Commentary: How can family-based quasi-experimental designs and national registers be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology? A reflection on Obel et al. (2016).

PubMed

Larsson, Henrik

2016-04-01

Standard observational studies have reported a robust correlation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD in offspring. In the accompanying article, Obel et al. used sibling-comparisons to explore the extent to which unmeasured familial confounding explains this association. This commentary highlights three important implications of the study. At a general level, Obel et al. illustrates how (1) family-based quasi-experimental designs and (2) national registers can be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology. At a more specific level, the study suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy is probably not a causal risk factor for ADHD. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

JIM-13-0560 R1: Propensity scores for confounder adjustment when assessing the effects of medical interventions using non-experimental study designs

PubMed Central

Stürmer, Til; Wyss, Richard; Glynn, Robert J.; Brookhart, M. Alan

2014-01-01

Treatment effects, especially when comparing two or more therapeutic alternatives as in comparative effectiveness research, are likely to be heterogeneous across age, gender, co-morbidities, and co-medications. Propensity scores (PSs), an alternative to multivariable outcome models to control for measured confounding, have specific advantages in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. Implementing PSs using matching or weighting allows us to estimate different overall treatment effects in differently defined populations. Heterogeneous treatment effects can also be due to unmeasured confounding concentrated in those treated contrary to prediction. Sensitivity analyses based on PSs can help to assess such unmeasured confounding. PSs should be considered a primary or secondary analytic strategy in non-experimental medical research, including pharmacoepidemiology and non-experimental comparative effectiveness research. PMID:24520806

Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy and Children's Cognitive and Physical Development: A Causal Risk Factor?

PubMed Central

Gardener, Hannah; Buka, Stephen L.

2008-01-01

There remains considerable debate regarding the effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on children's growth and development. Evidence that exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy is associated with numerous adverse outcomes is contradicted by research suggesting that these associations are spurious. The authors investigated the relation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and 14 developmental outcomes of children from birth through age 7 years, using data from the Collaborative Perinatal Project (1959–1974; n = 52,919). In addition to adjusting for potential confounders measured contemporaneously with maternal smoking, the authors fitted conditional fixed-effects models among siblings that controlled for unmeasured confounders. Results from the conditional analyses indicated a birth weight difference of −85.63 g associated with smoking of ≥20 cigarettes daily during pregnancy (95% confidence interval: −131.91, −39.34) and 2.73 times' higher odds of being overweight at age 7 years (95% confidence interval: 1.30, 5.71). However, the associations between maternal smoking and 12 other outcomes studied (including Apgar score, intelligence, academic achievement, conduct problems, and asthma) were entirely eliminated after adjustment for measured and unmeasured confounders. The authors conclude that the hypothesized effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on these outcomes either are not present or are not distinguishable from a broader range of familial factors associated with maternal smoking. PMID:18653646

Is Physical Activity Causally Associated With Symptoms of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder?

PubMed

Rommel, Anna-Sophie; Lichtenstein, Paul; Rydell, Mina; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Asherson, Philip; Kuntsi, Jonna; Larsson, Henrik

2015-07-01

Emerging evidence suggests that physical activity (PA) enhances cognition and may be a protective factor for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Yet the impact of PA on ADHD symptoms has been investigated only in a few undersized, nonrandomized, and retrospective studies. We examined the effect of PA during late adolescence on ADHD symptoms in early adulthood while controlling for unmeasured genetic and shared environmental confounding. The effect of PA at age 16 to 17 years (baseline) on ADHD symptoms at age 19 to 20 years (follow-up) was examined using a within-monozygotic (MZ) twins fixed-effects model in 232 MZ twin pairs born in Sweden between May 1985 and December 1986. Parents rated their children's DSM ADHD symptoms at baseline and follow-up. Participants' weekly energy expenditure (in metabolic equivalent task minutes per week) was based on self-reports at baseline of PA frequency, intensity, and duration. Greater weekly energy expenditure in adolescence was significantly associated with reduced ADHD symptom levels in early adulthood, even when controlling for unmeasured confounding (all genetic and environmental factors shared within MZ twin pairs) as well as ADHD symptoms and body mass index (BMI) at baseline, β = -0.21, p = .013 (95% CI = -0.38 to -0.05). Similar results were observed for the 2 ADHD subcomponents: hyperactivity/impulsivity, β = -0.21, p = .022 (95% CI = -0.39 to -0.03), and inattention, β = -0.19, p = .049 (95% CI = -0.36 to -0.0005). In line with a causal hypothesis, PA was inversely associated with ADHD symptoms, even after adjusting for unmeasured confounding. These findings suggest that PA in adolescence might decrease ADHD symptoms in early adulthood. However, given the size of the effect, the clinical value of this intervention needs to be explored further. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of propensity score-based approaches to health service evaluation: a case study of a preoperative physician-led clinic for high-risk surgical patients.

PubMed

Pham, Clarabelle T; Gibb, Catherine L; Mittinty, Murthy N; Fitridge, Robert A; Marshall, Villis R; Karnon, Jonathan D

2016-10-01

A physician-led clinic for the preoperative optimization and management of high-risk surgical patients was implemented in a South Australian public hospital in 2008. This study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of the clinic using a mixed retrospective and prospective observational study design. Alternative propensity score estimation methods were applied to retrospective routinely collected administrative and clinical data, using weighted and matched cohorts. Supplementary survey-based prospective data were collected to inform the analysis of the retrospective data and reduce potential unmeasured confounding. Using weighted cohorts, clinic patients had a significantly longer mean length of stay and higher mean cost. With the matched cohorts, reducing the calliper width resulted in a shorter mean length of stay in the clinic group, but the costs remained significantly higher. The prospective data indicated potential unmeasured confounding in all analyses other than in the most tightly matched cohorts. The application of alternative propensity-based approaches to a large sample of retrospective data, supplemented with a smaller sample of prospective data, informed a pragmatic approach to reducing potential observed and unmeasured confounding in an evaluation of a physician-led preoperative clinic. The need to generate tightly matched cohorts to reduce the potential for unmeasured confounding indicates that significant uncertainty remains around the effects of the clinic. This study illustrates the value of mixed retrospective and prospective observational study designs but also underlines the need to prospectively plan for the evaluation of costs and effects alongside the implementation of significant service innovations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing moderated mediation in linear models requires fewer confounding assumptions than assessing mediation.

PubMed

Loeys, Tom; Talloen, Wouter; Goubert, Liesbet; Moerkerke, Beatrijs; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-11-01

It is well known from the mediation analysis literature that the identification of direct and indirect effects relies on strong no unmeasured confounding assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Even in randomized studies the mediator may still be correlated with unobserved prognostic variables that affect the outcome, in which case the mediator's role in the causal process may not be inferred without bias. In the behavioural and social science literature very little attention has been given so far to the causal assumptions required for moderated mediation analysis. In this paper we focus on the index for moderated mediation, which measures by how much the mediated effect is larger or smaller for varying levels of the moderator. We show that in linear models this index can be estimated without bias in the presence of unmeasured common causes of the moderator, mediator and outcome under certain conditions. Importantly, one can thus use the test for moderated mediation to support evidence for mediation under less stringent confounding conditions. We illustrate our findings with data from a randomized experiment assessing the impact of being primed with social deception upon observer responses to others' pain, and from an observational study of individuals who ended a romantic relationship assessing the effect of attachment anxiety during the relationship on mental distress 2 years after the break-up. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

High birth weight and perinatal mortality among siblings: A register based study in Norway, 1967-2011.

PubMed

Kristensen, Petter; Keyes, Katherine M; Susser, Ezra; Corbett, Karina; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind; Irgens, Lorentz M

2017-01-01

Perinatal mortality according to birth weight has an inverse J-pattern. Our aim was to estimate the influence of familial factors on this pattern, applying a cohort sibling design. We focused on excess mortality among macrosomic infants (>2 SD above the mean) and hypothesized that the birth weight-mortality association could be explained by confounding shared family factors. We also estimated how the participant's deviation from mean sibling birth weight influenced the association. We included 1 925 929 singletons, born term or post-term to mothers with more than one delivery 1967-2011 registered in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. We examined z-score birth weight and perinatal mortality in random-effects and sibling fixed-effects logistic regression models including measured confounders (e.g. maternal diabetes) as well as unmeasured shared family confounders (through fixed effects models). Birth weight-specific mortality showed an inverse J-pattern, being lowest (2.0 per 1000) at reference weight (z-score +1 to +2) and increasing for higher weights. Mortality in the highest weight category was 15-fold higher than reference. This pattern changed little in multivariable models. Deviance from mean sibling birth weight modified the mortality pattern across the birth weight spectrum: small and medium-sized infants had increased mortality when being smaller than their siblings, and large-sized infants had an increased risk when outweighing their siblings. Maternal diabetes and birth weight acted in a synergistic fashion with mortality among macrosomic infants in diabetic pregnancies in excess of what would be expected for additive effects. The inverse J-pattern between birth weight and mortality is not explained by measured confounders or unmeasured shared family factors. Infants are at particularly high mortality risk when their birth weight deviates substantially from their siblings. Sensitivity analysis suggests that characteristics related to maternal diabetes could be important in explaining the increased mortality among macrosomic infants.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs): an aid to assess confounding in dental research.

PubMed

Merchant, Anwar T; Pitiphat, Waranuch

2002-12-01

Confounding, a special type of bias, occurs when an extraneous factor is associated with the exposure and independently affects the outcome. In order to get an unbiased estimate of the exposure-outcome relationship, we need to identify potential confounders, collect information on them, design appropriate studies, and adjust for confounding in data analysis. However, it is not always clear which variables to collect information on and adjust for in the analyses. Inappropriate adjustment for confounding can even introduce bias where none existed. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a method to select potential confounders and minimize bias in the design and analysis of epidemiological studies. DAGs have been used extensively in expert systems and robotics. Robins (1987) introduced the application of DAGs in epidemiology to overcome shortcomings of traditional methods to control for confounding, especially as they related to unmeasured confounding. DAGs provide a quick and visual way to assess confounding without making parametric assumptions. We introduce DAGs, starting with definitions and rules for basic manipulation, stressing more on applications than theory. We then demonstrate their application in the control of confounding through examples of observational and cross-sectional epidemiological studies.

Residential self-selection bias in the estimation of built environment effects on physical activity between adolescence and young adulthood.

PubMed

Boone-Heinonen, Janne; Guilkey, David K; Evenson, Kelly R; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2010-10-04

Built environment research is dominated by cross-sectional designs, which are particularly vulnerable to residential self-selection bias resulting from health-related attitudes, neighborhood preferences, or other unmeasured characteristics related to both neighborhood choice and health-related outcomes. We used cohort data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (United States; Wave I, 1994-95; Wave III, 2001-02; n = 12,701) and a time-varying geographic information system. Longitudinal relationships between moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) bouts and built and socioeconomic environment measures (landcover diversity, pay and public physical activity facilities per 10,000 population, street connectivity, median household income, and crime rate) from adolescence to young adulthood were estimated using random effects models (biased by unmeasured confounders) and fixed effects models (within-person estimator, which adjusts for unmeasured confounders that are stable over time). Random effects models yielded null associations except for negative crime-MVPA associations [coefficient (95% CI): -0.056 (-0.083, -0.029) in males, -0.061 (-0.090, -0.033) in females]. After controlling for measured and time invariant unmeasured characteristics using within-person estimators, MVPA was higher with greater physical activity pay facilities in males [coefficient (95% CI): 0.024 (0.006, 0.042)], and lower with higher crime rates in males [coefficient (95% CI): -0.107 (-0.140, -0.075)] and females [coefficient (95% CI): -0.046 (-0.083, -0.009)]. Other associations were null or in the counter-intuitive direction. Comparison of within-person estimates to estimates unadjusted for unmeasured characteristics suggest that residential self-selection can bias associations toward the null, as opposed to its typical characterization as a positive confounder. Differential environment-MVPA associations by residential relocation suggest that studies examining changes following residential relocation may be vulnerable to selection bias. The authors discuss complexities of adjusting for residential self-selection and residential relocation, particularly during the adolescent to young adult transition.

Measurement error, time lag, unmeasured confounding: Considerations for longitudinal estimation of the effect of a mediator in randomised clinical trials.

PubMed

Goldsmith, K A; Chalder, T; White, P D; Sharpe, M; Pickles, A

2018-06-01

Clinical trials are expensive and time-consuming and so should also be used to study how treatments work, allowing for the evaluation of theoretical treatment models and refinement and improvement of treatments. These treatment processes can be studied using mediation analysis. Randomised treatment makes some of the assumptions of mediation models plausible, but the mediator-outcome relationship could remain subject to bias. In addition, mediation is assumed to be a temporally ordered longitudinal process, but estimation in most mediation studies to date has been cross-sectional and unable to explore this assumption. This study used longitudinal structural equation modelling of mediator and outcome measurements from the PACE trial of rehabilitative treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (ISRCTN 54285094) to address these issues. In particular, autoregressive and simplex models were used to study measurement error in the mediator, different time lags in the mediator-outcome relationship, unmeasured confounding of the mediator and outcome, and the assumption of a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time. Results showed that allowing for measurement error and unmeasured confounding were important. Contemporaneous rather than lagged mediator-outcome effects were more consistent with the data, possibly due to the wide spacing of measurements. Assuming a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time increased precision.

Measurement error, time lag, unmeasured confounding: Considerations for longitudinal estimation of the effect of a mediator in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

Goldsmith, KA; Chalder, T; White, PD; Sharpe, M; Pickles, A

2016-01-01

Clinical trials are expensive and time-consuming and so should also be used to study how treatments work, allowing for the evaluation of theoretical treatment models and refinement and improvement of treatments. These treatment processes can be studied using mediation analysis. Randomised treatment makes some of the assumptions of mediation models plausible, but the mediator–outcome relationship could remain subject to bias. In addition, mediation is assumed to be a temporally ordered longitudinal process, but estimation in most mediation studies to date has been cross-sectional and unable to explore this assumption. This study used longitudinal structural equation modelling of mediator and outcome measurements from the PACE trial of rehabilitative treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (ISRCTN 54285094) to address these issues. In particular, autoregressive and simplex models were used to study measurement error in the mediator, different time lags in the mediator–outcome relationship, unmeasured confounding of the mediator and outcome, and the assumption of a constant mediator–outcome relationship over time. Results showed that allowing for measurement error and unmeasured confounding were important. Contemporaneous rather than lagged mediator–outcome effects were more consistent with the data, possibly due to the wide spacing of measurements. Assuming a constant mediator–outcome relationship over time increased precision. PMID:27647810

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Weight Loss and Coronary Heart Disease: Sensitivity Analysis for Unmeasured Confounding by Undiagnosed Disease.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Robins, James M; Young, Jessica G; Hu, Frank B; Manson, JoAnn E; Hernán, Miguel A

2016-03-01

Evidence for the effect of weight loss on coronary heart disease (CHD) or mortality has been mixed. The effect estimates can be confounded due to undiagnosed diseases that may affect weight loss. We used data from the Nurses' Health Study to estimate the 26-year risk of CHD under several hypothetical weight loss strategies. We applied the parametric g-formula and implemented a novel sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding due to undiagnosed disease by imposing a lag time for the effect of weight loss on chronic disease. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted. The estimated 26-year risk of CHD did not change under weight loss strategies using lag times from 0 to 18 years. For a 6-year lag time, the risk ratios of CHD for weight loss compared with no weight loss ranged from 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) to 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) for different degrees of weight loss with and without restricting the weight loss strategy to participants with no major chronic disease. Similarly, no protective effect of weight loss was estimated for mortality risk. In contrast, we estimated a protective effect of weight loss on risk of type 2 diabetes. We estimated that maintaining or losing weight after becoming overweight or obese does not reduce the risk of CHD or death in this cohort of middle-age US women. Unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification are possible explanations but these did not prevent us from estimating a beneficial effect of weight loss on diabetes.

External adjustment sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding: an application to coronary stent outcomes, Pennsylvania 2004-2008.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D

2013-06-01

Assessing the real-world comparative effectiveness of common interventions is challenged by unmeasured confounding. To determine whether the mortality benefit shown for drug-eluting stents (DES) over bare metal stents (BMS) in observational studies persists after controls for/tests for confounding. Retrospective observational study involving 38,019 patients, 65 years or older admitted for an index percutaneous coronary intervention receiving DES or BMS in Pennsylvania in 2004-2005 followed up for death through 3 years. Analysis was at the patient level. Mortality was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models allowing for stratification by disease severity or DES use propensity, accounting for clustering of patients. Instrumental variables analysis used lagged physician stent usage to proxy for the focal stent type decision. A method originating in work by Cornfield and others in 1954 and popularized by Greenland in 1996 was used to assess robustness to confounding. DES was associated with a significantly lower adjusted risk of death at 3 years in Cox and in instrumented analyses. An implausibly strong hypothetical unobserved confounder would be required to fully explain these results. Confounding by indication can bias observational studies. No strong evidence of such selection biases was found in the reduced risk of death among elderly patients receiving DES instead of BMS in a Pennsylvanian state-wide population. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Association Between Maternal Smoking During Pregnancy and Severe Mental Illness in Offspring.

PubMed

Quinn, Patrick D; Rickert, Martin E; Weibull, Caroline E; Johansson, Anna L V; Lichtenstein, Paul; Almqvist, Catarina; Larsson, Henrik; Iliadou, Anastasia N; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2017-06-01

Several recent population-based studies have linked exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy to increased risk of severe mental illness in offspring (eg, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia). It is not yet clear, however, whether this association results from causal teratogenic effects or from confounding influences shared by smoking and severe mental illness. To examine the association between smoking during pregnancy and severe mental illness in offspring, adjusting for measured covariates and unmeasured confounding using family-based designs. This study analyzed population register data through December 31, 2013, for a cohort of 1 680 219 individuals born in Sweden from January 1, 1983, to December 31, 2001. Associations between smoking during pregnancy and severe mental illness in offspring were estimated with adjustment for measured covariates. Cousins and siblings who were discordant on smoking during pregnancy and severe mental illness were then compared, which helped to account for unmeasured genetic and environmental confounding by design. Maternal self-reported smoking during pregnancy, obtained from antenatal visits. Severe mental illness, with clinical diagnosis obtained from inpatient and outpatient visits and defined using International Classification of Diseases codes for bipolar disorder and schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Of the 1 680 219 offspring included in the analysis, 816 775 (48.61%) were female. At the population level, offspring exposed to moderate and high levels of smoking during pregnancy had greater severe mental illness rates than did unexposed offspring (moderate smoking during pregnancy: hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% CI, 1.19-1.30; high smoking during pregnancy: HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.44-1.59). These associations decreased in strength with increasing statistical and methodologic controls for familial confounding. In sibling comparisons with within-family covariates, associations were substantially weaker and nonsignificant (moderate smoking during pregnancy: HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.94-1.26; high smoking during pregnancy: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.96-1.35). The pattern of associations was consistent across subsets of severe mental illness disorders and was supported by further sensitivity analyses. This population- and family-based study failed to find support for a causal effect of smoking during pregnancy on risk of severe mental illness in offspring. Rather, these results suggest that much of the observed population-level association can be explained by measured and unmeasured factors shared by siblings.

Improving observational study estimates of treatment effects using joint modeling of selection effects and outcomes: the case of AAA repair.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James; Cotterill, Philip; Schermerhorn, Marc L; Landon, Bruce E

2011-12-01

When 2 treatment approaches are available, there are likely to be unmeasured confounders that influence choice of procedure, which complicates estimation of the causal effect of treatment on outcomes using observational data. To estimate the effect of endovascular (endo) versus open surgical (open) repair, including possible modification by institutional volume, on survival after treatment for abdominal aortic aneurysm, accounting for observed and unobserved confounding variables. Observational study of data from the Medicare program using a joint model of treatment selection and survival given treatment to estimate the effects of type of surgery and institutional volume on survival. We studied 61,414 eligible repairs of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms during 2001 to 2004. The outcome, perioperative death, is defined as in-hospital death or death within 30 days of operation. The key predictors are use of endo, transformed endo and open volume, and endo-volume interactions. There is strong evidence of nonrandom selection of treatment with potential confounding variables including institutional volume and procedure date, variables not typically adjusted for in clinical trials. The best fitting model included heterogeneous transformations of endo volume for endo cases and open volume for open cases as predictors. Consistent with our hypothesis, accounting for unmeasured selection reduced the mortality benefit of endo. The effect of endo versus open surgery varies nonlinearly with endo and open volume. Accounting for institutional experience and unmeasured selection enables better decision-making by physicians making treatment referrals, investigators evaluating treatments, and policy makers.

Variation between Hospitals with Regard to Diagnostic Practice, Coding Accuracy, and Case-Mix. A Retrospective Validation Study of Administrative Data versus Medical Records for Estimating 30-Day Mortality after Hip Fracture.

PubMed

Helgeland, Jon; Kristoffersen, Doris Tove; Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Lindman, Anja Schou

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of patient administrative data (PAS) for calculating 30-day mortality after hip fracture as a quality indicator, by a retrospective study of medical records. We used PAS data from all Norwegian hospitals (2005-2009), merged with vital status from the National Registry, to calculate 30-day case-mix adjusted mortality for each hospital (n = 51). We used stratified sampling to establish a representative sample of both hospitals and cases. The hospitals were stratified according to high, low and medium mortality of which 4, 3, and 5 hospitals were sampled, respectively. Within hospitals, cases were sampled stratified according to year of admission, age, length of stay, and vital 30-day status (alive/dead). The final study sample included 1043 cases from 11 hospitals. Clinical information was abstracted from the medical records. Diagnostic and clinical information from the medical records and PAS were used to define definite and probable hip fracture. We used logistic regression analysis in order to estimate systematic between-hospital variation in unmeasured confounding. Finally, to study the consequences of unmeasured confounding for identifying mortality outlier hospitals, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The estimated overall positive predictive value was 95.9% for definite and 99.7% for definite or probable hip fracture, with no statistically significant differences between hospitals. The standard deviation of the additional, systematic hospital bias in mortality estimates was 0.044 on the logistic scale. The effect of unmeasured confounding on outlier detection was small to moderate, noticeable only for large hospital volumes. This study showed that PAS data are adequate for identifying cases of hip fracture, and the effect of unmeasured case mix variation was small. In conclusion, PAS data are adequate for calculating 30-day mortality after hip-fracture as a quality indicator in Norway.

Who really gets strep sore throat? Confounding and effect modification of a time-varying exposure on recurrent events.

PubMed

Follmann, Dean; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Gabriel, Erin

2016-10-30

Unmeasured confounding is the fundamental obstacle to drawing causal conclusions about the impact of an intervention from observational data. Typically, covariates are measured to eliminate or ameliorate confounding, but they may be insufficient or unavailable. In the special setting where a transient intervention or exposure varies over time within each individual and confounding is time constant, a different tack is possible. The key idea is to condition on either the overall outcome or the proportion of time in the intervention. These measures can eliminate the unmeasured confounding either by conditioning or by use of a proxy covariate. We evaluate existing methods and develop new models from which causal conclusions can be drawn from such observational data even if no baseline covariates are measured. Our motivation for this work was to determine the causal effect of Streptococcus bacteria in the throat on pharyngitis (sore throat) in Indian schoolchildren. Using our models, we show that existing methods can be badly biased and that sick children who are rarely colonized have a high probability that the Streptococcus bacteria are causing their disease. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Offspring ADHD as a risk factor for parental marital problems: controls for genetic and environmental confounds.

PubMed

Schermerhorn, Alice C; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Slutske, Wendy S; Emery, Robert E; Turkheimer, Eric; Harden, K Paige; Heath, Andrew C; Martin, Nicholas G

2012-12-01

Previous studies have found that child attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with more parental marital problems. However, the reasons for this association are unclear. The association might be due to genetic or environmental confounds that contribute to both marital problems and ADHD. Data were drawn from the Australian Twin Registry, including 1,296 individual twins, their spouses, and offspring. We studied adult twins who were discordant for offspring ADHD.Using a discordant twin pairs design, we examined the extent to which genetic and environmental confounds,as well as measured parental and offspring characteristics, explain the ADHD-marital problems association. Offspring ADHD predicted parental divorce and marital conflict. The associations were also robust when comparing differentially exposed identical twins to control for unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, when controlling for measured maternal and paternal psychopathology,when restricting the sample based on timing of parental divorce and ADHD onset, and when controlling for other forms of offspring psychopathology. Each of these controls rules out alternative explanations for the association. The results of the current study converge with those of prior research in suggesting that factors directly associated with offspring ADHD increase parental marital problems.

Offspring ADHD as a Risk Factor for Parental Marital Problems: Controls for Genetic and Environmental Confounds

PubMed Central

Schermerhorn, Alice C.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Slutske, Wendy S.; Emery, Robert E.; Turkheimer, Eric; Harden, K. Paige; Heath, Andrew C.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2013-01-01

Background Previous studies have found that child attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with more parental marital problems. The reasons for this association are unclear, however. The association might be due to genetic or environmental confounds that contribute to both marital problems and ADHD. Method Data were drawn from the Australian Twin Registry, including 1296 individual twins, their spouses, and offspring. We studied adult twins who were discordant for offspring ADHD. Using a discordant twin pairs design, we examined the extent to which genetic and environmental confounds, as well as measured parental and offspring characteristics, explain the ADHD-marital problems association. Results Offspring ADHD predicted parental divorce and marital conflict. The associations were also robust when comparing differentially exposed identical twins to control for unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, when controlling for measured maternal and paternal psychopathology, when restricting the sample based on timing of parental divorce and ADHD onset, and when controlling for other forms of offspring psychopathology. Each of these controls rules out alternative explanations for the association. Conclusion The results of the current study converge with those of prior research in suggesting that factors directly associated with offspring ADHD increase parental marital problems. PMID:22958575

Risk of injury after evening and night work - findings from the Danish Working Hour Database.

PubMed

Nielsen, Helena B; Larsen, Ann D; Dyreborg, Johnny; Hansen, Åse M; Pompeii, Lisa A; Conway, Sadie H; Hansen, Johnni; Kolstad, Henrik A; Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne H

2018-05-08

Objectives Evening and night work have been associated with higher risk of injury than day work. However, previous findings may be affected by recall bias and unmeasured confounding from differences between day, evening and night workers. This study investigates whether evening and night work during the past week increases risk of injury when reducing recall bias and unmeasured confounding. Methods We linked daily working hours at the individual level of 69 200 employees (167 726 person years from 2008-2015), primarily working at hospitals to registry information on 11 834 injuries leading to emergency room visits or death. Analyses were conducted with Poisson regression models in the full population including permanent day, evening and night workers, and in two sub-populations of evening and night workers, with both day and evening or night work, respectively. Thus, the exchangeability between exposure and reference group was improved in the two sub-populations. Results Risk of injury was higher after a week with evening work [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-1.37] and night work (IRR 1.33, 95% CI 1.25-1.41) compared with only day work. Similar, although attenuated, estimates were found for evening work among evening workers (IRR 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25), and for night work among night workers (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20). Conclusion There is an overall increased risk of injury after a week that has included evening or night work compared with only day work. Though attenuated, the higher risk remains after reducing unmeasured confounding.

Evaluation of uncontrolled confounding in studies of environmental exposures and neurobehavioral testing in children.

PubMed

Mink, Pamela J; Goodman, Michael; Barraj, Leila M; Imrey, Harriet; Kelsh, Michael A; Yager, Janice

2004-07-01

Neurobehavioral tests are commonly used in studies of children exposed to low-level environmental concentrations of compounds known to be neurotoxic at higher levels. However, uncontrolled or incomplete control for confounding makes interpretation of results problematic because effects of confounders are often stronger than the effects of primary interest. We examined a priori the potential impact of confounding in a hypothetical study evaluating the association of a potentially neurotoxic environmental exposure with neurobehavioral function in children. We used 2 outcome measures: the Bayley Scales of Infant Development Mental Development Index and the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale Composite Score. We selected 3 potential confounders: maternal intelligence, home environment, and socioeconomic status as measured by years of parental education. We conducted 3 sets of analyses measuring the effect of each of the 3 confounding factors alone, 2 confounders acting simultaneously, and all 3 confounders acting simultaneously. Relatively small differences (0.5 standard deviations) in confounding variables between "exposed" and "unexposed" groups, if unmeasured and unaccounted for in the analysis, could produce spurious differences in cognitive test scores. The magnitude of this difference (3-10 points) has been suggested to have a meaningful impact in populations. The method of measuring confounders (eg, maternal intelligence) could also substantially affect the results. It is important to carefully consider the impact of potential confounders during the planning stages of an observational study. Study-to-study differences in neurobehavioral outcomes with similar environmental exposures could be partially explained by differences in the adjustment for confounding variables. Copyright 2004 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins

Testing the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis for Psychopathology Using Family-Based Quasi-Experimental Designs

PubMed Central

D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Class, Quetzal A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Larsson, Henrik

2014-01-01

The Developmental Origin of Health and Disease (DOHaD) hypothesis is a broad theoretical framework that emphasizes how early risk factors have a causal influence on psychopathology. Researchers have raised concerns about the causal interpretation of statistical associations between early risk factors and later psychopathology because most existing studies have been unable to rule out the possibility of environmental and genetic confounding. In this paper we illustrate how family-based quasi-experimental designs can test the DOHaD hypothesis by ruling out alternative hypotheses. We review the logic underlying sibling-comparison, co-twin control, offspring of siblings/twins, adoption, and in vitro fertilization designs. We then present results from studies using these designs focused on broad indices of fetal development (low birth weight and gestational age) and a particular teratogen, smoking during pregnancy. The results provide mixed support for the DOHaD hypothesis for psychopathology, illustrating the critical need to use design features that rule out unmeasured confounding. PMID:25364377

The Causal Mediation Formula - A Guide to the Assessment of Pathways and Mechanisms

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

for estimating CDE(z) in observational studies (in the presence of unobserved confounders) can be derived using do- calculus (Pearl, 2009, pp. 85–88...2011; Albert and Nelson , 2011). 7In the presence of measured and unmeasured confounders, the general conditions under which NDE is estimable from...achieve this independence (see footnote 7), that Z may represent a vector of variables, and that integrals should replace summations when dealing with

Eliminating Survivor Bias in Two-stage Instrumental Variable Estimators.

PubMed

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

2018-07-01

Mendelian randomization studies commonly focus on elderly populations. This makes the instrumental variables analysis of such studies sensitive to survivor bias, a type of selection bias. A particular concern is that the instrumental variable conditions, even when valid for the source population, may be violated for the selective population of individuals who survive the onset of the study. This is potentially very damaging because Mendelian randomization studies are known to be sensitive to bias due to even minor violations of the instrumental variable conditions. Interestingly, the instrumental variable conditions continue to hold within certain risk sets of individuals who are still alive at a given age when the instrument and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the exposure, and moreover, the exposure and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the hazard of death. In this article, we will exploit this property to derive a two-stage instrumental variable estimator for the effect of exposure on mortality, which is insulated against the above described selection bias under these additivity assumptions.

Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology

PubMed Central

Qi, Lu

2013-01-01

Nutritional epidemiology aims to identify dietary and lifestyle causes for human diseases. Causality inference in nutritional epidemiology is largely based on evidence from studies of observational design, and may be distorted by unmeasured or residual confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is a recently developed methodology that combines genetic and classical epidemiological analysis to infer causality for environmental exposures, based on the principle of Mendel’s law of independent assortment. Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as proxiesforenvironmentalexposuresofinterest.AssociationsderivedfromMendelian randomization analysis are less likely to be affected by confounding and reverse causation. During the past 5 years, a body of studies examined the causal effects of diet/lifestyle factors and biomarkers on a variety of diseases. The Mendelian randomization approach also holds considerable promise in the study of intrauterine influences on offspring health outcomes. However, the application of Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology has some limitations. PMID:19674341

The statistical pitfalls of the partially randomized preference design in non-blinded trials of psychological interventions.

PubMed

Gemmell, Isla; Dunn, Graham

2011-03-01

In a partially randomized preference trial (PRPT) patients with no treatment preference are allocated to groups at random, but those who express a preference receive the treatment of their choice. It has been suggested that the design can improve the external and internal validity of trials. We used computer simulation to illustrate the impact that an unmeasured confounder could have on the results and conclusions drawn from a PRPT. We generated 4000 observations ("patients") that reflected the distribution of the Beck Depression Index (DBI) in trials of depression. Half were randomly assigned to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design and half were assigned to a PRPT design. In the RCT, "patients" were evenly split between treatment and control groups; whereas in the preference arm, to reflect patient choice, 87.5% of patients were allocated to the experimental treatment and 12.5% to the control. Unadjusted analyses of the PRPT data consistently overestimated the treatment effect and its standard error. This lead to Type I errors when the true treatment effect was small and Type II errors when the confounder effect was large. The PRPT design is not recommended as a method of establishing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust versus consistent variance estimators in marginal structural Cox models.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Engel, Susanne; Linder, Roland; Pigeot, Iris

2018-06-11

In survival analyses, inverse-probability-of-treatment (IPT) and inverse-probability-of-censoring (IPC) weighted estimators of parameters in marginal structural Cox models are often used to estimate treatment effects in the presence of time-dependent confounding and censoring. In most applications, a robust variance estimator of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator is calculated leading to conservative confidence intervals. This estimator assumes that the weights are known rather than estimated from the data. Although a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator is generally available, applications and thus information on the performance of the consistent estimator are lacking. Reasons might be a cumbersome implementation in statistical software, which is further complicated by missing details on the variance formula. In this paper, we therefore provide a detailed derivation of the variance of the asymptotic distribution of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator and explicitly state the necessary terms to calculate a consistent estimator of this variance. We compare the performance of the robust and consistent variance estimators in an application based on routine health care data and in a simulation study. The simulation reveals no substantial differences between the 2 estimators in medium and large data sets with no unmeasured confounding, but the consistent variance estimator performs poorly in small samples or under unmeasured confounding, if the number of confounders is large. We thus conclude that the robust estimator is more appropriate for all practical purposes. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal Models for Mediation Analysis: An Introduction to Structural Mean Models.

PubMed

Zheng, Cheng; Atkins, David C; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Rhew, Isaac C

2015-01-01

Mediation analyses are critical to understanding why behavioral interventions work. To yield a causal interpretation, common mediation approaches must make an assumption of "sequential ignorability." The current article describes an alternative approach to causal mediation called structural mean models (SMMs). A specific SMM called a rank-preserving model (RPM) is introduced in the context of an applied example. Particular attention is given to the assumptions of both approaches to mediation. Applying both mediation approaches to the college student drinking data yield notable differences in the magnitude of effects. Simulated examples reveal instances in which the traditional approach can yield strongly biased results, whereas the RPM approach remains unbiased in these cases. At the same time, the RPM approach has its own assumptions that must be met for correct inference, such as the existence of a covariate that strongly moderates the effect of the intervention on the mediator and no unmeasured confounders that also serve as a moderator of the effect of the intervention or the mediator on the outcome. The RPM approach to mediation offers an alternative way to perform mediation analysis when there may be unmeasured confounders.

Probabilistic bias analysis in pharmacoepidemiology and comparative effectiveness research: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-12-01

We systematically reviewed pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies that use probabilistic bias analysis to quantify the effects of systematic error including confounding, misclassification, and selection bias on study results. We found articles published between 2010 and October 2015 through a citation search using Web of Science and Google Scholar and a keyword search using PubMed and Scopus. Eligibility of studies was assessed by one reviewer. Three reviewers independently abstracted data from eligible studies. Fifteen studies used probabilistic bias analysis and were eligible for data abstraction-nine simulated an unmeasured confounder and six simulated misclassification. The majority of studies simulating an unmeasured confounder did not specify the range of plausible estimates for the bias parameters. Studies simulating misclassification were in general clearer when reporting the plausible distribution of bias parameters. Regardless of the bias simulated, the probability distributions assigned to bias parameters, number of simulated iterations, sensitivity analyses, and diagnostics were not discussed in the majority of studies. Despite the prevalence and concern of bias in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies, probabilistic bias analysis to quantitatively model the effect of bias was not widely used. The quality of reporting and use of this technique varied and was often unclear. Further discussion and dissemination of the technique are warranted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Associations between otitis media and child behavioural and learning difficulties: Results from a Danish cohort.

PubMed

Niclasen, J; Obel, C; Homøe, P; Kørvel-Hanquist, A; Dammeyer, J

2016-05-01

Findings from studies investigating early childhood episodes of otitis media (OM) and developmental outcomes are inconclusive. This may in part be because large-scale prospective studies controlling for relevant confounding factors are sparse. The present study investigates associations between OM in early childhood and later behavioural and learning difficulties controlling for relevant confounding factors. The study applied data from the Aarhus Birth Cohort's 10-12-year-old follow-up (N=7578). Associations between retrospective parent-reported OM (no OM; 1-3 episodes of OM with/without tympanostomy tubes; 4+ OM episodes without tympanostomy tubes and; 4+ OM episodes with tympanostomy tubes) one the one hand, and parent- and teacher-reported scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and parent-reported academic difficulties on the other hand, were investigated. The following variables were controlled for: parental educational level, maternal and paternal school problems, parental post-natal smoking, breastfeeding, and age at which the child started walking. All analyses were stratified by gender. Large differences in background characteristics were observed for the group of children with 4+ OM episodes with tympanostomy tubes compared to the no OM group. After controlling for relevant confounders, negative associations were consistently observed for the group of children with 4+ episodes of OM with tympanostomy tubes compared to the group of children without OM. This was particularly so for girls. The findings suggest an association between 4+ episodes of early OM with tympanostomy tubes and behavioural and learning difficulties later in childhood. The large inter-group differences, i.e. impact of residual and unmeasured confounding factors, may in part explain the observed associations and underline the need to include these in future studies. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Perceived fairness of pay among people with and without disabilities: a propensity score matched analysis of working Australians.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Krnjacki, Lauren; Bentley, Rebecca; Blakely, Tony; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Kavanagh, Anne M

2015-09-01

Equity and fairness at work are associated with a range of organizational and health outcomes. Past research suggests that workers with disabilities experience inequity in the workplace. It is difficult to conclude whether the presence of disability is the reason for perceived unfair treatment due to the possible confounding of effect estimates by other demographic or socioeconomic factors. The data source was the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey (2001-2012). Propensity for disability was calculated from logistic models including gender, age, education, country of birth, and father's occupational skill level as predictors. We then used nearest neighbor (on propensity score) matched analysis to match workers with disabilities to workers without disability. Results suggest that disability is independently associated with lower fairness of pay after controlling for confounding factors in the propensity score matched analysis; although results do suggest less than half a standard deviation difference, indicating small effects. Similar results were apparent in standard multivariable regression models and alternative propensity score analyses (stratification, covariate adjustment using the propensity score, and inverse probability of treatment weighting). Whilst neither multivariable regression nor propensity scores adjust for unmeasured confounding, and there remains the potential for other biases, similar results for the two methodological approaches to confounder adjustment provide some confidence of an independent association of disability with perceived unfairness of pay. Based on this, we suggest that the disparity in the perceived fairness of pay between people with and without disabilities may be explained by worse treatment of people with disabilities in the workplace.

A Quasi-Experimental Analysis of the Influence of Neighborhood Disadvantage on Child and Adolescent Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Goodnight, Jackson A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Rodgers, Joseph L.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.

2012-01-01

A quasi-experimental comparison of cousins differentially exposed to levels of neighborhood disadvantage (ND) was used with extensive measured covariates to test the hypothesis that neighborhood risk has independent effects on youth conduct problems (CPs). Multilevel analyses were based on mother-rated ND and both mother-reported CPs across 4–13 years (n = 7,077) and youth-reported CPs across 10–13 years (n = 4,524) from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. ND was robustly related to CPs reported by both informants when controlling for both measured risk factors that are correlated with ND and unmeasured confounds. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that ND has influence on conduct problems. PMID:21942334

Economic downturns and suicide mortality in the USA, 1980-2010: observational study.

PubMed

Harper, Sam; Charters, Thomas J; Strumpf, Erin C; Galea, Sandro; Nandi, Arijit

2015-06-01

Several studies have suggested strong associations between economic downturns and suicide mortality, but are at risk of bias due to unmeasured confounding. The rationale for our study was to provide more robust evidence by using a quasi-experimental design. We analysed 955,561 suicides occurring in the USA from 1980 to 2010 and used a broad index of economic activity in each US state to measure economic conditions. We used a quasi-experimental, fixed-effects design and we also assessed whether the effects were heterogeneous by demographic group and during periods of official recession. After accounting for secular trends, seasonality and unmeasured fixed characteristics of states, we found that an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the 2007 Great Recession increased suicide mortality by 0.14 deaths per 100,000 population [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.00, 0.28] or around 350 deaths. Effects were stronger for men (0.28, 95% CI 0.07, 0.49) than women and for those with less than 12 years of education (1.22 95% CI 0.83, 1.60) compared with more than 12 years of education. The overall effect did not differ for recessionary (0.11, 95% CI -0.02, 0.25) vs non-recessionary periods (0.15, 95% CI 0.01, 0.29). The main study limitation is the potential for misclassified death certificates and we cannot definitively rule out unmeasured confounding. We found limited evidence of a strong, population-wide detrimental effect of economic downturns on suicide mortality. The overall effect hides considerable heterogeneity by gender, socioeconomic position and time period. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Economic downturns and suicide mortality in the USA, 1980–2010: observational study

PubMed Central

Harper, Sam; Charters, Thomas J; Strumpf, Erin C; Galea, Sandro; Nandi, Arijit

2015-01-01

Background: Several studies have suggested strong associations between economic downturns and suicide mortality, but are at risk of bias due to unmeasured confounding. The rationale for our study was to provide more robust evidence by using a quasi-experimental design. Methods: We analysed 955 561 suicides occurring in the USA from 1980 to 2010 and used a broad index of economic activity in each US state to measure economic conditions. We used a quasi-experimental, fixed-effects design and we also assessed whether the effects were heterogeneous by demographic group and during periods of official recession. Results: After accounting for secular trends, seasonality and unmeasured fixed characteristics of states, we found that an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the 2007 Great Recession increased suicide mortality by 0.14 deaths per 100 000 population [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.00, 0.28] or around 350 deaths. Effects were stronger for men (0.28, 95% CI 0.07, 0.49) than women and for those with less than 12 years of education (1.22 95% CI 0.83, 1.60) compared with more than 12 years of education. The overall effect did not differ for recessionary (0.11, 95% CI −0.02, 0.25) vs non-recessionary periods (0.15, 95% CI 0.01, 0.29). The main study limitation is the potential for misclassified death certificates and we cannot definitively rule out unmeasured confounding. Conclusions: We found limited evidence of a strong, population-wide detrimental effect of economic downturns on suicide mortality. The overall effect hides considerable heterogeneity by gender, socioeconomic position and time period. PMID:26082407

Age at immigration and crime in Stockholm using sibling comparisons.

PubMed

Beckley, Amber L

2015-09-01

Past Swedish research has shown that immigrants arriving in the receiving country at an older age are less likely to commit crime than immigrants arriving at a younger age. Segmented assimilation theory argues that the family and neighborhood may be important factors affecting how age at immigration and crime are related to one another. This study used population-based register data on foreign-background males from Stockholm to test the effect of age at immigration on crime. Potential confounding from the family and neighborhood was addressed using variables and modeling strategies. Initial results, using variables to control for confounding, showed that people who immigrated around age 4 were the most likely to be suspected of a crime. When controlling for unmeasured family characteristics, it seemed that a later age at immigration was tied to a lower likelihood of crime, which does not corroborate past research findings. The effect of age at immigration, however, was not statistically significant. The results imply that future research on entire families may be a worthwhile endeavor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Indirect Effects in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding for the Mediator-Outcome Relationship in a Multilevel 2-1-1 Mediation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Talloen, Wouter; Moerkerke, Beatrijs; Loeys, Tom; De Naeghel, Jessie; Van Keer, Hilde; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-01-01

To assess the direct and indirect effect of an intervention, multilevel 2-1-1 studies with intervention randomized at the upper (class) level and mediator and outcome measured at the lower (student) level are frequently used in educational research. In such studies, the mediation process may flow through the student-level mediator (the within…

Testing concordance of instrumental variable effects in generalized linear models with application to Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Dai, James Y.; Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Hsu, Li

2014-01-01

Instrumental variable regression is one way to overcome unmeasured confounding and estimate causal effect in observational studies. Built on structural mean models, there has been considerale work recently developed for consistent estimation of causal relative risk and causal odds ratio. Such models can sometimes suffer from identification issues for weak instruments. This hampered the applicability of Mendelian randomization analysis in genetic epidemiology. When there are multiple genetic variants available as instrumental variables, and causal effect is defined in a generalized linear model in the presence of unmeasured confounders, we propose to test concordance between instrumental variable effects on the intermediate exposure and instrumental variable effects on the disease outcome, as a means to test the causal effect. We show that a class of generalized least squares estimators provide valid and consistent tests of causality. For causal effect of a continuous exposure on a dichotomous outcome in logistic models, the proposed estimators are shown to be asymptotically conservative. When the disease outcome is rare, such estimators are consistent due to the log-linear approximation of the logistic function. Optimality of such estimators relative to the well-known two-stage least squares estimator and the double-logistic structural mean model is further discussed. PMID:24863158

Complexities of sibling analysis when exposures and outcomes change with time and birth order.

PubMed

Sudan, Madhuri; Kheifets, Leeka I; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Divan, Hozefa A; Olsen, Jørn

2014-01-01

In this study, we demonstrate the complexities of performing a sibling analysis with a re-examination of associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems observed previously in the Danish National Birth Cohort. Children (52,680; including 5441 siblings) followed up to age 7 were included. We examined differences in exposures and behavioral problems between siblings and non-siblings and by birth order and birth year. We estimated associations between cell phone exposures and behavioral problems while accounting for the random family effect among siblings. The association of behavioral problems with both prenatal and postnatal exposure differed between siblings (odds ratio (OR): 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-1.66) and non-siblings (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.36-1.74) and within siblings by birth order; the association was strongest for first-born siblings (OR: 1.72; 95% CI: 0.86-3.42) and negative for later-born siblings (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.31-1.25), which may be because of increases in cell phone use with later birth year. Sibling analysis can be a powerful tool for (partially) accounting for confounding by invariant unmeasured within-family factors, but it cannot account for uncontrolled confounding by varying family-level factors, such as those that vary with time and birth order.

Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump Counterpulsation during Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Cardiogenic Shock: Insights from the British Columbia Cardiac Registry

PubMed Central

Iqbal, M. Bilal; Robinson, Simon D.; Ding, Lillian; Fung, Anthony; Aymong, Eve; Chan, Albert W.; Hodge, Steven; Della Siega, Anthony; Nadra, Imad J.

2016-01-01

Background Cardiogenic shock complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) era, randomized trials have not shown a survival benefit with intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) therapy. This differs to observational data which show a detrimental effect, potentially reflecting bias and confounding. Without robust and valid risk adjustment, findings from non-randomized studies may remain biased. Methods We compared long-term mortality following IABP therapy in patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing PPCI during 2008–2013 from the British Columbia Cardiac Registry. We addressed measured and unmeasured confounding using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Results A total of 12,105 patients with STEMI were treated with PPCI during the study period. Of these, 700 patients (5.8%) had cardiogenic shock. Of the patients with cardiogenic shock, 255 patients (36%) received IABP therapy. Multivariable analyses identified IABP therapy to be associated with increased mortality up to 3 years (HR = 1.67, 95% CI:1.20–2.67, p<0.001). This association was lost in propensity-matched analyses (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.84–1.80, p = 0.288). When addressing measured and unmeasured confounders, instrumental variable analyses demonstrated that IABP therapy was not associated with mortality at 3 years (Δ = 16.7%, 95% CI: -12.7%, 46.1%, p = 0.281). Subgroup analyses demonstrated IABP was associated with increased mortality in non-diabetics; patients not undergoing multivessel intervention; patients without renal disease and patients not having received prior thrombolysis. Conclusions In this observational analysis of patients with STEMI and cardiogenic shock, when adjusting for confounding, IABP therapy had a neutral effect with no association with long-term mortality. These findings differ to previously reported observational studies, but are in keeping with randomized trial data. PMID:26870950

Effects of Multiple Maternal Relationship Transitions on Offspring Antisocial Behavior in Childhood and Adolescence: A Cousin-Comparison Analysis

PubMed Central

Goodnight, Jackson A.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Cherlin, Andrew J.; Emery, Robert E.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.

2012-01-01

Previous studies of the association between multiple parental relationship transitions (i.e., when a parent begins or terminates an intimate relationship involving cohabitation) and offspring antisocial behavior have varied in their efforts to rule out confounding influences, such as parental antisocial behavior and low income. They also have been limited in the representativeness of their samples. Thus, it remains unclear to what degree parents’ multiple relationship transitions have independent effects on children’s antisocial behavior. Analyses were conducted using data on 8,652 6–9-year-old, 6,911 10–13-year-old, and 6,495 14-17-year-old offspring of a nationally representative sample of U.S. women. Cousin-comparisons were used in combination with statistical covariates to evaluate the associations between maternal relationship transitions and offspring antisocial behavior in childhood and adolescence. Cousin-comparisons suggested that associations between maternal relationship transitions and antisocial behavior in childhood and early adolescence are largely explained by confounding factors. In contrast, the associations between maternal relationship transitions and offspring delinquency in late adolescence were robust to measured and unmeasured confounds. The present findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing exposure to parental relationship transitions or addressing the psychosocial consequences of exposure to parental relationship transitions could reduce risk for offspring delinquency in late adolescence. PMID:22829173

Sensitivity analysis for linear structural equation models, longitudinal mediation with latent growth models and blended learning in biostatistics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Adam John

In chapter 1, we consider the biases that may arise when an unmeasured confounder is omitted from a structural equation model (SEM) and sensitivity analysis techniques to correct for such biases. We give an analysis of which effects in an SEM are and are not biased by an unmeasured confounder. It is shown that a single unmeasured confounder will bias not just one but numerous effects in an SEM. We present sensitivity analysis techniques to correct for biases in total, direct, and indirect effects when using SEM analyses, and illustrate these techniques with a study of aging and cognitive function. In chapter 2, we consider longitudinal mediation with latent growth curves. We define the direct and indirect effects using counterfactuals and consider the assumptions needed for identifiability of those effects. We develop models with a binary treatment/exposure followed by a model where treatment/exposure changes with time allowing for treatment/exposure-mediator interaction. We thus formalize mediation analysis with latent growth curve models using counterfactuals, makes clear the assumptions and extends these methods to allow for exposure mediator interactions. We present and illustrate the techniques with a study on Multiple Sclerosis(MS) and depression. In chapter 3, we report on a pilot study in blended learning that took place during the Fall 2013 and Summer 2014 semesters here at Harvard. We blended the traditional BIO 200: Principles of Biostatistics and created ID 200: Principles of Biostatistics and epidemiology. We used materials from the edX course PH207x: Health in Numbers: Quantitative Methods in Clinical & Public Health Research and used. These materials were used as a video textbook in which students would watch a given number of these videos prior to class. Using surveys as well as exam data we informally assess these blended classes from the student's perspective as well as a comparison of these students with students in another course, BIO 201: Introduction to Statistical Methods in Fall 2013 as well as students from BIO 200 in Fall semesters of 1992 and 1993. We then suggest improvements upon our original course designs and follow up with an informal look at how these implemented changes affected the second offering of the newly blended ID 200 in Summer 2014.

Unconditional Prenatal Income Supplement and Birth Outcomes.

PubMed

Brownell, Marni D; Chartier, Mariette J; Nickel, Nathan C; Chateau, Dan; Martens, Patricia J; Sarkar, Joykrishna; Burland, Elaine; Jutte, Douglas P; Taylor, Carole; Santos, Robert G; Katz, Alan

2016-06-01

Perinatal outcomes have improved in developed countries but remain poor for disadvantaged populations. We examined whether an unconditional income supplement to low-income pregnant women was associated with improved birth outcomes. This study included all mother-newborn pairs (2003-2010) in Manitoba, Canada, where the mother received prenatal social assistance, the infant was born in the hospital, and the pair had a risk screen (N = 14 591). Low-income women who received the income supplement (Healthy Baby Prenatal Benefit [HBPB], n = 10 738) were compared with low-income women who did not receive HBPB (n = 3853) on the following factors: low birth weight, preterm, small and large for gestational age, Apgar score, breastfeeding initiation, neonatal readmission, and newborn hospital length of stay (LOS). Covariates from risk screens were used to develop propensity scores and to balance differences between groups in regression models; γ sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess sensitivity to unmeasured confounding. Population-attributable and preventable fractions were calculated. HBPB was associated with reductions in low birth weight (aRR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.63-0.81]), preterm births (aRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.69-0.84]) and small for gestational age births (aRR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.81-0.99]) and increases in breastfeeding (aRR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09]) and large for gestational age births (aRR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.05-1.23]). For vaginal births, HBPB was associated with shortened LOS (weighted mean, 2.86; P < .0001). Results for breastfeeding, low birth weight, preterm birth, and LOS were robust to unmeasured confounding. Reductions of 21% (95% CI, 13.6-28.3) for low birth weight births and 17.5% (95% CI, 11.2-23.8) for preterm births were associated with HBPB. Receipt of an unconditional prenatal income supplement was associated with positive outcomes. Placing conditions on income supplements may not be necessary to promote prenatal and perinatal health. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Placental Abruption and Perinatal Mortality With Preterm Delivery as a Mediator: Disentangling Direct and Indirect Effects

PubMed Central

Ananth, Cande V.; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2011-01-01

The authors use recent methodology in causal inference to disentangle the direct and indirect effects that operate through a mediator in an exposure-response association paradigm. They demonstrate how total effects can be partitioned into direct and indirect effects even when the exposure and mediator interact. The impact of bias due to unmeasured confounding on the exposure-response association is assessed through a series of sensitivity analyses. These methods are applied to a problem in perinatal epidemiology to examine the extent to which the effect of abruption on perinatal mortality is mediated through preterm delivery. Data on over 26 million US singleton births (1995–2002) were utilized. Risks of mortality among abruption and nonabruption births were 102.7 and 6.2 per 1,000 births, respectively. Risk ratios of the natural direct and indirect (preterm delivery-mediated) effects of abruption on mortality were 10.18 (95% confidence interval: 9.80, 10.58) and 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.33, 1.38), respectively. The proportion of increased mortality risk mediated through preterm delivery was 28.1%, with even higher proportions associated with deliveries at earlier gestational ages. Sensitivity analyses underscore that the qualitative conclusions of some mediated effects and substantial direct effects are reasonably robust to unmeasured confounding of a fairly considerable magnitude. PMID:21430195

Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

2015-11-01

The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Smoking and cognitive impairment among older persons in Malaysia.

PubMed

Momtaz, Yadollah Abolfathi; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Chai, Sen Tyng

2015-06-01

Previous studies have shown conflicting results on the association between smoking and cognitive function. This study aims to examine the relationship of smoking with cognitive function. Data for the study, consisting of 2553 older adults aged 60 years and older, were drawn from a nationwide household survey entitled "Determinants of Wellness among Older Malaysians: A Health Promotion Perspective" conducted in 2010. Current smokers had lower rates of cognitive impairment compared to never smokers (17.4% vs 25.9%), while cognitive function in former or ex-smokers was almost similar to that of the never smokers. Findings from multiple logistic regression analysis showed that current smokers were 37% less likely to be cognitively impaired, compared to the never smokers (odds ratio [OR] = .63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .46-.86) while controlling for potential confounders. No difference in cognitive function was observed between former smokers and never smokers (OR = .94; 95% CI: .71-1.25). Although the findings indicated a negative association between cigarette smoking and cognitive impairment, we are unable to conclude whether this relationship is causal or affected by other unmeasured confounding factors, especially survival bias. © The Author(s) 2014.

The individualistic fallacy, ecological studies and instrumental variables: a causal interpretation.

PubMed

Loney, Tom; Nagelkerke, Nico J

2014-01-01

The validity of ecological studies in epidemiology for inferring causal relationships has been widely challenged as observed associations could be biased by the Ecological Fallacy. We reconsider the important design components of ecological studies, and discuss the conditions that may lead to spurious associations. Ecological associations are useful and valid when the ecological exposures can be interpreted as Instrumental Variables. A suitable example may be a time series analysis of environmental pollution (e.g. particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 micrometres; PM10) and health outcomes (e.g. hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction) as environmental pollution levels are a cause of individual exposure levels and not just an aggregate measurement. Ecological exposures may also be employed in situations (perhaps rare) where individual exposures are known but their associations with health outcomes are confounded by unknown or unquantifiable factors. Ecological associations have a notorious reputation in epidemiology and individualistic associations are considered superior to ecological associations because of the "ecological fallacy". We have argued that this is incorrect in situations in which ecological or aggregate exposures can serve as an instrumental variable and associations between individual exposure and outcome are likely to be confounded by unmeasured variables.

Confounding of the association between radiation exposure from CT scans and risk of leukemia and brain tumors by cancer susceptibility syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-12-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of pediatric CT scans. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk. Since empirical evidence is lacking in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome and other CSS. Moreover, tuberous sclerosis complex, von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1 and other CSS do not meaningfully confound RRs for brain tumors. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients is urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans and leukemia or brain tumors reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS.

Confounding in statistical mediation analysis: What it is and how to address it.

PubMed

Valente, Matthew J; Pelham, William E; Smyth, Heather; MacKinnon, David P

2017-11-01

Psychology researchers are often interested in mechanisms underlying how randomized interventions affect outcomes such as substance use and mental health. Mediation analysis is a common statistical method for investigating psychological mechanisms that has benefited from exciting new methodological improvements over the last 2 decades. One of the most important new developments is methodology for estimating causal mediated effects using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. Potential outcomes-based methods developed in epidemiology and statistics have important implications for understanding psychological mechanisms. We aim to provide a concise introduction to and illustration of these new methods and emphasize the importance of confounder adjustment. First, we review the traditional regression approach for estimating mediated effects. Second, we describe the potential outcomes framework. Third, we define what a confounder is and how the presence of a confounder can provide misleading evidence regarding mechanisms of interventions. Fourth, we describe experimental designs that can help rule out confounder bias. Fifth, we describe new statistical approaches to adjust for measured confounders of the mediator-outcome relation and sensitivity analyses to probe effects of unmeasured confounders on the mediated effect. All approaches are illustrated with application to a real counseling intervention dataset. Counseling psychologists interested in understanding the causal mechanisms of their interventions can benefit from incorporating the most up-to-date techniques into their mediation analyses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Birth Weight, Physical Morbidity, and Mortality: A Population-based Sibling-Comparison Study

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; Rickert, Martin E.; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M.

2014-01-01

Associations between low birth weight (≤2,500 g) and increased risk of mortality and morbidity provided the foundation for the “developmental origins of health and disease” hypothesis. Previous between-family studies could not control for unmeasured confounders. Therefore, we compared differentially exposed siblings to estimate the extent to which the associations were due to uncontrolled factors. Our population cohort included 3,291,773 persons born in Sweden from 1973 to 2008. Analyses controlled for gestational age, among other covariates, and considered birth weight as both an ordinal and a continuous variable. Outcomes included mortality after 1 year, cardiac-related death, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, pulmonary circulation problems, stroke, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We fitted fixed-effects models to compare siblings and conducted sensitivity analyses to test alternative explanations. Across the population, the lower the birth weight, the greater the risk of mortality (e.g., cardiac-related death (low birth weight hazard ratio = 2.69, 95% confidence interval: 2.05, 3.53)) and morbidity (e.g., type 2 diabetes mellitus (low birth weight hazard ratio = 1.79, 95% confidence interval: 1.50, 2.14)) outcomes in comparison with normal birth weight. All associations were independent of shared familial confounders and measured covariates. Results emphasize the importance of birth weight as a risk factor for subsequent mortality and morbidity. PMID:24355331

A study of the birth weight-obesity relation using a longitudinal cohort and sibling and twin pairs.

PubMed

The, Natalie S; Adair, Linda S; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2010-09-01

Sibling and twin study designs provide control for confounding factors that are typically unmeasured in traditional cohort studies. Using nationally representative data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health collected at 3 visits during 1994-2002, the authors evaluated the longitudinal association between birth weight and later obesity in a traditional cohort study (n = 13,763; ages 11-21 years at baseline), controlling for sex, age, race/ethnicity, and parental education. Among persons with a nonobese mother, high birth weight (>4 kg) participants were more likely than normal birth weight (>/=2.5-

Using instrumental variables to disentangle treatment and placebo effects in blinded and unblinded randomized clinical trials influenced by unmeasured confounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaibub Neto, Elias

2016-11-01

Clinical trials traditionally employ blinding as a design mechanism to reduce the influence of placebo effects. In practice, however, it can be difficult or impossible to blind study participants and unblinded trials are common in medical research. Here we show how instrumental variables can be used to quantify and disentangle treatment and placebo effects in randomized clinical trials comparing control and active treatments in the presence of confounders. The key idea is to use randomization to separately manipulate treatment assignment and psychological encouragement conversations/interactions that increase the participants’ desire for improved symptoms. The proposed approach is able to improve the estimation of treatment effects in blinded studies and, most importantly, opens the doors to account for placebo effects in unblinded trials.

Combining fixed effects and instrumental variable approaches for estimating the effect of psychosocial job quality on mental health: evidence from 13 waves of a nationally representative cohort study.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Kavanagh, Anne; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Pega, Frank; Petrie, Dennis

2017-06-23

Previous studies suggest that poor psychosocial job quality is a risk factor for mental health problems, but they use conventional regression analytic methods that cannot rule out reverse causation, unmeasured time-invariant confounding and reporting bias. This study combines two quasi-experimental approaches to improve causal inference by better accounting for these biases: (i) linear fixed effects regression analysis and (ii) linear instrumental variable analysis. We extract 13 annual waves of national cohort data including 13 260 working-age (18-64 years) employees. The exposure variable is self-reported level of psychosocial job quality. The instruments used are two common workplace entitlements. The outcome variable is the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5). We adjust for measured time-varying confounders. In the fixed effects regression analysis adjusted for time-varying confounders, a 1-point increase in psychosocial job quality is associated with a 1.28-point improvement in mental health on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: 1.17, 1.40; P < 0.001). When the fixed effects was combined with the instrumental variable analysis, a 1-point increase psychosocial job quality is related to 1.62-point improvement on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: -0.24, 3.48; P = 0.088). Our quasi-experimental results provide evidence to confirm job stressors as risk factors for mental ill health using methods that improve causal inference. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

A Comparison of Agent-Based Models and the Parametric G-Formula for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Murray, Eleanor J; Robins, James M; Seage, George R; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Hernán, Miguel A

2017-07-15

Decision-making requires choosing from treatments on the basis of correctly estimated outcome distributions under each treatment. In the absence of randomized trials, 2 possible approaches are the parametric g-formula and agent-based models (ABMs). The g-formula has been used exclusively to estimate effects in the population from which data were collected, whereas ABMs are commonly used to estimate effects in multiple populations, necessitating stronger assumptions. Here, we describe potential biases that arise when ABM assumptions do not hold. To do so, we estimated 12-month mortality risk in simulated populations differing in prevalence of an unknown common cause of mortality and a time-varying confounder. The ABM and g-formula correctly estimated mortality and causal effects when all inputs were from the target population. However, whenever any inputs came from another population, the ABM gave biased estimates of mortality-and often of causal effects even when the true effect was null. In the absence of unmeasured confounding and model misspecification, both methods produce valid causal inferences for a given population when all inputs are from that population. However, ABMs may result in bias when extrapolated to populations that differ on the distribution of unmeasured outcome determinants, even when the causal network linking variables is identical. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Within-Subject Mediation Analysis in AB/BA Crossover Designs.

PubMed

Josephy, Haeike; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Vanderhasselt, Marie-Anne; Loeys, Tom

2015-05-01

Crossover trials are widely used to assess the effect of a reversible exposure on an outcome of interest. To gain further insight into the underlying mechanisms of this effect, researchers may be interested in exploring whether or not it runs through a specific intermediate variable: the mediator. Mediation analysis in crossover designs has received scant attention so far and is mostly confined to the traditional Baron and Kenny approach. We aim to tackle mediation analysis within the counterfactual framework and elucidate the assumptions under which the direct and indirect effects can be identified in AB/BA crossover studies. Notably, we show that both effects are identifiable in certain statistical models, even in the presence of unmeasured time-independent (or upper-level) confounding of the mediator-outcome relation. Employing the mediation formula, we derive expressions for the direct and indirect effects in within-subject designs for continuous outcomes that lend themselves to linear modelling, under a large variety of settings. We discuss an estimation approach based on regressing differences in outcomes on differences in mediators and show how to allow for period effects as well as different types of moderation. The performance of this approach is compared to other existing methods through simulations and is illustrated with data from a neurobehavioural study. Lastly, we demonstrate how a sensitivity analysis can be performed that is able to assess the robustness of both the direct and indirect effect against violation of the "no unmeasured lower-level mediator-outcome confounding" assumption.

Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation

PubMed Central

Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

2012-01-01

This paper presents marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and outcome that has been influenced by treatment results in biased estimates of the direct effect (i.e., the effect of treatment on the outcome that does not go through the mediator). One advantage of IPW is that it can properly adjust for this type of confounding, assuming there are no unmeasured confounders. Further, we illustrate that IPW estimation provides unbiased estimates of all effects when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the treatment, when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the mediator, and when the treatment interacts with the mediator. IPW estimation also provides unbiased estimates of all effects in the presence of non-randomized treatments. In addition, for testing mediation we propose a test of the null hypothesis of no mediation. Finally, we illustrate this approach with an empirical data set in which the mediator is continuous, as is often the case in psychological research. PMID:22905648

Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation.

PubMed

Coffman, Donna L; Zhong, Wei

2012-12-01

This article presents marginal structural models with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and outcome that has been influenced by treatment results in biased estimates of the direct effect (i.e., the effect of treatment on the outcome that does not go through the mediator). One advantage of IPW is that it can properly adjust for this type of confounding, assuming there are no unmeasured confounders. Further, we illustrate that IPW estimation provides unbiased estimates of all effects when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the treatment, when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the mediator, and when the treatment interacts with the mediator. IPW estimation also provides unbiased estimates of all effects in the presence of nonrandomized treatments. In addition, for testing mediation we propose a test of the null hypothesis of no mediation. Finally, we illustrate this approach with an empirical data set in which the mediator is continuous, as is often the case in psychological research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Instrumental variables as bias amplifiers with general outcome and confounding.

PubMed

Ding, P; VanderWeele, T J; Robins, J M

2017-06-01

Drawing causal inference with observational studies is the central pillar of many disciplines. One sufficient condition for identifying the causal effect is that the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded conditional on the observed covariates. It is often believed that the more covariates we condition on, the more plausible this unconfoundedness assumption is. This belief has had a huge impact on practical causal inference, suggesting that we should adjust for all pretreatment covariates. However, when there is unmeasured confounding between the treatment and outcome, estimators adjusting for some pretreatment covariate might have greater bias than estimators without adjusting for this covariate. This kind of covariate is called a bias amplifier, and includes instrumental variables that are independent of the confounder, and affect the outcome only through the treatment. Previously, theoretical results for this phenomenon have been established only for linear models. We fill in this gap in the literature by providing a general theory, showing that this phenomenon happens under a wide class of models satisfying certain monotonicity assumptions. We further show that when the treatment follows an additive or multiplicative model conditional on the instrumental variable and the confounder, these monotonicity assumptions can be interpreted as the signs of the arrows of the causal diagrams.

Association of Acetaminophen Use During Pregnancy With Behavioral Problems in Childhood: Evidence Against Confounding.

PubMed

Stergiakouli, Evie; Thapar, Anita; Davey Smith, George

2016-10-01

Acetaminophen (paracetamol) is used by a large proportion of pregnant women. Research suggests that acetaminophen use in pregnancy is associated with abnormal fetal neurodevelopment. However, it is possible that this association might be confounded by unmeasured behavioral factors linked to acetaminophen use. To examine associations between offspring behavioral problems and (1) maternal prenatal acetaminophen use, (2) maternal postnatal acetaminophen use, and (3) partner's acetaminophen use. From February 2015 to March 2016, we collected and analyzed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a prospective birth cohort. We studied 7796 mothers enrolled in ALSPAC between 1991 and 1992 along with their children and partners. Acetaminophen use was assessed by questionnaire completion at 18 and 32 weeks of pregnancy and when the child was 61 months old. Maternal reports of behavioral problems using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) when the children were 7 years old. We estimated risk ratios for behavioral problems in children after prenatal, postnatal, and partner's exposure to acetaminophen and mutually adjusted each association. Maternal prenatal acetaminophen use at 18 (n = 4415; 53%) and 32 weeks of pregnancy (n = 3381; 42%) was associated with higher odds of having conduct problems (risk ratio [RR], 1.42; 95% CI, 1.25-1.62) and hyperactivity symptoms (RR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.16-1.49), while maternal acetaminophen use at 32 weeks was also associated with higher odds of having emotional symptoms (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.53) and total difficulties (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.21-1.77). This was not the case for maternal postnatal (n = 6916; 89%) or partner's (n = 3454; 84%) acetaminophen use. We found the associations between maternal prenatal acetaminophen use and all the SDQ domains unchanged even after adjusting for maternal postnatal or partner's acetaminophen use. Children exposed to acetaminophen prenatally are at increased risk of multiple behavioral difficulties, and the associations do not appear to be explained by unmeasured behavioral or social factors linked to acetaminophen use insofar as they are not observed for postnatal or partner's acetaminophen use. Although these results could have implications for public health advice, further studies are required to replicate the findings and to understand mechanisms.

Association of Acetaminophen Use During Pregnancy With Behavioral Problems in Childhood: Evidence Against Confounding

PubMed Central

Stergiakouli, Evie; Thapar, Anita; Davey Smith, George

2017-01-01

Importance Acetaminophen (paracetamol) is used by a large proportion of pregnant women. Research suggests that acetaminophen use in pregnancy is associated with abnormal fetal neurodevelopment. However, it is possible that this association might be confounded by unmeasured behavioral factors linked to acetaminophen use. Objective To examine associations between offspring behavioral problems and (1) maternal prenatal acetaminophen use, (2) maternal postnatal acetaminophen use, and (3) partner’s acetaminophen use. Design, Setting, and Participants From February 2015 to March 2016, we collected and analyzed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a prospective birth cohort. We studied 7796 mothers enrolled in ALSPAC between 1991 and 1992 along with their children and partners. Exposures Acetaminophen use was assessed by questionnaire completion at 18 and 32 weeks of pregnancy and when the child was 61 months old. Main Outcomes and Measures Maternal reports of behavioral problems using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) when the children were 7 years old. We estimated risk ratios for behavioral problems in children after prenatal, postnatal, and partner’s exposure to acetaminophen and mutually adjusted each association. Results Maternal prenatal acetaminophen use at 18 (n = 4415; 53%) and 32 weeks of pregnancy (n = 3381; 42%) was associated with higher odds of having conduct problems (risk ratio [RR], 1.42; 95% CI, 1.25-1.62) and hyperactivity symptoms (RR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.16-1.49), while maternal acetaminophen use at 32 weeks was also associated with higher odds of having emotional symptoms (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.53) and total difficulties (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.21-1.77). This was not the case for maternal postnatal (n = 6916; 89%) or partner’s (n = 3454; 84%) acetaminophen use. We found the associations between maternal prenatal acetaminophen use and all the SDQ domains unchanged even after adjusting for maternal postnatal or partner’s acetaminophen use. Conclusions and Relevance Children exposed to acetaminophen prenatally are at increased risk of multiple behavioral difficulties, and the associations do not appear to be explained by unmeasured behavioral or social factors linked to acetaminophen use insofar as they are not observed for postnatal or partner’s acetaminophen use. Although these results could have implications for public health advice, further studies are required to replicate the findings and to understand mechanisms. PMID:27533796

Confounding of the Association between Radiation Exposure from CT Scans and Risk of Leukemia and Brain Tumors by Cancer Susceptibility Syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-01-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of CT scans performed in children. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk estimates. Because there is virtually no empirical evidence in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about the current and previous patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome, or other CSS. In contrast, RRs for brain tumors may be overestimated due to confounding by tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) while von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1, or other CSS do not meaningfully confound. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients are urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with leukemia reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS, whereas brain tumor risks might have been overestimated due to confounding by TSC. Future studies should identify TSC patients in order to avoid overestimation of brain tumor risks due to radiation exposure from CT scans. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977

Instrumental variable applications using nursing home prescribing preferences in comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Huybrechts, Krista F; Gerhard, Tobias; Franklin, Jessica M; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2014-08-01

Nursing home residents are of particular interest for comparative effectiveness research given their susceptibility to adverse treatment effects and systematic exclusion from trials. However, the risk of residual confounding because of unmeasured markers of declining health using conventional analytic methods is high. We evaluated the validity of instrumental variable (IV) methods based on nursing home prescribing preference to mitigate such confounding, using psychotropic medications to manage behavioral problems in dementia as a case study. A cohort using linked data from Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set, and Online Survey, Certification and Reporting for 2001-2004 was established. Dual-eligible patients ≥65 years who initiated psychotropic medication use after admission were selected. Nursing home prescribing preference was characterized using mixed-effects logistic regression models. The plausibility of IV assumptions was explored, and the association between psychotropic medication class and 180-day mortality was estimated. High-prescribing and low-prescribing nursing homes differed by a factor of 2. Each preference-based IV measure described a substantial proportion of variation in psychotropic medication choice (β(IV → treatment): 0.22-0.36). Measured patient characteristics were well balanced across patient groups based on instrument status (52% average reduction in Mahalanobis distance). There was no evidence that instrument status was associated with markers of nursing home quality of care. Findings indicate that IV analyses using nursing home prescribing preference may be a useful approach in comparative effectiveness studies, and should extend naturally to analyses including untreated comparison groups, which are of great scientific interest but subject to even stronger confounding. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

PubMed

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-01-01

This article provides an overview of recent developments in mediation analysis, that is, analyses used to assess the relative magnitude of different pathways and mechanisms by which an exposure may affect an outcome. Traditional approaches to mediation in the biomedical and social sciences are described. Attention is given to the confounding assumptions required for a causal interpretation of direct and indirect effect estimates. Methods from the causal inference literature to conduct mediation in the presence of exposure-mediator interactions, binary outcomes, binary mediators, and case-control study designs are presented. Sensitivity analysis techniques for unmeasured confounding and measurement error are introduced. Discussion is given to extensions to time-to-event outcomes and multiple mediators. Further flexible modeling strategies arising from the precise counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects are also described. The focus throughout is on methodology that is easily implementable in practice across a broad range of potential applications.

The declining influence of family background on educational attainment in Australia: The role of measured and unmeasured influences.

PubMed

Marks, Gary N; Mooi-Reci, Irma

2016-01-01

The paper examines changes in the influence of family background, including socioeconomic and social background variables on educational attainment in Australia for cohorts born between 1890 and 1982. We test hypotheses from modernization theory on sibling data using random effects models and find: (i) substantial declines in the influence of family background on educational attainment (indicated by the sibling intraclass correlations); (ii) declines in the effects of both economic and cultural socioeconomic background variables; (iii) changes in the effects of some social background variables (e.g., family size); (iv) and declines in the extent that socioeconomic and social background factors account for variation in educational attainment. Unmeasured family background factors are more important, and proportionally increasingly so, for educational attainment than the measured socioeconomic and social background factors analyzed. Fixed effects models showed steeper declines in the effects of socioeconomic background variables than in standard analyses suggesting that unmeasured family factors associated with socioeconomic background obscure the full extent of the decline. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

Response Bias in Research on Religion, Spirituality and Mental Health: A Critical Review of the Literature and Methodological Recommendations.

PubMed

de Oliveira Maraldi, Everton

2018-05-16

Although a significant body of research supports the psychological benefits of religion and spirituality, more investigations are needed to understand the mechanisms by which they impact mental health. While some studies suggest a causal direct influence, the findings may still be subject to unmeasured factors and confounders. Despite compelling empirical support for the dangers of response bias, this has been a widely neglected topic in mental health research. The aim of this essay is to critically examine the literature addressing the role of response bias in the relationship between religion, spirituality and mental health. A survey of the diverse types of bias in this research area is presented, and methodological and theoretical issues are outlined. The validity and generalizability of the evidence are discussed, as well as the implications for mental health practice. A list of methodological remedies to reduce bias is suggested. The article is then concluded with a summary of the studies reviewed and directions for future research.

Advancing Research on Racial–Ethnic Health Disparities: Improving Measurement Equivalence in Studies with Diverse Samples

PubMed Central

Landrine, Hope; Corral, Irma

2014-01-01

To conduct meaningful, epidemiologic research on racial–ethnic health disparities, racial–ethnic samples must be rendered equivalent on other social status and contextual variables via statistical controls of those extraneous factors. The racial–ethnic groups must also be equally familiar with and have similar responses to the methods and measures used to collect health data, must have equal opportunity to participate in the research, and must be equally representative of their respective populations. In the absence of such measurement equivalence, studies of racial–ethnic health disparities are confounded by a plethora of unmeasured, uncontrolled correlates of race–ethnicity. Those correlates render the samples, methods, and measures incomparable across racial–ethnic groups, and diminish the ability to attribute health differences discovered to race–ethnicity vs. to its correlates. This paper reviews the non-equivalent yet normative samples, methodologies and measures used in epidemiologic studies of racial–ethnic health disparities, and provides concrete suggestions for improving sample, method, and scalar measurement equivalence. PMID:25566524

Results of an Academic, Health Care Worksite Weight Loss Contest for Southeastern Americans: Scale Back Alabama 2011-2013.

PubMed

Breaux-Shropshire, Tonya L; Whitt, Lauren; Oster, Robert A; Lewis, Dwight; Shropshire, Toneyell S; Calhoun, David A

2015-04-01

Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of competitive incentivized worksite weight loss programs. Scale Back Alabama (SBA) is a free, state-supported program designed to promote weight loss among overweight and obese citizens. The purpose of this manuscript is to describe the design and preliminary findings of SBA as a worksite intervention among employees at a collegiate institution and university hospital. In teams of 4 employees, SBA participants volunteered to engage in a 10-week competitive weight loss contest; both teams and individuals who lost significant weight were eligible for randomly drawn cash incentives. Trained staff objectively measured participants' weight before and at the conclusion of the contest. Preliminary analyses suggest that SBA as a worksite program can promote weight loss among employees, but future analyses are warranted to understand the context of these findings and determine if current results are confounded by unmeasured factors. © 2015 The Author(s).

Are Early-Life Socioeconomic Conditions Directly Related to Birth Outcomes? Grandmaternal Education, Grandchild Birth Weight, and Associated Bias Analyses

PubMed Central

Huang, Jonathan Y.; Gavin, Amelia R.; Richardson, Thomas S.; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Siscovick, David S.; Enquobahrie, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

Grandmaternal education may be related to grandchild birth weight (GBW) through maternal early-life development; however, conventional regression models may be endogenously confounded. Alternative models employing explicit structural assumptions may provide incrementally clearer evidence. We used data from the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1995–2009; 1,681 mother-child pairs) to estimate “direct effects” of grandmaternal educational level (less than high school, high school diploma or equivalent, or college degree) at the time of the mother's birth on GBW, adjusted for maternal life-course factors: maltreatment as a child, education and income as an adult, prepregnancy overweight, and prenatal smoking. Using conventional and marginal structural model (MSM) approaches, we estimated 54-g (95% confidence interval: −14.0, 122.1) and 87-g (95% confidence interval: 10.9, 162.5) higher GBWs per increase in educational level, respectively. The MSM allowed simultaneous mediation by and adjustment for prepregnancy overweight. Estimates were insensitive to alternate structural assumptions and mediator parameterizations. Bias analysis suggested that a single unmeasured confounder would have to have a strong influence on GBW (approximately 150 g) or be greatly imbalanced across exposure groups (approximately 25%) to completely explain the findings. Coupling an MSM with sensitivity analyses provides some evidence that maternal early-life socioeconomic environment is directly associated with offspring birth weight. PMID:26283086

Testing the association between social capital and health over time: a family-based design

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The past decade has seen a vast increase in empirical research investigating associations between social capital and health outcomes. Literature reviews reveal ‘generalized trust’ and ‘social participation’ to be the most robust of the commonly used social capital proxies, both showing positive association with health outcomes. However, this association could be confounded by unmeasured factors, such as the shared environment. Currently, there is a distinct lack of social capital research that takes into account such residual confounding. Methods Using data from the United Kingdom’s British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) (waves thirteen to eighteen, N = 6982), this longitudinal, multilevel study investigates the validity of the association between trust, social participation and self-rated health using a family-based design. As the BHPS samples on entire households, we employed ‘mean’ and ‘difference from the mean’ aggregate measures of social capital, the latter of which is considered a social capital measurement that is not biased by the shared environment of the household. We employed Generalized Estimating Equations for all analyses, our two-level model controlling for correlation at the household level. Results Results show that after adjusting for the shared environment of the household over a six year period, the association between social participation and self-rated health was fully attenuated (OR = 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.89-1.06)), while the association with trust remained significant (OR = 1.11 (1.02-1.20)). Other health determinants, such as being a smoker, having no formal qualifications and being unemployed maintain their associations with poor self-rated health. Conclusions The association between social capital (specifically trust and social participation) and self-rated health appear to be confounded by shared environmental factors not previously considered by researchers. However, the association with trust remains, adding to existing empirical evidence that generalized trust may be an independent predictor of health. PMID:23866259

Accounting for Selectivity Bias and Correlation Across the Sequence From Elevated Blood Pressure to Hypertension Diagnosis and Treatment.

PubMed

Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Attard, Samantha M; Howard, Annie Green; Popkin, Barry M; Zhang, Bing; Du, Shufa; Guilkey, David K

2017-12-08

It is unknown whether efforts to reduce hypertension burden in countries with very high prevalence, would be more effective if directed at hypertension diagnosis vs. treatment. Most analyses do not address bias and correlation across the sequence from elevated blood pressure (BP) to hypertension diagnosis and treatment, leading to potentially misleading findings. Using data spanning 18 years of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (n = 18,926; ages 18-75 years), we used an innovative 3-step, integrated system of equations to predict the sequence from: (i) elevated BP (systolic/diastolic BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg) to (ii) diagnosed hypertension conditional on elevated BP, and to (iii) treatment (medication use) conditional on diagnosis, accounting for measured and unmeasured individual- and community-level confounders at each of the 3 steps. We compared results to separate traditional logistic regression models without control for unmeasured confounding. Using our 3-step model, elevated BP increased from 12.6% and 8.5% (1991) to 36.8% and 29% (2009) in men and women, respectively, but diagnosis remained under 50%. We found widening disparities in hypertension diagnosis (higher hypertension at lower vs. higher education (difference of 2% in 1991 that widened to 5% in 2009)) and narrowing disparities in education (difference of 6% in 1991 to 4% in 2009) and insurance status (difference of 7% in 1991 to 2% in 2009) for treatment. Our 3-step model improved model fit over traditionally used models. Our findings highlight serious barriers to hypertension diagnosis in Chinese adults, particularly among men and individuals of low attained education. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2017. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Instrumental Variable Methods for Continuous Outcomes That Accommodate Nonignorable Missing Baseline Values.

PubMed

Ertefaie, Ashkan; Flory, James H; Hennessy, Sean; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-15

Instrumental variable (IV) methods provide unbiased treatment effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounders under certain assumptions. To provide valid estimates of treatment effect, treatment effect confounders that are associated with the IV (IV-confounders) must be included in the analysis, and not including observations with missing values may lead to bias. Missing covariate data are particularly problematic when the probability that a value is missing is related to the value itself, which is known as nonignorable missingness. In such cases, imputation-based methods are biased. Using health-care provider preference as an IV method, we propose a 2-step procedure with which to estimate a valid treatment effect in the presence of baseline variables with nonignorable missing values. First, the provider preference IV value is estimated by performing a complete-case analysis using a random-effects model that includes IV-confounders. Second, the treatment effect is estimated using a 2-stage least squares IV approach that excludes IV-confounders with missing values. Simulation results are presented, and the method is applied to an analysis comparing the effects of sulfonylureas versus metformin on body mass index, where the variables baseline body mass index and glycosylated hemoglobin have missing values. Our result supports the association of sulfonylureas with weight gain. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assumption Trade-Offs When Choosing Identification Strategies for Pre-Post Treatment Effect Estimation: An Illustration of a Community-Based Intervention in Madagascar.

PubMed

Weber, Ann M; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2015-03-01

Failure (or success) in finding a statistically significant effect of a large-scale intervention may be due to choices made in the evaluation. To highlight the potential limitations and pitfalls of some common identification strategies used for estimating causal effects of community-level interventions, we apply a roadmap for causal inference to a pre-post evaluation of a national nutrition program in Madagascar. Selection into the program was non-random and strongly associated with the pre-treatment (lagged) outcome. Using structural causal models (SCM), directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and simulated data, we illustrate that an estimand with the outcome defined as the post-treatment outcome controls for confounding by the lagged outcome but not by possible unmeasured confounders. Two separate differencing estimands (of the pre- and post-treatment outcome) have the potential to adjust for a certain type of unmeasured confounding, but introduce bias if the additional identification assumptions they rely on are not met. In order to illustrate the practical impact of choice between three common identification strategies and their corresponding estimands, we used observational data from the community nutrition program in Madagascar to estimate each of these three estimands. Specifically, we estimated the average treatment effect of the program on the community mean nutritional status of children 5 years and under and found that the estimate based on the post-treatment estimand was about a quarter of the magnitude of either of the differencing estimands (0.066 SD vs. 0.26-0.27 SD increase in mean weight-for-age z-score). Choice of estimand clearly has important implications for the interpretation of the success of the program to improve nutritional status of young children. A careful appraisal of the assumptions underlying the causal model is imperative before committing to a statistical model and progressing to estimation. However, knowledge about the data-generating process must be sufficient in order to choose the identification strategy that gets us closest to the truth.

Psychosocial and socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular mortality in Eastern Europe: A multicentre prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tillmann, Taavi; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Steptoe, Andrew; Kivimäki, Mika; Marmot, Michael; Bobak, Martin

2017-12-01

Eastern European countries have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, much of which cannot be adequately accounted for by conventional CVD risk factors. Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors may affect risk of CVD, but relatively few studies on this issue have been undertaken in Eastern Europe. We investigated whether various psychosocial factors are associated with CVD mortality independently from each other and whether they can help explain differences in CVD mortality between Eastern European populations. Participants were from the Health, Alcohol and Psychological factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) cohort study in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, including a total of 20,867 men and women aged 43-74 years and free of CVD at baseline examination during 2002-2005. Participants were followed-up for CVD mortality after linkage to national mortality registries for a median of 7.2 years. During the follow-up, 556 participants died from CVD. After mutual adjustment, six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with increased risk of CVD death: unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends or relatives. The hazard ratios [HRs] for these six factors ranged between 1.26 [95% confidence interval 1.14-1.40] and 1.81 [95% confidence interval 1.24-2.64], fully adjusted for each other, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Population-attributable fractions ranged from 8% [4%-13%] to 22% [11%-31%] for each factor, when measured on average across the three cohorts. However, the prevalence of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors and their HRs were similar between the three countries. Altogether, these factors could not explain why participants from Russia had higher CVD mortality when compared to participants from Poland/Czech Republic. Limitations of this study include measurement error that could lead to residual confounding; and the possibilities for reverse causation and/or unmeasured confounding from observational studies to lead to associations that are not causal in nature. Six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with cardiovascular mortality, independent of each other. Differences in mortality between cohorts from Russia versus Poland or Check Republic remained unexplained.

Psychosocial and socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular mortality in Eastern Europe: A multicentre prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Kubinova, Ruzena; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Marmot, Michael; Bobak, Martin

2017-01-01

Background Eastern European countries have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, much of which cannot be adequately accounted for by conventional CVD risk factors. Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors may affect risk of CVD, but relatively few studies on this issue have been undertaken in Eastern Europe. We investigated whether various psychosocial factors are associated with CVD mortality independently from each other and whether they can help explain differences in CVD mortality between Eastern European populations. Methods Participants were from the Health, Alcohol and Psychological factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) cohort study in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, including a total of 20,867 men and women aged 43–74 years and free of CVD at baseline examination during 2002–2005. Participants were followed-up for CVD mortality after linkage to national mortality registries for a median of 7.2 years. Results During the follow-up, 556 participants died from CVD. After mutual adjustment, six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with increased risk of CVD death: unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends or relatives. The hazard ratios [HRs] for these six factors ranged between 1.26 [95% confidence interval 1.14–1.40] and 1.81 [95% confidence interval 1.24–2.64], fully adjusted for each other, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Population-attributable fractions ranged from 8% [4%–13%] to 22% [11%–31%] for each factor, when measured on average across the three cohorts. However, the prevalence of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors and their HRs were similar between the three countries. Altogether, these factors could not explain why participants from Russia had higher CVD mortality when compared to participants from Poland/Czech Republic. Limitations of this study include measurement error that could lead to residual confounding; and the possibilities for reverse causation and/or unmeasured confounding from observational studies to lead to associations that are not causal in nature. Conclusions Six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with cardiovascular mortality, independent of each other. Differences in mortality between cohorts from Russia versus Poland or Check Republic remained unexplained. PMID:29211726

Dietary sugar and artificial sweetener intake and chronic kidney disease: a review.

PubMed

Karalius, Vytas P; Shoham, David A

2013-03-01

Sugar consumption, especially in the form of fructose, has been hypothesized to cause kidney disease. This review provides an overview of the epidemiologic evidence that sugar consumption increases CKD risk. Research supports a causal role of sugar in several kidney disease risk factors, including increasing serum uric acid levels, diabetes, and obesity. Sugar may also harm the kidney via other mechanisms. There is no evidence that sucrose is any safer for the kidney than high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) because both are similar in composition. To date, 5 epidemiologic studies have directly evaluated the relationship between sugar consumption (in the form of sugar-sweetened beverages) and CKD. Although most studies suggest that the risk of CKD is elevated among consumers of sugar-sweetened beverages, only 2 studies report statistically significant associations. Three studies have also examined diet soda consumption, with two reporting positive and significant associations. Confounding by unmeasured lifestyle factors may play a role in the positive results whereas poor measurement of sugar and artificial sweetener intake could explain null results. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that sugar causes kidney disease remains plausible, and alternative research designs may be needed. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Birth by Caesarean Section and the Risk of Adult Psychosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

O’Neill, Sinéad M.; Curran, Eileen A.; Dalman, Christina; Kenny, Louise C.; Kearney, Patricia M.; Clarke, Gerard; Cryan, John F.; Dinan, Timothy G.; Khashan, Ali S.

2016-01-01

Despite the biological plausibility of an association between obstetric mode of delivery and psychosis in later life, studies to date have been inconclusive. We assessed the association between mode of delivery and later onset of psychosis in the offspring. A population-based cohort including data from the Swedish National Registers was used. All singleton live births between 1982 and 1995 were identified (n = 1 345 210) and followed-up to diagnosis at age 16 or later. Mode of delivery was categorized as: unassisted vaginal delivery (VD), assisted VD, elective Caesarean section (CS) (before onset of labor), and emergency CS (after onset of labor). Outcomes included any psychosis; nonaffective psychoses (including schizophrenia only) and affective psychoses (including bipolar disorder only and depression with psychosis only). Cox regression analysis was used reporting partially and fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sibling-matched Cox regression was performed to adjust for familial confounding factors. In the fully adjusted analyses, elective CS was significantly associated with any psychosis (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03, 1.24). Similar findings were found for nonaffective psychoses (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99, 1.29) and affective psychoses (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05, 1.31) (χ2 for heterogeneity P = .69). In the sibling-matched Cox regression, this association disappeared (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.78, 1.37). No association was found between assisted VD or emergency CS and psychosis. This study found that elective CS is associated with an increase in offspring psychosis. However, the association did not persist in the sibling-matched analysis, implying the association is likely due to familial confounding by unmeasured factors such as genetics or environment. PMID:26615187

Social participation and coronary heart disease risk in a large prospective study of UK women

PubMed Central

Balkwill, Angela; Canoy, Dexter; Reeves, Gillian K; Green, Jane; Beral, Valerie; Cairns, Benjamin J

2015-01-01

Background Participation in social activities is thought to prevent heart disease, but evidence is inconclusive. Design We assessed whether participating in social activities reduces the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a large prospective study of 735,159 middle-aged UK women. Methods Women reported their participation in eight social activities (religious group, voluntary work, adult education, art/craft/music, dancing, sports club, yoga, bingo) and were followed for first CHD event (hospital admission or death) over the next 8.6 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate relative risks for CHD incidence by participation in each and in any of the social activities. Results After adjustment for age and region only, every activity except bingo was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (n = 30,756 cases in total). However, after additional adjustment for 11 factors (deprivation, education, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol, marital status, self-rated health, happiness, hypertension, diabetes), every relative risk estimate moved close to 1.0. For example, for participation in any of the activities compared with none, the relative risk adjusted for age and region only was 0.83 (99% confidence interval 0.81–0.86), but changed to 1.06 (99% confidence interval 1.02–1.09) after additional adjustment. Adjustment for education, self-rated health, smoking and physical activity attenuated the associations most strongly. Residual confounding and other unmeasured factors may well account for any small remaining associations. Conclusions Associations between participation in various social activities and CHD risk appear to be largely or wholly due to confounding by personal characteristics of the participants. PMID:26416995

Social participation and coronary heart disease risk in a large prospective study of UK women.

PubMed

Floud, Sarah; Balkwill, Angela; Canoy, Dexter; Reeves, Gillian K; Green, Jane; Beral, Valerie; Cairns, Benjamin J

2016-06-01

Participation in social activities is thought to prevent heart disease, but evidence is inconclusive. We assessed whether participating in social activities reduces the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a large prospective study of 735,159 middle-aged UK women. Women reported their participation in eight social activities (religious group, voluntary work, adult education, art/craft/music, dancing, sports club, yoga, bingo) and were followed for first CHD event (hospital admission or death) over the next 8.6 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate relative risks for CHD incidence by participation in each and in any of the social activities. After adjustment for age and region only, every activity except bingo was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (n = 30,756 cases in total). However, after additional adjustment for 11 factors (deprivation, education, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol, marital status, self-rated health, happiness, hypertension, diabetes), every relative risk estimate moved close to 1.0. For example, for participation in any of the activities compared with none, the relative risk adjusted for age and region only was 0.83 (99% confidence interval 0.81-0.86), but changed to 1.06 (99% confidence interval 1.02-1.09) after additional adjustment. Adjustment for education, self-rated health, smoking and physical activity attenuated the associations most strongly. Residual confounding and other unmeasured factors may well account for any small remaining associations. Associations between participation in various social activities and CHD risk appear to be largely or wholly due to confounding by personal characteristics of the participants. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Chromosome 9p21 In Ischemic Stroke: Population Structure and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, CD; Biffi, A; Rost, NS; Cortellini, L; Furie, KL; Rosand, J

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Sequence variants on chromosome 9p21.3 are implicated in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction (MI), but studies in ischemic stroke have produced inconsistent results. We investigated whether these conflicting findings were due to false positive studies confounded by population stratification, or false negative studies that failed to account for effects specific to certain stroke subtypes. Methods After assessing for population stratification at 9p21.3 using genome-wide data, we meta-analyzed 8 ischemic stroke studies. This analysis focused on two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs1537378 and rs10757278, as these variants are in strong linkage disequilibrium with most SNPs analyzed in prior studies of the region. Results Principal component analysis of the genome-wide data showed no evidence of population stratification at that locus. Meta-analysis confirmed that both rs1537378 and rs10757278 are risk factors for ischemic stroke (odds ratios 1.09, [p = 0.0014], and 1.11, [p = 0.001] respectively). Subtype analysis revealed a substantial increase in the effect of each SNP for risk of large artery (LA) stroke, achieving an effect size similar to that seen in CAD/MI. Conclusions Variants on 9p21.3 are associated with ischemic stroke, and restriction of analysis to LA stroke increases effect size towards that observed in prior association studies of CAD/MI. Previous inconsistent findings are best explained by this subtype-specificity rather than any unmeasured confounding by population stratification. PMID:20395606

The impact of presumed consent legislation on cadaveric organ donation: a cross-country study.

PubMed

Abadie, Alberto; Gay, Sebastien

2006-07-01

In the U.S., Great Britain and in many other countries, the gap between the demand and the supply of human organs for transplantation is on the rise, despite the efforts of governments and health agencies to promote donor registration. In some countries of continental Europe, however, cadaveric organ procurement is based on the principle of presumed consent. Under presumed consent legislation, a deceased individual is classified as a potential donor in absence of explicit opposition to donation before death. This article analyzes the impact of presumed consent laws on donation rates. For this purpose, we construct a dataset on organ donation rates and potential factors affecting organ donation for 22 countries over a 10-year period. We find that while differences in other determinants of organ donation explain much of the variation in donation rates, after controlling for those determinants presumed consent legislation has a positive and sizeable effect on organ donation rates. We use the panel structure of our dataset to test and reject the hypothesis that unmeasured determinants of organ donation rates confound our empirical results.

Understanding causal pathways within health systems policy evaluation through mediation analysis: an application to payment for performance (P4P) in Tanzania.

PubMed

Anselmi, Laura; Binyaruka, Peter; Borghi, Josephine

2017-02-02

The evaluation of payment for performance (P4P) programmes has focused mainly on understanding contributions to health service coverage, without unpacking causal mechanisms. The overall aim of the paper is to test the causal pathways through which P4P schemes may (or may not) influence maternal care outcomes. We used data from an evaluation of a P4P programme in Tanzania. Data were collected from a sample of 3000 women who delivered in the 12 months prior to interview and 200 health workers at 150 health facilities from seven intervention and four comparison districts in Tanzania in January 2012 and in February 2013. We applied causal mediation analysis using a linear structural equation model to identify direct and indirect effects of P4P on institutional delivery rates and on the uptake of two doses of an antimalarial drug during pregnancy. We first ran a series of linear difference-in-difference regression models to test the effect of P4P on potential mediators, which we then included in a linear difference-in-difference model evaluating the impact of P4P on the outcome. We tested the robustness of our results to unmeasured confounding using semi-parametric methods. P4P reduced the probability of women paying for delivery care (-4.5 percentage points) which mediates the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 78%). P4P reduced the stock-out rate for some essential drugs, specifically oxytocin (-36 percentage points), which mediated the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 22%) and deliveries in a public health facility (by 30%). P4P increased kindness at delivery (5 percentage points), which mediated the effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 49%). P4P increased the likelihood of supervision visits taking place within the last 90 days (18 percentage points), which mediated 15% of the total P4P effect on the uptake of two antimalarial doses during antenatal care (IPT2). Kindness during deliveries and the probability of paying out of pocket for delivery care were the mediators most robust to unmeasured confounding. The effect of P4P on institutional deliveries is mediated by financing and human resources factors, while uptake of antimalarials in pregnancy is mediated by governance factors. Further research is required to explore additional and more complex causal pathways.

Association of Labor Induction With Offspring Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

Oberg, Anna Sara; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Rickert, Martin E.; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Ecker, Jeffrey L.; Almqvist, Catarina; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Bateman, Brian T.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Induction of labor is a frequently performed obstetrical intervention. It would thus be of great concern if reported associations between labor induction and offspring risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) reflected causal influence. OBJECTIVE To assess the associations of labor induction with ASD, comparing differentially exposed relatives (siblings and cousins discordant for induction). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Follow-up of all live births in Sweden between 1992 and 2005, defined in the Medical Birth Register. The register was linked to population registers of familial relations, inpatient and outpatient visits, and education records. Diagnoses of ASD were from 2001 through 2013, and data were analyzed in the 2015–2016 year. EXPOSURES Induction of labor. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Autism spectrum disorders identified by diagnoses from inpatient and outpatient records between 2001 and 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) quantified the association between labor induction and offspring ASD. In addition to considering a wide range of measured confounders, comparison of exposure-discordant births to the same woman allowed additional control for all unmeasured factors shared by siblings. RESULTS The full cohort included 1 362 950 births, of which 22 077 offspring (1.6%) were diagnosed with ASD by ages 8 years through 21 years. In conventional models of the full cohort, associations between labor induction and offspring ASD were attenuated but remained statistically significant after adjustment for measured potential confounders (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13–1.24). When comparison was made within siblings whose births were discordant with respect to induction, thus accounting for all environmental and genetic factors shared by siblings, labor induction was no longer associated with offspring ASD (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88–1.10). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this nationwide sample of live births we observed no association between induction of labor and offspring ASD within sibling comparison. Our findings suggest that concern for ASD should not factor into the clinical decision about whether to induce labor. PMID:27454803

Improved Overall Survival with Aggressive Primary Tumor Radiotherapy for Patients with Metastatic Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

Guttmann, David M; Mitra, Nandita; Bekelman, Justin; Metz, James M; Plastaras, John; Feng, Weiwei; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to characterize utilization and survival outcomes associated with primary tumor-directed radiotherapy (PTDRT) in patients with newly diagnosed metastatic esophageal cancer. We conducted an observational cohort study using the National Cancer Data Base to evaluate patients with newly diagnosed metastatic esophageal cancer between 2004 and 2012. Overall survival outcomes after treatment with chemotherapy plus conventional palliative dose radiotherapy (<5040 cGy), chemotherapy plus definitive dose radiotherapy (≥5040 cGy), or chemotherapy alone were compared by using Cox proportional hazards models with inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. Potential unmeasured confounding was assessed through sensitivity analyses. The final cohort consisted of 12,683 patients: 57% were treated with chemotherapy alone, 24% were treated with chemotherapy plus palliative dose radiotherapy, and 19% were treated with chemotherapy plus definitive dose radiotherapy. Compared with chemotherapy alone, chemotherapy plus definitive dose radiotherapy was associated with improved survival (median overall survival of 8.3 versus 11.3 months [hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.74, p ≤ 0.001]), whereas chemotherapy plus palliative dose radiotherapy was associated with slightly inferior outcomes (median overall survival of 8.3 months versus 7.5 months (hazard ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.13, p ≤ 0.001). These findings were robust to potential unmeasured confounding in sensitivity analyses. Additionally, landmark analyses confirmed these findings in patients surviving 12 months or longer. Definitive dose, but not conventional palliative dose, PTDRT is associated with improved overall survival in metastatic esophageal cancer, suggesting that local control may be important to prognosis. These findings support integrating PTDRT into future clinical trials aimed at refining personalized treatment for patients with metastatic esophageal cancer. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detecting regulatory gene-environment interactions with unmeasured environmental factors.

PubMed

Fusi, Nicoló; Lippert, Christoph; Borgwardt, Karsten; Lawrence, Neil D; Stegle, Oliver

2013-06-01

Genomic studies have revealed a substantial heritable component of the transcriptional state of the cell. To fully understand the genetic regulation of gene expression variability, it is important to study the effect of genotype in the context of external factors such as alternative environmental conditions. In model systems, explicit environmental perturbations have been considered for this purpose, allowing to directly test for environment-specific genetic effects. However, such experiments are limited to species that can be profiled in controlled environments, hampering their use in important systems such as human. Moreover, even in seemingly tightly regulated experimental conditions, subtle environmental perturbations cannot be ruled out, and hence unknown environmental influences are frequent. Here, we propose a model-based approach to simultaneously infer unmeasured environmental factors from gene expression profiles and use them in genetic analyses, identifying environment-specific associations between polymorphic loci and individual gene expression traits. In extensive simulation studies, we show that our method is able to accurately reconstruct environmental factors and their interactions with genotype in a variety of settings. We further illustrate the use of our model in a real-world dataset in which one environmental factor has been explicitly experimentally controlled. Our method is able to accurately reconstruct the true underlying environmental factor even if it is not given as an input, allowing to detect genuine genotype-environment interactions. In addition to the known environmental factor, we find unmeasured factors involved in novel genotype-environment interactions. Our results suggest that interactions with both known and unknown environmental factors significantly contribute to gene expression variability. and implementation: Software available at http://pmbio.github.io/envGPLVM/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

[The case-case-time-control study design].

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Zhuo, Lin; Zhan, Siyan

2014-12-01

Although the 'self-matched case-only studies' (such as the case-cross-over or self-controlled case-series method) can control the time-invariant confounders (measured or unmeasured) through design of the study, however, they can not control those confounders that vary with time. A bidirectional case-crossover design can be used to adjust the exposure-time trends. In the areas of pharmaco-epidemiology, illness often influence the future use of medications, making a bidirectional study design problematic. Suissa's case-time-control design combines the case-crossover and the case-control design which could adjust for exposure-trend bias, but the control group may reintroduce selection bias, if the matching does not go well. We propose a "case-case-time-control" design which is an extension of the case-time-control design. However, rather than using a sample of external controls, we choose those future cases as controls for current cases to counter the bias that arising from temporal trends caused by exposure to the target of interest. In the end of this article we will discuss the strength and limitations of this design based on an applied example.

Twins' risk of childhood asthma mediated by gestational age and birthweight.

PubMed

Ullemar, V; Lundholm, C; Almqvist, C

2015-08-01

Children born with low gestational age (GA) or low birthweight (BW) are at increased risk of asthma. Twins as compared to singletons are on average more likely to be born with lower GA and BW and have been hypothesized to comprise a high-risk population for asthma. Many previous studies have not accounted for potential confounders or mediators. To investigate the association between twinship and childhood asthma or early life wheeze and identify potential mediators, such as GA/BW. The study population consisted of two cohorts including all children born in Sweden from 1 January 1993 to 1 June 2001 (n = 756,363 singletons, n = 22,478 twins) and 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2009 (n = 456,239 singletons, n = 12,872 twins). Asthma was defined using validated register-based outcomes of diagnosis or medication. The data were analysed using logistic (older cohort) and Cox regression (younger cohort). Adjusted models incorporated potential confounding or mediating factors including gestational age and birthweight. In the younger cohort, the crude hazard ratio (HR) of asthma medication after 1.5 years of age was 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.23), and fully adjusted HR was 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.89. Crude HR of asthma diagnosis in the same age group was 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.30), fully adjusted 0.78 (0.68-0.98). Adjusted analyses in the older group yielded similar results. Twins were at significantly higher unadjusted risk of asthma or early life wheeze compared to singletons in the younger, but not in the older cohort. Associations attenuated following adjustment for GA/BW, suggesting that GA/BW mediates the effect of twinship on asthma risk. After adjustments, twins were at lower risk of asthma outcomes, possibly due to unmeasured confounding. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of autism spectrum disorder in offspring following paternal use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors before conception: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Yang, Fen; Chen, Jianping; Miao, Mao-Hua; Yuan, Wei; Li, Lin; Liang, Hong; Ehrenstein, Vera; Li, Jiong

2017-01-01

Objective The present study aimed to examine the association between paternal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use before conception and the risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in offspring. Design A population-based cohort study. Methods We conducted a cohort study of 669 922 children born from 1998 to 2008, with follow-up throughout 2013. Based on Danish national registers, we linked information on paternal use of SSRIs, ASD diagnosed in children and a range of potential confounders. The children whose fathers used SSRIs during the last 3 months prior to conception were identified as the exposed. Cox regression model was used to estimate the HR for ASD in children. Results Compared with unexposed children, the exposed had a 1.62-fold higher risk of ASD (95% CI 1.33 to 1.96) and the risk attenuated after adjusting for potential confounders, especially fathers’ psychiatric conditions (HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.74). When extending the exposure window to 1 year before conception, the increased risk persisted in children of fathers using SSRIs only from the last year until the last 3 months prior to conception (HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.94) but not in children of fathers using SSRIs only during the last 3 months prior to conception (HR=1.17, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.82). We also performed stratified analyses according to paternal history of affective disorders and observed no increased ASD risk among children whose father had affective disorders. Besides, the sibling analysis showed that the ASD risk did not increase among exposed children compared with their unexposed siblings. Conclusions The mildly increased risk of ASD in the offspring associated with paternal SSRI use before conception may be attributable to paternal underlying psychiatric indications related to SSRI use or other unmeasured confounding factors. PMID:29275337

Are Early-Life Socioeconomic Conditions Directly Related to Birth Outcomes? Grandmaternal Education, Grandchild Birth Weight, and Associated Bias Analyses.

PubMed

Huang, Jonathan Y; Gavin, Amelia R; Richardson, Thomas S; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Siscovick, David S; Enquobahrie, Daniel A

2015-10-01

Grandmaternal education may be related to grandchild birth weight (GBW) through maternal early-life development; however, conventional regression models may be endogenously confounded. Alternative models employing explicit structural assumptions may provide incrementally clearer evidence. We used data from the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1995-2009; 1,681 mother-child pairs) to estimate "direct effects" of grandmaternal educational level (less than high school, high school diploma or equivalent, or college degree) at the time of the mother's birth on GBW, adjusted for maternal life-course factors: maltreatment as a child, education and income as an adult, prepregnancy overweight, and prenatal smoking. Using conventional and marginal structural model (MSM) approaches, we estimated 54-g (95% confidence interval: -14.0, 122.1) and 87-g (95% confidence interval: 10.9, 162.5) higher GBWs per increase in educational level, respectively. The MSM allowed simultaneous mediation by and adjustment for prepregnancy overweight. Estimates were insensitive to alternate structural assumptions and mediator parameterizations. Bias analysis suggested that a single unmeasured confounder would have to have a strong influence on GBW (approximately 150 g) or be greatly imbalanced across exposure groups (approximately 25%) to completely explain the findings. Coupling an MSM with sensitivity analyses provides some evidence that maternal early-life socioeconomic environment is directly associated with offspring birth weight. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Medication Use in Early-HD Participants in Track-HD: an Investigation of its Effects on Clinical Performance.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth; Frost, Chris; Owen, Gail; Daniel, Rhian M; Langbehn, Doug R; Leavitt, Blair; Durr, Alexandra; Roos, Raymund A C; Landwehrmeyer, G Bernhard; Reilmann, Ralf; Borowsky, Beth; Stout, Julie; Craufurd, David; Tabrizi, Sarah J

2016-01-11

 Insufficient evidence exists to guide the long-term pharmacological management of Huntington's disease (HD) although most current interventions rely on symptomatic management. The effect of many frontline treatments on potential endpoints for HD clinical trials remains unknown. Our objective was to investigate how therapies widely used to manage HD affect the symptom for which they are prescribed and other endpoints using data from TRACK-HD. We used longitudinal models to estimate effects of medication use on performance on tests of motor, cognitive and neuropsychiatric function using data from 123 TRACK-HD stage 1/2 participants across four study visits. Adjustment for confounding by prior medication use, prior clinical performance, concomitant use of other medications, and baseline variables (sex, disease group, age, CAG, study site, education) enabled a closer-to-causal interpretation of the associations. Adjusting for baseline variables only, medication use was typically associated with worse clinical performance, reflecting greater medication use in more advanced patients. After additional adjustment for longitudinal confounders such "inverse" associations were generally eliminated and in the expected directions: participants taking neuroleptics tended to have better motor performance, improved affect and poorer cognitive performance, and those taking SSRI/SNRIs had less apathy, less affect and better total behaviour scores. However, we uncovered few statistically significant associations. Limitations include sample size and unmeasured confounding. In conclusion, adjustment for confounding by prior measurements largely eliminated associations between medication use and poorer clinical performance from simple analyses. However, there was little convincing evidence of causal effects of medication on clinical performance and larger cohorts or trials are needed.

Terminal illness and the increased mortality risk of conventional antipsychotics in observational studies: a systematic review.

PubMed

Luijendijk, Hendrika J; de Bruin, Niels C; Hulshof, Tessa A; Koolman, Xander

2016-02-01

Numerous large observational studies have shown an increased risk of mortality in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. Health authorities have warned against use of these drugs. However, terminal illness is a potentially strong confounder of the observational findings. So, the objective of this study was to systematically assess whether terminal illness may have biased the observational association between conventional antipsychotics and risk of mortality in elderly patients. Studies were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, the references of selected studies and articles referring to selected studies (Web of Science). Inclusion criteria were (i) observational studies that estimated (ii) the risk of all-cause mortality in (iii) new elderly users of (iv) conventional antipsychotics compared with atypical antipsychotics or no use. Two investigators assessed the characteristics of the exposure and reference groups, main results, measured confounders and methods used to adjust for unmeasured confounders. We identified 21 studies. All studies were based on administrative medical and pharmaceutical databases. Sicker and older patients received conventional antipsychotics more often than new antipsychotics. The risk of dying was especially high in the first month of use, and when haloperidol was administered per injection or in high doses. Terminal illness was not measured in any study. Instrumental variables that were used were also confounded by terminal illness. We conclude that terminal illness has not been adjusted for in observational studies that reported an increased risk of mortality risk in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. As the validity of the evidence is questionable, so is the warning based on it. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

HEAVY MANUAL WORK THROUGHOUT THE WORKING LIFETIME AND MUSCLE STRENGTH AMONG MEN AT RETIREMENT AGE

PubMed Central

Walker-Bone, K; D’Angelo, S; Syddall, HE; Palmer, KT; Cooper, C; Coggon, D; Sayer, AA

2016-01-01

Introduction Reductions in heavy manual work as a consequence of mechanisation might impact adversely on muscle strength at older ages. We investigated the association between grip strength at retirement age and lifetime occupational exposure to physically demanding activities. Grip strength is an important predictor of long-term health and physical function in older people. Methods Grip strength (maximum of three readings in each hand) was measured in men from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study at a single examination when their mean age was 65.8 (SD 2.9) years. Associations with lifetime occupational exposure (ascertained by questionnaire) to three activities (standing/walking ≥4 hours/day; lifting ≥25 kg; and energetic work sufficient to induce sweating) were assessed by multivariable linear regression with adjustment for various potential confounders. Results Complete data were available from 1,418 men who had worked for at least 20 years. After adjustment for age, height and weight, those with longer exposures to walking/standing and heavy lifting had lower grip strength, but the relationship disappeared after further adjustment for confounders. Working at physical intensity sufficient to induce sweating was not significantly associated with grip strength. Conclusions We found no evidence that physically demanding occupational activities increase hand grip strength at normal retirement age. Any advantages of regular physical occupational activity may have been obscured by unmeasured socio-economic confounders. PMID:26896253

Association between hormone replacement therapy and dementia: is it time to forget?

PubMed

Almeida, Osvaldo P; Flicker, Leon

2005-06-01

The results of in vitro and animal studies provide a strong rationale for the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) to prevent dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). In humans, the results of 16 observational studies are consistent with the hypothesis that estrogen use reduces the risk of AD by 10 to 60%. However, women who are prescribed HRT are less likely to have hypertension, diabetes and history of stroke than nonusers. As all of these factors have been associated with increased risk of dementia (including AD), this "prescription bias" may have a significant impact on the results of observational studies. Randomized trials are designed with the aim of avoiding many of the potential biases and confounding (measured or unmeasured) of observational studies. The results of the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS) indicate that HRT (estrogen plus progestin or estrogen alone) increases the risk of dementia (hazard ratio, HR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.2-2.6). Taking into account the results of the WHIMS and the adverse health events associated with the use of estrogen plus progestin or estrogen alone, we conclude that HRT cannot be recommended as a safe and effective strategy to prevent dementia.

Causal Mediation Analysis for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a Smooth Baseline Hazard Estimator.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Albert, Jeffrey M

2017-08-01

An important problem within the social, behavioral, and health sciences is how to partition an exposure effect (e.g. treatment or risk factor) among specific pathway effects and to quantify the importance of each pathway. Mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework is an important tool to address this problem and we consider the estimation of mediation effects for the proportional hazards model in this paper. We give precise definitions of the total effect, natural indirect effect, and natural direct effect in terms of the survival probability, hazard function, and restricted mean survival time within the standard two-stage mediation framework. To estimate the mediation effects on different scales, we propose a mediation formula approach in which simple parametric models (fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines) are utilized to approximate the baseline log cumulative hazard function. Simulation study results demonstrate low bias of the mediation effect estimators and close-to-nominal coverage probability of the confidence intervals for a wide range of complex hazard shapes. We apply this method to the Jackson Heart Study data and conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact on the mediation effects inference when the no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding assumption is violated.

Birth by Caesarean Section and the Risk of Adult Psychosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

O'Neill, Sinéad M; Curran, Eileen A; Dalman, Christina; Kenny, Louise C; Kearney, Patricia M; Clarke, Gerard; Cryan, John F; Dinan, Timothy G; Khashan, Ali S

2016-05-01

Despite the biological plausibility of an association between obstetric mode of delivery and psychosis in later life, studies to date have been inconclusive. We assessed the association between mode of delivery and later onset of psychosis in the offspring. A population-based cohort including data from the Swedish National Registers was used. All singleton live births between 1982 and 1995 were identified (n= 1,345,210) and followed-up to diagnosis at age 16 or later. Mode of delivery was categorized as: unassisted vaginal delivery (VD), assisted VD, elective Caesarean section (CS) (before onset of labor), and emergency CS (after onset of labor). Outcomes included any psychosis; nonaffective psychoses (including schizophrenia only) and affective psychoses (including bipolar disorder only and depression with psychosis only). Cox regression analysis was used reporting partially and fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sibling-matched Cox regression was performed to adjust for familial confounding factors. In the fully adjusted analyses, elective CS was significantly associated with any psychosis (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03, 1.24). Similar findings were found for nonaffective psychoses (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99, 1.29) and affective psychoses (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05, 1.31) (χ(2)for heterogeneityP= .69). In the sibling-matched Cox regression, this association disappeared (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.78, 1.37). No association was found between assisted VD or emergency CS and psychosis. This study found that elective CS is associated with an increase in offspring psychosis. However, the association did not persist in the sibling-matched analysis, implying the association is likely due to familial confounding by unmeasured factors such as genetics or environment. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

2009-02-06

The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and subsequent alcohol consumption in young people. Inferences about the modest effect sizes found are limited by the potential influence of residual or unmeasured confounding.

Variation in false-positive rates of mammography reading among 1067 radiologists: a population-based assessment.

PubMed

Tan, Alai; Freeman, Daniel H; Goodwin, James S; Freeman, Jean L

2006-12-01

The accuracy of mammography reading varies among radiologists. We conducted a population-based assessment on radiologist variation in false- positive rates of screening mammography and its associated radiologist characteristics. About 27,394 screening mammograms interpreted by 1067 radiologists were identified from a 5% non-cancer sample of Medicare claims during 1998-1999. The data were linked to the American Medical Association Masterfile to obtain radiologist characteristics. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to examine the radiologist variation in false-positive rates of screening mammography and the associated radiologist characteristics. Radiologists varied substantially in the false-positive rates of screening mammography (ranging from 1.5 to 24.1%, adjusting for patient characteristics). A longer time period since graduation is associated with lower false-positive rates (odds ratio [OR] for every 10 years increase: 0.87, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.81-0.94) and female radiologists had higher false-positive rates than male radiologists (OR = 1.25, 95% CI, 1.05-1.49), adjusting for patient and other radiologist characteristics. The unmeasured factors contributed to about 90% of the between-radiologist variance. Radiologists varied greatly in accuracy of mammography reading. Female and more recently trained radiologists had higher false-positive rates. The variation among radiologists was largely due to unmeasured factors, especially unmeasured radiologist factors. If our results are confirmed in further studies, they suggest that system-level interventions would be required to reduce variation in mammography interpretation.

Is long-term exposure to traffic pollution associated with mortality? A small-area study in London.

PubMed

Halonen, Jaana I; Blangiardo, Marta; Toledano, Mireille B; Fecht, Daniela; Gulliver, John; Ghosh, Rebecca; Anderson, H Ross; Beevers, Sean D; Dajnak, David; Kelly, Frank J; Wilkinson, Paul; Tonne, Cathryn

2016-01-01

Long-term exposure to primary traffic pollutants may be harmful for health but few studies have investigated effects on mortality. We examined associations for six primary traffic pollutants with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in 2003-2010 at small-area level using linear and piecewise linear Poisson regression models. In linear models most pollutants showed negative or null association with all-cause, cardiovascular or respiratory mortality. In the piecewise models we observed positive associations in the lowest exposure range (e.g. relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality 1.07 (95% credible interval (CI) = 1.00-1.15) per 0.15 μg/m(3) increase in exhaust related primary particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5)) whereas associations in the highest exposure range were negative (corresponding RR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96). Overall, there was only weak evidence of positive associations with mortality. That we found the strongest positive associations in the lowest exposure group may reflect residual confounding by unmeasured confounders that varies by exposure group. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Interventional effects for mediation analysis with multiple mediators

PubMed Central

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Daniel, Rhian M.

2016-01-01

The mediation formula for the identification of natural (in)direct effects has facilitated mediation analyses that better respect the nature of the data, with greater consideration of the need for confounding control. The default assumptions on which it relies are strong, however. In particular, they are known to be violated when confounders of the mediator–outcome association are affected by the exposure. This complicates extensions of counterfactual-based mediation analysis to settings that involve repeatedly measured mediators, or multiple correlated mediators. VanderWeele, Vansteelandt, and Robins21 introduced so-called interventional (in)direct effects. These can be identified under much weaker conditions than natural (in)direct effects, but have the drawback of not adding up to the total effect. In this article, we adapt their proposal in order to achieve an exact decomposition of the total effect, and extend it to the multiple mediator setting. Interestingly, the proposed effects capture the path-specific effects of an exposure on an outcome that are mediated by distinct mediators, even when – as often – the structural dependence between the multiple mediators is unknown; for instance, when the direction of the causal effects between the mediators is unknown, or there may be unmeasured common causes of the mediators. PMID:27922534

Interventional Effects for Mediation Analysis with Multiple Mediators.

PubMed

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Daniel, Rhian M

2017-03-01

The mediation formula for the identification of natural (in)direct effects has facilitated mediation analyses that better respect the nature of the data, with greater consideration of the need for confounding control. The default assumptions on which it relies are strong, however. In particular, they are known to be violated when confounders of the mediator-outcome association are affected by the exposure. This complicates extensions of counterfactual-based mediation analysis to settings that involve repeatedly measured mediators, or multiple correlated mediators. VanderWeele, Vansteelandt, and Robins introduced so-called interventional (in)direct effects. These can be identified under much weaker conditions than natural (in)direct effects, but have the drawback of not adding up to the total effect. In this article, we adapt their proposal to achieve an exact decomposition of the total effect, and extend it to the multiple mediator setting. Interestingly, the proposed effects capture the path-specific effects of an exposure on an outcome that are mediated by distinct mediators, even when-as often-the structural dependence between the multiple mediators is unknown, for instance, when the direction of the causal effects between the mediators is unknown, or there may be unmeasured common causes of the mediators.

Telomere length and telomerase in a well-characterized sample of individuals with major depressive disorder compared to controls.

PubMed

Simon, Naomi M; Walton, Zandra E; Bui, Eric; Prescott, Jennifer; Hoge, Elizabeth; Keshaviah, Aparna; Schwarz, Noah; Dryman, Taylor; Ojserkis, Rebecca A; Kovachy, Benjamin; Mischoulon, David; Worthington, John; De Vivo, Immaculata; Fava, Maurizio; Wong, Kwok-Kin

2015-08-01

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a marker of cellular turnover and oxidative stress. Studies suggest major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with oxidative stress, but examinations of MDD and LTL have yielded mixed results, likely because of differences in measurement methods and unmeasured confounding. This study examined LTL and telomerase activity in 166 individuals with MDD compared to 166 age- and gender-matched matched controls free of any psychiatric disorder, using well-validated assays and clinical assessment methods, and controlling for a range of potential confounders. Subjects aged 18 to 70 were evaluated by trained raters and provided blood for LTL and telomerase activity measurement. LTL was assayed using Southern blot and replicated with qPCR, and telomerase activity was assayed with a repeat amplification protocol using a commercial kit. There was no significant difference in telomere length for individuals with MDD [mean (SD)=9.1 (3.0)kbp] compared to controls [mean(SD)=8.9(2.5)kbp] measured by Southern blot (p=0.65) or by confirmatory qPCR (p=0.91) assays. Controlling for potential confounders did not alter the results. Telomerase activity did not differ by MDD diagnosis overall (p=0.40), but the effect of MDD was significantly modified by gender (t(299)=2.67, p=0.0079) even after controlling for potential confounders, with telomerase activity significantly greater only in males with MDD versus controls. Our well-characterized, well-powered examination of concurrently assessed telomere length and telomerase activity in individuals with clinically significant, chronic MDD and matched controls failed to provide strong evidence of an association of MDD with shorter LTL, while telomerase activity was higher in men with MDD [corrected]. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using expert opinion to quantify unmeasured confounding bias parameters.

PubMed

Navadeh, Soodabeh; Mirzazadeh, Ali; McFarland, Willi; Woolf-King, Sarah; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-06-27

To develop and apply a method to quantify bias parameters in the case example of the association between alcohol use and HIV-serodiscordant condomless anal sex with potential confounding by sensation seeking among men who have sex with men (MSM), using expert opinion as an external data source. Through an online survey, we sought the input of 41 epidemiologist and behavioural scientists to quantify six parameters in the population of MSM: the proportion of high sensation seeking among heavy-drinking MSM, the proportion of sensation seeking among low-level drinking MSM, and the risk ratio (RR) of the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex, for HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM. Eleven experts responded. For HIV-positive heavy drinkers, the proportion of high sensation seeking was 53.6% (beta distribution [α=5.50, β=4.78]), and 41.1% (beta distribution [α=3.10, β=4.46]) in HIV-negative heavy drinkers. In HIV-positive low-level alcohol drinkers, high sensation seeking was 26.9% (beta distribution [α=1.81, β=4.92]), similar to high sensation seeking among HIV-negative low-level alcohol drinkers (25.3%) (beta distribution [α=2.00, β=5.89]). The lnRR for the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex was ln(2.4) (normal distribution [μ=0.889, σ=0.438]) in HIV-positive and ln(1.5) (normal distribution [μ=0.625, σ=0.391]) in HIV-negative MSM. Expert opinion can be a simple and efficient method for deriving bias parameters to quantify and adjust for hypothesized confounding. In this test case, expert opinion confirmed sensation seeking as a confounder for the effect of alcohol on condomless anal sex and provided the parameters necessary for probabilistic bias analysis.

Volunteering and mortality risk: a partner-controlled quasi-experimental design.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Dermot; Rosato, Michael; Moriarty, John; Leavey, Gerard

2017-08-01

The consensus that volunteering is associated with a lower mortality risk is derived from a body of observational studies and therefore vulnerable to uncontrolled or residual confounding. This potential limitation is likely to be particularly problematic for volunteers who, by definition, are self-selected and known to be significantly different from non-volunteers across a range of factors associated with better survival. This is a census-based record-linkage study of 308 733 married couples aged 25 and over, including 100 571 volunteers, with mortality follow-up for 33 months. We used a standard Cox model to examine whether mortality risk in the partners of volunteers was influenced by partner volunteering status-something expected if the effects of volunteering on mortality risk were due to shared household or behavioural characteristics. Volunteers were general more affluent, better educated and more religious than their non-volunteering peers; they also had a lower mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR)adj = 0.78: 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71, 0.85 for males and HRadj = 0.77: 95% CI = 0.68, 0.88 for females]. However, amongst cohort members who were not volunteers, having a partner who was a volunteer was not associated with a mortality advantage (HRadj = 1.01: 95% CI = 0.92, 1.11 for men and HRadj = 1.00: 95% CI = 0.88, 1.13 women). This study provides further evidence that the lower mortality associated with volunteering is unlikely to be due to health selection or to residual confounding arising from unmeasured selection effects within households. It therefore increases the plausibility of a direct causal effect. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Breast-feeding and overweight in adolescence: within-family analysis [corrected].

PubMed

Gillman, Matthew W; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Berkey, Catherine S; Frazier, A Lindsay; Rockett, Helaine R H; Camargo, Carlos A; Field, Alison E; Colditz, Graham A

2006-01-01

Previous reports have found associations between having been breast-fed and a reduced risk of being overweight. These associations may be confounded by sociocultural determinants of both breast-feeding and obesity. We addressed this possibility by assessing the association of breast-feeding duration with adolescent obesity within sibling sets. We surveyed 5,614 siblings age 9 to 14 years and their mothers. These children were a subset of participants in the Growing Up Today Study, in which we had previously reported an inverse association of breast-feeding duration with overweight. We compared the prevalence of overweight (body mass index exceeding the age-sex-specific 85th percentile) in siblings who were breast-fed longer than the mean duration of their sibship with those who were breast-fed for a shorter period. Then we compared odds ratios from this within-family analysis with odds ratios from an overall (ie, not within-family) analysis. Mean +/- standard deviation breast-feeding duration was 6.4 +/- 4.0 months, and crude prevalence of overweight was 19%. On average, siblings who were breast-fed longer than their family mean had breast-feeding duration 3.7 months longer than their shorter-duration siblings. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for overweight among siblings with longer breast-feeding duration, compared with shorter duration, was 0.92 (95% confidence interval = 0.76-1.11). In overall analyses, the adjusted OR was 0.94 (0.88-1.00) for each 3.7-month increment in breast-feeding duration. The estimated OR for the within-family analysis was close to the overall estimate, suggesting that the apparent protective effect of breast-feeding on later obesity was not highly confounded by unmeasured sociocultural factors. A larger study of siblings, however, would be needed to confirm this conclusion.

Review of methodological challenges in comparing the effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemotherapy versus primary debulking surgery for advanced ovarian cancer in the United States.

PubMed

Cole, Ashley L; Austin, Anna E; Hickson, Ryan P; Dixon, Matthew S; Barber, Emma L

2018-05-11

Randomized trials outside the U.S. have found non-inferior survival for neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) versus primary debulking surgery (PDS) for advanced ovarian cancer (AOC). However, these trials reported lower overall survival and lower rates of optimal debulking than U.S. studies, leading to questions about generalizability to U.S. practice, where aggressive debulking is more common. Consequently, comparative effectiveness in the U.S. remains controversial. We reviewed U.S. comparative effectiveness studies of NACT versus PDS for AOC. Here we describe methodological challenges, compare results to trials outside the U.S., and make suggestions for future research. We identified U.S. studies published in 2010 or later that evaluated the comparative effectiveness of NACT versus PDS on survival in AOC through a PubMed search. Two independent reviewers abstracted data from eligible articles. Nine of 230 articles were eligible for review. Methodological challenges included unmeasured confounders, heterogeneous treatment effects, treatment variations over time, and inconsistent measurement of treatment and survival. Whereas some limitations were unavoidable, several limitations noted across studies were avoidable, including conditioning on mediating factors and immortal time introduced by measuring survival beginning from diagnosis. Without trials in the U.S., non-randomized studies are an important source of evidence for the ideal treatment for AOC. However, several methodological challenges exist when assessing the comparative effectiveness of NACT versus PDS in a non-randomized setting. Future observational studies must ensure that treatment is consistent throughout the study period and that treatment groups are comparable. Rapidly-evolving oncology data networks may allow for identification of treatment intent and other important confounders. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Prospective Investigation of Coffee Drinking and Bladder Cancer Incidence in the United States.

PubMed

Loftfield, Erikka; Freedman, Neal D; Inoue-Choi, Maki; Graubard, Barry I; Sinha, Rashmi

2017-09-01

In 1991, coffee was classified as a group 2B carcinogen, possibly carcinogenic to humans, based on limited epidemiologic evidence of a positive association with bladder cancer. In 2016, the International Agency for Research on Cancer downgraded this classification due to lack of evidence from prospective studies particularly for never smokers. Baseline coffee drinking was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire in the NIH-AARP prospective cohort study. Among 469,047 US adults, who were cancer free at baseline, 6,012 bladder cancer cases (5,088 men and 924 women) were identified during >6.3 million person-years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with non-coffee drinkers as the reference group. Coffee drinking was positively associated with bladder cancer in models adjusted for age and sex (HR for ≥4 cups/d relative to coffee nondrinkers = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.70, 2.14; P trend < 0.0001). However, the association was substantially attenuated after adjustment for cigarette smoking and other potential confounders (HR for ≥4 cups/d relative to coffee nondrinkers = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.33; P trend = 0.0007). Associations were further attenuated after additional adjustment for lifetime smoking patterns among the majority of the cohort with this available data (P trend = 0.16). There was no evidence of an association among never smokers (P trend = 0.84). Positive associations between coffee drinking and bladder cancer among ever smokers but not never smokers suggest that residual confounding from imperfect measurement of smoking or unmeasured risk factors may be an explanation for our positive findings.

Maternal vitamin D status and the risk of mild and severe preeclampsia

PubMed Central

Bodnar, Lisa M.; Simhan, Hyagriv N.; Catov, Janet M.; Roberts, James M.; Platt, Robert W.; Diesel, Jill C.; Klebanoff, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Background We sought to determine the association between maternal vitamin D status at ≤26 weeks gestation and the risk of preeclampsia separately by clinical subtype. Methods We conducted a case-cohort study among women enrolled at 12 U.S. sites from 1959 to 1966 in the Collaborative Perinatal Project. In 717 women who later developed preeclampsia (560 mild and 157 severe cases) and in 2986 mothers without preeclampsia, we measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D at ≤26 weeks gestation (median 20.9 weeks) over 40 years later using liquid-chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Results Half of women in the subcohort had 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. Maternal 25(OH)D 50–<75 nmol/L was associated with a reduction in the absolute and relative risk of preeclampsia and mild preeclampsia compared with 25(OH)D <30 nmol/L, but the effects were no longer present after adjustment for confounders including race, prepregnancy body mass index, and parity. For severe preeclampsia, 25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/L was associated with a reduction of 3 cases per 1,000 pregnancies (adjusted RD −.003, 95% CI: −.005, .0002) and a 40% reduction in risk (adjusted RR .65, 95% CI .43, .98) compared with 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. The conclusions were the same after restricting to women with 25(OH)D measured at <22 weeks gestation and after formal sensitivity analyses for unmeasured confounding. Conclusions Maternal vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for severe preeclampsia, but it is not associated with preeclampsia overall or its mild subtypes. Contemporary cohorts with large numbers of severe preeclampsia cases are needed to confirm or refute these findings. PMID:24457526

Estimates of gains and losses from unmeasured sources and sinks for streamflow and dissolved-solids load in selected reaches of the Arkansas River, southeastern Colorado, 2009-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.

2013-01-01

The Arkansas River is an important municipal water supply and is the primary supply for about 400,000 acres of irrigated land in southeastern Colorado. The suitability of this water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use is affected by high salinity in parts of the Arkansas River. There is a need to quantify mass loading of dissolved solids (DS) in the Arkansas River. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas River Basin Regional Resource Planning Group and the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study to estimate gains and losses from unmeasured sources and sinks for streamflow and DS load in selected reaches of the Arkansas River in southeastern Colorado. Two study reaches were selected for investigation—Canon City to just upstream from Pueblo Reservoir (UARB) and Avondale to Las Animas (LARB). The results from the water-budget analyses indicated that potential areas of unmeasured sources and sinks of streamflow were identifiable in the two study reaches. In the UARB, a substantial volume of water in the subreach from Ark at Canon City to the seasonal gaging station 5 miles downstream (Ark nr Canon City) was unaccounted for by the methodology used in this analysis. The daily gain from unmeasured sources in this subreach was estimated to be about 100 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) or about 20 ft3/s per river mile. Water-budget estimates for the remaining 18 miles of the UARB study reach indicated that gains or losses from unmeasured sources or sinks were within the measurement error as defined for this report. In the LARB, gains and losses from unmeasured sources and sinks were identified in some of the subreaches but the magnitude of the flux generally was small. Unmeasured sources ranging from less than 2 to 3 ft3/s per mile were identified in the river subreaches from Ark at Catlin Dam downstream to Ark at Swink. A streamflow loss was indicated along the subreach from Ark at Nepesta to Ark at Catlin Dam, particularly in 2010. The mechanism and spatial extent of this sink was not identified, and further investigation would be required to better quantify the loss. The results from the analyses of unmeasured sources of DS load indicated that potential source areas were identifiable in the study areas. It might be expected that unmeasured DS load flux would be identified along the same reaches where unmeasured streamflow flux was identified. To that extent, some of the observed results from the analysis of daily DS loading did mirror the streamflow results. In some subreaches of the Arkansas River, however, unmeasured sources and sinks of DS load did not appear to be directly associated with unmeasured sources and sinks of streamflow. In the UARB from Ark at Canon City to Ark nr Canon City, unmeasured gains in DS load were estimated to range from 11 to 22 tons per day per mile in 2009 and from about 8 to 13 tons per day per mile in 2010; streamflow from unmeasured sources was estimated to be about 20 ft3/s per mile along this same reach. Downstream from this short reach, DS load to the river from unmeasured sources was estimated to range from 5.4 to 7.6 tons per day per mile in 2010 for Ark nr Canon City to Ark at Portland and from 11 to 16 tons per day per mile in 2009 for Ark at Portland to Ark nr Portland. Unmeasured gains in streamflow were not identified in either of these subreaches. Several small tributaries with DS concentrations ranging from 3,000 mg/L to as high as 6,000 mg/L enter the river along these subreaches. These inputs may indicate a potential source of groundwater that could affect DS loading in the river. Further investigation would be needed to identify the unmeasured source or sources of DS load to determine the nature and extent of unmeasured inputs. In the LARB, gains in DS load from unmeasured sources were identified for the subreach from Ark nr Avondale to Ark at Nepesta, although no substantial amounts of streamflow from unmeasured sources were identified for this subreach. In 2009, the estimated gain in DS load from unmeasured sources for this subreach was 4.7 tons per day per mile. An increase in DS load from unmeasured sources also was identified along the subreach of the river from Ark at Catlin to Swink; the DS load from unmeasured sources was estimated to range from 10 to 28 tons per day per mile. The only loss of DS load was identified for the subreach from Nepesta to Catlin Dam in 2010. The mechanism and spatial extent of the losses were not identified, and further investigation would be required to better understand the results.

Correcting for Measurement Error in Time-Varying Covariates in Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Kyle, Ryan P; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B; Abrahamowicz, Michał

2016-08-01

Unbiased estimation of causal parameters from marginal structural models (MSMs) requires a fundamental assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Unfortunately, the time-varying covariates used to obtain inverse probability weights are often error-prone. Although substantial measurement error in important confounders is known to undermine control of confounders in conventional unweighted regression models, this issue has received comparatively limited attention in the MSM literature. Here we propose a novel application of the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure to address measurement error in time-varying covariates, and we compare 2 approaches. The direct approach to SIMEX-based correction targets outcome model parameters, while the indirect approach corrects the weights estimated using the exposure model. We assess the performance of the proposed methods in simulations under different clinically plausible assumptions. The simulations demonstrate that measurement errors in time-dependent covariates may induce substantial bias in MSM estimators of causal effects of time-varying exposures, and that both proposed SIMEX approaches yield practically unbiased estimates in scenarios featuring low-to-moderate degrees of error. We illustrate the proposed approach in a simple analysis of the relationship between sustained virological response and liver fibrosis progression among persons infected with hepatitis C virus, while accounting for measurement error in γ-glutamyltransferase, using data collected in the Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study from 2003 to 2014. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Claims-based studies of oral glucose-lowering medications can achieve balance in critical clinical variables only observed in electronic health records.

PubMed

Patorno, Elisabetta; Gopalakrishnan, Chandrasekar; Franklin, Jessica M; Brodovicz, Kimberly G; Masso-Gonzalez, Elvira; Bartels, Dorothee B; Liu, Jun; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2018-04-01

To evaluate the extent to which balance in unmeasured characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) was achieved in claims data, by comparing against more detailed information from linked electronic health records (EHR) data. Within a large US commercial insurance database and using a cohort design, we identified patients with T2DM initiating linagliptin or a comparator agent within class (ie, another dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor) or outside class (ie, pioglitazone or a sulphonylurea) between May 2011 and December 2012. We focused on comparators used at a similar stage of diabetes to linagliptin. For each comparison, 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching was used to balance >100 baseline claims-based characteristics, including proxies of diabetes severity and duration. Additional clinical data from EHR were available for a subset of patients. We assessed representativeness of the claims-EHR-linked subset, evaluated the balance of claims- and EHR-based covariates before and after PS-matching via standardized differences (SDs), and quantified the potential bias associated with observed imbalances. From a claims-based study population of 166 613 patients with T2DM, 7219 (4.3%) patients were linked to their EHR data. Claims-based characteristics in the EHR-linked and EHR-unlinked patients were similar (SD < 0.1), confirming the representativeness of the EHR-linked subset. The balance of claims-based and EHR-based patient characteristics appeared to be reasonable before PS-matching and generally improved in the PS-matched population, to be SD < 0.1 for most patient characteristics and SD < 0.2 for select laboratory results and body mass index categories, which was not large enough to cause meaningful confounding. In the context of pharmacoepidemiological research on diabetes therapy, choosing appropriate comparison groups paired with a new-user design and 1:1 PS matching on many proxies of diabetes severity and duration improves balance in covariates typically unmeasured in administrative claims datasets, to the extent that residual confounding is unlikely. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association of Maternal Psychosocial Stress With Increased Risk of Asthma Development in Offspring

PubMed Central

Magnus, Maria C; Wright, Rosalind J; Røysamb, Espen; Parr, Christine L; Karlstad, Øystein; Page, Christian M; Nafstad, Per; Håberg, Siri E; London, Stephanie J; Nystad, Wenche

2018-01-01

Abstract Prenatal maternal psychosocial stress might influence the development of childhood asthma. Evaluating paternal psychosocial stress and conducting a sibling comparison could provide further insight into the role of unmeasured confounding. We examined the associations of parental psychosocial stress during and after pregnancy with asthma at age 7 years in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (n = 63,626; children born in 2000–2007). Measures of psychosocial stress included lifetime major depressive symptoms, current anxiety/depression symptoms, use of antidepressants, anxiolytics, and/or hypnotics, life satisfaction, relationship satisfaction, work stress, and social support. Childhood asthma was associated with maternal lifetime major depressive symptoms (adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.30), in addition to symptoms of anxiety/depression during pregnancy (aRR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.29) and 6 months after delivery (aRR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.28). Maternal negative life events during pregnancy (aRR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.13) and 6 months after delivery (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.18) were also associated with asthma. These associations were not replicated when evaluated within sibling groups. There were no associations with paternal psychosocial stress. In conclusion, maternal anxiety/depression and negative life events were associated with offspring asthma, but this might be explained by unmeasured maternal background characteristics that remain stable across deliveries. PMID:29244063

Instrumental variable specifications and assumptions for longitudinal analysis of mental health cost offsets.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James

2012-12-01

Instrumental variables (IVs) enable causal estimates in observational studies to be obtained in the presence of unmeasured confounders. In practice, a diverse range of models and IV specifications can be brought to bear on a problem, particularly with longitudinal data where treatment effects can be estimated for various functions of current and past treatment. However, in practice the empirical consequences of different assumptions are seldom examined, despite the fact that IV analyses make strong assumptions that cannot be conclusively tested by the data. In this paper, we consider several longitudinal models and specifications of IVs. Methods are applied to data from a 7-year study of mental health costs of atypical and conventional antipsychotics whose purpose was to evaluate whether the newer and more expensive atypical antipsychotic medications lead to a reduction in overall mental health costs.

Body indices and basic vital signs in Helicobacter pylori positive and negative persons.

PubMed

Kopácová, Marcela; Bures, Jan; Koupil, Ilona; Rejchrt, Stanislav; Vorísek, Viktor; Seifert, Bohumil; Pozler, Oldrich; Zivný, Pavel; Douda, Tomás; Palicka, Vladimír; Holcík, Jan

2007-01-01

It has been hypothesized that Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection may contribute to reduced stature, risk of hypertension or obesity. The aim was to evaluate body indices in Hp positive and negative persons. A total of 2436 subjects (4-100 years old) were tested for Hp status by (13)C-urea breath test. Data on height and weight were collected for 84%, and blood pressure for 80% of the study subjects. The prevalence of Hp infection was 41.6%. The odds ratio for a 10-year increase in age was 1.21 (95% CI 1.17-1.25, p-value <0.001). Statistically significant negative association of Hp positivity with body height was most pronounced in the younger age groups, while a positive association of Hp positivity with body mass index was only seen in those aged 15+ years. There was a negative effect of Hp positivity on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in subjects below 25 and a relatively strong positive effect on blood pressure in subjects over 65 years. Residual confounding by social characteristics as a possible explanation for the associations of Hp positivity with height and blood pressure cannot be excluded. Unmeasured factors related to social and family environment may cause the apparent association between Hp positivity and children's growth and blood pressure.

Why Don't Smart Teens Have Sex? A Behavioral Genetic Approach

PubMed Central

Harden, K. Paige; Mendle, Jane

2011-01-01

Academic achievement and cognitive ability have been shown to predict later age at first sexual intercourse. Using a sample of 536 same-sex twin pairs who were followed longitudinally from adolescence to early adulthood, this study tested whether relations between intelligence, academic achievement and age at first sex were due to unmeasured genetic and environmental differences between families. Twins who differed in their intelligence or their academic achievement did not differ in their age at first sex. Rather, the association between intelligence and age at first sex could be attributed entirely to unmeasured environmental differences between families, whereas the association between academic achievement and age at first sex could be attributed entirely to genetic factors. PMID:21679172

Model Selection Approach Suggests Causal Association between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Theodoratou, Evropi; Farrington, Susan M.; Tenesa, Albert; Dunlop, Malcolm G.; McKeigue, Paul; Campbell, Harry

2013-01-01

Introduction Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders. Methods Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls) and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions. Results Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model), and also for deviance information criteria (DIC) computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores. Conclusion Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations. PMID:23717431

Effectiveness of a coordinated and tailored return-to-work intervention for sickness absence beneficiaries with mental health problems.

PubMed

Martin, Marie H T; Nielsen, Maj Britt D; Madsen, Ida E H; Petersen, Signe M A; Lange, Theis; Rugulies, Reiner

2013-12-01

Sickness absence and exclusion from the labour market due to mental health problems (MHPs) is a growing concern in many countries. Knowledge about effective return-to-work (RTW) intervention models is still limited, but a multidisciplinary, coordinated and tailored approach has shown promising results in the context of musculoskeletal disorders. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of this approach as implemented among sickness absence beneficiaries with MHPs. In a quasi-randomised, controlled trial, we assessed the intervention's effect in terms of time to RTW and labour market status after 1 year. We used two different analytical strategies to compare time to RTW between participants receiving the intervention (n = 88) and those receiving conventional case management (n = 80): (1) a traditional multivariable regression analysis controlling for measured confounding, and (2) an instrumental variable (IV) analysis controlling for unmeasured confounding. The two analytical approaches provided similar results in terms of a longer time to RTW among recipients of the intervention (HR = 0.50; 95 % CI 0.34-0.75), although the estimate provided by the IV-analysis was non-significant (HR = 0.70; 95 % CI 0.23-2.12). After 1 year, more recipients of the intervention than of conventional case management were receiving sickness absence benefits (p = 0.031). The intervention delayed RTW compared to conventional case management, after accounting for measured confounding. The delayed RTW may be due to either implementation or program failure, or both. It may also reflect the complexity of retaining employees with mental health problems in the workplace.

Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. Methods We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Results Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Conclusions Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present. PMID:29088358

Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration.

PubMed

Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

2018-04-01

Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present.

Instrumental variables and Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Hyunseung

Instrumental variables (IV) methods have been widely used to determine the causal effect of a treatment, exposure, policy, or an intervention on an outcome of interest. The IV method relies on having a valid instrument, a variable that is (A1) associated with the exposure, (A2) has no direct effect on the outcome, and (A3) is unrelated to the unmeasured confounders associated with the exposure and the outcome. However, in practice, finding a valid instrument, especially those that satisfy (A2) and (A3), can be challenging. For example, in Mendelian randomization studies where genetic markers are used as instruments, complete knowledge about instruments' validity is equivalent to complete knowledge about the involved genes' functions. The dissertation explores the theory, methods, and application of IV methods when invalid instruments are present. First, when we have multiple candidate instruments, we establish a theoretical bound whereby causal effects are only identified as long as less than 50% of instruments are invalid, without knowing which of the instruments are invalid. We also propose a fast penalized method, called sisVIVE, to estimate the causal effect. We find that sisVIVE outperforms traditional IV methods when invalid instruments are present both in simulation studies as well as in real data analysis. Second, we propose a robust confidence interval under the multiple invalid IV setting. This work is an extension of our work on sisVIVE. However, unlike sisVIVE which is robust to violations of (A2) and (A3), our confidence interval procedure provides honest coverage even if all three assumptions, (A1)-(A3), are violated. Third, we study the single IV setting where the one IV we have may actually be invalid. We propose a nonparametric IV estimation method based on full matching, a technique popular in causal inference for observational data, that leverages observed covariates to make the instrument more valid. We propose an estimator along with inferential results that are robust to mis-specifications of the covariate-outcome model. We also provide a sensitivity analysis should the instrument turn out to be invalid, specifically violate (A3). Fourth, in application work, we study the causal effect of malaria on stunting among children in Ghana. Previous studies on the effect of malaria and stunting were observational and contained various unobserved confounders, most notably nutritional deficiencies. To infer causality, we use the sickle cell genotype, a trait that confers some protection against malaria and was randomly assigned at birth, as an IV and apply our nonparametric IV method. We find that the risk of stunting increases by 0.22 (95% CI: 0.044,1) for every malaria episode and is sensitive to unmeasured confounders.

Partitioning the variability of fasting plasma glucose levels in pedigrees. Genetic and environmental factors.

PubMed

Boehnke, M; Moll, P P; Kottke, B A; Weidman, W H

1987-04-01

Fasting plasma glucose measurements made in 1972-1977 on normoglycemic individuals in three-generation Caucasian pedigrees from Rochester, Minnesota were analyzed. The authors determined the contributions of polygenic loci and environmental factors to fasting plasma glucose variability in these pedigrees. To that end, fasting plasma glucose measurements were normalized by an inverse normal scores transformation and then regressed separately for males and females on measured concomitants including age, body mass index (weight/height2), season of measurement, sex hormone use, and diuretic use. The authors found that 27.7% of the variability in normalized fasting plasma glucose in these pedigrees is explained by these measured concomitants. Subsequent variance components analysis suggested that unmeasured polygenic loci and unmeasured shared environmental factors together account for at least an additional 36.7% of the variability in normalized fasting plasma glucose, with genes alone accounting for at least 27.3%. These results are consistent with the known familiality of diabetes, for which fasting plasma glucose level is an important predictor. Further, these familial factors provide an explanation for at least half the variability in normalized fasting plasma glucose which remains after regression on known concomitants.

Blood Pressure Levels and Mortality Risk among Hemodialysis Patients: Results from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study

PubMed Central

Robinson, Bruce M.; Tong, Lin; Zhang, Jinyao; Wolfe, Robert A.; Goodkin, David A.; Greenwood, Roger N.; Kerr, Peter G.; Morgenstern, Hal; Li, Yun; Pisoni, Ronald L.; Saran, Rajiv; Tentori, Francesca; Akizawa, Tadao; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Port, Friedrich K.

2014-01-01

KDOQI practice guidelines recommend pre-dialysis blood pressure (BP) <140/90 mm Hg. However, most prior hemodialysis studies found elevated mortality with low, not high, systolic blood pressure (SBP), possibly due to unmeasured confounders affecting BP and mortality such as severity of comorbidities. To lessen this bias, we analyzed facility-level BP practices, relating patient-level survival to the fraction of patients in BP categories at each dialysis facility in Cox regression models adjusted for patient and facility characteristics. Analyses included 24,525 patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study. Compared with pre-dialysis SBP 130–159 mm Hg, mortality was 13% higher in facilities with 20% more patients at SBP 110–129 mm Hg and 16% higher in facilities with 20% more patients at SBP ≥160 mm Hg. For patient-level SBP, mortality was elevated at low (<130 mm Hg), not high (up to ≥180 mm Hg) SBP. For pre-dialysis diastolic BP, mortality was lowest at 60–99 mm Hg, a wide range suggesting less chance to improve outcomes. Higher mortality at SBP <130 mm Hg is consistent with prior studies and may be due to excessive BP-lowering during dialysis. The lowest risk facility SBP range of 130–159 mm Hg indicates this range may be optimal, but may have been influenced by unmeasured facility practices. While additional study is needed, the findings contrast with KDOQI BP targets, and provide guidance on optimal BP range in absence of definitive clinical trial data. PMID:22718187

Active-comparator design and new-user design in observational studies

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Kazuki; Solomon, Daniel H.; Kim, Seoyoung C.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Over the past decade, an increasing number of observational studies have examined the effectiveness or safety of rheumatoid arthritis treatments. However, unlike randomized controlled trials (RCTs), observational studies of drug effects face methodological challenges including confounding by indication. Two design principles - active comparator design and new user design can help mitigate such challenges in observational studies. To improve validity of study findings, observational studies should be designed in such a way that makes them more closely approximate RCTs. The active comparator design compares the drug of interest to another commonly used agent for the same indication, rather than a ‘non-user’ group. This principle helps select treatment groups similar in treatment indications (both measured and unmeasured characteristics). The new user design includes a cohort of patients from the time of treatment initiation, so that it can assess patients’ pretreatment characteristics and capture all events occurring anytime during follow-up. PMID:25800216

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

2010-07-01

We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

Understanding bias in relationships between the food environment and diet quality: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

PubMed

Rummo, Pasquale E; Guilkey, David K; Ng, Shu Wen; Meyer, Katie A; Popkin, Barry M; Reis, Jared P; Shikany, James M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2017-12-01

The relationship between food environment exposures and diet behaviours is unclear, possibly because the majority of studies ignore potential residual confounding. We used 20 years (1985-1986, 1992-1993 2005-2006) of data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study across four US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California) and instrumental variables (IV) regression to obtain causal estimates of longitudinal associations between the percentage of neighbourhood food outlets (per total food outlets within 1 km network distance of respondent residence) and an a priori diet quality score, with higher scores indicating higher diet quality. To assess the presence and magnitude of bias related to residual confounding, we compared results from causal models (IV regression) to non-causal models, including ordinary least squares regression, which does not account for residual confounding at all and fixed-effects regression, which only controls for time-invariant unmeasured characteristics. The mean diet quality score across follow-up was 63.4 (SD=12.7). A 10% increase in fast food restaurants (relative to full-service restaurants) was associated with a lower diet quality score over time using IV regression (β=-1.01, 95% CI -1.99 to -0.04); estimates were attenuated using non-causal models. The percentage of neighbourhood convenience and grocery stores (relative to supermarkets) was not associated with diet quality in any model, but estimates from non-causal models were similarly attenuated compared with causal models. Ignoring residual confounding may generate biased estimated effects of neighbourhood food outlets on diet outcomes and may have contributed to weak findings in the food environment literature. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

2009-01-01

Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and subsequent alcohol consumption in young people. Inferences about the modest effect sizes found are limited by the potential influence of residual or unmeasured confounding. PMID:19200352

Intergenerational Transmission of Childhood Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Slutske, Wendy S.; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E.; Paige Harden, K.; Heath, Andrew C.; Madden, Pamela A. F.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2010-01-01

Context The familial nature of childhood conduct problems has been well documented, but few genetically informed studies have explicitly explored the processes through which parental conduct problems influence an offspring’s behavior problems. Objective To delineate the genetic and environmental processes underlying the intergenerational transmission of childhood conduct problems. Design We used hierarchical linear models to analyze data from a Children of Twins Study, a quasiexperimental design, to explore the extent to which genetic factors common to both generations, unmeasured environmental factors that are shared by twins, or measured characteristics of both parents confound the intergenerational association. Setting Participants were recruited from the community and completed a semistructured diagnostic telephone interview. Participants The research used a high-risk sample of twins, their spouses, and their young adult offspring (n=2554) from 889 twin families in the Australian Twin Registry, but the analyses used sample weights to produce parameter estimates for the community-based volunteer sample of twins. Main Outcome Measure Number of conduct disorder symptoms. Results The magnitude of the intergenerational transmission was significant for all offspring, though it was stronger for males (effect size [Cohen d]=0.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.15–0.17) than females (d=0.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.05–0.14). The use of the Children of Twins design and measured covariates indicated that the intergenerational transmission of conduct problems for male offspring was largely mediated by environmental variables specifically related to parental conduct disorder (d=0.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.02–0.23). In contrast, the intergenerational transmission of conduct problems was not because of environmentally mediated causal processes for female offspring (d=−0.09; 95% confidence interval, −0.20 to 0.03); a common genetic liability accounted for the intergenerational relations. Conclusions The mechanisms underlying the inter-generational transmission of conduct problems depend on the sex of the offspring. The results are consistent with an environmentally mediated causal role of parental conduct problems on behavior problems in males. Common genetic risk, however, confounds the entire inter-generational transmission in female offspring. PMID:17606816

Temporal Patterns and Sources of Atmospherically Deposited Pesticides in Alpine Lakes of the Sierra Nevada, California , USA

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne agricultural pesticides are being transported large distances to remote mountain areas, and have been implicated as a cause or contributing factor for recent, dramatic population declines of several amphibian species in such locations. Largely unmeasured, however, are ...

Educational attainment and cigarette smoking: a causal association?†

PubMed Central

Gilman, Stephen E; Martin, Laurie T; Abrams, David B; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura; Loucks, Eric B; Rende, Richard; Rudd, Rima; Buka, Stephen L

2016-01-01

Background Despite abundant evidence that lower education is associated with a higher risk of smoking, whether the association is causal has not been convincingly established. Methods We investigated the association between education and lifetime smoking patterns in a birth cohort established in 1959 and followed through adulthood (n = 1311). We controlled for a wide range of potential confounders that were measured prior to school entry, and also estimated sibling fixed effects models to control for unmeasured familial vulnerability to smoking. Results In the full sample of participants, regression analyses adjusting for multiple childhood factors (including socioeconomic status, IQ, behavioural problems, and medical conditions) indicated that the number of pack-years smoked was higher among individuals with less than high school education [rate ratio (RR) = 1.58, confidence interval (CI) = 1.31, 1.91]. However, in the sibling fixed effects analysis the RR was 1.23 (CI = 0.80, 1.93). Similarly, adjusted models estimated in the full sample showed that individuals with less than high school education had fewer short-term (RR = 0.40; CI = 0.23, 0.69) and long-term (RR = 0.59; CI = 0.42, 0.83) quit attempts, and were less likely to quit smoking (odds ratio = 0.34; CI = 0.19, 0.62). The effects of education on quitting smoking were attenuated in the sibling fixed effects models that controlled for familial vulnerability to smoking. Conclusions A substantial portion of the education differential in smoking that has been repeatedly observed is attributable to factors shared by siblings that contribute to shortened educational careers and to lifetime smoking trajectories. Reducing disparities in cigarette smoking, including educational disparities, may therefore require approaches that focus on factors early in life that influence smoking risk over the adult life span. PMID:18180240

Is lipstick associated with the development of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)?

PubMed Central

Kay, Ashley B.; Fletcher, Jeremiah; Formica, Margaret K.; McAlindon, Timothy E.

2013-01-01

Lipstick use has been hypothesized to be a risk factor of developing systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between lipstick use and risk of SLE. We performed an Internet-based case–control study of SLE with Google™ users searching on medical key terms as the source population. Cases were diagnosed within 5 years and met ≥4 ACR criteria for SLE by medical record review. Controls were matched to cases on age, gender, race, ethnicity, region of residence, reference year, education, and income using propensity score. Demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors were collected using an online questionnaire. Conditional logistic regression models were used for the analyses with smoking, alcohol consumption, permanent hair dye use, and chemical hair straightener use adjusted. The analysis included 124 cases and 248 matched controls of whom 96% were females and 81% were whites. The median of disease duration was 2 years (range 0–4 years). Using lipstick at least 3 days/week was significantly associated with increased risk of SLE (adjusted OR = 1.71, 95%CI = 1.04–2.82). There was a trend of greater risk with earlier age of initiation of lipstick use (<16 years vs. never use; OR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.01–3.76, p trend = 0.02) and with increased frequency of use (7 days/week vs. never use; OR = 1.75, 95%CI = 0.89–3.44, p trend = 0.07). Biologic effects of chemicals present in lipsticks absorbed across the buccal mucosa and confounding from unmeasured lifestyle factors could be the explanation of this association. Epidemiologic studies of SLE should include this exposure in exploring its environmental triggers. PMID:18523821

Is lipstick associated with the development of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)?

PubMed

Wang, Jun; Kay, Ashley B; Fletcher, Jeremiah; Formica, Margaret K; McAlindon, Timothy E

2008-09-01

Lipstick use has been hypothesized to be a risk factor of developing systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between lipstick use and risk of SLE. We performed an Internet-based case-control study of SLE with Google users searching on medical key terms as the source population. Cases were diagnosed within 5 years and met > or =4 ACR criteria for SLE by medical record review. Controls were matched to cases on age, gender, race, ethnicity, region of residence, reference year, education, and income using propensity score. Demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors were collected using an online questionnaire. Conditional logistic regression models were used for the analyses with smoking, alcohol consumption, permanent hair dye use, and chemical hair straightener use adjusted. The analysis included 124 cases and 248 matched controls of whom 96% were females and 81% were whites. The median of disease duration was 2 years (range 0-4 years). Using lipstick at least 3 days/week was significantly associated with increased risk of SLE (adjusted OR = 1.71, 95%CI = 1.04-2.82). There was a trend of greater risk with earlier age of initiation of lipstick use (<16 years vs. never use; OR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.01-3.76, p trend = 0.02) and with increased frequency of use (7 days/week vs. never use; OR = 1.75, 95%CI = 0.89-3.44, p trend = 0.07). Biologic effects of chemicals present in lipsticks absorbed across the buccal mucosa and confounding from unmeasured lifestyle factors could be the explanation of this association. Epidemiologic studies of SLE should include this exposure in exploring its environmental triggers.

Mode of anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery: secondary analysis from the Maternal–Fetal Medicine Units Network Caesarean Registry†‡

PubMed Central

Butwick, A. J.; El-Sayed, Y. Y.; Blumenfeld, Y. J.; Osmundson, S. S.; Weiniger, C. F.

2015-01-01

Background Preterm delivery is often performed by Caesarean section. We investigated modes of anaesthesia and risk factors for general anaesthesia among women undergoing preterm Caesarean delivery. Methods Women undergoing Caesarean delivery between 24+0 and 36+6 weeks' gestation were identified from a multicentre US registry. The mode of anaesthesia was classified as neuraxial anaesthesia (spinal, epidural, or combined spinal and epidural) or general anaesthesia. Logistic regression was used to identify patient characteristic, obstetric, and peripartum risk factors associated with general anaesthesia. Results Within the study cohort, 11 539 women had preterm Caesarean delivery; 9510 (82.4%) underwent neuraxial anaesthesia and 2029 (17.6%) general anaesthesia. In our multivariate model, African-American race [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.7–2.2], Hispanic ethnicity (aOR=1.5; 95% CI=1.2–1.8), other race (aOR=1.4; 95% CI=1.1–1.9), and haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome or eclampsia (aOR=2.8; 95% CI=2.2–3.5) were independently associated with receiving general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. Women with an emergency Caesarean delivery indication had the highest odds for general anaesthesia (aOR=3.5; 95% CI=3.1–3.9). For every 1 week decrease in gestational age at delivery, the adjusted odds of general anaesthesia increased by 13%. Conclusions In our study cohort, nearly one in five women received general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. Although potential confounding by unmeasured factors cannot be excluded, our findings suggest that early gestational age at delivery, emergent Caesarean delivery indications, hypertensive disease, and non-Caucasian race or ethnicity are associated with general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. PMID:25956901

Tolerance to bovine clinical mastitis: Total, direct, and indirect milk losses.

PubMed

Detilleux, J

2018-04-01

The objectives of this paper were to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with mastitis. Indirect losses, linked to indirect tolerance, are mediated by the increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) in response to bacterial infection. Direct losses, linked to weak direct tolerance, are not mediated by the increase in SCC. So far, studies have evaluated milk loss associated with clinical mastitis without considering both components, which may lead to biased estimates of their sum; that is, the total loss in milk. A total of 43,903 test-day records on milk and SCC from 3,716 cows and 5,858 lactations were analyzed with mediation mixed models and health trajectories to estimate the amount of direct, indirect, and total milk losses after adjustment for known and potentially unmeasured (sensitivity analyses) confounding factors. Estimates were formalized under the counterfactual causal theory of causation. In this study, milk losses were mostly mediated by an increase in SCC. They were highest in the first month of lactation, when SCC were highest. Milk losses were estimated at 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 kg/d in first, second, and third and greater parity, respectively. Two phases described how changes in milk were associated with changes in SCC: on average, one occurred before and one after the day preceding the clinical diagnosis. In both phases, changes in milk were estimated at 1 mg/d per 10 3 cells/mL. After adjusting for known confounders, cow effect accounted for 20.7 and 64.2% of the variation in milk in the first and second phases, respectively. This suggests that deviations from the resilient path were highest during the second phase of inflammation and that selection for cows more tolerant to mastitis is feasible. As discussed herein, epigenetic regulation of macrophage polarization may contribute to the variation in milk observed in the second phase. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.

2015-01-01

There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

PubMed

Lubin, Jay H; Muscat, Joshua; Gaudet, Mia M; Olshan, Andrew F; Curado, Maria Paula; Dal Maso, Luigino; Wünsch-Filho, Victor; Sturgis, Erich M; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonilia; Castellsague, Xavier; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Smith, Elaine; Fernandez, Leticia; Matos, Elena; Franceschi, Silvia; Fabianova, Eleonora; Rudnai, Peter; Purdue, Mark P; Mates, Dana; Wei, Qingyi; Herrero, Rolando; Kelsey, Karl; Morgenstern, Hal; Shangina, Oxana; Koifman, Sergio; Lissowska, Jolanta; Levi, Fabio; Daudt, Alexander W; Neto, Jose Eluf; Chen, Chu; Lazarus, Philip; Winn, Deborah M; Schwartz, Stephen M; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Menezes, Ana; La Vecchia, Carlo; McClean, Michael; Talamini, Renato; Rajkumar, Thangarajan; Hayes, Richard B; Hashibe, Mia

2011-09-01

Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. ORs were increased in underweight (< 18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (≥ 25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Natural fluoride in drinking water and myocardial infarction: A cohort study in Sweden.

PubMed

Näsman, Peggy; Granath, Fredrik; Ekstrand, Jan; Ekbom, Anders; Sandborgh-Englund, Gunilla; Fored, C Michael

2016-08-15

Large geographical variation in the coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence is seen worldwide and only a part of this difference is attributed to the classic risk factors. Several environmental factors, such as trace elements in the drinking water have been implicated in the pathogenesis of CHD. The objective was to assess the association between drinking water fluoride exposure and myocardial infarction in Sweden using nationwide registers. This large cohort consisted of 455,619 individuals, born in Sweden between January 1, 1900 and December 31, 1919, alive and living in their municipality of birth at the time of start of follow-up. Estimated individual drinking water fluoride exposure was stratified into four categories: very low (<0.3mg/l), low (0.3-<0.7mg/l), medium (0.7-<1.5mg/l) and high (≥1.5mg/l). In Cox regression analyses, compared to the very low fluoride group, the adjusted Hazard Ratio for the low fluoride group was 0.99 (95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.00), for the medium fluoride group 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.03) and 0.98 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.01) for the highest fluoride group. Adding water hardness to the model did not change the results. We conclude that the investigated levels of natural drinking water fluoride content does not appear to be associated with myocardial infarction, nor related to the geographic myocardial infarction risk variation in Sweden. Potential misclassification of exposure and unmeasured confounding may have influenced the results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An overview of confounding. Part 2: how to identify it and special situations.

PubMed

Howards, Penelope P

2018-04-01

Confounding biases study results when the effect of the exposure on the outcome mixes with the effects of other risk and protective factors for the outcome that are present differentially by exposure status. However, not all differences between the exposed and unexposed group cause confounding. Thus, sources of confounding must be identified before they can be addressed. Confounding is absent in an ideal study where all of the population of interest is exposed in one universe and is unexposed in a parallel universe. In an actual study, an observed unexposed population represents the unobserved parallel universe. Thinking about differences between this substitute population and the unexposed parallel universe helps identify sources of confounding. These differences can then be represented in a diagram that shows how risk and protective factors for the outcome are related to the exposure. Sources of confounding identified in the diagram should be addressed analytically and through study design. However, treating all factors that differ by exposure status as confounders without considering the structure of their relation to the exposure can introduce bias. For example, conditions affected by the exposure are not confounders. There are also special types of confounding, such as time-varying confounding and unfixable confounding. It is important to evaluate carefully whether factors of interest contribute to confounding because bias can be introduced both by ignoring potential confounders and by adjusting for factors that are not confounders. The resulting bias can result in misleading conclusions about the effect of the exposure of interest on the outcome. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Sugary soda consumption and albuminuria: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2004.

PubMed

Shoham, David A; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Kramer, Holly; Luke, Amy; Vupputuri, Suma; Kshirsagar, Abhijit; Cooper, Richard S

2008-01-01

End-stage renal disease rates rose following widespread introduction of high fructose corn syrup in the American diet, supporting speculation that fructose harms the kidney. Sugar-sweetened soda is a primary source of fructose. We therefore hypothesized that sugary soda consumption was associated with albuminuria, a sensitive marker for kidney disease. Design was a cross-sectional analysis. Data were drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. The setting was a representative United States population sample. Participants included adults 20 years and older with no history of diabetes mellitus (n = 12,601); after exclusions for missing outcome and covariate information (n = 3,243), the analysis dataset consisted of 9,358 subjects. Exposure was consumption of two or more sugary soft drinks, based on 24-hour dietary recall. The main outcome measure was Albuminuria, defined by albumin to creatinine ratio cutpoints of >17 mg/g (males) and >25 mg/g (females). Logistic regression adjusted for confounders (diet soda, age, race-ethnicity, gender, poverty). Interactions between age, race-ethnicity, gender, and overweight-obesity were explored. Further analysis adjusted for potential mediators: energy intake, basal metabolic rate, obesity, hypertension, lipids, serum uric acid, smoking, energy expenditure, and glycohemoglobin. Alternative soda intake definitions and cola consumption were employed. Weighted albuminuria prevalence was 11%, and 17% consumed 2+ sugary soft drinks/day. The confounder-adjusted odds ratio for sugary soda was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.74). Associations were modified by gender (p = 0.008) and overweight-obesity (p = 0.014). Among women, the OR was 1.86 (95% CI: 1.37, 2.53); the OR among males was not significant. In the group with body mass under 25 kg/m(2), OR = 2.15 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 3.25). Adjustment for potential mediators and use of alternative definitions of albuminuria and soda consumption did not appreciably change results. Diet sodas were not associated with albuminuria. Findings suggest that sugary soda consumption may be associated with kidney damage, although moderate consumption of 1 or fewer sodas does not appear to be harmful. Additional studies are needed to assess whether HFCS itself, overall excess intake of sugar, or unmeasured lifestyle and confounding factors are responsible.

Examining the Education Gradient in Chronic Illness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chatterji, Pinka; Joo, Heesoo; Lahiri, Kajal

2015-01-01

We examine the education gradient in diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol. We take into account diagnosed as well as undiagnosed cases and use methods accounting for the possibility of unmeasured factors that are correlated with education and drive both the likelihood of having illness and the propensity to be diagnosed. Data come from the…

Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: correlated errors.

PubMed

Marshall, J R; Hastrup, J L; Ross, J S

1999-07-01

Confounding in epidemiology, and the limits of standard methods of control for an imperfectly measured confounder, have been understood for some time. However, most treatments of this problem are based on the assumption that errors of measurement in confounding and confounded variables are independent. This paper considers the situation in which a strong risk factor (confounder) and an inconsequential but suspected risk factor (confounded) are each measured with errors that are correlated; the situation appears especially likely to occur in the field of nutritional epidemiology. Error correlation appears to add little to measurement error as a source of bias in estimating the impact of a strong risk factor: it can add to, diminish, or reverse the bias induced by measurement error in estimating the impact of the inconsequential risk factor. Correlation of measurement errors can add to the difficulty involved in evaluating structures in which confounding and measurement error are present. In its presence, observed correlations among risk factors can be greater than, less than, or even opposite to the true correlations. Interpretation of multivariate epidemiologic structures in which confounding is likely requires evaluation of measurement error structures, including correlations among measurement errors.

Quantifying environmental limiting factors on tree cover using geospatial data.

PubMed

Greenberg, Jonathan A; Santos, Maria J; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Vanderbilt, Vern C; Ustin, Susan L

2015-01-01

Environmental limiting factors (ELFs) are the thresholds that determine the maximum or minimum biological response for a given suite of environmental conditions. We asked the following questions: 1) Can we detect ELFs on percent tree cover across the eastern slopes of the Lake Tahoe Basin, NV? 2) How are the ELFs distributed spatially? 3) To what extent are unmeasured environmental factors limiting tree cover? ELFs are difficult to quantify as they require significant sample sizes. We addressed this by using geospatial data over a relatively large spatial extent, where the wall-to-wall sampling ensures the inclusion of rare data points which define the minimum or maximum response to environmental factors. We tested mean temperature, minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and PET minus precipitation (PET-P) as potential limiting factors on percent tree cover. We found that the study area showed system-wide limitations on tree cover, and each of the factors showed evidence of being limiting on tree cover. However, only 1.2% of the total area appeared to be limited by the four (4) environmental factors, suggesting other unmeasured factors are limiting much of the tree cover in the study area. Where sites were near their theoretical maximum, non-forest sites (tree cover < 25%) were primarily limited by cold mean temperatures, open-canopy forest sites (tree cover between 25% and 60%) were primarily limited by evaporative demand, and closed-canopy forests were not limited by any particular environmental factor. The detection of ELFs is necessary in order to fully understand the width of limitations that species experience within their geographic range.

Mid-to-long term mortality following surgical versus percutaneous coronary revascularization stratified according to stent subtype: An analysis of 6,682 patients with multivessel disease

PubMed Central

Raja, Shahzad G.; Ilsley, Charles; De Robertis, Fabio; Lane, Rebecca; Kabir, Tito; Bahrami, Toufan; Simon, Andre; Popov, Aron; Dalby, Miles C.; Mason, Mark; Grocott-Mason, Richard; Smith, Robert D.

2018-01-01

Background Studies comparing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have largely been performed in the bare-metal stent (BMS) and first-generation drug eluting stent (F-DES) era. Second-generation DES (S-DES) have shown improved outcomes when compared to F-DES, but data comparing CABG with PCI using S-DES is limited. We compared mortality following CABG versus PCI for patients with multivessel disease and analyzed different stent types. Methods A total of 6,682 patients underwent multivessel revascularization at Harefield Hospital, UK. We stratified CABG patients into single arterial graft (SAG) or multiple arterial grafts (MAG); and PCI patients into BMS, F-DES or S-DES groups. We analyzed all-cause mortality at 5 years. Results 4,388 patients had CABG (n[SAG] = 3,358; n[MAG] = 1,030) and 2,294 patients had PCI (n[BMS] = 416; n[F-DES] = 752; n[S-DES] = 1,126). PCI had higher 5-year mortality with BMS (HR = 2.27, 95% CI:1.70–3.05, p<0.001); F-DES (HR = 1.52, 95% CI:1.14–2.01, p = 0.003); and S-DES (HR = 1.84, 95% CI:1.42–2.38, p<0.001). This was confirmed in inverse probability treatment weighted analyses. When adjusting for both measured and unmeasured factors using instrumental variable analyses, PCI had higher 5-year mortality with BMS (Δ = 15.5, 95% CI:3.6,27.5, p = 0.011) and FDES (Δ = 16.5, 95% CI:6.6,26.4, p<0.001), but had comparable mortality with CABG for PCI with SDES (Δ = 0.9, 95% CI: -9.6,7.9, p = 0.844), and when exclusively compared to CABG patients with SAG (Δ = 0.4, 95% CI: -8.0,8.7, p = 0.931) or MAG (Δ = 4.6, 95% CI: -0.4,9.6, p = 0.931). Conclusions In this real-world analysis, when adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounding, PCI with SDES had comparable 5-year mortality when compared to CABG. This warrants evaluation in adequately-powered randomized controlled trials. PMID:29408926

Meta-Analyses of Seven of NIDA’s Principles of Drug Addiction Treatment

PubMed Central

Pearson, Frank S.; Prendergast, Michael L.; Podus, Deborah; Vazan, Peter; Greenwell, Lisa; Hamilton, Zachary

2011-01-01

Seven of the 13 Principles of Drug Addiction Treatment disseminated by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) were meta-analyzed as part of the Evidence-based Principles of Treatment (EPT) project. By averaging outcomes over the diverse programs included in EPT, we found that five of the NIDA principles examined are supported: matching treatment to the client’s needs; attending to the multiple needs of clients; behavioral counseling interventions; treatment plan reassessment; and counseling to reduce risk of HIV. Two of the NIDA principles are not supported: remaining in treatment for an adequate period of time and frequency of testing for drug use. These weak effects could be the result of the principles being stated too generally to apply to the diverse interventions and programs that exist or of unmeasured moderator variables being confounded with the moderators that measured the principles. Meta-analysis should be a standard tool for developing principles of effective treatment for substance use disorders. PMID:22119178

Meta-analyses of seven of the National Institute on Drug Abuse's principles of drug addiction treatment.

PubMed

Pearson, Frank S; Prendergast, Michael L; Podus, Deborah; Vazan, Peter; Greenwell, Lisa; Hamilton, Zachary

2012-07-01

Of the 13 principles of drug addiction treatment disseminated by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), 7 were meta-analyzed as part of the Evidence-based Principles of Treatment (EPT) project. By averaging outcomes over the diverse programs included in the EPT, we found that 5 of the NIDA principles examined are supported: matching treatment to the client's needs, attending to the multiple needs of clients, behavioral counseling interventions, treatment plan reassessment, and counseling to reduce risk of HIV. Two of the NIDA principles are not supported: remaining in treatment for an adequate period and frequency of testing for drug use. These weak effects could be the result of the principles being stated too generally to apply to the diverse interventions and programs that exist or unmeasured moderator variables being confounded with the moderators that measured the principles. Meta-analysis should be a standard tool for developing principles of effective treatment for substance use disorders. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Causal Effects with Ancestral Graph Markov Models

PubMed Central

Malinsky, Daniel; Spirtes, Peter

2017-01-01

We present an algorithm for estimating bounds on causal effects from observational data which combines graphical model search with simple linear regression. We assume that the underlying system can be represented by a linear structural equation model with no feedback, and we allow for the possibility of latent variables. Under assumptions standard in the causal search literature, we use conditional independence constraints to search for an equivalence class of ancestral graphs. Then, for each model in the equivalence class, we perform the appropriate regression (using causal structure information to determine which covariates to include in the regression) to estimate a set of possible causal effects. Our approach is based on the “IDA” procedure of Maathuis et al. (2009), which assumes that all relevant variables have been measured (i.e., no unmeasured confounders). We generalize their work by relaxing this assumption, which is often violated in applied contexts. We validate the performance of our algorithm on simulated data and demonstrate improved precision over IDA when latent variables are present. PMID:28217244

Unlocking the forest inventory data: relating individual tree performance to unmeasured environmental factors

Treesearch

Jeremy W. Lichstein; Jonathan Dushoff; Kiona Ogle; Anping Chen; Drew W. Purves; John P. Caspersen; Stephen W. Pacala

2010-01-01

Geographically extensive forest inventories, such as the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, contain millions of individual tree growth and mortality records that could be used to develop broad-scale models of forest dynamics. A limitation of inventory data, however, is that individual-level measurements of light (L) and other...

Do Measured and Unmeasured Family Factors Bias the Association between Education and Self-Assessed Health?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monden, Christiaan W. S.

2010-01-01

The association between educational attainment and self-assessed health is well established but the mechanisms that explain this association are not fully understood yet. It is likely that part of the association is spurious because (genetic and non-genetic) characteristics of a person's family of origin simultaneously affect one's educational…

Association of Genetic Ancestry with Breast Cancer in Ethnically Diverse Women from Chicago

PubMed Central

Al-Alem, Umaima; Rauscher, Garth; Shah, Ebony; Batai, Ken; Mahmoud, Abeer; Beisner, Erin; Silva, Abigail; Peterson, Caryn; Kittles, Rick

2014-01-01

Introduction Non-Hispanic (nH) Black and Hispanic women are disproportionately affected by early onset disease, later stage, and with more aggressive, higher grade and ER/PR negative breast cancers. The purpose of this analysis was to examine whether genetic ancestry could account for these variation in breast cancer characteristics, once data were stratified by self-reported race/ethnicity and adjusted for potential confounding by social and behavioral factors. Methods We used a panel of 100 ancestry informative markers (AIMs) to estimate individual genetic ancestry in 656 women from the “Breast Cancer Care in Chicago” study, a multi-ethnic cohort of breast cancer patients to examine the association between individual genetic ancestry and breast cancer characteristics. In addition we examined the association of individual AIMs and breast cancer to identify genes/regions that may potentially play a role in breast cancer disease disparities. Results As expected, nH Black and Hispanic patients were more likely than nH White patients to be diagnosed at later stages, with higher grade, and with ER/PR negative tumors. Higher European genetic ancestry was protective against later stage at diagnosis (OR 0.7 95%CI: 0.54–0.92) among Hispanic patients, and higher grade (OR 0.73, 95%CI: 0.56–0.95) among nH Black patients. After adjustment for multiple social and behavioral risk factors, the association with later stage remained, while the association with grade was not significant. We also found that the AIM SNP rs10954631 on chromosome 7 was associated with later stage (p = 0.02) and higher grade (p = 0.012) in nH Whites and later stage (p = 0.03) in nH Blacks. Conclusion Non-European genetic ancestry was associated with later stage at diagnosis in ethnic minorities. The relation between genetic ancestry and stage at diagnosis may be due to genetic factors and/or unmeasured environmental factors that are overrepresented within certain racial/ethnic groups. PMID:25423363

Pre-Bombing Population Density in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Its Measurement and Impact on Radiation Risk Estimates in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors.

PubMed

French, Benjamin; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Cologne, John; Cullings, Harry M; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Preston, Dale L

2018-03-29

In the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, differences in urbanicity between high-dose and low-dose survivors could confound the association between radiation dose and adverse outcomes. We obtained data on the pre-bombing population distribution in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and quantified the impact of adjustment for population density on radiation risk estimates for mortality (1950-2003) and incident solid cancer (1958-2009). Population density ranged from 4,671-14,378 and 5,748-19,149 people/km2 in urban regions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. Radiation risk estimates for solid cancer mortality were attenuated by 5.1%, but those for all-cause mortality and incident solid cancer were unchanged. There was no overall association between population density and adverse outcomes, but there was evidence that the association between density and mortality differed by age at exposure. Among survivors 10-14 years old in 1945, there was a positive association between population density and risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.053 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.027, 1.079) and solid cancer mortality (relative risk, 1.069 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.025, 1.115). Our results suggest that radiation risk estimates from the Life Span Study are not sensitive to unmeasured confounding by urban-rural differences.

Offspring Outcomes in Studies of Antidepressant-Treated Pregnancies Depend on the Choice of Control Group.

PubMed

Andrade, Chittaranjan

2017-03-01

Antenatal depression complicates 14%-23% of pregnancies; if the depression is left untreated, there is an increased risk of a wide range of adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. However, antidepressant use, and, more specifically, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use, has also been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Regrettably, SSRIs have received bad press in this context even though the evidence linking them with the adverse outcomes has not disentangled depression effects from drug effects. The most important reason why depression and drug effects cannot be separated is that the evidence is derived mostly from retrospective observational studies and not from randomized controlled trials, which are necessary but which cannot be performed during pregnancy for ethical and practical reasons. In these observational studies, the control groups are formed from healthy women, depressed women, and/or propensity score-matched women who did not receive antidepressant drugs during pregnancy. A limitation of such control groups is that they cannot control for confounding arising from poorly measured, unmeasured, or unknown variables that influence the pregnancy outcomes being assessed. This article discusses problems involved in such research and illustrates how, when confounding is diminished by using sibling controls discordant for antidepressant exposure during pregnancy, the risks of adverse outcomes associated with antidepressant exposure diminish. However, a discordant sibling control group is associated with its own limitations, and these are also discussed. © Copyright 2017 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Questioning the causal link between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring use of psychotropic medication: a sibling design analysis.

PubMed

Söderström, Lovisa; Perez-Vicente, Raquel; Juárez, Sol; Merlo, Juan

2013-01-01

A recent population-based, longitudinal study from Finland observed a dose-response association between smoking during pregnancy (SDP) and use of psychotropic medications in exposed children and young adults. However, this association may be confounded by unmeasured familial characteristics related to both SDP and offspring mental health. Consequently, we aim to investigate the effect of SDP by means of a sibling design that to some extent allows controlling for unknown environmental and genetic confounders. Using the Swedish Medical Birth Register (1987-1993), which was linked to the Swedish Prescribed Drugs Register (July 2005-December 2008), we investigated 579,543 children and among them 39, 007 were discordant for use of psychotropic medication and 4,021 siblings discordant for both use of psychotropic medication and for smoking exposure. Replicating the Finnish study using traditional logistic regression methods we found an association between exposure to ≥10 cigarettes per day during pregnancy and psychotropic drug use (odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.56, 1.66). Similar in size to the association reported from Finland (odds ratio = 1.63; 95% confidence interval 1.53, 1.74). However, in the adjusted sibling analysis using conditional logistic regression, the association was considerably reduced (odds ratio 1.22; 95% confidence interval 1.08, 1.38). Preventing smoking is of major public health importance. However, SDP per se appears to have less influence on offspring psychotropic drug use than previously suggested.

The interpersonally sensitive disposition and health: an integrative review.

PubMed

Marin, Teresa J; Miller, Gregory E

2013-09-01

This article reviews studies that have examined the association between constructs related to interpersonal sensitivity (IS) and morbidity and mortality from major medical illnesses. We define IS as a stable trait characterized by ongoing concerns about negative social evaluation. This disposition makes people vigilant for as well as sensitive to others' evaluations of them. To avoid negative social evaluation, they adopt defensive behaviors such as submission and inhibition. Aspects of IS are captured by various constructs, including introversion, rejection sensitivity, social inhibition, social anxiety, and submissiveness. The review includes 76 long-term prospective studies across 4 outcome categories, namely, infectious disease, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. Three general conclusions are established. First, IS individuals are at increased risk of infectious diseases and possibly CVD, but not cancer and not all-cause mortality. Second, the positive studies provide evidence that IS temporally precedes disease, and go a long way toward ruling out the most plausible alternative explanations based on confounders, supporting a tentative causal interpretation of the data. However, unmeasured potential confounders make it impossible to be certain about whether IS drives the effects on mortality and morbidity. Third, the effects of introversion are accentuated and may only become apparent in contexts that activate social-evaluative concerns (e.g., exposure to early life residential mobility, living with the stigma of human immunodeficiency virus). Findings are discussed in regard to potential psychosocial and psychobiological mechanisms as well as implications for future work concerning IS and health. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Association between Maternal Smoking, Childhood Obesity, and Metabolic Disorders: A National Toxicology Program Workshop Review

PubMed Central

Behl, Mamta; Rao, Deepa; Aagaard, Kjersti; Davidson, Terry L.; Levin, Edward D.; Slotkin, Theodore A.; Srinivasan, Supriya; Wallinga, David; White, Morris F.; Walker, Vickie R.; Thayer, Kristina A.

2012-01-01

Background: An emerging literature suggests that environmental chemicals may play a role in the development of childhood obesity and metabolic disorders, especially when exposure occurs early in life. Objective: Here we assess the association between these health outcomes and exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy as part of a broader effort to develop a research agenda to better understand the role of environmental chemicals as potential risk factors for obesity and metabolic disorders. Methods: PubMed was searched up to 8 March 2012 for epidemiological and experimental animal studies related to maternal smoking or nicotine exposure during pregnancy and childhood obesity or metabolic disorders at any age. A total of 101 studies—83 in humans and 18 in animals—were identified as the primary literature. Discussion: Current epidemiological data support a positive association between maternal smoking and increased risk of obesity or overweight in offspring. The data strongly suggest a causal relation, although the possibility that the association is attributable to unmeasured residual confounding cannot be completely ruled out. This conclusion is supported by findings from laboratory animals exposed to nicotine during development. The existing literature on human exposures does not support an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and type 1 diabetes in offspring. Too few human studies have assessed outcomes related to type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome to reach conclusions based on patterns of findings. There may be a number of mechanistic pathways important for the development of aberrant metabolic outcomes following perinatal exposure to cigarette smoke, which remain largely unexplored. Conclusions: From a toxicological perspective, the linkages between maternal smoking during pregnancy and childhood overweight/obesity provide proof-of-concept of how early-life exposure to an environmental toxicant can be a risk factor for childhood obesity. PMID:23232494

European ancestry is positively associated with breast cancer risk in Mexican women

PubMed Central

Fejerman, Laura; Romieu, Isabelle; John, Esther M.; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Huntsman, Scott; Beckman, Kenneth B.; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J.; Burchard, Esteban Gonzalez; Ziv, Elad; Torres-Mejía, Gabriela

2010-01-01

The incidence of breast cancer is 35% lower in Hispanic women living in the San Francisco Bay Area than in non-Hispanic white women. We have previously described a significant association between genetic ancestry and risk of breast cancer in a sample of US Hispanics/Latinas. We re-tested the association in women residing in Mexico because of the possibility that the original finding may be confounded by US specific unmeasured environmental exposures. We genotyped a set of 106 ancestry informative markers (AIMs) in 846 Mexican women with breast cancer and 1,035 unaffected controls and estimated genetic ancestry using a maximum likelihood method. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ancestry modeled as a categorical and continuous variable were estimated using logistic regression and adjusted for reproductive and other known risk factors. Greater European ancestry was associated with increased breast cancer risk in this new and independent sample of Mexican women residing in Mexico. Compared to women with 0-25% European ancestry, the risk was increased for women with 51-75% and 76-100% European ancestry (OR=1.35, 95% CI: 0.96-1.91 and 2.44, 95% CI: 0.94-6.35 respectively, p for trend=0.044). For every 25% increase in European ancestry (modeled as a continuous variable) there was a 20% increase in risk of breast cancer (95% CI: 1.03-1.41, p=0.019). These results suggest that non-genetic factors play a crucial role in explaining the difference in breast cancer incidence between Latinas and non-Latina white women and it also points out to the possibility of a genetic component to this difference. PMID:20332279

Re-evaluation of link between interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes: retrospective cohort study matching two intervals per mother

PubMed Central

Pereira, Gavin; Jacoby, Peter; de Klerk, Nicholas; Stanley, Fiona J

2014-01-01

Objective To re-evaluate the causal effect of interpregnancy interval on adverse birth outcomes, on the basis that previous studies relying on between mother comparisons may have inadequately adjusted for confounding by maternal risk factors. Design Retrospective cohort study using conditional logistic regression (matching two intervals per mother so each mother acts as her own control) to model the incidence of adverse birth outcomes as a function of interpregnancy interval; additional unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for confounders enabled comparison with the unmatched design of previous studies. Setting Perth, Western Australia, 1980-2010. Participants 40 441 mothers who each delivered three liveborn singleton neonates. Main outcome measures Preterm birth (<37 weeks), small for gestational age birth (<10th centile of birth weight by sex and gestational age), and low birth weight (<2500 g). Results Within mother analysis of interpregnancy intervals indicated a much weaker effect of short intervals on the odds of preterm birth and low birth weight compared with estimates generated using a traditional between mother analysis. The traditional unmatched design estimated an adjusted odds ratio for an interpregnancy interval of 0-5 months (relative to the reference category of 18-23 months) of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.51) for preterm birth, 1.26 (1.15 to 1.37) for low birth weight, and 0.98 (0.92 to 1.06) for small for gestational age birth. In comparison, the matched design showed a much weaker effect of short interpregnancy interval on preterm birth (odds ratio 1.07, 0.86 to 1.34) and low birth weight (1.03, 0.79 to 1.34), and the effect for small for gestational age birth remained small (1.08, 0.87 to 1.34). Both the unmatched and matched models estimated a high odds of small for gestational age birth and low birth weight for long interpregnancy intervals (longer than 59 months), but the estimated effect of long interpregnancy intervals on the odds of preterm birth was much weaker in the matched model than in the unmatched model. Conclusion This study questions the causal effect of short interpregnancy intervals on adverse birth outcomes and points to the possibility of unmeasured or inadequately specified maternal factors in previous studies. PMID:25056260

A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia.

PubMed

Chen, Mengni; Lloyd, Chris J; Yip, Paul S F

2018-01-01

A country's total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup's potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies.

Severe hypertriglyceridemia does not protect from ischemic brain injury in gene-modified hypertriglyceridemic mice.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Liu, Ping; Qi, Rong; Wang, Yu-Hui; Liu, George; Wang, Chun

2016-05-15

Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) is a weak risk factor in primary ischemic stroke prevention. However, clinical studies have found a counterintuitive association between a good prognosis after ischemic stroke and HTG. This "HTG paradox" requires confirmation and further explanation. The aim of this study was to experimentally assess this paradox relationship using the gene-modified mice model of extreme HTG. We first used the human Apolipoprotein CIII transgenic (Tg-ApoCIII) mice and non-transgenic (Non-Tg) littermates to examine the effect of HTG on stroke. To our surprise, infarct size, neurological deficits, brain edema, BBB permeability, neuron density and lipid peroxidation were the same in Tg-ApoCIII mice and Non-Tg mice after temporary middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO). In the late phase (21 days after surgery), no differences were found in brain atrophy, neurological dysfunctions, weight and mortality between the two groups. To confirm the results in Tg-ApoCIII mice, Glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored high-density lipoprotein-binding protein 1(GPIHBP1) knockout mice, another severe HTG mouse model, were used and yielded similar results. Our study demonstrates for the first time that extreme HTG does not affect ischemic brain injuries in the tMCAO mouse model, indicating that the association between HTG and good outcomes after ischemic stroke probably represents residual unmeasured confounding. Further clinical and prospective population-based studies are needed to explore variables that contribute to the paradox. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Common Immune-Related Exposures/Conditions and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Case-Control Study of Disease-Discordant Twin Pairs

PubMed Central

Wang, Jun; Mack, Thomas M.; Hamilton, Ann S.; Hwang, Amie E.; Nathwani, Bharat N.; Masood, Kamil; Buchanan, Laura H.; Bernstein, Leslie; Deapen, Dennis M.; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Cozen, Wendy

2015-01-01

We evaluated the association between common immune system–altering experiences and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk using a case-control study of 162 like-sex twin pairs discordant for NHL, identified from the International Twin Study. Information on medical history and evidence of childhood exposure to microbes was obtained by questionnaire from 1998 to 2002. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Intra-twin-pair agreement between twins on individual exposures was high (76%–97%). A negative association between NHL and seasonal hay fever (odds ratio (OR) = 0.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10, 0.75) and certain allergies (OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.68) was observed. The number of atopic diseases was negatively associated with NHL (P for trend = 0.0003). A history of infectious mononucleosis was negatively associated with NHL risk (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.90). NHL risk was associated with more frequent childhood exposure to microbes during early life (P for trend = 0.04). No differences in association by NHL subtype were observed, although statistical power for these comparisons was low. These observations support the hypothesis that immune-related exposures, especially atopy, are associated with decreased NHL risk. Use of the within-twin-pair study design mitigates confounding by genome, family structure, and unmeasured characteristics of early childhood factors. PMID:26271116

Negative Capability? Measuring the Unmeasurable in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unterhalter, Elaine

2017-01-01

This introductory article to the special issue of "Comparative Education" on measuring the unmeasurable in education considers measurement as reflecting facts and uncertainties. The notion of negative capability is used metaphorically to depict some limits of what is measurable, and portray aspects of the process of education, associated…

A Children of Twins Study of parental divorce and offspring psychopathology.

PubMed

D'Onofrio, Brian M; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E; Maes, Hermine H; Silberg, Judy; Eaves, Lindon J

2007-07-01

Although parental divorce is associated with increased substance use and internalizing problems, experiencing the separation of one's parents may not cause these outcomes. The relations may be due to genetic or environmental selection factors, characteristics that lead to both marital separation and offspring functioning. We used the Children of Twins (CoT) Design to explore whether unmeasured genetic or environmental factors related to the twin parent, and measured characteristics of both parents, account for the association between parental divorce and offspring substance use and internalizing problems. The association between parental divorce and offspring substance use problems remained robust when controlling for genetic and environmental risk from the twin parent associated with parental divorce, and measured characteristics of both parents. The results do not prove, but are consistent with, a causal connection. In contrast, the analyses suggest that shared genetic liability in parents and their offspring accounts for the increased risk of internalizing problems in adult offspring from divorced families. The study illustrates that unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying parental divorce. In explaining associations between parental divorce and young-adult adjustment, our evidence suggests that selection versus causal mechanisms may operate differently for substance abuse (a causal relation) and internalizing problems (an artifact of selection). The CoT design only controls for the genetic and environmental characteristics of one parent; thus, additional genetically informed analyses are needed.

A head to head evaluation of 8 biochemical scanning tools for unmeasured ions.

PubMed

Morgan, Thomas J; Anstey, Chris M; Wolf, Matthew B

2017-04-01

We aimed to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of 8 biochemical scanning tools in signalling the presence of unmeasured anions. We used blood gas and biochemical data from 15 patients during and after cardio-pulmonary bypass. Sampling time-points were pre-bypass (T1), 2 min post equilibration with priming fluid containing acetate and gluconate anions (T2), late bypass (T3) and 4 h after surgery (T4). We calculated the anion gap (AG), albumin-corrected anion gap (AGc), whole blood base excess (BE) gap, plasma BE gap, standard BE gap and the strong ion gap (SIG), plus 2 new indices-the unmeasured ion index (UIX) and unmeasured plasma anions according to the interstitial, plasma and erythrocyte acid-base model (IPEua). Total measured plasma concentrations of acetate and gluconate [XA] were proxies for unmeasured plasma anions. [XA] values (mmol/L) were 1.41 (0.87) at T1, 11.73 (3.28) at T2, 4.80 (1.49) at T3 and 1.36 (0.73) at T4. Corresponding [albumin] values (g/L) were 32.3 (2.0), 19.8 (2.6), 21.3 (2.5) and 29.1 (2.3) respectively. Only the AG failed to increase significantly at T2 in response to a mean [XA] surge of >10 mEq/L. At an [XA] threshold of 6 mEq/L, areas under receiver -operator characteristic curves in rank order were IPEua and UIX (0.88 and 0.87 respectively), SIG (0.81), AGc (0.79), standard BE gap (0.77), plasma BE gap (0.71), BE gap (0.70) and AG (0.59). Similar ranking hierarchies applied to positive and negative predictive values. We conclude that during acute hemodilution UIX and IPEua are superior to the anion gap (with and without albumin correction) and 4 other indices as scanning tools for unmeasured anions.

Icelandic Physical Therapists' Attitudes Toward Adoption of New Knowledge and Evidence-Based Practice: Cross-Sectional Web-Based Survey.

PubMed

Arnadottir, Solveig A; Gudjonsdottir, Bjorg

2016-11-01

A positive attitude toward evidence-based practice (EBP) has been identified as an important factor in the effectiveness of the dissemination and implementation of EBP in real-world settings. The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe dimensions of Icelandic physical therapists' attitudes toward the adoption of new knowledge and EBP and (2) to explore the association between attitudes and selected personal and environmental factors. This study was a cross-sectional, Web-based survey of the total population of full members of the Icelandic Physiotherapy Association. The Evidence-Based Practice Attitude Scale (EBPAS) was used to survey attitudes toward EBP; the total EBPAS and its 4 subscales (requirements, appeal, openness, and divergence) were included. Linear regression was used to explore the association between the EBPAS and selected background variables. The response rate was 39.5% (N=211). The total EBPAS and all of its subscales reflected physical therapists' positive attitudes toward the adoption of new knowledge and EBP. Multivariable analysis revealed that being a woman was associated with more positive attitudes, as measured by the total EBPAS and the requirements, openness, and divergence subscales. Physical therapists with postprofessional education were more positive, as measured by the EBPAS openness subscale, and those working with at least 10 other physical therapists demonstrated more positive attitudes on the total EBPAS and the openness subscale. Because this was a cross-sectional survey, no causal inferences can be made, and there may have been unmeasured confounding factors. Potential nonresponse bias limits generalizability. The results expand understanding of the phenomenon of attitudes toward EBP. They reveal potentially modifiable dimensions of attitudes and the associated characteristics of physical therapists and their work environments. The findings encourage investigation of the effectiveness of strategies aimed at influencing various dimensions of attitudes toward EBP. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Mode of anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery: secondary analysis from the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network Caesarean Registry.

PubMed

Butwick, A J; El-Sayed, Y Y; Blumenfeld, Y J; Osmundson, S S; Weiniger, C F

2015-08-01

Preterm delivery is often performed by Caesarean section. We investigated modes of anaesthesia and risk factors for general anaesthesia among women undergoing preterm Caesarean delivery. Women undergoing Caesarean delivery between 24(+0) and 36(+6) weeks' gestation were identified from a multicentre US registry. The mode of anaesthesia was classified as neuraxial anaesthesia (spinal, epidural, or combined spinal and epidural) or general anaesthesia. Logistic regression was used to identify patient characteristic, obstetric, and peripartum risk factors associated with general anaesthesia. Within the study cohort, 11 539 women had preterm Caesarean delivery; 9510 (82.4%) underwent neuraxial anaesthesia and 2029 (17.6%) general anaesthesia. In our multivariate model, African-American race [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.7-2.2], Hispanic ethnicity (aOR=1.5; 95% CI=1.2-1.8), other race (aOR=1.4; 95% CI=1.1-1.9), and haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome or eclampsia (aOR=2.8; 95% CI=2.2-3.5) were independently associated with receiving general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. Women with an emergency Caesarean delivery indication had the highest odds for general anaesthesia (aOR=3.5; 95% CI=3.1-3.9). For every 1 week decrease in gestational age at delivery, the adjusted odds of general anaesthesia increased by 13%. In our study cohort, nearly one in five women received general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. Although potential confounding by unmeasured factors cannot be excluded, our findings suggest that early gestational age at delivery, emergent Caesarean delivery indications, hypertensive disease, and non-Caucasian race or ethnicity are associated with general anaesthesia for preterm Caesarean delivery. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Colony-stimulating factor use and impact on febrile neutropenia among patients with newly diagnosed breast, colorectal, or non-small cell lung cancer who were receiving chemotherapy.

PubMed

McCune, Jeannine S; Sullivan, Sean D; Blough, David K; Clarke, Lauren; McDermott, Cara; Malin, Jennifer; Ramsey, Scott

2012-01-01

To determine the impact of primary prophylactic colony-stimulating factor (CSF) use on febrile neutropenia in a large patient population receiving contemporary chemotherapy regimens to treat breast cancer, colorectal cancer, or non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Retrospective claims analysis. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Puget Sound cancer registry and insurance claims records. A total of 2728 patients aged 25 years or older who received a diagnosis of breast cancer (998 patients), colorectal cancer (688 patients), or NSCLC (1042 patients) between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2005, and received chemotherapy. Initial chemotherapy regimen, CSF use (filgrastim or pegfilgrastim), and febrile neutropenia events were evaluated after the first chemotherapy administration. Subsequently, febrile neutropenia rates in patients receiving primary prophylactic CSF were compared with febrile neutropenia rates in patients receiving CSF in settings other than primary prophylaxis or not at all. The impact of primary prophylactic CSF could not be assessed for patients with colorectal cancer or NSCLC because only 1 and 18 febrile neutropenia events, respectively, occurred in those receiving primary prophylactic CSF. Of the 998 patients with breast cancer, 72 (7.2%) experienced febrile neutropenia, 28 of whom received primary prophylactic CSF. In the patients with breast cancer, we observed that primary prophylactic CSF use was associated with reduced febrile neutropenia rates; however, the analysis may have been confounded by unmeasured factors associated with febrile neutropenia. The impact of primary prophylactic CSFs on febrile neutropenia rates could not be demonstrated. Given the substantive cost of CSFs to pharmacy budgets, there are numerous opportunities for pharmacists to optimize CSF use. Research studies are needed to evaluate if guideline-directed prescribing of primary prophylactic CSFs can improve clinical outcomes. © 2012 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Resistance, Reinhabitation, and Regime Change. Working Paper No. 30

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gruenewald, David

2006-01-01

In quoting Ivan Illich's observation that "people who have been schooled down to size let unmeasured experience slip out of their hands," the author of this article contends that this is what is happening in education --- that we are being assimilated and schooled "down to size." Unmeasured experience, he says, is slipping out of our hands as a…

Measuring the "Unmeasurable": An Inquiry Model and Test for the Social Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Scotter, Richard D.; Haas, John D.

New social studies materials are based on inquiry modes of learning and teaching; however, little is known as to what students actually learn from an inquiry model (except for cognitive knowledge). An inquiry model and test to measure the "unmeasurable" in the social studies--namely, a student's ability to use the scientific process, attitudes…

Moderation of the Relation of County-Level Cost of Living to Nutrition by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Wimer, Christopher; Seligman, Hilary

2016-11-01

To examine the association of county-level cost of living with nutrition among low-income Americans. We used the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (2012-2013; n = 14 313; including 5414 persons in households participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP]) to examine associations between county-level cost-of-living metrics and both food acquisitions and the Healthy Eating Index, with control for individual-, household-, and county-level covariates and accounting for unmeasured confounders influencing both area of living and food acquisition. Living in a higher-cost county-particularly one with high rent costs-was associated with significantly lower volume of acquired vegetables, fruits, and whole grains; greater volume of acquired refined grains, fats and oils, and added sugars; and an 11% lower Healthy Eating Index score. Participation in SNAP was associated with nutritional improvements among persons living in higher-cost counties. Living in a higher-cost county (particularly with high rent costs) is associated with poorer nutrition among low-income Americans, and SNAP may mitigate the negative nutritional impact of high cost of living.

Causal inference with missing exposure information: Methods and applications to an obstetric study.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiwei; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Bo; Tang, Li; Zhang, Jun

2016-10-01

Causal inference in observational studies is frequently challenged by the occurrence of missing data, in addition to confounding. Motivated by the Consortium on Safe Labor, a large observational study of obstetric labor practice and birth outcomes, this article focuses on the problem of missing exposure information in a causal analysis of observational data. This problem can be approached from different angles (i.e. missing covariates and causal inference), and useful methods can be obtained by drawing upon the available techniques and insights in both areas. In this article, we describe and compare a collection of methods based on different modeling assumptions, under standard assumptions for missing data (i.e. missing-at-random and positivity) and for causal inference with complete data (i.e. no unmeasured confounding and another positivity assumption). These methods involve three models: one for treatment assignment, one for the dependence of outcome on treatment and covariates, and one for the missing data mechanism. In general, consistent estimation of causal quantities requires correct specification of at least two of the three models, although there may be some flexibility as to which two models need to be correct. Such flexibility is afforded by doubly robust estimators adapted from the missing covariates literature and the literature on causal inference with complete data, and by a newly developed triply robust estimator that is consistent if any two of the three models are correct. The methods are applied to the Consortium on Safe Labor data and compared in a simulation study mimicking the Consortium on Safe Labor. © The Author(s) 2013.

Correlation of hospital magnet status with the quality of physicians performing neurosurgical procedures in New York State.

PubMed

Bekelis, Kimon; Missios, Symeon; MacKenzie, Todd A

2018-01-24

The quality of physicians practicing in hospitals recognized for nursing excellence by the American Nurses Credentialing Center has not been studied before. We investigated whether Magnet hospital recognition is associated with higher quality of physicians performing neurosurgical procedures. We performed a cohort study of patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures from 2009-2013, who were registered in the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) database. Propensity score adjusted multivariable regression models were used to adjust for known confounders, with mixed effects methods to control for clustering at the facility level. An instrumental variable analysis was used to control for unmeasured confounding and simulate the effect of a randomized trial. During the study period, 185,277 patients underwent neurosurgical procedures, and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 66,607 (35.6%) were hospitalized in Magnet hospitals, and 118,670 (64.4%) in non-Magnet institutions. Instrumental variable analysis demonstrated that undergoing neurosurgical operations in Magnet hospitals was associated with a 13.6% higher chance of being treated by a physician with superior performance in terms of mortality (95% CI, 13.2% to 14.1%), and a 4.3% higher chance of being treated by a physician with superior performance in terms of length-of-stay (LOS) (95% CI, 3.8% to 4.7%) in comparison to non-Magnet institutions. The same associations were present in propensity score adjusted mixed effects models. Using a comprehensive all-payer cohort of neurosurgical patients in New York State we identified an association of Magnet hospital recognition with superior physician performance.

Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

2015-02-15

There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Farmers' mental health: A longitudinal sibling comparison - the HUNT study, Norway.

PubMed

Torske, Magnhild Oust; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Hilt, Bjørn; Glasscock, David; Krokstad, Steinar

2016-06-01

Studies of the mental health of farmers have been largely cross-sectional and possibly confounded. We performed a prospective cohort study as well as a sibling comparison to control for unmeasured confounding. Our study included 76 583 participants aged ≥19 years from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study [HUNT1 (1984-1986), HUNT2 (1995-1997) and HUNT3 (2006-2008)]. We used the Anxiety and Depression Index (ADI) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to measure symptoms of mental distress. We used logistic regression to investigate the association between occupation at baseline and symptoms of mental distress 11 years later and fixed effects conditional logistic regression to compare farmers with their siblings working in other occupations. In the prospective cohort study, farmers had similar odds of having symptoms of psychological distress and anxiety as other manual occupational groups. Among all the occupational groups in the study, farmers had the highest odds of having symptoms of depression [odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.55-2.55, reference group: higher grade professionals]. Compared with their farming brothers and sisters, siblings in other occupations had lower odds of having high depression (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.89) and anxiety (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-1.00) scores in 2006-2008. Farmers had higher odds of having high depression scores compared to both other occupational groups and their siblings who were not working as farmers, suggesting that working in agriculture may impact mental health.

Exploring New Zealand prescription data using sequence symmetry analyses for predicting adverse drug reactions.

PubMed

Nishtala, P S; Chyou, T-Y

2017-04-01

Prescription sequence symmetry analyses (PSSA) is a ubiquitous tool employed in pharmacoepidemiological research to predict adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Several studies have reported the advantage of PSSA as a method that can be applied to a large prescription database with computational ease. The objective of this study was to validate New Zealand (NZ) prescription database as a potential source for identifying ADRs using the PSSA method. We analysed de-identified individual-level prescription data for people aged 65 years and above for the period 2005 to 2014 from the pharmaceutical collections supplied by the NZ Ministry of Health. We selected six positive controls that have been previously investigated and reported for causing ADRs. The six positive controls identified were amiodarone (repeated twice), frusemide, simvastatin, lithium and fluticasone. Amiodarone and lithium have been reported to induce thyroid dysfunction. Simvastatin reported to cause muscle cramps while fluticasone is well documented to cause oral candidiasis. Thyroxine was identified as a marker drug to treat hypothyroidism associated with amiodarone and lithium. Carbimazole was identified as a marker drug to treat hyperthyroidism associated with amiodarone use. Quinine sulphate was identified as a marker drug to treat muscle cramps associated with statins. In addition, we also analysed six negative controls that are unlikely to be associated with ADRs. The main outcome measure is to determine associations with ADRs using adjusted sequence ratios (ASR), and 95% confidence intervals RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Our analyses confirmed a significant signal for all six positive controls. Significant positive associations were noted for amiodarone [ASR = 3·57, 95% CI (3·17-4·02)], and lithium chloride induced hypothyroidism [ASR = 3·43, 95% CI (2·55-4·70)]. Amiodarone was also strongly associated with hyperthyroidism [ASR = 8·81 95% CI (5·86-13·77)]. Simvastatin was associated with muscle cramps [ASR = 1·69, 95% CI (1·61-1·77)]. Fluticasone was positively associated with oral candidiasis [ASR = 2·34, 95% CI (2·19-2·50)]. Frusemide was associated with hypokalaemia [ASR = 2·94, 95% CI (2·83-3·05]). No strong associations were noted for the negative pairs. It is important to highlight that PSSA automatically controls for all confounding factors including unknown and unmeasured confounding variables, plus the effect of temporal trend in prescriptions, and hence allows a more robust ADR detection especially when confounding factors are difficult to determine or measure. New Zealand prescription database can be a potential source to identify ADRs engaging the PSSA method, and this could complement pharmacovigilance surveillance in NZ. The PSSA can be an important method for post-marketing surveillance and monitoring of ADRs which have relatively short latency. However, the predictive validity of PSSA will be compromised in certain scenarios, particularly when sample size is small, when new drugs are in the market and data are sparse. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis and Design of Complex Network Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-01

entanglements among un- measured variables. This “potential entanglement ” type of network complexity is previously unaddressed in the literature, yet it...Appreciating the power of structural representations that allow for potential entanglement among unmeasured variables to simplify network inference problems...rely on the idea of subsystems and allows for potential entanglement among unmeasured states. As a result, inferring a system’s signal structure

Grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with the mother and asthma in the grandchild: the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Magnus, Maria C; Håberg, Siri E; Karlstad, Øystein; Nafstad, Per; London, Stephanie J; Nystad, Wenche

2016-01-01

Background A trans-generational influence of prenatal tobacco smoke exposure on asthma development has been proposed but the evidence remains sparse. Methods We examined the grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with the mother in relation to asthma outcomes in the grandchild [current asthma at 36 months (N=53,169,cases=3,013), current asthma at 7 years (N=25,394,cases=1,265) and dispensed asthma medications at 7 years in the Norwegian Prescription Database (N=45,607,cases=1,787)] within the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study(MoBa). We calculated adjusted relative risks (adj. RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using log binomial regression. Results A total of 23.5% of mothers reported that their mother smoked when pregnant with them. The grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with the mother was positively associated with asthma at 36 months [adj.RR 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.24)], asthma at 7 years [adj.RR 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37)] and dispensed asthma medications at 7 years [adj.RR 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.26)]. This positive association did not differ significantly by the mother’s smoking status when pregnant with the child (P-values for multiplicative interaction >0.1). Conclusion The grandmother’s smoking when pregnant with the mother increased the risk of asthma in the grandchild independent of the mother’s smoking status. However, given limited information on the grandmother’s socio-economic status, asthma status and other factors, unmeasured confounding may be present. PMID:25572596

Death following partner bereavement: A self-controlled case series analysis.

PubMed

King, Michael; Lodwick, Rebecca; Jones, Rebecca; Whitaker, Heather; Petersen, Irene

2017-01-01

There is mixed evidence that older people bereaved of a spouse or partner are at risk of adverse outcomes. The main difficulty is to take account of other explanatory factors. We tested for an association between a patient's death and the timing of any bereavement of a cohabitee. Self-controlled case series study in which each case serves as his or her own control and which thereby accounts for all fixed measurable and unmeasurable confounders. We used the Health Improvement Network (THIN) primary care database to identify patients who died aged 50-99 years during the period 2003 to 2014. We used the household identifier in the database to determine whether they had an opposite sex cohabitee at the start of the observation period. 38,773 men and 23,396 women who had died and who had a cohabitee at the start of the observation period, were identified and included in male and female cohorts respectively. A higher risk of death was found in the 24 months after the death of the cohabitee than in the time classified as unexposed. The greatest risk was during the first 3 months after the death of the cohabitee (age-adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.63, 95% CI 1.45-1.83 in the male cohort, and IRR 1.70, 95% CI 1.52-1.90 in the female cohort). Risk of death in men or women was significantly higher after the death of a cohabitee and this was greatest in the first three months of bereavement. We need more evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce this increased mortality.

A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia

PubMed Central

Chen, Mengni; Lloyd, Chris J.

2018-01-01

A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup’s potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies. PMID:29425220

Kidney transplant graft outcomes in 379 257 recipients on 3 continents.

PubMed

Merion, Robert M; Goodrich, Nathan P; Johnson, Rachel J; McDonald, Stephen P; Russ, Graeme R; Gillespie, Brenda W; Collett, David

2018-03-24

Kidney transplant outcomes that vary by program or geopolitical unit may result from variability in practice patterns or health care delivery systems. In this collaborative study, we compared kidney graft outcomes among 4 countries (United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand) on 3 continents. We analyzed transplant and follow-up registry data from 1988-2014 for 379 257 recipients of first kidney-only transplants using Cox regression. Compared to the United States, 1-year adjusted graft failure risk was significantly higher in the United Kingdom (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.26, P < .001) and New Zealand (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.46, P < .001), but lower in Australia (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.96, P = .001). In contrast, long-term adjusted graft failure risk (conditional on 1-year function) was significantly higher in the United States compared to Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom (HR 0.74, 0.75, and 0.74, respectively; each P < .001). Thus long-term kidney graft outcomes are approximately 25% worse in the United States than in 3 other countries with well-developed kidney transplant systems. Case mix differences and residual confounding from unmeasured factors were found to be unlikely explanations. These findings suggest that identification of potentially modifiable country-specific differences in care delivery and/or practice patterns should be sought. © 2018 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

A Children of Twins Study of parental divorce and offspring psychopathology

PubMed Central

D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E.; Maes, Hermine H.; Silberg, Judy; Eaves, Lindon J.

2010-01-01

Background Although parental divorce is associated with increased substance use and internalizing problems, experiencing the separation of one's parents may not cause these outcomes. The relations may be due to genetic or environmental selection factors, characteristics that lead to both marital separation and offspring functioning. Method We used the Children of Twins (CoT) Design to explore whether unmeasured genetic or environmental factors related to the twin parent, and measured characteristics of both parents, account for the association between parental divorce and offspring substance use and internalizing problems. Results The association between parental divorce and offspring substance use problems remained robust when controlling for genetic and environmental risk from the twin parent associated with parental divorce, and measured characteristics of both parents. The results do not prove, but are consistent with, a causal connection. In contrast, the analyses suggest that shared genetic liability in parents and their offspring accounts for the increased risk of internalizing problems in adult offspring from divorced families. Conclusions The study illustrates that unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying parental divorce. In explaining associations between parental divorce and young-adult adjustment, our evidence suggests that selection versus causal mechanisms may operate differently for substance abuse (a causal relation) and internalizing problems (an artifact of selection). The CoT design only controls for the genetic and environmental characteristics of one parent; thus, additional genetically informed analyses are needed. PMID:17593147

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Guilty as charged: unmeasured urinary anions in a case of pyroglutamic acidosis.

PubMed

Rolleman, E J; Hoorn, E J; Didden, P; Zietse, R

2008-09-01

A patient developed an unexplained metabolic acidosis with the characteristics of renal tubular acidosis. By correcting the serum anion gap for hypoalbuminaemia and analysing the urinary anions and cations, the presence of unmeasured anions was revealed. The diagnosis of pyroglutamic acidosis, caused by a combination of flucloxacillin and acetaminophen, was established. Strategies for solving complex cases of metabolic acidosis are discussed.

Energy balance in man measured by direct and indirect calorimetry.

PubMed

Webb, P; Annis, J F; Troutman, S J

1980-06-01

In six 24-hr measurements of energy balance, direct and indirect calorimetry agreed within +/-3%, which is probably the range of experimental error. But in seven other 24-hr periods there was disagreement in the range of 8 to 23%, and these were usually days when the subjects ate much less than they spent metabolically. Our direct calorimeter is an insulated, water cooled suit. Continous measurements of O2 consumption and CO2 production provided data on metabolic expenditure (M) by indirect calorimetry. The 24-hr values for M matched the energy losses within +/-60 kcal (+/-3% of M) in four men who rested all day and lay down to sleep at night. Similar agreement was seen in one of the four who worked on a treadmill for 4 hr and stayed busy all day. but in another energy losses were 342 kcal greater than M (10% of M). When the experiments gave values for M minus the losses greater than +/-60 kcal, this is called "unmeasured energy". In further experiments, two subjects stayed awake for 24 hr, and their unmeasured energies were 279 and 393 kcal. The same two men, eating sparingly, also worked for 24 hr so as to double their resting metabolic expenditures; the unmeasured energies were even larger, 380 and 958 kcal. When they repeated the 24 hr of mild work, but ate nearly as much as they spent metabolically, one man was near energy balance, while the other showed an unmeasured energy of -363 kcal. Little heat storage was evident in these experiments; therefore, heat balance was present and energy balance should have been present. In the group of 13 experiments, it appeared that the greater the food deficit, the larger was the unmeasured energy (excess of metabolic expenditure over loss of energy).

Identification Approach to Alleviate Effects of Unmeasured Heat Gains for MIMO Building Thermal Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Jie; Kim, Donghun; Braun, James E.

It is important to have practical methods for constructing a good mathematical model for a building's thermal system for energy audits, retrofit analysis and advanced building controls, e.g. model predictive control. Identification approaches based on semi-physical model structures are popular in building science for those purposes. However conventional gray box identification approaches applied to thermal networks would fail when significant unmeasured heat gains present in estimation data. Although this situation is very common and practical, there has been little research to tackle this issue in building science. This paper presents an overall identification approach to alleviate influences of unmeasured disturbances,more » and hence to obtain improved gray-box building models. The approach was applied to an existing open space building and the performance is demonstrated.« less

Health Risk Factors Associated with Lifetime Abstinence from Alcohol in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Cohort.

PubMed

Kerr, William C; Lui, Camillia K; Williams, Edwina; Ye, Yu; Greenfield, Thomas K; Lown, E Anne

2017-02-01

The choice and definition of a comparison group in alcohol-related health studies remains a prominent issue in alcohol epidemiology due to potential biases in the risk estimates. The most commonly used comparison group has been current abstainers; however, this includes former drinkers who may have quit drinking due to health problems. Lifetime abstention could be the best option, but measurement issues, selection biases due to health and other risk factors, and small numbers in populations are important concerns. This study examines characteristics of lifetime abstention and occasional drinking that are relevant for alcohol-related health studies. This study used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort of 14 to 21 year olds followed through 2012 (n = 7,515). Definitions of abstinence and occasional drinking were constructed based on multiple measurements. Descriptive analyses were used to compare the definitions, and in further analysis, lifetime abstainers (n = 718) and lifetime minimal drinkers (n = 1,027) were compared with drinkers across demographics and early-life characteristics (i.e., religion, poverty, parental education, and family alcohol problems) in logistic regression models. Using a strict measurement of zero drinks from adolescence to the 50s, only 1.7% of the sample was defined as lifetime abstainer compared to a broader definition allowing a total of 1 drink over the lifetime that included 9.5% and to lifetime minimal drinking (a total of 3 drinks or less a month), which accounted for 13.7%. Factors significantly associated with lifetime abstention and lifetime minimal drinking included religion, poverty, having no family alcohol problems, Hispanic ethnicity, foreign-born, and female gender. Importantly, work-related health limitations in early life were significantly associated, but not childhood physical and mental health problems. Alcohol-related health studies should utilize lifetime classifications of drinkers and abstainers, and, in doing so, should account for early-life socioeconomic adversity and childhood health factors or consider these as unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Identifying Older Adults at Risk of Delirium Following Elective Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Watt, Jennifer; Tricco, Andrea C; Talbot-Hamon, Catherine; Pham, Ba'; Rios, Patricia; Grudniewicz, Agnes; Wong, Camilla; Sinclair, Douglas; Straus, Sharon E

2018-04-01

Postoperative delirium is a common preventable complication experienced by older adults undergoing elective surgery. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified prognostic factors associated with the risk of postoperative delirium among older adults undergoing elective surgery. Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and AgeLine were searched for articles published between inception and April 21, 2016. A total of 5692 titles and abstracts were screened in duplicate for possible inclusion. Studies using any method for diagnosing delirium were eligible. Two reviewers independently completed all data extraction and quality assessments using the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias Tool for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) for cohort studies. Random effects meta-analysis models were used to derive pooled effect estimates. Forty-one studies (9384 patients) reported delirium-related prognostic factors. Among our included studies, the pooled incidence of postoperative delirium was 18.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14.3-23.3%, number needed to follow [NNF] = 6). Geriatric syndromes were important predictors of delirium, namely history of delirium (odds ratio [OR] 6.4, 95% CI 2.2-17.9), frailty (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.4-11.7), cognitive impairment (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.9-3.8), impairment in activities of daily living (ADLs; OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.6), and impairment in instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs; OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.8). Potentially modifiable prognostic factors such as psychotropic medication use (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.6) and smoking status (OR 1.8 95% CI 1.3-2.4) were also identified. Caregiver support was associated with lower odds of postoperative delirium (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52-0.91). Though caution must be used in interpreting meta-analyses of non-randomized studies due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounding, we identified potentially modifiable prognostic factors including frailty and psychotropic medication use that should be targeted to optimize care.

Causal Inference from Big Data: Theoretical Foundations and the Data-fusion Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

both treatment and response. Some of these factors may be unmeasurable, such as genetic trait or lifestyle, while others are measurable, such as gender...several tasks in Artificial Intelligence [22, 23] and Statistics [24, 25] as well as in the empirical sciences (e.g., Genetics [26, 27], Economics [28...conditions are likely to be different. Special cases of transportability can be found in the literature under different rubrics such as “external validity

Safety of metformin in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Hitchings, Andrew W; Archer, John R H; Srivastava, Shelley A; Baker, Emma H

2015-04-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is commonly associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Metformin is a valuable treatment for T2DM, and may offer additional benefits in COPD. However, due to its rare association with lactic acidosis, its safety in COPD is uncertain. We retrospectively identified patients with T2DM who had been admitted to hospital for COPD exacerbations. We compared those who were taking metformin with those who were not, with respect to their lactate concentration (primary endpoint) and survival (secondary endpoint). The study cohort (n = 130) had a mean (±standard deviation) age of 73.0 ± 9.8 years and 47 (36%) were female. Arterial blood gases were recorded in 120 cases: 88 (73%) were hypoxemic, 45 (38%) were in respiratory failure and 33 (28%) had respiratory acidosis. The 51 patients (39%) in the metformin group had a median (interquartile range) lactate concentration of 1.45 mmol/L (1.10-2.05) versus 1.10 mmol/L (0.80-1.50) in the non-metformin group (p = 0.012). Median survival was 5.2 years (95% CI 4.5-5.8) versus 1.9 years (1.1-2.6), respectively (hazard ratio 0.57; 95% CI 0.35-0.94). This remained significant in a multivariate model adjusted for measurable confounders. In conclusion, among patients with COPD at high risk for lactate accumulation, metformin therapy was associated with a minor elevation of lactate concentration of doubtful clinical significance. Metformin was associated with a survival benefit, but this must be interpreted cautiously due to possible effects from unmeasured confounders. Viewed collectively, the results suggest that COPD should not present a barrier to the investigational or clinical use of metformin.

Controlling for Frailty in Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies of Older Adults: Validation of an Existing Medicare Claims-based Algorithm.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Carmen C; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Faurot, Keturah R; Stürmer, Til; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Palta, Priya; Windham, B Gwen; Thai, Sydney; Lund, Jennifer L

2018-07-01

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity.

Explaining the relationship between temperament and symptoms of psychiatric disorders from preschool to middle childhood: hybrid fixed and random effects models of Norwegian and Spanish children.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars; Penelo, Eva; Rensvik Viddal, Kristine; de la Osa, Nuria; Ezpeleta, Lourdes

2018-03-01

Four explanations for the concurrent and prospective associations between temperament and psychopathology in children have been suggested: predisposition, complication/scar, common cause/continuity, and pathoplasty/exacerbation. Because the confounding effects of common causes have not been ruled out in prior work, the support for the various explanations is uncertain. Screen-stratified community samples of 4-year olds in Trondheim, Norway (n = 1,042), and 3-year olds in Barcelona, Spain (n = 622), were assessed biennially for symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity (ADHD), oppositional defiant (ODD), conduct (CD), anxiety, and depressive disorders through interviewer-based psychiatric interviews across four waves of data collection. The parents completed child temperament ratings. The data were analyzed with random and fixed effects regression adjusted for all time-invariant unmeasured confounders (e.g., genetics, common methods bias, item overlap). In both Norway and Spain and across ages, negative affect predisposed children to symptoms of all disorders except CD, low effortful control predisposed children to ADHD and ODD-symptoms, and surgency predisposed children to increased ADHD-symptoms. Complication effects were observed in the Spanish children for ADHD-symptoms, which increased surgency and diminished effortful control, and for ODD-symptoms, which decreased surgency. The common cause and pathoplasty/exacerbation explanations were not supported. The present results are consistent with the view that temperament plays a causal role in the development of symptoms of psychiatric disorders in children. Because temperament is malleable, interventions targeting the affective, attentional, and behavioral regulatory components of temperament may reduce psychopathology in children. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Respiratory, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older US Adults.

PubMed

Pun, Vivian C; Kazemiparkouhi, Fatemeh; Manjourides, Justin; Suh, Helen H

2017-10-15

The impact of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5)) on respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality is poorly understood. In a cohort of 18.9 million Medicare beneficiaries (4.2 million deaths) living across the conterminous United States between 2000 and 2008, we examined the association between chronic PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality. We evaluated confounding through adjustment for neighborhood behavioral covariates and decomposition of PM2.5 into 2 spatiotemporal scales. We found significantly positive associations of 12-month moving average PM2.5 exposures (per 10-μg/m3 increase) with respiratory, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia mortality, with risk ratios ranging from 1.10 to 1.24. We also found significant PM2.5-associated elevated risks for cardiovascular and lung cancer mortality. Risk ratios generally increased with longer moving averages; for example, an elevation in 60-month moving average PM2.5 exposures was linked to 1.33 times the lung cancer mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.24, 1.40), as compared with 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.15) for 12-month moving average exposures. Observed associations were robust in multivariable models, although evidence of unmeasured confounding remained. In this large cohort of US elderly, we provide important new evidence that long-term PM2.5 exposure is significantly related to increased mortality from respiratory disease, lung cancer, and cardiovascular disease. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Studying physician effects on patient outcomes: physician interactional style and performance on quality of care indicators.

PubMed

Franks, Peter; Jerant, Anthony F; Fiscella, Kevin; Shields, Cleveland G; Tancredi, Daniel J; Epstein, Ronald M

2006-01-01

Many prior studies which suggest a relationship between physician interactional style and patient outcomes may have been confounded by relying solely on patient reports, examining very few patients per physician, or not demonstrating evidence of a physician effect on the outcomes. We examined whether physician interactional style, measured both by patient report and objective encounter ratings, is related to performance on quality of care indicators. We also tested for the presence of physician effects on the performance indicators. Using data on 100 US primary care physician (PCP) claims data on 1,21,606 of their managed care patients, survey data on 4746 of their visiting patients, and audiotaped encounters of 2 standardized patients with each physician, we examined the relationships between claims-based quality of care indicators and both survey-derived patient perceptions of their physicians and objective ratings of interactional style in the audiotaped standardized patient encounters. Multi-level models examined whether physician effects (variance components) on care indicators were mediated by patient perceptions or objective ratings of interactional style. We found significant physician effects associated with glycohemoglobin and cholesterol testing. There was also a clinically significant association between better patient perceptions of their physicians and more glycohemoglobin testing. Multi-level analyses revealed, however, that the physician effect on glycohemoglobin testing was not mediated by patient perceived physician interaction style. In conclusion, similar to prior studies, we found evidence of an apparent relationship between patient perceptions of their physician and patient outcomes. However, the apparent relationships found in this study between patient perceptions of their physicians and patient care processes do not reflect physician style, but presumably reflect unmeasured patient confounding. Multi-level modeling may contribute to better understanding of the relationships between physician style and patient outcomes.

Outcomes of deliveries by family physicians or obstetricians: a population-based cohort study using an instrumental variable

PubMed Central

Aubrey-Bassler, Kris; Cullen, Richard M.; Simms, Alvin; Asghari, Shabnam; Crane, Joan; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Godwin, Marshall

2015-01-01

Background: Previous research has suggested that obstetric outcomes are similar for deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians, but many of these studies were small, and none of them adjusted for unmeasured selection bias. We compared obstetric outcomes between these provider types using an econometric method designed to adjust for unobserved confounding. Methods: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study of all Canadian (except Quebec) hospital births with delivery by family physicians and obstetricians at more than 20 weeks gestational age, with birth weight greater than 500 g, between Apr. 1, 2006, and Mar. 31, 2009. The primary outcomes were the relative risks of in-hospital perinatal death and a composite of maternal mortality and major morbidity assessed with multivariable logistic regression and instrumental variable–adjusted multivariable regression. Results: After exclusions, there were 3600 perinatal deaths and 14 394 cases of maternal morbidity among 799 823 infants and 793 053 mothers at 390 hospitals. For deliveries by family physicians v. obstetricians, the relative risk of perinatal mortality was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–1.14) and of maternal morbidity was 0.81 (95% CI 0.70–0.94) according to logistic regression. The respective relative risks were 0.97 (95% CI 0.58–1.64) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.65–1.95) according to instrumental variable methods. Interpretation: After adjusting for both observed and unobserved confounders, we found a similar risk of perinatal mortality and adverse maternal outcome for obstetric deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians. Whether there are differences between these groups for other outcomes remains to be seen. PMID:26303244

Proton pump inhibitors and the risk of hospitalisation for community-acquired pneumonia: replicated cohort studies with meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Filion, Kristian B; Chateau, Dan; Targownik, Laura E; Gershon, Andrea; Durand, Madeleine; Tamim, Hala; Teare, Gary F; Ravani, Pietro; Ernst, Pierre; Dormuth, Colin R

2014-01-01

Objective Previous observational studies suggest that the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) may increase the risk of hospitalisation for community-acquired pneumonia (HCAP). However, the potential presence of confounding and protopathic biases limits the conclusions that can be drawn from these studies. Our objective was, therefore, to examine the risk of HCAP with PPIs prescribed prophylactically in new users of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Design We formed eight restricted cohorts of new users of NSAIDs, aged ≥40 years, using a common protocol in eight databases (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, US MarketScan and the UK's General Practice Research Database (GPRD)). This specific patient population was studied to minimise bias due to unmeasured confounders. High-dimensional propensity scores were used to estimate site-specific adjusted ORs (aORs) for HCAP at 6 months in PPI patients compared with unexposed patients. Fixed-effects meta-analytic models were used to estimate overall effects across databases. Results Of the 4 238 504 new users of NSAIDs, 2.3% also started a PPI. The cumulative 6-month incidence of HCAP was 0.17% among patients prescribed PPIs and 0.12% in unexposed patients. After adjustment, PPIs were not associated with an increased risk of HCAP (aOR=1.05; 95% CI 0.89 to 1.25). Histamine-2 receptor antagonists yielded similar results (aOR=0.95, 95% CI  0.75 to 1.21). Conclusions Our study does not support the proposition of a pharmacological effect of gastric acid suppressors on the risk of HCAP. PMID:23856153

Breast feeding and early adolescent behaviour, self-esteem and depression: Hong Kong's 'Children of 1997' birth cohort.

PubMed

Kwok, Man Ki; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

2013-11-01

Breast feeding may contribute to neurological development and hence mental health. However, associations from Western populations are unclear, and most likely confounded by socioeconomic position (SEP), making evidence from other sociocultural settings valuable. We examined whether breast feeding was associated with early adolescent emotional and behavioural problems, self-esteem and depressive symptoms in a non-Western developed setting, where socioeconomic patterning of breast feeding differs from but other postnatal characteristics are similar to Western settings. The adjusted associations of breast feeding with emotional and behavioural problems assessed from parent-reported Rutter z-score at ~11 years (n=5598, 67% follow-up), self-reported self-esteem z-score at ~11 years (n=6937, 84%) and depressive symptoms assessed from self-reported Patient Health Questionnaire-9 z-score at ~13 years (n=5797, 70%) were examined using multivariable linear regression in a population-representative Hong Kong Chinese birth cohort, 'Children of 1997'. Mothers from families with higher education tended to start but not sustain breast feeding, whereas migrant mothers tended to start and sustain breast feeding. Breast feeding for 3+ months had mostly null associations with Rutter score, self-esteem or depressive symptoms adjusted for sex, age, survey mode, SEP, parents' age, birth weight-for-gestational age, birth order and secondhand smoke exposure, although partial breast feeding for any length of time or exclusive breast feeding for <3 months was associated with poorer behaviour (higher Rutter z-score (0.10, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.16)) and lower self-esteem (-0.09, 95% CI -0.14 to -0.04). In a non-Western developed setting, breast feeding was inconsistently associated with several early adolescent mental health measures suggesting a reflection of setting specific unmeasured confounding.

Using Claims Data to Predict Dependency in Activities of Daily Living as a Proxy for Frailty

PubMed Central

Faurot, Keturah R.; Funk, Michele Jonsson; Pate, Virginia; Brookhart, M. Alan; Patrick, Amanda; Hanson, Laura C.; Castillo, Wendy Camelo; Stürmer, Til

2014-01-01

Purpose Estimating drug effectiveness and safety among older adults in population-based studies using administrative healthcare claims can be hampered by unmeasured confounding due to frailty. A claims-based algorithm that identifies patients likely to be dependent, a proxy for frailty, may improve confounding control. Our objective was to develop an algorithm to predict dependency in activities of daily living (ADL) in a sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Methods Community-dwelling respondents to the 2006 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, >65 years old, with Medicare Part A, B, home health, and hospice claims were included. ADL dependency was defined as needing help with bathing, eating, walking, dressing, toileting, or transferring. Potential predictors were demographics, ICD-9 diagnosis/procedure and durable medical equipment codes for frailty-associated conditions. Multivariable logistic regression was to predict ADL dependency. Cox models estimated hazard ratios for death as a function of observed and predicted ADL dependency. Results Of 6391 respondents, 57% were female, 88% white, and 38% were ≥80. The prevalence of ADL dependency was 9.5%. Strong predictors of ADL dependency were charges for a home hospital bed (OR=5.44, 95% CI=3.28–9.03) and wheelchair (OR=3.91, 95% CI=2.78–5.51). The c-statistic of the final model was 0.845. Model-predicted ADL dependency of 20% or greater was associated with a hazard ratio for death of 3.19 (95% CI: 2.78, 3.68). Conclusions An algorithm for predicting ADL dependency using healthcare claims was developed to measure some aspects of frailty. Accounting for variation in frailty among older adults could lead to more valid conclusions about treatment use, safety, and effectiveness. PMID:25335470

Ambulatory Medical Follow-Up in the Year After Surgery and Subsequent Survival in a National Cohort of Veterans Health Administration Surgical Patients.

PubMed

Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Brandt, Cynthia; Burg, Matthew M

2016-06-01

Among a national cohort of surgical patients, the authors analyzed the association between medical follow-up during the first postsurgical year and survival during the second postsurgical year. Retrospective cohort study. US Veterans Hospitals. The study included adults who received surgical care in any Veterans Health Administration facility from 2006 to 2011 who were discharged within 10 days of surgery and who survived for at least 1 year postoperatively. None. The association between the receipt of nonsurgical ambulatory medical care during the first postoperative year and the hazard of death during postsurgical year 2 was measured. Among 236,200 veterans, 93.2% received a nonsurgical medical follow-up visit in postsurgical year 1; of those, 5.1% died during postsurgical year 2. This compares with 9.4% year-2 mortality among patients lacking year-1 medical follow-up (p<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, medical follow-up in postoperative year 1 again was associated with a significantly lower hazard of death in postoperative year 2 (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.66-0.78). Sensitivity analyses examining patient subgroups stratified by procedural specialty demonstrated comparable findings. The results were robust under a variety of simulated scenarios of unmeasured confounding. Within a national cohort of US veterans who presented for surgery, those who received nonsurgical ambulatory follow-up during the first postoperative year demonstrated lower all-cause mortality in the subsequent postoperative year than those who did not receive the same type of follow-up care. Interventions focused on postoperative care coordination of outpatient medical follow-up may have the potential to improve long-term postoperative survival. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating marginal hazard ratios.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2013-07-20

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce or minimize the effects of confounding when estimating the effects of treatments, exposures, or interventions when using observational or non-randomized data. Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, previous research has shown that propensity score methods allow for unbiased estimation of linear treatment effects (e.g., differences in means or proportions). However, in biomedical research, time-to-event outcomes occur frequently. There is a paucity of research into the performance of different propensity score methods for estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Furthermore, propensity score methods allow for the estimation of marginal or population-average treatment effects. We conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of propensity score matching (1:1 greedy nearest-neighbor matching within propensity score calipers), stratification on the propensity score, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score to estimate marginal hazard ratios. We found that both propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score allow for the estimation of marginal hazard ratios with minimal bias. Of these two approaches, IPTW using the propensity score resulted in estimates with lower mean squared error when estimating the effect of treatment in the treated. Stratification on the propensity score and covariate adjustment using the propensity score result in biased estimation of both marginal and conditional hazard ratios. Applied researchers are encouraged to use propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score when estimating the relative effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alag, Gurbux S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1990-01-01

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper represented an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described.

Observer synthesis for a class of Takagi-Sugeno descriptor system with unmeasurable premise variable. Application to fault diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Estrada, F. R.; Astorga-Zaragoza, C. M.; Theilliol, D.; Ponsart, J. C.; Valencia-Palomo, G.; Torres, L.

2017-12-01

This paper proposes a methodology to design a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) descriptor observer for a class of TS descriptor systems. Unlike the popular approach that considers measurable premise variables, this paper considers the premise variables depending on unmeasurable vectors, e.g. the system states. This consideration covers a large class of nonlinear systems and represents a real challenge for the observer synthesis. Sufficient conditions to guarantee robustness against the unmeasurable premise variables and asymptotic convergence of the TS descriptor observer are obtained based on the H∞ approach together with the Lyapunov method. As a result, the designing conditions are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). In addition, sensor fault detection and isolation are performed by means of a generalised observer bank. Two numerical experiments, an electrical circuit and a rolling disc system, are presented in order to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Increased Duration of Paid Maternity Leave Lowers Infant Mortality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Quasi-Experimental Study.

PubMed

Nandi, Arijit; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Harper, Sam; Koski, Alissa; Strumpf, Erin C; Heymann, Jody

2016-03-01

Maternity leave reduces neonatal and infant mortality rates in high-income countries. However, the impact of maternity leave on infant health has not been rigorously evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this study, we utilized a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate whether paid maternity leave policies affect infant mortality in LMICs. We used birth history data collected via the Demographic and Health Surveys to assemble a panel of approximately 300,000 live births in 20 countries from 2000 to 2008; these observational data were merged with longitudinal information on the duration of paid maternity leave provided by each country. We estimated the effect of an increase in maternity leave in the prior year on the probability of infant (<1 y), neonatal (<28 d), and post-neonatal (between 28 d and 1 y after birth) mortality. Fixed effects for country and year were included to control for, respectively, unobserved time-invariant confounders that varied across countries and temporal trends in mortality that were shared across countries. Average rates of infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality over the study period were 55.2, 30.7, and 23.0 per 1,000 live births, respectively. Each additional month of paid maternity was associated with 7.9 fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI 3.7, 12.0), reflecting a 13% relative reduction. Reductions in infant mortality associated with increases in the duration of paid maternity leave were concentrated in the post-neonatal period. Estimates were robust to adjustment for individual, household, and country-level characteristics, although there may be residual confounding by unmeasured time-varying confounders, such as coincident policy changes. More generous paid maternity leave policies represent a potential instrument for facilitating early-life interventions and reducing infant mortality in LMICs and warrant further discussion in the post-2015 sustainable development agenda. From a policy planning perspective, further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms that explain the benefits of paid maternity leave for infant mortality.

Increased Duration of Paid Maternity Leave Lowers Infant Mortality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Quasi-Experimental Study

PubMed Central

Nandi, Arijit; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Harper, Sam; Koski, Alissa; Strumpf, Erin C.; Heymann, Jody

2016-01-01

Background Maternity leave reduces neonatal and infant mortality rates in high-income countries. However, the impact of maternity leave on infant health has not been rigorously evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this study, we utilized a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate whether paid maternity leave policies affect infant mortality in LMICs. Methods and Findings We used birth history data collected via the Demographic and Health Surveys to assemble a panel of approximately 300,000 live births in 20 countries from 2000 to 2008; these observational data were merged with longitudinal information on the duration of paid maternity leave provided by each country. We estimated the effect of an increase in maternity leave in the prior year on the probability of infant (<1 y), neonatal (<28 d), and post-neonatal (between 28 d and 1 y after birth) mortality. Fixed effects for country and year were included to control for, respectively, unobserved time-invariant confounders that varied across countries and temporal trends in mortality that were shared across countries. Average rates of infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality over the study period were 55.2, 30.7, and 23.0 per 1,000 live births, respectively. Each additional month of paid maternity was associated with 7.9 fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI 3.7, 12.0), reflecting a 13% relative reduction. Reductions in infant mortality associated with increases in the duration of paid maternity leave were concentrated in the post-neonatal period. Estimates were robust to adjustment for individual, household, and country-level characteristics, although there may be residual confounding by unmeasured time-varying confounders, such as coincident policy changes. Conclusions More generous paid maternity leave policies represent a potential instrument for facilitating early-life interventions and reducing infant mortality in LMICs and warrant further discussion in the post-2015 sustainable development agenda. From a policy planning perspective, further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms that explain the benefits of paid maternity leave for infant mortality. PMID:27022926

Lifestyle factors among proton pump inhibitor users and nonusers: a cross-sectional study in a population-based setting.

PubMed

Hvid-Jensen, Frederik; Nielsen, Rikke B; Pedersen, Lars; Funch-Jensen, Peter; Drewes, Asbjørn Mohr; Larsen, Finn B; Thomsen, Reimar W

2013-01-01

Lifestyle factors may influence observed associations between proton pump inhibitor (PPI) usage and health outcomes. The aim of the study reported here was to examine characteristics and differences in lifestyle among PPI users and nonusers. This cross-sectional study utilized data from a 2006 population-based health survey of 21,637 persons in the Central Danish Region. All persons using prescribed PPIs were identified through linkage to a population-based prescription database. Biometric measures and prevalence of smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, diet, and physical exercise were analyzed, comparing PPI users with nonusers. Among 10,129 (46.8%) male and 11,508 (53.2%) female survey respondents, 1,356 (13.4%) males and 1,691 (14.7%) females reported ever use of PPIs. PPI users were more obese (16.7%) than nonusers (13.1%), with an age- and sex-standardized prevalence ratio (PR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.4). The prevalence of smokers was also higher in the PPI group (26.2% vs 22.3% [PR =1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3]), as was the prevalence of ex-smokers (41.0% vs 32.0% [PR =1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.2]). Unhealthy diet was slightly more common among PPI users than among nonusers (15.4% vs 13.0%), with a PR of 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1-1.3). Physical exercise level and alcohol consumption were similar in the two groups. Hospital-diagnosed comorbidity was observed in 35% of PPI users (a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 1 or more) compared with only 15% among nonusers. PPI users are more obese, smoke more, and have significantly more comorbidities than PPI nonusers. These data are important when evaluating unmeasured confounding in observational studies of PPI effects.

Moderation of the Relation of County-Level Cost of Living to Nutrition by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

PubMed Central

Wimer, Christopher; Seligman, Hilary

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine the association of county-level cost of living with nutrition among low-income Americans. Methods. We used the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (2012–2013; n = 14 313; including 5414 persons in households participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP]) to examine associations between county-level cost-of-living metrics and both food acquisitions and the Healthy Eating Index, with control for individual-, household-, and county-level covariates and accounting for unmeasured confounders influencing both area of living and food acquisition. Results. Living in a higher-cost county—particularly one with high rent costs—was associated with significantly lower volume of acquired vegetables, fruits, and whole grains; greater volume of acquired refined grains, fats and oils, and added sugars; and an 11% lower Healthy Eating Index score. Participation in SNAP was associated with nutritional improvements among persons living in higher-cost counties. Conclusions. Living in a higher-cost county (particularly with high rent costs) is associated with poorer nutrition among low-income Americans, and SNAP may mitigate the negative nutritional impact of high cost of living. PMID:27631742

Propensity Scores in Pharmacoepidemiology: Beyond the Horizon.

PubMed

Jackson, John W; Schmid, Ian; Stuart, Elizabeth A

2017-12-01

Propensity score methods have become commonplace in pharmacoepidemiology over the past decade. Their adoption has confronted formidable obstacles that arise from pharmacoepidemiology's reliance on large healthcare databases of considerable heterogeneity and complexity. These include identifying clinically meaningful samples, defining treatment comparisons, and measuring covariates in ways that respect sound epidemiologic study design. Additional complexities involve correctly modeling treatment decisions in the face of variation in healthcare practice, and dealing with missing information and unmeasured confounding. In this review, we examine the application of propensity score methods in pharmacoepidemiology with particular attention to these and other issues, with an eye towards standards of practice, recent methodological advances, and opportunities for future progress. Propensity score methods have matured in ways that can advance comparative effectiveness and safety research in pharmacoepidemiology. These include natural extensions for categorical treatments, matching algorithms that can optimize sample size given design constraints, weighting estimators that asymptotically target matched and overlap samples, and the incorporation of machine learning to aid in covariate selection and model building. These recent and encouraging advances should be further evaluated through simulation and empirical studies, but nonetheless represent a bright path ahead for the observational study of treatment benefits and harms.

Seeing and liking cigarette advertisements: is there a 'mere exposure' effect?.

PubMed

Morgenstern, Matthis; Isensee, Barbara; Hanewinkel, Reiner

2013-01-01

We aimed to explain the association between exposure to a cigarette advertisement and favorable attitudes towards the advertisement. We used data from an observational cross-sectional study with a sample of 3,415 German schoolchildren aged 10-17 years. Cigarette advertising exposure was assessed with an image of a Marlboro ad, asking for contact frequency (number of times seen the ad) and brand name. Liking of the ad was measured with two items (alpha = 0.78). We found a positive linear association between exposure to the Marlboro ad and liking it. This association remained significant (standardized β = 0.09; p < 0.001) even after statistical control for smoking status, smoking of friends and parents, attitudes towards smoking in general, cigarette advertising receptivity (having a favorite cigarette ad), exposure to other advertisings, age, sex, socioeconomic status, rebelliousness and sensation seeking, self-reported school performance, and study region. The association between exposure to an advertisement and liking it was robust and could not be fully explained without referring to either unmeasured confounding or implicit advertising effects (e.g. mere exposure). Implicit effects have implications for prevention strategies as it may be very difficult to counteract unconscious advertising effects. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The influence of alexithymia on mobile phone addiction: The role of depression, anxiety and stress.

PubMed

Gao, Tingting; Li, Jiaomeng; Zhang, Han; Gao, Jinglei; Kong, Yixi; Hu, Yueyang; Mei, Songli

2018-01-01

Alexithymia is an important predictor of mobile phone addiction. Enhancing and improving college students' mental health can reduce the rate of mobile phone addiction. However, it is not clear about the role of depression, anxiety and stress in the relationship between college students' alexithymia and mobile phone addiction. A total of 1105 college students were tested with the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale and the Mobile Phone Addiction Index. An individual's level of alexithymia was significantly correlated with depression, anxiety, stress and mobile phone addiction. Alexithymia had a significantly positive prediction effect on mobile phone addiction, and depression, anxiety, and stress on mobile phone are positive predictors. Depression, anxiety or stress had partially mediating effects between alexithymia and mobile phone addiction. Alexithymia not only directly had a positively impact on mobile phone addiction, but both also had an indirect effect on mobile phone addiction through depression, anxiety or stress. Limitations included sampling method and modest sample size, self-report measures, and unmeasured potential confounders. Alexithymia is an important correlate of mobile phone addiction, and depression, anxiety or stress is an important mediator in this relationship. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of Instrumental Variable Bounds for Data Missing Not at Random.

PubMed

Marden, Jessica R; Wang, Linbo; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Walter, Stefan; Glymour, M Maria; Wirth, Kathleen E

2018-05-01

Instrumental variables are routinely used to recover a consistent estimator of an exposure causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Instrumental variable approaches to account for nonignorable missing data also exist but are less familiar to epidemiologists. Like instrumental variables for exposure causal effects, instrumental variables for missing data rely on exclusion restriction and instrumental variable relevance assumptions. Yet these two conditions alone are insufficient for point identification. For estimation, researchers have invoked a third assumption, typically involving fairly restrictive parametric constraints. Inferences can be sensitive to these parametric assumptions, which are typically not empirically testable. The purpose of our article is to discuss another approach for leveraging a valid instrumental variable. Although the approach is insufficient for nonparametric identification, it can nonetheless provide informative inferences about the presence, direction, and magnitude of selection bias, without invoking a third untestable parametric assumption. An important contribution of this article is an Excel spreadsheet tool that can be used to obtain empirical evidence of selection bias and calculate bounds and corresponding Bayesian 95% credible intervals for a nonidentifiable population proportion. For illustrative purposes, we used the spreadsheet tool to analyze HIV prevalence data collected by the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).

Gains in income during early childhood are associated with decreases in BMI z scores among children in the United States.

PubMed

Oddo, Vanessa M; Jones-Smith, Jessica C

2015-06-01

Evidence suggests that changes in family income are an important determinant of children's body mass index (BMI). However, few studies have leveraged longitudinal data to investigate the association of changes in family income on changes in BMI z score. This study aimed to assess whether gains in family income are associated with changes in BMI z score among children in the United States by using the nationally representative Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). We used longitudinal data from the ECLS-B to assess whether gains in family income, assessed by using the poverty to income ratio (PIR), were associated with changes in BMI z score among children aged 2-6 y. Child anthropometric characteristics and family income were assessed at 2-y, 4-y, 5-y, and 6-y visits. Sex-stratified, individual fixed-effects linear regression models compared children with themselves over time to control for time-invariant measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Models also controlled for time-varying confounders, including number of siblings, household structure (2 parents, one parent, or unrelated guardian), age, and age squared. Children (n = ~9200) had a mean ± SE change in BMI z score of 0.12 ± 0.022, and family income increased by ~$3361 ± $536 during the 4-y period of observation (2003-2007). The association between increased PIR and change in BMI z score varied by sex but not by race-ethnicity. Among girls, an increase in PIR was associated with a statistically significant decrease in BMI z score (βPIR = -0.022; 95% CI: -0.042, -0.0016). There was a statistically significant association between PIR and BMI z score among preterm boys (βPIR + β PIRXpreterm = -0.067; 95% CI: -0.12, -0.018), but the relation was not statistically significant among boys born at term (βPIR = -0.0049; 95% CI: -0.024, 0.014). By comparing children with themselves over time, we overcome many barriers that typically impede causal inference in observational studies. In this way, our study provides stronger evidence that gains in income during early childhood may promote healthy weight outcomes among girls. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models

PubMed Central

Mare, Robert D.

2014-01-01

Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined “bias”) and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters – yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted “corrections” for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation. PMID:24882915

Introduction to symposium on unmeasured heterogeneity in school transition models.

PubMed

Mare, Robert D

2011-09-01

Researchers have used models of school transitions for over 30 years to describe inequality of educational opportunity and have contributed a number of important refinements and extensions. School transition models have the complication that the estimated effects of family background on the probability of continuing in school are affected by differential attrition on unobserved factors at earlier stages of schooling. The articles in this symposium present a variety of useful approaches to unobserved heterogeneity in school transition models. Investigators who use these approaches should attend to several issues: (1) models for school transitions may be used both descriptively (and are not therefore subject to any well-defined "bias") and as tools for causal inference. (2) The concept of bias presupposes an underlying experiment, structural model, or population model that would, in principle, define the corresponding unbiased parameters - yet these underlying models are difficult to specify for school transition models. (3) Unobserved determinants of whether individuals make school transitions may be both exogenous and endogenous with respect to the observed regressors in the model. Without a model of how unobserved heterogeneity arises, attempted "corrections" for unmeasured heterogeneity may yield misleading estimates of the effects of measured determinants of school continuation.

Hypothetical midlife interventions in women and risk of type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Pan, An; Hu, Frank B; Hernán, Miguel A

2013-01-01

Randomized trials have examined short-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention only among high-risk individuals. Prospective studies have examined the associations between lifestyle factors and diabetes in healthy populations but have not characterized the intervention. We estimated the long-term effects of hypothetical lifestyle interventions on diabetes in a prospective study of healthy women, using the parametric g-formula. Using data from the Nurses' Health Study, we followed 76,402 women from 1984 to 2008. We estimated the risk of type 2 diabetes under eight hypothetical interventions: quitting smoking, losing weight by 5% every 2 years if overweight/obese, exercising at least 30 minutes a day, eating less than three servings a week of red meat, eating at least two servings a day of whole grain, drinking two or more cups of coffee a day, drinking five or more grams of alcohol a day, and drinking less than one serving of soda a week. The 24-year risk of diabetes was 9.6% under no intervention and 4.3% when all interventions were imposed (55% lower risk [95% confidence interval = 47 to 63%]). The most effective interventions were weight loss (24% lower risk), physical activity (19%), and moderate alcohol use (19%). Overweight/obese women would benefit the most, with 10.8 percentage point reduction in 24-year risk of diabetes. The validity of these estimates relies on the absence of unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification. A combination of dietary and nondietary lifestyle modifications, begun in midlife or later in relatively healthy women, could have prevented at least half of the cases of type 2 diabetes in this cohort of U.S. women.

Systemic treatment in advanced biliary cancers: A multicenter Australian analysis and review.

PubMed

Brungs, Daniel; Aghmesheh, Morteza; Sjoquist, Katrin; Goldstein, David

2017-10-01

While first-line palliative chemotherapy (CT1) improves survival and quality of life in advanced biliary cancer (ABC), there is no randomized evidence to support second-line chemotherapy (CT2) in ABC. We aim to explore to role of CT2 in ABC. We performed a retrospective review of all patients who received one or more lines of chemotherapy for ABC at four Australian cancer centers between 2008 and 2011. A Cox proportional hazard model was developed to determine the impact of clinicopathologic variables on overall survival (OS) from time of progression on CT1. We identified 73 patients who received palliative chemotherapy for ABC. Twenty-five patients (34%) received two or more lines of chemotherapy. Patients with a preserved performance status on progression on first-line chemotherapy (CT1) were more likely to receive second-line chemotherapy (CT2) (P < 0.001). Disease control rate with CT2 was 36%, and mean progression-free survival was 3.2 months (95% confidence interval 1.5-4.9 months). The following variables were significant in the univariate analysis of OS from time of progression on CT1: lines of chemotherapy (P = 0.0001), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status at progression on CT1 (P < 0.0001) and disease control with CT1 (P = 0.027). Lines of chemotherapy received and performance status remained significant in the multivariate analysis for OS from progression on CT1. Second-line chemotherapy is feasible in a subset of patients with ABC. Even after accounting for confounding variables, CT2 appears to increase OS in ABC, although we are unable to exclude other unmeasured factors such as tumor biology. These findings warrant further evaluation with prospective trials. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Survival on Home Dialysis in New Zealand

PubMed Central

Marshall, Mark R.; Walker, Rachael C.; Polkinghorne, Kevan R.; Lynn, Kelvin L.

2014-01-01

Background New Zealand (NZ) has a high prevalence of both peritoneal dialysis (PD) and home haemodialysis (HD) relative to other countries, and probably less selection bias. We aimed to determine if home dialysis associates with better survival than facility HD by simultaneous comparisons of the three modalities. Methods We analysed survival by time-varying dialysis modality in New Zealanders over a 15-year period to 31-Dec-2011, adjusting for patient co-morbidity by Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression. Results We modelled 6,419 patients with 3,254 deaths over 20,042 patient-years of follow-up. Patients treated with PD and facility HD are similar; those on home HD are younger and healthier. Compared to facility HD, home dialysis (as a unified category) associates with an overall 13% lower mortality risk. Home HD associates with a 52% lower mortality risk. PD associates with a 20% lower mortality risk in the early period (<3 years) that is offset by a 33% greater mortality risk in the late period (>3 years), with no overall net effect. There was effect modification and less observable benefit associated with PD in those with diabetes mellitus, co-morbidity, and in NZ Maori and Pacific People. There was no effect modification by age or by era. Conclusion Our study supports the culture of home dialysis in NZ, and suggests that the extent and duration of survival benefit associated with early PD may be greater than appreciated. We are planning further analyses to exclude residual confounding from unmeasured co-morbidity and other sociodemographic factors using database linkage to NZ government datasets. Finally, our results suggest further research into the practice of PD in NZ Maori and Pacific People, as well as definitive study to determine the best timing for switching from PD in the late phase. PMID:24806458

Paternal and maternal obesity but not gestational weight gain is associated with type 1 diabetes

PubMed Central

Magnus, Maria C; Olsen, Sjurdur F; Granstrom, Charlotta; Lund-Blix, Nicolai A; Svensson, Jannet; Johannesen, Jesper; Fraser, Abigail; Skrivarhaug, Torild; Joner, Geir; Njølstad, Pål R; Størdal, Ketil; Stene, Lars C

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Our objective was to examine the associations of parental body mass index (BMI) and maternal gestational weight gain with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. Comparing the associations of maternal and paternal BMI with type 1 diabetes in the offspring will provide further insight into the role of unmeasured confounding by characteristics linked to BMI in both parents. Methods We studied 132 331 children participating in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) who were born between February 1998 and July 2009. Exposures of interest included parental BMI and maternal gestational weight gain obtained by maternal report. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression to examine the risk of type 1 diabetes (n=499 cases), which was ascertained by national childhood diabetes registers. Results The incidence of type 1 diabetes was 32.7 per 100 000 person-years in MoBa and 28.5 per 100 000 person-years in DNBC. Both maternal pre-pregnancy obesity, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.89] and paternal obesity, adjusted HR 1.51 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.04), were associated with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. The associations were similar after mutual adjustment. In contrast, maternal total gestational weight gain was not associated with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes, adjusted HR 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.02) per kilogram increase. Conclusions Our study suggests that the association between maternal obesity and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes is not likely explained by intrauterine mechanisms, but possibly rather by unknown environmental factors influencing BMI in the family. PMID:29415279

Grandmother's smoking when pregnant with the mother and asthma in the grandchild: the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study.

PubMed

Magnus, Maria C; Håberg, Siri E; Karlstad, Øystein; Nafstad, Per; London, Stephanie J; Nystad, Wenche

2015-03-01

A trans-generational influence of prenatal tobacco smoke exposure on asthma development has been proposed but the evidence remains sparse. We examined the grandmother's smoking when pregnant with the mother in relation to asthma outcomes in the grandchild (current asthma at 36 months (N=53 169, cases=3013), current asthma at 7 years (N=25 394, cases=1265) and dispensed asthma medications at 7 years in the Norwegian Prescription Database (N=45 607, cases=1787)) within the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). We calculated adjusted RR (adj. RR) and 95% CIs using log binomial regression. A total of 23.5% of mothers reported that their mother smoked when pregnant with them. The grandmother's smoking when pregnant with the mother was positively associated with asthma at 36 months (adj. RR 1.15 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.24)), asthma at 7 years (adj. RR 1.21 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.37)) and dispensed asthma medications at 7 years (adj. RR 1.15 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.26)). This positive association did not differ significantly by the mother's smoking status when pregnant with the child (p values for multiplicative interaction >0.1). The grandmother's smoking when pregnant with the mother increased the risk of asthma in the grandchild independent of the mother's smoking status. However, given limited information on the grandmother's socioeconomic status, asthma status and other factors, unmeasured confounding may be present. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Long-term consequences of childhood ADHD on criminal activities.

PubMed

Fletcher, Jason; Wolfe, Barbara

2009-09-01

Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most prevalent mental health problems facing children. Little is known of the long-term consequences of ADHD on young adult outcomes. We examine the associations between childhood ADHD symptoms and criminal activities as a young adult. We use a nationally representative study of US adolescents and logistic regression analysis to examine our research question. We also control for common family factors using sibling random and fixed effects and test the robustness of our results in several ways. The empirical estimates show that children who experience ADHD symptoms face a substantially increased likelihood of engaging in many types of criminal activities. An included calculation of the social costs associated with criminal activities by individuals with childhood ADHD finds the costs to be substantial. Our study provides the first evidence using a nationally representative dataset of the long term consequences on criminal activities of childhood ADHD. Our results are quite robust to a number of specification checks. Limitations of our study include that our measures of ADHD are retrospective, we have no information on treatment for ADHD, and it remains possible that our results are confounded by unmeasured variables. Our results suggest that children showing ADHD symptoms should be viewed as a group at high risk of poor outcomes as young adults. As such, a good case can be made for targeting intervention programs on this group of children and conducting evaluations to learn if such interventions are effective in reducing the probability that these children commit a crime. Development of such intervention programs and evaluating them for efficiency could be dollars well spent in terms of crime and drug abuse averted.

Head circumference at birth and childhood developmental disorders in a nationwide cohort in Denmark.

PubMed

Aagaard, Kristina; Bach, Cathrine Carlsen; Henriksen, Tine Brink; Larsen, René Tidemand; Matthiesen, Niels Bjerregård

2018-06-08

Early markers of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) may improve the understanding and early recognition of these disorders. We aimed to estimate the association between head circumference at birth, a measure of cerebral size at birth, and the risk of ADHD and ASD. We present a register-based cohort study of all Danish singletons born alive between 1997 and 2013. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for the statistical analyses. Sibling-matched analyses were performed to account for unmeasured confounding shared by siblings. The analyses included 986 909 new-borns. Compared to normocephalic children, microcephaly was associated with an increased risk of ADHD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 1.32). Macrocephaly was associated with a decreased risk of ADHD (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 0.99). Neither microcephaly nor macrocephaly were associated with ASD (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.94, 1.19 and 1.03, 95% CI 0.90, 1.19). The largest difference was found within the normocephalic children. A head circumference at the lower limit of normocephaly compared to a head circumference at the upper limit was associated with an increased risk of ADHD (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.43, 1.63). The sibling analyses confirmed the increased risk of ADHD with decreasing head circumference in the normocephalic children. No other clear associations were present in the sibling analyses. Within normocephalic children, smaller head circumference at birth was associated with a higher risk of ADHD. Restricted foetal brain growth may be a risk factor for the development of ADHD but not ASD. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An instrumental variable approach finds no associated harm or benefit from early dialysis initiation in the United States

PubMed Central

Scialla, Julia J.; Liu, Jiannong; Crews, Deidra C.; Guo, Haifeng; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Ephraim, Patti L.; Tangri, Navdeep; Sozio, Stephen M.; Shafi, Tariq; Miskulin, Dana C.; Michels, Wieneke M.; Jaar, Bernard G.; Wu, Albert W.; Powe, Neil R.; Boulware, L. Ebony

2014-01-01

The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis initiation has been rising. Observational studies suggest harm, but may be confounded by unmeasured factors. As instrumental variable methods may be less biased we performed a retrospective cohort study of 310,932 patients starting dialysis between 2006 to 2008 and registered in the United States Renal Data System in order to describe geographic variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation and determine its association with mortality. Patients were grouped into 804 health service areas by zip code. Individual eGFR at dialysis initiation averaged 10.8 ml/min/1.73m2 but varied geographically. Only 11% of the variation in mean health service areas-level eGFR at dialysis initiation was accounted for by patient characteristics. We calculated demographic-adjusted mean eGFR at dialysis initiation in the health service areas using the 2006 and 2007 incident cohort as our instrument and estimated the association between individual eGFR at dialysis initiation and mortality in the 2008 incident cohort using the 2 stage residual inclusion method. Among 89,547 patients starting dialysis in 2008 with eGFR 5 to 20 ml/min/1.73m2, eGFR at initiation was not associated with mortality over a median of 15.5 months [hazard ratio 1.025 per 1 ml/min/1.73m2 for eGFR 5 to 14 ml/min/1.73m2; and 0.973 per 1 ml/min/1.73m2 for eGFR 14 to 20 ml/min/1.73m2]. Thus, there was no associated harm or benefit from early dialysis initiation in the United States. PMID:24786707

Influence of neighbourhood ethnic density, diet and physical activity on ethnic differences in weight status: a study of 214,807 adults in Australia.

PubMed

Astell-Burt, Thomas; Feng, Xiaoqi; Croteau, Karen; Kolt, Gregory S

2013-09-01

We investigated whether ethnic and country of birth differences in adult Body Mass Index (BMI) were associated with differences in diet, physical activity and ethnic density (the percentage of an ethnic group within the neighbourhood environment). A sample of 214,807 adults living in Australia was extracted from the 45 and Up Study. Analyses comprised multilevel modelling of BMI for 38 ethnic and country of birth groups. Physical activity was ascertained using the Active Australia Survey. Dietary measures included self-reported consumption of fruit, vegetables, meat and cheese. Ethnic density was objectively measured using 2006 Australian Census data. Possible confounders included age, gender, household income, educational qualifications, economic status, couple status, language, duration of residence, neighbourhood affluence and remoteness. Compared to Australian-born Australians (age-gender adjusted mean BMI = 27.1, 95%CI 27.1, 27.2), overseas-born groups often had lower mean BMI, especially the Chinese born in China (23.2, 23.0, 23.4). Exceptions included the Italians (BMI = 28.1), Greeks (28.5), Maltese (27.6), Lebanese (28.4) and Croatians (27.8) born in their ethnic-country of origin. Regardless of birthplace, BMI was lower for the English, Scottish, and Chinese, but higher for Italians and Greeks. Some ethnic differences reflected the 'healthy migrant' hypothesis, whereas others did not. These differences were only partially attenuated by controls for portions of fruit and vegetables, meat and cheese, frequency of participation in physical activity, and other explanatory variables. Ethnic density was associated with lower BMI for the English and Irish (p < 0.05), regardless of whether they were born in the UK, Ireland, or Australia. Ethnic differences in adult weight status in Australia do not appear to be fully explained by conventional risk factors. For some groups, but not all, living among others of the same ethnic group may proxy unmeasured health-promoting factors and these contexts, along with other factors that harm health (e.g. racial discrimination) warrant further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal experimental design in an epidermal growth factor receptor signalling and down-regulation model.

PubMed

Casey, F P; Baird, D; Feng, Q; Gutenkunst, R N; Waterfall, J J; Myers, C R; Brown, K S; Cerione, R A; Sethna, J P

2007-05-01

We apply the methods of optimal experimental design to a differential equation model for epidermal growth factor receptor signalling, trafficking and down-regulation. The model incorporates the role of a recently discovered protein complex made up of the E3 ubiquitin ligase, Cbl, the guanine exchange factor (GEF), Cool-1 (beta -Pix) and the Rho family G protein Cdc42. The complex has been suggested to be important in disrupting receptor down-regulation. We demonstrate that the model interactions can accurately reproduce the experimental observations, that they can be used to make predictions with accompanying uncertainties, and that we can apply ideas of optimal experimental design to suggest new experiments that reduce the uncertainty on unmeasurable components of the system.

Strong ion calculator--a practical bedside application of modern quantitative acid-base physiology.

PubMed

Lloyd, P

2004-12-01

To review acid-base balance by considering the physical effects of ions in solution and describe the use of a calculator to derive the strong ion difference and Atot and strong ion gap. A review of articles reporting on the use of strong ion difference and Atot in the interpretation of acid base balance. Tremendous progress has been made in the last decade in our understanding of acid-base physiology. We now have a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms underlying the acidity of an aqueous solution. We can now predict the acidity given information about the concentration of the various ion-forming species within it. We can predict changes in acid-base status caused by disturbance of these factors, and finally, we can detect unmeasured anions with greater sensitivity than was previously possible with the anion gap, using either arterial or venous blood sampling. Acid-base interpretation has ceased to be an intuitive and arcane art. Much of it is now an exact computation that can be automated and incorporated into an online hospital laboratory information system. All diseases and all therapies can affect a patient's acid-base status only through the final common pathway of one or more of the three independent factors. With Constable's equations we can now accurately predict the acidity of plasma. When there is a discrepancy between the observed and predicted acidity we can deduce the net concentration of unmeasured ions to account for the difference.

Formation tracker design of multiple mobile robots with wheel perturbations: adaptive output-feedback approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Sung Jin

2016-11-01

This paper presents a theoretical design approach for output-feedback formation tracking of multiple mobile robots under wheel perturbations. It is assumed that these perturbations are unknown and the linear and angular velocities of the robots are unmeasurable. First, adaptive state observers for estimating unmeasurable velocities of the robots are developed under the robots' kinematics and dynamics including wheel perturbation effects. Then, we derive a virtual-structure-based formation tracker scheme according to the observer dynamic surface design procedure. The main difficulty of the output-feedback control design is to manage the coupling problems between unmeasurable velocities and unknown wheel perturbation effects. These problems are avoided by using the adaptive technique and the function approximation property based on fuzzy logic systems. From the Lyapunov stability analysis, it is shown that point tracking errors of each robot and synchronisation errors for the desired formation converge to an adjustable neighbourhood of the origin, while all signals in the controlled closed-loop system are semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded.

Quantification of confounding factors in MRI-based dose calculations as applied to prostate IMRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maspero, Matteo; Seevinck, Peter R.; Schubert, Gerald; Hoesl, Michaela A. U.; van Asselen, Bram; Viergever, Max A.; Lagendijk, Jan J. W.; Meijer, Gert J.; van den Berg, Cornelis A. T.

2017-02-01

Magnetic resonance (MR)-only radiotherapy treatment planning requires pseudo-CT (pCT) images to enable MR-based dose calculations. To verify the accuracy of MR-based dose calculations, institutions interested in introducing MR-only planning will have to compare pCT-based and computer tomography (CT)-based dose calculations. However, interpreting such comparison studies may be challenging, since potential differences arise from a range of confounding factors which are not necessarily specific to MR-only planning. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify and quantify the contribution of factors confounding dosimetric accuracy estimation in comparison studies between CT and pCT. The following factors were distinguished: set-up and positioning differences between imaging sessions, MR-related geometric inaccuracy, pCT generation, use of specific calibration curves to convert pCT into electron density information, and registration errors. The study comprised fourteen prostate cancer patients who underwent CT/MRI-based treatment planning. To enable pCT generation, a commercial solution (MRCAT, Philips Healthcare, Vantaa, Finland) was adopted. IMRT plans were calculated on CT (gold standard) and pCTs. Dose difference maps in a high dose region (CTV) and in the body volume were evaluated, and the contribution to dose errors of possible confounding factors was individually quantified. We found that the largest confounding factor leading to dose difference was the use of different calibration curves to convert pCT and CT into electron density (0.7%). The second largest factor was the pCT generation which resulted in pCT stratified into a fixed number of tissue classes (0.16%). Inter-scan differences due to patient repositioning, MR-related geometric inaccuracy, and registration errors did not significantly contribute to dose differences (0.01%). The proposed approach successfully identified and quantified the factors confounding accurate MRI-based dose calculation in the prostate. This study will be valuable for institutions interested in introducing MR-only dose planning in their clinical practice.

An independent component analysis confounding factor correction framework for identifying broad impact expression quantitative trait loci

PubMed Central

Ju, Jin Hyun; Crystal, Ronald G.

2017-01-01

Genome-wide expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) studies in humans have provided numerous insights into the genetics of both gene expression and complex diseases. While the majority of eQTL identified in genome-wide analyses impact a single gene, eQTL that impact many genes are particularly valuable for network modeling and disease analysis. To enable the identification of such broad impact eQTL, we introduce CONFETI: Confounding Factor Estimation Through Independent component analysis. CONFETI is designed to address two conflicting issues when searching for broad impact eQTL: the need to account for non-genetic confounding factors that can lower the power of the analysis or produce broad impact eQTL false positives, and the tendency of methods that account for confounding factors to model broad impact eQTL as non-genetic variation. The key advance of the CONFETI framework is the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify variation likely caused by broad impact eQTL when constructing the sample covariance matrix used for the random effect in a mixed model. We show that CONFETI has better performance than other mixed model confounding factor methods when considering broad impact eQTL recovery from synthetic data. We also used the CONFETI framework and these same confounding factor methods to identify eQTL that replicate between matched twin pair datasets in the Multiple Tissue Human Expression Resource (MuTHER), the Depression Genes Networks study (DGN), the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA), and multiple tissue types in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) consortium. These analyses identified both cis-eQTL and trans-eQTL impacting individual genes, and CONFETI had better or comparable performance to other mixed model confounding factor analysis methods when identifying such eQTL. In these analyses, we were able to identify and replicate a few broad impact eQTL although the overall number was small even when applying CONFETI. In light of these results, we discuss the broad impact eQTL that have been previously reported from the analysis of human data and suggest that considerable caution should be exercised when making biological inferences based on these reported eQTL. PMID:28505156

An independent component analysis confounding factor correction framework for identifying broad impact expression quantitative trait loci.

PubMed

Ju, Jin Hyun; Shenoy, Sushila A; Crystal, Ronald G; Mezey, Jason G

2017-05-01

Genome-wide expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) studies in humans have provided numerous insights into the genetics of both gene expression and complex diseases. While the majority of eQTL identified in genome-wide analyses impact a single gene, eQTL that impact many genes are particularly valuable for network modeling and disease analysis. To enable the identification of such broad impact eQTL, we introduce CONFETI: Confounding Factor Estimation Through Independent component analysis. CONFETI is designed to address two conflicting issues when searching for broad impact eQTL: the need to account for non-genetic confounding factors that can lower the power of the analysis or produce broad impact eQTL false positives, and the tendency of methods that account for confounding factors to model broad impact eQTL as non-genetic variation. The key advance of the CONFETI framework is the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify variation likely caused by broad impact eQTL when constructing the sample covariance matrix used for the random effect in a mixed model. We show that CONFETI has better performance than other mixed model confounding factor methods when considering broad impact eQTL recovery from synthetic data. We also used the CONFETI framework and these same confounding factor methods to identify eQTL that replicate between matched twin pair datasets in the Multiple Tissue Human Expression Resource (MuTHER), the Depression Genes Networks study (DGN), the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA), and multiple tissue types in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) consortium. These analyses identified both cis-eQTL and trans-eQTL impacting individual genes, and CONFETI had better or comparable performance to other mixed model confounding factor analysis methods when identifying such eQTL. In these analyses, we were able to identify and replicate a few broad impact eQTL although the overall number was small even when applying CONFETI. In light of these results, we discuss the broad impact eQTL that have been previously reported from the analysis of human data and suggest that considerable caution should be exercised when making biological inferences based on these reported eQTL.

Confounding by dietary pattern of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome this limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Quantifying acoustic doppler current profiler discharge uncertainty: A Monte Carlo based tool for moving-boat measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David S.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a method using Monte Carlo simulations for assessing uncertainty of moving-boat acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements using a software tool known as QUant, which was developed for this purpose. Analysis was performed on 10 data sets from four Water Survey of Canada gauging stations in order to evaluate the relative contribution of a range of error sources to the total estimated uncertainty. The factors that differed among data sets included the fraction of unmeasured discharge relative to the total discharge, flow nonuniformity, and operator decisions about instrument programming and measurement cross section. As anticipated, it was found that the estimated uncertainty is dominated by uncertainty of the discharge in the unmeasured areas, highlighting the importance of appropriate selection of the site, the instrument, and the user inputs required to estimate the unmeasured discharge. The main contributor to uncertainty was invalid data, but spatial inhomogeneity in water velocity and bottom-track velocity also contributed, as did variation in the edge velocity, uncertainty in the edge distances, edge coefficients, and the top and bottom extrapolation methods. To a lesser extent, spatial inhomogeneity in the bottom depth also contributed to the total uncertainty, as did uncertainty in the ADCP draft at shallow sites. The estimated uncertainties from QUant can be used to assess the adequacy of standard operating procedures. They also provide quantitative feedback to the ADCP operators about the quality of their measurements, indicating which parameters are contributing most to uncertainty, and perhaps even highlighting ways in which uncertainty can be reduced. Additionally, QUant can be used to account for self-dependent error sources such as heading errors, which are a function of heading. The results demonstrate the importance of a Monte Carlo method tool such as QUant for quantifying random and bias errors when evaluating the uncertainty of moving-boat ADCP measurements.

Developing hazelnut tissue culture medium free of ion confounding

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The general approach for tissue culture medium optimization is to use salts as factors in experimental design and analysis. However, using salts as factors leads to ion confounding, making it difficult to detect the effects of individual ions on particular growth responses. This study focused on tes...

What Is Going on Inside the Arrows? Discovering the Hidden Springs in Causal Models

PubMed Central

Murray-Watters, Alexander; Glymour, Clark

2016-01-01

Using Gebharter's (2014) representation, we consider aspects of the problem of discovering the structure of unmeasured sub-mechanisms when the variables in those sub-mechanisms have not been measured. Exploiting an early insight of Sober's (1998), we provide a correct algorithm for identifying latent, endogenous structure—sub-mechanisms—for a restricted class of structures. The algorithm can be merged with other methods for discovering causal relations among unmeasured variables, and feedback relations between measured variables and unobserved causes can sometimes be learned. PMID:27313331

Correlates of social behavior change communication on care-seeking behaviors for children with fever: an analysis of malaria household survey data from Liberia.

PubMed

Awantang, Grace; Babalola, Stella; Koenker, Hannah; Fox, Kathleen; Toso, Michael; Lewicky, Nan; Somah, Daniel; Koko, Victor

2018-03-07

In 2010, malaria was responsible for an estimated 41% of deaths among children under the age of five years in Liberia. The same year, the Rebuilding Basic Health Services Project launched "Healthy Baby, Happy Mother," a social and behavior change communication campaign. The campaign encouraged caregivers to take children under the age of five years to a health facility as soon as children developed fever. This study investigated correlates of two case management outcomes: care-seeking for children under five with fever during the past two weeks and administration of an artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) the same or next day as fever onset. Data from a 2014 cross-sectional household survey from four counties was used to investigate correlates of two case management outcomes. Using multilevel analysis, the association between these outcomes and a caregiver's recall of the campaign, her sociodemographic characteristics, and unmeasured characteristics of the community she lived in was investigated. Caregivers living in Grand Kru County were less likely (OR = 0.21, 95% CI 0.073, 0.632) to take a child to a health facility than those in Bong County. Caregiver recall of the campaign was positively associated with the odds that a child received an ACT promptly (OR 3.62, 95% CI 1.398-9.372), but not with the odds of a caregiver taking a child in their care to a health facility. While unmeasured community-level factors accounted for 19.0% of the variation in the odds that a caregiver's child was brought to a health facility, they did not play a role in the odds of prompt ACT treatment. Recalling the "Healthy Mother, Happy Baby" campaign was positively associated with the odds that children received ACT promptly, even in the absence of other malaria prevention and treatment messaging. While caregiver exposure was not associated with care-seeking during the two weeks before interview, prompt care-seeking likely preceded prompt receipt of ACT since most ACT came from health facilities. Unmeasured community-level factors, such as distance from the health facility, may play a role in determining the odds that a caregiver takes a child to a health facility.

Effects of Age at First Childbirth and Other Factors on Central Obesity in Postmenopausal Women: The 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

PubMed Central

Lee, Wang Jin; Lee, Joo Ha; Kwag, Byoung Gyu; Chang, Shin Hae; Choi, Yu Jin

2018-01-01

Background Waist circumference is one of the key components of metabolic syndrome. Recent studies demonstrated that the reproductive profile was associated with metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women. This study focused on the association between central obesity and age at first childbirth. It also considered other factors associated with central obesity in postmenopausal women. Methods This study was based on the 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and involved 3,143 naturally postmenopausal women. These women were divided into three groups according to their age at first childbirth: 19 years or younger (n=252), 20–29 years (n=2,695), and 30 years or older (n=196). Multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to evaluate the effects of various reproductive factors, including other confounding factors. Results During adjustment for confounding factors, in the early age at first childbirth group, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for central obesity decreased. In the final model, younger age at first childbirth was not significantly related to central obesity (waist circumference more than 85 cm) in naturally postmenopausal women after adjusting for other confounding factors. Conclusion Younger age at first childbirth was not significantly associated with central obesity after adjustment for confounding factors. PMID:29788703

Human Health and Exposure to Electromagnetic Radiation

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-07-01

electromagnetic field exposures and cancer. Studies of electrical and electronic workers are suggestive of such a link, but are subject to the confounding factor ...associations between cancer and electrical installations 108 51 Factors associated with increased risk of childhood cancer in the Denver studies 109 52...It is important in epidemiological studies to make Arenuous efforts to adjust for possible confounding factors , many - in particular the early

Trimodel Mammography with Perfect Coregistration

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

background, the major confounding factor in reading mammography; the imaging characteristics suggest that this contrast mechanism would be preferable...image with enhanced edges and reduced anatomical background, the major confounding factor in reading mammography; the imaging characteristics suggest...subjects, vertebrate animals , biohazards, and/or select agents Describe significant deviations, unexpected outcomes, or changes in approved protocols

Epidemiologic methods in clinical trials.

PubMed

Rothman, K J

1977-04-01

Epidemiologic methods developed to control confounding in non-experimental studies are equally applicable for experiments. In experiments, most confounding is usually controlled by random allocation of subjects to treatment groups, but randomization does not preclude confounding except for extremely large studies, the degree of confounding expected being inversely related to the size of the treatment groups. In experiments, as in non-experimental studies, the extent of confounding for each risk indicator should be assessed, and if sufficiently large, controlled. Confounding is properly assessed by comparing the unconfounded effect estimate to the crude effect estimate; a common error is to assess confounding by statistical tests of significance. Assessment of confounding involves its control as a prerequisite. Control is most readily and cogently achieved by stratification of the data, though with many factors to control simultaneously, multivariate analysis or a combination of multivariate analysis and stratification might be necessary.

Conditional Random Fields for Fast, Large-Scale Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Huang, Jim C.; Meek, Christopher; Kadie, Carl; Heckerman, David

2011-01-01

Understanding the role of genetic variation in human diseases remains an important problem to be solved in genomics. An important component of such variation consist of variations at single sites in DNA, or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Typically, the problem of associating particular SNPs to phenotypes has been confounded by hidden factors such as the presence of population structure, family structure or cryptic relatedness in the sample of individuals being analyzed. Such confounding factors lead to a large number of spurious associations and missed associations. Various statistical methods have been proposed to account for such confounding factors such as linear mixed-effect models (LMMs) or methods that adjust data based on a principal components analysis (PCA), but these methods either suffer from low power or cease to be tractable for larger numbers of individuals in the sample. Here we present a statistical model for conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that accounts for such confounding factors. Our method scales in runtime quadratic in the number of individuals being studied with only a modest loss in statistical power as compared to LMM-based and PCA-based methods when testing on synthetic data that was generated from a generalized LMM. Applying our method to both real and synthetic human genotype/phenotype data, we demonstrate the ability of our model to correct for confounding factors while requiring significantly less runtime relative to LMMs. We have implemented methods for fitting these models, which are available at http://www.microsoft.com/science. PMID:21765897

Comprehensive characterization of atmospheric organic carbon at a forested site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, James F.; Day, Douglas A.; Palm, Brett B.; Yatavelli, Reddy L. N.; Chan, Arthur W. H.; Kaser, Lisa; Cappellin, Luca; Hayes, Patrick L.; Cross, Eben S.; Carrasquillo, Anthony J.; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Stark, Harald; Zhao, Yunliang; Hohaus, Thorsten; Smith, James N.; Hansel, Armin; Karl, Thomas; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Thornton, Joel A.; Heald, Colette L.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kroll, Jesse H.

2017-10-01

Atmospheric organic compounds are central to key chemical processes that influence air quality, ecological health, and climate. However, longstanding difficulties in predicting important quantities such as organic aerosol formation and oxidant lifetimes indicate that our understanding of atmospheric organic chemistry is fundamentally incomplete, probably due in part to the presence of organic species that are unmeasured using standard analytical techniques. Here we present measurements of a wide range of atmospheric organic compounds--including previously unmeasured species--taken concurrently at a single site (a ponderosa pine forest during summertime) by five state-of-the-art mass spectrometric instruments. The combined data set provides a comprehensive characterization of atmospheric organic carbon, covering a wide range in chemical properties (volatility, oxidation state, and molecular size), and exhibiting no obvious measurement gaps. This enables the first construction of a measurement-based local organic budget, highlighting the high emission, deposition, and oxidation fluxes in this environment. Moreover, previously unmeasured species, including semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic species (S/IVOCs), account for one-third of the total organic carbon, and (within error) provide closure on both OH reactivity and potential secondary organic aerosol formation.

Towards Predicting Basin-Wide Invertebrate Organic Biomass and Production in Marine Sediments from a Coastal Sea

PubMed Central

Burd, Brenda J.; Macdonald, Tara A.; van Roodselaar, Albert

2012-01-01

Detailed knowledge of environmental conditions is required to understand faunal production in coastal seas with topographic and hydrographic complexity. We test the hypothesis that organic biomass and production of subtidal sediment invertebrates throughout the Strait of Georgia, west coast of Canada, can be predicted by depth, substrate type and organic flux modified to reflect lability and age of material. A basin-wide database of biological, geochemical and flux data was analysed using an empirical production/biomass (P/B) model to test this hypothesis. This analysis is unique in the spatial extent and detail of P/B and concurrent environmental measurements over a temperate coastal region. Modified organic flux was the most important predictor of organic biomass and production. Depth and substrate type were secondary modifiers. Between 69–74% of variability in biomass and production could be explained by the combined environmental factors. Organisms <1 mm were important contributors to biomass and production primarily in shallow, sandy sediments, where high P/B values were found despite low organic flux. Low biomass, production, and P/B values were found in the deep, northern basin and mainland fjords, which had silty sediments, low organic flux, low biomass of organisms <1 mm, and dominance by large, slow-growing macrofauna. In the highest organic flux and biomass areas near the Fraser River discharge, production did not increase beyond moderate flux levels. Although highly productive, this area had low P/B. Clearly, food input is insufficient to explain the complex patterns in faunal production revealed here. Additional environmental factors (depth, substrate type and unmeasured factors) are important modifiers of these patterns. Potential reasons for the above patterns are explored, along with a discussion of unmeasured factors possibly responsible for unexplained (30%) variance in biomass and production. We now have the tools for basin-wide first-order estimates of sediment invertebrate production. PMID:22792267

Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Imamura, Fumiaki; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Meigs, James B; Jacques, Paul F

2009-07-01

The ability to interpret epidemiologic observations is limited because of potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as standard risk factors and selected nutrients, the authors modeled the longitudinal association between alcohol consumption and 7-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in 2,879 healthy adults enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study (1991-2001) by Cox proportional hazard models. After adjustment for standard risk factors, consumers of > or =9.0 drinks/week had a significantly lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with abstainers (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27, 0.81). Adjustment for selected nutrients had little effect on the hazard ratio, whereas adjustment for dietary pattern variables by factor analysis significantly shifted the hazard ratio away from null (hazard ratio = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.64) by 40.0% (95% CI: 16.8, 57.0; P = 0.002). Dietary pattern variables by partial least squares showed similar results. Therefore, the observed inverse association, consistent with past studies, was confounded by dietary patterns, and this confounding was not captured by individual nutrient adjustment. The data suggest that alcohol intake, not dietary patterns associated with alcohol intake, is responsible for the observed inverse association with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk.

Direction dependence analysis: A framework to test the direction of effects in linear models with an implementation in SPSS.

PubMed

Wiedermann, Wolfgang; Li, Xintong

2018-04-16

In nonexperimental data, at least three possible explanations exist for the association of two variables x and y: (1) x is the cause of y, (2) y is the cause of x, or (3) an unmeasured confounder is present. Statistical tests that identify which of the three explanatory models fits best would be a useful adjunct to the use of theory alone. The present article introduces one such statistical method, direction dependence analysis (DDA), which assesses the relative plausibility of the three explanatory models on the basis of higher-moment information about the variables (i.e., skewness and kurtosis). DDA involves the evaluation of three properties of the data: (1) the observed distributions of the variables, (2) the residual distributions of the competing models, and (3) the independence properties of the predictors and residuals of the competing models. When the observed variables are nonnormally distributed, we show that DDA components can be used to uniquely identify each explanatory model. Statistical inference methods for model selection are presented, and macros to implement DDA in SPSS are provided. An empirical example is given to illustrate the approach. Conceptual and empirical considerations are discussed for best-practice applications in psychological data, and sample size recommendations based on previous simulation studies are provided.

Hard, harder, hardest: principal stratification, statistical identifiability, and the inherent difficulty of finding surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Wolfson, Julian; Henn, Lisa

2014-01-01

In many areas of clinical investigation there is great interest in identifying and validating surrogate endpoints, biomarkers that can be measured a relatively short time after a treatment has been administered and that can reliably predict the effect of treatment on the clinical outcome of interest. However, despite dramatic advances in the ability to measure biomarkers, the recent history of clinical research is littered with failed surrogates. In this paper, we present a statistical perspective on why identifying surrogate endpoints is so difficult. We view the problem from the framework of causal inference, with a particular focus on the technique of principal stratification (PS), an approach which is appealing because the resulting estimands are not biased by unmeasured confounding. In many settings, PS estimands are not statistically identifiable and their degree of non-identifiability can be thought of as representing the statistical difficulty of assessing the surrogate value of a biomarker. In this work, we examine the identifiability issue and present key simplifying assumptions and enhanced study designs that enable the partial or full identification of PS estimands. We also present example situations where these assumptions and designs may or may not be feasible, providing insight into the problem characteristics which make the statistical evaluation of surrogate endpoints so challenging.

Hard, harder, hardest: principal stratification, statistical identifiability, and the inherent difficulty of finding surrogate endpoints

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

In many areas of clinical investigation there is great interest in identifying and validating surrogate endpoints, biomarkers that can be measured a relatively short time after a treatment has been administered and that can reliably predict the effect of treatment on the clinical outcome of interest. However, despite dramatic advances in the ability to measure biomarkers, the recent history of clinical research is littered with failed surrogates. In this paper, we present a statistical perspective on why identifying surrogate endpoints is so difficult. We view the problem from the framework of causal inference, with a particular focus on the technique of principal stratification (PS), an approach which is appealing because the resulting estimands are not biased by unmeasured confounding. In many settings, PS estimands are not statistically identifiable and their degree of non-identifiability can be thought of as representing the statistical difficulty of assessing the surrogate value of a biomarker. In this work, we examine the identifiability issue and present key simplifying assumptions and enhanced study designs that enable the partial or full identification of PS estimands. We also present example situations where these assumptions and designs may or may not be feasible, providing insight into the problem characteristics which make the statistical evaluation of surrogate endpoints so challenging. PMID:25342953

Public Health Spending and Medicare Resource Use: A Longitudinal Analysis of U.S. Communities.

PubMed

Mays, Glen P; Mamaril, Cezar B

2017-12-01

To examine whether local expenditures for public health activities influence area-level medical spending for Medicare beneficiaries. Six census surveys of the nation's 2,900 local public health agencies were conducted between 1993 and 2013, linked with contemporaneous information on population demographics, socioeconomic characteristics, and area-level Medicare spending estimates from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. Measures derive from agency survey data and aggregated Medicare claims. A longitudinal cohort design follows the geographic areas served by local public health agencies. Multivariate, fixed-effects, and instrumental-variables regression models estimate how area-level Medicare spending changes in response to shifts in local public health spending, controlling for observed and unmeasured confounders. A 10 percent increase in local public health spending per capita was associated with 0.8 percent reduction in adjusted Medicare expenditures per person after 1 year (p < .01) and a 1.1 percent reduction after 5 years (p < .05). Estimated Medicare spending offsets were larger in communities with higher rates of poverty, lower health insurance coverage, and health professional shortages. Expanded financing for public health activities may provide an effective way of constraining Medicare spending, particularly in low-resource communities. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Associations between Sexual Abstinence Ideals, Religiosity, and Alcohol Abstinence: A Longitudinal Study of Finnish Twins

PubMed Central

Winter, Torsten; Karvonen, Sakari; Rose, Richard J.

2016-01-01

We analyzed prevalence and stability of attitudes endorsing sexual abstinence ideals from late adolescence into early adulthood and studied associations of these attitudes with religiosity and alcohol abstinence in a sexually liberal Nordic society. Our population-based sample of Finnish twins permitted comparisons of co-twins concordant for religiosity but discordant for drinking to evaluate the association of sexual abstinence ideals with alcohol abstinence, controlling for household environment. From age 17 to 24, endorsement of sexual abstinence as a romantic ideal declined from 25% to 15%. Religiosity and alcohol abstinence correlated, both separately and together, with endorsing sexual abstinence. Abstinence ideals were associated with literal belief in fundamental tenets of the Bible. The association of sexual abstinence ideals with alcohol abstinence was confirmed in within-family comparisons of co-twins discordant for drinking but concordant for religiosity. Alcohol-abstinent twins were significantly more likely than their non-alcohol-abstinent twin siblings to endorse sexual abstinence ideals; that result suggests the association of sexual abstinence ideals with abstaining from alcohol is not explained by unmeasured confounds in familial background and structure. Our longitudinal results and analyses of discordant twins suggest that attitudes toward sexual abstinence ideals are embedded within other conservative attitudes and behaviors. PMID:23301620

Food Environment and Weight Change: Does Residential Mobility Matter?

PubMed Central

Laraia, Barbara A.; Downing, Janelle M.; Zhang, Y. Tara; Dow, William H.; Kelly, Maggi; Blanchard, Samuel D.; Adler, Nancy; Schillinger, Dean; Moffet, Howard; Warton, E. Margaret; Karter, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Associations between neighborhood food environment and adult body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) derived using cross-sectional or longitudinal random-effects models may be biased due to unmeasured confounding and measurement and methodological limitations. In this study, we assessed the within-individual association between change in food environment from 2006 to 2011 and change in BMI among adults with type 2 diabetes using clinical data from the Kaiser Permanente Diabetes Registry collected from 2007 to 2011. Healthy food environment was measured using the kernel density of healthful food venues. Fixed-effects models with a 1-year-lagged BMI were estimated. Separate models were fitted for persons who moved and those who did not. Sensitivity analysis using different lag times and kernel density bandwidths were tested to establish the consistency of findings. On average, patients lost 1 pound (0.45 kg) for each standard-deviation improvement in their food environment. This relationship held for persons who remained in the same location throughout the 5-year study period but not among persons who moved. Proximity to food venues that promote nutritious foods alone may not translate into clinically meaningful diet-related health changes. Community-level policies for improving the food environment need multifaceted strategies to invoke clinically meaningful change in BMI among adult patients with diabetes. PMID:28387785

Use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Kjaersgaard, Maiken Ina Siegismund; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Howards, Penelope P; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Olsen, Jørn; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens; Christensen, Jakob

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy may increase the risk of spontaneous abortion or stillbirth. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Register based study in Denmark, 1997-2008. Participants 983 305 pregnancies identified in the Danish medical birth register and the Danish national hospital discharge register from 1 February 1997 to 31 December 2008 were linked to the Danish Register of Medicinal Product Statistics to obtain information on use of antiepileptic drugs. Main outcome measures Risk ratio of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth after use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy, estimated by using binomial regression adjusting for potential confounders of maternal age, cohabitation, income, education, history of severe mental disorder, and history of drug misuse. Results Antiepileptic drugs were used in a total of 4700 (0.5%) pregnancies. 16 out of 100 pregnant women using antiepileptics and 13 out of 100 pregnant women not using antiepileptics experienced a spontaneous abortion. After adjusting for potential confounders pregnant women using antiepileptics had a 13% higher risk of spontaneous abortions than pregnant women not using antiepileptics (adjusted risk ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.24). However, the risk of spontaneous abortion was not increased in women with an epilepsy diagnosis (0.98, 0.87 to 1.09), only in women without a diagnosis of epilepsy (1.30, 1.14 to 1.49). In an analysis including women with at least two pregnancies with discordant antiepileptic drug use (for example, use in the first pregnancy but not in the second), the adjusted hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion was 0.83 (0.69 to 1.00) for exposed pregnancies compared with unexposed pregnancies. Stillbirth was identified in 18 women who used antiepileptic drugs (unadjusted risk ratio 1.29, 0.80 to 2.10). Conclusion Among women with epilepsy and when analysing the risk in antiepileptic drug discordant pregnancies in the same woman, we found no overall association between the use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and spontaneous abortions. Therefore unmeasured confounding may explain the slight increased risk for spontaneous abortion with any antiepileptic drug use (among women both with and without epilepsy). We found no association between antiepileptic drug use during pregnancy and stillbirth, but the statistical precision was low. PMID:25150301

Use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Bech, Bodil Hammer; Kjaersgaard, Maiken Ina Siegismund; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Howards, Penelope P; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Olsen, Jørn; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens; Christensen, Jakob

2014-08-21

To determine whether use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy may increase the risk of spontaneous abortion or stillbirth. Population based cohort study. Register based study in Denmark, 1997-2008. 983,305 pregnancies identified in the Danish medical birth register and the Danish national hospital discharge register from 1 February 1997 to 31 December 2008 were linked to the Danish Register of Medicinal Product Statistics to obtain information on use of antiepileptic drugs. Risk ratio of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth after use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy, estimated by using binomial regression adjusting for potential confounders of maternal age, cohabitation, income, education, history of severe mental disorder, and history of drug misuse. Antiepileptic drugs were used in a total of 4700 (0.5%) pregnancies. 16 out of 100 pregnant women using antiepileptics and 13 out of 100 pregnant women not using antiepileptics experienced a spontaneous abortion. After adjusting for potential confounders pregnant women using antiepileptics had a 13% higher risk of spontaneous abortions than pregnant women not using antiepileptics (adjusted risk ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.24). However, the risk of spontaneous abortion was not increased in women with an epilepsy diagnosis (0.98, 0.87 to 1.09), only in women without a diagnosis of epilepsy (1.30, 1.14 to 1.49). In an analysis including women with at least two pregnancies with discordant antiepileptic drug use (for example, use in the first pregnancy but not in the second), the adjusted hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion was 0.83 (0.69 to 1.00) for exposed pregnancies compared with unexposed pregnancies. Stillbirth was identified in 18 women who used antiepileptic drugs (unadjusted risk ratio 1.29, 0.80 to 2.10). Among women with epilepsy and when analysing the risk in antiepileptic drug discordant pregnancies in the same woman, we found no overall association between the use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and spontaneous abortions. Therefore unmeasured confounding may explain the slight increased risk for spontaneous abortion with any antiepileptic drug use (among women both with and without epilepsy). We found no association between antiepileptic drug use during pregnancy and stillbirth, but the statistical precision was low. © Bech et al 2014.

Poppers, Kaposi's sarcoma, and HIV infection: empirical example of a strong confounding effect?

PubMed

Morabia, A

1995-01-01

Are there empirical examples of strong confounding effects? Textbooks usually show examples of weak confounding or use hypothetical examples of strong confounding to illustrate the paradoxical consequences of not separating out the effect of the studied exposure from that of second factor acting as a confounder. HIV infection is a candidate strong confounder of the spuriously high association reported between consumption of poppers, a sexual stimulant, and risk of Kaposi's sarcoma in the early phase of the AIDS epidemic. To examine this hypothesis, assumptions must be made on the prevalence of HIV infection among cases of Kaposi's sarcoma and on the prevalence of heavy popper consumption according to HIV infection in cases and controls. Results show that HIV infection may have confounded the poppers-Kaposi's sarcoma association. However, it cannot be ruled out that HIV did not qualify as a confounder because it was either an intermediate variable or an effect modifier of the association between popper inhalation and Kaposi's sarcoma. This example provides a basis to discuss the mechanism by which confounding occurs as well as the practical importance of confounding in epidemiologic research.

Overview of potential procedural and participant-related confounds for neuroimaging of the resting state

PubMed Central

Duncan, Niall W.; Northoff, Georg

2013-01-01

Studies of intrinsic brain activity in the resting state have become increasingly common. A productive discussion of what analysis methods are appropriate, of the importance of physiologic correction and of the potential interpretations of results has been ongoing. However, less attention has been paid to factors other than physiologic noise that may confound resting-state experiments. These range from straightforward factors, such as ensuring that participants are all instructed in the same manner, to more obscure participant-related factors, such as body weight. We provide an overview of such potentially confounding factors, along with some suggested approaches for minimizing their impact. A particular theme that emerges from the overview is the range of systematic differences between types of study groups (e.g., between patients and controls) that may influence resting-state study results. PMID:22964258

Effect of Time-Dependent Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor Antidepressants During Pregnancy on Behavioral, Emotional, and Social Development in Preschool-Aged Children.

PubMed

Lupattelli, Angela; Wood, Mollie; Ystrom, Eivind; Skurtveit, Svetlana; Handal, Marte; Nordeng, Hedvig

2018-03-01

To evaluate the effect of prenatal exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on children's behavioral, emotional, and social development by age 5 years, and over time since age 1.5 years. The prospective Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study was linked to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. We included women who reported depressive/anxiety disorders before and/or during pregnancy. Children born to women who used SSRIs in early (weeks 0-16), mid- (weeks 17-28), or late (> week 29) pregnancy were compared to those who were unexposed. Children's internalizing and externalizing behaviors (Child Behavior Checklist) and temperament traits (Emotionality, Activity and Shyness Temperament Questionnaire) were measured at 1.5, 3, and 5 years. Mean scores were calculated and standardized. General linear marginal structural models were fitted to account for time-varying exposure and confounders, and censoring; 3-level growth-curve models were used. A total of 8,359 mother-child dyads were included, and 4,128 children had complete outcome data at age 5 years. Children exposed to SSRIs in late pregnancy had an increased risk of anxious/depressed behaviors by age 5 years compared with unexposed children (adjusted β = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.04, 0.96). Such risk was not evident for earlier timings of exposure. There was no evidence for a substantial prenatal SSRI effect on externalizing, social, and emotional problems. These findings suggest no substantial increased risk for externalizing, emotional, or social problems in preschool-aged children following prenatal SSRI exposure. Although the role of chance and potential unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out, late-pregnancy SSRI exposure was associated with greater anxious/depressed behaviors in the offspring. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of a history of asthma on long-term outcomes of people with newly diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A population study.

PubMed

Kendzerska, Tetyana; To, Teresa M; Aaron, Shawn D; Lougheed, M Diane; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; FitzGerald, J Mark; Gershon, Andrea S

2017-03-01

Little is known about the natural history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that has developed from airway remodeling due to asthma, as compared with other COPD phenotypes. We compared long-term health outcomes of individuals with COPD with and without a history of asthma in a population-based cohort study. All individuals with physician-diagnosed COPD between the ages 40 and 55 years from 2009 and 2011 were identified and followed until March 2013 through provincial health administrative data (Ontario, Canada). The exposure was a history of asthma at least 2 years before the diagnosis of COPD to ensure it preceded COPD. The hazards of COPD-, respiratory-, and cardiovascular (CV)-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality were compared between groups using a Cox regression model controlling for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and level of health care. Among 9053 patients with COPD, 2717 (30%) had a history of asthma. Over a median of 2.9 years, 712 (8%) individuals had a first COPD hospitalization, 964 (11%) a first respiratory-related and 342 (4%) a first CV-related hospitalization, and 556 (6%) died. Controlling for confounding, a history of asthma was significantly associated with COPD and respiratory-related hospitalizations (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.29-1.82] and hazard ratio, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.14-1.88], respectively), but not with CV-related hospitalizations or all-cause mortality. Additional analyses confirmed that these findings were not likely a result of unmeasured confounding or misclassification. Middle-aged individuals with physician-diagnosed COPD and a history of asthma had a higher hazard of hospitalizations due to COPD and other respiratory diseases than did those without. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New insights into the effect of haemodiafiltration on mortality: the Romanian experience.

PubMed

Siriopol, Dimitrie; Canaud, Bernard; Stuard, Stefano; Mircescu, Gabriel; Nistor, Ionut; Covic, Adrian

2015-02-01

Haemodiafiltration (HDF), by successfully removing the larger solutes and protein-bound compounds, may offer a feasible approach to improve dialysis outcomes. Recently, three large, randomized, controlled trials have tested this hypothesis, but only one showed an improved survival associated with HDF treatment, when compared with haemodialysis (HD). This is a retrospective analysis of the entire Romanian dialysed population from the European Clinical Database (EUCLID) Fresenius Medical Care Database. We conducted two types of analysis. First, we used an intention-to-treat approach including all patients who were in dialysis (either HDF or HD) at 1 March 2010--'prevalent cohort analysis'. We then considered only the incident patients who started dialysis (either HDF or HD) after 1 March 2010--'incident cohort analysis'. In both analyses, patients were followed until 31 April 2013. In the prevalent cohort, we included 1546 patients who were already performing dialysis at the first time point-1322 on HD and 224 on HDF. When compared with HD, HDF treatment was associated with reduced mortality in both univariate and multivariate survival analysis (HR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.46-0.96 and HR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.93, respectively). In the incident cohort, 2447 patients started dialysis (2181 HD and 266 HDF) during the observation period. Patients in the HDF group maintained a reduced risk for all-cause mortality (HR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.11-0.38 for the univariate and HR = 0.24, 95% CI 0.13-0.46 for the fully adjusted model). This study suggests that HDF treatment could reduce all-cause mortality in incident and prevalent patients even after correction for different confounders. Interestingly, an additional survival benefit could be observed in incident patients. However, as with any observational study, there could have been other unmeasured confounders that could have influenced our final results. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Smoking paradox in the development of psoriatic arthritis among patients with psoriasis: a population-based study.

PubMed

Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D T; Zhang, Yuqing; Lu, Na; Louie-Gao, Qiong; Niu, Jingbo; Ogdie, Alexis; Gelfand, Joel M; LaValley, Michael P; Dubreuil, Maureen; Sparks, Jeffrey A; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Choi, Hyon K

2018-01-01

Smoking is associated with an increased risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in the general population, but not among patients with psoriasis. We sought to clarify the possible methodological mechanisms behind this paradox. Using 1995-2015 data from The Health Improvement Network, we performed survival analysis to examine the association between smoking and incident PsA in the general population and among patients with psoriasis. We clarified the paradox using mediation analysis and conducted bias sensitivity analyses to evaluate the potential impact of index event bias and quantify its magnitude from uncontrolled/unmeasured confounders. Of 6.65 million subjects without PsA at baseline, 225 213 participants had psoriasis and 7057 developed incident PsA. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of PsA in the general population (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.36), but with a decreased risk among patients with psoriasis (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99). Mediation analysis showed that the effect of smoking on the risk of PsA was mediated almost entirely through its effect on psoriasis. Bias-sensitivity analyses indicated that even when the relation of uncontrolled confounders to either smoking or PsA was modest (both HRs=~1.5), it could reverse the biased effect of smoking among patients with psoriasis (HR=0.9). In this large cohort representative of the UK general population, smoking was positively associated with PsA risk in the general population, but negatively associated among patients with psoriasis. Conditioning on a causal intermediate variable (psoriasis) may even reverse the association between smoking and PsA, potentially explaining the smoking paradox for the risk of PsA among patients with psoriasis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Association of Coffee Consumption With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Nonwhite Populations.

PubMed

Park, Song-Yi; Freedman, Neal D; Haiman, Christopher A; Le Marchand, Loïc; Wilkens, Lynne R; Setiawan, Veronica Wendy

2017-08-15

Coffee consumption has been associated with reduced risk for death in prospective cohort studies; however, data in nonwhites are sparse. To examine the association of coffee consumption with risk for total and cause-specific death. The MEC (Multiethnic Cohort), a prospective population-based cohort study established between 1993 and 1996. Hawaii and Los Angeles, California. 185 855 African Americans, Native Hawaiians, Japanese Americans, Latinos, and whites aged 45 to 75 years at recruitment. Outcomes were total and cause-specific mortality between 1993 and 2012. Coffee intake was assessed at baseline by means of a validated food-frequency questionnaire. 58 397 participants died during 3 195 484 person-years of follow-up (average follow-up, 16.2 years). Compared with drinking no coffee, coffee consumption was associated with lower total mortality after adjustment for smoking and other potential confounders (1 cup per day: hazard ratio [HR], 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.91]; 2 to 3 cups per day: HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.79 to 0.86]; ≥4 cups per day: HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.78 to 0.87]; P for trend < 0.001). Trends were similar between caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee. Significant inverse associations were observed in 4 ethnic groups; the association in Native Hawaiians did not reach statistical significance. Inverse associations were also seen in never-smokers, younger participants (<55 years), and those who had not previously reported a chronic disease. Among examined end points, inverse associations were observed for deaths due to heart disease, cancer, respiratory disease, stroke, diabetes, and kidney disease. Unmeasured confounding and measurement error, although sensitivity analysis suggested that neither was likely to affect results. Higher consumption of coffee was associated with lower risk for death in African Americans, Japanese Americans, Latinos, and whites. National Cancer Institute.

Breast feeding in infancy and social mobility: 60-year follow-up of the Boyd Orr cohort.

PubMed

Martin, Richard M; Goodall, Sarah H; Gunnell, David; Davey Smith, George

2007-04-01

To assess the association of having been breast fed with social class mobility between childhood and adulthood. Historical cohort study with a 60-year follow-up from childhood into adulthood. 16 urban and rural centres in England and Scotland. 3182 original participants in the Boyd Orr Survey of Diet and Health in Pre-War Britain (1937-39) were sent follow-up questionnaires between 1997 and 1998. Analyses are based on 1414 (44%) responders with data on breast feeding measured in childhood and occupational social class in both childhood and adulthood. Odds of moving from a lower to a higher social class between childhood and adulthood in those who were ever breast fed versus those who were bottle fed. The prevalence of breast feeding varied by survey district (range 45-86%) but not with household income (p = 0.7), expenditure on food (p = 0.3), number of siblings (p = 0.7), birth order (p = 0.5) or social class (p = 0.4) in childhood. Participants who had been breast fed were 41% (95% CI 10% to 82%) more likely to move up a social class in adulthood (p = 0.007) than bottle-fed infants. Longer breastfeeding duration was associated with greater odds of upward social mobility in fully adjusted models (p for trend = 0.003). Additionally controlling for survey district, household income and food expenditure in childhood, childhood height, birth order or number of siblings did not attenuate these associations. In an analysis comparing social mobility among children within families with discordant breastfeeding histories, the association was somewhat attenuated (OR 1.16; 95% CI 0.74 to 1.8). Breast feeding was associated with upward social mobility. Confounding by other measured childhood predictors of social class in adulthood did not explain this effect, but we cannot exclude the possibility of residual or unmeasured confounding.

Comparison of clipping and coiling in elderly patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms

PubMed Central

Bekelis, Kimon; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Su, Yin; O’Malley, A. James; Labropoulos, Nicos; Goodney, Philip; Lawton, Michael T.; MacKenzie, Todd A.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE The comparative effectiveness of the 2 treatment options—surgical clipping and endovascular coiling—for unruptured cerebral aneurysms remains an issue of debate and has not been studied in clinical trials. The authors investigated the association between treatment method for unruptured cerebral aneurysms and outcomes in elderly patients. METHODS The authors performed a cohort study of 100% of Medicare fee-for-service claims data for elderly patients who had treatment for unruptured cerebral aneurysms between 2007 and 2012. To control for measured confounding, the authors used propensity score conditioning and inverse probability weighting with mixed effects to account for clustering at the level of the hospital referral region (HRR). An instrumental variable (regional rates of coiling) analysis was used to control for unmeasured confounding and to create pseudo-randomization on the treatment method. RESULTS During the study period, 8705 patients underwent treatment for unruptured cerebral aneurysms and met the study inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 2585 (29.7%) had surgical clipping and 6120 (70.3%) had endovascular coiling. Instrumental variable analysis demonstrated no difference between coiling and clipping in 1-year postoperative mortality (OR 1.25, 95% CI 0.68–2.31) or 90-day readmission rate (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.66–1.62). However, clipping was associated with a greater likelihood of discharge to rehabilitation (OR 6.39, 95% CI 3.85–10.59) and 3.6 days longer length of stay (LOS; 95% CI 2.90–4.71). The same associations were present in propensity score–adjusted and inverse probability– weighted models. CONCLUSIONS In a cohort of Medicare patients, there was no difference in mortality and the readmission rate between clipping and coiling of unruptured cerebral aneurysms. Clipping was associated with a higher rate of discharge to a rehabilitation facility and a longer LOS. PMID:27203150

Antidepressant Exposure During Pregnancy and Risk of Autism in the Offspring, 2: Do the New Studies Add Anything New?

PubMed

Andrade, Chittaranjan

During the past year, at least 5 new studies, all observational in design, examined the risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in children exposed to antidepressant medication in utero. These studies had not found inclusion in the many systematic reviews and meta-analyses that had also been published in the past year. Noteworthy methods and findings of the new studies are summarized. One of these studies is examined in detail to help the reader understand methodological and conceptual issues that are critical in the field. Some general caveats in the interpretation of the literature are also discussed. In order to reduce the limitations associated with their observational design, the new studies used many innovations, including maternal controls with mental illness, propensity score-matched controls, preconception antidepressant exposure controls, sibling controls, paternal antidepressant user controls, and modeling for the presence of an unknown confound. Two studies found an association between maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy and the risk of ASD in the offspring; these associations remained statistically significant even after covariate adjustments. The other 3 studies found that the significant association between antidepressant exposure and ASD risk was lost after statistical adjustment; that preconception antidepressant exposure was also associated with increased risk of ASD; that siblings discordant for antidepressant exposure had similar ASD risk; and that paternal antidepressant use was also associated with increased risk. The new studies do not change the conclusions of the available meta-analyses. In fact, at least some of the new data strengthen the conclusion that antidepressant use during pregnancy is likely to be a marker of more severe illness and that inadequately measured, unmeasured, or unknown genetic, behavioral, and environmental confounds associated with more severe illness (rather than the antidepressant exposure by itself) may be responsible for the increased risk of ASD. © Copyright 2017 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Iron Status Predicts Malaria Risk in Malawian Preschool Children

PubMed Central

Jonker, Femkje A. M.; Calis, Job C. J.; van Hensbroek, Michael Boele; Phiri, Kamija; Geskus, Ronald B.; Brabin, Bernard J.; Leenstra, Tjalling

2012-01-01

Introduction Iron deficiency is highly prevalent in pre-school children in developing countries and an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. A debate exists on the possible protective effect of iron deficiency against malaria and other infections; yet consensus is lacking due to limited data. Recent studies have focused on the risks of iron supplementation but the effect of an individual's iron status on malaria risk remains unclear. Studies of iron status in areas with a high burden of infections often are exposed to bias. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of baseline iron status for malaria risk explicitly taking potential biases into account. Methods and materials We prospectively assessed the relationship between baseline iron deficiency (serum ferritin <30 µg/L) and malaria risk in a cohort of 727 Malawian preschool children during a year of follow-up. Data were analyzed using marginal structural Cox regression models and confounders were selected using causal graph theory. Sensitivity of results to bias resulting from misclassification of iron status by concurrent inflammation and to bias from unmeasured confounding were assessed using modern causal inference methods. Results and Conclusions The overall incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria was 1.9 (95% CI 1.8–2.0) and 0.7 (95% CI 0.6–0.8) events per person-year, respectively. Children with iron deficiency at baseline had a lower incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria during a year of follow-up; adjusted hazard ratio's 0.55 (95%-CI:0.41–0.74) and 0.49 (95%-CI:0.33–0.73), respectively. Our results suggest that iron deficiency protects against malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria in young children. Therefore the clinical importance of treating iron deficiency in a pre-school child should be weighed carefully against potential harms. In malaria endemic areas treatment of iron deficiency in children requires sustained prevention of malaria. PMID:22916146

Platelet aggregation inhibitors, vitamin K antagonists and risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Risselada, R; Straatman, H; van Kooten, F; Dippel, D W J; van der Lugt, A; Niessen, W J; Firouzian, A; Herings, R M C; Sturkenboom, M C J M

2011-03-01

Use of platelet aggregation inhibitors and vitamin K antagonists has been associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Whether the use of these antithrombotic drugs is associated with an increased risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) remains unclear, especially as confounding by indication might play a role. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether use of platelet aggregation inhibitors or vitamin K antagonists increase the risk of SAH. We applied population-based case-control, case-crossover and case-time-control designs to estimate the risk of SAH while addressing issues both of confounding by indication and time varying exposure within the PHARMO Record Linkage System database. This system includes drug dispensing records from community pharmacies and hospital discharge records of more than 3 million community-dwelling inhabitants in the Netherlands. Patients were considered a case if they were hospitalized for a first SAH (ICD-9-CM code 430) in the period between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2006. Controls were selected from the source population, matched on age, gender and date of hospitalization. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate multivariable adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of SAH during use of platelet aggregation inhibitors or vitamin K antagonists. In the case-crossover and case-time-control designs we selected 11 control periods preceding the index date in successive steps of 1 month in the past. In all, 1004 cases of SAH were identified. In the case-control analysis the adjusted OR for the risk of SAH in current use of platelet aggregation inhibitors was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.02-1.70) and in current use of vitamin K antagonists 1.29 (95% CI: 0.89-1.87) compared with no use. In the case-crossover analysis the ORs for the risk of SAH in current use of platelet aggregation inhibitors and vitamin K antagonists were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.56-1.94) and 2.46 (95% CI: 1.04-5.82), respectively. In the case-time-control analysis the OR for platelet aggregation inhibitors was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.26-0.98) and for vitamin K antagonists 1.98 (95% CI: 0.82-4.76). The use of platelet aggregation inhibitors was not associated with an increased SAH risk; the modest increase observed in the case-control analysis could be as a result of confounding. The use of vitamin K antagonists seemed to be associated with an increased risk of SAH. The increase was most pronounced in the case-crossover analysis and therefore cannot be explained by unmeasured confounding. © 2011 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Syphilis may be a confounding factor, not a causative agent, in syphilitic ALS.

PubMed

Tuk, Bert

2016-01-01

Based upon a review of published clinical observations regarding syphilitic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), I hypothesize that syphilis is actually a confounding factor, not a causative factor, in syphilitic ALS. Moreover, I propose that the successful treatment of ALS symptoms in patients with syphilitic ALS using penicillin G and hydrocortisone is an indirect consequence of the treatment regimen and is not due to the treatment of syphilis. Specifically, I propose that the observed effect is due to the various pharmacological activities of penicillin G ( e.g ., a GABA receptor antagonist) and/or the multifaceted pharmacological activity of hydrocortisone. The notion that syphilis may be a confounding factor in syphilitic ALS is highly relevant, as it suggests that treating ALS patients with penicillin G and hydrocortisone-regardless of whether they present with syphilitic ALS or non-syphilitic ALS-may be effective at treating this rapidly progressive, highly devastating disease.

Understanding Confounding Effects in Linguistic Coordination: An Information-Theoretic Approach

PubMed Central

Gao, Shuyang; Ver Steeg, Greg; Galstyan, Aram

2015-01-01

We suggest an information-theoretic approach for measuring stylistic coordination in dialogues. The proposed measure has a simple predictive interpretation and can account for various confounding factors through proper conditioning. We revisit some of the previous studies that reported strong signatures of stylistic accommodation, and find that a significant part of the observed coordination can be attributed to a simple confounding effect—length coordination. Specifically, longer utterances tend to be followed by longer responses, which gives rise to spurious correlations in the other stylistic features. We propose a test to distinguish correlations in length due to contextual factors (topic of conversation, user verbosity, etc.) and turn-by-turn coordination. We also suggest a test to identify whether stylistic coordination persists even after accounting for length coordination and contextual factors. PMID:26115446

Elevated Levels of Selenium Species in Cerebrospinal Fluid of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patients with Disease-Associated Gene Mutations.

PubMed

Mandrioli, Jessica; Michalke, Bernhard; Solovyev, Nikolay; Grill, Peter; Violi, Federica; Lunetta, Christian; Conte, Amelia; Sansone, Valeria Ada; Sabatelli, Mario; Vinceti, Marco

2017-01-01

Although an increasing role of genetic susceptibility has been recognized, the role of environmental risk factors in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) etiology is largely uncertain; among neurotoxic chemicals, epidemiological and biological plausibility has been provided for pesticides, the heavy metal lead, the metalloid selenium, and other persistent organic pollutants. Selenium involvement in ALS has been suggested on the basis of epidemiological studies, in vitro investigations, and veterinary studies in which selenium induced a selective toxicity against motor neurons. Hypothesizing a multistep pathogenic mechanism (genetic susceptibility and environmental exposure), we aimed to study selenium species in ALS patients carrying disease-associated gene mutations as compared to a series of hospital controls. Using advanced analytical techniques, we determined selenium species in cerebrospinal fluid sampled at diagnosis in 9 ALS patients carrying different gene mutations (C9ORF72, SOD1, FUS, TARDBP, ATXN2, and TUBA4A) compared to 42 controls. In a patient with the tubulin-related TUBA4A mutation, we found highly elevated levels (in μg/L) of glutathione-peroxidase-bound selenium (32.8 vs. 1.0) as well as increased levels of selenoprotein-P-bound selenium (2.4 vs. 0.8), selenite (1.8 vs. 0.1), and selenate (0.9 vs. 0.1). In the remaining ALS patients, we detected elevated selenomethionine-bound selenium levels (0.38 vs. 0.06). Selenium compounds can impair tubulin synthesis and the cytoskeleton structure, as do tubulin-related gene mutations. The elevated selenium species levels in the TUBA4A patient may have a genetic etiology and/or represent a pathogenic pathway through which this mutation favors disease onset, though unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded. The elevated selenomethionine levels in the other patients are also of interest due to the toxicity of this nonphysiological selenium species. Our study is the first to assess selenium exposure in genetic ALS, suggesting an interaction between this environmental factor and genetics in triggering disease onset. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Appendectomy and Risk of Subsequent Diverticular Disease Requiring Hospitalization: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Sköldberg, Filip; Olén, Ola; Ekbom, Anders; Schmidt, Peter T

2018-07-01

Appendicitis and acute diverticulitis share clinical features and are both influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Appendectomy has been positively associated with diverticular disease in hospital-based case-control studies. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in a population-based setting, whether appendectomy, with or without appendicitis, is associated with an altered risk of hospitalization with diverticular disease. This was a population-based case-control study. The study was based on national healthcare and population registers. We studied 41,988 individuals hospitalized between 2000 and 2010 with a first-time diagnosis of colonic diverticular disease and 413,115 matched control subjects. The association between appendectomy with or without appendicitis and diverticular disease was investigated by conditional logistic regression, including a model adjusting for hospital use. A total of 2813 cases (6.7%) and 19,037 controls (4.6%) had a previous record of appendectomy (appendectomy with acute appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.31 (95% CI, 1.24-1.39); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.23-1.38)). Appendectomy was most strongly associated with an increased risk of diverticular disease within 1 year (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 2.26 (95% CI, 1.61-3.16); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 3.98 (95% CI, 2.71-5.83)), but the association was still present ≥20 years after appendectomy (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.22 (95% CI, 1.12-1.32); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10-1.28)). Detailed clinical information on the cases was not available. There were unmeasured potential confounders, such as smoking and dietary factors. The findings are consistent with a hypothesis of appendectomy causing an increased risk of diverticular disease, for example, by affecting the mucosal immune system or the gut microbiome. However, several other mechanisms may contribute to, or account for, the positive association, including a propensity for abdominal pain increasing the risk of both the exposure and the outcome. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A604.

Identification of confounders in the assessment of the relationship between lead exposure and child development.

PubMed

Tong, I S; Lu, Y

2001-01-01

To explore the best approach to identify and adjust for confounders in epidemiologic practice. In the Port Pirie cohort study, the selection of covariates was based on both a priori and an empirical consideration. In an assessment of the relationship between exposure to environmental lead and child development, change-in-estimate (CE) and significance testing (ST) criteria were compared in identifying potential confounders. The Pearson correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the potential for collinearity between pairs of major quantitative covariates. In multivariate analyses, the effects of confounding factors were assessed with multiple linear regression models. The nature and number of covariates selected varied with different confounder selection criteria and different cutoffs. Four covariates (i.e., quality of home environment, socioeconomic status (SES), maternal intelligence, and parental smoking behaviour) met the conventional CE criterion (> or =10%), whereas 14 variables met the ST criterion (p < or = 0.25). However, the magnitude of the relationship between blood lead concentration and children's IQ differed slightly after adjustment for confounding, using either the CE (partial regression coefficient: -4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.5 to -8.3) or ST criterion (-4.3; 95% CI: -0.2 to -8.4). Identification and selection of confounding factors need to be viewed cautiously in epidemiologic studies. Either the CE (e.g., > or = 10%) or ST (e.g., p < or = 0.25) criterion may be implemented in identification of a potential confounder if a study sample is sufficiently large, and both the methods are subject to arbitrariness of selecting a cut-off point. In this study, the CE criterion (i.e., > or = 10%) appears to be more stringent than the ST method (i.e., p < or = 0.25) in the identification of confounders. However, the ST rule cannot be used to determine the trueness of confounding because it cannot reflect the causal relationship between the confounder and outcome. This study shows the complexities one can expect to encounter in the identification of and adjustment for confounders.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs, such as thrust. The engine's performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends on knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined that accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs, such as thrust. The engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends on knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined that accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least-squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

An Optimal Orthogonal Decomposition Method for Kalman Filter-Based Turbofan Engine Thrust Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.

2005-01-01

A new linear point design technique is presented for the determination of tuning parameters that enable the optimal estimation of unmeasured engine outputs such as thrust. The engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters related to each major engine component. Accurate thrust reconstruction depends upon knowledge of these health parameters, but there are usually too few sensors to be able to estimate their values. In this new technique, a set of tuning parameters is determined which accounts for degradation by representing the overall effect of the larger set of health parameters as closely as possible in a least squares sense. The technique takes advantage of the properties of the singular value decomposition of a matrix to generate a tuning parameter vector of low enough dimension that it can be estimated by a Kalman filter. A concise design procedure to generate a tuning vector that specifically takes into account the variables of interest is presented. An example demonstrates the tuning parameters ability to facilitate matching of both measured and unmeasured engine outputs, as well as state variables. Additional properties of the formulation are shown to lend themselves well to diagnostics.

Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

2017-12-29

Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind of bias into consideration when drawing conclusion based on summary estimation of meta-analyses.

Work-Home Interference, Perceived Total Workload, and the Risk of Future Sickness Absence Due to Stress-Related Mental Diagnoses Among Women and Men: a Prospective Twin Study.

PubMed

Svedberg, Pia; Mather, Lisa; Bergström, Gunnar; Lindfors, Petra; Blom, Victoria

2018-02-01

Work-home interference has been proposed as an important explanation for sickness absence (SA). Previous studies show mixed results, have not accounted for familial factors (genetics and shared everyday environment), or investigated diagnosis specific SA. The aim was to study whether work-home interference and perceived total workload predict SA due to stress-related mental diagnoses, or SA due to other mental diagnoses, among women and men, when adjusting for various confounders and familial factors. This study included 11,916 twins, 19-47 years (49% women). Data on work-to-home and home-to-work conflicts, perceived total workload, and relevant confounders were derived from a 2005 survey, and national register data on SA spells until 2013 were obtained. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Discordant twin pair design was applied to adjust for familial factors. Each one unit increase in work-to-home and home-to-work conflicts, and perceived total workload was associated with higher odds for SA due to stress-related mental diagnoses and to SA due to other mental diagnoses among women, when adjusting for sociodemographic factors (ORs 1.15-1.31). Including health or familial factors, no associations remained. For men, each one unit increase in work-to-home conflicts was associated with higher odds for SA due to stress-related diagnoses (ORs 1.23-1.35), independently of confounders. Work-to-home conflict was independently associated with future SA due to stress-related diagnoses among men only. Health- and work-related factors seem to be important confounders when researching work-home interference, perceived total workload, and SA. Not including such confounders involves risking drawing incorrect conclusions. Further studies are needed to confirm sex differences and whether genetic factors are important for the associations studied.

Risk of being convicted of theft and other crimes in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: A prospective cohort study in a Swedish female population.

PubMed

Yao, Shuyang; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Thornton, Laura M; Norring, Claes; Almqvist, Catarina; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Lichtenstein, Paul; Långström, Niklas; Bulik, Cynthia M; Larsson, Henrik

2017-09-01

We examined epidemiological associations between anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) and risks of committing theft and other crimes in a nationwide female population. Females born in Sweden during 1979-1998 (N = 957,106) were followed from age 15 for up to 20 years using information on clinically diagnosed AN and BN (exposures), convictions of theft and other crimes (outcomes), psychiatric comorbidities, and familial relatedness from Swedish national registers. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of criminality in exposed versus unexposed females using Cox proportional hazards regressions and explored how comorbidities and unmeasured familial factors explained the associations. The cumulative incidence of convictions of theft (primarily petty theft) and other crimes was higher in exposed females (AN: 11.60% theft, 7.39% other convictions; BN: 17.97% theft, 13.17% other convictions) than in unexposed females (∼5% theft, ∼6% other convictions). The significantly increased risk of being convicted of theft in exposed females (AN: HR = 2.51, 95% confidence interval = [2.29, 2.74], BN: 4.31 [3.68, 5.05]) was partially explained by comorbidities; unmeasured familial factors partially explained the association with convictions of theft in BN but not in AN. Females with BN had a doubled risk of convictions of other crimes, which was partially explained by comorbidities. Individuals with eating disorders had increased risk for convictions of theft and potentially other crimes. Results underscore the importance of regular forensic screening and encourage research on mechanisms underlying the relation between crime and eating disorder psychopathology and efforts to determine how best to address such relation in treatment. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How Confounder Strength Can Affect Allocation of Resources in Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Lynch, Kristine E; Whitcomb, Brian W; DuVall, Scott L

2018-01-01

When electronic health record (EHR) data are used, multiple approaches may be available for measuring the same variable, introducing potentially confounding factors. While additional information may be gleaned and residual confounding reduced through resource-intensive assessment methods such as natural language processing (NLP), whether the added benefits offset the added cost of the additional resources is not straightforward. We evaluated the implications of misclassification of a confounder when using EHRs. Using a combination of simulations and real data surrounding hospital readmission, we considered smoking as a potential confounder. We compared ICD-9 diagnostic code assignment, which is an easily available measure but has the possibility of substantial misclassification of smoking status, with NLP, a method of determining smoking status that more expensive and time-consuming than ICD-9 code assignment but has less potential for misclassification. Classification of smoking status with NLP consistently produced less residual confounding than the use of ICD-9 codes; however, when minimal confounding was present, differences between the approaches were small. When considerable confounding is present, investing in a superior measurement tool becomes advantageous.

New, simplified, interpolation method for estimation of microscopic nuclear masses based on the p-factor, P = N/sub P/N/sub N//(N/sub p/+N/sub n/)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.; Brenner, D.S.; Casten, R.F.

1987-12-10

A new semi-empirical method, based on the use of the P-factor (P = N/sub p/N/sub n//(N/sub p/+N/sub n/)), is shown to simplify significantly the systematics of atomic masses. Its uses is illustrated for actinide nuclei where complicated patterns of mass systematics seen in traditional plots versus Z, N, or isospin are consolidated and transformed into linear ones extending over long isotopic and isotonic sequences. The linearization of the systematics by this procedure provides a simple basis for mass prediction. For many unmeasured nuclei beyond the known mass surface, the P-factor method operates by interpolation among data for known nuclei rathermore » than by extrapolation, as is common in other mass models.« less

Long-term health experience of jet engine manufacturing workers: VI: incidence of malignant central nervous system neoplasms in relation to estimated workplace exposures.

PubMed

Marsh, Gary M; Youk, Ada O; Buchanich, Jeanine M; Xu, Hui; Downing, Sarah; Kennedy, Kathleen J; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hancock, Roger P; Lacey, Steven E; Fleissner, Mary Lou

2013-06-01

To determine whether glioblastoma (GB) incidence rates among jet engine manufacturing workers were associated with specific chemical or physical exposures. Subjects were 210,784 workers employed from 1952 to 2001. We conducted a cohort incidence study and two nested case-control studies with focus on the North Haven facility where we previously observed a not statistically significant overall elevation in GB rates. We estimated individual-level exposure metrics for 11 agents. In the total cohort, none of the agent metrics considered was associated with increased GB risk. The GB incidence rates in North Haven were also not related to workplace exposures, including the "blue haze" exposure unique to North Haven. If not due to chance alone, GB rates in North Haven may reflect external occupational factors, nonoccupational factors, or workplace factors unique to North Haven unmeasured in the current evaluation.

An assessment of the possible extent of confounding in epidemiological studies of lung cancer risk among roofers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mundt, D.J.; van Wijngaarden, E.; Mundt, K.A.

2007-07-01

We evaluated the likelihood and extent to which the observed increased risk of lung cancer may be due to confounding (a mixing of effects of multiple exposures) by co-exposure to other potential carcinogens present in roofing or to lifestyle variables. We conducted a review of the epidemiological and industrial hygiene literature of asphalt-exposed workers. Peer-reviewed epidemiological studies of asphalt fumes, related occupational exposures, and confounding factors were identified from MEDLINE (1966 early 2004). Industrial hygiene studies of asphalt workers were identified through MEDLINE, publicly available government documents, and asphalt industry documents. Using well established statistical methods, we quantified the extentmore » to which lung cancer relative risk estimates among roofers reflect confounding from other exposures, using different prevalence and risk scenarios. The relative risk of lung cancer varied from 1.2 to 5.0 in 13 epidemiological studies of roofers; most studies reported a relative risk between 1.2 and 1.4. Smoking, asbestos and coal tar were the most likely confounders, but the prevalence of these factors varied over time. The results of the study indicate that much of the observed risk reported in epidemiological studies of cancer among roofers is well within the range of what may have resulted from confounding by reasonable and expected levels of smoking, asbestos or coal tar. This may be particularly true for those studies that did not adjust for these confounders and where the exposure was defined as employment in the roofing industry. In addition to poorly defined asphalt exposure, uncontrolled confounding cannot reliably be ruled out in studies of lung cancer among asphalt-exposed roofers. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether roofers are at increased risk of lung cancer due to asphalt exposure.« less

Adult children's socioeconomic positions and their parents' mortality: a comparison of education, occupational class, and income.

PubMed

Torssander, Jenny

2014-12-01

Recent research has shown that the parents of well-educated children live longer than do other parents and that this association is only partly confounded by the parent's own socioeconomic position. However, the relationships between other aspects of children's socioeconomic position (e.g., occupational class and economic resources) and parental mortality have not been examined. Using the Swedish Multi-generation Register that connects parents to their children, this paper studies the associations of children's various socioeconomic resources (education, occupation, and income) and parents' mortality. The models are adjusted for a range of parental socioeconomic resources and include the resources of the parents' partners. In addition to all-cause mortality, five causes of death are analyzed separately (circulatory disease mortality, overall cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer). The results show net associations between all included indicators of children's socioeconomic position and parents' mortality risk, with the clearest association for education. Children's education is significantly associated with all of the examined causes of death except prostate cancer. Breast cancer mortality is negatively related to offspring's education but not the mothers' own education. To conclude, children's education seems to be a key factor compared with other dimensions of socioeconomic position in the offspring generation. This finding suggests that explanations linked to behavioral norms or knowledge are more plausible than those linked to access to material resources. However, it is possible that children's education - to a greater degree than class and income - captures unmeasured parental characteristics. The cause-specific analyses imply that future research should investigate whether offspring's socioeconomic position is linked to the likelihood of developing diseases and/or the chances of treating them. A broader family perspective in the description and explanations of social inequalities in health that includes the younger generation may increase our understanding of why these inequalities persist across the life course. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gestational age and adolescent mental health: evidence from Hong Kong's 'Children of 1997' birth cohort.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Leung, Gabriel M; Lam, H S; Schooling, C Mary

2015-09-01

Preterm, and more recently early term, birth has been identified as a risk factor for poor health. Whether the sequelae of late preterm or early term birth extends to poor mental health and well-being in adolescence is unclear and has not been systematically assessed. Linear regression was used to assess the adjusted associations of gestational age (very/moderate preterm (<34 weeks, n=85), late preterm (34-36 weeks, n=305), early term (37-38 weeks, n=2228), full term (39-40 weeks, n=4018), late term (41 weeks, n=809), post-term (≥42 weeks, n=213)) with self-reported self-esteem at ∼11 years (n=6935), parent-reported Rutter score assessing the common emotional and behavioural problems at ∼7 years (n=6292) and ∼11 years (n=5596) and self-reported depressive symptoms at ∼13 years (n=5795) in a population-representative Hong Kong Chinese birth cohort 'Children of 1997' where gestational age has little social patterning. Very/moderate preterm birth was associated with higher Rutter subscore for hyperactivity (ß coefficients 0.5, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.00) at ∼7 years but not at ∼11 years, adjusted for sex, age, socio-economic position, parents' age at birth, birth order and secondhand smoke exposure. Similarly adjusted, late preterm, early term, late term and post-term birth were not associated with self-esteem or depressive symptoms. In a population-representative birth cohort from a non-Western-developed setting, gestational age had few associations with mental health and well-being in adolescence, whereas very preterm birth was specifically associated with hyperactivity in childhood. Inconsistencies with studies from Western settings suggest setting specific unmeasured confounding may underlie any observed associations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality.

PubMed

Chae, David H; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Kramer, Michael R; Cooper, Hannah L F; Wilson, Sacoby M; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I; Gold, Robert S; Link, Bruce G

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the "N-word" in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004-2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study contributes to evidence that racism shapes patterns in mortality and generates racial disparities in health.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use does not appear to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from a primary care based inception cohort of patients

PubMed Central

Goodson, N J; Brookhart, A M; Symmons, D P M; Silman, A J; Solomon, D H

2009-01-01

Objectives: There is controversy about the effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The aim of this study was to explore associations between NSAID use and mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). Subjects and methods: A total of 923 patients with new onset (IP), recruited to the UK Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) between 1990–1994, were followed up to the end of 2004. Current medication was recorded annually for the first 6 years and then every 2–3 years. Rheumatoid factor (RF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured. Logistic regression was used to calculate all cause and CVD mortality odds ratios (OR) for NSAID use at baseline and during follow-up, adjusting for gender and time-varying covariates: RF, CRP, joint counts, smoking, steroid use, DMARD use and other medication use. Results: By 2004 there were 203 deaths, 85 due to CVD. At baseline, NSAIDs were used by 66% of patients. In final multivariate models, baseline NSAID use was inversely associated with all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.86). Interval NSAID use had weaker mortality associations: all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.00), CVD mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.08). Conclusion: No excess CVD or all cause mortality was observed in NSAID users in this cohort of patients with IP. This is at variance with the literature relating to NSAID use in the general population. It is unclear whether this represents unmeasured confounders influencing a doctor’s decision to avoid NSAIDs in the treatment of IP. PMID:18408253

Antidepressant use in late gestation and risk of postpartum haemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Grzeskowiak, L E; McBain, R; Dekker, G A; Clifton, V L

2016-11-01

To investigate the association between antidepressant use in late gestation and postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary teaching hospital in Adelaide, Australia. A total of 30 198 women delivering between 2002 and 2008. Relative risks adjusted for maternal sociodemographics and comorbidities (aRRs) were calculated for PPH, comparing women with late-gestation exposure to antidepressants (n = 558), women with a psychiatric illness but no antidepressant use (n = 1292), and women with neither antenatal exposures (n = 28 348). Additional sensitivity analyses were undertaken, examining associations with severe PPH and postpartum anaemia. The primary outcome was PPH, defined as a recorded blood loss of ≥500 mL for vaginal deliveries and ≥1000 mL for caesarean sections. Secondary outcomes included severe PPH (≥1000 mL blood loss, irrespective of method of delivery), and the presence of postpartum anaemia (identified from hospital medical records). Compared with unexposed controls, women exposed to antidepressants had an increased risk of PPH (aRR 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.25-1.86), whereas no increased risk was observed for women with a psychiatric illness but no antidepressant use (aRR 1.04; 95% CI 0.89-1.23). In sensitivity analyses, late gestation antidepressant exposure was associated with an increased risk of severe PPH (aRR 1.84; 95% CI 1.39-2.44), as well as postpartum anaemia (aRR 1.80; 95% CI 1.46-2.22). Exposure to antidepressants in late gestation was associated with a significantly increased risk of PPH. Although potential confounding by unmeasured factors cannot be ruled out, these findings suggest a direct effect of antidepressant exposure on PPH. Late gestation antidepressant exposure is associated with a significantly increased risk of postpartum haemorrhage. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use does not appear to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from a primary care based inception cohort of patients.

PubMed

Goodson, N J; Brookhart, A M; Symmons, D P M; Silman, A J; Solomon, D H

2009-03-01

There is controversy about the effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The aim of this study was to explore associations between NSAID use and mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). A total of 923 patients with new onset (IP), recruited to the UK Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) between 1990-1994, were followed up to the end of 2004. Current medication was recorded annually for the first 6 years and then every 2-3 years. Rheumatoid factor (RF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured. Logistic regression was used to calculate all cause and CVD mortality odds ratios (OR) for NSAID use at baseline and during follow-up, adjusting for gender and time-varying covariates: RF, CRP, joint counts, smoking, steroid use, DMARD use and other medication use. By 2004 there were 203 deaths, 85 due to CVD. At baseline, NSAIDs were used by 66% of patients. In final multivariate models, baseline NSAID use was inversely associated with all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.86). Interval NSAID use had weaker mortality associations: all cause mortality (adjusted OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.00), CVD mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.08). No excess CVD or all cause mortality was observed in NSAID users in this cohort of patients with IP. This is at variance with the literature relating to NSAID use in the general population. It is unclear whether this represents unmeasured confounders influencing a doctor's decision to avoid NSAIDs in the treatment of IP.

Childhood vaccines and Kawasaki disease, Vaccine Safety Datalink, 1996-2006.

PubMed

Abrams, Joseph Y; Weintraub, Eric S; Baggs, James M; McCarthy, Natalie L; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Lee, Grace M; Klein, Nicola P; Belongia, Edward A; Jackson, Michael L; Naleway, Allison L; Nordin, James D; Hambidge, Simon J; Belay, Ermias D

2015-01-03

Kawasaki disease is a childhood vascular disorder of unknown etiology. Concerns have been raised about vaccinations being a potential risk factor for Kawasaki disease. Data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink were collected on children aged 0-6 years at seven managed care organizations across the United States. Defining exposure as one of several time periods up to 42 days after vaccination, we conducted Poisson regressions controlling for age, sex, season, and managed care organization to determine if rates of physician-diagnosed and verified Kawasaki disease were elevated following vaccination compared to rates during all unexposed periods. We also performed case-crossover analyses to control for unmeasured confounding. A total of 1,721,186 children aged 0-6 years from seven managed care organizations were followed for a combined 4,417,766 person-years. The rate of verified Kawasaki disease was significantly lower during the 1-42 days after vaccination (rate ratio=0.50, 95% CL=0.27-0.92) and 8-42 days after vaccination (rate ratio=0.45, 95% CL=0.22-0.90) compared to rates during unexposed periods. Breaking down the analysis by vaccination category did not identify a subset of vaccines which was solely responsible for this association. The case-crossover analyses revealed that children with Kawasaki disease had lower rates of vaccination in the 42 days prior to symptom onset for both physician-diagnosed Kawasaki disease (rate ratio=0.79, 95% CL=0.64-0.97) and verified Kawasaki disease (rate ratio=0.38, 95% CL=0.20-0.75). Childhood vaccinations' studied did not increase the risk of Kawasaki disease; conversely, vaccination was associated with a transient decrease in Kawasaki disease incidence. Verifying and understanding this potential protective effect could yield clues to the underlying etiology of Kawasaki disease. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality

PubMed Central

Chae, David H.; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Kramer, Michael R.; Cooper, Hannah L. F.; Wilson, Sacoby M.; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I.; Gold, Robert S.; Link, Bruce G.

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the “N-word” in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004–2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study contributes to evidence that racism shapes patterns in mortality and generates racial disparities in health. PMID:25909964

Prevalence of high frequency hearing loss consistent with noise exposure among people working with sound systems and general population in Brazil: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

El Dib, Regina P; Silva, Edina MK; Morais, José F; Trevisani, Virgínia FM

2008-01-01

Background Music is ever present in our daily lives, establishing a link between humans and the arts through the senses and pleasure. Sound technicians are the link between musicians and audiences or consumers. Recently, general concern has arisen regarding occurrences of hearing loss induced by noise from excessively amplified sound-producing activities within leisure and professional environments. Sound technicians' activities expose them to the risk of hearing loss, and consequently put at risk their quality of life, the quality of the musical product and consumers' hearing. The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence of high frequency hearing loss consistent with noise exposure among sound technicians in Brazil and compare this with a control group without occupational noise exposure. Methods This was a cross-sectional study comparing 177 participants in two groups: 82 sound technicians and 95 controls (non-sound technicians). A questionnaire on music listening habits and associated complaints was applied, and data were gathered regarding the professionals' numbers of working hours per day and both groups' hearing complaint and presence of tinnitus. The participants' ear canals were visually inspected using an otoscope. Hearing assessments were performed (tonal and speech audiometry) using a portable digital AD 229 E audiometer funded by FAPESP. Results There was no statistically significant difference between the sound technicians and controls regarding age and gender. Thus, the study sample was homogenous and would be unlikely to lead to bias in the results. A statistically significant difference in hearing loss was observed between the groups: 50% among the sound technicians and 10.5% among the controls. The difference could be addressed to high sound levels. Conclusion The sound technicians presented a higher prevalence of high frequency hearing loss consistent with noise exposure than did the general population, although the possibility of residual confounding due to unmeasured factors such as socioeconomic status cannot be ruled out. PMID:18462490

Neuropsychological functioning in older people with type 2 diabetes: the effect of controlling for confounding factors.

PubMed

Asimakopoulou, K G; Hampson, S E; Morrish, N J

2002-04-01

Neuropsychological functioning was examined in a group of 33 older (mean age 62.40 +/- 9.62 years) people with Type 2 diabetes (Group 1) and 33 non-diabetic participants matched with Group 1 on age, sex, premorbid intelligence and presence of hypertension and cardio/cerebrovascular conditions (Group 2). Data statistically corrected for confounding factors obtained from the diabetic group were compared with the matched control group. The results suggested small cognitive deficits in diabetic people's verbal memory and mental flexibility (Logical Memory A and SS7). No differences were seen between the two samples in simple and complex visuomotor attention, sustained complex visual attention, attention efficiency, mental double tracking, implicit memory, and self-reported memory problems. These findings indicate minimal cognitive impairment in relatively uncomplicated Type 2 diabetes and demonstrate the importance of control and matching for confounding factors.

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

If it is published in the peer-reviewed literature, it must be true?

PubMed

Wagner, Louis K

2014-10-01

Epidemiological research correlating cancer rates in a population of patients with radiation doses from medical X-rays is fraught with confounding factors that obfuscate the likelihood that any positive relationship is causal. This is a review of four studies involving some of those confounding factors. Comparisons of findings with other studies not encumbered by similar confounding factors can enhance assertions of causation between medical X-rays and cancer rates. Even so, such assertions rest significantly on opinions of researchers regarding the degree of consistency between findings among various studies. The question as to what degree any findings truly represent cause and effect will likely still meet with controversy. The importance of these findings to medicine should therefore not lie in any controversy regarding causation, but in what the findings potentially mean with regard to benefit and risk for patients and the professional practice of medicine.

THE RISE OF DIVORCE AND SEPARATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1880–1990

PubMed Central

RUGGLES, STEVEN

2011-01-01

I use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to assess the potential effects of local labor-market conditions on long-term trends and race differences in marital instability. The rise of female labor-force participation and the increase in nonfarm employment are closely associated with the growth of divorce and separation. Moreover, higher female labor-force participation among black women and lower economic opportunities for black men may account for race differences in marital instability before 1940, and for most of such differences in subsequent years. However, unmeasured intervening cultural factors are probably responsible for at least part of these effects. PMID:9545625

Maternal serum theobromine and the development of preeclampsia.

PubMed

Klebanoff, Mark A; Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Cuilin; Levine, Richard J

2009-09-01

Preeclampsia, a disorder with prominent cardiovascular manifestations, is a cause of maternal, fetal, and infant morbidity and mortality. Chocolate contains compounds that may promote cardiovascular health. A recent study found chocolate consumption during pregnancy, and, particularly, increasing cord serum concentration of theobromine (the primary methylxanthine alkaloid in chocolate), to be associated with reduced occurrence of preeclampsia. We studied 2769 women who comprised the control group from a case-control study of caffeine metabolites and spontaneous abortion nested within the Collaborative Perinatal Project. These women were pregnant between 1959 and 1966, with liveborn infants of at least 28 weeks' gestation. Serum was drawn at <20 weeks and >26 weeks' gestation, and assayed for theobromine by high-performance liquid chromatography. Odds ratios (ORs) for preeclampsia were estimated using logistic regression, and adjusted for age, education, prepregnant weight, race, parity, smoking, and gestation at blood draw. Preeclampsia occurred in 68 (2.9%) of 2105 eligible women. Adjusted ORs for preeclampsia were near unity across most third-trimester theobromine concentrations. Adjusted ORs for preeclampsia according to theobromine concentration in serum at <20 weeks' gestation increased with increases in concentration, although estimates were imprecise. This study does not support the previous finding that chocolate consumption is associated with a reduced occurrence of preeclampsia. Unmeasured confounding or reverse causation may account for the positive association between early-pregnancy theobromine and preeclampsia.

Effect of influenza vaccination on hospitalizations in persons aged 50 years and older.

PubMed

Baxter, Roger; Ray, G Thomas; Fireman, Bruce H

2010-10-21

To estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing hospitalizations in persons over 50 years of age. We performed a retrospective, population based study, using a "difference-in-differences" approach to determine the association between hospitalization and prior vaccination. We examined this association when influenza was not circulating and compared it to the association found when influenza was circulating. VE was estimated from the difference in the association between hospitalization and prior vaccination, inside vs. outside influenza seasons. Kaiser Permanente in Northern California. Health plan members aged 50 years and older during the September 1997 to August 2008 study period, when there were about 68,000 pneumonia hospitalizations in 10 million person-years. Vaccination was associated with lower risk of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza, even before flu season, presumably due to unmeasured confounders. When influenza arrived the hospitalization-vaccination association strengthened, yielding an adjusted VE estimate of 12.4% (95% CI: 1.6-22.0) in persons aged 50-64, and 8.5% (95% CI: 3.3-13.5) in those aged 65 years and older. There was no significant effect on hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease (IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), or trauma. Influenza vaccination has a modest but significant effect on prevention of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza in persons 50 years of age and older. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Education and the risk for Alzheimer's disease: sex makes a difference. EURODEM pooled analyses. EURODEM Incidence Research Group.

PubMed

Letenneur, L; Launer, L J; Andersen, K; Dewey, M E; Ott, A; Copeland, J R; Dartigues, J F; Kragh-Sorensen, P; Baldereschi, M; Brayne, C; Lobo, A; Martinez-Lage, J M; Stijnen, T; Hofman, A

2000-06-01

The hypothesis that a low educational level increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease remains controversial. The authors studied the association of years of schooling with the risk for incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease by using pooled data from four European population-based follow-up studies. Dementia cases were identified in a two-stage procedure that included a detailed diagnostic assessment of screen-positive subjects. Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed by using international research criteria. Educational level was categorized by years of schooling as low (< or =7), middle (8-11), or high (> or =12). Relative risks (95% confidence intervals) were estimated by using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, study center, smoking status, and self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke. There were 493 (328) incident cases of dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and 28,061 (27,839) person-years of follow-up. Compared with women with a high level of education, those with low and middle levels of education had 4.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 11.9) and 2.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 7.1) times increased risks, respectively, for Alzheimer's disease. The risk estimates for men were close to 1.0. Finding an association of education with Alzheimer's disease for women only raises the possibility that unmeasured confounding explains the previously reported increased risk for Alzheimer's disease for persons with low levels of education.

Adaptive Neural Networks Decentralized FTC Design for Nonstrict-Feedback Nonlinear Interconnected Large-Scale Systems Against Actuator Faults.

PubMed

Li, Yongming; Tong, Shaocheng

The problem of active fault-tolerant control (FTC) is investigated for the large-scale nonlinear systems in nonstrict-feedback form. The nonstrict-feedback nonlinear systems considered in this paper consist of unstructured uncertainties, unmeasured states, unknown interconnected terms, and actuator faults (e.g., bias fault and gain fault). A state observer is designed to solve the unmeasurable state problem. Neural networks (NNs) are used to identify the unknown lumped nonlinear functions so that the problems of unstructured uncertainties and unknown interconnected terms can be solved. By combining the adaptive backstepping design principle with the combination Nussbaum gain function property, a novel NN adaptive output-feedback FTC approach is developed. The proposed FTC controller can guarantee that all signals in all subsystems are bounded, and the tracking errors for each subsystem converge to a small neighborhood of zero. Finally, numerical results of practical examples are presented to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.The problem of active fault-tolerant control (FTC) is investigated for the large-scale nonlinear systems in nonstrict-feedback form. The nonstrict-feedback nonlinear systems considered in this paper consist of unstructured uncertainties, unmeasured states, unknown interconnected terms, and actuator faults (e.g., bias fault and gain fault). A state observer is designed to solve the unmeasurable state problem. Neural networks (NNs) are used to identify the unknown lumped nonlinear functions so that the problems of unstructured uncertainties and unknown interconnected terms can be solved. By combining the adaptive backstepping design principle with the combination Nussbaum gain function property, a novel NN adaptive output-feedback FTC approach is developed. The proposed FTC controller can guarantee that all signals in all subsystems are bounded, and the tracking errors for each subsystem converge to a small neighborhood of zero. Finally, numerical results of practical examples are presented to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Clinical and evoked pain, personality traits, and emotional states: can familial confounding explain the associations?

PubMed

Strachan, Eric; Poeschla, Brian; Dansie, Elizabeth; Succop, Annemarie; Chopko, Laura; Afari, Niloofar

2015-01-01

Pain is a complex phenomenon influenced by context and person-specific factors. Affective dimensions of pain involve both enduring personality traits and fleeting emotional states. We examined how personality traits and emotional states are linked with clinical and evoked pain in a twin sample. 99 female twin pairs were evaluated for clinical and evoked pain using the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) and dolorimetry, and completed the 120-item International Personality Item Pool (IPIP), the Positive and Negative Affect Scale (PANAS), and ratings of stress and mood. Using a co-twin control design we examined a) the relationship of personality traits and emotional states with clinical and evoked pain and b) whether genetics and common environment (i.e. familial factors) may account for the associations. Neuroticism was associated with the sensory component of the MPQ; this relationship was not confounded by familial factors. None of the emotional state measures was associated with the MPQ. PANAS negative affect was associated with lower evoked pressure pain threshold and tolerance; these associations were confounded by familial factors. There were no associations between IPIP traits and evoked pain. A relationship exists between neuroticism and clinical pain that is not confounded by familial factors. There is no similar relationship between negative emotional states and clinical pain. In contrast, the relationship between negative emotional states and evoked pain is strong while the relationship with enduring personality traits is weak. The relationship between negative emotional states and evoked pain appears to be non-causal and due to familial factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Procedural Factors That Affect Psychophysical Measures of Spatial Selectivity in Cochlear Implant Users

PubMed Central

Deeks, John M.; Carlyon, Robert P.

2015-01-01

Behavioral measures of spatial selectivity in cochlear implants are important both for guiding the programing of individual users’ implants and for the evaluation of different stimulation methods. However, the methods used are subject to a number of confounding factors that can contaminate estimates of spatial selectivity. These factors include off-site listening, charge interactions between masker and probe pulses in interleaved masking paradigms, and confusion effects in forward masking. We review the effects of these confounds and discuss methods for minimizing them. We describe one such method in which the level of a 125-pps masker is adjusted so as to mask a 125-pps probe, and where the masker and probe pulses are temporally interleaved. Five experiments describe the method and evaluate the potential roles of the different potential confounding factors. No evidence was obtained for off-site listening of the type observed in acoustic hearing. The choice of the masking paradigm was shown to alter the measured spatial selectivity. For short gaps between masker and probe pulses, both facilitation and refractory mechanisms had an effect on masking; this finding should inform the choice of stimulation rate in interleaved masking experiments. No evidence for confusion effects in forward masking was revealed. It is concluded that the proposed method avoids many potential confounds but that the choice of method should depend on the research question under investigation. PMID:26420785

Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors.

PubMed

Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

2010-02-01

A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations.

Psychiatric disorders and violent reoffending: a national cohort study of convicted prisoners in Sweden

PubMed Central

Chang, Zheng; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Summary Background Reoffending and presence of psychiatric disorders are common in prisoners worldwide. However, whether psychiatric disorders are risk factors for reoffending is still unknown. We aimed to examine the association between psychiatric disorders, including substance use disorder, and violent reoffending. Methods We did a longitudinal cohort study of 47 326 prisoners who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden. We obtained data for diagnosed psychiatric disorders from both inpatient and outpatient registers, and sociodemographic and criminological factors from other population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for violent reoffending with Cox regression. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared sibling prisoners with and without psychiatric disorders. We calculated population attributable fraction to assess the population effect. Findings Diagnosed psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased hazard of violent reoffending in male (adjusted HR 1·63 [95% CI 1·57–1·70]) and female (2·02 [1·54–2·63]) prisoners, and these associations were independent of measured sociodemographic and criminological factors, and, in men, remained substantial after adjustment for unmeasured familial factors (2·01 [1·66–2·43]). However, findings differed between individual diagnoses and sex. We found some evidence of stronger effects on violent reoffending of alcohol and drug use disorders and bipolar disorder than of other psychiatric disorders. Alcohol use disorder seemed to have a greater effect in women than in men (women 2·08 [1·66–2·60]; men 1·63 [1·56–1·71]). The overall effects of psychiatric disorders did not differ with severity of crime. The hazard of violent reoffending increased in a stepwise way with the number of diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Assuming causality, up to 20% (95% CI 19–22) of violent reoffending in men and 40% (27–52) in women was attributable to the diagnosed psychiatric disorders that we investigated. Interpretation Certain psychiatric disorders are associated with a substantially increased hazard of violent reoffending. Because these disorders are prevalent and mostly treatable, improvements to prison mental health services could counteract the cycle of reoffending and improve both public health and safety. National violence prevention strategies should consider the role of prison health. Funding Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare. PMID:26342957

How Do Race and Hispanic Ethnicity Affect Nursing Home Admission? Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study

PubMed Central

Mudrazija, Stipica; Angel, Jacqueline L.

2015-01-01

Objectives. This study investigates how health- and disability-based need factors and enabling factors (e.g., socioeconomic and family-based resources) relate to nursing home admission among 3 different racial and ethnic groups. Method. We use Cox proportional hazard models to estimate differences in nursing home admission for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics from 1998 to 2010 in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 18,952). Results. Racial–ethnic differences in nursing home admission are magnified after controlling for health- and disability-based need factors and enabling factors. Additionally, the degree to which specific factors contribute to risk of nursing home admission varies significantly across racial–ethnic groups. Discussion. Our findings indicate that substantial racial and ethnic variations in nursing home admission continue to exist and that Hispanic use is particularly low. We argue that these differences may demonstrate a significant underuse of nursing homes for racial and ethnic minorities. Alternatively, they could signify different preferences for nursing home care, perhaps due to unmeasured cultural factors or structural obstacles. PMID:25204311

Generalizability of dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome this limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Risk Factors in Adolescent Hypertension

PubMed Central

Ewald, D. Rose; Haldeman, Lauren A.

2016-01-01

Hypertension is a complex and multifaceted disease, with many contributing factors. While diet and nutrition are important influences, the confounding effects of overweight and obesity, metabolic and genetic factors, racial and ethnic predispositions, socioeconomic status, cultural influences, growth rate, and pubertal stage have even more influence and make diagnosis quite challenging. The prevalence of hypertension in adolescents far exceeds the numbers who have been diagnosed; studies have found that 75% or more go undiagnosed. This literature review summarizes the challenges of blood pressure classification in adolescents, discusses the impact of these confounding influences, and identifies actions that will improve diagnosis and treatment outcomes. PMID:27335997

Long-term health experience of jet engine manufacturing workers: VIII. glioblastoma incidence in relation to workplace experiences with parts and processes.

PubMed

Marsh, Gary M; Youk, Ada O; Buchanich, Jeanine M; Downing, Sarah; Kennedy, Kathleen J; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hancock, Roger P; Lacey, Steven E; Pierce, Jennifer S; Fleissner, Mary Lou

2013-06-01

To determine whether glioblastoma (GB) incidence rates among jet engine manufacturing workers were associated with workplace experiences with specific parts produced and processes performed. Subjects were 210,784 workers employed between 1952 and 2001. We conducted nested case-control and cohort incidence studies with focus on 277 GB cases. We estimated time experienced with 16 part families, 4 process categories, and 32 concurrent part-process combinations with 20 or more GB cases. In both the cohort and case-control studies, none of the part families, process categories, or both considered was associated with increased GB risk. If not due to chance alone, the not statistically significantly elevated GB rates in the North Haven plant may reflect external occupational factors or nonoccupational factors unmeasured in the current evaluation.

A multilevel simultaneous equations model for within-cluster dynamic effects, with an application to reciprocal parent-child and sibling effects.

PubMed

Steele, Fiona; Rasbash, Jon; Jenkins, Jennifer

2013-03-01

There has been substantial interest in the social and health sciences in the reciprocal causal influences that people in close relationships have on one another. Most research has considered reciprocal processes involving only 2 units, although many social relationships of interest occur within a larger group (e.g., families, work groups, peer groups, classrooms). This article presents a general longitudinal multilevel modeling framework for the simultaneous estimation of reciprocal relationships among individuals with unique roles operating in a social group. We use family data for illustrative purposes, but the model is generalizable to any social group in which measurements of individuals in the social group occur over time, individuals have unique roles, and clustering of the data is evident. We allow for the possibility that the outcomes of family members are influenced by a common set of unmeasured family characteristics. The multilevel model we propose allows for residual variation in the outcomes of parents and children at the occasion, individual, and family levels and residual correlation between parents and children due to the unmeasured shared environment, genetic factors, and shared measurement. Another advantage of this method over approaches used in previous family research is it can handle mixed family sizes. The method is illustrated in an analysis of maternal depression and child delinquency using data from the Avon Brothers and Sisters Study. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Are Interactions between cis-Regulatory Variants Evidence for Biological Epistasis or Statistical Artifacts?

PubMed

Fish, Alexandra E; Capra, John A; Bush, William S

2016-10-06

The importance of epistasis-or statistical interactions between genetic variants-to the development of complex disease in humans has been controversial. Genome-wide association studies of statistical interactions influencing human traits have recently become computationally feasible and have identified many putative interactions. However, statistical models used to detect interactions can be confounded, which makes it difficult to be certain that observed statistical interactions are evidence for true molecular epistasis. In this study, we investigate whether there is evidence for epistatic interactions between genetic variants within the cis-regulatory region that influence gene expression after accounting for technical, statistical, and biological confounding factors. We identified 1,119 (FDR = 5%) interactions that appear to regulate gene expression in human lymphoblastoid cell lines, a tightly controlled, largely genetically determined phenotype. Many of these interactions replicated in an independent dataset (90 of 803 tested, Bonferroni threshold). We then performed an exhaustive analysis of both known and novel confounders, including ceiling/floor effects, missing genotype combinations, haplotype effects, single variants tagged through linkage disequilibrium, and population stratification. Every interaction could be explained by at least one of these confounders, and replication in independent datasets did not protect against some confounders. Assuming that the confounding factors provide a more parsimonious explanation for each interaction, we find it unlikely that cis-regulatory interactions contribute strongly to human gene expression, which calls into question the relevance of cis-regulatory interactions for other human phenotypes. We additionally propose several best practices for epistasis testing to protect future studies from confounding. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inhibitory Control in Siblings Discordant for Exposure to Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Micalizzi, Lauren; Marceau, Kristine; Brick, Leslie A.; Palmer, Rohan H.; Todorov, Alexandre A.; Heath, Andrew C.; Evans, Allison; Knopik, Valerie S.

2018-01-01

Maternal smoking during pregnancy (SDP) has been linked to poorer offspring executive function across development, but SDP does not occur independent of other familial risk factors. As such, poor and inconsistent control for potential confounds, notably shared familial (i.e., genetic and environmental) confounds, preclude concluding causal effects…

Bias, Confounding, and Interaction: Lions and Tigers, and Bears, Oh My!

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R; Mascha, Edward J

2017-09-01

Epidemiologists seek to make a valid inference about the causal effect between an exposure and a disease in a specific population, using representative sample data from a specific population. Clinical researchers likewise seek to make a valid inference about the association between an intervention and outcome(s) in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Both do so by using the available data about the sample variable to make a valid estimate about its corresponding or underlying, but unknown population parameter. Random error in an experiment can be due to the natural, periodic fluctuation or variation in the accuracy or precision of virtually any data sampling technique or health measurement tool or scale. In a clinical research study, random error can be due to not only innate human variability but also purely chance. Systematic error in an experiment arises from an innate flaw in the data sampling technique or measurement instrument. In the clinical research setting, systematic error is more commonly referred to as systematic bias. The most commonly encountered types of bias in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain medicine research include recall bias, observational bias (Hawthorne effect), attrition bias, misclassification or informational bias, and selection bias. A confounding variable is a factor associated with both the exposure of interest and the outcome of interest. A confounding variable (confounding factor or confounder) is a variable that correlates (positively or negatively) with both the exposure and outcome. Confounding is typically not an issue in a randomized trial because the randomized groups are sufficiently balanced on all potential confounding variables, both observed and nonobserved. However, confounding can be a major problem with any observational (nonrandomized) study. Ignoring confounding in an observational study will often result in a "distorted" or incorrect estimate of the association or treatment effect. Interaction among variables, also known as effect modification, exists when the effect of 1 explanatory variable on the outcome depends on the particular level or value of another explanatory variable. Bias and confounding are common potential explanations for statistically significant associations between exposure and outcome when the true relationship is noncausal. Understanding interactions is vital to proper interpretation of treatment effects. These complex concepts should be consistently and appropriately considered whenever one is not only designing but also analyzing and interpreting data from a randomized trial or observational study.

A Rosetta Stone for in situ Observations of Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scudder, J. D.; Daughton, W. S.; Karimabadi, H.; Roytershteyn, V.

2015-12-01

Local conditions that constrain the physics of magnetic reconnection in space in 3D will be discussed, including those observable conditions presently used and new ones that enhance experimental closure. Three classes of tests will be discussed: i) proxies for unmeasurable theoretical properties II) observable properties satisfied by all layers that pass mass flux, including those of the reconnection layer, and (iii) observable kinetic tests that are increasingly peculiar to collisionless magnetic reconnection. A Rosetta Stone of state of the art observables will be proposed, including proxies for unmeasurable theoretical local rate of frozen flux violation and measures of the significance of frozen flux encountered. A suite of kinetic observables involving properties peculiar to electrons will also be demonstrated as promising litmus tests for certifying sites of collisionless magnetic reconnection.

Observer-based sliding mode control of Markov jump systems with random sensor delays and partly unknown transition rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Deyin; Lu, Renquan; Xu, Yong; Ren, Hongru

2017-10-01

In this paper, the sliding mode control problem of Markov jump systems (MJSs) with unmeasured state, partly unknown transition rates and random sensor delays is probed. In the practical engineering control, the exact information of transition rates is hard to obtain and the measurement channel is supposed to subject to random sensor delay. Design a Luenberger observer to estimate the unmeasured system state, and an integral sliding mode surface is constructed to ensure the exponential stability of MJSs. A sliding mode controller based on estimator is proposed to drive the system state onto the sliding mode surface and render the sliding mode dynamics exponentially mean-square stable with H∞ performance index. Finally, simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Adaptive Fuzzy Control Design for Stochastic Nonlinear Switched Systems With Arbitrary Switchings and Unmodeled Dynamics.

PubMed

Li, Yongming; Sui, Shuai; Tong, Shaocheng

2017-02-01

This paper deals with the problem of adaptive fuzzy output feedback control for a class of stochastic nonlinear switched systems. The controlled system in this paper possesses unmeasured states, completely unknown nonlinear system functions, unmodeled dynamics, and arbitrary switchings. A state observer which does not depend on the switching signal is constructed to tackle the unmeasured states. Fuzzy logic systems are employed to identify the completely unknown nonlinear system functions. Based on the common Lyapunov stability theory and stochastic small-gain theorem, a new robust adaptive fuzzy backstepping stabilization control strategy is developed. The stability of the closed-loop system on input-state-practically stable in probability is proved. The simulation results are given to verify the efficiency of the proposed fuzzy adaptive control scheme.

The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models

PubMed Central

Ford, Deborah; Robins, James M.; Petersen, Maya L.; Gibb, Diana M.; Gilks, Charles F.; Mugyenyi, Peter; Grosskurth, Heiner; Hakim, James; Katabira, Elly; Babiker, Abdel G.; Walker, A. Sarah

2015-01-01

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003–2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm3 or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks. PMID:26316598

Association of dialysate bicarbonate concentration with mortality in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS).

PubMed

Tentori, Francesca; Karaboyas, Angelo; Robinson, Bruce M; Morgenstern, Hal; Zhang, Jinyao; Sen, Ananda; Ikizler, T Alp; Rayner, Hugh; Fissell, Rachel B; Vanholder, Raymond; Tomo, Tadashi; Port, Friedrich K

2013-10-01

Most hemodialysis patients worldwide are treated with bicarbonate dialysis using sodium bicarbonate as the base. Few studies have assessed outcomes of patients treated with different dialysate bicarbonate levels, and the optimal concentration remains uncertain. The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) is an international prospective cohort study. This study included 17,031 patients receiving thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis from 11 DOPPS countries (2002-2011). Dialysate bicarbonate concentration. All-cause and cause-specific mortality and first hospitalization, using Cox regression to estimate the effects of dialysate bicarbonate concentration, adjusting for potential confounders. Demographics, comorbid conditions, laboratory values, and prescriptions were abstracted from medical records. Mean dialysate bicarbonate concentration was 35.5 ± 2.7 (SD) mEq/L, ranging from 32.2 ± 2.3 mEq/L in Germany to 37.0 ± 2.6 mEq/L in the United States. Prescription of high dialysate bicarbonate concentration (≥38 mEq/L) was most common in the United States (45% of patients). Approximately 50% of DOPPS facilities used a single dialysate bicarbonate concentration. 3,913 patients (23%) died during follow-up. Dialysate bicarbonate concentration was associated positively with mortality (adjusted HR, 1.08 per 4 mEq/L higher [95% CI, 1.01-1.15]; HR for dialysate bicarbonate ≥38 vs 33-37 mEq/L, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.97-1.19]). Results were consistent across levels of pre-dialysis session serum bicarbonate and between facilities that used a single dialysate bicarbonate concentration and those that prescribed different concentrations to individual patients. The association of dialysis bicarbonate concentration with mortality was stronger in patients with longer dialysis vintage. Due to the observational nature of the present study, we cannot rule out that the reported associations may be biased by unmeasured confounders. High dialysate bicarbonate concentrations, especially prolonged exposure, may contribute to adverse outcomes, likely through the development of postdialysis metabolic alkalosis. Additional studies are warranted to identify the optimal dialysate bicarbonate concentration. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Dialysate Bicarbonate Concentration With Mortality in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS)

PubMed Central

Tentori, Francesca; Karaboyas, Angelo; Robinson, Bruce M.; Morgenstern, Hal; Zhang, Jinyao; Sen, Ananda; İkizler, T. Alp; Rayner, Hugh; Fissell, Rachel B.; Vanholder, Raymond; Tomo, Tadashi; Port, Friedrich K.

2013-01-01

Background Most hemodialysis patients worldwide are treated with bicarbonate dialysis using sodium bicarbonate as the base. Few studies have assessed outcomes of patients treated with different dialysate bicarbonate levels, and the optimal concentration remains uncertain. Study Design The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) is an international prospective cohort study. Setting & Participants This study included 17,031 patients receiving thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis from 11 DOPPS countries (2002–2011). Predictor Dialysate bicarbonate. Outcomes All-cause and cause-specific mortality and first hospitalization, using Cox regression to estimate the effects of dialysate bicarbonate concentration, adjusting for potential confounders. Measurements Demographics, comorbid conditions, laboratory values, and prescriptions were abstracted from medical records. Results Mean dialysate bicarbonate was 35.5 ± 2.7 (SD) mEq/L, ranging from 32.2 ± 2.3 mEq/L in Germany to 37.0 ± 2.6 mEq/L in the US. Prescription of high dialysate bicarbonate (≥38 mEq/L) was most common in the US (45% of patients). Approximately 50% of DOPPS facilities used a single dialysate bicarbonate concentration. 3,913 patients (23%) died during follow-up. Dialysate bicarbonate concentration was positively associated with mortality (adjusted HR, 1.08 per 4 mEq/L higher [95% CI, 1.01–1.15]; HR for dialysate bicarbonate ≥38 vs. 33–37 mEq/L, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.97–1.19]). Results were consistent across levels of pre-dialysis session serum bicarbonate and between facilities that used a single dialysate bicarbonate concentration and those that prescribed different concentrations to individual patients. The association of dialysis bicarbonate with mortality was stronger in patients with longer dialysis vintage. Limitations Due to the observational nature of the current study, we cannot rule out that the reported associations may be biased by unmeasured confounders. Conclusions High dialysate bicarbonate, especially prolonged exposure, may contribute to adverse outcomes, likely through development of post-dialysis metabolic alkalosis. Additional studies are warranted to identify the optimal dialysate bicarbonate concentration. PMID:23707043

Total Laryngectomy Versus Larynx Preservation for T4a Larynx Cancer: Patterns of Care and Survival Outcomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grover, Surbhi; Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita

2015-07-01

Purpose: To examine practice patterns and compare survival outcomes between total laryngectomy (TL) and larynx preservation chemoradiation (LP-CRT) in the setting of T4a larynx cancer, using a large national cancer registry. Methods and Materials: Using the National Cancer Database, we identified 969 patients from 2003 to 2006 with T4a squamous cell larynx cancer receiving definitive treatment with either initial TL plus adjuvant therapy or LP-CRT. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess predictors of undergoing surgery. Survival outcomes were compared using Kaplan-Meier and propensity score–adjusted and inverse probability of treatment–weighted Cox proportional hazards methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed tomore » account for unmeasured confounders. Results: A total of 616 patients (64%) received LP-CRT, and 353 (36%) received TL. On multivariable logistic regression, patients with advanced nodal disease were less likely to receive TL (N2 vs N0, 26.6% vs 43.4%, odds ratio [OR] 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-0.73; N3 vs N0, 19.1% vs 43.4%, OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.07-0.77), whereas patients treated in high case-volume facilities were more likely to receive TL (46.1% vs 31.5%, OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.27-2.48). Median survival for TL versus LP was 61 versus 39 months (P<.001). After controlling for potential confounders, LP-CRT had inferior overall survival compared with TL (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.57), and with the inverse probability of treatment–weighted model (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.05-1.49). This survival difference was shown to be robust on additional sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Most patients with T4a larynx cancer receive LP-CRT, despite guidelines suggesting TL as the preferred initial approach. Patients receiving LP-CRT had more advanced nodal disease and worse overall survival. Previous studies of (non-T4a) locally advanced larynx cancer showing no difference in survival between LP-CRT and TL may not apply to T4a disease, and patients should be counseled accordingly.« less

Current Parental Depression and Offspring Perceived Self-Competence: A Quasi-Experimental Examination

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Singh, Amber L.; Ganiban, Jody M.; Spotts, E. L.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Reiss, David; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.

2013-01-01

A genetically-informed, quasi-experimental design was used to examine the genetic and environmental processes underlying associations between current parental depressive symptoms and offspring perceived self-competence. Participants, drawn from a population-based Swedish sample, were 852 twin pairs and their male (52%) and female offspring aged 15.7 ± 2.4 years. Parental depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. Offspring perceived self-competence was measured using a modified Harter Perceived Competence Scale. Cousin comparisons and Children of Twins (CoT) designs suggested that associations between maternal depressive symptoms and offspring perceived self-competence were due to shared genetic/environmental liability. The mechanism responsible for father-offspring associations, however, was independent of genetic factors and of extended-family environmental factors, supporting a causal inference. Thus, mothers and fathers may impact offspring perceived self-competence via different mechanisms and unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying the intergenerational transmission of cognitive vulnerabilities for depression. PMID:22692226

Current parental depression and offspring perceived self-competence: a quasi-experimental examination.

PubMed

Class, Quetzal A; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Singh, Amber L; Ganiban, Jody M; Spotts, E L; Lichtenstein, Paul; Reiss, David; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

2012-09-01

A genetically-informed, quasi-experimental design was used to examine the genetic and environmental processes underlying associations between current parental depressive symptoms and offspring perceived self-competence. Participants, drawn from a population-based Swedish sample, were 852 twin pairs and their male (52 %) and female offspring aged 15.7 ± 2.4 years. Parental depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. Offspring perceived self-competence was measured using a modified Harter Perceived Competence Scale. Cousin comparisons and Children of Twins designs suggested that associations between maternal depressive symptoms and offspring perceived self-competence were due to shared genetic/environmental liability. The mechanism responsible for father-offspring associations, however, was independent of genetic factors and of extended family environmental factors, supporting a causal inference. Thus, mothers and fathers may impact offspring perceived self-competence via different mechanisms and unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying the intergenerational transmission of cognitive vulnerabilities for depression.

Ultrasound Elastography and MR Elastography for Assessing Liver Fibrosis: Part 2, Diagnostic Performance, Confounders, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Tang, An; Cloutier, Guy; Szeverenyi, Nikolaus M.; Sirlin, Claude B.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE The purpose of the article is to review the diagnostic performance of ultrasound and MR elastography techniques for detection and staging of liver fibrosis, the main current clinical applications of elastography in the abdomen. CONCLUSION Technical and instrument-related factors and biologic and patient-related factors may constitute potential confounders of stiffness measurements for assessment of liver fibrosis. Future developments may expand the scope of elastography for monitoring liver fibrosis and predict complications of chronic liver disease. PMID:25905762

Unraveling the covariation of low self-control and victimization: a behavior genetic approach.

PubMed

Boutwell, Brian B; Franklin, Cortney A; Barnes, J C; Tamplin, Amanda K; Beaver, Kevin M; Petkovsek, Melissa

2013-08-01

A growing body of literature examining the antecedents of victimization experiences has suggested that personality constructs play a role in the origins of victimization. Low self-control, in particular, represents a trait thought to directly increase the risk of victimization. At the same time, different lines of evidence suggest that genetic factors account for portions of the variance in both self-control and victimization. These findings leave open the possibility that the two traits might covary because of previously unmeasured genetic factors. The current analysis seeks to test this possibility. Additionally, we examine whether the covariation between self-control and victimization persists once genetic effects are held constant. Our findings suggest a nuanced explanation for the relationship between self-control and experiences of victimization. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unilateral spatial neglect in the acute phase of ischemic stroke can predict long-term disability and functional capacity.

PubMed

Luvizutto, Gustavo José; Moliga, Augusta Fabiana; Rizzatti, Gabriela Rizzo Soares; Fogaroli, Marcelo Ortolani; Moura Neto, Eduardo de; Nunes, Hélio Rubens de Carvalho; Resende, Luiz Antônio de Lima; Bazan, Rodrigo

2018-05-21

The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the degree of unilateral spatial neglect during the acute phase of stroke and long-term functional independence. This was a prospective study of right ischemic stroke patients in which the independent variable was the degree of spatial neglect and the outcome that was measured was functional independence. The potential confounding factors included sex, age, stroke severity, topography of the lesion, risk factors, glycemia and the treatment received. Unilateral spatial neglect was measured using the line cancellation test, the star cancellation test and the line bisection test within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms. Functional independence was measured using the modified Rankin and Barthel scales at 90 days after discharge. The relationship between unilateral spatial neglect and functional independence was analyzed using multiple logistic regression that was corrected for confounding factors. We studied 60 patients with a median age of 68 (34-89) years, 52% of whom were male and 74% of whom were Caucasian. The risk for moderate to severe disability increased with increasing star cancellation test scores (OR=1.14 [1.03-1.26], p=0.01) corrected for the stroke severity, which was a confounding factor that had a statistically positive association with disability (OR=1.63 [1.13-2.65], p=0.01). The best chance of functional independence decreased with increasing star cancellation test scores (OR=0.86 [0.78-0.96], p=0.006) corrected for the stroke severity, which was a confounding factor that had a statistically negative association with independence (OR=0.66 [0.48-0.92], p=0.017). The severity of unilateral spatial neglect in acute stroke worsens the degree of long-term disability and functional independence.

Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors' Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers.

PubMed

McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Shaw, William; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Soklaridis, Sophie

2015-09-01

To determine the association between supervisors' leadership style and autonomy and supervisors' likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors' likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale (JAS). We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β = .012; 95% CI .009-.016) and autonomy (β = .066; 95% CI .025-.11) were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI -.0026 to .0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability.

Detecting Hidden Diversification Shifts in Models of Trait-Dependent Speciation and Extinction.

PubMed

Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

2016-07-01

The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are "hidden" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Association between day of delivery and obstetric outcomes: observational study.

PubMed

Palmer, William L; Bottle, A; Aylin, P

2015-11-24

What is the association between day of delivery and measures of quality and safety of maternity services, particularly comparing weekend with weekday performance? This observational study examined outcomes for maternal and neonatal records (1,332,835 deliveries and 1,349,599 births between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2012) within the nationwide administrative dataset for English National Health Service hospitals by day of the week. Groups were defined by day of admission (for maternal indicators) or delivery (for neonatal indicators) rather than by day of complication. Logistic regression was used to adjust for case mix factors including gestational age, birth weight, and maternal age. Staffing factors were also investigated using multilevel models to evaluate the association between outcomes and level of consultant presence. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and-for both neonate and mother-infections, emergency readmissions, and injuries. Performance across four of the seven measures was significantly worse for women admitted, and babies born, at weekends. In particular, the perinatal mortality rate was 7.3 per 1000 babies delivered at weekends, 0.9 per 1000 higher than for weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.13). No consistent association between outcomes and staffing was identified, although trusts that complied with recommended levels of consultant presence had a perineal tear rate of 3.0% compared with 3.3% for non-compliant services (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 1.00 to 1.45). Limitations of the analysis include the method of categorising performance temporally, which was mitigated by using a midweek reference day (Tuesday). Further research is needed to investigate possible bias from unmeasured confounders and explore the nature of the causal relationship. This study provides an evaluation of the "weekend effect" in obstetric care, covering a range of outcomes. The results would suggest approximately 770 perinatal deaths and 470 maternal infections per year above what might be expected if performance was consistent across women admitted, and babies born, on different days of the week. The research was partially funded by Dr Foster Intelligence and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Patient Safety Translational Research Centre in partnership with the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance at Imperial College London. WLP was supported by the National Audit Office. © Palmer et al 2015.

Relation of urbanization to stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics in nine metropolitan areas of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Faith A.; Peppler, Marie C.

2010-01-01

The relation of urbanization to stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics was examined collectively and individually for nine metropolitan areas of the United States?Portland, Oregon; Salt Lake City, Utah; Denver, Colorado; Dallas?Forth Worth, Texas; Milwaukee?Green Bay, Wisconsin; Birmingham, Alabama; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Boston, Massachusetts. The study was part of a larger study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1999 to 2004 to examine the effects of urbanization on the physical, chemical, and biological components of stream ecosystems. The objectives of the current study were to determine how stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics relate to different aspects of urbanization across a variety of diverse environmental settings and spatial scales. A space-for-time rural-to-urban land-cover gradient approach was used. Reach-scale habitat data and geomorphic characteristic data were collected once during low flow and included indicators of potential habitat degradation such as measures of channel geometry and hydraulics, streambed substrate, low-flow reach volume (an estimate of base-flow conditions), habitat complexity, and riparian/bank conditions. Hydrologic metrics included in the analyses were those expected to be altered by increases in impervious surfaces, such as high-flow frequency and duration, flashiness, and low-flow duration. Other natural and human features, such as reach-scale channel engineering, geologic setting, and slope, were quantified to identify their possible confounding influences on habitat relations with watershed-scale urbanization indicators. Habitat and geomorphic characteristics were compared to several watershed-scale indicators of urbanization, natural landscape characteristics, and hydrologic metrics by use of correlation analyses and stepwise linear regression. Habitat and geomorphic characteristics were related to percentages of impervious surfaces only in some metropolitan areas and environmental settings. The relations between watershed-scale indicators of urbanization and stream habitat depended on physiography and climate, hydrology, pre-urban channel alterations, reach-scale slope and presence of bedrock, and amount of bank stabilization and grade control. Channels increased in size with increasing percentages of impervious surfaces in southeastern and midwestern metropolitan areas regardless of whether the pre-existing land use was forest or agriculture. The amount of enlargement depended on annual precipitation and frequency of high-flow events. The lack of a relation between channel enlargement and increasing impervious surfaces in other metropolitan areas was thought to be confounded by pre-urbanization hydrologic and channel alterations. Direct relations of channel shape and streambed substrate to urbanization were variable or lacking, probably because the type, amount, and source of sediment are dependent on the phase of urbanization. Reach-scale slope also was important for determining variations in streambed substrate and habitat complexity (percentage of riffles and runs). Urbanization-associated changes in reach-scale riparian vegetation varied geographically, partially depending on pre-existing riparian vegetation characteristics. Bank erosion increased in Milwaukee?Green Bay and Boston urban streams, and bank erosion also increased with an increase in a streamflow flashiness index. However, potential relations likely were confounded by the frequent use of channel stabilization and bank protection in urban settings. Low-flow reach volume did not decrease with increasing urbanization, but instead was related to natural landscape characteristics and possibly other unmeasured factors. The presence of intermittent bedrock in some sampled reaches likely limited some geomorphic responses to urbanization, such as channel bed erosion. Results from this study emphasize the importance of including a wide range of landscape variables at m

Risk of hematological malignancies associated with magnetic fields exposure from power lines: a case-control study in two municipalities of northern Italy.

PubMed

Malagoli, Carlotta; Fabbi, Sara; Teggi, Sergio; Calzari, Mariagiulia; Poli, Maurizio; Ballotti, Elena; Notari, Barbara; Bruni, Maurizio; Palazzi, Giovanni; Paolucci, Paolo; Vinceti, Marco

2010-03-30

Some epidemiologic studies have suggested an association between electromagnetic field exposure induced by high voltage power lines and childhood leukemia, but null results have also been yielded and the possibility of bias due to unmeasured confounders has been suggested. We studied this relation in the Modena and Reggio Emilia municipalities of northern Italy, identifying the corridors along high voltage power lines with calculated magnetic field intensity in the 0.1-<0.2, 0.2-<0.4, and > or = 0.4 microTesla ranges. We identified 64 cases of newly-diagnosed hematological malignancies in children aged <14 within these municipalities from 1986 to 2007, and we sampled four matched controls for each case, collecting information on historical residence and parental socioeconomic status of these subjects. Relative risk of leukemia associated with antecedent residence in the area with exposure > or = 0.1 microTesla was 3.2 (6.7 adjusting for socioeconomic status), but this estimate was statistically very unstable, its 95% confidence interval being 0.4-23.4, and no indication of a dose-response relation emerged. Relative risk for acute lymphoblastic leukemia was 5.3 (95% confidence interval 0.7-43.5), while there was no increased risk for the other hematological malignancies. Though the number of exposed children in this study was too low to allow firm conclusions, results were more suggestive of an excess risk of leukemia among exposed children than of a null relation.

Associations between schistosomiasis and the use of human waste as an agricultural fertilizer in China.

PubMed

Carlton, Elizabeth J; Liu, Yang; Zhong, Bo; Hubbard, Alan; Spear, Robert C

2015-01-01

Human waste is used as an agricultural fertilizer in China and elsewhere. Because the eggs of many helminth species can survive in environmental media, reuse of untreated or partially treated human waste, commonly called night soil, may promote transmission of human helminthiases. We conducted an open cohort study in 36 villages to evaluate the association between night soil use and schistosomiasis in a region of China where schistosomiasis has reemerged and persisted despite control activities. We tested 2,005 residents for Schistosoma japonicum infection in 2007 and 1,365 residents in 2010 and interviewed heads of household about agricultural practices each study year. We used an intervention attributable ratio framework to estimate the association between night soil use and S. japonicum infection. Night soil use was reported by half of households (56% in 2007 and 46% in 2010). Village night soil use was strongly associated with human S. japonicum infection in 2007. We estimate cessation of night soil use would lead to a 49% reduction in infection prevalence in 2007 (95% CI: 12%, 71%). However, no association between night soil and schistosomiasis was observed in 2010. These inconsistent findings may be due to unmeasured confounding or temporal shifts in the importance of different sources of S. japonicum eggs on the margins of disease elimination. The use of untreated or partially treated human waste as an agricultural fertilizer may be a barrier to permanent reductions in human helminthiases. This practice warrants further attention by the public health community.

Assessing effects of cholera vaccination in the presence of interference.

PubMed

Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Hudgens, Michael G; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Clemens, John D; Ali, Mohammad; Emch, Michael E

2014-09-01

Interference occurs when the treatment of one person affects the outcome of another. For example, in infectious diseases, whether one individual is vaccinated may affect whether another individual becomes infected or develops disease. Quantifying such indirect (or spillover) effects of vaccination could have important public health or policy implications. In this article we use recently developed inverse-probability weighted (IPW) estimators of treatment effects in the presence of interference to analyze an individually-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of cholera vaccination that targeted 121,982 individuals in Matlab, Bangladesh. Because these IPW estimators have not been employed previously, a simulation study was also conducted to assess the empirical behavior of the estimators in settings similar to the cholera vaccine trial. Simulation study results demonstrate the IPW estimators can yield unbiased estimates of the direct, indirect, total, and overall effects of vaccination when there is interference provided the untestable no unmeasured confounders assumption holds and the group-level propensity score model is correctly specified. Application of the IPW estimators to the cholera vaccine trial indicates the presence of interference. For example, the IPW estimates suggest on average 5.29 fewer cases of cholera per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval 2.61, 7.96) will occur among unvaccinated individuals within neighborhoods with 60% vaccine coverage compared to neighborhoods with 32% coverage. Our analysis also demonstrates how not accounting for interference can render misleading conclusions about the public health utility of vaccination. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Implementation and reporting of causal mediation analysis in 2015: a systematic review in epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Liu, Shao-Hsien; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-07-20

Causal mediation analysis is often used to understand the impact of variables along the causal pathway of an occurrence relation. How well studies apply and report the elements of causal mediation analysis remains unknown. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published in 2015 that employed causal mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of observed associations between an exposure on an outcome. We identified potential epidemiological studies through conducting a citation search within Web of Science and a keyword search within PubMed. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility. For eligible studies, one reviewer performed data extraction, and a senior epidemiologist confirmed the extracted information. Empirical application and methodological details of the technique were extracted and summarized. Thirteen studies were eligible for data extraction. While the majority of studies reported and identified the effects of measures, most studies lacked sufficient details on the extent to which identifiability assumptions were satisfied. Although most studies addressed issues of unmeasured confounders either from empirical approaches or sensitivity analyses, the majority did not examine the potential bias arising from the measurement error of the mediator. Some studies allowed for exposure-mediator interaction and only a few presented results from models both with and without interactions. Power calculations were scarce. Reporting of causal mediation analysis is varied and suboptimal. Given that the application of causal mediation analysis will likely continue to increase, developing standards of reporting of causal mediation analysis in epidemiological research would be prudent.

Invited Commentary: Using Financial Credits as Instrumental Variables for Estimating the Causal Relationship Between Income and Health.

PubMed

Pega, Frank

2016-05-01

Social epidemiologists are interested in determining the causal relationship between income and health. Natural experiments in which individuals or groups receive income randomly or quasi-randomly from financial credits (e.g., tax credits or cash transfers) are increasingly being analyzed using instrumental variable analysis. For example, in this issue of the Journal, Hamad and Rehkopf (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(9):775-784) used an in-work tax credit called the Earned Income Tax Credit as an instrument to estimate the association between income and child development. However, under certain conditions, the use of financial credits as instruments could violate 2 key instrumental variable analytic assumptions. First, some financial credits may directly influence health, for example, through increasing a psychological sense of welfare security. Second, financial credits and health may have several unmeasured common causes, such as politics, other social policies, and the motivation to maximize the credit. If epidemiologists pursue such instrumental variable analyses, using the amount of an unconditional, universal credit that an individual or group has received as the instrument may produce the most conceptually convincing and generalizable evidence. However, other natural income experiments (e.g., lottery winnings) and other methods that allow better adjustment for confounding might be more promising approaches for estimating the causal relationship between income and health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Yes, health is important, but as much for its importance via social life: The direct and indirect effects of health on subjective well-being in chronically ill individuals.

PubMed

Lamu, Admassu N; Olsen, Jan Abel

2018-01-01

There is an increasing evidence that health-related quality of life, income, and social relationships are important to our subjective well-being (SWB). Little is known, however, about the specific indirect pathways that link health to SWB via social relationships and income. On the basis of a unique data set of 7 disease groups from 6 OECD-countries (N = 6,173), we investigate the direct and indirect effects of health on SWB by using structural equation modeling. Three alternative measures of health are used: For generic instruments (EQ-5D-5L; SF-6D), the total indirect effect was stronger (0.226; 0.249) than its direct effect (0.157; 0.205). For the visual analogue scale, the direct effect was stronger (0.322) than its total indirect effect (0.179). Most of the indirect effect of improved health on SWB transmitted through social relationships. The effect via income was small. Nevertheless, the presence of unmeasured confounders may bias the estimates. An important lesson for researchers is to include meaningful items on social relationships when measuring the benefits from improved health. An important lesson for policy makers is that social isolation appears to be more detrimental to overall well-being than ill health. Hence, the Health and Care Services should facilitate social arenas for people with chronic conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cognitive Enhancement in Infants Associated with Increased Maternal Fruit Intake During Pregnancy: Results from a Birth Cohort Study with Validation in an Animal Model.

PubMed

Bolduc, Francois V; Lau, Amanda; Rosenfelt, Cory S; Langer, Steven; Wang, Nan; Smithson, Lisa; Lefebvre, Diana; Alexander, R Todd; Dickson, Clayton T; Li, Liang; Becker, Allan B; Subbarao, Padmaja; Turvey, Stuart E; Pei, Jacqueline; Sears, Malcolm R; Mandhane, Piush J

2016-06-01

In-utero nutrition is an under-studied aspect of cognitive development. Fruit has been an important dietary constituent for early hominins and humans. Among 808 eligible CHILD-Edmonton sub-cohort subjects, 688 (85%) had 1-year cognitive outcome data. We found that each maternal daily serving of fruit (sum of fruit plus 100% fruit juice) consumed during pregnancy was associated with a 2.38 point increase in 1-year cognitive development (95% CI 0.39, 4.37; p<0.05). Consistent with this, we found 30% higher learning Performance index (PI) scores in Drosophila offspring from parents who consumed 30% fruit juice supplementation prenatally (PI: 85.7; SE 1.8; p<0.05) compared to the offspring of standard diet parents (PI: 65.0 SE 3.4). Using the Drosophila model, we also show that the cyclic adenylate monophosphate (cAMP) pathway may be a major regulator of this effect, as prenatal fruit associated cognitive enhancement was blocked in Drosophila rutabaga mutants with reduced Ca(2+)-Calmodulin-dependent adenylyl cyclase. Moreover, gestation is a critical time for this effect as postnatal fruit intake did not enhance cognitive performance in either humans or Drosophila. Our study supports increased fruit consumption during pregnancy with significant increases in infant cognitive performance. Validation in Drosophila helps control for potential participant bias or unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is the association between posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and poor health due to a common familial or genetic factor?

PubMed Central

Roy-Byrne, Peter P.; Noonan, Carolyn; Afari, Niloofar; Buchwald, Dedra; Goldberg, Jack

2010-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to identify genetic, familial and environmental contributions to the association between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and poor health. Methods A community sample of 1852 twin pairs was assessed for symptoms of PTSD [with the Impact of Events Scale (IES)] and self-reported global health status using a single five-level question. An ordinal logistic regression model estimated odds ratio/s (OR) for the association between PTSD and health status. Within-pair analysis assessed confounding by familial and genetic factors and adjusted for the possible confounding influence of age, sex, race, education and self-reported physician diagnosis of depression. Results The IES was strongly and significantly associated with self-reported health [OR = 1.8; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.5–2.2; highest quartile vs. lowest quartile]. This association remained significant in within-pair analysis (OR = 1.3; 95% CI=1.0–1.7), but after further adjustment for sociodemographics and depression, it was no longer significant (Ptrend=.17). Separate analysis by zygosity did not show differential effect in monozygotic or dizygotic pairs. Conclusion These findings suggest that the association between PTSD symptoms and poor health is, in part, due to familial confounding and sociodemographic factors. Little evidence of confounding by genetic factors was found. These findings suggest that early prevention efforts would have the greatest potential for improving poor health in PTSD-prone patients, whereas later intervention efforts directed at treating PTSD may have a more limited impact on improving poor health. PMID:16950376

A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.

2008-01-01

Stream temperature is an important component of salmonid habitat and is often above levels suitable for fish survival in the Lower Klamath River in northern California. The objective of this study was to provide boundary conditions for models that are assessing stream temperature on the main stem for the purpose of developing strategies to manage stream conditions using Total Maximum Daily Loads. For model input, hourly stream temperatures for 36 tributaries were estimated for 1 Jan. 2001 through 31 Oct. 2004. A basin-scale approach incorporating spatially distributed energy balance data was used to estimate the stream temperatures with measured air temperature and relative humidity data and simulated solar radiation, including topographic shading and corrections for cloudiness. Regression models were developed on the basis of available stream temperature data to predict temperatures for unmeasured periods of time and for unmeasured streams. The most significant factor in matching measured minimum and maximum stream temperatures was the seasonality of the estimate. Adding minimum and maximum air temperature to the regression model improved the estimate, and air temperature data over the region are available and easily distributed spatially. The addition of simulated solar radiation and vapor saturation deficit to the regression model significantly improved predictions of maximum stream temperature but was not required to predict minimum stream temperature. The average SE in estimated maximum daily stream temperature for the individual basins was 0.9 ?? 0.6??C at the 95% confidence interval. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Sleeping with one eye open: loneliness and sleep quality in young adults.

PubMed

Matthews, T; Danese, A; Gregory, A M; Caspi, A; Moffitt, T E; Arseneault, L

2017-09-01

Feelings of loneliness are common among young adults, and are hypothesized to impair the quality of sleep. In the present study, we tested associations between loneliness and sleep quality in a nationally representative sample of young adults. Further, based on the hypothesis that sleep problems in lonely individuals are driven by increased vigilance for threat, we tested whether past exposure to violence exacerbated this association. Data were drawn from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a birth cohort of 2232 twins born in England and Wales in 1994 and 1995. We measured loneliness using items from the UCLA Loneliness Scale, and sleep quality using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. We controlled for covariates including social isolation, psychopathology, employment status and being a parent of an infant. We examined twin differences to control for unmeasured genetic and family environment factors. Feelings of loneliness were associated with worse overall sleep quality. Loneliness was associated specifically with subjective sleep quality and daytime dysfunction. These associations were robust to controls for covariates. Among monozygotic twins, within-twin pair differences in loneliness were significantly associated with within-pair differences in sleep quality, indicating an association independent of unmeasured familial influences. The association between loneliness and sleep quality was exacerbated among individuals exposed to violence victimization in adolescence or maltreatment in childhood. Loneliness is robustly associated with poorer sleep quality in young people, underscoring the importance of early interventions to mitigate the long-term outcomes of loneliness. Special care should be directed towards individuals who have experienced victimization.

Finite-time output feedback control of uncertain switched systems via sliding mode design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haijuan; Niu, Yugang; Song, Jun

2018-04-01

The problem of sliding mode control (SMC) is investigated for a class of uncertain switched systems subject to unmeasurable state and assigned finite (possible short) time constraint. A key issue is how to ensure the finite-time boundedness (FTB) of system state during reaching phase and sliding motion phase. To this end, a state observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasured states. And then, a state estimate-based SMC law is designed such that the state trajectories can be driven onto the specified integral sliding surface during the assigned finite time interval. By means of partitioning strategy, the corresponding FTB over reaching phase and sliding motion phase are guaranteed and the sufficient conditions are derived via average dwell time technique. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the proposed method.

How do race and Hispanic ethnicity affect nursing home admission? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

PubMed

Thomeer, Mieke Beth; Mudrazija, Stipica; Angel, Jacqueline L

2015-07-01

This study investigates how health- and disability-based need factors and enabling factors (e.g., socioeconomic and family-based resources) relate to nursing home admission among 3 different racial and ethnic groups. We use Cox proportional hazard models to estimate differences in nursing home admission for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics from 1998 to 2010 in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 18,952). Racial-ethnic differences in nursing home admission are magnified after controlling for health- and disability-based need factors and enabling factors. Additionally, the degree to which specific factors contribute to risk of nursing home admission varies significantly across racial-ethnic groups. Our findings indicate that substantial racial and ethnic variations in nursing home admission continue to exist and that Hispanic use is particularly low. We argue that these differences may demonstrate a significant underuse of nursing homes for racial and ethnic minorities. Alternatively, they could signify different preferences for nursing home care, perhaps due to unmeasured cultural factors or structural obstacles. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Concentrations of Water-Soluble Vitamins in Blood and Urinary Excretion in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Iwakawa, Hiromi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fukui, Tomiho; Fukuwatari, Tsutomu; Ugi, Satoshi; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Doi, Yukio; Shibata, Katsumi

2016-01-01

We examined the concentrations of water-soluble vitamins in blood and urinary excretion of 22 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2DM) and 20 healthy control participants. Macronutrient and vitamin intakes of type 2DM subjects were measured using a weighed food record method. Control participants consumed a semipurified diet for eight days. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine whether significant differences existed in vitamin concentrations in blood independent of age, sex, and other confounding factors. Concentrations of vitamins B2, B6, C, niacin, and folate in blood were significantly lower in type 2DM subjects than in controls, independent of confounding factors. Renal clearances of vitamins B6, C, niacin, and folate were significantly higher in type 2DM subjects than in controls. In conclusion, concentrations of vitamins B2, B6, C, niacin, and folate in blood were significantly lower in type 2DM subjects than in controls, independent of confounding factors; based on the evidence of increased urinary clearance of these vitamins, the lower levels were likely due to impaired reabsorption processes.

A variational technique for smoothing flight-test and accident data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bach, R. E., Jr.

1980-01-01

The problem of determining aircraft motions along a trajectory is solved using a variational algorithm that generates unmeasured states and forcing functions, and estimates instrument bias and scale-factor errors. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear fixed-interval smoothing problem, and is solved as a sequence of linear two-point boundary value problems, using a sweep method. The algorithm has been implemented for use in flight-test and accident analysis. Aircraft motions are assumed to be governed by a six-degree-of-freedom kinematic model; forcing functions consist of body accelerations and winds, and the measurement model includes aerodynamic and radar data. Examples of the determination of aircraft motions from typical flight-test and accident data are presented.

Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors’ Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers

PubMed Central

McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Shaw, William; Soklaridis, Sophie

2015-01-01

PURPOSE To determine the association between supervisors’ leadership style and autonomy and supervisors’ likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. METHODS A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors’ likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale. We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. RESULTS A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β= .012; 95% CI: .009–.016) and autonomy (β= .066; 95% CI: .025–.11) were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI: −.0026–.0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. CONCLUSIONS Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability. PMID:25595332

Selection bias and patterns of confounding in cohort studies: the case of the NINFEA web-based birth cohort.

PubMed

Pizzi, Costanza; De Stavola, Bianca L; Pearce, Neil; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Ghiotti, Paola; Merletti, Franco; Richiardi, Lorenzo

2012-11-01

Several studies have examined the effects of sample selection on the exposure-outcome association estimates in cohort studies, but the reasons why this selection may induce bias have not been fully explored. To investigate how sample selection of the web-based NINFEA birth cohort may change the confounding patterns present in the source population. The characteristics of the NINFEA participants (n=1105) were compared with those of the wider source population-the Piedmont Birth Registry (PBR)-(n=36 092), and the association of two exposures (parity and educational level) with two outcomes (low birth weight and birth by caesarean section), while controlling for other risk factors, was studied. Specifically the associations among measured risk factors within each dataset were examined and the exposure-outcome estimates compared in terms of relative ORs. The associations of educational level with the other risk factors (alcohol consumption, folic acid intake, maternal age, pregnancy weight gain, previous miscarriages) partly differed between PBR and NINFEA. This was not observed for parity. Overall, the exposure-outcome estimates derived from NINFEA only differed moderately from those obtained in PBR, with relative ORs ranging between 0.74 and 1.03. Sample selection in cohort studies may alter the confounding patterns originally present in the general population. However, this does not necessarily introduce selection bias in the exposure-outcome estimates, as sample selection may reduce some of the residual confounding present in the general population.

Is social class standardisation appropriate in occupational studies?

PubMed Central

Brisson, C; Loomis, D; Pearce, N

1987-01-01

Social class standardisation has been proposed as a method for separating the effects of occupation and "social" or "lifestyle" factors in epidemiological studies, by comparing workers in a particular occupation with other workers in the same social class. The validity of this method rests upon two assumptions: (1) that social factors have the same effect in all occupational groups in the same social class, and (2) that other workers in the same social class as the workers being studied are free of occupational risk factors for the disease of interest. These assumptions will not always be satisfied. In particular, the effect of occupation will be underestimated when the comparison group also has job-related exposures which cause the disease under study. Thus, although adjustment for social class may minimise bias due to social factors, it may introduce bias due to unmeasured occupational factors. This difficulty may be magnified when occupational category is used as the measure of social class. Because of this potential bias, adjustment for social class should be done only after careful consideration of the exposures and disease involved and should be based on an appropriate definition of social class. Both crude and standardised results should be presented when such adjustments are made. PMID:3455422

A Bayesian Framework to Account for Complex Non-Genetic Factors in Gene Expression Levels Greatly Increases Power in eQTL Studies

PubMed Central

Durbin, Richard; Winn, John

2010-01-01

Gene expression measurements are influenced by a wide range of factors, such as the state of the cell, experimental conditions and variants in the sequence of regulatory regions. To understand the effect of a variable of interest, such as the genotype of a locus, it is important to account for variation that is due to confounding causes. Here, we present VBQTL, a probabilistic approach for mapping expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) that jointly models contributions from genotype as well as known and hidden confounding factors. VBQTL is implemented within an efficient and flexible inference framework, making it fast and tractable on large-scale problems. We compare the performance of VBQTL with alternative methods for dealing with confounding variability on eQTL mapping datasets from simulations, yeast, mouse, and human. Employing Bayesian complexity control and joint modelling is shown to result in more precise estimates of the contribution of different confounding factors resulting in additional associations to measured transcript levels compared to alternative approaches. We present a threefold larger collection of cis eQTLs than previously found in a whole-genome eQTL scan of an outbred human population. Altogether, 27% of the tested probes show a significant genetic association in cis, and we validate that the additional eQTLs are likely to be real by replicating them in different sets of individuals. Our method is the next step in the analysis of high-dimensional phenotype data, and its application has revealed insights into genetic regulation of gene expression by demonstrating more abundant cis-acting eQTLs in human than previously shown. Our software is freely available online at http://www.sanger.ac.uk/resources/software/peer/. PMID:20463871

Influence of GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes and confounding factors on the frequency of sister chromatid exchange and micronucleus among road construction workers.

PubMed

Kumar, Anil; Yadav, Anita; Giri, Shiv Kumar; Dev, Kapil; Gautam, Sanjeev Kumar; Gupta, Ranjan; Aggarwal, Neeraj

2011-07-01

In the present study, we have investigated the influence of polymorphism of GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes and confounding factors such as age, sex, exposure duration and consumption habits on cytogenetic biomarkers. Frequency of sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs), high frequency cell (HFC) and cytokinesis blocked micronuclei (CBMN) were evaluated in peripheral blood lymphocytes of 115 occupationally exposed road construction workers and 105 unexposed individuals. The distribution of null and positive genotypes of glutathione-S transferase gene was evaluated by multiplex PCR among control and exposed subjects. An increased frequency of CBMN (7.03±2.08); SCE (6.95±1.76) and HFC (6.28±1.69) were found in exposed subjects when compared to referent (CBMN - 3.35±1.10; SCE - 4.13±1.30 and HFC - 3.98±1.56). These results were found statistically significant at p<0.05. When the effect of confounding factors on the frequency of studied biomarkers was evaluated, a strong positive interaction was found. The individuals having GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes had higher frequency of CBMN, SCE and HFC. The association between GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes and studied biomarkers was found statistically significant at p<0.05. Our findings suggest that individuals having null type of GST are more susceptible to cytogenetic damage by occupational exposure regardless of confounding factors. There is a significant effect of polymorphism of these genes on cytogenetic biomarkers which are considered as early effects of genotoxic carcinogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corporal punishment and the growth trajectory of children's antisocial behavior.

PubMed

Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew

2005-08-01

Despite considerable research, the relationship between corporal punishment and antisocial behavior is unclear. This analysis examined (a) the functional form of this relationship, (b) the correlation of initial antisocial behavior and changes in antisocial behavior, (c) differences in the relationship of corporal punishment and antisocial behavior by race, and (d) whether this relationship could be accounted for by unmeasured characteristics of children and their families. Data from 6,912 children in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth were analyzed using hierarchical linear models. Findings suggested that corporal punishment has a relationship with children's initial antisocial behavior and with changes in antisocial behavior. No evidence was found for differences in the effect of corporal punishment across racial groups. The relationship between corporal punishment and antisocial behavior persists even when accounting for unmeasured time invariant characteristics of children and families. The findings suggest that corporal punishment is not a preferable technique for disciplining children.

Glaucoma Blindness at a Tertiary Eye Care Center.

PubMed

Stone, Jordan S; Muir, Kelly W; Stinnett, Sandra S; Rosdahl, Jullia A

2015-01-01

Glaucoma is an important cause of irreversible blindness. This study describes the characteristics of a large, diverse group of glaucoma patients and evaluates associations between demographic and clinical characteristics and blindness. Data were gathered via retrospective chart review of patients (N = 1,454) who were seen between July 2007 and July 2010 by glaucoma service providers at Duke Eye Center. Visual acuity and visual field criteria were used to determine whether patients met the criteria for legal blindness. Descriptive and comparative statistical analyses were performed on the glaucoma patients who were not blind (n = 1,258) and those who were blind (n = 196). A subgroup analysis of only those patients with primary open-angle glaucoma was also performed. In this tertiary care population, 13% (n = 196) of glaucoma patients met criteria for legal blindness, nearly one-half of whom (n = 94) were blind from glaucoma, and another one-third of whom (n = 69) had glaucoma-related blindness. The most common glaucoma diagnosis at all levels of vision was primary open-angle glaucoma. A larger proportion of black patients compared with white patients demonstrated vision loss; the odds ratio (OR) for blindness was 2.25 (95% CI, 1.6-3.2) for black patients compared with white patients. The use of systemic antihypertensive medications was higher among patients who were blind compared with patients who were not blind (OR = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4-3.1). A subgroup analysis including only patients with primary open-angle glaucoma showed similar results for both black race and use of systemic antihypertensive medications. The relationship between use of systemic antihypertensive medications and blindness was not different between black patients and white patients (interaction P = .268). Data were based on chart review, and associations may be confounded by unmeasured factors. Treated systemic hypertension may be correlated with blindness, and the cause cannot be explained solely by race. In addition, this study demonstrated that there is continued disparity between black patients and white patients with regards to blindness from glaucoma. ©2015 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.

Glaucoma Blindness at a Tertiary Eye Care Center

PubMed Central

Stone, Jordan S.; Muir, Kelly W.; Stinnett, Sandra S.; Rosdahl, Jullia A.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND Glaucoma is an important cause of irreversible blindness. This study describes the characteristics of a large, diverse group of glaucoma patients and evaluates associations between demographic and clinical characteristics and blindness. METHODS Data were gathered via retrospective chart review of patients (N = 1,454) who were seen between July 2007 and July 2010 by glaucoma service providers at Duke Eye Center. Visual acuity and visual field criteria were used to determine whether patients met the criteria for legal blindness. Descriptive and comparative statistical analyses were performed on the glaucoma patients who were not blind (n = 1,258) and those who were blind (n = 196). A subgroup analysis of only those patients with primary open-angle glaucoma was also performed. RESULTS In this tertiary care population, 13% (n = 196) of glaucoma patients met criteria for legal blindness, nearly one-half of whom (n = 94) were blind from glaucoma, and another one-third of whom (n = 69) had glaucoma-related blindness. The most common glaucoma diagnosis at all levels of vision was primary open-angle glaucoma. A larger proportion of black patients compared with white patients demonstrated vision loss; the odds ratio (OR) for blindness was 2.25 (95% CI, 1.6–3.2) for black patients compared with white patients. The use of systemic antihypertensive medications was higher among patients who were blind compared with patients who were not blind (OR = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4–3.1). A subgroup analysis including only patients with primary open-angle glaucoma showed similar results for both black race and use of systemic antihypertensive medications. The relationship between use of systemic antihypertensive medications and blindness was not different between black patients and white patients (interaction P = .268). LIMITATIONS Data were based on chart review, and associations may be confounded by unmeasured factors. CONCLUSIONS Treated systemic hypertension may be correlated with blindness, and the cause cannot be explained solely by race. In addition, this study demonstrated that there is continued disparity between black patients and white patients with regards to blindness from glaucoma. PMID:26509509

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in the clinical management of acute COPD in 233 UK hospitals: results from the RCP/BTS 2003 National COPD Audit.

PubMed

Kaul, Sundeep; Pearson, Michael; Coutts, Ian; Lowe, Derek; Roberts, Michael

2009-06-01

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is a clinically proven, cost-effective intervention for acidotic exacerbations of COPD that is recommended by UK national guidelines. This study examines the extent to which these recommendations are being followed in the UK. Between August and October 2003 a national audit of COPD exacerbations was conducted by the Royal College of Physicians and the British Thoracic Society. 233 (94%) UK hospitals submitted data for 7,529 prospectively recruited acute COPD admissions, documenting process of care and outcomes from a retrospective case note audit. They also completed a resources and organisation of care proforma. Nineteen hospitals (8%) reported they did not offer NIV. There was no access to NIV in 92 (39%) intensive care units in 88 (36%), high-dependency units or on general wards of 85 (34%) hospitals. In 74 (30%) NIV was available on all 3 sites. A low pH (<7.35) was noted at some time during admission for 26% (1714/6544) of patients and NIV was administered to 31%. Patients receiving NIV were more often admitted under a respiratory physician, or seen at some stage by a respiratory specialist and had more severe disease (higher PaCO2 (median 9.8 v 7.8 kPa), lower oxygen tension (median 8.8 v 9.8 kPa), higher incidence of peripheral oedema (48% v 39%), of pneumonia (27% v 16%), higher in-hospital mortality (26% v 14%) and at 90 days (37% v 24%) and longer hospital stays (median 9 v 7 days) than those not receiving NIV. Hospitals with least usage of NIV had similar mortality rates to those using NIV more often. A comprehensive NIV service is not available in many hospitals admitting patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to COPD. Access to acute NIV is inadequate and does not conform with NICE and BTS guidelines. These observational audit data do not demonstrate benefits of NIV on survival when compared to conventional management, contrary to results from randomised trials. Reasons for this are unclear but unmeasured confounding factors and poor patient selection for NIV are likely explanations.

Characteristics of shift work and their impact on employee performance and wellbeing: A literature review.

PubMed

Dall'Ora, Chiara; Ball, Jane; Recio-Saucedo, Alejandra; Griffiths, Peter

2016-05-01

To identify the characteristics of shift work that have an effect on employee's performance (including job performance, productivity, safety, quality of care delivered, errors, adverse events and client satisfaction) and wellbeing (including burnout, job satisfaction, absenteeism, intention to leave the job) in all sectors including healthcare. A scoping review of the literature was undertaken. We searched electronic databases (CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsychINFO, SCOPUS) to identify primary quantitative studies. The search was conducted between January and March 2015. Studies were drawn from all occupational sectors (i.e. health and non health), meeting the inclusion criteria: involved participants aged ≥18 who have been working shifts or serve as control group for others working shifts, exploring the association of characteristics of shift work with at least one of the selected outcomes. Reference lists from retrieved studies were checked to identify any further studies. 35 studies were included in the review; 25 studies were performed in the health sector. A variety of shift work characteristics are associated with compromised employee's performance and wellbeing. Findings from large multicentre studies highlight that shifts of 12h or longer are associated with jeopardised outcomes. Working more than 40h per week is associated with adverse events, while no conclusive evidence was found regarding working a 'Compressed Working Week'; working overtime was associated with decreased job performance. Working rotating shifts was associated with worse job performance outcomes, whilst fixed night shifts appeared to enable resynchronisation. However, job satisfaction of employees working fixed nights was reduced. Timely breaks had a positive impact on employee fatigue and alertness, whilst quick returns between shifts appeared to increase pathologic fatigue. The effect of shift work characteristics on outcomes in the studies reviewed is consistent across occupational sectors. This review highlighted the complexity that encompasses shift work, but many studies do not account for this complexity. While some consistent associations emerge (e.g. 12h shifts and jeopardised outcomes), it is not always possible to conclude that results are not confounded by unmeasured factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hospitalization in daily home hemodialysis and matched thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Weinhandl, Eric D; Nieman, Kimberly M; Gilbertson, David T; Collins, Allan J

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a common cause of hospitalization in dialysis patients. Daily hemodialysis improves some parameters of cardiovascular function, but whether it associates with lower hospitalization risk is unclear. Observational cohort study using US Renal Data System data. Medicare-enrolled daily (5 or 6 sessions weekly) home hemodialysis (HHD) patients initiating NxStage System One use from January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2009, and contemporary thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis patients, matched 5 to 1. Daily HHD or thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis. All-cause and cause-specific hospital admissions, hospital readmissions, and hospital days assessed from Medicare Part A claims. For 3,480 daily HHD and 17,400 thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis patients in intention-to-treat analysis, the HR of all-cause admission for daily HHD versus in-center hemodialysis was 1.01 (95%CI, 0.98-1.03). Cause-specific admission HRs were 0.89 (95%CI, 0.86-0.93) for cardiovascular disease, 1.18 (95%CI, 1.13-1.23) for infection, 1.01 (95%CI, 0.93-1.09) for vascular access dysfunction, and 1.02 (95%CI, 0.99-1.06) for other morbidity. Regarding cardiovascular disease, first admission and readmission HRs for daily HHD versus in-center hemodialysis were 0.91 and 0.87, respectively. Regarding infection, first admission and readmission HRs were 1.35 and 1.03, respectively. Protective associations of daily HHD with heart failure and hypertensive disease were most pronounced, as were adverse associations of daily HHD with bacteremia/sepsis, cardiac infection, osteomyelitis, and vascular access infection. Results may be confounded by unmeasured factors, including vascular access type; information about dialysis frequency, duration, and dose was lacking; causes of admission may be misclassified; results may not apply to patients without Medicare coverage. All-cause hospitalization risk was similar in daily HHD and thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis patients. However, risk of cardiovascular-related admission was lower with daily HHD, and risk of infection-related admission was higher. More attention should be afforded to infection in HHD patients. Copyright © 2014 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relationship between type D personality and chronic heart failure is not confounded by disease severity as assessed by BNP.

PubMed

Pelle, Aline J; van den Broek, Krista C; Szabó, Balázs; Kupper, Nina

2010-11-05

Psychological factors, like Type D personality (i.e., the tendency to experience negative emotions and to inhibit emotional distress) have been linked to impaired health outcomes. Criticism on the role of psychological factors in cardiac disease has postulated that such constructs may be confounded by disease severity. Hence, we examined whether Type D personality is associated with brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), a sensitive marker of disease severity in chronic heart failure (CHF), in 202 consecutive CHF outpatients. No differences in logBNP levels were found between Type D and non-Type D patients (t(200) = -1.03, p = .30). After adjusting for demographic and clinical confounders, Type D personality remained unassociated with logBNP levels (β=.04, p = .55), whereas older age (β = .27, p<.001), being prescribed beta-blockers (β = .15, p = .02), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (β = -.38, p<.0001), and kidney dysfunction (β = .17, p = .01) were associated with higher logBNP. To conclude, Type D personality was not associated with BNP in CHF outpatients, whereas clinical variables were associated with BNP. These findings oppose the suggestion that Type D personality is confounded by indicators of disease severity. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DISTMIX: direct imputation of summary statistics for unmeasured SNPs from mixed ethnicity cohorts.

PubMed

Lee, Donghyung; Bigdeli, T Bernard; Williamson, Vernell S; Vladimirov, Vladimir I; Riley, Brien P; Fanous, Ayman H; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin

2015-10-01

To increase the signal resolution for large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies, genotypes at unmeasured single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are commonly imputed using large multi-ethnic reference panels. However, the ever increasing size and ethnic diversity of both reference panels and cohorts makes genotype imputation computationally challenging for moderately sized computer clusters. Moreover, genotype imputation requires subject-level genetic data, which unlike summary statistics provided by virtually all studies, is not publicly available. While there are much less demanding methods which avoid the genotype imputation step by directly imputing SNP statistics, e.g. Directly Imputing summary STatistics (DIST) proposed by our group, their implicit assumptions make them applicable only to ethnically homogeneous cohorts. To decrease computational and access requirements for the analysis of cosmopolitan cohorts, we propose DISTMIX, which extends DIST capabilities to the analysis of mixed ethnicity cohorts. The method uses a relevant reference panel to directly impute unmeasured SNP statistics based only on statistics at measured SNPs and estimated/user-specified ethnic proportions. Simulations show that the proposed method adequately controls the Type I error rates. The 1000 Genomes panel imputation of summary statistics from the ethnically diverse Psychiatric Genetic Consortium Schizophrenia Phase 2 suggests that, when compared to genotype imputation methods, DISTMIX offers comparable imputation accuracy for only a fraction of computational resources. DISTMIX software, its reference population data, and usage examples are publicly available at http://code.google.com/p/distmix. dlee4@vcu.edu Supplementary Data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Peer influence as a potential magnifier of ADHD diagnosis.

PubMed

Aronson, Brian

2016-11-01

The prevalence of Attention Deficit and Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is growing in America, but its cause is unclear. Scholars have identified many environmental factors that can cause or confound ADHD diagnosis, but epidemiological studies that try to control for confounding factors still find evidence that rates of ADHD diagnosis are increasing. As a preliminary explanation to ADHD's increasing prevalence, this article examines whether core ADHD diagnostic traits are subject to peer influence. If ADHD diagnosis can be confounded by peer influence, there are several mechanisms that could have caused increased rates of diagnosis. With data drawn from two schools across three waves in the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (n = 2193), the author uses a stochastic actor oriented model to estimate the effect of peer influence on inattention, controlling for alternative network and behavioral causes. Results indicate that respondents have a strong likelihood to modify their self-reports of inattention, a core ADHD trait, to resemble that of their friends. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Desire thinking as a confounder in the relationship between mindfulness and craving: Evidence from a cross-cultural validation of the Desire Thinking Questionnaire.

PubMed

Chakroun-Baggioni, Nadia; Corman, Maya; Spada, Marcantonio M; Caselli, Gabriele; Gierski, Fabien

2017-10-01

Desire thinking and mindfulness have been associated with craving. The aim of the present study was to validate the French version of the Desire Thinking Questionnaire (DTQ) and to investigate the relationship between mindfulness, desire thinking and craving among a sample of university students. Four hundred and ninety six university students completed the DTQ and measures of mindfulness, craving and alcohol use. Results from confirmatory factor analyses showed that the two-factor structure proposed in the original DTQ exhibited suitable goodness-of-fit statistics. The DTQ also demonstrated good internal reliability, temporal stability and predictive validity. A set of linear regressions revealed that desire thinking had a confounding effect in the relationship between mindfulness and craving. The confounding role of desire thinking in the relationship between mindfulness and craving suggests that interrupting desire thinking may be a viable clinical option aimed at reducing craving. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grades as Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Darren

2007-01-01

We determine how much observed student performance in microeconomics principles can be attributed, inferentially, to three kinds of student academic "productivity," the instructor, demographics, and unmeasurables. The empirical approach utilizes an ordered probit model that relates student performance in micro to grades in prior…

Total Wellness and Holistic Health: A Bandwagon We Cannot Afford to Jump Onto

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sechrist, William C.

1979-01-01

The changing public attitude towards "total wellness" creates pressure for health educators to desert the basic problem-oriented research programs in favor of nebulous, unmeasurable, but conspicuous targets such as "holistic health." (LH)

Biomechanical and psychosocial exposures are independent risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome: assessment of confounding using causal diagrams.

PubMed

Harris-Adamson, Carisa; Eisen, Ellen A; Neophytou, Andreas; Kapellusch, Jay; Garg, Arun; Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew S; Dale, Ann Marie; Evanoff, Bradley; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Gerr, Fred; Burt, Susan; Rempel, David

2016-11-01

Between 2001 and 2010, six research groups conducted coordinated prospective studies of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) incidence among US workers from various industries to estimate exposure-response relationships. This analysis examined the presence and magnitude of confounding between biomechanical and workplace psychosocial factors and incidence of dominant-hand CTS. 1605 participants, without CTS at enrolment, were followed for up to 3.5 years (2471 person-years). Demographic information, medical history and workplace psychosocial stress measures were collected at baseline. Individual workplace biomechanical exposures were collected for each task and combined across the workweek using time-weighted averaging (TWA). CTS case criteria were based on symptoms and results of electrophysiological testing. HRs were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. Confounding was assessed using causal diagrams and an empirical criterion of 10% or greater change in effect estimate magnitude. There were 109 incident CTS cases (IR=4.41/100 person-years; 6.7% cumulative incidence). The relationships between CTS and forceful repetition rate, % time forceful hand exertion and the Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level (TLV-HAL) were slightly confounded by decision latitude with effect estimates being attenuated towards the null (10-14% change) after adjustment. The risk of CTS among participants reporting high job strain was attenuated towards the null by 14% after adjusting for the HAL Scale or the % time forceful hand exertions. Although attenuation of the relationships between CTS and some biomechanical and work psychosocial exposures was observed after adjusting for confounding, the magnitudes were small and confirmed biomechanical and work psychosocial exposures as independent risk factors for incident CTS. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality: A sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Keenan, Katherine; Grundy, Emily; Kolk, Martin; Myrskylä, Mikko

2016-04-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Predictive Models for Multiple Mediation Analysis: With an Application to Explore Ethnic Disparities in Anxiety and Depression Among Cancer Survivors.

PubMed

Yu, Qingzhao; Medeiros, Kaelen L; Wu, Xiaocheng; Jensen, Roxanne E

2018-04-02

Mediation analysis allows the examination of effects of a third variable (mediator/confounder) in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The general multiple mediation analysis method (MMA), proposed by Yu et al., improves traditional methods (e.g., estimation of natural and controlled direct effects) to enable consideration of multiple mediators/confounders simultaneously and the use of linear and nonlinear predictive models for estimating mediation/confounding effects. Previous studies find that compared with non-Hispanic cancer survivors, Hispanic survivors are more likely to endure anxiety and depression after cancer diagnoses. In this paper, we applied MMA on MY-Health study to identify mediators/confounders and quantify the indirect effect of each identified mediator/confounder in explaining ethnic disparities in anxiety and depression among cancer survivors who enrolled in the study. We considered a number of socio-demographic variables, tumor characteristics, and treatment factors as potential mediators/confounders and found that most of the ethnic differences in anxiety or depression between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white cancer survivors were explained by younger diagnosis age, lower education level, lower proportions of employment, less likely of being born in the USA, less insurance, and less social support among Hispanic patients.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in health care database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness.

PubMed

Nelson, Jennifer Clark; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B; Jackson, Lisa A; Jackson, Michael L

2013-08-01

Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased owing to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. We applied two such methods, namely imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method's ability to reduce bias using the control time period before influenza circulation. Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not use the validation sample confounders. Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from health care database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which the data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in healthcare database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness

PubMed Central

Nelson, Jennifer C.; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B.; Jackson, Lisa A.; Jackson, Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased due to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. Study Design and Setting We applied two such methods, imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method’s ability to reduce bias using the control time period prior to influenza circulation. Results Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not utilize the validation sample confounders. Conclusion Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from healthcare database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. PMID:23849144

Genotype by Environment Interactions in Cognitive Ability: A Survey of 14 Studies from 4 Countries covering 4 Age Groups

PubMed Central

Molenaar, Dylan; van der Sluis, Sophie; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Haworth, Claire M. A.; Hewitt, John K.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Plomin, Robert; Wright, Margie J.; Dolan, Conor V.

2014-01-01

A large part of the variation in cognitive ability is known to be due to genetic factors. Researchers have tried to identify modifiers that influence the heritability of cognitive ability, indicating a genotype by environment interaction (GxE). To date, such modifiers include measured variables like income and socioeconomic status. The present paper focuses on GxE in cognitive ability where the environmental variable is an unmeasured environmental factor that is uncorrelated in family members. We examined this type of GxE in the GHCA-database (Haworth et al., 2009), which comprises data of 14 different cognition studies from 4 different countries including participants of different ages. Results indicate that for younger participants (4–13 years), the strength of E decreases across the additive genetic factor A, but that this effect reverts for older participants (17–34 years). However, a clear and general conclusion about the presence of a genuine GxE is hampered by differences between the individual studies with respect to environmental and genetic influences on cognitive ability. PMID:23397253

Measuring Integration of Cancer Services to Support Performance Improvement: The CSI Survey

PubMed Central

Dobrow, Mark J.; Paszat, Lawrence; Golden, Brian; Brown, Adalsteinn D.; Holowaty, Eric; Orchard, Margo C.; Monga, Neerav; Sullivan, Terrence

2009-01-01

Objective: To develop a measure of cancer services integration (CSI) that can inform clinical and administrative decision-makers in their efforts to monitor and improve cancer system performance. Methods: We employed a systematic approach to measurement development, including review of existing cancer/health services integration measures, key-informant interviews and focus groups with cancer system leaders. The research team constructed a Web-based survey that was field- and pilot-tested, refined and then formally conducted on a sample of cancer care providers and administrators in Ontario, Canada. We then conducted exploratory factor analysis to identify key dimensions of CSI. Results: A total of 1,769 physicians, other clinicians and administrators participated in the survey, responding to a 67-item questionnaire. The exploratory factor analysis identified 12 factors that were linked to three broader dimensions: clinical, functional and vertical system integration. Conclusions: The CSI Survey provides important insights on a range of typically unmeasured aspects of the coordination and integration of cancer services, representing a new tool to inform performance improvement efforts. PMID:20676250

Associations between workplace factors and carpal tunnel syndrome: A multi-site cross sectional study.

PubMed

Fan, Z Joyce; Harris-Adamson, Carisa; Gerr, Fred; Eisen, Ellen A; Hegmann, Kurt T; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Evanoff, Bradley; Dale, Ann Marie; Thiese, Matthew S; Garg, Arun; Kapellusch, Jay; Burt, Susan; Merlino, Linda; Rempel, David

2015-05-01

Few large epidemiologic studies have used rigorous case criteria, individual-level exposure measurements, and appropriate control for confounders to examine associations between workplace psychosocial and biomechanical factors and carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). Pooling data from five independent research studies, we assessed associations between prevalent CTS and personal, work psychosocial, and biomechanical factors while adjusting for confounders using multivariable logistic regression. Prevalent CTS was associated with personal factors of older age, obesity, female sex, medical conditions, previous distal upper extremity disorders, workplace measures of peak forceful hand activity, a composite measure of force and repetition (ACGIH Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level), and hand vibration. In this cross-sectional analysis of production and service workers, CTS prevalence was associated with workplace and biomechanical factors. The findings were similar to those from a prospective analysis of the same cohort with differences that may be due to recall bias and other factors. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation in medical education: A topical review of target parameters, data collection tools and confounding factors.

PubMed

Schiekirka, Sarah; Feufel, Markus A; Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph; Raupach, Tobias

2015-01-01

Evaluation is an integral part of education in German medical schools. According to the quality standards set by the German Society for Evaluation, evaluation tools must provide an accurate and fair appraisal of teaching quality. Thus, data collection tools must be highly reliable and valid. This review summarises the current literature on evaluation of medical education with regard to the possible dimensions of teaching quality, the psychometric properties of survey instruments and potential confounding factors. We searched Pubmed, PsycINFO and PSYNDEX for literature on evaluation in medical education and included studies published up until June 30, 2011 as well as articles identified in the "grey literature". RESULTS are presented as a narrative review. We identified four dimensions of teaching quality: structure, process, teacher characteristics, and outcome. Student ratings are predominantly used to address the first three dimensions, and a number of reliable tools are available for this purpose. However, potential confounders of student ratings pose a threat to the validity of these instruments. Outcome is usually operationalised in terms of student performance on examinations, but methodological problems may limit the usability of these data for evaluation purposes. In addition, not all examinations at German medical schools meet current quality standards. The choice of tools for evaluating medical education should be guided by the dimension that is targeted by the evaluation. Likewise, evaluation results can only be interpreted within the context of the construct addressed by the data collection tool that was used as well as its specific confounding factors.

CORRELATES OF CORONARY ARTERY CALCIFIED PLAQUE IN BLACKS AND WHITES WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES

PubMed Central

Wagenknecht, Lynne E.; Divers, Jasmin; Bertoni, Alain G.; Langefeld, Carl D.; Carr, J. Jeffrey; Bowden, Donald W.; Elbein, Steven C.; Shea, Steven; Lewis, Cora E.; Freedman, Barry I.

2010-01-01

Purpose To examine whether the relationship between cardiovascular disease risk factors and coronary artery calcification (CAC) is modified by race among those with diabetes. Methods Data were pooled data from three studies (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Family Heart Study, Diabetes Heart Study) for a total of 835 blacks and 1122 whites with diabetes. CAC was quantified by cardiac computed tomography and risk factors were obtained using standard methods. Regression models examined the relationship between risk factors and presence and quantity of CAC. Results The average age of the cohort was 60 years; 57% were women. Presence of CAC was lower in blacks compared to whites (odds ratio = 0.22 for men, 0.57 for women, p<0.01). HbA1c, duration of diabetes, LDL, smoking, and BMI were independently associated with presence of CAC; HDL, triglycerides and CRP were not. Race did not modify these associations. Adjustment for multiple risk factors did not explain the race disparity in CAC. Conclusions CAC was reduced in blacks compared to whites in persons with diabetes. This effect was most pronounced in men. The relationship between risk factors and CAC did not differ between races. Racial differences in CAC are likely due to unmeasured risk factors and/or genetic susceptibility. PMID:21130367

Male fertility: psychiatric considerations.

PubMed

Hall, Elise; Burt, Vivien K

2012-02-01

To examine: 1) current knowledge on normal biologic variation of seminal parameters; 2) how stress and psychological factors affect sperm quality in fertile and infertile males; and 3) how mental illness and psychopharmacologic agents can affect male fertility. English-language Medline, Embase, and Psycinfo were searched for relevant publications (from 1970 to January 2011) for systematic review. None. None. None. Possible effects of stress, mood, and psychotropic medications on male factor fertility. Male-factor infertility is influenced by myriad factors (obesity, tobacco, etc.). Stress alone may reduce testosterone levels and spermatogenesis. Infertility assessment and treatment can lead to distress and negatively affect sperm samples. Available research has failed to control for potentially confounding variables. Although some trends have been identified, larger-scale studies that adequately control all confounding variables are needed before conclusions can be made about the relationship between stress, psychotropic agents, and male infertility. Copyright © 2012 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Small intestinal permeability is increased in diarrhoea predominant IBS, while alterations in gastroduodenal permeability in all IBS subtypes are largely attributable to confounders.

PubMed

Mujagic, Z; Ludidi, S; Keszthelyi, D; Hesselink, M A M; Kruimel, J W; Lenaerts, K; Hanssen, N M J; Conchillo, J M; Jonkers, D M A E; Masclee, A A M

2014-08-01

Intestinal permeability has been studied in small groups of IBS patients with contrasting findings. To assess intestinal permeability at different sites of the GI tract in different subtypes of well-characterised IBS patients and healthy controls (HC), and to assess potential confounding factors. IBS patients and HC underwent a multi-sugar test to assess site-specific intestinal permeability. Sucrose excretion and lactulose/rhamnose ratio in 0-5 h urine indicated gastroduodenal and small intestinal permeability, respectively. Sucralose/erythritol ratio in 0-24 h and 5-24 h urine indicated whole gut and colonic permeability, respectively. Linear regression analysis was used to assess the association between IBS groups and intestinal permeability and to adjust for age, sex, BMI, anxiety or depression, smoking, alcohol intake and use of medication. Ninety-one IBS patients, i.e. 37% IBS-D, 23% IBS-C, 33% IBS-M and 7% IBS-U and 94 HC were enrolled. Urinary sucrose excretion was significantly increased in the total IBS group [μmol, median (Q1;Q3): 5.26 (1.82;11.03) vs. 2.44 (0.91;5.85), P < 0.05], as well as in IBS-C and IBS-D vs. HC. However, differences attenuated when adjusting for confounders. The lactulose/rhamnose ratio was increased in IBS-D vs. HC [0.023 (0.013;0.038) vs. 0.014 (0.008;0.025), P < 0.05], which remained significant after adjustment for confounders. No difference was found in 0-24 and 5-24 h sucralose/erythritol ratio between groups. Small intestinal permeability is increased in patients with IBS-D compared to healthy controls, irrespective of confounding factors. Adjustment for confounders is necessary when studying intestinal permeability, especially in a heterogeneous disorder such as IBS. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optical flashes from internal pairs formed in gamma-ray burst afterglows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Panaitescu, A.

We develop a numerical formalism for calculating the distribution with energy of the (internal) pairs formed in a relativistic source from unscattered MeV–TeV photons. For gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows, this formalism is more suitable if the relativistic reverse shock that energizes the ejecta is the source of the GeV photons. The number of pairs formed is set by the source GeV output (calculated from the Fermi-LAT fluence), the unknown source Lorentz factor, and the unmeasured peak energy of the LAT spectral component. We show synchrotron and inverse-Compton light curves expected from pairs formed in the shocked medium and identify some criteria for testing a pair origin of GRB optical counterparts. Pairs formed in bright LAT afterglows with a Lorentz factor in the few hundreds may produce bright optical counterparts (more » $$R\\lt 10$$) lasting for up to one hundred seconds. As a result, the number of internal pairs formed from unscattered seed photons decreases very strongly with the source Lorentz factor, thus bright GRB optical counterparts cannot arise from internal pairs if the afterglow Lorentz factor is above several hundreds.« less

Understanding Medicare Hospital Readmission Rates And Differing Penalties Between Safety-Net And Other Hospitals.

PubMed

Sheingold, Steven H; Zuckerman, Rachael; Shartzer, Adele

2016-01-01

Since the implementation of Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program in 2012, concerns have been raised about the effect its payment penalties for excess readmissions may have on safety-net hospitals. A number of policy solutions have been proposed to ensure that the program does not unfairly penalize safety-net institutions, which treat a disproportionate number of patients with low socioeconomic status. We examined the extent to which the program's current risk-adjustment factors, measures of patient socioeconomic status, and hospital-level factors explain the observed differences in readmission rates between safety-net and other hospitals. Our analyses suggest that patient socioeconomic status can explain some of the difference in readmission rates but that unmeasured factors such as hospitals' performance may also play a role. We also found that safety-net hospitals have experienced only slightly higher readmission penalties under the program than other hospitals have. Together, these findings suggest the need for a careful evaluation of policy alternatives that factor socioeconomic status into penalty calculations for excess readmissions to determine whether such alternatives could have a significant impact on penalties while remaining consistent with overall objectives for delivery system transformation. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Optical flashes from internal pairs formed in gamma-ray burst afterglows

DOE PAGES

Panaitescu, A.

2015-06-09

We develop a numerical formalism for calculating the distribution with energy of the (internal) pairs formed in a relativistic source from unscattered MeV–TeV photons. For gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows, this formalism is more suitable if the relativistic reverse shock that energizes the ejecta is the source of the GeV photons. The number of pairs formed is set by the source GeV output (calculated from the Fermi-LAT fluence), the unknown source Lorentz factor, and the unmeasured peak energy of the LAT spectral component. We show synchrotron and inverse-Compton light curves expected from pairs formed in the shocked medium and identify some criteria for testing a pair origin of GRB optical counterparts. Pairs formed in bright LAT afterglows with a Lorentz factor in the few hundreds may produce bright optical counterparts (more » $$R\\lt 10$$) lasting for up to one hundred seconds. As a result, the number of internal pairs formed from unscattered seed photons decreases very strongly with the source Lorentz factor, thus bright GRB optical counterparts cannot arise from internal pairs if the afterglow Lorentz factor is above several hundreds.« less

Prevalence of cholera risk factors between migrant Haitians and Dominicans in the Dominican Republic.

PubMed

Lund, Andrea J; Keys, Hunter M; Leventhal, Stephanie; Foster, Jennifer W; Freeman, Matthew C

2015-03-01

To determine whether cholera risk factor prevalence in the Dominican Republic can be explained by nationality, independent of other factors, given the vulnerability of many Haitians in the country and the need for targeted prevention. A cross-sectional, observational household survey (103 Haitian and 260 Dominican) was completed in 18 communities in July 2012. The survey included modules for demographics, knowledge, socioeconomic status, and access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure. Logistic regression assessed differential access to WASH infrastructure and Poisson regression assessed differences in cholera knowledge, controlling for potential confounders. Dominican and Haitian households differed on demographic characteristics. Haitians had lower educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and less knowledge of cholera than Dominicans (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.55-0.81). Access to improved drinking water was low for both groups, but particularly low among rural Haitians (aOR = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.04-1.01). No differences were found in access to sanitation after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders (aOR = 1.00; 95%CI: 0.57-1.76). Urban/rural geography and socioeconomic status play a larger role in cholera risk factor prevalence than nationality, indicating that Haitians' perceived vulnerability to cholera is confounded by contextual factors. Understanding the social dynamics that lead to cholera risk can inform control strategies, leading to better targeting and the possibility of eliminating cholera from the island.

Disease management programs in type 2 diabetes: quality of care.

PubMed

Berthold, Heiner K; Bestehorn, Kurt P; Jannowitz, Christina; Krone, Wilhelm; Gouni-Berthold, Ioanna

2011-06-01

To determine whether disease management programs (DMPs) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can improve some processes of care and intermediate outcomes. Two cross-sectional registries of patients with T2DM were used for data extraction before (previous cohort) and after (recent cohort) introduction of DMPs in Germany (N = 78,110). In the recent cohort, 15,293 patients were treated within the DMPs and 9791 were not. Processes of care, medications, and intermediate outcomes (achievement of treatment targets for low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol, blood pressure, and glycosylated hemoglobin [A1C]) were analyzed using multi- variable, multilevel logistic regression, adjusting for patient case-mix and physician-level clustering to derive odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Availability of structured diabetes education and of lipid, blood pressure, and A1C measurements increased over time. In DMP patients, availability was significantly higher for blood pressure and A1C but not for lipid measurements. Prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, oral antidiabetic drugs, and insulin increased over time and was more common in DMP patients. Statin prescription increased over time but was not influenced by DMP status. Intermediate outcomes improved over time, but DMPs had no influence on intermediate outcomes except for reaching LDL cholesterol targets (odds ratio 1.12 [95% CI 1.06, 1.19] in favor of DMPs). While there may be some unmeasured confounding, our data suggest that improvement in processes of care by DMPs, as implemented in Germany, only partially translates into improvement of intermediate outcomes.

Reproductive and developmental effects of disinfection by-products in drinking water.

PubMed Central

Reif, J S; Hatch, M C; Bracken, M; Holmes, L B; Schwetz, B A; Singer, P C

1996-01-01

Recent epidemiologic studies have reported associations between the consumption of chlorinated drinking water and reproductive and developmental effects. Here we review the available epidemiologic data, assess the hazard potential posed by exposure to disinfection by-products, identify critical data gaps, and offer recommendations for further research. The epidemiologic evidence supporting associations between exposure to water disinfection by-products (DBPs) and adverse pregnancy outcomes is sparse, and positive findings should be interpreted cautiously. The methods used during the early stages of research in this area have been diverse. Variability in exposure assessment and endpoints makes it difficult to synthesize or combine the available data. Exposure misclassification and unmeasured confounding may have lead to bias in risk estimation. Future studies of reproductive outcome and exposure to chlorinated water should use improved methods for exposure assessment to 1) assure selection of appropriate exposure markers, 2) assess seasonal and annual fluctuations in DBPs, 3) assess variability within the distribution system, and 4) assess exposure through multiple routes such as bathing and showering, as well as consumption. Population-based studies should be conducted to evaluate male and female fertility, conception delay, growth retardation, and specific birth defects. The reproductive and developmental effects of exposure to DBPs could be efficiently explored in ongoing investigations by incorporating valid exposure markers and relevant questionnaire information. Future studies should make use of naturally occurring variability in the concentrations of DBPs and may incorporate biomarkers of exposure and effect in their design. Epidemiologic investigations should be conducted in parallel with laboratory-based and animal studies in a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach. PMID:8930546

Serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease--Causal association or epiphenomenon?

PubMed

Kunutsor, Setor K

2015-12-01

Observational epidemiological evidence supports a linear inverse and independent association between serum total bilirubin levels and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but whether this association is causal remains to be ascertained. A Mendelian randomization approach was employed to test whether serum total bilirubin is causally linked to CHD. The genetic variant rs6742078--well known to specifically modify levels of serum total bilirubin and accounting for up to 20% of the variance in circulating serum total bilirubin levels--was used as an instrumental variable. In pooled analysis of estimates reported from published genome-wide association studies, every copy of the T allele of rs6742078 was associated with 0.42 standard deviation (SD) higher levels of serum total bilirubin (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.43). Based on combined data from the Coronary Artery Disease Genome wide Replication and Meta-analyses and the Coronary Artery Disease (C4D) Genetics Consortium involving a total of 36,763 CHD cases and 76,997 controls, the odds ratio for CHD per copy of the T allele was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.04). The odds ratio of CHD for a 1 SD genetically elevated serum total bilirubin level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.09). The current findings casts doubt on a strong causal association of serum total bilirubin levels with CHD. The inverse associations demonstrated in observational studies may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, further research in large-scale consortia is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dealing with dietary measurement error in nutritional cohort studies.

PubMed

Freedman, Laurence S; Schatzkin, Arthur; Midthune, Douglas; Kipnis, Victor

2011-07-20

Dietary measurement error creates serious challenges to reliably discovering new diet-disease associations in nutritional cohort studies. Such error causes substantial underestimation of relative risks and reduction of statistical power for detecting associations. On the basis of data from the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition Study, we recommend the following approaches to deal with these problems. Regarding data analysis of cohort studies using food-frequency questionnaires, we recommend 1) using energy adjustment for relative risk estimation; 2) reporting estimates adjusted for measurement error along with the usual relative risk estimates, whenever possible (this requires data from a relevant, preferably internal, validation study in which participants report intakes using both the main instrument and a more detailed reference instrument such as a 24-hour recall or multiple-day food record); 3) performing statistical adjustment of relative risks, based on such validation data, if they exist, using univariate (only for energy-adjusted intakes such as densities or residuals) or multivariate regression calibration. We note that whereas unadjusted relative risk estimates are biased toward the null value, statistical significance tests of unadjusted relative risk estimates are approximately valid. Regarding study design, we recommend increasing the sample size to remedy loss of power; however, it is important to understand that this will often be an incomplete solution because the attenuated signal may be too small to distinguish from unmeasured confounding in the model relating disease to reported intake. Future work should be devoted to alleviating the problem of signal attenuation, possibly through the use of improved self-report instruments or by combining dietary biomarkers with self-report instruments.

Risk of hematological malignancies associated with magnetic fields exposure from power lines: a case-control study in two municipalities of northern Italy

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Some epidemiologic studies have suggested an association between electromagnetic field exposure induced by high voltage power lines and childhood leukemia, but null results have also been yielded and the possibility of bias due to unmeasured confounders has been suggested. Methods We studied this relation in the Modena and Reggio Emilia municipalities of northern Italy, identifying the corridors along high voltage power lines with calculated magnetic field intensity in the 0.1-<0.2, 0.2-<0.4, and ≥ 0.4 microTesla ranges. We identified 64 cases of newly-diagnosed hematological malignancies in children aged <14 within these municipalities from 1986 to 2007, and we sampled four matched controls for each case, collecting information on historical residence and parental socioeconomic status of these subjects. Results Relative risk of leukemia associated with antecedent residence in the area with exposure ≥ 0.1 microTesla was 3.2 (6.7 adjusting for socioeconomic status), but this estimate was statistically very unstable, its 95% confidence interval being 0.4-23.4, and no indication of a dose-response relation emerged. Relative risk for acute lymphoblastic leukemia was 5.3 (95% confidence interval 0.7-43.5), while there was no increased risk for the other hematological malignancies. Conclusions Though the number of exposed children in this study was too low to allow firm conclusions, results were more suggestive of an excess risk of leukemia among exposed children than of a null relation. PMID:20353586

Effects of school breaks on influenza-like illness incidence in a temperate Chinese region: an ecological study from 2008 to 2015.

PubMed

Chu, Yanhui; Wu, Zhenyu; Ji, Jiayi; Sun, Jingyi; Sun, Xiaoyu; Qin, Guoyou; Qin, Jingning; Xiao, Zheng; Ren, Jian; Qin, Di; Zheng, Xueying; Wang, Xi-Ling

2017-03-06

To assess the effects of winter/summer school breaks on occurrences of influenza-like illness (ILI). We jointly analysed ILI surveillance data with the timing of school breaks in a temperate district in Beijing, China from 2008 to 2015. ILI incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of schoolchildren (5-14 and 15-24 years of age) to adults (25-59 and >60 years of age) were used to measure the age shift of ILI incidence before, during and after the 4-week winter/7-week summer breaks. Serfling-based Poisson regression model with adjustment for unmeasured confounders was built to further assess the effect of winter school breaks. ILI incidences were consistently lower during winter breaks than before winter breaks for all age groups. IRRs of younger schoolchildren aged 5-14 to adults were higher during winter school breaks than before breaks, while the opposite was true for the IRRs of older schoolchildren aged 15-24 to adults. Schoolchildren-to-adults IRRs during summer breaks were significantly lower than before or after school breaks (p<0.001). Both winter and summer breaks were associated with reductions of ILI incidences among schoolchildren and adults. Our study contributes additional evidence on the effects of school breaks on ILI incidence, suggesting school closure could be effective in controlling influenza transmission in developing countries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Life-history tradeoffs and reproductive cycles in Spotted Owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoelting, Ricka E.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Kendall, William L.; Peery, M. Zachariah

2015-01-01

The study of tradeoffs among life-history traits has long been key to understanding the evolution of life-history strategies. However, more recently, evolutionary ecologists have realized that reproductive costs have the potential to influence population dynamics. Here, we tested for costs of reproduction in the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and assessed whether costs of reproduction in year t − 1 on reproduction in year t could be responsible for regionally synchronized biennial cycles in reproductive output. Logistic regression analysis and multistate mark–recapture models with state uncertainty revealed that breeding reduced the likelihood of reproducing in the subsequent year by 16% to 38%, but had no influence on subsequent survival. We also found that costs of reproduction in year t − 1 were correlated with climatic conditions in year t, with evidence of higher costs during the dry phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Using a simulation-based population model, we showed that strong reproductive costs had the potential to create biennial cycles in population-level reproductive output; however, estimated costs of reproduction appeared to be too small to explain patterns observed in Spotted Owls. In the absence of strong reproductive costs, we hypothesize that observed natural cycles in the reproductive output of Spotted Owls are related to as-yet-unmeasured, regionally concordant fluctuations in environmental conditions or prey resources. Despite theoretical evidence for demographic effects, our analyses illustrate that linking tradeoffs to actual changes in population processes will be challenging because of the potential confounding effects of individual and environmental variation.

Effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications on the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Popat, Rita A; Tanner, Caroline M; van den Eeden, Stephen K; Bernstein, Allan L; Bloch, Daniel A; Leimpeter, Amethyst; McGuire, Valerie; Nelson, Lorene M

2007-06-01

Inflammatory processes may be involved in the pathogenesis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We examined the association of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) with the risk of ALS in case-control study of incident cases (n = 111) conducted within the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program of Northern California during the years 1996-2000. Controls (n = 258) randomly selected from the same population were frequency matched by age and gender to the ALS cases. Information regarding use of NSAIDs (non-aspirin and aspirin) and three classes of 'control' medications was collected by in-person structured interview. Subjects who used medication at least twice a week for at least a month were classified as 'ever users'. Multivariable logistic regression models were adjusted for age, gender, history of osteoarthritis/rheumatoid arthritis and pain, and other medication use. Overall, there was no association between NSAID use and ALS; however, some sex differences were noted for non-aspirin NSAID use. Among men, non-aspirin NSAID use was associated with a two-fold increased risk of ALS (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-3.9), whereas among women, non-aspirin NSAID use was not associated with increased ALS risk (adjusted OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-1.2). ALS risk was not associated with aspirin use or with 'control' medications. This study did not find any evidence to suggest that NSAID use reduces the risk of ALS. The observed sex differences with non-aspirin NSAID use could be due to chance or an unmeasured confounder.

Estimation of Causal Mediation Effects for a Dichotomous Outcome in Multiple-Mediator Models using the Mediation Formula

PubMed Central

Nelson, Suchitra; Albert, Jeffrey M.

2013-01-01

Mediators are intermediate variables in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. Mediation analysis investigates the extent to which exposure effects occur through these variables, thus revealing causal mechanisms. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the mediation effect when the outcome is binary and multiple mediators of different types exist. We give a precise definition of the total mediation effect as well as decomposed mediation effects through individual or sets of mediators using the potential outcomes framework. We formulate a model of joint distribution (probit-normal) using continuous latent variables for any binary mediators to account for correlations among multiple mediators. A mediation formula approach is proposed to estimate the total mediation effect and decomposed mediation effects based on this parametric model. Estimation of mediation effects through individual or subsets of mediators requires an assumption involving the joint distribution of multiple counterfactuals. We conduct a simulation study that demonstrates low bias of mediation effect estimators for two-mediator models with various combinations of mediator types. The results also show that the power to detect a non-zero total mediation effect increases as the correlation coefficient between two mediators increases, while power for individual mediation effects reaches a maximum when the mediators are uncorrelated. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a retrospective cohort study of dental caries in adolescents with low and high socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the robustness of conclusions regarding mediation effects when the assumption of no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounders is violated. PMID:23650048

Food Environment and Weight Change: Does Residential Mobility Matter?: The Diabetes Study of Northern California (DISTANCE).

PubMed

Laraia, Barbara A; Downing, Janelle M; Zhang, Y Tara; Dow, William H; Kelly, Maggi; Blanchard, Samuel D; Adler, Nancy; Schillinger, Dean; Moffet, Howard; Warton, E Margaret; Karter, Andrew J

2017-05-01

Associations between neighborhood food environment and adult body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) derived using cross-sectional or longitudinal random-effects models may be biased due to unmeasured confounding and measurement and methodological limitations. In this study, we assessed the within-individual association between change in food environment from 2006 to 2011 and change in BMI among adults with type 2 diabetes using clinical data from the Kaiser Permanente Diabetes Registry collected from 2007 to 2011. Healthy food environment was measured using the kernel density of healthful food venues. Fixed-effects models with a 1-year-lagged BMI were estimated. Separate models were fitted for persons who moved and those who did not. Sensitivity analysis using different lag times and kernel density bandwidths were tested to establish the consistency of findings. On average, patients lost 1 pound (0.45 kg) for each standard-deviation improvement in their food environment. This relationship held for persons who remained in the same location throughout the 5-year study period but not among persons who moved. Proximity to food venues that promote nutritious foods alone may not translate into clinically meaningful diet-related health changes. Community-level policies for improving the food environment need multifaceted strategies to invoke clinically meaningful change in BMI among adult patients with diabetes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The design of an environmentally relevant mixture of persistent organic pollutants for use in in vivo and in vitro studies.

PubMed

Berntsen, Hanne Friis; Berg, Vidar; Thomsen, Cathrine; Ropstad, Erik; Zimmer, Karin Elisabeth

2017-01-01

Amongst the substances listed as persistent organic pollutants (POP) under the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (SCPOP) are chlorinated, brominated, and fluorinated compounds. Most experimental studies investigating effects of POP employ single compounds. Studies focusing on effects of POP mixtures are limited, and often conducted using extracts from collected specimens. Confounding effects of unmeasured substances in such extracts may bias the estimates of presumed causal relationships being examined. The aim of this investigation was to design a model of an environmentally relevant mixture of POP for use in experimental studies, containing 29 different chlorinated, brominated, and perfluorinated compounds. POP listed under the SCPOP and reported to occur at the highest levels in Scandinavian food, blood, or breast milk prior to 2012 were selected, and two different mixtures representing varying exposure scenarios constructed. The in vivo mixture contained POP concentrations based upon human estimated daily intakes (EDIs), whereas the in vitro mixture was based upon levels in human blood. In addition to total in vitro mixture, 6 submixtures containing the same concentration of chlorinated + brominated, chlorinated + perfluorinated, brominated + perfluorinated, or chlorinated, brominated or perfluorinated compounds only were constructed. Using submixtures enables investigating the effect of adding or removing one or more chemical groups. Concentrations of compounds included in feed and in vitro mixtures were verified by chemical analysis. It is suggested that this method may be utilized to construct realistic mixtures of environmental contaminants for toxicity studies based upon the relative levels of POP to which individuals are exposed.

Exploring association between statin use and breast cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

PubMed

Islam, Md Mohaimenul; Yang, Hsuan-Chia; Nguyen, Phung-Anh; Poly, Tahmina Nasrin; Huang, Chih-Wei; Kekade, Shwetambara; Khalfan, Abdulwahed Mohammed; Debnath, Tonmoy; Li, Yu-Chuan Jack; Abdul, Shabbir Syed

2017-12-01

The benefits of statin treatment for preventing cardiac disease are well established. However, preclinical studies suggested that statins may influence mammary cancer growth, but the clinical evidence is still inconsistent. We, therefore, performed an updated meta-analysis to provide a precise estimate of the risk of breast cancer in individuals undergoing statin therapy. For this meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, and CINAHL for published studies up to January 31, 2017. Articles were included if they (1) were published in English; (2) had an observational study design with individual-level exposure and outcome data, examined the effect of statin therapy, and reported the incidence of breast cancer; and (3) reported estimates of either the relative risk, odds ratios, or hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used random-effect models to pool the estimates. Of 2754 unique abstracts, 39 were selected for full-text review, and 36 studies reporting on 121,399 patients met all inclusion criteria. The overall pooled risks of breast cancer in patients using statins were 0.94 (95% CI 0.86-1.03) in random-effect models with significant heterogeneity between estimates (I 2  = 83.79%, p = 0.0001). However, we also stratified by region, the duration of statin therapy, methodological design, statin properties, and individual stain use. Our results suggest that there is no association between statin use and breast cancer risk. However, observational studies cannot clarify whether the observed epidemiologic association is a causal effect or the result of some unmeasured confounding variable. Therefore, more research is needed.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Estimation of causal mediation effects for a dichotomous outcome in multiple-mediator models using the mediation formula.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Nelson, Suchitra; Albert, Jeffrey M

2013-10-30

Mediators are intermediate variables in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. Mediation analysis investigates the extent to which exposure effects occur through these variables, thus revealing causal mechanisms. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the mediation effect when the outcome is binary and multiple mediators of different types exist. We give a precise definition of the total mediation effect as well as decomposed mediation effects through individual or sets of mediators using the potential outcomes framework. We formulate a model of joint distribution (probit-normal) using continuous latent variables for any binary mediators to account for correlations among multiple mediators. A mediation formula approach is proposed to estimate the total mediation effect and decomposed mediation effects based on this parametric model. Estimation of mediation effects through individual or subsets of mediators requires an assumption involving the joint distribution of multiple counterfactuals. We conduct a simulation study that demonstrates low bias of mediation effect estimators for two-mediator models with various combinations of mediator types. The results also show that the power to detect a nonzero total mediation effect increases as the correlation coefficient between two mediators increases, whereas power for individual mediation effects reaches a maximum when the mediators are uncorrelated. We illustrate our approach by applying it to a retrospective cohort study of dental caries in adolescents with low and high socioeconomic status. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the robustness of conclusions regarding mediation effects when the assumption of no unmeasured mediator-outcome confounders is violated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Dynamic Panel Model of the Associations of Sweetened Beverage Purchases With Dietary Quality and Food-Purchasing Patterns

PubMed Central

Piernas, Carmen; Ng, Shu Wen; Mendez, Michelle A.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Popkin, Barry M.

2015-01-01

Investigating the association between consumption of sweetened beverages and dietary quality is challenging because issues such as reverse causality and unmeasured confounding might result in biased and inconsistent estimates. Using a dynamic panel model with instrumental variables to address those issues, we examined the independent associations of beverages sweetened with caloric and low-calorie sweeteners with dietary quality and food-purchasing patterns. We analyzed purchase data from the Homescan survey, an ongoing, longitudinal, nationally representative US survey, from 2000 to 2010 (n = 34,294). Our model included lagged measures of dietary quality and beverage purchases (servings/day in the previous year) as exposures to predict the outcomes (macronutrient (kilocalories per capita per day; %), total energy, and food purchases) in the next year after adjustment for other sociodemographic covariates. Despite secular declines in purchases (kilocalories per capita per day) from all sources, each 1-serving/day increase in consumption of either beverage type resulted in higher purchases of total daily kilocalories and kilocalories from food, carbohydrates, total sugar, and total fat. Each 1-serving/day increase in consumption of either beverage was associated with more purchases of caloric-sweetened desserts or sweeteners, which accounted for a substantial proportion of the increase in total kilocalories. We concluded that consumers of both beverages sweetened with low-calorie sweeteners and beverages sweetened with caloric sweeteners had poorer dietary quality, exhibited higher energy from all purchases, sugar, and fat, and purchased more caloric-sweetened desserts/caloric sweeteners compared with nonconsumers. PMID:25834139

Maternal childhood trauma, postpartum depression, and infant outcomes: Avoidant affective processing as a potential mechanism.

PubMed

Choi, Karmel W; Sikkema, Kathleen J; Vythilingum, Bavi; Geerts, Lut; Faure, Sheila C; Watt, Melissa H; Roos, Annerine; Stein, Dan J

2017-03-15

Women who have experienced childhood trauma may be at risk for postpartum depression, increasing the likelihood of negative outcomes among their children. Predictive pathways from maternal childhood trauma to child outcomes, as mediated by postpartum depression, require investigation. A longitudinal sample of South African women (N=150) was followed through pregnancy and postpartum. Measures included maternal trauma history reported during pregnancy; postpartum depression through six months; and maternal-infant bonding, infant development, and infant physical growth at one year. Structural equation models tested postpartum depression as a mediator between maternal experiences of childhood trauma and children's outcomes. A subset of women (N=33) also participated in a lab-based emotional Stroop paradigm, and their responses to fearful stimuli at six weeks were explored as a potential mechanism linking maternal childhood trauma, postpartum depression, and child outcomes. Women with childhood trauma experienced greater depressive symptoms through six months postpartum, which then predicted negative child outcomes at one year. Mediating effects of postpartum depression were significant, and persisted for maternal-infant bonding and infant growth after controlling for covariates and antenatal distress. Maternal avoidance of fearful stimuli emerged as a potential affective mechanism. Limitations included modest sample size, self-report measures, and unmeasured potential confounders. Findings suggest a mediating role of postpartum depression in the intergenerational transmission of negative outcomes. Perinatal interventions that address maternal trauma histories and depression, as well as underlying affective mechanisms, may help interrupt cycles of disadvantage, particularly in high-trauma settings such as South Africa. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk profiles for weight gain among postmenopausal women: A classification and regression tree analysis approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Risk factors for obesity and weight gain are typically evaluated individually while "adjusting for" the influence of other confounding factors, and few studies, if any, have created risk profiles by clustering risk factors. We identified subgroups of postmenopausal women homogeneous in their cluster...

N-acetyltransferase single nucleotide polymorphisms: Emerging concepts serve as a paradigm for understanding complexities of personalized medicine

PubMed Central

Hein, David W.

2009-01-01

Arylamine N-acetyltransferase 1 (NAT1) and 2 (NAT2) exhibit single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in human populations that modify drug and carcinogen metabolism. This paper updates the identity, location, and functional effects of these SNPs and then follows with emerging concepts for understanding why pharmacogenetic findings may not be replicated consistently. Using this paradigm as an example, laboratory-based mechanistic analyses can reveal complexities such that genetic polymorphisms become biologically and medically relevant when confounding factors are more fully understood and considered. As medical care moves to a more personalized approach, the implications of these confounding factors will be important in understanding the complexities of personalized medicine. PMID:19379125

Associations between Stroke Mortality and Weekend Working by Stroke Specialist Physicians and Registered Nurses: Prospective Multicentre Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Bray, Benjamin D.; Ayis, Salma; Campbell, James; Cloud, Geoffrey C.; James, Martin; Hoffman, Alex; Tyrrell, Pippa J.; Wolfe, Charles D. A.; Rudd, Anthony G.

2014-01-01

Background Observational studies have reported higher mortality for patients admitted on weekends. It is not known whether this “weekend effect” is modified by clinical staffing levels on weekends. We aimed to test the hypotheses that rounds by stroke specialist physicians 7 d per week and the ratio of registered nurses to beds on weekends are associated with mortality after stroke. Methods and Findings We conducted a prospective cohort study of 103 stroke units (SUs) in England. Data of 56,666 patients with stroke admitted between 1 June 2011 and 1 December 2012 were extracted from a national register of stroke care in England. SU characteristics and staffing levels were derived from cross-sectional survey. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of 30-d post-admission mortality, adjusting for case mix, organisational, staffing, and care quality variables. After adjusting for confounders, there was no significant difference in mortality risk for patients admitted to a stroke service with stroke specialist physician rounds fewer than 7 d per week (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.04, 95% CI 0.91–1.18) compared to patients admitted to a service with rounds 7 d per week. There was a dose–response relationship between weekend nurse/bed ratios and mortality risk, with the highest risk of death observed in stroke services with the lowest nurse/bed ratios. In multivariable analysis, patients admitted on a weekend to a SU with 1.5 nurses/ten beds had an estimated adjusted 30-d mortality risk of 15.2% (aHR 1.18, 95% CI 1.07–1.29) compared to 11.2% for patients admitted to a unit with 3.0 nurses/ten beds (aHR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.93), equivalent to one excess death per 25 admissions. The main limitation is the risk of confounding from unmeasured characteristics of stroke services. Conclusions Mortality outcomes after stroke are associated with the intensity of weekend staffing by registered nurses but not 7-d/wk ward rounds by stroke specialist physicians. The findings have implications for quality improvement and resource allocation in stroke care. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:25137386

Breast milk and cognitive development—the role of confounders: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Walfisch, Asnat; Sermer, Corey; Cressman, Alex; Koren, Gideon

2013-01-01

Objectives The association between breastfeeding and child cognitive development is conflicted by studies reporting positive and null effects. This relationship may be confounded by factors associated with breastfeeding, specifically maternal socioeconomic class and IQ. Design Systematic review of the literature. Setting and participants Any prospective or retrospective study, in any language, evaluating the association between breastfeeding and cognitive development using a validated method in healthy term infants, children or adults, was included. Primary and secondary outcome measures Extracted data included the study design, target population and sample size, breastfeeding exposure, cognitive development assessment tool used and participants’ age, summary of the results prior to, and following, adjustment for confounders, and all confounders adjusted for. Study quality was assessed as well. Results 84 studies met our inclusion criteria (34 rated as high quality, 26 moderate and 24 low quality). Critical assessment of accepted studies revealed the following associations: 21 null, 28 positive, 18 null after adjusting for confounders and 17 positive—diminished after adjusting for confounders. Directionality of effect did not correlate with study quality; however, studies showing a decreased effect after multivariate analysis were of superior quality compared with other study groupings (14/17 high quality, 82%). Further, studies that showed null or diminished effect after multivariate analysis corrected for significantly more confounders (7.7±3.4) as compared with those that found no change following adjustment (5.6±4.5, p=0.04). The majority of included studies were carried out during childhood (75%) and set in high-income countries (85.5%). Conclusions Much of the reported effect of breastfeeding on child neurodevelopment is due to confounding. It is unlikely that additional work will change the current synthesis. Future studies should attempt to rigorously control for all important confounders. Alternatively, study designs using sibling cohorts discordant for breastfeeding may yield more robust conclusions. PMID:23975102

Drivers of community assembly in tropical forest restoration sites: role of local environment, landscape, and space.

PubMed

Audino, Lívia D; Murphy, Stephen J; Zambaldi, Ludimila; Louzada, Julio; Comita, Liza S

2017-09-01

There is increasing recognition that community assembly theory can offer valuable insights for ecological restoration. We studied community assembly processes following tropical forest restoration efforts, using dung beetles (Scarabaeinae) as a focal taxon to investigate taxonomic and functional patterns of biodiversity recovery. We evaluated the relative importance of the local environment (i.e., canopy cover, understory cover, tree basal area, and soil texture), landscape context (i.e., habitat patch proximity and availability and percentage of surrounding area classified as natural forest or Eucalyptus spp. plantation), and space (i.e., spatial proximity of the study areas to estimate dispersal limitation or unmeasured spatially structured processes) on dung beetle species and functional trait composition across a gradient of 15 restoration sites in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We also assessed which factors were the primary determinants in the establishment of individual dung beetle functional groups, classified according to size, food relocation habit, diet, and period of flight activity. Both species and functional trait composition were most strongly influenced by the local environment, indicating that assembly was predominantly driven by niche-based processes. Most of the variation explained by space was co-explained by local environment and landscape context, ruling out a strong influence of dispersal limitation and random colonization on assembly following restoration. In addition, nearly all of the variance explained by landscape context was co-explained by local environment, suggesting that arrival and establishment at a site depends on both local and landscape-scale environmental factors. Despite strong evidence for niche-based assembly, a large amount of variation remained unexplained in all models, suggesting that stochastic processes and/or unmeasured environmental variables also play an important role. The relative importance of local environment, landscape context, and space changed considerably when analyzing the assembly mechanisms of each functional group separately. Therefore, to recover distinct functional traits in restoration sites, it may be necessary to manipulate different components of the local environment and surrounding landscape. Overall, this study shows that assembly rules can help to better understand recovery processes, enabling improvement of future restoration efforts. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Self-efficacy difference among patients with cancer with different socioeconomic status: application of latent class analysis and standardization and decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Yuan, Changrong; Wei, Chunlan; Wang, Jichuan; Qian, Huijuan; Ye, Xianghong; Liu, Yingyan; Hinds, Pamela S

2014-06-01

Although the relationship between partial socioeconomic status (SES) and self-efficacy has been studied in previous studies, few research have examined self-efficacy difference among patients with cancer with different SES. A cross-sectional survey involving 764 patients with cancer was completed. Latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to identify distinct groups of patients with cancer using four SES indicators (education, income, employment status and health insurance status). Standardization and decomposition analysis (SDA) was then used to examine differences in patients' self-efficacy among SES groups and the components of the differences attributed to confounding factors, such as gender, age, anxiety, depression and social support. Participants were classified into four distinctive SES groups via using LCA method, and the observed self-efficacy level significantly varied by SES groups; as theorized, higher self-efficacy was associated with higher SES. The self-efficacy differences by SES groups were decomposed into "real" group differences and factor component effects that are attributed to group differences in confounding factor compositions. Self-efficacy significantly varies by SES. Social support significantly confounded the observed differences in self-efficacy between different SES groups among Chinese patients with cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistent smoking as a predictor of disability pension due to musculoskeletal diagnoses: a 23 year prospective study of Finnish twins.

PubMed

Ropponen, Annina; Korhonen, Tellervo; Svedberg, Pia; Koskenvuo, Markku; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko

2013-12-01

To investigate whether stability or changes in smoking predict disability pension (DP) due to low back diagnoses (LBD) and musculoskeletal diagnoses (MSD) after taking familial confounding into account using a co-twin design. Longitudinal smoking patterns and multiple covariates in a population-based cohort of 17,451 Finnish twins (6959 complete pairs) born before 1958 were surveyed through questionnaires in 1975 and 1981. The outcome data were collected from the national pension registers until the end of 2004. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for statistical analyses. Disability pension due to low back diagnoses was granted to 408 individuals and disability pension due to musculoskeletal diagnoses to 1177 individuals during the follow-up of 23 years. Being a persistent smoker (current smoker both 1975 and 1981) predicted a significantly increased risk for disability pension (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.46, 1.97) compared to those individuals who had never smoked. The association remained when several confounding factors, including familial factors, were taken into account. Persistent smoking predicts early disability pension due to musculoskeletal diagnoses and low back diagnoses independently from numerous confounding factors, including familial effects shared by the co-twins. © 2013.

Temporal Patterns of Airborne Pesticides in Alpine Lakes of the Sierra Nevada, California

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne agricultural pesticides are being transported many tens of kilometers to remote mountain areas, and have been implicated as a causal agent for recent, dramatic population declines of several amphibian species in such locations. Largely unmeasured, however, are the magnit...

Maternal and Paternal Height and the Risk of Preeclampsia.

PubMed

Lee, Yunsung; Magnus, Per

2018-04-01

The etiology of preeclampsia is unknown. Tall women have been found to have lower incidence of preeclampsia. This points to a possible biological causal effect but may be because of socioeconomic confounding. We used paternal height as an unexposed control to examine confounding. The MoBa (Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study) was used to extract data on parental heights, maternal prepregnancy weight, other background factors, and pregnancy outcomes for 99 968 singleton births. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for preeclampsia according to parental height. The adjusted odds ratio for preeclampsia was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.66-0.82) for women >172 cm as compared with women <164 cm. The adjusted odds ratio for preeclampsia for men >186 cm was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.93-1.15) compared with men <178 cm. The association between maternal height and preeclampsia is unlikely to be because of confounding by familial, socioeconomic factors or by fetal genes related to height. The observed association between maternal height and preeclampsia merits further investigation. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Does the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders differ between diagnostic subtypes of anorexia nervosa and bulimia?

PubMed

Godart, Nathalie; Berthoz, Sylvie; Rein, Zoé; Perdereau, Fabienne; Lang, François; Venisse, Jean-Luc; Halfon, Olivier; Bizouard, Pierre; Loas, Gwénolé; Corcos, Maurice; Jeammet, Philippe; Flament, Martine; Curt, Florence

2006-12-01

The objective of the present work is to determine whether the prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders varies in subgroups of eating disorders (ED) according to age, ED duration, mode of care provision, and body mass index (BMI). Using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders was evaluated in 271 ED participants. Their prevalence was compared in subgroups of anorexics (AN-R and AN-BN) and bulimics (BN), both before and after controlling for potential confounding variables. Current or lifetime comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders did not differ between AN-R and AN-BN groups. Social phobia, panic disorders, and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) were significantly more frequent in AN-BN and AN-R groups. Panic disorder was more frequent in the BN group. Several confounding factors, in particular those identified in the present study, may explain previous conflicting results on the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders in ED. Nevertheless, the study confirmed that OCD is more frequent in AN, even after controlling for confounding factors. Copyright 2006 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic regulation of metabolic flux in engineered bacteria using a pathway-independent quorum-sensing circuit

PubMed Central

Gupta, Apoorv; Brockman Reizman, Irene M.; Reisch, Christopher R.; Prather, Kristala L. J.

2017-01-01

Metabolic engineering of microorganisms to produce desirable products on an industrial scale can result in unbalanced cellular metabolic networks that reduce productivity and yield. Metabolic fluxes can be rebalanced using dynamic pathway regulation, but few broadly applicable tools are available to achieve this. We present a pathway-independent genetic control module that can be used to dynamically regulate the expression of target genes. We applied our module to identify the optimal point to redirect glycolytic flux into heterologous engineered pathways in Escherichia coli, resulting in 5.5-fold increased titres of myo-inositol and titers of glucaric acid that improved from unmeasurable quantities to >0.8 g/L. Scaled-up production in benchtop bioreactors resulted in almost 10-fold and 5-fold increases in titers of myo-inositol and glucaric acid. We also used our module to control flux into aromatic amino acid biosynthesis to increase titers of shikimate in E. coli from unmeasurable quantities to >100 mg/L. PMID:28191902

Association of unmeasured strong ions with outcome of hospitalized beef and dairy diarrheic calves

PubMed Central

Gomez, Diego E.; Lofstedt, Jeanne; Arroyo, Luis G.; Wichtel, Maureen; Muirhead, Tammy; Stämpfli, Henri; McClure, J. Trenton

2017-01-01

Increased systemic concentrations of L-lactate and unmeasured strong ions (USI) are associated with an increased risk of mortality in human neonates and adults suffering from various diseases. This exploratory study aimed to investigate if values of certain acid-base parameters, especially L-lactate and USI, on admission to hospital are associated with mortality in diarrheic calves. Fifty-five calves < 28 days old admitted to 2 teaching hospitals for diagnosis and treatment of diarrhea were included. Admission demographic, physical examination, blood gas and biochemistry analysis, and outcome data were recorded. Admission acid-base values associated with outcome were assessed using multivariable regression modeling. Calves with elevated plasma L-lactate (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.55; P = 0.005) and USI (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.74; P = 0.003) at admission were more likely to die or to be euthanized. This study revealed that elevated concentrations of L-lactate and USI at admission were positively associated with mortality. PMID:28966359

Non-parametric causality detection: An application to social media and financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsapeli, Fani; Musolesi, Mirco; Tino, Peter

2017-10-01

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about a particular parametric form of the model expressing statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of observed factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.

Factors influencing tests of auditory processing: a perspective on current issues and relevant concerns.

PubMed

Cacace, Anthony T; McFarland, Dennis J

2013-01-01

Tests of auditory perception, such as those used in the assessment of central auditory processing disorders ([C]APDs), represent a domain in audiological assessment where measurement of this theoretical construct is often confounded by nonauditory abilities due to methodological shortcomings. These confounds include the effects of cognitive variables such as memory and attention and suboptimal testing paradigms, including the use of verbal reproduction as a form of response selection. We argue that these factors need to be controlled more carefully and/or modified so that their impact on tests of auditory and visual perception is only minimal. To advocate for a stronger theoretical framework than currently exists and to suggest better methodological strategies to improve assessment of auditory processing disorders (APDs). Emphasis is placed on adaptive forced-choice psychophysical methods and the use of matched tasks in multiple sensory modalities to achieve these goals. Together, this approach has potential to improve the construct validity of the diagnosis, enhance and develop theory, and evolve into a preferred method of testing. Examination of methods commonly used in studies of APDs. Where possible, currently used methodology is compared to contemporary psychophysical methods that emphasize computer-controlled forced-choice paradigms. In many cases, the procedures used in studies of APD introduce confounding factors that could be minimized if computer-controlled forced-choice psychophysical methods were utilized. Ambiguities of interpretation, indeterminate diagnoses, and unwanted confounds can be avoided by minimizing memory and attentional demands on the input end and precluding the use of response-selection strategies that use complex motor processes on the output end. Advocated are the use of computer-controlled forced-choice psychophysical paradigms in combination with matched tasks in multiple sensory modalities to enhance the prospect of obtaining a valid diagnosis. American Academy of Audiology.

Oxidative stress in drug-naïve first episode patients with schizophrenia and major depression: effects of disease acuity and potential confounders.

PubMed

Jordan, Wolfgang; Dobrowolny, Henrik; Bahn, Sabine; Bernstein, Hans-Gert; Brigadski, Tanja; Frodl, Thomas; Isermann, Berend; Lessmann, Volkmar; Pilz, Jürgen; Rodenbeck, Andrea; Schiltz, Kolja; Schwedhelm, Edzard; Tumani, Hayrettin; Wiltfang, Jens; Guest, Paul C; Steiner, Johann

2018-03-01

Oxidative stress and immune dysregulation have been linked to schizophrenia and depression. However, it is unknown whether these factors are related to the pathophysiology or whether they are an epiphenomenon. Inconsistent oxidative stress-related findings in previous studies may have resulted from the use of different biomarkers which show disparate aspects of oxidative stress. Additionally, disease severity, medication, smoking, endocrine stress axis activation and obesity are potential confounders. In order to address some of these shortcomings, we have analyzed a broader set of oxidative stress biomarkers in our exploratory study, including urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (8-iso-PGF2α), 8-OH-2-deoyxguanosine (8-OH-2-dG), and blood levels of malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) in acutely ill drug-naïve first episode patients with schizophrenia (n = 22), major depression (n = 18), and controls (n = 43). Possible confounding factors were considered, and patients were followed-up after 6 weeks of treatment. No differences were observed regarding 8-OH-2-dG, MDA and GST. At baseline, 8-iso-PGF2α levels were higher in patients with schizophrenia (p = 0.004) and major depression (p = 0.037), with a trend toward higher SOD concentrations in schizophrenia (p = 0.053). After treatment, schizophrenia patients showed a further increase in 8-iso-PGF2α (p = 0.016). These results were not related to age, sex, disease severity, medication or adipose tissue mass. However, 8-iso-PGF2α was associated with smoking, endocrine stress axis activation, C-reactive protein levels and low plasma concentrations of brain-derived neurotrophic factor. This study suggests a role of lipid peroxidation particularly in drug-naïve acutely ill schizophrenia patients and highlights the importance of taking into account other confounding factors in biomarker studies.

Risk of Breast Cancer Associated with Reproductive and Fertility Factors According to a Family History of Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

also ruled out as confounders. Polycystic ovaries and endometriosis, possible indications for using OCs, were evaluated as potential confounders, but...Cn polymorphism In the MTHFR gone with breast and/or A irne genomic deletion of hMLHI in a family with Muir-Torre syndrome . J.J.P.canoer risk In...reduion I te,1Teth-A Muir-Torre syndrome (MTS) is an autosomal dominant condition characterized by se- Miylonetetrathydrofoiate reductase (MTHFR

Water fluoridation and ethnic inequities in dental caries profiles of New Zealand children aged 5 and 12-13 years: analysis of national cross-sectional registry databases for the decade 2004-2013.

PubMed

Schluter, Philip J; Lee, Martin

2016-02-18

Gross and important inequities have historically existed in the oral health profiles of New Zealand children. Following the New Zealand Government's strategic oral health vision, launched in 2006, nationally collected information from 2004 to 2013 was used to analyze patterns in the prevalence of no obvious decay experience (caries-free) and mean decayed-missing-filled teeth indices over time and by community water fluoridation (CWF) and ethnic classifications in New Zealand children aged 5 years and in school year 8 (generally aged 12-13 years). National aggregated data collected from children's routine child oral health service dental examinations were retrieved, and combined with demographic information from Statistics New Zealand. Children's CWF status was defined by the public water supply status of their school. Crude and standardized population estimates of caries-free prevalence and mean decayed-missing-filled teeth indices over time were derived. Unweighted linear regression models of main effects and two-factor interactions were investigated by age group. Dental examination data were available from 417,318 children aged 5 years and 471,333 year 8 children; of whom 93,715 (22.5 %) and 94,001 (19.9 %), respectively, were Māori. Dental examination coverage of Māori children was significantly less than their non-Māori counterparts (approximately 11 % and 14 % for aged 5 and year 8 children, respectively). Regression analysis revealed that caries-free prevalence and mean decayed-missing-filled teeth indices significantly improved over the study period for both age groups. Significant and sustained differences were observed between Māori and non-Māori children, and between CWF and non-CWF exposed groups. However, a convergence of dental profiles between non-Māori children in CWF and non-CWF regions was observed. Significant and important gains in New Zealand children's oral health profiles appear to have been made over the last decade. Māori children continued to carry a disproportionate oral health burden, even for those in CWF regions. The apparent profile convergence between non-Māori children in CWF and non-CWF regions is noteworthy; although a likely consequence of demographic shifts and unmeasured confounders. CWF itself did not remove disparities in caries levels between Māori and non-Māori children. Multiple, multi-pronged strategies are needed that overcome the array of factors which disadvantage Māori.

Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to make spatio-temporal probabilistic predictions of dengue. In order to quantify unknown or unmeasured dengue risk factors, we use spatio-temporal random effects in the model framework. This helps identify those available indicators which could significantly contribute to a dengue early warning system and allows us to quantify the extent to which climate indicators can explain variations in dengue risk. Once accounting for spatial-temporal confounding factors, lagged variables of temperature and precipitation were found to have a statistically significant positive contribution to the relative risk of dengue. Therefore, forecast climate information has potential utility in a dengue decision support system for Thailand. Taking advantage of lead times of several months provided by climate forecasts, public health officials may be able to more efficiently allocate intervention measures, such as targeted vector control activities and provision of medication to deal with more deadly forms of the disease, well ahead of an imminent dengue epidemic.

Concepts and considerations of tooth wear: Part II--The mechanical component.

PubMed

Raigrodski, Ariel J; Dogan, Sami

2008-05-01

Identification of etiological factors is essential for successful management of tooth wear. In many cases, the diagnosis may be complicated because of the multiple etiologic factors which may confound the clinical appearance of tooth wear. Comprehensively addressing all of these factors is paramount to the long-term success of patient management.

Systematic review of the quality of prognosis studies in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Lim, Lily S H; Lee, Senq J; Feldman, Brian M; Gladman, Dafna D; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; Uleryk, Elizabeth; Silverman, Earl D

2014-10-01

Prognosis studies examine outcomes and/or seek to identify predictors or factors associated with outcomes. Many prognostic factors have been identified in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but few have been consistently found across studies. We hypothesized that this is due to a lack of rigor of study designs. This study aimed to systematically assess the methodologic quality of prognosis studies in SLE. A search of prognosis studies in SLE was performed using MEDLINE and Embase, from January 1990 to June 2011. A representative sample of 150 articles was selected using a random number generator and assessed by 2 reviewers. Each study was assessed by a risk of bias tool according to 6 domains: study participation, study attrition, measurement of prognostic factors, measurement of outcomes, measurement/adjustment for confounders, and appropriateness of statistical analysis. Information about missing data was also collected. A cohort design was used in 71% of studies. High risk of bias was found in 65% of studies for confounders, 57% for study participation, 56% for attrition, 36% for statistical analyses, 20% for prognostic factors, and 18% for outcome. Missing covariate or outcome information was present in half of the studies. Only 6 studies discussed reasons for missing data and 2 imputed missing data. Lack of rigorous study design, especially in addressing confounding, study participation and attrition, and inadequately handled missing data, has limited the quality of prognosis studies in SLE. Future prognosis studies should be designed with consideration of these factors to improve methodologic rigor. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.

ANALYTICAL METHODS NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT RISK-BASED CRITERIA FOR CHEMICALS IN MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

The Ambient Water Quality Criteria that were promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1980 included water concentration levels which, for many pollutants, were so low as to be unmeasurable by standard analytical methods. Criteria for controlling toxics in munici...

Identity Affirmed, Agency Engaged: Culturally Responsive Performance-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosa, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Performance-based assessment is unquestionably superior to the instrumental rationality of high-stakes standardized testing and the audit culture that testing regimes inspire. It is more likely to engender opportunities to witness the un-measureable: vision, imagination, and compassion. Performance assessments must be culturally responsive in…

Variations in Obesity Rates between US Counties: Impacts of Activity Access, Food Environments, and Settlement Patterns.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2017-09-07

There is much ongoing research about the effect of the urban environment as compared with individual behaviour on growing obesity levels, including food environment, settlement patterns (e.g., sprawl, walkability, commuting patterns), and activity access. This paper considers obesity variations between US counties, and delineates the main dimensions of geographic variation in obesity between counties: by urban-rural status, by region, by area poverty status, and by majority ethnic group. Available measures of activity access, food environment, and settlement patterns are then assessed in terms of how far they can account for geographic variation. A county level regression analysis uses a Bayesian methodology that controls for spatial correlation in unmeasured area risk factors. It is found that environmental measures do play a significant role in explaining geographic contrasts in obesity.

A calculation model to half-life estimate of two-proton radioactive decay process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares, O. A. P.; Medeiros, E. L.

2018-04-01

Partial half-life of the radioactive decay by the two-proton emission mode has been estimated for proton-rich nuclei of mass number 18 < A < 68 by a model based on the quantum mechanical tunneling mechanism through a potential barrier. The Coulomb, centrifugal and overlapping contributions to the barrier have been considered within the spherical nucleus approximation. The present calculation method has been shown to be adequate in reproducing the existing experimental half-life data for 19Mg, 45Fe, 48Ni, and 54Zn 2p-emitter nuclides within a factor six. For 67Kr parent nucleus the calculated partial 2p-decay half-life has been found to be ten times greater than the recent, unique measured value at RIKEN Nishina Center. Prediction for new, yet unmeasured cases of two-proton radioactivity are also reported.

Behind human milk and breastfeeding: not only food.

PubMed

Pecoraro, Luca; Agostoni, Carlo; Pepaj, Orsiol; Pietrobelli, Angelo

2017-12-26

After birth, breastfeeding should not be considered only a normal and physiological event; in fact, it encloses both physical and the psychological aspects. Human milk cannot be compared to any formula milk. Specifically, human milk has immunological and nutritional properties and it is considered the best available option which guarantees an adequate growth and an optimal development of a child. Differences in term of mediators and hormones have been shown between infants who were breastfed and ones who were not. A key point is represented by unmeasurable environmental and psycho-affective factors. So, it may be simplistic to consider human milk only as a nutrient; since it encompasses much more. The aim of our commentary is to review clinical studies about breastfeeding, analysing its consequences on the neuro-developmental achievement, growth and risk of obesity within a holistic view.

Variations in Obesity Rates between US Counties: Impacts of Activity Access, Food Environments, and Settlement Patterns

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

There is much ongoing research about the effect of the urban environment as compared with individual behaviour on growing obesity levels, including food environment, settlement patterns (e.g., sprawl, walkability, commuting patterns), and activity access. This paper considers obesity variations between US counties, and delineates the main dimensions of geographic variation in obesity between counties: by urban-rural status, by region, by area poverty status, and by majority ethnic group. Available measures of activity access, food environment, and settlement patterns are then assessed in terms of how far they can account for geographic variation. A county level regression analysis uses a Bayesian methodology that controls for spatial correlation in unmeasured area risk factors. It is found that environmental measures do play a significant role in explaining geographic contrasts in obesity. PMID:28880209

A prospective cohort study of disability pension due to mental diagnoses: the importance of health factors and behaviors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Previous studies have found associations between various health factors and behaviors and mental disorders. However, knowledge of such associations with disability pension (DP) due to mental diagnoses is scarce. Moreover, the influence of familial factors (genetics and family background) on the associations are mainly unknown. The aim of the study was to investigate associations between health factors and behaviors and future DP due to mental diagnoses in a twin cohort, accounting for familial confounding. Methods A prospective cohort study of Swedish twins (N=28 613), including survey data and national register data on DP and other background factors was conducted. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the whole twin cohort, and for discordant twin pairs. Results During follow-up 1998–2008 (median 10 years), 2.2% of the cohort was granted a DP with a mental diagnosis. In the fully adjusted analyses of the whole cohort, the associations of poor or moderate self-rated health (SRH), under- or overweight, former or current tobacco use, or being an abstainer from alcohol were significantly associated with risk of DP due to mental diagnoses. Analyses of discordant twin pairs confirmed all these associations, except for current tobacco use, being independent from familial confounding. Exclusion of individuals with current or previous depression or anxiety at baseline did not influence the associations found. Conclusions Poor or moderate SRH, under- or overweight, former tobacco use or being an abstainer from alcohol seem to be strong direct predictors of DP due to mental diagnoses, independently of several confounders of this study, including familial factors. PMID:23816331

Genetic Instrumental Variable Studies of Effects of Prenatal Risk Factors

PubMed Central

von Hinke Kessler Scholder, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Identifying the effects of maternal risk factors during pregnancy on infant and child health is an area of tremendous research interest. However, of interest to policy makers is unraveling the causal effects of prenatal risk factors, not their associations with child health, which may be confounded by several unobserved factors. In this paper, we evaluate the utility of genetic variants in three genes that have unequivocal evidence of being related to three major risk factors – CHRNA3 for smoking, ADH1B for alcohol use, and FTO for obesity – as instrumental variables for identifying the causal effects of such factors during pregnancy. Using two independent datasets, we find that these variants are overall predictive of the risk factors and are not systematically related to observed confounders, suggesting that they may be useful instruments. We also find some suggestive evidence that genetic effects are stronger during than before pregnancy. We provide an empirical example illustrating the use of these genetic variants as instruments to evaluate the effects of risk factors on birth weight. Finally, we offer suggestions for researchers contemplating the use of these variants as instruments. PMID:23701534

Effects of environmental lead pollution on blood lead and sex hormone levels among occupationally exposed group in an E-waste dismantling area.

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Lu, Xiao Song; Li, Ding Long; Yu, Yun Jiang

2013-06-01

To study the effects of environmental multi-media lead pollution on blood lead and sex hormone levels among lead exposed males engaged in E-waste dismantling, and the correlation between confounding factors and sex hormone levels. An E-waste dismantling area in Taizhou of Zhejiang Province was selected as the research site. One hundred and fifty two samples were collected from the groundwater, soil, rice, corn, chicken, and pork in the dismantling area. The effects of the multi-media lead pollution on the male blood lead and sex hormone levels of FSH, LH, and T, as well as the correlation with confounding factors, were studied. The blood lead concentrations in the males aged under 31, from 31 to 45 and from 46 to 60 were 98.55, 100.23, and 101.45 μg/L, respectively. Of all the environmental media lead exposures, the groundwater, rice and soil were main contributing factors to the lead accumulation in humans. FSH and LH levels increased with the age while the T levels decreased with the age instead. There was a significant correlation between the FSH and LH levels and wearing masks. There was correlation between the FSH, LH, and T levels, and the mean values of lead concentrations in environmental media, and the sex hormone levels were correlated with the confounding factor of wearing masks. Copyright © 2013 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for recurrent gastroesophageal reflux disease after fundoplication in pediatric patients: a case-control study.

PubMed

Ngerncham, Monawat; Barnhart, Douglas C; Haricharan, Ramanath N; Roseman, Jeffrey M; Georgeson, Keith E; Harmon, Carroll M

2007-09-01

Recurrent gastroesophageal reflux disease (rGERD) is a common problem after fundoplication. Previous studies attempting to identify risk factors for rGERD have failed to control for confounding variables. The purpose of this study was to identify significant risk factors for rGERD after controlling for potential confounding variables. A retrospective, matched case-control study was conducted at a tertiary children's hospital. Cases (n = 116) met 1 of these criteria: reoperation for rGERD, symptomatic rGERD (confirmed by upper gastrointestinal series, esophagogastroduodenoscopy, or pH monitoring), or postoperative reinstitution of antireflux medication for more than 8 weeks. Controls (n = 209) were matched for surgeon, approach (laparoscopic/open), technique (partial/complete), and approximate operative date. Univariate and multivariable associations were analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Significant risk factors for rGERD were age of less than 6 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-7.5), preoperative hiatal hernia (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4-7.3), postoperative retching (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.6-10.0), and postoperative esophageal dilatation (OR, 10.8; 95% CI, 1.8-65.4). Interestingly, significant association was not found between neurologic impairment and rGERD after controlling for potential confounding variables. Age of less than 6 years, preoperative hiatal hernia, postoperative retching, and postoperative esophageal dilatation are independently associated with increased risk of rGERD. Neurologic impairment alone does not increase the risk of developing rGERD.

Not only body weight perception but also body mass index is relevant to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Kuni; Kinoshita, Yoshihiro; Shimodera, Shinji; Nishida, Atsushi; Inoue, Ken; Watanabe, Norio; Oshima, Norihito; Akechi, Tatsuo; Sasaki, Tsukasa; Inoue, Shimpei; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Okazaki, Yuji

2012-04-01

Whether a low body mass index (BMI) is directly associated with a high risk of suicidal ideation or self-harming behavior in adolescents is still inconclusive. This study has, therefore, evaluated the relevance of BMI to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior after controlling for body weight perception (BWP) and other potential confounding factors. BMI, BWP, suicidal ideation, and self-harming behavior were all assessed using a self-report questionnaire administered to 18,104 Japanese adolescents. Potential confounding factors were also evaluated. The data were then analyzed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Low BMI was associated with suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harm when controlling for sex, age, drug use, emotional distress, and BWP. Low BMI may be an independent risk factor for suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

Maternal obesity and childhood wheezing and asthma.

PubMed

Rusconi, Franca; Popovic, Maja

2017-03-01

Obesity represents one of the major public health problems worldwide, with an increased prevalence also among women of reproductive age. Maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity are important risk factors for a number of maternal and foetal/neonatal complications. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the most recent evidence regarding the associations between pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and wheezing and asthma in childhood. Potential mechanisms, mediators and confounding factors involved in these associations are also discussed. Despite the relatively large body of studies examining these associations and taking into account main confounders and potential mediators, the causal relationship between maternal obesity and wheezing and asthma in childhood is still uncertain. This uncertainty is not trivial, as any prevention strategy aimed at reducing the burden of these conditions would necessarily imply better understanding of the factors that are in the causal chain. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Factors Influencing Observed Tillage Impacts on Herbicide Transport

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The widespread use and potential human health effects of the herbicides atrazine and glyphosate have generated interest in establishing how no-tillage impacts loading of these herbicides to runoff water in comparison to other tillage practices. In this study, potentially confounding factors such as ...

Confounding adjustment in comparative effectiveness research conducted within distributed research networks.

PubMed

Toh, Sengwee; Gagne, Joshua J; Rassen, Jeremy A; Fireman, Bruce H; Kulldorff, Martin; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-08-01

A distributed research network (DRN) of electronic health care databases, in which data reside behind the firewall of each data partner, can support a wide range of comparative effectiveness research (CER) activities. An essential component of a fully functional DRN is the capability to perform robust statistical analyses to produce valid, actionable evidence without compromising patient privacy, data security, or proprietary interests. We describe the strengths and limitations of different confounding adjustment approaches that can be considered in observational CER studies conducted within DRNs, and the theoretical and practical issues to consider when selecting among them in various study settings. Several methods can be used to adjust for multiple confounders simultaneously, either as individual covariates or as confounder summary scores (eg, propensity scores and disease risk scores), including: (1) centralized analysis of patient-level data, (2) case-centered logistic regression of risk set data, (3) stratified or matched analysis of aggregated data, (4) distributed regression analysis, and (5) meta-analysis of site-specific effect estimates. These methods require different granularities of information be shared across sites and afford investigators different levels of analytic flexibility. DRNs are growing in use and sharing of highly detailed patient-level information is not always feasible in DRNs. Methods that incorporate confounder summary scores allow investigators to adjust for a large number of confounding factors without the need to transfer potentially identifiable information in DRNs. They have the potential to let investigators perform many analyses traditionally conducted through a centralized dataset with detailed patient-level information.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effects of insecticides on stream invertebrates from observational data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lester L. Yuan,; Amina I. Pollard,; Carlisle, Daren M.

2009-01-01

Analyses of observational data can provide insights into relationships between environmental conditions and biological responses across a broader range of natural conditions than experimental studies, potentially complementing insights gained from experiments. However, observational data must be analyzed carefully to minimize the likelihood that confounding variables bias observed relationships. Propensity scores provide a robust approach for controlling for the effects of measured confounding variables when analyzing observational data. Here, we use propensity scores to estimate changes in mean invertebrate taxon richness in streams that have experienced insecticide concentrations that exceed aquatic life use benchmark concentrations. A simple comparison of richness in sites exposed to elevated insecticides with those that were not exposed suggests that exposed sites had on average 6.8 fewer taxa compared to unexposed sites. The presence of potential confounding variables makes it difficult to assert a causal relationship from this simple comparison. After controlling for confounding factors using propensity scores, the difference in richness between exposed and unexposed sites was reduced to 4.1 taxa, a difference that was still statistically significant. Because the propensity score analysis controlled for the effects of a wide variety of possible confounding variables, we infer that the change in richness observed in the propensity score analysis was likely caused by insecticide exposure.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effects of insecticides on stream invertebrates from observational data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, L.L.; Pollard, A.I.; Carlisle, D.M.

2009-01-01

Analyses of observational data can provide insights into relationships between environmental conditions and biological responses across a broader range of natural conditions than experimental studies, potentially complementing insights gained from experiments. However, observational data must be analyzed carefully to minimize the likelihood that confounding variables bias observed relationships. Propensity scores provide a robust approach for controlling for the effects of measured confounding variables when analyzing observational data. Here, we use propensity scores to estimate changes in mean invertebrate taxon richness in streams that have experienced insecticide concentrations that exceed aquatic life use benchmark concentrations. A simple comparison of richness in sites exposed to elevated insecticides with those that were not exposed suggests that exposed sites had on average 6.8 fewer taxa compared to unexposed sites. The presence of potential confounding variables makes it difficult to assert a causal relationship from this simple comparison. After controlling for confounding factors using propensity scores, the difference in richness between exposed and unexposed sites was reduced to 4.1 taxa, a difference that was still statistically significant. Because the propensity score analysis controlled for the effects of a wide variety of possible confounding variables, we infer that the change in richness observed in the propensity score analysis was likely caused by insecticide exposure. ?? 2009 SETAC.

On Estimation of the Survivor Average Causal Effect in Observational Studies when Important Confounders are Missing Due to Death

PubMed Central

Egleston, Brian L.; Scharfstein, Daniel O.; MacKenzie, Ellen

2008-01-01

We focus on estimation of the causal effect of treatment on the functional status of individuals at a fixed point in time t* after they have experienced a catastrophic event, from observational data with the following features: (1) treatment is imposed shortly after the event and is non-randomized, (2) individuals who survive to t* are scheduled to be interviewed, (3) there is interview non-response, (4) individuals who die prior to t* are missing information on pre-event confounders, (5) medical records are abstracted on all individuals to obtain information on post-event, pre-treatment confounding factors. To address the issue of survivor bias, we seek to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), the effect of treatment on functional status among the cohort of individuals who would survive to t* regardless of whether or not assigned to treatment. To estimate this effect from observational data, we need to impose untestable assumptions, which depend on the collection of all confounding factors. Since pre-event information is missing on those who die prior to t*, it is unlikely that these data are missing at random (MAR). We introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology to evaluate the robustness of SACE inferences to deviations from the MAR assumption. We apply our methodology to the evaluation of the effect of trauma center care on vitality outcomes using data from the National Study on Costs and Outcomes of Trauma Care. PMID:18759833

Genetic Interactions with Prenatal Social Environment: Effects on Academic and Behavioral Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conley, Dalton; Rauscher, Emily

2013-01-01

Numerous studies report gene-environment interactions, suggesting that specific alleles have different effects on social outcomes depending on environment. In all these studies, however, environmental conditions are potentially endogenous to unmeasured genetic characteristics. That is, it could be that the observed interaction effects actually…

A novel approach to estimating nitrous oxide emissions during wetting events from single-timepoint flux measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation and irrigation induce pulses of N2O emissions in agricultural soils, but the magnitude, duration, and timing of these pulses remain uncertain. This uncertainty makes it difficult to accurately extrapolate emissions from unmeasured time periods using static chambers sampled manually. Fu...

The Effectiveness of Follow Through: Evidence from the National Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Richard B.

1977-01-01

Abt Associates, the firm responsible for the primary analysis of the Follow Through experiment, summarize the findings. Their clearest finding indicates that local circumstances, attitudes, and activities unmeasured by evaluation have much more to do with the effectiveness of Follow Through models, without exception, than do their theoretical…

Is familial risk for depression confounded by individual and familial socioeconomic factors and neighborhood environmental factors? A 7-year follow-up study in Sweden.

PubMed

Hamano, Tsuyoshi; Li, Xinjun; Lönn, Sara Larsson; Nabika, Toru; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

2018-05-16

Family history of depression is an important risk factor for depression. The aim of this study was to examine whether the effect of family history of depression is confounded by individual and familial socioeconomic factors (i.e., country of origin, educational attainment, family income and mobility) and neighborhood environmental factors (i.e., neighborhood deprivation and neighborhood social capital). The study population comprised 188,907 individuals aged 20-44 years from a nationwide sample of primary care centers in Sweden. Among these individuals, 22,014 with a first event of depression (6,486 men and 15,528 women) were identified during the 7-year follow-up period. Family history of depression was defined as depression in at least one parent. Cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios with 95% credible intervals. Increased familial odds were observed after adjustment for individual and familial socioeconomic factors and neighborhood environmental factors for both men and women. Our results suggest that family history of depression is an independent risk factor for depression. Offspring of parents with depression are important targets for disease prevention, regardless of individual and familial socioeconomic factors and neighborhood environmental factors. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The role of prenatal care and social risk factors in the relationship between immigrant status and neonatal morbidity: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Paz-Zulueta, María; Llorca, Javier; Sarabia-Lavín, Raquel; Bolumar, Francisco; Rioja, Luis; Delgado, Abraham; Santibáñez, Miguel

2015-01-01

Literature evaluating association between neonatal morbidity and immigrant status presents contradictory results. Poorer compliance with prenatal care and greater social risk factors among immigrants could play roles as major confounding variables, thus explaining contradictions. We examined whether prenatal care and social risk factors are confounding variables in the relationship between immigrant status and neonatal morbidity. Retrospective cohort study: 231 pregnant African immigrant women were recruited from 2007-2010 in northern Spain. A Spanish population sample was obtained by simple random sampling at 1:3 ratio. Immigrant status (Spanish, Sub-Saharan and Northern African), prenatal care (Kessner Index adequate, intermediate or inadequate), and social risk factors were treated as independent variables. Low birth weight (LBW < 2500 grams) and preterm birth (< 37 weeks) were collected as neonatal morbidity variables. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) were estimated by unconditional logistic regression with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Positive associations between immigrant women and higher risk of neonatal morbidity were obtained. Crude OR for preterm births in Northern Africans with respect to nonimmigrants was 2.28 (95% CI: 1.04-5.00), and crude OR for LBW was 1.77 (95% CI: 0.74-4.22). However, after adjusting for prenatal care and social risk factors, associations became protective: adjusted OR for preterm birth = 0.42 (95% CI: 0.14-1.32); LBW = 0.48 (95% CI: 0.15-1.52). Poor compliance with prenatal care was the main independent risk factor associated with both preterm birth (adjusted OR inadequate care = 17.05; 95% CI: 3.92-74.24) and LBW (adjusted OR inadequate care = 6.25; 95% CI: 1.28-30.46). Social risk was an important independent risk factor associated with LBW (adjusted OR = 5.42; 95% CI: 1.58-18.62). Prenatal care and social risk factors were major confounding variables in the relationship between immigrant status and neonatal morbidity.

Sick-building symptoms in office workers in northeastern France: a pilot study.

PubMed

Teculescu, D B; Sauleau, E A; Massin, N; Bohadana, A B; Buhler, O; Benamghar, L; Mur, J M

1998-07-01

To verify that sick building symptoms are present in north-eastern France office workers; to try to identify new confounding factors. The design was that of a cross-sectional study with control group. We studied with the same methods the personnel of an air-conditioned building (n=425), and of a naturally ventilated building (n=351). Air temperature and humidity, bacterial and fungal densities were measured by the same technical staff in the two buildings. A standard questionnaire on irritative and respiratory symptoms, personal and family history, and lifestyle was completed by the participants. In univariate analysis, exposure to air-conditioning was associated with an increased prevalence of symptoms (odds ratios-OR-between 1.54 and 2.84). A significant increase in sickness absence was also found among subjects working in air-conditioned offices. As a series of factors were suspected to interfere with these associations, logistic regression was applied. This method confirmed exposure to be an independent determinant of 7 symptoms, and also identified two determinants not previously described: a family history of respiratory diseases and "do-it-yourself' activities. we found the sick building symptoms to be present in a group of French office workers exposed to air-conditioning. We confirmed the influence of a number of confounding factors and described two further confounders - do-it-yourself activities at home and a history of familial respiratory disease.

Testing for gene-environment interaction under exposure misspecification.

PubMed

Sun, Ryan; Carroll, Raymond J; Christiani, David C; Lin, Xihong

2017-11-09

Complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors characterizes the etiology of many diseases. Modeling gene-environment (GxE) interactions is often challenged by the unknown functional form of the environment term in the true data-generating mechanism. We study the impact of misspecification of the environmental exposure effect on inference for the GxE interaction term in linear and logistic regression models. We first examine the asymptotic bias of the GxE interaction regression coefficient, allowing for confounders as well as arbitrary misspecification of the exposure and confounder effects. For linear regression, we show that under gene-environment independence and some confounder-dependent conditions, when the environment effect is misspecified, the regression coefficient of the GxE interaction can be unbiased. However, inference on the GxE interaction is still often incorrect. In logistic regression, we show that the regression coefficient is generally biased if the genetic factor is associated with the outcome directly or indirectly. Further, we show that the standard robust sandwich variance estimator for the GxE interaction does not perform well in practical GxE studies, and we provide an alternative testing procedure that has better finite sample properties. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Beyond greening and browning: the need for an integrated understanding of Arctic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamon, J. A.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Hmimina, G.; Yu, R.

2017-12-01

Satellite records and field observations povide contradictory evidence for "greening" or "browning" of Arctic tundra. Large-scale observations of apparent greening have been based on satellite vegetation indices (e.g NDVI). However, a clear interpretation of these trends are confounded by changing snow cover and surface hydrology, both of which influence NDVI and are known to be changing independently of any direct vegetation response. Field studies have demonstrated greening in some areas, but not others, and have also documented changing permafrost depth, surface hydrology and snow cover. Together, these confounding factors can explain some of the contradictory evidence based regarding greening and browning. Given the multiple influences on Arctic NDVI, simple conclusions regarding greening and browning from satellite data alone can be incorrect; when these confounding factors are taken into account, some areas that show apparent greening in the satellite record appear to be undergoing productivity declines due to surface drying. These contradictory interpretations have profound implications for our understanding of changing surface energy balance, biogeochemistry, and surface-atmosphere feedbacks. To better address Arctic ecosystem responses to a changing climate, an integrated, multi-scale, multivariate approach that considers hydrology, permafrost, snow cover and vegetation is needed.

Birth weight and mortality: causality or confounding?

PubMed

Basso, Olga; Wilcox, Allen J; Weinberg, Clarice R

2006-08-15

The association between birth weight and mortality is among the strongest seen in epidemiology. While preterm delivery causes both small babies and high mortality, it does not explain this association. Fetal growth restriction has also been proposed, although its features are unclear because it lacks a definition independent of weight. If, as some postulate, birth weight is not itself on the causal path to mortality, its relation with mortality would have to be explained by confounding factors that decrease birth weight and increase mortality. In this paper, the authors explore the characteristics such confounders would require in order to achieve the observed association between birth weight and mortality. Through a simple simulation, they found that the observed steep gradient of risk for small babies at term can be produced by a rare condition or conditions (with a total prevalence of 0.5%) having profound effects on both fetal growth (-1.7 standard deviations) and mortality (relative risk = 160). Candidate conditions might include malformations, fetal or placental aneuploidy, infections, or imprinting disorders. If such rare factors underlie the association of birth weight with mortality, it would have broad implications for the study of fetal growth restriction and birth weight, and for the prevention of infant mortality.

ESTIMATING TREATMENT EFFECTS ON HEALTHCARE COSTS UNDER EXOGENEITY: IS THERE A ‘MAGIC BULLET’?

PubMed Central

Polsky, Daniel; Manning, Willard G.

2011-01-01

Methods for estimating average treatment effects, under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, include regression models; propensity score adjustments using stratification, weighting, or matching; and doubly robust estimators (a combination of both). Researchers continue to debate about the best estimator for outcomes such as health care cost data, as they are usually characterized by an asymmetric distribution and heterogeneous treatment effects,. Challenges in finding the right specifications for regression models are well documented in the literature. Propensity score estimators are proposed as alternatives to overcoming these challenges. Using simulations, we find that in moderate size samples (n= 5000), balancing on propensity scores that are estimated from saturated specifications can balance the covariate means across treatment arms but fails to balance higher-order moments and covariances amongst covariates. Therefore, unlike regression model, even if a formal model for outcomes is not required, propensity score estimators can be inefficient at best and biased at worst for health care cost data. Our simulation study, designed to take a ‘proof by contradiction’ approach, proves that no one estimator can be considered the best under all data generating processes for outcomes such as costs. The inverse-propensity weighted estimator is most likely to be unbiased under alternate data generating processes but is prone to bias under misspecification of the propensity score model and is inefficient compared to an unbiased regression estimator. Our results show that there are no ‘magic bullets’ when it comes to estimating treatment effects in health care costs. Care should be taken before naively applying any one estimator to estimate average treatment effects in these data. We illustrate the performance of alternative methods in a cost dataset on breast cancer treatment. PMID:22199462

Does progestin-only contraceptive use after pregnancy affect recovery from pelvic girdle pain? A prospective population study

PubMed Central

Owe, Katrine Mari; Nordeng, Hedvig Marie Egeland; Engdahl, Bo Lars; Kristiansson, Per; Vangen, Siri; Eberhard-Gran, Malin

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate associations of progestin-only contraceptives with persistent pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery. Methods Prospective population based cohort study during the years 2003–2011. We included 20,493 women enrolled in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study who reported pelvic girdle pain in pregnancy week 30. Data were obtained by 3 self-administered questionnaires and the exposure was obtained by linkage to the Prescription Database of Norway. The outcome was pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery. Results Pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery was reported by 9.7% (957/9830) of women with dispense of a progestin-only contraceptive and by 10.5% (1114/10,663) of women without dispense (adjusted odds ratio 0.93; 95% CI 0.84–1.02). In sub-analyses, long duration of exposure to a progestin intrauterine device or progestin-only oral contraceptives was associated with reduced odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain (Ptrend = 0.021 and Ptrend = 0.005). Conversely, long duration of exposure to progestin injections and/or a progestin implant was associated with modest increased odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain (Ptrend = 0.046). Early timing of progestin-only contraceptive dispense following delivery (≤3 months) was not significantly associated with persistent pelvic girdle pain. Conclusions Our findings suggest a small beneficial effect of progestin intrauterine devices and progestin-only oral contraceptives on recovery from pelvic girdle pain. We cannot completely rule out an opposing adverse effect of exposure to progestin injections and/or progestin implants. However, the modest increased odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain among these users could be a result of unmeasured confounding. PMID:28892506

Does progestin-only contraceptive use after pregnancy affect recovery from pelvic girdle pain? A prospective population study.

PubMed

Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting; Owe, Katrine Mari; Nordeng, Hedvig Marie Egeland; Engdahl, Bo Lars; Kristiansson, Per; Vangen, Siri; Eberhard-Gran, Malin

2017-01-01

To estimate associations of progestin-only contraceptives with persistent pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery. Prospective population based cohort study during the years 2003-2011. We included 20,493 women enrolled in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study who reported pelvic girdle pain in pregnancy week 30. Data were obtained by 3 self-administered questionnaires and the exposure was obtained by linkage to the Prescription Database of Norway. The outcome was pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery. Pelvic girdle pain 18 months after delivery was reported by 9.7% (957/9830) of women with dispense of a progestin-only contraceptive and by 10.5% (1114/10,663) of women without dispense (adjusted odds ratio 0.93; 95% CI 0.84-1.02). In sub-analyses, long duration of exposure to a progestin intrauterine device or progestin-only oral contraceptives was associated with reduced odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain (Ptrend = 0.021 and Ptrend = 0.005). Conversely, long duration of exposure to progestin injections and/or a progestin implant was associated with modest increased odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain (Ptrend = 0.046). Early timing of progestin-only contraceptive dispense following delivery (≤3 months) was not significantly associated with persistent pelvic girdle pain. Our findings suggest a small beneficial effect of progestin intrauterine devices and progestin-only oral contraceptives on recovery from pelvic girdle pain. We cannot completely rule out an opposing adverse effect of exposure to progestin injections and/or progestin implants. However, the modest increased odds of persistent pelvic girdle pain among these users could be a result of unmeasured confounding.

The Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Austrians Disease Management Program in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus - A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Riedl, Regina; Robausch, Martin; Berghold, Andrea

2016-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of the Austrian Disease Management Program (DMP) 'Therapie aktiv-Diabetes im Griff' for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus concerning patient-relevant outcomes (mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke) and costs. Based on routine health insurance data, we conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using a propensity score (PS) matched control group design. The DMP-group consists of participants enrolled in the program during 2008 and 2009 (n = 7181). Out of 208.532 patients with no participation in the DMP up to 2013, PS-matched controls were selected with a matching ratio 1:3. In the PS-model, patient's characteristics, form of antidiabetic drug therapy, several prescriptions, the number of hospital admissions and days, main discharge diagnoses and costs at baseline were included. Over a follow-up period of four years, we observed a significantly lower mortality rate in the DMP-group (9.4%) in comparison with the control group (15.9%, p<0.001). The cumulative number of hospital days and mean annual hospital costs were lower for DMP-participants resulting in significantly lower mean annual total costs, amounting to € 8226.80 per patient in the DMP-group and € 9231.10 in the control group respectively (p<0.001). The evaluation shows a survival benefit and an average reduction of costs for participants in the DMP compared with the control-group. Despite we took great effort to ensure comparable groups, we cannot entirely rule out an influence by residual and unmeasured confounding due to the observational study design and the use of routine data. However, the results indicate that the disease management program implemented in Austria improves quality of care for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

A dynamic panel model of the associations of sweetened beverage purchases with dietary quality and food-purchasing patterns.

PubMed

Piernas, Carmen; Ng, Shu Wen; Mendez, Michelle A; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Popkin, Barry M

2015-05-01

Investigating the association between consumption of sweetened beverages and dietary quality is challenging because issues such as reverse causality and unmeasured confounding might result in biased and inconsistent estimates. Using a dynamic panel model with instrumental variables to address those issues, we examined the independent associations of beverages sweetened with caloric and low-calorie sweeteners with dietary quality and food-purchasing patterns. We analyzed purchase data from the Homescan survey, an ongoing, longitudinal, nationally representative US survey, from 2000 to 2010 (n = 34,294). Our model included lagged measures of dietary quality and beverage purchases (servings/day in the previous year) as exposures to predict the outcomes (macronutrient (kilocalories per capita per day; %), total energy, and food purchases) in the next year after adjustment for other sociodemographic covariates. Despite secular declines in purchases (kilocalories per capita per day) from all sources, each 1-serving/day increase in consumption of either beverage type resulted in higher purchases of total daily kilocalories and kilocalories from food, carbohydrates, total sugar, and total fat. Each 1-serving/day increase in consumption of either beverage was associated with more purchases of caloric-sweetened desserts or sweeteners, which accounted for a substantial proportion of the increase in total kilocalories. We concluded that consumers of both beverages sweetened with low-calorie sweeteners and beverages sweetened with caloric sweeteners had poorer dietary quality, exhibited higher energy from all purchases, sugar, and fat, and purchased more caloric-sweetened desserts/caloric sweeteners compared with nonconsumers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

PubMed

Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

2014-09-01

To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Too much ado about instrumental variable approach: is the cure worse than the disease?

PubMed

Baser, Onur

2009-01-01

To review the efficacy of instrumental variable (IV) models in addressing a variety of assumption violations to ensure standard ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are consistent. IV models gained popularity in outcomes research because of their ability to consistently estimate the average causal effects even in the presence of unmeasured confounding. However, in order for this consistent estimation to be achieved, several conditions must hold. In this article, we provide an overview of the IV approach, examine possible tests to check the prerequisite conditions, and illustrate how weak instruments may produce inconsistent and inefficient results. We use two IVs and apply Shea's partial R-square method, the Anderson canonical correlation, and Cragg-Donald tests to check for weak instruments. Hall-Peixe tests are applied to see if any of these instruments are redundant in the analysis. A total of 14,952 asthma patients from the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database were examined in this study. Patient health care was provided under a variety of fee-for-service, fully capitated, and partially capitated health plans, including preferred provider organizations, point of service plans, indemnity plans, and health maintenance organizations. We used controller-reliever copay ratio and physician practice/prescribing patterns as an instrument. We demonstrated that the former was a weak and redundant instrument producing inconsistent and inefficient estimates of the effect of treatment. The results were worse than the results from standard regression analysis. Despite the obvious benefit of IV models, the method should not be used blindly. Several strong conditions are required for these models to work, and each of them should be tested. Otherwise, bias and precision of the results will be statistically worse than the results achieved by simply using standard OLS.

Comparing the risks of hospitalized heart failure associated with glinide, sulfonylurea, and acarbose use in type 2 diabetes: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Lee, Yen-Chieh; Chang, Chia-Hsuin; Dong, Yaa-Hui; Lin, Jou-Wei; Wu, Li-Chiu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang; Chuang, Lee-Ming

2017-02-01

Increasing evidence suggests that certain newer anti-diabetic drugs are associated with an increased risk of hospitalized heart failure (HHF). However, the potential risks associated with the use of sulfonylurea and glinide have not been carefully evaluated. A retrospective cohort study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance claims database was conducted to examine the risks of HHF among newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients who initiated glinide, sulfonylurea, or acarbose therapy during 2006-2012. The outcome of interest was hospitalization due to heart failure after treatment initiation, defined by ICD-9-CM code. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using acarbose as the reference group. A total of 25,638 glinide, 272,140 sulfonylurea, and 29,376 acarbose initiators were included in the analysis. Patients who initiated glinide had the highest crude HHF incidence. In the analysis adjusted for baseline differences, a significantly higher risk of HHF was found for glinide (adjusted HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.24-1.88), but not for sulfonylurea (adjusted HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.80-1.11), as compared with acarbose. The elevated risk remained consistent across different subgroups of patients as well as several sensitivity analyses including exploring the impact of potential unmeasured confounding. These findings indicated that, as compared with acarbose, glinide may be associated with a higher risk of HHF for type 2 diabetic patients. Further researchis needed to fully evaluate the risks and benefits of glinide therapy relative to other oral anti-diabetic agents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is gestational hypertension protective against perinatal mortality in twin pregnancies?

PubMed

Luo, Qi-Guang; Zhang, Ji-Yan; Cheng, Wei-Wei; Audibert, Francois; Luo, Zhong-Cheng

2014-01-01

Pregnancy-induced or gestational hypertension is a common pregnancy complication. Paradoxically, gestational hypertension has been associated with a protective effect against perinatal mortality in twin pregnancies in analytic models (logistic regression) without accounting for survival time. Whether this effect is real remains uncertain. This study aimed to validate the impact of gestational hypertension on perinatal mortality in twin pregnancies using a survival analysis approach. This was a retrospective cohort study of 278,821 twin pregnancies, using the U.S. 1995-2000 matched multiple birth dataset (the largest dataset available for multiple births). Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of perinatal death (stillbirth and neonatal death) comparing gestational hypertensive vs. non-hypertensive pregnancies controlling for maternal characteristics and twin cluster-level dependence. Comparing births in gestational hypertensive vs. non-hypertensive twin pregnancies, perinatal mortality rates were significantly lower (1.20% vs. 3.38%), so were neonatal mortality (0.72% vs. 2.30%) and stillbirth (0.48% vs. 1.10%) rates. The aHRs (95% confidence intervals) were 0.34 (0.31-0.38) for perinatal death, 0.31 (0.27-0.34) for neonatal death, and 0.45 (0.38-0.53) for stillbirth, respectively. The protective effect of gestational hypertension against perinatal death became weaker over advancing gestational age; the aHRs in very preterm (<32 weeks), mild preterm (32-36 weeks) and term (37+ weeks) births were 0.29, 0.48 and 0.76, respectively. The largest risk reductions in neonatal mortality were observed for infections and immaturity-related conditions. Gestational hypertension appears to be beneficial for fetal survival in twin pregnancies, especially in those ending more prematurely or for deaths due to infections and immaturity-related conditions. Prospective studies are required to rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders.

Adjusting survival time estimates to account for treatment switching in randomized controlled trials--an economic evaluation context: methods, limitations, and recommendations.

PubMed

Latimer, Nicholas R; Abrams, Keith R; Lambert, Paul C; Crowther, Michael J; Wailoo, Allan J; Morden, James P; Akehurst, Ron L; Campbell, Michael J

2014-04-01

Treatment switching commonly occurs in clinical trials of novel interventions in the advanced or metastatic cancer setting. However, methods to adjust for switching have been used inconsistently and potentially inappropriately in health technology assessments (HTAs). We present recommendations on the use of methods to adjust survival estimates in the presence of treatment switching in the context of economic evaluations. We provide background on the treatment switching issue and summarize methods used to adjust for it in HTAs. We discuss the assumptions and limitations associated with adjustment methods and draw on results of a simulation study to make recommendations on their use. We demonstrate that methods used to adjust for treatment switching have important limitations and often produce bias in realistic scenarios. We present an analysis framework that aims to increase the probability that suitable adjustment methods can be identified on a case-by-case basis. We recommend that the characteristics of clinical trials, and the treatment switching mechanism observed within them, should be considered alongside the key assumptions of the adjustment methods. Key assumptions include the "no unmeasured confounders" assumption associated with the inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) method and the "common treatment effect" assumption associated with the rank preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM). The limitations associated with switching adjustment methods such as the RPSFTM and IPCW mean that they are appropriate in different scenarios. In some scenarios, both methods may be prone to bias; "2-stage" methods should be considered, and intention-to-treat analyses may sometimes produce the least bias. The data requirements of adjustment methods also have important implications for clinical trialists.

Instrumental variables analysis using multiple databases: an example of antidepressant use and risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Uddin, Md Jamal; Groenwold, Rolf H H; de Boer, Anthonius; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Martin, Elisa; Candore, Gianmario; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; Roes, Kit C B; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis can control for unmeasured confounding, yet it has not been widely used in pharmacoepidemiology. We aimed to assess the performance of IV analysis using different IVs in multiple databases in a study of antidepressant use and hip fracture. Information on adults with at least one prescription of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) or tricyclic antidepressant (TCA) during 2001-2009 was extracted from the THIN (UK), BIFAP (Spain), and Mondriaan (Netherlands) databases. IVs were created using the proportion of SSRI prescriptions per practice or using the one, five, or ten previous prescriptions by a physician. Data were analysed using conventional Cox regression and two-stage IV models. In the conventional analysis, SSRI (vs. TCA) was associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, which was consistently found across databases: the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was approximately 1.35 for time-fixed and 1.50 to 2.49 for time-varying SSRI use, while the IV analysis based on the IVs that appeared to satisfy the IV assumptions showed conflicting results, e.g. the adjusted HRs ranged from 0.55 to 2.75 for time-fixed exposure. IVs for time-varying exposure violated at least one IV assumption and were therefore invalid. This multiple database study shows that the performance of IV analysis varied across the databases for time-fixed and time-varying exposures and strongly depends on the definition of IVs. It remains challenging to obtain valid IVs in pharmacoepidemiological studies, particularly for time-varying exposure, and IV analysis should therefore be interpreted cautiously. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are generic and brand-name statins clinically equivalent? Evidence from a real data-base.

PubMed

Corrao, Giovanni; Soranna, Davide; Arfè, Andrea; Casula, Manuela; Tragni, Elena; Merlino, Luca; Mancia, Giuseppe; Catapano, Alberico L

2014-10-01

Use of generic drugs can help contain drug spending. However, there is concern among patients and physicians that generic drugs may be clinically inferior to brand-name ones. This study aimed to compare patients treated with generic and brand-name statins in terms of therapeutic interruption and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. 13,799 beneficiaries of the health care system of Lombardy, Italy, aged 40 years or older who were newly treated with generic or brand-name simvastatin during 2008, were followed until 2011 for the occurrence of two outcomes: 1) therapeutic discontinuation and 2) hospitalization for CV events. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with use of generic or brand-name at starting therapy (intention-to-treat analysis) and during follow-up (as-treated analysis) were estimated by fitting proportional hazard Cox models. A Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis was performed to account for unmeasured confounders. Patients who started on generic did not experience a different risk of discontinuation (HR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.94 to 1.02) nor of CV outcomes (HR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.79 to 1.22) from those starting on brand-name. Patients who spent >75% of time of follow-up with statin available on generics did not experience a different risk of discontinuation (HR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.87 to 1.01), nor of CV outcomes (HR: 1.06; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.34), compared with those who mainly or only used brand-name statin. Our findings do not support the notion that in the real world clinical practice brand-name statins are superior to generics for keeping therapy and preventing CV outcomes. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Breastfeeding and the risk of childhood asthma: A two-stage instrumental variable analysis to address endogeneity.

PubMed

Sharma, Nivita D

2017-09-01

Several explanations for the inconsistent results on the effects of breastfeeding on childhood asthma have been suggested. The purpose of this study was to investigate one unexplored explanation, which is the presence of a potential endogenous relationship between breastfeeding and childhood asthma. Endogeneity exists when an explanatory variable is correlated with the error term for reasons such as selection bias, reverse causality, and unmeasured confounders. Unadjusted endogeneity will bias the effect of breastfeeding on childhood asthma. To investigate potential endogeneity, a cross-sectional study of breastfeeding practices and incidence of childhood asthma in 87 pediatric patients in Georgia, the USA, was conducted using generalized linear modeling and a two-stage instrumental variable analysis. First, the relationship between breastfeeding and childhood asthma was analyzed without considering endogeneity. Second, tests for presence of endogeneity were performed and having detected endogeneity between breastfeeding and childhood asthma, a two-stage instrumental variable analysis was performed. The first stage of this analysis estimated the duration of breastfeeding and the second-stage estimated the risk of childhood asthma. When endogeneity was not taken into account, duration of breastfeeding was found to significantly increase the risk of childhood asthma (relative risk ratio [RR]=2.020, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.143-3.570]). After adjusting for endogeneity, duration of breastfeeding significantly reduced the risk of childhood asthma (RR=0.003, 95% CI: [0.000-0.240]). The findings suggest that researchers should consider evaluating how the presence of endogeneity could affect the relationship between duration of breastfeeding and the risk of childhood asthma. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

The causal effect of red blood cell folate on genome-wide methylation in cord blood: a Mendelian randomization approach.

PubMed

Binder, Alexandra M; Michels, Karin B

2013-12-04

Investigation of the biological mechanism by which folate acts to affect fetal development can inform appraisal of expected benefits and risk management. This research is ethically imperative given the ubiquity of folic acid fortified products in the US. Considering that folate is an essential component in the one-carbon metabolism pathway that provides methyl groups for DNA methylation, epigenetic modifications provide a putative molecular mechanism mediating the effect of folic acid supplementation on neonatal and pediatric outcomes. In this study we use a Mendelian Randomization Unnecessary approach to assess the effect of red blood cell (RBC) folate on genome-wide DNA methylation in cord blood. Site-specific CpG methylation within the proximal promoter regions of approximately 14,500 genes was analyzed using the Illumina Infinium Human Methylation27 Bead Chip for 50 infants from the Epigenetic Birth Cohort at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. Using methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase genotype as the instrument, the Mendelian Randomization approach identified 7 CpG loci with a significant (mostly positive) association between RBC folate and methylation level. Among the genes in closest proximity to this significant subset of CpG loci, several enriched biologic processes were involved in nucleic acid transport and metabolic processing. Compared to the standard ordinary least squares regression method, our estimates were demonstrated to be more robust to unmeasured confounding. To the authors' knowledge, this is the largest genome-wide analysis of the effects of folate on methylation pattern, and the first to employ Mendelian Randomization to assess the effects of an exposure on epigenetic modifications. These results can help guide future analyses of the causal effects of periconceptional folate levels on candidate pathways.

Clopidogrel and proton pump inhibitors - where do we stand in 2012?

PubMed Central

Drepper, Michael D; Spahr, Laurent; Frossard, Jean Louis

2012-01-01

Clopidogrel in association with aspirine is considered state of the art of medical treatment for acute coronary syndrome by reducing the risk of new ischemic events. Concomitant treatment with proton pump inhibitors in order to prevent gastrointestinal side effects is recommended by clinical guidelines. Clopidogrel needs metabolic activation predominantly by the hepatic cytochrome P450 isoenzyme Cytochrome 2C19 (CYP2C19) and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are extensively metabolized by the CYP2C19 isoenzyme as well. Several pharmacodynamic studies investigating a potential clopidogrel-PPI interaction found a significant decrease of the clopidogrel platelet antiaggregation effect for omeprazole, but not for pantoprazole. Initial clinical cohort studies in 2009 reported an increased risk for adverse cardiovascular events, when under clopidogrel and PPI treatment at the same time. These observations led the United States Food and Drug Administration and the European Medecines Agency to discourage the combination of clopidogrel and PPI (especially omeprazole) in the same year. In contrast, more recent retrospective cohort studies including propensity score matching and the only existing randomized trial have not shown any difference concerning adverse cardiovascular events when concomitantly on clopidogrel and PPI or only on clopidogrel. Three meta-analyses report an inverse correlation between clopidogrel-PPI interaction and study quality, with high and moderate quality studies not reporting any association, rising concern about unmeasured confounders biasing the low quality studies. Thus, no definite evidence exists for an effect on mortality. Because PPI induced risk reduction clearly overweighs the possible adverse cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding, combination of clopidogrel with the less CYP2C19 inhibiting pantoprazole should be recommended. PMID:22611308

Attractiveness Compensates for Low Status Background in the Prediction of Educational Attainment

PubMed Central

Bauldry, Shawn; Shanahan, Michael J.; Russo, Rosemary; Roberts, Brent W.; Damian, Rodica

2016-01-01

Background People who are perceived as good looking or as having a pleasant personality enjoy many advantages, including higher educational attainment. This study examines (1) whether associations between physical/personality attractiveness and educational attainment vary by parental socioeconomic resources and (2) whether parental socioeconomic resources predict these forms of attractiveness. Based on the theory of resource substitution with structural amplification, we hypothesized that both types of attractiveness would have a stronger association with educational attainment for people from disadvantaged backgrounds (resource substitution), but also that people from disadvantaged backgrounds would be less likely to be perceived as attractive (amplification). Methods This study draws on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health—including repeated interviewer ratings of respondents’ attractiveness—and trait-state structural equation models to examine the moderation (substitution) and mediation (amplification) of physical and personality attractiveness in the link between parental socioeconomic resources and educational attainment. Results Both perceived personality and physical attractiveness have stronger associations with educational attainment for people from families with lower levels of parental education (substitution). Further, parental education and income are associated with both dimensions of perceived attractiveness, and personality attractiveness is positively associated with educational attainment (amplification). Results do not differ by sex and race/ethnicity. Further, associations between perceived attractiveness and educational attainment remain after accounting for unmeasured family-level confounders using a sibling fixed-effects model. Conclusions Perceived attractiveness, particularly personality attractiveness, is a more important psychosocial resource for educational attainment for people from disadvantaged backgrounds than for people from advantaged backgrounds. People from disadvantaged backgrounds, however, are less likely to be perceived as attractive than people from advantaged backgrounds. PMID:27249216

Effect of treatment modality on in-hospital outcome in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage: a nationwide study in Japan (J-ASPECT Study).

PubMed

Kurogi, Ryota; Kada, Akiko; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Kamitani, Satoru; Nishimura, Ataru; Sayama, Tetsuro; Nakagawara, Jyoji; Toyoda, Kazunori; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ono, Junichi; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki; Aruga, Toru; Miyachi, Shigeru; Nagata, Izumi; Matsuda, Shinya; Yoshimura, Shinichi; Okuchi, Kazuo; Suzuki, Akifumi; Nakamura, Fumiaki; Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito; Iihara, Koji

2018-05-01

OBJECTIVE Although heterogeneity in patient outcomes following subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) has been observed across different centers, the relative merits of clipping and coiling for SAH remain unknown. The authors sought to compare the patient outcomes between these therapeutic modalities using a large nationwide discharge database encompassing hospitals with different comprehensive stroke center (CSC) capabilities. METHODS They analyzed data from 5214 patients with SAH (clipping 3624, coiling 1590) who had been urgently hospitalized at 393 institutions in Japan in the period from April 2012 to March 2013. In-hospital mortality, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, cerebral infarction, complications, hospital length of stay, and medical costs were compared between the clipping and coiling groups after adjustment for patient-level and hospital-level characteristics by using mixed-model analysis. RESULTS Patients who had undergone coiling had significantly higher in-hospital mortality (12.4% vs 8.7%, OR 1.3) and a shorter median hospital stay (32.0 vs 37.0 days, p < 0.001) than those who had undergone clipping. The respective proportions of patients discharged with mRS scores of 3-6 (46.4% and 42.9%) and median medical costs (thousands US$, 35.7 and 36.7) were not significantly different between the groups. These results remained robust after further adjustment for CSC capabilities as a hospital-related covariate. CONCLUSIONS Despite the increasing use of coiling, clipping remains the mainstay treatment for SAH. Regardless of CSC capabilities, clipping was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality, similar unfavorable functional outcomes and medical costs, and a longer hospital stay as compared with coiling in 2012 in Japan. Further study is required to determine the influence of unmeasured confounders.

Is more better than less? An analysis of children's mental health services.

PubMed Central

Foster, E M

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the dose-response relationship for outpatient therapy received by children and adolescents-that is, to determine the impact of added outpatient visits on key mental health outcomes (functioning and symptomatology). DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: The results presented involve analyses of data from the Fort Bragg Demonstration and are based on a sample of 301 individuals using outpatient services. STUDY DESIGN: This article provides estimates of the impact of outpatient therapy based on comparisons of individuals receiving differing treatment doses. Those comparisons involve standard multiple regression analyses as well as instrumental variables estimation. The latter provides a means of adjusting comparisons for unobserved or unmeasured differences among individuals receiving differing doses, differences that would otherwise be confounded with the impact of treatment dose. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Using structured diagnostic interviews and behavior checklists completed by the child and his or her caretaker, detailed data on psychopathology, symptomatology, and psychosocial functioning were collected on individuals included in these analyses. Information on the use of mental health services was taken from insurance claims and a management information system. Services data were used to describe the use of outpatient therapy within the year following entry into the study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: Instrumental variables estimation indicates that added outpatient therapy improves functioning among children and adolescents. The effect is statistically significant and of moderate practical magnitude. These results imply that conventional analyses of the dose-response relationship may understate the impact of additional treatment on functioning. This finding is robust to choice of functional form, length of time over which outcomes are measured, and model specification. Dose does not appear to influence symptomatology. PMID:11130814

The use of propensity score methods with survival or time-to-event outcomes: reporting measures of effect similar to those used in randomized experiments.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2014-03-30

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies. In medical and epidemiological studies, outcomes are frequently time-to-event in nature. Propensity-score methods are often applied incorrectly when estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. This article describes how two different propensity score methods (matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting) can be used to estimate the measures of effect that are frequently reported in randomized controlled trials: (i) marginal survival curves, which describe survival in the population if all subjects were treated or if all subjects were untreated; and (ii) marginal hazard ratios. The use of these propensity score methods allows one to replicate the measures of effect that are commonly reported in randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: both absolute and relative reductions in the probability of an event occurring can be determined. We also provide guidance on variable selection for the propensity score model, highlight methods for assessing the balance of baseline covariates between treated and untreated subjects, and describe the implementation of a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of unmeasured confounding variables on the estimated treatment effect when outcomes are time-to-event in nature. The methods in the paper are illustrated by estimating the effect of discharge statin prescribing on the risk of death in a sample of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. In this tutorial article, we describe and illustrate all the steps necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. © 2013 The authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Attractiveness Compensates for Low Status Background in the Prediction of Educational Attainment.

PubMed

Bauldry, Shawn; Shanahan, Michael J; Russo, Rosemary; Roberts, Brent W; Damian, Rodica

2016-01-01

People who are perceived as good looking or as having a pleasant personality enjoy many advantages, including higher educational attainment. This study examines (1) whether associations between physical/personality attractiveness and educational attainment vary by parental socioeconomic resources and (2) whether parental socioeconomic resources predict these forms of attractiveness. Based on the theory of resource substitution with structural amplification, we hypothesized that both types of attractiveness would have a stronger association with educational attainment for people from disadvantaged backgrounds (resource substitution), but also that people from disadvantaged backgrounds would be less likely to be perceived as attractive (amplification). This study draws on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health-including repeated interviewer ratings of respondents' attractiveness-and trait-state structural equation models to examine the moderation (substitution) and mediation (amplification) of physical and personality attractiveness in the link between parental socioeconomic resources and educational attainment. Both perceived personality and physical attractiveness have stronger associations with educational attainment for people from families with lower levels of parental education (substitution). Further, parental education and income are associated with both dimensions of perceived attractiveness, and personality attractiveness is positively associated with educational attainment (amplification). Results do not differ by sex and race/ethnicity. Further, associations between perceived attractiveness and educational attainment remain after accounting for unmeasured family-level confounders using a sibling fixed-effects model. Perceived attractiveness, particularly personality attractiveness, is a more important psychosocial resource for educational attainment for people from disadvantaged backgrounds than for people from advantaged backgrounds. People from disadvantaged backgrounds, however, are less likely to be perceived as attractive than people from advantaged backgrounds.

A Genetically Informed Study of Associations between Family Functioning and Child Psychosocial Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schermerhorn, Alice C.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Turkheimer, Eric; Ganiban, Jody M.; Spotts, Erica L.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Reiss, David; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.

2011-01-01

Research has documented associations between family functioning and offspring psychosocial adjustment, but questions remain regarding whether these associations are partly due to confounding genetic factors and other environmental factors. The current study used a genetically informed approach, the Children of Twins design, to explore the…

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

PubMed

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

A Genetically Informed Study of the Processes Underlying the Association Between Parental Marital Instability and Offspring Adjustment

PubMed Central

D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E.; Heath, Andrew C.; Madden, Pamela A.; Slutske, Wendy S.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2010-01-01

Parental divorce is associated with problematic offspring adjustment, but the relation may be due to shared genetic or environmental factors. One way to test for these confounds is to study offspring of twins discordant for divorce. The current analyses used this design to separate the mechanisms responsible for the association between parental divorce, experienced either before or after the age of 16, and offspring well-being. The results were consistent with a causal role of divorce in earlier initiation of sexual intercourse and emotional difficulties, in addition to a greater probability of educational problems, depressed mood, and suicidal ideation. In contrast, the increased risk for cohabitation and earlier initiation of drug use was explained by selection factors, including genetic confounds. PMID:16756440

Determinants of demand for total hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Documented age, gender, race and socio-economic disparities in total joint arthroplasty (TJA), suggest that those who need the surgery may not receive it, and present a challenge to explain the causes of unmet need. It is not clear whether doctors limit treatment opportunities to patients, nor is it known the effect that patient beliefs and expectations about the operation, including their paid work status and retirement plans, have on the decision to undergo TJA. Identifying socio-economic and other determinants of demand would inform the design of effective and efficient health policy. This review was conducted to identify the factors that lead patients in need to undergo TJA. Methods An electronic search of the Embase and Medline (Ovid) bibliographic databases conducted in September 2011 identified studies in the English language that reported on factors driving patients in need of hip or knee replacement to undergo surgery. The review included reports of elective surgery rates in eligible patients or, controlling for disease severity, in general subjects, and stated clinical experts’ and patients’ opinions on suitability for or willingness to undergo TJA. Quantitative and qualitative studies were reviewed, but quantitative studies involving fewer than 20 subjects were excluded. The quality of individual studies was assessed on the basis of study design (i.e., prospective versus retrospective), reporting of attrition, adjustment for and report of confounding effects, and reported measures of need (self-reported versus doctor-assessed). Reported estimates of effect on the probability of surgery from analyses adjusting for confounders were summarised in narrative form and synthesised in odds ratio (OR) forest plots for individual determinants. Results The review included 26 quantitative studies−23 on individuals’ decisions or views on having the operation and three about health professionals’ opinions-and 10 qualitative studies. Ethnic and racial disparities in TJA use are associated with socio-economic access factors and expectations about the process and outcomes of surgery. In the United States, health insurance coverage affects demand, including that from the Medicare population, for whom having supplemental Medicaid coverage increases the likelihood of undergoing TJA. Patients with post-secondary education are more likely to demand hip or knee surgery than those without it (range of OR 0.87-2.38). Women are as willing to undergo surgery as men, but they are less likely to be offered surgery by specialists than men with the same need. There is considerable variation in patient demand with age, with distinct patterns for hip and knee. Paid employment appears to increase the chances of undergoing surgery, but no study was found that investigated the relationship between retirement plans and demand for TJA. There is evidence of substantial geographical variation in access to joint replacement within the territory covered by a public national health system, which is unlikely to be explained by differences in preference or unmeasured need alone. The literature tends to focus on associations, rather than testing of causal relationships, and is insufficient to assess the relative importance of determinants. Conclusions Patients’ use of hip and knee replacement is a function of their socio-economic circumstances, which reinforce disparities by gender and race originating in the doctor-patient interaction. Willingness to undergo surgery declines steeply after the age of retirement, at the time some eligible patients may lower their expectations of health status achievement. There is some evidence that paid employment independently increases the likelihood of operation. The relative contribution of variations in surgical decision making to differential access across regions within countries deserves further research that controls for clinical need and patient lifestyle preferences, including retirement decisions. Evidence on this question will become increasingly relevant for service planning and policy design in societies with ageing populations. PMID:22846144

Testosterone during pregnancy and gender role behavior of preschool children: a longitudinal, population study.

PubMed

Hines, Melissa; Golombok, Susan; Rust, John; Johnston, Katie J; Golding, Jean

2002-01-01

Levels of testosterone (T) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were measured in blood samples from pregnant women and related to gender role behavior in 342 male and 337 female offspring at the age of 3.5 years. Gender role behavior was assessed using the Pre-School Activities Inventory, a standardized measure on which a parent indicates the child's involvement with sex-typical toys, games, and activities. Levels of T, but not SHBG, related linearly to gender role behavior in preschool girls. Neither hormone related to gender role behavior in boys. Other factors, including the presence of older brothers or sisters in the home, parental adherence to traditional sex roles, the presence of a male partner in the home, and maternal education, did not relate to gender role behavior in this sample and did not account for the relation observed between T and behavior. Although other, unmeasured factors may explain the relation, the results suggest that normal variability in T levels prenatally may contribute to the development of individual differences in the gender role behavior of preschool girls.

Confounding factors and genetic polymorphism in the evaluation of individual steroid profiling

PubMed Central

Kuuranne, Tiia; Saugy, Martial; Baume, Norbert

2014-01-01

In the fight against doping, steroid profiling is a powerful tool to detect drug misuse with endogenous anabolic androgenic steroids. To establish sensitive and reliable models, the factors influencing profiling should be recognised. We performed an extensive literature review of the multiple factors that could influence the quantitative levels and ratios of endogenous steroids in urine matrix. For a comprehensive and scientific evaluation of the urinary steroid profile, it is necessary to define the target analytes as well as testosterone metabolism. The two main confounding factors, that is, endogenous and exogenous factors, are detailed to show the complex process of quantifying the steroid profile within WADA-accredited laboratories. Technical aspects are also discussed as they could have a significant impact on the steroid profile, and thus the steroid module of the athlete biological passport (ABP). The different factors impacting the major components of the steroid profile must be understood to ensure scientifically sound interpretation through the Bayesian model of the ABP. Not only should the statistical data be considered but also the experts in the field must be consulted for successful implementation of the steroidal module. PMID:24764553

Keeping children safe at home: protocol for three matched case–control studies of modifiable risk factors for falls

PubMed Central

Kendrick, Denise; Stewart, Jane; Clacy, Rose; Coffey, Frank; Cooper, Nicola; Coupland, Carol; Hayes, Mike; McColl, Elaine; Reading, Richard; Sutton, Alex; M L Towner, Elizabeth; Craig Watson, Michael

2012-01-01

Background Childhood falls result in considerable morbidity, mortality and health service use. Despite this, little evidence exists on protective factors or effective falls prevention interventions in young children. Objectives To estimate ORs for three types of medically attended fall injuries in young children in relation to safety equipment, safety behaviours and hazard reduction and explore differential effects by child and family factors and injury severity. Design Three multicentre case–control studies in UK hospitals with validation of parental reported exposures using home observations. Cases are aged 0–4 years with a medically attended fall injury occurring at home, matched on age and sex with community controls. Children attending hospital for other types of injury will serve as unmatched hospital controls. Matched analyses will use conditional logistic regression to adjust for potential confounding variables. Unmatched analyses will use unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, deprivation and distance from hospital in addition to other confounders. Each study requires 496 cases and 1984 controls to detect an OR of 0.7, with 80% power, 5% significance level, a correlation between cases and controls of 0.1 and a range of exposure prevalences. Main outcome measures Falls on stairs, on one level and from furniture. Discussion As the largest in the field to date, these case control studies will adjust for potential confounders, validate measures of exposure and investigate modifiable risk factors for specific falls injury mechanisms. Findings should enhance the evidence base for falls prevention for young children. PMID:22628151

A propensity score approach to correction for bias due to population stratification using genetic and non-genetic factors.

PubMed

Zhao, Huaqing; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Mitra, Nandita

2009-12-01

Confounding due to population stratification (PS) arises when differences in both allele and disease frequencies exist in a population of mixed racial/ethnic subpopulations. Genomic control, structured association, principal components analysis (PCA), and multidimensional scaling (MDS) approaches have been proposed to address this bias using genetic markers. However, confounding due to PS can also be due to non-genetic factors. Propensity scores are widely used to address confounding in observational studies but have not been adapted to deal with PS in genetic association studies. We propose a genomic propensity score (GPS) approach to correct for bias due to PS that considers both genetic and non-genetic factors. We compare the GPS method with PCA and MDS using simulation studies. Our results show that GPS can adequately adjust and consistently correct for bias due to PS. Under no/mild, moderate, and severe PS, GPS yielded estimated with bias close to 0 (mean=-0.0044, standard error=0.0087). Under moderate or severe PS, the GPS method consistently outperforms the PCA method in terms of bias, coverage probability (CP), and type I error. Under moderate PS, the GPS method consistently outperforms the MDS method in terms of CP. PCA maintains relatively high power compared to both MDS and GPS methods under the simulated situations. GPS and MDS are comparable in terms of statistical properties such as bias, type I error, and power. The GPS method provides a novel and robust tool for obtaining less-biased estimates of genetic associations that can consider both genetic and non-genetic factors. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Depression and Physical Inactivity as Confounding the Effect of Obesity on Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Garimella, Roja S; Sears, Samuel F; Gehi, Anil K

2016-06-01

Obesity is associated with an increased likelihood for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and with worsened AF symptom severity. However, other factors that are correlated with obesity may confound or mediate the relation of obesity with AF symptom severity. The purpose of this study was to determine if depression and physical inactivity may confound the association of obesity and AF symptom severity. Health status and demographic data were captured by questionnaire for 332 outpatients with documented AF. Weight/height was measured and body mass index (kg/m(2)) calculated. Recent depression symptom severity was assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 questionnaire. Physical activity during the last month was assessed by questionnaire. AF symptom severity was assessed using the University of Toronto AF Severity scale. Multivariate linear regression was used to evaluate which factors were associated with AF symptom severity. Obesity in patients with AF is associated with increased depression severity. In bivariate analysis, increasing body mass index (p = 0.001), lower levels of physical activity (p <0.001), and more severe depression (p <0.001) were associated with worsened AF symptom severity. In multivariate analysis, only physical activity and depression persisted as significant predictors of AF symptom severity. In conclusion, although obesity likely contributes to the substrate predisposing to the development of AF, other factors may contribute to or mediate the worsened AF symptoms associated with obesity. Depression symptoms and physical inactivity, factors closely correlated with obesity, may exacerbate symptoms in patients with AF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian effect estimation accounting for adjustment uncertainty.

PubMed

Wang, Chi; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Dominici, Francesca

2012-09-01

Model-based estimation of the effect of an exposure on an outcome is generally sensitive to the choice of which confounding factors are included in the model. We propose a new approach, which we call Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), to estimate the effect of an exposure of interest on the outcome, while accounting for the uncertainty in the choice of confounders. Our approach is based on specifying two models: (1) the outcome as a function of the exposure and the potential confounders (the outcome model); and (2) the exposure as a function of the potential confounders (the exposure model). We consider Bayesian variable selection on both models and link the two by introducing a dependence parameter, ω, denoting the prior odds of including a predictor in the outcome model, given that the same predictor is in the exposure model. In the absence of dependence (ω= 1), BAC reduces to traditional Bayesian model averaging (BMA). In simulation studies, we show that BAC, with ω > 1, estimates the exposure effect with smaller bias than traditional BMA, and improved coverage. We, then, compare BAC, a recent approach of Crainiceanu, Dominici, and Parmigiani (2008, Biometrika 95, 635-651), and traditional BMA in a time series data set of hospital admissions, air pollution levels, and weather variables in Nassau, NY for the period 1999-2005. Using each approach, we estimate the short-term effects of on emergency admissions for cardiovascular diseases, accounting for confounding. This application illustrates the potentially significant pitfalls of misusing variable selection methods in the context of adjustment uncertainty. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

A Census of Prison-Based Drug Treatment Programs: Implications for Programming, Policy, and Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welsh, Wayne N.; Zajac, Gary

2004-01-01

Despite a growing realization that unmeasured programmatic differences influence prison-based drug treatment effectiveness, few attempts to systematically measure such differences have been made. To improve program planning and evaluation in this area, we developed a census instrument to collect descriptive information about 118 prison-based drug…

Issues in the Analysis of Selectivity Bias. Discussion Papers. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnow, Burt S.; And Others

Selectivity bias arises in program evaluation when the treatment or control status of the subjects is related to unmeasured characteristics that themselves are related to the program outcome under study. This situation has the potential to lead to an incorrect estimation of the treatment effect when assignment to treatment and control groups is…

The Process of Indicator Selection

Treesearch

Barry R. Noon; Kevin S. McKelvey

2006-01-01

Of all the steps in monitoring, choosing the correct indicators is arguably the most important. The challenge is obvious: among all the possible attributes of an ecosystem that can be measured, select a small number whose measurement will tell you something about all of the unmeasured attributes and processes. Even if a monitoring program is fully funded and...

Strengthening the case for saproxylic arthropod conservation: a call for ecosystem services research

Treesearch

Michael Ulyshen

2013-01-01

While research on the ecosystem services provided by biodiversity is becoming widely embraced as an important tool in conservation, the services provided by saproxylic arthropods - an especially diverse and threatened assemblage dependent on dead or dying wood - remain unmeasured. A conceptual model depicting the reciprocal relationships between dead wood and...

Causal Models with Unmeasured Variables: An Introduction to LISREL.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolfle, Lee M.

Whenever one uses ordinary least squares regression, one is making an implicit assumption that all of the independent variables have been measured without error. Such an assumption is obviously unrealistic for most social data. One approach for estimating such regression models is to measure implied coefficients between latent variables for which…

High School Economic Composition and College Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niu, Sunny X.; Tienda, Marta

2013-01-01

Using a longitudinal sample of Texas high school seniors of 2002 who enrolled in college within the calendar year of high school graduation, we examine variation in college persistence according to the economic composition of their high schools, which serves as a proxy for unmeasured high school attributes that are conductive to postsecondary…

extrap: Software to assist the selection of extrapolation methods for moving-boat ADCP streamflow measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, David S.

2013-04-01

Selection of the appropriate extrapolation methods for computing the discharge in the unmeasured top and bottom parts of a moving-boat acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) streamflow measurement is critical to the total discharge computation. The software tool, extrap, combines normalized velocity profiles from the entire cross section and multiple transects to determine a mean profile for the measurement. The use of an exponent derived from normalized data from the entire cross section is shown to be valid for application of the power velocity distribution law in the computation of the unmeasured discharge in a cross section. Selected statistics are combined with empirically derived criteria to automatically select the appropriate extrapolation methods. A graphical user interface (GUI) provides the user tools to visually evaluate the automatically selected extrapolation methods and manually change them, as necessary. The sensitivity of the total discharge to available extrapolation methods is presented in the GUI. Use of extrap by field hydrographers has demonstrated that extrap is a more accurate and efficient method of determining the appropriate extrapolation methods compared with tools currently (2012) provided in the ADCP manufacturers' software.

Observer-based robust finite time H∞ sliding mode control for Markovian switching systems with mode-dependent time-varying delay and incomplete transition rate.

PubMed

Gao, Lijun; Jiang, Xiaoxiao; Wang, Dandan

2016-03-01

This paper investigates the problem of robust finite time H∞ sliding mode control for a class of Markovian switching systems. The system is subjected to the mode-dependent time-varying delay, partly unknown transition rate and unmeasurable state. The main difficulty is that, a sliding mode surface cannot be designed based on the unknown transition rate and unmeasurable state directly. To overcome this obstacle, the set of modes is firstly divided into two subsets standing for known transition rate subset and unknown one, based on which a state observer is established. A component robust finite-time sliding mode controller is also designed to cope with the effect of partially unknown transition rate. It is illustrated that the reachability, finite-time stability, finite-time boundedness, finite-time H∞ state feedback stabilization of sliding mode dynamics can be ensured despite the unknown transition rate. Finally, the simulation results verify the effectiveness of robust finite time control problem. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of the relationship between work engagement and symptoms of anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Innstrand, Siw Tone; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Falkum, Erik

2012-02-01

This longitudinal study examined the dynamic relationship between work engagement (vigour and dedication) and symptoms of anxiety and depression. A sample of 3475 respondents from eight different occupational groups (lawyers, physicians, nurses, teachers, church ministers, bus drivers, people working in advertising and people working in information technology) in Norway supplied data at two points in time with a 2-year time interval. The advantages of longitudinal design were utilized, including testing of reversed causation and controlling for unmeasured third variables. In general, the results showed that the hypothesized normal causal relationship was superior to a reversed causation model. In other words, this study supported the assumption that work engagement is more likely to be the antecedent for symptoms of depression and anxiety than the outcome. In particular, the vigour facet of work engagement provides lower levels of depression and anxiety 2 years later. However, additional analyses modelling unmeasured third variables indicate that unknown third variables may have created some spurious effects on the pattern of the observed relationship. Implications of the findings are discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Malnutrition and subsequent ischemic heart disease in former prisoners of war of World War II and the Korean conflict.

PubMed

Page, W F; Ostfeld, A M

1994-12-01

The harsh treatment of former prisoners of war (POWs) of World War II and the Korean conflict resulted in severe malnutrition. Although rarely linked to specific long-term medical problems, a specific marker of malnutrition, self-reported lower limb edema (presumably due to a vitamin B deficiency) was associated with a three-fold increase in subsequent death attributed to ischemic heart disease (IHD) during the follow-up period from 1967 through 1975. Although there is at present no medical basis for linking edema, which is perhaps a marker for some unmeasured risk factor, to subsequent IHD, this finding may nonetheless have medical implications for the group of former POWs and other populations with severe dietary deficiency. It also suggests there may be a need to reexamine currently held theories on malnutrition and subsequent chronic disease.

Damping system for torsion modes of mirror isolation filters in TAMA300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arase, Y.; Takahashi, R.; Arai, K.; Tatsumi, D.; Fukushima, M.; Yamazaki, T.; Fujimoto, Masa-Katsu; Agatsuma, K.; Nakagawa, N.

2008-07-01

The seismic attenuation system (SAS) in TAMA300 consists of a three-legged inverted pendulum and mirror isolation filters in order to provide a high level of seismic isolation. However, the mirror isolation filters have torsion modes with long decay time which disturb the interferometer operation for about half an hour if they get excited. In order to damp the torsion modes of the filters, we constructed a digital damping system using reflective photosensors with a large linear range. This system was installed to all of four SASs. By damping of the target torsion modes, the effective quality factors of the torsion modes are reduced to less than 10 or to unmeasurable level. This system is expected to reduce the inoperative period by the torsion mode excitation, and thus will contribute to improve the duty time of the gravitational wave detector.

Nursing workload in the acute-care setting: A concept analysis of nursing workload.

PubMed

Swiger, Pauline A; Vance, David E; Patrician, Patricia A

2016-01-01

A pressing need in the field of nursing is the identification of optimal staffing levels to ensure patient safety. Effective staffing requires comprehensive measurement of nursing workload to determine staffing needs. Issues surrounding nursing workload are complex, and the volume of workload is growing; however, many workload systems do not consider the numerous workload factors that impact nursing today. The purpose of this concept analysis was to better understand and define nursing workload as it relates to the acute-care setting. Rogers' evolutionary method was used for this literature-based concept analysis. Nursing workload is influenced by more than patient care. The proposed definition of nursing workload may help leaders identify workload that is unnoticed and unmeasured. These findings could help leaders consider and identify workload that is unnecessary, redundant, or more appropriate for assignment to other members of the health care team. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

DOE PAGES

Palm, Brett B.; de Sá, Suzane S.; Day, Douglas A.; ...

2018-01-17

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O 3, over ranges from hours to days (O 3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to asmore » much as 10 μg m -3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O 3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air, and confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O : C up to O : C ~ 1.0, and then decreased as O : C increased further. Some possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. And while measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O 3, they could only explain 10–50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C = C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. Our study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.« less

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palm, Brett B.; de Sá, Suzane S.; Day, Douglas A.; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Hu, Weiwei; Seco, Roger; Sjostedt, Steven J.; Park, Jeong-Hoo; Guenther, Alex B.; Kim, Saewung; Brito, Joel; Wurm, Florian; Artaxo, Paulo; Thalman, Ryan; Wang, Jian; Yee, Lindsay D.; Wernis, Rebecca; Isaacman-VanWertz, Gabriel; Goldstein, Allen H.; Liu, Yingjun; Springston, Stephen R.; Souza, Rodrigo; Newburn, Matt K.; Lizabeth Alexander, M.; Martin, Scot T.; Jimenez, Jose L.

2018-01-01

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O3, over ranges from hours to days (O3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to as much as 10 µg m-3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air and were confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O : C up to O : C ˜ 1.0, and then decreased as O : C increased further. Possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. While measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O3, they could only explain 10-50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies, which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C = C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. This study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palm, Brett B.; de Sá, Suzane S.; Day, Douglas A.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O 3, over ranges from hours to days (O 3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to asmore » much as 10 μg m -3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O 3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air, and confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O : C up to O : C ~ 1.0, and then decreased as O : C increased further. Some possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. And while measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O 3, they could only explain 10–50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C = C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. Our study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.« less

Secondary organic aerosol formation from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in central Amazonia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palm, Brett B.; de Sá, Suzane S.; Day, Douglas A.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from ambient air was studied using an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) coupled to an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) during both the wet and dry seasons at the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. Measurements were made at two sites downwind of the city of Manaus, Brazil. Ambient air was oxidized in the OFR using variable concentrations of either OH or O 3, over ranges from hours to days (O 3) or weeks (OH) of equivalent atmospheric aging. The amount of SOA formed in the OFR ranged from 0 to asmore » much as 10 µg m −3, depending on the amount of SOA precursor gases in ambient air. Typically, more SOA was formed during nighttime than daytime, and more from OH than from O 3 oxidation. SOA yields of individual organic precursors under OFR conditions were measured by standard addition into ambient air and were confirmed to be consistent with published environmental chamber-derived SOA yields. Positive matrix factorization of organic aerosol (OA) after OH oxidation showed formation of typical oxidized OA factors and a loss of primary OA factors as OH aging increased. After OH oxidation in the OFR, the hygroscopicity of the OA increased with increasing elemental O : C up to O : C ∼ 1.0, and then decreased as O : C increased further. Possible reasons for this decrease are discussed. The measured SOA formation was compared to the amount predicted from the concentrations of measured ambient SOA precursors and their SOA yields. While measured ambient precursors were sufficient to explain the amount of SOA formed from O 3, they could only explain 10–50 % of the SOA formed from OH. This is consistent with previous OFR studies, which showed that typically unmeasured semivolatile and intermediate volatility gases (that tend to lack C = C bonds) are present in ambient air and can explain such additional SOA formation. To investigate the sources of the unmeasured SOA-forming gases during this campaign, multilinear regression analysis was performed between measured SOA formation and the concentration of gas-phase tracers representing different precursor sources. The majority of SOA-forming gases present during both seasons were of biogenic origin. Urban sources also contributed substantially in both seasons, while biomass burning sources were more important during the dry season. This study enables a better understanding of SOA formation in environments with diverse emission sources.« less

The donor risk index: A decade of experience.

PubMed

Flores, Avegail; Asrani, Sumeet K

2017-09-01

In 2006, derivation of the donor risk index (DRI) highlighted the importance of donor factors for successful liver transplantation. Over the last decade, the DRI has served as a useful metric of donor quality and has enhanced our understanding of donor factors and their impact upon recipients with hepatitis C virus, those with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and individuals undergoing retransplantation. DRI has provided the transplant community with a common language for describing donor organ characteristics and has served as the foundation for several tools for organ risk assessment. It is a useful tool in assessing the interactions of donor factors with recipient factors and their impact on posttransplant outcomes. However, limitations of statistical modeling, choice of donor factors, exclusion of unaccounted donor and geographic factors, and the changing face of the liver transplant recipient have tempered its widespread use. In addition, the DRI was derived from data before the MELD era but is currently being applied to expand the donor pool while concurrently meeting the demands of a dynamic allocation system. A decade after its introduction, DRI remains relevant but may benefit from being updated to provide guidance in the use of extended criteria donors by accounting for the impact of geography and unmeasured donor characteristics. DRI could be better adapted for recipients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease by examining and including recipient factors unique to this population. Liver Transplantation 23 1216-1225 2017 AASLD. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The Association Between Headaches and Temporomandibular Disorders is Confounded by Bruxism and Somatic Symptoms.

PubMed

van der Meer, Hedwig A; Speksnijder, Caroline M; Engelbert, Raoul H H; Lobbezoo, Frank; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W G; Visscher, Corine M

2017-09-01

The objective of this observational study was to establish the possible presence of confounders on the association between temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and headaches in a patient population from a TMD and Orofacial Pain Clinic. Several subtypes of headaches have been diagnosed: self-reported headache, (probable) migraine, (probable) tension-type headache, and secondary headache attributed to TMD. The presence of TMD was subdivided into 2 subtypes: painful TMD and function-related TMD. The associations between the subtypes of TMD and headaches were evaluated by single regression models. To study the influence of possible confounding factors on this association, the regression models were extended with age, sex, bruxism, stress, depression, and somatic symptoms. Of the included patients (n=203), 67.5% experienced headaches. In the subsample of patients with a painful TMD (n=58), the prevalence of self-reported headaches increased to 82.8%. The associations found between self-reported headache and (1) painful TMD and (2) function-related TMD were confounded by the presence of somatic symptoms. For probable migraine, both somatic symptoms and bruxism confounded the initial association found with painful TMD. The findings of this study imply that there is a central working mechanism overlapping TMD and headache. Health care providers should not regard these disorders separately, but rather look at the bigger picture to appreciate the complex nature of the diagnostic and therapeutic process.

The gender gap in sickness absence from work and the influence of parental absence on offspring absence 15 years later: register-based cohort of Norwegians born in 1974-1976.

PubMed

Kristensen, Petter; Corbett, Karina; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind

2015-07-21

Women have shown consistently higher levels of sickness absence from work in comparison to men, but explanations for this gender gap have not been completely understood. Life-course studies suggest that health and health-related social benefits in adult age are influenced by early life experiences. We aimed to estimate intergenerational associations with a 15-year time gap between parents' and offspring sickness absences, pursuing the hypothesis that this parental influence would have a stronger impact for women than for men. All persons born alive between 1974 and 1976 in Norway were followed up in several national registries. Employed persons considered to be at risk of sickness absence and also with parents at risk of sickness absence (n = 78,878) were followed in the calendar year of their 33(rd) birthday with respect to spells lasting >16 days. The probability of one or more spells during this year constituted the one-year risk under study. Additive risk differences in association with an exposure (parental sickness absence 15 years earlier) were estimated in a binomial regression analysis. The estimates were adjusted for parental socioeconomic factors. The 1-year sickness absence risk was higher for women (30.4%) than for men (12.3%). The crude risk differences between those exposed and those unexposed to parental sickness absence were similar in percentage points (PP) for women (3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6 to 4.9) and men (3.8; 95% CI 2.9 to 4.6). The risk differences were moderately attenuated after adjustment for parental education and father's income to 3.4 PP (2.2 to 4.5) for women and 2.8 PP (2.0 to 3.7) for men. Male absence was more strongly associated with the father's than with the mother's sickness absence, while associations for women were stronger for the same diagnostic groups as their parents. Parental sickness absence was moderately associated with sickness absence in the next generation. Bias from unmeasured confounders cannot be entirely dismissed. Contrary to our hypothesis, associations were not stronger for women than for men. If parental sickness absence has a long-term causal effect, preventive measures could have an impact over generations.

The risk of fall and fracture with the initiation of a prostate-selective α antagonist: a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Welk, Blayne; McArthur, Eric; Fraser, Lisa-Ann; Hayward, Jade; Dixon, Stephanie; Hwang, Y Joseph; Ordon, Michael

2015-10-26

Do men starting treatment with prostate-specific α antagonists have increased risk of fall and fracture? Administrative datasets from the province of Ontario, Canada, that contain patient level data were used to generate a cohort of 147,084 men aged ≥ 66 years who filled their first outpatient prescription for prostate-specific α antagonists tamsulosin, alfuzosin, or silodosin between June 2003 and December 2013 (exposed men) plus an equal sized cohort matched 1:1 (using a propensity score model) who did not initiate α antagonist therapy. The primary outcome was a hospital emergency room visit or inpatient admission for a fall or fracture in the 90 days after exposure. The men exposed to prostate-specific α antagonist had significantly increased risks of falling (odds ratio 1.14 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.21), absolute risk increase 0.17% (0.08 to 0.25%)) and of sustaining a fracture (odds ratio 1.16 (1.04 to 1.29), absolute risk increase 0.06% (0.02 to 0.11%)) compared with the unexposed cohort. This increased risk was not observed in the period before α antagonist use. Secondary outcomes of hypotension and head trauma were also significantly increased in the exposed cohort (odds ratios 1.80 (1.59 to 2.03) and 1.15 (1.04 to 1.27) respectively). The two cohorts were similar across 98 different covariates including demographics, comorbid conditions, medication use, healthcare use, and prior medical investigation. Potential unmeasured confounders, such as physical deconditioning, mobility impairment, and situational risk factors, may exist. The data used to identify the primary outcomes had limited sensitivity, so the absolute risks of the outcomes are probably underestimates. The study only included men ≥ 66 years old, and 84% of exposed men were prescribed tamsulosin, so results may not be generalizable to younger men, and there may not be statistical power to show small differences in outcomes between the drugs. Prostate-specific α antagonists are associated with a small but significant increased risk of fall, fracture, and head trauma, probably as a result of induced hypotension. This project was conducted at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) Western Site through the Kidney, Dialysis, and Transplantation (KDT) research program. BW has received a research grant from Astellas, and L-AF does consultancy for Amgen. © Welk et al 2015.