I feel good! Gender differences and reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health.

PubMed

Schneider, Udo; Pfarr, Christian; Schneider, Brit S; Ulrich, Volker

2012-06-01

For empirical analysis and policy-oriented recommendations, the precise measurement of individual health or well-being is essential. The difficulty is that the answer may depend on individual reporting behaviour. Moreover, if an individual's health perception varies with certain attitudes of the respondent, reporting heterogeneity may lead to index or cut-point shifts of the health distribution, causing estimation problems. An index shift is a parallel shift in the thresholds of the underlying distribution of health categories. In contrast, a cut-point shift means that the relative position of the thresholds changes, implying different response behaviour. Our paper aims to detect how socioeconomic determinants and health experiences influence the individual valuation of health. We analyse the reporting behaviour of individuals on their self-assessed health status, a five-point categorical variable. Using German panel data, we control for observed heterogeneity in the categorical health variable as well as unobserved individual heterogeneity in the panel estimation. In the empirical analysis, we find strong evidence for cut-point shifts. Our estimation results show different impacts of socioeconomic and health-related variables on the five categories of self-assessed health. Moreover, the answering behaviour varies between female and male respondents, pointing to gender-specific perception and assessment of health. Hence, in case of reporting heterogeneity, using self-assessed measures in empirical studies may be misleading and the information needs to be handled with care.

Failure time analysis with unobserved heterogeneity: Earthquake duration time of Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ata, Nihal, E-mail: nihalata@hacettepe.edu.tr; Kadilar, Gamze Özel, E-mail: gamzeozl@hacettepe.edu.tr

Failure time models assume that all units are subject to same risks embodied in the hazard functions. In this paper, unobserved sources of heterogeneity that are not captured by covariates are included into the failure time models. Destructive earthquakes in Turkey since 1900 are used to illustrate the models and inter-event time between two consecutive earthquakes are defined as the failure time. The paper demonstrates how seismicity and tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatio-temporal variability of earthquakes and presents several advantages compared to more traditional approaches.

Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data

PubMed Central

Stack, J. Conrad; Bansal, Shweta; Kumar, V. S. Anil; Grenfell, Bryan

2013-01-01

Models of infectious disease spread that incorporate contact heterogeneity through contact networks are an important tool for epidemiologists studying disease dynamics and assessing intervention strategies. One of the challenges of contact network epidemiology has been the difficulty of collecting individual and population-level data needed to develop an accurate representation of the underlying host population's contact structure. In this study, we evaluate the utility of common epidemiological measures (R0, epidemic peak size, duration and final size) for inferring the degree of heterogeneity in a population's unobserved contact structure through a Bayesian approach. We test the method using ground truth data and find that some of these epidemiological metrics are effective at classifying contact heterogeneity. The classification is also consistent across pathogen transmission probabilities, and so can be applied even when this characteristic is unknown. In particular, the reproductive number, R0, turns out to be a poor classifier of the degree heterogeneity, while, unexpectedly, final epidemic size is a powerful predictor of network structure across the range of heterogeneity. We also evaluate our framework on empirical epidemiological data from past and recent outbreaks to demonstrate its application in practice and to gather insights about the relevance of particular contact structures for both specific systems and general classes of infectious disease. We thus introduce a simple approach that can shed light on the unobserved connectivity of a host population given epidemic data. Our study has the potential to inform future data-collection efforts and study design by driving our understanding of germane epidemic measures, and highlights a general inferential approach to learning about host contact structure in contemporary or historic populations of humans and animals. PMID:23034353

A new zero-inflated negative binomial methodology for latent category identification.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; DeSarbo, Wayne S

2013-04-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic example and a consumer psychology study involving categories of restaurant brands illustrate how the application of the proposed methodology to the new sorting task can account for a variety of categorization phenomena including multiple category memberships and for heterogeneity through individual differences in the saliency of latent category structures.

The dynamics of physical and mental health in the older population.

PubMed

Ohrnberger, Julius; Fichera, Eleonora; Sutton, Matt

2017-06-01

Mental and physical aspects are both integral to health but little is known about the dynamic relationship between them. We consider the dynamic relationship between mental and physical health using a sample of 11,203 individuals in six waves (2002-2013) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We estimate conditional linear and non-linear random-effects regression models to identify the effects of past physical health, measured by Activities of Daily Living (ADL), and past mental health, measured by the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, on both present physical and mental health. We find that both mental and physical health are moderately state-dependent. Better past mental health increases present physical health significantly. Better past physical health has a larger effect on present mental health. Past mental health has stronger effects on present physical health than physical activity or education. It explains 2.0% of the unobserved heterogeneity in physical health. Past physical health has stronger effects on present mental health than health investments, income or education. It explains 0.4% of the unobserved heterogeneity in mental health. These cross-effects suggest that health policies aimed at specific aspects of health should consider potential spill-over effects.

Cooperation and heterogeneity of the autistic mind.

PubMed

Yoshida, Wako; Dziobek, Isabel; Kliemann, Dorit; Heekeren, Hauke R; Friston, Karl J; Dolan, Ray J

2010-06-30

Individuals with autism spectrum conditions (ASCs) have a core difficulty in recursively inferring the intentions of others. The precise cognitive dysfunctions that determine the heterogeneity at the heart of this spectrum, however, remains unclear. Furthermore, it remains possible that impairment in social interaction is not a fundamental deficit but a reflection of deficits in distinct cognitive processes. To better understand heterogeneity within ASCs, we employed a game-theoretic approach to characterize unobservable computational processes implicit in social interactions. Using a social hunting game with autistic adults, we found that a selective difficulty representing the level of strategic sophistication of others, namely inferring others' mindreading strategy, specifically predicts symptom severity. In contrast, a reduced ability in iterative planning was predicted by overall intellectual level. Our findings provide the first quantitative approach that can reveal the underlying computational dysfunctions that generate the autistic "spectrum."

Trust me, you will be in better health.

PubMed

Rocco, Lorenzo

2014-05-01

Along the pathway traced by few recent contribution that attempt to identify the causal effect of social capital on health, this paper analyzes whether individual social capital reduces the probability of experiencing 11 long-lasting and chronic diseases. The empirical problems related to reverse causation and unobserved heterogeneity are addressed by means of a procedure that exploits the within-individual variation between the timings of first occurrence of the 11 diseases considered. Estimates indicate that the probability of occurrence is on average 14-18 percent lower among individuals reporting to "trust most of the other people". This result is robust to two alternative specifications as well as the inclusion or omission of individual controls. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

PubMed

Latif, Ehsan

2014-06-01

The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Heterogeneous P-Median Problem for Categorization Based Clustering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Simon J.; Aloise, Daniel; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

2012-01-01

The p-median offers an alternative to centroid-based clustering algorithms for identifying unobserved categories. However, existing p-median formulations typically require data aggregation into a single proximity matrix, resulting in masked respondent heterogeneity. A proposed three-way formulation of the p-median problem explicitly considers…

Constructing "behavioral" comparison groups: A difference-in-difference analysis of the effect of copayment based on the patient's price elasticity.

PubMed

Lin, Chaohsin; Hsu, Shuofen

2014-12-01

It is well known that the differences-in-differences (DD) estimator is based on the assumption that in the absence of treatment, the average outcomes for the treated group and the control group will follow a common trend over time. That can be problematic, especially when the selection for the treatment is influenced by the individual's unobserved behavior correlating with the medical utilization. The aim of this study was to develop an index for controlling a patient's unobserved heterogeneous response to reform, in order to improve the comparability of treatment assignment. This study showed that a DD estimator of the reform effects can be decomposed into effects induced by moral hazard and by changes in health risk within the same treated/untreated group. This article also presented evidence that the constructed index of the price elasticity of the adjusted clinical group has good statistical properties for identifying the impact of reform. © The Author(s) 2012.

Understanding Heterogeneity in Price Elasticities in the Demand for Alcohol for Older Individuals

PubMed Central

Ayyagari, Padmaja; Deb, Partha; Fletcher, Jason; Gallo, William; Sindelar, Jody L.

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for alcohol using Health and Retirement Study data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in price responsiveness, we use finite mixture models. We recover two latent groups, one is significantly responsive to price, but the other is unresponsive. The group with greater responsiveness is disadvantaged in multiple domains, including health, financial resources, education and perhaps even planning abilities. These results have policy implications. The unresponsive group drinks more heavily, suggesting that a higher tax would fail to curb the negative alcohol-related externalities. In contrast, the more disadvantaged group is more responsive to price, thus suffering greater deadweight loss, yet this group consumes fewer drinks per day and might be less likely to impose negative externalities. PMID:22162113

Understanding heterogeneity in price elasticities in the demand for alcohol for older individuals.

PubMed

Ayyagari, Padmaja; Deb, Partha; Fletcher, Jason; Gallo, William; Sindelar, Jody L

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for alcohol using Health and Retirement Study data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in price responsiveness, we use finite mixture models. We recover two latent groups, one is significantly responsive to price, but the other is unresponsive. The group with greater responsiveness is disadvantaged in multiple domains, including health, financial resources, education and perhaps even planning abilities. These results have policy implications. The unresponsive group drinks more heavily, suggesting that a higher tax would fail to curb the negative alcohol-related externalities. In contrast, the more disadvantaged group is more responsive to price, thus suffering greater deadweight loss, yet this group consumes fewer drinks per day and might be less likely to impose negative externalities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating Causal Effects from Family Planning Health Communication Campaigns Using Panel Data: The “Your Health, Your Wealth” Campaign in Egypt

PubMed Central

Hutchinson, Paul L.; Meekers, Dominique

2012-01-01

Background Health communication campaigns – involving mass media and interpersonal communication - have long been utilized by national family planning programs to create awareness about contraceptive methods, to shift social norms related to fertility control, and to promote specific behaviors, such as the use of condoms, injectable methods or permanent sterilization. However, demonstrating the effectiveness of these campaigns is often complicated because the infeasibility of experimental designs generally yields statistically non-equivalent samples of campaign-exposed and unexposed individuals. Methods Using data from a panel survey of reproductive age women in Egypt, we estimate the effects of the multimedia health communication campaign “Your Health, Your Wealth” (“Sahatek Sarwetek”) on precursors to contraceptive use (e.g., spousal communication, birth spacing attitudes) and on modern contraceptive use. Difference-in-differences and fixed effects estimators that exploit the panel nature of the data are employed to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the sample of women who self-report recall of the messages, thereby potentially improving upon methods that make no such controls or that rely solely on cross-sectional data. Findings All of the estimators find positive effects of the “Your Health, Your Wealth” campaign on reproductive health outcomes, though the magnitudes of those effects diverge, often considerably. Difference-in-differences estimators find that exposure to the campaign increases the likelihood of spousal discussions by 14.4 percentage points (pp.) (SE = .039, p<0.001) but has no effect on contraceptive use. In contrast, the fixed effects, instrumental variables estimator, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, finds a large, statistically significant effect on modern contraceptive use (27.4 pp., SE = 0.135, p = 0.043). Conclusions The difficulties of evaluating family planning communication programs may be surmountable using panel data and analytic methods that address both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in exposure. Not controlling for such effects may lead to substantial underestimates of the effectiveness of such campaigns. PMID:23049961

Health and work in the family: Evidence from spouses' cancer diagnoses.

PubMed

Jeon, Sung-Hee; Pohl, R Vincent

2017-03-01

Using Canadian administrative data from multiple sources, we provide the first nationally representative estimates for the effect of spouses' cancer diagnoses on individuals' employment and earnings and on family income. Our identification strategy exploits unexpected health shocks and combines matching with individual fixed effects in a generalized difference-in-differences framework to control for observable and unobservable heterogeneity. While the effect of spousal health shocks on labor supply is theoretically ambiguous, we find strong evidence for a decline in employment and earnings of individuals whose spouses are diagnosed with cancer. We interpret this result as individuals reducing their labor supply to provide care to their sick spouses and to enjoy joint leisure. Family income substantially declines after spouses' cancer diagnoses, suggesting that the financial consequences of such health shocks are considerable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Good jobs, good pay, better health? The effects of job quality on health among older European workers.

PubMed

Henseke, Golo

2018-01-01

Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, this study presents new evidence on the effects of job quality on the occurrence of severe acute conditions, the level of cardiovascular risk factors, musculoskeletal disorders, mental health, functional disabilities and self-assessed health among workers aged 50+. By combining intrinsic job quality with job insecurity and pay the study maps out multiple potential pathways through which work may affect health and well-being. Levering longitudinal data and external information on early retirement ages allows for accounting of unobserved heterogeneity, selection bias and reverse causality. The empirical findings suggest that inequities in health correlate with inequities in job quality, though a substantial fraction of these associations reflect time-constant unobserved heterogeneity. Still, there is evidence for genuine protective effects of better jobs on musculoskeletal disorders, mental health and general health. The effect could contribute to a substantial number of avoidable disorders among older workers, despite relatively modest effect sizes at the level of individuals. Mental health, in particular, responds to changes in job quality. Selection bias such as the healthy worker effect does not alter the results. But the influence of job quality on health may be transitional among older workers. An in-depth analysis of health dynamics reveals no evidence for persistence.

Reporting heterogeneity in self-assessed health among elderly Europeans.

PubMed

Pfarr, Christian; Schmid, Andreas; Schneider, Udo

2012-10-05

Self-assessed health (SAH) is a frequently used measure of individuals' health status. It is also prone to reporting heterogeneity. To control for reporting heterogeneity objective measures of true health need to be included in an analysis. The topic becomes even more complex for cross-country comparisons, as many key variables tend to vary strongly across countries, influenced by cultural and institutional differences. This study aims at exploring the key drivers for reporting heterogeneity in SAH in an international context. To this end, country specific effects are accounted for and the objective health measure is concretized, distinguishing effects of mental and physical health conditions. We use panel data from the SHARE-project which provides a rich dataset on the elderly European population. To obtain distinct indicators for physical and mental health conditions two indices are constructed. Finally, to identify potential reporting heterogeneity in SAH a generalized ordered probit model is estimated. We find evidence that in addition to health behaviour, health care utilization, mental and physical health condition as well as country characteristics affect reporting behaviour. We conclude that observed and unobserved heterogeneity play an important role when analysing SAH and have to be taken into account.

Managerial performance and cost efficiency of Japanese local public hospitals: a latent class stochastic frontier model.

PubMed

Besstremyannaya, Galina

2011-09-01

The paper explores the link between managerial performance and cost efficiency of 617 Japanese general local public hospitals in 1999-2007. Treating managerial performance as unobservable heterogeneity, the paper employs a panel data stochastic cost frontier model with latent classes. Financial parameters associated with better managerial performance are found to be positively significant in explaining the probability of belonging to the more efficient latent class. The analysis of latent class membership was consistent with the conjecture that unobservable technological heterogeneity reflected in the existence of the latent classes is related to managerial performance. The findings may support the cause for raising efficiency of Japanese local public hospitals by enhancing the quality of management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exploring extensions to multi-state models with multiple unobservable states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Many biological systems include a portion of the target population that is unobservable during certain life history stages. Transition to and from an unobservable state may be of primary interest in many ecological studies and such movements are easily incorporated into multi-state models. Several authors have investigated properties of open-population multi-state mark-recapture models with unobservable states, and determined the scope and constraints under which parameters are identifiable (or, conversely, are redundant), but only in the context of a single observable and a single unobservable state (Schmidt et al. 2002; Kendall and Nichols 2002; Schaub et al. 2004; Kendall 2004). Some of these constraints can be relaxed if data are collected under a version of the robust design (Kendall and Bjorkland 2001; Kendall and Nichols 2002; Kendall 2004; Bailey et al. 2004), which entails >1 capture period per primary period of interest (e.g., 2 sampling periods within a breeding season). The critical assumption shared by all versions of the robust design is that the state of the individual (e.g. observable or unobservable) remains static for the duration of the primary period (Kendall 2004). In this paper, we extend previous work by relaxing this assumption to allow movement among observable states within primary periods while maintaining static observable or unobservable states. Stated otherwise, both demographic and geographic closure assumptions are relaxed, but all individuals are either observable or unobservable within primary periods. Within these primary periods transitions are possible among multiple observable states, but transitions are not allowed among the corresponding unobservable states. Our motivation for this work is exploring potential differences in population parameters for pond-breeding amphibians, where the quality of habitat surrounding the pond is not spatially uniform. The scenario is an example of a more general case where individuals move between habitats both during the breeding season (within primary periods; transitions among observable states only) and during the non-breeding season (between primary periods; transitions between observable and unobservable states). Presumably, habitat quality affects demographic parameters (e.g. survival and breeding probabilities). Using this model we are able to test this prediction for amphibians and determine if individuals move to more favorable habitats to increase survival and breeding probabilities.

The Motherhood Wage Penalty Revisited: Experience, Heterogeneity, Work Effort, and Work-Schedule Flexibility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Deborah J.; Binder, Melissa; Krause, Kate

2003-01-01

Controlling for human capital inputs and unobserved heterogeneity explained 55-57% of the wage gap between mothers and nonmothers. Mothers faced the highest wage penalty at return to work. High school graduates suffered more prolonged, severe losses than women with lower or higher attainment. Their jobs were less likely to offer flexibility needed…

ESTIMATING PERSON-CENTERED TREATMENT (PeT) EFFECTS USING INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: AN APPLICATION TO EVALUATING PROSTATE CANCER TREATMENTS

PubMed Central

BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

SUMMARY This paper builds on the methods of local instrumental variables developed by Heckman and Vytlacil (1999, 2001, 2005) to estimate person-centered treatment (PeT) effects that are conditioned on the person’s observed characteristics and averaged over the potential conditional distribution of unobserved characteristics that lead them to their observed treatment choices. PeT effects are more individualized than conditional treatment effects from a randomized setting with the same observed characteristics. PeT effects can be easily aggregated to construct any of the mean treatment effect parameters and, more importantly, are well suited to comprehend individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity. The paper presents the theory behind PeT effects, and applies it to study the variation in individual-level comparative effects of prostate cancer treatments on overall survival and costs. PMID:25620844

Morbid obesity and the transition from welfare to work.

PubMed

Cawley, John; Danziger, Sheldon

2005-01-01

This paper utilizes a rich longitudinal data set--the Women's Employment Study (WES)--to investigate whether obesity, which is common among women of low socioeconomic status, is a barrier to employment and earnings for current and former welfare recipients. We find that former welfare recipients who are both White and morbidly obese have been less successful in transitioning from welfare to work. These women are less likely to work at any survey wave, spend a greater percentage of months between waves receiving cash welfare, and have lower monthly earnings at each wave. The magnitude of the difference in labor market outcomes between the morbidly obese and those who are less heavy is in some cases similar in magnitude to the differences in these labor market outcomes between high school dropouts and graduates. In contrast, we find no such labor market differences associated with morbid obesity for African-American respondents. This paper documents the relationship between weight and labor market outcomes for the first time among the welfare population. In addition, it investigates whether the correlation for White females is due to unobserved heterogeneity. We find that after controlling for individual fixed effects, the point estimate of the correlation of morbid obesity and each of the labor market outcomes falls considerably and is no longer statistically significant. These results are consistent with unobserved heterogeneity causing the correlation between morbid obesity and labor market outcomes. Findings are similar after controlling for the respondent's mental and physical health.

The effect of same-sex marriage laws on different-sex marriage: evidence from the Netherlands.

PubMed

Trandafir, Mircea

2014-02-01

It has long been argued that the legalization of same-sex marriage would have a negative impact on marriage. In this article, I examine how different-sex marriage in the Netherlands was affected by the enactment of two laws: a 1998 law that provided all couples with an institution almost identical to marriage (a "registered partnership") and a 2001 law that legalized same-sex marriage for the first time in the world. I first construct a synthetic control for the Netherlands using OECD data for the period 1988-2005 and find that neither law had significant effects on either the overall or different-sex marriage rate. I next construct a unique individual-level data set covering the period 1995-2005 by combining the Dutch Labor Force Survey and official municipal records. The estimates from a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for the first-marriage decision confirm the findings in the aggregate analysis. The effects of the two laws are heterogeneous, with presumably more-liberal individuals (as defined by their residence or ethnicity) marrying less after passage of both laws and potentially more-conservative individuals marrying more after passage of each law.

A Dimensionally Reduced Clustering Methodology for Heterogeneous Occupational Medicine Data Mining.

PubMed

Saâdaoui, Foued; Bertrand, Pierre R; Boudet, Gil; Rouffiac, Karine; Dutheil, Frédéric; Chamoux, Alain

2015-10-01

Clustering is a set of techniques of the statistical learning aimed at finding structures of heterogeneous partitions grouping homogenous data called clusters. There are several fields in which clustering was successfully applied, such as medicine, biology, finance, economics, etc. In this paper, we introduce the notion of clustering in multifactorial data analysis problems. A case study is conducted for an occupational medicine problem with the purpose of analyzing patterns in a population of 813 individuals. To reduce the data set dimensionality, we base our approach on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which is the statistical tool most commonly used in factorial analysis. However, the problems in nature, especially in medicine, are often based on heterogeneous-type qualitative-quantitative measurements, whereas PCA only processes quantitative ones. Besides, qualitative data are originally unobservable quantitative responses that are usually binary-coded. Hence, we propose a new set of strategies allowing to simultaneously handle quantitative and qualitative data. The principle of this approach is to perform a projection of the qualitative variables on the subspaces spanned by quantitative ones. Subsequently, an optimal model is allocated to the resulting PCA-regressed subspaces.

Why do some people do "more" to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations.

PubMed

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.

The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Gupta, Sumedha

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes the interplay between early-life conditions and marital status, as determinants of adult mortality. We use individual data from Dutch registers (years 1815-2000), combined with business cycle conditions in childhood as indicators of early-life conditions. The empirical analysis estimates bivariate duration models of marriage and mortality, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that conditions around birth and school going ages are important for marriage and mortality. Men typically enjoy a protective effect of marriage, whereas women suffer during childbearing ages. However, having been born under favorable economic conditions reduces female mortality during childbearing ages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry G; Achia, Thomas N O

2015-10-01

Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Estimating correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of heterogeneity.

PubMed

Gao, Feng; Philip Miller, J; Xiong, Chengjie; Luo, Jingqin; Beiser, Julia A; Chen, Ling; Gordon, Mae O

2017-08-17

Estimating correlation coefficients among outcomes is one of the most important analytical tasks in epidemiological and clinical research. Availability of multivariate longitudinal data presents a unique opportunity to assess joint evolution of outcomes over time. Bivariate linear mixed model (BLMM) provides a versatile tool with regard to assessing correlation. However, BLMMs often assume that all individuals are drawn from a single homogenous population where the individual trajectories are distributed smoothly around population average. Using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and visual acuity (VA) from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), we demonstrated strategies to better understand the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of potential heterogeneity. Conditional correlation (i.e., marginal correlation given random effects) was calculated to describe how the association between longitudinal outcomes evolved over time within specific subpopulation. The impact of heterogeneity on correlation was also assessed by simulated data. There was a significant positive correlation in both random intercepts (ρ = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.121-0.420) and random slopes (ρ = 0.579, 95% CI: 0.349-0.810) between longitudinal MD and VA, and the strength of correlation constantly increased over time. However, conditional correlation and simulation studies revealed that the correlation was induced primarily by participants with rapid deteriorating MD who only accounted for a small fraction of total samples. Conditional correlation given random effects provides a robust estimate to describe the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (NCT00000125).

Stability of children's insurance coverage and implications for access to care: evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation.

PubMed

Buchmueller, Thomas; Orzol, Sean M; Shore-Sheppard, Lara

2014-06-01

Even as the number of children with health insurance has increased, coverage transitions--movement into and out of coverage and between public and private insurance--have become more common. Using data from 1996 to 2005, we examine whether insurance instability has implications for access to primary care. Because unobserved factors related to parental behavior and child health may affect both the stability of coverage and utilization, we estimate the relationship between insurance and the probability that a child has at least one physician visit per year using a model that includes child fixed effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Although we find that unobserved heterogeneity is an important factor influencing cross-sectional correlations, conditioning on child fixed effects we find a statistically and economically significant relationship between insurance coverage stability and access to care. Children who have part-year public or private insurance are more likely to have at least one doctor's visit than children who are uninsured for a full year, but less likely than children with full-year coverage. We find comparable effects for public and private insurance. Although cross-sectional analyses suggest that transitions directly between public and private insurance are associated with lower rates of utilization, the evidence of such an effect is much weaker when we condition on child fixed effects.

Marriage duration and divorce: the seven-year itch or a lifelong itch?

PubMed

Kulu, Hill

2014-06-01

Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a "seven-year itch," while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.

Health and Wealth of Elderly Couples: Causality Tests Using Dynamic Panel Data Models*

PubMed Central

Michaud, Pierre-Carl; van Soest, Arthur

2010-01-01

A positive relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and health, the “health-wealth gradient”, is repeatedly found in many industrialized countries. This study analyzes competing explanations for this gradient: causal effects from health to wealth (health causation) and causal effects from wealth to health (wealth or social causation). Using six biennial waves of couples aged 51–61 in 1992 from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, we test for causality in panel data models incorporating unobserved heterogeneity and a lag structure supported by specification tests. In contrast to tests relying on models with only first order lags or without unobserved heterogeneity, these tests provide no evidence of causal wealth health effects. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of causal effects from both spouses’ health on household wealth. We also find an effect of the husband’s health on the wife’s mental health, but no other effects from one spouse’s health to health of the other spouse. PMID:18513809

Persistence of physical activity in middle age: a nonlinear dynamic panel approach.

PubMed

Kumagai, Narimasa; Ogura, Seiritsu

2014-09-01

No prior investigation has considered the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity on the relationship between regular physical activity (RPA) and latent health stock (LHS). Accounting for state dependence corrects the possible overestimation of the impact of socioeconomic factors. We estimated the degree of the state dependence of RPA and LHS among middle-aged Japanese workers. The 5 years' longitudinal data used in this study were taken from the Longitudinal Survey of Middle and Elderly Persons. Individual heterogeneity was found for both RPA and LHS, and the dynamic random-effects probit model provided the best specification. A smoking habit, low educational attainment, longer work hours, and longer commuting time had negative effects on RPA participation. RPA had positive effects on LHS, taking into consideration the possibility of confounding with other lifestyle variables. The degree of state dependence of LHS was positive and significant. Increasing the intensity of RPA had positive effects on LHS and caused individuals with RPA to exhibit greater persistence of LHS compared to individuals without RPA. This result implies that policy interventions that promote RPA, such as smoking cessation, have lasting consequences. We concluded that smoking cessation is an important health policy to increase both the participation in RPA and LHS.

Neighbourhood effects on educational attainment of adolescents, buffered by personality and educational commitment.

PubMed

Nieuwenhuis, Jaap; Hooimeijer, Pieter; Meeus, Wim

2015-03-01

Research has repeatedly shown that neighbourhood disadvantage negatively influences individual educational outcomes. However, the great variation in outcomes indicates substantial unobserved heterogeneity. Looking at the rates of obtaining a basic educational qualification, the hypothesis is that individual traits of adolescents can buffer neighbourhood effects. First, adolescents with a more resilient personality may be better able to cope with neighbourhood adversity. And second, educational commitments might buffer adolescents from negative neighbourhood influences. These hypotheses are tested employing survival analysis, using six wave panel data, containing information on ten years of adolescents' lives. The results show that resilients experience no negative influence of neighbourhood disadvantage, while both undercontrollers and overcontrollers do. And, the stronger adolescents' educational commitments, the less they experience the negative effect of neighbourhood adversity. In sum, neighbourhood effects are found, but not for everybody. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Zero-truncated panel Poisson mixture models: Estimating the impact on tourism benefits in Fukushima Prefecture.

PubMed

Narukawa, Masaki; Nohara, Katsuhito

2018-04-01

This study proposes an estimation approach to panel count data, truncated at zero, in order to apply a contingent behavior travel cost method to revealed and stated preference data collected via a web-based survey. We develop zero-truncated panel Poisson mixture models by focusing on respondents who visited a site. In addition, we introduce an inverse Gaussian distribution to unobserved individual heterogeneity as an alternative to a popular gamma distribution, making it possible to capture effectively the long tail typically observed in trip data. We apply the proposed method to estimate the impact on tourism benefits in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant No. 1 accident. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding observed and unobserved health care access and utilization disparities among US Latino adults.

PubMed

Vargas Bustamante, Arturo; Fang, Hai; Rizzo, John A; Ortega, Alexander N

2009-10-01

This study hypothesizes that differences in health care access and utilization exist across Latino adults (>18 years), with U.S. Latino adults of Mexican ancestry demonstrating the worst patterns of access and utilization. The analyses use the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 1999 to 2007 (N = 33,908). The authors first estimate the disparities in health care access and utilization among different categories of Latinos. They also implement Blinder-Oaxaca techniques to decompose disparities into observed and unobserved components, comparing Latinos of Mexican ancestry with non-Mexican Latinos. Latinos of Mexican ancestry consistently demonstrate lower health care access and utilization patterns than non-Mexican Latinos. Health insurance and region of residence were the most important factors that explained observable differences. In contrast, language and citizenship status were relatively unimportant. Although a significant share of these disparities may be explained by observed characteristics, disparities because of unobserved heterogeneity among the different Latino cohorts are also considerable.

BENCH-SCALE VISUALIZATION OF DNAPL REMEDIATION PROCESSES IN ANALOG HETEROGENEOUS AQUIFERS: SURFACTANT FLOODS, AND IN SITU OXIDATION USING PERMANGANATE

EPA Science Inventory

We have conducted well-controlled DNAPL remediation experiments using surfactants (Aerosol MA and Tween 80) to increase solubility and an oxidant (permanganate) to chemically degrade the DNAPL. Photographs and digital image analysis illustrate previously unobserved interactions b...

Estimation and Model Selection for Finite Mixtures of Latent Interaction Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Jui-Chen

2011-01-01

Latent interaction models and mixture models have received considerable attention in social science research recently, but little is known about how to handle if unobserved population heterogeneity exists in the endogenous latent variables of the nonlinear structural equation models. The current study estimates a mixture of latent interaction…

Fraternity Membership & Frequent Drinking. NBER Working Paper No. 16291

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSimone, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Reinforcing earlier findings from other data, college senior fraternity/sorority members are more likely to consume alcohol frequently. Large reductions in estimates upon controlling for time spent partying, and to a lesser extent cigarette use and intramural sports involvement, suggest considerable unobserved heterogeneity in the relationship.…

Why Do Some People Do “More” to Mitigate Climate Change than Others? Exploring Heterogeneity in Psycho-Social Associations

PubMed Central

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. PMID:25191841

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

PubMed

Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2017-12-01

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health and Wages: Panel Data Estimates Considering Selection and Endogeneity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackle, Robert; Himmler, Oliver

2010-01-01

This paper complements previous studies on the effects of health on wages by addressing the problems of unobserved heterogeneity, sample selection, and endogeneity in one comprehensive framework. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we find the health variable to suffer from measurement error and a number of tests provide…

Water system unreliability and diarrhea incidence among children in Guatemala.

PubMed

Trudeau, Jennifer; Aksan, Anna-Maria; Vásquez, William F

2018-03-01

This article examines the effect of water system unreliability on diarrhea incidence among children aged 0-5 in Guatemala. We use secondary data from a nationally representative sample of 7579 children to estimate the effects of uninterrupted and interrupted water services on diarrhea incidence. The national scope of this study imposes some methodological challenges due to unobserved geographical heterogeneity. To address this issue, we estimate mixed-effects logit models that control for unobserved heterogeneity by estimating random effects of selected covariates that can vary across geographical areas (i.e. water system reliability). Compared to children without access to piped water, children with uninterrupted water services have a lower probability of diarrhea incidence by approximately 33 percentage points. Conversely, there is no differential effect between children without access and those with at least one day of service interruptions in the previous month. Results also confirm negative effects of age, female gender, spanish language, and garbage disposal on diarrhea incidence. Public health benefits of piped water are realized through uninterrupted provision of service, not merely access. Policy implications are discussed.

Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

2004-01-01

Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

Parental income and the fruits of labor: Variability in homework efficacy in secondary school.

PubMed

Daw, Jonathan

2012-09-01

Research in the sociology of education has shown that noncognitive traits are important predictors of educational outcomes and a mechanism of the intergenerational transmission of status. However, previous research on this topic typically posits that there is a constant effect of these traits with variable prevalences of these traits by socioeconomic status. Using time spent on homework as an example, I analyze income-based heterogeneity in homework efficacy, defined as the individual effect of study time on academic achievement, using a national U.S. probability sample of secondary students. Higher income students gain more knowledge from their homework time than their counterparts in all grades and all subjects except history, with greater group differences for math than for science and reading. These results are confirmed by models accounting for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in the 8th-10th, but not 10th-12th, grade windows. These results imply that increases in the amount of homework assigned may increase the socioeconomic achievement gap in math, science, and reading in secondary school.

Parental income and the fruits of labor: Variability in homework efficacy in secondary school

PubMed Central

Daw, Jonathan

2013-01-01

Research in the sociology of education has shown that noncognitive traits are important predictors of educational outcomes and a mechanism of the intergenerational transmission of status. However, previous research on this topic typically posits that there is a constant effect of these traits with variable prevalences of these traits by socioeconomic status. Using time spent on homework as an example, I analyze income-based heterogeneity in homework efficacy, defined as the individual effect of study time on academic achievement, using a national U.S. probability sample of secondary students. Higher income students gain more knowledge from their homework time than their counterparts in all grades and all subjects except history, with greater group differences for math than for science and reading. These results are confirmed by models accounting for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in the 8th–10th, but not 10th–12th, grade windows. These results imply that increases in the amount of homework assigned may increase the socioeconomic achievement gap in math, science, and reading in secondary school. PMID:23704804

Health Selection and the Process of Social Stratification: The Effect of Childhood Health on Socioeconomic Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haas, Steven A.

2006-01-01

This study investigates whether childhood health acts as a mechanism through which socioeconomic status is transferred across generations. The study uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to track siblings and to estimate fixed-effects models that account for unobserved heterogeneity at the family level. The results demonstrate that…

What You Can--and Can't--Do with Three-Wave Panel Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaisey, Stephen; Miles, Andrew

2017-01-01

The recent change in the general social survey (GSS) to a rotating panel design is a landmark development for social scientists. Sociological methodologists have argued that fixed-effects (FE) models are generally the best starting point for analyzing panel data because they allow analysts to control for unobserved time-constant heterogeneity. We…

The Impact of Employment during School on College Student Academic Performance. NBER Working Paper No. 14006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSimone, Jeffrey S.

2008-01-01

This paper estimates the effect of paid employment on grades of full-time, four-year students from four nationally representative cross sections of the Harvard College Alcohol Study administered during 1993-2001. The relationship could be causal in either direction and is likely contaminated by unobserved heterogeneity. Two-stage GMM regressions…

Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bajari, Patrick; Benkard, C. Lanier

2005-01-01

We reconsider the identification and estimation of Gorman-Lancaster-style hedonic models of demand for differentiated products in the spirit of Sherwin Rosen. We generalize Rosen's first stage to account for product characteristics that are not observed and to allow the hedonic pricing function to have a general nonseparable form. We take an…

Relative deprivation and sickness absence in Sweden.

PubMed

Helgertz, Jonas; Hess, Wolfgang; Scott, Kirk

2013-08-29

A high prevalence of sickness absence in many countries, at a substantial societal cost, underlines the importance to understand its determining mechanisms. This study focuses on the link between relative deprivation and the probability of sickness absence. 184,000 men and women in Sweden were followed between 1982 and 2001. The sample consists of working individuals between the ages of 19 and 65. The outcome is defined as experiencing more than 14 days of sickness absence during a year. Based on the complete Swedish population, an individual's degree of relative deprivation is measured through income compared to individuals of the same age, sex, educational level and type. In accounting for the possibility that sickness absence and socioeconomic status are determined by common factors, discrete-time duration models were estimated, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity through random effects. The results confirm that the failure to account for the dynamics of the individual's career biases the influence from socioeconomic characteristics. Results consistently suggest a major influence from relative deprivation, with a consistently lower risk of sickness absence among the highly educated. Altering individual's health behavior through education appears more efficient in reducing the reliance on sickness absence, rather than redistributive policies.

Spatial variation in attributable risks.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2015-01-01

The attributable risk (AR) measures the contribution of a particular risk factor to a disease, and allows estimation of disease rates specific to that risk. While previous studies consider variability in ARs over demographic categories, this paper considers the extent of spatial variability in ARs estimated from multilevel data with confounders both at individual and geographic levels. A case study considers the AR for diabetes in relation to elevated BMI, and area rates for diabetes attributable to excess weight. Contextual adjustment includes known area variables, and unobserved spatially clustered influences, while spatial heterogeneity (effect modification) is considered in terms of varying effects of elevated BMI by neighbourhood deprivation category. The application is to patient register data in London, with clear evidence of spatial variation in ARs, and in small area diabetes rates attributable to excess weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reassessing the Link Between Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Instability

PubMed Central

REINHOLD, STEFFEN

2010-01-01

Premarital cohabitation has been found to be positively correlated with the likelihood of marital dissolution in the United States. To reassess this link, I estimate proportional hazard models of marital dissolution for first marriages by using pooled data from the 1988, 1995, and 2002 surveys of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). These results suggest that the positive relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital instability has weakened for more recent birth and marriage cohorts. Using multiple marital outcomes for a person to account for one source of unobserved heterogeneity, panel models suggest that cohabitation is not selective of individuals with higher risk of marital dissolution and may be a stabilizing factor for higher-order marriages. Further research with more recent data is needed to assess whether these results are statistical artifacts caused by data weaknesses in the NSFG. PMID:20879685

Who Is Overeducated and Why? Probit and Dynamic Mixed Multinomial Logit Analyses of Vertical Mismatch in East and West Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boll, Christina; Leppin, Julian Sebastian; Schömann, Klaus

2016-01-01

Overeducation potentially signals a productivity loss. With Socio-Economic Panel data from 1984 to 2011 we identify drivers of educational mismatch for East and West medium and highly educated Germans. Addressing measurement error, state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, we run dynamic mixed multinomial logit models for three different…

Heterogeneity in the Effect of Common Shocks on Healthcare Expenditure Growth.

PubMed

Hauck, Katharina; Zhang, Xiaohui

2016-09-01

Healthcare expenditure growth is affected by important unobserved common shocks such as technological innovation, changes in sociological factors, shifts in preferences, and the epidemiology of diseases. While common factors impact in principle all countries, their effect is likely to differ across countries. To allow for unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of common shocks, we estimate a panel data model of healthcare expenditure growth in 34 OECD countries over the years 1980 to 2012, where the usual fixed or random effects are replaced by a multifactor error structure. We address model uncertainty with Bayesian model averaging, to identify a small set of robust expenditure drivers from 43 potential candidates. We establish 16 significant drivers of healthcare expenditure growth, including growth in GDP per capita and in insurance premiums, changes in financing arrangements and some institutional characteristics, expenditures on pharmaceuticals, population ageing, costs of health administration, and inpatient care. Our approach allows us to provide robust evidence to policy makers on the drivers that were most strongly associated with the growth in healthcare expenditures over the past 32 years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Injury severity analysis of commercially-licensed drivers in single-vehicle crashes: Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and age group differences.

PubMed

Osman, Mohamed; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Paleti, Rajesh

2018-05-18

This study analyzes the injury severity of commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes. Considering the discrete ordinal nature of injury severity data, the ordered response modeling framework was adopted. The moderating effect of driver's age on all other factors was examined by segmenting the parameters by driver's age group. Additional effects of the different drivers' age groups are taken into consideration through interaction terms. Unobserved heterogeneity of the different covariates was investigated using the Mixed Generalized Ordered Response Probit (MGORP) model. The empirical analysis was conducted using four years of the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data that included 6247 commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes in the state of Minnesota. The MGORP model elasticity effects indicate that key factors that increase the likelihood of severe crashes for commercially-licensed drivers across all age groups include: lack of seatbelt usage, collision with a fixed object, speeding, vehicle age of 11 years or more, wind, night time, weekday, and female drivers. Also, the effects of several covariates were found to vary across different age groups. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Obesity and fast food in urban markets: a new approach using geo-referenced micro data.

PubMed

Chen, Susan Elizabeth; Florax, Raymond J; Snyder, Samantha D

2013-07-01

This paper presents a new method of assessing the relationship between features of the built environment and obesity, particularly in urban areas. Our empirical application combines georeferenced data on the location of fast-food restaurants with data about personal health, behavioral, and neighborhood characteristics. We define a 'local food environment' for every individual utilizing buffers around a person's home address. Individual food landscapes are potentially endogenous because of spatial sorting of the population and food outlets, and the body mass index (BMI) values for individuals living close to each other are likely to be spatially correlated because of observed and unobserved individual and neighborhood effects. The potential biases associated with endogeneity and spatial correlation are handled using spatial econometric estimation techniques. Our application provides quantitative estimates of the effect of proximity to fast-food restaurants on obesity in an urban food market. We also present estimates of a policy simulation that focuses on reducing the density of fast-food restaurants in urban areas. In the simulations, we account for spatial heterogeneity in both the policy instruments and individual neighborhoods and find a small effect for the hypothesized relationships between individual BMI values and the density of fast-food restaurants. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the heterogeneity of fluorescence lifetime of room temperature ionic liquids: onset of a journey for exploring red emitting dyes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Anup; Chatterjee, Tanmay; Mandal, Prasun K

2012-06-25

An excitation and emission wavelength dependent non-exponential fluorescence decay behaviour of room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) has been noted. Average fluorescence lifetimes have been found to vary by a factor of three or more. Red emitting dyes dissolved in RTILs are found to follow hitherto unobserved single exponential fluorescence decay behaviour.

Structural Estimation of Family Labor Supply with Taxes: Estimating a Continuous Hours Model Using a Direct Utility Specification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heim, Bradley T.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new method for estimating family labor supply in the presence of taxes. This method accounts for continuous hours choices, measurement error, unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for work, the nonlinear form of the tax code, and fixed costs of work in one comprehensive specification. Estimated on data from the 2001 PSID, the…

High School Dropouts and Sexually Transmitted Infections

PubMed Central

Anderson, D. Mark; Pörtner, Claus C.

2015-01-01

People who drop out of high school fare worse in many aspects of life. We analyze the relationship between dropping out of high school and the probability of contracting a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Previous studies on the relationship between dropout status and sexual outcomes have not empirically addressed unobserved heterogeneity at the individual level. Using fixed effects estimators, we find evidence supporting a positive relationship between dropping out of high school and the risk of contracting an STI for females. Furthermore, we present evidence that illustrates differences between the romantic partners of dropouts versus enrolled students. These differences suggest that female dropouts may be more susceptible to contracting STIs because they partner with significantly different types of people than non-dropouts. Our results point to a previously undocumented benefit of encouraging those at risk of dropping out to stay in school longer. PMID:25705058

The heterogeneous effects of urbanization and income inequality on CO2 emissions in BRICS economies: evidence from panel quantile regression.

PubMed

Zhu, Huiming; Xia, Hang; Guo, Yawei; Peng, Cheng

2018-04-12

This paper empirically examines the effects of urbanization and income inequality on CO 2 emissions in the BRICS economies (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the periods 1994-2013. The method we used is the panel quantile regression, which takes into account the unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that urbanization has a significant and negative impact on carbon emissions, except in the 80 th , 90 th , and 95 th quantiles. We also quantitatively investigate the direct and indirect effect of urbanization on carbon emissions, and the results show that we may underestimate urbanization's effect on carbon emissions if we ignore its indirect effect. In addition, in middle- and high-emission countries, income inequality has a significant and positive impact on carbon emissions. The results of our study indicate that in the BRICS economies, there is an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) between the GDP per capita and carbon emissions. The conclusions of this study have important policy implications for policymakers. Policymakers should try to narrow the income gap between the rich and the poor to improve environmental quality; the BRICS economies can speed up urbanization to reduce carbon emissions, but they must improve energy efficiency and use clean energy to the greatest extent in the process.

Weight and earnings among childbearing women in Metropolitan Cebu, Philippines (1983-2002).

PubMed

Colchero, M Arantxa; Bishai, David

2012-07-01

We estimated the relationship between weight status and earnings among women participating in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Surveys between 1983 and 2002 conducted in Cebu, Philippines. Women working for pay were selected for the analysis. We used fixed effects estimation to account for unobserved time invariant characteristics related to weight. After correcting for potential bias due to unobserved heterogeneity, our results suggest that the earnings of obese or overweight women in Cebu (Philippines) were not less than women of normal weight. The relation between earnings and weight exists only among self-employed women or women working in more than one type of activity. No discrimination was found among women working for wages or per piece rate. In contrast, among self-employed and women working in more than one type of activity we found that underweight women earn less than do those with normal weight. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An artificial network model for estimating the network structure underlying partially observed neuronal signals.

PubMed

Komatsu, Misako; Namikawa, Jun; Chao, Zenas C; Nagasaka, Yasuo; Fujii, Naotaka; Nakamura, Kiyohiko; Tani, Jun

2014-01-01

Many previous studies have proposed methods for quantifying neuronal interactions. However, these methods evaluated the interactions between recorded signals in an isolated network. In this study, we present a novel approach for estimating interactions between observed neuronal signals by theorizing that those signals are observed from only a part of the network that also includes unobserved structures. We propose a variant of the recurrent network model that consists of both observable and unobservable units. The observable units represent recorded neuronal activity, and the unobservable units are introduced to represent activity from unobserved structures in the network. The network structures are characterized by connective weights, i.e., the interaction intensities between individual units, which are estimated from recorded signals. We applied this model to multi-channel brain signals recorded from monkeys, and obtained robust network structures with physiological relevance. Furthermore, the network exhibited common features that portrayed cortical dynamics as inversely correlated interactions between excitatory and inhibitory populations of neurons, which are consistent with the previous view of cortical local circuits. Our results suggest that the novel concept of incorporating an unobserved structure into network estimations has theoretical advantages and could provide insights into brain dynamics beyond what can be directly observed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

A semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model for analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Ye, Xin; Wang, Ke; Zou, Yajie; Lord, Dominique

2018-01-01

This paper develops a semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model to analyze motor vehicle crash frequency data collected from rural multilane highway segments in California, US. Motor vehicle crash frequency on rural highway is a topic of interest in the area of transportation safety due to higher driving speeds and the resultant severity level. Unlike the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model, the semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model can accommodate an unobserved heterogeneity following a highly flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) distribution. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the SNP distribution can well mimic a large family of distributions, including normal distributions, log-gamma distributions, bimodal and trimodal distributions. Empirical estimation results show that such flexibility offered by the SNP distribution can greatly improve model precision and the overall goodness-of-fit. The semi-nonparametric distribution can provide a better understanding of crash data structure through its ability to capture potential multimodality in the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. When estimated coefficients in empirical models are compared, SNP and NB models are found to have a substantially different coefficient for the dummy variable indicating the lane width. The SNP model with better statistical performance suggests that the NB model overestimates the effect of lane width on crash frequency reduction by 83.1%.

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN THE ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY, AND NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE1

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth E.; Mare, Robert D.

2011-01-01

This paper reviews methods for analyzing both individual preferences and choices about where to live, and the implications of these choices for residential patterns. Although these methods are discussed in the context of residential choice, they can be applied more broadly to individual choices in a range of social contexts where behavior is interdependent. We review a variety of types of data on residential preferences and mobility and discuss appropriate statistical models for these data. We discuss the analysis of ranked and other types of clustered data; functional form issues; problems of unobserved heterogeneity in individuals and in neighborhoods; and strengths and weaknesses of stated preference data versus observations of actual mobility behavior. We also discuss specific problems with residential mobility data, including the treatment of one’s current location as a potential choice, how to specify the choice set of potential movers, the aggregation of units (such as dwelling units into neighborhoods) and the need to take account of variations in neighborhood size, the problem of very large choice sets and possible sampling solutions; and the link between residential mobility and patterns of neighborhood change. PMID:23476098

Acceptance of homosexuality through education? Investigating the role of education, family background and individual characteristics in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

la Roi, Chaïm; Mandemakers, Jornt J

2018-03-01

Higher educated people tend to be more accepting of homosexuality than lower educated people. This has inspired claims that education leads to a higher acceptance of homosexuality. Alternatively, the association between education and acceptance of homosexuality could be confounded by (un)observed family background and stable individual characteristics. This study investigated the association between education and acceptance of homosexuality and the role of potential confounders in a unique longitudinal sample of British siblings. Multilevel and fixed effects analyses show that both perspectives apply. A large part of the association between education and acceptance of homosexuality could be attributed to family background and observed individual characteristics (one third), as well as unobserved individual characteristics (an additional third), but the positive association remains. Findings are discussed in light of existing explanations regarding the effect of education on the acceptance of homosexuality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

PubMed

Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

2018-06-20

This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

Detecting Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Subjective Well-Being and Satisfaction in Various Domains of Life Using the REBUS-PLS Path Modelling Approach: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zanin, Luca

2013-01-01

In this article, we propose a model to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the relationship between subjective well-being and satisfaction in various domains of life using a partial least squares path modelling approach in a structural equation model framework. A drawback of these models is that they assume homogeneous behaviour over the…

Heterogeneous Effects of Birth Spacing on Neonatal Mortality Risks in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Molitoris, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract The negative relationship between birth interval length and neonatal mortality risks is well documented, but heterogeneity in this relationship has been largely ignored. Using the Bangladesh Maternal Mortality and Health Care Survey 2010, this study investigates how the effect of birth interval length on neonatal mortality risks varies by maternal age at birth and maternal education. There is significant variation in the effect of interval length on neonatal mortality along these dimensions. Young mothers and those with little education, both of which make up a large share of the Bangladeshi population, can disproportionately benefit from longer intervals. Because these results were obtained from within‐family models, they are not due to unobservable heterogeneity between mothers. Targeting women with these characteristics may lead to significant improvements in neonatal mortality rates, but there are significant challenges in reaching them. PMID:29508949

Dynamic frailty models based on compound birth-death processes.

PubMed

Putter, Hein; van Houwelingen, Hans C

2015-07-01

Frailty models are used in survival analysis to model unobserved heterogeneity. They accommodate such heterogeneity by the inclusion of a random term, the frailty, which is assumed to multiply the hazard of a subject (individual frailty) or the hazards of all subjects in a cluster (shared frailty). Typically, the frailty term is assumed to be constant over time. This is a restrictive assumption and extensions to allow for time-varying or dynamic frailties are of interest. In this paper, we extend the auto-correlated frailty models of Henderson and Shimakura and of Fiocco, Putter and van Houwelingen, developed for longitudinal count data and discrete survival data, to continuous survival data. We present a rigorous construction of the frailty processes in continuous time based on compound birth-death processes. When the frailty processes are used as mixtures in models for survival data, we derive the marginal hazards and survival functions and the marginal bivariate survival functions and cross-ratio function. We derive distributional properties of the processes, conditional on observed data, and show how to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model using a (stochastic) expectation-maximization algorithm. The methods are applied to a publicly available data set. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Capturing Context-Related Change in Emotional Dynamics via Fixed Moderated Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Adolf, Janne K; Voelkle, Manuel C; Brose, Annette; Schmiedek, Florian

2017-01-01

Much of recent affect research relies on intensive longitudinal studies to assess daily emotional experiences. The resulting data are analyzed with dynamic models to capture regulatory processes involved in emotional functioning. Daily contexts, however, are commonly ignored. This may not only result in biased parameter estimates and wrong conclusions, but also ignores the opportunity to investigate contextual effects on emotional dynamics. With fixed moderated time series analysis, we present an approach that resolves this problem by estimating context-dependent change in dynamic parameters in single-subject time series models. The approach examines parameter changes of known shape and thus addresses the problem of observed intra-individual heterogeneity (e.g., changes in emotional dynamics due to observed changes in daily stress). In comparison to existing approaches to unobserved heterogeneity, model estimation is facilitated and different forms of change can readily be accommodated. We demonstrate the approach's viability given relatively short time series by means of a simulation study. In addition, we present an empirical application, targeting the joint dynamics of affect and stress and how these co-vary with daily events. We discuss potentials and limitations of the approach and close with an outlook on the broader implications for understanding emotional adaption and development.

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS ON OUTCOMES USING RETROSPECTIVE DATA: AN APPLICATION TO DUCTAL CARCINOMA IN SITU

PubMed Central

Gold, Heather Taffet; Sorbero, Melony E. S.; Griggs, Jennifer J.; Do, Huong T.; Dick, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

Analysis of observational cohort data is subject to bias from unobservable risk selection. We compared econometric models and treatment effectiveness estimates using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare claims data for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ. Treatment effectiveness estimates for mastectomy and breast conserving surgery (BCS) with or without radiotherapy were compared using three different models: simultaneous-equations model, discrete-time survival model with unobserved heterogeneity (frailty), and proportional hazards model. Overall trends in disease-free survival (DFS), or time to first subsequent breast event, by treatment are similar regardless of the model, with mastectomy yielding the highest DFS over 8 years of follow-up, followed by BCS with radiotherapy, and then BCS alone. Absolute rates and direction of bias varied substantially by treatment strategy. DFS was underestimated by single-equation and frailty models compared to the simultaneous-equations model and RCT results for BCS with RT and overestimated for BCS alone. PMID:21602195

Socioeconomic Status and Net Fertility during the Fertility Decline: A Comparative Analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and the United States

PubMed Central

Dribe, Martin; Hacker, J. David; Scalone, Francesco

2014-01-01

Most previous work on the historical fertility transition has been macro-oriented, using aggregate data to examine economic correlates of demographic behaviour at regional or national levels, while much less has been done using micro data, and specifically looking at behavioural differentials among social groups. In this paper we study at the impact of socioeconomic status on net fertility during the fertility transition in five Northern American and European Countries (Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the USA). We use micro-level census data in 1900, containing information on number of children by age, occupation of the mother and father, place of residence and household context. The results show highly similar patterns across countries, with the elite and upper middle classes having considerably lower net fertility early in the transition. These patterns remain also after controlling for a range of individual and community-level fertility determinants and geographical unobserved heterogeneity. PMID:24684711

Effects of Childhood and Middle-Adulthood Family Conditions on Later-Life Mortality: Evidence from the Utah Population Database, 1850-2002

PubMed Central

Mineau, Mineau P; Gilda, Garibotti; Kerber, Richard

2014-01-01

We examine how key early family circumstances affect mortality risks decades later. Early life conditions are measured by parental mortality, parental fertility (e.g., offspring sibship size, parental age at offspring birth), religious upbringing, and parental socioeconomic status. Prior to these early life conditions are familial and genetic factors that affect life-span. Accordingly, we consider the role of parental and familial longevity on adult mortality risks. We analyze the large Utah Population Database which contains a vast amount of genealogical and other vital/health data that contain full life histories of individuals and hundreds of their relatives. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we analyze sib-pair data for 12,000 sib-pairs using frailty models. We found modest effects of key childhood conditions (birth order, sibship size, parental religiosity, parental SES, and parental death in childhood). Our measures of familial aggregation of longevity were large and suggest an alternative view of early life conditions. PMID:19278766

Estimation of variance in Cox's regression model with shared gamma frailties.

PubMed

Andersen, P K; Klein, J P; Knudsen, K M; Tabanera y Palacios, R

1997-12-01

The Cox regression model with a shared frailty factor allows for unobserved heterogeneity or for statistical dependence between the observed survival times. Estimation in this model when the frailties are assumed to follow a gamma distribution is reviewed, and we address the problem of obtaining variance estimates for regression coefficients, frailty parameter, and cumulative baseline hazards using the observed nonparametric information matrix. A number of examples are given comparing this approach with fully parametric inference in models with piecewise constant baseline hazards.

Relative Deprivation and Sickness Absence in Sweden

PubMed Central

Helgertz, Jonas; Hess, Wolfgang; Scott, Kirk

2013-01-01

Background: A high prevalence of sickness absence in many countries, at a substantial societal cost, underlines the importance to understand its determining mechanisms. This study focuses on the link between relative deprivation and the probability of sickness absence. Methods: 184,000 men and women in Sweden were followed between 1982 and 2001. The sample consists of working individuals between the ages of 19 and 65. The outcome is defined as experiencing more than 14 days of sickness absence during a year. Based on the complete Swedish population, an individual’s degree of relative deprivation is measured through income compared to individuals of the same age, sex, educational level and type. In accounting for the possibility that sickness absence and socioeconomic status are determined by common factors, discrete-time duration models were estimated, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity through random effects. Results: The results confirm that the failure to account for the dynamics of the individual’s career biases the influence from socioeconomic characteristics. Results consistently suggest a major influence from relative deprivation, with a consistently lower risk of sickness absence among the highly educated. Conclusions: Altering individual’s health behavior through education appears more efficient in reducing the reliance on sickness absence, rather than redistributive policies. PMID:23996012

Does Context Matter? Literacy Disparities in Self-rated Health Using Evidence from 17 Developed Countries.

PubMed

Lee, Yeonjin

2017-05-01

The study examines whether adult literacy skills predict self-rated health status beyond educational credentials in 17 developed countries using a cross-national survey, the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). The study uses linear regression models with country-level fixed effects to predict self-rated health to account the unobserved country-level heterogeneity. A total of 73,806 respondents aged 25 to 65 were included in the analysis. Although adult literacy is positively associated with better self-rated health in general, the strength of the relationship varies across nations. The literacy-related health inequalities are less severe in countries with the higher public share of health expenditures that may better address the needs of individuals with limited cognitive abilities. Curriculum standardization also contributes to reducing the literacy gradients in health by decreasing variations in skills obtained in school across individuals with different social origins. Overall, this study reveals that promoting equity in adult literacy skills is an important way to improve a population's health. Country-level differences in the strength of the relationship between literacy and self-rated health are systematically related to between-country differences in health financing and educational systems.

Economic Contextual Factors and Child Body Mass Index. NBER Working Paper No. 15046

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Lisa M.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2009-01-01

This study examines the relationship between child weight and fast food and fruit and vegetable prices and the availability of fast food restaurants, full-service restaurants, supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores . We estimate cross-sectional and individual-level fixed effects (FE) models to account for unobserved individual-level…

A New Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Methodology for Latent Category Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Simon J.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

We introduce a new statistical procedure for the identification of unobserved categories that vary between individuals and in which objects may span multiple categories. This procedure can be used to analyze data from a proposed sorting task in which individuals may simultaneously assign objects to multiple piles. The results of a synthetic…

The role of education in the production of health: an empirical analysis of smoking behavior.

PubMed

Tenn, Steven; Herman, Douglas A; Wendling, Brett

2010-05-01

We estimate the effect of education on smoking. Our estimation strategy "differences out" the impact of unobserved characteristics correlated with education by exploiting education differences between similarly selected groups 1 year apart in their life cycle. Individuals with a given age, education, and student status in the current and previous year are compared to their counterparts born 1 year later with the same age, education, and student status in the following and current year. We find that an additional year of education does not have a causal effect on smoking. Unobserved factors correlated with education entirely explain their cross-sectional relationship.

The association between retirement and emotional well-being: does prior work-family conflict matter?

PubMed

Coursolle, Kathryn M; Sweeney, Megan M; Raymo, James M; Ho, Jeong-Hwa

2010-09-01

This study investigates whether the association between retirement and emotional well-being depends on prior experience of work-family conflict. We use data from the 1993 and 2004 waves of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to estimate linear regression models of 2 dimensions of emotional well-being-depressive symptoms and positive psychological functioning. We also use fixed effects models to investigate whether key findings persist after controlling for stable, but unobserved, characteristics of individuals. Retirement is associated with relatively fewer depressive symptoms among individuals who reported high levels of work stress interfering with family life in late midlife. We find suggestive evidence of a similar association with respect to positive psychological functioning after accounting for unobserved characteristics of individuals. Among individuals reporting high levels of family stress spillover into work life at late midlife, our results suggest that retirement tends to be associated with better emotional well-being among men than among women. Retirement may come more as a relief than as a stressor for individuals previously experiencing high levels of work demands interfering with family life. However, particularly among women, retirement may not relieve the burdens of family life stressors.

Government mandates and employer-sponsored health insurance: who is still not covered?

PubMed

Vanness, David J; Wolfe, Barbara L

2002-06-01

We characterize employer-sponsored health insurance offering strategies in light of benefit non-discrimination and minimum wage regulation when workers have heterogeneous earnings and partially unobservable demand for (and cost of) insurance. We then empirically examine how earnings and expected medical expenses are associated with low wage workers' ability to obtain insurance before and after enactment of federal benefit non-discrimination rules. We find no evidence that the non-discrimination rules helped low wage workers (especially those with high own or children's expected medical expenses) to obtain insurance.

Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity.

PubMed

Naik, Bhaven; Tung, Li-Wei; Zhao, Shanshan; Khattak, Aemal J

2016-09-01

The focus of this paper is on illustrating the feasibility of aggregating data from disparate sources to investigate the relationship between single-vehicle truck crash injury severity and detailed weather conditions. Specifically, this paper presents: (a) a methodology that combines detailed 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, and (b) an empirical investigation of the effects of weather on crash-related injury severities of single-vehicle truck crashes. Random parameters ordinal and multinomial regression models were used to investigate crash injury severity under different weather conditions, taking into account the individual unobserved heterogeneity. The adopted methodology allowed consideration of environmental, roadway, and climate-related variables in single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Results showed that wind speed, rain, humidity, and air temperature were linked with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Greater recorded wind speed added to the severity of injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes in general. Rain and warmer air temperatures were linked to more severe crash injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes while higher levels of humidity were linked to less severe injuries. Random parameters ordered logit and multinomial logit, respectively, revealed some individual heterogeneity in the data and showed that integrating comprehensive weather data with crash data provided useful insights into factors associated with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. The research provided a practical method that combined comprehensive 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, thereby providing useful insights into crash injury severity of single-vehicle trucks. Those insights are useful for future truck driver educational programs and for truck safety in different weather conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

The impact of psychological trauma on wages in post-conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina.

PubMed

Searing, Elizabeth A M; Rios-Avila, Fernando; Lecy, Jesse D

2013-11-01

In the last three decades, armed conflict has increasingly been fought among civilian populations, resulting in greater physical and mental tolls. Soldiers returning from combat with psychological trauma are now receiving medical and policy attention for reintegration into the workforce. However, there is little attention on the impacts and options available to civilians who may face similar problems achieving labor force success after exposure to war-related trauma. Using the Bosnia and Herzegovina Living Standards Measurement Survey for years 2001-2004, we study wage attainment for 7659 respondents in relation to a series of psychological trauma measures which correspond to those used in PTSD diagnosis. In standard OLS regression, all subcomponents of PTSD have a negative impact; however, once unobserved individual heterogeneity is taken into account, some of the individual elements of psychological trauma have positive impacts on wage attainment. This is one of the first studies to find evidence of Posttraumatic Growth using information beyond psychometric instruments. The impact of the PTSD condition itself is insignificant in both models, and we do not find evidence of selection bias. We determine that the traditional means of predicting wages in labor economics are relevant in a post-conflict environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A generalized nonlinear model-based mixed multinomial logit approach for crash data analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Ziqiang; Zhu, Wenbo; Ke, Ruimin; Ash, John; Wang, Yinhai; Xu, Jiuping; Xu, Xinxin

2017-02-01

The mixed multinomial logit (MNL) approach, which can account for unobserved heterogeneity, is a promising unordered model that has been employed in analyzing the effect of factors contributing to crash severity. However, its basic assumption of using a linear function to explore the relationship between the probability of crash severity and its contributing factors can be violated in reality. This paper develops a generalized nonlinear model-based mixed MNL approach which is capable of capturing non-monotonic relationships by developing nonlinear predictors for the contributing factors in the context of unobserved heterogeneity. The crash data on seven Interstate freeways in Washington between January 2011 and December 2014 are collected to develop the nonlinear predictors in the model. Thirteen contributing factors in terms of traffic characteristics, roadway geometric characteristics, and weather conditions are identified to have significant mixed (fixed or random) effects on the crash density in three crash severity levels: fatal, injury, and property damage only. The proposed model is compared with the standard mixed MNL model. The comparison results suggest a slight superiority of the new approach in terms of model fit measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (12.06 percent decrease) and Bayesian Information Criterion (9.11 percent decrease). The predicted crash densities for all three levels of crash severities of the new approach are also closer (on average) to the observations than the ones predicted by the standard mixed MNL model. Finally, the significance and impacts of the contributing factors are analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of hemoglobin in blood donors using a latent class mixed-effects transition model.

PubMed

Nasserinejad, Kazem; van Rosmalen, Joost; de Kort, Wim; Rizopoulos, Dimitris; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2016-02-20

Blood donors experience a temporary reduction in their hemoglobin (Hb) value after donation. At each visit, the Hb value is measured, and a too low Hb value leads to a deferral for donation. Because of the recovery process after each donation as well as state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, longitudinal data of Hb values of blood donors provide unique statistical challenges. To estimate the shape and duration of the recovery process and to predict future Hb values, we employed three models for the Hb value: (i) a mixed-effects models; (ii) a latent-class mixed-effects model; and (iii) a latent-class mixed-effects transition model. In each model, a flexible function was used to model the recovery process after donation. The latent classes identify groups of donors with fast or slow recovery times and donors whose recovery time increases with the number of donations. The transition effect accounts for possible state dependence in the observed data. All models were estimated in a Bayesian way, using data of new entrant donors from the Donor InSight study. Informative priors were used for parameters of the recovery process that were not identified using the observed data, based on results from the clinical literature. The results show that the latent-class mixed-effects transition model fits the data best, which illustrates the importance of modeling state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and the recovery process after donation. The estimated recovery time is much longer than the current minimum interval between donations, suggesting that an increase of this interval may be warranted. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accounting for measurement reliability to improve the quality of inference in dental microhardness research: a worked example.

PubMed

Sever, Ivan; Klaric, Eva; Tarle, Zrinka

2016-07-01

Dental microhardness experiments are influenced by unobserved factors related to the varying tooth characteristics that affect measurement reproducibility. This paper explores the appropriate analytical tools for modeling different sources of unobserved variability to reduce the biases encountered and increase the validity of microhardness studies. The enamel microhardness of human third molars was measured by Vickers diamond. The effects of five bleaching agents-10, 16, and 30 % carbamide peroxide, and 25 and 38 % hydrogen peroxide-were examined, as well as the effect of artificial saliva and amorphous calcium phosphate. To account for both between- and within-tooth heterogeneity in evaluating treatment effects, the statistical analysis was performed in the mixed-effects framework, which also included the appropriate weighting procedure to adjust for confounding. The results were compared to those of the standard ANOVA model usually applied. The weighted mixed-effects model produced the parameter estimates of different magnitude and significance than the standard ANOVA model. The results of the former model were more intuitive, with more precise estimates and better fit. Confounding could seriously bias the study outcomes, highlighting the need for more robust statistical procedures in dental research that account for the measurement reliability. The presented framework is more flexible and informative than existing analytical techniques and may improve the quality of inference in dental research. Reported results could be misleading if underlying heterogeneity of microhardness measurements is not taken into account. The confidence in treatment outcomes could be increased by applying the framework presented.

Childhood obesity among the poor in Peru: Are there implications for cognitive outcomes?

PubMed

Wisniewski, Suzanne L

2017-08-01

This paper exploits three rounds of panel data provided by the Peruvian dataset of the Young Lives study to investigate the relationship between child cognition and obesity status among the poor. Child weight status is measured by a full distribution of child weight, from severely thin to obese, using data from a z-score for body mass index and cognition is measured by the Spanish version of the Picture Peabody Vocabulary Test (PPVT). This relationship is studied at age five and age eight (school age), and disaggregated across socioeconomic factors of gender, urban/rural setting and indigenous/nonindigenous status. The initial results suggests that obese children have higher cognitive scores and that this result is driven by those who are female, non-indigenous and live in an urban region. However, after correcting for possible bias due to unobservable heterogeneity, there is little evidence of this relationship. The one exception is for a weakly significant relationship between obese female children and higher cognition, a relationship which tends to weaken between the ages of five and eight. On the other end of the weight distribution, indigenous children who are severely thin or thin have significantly lower cognitive scores, a relationship that holds after correcting for possible bias and appears to strengthen between ages of five and eight. This paper contributes to a very small set of literature on child cognition and obesity, points to the importance of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in estimation, and is the first of its kind to study this relationship in a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revealing the Intricate Effect of Collaboration on Innovation

PubMed Central

Inoue, Hiroyasu; Liu, Yang-Yu

2015-01-01

We studied the Japan and U.S. patent records of several decades to demonstrate the effect of collaboration on innovation. We found that statistically inventor teams slightly outperform solo inventors while company teams perform equally well as solo companies. By tracking the performance record of individual teams, we found that inventor teams’ performance generally degrades with more repeat collaborations. Though company teams’ performance displays strongly bursty behavior, long-term collaboration does not significantly help innovation. To systematically study the effect of repeat collaboration, we defined the repeat collaboration number of a team as the average number of collaborations over all the teammate pairs. We found that mild repeat collaboration improves the performance of Japanese inventor teams and U.S. company teams. Yet, excessive repeat collaboration does not significantly help innovation at both the inventor and company levels in both countries. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we performed a detailed regression analysis and the results were consistent with our simple observations. The presented results revealed the intricate effect of collaboration on innovation, which may also be observed in other creative projects. PMID:25799138

Revealing the intricate effect of collaboration on innovation.

PubMed

Inoue, Hiroyasu; Liu, Yang-Yu

2015-01-01

We studied the Japan and U.S. patent records of several decades to demonstrate the effect of collaboration on innovation. We found that statistically inventor teams slightly outperform solo inventors while company teams perform equally well as solo companies. By tracking the performance record of individual teams, we found that inventor teams' performance generally degrades with more repeat collaborations. Though company teams' performance displays strongly bursty behavior, long-term collaboration does not significantly help innovation. To systematically study the effect of repeat collaboration, we defined the repeat collaboration number of a team as the average number of collaborations over all the teammate pairs. We found that mild repeat collaboration improves the performance of Japanese inventor teams and U.S. company teams. Yet, excessive repeat collaboration does not significantly help innovation at both the inventor and company levels in both countries. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we performed a detailed regression analysis and the results were consistent with our simple observations. The presented results revealed the intricate effect of collaboration on innovation, which may also be observed in other creative projects.

An ontology-based personalization of health-care knowledge to support clinical decisions for chronically ill patients.

PubMed

Riaño, David; Real, Francis; López-Vallverdú, Joan Albert; Campana, Fabio; Ercolani, Sara; Mecocci, Patrizia; Annicchiarico, Roberta; Caltagirone, Carlo

2012-06-01

Chronically ill patients are complex health care cases that require the coordinated interaction of multiple professionals. A correct intervention of these sort of patients entails the accurate analysis of the conditions of each concrete patient and the adaptation of evidence-based standard intervention plans to these conditions. There are some other clinical circumstances such as wrong diagnoses, unobserved comorbidities, missing information, unobserved related diseases or prevention, whose detection depends on the capacities of deduction of the professionals involved. In this paper, we introduce an ontology for the care of chronically ill patients and implement two personalization processes and a decision support tool. The first personalization process adapts the contents of the ontology to the particularities observed in the health-care record of a given concrete patient, automatically providing a personalized ontology containing only the clinical information that is relevant for health-care professionals to manage that patient. The second personalization process uses the personalized ontology of a patient to automatically transform intervention plans describing health-care general treatments into individual intervention plans. For comorbid patients, this process concludes with the semi-automatic integration of several individual plans into a single personalized plan. Finally, the ontology is also used as the knowledge base of a decision support tool that helps health-care professionals to detect anomalous circumstances such as wrong diagnoses, unobserved comorbidities, missing information, unobserved related diseases, or preventive actions. Seven health-care centers participating in the K4CARE project, together with the group SAGESA and the Local Health System in the town of Pollenza have served as the validation platform for these two processes and tool. Health-care professionals participating in the evaluation agree about the average quality 84% (5.9/7.0) and utility 90% (6.3/7.0) of the tools and also about the correct reasoning of the decision support tool, according to clinical standards. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling unobserved sources of heterogeneity in animal abundance using a Dirichlet process prior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Mukherjee, B.; Zhang, L.; Ghosh, M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

2008-01-01

In surveys of natural populations of animals, a sampling protocol is often spatially replicated to collect a representative sample of the population. In these surveys, differences in abundance of animals among sample locations may induce spatial heterogeneity in the counts associated with a particular sampling protocol. For some species, the sources of heterogeneity in abundance may be unknown or unmeasurable, leading one to specify the variation in abundance among sample locations stochastically. However, choosing a parametric model for the distribution of unmeasured heterogeneity is potentially subject to error and can have profound effects on predictions of abundance at unsampled locations. In this article, we develop an alternative approach wherein a Dirichlet process prior is assumed for the distribution of latent abundances. This approach allows for uncertainty in model specification and for natural clustering in the distribution of abundances in a data-adaptive way. We apply this approach in an analysis of counts based on removal samples of an endangered fish species, the Okaloosa darter. Results of our data analysis and simulation studies suggest that our implementation of the Dirichlet process prior has several attractive features not shared by conventional, fully parametric alternatives. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

K(86Rb) transport heterogeneity in the low-density fraction of sickle cell anemia red blood cells.

PubMed

Etzion, Z; Lew, V L; Bookchin, R M

1996-10-01

Previous studies have suggested ion transport heterogeneity among sickle cell anemia (SS) reticulocytes that could influence their dehydration susceptibility. We examined Ca2(+)-independent K transport in the lowest density (F1), reticulocyte-rich SS cells, measuring the effects of acidification, ouabain, and bumetanide on their unidirectional K(86Rb) fluxes. Unlike those of normal red blood cells and SS discocytes, the SS-F1 K(86Rb) fluxes were highly nonlinear, with large 5-min flux components (previously unobserved) and a more gradual decline over 60 min. Analysis revealed two distinct K pools: a rapid-turnover pool in a small fraction of cells, whose major ouabain-resistant K(86Rb) transport path showed distinctive properties including inhibition by high concentrations of bumetanide (> or = 1 mM) and stimulation at pH 7.0, and another heterogeneous, relatively slow-turnover pool, in most of the F1 cells, whose main ouabain-resistant K(86Rb) path was insensitive to bumetanide but was stimulated at pH 7.0, which is consistent with heterogeneous expression of the acid-sensitive K-Cl cotransport and with both rapid and slower generation of dehydrated SS cells.

Do time-invariant confounders explain away the association between job stress and workers' mental health? Evidence from Japanese occupational panel data.

PubMed

Oshio, Takashi; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Inoue, Akiomi

2015-02-01

It is well known that job stress is negatively related to workers' mental health, but most recent studies have not controlled for unobserved time-invariant confounders. In the current study, we attempted to validate previous observations on the association between job stress and workers' mental health, by removing the effects of unobserved time-invariant confounders. We used data from three to four waves of an occupational Japanese cohort survey, focusing on 31,382 observations of 9741 individuals who participated in at least two consecutive waves. We estimated mean-centered fixed effects models to explain psychological distress in terms of the Kessler 6 (K6) scores (range: 0-24) by eight job stress indicators related to the job demands-control, effort-reward imbalance, and organizational injustice models. Mean-centered fixed effects models reduced the magnitude of the association between jobs stress and K6 scores to 44.8-54.2% of those observed from pooled ordinary least squares. However, the association remained highly significant even after controlling for unobserved time-invariant confounders for all job stress indicators. In addition, alternatively specified models showed the robustness of the results. In all, we concluded that the validity of major job stress models, which link job stress and workers' mental health, was robust, although unobserved time-invariant confounders led to an overestimation of the association. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harry Potter and the sorcerer's scope: latent scope biases in explanatory reasoning.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Sussman, Abigail B; Oppenheimer, Daniel M

2011-04-01

What makes a good explanation? We examine the function of latent scope, i.e., the number of unobserved phenomena that an explanation can account for. We show that individuals prefer narrow latent scope explanations-those that account for fewer unobserved effects-to broader explanations. In Experiments 1a-d, participants found narrow latent scope explanations to be both more satisfying and more likely. In Experiment 2 we directly manipulated base rate information and again found a preference for narrow latent scope explanations. Participants in Experiment 3 evaluated more natural explanations of unexpected observations, and again displayed a bias for narrow latent scope explanations. We conclude by considering what this novel bias tells us about how humans evaluate explanations and engage in causal reasoning.

Methods and Measures: Growth Mixture Modeling--A Method for Identifying Differences in Longitudinal Change among Unobserved Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ram, Nilam; Grimm, Kevin J.

2009-01-01

Growth mixture modeling (GMM) is a method for identifying multiple unobserved sub-populations, describing longitudinal change within each unobserved sub-population, and examining differences in change among unobserved sub-populations. We provide a practical primer that may be useful for researchers beginning to incorporate GMM analysis into their…

Directly measuring single-molecule heterogeneity using force spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Hinczewski, Michael; Thirumalai, D.

2016-01-01

One of the most intriguing results of single-molecule experiments on proteins and nucleic acids is the discovery of functional heterogeneity: the observation that complex cellular machines exhibit multiple, biologically active conformations. The structural differences between these conformations may be subtle, but each distinct state can be remarkably long-lived, with interconversions between states occurring only at macroscopic timescales, fractions of a second or longer. Although we now have proof of functional heterogeneity in a handful of systems—enzymes, motors, adhesion complexes—identifying and measuring it remains a formidable challenge. Here, we show that evidence of this phenomenon is more widespread than previously known, encoded in data collected from some of the most well-established single-molecule techniques: atomic force microscopy or optical tweezer pulling experiments. We present a theoretical procedure for analyzing distributions of rupture/unfolding forces recorded at different pulling speeds. This results in a single parameter, quantifying the degree of heterogeneity, and also leads to bounds on the equilibration and conformational interconversion timescales. Surveying 10 published datasets, we find heterogeneity in 5 of them, all with interconversion rates slower than 10 s−1. Moreover, we identify two systems where additional data at realizable pulling velocities is likely to find a theoretically predicted, but so far unobserved crossover regime between heterogeneous and nonheterogeneous behavior. The significance of this regime is that it will allow far more precise estimates of the slow conformational switching times, one of the least understood aspects of functional heterogeneity. PMID:27317744

Growth mixture modelling in families of the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Growth mixture modelling, a less explored method in genetic research, addresses unobserved heterogeneity in population samples. We applied this technique to longitudinal data of the Framingham Heart Study. We examined systolic blood pressure (BP) measures in 1060 males from 692 families and detected three subclasses, which varied significantly in their developmental trajectories over time. The first class consisted of 60 high-risk individuals with elevated BP early in life and a steep increase over time. The second group of 131 individuals displayed first normal BP, but showed a significant increase over time and reached high BP values late in their life time. The largest group of 869 individuals could be considered a normative group with normal BP on all exams. To identify genetic modulators for this phenotype, we tested 2,340 single-nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 8 for association with the class membership probabilities of our model. The probability of being in Class 1 was significantly associated with a very rare variant (rs1445404) present in only four individuals from four different families located in the coding region of the gene EYA (eyes absent homolog 1 in Drosophila) (p = 1.39 × 10-13). Mutations in EYA are known to cause brachio-oto-renal syndrome, as well as isolated renal malformations. Renal malformations could cause high BP early in life. This result awaits replication; however, it suggests that analyzing genetic data stratified for high-risk subgroups defined by a unique development over time could be useful for the detection of rare mutations in common multi-factorial diseases. PMID:20017979

Finite mixture modeling for vehicle crash data with application to hotspot identification.

PubMed

Park, Byung-Jung; Lord, Dominique; Lee, Chungwon

2014-10-01

The application of finite mixture regression models has recently gained an interest from highway safety researchers because of its considerable potential for addressing unobserved heterogeneity. Finite mixture models assume that the observations of a sample arise from two or more unobserved components with unknown proportions. Both fixed and varying weight parameter models have been shown to be useful for explaining the heterogeneity and the nature of the dispersion in crash data. Given the superior performance of the finite mixture model, this study, using observed and simulated data, investigated the relative performance of the finite mixture model and the traditional negative binomial (NB) model in terms of hotspot identification. For the observed data, rural multilane segment crash data for divided highways in California and Texas were used. The results showed that the difference measured by the percentage deviation in ranking orders was relatively small for this dataset. Nevertheless, the ranking results from the finite mixture model were considered more reliable than the NB model because of the better model specification. This finding was also supported by the simulation study which produced a high number of false positives and negatives when a mis-specified model was used for hotspot identification. Regarding an optimal threshold value for identifying hotspots, another simulation analysis indicated that there is a discrepancy between false discovery (increasing) and false negative rates (decreasing). Since the costs associated with false positives and false negatives are different, it is suggested that the selected optimal threshold value should be decided by considering the trade-offs between these two costs so that unnecessary expenses are minimized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sibling Position and Achievement. Reprint Series #239.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindert, Peter H.

Past studies linking schooling and career attainment to sibling position (family size, birth order, and spacing) are vulnerable to suspicions about omitted variables. Since they were based on cross sections of individuals from different families, they may have attributed to sibling position an influence belonging to unobserved parental attributes.…

Should I Text or Call Here? A Situation-Based Analysis of Drivers' Perceived Likelihood of Engaging in Mobile Phone Multitasking.

PubMed

Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Washington, Simon

2018-05-29

This study investigated how situational characteristics typically encountered in the transport system influence drivers' perceived likelihood of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. The impacts of mobile phone tasks, perceived environmental complexity/risk, and drivers' individual differences were evaluated as relevant individual predictors within the behavioral adaptation framework. An innovative questionnaire, which includes randomized textual and visual scenarios, was administered to collect data from a sample of 447 drivers in South East Queensland-Australia (66% females; n = 296). The likelihood of engaging in a mobile phone task across various scenarios was modeled by a random parameters ordered probit model. Results indicated that drivers who are female, are frequent users of phones for texting/answering calls, have less favorable attitudes towards safety, and are highly disinhibited were more likely to report stronger intentions of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. However, more years with a valid driving license, self-efficacy toward self-regulation in demanding traffic conditions and police enforcement, texting tasks, and demanding traffic conditions were negatively related to self-reported likelihood of mobile phone multitasking. The unobserved heterogeneity warned of riskier groups among female drivers and participants who need a lot of convincing to believe that multitasking while driving is dangerous. This research concludes that behavioral adaptation theory is a robust framework explaining self-regulation of distracted drivers. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Wage differences according to health status in France.

PubMed

Ben Halima, Mohamed Ali; Rococo, Emeline

2014-11-01

Many OECD countries have implemented anti-discrimination laws in recent decades. However, according to the annual report published in 2010 by the French High Authority for the Fight against Discrimination and for Equality, the second most commonly cited factor in discrimination claims since 2005 is a handicap or health status. The aim of this research is to estimate the level of unexplained components in the wage gap that can be attributed to wage discrimination based on health status in France in 2010 utilizing data from the Health, Healthcare and Insurance survey among 1594 individuals. Three health indicators are used: self-perceived health status, activity limitations and long-term chronic illness. To measure the wage gap according to an individual's health status, the analysis considers the endogenous selection of health status and unobserved differences in productivity. The results demonstrate that wage discrimination is experienced by individuals in poor health regardless of the health indicator utilized. The hourly wage rate among individuals with poor self-assessed health status is on average 14.2% lower than among individuals with good self-assessed health status. However, for individuals suffering from a long-term chronic illness or an activity limitation, the gap is 6.3% and 4.5%, respectively. The decomposition performed on wage differences according to health status by correcting for health status selection bias and controlling for unobserved differences in productivity indicates that the 'unexplained component' that can be attributed to wage discrimination is equal to 50%. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Peer Effect on Youth Overweight and Inactivity Using an Intervention Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinto Romani, Annette

2014-01-01

Background: Understanding peer effect is potentially important for finding ways to combat the obesity epidemic. Nevertheless, it is not clear whether a peer effect exists because of the composition of the peer group, because the group members have similar, unobserved individual characteristics, or because of an endogenous effect. Methods: This…

Introduction to Latent Class Analysis with Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porcu, Mariano; Giambona, Francesca

2017-01-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a statistical method used to group individuals (cases, units) into classes (categories) of an unobserved (latent) variable on the basis of the responses made on a set of nominal, ordinal, or continuous observed variables. In this article, we introduce LCA in order to demonstrate its usefulness to early adolescence…

Human Capital Augmentation versus the Signaling Value of MBA Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hussey, Andrew

2012-01-01

Panel data on MBA graduates is used in an attempt to empirically distinguish between human capital and signaling models of education. The existence of employment observations prior to MBA enrollment allows for the control of unobserved ability or selection into MBA programs (through the use of individual fixed effects). In addition, variation in…

Dynamic Latent Trait Models with Mixed Hidden Markov Structure for Mixed Longitudinal Outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

2016-01-01

We propose a general Bayesian joint modeling approach to model mixed longitudinal outcomes from the exponential family for taking into account any differential misclassification that may exist among categorical outcomes. Under this framework, outcomes observed without measurement error are related to latent trait variables through generalized linear mixed effect models. The misclassified outcomes are related to the latent class variables, which represent unobserved real states, using mixed hidden Markov models (MHMM). In addition to enabling the estimation of parameters in prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities, MHMMs capture cluster level heterogeneity. A transition modeling structure allows the latent trait and latent class variables to depend on observed predictors at the same time period and also on latent trait and latent class variables at previous time periods for each individual. Simulation studies are conducted to make comparisons with traditional models in order to illustrate the gains from the proposed approach. The new approach is applied to data from the Southern California Children Health Study (CHS) to jointly model questionnaire based asthma state and multiple lung function measurements in order to gain better insight about the underlying biological mechanism that governs the inter-relationship between asthma state and lung function development.

The impact of price policy on demand for alcohol in rural India.

PubMed

Subramanian, Arjunan; Kumar, Parmod

2017-10-01

Whether raising the price of addictive goods can reduce its burden is widely debated in many countries, largely due to lack of appropriate data and robust methods. Three key concerns frequently raised in the literature are: unobserved heterogeneity; omitted variables; identification problem. Addressing these concerns, using robust instrument and employing unique individual-level panel data from Indian Punjab, this paper investigates two related propositions (i) will increase in alcohol price reduce its burden (ii) since greater incomes raise the costs of inebriation, will higher incomes affect consumption of alcohol negatively. Distinct from previous studies, the key variable of interest is the budget share of alcohol that allows studying the burden of alcohol consumption on drinker's and also on other family members. Results presented show that an increase in alcohol price is likely to be regressive, especially on the bottom quartile, with a rise in the budget share of alcohol given budget constraint. This outcome is robust to different econometric specifications. Preliminary explorations suggest that higher per capita income increases the odds of quitting drinking. Results reported have wider implications for the effective design of addiction related health policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial generalized ordered response model to examine highway crash injury severity.

PubMed

Castro, Marisol; Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a flexible econometric structure for injury severity analysis at the level of individual crashes that recognizes the ordinal nature of injury severity categories, allows unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of contributing factors, as well as accommodates spatial dependencies in the injury severity levels experienced in crashes that occur close to one another in space. The modeling framework is applied to analyze the injury severity sustained in crashes occurring on highway road segments in Austin, Texas. The sample is drawn from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) crash incident files from 2009 and includes a variety of crash characteristics, highway design attributes, driver and vehicle characteristics, and environmental factors. The results from our analysis underscore the value of our proposed model for data fit purposes as well as to accurately estimate variable effects. The most important determinants of injury severity on highways, according to our results, are (1) whether any vehicle occupant is ejected, (2) whether collision type is head-on, (3) whether any vehicle involved in the crash overturned, (4) whether any vehicle occupant is unrestrained by a seat-belt, and (5) whether a commercial truck is involved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of health changes on labor supply: evidence from merged data on individual objective medical diagnosis codes and early retirement behavior.

PubMed

Christensen, Bent Jesper; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

2012-06-01

The justification bias in the estimated impact of health shocks on retirement is mitigated by using objective health measures from a large, register-based longitudinal data set including medical diagnosis codes, along with labor market status, financial, and socio-economic variables. The duration until retirement is modeled using single and competing risk specifications, observed and unobserved heterogeneity, and flexible baseline hazards. Wealth is used as a proxy for elapsed duration to mitigate the potential selection bias stemming from conditioning on initial participation. The competing risk specification distinguishes complete multiperiod routes to retirement, such as unemployment followed by early retirement. A result on comparison of coefficients across all states is offered. The empirical results indicate a strong impact of health changes on retirement and hence a large potential for public policy measures intended to retain older workers longer in the labor force. Disability responds more to health shocks than early retirement, especially to diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and musculoskeletal systems, as well as mental and behavioral disorders. Some unemployment spells followed by early retirement appear voluntary and spurred by life style diseases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of Landmine Fatalities and Injuries in the Kurdistan Region.

PubMed

Heshmati, Almas; Khayyat, Nabaz T

2015-09-01

This study analyzes landmine victim data in the Kurdistan Region during the period 1960 to 2005. A regression analysis is used to identify the determinants and impact of the probability of getting killed by mines and unexploded ordnances. The rates of killed/injured victims are explained using a set of socioeconomic variables. As the data are a repeated cross-section in which the individuals are observed when they are subjected to landmine incidents, and to account for the dynamic aspect of the process and heterogeneity by location as well as to control for unobserved location and time effects, a pseudo panel data are created where districts are observed over the entire time period forming a panel data. The results show that (a) males, children, and the elderly are more susceptible to a higher level of landmine risks; (b) landmine training and awareness programs do not reduce the rate of landmine mortality; and (c) the rate of incidents are declining over time. This result can be used in the planning, monitoring, and resource allocation for mine action, as well as labor market programs and rehabilitation activities. © The Author(s) 2014.

Analyzing crash frequency in freeway tunnels: A correlated random parameters approach.

PubMed

Hou, Qinzhong; Tarko, Andrew P; Meng, Xianghai

2018-02-01

The majority of past road safety studies focused on open road segments while only a few focused on tunnels. Moreover, the past tunnel studies produced some inconsistent results about the safety effects of the traffic patterns, the tunnel design, and the pavement conditions. The effects of these conditions therefore remain unknown, especially for freeway tunnels in China. The study presented in this paper investigated the safety effects of these various factors utilizing a four-year period (2009-2012) of data as well as three models: 1) a random effects negative binomial model (RENB), 2) an uncorrelated random parameters negative binomial model (URPNB), and 3) a correlated random parameters negative binomial model (CRPNB). Of these three, the results showed that the CRPNB model provided better goodness-of-fit and offered more insights into the factors that contribute to tunnel safety. The CRPNB was not only able to allocate the part of the otherwise unobserved heterogeneity to the individual model parameters but also was able to estimate the cross-correlations between these parameters. Furthermore, the study results showed that traffic volume, tunnel length, proportion of heavy trucks, curvature, and pavement rutting were associated with higher frequencies of traffic crashes, while the distance to the tunnel wall, distance to the adjacent tunnel, distress ratio, International Roughness Index (IRI), and friction coefficient were associated with lower crash frequencies. In addition, the effects of the heterogeneity of the proportion of heavy trucks, the curvature, the rutting depth, and the friction coefficient were identified and their inter-correlations were analyzed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

One-year reciprocal relationship between community participation and mental wellbeing in Australia: a panel analysis.

PubMed

Ding, Ning; Berry, Helen L; O'Brien, Léan V

2015-03-01

The links between social capital and mental wellbeing are established but the direction of the social capital-wellbeing relationship is rarely systematically examined. This omission undermines the validity of social capital as a basis for health interventions. The aim of this paper was to explore the short-term (one-year) reciprocal relationship between community participation - an important component of social capital - and mental wellbeing. We used nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey data, 2005-11. The HILDA Survey is an annual cohort study from which was extracted a sub-sample of panel data (the same people participating across multiple waves) enabling us to use fixed effects regression methods to model the longitudinal association of mental health and participation controlling for individual heterogeneity. The results showed that better mental wellbeing in one year was generally related to more community participation the next year, while greater past community participation was linked to better mental wellbeing the next year independent of (i) initial mental wellbeing, (ii) multiple potentially confounding factors and (iii) unobserved and time-constant heterogeneity. Political participation was marginally related to worse mental health in both directions. The results also showed that the association between community participation and mental wellbeing the next year is weaker for those with poor initial wellbeing than for initially healthier respondents. Our findings may inform the trial and scientific evaluation of programs aimed at increasing informal social connectedness and civic engagement to promote mental wellbeing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do slums matter? Location and early childhood preventive care choices among urban residents of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Heller, Lauren R

2013-10-01

Upward trends in the relative proportions of slum residents in developing countries have led to widespread concern regarding the impact of slum residency on health behaviors. Measurement of these impacts requires recognizing that unobservable household characteristics that affect the location decision may also affect health care choices and outcomes. To address the potential for bias, this paper models the location decision and the household's demand for maternal and child health services simultaneously using a flexible, semi-parametric approach. It uses a unique urban data set from Bangladesh that incorporates sophisticated geographical mapping techniques to carefully delineate between slum and non-slum areas at a particular point in time. The results suggest that accounting for the endogenous location decision of a family substantially reduces bias in estimated marginal effects of slum residence on preventive care demand. While community infrastructure variables appear correlated with preventive care demand, the causal effect of the availability of primary health care facilities is indistinguishable from zero when unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. The findings suggest that improvements in community infrastructure in urban areas of developing countries are a more favorable health policy solution at the margin than the construction of additional health care facilities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Error State Selection for Stationary SINS Alignment and Calibration Kalman Filters—Part II: Observability/Estimability Analysis

PubMed Central

Silva, Felipe O.; Hemerly, Elder M.; Leite Filho, Waldemar C.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the second part of a study aiming at the error state selection in Kalman filters applied to the stationary self-alignment and calibration (SSAC) problem of strapdown inertial navigation systems (SINS). The observability properties of the system are systematically investigated, and the number of unobservable modes is established. Through the analytical manipulation of the full SINS error model, the unobservable modes of the system are determined, and the SSAC error states (except the velocity errors) are proven to be individually unobservable. The estimability of the system is determined through the examination of the major diagonal terms of the covariance matrix and their eigenvalues/eigenvectors. Filter order reduction based on observability analysis is shown to be inadequate, and several misconceptions regarding SSAC observability and estimability deficiencies are removed. As the main contributions of this paper, we demonstrate that, except for the position errors, all error states can be minimally estimated in the SSAC problem and, hence, should not be removed from the filter. Corroborating the conclusions of the first part of this study, a 12-state Kalman filter is found to be the optimal error state selection for SSAC purposes. Results from simulated and experimental tests support the outlined conclusions. PMID:28241494

GenoMatrix: A Software Package for Pedigree-Based and Genomic Prediction Analyses on Complex Traits.

PubMed

Nazarian, Alireza; Gezan, Salvador Alejandro

2016-07-01

Genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction methodologies (G-BLUP and P-BLUP) have proven themselves efficient for partitioning the phenotypic variance of complex traits into its components, estimating the individuals' genetic merits, and predicting unobserved (or yet-to-be observed) phenotypes in many species and fields of study. The GenoMatrix software, presented here, is a user-friendly package to facilitate the process of using genome-wide marker data and parentage information for G-BLUP and P-BLUP analyses on complex traits. It provides users with a collection of applications which help them on a set of tasks from performing quality control on data to constructing and manipulating the genomic and pedigree-based relationship matrices and obtaining their inverses. Such matrices will be then used in downstream analyses by other statistical packages. The package also enables users to obtain predicted values for unobserved individuals based on the genetic values of observed related individuals. GenoMatrix is available to the research community as a Windows 64bit executable and can be downloaded free of charge at: http://compbio.ufl.edu/software/genomatrix/. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients☆

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Cheng; Shen, Yan; Wang, Boqing; Weeks, Greg

2014-01-01

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates. PMID:26052178

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients.

PubMed

Hsiao, Cheng; Shen, Yan; Wang, Boqing; Weeks, Greg

2008-07-01

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou's [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839-874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates.

Is life satisfaction hump-shaped with alcohol consumption? Evidence from Russian panel data.

PubMed

Massin, Sophie; Kopp, Pierre

2014-04-01

There has been a growing interest in the study of the shape of the relationship between alcohol consumption and psychological well-being in recent years. Overall, evidence is however still mixed and debated, the type of measures and methods of analysis having been emphasized as key elements in these studies. This paper contributes to this debate by providing new evidence relying on a large-scale population-based study. We used the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to build an unbalanced panel of 17,953 individuals providing 97,973 observations throughout 10 rounds. We studied the shape of the relationship between alcohol consumption (defined in grams of pure alcohol consumed in the last 30 days) and life satisfaction (measured by a five-item scale) by running a set of regressions. We successively introduced a large number of control variables (age, gender, marital status, occupation, income, health condition, education, living area, smoking status, and body mass index) and individual fixed effects in order to take both potential confounders and unobserved individual heterogeneity into account. Unadjusted analyses indicated a clear hump-shaped relationship between life satisfaction and alcohol use. The association was inverse J-shaped among men and inverse U-shaped among women. When control variables and individual fixed effects were introduced, the hump-shaped curve became increasingly flattened in all samples. Among women, all specifications (linear, quadratic and based on quartile dummies) turned non-significant. The quadratic specification for alcohol use remained however significant in the full sample and among men. In addition, in these two samples, being a fourth quartile drinker was negatively associated with satisfaction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supplemental nutrition assistance program and body weight outcomes: the role of economic contextual factors.

PubMed

Han, Euna; Powell, Lisa M; Isgor, Zeynep

2012-06-01

We explored the extent to which economic contextual factors moderated the association of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation with body mass index (BMI) among low-income adults whose family income (adjusted for family size) is less than 130% of the federal poverty guideline. We drew on individual-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics in the United States, including three waves of data in 1999, 2001, and 2003. Economic contextual data were drawn from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association for food prices and Dun & Bradstreet for food outlet measures. In addition to cross-sectional estimation, a longitudinal individual fixed effects model was used to control for permanent unobserved individual heterogeneity. Our study found a statistically significant joint moderating effect of the economic contextual factors in longitudinal individual fixed effects model for both women (BMI only) and men (both BMI and obesity). For both women and men, SNAP participants' BMI was statistically significantly lower if they faced increased numbers of available supermarkets/grocery stores in the longitudinal model. A simulated 20% reduction in the price of fruits and vegetables resulted in a larger decrease in BMI among SNAP participants than non-participants for women and men, whereas a simulated 20% increase in the availability of supermarkets and grocery stores resulted in a statistically significant difference in the change in BMI by SNAP participation for women but not for men. Policies related to economic contextual factors, such as subsidies for fruits and vegetables or those that would improve access to supermarkets and grocery stores may enhance the relationship between SNAP participation and body mass outcomes among food assistance program participants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Population Density and Neighborhood Deprivation Predict Schizophrenia? A Nationwide Swedish Family-Based Study of 2.4 Million Individuals

PubMed Central

Sariaslan, Amir; Larsson, Henrik; D’Onofrio, Brian; Långström, Niklas; Fazel, Seena; Lichtenstein, Paul

2015-01-01

People living in densely populated and socially disorganized areas have higher rates of psychiatric morbidity, but the potential causal status of such factors is uncertain. We used nationwide Swedish longitudinal registry data to identify all children born 1967–1989 (n = 2361585), including separate datasets for all cousins (n = 1715059) and siblings (n = 1667894). The nature of the associations between population density and neighborhood deprivation and individual risk for a schizophrenia diagnosis was investigated while adjusting for unobserved familial risk factors (through cousin and sibling comparisons) and then compared with similar associations for depression. We generated familial pedigree structures using the Multi-Generation Registry and identified study participants with schizophrenia and depression using the National Patient Registry. Fixed-effects logistic regression models were used to study within-family estimates. Population density, measured as ln(population size/km2), at age 15 predicted subsequent schizophrenia in the population (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.09; 1.11). Unobserved familial risk factors shared by cousins within extended families attenuated the association (1.06; 1.03; 1.10), and the link disappeared entirely within nuclear families (1.02; 0.97; 1.08). Similar results were found for neighborhood deprivation as predictor and for depression as outcome. Sensitivity tests demonstrated that timing and accumulation effects of the exposures (mean scores across birth, ages 1–5, 6–10, and 11–15 years) did not alter the findings. Excess risks of psychiatric morbidity, particularly schizophrenia, in densely populated and socioeconomically deprived Swedish neighborhoods appear, therefore, to result primarily from unobserved familial selection factors. Previous studies may have overemphasized the etiological importance of these environmental factors. PMID:25053652

Do High-School Teachers Really Matter? NBER Working Paper No. 17722

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, C. Kirabo

2012-01-01

Unlike in elementary schools, high school teacher effects may be confounded with unobserved track-level treatments (such as the AVID program) that are correlated with individual teachers. I present a strategy that exploits detailed course-taking information to credibly estimate the effects of 9th grade Algebra and English teachers on test scores.…

Adolescent Drug Use and the Deterrent Effect of School-Imposed Penalties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waddell, G. R.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the effect of school-imposed penalties for drug use on a student's consumption of marijuana are biased if both are determined by unobservable school or individual attributes. Reverse causality is also a potential challenge to retrieving estimates of the causal relationship, as the severity of school sanctions may simply reflect the…

Complex phenomena in social and financial systems : from bird population growth to the dynamics of the mutual fund industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzkopf, Yonathan

2011-12-01

This dissertation explores the impact of gasoline prices and transportation policies on consumer behavior through three separate channels: (1) by affecting the relative operating costs of the vehicles in a household's garage, (2) through stimulation of vehicle purchases due to the Cash-for-Clunkers policy, and (3) due to the availability and accessibility of high quality public transportation. Each of these channels is explored in a separate chapter. The first chapter presents a discrete-continuous household vehicle bundle model, where the household's choice of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is affected by gasoline prices and household and vehicle characteristics. I employ a revealed preference approach that allows for an unlimited choice set, within household vehicle substitution, vehicle specific fixed effects, and unobserved consumer heterogeneity. I use detailed micro-data from the National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) 2001 and 2009 to explore how different research assumptions affect how elastic households appear to the researcher. The second chapter analyzes the impact of the Cash-for-Clunkers policy implemented in fall 2009 on vehicle demand, overall emissions, gasoline demand, and job creation. We employ a difference-in-difference estimation technique, using Canada as the control group, and find that the policy overpriced the reduction of emissions relative to other emissions reductions policies. Finally, the third chapter explores how the availability of public transportation affects how sensitive individuals are to gasoline prices. Through the use of regressions and the NHTS 2001 dataset, we find that living in a city with good public transportation allows individuals to substitute a portion of their VMT, specifically in commuting, from private to public transit options, thus increasing their sensitivity to gasoline prices. We find that a gasoline tax in conjunction with an improvement in public transportation infrastructure could significantly reduce gasoline demand more than just a gasoline tax alone. There are many factors that affect gasoline and vehicle demand- public policies, household heterogeneity, public transportation availability, and prices. This dissertation explores how different research assumptions and techniques can change how responsive individuals appear to gasoline prices, and analyzes the impact of different transportation policies on overall gasoline and vehicle demand.

The economics of patient-centered care.

PubMed

David, Guy; Saynisch, Philip A; Smith-McLallen, Aaron

2018-05-01

The Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) is a widely-implemented model for improving primary care, emphasizing care coordination, information technology, and process improvements. However, its treatment as an undifferentiated intervention in policy evaluation obscures meaningful variation in implementation. This heterogeneity leads to contracting inefficiencies between insurers and practices and may account for mixed evidence on its success. Using a novel dataset we group practices into meaningful implementation clusters and then link these clusters with detailed patient claims data. We find implementation choice affects performance, suggesting that generally-unobserved features of primary care reorganization influence patient outcomes. Reporting these features may be valuable to insurers and their members. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Family size, cognitive outcomes, and familial interaction in stable, two-parent families: United States, 1997-2002.

PubMed

Sandberg, John; Rafail, Patrick

2014-10-01

Measures of children's time use, particularly with parents and siblings, are used to evaluate three hypotheses in relation to the vocabulary and mathematical skills development: (1) the resource dilution hypothesis, which argues that parental and household resources are diluted in larger families; (2) the confluence hypothesis, which suggests that the intellectual milieu of families is lowered with additional children; and (3) the admixture ("no effect") hypothesis, which suggests that the negative relationship between family size and achievement is an artifact of cross-sectional research resulting from unobserved heterogeneity. Each hypothesis is tested using within-child estimates of change in cognitive scores over time with the addition of new children to families.

Some Behaviorial Science Measurement Concerns and Proposals.

PubMed

Nesselroade, John R; Molenaar, Peter C M

2016-01-01

Primarily from a measurement standpoint, we question some basic beliefs and procedures characterizing the scientific study of human behavior. The relations between observed and unobserved variables are key to an empirical approach to building explanatory theories and we are especially concerned about how the former are used as proxies for the latter. We believe that behavioral science can profitably reconsider the prevailing version of this arrangement because of its vulnerability to limiting idiosyncratic aspects of observed/unobserved variable relations. We describe a general measurement approach that takes into account idiosyncrasies that should be irrelevant to the measurement process but can intrude and may invalidate it in ways that distort and weaken relations among theoretically important variables. To clarify further our major concerns, we briefly describe one version of the measurement approach that fundamentally supports the individual as the primary unit of analysis orientation that we believe should be preeminent in the scientific study of human behavior.

The use of cognitive ability measures as explanatory variables in regression analysis.

PubMed

Junker, Brian; Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Taylor, Lowell J

2012-12-01

Cognitive ability measures are often taken as explanatory variables in regression analysis, e.g., as a factor affecting a market outcome such as an individual's wage, or a decision such as an individual's education acquisition. Cognitive ability is a latent construct; its true value is unobserved. Nonetheless, researchers often assume that a test score , constructed via standard psychometric practice from individuals' responses to test items, can be safely used in regression analysis. We examine problems that can arise, and suggest that an alternative approach, a "mixed effects structural equations" (MESE) model, may be more appropriate in many circumstances.

A pseudo-sequential choice model for valuing multi-attribute environmental policies or programs in contingent valuation applications

Treesearch

Dmitriy Volinskiy; John C Bergstrom; Christopher M Cornwell; Thomas P Holmes

2010-01-01

The assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives in a sequential contingent valuation format should be questioned. Statistically, most valuation studies treat nonindependence as a consequence of unobserved individual effects. Another approach is to consider an inferential process in which any particular choice is part of a general choosing strategy of a survey...

Model Specifications for Estimating Labor Market Returns to Associate Degrees: How Robust Are Fixed Effects Estimates? A CAPSEE Working Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belfield, Clive; Bailey, Thomas

2017-01-01

Recently, studies have adopted fixed effects modeling to identify the returns to college. This method has the advantage over ordinary least squares estimates in that unobservable, individual-level characteristics that may bias the estimated returns are differenced out. But the method requires extensive longitudinal data and involves complex…

The effect of physical activity on adult obesity: evidence from the Canadian NPHS panel.

PubMed

Sarma, Sisira; Zaric, Gregory S; Campbell, M Karen; Gilliland, Jason

2014-07-01

Although physical activity has been considered as an important modifiable risk factor for obesity, the empirical evidence on the relationship between physical activity and obesity is mixed. Observational studies in the public health literature fail to account for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and dynamics of weight, leading to biased estimation of the effect of physical activity on obesity. To overcome this limitation, we propose dynamic fixed-effects models to account for unobserved heterogeneity bias and the dynamics of obesity. We use nationally representative longitudinal data on the cohort of adults aged 18-50 years in 1994/95 from Canada's National Population Health Survey and followed them over 16 years. Obesity is measured by BMI (body mass index). After controlling for a wide range of socio-economic factors, the impact of four alternative measures of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and work-related physical activity (WRPA) are analyzed. The results show that each measure of LTPA exerts a negative effect on BMI and the effects are larger for females. Our key results show that participation in LTPA exceeding 1.5 kcal/kg per day (i.e., at least 30 min of walking) reduces BMI by about 0.11-0.14 points in males and 0.20 points in females relative to physically inactive counterparts. Compared to those who are inactive at workplace, being able to stand or walk at work is associated with a reduction in BMI in the range of 0.16-0.19 points in males and 0.24-0.28 points in females. Lifting loads at workplace is associated with a reduction in BMI by 0.2-0.3 points in males and 0.3-0.4 points in females relative to those who are reported sedentary. Policies aimed at promotion of LTPA combined with WRPA like walking or climbing stairs daily would help reduce adult obesity risks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Reconstruction of Disease Outbreaks by Combining Epidemiologic and Genomic Data

PubMed Central

Jombart, Thibaut; Cori, Anne; Didelot, Xavier; Cauchemez, Simon; Fraser, Christophe; Ferguson, Neil

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. PMID:24465202

Efficacy of a numerical value of a fixed-effect estimator in stochastic frontier analysis as an indicator of hospital production structure.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Hiroyuki; Hashimoto, Hideki; Matsuda, Shinya

2012-09-22

The casemix-based payment system has been adopted in many countries, although it often needs complementary adjustment taking account of each hospital's unique production structure such as teaching and research duties, and non-profit motives. It has been challenging to numerically evaluate the impact of such structural heterogeneity on production, separately of production inefficiency. The current study adopted stochastic frontier analysis and proposed a method to assess unique components of hospital production structures using a fixed-effect variable. There were two stages of analyses in this study. In the first stage, we estimated the efficiency score from the hospital production function using a true fixed-effect model (TFEM) in stochastic frontier analysis. The use of a TFEM allowed us to differentiate the unobserved heterogeneity of individual hospitals as hospital-specific fixed effects. In the second stage, we regressed the obtained fixed-effect variable for structural components of hospitals to test whether the variable was explicitly related to the characteristics and local disadvantages of the hospitals. In the first analysis, the estimated efficiency score was approximately 0.6. The mean value of the fixed-effect estimator was 0.784, the standard deviation was 0.137, the range was between 0.437 and 1.212. The second-stage regression confirmed that the value of the fixed effect was significantly correlated with advanced technology and local conditions of the sample hospitals. The obtained fixed-effect estimator may reflect hospitals' unique structures of production, considering production inefficiency. The values of fixed-effect estimators can be used as evaluation tools to improve fairness in the reimbursement system for various functions of hospitals based on casemix classification.

Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

Longitudinal Predictors of Institutionalization in Old Age.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Brettschneider, Christian; Lange, Carolin; Posselt, Tina; Wiese, Birgitt; Steinmann, Susanne; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Stein, Janine; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Wagner, Michael; Jessen, Frank; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

2015-01-01

To investigate time-dependent predictors of institutionalization in old age using a longitudinal approach. In a representative survey of the German general population aged 75 years and older predictors of institutionalization were observed every 1.5 years over six waves. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions (with 201 individuals and 960 observations) were performed to estimate the effects of marital status, depression, dementia, and physical impairments (mobility, hearing and visual impairments) on the risk of admission to old-age home or nursing home. By exploiting the longitudinal data structure using panel econometric models, we were able to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as genetic predisposition and personality traits. The probability of institutionalization increased significantly with occurrence of widowhood, depression, dementia, as well as walking and hearing impairments. In particular, the occurrence of widowhood (OR = 78.3), dementia (OR = 154.1) and substantial mobility impairment (OR = 36.7) were strongly associated with institutionalization. Findings underline the strong influence of loss of spouse as well as dementia on institutionalization. This is relevant as the number of old people (a) living alone and (b) suffering from dementia is expected to increase rapidly in the next decades. Consequently, it is supposed that the demand for institutionalization among the elderly will increase considerably. Practitioners as well as policy makers should be aware of these upcoming challenges.

The effect of economic insecurity on mental health: Recent evidence from Australian panel data.

PubMed

Rohde, Nicholas; Tang, K K; Osberg, Lars; Rao, Prasada

2016-02-01

This paper estimates the impact of economic insecurity on the mental health of Australian adults. Taking microdata from the 2001-2011 HILDA panel survey, we develop a conceptually diverse set of insecurity measures and explore their relationships with the SF-36 mental health index. By using fixed effects models that control for unobservable heterogeneity we produce estimates that correct for endogeneity more thoroughly than previous works. Our results show that exposure to economic risks has small but consistently detrimental mental health effects. The main contribution of the paper however comes from the breadth of risks that are found to be harmful. Job insecurity, financial dissatisfaction, reductions and volatility in income, an inability to meet standard expenditures and a lack of access to emergency funds all adversely affect health. This suggests that the common element of economic insecurity (rather than idiosyncratic phenomena associated with any specific risk) is likely to be hazardous. Our preferred estimates indicate that a standard deviation shock to economic insecurity lowers an individual's mental health score by about 1.4 percentage points. If applied uniformly across the Australian population such a shock would increase the morbidity rate of mental disorders by about 1.7%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public sector low threshold office-based buprenorphine treatment: outcomes at year 7.

PubMed

Bhatraju, Elenore Patterson; Grossman, Ellie; Tofighi, Babak; McNeely, Jennifer; DiRocco, Danae; Flannery, Mara; Garment, Ann; Goldfeld, Keith; Gourevitch, Marc N; Lee, Joshua D

2017-02-28

Buprenorphine maintenance for opioid dependence remains of limited availability among underserved populations, despite increases in US opioid misuse and overdose deaths. Low threshold primary care treatment models including the use of unobserved, "home," buprenorphine induction may simplify initiation of care and improve access. Unobserved induction and long-term treatment outcomes have not been reported recently among large, naturalistic cohorts treated in low threshold safety net primary care settings. This prospective clinical registry cohort design estimated rates of induction-related adverse events, treatment retention, and urine opioid results for opioid dependent adults offered buprenorphine maintenance in a New York City public hospital primary care office-based practice from 2006 to 2013. This clinic relied on typical ambulatory care individual provider-patient visits, prescribed unobserved induction exclusively, saw patients no more than weekly, and did not require additional psychosocial treatment. Unobserved induction consisted of an in-person screening and diagnostic visit followed by a 1-week buprenorphine written prescription, with pamphlet, and telephone support. Primary outcomes analyzed were rates of induction-related adverse events (AE), week 1 drop-out, and long-term treatment retention. Factors associated with treatment retention were examined using a Cox proportional hazard model among inductions and all patients. Secondary outcomes included overall clinic retention, buprenorphine dosages, and urine sample results. Of the 485 total patients in our registry, 306 were inducted, and 179 were transfers already on buprenorphine. Post-induction (n = 306), week 1 drop-out was 17%. Rates of any induction-related AE were 12%; serious adverse events, 0%; precipitated withdrawal, 3%; prolonged withdrawal, 4%. Treatment retention was a median 38 weeks (range 0-320) for inductions, compared to 110 (0-354) weeks for transfers and 57 for the entire clinic population. Older age, later years of first clinic visit (vs. 2006-2007), and baseline heroin abstinence were associated with increased treatment retention overall. Unobserved "home" buprenorphine induction in a public sector primary care setting appeared a feasible and safe clinical practice. Post-induction treatment retention of a median 38 weeks was in line with previous naturalistic studies of real-world office-based opioid treatment. Low threshold treatment protocols, as compared to national guidelines, may compliment recently increased prescriber patient limits and expand access to buprenorphine among public sector opioid use disorder patients.

Effects of Deregulation and Vertical Unbundling on the Performance of China's Electricity Generation Sector†

PubMed Central

Gao, Hang; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes

2014-01-01

The restructuring of the Chinese electricity sector in 2002 reshaped the market structure by vertically unbundling the dominant integrated firm and started the process of wholesale price liberalization. We estimate factor demands to study whether these reforms boosted productivity in the generation segment of the industry. Controlling explicitly for price‐heterogeneity across firms and unobservable productivity shocks, we find that the reforms are associated with reductions in labor and material use of 7 and 5 per cent, respectively. These effects only appear two years after the reforms and are robust to many specification checks. The absolute magnitudes of the estimated restructuring effects vary in intuitive ways by location, firm size or age, and for different definitions of restructured firms. PMID:27076686

A review on models for count data with extra zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2017-04-01

Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

International migration and the propagation of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Docquier, F; Vasilakis, Ch; Tamfutu Munsi, D

2014-05-01

In this paper, we identify and quantify the role of international migration in the propagation of HIV across sub-Saharan African countries. We use panel data on bilateral migration flows and HIV prevalence rates covering 44 countries after 1990. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, reverse causality, reflection issues, incorrect treatment of country fixed effects and spatial autocorrelation, we find evidence of a highly robust emigration-induced propagation mechanism. On the contrary, immigration has no significant effect. Numerical experiments reveal that the long-run effect of emigration accounts for more than 4 percent of the number of HIV cases in 15 countries (and more than 20 percent in 6 countries). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship of cotinine-verified and self-reported smoking status with metabolic syndrome in 116,094 Korean adults.

PubMed

Kim, Byung Jin; Han, Ji Min; Kang, Jung Gyu; Rhee, Eun Jung; Kim, Bum Soo; Kang, Jin Ho

No study has reported the relationship between cotinine-verified and self-reported smoking status with metabolic syndrome (MetS). This study was performed to evaluate the relationship between urinary cotinine-verified and self-reported smoking status with MetS and determine the effects of unobserved smokers on MetS in Korean adults. A total of 116,094 individuals (66,875 men and 49,219 women) with mean age of 36.7 ± 6.8 years included in Kangbuk Samsung Health Study and Kangbuk Samsung Cohort Study between 2011 and 2013 who had urinary cotinine measurements were enrolled. Cotinine-verified current smoking was defined as urinary cotinine level of above 50 ng/mL. Unobserved smoking was defined as urinary cotinine level of above 50 ng/mL in self-reported never smokers. The overall prevalence rates of cotinine-verified current smokers and MetS were 22.9% and 10.5%, respectively. The misclassification rate to cotinine-verified current smokers among self-reported never smokers was 1.7%. A multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for variables with univariate relationship (model 1) showed that cotinine-verified current smokers significantly increased the odds ratio for MetS compared with cotinine-verified never smokers (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.30 [1.23, 1.37]). Log-transformed cotinine levels were also associated with MetS (1.04 [1.03, 1.05]). However, the association was not significant in the previously mentioned model including the traditional 5 components of MetS (model 2). Unobserved smokers significantly increased the ORs for MetS in both model 1 (1.43 [1.23, 1.67]) and model 2 (1.57 [1.06, 2.33]). This study shows that unobserved smoking and cotinine-verified current smoking are associated with MetS but urinary cotinine could be 1 conditional factor that interacts with traditional MetS components. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Techniques for the Evaluation of Toxicant Impacts to Multispecies Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-28

that an unobserved feature of the community carried information about the stressor throughout the history of the system. In the case of the SAMs, we...the hypothesis that an unobserved feature of the community carried information about the stressor throughout the history of the system. In the case of...follow similar evolutions, without the divergences characteristic of nonlinear systems. Instead, we advanced the hypothesis that an unobserved feature of

A spatial panel ordered-response model with application to the analysis of urban land-use development intensity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdous, Nazneen; Bhat, Chandra R.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes and estimates a spatial panel ordered-response probit model with temporal autoregressive error terms to analyze changes in urban land development intensity levels over time. Such a model structure maintains a close linkage between the land owner's decision (unobserved to the analyst) and the land development intensity level (observed by the analyst) and accommodates spatial interactions between land owners that lead to spatial spillover effects. In addition, the model structure incorporates spatial heterogeneity as well as spatial heteroscedasticity. The resulting model is estimated using a composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach that does not require any simulation machinery and that can be applied to data sets of any size. A simulation exercise indicates that the CML approach recovers the model parameters very well, even in the presence of high spatial and temporal dependence. In addition, the simulation results demonstrate that ignoring spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity when both are actually present will lead to bias in parameter estimation. A demonstration exercise applies the proposed model to examine urban land development intensity levels using parcel-level data from Austin, Texas.

Globalisation and national trends in nutrition and health: A grouped fixed-effects approach to intercountry heterogeneity.

PubMed

Oberlander, Lisa; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Etilé, Fabrice

2017-09-01

Using a panel dataset of 70 countries spanning 42 years (1970-2011), we investigate the distinct effects of social globalisation and trade openness on national trends in markers of diet quality (supplies of animal proteins, free fats and sugar, average body mass index, and diabetes prevalence). Our key methodological contribution is the application of a grouped fixed-effects estimator, which extends linear fixed-effects models. The grouped fixed-effects estimator partitions our sample into distinct groups of countries in order to control for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity that follows a group-specific pattern. We find that increasing social globalisation has a significant impact on the supplies of animal protein and sugar available for human consumption, as well as on mean body mass index. Specific components of social globalisation such as information flows (via television and the Internet) drive these results. Trade openness has no effect on dietary outcomes or health. These findings suggest that the social and cultural aspects of globalisation should receive greater attention in research on the nutrition transition. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does population density and neighborhood deprivation predict schizophrenia? A nationwide Swedish family-based study of 2.4 million individuals.

PubMed

Sariaslan, Amir; Larsson, Henrik; D'Onofrio, Brian; Långström, Niklas; Fazel, Seena; Lichtenstein, Paul

2015-03-01

People living in densely populated and socially disorganized areas have higher rates of psychiatric morbidity, but the potential causal status of such factors is uncertain. We used nationwide Swedish longitudinal registry data to identify all children born 1967-1989 (n = 2361585), including separate datasets for all cousins (n = 1715059) and siblings (n = 1667894). The nature of the associations between population density and neighborhood deprivation and individual risk for a schizophrenia diagnosis was investigated while adjusting for unobserved familial risk factors (through cousin and sibling comparisons) and then compared with similar associations for depression. We generated familial pedigree structures using the Multi-Generation Registry and identified study participants with schizophrenia and depression using the National Patient Registry. Fixed-effects logistic regression models were used to study within-family estimates. Population density, measured as ln(population size/km(2)), at age 15 predicted subsequent schizophrenia in the population (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.09; 1.11). Unobserved familial risk factors shared by cousins within extended families attenuated the association (1.06; 1.03; 1.10), and the link disappeared entirely within nuclear families (1.02; 0.97; 1.08). Similar results were found for neighborhood deprivation as predictor and for depression as outcome. Sensitivity tests demonstrated that timing and accumulation effects of the exposures (mean scores across birth, ages 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 years) did not alter the findings. Excess risks of psychiatric morbidity, particularly schizophrenia, in densely populated and socioeconomically deprived Swedish neighborhoods appear, therefore, to result primarily from unobserved familial selection factors. Previous studies may have overemphasized the etiological importance of these environmental factors. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Human Orbitofrontal Cortex Represents a Cognitive Map of State Space.

PubMed

Schuck, Nicolas W; Cai, Ming Bo; Wilson, Robert C; Niv, Yael

2016-09-21

Although the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been studied intensely for decades, its precise functions have remained elusive. We recently hypothesized that the OFC contains a "cognitive map" of task space in which the current state of the task is represented, and this representation is especially critical for behavior when states are unobservable from sensory input. To test this idea, we apply pattern-classification techniques to neuroimaging data from humans performing a decision-making task with 16 states. We show that unobservable task states can be decoded from activity in OFC, and decoding accuracy is related to task performance and the occurrence of individual behavioral errors. Moreover, similarity between the neural representations of consecutive states correlates with behavioral accuracy in corresponding state transitions. These results support the idea that OFC represents a cognitive map of task space and establish the feasibility of decoding state representations in humans using non-invasive neuroimaging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MARRIAGE, BMI, AND WAGES: A DOUBLE SELECTION APPROACH

PubMed Central

Brown, Heather

2011-01-01

Obesity rates have been rising over the past decade. As more people become obese, the social stigma of obesity may be reduced. Marriage has typically been used as a positive signal to employers. If obese individuals possess other characteristics that are valued in the labour market they may no longer face a wage penalty for their physical appearance. This paper investigates the relationship between marital status, body mass index (BMI), and wages by estimating a double selection model that controls for selection into the labour and marriage markets using waves 14 and 16 (2004 and 2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. Results suggest that unobserved characteristics related to marriage and labour market participation are causing an upward bias onthe BMI coefficients. The BMI coefficient is positive and significant for married men only in the double selection model. The findings provide evidence that unobserved characteristics related to success in the marriage and labour market may influence the relationship between BMI and wages. PMID:21910281

The effect of premiums on the decision to participate in health insurance and other fringe benefits offered by the employer: evidence from a real-world experiment.

PubMed

Royalty, Anne Beeson; Hagens, John

2005-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the effect of the out-of-pocket premium on the decision to enroll in employer health insurance and other benefits plans including dental insurance, vision care, long-term care insurance, and wellness benefits. Previous estimates of the effects of premium on takeup of health insurance could be biased toward zero due to a correlation between premium and unobservable demand or plan quality. We solve this problem using data representing hypothetical choices by employees under three different price regimes, providing price variation uncorrelated with either individual-specific or plan-specific unobservables. We find that workers are insensitive to price in health insurance takeup. Workers show much greater price sensitivity to decisions about dental insurance, vision plans, long-term care insurance, and wellness benefits. We conclude that premium subsidies are unlikely to have a substantial impact on increasing insurance rates of workers already offered employer insurance.

What Do Test Score Really Mean? A Latent Class Analysis of Danish Test Score Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntosh, James; Munk, Martin D.

2014-01-01

Latent class Poisson count models are used to analyse a sample of Danish test score results from a cohort of individuals born in 1954-1955, tested in 1968, and followed until 2011. The procedure takes account of unobservable effects as well as excessive zeros in the data. We show that the test scores measure manifest or measured ability as it has…

Costs and outcomes of the German disease management programme (DMP) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-A large population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Achelrod, Dmitrij; Welte, Tobias; Schreyögg, Jonas; Stargardt, Tom

2016-09-01

To curb costs and improve health outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a nationwide disease management programme (DMP) was introduced in Germany in 2005. Yet, its effectiveness has not been comprehensively evaluated. To examine the effects of the German COPD DMP over three years on costs and health resource utilisation from the payer perspective, process quality, morbidity and mortality. A retrospective, population-based cohort study design is applied, using administrative data. After eliminating differences in observable characteristics between the DMP and the control group with entropy balancing, difference-in-difference estimators were computed to account for time-invariant unobservable heterogeneity. 215,104 individuals were included into the analysis of whom 25,269 were enrolled in the DMP. DMP patients had a reduced mortality hazard ratio (0.89, 95%CI: 0.84-0.94) but incurred excess costs of €553 per year. DMP enrolees reveal higher healthcare utilisation with larger shares of individuals being hospitalised (3.14%), consulting an outpatient clinic due to exacerbations (11.13%) and pharmaceutical prescriptions (2.78). However, average length of hospitalisation due to COPD fell by 0.49 days, adherence to medication guidelines as well as indicators for morbidity improved. The German COPD DMP achieved significant improvements in mortality, morbidity and process quality, but at higher costs. Given the low ICER per life year gained, DMP COPD may constitute a cost-effective option to promote COPD population health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior

PubMed Central

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a “breakeven analysis” encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others. PMID:28579641

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior.

PubMed

Brown, Jeffrey R; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S

2016-03-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a "breakeven analysis" encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others.

The influence of a smoking ban on the profitability of Belgian restaurants.

PubMed

De Schoenmaker, Sofie; Van Cauwenberge, Philippe; Vander Bauwhede, Heidi

2013-05-01

To examine whether the nationwide smoking ban, imposed in 2007, had an impact on the profitability of Belgian restaurants. Objective financial reporting data on 1613 restaurants were analysed with return on assets as the outcome measure. The data were collected from the Belfirst database and cover the period 2004-2009. To assess the impact of the smoking ban, a differences-in-differences estimation method was used, with bars serving as the control group. The regression model was estimated, while controlling for firm-specific characteristics and unobserved firm-level heterogeneity. The variable of interest is the interaction between the smoking ban dummy and the dummy for the treatment group. The coefficient of this variable is insignificant. The adoption of the nationwide smoking ban did not affect the profitability of Belgian restaurants.

Family income, parenting styles and child behavioural-emotional outcomes.

PubMed

Dooley, Martin; Stewart, Jennifer

2007-02-01

A positive relationship between income and child outcomes has been observed in data from numerous countries. A key question concerns the extent to which this association represents a causal relationship as opposed to unobserved heterogeneity. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth to implement a series of empirical strategies for estimating the existence and size of the effect of income on behavioural-emotional outcomes. We also examine the role of parenting style. Our results indicate that there is little evidence of an effect of income on behavioural-emotional scores. The exclusion of parenting style from the models was found to not bias the estimated income effect, but parenting style was found to have a consistent impact on child outcomes. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Essentialism and Racial Bias Jointly Contribute to the Categorization of Multiracial Individuals.

PubMed

Ho, Arnold K; Roberts, Steven O; Gelman, Susan A

2015-10-01

Categorizations of multiracial individuals provide insight into the psychological mechanisms driving social stratification, but few studies have explored the interplay of cognitive and motivational underpinnings of these categorizations. In the present study, we integrated research on racial essentialism (i.e., the belief that race demarcates unobservable and immutable properties) and negativity bias (i.e., the tendency to weigh negative entities more heavily than positive entities) to explain why people might exhibit biases in the categorization of multiracial individuals. As theorized, racial essentialism, both dispositional (Study 1) and experimentally induced (Study 2), led to the categorization of Black-White multiracial individuals as Black, but only among individuals evaluating Black people more negatively than White people. These findings demonstrate how fundamental cognitive and motivational biases interact to influence the categorization of multiracial individuals. © The Author(s) 2015.

Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the parasite and its vector, but also socio-economic conditions, such as levels of urbanization, poverty and education, which impact human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for the modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Methods A statistical mixed model framework is proposed to model malaria risk at the district level in Malawi, using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases from July 2004 to June 2011. Several climatic, geographic and socio-economic factors thought to influence malaria incidence were tested in an exploratory model. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a generalized linear mixed model was adopted, which included structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Using a stepwise model selection procedure, several explanatory variables were identified to have significant associations with malaria including climatic, cartographic and socio-economic data. Once intervention variations, unobserved confounding factors and spatial correlation were considered in a Bayesian framework, a final model emerged with statistically significant predictor variables limited to average precipitation (quadratic relation) and average temperature during the three months previous to the month of interest. Conclusions When modelling malaria risk in Malawi it is important to account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and correlation between districts. Once observed and unobserved confounding factors are allowed for, precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

Inferences about unobserved causes in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Waldmann, Michael R

2007-03-01

Estimates of the causal efficacy of an event need to take into account the possible presence and influence of other unobserved causes that might have contributed to the occurrence of the effect. Current theoretical approaches deal differently with this problem. Associative theories assume that at least one unobserved cause is always present. In contrast, causal Bayes net theories (including Power PC theory) hypothesize that unobserved causes may be present or absent. These theories generally assume independence of different causes of the same event, which greatly simplifies modelling learning and inference. In two experiments participants were requested to learn about the causal relation between a single cause and an effect by observing their co-occurrence (Experiment 1) or by actively intervening in the cause (Experiment 2). Participants' assumptions about the presence of an unobserved cause were assessed either after each learning trial or at the end of the learning phase. The results show an interesting dissociation. Whereas there was a tendency to assume interdependence of the causes in the online judgements during learning, the final judgements tended to be more in the direction of an independence assumption. Possible explanations and implications of these findings are discussed.

Repeat immigration: A previously unobserved source of heterogeneity?

PubMed

Aradhya, Siddartha; Scott, Kirk; Smith, Christopher D

2017-07-01

Register data allow for nuanced analyses of heterogeneities between sub-groups which are not observable in other data sources. One heterogeneity for which register data is particularly useful is in identifying unique migration histories of immigrant populations, a group of interest across disciplines. Years since migration is a commonly used measure of integration in studies seeking to understand the outcomes of immigrants. This study constructs detailed migration histories to test whether misclassified migrations may mask important heterogeneities. In doing so, we identify a previously understudied group of migrants called repeat immigrants, and show that they differ systematically from permanent immigrants. In addition, we quantify the degree to which migration information is misreported in the registers. The analysis is carried out in two steps. First, we estimate income trajectories for repeat immigrants and permanent immigrants to understand the degree to which they differ. Second, we test data validity by cross-referencing migration information with changes in income to determine whether there are inconsistencies indicating misreporting. From the first part of the analysis, the results indicate that repeat immigrants systematically differ from permanent immigrants in terms of income trajectories. Furthermore, income trajectories differ based on the way in which years since migration is calculated. The second part of the analysis suggests that misreported migration events, while present, are negligible. Repeat immigrants differ in terms of income trajectories, and may differ in terms of other outcomes as well. Furthermore, this study underlines that Swedish registers provide a reliable data source to analyze groups which are unidentifiable in other data sources.

The effect of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland.

PubMed

Ormond, Gillian; Murphy, Rosemary

2016-11-01

This paper presents a study of the effects of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland using the Slán National Health and Lifestyle Survey 2007 dataset, accounting for endogeneity and selection bias. Drinkers are categorised into one of four categories based on the recommended weekly drinking levels by the Irish Health Promotion Unit; those who never drank, non-drinkers, moderate and heavy drinkers. A multinomial logit OLS Two Step Estimate is used to explain individual's choice of drinking status and to correct for selection bias which would result in the selection into a particular category of drinking being endogenous. Endogeneity which may arise through the simultaneity of drinking status and income either due to the reverse causation between the two variables, income affecting alcohol consumption or alcohol consumption affecting income, or due to unobserved heterogeneity, is addressed. This paper finds that the household income of drinkers is higher than that of non-drinkers and of those who never drank. There is very little difference between the household income of moderate and heavy drinkers, with heavy drinkers earning slightly more. Weekly household income for those who never drank is €454.20, non-drinkers is €506.26, compared with €683.36 per week for moderate drinkers and €694.18 for heavy drinkers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does industrial waste taxation contribute to reduction of landfilled waste? Dynamic panel analysis considering industrial waste category in Japan.

PubMed

Sasao, Toshiaki

2014-11-01

Waste taxes, such as landfill and incineration taxes, have emerged as a popular option in developed countries to promote the 3Rs (reduce, reuse, and recycle). However, few studies have examined the effectiveness of waste taxes. In addition, quite a few studies have considered both dynamic relationships among dependent variables and unobserved individual heterogeneity among the jurisdictions. If dependent variables are persistent, omitted variables cause a bias, or common characteristics exist across the jurisdictions that have introduced waste taxes, the standard fixed effects model may lead to biased estimation results and misunderstood causal relationships. In addition, most existing studies have examined waste in terms of total amounts rather than by categories. Even if significant reductions in total waste amounts are not observed, some reduction within each category may, nevertheless, become evident. Therefore, this study analyzes the effects of industrial waste taxation on quantities of waste in landfill in Japan by applying the bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable (LSDVC) estimators; the general method of moments (difference GMM); and the system GMM. In addition, the study investigates effect differences attributable to industrial waste categories and taxation types. This paper shows that industrial waste taxes in Japan have minimal, significant effects on the reduction of final disposal amounts thus far, considering dynamic relationships and waste categories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Length of Stay to Control for Unobserved Heterogeneity When Estimating Treatment Effect on Hospital Costs with Observational Data: Issues of Reliability, Robustness, and Usefulness.

PubMed

May, Peter; Garrido, Melissa M; Cassel, J Brian; Morrison, R Sean; Normand, Charles

2016-10-01

To evaluate the sensitivity of treatment effect estimates when length of stay (LOS) is used to control for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating treatment effect on cost of hospital admission with observational data. We used data from a prospective cohort study on the impact of palliative care consultation teams (PCCTs) on direct cost of hospital care. Adult patients with an advanced cancer diagnosis admitted to five large medical and cancer centers in the United States between 2007 and 2011 were eligible for this study. Costs were modeled using generalized linear models with a gamma distribution and a log link. We compared variability in estimates of PCCT impact on hospitalization costs when LOS was used as a covariate, as a sample parameter, and as an outcome denominator. We used propensity scores to account for patient characteristics associated with both PCCT use and total direct hospitalization costs. We analyzed data from hospital cost databases, medical records, and questionnaires. Our propensity score weighted sample included 969 patients who were discharged alive. In analyses of hospitalization costs, treatment effect estimates are highly sensitive to methods that control for LOS, complicating interpretation. Both the magnitude and significance of results varied widely with the method of controlling for LOS. When we incorporated intervention timing into our analyses, results were robust to LOS-controls. Treatment effect estimates using LOS-controls are not only suboptimal in terms of reliability (given concerns over endogeneity and bias) and usefulness (given the need to validate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention using overall resource use for a sample defined at baseline) but also in terms of robustness (results depend on the approach taken, and there is little evidence to guide this choice). To derive results that minimize endogeneity concerns and maximize external validity, investigators should match and analyze treatment and comparison arms on baseline factors only. Incorporating intervention timing may deliver results that are more reliable, more robust, and more useful than those derived using LOS-controls. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Body weight and wages: evidence from Add Health.

PubMed

Sabia, Joseph J; Rees, Daniel I

2012-01-01

This note uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the relationship between body weight and wages. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and individual fixed effects estimates provide evidence that overweight and obese white women are paid substantially less per hour than their slimmer counterparts. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation confirms this relationship, suggesting that it is not driven by time-variant unobservables. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Racial Inequality in Education in Brazil: A Twins Fixed-Effects Approach.

PubMed

Marteleto, Letícia J; Dondero, Molly

2016-08-01

Racial disparities in education in Brazil (and elsewhere) are well documented. Because this research typically examines educational variation between individuals in different families, however, it cannot disentangle whether racial differences in education are due to racial discrimination or to structural differences in unobserved neighborhood and family characteristics. To address this common data limitation, we use an innovative within-family twin approach that takes advantage of the large sample of Brazilian adolescent twins classified as different races in the 1982 and 1987-2009 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios. We first examine the contexts within which adolescent twins in the same family are labeled as different races to determine the characteristics of families crossing racial boundaries. Then, as a way to hold constant shared unobserved and observed neighborhood and family characteristics, we use twins fixed-effects models to assess whether racial disparities in education exist between twins and whether such disparities vary by gender. We find that even under this stringent test of racial inequality, the nonwhite educational disadvantage persists and is especially pronounced for nonwhite adolescent boys.

Racial Inequality in Education in Brazil: A Twins Fixed-Effects Approach

PubMed Central

Marteleto, Letícia; Dondero, Molly

2016-01-01

Racial disparities in education in Brazil (and elsewhere) are well documented. Because this research typically examines educational variation between individuals in different families, however, it cannot disentangle whether racial differences in education are due to racial discrimination or to structural differences in unobserved neighborhood and family characteristics. To address this common data limitation, we use an innovative within-family twin approach that takes advantage of the large sample of Brazilian adolescent twins classified as different races in the 1982 and 1987–2009 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios. We first examine the contexts within which adolescent twins in the same family are labeled as different races to determine the characteristics of families crossing racial boundaries. Then, as a way to hold constant shared unobserved and observed neighborhood and family characteristics, we use twins fixed-effects models to assess whether racial disparities in education exist between twins and whether such disparities vary by gender. We find that even under this stringent test of racial inequality, the nonwhite educational disadvantage persists and is especially pronounced for nonwhite adolescent boys. PMID:27443551

Cyclists' red-light running behaviours: an examination of risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying behaviours.

PubMed

Pai, Chih-Wei; Jou, Rong-Chang

2014-01-01

Literature has suggested that bicyclists' red-light violations (RLVs) tend not to cause accidents although RLV is a frequent and typical bicyclist's behaviour. High association between bicyclist RLVs and accidents were, however, revealed in Taiwan. The current research explores bicyclists' RLVs by classifying crossing behaviours into three distinct manners: risk-taking, opportunistic, and law-obeying. Other variables, as well as bicyclists' crossing behaviours, were captured through the use of video cameras that were installed at selected intersections in Taoyuan County, Taiwan. Considering the unobserved heterogeneity, this research develops a mixed logit model of bicyclists' three distinct crossing behaviours. Several variables (pupils in uniform, speed limit with 60km/h) appear to have heterogeneous effects, lending support to the use of mixed logit models in bicyclist RLV research. Several factors were found to significantly increase the likelihood of bicyclists' risky behaviours, most notably: intersections with short red-light duration, T/Y intersections, when riders were pupils in uniform, when riders were riding electric bicycles, when riders were unhelmeted. Implications of the research findings, and the concluding remarks, are finally provided. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual heterogeneity in reproductive rates and cost of reproduction in a long-lived vertebrate

PubMed Central

Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D; Garrott, Robert A

2013-01-01

Individual variation in reproductive success is a key feature of evolution, but also has important implications for predicting population responses to variable environments. Although such individual variation in reproductive outcomes has been reported in numerous studies, most analyses to date have not considered whether these realized differences were due to latent individual heterogeneity in reproduction or merely random chance causing different outcomes among like individuals. Furthermore, latent heterogeneity in fitness components might be expressed differently in contrasted environmental conditions, an issue that has only rarely been investigated. Here, we assessed (i) the potential existence of latent individual heterogeneity and (ii) the nature of its expression (fixed vs. variable) in a population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii), using a hierarchical modeling approach on a 30-year mark–recapture data set consisting of 954 individual encounter histories. We found strong support for the existence of latent individual heterogeneity in the population, with “robust” individuals expected to produce twice as many pups as “frail” individuals. Moreover, the expression of individual heterogeneity appeared consistent, with only mild evidence that it might be amplified when environmental conditions are severe. Finally, the explicit modeling of individual heterogeneity allowed us to detect a substantial cost of reproduction that was not evidenced when the heterogeneity was ignored. PMID:23919151

Keeping nurses at work: a duration analysis.

PubMed

Holmås, Tor Helge

2002-09-01

A shortage of nurses is currently a problem in several countries, and an important question is therefore how one can increase the supply of nursing labour. In this paper, we focus on the issue of nurses leaving the public health sector by utilising a unique data set containing information on both the supply and demand side of the market. To describe the exit rate from the health sector we apply a semi-parametric hazard rate model. In the estimations, we correct for unobserved heterogeneity by both a parametric (Gamma) and a non-parametric approach. We find that both wages and working conditions have an impact on nurses' decision to quit. Furthermore, failing to correct for the fact that nurses' income partly consists of compensation for inconvenient working hours results in a considerable downward bias of the wage effect. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unemployment scarring by gender: Human capital depreciation or stigmatization? Longitudinal evidence from the Netherlands, 1980-2000.

PubMed

Mooi-Reci, Irma; Ganzeboom, Harry B

2015-07-01

Using longitudinal data from the Dutch Labor Force Supply Panel (OSA), this article examines how unemployment scarring (i.e., wage setbacks following unemployment) and its underlying mechanisms operate across gender in the Netherlands over the period 1985-2000. A series of fixed effect panel models that correct for unobserved heterogeneity, reveal a notable disparity in unemployment scarring by gender. Interestingly, while unemployment scarring is short-lived and partly conditional upon human capital differences among women, it is strongly persistent among men and contingent upon old age, ethnicity, and tight economic conditions. Our findings provide new evidence regarding unemployment scarring by gender while they support the hypothesis that among women the effects of unemployment scarring are predominantly driven by human capital depreciation, while among men stigma effects dominate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

PubMed

Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

2017-09-01

Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Competing risks regression for clustered data

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingqing; Fine, Jason; Latouche, Aurelien; Labopin, Myriam

2012-01-01

A population average regression model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function when there is dependence across individuals within a cluster in the competing risks setting. This method extends the Fine–Gray proportional hazards model for the subdistribution to situations, where individuals within a cluster may be correlated due to unobserved shared factors. Estimators of the regression parameters in the marginal model are developed under an independence working assumption where the correlation across individuals within a cluster is completely unspecified. The estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and variance estimation may be achieved without specifying the form of the dependence across individuals. A simulation study evidences that the inferential procedures perform well with realistic sample sizes. The practical utility of the methods is illustrated with data from the European Bone Marrow Transplant Registry. PMID:22045910

Growth, Persistence, and Desistance of Alcohol Use for At-Risk Men in Their 30s

PubMed Central

Capaldi, Deborah M.; Tiberio, Stacey S.; Washburn, Isaac J.; Yoerger, Karen; Feingold, Alan

2015-01-01

Background Little is known about heterogeneity in men's drinking behaviors and their related consequences across midadulthood, and moreover, whether individual or social factors may predict such differences. The present study examined 3 indicators of alcohol use; namely, alcohol volume, heavy episodic drinking (HED), and drinking-related problems for men in their 30s. Methods Participants were 197 at-risk men from the Oregon Youth Study assessed 5 times across ages 29–38 years. Growth mixture modeling with count outcomes was used to examine unobserved heterogeneity in alcohol trajectories. Associations of latent classes of alcohol users with (i) classes for the other alcohol indicators, (ii) alcohol use by peers and romantic partners, (iii) alcohol classes previously extracted from ages 18–29 years, and (iv) past year alcohol use disorder (AUD) diagnostic status at ages 35–36 years was examined. Results A 3-class solution afforded the best fit for each alcohol indicator. Alcohol problems were relatively established in the 30s, with an ascending use class found only for volume. Although relatively few men were in higher classes for all 3 indicators, 45% of the sample was in the highest class on at least 2 indicators of use. Peer drunkenness was a robust predictor of the alcohol classes. Concordance among classes of alcohol users was seen from the 20s to the 30s, with prior desistance likely to be maintained for alcohol volume and HED. AUD diagnoses at ages 35–36 years were more common in the higher classes obtained for alcohol volume and alcohol problems. Conclusions Many men in their 30s engaged in high volume of alcohol without frequent engagement in HED, likely relating to continuing alcohol problems. The convergence of men's alcohol use with that of their peers found at younger ages was maintained into early midadulthood. PMID:26010338

Personality traits and body weight: Evidence using sibling comparisons.

PubMed

Kim, Jinho

2016-08-01

Past research has shown that personality traits relate to body weight, but this relationship may be confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics such as genetic endowments. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the association between personality traits, as measured by the Big Five taxonomy, and body weight among young adults is spurious owing to shared family background. Participants were drawn from the full (n = 14,366) and family (n = 2813) samples of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). The study employed family-fixed effects to eliminate shared family background factors that might affect personality traits and body weight simultaneously. Among the Big Five personality traits, only conscientiousness showed a robust association with body weight, including body mass index (BMI) and obesity risk. These results were robust to adjustments for family-fixed effects, which indicates that the association between conscientiousness and body weight is generally not confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics shared by siblings. A one-standard-deviation increase in conscientiousness was associated with a decrease in BMI by 0.89 (equivalent to a 2.5 kg decrease in weight for an individual with an average height of the sample) and a 12% reduction in the probability of being obese. This study also found some suggestive evidence of gender and racial/ethnic differences. The association between conscientiousness and obesity was larger and statistically significant only for women, and conscientiousness was most strongly associated with obesity among Hispanic people. Conscientiousness is associated with decreased body weight net of unobserved background characteristics that are shared by siblings. The results suggest that interventions that develop personality traits may have "spillover effects"; in other words, they may also help reduce obesity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personality Traits and Body Weight: Evidence Using Sibling Comparisons

PubMed Central

Kim, Jinho

2016-01-01

Rationale Past research has shown that personality traits relate to body weight, but this relationship may be confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics such as genetic endowments. Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the association between personality traits, as measured by the Big Five taxonomy, and body weight among young adults is spurious owing to shared family background. Methods Participants were drawn from the full (n = 14,366) and family (n = 2,813) samples of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). The study employed family-fixed effects to eliminate shared family background factors that might affect personality traits and body weight simultaneously. Results Among the Big Five personality traits, only conscientiousness showed a robust association with body weight, including body mass index (BMI) and obesity risk. These results were robust to adjustments for family-fixed effects, which indicates that the association between conscientiousness and body weight is generally not confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics shared by siblings. A one-standard-deviation increase in conscientiousness was associated with a decrease in BMI by 0.89 (equivalent to a 2.5 kg decrease in weight for an individual with an average height of the sample) and a 12% reduction in the probability of being obese. This study also found some suggestive evidence of gender and racial/ethnic differences. The association between conscientiousness and obesity was larger and statistically significant only for women, and conscientiousness was most strongly associated with obesity among Hispanic people. Conclusion Conscientiousness is associated with decreased body weight net of unobserved background characteristics that are shared by siblings. The results suggest that interventions that develop personality traits may have “spillover effects”; in other words, they may also help reduce obesity. PMID:27394194

Cultural events - does attendance improve health? Evidence from a Polish longitudinal study.

PubMed

Węziak-Białowolska, Dorota; Białowolski, Piotr

2016-08-05

Although there is strong advocacy for uptake of both the arts and creative activities as determinants of individual health conditions, studies evaluating causal influence of attendance at cultural events on population health using individual population data on health are scarce. If available, results are often only of an associative nature. In this light, this study investigated causative impact of attendance at cultural events on self-reported and physical health in the Polish population. Four recent waves (2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015) of the biennial longitudinal Polish household panel study, Social Diagnosis, were analysed. The data, representative for the Polish population aged over 16, with respect to age, gender, classes of place of residence and NUTS 2 regions, were collected from self-report questionnaires. Causative influence of cultural attendance on population health was established using longitudinal population representative data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity of individuals and to mitigate issues caused by omitted variables, a panel data model with a fixed effects estimator was applied. The endogeneity problem (those who enjoy good health are more likely to participate in cultural activities more frequently) was circumvented by application of instrumental variables. Results confirmed positive association between cultural attendance and self-reported health. However, in contrast to the often suggested positive causative relationship, such a link was not confirmed by the study. Additionally, no evidence was found to corroborate a positive impact from cultural attendance on physical health. Both findings were substantiated by augmentation in the longitudinal perspective and causal link. We showed the relation between attendance at cultural events and self-reported health could only be confirmed as associational. Therefore, this study provided little justification to encourage use of passive cultural participation as a measure of health promotion (improvement). Our study did not confirm any identifiable benefit to physical health from passive participation in culture. Future research should investigate the causative influence of active participation in creative activities on health outcomes as, in contrast to passive attendance, it may be influential.

Accounting for Unobserved Time-Varying Quality in Recreation Demand: An Application to a Sonoran Desert Wilderness

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental variables can be important factors in recreation demand. Analysts wishing to quantify environmental quality impacts face the difficult issue of isolating them from unobserved variables. Quality changes may occur in space, varying between sites, or in time, varying b...

Dynamical Cluster-decay Model (DCM) applied to 9Li+208Pb reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Arshdeep; Hemdeep; Kaushal, Pooja; Behera, Bivash R.; Gupta, Raj K.

2017-10-01

The decay mechanism of 217At* formed in 9Li+208Pb reaction is studied within the dynamical cluster-decay model (DCM) at various center-of-mass energies. The aim is to see the behavior of a light neutron-rich radioactive beam on a doubly-magic target nucleus for the (total) fusion cross section σfus and the individual decay channel cross sections. Experimentally, only the isotopic yield of heavy mass residues * 211- 214At [equivalently, the light-particles (LPs) evaporation residue cross sections σxn for x = 3- 6 neutrons emission] are measured, with the fusion-fission (ff) component σff taken zero. For a fixed neck-length parameter ΔR, the only parameter in the DCM, we are able to fit σfus =∑x=16σxn almost exactly for 9Li on 208Pb at all E c . m .'s. However, the observed individual decay channels (3n-6n) are very poorly fitted, with unobserved channels (1n, 2n) and σff strongly over-estimated. Different ΔR values, meaning thereby different reaction time scales, are required to fit individually both the observed and unobserved evaporation residue channels (1n-6n) and σff, but then the compound nucleus (CN) contribution σCN is very small (< 1%), and the non-compound nucleus (nCN) decay cross section σnCN contributes the most towards total σfus (=σCN +σnCN). Thus, the 9Li induced reaction on doubly-magic 208Pb is more of a quasi-fission-like nCN decay, which is further analyzed in terms of the statistical CN formation probability PCN and CN survival probability Psurv. For the reaction under study, PCN < < 1 and Psurv → 1, in particular at above barrier energies.

An Integrated Account of Generalization across Objects and Features

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemp, Charles; Shafto, Patrick; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2012-01-01

Humans routinely make inductive generalizations about unobserved features of objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning often focus on inferences about a single object or feature: accounts of causal reasoning often focus on a single object with one or more unobserved features, and accounts of property induction often focus on a single…

"You Could Call It Magic": What Parents and Siblings Tell Preschoolers about Unobservable Entities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canfield, Caitlin F.; Ganea, Patricia A.

2014-01-01

How can we explain children's understanding of the unseen world? Young children are generally able to distinguish between real unobservable entities and fantastical ones, but they attribute different characteristics to and show less confidence in their decisions about fantastical entities generally endorsed by adults, such as Santa Claus. One…

Work environment satisfaction and employee health: panel evidence from Denmark, France and Spain, 1994-2001.

PubMed

Datta Gupta, Nabanita; Kristensen, Nicolai

2008-02-01

This paper investigates whether a satisfactory work environment can promote employee health even after controlling for socioeconomic status and life style factors. A dynamic panel model of health is estimated from worker samples from Denmark, France and Spain, employing both self-assessed general health and the presence of a functional limitation. In all three countries and for both types of health measures, a good perceived work environment is found to be a highly significant determinant of worker health even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and minimizing reverse causality. The marginal effect is, however, larger in France and Denmark than in Spain. Several potential explanations for this finding are discussed. Further, a satisfactory working environment is found to be at least as important for employee health as socioeconomic status. Thus, investing in giving workers a satisfying work environment could be a low-cost way of improving employee health.

Impact of e-detailing on the number of new prescriptions.

PubMed

Gönül, Füsun F; Carter, Franklin J

2010-06-01

The recent trend of e-detailing in the pharmaceutical industry aims to increase the effectiveness of promotion of prescription products to physicians at a less expensive way than traditional detailing. In the proposed promotion response model, the effect of e-detailing on new prescriptions is accounted for in the presence of traditional face-to-face detailing and a host of product-specific factors. The model is calibrated on 21 ethical pharmaceutical products in six diverse therapeutic categories over a period of two years using datasets from two industrial sources. We estimate our model once at the aggregate level and once using a fixed-effects methodology to account for unobserved heterogeneity across products. We find that prescription product (Rx) manufacturers appear to benefit from increasing both e-detailing and traditional detailing. Our findings also lead us to conclude that there is room for improving the synergy between the two types of detailing.

Space-Time Data fusion for Remote Sensing Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braverman, Amy; Nguyen, H.; Cressie, N.

2011-01-01

NASA has been collecting massive amounts of remote sensing data about Earth's systems for more than a decade. Missions are selected to be complementary in quantities measured, retrieval techniques, and sampling characteristics, so these datasets are highly synergistic. To fully exploit this, a rigorous methodology for combining data with heterogeneous sampling characteristics is required. For scientific purposes, the methodology must also provide quantitative measures of uncertainty that propagate input-data uncertainty appropriately. We view this as a statistical inference problem. The true but notdirectly- observed quantities form a vector-valued field continuous in space and time. Our goal is to infer those true values or some function of them, and provide to uncertainty quantification for those inferences. We use a spatiotemporal statistical model that relates the unobserved quantities of interest at point-level to the spatially aggregated, observed data. We describe and illustrate our method using CO2 data from two NASA data sets.

The harder they fall? Sex and race/ethnic specific suicide rates in the U.S. foreclosure crisis.

PubMed

Houle, Jason N; Light, Michael T

2017-05-01

Previous work shows suicide rates increase during economic recessions, but little research has examined the extent to which the foreclosure crisis-a unique aspect of the Great Recession-has contributed to disparities in rising suicide rates by race and sex. We develop and test two competing hypotheses regarding the association between foreclosures and race by sex specific suicide rates. We link foreclosure data (RealtyTrac) and suicide data (CDC) from 174 metropolitan areas from 2005 to 2010 (1044 MSA-year observations) and find that-net of time invariant unobserved between-metro area differences, national time trends, and time-varying confounders-a rise in the foreclosure rate is associated with a marginal increase in suicide, but this main effect masks considerable heterogeneity across groups. The association is particularly strong for white males, and weaker or non-existent for other race by sex groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does sex education affect adolescent sexual behaviors and health?

PubMed

Sabia, Joseph J

2006-01-01

This study examines whether offering sex education to young teenagers affects several measures of adolescent sexual behavior and health: virginity status, contraceptive use, frequency of intercourse, likelihood of pregnancy, and probability of contracting a sexually transmitted disease. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I find that while sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, there is little evidence of a causal link after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity via fixed effects and instrumental variables. These findings suggest that those on each side of the ideological debate over sex education are, in a sense, both correct and mistaken. Opponents are correct in observing that sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, but are generally incorrect in interpreting this relationship causally. Proponents are generally correct in claiming that sex education does not encourage risky sexual activity, but are incorrect in asserting that investments in typical school-based sex education programs produce measurable health benefits.

Progress and Compliance in Alcohol Abuse Treatment*

PubMed Central

Lien, Hsien-Ming; Lu, Mingshan; Ma, Ching-To Albert; McGuire, Thomas G.

2009-01-01

Improving patient compliance with physicians’ treatment or prescription recommendations is an important goal in medical practice. We examine the relationship between treatment progress and patient compliance. We hypothesize that patients balance expected benefits and costs during a treatment episode when deciding on compliance; a patient is more likely to comply if doing so results in an expected gain in health benefit. We use a unique data set of outpatient alcohol abuse treatment to identify a relationship between treatment progress and compliance. Treatment progress is measured by the clinician’s comments after each attended visit. Compliance is measured by a client attending a scheduled appointment, and continuing with treatment. We find that a patient who is making progress is less likely to drop out of treatment. We find no evidence that treatment progress raises the likelihood of a patient attending the next scheduled visit. Our results are robust to unobserved patient heterogeneity. PMID:20031241

Disentangling Disadvantage: Can We Distinguish Good Teaching from Classroom Composition?

PubMed

Zamarro, Gema; Engberg, John; Saavedra, Juan Esteban; Steele, Jennifer

This paper investigates the use of teacher value-added estimates to assess the distribution of effective teaching across students of varying socioeconomic disadvantage in the presence of classroom composition effects. We examine, via simulations, how accurately commonly-used teacher-value added estimators recover the rank correlation between true and estimated teacher effects and a parameter representing the distribution of effective teaching. We consider various scenarios of teacher assignment, within-teacher variability in classroom composition, importance of classroom composition effects, and presence of student unobserved heterogeneity. No single model recovers without bias estimates of the distribution parameter in all the scenarios we consider. Models that rank teacher effectiveness most accurately do not necessarily recover distribution parameter estimates with less bias. Since true teacher sorting in real data is seldom known, we recommend that analysts incorporate contextual information into their decisions about model choice and we offer some guidance on how to do so.

Evaluating the inverse reasoning account of object discovery.

PubMed

Carroll, Christopher D; Kemp, Charles

2015-06-01

People routinely make inferences about unobserved objects. A hotel guest with welts on his arms, for example, will often worry about bed bugs. The discovery of unobserved objects almost always involves a backward inference from some observed effects (e.g., welts) to unobserved causes (e.g., bed bugs). The inverse reasoning account, which is typically formalized as Bayesian inference, posits that the strength of a backward inference is closely connected to the strength of the corresponding forward inference from the unobserved causes to the observed effects. We evaluated the inverse reasoning account of object discovery in three experiments where participants were asked to discover the unobserved "attractors" and "repellers" that controlled a "particle" moving within an arena. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that participants often failed to provide the best explanations for various particle motions, even when the best explanations were simple and when participants enthusiastically endorsed these explanations when presented with them. This failure demonstrates that object discovery is critically dependent on the processes that support hypothesis generation-processes that the inverse reasoning account does not explain. Experiment 3 demonstrated that people sometimes generate explanations that are invalid even according to their own forward inferences, suggesting that the psychological processes that support forward and backward inference are less intertwined than the inverse reasoning account suggests. The experimental findings support an alternative account of object discovery in which people rely on heuristics to generate possible explanations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining driver behavior at the onset of yellow in a traffic simulator environment: Comparisons between random parameters and latent class logit models.

PubMed

Savolainen, Peter T

2016-11-01

This study involves an examination of driver behavior at the onset of a yellow signal indication. Behavioral data were obtained from a driving simulator study that was conducted through the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS) laboratory at the University of Iowa. These data were drawn from a series of events during which study participants drove through a series of intersections where the traffic signals changed from the green to yellow phase. The resulting dataset provides potential insights into how driver behavior is affected by distracted driving through an experimental design that alternated handheld, headset, and hands-free cell phone use with "normal" baseline driving events. The results of the study show that male drivers ages 18-45 were more likely to stop. Participants were also more likely to stop as they became more familiar with the simulator environment. Cell phone use was found to some influence on driver behavior in this setting, though the effects varied significantly across individuals. The study also demonstrates two methodological approaches for dealing with unobserved heterogeneity across drivers. These include random parameters and latent class logit models, each of which analyze the data as a panel. The results show each method to provide significantly better fit than a pooled, fixed parameter model. Differences in terms of the context of these two approaches are discussed, providing important insights as to the differences between these modeling frameworks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of Non-Cancer Effects, Especially Circulatory and Ocular Diseases1

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.

2014-01-01

There is a well-established association between high doses (> 5 Gy) of ionizing radiation exposure and damage to the heart and coronary arteries, although only recently have studies with high quality individual dosimetry been conducted that would enable quantification of this risk adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy. The association between lower dose exposures and late occurring circulatory disease has only recently begun to emerge in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in various occupationally-exposed cohorts, and is still controversial. Excess relative risks per unit dose in moderate and low dose epidemiological studies are somewhat variable, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. Radiation doses of 1 Gy or more are associated with increased risk of posterior subcapsular cataract. Accumulating evidence from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, Chernobyl liquidators, US astronauts and various other exposed groups suggest that cortical cataracts may also be associated with ionizing radiation, although there is little evidence that nuclear cataracts are radiogenic. The dose response appears to be linear, although modest thresholds (of no more than about 0.6 Gy) cannot be ruled out. A variety of other non-malignant effects have been observed after moderate/low dose exposure in various groups, in particular respiratory and digestive disease and central nervous system (and in particular neuro-cognitive) damage. However, because these are generally only observed in isolated groups, or because the evidence is excessively heterogeneous, these associations must be treated with caution. PMID:23903347

Can Walking or Biking to Work Really Make a Difference? Compact Development, Observed Commuter Choice and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Wojan, Timothy R; Hamrick, Karen S

2015-01-01

Promoting active commuting is viewed as one strategy to increase physical activity and improve the energy balance of more sedentary individuals thereby improving health outcomes. However, the potential effectiveness of promotion policies may be seriously undermined by the endogenous choice of commute mode. Policy to promote active commuting will be most effective if it can be demonstrated that 1) those in compact cities do not necessarily have a preference for more physical activity, and 2) that current active commuting is not explained by unobserved characteristics that may be the true source of a lower body mass index (BMI). Daily time-use diaries are used in combination with geographical characteristics of where respondents live and work to test 1) whether residents of more compact settlements are characterized by higher activity levels; and 2) whether residents of more compact settlements are more likely to bike or walk to work. An endogenous treatment model of active commuting allows testing whether reductions in BMI associated with walking or biking to work are in fact attributable to that activity or are more strongly associated with unobserved characteristics of these active commuters. The analysis of general activity levels confirms that residents of more compact cities do not expend more energy than residents of more sprawling cities, indicating that those in compact cities do not necessarily have a preference for more physical activity. The endogenous treatment model is consistent with walking or biking to work having an independent effect on BMI, as unobserved factors that contribute to a higher likelihood of active commuting are not associated with lower BMI. Despite evidence that more compact settlement patterns enable active commuting, only a small share of workers in these areas choose to walk or bike to work. In general, the activity level of residents in more compact cities and residents in more sprawling areas is very similar. But, there is a robust association between active commuting and lower body mass index that is not explained by unobserved attributes or preferences suggests that policies to promote active commuting may be effective. In particular, active commuting has a greater effect on BMI. Consequently, compact settlement appears to be an effective infrastructure for promoting more active lifestyles. The policy challenge is finding ways to ensure that this infrastructure is more widely utilized.

Can Walking or Biking to Work Really Make a Difference? Compact Development, Observed Commuter Choice and Body Mass Index

PubMed Central

Wojan, Timothy R.; Hamrick, Karen S.

2015-01-01

Objectives Promoting active commuting is viewed as one strategy to increase physical activity and improve the energy balance of more sedentary individuals thereby improving health outcomes. However, the potential effectiveness of promotion policies may be seriously undermined by the endogenous choice of commute mode. Policy to promote active commuting will be most effective if it can be demonstrated that 1) those in compact cities do not necessarily have a preference for more physical activity, and 2) that current active commuting is not explained by unobserved characteristics that may be the true source of a lower body mass index (BMI). Methods Daily time-use diaries are used in combination with geographical characteristics of where respondents live and work to test 1) whether residents of more compact settlements are characterized by higher activity levels; and 2) whether residents of more compact settlements are more likely to bike or walk to work. An endogenous treatment model of active commuting allows testing whether reductions in BMI associated with walking or biking to work are in fact attributable to that activity or are more strongly associated with unobserved characteristics of these active commuters. Results The analysis of general activity levels confirms that residents of more compact cities do not expend more energy than residents of more sprawling cities, indicating that those in compact cities do not necessarily have a preference for more physical activity. The endogenous treatment model is consistent with walking or biking to work having an independent effect on BMI, as unobserved factors that contribute to a higher likelihood of active commuting are not associated with lower BMI. Conclusions Despite evidence that more compact settlement patterns enable active commuting, only a small share of workers in these areas choose to walk or bike to work. In general, the activity level of residents in more compact cities and residents in more sprawling areas is very similar. But, there is a robust association between active commuting and lower body mass index that is not explained by unobserved attributes or preferences suggests that policies to promote active commuting may be effective. In particular, active commuting has a greater effect on BMI. Consequently, compact settlement appears to be an effective infrastructure for promoting more active lifestyles. The policy challenge is finding ways to ensure that this infrastructure is more widely utilized. PMID:26154176

Endogenous information, adverse selection, and prevention: Implications for genetic testing policy.

PubMed

Peter, Richard; Richter, Andreas; Thistle, Paul

2017-09-01

We examine public policy toward the use of genetic information by insurers. Individuals engage in unobservable primary prevention and have access to different prevention technologies. Thus, insurance markets are affected by moral hazard and adverse selection. Individuals can choose to take a genetic test to acquire information about their prevention technology. Information has positive decision-making value, that is, individuals may adjust their behavior based on the result of the test. However, testing also exposes individuals to uncertainty over the available insurance contract, so-called classification risk, which lowers the value of information. In our analysis we distinguish between four different policy regimes, determine the value of information under each regime and associated equilibrium outcomes on the insurance market. We show that the policy regimes can be Pareto ranked, with a duty to disclose being the preferred regime and an information ban the least preferred one. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of family member migration on education and work among nonmigrant youth in Mexico.

PubMed

Halpern-Manners, Andrew

2011-02-01

While academic and policy circles have given much attention to the assimilatory experiences of Mexican immigrants in the United States, less is known about those who stay behind-an especially unfortunate oversight given the increasing number of Mexican youth with migrant family members. Of the studies on this topic, most have sought to identify the effect that migration has on youths' migratory and educational aspirations, often using qualitative methods in individual sending communities. The present article supplements this research in two ways: (1) in addition to assessing educational outcomes, the scope of the analysis is expanded to include nonmigrant' interaction with another homeland institution of upward mobility: the labor market; and (2) using a large demographic data set, statistical techniques are employed to adjust for unobserved selectivity into the migrant family-member population, thus accounting for a potentially serious source of bias. The results suggest that youth in migrant-sending families are less likely to complete the educational transitions leading up to postsecondary school and have a lower probability of participating in the local economy. The results also indicate that unobserved factors play a "nonignorable" role in sorting youth into migrant and nonmigrant families.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics.

PubMed

Manrique, Pedro D; Johnson, Neil F

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Johnson, Neil F.

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Migration and Development: A Theoretical Perspective 1

PubMed Central

De Haas, Hein

2010-01-01

The debate on migration and development has swung back and forth like a pendulum, from developmentalist optimism in the 1950s and 1960s, to neo‐Marxist pessimism over the 1970s and 1980s, towards more optimistic views in the 1990s and 2000s. This paper argues how such discursive shifts in the migration and development debate should be primarily seen as part of more general paradigm shifts in social and development theory. However, the classical opposition between pessimistic and optimistic views is challenged by empirical evidence pointing to the heterogeneity of migration impacts. By integrating and amending insights from the new economics of labor migration, livelihood perspectives in development studies and transnational perspectives in migration studies – which share several though as yet unobserved conceptual parallels – this paper elaborates the contours of a conceptual framework that simultaneously integrates agency and structure perspectives and is therefore able to account for the heterogeneous nature of migration‐development interactions. The resulting perspective reveals the naivety of recent views celebrating migration as self‐help development “from below”. These views are largely ideologically driven and shift the attention away from structural constraints and the vital role of states in shaping favorable conditions for positive development impacts of migration to occur. PMID:26900199

Estimating mono- and bi-phasic regression parameters using a mixture piecewise linear Bayesian hierarchical model

PubMed Central

Zhao, Rui; Catalano, Paul; DeGruttola, Victor G.; Michor, Franziska

2017-01-01

The dynamics of tumor burden, secreted proteins or other biomarkers over time, is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of therapy and to predict outcomes for patients. Many methods have been proposed to investigate longitudinal trends to better characterize patients and to understand disease progression. However, most approaches assume a homogeneous patient population and a uniform response trajectory over time and across patients. Here, we present a mixture piecewise linear Bayesian hierarchical model, which takes into account both population heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships between biomarkers and time. Simulation results show that our method was able to classify subjects according to their patterns of treatment response with greater than 80% accuracy in the three scenarios tested. We then applied our model to a large randomized controlled phase III clinical trial of multiple myeloma patients. Analysis results suggest that the longitudinal tumor burden trajectories in multiple myeloma patients are heterogeneous and nonlinear, even among patients assigned to the same treatment cohort. In addition, between cohorts, there are distinct differences in terms of the regression parameters and the distributions among categories in the mixture. Those results imply that longitudinal data from clinical trials may harbor unobserved subgroups and nonlinear relationships; accounting for both may be important for analyzing longitudinal data. PMID:28723910

Inference in randomized trials with death and missingness.

PubMed

Wang, Chenguang; Scharfstein, Daniel O; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Girard, Timothy D; Yan, Ying

2017-06-01

In randomized studies involving severely ill patients, functional outcomes are often unobserved due to missed clinic visits, premature withdrawal, or death. It is well known that if these unobserved functional outcomes are not handled properly, biased treatment comparisons can be produced. In this article, we propose a procedure for comparing treatments that is based on a composite endpoint that combines information on both the functional outcome and survival. We further propose a missing data imputation scheme and sensitivity analysis strategy to handle the unobserved functional outcomes not due to death. Illustrations of the proposed method are given by analyzing data from a recent non-small cell lung cancer clinical trial and a recent trial of sedation interruption among mechanically ventilated patients. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Asymmetric information in health insurance: evidence from the National Medical Expenditure Survey.

PubMed

Cardon, J H; Hendel, I

2001-01-01

Adverse selection is perceived to be a major source of market failure in insurance markets. There is little empirical evidence on the extent of the problem. We estimate a structural model of health insurance and health care choices using data on single individuals from the NMES. A robust prediction of adverse-selection models is that riskier types buy more coverage and, on average, end up using more care. We test for unobservables linking health insurance status and health care consumption. We find no evidence of informational asymmetries.

Distance to Cannabis Shops and Age of Onset of Cannabis Use.

PubMed

Palali, Ali; van Ours, Jan C

2015-11-01

In the Netherlands, cannabis use is quasi-legalized. Small quantities of cannabis can be bought in cannabis shops. We investigate how the distance to the nearest cannabis shop affects the age of onset of cannabis use. We use a mixed proportional hazard rate framework to take account of observable as well as unobservable characteristics that influence the uptake of cannabis. We find that distance matters. Individuals who grow up within 20 km of a cannabis shop have a lower age of onset. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Digital Divide and Health Disparities in China: Evidence From a National Survey and Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Fang, Ya; Shi, Leiyu

2017-01-01

Background The digital divide persists despite broad accessibility of mobile tools. The relationship between the digital divide and health disparities reflects social status in terms of access to resources and health outcomes; however, data on this relationship are limited from developing countries such as China. Objective The aim of this study was to examine the current rates of access to mobile tools (Internet use and mobile phone ownership) among older Chinese individuals (aged ≥45 years), the predictors of access at individual and community levels, and the relationship between access to mobile tools and health outcomes. Methods We drew cross-sectional data from a national representative survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which focused on the older population (aged ≥45 years). We used two-level mixed logistic regression models, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity at the community and individual levels for data analysis. In addition to individual-level socioeconomic status (SES), we included community-level resources such as neighborhood amenities, health care facilities, and community organizations. Health outcomes were measured by self-reported health and absence of disability based on validated scales. Results Among the 18,215 participants, 6.51% had used the Internet in the past month, and 83% owned a mobile phone. In the multivariate models, Internet use was strongly associated with SES, rural or urban residence, neighborhood amenities, community resources, and geographic region. Mobile phone ownership was strongly associated with SES and rural/urban residence but not so much with neighborhood amenities and community resources. Internet use was a significant predictor of self-reported health status, and mobile phone ownership was significantly associated with having disability even after controlling for potential confounders at the individual and community levels. Conclusions This study is one of the first to examine digital divide and its relationship with health disparities in China. The data showed a significant digital divide in China, especially in the older population. Internet access is still limited to people with higher SES; however, the mobile phone has been adopted by the general population. The digital divide is associated with not only individual SES but also community resources. Future electronic health (eHealth) programs need to consider the accessibility of mobile tools and develop culturally appropriate programs for various social groups. PMID:28893724

Estimating state-transition probabilities for unobservable states using capture-recapture/resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2002-01-01

Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.

Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi; Zhou, Shiyong

2017-07-01

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe and analyze the clustering behavior of seismicity. Instead of regarding large earthquakes as point sources, the finite-source ETAS model treats them as ruptures that extend in space. Each earthquake rupture consists of many patches, and each patch triggers its own aftershocks isotropically. We design an iterative algorithm to invert the unobserved fault geometry based on the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to analyze the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog during 1964-2014. We take six great earthquakes with magnitudes >7.5 after 1980 as finite sources and reconstruct the aftershock productivity patterns on each rupture surface. Comparing results from the point-source ETAS model, we find the following: (1) the finite-source model improves the data fitting; (2) direct aftershock productivity is heterogeneous on the rupture plane; (3) the triggering abilities of M5.4+ events are enhanced; (4) the background rate is higher in the off-fault region and lower in the on-fault region for the Tohoku earthquake, while high probabilities of direct aftershocks distribute all over the source region in the modified model; (5) the triggering abilities of five main shocks become 2-6 times higher after taking the rupture geometries into consideration; and (6) the trends of the cumulative background rate are similar in both models, indicating the same levels of detection ability for seismicity anomalies. Moreover, correlations between aftershock productivity and slip distributions imply that aftershocks within rupture faults are adjustments to coseismic stress changes due to slip heterogeneity.

Identification of Successive ``Unobservable'' Cyber Data Attacks in Power Systems Through Matrix Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Pengzhi; Wang, Meng; Chow, Joe H.; Ghiocel, Scott G.; Fardanesh, Bruce; Stefopoulos, George; Razanousky, Michael P.

2016-11-01

This paper presents a new framework of identifying a series of cyber data attacks on power system synchrophasor measurements. We focus on detecting "unobservable" cyber data attacks that cannot be detected by any existing method that purely relies on measurements received at one time instant. Leveraging the approximate low-rank property of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data, we formulate the identification problem of successive unobservable cyber attacks as a matrix decomposition problem of a low-rank matrix plus a transformed column-sparse matrix. We propose a convex-optimization-based method and provide its theoretical guarantee in the data identification. Numerical experiments on actual PMU data from the Central New York power system and synthetic data are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Effects of measurement unobservability on neural extended Kalman filter tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubberud, Stephen C.; Kramer, Kathleen A.

2009-05-01

An important component of tracking fusion systems is the ability to fuse various sensors into a coherent picture of the scene. When multiple sensor systems are being used in an operational setting, the types of data vary. A significant but often overlooked concern of multiple sensors is the incorporation of measurements that are unobservable. An unobservable measurement is one that may provide information about the state, but cannot recreate a full target state. A line of bearing measurement, for example, cannot provide complete position information. Often, such measurements come from passive sensors such as a passive sonar array or an electronic surveillance measure (ESM) system. Unobservable measurements will, over time, result in the measurement uncertainty to grow without bound. While some tracking implementations have triggers to protect against the detrimental effects, many maneuver tracking algorithms avoid discussing this implementation issue. One maneuver tracking technique is the neural extended Kalman filter (NEKF). The NEKF is an adaptive estimation algorithm that estimates the target track as it trains a neural network on line to reduce the error between the a priori target motion model and the actual target dynamics. The weights of neural network are trained in a similar method to the state estimation/parameter estimation Kalman filter techniques. The NEKF has been shown to improve target tracking accuracy through maneuvers and has been use to predict target behavior using the new model that consists of the a priori model and the neural network. The key to the on-line adaptation of the NEKF is the fact that the neural network is trained using the same residuals as the Kalman filter for the tracker. The neural network weights are treated as augmented states to the target track. Through the state-coupling function, the weights are coupled to the target states. Thus, if the measurements cause the states of the target track to be unobservable, then the weights of the neural network have unobservable modes as well. In recent analysis, the NEKF was shown to have a significantly larger growth in the eigenvalues of the error covariance matrix than the standard EKF tracker when the measurements were purely bearings-only. This caused detrimental effects to the ability of the NEKF to model the target dynamics. In this work, the analysis is expanded to determine the detrimental effects of bearings-only measurements of various uncertainties on the performance of the NEKF when these unobservable measurements are interlaced with completely observable measurements. This analysis provides the ability to put implementation limitations on the NEKF when bearings-only sensors are present.

Nonassociativity, supersymmetry, and hidden variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dzhunushaliev, Vladimir

2008-04-15

It is shown that the supersymmetric quantum mechanics has an octonionic generalization. The generalization is based on the inclusion of quaternions into octonions. The elements from the coset octonions/quaternions are unobservables because they cannot be considered as quantum operators as a consequence of their nonassociative properties. The idea that the octonionic generalization of the supersymmetric quantum mechanics describes an observable particle formed with unobservable ''particles'' is presented.

Emergence of Persistent Infection due to Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Vidit; Moitra, Promit; Sinha, Sudeshna

2017-02-01

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual. We investigate the persistence of contagion qualitatively and quantitatively, under increasing heterogeneity in the partitioning of the population into different disease compartments, as well as increasing heterogeneity in the phases of the disease among individuals within a compartment. We observe that when the initial population is uniform, consisting of individuals at the same stage of disease progression, infection arising from a contagious seed does not persist. However when the initial population consists of randomly distributed refractory and susceptible individuals, a single source of infection can lead to sustained infection in the population, as heterogeneity facilitates the de-synchronization of the phases in the disease cycle of the individuals. We also show how the average size of the window of persistence of infection depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the initial composition of the population. In particular, we show that the infection eventually dies out when the entire initial population is susceptible, while even a few susceptibles among an heterogeneous refractory population gives rise to a large persistent infected set.

Scale of reference bias and the evolution of health.

PubMed

Groot, Wim

2003-09-01

The analysis of subjective measures of well-being-such as self-reports by individuals about their health status is frequently hampered by the problem of scale of reference bias. A particular form of scale of reference bias is age norming. In this study we corrected for scale of reference bias by allowing for individual specific effects in an equation on subjective health. A random effects ordered response model was used to analyze scale of reference bias in self-reported health measures. The results indicate that if we do not control for unobservable individual specific effects, the response to a subjective health state measure suffers from age norming. Age norming can be controlled for by a random effects estimation technique using longitudinal data. Further, estimates are presented on the rate of depreciation of health. Finally, simulations of life expectancy indicate that the estimated model provides a reasonably good fit of the true life expectancy.

Species richness and occupancy estimation in communities subject to temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, M.; Dorazio, R.M.

2009-01-01

Species richness is the most common biodiversity metric, although typically some species remain unobserved. Therefore, estimates of species richness and related quantities should account for imperfect detectability. Community dynamics can often be represented as superposition of species-specific phenologies (e. g., in taxa with well-defined flight [insects], activity [rodents], or vegetation periods [plants]). We develop a model for such predictably open communities wherein species richness is expressed as the sum over observed and unobserved species of estimated species-specific and site-specific occurrence indicators and where seasonal occurrence is modeled as a species-specific function of time. Our model is a multispecies extension of a multistate model with one unobservable state and represents a parsimonious way of dealing with a widespread form of 'temporary emigration.'' For illustration we use Swiss butterfly monitoring data collected under a robust design (RD); species were recorded on 13 transects during two secondary periods within <= 7 primary sampling periods. We compare estimates with those under a variation of the model applied to standard data, where secondary samples are pooled. The latter model yielded unrealistically high estimates of total community size of 274 species. In contrast, estimates were similar under models applied to RD data with constant (122) or seasonally varying (126) detectability for each species, but the former was more parsimonious and therefore used for inference. Per transect, 6 44 (mean 21.1) species were detected. Species richness estimates averaged 29.3; therefore only 71% (range 32-92%) of all species present were ever detected. In any primary period, 0.4-5.6 species present were overlooked. Detectability varied by species and averaged 0.88 per primary sampling period. Our modeling framework is extremely flexible; extensions such as covariates for the occurrence or detectability of individual species are easy. It should be useful for communities with a predictable form of temporary emigration where rigorous estimation of community metrics has proved challenging so far.

Dispersal and individual quality in a long lived species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

The idea of differences in individual quality has been put forward in numerous long-term studies in long-lived species to explain differences in lifetime production among individuals. Despite the important role of individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demography, population dynamics and life history theory, the idea of 'individual quality' is elusive. It is sometimes assumed to be a static or dynamic individual characteristic. When considered as a dynamic trait, it is sometimes assumed to vary deterministically or stochastically, or to be confounded with the characteristics of the habitat. We addressed heterogeneity in reproductive performance among individuals established in higher-quality habitat in a long-lived seabird species. We used approaches to statistical inference based on individual random effects permitting quantification of heterogeneity in populations and assessment of individual variation from the population mean. We found evidence of heterogeneity in breeding probability, not success probability. We assessed the influence of dispersal on individual reproductive potential. Dispersal is likely to be destabilizing in species with high site and mate fidelity. We detected heterogeneity after dispersal, not before. Individuals may perform well regardless of quality before destabilization, including those that recruited in higher-quality habitat by chance, but only higher-quality individuals may be able to overcome the consequences of dispersal. Importantly, results differed when accounting for individual heterogeneity (an increase in mean breeding probability when individuals dispersed), or not (a decrease in mean breeding probability). In the latter case, the decrease in mean breeding probability may result from a substantial decrease in breeding probability in a few individuals and a slight increase in others. In other words, the pattern observed at the population mean level may not reflect what happens in the majority of individuals.

Heterogeneous game resource distributions promote cooperation in spatial prisoner's dilemma game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Guang-Hai; Wang, Zhen; Yang, Yan-Cun; Tian, Sheng-Wen; Yue, Jun

2018-01-01

In social networks, individual abilities to establish interactions are always heterogeneous and independent of the number of topological neighbors. We here study the influence of heterogeneous distributions of abilities on the evolution of individual cooperation in the spatial prisoner's dilemma game. First, we introduced a prisoner's dilemma game, taking into account individual heterogeneous abilities to establish games, which are determined by the owned game resources. Second, we studied three types of game resource distributions that follow the power-law property. Simulation results show that the heterogeneous distribution of individual game resources can promote cooperation effectively, and the heterogeneous level of resource distributions has a positive influence on the maintenance of cooperation. Extensive analysis shows that cooperators with large resource capacities can foster cooperator clusters around themselves. Furthermore, when the temptation to defect is high, cooperator clusters in which the central pure cooperators have larger game resource capacities are more stable than other cooperator clusters.

The consequences of unemployment on diet composition and purchase behaviour: a longitudinal study from Denmark.

PubMed

Smed, Sinne; Tetens, Inge; Bøker Lund, Thomas; Holm, Lotte; Ljungdalh Nielsen, Annemette

2018-02-01

To explore and describe quantitatively the effect over time of unemployment on food purchase behaviour and diet composition. Longitudinal data from 2008-2012, with monthly food purchase data aligned with register data on unemployment measured as a dichotomous indicator as well as a trend accounting for the duration. A household panel which registers daily food purchases combined with detailed nutritional information and registration of the duration of unemployment at individual level. The structure of the data set facilitates the detection of effects or associations between duration of unemployment and diet composition, purchase behaviour in terms of food expenditure, and share of food purchased on offer and in discounters while controlling for important confounding factors. Danish households of working age (n 3440) adjusted to household equivalents. We use fixed-effects econometric methods to control for unobserved heterogeneity. In the short run, unemployment led to substitution in favour of discount stores and increases in food expenditure and in consumption of saturated fat, total fat and protein due to increased consumption of animal-based foods. In the medium run food expenditure declined together with consumption of fresh animal-based foods and saturated fat, total fat and protein. In the even longer run these nutrients were substituted by carbohydrates and added sugar. Unemployment has a substantial influence on diet composition, but effects vary with duration of the unemployment period, which may have potential health implications. This ought to be taken into consideration in evaluations of existing reforms and in future reforms of welfare systems.

Single-vehicle crashes along rural mountainous highways in Malaysia: An application of random parameters negative binomial model.

PubMed

Rusli, Rusdi; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Voon, Wong Shaw

2017-05-01

Mountainous highways generally associate with complex driving environment because of constrained road geometries, limited cross-section elements, inappropriate roadside features, and adverse weather conditions. As a result, single-vehicle (SV) crashes are overrepresented along mountainous roads, particularly in developing countries, but little attention is known about the roadway geometric, traffic and weather factors contributing to these SV crashes. As such, the main objective of the present study is to investigate SV crashes using detailed data obtained from a rigorous site survey and existing databases. The final dataset included a total of 56 variables representing road geometries including horizontal and vertical alignment, traffic characteristics, real-time weather condition, cross-sectional elements, roadside features, and spatial characteristics. To account for structured heterogeneities resulting from multiple observations within a site and other unobserved heterogeneities, the study applied a random parameters negative binomial model. Results suggest that rainfall during the crash is positively associated with SV crashes, but real-time visibility is negatively associated. The presence of a road shoulder, particularly a bitumen shoulder or wider shoulders, along mountainous highways is associated with less SV crashes. While speeding along downgrade slopes increases the likelihood of SV crashes, proper delineation decreases the likelihood. Findings of this study have significant implications for designing safer highways in mountainous areas, particularly in the context of a developing country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety performance of traffic phases and phase transitions in three phase traffic theory.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin

2015-12-01

Crash risk prediction models were developed to link safety to various phases and phase transitions defined by the three phase traffic theory. Results of the Bayesian conditional logit analysis showed that different traffic states differed distinctly with respect to safety performance. The random-parameter logit approach was utilized to account for the heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors. The Bayesian inference approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used for the estimation of the random-parameter logit model. The proposed approach increased the prediction performance of the crash risk models as compared with the conventional logit model. The three phase traffic theory can help us better understand the mechanism of crash occurrences in various traffic states. The contributing factors to crash likelihood can be well explained by the mechanism of phase transitions. We further discovered that the free flow state can be divided into two sub-phases on the basis of safety performance, including a true free flow state in which the interactions between vehicles are minor, and a platooned traffic state in which bunched vehicles travel in successions. The results of this study suggest that a safety perspective can be added to the three phase traffic theory. The results also suggest that the heterogeneity between different traffic states should be considered when estimating the risks of crash occurrences on freeways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term disability trajectories in primary progressive MS patients: A latent class growth analysis.

PubMed

Signori, Alessio; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Hupperts, Raymond; Grand'Maison, Francois; Sola, Patrizia; Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva; Prat, Alexandre; Girard, Marc; Duquette, Pierre; Boz, Cavit; Grammond, Pierre; Terzi, Murat; Singhal, Bhim; Alroughani, Raed; Petersen, Thor; Ramo, Cristina; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Spitaleri, Daniele; Shaygannejad, Vahid; Butzkueven, Helmut; Kalincik, Tomas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Slee, Mark; Fernandez Bolaños, Ricardo; Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis; Pucci, Eugenio; Granella, Franco; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Iuliano, Gerardo; Hughes, Stella; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Taylor, Bruce; Verheul, Freek; Edite Rio, Maria; Amato, Maria Pia; Sajedi, Seyed Aidin; Majdinasab, Nastaran; Van Pesch, Vincent; Sormani, Maria Pia; Trojano, Maria

2018-04-01

Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild ( n = 143; 16.8%), moderate ( n = 378; 44.3%), or severe ( n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.

Survival Analysis of Faculty Retention and Promotion in the Social Sciences by Gender.

PubMed

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Cunha, Raphael C; Varbanov, Roumen A; Hoh, Yee Shwen; Knisley, Margaret L; Holmes, Mary Alice

2015-01-01

Recruitment and retention of talent is central to the research performance of universities. Existing research shows that, while men are more likely than women to be promoted at the different stages of the academic career, no such difference is found when it comes to faculty retention rates. Current research on faculty retention, however, focuses on careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). We extend this line of inquiry to the social sciences. We follow 2,218 tenure-track assistant professors hired since 1990 in seven social science disciplines at nineteen U.S. universities from time of hire to time of departure. We also track their time to promotion to associate and full professor. Using survival analysis, we examine gender differences in time to departure and time to promotion. Our methods account for censoring and unobserved heterogeneity, as well as effect heterogeneity across disciplines and cohorts. We find no statistically significant differences between genders in faculty retention. However, we do find that men are more likely to be granted tenure than women. When it comes to promotion to full professor, the results are less conclusive, as the effect of gender is sensitive to model specification. The results corroborate previous findings about gender patterns in faculty retention and promotion. They suggest that advances have been made when it comes to gender equality in retention and promotion, but important differences still persist.

What Does Attending Early Childhood Program Mean for Child Health in India?

PubMed

Sarkar, Dipanwita; Sarkar, Jayanta

2017-11-01

The health impact of attending early childhood development programs in developing countries remains largely unknown. In this study, we focus on the health consequences of attending preschool programs in India. Using a unique longitudinal dataset, we allow for heterogeneity in the impact of preschool across the distribution of health outcomes while controlling for time-invariant unobservables. We detect unique temporal variation in the effect of preschool attendance - growth of preschool attendees is slower than non-attendees in various parts of the distributions of several anthropometric measures when evaluated in the early years between ages 1 and 5. This effect is likely to reverse in the longer term at age 8. The early years' adverse effect can be explained in part by over-attendance in the form of long daily hours, excessive attendance days, and early entry. The findings are insensitive to nutritional incentives like free meals provided in public schools. The growth-retarding effect remains robust for weight-for-age z-scores, implying that the impact of preschool attendance is not only heterogeneous, but differs across dimensions of health status. Our study highlights the need for strengthening the delivery of childhood programs in developing countries in order to prevent adverse health effects in the critical years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Beyond the trigger: The mental health consequences of in-home firearm access among children of gun owners.

PubMed

Kim, Jinho

2018-04-01

The high prevalence of household firearms in the U.S. has ignited a growing body of research seeking to understand its health consequences. While a large number of studies examine the impact of firearm availability on health risks of gun owners in the household, relatively little attention is given to whether and how in-home firearm access may shape psychological outcomes among children of gun owners. This study examined whether and how in-home firearm access is associated with adolescents' depressive symptoms. Given a strong social/cultural association between masculinity and gun possession as well as stark gender differences in perceptions of safety and attitudes toward firearms, this study also investigated whether this association differs for male and female adolescents. Participants were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) (n = 14,013). This study used random- and fixed-effects regression analyses as well as propensity-score matching models in order to reduce the chances of bias due to individual-level heterogeneity. The present study showed that gaining access to guns at home was significantly related to increased depressive symptoms among children of gun owners, even after accounting for both observed and unobserved individual characteristics. Both fixed-effects and propensity-score matching models yielded consistent results. In addition, the observed association between in-home firearm access and depression was more pronounced for female adolescents. Finally, this study found suggestive evidence that the perceptions of safety, especially about school (but not neighborhood), are an important mechanism linking in-home firearm access to adolescent depression. As a substantial proportion of U.S. adolescents reported in-home firearm access, the findings of this study suggest that scholars and policymakers must seriously consider mental as well as physical health consequences related to household access to firearms among children of gun owners. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship of Financial Pressures and Community Characteristics to Closure of Private Safety Net Clinics.

PubMed

Li, Suhui; Dor, Avi; Pines, Jesse M; Zocchi, Mark S; Hsia, Renee Y

2016-10-01

In order to better understand what threatens vulnerable populations' access to primary care, it is important to understand the factors associated with closing safety net clinics. This article examines how a clinic's financial position, productivity, and community characteristics are associated with its risk of closure. We examine patterns of closures among private-run primary care clinics (PCCs) in California between 2006 and 2012. We use a discrete-time proportional hazard model to assess relative hazard ratios of covariates, and a random-effect hazard model to adjust for unobserved heterogeneity among PCCs. We find that lower net income from patient care, smaller amount of government grants, and lower productivity were associated with significantly higher risk of PCC closure. We also find that federally qualified health centers and nonfederally qualified health centers generally faced the same risk factors of closure. These results underscore the critical role of financial incentives in the long-term viability of safety net clinics. © The Author(s) 2015.

`Been There Done That': Disentangling Option Value Effects from User Heterogeneity When Valuing Natural Resources with a Use Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

'Been there done that': disentangling option value effects from user heterogeneity when valuing natural resources with a use component.

PubMed

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

Differences in Mortality among Heroin, Cocaine, and Methamphetamine Users: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Liang, Li-Jung; Huang, David; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Hser, Yih-ing

2010-01-01

Studies examining differences in mortality among long-term drug users have been limited. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework that jointly models survival data using a Weibull proportional hazard model with frailty, and substance and alcohol data using mixed-effects models, to examine differences in mortality among heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine users from five long-term follow-up studies. The traditional approach to analyzing combined survival data from numerous studies assumes that the studies are homogeneous, thus the estimates may be biased due to unobserved heterogeneity among studies. Our approach allows us to structurally combine the data from different studies while accounting for correlation among subjects within each study. Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates the implementation of Bayesian analyses. Despite the complexity of the model, our approach is relatively straightforward to implement using WinBUGS. We demonstrate our joint modeling approach to the combined data and discuss the results from both approaches. PMID:21052518

Exploring the determinants of pedestrian-vehicle crash severity in New York City.

PubMed

Aziz, H M Abdul; Ukkusuri, Satish V; Hasan, Samiul

2013-01-01

Pedestrian-vehicle crashes remain a major concern in New York City due to high percentage of fatalities. This study develops random parameter logit models for explaining pedestrian injury severity levels of New York City accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in the population and across the boroughs. A log-likelihood ratio test for joint model suitability suggests that separate models for each of the boroughs should be estimated. Among many variables, road characteristics (e.g., number of lanes, grade, light condition, road surface, etc.), traffic attributes (e.g., presence of signal control, type of vehicle, etc.), and land use (e.g., parking facilities, commercial and industrial land use, etc.) are found to be statistically significant in the estimated model. The study also suggests that the set of counter measures should be different for different boroughs in the New York City and the priority ranks of countermeasures should be different as well. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Panel Data Analysis of the Relationships of Nursing Home Staffing Levels and Standards to Regulatory Deficiencies

PubMed Central

Kovner, Christine; Harrington, Charlene; Greene, William; Mezey, Mathy

2009-01-01

Objective To examine the relationships between nursing staffing levels and nursing home deficiencies. Methods This panel data analysis employed random-effect models that adjusted for unobserved, nursing home–specific heterogeneity over time. Data were obtained from California's long-term care annual cost report data and the Automated Certification and Licensing Administrative Information and Management Systems data from 1999 to 2003, linked with other secondary data sources. Results Both total nursing staffing and registered nurse (RN) staffing levels were negatively related to total deficiencies, quality of care deficiencies, and serious deficiencies that may cause harm or jeopardy to nursing home residents. Nursing homes that met the state staffing standard received fewer total deficiencies and quality of care deficiencies than nursing homes that failed to meet the standard. Meeting the state staffing standard was not related to receiving serious deficiencies. Conclusions Total nursing staffing and RN staffing levels were predictors of nursing home quality. Further research is needed on the effectiveness of state minimum staffing standards. PMID:19181692

Does grandchild care influence grandparents' self-rated health? Evidence from a fixed effects approach.

PubMed

Ates, Merih

2017-10-01

The present study aims to identify, whether and how supplementary grandchild care is causally related to grandparents' self-rated health (SRH). Based on longitudinal data drawn from the German Aging Survey (DEAS; 2008-2014), I compare the results of pooled OLS, pooled OLS with lagged dependant variables (POLS-LD), random and fixed effects (RE, FE) panel regression. The results show that there is a positive but small association between supplementary grandchild care and SRH in POLS, POLS-LD, and RE models. However, the fixed effects model shows that the intrapersonal change in grandchild care does not cause a change in grandparents' SRH. The FE findings indicate that supplementary grandchild care in Germany does not have a causal impact on grandparents' SRH, suggesting that models with between-variation components overestimate the influence of grandchild care on grandparents' health because they do not control for unobserved (time-constant) heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Race/Ethnicity, Poverty, Urban Stressors and Telomere Length in a Detroit Community-Based Sample

PubMed Central

Geronimus, Arline T.; Pearson, Jay A.; Linnenbringer, Erin; Schulz, Amy J.; Reyes, Angela G.; Epel, Elissa S.; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H.

2015-01-01

Residents of distressed urban areas suffer early aging-related disease and excess mortality. Using a community-based participatory research approach in a collaboration between social researchers and cellular biologists, we collected a unique data set of 239 black, white, or Mexican adults from a stratified, multi-stage probability sample of three Detroit neighborhoods. We drew venous blood and measured Telomere Length (TL), an indicator of stress-mediated biological aging, linking respondents’ TL to their community survey responses. We regressed TL on socioeconomic, psychosocial, neighborhood, and behavioral stressors, hypothesizing and finding an interaction between poverty and racial/ethnic group. Poor whites had shorter TL than nonpoor whites; poor and nonpoor blacks had equivalent TL; poor Mexicans had longer TL than nonpoor Mexicans. Findings suggest unobserved heterogeneity bias is an important threat to the validity of estimates of TL differences by race/ethnicity. They point to health impacts of social identity as contingent, the products of structurally-rooted biopsychosocial processes. PMID:25930147

Contractual Duration and Investment Incentives: Evidence from Large Scale Production Units in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fang; Feng, Shuyi; D'Haese, Marijke; Lu, Hualiang; Qu, Futian

2017-04-01

Large Scale Production Units have become important forces in the supply of agricultural commodities and agricultural modernization in China. Contractual duration in farmland transfer to Large Scale Production Units can be considered to reflect land tenure security. Theoretically, long-term tenancy contracts can encourage Large Scale Production Units to increase long-term investments by ensuring land rights stability or favoring access to credit. Using a unique Large Scale Production Units- and plot-level field survey dataset from Jiangsu and Jiangxi Province, this study aims to examine the effect of contractual duration on Large Scale Production Units' soil conservation behaviours. IV method is applied to take into account the endogeneity of contractual duration and unobserved household heterogeneity. Results indicate that farmland transfer contract duration significantly and positively affects land-improving investments. Policies aimed at improving transaction platforms and intermediary organizations in farmland transfer to facilitate Large Scale Production Units to access farmland with long-term tenancy contracts may therefore play an important role in improving soil quality and land productivity.

Race-Ethnicity, Poverty, Urban Stressors, and Telomere Length in a Detroit Community-based Sample.

PubMed

Geronimus, Arline T; Pearson, Jay A; Linnenbringer, Erin; Schulz, Amy J; Reyes, Angela G; Epel, Elissa S; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H

2015-06-01

Residents of distressed urban areas suffer early aging-related disease and excess mortality. Using a community-based participatory research approach in a collaboration between social researchers and cellular biologists, we collected a unique data set of 239 black, white, or Mexican adults from a stratified, multistage probability sample of three Detroit neighborhoods. We drew venous blood and measured telomere length (TL), an indicator of stress-mediated biological aging, linking respondents' TL to their community survey responses. We regressed TL on socioeconomic, psychosocial, neighborhood, and behavioral stressors, hypothesizing and finding an interaction between poverty and racial-ethnic group. Poor whites had shorter TL than nonpoor whites; poor and nonpoor blacks had equivalent TL; and poor Mexicans had longer TL than nonpoor Mexicans. Findings suggest unobserved heterogeneity bias is an important threat to the validity of estimates of TL differences by race-ethnicity. They point to health impacts of social identity as contingent, the products of structurally rooted biopsychosocial processes. © American Sociological Association 2015.

A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

PubMed

Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

2007-09-01

This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

Interactive Effects of in Utero Nutrition and Genetic Inheritance on Cognition: New Evidence Using Sibling Comparisons1

PubMed Central

Cook, C. Justin; Fletcher, Jason M.

2013-01-01

A large literature links early environments and later outcomes, such as cognition; however, little is known about the mechanisms. One potential mechanism is sensitivity to early environments that is moderated or amplified by the genotype. With this mechanism in mind, a complementary literature outside economics examines the interaction between genes and environments, but often problems of endogeneity and bias in estimation are uncorrected. A key issue in the literature is exploring environmental variation that is not exogenous, which is potentially problematic if there are gene-environment correlation or gene-gene interactions. Using sibling pairs with genetic data in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study we extend a previous, and widely cited, gene-environment study that explores an interaction between the FADS2 gene, which is associated with the processing of essential fatty acids related to cognitive development, and early life nutrition in explaining later-life IQ. Our base OLS findings suggest that individuals with specific FADS2 variants gain roughly 0.15 standard deviations in IQ for each standard deviation increase in birth weight, our measure of the early nutrition environment; while, individuals with other variants of FADS2 do not have a statistically significant association with early nutrition, implying the genotype is influencing the effects of environmental exposure. When including family-level fixed effects, however, the magnitude of the gene-environment interaction is reduced by half and statistical significance dissipates, implying the interaction between FADS2 and early nutrition in explaining later life IQ may in part be due to unobserved, family-level factors. The example has wider implications for the practice of investigating gene-environment interactions when the environmental exposure is not exogenous and robustness to unobserved variation in the genome is not controlled for in the analysis. PMID:24172871

Risk aversion and religious behaviour: Analysis using a sample of Danish twins.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare; Kiil, Astrid; Hvidt, Niels Christian

2017-08-01

Economics offers an analytical framework to consider human behaviour including religious behaviour. Within the realm of Expected Utility Theory, religious belief and activity could be interpreted as an insurance both for current life events and for afterlife rewards. Based on that framework, we would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern regards the problems of spurious correlations due to underlying omitted or unobservable characteristics shaping both religious activities and risk attitudes. This paper examines empirically the demand for religion by analysing the association between risk attitudes on the one hand, and church attandance and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes and religious behaviour is driven by the subgroup of individuals who believe in an afterlife. In addition, when re-analysing our results using panel data analyses which cancel out shared factors among twin pairs, we find that the correlation found between risk aversion and religious behaviour is no longer significant indicating that other factors might explain differences in religious behaviour. Caution is needed in the interpretation of our results as the insignificant association between risk aversion and religious behaviour in the panel data analyses potentially might be due to measurement error causing attenuation bias or lack of variation within twin pairs rather than the actual absence of an association. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Divorce, Separation, and Housing Changes: A Multiprocess Analysis of Longitudinal Data from England and Wales.

PubMed

Mikolai, Júlia; Kulu, Hill

2018-02-01

This study investigates the effect of marital and nonmarital separation on individuals' residential and housing trajectories. Using rich data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and applying multilevel competing-risks event history models, we analyze the risk of a move of single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women to different housing types. We distinguish moves due to separation from moves of separated people and account for unobserved codeterminants of moving and separation risks. Our analysis shows that many individuals move due to separation, as expected, but that the likelihood of moving is also relatively high among separated individuals. We find that separation has a long-term effect on individuals' residential careers. Separated women exhibit high moving risks regardless of whether they moved out of the joint home upon separation, whereas separated men who did not move out upon separation are less likely to move. Interestingly, separated women are most likely to move to terraced houses, whereas separated men are equally likely to move to flats (apartments) and terraced (row) houses, suggesting that family structure shapes moving patterns of separated individuals.

Heterogeneity of link weight and the evolution of cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, Manabu; Akiyama, Eizo

2016-04-01

In this paper, we investigate the effect of heterogeneity of link weight, heterogeneity of the frequency or amount of interactions among individuals, on the evolution of cooperation. Based on an analysis of the evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game on a weighted one-dimensional lattice network with intra-individual heterogeneity, we confirm that moderate level of link-weight heterogeneity can facilitate cooperation. Furthermore, we identify two key mechanisms by which link-weight heterogeneity promotes the evolution of cooperation: mechanisms for spread and maintenance of cooperation. We also derive the corresponding conditions under which the mechanisms can work through evolutionary dynamics.

Effects of soil nutrient heterogeneity on intraspecific competition in the invasive, clonal plant Alternanthera philoxeroides.

PubMed

Zhou, Jian; Dong, Bi-Cheng; Alpert, Peter; Li, Hong-Li; Zhang, Ming-Xiang; Lei, Guang-Chun; Yu, Fei-Hai

2012-03-01

Fine-scale, spatial heterogeneity in soil nutrient availability can increase the growth of individual plants, the productivity of plant communities and interspecific competition. If this is due to the ability of plants to concentrate their roots where nutrient levels are high, then nutrient heterogeneity should have little effect on intraspecific competition, especially when there are no genotypic differences between individuals in root plasticity. We tested this hypothesis in a widespread, clonal species in which individual plants are known to respond to nutrient heterogeneity. Plants derived from a single clone of Alternanthera philoxeroides were grown in the greenhouse at low or high density (four or 16 plants per 27·5 × 27·5-cm container) with homogeneous or heterogeneous availability of soil nutrients, keeping total nutrient availability per container constant. After 9 weeks, measurements of size, dry mass and morphology were taken. Plants grew more in the heterogeneous than in the homogeneous treatment, showing that heterogeneity promoted performance; they grew less in the high- than in the low-density treatment, showing that plants competed. There was no interactive effect of nutrient heterogeneity and plant density, supporting the hypothesis that heterogeneity does not affect intraspecific competition in the absence of genotypic differences in plasticity. Treatments did not affect morphological characteristics such as specific leaf area or root/shoot ratio. Results indicate that fine-scale, spatial heterogeneity in the availability of soil nutrients does not increase competition when plants are genetically identical, consistent with the suggestion that effects of heterogeneity on competition depend upon differences in plasticity between individuals. Heterogeneity is only likely to increase the spread of monoclonal, invasive populations such as that of A. philoxeroides in China.

Share capitalism and worker wellbeing.

PubMed

Bryson, Alex; Clark, Andrew E; Freeman, Richard B; Green, Colin P

2016-10-01

We show that worker wellbeing is determined not only by the amount of compensation workers receive but also by how compensation is determined. While previous theoretical and empirical work has often been preoccupied with individual performance-related pay, we find that the receipt of a range of group-performance schemes (profit shares, group bonuses and share ownership) is associated with higher job satisfaction. This holds conditional on wage levels, so that pay methods are associated with greater job satisfaction in addition to that coming from higher wages. We use a variety of methods to control for unobserved individual and job-specific characteristics. We suggest that half of the share-capitalism effect is accounted for by employees reciprocating for the "gift"; we also show that share capitalism helps dampen the negative wellbeing effects of what we typically think of as "bad" aspects of job quality.

Attitude control concepts for precision-pointing nonrigid spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Likins, P. W.

1974-01-01

Literal criteria are developed for the controllability and observability of general models of flexible spacecraft. Results are interpreted in special cases and in physical terms, permitting in some cases the identification of uncontrollable and unobservable states simply by examination of scalars composed of modal parameters and location matrices for sensors and actuators. A procedure is established for isolation of uncontrollable states, whereby sensor and actuator configurations assure that uncontrollable flexible mode states are also unobservable; in many applications such states can then be removed by coordinate truncation.

The impact of health plan report cards on managed care enrollment.

PubMed

Scanlo, Dennis P; Chernew, Michael; Mclaughlin, Catherine; Solon, Gary

2002-01-01

How does the release of health plan performance ratings influence employee health plan choice? A natural experiment at General Motors (GM) Corporation provides valuable evidence on this question. During the 1997 open enrollment period, GM disseminated a health plan report card for the first time. By comparing 1996 and 1997 enrollment patterns, our analysis estimates the impact of the report card information while accounting for fixed, unobserved plan traits. Results indicate that employees are less likely to enroll in plans requiring relatively high out-of-pocket contributions. Results with respect to report card ratings suggest that individuals avoid health plans with many below average ratings.

Optimal health insurance: the case of observable, severe illness.

PubMed

Chernew, M E; Encinosa, W E; Hirth, R A

2000-09-01

We explore optimal cost-sharing provisions for insurance contracts when individuals have observable, severe diseases with a discrete number of medically appropriate treatment options. Variation in preferences for alternative treatments is unobserved by the insurer and non-contractible. Interest in such situations is increasingly common, exemplified by disease carve-out programs and shared decision-making (SDM) tools. We demonstrate that optimal insurance charges a copay to patients choosing the high-cost treatment and provides consumers of the low-cost treatment a cash payment. A simulation of the effect of such a policy, based on prostate cancer, indicates a substantial reduction in moral hazard.

The Digital Divide and Health Disparities in China: Evidence From a National Survey and Policy Implications.

PubMed

Hong, Y Alicia; Zhou, Zi; Fang, Ya; Shi, Leiyu

2017-09-11

The digital divide persists despite broad accessibility of mobile tools. The relationship between the digital divide and health disparities reflects social status in terms of access to resources and health outcomes; however, data on this relationship are limited from developing countries such as China. The aim of this study was to examine the current rates of access to mobile tools (Internet use and mobile phone ownership) among older Chinese individuals (aged ≥45 years), the predictors of access at individual and community levels, and the relationship between access to mobile tools and health outcomes. We drew cross-sectional data from a national representative survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which focused on the older population (aged ≥45 years). We used two-level mixed logistic regression models, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity at the community and individual levels for data analysis. In addition to individual-level socioeconomic status (SES), we included community-level resources such as neighborhood amenities, health care facilities, and community organizations. Health outcomes were measured by self-reported health and absence of disability based on validated scales. Among the 18,215 participants, 6.51% had used the Internet in the past month, and 83% owned a mobile phone. In the multivariate models, Internet use was strongly associated with SES, rural or urban residence, neighborhood amenities, community resources, and geographic region. Mobile phone ownership was strongly associated with SES and rural/urban residence but not so much with neighborhood amenities and community resources. Internet use was a significant predictor of self-reported health status, and mobile phone ownership was significantly associated with having disability even after controlling for potential confounders at the individual and community levels. This study is one of the first to examine digital divide and its relationship with health disparities in China. The data showed a significant digital divide in China, especially in the older population. Internet access is still limited to people with higher SES; however, the mobile phone has been adopted by the general population. The digital divide is associated with not only individual SES but also community resources. Future electronic health (eHealth) programs need to consider the accessibility of mobile tools and develop culturally appropriate programs for various social groups. ©Y Alicia Hong, Zi Zhou, Ya Fang, Leiyu Shi. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 11.09.2017.

Combating Unmeasured Confounding in Cross-Sectional Studies: Evaluating Instrumental-Variable and Heckman Selection Models

PubMed Central

DeMaris, Alfred

2014-01-01

Unmeasured confounding is the principal threat to unbiased estimation of treatment “effects” (i.e., regression parameters for binary regressors) in nonexperimental research. It refers to unmeasured characteristics of individuals that lead them both to be in a particular “treatment” category and to register higher or lower values than others on a response variable. In this article, I introduce readers to 2 econometric techniques designed to control the problem, with a particular emphasis on the Heckman selection model (HSM). Both techniques can be used with only cross-sectional data. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, I compare the performance of instrumental-variable regression (IVR) and HSM to that of ordinary least squares (OLS) under conditions with treatment and unmeasured confounding both present and absent. I find HSM generally to outperform IVR with respect to mean-square-error of treatment estimates, as well as power for detecting either a treatment effect or unobserved confounding. However, both HSM and IVR require a large sample to be fully effective. The use of HSM and IVR in tandem with OLS to untangle unobserved confounding bias in cross-sectional data is further demonstrated with an empirical application. Using data from the 2006–2010 General Social Survey (National Opinion Research Center, 2014), I examine the association between being married and subjective well-being. PMID:25110904

Individual heterogeneity and identifiability in capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2004-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities is a far more serious problem for capture-recapture modeling than has previously been recognized. In this note, I illustrate that population size is not an identifiable parameter under the general closed population mark-recapture model Mh. The problem of identifiability is obvious if the population includes individuals with pi = 0, but persists even when it is assumed that individual detection probabilities are bounded away from zero. Identifiability may be attained within parametric families of distributions for pi, but not among parametric families of distributions. Consequently, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, capture-recapture analysis is strongly model dependent.

Effect of family background on the educational gradient in lifetime fertility of Finnish women born 1940–50

PubMed Central

Nisén, Jessica; Myrskylä, Mikko; Silventoinen, Karri; Martikainen, Pekka

2014-01-01

An inverse association between education and fertility in women has been found in many societies but the causes of this association remain inadequately understood. We investigated whether observed and unobserved family-background characteristics explained educational differences in lifetime fertility among 35,212 Finnish women born in 1940–50. Poisson and logistic regression models, adjusted for measured socio-demographic family-background characteristics and for unobserved family characteristics shared by siblings, were used to analyse the relationship between education and the number of children, having any children, and fertility beyond the first child. The woman's education and the socio-economic position of the family were negatively associated with fertility. Observed family characteristics moderately (3–28 per cent) explained the association between education and fertility, and results from models including unobserved characteristics supported this interpretation. The remaining association may represent a causal relationship between education and fertility or joint preferences that form independently of our measures of background. PMID:24946905

Effect of family background on the educational gradient in lifetime fertility of Finnish women born 1940-50.

PubMed

Nisén, Jessica; Myrskylä, Mikko; Silventoinen, Karri; Martikainen, Pekka

2014-01-01

An inverse association between education and fertility in women has been found in many societies but the causes of this association remain inadequately understood. We investigated whether observed and unobserved family-background characteristics explained educational differences in lifetime fertility among 35,212 Finnish women born in 1940-50. Poisson and logistic regression models, adjusted for measured socio-demographic family-background characteristics and for unobserved family characteristics shared by siblings, were used to analyse the relationship between education and the number of children, having any children, and fertility beyond the first child. The woman's education and the socio-economic position of the family were negatively associated with fertility. Observed family characteristics moderately (3-28 per cent) explained the association between education and fertility, and results from models including unobserved characteristics supported this interpretation. The remaining association may represent a causal relationship between education and fertility or joint preferences that form independently of our measures of background.

On negative outcome control of unobserved confounding as a generalization of difference-in-differences

PubMed Central

Sofer, Tamar; Richardson, David B.; Colicino, Elena; Schwartz, Joel; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.

2016-01-01

The difference-in-differences (DID) approach is a well known strategy for estimating the effect of an exposure in the presence of unobserved confounding. The approach is most commonly used when pre-and post-exposure outcome measurements are available, and one can assume that the association of the unobserved confounder with the outcome is equal in the two exposure groups, and constant over time. Then, one recovers the treatment effect by regressing the change in outcome over time on the exposure. In this paper, we interpret the difference-in-differences as a negative outcome control (NOC) approach. We show that the pre-exposure outcome is a negative control outcome, as it cannot be influenced by the subsequent exposure, and it is affected by both observed and unobserved confounders of the exposure-outcome association of interest. The relation between DID and NOC provides simple conditions under which negative control outcomes can be used to detect and correct for confounding bias. However, for general negative control outcomes, the DID-like assumption may be overly restrictive and rarely credible, because it requires that both the outcome of interest and the control outcome are measured on the same scale. Thus, we present a scale-invariant generalization of the DID that may be used in broader NOC contexts. The proposed approach is demonstrated in simulations and on a Normative Aging Study data set, in which Body Mass Index is used for NOC of the relationship between air pollution and inflammatory outcomes. PMID:28239233

The poverty-reducing effect of Medicaid.

PubMed

Sommers, Benjamin D; Oellerich, Donald

2013-09-01

Medicaid provides health insurance for 54 million Americans. Using the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure (which subtracts out-of-pocket medical expenses from family resources), we estimated the impact of eliminating Medicaid. In our counterfactual, Medicaid beneficiaries would become uninsured or gain other insurance. Counterfactual medical expenditures were drawn stochastically from propensity-score-matched individuals without Medicaid. While this method captures the importance of risk protection, it likely underestimates Medicaid's impact due to unobserved differences between Medicaid and non-Medicaid individuals. Nonetheless, we find that Medicaid reduces out-of-pocket medical spending from $871 to $376 per beneficiary, and decreases poverty rates by 1.0% among children, 2.2% among disabled adults, and 0.7% among elderly individuals. When factoring in institutionalized populations, an additional 500,000 people were kept out of poverty. Overall, Medicaid kept at least 2.6 million-and as many as 3.4 million-out of poverty in 2010, making it the U.S.'s third largest anti-poverty program. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Impact of Job Stress on Smoking and Quitting: Evidence from the HRS

PubMed Central

Ayyagari, Padmaja; Sindelar, Jody L.

2011-01-01

Job-related stress might affect smoking behavior because smoking may relieve stress and stress can make individuals more present-focused. Alternatively, individuals may both self-select into stressful jobs and choose to smoke based on unobserved factors. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to examine how job stress affects the probability that smokers quit and the number of cigarettes smoked for current smokers. To address the potential endogeneity of job stress based on time invariant factors, we include individual fixed effects, which control for factors such as ability to handle stress. Occupational fixed effects are also included to control for occupational characteristics other than stress; time dummies control for the secular decline in smoking rates. Using a sample of people who smoked in the previous wave, we find that job stress is positively related to continuing to smoke among recent smokers. The results indicate that the key impact of stress is on the extensive margin of smoking, as opposed to the number of cigarettes smoked. PMID:21625286

The impact of individual-level heterogeneity on estimated infectious disease burden: a simulation study.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Wallinga, Jacco

2016-12-08

Disease burden is not evenly distributed within a population; this uneven distribution can be due to individual heterogeneity in progression rates between disease stages. Composite measures of disease burden that are based on disease progression models, such as the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), are widely used to quantify the current and future burden of infectious diseases. Our goal was to investigate to what extent ignoring the presence of heterogeneity could bias DALY computation. Simulations using individual-based models for hypothetical infectious diseases with short and long natural histories were run assuming either "population-averaged" progression probabilities between disease stages, or progression probabilities that were influenced by an a priori defined individual-level frailty (i.e., heterogeneity in disease risk) distribution, and DALYs were calculated. Under the assumption of heterogeneity in transition rates and increasing frailty with age, the short natural history disease model predicted 14% fewer DALYs compared with the homogenous population assumption. Simulations of a long natural history disease indicated that assuming homogeneity in transition rates when heterogeneity was present could overestimate total DALYs, in the present case by 4% (95% quantile interval: 1-8%). The consequences of ignoring population heterogeneity should be considered when defining transition parameters for natural history models and when interpreting the resulting disease burden estimates.

Unaccompanied evacuation and adult mortality: evaluating the finnish policy of evacuating children to foster care during World War II.

PubMed

Santavirta, Torsten

2014-09-01

I examined associations between evacuation of Finnish children to temporary foster care in Sweden during World War II and all-cause mortality between ages 38 and 78 years. I used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate mortality risk according to whether the individual was evacuated during childhood or not. I used within-sibling analysis to control for all unobserved socioeconomic and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Individual-level data for Finnish cohorts born in 1933 to 1944 were derived from wartime government records, Finnish census data from 1950 and 1970, and death cause registry from 1971 to 2011. I found no statistically significant association between evacuation and all-cause mortality when all exposed individuals were included in the analysis. However, subgroup analysis showed that men evacuated before age 4 years had a 1.31 higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.69) than their nonevacuated counterparts. In the aggregate, individuals do not have elevated mortality risk as a consequence of foster care during early childhood owing to the onset of sudden external shocks (e.g., wars).

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

Survival Analysis of Faculty Retention and Promotion in the Social Sciences by Gender

PubMed Central

Varbanov, Roumen A.; Hoh, Yee Shwen; Knisley, Margaret L.; Holmes, Mary Alice

2015-01-01

Background Recruitment and retention of talent is central to the research performance of universities. Existing research shows that, while men are more likely than women to be promoted at the different stages of the academic career, no such difference is found when it comes to faculty retention rates. Current research on faculty retention, however, focuses on careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). We extend this line of inquiry to the social sciences. Methods We follow 2,218 tenure-track assistant professors hired since 1990 in seven social science disciplines at nineteen U.S. universities from time of hire to time of departure. We also track their time to promotion to associate and full professor. Using survival analysis, we examine gender differences in time to departure and time to promotion. Our methods account for censoring and unobserved heterogeneity, as well as effect heterogeneity across disciplines and cohorts. Results We find no statistically significant differences between genders in faculty retention. However, we do find that men are more likely to be granted tenure than women. When it comes to promotion to full professor, the results are less conclusive, as the effect of gender is sensitive to model specification. Conclusions The results corroborate previous findings about gender patterns in faculty retention and promotion. They suggest that advances have been made when it comes to gender equality in retention and promotion, but important differences still persist. PMID:26580565

Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity.

PubMed

Benítez-Silva, Hugo; Ni, Huan

2008-05-01

Expected longevity is an important factor influencing older individuals' decisions such as consumption, savings, purchase of life insurance and annuities, claiming of Social Security benefits, and labor supply. It has also been shown to be a good predictor of actual longevity, which in turn is highly correlated with health status. A relatively new literature on health investments under uncertainty, which builds upon the seminal work by Grossman [Grossman, M., 1972. On the concept of health capital and demand for health. Journal of Political Economy 80, 223-255] has directly linked longevity with characteristics, behaviors, and decisions by utility maximizing agents. Our empirical model can be understood within that theoretical framework as estimating a production function of longevity. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we directly incorporate health dynamics in explaining the variation in expected longevities, and compare two alternative measures of health dynamics: the self-reported health change, and the computed health change based on self-reports of health status. In 38% of the reports in our sample, computed health changes are inconsistent with the direct report on health changes over time. And another 15% of the sample can suffer from information losses if computed changes are used to assess changes in actual health. These potentially serious problems raise doubts regarding the use and interpretation of the computed health changes and even the lagged measures of self-reported health as controls for health dynamics in a variety of empirical settings. Our empirical results, controlling for both subjective and objective measures of health status and unobserved heterogeneity in reporting, suggest that self-reported health changes are a preferred measure of health dynamics.

Smoking and early retirement due to chronic disability.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Tommy; Nilsson, Anton

2018-05-01

This paper considers the long-term effects of smoking on disability retirement in Sweden. Smoking is known to have damaging effects on health, but there is limited evidence on how the effects of smoking translate into worse labour market outcomes, such as the inability to work. In contrast to the few previous studies on smoking and disability retirement, we use a large population sample with registry information on smoking, which is recorded for all women who give birth in Sweden. Thanks to these comprehensive data, we are able to account for a much broader range of potential confounders. In particular, by the use of sibling and twin fixed effects, we account for unobserved heterogeneity in childhood environment and family characteristics. Given that smoking is often initiated in adolescence, one would suspect such factors to play important roles. Among individuals aged 50-64 in 2011, a simple model suggested smokers to have a 5 percentage point higher probability of receiving (full) disability pension, making them more than twice as likely as non-smokers to receive this. However, in a model with sibling fixed effects, the size of the effect was reduced by more than a third. The results point to the importance of confounders, such as childhood circumstances or behaviours, which were not accounted for by previous studies. We also consider effects on disability due to different health conditions. In relative terms, effects are the largest for circulatory conditions and tumours. Results are largely driven by health problems severe enough to merit hospitalization, and there is no evidence of a role played by financial incentives. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Preferences for the Natural World Using Monetary and Nonmonetary Assessments of Value

PubMed Central

DALLIMER, MARTIN; TINCH, DUGALD; HANLEY, NICK; IRVINE, KATHERINE N; ROUQUETTE, JAMES R; WARREN, PHILIP H; MALTBY, LORRAINE; GASTON, KEVIN J; ARMSWORTH, PAUL R

2014-01-01

Given that funds for biodiversity conservation are limited, there is a need to understand people’s preferences for its different components. To date, such preferences have largely been measured in monetary terms. However, how people value biodiversity may differ from economic theory, and there is little consensus over whether monetary metrics are always appropriate or the degree to which other methods offer alternative and complementary perspectives on value. We used a choice experiment to compare monetary amounts recreational visitors to urban green spaces were willing to pay for biodiversity enhancement (increases in species richness for birds, plants, and aquatic macroinvertebrates) with self-reported psychological gains in well-being derived from visiting the same sites. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates were significant and positive, and respondents reported high gains in well-being across 3 axes derived from environmental psychology theories (reflection, attachment, continuity with past). The 2 metrics were broadly congruent. Participants with above-median self-reported well-being scores were willing to pay significantly higher amounts for enhancing species richness than those with below-median scores, regardless of taxon. The socio-economic and demographic background of participants played little role in determining either their well-being or the probability of choosing a paying option within the choice experiment. Site-level environmental characteristics were only somewhat related to WTP, but showed strong associations with self-reported well-being. Both approaches are likely to reflect a combination of the environmental properties of a site and unobserved individual preference heterogeneity for the natural world. Our results suggest that either metric will deliver mutually consistent results in an assessment of environmental preferences, although which approach is preferable depends on why one wishes to measure values for the natural world. PMID:24372643

Indirect observation of unobservable interstellar molecules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbst, E.; Green, S.; Thaddeus, P.; Klemperer, W.

1977-01-01

It is suggested that the abundances of neutral non-polar interstellar molecules unobservable by radio astronomy can be systematically determined by radio observation of the protonated ions. As an example, observed N2H(+) column densities are analyzed to infer molecular nitrogen abundances in dense interstellar clouds. The chemistries and expected densities of the protonated ions of O2, C2, CO2, C2H2 and CH4 are then discussed. Microwave transition frequencies fo HCO2(+) and C2H3(+) are estimated, and a preliminary astronomical search for HCO2(+) is described.

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Share capitalism and worker wellbeing⋆, ⋆⋆

PubMed Central

Clark, Andrew E.; Freeman, Richard B.; Green, Colin P.

2017-01-01

We show that worker wellbeing is determined not only by the amount of compensation workers receive but also by how compensation is determined. While previous theoretical and empirical work has often been preoccupied with individual performance-related pay, we find that the receipt of a range of group-performance schemes (profit shares, group bonuses and share ownership) is associated with higher job satisfaction. This holds conditional on wage levels, so that pay methods are associated with greater job satisfaction in addition to that coming from higher wages. We use a variety of methods to control for unobserved individual and job-specific characteristics. We suggest that half of the share-capitalism effect is accounted for by employees reciprocating for the “gift”; we also show that share capitalism helps dampen the negative wellbeing effects of what we typically think of as “bad” aspects of job quality. PMID:28725118

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

PubMed

Cressler, Clayton E; Bengtson, Stefan; Nelson, William A

2017-07-01

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Observing the Heterogeneous Electro-redox of Individual Single-Layer Graphene Sheets.

PubMed

Chen, Tao; Zhang, Yuwei; Xu, Weilin

2016-09-27

Electro-redox-induced heterogeneous fluorescence of an individual single-layer graphene sheet was observed in real time by a total internal reflection fluorescence microscope. It was found that the fluorescence intensity of an individual sheet can be tuned reversibly by applying periodic voltages to control the redox degree of graphene sheets. Accordingly, the oxidation and reduction kinetics of an individual single-layer graphene sheet was studied at different voltages. The electro-redox-induced reversible variation of fluorescence intensity of individual sheets indicates a reversible band gap tuning strategy. Furthermore, correlation analysis of redox rate constants on individual graphene sheets revealed a redox-induced spatiotemporal heterogeneity or dynamics of graphene sheets. The observed controllable redox kinetics can rationally guide the precise band gap tuning of individual graphene sheets and then help their extensive applications in optoelectronics and devices for renewable energy.

LATENT SPACE MODELS FOR MULTIVIEW NETWORK DATA

PubMed Central

Salter-Townshend, Michael; McCormick, Tyler H.

2018-01-01

Social relationships consist of interactions along multiple dimensions. In social networks, this means that individuals form multiple types of relationships with the same person (e.g., an individual will not trust all of his/her acquaintances). Statistical models for these data require understanding two related types of dependence structure: (i) structure within each relationship type, or network view, and (ii) the association between views. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework that parsimoniously represents dependence between relationship types while also maintaining enough flexibility to allow individuals to serve different roles in different relationship types. Our approach builds on work on latent space models for networks [see, e.g., J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97 (2002) 1090–1098]. These models represent the propensity for two individuals to form edges as conditionally independent given the distance between the individuals in an unobserved social space. Our work departs from previous work in this area by representing dependence structure between network views through a multivariate Bernoulli likelihood, providing a representation of between-view association. This approach infers correlations between views not explained by the latent space model. Using our method, we explore 6 multiview network structures across 75 villages in rural southern Karnataka, India [Banerjee et al. (2013)]. PMID:29721127

LATENT SPACE MODELS FOR MULTIVIEW NETWORK DATA.

PubMed

Salter-Townshend, Michael; McCormick, Tyler H

2017-09-01

Social relationships consist of interactions along multiple dimensions. In social networks, this means that individuals form multiple types of relationships with the same person (e.g., an individual will not trust all of his/her acquaintances). Statistical models for these data require understanding two related types of dependence structure: (i) structure within each relationship type, or network view, and (ii) the association between views. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework that parsimoniously represents dependence between relationship types while also maintaining enough flexibility to allow individuals to serve different roles in different relationship types. Our approach builds on work on latent space models for networks [see, e.g., J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97 (2002) 1090-1098]. These models represent the propensity for two individuals to form edges as conditionally independent given the distance between the individuals in an unobserved social space. Our work departs from previous work in this area by representing dependence structure between network views through a multivariate Bernoulli likelihood, providing a representation of between-view association. This approach infers correlations between views not explained by the latent space model. Using our method, we explore 6 multiview network structures across 75 villages in rural southern Karnataka, India [Banerjee et al. (2013)].

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.

PubMed

Pepin, Kim M; Kay, Shannon L; Golas, Ben D; Shriner, Susan S; Gilbert, Amy T; Miller, Ryan S; Graham, Andrea L; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C; Samuel, Michael D; Hooten, Mevin B; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Webb, Colleen T; Buhnerkempe, Michael G

2017-03-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pepin, Kim M.; Kay, Shannon L.; Golas, Ben D.; Shriner, Susan A.; Gilbert, Amy T.; Miller, Ryan S.; Graham, Andrea L.; Riley, Steven; Cross, Paul C.; Samuel, Michael D.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Webb, Colleen T.; Buhnerkempe, Michael G.

2017-01-01

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease.

Contextual priming: Where people vote affects how they vote

PubMed Central

Berger, Jonah; Meredith, Marc; Wheeler, S. Christian

2008-01-01

American voters are assigned to vote at a particular polling location (e.g., a church, school, etc.). We show these assigned polling locations can influence how people vote. Analysis of a recent general election demonstrates that people who were assigned to vote in schools were more likely to support a school funding initiative. This effect persisted even when controlling for voters' political views, demographics, and unobservable characteristics of individuals living near schools. A follow-up experiment using random assignment suggests that priming underlies these effects, and that they can occur outside of conscious awareness. These findings underscore the subtle power of situational context to shape important real-world decisions. PMID:18574152

The Effect of Widowhood on Mental Health - an Analysis of Anticipation Patterns Surrounding the Death of a Spouse.

PubMed

Siflinger, Bettina

2017-12-01

This study explores the effects of widowhood on mental health by taking into account the anticipation and adaptation to the partner's death. The empirical analysis uses representative panel data from the USA that are linked to administrative death records of the National Death Index. I estimate static and dynamic specifications of the panel probit model in which unobserved heterogeneity is modeled with correlated random effects. I find strong anticipation effects of the partner's death on the probability of depression, implying that the partner's death event cannot be assumed to be exogenous in econometric models. In the absence of any anticipation effects, the partner's death has long-lasting mental health consequences, leading to a significantly slower adaptation to widowhood. The results suggest that both anticipation effects and adaptation effects can be attributed to a caregiver burden and to the cause of death. The findings of this study have important implications for designing adequate social policies for the elderly US population that alleviate the negative consequences of bereavement. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

PubMed

Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

2016-02-01

This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Household demography and early childhood mortality in a rice-farming village in Northern Laos.

PubMed

Tomita, Shinsuke; Parker, Daniel M; Jennings, Julia A; Wood, James

2015-01-01

This paper extends Alexandr Chayanov's model of changing household demography (specifically the ratio of food consumers to food producers) and its influence on agricultural behavior so that it includes possible adverse effects of a rising ratio on nutritional status and early childhood mortality within the household. We apply the model to 35 years' worth of longitudinal demographic and economic data collected in the irrigated-rice growing village of Na Savang in northern Laos. When appropriate controls are included for other household variables, unobserved inter-household heterogeneity, and changes in local conditions and national policy over the study period, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in the household's consumer/producer ratio induces something like a nine-fold increase in the risk of death among household members aged less than five years. Monte Carlo simulation studies suggest that this may be an over-estimate but also that the effect is probably real and likely to be an important factor in household demography. At the very least, the results suggest that Chayanov's model still has theoretical relevance and deserves to be revived.

Application of Fractal theory for crash rate prediction: Insights from random parameters and latent class tobit models.

PubMed

Chand, Sai; Dixit, Vinayak V

2018-03-01

The repercussions from congestion and accidents on major highways can have significant negative impacts on the economy and environment. It is a primary objective of transport authorities to minimize the likelihood of these phenomena taking place, to improve safety and overall network performance. In this study, we use the Hurst Exponent metric from Fractal Theory, as a congestion indicator for crash-rate modeling. We analyze one month of traffic speed data at several monitor sites along the M4 motorway in Sydney, Australia and assess congestion patterns with the Hurst Exponent of speed (H speed ). Random Parameters and Latent Class Tobit models were estimated, to examine the effect of congestion on historical crash rates, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using a latent class modeling approach, the motorway sections were probabilistically classified into two segments, based on the presence of entry and exit ramps. This will allow transportation agencies to implement appropriate safety/traffic countermeasures when addressing accident hotspots or inadequately managed sections of motorway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer incidence and pattern of arsenic concentration in drinking water wells in Córdoba, Argentina.

PubMed

Aballay, Laura Rosana; Díaz, María del Pilar; Francisca, Franco Matías; Muñoz, Sonia Edith

2012-01-01

Cancer occurrence is associated with Arsenic (As) in drinking water. In Argentina, there are high As concentrations in groundwater but there is no published evidence yet of an association between geographic patterns of cancer incidence and the distribution of As in groundwater supplies. The purpose of this study is to assess the association between cancer incidence patterns and As in Córdoba province's aquifers. Age standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were obtained from Córdoba Cancer Registry (CCR), and As data from official reports of monitoring wells. A multilevel model was applied. Total ASIRs by aquifers for males/females were 191.01/249.22 (Rioja plain); 215.03/225.37 (Pampa hills); and 239.42/188.93 (Chaco-Pampa plain). As was associated with increased risk of colon cancer in women, and lung and bladder cancers in both sexes. It had no association with breast cancer. ASIRs were related to As, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. An overlapping pattern of higher As and higher risks was evident for lung, bladder and female colon cancers.

Household Demography and Early Childhood Mortality in a Rice-Farming Village in Northern Laos

PubMed Central

Tomita, Shinsuke; Parker, Daniel M.; Jennings, Julia A.; Wood, James

2015-01-01

This paper extends Alexandr Chayanov’s model of changing household demography (specifically the ratio of food consumers to food producers) and its influence on agricultural behavior so that it includes possible adverse effects of a rising ratio on nutritional status and early childhood mortality within the household. We apply the model to 35 years’ worth of longitudinal demographic and economic data collected in the irrigated-rice growing village of Na Savang in northern Laos. When appropriate controls are included for other household variables, unobserved inter-household heterogeneity, and changes in local conditions and national policy over the study period, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in the household’s consumer/producer ratio induces something like a nine-fold increase in the risk of death among household members aged less than five years. Monte Carlo simulation studies suggest that this may be an over-estimate but also that the effect is probably real and likely to be an important factor in household demography. At the very least, the results suggest that Chayanov’s model still has theoretical relevance and deserves to be revived. PMID:25775467

Impact-induced shock and the formation of natural quasicrystals in the early solar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollister, Lincoln S.; Bindi, Luca; Yao, Nan; Poirier, Gerald R.; Andronicos, Christopher L.; MacPherson, Glenn J.; Lin, Chaney; Distler, Vadim V.; Eddy, Michael P.; Kostin, Alexander; Kryachko, Valery; Steinhardt, William M.; Yudovskaya, Marina; Eiler, John M.; Guan, Yunbin; Clarke, Jamil J.; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2014-06-01

The discovery of a natural quasicrystal, icosahedrite (Al63Cu24Fe13), accompanied by khatyrkite (CuAl2) and cupalite (CuAl) in the CV3 carbonaceous chondrite Khatyrka has posed a mystery as to what extraterrestrial processes led to the formation and preservation of these metal alloys. Here we present a range of evidence, including the discovery of high-pressure phases never observed before in a CV3 chondrite, indicating that an impact shock generated a heterogeneous distribution of pressures and temperatures in which some portions reached at least 5 GPa and 1,200 °C. The conditions were sufficient to melt Al-Cu-bearing minerals, which then rapidly solidified into icosahedrite and other Al-Cu metal phases. The meteorite also contains heretofore unobserved phases of iron-nickel and iron sulphide with substantial amounts of Al and Cu. The presence of these phases in Khatyrka provides further proof that the Al-Cu alloys are natural products of unusual processes that occurred in the early solar system.

Body composition and wages.

PubMed

Wada, Roy; Tekin, Erdal

2010-07-01

This paper examines the relationship between body composition and wages in the United States. We develop measures of body composition--body fat (BF) and fat-free mass (FFM)--using data on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) that are available in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III and estimate wage models for respondents in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Previous research uses body size or BMI as measures of obesity despite a growing concern that they do not distinguish between body fat and fat-free body mass or adequately control for non-homogeneity inside the human body. Therefore, measures presented in this paper represent a useful alternative to BMI-based proxies of obesity. Our results indicate that BF is associated with decreased wages for both males and females among whites and blacks. We also present evidence suggesting that FFM is associated with increased wages. We show that these results are not the artifacts of unobserved heterogeneity. Finally, our findings are robust to numerous specification checks and to a large number of alternative BIA prediction equations from which the body composition measures are derived. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

PubMed

Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

2013-08-01

We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synchrony of plant cellular circadian clocks with heterogeneous properties under light/dark cycles.

PubMed

Okada, Masaaki; Muranaka, Tomoaki; Ito, Shogo; Oyama, Tokitaka

2017-03-22

Individual cells in a plant can work independently as circadian clocks, and their properties are the basis of various circadian phenomena. The behaviour of individual cellular clocks in Lemna gibba was orderly under 24-h light/dark cycles despite their heterogeneous free-running periods (FRPs). Here, we reveal the entrainment habits of heterogeneous cellular clocks using non-24-h light/dark cycles (T-cycles). The cellular rhythms of AtCCA1::LUC under T = 16 h cycles showed heterogeneous entrainment that was associated with their heterogeneous FRPs. Under T = 12 h cycles, most cells showed rhythms having ~24-h periods. This suggested that the lower limit of entrainment to the light/dark cycles of heterogeneous cellular circadian clocks is set to a period longer than 12 h, which enables them to be synchronous under ~24-h daily cycles without being perturbed by short light/dark cycles. The entrainment habits of individual cellular clocks are likely to be the basis of the circadian behaviour of plant under the natural day-night cycle with noisy environmental fluctuations. We further suggest that modifications of EARLY FLOWERING3 (ELF3) in individual cells deviate the entrainability to shorter T-cycles possibly by altering both the FRPs and light responsiveness.

Mobile Phone Messaging During Unobserved "Home" Induction to Buprenorphine.

PubMed

Tofighi, Babak; Grossman, Ellie; Sherman, Scott; Nunes, Edward V; Lee, Joshua D

2016-01-01

The deployment of health information technologies promises to optimize clinical outcomes for populations with substance use disorders. Electronic health records, web-based counseling interventions, and mobile phone applications enhance the delivery of evidence-based behavioral and pharmacological treatments, with minimal burden to clinical personnel, infrastructure, and work flows. This clinical case shares a recent experience utilizing mobile phone text messaging between an office-based buprenorphine provider in a safety net ambulatory clinic and a patient seeking buprenorphine treatment for opioid use disorder. The case highlights the use of text message-based physician-patient communication to facilitate unobserved "home" induction onto buprenorphine.

Equal health, equal work? The role of disability benefits in employment after controlling for health status.

PubMed

Frutos, Eva Maria Lopez; Castello, Judit Vall

2015-04-01

In Spain, an individual can be considered legally disabled in one of the following two ways: by either receiving a disability support benefit and/or holding a certificate of disability. Having at least one of these official sanctions entitles the disabled person to a number of financial and tax advantages. However, only support benefits entail a monthly allowance and, at the same time, the individual is required to undertake a different job to that of his/her previous one. To jointly estimate (after controlling for the health characteristics of the disabling condition and for unobserved factors) the probability of receiving disability benefits and the probability of working, we make use of a newly released database of individuals with a certificate of disability. Additionally, we exploit the rich set of health measures that this database also provides. Our results show that the probability of working is 5% lower (average treatment effect, ATE) for those disabled individuals receiving benefits. However, when we perform the estimation for individuals with differing degrees of disability, the disincentive effects of the benefits are only significant for individuals with the mildest level of disability (33-44%) i.e. those who are on the threshold of being disabled.

Association between cotinine-verified smoking status and hypertension in 167,868 Korean adults.

PubMed

Kim, Byung Jin; Han, Ji Min; Kang, Jung Gyu; Kim, Bum Soo; Kang, Jin Ho

2017-10-01

Previous studies showed inconsistent results concerning the relationship between chronic smoking and blood pressure. Most of the studies involved self-reported smoking status. This study was performed to evaluate the association of urinary cotinine or self-reported smoking status with hypertension and blood pressure in Korean adults. Among individuals enrolled in the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study and Kangbuk Samsung Cohort Study, 167,868 participants (men, 55.7%; age, 37.5 ± 6.9 years) between 2011 and 2013 who had urinary cotinine measurements were included. Individuals with urinary cotinine levels ≥50 ng/mL were defined as cotinine-verified current smokers. The prevalence of hypertension and cotinine-verified current smokers in the overall population was 6.8% and 22.7%, respectively (10.0% in men and 2.8% in women for hypertension: 37.7% in men and 3.9% in women for cotinine-verified current smokers). In a multivariate regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol drinking, vigorous exercise, and diabetes, cotinine-verified current smoking was associated with lower prevalence of hypertension compared with cotinine-verified never smoking (OR[95% CI], 0.79 [0.75, 0.84]). Log-transformed cotinine levels and unobserved smoking were negatively associated with hypertension, respectively (0.96 [0.96, 0.97] and 0.55 [0.39, 0.79]). In a multivariate linear regression analysis, the cotinine-verified current smoking was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) (regression coefficient[95% CI], -1.23[-1.39, -1.07] for systolic BP and -0.71 [-0.84, -0.58] for diastolic BP). In subgroup analyses according to sex, the inverse associations between cotinine-verified current smoking and hypertension were observed only in men. This large observational study showed that cotinine-verified current smoking and unobserved smoking were inversely associated with hypertension in Korean adults, especially only in men.

Ethnic heterogeneity, social capital and psychological distress in Sweden.

PubMed

Johnson-Singh, Charisse M; Rostila, Mikael; Ponce de Leon, Antonio; Forsell, Yvonne; Engström, Karin

2018-05-25

Ethnic heterogeneity has been linked to both protective and detrimental effects on mental health. Few studies have investigated the role of social capital in this relationship and none have found that it has an explanatory role. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between two measures of ethnic heterogeneity and psychological distress in Stockholm County, as well as the explanatory role of social capital for individuals with Swedish-background, foreign-background and those who are foreign-born. This study used data collected from respondents aged 18-64 to the 2002, 2006, 2010 baseline questionnaires of the Stockholm Public Health Cohort and was linked with individual and area-level register information. Ethnic heterogeneity was the main exposure, measured by: 1) ethnic density, defined as the proportion of first and second generation immigrants with 2 foreign-born parents; and 2) ethnic diversity, using the fragmentation index. Social capital measures of individual and contextual-level social support and horizontal trust were the main explanatory factors of interest. The outcome, psychological distress, was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire-12 with a 2/3 cut-off. Prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using multi-level poisson regression with robust variances. Age and sex adjusted analyses for the whole study population demonstrated that a 10% increase in ethnic density or diversity was associated with a 1.06 (1.05-1.07) times higher prevalence of psychological distress. In the stratified analyses, both foreign-born respondents and those with Swedish-background showed increasing prevalence of psychological distress with increasing ethnic heterogeneity. However, this trend was entirely explained by socioeconomic factors in the Swedish-background respondents and by additional adjustments for individual and contextual social support and horizontal trust for the foreign-born. Further adjustment for contextual horizontal trust showed ethnic heterogeneity to be protective for respondents Swedish-background. There was no clear trend between ethnic heterogeneity and psychological distress for respondents with foreign-background. The association between ethnic heterogeneity and psychological distress differs by ethnic background. There was no difference in this association based on the measure of ethnic heterogeneity used, nor in the explanatory role of social capital between ethnic heterogeneity measures. Socioeconomic indicators and some elements of individual and contextual social capital are important explanatory factors of the excess risk of psychological distress with regards to ethnic heterogeneity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

PubMed Central

Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

2014-01-01

The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

The importance of individual variation in the dynamics of animal collective movements.

PubMed

Del Mar Delgado, Maria; Miranda, Maria; Alvarez, Silvia J; Gurarie, Eliezer; Fagan, William F; Penteriani, Vincenzo; di Virgilio, Agustina; Morales, Juan Manuel

2018-05-19

Animal collective movements are a key example of a system that links two clearly defined levels of organization: the individual and the group. Most models investigating collective movements have generated coherent collective behaviours without the inclusion of individual variability. However, new individual-based models, together with emerging empirical information, emphasize that within-group heterogeneity may strongly influence collective movement behaviour. Here we (i) review the empirical evidence for individual variation in animal collective movements, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations have represented individual heterogeneity when modelling collective movements and (iii) present a model to show how within-group heterogeneity influences the collective properties of a group. Our review underscores the need to consider variability at the level of the individual to improve our understanding of how individual decision rules lead to emergent movement patterns, and also to yield better quantitative predictions of collective behaviour.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-02-28

Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

From Genes to Ecosystems in Microbiology: Modeling Approaches and the Importance of Individuality

PubMed Central

Kreft, Jan-Ulrich; Plugge, Caroline M.; Prats, Clara; Leveau, Johan H. J.; Zhang, Weiwen; Hellweger, Ferdi L.

2017-01-01

Models are important tools in microbial ecology. They can be used to advance understanding by helping to interpret observations and test hypotheses, and to predict the effects of ecosystem management actions or a different climate. Over the past decades, biological knowledge and ecosystem observations have advanced to the molecular and in particular gene level. However, microbial ecology models have changed less and a current challenge is to make them utilize the knowledge and observations at the genetic level. We review published models that explicitly consider genes and make predictions at the population or ecosystem level. The models can be grouped into three general approaches, i.e., metabolic flux, gene-centric and agent-based. We describe and contrast these approaches by applying them to a hypothetical ecosystem and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. An important distinguishing feature is how variation between individual cells (individuality) is handled. In microbial ecosystems, individual heterogeneity is generated by a number of mechanisms including stochastic interactions of molecules (e.g., gene expression), stochastic and deterministic cell division asymmetry, small-scale environmental heterogeneity, and differential transport in a heterogeneous environment. This heterogeneity can then be amplified and transferred to other cell properties by several mechanisms, including nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, cell cycle asynchronicity and the effects of age and damage. For example, stochastic gene expression may lead to heterogeneity in nutrient uptake enzyme levels, which in turn results in heterogeneity in intracellular nutrient levels. Individuality can have important ecological consequences, including division of labor, bet hedging, aging and sub-optimality. Understanding the importance of individuality and the mechanism(s) underlying it for the specific microbial system and question investigated is essential for selecting the optimal modeling strategy. PMID:29230200

Polymer physics experiments with single DNA molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Douglas E.

1999-11-01

Bacteriophage DNA molecules were taken as a model flexible polymer chain for the experimental study of polymer dynamics at the single molecule level. Video fluorescence microscopy was used to directly observe the conformational dynamics of fluorescently labeled molecules, optical tweezers were used to manipulate individual molecules, and micro-fabricated flow cells were used to apply controlled hydrodynamic strain to molecules. These techniques constitute a powerful new experimental approach in the study of basic polymer physics questions. I have used these techniques to study the diffusion and relaxation of isolated and entangled polymer molecules and the hydrodynamic deformation of polymers in elongational and shear flows. These studies revealed a rich, and previously unobserved, ``molecular individualism'' in the dynamical behavior of single molecules. Individual measurements on ensembles of identical molecules allowed the average conformation to be determined as well as the underlying probability distributions for molecular conformation. Scaling laws, that predict the dependence of properties on chain length and concentration, were also tested. The basic assumptions of the reptation model were directly confirmed by visualizing the dynamics of entangled chains.

Capture-recapture methodology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, William R.; Kendall, William L.

2013-01-01

Capture-recapture methods were initially developed to estimate human population abundance, but since that time have seen widespread use for fish and wildlife populations to estimate and model various parameters of population, metapopulation, and disease dynamics. Repeated sampling of marked animals provides information for estimating abundance and tracking the fate of individuals in the face of imperfect detection. Mark types have evolved from clipping or tagging to use of noninvasive methods such as photography of natural markings and DNA collection from feces. Survival estimation has been emphasized more recently as have transition probabilities between life history states and/or geographical locations, even where some states are unobservable or uncertain. Sophisticated software has been developed to handle highly parameterized models, including environmental and individual covariates, to conduct model selection, and to employ various estimation approaches such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. With these user-friendly tools, complex statistical models for studying population dynamics have been made available to ecologists. The future will include a continuing trend toward integrating data types, both for tagged and untagged individuals, to produce more precise and robust population models.

From the Cover: Genome analysis of the smallest free-living eukaryote Ostreococcus tauri unveils many unique features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derelle, Evelyne; Ferraz, Conchita; Rombauts, Stephane; Rouzé, Pierre; Worden, Alexandra Z.; Robbens, Steven; Partensky, Frédéric; Degroeve, Sven; Echeynié, Sophie; Cooke, Richard; Saeys, Yvan; Wuyts, Jan; Jabbari, Kamel; Bowler, Chris; Panaud, Olivier; Piégu, Benoît; Ball, Steven G.; Ral, Jean-Philippe; Bouget, François-Yves; Piganeau, Gwenael; de Baets, Bernard; Picard, André; Delseny, Michel; Demaille, Jacques; van de Peer, Yves; Moreau, Hervé

2006-08-01

The green lineage is reportedly 1,500 million years old, evolving shortly after the endosymbiosis event that gave rise to early photosynthetic eukaryotes. In this study, we unveil the complete genome sequence of an ancient member of this lineage, the unicellular green alga Ostreococcus tauri (Prasinophyceae). This cosmopolitan marine primary producer is the world's smallest free-living eukaryote known to date. Features likely reflecting optimization of environmentally relevant pathways, including resource acquisition, unusual photosynthesis apparatus, and genes potentially involved in C4 photosynthesis, were observed, as was downsizing of many gene families. Overall, the 12.56-Mb nuclear genome has an extremely high gene density, in part because of extensive reduction of intergenic regions and other forms of compaction such as gene fusion. However, the genome is structurally complex. It exhibits previously unobserved levels of heterogeneity for a eukaryote. Two chromosomes differ structurally from the other eighteen. Both have a significantly biased G+C content, and, remarkably, they contain the majority of transposable elements. Many chromosome 2 genes also have unique codon usage and splicing, but phylogenetic analysis and composition do not support alien gene origin. In contrast, most chromosome 19 genes show no similarity to green lineage genes and a large number of them are specialized in cell surface processes. Taken together, the complete genome sequence, unusual features, and downsized gene families, make O. tauri an ideal model system for research on eukaryotic genome evolution, including chromosome specialization and green lineage ancestry. genome heterogeneity | genome sequence | green alga | Prasinophyceae | gene prediction

The epidemic threshold theorem with social and contact heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincapié Palacio, Doracelly; Ospina Giraldo, Juan; Gómez Arias, Rubén Darío

2008-03-01

The threshold theorem of an epidemic SIR model was compared when infectious and susceptible individuals have homogeneous mixing and heterogeneous social status and when individuals of random networks have contact heterogeneity. Particularly the effect of vaccination in such models is considered when: individuals or nodes are exposed to impoverished, vaccination and loss of immunity. An equilibrium analysis and local stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium values were implemented using computer algebra. Numerical simulations were executed in order to describe the dynamic of transmission of diseases and changes of the basic reproductive rate. The implications of these results are examined around the threats to the global public health security.

Twelve-month-old infants recognize that speech can communicate unobservable intentions.

PubMed

Vouloumanos, Athena; Onishi, Kristine H; Pogue, Amanda

2012-08-07

Much of our knowledge is acquired not from direct experience but through the speech of others. Speech allows rapid and efficient transfer of information that is otherwise not directly observable. Do infants recognize that speech, even if unfamiliar, can communicate about an important aspect of the world that cannot be directly observed: a person's intentions? Twelve-month-olds saw a person (the Communicator) attempt but fail to achieve a target action (stacking a ring on a funnel). The Communicator subsequently directed either speech or a nonspeech vocalization to another person (the Recipient) who had not observed the attempts. The Recipient either successfully stacked the ring (Intended outcome), attempted but failed to stack the ring (Observable outcome), or performed a different stacking action (Related outcome). Infants recognized that speech could communicate about unobservable intentions, looking longer at Observable and Related outcomes than the Intended outcome when the Communicator used speech. However, when the Communicator used nonspeech, infants looked equally at the three outcomes. Thus, for 12-month-olds, speech can transfer information about unobservable aspects of the world such as internal mental states, which provides preverbal infants with a tool for acquiring information beyond their immediate experience.

Twelve-month-old infants recognize that speech can communicate unobservable intentions

PubMed Central

Vouloumanos, Athena; Onishi, Kristine H.; Pogue, Amanda

2012-01-01

Much of our knowledge is acquired not from direct experience but through the speech of others. Speech allows rapid and efficient transfer of information that is otherwise not directly observable. Do infants recognize that speech, even if unfamiliar, can communicate about an important aspect of the world that cannot be directly observed: a person’s intentions? Twelve-month-olds saw a person (the Communicator) attempt but fail to achieve a target action (stacking a ring on a funnel). The Communicator subsequently directed either speech or a nonspeech vocalization to another person (the Recipient) who had not observed the attempts. The Recipient either successfully stacked the ring (Intended outcome), attempted but failed to stack the ring (Observable outcome), or performed a different stacking action (Related outcome). Infants recognized that speech could communicate about unobservable intentions, looking longer at Observable and Related outcomes than the Intended outcome when the Communicator used speech. However, when the Communicator used nonspeech, infants looked equally at the three outcomes. Thus, for 12-month-olds, speech can transfer information about unobservable aspects of the world such as internal mental states, which provides preverbal infants with a tool for acquiring information beyond their immediate experience. PMID:22826217

Role of Ability and Extroversion in Concept Attainment of Individuals Trained in Heterogeneous or Homogeneous Personality Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemke, E. A.; And Others

1974-01-01

Subjects stratified by ability and extroversion initially achieved concept attainment in homogeneous (all introverts or all extroverts) or heterogeneous (one-half of the members extroverts) personality groups. Concepts were attained individually in a subsequent transfer stage. (Authors/JA)

An empirical likelihood ratio test robust to individual heterogeneity for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq.

PubMed

Xu, Maoqi; Chen, Liang

2018-01-01

The individual sample heterogeneity is one of the biggest obstacles in biomarker identification for complex diseases such as cancers. Current statistical models to identify differentially expressed genes between disease and control groups often overlook the substantial human sample heterogeneity. Meanwhile, traditional nonparametric tests lose detailed data information and sacrifice the analysis power, although they are distribution free and robust to heterogeneity. Here, we propose an empirical likelihood ratio test with a mean-variance relationship constraint (ELTSeq) for the differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). As a distribution-free nonparametric model, ELTSeq handles individual heterogeneity by estimating an empirical probability for each observation without making any assumption about read-count distribution. It also incorporates a constraint for the read-count overdispersion, which is widely observed in RNA-seq data. ELTSeq demonstrates a significant improvement over existing methods such as edgeR, DESeq, t-tests, Wilcoxon tests and the classic empirical likelihood-ratio test when handling heterogeneous groups. It will significantly advance the transcriptomics studies of cancers and other complex disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

Evaluation of an educational program on deciphering heterogeneity for medical coverage decisions.

PubMed

Warholak, Terri L; Hilgaertner, Jianhua W; Dean, Joni L; Taylor, Ann M; Hines, Lisa E; Hurwitz, Jason; Brown, Mary; Malone, Daniel C

2014-06-01

It is increasingly important for decision makers, such as medical and pharmacy managers (or pharmacy therapeutics committee members and staff), to understand the variation and diversity in treatment response as decisions shift from an individual patient perspective to optimizing care for populations of patients. To assess the effectiveness of an instructional program on heterogeneity designed for medical and pharmacy managers. A live educational program was offered to members of the Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy at the fall 2012 educational meeting and also to medical directors and managers attending a national payer roundtable meeting in October 2012. Participants completed a retrospective pretest-posttest assessment of their knowledge, attitudes, and self-efficacy immediately following the program. Participants were offered the opportunity to participate in a follow-up assessment 6 months later. Willing participants for the follow-up assessment were contacted via e-mail and telephone. Rasch rating scale models were used to compare pre- and postscores measuring participants' knowledge about and attitude towards heterogeneity. A total of 49 individuals completed the retrospective pretest-posttest assessment and agreed to be a part of the program evaluation. Fifty percent (n = 25) of participants had heard of the phrase "heterogeneity of treatment effect," and 36 (72%) were familiar with the phrase "individualized treatment effect" prior to the live program. Participants reported a significant improvement in knowledge of heterogeneity (P  less than  0.01) and attitudes about heterogeneity (P  less than  0.01) immediately after attending the program. At the time of the educational program, participants had either never considered heterogeneity (26%) or reported not knowing (28%) whether their organizations considered it when determining basic coverage. Participants were more likely to report "sometimes" considering heterogeneity for determining necessity for individual appeals, prior authorization, tier placement for pharmaceutical therapies, and other types of medical management. At the 6-month follow-up, 21 of the 49 willing participants (43% response rate) completed the evaluation; participants continued to have a good understanding of heterogeneity, but there was no significant difference in attitudes towards heterogeneity between pre- and 6-month follow-up. A live educational program was effective in improving participants' immediate knowledge and attitudes regarding the topic of heterogeneity. Participating managed care pharmacists and medical managers indicated that heterogeneity of treatment effect was likely to be used in determining prior authorizations and determining necessity.

Multilevel Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data with Heterogeneous Autoregressive Errors: The Effect of Misspecification and Correction with Cholesky Transformation

PubMed Central

Jahng, Seungmin; Wood, Phillip K.

2017-01-01

Intensive longitudinal studies, such as ecological momentary assessment studies using electronic diaries, are gaining popularity across many areas of psychology. Multilevel models (MLMs) are most widely used analytical tools for intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Although ILD often have individually distinct patterns of serial correlation of measures over time, inferences of the fixed effects, and random components in MLMs are made under the assumption that all variance and autocovariance components are homogenous across individuals. In the present study, we introduced a multilevel model with Cholesky transformation to model ILD with individually heterogeneous covariance structure. In addition, the performance of the transformation method and the effects of misspecification of heterogeneous covariance structure were investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation. We found that, if individually heterogeneous covariances are incorrectly assumed as homogenous independent or homogenous autoregressive, MLMs produce highly biased estimates of the variance of random intercepts and the standard errors of the fixed intercept and the fixed effect of a level 2 covariate when the average autocorrelation is high. For intensive longitudinal data with individual specific residual covariance, the suggested transformation method showed lower bias in those estimates than the misspecified models when the number of repeated observations within individuals is 50 or more. PMID:28286490

Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

PubMed

Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

2016-02-01

Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be present over a longer timespan than 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of war on infant mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Lindskog, Elina Elveborg

2016-10-06

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has suffered from war and lingering conflicts in East DRC and has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world. Prior research has documented increases in infant and child mortality associated with war, but the empirical evidence is limited in several respects. Measures of conflict are quite crude or conflict is not tightly linked to periods of exposure to infant death. Few studies have distinguished between the effects of war on neonatal versus post-neonatal infants. No study has considered possible differences between women who give birth during wartime and those who do not that may be related to greater infant mortality. The analysis used the nationally representative sample of 15,103 mothers and 53,768 children from the 2007 and 2013/2014 Demographic Health Survey in the DRC and indicators of conflict events and conflict deaths from the 2013 Uppsala Conflict Data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity across women, a multi-level modeling approach was followed by grouping all births for each woman and estimating random intercepts in discrete time event history models. Post-neonatal mortality increased during the Congolese wars, and was highest where conflict events and deaths were extreme. Neonatal mortality was not associated with conflict levels. Infant mortality was not higher in East DRC, where conflicts continued during the post Congolese war period. Models specifying unobserved differences between mothers who give birth during war and those who have children in peacetime did not reduce the estimated effect of war, i.e., no support was found for selectivity in the sample of births during war. Differences in effects of the Congolese war on neonatal versus post-neonatal mortality suggest that conflict influences the conditions of infants' lives more than the aspects of mothers' pregnancy conditions and delivery that are relevant for infant mortality. These differences may, however, be specific to the nature of conflict and prior conditions in the DRC. Because of continued political instability, violent conflict may be expected to continue in contexts such as the DRC; we must therefore continue to document, analyze and monitor the mechanisms through which war influences infant mortality.

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

Dynamics of Multiple Trafficking Behaviors of Individual Synaptic Vesicles Revealed by Quantum-Dot Based Presynaptic Probe

PubMed Central

Lee, Suho; Jung, Kyung Jin; Jung, Hyun Suk; Chang, Sunghoe

2012-01-01

Although quantum dots (QDs) have provided invaluable information regarding the diffusive behaviors of postsynaptic receptors, their application in presynaptic terminals has been rather limited. In addition, the diffraction-limited nature of the presynaptic bouton has hampered detailed analyses of the behaviors of synaptic vesicles (SVs) at synapses. Here, we created a quantum-dot based presynaptic probe and characterized the dynamic behaviors of individual SVs. As previously reported, the SVs exhibited multiple exchanges between neighboring boutons. Actin disruption induced a dramatic decrease in the diffusive behaviors of SVs at synapses while microtubule disruption only reduced extrasynaptic mobility. Glycine-induced synaptic potentiation produced significant increases in synaptic and inter-boutonal trafficking of SVs, which were NMDA receptor- and actin-dependent while NMDA-induced synaptic depression decreased the mobility of the SVs at synapses. Together, our results show that sPH-AP-QD revealed previously unobserved trafficking properties of SVs around synapses, and the dynamic modulation of SV mobility could regulate presynaptic efficacy during synaptic activity. PMID:22666444

On the importance of considering heterogeneity in witnesses' competence levels when reconstructing crimes from multiple witness testimonies.

PubMed

Waubert de Puiseau, Berenike; Greving, Sven; Aßfalg, André; Musch, Jochen

2017-09-01

Aggregating information across multiple testimonies may improve crime reconstructions. However, different aggregation methods are available, and research on which method is best suited for aggregating multiple observations is lacking. Furthermore, little is known about how variance in the accuracy of individual testimonies impacts the performance of competing aggregation procedures. We investigated the superiority of aggregation-based crime reconstructions involving multiple individual testimonies and whether this superiority varied as a function of the number of witnesses and the degree of heterogeneity in witnesses' ability to accurately report their observations. Moreover, we examined whether heterogeneity in competence levels differentially affected the relative accuracy of two aggregation procedures: a simple majority rule, which ignores individual differences, and the more complex general Condorcet model (Romney et al., Am Anthropol 88(2):313-338, 1986; Batchelder and Romney, Psychometrika 53(1):71-92, 1988), which takes into account differences in competence between individuals. 121 participants viewed a simulated crime and subsequently answered 128 true/false questions about the crime. We experimentally generated groups of witnesses with homogeneous or heterogeneous competences. Both the majority rule and the general Condorcet model provided more accurate reconstructions of the observed crime than individual testimonies. The superiority of aggregated crime reconstructions involving multiple individual testimonies increased with an increasing number of witnesses. Crime reconstructions were most accurate when competences were heterogeneous and aggregation was based on the general Condorcet model. We argue that a formal aggregation should be considered more often when eyewitness testimonies have to be assessed and that the general Condorcet model provides a good framework for such aggregations.

Exploration of pathways related to the decline in female circumcision in Egypt.

PubMed

Modrek, Sepideh; Liu, Jenny X

2013-10-03

There has been a large decline in female genital circumcision (FGC) in Egypt in recent decades. Understanding how this change has occurred so rapidly has been an area of particular interest to policymakers and public health officials alike who seek to further discourage the practice elsewhere. We document the trends in this decline in the newest cohorts of young girls and explore the influences of three pathways--socioeconomic development, social media messages, and women's empowerment--for explaining the observed trends. Using the 2005 and 2008 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate several logistic regression models to (1) examine individual and household determinants of circumcision, (2) assess the contributions of different pathways through which these changes may have occurred, and (3) assess the robustness of different pathways when unobserved community differences are taken into account. Across all communities, socioeconomic status, social media messages, and women's empowerment all have significant independent effects on the risk of circumcision. However, after accounting for unobserved differences across communities, only mother's education and household wealth significantly predict circumcision outcomes. Additional analyses of maternal education suggest that increases in women's education may be causally related to the reduction in FGC prevalence. Women's empowerment and social media appear to be more important in explaining differences across communities; within communities, socioeconomic status is a key driver of girls' circumcision risk. Further investigation of community-level women's educational attainment for mothers suggests that investments made in female education a generation ago may have had echo effects on girls' FGC risk a generation later.

Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

2015-05-01

The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

Data Fabrication and Falsification and Empiricist Philosophy of Science

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.

2014-01-01

Scientists have rules pertaining to data fabrication and falsification that are enforced with significant punishments, such as loss of funding, termination of employment, or imprisonment. These rules pertain to data that describe observable and unobservable entities. In this commentary I argue that scientists would not adopt rules that impose harsh penalties on researchers for data fabrication or falsification unless they believed that an aim of scientific research is to develop true theories and hypotheses about entities that exist, including unobservable ones. This argument presents a challenge for constructive empiricists, such as van Fraassen. Constructive empiricists need to be able to explain why rules pertaining to data fabrication and falsification do not threaten their philosophy of science. PMID:23982326

Data fabrication and falsification and empiricist philosophy of science.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2014-06-01

Scientists have rules pertaining to data fabrication and falsification that are enforced with significant punishments, such as loss of funding, termination of employment, or imprisonment. These rules pertain to data that describe observable and unobservable entities. In this commentary I argue that scientists would not adopt rules that impose harsh penalties on researchers for data fabrication or falsification unless they believed that an aim of scientific research is to develop true theories and hypotheses about entities that exist, including unobservable ones. This argument presents a challenge for constructive empiricists, such as van Fraassen. Constructive empiricists need to be able to explain why rules pertaining to data fabrication and falsification do not threaten their philosophy of science.

Diel horizontal migration in streams: juvenile fish exploit spatial heterogeneity in thermal and trophic resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, Jonathan B.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Ruff, Casey P.; Brooks, Gabriel T.; Bentley, Kale E.; Torgersen, Christian E.

2013-01-01

Vertical heterogeneity in the physical characteristics of lakes and oceans is ecologically salient and exploited by a wide range of taxa through diel vertical migration to enhance their growth and survival. Whether analogous behaviors exploit horizontal habitat heterogeneity in streams is largely unknown. We investigated fish movement behavior at daily timescales to explore how individuals integrated across spatial variation in food abundance and water temperature. Juvenile coho salmon made feeding forays into cold habitats with abundant food, and then moved long distances (350–1300 m) to warmer habitats that accelerated their metabolism and increased their assimilative capacity. This behavioral thermoregulation enabled fish to mitigate trade-offs between trophic and thermal resources by exploiting thermal heterogeneity. Fish that exploited thermal heterogeneity grew at substantially faster rates than did individuals that assumed other behaviors. Our results provide empirical support for the importance of thermal diversity in lotic systems, and emphasize the importance of considering interactions between animal behavior and habitat heterogeneity when managing and restoring ecosystems.

Farms, Families, and Markets: New Evidence on Completeness of Markets in Agricultural Settings

PubMed Central

LaFave, Daniel; Thomas, Duncan

2016-01-01

The farm household model has played a central role in improving the understanding of small-scale agricultural households and non-farm enterprises. Under the assumptions that all current and future markets exist and that farmers treat all prices as given, the model simplifies households’ simultaneous production and consumption decisions into a recursive form in which production can be treated as independent of preferences of household members. These assumptions, which are the foundation of a large literature in labor and development, have been tested and not rejected in several important studies including Benjamin (1992). Using multiple waves of longitudinal survey data from Central Java, Indonesia, this paper tests a key prediction of the recursive model: demand for farm labor is unrelated to the demographic composition of the farm household. The prediction is unambiguously rejected. The rejection cannot be explained by contamination due to unobserved heterogeneity that is fixed at the farm level, local area shocks or farm-specific shocks that affect changes in household composition and farm labor demand. We conclude that the recursive form of the farm household model is not consistent with the data. Developing empirically tractable models of farm households when markets are incomplete remains an important challenge. PMID:27688430

The Association Between Unintended Births and Poor Child Development in India: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Singh, Abhishek; Upadhyay, Ashish Kumar; Singh, Ashish; Kumar, Kaushalendra

2017-03-01

Evidence on the association between unintended births and poor child development in developing countries is limited. We used data from three waves of the Young Lives study on childhood poverty conducted in Andhra Pradesh in 2002, 2006-07, and 2009 to examine the association between unintended births and poor child development in India. Multivariable linear regression models were used to examine the association between unintended births and four indicators of child development-height-for-age Z-score (HAZ), Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) score, Mathematics Achievement Test (MAT) score, and Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) test score. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique was also used to analyze data. Children who were reported as unintended at birth had significantly lower HAZ, PPVT, and EGRA scores compared with those who were reported as intended. PSM results support the findings from the multivariable linear regressions. Our findings provide evidence on the association between unintended births and poor child development in India. There may be a need to reposition family planning within India's reproductive and child health care programs. Future studies must take into account the unobserved heterogeneity that our study could not address fully. © 2017 The Population Council, Inc.

Heterogeneous Two-Phase Pillars in Epitaxial NiFe 2 O 4 -LaFeO 3 Nanocomposites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comes, Ryan B.; Perea, Daniel E.; Spurgeon, Steven R.

2017-07-10

Self-assembled epitaxial oxide nanocomposites have been explored for a wide range of applications, including multiferroic and magnetoelectric properties, plasmonics, and catalysis. These so-called “vertically aligned nanocomposites” form spontaneously during the deposition process when segregation into two phases is energetically favorable as compared to a solid solution. However, there has been surprisingly little work understanding the driving forces that govern the synthesis of these materials, which can include point defect energetics, surface diffusion, and interfacial energies. To explore these factors, La-Ni-Fe-O films have been synthesized by molecular beam epitaxy and it is shown that these phase segregate into spinel-perovskite nanocomposites. Usingmore » complementary scanning transmission electron microscopy and atom-probe tomography, the elemental composition of each phase is examined and found that Ni ions are exclusively found in the spinel phase. From correlative analysis, a model for the relative favorability of the Ni2+ and Ni3+ valences under the growth conditions is developed. It is shown that multidimensional characterization techniques provide previously unobserved insight into the growth process and complex driving forces for phase segregation.« less

How do marital status, work effort, and wage rates interact?

PubMed

Ahituv, Avner; Lerman, Robert I

2007-08-01

How marital status interacts with men's earnings is an important analytic and policy issue, especially in the context of debates in the United States over programs that encourage healthy marriage. This paper generates new findings about the earnings-marriage relationship by estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates. The estimates are based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel data, covering 23 years of marital and labor market outcomes, and control for unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate marriage effects on hours worked (our proxy for work effort) and on wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately. The estimates reveal that entering marriage raises hours worked quickly and substantially but that marriage's effect on wage rates takes place more slowly while men continue in marriage. Together; the stimulus to hours worked and wage rates generates an 18%-19% increase in earnings, with about one-third to one-half of the marriage earnings premium attributable to higher work effort. At the same time, higher wage rates and hours worked encourage men to marry and to stay married. Thus, being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.

Using amphiphilic nanostructures to enable long-range ensemble coalescence and surface rejuvenation in dropwise condensation.

PubMed

Anderson, David M; Gupta, Maneesh K; Voevodin, Andrey A; Hunter, Chad N; Putnam, Shawn A; Tsukruk, Vladimir V; Fedorov, Andrei G

2012-04-24

Controlling coalescence events in a heterogeneous ensemble of condensing droplets on a surface is an outstanding fundamental challenge in surface and interfacial sciences, with a broad practical importance in applications ranging from thermal management of high-performance electronic devices to moisture management in high-humidity environments. Nature-inspired superhydrophobic surfaces have been actively explored to enhance heat and mass transfer rates by achieving favorable dynamics during dropwise condensation; however, the effectiveness of such chemically homogeneous surfaces has been limited because condensing droplets tend to form as pinned Wenzel drops rather than mobile Cassie ones. Here, we introduce an amphiphilic nanostructured surface, consisting of a hydrophilic base with hydrophobic tips, which promotes the periodic regeneration of nucleation sites for small droplets, thus rendering the surface self-rejuvenating. This unique amphiphilic nanointerface generates an arrangement of condensed Wenzel droplets that are fluidically linked by a wetted sublayer, promoting previously unobserved coalescence events where numerous droplets simultaneously merge, without direct contact. Such ensemble coalescences rapidly create fresh nucleation sites, thereby shifting the overall population toward smaller droplets and enhancing the rates of mass and heat transfer during condensation.

Inferring modes of colonization for pest species using heterozygosity comparisons and a shared-allele test.

PubMed

Sved, J A; Yu, H; Dominiak, B; Gilchrist, A S

2003-02-01

Long-range dispersal of a species may involve either a single long-distance movement from a core population or spreading via unobserved intermediate populations. Where the new populations originate as small propagules, genetic drift may be extreme and gene frequency or assignment methods may not prove useful in determining the relation between the core population and outbreak samples. We describe computationally simple resampling methods for use in this situation to distinguish between the different modes of dispersal. First, estimates of heterozygosity can be used to test for direct sampling from the core population and to estimate the effective size of intermediate populations. Second, a test of sharing of alleles, particularly rare alleles, can show whether outbreaks are related to each other rather than arriving as independent samples from the core population. The shared-allele statistic also serves as a genetic distance measure that is appropriate for small samples. These methods were applied to data on a fruit fly pest species, Bactrocera tryoni, which is quarantined from some horticultural areas in Australia. We concluded that the outbreaks in the quarantine zone came from a heterogeneous set of genetically differentiated populations, possibly ones that overwinter in the vicinity of the quarantine zone.

A Bayesian method for detecting pairwise associations in compositional data

PubMed Central

Ventz, Steffen; Huttenhower, Curtis

2017-01-01

Compositional data consist of vectors of proportions normalized to a constant sum from a basis of unobserved counts. The sum constraint makes inference on correlations between unconstrained features challenging due to the information loss from normalization. However, such correlations are of long-standing interest in fields including ecology. We propose a novel Bayesian framework (BAnOCC: Bayesian Analysis of Compositional Covariance) to estimate a sparse precision matrix through a LASSO prior. The resulting posterior, generated by MCMC sampling, allows uncertainty quantification of any function of the precision matrix, including the correlation matrix. We also use a first-order Taylor expansion to approximate the transformation from the unobserved counts to the composition in order to investigate what characteristics of the unobserved counts can make the correlations more or less difficult to infer. On simulated datasets, we show that BAnOCC infers the true network as well as previous methods while offering the advantage of posterior inference. Larger and more realistic simulated datasets further showed that BAnOCC performs well as measured by type I and type II error rates. Finally, we apply BAnOCC to a microbial ecology dataset from the Human Microbiome Project, which in addition to reproducing established ecological results revealed unique, competition-based roles for Proteobacteria in multiple distinct habitats. PMID:29140991

Sex-biased dispersal and spatial heterogeneity affect landscape resistance to gene flow in fisher

Treesearch

Jody M. Tucker; Fred W. Allendorf; Richard L. Truex; Michael K. Schwartz

2017-01-01

Genetic connectivity results from the dispersal and reproduction of individuals across landscapes. Mammalian populations frequently exhibit sex-biased dispersal, but this factor has rarely been addressed in individual-based landscape genetics research. In this study, we evaluate the effects of sexbiased dispersal and landscape heterogeneity on genetic connectivity in a...

PA-GFP: a window into the subcellular adventures of the individual mitochondrion.

PubMed

Haigh, Sarah E; Twig, Gilad; Molina, Anthony A J; Wikstrom, Jakob D; Deutsch, Motti; Shirihai, Orian S

2007-01-01

Mitochondrial connectivity is characterized by matrix lumen continuity and by dynamic rewiring through fusion and fission events. While these mechanisms homogenize the mitochondrial population, a number of studies looking at mitochondrial membrane potential have demonstrated that mitochondria exist as a heterogeneous population within individual cells. To address the relationship between mitochondrial dynamics and heterogeneity, we tagged and tracked individual mitochondria over time while monitoring their mitochondrial membrane potential (deltapsi(m)). By utilizing photoactivatible-GFP (PA-GFP), targeted to the mitochondrial matrix, we determined the boundaries of the individual mitochondrion. A single mitochondrion is defined by the continuity of its matrix lumen. The boundaries set by luminal continuity matched those set by electrical coupling, indicating that the individual mitochondrion is equipotential throughout the entire organelle. Similar results were obtained with PA-GFP targeted to the inner membrane indicating that matrix continuity parallels inner membrane continuity. Sequential photoconversion of matrix PA-GFP in multiple locations within the mitochondrial web reveals that each ramified mitochondrial structure is composed of juxtaposed but discontinuous units. Moreover, as many as half of the events in which mitochondria come into contact, do not result in fusion. While all fission events generated two electrically uncoupled discontinuous matrices, the two daughter mitochondria frequently remained juxtaposed, keeping the tubular appearance unchanged. These morphologically invisible fission events illustrate the difference between mitochondrial fission and fragmentation; the latter representing the movement and separation of disconnected units. Simultaneous monitoring of deltapsi(m) of up to four individual mitochondria within the same cell revealed that subcellular heterogeneity in deltapsi(m) does not represent multiple unstable mitochondria that appear 'heterogeneous' at any given point, but rather multiple stable, but heterogeneous units.

A perfect correlate does not a surrogate make

PubMed Central

Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S

2003-01-01

Background There is common belief among some medical researchers that if a potential surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with a true endpoint, then a positive (or negative) difference in potential surrogate endpoints between randomization groups would imply a positive (or negative) difference in unobserved true endpoints between randomization groups. We investigate this belief when the potential surrogate and unobserved true endpoints are perfectly correlated within each randomization group. Methods We use a graphical approach. The vertical axis is the unobserved true endpoint and the horizontal axis is the potential surrogate endpoint. Perfect correlation within each randomization group implies that, for each randomization group, potential surrogate and true endpoints are related by a straight line. In this scenario the investigator does not know the slopes or intercepts. We consider a plausible example where the slope of the line is higher for the experimental group than for the control group. Results In our example with unknown lines, a decrease in mean potential surrogate endpoints from control to experimental groups corresponds to an increase in mean true endpoint from control to experimental groups. Thus the potential surrogate endpoints give the wrong inference. Similar results hold for binary potential surrogate and true outcomes (although the notion of correlation does not apply). The potential surrogate endpointwould give the correct inference if either (i) the unknown lines for the two group coincided, which means that the distribution of true endpoint conditional on potential surrogate endpoint does not depend on treatment group, which is called the Prentice Criterion or (ii) if one could accurately predict the lines based on data from prior studies. Conclusion Perfect correlation between potential surrogate and unobserved true outcomes within randomized groups does not guarantee correct inference based on a potential surrogate endpoint. Even in early phase trials, investigators should not base conclusions on potential surrogate endpoints in which the only validation is high correlation with the true endpoint within a group. PMID:12962545

When does weight matter most?

PubMed

Chen, Alice J

2012-01-01

Past empirical work establishes a wage penalty from being overweight. In this paper, I exploit variation in an individual's weight over time to determine the age when weight has the largest impact on labor market outcomes. For white men, controlling for weight at younger ages does not eliminate the effect of older adult weight on wage: being overweight as a young adult only adds an additional penalty to adult wages. However, for white women, what they weigh in their early twenties solely determines the existence of an adult wage penalty. The female early-twenties weight penalty has a persistent effect on wages, and differences in marital characteristics, occupation status, or education cannot explain it. It also is not a proxy for intergenerational unobservables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of heterogeneous response on coupled spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Xiaoyu; Tang, Ming; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang; Zhou, Jie

2017-10-01

Many recent studies have demonstrated that individual awareness of disease may significantly affect the spreading process of infectious disease. In the majority of these studies, the response of the awareness is generally treated homogeneously. Considering of diversity and heterogeneity in the human behavior which widely exist under different circumstances, in this paper we study heterogeneous response when people are aware of the prevalence of infectious diseases. Specifically, we consider that an individual with more neighbors may take more preventive measures as a reaction when he is aware of the disease. A suppression strength is introduced to describe such heterogeneity, and we find that a more evident heterogeneity may cause a more effective suppressing effect to the spreading of epidemics. A mean-field theory is developed to support the results which are verified on the multiplex networks with different interlayer degree correlation.

Individual heterogeneity in growth and age at sexual maturity: A gamma process analysis of capture–mark–recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William; Hesed, Kyle Miller

2015-01-01

Knowledge of organisms’ growth rates and ages at sexual maturity is important for conservation efforts and a wide variety of studies in ecology and evolutionary biology. However, these life history parameters may be difficult to obtain from natural populations: individuals encountered may be of unknown age, information on age at sexual maturity may be uncertain and interval-censored, and growth data may include both individual heterogeneity and measurement errors. We analyzed mark–recapture data for Red-backed Salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to compare sex-specific growth rates and ages at sexual maturity. Aging of individuals was made possible by the use of a von Bertalanffy model of growth, complemented with models for interval-censored and imperfect observations at sexual maturation. Individual heterogeneity in growth was modeled through the use of Gamma processes. Our analysis indicates that female P. cinereus mature earlier and grow more quickly than males, growing to nearly identical asymptotic size distributions as males.

Heterogeneous Effects of a Nonlinear Price Schedule for Outpatient Care.

PubMed

Farbmacher, Helmut; Ihle, Peter; Schubert, Ingrid; Winter, Joachim; Wuppermann, Amelie

2017-10-01

Nonlinear price schedules generally have heterogeneous effects on health-care demand. We develop and apply a finite mixture bivariate probit model to analyze whether there are heterogeneous reactions to the introduction of a nonlinear price schedule in the German statutory health insurance system. In administrative insurance claims data from the largest German health insurance plan, we find that some individuals strongly react to the new price schedule while a second group of individuals does not react. Post-estimation analyses reveal that the group of the individuals who do not react to the reform includes the relatively sick. These results are in line with forward-looking behavior: Individuals who are already sick expect that they will hit the kink in the price schedule and thus are less sensitive to the co-payment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A fixed-effects multilevel analysis of how community family structure affects individual mortality in Norway.

PubMed

Kravdal, Øystein

2007-08-01

By using register data for the entire Norwegian population aged 50-89 in the period 1980-1999, during which there were about 720,000 deaths, I estimate how the proportions of persons who were divorced or never married in the municipality affected all-cause mortality, net of individual marital status. The data include individual histories of changes in marital status and places of residence, providing a rare opportunity to enter municipality fixed effects into the model, thereby capturing the time-invariant unobserved factors at that level. The positive health externality of marriage that is suggested in the literature is supported by some of the estimates for women. Other estimates--especially those for men--point in the opposite direction. One possible interpretation of these findings is that social cohesion is perhaps not as beneficial for people's health as often claimed, at least not for both sexes. Alternatively, the results may reflect that marriage perhaps undermines rather than strengthens social cohesion, or that other mechanisms are involved-for example, those that are related to people 's perceptions of their health relative to the health of others. Estimates from models without such municipality fixed effects are markedly different, but these also shed doubt on the notion that a high proportion of unmarried persons generally increases individual mortality.

DRUG-NEM: Optimizing drug combinations using single-cell perturbation response to account for intratumoral heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Anchang, Benedict; Davis, Kara L.; Fienberg, Harris G.; Bendall, Sean C.; Karacosta, Loukia G.; Tibshirani, Robert; Nolan, Garry P.; Plevritis, Sylvia K.

2018-01-01

An individual malignant tumor is composed of a heterogeneous collection of single cells with distinct molecular and phenotypic features, a phenomenon termed intratumoral heterogeneity. Intratumoral heterogeneity poses challenges for cancer treatment, motivating the need for combination therapies. Single-cell technologies are now available to guide effective drug combinations by accounting for intratumoral heterogeneity through the analysis of the signaling perturbations of an individual tumor sample screened by a drug panel. In particular, Mass Cytometry Time-of-Flight (CyTOF) is a high-throughput single-cell technology that enables the simultaneous measurements of multiple (>40) intracellular and surface markers at the level of single cells for hundreds of thousands of cells in a sample. We developed a computational framework, entitled Drug Nested Effects Models (DRUG-NEM), to analyze CyTOF single-drug perturbation data for the purpose of individualizing drug combinations. DRUG-NEM optimizes drug combinations by choosing the minimum number of drugs that produce the maximal desired intracellular effects based on nested effects modeling. We demonstrate the performance of DRUG-NEM using single-cell drug perturbation data from tumor cell lines and primary leukemia samples. PMID:29654148

The Demand for Higher Education: A Static Structural Approach Accounting for Individual Heterogeneity and Nesting Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flannery, Darragh; O'Donoghue, Cathal

2013-01-01

In this paper we estimate a structural model of higher education participation and labour choices in a static setting that accounts for individual heterogeneity and possible nesting structures in the decision process. We assume that young people that complete upper secondary education are faced with three choices, go to higher education, not go to…

Gender Wage Gap Accounting: The Role of Selection Bias.

PubMed

Bar, Michael; Kim, Seik; Leukhina, Oksana

2015-10-01

Mulligan and Rubinstein (2008) (MR) argued that changing selection of working females on unobservable characteristics, from negative in the 1970s to positive in the 1990s, accounted for nearly the entire closing of the gender wage gap. We argue that their female wage equation estimates are inconsistent. Correcting this error substantially weakens the role of the rising selection bias (39 % versus 78 %) and strengthens the contribution of declining discrimination (42 % versus 7 %). Our findings resonate better with related literature. We also explain why our finding of positive selection in the 1970s provides additional support for MR's main hypothesis that an exogenous rise in the market value of unobservable characteristics contributed to the closing of the gender gap.

Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Hill, Jason M.; Fritz, Lowell; Chumbley, Kathryn; Luxa, Katie; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible.Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments.We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible.In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

Quantifying preferences for the natural world using monetary and nonmonetary assessments of value.

PubMed

Dallimer, Martin; Tinch, Dugald; Hanley, Nick; Irvine, Katherine N; Rouquette, James R; Warren, Philip H; Maltby, Lorraine; Gaston, Kevin J; Armsworth, Paul R

2014-04-01

Given that funds for biodiversity conservation are limited, there is a need to understand people's preferences for its different components. To date, such preferences have largely been measured in monetary terms. However, how people value biodiversity may differ from economic theory, and there is little consensus over whether monetary metrics are always appropriate or the degree to which other methods offer alternative and complementary perspectives on value. We used a choice experiment to compare monetary amounts recreational visitors to urban green spaces were willing to pay for biodiversity enhancement (increases in species richness for birds, plants, and aquatic macroinvertebrates) with self-reported psychological gains in well-being derived from visiting the same sites. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates were significant and positive, and respondents reported high gains in well-being across 3 axes derived from environmental psychology theories (reflection, attachment, continuity with past). The 2 metrics were broadly congruent. Participants with above-median self-reported well-being scores were willing to pay significantly higher amounts for enhancing species richness than those with below-median scores, regardless of taxon. The socio-economic and demographic background of participants played little role in determining either their well-being or the probability of choosing a paying option within the choice experiment. Site-level environmental characteristics were only somewhat related to WTP, but showed strong associations with self-reported well-being. Both approaches are likely to reflect a combination of the environmental properties of a site and unobserved individual preference heterogeneity for the natural world. Our results suggest that either metric will deliver mutually consistent results in an assessment of environmental preferences, although which approach is preferable depends on why one wishes to measure values for the natural world. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Influence of Nutrient Availability and Quorum Sensing on the Formation of Metabolically Inactive Microcolonies Within Structurally Heterogeneous Bacterial Biofilms: An Individual-Based 3D Cellular Automata Model.

PubMed

Machineni, Lakshmi; Rajapantul, Anil; Nandamuri, Vandana; Pawar, Parag D

2017-03-01

The resistance of bacterial biofilms to antibiotic treatment has been attributed to the emergence of structurally heterogeneous microenvironments containing metabolically inactive cell populations. In this study, we use a three-dimensional individual-based cellular automata model to investigate the influence of nutrient availability and quorum sensing on microbial heterogeneity in growing biofilms. Mature biofilms exhibited at least three structurally distinct strata: a high-volume, homogeneous region sandwiched between two compact sections of high heterogeneity. Cell death occurred preferentially in layers in close proximity to the substratum, resulting in increased heterogeneity in this section of the biofilm; the thickness and heterogeneity of this lowermost layer increased with time, ultimately leading to sloughing. The model predicted the formation of metabolically dormant cellular microniches embedded within faster-growing cell clusters. Biofilms utilizing quorum sensing were more heterogeneous compared to their non-quorum sensing counterparts, and resisted sloughing, featuring a cell-devoid layer of EPS atop the substratum upon which the remainder of the biofilm developed. Overall, our study provides a computational framework to analyze metabolic diversity and heterogeneity of biofilm-associated microorganisms and may pave the way toward gaining further insights into the biophysical mechanisms of antibiotic resistance.

Group search algorithm recovers effective connectivity maps for individuals in homogeneous and heterogeneous samples.

PubMed

Gates, Kathleen M; Molenaar, Peter C M

2012-10-15

At its best, connectivity mapping can offer researchers great insight into how spatially disparate regions of the human brain coordinate activity during brain processing. A recent investigation conducted by Smith and colleagues (2011) on methods for estimating connectivity maps suggested that those which attempt to ascertain the direction of influence among ROIs rarely provide reliable results. Another problem gaining increasing attention is heterogeneity in connectivity maps. Most group-level methods require that the data come from homogeneous samples, and misleading findings may arise from current methods if the connectivity maps for individuals vary across the sample (which is likely the case). The utility of maps resulting from effective connectivity on the individual or group levels is thus diminished because they do not accurately inform researchers. The present paper introduces a novel estimation technique for fMRI researchers, Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME), which demonstrates that using information across individuals assists in the recovery of the existence of connections among ROIs used by Smith and colleagues (2011) and the direction of the influence. Using heterogeneous in-house data, we demonstrate that GIMME offers a unique improvement over current approaches by arriving at reliable group and individual structures even when the data are highly heterogeneous across individuals comprising the group. An added benefit of GIMME is that it obtains reliable connectivity map estimates equally well using the data from resting state, block, or event-related designs. GIMME provides researchers with a powerful, flexible tool for identifying directed connectivity maps at the group and individual levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Single-cell gene expression analysis reveals diversity among human spermatogonia.

PubMed

Neuhaus, N; Yoon, J; Terwort, N; Kliesch, S; Seggewiss, J; Huge, A; Voss, R; Schlatt, S; Grindberg, R V; Schöler, H R

2017-02-10

Is the molecular profile of human spermatogonia homogeneous or heterogeneous when analysed at the single-cell level? Heterogeneous expression profiles may be a key characteristic of human spermatogonia, supporting the existence of a heterogeneous stem cell population. Despite the fact that many studies have sought to identify specific markers for human spermatogonia, the molecular fingerprint of these cells remains hitherto unknown. Testicular tissues from patients with spermatogonial arrest (arrest, n = 1) and with qualitatively normal spermatogenesis (normal, n = 7) were selected from a pool of 179 consecutively obtained biopsies. Gene expression analyses of cell populations and single-cells (n = 105) were performed. Two OCT4-positive individual cells were selected for global transcriptional capture using shallow RNA-seq. Finally, expression of four candidate markers was assessed by immunohistochemistry. Histological analysis and blood hormone measurements for LH, FSH and testosterone were performed prior to testicular sample selection. Following enzymatic digestion of testicular tissues, differential plating and subsequent micromanipulation of individual cells was employed to enrich and isolate human spermatogonia, respectively. Endpoint analyses were qPCR analysis of cell populations and individual cells, shallow RNA-seq and immunohistochemical analyses. Unexpectedly, single-cell expression data from the arrest patient (20 cells) showed heterogeneous expression profiles. Also, from patients with normal spermatogenesis, heterogeneous expression patterns of undifferentiated (OCT4, UTF1 and MAGE A4) and differentiated marker genes (BOLL and PRM2) were obtained within each spermatogonia cluster (13 clusters with 85 cells). Shallow RNA-seq analysis of individual human spermatogonia was validated, and a spermatogonia-specific heterogeneous protein expression of selected candidate markers (DDX5, TSPY1, EEF1A1 and NGN3) was demonstrated. The heterogeneity of human spermatogonia at the RNA and protein levels is a snapshot. To further assess the functional meaning of this heterogeneity and the dynamics of stem cell populations, approaches need to be developed to facilitate the repeated analysis of individual cells. Our data suggest that heterogeneous expression profiles may be a key characteristic of human spermatogonia, supporting the model of a heterogeneous stem cell population. Future studies will assess the dynamics of spermatogonial populations in fertile and infertile patients. RNA-seq data is published in the GEO database: GSE91063. This work was supported by the Max Planck Society and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG-Research Unit FOR 1041 Germ Cell Potential (grant numbers SCHO 340/7-1, SCHL394/11-2). The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Effect of heterogeneity and shape on optical properties of urban dust based on three-dimensional modeling of individual particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conny, Joseph M.; Ortiz-Montalvo, Diana L.

2017-09-01

We show the effect of composition heterogeneity and shape on the optical properties of urban dust particles based on the three-dimensional spatial and optical modeling of individual particles. Using scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX) and focused ion beam (FIB) tomography, spatial models of particles collected in Los Angeles and Seattle accounted for surface features, inclusions, and voids, as well as overall composition and shape. Using voxel data from the spatial models and the discrete dipole approximation method, we report extinction efficiency, asymmetry parameter, and single-scattering albedo (SSA). Test models of the particles involved (1) the particle's actual morphology as a single homogeneous phase and (2) simple geometric shapes (spheres, cubes, and tetrahedra) depicting composition homogeneity or heterogeneity (with multiple spheres). Test models were compared with a reference model, which included the particle's actual morphology and heterogeneity based on SEM/EDX and FIB tomography. Results show particle shape to be a more important factor for determining extinction efficiency than accounting for individual phases in a particle, regardless of whether absorption or scattering dominated. In addition to homogeneous models with the particles' actual morphology, tetrahedral geometric models provided better extinction accuracy than spherical or cubic models. For iron-containing heterogeneous particles, the asymmetry parameter and SSA varied with the composition of the iron-containing phase, even if the phase was <10% of the particle volume. For particles containing loosely held phases with widely varying refractive indexes (i.e., exhibiting "severe" heterogeneity), only models that account for heterogeneity may sufficiently determine SSA.

Accounting for overdispersion when determining primary care outliers for the identification of chronic kidney disease: learning from the National Chronic Kidney Disease Audit.

PubMed

Kim, Lois G; Caplin, Ben; Cleary, Faye; Hull, Sally A; Griffith, Kathryn; Wheeler, David C; Nitsch, Dorothea

2017-04-01

Early diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) facilitates best management in primary care. Testing coverage of those at risk and translation into subsequent diagnostic coding will impact on observed CKD prevalence. Using initial data from 915 general practitioner (GP) practices taking part in a UK national audit, we seek to apply appropriate methods to identify outlying practices in terms of CKD stages 3-5 prevalence and diagnostic coding. We estimate expected numbers of CKD stages 3-5 cases in each practice, adjusted for key practice characteristics, and further inflate the control limits to account for overdispersion related to unobserved factors (including unobserved risk factors for CKD, and between-practice differences in coding and testing). GP practice prevalence of coded CKD stages 3-5 ranges from 0.04 to 7.8%. Practices differ considerably in coding of CKD in individuals where CKD is indicated following testing (ranging from 0 to 97% of those with and glomerular filtration rate  <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ). After adjusting for risk factors and overdispersion, the number of  'extreme' practices is reduced from 29 to 2.6% for the low-coded CKD prevalence outcome, from 21 to 1% for high-uncoded CKD stage and from 22 to 2.4% for low total (coded and uncoded) CKD prevalence. Thirty-one practices are identified as outliers for at least one of these outcomes. These can then be categorized into practices needing to address testing, coding or data storage/transfer issues. GP practice prevalence of coded CKD shows wide variation. Accounting for overdispersion is crucial in providing useful information about outlying practices for CKD prevalence. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Groundwars Version 5.0. User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-08-01

model, Monte Carlo, land duel , heterogeneous forces, TANKWARS, target acquisition, combat survivability 19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary...land duel between two heterogeneous forces. The model simuJ.ates individual weapon systems and employs Monte Carlo probability theory as its primary...is a weapon systems effectiveness model which provides the results of a land duel between two forces. The model simulates individual weapon systems

Smart Grid Integrity Attacks: Characterizations and Countermeasures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annarita Giani; Eilyan Bitar; Miles McQueen

2011-10-01

Real power injections at loads and generators, and real power flows on selected lines in a transmission network are monitored, transmitted over a SCADA network to the system operator, and used in state estimation algorithms to make dispatch, re-balance and other energy management system [EMS] decisions. Coordinated cyber attacks of power meter readings can be arranged to be undetectable by any bad data detection algorithm. These unobservable attacks present a serious threat to grid operations. Of particular interest are sparse attacks that involve the compromise of a modest number of meter readings. An efficient algorithm to find all unobservable attacksmore » [under standard DC load flow approximations] involving the compromise of exactly two power injection meters and an arbitrary number of power meters on lines is presented. This requires O(n2m) flops for a power system with n buses and m line meters. If all lines are metered, there exist canonical forms that characterize all 3, 4, and 5-sparse unobservable attacks. These can be quickly detected in power systems using standard graph algorithms. Known secure phase measurement units [PMUs] can be used as countermeasures against an arbitrary collection of cyber attacks. Finding the minimum number of necessary PMUs is NP-hard. It is shown that p + 1 PMUs at carefully chosen buses are sufficient to neutralize a collection of p cyber attacks.« less

Cooperation prevails when individuals adjust their social ties.

PubMed

Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-10-20

Conventional evolutionary game theory predicts that natural selection favours the selfish and strong even though cooperative interactions thrive at all levels of organization in living systems. Recent investigations demonstrated that a limiting factor for the evolution of cooperative interactions is the way in which they are organized, cooperators becoming evolutionarily competitive whenever individuals are constrained to interact with few others along the edges of networks with low average connectivity. Despite this insight, the conundrum of cooperation remains since recent empirical data shows that real networks exhibit typically high average connectivity and associated single-to-broad-scale heterogeneity. Here, a computational model is constructed in which individuals are able to self-organize both their strategy and their social ties throughout evolution, based exclusively on their self-interest. We show that the entangled evolution of individual strategy and network structure constitutes a key mechanism for the sustainability of cooperation in social networks. For a given average connectivity of the population, there is a critical value for the ratio W between the time scales associated with the evolution of strategy and of structure above which cooperators wipe out defectors. Moreover, the emerging social networks exhibit an overall heterogeneity that accounts very well for the diversity of patterns recently found in acquired data on social networks. Finally, heterogeneity is found to become maximal when W reaches its critical value. These results show that simple topological dynamics reflecting the individual capacity for self-organization of social ties can produce realistic networks of high average connectivity with associated single-to-broad-scale heterogeneity. On the other hand, they show that cooperation cannot evolve as a result of "social viscosity" alone in heterogeneous networks with high average connectivity, requiring the additional mechanism of topological co-evolution to ensure the survival of cooperative behaviour.

Convergence to consensus in heterogeneous groups and the emergence of informal leadership.

PubMed

Gavrilets, Sergey; Auerbach, Jeremy; van Vugt, Mark

2016-07-14

When group cohesion is essential, groups must have efficient strategies in place for consensus decision-making. Recent theoretical work suggests that shared decision-making is often the most efficient way for dealing with both information uncertainty and individual variation in preferences. However, some animal and most human groups make collective decisions through particular individuals, leaders, that have a disproportionate influence on group decision-making. To address this discrepancy between theory and data, we study a simple, but general, model that explicitly focuses on the dynamics of consensus building in groups composed by individuals who are heterogeneous in preferences, certain personality traits (agreeability and persuasiveness), reputation, and social networks. We show that within-group heterogeneity can significantly delay democratic consensus building as well as give rise to the emergence of informal leaders, i.e. individuals with a disproportionately large impact on group decisions. Our results thus imply strong benefits of leadership particularly when groups experience time pressure and significant conflict of interest between members (due to various between-individual differences). Overall, our models shed light on why leadership and decision-making hierarchies are widespread, especially in human groups.

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

PubMed

Vaupel, J W; Manton, K G; Stallard, E

1979-08-01

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

2018-02-01

Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

Microclimate and habitat heterogeneity as the major drivers of beetle diversity in dead wood

Treesearch

Sebastian Seibold; Claus Bassler; Roland Brandl; Boris Buche; Alexander Szallies; Simon Thorn; Michael D. Ulyshen; Jorg Muller; Christopher Baraloto

2016-01-01

1. Resource availability and habitat heterogeneity are principle drivers of biodiversity, but their individual roles often remain unclear since both factors are usually correlated. The biodiversity of species dependent on dead wood could be driven by either resource availability represented by dead-wood amount or habitat heterogeneity characterized by dead-wood...

Impact of heterogeneity and socioeconomic factors on individual behavior in decentralized sharing ecosystems.

PubMed

Gavaldà-Miralles, Arnau; Choffnes, David R; Otto, John S; Sánchez, Mario A; Bustamante, Fabián E; Amaral, Luís A N; Duch, Jordi; Guimerà, Roger

2014-10-28

Tens of millions of individuals around the world use decentralized content distribution systems, a fact of growing social, economic, and technological importance. These sharing systems are poorly understood because, unlike in other technosocial systems, it is difficult to gather large-scale data about user behavior. Here, we investigate user activity patterns and the socioeconomic factors that could explain the behavior. Our analysis reveals that (i) the ecosystem is heterogeneous at several levels: content types are heterogeneous, users specialize in a few content types, and countries are heterogeneous in user profiles; and (ii) there is a strong correlation between socioeconomic indicators of a country and users behavior. Our findings open a research area on the dynamics of decentralized sharing ecosystems and the socioeconomic factors affecting them, and may have implications for the design of algorithms and for policymaking.

Inference on cancer screening exam accuracy using population-level administrative data.

PubMed

Jiang, H; Brown, P E; Walter, S D

2016-01-15

This paper develops a model for cancer screening and cancer incidence data, accommodating the partially unobserved disease status, clustered data structures, general covariate effects, and dependence between exams. The true unobserved cancer and detection status of screening participants are treated as latent variables, and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate the Bayesian posterior distributions of the diagnostic error rates and disease prevalence. We show how the Bayesian approach can be used to draw inferences about screening exam properties and disease prevalence while allowing for the possibility of conditional dependence between two exams. The techniques are applied to the estimation of the diagnostic accuracy of mammography and clinical breast examination using data from the Ontario Breast Screening Program in Canada. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of downsizing on remaining workers' sickness absence.

PubMed

Østhus, Ståle; Mastekaasa, Arne

2010-10-01

It is generally assumed that organizational downsizing has considerable negative consequences, not only for workers that are laid off, but also for those who remain employed. The empirical evidence with regard to effects on sickness absence is, however, inconsistent. This study employs register data covering a major part of the total workforce in Norway over the period 2000-2003. The number of sickness absence episodes and the number of sickness absence days are analysed by means of Poisson regression. To control for both observed and unobserved stable individual characteristics, we use conditional (fixed effects) estimation. The analyses provide some weak indications that downsizing may lead to slightly less sickness absence, but the overall impression is that downsizing has few if any effects on the sickness absence of the remaining employees. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The African Genome Variation Project shapes medical genetics in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurdasani, Deepti; Carstensen, Tommy; Tekola-Ayele, Fasil; Pagani, Luca; Tachmazidou, Ioanna; Hatzikotoulas, Konstantinos; Karthikeyan, Savita; Iles, Louise; Pollard, Martin O.; Choudhury, Ananyo; Ritchie, Graham R. S.; Xue, Yali; Asimit, Jennifer; Nsubuga, Rebecca N.; Young, Elizabeth H.; Pomilla, Cristina; Kivinen, Katja; Rockett, Kirk; Kamali, Anatoli; Doumatey, Ayo P.; Asiki, Gershim; Seeley, Janet; Sisay-Joof, Fatoumatta; Jallow, Muminatou; Tollman, Stephen; Mekonnen, Ephrem; Ekong, Rosemary; Oljira, Tamiru; Bradman, Neil; Bojang, Kalifa; Ramsay, Michele; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Bekele, Endashaw; Motala, Ayesha; Norris, Shane A.; Pirie, Fraser; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Kwiatkowski, Dominic; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Rotimi, Charles; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Sandhu, Manjinder S.

2015-01-01

Given the importance of Africa to studies of human origins and disease susceptibility, detailed characterization of African genetic diversity is needed. The African Genome Variation Project provides a resource with which to design, implement and interpret genomic studies in sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide. The African Genome Variation Project represents dense genotypes from 1,481 individuals and whole-genome sequences from 320 individuals across sub-Saharan Africa. Using this resource, we find novel evidence of complex, regionally distinct hunter-gatherer and Eurasian admixture across sub-Saharan Africa. We identify new loci under selection, including loci related to malaria susceptibility and hypertension. We show that modern imputation panels (sets of reference genotypes from which unobserved or missing genotypes in study sets can be inferred) can identify association signals at highly differentiated loci across populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Using whole-genome sequencing, we demonstrate further improvements in imputation accuracy, strengthening the case for large-scale sequencing efforts of diverse African haplotypes. Finally, we present an efficient genotype array design capturing common genetic variation in Africa.

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command.

PubMed

Daza, Eric J; Hudgens, Michael G; Herring, Amy H

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241-258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study.

The African Genome Variation Project shapes medical genetics in Africa.

PubMed

Gurdasani, Deepti; Carstensen, Tommy; Tekola-Ayele, Fasil; Pagani, Luca; Tachmazidou, Ioanna; Hatzikotoulas, Konstantinos; Karthikeyan, Savita; Iles, Louise; Pollard, Martin O; Choudhury, Ananyo; Ritchie, Graham R S; Xue, Yali; Asimit, Jennifer; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Young, Elizabeth H; Pomilla, Cristina; Kivinen, Katja; Rockett, Kirk; Kamali, Anatoli; Doumatey, Ayo P; Asiki, Gershim; Seeley, Janet; Sisay-Joof, Fatoumatta; Jallow, Muminatou; Tollman, Stephen; Mekonnen, Ephrem; Ekong, Rosemary; Oljira, Tamiru; Bradman, Neil; Bojang, Kalifa; Ramsay, Michele; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Bekele, Endashaw; Motala, Ayesha; Norris, Shane A; Pirie, Fraser; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Kwiatkowski, Dominic; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Rotimi, Charles; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Sandhu, Manjinder S

2015-01-15

Given the importance of Africa to studies of human origins and disease susceptibility, detailed characterization of African genetic diversity is needed. The African Genome Variation Project provides a resource with which to design, implement and interpret genomic studies in sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide. The African Genome Variation Project represents dense genotypes from 1,481 individuals and whole-genome sequences from 320 individuals across sub-Saharan Africa. Using this resource, we find novel evidence of complex, regionally distinct hunter-gatherer and Eurasian admixture across sub-Saharan Africa. We identify new loci under selection, including loci related to malaria susceptibility and hypertension. We show that modern imputation panels (sets of reference genotypes from which unobserved or missing genotypes in study sets can be inferred) can identify association signals at highly differentiated loci across populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Using whole-genome sequencing, we demonstrate further improvements in imputation accuracy, strengthening the case for large-scale sequencing efforts of diverse African haplotypes. Finally, we present an efficient genotype array design capturing common genetic variation in Africa.

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command

PubMed Central

Hudgens, Michael G.; Herring, Amy H.

2017-01-01

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241–258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study. PMID:29755297

Heterogeneity of allocation promotes cooperation in public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Chuang; Wu, Te; Jia, Jian-Yuan; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2010-11-01

We investigate the effects of heterogeneous investment and distribution on the evolution of cooperation in the context of the public goods games. To do this, we develop a simple model in which each individual allocates differing funds to his direct neighbors based upon their difference in connectivity, because of the heterogeneity of real social ties. This difference is characterized by the weight of the link between paired individuals, with an adjustable parameter precisely controlling the heterogeneous level of ties. By numerical simulations, it is found that allocating both too much and too little funds to diverse neighbors can remarkably improve the cooperation level. However, there exists a worst mode of funds allocation leading to the most unfavorable cooperation induced by the moderate values of the parameter. In order to better reveal the potential causes behind these nontrivial phenomena we probe the microscopic characteristics including the average payoff and the cooperator density for individuals of different degrees. It demonstrates rather different dynamical behaviors between the modes of these two types of cooperation promoter. Besides, we also investigate the total link weights of individuals numerically and theoretically for negative values of the parameter, and conclude that the payoff magnitude of middle-degree nodes plays a crucial role in determining the cooperators’ fate.

Subcloning the RBL-2H3 mucosal mast cell line reduces Ca2+ response heterogeneity at the single-cell level.

PubMed

Kuchtey, J; Fewtrell, C

1996-03-01

Ca2+ imaging experiments have revealed that for a wide variety of cell types, including RBL-2H3 mucosal mast cells, there are considerable cell-to-cell differences of the Ca2+ responses of individual cells. This heterogeneity is evident in both the shape and latency of the responses. Mast cells within a single microscopic field of view, which have experienced identical culture conditions and experimental preparation, display a wide variety of responses upon antigen stimulation. We have subcloned the RBL-2H3 mucosal mast cell line to test the hypothesis that genetic heterogeneity within the population is the cause of the Ca2+ response heterogeneity. We found that cell-to-cell variability was significantly reduced in four of five clonal lines. The response heterogeneity remaining within the clones was not an experimental artifact caused by differences in the amount of fura-2 loaded by individual cells. Factors other than genetic heterogeneity must partly account for Ca2+ response heterogeneity. It is possible that the complex shapes and variability of the Ca2+ responses are reflections of the fact that there are multiple factors underlying the Ca2-response to antigen stimulation. Small differences from cell to cell in one or more of these factors could be a cause of the remaining Ca2+ response heterogeneity.

Heterogeneity of long-history migration predicts emotion recognition accuracy.

PubMed

Wood, Adrienne; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Niedenthal, Paula M

2016-06-01

Recent work (Rychlowska et al., 2015) demonstrated the power of a relatively new cultural dimension, historical heterogeneity, in predicting cultural differences in the endorsement of emotion expression norms. Historical heterogeneity describes the number of source countries that have contributed to a country's present-day population over the last 500 years. People in cultures originating from a large number of source countries may have historically benefited from greater and clearer emotional expressivity, because they lacked a common language and well-established social norms. We therefore hypothesized that in addition to endorsing more expressive display rules, individuals from heterogeneous cultures will also produce facial expressions that are easier to recognize by people from other cultures. By reanalyzing cross-cultural emotion recognition data from 92 papers and 82 cultures, we show that emotion expressions of people from heterogeneous cultures are more easily recognized by observers from other cultures than are the expressions produced in homogeneous cultures. Heterogeneity influences expression recognition rates alongside the individualism-collectivism of the perceivers' culture, as more individualistic cultures were more accurate in emotion judgments than collectivistic cultures. This work reveals the present-day behavioral consequences of long-term historical migration patterns and demonstrates the predictive power of historical heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Effects of heterogeneous wealth distribution on public cooperation with collective risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Fu, Feng; Wang, Long

2010-07-01

The distribution of wealth among individuals in real society can be well described by the Pareto principle or “80-20 rule.” How does such heterogeneity in initial wealth distribution affect the emergence of public cooperation, when individuals, the rich and the poor, engage in a collective-risk enterprise, not to gain a profit but to avoid a potential loss? Here we address this issue by studying a simple but effective model based on threshold public goods games. We analyze the evolutionary dynamics for two distinct scenarios, respectively: one with fair sharers versus defectors and the other with altruists versus defectors. For both scenarios, particularly, we in detail study the dynamics of the population with dichotomic initial wealth—the rich versus the poor. Moreover, we demonstrate the possible steady compositions of the population and provide the conditions for stability of these steady states. We prove that in a population with heterogeneous wealth distribution, richer individuals are more likely to cooperate than poorer ones. Participants with lower initial wealth may choose to cooperate only if all players richer than them are cooperators. The emergence of pubic cooperation largely relies on rich individuals. Furthermore, whenever the wealth gap between the rich and the poor is sufficiently large, cooperation of a few rich individuals can substantially elevate the overall level of social cooperation, which is in line with the well-known Pareto principle. Our work may offer an insight into the emergence of cooperative behavior in real social situations where heterogeneous distribution of wealth among individual is omnipresent.

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques

PubMed Central

Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs. PMID:26501964

Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

2015-01-01

Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that if time-invariant unobservables are not present, matching combined with differences in means or cross-sectional regression leads to similar estimates of program effectiveness as matching combined with fixed effects panel regression. These results highlight the importance of considering observable and unobservable forms of bias and the methodological assumptions across estimators when designing an impact evaluation of conservation programs.

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

Three essays on the incentive structure of energy conservation programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okwelum, Edson Ogochukwu

This dissertation is comprised of three related essays examining the potential effectiveness of government energy efficiency programs from both the producer and consumer perspectives. The first chapter is based on a paper I coauthored with Corey Lang. In this manuscript, I address the question of whether strategic behavior by consumers could result in the erosion of energy savings in a demand response program. Understanding how the strategic behavior of consumers affects the net benefits from a demand response program has policy implications because of the increasing importance that demand response has come to play in utility load and reliability management during peak times. Using data from a large field experiment in California in 2007, we test the hypothesis that under a technology program, consumers' strategic behavior results in outcomes that are opposite what is obtainable under a program with price incentive or based of behavior. Chapter II is also an empirical study which explores how the preferences of consumers for large and heavy vehicles imposes costs on society in the form of external costs of accident. This chapter looks at how fleet changes in weight distribution due to corporate average fuel economy and consumer demand for heavier vehicles results in fatalities. It is important to understand how consumer behavior affects the accident rates so that one can obtain unbiased estimates of accident costs that go into benefit-cost analysis of the impact of regulations in automobiles. Chapter three addresses how unobserved heterogeneity and sorting affect the estimates of the consumer willingness to pay for reduction in future gasoline costs. This tradeoff is important to policy makers and manufactures because it could help explain why manufacturers fail to adopt technologies for which the fuel savings far outweigh the costs. The remainder of the abstract provides a more detailed outlines of the three essays. Chapter 1 explores strategic behavior by consumers in demand response programs. The chapter looks at how the confluences of consumer strategic behavior, technology and price incentives in demand response lead to conflicting outcomes. Demand response has become an important tool for utilities to manage load during peak periods. While the effects of demand response programs on peak load reductions are well studied and intuitive, assessments typically fail to recognize the potential for off-peak behavioral responses that may mitigate the total benefits of the program. Using smart meter consumption data on residential air conditioning units enrolled in a direct load control program, this paper examines changes in consumption prior to and after curtailment events. The manuscript rigorously estimates both peak and off peak changes in consumption to better understand net benefits of DR programs. We examine Pacific Gas and Electric's (PG&E) SmartAC program, which is designed to reduce peak cooling load by directly controlling air conditioning units of participants. Usually, program evaluation uses the availability of a control group to obtain unbiased estimates of program impacts. However, we do not have the luxury of a control group in our data. Instead we estimate unit-specific non-linear consumption models and then compare load on event days to predicted load. Importantly, we use data from the summer 2007 training period from a stratified random sample of 294 participating AC units. In contrast to subsequent summers and normal DR designs, during the training period curtailment days were called for many different temperature levels, not just the hottest days. This aspect means we are not predicting out of sample, and we can have greater confidence in our econometric evidence. Our methodology is validated by a falsification test in which we find no changes in consumption during peak or off-peak times on non-curtailment days that match the temperature and timing profile of actual curtailment days. Several key results emerge from this analysis. First, we confirm that the SmartAC program, like other DR and DLC programs, reduces peak load during event days. In this case, peak consumption was reduced 19% on average. However, we also find substantial increases in consumption in the hours preceding and the hours following an event by 8% and 7% respectively. Essentially, load is being displaced from peak to off-peak times. These behavioral changes mitigate the monetary benefits of the program by 41%. Chapter II addresses the question of how much accident risks would change if consumers who purchase larger, heavier vehicles of the existing fleet where to behave strategically given regulatory constraints imposed by corporate average fuel economy. The paper estimates both the risk of dying given a crash and the crash frequencies of different vehicles in the fleet. We use a unique data set that combines data from fatality analysis reporting system (FARS) and NASS General Estimates Systems. The estimation strategy used corrects for selection bias due to moral hazard problems. The two equations are estimated simultaneously using simulated maximum likelihood without the need for exclusion restrictions (Green 2003, 2007). This approach allows us to obtain estimates that are causal. One of the main issues that have been left unanswered in earlier works is the existence of Peltzman-type moral hazard problems and endogeneity of vehicle choice. In the presence of Peltzman-type moral hazard problems, drivers in heavier vehicles will find it advantageous to change their behavior in ways that have opposite effect to regulations. From a public policy perspective if increasing the weight of a vehicle increases the probability of its being involved in collisions, then we might be interested in more than the impact of heavier vehicles conditional on a crash occurring. We find that increasing the weight of any vehicle increases the probability of it being the heavier vehicle in a collision and the probability of it being involved in a fatal accident. The external costs translate to about 38 cents/gallon of gasoline. Chapter III explores how individual unobserved heterogeneity in tastes could lead to different customers sorting into different classes of fuel efficient vehicles and therefore affect estimates of consumer's ability to tradeoff vehicle costs and discounted future gasoline costs. The research question is important for several reasons. First, it is interesting from a theoretical basis if consumers make this trade off optimally. Many theoretical models in economics make the fundamental assumption that consumers equally weigh current and future events when making decisions today. However, plenty empirical and laboratory evidence conclude the contrary. Second, Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIA) of regulations on energy efficiency standards usually find that the benefits of these programs are in many times larger than the costs, with the fuel savings over the life of the vehicle accounting for the majority of the benefits. However, if fuel savings are large relative to costs, then the question is why are manufacturers not incorporating these technologies in their product offerings? Therefore understanding energy paradox is critical for evaluating the standards and regulations so that policy makers can identify baseline for assessment in cost-benefit analyses. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on Energy Paradox in Fuel Economy by providing empirical evidence that unobserved consumer heterogeneity could result in different consumers sorting into different classes of fuel efficient cars which results in consumers undervaluing fuel economy. Unlike existing literature in this topic, this paper accounts for sorting bias due unobserved heterogeneity by using a random coefficient logit with error components (Train and Winston 2007). We pair the random coefficient discrete choice model with a supply side model in which firms compete in Bertrand Nash fashion where price depends on elasticity of demand and marginal costs. With the random utility model, we can allow taste to vary across consumers. We treat the discounted operating costs and vehicle costs as random variables. We find that a substantial portion of upper the 95% of households in our sample correctly value fuel economy (61%) as they are willing to pay 0.99 to reduce obtain a 1.00 discounted future gasoline costs over the lifetime of the vehicle. And 29% of the upper 95% overvalue fuel economy as they are willing to pay $1.57. These results are in contrast to those reported elsewhere by Alcott and Wozny (2009) but support results from the simulation study by Bento et al 2012 who find that not accounting for sorting bias and consumer heterogeneity could lead to a conclusion that consumers undervalue fuel economy.

Modeling vaccination in a heterogeneous metapopulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachiany, Menachem

2016-09-01

We present here a multicity SIS epidemic model with vaccination. The model describes the dynamics of heterogeneous metapopulations that contain imperfectly vaccinated individuals. The effect of vaccination on heterogeneous multicity models has not been previously studied. We show that under very generic conditions, the epidemic threshold does not depend on the diffusion coefficient of the vaccinated individuals, but it does depend on the diffusion coefficient of the infected population. We then show, using a novel methodology, that the reproduction number is determined by the homogeneous model parameters and by the maximal number of neighbors a city can have, when the diffusion coefficient of the infected population is low. Finally, we present numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

Impact of heterogeneity and socioeconomic factors on individual behavior in decentralized sharing ecosystems

PubMed Central

Gavaldà-Miralles, Arnau; Choffnes, David R.; Otto, John S.; Sánchez, Mario A.; Bustamante, Fabián E.; Amaral, Luís A. N.; Duch, Jordi; Guimerà, Roger

2014-01-01

Tens of millions of individuals around the world use decentralized content distribution systems, a fact of growing social, economic, and technological importance. These sharing systems are poorly understood because, unlike in other technosocial systems, it is difficult to gather large-scale data about user behavior. Here, we investigate user activity patterns and the socioeconomic factors that could explain the behavior. Our analysis reveals that (i) the ecosystem is heterogeneous at several levels: content types are heterogeneous, users specialize in a few content types, and countries are heterogeneous in user profiles; and (ii) there is a strong correlation between socioeconomic indicators of a country and users behavior. Our findings open a research area on the dynamics of decentralized sharing ecosystems and the socioeconomic factors affecting them, and may have implications for the design of algorithms and for policymaking. PMID:25288755

Identifying Mobility Types in Cognitively Heterogeneous Older Adults Based on GPS-Tracking: What Discriminates Best?

PubMed

Wettstein, Markus; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Shoval, Noam; Auslander, Gail; Oswald, Frank; Heinik, Jeremia

2015-12-01

Heterogeneity in older adults' mobility and its correlates have rarely been investigated based on objective mobility data and in samples including cognitively impaired individuals. We analyzed mobility profiles within a cognitively heterogeneous sample of N = 257 older adults from Israel and Germany based on GPS tracking technology. Participants were aged between 59 and 91 years (M = 72.9; SD = 6.4) and were either cognitively healthy (CH, n = 146), mildly cognitively impaired (MCI, n = 76), or diagnosed with an early-stage dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT, n = 35). Based on cluster analysis, we identified three mobility types ("Mobility restricted," "Outdoor oriented," "Walkers"), which could be predicted based on socio-demographic indicators, activity, health, and cognitive impairment status using discriminant analysis. Particularly demented individuals and persons with worse health exhibited restrictions in mobility. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of heterogeneity in mobility in old age. © The Author(s) 2013.

Examination of factors associated with use rates after transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet use law.

PubMed

Russo, Brendan J; Barrette, Timothy P; Morden, Jeffery; Savolainen, Peter T; Gates, Timothy J

2017-01-02

Motorcycle riders account for a disproportionately high number of traffic injuries and fatalities compared to occupants of other vehicle types. Though research has demonstrated the benefits of helmet use in preventing serious and fatal injuries in the event of a crash, helmet use has remained relatively stable in the United States, where the most recent national estimates show a 64% use rate. Use rates have been markedly lower among those states that do not have a universal helmet law for all riders. In 2012, the state of Michigan repealed its longstanding mandatory helmet use law. In order to gain insights as to the effects of this legislative change, a study was conducted to examine short-term changes in helmet use and identify factors associated with use rates. A statewide direct observation survey was conducted 1 year after the transition from a universal helmet law to a partial helmet law. A random parameters logistic regression model was estimated to identify motorcyclist, roadway, and environmental characteristics associated with helmet use. This modeling framework accounts for both intravehicle correlation (between riders and passengers on the same motorcycle) as well as unobserved heterogeneity across riders due to important unobserved factors. Helmet use was shown to vary across demographic segments of the motorcyclist population. Use rates were higher among Caucasian riders, as well as among those age 60 and above. No significant difference was observed between male and female riders. Use was also found to vary geographically, temporally, and with respect to various environmental characteristics. Geographically, helmet use rates tended to be correlated with historical restraint use trends, which may be reflective of riding environment and general differences in the riding population. To this end, rates were also highly variable based upon the type of motorcycle and whether the motorcyclist was wearing high-visibility gear. The study results demonstrate the short-term reduction in helmet use following transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet law. The reduction in use is somewhat less pronounced than has been experienced in other states, which may be reflective of general differences among Michigan motorcyclists because the state has also generally exhibited higher use rates of seat belts and other forms of occupant protection. The study results also highlight potential target areas for subsequent education and public awareness initiatives aimed at increasing helmet use.

High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Abhishek

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. In the fixed dimensional setting we provide the oracle properties associated with the proposed estimators. In the high dimensional setting, we provide bounds for the statistical error associated with the estimation, that hold with asymptotic probability 1, thereby providing the ℓ1-consistency of the proposed estimator. We also establish the model selection consistency in terms of the correctly estimated zero components of the parameter vector. A simulation study that investigates the finite sample accuracy of the proposed estimator is also included in this chapter.

Heterogeneity and the Effect of Mental Health Parity Mandates on the Labor Market*

PubMed Central

Andersen, Martin

2015-01-01

Health insurance benefit mandates are believed to have adverse effects on the labor market, but efforts to document such effects for mental health parity mandates have had limited success. I show that one reason for this failure is that the association between parity mandates and labor market outcomes vary with mental distress. Accounting for this heterogeneity, I find adverse labor market effects for non-distressed individuals, but favorable effects for moderately distressed individuals and individuals with a moderately distressed family member. On net, I conclude that the mandates are welfare increasing for moderately distressed workers and their families, but may be welfare decreasing for non-distressed individuals. PMID:26210944

The impact of family structure transitions on youth achievement: evidence from the children of the NLSY79.

PubMed

Aughinbaugh, Alison; Pierret, Charles R; Rothstein, Donna S

2005-08-01

We investigated the sensitivity of measures of cognitive ability and socioemotional development to changes in parents' marital status using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979. We used several scores for each assessment, taken at different times relative to parents' marital transitions, which allowed us to trace the effects starting up to five years before a parent's change in marital status and continuing for up to six years afterward. It also allowed us to correct for the unobserved heterogeneity of the transition and nontransition samples by controlling for the child's fixed effect in estimating the time path of his or her response to the transition. We found that children from families with both biological parents scored significantly better on the BPI and the PIAT-math and PIAT-reading assessments than did children from nonintact families. However, much of the difference disappeared when we controlled for background variables. Furthermore, when we controlled for child fixed effects, we did not find significant longitudinal variation in these scores over long periods that encompass the marital transition. This finding suggests that most of the variation is due to cross-sectional differences and is not a result of marital transitions per se.

Crash Frequency Analysis Using Hurdle Models with Random Effects Considering Short-Term Panel Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Ma, Xiaoxiang; Chen, Suren; Yang, Lin

2016-01-01

Random effect panel data hurdle models are established to research the daily crash frequency on a mountainous section of highway I-70 in Colorado. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) real-time traffic and weather and road surface conditions are merged into the models incorporating road characteristics. The random effect hurdle negative binomial (REHNB) model is developed to study the daily crash frequency along with three other competing models. The proposed model considers the serial correlation of observations, the unbalanced panel-data structure, and dominating zeroes. Based on several statistical tests, the REHNB model is identified as the most appropriate one among four candidate models for a typical mountainous highway. The results show that: (1) the presence of over-dispersion in the short-term crash frequency data is due to both excess zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data; and (2) the REHNB model is suitable for this type of data. Moreover, time-varying variables including weather conditions, road surface conditions and traffic conditions are found to play importation roles in crash frequency. Besides the methodological advancements, the proposed technology bears great potential for engineering applications to develop short-term crash frequency models by utilizing detailed data from field monitoring data such as RWIS, which is becoming more accessible around the world. PMID:27792209

Examination of youth sexual and reproductive health transitions in Nigeria and Kenya using longitudinal data.

PubMed

Speizer, Ilene S; Guilkey, David; Calhoun, Lisa M; Corroon, Meghan; O'Hara, Rick

2017-01-31

The adolescent (ages 15-19) and young adult (ages 20-24) years are a crucial time as many sexual and reproductive health (SRH) transitions take place in these years. The study of youth SRH transitions in sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to a paucity of longitudinal data needed to examine the timing and circumstances of these transitions. This paper uses recently collected longitudinal data from select urban areas in Kenya and Nigeria that include a large youth sample at baseline (2010/2011) and endline (2014). We control for unobserved heterogeneity in our modelling approach to correct for selectivity issues that are often ignored in similar types of analyses. We demonstrate that the transition patterns (i.e., sexual initiation, first marriage, and first pregnancy/birth) differ within and across the urban areas and countries studied. Urban Kenyan youth have more premarital sex and pregnancy than youth from the Nigerian cities. Further analyses demonstrate that more educated and wealthier youth transition later than their less educated and poorer counterparts. The findings from this study can be used to inform programs seeking to serve young people based on their varying reproductive health needs in different contexts over the adolescent and young adult years.

When does time matter? maternal employment, children's time with parents, and child development.

PubMed

Hsin, Amy; Felfe, Christina

2014-10-01

This study tests the two assumptions underlying popularly held notions that maternal employment negatively affects children because it reduces time spent with parents: (1) that maternal employment reduces children's time with parents, and (2) that time with parents affects child outcomes. We analyze children's time-diary data from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and use child fixed-effects and IV estimations to account for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that working mothers trade quantity of time for better "quality" of time. On average, maternal work has no effect on time in activities that positively influence children's development, but it reduces time in types of activities that may be detrimental to children's development. Stratification by mothers' education reveals that although all children, regardless of mother's education, benefit from spending educational and structured time with their mothers, mothers who are high school graduates have the greatest difficulty balancing work and child care. We find some evidence that fathers compensate for maternal employment by increasing types of activities that can foster child development as well as types of activities that may be detrimental. Overall, we find that the effects of maternal employment are ambiguous because (1) employment does not necessarily reduce children's time with parents, and (2) not all types of parental time benefit child development.

The effect of public awareness campaigns on suicides: evidence from Nagoya, Japan.

PubMed

Matsubayashi, Tetsuya; Ueda, Michiko; Sawada, Yasuyuki

2014-01-01

Public awareness campaigns about depression and suicide have been viewed as highly effective strategies in preventing suicide, yet their effectiveness has not been established in previous studies. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a public-awareness campaign by comparing suicide counts before and after a city-wide campaign in Nagoya, Japan, where the city government distributed promotional materials that were aimed to stimulate public awareness of depression and promote care-seeking behavior during the period of 2010-2012. In each of the sixteen wards of the city of Nagoya, we count the number of times that the promotional materials were distributed per month and then examine the association between the suicide counts and the frequency of distributions in the months following such distributions. We run a Poisson regression model that controls for the effects of ward-specific observed and unobserved heterogeneities and temporal shocks. Our analysis indicates that more frequent distribution of the campaign material is associated with a decrease in the number of suicides in the subsequent months. The campaign was estimated to have been especially effective for the male residents of the city. The underlying mechanism of how the campaign reduced suicides remains to be unclear. Public awareness campaigns can be an effective strategy in preventing suicide. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias correction in the hierarchical likelihood approach to the analysis of multivariate survival data.

PubMed

Jeon, Jihyoun; Hsu, Li; Gorfine, Malka

2012-07-01

Frailty models are useful for measuring unobserved heterogeneity in risk of failures across clusters, providing cluster-specific risk prediction. In a frailty model, the latent frailties shared by members within a cluster are assumed to act multiplicatively on the hazard function. In order to obtain parameter and frailty variate estimates, we consider the hierarchical likelihood (H-likelihood) approach (Ha, Lee and Song, 2001. Hierarchical-likelihood approach for frailty models. Biometrika 88, 233-243) in which the latent frailties are treated as "parameters" and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. We find that the H-likelihood estimators perform well when the censoring rate is low, however, they are substantially biased when the censoring rate is moderate to high. In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement bias correction method for the H-likelihood estimators under a shared frailty model. We also extend the method to a multivariate frailty model, which incorporates complex dependence structure within clusters. We conduct an extensive simulation study and show that the proposed approach performs very well for censoring rates as high as 80%. We also illustrate the method with a breast cancer data set. Since the H-likelihood is the same as the penalized likelihood function, the proposed bias correction method is also applicable to the penalized likelihood estimators.

Estimating the acute health effects of coarse particulate matter accounting for exposure measurement error.

PubMed

Chang, Howard H; Peng, Roger D; Dominici, Francesca

2011-10-01

In air pollution epidemiology, there is a growing interest in estimating the health effects of coarse particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 μm. Coarse PM concentrations can exhibit considerable spatial heterogeneity because the particles travel shorter distances and do not remain suspended in the atmosphere for an extended period of time. In this paper, we develop a modeling approach for estimating the short-term effects of air pollution in time series analysis when the ambient concentrations vary spatially within the study region. Specifically, our approach quantifies the error in the exposure variable by characterizing, on any given day, the disagreement in ambient concentrations measured across monitoring stations. This is accomplished by viewing monitor-level measurements as error-prone repeated measurements of the unobserved population average exposure. Inference is carried out in a Bayesian framework to fully account for uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. Finally, by using different exposure indicators, we investigate the sensitivity of the association between coarse PM and daily hospital admissions based on a recent national multisite time series analysis. Among Medicare enrollees from 59 US counties between the period 1999 and 2005, we find a consistent positive association between coarse PM and same-day admission for cardiovascular diseases.

Chapter 5: Modulation Excitation Spectroscopy with Phase-Sensitive Detection for Surface Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shulda, Sarah; Richards, Ryan M.

Advancements in in situ spectroscopic techniques have led to significant progress being made in elucidating heterogeneous reaction mechanisms. The potential of these progressive methods is often limited only by the complexity of the system and noise in the data. Short-lived intermediates can be challenging, if not impossible, to identify with conventional spectra analysis means. Often equally difficult is separating signals that arise from active and inactive species. Modulation excitation spectroscopy combined with phase-sensitive detection analysis is a powerful tool for removing noise from the data while simultaneously revealing the underlying kinetics of the reaction. A stimulus is applied at amore » constant frequency to the reaction system, for example, a reactant cycled with an inert phase. Through mathematical manipulation of the data, any signal contributing to the overall spectra but not oscillating with the same frequency as the stimulus will be dampened or removed. With phase-sensitive detection, signals oscillating with the stimulus frequency but with various lag times are amplified providing valuable kinetic information. In this chapter, some examples are provided from the literature that have successfully used modulation excitation spectroscopy with phase-sensitive detection to uncover previously unobserved reaction intermediates and kinetics. Examples from a broad range of spectroscopic methods are included to provide perspective to the reader.« less

Multidisciplinary design and analytic approaches to advance prospective research on the multilevel determinants of child health.

PubMed

Johnson, Sara B; Little, Todd D; Masyn, Katherine; Mehta, Paras D; Ghazarian, Sharon R

2017-06-01

Characterizing the determinants of child health and development over time, and identifying the mechanisms by which these determinants operate, is a research priority. The growth of precision medicine has increased awareness and refinement of conceptual frameworks, data management systems, and analytic methods for multilevel data. This article reviews key methodological challenges in cohort studies designed to investigate multilevel influences on child health and strategies to address them. We review and summarize methodological challenges that could undermine prospective studies of the multilevel determinants of child health and ways to address them, borrowing approaches from the social and behavioral sciences. Nested data, variation in intervals of data collection and assessment, missing data, construct measurement across development and reporters, and unobserved population heterogeneity pose challenges in prospective multilevel cohort studies with children. We discuss innovations in missing data, innovations in person-oriented analyses, and innovations in multilevel modeling to address these challenges. Study design and analytic approaches that facilitate the integration across multiple levels, and that account for changes in people and the multiple, dynamic, nested systems in which they participate over time, are crucial to fully realize the promise of precision medicine for children and adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferring modes of colonization for pest species using heterozygosity comparisons and a shared-allele test.

PubMed Central

Sved, J A; Yu, H; Dominiak, B; Gilchrist, A S

2003-01-01

Long-range dispersal of a species may involve either a single long-distance movement from a core population or spreading via unobserved intermediate populations. Where the new populations originate as small propagules, genetic drift may be extreme and gene frequency or assignment methods may not prove useful in determining the relation between the core population and outbreak samples. We describe computationally simple resampling methods for use in this situation to distinguish between the different modes of dispersal. First, estimates of heterozygosity can be used to test for direct sampling from the core population and to estimate the effective size of intermediate populations. Second, a test of sharing of alleles, particularly rare alleles, can show whether outbreaks are related to each other rather than arriving as independent samples from the core population. The shared-allele statistic also serves as a genetic distance measure that is appropriate for small samples. These methods were applied to data on a fruit fly pest species, Bactrocera tryoni, which is quarantined from some horticultural areas in Australia. We concluded that the outbreaks in the quarantine zone came from a heterogeneous set of genetically differentiated populations, possibly ones that overwinter in the vicinity of the quarantine zone. PMID:12618417

Exploring the existence of a stayer population with mover-stayer counting process models: application to joint damage in psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Yiu, Sean; Farewell, Vernon T; Tom, Brian D M

2017-08-01

Many psoriatic arthritis patients do not progress to permanent joint damage in any of the 28 hand joints, even under prolonged follow-up. This has led several researchers to fit models that estimate the proportion of stayers (those who do not have the propensity to experience the event of interest) and to characterize the rate of developing damaged joints in the movers (those who have the propensity to experience the event of interest). However, when fitted to the same data, the paper demonstrates that the choice of model for the movers can lead to widely varying conclusions on a stayer population, thus implying that, if interest lies in a stayer population, a single analysis should not generally be adopted. The aim of the paper is to provide greater understanding regarding estimation of a stayer population by comparing the inferences, performance and features of multiple fitted models to real and simulated data sets. The models for the movers are based on Poisson processes with patient level random effects and/or dynamic covariates, which are used to induce within-patient correlation, and observation level random effects are used to account for time varying unobserved heterogeneity. The gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributions are considered for the random effects.

The effects of prospective mate quality on investments in healthy body weight among single women.

PubMed

Harris, Matthew C; Cronin, Christopher J

2017-02-01

This paper examines how a single female's investment in healthy body weight is affected by the quality of single males in her marriage market. A principle concern in estimation is the presence of market-level unobserved heterogeneity that may be correlated with changes in single male quality, measured as earning potential. To address this concern, we employ a differencing strategy that normalizes the exercise behaviors of single women to those of their married counterparts. Our main results suggest that when potential mate quality in a marriage market decreases, single black women invest less in healthy body weight. For example, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of low quality single black males leads to a 5-10% decrease in vigorous exercise taken by single black females. Results for single white women are qualitatively similar, but not consistent across specifications. These results highlight the relationship between male and female human capital acquisition that is driven by participation in the marriage market. Our results suggest that programs designed to improve the economic prospects of single males may yield positive externalities in the form of improved health behaviors, such as more exercise, particularly for single black females. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Single-cell mRNA sequencing identifies subclonal heterogeneity in anti-cancer drug responses of lung adenocarcinoma cells.

PubMed

Kim, Kyu-Tae; Lee, Hye Won; Lee, Hae-Ock; Kim, Sang Cheol; Seo, Yun Jee; Chung, Woosung; Eum, Hye Hyeon; Nam, Do-Hyun; Kim, Junhyong; Joo, Kyeung Min; Park, Woong-Yang

2015-06-19

Intra-tumoral genetic and functional heterogeneity correlates with cancer clinical prognoses. However, the mechanisms by which intra-tumoral heterogeneity impacts therapeutic outcome remain poorly understood. RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of single tumor cells can provide comprehensive information about gene expression and single-nucleotide variations in individual tumor cells, which may allow for the translation of heterogeneous tumor cell functional responses into customized anti-cancer treatments. We isolated 34 patient-derived xenograft (PDX) tumor cells from a lung adenocarcinoma patient tumor xenograft. Individual tumor cells were subjected to single cell RNA-seq for gene expression profiling and expressed mutation profiling. Fifty tumor-specific single-nucleotide variations, including KRAS(G12D), were observed to be heterogeneous in individual PDX cells. Semi-supervised clustering, based on KRAS(G12D) mutant expression and a risk score representing expression of 69 lung adenocarcinoma-prognostic genes, classified PDX cells into four groups. PDX cells that survived in vitro anti-cancer drug treatment displayed transcriptome signatures consistent with the group characterized by KRAS(G12D) and low risk score. Single-cell RNA-seq on viable PDX cells identified a candidate tumor cell subgroup associated with anti-cancer drug resistance. Thus, single-cell RNA-seq is a powerful approach for identifying unique tumor cell-specific gene expression profiles which could facilitate the development of optimized clinical anti-cancer strategies.

Toward experimental validation of a model for human sensorimotor learning and control in teleoperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Eatai; Howell, Darrin; Beckwith, Cydney; Burden, Samuel A.

2017-05-01

Humans, interacting with cyber-physical systems (CPS), formulate beliefs about the system's dynamics. It is natural to expect that human operators, tasked with teleoperation, use these beliefs to control the remote robot. For tracking tasks in the resulting human-cyber-physical system (HCPS), theory suggests that human operators can achieve exponential tracking (in stable systems) without state estimation provided they possess an accurate model of the system's dynamics. This internalized inverse model, however, renders a portion of the system state unobservable to the human operator—the zero dynamics. Prior work shows humans can track through observable linear dynamics, thus we focus on nonlinear dynamics rendered unobservable through tracking control. We propose experiments to assess the human operator's ability to learn and invert such models, and distinguish this behavior from that achieved by pure feedback control.

Assessing the Impact of Socioeconomic Variables on Small Area Variations in Suicide Outcomes in England

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2012-01-01

Ecological studies of suicide and self-harm have established the importance of area variables (e.g., deprivation, social fragmentation) in explaining variations in suicide risk. However, there are likely to be unobserved influences on risk, typically spatially clustered, which can be modeled as random effects. Regression impacts may be biased if no account is taken of spatially structured influences on risk. Furthermore a default assumption of linear effects of area variables may also misstate or understate their impact. This paper considers variations in suicide outcomes for small areas across England, and investigates the impact on them of area socio-economic variables, while also investigating potential nonlinearity in their impact and allowing for spatially clustered unobserved factors. The outcomes are self-harm hospitalisations and suicide mortality over 6,781 Middle Level Super Output Areas. PMID:23271304

Assessing the impact of socioeconomic variables on small area variations in suicide outcomes in England.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2012-12-27

Ecological studies of suicide and self-harm have established the importance of area variables (e.g., deprivation, social fragmentation) in explaining variations in suicide risk. However, there are likely to be unobserved influences on risk, typically spatially clustered, which can be modeled as random effects. Regression impacts may be biased if no account is taken of spatially structured influences on risk. Furthermore a default assumption of linear effects of area variables may also misstate or understate their impact. This paper considers variations in suicide outcomes for small areas across England, and investigates the impact on them of area socio-economic variables, while also investigating potential nonlinearity in their impact and allowing for spatially clustered unobserved factors. The outcomes are self-harm hospitalisations and suicide mortality over 6,781 Middle Level Super Output Areas.

Differential effects of an adult observer's presence on sex-typed play behavior: A comparison between gender-schematic and gender-aschematic preschool children.

PubMed

Wilansky-Traynor, Pamela; Lobel, Thalma E

2008-08-01

The present study examined the differential effect of an adult observer's presence on the sex-typed play behavior of gender schematic and aschematic preschoolers. A total of 116 Israeli preschoolers (M age = 64.9 months) participated in the study. Children were classified as either gender schematic or aschematic based upon responses to a computerized measure of different sex stereotype components. Children's play behavior with gender typical and atypical, attractive and unattractive, toys was videotaped. An observer was present for half the children's play and absent for the other half's play. Observation status affected the aschematic, but not the schematic, children's play with gender typical toys. For example, observed aschematic boys spent a greater percent of time playing with the unattractive masculine toys compared to unobserved aschematic boys. This difference was not apparent for schematic boys. Additionally, a difference found for schematic boys was not apparent in schematic girls, i.e., when unobserved, schematic boys tended to spend a greater percent of time playing with the unattractive masculine toy than aschematic boys. Further, some differences were found for unattractive, and not attractive, toys. For instance, observed aschematic boys spent a greater percent of time playing with the unattractive masculine toy than did the unobserved aschematic boys. This gap was not found for the attractive masculine toy. Results are discussed with reference to the accessibility and complexity of gender schemas.

Father absence due to migration and child illness in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Schmeer, Kammi

2009-10-01

Little research to date has assessed the importance of the presence of fathers in the household for protecting child health, particularly in developing country contexts. Although divorce and non-marital childbearing are low in many developing countries, migration is a potentially important source of father absence that has yet to be studied in relation to child health. This study utilizes prospective, longitudinal data from Mexico to assess whether father absence due to migration is associated with increased child illness in poor, rural communities. Rural Mexico provides a setting where child illness is related to more serious health problems, and where migration is an important source of father absence. Both state- and individual-level fixed effects regression analyses are used to estimate the relationship between father absence due to migration and child illness while controlling for unobserved contextual and individual characteristics. The state-level models illustrate that the odds of children being ill are 39% higher for any illness and 51% higher for diarrhea when fathers are absent compared with when fathers are present in the household. The individual-level fixed effects models support these findings, indicating that, in the context of rural Mexico, fathers may be important sources of support for ensuring the healthy development of young children.

Individual differences in learning predict the return of fear.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Hartley, Catherine A

2015-09-01

Using a laboratory analogue of learned fear (Pavlovian fear conditioning), we show that there is substantial heterogeneity across individuals in spontaneous recovery of fear following extinction training. We propose that this heterogeneity might stem from qualitative individual differences in the nature of extinction learning. Whereas some individuals tend to form a new memory during extinction, leaving their fear memory intact, others update the original threat association with new safety information, effectively unlearning the fear memory. We formalize this account in a computational model of fear learning and show that individuals who, according to the model, are more likely to form new extinction memories tend to show greater spontaneous recovery compared to individuals who appear to only update a single memory. This qualitative variation in fear and extinction learning may have important implications for understanding vulnerability and resilience to fear-related psychiatric disorders.

Convergence to consensus in heterogeneous groups and the emergence of informal leadership

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, Sergey; Auerbach, Jeremy; van Vugt, Mark

2016-01-01

When group cohesion is essential, groups must have efficient strategies in place for consensus decision-making. Recent theoretical work suggests that shared decision-making is often the most efficient way for dealing with both information uncertainty and individual variation in preferences. However, some animal and most human groups make collective decisions through particular individuals, leaders, that have a disproportionate influence on group decision-making. To address this discrepancy between theory and data, we study a simple, but general, model that explicitly focuses on the dynamics of consensus building in groups composed by individuals who are heterogeneous in preferences, certain personality traits (agreeability and persuasiveness), reputation, and social networks. We show that within-group heterogeneity can significantly delay democratic consensus building as well as give rise to the emergence of informal leaders, i.e. individuals with a disproportionately large impact on group decisions. Our results thus imply strong benefits of leadership particularly when groups experience time pressure and significant conflict of interest between members (due to various between-individual differences). Overall, our models shed light on why leadership and decision-making hierarchies are widespread, especially in human groups. PMID:27412692

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons.

PubMed

Bonnell, Tyler R; Clarke, Parry M; Henzi, S Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-07-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects).

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons

PubMed Central

Clarke, Parry M.; Henzi, S. Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-01-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects). PMID:28791140

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

PubMed

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Xia, Chengyi; Guo, Lu; Jiang, Xin; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-01-01

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes.

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes. PMID:27517715

Does intrinsic light heterogeneity in Ricinus communis L. monospecific thickets drive species' population dynamics?

PubMed

Goyal, Neha; Shah, Kanhaiya; Sharma, Gyan Prakash

2018-06-19

Ricinus communis L. colonizes heterogeneous urban landscapes as monospecific thickets. The ecological understanding on colonization success of R. communis population due to variable light availability is lacking. Therefore, to understand the effect of intrinsic light heterogeneity on species' population dynamics, R. communis populations exposed to variable light availability (low, intermediate, and high) were examined for performance strategies through estimation of key vegetative, eco-physiological, biochemical, and reproductive traits. Considerable variability existed in studied plant traits in response to available light. Individuals inhabiting high-light conditions exhibited high eco-physiological efficiency and reproductive performance that potentially confers population boom. Individuals exposed to low light showed poor performance in terms of eco-physiology and reproduction, which attribute to bust. However, individuals in intermediate light were observed to be indeterminate to light availability, potentially undergoing trait modulations with uncertainty of available light. Heterogeneous light availability potentially drives the boom and bust cycles in R. communis monospecific thickets. Such boom and bust cycles subsequently affect species' dominance, persistence, collapse, and/or resurgence as an aggressive colonizer in contrasting urban environments. The study fosters extensive monitoring of R. communis thickets to probe underlying mechanism(s) affecting expansions and/or collapses of colonizing populations.

Teaching about Heterogeneous Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Michael P.

2014-01-01

Individuals vary in their responses to incentives and opportunities. For example, additional education will affect one person differently than another. In recent years, econometricians have given increased attention to such heterogeneous responses and to the consequences of such responses for interpreting regression estimates, especially…

HETEROGENEOUS SOOT NANOSTRUCTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC AND COMBUSTION SOURCE AEROSOLS

EPA Science Inventory

Microscopic images of soot emissions from wildfire and a wide range of anthropogenic combustion sources show that the nanostructures of individual particles in these emissions are predominantly heterogeneous, decidedly influenced by the fuel composition and by the particular comb...

Gel phase formation in dilute triblock copolyelectrolyte complexes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Andreev, Marat; Levi, Adam E.

Assembly of oppositely charged triblock copolyelectrolytes into phase-separated gels at low polymer concentrations (<1% by mass) has been observed in scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. Here we show that in contrast to uncharged, amphiphilic block copolymers that form discrete micelles at low concentrations and enter a phase of strongly interacting micelles in a gradual manner with increasing concentration, the formation of a dilute phase of individual micelles is prevented in polyelectrolyte complexation-driven assembly of triblock copolyelectrolytes. Gel phases form and phase separate almost instantaneously on solvation of the copolymers. Furthermore, molecular models of self-assembly demonstrate the presence of oligo-chainmore » aggregates in early stages of copolyelectrolyte assembly, at experimentally unobservable polymer concentrations. Our discoveries contribute to the fundamental understanding of the structure and pathways of complexation-driven assemblies, and raise intriguing prospects for gel formation at extraordinarily low concentrations, with applications in tissue engineering, agriculture, water purification and theranostics.« less

Gel phase formation in dilute triblock copolyelectrolyte complexes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Andreev, Marat; Levi, Adam E.

Assembly of oppositely charged triblock copolyelectrolytes into phase-separated gels at low polymer concentrations (<1% by mass) has been observed in scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. Here we show that in contrast to uncharged, amphiphilic block copolymers that form discrete micelles at low concentrations and enter a phase of strongly interacting micelles in a gradual manner with increasing concentration, the formation of a dilute phase of individual micelles is prevented in polyelectrolyte complexation-driven assembly of triblock copolyelectrolytes. Gel phases form and phase separate almost instantaneously on solvation of the copolymers. Furthermore, molecular models of self-assembly demonstrate the presence of oligo-chainmore » aggregates in early stages of copolyelectrolyte assembly, at experimentally unobservable polymer concentrations. Finally, our discoveries contribute to the fundamental understanding of the structure and pathways of complexation-driven assemblies, and raise intriguing prospects for gel formation at extraordinarily low concentrations, with applications in tissue engineering, agriculture, water purification and theranostics.« less

Gel phase formation in dilute triblock copolyelectrolyte complexes

DOE PAGES

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Andreev, Marat; Levi, Adam E.; ...

2017-02-23

Assembly of oppositely charged triblock copolyelectrolytes into phase-separated gels at low polymer concentrations (<1% by mass) has been observed in scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. Here we show that in contrast to uncharged, amphiphilic block copolymers that form discrete micelles at low concentrations and enter a phase of strongly interacting micelles in a gradual manner with increasing concentration, the formation of a dilute phase of individual micelles is prevented in polyelectrolyte complexation-driven assembly of triblock copolyelectrolytes. Gel phases form and phase separate almost instantaneously on solvation of the copolymers. Furthermore, molecular models of self-assembly demonstrate the presence of oligo-chainmore » aggregates in early stages of copolyelectrolyte assembly, at experimentally unobservable polymer concentrations. Finally, our discoveries contribute to the fundamental understanding of the structure and pathways of complexation-driven assemblies, and raise intriguing prospects for gel formation at extraordinarily low concentrations, with applications in tissue engineering, agriculture, water purification and theranostics.« less

Gel Phase Formation in Dilute Triblock Copolyelectrolyte Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Andreev, Marat; Prabhu, Vivek; de Pablo, Juan; Tirrell, Matthew

Assembly of oppositely charged triblock copolyelectrolytes into phase-separated gels at extremely low polymer concentrations (<1 % by mass) has been observed in scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. In contrast to uncharged, amphiphilic block copolymers that form discrete micelles at low concentrations and enter a phase of strongly interacting micelles in a gradual manner with increasing polymer concentrations, the formation of a dilute phase of individual micelles is prevented in polyelectrolyte complexation-driven assemblies of triblock copolyelectrolytes. Gel phases form and phase separate almost instantaneously upon solvation of the copolymers. Furthermore, molecular models of self-assembly demonstrate the presence of oligo-chain aggregates in early stages of triblock copolyelectrolyte assembly, at experimentally unobservable polymer concentrations. Our discoveries not only contribute to our fundamental understanding of the structure and pathways of complexation driven assemblies, but also raise intriguing prospects for formation of gel structures at extraordinarily low concentrations, with applications in tissue engineering, agriculture, water purification and theranostics.

Gel phase formation in dilute triblock copolyelectrolyte complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Andreev, Marat; Levi, Adam E.; Goldfeld, David J.; Mao, Jun; Heller, William T.; Prabhu, Vivek M.; de Pablo, Juan J.; Tirrell, Matthew V.

2017-02-01

Assembly of oppositely charged triblock copolyelectrolytes into phase-separated gels at low polymer concentrations (<1% by mass) has been observed in scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. Here we show that in contrast to uncharged, amphiphilic block copolymers that form discrete micelles at low concentrations and enter a phase of strongly interacting micelles in a gradual manner with increasing concentration, the formation of a dilute phase of individual micelles is prevented in polyelectrolyte complexation-driven assembly of triblock copolyelectrolytes. Gel phases form and phase separate almost instantaneously on solvation of the copolymers. Furthermore, molecular models of self-assembly demonstrate the presence of oligo-chain aggregates in early stages of copolyelectrolyte assembly, at experimentally unobservable polymer concentrations. Our discoveries contribute to the fundamental understanding of the structure and pathways of complexation-driven assemblies, and raise intriguing prospects for gel formation at extraordinarily low concentrations, with applications in tissue engineering, agriculture, water purification and theranostics.

The influence of habitus in the relationship between cultural capital and academic achievement.

PubMed

Gaddis, S Michael

2013-01-01

Scholars routinely use cultural capital theory in an effort to explain class differences in academic success but often overlook the key concept of habitus. Rich, longstanding debates within the literature suggest the need for a closer examination of the individual effects of cultural capital and habitus. Drawing upon the writings of Pierre Bourdieu, I use a longitudinal dataset to examine the effects of multiple operationalizations of cultural capital on academic achievement and the mediating effects of habitus. Using first difference models to control for time-invariant unobserved characteristics, I find that typical operationalizations of cultural capital (i.e. high-arts participation and reading habits) have positive effects on GPA that are completely mediated through habitus. These results stress the importance of habitus in the relationship between cultural capital and academic achievement for disadvantaged youth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Organizing Heterogeneous Samples Using Community Detection of GIMME-Derived Resting State Functional Networks

PubMed Central

Gates, Kathleen M.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Iyer, Swathi P.; Nigg, Joel T.; Fair, Damien A.

2014-01-01

Clinical investigations of many neuropsychiatric disorders rely on the assumption that diagnostic categories and typical control samples each have within-group homogeneity. However, research using human neuroimaging has revealed that much heterogeneity exists across individuals in both clinical and control samples. This reality necessitates that researchers identify and organize the potentially varied patterns of brain physiology. We introduce an analytical approach for arriving at subgroups of individuals based entirely on their brain physiology. The method begins with Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME) to assess individual directed functional connectivity maps. GIMME is one of the only methods to date that can recover both the direction and presence of directed functional connectivity maps in heterogeneous data, making it an ideal place to start since it addresses the problem of heterogeneity. Individuals are then grouped based on similarities in their connectivity patterns using a modularity approach for community detection. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that using GIMME in combination with the modularity algorithm works exceptionally well - on average over 97% of simulated individuals are placed in the accurate subgroup with no prior information on functional architecture or group identity. Having demonstrated reliability, we examine resting-state data of fronto-parietal regions drawn from a sample (N = 80) of typically developing and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) -diagnosed children. Here, we find 5 subgroups. Two subgroups were predominantly comprised of ADHD, suggesting that more than one biological marker exists that can be used to identify children with ADHD based from their brain physiology. Empirical evidence presented here supports notions that heterogeneity exists in brain physiology within ADHD and control samples. This type of information gained from the approach presented here can assist in better characterizing patients in terms of outcomes, optimal treatment strategies, potential gene-environment interactions, and the use of biological phenomenon to assist with mental health. PMID:24642753

Joubert syndrome: A model for untangling recessive disorders with extreme genetic heterogeneity

PubMed Central

R, Bachmann-Gagescu; JC, Dempsey; IG, Phelps; BJ, O’Roak; DM, Knutzen; TC, Rue; GE, Ishak; CR, Isabella; N, Gorden; J, Adkins; EA, Boyle; N, de Lacy; D, O’Day; A, Alswaid; AR, Devi; L, Lingappa; C, Lourenço; L, Martorell; À, Garcia-Cazorla; H, Ozyürek; G, Haliloğlu; B, Tuysuz; M, Topçu; P, Chance; MA, Parisi; I, Glass; J, Shendure; D, Doherty

2016-01-01

Background Joubert syndrome (JS) is a recessive neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by hypotonia, ataxia, cognitive impairment, abnormal eye movements, respiratory control disturbances, and a distinctive mid-hindbrain malformation. JS demonstrates substantial phenotypic variability and genetic heterogeneity. This study provides a comprehensive view of the current genetic basis, phenotypic range and gene-phenotype associations in JS. Methods We sequenced 27 JS-associated genes in 440 affected individuals (375 families) from a cohort of 532 individuals (440 families) with JS, using molecular inversion probe-based targeted capture and next generation sequencing. Variant pathogenicity was defined using the Combined Annotation Dependent Depletion (CADD) algorithm with an optimized score cut-off. Results We identified presumed causal variants in 62% of pedigrees, including the first B9D2 mutations associated with JS. 253 different mutations in 23 genes highlight the extreme genetic heterogeneity of JS. Phenotypic analysis revealed that only 34% of individuals have a “pure JS” phenotype. Retinal disease is present in 30% of individuals, renal disease in 25%, coloboma in 17%, polydactyly in 15%, liver fibrosis in 14% and encephalocele in 8%. Loss of CEP290 function is associated with retinal dystrophy, while loss of TMEM67 function is associated with liver fibrosis and coloboma, but we observe no clear-cut distinction between JS-subtypes. Conclusion This work illustrates how combining advanced sequencing techniques with phenotypic data addresses extreme genetic heterogeneity to provide diagnostic and carrier testing, guide medical monitoring for progressive complications, facilitate interpretation of genome-wide sequencing results in individuals with a variety of phenotypes, and enable gene-specific treatments in the future. PMID:26092869

Heterogeneity and the effect of mental health parity mandates on the labor market.

PubMed

Andersen, Martin

2015-09-01

Health insurance benefit mandates are believed to have adverse effects on the labor market, but efforts to document such effects for mental health parity mandates have had limited success. I show that one reason for this failure is that the association between parity mandates and labor market outcomes vary with mental distress. Accounting for this heterogeneity, I find adverse labor market effects for non-distressed individuals, but favorable effects for moderately distressed individuals and individuals with a moderately distressed family member. On net, I conclude that the mandates are welfare increasing for moderately distressed workers and their families, but may be welfare decreasing for non-distressed individuals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditioning on What? Heterogeneous Contributions and Conditional Cooperation.

PubMed

Hartig, Björn; Irlenbusch, Bernd; Kölle, Felix

2015-04-01

We experimentally investigate how different information about others' individual contributions affects people's willingness to cooperate in a one-shot linear public goods game. We find that when information about individual contributions is provided, contributions are generally higher than when only average information is available. This effect is particularly strong when others' individual contributions are relatively homogeneous. When both types of information are provided, this effect is moderated. In the case of individual feedback we find the willingness to contribute to be higher the lower the variation in others' contributions, but with pronounced heterogeneity in individuals' reactions. While the majority of people are mainly guided by others' average contributions, more people follow the bad example of a low contributor than the good example of a high contributor. Overall, we provide evidence that information (and lack thereof) about others' individual contributions affects people's willingness to cooperate in systematic ways.

On the implications of the classical ergodic theorems: analysis of developmental processes has to focus on intra-individual variation.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2008-01-01

It is argued that general mathematical-statistical theorems imply that standard statistical analysis techniques of inter-individual variation are invalid to investigate developmental processes. Developmental processes have to be analyzed at the level of individual subjects, using time series data characterizing the patterns of intra-individual variation. It is shown that standard statistical techniques based on the analysis of inter-individual variation appear to be insensitive to the presence of arbitrary large degrees of inter-individual heterogeneity in the population. An important class of nonlinear epigenetic models of neural growth is described which can explain the occurrence of such heterogeneity in brain structures and behavior. Links with models of developmental instability are discussed. A simulation study based on a chaotic growth model illustrates the invalidity of standard analysis of inter-individual variation, whereas time series analysis of intra-individual variation is able to recover the true state of affairs. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatial heterogeneity of water quality in a highly degraded tropical freshwater ecosystem.

PubMed

Zambrano, Luis; Contreras, Victoria; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Zarco-Arista, Alba E

2009-02-01

Awareness of environmental heterogeneity in ecosystems is critical for management and conservation. We used the Xochimilco freshwater system to describe the relationship between heterogeneity and human activities. This tropical aquatic ecosystem south of Mexico City is comprised of a network of interconnected canals and lakes that are influenced by agricultural and urban activities. Environmental heterogeneity was characterized by spatially extensive surveys within four regions of Xochimilco during rainy and dry seasons over 2 years. These surveys revealed a heterogeneous system that was shallow (1.1 m, SD=0.4 ), warm (17 degrees C, SD=2.9), well oxygenated (5.0 mg l(-1), SD=3), turbid (45.7 NTU SD = 26.96), and extremely nutrient-rich (NO(3)-N=15.9 mg l(-1), SD=13.7; NH(4)-N=2.88 mg l(-1), SD=4.24; and PO(4)-P=8.3 mg l(-1), SD=2.4). Most of the variables were not significantly different between years, but did differ between seasons, suggesting a dynamic system within a span of a year but with a high resilience over longer periods of time. Maps were produced using interpolations to describe distributions of all variables. There was no correlation between individual variables and land use. Consequently, we searched for relationships using all variables together by generating a combined water quality index. Significant differences in the index were apparent among the four regions. Index values also differed within individual region and individual water bodies (e.g., within canals), indicating that Xochimilco has high local heterogeneity. Using this index on a map helped to relate water quality to human activities and provides a simple and clear tool for managers and policymakers.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Water Quality in a Highly Degraded Tropical Freshwater Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Luis; Contreras, Victoria; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Zarco-Arista, Alba E.

2009-02-01

Awareness of environmental heterogeneity in ecosystems is critical for management and conservation. We used the Xochimilco freshwater system to describe the relationship between heterogeneity and human activities. This tropical aquatic ecosystem south of Mexico City is comprised of a network of interconnected canals and lakes that are influenced by agricultural and urban activities. Environmental heterogeneity was characterized by spatially extensive surveys within four regions of Xochimilco during rainy and dry seasons over 2 years. These surveys revealed a heterogeneous system that was shallow (1.1 m, SD = 0.4 ), warm (17°C, SD = 2.9), well oxygenated (5.0 mg l-1, SD = 3), turbid (45.7 NTU SD = 26.96), and extremely nutrient-rich (NO3-N = 15.9 mg l-1, SD=13.7; NH4-N = 2.88 mg l-1, SD = 4.24; and PO4-P = 8.3 mg l-1, SD = 2.4). Most of the variables were not significantly different between years, but did differ between seasons, suggesting a dynamic system within a span of a year but with a high resilience over longer periods of time. Maps were produced using interpolations to describe distributions of all variables. There was no correlation between individual variables and land use. Consequently, we searched for relationships using all variables together by generating a combined water quality index. Significant differences in the index were apparent among the four regions. Index values also differed within individual region and individual water bodies (e.g., within canals), indicating that Xochimilco has high local heterogeneity. Using this index on a map helped to relate water quality to human activities and provides a simple and clear tool for managers and policymakers.

Distinct neuropsychological subgroups in typically developing youth inform heterogeneity in children with ADHD

PubMed Central

Fair, Damien A.; Bathula, Deepti; Nikolas, Molly A.; Nigg, Joel T.

2012-01-01

Research and clinical investigations in psychiatry largely rely on the de facto assumption that the diagnostic categories identified in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) represent homogeneous syndromes. However, the mechanistic heterogeneity that potentially underlies the existing classification scheme might limit discovery of etiology for most developmental psychiatric disorders. Another, perhaps less palpable, reality may also be interfering with progress—heterogeneity in typically developing populations. In this report we attempt to clarify neuropsychological heterogeneity in a large dataset of typically developing youth and youth with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), using graph theory and community detection. We sought to determine whether data-driven neuropsychological subtypes could be discerned in children with and without the disorder. Because individual classification is the sine qua non for eventual clinical translation, we also apply support vector machine-based multivariate pattern analysis to identify how well ADHD status in individual children can be identified as defined by the community detection delineated subtypes. The analysis yielded several unique, but similar subtypes across both populations. Just as importantly, comparing typically developing children with ADHD children within each of these distinct subgroups increased diagnostic accuracy. Two important principles were identified that have the potential to advance our understanding of typical development and developmental neuropsychiatric disorders. The first tenet suggests that typically developing children can be classified into distinct neuropsychological subgroups with high precision. The second tenet proposes that some of the heterogeneity in individuals with ADHD might be “nested” in this normal variation. PMID:22474392

Children's understanding of the costs and rewards underlying rational action.

PubMed

Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Gweon, Hyowon; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Schulz, Laura E

2015-07-01

Humans explain and predict other agents' behavior using mental state concepts, such as beliefs and desires. Computational and developmental evidence suggest that such inferences are enabled by a principle of rational action: the expectation that agents act efficiently, within situational constraints, to achieve their goals. Here we propose that the expectation of rational action is instantiated by a naïve utility calculus sensitive to both agent-constant and agent-specific aspects of costs and rewards associated with actions. In four experiments, we show that, given an agent's choices, children (range: 5-6 year olds; N=96) can infer unobservable aspects of costs (differences in agents' competence) from information about subjective differences in rewards (differences in agents' preferences) and vice versa. Moreover, children can design informative experiments on both objects and agents to infer unobservable constraints on agents' actions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujimoto, Kazufumi, E-mail: m_fuji@kvj.biglobe.ne.jp; Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagai@sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp; Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., E-mail: runggal@math.unipd.it

2013-02-15

We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand itmore » considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).« less

Influence of super-horizon modes on correlation functions during inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deutsch, Anne-Sylvie

2018-05-01

Coupling between sub- and super-Hubble modes can affect the locally observed statistics of our universe. In the context of Quasi-Single Field Inflation, we can compute correlation functions and derive the influence of those unobservable modes on observed correlation functions as well as on the inferred cosmological parameters. We study how different classes of diagrams affect the bispectrum in the squeezed limit; in particular, while contact-like diagrams leave the scaling between the long and short modes unchanged, exchange-like diagrams do modify the shape of the bispectrum. We show that the mass of the hidden sector field can hence be biased by an unavoidable cosmic variance that can reach a 1-σ uncertainty of Script O(10%) for a weakly non-Gaussian universe. Finally, we go beyond the bispectrum and show how couplings between unobservable and observable modes can affect generic correlation functions with arbitrary order non-derivative self-interactions.

Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

2017-09-01

We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

Maximum profile likelihood estimation of differential equation parameters through model based smoothing state estimates.

PubMed

Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O

2013-12-01

Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Missing matter in the vicinity of the sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahcall, John N.

1986-01-01

The Poisson and Vlasov equations are solved numerically for realistic Galaxy models which include multiple disk components, a Population II spheroid, and an unseen massive halo. The total amount of matter in the vicinity of the sun is determined by comparing the observed distributions of tracer stars, samples of F dwarfs, and K giants with the predictions of the Galaxy models. Results are obtained for a number of different assumed distributions of the unseen disk mass. For all the observed samples, typical models imply that about half of the mass in the solar vicinity must be in the form of unobserved matter. The volume density of unobserved material near the sun is about 0.1 solar mass/cu pc; the corresponding column density is about 30 solar mass/sq pc. This so far unseen material must be in a disk with an exponential scale height of less than 0.7 kpc.

Stratification based on reproductive state reveals contrasting patterns of age-related variation in demographic parameters in the kittiwake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

Heterogeneity in individual quality can be a major obstacle when interpreting age-specific variation in life-history traits. Heterogeneity is likely to lead to within-generation selection, and patterns observed at the population level may result from the combination of hidden patterns specific to subpopulations. Population-level patterns are not relevant to hypotheses concerning the evolution of age-specific reproductive strategies if they differ from patterns at the individual level. We addressed the influence of age and a variable used as a surrogate of quality (yearly reproductive state) on survival and breeding probability in the kittiwake. We found evidence of an effect of age and quality on both demographic parameters. Patterns observed in breeders are consistent with the selection hypothesis, which predicts age-related increases in survival and traits positively correlated with survival. Our results also reveal unexpected age effects specific to subgroups: the influence of age on survival and future breeding probability is not the same in nonbreeders and breeders. These patterns are observed in higher-quality breeding habitats, where the influence of extrinsic factors on breeding state is the weakest. Moreover, there is slight evidence of an influence of sex on breeding probability (not on survival), but the same overall pattern is observed in both sexes. Our results support the hypothesis that age-related variation in demographic parameters observed at the population level is partly shaped by heterogeneity among individuals. They also suggest processes specific to subpopulations. Recent theoreticaI developments lay emphasis on integration of sources of heterogeneity in optimization models to account for apparently 'sub-optimal' empirical patterns. Incorporation of sources of heterogeneity is also the key to investigation of age-related reproductive strategies in heterogeneous populations. Thwarting 'heterogeneity's ruses' has become a major challenge: for detecting and understanding natural processes, and a constructive confrontation between empirical and theoretical studies.

On evolutionary spatial heterogeneous games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fort, H.

2008-03-01

How cooperation between self-interested individuals evolve is a crucial problem, both in biology and in social sciences, that is far from being well understood. Evolutionary game theory is a useful approach to this issue. The simplest model to take into account the spatial dimension in evolutionary games is in terms of cellular automata with just a one-parameter payoff matrix. Here, the effects of spatial heterogeneities of the environment and/or asymmetries in the interactions among the individuals are analysed through different extensions of this model. Instead of using the same universal payoff matrix, bimatrix games in which each cell at site ( i, j) has its own different ‘temptation to defect’ parameter T(i,j) are considered. First, the case in which these individual payoffs are constant in time is studied. Second, an evolving evolutionary spatial game such that T=T(i,j;t), i.e. besides depending on the position evolves (by natural selection), is used to explore the combination of spatial heterogeneity and natural selection of payoff matrices.

Child outpatient mental health service use: why doesn't insurance matter?

PubMed

Glied, Sherry; Bowen Garrett, A.; Hoven, Christina; Rubio-Stipec, Maritza; Regier, Darrel; Moore, Robert E.; Goodman, Sherryl; Wu, Ping; Bird, Hector

1998-12-01

BACKGROUND: Several recent studies of child outpatient mental health service use in the US have shown that having private insurance has no effect on the propensity to use services. Some studies also find that public coverage has no beneficial effect relative to no insurance. AIMS: This study explores several potential explanations, including inadequate measurement of mental health status, bandwagon effects, unobservable heterogeneity and public sector substitution for private services, for the lack of an effect of private insurance on service use. METHODS: We use secondary analysis of data from the three mainland US sites of NIMH's 1992 field trial of the Cooperative Agreement for Methodological Research for Multi-Site Surveys of Mental Disorders in Child and Adolescent Populations (MECA) Study. We examine whether or not a subject used any mental health service, school-based mental health services or outpatient mental health services, and the number of outpatient visits among users. We also examine use of general medical services as a check on our results. We conduct regression analysis; instrumental variables analysis, using instruments based on employment and parental history of mental health problems to identify insurance choice, and bivariate probit analysis to examine multiservice use. RESULTS: We find evidence that children with private health insurance have fewer observable (measured) mental health problems. They also appear to have a lower unobservable (latent) propensity to use mental health services than do children without coverage and those with Medicaid coverage. Unobserved differences in mental health status that relate to insurance choice are found to contribute to the absence of a positive effect for private insurance relative to no coverage in service use regressions. We find no evidence to suggest that differences in attitudes or differences in service availability in children's census tracts of residence explain the non-effect of insurance. Finally, we find that the lack of a difference is not a consequence of substitution of school-based for office-based services. School-based and office-based specialty mental health services are complements rather than substitutes. School-based services are used by the same children who use office-based services, even after controlling for mental health status. DISCUSSION: Our results are consistent with at least two explanations. First, limits on coverage under private insurance may discourage families who anticipate a need for child mental health services from purchasing such insurance. Second, publicly funded services may be readily available substitutes for private services, so that lack of insurance is not a barrier to adequate care. Despite the richness of data in the MECA dataset, cross-sectional data based on epidemiological surveys do not appear to be sufficient to fully understand the surprising result that insurance does not enable access to care. IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND RESEARCH: Limits on coverage under private mental health insurance combined with a relatively extensive system of public mental health coverage have apparently generated a situation where there is no observed advantage to the marginal family of obtaining private mental health insurance coverage. Further research using longitudinal data is needed to better understand the nature of selection in the child mental health insurance market. Further research using better measures of the nature of treatment provided in different settings is needed to better understand how the private and public mental health systems operate.

Identifying ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth

PubMed Central

Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Caraglio, Yves; Lavergne, Christian; Guédon, Yann

2009-01-01

Background and Aims This study aimed to identify and characterize the ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth. In the proposed approach, the tree growth data typically correspond to the retrospective measurement of annual shoot characteristics (e.g. length) along the trunk. Methods Dedicated statistical models (semi-Markov switching linear mixed models) were applied to data sets of Corsican pine and sessile oak. In the semi-Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from these data sets, the underlying semi-Markov chain represents both the succession of growth phases and their lengths, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and the inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase. Key Results On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that growth phases are not only defined by average growth level but also by growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity and that the individual tree status within the population may change between phases. Species plasticity affected the response to climatic factors while tree origin, sampling strategy and silvicultural interventions impacted inter-individual heterogeneity. Conclusions The transposition of the proposed integrative statistical modelling approach to cambial growth in relation to climatic factors and the study of the relationship between apical growth and cambial growth constitute the next steps in this research. PMID:19684021

Strategies for mapping heterogeneous recessive traits by allele-sharing methods.

PubMed Central

Feingold, E; Siegmund, D O

1997-01-01

We investigate strategies for detecting linkage of recessive and partially recessive traits, using sibling pairs and inbred individuals. We assume that a genomewide search is being conducted and that locus heterogeneity of the trait is likely. For sibling pairs, we evaluate the efficiency of different statistics under the assumption that one does not know the true degree of recessiveness of the trait. We recommend a sibling-pair statistic that is a linear compromise between two previously suggested statistics. We also compare the power of sibling pairs to that of more distant relatives, such as cousins. For inbred individuals, we evaluate the power of offspring of different types of matings and compare them to sibling pairs. Over a broad range of trait etiologies, sibling pairs are more powerful than inbred individuals, but for traits caused by very rare alleles, particularly in the case of heterogeneity, inbred individuals can be much more powerful. The models we develop can also be used to examine specific situations other than those we look at. We present this analysis in the idealized context of a dense set of highly polymorphic markers. In general, incorporation of real-world complexities makes inbred individuals, particularly offspring of distant relatives, look slightly less useful than our results imply. PMID:9106544

Origin and analysis of microbial population heterogeneity in bioprocesses.

PubMed

Müller, Susann; Harms, Hauke; Bley, Thomas

2010-02-01

Heterogeneity of industrial production cultures is accepted to a certain degree; however, the underlying mechanisms are seldom perceived or included in the development of new bioprocess control strategies. Population heterogeneity and its basics, perceptible in the diverse proficiency of cells, begins with asymmetric birth and is found to recess during the life cycle. Since inefficient subpopulations have significant impact on the productivity of industrial cultures, cellular heterogeneity needs to be detected and quantified by using high speed detection tools like flow cytometry. Possible origins of population heterogeneity, sophisticated fluorescent techniques for detection of individual cell states, and cutting-edge Omics-technologies for extended information beyond the resolution of fluorescent labelling are highlighted.

Behavioural responses of sardines Sardina pilchardus to simulated purse-seine capture and slipping.

PubMed

Marçalo, A; Araújo, J; Pousão-Ferreira, P; Pierce, G J; Stratoudakis, Y; Erzini, K

2013-09-01

The behavioural effects of confinement of sardine Sardina pilchardus in a purse seine were evaluated through three laboratory experiments simulating the final stages of purse seining; the process of slipping (deliberately allowing fishes to escape) and subsequent exposure to potential predators. Effects of holding time (the time S. pilchardus were held or entangled in the simulation apparatus) and S. pilchardus density were investigated. Experiment 1 compared the effect of a mild fishing stressor (20 min in the net and low S. pilchardus density) with a control (fishing not simulated) while the second and third experiments compared the mild stressor with a severe stressor (40 min in the net and high S. pilchardus density). In all cases, sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax were used as potential predators. Results indicated a significant effect of crowding time and density on the survival and behaviour of slipped S. pilchardus. After simulated fishing, S. pilchardus showed significant behavioural changes including lower swimming speed, closer approaches to predators and higher nearest-neighbour distances (wider school area) than controls, regardless of stressor severity. These results suggest that, in addition to the delayed and unobserved mortality caused by factors related to fishing operations, slipped pelagic fishes can suffer behavioural impairments that may increase vulnerability to predation. Possible sub-lethal effects of behavioural impairment on fitness are discussed, with suggestions on how stock assessment might be modified to account for both unobserved mortality and sub-lethal effects, and possible approaches to provide better estimates of unobserved mortality in the field are provided. © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Influences of granular constraints and surface effects on the heterogeneity of elastic, superelastic, and plastic responses of polycrystalline shape memory alloys

DOE PAGES

Paranjape, Harshad M.; Paul, Partha P.; Sharma, Hemant; ...

2017-02-16

Deformation heterogeneities at the microstructural length-scale developed in polycrystalline shape memory alloys (SMAs) during superelastic loading are studied using both experiments and simulations. In situ X-ray diffraction, specifically the far-field high energy diffraction microscopy (ff-HEDM) technique, was used to non-destructively measure the grain-averaged statistics of position, crystal orientation, elastic strain tensor, and volume for hundreds of austenite grains in a superelastically loaded nickel-titanium (NiTi) SMA. These experimental data were also used to create a synthetic microstructure within a finite element model. The development of intragranular stresses were then simulated during tensile loading of the model using anisotropic elasticity. Driving forcesmore » for phase transformation and slip were calculated from these stresses. The grain-average responses of individual austenite crystals examined before and after multiple stress-induced transformation events showed that grains in the specimen interior carry more axial stress than the surface grains as the superelastic response "shakes down". Examination of the heterogeneity within individual grains showed that regions near grain boundaries exhibit larger stress variation compared to the grain interiors. As a result, this intragranular heterogeneity is more strongly driven by the constraints of neighboring grains than the initial stress state and orientation of the individual grains.« less

Influences of granular constraints and surface effects on the heterogeneity of elastic, superelastic, and plastic responses of polycrystalline shape memory alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paranjape, Harshad M.; Paul, Partha P.; Sharma, Hemant

Deformation heterogeneities at the microstructural length-scale developed in polycrystalline shape memory alloys (SMAs) during superelastic loading are studied using both experiments and simulations. In situ X-ray diffraction, specifically the far-field high energy diffraction microscopy (ff-HEDM) technique, was used to non-destructively measure the grain-averaged statistics of position, crystal orientation, elastic strain tensor, and volume for hundreds of austenite grains in a superelastically loaded nickel-titanium (NiTi) SMA. These experimental data were also used to create a synthetic microstructure within a finite element model. The development of intragranular stresses were then simulated during tensile loading of the model using anisotropic elasticity. Driving forcesmore » for phase transformation and slip were calculated from these stresses. The grain-average responses of individual austenite crystals examined before and after multiple stress-induced transformation events showed that grains in the specimen interior carry more axial stress than the surface grains as the superelastic response "shakes down". Examination of the heterogeneity within individual grains showed that regions near grain boundaries exhibit larger stress variation compared to the grain interiors. As a result, this intragranular heterogeneity is more strongly driven by the constraints of neighboring grains than the initial stress state and orientation of the individual grains.« less

A single-cell assay for telomere DNA content shows increasing telomere length heterogeneity, as well as increasing mean telomere length in human spermatozoa with advancing age.

PubMed

Antunes, Danielle M F; Kalmbach, Keri H; Wang, Fang; Dracxler, Roberta C; Seth-Smith, Michelle L; Kramer, Yael; Buldo-Licciardi, Julia; Kohlrausch, Fabiana B; Keefe, David L

2015-11-01

The effect of age on telomere length heterogeneity in men has not been studied previously. Our aims were to determine the relationship between variation in sperm telomere length (STL), men's age, and semen parameters in spermatozoa from men undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. To perform this prospective cross-sectional pilot study, telomere length was estimated in 200 individual spermatozoa from men undergoing IVF treatment at the NYU Fertility Center. A novel single-cell telomere content assay (SCT-pqPCR) measured telomere length in individual spermatozoa. Telomere length among individual spermatozoa within an ejaculate varies markedly and increases with age. Older men not only have longer STL but also have more variable STL compared to younger men. STL from samples with normal semen parameters was significantly longer than that from samples with abnormal parameters, but STL did not differ between spermatozoa with normal versus abnormal morphology. The marked increase in STL heterogeneity as men age is consistent with a role for ALT during spermatogenesis. No data have yet reported the effect of age on STL heterogeneity. Based on these results, future studies should expand this modest sample size to search for molecular evidence of ALT in human testes during spermatogenesis.

ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL IMAGING

EPA Science Inventory

The utility of remote sensing using spectral imaging is just being realized through the investigation to a wide variety of environmental issues. Improved spectral and spatial resolution is very important to the detection of effects once regarded as unobservable. A current researc...

Thermal Profiling of Residential Energy Use

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albert, A; Rajagopal, R

This work describes a methodology for informing targeted demand-response (DR) and marketing programs that focus on the temperature-sensitive part of residential electricity demand. Our methodology uses data that is becoming readily available at utility companies-hourly energy consumption readings collected from "smart" electricity meters, as well as hourly temperature readings. To decompose individual consumption into a thermal-sensitive part and a base load (non-thermally-sensitive), we propose a model of temperature response that is based on thermal regimes, i.e., unobserved decisions of consumers to use their heating or cooling appliances. We use this model to extract useful benchmarks that compose thermal profiles ofmore » individual users, i.e., terse characterizations of the statistics of these users' temperature-sensitive consumption. We present example profiles generated using our model on real consumers, and show its performance on a large sample of residential users. This knowledge may, in turn, inform the DR program by allowing scarce operational and marketing budgets to be spent on the right users-those whose influencing will yield highest energy reductions-at the right time. We show that such segmentation and targeting of users may offer savings exceeding 100% of a random strategy.« less

The interplay between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles

PubMed Central

Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A.; Mafe, Salvador

2014-01-01

The interplay between cooperativity and diversity is crucial for biological ensembles because single molecule experiments show a significant degree of heterogeneity and also for artificial nanostructures because of the high individual variability characteristic of nanoscale units. We study the cross-effects between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles composed of individually different units that show a cooperative behaviour. The units are modelled as statistical distributions of parameters (the individual threshold potentials here) characterized by central and width distribution values. The simulations show that the interplay between cooperativity and diversity results in ensemble-averaged responses of interest for the understanding of electrical transduction in cell membranes, the experimental characterization of heterogeneous groups of biomolecules and the development of biologically inspired engineering designs with individually different building blocks. PMID:25142516

Using Eddy Covariance to Quantify Methane Emissions from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Area

EPA Science Inventory

Measuring emissions of CH4, CO2, H2O, and other greenhouse gases from heterogeneous land area sources is challenging. Dynamic changes within the source area as well as changing environmental conditions make individual point measurements less informative than desired, especially w...

Using Eddy Covariance to Quantify Methane Emission from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Area

EPA Science Inventory

Measuring emissions of CH4, CO2, H2O, and other greenhouse gases from heterogeneous land area sources is challenging. Dynamic changes within the source area as well as changing environmental conditions make individual point measurements less informative than desired, especially w...

The Hawk-Dove game in phenotypically homogeneous and heterogeneous populations of finite dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laruelle, Annick; da Silva Rocha, André Barreira; Escobedo, Ramón

2018-02-01

The Hawk-Dove game played between individuals in populations of finite dimension is analyzed by means of a stochastic model. We take into account both cases when all individuals in the population are either phenotypically homogeneous or heterogeneous. A strategy in the model is a gene representing the probability of playing the Hawk strategy. Individual interactions at the microscopic level are described by a genetic algorithm where evolution results from the interplay among selection, mutation, drift and cross-over of genes. We show that the behavioral patterns observed at the macroscopic level can be reproduced as the emergent result of individual interactions governed by the rules of the Hawk-Dove game at the microscopic level. We study how the results of the genetic algorithm compare with those obtained in evolutionary game theory, finding that, although genes continuously change both their presence and frequency in the population over time, the population average behavior always achieves stationarity and, when this happens, the final average strategy played in the population oscillates around the evolutionarily stable strategy in the homogeneous population case or the neutrally stable set in the heterogeneous population case.

The co-evolution of networks and prisoner's dilemma game by considering sensitivity and visibility.

PubMed

Li, Dandan; Ma, Jing; Han, Dun; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-03-24

Strategies adopted by individuals in a social network significantly impact the network, and they strongly affect relationships between individuals in the network. Links between individuals also heavily influence their levels of cooperation. Taking into account the evolution of each individual's connection, we explore how sensitivity and visibility affect the prisoner's dilemma game. The so-called 'sensitivity' and 'visibility' respectively present one's self-protection consciousness and the ability of gaining information. We find that at moderate levels of player sensitivity cooperative behavior increases, but that at high levels it is inhibited. We also find that the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals at the end of the game is higher when sensitivity and visibility are increased, but that the successful-defection-payoff has less impact on the weight of individuals and on the relationship between the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals and the density of cooperators. This framework can be used to clarify the interaction mechanism between the micro-level of individual behavior and the macro-level of individual co-evolutionary processes.

Analyses of direct and indirect impacts of a positive list system on pharmaceutical R&D investments.

PubMed

Han, Euna; Kim, Tae Hyun; Jeung, Myung Jin; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2013-07-01

The South Korean government recently enacted a Positive List System (PLS) as a major change of the national formulary listing system and reimbursed prices for pharmaceutical products. Regardless of the primary goal of the PLS, its implementation might have spillover effects by influencing the pharmaceutical industry's research and development (R&D), potentially leading to a variety of responses by firms in relation to their R&D activities. We investigated the spillover effect of the PLS on R&D investments of the pharmaceutical industry in Korea through both direct and indirect channels, examining the influence of the PLS on sales profit and cash flow. Data from 9 years (5 before and 4 after PLS implementation) were drawn from the financial statements of firms whose stocks were exchanged in 2 official stock markets in Korea (526 firms) and additional pharmaceutical firms whose financial performance was officially audited by external reviewers (263 firms). Longitudinal analyses were conducted, using the panel nature of the data to control for permanent unobserved firm heterogeneity. Our results showed that the PLS was directly associated with R&D investments. In contrast, its indirect impacts stemming from the influence on sales profit and cash flow were minimal and statistically nonsignificant. The gross impact of the PLS on R&D investments increased moving further from the enactment year; R&D investments were reduced by 18.3% to 25.8% in 2009-2010 (compared with before PLS implementation) in the firm fixed-effects model. We also found that such negative direct and gross impacts of the PLS on R&D investments were significant only in firms without newly developed chemical entities. Considering the gross negative impact of the PLS on R&D investments of pharmaceutical firms and the heterogeneous response of these firms by the R&D activities, governmental efforts of cost-containment may need to consider the spillover impact of the PLS on pharmaceutical innovation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Brownian motion dispersal rate, longevity and population density from spatially explicit mark-recapture data on tropical butterflies.

PubMed

Tufto, Jarle; Lande, Russell; Ringsby, Thor-Harald; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Walla, Thomas R; DeVries, Philip J

2012-07-01

1. We develop a Bayesian method for analysing mark-recapture data in continuous habitat using a model in which individuals movement paths are Brownian motions, life spans are exponentially distributed and capture events occur at given instants in time if individuals are within a certain attractive distance of the traps. 2. The joint posterior distribution of the dispersal rate, longevity, trap attraction distances and a number of latent variables representing the unobserved movement paths and time of death of all individuals is computed using Gibbs sampling. 3. An estimate of absolute local population density is obtained simply by dividing the Poisson counts of individuals captured at given points in time by the estimated total attraction area of all traps. Our approach for estimating population density in continuous habitat avoids the need to define an arbitrary effective trapping area that characterized previous mark-recapture methods in continuous habitat. 4. We applied our method to estimate spatial demography parameters in nine species of neotropical butterflies. Path analysis of interspecific variation in demographic parameters and mean wing length revealed a simple network of strong causation. Larger wing length increases dispersal rate, which in turn increases trap attraction distance. However, higher dispersal rate also decreases longevity, thus explaining the surprising observation of a negative correlation between wing length and longevity. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Rethinking the evolution of specialization: A model for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity.

PubMed

Rubin, Ilan N; Doebeli, Michael

2017-12-21

Phenotypic heterogeneity refers to genetically identical individuals that express different phenotypes, even when in the same environment. Traditionally, "bet-hedging" in fluctuating environments is offered as the explanation for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity. However, there are an increasing number of examples of microbial populations that display phenotypic heterogeneity in stable environments. Here we present an evolutionary model of phenotypic heterogeneity of microbial metabolism and a resultant theory for the evolution of phenotypic versus genetic specialization. We use two-dimensional adaptive dynamics to track the evolution of the population phenotype distribution of the expression of two metabolic processes with a concave trade-off. Rather than assume a Gaussian phenotype distribution, we use a Beta distribution that is capable of describing genotypes that manifest as individuals with two distinct phenotypes. Doing so, we find that environmental variation is not a necessary condition for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity, which can evolve as a form of specialization in a stable environment. There are two competing pressures driving the evolution of specialization: directional selection toward the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity and disruptive selection toward genetically determined specialists. Because of the lack of a singular point in the two-dimensional adaptive dynamics and the fact that directional selection is a first order process, while disruptive selection is of second order, the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity dominates and often precludes speciation. We find that branching, and therefore genetic specialization, occurs mainly under two conditions: the presence of a cost to maintaining a high phenotypic variance or when the effect of mutations is large. A cost to high phenotypic variance dampens the strength of selection toward phenotypic heterogeneity and, when sufficiently large, introduces a singular point into the evolutionary dynamics, effectively guaranteeing eventual branching. Large mutations allow the second order disruptive selection to dominate the first order selection toward phenotypic heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cloning of transgenic tobacco BY-2 cells; an efficient method to analyse and reduce high natural heterogeneity of transgene expression.

PubMed

Nocarova, Eva; Fischer, Lukas

2009-04-22

Phenotypic characterization of transgenic cell lines, frequently used in plant biology studies, is complicated because transgene expression in individual cells is often heterogeneous and unstable. To identify the sources and to reduce this heterogeneity, we transformed tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) BY-2 cells with a gene encoding green fluorescent protein (GFP) using Agrobacterium tumefaciens, and then introduced a simple cloning procedure to generate cell lines derived from the individual transformed cells. Expression of the transgene was monitored by analysing GFP fluorescence in the cloned lines and also in lines obtained directly after transformation. The majority ( approximately 90%) of suspension culture lines derived from calli that were obtained directly from transformation consisted of cells with various levels of GFP fluorescence. In contrast, nearly 50% of lines generated by cloning cells from the primary heterogeneous suspensions consisted of cells with homogenous GFP fluorescence. The rest of the lines exhibited "permanent heterogeneity" that could not be resolved by cloning. The extent of fluorescence heterogeneity often varied, even among genetically identical clones derived from the primary transformed lines. In contrast, the offspring of subsequent cloning of the cloned lines was uniform, showing GFP fluorescence intensity and heterogeneity that corresponded to the original clone. The results demonstrate that, besides genetic heterogeneity detected in some lines, the primary lines often contained a mixture of epigenetically different cells that could be separated by cloning. This indicates that a single integration event frequently results in various heritable expression patterns, which are probably accidental and become stabilized in the offspring of the primary transformed cells early after the integration event. Because heterogeneity in transgene expression has proven to be a serious problem, it is highly advisable to use transgenes tagged with a visual marker for BY-2 transformation. The cloning procedure can be used not only for efficient reduction of expression heterogeneity of such transgenes, but also as a useful tool for studies of transgene expression and other purposes.

The Impact of Heterogeneity on Threshold-Limited Social Contagion, and on Crowd Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karampourniotis, Panagiotis Dimitrios

Recent global events and their poor predictability are often attributed to the complexity of the world event dynamics. A key factor generating the turbulence is human diversity. Here, we study the impact of heterogeneity of individuals on opinion formation and emergence of global biases. In the case of opinion formation, we focus on the heterogeneity of individuals' susceptibility to new ideas. In the case of global biases, we focus on the aggregated heterogeneity of individuals in a country. First, to capture the complex nature of social influencing we use a simple but classic model of contagion spreading in complex social systems, namely the threshold model. We investigate numerically and analytically the transition in the behavior of threshold-limited cascades in the presence of multiple initiators as the distribution of thresholds is varied between the two extreme cases of identical thresholds and a uniform distribution. We show that individuals' heterogeneity of susceptibility governs the dynamics, resulting in different sizes of initiators needed for consensus. Furthermore, given the impact of heterogeneity on the cascade dynamics, we investigate selection strategies for accelerating consensus. To this end, we introduce two new selection strategies for Influence Maximization. One of them focuses on finding the balance between targeting nodes which have high resistance to adoptions versus nodes positioned in central spots in networks. The second strategy focuses on the combination of nodes for reaching consensus, by targeting nodes which increase the group's influence. Our strategies outperform other existing strategies regardless of the susceptibility diversity and network degree assortativity. Finally, we study the aggregated biases of humans in a global setting. The emergence of technology and globalization gives raise to the debate on whether the world moves towards becoming flat, a world where preferential attachment does not govern economic growth. By studying the data from a global lending platform we discover that geographical proximity and cultural affinity are highly negatively correlated with levels of flatness of the world. Furthermore, we investigate the robustness of the flatness of the world against sudden catastrophic national events such as political disruptions, by removing countries (nodes) or connections (edges) between them.

Appreciating Formal Similarities in the Kinetics of Homogeneous, Heterogeneous, and Enzyme Catalysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashby, Michael T.

2007-01-01

Because interest in catalysts is widespread, the kinetics of catalytic reactions have been investigated by widely diverse groups of individuals, including chemists, engineers, and biologists. This has lead to redundancy in theories, particularly with regard to the topics of homogeneous, heterogeneous, and enzyme catalysis. From a pedagogical…

Heterogeneity Moderates Treatment Response among Patients with Binge Eating Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sysko, Robyn; Hildebrandt, Tom; Wilson, G. Terence; Wilfley, Denise E.; Agras, W. Stewart

2010-01-01

Objective: The purpose of the study was to explore heterogeneity and differential treatment outcome among a sample of patients with binge eating disorder (BED). Method: A latent class analysis was conducted with 205 treatment-seeking, overweight or obese individuals with BED randomized to interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT), behavioral weight loss…

The Heterogeneous Effects of Income Changes on Happiness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becchetti, Leonardo; Corrado, Luisa; Rossetti, Fiammetta

2011-01-01

We investigate the relationship between money and happiness across the waves of the British Household Panel Study by using a latent class approach which accounts for slope heterogeneity. Our findings reveal the presence of a vast majority of "Easterlin-type" individuals with positive but very weak relationship between changes in income…

Simulating dispersal of reintroduced species within heterogeneous landscapes

Treesearch

Robert H. Gardner; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

This paper describes the development and application of a spatially explicit, individual based model of animal dispersal (J-walk) to determine the relative effects of landscape heterogeneity, prey availability, predation risk, and the energy requirements and behavior of dispersing organisms on dispersal success. Significant unknowns exist for the simulation of complex...

Heterogeneity in Learning Style in Asperger Syndrome and High-Functioning Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsatsanis, Katharine D.

2004-01-01

Although children and adolescents with high-functioning autism and Asperger syndrome present with some similar clinical features and challenges, heterogeneity of learning style coupled with the predominance of specific "packages" of materials and methods tends to understate the need for individualization when designing an educational and/or a…

Metagenomics of prebiotic and probiotic supplemented broilers gastrointestinal tract microbiome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phylogenetic investigation of communities by reconstruction of unobserved states (PICRUSt) is a recently developed computational approach for prediction of functional composition of a microbiome comparing marker gene data with a reference genome database. The procedure established significant link ...

The co-evolution of networks and prisoner’s dilemma game by considering sensitivity and visibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dandan; Ma, Jing; Han, Dun; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-03-01

Strategies adopted by individuals in a social network significantly impact the network, and they strongly affect relationships between individuals in the network. Links between individuals also heavily influence their levels of cooperation. Taking into account the evolution of each individual’s connection, we explore how sensitivity and visibility affect the prisoner’s dilemma game. The so-called ‘sensitivity’ and ‘visibility’ respectively present one’s self-protection consciousness and the ability of gaining information. We find that at moderate levels of player sensitivity cooperative behavior increases, but that at high levels it is inhibited. We also find that the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals at the end of the game is higher when sensitivity and visibility are increased, but that the successful-defection-payoff has less impact on the weight of individuals and on the relationship between the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals and the density of cooperators. This framework can be used to clarify the interaction mechanism between the micro-level of individual behavior and the macro-level of individual co-evolutionary processes.

The co-evolution of networks and prisoner’s dilemma game by considering sensitivity and visibility

PubMed Central

Li, Dandan; Ma, Jing; Han, Dun; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Strategies adopted by individuals in a social network significantly impact the network, and they strongly affect relationships between individuals in the network. Links between individuals also heavily influence their levels of cooperation. Taking into account the evolution of each individual’s connection, we explore how sensitivity and visibility affect the prisoner’s dilemma game. The so-called ‘sensitivity’ and ‘visibility’ respectively present one’s self-protection consciousness and the ability of gaining information. We find that at moderate levels of player sensitivity cooperative behavior increases, but that at high levels it is inhibited. We also find that the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals at the end of the game is higher when sensitivity and visibility are increased, but that the successful-defection-payoff has less impact on the weight of individuals and on the relationship between the heterogeneity of the weight of individuals and the density of cooperators. This framework can be used to clarify the interaction mechanism between the micro-level of individual behavior and the macro-level of individual co-evolutionary processes. PMID:28338070

Molecular and cellular heterogeneity: the hallmark of glioblastoma.

PubMed

Aum, Diane J; Kim, David H; Beaumont, Thomas L; Leuthardt, Eric C; Dunn, Gavin P; Kim, Albert H

2014-12-01

There has been increasing awareness that glioblastoma, which may seem histopathologically similar across many tumors, actually represents a group of molecularly distinct tumors. Emerging evidence suggests that cells even within the same tumor exhibit wide-ranging molecular diversity. Parallel to the discoveries of molecular heterogeneity among tumors and their individual cells, intense investigation of the cellular biology of glioblastoma has revealed that not all cancer cells within a given tumor behave the same. The identification of a subpopulation of brain tumor cells termed "glioblastoma cancer stem cells" or "tumor-initiating cells" has implications for the management of glioblastoma. This focused review will therefore summarize emerging concepts on the molecular and cellular heterogeneity of glioblastoma and emphasize that we should begin to consider each individual glioblastoma to be an ensemble of molecularly distinct subclones that reflect a spectrum of dynamic cell states.

Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Y.; Pastor-Satorras, R.; Vespignani, A.

2002-04-01

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study for the spreading of infections with acquired immunity in complex population networks. We show that the large connectivity fluctuations usually found in these networks strengthen considerably the incidence of epidemic outbreaks. Scale-free networks, which are characterized by diverging connectivity fluctuations in the limit of a very large number of nodes, exhibit the lack of an epidemic threshold and always show a finite fraction of infected individuals. This particular weakness, observed also in models without immunity, defines a new epidemiological framework characterized by a highly heterogeneous response of the system to the introduction of infected individuals with different connectivity. The understanding of epidemics in complex networks might deliver new insights in the spread of information and diseases in biological and technological networks that often appear to be characterized by complex heterogeneous architectures.

Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

PubMed Central

Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

2016-01-01

Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

Genetic vulnerability to diabetes and obesity: does education offset the risk?

PubMed

Liu, S Y; Walter, S; Marden, J; Rehkopf, D H; Kubzansky, L D; Nguyen, T; Glymour, M M

2015-02-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity has recently increased dramatically. These common diseases are likely to arise from the interaction of multiple genetic, socio-demographic and environmental risk factors. While previous research has found genetic risk and education to be strong predictors of these diseases, few studies to date have examined their joint effects. This study investigates whether education modifies the association between genetic background and risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. Using data from non-Hispanic Whites in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, n = 8398), we tested whether education modifies genetic risk for obesity and T2D, offsetting genetic effects; whether this effect is larger for individuals who have high risk for other (unobserved) reasons, i.e., at higher quantiles of HbA1c and BMI; and whether effects differ by gender. We measured T2D risk using Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, and obesity risk using body-mass index (BMI). We constructed separate genetic risk scores (GRS) for obesity and diabetes respectively based on the most current available information on the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) confirmed as genome-wide significant predictors for BMI (29 SNPs) and diabetes risk (39 SNPs). Linear regression models with years of schooling indicate that the effect of genetic risk on HbA1c is smaller among people with more years of schooling and larger among those with less than a high school (HS) degree compared to HS degree-holders. Quantile regression models show that the GRS × education effect systematically increased along the HbA1c outcome distribution; for example the GRS × years of education interaction coefficient was -0.01 (95% CI = -0.03, 0.00) at the 10th percentile compared to -0.03 (95% CI = -0.07, 0.00) at the 90th percentile. These results suggest that education may be an important socioeconomic source of heterogeneity in responses to genetic vulnerability to T2D. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sreedharan, Priya

The sudden release of toxic contaminants that reach indoor spaces can be hazardousto building occupants. To respond effectively, the contaminant release must be quicklydetected and characterized to determine unobserved parameters, such as release locationand strength. Characterizing the release requires solving an inverse problem. Designinga robust real-time sensor system that solves the inverse problem is challenging becausethe fate and transport of contaminants is complex, sensor information is limited andimperfect, and real-time estimation is computationally constrained.This dissertation uses a system-level approach, based on a Bayes Monte Carloframework, to develop sensor-system design concepts and methods. I describe threeinvestigations that explore complex relationships amongmore » sensors, network architecture,interpretation algorithms, and system performance. The investigations use data obtainedfrom tracer gas experiments conducted in a real building. The influence of individual sensor characteristics on the sensor-system performance for binary-type contaminant sensors is analyzed. Performance tradeoffs among sensor accuracy, threshold level and response time are identified; these attributes could not be inferred without a system-level analysis. For example, more accurate but slower sensors are found to outperform less accurate but faster sensors. Secondly, I investigate how the sensor-system performance can be understood in terms of contaminant transport processes and the model representation that is used to solve the inverse problem. The determination of release location and mass are shown to be related to and constrained by transport and mixing time scales. These time scales explain performance differences among different sensor networks. For example, the effect of longer sensor response times is comparably less for releases with longer mixing time scales. The third investigation explores how information fusion from heterogeneous sensors may improve the sensor-system performance and offset the need for more contaminant sensors. Physics- and algorithm-based frameworks are presented for selecting and fusing information from noncontaminant sensors. The frameworks are demonstrated with door-position sensors, which are found to be more useful in natural airflow conditions, but which cannot compensate for poor placement of contaminant sensors. The concepts and empirical findings have the potential to help in the design of sensor systems for more complex building systems. The research has broader relevance to additional environmental monitoring problems, fault detection and diagnostics, and system design.« less

The interplay between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles.

PubMed

Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A; Mafe, Salvador

2014-10-06

The interplay between cooperativity and diversity is crucial for biological ensembles because single molecule experiments show a significant degree of heterogeneity and also for artificial nanostructures because of the high individual variability characteristic of nanoscale units. We study the cross-effects between cooperativity and diversity in model threshold ensembles composed of individually different units that show a cooperative behaviour. The units are modelled as statistical distributions of parameters (the individual threshold potentials here) characterized by central and width distribution values. The simulations show that the interplay between cooperativity and diversity results in ensemble-averaged responses of interest for the understanding of electrical transduction in cell membranes, the experimental characterization of heterogeneous groups of biomolecules and the development of biologically inspired engineering designs with individually different building blocks. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Resource competition induces heterogeneity and can increase cohort survivorship: selection-event duration matters.

PubMed

Gosselin, Jennifer L; Anderson, James J

2013-12-01

Determining when resource competition increases survivorship can reveal processes underlying population dynamics and reinforce the importance of heterogeneity among individuals in conservation. We ran an experiment mimicking the effects of competition in a growing season on survivorship during a selection event (e.g., overwinter starvation, drought). Using a model fish species (Poecilia reticulata), we studied how food availability and competition affect mass in a treatment stage, and subsequently survivorship in a challenge stage of increased temperature and starvation. The post-treatment mean mass was strongly related to the mean time to mortality and mass at mortality at all levels of competition. However, competition increased variance in mass and extended the right tail of the survivorship curve, resulting in a greater number of individuals alive beyond a critical temporal threshold ([Formula: see text]) than without competition. To realize the benefits from previously experienced competition, the duration of the challenge ([Formula: see text]) following the competition must exceed the critical threshold [Formula: see text] (i.e., competition increases survivorship when [Formula: see text]). Furthermore, this benefit was equivalent to increasing food availability by 20 % in a group without competition in our experiment. The relationship of [Formula: see text] to treatment and challenge conditions was modeled by characterizing mortality through mass loss in terms of the stochastic rate of loss of vitality (individual's survival capacity). In essence, when the duration of a selection event exceeds [Formula: see text], competition-induced heterogeneity buffers against mortality through overcompensation processes among individuals of a cohort. Overall, our study demonstrates an approach to quantify how early life stage heterogeneity affects survivorship.

Relationships between infant mortality, birth spacing and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed

van Soest, Arthur; Saha, Unnati Rani

2018-01-01

Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning.

Information on center characteristics as costs' determinants in multicenter clinical trials: is modeling center effect worth the effort?

PubMed

Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva; Desideri, Alessandro; Bigi, Riccardo; Ghidina, Marco; Ferrando, Alberto; Cortigiani, Lauro; Merletti, Franco; Gregori, Dario

2009-01-01

Several methodological problems arise when health outcomes and resource utilization are collected at different sites. To avoid misleading conclusions in multi-center economic evaluations the center effect needs to be taken into adequate consideration. The aim of this article is to compare several models, which make use of a different amount of information about the enrolling center. To model the association of total medical costs with the levels of two sets of covariates, one at patient and one at center level, we considered four statistical models, based on the Gamma model in the class of the Generalized Linear Models with a log link, which use different amount of information on the enrolling centers. Models were applied to Cost of Strategies after Myocardial Infarction data, an international randomized trial on costs of uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The simple center effect adjustment based on a single random effect results in a more conservative estimation of the parameters as compared with approaches which make use of deeper information on the centers characteristics. This study shows, with reference to a real multicenter trial, that center information cannot be neglected and should be collected and inserted in the analysis, better in combination with one or more random effect, taking into account in this way also the heterogeneity among centers because of unobserved centers characteristics.

Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes*

PubMed Central

Karaivanov, Alexander; Townsend, Robert M.

2014-01-01

We formulate and solve a range of dynamic models of constrained credit/insurance that allow for moral hazard and limited commitment. We compare them to full insurance and exogenously incomplete financial regimes (autarky, saving only, borrowing and lending in a single asset). We develop computational methods based on mechanism design, linear programming, and maximum likelihood to estimate, compare, and statistically test these alternative dynamic models with financial/information constraints. Our methods can use both cross-sectional and panel data and allow for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate the models using data on Thai households running small businesses from two separate samples. We find that in the rural sample, the exogenously incomplete saving only and borrowing regimes provide the best fit using data on consumption, business assets, investment, and income. Family and other networks help consumption smoothing there, as in a moral hazard constrained regime. In contrast, in urban areas, we find mechanism design financial/information regimes that are decidedly less constrained, with the moral hazard model fitting best combined business and consumption data. We perform numerous robustness checks in both the Thai data and in Monte Carlo simulations and compare our maximum likelihood criterion with results from other metrics and data not used in the estimation. A prototypical counterfactual policy evaluation exercise using the estimation results is also featured. PMID:25246710

A country for old men? Long-term home care utilization in Europe.

PubMed

Balia, Silvia; Brau, Rinaldo

2014-10-01

This paper investigates long-term home care utilization in Europe. Data from the first wave of the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE) on formal (nursing care and paid domestic help) and informal care (support provided by relatives) are used to study the probability and the quantity of both types of care. The overall process is framed in a fully simultaneous equation system that takes the form of a bivariate two-part model where the reciprocal interaction between formal and informal care is estimated. Endogeneity and unobservable heterogeneity are addressed using a common latent factor approach. The analysis of the relative impact of age and disability on home care utilization is enriched by the use of a proximity to death (PtD) indicator built using the second wave of SHARE. All these indicators are important predictors of home care utilization. In particular, a strong significant effect of PtD is found in the paid domestic help and informal care models. The relationship between formal and informal care moves from substitutability to complementarity depending on the type of care considered, and the estimated effects are small in absolute size. This might call for a reconsideration of the effectiveness of incentives for informal care as instruments to reduce public expenditure for home care services. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationships between infant mortality, birth spacing and fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

van Soest, Arthur

2018-01-01

Although research on the fertility response to childhood mortality is widespread in demographic literature, very few studies focused on the two-way causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility. Understanding the nature of such relationships is important in order to design effective policies to reduce child mortality and improve family planning. In this study, we use dynamic panel data techniques to analyse the causal effects of infant mortality on birth intervals and fertility, as well as the causal effects of birth intervals on mortality in rural Bangladesh, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Simulations based upon the estimated model show whether (and to what extent) mortality and fertility can be reduced by breaking the causal links between short birth intervals and infant mortality. We find a replacement effect of infant mortality on total fertility of about 0.54 children for each infant death in the comparison area with standard health services. Eliminating the replacement effect would lengthen birth intervals and reduce the total number of births, resulting in a fall in mortality by 2.45 children per 1000 live births. These effects are much smaller in the treatment area with extensive health services and information on family planning, where infant mortality is smaller, birth intervals are longer, and total fertility is lower. In both areas, we find evidence of boy preference in family planning. PMID:29702692

When Does Time Matter? Maternal Employment, Children's Time With Parents, and Child Development

PubMed Central

Hsin, Amy; Felfe, Christina

2016-01-01

This study tests the two assumptions underlying popularly held notions that maternal employment negatively affects children because it reduces time spent with parents: (1) that maternal employment reduces children's time with parents, and (2) that time with parents affects child outcomes. We analyze children's time-diary data from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and use child fixed-effects and IV estimations to account for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that working mothers trade quantity of time for better “quality” of time. On average, maternal work has no effect on time in activities that positively influence children's development, but it reduces time in types of activities that may be detrimental to children's development. Stratification by mothers’ education reveals that although all children, regardless of mother's education, benefit from spending educational and structured time with their mothers, mothers who are high school graduates have the greatest difficulty balancing work and childcare. We find some evidence that fathers compensate for maternal employment by increasing types of activities that can foster child development as well as types of activities that may be detrimental. Overall, we find that the effects of maternal employment are ambiguous because (1) employment does not necessarily reduce children's time with parents, and (2) not all types of parental time benefit child development. PMID:25280840

Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Susana; Ghimire, Ramesh

2012-08-01

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human-flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

Food insecurity and child behavior problems in fragile families.

PubMed

King, Christian

2018-02-01

Food insecurity remains a persistent problem in the United States. Several studies have shown that food insecurity is associated with child externalizing and internalizing behavior problems. However, some potential methodological limitations remain. For example, most studies use a household measure of food insecurity while there is evidence that children, especially younger ones, tend to be shielded by their parents from experiencing food insecurity. In addition, the mechanisms through which food insecurity affects children are not well understood. This study uses longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to address these limitations. Fixed-effects models show that the association is even larger using a measure of child food insecurity instead of a household one. Correlated-random effects models show a large difference in child behavior problems between food secure and food insecure children due to unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, the association between child food insecurity and child externalizing behaviors remains largely unexplained while food insecurity among adults explains almost all the variation in the association with child internalizing behaviors. Food insecure children and parents are at risk of micronutrient deficiencies, which may lead to behavior problems in young children. These findings underscore the need for greater focus on reducing the risk of food insecurity, especially for children in fragile families, in order to reduce behavior problems and improve their educational attainment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Choice of reserve capacity by hospitals: a problem for prospective payment.

PubMed

Widmer, Philippe K; Trottmann, Maria; Zweifel, Peter

2018-06-01

This contribution analyzes the impact of prospective payment on hospital decisions with regard to reserve capacity, using Swiss hospital data covering the years 2004-2009. This data set is unique because it permits distinguishing of institutional characteristics (e.g., ownership status) from the mode of payment as determinants of hospital efficiency, due to the fact that some Swiss cantons introduced prospective payment early while others waited for federal legislation to be enacted in 2012. Since a hospital's choice of reserve capacity depends also on the risk preferences of management while affecting the cost function, heterogeneity is predicted even in the presence of identical technology and factor prices. For estimating hospitals' marginal costs, we employ the flexible representation of risk preferences by Pope and Chavas [Am J Agric Econ 76, 196-204 (1994)]. Production uncertainty is measured as the difference between actual admissions and admissions predicted by an autoregressive moving average model. Its effect on hospital cost is analyzed using a multilevel stochastic cost frontier model with random coefficients reflecting unobserved differences in technology. Public hospitals are found to opt for a higher probability of meeting unexpected demand, as predicted. Their operating cost is 1.1% higher than for private hospitals and even 1.9% higher than for teaching hospitals, creating an incentive to turn away patients or to keep them waiting for treatment.

The impact of kin availability, parental religiosity, and nativity on fertility differentials in the late 19th-century United States

PubMed Central

Hacker, J. David; Roberts, Evan

2017-01-01

METHODS Most quantitative research on fertility decline in the United States ignores the potential impact of cultural and familial factors. We rely on new complete-count data from the 1880 U.S. census to construct couple-level measures of nativity/ethnicity, religiosity, and kin availability. We include these measures with a comprehensive set of demographic, economic, and contextual variables in Poisson regression models of net marital fertility to assess their relative importance. We construct models with and without area fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. CONTRIBUTION All else being equal, we find a strong impact of nativity on recent net marital fertility. Fertility differentials among second generation couples relative to the native-born white population of native parentage were in most cases less than half of the differential observed among first generation immigrants, suggesting greater assimilation to native-born American childbearing norms. Our measures of parental religiosity and familial propinquity indicated a more modest impact on marital fertility. Couples who chose biblical names for their children had approximately 3% more children than couples relying on secular names while the presence of a potential mother-in-law in a nearby households was associated with 2% more children. Overall, our results demonstrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility behavior that include cultural and familial covariates. PMID:29720893

The impact of kin availability, parental religiosity, and nativity on fertility differentials in the late 19th-century United States.

PubMed

Hacker, J David; Roberts, Evan

2017-12-01

Most quantitative research on fertility decline in the United States ignores the potential impact of cultural and familial factors. We rely on new complete-count data from the 1880 U.S. census to construct couple-level measures of nativity/ethnicity, religiosity, and kin availability. We include these measures with a comprehensive set of demographic, economic, and contextual variables in Poisson regression models of net marital fertility to assess their relative importance. We construct models with and without area fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. All else being equal, we find a strong impact of nativity on recent net marital fertility. Fertility differentials among second generation couples relative to the native-born white population of native parentage were in most cases less than half of the differential observed among first generation immigrants, suggesting greater assimilation to native-born American childbearing norms. Our measures of parental religiosity and familial propinquity indicated a more modest impact on marital fertility. Couples who chose biblical names for their children had approximately 3% more children than couples relying on secular names while the presence of a potential mother-in-law in a nearby households was associated with 2% more children. Overall, our results demonstrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility behavior that include cultural and familial covariates.

Competition for light between individual trees lowers reference canopy stomatal conductance: Results from a model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, Michael M.; Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Traver, Elizabeth; Kruger, Eric L.

2010-12-01

We have used an ecosystem model, TREES (Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator), to test the hypothesis that competition for light limits reference canopy stomatal conductance (GSref; conductance at 1 kPa vapor pressure deficit) for individual tree crowns. Sap flux (JS) data was collected at an aspen-dominated unmanaged early successional site, and at a sugar maple dominated midsuccessional site managed for timber production. Using a Monte Carlo approach, JS scaled canopy transpiration (EC) estimates were used to parameterize two versions of the model for each tree individually; a control model treated trees as isolated individuals, and a modified version incorporated the shading effects of neighboring individuals on incident radiation. Agreement between simulated and observed EC was better for maple than for aspen using the control model. Accounting for canopy heterogeneity using a three-dimensional canopy representation had minimal effects on estimates of GSref or model performance for individual maples. At the Aspen site the modified model resulted in improved EC estimates, particularly for trees with lower GSref and more shading by neighboring individuals. Our results imply a link between photosynthetic capacity, as mediated by competitive light environment, and GSref. We conclude that accounting for the effects of canopy heterogeneity on incident radiation improves modeled estimates of canopy carbon and water fluxes, especially for shade intolerant species. Furthermore our results imply a link between ecosystem structure and function that may be exploited to elucidate the impacts of forest structural heterogeneity on ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water via LiDAR remote sensing.

Heterogeneity of neuroanatomical patterns in prodromal Alzheimer's disease: links to cognition, progression and biomarkers.

PubMed

Dong, Aoyan; Toledo, Jon B; Honnorat, Nicolas; Doshi, Jimit; Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Wolk, David; Trojanowski, John Q; Davatzikos, Christos

2017-03-01

See Coulthard and Knight (doi:10.1093/aww335) for a scientific commentary on this article.Individuals with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease clinical diagnoses can display significant phenotypic heterogeneity. This variability likely reflects underlying genetic, environmental and neuropathological differences. Characterizing this heterogeneity is important for precision diagnostics, personalized predictions, and recruitment of relatively homogeneous sets of patients into clinical trials. In this study, we apply state-of-the-art semi-supervised machine learning methods to the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging cohort (ADNI) to elucidate the heterogeneity of neuroanatomical differences between subjects with mild cognitive impairment (n = 530) and Alzheimer's disease (n = 314) and cognitively normal individuals (n = 399), thereby adding to an increasing literature aiming to establish neuroanatomical and neuropathological (e.g. amyloid and tau deposition) dimensions in Alzheimer's disease and its prodromal stages. These dimensional approaches aim to provide surrogate measures of heterogeneous underlying pathologic processes leading to cognitive impairment. We relate these neuroimaging patterns to cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, white matter hyperintensities, cognitive and clinical measures, and longitudinal trajectories. We identified four such atrophy patterns: (i) individuals with largely normal neuroanatomical profiles, who also turned out to have the least abnormal cognitive and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker profiles and the slowest clinical progression during follow-up; (ii) individuals with classical Alzheimer's disease neuroanatomical, cognitive, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers and clinical profile, who presented the fastest clinical progression; (iii) individuals with a diffuse pattern of atrophy with relatively less pronounced involvement of the medial temporal lobe, abnormal cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-β1-42 values, and proportionally greater executive impairment; and (iv) individuals with notably focal involvement of the medial temporal lobe and a slow steady progression, likely representing in early Alzheimer's disease stages. These four atrophy patterns effectively define a 4-dimensional categorization of neuroanatomical alterations in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease that can complement existing dimensional approaches for staging Alzheimer's disease using a variety of biomarkers, which offer the potential for enabling precision diagnostics and prognostics, as well as targeted patient recruitment of relatively homogeneous subgroups of subjects for clinical trials. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure, and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants for understanding and predicting their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the analytical solutions of random distributions of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and is suitable for ecological models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change.

Ethnicity-Dependent and -Independent Heterogeneity in Healthy Normal Breast Hierarchy Impacts Tumor Characterization

PubMed Central

Nakshatri, Harikrishna; Anjanappa, Manjushree; Bhat-Nakshatri, Poornima

2015-01-01

Recent reports of widespread genetic variation affecting regulation of gene expression raise the possibility of significant inter-individual differences in stem-progenitor-mature cell hierarchy in adult organs. This has not been explored because of paucity of methods to quantitatively assess subpopulation of normal epithelial cells on individual basis. We report the remarkable inter-individual differences in differentiation capabilities as documented by phenotypic heterogeneity in stem-progenitor-mature cell hierarchy of the normal breast. Ethnicity and genetic predisposition are partly responsible for this heterogeneity, evidenced by the finding that CD44+/CD24- and PROCR+/EpCAM- multi-potent stem cells were elevated significantly in African American women compared with Caucasians. ALDEFLUOR+ luminal stem/progenitor cells were lower in BRCA1-mutation carriers compared with cells from healthy donors (p = 0.0014). Moreover, tumor and adjoining-normal breast cells of the same patients showed distinct CD49f+/EpCAM+ progenitor, CD271+/EpCAM- basal, and ALDEFLUOR+ cell profiles. These inter-individual differences in the rate of differentiation in the normal breast may contribute to a substantial proportion of transcriptome, epigenome, and signaling pathway alterations and consequently has the potential to spuriously magnify the extent of documented tumor-specific gene expression. Therefore, comparative analysis of phenotypically defined subpopulations of normal and tumor cells on an individual basis may be required to identify cancer-specific aberrations. PMID:26311223

Ethnicity-Dependent and -Independent Heterogeneity in Healthy Normal Breast Hierarchy Impacts Tumor Characterization.

PubMed

Nakshatri, Harikrishna; Anjanappa, Manjushree; Bhat-Nakshatri, Poornima

2015-08-27

Recent reports of widespread genetic variation affecting regulation of gene expression raise the possibility of significant inter-individual differences in stem-progenitor-mature cell hierarchy in adult organs. This has not been explored because of paucity of methods to quantitatively assess subpopulation of normal epithelial cells on individual basis. We report the remarkable inter-individual differences in differentiation capabilities as documented by phenotypic heterogeneity in stem-progenitor-mature cell hierarchy of the normal breast. Ethnicity and genetic predisposition are partly responsible for this heterogeneity, evidenced by the finding that CD44+/CD24- and PROCR+/EpCAM- multi-potent stem cells were elevated significantly in African American women compared with Caucasians. ALDEFLUOR+ luminal stem/progenitor cells were lower in BRCA1-mutation carriers compared with cells from healthy donors (p = 0.0014). Moreover, tumor and adjoining-normal breast cells of the same patients showed distinct CD49f+/EpCAM+ progenitor, CD271+/EpCAM- basal, and ALDEFLUOR+ cell profiles. These inter-individual differences in the rate of differentiation in the normal breast may contribute to a substantial proportion of transcriptome, epigenome, and signaling pathway alterations and consequently has the potential to spuriously magnify the extent of documented tumor-specific gene expression. Therefore, comparative analysis of phenotypically defined subpopulations of normal and tumor cells on an individual basis may be required to identify cancer-specific aberrations.

Noise and Epigenetic Inheritance of Single-Cell Division Times Influence Population Fitness.

PubMed

Cerulus, Bram; New, Aaron M; Pougach, Ksenia; Verstrepen, Kevin J

2016-05-09

The fitness effect of biological noise remains unclear. For example, even within clonal microbial populations, individual cells grow at different speeds. Although it is known that the individuals' mean growth speed can affect population-level fitness, it is unclear how or whether growth speed heterogeneity itself is subject to natural selection. Here, we show that noisy single-cell division times can significantly affect population-level growth rate. Using time-lapse microscopy to measure the division times of thousands of individual S. cerevisiae cells across different genetic and environmental backgrounds, we find that the length of individual cells' division times can vary substantially between clonal individuals and that sublineages often show epigenetic inheritance of division times. By combining these experimental measurements with mathematical modeling, we find that, for a given mean division time, increasing heterogeneity and epigenetic inheritance of division times increases the population growth rate. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity and epigenetic inheritance of single-cell division times can be linked with variation in the expression of catabolic genes. Taken together, our results reveal how a change in noisy single-cell behaviors can directly influence fitness through dynamics that operate independently of effects caused by changes to the mean. These results not only allow a better understanding of microbial fitness but also help to more accurately predict fitness in other clonal populations, such as tumors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical Heterogeneity in Patients with the Hypermobility Type of Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Wandele, Inge; Rombaut, Lies; Malfait, Fransiska; De Backer, Tine; De Paepe, Anne; Calders, Patrick

2013-01-01

EDS-HT is a connective tissue disorder characterized by large inter-individual differences in the clinical presentation, complicating diagnosis and treatment. We aim to describe the clinical heterogeneity and to investigate whether differences in the symptom profile are also reflected as disparity in functional impairment and pain experience. In…

International Group Heterogeneity and Students' Business Project Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Ning; Bosker, Roel J.; Xu, Xiaoyan; Rugers, Lucie; van Heugten, Petra PAM

2015-01-01

In business higher education, group project work plays an essential role. The purpose of the present study is to explore the relationship between the group heterogeneity of students' business project groups and their academic achievements at both group and individual levels. The sample consists of 536 freshmen from an International Business School…

Nucleosynthetic and Mass-Dependent Titanium Isotope Variations in Individual Chondrules of Ordinary Chondrites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schönbächler, M.; Bauer, K. K.; Fehr, M. A.; Chaumard, N.; Zanda, B.

2017-02-01

We present evidence for nucleosynthetic Ti isotope heterogeneity between individual chondrules of ordinary chondrites difficult to reconcile with chondrule formation from molten planetesimals. Metamorphism resulted in stable Ti isotope fractionation.

Fiber Bundle Model Under Heterogeneous Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Subhadeep; Goswami, Sanchari

2018-03-01

The present work deals with the behavior of fiber bundle model under heterogeneous loading condition. The model is explored both in the mean-field limit as well as with local stress concentration. In the mean field limit, the failure abruptness decreases with increasing order k of heterogeneous loading. In this limit, a brittle to quasi-brittle transition is observed at a particular strength of disorder which changes with k. On the other hand, the model is hardly affected by such heterogeneity in the limit where local stress concentration plays a crucial role. The continuous limit of the heterogeneous loading is also studied and discussed in this paper. Some of the important results related to fiber bundle model are reviewed and their responses to our new scheme of heterogeneous loading are studied in details. Our findings are universal with respect to the nature of the threshold distribution adopted to assign strength to an individual fiber.

Heterogeneous database integration in biomedicine.

PubMed

Sujansky, W

2001-08-01

The rapid expansion of biomedical knowledge, reduction in computing costs, and spread of internet access have created an ocean of electronic data. The decentralized nature of our scientific community and healthcare system, however, has resulted in a patchwork of diverse, or heterogeneous, database implementations, making access to and aggregation of data across databases very difficult. The database heterogeneity problem applies equally to clinical data describing individual patients and biological data characterizing our genome. Specifically, databases are highly heterogeneous with respect to the data models they employ, the data schemas they specify, the query languages they support, and the terminologies they recognize. Heterogeneous database systems attempt to unify disparate databases by providing uniform conceptual schemas that resolve representational heterogeneities, and by providing querying capabilities that aggregate and integrate distributed data. Research in this area has applied a variety of database and knowledge-based techniques, including semantic data modeling, ontology definition, query translation, query optimization, and terminology mapping. Existing systems have addressed heterogeneous database integration in the realms of molecular biology, hospital information systems, and application portability.

Contagion on complex networks with persuasion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei-Min; Zhang, Li-Jie; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2016-03-01

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense.

Contagion on complex networks with persuasion

PubMed Central

Huang, Wei-Min; Zhang, Li-Jie; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2016-01-01

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense. PMID:27029498

Contagion on complex networks with persuasion.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Min; Zhang, Li-Jie; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2016-03-31

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense.

The association between exposure to environmental factors and the occurrence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). A population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Saez, Marc; Barceló, Maria A; Farrerons, Mònica; López-Casasnovas, Guillem

2018-06-08

A number of factors contribute to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and although they are not fully known, the occurrence of ADHD seems to be a consequence of an interaction between multiple genetic and environmental factors. However, apart from pesticides, the evidence is inadequate and inconsistent as it differs not only in the population and time period analysed, but also in the type of study, the control of the confounding variables and the statistical methods used. In the latter case, the studies also differ in the adjustment of spatial and temporal variability. Our objective here, is to provide evidence on an association between environmental factors and ADHD. In our study, we used a population-based retrospective cohort in which we matched cases and controls (children free of the disease) by sex and year of birth (n = 5193, 78.9% boys). The cases were children born between 1998 and 2012 and diagnosed with ADHD (n = 116). To evaluate whether there was a geographical pattern in the incidence of ADHD, we first represented the smoothed standardized incidence rates on a map of the region being studied. We then estimated the probability of being a case by using a generalized liner mixed model with a binomial link. As explanatory variables of interest, we included the following environmental variables: distance to agricultural areas, distance to roads (stratified into three categories according to traffic density and intensity), distance to petrol stations, distance to industrial estates, and land use. We control for both observed (individual and family specific variables and deprivation index) and unobserved confounders (in particular, individual and familial heterogeneity). In addition, we adjusted for spatial extra variability. We found a north-south pattern containing two clusters (one in the centre of the study region and another in the south) in relation to the risk of developing ADHD. The results from the multivariate model suggest that these clusters could be related to some of the environmental variables. Specifically, living within 100 m from an agricultural area or a residential street and/or living fewer than 300 m from a motorway, dual carriageway or one of the industrial estates analysed was associated (statistically significant) with an increased risk of ADHD. Our results indicate that some environmental factors could be associated with ADHD occurring, particularly those associated with exposure to pesticides, organochlorine compounds and air pollutants because of traffic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking transcriptional and genetic tumor heterogeneity through allele analysis of single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Fan, Jean; Lee, Hae-Ock; Lee, Soohyun; Ryu, Da-Eun; Lee, Semin; Xue, Catherine; Kim, Seok Jin; Kim, Kihyun; Barkas, Nikolas; Park, Peter J; Park, Woong-Yang; Kharchenko, Peter V

2018-06-13

Characterization of intratumoral heterogeneity is critical to cancer therapy, as presence of phenotypically diverse cell populations commonly fuels relapse and resistance to treatment. Although genetic variation is a well-studied source of intratumoral heterogeneity, the functional impact of most genetic alterations remains unclear. Even less understood is the relative importance of other factors influencing heterogeneity, such as epigenetic state or tumor microenvironment. To investigate the relationship between genetic and transcriptional heterogeneity in a context of cancer progression, we devised a computational approach called HoneyBADGER to identify copy number variation and loss-of-heterozygosity in individual cells from single-cell RNA-sequencing data. By integrating allele and normalized expression information, HoneyBADGER is able to identify and infer the presence of subclone-specific alterations in individual cells and reconstruct underlying subclonal architecture. Examining several tumor types, we show that HoneyBADGER is effective at identifying deletion, amplifications, and copy-neutral loss-of-heterozygosity events, and is capable of robustly identifying subclonal focal alterations as small as 10 megabases. We further apply HoneyBADGER to analyze single cells from a progressive multiple myeloma patient to identify major genetic subclones that exhibit distinct transcriptional signatures relevant to cancer progression. Surprisingly, other prominent transcriptional subpopulations within these tumors did not line up with the genetic subclonal structure, and were likely driven by alternative, non-clonal mechanisms. These results highlight the need for integrative analysis to understand the molecular and phenotypic heterogeneity in cancer. Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission

PubMed Central

Perkins, T. Alex; Scott, Thomas W.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Smith, David L.

2013-01-01

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data. PMID:24348223

Does gender contribute to heterogeneity in criteria for cannabis abuse and dependence? Results from the national epidemiological survey on alcohol and related conditions.

PubMed

Agrawal, Arpana; Lynskey, Michael T

2007-05-11

Previous research has noted that a unidimensional latent construct underlies criteria for cannabis abuse and dependence. However, no study to date has explored whether gender contributes to heterogeneity in the latent abuse and dependence construct and furthermore, whether after accounting for differences in the mean scores of abuse and dependence across genders, there is any evidence for heterogeneity in the individual abuse and dependence criteria. The present study utilizes data on criteria for cannabis abuse and dependence from a large, nationally representative sample (National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions) of 8172 lifetime cannabis users to investigate whether gender contributes to heterogeneity in the underlying construct of cannabis abuse and dependence, and in each individual criterion as well. Analyses, all of which were conducted in MPlus, included factor analysis, as well as MIMIC and multiple-group models for an examination of dimensionality and gender heterogeneity, respectively. Results favor a unidimensional construct for cannabis abuse/dependence, as seen in prior research. We also identify two abuse (legal and hazard) and two dependence (quit and problems) criteria, which show significant gender heterogeneity with the abuse criteria exhibiting higher thresholds in women and the dependence criteria in men. We conclude that the criteria that serve as indicators of DSM-IV cannabis abuse and dependence do not function identically in men and women and that certain criteria (e.g. hazardous use) require further refinement.

Evidence of intermetastatic heterogeneity for pathological response and genetic mutations within colorectal liver metastases following preoperative chemotherapy.

PubMed

Sebagh, Mylène; Allard, Marc-Antoine; Bosselut, Nelly; Dao, Myriam; Vibert, Eric; Lewin, Maïté; Lemoine, Antoinette; Cherqui, Daniel; Adam, René; Sa Cunha, Antonio

2016-04-19

In patients receiving preoperative chemotherapy, colorectal liver metastases (CLM) are expected to demonstrate a similar behaviour because of similar organ microenvironment and tumour cell chemosensitivity. We focused on the occurrence of pathological and genetic heterogeneity within CLM. Patients resected for multiple CLM between 2004 and 2011 after > three cycles of chemotherapy were included. Pathological heterogeneity was arbitrarily defined as a > 50% difference in the percentage of remaining tumour cells between individual CLM. In patients with pathological heterogeneity, the mutational genotyping (KRAS, NRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA) was determined from the most heterogeneous CLM. Pathological heterogeneity was observed in 31 of 157 patients with multiple CLM (median = 4, range, 2-32) (19.7%). In 72.4% of them, we found a concordance of the mutation status between the paired CLM: both wild-type in 55%, and both mutated in 17.2%. We observed a discordance of the mutation status of 27.6% between CLM: one mutated and the other wild-type. The mutated CLM was the less florid one in 75% of patients with genetic heterogeneity. Pathological heterogeneity is present in 19.7% of patients with multiple CLM. Genetic heterogeneity is present in 27.6% of patients with pathological heterogeneity. Heterogeneity could refine guide management for tissue sampling.

Spatially explicit animal response to composition of habitat

Treesearch

Benjamin P. Pauli; Nicholas P. McCann; Patrick A. Zollner; Robert Cummings; Jonathan H. Gilbert; Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-...

Comparing Individual Instruction & Lecture Formats in Human Anatomy & Physiology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schindler, Fred H.

1989-01-01

Provides a description of and information about an individualized program in science at Central Community College. Reports on a study which compares lecture with individualized instruction. Concludes that there were no significant differences between heterogeneous groups, and there are advantages and disadvantages to each method. Diagrams and…

Examining variations in health within rural Canada.

PubMed

Lavergne, M Ruth; Kephart, George

2012-01-01

Differences in health between urban and rural areas of Canada are well documented. Canadian rural communities are remarkably heterogeneous in terms of social, economic, and geographic characteristics. There is reason to believe that there is also considerable heterogeneity in health within rural Canada but existing literature has not given this adequate consideration. This article describes heterogeneity in health along the urban-rural continuum, both between and within categories of rural areas. Factors that may explain observed variations are then examined. The study population included all adult (>18 years) respondents on the Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 1.1, linked to census subdivision-level data from the corresponding Canadian Census. Study areas were classified according to Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ), which group rural areas based on their degree of connectivity with nearby urban areas. Dichotomized Health Utilities Index (HUI) scores were the outcome variable. Random-intercept logistic regression models investigated the associations of HUI with individual and area characteristics. To describe between-area variation in health, the proportion of the total variation accounted for by the area random effect (the intra-class correlation coefficient [ICC]) was estimated. To aid interpretation of the magnitude of the effect of area relative to other variables in the models, the ICC was also expressed as a median odds ratio (MOR), or the median amount by which the probability of disability will change for an individual who moves from one area to another. On a descriptive level, poorer health was observed in more remote rural areas, but the size of estimated effects for categories of rural areas was generally small compared with effects of other individual and area variables, and with the degree of heterogeneity between areas. The composition of rural areas is important in order to understand patterns in health. Individual income, education, and employment, and area characteristics such as Francophone or Aboriginal populations, and migration patterns help explain the gradient in health by MIZ, but considerable heterogeneity in health within categories of MIZ remains. In models stratified by MIZ, significant between-area heterogeneity was observed in all models, with MORs ranging from 1.18 to 1.53. It was observed that heterogeneity in health among rural areas is substantial, and generally larger than the effect of rurality, itself, on health. More attention is needed to understand the characteristics of Canada's heterogeneous rural communities, and the different processes by which disparities in health emerge and persist. The findings suggest that a focus on rurality alone, emphasizing urban versus rural disparities, or even continuum-based approaches like MIZ, may be less informative than finding ways to classify and examine different types of rural areas according to factors relevant to health.

Scaffolding Learning from Molecular Visualizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Hsin-Yi; Linn, Marcia C.

2013-01-01

Powerful online visualizations can make unobservable scientific phenomena visible and improve student understanding. Instead, they often confuse or mislead students. To clarify the impact of molecular visualizations for middle school students we explored three design variations implemented in a Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE) unit on…

Supporting Students' Knowledge Integration with Technology-Enhanced Inquiry Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiu, Jennifer Lopseen

2010-01-01

Dynamic visualizations of scientific phenomena have the potential to transform how students learn and understand science. Dynamic visualizations enable interaction and experimentation with unobservable atomic-level phenomena. A series of studies clarify the conditions under which embedding dynamic visualizations in technology-enhanced inquiry…

Techniques and Practices in the Training of Digital Operator Skills

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

changes in environmental stimuli. Early behaviorists strongly opposed the study of any sort of mental event, but more recent behaviorists like Albert ... Bandura and Edward Tolman recognized that processes like vicarious learning and latent learning could not be explained unless some unobservable

Does College Influence Sociopolitical Attitudes?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Colin; Horowitz, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Past research shows a statistically significant relationship between college completion and sociopolitical attitudes. However, recent scholarship suggests the effects of college on social outcomes may be confounded with unobserved family background. In this study, we leverage the shared family and social background of siblings to better identify…

Dipole response of 76Se above 4 MeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, P. M.; Cooper, N.; Werner, V.; Rusev, G.; Stevenson, P. D.; Rios, A.; Bernards, C.; Chakraborty, A.; Crider, B. P.; Glorius, J.; Ilieva, R. S.; Kelley, J. H.; Kwan, E.; Peters, E. E.; Pietralla, N.; Raut, R.; Romig, C.; Savran, D.; Schnorrenberger, L.; Smith, M. K.; Sonnabend, K.; Tonchev, A. P.; Tornow, W.; Yates, S. W.

2013-12-01

The dipole response of 3476Se in the energy range from 4 to 9 MeV has been analyzed using a (γ⃗,γ') polarized photon scattering technique, performed at the High Intensity γ-Ray Source facility at Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, to complement previous work performed using unpolarized photons. The results of this work offer both an enhanced sensitivity scan of the dipole response and an unambiguous determination of the parities of the observed J=1 states. The dipole response is found to be dominated by E1 excitations, and can reasonably be attributed to a pygmy dipole resonance. Evidence is presented to suggest that a significant amount of directly unobserved excitation strength is present in the region, due to unobserved branching transitions in the decays of resonantly excited states. The dipole response of the region is underestimated when considering only ground state decay branches. We investigate the electric dipole response theoretically, performing calculations in a three-dimensional (3D) Cartesian-basis time-dependent Skyrme-Hartree-Fock framework.

Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

PubMed

Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

2018-02-01

In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.