the way other nations have. The short- and long-term social, political and economic implications for the United States are considerable, including the acquisition of new knowledge to improve…

SURFACE AND LIGHTNING SOURCES OF NITROGEN OXIDES OVER THE UNITED STATES: MAGNITUDES, CHEMICAL EVOLUTION, AND OUTFLOW

EPA Science Inventory

We use observations from two aircraft during the ICARTT campaign over the eastern United States and North Atlantic during summer 2004, interpreted with a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem) to test current understanding of regional sources, chemical evolution...

Estimation of wind erosion from construction of a railway in arid northwest China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A state-of-the-art wind erosion simulation model, the Wind Erosion Prediction System and the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s AP-42 emission factors formula, were combined together to evaluate wind-blown dust emissions from various construction units from a railway construction projec...

School-Based Character Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Brian H.

2013-01-01

Character education has been a part of schooling in the United States since the early years of its public education system. Starting with a religious emphasis on moral development, character education eventually transformed into more secular approaches, like the values clarification model, character word-of-the-month approach, performance…

ESTIMATING GROUND LEVEL PM 2.5 IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

EPA Science Inventory

An empirical model based on the regression between daily average final particle (PM2.5) concentrations and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was developed and tested using data from the eastern United States during ...

Sensitivity of Ambient Atmospheric Formaldehyde and Ozone to Precursor Species and Source Types Across the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important air pollutant from both an atmospheric chemistry and human health standpoint. This study uses an instrumented photochemical Air Quality Model, CMAQ-DDM, to identify the sensitivity of HCHO concentrations across the United States (U.S.) to major...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Merchantable sawlog and bole-length equations for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Daniel A. Yaussy; Martin E. Dale; Martin E. Dale

1991-01-01

A modified Richards growth model is used to develop species-specific coefficients for equations estimating the merchantable sawlog and bole lengths of trees from 25 species groups common to the Northeastern United States. These regression coefficients have been incorporated into the growth-and-yield simulation software, NE-TWIGS.

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference scenario and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat ...

Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Hahn, Micah B; Monaghan, Andrew J; Hayden, Mary H; Eisen, Rebecca J; Delorey, Mark J; Lindsey, Nicole P; Nasci, Roger S; Fischer, Marc

2015-05-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hossain, Q; Kimball, J; Mensing, R

A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States (CONUS) is described. The model incorporates both aleatory (random) and epistemic uncertainties associated with quantifying the tornado wind hazard parameters. The temporal occurrences of tornadoes within the continental United States (CONUS) is assumed to be a Poisson process. A spatial distribution of tornado touchdown locations is developed empirically based on the observed historical events within the CONUS. The hazard model is an aerial probability model that takes into consideration the size and orientation of the facility, the length and width of the tornado damage area (idealized as a rectanglemore » and dependent on the tornado intensity scale), wind speed variation within the damage area, tornado intensity classification errors (i.e.,errors in assigning a Fujita intensity scale based on surveyed damage), and the tornado path direction. Epistemic uncertainties in describing the distributions of the aleatory variables are accounted for by using more than one distribution model to describe aleatory variations. The epistemic uncertainties are based on inputs from a panel of experts. A computer program, TORNADO, has been developed incorporating this model; features of this program are also presented.« less

Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naeger, Aaron R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Creamean, Jessie M.

2015-01-01

Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF-Chem model simulations. After validating the capability of the WRF-Chem in realistically simulating the aerosol-cloud precipitation interactions, we conduct sensitivity studies where the AOD is doubled to diagnose whether an increasing concentration of Asian aerosols over the western United States will lead to further impacts on the cloud and precipitation processes over California. We also perform sensitivity studies where the aerosols will be partitioned into dust-only and pollution-only in order to separate the impacts of the differing Asian aerosol species. The results of our WRF-Chem model simulations aim to show that the trans-Pacific transport of Asian aerosols influence the precipitation associated with atmospheric river events that can ultimately impact the regional climate of the western United States. 1 University

Modeling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, for the contiguous United States using predictive ecological [corrected] niche modeling.

PubMed

Blackburn, Jason K; McNyset, Kristina M; Curtis, Andrew; Hugh-Jones, Martin E

2007-12-01

The ecology and distribution of Bacillus anthracis is poorly understood despite continued anthrax outbreaks in wildlife and livestock throughout the United States. Little work is available to define the potential environments that may lead to prolonged spore survival and subsequent outbreaks. This study used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system to model the ecological niche for B. anthracis in the contiguous United States using wildlife and livestock outbreaks and several environmental variables. The modeled niche is defined by a narrow range of normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, and elevation, with the geographic distribution heavily concentrated in a narrow corridor from southwest Texas northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Because disease control programs rely on vaccination and carcass disposal, and vaccination in wildlife remains untenable, understanding the distribution of B. anthracis plays an important role in efforts to prevent/eradicate the disease. Likewise, these results potentially aid in differentiating endemic/natural outbreaks from industrial-contamination related outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks.

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinez, A.; Eurek, K.; Mai, T.

2013-02-01

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact ofmore » variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.« less

A Hierarchical Framework for State-Space Matrix Inference and Clustering.

PubMed

Zuo, Chandler; Chen, Kailei; Hewitt, Kyle J; Bresnick, Emery H; Keleş, Sündüz

2016-09-01

In recent years, a large number of genomic and epigenomic studies have been focusing on the integrative analysis of multiple experimental datasets measured over a large number of observational units. The objectives of such studies include not only inferring a hidden state of activity for each unit over individual experiments, but also detecting highly associated clusters of units based on their inferred states. Although there are a number of methods tailored for specific datasets, there is currently no state-of-the-art modeling framework for this general class of problems. In this paper, we develop the MBASIC ( M atrix B ased A nalysis for S tate-space I nference and C lustering) framework. MBASIC consists of two parts: state-space mapping and state-space clustering. In state-space mapping, it maps observations onto a finite state-space, representing the activation states of units across conditions. In state-space clustering, MBASIC incorporates a finite mixture model to cluster the units based on their inferred state-space profiles across all conditions. Both the state-space mapping and clustering can be simultaneously estimated through an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. MBASIC flexibly adapts to a large number of parametric distributions for the observed data, as well as the heterogeneity in replicate experiments. It allows for imposing structural assumptions on each cluster, and enables model selection using information criterion. In our data-driven simulation studies, MBASIC showed significant accuracy in recovering both the underlying state-space variables and clustering structures. We applied MBASIC to two genome research problems using large numbers of datasets from the ENCODE project. The first application grouped genes based on transcription factor occupancy profiles of their promoter regions in two different cell types. The second application focused on identifying groups of loci that are similar to a GATA2 binding site that is functional at its endogenous locus by utilizing transcription factor occupancy data and illustrated applicability of MBASIC in a wide variety of problems. In both studies, MBASIC showed higher levels of raw data fidelity than analyzing these data with a two-step approach using ENCODE results on transcription factor occupancy data.

Cost calculator methods for estimating casework time in child welfare services: A promising approach for use in implementation of evidence-based practices and other service innovations.

PubMed

Holmes, Lisa; Landsverk, John; Ward, Harriet; Rolls-Reutz, Jennifer; Saldana, Lisa; Wulczyn, Fred; Chamberlain, Patricia

2014-04-01

Estimating costs in child welfare services is critical as new service models are incorporated into routine practice. This paper describes a unit costing estimation system developed in England (cost calculator) together with a pilot test of its utility in the United States where unit costs are routinely available for health services but not for child welfare services. The cost calculator approach uses a unified conceptual model that focuses on eight core child welfare processes. Comparison of these core processes in England and in four counties in the United States suggests that the underlying child welfare processes generated from England were perceived as very similar by child welfare staff in California county systems with some exceptions in the review and legal processes. Overall, the adaptation of the cost calculator for use in the United States child welfare systems appears promising. The paper also compares the cost calculator approach to the workload approach widely used in the United States and concludes that there are distinct differences between the two approaches with some possible advantages to the use of the cost calculator approach, especially in the use of this method for estimating child welfare costs in relation to the incorporation of evidence-based interventions into routine practice.

40 CFR Table 7 to Subpart Dddd of... - Model Rule-Emission Limitations That Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011 7 Table 7 to Subpart DDDD of Part 60 Protection of... Waste Incineration Units Pt. 60, Subpt. DDDD, Table 7 Table 7 to Subpart DDDD of Part 60—Model Rule—Emission Limitations That Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011 [Date to be specified in state...

40 CFR Table 7 to Subpart Dddd of... - Model Rule-Emission Limitations That Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011 7 Table 7 to Subpart DDDD of Part 60 Protection of... Waste Incineration Units Pt. 60, Subpt. DDDD, Table 7 Table 7 to Subpart DDDD of Part 60—Model Rule—Emission Limitations That Apply to Energy Recovery Units After May 20, 2011 [Date to be specified in state...

An Improved Maintenance Model for the Simulation of Strategic Airlift Capability.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

developed using SLAM as the primary simulation language. Maintenance manning is modeled at the Air Force Specialty Code level, to allow the possibility of...Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies is one of our primary national objectives, but recent increases in Soviet ground and air forces (Ref 5:100) have...arrive from the United States. Consequently, the primary objective of the United States Air Force mobility program is to be able, by 1982, to double the

EDMS - Microcomputer Pollution Model for civilian Airports and Air Force Bases: (User’s Guide),

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-01

exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for content or use thereof. The United States Government does not endorse products or...overwritten. As new issues of Mobile 4 are released, they will be incorporated into ElIS. The user shald check with the model issuer to determine what...Triangle Park, N.C.; June 1982 - May 1983 EPA 1985; Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors - Volume II: Mobile Sources; Environental Protection

Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Reinds, G J; Sullivan, T J; Clark, C M; Bonten, L T C; Mol-Dijkstra, J P; Wamelink, G W W; Dovciak, M

2018-03-01

Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE PAGES

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-11-15

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Is acculturation always adverse to Korean immigrant health in the United States?

PubMed

Ra, Chaelin Karen; Cho, Youngtae; Hummer, Robert A

2013-06-01

This study examined the association between individuals' proportion of life spent in the United States and the health status and health behaviors among Korean immigrants aged 25 and above. The analysis is stratified by level of education to test whether a higher proportion of time spent in the United States is associated with poorer health among both less educated and highly educated Korean immigrants. California health interview survey data from 2005 to 2007 were used to estimate logistic regression models of health and health behaviour among Korean immigrants, stratified by educational attainment. The health and health behaviour of less educated Korean immigrants tended to be worse among those with a higher proportion of residence in the United States. However, more highly educated Korean immigrants tended to exhibit lower odds of being unhealthy and lower odds of poor health behavior with a higher proportion of life spent in the United States. Acculturation is not always associated with poorer immigrant health outcomes. A higher proportion of life spent in the United States tends to be associated with more favorable health and health behavior among highly educated Korean immigrants.

This is my neighborhood: comparing United States and Australian Oxford House Neighborhoods.

PubMed

Ferrari, Joseph R; Jason, Leonard A; Blake, Ron; Davis, Margaret I; Olson, Bradley D

2006-01-01

The number of Oxford Houses, communal-living, mutual help settings for persons in recovery of alcohol and substance abuse, has spread across the United States and recently in and around Melbourne, Australia. In this study 55 US and 6 AU Houses were compared descriptively for their neighborhood characteristics. Across settings, there were greater similarities than significant differences in the locations. Results imply that Australian Oxford Houses are "safe and sober" settings for persons in recovery consistent with the original United States model in physical dwelling settings.

Magnetic models for the United States for 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peddie, Norman W.; Zunde, Audronis K.

1990-01-01

New models describing the magnetic field in the United States at the beginning of 1985 and the rate of change expected during the next few years have been developed. The models--which will serve as the basis for a new set of magnetic charts--were derived from several tens of thousands of original field measurements from land, marine, and aerial surveys; from values derived from the MAGSAT-based International Geomagnetic Reference Field; and from recent data from magnetic observatories and repeat stations. , They are in the form of spherical harmonic series that represent the scalar magnetic potential from which all the field components can be derived. The models for the conterminous States and Alaska are of maximum degree and order 4 (24 coefficients each) and the models for Hawaii are of maximum degree and order 2 (8 coefficients each).

Reforming Cardiovascular Care in the United States towards High-Quality Care at Lower Cost with Examples from Model Programs in the State of Michigan.

PubMed

Alyeshmerni, Daniel; Froehlich, James B; Lewin, Jack; Eagle, Kim A

2014-07-01

Despite its status as a world leader in treatment innovation and medical education, a quality chasm exists in American health care. Care fragmentation and poor coordination contribute to expensive care with highly variable quality in the United States. The rising costs of health care since 1990 have had a huge impact on individuals, families, businesses, the federal and state governments, and the national budget deficit. The passage of the Affordable Care Act represents a large shift in how health care is financed and delivered in the United States. The objective of this review is to describe some of the economic and social forces driving health care reform, provide an overview of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), and review model cardiovascular quality improvement programs underway in the state of Michigan. As health care reorganization occurs at the federal level, local and regional efforts can serve as models to accelerate improvement toward achieving better population health and better care at lower cost. Model programs in Michigan have achieved this goal in cardiovascular care through the systematic application of evidence-based care, the utilization of regional quality improvement collaboratives, community-based childhood wellness promotion, and medical device-based competitive bidding strategies. These efforts are examples of the direction cardiovascular care delivery will need to move in this era of the Affordable Care Act.

Estimating State-Specific Contributions to PM2.5- and O3-Related Health Burden from Residential Combustion and Electricity Generating Unit Emissions in the United States.

PubMed

Penn, Stefani L; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Woody, Matthew; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Tripodis, Yorghos; Levy, Jonathan I

2017-03-01

Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. In this study, we aimed to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental United States for 2005. We used the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the decoupled direct method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration-response functions to calculate associated health impacts. We estimated 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by sulfur dioxide emissions forming PM 2.5 . More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM 2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies. Citation: Penn SL, Arunachalam S, Woody M, Heiger-Bernays W, Tripodis Y, Levy JI. 2017. Estimating state-specific contributions to PM 2.5 - and O 3 -related health burden from residential combustion and electricity generating unit emissions in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:324-332; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP550.

Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Michael T. Hobbins; Jorge A. Ramirez

2008-01-01

Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter- Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The...

The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leu, M.; Hanser, S.E.; Knick, S.T.

2008-01-01

Anthropogenic features such as urbanization, roads, and power lines, are increasing in western United States landscapes in response to rapidly growing human populations. However, their spatial effects have not been evaluated. Our goal was to model the human footprint across the western United States. We first delineated the actual area occupied by anthropogenic features, the physical effect area. Next, we developed the human footprint model based on the ecological effect area, the zone influenced by features beyond their physical presence, by combining seven input models: three models quantified top-down anthropogenic influences of synanthropic predators (avian predators, domestic dog and cat presence risk), and four models quantified bottom-up anthropogenic influences on habitat (invasion of exotic plants, human-caused fires, energy extraction, and anthropogenic wildland fragmentation). Using independent bird population data, we found bird abundance of four synanthropic species to correlate positively with human footprint intensity and negatively for three of the six species influenced by habitat fragmentation. We then evaluated the extent of the human footprint in relation to terrestrial (ecoregions) and aquatic systems (major rivers and lakes), regional management and conservation status, physical environment, and temporal changes in human actions. The physical effect area of anthropogenic features covered 13% of the western United States with agricultural land (9.8%) being most dominant. High-intensity human footprint areas (class 8–10) overlapped highly productive low-elevation private landholdings and covered 7% of the western United States compared to 48% for low-intensity areas (class 1–3), which were confined to low-productivity high-elevation federal landholdings. Areas within 1 km of rivers were more affected by the human footprint compared to lakes. Percentage human population growth was higher in low-intensity human footprint areas. The disproportional regional effects of the human footprint on landscapes in the western United States create a challenge to management of ecosystems and wildlife populations. Using footprint models, managers can plan land use actions, develop restoration scenarios, and identify areas of high conservation value at local landscapes within a regional context. Moreover, human footprint models serve as a tool to stratify landscapes for studies investigating floral and faunal response to human disturbance intensity gradients.

Summary of Cumulus Parameterization Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Starr, David OC.; Hou, Arthur; Newman, Paul; Sud, Yogesh

2002-01-01

A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Models for renaturing brownfield areas [Chapter 19

Treesearch

Lynne M. Westphal; Paul H. Gobster; Matthias Gross

2010-01-01

While the term "restoration" is widely used in the United States and Europe, many projects and activities falling under this rubric might more appropriately be labeled "renaturing." Restoration often aims to recreate presettlement conditions (in the United States) or some other chosen point in the past. We are not alone in questioning this focus;...

Microgravity

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-02-22

Astronaut Franklin R. Chang-Diaz, payload commander, ponders the elements of a model representing the Commercial Protein Crystal Growth (CPCG) experiment. This flight of the experiment marks the first joint United States--Latin America effort in this discipline. The project brings together a small team of investigators from Costa Rica (Chang-Diaz's native land), Chile, and the United States.

Persistence of Master's Students in the United States: Development and Testing of a Conceptual Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Kristin E.

2012-01-01

This study was designed to investigate the factors that affect master's student persistence in the United States. More specifically, this study explored whether the following factors: students' background, institution's, academic, environmental and psychological influences, had a significant effect on whether a master's student persisted and/or…

Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

1988-01-01

Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

Relationships Among the Energy, Emergy, and Money Flows of the United States From 1900 to 2011

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we examine the relationships among the energy, emergy, and money flows of the United States from 1900 to 2011. To establish a theoretical basis for understanding these relationships, Energy Systems Language models of the resource base for the World System and of e...

Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This paper quantifies and monetizes climate change impacts on carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation and wildfire incidence in the contiguous United States to assess the benefits of alternative mitigation policies. The MC-1 dynamic global vegetation model was used to develop int...

Cold hardiness of winter-acclimated Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) adults

Treesearch

A.R. Stephens; M.K. Asplen; W.D. Hutchison; Robert C. Venette

2015-01-01

Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, often called spotted wing drosophila, is an exotic vinegar fly that is native to Southeast Asia and was first detected in the continental United States in 2008. Previous modeling studies have suggested that D. suzukii might not survive in portions of the northern United States or southern Canada...

Stripe rust epidemiological regions, virulence dynamics, pathogen reproduction modes, yield losses, forecasting models, and management in the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stripe rust of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), is one of the most important diseases in the United States. Epidemiological regions were determined based on epidemic patterns, cropping systems, geographic barriers, weather patterns, and inoculum exchanges. Areas where Ps...

A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture: The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Development of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was officially inaugurated in 1985 by United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) scientists in response to customer requests, particularly those coming from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), for im...

Modeling end-of-life pathways of construction and demolition debris in the United States (poster for LCM 2017)

EPA Science Inventory

In 2013, the United States generated 530 million tons of construction and demolition debris (CDD), 90% of which was related to demolition. Despite this major contribution to national waste streams, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies and product declarations of buildings and buil...

The United States Marine Corps: The 911 Force in the Post-9/11 World

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-23

increased efforts to engage narco-crime syndicate threats such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC), which is largely responsible for...discord. The United States should view this as an opportunity. As New York Times columnist James Traub notes, If we believe that a model of development

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 MAC-MAQ Conference Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of ozone simulations performed with the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air ...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States (book chapter)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper focuses on dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are s...

Academic Freedom in Social Education: An Australian Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jack L.

Academic freedom for precollegiate teachers in the United States is less clear than that expressed and confirmed in law and custom for college faculties. The question studied was how academic freedom is perceived in theory and practice by secondary school teachers outside of the United States. The interview schedule was modeled after schedules…

Development and evolution of The Knowledge Hub for Pathology and related electronic resources.

PubMed

Hardwick, David F; Sinard, John; Silva, Fred

2011-06-01

The Knowledge Hub for Pathology was created to provide authenticated and validated knowledge for United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology members and pathologists worldwide with access to the Web. Using the material presented at the annual meeting of the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology with existing selection and review procedures ensured that these criteria were met without added costly procedures. Further submissions for courses and research papers are provided in electronic format and funded by universities and hospitals for their creation; thus, the principal costs borne by the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology are Web site-posting costs. Use has escalated rapidly from 2 million hits in 2002 to 51 million in 2009 with use by 35,000 pathologists from now a total of 180 countries. This true "freemium" model is a successful process as are more traditional continuing professional development course structures such as Anatomic Pathology Electronic Case Series, a "premium" model for learning electronically also sponsored by the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines.

PubMed

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Grossmann, Iris; Apt, Jay

2012-02-28

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures--increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk--can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States' electricity needs.

Differences in liquor prices between control state-operated and license-state retail outlets in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Albers, Alison B.; Naimi, Timothy S.; Jernigan, David H.

2012-01-01

Aims This study aims to compare the average price of liquor in the United States between retail alcohol outlets in states that have a monopoly ('control' states) with those that do not ('licence' states). Design A cross-sectional study of brand-specific alcohol prices in the United States. Setting We determined the average prices in February 2012 of 74 brands of liquor among the 13 control states that maintain a monopoly on liquor sales at the retail level and among a sample of 50 license-state liquor stores, using their online-available prices. Measurements We calculated average prices for 74 brands of liquor by control vs. license state. We used a random effects regression model to estimate differences between control and license state prices – overall and by alcoholic beverage type. We also compared prices between the 13 control states. Findings The overall mean price for the 74 brands was $27.79 in the license states (95% confidence interval [CI], $25.26–$30.32) and $29.82 in the control states (95% CI, $26.98–$32.66). Based on the random effects linear regression model, the average liquor price was approximately two dollars lower (6.9% lower) in license states. Conclusions In the United States monopoly of alcohol retail outlets appears to be associated with slightly higher liquor prices. PMID:22934914

Stochastic Price Models and Optimal Tree Cutting: Results for Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Thomas P. Holmes

1991-01-01

An empirical investigation of stumpage price models and optimal harvest policies is conducted for loblolly pine plantations in the southeastern United States. The stationarity of monthly and quarterly series of sawtimber prices is analyzed using a unit root test. The statistical evidence supports stationary autoregressive models for the monthly series and for the...

Climatology of Station Storm Rainfall in the Continental United States: Parameters of the Bartlett-Lewis and Poisson Rectangular Pulses Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hawk, Kelly Lynn; Eagleson, Peter S.

1992-01-01

The parameters of two stochastic models of point rainfall, the Bartlett-Lewis model and the Poisson rectangular pulses model, are estimated for each month of the year from the historical records of hourly precipitation at more than seventy first-order stations in the continental United States. The parameters are presented both in tabular form and as isopleths on maps. The Poisson rectangular pulses parameters are useful in implementing models of the land surface water balance. The Bartlett-Lewis parameters are useful in disaggregating precipitation to a time period shorter than that of existing observations. Information is also included on a floppy disk.

Teachers' Conceptions of Mathematical Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gould, Heather

2013-01-01

The release of the "Common Core State Standards for Mathematics" in 2010 resulted in a new focus on mathematical modeling in United States curricula. Mathematical modeling represents a way of doing and understanding mathematics new to most teachers. The purpose of this study was to determine the conceptions and misconceptions held by…

Climate-Host Mapping of Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death

Treesearch

Roger Magarey; Glenn Fowler; Manuel Colunga; Bill Smith; Ross Meentemeyer

2008-01-01

We modeled Phytophthora ramorum infection using the North Carolina State University- Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST) for the conterminous United States. Our infection model is based on a temperature-moisture response function. The model parameters were: leaf wetness, minimum temperature, optimum...

An Analysis of Mathematical Models to Improve Counter-Drug Smuggling Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

users. The target input file for the optimization algorithm has one segment of one target path on each row. Thus, if a target travels along a path...organization TOS time on station TSP Travelling Salesperson Problem USCG United States Coast Guard USN United States Navy UCONN University...of Connecticut UNCLOS United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This research is motivated by the ongoing efforts of the

Policy challenges for the pediatric rheumatology workforce: Part II. Health care system delivery and workforce supply

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The United States pediatric population with chronic health conditions is expanding. Currently, this demographic comprises 12-18% of the American child and youth population. Affected children often receive fragmented, uncoordinated care. Overall, the American health care delivery system produces modest outcomes for this population. Poor, uninsured and minority children may be at increased risk for inferior coordination of services. Further, the United States health care delivery system is primarily organized for the diagnosis and treatment of acute conditions. For pediatric patients with chronic health conditions, the typical acute problem-oriented visit actually serves as a barrier to care. The biomedical model of patient education prevails, characterized by unilateral transfer of medical information. However, the evidence basis for improvement in disease outcomes supports the use of the chronic care model, initially proposed by Dr. Edward Wagner. Six inter-related elements distinguish the success of the chronic care model, which include self-management support and care coordination by a prepared, proactive team. United States health care lacks a coherent policy direction for the management of high cost chronic conditions, including rheumatic diseases. A fundamental restructure of United States health care delivery must urgently occur which places the patient at the center of care. For the pediatric rheumatology workforce, reimbursement policies and the actions of health plans and insurers are consistent barriers to chronic disease improvement. United States reimbursement policy and overall fragmentation of health care services pose specific challenges for widespread implementation of the chronic care model. Team-based multidisciplinary care, care coordination and self-management are integral to improve outcomes. Pediatric rheumatology demand in the United States far exceeds available workforce supply. This article reviews the career choice decision-making process at each medical trainee level to determine best recruitment strategies. Educational debt is an unexpectedly minor determinant for pediatric residents and subspecialty fellows. A two-year fellowship training option may retain the mandatory scholarship component and attract an increasing number of candidate trainees. Diversity, work-life balance, scheduling flexibility to accommodate part-time employment, and reform of conditions for academic promotion all need to be addressed to ensure future growth of the pediatric rheumatology workforce. PMID:21843335

Policy challenges for the pediatric rheumatology workforce: Part II. Health care system delivery and workforce supply.

PubMed

Henrickson, Michael

2011-01-01

The United States pediatric population with chronic health conditions is expanding. Currently, this demographic comprises 12-18% of the American child and youth population. Affected children often receive fragmented, uncoordinated care. Overall, the American health care delivery system produces modest outcomes for this population. Poor, uninsured and minority children may be at increased risk for inferior coordination of services. Further, the United States health care delivery system is primarily organized for the diagnosis and treatment of acute conditions. For pediatric patients with chronic health conditions, the typical acute problem-oriented visit actually serves as a barrier to care. The biomedical model of patient education prevails, characterized by unilateral transfer of medical information. However, the evidence basis for improvement in disease outcomes supports the use of the chronic care model, initially proposed by Dr. Edward Wagner. Six inter-related elements distinguish the success of the chronic care model, which include self-management support and care coordination by a prepared, proactive team. United States health care lacks a coherent policy direction for the management of high cost chronic conditions, including rheumatic diseases. A fundamental restructure of United States health care delivery must urgently occur which places the patient at the center of care. For the pediatric rheumatology workforce, reimbursement policies and the actions of health plans and insurers are consistent barriers to chronic disease improvement. United States reimbursement policy and overall fragmentation of health care services pose specific challenges for widespread implementation of the chronic care model. Team-based multidisciplinary care, care coordination and self-management are integral to improve outcomes. Pediatric rheumatology demand in the United States far exceeds available workforce supply. This article reviews the career choice decision-making process at each medical trainee level to determine best recruitment strategies. Educational debt is an unexpectedly minor determinant for pediatric residents and subspecialty fellows. A two-year fellowship training option may retain the mandatory scholarship component and attract an increasing number of candidate trainees. Diversity, work-life balance, scheduling flexibility to accommodate part-time employment, and reform of conditions for academic promotion all need to be addressed to ensure future growth of the pediatric rheumatology workforce.

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States.

PubMed

Leung, Michael C M; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Junsen

2004-07-01

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States.

Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in Latin America and among Hispanics in the United States of America: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cortes-Bergoderi, Mery; Thomas, Randal J; Albuquerque, Felipe N; Batsis, John A; Burdiat, Gerard; Perez-Terzic, Carmen; Trejo-Gutierrez, Jorge; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco

2012-08-01

To assess the use and validity of prediction models to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Latin America and among Hispanic populations in the United States of America. This was a systematic review of three databases: Ovid MEDLINE (1 January 1950-15 April 2010), LILACS (1 January 1988-15 April 2010), and EMBASE (1 January 1988-15 April 2010). MeSH search terms and domains were related to CVD, prediction rules, Latin America (including the Caribbean), and Hispanics in the United States. Database searches were supplemented by correspondence with experts in the field. A total of 1 655 abstracts were identified, of which five cohorts with a total of 13 142 subjects met inclusion criteria. A Mexican cohort showed that the predicted/observed event-rate ratio for coronary heart disease (CHD) according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) was 1.68 (95% CI, 1.26-2.11); incident myocardial infarction, 1.36 (95% CI, 0.90-1.83); and CHD death, 1.21 (95% CI, 0.43-2.00). In Ecuador, a prediction model for CVD and total deaths in hypertensive patients had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.86), while the World Health Organization method had an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82). A study predicting mortality risk in people with Chagas' disease had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90). Among a United State s cohort that included Hispanics, FRS overestimated CVD risk for Hispanics with an AUC of 0.69. Another study in the United States that assessed FRS factors predicting CVD death among Mexican-Americans had an AUC of 0.78. The evidence regarding CVD risk prediction rules in Latin America or among Hispanics in the United States is modest at best. It is likely that the FRS overestimates CVD risk in Hispanics when not properly recalibrated.

Predicting county-level cancer incidence rates and counts in the United States

PubMed Central

Yu, Binbing

2018-01-01

Many countries, including the United States, publish predicted numbers of cancer incidence and death in current and future years for the whole country. These predictions provide important information on the cancer burden for cancer control planners, policymakers and the general public. Based on evidence from several empirical studies, the joinpoint (segmented-line linear regression) model has been adopted by the American Cancer Society to estimate the number of new cancer cases in the United States and in individual states since 2007. Recently, cancer incidence in smaller geographic regions such as counties and FIPS code regions is of increasing interest by local policymakers. The natural extension is to directly apply the joinpoint model to county-level cancer incidence data. The direct application has several drawbacks and its performance has not been evaluated. To address the concerns, we developed a spatial random-effects joinpoint model for county-level cancer incidence data. The proposed model was used to predict both cancer incidence rates and counts at the county level. The standard joinpoint model and the proposed method were compared through a validation study. The proposed method out-performed the standard joinpoint model for almost all cancer sites, especially for moderate or rare cancer sites and for counties with small population sizes. As an application, we predicted county-level prostate cancer incidence rates and counts for the year 2011 in Connecticut. PMID:23670947

Hydrologic consistency as a basis for assessing complexity of monthly water balance models for the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Guillermo F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2011-12-01

Methods to select parsimonious and hydrologically consistent model structures are useful for evaluating dominance of hydrologic processes and representativeness of data. While information criteria (appropriately constrained to obey underlying statistical assumptions) can provide a basis for evaluating appropriate model complexity, it is not sufficient to rely upon the principle of maximum likelihood (ML) alone. We suggest that one must also call upon a "principle of hydrologic consistency," meaning that selected ML structures and parameter estimates must be constrained (as well as possible) to reproduce desired hydrological characteristics of the processes under investigation. This argument is demonstrated in the context of evaluating the suitability of candidate model structures for lumped water balance modeling across the continental United States, using data from 307 snow-free catchments. The models are constrained to satisfy several tests of hydrologic consistency, a flow space transformation is used to ensure better consistency with underlying statistical assumptions, and information criteria are used to evaluate model complexity relative to the data. The results clearly demonstrate that the principle of consistency provides a sensible basis for guiding selection of model structures and indicate strong spatial persistence of certain model structures across the continental United States. Further work to untangle reasons for model structure predominance can help to relate conceptual model structures to physical characteristics of the catchments, facilitating the task of prediction in ungaged basins.

Healing the victim, the young offender, and the community via restorative justice: an international perspective.

PubMed

Goren, S

2001-03-01

The 1990s saw the enactment of much "get tough with young offenders" legislation in the United States. At the same, problems with our present punishment and treatment model, in which many youngsters cycle repeatedly through the justice and mental health systems, raised interest in restorative justice, a community-based alternative model emphasizing a balanced, negotiated approach to the needs of victims, offenders, and the community. After summarizing the philosophical bases underlying both models, this article describes the practice of restorative justice in New Zealand, where it was pioneered. Restorative justice has special relevance for Maori community in New Zealand and minority communities in the United States, where youth are consistently overrepresented in the courts, detention centers, and jails, and in which the juvenile justice system is seen as hostile and biased. Outcome data from New Zealand and early outcome research from the United States suggest that the restorative model, in which offenses are understood as a breakdown in social bonds, offers a hopeful alternative for offending youngsters, their families, and their communities.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

An artificial neural network model for periodic trajectory generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shankar, S.; Gander, R. E.; Wood, H. C.

A neural network model based on biological systems was developed for potential robotic application. The model consists of three interconnected layers of artificial neurons or units: an input layer subdivided into state and plan units, an output layer, and a hidden layer between the two outer layers which serves to implement nonlinear mappings between the input and output activation vectors. Weighted connections are created between the three layers, and learning is effected by modifying these weights. Feedback connections between the output and the input state serve to make the network operate as a finite state machine. The activation vector of the plan units of the input layer emulates the supraspinal commands in biological central pattern generators in that different plan activation vectors correspond to different sequences or trajectories being recalled, even with different frequencies. Three trajectories were chosen for implementation, and learning was accomplished in 10,000 trials. The fault tolerant behavior, adaptiveness, and phase maintenance of the implemented network are discussed.

Improving Simulations of Fine Dust Surface Concentrations over the Western United States by Optimizing the Particle Size Distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Li; Kok, Jasper F.; Henze, Daven

2013-06-28

To improve estimates of remote contributions of dust to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the western United States, new dust particle size distributions (PSDs) based upon scale-invariant fragmentation theory (Kok_PSD) with constraints from in situ measurements (IMP_PSD) are implemented in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Compared to initial simulations, this leads to reductions in the mass of emitted dust particles with radii <1.8 mm by 40%-60%. Consequently, the root-mean-square error in simulated fine dust concentrations compared to springtime surface observations in the western United States is reduced by 67%-81%. The ratio of simulated fine to coarse PM mass is alsomore » improved, which is not achievable by reductions in total dust emissions. The IMP_PSD best represents the PSD of dust transported from remote sources and reduces modeled PM2.5 concentrations up to 5 mg/m3 over the western United States, which is important when considering sources contributing to nonattainment of air quality standards. Citation: Zhang, L., J. F. Kok, D. K. Henze, Q. Li, and C. Zhao (2013), Improving simulations of fine dust surface concentrations over the western United States by optimizing the particle size distribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3270-3275, doi:10.1002/grl.50591.« less

Is the United States a good model for reducing social exclusion in Europe?

PubMed

Schmitt, John; Zipperer, Ben

2007-01-01

Advocates of U.S.-style labor market flexibility have long argued that Europe could generate jobs and lower unemployment if the continent's economies followed the example of the United States. More recently, proponents of the U.S. model have suggested that labor market deregulation also holds out the possibility of reducing the problem of "social exclusion" in Europe, primarily because unemployment is one of the worst forms of social exclusion and contributes to other forms of social marginalization. The authors review a broad range of social and economic indicators and conclude that the United States fares poorly compared with much of Europe on social measures. Meanwhile, U.S.-style flexibility has had only mixed success in improving employment outcomes, and the U.S. economy consistently provides lower levels of economic mobility than economies in Europe.

Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States

PubMed Central

Hacker, J. David

2016-01-01

This study relies on IPUMS samples of the 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880 censuses, aggregate census data, and the timing of state laws criminalizing abortion to construct regional estimates of marital fertility in the United States and estimate correlates of marital fertility. The results show a significant lag between the onset of marital fertility decline in the nation’s northeastern census divisions and its onset in western and southern census divisions. Empirical models indicate the presence of cultural, economic, and legal impediments to the diffusion of marital fertility control and illustrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility decline. PMID:27757800

Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States.

PubMed

Hacker, J David

2016-12-01

This study relies on IPUMS samples of the 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880 censuses, aggregate census data, and the timing of state laws criminalizing abortion to construct regional estimates of marital fertility in the United States and estimate correlates of marital fertility. The results show a significant lag between the onset of marital fertility decline in the nation's northeastern census divisions and its onset in western and southern census divisions. Empirical models indicate the presence of cultural, economic, and legal impediments to the diffusion of marital fertility control and illustrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility decline.

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rural Women Teachers in the United States. Keynote Address.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyman, Andrea

This presentation examines the history of women teachers in the rural United States. The earliest classrooms in America were a male environment modeled after European schools. But in the mid-19th century, the Civil War and westward expansion depleted the number of male teachers and brought rural women teachers to the helm of American education.…

Joining the Conversation: Predictors of Success on the United States Medical Licensing Examinations (USMLE)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gohara, Sabry; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Jacob, Adam N.; Khuder, Sadik A.; Gandy, Robyn A.; Metting, Patricia J.; Gold, Jeffrey; Kleshinski, James; and James Kleshinski

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether models based on pre-admission testing, including performance on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), performance on required courses in the medical school curriculum, or a combination of both could accurately predict performance of medical students on the United States Medical Licensing…

Modeling Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) habitat and climate change effects in the northwestern United States

Treesearch

Becky K. Kerns; Bridgett J. Naylor; Michelle Buonopane; Catherine G. Parks; Brendan Rogers

2009-01-01

Tamarisk species are shrubs or small trees considered by some to be among the most aggressively invasive and potentially detrimental exotic plants in the United States. Although extensively studied in the southern and interior west, northwestern (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) distribution and habitat information for tamarisk is either limited or lacking. We obtained...

Historical Roots of the Project Approach in the United States: 1850-1930.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DuCharme, Catherine C.

This paper contends that the historical roots of the project approach in the United States can give strength to early childhood educators today, offering insight and models for the implementation of child-oriented curriculum. The project approach to teaching and learning evolved as a result of the educational ideas of Friedrich Froebel, William…

Bringing Educational Fundraising Back to Great Britain: A Comparison with the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Proper, Eve

2009-01-01

As a solution to dwindling government revenue, higher education in Great Britain has recently begun to increase fundraising. While it looks to the United States' higher education sector as a model, there are significant legal, historical and cultural differences between the two nations that could limit the British higher education sector's…

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Timothy G. Wade; Kurt H. Riitters

2012-01-01

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approximately 1◦ × 2◦ using 1 km2 MODIS land surface...

Potential implications for expansion of freeze-tolerant eucalyptus plantations on water resources in the southern United States

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy F. Miniat; Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell

2014-01-01

The potential expansion of freeze-tolerant (FT) Eucalyptus plantations in the United States has raised concerns about the implications for water resources. Modeling was used to examine the potential effects of expanding the distribution of FT Eucalyptus plantations in US Department of Agriculture Plant Hardiness Zones 8b and...

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; John T. Abatzoglou; E. Natasha Stavros; Narasimhan K. Larkin

2014-01-01

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF >= 50,000 ac~20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p

School-Based Mental Health Programs in the United States: Present Status and a Blueprint for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfeiffer, Steven I.; Reddy, Linda A.

1998-01-01

Provides overview of sociocultural and political factors in the United States that have influenced recent interest in school-based health and mental health programs. Describes four well-known programs and presents a new framework, the Tripartite Model of School-Based Mental Health Interventions, to stimulate thinking on future programs. Addresses…

A spline model of climate for the Western United States

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2006-01-01

Monthly climate data of average, minimum, and maximum temperature and precipitation normalized for the period 1961 through 1990 were accumulated from approximately 3,000 weather stations in the Western United States and Southwestern Canada. About two-thirds of these observations were available from the weather services of the two countries while the remaining third...

Economic Markets and Higher Education: Ethical Issues in the United States and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keenan, Barry C.

2014-01-01

Educational values in both the United States and in China have suffered from the social and political reach of economic markets in each society. The models for counteracting the marketization of values in higher education can however be found in each country's past educational traditions. Surprisingly, the developmental values inherent in small…

A Look into International Graduate Students' Experience in the United States: A Grounded Theory Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fujisaki, Shuko

2013-01-01

The number of international students in the United States has been increasing each year, but little is known about their experience. There are recent studies on international students, however, only a few research has focused on international students studying at graduate level. To best study international graduate students' experience, a…

Modeling Actual Evapotranspiration From Forested Watersheds Across the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Devendra M. Amatya

2003-01-01

About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However...

The Responses of African American Men to Dominant Norms of Masculinity within the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Ian; And Others

1994-01-01

Investigated responses of 509 white/European American and African American men to dominant norms of masculinity within the United States and presents a model for male identity formation, including cultural influences, dominant cultural norms, and specific circumstances. Results suggest that at age 18, both groups report similar perspectives about…

Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

1998-01-01

Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth?s biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information...

Developing fall armyworms as a model for studying the migratory behavior of lepidopteran pests in the United States.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) is a significant economic pest in the western hemisphere, causing substantial losses in corn, sorghum, forage and turf grasses . Although fall armyworm does not survive severe winters, it infests most of the central and eastern United States an...

Forest ingrowth prediction model for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Linda S. Gribko

1997-01-01

In the last 20 years, there has been a revival of interest in the use of uneven-aged forest management techniques in the production of timber and forest amenity values. Uneven-aged management is coming into renewed favor especially among non-industrial private landowners in the northeastern United States. The practice allows periodic timber removals on relatively small...

Conversion of grazed pastures to energy cane as a biofuel feedstock alters the emission of GHGs from soils in Southeastern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The cultivation of energy cane throughout the Southeastern United States may displace grazed pastures on organic soil (Histosols) to meet growing demands for biofuels. We combined results from a field experiment with a biogeochemical model to improve our understanding of how the conversion of pastur...

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, to a...

77 FR 71111 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; State of Florida; Regional Haze...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-29

..., modeling, and scientific knowledge about the relationships between pollutants and visibility impairment..., proposed amendment for reasonable progress are: City of Gainesville Deerhaven unit 5; Florida Power & Light (FP&L) Manatee units 1, 2; FP&L Turkey Point units 1, 2; Gulf Power Company Crist unit 7; Lakeland...

Reimbursement for critical care services in India

PubMed Central

Jayaram, Raja; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

2013-01-01

There are significant variations in critical care practices, costs, and reimbursements in various countries. Of note, there is a paucity of reliable information on remuneration and reimbursement models for intensivists in India. This review article aims to analyze the existing reimbursement models in United States and United Kingdom and propose a frame-work model that may be applicable in India. PMID:23833469

Implementing the Constructed Scaffold Model: Hands-On Activity Units for Advanced Placement Calculus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Susan

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present action research study is to describe a hands-on activity model, named the Constructed Scaffold Model (CSM), used in an Advanced Placement Calculus class in a southeastern United States suburban high school. Data were collected over an 8-week period during the spring 2017 semester. The teacher-researcher developed a…

Targeting pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in the United States and Peru: partnership types, contact rates, and sexual role.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole B; Goodreau, Steven M; Liu, Albert; Vittinghoff, Eric; Sanchez, Jorge; Lama, Javier R; Buchbinder, Susan

2015-05-01

We aim to identify optimal strategies for deploying pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and Peru to maximize population-level effectiveness in an efficient manner. We use epidemic models to simulate the impact of targeting strategies. Most studies have focused on targeting either the general population or high-risk MSM. Alternative strategies, including serodiscordant couples, may better balance effectiveness and efficiency. We use dynamic stochastic sexual network models based on exponential-family random graph modeling, parameterized from behavioral surveys of MSM in the United States and Peru. These models represent main partnerships and casual contacts separately, permitting modeling of interventions targeting men whose risk derives from combinations of relational types. We also model varying rates of uptake and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We assess sensitivity of results to risk compensation through increases in condomless casual contacts and condomless sex in main partnerships. Targeting all men who are not exclusively insertive has the largest impact on HIV incidence, but targeting only those with high levels of casual activity yields comparable results using fewer person-years on PrEP. The effect is robust to risk compensation in the United States, but less so in Peru. Targeting serodiscordant main partnerships does not significantly impact incidence, but requires fewer person-years on PrEP per infection averted than other strategies. PrEP could be effective in reducing new infections at the population level in both settings. Serodiscordant partnerships are an attractive component of a targeting program, but targeting should include other high-risk men.

IMPROVING CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL PREDICTIONS OF ORGANIC AEROSOL: MEASUREMENT AND SIMULATION OF SEMIVOLATILE ORGANIC EMISSIONS FROM MOBILE AND NON-MOBILE SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Organic material contributes a significant fraction of PM_2.5 mass across all regions of the United States, but state-of-the-art chemical transport models often substantially underpredict measured organic aerosol concentrations. Recent revisions to these models that...

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Integrated health system for chronic disease management: lessons learned from France.

PubMed

Stuart, Mary; Weinrich, Michael

2004-02-01

Rated number one in overall health system performance by the World Health Organization, the French spend less than half the amount on annual health care per capita that the United States spends. One contributing factor may be the attention given to chronic care. Since the mid-1900s, the French have developed regional community-based specialty systems for patients with chronic respiratory insufficiency or failure. COPD is the major cause of respiratory failure, the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, and its prevalence is increasing. Despite the clinical success of home mechanical ventilation and the potential for cost savings, providing such services in the United States remains a challenge. Lessons from France can inform the development of cost-effective chronic care models in the United States In this article, we review the French experience in the context of the United States Supreme Court's Olmstead decision, mandating that people in "more restrictive settings" such as nursing homes be offered community-based supports. We suggest that regional demonstration projects for patients with chronic respiratory failure or insufficiency can provide an important step in the development of effective chronic care systems in the United States

Chemical-specific screening criteria for interpretation of biomonitoring data for volatile organic compounds (VOCs)--application of steady-state PBPK model solutions.

PubMed

Aylward, Lesa L; Kirman, Chris R; Blount, Ben C; Hays, Sean M

2010-10-01

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) generates population-representative biomonitoring data for many chemicals including volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in blood. However, no health or risk-based screening values are available to evaluate these data from a health safety perspective or to use in prioritizing among chemicals for possible risk management actions. We gathered existing risk assessment-based chronic exposure reference values such as reference doses (RfDs), reference concentrations (RfCs), tolerable daily intakes (TDIs), cancer slope factors, etc. and key pharmacokinetic model parameters for 47 VOCs. Using steady-state solutions to a generic physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model structure, we estimated chemical-specific steady-state venous blood concentrations across chemicals associated with unit oral and inhalation exposure rates and with chronic exposure at the identified exposure reference values. The geometric means of the slopes relating modeled steady-state blood concentrations to steady-state exposure to a unit oral dose or unit inhalation concentration among 38 compounds with available pharmacokinetic parameters were 12.0 microg/L per mg/kg-d (geometric standard deviation [GSD] of 3.2) and 3.2 microg/L per mg/m(3) (GSD=1.7), respectively. Chemical-specific blood concentration screening values based on non-cancer reference values for both oral and inhalation exposure range from 0.0005 to 100 microg/L; blood concentrations associated with cancer risk-specific doses at the 1E-05 risk level ranged from 5E-06 to 6E-02 microg/L. The distribution of modeled steady-state blood concentrations associated with unit exposure levels across VOCs may provide a basis for estimating blood concentration screening values for VOCs that lack chemical-specific pharmacokinetic data. The screening blood concentrations presented here provide a tool for risk assessment-based evaluation of population biomonitoring data for VOCs and are most appropriately applied to central tendency estimates for such datasets. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating the Water Use of Thermoelectric Power Plants in the United States: Model Development and Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betrie, G.; Yan, E.; Clark, C.

2016-12-01

Thermoelectric power plants use the highest amount of freshwater second to the agriculture sector. However, there is scarcity of information that characterizes the freshwater use of these plants in the United States. This could be attributed to the lack of model and data that are required to conduct analysis and gain insights. The competition for freshwater among sectors will increase in the future as the amount of freshwater gets limited due climate change and population growth. A model that makes use of less data is urgently needed to conduct analysis and identify adaptation strategies. The objectives of this study are to develop a model and simulate the water use of thermoelectric power plants in the United States. The developed model has heat-balance, climate, cooling system, and optimization modules. It computes the amount of heat rejected to the environment, estimates the quantity of heat exchanged through latent and sensible heat to the environment, and computes the amount of water required per unit generation of electricity. To verify the model, we simulated a total of 876 fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems (CS) using 2010-2014 data obtained from Energy Information Administration. The CS includes once-through with cooling pond, once-through without cooling ponds, recirculating with induced draft and recirculating with induced draft natural draft. The results show that the model reproduced the observed water use per unit generation of electricity for the most of the power plants. It is also noticed that the model slightly overestimates the water use during the summer period when the input water temperatures are higher. We are investigating the possible reasons for the overestimation and address it in the future work. The model could be used individually or coupled to regional models to analyze various adaptation strategies and improve the water use efficiency of thermoelectric power plants.

A cost-benefit analysis of a proposed overseas refugee latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment program.

PubMed

Wingate, La'Marcus T; Coleman, Margaret S; de la Motte Hurst, Christopher; Semple, Marie; Zhou, Weigong; Cetron, Martin S; Painter, John A

2015-12-01

This study explored the effect of screening and treatment of refugees for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) before entrance to the United States as a strategy for reducing active tuberculosis (TB). The purpose of this study was to estimate the costs and benefits of LTBI screening and treatment in United States bound refugees prior to arrival. Costs were included for foreign and domestic LTBI screening and treatment and the domestic treatment of active TB. A decision tree with multiple Markov nodes was developed to determine the total costs and number of active TB cases that occurred in refugee populations that tested 55, 35, and 20 % tuberculin skin test positive under two models: no overseas LTBI screening and overseas LTBI screening and treatment. For this analysis, refugees that tested 55, 35, and 20 % tuberculin skin test positive were divided into high, moderate, and low LTBI prevalence categories to denote their prevalence of LTBI relative to other refugee populations. For a hypothetical 1-year cohort of 100,000 refugees arriving in the United States from regions with high, moderate, and low LTBI prevalence, implementation of overseas screening would be expected to prevent 440, 220, and 57 active TB cases in the United States during the first 20 years after arrival. The cost savings associated with treatment of these averted cases would offset the cost of LTBI screening and treatment for refugees from countries with high (net cost-saving: $4.9 million) and moderate (net cost-saving: $1.6 million) LTBI prevalence. For low LTBI prevalence populations, LTBI screening and treatment exceed expected future TB treatment cost savings (net cost of $780,000). Implementing LTBI screening and treatment for United States bound refugees from countries with high or moderate LTBI prevalence would potentially save millions of dollars and contribute to United States TB elimination goals. These estimates are conservative since secondary transmission from tuberculosis cases in the United States was not considered in the model.

Building a Multicontextual Model of Latino College Enrollment: Student, School, and State-Level Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nunez, Anne-Marie; Kim, Dongbin

2012-01-01

Latinos' college enrollment rates, particularly in four-year institutions, have not kept pace with their population growth in the United States. Using three-level hierarchical generalized linear modeling, this study analyzes data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS) to examine the influence of high school and state contexts, in addition…

Two Models for Evaluating Alignment of State Standards and Assessments: Competing or Complementary Perspectives?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newton, Jill A.; Kasten, Sarah E.

2013-01-01

The release of the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics and their adoption across the United States calls for careful attention to the alignment between mathematics standards and assessments. This study investigates 2 models that measure alignment between standards and assessments, the Surveys of Enacted Curriculum (SEC) and the Webb…

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare species and provide tools for planning marten recovery in the northeastern United States.

New Models for Predicting Diameter at Breast Height from Stump Dimensions

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2010-01-01

Models to predict dbh from stump dimensions are presented for 18 species groups. Data used to fit the models were collected across thirteen states in the northeastern United States. Primarily because of the presence of multiple measurements from each tree, a mixed-effects modeling approach was used to account for the lack of independence among observations. The...

A Biopsychosocial Conceptual Framework of Postpartum Depression Risk in Immigrant and U.S.-born Latina Mothers in the United States.

PubMed

Lara-Cinisomo, Sandraluz; Girdler, Susan S; Grewen, Karen; Meltzer-Brody, Samantha

2016-01-01

In this review, we offer a conceptual framework that identifies risk factors of postpartum depression (PPD) in immigrant and U.S.-born Latinas in the United States by focusing on psychosocial and neuroendocrine factors. Although the evidence of the impact psychosocial stressors have on the development of PPD has been well-documented, less is known about the biological etiology of PPD or how these complex stressors jointly increase the risk of PPD in immigrant and U.S.-born Latinas in the United States. Using PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase, we reviewed the literature from 2000 to 2015 regarding psychosocial and physiological risk factors associated with PPD to develop a conceptual model for Latinas. Our search yielded 16 relevant studies. Based on our review of the literature, we developed a biopsychosocial conceptual model of PPD for Latinas in the United States. We make arguments for an integrated model designed to assess psychosocial and physiological risk factors and PPD in a high-risk population. Our framework describes the hypothesized associations between culturally and contextually relevant psychosocial stressors, neurobiological factors (e.g., hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal [HPA] axis response system and oxytocin signaling), and PPD in Latinas in the United States. Future studies should evaluate prospectively the impact psychosocial stressors identified here have on the development of PPD in both immigrant and U.S-born Latinas while examining neuroendocrine function, such as the HPA axis and oxytocin signaling. Our conceptual framework will allow for the reporting of main and indirect effects of psychosocial risk factors and biomarkers (e.g., HPA axis and oxytocin function) on PPD in foreign- and U.S.-born postpartum Latinas. Copyright © 2016 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

A High Resolution Tropical Cyclone Power Outage Forecasting Model for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, J. V.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S.; Shashaani, S.; Linger, S.; Backhaus, S.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones cause extensive damage to the power infrastructure system throughout the United States. This damage can leave millions without power for extended periods of time, as most recently seen with Hurricane Matthew (2016). Accurate and timely prediction of power outages are essential for utility companies, emergency management agencies, and governmental organizations. Here we present a high-resolution (250 m x 250 m) hurricane power outage model for the United States. The model uses only publicly-available data to make predictions. It uses forecasts of storm variables such as maximum 3-second wind gust, duration of strong winds > 20 m s-2, soil moisture, and precipitation. It also incorporates static environmental variables such as elevation characteristics, land cover type, population density, tree species data, and root zone depth. A web tool was established for use by the Department of Energy (DOE) so that the model can be used for real-time outage forecasting or for synthetic tropical cyclones as an exercise in emergency management. This web tool provides DOE decision-makers with high impact analytic results and products that can be disseminated to federal, local, and state agencies. The results then aid utility companies in their pre- and post-storm activities, thus decreasing restoration times and lowering costs.

MODELING, SYNTHESIS AND BIOASSAY OF ACYLPIPERIDINES AND CARBOXAMIDES AS IMPROVED MOSQUITO REPELLENTS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Novel mosquito repellents are being designed through collaborative research between the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service and the University of Florida, Department of Chemistry. The approach involves state-of-the-art modeling, organic synthesis, and repell...

Development of a United States-Mexico Emissions Inventory for the Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study.

PubMed

Kuhns, Hampden; Knipping, Eladio M; Vukovich, Jeffrey M

2005-05-01

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study was commissioned to investigate the sources of haze at Big Bend National Park in southwest Texas. The modeling domain of the BRAVO Study includes most of the continental United States and Mexico. The BRAVO emissions inventory was constructed from the 1999 National Emission Inventory for the United States, modified to include finer-resolution data for Texas and 13 U.S. states in close proximity. The first regional-scale Mexican emissions inventory designed for air-quality modeling applications was developed for 10 northern Mexican states, the Tula Industrial Park in the state of Hidalgo, and the Popocatépetl volcano in the state of Puebla. Emissions data were compiled from numerous sources, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Texas Natural Resources Conservation Commission (now Texas Commission on Environmental Quality), the Eastern Research Group, the Minerals Management Service, the Instituto Nacional de Ecología, and the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografía y Informática. The inventory includes emissions for CO, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia, particulate matter (PM) < 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter, and PM < 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter. Wind-blown dust and biomass burning were not included in the inventory, although high concentrations of dust and organic PM attributed to biomass burning have been observed at Big Bend National Park. The SMOKE modeling system was used to generate gridded emissions fields for use with the Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model modified with the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization and Dissolution (CMAQ-MADRID). The compilation of the inventory, supporting model input data, and issues encountered during the development of the inventory are documented. A comparison of the BRAVO emissions inventory for Mexico with other emerging Mexican emission inventories illustrates their uncertainty.

Recent Trends in Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Cancer in Germany and the United States.

PubMed

Sirri, Eunice; Castro, Felipe Andres; Kieschke, Joachim; Jansen, Lina; Emrich, Katharina; Gondos, Adam; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Urbschat, Iris; Vohmann, Claudia; Brenner, Hermann

2016-07-01

Survival improvement for pancreatic cancer has not been observed in the last 4 decades. We report the most up-to-date population-based relative survival (RS) estimates and recent trends in Germany and the United States. Data for patients diagnosed in 1997 to 2010 and followed up to 2010 were drawn from 12 population-based German cancer registries and the US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results) 13 registries database. Using period analysis, 5-year RS for 2007 to 2010 was derived. Model-based period analysis was used to assess 5-year RS time trends, 2002-2010. In total 28,977 (Germany) and 34,793 (United States) patients aged 15 to 74 years were analyzed. Five-year RS was 10.7% and 10.3% in Germany and the United States, respectively, and strongly decreased with age and tumor spread. Prognosis slightly improved from the period 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 (overall age-adjusted RS: +2.5% units in Germany and +3.4% units in the United States); improvement was particularly strong for regional stage and head and body subsites in Germany and for localized and regional stages and tail subsite in the United States. Although pancreatic cancer survival continues to be poor for advanced-stage patients, our study disclosed encouraging indications of first improvements in 5-year RS after decades of stagnation.

Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Bala, G.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Nozawa, T.

2009-01-01

This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow "center" timing (the day in the "water-year" on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States_the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier "center" timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p < 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Internationalizing undergraduate psychology education: Trends, techniques, and technologies.

PubMed

Takooshian, Harold; Gielen, Uwe P; Plous, Scott; Rich, Grant J; Velayo, Richard S

2016-01-01

How can we best internationalize undergraduate psychology education in the United States and elsewhere? This question is more timely than ever, for at least 2 reasons: Within the United States, educators and students seek greater contact with psychology programs abroad, and outside the United States, psychology is growing apace, with educators and students in other nations often looking to U.S. curricula and practices as models. In this article, we outline international developments in undergraduate psychology education both in the United States and abroad, and analyze the dramatic rise of online courses and Internet-based technologies from an instructional and international point of view. Building on the recommendations of the 2005 APA Working Group on Internationalizing the Undergraduate Psychology Curriculum, we then advance 14 recommendations on internationalizing undergraduate psychology education--for students, faculty, and institutions. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Topographic variables improve climate models of forage species abundance in the northeastern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Species distribution modeling has most commonly been applied to presence-only data and to woody species, but detailed predicted abundance maps for forage species would be of great value for agricultural management and land use planning. We used field data from 107 farms across the northeastern Unite...

What's My Math Course Got to Do with Biology?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burks, Robert; Lindquist, Joseph; McMurran, Shawnee

2008-01-01

At United States Military Academy, a unit on biological modeling applications forms the culminating component of the first semester core mathematics course for freshmen. The course emphasizes the use of problem-solving strategies and modeling to solve complex and ill-defined problems. Topic areas include functions and their shapes, data fitting,…

Metals fate and transport modelling in streams and watersheds: state of the science and USEPA workshop review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caruso, B.S.; Cox, T.J.; Runkel, Robert L.; Velleux, M.L.; Bencala, Kenneth E.; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Julien, P.Y.; Butler, B.A.; Alpers, Charles N.; Marion, A.; Smith, Kathleen S.

2008-01-01

Metals pollution in surface waters from point and non-point sources (NPS) is a widespread problem in the United States and worldwide (Lofts et al., 2007; USEPA, 2007). In the western United States, metals associated with acid mine drainage (AMD) from hardrock mines in mountainous areas impact aquatic ecosystems and human health (USEPA, 1997a; Caruso and Ward, 1998; Church et al., 2007). Metals fate and transport modelling in streams and watersheds is sometimes needed for assessment and restoration of surface waters, including mining-impacted streams (Runkel and Kimball, 2002; Caruso, 2003; Velleux et al., 2006). The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP; Wool et al., 2001), developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), is an example of a model used for such analyses. Other approaches exist and appropriate model selection depends on site characteristics, data availability and modelling objectives. However, there are a wide range of assumptions, input parameters, data requirements and gaps, and calibration and validation issues that must be addressed by model developers, users and decision makers. Despite substantial work on model development, their successful application has been more limited because they are not often used by decision makers for stream and watershed assessment and restoration. Bringing together scientists, model developers, users and decision makers should stimulate the development of appropriate models and improve the applicability of their results. To address these issues, the USEPA Office of Research and Development and Region 8 (Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) hosted a workshop in Denver, Colorado on February 13–14, 2007. The workshop brought together approximately 35 experts from government, academia and consulting to address the state of the art for modelling metals fate and transport, knowledge gaps and future directions in metals modelling. It focused on modelling metals in high-altitude streams, rivers and watersheds impacted by mine waste that are common in the western United States and require remediation. For example, there are over 100 000 abandoned or inactive mining sites across the United States, encompassing over 500 000 acres of land that may eventually require characterization and remediation, including the possible application of stream or watershed metals fate and transport modelling (USEPA, 1997a). This article provides a general overview of the state of the science on modelling metals fate and transport in streams and watersheds, including a review of presentations and discussions at the USEPA workshop. It builds on previous summaries of metals fate and transport models in aquatic systems, including USEPA (1997b, 2007), Allen (2002), Paquin et al. (2003), Nordstrom (2004) and Maest et al. (2005).

CAMx Ozone Source Attribution in the Eastern United States using Guidance from Observations during DISCOVER-AQ Maryland

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Daniel L.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; Anderson, Daniel C.; Hembeck, Linda; Canty, Timothy P.; Ehrman, Sheryl H.; Martins, Douglas K.; Stauffer, Ryan M.; Thompson, Anne M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R.

2018-01-01

A Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 6.10 simulation was assessed through comparison with data acquired during NASA’s 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Maryland field campaign. Comparisons for the baseline simulation (CB05 chemistry, EPA 2011 National Emissions Inventory) show a model overestimate of NOy by +86.2% and an underestimate of HCHO by −28.3%. We present a new model framework (CB6r2 chemistry, MEGAN v2.1 biogenic emissions, 50% reduction in mobile NOx, enhanced representation of isoprene nitrates) that better matches observations. The new model framework attributes 31.4% more surface ozone in Maryland to electric generating units (EGUs) and 34.6% less ozone to on-road mobile sources. Surface ozone becomes more NOx-limited throughout the eastern United States compared to the baseline simulation. The baseline model therefore likely underestimates the effectiveness of anthropogenic NOx reductions as well as the current contribution of EGUs to surface ozone. PMID:29618849

CAMx Ozone Source Attribution in the Eastern United States using Guidance from Observations during DISCOVER-AQ Maryland.

PubMed

Goldberg, Daniel L; Vinciguerra, Timothy P; Anderson, Daniel C; Hembeck, Linda; Canty, Timothy P; Ehrman, Sheryl H; Martins, Douglas K; Stauffer, Ryan M; Thompson, Anne M; Salawitch, Ross J; Dickerson, Russell R

2016-03-16

A Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 6.10 simulation was assessed through comparison with data acquired during NASA's 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Maryland field campaign. Comparisons for the baseline simulation (CB05 chemistry, EPA 2011 National Emissions Inventory) show a model overestimate of NO y by +86.2% and an underestimate of HCHO by -28.3%. We present a new model framework (CB6r2 chemistry, MEGAN v2.1 biogenic emissions, 50% reduction in mobile NO x , enhanced representation of isoprene nitrates) that better matches observations. The new model framework attributes 31.4% more surface ozone in Maryland to electric generating units (EGUs) and 34.6% less ozone to on-road mobile sources. Surface ozone becomes more NO x -limited throughout the eastern United States compared to the baseline simulation. The baseline model therefore likely underestimates the effectiveness of anthropogenic NO x reductions as well as the current contribution of EGUs to surface ozone.

Planning intensive care unit design using computer simulation modeling: optimizing integration of clinical, operational, and architectural requirements.

PubMed

OʼHara, Susan

2014-01-01

Nurses have increasingly been regarded as critical members of the planning team as architects recognize their knowledge and value. But the nurses' role as knowledge experts can be expanded to leading efforts to integrate the clinical, operational, and architectural expertise through simulation modeling. Simulation modeling allows for the optimal merge of multifactorial data to understand the current state of the intensive care unit and predict future states. Nurses can champion the simulation modeling process and reap the benefits of a cost-effective way to test new designs, processes, staffing models, and future programming trends prior to implementation. Simulation modeling is an evidence-based planning approach, a standard, for integrating the sciences with real client data, to offer solutions for improving patient care.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Buffelgrass-Integrated modeling of an invasive plant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holcombe, Tracy R.

2011-01-01

Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) poses a problem in the deserts of the United States, growing in dense stands and introducing a wildfire risk in an ecosystem not adapted to fire. The Invasive Species Science Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center has worked with many partners to develop a decision support model and a data management system to address the problem. The decision support model evaluates potential strategies for resource use and allocation. The data management system is a portal where users can submit, view, and download buffelgrass data. These tools provide a case study showcasing how the FORT is working to address the urgent issue of invasive species in the United States.

A model of airport security work flow based on petri net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Xinming

2017-09-01

Extremely long lines at airports in the United States have been sharply criticized. In order to find out the bottleneck in the existing security system and put forward reasonable improvement plans and proposal, the Petri net model and the Markov Chain are introduced in this paper. This paper uses data collected by transportation Security Agency (TSA), assuming the data can represent the average level of all airports in the Unites States, to analysis the performance of security check system. By calculating the busy probabilities and the utilization probabilities, the bottleneck is found. Moreover, recommendation is given based on the parameters’ modification in Petri net model.

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

Experimental study of main rotor/tail rotor/airframe interactions in hover. Volume 1: Text and figures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balch, D. T.; Saccullo, A.; Sheehy, T. W.

1983-01-01

To assist in identifying and quantifying the relevant parameters associated with the complex topic of main rotor/fuselage/tail rotor interference, a model scale hover test was conducted in the Model Rotor Hover Facility. The test was conducted using the basic model test rig, fuselage skins to represent a UH-60A BLACK HAWK helicopter, 4 sets of rotor blades of varying geometry (i.e., twist, airfoils and solidity) and a model tail rotor that could be relocated to give changes in rotor clearance (axially, laterally, and vertically), can't angle and operating model (pusher or tractor). The description of the models and the tests, data analysis and summary (including plots) are included. The customary system of units gas used for principal measurements and calculations. Expressions in both SI units and customary units are used with the SI units stated first and the customary units afterwords, in parenthesis.

Learning to Obtain Reward, but Not Avoid Punishment, Is Affected by Presence of PTSD Symptoms in Male Veterans: Empirical Data and Computational Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-27

University of New Jersey, Newark, New Jersey, United States of America, 3 Department of Psychology , Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey...United States of America, 5 Marcs Institute for Brain and Behaviour & School of Social Sciences and Psychology , University of Western Sydney, Sydney...for current, severe PTSD symptoms (PTSS) were tested on a probabilistic classification task [19] that interleaves reward learning and punishment

Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston; Marcus V. Warwell; Jeffrey S. Evans

2006-01-01

The Random Forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western United States and nine of their constituent species. Analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120,000 locations. Independent variables included 35...

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

K. Averyt; J. Meldrum; P. Caldwell; G. Sun; S. McNulty; A. Huber-Lee; N. Madden

2013-01-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model...

The Emergent Charter School Model for Ninth Grade Mildly Disabled United States Students: Extending to Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vincent, Emmanuel Teah

2009-01-01

An ethnographic, descriptive research methodology was used to explore the service delivery of three U.S. charter schools (one independent and two dependent secondary public charter schools) in Southern New England, United States as they relate to grade nine mildly disabled special needs students. Field research was also conducted in Costa Rica and…

Recreational fishing in the Southeast United States: a demand project analysis

Treesearch

Neelam C. Poudyal; J.M. Bowker

2008-01-01

The objective of this paper is to first develop an economic model of demand for recreational fishing in the Southeastern United States, and then project the demand for fishing in the region during the next few decades. The findings from this study will be useful to understand the factors behind declining people's participation and also to forecast the license...

Communities of Practice for the Development of Adolescent Civic Engagement: An Empirical Study of Their Correlates in Australia and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Homana, Gary A.

2009-01-01

The relationships between a multidimensional model of school community and civic engagement were examined using survey data collected for the 1999 IEA Civic Education Study from large, nationally representative samples of adolescents in Australia and the United States. This study extends previous research by considering the extent to which…

From Presidential Protection to Campus Security: A Brief History of Threat Assessment in North American Schools and Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randazzo, Marisa R.; Cameron, J. Kevin

2012-01-01

This article provides a brief history of the development of behavioral threat assessment within colleges and universities in the United States and Canada, from the original Secret Service model used to evaluate threats against the U.S. president, to its adaptations for workplace settings and United States and Canadian secondary schools, to its…

Christ-Centered, Diverse, and Academically Excellent: The Origins of a Possible Model for Christian Schooling in the Twenty-First Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, James

2006-01-01

During the last third of the twentieth century, Christian schooling in the United States was typically identified with the growing conservative, evangelical Protestant movement of that time period. After several United States Supreme Court cases had effectively secularized public schooling by the mid-1960s, the American educational landscape was…

The U.S. forest sector in 2030: Markets and competitors

Treesearch

James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was used to project international forest sector developments, conditional on the latest RPA Timber Assessment of future domestic changes in the United States. While the United States, Japan, and Europe were predicted to remain major importers of forest products out to 2030, the rapid economic growth of China would make it the world...

Historical trends and projections of land use for the South-Central United States.

Treesearch

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

This report presents historical trends and future projections of forest, agricultural, and urban and other land uses for the South-Central United States. A land use share model is used to investigate the relation between the areas of land in alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Two different versions of the empirical...

Meeting a Binational Research Challenge: Substance Abuse among Transnational Mexican Farmworkers in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Victor

2007-01-01

To help in understanding the manner in which community, individual, and other factors in the United States and Mexico contribute to drug use among transnational migrants, this paper introduces a binational social ecology model of substance abuse in this population. We draw on our 2 NIH-funded ethnographic studies--1 on problem drinking and the…

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

Private Catholic Elementary Schools Established by Religious Congregations in the United States: Emerging Governance Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Mary Grace

2010-01-01

Private Catholic elementary schools in the United States often trace their origins to religious congregations of women and men. The rapid decline of religious vocations and the choice of many religious to serve in diverse ministries since the Second Vatican Council, has had an effect on all Catholic schools. Schools founded by religious…

A model of forest floor carbon mass for United States forest types

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2002-01-01

Includes a large set of published values of forest floor mass and develop large-scale estimates of carbon mass according to region and forest type. Estimates of average forest floor carbon mass per hectare of forest applied to a 1997 summary forest inventory, sum to 4.5 Gt carbon stored in forests of the 48 contiguous United States.

Theory and Techniques for Assessing the Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation in the United States

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

1989-01-01

As the central analysis for the 1989 Renewable Resources planning Act Assessment, a household market model covering 37 recreational activities was computed for the United States. Equilibrium consumption and costs were estimated, as were likely future changes in consumption and costs in response to expected demand growth and alternative development and access policies...

Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from Eucalyptus plantings in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; John A. Stanturf

2012-01-01

Renewed interest in short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and bioproducts has prompted a reevaluation of the Eucalyptus species for the southern United States. One question that arises about the potential effects of introducing a nonnative species is what effect will there be on fire behavior. Our approximate answer based on modeling fire behavior...

Impact of trucking network flow on preferred biorefinery locations in the southern United States

Treesearch

Timothy M. Young; Lee D. Han; James H. Perdue; Stephanie R. Hargrove; Frank M. Guess; Xia Huang; Chung-Hao Chen

2017-01-01

The impact of the trucking transportation network flow was modeled for the southern United States. The study addresses a gap in existing research by applying a Bayesian logistic regression and Geographic Information System (GIS) geospatial analysis to predict biorefinery site locations. A one-way trucking cost assuming a 128.8 km (80-mile) haul distance was estimated...

The Influence of Female Social Models in Corporate STEM Initiatives on Girls' Math and Science Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Medeiros, Donald J.

2011-01-01

The United States' Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) workforce is growing slower than in the past, in comparison to demand, and in comparison to other countries. Competitive talent conditions require the United States to develop a strong pipeline of STEM talent within its own citizens. Given the number of female college…

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. Scenarios are designed to explore key uncertainties around the measurement of these changes. The modeling exercise presented in this Special Issue includes two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing six broad impacts sectors - water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, ecosystems, and forests. Three consistent emissions scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference and two policy scenarios, with total radiative forcing in 2100 of 10.0W/m2, 4.5W/m2, and 3.7W/m2. A range of climate sensitivities, climate models, natural variability measures, and structural uncertainties of sectoral models are examined to explore the implications of key uncertainties. This overview paper describes the motivations, goals, design, and academic contribution of the CIRA modeling exercise and briefly summarizes the subsequent papers in this Special Issue. A summary of results across impact sectors is provided showing that: GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-11-01

SummaryEstimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1-8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1–8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Comparative Rural Landscapes: A Conceptual Geographic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinbrink, John E.

The geography unit is designed for use in upper elementary grades. The unit objective is to help the student learn facts about the landscapes of the United States, the Netherlands, Australia, Russia, and Central Africa, and acquire generic ideas which he can apply to the analysis and comparison of other landscapes. The unit is an attempt to apply…

Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.; Ludwig, Fulco; Vögele, Stefan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Kabat, Pavel

2012-09-01

In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref. ) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2013-09-24

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

The contemporary cement cycle of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapur, A.; Van Oss, H. G.; Keoleian, G.; Kesler, S.E.; Kendall, A.

2009-01-01

A country-level stock and flow model for cement, an important construction material, was developed based on a material flow analysis framework. Using this model, the contemporary cement cycle of the United States was constructed by analyzing production, import, and export data for different stages of the cement cycle. The United States currently supplies approximately 80% of its cement consumption through domestic production and the rest is imported. The average annual net addition of in-use new cement stock over the period 2000-2004 was approximately 83 million metric tons and amounts to 2.3 tons per capita of concrete. Nonfuel carbon dioxide emissions (42 million metric tons per year) from the calcination phase of cement manufacture account for 62% of the total 68 million tons per year of cement production residues. The end-of-life cement discards are estimated to be 33 million metric tons per year, of which between 30% and 80% is recycled. A significant portion of the infrastructure in the United States is reaching the end of its useful life and will need to be replaced or rehabilitated; this could require far more cement than might be expected from economic forecasts of demand for cement. ?? 2009 Springer Japan.

Estimating State-Specific Contributions to PM2.5- and O3-Related Health Burden from Residential Combustion and Electricity Generating Unit Emissions in the United States

PubMed Central

Penn, Stefani L.; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Woody, Matthew; Heiger-Bernays, Wendy; Tripodis, Yorghos; Levy, Jonathan I.

2016-01-01

Background: Residential combustion (RC) and electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions adversely impact air quality and human health by increasing ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Studies to date have not isolated contributing emissions by state of origin (source-state), which is necessary for policy makers to determine efficient strategies to decrease health impacts. Objectives: In this study, we aimed to estimate health impacts (premature mortalities) attributable to PM2.5 and O3 from RC and EGU emissions by precursor species, source sector, and source-state in the continental United States for 2005. Methods: We used the Community Multiscale Air Quality model employing the decoupled direct method to quantify changes in air quality and epidemiological evidence to determine concentration–response functions to calculate associated health impacts. Results: We estimated 21,000 premature mortalities per year from EGU emissions, driven by sulfur dioxide emissions forming PM2.5. More than half of EGU health impacts are attributable to emissions from eight states with significant coal combustion and large downwind populations. We estimate 10,000 premature mortalities per year from RC emissions, driven by primary PM2.5 emissions. States with large populations and significant residential wood combustion dominate RC health impacts. Annual mortality risk per thousand tons of precursor emissions (health damage functions) varied significantly across source-states for both source sectors and all precursor pollutants. Conclusions: Our findings reinforce the importance of pollutant-specific, location-specific, and source-specific models of health impacts in design of health-risk minimizing emissions control policies. Citation: Penn SL, Arunachalam S, Woody M, Heiger-Bernays W, Tripodis Y, Levy JI. 2017. Estimating state-specific contributions to PM2.5- and O3-related health burden from residential combustion and electricity generating unit emissions in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:324–332; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP550 PMID:27586513

The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program: A Model for the United States

Treesearch

M. F. Burger; D. J. Adams; T. Post; L. Sommers; B. Swift

2005-01-01

The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program, modeled after the National Audubon Society?s Important Bird Areas Program, is based on legislation signed by Governor Pataki in 1997. New York is the first state in the nation to enact such a program. The BCA Program seeks to provide a comprehensive, ecosystem approach to conserving birds and their habitats on...

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2018-01-08

This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

Comparison of CRD, APU, and state models for Iowa corn and soybeans and North Dakota barley and spring wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V.

1983-01-01

A comparison was made among the CEAS crop reporting district (CRD), agrophysical unit (APU), and state level multiple regression yield models for corn and soybeans in Iowa and barley and spring wheat in North Dakota. The best predictions were made by the state model for North Dakota spring wheat, by the APU models for barley, by the CRD models for Iowa soybeans, and by APU covariance models for Iowa corn. Because of this lack of consistency of model performance, CRD models would be recommended due to the availability of the data.

Aspects of oceanic forcing of drought over Southwest Asia and the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoell, Andrew

An exceptionally severe drought affected much of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during 1998 -- 2002, with maxima over Southwest Asia and the United States. Previous research has suggested that the oceans played an important role in the hemispheric drought, with oceanic links to tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection highlighted as important for Southwest Asia, and several additional ocean regions suggested as important for the United States. Here, the regional and hemispheric circulation response to tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection is examined for both Southwest Asia and the United States, and the relative importance of individual sea surface temperature areas are explored for United States precipitation. For Southwest Asia, the regional thermodynamic forcing of precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere circulation are related to the leading pattern of Indian Ocean precipitation and its intraseasonal and interannual contributions. Both intraseasonal and interannual timescales are associated with baroclinic Gill-Matsuno-like circulation responses extending over southern Asia, but the interannual component also has a strong equivalent-barotropic circulation. A stationary barotropic Rossby wave extending over North America is associated with interannual tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection and is supported by barotropic ray tracing. For United States regions, historical SST and precipitation links are identified for 1948 -- 1997, and the importance of these links are assessed during the 1998 -- 2002 drought using a linear regression model. The reconstructed precipitation has good correspondence for the Southwest and Southeast United States, but is not able to reproduce precipitation variability over the Northwest and Central United States, especially Texas.

LACIE: Wheat yield models for the United States, revision A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

For abstract, see volume 1 N77-30577. The enclosed maps indicate the areal coverage of the various models for spring (durum and other spring) and winter wheat. The given regions are the combination of several climatic divisions and many times comprise an entire state.

Cesar Chavez--Grade Five Model Curriculum and Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Dept. of Education, Sacramento.

In this California state curriculum model for grade 5, "United States History and Geography: A New Nation," students study the historical developments leading to the discovery and colonization of North America by European countries and the ensuing interactions between Native Americans, Europeans, and enslaved Americans. The curriculum…

Toward disentangling the effect of hydrologic and nitrogen source changes from 1992 to 2001 on incremental nitrogen yield in the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Md Jahangir; Goodall, Jonathan L.

2012-04-01

The goal of this research was to quantify the relative impact of hydrologic and nitrogen source changes on incremental nitrogen yield in the contiguous United States. Using nitrogen source estimates from various federal data bases, remotely sensed land use data from the National Land Cover Data program, and observed instream loadings from the United States Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network program, we calibrated and applied the spatially referenced regression model SPARROW to estimate incremental nitrogen yield for the contiguous United States. We ran different model scenarios to separate the effects of changes in source contributions from hydrologic changes for the years 1992 and 2001, assuming that only state conditions changed and that model coefficients describing the stream water-quality response to changes in state conditions remained constant between 1992 and 2001. Model results show a decrease of 8.2% in the median incremental nitrogen yield over the period of analysis with the vast majority of this decrease due to changes in hydrologic conditions rather than decreases in nitrogen sources. For example, when we changed the 1992 version of the model to have nitrogen source data from 2001, the model results showed only a small increase in median incremental nitrogen yield (0.12%). However, when we changed the 1992 version of the model to have hydrologic conditions from 2001, model results showed a decrease of approximately 8.7% in median incremental nitrogen yield. We did, however, find notable differences in incremental yield estimates for different sources of nitrogen after controlling for hydrologic changes, particularly for population related sources. For example, the median incremental yield for population related sources increased by 8.4% after controlling for hydrologic changes. This is in contrast to a 2.8% decrease in population related sources when hydrologic changes are included in the analysis. Likewise we found that median incremental yield from urban watersheds increased by 6.8% after controlling for hydrologic changes—in contrast to the median incremental nitrogen yield from cropland watersheds, which decreased by 2.1% over the same time period. These results suggest that, after accounting for hydrologic changes, population related sources became a more significant contributor of nitrogen yield to streams in the contiguous United States over the period of analysis. However, this study was not able to account for the influence of human management practices such as improvements in wastewater treatment plants or Best Management Practices that likely improved water quality, due to a lack of data for quantifying the impact of these practices for the study area.

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States

PubMed Central

Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best. Additionally, an ensemble of these and simpler, less analytically intensive approaches performed even better. Wildfire hotspot forecast models using all model types were evaluated in a simulation mode to assess the net benefits of forecasts in the context of law enforcement resource reallocations. Our analyses show that such hotspot tools could yield large positive net benefits for the tribes in terms of suppression expenditures averted for incendiary wildfires but that the hotspot tools were less likely to be beneficial for addressing outbreaks of non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires. PMID:28769549

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States.

PubMed

Prestemon, Jeffrey P; Butry, David T; Thomas, Douglas S

2016-01-01

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best. Additionally, an ensemble of these and simpler, less analytically intensive approaches performed even better. Wildfire hotspot forecast models using all model types were evaluated in a simulation mode to assess the net benefits of forecasts in the context of law enforcement resource reallocations. Our analyses show that such hotspot tools could yield large positive net benefits for the tribes in terms of suppression expenditures averted for incendiary wildfires but that the hotspot tools were less likely to be beneficial for addressing outbreaks of non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires.

A simple methodology to produce flood risk maps consistent with FEMA's base flood elevation maps: Implementation and validation over the entire contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Katz, B. G.; Li, S.; Lohmann, D.

2011-12-01

In the United States, government agencies as well as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) use flood inundation maps associated with the 100-year return period (base flood elevation, BFE), produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as the basis for flood insurance. A credibility check of the flood risk hydraulic models, often employed by insurance companies, is their ability to reasonably reproduce FEMA's BFE maps. We present results from the implementation of a flood modeling methodology aimed towards reproducing FEMA's BFE maps at a very fine spatial resolution using a computationally parsimonious, yet robust, hydraulic model. The hydraulic model used in this study has two components: one for simulating flooding of the river channel and adjacent floodplain, and the other for simulating flooding in the remainder of the catchment. The first component is based on a 1-D wave propagation model, while the second component is based on a 2-D diffusive wave model. The 1-D component captures the flooding from large-scale river transport (including upstream effects), while the 2-D component captures the flooding from local rainfall. The study domain consists of the contiguous United States, hydrologically subdivided into catchments averaging about 500 km2 in area, at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. Using historical daily precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the precipitation associated with the 100-year return period event was computed for each catchment and was input to the hydraulic model. Flood extent from the FEMA BFE maps is reasonably replicated by the 1-D component of the model (riverine flooding). FEMA's BFE maps only represent the riverine flooding component and are unavailable for many regions of the USA. However, this modeling methodology (1-D and 2-D components together) covers the entire contiguous USA. This study is part of a larger modeling effort from Risk Management Solutions° (RMS) to estimate flood risk associated with extreme precipitation events in the USA. Towards this greater objective, state-of-the-art models of flood hazard and stochastic precipitation are being implemented over the contiguous United States. Results from the successful implementation of the modeling methodology will be presented.

Using bioprocess stoichiometry to build a plant-wide mass balance based steady-state WWTP model.

PubMed

Ekama, G A

2009-05-01

Steady-state models are useful for design of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) because they allow reactor sizes and interconnecting flows to be simply determined from explicit equations in terms of unit operation performance criteria. Once the overall WWTP scheme is established and the main system defining parameters of the individual unit operations estimated, dynamic models can be applied to the connected unit operations to refine their design and evaluate their performance under dynamic flow and load conditions. To model anaerobic digestion (AD) within plant-wide WWTP models, not only COD and nitrogen (N) but also carbon (C) fluxes entering the AD need to be defined. Current plant-wide models, like benchmark simulation model No 2 (BSM2), impose a C flux at the AD influent. In this paper, the COD and N mass balance steady-state models of activated sludge (AS) organics degradation, nitrification and denitrification (ND) and anaerobic (AD) and aerobic (AerD) digestion of wastewater sludge are extended and linked with bioprocess transformation stoichiometry to form C, H, O, N, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and charge mass balance based models so that also C (and H and O) can be tracked through the whole WWTP. By assigning a stoichiometric composition (x, y, z and a in C(x)H(y)O(z)N(a)) to each of the five main influent wastewater organic fractions and ammonia, these, and the products generated from them via the biological processes, are tracked through the WWTP. The model is applied to two theoretical case study WWTPs treating the same raw wastewater (WW) to the same final sludge residual biodegradable COD. It is demonstrated that much useful information can be generated with the relatively simple steady-state models to aid WWTP layout design and track the different products exiting the WWTP via the solid, liquid and gas streams, such as aerobic versus anaerobic digestion of waste activated sludge, N loads in recycle streams, methane production for energy recovery and green house gas (CO(2), CH(4)) generation. To reduce trial and error usage of WWTP simulation software, it is recommended that they are extended to include pre-processors based on mass balance steady-state models to assist with WWTP layout design, unit operation selection, reactor sizing, option evaluation and comparison and wastewater characterization before dynamic simulation.

Political Gender Inequality and Infant Mortality in the United States, 1990–2012

PubMed Central

Homan, Patricia

2017-01-01

Although gender inequality has been recognized as a crucial factor influencing population health in the developing world, research has not yet thoroughly documented the role it may play in shaping U.S. infant mortality rates (IMRs). This study uses administrative data with fixed-effects and random-effects models to (1) investigate the relationship between political gender inequality in state legislatures and state infant mortality rates in the United States from 1990 to 2012, and (2) project the population level costs associated with women’s underrepresentation in 2012. Results indicate that higher percentages of women in state legislatures are associated with reduced IMRs, both between states and within-states over time. According to model predictions, if women were at parity with men in state legislatures, the expected number of infant deaths in the U.S. in 2012 would have been lower by approximately 14.6% (3,478 infant deaths). These findings underscore the importance of women’s political representation for population health. PMID:28458098

Political gender inequality and infant mortality in the United States, 1990-2012.

PubMed

Homan, Patricia

2017-06-01

Although gender inequality has been recognized as a crucial factor influencing population health in the developing world, research has not yet thoroughly documented the role it may play in shaping U.S. infant mortality rates (IMRs). This study uses administrative data with fixed-effects and random-effects models to (1) investigate the relationship between political gender inequality in state legislatures and state infant mortality rates in the United States from 1990 to 2012, and (2) project the population level costs associated with women's underrepresentation in 2012. Results indicate that higher percentages of women in state legislatures are associated with reduced IMRs, both between states and within-states over time. According to model predictions, if women were at parity with men in state legislatures, the expected number of infant deaths in the U.S. in 2012 would have been lower by approximately 14.6% (3,478 infant deaths). These findings underscore the importance of women's political representation for population health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2002-01-03

This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materialsmore » modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.« less

Why Has the Health-Promoting Prison Concept Failed to Translate to the United States?

PubMed

Woodall, James

2018-05-01

Two decades since the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe published a report on health promotion in prison that stimulated further debate on the concept of the "health-promoting prison," this article discusses the extent to which the concept has translated to the United States. One predicted indicator of success for the health-promoting prison movement was the expansion of activity beyond European borders; yet 2 decades since the European model was put forward, there has been very limited activity in the United States. This "Critical Issues and Trends" article suggests reasons why this translation has failed to occur.

Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Seong, Jeong C; Park, Tae H; Ko, Joon H; Chang, Seo I; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Mehdi, Mohammed R

2011-11-01

Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN®. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and façade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying Electricity Capacity at Risk to Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Newmark, R. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Cohen, S. M.

2016-12-01

Thermoelectric plants supply 85% of electricity generation in the United States. Under a warming climate, the performance of these power plants may be reduced, as thermoelectric generation is dependent upon cool ambient temperatures and sufficient water supplies at adequate temperatures. In this study, we assess the vulnerability and reliability of 1,100 operational power plants (2015) across the contiguous United States under a comprehensive set of climate scenarios (five Global Circulation Models each with four Representative Concentration Pathways). We model individual power plant capacities using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution model (TP2M) coupled with the Water Balance Model (WBM) at a daily temporal resolution and 5x5 km spatial resolution. Together, these models calculate power plant capacity losses that account for geophysical constraints and river network dynamics. Potential losses at the single-plant level are put into a regional energy security context by assessing the collective system-level reliability at the North-American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions. Results show that the thermoelectric sector at the national level has low vulnerability under the contemporary climate and that system-level reliability in terms of available thermoelectric resources relative to thermoelectric demand is sufficient. Under future climates scenarios, changes in water availability and warm ambient temperatures lead to constraints on operational capacity and increased vulnerability at individual power plant sites across all regions in the United States. However, there is a strong disparity in regional vulnerability trends and magnitudes that arise from each region's climate, hydrology and technology mix. Despite increases in vulnerabilities at the individual power plant level, regional energy systems may still be reliable (with no system failures) due to sufficient back-up reserve capacities.

Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, Gabriel J.; Kennedy, Casey D.; Liu, Zhongfang; Stalker, Jeremy

2011-12-01

The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land-atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however, have thus far shown limited power to replicate observed large-scale variation in U.S. surface water isotope ratios. Here we develop a geographic information system-based model to predict long-term annual average surface water isotope ratios across the contiguous United States. We use elevation-explicit, gridded precipitation isotope maps as model input and data from a U.S. Geological Survey monitoring program for validation. We find that models incorporating monthly variation in precipitation-evapotranspiration (P-E) amounts account for the majority (>89%) of isotopic variation and have reduced regional bias relative to models that do not consider intra-annual P-E effects on catchment water balance. Residuals from the water balance model exhibit strong spatial patterning and correlations that suggest model residuals isolate additional hydrological signal. We use interpolated model residuals to generate optimized prediction maps for U.S. surface water δ2H and δ18O values. We show that the modeled surface water values represent a relatively accurate and unbiased proxy for drinking water isotope ratios across the United States, making these data products useful in ecological and criminal forensics applications that require estimates of the local environmental water isotope variation across large geographic regions.

WebStart WEPS: Remote data access and model execution functionality added to WEPS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a daily time step, process based wind erosion model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS). WEPS simulates climate and management driven changes to the surface/vegetation/soil state on a daily b...

Performance Characteristics of Automotive Engines in the United States : Report No. 7. Mercedes Benz Model OM617 Diesel Engine.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-01-01

Experimental data were obtained in dynamometer tests of the Mercedes Benz Model OM617 diesel engine to determine fuel consumption and emissions (hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitroge, and smoke) at steady-state engine-operating modes. The o...

Performance Characteristics of Automotive Engines in the United States : Report No. 8. Mitsubishi Model 6DS7 Diesel Engine.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-08-01

Experimental data were obtained in dynamometer tests of the Mitsubishi Model 6DS7 diesel engine to determine fuel consumption and emissions (hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, and smoke) at steady-state engine operating modes. The obje...

Automatic Welding Control Using a State Variable Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-06-01

A-A10 610 NAVEAL POSTGRADUATE SCH4O.M CEAY CA0/ 13/ SAUTOMATIC WELDING CONTROL USING A STATE VARIABLE MODEL.W()JUN 79 W V "my UNCLASSIFIED...taverse Drive Unit // Jbint Path /Fixed Track 34 (servomotor positioning). Additional controls of heave (vertical), roll (angular rotation about the

Forecasting United States heartworm Dirofilaria immitis prevalence in dogs.

PubMed

Bowman, Dwight D; Liu, Yan; McMahan, Christopher S; Nordone, Shila K; Yabsley, Michael J; Lund, Robert B

2016-10-10

This paper forecasts next year's canine heartworm prevalence in the United States from 16 climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 31 million antigen heartworm tests conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on 16 predictive factors, including temperature, precipitation, median household income, local forest and surface water coverage, and presence/absence of eight mosquito species. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county heartworm prevalence for the 5-year period 2011-2015 is 0.727, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The correlation between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county heartworm prevalence is 0.940, demonstrating significant skill and showing that heartworm prevalence can be forecasted reasonably accurately. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see higher than normal heartworm activity. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

APPLYING LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE UNITED STATES SPECIAL OPERATIONS COMMAND’S HUMAN PERFORMANCE PROGRAM TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCES COMPREHENSIVE AIRMAN FITNESS

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

implementation, focusing physical training on the mission specific requirements of the individual similar to an athletic sports model, increasing access to...initiative as a mechanism to help maintain the resiliency, health, and welfare of its force.1 As Air Force Instruction (AFI) 90-506 states, the strategy ...implementation of Tactical Athlete Programs, which provide tailored workout plans and nutrition education that prepare service members to meet the physical

Optimal tree increment models for the Northeastern United Statesq

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2003-01-01

used the potential relative increment (PRI) methodology to develop optimal tree diameter growth models for the Northeastern United States. Thirty species from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Database yielded 69,676 individuals, which were then reduced to fast-growing subsets for PRI analysis. For instance, only 14 individuals from the greater than 6,300-tree eastern...

Advancement of a soil parameters geodatabase for the modeling assessment of conservation practice outcomes in the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

US-ModSoilParms-TEMPLE is a database composed of a set of geographic databases functionally storing soil-spatial units and soil hydraulic, physical, and chemical parameters for three agriculture management simulation models, SWAT, APEX, and ALMANAC. This paper introduces the updated US-ModSoilParms-...

Predicting the oral pharmacokinetic profiles of multiple-unit (pellet) dosage forms using a modeling and simulation approach coupled with biorelevant dissolution testing: case example diclofenac sodium.

PubMed

Kambayashi, Atsushi; Blume, Henning; Dressman, Jennifer B

2014-07-01

The objective of this research was to characterize the dissolution profile of a poorly soluble drug, diclofenac, from a commercially available multiple-unit enteric coated dosage form, Diclo-Puren® capsules, and to develop a predictive model for its oral pharmacokinetic profile. The paddle method was used to obtain the dissolution profiles of this dosage form in biorelevant media, with the exposure to simulated gastric conditions being varied in order to simulate the gastric emptying behavior of pellets. A modified Noyes-Whitney theory was subsequently fitted to the dissolution data. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for multiple-unit dosage forms was designed using STELLA® software and coupled with the biorelevant dissolution profiles in order to simulate the plasma concentration profiles of diclofenac from Diclo-Puren® capsule in both the fasted and fed state in humans. Gastric emptying kinetics relevant to multiple-units pellets were incorporated into the PBPK model by setting up a virtual patient population to account for physiological variations in emptying kinetics. Using in vitro biorelevant dissolution coupled with in silico PBPK modeling and simulation it was possible to predict the plasma profile of this multiple-unit formulation of diclofenac after oral administration in both the fasted and fed state. This approach might be useful to predict variability in the plasma profiles for other drugs housed in multiple-unit dosage forms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Oral and maxillofacial surgery residency training in the United States: what can we learn].

PubMed

Ren, Y F

2017-04-09

China is currently in the process of establishing formal residency training programs in oral and maxillofacial surgery and other medical and dental specialties. Regulatory agencies, and educational and academic institutions in China are exploring mechanisms, goals and standards of residency training that meet the needs of the Chinese healthcare system. This article provides an introduction of residency training in oral and maxillofacial surgery in the United States, with emphasis on the accreditation standard by the Commission on Dental Accreditation. As there are fundamental differences in the medical and dental education systems between China and United States, the training standards in the United States may not be entirely applicable in China. A competency-based training model that focus on overall competencies in medical knowledge, clinical skills and values at the time of graduation should be taken into consideration in a Chinese residency training program in oral and maxillofacial surgery.

Groundwater depletion in the United States (1900−2008)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

2013-01-01

A natural consequence of groundwater withdrawals is the removal of water from subsurface storage, but the overall rates and magnitude of groundwater depletion in the United States are not well characterized. This study evaluates long-term cumulative depletion volumes in 40 separate aquifers or areas and one land use category in the United States, bringing together information from the literature and from new analyses. Depletion is directly calculated using calibrated groundwater models, analytical approaches, or volumetric budget analyses for multiple aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater depletion in the United States during 1900–2008 totals approximately 1,000 cubic kilometers (km3). Furthermore, the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most recent period (2000–2008) when the depletion rate averaged almost 25 km3 per year (compared to 9.2 km3 per year averaged over the 1900–2008 timeframe).

Energy Markets in the United States: The Influence of Politics, Regulations, and Markets on Energy Development in the Oil and Gas and Wind Industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maguire, Karen Kay

2011-12-01

My dissertation focuses on the influence of politics, policies, and markets in determining oil and natural gas and wind energy development. In the first chapter, I examine the role of federal elected political influence and market factors in determining the acres of oil and natural gas leases issued on Bureau of Management (BLM) lands in the western United States between 1978 and 2008. I seek to determine if the political party and ideology of the federal political environment influence the number of acres that are leased and if there is disparate federal political influence in states that have a large amount of federal lands. Using a random effects Tobit model for a 17-state sample of the westernmost states in the contiguous United States, I find that more conservative federal political influence leads to additional leasing. The results are consistent across Senate committee leaders, Senate majority leadership, and the President's office. The further found that the influence of politics on leasing is not stronger in states with more federal lands. In the second chapter, I analyze the influence of state and federal political party changes and market factors on state oil and natural gas permitting. My findings, using a first-differenced empirical model for two samples, a 19-state sample, from 1990--2007, and a 14-state sample, from 1977--2007, indicate that the influence of state political party changes are trumped by economic factors. Oil and gas prices are the main drivers of permitting changes, while the state political party changes for the state legislatures and Governor's office are consistently not significant. In the third chapter I focus on the role of electricity markets and renewable energy regulation in wind development across the United States. My findings, using a random effects Tobit model with a 25-state sample, from 1994--2008, indicate that the implementation of state Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS), the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC), and Green Power Purchase Programs (GPP) positively influence a state's wind capacity. The influence of green power purchase programs continues to increase in the years after implementation, while for RPS it diminishes. The role of market factors is less significant.

Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-01

This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the United States Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model ...

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Jie Zhu; Ge Sun; Wenhong Li; Yu Zhang; Guofang Miao; Asko Noormets; Steve G. McNulty; John S. King; Mukesh Kumar; Xuan Wang

2017-01-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, ground- water recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wet- land ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrol- ogy, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-...

From the Civil War to 9/11: Democracy and the Right to a Fair Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcus, Alan S.

2011-01-01

In the United States, the right to a fair trial is protected by the Constitution. The ideal of justice is a critical underpinning of the democracy. However, while the United States is a model of an honorable and just court system most of the time, our constitutional rights are occasionally stretched or broken. The rationale is often national…

Projected tree species redistribution under climate change: Implications for ecosystem vulnerability across protected areas in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Scott G. Zolkos; Patrick Jantz; Tina Cormier; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel W. McKenney; Scott J. Goetz

2015-01-01

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and...

Defense Acquisition Review Journal. Volume 16, Number 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

current status of the conventional munitions industry in the United States today and provides an economic theory for reviving this declining, but...Avant, 2007). United States Naval War College Professor Larry McCabe observed that an economic aspect to the emergence of private security...flows, feedback, and nonlinear relationships in managerial control. The methodology’s ability to model many diverse system components (e.g., work

Some timber product market and trade implications of an invasive defoliator: the case of Asian lymantria in the United States

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Ruhong Li

2008-01-01

US policy and forest product industry decisionmakers need quantitative information about the magnitude of timber product market impacts from the possible introduction of an exotic and potentially dangerous defoliating forest pest. We applied the Global Forest Products Model to evaluate the effects on the United States of an invasion by the Asian gypsy (...

H2USA: Siting Refueling Stations in the Northeast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc W; Muratori, Matteo; Zuboy, Jarett

2017-11-01

To achieve cost-effective deployment of both fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen stations, the number of vehicles and public stations must grow together in areas of highest demand. This fact sheet introduces two advanced modeling tools and presents preliminary analysis of the hydrogen refueling station locations needed to support early consumer demand for FCEVs in the Northeast United States. United States.

Codes and standards for structural wood products and their use in the United States

Treesearch

David W. Green; Roland Hernandez

1998-01-01

The system of model building codes and voluntary product standards used in the United States for structural lumber and engineered wood products can appear complicated and confusing to those introduced to it for the first time. This paper is a discussion of the various types of structural wood products commonly used in U.S. residential and commercial construction and...

Predicting response of fuel load to future changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

Chi Zhang; Hanqin Tian; Yuhang Wang; Tao Zeng; Yongqiang Liu

2010-01-01

The model projected ecosystem carbon dynamics were incorporated into the default (contemporary) fuel load map developed by FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) to estimate the dynamics of fuel load in the Southern United States in response to projected changes in climate and atmosphere (CO2 and nitrogen deposition) from 2002 to 2050. The study results...

Deep Belief Networks Learn Context Dependent Behavior

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-26

cortical mechanisms for goal- directed behavior. J Cogn Neurosci 17: 1115–1129. 13. Koene RA, Hasselmo ME (2005) An integrate-and-fire model of prefrontal... Neuroscience and Neural Technology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 2 Center of Excellence for Learning in Education...America, 4 Department of Psychology and Graduate Program for Neuroscience , Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America Abstract With

Comparison of Elementary Social Studies Curricula of Turkey and the United States on Values Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merey, Zihni; Kus, Zafer; Karatekin, Kadir

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to compare the social studies teaching curricula of Turkey and the United States in terms of values education. The study is a model case study that relies upon one of the qualitative research methods. The data come from the elementary social studies curricula of both countries through the documents analysis method. The…

Relational Inequality: Gender Earnings Inequality in U.S. and Japanese Manufacturing Plants in the Early 1980s

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Avent-Holt, Dustin; Tomaskovic-Devey, Donald

2012-01-01

We examine the relational model of inequality using samples of employer-employee matched data from manufacturing plants in the United States and Japan. We argue that gender is a salient status characteristic in both the United States and Japan, but because of differences in gender politics, wage inequality will vary more across U.S. workplaces…

Quantifying Trade-Offs Between Economic and Ecological Objectives in Uneven-Aged Mixed- Species Forests in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Benedict Schulte; Kenneth E. Skog

2004-01-01

This paper summarizes research on the management of uneven-aged loblolly pine-hardwood stands in the southern United States. This research was composed of three elements: (1) modeling of biological growth of uneven-aged stands of mixed loblolly pine and hardwood trees, (2) optimization to discover sustainable regimes that would best meet economic and ecological...

Application of Linked Regional Scale Growth, Biogeography, and Economic Models for Southeastern United States Pine Forests

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert Abt; Bryan Smith; Ge Sun; Michael Gavazzi; John Bartlett; Brian Murray; Robert A. Mickler; John D. Aber

2000-01-01

The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forests

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert, et al. Abt

2000-01-01

The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

Recycling, certification, and international trade of paper and paperboard: Demand in Germany and the United States

Treesearch

Jaana Korhonen; Anne Toppinen; Jari Kuuluvainen; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick Cubbage

2017-01-01

On the basis of data from 2000 to 2010, we investigated the separate effects of the uptake of forest certification and the usage of recycled paper on imports of paper and paperboard into Germany and the United States. Using panel data methods and based on a conventional Armington trade model, we find that the effects of two main forest...

Atlas of climate change effects in 150 bird species of the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Stephen Matthews; Raymond O' Connor; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2004-01-01

NOTE: Instructions for navigating this publication can be found on the front cover. This atlas documents the current and potential future distribution of 150 common bird species in the Eastern United States. Distribution data for individual species were derived from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1981 to 1990. Regression tree analysis was used to model the BBS...

Harvesting choices and timber supply among landowners in the southern United States

Treesearch

Daowei Zhang; Xing Sun; Brett J. Butler; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2015-01-01

The recent rise of institutional timberland ownership has led to a significant change in the structure and conduct of the timber industry in the United States. In this study,we apply a two-period harvest model to assess the timber harvesting behavior of various landowners at the stand level by utilizing USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data for nine...

Climate change and wildlife in the southern United States: potential effects and management options

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Roger W. Perry; Kathleen E. Franzreb; Susan C. Loeb; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph; Eric Winters; E.M. Fucik; M.A. Kwiatkowski; B.R. Parresol; J.D. Austin; G.W. Tanner

2014-01-01

In the southeastern United States, climate models project a temperature increase of 2-10°C by 2100 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007). Climate change is already evident. Since the 1970s, average temperature has risen by about 1°C, with the greatest seasonal temperature increase during winter. Average precipitation during autumn has increased by 30% since...

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

Treesearch

Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

2016-01-01

Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...

Further Validation of the Psychosocial Costs of Racism to Whites Scale on a Sample of University Students in the Southeastern United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sifford, Amy; Ng, Kok-Mun; Wang, Chuang

2009-01-01

We examined the factor structure of the Psychosocial Costs of Racism to Whites Scale (PCRW; Spanierman & Heppner, 2004) on 766 White American university students from the southeastern United States. Results from confirmatory factor analyses supported the 3-factor model proposed by Spanierman and Heppner (2004). The construct validity of the…

Variation in loblolly pine ring microfibril angle in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Lewis Jordan; Rechun He; Daniel B. Hall; Alexander III Clark; Richard F. Daniels

2007-01-01

The effect of physiographic region on microfibril angle (MFA) in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) in the southern United States was evaluated. MFA was determined at 1.4, 4.6, 7.6, 10.7, and 13.7 m up the stem of 59 trees, representing five physiographic regions. A nonlinear mixed-effects model was developed to test for regional differences in the...

Smoke modeling in support of management of forest landscapes in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Gary L. Achtemeier

2009-01-01

The impact of smoke from forest burning on air quality is a threat to the use of prescribed fire to manage woodlands in the eastern United States. Population shifts from urban centers to the wildland/urban interface have increased human exposures to smoke. Tighter national ambient air quality standards restrict the amount of smoke released over an area. This article...

Address of the Honorable Edwin Meese III, Attorney General of the United States, before the National Conference on Juvenile Justice Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meese, Edwin, III

Drug law enforcement has become the number one criminal justice priority of the United States Department of Justice and is an area of great concern to those involved in the juvenile justice system. The new philosophy of juvenile justice holds juveniles responsible for their conduct, emphasizing an accountability or justice model which focuses on…

Moving Out: Transition to Non-Residence among Resident Fathers in the United States, 1968-1997

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gupta, Sanjiv; Smock, Pamela J.; Manning, Wendy D.

2004-01-01

This article provides the first individual-level estimates of the change over time in the probability of non-residence for initially resident fathers in the United States. Drawing on the 1968-1997 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we used discrete-time event history models to compute the probabilities of non-residence for six 5-year…

Estimating the spatial distribution of wintering little brown bat populations in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Tinsley, Karl; Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Jennifer A. Szymanski,

2014-01-01

Depicting the spatial distribution of wildlife species is an important first step in developing management and conservation programs for particular species. Accurate representation of a species distribution is important for predicting the effects of climate change, land-use change, management activities, disease, and other landscape-level processes on wildlife populations. We developed models to estimate the spatial distribution of little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) wintering populations in the United States east of the 100th meridian, based on known hibernacula locations. From this data, we developed several scenarios of wintering population counts per county that incorporated uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the hibernacula as well as uncertainty in the size of the current little brown bat population. We assessed the variability in our results resulting from effects of uncertainty. Despite considerable uncertainty in the known locations of overwintering little brown bats in the eastern United States, we believe that models accurately depicting the effects of the uncertainty are useful for making management decisions as these models are a coherent organization of the best available information.

Quantifying the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines

PubMed Central

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J.; Grossmann, Iris; Apt, Jay

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that if the United States is to generate 20% of its electricity from wind, over 50 GW will be required from shallow offshore turbines. Hurricanes are a potential risk to these turbines. Turbine tower buckling has been observed in typhoons, but no offshore wind turbines have yet been built in the United States. We present a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in an offshore wind farm. We apply this model to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the United States. In the most vulnerable areas now being actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely to be destroyed in a 20-y period. Reasonable mitigation measures—increasing the design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into rapidly changing winds, and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk—can greatly enhance the probability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States’ electricity needs. PMID:22331894

TMDL RUSLE MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a simplified spreadsheet modeling approach for characterizing and prioritizing sources of sediment loadings from watersheds in the United States. A simplified modeling approach was developed to evaluate sediment loadings from watersheds and selected land segments. ...

Changes in Black-legged Tick Population in New England with Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, S.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is one of the most frequently reported vector-borne diseases in the United States. In the Northeastern United States, vector transmission is maintained in a horizontal transmission cycle between the vector, the black-legged ticks, and the vertebrate reservoir hosts, which include white-tailed deer, rodents and other medium to large sized mammals. Predicting how vector populations change with future climate change is critical to understanding disease spread in the future, and for developing suitable regional adaptation strategies. For the United States, these predictions have mostly been made using regressions based on field and lab studies, or using spatial suitability studies. However, the relation between tick populations at various life-cycle stages and climate variables are complex, necessitating a mechanistic approach. In this study, we present a framework for driving a mechanistic tick population model with high-resolution regional climate modeling projections. The goal is to estimate changes in black-legged tick populations in New England for the 21st century. The tick population model used is based on the mechanistic approach of Ogden et al., (2005) developed for Canada. Dynamically downscaled climate projections at a 3-kms resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to drive the tick population model.

"Life without nuclear power": A nuclear plant retirement formulation model and guide based on economics. San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station case: Economic impacts and reliability considerations leading to plant retirement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasko, Frank

Traditionally, electric utilities have been slow to change and very bureaucratic in nature. This culture, in and of itself, has now contributed to a high percentage of United States electric utilities operating uneconomical nuclear plants (Crooks, 2014). The economic picture behind owning and operating United States nuclear plants is less than favorable for many reasons including rising fuel, capital and operating costs (EUCG, 2012). This doctoral dissertation is specifically focused on life without nuclear power. The purpose of this dissertation is to create a model and guide that will provide electric utilities who currently operate or will operate uneconomical nuclear plants the opportunity to economically assess whether or not their nuclear plant should be retired. This economic assessment and stakeholder analysis will provide local government, academia and communities the opportunity to understand how Southern California Edison (SCE) embraced system upgrade import and "voltage support" opportunities to replace "base load" generation from San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) versus building new replacement generation facilities. This model and guide will help eliminate the need to build large replacement generation units as demonstrated in the SONGS case analysis. The application of The Nuclear Power Retirement Model and Guide will provide electric utilities with economic assessment parameters and an evaluation assessment progression needed to better evaluate when an uneconomical nuclear plant should be retired. It will provide electric utilities the opportunity to utilize sound policy, planning and development skill sets when making this difficult decision. There are currently 62 nuclear power plants (with 100 nuclear reactors) operating in the United States (EIA, 2014). From this group, 38 are at risk of early retirement based on the work of Cooper (2013). As demonstrated in my model, 35 of the 38 nuclear power plants qualify to move to the economic assessment review and then on to the stakeholder cost benefit analysis (if model qualifications are met) leading to a final plant retirement decision. This application via the model and guide, in turn, will lead electric utilities to explore system upgrade import opportunities and mitigation measures versus building new replacement generation facilities. United States nuclear reactors are licensed for 40 years with a 20 year extension available prior to the expiration date (EIA, 2013). Since late 2012, electric power companies have announced the early retirement of four uneconomical nuclear power plants while other studies have indicated that as many as 70 percent of United States nuclear power plants are potentially at risk for early retirement (Crooks, 2014 and Cooper, 2013). A high percentage of these aforementioned nuclear plants have operating licenses that will not expire until 2030 and beyond. Thus, for the most part, replacement power contingency planning has not been initiated for these plants or is still in preliminary stages. The recent nuclear plant retirements are the first since 1998 (EIA, 2013). Decisions to retire the plants involved concerns over maintenance and repair costs as well as declining profitability (EIA, 2013). In addition, the Energy Information Administration (2010-2012) released data that demonstrated that the worst 25 percent of United States nuclear plants are far more expensive to operate and generate electricity than new gas plants. It is equally important to understand and explain the economic and power replacement implications to both ratepayers and end-users. A SONGS case study analysis will review the economic, operational and political challenges that SCE faced leading to the retirement decision of SONGS. As preface to the case study, replacement steam generators (RSGs) were installed in Unit 2 in 2009 and in Unit 3 in 2010. In January 2012, while Unit 2 was down for routine maintenance, a small leak was discovered inside a steam generator in Unit 3. Because of the situation, both units remained shut down to evaluate the cause of the leakage and to make repairs. SCE submitted plans to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to re-start Unit 2 at reduced power. However, concerns over the length of the review process and the high costs associated with steam generator repairs led SCE to retire both reactors (SCE SONGS Fact Sheets, 2012-2013). Finally, collaborative resource power replacement planning is needed more than ever as nuclear facilities in the United States are now being retired for economic related reasons (Crooks, 2014). This collaborative power replacement process and implementation must encompass all relevant stakeholders including state grid operators, ratepayers, shareholders and the electric utility company.

Modeling on the grand scale: LANDFIRE lessons learned

Treesearch

Kori Blankenship; Jim Smith; Randy Swaty; Ayn J. Shlisky; Jeannie Patton; Sarah Hagen

2012-01-01

Between 2004 and 2009, the LANDFIRE project facilitated the creation of approximately 1,200 unique state-andtransition models (STMs) for all major ecosystems in the United States. The primary goal of the modeling effort was to create a consistent and comprehensive set of STMs describing reference conditions and to inform the mapping of a subset of LANDFIRE’s spatial...

Cross-cultural comparison of long-term care in the United States and Finland: Research done through a short-term study-abroad experience.

PubMed

Kruger, Tina M; Gilland, Sarah; Frank, Jacquelyn B; Murphy, Bridget C; English, Courtney; Meade, Jana; Morrow, Kaylee; Rush, Evan

2017-01-01

In May 2014, a short-term study-abroad experience was conducted in Finland through a course offered at Indiana State University (ISU). Students and faculty from ISU and Eastern Illinois University participated in the experience, which was created to facilitate a cross-cultural comparison of long-term-care settings in the United States and Finland. With its outstanding system of caring for the health and social needs of its aging populace, Finland is a logical model to examine when considering ways to improve the quality of life for older adults who require care in the United States . Those participating in the course visited a series of long-term-care facilities in the region surrounding Terre Haute, Indiana, then travelled to Lappeenranta, Finland to visit parallel sites. Through limited-participation observation and semistructured interviews, similarities and differences in experiences, educations, and policies affecting long-term care workers in the United States and Finland were identified and are described here.

The Impact of State and Federal Accountability Standards upon the Implementation of Inclusion in Johnston County, NC High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Rex Ivan

2012-01-01

As student accountability models have become the norm in the United States, first in individual states such as North Carolina and then throughout the nation with No Child Left Behind (NCLB), the implementation of inclusion as a curriculum delivery model for students with disabilities has been explored. The purpose of this study was to examine how…

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Falcone, James A.

2013-01-01

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

The National Map seamless digital elevation model specifications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archuleta, Christy-Ann M.; Constance, Eric W.; Arundel, Samantha T.; Lowe, Amanda J.; Mantey, Kimberly S.; Phillips, Lori A.

2017-08-02

This specification documents the requirements and standards used to produce the seamless elevation layers for The National Map of the United States. Seamless elevation data are available for the conterminous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. territories, in three different resolutions—1/3-arc-second, 1-arc-second, and 2-arc-second. These specifications include requirements and standards information about source data requirements, spatial reference system, distribution tiling schemes, horizontal resolution, vertical accuracy, digital elevation model surface treatment, georeferencing, data source and tile dates, distribution and supporting file formats, void areas, metadata, spatial metadata, and quality assurance and control.

78 FR 20179 - Changes to Representation of Others Before The United States Patent and Trademark Office

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-03

...The United States Patent and Trademark Office (Office or USPTO) is adopting the new USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct (USPTO Rules), which are based on the American Bar Association's (ABA) Model Rules of Professional Conduct (ABA Model Rules), which were published in 1983, substantially revised in 2003 and updated through 2012. The Office has also revised the existing procedural rules governing disciplinary investigations and proceedings. These changes will enable the Office to better protect the public while also providing practitioners with substantially uniform disciplinary rules across multiple jurisdictions.

Terrestrial ecosystems - Isobioclimates of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cress, Jill J.; Sayre, Roger G.; Comer, Patrick; Warner, Harumi

2009-01-01

However, the biophysical stratification approach used for the ecosystems modeling effort required a single climate layer that accurately reflected regional variation in wet/dry gradients and hot/cold gradients, with a manageable number of classes. Therefore, the data layers for thermotypes and ombrotypes were combined, yielding 127 unique thermotype-ombrotype combinations.The isobioclimates image shows ombrotypic regions (dry/wet gradients) for each thermotypic (warm/cold) region. Additional information about this map and any of the data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States.

PubMed

Lo, Nathan C; Hotez, Peter J

2017-09-01

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage. To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles. Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales. Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs. A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust. This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

Effects of atmospheric variability on energy utilization and conservation. [Space heating energy demand modeling; Program HEATLOAD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E.R.; Johnson, G.R.; Somervell, W.L. Jr.

Research conducted between 1 July 1975 and 31 October 1976 is reported. A ''physical-adaptive'' model of the space-conditioning demand for energy and its response to changes in weather regimes was developed. This model includes parameters pertaining to engineering factors of building construction, to weather-related factors, and to socio-economic factors. Preliminary testing of several components of the model on the city of Greeley, Colorado, yielded most encouraging results. Other components, especially those pertaining to socio-economic factors, are still under development. Expansion of model applications to different types of structures and larger regions is presently underway. A CRT-display model for energy demandmore » within the conterminous United States also has passed preliminary tests. A major effort was expended to obtain disaggregated data on energy use from utility companies throughout the United States. The study of atmospheric variability revealed that the 22- to 26-day vacillation in the potential and kinetic energy modes of the Northern Hemisphere is related to the behavior of the planetary long-waves, and that the midwinter dip in zonal available potential energy is reflected in the development of blocking highs. Attempts to classify weather patterns over the eastern and central United States have proceeded satisfactorily to the point where testing of our method for longer time periods appears desirable.« less

The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Kevin; Mooney, Meghan E; Sigrin, Benjamin O

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistentmore » with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.« less

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Precipitation into the Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS): Its Impacts on the Weather and Hydrology in the Southwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, H.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2002-05-01

As one aspect of the study of interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, and hydrology, there has been on going efforts to assimilate soil moisture data using coupled and uncoupled land surface-atmosphere hydrology models. The assimilation of soil moisture is expected to have influence due to its vital function in regulating runoff, partitioning latent and sensible heat, and through determining groundwater recharge. Soil moisture can provides long-term memory or persistence of the surface boundary condition, influencing large-scale atmospheric circulation over subsequent intervals. Now that the application of satellite remote sensing has become obvious to provide input parameters associated with land surface processes to the numerical models, this study utilizes remotely sensed precipitation data, PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) to assimilate soil moisture and other soil surface characteristics. Compared to the other earlier modeling experiments of seasonal or interannual temporal scale in continental or global spatial scale, this study investigates short term predictability in regional scale with the southwest United States as a study area, which has unique metrological and geographical features that provide special difficulties for mesoscale modeling. Research objectives are to assimilate the PERSIANN precipitation data into the mesoscale model for model initialization, examine the influence and memory of model precipitation errors on the land surface and atmospheric processes, and thereby study the short term predictability of meteorology and hydrology in the Southwest United States.

Testing a Theoretical Model of Immigration Transition and Physical Activity.

PubMed

Chang, Sun Ju; Im, Eun-Ok

2015-01-01

The purposes of the study were to develop a theoretical model to explain the relationships between immigration transition and midlife women's physical activity and test the relationships among the major variables of the model. A theoretical model, which was developed based on transitions theory and the midlife women's attitudes toward physical activity theory, consists of 4 major variables, including length of stay in the United States, country of birth, level of acculturation, and midlife women's physical activity. To test the theoretical model, a secondary analysis with data from 127 Hispanic women and 123 non-Hispanic (NH) Asian women in a national Internet study was used. Among the major variables of the model, length of stay in the United States was negatively associated with physical activity in Hispanic women. Level of acculturation in NH Asian women was positively correlated with women's physical activity. Country of birth and level of acculturation were significant factors that influenced physical activity in both Hispanic and NH Asian women. The findings support the theoretical model that was developed to examine relationships between immigration transition and physical activity; it shows that immigration transition can play an essential role in influencing health behaviors of immigrant populations in the United States. The NH theoretical model can be widely used in nursing practice and research that focus on immigrant women and their health behaviors. Health care providers need to consider the influences of immigration transition to promote immigrant women's physical activity.

A personality theory of U.S. migration geography.

PubMed

Stetzer, F C

1985-01-01

"Neoclassical models of migration fail to account adequately for individual differences in propensity to migrate, rates of emigration from states and cities, and the generally high rates of population circulation common in the United States. This article proposes that migration propensity is related to an individual's personality. Using the facts that personality traits are generationally regenerative, both through inheritance and culture, and that the United States was settled in a series of migration waves from east to west, this theory predicts a spatial structuring of emigration rates which closely correspond to actual rates for states and major cities." excerpt

Assessment and Mapping of Forest Parcel Sizes

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler; Susan L. King

2005-01-01

A method for analyzing and mapping forest parcel sizes in the Northeastern United States is presented. A decision tree model was created that predicts forest parcel size from spatially explicit predictor variables: population density, State, percentage forest land cover, and road density. The model correctly predicted parcel size for 60 percent of the observations in a...

Survival Comparison of Patients With Cystic Fibrosis in Canada and the United States: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Stephenson, Anne L; Sykes, Jenna; Stanojevic, Sanja; Quon, Bradley S; Marshall, Bruce C; Petren, Kristofer; Ostrenga, Josh; Fink, Aliza K; Elbert, Alexander; Goss, Christopher H

2017-04-18

In 2011, the median age of survival of patients with cystic fibrosis reported in the United States was 36.8 years, compared with 48.5 years in Canada. Direct comparison of survival estimates between national registries is challenging because of inherent differences in methodologies used, data processing techniques, and ascertainment bias. To use a standardized approach to calculate cystic fibrosis survival estimates and to explore differences between Canada and the United States. Population-based study. 42 Canadian cystic fibrosis clinics and 110 U.S. cystic fibrosis care centers. Patients followed in the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry (CCFR) and U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) between 1990 and 2013. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival between patients followed in the CCFR (n = 5941) and those in the CFFPR (n = 45 448). Multivariable models were used to adjust for factors known to be associated with survival. Median age of survival in patients with cystic fibrosis increased in both countries between 1990 and 2013; however, in 1995 and 2005, survival in Canada increased at a faster rate than in the United States (P < 0.001). On the basis of contemporary data from 2009 to 2013, the median age of survival in Canada was 10 years greater than in the United States (50.9 vs. 40.6 years, respectively). The adjusted risk for death was 34% lower in Canada than the United States (hazard ratio, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.54 to 0.81]). A greater proportion of patients in Canada received transplants (10.3% vs. 6.5%, respectively [standardized difference, 13.7]). Differences in survival between U.S. and Canadian patients varied according to U.S. patients' insurance status. Ascertainment bias due to missing data or nonrandom loss to follow-up might affect the results. Differences in cystic fibrosis survival between Canada and the United States persisted after adjustment for risk factors associated with survival, except for private-insurance status among U.S. patients. Differential access to transplantation, increased posttransplant survival, and differences in health care systems may, in part, explain the Canadian survival advantage. U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation.

Tracing Fifth-Grade Students' Epistemologies in Modeling through Their Participation in a Model-Based Curriculum Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baek, Hamin

2013-01-01

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest in scientific practices as a reform focus in K-12 science education of the United States. In this context, scientific practices refer to practices that have family resemblance to scientists' professional practices and simultaneously are pedagogically accessible and useful to students. In…

Migration from Mexico to the United States and subsequent risk for depressive and anxiety disorders: a cross-national study.

PubMed

Breslau, Joshua; Borges, Guilherme; Tancredi, Daniel; Saito, Naomi; Kravitz, Richard; Hinton, Ladson; Vega, William; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio

2011-04-01

Migration is suspected to increase risk for depressive and anxiety disorders. To test the hypothesized increase in risk for depressive and anxiety disorders after arrival in the United States among Mexican migrants. We combined data from surveys conducted separately in Mexico and the United States that used the same diagnostic interview. Discrete time survival models were specified to estimate the relative odds of first onset of depressive disorders (major depressive episode and dysthymia) and anxiety disorders (generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder) among migrants after their arrival in the United States compared with nonmigrant Mexicans who have a migrant in their immediate family. Population surveys in the United States and Mexico. Two thousand five hundred nineteen nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico and 554 Mexican migrants in the United States. First onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder. After arrival in the United States, migrants had a significantly higher risk for first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder than did nonmigrant family members of migrants in Mexico (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.94). Associations between migration and disorder varied across birth cohorts. Elevated risk among migrants relative to nonmigrants was restricted to the 2 younger cohorts (those aged 18-25 or 26-35 years at interview). In the most recent birth cohort, the association between migration and first onset of any depressive or anxiety disorder was particularly strong (odds ratio, 3.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-5.53). This is, to our knowledge, the first study to compare risk for first onset of psychiatric disorder between representative samples of migrants in the United States and nonmigrants in Mexico. The findings are consistent with the hypothesized adverse effect of migration from Mexico to the United States on the mental health of migrants, but only among migrants in recent birth cohorts.

Cotton gin trash in the western United States: Resource inventory and energy conversion characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haase, S.G.; Quinn, M.W.; Whittier, J.P.

1993-12-31

The disposal of wastes associated with the processing of cotton is posing increasing problems for cotton gin operators in the western United States. Traditional disposal methods, such as open-air incineration and landfilling are no longer adequate due to increasing environmental concerns. This paper evaluates the technical, economic and environmental feasibility for cotton gin trash to serve as an energy resource. Cotton gin trash has been quantified, by county, in the five cotton-growing states of the western United States. The energy conversion technology that appears to offer the most promise is gasification. An economic evaluation model has been developed that willmore » allow gin operators to analyze their own situation to determine the profitability of converting gin trash to energy.« less

U.S. Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity (ATTACC) for Munitions (AFM)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

Army Training Support Center USDA United States Department of Agriculture USGS United States Geological Survey USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation...Range condition is a function of climate, soil , and hydrology. The munitions impact, constituent load, and range condition are modeled using AFM...For ArcGIS v2 to attain expected concentrations of munitions constituents and corresponding risk due to exposure through soil - and water-related

Estimating the Impact of the 2004 Alaskan Forest Fires on Episodic Particulate Matter Pollution over the Eastern United States through Assimilation of Satellite Derived Aerosol Optical Depths in a Regional Air Quality Model

EPA Science Inventory

During the summer of 2004, extensive wildfires burned in Alaska and western Canada; the fires were the largest on record for Alaska. Smoke from these fires was observed over the continental United States in satellite images. Recent studies have quantified the impacts of the long-...

Missional Imaginations for Theological Education: Mixed Model, Exploratory, Action-Oriented Research Mapping the Theological Identity and Organizational Readiness for Change of Five Theological School Systems in the United States Originating after 1945

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small, Kyle J. A.

2009-01-01

This dissertation explores the formal theologies and organizational readiness for change with a view towards adopting missional prototypes for theological education across a school's (system's) tradition, curriculum, and structure. The research assessed five theological schools in the United States through an exploratory, action-oriented,…

Modeling the longitudinal variation in wood specific gravity of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) in the United States

Treesearch

F. Antony; L. R. Schimleck; R. F. Daniels; Alexander Clark; D. B. Hall

2010-01-01

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is a major plantation species grown in the southern United States, producing wood having a multitude of uses including pulp and lumber production. Specific gravity (SG) is an important property used to measure the quality of wood produced, and it varies regionally and within the tree with height and radius. SG at different height levels...

The economics of fuel management: Wildfire, invasive plants, and the dynamics of sagebrush rangelands in the western United States

Treesearch

Michael H. Taylor; Kimberly Rollins; Mimako Kobayashi; Robin J. Tausch

2013-01-01

In this article we develop a simulation model to evaluate the economic efficiency of fuel treatments and apply it to two sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin of the western United States: the Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe and Mountain Big Sagebrush ecosystems. These ecosystems face the two most prominent concerns in sagebrush ecosystems relative to wildfire: annual grass...

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeff Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon IV; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.Weestimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Future forest aboveground carbon dynamics in the central United States: the importance of forest demographic processes

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Wen J. Wang; Jacob S. Fraser; Stephen R. Shifley; Brice B. Hanberry; William D. Dijak

2017-01-01

The Central Hardwood Forest (CHF) in the United States is currently a major carbon sink, there are uncertainties in how long the current carbon sink will persist and if the CHF will eventually become a carbon source. We used a multi-model ensemble to investigate aboveground carbon density of the CHF from 2010 to 2300 under current climate. Simulations were done using...

The estimated impact of human papillomavirus vaccine coverage on the lifetime cervical cancer burden among girls currently aged 12 years and younger in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Dunne, Eileen F; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Using a previously published dynamic model, we illustrate the potential benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination among girls currently 12 years or younger in the United States. Increasing vaccine coverage of young girls to 80% would avert 53,300 lifetime cervical cancer cases versus 30% coverage and 28,800 cases versus 50% coverage.

A coupled modeling system for connecting prescribed fire activity data through CMAQ for simulating regional scale air quality

Treesearch

Gary L. Achtemeier; Scott Goodrick; Yongqiang Liu

2005-01-01

The southeastern United Stats - states extending from Virginia to Texas and from the Ohio River southward - (hereafter called the "South") compromise one of the most productive forested areas in the United States. Although the South represents only 24 percent of the U.S. land area, approximately 200 million acres (81 million ha) or 40 percent of the Nation...

Burden of unintended pregnancy in the United States: potential savings with increased use of long-acting reversible contraception.

PubMed

Trussell, James; Henry, Nathaniel; Hassan, Fareen; Prezioso, Alexander; Law, Amy; Filonenko, Anna

2013-02-01

This study evaluated the total costs of unintended pregnancy (UP) in the United States (US) from a third-party health care payer perspective and explored the potential role for long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) in reducing UP and resulting health care expenditure. An economic model was constructed to estimate direct costs of UP as well as the proportion of UP costs that could be attributed to imperfect contraceptive adherence. The model considered all women requiring reversible contraception in the US: the pattern of contraceptive use and the rates of UP were derived from published sources. The costs of UP in the United States and the proportion of total cost that might be avoided by improved adherence through increased use of LARC were estimated. Annual medical costs of UP in the United States were estimated to be $4.6 billion, and 53% of these were attributed to imperfect contraceptive adherence. If 10% of women aged 20-29 years switched from oral contraception to LARC, total costs would be reduced by $288 million per year. Imperfect contraceptive adherence leads to substantial UP and high, avoidable costs. Improved uptake of LARC may generate health care cost savings by reducing contraceptive non-adherence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of unintended pregnancy in the United States: Potential savings with increased use of long-acting reversible contraception

PubMed Central

Trussell, James; Henry, Nathaniel; Hassan, Fareen; Prezioso, Alexander; Law, Amy; Filonenko, Anna

2013-01-01

Background This study evaluated the total costs of unintended pregnancy (UP) in the United States from a third -party health care payer perspective and explored the potential role for long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) in reducing UP and resulting health care expenditure. Study Design An economic model was constructed to estimate direct costs of UP as well as the proportion of UP costs that could be attributed to imperfect contraceptive adherence. The model considered all US women requiring reversible contraception: the pattern of contraceptive use and rates of UP were derived from published sources. The costs of UP in the United States and the proportion of total cost that might be avoided by improved adherence through increased use of LARC were estimated. Results Annual medical costs of UP in the United States were estimated to be $4.5 billion, and 53% of these were attributed to imperfect contraceptive adherence. If 10% of women aged 20–29 years switched from oral contraception to LARC, total costs would be reduced by $288 million per year. Conclusions Imperfect contraceptive adherence leads to substantial unintended pregnancy and high, avoidable costs. Improved uptake of LARC may generate health care cost savings by reducing contraceptive non-adherence. PMID:22959904

Bifurcation of the Yellowstone plume driven by subduction-induced mantle flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, C.; Druken, K. A.; Griffiths, R. W.; Stegman, D. R.

2013-05-01

The causes of volcanism in the northwestern United States over the past 20 million years are strongly contested. Three drivers have been proposed: melting associated with plate subduction; tectonic extension and magmatism resulting from rollback of a subducting slab; or the Yellowstone mantle plume. Observations of the opposing age progression of two neighbouring volcanic chains--the Snake River Plain and High Lava Plains--are often used to argue against a plume origin for the volcanism. Plumes are likely to occur near subduction zones, yet the influence of subduction on the surface expression of mantle plumes is poorly understood. Here we use experiments with a laboratory model to show that the patterns of volcanism in the northwestern United States can be explained by a plume upwelling through mantle that circulates in the wedge beneath a subduction zone. We find that the buoyant plume may be stalled, deformed and partially torn apart by mantle flow induced by the subducting plate. Using plausible model parameters, bifurcation of the plume can reproduce the primary volcanic features observed in the northwestern United States, in particular the opposite progression of two volcanic chains. Our results support the presence of the Yellowstone plume in the northwestern United States, and also highlight the power of plume-subduction interactions to modify surface geology at convergent plate margins.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Min; Zhuang, Qianlai; Cook, D.

2011-08-31

Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) and carbon flux data of AmeriFlux to conduct such a study. We first modify the gross primary production (GPP) modeling in TEM by incorporating EVI and LSWI to account for the effects of the changes of canopy photosynthetic capacity, phenologymore » and water stress. Second, we parameterize and verify the new version of TEM with eddy flux data. We then apply the model to the conterminous United States over the period 2000-2005 at a 0.05-0.05 spatial resolution. We find that the new version of TEM made improvement over the previous version and generally captured the expected temporal and spatial patterns of regional carbon dynamics. We estimate that regional GPP is between 7.02 and 7.78 PgC yr{sup -1} and net primary production (NPP) ranges from 3.81 to 4.38 Pg Cyr{sup -1} and net ecosystem production (NEP) varies within 0.08- 0.73 PgC yr{sup -1} over the period 2000-2005 for the conterminous United States. The uncertainty due to parameterization is 0.34, 0.65 and 0.18 PgC yr{sup -1} for the regional estimates of GPP, NPP and NEP, respectively. The effects of extreme climate and disturbances such as severe drought in 2002 and destructive Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were captured by the model. Our study provides a new independent and more adequate measure of carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, which will benefit studies of carbon-climate feedback and facilitate policy-making of carbon management and climate.« less

Surface and Lightning Sources of Nitrogen Oxides over the United States: Magnitudes, Chemical Evolution, and Outflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudman, Rynda C.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Turquety, Solene; Leinbensperger, E. M.; Murray, L. T.; Wu, Samuel; Gilliland, A. B.; Avery, Melody A.; Bertram, Timothy H.; Brune, W. H.;

Spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time and NPP-driven carbon uptake in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tao; Luo, Yiqi

2008-09-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake is determined largely by C residence times and increases in net primary production (NPP). Therefore, evaluation of C uptake at a regional scale requires knowledge on spatial patterns of both residence times and NPP increases. In this study, we first applied an inverse modeling method to estimate spatial patterns of C residence times in the conterminous United States. Then we combined the spatial patterns of estimated residence times with a NPP change trend to assess the spatial patterns of regional C uptake in the United States. The inverse analysis was done by using the genetic algorithm and was based on 12 observed data sets of C pools and fluxes. Residence times were estimated by minimizing the total deviation between modeled and observed values. Our results showed that the estimated C residence times were highly heterogeneous over the conterminous United States, with most of the regions having values between 15 and 65 years; and the averaged C residence time was 46 years. The estimated C uptake for the whole conterminous United States was 0.15 P g C a-1. Large portions of the taken C were stored in soil for grassland and cropland (47-70%) but in plant pools for forests and woodlands (73-82%). The proportion of C uptake in soil was found to be determined primarily by C residence times and be independent of the magnitude of NPP increase. Therefore, accurate estimation of spatial patterns of C residence times is crucial for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem C uptake.

Land-atmosphere interactions over the continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Xubin

This paper briefly discusses four suggested modifications for land surface modeling in climate models. The impact of the modifications on climate simulations is analyzed with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) land surface model. It is found that the modifications can improve BATS simulations. In particular, the sensitivity of BATS to the prescribed value of physical root fraction which cannot be observed from satellite remote sensing or field experiments is improved. These modifications significantly reduce the excessive summer land surface temperature over the continental United States simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2) coupled with BATS.more » A land-atmosphere interaction mechanism involving energy and water cycles is proposed to explain the results. 9 refs., 1 fig.« less

A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, J.

1976-01-01

The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.

Bring out your dead!: A study of income inequality and life expectancy in the United States, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Hill, Terrence D; Jorgenson, Andrew

2018-01-01

We test whether income inequality undermines female and male life expectancy in the United States. We employ data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia and two-way fixed effects to model state-level average life expectancy as a function of multiple income inequality measures and time-varying characteristics. We find that state-level income inequality is inversely associated with female and male life expectancy. We observe this general pattern across four measures of income inequality and under the rigorous conditions of state-specific and year-specific fixed effects. If income inequality undermines life expectancy, redistribution policies could actually improve the health of states. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A latent low-dimensional common input drives a pool of motor neurons: a probabilistic latent state-space model.

PubMed

Feeney, Daniel F; Meyer, François G; Noone, Nicholas; Enoka, Roger M

2017-10-01

Motor neurons appear to be activated with a common input signal that modulates the discharge activity of all neurons in the motor nucleus. It has proven difficult for neurophysiologists to quantify the variability in a common input signal, but characterization of such a signal may improve our understanding of how the activation signal varies across motor tasks. Contemporary methods of quantifying the common input to motor neurons rely on compiling discrete action potentials into continuous time series, assuming the motor pool acts as a linear filter, and requiring signals to be of sufficient duration for frequency analysis. We introduce a space-state model in which the discharge activity of motor neurons is modeled as inhomogeneous Poisson processes and propose a method to quantify an abstract latent trajectory that represents the common input received by motor neurons. The approach also approximates the variation in synaptic noise in the common input signal. The model is validated with four data sets: a simulation of 120 motor units, a pair of integrate-and-fire neurons with a Renshaw cell providing inhibitory feedback, the discharge activity of 10 integrate-and-fire neurons, and the discharge times of concurrently active motor units during an isometric voluntary contraction. The simulations revealed that a latent state-space model is able to quantify the trajectory and variability of the common input signal across all four conditions. When compared with the cumulative spike train method of characterizing common input, the state-space approach was more sensitive to the details of the common input current and was less influenced by the duration of the signal. The state-space approach appears to be capable of detecting rather modest changes in common input signals across conditions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We propose a state-space model that explicitly delineates a common input signal sent to motor neurons and the physiological noise inherent in synaptic signal transmission. This is the first application of a deterministic state-space model to represent the discharge characteristics of motor units during voluntary contractions. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

UNITED STATES METEOROLOGICAL DATA - DAILY AND HOURLY FILES TO SUPPORT PREDICTIVE EXPOSURE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

ORD numerical models for pesticide exposure include a model of spray drift (AgDisp), a cropland pesticide persistence model (PRZM), a surface water exposure model (EXAMS), and a model of fish bioaccumulation (BASS). A unified climatological database for these models has been asse...

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Evaluation of global horizontal irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance models at locations across the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lave, Matthew; Hayes, William; Pohl, Andrew

2015-02-02

We report an evaluation of the accuracy of combinations of models that estimate plane-of-array (POA) irradiance from measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI). This estimation involves two steps: 1) decomposition of GHI into direct and diffuse horizontal components and 2) transposition of direct and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) to POA irradiance. Measured GHI and coincident measured POA irradiance from a variety of climates within the United States were used to evaluate combinations of decomposition and transposition models. A few locations also had DHI measurements, allowing for decoupled analysis of either the decomposition or the transposition models alone. Results suggest that decompositionmore » models had mean bias differences (modeled versus measured) that vary with climate. Transposition model mean bias differences depended more on the model than the location. Lastly, when only GHI measurements were available and combinations of decomposition and transposition models were considered, the smallest mean bias differences were typically found for combinations which included the Hay/Davies transposition model.« less

Data Encoding using Periodic Nano-Optical Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vosoogh-Grayli, Siamack

Successful trials have been made through a designed algorithm to quantize, compress and optically encode unsigned 8 bit integer values in the form of images using Nano optical features. The periodicity of the Nano-scale features (Nano-gratings) have been designed and investigated both theoretically and experimentally to create distinct states of variation (three on states and one off state). The use of easy to manufacture and machine readable encoded data in secured authentication media has been employed previously in bar-codes for bi-state (binary) models and in color barcodes for multiple state models. This work has focused on implementing 4 states of variation for unit information through periodic Nano-optical structures that separate an incident wavelength into distinct colors (variation states) in order to create an encoding system. Compared to barcodes and magnetic stripes in secured finite length storage media the proposed system encodes and stores more data. The benefits of multiple states of variation in an encoding unit are 1) increased numerically representable range 2) increased storage density and 3) decreased number of typical set elements for any ergodic or semi-ergodic source that emits these encoding units. A thorough investigation has targeted the effects of the use of multi-varied state Nano-optical features on data storage density and consequent data transmission rates. The results show that use of Nano-optical features for encoding data yields a data storage density of circa 800 Kbits/in2 via the implementation of commercially available high resolution flatbed scanner systems for readout. Such storage density is far greater than commercial finite length secured storage media such as Barcode family with maximum practical density of 1kbits/in2 and highest density magnetic stripe cards with maximum density circa 3 Kbits/in2. The numerically representable range of the proposed encoding unit for 4 states of variation is [0 255]. The number of typical set elements for an ergodic source emitting the optical encoding units compared to a bi-state encoding unit (bit) shows a 36 orders of magnitude decrease for the error probability interval of [0 0.01]. The algorithms for the proposed encoding system have been implemented in MATLAB and the Nano-optical structures have been fabricated using Electron Beam Lithography on optical medium.

Final CSAPR Revisions Rule (77 FR 10324)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA finalizes revisions to the Transport Rule (76 FR 48208). These revisions address discrepancies in unit-specific modeling assumptions that affect the proper calculation of Transport Rule state budgets and assurance levels in several states.

Immigration and suicidal behavior among Mexicans and Mexican Americans.

PubMed

Borges, Guilherme; Breslau, Joshua; Su, Maxwell; Miller, Matthew; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio

2009-04-01

We examined migration to the United States as a risk factor for suicidal behavior among people of Mexican origin. We pooled data from 2 nationally representative surveys in the United States (2001-2003; n = 1284) and Mexico (2001-2002; n = 5782). We used discrete time survival models to account for time-varying and time-invariant characteristics, including psychiatric disorders. Risk for suicidal ideation was higher among Mexicans with a family member in the United States (odds ratio [OR] = 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06, 2.11), Mexican-born immigrants who arrived in the United States at 12 years or younger (OR = 1.84; 95% CI = 1.09, 3.09), and US-born Mexican Americans (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.03, 2.38) than among Mexicans with neither a history of migration to the United States nor a family member currently living there. Risk for suicide attempts was also higher among Mexicans with a family member in the United States (OR = 1.68; 95% CI = 1.13, 2.52) and US-born Mexican Americans (OR = 1.97; 95% CI = 1.06, 3.65). Selection bias caused by differential migration or differential return migration of persons at higher risk of suicidal ideation or attempt did not account for these findings. Public health efforts should focus on the impact of Mexico-US migration on family members of migrants and on US-born Mexican Americans.

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units - A model partnership program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennerline, Donald E.; Childs, Dawn E.

2017-04-20

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (CRU) program is a unique model of cooperative partnership among the USGS, other U.S. Department of the Interior and Federal agencies, universities, State fish and wildlife agencies, and the Wildlife Management Institute. These partnerships are maintained as one of the USGS’s strongest links to Federal and State land and natural resource management agencies.Established in 1935 to meet the need for trained professionals in the growing field of wildlife management, the program currently consists of 40 Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units located on university campuses in 38 States and supports 119 research scientist positions when fully funded. The threefold mission of the CRU program is to (1) conduct scientific research for the management of fish, wildlife, and other natural resources; (2) provide technical assistance to natural resource managers in the application of scientific information to natural resource policy and management; and (3) train future natural resource professionals.

Pharmaceutical Price Controls and Minimum Efficacy Regulation: Evidence from the United States and Italy

PubMed Central

Atella, Vincenzo; Bhattacharya, Jay; Carbonari, Lorenzo

2012-01-01

Objective This article examines the relationship between drug price and drug quality and how it varies across two of the most common regulatory regimes in the pharmaceutical market: minimum efficacy standards (MES) and a mix of MES and price control mechanisms (MES + PC). Data Sources Our primary data source is the Tufts-New England Medical Center-Cost Effectiveness Analysis Registry which have been merged with price data taken from MEPS (for the United States) and AIFA (for Italy). Study Design Through a simple model of adverse selection we model the interaction between firms, heterogeneous buyers, and the regulator. Principal Findings The theoretical analysis provides two results. First, an MES regime provides greater incentives to produce high-quality drugs. Second, an MES + PC mix reduces the difference in price between the highest and lowest quality drugs on the market. Conclusion The empirical analysis based on United States and Italian data corroborates these results. PMID:22091623

The public health benefits of insulation retrofits in existing housing in the United States

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Nishioka, Yurika; Spengler, John D

2003-01-01

Background Methodological limitations make it difficult to quantify the public health benefits of energy efficiency programs. To address this issue, we developed a risk-based model to estimate the health benefits associated with marginal energy usage reductions and applied the model to a hypothetical case study of insulation retrofits in single-family homes in the United States. Methods We modeled energy savings with a regression model that extrapolated findings from an energy simulation program. Reductions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions and particle precursors (SO2 and NOx) were quantified using fuel-specific emission factors and marginal electricity analyses. Estimates of population exposure per unit emissions, varying by location and source type, were extrapolated from past dispersion model runs. Concentration-response functions for morbidity and mortality from PM2.5 were derived from the epidemiological literature, and economic values were assigned to health outcomes based on willingness to pay studies. Results In total, the insulation retrofits would save 800 TBTU (8 × 1014 British Thermal Units) per year across 46 million homes, resulting in 3,100 fewer tons of PM2.5, 100,000 fewer tons of NOx, and 190,000 fewer tons of SO2 per year. These emission reductions are associated with outcomes including 240 fewer deaths, 6,500 fewer asthma attacks, and 110,000 fewer restricted activity days per year. At a state level, the health benefits per unit energy savings vary by an order of magnitude, illustrating that multiple factors (including population patterns and energy sources) influence health benefit estimates. The health benefits correspond to $1.3 billion per year in externalities averted, compared with $5.9 billion per year in economic savings. Conclusion In spite of significant uncertainties related to the interpretation of PM2.5 health effects and other dimensions of the model, our analysis demonstrates that a risk-based methodology is viable for national-level energy efficiency programs. PMID:12740041

Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain model.

PubMed

Tada, Toshifumi; Kumada, Takashi; Toyoda, Hidenori; Ohisa, Masayuki; Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko

2018-04-19

The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated. A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model. In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age. Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history.

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

Alcohol and Homicide in Russia and the United States: A Comparative Analysis*

PubMed Central

Landberg, Jonas; Norström, Thor

2011-01-01

Objective: The object of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of the aggregate relationship between alcohol and homicide in Russia and in the United States. The comparison was based on the magnitude of the alcohol effect, the alcohol attributable fraction (AAF), and the degree to which total consumption could account for trends in homicide. Method: We analyzed total and sex-specific homicide rates for the age groups 15–64 years, 15–34 years, and 35–64 years. The study period was 1959–1998 for Russia and 1950–2002 for the United States. For the United States, alcohol consumption was gauged by sales of alcohol; for Russia, estimated unrecorded consumption was included as well. The data were analyzed through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. Results: The results show that, for Russia as well as for the United States, a 1 -L increase in consumption was associated with an increase in homicides of about 10%, although the absolute effect was markedly larger in Russia because of differences in homicide rates. The AAF estimates suggested that 73% and 57% of the homicides would be attributable to alcohol in Russia and in the United States, respectively. Most of the temporal variation in the Russian homicide rate could be accounted for by the trend in drinking, whereas the U.S. trend in total alcohol consumption had a more limited ability to predict the trend in homicides. Conclusions: We conclude that the role of alcohol in homicide seems to be larger in Russia than in the United States. PMID:21906499

Mapping Curie temperature depth in the western United States with a fractal model for crustal magnetization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouligand, C.; Glen, J.M.G.; Blakely, R.J.

2009-01-01

We have revisited the problem of mapping depth to the Curie temperature isotherm from magnetic anomalies in an attempt to provide a measure of crustal temperatures in the western United States. Such methods are based on the estimation of the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources, which is assumed to correspond to the temperature at which rocks lose their spontaneous magnetization. In this study, we test and apply a method based on the spectral analysis of magnetic anomalies. Early spectral analysis methods assumed that crustal magnetization is a completely uncorrelated function of position. Our method incorporates a more realistic representation where magnetization has a fractal distribution defined by three independent parameters: the depths to the top and bottom of magnetic sources and a fractal parameter related to the geology. The predictions of this model are compatible with radial power spectra obtained from aeromagnetic data in the western United States. Model parameters are mapped by estimating their value within a sliding window swept over the study area. The method works well on synthetic data sets when one of the three parameters is specified in advance. The application of this method to western United States magnetic compilations, assuming a constant fractal parameter, allowed us to detect robust long-wavelength variations in the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources. Depending on the geologic and geophysical context, these features may result from variations in depth to the Curie temperature isotherm, depth to the mantle, depth to the base of volcanic rocks, or geologic settings that affect the value of the fractal parameter. Depth to the bottom of magnetic sources shows several features correlated with prominent heat flow anomalies. It also shows some features absent in the map of heat flow. Independent geophysical and geologic data sets are examined to determine their origin, thereby providing new insights on the thermal and geologic crustal structure of the western United States.

Impact of the Gulf of California SST on simulating precipitation and crop productivity in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Prasad, A. K.; Stack, D. H.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

2012-12-01

Like other ecosystems, agricultural productivity is substantially affected by climate factors. Therefore, accurate climatic data (i.e. precipitation, temperature, and radiation) is crucial to simulating crop yields. In order to understand and anticipate climate change and its impacts on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States, the WRF regional climate model (RCM) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were employed for simulating crop production. 19 years of WRF RCM output show that there is a strong dry bias during the warm season, especially in Arizona. Consequently, the APSIM crop model indicates very low crop yields in this region. We suspect that the coarse resolution of reanalysis data could not resolve the relatively warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Gulf of California (GC), causing the SST to be up to 10 degrees lower than the climatology. In the Southwestern United States, a significant amount of precipitation is associated with North American Monsoon (NAM). During the monsoon season, the low-level moisture is advected to the Southwestern United States via the GC, which is known to be the dominant moisture source. Thus, high-resolution SST data in the GC is required for RCM simulations to accurately represent a reasonable amount of precipitation in the region, allowing reliable evaluation of the impacts on regional ecosystems.and evaluate impacts on regional ecosystems. To evaluate the influence of SST on agriculture in the Southwestern U.S., two sets of numerical simulations were constructed: a control, using unresolved SST of GC, and daily updated SST data from the MODIS satellite sensor. The meteorological drivers from each of the 6 year RCM runs were provided as input to the APSIM model to determine the crop yield. Analyses of the simulated crop production, and the interannual variation of the meteorological drivers, demonstrate the influence of SST on crop yields in the Southwestern United States.

The distribution of meteoric 36Cl/Cl in the United States: A comparison of models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moysey, S.; Davis, S.N.; Zreda, M.; Cecil, L.D.

2003-01-01

The natural distribution of 36Cl/Cl in groundwater across the continental United States has recently been reported by Davis et al. (2003). In this paper, the large-scale processes and atmospheric sources of 36Cl and chloride responsible for controlling the observed 36Cl/Cl distribution are discussed. The dominant process that affects 36Cl/Cl in meteoric groundwater at the continental scale is the fallout of stable chloride from the atmosphere, which is mainly derived from oceanic sources. Atmospheric circulation transports marine chloride to the continental interior, where distance from the coast, topography, and wind patterns define the chloride distribution. The only major deviation from this pattern is observed in northern Utah and southern Idaho where it is inferred that a continental source of chloride exists in the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah. In contrast to previous studies, the atmospheric flux of 36Cl to the land surface was found to be approximately constant over the United States, without a strong correlation between local 36Cl fallout and annual precipitation. However, the correlation between these variables was significantly improved (R 2=0.15 to R 2=0.55) when data from the southeastern USA, which presumably have lower than average atmospheric 36Cl concentrations, were excluded. The total mean flux of 36Cl over the continental United States and total global mean flux of 36Cl are calculated to be 30.5??7.0 and 19.6??4.5 atoms m-2 s-1, respectively. The 36Cl/Cl distribution calculated by Bentley et al. (1996) underestimates the magnitude and variability observed for the measured 36Cl/Cl distribution across the continental United States. The model proposed by Hainsworth (1994) provides the best overall fit to the observed 36Cl/Cl distribution in this study. A process-oriented model by Phillips (2000) generally overestimates 36Cl/Cl in most parts of the country and has several significant local departures from the empirical data.

Estimates of the timing of reductions in genital warts and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia after onset of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Dunne, Eileen F; Markowitz, Lauri E

2013-08-20

The objective of this study was to estimate the number of years after onset of a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program before notable reductions in genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) will occur in teenagers and young adults in the United States. We applied a previously published model of HPV vaccination in the United States and focused on the timing of reductions in genital warts among both sexes and reductions in CIN 2/3 among females. Using different coverage scenarios, the lowest being consistent with current 3-dose coverage in the United States, we estimated the number of years before reductions of 10%, 25%, and 50% would be observed after onset of an HPV vaccination program for ages 12-26 years. The model suggested female-only HPV vaccination in the intermediate coverage scenario will result in a 10% reduction in genital warts within 2-4 years for females aged 15-19 years and a 10% reduction in CIN 2/3 among females aged 20-29 years within 7-11 years. Coverage had a major impact on when reductions would be observed. For example, in the higher coverage scenario a 25% reduction in CIN2/3 would be observed with 8 years compared with 15 years in the lower coverage scenario. Our model provides estimates of the potential timing and magnitude of the impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 at the population level in the United States. Notable, population-level impacts of HPV vaccination on genital warts and CIN 2/3 can occur within a few years after onset of vaccination, particularly among younger age groups. Our results are generally consistent with early reports of declines in genital warts among youth. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Invasive potential of cattle fever ticks in the southern United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Abstract' Background For >100 years cattle production in the southern United States has been threatened by cattle fever. It is caused by an invasive parasite-vector complex that includes the protozoan hemoparasites Babesia bovis and B. bigemina, which are transmitted among domestic cattle via Rhipicephalus tick vectors of the subgenus Boophilus. In 1906 an eradication effort was started and by 1943 Boophilus ticks had been confined to a narrow tick eradication quarantine area (TEQA) along the Texas-Mexico border. However, a dramatic increase in tick infestations in areas outside the TEQA over the last decade suggests these tick vectors may be poised to re-invade the southern United States. We investigated historical and potential future distributions of climatic habitats of cattle fever ticks to assess the potential for a range expansion. Methods We built robust spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the vector species Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B.) annulatus across the southern United States for three time periods: 1906, present day (2012), and 2050. We used analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to identify persistent tick occurrences and analysis of bias in the climate proximate to these occurrences to identify key environmental parameters associated with the ecology of both species. We then used ecological niche modeling algorithms GARP and Maxent to construct models that related known occurrences of ticks in the TEQA during 2001–2011 with geospatial data layers that summarized important climate parameters at all three time periods. Results We identified persistent tick infestations and specific climate parameters that appear to be drivers of ecological niches of the two tick species. Spatial models projected onto climate data representative of climate in 1906 reproduced historical pre-eradication tick distributions. Present-day predictions, although constrained to areas near the TEQA, extrapolated well onto climate projections for 2050. Conclusions Our models indicate the potential for range expansion of climate suitable for survival of R. microplus and R. annulatus in the southern United States by mid-century, which increases the risk of reintroduction of these ticks and cattle tick fever into major cattle producing areas. PMID:24742062

Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

2008-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario prescriptions were met, using measured Land Cover Trends data to guide patch characteristics and the probability surfaces to guide placement. The approach provides an efficient method for extrapolating historical land-cover trends and is amenable to the incorporation of more detailed and focused studies for the establishment of scenario prescriptions.

Cohort changes in educational disparities in smoking: France, Germany and the United States

PubMed Central

Pampel, Fred; Legleye, Stephane; Goffette, Celine; Piontek, Daniela; Kraus, Ludwig; Khlat, Myriam

2017-01-01

This study investigates the evolution of educational disparities in smoking uptake across cohorts for men and women in three countries. Nationally representative surveys of adults in France, Germany and the United States in 2009–2010 include retrospective measures of age of uptake that are compared for three cohorts (born 1946–1960–1961–1975, and 1976–1992). Discrete logistic regressions and a relative measure of education are used to model smoking histories until age 34. The following patterns are found: a strengthening of educational disparities in the timing of uptake from older to younger cohorts; an earlier occurrence of the strengthening for men than women and for the United States than France or Germany; a faster pace of the epidemic in France than in the United States, and; a divide between the highest level of education and the others in the United States, as opposed to a gradient across categories in France. Those differences in smoking disparities across cohorts, genders and countries help identify the national and temporal circumstances that shape the size and direction of the relationship between education and health and the need for policies that target educational disparities. PMID:25037853

Cohort changes in educational disparities in smoking: France, Germany and the United States.

PubMed

Pampel, Fred; Legleye, Stephane; Goffette, Céline; Piontek, Daniela; Kraus, Ludwig; Khlat, Myriam

2015-02-01

This study investigates the evolution of educational disparities in smoking uptake across cohorts for men and women in three countries. Nationally representative surveys of adults in France, Germany and the United States in 2009-2010 include retrospective measures of age of uptake that are compared for three cohorts (born 1946-1960, 1961-1975, and 1976-1992). Discrete logistic regressions and a relative measure of education are used to model smoking histories until age 34. The following patterns are found: a strengthening of educational disparities in the timing of uptake from older to younger cohorts; an earlier occurrence of the strengthening for men than women and for the United States than France or Germany; a faster pace of the epidemic in France than in the United States, and; a divide between the highest level of education and the others in the United States, as opposed to a gradient across categories in France. Those differences in smoking disparities across cohorts, genders and countries help identify the national and temporal circumstances that shape the size and direction of the relationship between education and health and the need for policies that target educational disparities. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

DOE PAGES

Qin, Zhangcai; Zhuang, Qianlai; Cai, Ximing

2014-06-16

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop–vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that,more » cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO 2eq l –1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO 2eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. Furthermore, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop–specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.« less

Defect evolution and pore collapse in crystalline energetic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, Nathan R.; Winter, Nicholas W.; Reaugh, John E.

2009-04-01

This work examines the use of crystal based continuum mechanics in the context of dynamic loading. In particular, we examine model forms and simulations which are relevant to pore collapse in crystalline energetic materials. Strain localization and the associated generation of heat are important for the initiation of chemical reactions in this context. The crystal mechanics based model serves as a convenient testbed for the interactions among wave motion, slip kinetics, defect generation kinetics and physical length scale. After calibration to available molecular dynamics and single crystal gas gun data for HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine), the model is used to predict behaviors for the collapse of pores under various conditions. Implications for experimental observations are discussed. This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

Integrating Phosphorus Movement with Soil and Water Loss in the Daily Erosion Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sklenar, Tim; Perez-Bidegain, Mario; Cruse, Richard; Gelder, Brian; Herzmann, Daryl

2016-04-01

The Daily Erosion Project (DEP) is an ongoing modelling effort which is now in its second generation. DEP provides comprehensive and dynamic estimates of sediment delivery, soil erosion, and hill slope runoff for agricultural land areas across the Midwestern United States every day for Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC 12) size watersheds. Results are posted every morning on the Internet at dailyerosion.org. Currently DEP covers all of Iowa and portions of Kansas and Minnesota, but expansion of coverage is ongoing. The integration of highly resolute spatial and temporal climate data, soil properties, crop rotation and residue management data affords the opportunity to test the effects of using multiple conservation practices on the transport and fate of water borne nutrients, especially phosphorus, on the Midwestern United States agricultural landscapes. Understanding the interaction of different environmental and land management practices on phosphorus movement will allow data from the DEP to guide conservation efforts as expansion continues into surrounding Midwestern states. The presentation will provide an overview of the DEP technology, including how input data are derived and used to make daily erosion estimates on over 200,000 flowpaths in the modelling area, as well as a discussion of the ongoing phosphorus transport modelling efforts and plans for future expansion (both land area and model functionality).

DAILY SIMULATIONS OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: MODEL PERFORMANCE, SEASONAL DIFFERENCES, AND THE EFFECT OF MODEL UPDATES

EPA Science Inventory

This poster presents analysis of near-realtime air quality simulations over New York State for two summer and one winter season. Simulations were performed as a pilot study between the NOAA, EPA, and NYSDEC, utilizing resources from the national operational NOAA/EPA air quality f...

76 FR 80754 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Kansas: Regional Haze

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-27

... available in the docket for this rulemaking. The supplemental dispersion modeling provided by the State was... determined by using SNCR costs obtained from Jeffrey Unit 1, and scaling the dollar amount using heat input... impact of Kansas BART sources on all Class I areas impacted. NPCA says that the modeling results...

Applying survival analysis to managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine for assessment of tree mortality in the western United States

Treesearch

Fabian Uzoh; Sylvia R. Mori

2012-01-01

A critical component of a growth and yield simulator is an estimate of mortality rates. The mortality models presented here are developed from long-term permanent plots in provinces from throughout the geographic range of ponderosa pine in the United States extending from the Black Hills of South Dakota to the Pacific Coast. The study had two objectives: estimation of...

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Factors that Influence the Retention, Turnover, and Attrition of K-12 Music Teachers in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardner, Robert D.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to construct a profile of K-12 music teachers in the United States and develop a model to predict their retention, turnover, and attrition. Responses to the "Schools and Staffing Survey" from 47,857 K-12 public and private school teachers, including 1,903 music teachers, were analyzed using comparative…

Maritime Situational Awareness Research Infrastructure (MSARI): Requirements and High Level Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Exchange Model (NIEM)-Maritime [16], • Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) database [17], • 2009 United States AIS Database 3, • PASTA -MARE project...upper/lower cases, plural, etc.) is very consistent and is pertinent for MSARI. The 2009 United States AIS and PASTA -MARE project databases, exclusively...designed for AIS, were found too restrictive for MSARI where other types of data are stored. How- ever, some lessons learned of the PASTA -MARE

Investigating the Academic Motivations and Social Experiences of Students from the People's Republic of China Pursuing Graduate Degrees in the United States of America: A Participatory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington, Brad Demetrius

2010-01-01

There is limited research addressing how graduate students from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are supported academically or socially while studying in the United States of America (U.S.). The purpose of this study was to address this gap in the literature by utilizing a participatory action research model in order to collaborate with…

Evaluating the effects of woody biomass production for bioenergy on water quality and hydrology in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Natalie Griffiths; C. Rhett Jackson; Menberu Bitew; Enhao Du; Kellie Vache' ; Jeffrey J. McDonnell; Julian Klaus; Benjamin M. Rau

2016-01-01

Forestry is a dominant industry in the southeastern United States, and there is interest in sustainably growing woody feedstocks for bioenergy in this region. Our project is evaluating the environmental sustainability (water quality, quantity) of growing and managing short-rotation (10-12 yrs) loblolly pine for bioenergy using watershed-scale experimental and modeling ...

A Profile of Substance Abuse, Gender, Crime, and Drug Policy in the United States and Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Judith

2009-01-01

The climate of domestic drug policy in the United States as it pertains to both women and men at the beginning of the 21st century is the criminalization mode of regulation--a mode that is based on the model of addiction as a crime and one that is used to prohibit the use of illegal drugs. In Canada, drug policy is based mainly on the harm…

How can prescribed burning and harvesting restore shortleaf pine-oak woodland at the landscape scale in central United States? Modeling joint effects of harvest and fire regimes

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Wen J. Wang; John M. Kabrick; Brian K. Davidson

2018-01-01

Historical fire regimes in the central United States maintained open-canopy shortleaf pine-oak woodlands on xeric sites. Following large-scale harvest and fire suppression, those woodlands grew denser with more continuous canopy cover, and they gained mesic species at the expense of shortleaf pine. There is high interest in restoring shortleaf pine-oak woodlands; most...

Model estimates of net primary productivity, evaportranspiration, and water use efficiency in the terrestrial ecosystems of the southern United States

Treesearch

Hanqin Tian; Guangsheng Chen; Mingliang Liu; Chi Zhang; Ge Sun; Chaoqun Lu; Xiaofeng Xu; Wei Ren; Shufen Pan; Arthur Chappelka

2010-01-01

The effects of global change on ecosystem productivity and water resources in the southern United States (SUS), a traditionally ‘water-rich’ region and the ‘timber basket’ of the country, are not well quantified. We carried out several simulation experiments to quantify ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET)...

Air-Land Battle Interdiction Model Corps Communications Module.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

raniel R. Alexander Capain,United States Army B.S.gUnitQ States Military Acade y,1975 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the...Chairman, Department of Operations Research Lea ofInformation aLean o ic Sciences 4 3 I. ’k - Pi -,-.’ * I ABSTRACT This thesis provides the detailed...communications is in the midst of a revolu- tionary change from tubes to microchip technology , and an equally revclutionary doctrinal change. The

Modeling of Surface Thermodynamics and Damage Thresholds in the IR and THz Regime

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

Conference on Optical Interactions with Tissue and Cells [18th] Held in San Jose, California on January 22-24, 2007 To order the complete compilation report...United States; c Air Force Reasearch Lab, Human Effectivness Directorate Optical Branch, 2624 Louis Bauer Drive, San Antonio, TX, United States...equation (radial and axial) in a biological system construct. Tissues are represented as multi-layer structures, with optical and thermal properties

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

Muscle length-dependent contribution of motoneuron Cav1.3 channels to force production in model slow motor unit.

PubMed

Kim, Hojeong

2017-07-01

Persistent inward current (PIC)-generating Ca v 1.3 channels in spinal motoneuron dendrites are thought to be actively recruited during normal behaviors. However, whether and how the activation of PIC channels influences force output of motor unit remains elusive. Here, building a physiologically realistic model of slow motor unit I demonstrated that force production induced by the PIC activation is much smaller for short than lengthened muscles during the regular firing of the motoneuron that transitions from the quiescent state by either a brief current pulse at the soma or a brief synaptic excitation at the dendrites. By contrast, the PIC-induced force potentiation was maximal for short muscles when the motoneuron switched from a stable low-frequency firing state to a stable high-frequency firing state by the current pulse at the soma. Under the synaptic excitation at the dendrites, however, the force could not be potentiated by the transitioning of the motoneuron from a low- to a high-frequency firing state due to the simultaneous onset of PIC at the dendrites and firing at the soma. The strong dependency of the input-output relationship of the motor unit on the neuromodulation and Ia afferent inputs for the PIC channels was further shown under static variations in muscle length. Taken together, these findings suggest that the PIC activation in the motoneuron dendrites may differentially affect the force production of the motor unit, depending not only on the firing state history of the motoneuron and the variation in muscle length but also on the mode of motor activity. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Ca v 1.3 channels in motoneuron dendrites are actively involved during normal motor activities. To investigate the effects of the activation of motoneuron Ca v 1.3 channels on force production, a model motor unit was built based on best-available data. The simulation results suggest that force potentiation induced by Ca v 1.3 channel activation is strongly modulated not only by firing history of the motoneuron but also by length variation of the muscle as well as neuromodulation inputs from the brainstem. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Camx Ozone Source Attribution in the Eastern United States Using Guidance from Observations During DISCOVER-AQ Maryland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Daniel L.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; Anderson, Daniel C.; Hembeck, Linda; Canty, Timothy P.; Ehrman, Sheryl H.; Martins, Douglas K.; Stauffer, Ryan M.; Thompson, Anne M.; Salawitch, Ross J.;

Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Waller, Lance A; Schieb, Linda J; Greer, Sophia; Casper, Michele

2015-05-01

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Watson, Stella C; Gettings, Jenna R; Lund, Robert B; Nordone, Shila K; Yabsley, Michael J; McMahan, Christopher S

2017-01-01

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011-2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Watson, Stella C.; Gettings, Jenna R.; Lund, Robert B.; Nordone, Shila K.; McMahan, Christopher S.

2017-01-01

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases. PMID:28738085

A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD 20855 UNITED STATES steinberg@cubrc.org A model is presented for situation and threat assessment...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Subject Matter Expert (SME) Calspan-UB Research Center ( CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD...1 A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment Alan Steinberg CUBRC , Inc. steinberg@cubrc.org November, 2005 2 Objectives • Advance the state-of

The Ingredients of a Public-Private Partnership in Education: The Global Development Alliance Model School Expansion Project in Nicaragua

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galisson, Kirsten; Brady, Kristin

2006-01-01

In May 2001, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell announced the establishment of the Global Development Alliance (GDA) as a key part of a new business model for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The GDA initiative aims to launch best practices in public-private partnerships around the world. The model is designed to…

Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copeland, Jeffrey H.; Pielke, Roger A.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

1996-03-01

The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage.

Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

1996-01-01

The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Economic Outcomes among Latino Migrants to Spain and the United States: Differences by Source Region and Legal Status

PubMed Central

Connor, Phillip; Massey, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

Using representative national surveys, this paper compares economic outcomes among Latin American migrants to Spain and the United States in the first cross-national comparison using quantitative data. Considering the geographic location and social proximity of each country with respect to Latin America, we detect a critical selection effect whereby the majority of Latin American migrants to Spain originate in South America from middle class backgrounds, whereas most migrants to the United States are Central Americans of lower class origins. This selection effect accounts for cross-national differences in the probability of employment, occupational attainment, and wages earned. Despite differences in the origins and characteristics of Latino immigrants to each country, demographic and human and social capital factors appear to operate similarly in both places; and when models are estimated separately by legal status, we find that effects are more accentuated for undocumented compared with documented migrants, especially in the United States. PMID:21776179

Global Lessons In Frugal Innovation To Improve Health Care Delivery In The United States.

PubMed

Bhatti, Yasser; Taylor, Andrea; Harris, Matthew; Wadge, Hester; Escobar, Erin; Prime, Matt; Patel, Hannah; Carter, Alexander W; Parston, Greg; Darzi, Ara W; Udayakumar, Krishna

2017-11-01

In a 2015 global study of low-cost or frugal innovations, we identified five leading innovations that scaled successfully in their original contexts and that may provide insights for scaling such innovations in the United States. We describe common themes among these diverse innovations, critical factors for their translation to the United States to improve the efficiency and quality of health care, and lessons for the implementation and scaling of other innovations. We highlight promising trends in the United States that support adapting these innovations, including growing interest in moving care out of health care facilities and into community and home settings; the growth of alternative payment models and incentives to experiment with new approaches to population health and care delivery; and the increasing use of diverse health professionals, such as community health workers and advanced practice providers. Our findings should inspire policy makers and health care professionals and inform them about the potential for globally sourced frugal innovations to benefit US health care.

Twentieth Century Regional Climate Change During the Summer in the Central United States Attributed to Agricultural Intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alter, Ross E.; Douglas, Hunter C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-02-01

Both land use changes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have significantly modified regional climate over the last century. In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the twentieth century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emissions. However, the relative contributions of each of these forcings to the observed regional changes remain unclear. Results of both regional climate model simulations and observational analyses suggest that much of the observed rainfall increase—as well as the decrease in temperature and increase in humidity—is attributable to agricultural intensification in the central United States, with natural variability and GHG emissions playing secondary roles. Thus, we conclude that twentieth century land use changes contributed more to forcing observed regional climate change during the summer in the central United States than increasing GHG emissions.

A global service-learning experience for nursing students in Tanzania: a model for collaboration.

PubMed

Kreye, Judy; Oetker-Black, Sharon

2013-01-01

This article addresses a model for creating a short-term global service-learning program. The Global Standards for the Initial Education of Professional Nurses and Midwives guided the development of a collaborative program involving a school of nursing in the Midwestern United States and one in Tanzania. Evaluation of the school of nursing and subsequent collaborative planning led to development and implementation of a 3-week global service-learning experience for nursing students. International academic partnerships, developed in accordance with WHO standards, will enhance educational experiences for nursing students both in the United States and abroad. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

HIGH-TEMPERATURE GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN HYDROTHERMAL CONVECTION SYSTEMS IN THE UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

1983-01-01

The calculation of high-temperature geothermal resources ( greater than 150 degree C) in the United States has been done by estimating the temperature, area, and thickness of each identified system. These data, along with a general model for recoverability of geothermal energy and a calculation that takes account of the conversion of thermal energy to electricity, yielded an estimate of 23,000 MW//e for 30 years. The undiscovered component was estimated based on multipliers of the identified resource as either 72,000 or 127,000 MW//e for 30 years depending on the model chosen for the distribution of undiscovered energy as a function of temperature.